Comparative studies of groundwater vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maria, Rizka

2018-02-01

Pollution of groundwater is a primary issue because aquifers are susceptible to contamination from land use and anthropogenic impacts. Groundwater susceptibility is intrinsic and specific. Intrinsic vulnerability refers to an aquifer that is susceptible to pollution and to the geological and hydrogeological features. Vulnerability assessment is an essential step in assessing groundwater contamination. This approach provides a visual analysis for helping planners and decision makers to achieve the sustainable management of water resources. Comparative studies are applying different methodologies to result in the basic evaluation of the groundwater vulnerability. Based on the comparison of methods, there are several advantages and disadvantages. SI can be overlaid on DRASTIC and Pesticide DRASTIC to extract the divergence in sensitivity. DRASTIC identifies low susceptibility and underestimates the pollution risk while Pesticide DRASTIC and SI represents better risk and is recommended for the future. SINTACS method generates very high vulnerability zones with surface waters and aquifer interactions. GOD method could be adequate for vulnerability mapping in karstified carbonate aquifers at small-moderate scales, and EPIK method can be used for large scale. GOD method is suitable for designing large area such as land management while DRASTIC has good accuracy and more real use in geoenvironmental detailed studies.

Vulnerability assessment of urban ecosystems driven by water resources, human health and atmospheric environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Zhang, Yang; Song, Xinshuang; He, Li

2016-05-01

As ecosystem management is a hotspot and urgent topic with increasing population growth and resource depletion. This paper develops an urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment method representing a new vulnerability paradigm for decision makers and environmental managers, as it's an early warning system to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes in terms of natural, human, economic and social elements. The whole idea is to decompose a complex problem into sub-problem, and analyze each sub-problem, and then aggregate all sub-problems to solve this problem. This method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators, and socio-economic elements. Decision makers can find out relevant urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitude. To test the potential of the vulnerability methodology, it has been applied to a case study area in Beijing, China, where it proved to be reliable and consistent with the Beijing City Master Plan. The results of urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment can support decision makers in evaluating the necessary of taking specific measures to preserve the quality of human health and environmental stressors for a city or multiple cities, with identifying the implications and consequences of their decisions.

Effectiveness evaluation of objective and subjective weighting methods for aquifer vulnerability assessment in urban context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahoo, Madhumita; Sahoo, Satiprasad; Dhar, Anirban; Pradhan, Biswajeet

2016-10-01

Groundwater vulnerability assessment has been an accepted practice to identify the zones with relatively increased potential for groundwater contamination. DRASTIC is the most popular secondary information-based vulnerability assessment approach. Original DRASTIC approach considers relative importance of features/sub-features based on subjective weighting/rating values. However variability of features at a smaller scale is not reflected in this subjective vulnerability assessment process. In contrast to the subjective approach, the objective weighting-based methods provide flexibility in weight assignment depending on the variation of the local system. However experts' opinion is not directly considered in the objective weighting-based methods. Thus effectiveness of both subjective and objective weighting-based approaches needs to be evaluated. In the present study, three methods - Entropy information method (E-DRASTIC), Fuzzy pattern recognition method (F-DRASTIC) and Single parameter sensitivity analysis (SA-DRASTIC), were used to modify the weights of the original DRASTIC features to include local variability. Moreover, a grey incidence analysis was used to evaluate the relative performance of subjective (DRASTIC and SA-DRASTIC) and objective (E-DRASTIC and F-DRASTIC) weighting-based methods. The performance of the developed methodology was tested in an urban area of Kanpur City, India. Relative performance of the subjective and objective methods varies with the choice of water quality parameters. This methodology can be applied without/with suitable modification. These evaluations establish the potential applicability of the methodology for general vulnerability assessment in urban context.

Review Article: A comparison of flood and earthquake vulnerability assessment indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Ward, Philip J.; Daniell, James E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

2017-07-01

In a cross-disciplinary study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in the disciplines of earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative vulnerability indicators grouped into physical and social categories. Next, a selection of index- and curve-based vulnerability models that use these indicators are described, comparing several characteristics such as temporal and spatial aspects. Earthquake vulnerability methods traditionally have a strong focus on object-based physical attributes used in vulnerability curve-based models, while flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use classes in curve-based models. In assessing the differences and similarities between indicators used in earthquake and flood vulnerability models, we only include models that separately assess either of the two hazard types. Flood vulnerability studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as developing object-based physical vulnerability curve assessments and incorporating time-of-the-day-based building occupation patterns. Likewise, earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies by refining their selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies for exploring risk assessment methodologies across different hazard types.

Assessing species vulnerability to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacifici, Michela; Foden, Wendy B.; Visconti, Piero; Watson, James E. M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Scheffers, Brett R.; Hole, David G.; Martin, Tara G.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Corlett, Richard T.; Huntley, Brian; Bickford, David; Carr, Jamie A.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Midgley, Guy F.; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E.; Willis, Stephen G.; Young, Bruce; Rondinini, Carlo

2015-03-01

The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pavlickova, Katarina; Vyskupova, Monika, E-mail: vyskupova@fns.uniba.sk

Cumulative environmental impact assessment deals with the occasional use in practical application of environmental impact assessment process. The main reasons are the difficulty of cumulative impact identification caused by lack of data, inability to measure the intensity and spatial effect of all types of impacts and the uncertainty of their future evolution. This work presents a method proposal to predict cumulative impacts on the basis of landscape vulnerability evaluation. For this purpose, qualitative assessment of landscape ecological stability is conducted and major vulnerability indicators of environmental and socio-economic receptors are specified and valuated. Potential cumulative impacts and the overall impactmore » significance are predicted quantitatively in modified Argonne multiple matrixes while considering the vulnerability of affected landscape receptors and the significance of impacts identified individually. The method was employed in the concrete environmental impact assessment process conducted in Slovakia. The results obtained in this case study reflect that this methodology is simple to apply, valid for all types of impacts and projects, inexpensive and not time-consuming. The objectivity of the partial methods used in this procedure is improved by quantitative landscape ecological stability evaluation, assignment of weights to vulnerability indicators based on the detailed characteristics of affected factors, and grading impact significance. - Highlights: • This paper suggests a method proposal for cumulative impact prediction. • The method includes landscape vulnerability evaluation. • The vulnerability of affected receptors is determined by their sensitivity. • This method can increase the objectivity of impact prediction in the EIA process.« less

Volcanic risk assessment: Quantifying physical vulnerability in the built environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, S. F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Fonseca, J. F. B. D.; Solidum, R. U.; Wilson, T. M.

2014-04-01

This paper presents structured and cost-effective methods for assessing the physical vulnerability of at-risk communities to the range of volcanic hazards, developed as part of the MIA-VITA project (2009-2012). An initial assessment of building and infrastructure vulnerability has been carried out for a set of broadly defined building types and infrastructure categories, with the likelihood of damage considered separately for projectile impact, ash fall loading, pyroclastic density current dynamic pressure and earthquake ground shaking intensities. In refining these estimates for two case study areas: Kanlaon volcano in the Philippines and Fogo volcano in Cape Verde, we have developed guidelines and methodologies for carrying out physical vulnerability assessments in the field. These include identifying primary building characteristics, such as construction material and method, as well as subsidiary characteristics, for example the size and prevalence of openings, that may be important in assessing eruption impacts. At-risk buildings around Kanlaon were found to be dominated by timber frame buildings that exhibit a high vulnerability to pyroclastic density currents, but a low vulnerability to failure from seismic shaking. Around Fogo, the predominance of unreinforced masonry buildings with reinforced concrete slab roofs suggests a high vulnerability to volcanic earthquake but a low vulnerability to ash fall loading. Given the importance of agriculture for local livelihoods around Kanlaon and Fogo, we discuss the potential impact of infrastructure vulnerability for local agricultural economies, with implications for volcanic areas worldwide. These methodologies and tools go some way towards offering a standardised approach to carrying out future vulnerability assessments for populated volcanic areas.

Combining landscape variables and species traits can improve the utility of climate change vulnerability assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

2016-01-01

Conservation organizations worldwide are investing in climate change vulnerability assessments. Most vulnerability assessment methods focus on either landscape features or species traits that can affect a species vulnerability to climate change. However, landscape features and species traits likely interact to affect vulnerability. We compare a landscape-based assessment, a trait-based assessment, and an assessment that combines landscape variables and species traits for 113 species of birds, herpetofauna, and mammals in the northeastern United States. Our aim is to better understand which species traits and landscape variables have the largest influence on assessment results and which types of vulnerability assessments are most useful for different objectives. Species traits were most important for determining which species will be most vulnerable to climate change. The sensitivity of species to dispersal barriers and the species average natal dispersal distance were the most important traits. Landscape features were most important for determining where species will be most vulnerable because species were most vulnerable in areas where multiple landscape features combined to increase vulnerability, regardless of species traits. The interaction between landscape variables and species traits was important when determining how to reduce climate change vulnerability. For example, an assessment that combines information on landscape connectivity, climate change velocity, and natal dispersal distance suggests that increasing landscape connectivity may not reduce the vulnerability of many species. Assessments that include landscape features and species traits will likely be most useful in guiding conservation under climate change.

THE US EPA'S REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT PROGRAM: A RESEARCH STRATEGY FOR 2001-2006

EPA Science Inventory

The goal of ORD's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program is to develop all
approach to quantifying regional ecological vulnerabilities so that risk management activities can be targeted and prioritized. ReVA's focus is, to develop a set of methods that are applica...

Extraction of features from ultrasound acoustic emissions: a tool to assess the hydraulic vulnerability of Norway spruce trunkwood?

PubMed Central

Rosner, Sabine; Klein, Andrea; Wimmer, Rupert; Karlsson, Bo

2011-01-01

Summary • The aim of this study was to assess the hydraulic vulnerability of Norway spruce (Picea abies) trunkwood by extraction of selected features of acoustic emissions (AEs) detected during dehydration of standard size samples. • The hydraulic method was used as the reference method to assess the hydraulic vulnerability of trunkwood of different cambial ages. Vulnerability curves were constructed by plotting the percentage loss of conductivity vs an overpressure of compressed air. • Differences in hydraulic vulnerability were very pronounced between juvenile and mature wood samples; therefore, useful AE features, such as peak amplitude, duration and relative energy, could be filtered out. The AE rates of signals clustered by amplitude and duration ranges and the AE energies differed greatly between juvenile and mature wood at identical relative water losses. • Vulnerability curves could be constructed by relating the cumulated amount of relative AE energy to the relative loss of water and to xylem tension. AE testing in combination with feature extraction offers a readily automated and easy to use alternative to the hydraulic method. PMID:16771986

Study of groundwater vulnerability to pollution using the DRASTIC method coupled with a geographic information system (GIS): application to groundwater Beni Amir, Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knouz, Najat; Boudhar, Abdelghani; Bachaoui, El Mostafa

2016-04-01

Fresh water is the condition of all life on Earth for its vital role in the survival of living beings and in the social, economic and technological development. The Groundwater, as the surface water, is increasingly threatened by agricultural and industrial pollution. In this respect, the groundwater vulnerability assessment to pollution is a very valuable tool for resource protection, management of its quality and uses it in a sustainable way. The main objective of this study is the evaluation of groundwater vulnerability to pollution of the study area, Beni Amir, located in the first irrigated perimeter of Morocco, Tadla, using the DRASTIC method (depth to water, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, Topography, impact of Vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity), and assessing the impact of each parameter on the DRASTIC vulnerability index by a sensitivity analysis. This study also highlights the role of geographic information systems (GIS) in assessing vulnerability. The Vulnerability index is calculated as the sum of product of ratings and weights assigned to each of the parameter DRASTIC. The results revealed four vulnerability classes, 7% of the study area has a high vulnerability, 31% are moderately vulnerable, 57% have a low vulnerability and 5% are of very low vulnerability.

Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, Richard H.; Blohm, Andrew; Delgado, Alison

2016-02-01

U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Departments of Energy and Defense. The paper provides a framework of steps for climate vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. Inmore » a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change.« less

Vulnerability assessments as a political creation: tsunami management in Portugal.

PubMed

Pronk, Maartje; Maat, Harro; Crane, Todd A

2017-10-01

Vulnerability assessments are a cornerstone of contemporary disaster research. This paper shows how research procedures and the presentation of results of vulnerability assessments are politically filtered. Using data from a study of tsunami risk assessment in Portugal, the paper demonstrates that approaches, measurement instruments, and research procedures for evaluating vulnerability are influenced by institutional preferences, lines of communication, or lack thereof, between stakeholder groups, and available technical expertise. The institutional setting and the pattern of stakeholder interactions form a filter, resulting in a particular conceptualisation of vulnerability, affecting its operationalisation via existing methods and technologies and its institutional embedding. The Portuguese case reveals a conceptualisation that is aligned with perceptions prevalent in national government bureaucracies and the exclusion of local stakeholders owing to selected methodologies and assessment procedures. The decisions taken by actors involved in these areas affect how vulnerability is assessed, and ultimately which vulnerability reduction policies will be recommended in the appraisal. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of shallow aquifers of the sedimentary basin of southwestern Nigeria

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The shallow groundwater of the multi-layered sedimentary basin aquifer of southwestern Nigeria was assessed based on its intrinsic vulnerability property. The vulnerability evaluation involves determining the protective cover and infiltration condition of the unsaturated zone in the basin. This was achieved using the PI (P stands for protective cover effectiveness of the overlying lithology and I indicates the degree of infiltration bypass) vulnerability method of the European vulnerability approach. The PI method specifically measures the protection cover and the degree to which the protective cover is bypassed. Intrinsic parameters assessed were the subsoil, lithology, topsoil, recharge and fracturing for the protective cover. The saturated hydraulic conductivity of topsoil, infiltration processes and the lateral surface and subsurface flow were evaluated for the infiltration bypassed. The results show moderate to very low vulnerability areas. Low vulnerability areas were characterised by lithology with massive sandstone and limestone, subsoils of sandy loam texture, high slopes and high depth to water table. The moderate vulnerability areas were characterised by high rainfall and high recharge, low water table, unconsolidated sandstones and alluvium lithology. The intrinsic vulnerability properties shown in vulnerability maps will be a useful tool in planning and monitoring land use activities that can be of impact in groundwater pollution.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shao, Huaiyong, E-mail: huaiyongshao@163.com; Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing 48823, MI; Sun, Xiaofei

The Chinese government has conducted the Returning Grazing Land to Grassland Project (RGLGP) across large portions of grasslands from western China since 2003. In order to explore and understand the impact in the grassland's eco-environment during the RGLGP, we utilized Projection Pursuit Model (PPM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) to develop a spatial assessment model to examine the ecological vulnerability of the grassland. Our results include five indications: (1) it is practical to apply the spatial PPM on ecological vulnerability assessment for the grassland. This methodology avoids creating an artificial hypothesis, thereby providing objective results that successfully execute a multi-indexmore » assessment process and analysis under non-linear systems in eco-environments; (2) the spatial PPM is not only capable of evaluating regional eco-environmental vulnerability in a quantitative way, but also can quantitatively demonstrate the degree of effect in each evaluation index for regional eco-environmental vulnerability; (3) the eco-environment of the Xianshui River Basin falls into the medium range level. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land use cover and change (LUCC) crucially influence the Xianshui River Basin's eco-environmental vulnerability. Generally, in the Xianshui River Basin, regional eco-environmental conditions improved during 2000 and 2010. The RGLGP positively affected NDVI and LUCC structure, thereby promoting the enhancement of the regional eco-environment; (4) the Xianshui River Basin divides its ecological vulnerability across different levels; therefore our study investigates three ecological regions and proposes specific suggestions for each in order to assist in eco-environmental protection and rehabilitation; and lastly that (5) the spatial PPM established by this study has the potential to be applied on all types of grassland eco-environmental vulnerability assessments under the RGLGP and under the similar conditions in the Returning Agriculture Land to Forest Project (RALFP). However, when establishing an eco-environmental vulnerability assessment model, it is necessary to choose suitable evaluation indexes in accordance with regional eco-environmental characteristics. - Highlights: • We present a method for regional eco-environmental vulnerability assessment. • The method combines Projection Pursuit Model with Geographic Information System. • The Returning Grazing Land to Grassland Project is crucial to environment recovery. • The method is more objective to assess regional eco-environmental vulnerability.« less

Study on the Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment in Sanjiang Plain in Northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Y.; Tang, W. K.; Liu, C.

2012-12-01

The Sanjiang Plain is located in eastern part of China's Heilongjiang Province.It's total area is 109 000 km2, with cultivated land area being 3.6677 million hm2. It is a major national commodity grain base. Rice planting area in Sanjiang Plain has been increasing year by year. Groundwater exploitation is increasing rapidly as a result of rapid increase of paddy field area. It is necessary to research and analyze spatial diversity of groundwater pollution vulnerability for Sanjiang Plain, so as to fulfill the goal of integrated planning, rational utilization of land and water resource, avoiding or minimizing groundwater contamination, and protecting grain security of China. Based on the commonly used DRASTIC method internationally, and according to hydrogeology, land use and other characteristics of Sanjiang Plain, this paper establishes groundwater vulnerability assessment index system. Since the Sanjiang Plain is an area that gives priority to agriculture, and impact of agricultural land and agricultural activity on groundwater vulnerability can not be ignored. Two indicators of agricultural land use rate (L) and population density (P) are increased in the DRASTC index system, the remaining 5 indicators are groundwater depth (D), aquifer net recharge(R), aquifer media type (A), soil type(S), aquifer hydraulic conductivity (C). Taking ArcGis as a calculation analysis platform to assess groundwater vulnerability of the Sanjiang Plain, by using hierarchical analysis method of the fuzzy mathematics method to calculate each index weigh of evaluation vulnerability. This paper applies 6 levels of assessment standard as follows: vulnerability index DI <2 stands for not vulnerable; 2 8 stands for extremely vulnerable. Groundwater vulnerably contaminated area is delineated based on the groundwater vulnerability spatial distribution of Sanjiang Plain. Reasonable land use plan should be made, and strictly groundwater protection measures should be taken to reduce the risk of groundwater contamination.

Researching reducing health disparities: mixed-methods approaches.

PubMed

Stewart, Miriam; Makwarimba, Edward; Barnfather, Alison; Letourneau, Nicole; Neufeld, Anne

2008-03-01

There is a pressing need for assessment and intervention research focused on reducing health disparities. In our research program, the use of mixed methods has enhanced assessment of the mediating impacts of social support on the health of vulnerable populations and enabled the design and testing of support interventions. This paper highlights the benefits and challenges of mixed methods for investigating inequities; and, illustrates the application of mixed methods in two exemplar studies focused on vulnerable populations in Canada. Qualitative methods fostered in-depth understanding of vulnerable populations' support needs, support resources, intervention preferences, and satisfaction with intervention strategies and impacts. Quantitative methods documented the effectiveness and outcomes of intervention strategies, and enhanced the reliability and validity of assessments and interventions. The researchers demonstrate that participatory strategies are needed to make studies more relevant to reducing health disparities, contextually appropriate, and empowering.

Enhancement of global flood damage assessments using building material based vulnerability curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Englhardt, Johanna; de Ruiter, Marleen; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

This study discusses the development of an enhanced approach for flood damage and risk assessments using vulnerability curves that are based on building material information. The approach draws upon common practices in earthquake vulnerability assessments, and is an alternative for land-use or building occupancy approach in flood risk assessment models. The approach is of particular importance for studies where there is a large variation in building material, such as large scale studies or studies in developing countries. A case study of Ethiopia is used to demonstrate the impact of the different methodological approaches on direct damage assessments due to flooding. Generally, flood damage assessments use damage curves for different land-use or occupancy types (i.e. urban or residential and commercial classes). However, these categories do not necessarily relate directly to vulnerability of damage by flood waters. For this, the construction type and building material may be more important, as is used in earthquake risk assessments. For this study, we use building material classification data of the PAGER1 project to define new building material based vulnerability classes for flood damage. This approach will be compared to the widely applied land-use based vulnerability curves such as used by De Moel et al. (2011). The case of Ethiopia demonstrates and compares the feasibility of this novel flood vulnerability method on a country level which holds the potential to be scaled up to a global level. The study shows that flood vulnerability based on building material also allows for better differentiation between flood damage in urban and rural settings, opening doors to better link to poverty studies when such exposure data is available. Furthermore, this new approach paves the road to the enhancement of multi-risk assessments as the method enables the comparison of vulnerability across different natural hazard types that also use material-based vulnerability curves. Finally, this approach allows for more accuracy in estimating losses as a result of direct damages. 1 http://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/pager/

Putting vulnerability to climate change on the map: a review of approaches, benefits, and risks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Preston, Benjamin L

2011-01-01

There is growing demand among stakeholders across public and private institutions for spatially-explicit information regarding vulnerability to climate change at the local scale. However, the challenges associated with mapping the geography of climate change vulnerability are non-trivial, both conceptually and technically, suggesting the need for more critical evaluation of this practice. Here, we review climate change vulnerability mapping in the context of four key questions that are fundamental to assessment design. First, what are the goals of the assessment? A review of published assessments yields a range of objective statements that emphasize problem orientation or decision-making about adaptation actions. Second,more » how is the assessment of vulnerability framed? Assessments vary with respect to what values are assessed (vulnerability of what) and the underlying determinants of vulnerability that are considered (vulnerability to what). The selected frame ultimately influences perceptions of the primary driving forces of vulnerability as well as preferences regarding management alternatives. Third, what are the technical methods by which an assessment is conducted? The integration of vulnerability determinants into a common map remains an emergent and subjective practice associated with a number of methodological challenges. Fourth, who participates in the assessment and how will it be used to facilitate change? Assessments are often conducted under the auspices of benefiting stakeholders, yet many lack direct engagement with stakeholders. Each of these questions is reviewed in turn by drawing on an illustrative set of 45 vulnerability mapping studies appearing in the literature. A number of pathways for placing vulnerability« less

Groundwater vulnerability assessment for the Banyas Catchment of the Syrian coastal area using GIS and the RISKE method.

PubMed

Kattaa, Bassam; Al-Fares, Walid; Al Charideh, Abdul Rahman

2010-05-01

Vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are more susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic sources has become an important element for sensible resource management and landuse planning. This contribution aims at estimating aquifer vulnerability by applying the RISKE model in Banyas Catchment Area (BCA), Tartous Prefecture, west Syria. An additional objective is to demonstrate the combined use of the RISKE model and a geographical information system (GIS) as an effective method for groundwater pollution risk assessment. The RISKE model uses five environmental parameters (Rock of aquifer media, Infiltration, Soil media, Karst, and Epikarst) to characterize the hydro-geological setting and evaluate aquifer vulnerability. The elevated eastern and low western part of the study area was dominated by high vulnerability classes, while the middle part was characterized by moderate vulnerability classes. Based on the vulnerability analysis, it was found that 2% and 39% of BCA is under low and high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively, while more than 52% and 5% of the area of BCA can be designated as an area of moderate and very high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively. The GIS technique has provided an efficient environment for analyses and high capabilities of handling a large amount of spatial data. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mapping Water Vulnerability of the Yangtze River Basin: 1994-2013.

PubMed

Sun, Fengyun; Kuang, Wenhui; Xiang, Weining; Che, Yue

2016-11-01

A holistic understanding of the magnitude and long-term trend of water vulnerability is essential for making management decisions in a given river basin. Existing procedures to assess the spatiotemporal dynamic of water vulnerability in complex mega-scale river basins are inadequate; a new method named ensemble hydrologic assessment was proposed in this study, which allows collection of data and knowledge about many aspects of water resources to be synthesized in a useful way for vulnerability assessment. The objective of this study is to illustrate the practical utility of such an integrated approach in examining water vulnerability in the Yangtze River Basin. Overall, the results demonstrated that the ensemble hydrologic assessment model could largely explain the spatiotemporal evolution of water vulnerability. This paper improves understanding of the status and trends of water resources in the Yangtze River Basin.

Constructing the Indicators of Assessing Human Vulnerability to Industrial Chemical Accidents: A Consensus-based Fuzzy Delphi and Fuzzy AHP Approach

PubMed Central

Fatemi, Farin; Ardalan, Ali; Aguirre, Benigno; Mansouri, Nabiollah; Mohammadfam, Iraj

2017-01-01

Introduction: Industrial chemical accidents have been increased in developing countries. Assessing the human vulnerability in the residents of industrial areas is necessary for reducing the injuries and causalities of chemical hazards. The aim of this study was to explore the key indicators for the assessment of human vulnerability in the residents living near chemical installations. Methods: The indicators were established in the present study based on the Fuzzy Delphi method (FDM) and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). The reliability of FDM and FAHP was calculated. The indicators of human vulnerability were explored in two sets of social and physical domains. Thirty-five relevant experts participated in this study during March-July 2015. Results: According to experts, the top three indicators of human vulnerability according to the FDM and FAHP were vulnerable groups, population density, and awareness. Detailed sub-vulnerable groups and awareness were developed based on age, chronic or severe diseases, disability, first responders, and residents, respectively. Each indicator and sub-indicator was weighted and ranked and had an acceptable consistency ratio. Conclusions: The importance of social vulnerability indicators are about 7 times more than physical vulnerability indicators. Among the extracted indicators, vulnerable groups had the highest weight and the greatest impact on human vulnerability. however, further research is needed to investigate the applicability of established indicators and generalizability of the results to other studies. Key words: Fuzzy Delphi; Fuzzy AHP; Human vulnerability; Chemical hazards PMID:28480124

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Toro, Javier, E-mail: jjtoroca@unal.edu.co; Duarte, Oscar, E-mail: ogduartev@unal.edu.co; Requena, Ignacio, E-mail: requena@decsai.ugr.es

The concept of vulnerability has been used to describe the susceptibility of physical, biotic, and social systems to harm or hazard. In this sense, it is a tool that reduces the uncertainties of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) since it does not depend exclusively on the value assessments of the evaluator, but rather is based on the environmental state indicators of the site where the projects or activities are being carried out. The concept of vulnerability thus reduces the possibility that evaluators will subjectively interpret results, and be influenced by outside interests and pressures during projects. However, up until now, EIAmore » has been hindered by a lack of effective methods. This research study analyzes the concept of vulnerability, defines Vulnerability Importance and proposes its inclusion in qualitative EIA methodology. The method used to quantify Vulnerability Importance is based on a set of environmental factors and indicators that provide a comprehensive overview of the environmental state. The results obtained in Colombia highlight the usefulness and objectivity of this method since there is a direct relation between this value and the environmental state of the departments analyzed. - Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The concept of vulnerability could be considered defining Vulnerability Importance included in qualitative EIA methodology. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The use of the concept of environmental vulnerability could reduce the subjectivity of qualitative methods of EIA. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A method to quantify the Vulnerability Importance proposed provides a comprehensive overview of the environmental state. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Results in Colombia highlight the usefulness and objectivity of this method.« less

The participatory vulnerability scoping diagram - deliberative risk ranking for community water systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howe, Peter D.; Yarnal, Brent; Coletti, Alex; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

Natural hazards and climate change present growing challenges to community water system (CWS) managers, who are increasingly turning to vulnerability assessments to identify, prioritize, and adapt to risks. Effectively assessing CWS vulnerability requires information and participation from various sources, one of which is stakeholders. In this article, we present a deliberative risk-ranking methodology, the participatory vulnerability scoping diagram (P-VSD), which allows rapid assessment and integration of multiple stakeholder perspectives of vulnerability. This technique is based on methods of deliberative risk evaluation and the vulnerability scoping diagram. The goal of the methodology is to engage CWS managers and stakeholders collectively to provide qualitative contextual risk rankings as a first step in a vulnerability assessment. We conduct an initial assessment using a case study of CWS in two U.S. counties, sites with broadly similar exposures but differences in population, land use, and other social sensitivity factors. Results demonstrate that CWS managers and stakeholders in the two case study communities all share the belief that their CWS are vulnerable to hazards but differ in how this vulnerability manifests itself in terms of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of the system.

Factor weighting in DRASTIC modelling for assessing the groundwater vulnerability in Salatiga groundwater basin, Central Java Province, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kesuma, D. A.; Purwanto, P.; Putranto, T. T.; Rahmani, T. P. D.

2017-06-01

The increase in human population as well as area development in Salatiga Groundwater Basin, Central Java Province, will increase the potency of groundwater contamination in that area. Groundwater quality, especially the shallow groundwater, is very vulnerable to the contamination from industrial waste, fertilizer/agricultural waste, and domestic waste. The first step in the conservation of groundwater quality is by conducting the mapping of the groundwater vulnerability zonation against the contamination. The result of this research was groundwater vulnerability map which showed the areas vulnerable to the groundwater contamination. In this study, groundwater vulnerability map was assessed based on the DRASTIC Method and was processed spatially using Geographic Information System. The DRASTIC method is used to assess the level of groundwater vulnerability based on weighting on seven parameters, which are: depth to the water table (D), recharge (R), aquifer material (A), soil media (S), topography (T), impact of vadose zone (I), and hydraulic conductivity (C). The higher the DRASTIC Index will result in the higher vulnerability level of groundwater contamination in that area. The DRASTIC Indexes in the researched area were 85 - 100 (low vulnerability level), 101 -120 (low to moderate vulnerability level), 121 - 140 (moderate vulnerability level), 141 - 150, (moderate to high vulnerability level), and 151 - 159 (high vulnerability level). The output of this study can be used by local authority as a tool for consideration to arrange the policy for sustainable area development, especially the development in an area affecting the quality of Salatiga Groundwater Basin.

REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT (REVA) IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION MAKING THROUGH CLIENT PARTNERSHIPS

EPA Science Inventory

The Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReV A) Program is an applied research program t,1at is focusing on using spatial information and model results to support environmental decision-making at regional- down to local-scales. Re VA has developed analysis and assessment methods to...

Improving vulnerability models: lessons learned from a comparison between flood and earthquake assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen; Ward, Philip; Daniell, James; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

In a cross-discipline study, an extensive literature review has been conducted to increase the understanding of vulnerability indicators used in both earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments, and to provide insights into potential improvements of earthquake and flood vulnerability assessments. It identifies and compares indicators used to quantitatively assess earthquake and flood vulnerability, and discusses their respective differences and similarities. Indicators have been categorized into Physical- and Social categories, and further subdivided into (when possible) measurable and comparable indicators. Physical vulnerability indicators have been differentiated to exposed assets such as buildings and infrastructure. Social indicators are grouped in subcategories such as demographics, economics and awareness. Next, two different vulnerability model types have been described that use these indicators: index- and curve-based vulnerability models. A selection of these models (e.g. HAZUS) have been described, and compared on several characteristics such as temporal- and spatial aspects. It appears that earthquake vulnerability methods are traditionally strongly developed towards physical attributes at an object scale and used in vulnerability curve models, whereas flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use scales. Flood risk studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as incorporating more detailed lifeline and building indicators, and developing object-based vulnerability curve assessments of physical vulnerability, for example by defining building material based flood vulnerability curves. Related to this, is the incorporation of time of the day based building occupation patterns (at 2am most people will be at home while at 2pm most people will be in the office). Earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies when it comes to the refined selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies to further explore cross-hazard studies.

Vulnerability assessment including tangible and intangible components in the index composition: An Amazon case study of flooding and flash flooding.

PubMed

Andrade, Milena Marília Nogueira de; Szlafsztein, Claudio Fabian

2018-07-15

The vulnerability of cities and communities in the Amazon to flooding and flash flooding is increasing. The effects of extreme events on populations vary across landscapes, causing vulnerability to differ spatially. Traditional vulnerability studies in Brazil and across the world have used the vulnerability index for the country and, more recently, municipality scales. The vulnerability dimensions are exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. For each of these dimensions, there is a group of indicators that constitutes a vulnerability index using quantitative data. Several vulnerability assessments have used sensitivity and exposure analyses and, recently, adaptive capacity has been considered. The Geographical Information Systems (GIS) analysis allows spatial regional modeling using quantitative vulnerability indicators. This paper presents a local-scale vulnerability assessment in an urban Amazonian area, Santarém City, using interdisciplinary methods. Data for exposure and sensitivity were gathered by remote sensing and census data, respectively. However, adaptive capacity refers to local capacities, whether infrastructural or not, and the latter were gathered by qualitative participatory methods. For the mixed data used to study adaptive capacity, we consider tangible components for countable infrastructure that can cope with hazards, and intangible components that reflect social activities based on risk perceptions and collective action. The results indicate that over 80% of the area is highly or moderately vulnerable to flooding and flash flooding. Exposure and adaptive capacity were determinants of the results. Lower values of adaptive capacity play a significant role in vulnerability enhancement. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Water availability and vulnerability of 225 large cities in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padowski, Julie C.; Jawitz, James W.

2012-12-01

This study presents a quantitative national assessment of urban water availability and vulnerability for 225 U.S. cities with population greater than 100,000. Here, the urban assessments account for not only renewable water flows, but also the extracted, imported, and stored water that urban systems access through constructed infrastructure. These sources represent important hydraulic components of the urban water supply, yet are typically excluded from water scarcity assessments. Results from this hydraulic-based assessment were compared to those obtained using a more conventional method that estimates scarcity solely based on local renewable flows. The inclusion of hydraulic components increased the mean availability to cities, leading to a significantly lower portion of the total U.S. population considered "at risk" for water scarcity (17%) than that obtained from the runoff method (47%). Water vulnerability was determined based on low-flow conditions, and smaller differences were found for this metric between at-risk populations using the runoff (66%) and hydraulic-based (54%) methods. The large increase in the susceptible population between the scarcity measures evaluated using the hydraulic method may better reconcile the seeming contradiction in the United States between perceptions of natural water abundance and widespread water scarcity. Additionally, urban vulnerability measures developed here were validated using a media text analysis. Vulnerability assessments that included hydraulic components were found to correlate with the frequency of urban water scarcity reports in the popular press while runoff-based measures showed no significant correlation, suggesting that hydraulic-based assessments provide better context for understanding the nature and severity of urban water scarcity issues.

Quantitative evaluation of specific vulnerability to nitrate for groundwater resource protection based on process-based simulation model.

PubMed

Huan, Huan; Wang, Jinsheng; Zhai, Yuanzheng; Xi, Beidou; Li, Juan; Li, Mingxiao

2016-04-15

It has been proved that groundwater vulnerability assessment is an effective tool for groundwater protection. Nowadays, quantitative assessment methods for specific vulnerability are scarce due to limited cognition of complicated contaminant fate and transport processes in the groundwater system. In this paper, process-based simulation model for specific vulnerability to nitrate using 1D flow and solute transport model in the unsaturated vadose zone is presented for groundwater resource protection. For this case study in Jilin City of northeast China, rate constants of denitrification and nitrification as well as adsorption constants of ammonium and nitrate in the vadose zone were acquired by laboratory experiments. The transfer time at the groundwater table t50 was taken as the specific vulnerability indicator. Finally, overall vulnerability was assessed by establishing the relationship between groundwater net recharge, layer thickness and t50. The results suggested that the most vulnerable regions of Jilin City were mainly distributed in the floodplain of Songhua River and Mangniu River. The least vulnerable areas mostly appear in the second terrace and back of the first terrace. The overall area of low, relatively low and moderate vulnerability accounted for 76% of the study area, suggesting the relatively low possibility of suffering nitrate contamination. In addition, the sensitivity analysis showed that the most sensitive factors of specific vulnerability in the vadose zone included the groundwater net recharge rate, physical properties of soil medium and rate constants of nitrate denitrification. By validating the suitability of the process-based simulation model for specific vulnerability and comparing with index-based method by a group of integrated indicators, more realistic and accurate specific vulnerability mapping could be acquired by the process-based simulation model acquiring. In addition, the advantages, disadvantages, constraint conditions and applying prospects of the quantitative approach for specific vulnerability assessment were discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of vulnerability curves to typhoon hazards based on insurance policy and claim dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, Wanmei; Fang, Weihua; li, Xinze; Wu, Peng; Tong, Xingwei

2016-04-01

Vulnerability refers to the characteristics and circumstances of an exposure that make it vulnerable to the effects of some certain hazards. It can be divided into physical vulnerability, social vulnerability, economic vulnerabilities and environmental vulnerability. Physical vulnerability indicates the potential physical damage of exposure caused by natural hazards. Vulnerability curves, quantifying the loss ratio against hazard intensity with a horizontal axis for the intensity and a vertical axis for the Mean Damage Ratio (MDR), is essential to the vulnerability assessment and quantitative evaluation of disasters. Fragility refers to the probability of diverse damage states under different hazard intensity, revealing a kind of characteristic of the exposure. Fragility curves are often used to quantify the probability of a given set of exposure at or exceeding a certain damage state. The development of quantitative fragility and vulnerability curves is the basis of catastrophe modeling. Generally, methods for quantitative fragility and vulnerability assessment can be categorized into empirical, analytical and expert opinion or judgment-based ones. Empirical method is one of the most popular methods and it relies heavily on the availability and quality of historical hazard and loss dataset, which has always been a great challenge. Analytical method is usually based on the engineering experiments and it is time-consuming and lacks built-in validation, so its credibility is also sometimes criticized widely. Expert opinion or judgment-based method is quite effective in the absence of data but the results could be too subjective so that the uncertainty is likely to be underestimated. In this study, we will present the fragility and vulnerability curves developed with empirical method based on simulated historical typhoon wind, rainfall and induced flood, and insurance policy and claim datasets of more than 100 historical typhoon events. Firstly, an insurance exposure classification system is built according to structure type, occupation type and insurance coverage. Then MDR estimation method based on considering insurance policy structure and claim information is proposed and validated. Following that, fragility and vulnerability curves of the major exposure types for construction, homeowner insurance and enterprise property insurance are fitted with empirical function based on the historical dataset. The results of this study can not only help understand catastrophe risk and mange insured disaster risks, but can also be applied in other disaster risk reduction efforts.

Environmental Health Related Socio-Spatial Inequalities: Identifying “Hotspots” of Environmental Burdens and Social Vulnerability

PubMed Central

Shrestha, Rehana; Flacke, Johannes; Martinez, Javier; van Maarseveen, Martin

2016-01-01

Differential exposure to multiple environmental burdens and benefits and their distribution across a population with varying vulnerability can contribute heavily to health inequalities. Particularly relevant are areas with high cumulative burdens and high social vulnerability termed as “hotspots”. This paper develops an index-based approach to assess these multiple burdens and benefits in combination with vulnerability factors at detailed intra-urban level. The method is applied to the city of Dortmund, Germany. Using non-spatial and spatial methods we assessed inequalities and identified “hotspot” areas in the city. We found modest inequalities burdening higher vulnerable groups in Dortmund (CI = −0.020 at p < 0.05). At the detailed intra-urban level, however, inequalities showed strong geographical patterns. Large numbers of “hotspots” exist in the northern part of the city compared to the southern part. A holistic assessment, particularly at a detailed local level, considering both environmental burdens and benefits and their distribution across the population with the different vulnerability, is essential to inform environmental justice debates and to mobilize local stakeholders. Locating “hotspot” areas at this detailed spatial level can serve as a basis to develop interventions that target vulnerable groups to ensure a health conducive equal environment. PMID:27409625

V-DRASTIC: Using visualization to engage policymakers in groundwater vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bojórquez-Tapia, Luis A.; Cruz-Bello, Gustavo M.; Luna-González, Laura; Juárez, Lourdes; Ortiz-Pérez, Mario A.

2009-06-01

SummaryGroundwater vulnerability mapping is increasingly being used to design aquifer protection and management strategies. This paper presents a dynamic visualization method to groundwater vulnerability mapping. This method—called V-DRASTIC—extends the capacities of DRASTIC, an overlay/index technique that has been applied worldwide to evaluate the condition of hydrogeological factors and determine groundwater vulnerability at regional scales. V-DRASTIC is based upon psychophysics' principles (a theory that describes the people's response to a stimulus) to generate alternative groundwater vulnerability categorization schemes. These are used as inputs in a fuzzy pattern recognition procedure to enable planners, decision makers and stakeholders identify which scheme conveys meaningful information regarding groundwater vulnerability across a territory. V-DRASTIC was applied in the groundwater vulnerability assessment of two urban watersheds in Mexico.

Participatory flood vulnerability assessment: a multi-criteria approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Evers, Mariele; Delos Santos Almoradie, Adrian

2018-01-01

This paper presents a participatory multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach for flood vulnerability assessment while considering the relationships between vulnerability criteria. The applicability of the proposed framework is demonstrated in the municipalities of Lajeado and Estrela, Brazil. The model was co-constructed by 101 experts from governmental organizations, universities, research institutes, NGOs, and private companies. Participatory methods such as the Delphi survey, focus groups, and workshops were applied. A participatory problem structuration, in which the modellers work closely with end users, was used to establish the structure of the vulnerability index. The preferences of each participant regarding the criteria importance were spatially modelled through the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and analytical network process (ANP) multi-criteria methods. Experts were also involved at the end of the modelling exercise for validation. The final product is a set of individual and group flood vulnerability maps. Both AHP and ANP proved to be effective for flood vulnerability assessment; however, ANP is preferred as it considers the dependences among criteria. The participatory approach enabled experts to learn from each other and acknowledge different perspectives towards social learning. The findings highlight that to enhance the credibility and deployment of model results, multiple viewpoints should be integrated without forcing consensus.

[Spatial and temporal changes of the ecological vulnerability in a serious soil erosion area, Southern China.

PubMed

Yao, Xiong; Yu, Kun Yong; Liu, Jian; Yang, Su Ping; He, Ping; Deng, Yang Bo; Yu, Xin Yan; Chen, Zhang Hao

2016-03-01

Research on eco-environment vulnerability assessment contributes to the ecological environmental conservation and restoration. With Changting County as the study area, this paper selec-ted 7 indicators including slope, soil type, multi-year average precipitation, elevation deviate degree, normalized difference vegetation index, population density and land use type to build ecological vulnerability assessment system by using multicollinearity diagnostics analysis approach. The quantitative assessment of ecological vulnerability in 1999, 2006 and 2014 was calculated by using entropy weight method and comprehensive index method. The changes of the temporal-spatial distribution of ecological vulnerability were also analyzed. The results showed that the ecological vulnerability level index (EVLI) decreased overall but increased locally from 1999 to 2014. The average EVLI values in 1999, 2006 and 2014 were 0.4533±0.1216, 0.4160±0.1111 and 0.3916±0.1139, respectively, indicating that the ecological vulnerability in Changting County was at the moderate grade. The EVLI decreased from 2.92 in 1999 to 2.38 in 2006 and 2.13 in 2014. The spatial distribution of the ecological vulnerability was high inside but low outside. The high vulnerability areas were distributed mainly in Hetian Town and Tingzhou Town, where the slope was less than 15° and the altitude was lower than 500 m. During the study period, Sanzhou Town had the largest decreasing range of EVLI while Tingzhou Town had the lowest.

APPLICATION OF THE REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT (REVA) INTEGRATION TOOL AND UNDERLYING METHODS FOR MULTI-SCALE DECISION MAKING

EPA Science Inventory

In support of the National Science and Technology Council's cross-Agency priority of Integrated Science for Ecological Challenges (ISEC) EPA is conducting research to improve capabilities in the area of regional vulnerability assessment and ecological forecasting. EPA's research...

[Assessment of eco-environmental vulnerability of Hainan Island, China].

PubMed

Huang, Bao-rong; Ouyang, Zhi-yun; Zhang, Hui-zhi; Zhang, Li-hua; Zheng, Hua

2009-03-01

Based on the assessment method of environmental vulnerability constructed by SOPAC and UNEP, this paper constructed an indicator system from three sub-themes including hazard, resistance, and damage to assess the eco-environmental vulnerability of Hainan Island. The results showed that Hainan Island was suffering a middling level eco-environmental hazard, and the main hazards came from some intensive human activities such as intensive agriculture, mass tourism, mining, and a mass of solid wastes thrown by islanders and tourists. Some geographical characters such as larger land area, larger altitude range, integrated geographical form, and abundant habitat types endowed Hainan Island higher resistance to environmental hazards. However, disturbed by historical accumulative artificial and natural hazards, the Island ecosystem had showed serious ecological damage, such as soil degradation and biodiversity loss. Comprehensively considered hazard, resistance, damage, and degradation, the comprehensive environmental vulnerability of the Island was at a middling level. Some indicators showed lower vulnerability, but some showed higher vulnerability.

Mountain torrents: Quantifying vulnerability and assessing uncertainties

PubMed Central

Totschnig, Reinhold; Fuchs, Sven

2013-01-01

Vulnerability assessment for elements at risk is an important component in the framework of risk assessment. The vulnerability of buildings affected by torrent processes can be quantified by vulnerability functions that express a mathematical relationship between the degree of loss of individual elements at risk and the intensity of the impacting process. Based on data from the Austrian Alps, we extended a vulnerability curve for residential buildings affected by fluvial sediment transport processes to other torrent processes and other building types. With respect to this goal to merge different data based on different processes and building types, several statistical tests were conducted. The calculation of vulnerability functions was based on a nonlinear regression approach applying cumulative distribution functions. The results suggest that there is no need to distinguish between different sediment-laden torrent processes when assessing vulnerability of residential buildings towards torrent processes. The final vulnerability functions were further validated with data from the Italian Alps and different vulnerability functions presented in the literature. This comparison showed the wider applicability of the derived vulnerability functions. The uncertainty inherent to regression functions was quantified by the calculation of confidence bands. The derived vulnerability functions may be applied within the framework of risk management for mountain hazards within the European Alps. The method is transferable to other mountain regions if the input data needed are available. PMID:27087696

Groundwater vulnerability mapping of Qatar aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baalousha, Husam Musa

2016-12-01

Qatar is one of the most arid countries in the world with limited water resources. With little rainfall and no surface water, groundwater is the only natural source of fresh water in the country. Whilst the country relies mainly on desalination of seawater to secure water supply, groundwater has extensively been used for irrigation over the last three decades, which caused adverse environmental impact. Vulnerability assessment is a widely used tool for groundwater protection and land-use management. Aquifers in Qatar are carbonate with lots of fractures, depressions and cavities. Karst aquifers are generally more vulnerable to contamination than other aquifers as any anthropogenic-sourced contaminant, especially above a highly fractured zone, can infiltrate quickly into the aquifer and spread over a wide area. The vulnerability assessment method presented in this study is based on two approaches: DRASTIC and EPIK, within the framework of Geographical Information System (GIS). Results of this study show that DRASTIC vulnerability method suits Qatar hydrogeological settings more than EPIK. The produced vulnerability map using DRASTIC shows coastal and karst areas have the highest vulnerability class. The southern part of the country is located in the low vulnerability class due to occurrence of shale formation within aquifer media, which averts downward movement of contaminants.

Evaluating the importance of human-modified lands for neotropical bird conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petit, L.J.; Petit, D.R.

2003-01-01

Development of effective conservation plans for terrestrial animals will require some assessment of which human-modified and natural habitats can support populations of priority species. We examined bird communities associated with 11 natural and human-modified habitats in Panama and assessed the importance of those habitats for species of different vulnerability to disturbance. We calculated habitat importance scores using both relative habitat preferences and vulnerability scores for all species present. Species of moderate and high vulnerability were primarily those categorized as forest specialists or forest generalists. As expected, even species-rich nonforest habitats provided little conservation value for the most vulnerable species. However, shaded coffee plantations and gallery forest corridors were modified habitats with relatively high conservation value. Sugar cane fields and Caribbean pine plantations offered virtually no conservation value for birds. Our method of assessing the conservation importance of different habitats is useful because it considers the types of species present and the potential role of the habitat in the conservation of those species (i.e., habitat preference). This method of habitat evaluation could be tailored to other conservation contexts with any measure of species vulnerability desired.

[Vulnerability of eco-economy in northern slope region of Tianshan Mountains].

PubMed

Wu, Jian-zhai; Li, Bo; Zhang, Xin-shi; Zhao, Wen-wu; Jiang, Guang-hui

2008-04-01

Based on the theoretical meaning of vulnerability, a vulnerability assessment of eco-econom in fifteen counties in the northern slope region of Tianshan Mountains was conducted. The ecosystem services change to land use was regarded as the impact, and based on the fourteen indices from resource holding, society development, and economy development statistic data, the adaptive ability was evaluated by using the methods of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy synthetic evaluation. On the basis of assessment results of impact and adaptive capacity, the fifteen counties were divided into five classes under the assessment principles, and the district with higher-class number was of more vulnerability. The first class included Usu City and Changji City, the second class included Hutubi County, Miquan County, Fukang City, Jimsar County, Qitai County and Mori Kazak Autonomous County, the third class included Karamay City and Urumqi City, the fourth class included Kuitun City and Shawan County, and the fifth class included Jinghe County, Shihezi City and Manas County. The vulnerability reflected the level of eco-environment change and socioeconomic development, and the vulnerability assessment could be a good way to ensure the sustainable development. Aiming to decrease the vulnerability, various districts belonging to different class of vulnerability should establish relevant tactics according to the vulnerability factors to accelerate the region's sustainable development.

Groundwater vulnerability assessment in karstic aquifers using COP method.

PubMed

Bagherzadeh, Somayeh; Kalantari, Nasrollah; Nobandegani, Amir Fadaei; Derakhshan, Zahra; Conti, Gea Oliveri; Ferrante, Margherita; Malekahmadi, Roya

2018-05-02

Access to safe and reliable drinking water is amongst the important indicators of development in each society, and water scarcity is one of the challenges and limitations affecting development at national and regional levels and social life and economic activity areas. Generally, there are two types of drinking water sources: the first type is surface waters, including lakes, rivers, and streams and the second type is groundwaters existing in aquifers. Amongst aquifers, karst aquifers play an important role in supplying water sources of the world. Therefore, protecting these aquifers from pollution sources is of paramount importance. COP method is amongst the methods to investigate the intrinsic vulnerability of this type of aquifers, so that areas susceptible to contamination can be determined before being contaminated and these sources can be protected. In the present study, COP method was employed in order to spot the regions that are prone to contamination in the region. This method uses the properties of overlying geological layers above the water table (O factor), the concentration of flow (C factor), and precipitation (P factor) over the aquifer, as the parameters to assess the intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater resources. In this regard, geographical information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) were utilized to prepare the mentioned factors and the intrinsic vulnerability map was obtained. The results of COP method indicated that the northwest and the west of the region are highly and very vulnerable. This study indicated that regions with low vulnerability were observed in eastern areas, which accounted for 15.6% of the area. Moderate vulnerability was 40% and related to the northeast and southeast of the area. High vulnerability was 38.2% and related to western and southwestern regions. Very high vulnerability was 6.2% and related to the northwest of the area. By means of the analysis of sensitivity of the model, it was determined that the focus factor of the flow has the greatest impact on the creation of vulnerability in the region. Also, these results were validated through electrical conductivity and discharge time series of the regional springs that are located in the vulnerable zones.

Development of a process-oriented vulnerability concept for water travel time in karst aquifers-case study of Tanour and Rasoun springs catchment area.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamdan, Ibraheem; Sauter, Martin; Ptak, Thomas; Wiegand, Bettina; Margane, Armin; Toll, Mathias

2017-04-01

Key words: Karst aquifer, water travel time, vulnerability assessment, Jordan. The understanding of the groundwater pathways and movement through karst aquifers, and the karst aquifer response to precipitation events especially in the arid to semi-arid areas is fundamental to evaluate pollution risks from point and non-point sources. In spite of the great importance of the karst aquifer for drinking purposes, karst aquifers are highly sensitive to contamination events due to the fast connections between the land-surface and the groundwater (through the karst features) which is makes groundwater quality issues within karst systems very complicated. Within this study, different methods and approaches were developed and applied in order to characterise the karst aquifer system of the Tanour and Rasoun springs (NW-Jordan) and the flow dynamics within the aquifer, and to develop a process-oriented method for vulnerability assessment based on the monitoring of different multi-spatially variable parameters of water travel time in karst aquifer. In general, this study aims to achieve two main objectives: 1. Characterization of the karst aquifer system and flow dynamics. 2. Development of a process-oriented method for vulnerability assessment based on spatially variable parameters of travel time. In order to achieve these aims, different approaches and methods were applied starting from the understanding of the geological and hydrogeological characteristics of the karst aquifer and its vulnerability against pollutants, to using different methods, procedures and monitored parameters in order to determine the water travel time within the aquifer and investigate its response to precipitation event and, finally, with the study of the aquifer response to pollution events. The integrated breakthrough signal obtained from the applied methods and procedures including the using of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen, the monitoring of multi qualitative and quantitative parameters using automated probes and data loggers, and the development of travel time physics-based vulnerability assessment method shows good agreement as an applicable methods to determine the water travel time in karst aquifers, and to investigate its response to precipitation and pollution events.

Current Simulation Methods in Military Systems Vulnerability Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-11-01

Weapons * 1990: JASON Review of the Army Approach to Vulnerability Testing Many of the suggestions and recommendations made by these committees concern...damage vectors. Ongoing work by the JASONs 29 is also targeted to developing statistical methods for LF-test/SQuASH-model comparisons in Space 2]. We...Technical Report BRL-TR-3113, June 1990. 28. L. Tonnessen, A. Fries , L. Starkey and A. Stein, Live Fire Testing in the Evaluation of the Vulnerability of

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability by applying the modified DRASTIC model in Beihai City, China.

PubMed

Wu, Xiaoyu; Li, Bin; Ma, Chuanming

2018-05-01

This study assesses vulnerability of groundwater to pollution in Beihai City, China, as a support of groundwater resource protection. The assessment result not only objectively reflects potential possibility of groundwater to contamination but also provides scientific basis for the planning and utilization of groundwater resources. This study optimizes the parameters consisting of natural factors and human factors upon the DRASTIC model and modifies the ratings of these parameters, based on the local environmental conditions for the study area. And a weight of each parameter is assigned by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to reduce the subjectivity of humans to vulnerability assessment. The resulting scientific ratings and weights of modified DRASTIC model (AHP-DRASTLE model) contribute to obtain the more realistic assessment of vulnerability of groundwater to contaminant. The comparison analysis validates the accuracy and rationality of the AHP-DRASTLE model and shows it suits the particularity of the study area. The new assessment method (AHP-DRASTLE model) can provide a guide for other scholars to assess the vulnerability of groundwater to contamination. The final vulnerability map for the AHP-DRASTLE model shows four classes: highest (2%), high (29%), low (55%), and lowest (14%). The vulnerability map serves as a guide for decision makers on groundwater resource protection and land use planning at the regional scale and that it is adapted to a specific area.

The importance of assessing climate change vulnerability to address species conservation

Treesearch

Karen E. Bagne; Megan M. Friggens; Sharon J. Coe; Deborah M. Finch

2014-01-01

Species conservation often prioritizes attention on a small subset of "special status" species at high risk of extinction, but actions based on current lists of special status species may not effectively moderate biodiversity loss if climate change alters threats. Assessments of climate change vulnerability may provide a method to enhance identification of...

International Space Station: Meteoroid/Orbital Debris Survivability and Vulnerability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Graves, Russell

2000-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the surviability and vulnerability of the International Space Station (ISS) from the threat posed by meteoroid and orbital debris. The topics include: (1) Space station natural and induced environments (2) Meteoroid and orbital debris threat definition (3) Requirement definition (4) Assessment methods (5) Shield development and (6) Component vulnerability

Identification and ranking of environmental threats with ecosystem vulnerability distributions.

PubMed

Zijp, Michiel C; Huijbregts, Mark A J; Schipper, Aafke M; Mulder, Christian; Posthuma, Leo

2017-08-24

Responses of ecosystems to human-induced stress vary in space and time, because both stressors and ecosystem vulnerabilities vary in space and time. Presently, ecosystem impact assessments mainly take into account variation in stressors, without considering variation in ecosystem vulnerability. We developed a method to address ecosystem vulnerability variation by quantifying ecosystem vulnerability distributions (EVDs) based on monitoring data of local species compositions and environmental conditions. The method incorporates spatial variation of both abiotic and biotic variables to quantify variation in responses among species and ecosystems. We show that EVDs can be derived based on a selection of locations, existing monitoring data and a selected impact boundary, and can be used in stressor identification and ranking for a region. A case study on Ohio's freshwater ecosystems, with freshwater fish as target species group, showed that physical habitat impairment and nutrient loads ranked highest as current stressors, with species losses higher than 5% for at least 6% of the locations. EVDs complement existing approaches of stressor assessment and management, which typically account only for variability in stressors, by accounting for variation in the vulnerability of the responding ecosystems.

Fuzzy-based assessment of groundwater intrinsic vulnerability of a volcanic aquifer in the Chilean Andean Valley.

PubMed

Duhalde, Denisse J; Arumí, José L; Oyarzún, Ricardo A; Rivera, Diego A

2018-06-11

A fuzzy logic approach has been proposed to face the uncertainty caused by sparse data in the assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of a groundwater system with parametric methods in Las Trancas Valley, Andean Mountain, south-central Chile, a popular touristic place in Chile, but lacking of a centralized drinking and sewage water public systems; this situation is a potentially source of groundwater pollution. Based on DRASTIC, GOD, and EKv and the expert knowledge of the study area, the Mamdani fuzzy approach was generated and the spatial data were processed by ArcGIS. The groundwater system exhibited areas with high, medium, and low intrinsic vulnerability indices. The fuzzy approach results were compared with traditional methods results, which, in general, have shown a good spatial agreement even though significant changes were also identified in the spatial distribution of the indices. The Mamdani logic approach has shown to be a useful and practical tool to assess the intrinsic vulnerability of an aquifer under sparse data conditions.

Assessing Method to Identifying Water Resilience Against Natural and Climate Change Hazards.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amril, Rofi; Maryono

2018-02-01

A geographic region may become vulnerable toward water resources in a variety of ways. Common issues arise when man-made infrastructure such as housing, industrial, agriculture and other spatial land use policy implementation exceeds more than desired level. Vulnerability of a region due to water resources could be interpreted as the inability of the region to sustaining economic and social activity associated to socio-economic water availability. This study assess four aspects of water resilience: water quantity, water distribution, water quality, and water requirements. Literature review then followed by interview with academic expert used as method of study. This study found that four aspect of water vulnerability mostly have been applied to asses water resource vulnerability. Each aspect have a specific characteristic and could be define more specific and detail indicator according to the local content.

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to nitrates from agricultural sources using a GIS-compatible logic multicriteria model.

PubMed

Rebolledo, Boris; Gil, Antonia; Flotats, Xavier; Sánchez, José Ángel

2016-04-15

In the present study an overlay method to assess groundwater vulnerability is proposed. This new method based on multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) was developed and validated using an appropriate case study in Aragon area (NE Spain). The Vulnerability Index to Nitrates from Agricultural Sources (VINAS) incorporates a novel Logic Scoring of Preferences (LSP) approach, and it has been developed using public geographic information from the European Union. VINAS-LSP identifies areas with five categories of vulnerability, taking into account the hydrogeological and environmental characteristics of the territory as a whole. The resulting LSP map is a regional screening tool that can provide guidance on the potential risk of nitrate pollution, as well as highlight areas where specific research and farming planning policies are required. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Unmanned Tactical Autonomous Control and Collaboration Threat and Vulnerability Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

they are evaluated separately 15 from each other [19]. One major difference between this classification method and the FIPS 199 is that no...both technical and nontechnical methods ” [31]. These different methods will enable the UTACC system to effectively mitigate vulnerabilities that...team. Marines on the battlefield communicate with each other in many different and unique methods . UTACC must be adaptable to these different methods

Assessment of well vulnerability for groundwater source protection based on a solute transport model: a case study from Jilin City, northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huan, Huan; Wang, Jinsheng; Lai, Desheng; Teng, Yanguo; Zhai, Yuanzheng

2015-05-01

Well vulnerability assessment is essential for groundwater source protection. A quantitative approach to assess well vulnerability in a well capture zone is presented, based on forward solute transport modeling. This method was applied to three groundwater source areas (Jiuzhan, Hadawan and Songyuanhada) in Jilin City, northeast China. The ratio of the maximum contaminant concentration at the well to the released concentration at the contamination source ( c max/ c 0) was determined as the well vulnerability indicator. The results indicated that well vulnerability was higher close to the pumping well. The well vulnerability in each groundwater source area was low. Compared with the other two source areas, the cone of depression at Jiuzhan resulted in higher spatial variability of c max/ c 0 and lower minimum c max/ c 0 by three orders of magnitude. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis indicated that the denitrification rate in the aquifer was the most sensitive with respect to well vulnerability. A process to derive a NO3-N concentration at the pumping well is presented, based on determining the maximum nitrate loading limit to satisfy China's drinking-water quality standards. Finally, the advantages, disadvantages and prospects for improving the precision of this well vulnerability assessment approach are discussed.

Drought vulnerability assessment: The case of wheat farmers in Western Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarafshani, Kiumars; Sharafi, Lida; Azadi, Hossein; Hosseininia, Gholamhossein; De Maeyer, Philippe; Witlox, Frank

2012-12-01

Drought, as a natural and slow-onset phenomenon, creates numerous damages to agricultural communities. As a drought prone area in the Middle East, Iran has currently launched a crisis management approach to mitigate the harmful impacts of drought. However, thus far studies indicate that effective drought management strategies should be designed based upon vulnerability management which can increase farmers' ability to challenge the impacts. The purpose of this study was to assess drought vulnerability across three drought intensities (very high, extremely high, and critical) areas in Western Iran. Accordingly, a survey study was applied and 370 wheat farmers who all experienced drought during 2007-2009 were selected through a multi-stage stratified random sampling method. Face to face interviews were used to collect data on vulnerability indices from the farmers. Me-Bar and Valdez's vulnerability formula was applied to assess the vulnerability of wheat farmers during drought. Results revealed that the farmers' vulnerability is influenced mainly by economic, socio-cultural, psychological, technical, and infrastructural factors. The results also indicated that the farmers in Sarpole-Zahab township were most vulnerable compared to those in the Kermanshah township as the least vulnerable. Accordingly, some conclusions and recommendations are drawn for both policy-makers and practitioners who often must prioritize limited resources in the design vulnerability-reducing interventions.

Sintacs Aquifer Vulnerability in the Definition of the Natural Protected Area Los Chorros Del Varal, Los Reyes, Michoacan, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, J.; Ramiro, R.; Estrada, F.; Ochoa, S.

2006-12-01

In Michoacan State, Mexico, the use of aquifer vulnerability assessment is been incorporated in the regional policies of aquifer protection. A hydrogeological evaluation and aquifer vulnerability assessment using the SINTACS method was done in the natural protected area, NPA, Los Chorros del Varal in Michoacan State, Central Mexico. This place is a discharge area. An spectacular spring is feeding a stream. The predominant rocks are volcanic. By means of the SINTACS method a contamination risk zoning was obtained. The research permitted the expansion of the protection area of Los Chorros del Varal: a surrounding area to avoid anthropogenic impacts. This NPA is the preferential recharge area of the regional aquifer. This aquifer is the main water supply source for more than 200,000 inhabitants. A high to medium vulnerability was calculated. These vulnerable parts must be protected impeding risky projects such as dumps or industries producing wastewaters. Low values were obtained in clayey environments and also in volcanic rocks with scarce fracturing.

The assessment of vulnerability to natural disasters in China by using the DEA method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wei Yiming; Fan Ying; Lu Cong

2004-05-01

China has been greatly affected by natural disasters, so that it is of great importance to analyze the impact of natural disasters on national economy. Usually, the frequency of disasters or absolute loss inflicted by disasters is the first priority to be considered, while the capability of regions to overcome disasters is ignored. The concept of vulnerability is used to measure the capability to overcome disasters in different regions with distinctive economies. Traditional methods for vulnerability analysis calculate sub-indices based on disaster frequency, loss, the economic impact and the population of each region, and then add the sub-indices to getmore » a composite index for regional vulnerability. But those methods are sensitive to the weights selected for sub-indices when multi-indexes are added up to get an index of total vulnerability. The analytic results are less convincing because of the subjectivity of different weighting methods. A data envelopment analysis (DEA)-based model for analysis of regional vulnerability to natural disasters is presented here to improve upon the traditional method. This paper systematically describes the DEA method to evaluate the relative severity of disasters in each region. A model for regional vulnerability analysis is developed, based on the annual governmental statistics from 1989 to 2000. The regional vulnerabilities in China's mainland are illustrated as a case study, and a new method for the classification of regional vulnerability to natural disasters in China is proposed.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sahoo, Satiprasad; Dhar, Anirban, E-mail: anirban.dhar@gmail.com; Kar, Amlanjyoti

Environmental management of an area describes a policy for its systematic and sustainable environmental protection. In the present study, regional environmental vulnerability assessment in Hirakud command area of Odisha, India is envisaged based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process method (Grey–AHP) using integrated remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Grey–AHP combines the advantages of classical analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey clustering method for accurate estimation of weight coefficients. It is a new method for environmental vulnerability assessment. Environmental vulnerability index (EVI) uses natural, environmental and human impact related factors, e.g., soil, geology, elevation, slope, rainfall, temperature, windmore » speed, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, crop intensity, agricultural DRASTIC value, population density and road density. EVI map has been classified into four environmental vulnerability zones (EVZs) namely: ‘low’, ‘moderate’ ‘high’, and ‘extreme’ encompassing 17.87%, 44.44%, 27.81% and 9.88% of the study area, respectively. EVI map indicates that the northern part of the study area is more vulnerable from an environmental point of view. EVI map shows close correlation with elevation. Effectiveness of the zone classification is evaluated by using grey clustering method. General effectiveness is in between “better” and “common classes”. This analysis demonstrates the potential applicability of the methodology. - Highlights: • Environmental vulnerability zone identification based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) • The effectiveness evaluation by means of a grey clustering method with support from AHP • Use of grey approach eliminates the excessive dependency on the experience of experts.« less

[The assessment of vulnerability to floods in Guangdong province at district level].

PubMed

Zhu, Qi; Liu, Tao; Zhang, Yong-hui; Luo, Yuan; Wei, Yao; Xiao, Jian-peng; Zeng, Si-qing; Ma, Wen-jun

2012-11-01

To evaluate the vulnerability to floods in Guangdong province at district level. Data were collected from the sixth census, the 2010 Statistical Yearbook of Guangdong, the 2010 Health Statistics Yearbook of Guangdong and China Disease Prevention and Control information systems, etc. The weight of each indicator was determined based on subjective method and objective method respectively; and finally the results of the two methods were compared. 13 indicators were selected for the assessment of vulnerability to floods, including 6 sensitivity indicators, 5 adaptability indicators and 2 exposure indicators. Indicators with large weight (subjective weight/objective weight) were the proportion of population older than 65 years old (0.31/0.30), the proportion of population older than 65 years old (0.16/0.23), infant mortality rate (0.18/0.20), the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (0.33/0.21), the proportion of illiterate in the population older than 15 years old (0.19/0.28), history frequency of floods (0.75/0.75). The mean vulnerability index (VI) calculated by subjective method was 0.35 with the standard deviation of 0.10; the mean vulnerability index calculated by objective method was 0.31 with the standard deviation of 0.08. The two weighting methods showed consistent results of vulnerability index (ICC = 0.975, P < 0.01). VI of most districts dropped in the interval of 0.30 - 0.39. Districts with subjective VI > 0.50 or objective VI > 0.40 should pay more attention to floods, including parts of the coastal areas, Beijiang River Basin, the eastern tributary area of Dongjiang River and the northern part of Pearl River Delta. Dapu district of Meizhou (0.55/0.45), Dianbai district and Maogang district of Maoming (0.54/0.48) were most vulnerable. Districts of Heyuan, Dongguan, Zhaoqing and Huizhou were less vulnerable, Yuancheng district of Heyuan showed least vulnerable to floods (0.15/0.12) followed by Dongguan (0.18/0.16), Duanzhou district (0.18/0.16) and Guangning (0.17/0.15) district of Zhaoqing. The score of indicators differed among different level of vulnerability (P < 0.05). Different regions of Guangdong province showed different vulnerability to floods, vulnerable areas should be priority in the prevention and control of floods.

Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

PubMed

Moyle, Peter B; Kiernan, Joseph D; Crain, Patrick K; Quiñones, Rebecca M

2013-01-01

Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C) are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It should be useful for setting conservation priorities in many different regions.

Climate Change Vulnerability of Native and Alien Freshwater Fishes of California: A Systematic Assessment Approach

PubMed Central

Moyle, Peter B.; Kiernan, Joseph D.; Crain, Patrick K.; Quiñones, Rebecca M.

2013-01-01

Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California’s native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C) are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It should be useful for setting conservation priorities in many different regions. PMID:23717503

Spatial-explicit modeling of social vulnerability to malaria in East Africa

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Despite efforts in eradication and control, malaria remains a global challenge, particularly affecting vulnerable groups. Despite the recession in malaria cases, previously malaria free areas are increasingly confronted with epidemics as a result of changing environmental and socioeconomic conditions. Next to modeling transmission intensities and probabilities, integrated spatial methods targeting the complex interplay of factors that contribute to social vulnerability are required to effectively reduce malaria burden. We propose an integrative method for mapping relative levels of social vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner to support the identification of intervention measures. Methods Based on a literature review, a holistic risk and vulnerability framework has been developed to guide the assessment of social vulnerability to water-related vector-borne diseases (VBDs) in the context of changing environmental and societal conditions. Building on the framework, this paper applies spatially explicit modeling for delineating homogeneous regions of social vulnerability to malaria in eastern Africa, while taking into account expert knowledge for weighting the single vulnerability indicators. To assess the influence of the selected indicators on the final index a local sensitivity analysis is carried out. Results Results indicate that high levels of malaria vulnerability are concentrated in the highlands, where immunity within the population is currently low. Additionally, regions with a lack of access to education and health services aggravate vulnerability. Lower values can be found in regions with relatively low poverty, low population pressure, low conflict density and reduced contributions from the biological susceptibility domain. Overall, the factors characterizing vulnerability vary spatially in the region. The vulnerability index reveals a high level of robustness in regard to the final choice of input datasets, with the exception of the immunity indicator which has a marked impact on the composite vulnerability index. Conclusions We introduce a conceptual framework for modeling risk and vulnerability to VBDs. Drawing on the framework we modeled social vulnerability to malaria in the context of global change using a spatially explicit approach. The results provide decision makers with place-specific options for targeting interventions that aim at reducing the burden of the disease amongst the different vulnerable population groups. PMID:25127688

Quantitative Assessment of Transportation Network Vulnerability with Dynamic Traffic Simulation Methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shekar, Venkateswaran; Fiondella, Lance; Chatterjee, Samrat

Transportation networks are critical to the social and economic function of nations. Given the continuing increase in the populations of cities throughout the world, the criticality of transportation infrastructure is expected to increase. Thus, it is ever more important to mitigate congestion as well as to assess the impact disruptions would have on individuals who depend on transportation for their work and livelihood. Moreover, several government organizations are responsible for ensuring transportation networks are available despite the constant threat of natural disasters and terrorist activities. Most of the previous transportation network vulnerability research has been performed in the context ofmore » static traffic models, many of which are formulated as traditional optimization problems. However, transportation networks are dynamic because their usage varies over time. Thus, more appropriate methods to characterize the vulnerability of transportation networks should consider their dynamic properties. This paper presents a quantitative approach to assess the vulnerability of a transportation network to disruptions with methods from traffic simulation. Our approach can prioritize the critical links over time and is generalizable to the case where both link and node disruptions are of concern. We illustrate the approach through a series of examples. Our results demonstrate that the approach provides quantitative insight into the time varying criticality of links. Such an approach could be used as the objective function of less traditional optimization methods that use simulation and other techniques to evaluate the relative utility of a particular network defense to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience.« less

Improving Sampling and Response Rates in Children's Health Research through Participatory Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Claudio, Luz; Stingone, Jeanette A.

2008-01-01

Background: Children's health is an important indicator of community health because children are especially vulnerable to disease. The school setting is ideal for assessing these vulnerabilities and prevalence of disease, yet the methods that produce high participation among students and their families are not usually described or evaluated. This…

[Vulnerability assessment of eco-environment in Yimeng mountainous area of Shandong Province based on SRP conceptual model].

PubMed

Liu, Zheng-jia; Yu, Xing-xiu; Li, Lei; Huang, Mei

2011-08-01

Based on the ecological sensitivity-resilience-pressure (SRP) conceptual model, and selecting 13 indices including landscape diversity index, soil erosion, and elevation, etc. , the vulnerability of the eco-environment in Yimeng mountainous area of Shandong Province was assessed under the support of GIS and by using principal component analysis and hierarchy analytical method. According to the eco-environmental vulnerability index (EVI) values, the eco-environment vulnerability of study area was classified into 5 levels, i.e., slight (<1.8), light (1.8-2.8), moderate (2.8-3.5), heavy (3.5-4.0), and extreme vulnerability (>4.0). In the study area, moderately vulnerable area occupied 43.3% of the total, while the slightly, lightly, heavily, and extremely vulnerable areas occupied 6.1%, 33.8%, 15.9%, and 0.9%, respectively. The heavily and extremely vulnerable areas mainly located in the topographically complicated hilly area or the hill-plain ecotone with frequent human activities.

Review and recommendations for climate change vulnerability assessment approaches with examples from the Southwest

Treesearch

M. Friggens; K. Bagne; D. Finch; D. Falk; J. Triepke; A. Lynch

2013-01-01

Climate change creates new challenges for resource managers and decision-makers with broad and often complex effects that make it difficult to accurately predict and design management actions to minimize undesirable impacts. We review pertinent information regarding methods and approaches used to conduct climate change vulnerability assessments to reveal assumptions...

Case Study 3: Species vulnerability assessment for the Middle Rio Grande, New Mexico

Treesearch

Deborah M. Finch; Megan Friggens; Karen Bagne

2011-01-01

This case study describes a method for scoring terrestrial species that have potential to be vulnerable to climate change. The assessment tool seeks to synthesize complex information related to projected climate changes into a predictive tool for species conservation. The tool was designed to aid managers in prioritizing species management actions in response to...

Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land

2006-01-01

We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.

Groundwater vulnerability assessment using hydrogeologic and geoelectric layer susceptibility indexing at Igbara Oke, Southwestern Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oni, T. E.; Omosuyi, G. O.; Akinlalu, A. A.

2017-12-01

Groundwater vulnerability assessment was carried out at Igbara Oke Southwestern Nigeria, with a view to classify the area into vulnerability zones, by applying the electrical resistivity method, using Schlumberger electrode arrays with maximum electrode separation (AB/2) of 65 m in (41) different locations for data acquisition. Geoelectric parameters (layer resistivity and thickness) were determined from the interpreted data. The study area comprises four geoelectric layers (topsoil, lateritic layer, weathered/fractured layer and fresh basement). The geoelectric parameters of the overlying layers across the area were used to assess the vulnerability of the underlying aquifers to near-surface contaminants with the aid of vulnerability maps generated. Three models were compared by maps using geo-electrically derived models; longitudinal conductance, GOD (groundwater occurrence, overlying lithology and depth to the aquifer) and GLSI (geoelectric layer susceptibility indexing). The total longitudinal conductance map shows the north central part of the study area as a weakly protected (0.1-0.19) area, while the northern and southern parts have poor protective capacity (<0.1); this is in agreement with the GOD method which shows the northern part of the study area as less vulnerable (0-0.1) while the southern part has low/moderate (0.1-0.3) vulnerability to contamination. The longitudinal conductance exaggerates the degree of susceptibility to contamination than the GOD and GLSI models. From the models, vulnerability to contamination can be considered higher at the southern part than the northern part and therefore, sources of contamination like septic tank, refuse dump should be cited far from groundwater development area.

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

PubMed

Rohat, Guillaume

2018-03-19

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new set of alternative futures of societal development that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure-i.e., mainly future population patterns-, neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps-mainly linked to the paucity of available projections-that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs-namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts' elicitation and correlation analyses-and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods-such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models-show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely on these methods to account for future human vulnerability-under varying levels of socioeconomic development-and to explore its influence on future health risks under different degrees of climate change.

Comprehensive vulnerability assessment method for nodes considering anti-interference ability and influence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LUO, Jianchun; WANG, Yunyu; YANG, Jun; RAN, hong; PENG, Xiaodong; HUANG, Ming; FENG, Hao; LIU, Meijun

2018-03-01

The vulnerability assessment of power grid is of great significance in the current research. Power system faces many kinds of uncertainty factors, and the disturbance caused by them has become one of the main factors which restrict the safe operation of power grid. To solve this problem, considering the anti-interference ability of the system when the system is disturbed and the effect of the system when the node is out of operation, a set of index to reflect the anti-interference ability and the influence of nodes are set up. On this basis, a new comprehensive vulnerability assessment method of nodes is put forward by using super efficiency data envelopment analysis to scientific integration. Finally, the simulative results of IEEE30-bus system indicated that the proposed model is rational and valid.

Constructing the Indicators of Assessing Human Vulnerability to Industrial Chemical Accidents: A Consensus-based Fuzzy Delphi and Fuzzy AHP Approach.

PubMed

Fatemi, Farin; Ardalan, Ali; Aguirre, Benigno; Mansouri, Nabiollah; Mohammadfam, Iraj

2017-04-10

Industrial chemical accidents have been increased in developing countries. Assessing the human vulnerability in the residents of industrial areas is necessary for reducing the injuries and causalities of chemical hazards. The aim of this study was to explore the key indicators for the assessment of human vulnerability in the residents living near chemical installations. The indicators were established in the present study based on the Fuzzy Delphi method (FDM) and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). The reliability of FDM and FAHP was calculated. The indicators of human vulnerability were explored in two sets of social and physical domains. Thirty-five relevant experts participated in this study during March-July 2015. According to experts, the top three indicators of human vulnerability according to the FDM and FAHP were vulnerable groups, population density, and awareness. Detailed sub-vulnerable groups and awareness were developed based on age, chronic or severe diseases, disability, first responders, and residents, respectively. Each indicator and sub-indicator was weighted and ranked and had an acceptable consistency ratio. The importance of social vulnerability indicators are about 7 times more than physical vulnerability indicators. Among the extracted indicators, vulnerable groups had the highest weight and the greatest impact on human vulnerability. however, further research is needed to investigate the applicability of established indicators and generalizability of the results to other studies. Fuzzy Delphi; Fuzzy AHP; Human vulnerability; Chemical hazards.

Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer (Veneto Region, Italy).

PubMed

Cucchi, Franco; Franceschini, Giuliana; Zini, Luca; Aurighi, Marina

2008-09-01

Maps illustrating the different degrees of vulnerability within a given area are integral to environmental protection and management policies. The assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of karst areas is difficult since the type and stage of karst development and the related underground discharge behavior are difficult to determine and quantify. Geographic Information Systems techniques are applied to the evaluation of the vulnerability of an aquifer in the alpine karst area of the Sette Comuni Plateau, in the Veneto Region of northern Italy. The water resources of the studied aquifer are of particular importance to the local communities. This aquifer must therefore be protected from both inappropriate use as well as possible pollution. The SINTACS and SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) vulnerability assessment methods have been utilized here to create the vulnerability map. SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) is an adaptation of the parametric managerial model (SINTACS) to karst hydrostructures. The vulnerability map reveals vast zones (81% of the analyzed areas) with a high degree of vulnerability. The presence of well-developed karst structures in these highly vulnerable areas facilitate water percolation, thereby enhancing the groundwater vulnerability risk. Only 1.5 of the studied aquifer have extremely high-vulnerability levels, however these areas include all of the major springs utilized for human consumption. This vulnerability map of the Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer is an indispensable tool for both the effective management of water resources and as support to environmental planning in the Sette Comuni Plateau area.

Spatial vulnerability units - expert-based spatial modelling of socio-economic vulnerability in the Salzach catchment, Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kienberger, S.; Lang, S.; Zeil, P.

2009-05-01

The assessment of vulnerability has moved to centre-stage of the debate between different scientific disciplines related to climate change and disaster risk management. Composed by a combination of social, economical, physical and environmental factors the assessment implies combining different domains as well as quantitative with qualitative data and makes it therefore a challenge to identify an integrated metric for vulnerability. In this paper we define vulnerability in the context of climate change, targeting the hazard "flood". The developed methodology is being tested in the Salzach river catchment in Austria, which is largely prone to floods. The proposed methodology allows the spatial quantification of vulnerability and the identification of vulnerability units. These units build upon the geon concept which acts as a framework for the regionalization of continuous spatial information according to defined parameters of homogeneity. Using geons, we are capable of transforming singular domains of information on specific systemic components to policy-relevant, conditioned information. Considering the fact that vulnerability is not directly measurable and due to its complex dimension and social construction an expert-based approach has been chosen. Established methodologies such as Multicriteria Decision Analysis, Delphi exercises and regionalization approaches are being integrated. The method not only enables the assessment of vulnerability independent from administrative boundaries, but also applies an aggregation mode which reflects homogenous vulnerability units. This supports decision makers to reflect on complex issues such as vulnerability. Next to that, the advantage is to decompose the units to their underlying domains. Feedback from disaster management experts indicates that the approach helps to improve the design of measures aimed at strengthening preparedness and mitigation. From this point of view, we reach a step closer towards validation of the proposed method, comprising critical user-oriented aspects like adequateness, practicability and usability of the provided results in general.

Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment for Hospital Buildings Using a Gis-Based Group Multi Criteria Decision Making Approach: a Case Study of Tehran, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delavar, M. R.; Moradi, M.; Moshiri, B.

2015-12-01

Nowadays, urban areas are threatened by a number of natural hazards such as flood, landslide and earthquake. They can cause huge damages to buildings and human beings which necessitates disaster mitigation and preparation. One of the most important steps in disaster management is to understand all impacts and effects of disaster on urban facilities. Given that hospitals take care of vulnerable people reaction of hospital buildings against earthquake is vital. In this research, the vulnerability of hospital buildings against earthquake is analysed. The vulnerability of buildings is related to a number of criteria including age of building, number of floors, the quality of materials and intensity of the earthquake. Therefore, the problem of seismic vulnerability assessment is a multi-criteria assessment problem and multi criteria decision making methods can be used to address the problem. In this paper a group multi criteria decision making model is applied because using only one expert's judgments can cause biased vulnerability maps. Sugeno integral which is able to take into account the interaction among criteria is employed to assess the vulnerability degree of buildings. Fuzzy capacities which are similar to layer weights in weighted linear averaging operator are calculated using particle swarm optimization. Then, calculated fuzzy capacities are included into the model to compute a vulnerability degree for each hospital.

A comparison of data-driven groundwater vulnerability assessment methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sorichetta, Alessandro; Ballabio, Cristiano; Masetti, Marco; Robinson, Gilpin R.; Sterlacchini, Simone

2013-01-01

Increasing availability of geo-environmental data has promoted the use of statistical methods to assess groundwater vulnerability. Nitrate is a widespread anthropogenic contaminant in groundwater and its occurrence can be used to identify aquifer settings vulnerable to contamination. In this study, multivariate Weights of Evidence (WofE) and Logistic Regression (LR) methods, where the response variable is binary, were used to evaluate the role and importance of a number of explanatory variables associated with nitrate sources and occurrence in groundwater in the Milan District (central part of the Po Plain, Italy). The results of these models have been used to map the spatial variation of groundwater vulnerability to nitrate in the region, and we compare the similarities and differences of their spatial patterns and associated explanatory variables. We modify the standard WofE method used in previous groundwater vulnerability studies to a form analogous to that used in LR; this provides a framework to compare the results of both models and reduces the effect of sampling bias on the results of the standard WofE model. In addition, a nonlinear Generalized Additive Model has been used to extend the LR analysis. Both approaches improved discrimination of the standard WofE and LR models, as measured by the c-statistic. Groundwater vulnerability probability outputs, based on rank-order classification of the respective model results, were similar in spatial patterns and identified similar strong explanatory variables associated with nitrate source (population density as a proxy for sewage systems and septic sources) and nitrate occurrence (groundwater depth).

Using GA-Ridge regression to select hydro-geological parameters influencing groundwater pollution vulnerability.

PubMed

Ahn, Jae Joon; Kim, Young Min; Yoo, Keunje; Park, Joonhong; Oh, Kyong Joo

2012-11-01

For groundwater conservation and management, it is important to accurately assess groundwater pollution vulnerability. This study proposed an integrated model using ridge regression and a genetic algorithm (GA) to effectively select the major hydro-geological parameters influencing groundwater pollution vulnerability in an aquifer. The GA-Ridge regression method determined that depth to water, net recharge, topography, and the impact of vadose zone media were the hydro-geological parameters that influenced trichloroethene pollution vulnerability in a Korean aquifer. When using these selected hydro-geological parameters, the accuracy was improved for various statistical nonlinear and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, such as multinomial logistic regression, decision trees, artificial neural networks, and case-based reasoning. These results provide a proof of concept that the GA-Ridge regression is effective at determining influential hydro-geological parameters for the pollution vulnerability of an aquifer, and in turn, improves the AI performance in assessing groundwater pollution vulnerability.

Modelling the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards for river basin management using a GIS-based multicriteria decision approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, Hung-Chih; Wu, Ju-Yu; Hung, Chih-Hsuan

2017-04-01

1. Background Asia-Pacific region is one of the most vulnerable areas of the world to climate-related hazards and extremes due to rapid urbanization and over-development in hazard-prone areas. It is thus increasingly recognized that the management of land use and reduction of hazard risk are inextricably linked. This is especially critical from the perspective of integrated river basin management. A range of studies has targeted existing vulnerability assessments. However, limited attention has been paid to the cumulative effects of multiple vulnerable factors and their dynamics faced by local communities. This study proposes a novel methodology to access the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards, and to examine the relationship between the attraction factors relevant to the general process of urbanization and vulnerability variability with a focus on a river basin management unit. 2. Methods and data The methods applied in this study include three steps. First, using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) approach, a Cumulative Vulnerability Assessment Framework (CVAF) is built with a goal to characterize and compare the vulnerability to climate-related hazards within river basin regions based on a composition of multiple indicators. We organize these indicator metrics into three categories: (1) hazard exposure; (2) socioeconomic sensitivity, and (3) adaptive capacity. Second, the CVAF is applied by combining a geographical information system (GIS)-based spatial statistics technique with a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess and map the changing cumulative vulnerability, comparing conditions in 1996 and 2006 in Danshui River Basin, Taiwan. Third, to examine the affecting factors of vulnerability changing, we develop a Vulnerability Changing Model (VCM) using four attraction factors to reflect how the process of urban developments leads to vulnerability changing. The factors are transport networks, land uses, production values of industries, and infrastructures. We then conduct a regression analysis to test the VCM. To illustrate the proposed methodology, the data are collected from the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan as well as the National Land Use Investigation and official census statistics. 3. Results and policy implications Results of CVAF analysis demonstrate heterogeneous patterns of vulnerability in the region, and highlight trends of long-term changes. The vulnerable areas unfold as clustered patterns and spatial analogues across regions, rather than randomly distributed. Highest cumulative vulnerability is concentrated in densely populated and downstream reaches (such as Taipei City) of the Danshui River in both time periods. When examining the VCM, it indicates that upper stream and more remote areas generally show low vulnerability, increases are observed in some areas between 1996 and 2006 due to land use intensification, industrial and infrastructure expansion. These findings suggest that land use planning should consider the socioeconomic progression and infrastructure investment factors that contribute to urban sprawl and address current as well as future urban developments vulnerable to hazard risk transmission. The cumulative vulnerability assessment, mapping methods and modelling presented here can be applied to other climate change and hazard risks to highlight priority areas for further investigation and contribute towards improving river basin management.

Centrifuge technique consistently overestimates vulnerability to water-stress induced cavitation in grapevines as confirmed with high resolution computed tomography

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Vulnerability to cavitation is a key variable defining the limits to drought resistance in woody plants (e.g. Kursar et al., 2009). This trait is typically assessed by a vulnerability curve, which can be generated by a range of methods including dehydration (Sperry et al., 1988) air injection (Cocha...

Vulnerability assessment to frost disaster in dieng volcanic highland using spatial multi-criteria evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pradana, A.; Rahmanu, Y. A.; Prabaningrum, I.; Nurafifa, I.; Hizbaron, D. R.

2018-04-01

Dieng Volcanic Highland is one of frost disaster prone area which is very unique phenomenon in tropical region. Frost indicated by appearance of frozen dew or ice layer on the ground or vegetation surface due air inversion and cold temperatures during midnight in dry season. Appearance of frost significantly causes plant damage and losses on agricultural land, while the impacts were strongly influenced by level of vulnerability within agricultural communities. This study aims to analyze the impact of frost on agricultural land in Dieng, to identify characteristics of physical, social, economic vulnerability and coping capacity of agricultural communities to frost disaster in Dieng, and to estimate total vulnerability of frost disasters in Dieng through SMCE scenario. Research was conducted in Dieng Village, Wonosobo and Dieng Kulon Village, Banjarnegara. Method to assess vulnerability level is performed by Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation (SMCE) method using ILWIS software through a combination of physical, social, and economic vulnerability regarding frost hazard, as well as coping capacity of farmers. Data collected by interview within different agricultural plots using questionnaire and in-depth interview method on frost affected agricultural land. Impact of frost mostly causes damage on potato agricultural land than any other types of commodities, such as carrot, leek or cabbage. Losses varies in range of 0 million to 55 million rupiah, at most events in range of 10 million to 15 million rupiah during frost season on July-August-September. Main factors determining vulnerability comes from crop losses, preparedness effort, and type of commodity. Agricultural land dominated by high level physical vulnerability (95.37 percent), high level social vulnerability (70.79 percent), moderate level economic vulnerability (79.23 percent) and moderate level coping capacity (73.18 percent). All five scenarios indicated that level of total vulnerability vary only from moderate level up to high level.

Vulnerability Assessment of Water Supply Systems: Status, Gaps and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheater, H. S.

2015-12-01

Conventional frameworks for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resource systems use cascades of climate and hydrological models to provide 'top-down' projections of future water availability, but these are subject to high uncertainty and are model and scenario-specific. Hence there has been recent interest in 'bottom-up' frameworks, which aim to evaluate system vulnerability to change in the context of possible future climate and/or hydrological conditions. Such vulnerability assessments are generic, and can be combined with updated information from top-down assessments as they become available. While some vulnerability methods use hydrological models to estimate water availability, fully bottom-up schemes have recently been proposed that directly map system vulnerability as a function of feasible changes in water supply characteristics. These use stochastic algorithms, based on reconstruction or reshuffling methods, by which multiple water supply realizations can be generated under feasible ranges of change in water supply conditions. The paper reports recent successes, and points to areas of future improvement. Advances in stochastic modeling and optimization can address some technical limitations in flow reconstruction, while various data mining and system identification techniques can provide possibilities to better condition realizations for consistency with top-down scenarios. Finally, we show that probabilistic and Bayesian frameworks together can provide a potential basis to combine information obtained from fully bottom-up analyses with projections available from climate and/or hydrological models in a fully integrated risk assessment framework for deep uncertainty.

Grid Transmission Expansion Planning Model Based on Grid Vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Quan; Wang, Xi; Li, Ting; Zhang, Quanming; Zhang, Hongli; Li, Huaqiang

2018-03-01

Based on grid vulnerability and uniformity theory, proposed global network structure and state vulnerability factor model used to measure different grid models. established a multi-objective power grid planning model which considering the global power network vulnerability, economy and grid security constraint. Using improved chaos crossover and mutation genetic algorithm to optimize the optimal plan. For the problem of multi-objective optimization, dimension is not uniform, the weight is not easy given. Using principal component analysis (PCA) method to comprehensive assessment of the population every generation, make the results more objective and credible assessment. the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model are validated by simulation results of Garver-6 bus system and Garver-18 bus.

Groundwater vulnerability assessment for the karst aquifer of Tanour and Rasoun spring using EPIK, COP, and travel time methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamdan, Ibraheem; Sauter, Martin; Margane, Armin; Ptak, Thomas; Wiegand, Bettina

2016-04-01

Key words: Karst, groundwater vulnerability, EPIK, COP, travel time, Jordan. Karst aquifers are especially sensitive to short-lived contaminants because of fast water travel times and a low storage capacity in the conduit system. Tanour and Rasoun karst springs located around 75 km northwest of the city of Amman in Jordan represent the main domestic water supply for the surrounding villages. Both springs suffer from pollution events especially during the winter season, either by microbiological contamination due to wastewater leakage from septic tanks or by wastewater discharge from local olive oil presses. To assess the vulnerability of the karst aquifer of Tanour and Rasoun spring and its sensitivity for pollution, two different intrinsic groundwater vulnerability methods were applied: EPIK and COP. In addition, a travel time vulnerability method was applied to determine the time water travels from different points in the catchment to the streams, as a function of land surface gradients and presumed lateral flow within the epikarst. For the application of the COP and EPIK, a detailed geological survey was carried out to determine karst features and the karst network development within the catchment area. In addition, parameters, such as soil data, long term daily precipitation data, land use and topographical data were collected. For the application of the travel time vulnerability method, flow length, hydraulic conductivity, effective porosity, and slope gradient was used in order to determining the travel time in days. ArcGIS software was used for map preparation. The results of the combined vulnerability methods (COP, EPIK and travel time) show a high percentage of "very high" to "moderate" vulnerable areas within the catchment area of Tanour and Rasoun karst springs. Therefore, protection of the catchment area of Tanour and Rasoun springs from pollution and proper management of land use types is urgently needed to maintain the quality of drinking water in the area.

An overview of data integration methods for regional assessment.

PubMed

Locantore, Nicholas W; Tran, Liem T; O'Neill, Robert V; McKinnis, Peter W; Smith, Elizabeth R; O'Connell, Michael

2004-06-01

The U.S. Environmental Protections Agency's (U.S. EPA) Regional Vulnerability Assessment(ReVA) program has focused much of its research over the last five years on developing and evaluating integration methods for spatial data. An initial strategic priority was to use existing data from monitoring programs, model results, and other spatial data. Because most of these data were not collected with an intention of integrating into a regional assessment of conditions and vulnerabilities, issues exist that may preclude the use of some methods or require some sort of data preparation. Additionally, to support multi-criteria decision-making, methods need to be able to address a series of assessment questions that provide insights into where environmental risks are a priority. This paper provides an overview of twelve spatial integration methods that can be applied towards regional assessment, along with preliminary results as to how sensitive each method is to data issues that will likely be encountered with the use of existing data.

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability in the coastal region of Oman using DRASTIC index method in GIS environment.

PubMed

Jamrah, Ahmad; Al-Futaisi, Ahmed; Rajmohan, Natarajan; Al-Yaroubi, Saif

2008-12-01

A study was carried out to develop a vulnerability map for Barka region in the North Batina of Oman using DRASTIC vulnerability index method in GIS environment. DRASTIC layers were created using data from published reports and the seven DRASTIC layers were processed by the ArcGIS geographic information system. Finally, DRASTIC maps were created for 1995 and 2004 to understand the long-term changes in the vulnerability index. DRASTIC vulnerability maps were evaluated using groundwater quality data such as chemical and biological parameters. DRASTIC vulnerability maps of 1995 and 2004 indicate that the northern part of Barka is more vulnerable to pollution than southern part and the central part of Barka also shows high relative vulnerability which is mostly related to the high conductivity values. Moreover, the changes in water level due to high abstraction rate of groundwater reflect in the vulnerability maps and low vulnerability area is increased in the southern part during 2004 compared to 1995. Moreover, regional distribution maps of nitrate, chloride and total and fecal coliforms are well correlated with DRASTIC vulnerability maps. In contrast to this, even though DRASTIC method predicted the central part of the study region is highly vulnerable, both chemical and biological parameters show lower concentrations in this region compared to coastal belt, which is mainly due to agricultural and urban development. In Barka, urban development and agricultural activities are very high in coastal region compared to southern and central part of the study area. Hence, this study concluded that DRASTIC method is also applicable in coastal region having ubiquitous contamination sources.

The classification and assessment of vulnerability of man-land system of oasis city in arid area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Chao; Lei, Jun; Jin, Fengjun

2013-12-01

Oasis city system is the center of the man-land relationship in arid area and it is the most influential spatial and temporal multiple dynamic system. Oasis city system is not only the largest area where artificial disturbances occur at a regional scale but also the most concentrated area of human activity in arid area. In this study, we developed an applicable and convenient method to assess vulnerability of man-land system of oasis cities with vulnerability indicator system, respectively evaluating the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of the eco-environment system, the economic system and the social system. The results showed that the sensitivity and vulnerability of oasis cities in Xinjiang, China have significant differences while their adaptability does little. In order to find the inherent differences in the vulnerability of oasis cities, triangle methodology has been adopted to divide Xinjiang oasis cities into five types. Some adaptive developing policies specific for individual cities are also proposed based on their vulnerability type and constraining factors.

Assessing groundwater vulnerability in the Kinshasa region, DR Congo, using a calibrated DRASTIC model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mfumu Kihumba, Antoine; Vanclooster, Marnik; Ndembo Longo, Jean

2017-02-01

This study assessed the vulnerability of groundwater against pollution in the Kinshasa region, DR Congo, as a support of a groundwater protection program. The parametric vulnerability model (DRASTIC) was modified and calibrated to predict the intrinsic vulnerability as well as the groundwater pollution risk. The method uses groundwater body specific parameters for the calibration of the factor ratings and weightings of the original DRASTIC model. These groundwater specific parameters are inferred from the statistical relation between the original DRASTIC model and observed nitrate pollution for a specific period. In addition, site-specific land use parameters are integrated into the method. The method is fully embedded in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Following these modifications, the correlation coefficient between groundwater pollution risk and observed nitrate concentrations for the 2013-2014 survey improved from r = 0.42, for the original DRASTIC model, to r = 0.61 for the calibrated model. As a way to validate this pollution risk map, observed nitrate concentrations from another survey (2008) are compared to pollution risk indices showing a good degree of coincidence with r = 0.51. The study shows that a calibration of a vulnerability model is recommended when vulnerability maps are used for groundwater resource management and land use planning at the regional scale and that it is adapted to a specific area.

Parental Depression and Child Cognitive Vulnerability Predict Children’s Cortisol Reactivity

PubMed Central

Hayden, Elizabeth P.; Hankin, Benjamin L.; Mackrell, Sarah V.M.; Sheikh, Haroon I.; Jordan, Patricia L.; Dozois, David J.A.; Singh, Shiva M.; Olino, Thomas M.; Badanes, Lisa S.

2015-01-01

Risk for depression is expressed across multiple levels of analysis. For example, parental depression and cognitive vulnerability are known markers of depression risk, but no study has examined their interactive effects on children’s cortisol reactivity, a likely mediator of early depression risk. We examined relations across these different levels of vulnerability using cross-sectional and longitudinal methods in two community samples of children. Children were assessed for cognitive vulnerability using self-reports (Study 1; n = 244) and tasks tapping memory and attentional bias (Study 2; n = 205), and their parents were assessed for depression history using structured clinical interviews. In both samples, children participated in standardized stress tasks and cortisol reactivity was assessed. Cross-sectionally and longitudinally, parental depression history and child cognitive vulnerability interacted to predict children’s cortisol reactivity; specifically, associations between parent depression and elevated child cortisol activity were found when children also showed elevated depressotypic attributions, as well as attentional and memory biases. Findings indicate that models of children’s emerging depression risk may benefit from the examination of the interactive effects of multiple sources of vulnerability across levels of analysis. PMID:25422972

Vulnerability Assessment of Natural Disasters for Small and Mid-Sized Streams due to Climate Change and Stream Improvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, D.; Jun, H. D.; Kim, S.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment plays an important role in drawing up climate change adaptation plans. Although there are some studies on broad vulnerability assessment in Korea, there have been very few studies to develop and apply locally focused and specific sector-oriented climate change vulnerability indicators. Especially, there has seldom been any study to investigate the effect of an adaptation project on assessing the vulnerability status to climate change for fundamental local governments. In order to relieve adverse effects of climate change, Korean government has performed the project of the Major Four Rivers (Han, Geum, Nakdong and Yeongsan river) Restoration since 2008. It is expected that water level in main stream of 4 rivers will be dropped through this project, but flood effect will be mainly occurred in small and mid-sized streams which flows in main stream. Hence, we examined how much the project of the major four rivers restoration relieves natural disasters. Conceptual framework of vulnerability-resilience index to climate change for the Korean fundamental local governments is defined as a function of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Then, statistical data on scores of proxy variables assumed to comprise climate change vulnerability for local governments are collected. Proxy variables and estimated temporary weights of them are selected by surveying a panel of experts using Delphi method, and final weights are determined by modified Entropy method. Developed vulnerability-resilience index was applied to Korean fundamental local governments and it is calculated under each scenario as follows. (1) Before the major four rivers restoration, (2) 100 years after represented climate change condition without the major four rivers restoration, (3) After the major four rivers restoration without representing climate change (this means present climate condition) and (4) After the major four rivers restoration and 100 years after represented climate change condition. In the results of calculated vulnerability-resilience index of each scenario, it can be noticed that vulnerability of watersheds which are located near main stream of four rivers is alleviated, but because of climate change, vulnerability is getting high in most watersheds. Also, considering future climate change and river restoration, vulnerability of several watersheds is relieved by river restoration. Acknowledges This work was funded by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) in Korea Program under Grant NEMA-10-NH-04.

Identification of dominating factors affecting vadose zone vulnerability by a simulation method

PubMed Central

Li, Juan; Xi, Beidou; Cai, Wutian; Yang, Yang; Jia, Yongfeng; Li, Xiang; Lv, Yonggao; Lv, Ningqing; Huan, Huan; Yang, Jinjin

2017-01-01

The characteristics of vadose zone vulnerability dominating factors (VDFs) are closely related to the migration and transformation mechanisms of contaminants in the vadose zone, which directly affect the state of the contaminants percolating to the groundwater. This study analyzes the hydrogeological profile of the pore water regions in the vadose zone, and conceptualizes the vadose zone as single lithologic, double lithologic, or multi lithologic. To accurately determine how the location of the pollution source influences the groundwater, we classify the permeabilities (thicknesses) of different media into clay-layer and non-clay-layer permeabilities (thicknesses), and introduce the maximum pollution thickness. Meanwhile, the physicochemical reactions of the contaminants in the vadose zone are represented by the soil adsorption and soil degradability. The VDFs are determined from the factors and parameters in groundwater vulnerability assessment. The VDFs are identified and sequenced in simulations and a sensitivity analysis. When applied to three polluted sites in China, the method improved the weighting of factors in groundwater vulnerability assessment, and increased the reliability of predicting groundwater vulnerability to contaminants. PMID:28387232

Assessing intrinsic and specific vulnerability models ability to indicate groundwater vulnerability to groups of similar pesticides: A comparative study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Douglas, Steven; Dixon, Barnali; Griffin, Dale W.

2018-01-01

With continued population growth and increasing use of fresh groundwater resources, protection of this valuable resource is critical. A cost effective means to assess risk of groundwater contamination potential will provide a useful tool to protect these resources. Integrating geospatial methods offers a means to quantify the risk of contaminant potential in cost effective and spatially explicit ways. This research was designed to compare the ability of intrinsic (DRASTIC) and specific (Attenuation Factor; AF) vulnerability models to indicate groundwater vulnerability areas by comparing model results to the presence of pesticides from groundwater sample datasets. A logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between the environmental variables and the presence or absence of pesticides within regions of varying vulnerability. According to the DRASTIC model, more than 20% of the study area is very highly vulnerable. Approximately 30% is very highly vulnerable according to the AF model. When groundwater concentrations of individual pesticides were compared to model predictions, the results were mixed. Model predictability improved when concentrations of the group of similar pesticides were compared to model results. Compared to the DRASTIC model, the AF model more accurately predicts the distribution of the number of contaminated wells within each vulnerability class.

[Vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under sea-level rise].

PubMed

Cui, Li-Fang; Wang, Ning; Ge, Zhen-Ming; Zhang, Li-Quan

2014-02-01

To study the response of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on the coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisite for securing coastal ecosystems. In this paper, the possible impacts of sea level rise caused by climate change on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model and IPCC definition on the vulnerability. An indicator system for vulnerability assessment was established, in which sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, habitat elevation, inundation threshold of habitat and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators. A quantitatively spatial assessment method based on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability index for the assessment of coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the scenarios of sea-level rise. The vulnerability assessments on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary in 2030 and 2050 were performed under two sea-level rise scenarios (the present sea-level rise trend over recent 30 years and IPCC A1F1 scenario). The results showed that with the projection in 2030 under the present trend of sea-level rise (0.26 cm x a(-1)), 6.6% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.8% and 0.2% of the coastal wetlands were in low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively. With the projection in 2030 under the A1F1 scenario (0.59 cm x a(-1)), 9.0% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.5%, 1.0% and 0.3% of the coastal wetlands were in the low, moderate and high vulnerabilities, respectively.

An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

PubMed

Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

2016-11-11

Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serre, D.; Barroca, B.

2009-04-01

Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city Bruno Barroca1, Damien Serre2 1Laboratory of Urban Engineering, Environment and Building (L G U E H) - Université de Marne-la-Vallée - Pôle Ville, 5, Bd Descartes - Bâtiment Lavoisier - 77454 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2 - France 2City of Paris Engineering School, Construction - Environment Department, 15 rue Fénelon, 75010 Paris, France In France, as in Europe and more generally throughout the world, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity over the last ten years, and there are more instances of rivers bursting their banks, aggravating the impact of the flooding of areas supposedly protected by flood defenses. Despite efforts made to well maintain the flood defense assets, we often observe flood defense failures leading to finally increase flood risk in protected area during major flood events. Furthermore, flood forecasting models, although they benefit continuous improvements, remain partly inaccurate due to uncertainties populated all along data calculation processes. These circumstances obliged stakeholders and the scientific communities to manage flood risk by integrating new concepts like stakes management, vulnerability assessments and more recently urban resilience development. Definitively, the goal is to reduce flood risk by managing of course flood defenses and improving flood forecasting models, but also stakes and vulnerability of flooded areas to achieve urban resilience face to flood events. Vulnerability to flood is essentially concentrated in urban areas. Assessing vulnerability of a city is very difficult. Indeed, urban area is a complex system composed by a sum of technical sub-systems as complex as the urban area itself. Assessing city vulnerability consists in talking into account each sub system vulnerability and integrating all direct and indirect impacts generally depending from city shape and city spatial organization. At this time, although some research activities have been undertaken, there are no specific methods and tools to assess flood vulnerability at the scale of the city. Indeed, by studying literature we can list some vulnerability indicators and a few Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. But generally indicators and GIS are not developed specifically at the city scale: often a regional scale is used. Analyzing vulnerability at this scale needs more accurate and formalized indicators and GIS tools. The second limit of existing GIS is temporal: even if vulnerability could be assessed and localized through GIS, such tools cannot assist city managers in their decision to efficiency recover after a severe flood event. Due to scale and temporal limits, methods and tools available to assess urban vulnerability need large improvements. Talking into account all these considerations and limits, our research is focusing on: • vulnerability indicators design; • recovery scenarios design; • GIS for city vulnerability assessment and recovery scenarios. Dealing with vulnerability indicators, the goal is to design a set of indicators of city sub systems. Sub systems are seen like assets of high value and complex and interdependent infrastructure networks (i.e. power supplies, communications, water, transport etc.). The infrastructure networks are critical for the continuity of economic activities as well as for the people's basic living needs. Their availability is also required for fast and effective recovery after flood disasters. The severity of flood damage therefore largely depends on the degree that both high value assets and critical urban infrastructure are affected, either directly or indirectly. To face the challenge of designing indicators, a functional model of the city system (and sub systems) has to be built to analyze the system response to flood solicitation. Then, a coherent and an efficient set of vulnerability of indicators could be built up. With such methods city stakeholders will be informed on how and how much their systems are vulnerable. It is a first level of information that has to be completed to become a real decision making tool. Indeed, we have seen that major floods cause almost always failures in the flood defense system. So potentially the city could face a flood event and managers recovery works. Knowing the vulnerability of the city, direct and indirect impacts, how can managers optimize recovery actions? Our research will focus first on proposing recovery scenarios based on the city system and second on vulnerability indicators to first limit damages during floods and to speed up recovery actions. At last, a GIS will be developed to assist stakeholders to take spatial measures to reduce city system weakness before a flood event and to help them to decide on how to optimize recovery actions after a flood event. Dealing with these two temporal scales will allow obtaining more flood resilient cities.

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability in the Daule aquifer, Ecuador, using the susceptibility index method.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Luís; Pindo, Juan Carlos; Dominguez-Granda, Luis

2017-01-01

The Guayas region in Ecuador is economically very important, producing 68% of the national crops. The main agricultural activities threaten the groundwater therein with nitrate contamination given the large fertiliser and water needs. The present work tests the applicability of the susceptibility index assessment method in evaluating the impact of agricultural activities on groundwater quality, using as a case study an aquifer of the Guayas river basin in Ecuador. The index adapts four parameters of the DRASTIC method and incorporated a new land use parameter. Results show that the areas highly vulnerable to contamination are located in irrigation perimeters of dominant paddy fields associated with the high recharge rates in the alluvial deposits. Respectively, moderately vulnerable and low-vulnerability areas correspond to aquatic environments and forests, semi-natural zones and water bodies. One of the main contributions of the Daule aquifer vulnerability is likely its wide, flat topography. A great part of the aquifer is at high risk of contamination by nitrates if a code of good agricultural practices is not applied. Therefore the implementation of a monitoring network to control the nitrates concentrations is the first step to assure groundwater quality for drinking purposes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Socio-economic vulnerability to natural hazards - proposal for an indicator-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eidsvig, U.; McLean, A.; Vangelsten, B. V.; Kalsnes, B.; Ciurean, R. L.; Argyroudis, S.; Winter, M.; Corominas, J.; Mavrouli, O. C.; Fotopoulou, S.; Pitilakis, K.; Baills, A.; Malet, J. P.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment, with respect to natural hazards, is a complex process that must consider multiple dimensions of vulnerability, including both physical and social factors. Physical vulnerability refers to conditions of physical assets, and may be modeled by the intensity and magnitude of the hazard, the degree of physical protection provided by the natural and built environment, and the physical robustness of the exposed elements. Social vulnerability refers to the underlying factors leading to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand impacts from the natural hazards. Social vulnerability models can be used in combination with physical vulnerability models to estimate both direct losses, i.e. losses that occur during and immediately after the impact, as well as indirect losses, i.e. long-term effects of the event. Direct impact of a landslide typically includes casualties and damages to buildings and infrastructure while indirect losses may e.g. include business closures or limitations in public services. The direct losses are often assessed using physical vulnerability indicators (e.g. construction material, height of buildings), while indirect losses are mainly assessed using social indicators (e.g. economical resources, demographic conditions). Within the EC-FP7 SafeLand research project, an indicator-based method was proposed to assess relative socio-economic vulnerability to landslides. The indicators represent the underlying factors which influence a community's ability to prepare for, deal with, and recover from the damage associated with landslides. The proposed model includes indicators representing demographic, economic and social characteristics as well as indicators representing the degree of preparedness and recovery capacity. Although the model focuses primarily on the indirect losses, it could easily be extended to include more physical indicators which account for the direct losses. Each indicator is individually ranked from 1 (lowest vulnerability) to 5 (highest vulnerability) and weighted, based on its overall degree of influence. The indicator weights range from 1 (least influential) to 3 (most influential) and have been selected on the basis of expert judgment. The final vulnerability score is taken as the weighted average of the individual indicators. The method was applied for locations in Norway, Greece, France, Andorra and Romania. The purpose of the case studies was to compare vulnerability levels and to test and possibly improve the methodology. In the case studies, similar vulnerability scores were obtained for the locations in Norway, Andorra and France. A higher vulnerability score was obtained for the location in Greece, while the highest vulnerability score was obtained for the location in Romania. The higher score for the locations in Greece and Romania are mainly due to economic conditions and conditions regarding preparedness and recovery.

Novel method of vulnerability assessment of simple landfills area using the multimedia, multipathway and multireceptor risk assessment (3MRA) model, China.

PubMed

Yuan, Ying; He, Xiao-Song; Xi, Bei-Dou; Wei, Zi-Min; Tan, Wen-Bing; Gao, Ru-Tai

2016-11-01

Vulnerability assessment of simple landfills was conducted using the multimedia, multipathway and multireceptor risk assessment (3MRA) model for the first time in China. The minimum safe threshold of six contaminants (benzene, arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)], divalent mercury [Hg(II)] and divalent nickel [Ni(II)]) in landfill and waste pile models were calculated by the 3MRA model. Furthermore, the vulnerability indexes of the six contaminants were predicted based on the model calculation. The results showed that the order of health risk vulnerability index was As > Hg(II) > Cr(VI) > benzene > Cd > Ni(II) in the landfill model, whereas the ecology risk vulnerability index was in the order of As > Hg(II) > Cr(VI) > Cd > benzene > Ni(II). In the waste pile model, the order of health risk vulnerability index was benzene > Hg(II) > Cr(VI) > As > Cd and Ni(II), whereas the ecology risk vulnerability index was in the order of Hg(II) > Cd > Cr(VI) > As > benzene > Ni(II). These results indicated that As, Hg(II) and Cr(VI) were the high risk contaminants for the case of a simple landfill in China; the concentration of these in soil and groundwater around the simple landfill should be strictly monitored, and proper mediation is also recommended for simple landfills with a high concentration of contaminants. © The Author(s) 2016.

Vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change: the views of government stakeholders and other specialists in Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background There is overwhelming scientific evidence that human activities have changed and will continue to change the climate of the Earth. Eco-environmental health, which refers to the interdependencies between ecological systems and population health and well-being, is likely to be significantly influenced by climate change. The aim of this study was to examine perceptions from government stakeholders and other relevant specialists about the threat of climate change, their capacity to deal with it, and how to develop and implement a framework for assessing vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. Methods Two focus groups were conducted in Brisbane, Australia with representatives from relevant government agencies, non-governmental organisations, and the industry sector (n = 15) involved in the discussions. The participants were specialists on climate change and public health from governmental agencies, industry, and non-governmental organisations in South-East Queensland. Results The specialists perceived climate change to be a threat to eco-environmental health and had substantial knowledge about possible implications and impacts. A range of different methods for assessing vulnerability were suggested by the participants and the complexity of assessment when dealing with multiple hazards was acknowledged. Identified factors influencing vulnerability were perceived to be of a social, physical and/or economic nature. They included population growth, the ageing population with associated declines in general health and changes in the vulnerability of particular geographical areas due to for example, increased coastal development, and financial stress. Education, inter-sectoral collaboration, emergency management (e.g. development of early warning systems), and social networks were all emphasised as a basis for adapting to climate change. To develop a framework, different approaches were discussed for assessing eco-environmental health vulnerability, including literature reviews to examine the components of vulnerability such as natural hazard risk and exposure and to investigate already existing frameworks for assessing vulnerability. Conclusion The study has addressed some important questions in regard to government stakeholders and other specialists' views on the threat of climate change and its potential impacts on eco-environmental health. These findings may have implications in climate change and public health decision-making. PMID:20663227

A modified SINTACS method for groundwater vulnerability and pollution risk assessment in highly anthropized regions based on NO3- and SO42- concentrations.

PubMed

Busico, Gianluigi; Kazakis, Nerantzis; Colombani, Nicolò; Mastrocicco, Micòl; Voudouris, Konstantinos; Tedesco, Dario

2017-12-31

Groundwater vulnerability and risk assessment are worldwide tools in supporting groundwater protection and land planning. In this study, we used three of these different methodologies applied to the Campanian Plain located in southern Italy: SINTACS, AVI and LOS. However, their capability to describe the observed chemical pollution of the area has resulted quite poor. For such a reason, a modified SINTACS method has been then implemented in the area in order to get a more reliable view of groundwater vulnerability. NO 3 - and SO 4 2- from more than 400 monitoring wells were used for specific vulnerability assessment. Land use was chosen as key parameter to infer the risk of groundwater pollution in our area. The new methodology seems to show a higher correlation with observed NO 3 - concentrations and a more reliable identification of aquifer's pollution hot spots. The main sources of NO 3 - were found in sub-urban areas, where vulnerability and risk are higher than in other areas. Otherwise due to reducing conditions triggered by the presence of elevated sedimentary organic matter and peat, concentrations below agricultural areas were lower than in sub-urban areas. The SO 4 2- specific vulnerability map showed a positive correlation with observed concentrations, due to geogenic and anthropogenic SO 4 2- sources present in the area. The combination of both NO 3 - and SO 4 2- derived risk maps becomes essential to improve the conceptual model of aquifer pollution in this severely anthropized area. The application of this new and original approach shed light on the strengths and weaknesses of each of the described previous methods and clearly showed how anthropogenic activities have to be taken into account in the assessment process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Latin hypercube approach to estimate uncertainty in ground water vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gurdak, J.J.; McCray, J.E.; Thyne, G.; Qi, S.L.

2007-01-01

A methodology is proposed to quantify prediction uncertainty associated with ground water vulnerability models that were developed through an approach that coupled multivariate logistic regression with a geographic information system (GIS). This method uses Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) to illustrate the propagation of input error and estimate uncertainty associated with the logistic regression predictions of ground water vulnerability. Central to the proposed method is the assumption that prediction uncertainty in ground water vulnerability models is a function of input error propagation from uncertainty in the estimated logistic regression model coefficients (model error) and the values of explanatory variables represented in the GIS (data error). Input probability distributions that represent both model and data error sources of uncertainty were simultaneously sampled using a Latin hypercube approach with logistic regression calculations of probability of elevated nonpoint source contaminants in ground water. The resulting probability distribution represents the prediction intervals and associated uncertainty of the ground water vulnerability predictions. The method is illustrated through a ground water vulnerability assessment of the High Plains regional aquifer. Results of the LHS simulations reveal significant prediction uncertainties that vary spatially across the regional aquifer. Additionally, the proposed method enables a spatial deconstruction of the prediction uncertainty that can lead to improved prediction of ground water vulnerability. ?? 2007 National Ground Water Association.

Fuzzy decision analysis for integrated environmental vulnerability assessment of the mid-Atlantic Region.

PubMed

Tran, Liem T; Knight, C Gregory; O'Neill, Robert V; Smith, Elizabeth R; Riitters, Kurt H; Wickham, James

2002-06-01

A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators was developed. This was a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The method was capable of ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumulative impacts across a large region. Using data on land cover, population, roads, streams, air pollution, and topography of the Mid-Atlantic region, we were able to point out areas that were in relatively poor condition and/or vulnerable to future deterioration. The method offered an easy and comprehensive way to combine the strengths of fuzzy set theory and the AHP for ecological assessment. Furthermore, the suggested method can serve as a building block for the evaluation of environmental policies.

Rainfall-induced landslide vulnerability Assessment in urban area reflecting Urban structure and building characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, C.; Cho, M.; Lee, D.

2017-12-01

Landslide vulnerability assessment methodology of urban area is proposed with urban structure and building charateristics which can consider total damage cost of climate impacts. We used probabilistic analysis method for modeling rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility by slope stability analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. And We combined debris flows with considering spatial movements under topographical condition and built environmental condition. Urban vulnerability of landslide is assessed by two categories: physical demages and urban structure aspect. Physical vulnerability is related to buildings, road, other ubran infra. Urban structure vulnerability is considered a function of the socio-economic factors, trigger factor of secondary damage, and preparedness level of the local government. An index-based model is developed to evaluate the life and indirect damage under landslide as well as the resilience ability against disasters. The analysis was performed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment because GIS can deal efficiently with a large volume of spatial data. The results of the landslide susceptibility assessment were compared with the landslide inventory, and the proposed approach demonstrated good predictive performance. The general trend found in this study indicates that the higher population density areas under a weaker fiscal condition that are located at the downstream of mountainous areas are more vulnerable than the areas in opposite conditions.

Vulnerability survival analysis: a novel approach to vulnerability management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farris, Katheryn A.; Sullivan, John; Cybenko, George

2017-05-01

Computer security vulnerabilities span across large, enterprise networks and have to be mitigated by security engineers on a routine basis. Presently, security engineers will assess their "risk posture" through quantifying the number of vulnerabilities with a high Common Vulnerability Severity Score (CVSS). Yet, little to no attention is given to the length of time by which vulnerabilities persist and survive on the network. In this paper, we review a novel approach to quantifying the length of time a vulnerability persists on the network, its time-to-death, and predictors of lower vulnerability survival rates. Our contribution is unique in that we apply the cox proportional hazards regression model to real data from an operational IT environment. This paper provides a mathematical overview of the theory behind survival analysis methods, a description of our vulnerability data, and an interpretation of the results.

Vulnerability Assessment Using a Fuzzy Logic Based Method

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-12-01

evaluating computer security vulnerabilities is very labor intensive. To help ease this workload, this thesis presents two automated methods possibly...eal 3n, 0 e) 0 n It -f0 . nts reg"roreg Iths OU raen estre -tte In Vt )thef awfict Of this ~.,i~t 14,-, A I’ K1- 2 3" toe 17 %1d3.rV. ~ 0 C .~ Ats ,glt

Physically-Based Assessment of Intrinsic Groundwater Resource Vulnerability in AN Urban Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graf, T.; Therrien, R.; Lemieux, J.; Molson, J. W.

2013-12-01

Several methods exist to assess intrinsic groundwater (re)source vulnerability for the purpose of sustainable groundwater management and protection. However, several methods are empirical and limited in their application to specific types of hydrogeological systems. Recent studies suggest that a physically-based approach could be better suited to provide a general, conceptual and operational basis for groundwater vulnerability assessment. A novel method for physically-based assessment of intrinsic aquifer vulnerability is currently under development and tested to explore the potential of an integrated modelling approach, combining groundwater travel time probability and future scenario modelling in conjunction with the fully integrated HydroGeoSphere model. To determine the intrinsic groundwater resource vulnerability, a fully coupled 2D surface water and 3D variably-saturated groundwater flow model in conjunction with a 3D geological model (GoCAD) has been developed for a case study of the Rivière Saint-Charles (Québec/Canada) regional scale, urban watershed. The model has been calibrated under transient flow conditions for the hydrogeological, variably-saturated subsurface system, coupled with the overland flow zone by taking into account monthly recharge variation and evapotranspiration. To better determine the intrinsic groundwater vulnerability, two independent approaches are considered and subsequently combined in a simple, holistic multi-criteria-decision analyse. Most data for the model comes from an extensive hydrogeological database for the watershed, whereas data gaps have been complemented via field tests and literature review. The subsurface is composed of nine hydrofacies, ranging from unconsolidated fluvioglacial sediments to low permeability bedrock. The overland flow zone is divided into five major zones (Urban, Rural, Forest, River and Lake) to simulate the differences in landuse, whereas the unsaturated zone is represented via the model integrated Van-Genuchten function. The model setup and optimisation turn out to be the most challenging part because of the non-trivial nature (due to the highly non-linear PDEs) of the coupling procedure between the surface and subsurface domain, while keeping realistic parameter ranges and obtaining realistic simulation results in both domains. The model calibration is based on water level monitoring as well as daily mean river discharge measurement at different gauge stations within the catchment. It is intended to create multiple model outcomes for the numerical modelling of the groundwater vulnerability to take into account uncertainty due to the model input data. The next step of the overall vulnerability assessment consists in modelling future vulnerability scenario(s), applying realistic changes to the model by using PEST with SENSAN for subsequent sensitivity analysis. The PEST model could also potentially be used for a model recalibration as a function of the model parameters sensitivity (simple perturbation method). Preliminary results showing a good fit between the observed and simulated water levels and hydrographs. However the simulated water depth at the overland flow domain as well as the simulated saturation distribution in the porous media domain are still showing room for improvement of the numerical model.

Social vulnerability assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis (SEVI model) and the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI model) - a case study for Bucharest, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armaş, I.; Gavriş, A.

2013-06-01

In recent decades, the development of vulnerability frameworks has enlarged the research in the natural hazards field. Despite progress in developing the vulnerability studies, there is more to investigate regarding the quantitative approach and clarification of the conceptual explanation of the social component. At the same time, some disaster-prone areas register limited attention. Among these, Romania's capital city, Bucharest, is the most earthquake-prone capital in Europe and the tenth in the world. The location is used to assess two multi-criteria methods for aggregating complex indicators: the social vulnerability index (SoVI model) and the spatial multi-criteria social vulnerability index (SEVI model). Using the data of the 2002 census we reduce the indicators through a factor analytical approach to create the indices and examine if they bear any resemblance to the known vulnerability of Bucharest city through an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). This is a critical issue that may provide better understanding of the social vulnerability in the city and appropriate information for authorities and stakeholders to consider in their decision making. The study emphasizes that social vulnerability is an urban process that increased in a post-communist Bucharest, raising the concern that the population at risk lacks the capacity to cope with disasters. The assessment of the indices indicates a significant and similar clustering pattern of the census administrative units, with an overlap between the clustering areas affected by high social vulnerability. Our proposed SEVI model suggests adjustment sensitivity, useful in the expert-opinion accuracy.

How to Assess Vulnerabilities of Water Policies to Global Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, A.; Haasnoot, M.; Weijs, S.

2017-12-01

Water managers are confronted with uncertainties arising from hydrological, societal, economical and political drivers. To manage these uncertainties two paradigms have been identified: top-down and bottom-up approaches. Top-down or prediction-based approaches use socio-economic scenarios together with a discrete set of GCM projections (often downscaled) to assess the expected impact of drivers and policies on water resource system through various hydrological and social systems models. Adaptation strategies to alleviate these impacts are then identified and tested against the scenarios. To address GCM and downscaling uncertainties, these approaches put more focus on climate predictions, rather than the decision problem itself. Triggered by the wish to have a more scenario-neutral approach and address downscaling uncertainties, recent analyses have been shifted towards vulnerability-based (bottom-up or decision-centric) approaches. They begin at the local scale by addressing socio-economic responses to climate, often involving stakeholder's input; identify vulnerabilities under a larger sample of plausible futures and evaluate sensitivity and robustness of possible adaptation options. Several bottom-up approaches have emerged so far and are increasingly recommended. Fundamentally they share several core ideas, however, subtle differences exist in vulnerability assessment, visualization tools for exploring vulnerabilities and computational methods used for identifying robust water policies. Through this study, we try to identify how these approaches are progressing, how the climate and non-climate uncertainties are being confronted and how to integrate existing and new tools. We find that choice of a method may depend on the number of vulnerability drivers identified and type of threshold levels (environmental conditions or policy objectives) defined. Certain approaches are suited well for assessing adaptive capacities, tipping points and sequencing of decisions. However, visualization of the vulnerability domain is still challenging if multiple drivers are present. New emerging tools are focused on generating synthetic scenarios, addressing multiple objectives, linking decision-making frameworks to adaptation pathways and communicating risks to the stakeholders.

Classification of aquifer vulnerability using K-means cluster analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javadi, S.; Hashemy, S. M.; Mohammadi, K.; Howard, K. W. F.; Neshat, A.

2017-06-01

Groundwater is one of the main sources of drinking and agricultural water in arid and semi-arid regions but is becoming increasingly threatened by contamination. Vulnerability mapping has been used for many years as an effective tool for assessing the potential for aquifer pollution and the most common method of intrinsic vulnerability assessment is DRASTIC (Depth to water table, net Recharge, Aquifer media, Soil media, Topography, Impact of vadose zone and hydraulic Conductivity). An underlying problem with the DRASTIC approach relates to the subjectivity involved in selecting relative weightings for each of the DRASTIC factors and assigning rating values to ranges or media types within each factor. In this study, a clustering technique is introduced that removes some of the subjectivity associated with the indexing method. It creates a vulnerability map that does not rely on fixed weights and ratings and, thereby provides a more objective representation of the system's physical characteristics. This methodology was applied to an aquifer in Iran and compared with the standard DRASTIC approach using the water quality parameters nitrate, chloride and total dissolved solids (TDS) as surrogate indicators of aquifer vulnerability. The proposed method required only four of DRASTIC's seven factors - depth to groundwater, hydraulic conductivity, recharge value and the nature of the vadose zone, to produce a superior result. For nitrate, chloride, and TDS, respectively, the clustering approach delivered Pearson correlation coefficients that were 15, 22 and 5 percentage points higher than those obtained for the DRASTIC method.

INTEGRATION OF SPATIAL DATA: EVALUATION OF METHODS BASED ON DATA ISSUES AND ASSESSMENT QUESTIONS

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program has focused initially on the synthesis of existing data. We have used the same set of spatial data and synthesized these data using a total of 11 existing and newly developed integration methods. These methods were evaluated ...

Watershed Reliability, Resilience And Vulnerability Analysis Under Uncertainty Using Water Quality Data

EPA Science Inventory

A method for assessment of watershed health is developed by employing measures of reliability, resilience and vulnerability (R-R-V) using stream water quality data. Observed water quality data are usually sparse, so that a water quality time series is often reconstructed using s...

Language Impairment and Comorbid Vulnerabilities among Young People in Custody

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hughes, Nathan; Chitsabesan, Prathiba; Bryan, Karen; Borschmann, Rohan; Swain, Nathaniel; Lennox, Charlotte; Shaw, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Background: While the prevalence of language and communication difficulties among young people in custody is well established, holistic understanding of the complexity and co-occurrence of additional vulnerabilities among this population are rare. Methods: Ninety-three young people in a young offenders institution in England were assessed using…

Performance-based methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibin, Lin; Lili, Xie; Maosheng, Gong; Ming, Li

2010-06-01

This paper presents a performance-based methodology for the assessment of seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the HAZUS methodology and the improved capacitydemand-diagram method. The spectral displacement ( S d ) of performance points on a capacity curve is used to estimate the damage level of a building. The relationship between S d and peak ground acceleration (PGA) is established, and then a new vulnerability function is expressed in terms of PGA. Furthermore, the expected value of the seismic capacity index (SCev) is provided to estimate the seismic capacity of buildings based on the probability distribution of damage levels and the corresponding seismic capacity index. The results indicate that the proposed vulnerability methodology is able to assess seismic damage of a large number of building stock directly and quickly following an earthquake. The SCev provides an effective index to measure the seismic capacity of buildings and illustrate the relationship between the seismic capacity of buildings and seismic action. The estimated result is compared with damage surveys of the cities of Dujiangyan and Jiangyou in the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, revealing that the methodology is acceptable for seismic risk assessment and decision making. The primary reasons for discrepancies between the estimated results and the damage surveys are discussed.

Examining social, physical, and environmental dimensions of tornado vulnerability in Texas.

PubMed

Siebeneck, Laura

2016-01-01

To develop a vulnerability model that captures the social, physical, and environmental dimensions of tornado vulnerability of Texas counties. Guided by previous research and methodologies proposed in the hazards and emergency management literature, a principle components analysis is used to create a tornado vulnerability index. Data were gathered from open source information available through the US Census Bureau, American Community Surveys, and the Texas Natural Resources Information System. Texas counties. The results of the model yielded three indices that highlight geographic variability of social vulnerability, built environment vulnerability, and tornado hazard throughout Texas. Further analyses suggest that counties with the highest tornado vulnerability include those with high population densities and high tornado risk. This article demonstrates one method for assessing statewide tornado vulnerability and presents how the results of this type of analysis can be applied by emergency managers towards the reduction of tornado vulnerability in their communities.

Taxonomy of USA east coast fishing communities in terms of social vulnerability and resilience

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pollnac, Richard B., E-mail: pollnac3@gmail.com; Seara, Tarsila, E-mail: tarsila.seara@noaa.gov; Colburn, Lisa L., E-mail: lisa.l.colburn@noaa.gov

Increased concern with the impacts that changing coastal environments can have on coastal fishing communities led to a recent effort by NOAA Fisheries social scientists to develop a set of indicators of social vulnerability and resilience for the U.S. Southeast and Northeast coastal communities. A goal of the NOAA Fisheries social vulnerability and resilience indicator program is to support time and cost effective use of readily available data in furtherance of both social impact assessments of proposed changes to fishery management regulations and climate change adaptation planning. The use of the indicators to predict the response to change in coastalmore » communities would be enhanced if community level analyses could be grouped effectively. This study examines the usefulness of combining 1130 communities into 35 relevant subgroups by comparing results of a numerical taxonomy with data collected by interview methods, a process herein referred to as “ground-truthing.” The validation of the taxonomic method by the method of ground-truthing indicates that the clusters are adequate to be used to select communities for in-depth research. - Highlights: • We develop a taxonomy of fishing communities based on vulnerability indicators. • We validate the community clusters through the use of surveys (“ground-truthing”). • Clusters differ along important aspects of fishing community vulnerability. • Clustering communities allows for accurate and timely social impact assessments.« less

Integration and Typologies of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australian Wheat Sheep Zones.

PubMed

Huai, Jianjun

2016-09-27

Although the integrated indicator methods have become popular for assessing vulnerability to climate change, their proliferation has introduced a confusing array of scales and indicators that cause a science-policy gap. I argue for a clear adaptation pathway in an "integrative typology" of regional vulnerability that matches appropriate scales, optimal measurements and adaptive strategies in a six-dimensional and multi-level analysis framework of integration and typology inspired by the "5W1H" questions: "Who is concerned about how to adapt to the vulnerability of what to what in some place (where) at some time (when)?" Using the case of the vulnerability of wheat, barley and oats to drought in Australian wheat sheep zones during 1978-1999, I answer the "5W1H" questions through establishing the "six typologies" framework. I then optimize the measurement of vulnerability through contrasting twelve kinds of vulnerability scores with the divergence of crops yields from their regional mean. Through identifying the socioeconomic constraints, I propose seven generic types of crop-drought vulnerability and local adaptive strategy. Our results illustrate that the process of assessing vulnerability and selecting adaptations can be enhanced using a combination of integration, optimization and typology, which emphasize dynamic transitions and transformations between integration and typology.

Developing Vulnerability Analysis Method for Climate Change Adaptation on Agropolitan Region in Malang District

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiarto, Y.; Perdinan; Atmaja, T.; Wibowo, A.

2017-03-01

Agriculture plays a strategic role in strengthening sustainable development. Based on agropolitan concept, the village becomes the center of economic activities by combining agriculture, agro-industry, agribusiness and tourism that able to create high value-added economy. The impact of climate change on agriculture and water resources may increase the pressure on agropolitan development. The assessment method is required to measure the vulnerability of area-based communities in the agropolitan to climate change impact. An analysis of agropolitan vulnerability was conducted in Malang district based on four aspects and considering the availability and distribution of water as the problem. The indicators used to measure was vulnerability component which consisted of sensitivity and adaptive capacity and exposure component. The studies earned 21 indicators derived from the 115 village-based data. The results of vulnerability assessments showed that most of the villages were categorised at a moderate level. Around 20% of 388 villages were categorized at high to very high level of vulnerability due to low level of agricultural economic. In agropolitan region within the sub-district of Poncokusumo, the vulnerability of the villages varies between very low to very high. The most villages were vulnerable due to lower adaptive capacity, eventhough the level of sensitivity and exposure of all villages were relatively similar. The existence of water resources was the biggest contributor to the high exposure of the villages in Malang district, while the reception of credit facilities and source of family income were among the indicators that lead to high sensitivity component.

Consideration of vertical uncertainty in elevation-based sea-level rise assessments: Mobile Bay, Alabama case study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gesch, Dean B.

2013-01-01

The accuracy with which coastal topography has been mapped directly affects the reliability and usefulness of elevationbased sea-level rise vulnerability assessments. Recent research has shown that the qualities of the elevation data must be well understood to properly model potential impacts. The cumulative vertical uncertainty has contributions from elevation data error, water level data uncertainties, and vertical datum and transformation uncertainties. The concepts of minimum sealevel rise increment and minimum planning timeline, important parameters for an elevation-based sea-level rise assessment, are used in recognition of the inherent vertical uncertainty of the underlying data. These concepts were applied to conduct a sea-level rise vulnerability assessment of the Mobile Bay, Alabama, region based on high-quality lidar-derived elevation data. The results that detail the area and associated resources (land cover, population, and infrastructure) vulnerable to a 1.18-m sea-level rise by the year 2100 are reported as a range of values (at the 95% confidence level) to account for the vertical uncertainty in the base data. Examination of the tabulated statistics about land cover, population, and infrastructure in the minimum and maximum vulnerable areas shows that these resources are not uniformly distributed throughout the overall vulnerable zone. The methods demonstrated in the Mobile Bay analysis provide an example of how to consider and properly account for vertical uncertainty in elevation-based sea-level rise vulnerability assessments, and the advantages of doing so.

Decision Tree based Prediction and Rule Induction for Groundwater Trichloroethene (TCE) Pollution Vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J.; Yoo, K.

2013-12-01

For groundwater resource conservation, it is important to accurately assess groundwater pollution sensitivity or vulnerability. In this work, we attempted to use data mining approach to assess groundwater pollution vulnerability in a TCE (trichloroethylene) contaminated Korean industrial site. The conventional DRASTIC method failed to describe TCE sensitivity data with a poor correlation with hydrogeological properties. Among the different data mining methods such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Multiple Logistic Regression (MLR), Case Base Reasoning (CBR), and Decision Tree (DT), the accuracy and consistency of Decision Tree (DT) was the best. According to the following tree analyses with the optimal DT model, the failure of the conventional DRASTIC method in fitting with TCE sensitivity data may be due to the use of inaccurate weight values of hydrogeological parameters for the study site. These findings provide a proof of concept that DT based data mining approach can be used in predicting and rule induction of groundwater TCE sensitivity without pre-existing information on weights of hydrogeological properties.

Quantifying human vulnerability in rural areas: case study of Tutova Hills (Eastern Romania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stângă, I. C.; Grozavu, A.

2012-06-01

This paper aims to assess the vulnerability at regional level, the model and the proposed indicators being explicitly intended for an essentially rural region, in this case-Tutova Hills (Eastern Romania). Five categories of variables were taken into account to define the vulnerability components: rural habitat, demographic features, agriculture, environmental quality and emergency situations. For each one, five variables were analyzed and ranked based on the level of determination or subordination. In order to ensure the flexibility of the model and to avoid the criteria duplication in assessing vulnerability, only a single indicator of each category was retained and included in analysis: total number of inhabitants, dependency ratio, weight of arable land on slope categories, weight of land under forestry and road accessibility of villages. The selected indicators were mathematically processed in order to maximize their relevance and to unitary express the results in the spread 0-1. Also, values of each indicator were grouped into four classes, corresponding to the level of vulnerability: low, medium, high and very high. A general index was obtained through the integration of vulnerability factors in an equation based on the geometric mean. Spatial analysis was based on features of the MicroImages TNTmips 7.3. software, which allow the vulnerability mapping. This approach argues and states that vulnerability assessment through indicator-based methods can be made only according to the level and scale of analysis and related to natural or human conditions of a region.

A Topical Overview of Cumulative Risk Assessment Concepts, Methods, and Applications (2007–2016)

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) address combined risks from exposures to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors and may focus on vulnerable communities or populations. Significant contributions have been made to the development of concepts, methods, and applications for C...

A method for estimating vulnerability of Douglas-fir growth to climate change in the Northwestern U.S.

Treesearch

J.S. Littell; D.L. Peterson

2005-01-01

Borrowing from landscape ecology, atmospheric science, and integrated assessment, we aim to understand the complex interactions that determine productivity in montane forests and utilize such relationships to forecast montane forest vulnerability under global climate change. Specifically, we identify relationships for precipitation and temperature that govern the...

Assessing node risk and vulnerability in epidemics on networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, T.

2015-01-01

Which nodes are most vulnerable to an epidemic spreading through a network, and which carry the highest risk of causing a major outbreak if they are the source of the infection? Here we show how these questions can be answered to good approximation using the cavity method. Several curious properties of node vulnerability and risk are explored: some nodes are more vulnerable than others to weaker infections, yet less vulnerable to stronger ones; a node is always more likely to be caught in an outbreak than it is to start one, except when the disease has a deterministic lifetime; the rank order of node risk depends on the details of the distribution of infectious periods.

Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment of the Pingtung Plain in Southern Taiwan.

PubMed

Liang, Ching-Ping; Jang, Cheng-Shin; Liang, Cheng-Wei; Chen, Jui-Sheng

2016-11-23

In the Pingtung Plain of southern Taiwan, elevated levels of NO₃ - -N in groundwater have been reported. Therefore, efforts for assessing groundwater vulnerability are required as part of the critical steps to prevent and control groundwater pollution. This study makes a groundwater vulnerability assessment for the Pingtung Plain using an improved overlay and index-based DRASTIC model. The improvement of the DRASTIC model is achieved by reassigning the weighting coefficients of the factors in this model with the help of a discriminant analysis statistical method. The analytical results obtained from the improved DRASTIC model provide a reliable prediction for use in groundwater vulnerability assessment to nitrate pollution and can correctly identify the groundwater protection zones in the Pingtung Plain. Moreover, the results of the sensitivity analysis conducted for the seven parameters in the improved DRASTIC model demonstrate that the aquifer media (A) is the most sensitive factor when the nitrate-N concentration is below 2.5 mg/L. For the cases where the nitrate-N concentration is above 2.5 mg/L, the aquifer media (A) and net recharge (R) are the two most important factors.

Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options.

PubMed

Reed, M S; Podesta, G; Fazey, I; Geeson, N; Hessel, R; Hubacek, K; Letson, D; Nainggolan, D; Prell, C; Rickenbach, M G; Ritsema, C; Schwilch, G; Stringer, L C; Thomas, A D

2013-10-01

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.

Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options☆

PubMed Central

Reed, M.S.; Podesta, G.; Fazey, I.; Geeson, N.; Hessel, R.; Hubacek, K.; Letson, D.; Nainggolan, D.; Prell, C.; Rickenbach, M.G.; Ritsema, C.; Schwilch, G.; Stringer, L.C.; Thomas, A.D.

2013-01-01

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change. PMID:25844020

Using standard clinical assessments for home care to identify vulnerable populations before, during, and after disasters.

PubMed

van Solm, Alexandra I T; Hirdes, John P; Eckel, Leslie A; Heckman, George A; Bigelow, Philip L

Several studies have shown the increased vulnerability of and disproportionate mortality rate among frail community-dwelling older adults as a result of emergencies and disasters. This article will discuss the applicability of the Vulnerable Persons at Risk (VPR) and VPR Plus decision support algorithms designed based on the Resident Assessment Instrument-Home Care (RAI-HC) to identify the most vulnerable community-dwelling (older) adults. A sample was taken from the Ontario RAI-HC database by selecting unique home care clients with assessments closest to December 31, 2014 (N = 275,797). Statistical methods used include cross tabulation, bivariate logistic regression as well as Kaplan-Meier survival plotting and Cox proportional hazards ratios calculations. The VPR and VPR Plus algorithms, were highly predictive of mortality, long-term care admission and hospitalization in ordinary circumstances. This provides a good indication of the strength of the algorithms in identifying vulnerable persons at times of emergencies. Access to real-time person-level information of persons with functional care needs is a vital enabler for emergency responders in prioritizing and allocating resources during a disaster, and has great utility for emergency planning and recovery efforts. The development of valid and reliable algorithms supports the rapid identification and response to vulnerable community-dwelling persons for all phases of emergency management.

Automating Flood Hazard Mapping Methods for Near Real-time Storm Surge Inundation and Vulnerability Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Gallagher, D.

2015-12-01

Storm surge has enough destructive power to damage buildings and infrastructure, erode beaches, and threaten human life across large geographic areas, hence posing the greatest threat of all the hurricane hazards. The United States Gulf of Mexico has proven vulnerable to hurricanes as it has been hit by some of the most destructive hurricanes on record. With projected rises in sea level and increases in hurricane activity, there is a need to better understand the associated risks for disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response. GIS has become a critical tool in enhancing disaster planning, risk assessment, and emergency response by communicating spatial information through a multi-layer approach. However, there is a need for a near real-time method of identifying areas with a high risk of being impacted by storm surge. Research was conducted alongside Baron, a private industry weather enterprise, to facilitate automated modeling and visualization of storm surge inundation and vulnerability on a near real-time basis. This research successfully automated current flood hazard mapping techniques using a GIS framework written in a Python programming environment, and displayed resulting data through an Application Program Interface (API). Data used for this methodology included high resolution topography, NOAA Probabilistic Surge model outputs parsed from Rich Site Summary (RSS) feeds, and the NOAA Census tract level Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The development process required extensive data processing and management to provide high resolution visualizations of potential flooding and population vulnerability in a timely manner. The accuracy of the developed methodology was assessed using Hurricane Isaac as a case study, which through a USGS and NOAA partnership, contained ample data for statistical analysis. This research successfully created a fully automated, near real-time method for mapping high resolution storm surge inundation and vulnerability for the Gulf of Mexico, and improved the accuracy and resolution of the Probabilistic Storm Surge model.

VuWiki: An Ontology-Based Semantic Wiki for Vulnerability Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khazai, Bijan; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Büscher, Christian; Wegner, Antje

2014-05-01

The concept of vulnerability, as well as its implementation in vulnerability assessments, is used in various disciplines and contexts ranging from disaster management and reduction to ecology, public health or climate change and adaptation, and a corresponding multitude of ideas about how to conceptualize and measure vulnerability exists. Three decades of research in vulnerability have generated a complex and growing body of knowledge that challenges newcomers, practitioners and even experienced researchers. To provide a structured representation of the knowledge field "vulnerability assessment", we have set up an ontology-based semantic wiki for reviewing and representing vulnerability assessments: VuWiki, www.vuwiki.org. Based on a survey of 55 vulnerability assessment studies, we first developed an ontology as an explicit reference system for describing vulnerability assessments. We developed the ontology in a theoretically controlled manner based on general systems theory and guided by principles for ontology development in the field of earth and environment (Raskin and Pan 2005). Four key questions form the first level "branches" or categories of the developed ontology: (1) Vulnerability of what? (2) Vulnerability to what? (3) What reference framework was used in the vulnerability assessment?, and (4) What methodological approach was used in the vulnerability assessment? These questions correspond to the basic, abstract structure of the knowledge domain of vulnerability assessments and have been deduced from theories and concepts of various disciplines. The ontology was then implemented in a semantic wiki which allows for the classification and annotation of vulnerability assessments. As a semantic wiki, VuWiki does not aim at "synthesizing" a holistic and overarching model of vulnerability. Instead, it provides both scientists and practitioners with a uniform ontology as a reference system and offers easy and structured access to the knowledge field of vulnerability assessments with the possibility for any user to retrieve assessments using specific research criteria. Furthermore, Vuwiki can serve as a collaborative knowledge platform that allows for the active participation of those generating and using the knowledge represented in the wiki.

An Integrated Method to Analyze Farm Vulnerability to Climatic and Economic Variability According to Farm Configurations and Farmers' Adaptations.

PubMed

Martin, Guillaume; Magne, Marie-Angélina; Cristobal, Magali San

2017-01-01

The need to adapt to decrease farm vulnerability to adverse contextual events has been extensively discussed on a theoretical basis. We developed an integrated and operational method to assess farm vulnerability to multiple and interacting contextual changes and explain how this vulnerability can best be reduced according to farm configurations and farmers' technical adaptations over time. Our method considers farm vulnerability as a function of the raw measurements of vulnerability variables (e.g., economic efficiency of production), the slope of the linear regression of these measurements over time, and the residuals of this linear regression. The last two are extracted from linear mixed models considering a random regression coefficient (an intercept common to all farms), a global trend (a slope common to all farms), a random deviation from the general mean for each farm, and a random deviation from the general trend for each farm. Among all possible combinations, the lowest farm vulnerability is obtained through a combination of high values of measurements, a stable or increasing trend and low variability for all vulnerability variables considered. Our method enables relating the measurements, trends and residuals of vulnerability variables to explanatory variables that illustrate farm exposure to climatic and economic variability, initial farm configurations and farmers' technical adaptations over time. We applied our method to 19 cattle (beef, dairy, and mixed) farms over the period 2008-2013. Selected vulnerability variables, i.e., farm productivity and economic efficiency, varied greatly among cattle farms and across years, with means ranging from 43.0 to 270.0 kg protein/ha and 29.4-66.0% efficiency, respectively. No farm had a high level, stable or increasing trend and low residuals for both farm productivity and economic efficiency of production. Thus, the least vulnerable farms represented a compromise among measurement value, trend, and variability of both performances. No specific combination of farmers' practices emerged for reducing cattle farm vulnerability to climatic and economic variability. In the least vulnerable farms, the practices implemented (stocking rate, input use…) were more consistent with the objective of developing the properties targeted (efficiency, robustness…). Our method can be used to support farmers with sector-specific and local insights about most promising farm adaptations.

An Integrated Method to Analyze Farm Vulnerability to Climatic and Economic Variability According to Farm Configurations and Farmers’ Adaptations

PubMed Central

Martin, Guillaume; Magne, Marie-Angélina; Cristobal, Magali San

2017-01-01

The need to adapt to decrease farm vulnerability to adverse contextual events has been extensively discussed on a theoretical basis. We developed an integrated and operational method to assess farm vulnerability to multiple and interacting contextual changes and explain how this vulnerability can best be reduced according to farm configurations and farmers’ technical adaptations over time. Our method considers farm vulnerability as a function of the raw measurements of vulnerability variables (e.g., economic efficiency of production), the slope of the linear regression of these measurements over time, and the residuals of this linear regression. The last two are extracted from linear mixed models considering a random regression coefficient (an intercept common to all farms), a global trend (a slope common to all farms), a random deviation from the general mean for each farm, and a random deviation from the general trend for each farm. Among all possible combinations, the lowest farm vulnerability is obtained through a combination of high values of measurements, a stable or increasing trend and low variability for all vulnerability variables considered. Our method enables relating the measurements, trends and residuals of vulnerability variables to explanatory variables that illustrate farm exposure to climatic and economic variability, initial farm configurations and farmers’ technical adaptations over time. We applied our method to 19 cattle (beef, dairy, and mixed) farms over the period 2008–2013. Selected vulnerability variables, i.e., farm productivity and economic efficiency, varied greatly among cattle farms and across years, with means ranging from 43.0 to 270.0 kg protein/ha and 29.4–66.0% efficiency, respectively. No farm had a high level, stable or increasing trend and low residuals for both farm productivity and economic efficiency of production. Thus, the least vulnerable farms represented a compromise among measurement value, trend, and variability of both performances. No specific combination of farmers’ practices emerged for reducing cattle farm vulnerability to climatic and economic variability. In the least vulnerable farms, the practices implemented (stocking rate, input use…) were more consistent with the objective of developing the properties targeted (efficiency, robustness…). Our method can be used to support farmers with sector-specific and local insights about most promising farm adaptations. PMID:28900435

Uncertainty analysis in vulnerability estimations for elements at risk- a review of concepts and some examples on landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciurean, R. L.; Glade, T.

2012-04-01

Decision under uncertainty is a constant of everyday life and an important component of risk management and governance. Recently, experts have emphasized the importance of quantifying uncertainty in all phases of landslide risk analysis. Due to its multi-dimensional and dynamic nature, (physical) vulnerability is inherently complex and the "degree of loss" estimates imprecise and to some extent even subjective. Uncertainty analysis introduces quantitative modeling approaches that allow for a more explicitly objective output, improving the risk management process as well as enhancing communication between various stakeholders for better risk governance. This study presents a review of concepts for uncertainty analysis in vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides. Different semi-quantitative and quantitative methods are compared based on their feasibility in real-world situations, hazard dependency, process stage in vulnerability assessment (i.e. input data, model, output), and applicability within an integrated landslide hazard and risk framework. The resulted observations will help to identify current gaps and future needs in vulnerability assessment, including estimation of uncertainty propagation, transferability of the methods, development of visualization tools, but also address basic questions like what is uncertainty and how uncertainty can be quantified or treated in a reliable and reproducible way.

Community-level climate change vulnerability research: trends, progress, and future directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDowell, Graham; Ford, James; Jones, Julie

2016-03-01

This study systematically identifies, characterizes, and critically evaluates community-level climate change vulnerability assessments published over the last 25 years (n = 274). We find that while the field has advanced considerably in terms of conceptual framing and methodological approaches, key shortcomings remain in how vulnerability is being studied at the community-level. We argue that vulnerability research needs to more critically engage with the following: methods for evaluating future vulnerability, the relevance of vulnerability research for decision-making, interdependencies between social and ecological systems, attention to researcher / subject power dynamics, critical interpretation of key terms, and consideration of the potentially positive opportunities presented by a changing climate. Addressing these research needs is necessary for generating knowledge that supports climate-affected communities in navigating the challenges and opportunities ahead.

A synthesized biophysical and social vulnerability assessment for Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Yung-Jaan

2017-11-01

Taiwan, located in the Western Pacific, is a country that is one of the most vulnerable to disasters that are associated with the changing climate; it is located within the Ring of Fire, which is the most geologically active region in the world. The environmental and geological conditions in Taiwan are sensitive and vulnerable to such disasters. Owing to increasing urbanization in Taiwan, floods and climate-related disasters have taken an increasing toll on human lives. As global warming accelerates the rising of sea levels and increasing of the frequency of extreme weather events, disasters will continue to affect socioeconomic development and human conditions. Under such circumstances, researchers and policymakers alike must recognize the importance of providing useful knowledge concerning vulnerability, disaster recovery and resilience. Strategies for reducing vulnerability and climate-related disaster risks and for increasing resilience involve preparedness, mitigation and adaptation. In the last two decades, extreme climate events have caused severe flash floods, debris flows, landslides, and other disasters and have had negative effects of many sectors, including agriculture, infrastructure and health. Since climate change is expected to have a continued impact on socio-economic development, this work develops a vulnerability assessment framework that integrates both biophysical and social vulnerability and supports synthesized vulnerability analyses to identify vulnerable areas in Taiwan. Owing to its geographical, geological and climatic features, Taiwan is susceptible to earthquakes, typhoons, droughts and various induced disasters. Therefore, Taiwan has the urgent task of establishing a framework for assessing vulnerability as a planning and policy tool that can be used to identify not only the regions that require special attention but also hotspots in which efforts should be made to reduce vulnerability and the risk of climate-related disaster. To analyze the biophysical vulnerability of Taiwan, hazards on eight maps from Taiwan’s National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR) are analyzed. Statistical data from the NCDR on social vulnerability are also adopted. Finally, a GIS overlaying method was used to perform the synthesized vulnerability analysis of biophysical and social vulnerability for municipalities and counties in Taiwan.

Are We Telling Decision-makers the Wrong Things - and with Too Much Confidence?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, J.; Nowak, K. C.; Vano, J. A.; Newman, A. J.; Mizukami, N.; Mendoza, P. A.; Nijssen, B.; Wood, A.; Gutmann, E. D.; Clark, M. P.; Rasmussen, R.

2016-12-01

Water-resource management relies on decision-making over a wide range of space-time scales, nearly none of which maps cleanly onto the scales of current hydroclimatic scenarios of anthropogenic change. Myriad choices are made during vulnerability and impact assessments to quantify the changed-climate sensitivities of models used in that decision-making, including choices of hydrologic models, parameters, and parameterizations; their input forcings determined with various climate downscaling approaches; selected GCMs and output variables to be downscaled; and the forcing emissions scenarios, to name a few. Choosing alternative methods for producing gridded meteorological fields, for examples, can produce very different effects on the projected hydrologic outcomes they drive, with uncertainties across those methods revealed to be as large or larger than the climate change signal itself in some cases. Additionally, many popular climate downscaling methods simply rescale GCM precipitation, producing hydroclimatic projections with too much drizzle, incorrect representations of extreme events, and improper spatial scaling of variables crucial to water-resource vulnerability assessments and, importantly, the decisions they seek to inform. Real-world water-resource vulnerability and impacts assessments can be highly time-sensitive and resource limited, though, so they typically do not confront or even fully represent uncertainties associated with all choices. That deficiency results in assessments built on only partially revealed uncertainties which can misrepresent significant sensitivities and impacts in the final assessments of climate threats and hydrologic vulnerabilities. This talk will describe recent work by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Bureau of Reclamation, University of Washington, and National Center for Atmospheric Research to develop and test methods to characterize more fully the uncertainties in the modeling chain for real-world uses. Examples will illustrate new implementations for communicating that fuller characterization in the ways most useful to inform water-resource management across multiple space-time scales under climate-changed futures.

Integration and Typologies of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australian Wheat Sheep Zones

PubMed Central

Huai, Jianjun

2016-01-01

Although the integrated indicator methods have become popular for assessing vulnerability to climate change, their proliferation has introduced a confusing array of scales and indicators that cause a science-policy gap. I argue for a clear adaptation pathway in an “integrative typology” of regional vulnerability that matches appropriate scales, optimal measurements and adaptive strategies in a six-dimensional and multi-level analysis framework of integration and typology inspired by the “5W1H” questions: “Who is concerned about how to adapt to the vulnerability of what to what in some place (where) at some time (when)?” Using the case of the vulnerability of wheat, barley and oats to drought in Australian wheat sheep zones during 1978–1999, I answer the “5W1H” questions through establishing the “six typologies” framework. I then optimize the measurement of vulnerability through contrasting twelve kinds of vulnerability scores with the divergence of crops yields from their regional mean. Through identifying the socioeconomic constraints, I propose seven generic types of crop-drought vulnerability and local adaptive strategy. Our results illustrate that the process of assessing vulnerability and selecting adaptations can be enhanced using a combination of integration, optimization and typology, which emphasize dynamic transitions and transformations between integration and typology. PMID:27670975

The spatial distribution of vulnerability to the health impacts of flooding in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

PubMed

Phung, Dung; Rutherford, Shannon; Dwirahmadi, Febi; Chu, Cordia; Do, Cuong Manh; Nguyen, Thuy; Duong, Nam Chi

2016-06-01

Flooding causes significant public health issues. The Mekong Delta has been considered the region to be the most vulnerable to flooding in Vietnam. This study assessed the spatial vulnerability of the health impacts of flooding in the Mekong Delta region, Vietnam. This study applied a vulnerability assessment framework which was computed as the function of three dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The indicators for each dimension were derived from the relevant literature, consultations with experts, and data availability. An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and a principal component analysis (PCA) were used to determine the weight of indicators. Vulnerability indexes (VIs) were then computed for each province. A total of 29 indicators (sensitivity index, 14; adaptive capacity index, 13; and exposure index, 2) were employed to evaluate the vulnerability to the health impacts of flooding at a provincial level. The results of AHP revealed that the highest VIs were found in the Dong Thap and An Giang provinces (VI, 1.948 and 1.574, respectively). VIs were distributed with higher indexes in upstream provinces close to a river than in coastal provinces. PCA generated three components from the 29 indicators, and the VIs computed from the PCA method are in substantial agreement with the AHP method (ICC = 0.71, p < 0.05). The vulnerability to the health impacts of flooding varies from province to province in the Mekong Delta region in Vietnam. Individual plans for health preparedness and adaption to flooding should be developed for each province in the Mekong Delta region.

Challenges and Opportunities for Integrating Social Science Perspectives into Climate and Global Change Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, E. K.; Li, J.; Zycherman, A.

2017-12-01

Integration of social science into climate and global change assessments is fundamental for improving understanding of the drivers, impacts and vulnerability of climate change, and the social, cultural and behavioral challenges related to climate change responses. This requires disciplinary and interdisciplinary knowledge as well as integrational and translational tools for linking this knowledge with the natural and physical sciences. The USGCRP's Social Science Coordinating Committee (SSCC) is tasked with this challenge and is working to integrate relevant social, economic and behavioral knowledge into processes like sustained assessments. This presentation will discuss outcomes from a recent SSCC workshop, "Social Science Perspectives on Climate Change" and their applications to sustained assessments. The workshop brought academic social scientists from four disciplines - anthropology, sociology, geography and archaeology - together with federal scientists and program managers to discuss three major research areas relevant to the USGCRP and climate assessments: (1) innovative tools, methods, and analyses to clarify the interactions of human and natural systems under climate change, (2) understanding of factors contributing to differences in social vulnerability between and within communities under climate change, and (3) social science perspectives on drivers of global climate change. These disciplines, collectively, emphasize the need to consider socio-cultural, political, economic, geographic, and historic factors, and their dynamic interactions, to understand climate change drivers, social vulnerability, and mitigation and adaptation responses. They also highlight the importance of mixed quantitative and qualitative methods to explain impacts, vulnerability, and responses at different time and spatial scales. This presentation will focus on major contributions of the social sciences to climate and global change research. We will discuss future directions for sustained assessments that integrate and reflect the social science understanding of the complex relationships between social and natural worlds in a changing climate, and factors that impact effective mitigation and adaptation strategies that address risks and vulnerabilities of climate change.

The Varying Vulnerability of African Orphans: The Case of the Langi, Northern Uganda

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oleke, Christopher; Blystad, Astrid; Moland, Karen Marie; Rekdal, Ole Bjorn; Heggenhougen, Kristian

2006-01-01

This article is based on a qualitative study carried out in Lira District, northern Uganda, to assess the situation of orphans cared for in extended families. The objective of the article is to bring attention to the varying vulnerability of different categories of orphans. The methods employed in data collection included ethnographic fieldwork,…

Key concepts and methods in social vulnerability and adaptive capacity

Treesearch

Daniel J. Murphy; Carina Wyborn; Laurie Yung; Daniel R. Williams

2015-01-01

National forests have been asked to assess how climate change will impact nearby human communities. To assist their thinking on this topic, we examine the concepts of social vulnerability and adaptive capacity with an emphasis on a range of theoretical and methodological approaches. This analysis is designed to help researchers and decision-makers select appropriate...

Optimization of DRASTIC method by supervised committee machine artificial intelligence to assess groundwater vulnerability for Maragheh-Bonab plain aquifer, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fijani, Elham; Nadiri, Ata Allah; Asghari Moghaddam, Asghar; Tsai, Frank T.-C.; Dixon, Barnali

2013-10-01

Contamination of wells with nitrate-N (NO3-N) poses various threats to human health. Contamination of groundwater is a complex process and full of uncertainty in regional scale. Development of an integrative vulnerability assessment methodology can be useful to effectively manage (including prioritization of limited resource allocation to monitor high risk areas) and protect this valuable freshwater source. This study introduces a supervised committee machine with artificial intelligence (SCMAI) model to improve the DRASTIC method for groundwater vulnerability assessment for the Maragheh-Bonab plain aquifer in Iran. Four different AI models are considered in the SCMAI model, whose input is the DRASTIC parameters. The SCMAI model improves the committee machine artificial intelligence (CMAI) model by replacing the linear combination in the CMAI with a nonlinear supervised ANN framework. To calibrate the AI models, NO3-N concentration data are divided in two datasets for the training and validation purposes. The target value of the AI models in the training step is the corrected vulnerability indices that relate to the first NO3-N concentration dataset. After model training, the AI models are verified by the second NO3-N concentration dataset. The results show that the four AI models are able to improve the DRASTIC method. Since the best AI model performance is not dominant, the SCMAI model is considered to combine the advantages of individual AI models to achieve the optimal performance. The SCMAI method re-predicts the groundwater vulnerability based on the different AI model prediction values. The results show that the SCMAI outperforms individual AI models and committee machine with artificial intelligence (CMAI) model. The SCMAI model ensures that no water well with high NO3-N levels would be classified as low risk and vice versa. The study concludes that the SCMAI model is an effective model to improve the DRASTIC model and provides a confident estimate of the pollution risk.

Vulnerability of groundwater resources to nitrate pollution: A simple and effective procedure for delimiting Nitrate Vulnerable Zones.

PubMed

Arauzo, Mercedes

2017-01-01

This research was undertaken to further our understanding of the factors involved in nonpoint-source nitrate pollution of groundwater. The shortcomings of some of the most commonly used methods for assessing groundwater vulnerability have been analysed and a new procedure that incorporates key improvements has been proposed. The new approach (LU-IV procedure) allows us to assess and map groundwater vulnerability to nitrate pollution and to accurately delimit the Nitrate Vulnerable Zones. The LU-IV procedure proved more accurate than the most widely used methods to assess groundwater vulnerability (DRASTIC, GOD), when compared with nitrate distribution in the groundwater of 46 aquifers included in the study (using the drainage basin as the unit of analysis). The proposed procedure stands out by meeting the following requirements: (1) it uses readily available parameters that provide enough data to feed the model, (2) it excludes redundant parameters, (3) it avoids the need to assign insufficiently contrasted weights to parameters, (4) it assess the whole catchment area that potentially drains N-polluted waters into the receptor aquifer, (5) it can be implemented within a GIS, and (6) it provides a multi-scale representation. As the LU-IV procedure has been demonstrated to be a reliable tool for delimiting NVZ, it could be particularly interesting to use it in countries where certain types of environmental data are either not available or have only limited availability. Based on this study (and according to the LU-IV procedure), it was concluded that an area of at least 1728km 2 should be considered as NVZ. This sharply contrasts with the current 328km 2 officially designated in the study area by the Spain's regional administrations. These results highlight the need to redefine the current NVZ designation, which is essential for an appropriate implementation of action programmes designed to restore water quality in line with Directive 91/676/EEC. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new set of alternative futures of societal development that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure—i.e., mainly future population patterns—, neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps—mainly linked to the paucity of available projections—that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs—namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts’ elicitation and correlation analyses—and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods—such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models—show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely on these methods to account for future human vulnerability—under varying levels of socioeconomic development—and to explore its influence on future health risks under different degrees of climate change. PMID:29562727

Quantitative assessment of key parameters in qualitative vulnerability methods applied in karst systems based on an integrated numerical modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doummar, Joanna; Kassem, Assaad

2017-04-01

In the framework of a three-year PEER (USAID/NSF) funded project, flow in a Karst system in Lebanon (Assal) dominated by snow and semi arid conditions was simulated and successfully calibrated using an integrated numerical model (MIKE-She 2016) based on high resolution input data and detailed catchment characterization. Point source infiltration and fast flow pathways were simulated by a bypass function and a high conductive lens respectively. The approach consisted of identifying all the factors used in qualitative vulnerability methods (COP, EPIK, PI, DRASTIC, GOD) applied in karst systems and to assess their influence on recharge signals in the different hydrological karst compartments (Atmosphere, Unsaturated zone and Saturated zone) based on the integrated numerical model. These parameters are usually attributed different weights according to their estimated impact on Groundwater vulnerability. The aim of this work is to quantify the importance of each of these parameters and outline parameters that are not accounted for in standard methods, but that might play a role in the vulnerability of a system. The spatial distribution of the detailed evapotranspiration, infiltration, and recharge signals from atmosphere to unsaturated zone to saturated zone was compared and contrasted among different surface settings and under varying flow conditions (e.g., in varying slopes, land cover, precipitation intensity, and soil properties as well point source infiltration). Furthermore a sensitivity analysis of individual or coupled major parameters allows quantifying their impact on recharge and indirectly on vulnerability. The preliminary analysis yields a new methodology that accounts for most of the factors influencing vulnerability while refining the weights attributed to each one of them, based on a quantitative approach.

6 CFR 27.215 - Security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Security vulnerability assessments. 27.215... FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.215 Security vulnerability...-risk, the facility must complete a Security Vulnerability Assessment. A Security Vulnerability...

A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf.

PubMed

Hare, Jonathan A; Morrison, Wendy E; Nelson, Mark W; Stachura, Megan M; Teeters, Eric J; Griffis, Roger B; Alexander, Michael A; Scott, James D; Alade, Larry; Bell, Richard J; Chute, Antonie S; Curti, Kiersten L; Curtis, Tobey H; Kircheis, Daniel; Kocik, John F; Lucey, Sean M; McCandless, Camilla T; Milke, Lisa M; Richardson, David E; Robillard, Eric; Walsh, Harvey J; McManus, M Conor; Marancik, Katrin E; Griswold, Carolyn A

2016-01-01

Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and decadal variability.

A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf

PubMed Central

Hare, Jonathan A.; Morrison, Wendy E.; Nelson, Mark W.; Stachura, Megan M.; Teeters, Eric J.; Griffis, Roger B.; Alexander, Michael A.; Scott, James D.; Alade, Larry; Bell, Richard J.; Chute, Antonie S.; Curti, Kiersten L.; Curtis, Tobey H.; Kircheis, Daniel; Kocik, John F.; Lucey, Sean M.; McCandless, Camilla T.; Milke, Lisa M.; Richardson, David E.; Robillard, Eric; Walsh, Harvey J.; McManus, M. Conor; Marancik, Katrin E.; Griswold, Carolyn A.

2016-01-01

Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and decadal variability. PMID:26839967

Vulnerability Assessment of Mangrove Habitat to the Variables of the Oceanography Using CVI Method (Coastal Vulnerability Index) in Trimulyo Mangrove Area, Genuk District, Semarang

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Rifandi Raditya; Fuad, Muhammad

2018-02-01

Some functions of mangrove areas in coastal ecosystems as a green belt, because mangrove serves as a protector of the beach from the sea waves, as a good habitat for coastal biota and for nutrition supply. Decreased condition or degradation of mangrove habitat caused by several oceanographic factors. Mangrove habitats have some specific characteristics such as salinity, tides, and muddy substrates. Considering the role of mangrove area is very important, it is necessary to study about the potential of mangrove habitat so that the habitat level of mangrove habitat in the east coast of Semarang city is known. The purpose of this research is to obtain an index and condition of habitat of mangrove habitat at location of research based on tidal, salinity, substrate type, coastline change. Observation by using purposive method and calculation of habitat index value of mangrove habitat using CVI (Coastal Vulnerability Index) method with scores divided into 3 groups namely low, medium and high. The results showed that there is a zone of research belonging to the medium vulnerability category with the most influential variables is because there is abrasion that sweeps the mangrove substrate. Trimulyo mangrove habitat has high vulnerable variable of tidal frequency, then based on value variable Salinity is categorized as low vulnerability, whereas for mangrove habitat vulnerability based on variable type of substrate belong to low and medium vulnerability category. The CVI values of mangrove habitats divided into zones 1; 2; and 3 were found to varying values of 1.54; 3.79; 1.09, it indicates that there is a zone with the vulnerability of mangrove habitat at the study site belonging to low and medium vulnerability category.

[Study on the risk assessment method of regional groundwater pollution].

PubMed

Yang, Yan; Yu, Yun-Jiang; Wang, Zong-Qing; Li, Ding-Long; Sun, Hong-Wei

2013-02-01

Based on the boundary elements of system risk assessment, the regional groundwater pollution risk assessment index system was preliminarily established, which included: regional groundwater specific vulnerability assessment, the regional pollution sources characteristics assessment and the health risk assessment of regional featured pollutants. The three sub-evaluation systems were coupled with the multi-index comprehensive method, the risk was characterized with the Spatial Analysis of ArcMap, and a new method to evaluate regional groundwater pollution risk that suitable for different parts of natural conditions, different types of pollution was established. Take Changzhou as an example, the risk of shallow groundwater pollution was studied with the new method, and found that the vulnerability index of groundwater in Changzhou is high and distributes unevenly; The distribution of pollution sources is concentrated and has a great impact on groundwater pollution risks; Influenced by the pollutants and pollution sources, the values of health risks are high in the urban area of Changzhou. The pollution risk of shallow groundwater is high and distributes unevenly, and distributes in the north of the line of Anjia-Xuejia-Zhenglu, the center of the city and the southeast, where the human activities are more intense and the pollution sources are intensive.

Evaluation of social vulnerability to floods in Huaihe River basin: a methodology based on catastrophe theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, W. J.; Zhang, Y. L.

2015-08-01

Huaihe River is one of the seven largest rivers in China, in which floods occurred frequently. Disasters cause huge casualties and property losses to the basin, and also make it famous for high social vulnerability to floods. Based on the latest social-economic data, the index system of social vulnerability to floods was constructed, and Catastrophe theory method was used in the assessment process. The conclusion shows that social vulnerability as a basic attribute attached to urban environment, with significant changes from city to city across the Huaihe River basin. Different distribution characteristics are present in population, economy, flood prevention vulnerability. It is important to make further development of social vulnerability, which will play a positive role in disaster prevention, improvement of comprehensive ability to respond to disasters.

Conducting an Efficient Proactive Risk Assessment Prior to CPOE Implementation in an Intensive Care Unit

PubMed Central

Hundt, Ann Schoofs; Adams, Jean A.; Schmid, J. Andrew; Musser, Linda M.; Walker, James M.; Wetterneck, Tosha B; Douglas, Stephen V.; Paris, Bonnie L.; Carayon, Pascale

2012-01-01

Purpose To develop, conduct, and evaluate a proactive risk assessment (PRA) of the design and implementation of CPOE in an ICU. Methods We developed a PRA method based on issues identified from documented experience with conventional PRA methods and the constraints of an organization about to implement CPOE in an intensive care unit. The PRA method consists of three phases: planning (three months), team (one five-hour meeting), and evaluation (short- and long-term). Results Sixteen unique relevant vulnerabilities were identified as a result of the PRA team’s efforts. Negative consequences resulting from the vulnerabilities included potential patient safety and quality of care issues, non-compliance with regulatory requirements, increases in cognitive burden on CPOE users, and/or worker inconvenience or distress. Actions taken to address the vulnerabilities included redesign of the technology, process (workflow) redesign, user training, and/or ongoing monitoring. Verbal and written evaluation by the team members indicated that the PRA method was useful and that participants were willing to participate in future PRAs. Long-term evaluation was accomplished by monitoring an ongoing “issues list” of CPOE problems identified by or reported to IT staff. Vulnerabilities identified by the team were either resolved prior to CPOE implementation (n = 7) or shortly thereafter (n = 9). No other issues were identified beside those identified by the team. Conclusions Generally positive results from the various evaluations including a long-term evaluation demonstrate the value of developing an efficient PRA method that meets organizational and contextual requirements and constraints. PMID:22608242

Cognitive Vulnerabilities and Depression versus Other Psychopathology Symptoms and Diagnoses in Early Adolescence

PubMed Central

Alloy, Lauren B.; Black, Shimrit K.; Young, Mathew E.; Goldstein, Kim E.; Shapero, Benjamin G.; Stange, Jonathan P.; Boccia, Angelo S.; Matt, Lindsey M.; Boland, Elaine M.; Moore, Lauren C.; Abramson, Lyn Y.

2012-01-01

Objective We examined the concurrent associations between multiple cognitive vulnerabilities to depression featured in Hopelessness Theory, Beck’s Theory, and Response Styles Theory and depressive symptoms and diagnoses in a sample of early adolescents. We also examined the specificity of these cognitive vulnerabilities to depression versus anxiety and externalizing psychopathology, controlling for co-occurring symptoms and diagnoses. Method Male and female, Caucasian and African-American, 12–13 year old adolescents were assessed in a cross-sectional design. Cognitive vulnerabilities of hopelessness, inferential style, rumination, and self-referent information processing were assessed with self-reports and behavioral tasks. Symptoms and diagnoses of depressive, anxiety, and externalizing disorders were assessed with self-report questionnaires and diagnostic interviews. Results Hopelessness exhibited the greatest specificity to depressive symptoms and diagnoses, whereas negative inferential styles, rumination, and negative self-referent information processing were associated with both depressive and anxiety symptoms and diagnoses and, in some cases, with externalizing disorders. Conclusions Consistent with cognitive theories of depression, hopelessness, negative inferential styles, rumination, and negative self-referent information processing were associated with depressive symptoms and diagnoses. However, with the exception of hopelessness, most of the remaining cognitive vulnerabilities were not specific to depression. With further maturation of our sample, these cognitive vulnerabilities may become more specific to depression as cognitive styles further develop and consolidate, the rates of depression increase, and individuals’ presentations of psychopathology become more differentiated. PMID:22853629

Groundwater vulnerability assessment for organic compounds: fuzzy multi-criteria approach for Mexico city.

PubMed

Mazari-Hiriart, Marisa; Cruz-Bello, Gustavo; Bojórquez-Tapia, Luis A; Juárez-Marusich, Lourdes; Alcantar-López, Georgina; Marín, Luis E; Soto-Galera, Ernesto

2006-03-01

This study was based on a groundwater vulnerability assessment approach implemented for the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The approach is based on a fuzzy multi-criteria procedure integrated in a geographic information system. The approach combined the potential contaminant sources with the permeability of geological materials. Initially, contaminant sources were ranked by experts through the Analytic Hierarchy Process. An aggregated contaminant sources map layer was obtained through the simple additive weighting method, using a scalar multiplication of criteria weights and binary maps showing the location of each source. A permeability map layer was obtained through the reclassification of a geology map using the respective hydraulic conductivity values, followed by a linear normalization of these values against a compatible scale. A fuzzy logic procedure was then applied to transform and combine the two map layers, resulting in a groundwater vulnerability map layer of five classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Results provided a more coherent assessment of the policy-making priorities considered when discussing the vulnerability of groundwater to organic compounds. The very high and high vulnerability areas covered a relatively small area (71 km(2) or 1.5% of the total study area), allowing the identification of the more critical locations. The advantage of a fuzzy logic procedure is that it enables the best possible use to be made of the information available regarding groundwater vulnerability in the MCMA.

Research on vulnerability assessments of the Huanghe (Yellow River) delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

qiao, shuqing; shi, xuefa

2014-05-01

Coastal zone located at the juncture of the sea, river and land, and under the influence of both land and ocean (including atmosphere), especially the sea-level rise and human activities, are vulnerable to environment and ecology. At highest risk are coastal zone of South, Southeast and East Asia with dense populations, low elevations and inadequate adaptive capacity. In China, more than 40% of the population live on the 15% of the land in coastal area and more than 70% cities located around the coastal area. The Chinese coastal region, especially river delta area has been experienced erosion, seawater intrusion and decrease in biodiversity under the combined influence of sea-level rise, tectonic subsidence and flooding. Furthermore, some kinds of human activity, such as land use, building, dam construction, reclamation from the sea and waste dumping strengthen the vulnerability of environment and ecosystem in coastal region. The coastal hazards (e.g. coastal erosion, seawater intrusion, land subsidence) and vulnerability of the Huanghe (Yelllow River) delta area are studied during the past several years. A systematic coastal assessment index is built and an evaluation model is developed using the development platform of Visual studio.Net 2005. The assessment index system includes two parts, inherent (sea level rise rate, elevation, morphology, water and sediment discharge, mean tidal range, mean wave height etc) and specific vulnerability index (population density, GDP, land utilization, protection structures etc). The assessment index are determined the weight using Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Based on the research results, we better understand the current status and future change of coastal vulnerability and hazards, discuss the impact of the natural possess and human activities. Furthermore, we provide defending strategies for coastal zone vulnerability and typical coastal hazards.

A new approach for computing a flood vulnerability index using cluster analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, Paulo; Mourato, Sandra; Moreira, Madalena; Pereira, Luísa

2016-08-01

A Flood Vulnerability Index (FloodVI) was developed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a new aggregation method based on Cluster Analysis (CA). PCA simplifies a large number of variables into a few uncorrelated factors representing the social, economic, physical and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. CA groups areas that have the same characteristics in terms of vulnerability into vulnerability classes. The grouping of the areas determines their classification contrary to other aggregation methods in which the areas' classification determines their grouping. While other aggregation methods distribute the areas into classes, in an artificial manner, by imposing a certain probability for an area to belong to a certain class, as determined by the assumption that the aggregation measure used is normally distributed, CA does not constrain the distribution of the areas by the classes. FloodVI was designed at the neighbourhood level and was applied to the Portuguese municipality of Vila Nova de Gaia where several flood events have taken place in the recent past. The FloodVI sensitivity was assessed using three different aggregation methods: the sum of component scores, the first component score and the weighted sum of component scores. The results highlight the sensitivity of the FloodVI to different aggregation methods. Both sum of component scores and weighted sum of component scores have shown similar results. The first component score aggregation method classifies almost all areas as having medium vulnerability and finally the results obtained using the CA show a distinct differentiation of the vulnerability where hot spots can be clearly identified. The information provided by records of previous flood events corroborate the results obtained with CA, because the inundated areas with greater damages are those that are identified as high and very high vulnerability areas by CA. This supports the fact that CA provides a reliable FloodVI.

Linking local vulnerability to climatic hazard damage assessment for integrated river basin management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, Hung-Chih; Liu, Yi-Chung; Chien, Sung-Ying

2015-04-01

1. Background Major portions of areas in Asia are expected to increase exposure and vulnerability to climate change and weather extremes due to rapid urbanization and overdevelopment in hazard-prone areas. To prepare and confront the potential impacts of climate change and related hazard risk, many countries have implemented programs of integrated river basin management. This has led to an impending challenge for the police-makers in many developing countries to build effective mechanism to assess how the vulnerability distributes over river basins, and to understand how the local vulnerability links to climatic (climate-related) hazard damages and risks. However, the related studies have received relatively little attention. This study aims to examine whether geographic localities characterized by high vulnerability experience significantly more damages owing to onset weather extreme events at the river basin level, and to explain what vulnerability factors influence these damages or losses. 2. Methods and data An indicator-based assessment framework is constructed with the goal of identifying composite indicators (including exposure, biophysical, socioeconomic, land-use and adaptive capacity factors) that could serve as proxies for attributes of local vulnerability. This framework is applied by combining geographical information system (GIS) techniques with multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to evaluate and map integrated vulnerability to climatic hazards across river basins. Furthermore, to explain the relationship between vulnerability factors and disaster damages, we develop a disaster damage model (DDM) based on existing disaster impact theory. We then synthesize a Zero-Inflated Poisson regression model with a Tobit regression analysis to identify and examine how the disaster impacts and vulnerability factors connect to typhoon disaster damages and losses. To illustrate the proposed methodology, the study collects data on the vulnerability attributes of the Kaoping, Tsengwen, and Taimali River basins in southern Taiwan, and on the disaster impacts and damages in these river basins due to Typhoon Morakot in 2009. The data was offered by the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan, as well as collected from the National Land Use Investigation, official census statistics and questionnaire surveys. 3. Results We use an MCDA to create a composite vulnerability index, and this index is incorporated into a GIS analysis to demonstrate the results of integrated vulnerability assessment throughout the river basins. Results of the vulnerability assessment indicate that the most vulnerable areas are almost all situated in the regions of middle and upper reaches of the river basins. Through the examining of DDM, it shows that the vulnerability factors play a critical role in determining disaster damages. Findings also present that the losses and casualties caused by Typhoon Morakot increase with elevation, urban and agricultural developments, proximity to rivers, and decrease with levels of income and adaptive capacity. Finally, we propose the adaptive options for minimizing vulnerability and risk, as well as for integrated river basin governance.

Assessing water resource system vulnerability to unprecedented hydrological drought using copulas to characterize drought duration and deficit

PubMed Central

Pflug, Georg; Hall, Jim W.; Hochrainer‐Stigler, Stefan

2015-01-01

Abstract Global climate models suggest an increase in evapotranspiration, changing storm tracks, and moisture delivery in many parts of the world, which are likely to cause more prolonged and severe drought, yet the weakness of climate models in modeling persistence of hydroclimatic variables and the uncertainties associated with regional climate projections mean that impact assessments based on climate model output may underestimate the risk of multiyear droughts. In this paper, we propose a vulnerability‐based approach to test water resource system response to drought. We generate a large number of synthetic streamflow series with different drought durations and deficits and use them as input to a water resource system model. Marginal distributions of the streamflow for each month are generated by bootstrapping the historical data, while the joint probability distributions of consecutive months are constructed using a copula‐based method. Droughts with longer durations and larger deficits than the observed record are generated by perturbing the copula parameter and by adopting an importance sampling strategy for low flows. In this way, potential climate‐induced changes in monthly hydrological persistence are factored into the vulnerability analysis. The method is applied to the London water system (England) to investigate under which drought conditions severe water use restrictions would need to be imposed. Results indicate that the water system is vulnerable to drought conditions outside the range of historical events. The vulnerability assessment results were coupled with climate model information to compare alternative water management options with respect to their vulnerability to increasingly long and severe drought. PMID:27609995

Modeling an internal gear pump

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zongbin; Xu, Rongwu; He, Lin; Liao, Jian

2018-05-01

Considering the nature and characteristics of construction waste piles, this paper analyzed the factors affecting the stability of the slope of construction waste piles, and established the system of the assessment indexes for the slope failure risks of construction waste piles. Based on the basic principles and methods of fuzzy mathematics, the factor set and the remark set were established. The membership grade of continuous factor indexes is determined using the "ridge row distribution" function, while that for the discrete factor indexes was determined by the Delphi Method. For the weight of factors, the subjective weight was determined by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and objective weight by the entropy weight method. And the distance function was introduced to determine the combination coefficient. This paper established a fuzzy comprehensive assessment model of slope failure risks of construction waste piles, and assessed pile slopes in the two dimensions of hazard and vulnerability. The root mean square of the hazard assessment result and vulnerability assessment result was the final assessment result. The paper then used a certain construction waste pile slope as the example for analysis, assessed the risks of the four stages of a landfill, verified the assessment model and analyzed the slope's failure risks and preventive measures against a slide.

Assessing the security vulnerabilities of correctional facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spencer, Debra D.; Morrison, G. Steve

1998-12-01

The National Institute of Justice has tasked their satellite facility at Sandia National Laboratories and their Southeast Regional Technology Center in Charleston, South Carolina to devise new procedures and tools for helping correctional facilities to assess their security vulnerabilities. Thus, a team is visiting selected correctional facilities and performing vulnerability assessments. A vulnerability assessment helps identify the easiest paths for inmate escape, for introduction of contraband such as drugs or weapons, for unexpected intrusion from outside of the facility, and for the perpetration of violent acts on other inmates and correctional employees. In addition, the vulnerability assessment helps to quantify the security risks for the facility. From these assessments will come better procedures for performing vulnerability assessments in general at other correctional facilities, as well as the development of tools to assist with the performance of such vulnerability assessments.

AN OVERVIEW OF DATA INTEGRATION METHODS FOR REGIONAL ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

One of the goals of the EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) project is to take diverse environmental data and develop objective criteria to evaluate environmental risk assessments at the regions: scale. The data include (but are not limited to) variables for forests, ...

Losses Assessment of Crops due to Typhoon Disaster in China Coastal Areas —— A Case Study of Zhanjiang City, Guangdong Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, W.; Fang, W.

2015-12-01

Vulnerability which quantifies the loss ratio under different hazard intensity is an important feature of the natural disaster system and has important significance to natural disaster risk assessment. Agriculture is an outdoor industry with high risk of meteorological disasters. The strong winds, heavy rain and storm surge are main typhoon hazard factors to crops. To provide a quantitative research method for the loss evaluation of crops due to typhoon disaster we first revised two vulnerability curves for crops under comprehensive intensity of typhoon based on the simulated hazard data and loss data related to historical typhoon events landing on China from 1949 to 2014；and then established a storm surge vulnerability matrix of crops regarding Zhanjiang City of Guangdong Province as the study area ; finally, we put forward three storm surge fragility curves for crops representing different states of loss. The results can effectively describe the typhoon vulnerability for crops in China coastal areas so as to provide the input to post-disaster loss assessments and catastrophe modeling applications.

77 FR 28894 - Maritime Vulnerability Self-Assessment Tool

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-16

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Transportation Security Administration Maritime Vulnerability Self... maritime vulnerability self- assessment tool. SUMMARY: The Transportation Security Administration (TSA... conducting vulnerability assessments became available and usage of the TMSARM has dropped off considerably...

Improved tsunami impact assessments: validation, comparison and the integration of hydrodynamic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarbotton, C.; Walters, R. A.; Goff, J. R.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Turner, I. L.

2012-12-01

As communities become increasingly aware of the risks posed by tsunamis, it is important to develop methods for predicting the damage they can cause to the built environment. This will provide the information needed to make informed decisions regarding land-use, building codes, and evacuation. At present, a number of tsunami-building vulnerability assessment models are available, however, the relative infrequency and destructive nature of tsunamis has long made it difficult to obtain the data necessary to adequately validate and compare them. Further complicating matters is that the inundation of a tsunami in the built environment is very difficult model, as is the response of a building to the hydraulic forces that a tsunami generates. Variations in building design and condition will significantly affect a building's susceptibility to damage. Likewise, factors affecting the flow conditions at a building (i.e. surrounding structures and topography), will greatly affect its exposure. This presents significant challenges for practitioners, as they are often left in the dark on how to use hazard modeling and vulnerability assessment techniques together to conduct the community-scale impact studies required for tsunami planning. This paper presents the results of an in-depth case study of Yuriage, Miyagi Prefecture - a coastal city in Japan that was badly damaged by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. The aim of the study was twofold: 1) To test and compare existing tsunami vulnerability assessment models and 2) To more effectively utilize hydrodynamic models in the context of tsunami impact studies. Following the 2011 Tohoku event, an unprecedented quantity of field data, imagery and video emerged. Yuriage in particular, features a comprehensive set of street level Google Street View imagery, available both before and after the event. This has enabled the collection of a large dataset describing the characteristics of the buildings existing before the event as well the subsequent damage that they sustained during. These data together with the detailed results from hydrodynamic models have been used to provide the building, damage and hazard data necessary to rigorously test and compare existing vulnerability assessments techniques. The result is a much-improved understanding of the capabilities of existing vulnerability assessment techniques, as well as important improvements to their assessment framework This provides much needed guidance to practitioners on how to conduct tsunami impact assessments in the future. Furthermore, the study introduces some new methods of integrating hydrodynamic models into vulnerability assessment models, offering guidance on how to more effectively model tsunami inundation in the built environment.

The Construction and Validation of the Heat Vulnerability Index, a Review

PubMed Central

Bao, Junzhe; Li, Xudong; Yu, Chuanhua

2015-01-01

The occurrence of extreme heat and its adverse effects will be exacerbated with the trend of global warming. An increasing number of researchers have been working on aggregating multiple heat-related indicators to create composite indices for heat vulnerability assessments and have visualized the vulnerability through geographic information systems to provide references for reducing the adverse effects of extreme heat more effectively. This review includes 15 studies concerning heat vulnerability assessment. We have studied the indicators utilized and the methods adopted in these studies for the construction of the heat vulnerability index (HVI) and then further reviewed some of the studies that validated the HVI. We concluded that the HVI is useful for targeting the intervention of heat risk, and that heat-related health outcomes could be used to validate and optimize the HVI. In the future, more studies should be conducted to provide references for the selection of heat-related indicators and the determination of weight values of these indicators in the development of the HVI. Studies concerning the application of the HVI are also needed. PMID:26132476

Semi-quantitative assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings for the landslide risk analysis. A case study in the Loures municipality, Lisbon district, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillard-Gonçalves, Clémence; Zêzere, José Luis; Pereira, Susana; Garcia, Ricardo

2016-04-01

The physical vulnerability of the buildings of Loures (a Portuguese municipality) to landslides was assessed, and the landslide risk was computed as the product of the landslide hazard by the vulnerability and the market economic value of the buildings. First, the hazard was assessed by combining the spatio-temporal probability and the frequency-magnitude relationship of the landslides, which was established by plotting the probability of a landslide area. The susceptibility of deep-seated and shallow landslides was assessed by a bi-variate statistical method and was mapped. The annual and multiannual spatio-temporal probabilities were estimated, providing a landslide hazard model. Then, an assessment of buildings vulnerability to landslides, based on an inquiry of a pool of landslide European experts, was developed and applied to the study area. The inquiry was based on nine magnitude scenarios and four structural building types. A sub-pool of the landslide experts who know the study area was extracted from the pool, and the variability of the answers coming from the pool and the sub-pool was assessed with standard deviation. Moreover, the average vulnerability of the basic geographic entities was compared by changing the map unit and applying the vulnerability to all the buildings of a test site (included in the study area), the inventory of which was listed on the field. Next, the market economic value of the buildings was calculated using an adaptation of the Portuguese Tax Services approach. Finally, the annual and multiannual landslide risk was computed for the nine landslide magnitude scenarios and different spatio-temporal probabilities by multiplying the potential loss (Vulnerability × Economic Value) by the hazard probability. As a rule, the vulnerability values given by the sub-pool of experts who know the study area are higher than those given by the European experts, namely for the high magnitude landslides. The obtained vulnerabilities vary from 0.2 to 1 as a function of the structural building types and the landslide magnitude, and are maximal for 10 and 20 meters landslide depths. However, the highest annual risk was found for the 3 m deep landslides, with a maximum value of 25.68 € per 5 m pixel, which is explained by the combination of a relatively high frequency in the Loures municipality with a substantial potential damage.

Physical and institutional vulnerability assessment method applied in Alpine communities. Preliminary Results of the SAMCO-ANR Project in the Guil Valley (French Southern Alps)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlier, Benoit; Dujarric, Constance; Puissant, Anne; Lissak, Candide; Viel, Vincent; Bétard, François; Madelin, Malika; Fort, Monique; Arnaud-Fassetta, Gilles

2015-04-01

The Guil catchment is particularly prone to torrential and gravitational hazards such as floods, debris flows, landslides or avalanches due to several predisposing factors (bedrock supplying abundant debris, strong hillslope-channel connectivity) in a context of summer Mediterranean rainstorms as triggers. These hazards severely impact the local population (fatalities, destruction of buildings and infrastructures, loss of agricultural land, road closures). Since the second half of the 20th century, the progressive decline of agro-pastoralism and the development of tourism activities led to a concentration of human stakes on alluvial cones and valley bottom, therefore an increase of vulnerability for mountainous communities. Following the 1957 and 2000 catastrophic floods and the 1948 and 2008 avalanche episodes, some measures were taken to reduce exposure to risks (engineering works, standards of construction, rescue training…). Nevertheless, in front of urban expansion (land pressures and political pressures) and obsolescence of the existing protective measures, it is essential to reassess the vulnerability of the stakes exposed to hazards. Vulnerability analysis is, together with hazard evaluation, one of the major steps of risk assessment. In the frame of the SAMCO project designed for mountain risk assessment, our goal is to estimate specific form of vulnerability for communities living in the Upper Guil catchment in order to provide useful documentation for a better management of the valley bottom and the implementation of adequate mitigation measures. Here we present preliminary results on three municipalities of the upper Guil catchment: Aiguilles, Abriès, and Ristolas. We propose an empirical semi-quantitative indicator of potential hazards consequences on element at risk (based on GIS) with an application to different (local and regional scale) scales. This indicator, called Potential Damage Index, enable us to describe, quantify, and visualize direct (physical injury, structural and functional damage on buildings, lifelines and land cover) and indirect (socio-economic impacts) consequences. The method allows estimating the possible damage caused by torrential and gravitational hazards by combining weighted indicators (age, state, land use, number of occupied floors, etc.) reflecting the exposure of elements at risk (land cover, buildings, and lifelines) to obtain different maps of total consequences. Besides, this method allows introducing temporality by modifying the weight and the combination of variables. For example, we can operate the distinction between day and night or between the off-season and the touristic season. Another benefit of this method is to permit the visualization of the vulnerability evolution producing diachronic maps. All these maps, combined with adequate hazards map, will contribute to a better assessment of vulnerability in the Queyras and must help the development of better land use and evacuation plans, and thus are important tools for local authorities. This study will be completed by an analysis of social and institutional vulnerability realized on the basis of interview with local councillors and risk perception survey led with the local populations and the tourists.

[Local conditions of vulnerability associated with dengue in two communities of Morelos].

PubMed

Chuc, Silvia; Hurtado-Díaz, Magali; Schilmann, Astrid; Riojas-Rodríguez, Horacio; Rangel, Hilda; González-Fernández, Mariana Irina

2013-04-01

To evaluate the vulnerability associated with the occurrence of dengue in two villages of Morelos, Mexico from 2006 to 2009. MATERIALS AND METHODS. A survey on knowledge, risk perception, prevention practices and water use was applied in two villages of Morelos. Using a principal component analysis, an index of local vulnerability to dengue (IVL) was constructed. The association of IVL with the disease at home was assessed using a Chi-square test. The IVL included five components explaining 63% of the variance and was classified in three categories: low, medium and high. There was a significant association between increased vulnerability and prevalence of reported cases of dengue in Temixco and Tlaquiltenango. The study of vulnerability to dengue allows us to identify local needs in the field of health promotion.

Real-time network security situation visualization and threat assessment based on semi-Markov process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Junhua

2013-03-01

To cope with a large amount of data in current sensed environments, decision aid tools should provide their understanding of situations in a time-efficient manner, so there is an increasing need for real-time network security situation awareness and threat assessment. In this study, the state transition model of vulnerability in the network based on semi-Markov process is proposed at first. Once events are triggered by an attacker's action or system response, the current states of the vulnerabilities are known. Then we calculate the transition probabilities of the vulnerability from the current state to security failure state. Furthermore in order to improve accuracy of our algorithms, we adjust the probabilities that they exploit the vulnerability according to the attacker's skill level. In the light of the preconditions and post-conditions of vulnerabilities in the network, attack graph is built to visualize security situation in real time. Subsequently, we predict attack path, recognize attack intention and estimate the impact through analysis of attack graph. These help administrators to insight into intrusion steps, determine security state and assess threat. Finally testing in a network shows that this method is reasonable and feasible, and can undertake tremendous analysis task to facilitate administrators' work.

49 CFR 15.5 - Sensitive security information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... requirements of Federal law. (5) Vulnerability assessments. Any vulnerability assessment directed, created... security requirements of Federal law that could reveal a security vulnerability, including the identity of... Guard responsible for conducting vulnerability assessments, security boardings, or engaged in operations...

Is a clean river fun for all? Recognizing social vulnerability in watershed planning.

PubMed

Cutts, Bethany B; Greenlee, Andrew J; Prochaska, Natalie K; Chantrill, Carolina V; Contractor, Annie B; Wilhoit, Juliana M; Abts, Nancy; Hornik, Kaitlyn

2018-01-01

Watershed planning can lead to policy innovation and action toward environmental protection. However, groups often suffer from low engagement with communities that experience disparate impacts from flooding and water pollution. This can limit the capacity of watershed efforts to dismantle pernicious forms of social inequality. As a result, the benefits of environmental changes often flow to more empowered residents, short-changing the power of watershed-based planning as a tool to transform ecological, economic, and social relationships. The objectives of this paper are to assess whether the worldview of watershed planning actors are sufficiently attuned to local patterns of social vulnerability and whether locally significant patterns of social vulnerability can be adequately differentiated using conventional data sources. Drawing from 35 in-depth interviews with watershed planners and community stakeholders in the Milwaukee River Basin (WI, USA), we identify five unique definitions of social vulnerability. Watershed planners in our sample articulate a narrower range of social vulnerability definitions than other participants. All five definitions emphasize spatial and demographic characteristics consistent with existing ways of measuring social vulnerability. However, existing measures do not adequately differentiate among the spatio-temporal dynamics used to distinguish definitions. In response, we develop two new social vulnerability measures. The combination of interviews and demographic analyses in this study provides an assessment technique that can help watershed planners (a) understand the limits of their own conceptualization of social vulnerability and (b) acknowledge the importance of place-based vulnerabilities that may otherwise be obscured. We conclude by discussing how our methods can be a useful tool for identifying opportunities to disrupt social vulnerability in a watershed by evaluating how issue frames, outreach messages, and engagement tactics. The approach allows watershed planners to shift their own culture in order to consider socially vulnerable populations comprehensively.

Is a clean river fun for all? Recognizing social vulnerability in watershed planning

PubMed Central

Greenlee, Andrew J.; Prochaska, Natalie K.; Chantrill, Carolina V.; Contractor, Annie B.; Wilhoit, Juliana M.; Abts, Nancy; Hornik, Kaitlyn

2018-01-01

Watershed planning can lead to policy innovation and action toward environmental protection. However, groups often suffer from low engagement with communities that experience disparate impacts from flooding and water pollution. This can limit the capacity of watershed efforts to dismantle pernicious forms of social inequality. As a result, the benefits of environmental changes often flow to more empowered residents, short-changing the power of watershed-based planning as a tool to transform ecological, economic, and social relationships. The objectives of this paper are to assess whether the worldview of watershed planning actors are sufficiently attuned to local patterns of social vulnerability and whether locally significant patterns of social vulnerability can be adequately differentiated using conventional data sources. Drawing from 35 in-depth interviews with watershed planners and community stakeholders in the Milwaukee River Basin (WI, USA), we identify five unique definitions of social vulnerability. Watershed planners in our sample articulate a narrower range of social vulnerability definitions than other participants. All five definitions emphasize spatial and demographic characteristics consistent with existing ways of measuring social vulnerability. However, existing measures do not adequately differentiate among the spatio-temporal dynamics used to distinguish definitions. In response, we develop two new social vulnerability measures. The combination of interviews and demographic analyses in this study provides an assessment technique that can help watershed planners (a) understand the limits of their own conceptualization of social vulnerability and (b) acknowledge the importance of place-based vulnerabilities that may otherwise be obscured. We conclude by discussing how our methods can be a useful tool for identifying opportunities to disrupt social vulnerability in a watershed by evaluating how issue frames, outreach messages, and engagement tactics. The approach allows watershed planners to shift their own culture in order to consider socially vulnerable populations comprehensively. PMID:29715285

Predicting the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association claim payout of commercial buildings from Hurricane Ike

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J. M.; Woods, P. K.; Park, Y. J.; Son, K.

2013-08-01

Following growing public awareness of the danger from hurricanes and tremendous demands for analysis of loss, many researchers have conducted studies to develop hurricane damage analysis methods. Although researchers have identified the significant indicators, there currently is no comprehensive research for identifying the relationship among the vulnerabilities, natural disasters, and economic losses associated with individual buildings. To address this lack of research, this study will identify vulnerabilities and hurricane indicators, develop metrics to measure the influence of economic losses from hurricanes, and visualize the spatial distribution of vulnerability to evaluate overall hurricane damage. This paper has utilized the Geographic Information System to facilitate collecting and managing data, and has combined vulnerability factors to assess the financial losses suffered by Texas coastal counties. A multiple linear regression method has been applied to develop hurricane economic damage predicting models. To reflect the pecuniary loss, insured loss payment was used as the dependent variable to predict the actual financial damage. Geographical vulnerability indicators, built environment vulnerability indicators, and hurricane indicators were all used as independent variables. Accordingly, the models and findings may possibly provide vital references for government agencies, emergency planners, and insurance companies hoping to predict hurricane damage.

Carotid artery stenting for vulnerable plaques on MR angiography and ultrasonography: utility of dual protection and blood aspiration method.

PubMed

Sakamoto, Shigeyuki; Kiura, Yoshihiro; Okazaki, Takahito; Shinagawa, Katsuhiro; Ishii, Daizo; Ichinose, Nobuhiko; Kurisu, Kaoru

2016-10-01

Carotid artery stenting (CAS) for internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis with vulnerable plaques is controversial. We analyzed the effect of a dual protection and blood aspiration method during CAS in patients with vulnerable plaques. A total of 111 patients with ICA stenosis underwent CAS using the dual protection (simultaneous flow reversal and distal filter) and blood aspiration method. In 103 of 111 patients, preoperative carotid plaque was estimated by both 3 T MRI and ultrasonography (US). ICA plaques with a high intensity signal on time-of-flight-MR angiography (TOF-MRA) and/or mobile component on US were defined as vulnerable plaques. We assessed major adverse events (MAE) (ie, major stroke, myocardial infarction, and death) and hyperintense spots on diffusion-weighted images (DWI) after CAS. We then evaluated the visible debris captured by dual protection and blood aspiration during CAS. The preoperative ICA plaque on TOF-MRA and US was judged to be vulnerable in 48.5% (50/103 patients). The success rate of the CAS procedure was 100% with no MAE within 30 days. DWI showed small hyperintense spots in 18% (9/50 patients) and 18.9% (10/53 patients) in the vulnerable and non-vulnerable plaque groups, respectively. Visible debris was captured in 68% (34/50 patients) and 45.3% (24/53 patients) in the vulnerable and non-vulnerable plaque groups, respectively (p=0.0286). The combination of dual protection and blood aspiration could provide effective distal embolic protection although vulnerable plaques on TOF-MRA and US had a high incidence of debris during CAS. Thus, CAS using dual protection and blood aspiration is safe in patients with vulnerable plaques. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Assessment of intrinsic vulnerability of an alluvial aquifer under anthropogenic pressure: cross comparison of 4 index-based groundwater vulnerability mapping models within the Biguglia lagoon watershed (Corsica, France).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaunat, Jessy; Huneau, Frédéric; Garel, Emilie; Devos, Alain; Lejeune, Olivier

2016-04-01

KEYWORDS: Alluvial aquifer, Vulnerability mapping, Index-based methods, DRASTIC, SINTACS, SI, GOD The geographical position of the Biguglia lagoon watershed south of the Bastia city (80 000 inhabitants), lead to a highly vulnerable hydrosystem setting. This littoral plain is the unique territory available for the urbanisation and for the agriculture activities (cattle breeding). All the activities developed are likely to have a qualitative impact on water infiltration and therefore on groundwater, which is in hydraulic connection with the lagoon system. Beyond this ecological issue, groundwater of this watershed is intensively used as drinking water supply. It appears essential to control the long-term groundwater quality of the Biguglia plain which is the major economic zone of Corsica. Achievement of this issue requires the identification of the areas where the alluvial aquifer is mostly vulnerable to anthropogenic activities. The results given by 4 of the most popular index-based vulnerability mapping methods (DRASTIC, SI, SINTACS and GOD) are compared. The water table, net recharge, aquifer and soils properties, topography, vadose zone and land uses have been precisely mapped and numerically translated in GIS with a 25m precision. 4 final maps were finally compiled according to the weighting factors of each methods. Hydrochemical investigations were also carried out on 30 sampling points (major ions and anthropogenic tracers) to evaluate the effect of anthropogenic activities on groundwater quality and also to validate the results of the vulnerability mapping. A comparison between the parametric models shows a significant agreement between the DRASTIC, SINTACS and SI results (2% to 5% of the total area in very low vulnerability class, 10% to 13% in low vulnerability, 16% to 23% in medium vulnerability, 31% to 53% in high vulnerability and 14% to 23% in very high vulnerability). The two first methods are quite similar, which explains the proximity of the obtained results. High vulnerability and very high vulnerability classes are noticeably different for the SI results. This can be partly explained by the consideration of the land use and the absence of parameters related to soil media, vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity in this model, which generates a larger surface in highly vulnerable class at the expense of the very highly vulnerable one. Conversely, the GOD method gives very different results especially in the very low and low vulnerability classes with 11% and 17% of the total area respectively. This last method underestimates the vulnerability in the hydrological context of this work. The DRASTIC and SINTACS models are those that best transcribe the field observations. With these models the most vulnerable zones are correlated with the highest concentrations of nitrates measured in groundwater. Thereafter, it will be essential to integrate the temporal variability of the imputed parameters and to link these results with the acquired data on origin and residence time of groundwater in the alluvial aquifer of Biguglia lagoon. This study was supported by CNRS Labex DRIIHM OHM Littoral méditerranéen (HYDROGEO-LAG project).

Global assessment of coastal aquifer state and its vulnerability respect to Sea Water Intrusion. Application to several Mediterranean Coastal Aquifers.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baena, Leticia; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Renau-Pruñonosa, Arianna; Morell, Ignacio

2017-04-01

In this research we propose a method for a global assessment of coastal aquifer state and its vulnerability to Sea Water Intrusion (SWI). It is based on two indices, the MART index, which summarize the global significance of the SWI phenomenon, and the L_GALDIT for a lumped assessment of the vulnerability to SWI. Both of them can be useful as a tool to assess coastal groundwater bodies in risk of not achieving good status in accordance with the Water Framework Directive (WFD, 2000) and to identify possible management alternative to reduce existing impacts. They can be obtained even from a reduced number of data (in the MART case only depend on the geometry and available aquifer state data) with simple calculations, which have been implemented in a general GIS tool that can be easily applied to other case studies. The MART index in an aquifer is related with the total mass of chloride in the aquifer due to sea water intrusion and can be obtained by simple linear operations of volume and concentrations that can be deduced from a schematic conceptual cross-section approach (orthogonal to the shore line) defined to summarize the intrusion volume in the aquifer. At a certain historical time, this representative aquifer cross-section can be defined in a systhematic way from the aquifer geometry, the specific yield, and the hydraulic head and chloride concentration fields that can be deduced from the available information by using appropriate interpolation methods. Following the proposed procedure we will finally obtain a summary of the historical significance of the SWI in an aquifer at different spatial resolution: 3D salinity concentration maps, 2D representative conceptual cross-section of intrusion and the MART lumped significance index. The historical evolution of the MART can be employed to perform a global assessment of the resilience and trends of global significance of the SWI in an aquifer. It can be useful to compare the significance of intrusion problems in different groundwater bodies and temporal periods. Some assumptions and hypothesis assumed in this analysis of the significance of SWI were also applied in a previous research work, the SITE index (Ballesteros et al., 2016). Finally, we have also obtained vulnerability maps to SWI by applying the GALDIT method (Chachadi and Lobo-Ferreria, 2007). As in the analysis of the significance, we propose to apply an analogous procedure to summarize the vulnerability of the aquifer to SWI at different spatial scale: 2D vulnerability maps, 2D representative conceptual cross-section of the vulnerability and a global vulnerability index (L_GALDIT). The historical evolution of the L_GALDIT could be also employed to perform a global assessment of the resilience and trends of the global vulnerability of the SWI in an aquifer. While MART index is calculated using only physical variables, L_GALDIT employs weighted qualitative characteristics based on expert criteria. It can be useful to combine both MART and L_GALDIT indices in order to obtain a general knowledge of SWI in an aquifer. This research has been supported by the CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R (MINECO) project.

Climate change vulnerability to agrarian ecosystem of small Island: evidence from Sagar Island, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, S.; Satpati, L. N.; Choudhury, B. U.; Sadhu, S.

2018-04-01

The present study assessed climate change vulnerability in agricultural sector of low-lying Sagar Island of Bay of Bengal. Vulnerability indices were estimated using spatially aggregated biophysical and socio-economic parameters by applying principal component analysis and equal weight method. The similarities and differences of outputs of these two methods were analysed across the island. From the integration of outputs and based on the severity of vulnerability, explicit vulnerable zones were demarcated spatially. Results revealed that life subsistence agriculture in 11.8% geographical area (2829 ha) of the island along the western coast falls under very high vulnerable zone (VHVZ VI of 84-99%) to climate change. Comparatively higher values of exposure (0.53 ± 0.26) and sensitivity (0.78 ± 0.14) subindices affirmed that the VHV zone is highly exposed to climate stressor with very low adaptive capacity (ADI= 0.24 ± 0.16) to combat vulnerability to climate change. Hence, food security for a population of >22 thousands comprising >3.7 thousand agrarian households are highly exposed to climate change. Another 17% area comprising 17.5% population covering 20% villages in north-western and eastern parts of the island also falls under high vulnerable (VI= 61%-77%) zone. Findings revealed large spatial heterogeneity in the degree of vulnerability across the island and thus, demands devising area specific planning (adaptation and mitigation strategies) to address the climate change impact implications both at macro and micro levels.

Vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change: the views of government stakeholders and other specialists in Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Strand, Linn B; Tong, Shilu; Aird, Rosemary; McRae, David

2010-07-28

There is overwhelming scientific evidence that human activities have changed and will continue to change the climate of the Earth. Eco-environmental health, which refers to the interdependencies between ecological systems and population health and well-being, is likely to be significantly influenced by climate change. The aim of this study was to examine perceptions from government stakeholders and other relevant specialists about the threat of climate change, their capacity to deal with it, and how to develop and implement a framework for assessing vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. Two focus groups were conducted in Brisbane, Australia with representatives from relevant government agencies, non-governmental organisations, and the industry sector (n = 15) involved in the discussions. The participants were specialists on climate change and public health from governmental agencies, industry, and non-governmental organisations in South-East Queensland. The specialists perceived climate change to be a threat to eco-environmental health and had substantial knowledge about possible implications and impacts. A range of different methods for assessing vulnerability were suggested by the participants and the complexity of assessment when dealing with multiple hazards was acknowledged. Identified factors influencing vulnerability were perceived to be of a social, physical and/or economic nature. They included population growth, the ageing population with associated declines in general health and changes in the vulnerability of particular geographical areas due to for example, increased coastal development, and financial stress. Education, inter-sectoral collaboration, emergency management (e.g. development of early warning systems), and social networks were all emphasised as a basis for adapting to climate change. To develop a framework, different approaches were discussed for assessing eco-environmental health vulnerability, including literature reviews to examine the components of vulnerability such as natural hazard risk and exposure and to investigate already existing frameworks for assessing vulnerability. The study has addressed some important questions in regard to government stakeholders and other specialists' views on the threat of climate change and its potential impacts on eco-environmental health. These findings may have implications in climate change and public health decision-making.

Instability risk assessment of construction waste pile slope based on fuzzy entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Yong; Xing, Huige; Yang, Mao; Nie, Tingting

2018-05-01

Considering the nature and characteristics of construction waste piles, this paper analyzed the factors affecting the stability of the slope of construction waste piles, and established the system of the assessment indexes for the slope failure risks of construction waste piles. Based on the basic principles and methods of fuzzy mathematics, the factor set and the remark set were established. The membership grade of continuous factor indexes is determined using the "ridge row distribution" function, while that for the discrete factor indexes was determined by the Delphi Method. For the weight of factors, the subjective weight was determined by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and objective weight by the entropy weight method. And the distance function was introduced to determine the combination coefficient. This paper established a fuzzy comprehensive assessment model of slope failure risks of construction waste piles, and assessed pile slopes in the two dimensions of hazard and vulnerability. The root mean square of the hazard assessment result and vulnerability assessment result was the final assessment result. The paper then used a certain construction waste pile slope as the example for analysis, assessed the risks of the four stages of a landfill, verified the assessment model and analyzed the slope's failure risks and preventive measures against a slide.

Multi-dimensional flood vulnerability assessment using data envelopment analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahid, Zalina; Saharizan, Nurul Syuhada; Hamzah, Paezah; Hussin, Siti Aida Sheikh; Khairi, Siti Shaliza Mohd

2017-11-01

Malaysia has been greatly impacted by flood during monsoon seasons. Even though flood prone areas are well identified, assessment on the vulnerability of the disaster is lacking. Assessment of flood vulnerability, defined as the potential for loss when a disaster occurs, is addressed in this paper. The focus is on the development of flood vulnerability measurement in 11 states in Peninsular Malaysia using a non-parametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis. Scores for three dimensions of flood vulnerability (Population Vulnerability, Social Vulnerability and Biophysical) were calculated using secondary data of selected input and output variables across an 11-year period from 2004 to 2014. The results showed that Johor and Pahang were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Population Vulnerability, followed by Kelantan, the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Social Vulnerability and Kedah, Pahang and Terengganu were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Biophysical Vulnerability among the eleven states. The results also showed that the state of Johor, Pahang and Kelantan to be most vulnerable across the three dimensions. Flood vulnerability assessment is important as it provides invaluable information that will allow the authority to identify and develop plans for flood mitigation and to reduce the vulnerability of flood at the affected regions.

Sabotage at Nuclear Power Plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Purvis, James W.

1999-07-21

Recently there has been a noted worldwide increase in violent actions including attempted sabotage at nuclear power plants. Several organizations, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, have guidelines, recommendations, and formal threat- and risk-assessment processes for the protection of nuclear assets. Other examples are the former Defense Special Weapons Agency, which used a risk-assessment model to evaluate force-protection security requirements for terrorist incidents at DOD military bases. The US DOE uses a graded approach to protect its assets based on risk and vulnerability assessments. The Federal Aviation Administration and Federal Bureau of Investigationmore » conduct joint threat and vulnerability assessments on high-risk US airports. Several private companies under contract to government agencies use formal risk-assessment models and methods to identify security requirements. The purpose of this paper is to survey these methods and present an overview of all potential types of sabotage at nuclear power plants. The paper discusses emerging threats and current methods of choice for sabotage--especially vehicle bombs and chemical attacks. Potential consequences of sabotage acts, including economic and political; not just those that may result in unacceptable radiological exposure to the public, are also discussed. Applicability of risk-assessment methods and mitigation techniques are also presented.« less

Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment.

PubMed

Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N H

2017-09-01

Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N. H.

2017-09-01

Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

A hybrid framework for assessing maize drought vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamali, B.; Abbaspour, K. C.; Wehrli, B.; Yang, H.

2017-12-01

Drought has devastating impacts on crop yields. Quantifying drought vulnerability is the first step to better design of mitigation policies. The vulnerability of crop yield to drought has been assessed with different methods, however they lack a standardized base to measure its components and a procedure that facilitates spatial and temporal comparisons. This study attempts to quantify maize drought vulnerability through linking the Drought Exposure Index (DEI) to the Crop Failure Index (CFI). DEI and CFI were defined by fitting probability distribution functions to precipitation and maize yield respectively. To acquire crop drought vulnerability index (CDVI), DEI and CFI were combined in a hybrid framework which classifies CDVI with the same base as DEI and CFI. The analysis were implemented on Sub-Saharan African countries using maize yield simulated with the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model at 0.5° resolution. The model was coupled with the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm for calibration at country level. Our results show that Central Africa and those Western African countries located below the Sahelian strip receive higher amount of precipitation, but experience high crop failure. Therefore, they are identified as more vulnerable regions compared to countries such as South Africa, Tanzania, and Kenya. We concluded that our hybrid approach complements information on crop drought vulnerability quantification and can be applied to different regions and scales.

MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

ORD's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (REVA) Program is developing and demonstrating approaches to assess current and future environmental vulnerabilities so that risk management activities can be targeted. The sister program to EMA.P (Environmental Monitoring Assessment Progr...

Empirical Estimates of 0Day Vulnerabilities in Control Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miles A. McQueen; Wayne F. Boyer; Sean M. McBride

2009-01-01

We define a 0Day vulnerability to be any vulnerability, in deployed software, which has been discovered by at least one person but has not yet been publicly announced or patched. These 0Day vulnerabilities are of particular interest when assessing the risk to well managed control systems which have already effectively mitigated the publicly known vulnerabilities. In these well managed systems the risk contribution from 0Days will have proportionally increased. To aid understanding of how great a risk 0Days may pose to control systems, an estimate of how many are in existence is needed. Consequently, using the 0Day definition given above,more » we developed and applied a method for estimating how many 0Day vulnerabilities are in existence on any given day. The estimate is made by: empirically characterizing the distribution of the lifespans, measured in days, of 0Day vulnerabilities; determining the number of vulnerabilities publicly announced each day; and applying a novel method for estimating the number of 0Day vulnerabilities in existence on any given day using the number of vulnerabilities publicly announced each day and the previously derived distribution of 0Day lifespans. The method was first applied to a general set of software applications by analyzing the 0Day lifespans of 491 software vulnerabilities and using the daily rate of vulnerability announcements in the National Vulnerability Database. This led to a conservative estimate that in the worst year there were, on average, 2500 0Day software related vulnerabilities in existence on any given day. Using a smaller but intriguing set of 15 0Day software vulnerability lifespans representing the actual time from discovery to public disclosure, we then made a more aggressive estimate. In this case, we estimated that in the worst year there were, on average, 4500 0Day software vulnerabilities in existence on any given day. We then proceeded to identify the subset of software applications likely to be used in some control systems, analyzed the associated subset of vulnerabilities, and characterized their lifespans. Using the previously developed method of analysis, we very conservatively estimated 250 control system related 0Day vulnerabilities in existence on any given day. While reasonable, this first order estimate for control systems is probably far more conservative than those made for general software systems since the estimate did not include vulnerabilities unique to control system specific components. These control system specific vulnerabilities were unable to be included in the estimate for a variety of reasons with the most problematic being that the public announcement of unique control system vulnerabilities is very sparse. Consequently, with the intent to improve the above 0Day estimate for control systems, we first identified the additional, unique to control systems, vulnerability estimation constraints and then investigated new mechanisms which may be useful for estimating the number of unique 0Day software vulnerabilities found in control system components. We proceeded to identify a number of new mechanisms and approaches for estimating and incorporating control system specific vulnerabilities into an improved 0Day estimation method. These new mechanisms and approaches appear promising and will be more rigorously evaluated during the course of the next year.« less

Full annual cycle climate change vulnerability assessment for migratory birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Culp, Leah A.; Cohen, Emily B.; Scarpignato, Amy L.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Marra, Peter P.

2017-01-01

Climate change is a serious challenge faced by all plant and animal species. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are one method to assess risk and are increasingly used as a tool to inform management plans. Migratory animals move across regions and continents during their annual cycles where they are exposed to diverse climatic conditions. Climate change during any period and in any region of the annual cycle could influence survival, reproduction, or the cues used to optimize timing of migration. Therefore, CCVAs for migratory animals best estimate risk when they include climate exposure during the entire annual cycle. We developed a CCVA incorporating the full annual cycle and applied this method to 46 species of migratory birds breeding in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes (UMGL) region of the United States. Our methodology included background risk, climate change exposure × climate sensitivity, adaptive capacity to climate change, and indirect effects of climate change. We compiled information about migratory connectivity between breeding and stationary non-breeding areas using literature searches and U.S. Geological Survey banding and re-encounter data. Climate change exposure (temperature and moisture) was assessed using UMGL breeding season climate and winter climate from non-breeding regions for each species. Where possible, we focused on non-breeding regions known to be linked through migratory connectivity. We ranked 10 species as highly vulnerable to climate change and two as having low vulnerability. The remaining 34 species were ranked as moderately vulnerable. In general, including non-breeding data provided more robust results that were highly individualistic by species. Two species were found to be highly vulnerable throughout their annual cycle. Projected drying will have the greatest effect during the non-breeding season for species overwintering in Mexico and the Caribbean. Projected temperature increases will have the greatest effect during the breeding season in UMGL as well as during the non-breeding season for species overwintering in South America. We provide a model for adaptive management of migratory animals in the face of projected climate change, including identification of priority species, research needs, and regions within non-breeding ranges for potential conservation partnerships.

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources.

PubMed

Buotte, Polly C; Peterson, David L; McKelvey, Kevin S; Hicke, Jeffrey A

2016-03-15

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mapping the groundwater vulnerability for pollution at the pan African scale.

PubMed

Ouedraogo, Issoufou; Defourny, Pierre; Vanclooster, Marnik

2016-02-15

We estimated vulnerability and pollution risk of groundwater at the pan-African scale. We therefore compiled the most recent continental scale information on soil, land use, geology, hydrogeology and climate in a Geographical Information System (GIS) at a resolution of 15 km × 15 km and at the scale of 1:60,000,000. The groundwater vulnerability map was constructed by means of the DRASTIC method. The map reveals that groundwater is highly vulnerable in Central and West Africa, where the watertable is very low. In addition, very low vulnerability is found in the large sedimentary basins of the African deserts where groundwater is situated in very deep aquifers. The groundwater pollution risk map is obtained by overlaying the DRASTIC vulnerability map with land use. The northern, central and western part of the African continent is dominated by high pollution risk classes and this is very strongly related to shallow groundwater systems and the development of agricultural activities. Subsequently, we performed a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the relative importance of each parameter on groundwater vulnerability and pollution risk. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the removal of the impact of vadose zone, the depth of the groundwater, the hydraulic conductivity and the net recharge causes a large variation in the mapped vulnerability and pollution risk. The mapping model was validated using nitrate concentration data of groundwater as a proxy of pollution risk. Pan-African concentration data were inferred from a meta-analysis of literature data. Results shows a good match between nitrate concentration and the groundwater pollution risk classes. The pan African assessment of groundwater vulnerability and pollution risk is expected to be of particular value for water policy and for designing groundwater resources management programs. We expect, however, that this assessment can be strongly improved when better pan African monitoring data related to groundwater pollution will be integrated in the assessment methodology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

FUZZY DECISION ANALYSIS FOR INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

EPA Science Inventory

A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators is developed. This is a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The method is capable ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumula...

Assessment of Vulnerability to Coccidioidomycosis in Arizona and California.

PubMed

Shriber, Jennifer; Conlon, Kathryn C; Benedict, Kaitlin; McCotter, Orion Z; Bell, Jesse E

2017-06-23

Coccidioidomycosis is a fungal infection endemic to the southwestern United States, particularly Arizona and California. Its incidence has increased, potentially due in part to the effects of changing climatic variables on fungal growth and spore dissemination. This study aims to quantify the county-level vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis in Arizona and California and to assess the relationships between population vulnerability and climate variability. The variables representing exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were combined to calculate county level vulnerability indices. Three methods were used: (1) principal components analysis; (2) quartile weighting; and (3) percentile weighting. Two sets of indices, "unsupervised" and "supervised", were created. Each index was correlated with coccidioidomycosis incidence data from 2000-2014. The supervised percentile index had the highest correlation; it was then correlated with variability measures for temperature, precipitation, and drought. The supervised percentile index was significantly correlated ( p < 0.05) with coccidioidomycosis incidence in both states. Moderate, positive significant associations ( p < 0.05) were found between index scores and climate variability when both states were concurrently analyzed and when California was analyzed separately. This research adds to the body of knowledge that could be used to target interventions to vulnerable counties and provides support for the hypothesis that population vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis is associated with climate variability.

Assessment of Vulnerability to Coccidioidomycosis in Arizona and California

PubMed Central

Conlon, Kathryn C.; Benedict, Kaitlin; McCotter, Orion Z.; Bell, Jesse E.

2017-01-01

Coccidioidomycosis is a fungal infection endemic to the southwestern United States, particularly Arizona and California. Its incidence has increased, potentially due in part to the effects of changing climatic variables on fungal growth and spore dissemination. This study aims to quantify the county-level vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis in Arizona and California and to assess the relationships between population vulnerability and climate variability. The variables representing exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were combined to calculate county level vulnerability indices. Three methods were used: (1) principal components analysis; (2) quartile weighting; and (3) percentile weighting. Two sets of indices, “unsupervised” and “supervised”, were created. Each index was correlated with coccidioidomycosis incidence data from 2000–2014. The supervised percentile index had the highest correlation; it was then correlated with variability measures for temperature, precipitation, and drought. The supervised percentile index was significantly correlated (p < 0.05) with coccidioidomycosis incidence in both states. Moderate, positive significant associations (p < 0.05) were found between index scores and climate variability when both states were concurrently analyzed and when California was analyzed separately. This research adds to the body of knowledge that could be used to target interventions to vulnerable counties and provides support for the hypothesis that population vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis is associated with climate variability. PMID:28644403

Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Model (I-VAM).

PubMed

Ezell, Barry Charles

2007-06-01

Quantifying vulnerability to critical infrastructure has not been adequately addressed in the literature. Thus, the purpose of this article is to present a model that quantifies vulnerability. Vulnerability is defined as a measure of system susceptibility to threat scenarios. This article asserts that vulnerability is a condition of the system and it can be quantified using the Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Model (I-VAM). The model is presented and then applied to a medium-sized clean water system. The model requires subject matter experts (SMEs) to establish value functions and weights, and to assess protection measures of the system. Simulation is used to account for uncertainty in measurement, aggregate expert assessment, and to yield a vulnerability (Omega) density function. Results demonstrate that I-VAM is useful to decisionmakers who prefer quantification to qualitative treatment of vulnerability. I-VAM can be used to quantify vulnerability to other infrastructures, supervisory control and data acquisition systems (SCADA), and distributed control systems (DCS).

Threat driven modeling framework using petri nets for e-learning system.

PubMed

Khamparia, Aditya; Pandey, Babita

2016-01-01

Vulnerabilities at various levels are main cause of security risks in e-learning system. This paper presents a modified threat driven modeling framework, to identify the threats after risk assessment which requires mitigation and how to mitigate those threats. To model those threat mitigations aspects oriented stochastic petri nets are used. This paper included security metrics based on vulnerabilities present in e-learning system. The Common Vulnerability Scoring System designed to provide a normalized method for rating vulnerabilities which will be used as basis in metric definitions and calculations. A case study has been also proposed which shows the need and feasibility of using aspect oriented stochastic petri net models for threat modeling which improves reliability, consistency and robustness of the e-learning system.

6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability... of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and approve in writing all Security Vulnerability Assessments that satisfy the requirements of § 27.215...

Assessment of Masonry Buildings Subjected to Landslide-Induced Settlements: From Load Path Method to Evolutionary Optimization Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmisano, Fabrizio; Elia, Angelo

2017-10-01

One of the main difficulties, when dealing with landslide structural vulnerability, is the diagnosis of the causes of crack patterns. This is also due to the excessive complexity of models based on classical structural mechanics that makes them inappropriate especially when there is the necessity to perform a rapid vulnerability assessment at the territorial scale. This is why, a new approach, based on a ‘simple model’ (i.e. the Load Path Method, LPM), has been proposed by Palmisano and Elia for the interpretation of the behaviour of masonry buildings subjected to landslide-induced settlements. However, the LPM is very useful for rapidly finding the 'most plausible solution' instead of the exact solution. To find the solution, optimization algorithms are necessary. In this scenario, this article aims to show how the Bidirectional Evolutionary Structural Optimization method by Huang and Xie, can be very useful to optimize the strut-and-tie models obtained by using the Load Path Method.

Coastal vulnerability: climate change and natural hazards perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romieu, E.; Vinchon, C.

2009-04-01

Introduction Studying coastal zones as a territorial concept (Integrated coastal zone management) is an essential issue for managers, as they have to consider many different topics (natural hazards, resources management, tourism, climate change…). The recent approach in terms of "coastal vulnerability" studies (since the 90's) is the main tool used nowadays to help them in evaluating impacts of natural hazards on coastal zones, specially considering climate change. This present communication aims to highlight the difficulties in integrating this concept in risk analysis as it is usually practiced in natural hazards sciences. 1) Coastal vulnerability as a recent issue The concept of coastal vulnerability mainly appears in the International panel on climate change works of 1992 (IPCC. 2001), where it is presented as essential for climate change adaptation. The concept has been defined by a common methodology which proposes the assessment of seven indicators, in regards to a sea level rise of 1m in 2100: people affected, people at risk, capital value at loss, land at loss, wetland at loss, potential adaptation costs, people at risk assuming this adaptation. Many national assessments have been implemented (Nicholls, et al. 1995) and a global assessment was proposed for three indicators (Nicholls, et al. 1999). The DINAS-Coast project reuses this methodology to produce the DIVA-tool for coastal managers (Vafeidis, et al. 2004). Besides, many other methodologies for national or regional coastal vulnerability assessments have been developed (review by (UNFCCC. 2008). The use of aggregated vulnerability indicators (including geomorphology, hydrodynamics, climate change…) is widespread: the USGS coastal vulnerability index is used worldwide and was completed by a social vulnerability index (Boruff, et al. 2005). Those index-based methods propose a vulnerability mapping which visualise indicators of erosion, submersion and/or socio economic sensibility in coastal zones. This concept is a great tool for policy makers to help managing their action and taking into account climate change (McFadden, et al. 2006). However, in those approaches, vulnerability is the output itself (cost of effective impacts, geomorphologic impacts…), but is not integrated it in a risk analysis. Furthermore, those studies emerged from a climatic perspective, which leads to consider climate change as a hazard or pressure whereas risk studies commonly consider hazards such as erosion and flooding, where climate change modifies the drivers of the hazard. 2) The natural hazards and socio economic perspectives In order to reduce impacts of natural hazards, decision makers need a complete risk assessment (probability of losses). Past studies on natural risks (landslide, earthquake...) highlighted the pertinence of defining risk as a combination of : (1)hazard occurrence and intensity, (2) exposition and (3)vulnerability of assets and population to this hazard (e.g. Douglas. 2007, Sarewitz, et al. 2003). Following the Renn and Klinke risk assessment frame, high uncertainties associated with coastal risks considering climatic and anthropic change highlights the importance of working on that concept of "vulnerability" (Klinke and Renn. 2002). Past studies on vulnerability assessment showed a frequently mentioned gap between "impact based" and "human based" points of view. It is nowadays a great issue for natural risk sciences. Many research efforts in FP7 projects such as MOVE and ENSURE focus on integrating the different dimensions of vulnerability (Turner, et al. 2003, Birkmann. 2006). Coastal risk studies highlight another issue of concern. We previously detailed the different use of the term "vulnerability" in the coastal context, quite different of the "natural risk's" use. Interaction of social, economic and physical sciences is considered within two french research projects (Vulsaco, Miseeva), in order to identify the vulnerability of a system to flooding or erosion (i.e. its characteristics that create potential harm), and integrate them in a risk assessment. Global change is considered by modifications of hazard, anthropogenic pressure and exposition, in order to point out possible modification of vulnerabilities. 3) Learning from both perspectives Coastal vulnerability in its "end in itself" and climate change dimension is a widespread tool for decision makers but it can be inadequate when vulnerability is a component of risk. This is mainly due to the consideration of climate change as a "hazard", so that coastal vulnerability is seen as the possible adverse impacts of climate change. As a matter of fact, this concept is clearly well considered by managers, who feel deeply concerned by climate change. However, coastal risk managers would gain in considering climate change more like a driver able to modify existing hazards than like the pressure in itself. Using this concept could lead to new perspectives of coastal risk mitigation for decision makers (social vulnerability, risk perception…), learning from other disciplines and sciences thanks to research projects such as MOVE (FP7). Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the BRGM coastal team for rich discussions and fruitful collaborations in coastal vulnerability studies, more specially Déborah Idier for animating the Vulsaco project and Manuel Garcin for his work on tsunamis in Sri Lanka. They are also grateful to the MISEEVA and MOVE teams, which are doing some great trans-disciplinary work. References Birkmann, J., 2006. Measuring vulnerability to Natural Hazards : towards disaster resilient societies. United Nations University Press. Boruff, B. J., Emrich, C., Cutter, S. L., 2005. Erosion hazard vulnerability of US coastal counties. Journal of Coastal Research. 21, 932-942. Douglas, J., 2007. Physical vulnerability modelling in natural hazard risk assessment. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 7, 283-288. IPCC, 2001. Climate change 2001 : synthesis report. A contribution of working groups I, II and III to the Third Assesment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Klinke, A. and Renn, O., 2002. A new approach to risk evaluation and management : risk based, precaution based and discourse based strategies. Risk Analysis. 22, 1071-1094. McFadden, L., Nicholls, R.J., Penning-Rowsell, E. (Eds.), 2006. Managing coastal vulnerability. Elsevier Science. Nicholls, R. J., Hoozemans, F. M. J., Marchand, M., 1999. Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses. Global Environmental Change, Part A: Human and Policy Dimensions. 9, S69-S87. Nicholls, R. J., Leatherman, S. P., Volonte, C. R., 1995. Impacts and responses to sea-level rise; qualitative and quantitative assessments; Potential impacts of accelerated sea-level rise on developing countries. Journal of Coastal Research. Special issue 14, 26-43. Sarewitz, D., Pielke, R., Keykhah, M., 2003. Vulnerability and Risk: Some Thoughts from a Political and Policy Perspective. Risk Analysis. 23, 805-810. Turner, B. L.,II, Kasperson, R. E., Matson, P. A., McCarthy, J. J., Corell, R. W., Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Kasperson, J. X., Luers, A., Martello, M. L., Polsky, C., Pulsipher, A., Schiller, A., 2003. A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA. 100, 8074-8079. UNFCCC, 2008. Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. Vafeidis, A., Nicholls, R., McFadden, L., 2004. Developing a database for global vulnerability analysis of coastal zones: The DINAS-COAST project and the DIVA tool.

Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Framework, Third Edition

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-11-01

The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Framework (the Framework), third edition, is a manual to help transportation agencies and their partners assess the vulnerability of transportation infrastructu...

Biomechanics of Atherosclerotic Coronary Plaque: Site, Stability and In Vivo Elasticity Modeling

PubMed Central

Ohayon, Jacques; Finet, Gérard; Le Floc’h, Simon; Cloutier, Guy; Gharib, Ahmed M.; Heroux, Julie; Pettigrew, Roderic I.

2016-01-01

Coronary atheroma develop in local sites that are widely variable among patients and are considerably variable in their vulnerability for rupture. This article summarizes studies conducted by our collaborative laboratories on predictive biomechanical modeling of coronary plaques. It aims to give insights into the role of biomechanics in the development and localization of atherosclerosis, the morphologic features that determine vulnerable plaque stability, and emerging in vivo imaging techniques that may detect and characterize vulnerable plaque. Composite biomechanical and hemodynamic factors that influence the actual site of development of plaques have been studied. Plaque vulnerability, in vivo, is more challenging to assess. Important steps have been made in defining the biomechanical factors that are predictive of plaque rupture and the likelihood of this occurring if characteristic features are known. A critical key in defining plaque vulnerability is the accurate quantification of both the morphology and the mechanical properties of the diseased arteries. Recently, an early IVUS based palpography technique developed to assess local strain, elasticity and mechanical instabilities has been successfully revisited and improved to account for complex plaque geometries. This is based on an initial best estimation of the plaque components’ contours, allowing subsequent iteration for elastic modulus assessment as a basis for plaque stability determination. The improved method has also been preliminarily evaluated in patients with successful histologic correlation. Further clinical evaluation and refinement are on the horizon. PMID:24043605

Psychosocial Needs Assessment among Earthquake Survivors in Lorestan Province with an Emphasis on the Vulnerable Groups

PubMed Central

Forouzan, A.; Eftekhari, M. Baradaran; Falahat, K.; Dejman, M.; Heidari, N.; Habibi, E.

2013-01-01

Introduction: Iran is one of the ten most earthquake prone countries in the world. Earthquakes not only cause new psychological needs among the population but particularly so when one considers vulnerable groups. This in - depth study was conducted with the aim of assessing psychosocial needs six months after an earthquake happened in the west of the county in Lorestan province. Methods: This is a qualitative study using focus group discussion that focuses mainly on the vulnerable groups (women, children, elderly and disabled people) after an earthquake in Boz-azna; a village in Lorestan province in western part of Iran. Findings: Results of the psychosocial assessment indicated feelings of anxiety and worries in four vulnerable groups. Horror, hyper-excitement, avoidance and disturbing thoughts were observed in all groups with the exception of the elderly. Educational failures, loneliness and isolation were highlighted in children. All groups encountered socio-economic needs that included loss of assets and sense of insecurity and also reproductive problems were reported in women's group. Discussion and Conclusion: Modification of a protocol on psychosocial support considering the context of the rural and urban areas with emphasis on the specific needs of the vulnerable groups is an appropriate strategy in crisis management. It seems that appropriate public awareness regarding assistance programs can be effective in reducing stress and needs of disaster survivors. PMID:23777724

Development of a security vulnerability assessment process for the RAMCAP chemical sector.

PubMed

Moore, David A; Fuller, Brad; Hazzan, Michael; Jones, J William

2007-04-11

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Directorate of Information Analysis & Infrastructure Protection (IAIP), Protective Services Division (PSD), contracted the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Innovative Technologies Institute, LLC (ASME ITI, LLC) to develop guidance on Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP). AcuTech Consulting Group (AcuTech) has been contracted by ASME ITI, LLC, to provide assistance by facilitating the development of sector-specific guidance on vulnerability analysis and management for critical asset protection for the chemical manufacturing, petroleum refining, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sectors. This activity involves two key tasks for these three sectors: Development of a screening to supplement DHS understanding of the assets that are important to protect against terrorist attack and to prioritize the activities. Development of a standard security vulnerability analysis (SVA) framework for the analysis of consequences, vulnerabilities, and threats. This project involves the cooperative effort of numerous leading industrial companies, industry trade associations, professional societies, and security and safety consultants representative of those sectors. Since RAMCAP is a voluntary program for ongoing risk management for homeland security, sector coordinating councils are being asked to assist in communicating the goals of the program and in encouraging participation. The RAMCAP project will have a profound and positive impact on all sectors as it is fully developed, rolled-out and implemented. It will help define the facilities and operations of national and regional interest for the threat of terrorism, define standardized methods for analyzing consequences, vulnerabilities, and threats, and describe best security practices of the industry. This paper will describe the results of the security vulnerability analysis process that was developed and field tested for the chemical manufacturing sector. This method was developed through the cooperation of the many organizations and the individuals involved from the chemical sector RAMCAP development activities. The RAMCAP SVA method is intended to provide a common basis for making vulnerability assessments and risk-based decisions for homeland security. Mr. Moore serves as the coordinator for the chemical manufacturing, petroleum refining, and LNG sectors for the RAMCAP project and Dr. Jones is the chief technology officer for ASME-ITI, LLC for RAMCAP.

INTEGRATING A LANDSCAPE HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS FOR WATERSHED ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Methods to provide linkages between a hydrologic modeling tool (AGW A) and landscape assessment tool (A TtILA) for determining the vulnerability of semi-arid landscapes to natural and human-induced landscape pattern changes have been developed. The objective of this study is to ...

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to pollution: a combination of GIS, fuzzy logic and decision making techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gemitzi, Alexandra; Petalas, Christos; Tsihrintzis, Vassilios A.; Pisinaras, Vassilios

2006-03-01

The assessment of groundwater vulnerability to pollution aims at highlighting areas at a high risk of being polluted. This study presents a methodology, to estimate the risk of an aquifer to be polluted from concentrated and/or dispersed sources, which applies an overlay and index method involving several parameters. The parameters are categorized into three factor groups: factor group 1 includes parameters relevant to the internal aquifer system’s properties, thus determining the intrinsic aquifer vulnerability to pollution; factor group 2 comprises parameters relevant to the external stresses to the system, such as human activities and rainfall effects; factor group 3 incorporates specific geological settings, such as the presence of geothermal fields or salt intrusion zones, into the computation process. Geographical information systems have been used for data acquisition and processing, coupled with a multicriteria evaluation technique enhanced with fuzzy factor standardization. Moreover, besides assigning weights to factors, a second set of weights, i.e., order weights, has been applied to factors on a pixel by pixel basis, thus allowing control of the level of risk in the vulnerability determination and the enhancement of local site characteristics. Individual analysis of each factor group resulted in three intermediate groundwater vulnerability to pollution maps, which were combined in order to produce the final composite groundwater vulnerability map for the study area. The method has been applied in the region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace (Northern Greece), an area of approximately 14,000 km2. The methodology has been tested and calibrated against the measured nitrate concentration in wells, in the northwest part of the study area, providing results related to the aggregation and weighting procedure.

Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-12-01

The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

Assessing social vulnerability to climate change in human communities near public forests and grasslands: a framework for resource managers and planners

Treesearch

A. Paige Fischer; Travis Paveglio; Matthew Carroll; Daniel Murphy; Hannah Brenkert-Smith

2013-01-01

Public land management agencies have incorporated the concept of vulnerability into protocols for assessing and planning for climate change impacts on public forests and grasslands. However, resource managers and planners have little guidance for how to address the social aspects of vulnerability in these assessments and plans. Failure to assess social vulnerability to...

The Predictive Validity of the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) for Multiple Adverse Outcomes in a Secure Psychiatric Inpatient Setting.

PubMed

O'Shea, Laura E; Picchioni, Marco M; Dickens, Geoffrey L

2016-04-01

The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) aims to assist mental health practitioners to estimate an individual's short-term risk for a range of adverse outcomes via structured consideration of their risk ("Vulnerabilities") and protective factors ("Strengths") in 20 areas. It has demonstrated predictive validity for aggression but this is less established for other outcomes. We collated START assessments for N = 200 adults in a secure mental health hospital and ascertained 3-month risk event incidence using the START Outcomes Scale. The specific risk estimates, which are the tool developers' suggested method of overall assessment, predicted aggression, self-harm/suicidality, and victimization, and had incremental validity over the Strength and Vulnerability scales for these outcomes. The Strength scale had incremental validity over the Vulnerability scale for aggressive outcomes; therefore, consideration of protective factors had demonstrable value in their prediction. Further evidence is required to support use of the START for the full range of outcomes it aims to predict. © The Author(s) 2015.

Coverage of Large-Scale Food Fortification of Edible Oil, Wheat Flour, and Maize Flour Varies Greatly by Vehicle and Country but Is Consistently Lower among the Most Vulnerable: Results from Coverage Surveys in 8 Countries123

PubMed Central

Aaron, Grant J; Friesen, Valerie M; Jungjohann, Svenja; Garrett, Greg S; Myatt, Mark

2017-01-01

Background: Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) of commonly consumed food vehicles is widely implemented in low- and middle-income countries. Many programs have monitoring information gaps and most countries fail to assess program coverage. Objective: The aim of this work was to present LSFF coverage survey findings (overall and in vulnerable populations) from 18 programs (7 wheat flour, 4 maize flour, and 7 edible oil programs) conducted in 8 countries between 2013 and 2015. Methods: A Fortification Assessment Coverage Toolkit (FACT) was developed to standardize the assessments. Three indicators were used to assess the relations between coverage and vulnerability: 1) poverty, 2) poor dietary diversity, and 3) rural residence. Three measures of coverage were assessed: 1) consumption of the vehicle, 2) consumption of a fortifiable vehicle, and 3) consumption of a fortified vehicle. Individual program performance was assessed based on the following: 1) achieving overall coverage ≥50%, 2) achieving coverage of ≥75% in ≥1 vulnerable group, and 3) achieving equity in coverage for ≥1 vulnerable group. Results: Coverage varied widely by food vehicle and country. Only 2 of the 18 LSFF programs assessed met all 3 program performance criteria. The 2 main program bottlenecks were a poor choice of vehicle and failure to fortify a fortifiable vehicle (i.e., absence of fortification). Conclusions: The results highlight the importance of sound program design and routine monitoring and evaluation. There is strong evidence of the impact and cost-effectiveness of LSFF; however, impact can only be achieved when the necessary activities and processes during program design and implementation are followed. The FACT approach fills an important gap in the availability of standardized tools. The LSFF programs assessed here need to be re-evaluated to determine whether to further invest in the programs, whether other vehicles are appropriate, and whether other approaches are needed. PMID:28404836

Coverage of Large-Scale Food Fortification of Edible Oil, Wheat Flour, and Maize Flour Varies Greatly by Vehicle and Country but Is Consistently Lower among the Most Vulnerable: Results from Coverage Surveys in 8 Countries.

PubMed

Aaron, Grant J; Friesen, Valerie M; Jungjohann, Svenja; Garrett, Greg S; Neufeld, Lynnette M; Myatt, Mark

2017-05-01

Background: Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) of commonly consumed food vehicles is widely implemented in low- and middle-income countries. Many programs have monitoring information gaps and most countries fail to assess program coverage. Objective: The aim of this work was to present LSFF coverage survey findings (overall and in vulnerable populations) from 18 programs (7 wheat flour, 4 maize flour, and 7 edible oil programs) conducted in 8 countries between 2013 and 2015. Methods: A Fortification Assessment Coverage Toolkit (FACT) was developed to standardize the assessments. Three indicators were used to assess the relations between coverage and vulnerability: 1 ) poverty, 2 ) poor dietary diversity, and 3 ) rural residence. Three measures of coverage were assessed: 1 ) consumption of the vehicle, 2 ) consumption of a fortifiable vehicle, and 3 ) consumption of a fortified vehicle. Individual program performance was assessed based on the following: 1 ) achieving overall coverage ≥50%, 2) achieving coverage of ≥75% in ≥1 vulnerable group, and 3 ) achieving equity in coverage for ≥1 vulnerable group. Results: Coverage varied widely by food vehicle and country. Only 2 of the 18 LSFF programs assessed met all 3 program performance criteria. The 2 main program bottlenecks were a poor choice of vehicle and failure to fortify a fortifiable vehicle (i.e., absence of fortification). Conclusions: The results highlight the importance of sound program design and routine monitoring and evaluation. There is strong evidence of the impact and cost-effectiveness of LSFF; however, impact can only be achieved when the necessary activities and processes during program design and implementation are followed. The FACT approach fills an important gap in the availability of standardized tools. The LSFF programs assessed here need to be re-evaluated to determine whether to further invest in the programs, whether other vehicles are appropriate, and whether other approaches are needed.

Sanitary protection zoning based on time-dependent vulnerability assessment model - case examples at two different type of aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Živanović, Vladimir; Jemcov, Igor; Dragišić, Veselin; Atanacković, Nebojša

2017-04-01

Delineation of sanitary protection zones of groundwater source is a comprehensive and multidisciplinary task. Uniform methodology for protection zoning for various type of aquifers is not established. Currently applied methods mostly rely on horizontal groundwater travel time toward the tapping structure. On the other hand, groundwater vulnerability assessment methods evaluate the protective function of unsaturated zone as an important part of groundwater source protection. In some particular cases surface flow might also be important, because of rapid transfer of contaminants toward the zones with intense infiltration. For delineation of sanitary protection zones three major components should be analysed: vertical travel time through unsaturated zone, horizontal travel time through saturated zone and surface water travel time toward intense infiltration zones. Integrating the aforementioned components into one time-dependent model represents a basis of presented method for delineation of groundwater source protection zones in rocks and sediments of different porosity. The proposed model comprises of travel time components of surface water, as well as groundwater (horizontal and vertical component). The results obtained using the model, represent the groundwater vulnerability as the sum of the surface and groundwater travel time and corresponds to the travel time of potential contaminants from the ground surface to the tapping structure. This vulnerability assessment approach do not consider contaminant properties (intrinsic vulnerability) although it can be easily improved for evaluating the specific groundwater vulnerability. This concept of the sanitary protection zones was applied at two different type of aquifers: karstic aquifer of catchment area of Blederija springs and "Beli Timok" source of intergranular shallow aquifer. The first one represents a typical karst hydrogeological system with part of the catchment with allogenic recharge, and the second one, the groundwater source within shallow intergranular alluvial aquifer, dominantly recharged by river bank filtration. For sanitary protection zones delineation, the applied method has shown the importance of introducing all travel time components equally. In the case of the karstic source, the importance of the surface flow toward ponor zones has been emphasized, as a consequence of rapid travel time of water in relation to diffuse infiltration from autogenic part. When it comes to the shallow intergranular aquifer, the character of the unsaturated zone gets more prominent role in the source protection, as important buffer of the vertical movement downward. The applicability of proposed method has been shown regardless of the type of the aquifer, and at the same time intelligible results of the delineated sanitary protection zones are possible to validate with various methods. Key words: groundwater protection zoning, time dependent model, karst aquifer, intergranular aquifer, groundwater source protection

Assessing Risks from Cyclones for Human Lives and Livelihoods in the Coastal Region of Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Khan, Amanat Ullah; Kervyn, Matthieu

2017-01-01

As a disaster prone country, Bangladesh is regularly hit by natural hazards, including devastating cyclones, such as in 1970, 1991 and 2007. Although the number of cyclones’ fatalities reduced from 0.3 million in 1970 to a few thousand or fewer in recent events, loss of lives and impact on livelihoods remains a concern. It depends on the meteorological characteristics of cyclone and the general vulnerability and capacity of the exposed population. In that perspective, a spatially explicit risk assessment is an essential step towards targeted disaster risk reduction. This study aims at analyzing the spatial variation of the different factors contributing to the risk for coastal communities at regional scale, including the distribution of the hazards, exposure, vulnerability and capacity. An exploratory factor analysis method is used to map vulnerability contrasts between local administrative units. Indexing and ranking using geospatial techniques are used to produce maps of exposure, hazard, vulnerability, capacities and risk. Results show that vulnerable populations and exposed areas are distributed along the land sea boundary, islands and major inland rivers. The hazard, assessed from the density of historical cyclone paths, is highest in the southwestern part of the coast. Whereas cyclones shelters are shown to properly serve the most vulnerable populations as priority evacuation centers, the overall pattern of capacity accounting for building quality and road network shows a more complex pattern. Resultant risk maps also provide a reasonable basis from which to take further structural measures to minimize loss of lives in the upcoming cyclones. PMID:28757550

Resilience, Vulnerability and Residual Threat: An Assessment from Indian Sundarban

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, T.

2016-12-01

The estuarine islands within Indian Sundarban are extremely vulnerable due to climate change, erosion, flooding and increasing population pressure. Around 4.6 million people are living under constant threat of climatic shocks, affecting their farm based economy and dependency on forest resources for their livelihood. This paper attempts to focus on the dynamics of system's resilience in the backdrop of higher level of vulnerability. Globally the assessment of island vulnerability is generally more focused towards the climate change impacts, rather than taking into account other determining drivers with proper weightage. Three estuarine islands namely Sagar, Ghoramara and Mousani at the western part of Indian Sundarban Delta (ISD) have been chosen for this study to derive the indicator based scoring method using the household survey data from twenty seven (27) sampled `Mouza' (lowest administrative boundary; village) with cluster random sampling. Vulnerability and resilience of these islands have been calculated using the indicators like housing condition, electrification, population density, accretion, adult secondary education level, percentage of people `Below Poverty Line' (BPL) based on per capita income. Residual threats for these islands have been obtained by subtracting the score of resilience and vulnerability of the system. Result suggests that all these islands are in less resilient condition to combat the negative impact of the influencing factors. Sapkhali, Ghoramara, Bankimnagar, Shibpur and Baliara are becoming sensitive from excess residual threats. This study is an initiation for identifying the thrust areas need to address with effective policy adaptation, necessary to minimize the existing vulnerable conditions in these islands. Key words: Vulnerability, Resilience, Residual threat, Indian Sundarban

Integrating indicator-based geostatistical estimation and aquifer vulnerability of nitrate-N for establishing groundwater protection zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, Cheng-Shin; Chen, Shih-Kai

2015-04-01

Groundwater nitrate-N contamination occurs frequently in agricultural regions, primarily resulting from surface agricultural activities. The focus of this study is to establish groundwater protection zones based on indicator-based geostatistical estimation and aquifer vulnerability of nitrate-N in the Choushui River alluvial fan in Taiwan. The groundwater protection zones are determined by univariate indicator kriging (IK) estimation, aquifer vulnerability assessment using logistic regression (LR), and integration of the IK estimation and aquifer vulnerability using simple IK with local prior means (sIKlpm). First, according to the statistical significance of source, transport, and attenuation factors dominating the occurrence of nitrate-N pollution, a LR model was adopted to evaluate aquifer vulnerability and to characterize occurrence probability of nitrate-N exceeding 0.5 mg/L. Moreover, the probabilities estimated using LR were regarded as local prior means. IK was then used to estimate the actual extent of nitrate-N pollution. The integration of the IK estimation and aquifer vulnerability was obtained using sIKlpm. Finally, groundwater protection zones were probabilistically determined using the three aforementioned methods, and the estimated accuracy of the delineated groundwater protection zones was gauged using a cross-validation procedure based on observed nitrate-N data. The results reveal that the integration of the IK estimation and aquifer vulnerability using sIKlpm is more robust than univariate IK estimation and aquifer vulnerability assessment using LR for establishing groundwater protection zones. Rigorous management practices for fertilizer use should be implemented in orchards situated in the determined groundwater protection zones.

Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change.

PubMed

Markovic, Danijela; Carrizo, Savrina F; Kärcher, Oskar; Walz, Ariane; David, Jonathan N W

2017-09-01

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers <25% of the most vulnerable catchments. Practical steps need to be taken to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Social vulnerability assessment: a growing practice in Europe?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapsell, S.; McC arthy, S.

2012-04-01

This paper builds upon work on social vulnerability from the CapHaz-Net consortium, an ongoing research project funded by the European Commission in its 7th Framework Programme. The project focuses on the social dimensions of natural hazards, as well as on regional practices of risk prevention and management, and aims at improving the resilience of European societies to natural hazards, paying particular attention to social capacity building. The topic of social vulnerability is one of seven themes being addressed in the project. There are various rationales for examining the relevance of social vulnerability to natural hazards. Vulnerability assessment has now been accepted as a requirement for the effective development of emergency management capability, and assessment of social vulnerability has been recognised as being integral to understanding the risk to natural hazards. The aim of our research was to examine social vulnerability, how it might be understood in the context of natural hazards in Europe, and how social vulnerability can be addressed to increase social capacity. The work comprised a review of research on social vulnerability to different natural hazards within Europe and included concepts and definitions of social vulnerability (and related concepts), the purpose of vulnerability assessment and who decides who is vulnerable, different approaches to assessing or measuring social vulnerability (such as the use of 'classical' quantitative vulnerability indicators and qualitative community-based approaches, along with the advantages and disadvantages of both), conceptual frameworks for assessing social vulnerability and three case studies of social vulnerability studies within Europe: flash floods in the Italian Alps, fluvial flooding in Germany and heat waves in Spain. The review reveals variable application of social vulnerability analysis across Europe and there are indications why this might be the case. Reasons could range from the scale of country policy and the particular risk management focus to the smaller scale risk management perceptions of the analysis techniques employed being to resource expensive, difficult to interpret or to operationalise. This paper will provide a context with some empirical examples to perhaps explain the growing popularity of concepts such as resilience and capacity building which lie more comfortably with policy makers and risk managers as concepts which focus on the solution rather than identifying a problem by assessing social vulnerability.

Coastal erosion vulnerability and risk assessment focusing in tourism beach use.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandrakis, George

2016-04-01

It is well established that the global market for tourism services is a key source of economic growth. Especially among Mediterranean countries, the tourism sector is one of the principal sectors driving national economies. With the majority of the mass tourism activities concentrated around coastal areas, coastal erosion, inter alia, poses a significant threat to coastal economies that depend heavily on revenues from tourism. The economic implications of beach erosion were mainly focused in the cost of coastal protection measures, instead of the revenue losses from tourism. For this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and economic activity need to be identified. To achieve this, a joint environmental and economic evaluation approach of the problem can provide a managerial tool to mitigate the impact of beach erosion in tourism, through realistic cost-benefit scenarios for planning alternative protection measures. Such a multipurpose tool needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which relationships can be better understood when distributed and analyzed along the geographical space. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index (BVI) method. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this econometric modelling, Beach Value is related with economic and environmental attributes like, Beach width, distance from the city) of each sector, tourism attributes (Coastal business; Number of hotels; Number of hotel rooms; Room price; Beach attendance). All calculations are implemented in a GIS database, organised in five levels. As case study area for the application of the method is selected Crete Island, while for the small scale four beach tourist destinations in the Island of Crete, with different vulnerabilities. In the small scale vulnerability analysis, the sectors of the beach which are most vulnerable were identified, and risk analysis was made based on the revenue losses. Acknowledgments This work was implemented within the framework of "Post-Doctoral Excellence Scholarship. State Scholarships Foundation, Greece IKY-Siemens Action"

Index based regional vulnerability assessment to cyclones hazards of coastal area of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammad, Q. A.; Kervyn, M.; Khan, A. U.

2016-12-01

Cyclone, storm surge, coastal flooding, salinity intrusion, tornado, nor'wester, and thunderstorms are the listed natural hazards in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. Bangladesh was hit by devastating cyclones in 1970, 1991, 2007, 2009, and 2016. Intensity and frequency of natural hazards in the coastal area are likely to increase in future due to climate change. Risk assessment is one of the most important steps of disaster risk reduction. As a climate change victim nation, Bangladesh claims compensation from green climate fund. It also created its own climate funds. It is therefore very important to assess vulnerability of the coast of Bangladesh to natural hazards for efficient allocation of financial investment to support the national risk reduction. This study aims at identifying the spatial variations in factors contributing to vulnerability of the coastal inhabitants of Bangladesh to natural hazards. An exploratory factor analysis method has been used to assess the vulnerability at each local administrative unit. The 141 initially selected 141 socio-economic indicators were reduced to 41 by converting some of them to meaningful widely accepted indicators and removing highly correlated indicators. Principle component analysis further reduced 41 indicators to 13 dimensions which explained 79% of total variation. PCA dimensions show three types of characteristics of the people that may lead people towards vulnerability. They are (a) demographic, education and job opportunities, (b) access to basic needs and facilities, and (c) special needs people. Vulnerability maps of the study area has been prepared by weighted overlay of the dimensions. Study revealed that 29 and 8 percent of total coastal area are very high and high vulnerable to natural hazards respectively. These are distributed along sea boundary and major rivers. Comparison of this spatial distribution with the capacities to face disaster show that highly vulnerable areas are well covered by cyclone shelters but are not the zone with the most resistant building and the most dense road networks. The findings will be helpful for policy makers to initiate, plan and implement short, medium and long term DRR strategies.

An Analysis of the Extent of Social Inclusion and Equity Consideration in Malawi’s National HIV and AIDS Policy Review Process

PubMed Central

Chinyama, Mathews Junior; MacLachlan, Malcolm; McVeigh, Joanne; Huss, Tessy; Gawamadzi, Sylvester

2018-01-01

Background: Equity and social inclusion for vulnerable groups in policy development processes and resulting documents remain a challenge globally. Most often, the marginalization of vulnerable groups is overlooked in both the planning and practice of health service delivery. Such marginalization may occur because authorities deem the targeting of those who already have better access to healthcare a cheaper and easier way to achieve short-term health gains. The Government of Malawi wishes to achieve an equitable and inclusive HIV and AIDS Policy. The aim of this study is to assess the extent to which the Malawi Policy review process addressed regional and international health priorities of equity and social inclusion for vulnerable groups in the policy content and policy revision process. Methods: This research design comprised two phases. First, the content of the Malawi HIV and AIDS Policy was assessed using EquiFrame regarding its coverage of 21 Core Concepts of human rights and inclusion of 12 Vulnerable Groups. Second, the engagement of vulnerable groups in the policy process was assessed using the EquIPP matrix. For the latter, 10 interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of representatives of public sector, civil society organizations and development partners who participated in the policy revision process. Data was also collected from documented information of the policy processes. Results: Our analyses indicated that the Malawi HIV and AIDS Policy had a relatively high coverage of Core Concepts of human rights and Vulnerable Groups; although with some notable omissions. The analyses also found that reasonable steps were taken to engage and promote participation of vulnerable groups in the planning, development, implementation, monitoring and evaluation processes of the HIV and AIDS Policy, although again, with some notable exceptions. This is the first study to use both EquiFrame and EquIPP as complimentary tools to assess the content and process of policy. Conclusion: While the findings indicate inclusive processes, commitment to Core Concepts of human rights and inclusion of Vulnerable Groups in relation to the Malawi HIV and AIDS Policy, the results also point to areas in which social inclusion and equity could be further strengthened. PMID:29626397

Assessment of vulnerability to future marine processes of urbanized coastal environments by a GIS-based approach: expected scenario in the metropolitan area of Bari (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mancini, F.; Ceppi, C.; Christopulos, V.

2013-12-01

Literature concerning the risk assessment procedures after extreme meteorological events is generally focused on the establishing of relationship between actual severe weather conditions and impact detected over the involved zones. Such an events are classified on the basis of measurements and observation able to assess the magnitude of phenomena or on the basis of related effects on the affected area, the latter being deeply connected with the overall physical vulnerability. However such assessment almost never do consider scenario about expected extreme event and possible pattern of urbanization at the time of impact and nor the spatial and temporal uncertainty of phenomena are taken into account. The drawn of future scenario about coastal vulnerability to marine processes is therefore difficult. This work focuses the study case of the Metropoli Terra di Bari (metropolitan area of Bari, Apulia, Italy) where a coastal vulnerability analysis due to climate changes expected on the basis of expert opinions coming from the scientific community was carried out. Several possible impacts on the coastal environments were considered, in particular sea level rise inundation, flooding due to storm surge and coastal erosion. For such a purpose the methodology base on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) produced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) was adopted after a regionalization procedure as carried out by Verburgh and others (2006) at the European scale. The open source software SLEUTH, base on the cellular automate principle, was used and the reliability of obtained scenario verified through the Monte Carlo method. Once these scenario were produced, a GIS-based multicriteria methodology was implemented to evaluate the vulnerability of the urbanized coastal area of interest. Several vulnerability maps related are therefore available for different scenario able to consider the degree of hazards and potential development of the typology and extent of urban settlements. The vulnerability assessments under different scenario could represent a suitable tool in the designing of risk mitigation strategies under uncertain scenario of hazard.

Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities

PubMed Central

McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J.; Ebi, Kristie L.

2015-01-01

Background: Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries—Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. Objective: We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. Methods: This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a “likelihood versus impact” matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. Results: The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Conclusion: Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate change, the health risks entailed, and the limited capacity of the countries to manage and adapt in the face of such risks. Citation: McIver L, Kim R, Woodward A, Hales S, Spickett J, Katscherian D, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Kim H, Iddings S, Naicker J, Bambrick H, McMichael AJ, Ebi KL. 2016. Health impacts of climate change in Pacific island countries: a regional assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptation priorities. Environ Health Perspect 124:1707–1714; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509756 PMID:26645102

Coastal vulnerability assessment using Fuzzy Logic and Bayesian Belief Network approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valentini, Emiliana; Nguyen Xuan, Alessandra; Filipponi, Federico; Taramelli, Andrea

2017-04-01

Natural hazards such as sea surge are threatening low-lying coastal plains. In order to deal with disturbances a deeper understanding of benefits deriving from ecosystem services assessment, management and planning can contribute to enhance the resilience of coastal systems. In this frame assessing current and future vulnerability is a key concern of many Systems Of Systems SOS (social, ecological, institutional) that deals with several challenges like the definition of Essential Variables (EVs) able to synthesize the required information, the assignment of different weight to be attributed to each considered variable, the selection of method for combining the relevant variables. It is widely recognized that ecosystems contribute to human wellbeing and then their conservation increases the resilience capacities and could play a key role in reducing climate related risk and thus physical and economic losses. A way to fully exploit ecosystems potential, i.e. their so called ecopotential (see H2020 EU funded project "ECOPOTENTIAL"), is the Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA): the use of ecosystem services as part of an adaptation strategy. In order to provide insight in understanding regulating ecosystem services to surge and which variables influence them and to make the best use of available data and information (EO products, in situ data and modelling), we propose a multi-component surge vulnerability assessment, focusing on coastal sandy dunes as natural barriers. The aim is to combine together eco-geomorphological and socio-economic variables with the hazard component on the base of different approaches: 1) Fuzzy Logic; 2) Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). The Fuzzy Logic approach is very useful to get a spatialized information and it can easily combine variables coming from different sources. It provides information on vulnerability moving along-shore and across-shore (beach-dune transect), highlighting the variability of vulnerability conditions in the spatial dimension. According to the results using fuzzy operators, the analysis greatest weakness is the limited capacity to represent the relation among the different considered variables. The BBN approach, based on the definition of conditional probabilities, has allowed determining the trend of distributions of vulnerability along-shore, highlighting which parts of the coast are most likely to have higher or lower vulnerability than others. In BBN analysis, the greatest weakness emerge in the case of arbitrary definition of conditional probabilities (i.e. when there is a lack of information on the past hazardous events) because it is not possible to derive the individual contribution of each variable. As conclusion, the two approaches could be used together in the perspective of enhancing the multiple components in vulnerability assessment: the BBN as a preliminary assessment to provide a coarse description of the vulnerability distribution, and the Fuzzy Logic as an extended assessment to provide more space based information.

Relationship between Community Collectivization and Financial Vulnerability of Female Sex Workers in Southern India

PubMed Central

Patel, Sangram Kishor; Prabhakar, Parimi; Jain, Anrudh Kumar; Saggurti, Niranjan; Adhikary, Rajatashuvra

2016-01-01

Introduction Studies exploring the linkages between financial vulnerabilities and community collectivization of female sex workers (FSWs) are scarce in India despite having potential policy implications. To fill this gap in the literature, this study attempts to understand the financial vulnerabilities among FSWs and assess the relationship between community collectivization and financial vulnerabilities in southern India. Data and Methods Data were drawn from a cross-sectional, behavioral tracking survey (BTS)—2014, conducted among FSWs (N = 2400) in Andhra Pradesh, a southern state of India under the Avahan-India AIDS initiative program. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated through multivariate logistic regression, to assess the independent relationships of the degree of community collectivization indicators with financial vulnerability indicators, adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics. Results Most FSWs (87%) reported having either one or more financial vulnerability and nearly one-fifth had a high financial vulnerability. The risk of facing financial vulnerability was significantly lower among FSWs with a high degree of perceived collective efficacy (15% vs 31%; AOR: 0.4; 95% CI: 0.3–0.5) and collective agency (4% vs 21%; AOR: 0.2; 95% CI: 0.1–0.3) as compared to their respective counterparts, after controlling for their individual socio-demographic characteristics. FSWs with a high degree of collective efficacy are also less likely to report different components of financial vulnerability (e.g. income, saving, expenditure, and debt). Conclusion This study finding suggests that community-led interventions such as improving collectivization are promising strategies to address financial vulnerabilities and a path to a sustainable reduction of HIV risk. This study calls for further evidence-based research and measurement of the effects of community-led approaches in addressing the financial vulnerabilities of the key population at risk for HIV. PMID:27227998

6 CFR 27.210 - Submissions schedule.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... in any subsequent Federal Register notice. (2) Security Vulnerability Assessment. Unless otherwise notified, a covered facility must complete and submit a Security Vulnerability Assessment within 90... Department's approval of the facility's Site Security Plan. (2) Security Vulnerability Assessment. Unless...

Vulnerability assessment and risk perception: the case of the Arieş River Middle Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozunu, Al.; Botezan, C.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment is influenced by a number of factors, including risk perception. This paper investigates the vulnerability of people living in the middle basin of the Aries river region, a former mining area, to natural and technologic hazards. The mining industry lead to significant environmental changes, which combined with the social problems caused by its decline (high unemployment rate, low income and old age) raised the level of the vulnerability in the area. This case study is unique, as it includes an evaluation of risk perception and its influence on the social vulnerability and resilience of local communities to disasters. Key words: vulnerability assessment, natural hazards, social vulnerability, risk perception

Policies on Protecting Vulnerable People During Disasters in Iran: A Document Analysis

PubMed Central

Abbasi Dolatabadi, Zahra; Seyedin, Hesam; Aryankhesal, Aidin

2016-01-01

Context Developing official protection policies for disasters is a main strategy in protecting vulnerable people. The aim of this study was to analyze official documents concerning policies on protecting vulnerable people during disasters. Evidence Acquisition This study was conducted by the qualitative document analysis method. Documents were gathered by searching websites and referring to the organizations involved in disaster management. The documents were assessed by a researcher-made data collection form. A directed content analysis approach was used to analyze the retrieved documents regarding the protection policies and legislation for vulnerable people. Results A total of 22 documents were included in the final analysis. Most of the documents referred to women, children, elderly people, poor, and villagers as vulnerable people. Moreover, the documents did not provide information regarding official measures for protecting vulnerable people during different phases of disaster management. Conclusions A clear and comprehensive definition of “vulnerable people” and formulation of official policies to protect them is needs to be formulated. Given the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, policy makers need to develop effective context-based policies to protect vulnerable people during disasters. PMID:27921019

Index-based groundwater vulnerability mapping models using hydrogeological settings: A critical evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar, Prashant, E-mail: prashantkumar@csio.res.in; Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research—CSIO, Chandigarh 160030; Bansod, Baban K.S.

2015-02-15

Groundwater vulnerability maps are useful for decision making in land use planning and water resource management. This paper reviews the various groundwater vulnerability assessment models developed across the world. Each model has been evaluated in terms of its pros and cons and the environmental conditions of its application. The paper further discusses the validation techniques used for the generated vulnerability maps by various models. Implicit challenges associated with the development of the groundwater vulnerability assessment models have also been identified with scientific considerations to the parameter relations and their selections. - Highlights: • Various index-based groundwater vulnerability assessment models havemore » been discussed. • A comparative analysis of the models and its applicability in different hydrogeological settings has been discussed. • Research problems of underlying vulnerability assessment models are also reported in this review paper.« less

6 CFR 27.225 - Site security plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... meet the following standards: (1) Address each vulnerability identified in the facility's Security Vulnerability Assessment, and identify and describe the security measures to address each such vulnerability; (2... updates, revises or otherwise alters its Security Vulnerability Assessment pursuant to § 27.215(d), the...

The usefulness of optical analyses for detecting vulnerable plaques using rabbit models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakai, Kanji; Ishihara, Miya; Kawauchi, Satoko; Shiomi, Masashi; Kikuchi, Makoto; Kaji, Tatsumi

2011-03-01

Purpose: Carotid artery stenting (CAS) has become a widely used option for treatment of carotid stenosis. Although technical improvements have led to a decrease in complications related to CAS, distal embolism continues to be a problem. The purpose of this research was to investigate the usefulness of optical methods (Time-Resolved Laser- Induced Fluorescence Spectroscopy [TR-LIFS] and reflection spectroscopy [RS] as diagnostic tools for assessment of vulnerable atherosclerotic lesions, using rabbit models of vulnerable plaque. Materials & Methods: Male Japanese white rabbits were divided into a high cholesterol diet group and a normal diet group. In addition, we used a Watanabe heritable hyperlipidemic (WHHL) rabbit, because we confirmed the reliability of our animal model for this study. Experiment 1: TR-LIFS. Fluorescence was induced using the third harmonic wave of a Q switch Nd:YAG laser. The TR-LIFS was performed using a photonic multi-channel analyzer with ICCD (wavelength range, 200 - 860 nm). Experiment 2: RS. Refection spectra in the wavelength range of 900 to 1700 nm were acquired using a spectrometer. Results: In the TR-LIFS, the wavelength at the peak was longer by plaque formation. The TR-LIFS method revealed a difference in peak levels between a normal aorta and a lipid-rich aorta. The RS method showed increased absorption from 1450 to 1500 nm for lipid-rich plaques. We observed absorption around 1200 nm due to lipid only in the WHHL group. Conclusion: These methods using optical analysis might be useful for diagnosis of vulnerable plaques. Keywords: Carotid artery stenting, vulnerable plaque, Time-Resolved Laser-Induced Fluorescence

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments.

PubMed

Rempel, Robert S; Hornseth, Megan L

2017-01-01

Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.

Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species. PMID:28225817

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles;

An Integrated Approach for Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Düzgün, H. S.; Yücemen, M. S.; Kalaycioglu, H. S.

2009-04-01

The earthquake risk for an urban area has increased over the years due to the increasing complexities in urban environments. The main reasons are the location of major cities in hazard prone areas, growth in urbanization and population and rising wealth measures. In recent years physical examples of these factors are observed through the growing costs of major disasters in urban areas which have stimulated a demand for in-depth evaluation of possible strategies to manage the large scale damaging effects of earthquakes. Understanding and formulation of urban earthquake risk requires consideration of a wide range of risk aspects, which can be handled by developing an integrated approach. In such an integrated approach, an interdisciplinary view should be incorporated into the risk assessment. Risk assessment for an urban area requires prediction of vulnerabilities related to elements at risk in the urban area and integration of individual vulnerability assessments. However, due to complex nature of an urban environment, estimating vulnerabilities and integrating them necessities development of integrated approaches in which vulnerabilities of social, economical, structural (building stock and infrastructure), cultural and historical heritage are estimated for a given urban area over a given time period. In this study an integrated urban earthquake vulnerability assessment framework, which considers vulnerability of urban environment in a holistic manner and performs the vulnerability assessment for the smallest administrative unit, namely at neighborhood scale, is proposed. The main motivation behind this approach is the inability to implement existing vulnerability assessment methodologies for countries like Turkey, where the required data are usually missing or inadequate and decision makers seek for prioritization of their limited resources in risk reduction in the administrative districts from which they are responsible. The methodology integrates socio-economical, structural, coastal, ground condition, organizational vulnerabilities, as well as accessibility to critical services within the framework. The proposed framework has the following eight components: Seismic hazard analysis, soil response analysis, tsunami inundation analysis, structural vulnerability analysis, socio-economic vulnerability analysis, accessibility to critical services, GIS-based integrated vulnerability assessment, and visualization of vulnerabilities in 3D virtual city model The integrated model for various vulnerabilities obtained for the urban area is developed in GIS environment by using individual vulnerability assessments for considered elements at risk and serve for establishing the backbone of the spatial decision support system. The stages followed in the model are: Determination of a common mapping unit for each aspect of urban earthquake vulnerability, formation of a geo-database for the vulnerabilities, evaluation of urban vulnerability based on multi attribute utility theory with various weighting algorithms, mapping of the evaluated integrated earthquake risk in geographic information systems (GIS) in the neighborhood scale. The framework is also applicable to larger geographical mapping scales, for example, the building scale. When illustrating the results in building scale, 3-D visualizations with remote sensing data is used so that decision-makers can easily interpret the outputs. The proposed vulnerability assessment framework is flexible and can easily be applied to urban environments at various geographical scales with different mapping units. The obtained total vulnerability maps for the urban area provide a baseline for the development of risk reduction strategies for the decision makers. Moreover, as several aspects of elements at risk for an urban area is considered through vulnerability analyses, effect on changes in vulnerability conditions on the total can easily be determined. The developed approach also enables decision makers to monitor temporal and spatial changes in the urban environment due to implementation of risk reduction strategies.

Exploring spatial patterns of vulnerability for diverse biodiversity descriptors in regional conservation planning.

PubMed

Vimal, Ruppert; Pluvinet, Pascal; Sacca, Céline; Mazagol, Pierre-Olivier; Etlicher, Bernard; Thompson, John D

2012-03-01

In this study, we developed a multi-criteria assessment of spatial variability of the vulnerability of three different biodiversity descriptors: sites of high conservation interest by virtue of the presence of rare or remarkable species, extensive areas of high ecological integrity, and landscape diversity in grid cells across an entire region. We assessed vulnerability in relation to (a) direct threats in and around sites to a distance of 2 km associated with intensive agriculture, building and road infrastructure and (b) indirect effects of human population density on a wider scale (50 km). The different combinations of biodiversity and threat indicators allowed us to set differential priorities for biodiversity conservation and assess their spatial variation. For example, with this method we identified sites and grid cells which combined high biodiversity with either high threat values or low threat values for the three different biodiversity indicators. In these two classes the priorities for conservation planning will be different, reduce threat values in the former and restrain any increase in the latter. We also identified low priority sites (low biodiversity with either high or low threats). This procedure thus allows for the integration of a spatial ranking of vulnerability into priority setting for regional conservation planning. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coastal erosion risk assessment using natural and human factors in different scales.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandrakis, George; Kampanis, Nikolaos

2015-04-01

Climate change, including sea-level rise and increasing storms, raise the threats of coastal erosion. Mitigating and adapting to coastal erosion risks in areas of human interest, like urban areas, culture heritage sites, and areas of economic interest, present a major challenge for society. In this context, decision making needs to be based in reliable risk assessment that includes environmental, social and economic factors. By integrating coastal hazard and risk assessments maps into coastal management plans, risks in areas of interest can be reduced. To address this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and socioeconomic importance need to be identified. A holistic risk assessment based in environmental, socioeconomic and economics approach can provide managers information how to mitigate the impact of coastal erosion and plan protection measures. Such an approach needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which interactions can be better assessed when distributed and analysed along the geographical space. In this work, estimations of climate change impact to coastline are based on a combination of environmental and economic data analysed in a GIS database. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The vulnerability assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this econometric modelling, Beach Value is related with economic and environmental attributes of the beach. All calculations are implemented in a GIS database, organised in five levels. In the first level the gathering of raw data is been made. In the second level data are organized in different scales. Third level, concerns the generating of new thematic data for further use. Risk assessment analysis and cost benefit analysis for protection measures is been made in level four. In the fifth level the results are transformed in user friendly form to be used by coastal managers. As case study area for the application of the method is selected Crete Island, while for the small scale the city of Rethymnon, which at the regional vulnerability analysis was found as high vulnerable. In the small scale vulnerability analysis, the sectors of the beach which are most vulnerable were identified, and risk analysis was made based on the revenue losses. Acknowledgments This work was implemented within the framework of the Action «Supporting Postdoctoral Researchers» of the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" (Action's Beneficiary: General Secretariat for Research and Technology), and is co-financed by the European Social Fund (ESF) and the Greek State.

Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sofaer, Helen R.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Flather, Curtis H.

2018-01-01

AimConservation planning requires the prioritization of a subset of taxa and geographical locations to focus monitoring and management efforts. Integration of the threats and opportunities posed by climate change often relies on predictions from species distribution models, particularly for assessments of vulnerability or invasion risk for multiple taxa. We evaluated whether species distribution models could reliably rank changes in species range size under climate and land use change.LocationConterminous U.S.A.Time period1977–2014.Major taxa studiedPasserine birds.MethodsWe estimated ensembles of species distribution models based on historical North American Breeding Bird Survey occurrences for 190 songbirds, and generated predictions to recent years given c. 35 years of observed land use and climate change. We evaluated model predictions using standard metrics of discrimination performance and a more detailed assessment of the ability of models to rank species vulnerability to climate change based on predicted range loss, range gain, and overall change in range size.ResultsSpecies distribution models yielded unreliable and misleading assessments of relative vulnerability to climate and land use change. Models could not accurately predict range expansion or contraction, and therefore failed to anticipate patterns of range change among species. These failures occurred despite excellent overall discrimination ability and transferability to the validation time period, which reflected strong performance at the majority of locations that were either always or never occupied by each species.Main conclusionsModels failed for the questions and at the locations of greatest interest to conservation and management. This highlights potential pitfalls of multi-taxa impact assessments under global change; in our case, models provided misleading rankings of the most impacted species, and spatial information about range changes was not credible. As modelling methods and frameworks continue to be refined, performance assessments and validation efforts should focus on the measures of risk and vulnerability useful for decision-making.

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability using supervised committee to combine fuzzy logic models.

PubMed

Nadiri, Ata Allah; Gharekhani, Maryam; Khatibi, Rahman; Moghaddam, Asghar Asghari

2017-03-01

Vulnerability indices of an aquifer assessed by different fuzzy logic (FL) models often give rise to differing values with no theoretical or empirical basis to establish a validated baseline or to develop a comparison basis between the modeling results and baselines, if any. Therefore, this research presents a supervised committee fuzzy logic (SCFL) method, which uses artificial neural networks to overarch and combine a selection of FL models. The indices are expressed by the widely used DRASTIC framework, which include geological, hydrological, and hydrogeological parameters often subject to uncertainty. DRASTIC indices represent collectively intrinsic (or natural) vulnerability and give a sense of contaminants, such as nitrate-N, percolating to aquifers from the surface. The study area is an aquifer in Ardabil plain, the province of Ardabil, northwest Iran. Improvements on vulnerability indices are achieved by FL techniques, which comprise Sugeno fuzzy logic (SFL), Mamdani fuzzy logic (MFL), and Larsen fuzzy logic (LFL). As the correlation between estimated DRASTIC vulnerability index values and nitrate-N values is as low as 0.4, it is improved significantly by FL models (SFL, MFL, and LFL), which perform in similar ways but have differences. Their synergy is exploited by SCFL and uses the FL modeling results "conditioned" by nitrate-N values to raise their correlation to higher than 0.9.

[Research advances in vulnerability assessment of natural ecosystem response to climate change].

PubMed

Zhao, Hui-xia; Wu, Shao-hong; Jiang, Lu-guang

2007-02-01

Climate change with global warming as the sign has been caught great attention by the governments, international organizations, and scientists in the world. Human society and natural ecosystem are both exposed to climate change, and more and more people are waked up by its increasing harm. Vulnerability analysis and assessment are the key and basis for adapting and mitigating climate change, being the highlight in the research fields of climate change and ecology in recent years. The vulnerability assessment of climate change is being carried out in various research fields and on different scales, and much progress has been made. This paper introduced the concept of vulnerability, and summarized the research progress in vulnerability assessment of climate change, with the focus on the frame and methodology of vulnerability assessment of natural ecosystem response to climate change. The existed problems and future prospects in this research area were also discussed.

Tsunami vulnerability assessment in the western coastal belt in Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranagalage, M. M.

2017-12-01

26th December 2004 tsunami disaster has caused massive loss of life, damage to coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activities in the coastal belt of Sri Lanka. Tsunami vulnerability assessment is a requirement for disaster risk and vulnerability reduction. It plays a major role in identifying the extent and level of vulnerabilities to disasters within the communities. There is a need for a clearer understanding of the disaster risk patterns and factors contributing to it in different parts of the coastal belt. The main objective of this study is to investigate tsunami vulnerability assessment of Moratuwa Municipal council area in Sri Lanka. We have selected Moratuwa area due to considering urbanization pattern and Tsunami hazards of the country. Different data sets such as one-meter resolution LiDAR data, orthophoto, population, housing data and road layer were employed in this study. We employed tsunami vulnerability model for 1796 housing units located there, for a tsunami scenario with a maximum run-up 8 meters. 86% of the total land area affected by the tsunami in 8 meters scenarios. Additionally, building population has been used to estimate population in different vulnerability levels. The result shows that 32% of the buildings have extremely critical vulnerability level, 46% have critical vulnerability level, 22% have high vulnerability level, and 1% have a moderate vulnerability. According to the population estimation model results, 18% reside building with extremely critical vulnerability, 43% with critical vulnerability, 36% with high vulnerability and 3% belong to moderate vulnerability level. The results of the study provide a clear picture of tsunami vulnerability. Outcomes of this analysis can use as a valuable tool for urban planners to assess the risk and extent of disaster risk reduction which could be achieved via suitable mitigation measures to manage the coastal belt in Sri Lanka.

Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Costanza, Jennifer; Beck, Scott; Pyne, Milo; Terando, Adam; Rubino, Matthew J.; White, Rickie; Collazo, Jaime

2016-08-11

Climate change impacts ecosystems in many ways, from effects on species to phenology to wildfire dynamics. Assessing the potential vulnerability of ecosystems to future changes in climate is an important first step in prioritizing and planning for conservation. Although assessments of climate change vulnerability commonly are done for species, fewer have been done for ecosystems. To aid regional conservation planning efforts, we assessed climate change vulnerability for ecosystems in the Southeastern United States and Caribbean.First, we solicited input from experts to create a list of candidate ecosystems for assessment. From that list, 12 ecosystems were selected for a vulnerability assessment that was based on a synthesis of available geographic information system (GIS) data and literature related to 3 components of vulnerability—sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. This literature and data synthesis comprised “Phase I” of the assessment. Sensitivity is the degree to which the species or processes in the ecosystem are affected by climate. Exposure is the likely future change in important climate and sea level variables. Adaptive capacity is the degree to which ecosystems can adjust to changing conditions. Where available, GIS data relevant to each of these components were used. For example, we summarized observed and projected climate, protected areas existing in 2011, projected sea-level rise, and projected urbanization across each ecosystem’s distribution. These summaries were supplemented with information in the literature, and a short narrative assessment was compiled for each ecosystem. We also summarized all information into a qualitative vulnerability rating for each ecosystem.Next, for 2 of the 12 ecosystems (East Gulf Coastal Plain Near-Coast Pine Flatwoods and Nashville Basin Limestone Glade and Woodland), the NatureServe Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index (HCCVI) framework was used as an alternative approach for assessing vulnerability. Use of the HCCVI approach comprised “Phase II” of the assessment. This approach uses summaries of GIS data and models to develop a series of numeric indices for components of vulnerability. We incorporated many of the data sources used in Phase I, but added the results of several other data sources, including climate envelope modeling and vegetation dynamics modeling. The results of Phase II were high and low numeric vulnerability ratings for mid-century and the end of century for each ecosystem. The high and low ratings represented the potential range of vulnerability scores owing to uncertainties in future climate conditions and ecosystem effects.Of the 12 ecosystems assessed in the first approach, five were rated as having high vulnerability (Caribbean Coastal Mangrove, Caribbean Montane Wet Elfin Forest, East Gulf Coastal Plain Southern Loess Bluff Forest, Edwards Plateau Limestone Shrubland, and Nashville Basin Limestone Glade and Woodland). Six ecosystems had medium vulnerability, and one ecosystem had low vulnerability. For the two ecosystems assessed with both approaches, vulnerability ratings generally agreed. The assessment concluded by comparing the two approaches, identifying critical research needs, and making suggestions for future ecosystem vulnerability assessments in the Southeast and beyond. Research needs include reducing uncertainty in the degree of climate exposure likely in the future, as well as acquiring more information on how climate might affect biotic interactions and hydrologic processes. Ideally, a comprehensive vulnerability assessment would include both the narrative summaries that resulted from the synthesis in Phase I, as well as a numeric index that incorporates uncertainty as in Phase II.

The need for comprehensive vulnerability approaches to mirror the multiplicity in mountain hazard risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keiler, Margreth; Fuchs, Sven

2014-05-01

The concept of vulnerability is pillared by multiple disciplinary theories underpinning either a technical or a social origin of the concept and resulting in a range of paradigms for vulnerability quantification. By taking a natural scientific approach we argue that a large number of studies have focused either on damage-loss functions for individual mountain hazards or on semi-quantitative indicator-based approaches for multiple hazards (hazard chains). However, efforts to reduce susceptibility to hazards and to create disaster-resilient communities require intersections among these approaches, as well as among theories originating in natural and social sciences, since human activity cannot be seen independently from the environmental setting. Acknowledging different roots of disciplinary paradigms in risk management, issues determining structural, economic, institutional and social vulnerability have to be more comprehensively addressed in the future with respect to mountain hazards in Europe and beyond. It is argued that structural vulnerability as originator results in considerable economic vulnerability, generated by the institutional settings of dealing with natural hazards and shaped by the overall societal framework. If vulnerability and its counterpart, resilience, is analysed and evaluated by using such a comprehensive approach, a better understanding of the vulnerability-influencing parameters could be achieved, taking into account the interdependencies and interactions between the disciplinary foci. As a result, three key issues should be addressed in future research: (1) Vulnerability requires a new perspective on the relationship between society and environment: not as a duality, but more as a mutually constitutive relationship (including methods for assessment). (2) There is a need for concepts of vulnerability that emphasise the dynamics of temporal and spatial scales, particularly with respect to Global Change processes in mountain regions. (3) Loss and damage is part of a process in which interactions of climate change with societal processes shape and transform human societies. They are part of the human-environment interaction that needs assessment and adaptation.

A new GIS-based tsunami risk evaluation: MeTHuVA (METU tsunami human vulnerability assessment) at Yenikapı, Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cankaya, Zeynep Ceren; Suzen, Mehmet Lutfi; Yalciner, Ahmet Cevdet; Kolat, Cagil; Zaytsev, Andrey; Aytore, Betul

2016-07-01

Istanbul is a mega city with various coastal utilities located on the northern coast of the Sea of Marmara. At Yenikapı, there are critical vulnerable coastal utilities, structures, and active metropolitan life. Fishery ports, commercial ports, small craft harbors, passenger terminals of intercity maritime transportation, waterfront commercial and/or recreational structures with residential/commercial areas and public utility areas are some examples of coastal utilization that are vulnerable to marine disasters. Therefore, the tsunami risk in the Yenikapı region is an important issue for Istanbul. In this study, a new methodology for tsunami vulnerability assessment for areas susceptible to tsunami is proposed, in which the Yenikapı region is chosen as a case study. Available datasets from the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and Turkish Navy are used as inputs for high-resolution GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) evaluation of tsunami risk in Yenikapı. Bathymetry and topography database is used for high-resolution tsunami numerical modeling where the tsunami hazard, in terms of coastal inundation, is deterministically computed using the NAMI DANCE numerical code, considering earthquake worst case scenarios. In order to define the tsunami human vulnerability of the region, two different aspects, vulnerability at location and evacuation resilience maps were created using the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) method of MCDA. A vulnerability at location map is composed of metropolitan use, geology, elevation, and distance from shoreline layers, whereas an evacuation resilience map is formed by slope, distance within flat areas, distance to buildings, and distance to road networks layers. The tsunami risk map is then computed by the proposed new relationship which uses flow depth maps, vulnerability at location maps, and evacuation resilience maps.

Assessment of Yellow Fever Epidemic Risk: An Original Multi-criteria Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Briand, Sylvie; Beresniak, Ariel; Nguyen, Tim; Yonli, Tajoua; Duru, Gerard; Kambire, Chantal; Perea, William

2009-01-01

Background Yellow fever (YF) virtually disappeared in francophone West African countries as a result of YF mass vaccination campaigns carried out between 1940 and 1953. However, because of the failure to continue mass vaccination campaigns, a resurgence of the deadly disease in many African countries began in the early 1980s. We developed an original modeling approach to assess YF epidemic risk (vulnerability) and to prioritize the populations to be vaccinated. Methods and Findings We chose a two-step assessment of vulnerability at district level consisting of a quantitative and qualitative assessment per country. Quantitative assessment starts with data collection on six risk factors: five risk factors associated with “exposure” to virus/vector and one with “susceptibility” of a district to YF epidemics. The multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) modeling method was specifically adapted to reduce the five exposure variables to one aggregated exposure indicator. Health districts were then projected onto a two-dimensional graph to define different levels of vulnerability. Districts are presented on risk maps for qualitative analysis in consensus groups, allowing the addition of factors, such as population migrations or vector density, that could not be included in MCA. The example of rural districts in Burkina Faso show five distinct clusters of risk profiles. Based on this assessment, 32 of 55 districts comprising over 7 million people were prioritized for preventive vaccination campaigns. Conclusion This assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk at the district level includes MCA modeling and consensus group modification. MCA provides a standardized way to reduce complexity. It supports an informed public health decision-making process that empowers local stakeholders through the consensus group. This original approach can be applied to any disease with documented risk factors. PMID:19597548

Population vulnerability to storm surge flooding in coastal Virginia, USA.

PubMed

Liu, Hua; Behr, Joshua G; Diaz, Rafael

2016-07-01

This study aims to assess the vulnerability of populations to storm surge flooding in 12 coastal localities of Virginia, USA. Population vulnerability is assessed by way of 3 physical factors (elevation, slope, and storm surge category), 3 built-up components (road availability, access to hospitals, and access to shelters), and 3 household conditions (storm preparedness, financial constraints to recovering from severe weather events, and health fragility). Fuzzy analysis is used to generate maps illustrating variation in several types of population vulnerability across the region. When considering physical factors and household conditions, the most vulnerable neighborhoods to sea level rise and storm surge flooding are largely found in urban areas. However, when considering access to critical infrastructure, we find rural residents to be more vulnerable than nonrural residents. These detailed assessments can inform both local and state governments in catastrophic planning. In addition, the methodology may be generalized to assess vulnerability in other coastal corridors and communities. The originality is highlighted by evaluating socioeconomic conditions at refined scale, incorporating a broader range of human perceptions and predispositions, and employing a geoinformatics approach combining physical, built-up, and socioeconomic conditions for population vulnerability assessment. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:500-509. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

Fuzzy Decision Analysis for Integrated Environmental Vulnerability Assessment of the Mid-Atlantic Region

Treesearch

Liem T. Tran; C. Gregory Knight; Robert V. O' Neill; Elizabeth R. Smith; Kurt H. Riitters; James D. Wickham

2002-01-01

A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators was developed. This was a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The method was capable of ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumulative impacts across a large region. Using data on land cover, population, roads, streams,...

Vulnerabilities to climate change of Massachusetts animal species of greatest conservation need

USGS Publications Warehouse

Galbraith, Hector; Morelli, Toni L.

2017-01-01

Over the last decade, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts has addressed the potential and actual impacts of climate change on state flora and fauna. The state’s involvement began in 2007 when, led by the Division of Fisheries and Wildlife (DFW) and assisted by Manomet Center for Con-servation Research, it carried out one of the first habitat vulnerability assessments in North America (Manomet, 2010). The new methods and processes that resulted were later applied to vulnerability assessments in North America and elsewhere. In 2011, the state assisted the North-eastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (NEAFWA) in organizing and leading a pio-neering three-year, thirteen-state research effort to evaluate the vulnerabilities of fish and wild-life habitats to climate change in the northeast, from Maine south to West Virginia (NEAFWA, 2012). This focus on climate change vulnerabilities led to three important early realizations: (1) simply categorizing and scoring vulnerabilities might not lead to better conservation outcomes. It was vital to also understand why some resources were more or less vulnerable to climate change in order to identify potential intervention points on which conservation actions and strategies could be based. (2) simply producing research results was not enough; these results had to be cast as specific conservation actions. Moreover (3), these actions needed to be communicated in a useful form to conservation “actors”, such as state agencies, land trusts, land managers, etc. These real-izations led to the next step on the Commonwealth’s journey to effective conservation in an age of climate change - the Massachusetts Wildlife Climate Action Tool (CAT).

GUIDELINES TO ASSESSING REGIONAL VULNERABILITIES

EPA Science Inventory

Decision-makers today face increasingly complex environmental problems that require integrative and innovative approaches for analyzing, modeling, and interpreting various types of information. ReVA acknowledges this need and is designed to evaluate methods and models for synthe...

Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirwan, Matthew L.; Temmerman, Stijn; Skeehan, Emily E.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2016-01-01

Coastal marshes are considered to be among the most valuable and vulnerable ecosystems on Earth, where the imminent loss of ecosystem services is a feared consequence of sea level rise. However, we show with a meta-analysis that global measurements of marsh elevation change indicate that marshes are generally building at rates similar to or exceeding historical sea level rise, and that process-based models predict survival under a wide range of future sea level scenarios. We argue that marsh vulnerability tends to be overstated because assessment methods often fail to consider biophysical feedback processes known to accelerate soil building with sea level rise, and the potential for marshes to migrate inland.

75 FR 46909 - Solicitation of Input From Stakeholders Regarding Assessments Focused on Improving Food Aid and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-04

... implemented in the field to benefit highly vulnerable populations, including recommendations on the most cost... Institute of Food and Agriculture, USDA. ACTION: Notice; request for public comment. SUMMARY: The National... Extension Service (CSREES) requests input from the public regarding (1) the assessment of methods and tools...

[Spatial patterns of eco-environmental vulnerability in Daqing City].

PubMed

Li, Jing; Zhang, Ping-Yu; Li, He; Su, Fei

2011-12-01

This paper established an index system for the assessment of eco-environmental vulnerability in Daqing City, from the aspects of sensitivity and response capability, and aiming at the major disturbances from crude oil exploitation and production activities. The improved entropy method was adopted to evaluate the weights of the indices, and the spatial patterns of eco-environment vulnerability in the City were analyzed, according to the model functions. In 2009, the more sensitive areas of the eco-environment in the City were mainly concentrated in the intensive regions of crude oil exploitation, processing, and petrochemical industry, and the ecological problems such as land salinization were the secondary causes for this higher sensitivity. The overall response capability of the eco-environment to unfavorable disturbances was relatively high, which reduced the eco-environment vulnerability to some extent. There was a great spatial difference in the eco-environment vulnerability in the City. The vulnerability was comparatively higher in the districts of Honggang, Sartu and Longfeng, with the degree being 0.80, 0.71 and 0.68, but lower in Ranghulu and Datong, with the degree of 0.20 and 0.04, respectively.

Simplified spacecraft vulnerability assessments at component level in early design phase at the European Space Agency's Concurrent Design Facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kempf, Scott; Schäfer, Frank K.; Cardone, Tiziana; Ferreira, Ivo; Gerené, Sam; Destefanis, Roberto; Grassi, Lilith

2016-12-01

During recent years, the state-of-the-art risk assessment of the threat posed to spacecraft by micrometeoroids and space debris has been expanded to the analysis of failure modes of internal spacecraft components. This method can now be used to perform risk analyses for satellites to assess various failure levels - from failure of specific sub-systems to catastrophic break-up. This new assessment methodology is based on triple-wall ballistic limit equations (BLEs), specifically the Schäfer-Ryan-Lambert (SRL) BLE, which is applicable for describing failure threshold levels for satellite components following a hypervelocity impact. The methodology is implemented in the form of the software tool Particle Impact Risk and vulnerability Analysis Tool (PIRAT). During a recent European Space Agency (ESA) funded study, the PIRAT functionality was expanded in order to provide an interface to ESA's Concurrent Design Facility (CDF). The additions include a geometry importer and an OCDT (Open Concurrent Design Tool) interface. The new interface provides both the expanded geometrical flexibility, which is provided by external computer aided design (CAD) modelling, and an ease of import of existing data without the need for extensive preparation of the model. The reduced effort required to perform vulnerability analyses makes it feasible for application during early design phase, at which point modifications to satellite design can be undertaken with relatively little extra effort. The integration of PIRAT in the CDF represents the first time that vulnerability analyses can be performed in-session in ESA's CDF and the first time that comprehensive vulnerability studies can be applied cost-effectively in early design phase in general.

Intrinsic and specific vulnerability of groundwater in central Spain: the risk of nitrate pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Bastida, Juan J.; Arauzo, Mercedes; Valladolid, Maria

2010-05-01

The intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater in the Comunidad de Madrid (central Spain) was evaluated using the DRASTIC and GOD indexes. Groundwater vulnerability to nitrate pollution was also assessed using the composite DRASTIC (CD) and nitrate vulnerability (NV) indexes. The utility of these methods was tested by analyzing the spatial distribution of nitrate concentrations in the different aquifers located in the study area: the Tertiary Detrital Aquifer, the Moor Limestone Aquifer, the Cretaceous Limestone Aquifer and the Quaternary Aquifer. Vulnerability maps based on these four indexes showed very similar results, identifying the Quaternary Aquifer and the lower sub-unit of the Moor Limestone Aquifer as deposits subjected to a high risk of nitrate pollution due to intensive agriculture. As far as the spatial distribution of groundwater nitrate concentrations is concerned, the NV index showed the greatest statistical significance ( p < 0.01). This new type of multiplicative model offers greater accuracy in estimations of specific vulnerability with respect to the real impact of each type of land use. The results of this study provide a basis on which to guide the designation of nitrate vulnerable zones in the Comunidad de Madrid, in line with European Union Directive 91/676/EEC.

Vulnerability of teleosts caught by the pelagic tuna longline fleets in South Atlantic and Western Indian Oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucena-Frédou, Flávia; Kell, Laurie; Frédou, Thierry; Gaertner, Daniel; Potier, Michel; Bach, Pascal; Travassos, Paulo; Hazin, Fábio; Ménard, Frédéric

2017-06-01

Productivity and Susceptibility Analysis (PSA) is a methodology for evaluating the vulnerability of a stock based on its biological productivity and susceptibility to fishing. In this study, we evaluated the vulnerability of 60 stocks of tuna, billfishes and other teleosts caught by the tuna longline fleets operating in the South Atlantic and Indian Ocean using a semi-quantitative PSA. We (a) evaluated the vulnerability of the species in the study areas; (b) compared the vulnerability of target and non-target species and oceans; (c) analyzed the sensitivity of data entry; and (d) compared the results of the PSA to other fully quantitative assessment methods. Istiophoridae exhibited the highest scores for vulnerability. The top 10 species at risk were: Atlantic Istiophorus albicans; Indian Ocean Istiompax indica; Atlantic Makaira nigricans and Thunnus alalunga; Indian Ocean Xiphias gladius; Atlantic T. albacares, Gempylus serpens, Ranzania laevis and X. gladius; and Indian Ocean T. alalunga. All species considered at high risk were targeted or were commercialized bycatch, except for the Atlantic G. serpens and R. laevis which were discarded, and may be considered as a false positive. Those species and others at high risk should be prioritized for further assessment and/or data collection. Most species at moderate risk were bycatch species kept for sale. Conversely, species classified at low risk were mostly discarded. Overall, species at high risk were overfished and/or subjected to overfishing. Moreover, all species considered to be within extinction risk (Critically Endangered, Endangered and Vulnerable) were in the high-risk category. The good concordance between approaches corroborates the results of our analysis. PSA is not a replacement for traditional stock assessments, where a stock is assessed at regular intervals to provide management advice. It is of importance, however, where there is uncertainty about catches and life history parameters, since it can identify species at risk, and where management action and data collection is required, e.g. for many species at high and most at moderate risk in the South Atlantic and Indian oceans.

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

Treesearch

Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

2016-01-01

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

Risk assessment by dynamic representation of vulnerability, exploitation, and impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cam, Hasan

2015-05-01

Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.

Indicator-based model to assess vulnerability to landslides in urban areas. Case study of Husi city (Eastern Romania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grozavu, Adrian; Ciprian Margarint, Mihai; Catalin Stanga, Iulian

2013-04-01

In the last three or four decades, vulnerability evolved from physical fragility meanings to a more complex concept, being a key element of risk assessment. In landslide risk assessment, there are a large series of studies regarding landslide hazard, but far fewer researches focusing on vulnerability measurement. Furthermore, there is still no unitary understanding on the methodological framework, neither any internationally agreed standard for landslide vulnerability measurements. The omnipresent common element is the existence of elements at risk, but while some approaches are limited to exposure, other focus on the degree of losses (human injuries, material damages and monetary losses, structural dysfunctions etc.). These losses are differently assessed using both absolute and relative values on qualitative or quantitative scales and they are differently integrated to provide a final vulnerability value. This study aims to assess vulnerability to landslides at local level using an indicator-based model applied to urban areas and tested for Husi town (Eastern Romania). The study region is characterized by permeable and impermeable alternating sedimentary rocks, monoclinal geological structure and hilly relief with impressive cuestas, continental temperate climate, and precipitation of about 500 mm/year, rising to 700 m and even more in some rainy years. The town is a middle size one (25000 inhabitants) and it had an ascending evolution in the last centuries, followed by an increasing human pressure on lands. Methodologically, the first step was to assess the landslide susceptibility and to identify in this way those regions within which any asset would be exposed to landslide hazards. Landslide susceptibility was assessed using the logistic regression approach, taking into account several quantitative and qualitative factors (elements of geology, morphometry, rainfall, land use etc.). The spatial background consisted in the Digital Elevation Model and all derived maps (slope, aspect, shading), realized based on the topographical plans and maps (1:1000, 1:5000). The second step was to realize the spatial inventory of elements at risk (vector format), based on the General Urban Plan (1:5000), the orthorectified aerial images (2009, resolution: 0.5 meters) and field investigations. All elements have been classified using attribute databases: residential buildings (single or multiple dwellings), other buildings according to their functionality, main and secondary roads, special transport network etc. Data about population have been added in order to assess the intrinsic value of each element and the number of potentially affected peoples. The study also took into account issues as preparedness and preventive measures (risk prevention plans, reinforcing structures, draining wells etc.), coping ability (network geometry and connectivity, emergency services accessibility) and recovering capacity (e.g. the existence of insurance policies). According to their importance and functionality, a distinct rank (ri … rn) was assigned to each element at risk (i1…in) showing the level of vulnerability. The rank values were assigned mainly on the expert knowledge and they range from 1 (limited damages, no affected people) to 5 (several households and people affected, dysfunctions in the urban system). The vulnerability index (Vi) was obtained combining the rank with the role of vulnerability factors (Fi), according to their degree of influence: the number of people that would be affected, the potential material and economic damages, the relationship with the neighboring exposed elements, the existence of the preventing, coping and recovering measures etc. Thus, the general equation of vulnerability has the form of weighted geometric mean: Vi=ri•Fi = ri•(w1F1 • w2F2 • … • wmFm). It must be noted that the weighting coefficients (wi) have subunitary or supraunitary value according to their role in diminishing or increasing the vulnerability level. The general vulnerability index (GVI) was obtained through a final transformation that was done to limit the spread of variation between zero (minimum vulnerability) and one (maximum vulnerability): GVIi = Vi/Vmax. In this form, the elements at risk are individually inventoried and spatialized in vector format as points, lines, polygons, each one having its own vulnerability value, but the results can be used only at the precise local level (both by practitioners and decision makers). To allow a more profound interpretation, the general vulnerability index was spatialized in two distinct ways: (1) creating a raster with a standard pixel size (e.g. 20 x 20 m, 50 x 50 m) and calculating the average vulnerability of the exposed elements in each pixel; (2) choosing a interpolation method (e.g. krigging) that would allow to integrate the spatial autocorrelation of the elements at risk and to obtain an output raster at the same resolution with the susceptibility map and a further risk assessment.

Assessment of Water Sustainability Index Using Reliability-Resilience-Vulnerability Criteria Considering Climatic Variation over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lakshmi, V.; Mondal, A.; Kundu, S.

2016-12-01

Abstract:Precipitation can be considered as a key factor in Water Resources Sustainability (WRS). In India, WRS varies with widely varying distribution of precipitation. The economy of the India is based on agricultural production which mainly depends on rainfall. The main focus of the paper is assessment of Water Sustainability based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method for evaluating drought and non-drought conditionsin India using a precipitation data of a long time period (1871-2014). The study area has been divided into thirty sub-regions on the basis homogeneity pattern of rainfall distribution. The performance criteria such as, Reliability, Resilience, Vulnerability and Relative Vulnerability (RV) have been applied in this study. The ranges of water sustainably (WS), vulnerability, relative vulnerability and drought resilience are 0.26 to 0.67, 0.52 to 1.06, 0.22 to 0.61 and 0.72 to 1 respectively. Specifically, WS of Gangetic West Bengal, Naga-Mani-Mizo-trip, Konkan-Goa, Chattisgarh and Kerala are less (0.26, 0.31, 0.35, 0.38 and 0.38 respectively) while Punjab, Marathwada, West Rajasthan and Vidarbha are more (0.57, 0.60, 0.67 and 0.57 respectively).Finally, WS and RV have shown negative correlation (R2=0.86) while WS and drought resilience have shown positive correlation (R2=0.60). The results have clearly illustrated a scenario of entire India, which can be helpful in agricultural management in future. Key Words: Sustainability, SPI, Reliability, Resilience, Vulnerability

Spatial screening methods for evaluating environmental contaminant hazards and exposure vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, D. K.

2016-12-01

Human and biotic communities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to sea-level rise and severe storms due to climate change. These events enhance the dispersion and concentration of natural and anthropogenic chemicals and pathogenic microorganisms, which could adversely impact the health and resilience of coastal communities and ecosystems in coming years. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed spatial screening methods to identify and map contaminant sources and potential exposure pathways for human and ecological receptors. These methods have been applied within the northeastern U.S. to document contaminants of emerging concern, highlight vulnerable communities, and prioritize locations for future sampling campaigns. Integration of this information provides a means to better assess the baseline status of a complex system and the significance of changes in contaminant hazards due to storm-induced (episodic) and sea-level rise (incremental) disturbances. This presentation will provide an overview of a decision support tool developed by the USGS to document contaminants in the environment relative to key receptor populations and historic storm vulnerabilities. The support tool is designed to accommodate a broad array of geologic, land-use, and climatic variables and utilizes public, nationally available data sources to define contaminant sources and storm vulnerabilities. By employing a flexible and adaptable strategy built upon publicly available data, the method can readily be applied to other site selection or landscape evaluation efforts. Examples will be presented including the Sediment-bound Contaminant Resiliency and Response pilot study (see http://toxics.usgs.gov/scorr/), and investigations of endocrine disruption in the Chesapeake Bay. Key limitations and future applications will be discussed in addition to ongoing method developments to accommodate non-coastal disaster scenarios and more refined contaminant definitions.

Multi-scale quantitative vulnerability assessment of buildings towards debris-flows: an application to Fella River Basin, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liliana Ciurean, Roxana; Hussin, Haydar; Glade, Thomas; van Westen, Cees; Papathoma-Köhle, Maria

2015-04-01

In physical vulnerability assessments, selection of working tools and methods is dependent not only on practical applications or decision question and data availability, but also on the scale of investigation. The aim of this study is to implement and compare two methodologies for assessing vulnerability of buildings in Fella River Basin (Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Italy). In this region, a major rainfall event in August 2003 triggered more than a thousand debris flows and floods resulting in two casualties. Damages to buildings, communication and transport infrastructure exceeded 400 million euros of monetary losses. The approaches considered are developed based on two methods of estimating debris-flow intensities: (1) for the regional and local scale, the behavior and run-out of the flow event was reconstructed using numerical debris flow modeling (Flow-R and Flow2D, respectively) to generate physical outputs (extension, depth, impact pressure, velocities) and determine the areas where elements at risk can be impacted; (2) for the local scale, a second method uses orthophoto documentation acquired shortly after the 2003 event for determining the location of the debris deposition and its depth at each impacted building. An extensive building inventory comprising information about the material of construction, occupancy type and use was compiled by desktop mapping and field work. The significance of the calculated intensity values were investigated in terms of resulting physical damages which were quantified for each affected structure as the ratio between the monetary loss and the reconstruction value. Different empirical vulnerability curves were obtained as functions of debris flow depth and impact pressure, respectively. The obtained curves were lastly compared with existing ones from the literature and sources of uncertainty from data input and the models employed were studied and discussed. The results of this study can be applied to further local consequence analysis and risk calculations, but can also been applied in other regions worldwide where respective data are available.

Let's Stop Trying to Quantify Household Vulnerability: The Problem With Simple Scales for Targeting and Evaluating Economic Strengthening Programs

PubMed Central

Moret, Whitney M

2018-01-01

Introduction: Economic strengthening practitioners are increasingly seeking data collection tools that will help them target households vulnerable to HIV and poor child well-being outcomes, match households to appropriate interventions, monitor their status, and determine readiness for graduation from project support. This article discusses efforts in 3 countries to develop simple, valid tools to quantify and classify economic vulnerability status. Methods and Findings: In Côte d'Ivoire, we conducted a cross-sectional survey with 3,749 households to develop a scale based on the definition of HIV-related economic vulnerability from the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) for the purpose of targeting vulnerable households for PEPFAR-funded programs for orphans and vulnerable children. The vulnerability measures examined did not cluster in ways that would allow for the creation of a small number of composite measures, and thus we were unable to develop a scale. In Uganda, we assessed the validity of a vulnerability index developed to classify households according to donor classifications of economic status by measuring its association with a validated poverty measure, finding only a modest correlation. In South Africa, we developed monitoring and evaluation tools to assess economic status of individual adolescent girls and their households. We found no significant correlation with our validation measures, which included a validated measure of girls' vulnerability to HIV, a validated poverty measure, and subjective classifications generated by the community, data collector, and respondent. Overall, none of the measures of economic vulnerability used in the 3 countries varied significantly with their proposed validation items. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that broad constructs of economic vulnerability cannot be readily captured using simple scales to classify households and individuals in a way that accounts for a substantial amount of variance at locally defined vulnerability levels. We recommend that researchers and implementers design monitoring and evaluation instruments to capture narrower definitions of vulnerability based on characteristics programs intend to affect. We also recommend using separate tools for targeting based on context-specific indicators with evidence-based links to negative outcomes. Policy makers and donors should avoid reliance on simplified metrics of economic vulnerability in the programs they support. PMID:29496734

Dynamics of leaf hydraulic conductance with water status: quantification and analysis of species differences under steady state

PubMed Central

Scoffoni, Christine; McKown, Athena D.; Rawls, Michael; Sack, Lawren

2012-01-01

Leaf hydraulic conductance (Kleaf) is a major determinant of photosynthetic rate in well-watered and drought-stressed plants. Previous work assessed the decline of Kleaf with decreasing leaf water potential (Ψleaf), most typically using rehydration kinetics methods, and found that species varied in the shape of their vulnerability curve, and that hydraulic vulnerability correlated with other leaf functional traits and with drought sensitivity. These findings were tested and extended, using a new steady-state evaporative flux method under high irradiance, and the function for the vulnerability curve of each species was determined individually using maximum likelihood for 10 species varying strongly in drought tolerance. Additionally, the ability of excised leaves to recover in Kleaf with rehydration was assessed, and a new theoretical framework was developed to estimate how rehydration of measured leaves may affect estimation of hydraulic parameters. As hypothesized, species differed in their vulnerability function. Drought-tolerant species showed shallow linear declines and more negative Ψleaf at 80% loss of Kleaf (P80), whereas drought-sensitive species showed steeper, non-linear declines, and less negative P80. Across species, the maximum Kleaf was independent of hydraulic vulnerability. Recovery of Kleaf after 1 h rehydration of leaves dehydrated below their turgor loss point occurred only for four of 10 species. Across species without recovery, a more negative P80 correlated with the ability to maintain Kleaf through both dehydration and rehydration. These findings indicate that resistance to Kleaf decline is important not only in maintaining open stomata during the onset of drought, but also in enabling sustained function during drought recovery. PMID:22016424

An assessment of the vulnerability of carotid plaques: a comparative study between intraplaque neovascularization and plaque echogenicity

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Carotid plaque echolucency as detected by Color Doppler ultrasonography (CDUS) has been used as a potential marker of plaque vulnerability. However, contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) has recently been shown to be a valuable method to evaluate the vulnerability and neovascularization within carotid atherosclerotic plaques. The aim of this study was to compare CEUS and CDUS in the assessment of plaque vulnerability using transcranial color Doppler (TCD) monitoring of microembolic signals (MES) as a reference technique. Methods A total of 46 subjects with arterial stenosis (≥ 50%) underwent a carotid duplex ultrasound, TCD monitoring of MES and CEUS (SonoVue doses of 2.0 mL) within a span of 3 days. The agreement between the CEUS, CDUS, and MES findings was assessed with a chi-square test. A p-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results Neovascularization was observed in 30 lesions (44.4%). The vascular risk factors for stroke were similar and there were no age or gender differences between the 2 groups. Using CEUS, MES were identified in 2 patients (12.5%) within class 1 (non-neovascularization) as opposed to 15 patients (50.0%) within class 2 (neovascularization) (p = 0.023). CDUS revealed no significant differences in the appearance of the MES between the 2 groups (hyperechoic and hypoechoic) (p = 0.237). Conclusion This study provides preliminary evidence to suggest that intraplaque neovascularization detected by CEUS is associated with the presence of MESs, where as plaque echogenicity on traditional CDUS does not. These findings argue that CEUS may better identify high-risk plaques. PMID:23537052

Interactions among variants in TXA2R, P2Y12 and GPIIIa are associated with carotid plaque vulnerability in Chinese population.

PubMed

Yi, Xingyang; Lin, Jing; Luo, Hua; Zhou, Ju; Zhou, Qiang; Wang, Yanfen; Wang, Chun

2018-04-03

The associations between variants in platelet activation-relevant genes and carotid plaque vulnerability are not fully understood. The aim of the present study was to investigate the associations of the variants in platelet activation-relevant genes and interactions among these variants with carotid plaque vulnerability. There were no significant differences in the frequencies of genotypes of the 11 variants between patients and controls. Among 396 patients, 102 patients had not carotid plaque, 106 had VP, and 188 had SP. The 11 variants were not independently associated with risk of carotid plaque vulnerability after adjusting for potential confounding variables. However, the GMDR analysis showed that there were synergistic effects of gene-gene interactions among TXA2Rr s1131882, GPIIIa rs2317676 and P2Y12 rs16863323 on carotid plaque vulnerability. The high-risk interactions among the three variants were associated with high platelet activation, and independently associated with the risk of carotid plaque vulnerability. Eleven variants in platelet activation-relevant genes were examined using mass spectrometry methods in 396 ischemic stroke patients and 291controls. Platelet-leukocyte aggregates and platelet aggregation were also measured. Carotid plaques were assessed by B-mode ultrasound. According to the results of ultrasound, the patients were stratified into three groups: non-plaque group, vulnerable plaque (VP) group and stable plaque (SP) group. Furthermore, gene-gene interactions were analyzed using generalized multifactor dimensionality reduction (GMDR) methods. The rs1131882, rs2317676, and rs16863323 three-loci interactions may confer a higher risk of carotid plaque vulnerability, and might be potential markers for plaque instability.

Modelling self-assessed vulnerability to HIV and its associated factors in a HIV-burdened country.

PubMed

Fagbamigbe, A F; Lawal, A M; Idemudia, E S

2017-12-01

Globally, individuals' self-assessment of vulnerability to HIV infection is important to maintain safer sexual behaviour and reduce risky behaviours. However, determinants of self-perceived risk of HIV infection are not well documented and differ. We assessed the level of self-perceived vulnerability to HIV infection in Nigeria and also identified its risk factors. We explored a recent nationally representative data with self-reported vulnerability ('high', 'low' and 'no risk at all') to HIV infection as the outcome of interest. Data were weighted and association between the outcomes and the risk factors determined. We used simple ordered logit regression to model relationship between the outcome variable and risk factors, and controlled for the significant variables in multiple ordered logistic regression at 5% significance level. About 74% had good knowledge of HIV transmission and 6% had experienced STI recently. The likelihood of assessing oneself as having 'no risk at all' was 50% and for 'high chances' was 1.6%. Self-perceived high risk of HIV was higher among those who recently experienced STI (5.6%) than those who did not (1.7%), and also higher among those who recently engaged in transactional sex and had multiple sexual partners. The odds of good knowledge of HIV transmission on high self-perceived vulnerability to HIV was 19% higher than poor knowledge (OR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.12-1.27). Also, respondents who recently had multiple sexual partners were 72% (OR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.60-1.86) more likely to report self as having high risk. Younger respondents aged 14-19 years had higher odds of 41% (OR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.29-1.55) to perceive self as having high vulnerability to HIV than older respondents. High vulnerability to HIV infection was reported among younger respondents, those with history of STIS and those who engage in multiple sexual relations. Despite high level of risky sexual behaviour and good knowledge of HIV transmission and prevention found in this study, self-perceived vulnerability to HIV generally is low. For the low perception found in this study to translate to low chance of HIV infection, there is need for all stakeholders to embark on risk reduction initiatives through sexual education that would minimise risky sexual practices and ensuring availability and affordability of HIV prevention methods.

Structural vulnerability assessment using reliability of slabs in avalanche area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Favier, Philomène; Bertrand, David; Eckert, Nicolas; Naaim, Mohamed

2013-04-01

Improvement of risk assessment or hazard zoning requires a better understanding of the physical vulnerability of structures. To consider natural hazard issue such as snow avalanches, once the flow is characterized, highlight on the mechanical behaviour of the structure is a decisive step. A challenging approach is to quantify the physical vulnerability of impacted structures according to various avalanche loadings. The main objective of this presentation is to introduce methodology and outcomes regarding the assessment of vulnerability of reinforced concrete buildings using reliability methods. Reinforced concrete has been chosen as it is one of the usual material used to build structures exposed to potential avalanche loadings. In avalanche blue zones, structures have to resist to a pressure up to 30kPa. Thus, by providing systematic fragility relations linked to the global failure of the structure, this method may serve the avalanche risk assessment. To do so, a slab was numerically designed. It represented the avalanche facing wall of a house. Different configuration cases of the element in stake have been treated to quantify numerical aspects of the problem, such as the boundary conditions or the mechanical behaviour of the structure. The structure is analysed according to four different limit states, semi-local and global failures are considered to describe the slab behaviour. The first state is attained when cracks appear in the tensile zone, then the two next states are described consistent with the Eurocode, the final state is the total collapse of the structure characterized by the yield line theory. Failure probability is estimated in accordance to the reliability framework. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to quantify the fragility to different loadings. Sensitivity of models in terms of input distributions were defined with statistical tools such as confidence intervals and Sobol's indexes. Conclusion and discussion of this work are established to well determine contributions, limits and future needs or developments of the research. First of all, this study provides spectrum of fragility curves of reinforced concrete structures which could be used to improve risk assessment. Second, the influence of the failure criterion picked up in this survey are discussed. Then, the weight of the statistical distribution choice is analysed. Finally, the limit between vulnerability and fragility relations is set up to establish the boundary use of our approach.

Climate change induced risk analysis of Dar es Salaam city (Tanzania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topa, Maria Elena; Herslund, Lise; Cavan, Gina; Printz, Andreas; Simonis, Ingo; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie; Hellevik, Siri; Johns, Regina; Kibassa, Deusdedit; Kweka, Clara; Magina, Fredrick; Mangula, Alpha; Mbuya, Elinorata; Uhinga, Guido; Kassenga, Gabriel; Kyessi, Alphonce; Shemdoe, Riziki; Kombe, Wilbard

2013-04-01

CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. The main objective of CLUVA is to develop context-centered methods and knowledge to be applied to African cities to assess vulnerabilities and increase knowledge on managing climate related risks. The project estimates the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale and downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate specific threats to selected African test cities. These are mainly from floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves, and desertification. The project evaluates and links: social vulnerability; urban green structures and ecosystem services; urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. The multi-scale and multi-disciplinary qualitative, quantitative and probabilistic approach of CLUVA is currently being applied to selected African test cities (Addis Ababa - Ethiopia; Dar es Salaam - Tanzania; Douala - Cameroun; Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso; St. Louis - Senegal). In particular, the poster will present preliminary findings for the Dar es Salaam case study. Dar es Salaam, which is Tanzania's largest coastal city, is exposed to floods, coastal erosion, droughts and heat waves, and highly vulnerable to impacts as a result of ineffective urban planning (about 70% unplanned settlements), poverty and lack of basic infrastructure (e.g. lack of or poor quality storm water drainage systems). Climate change could exacerbate the current situation increasing hazard-exposure alongside the impacts of development pressures which act to increase urban vulnerability for example because of informal (unregulated) urbanization. The CLUVA research team - composed of climate and environmental scientists, risk management experts, urban planners and social scientists from both European and African institutions - has started to produce research outputs suitable for use in evidence-based planning activities in the case study cities through interdisciplinary methods and analysis. Climate change projections at 8 km resolution are ready for regions containing each of the case study cities; a preliminary hazard assessment for floods, droughts and heat waves has been performed, based on historical data; urban morphology and related green structures have been characterized; preliminary findings in social vulnerability provide insights how communities and households can resist and cope with, as well as recover from climate induced hazards; vulnerability of informal settlements to floods has been assessed for a case study area (Suna sub ward) and a GIS based identification of urban residential hotspots to flooding is completed. Furthermore, a set of indicators has been identified and the most relevant for Dar es Salaam has been selected by local stakeholders to identify particular vulnerable high risk areas and communities. An investigation of the existing urban planning and governance system and its interface with climate risks and vulnerability has inter-alia suggested severe institutional deficits including over-centralized institutions for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. A multi-risk framework considering climate-related hazards, and physical and social fragilities has been set up.

Assessment of human-natural system characteristics influencing global freshwater supply vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padowski, Julie C.; Gorelick, Steven M.; Thompson, Barton H.; Rozelle, Scott; Fendorf, Scott

2015-10-01

Global freshwater vulnerability is a product of environmental and human dimensions, however, it is rarely assessed as such. Our approach identifies freshwater vulnerability using four broad categories: endowment, demand, infrastructure, and institutions, to capture impacts on natural and managed water systems within the coupled human-hydrologic environment. These categories are represented by 19 different endogenous and exogenous characteristics affecting water supply vulnerability. By evaluating 119 lower per capita income countries (<10 725), we find that every nation experiences some form of vulnerability. Institutional vulnerability is experienced most commonly, occurring in 44 nations, and 23 countries suffer deficiencies in all four categories. Of these highly vulnerable countries, Jordan is the most vulnerable, reporting the greatest number of characteristics (5 of 19) at critical vulnerability levels, with Yemen and Djibouti nearly as vulnerable. Surprising similarities in vulnerability were also found among geographically disparate nations such as Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Guatemala. Determining shared patterns of freshwater vulnerability provides insights into why water supply vulnerabilities are manifested in human-water systems at the national scale.

6 CFR 27.235 - Alternative security program.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... submit an ASP in lieu of a Security Vulnerability Assessment, Site Security Plan, or both. (2) Tier 1... Tier 3 facilities may not submit an ASP in lieu of a Security Vulnerability Assessment. (b) The... Security Vulnerability Assessment or using the procedure specified in § 27.245 if the ASP is intended to...

Integrating Science and Management to Assess Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change

Treesearch

Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Christopher W. Swanston

2017-01-01

We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to...

A support system for assessing local vulnerability to weather and climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coletti, Alex; Howe, Peter D.; Yarnal, Brent; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

The changing number and nature of weather- and climate-related natural hazards is causing more communities to need to assess their vulnerabilities. Vulnerability assessments, however, often require considerable expertise and resources that are not available or too expensive for many communities. To meet the need for an easy-to-use, cost-effective vulnerability assessment tool for communities, a prototype online vulnerability assessment support system was built and tested. This prototype tool guides users through a stakeholder-based vulnerability assessment that breaks the process into four easy-to-implement steps. Data sources are integrated in the online environment so that perceived risks—defined and prioritized qualitatively by users—can be compared and discussed against the impacts that past events have had on the community. The support system is limited in scope, and the locations of the case studies do not provide a sufficiently broad range of sample cases. The addition of more publically available hazard databases combined with future improvements in the support system architecture and software will expand opportunities for testing and fully implementing the support system.

ELER software - a new tool for urban earthquake loss assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hancilar, U.; Tuzun, C.; Yenidogan, C.; Erdik, M.

2010-12-01

Rapid loss estimation after potentially damaging earthquakes is critical for effective emergency response and public information. A methodology and software package, ELER-Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine, for rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses throughout the Euro-Mediterranean region was developed under the Joint Research Activity-3 (JRA3) of the EC FP6 Project entitled "Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology-NERIES". Recently, a new version (v2.0) of ELER software has been released. The multi-level methodology developed is capable of incorporating regional variability and uncertainty originating from ground motion predictions, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships. Although primarily intended for quasi real-time estimation of earthquake shaking and losses, the routine is also equally capable of incorporating scenario-based earthquake loss assessments. This paper introduces the urban earthquake loss assessment module (Level 2) of the ELER software which makes use of the most detailed inventory databases of physical and social elements at risk in combination with the analytical vulnerability relationships and building damage-related casualty vulnerability models for the estimation of building damage and casualty distributions, respectively. Spectral capacity-based loss assessment methodology and its vital components are presented. The analysis methods of the Level 2 module, i.e. Capacity Spectrum Method (ATC-40, 1996), Modified Acceleration-Displacement Response Spectrum Method (FEMA 440, 2005), Reduction Factor Method (Fajfar, 2000) and Coefficient Method (ASCE 41-06, 2006), are applied to the selected building types for validation and verification purposes. The damage estimates are compared to the results obtained from the other studies available in the literature, i.e. SELENA v4.0 (Molina et al., 2008) and ATC-55 (Yang, 2005). An urban loss assessment exercise for a scenario earthquake for the city of Istanbul is conducted and physical and social losses are presented. Damage to the urban environment is compared to the results obtained from similar software, i.e. KOERILoss (KOERI, 2002) and DBELA (Crowley et al., 2004). The European rapid loss estimation tool is expected to help enable effective emergency response, on both local and global level, as well as public information.

Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment Of Farmers and Nomads in Eastern Ecotone of Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, J.; Zhang, Y.

2011-12-01

Livelihood vulnerability assessment provides a scientific basis for anti-poverty of people and regional sustainable development in vulnerable area. Although there are massive discussions on concept of vulnerability, it is still difficult to make it quantitative and to carry out comprehensive appraise. Vulnerability assessments based on sustainable livelihood frame are widely accepted in case studies for attentions to vulnerable groups. However, these case studies are always on regional scale and never reflect how climate change affects people's livelihood and adaptive capability of people. It is necessary to seek vulnerable assessment index system and means based on livelihood process of local people. This paper develops a livelihood vulnerability assessment index system on the basis of sustainable livelihood framework and appraises livelihood vulnerability values of 11 townships, using data of 879 sample households. Livelihood vulnerability assessment index system reflects main risks, livelihood assets and adaptation strategies of local people and government. The results show that livelihood vulnerability level of plateau region is higher than that of mountain to plateau region and mountain gorge region. Manzhang Township in plateau region is the most vulnerable township and nomads there cannot cope with risks of climate change, meadow degeneration and herbs degradation. Upper part of mountain to plateau region and the whole plateau region have high livelihood vulnerability values and local nomads would not cope with risks if no measures are taken by government. The driving forces of livelihood vulnerability include strikes of risks and deficiency of livelihood assets and adaptive capability. Farmers and nomads in high mountain gorge region and lower part of mountain to plateau region can cope with these risks, meanwhile, there are more employment opportunities in second and tertiary industries are needed to help them realize livelihood diversification. Therefore, plateau region and upper part of mountain to plateau region is vulnerable region and active steps should be taken by government to strengthen adaptive capabilities of farmers and nomads. Government relief should shift from improvement of natural assets to improvement of human assets and financial assets, such as technique training, hospitalization insurance, animal disease prevention and treatment, low interest or interest-free loan, restoring gazing areas to grassland in black beach, restoring other degraded pastures.

Gemitis : an integrated and participative risk reduction strategy for the sustainable development of cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masure, P.

2003-04-01

The GEMITIS method has been implemented since 1995 into a global and integrated Risk Reduction Strategy for improving the seismic risk-assessment effectiveness in urban areas, including the generation of crisis scenarios and mid- to long term- seismic impact assessment. GEMITIS required us to provide more precise definitions of notions in common use by natural-hazard specialists, such as elements at risk and vulnerability. Until then, only the physical and human elements had been considered, and analysis of their vulnerability referred to their fragility in the face of aggression by nature. We have completed this approach by also characterizing the social and cultural vulnerability of a city and its inhabitants, and, with a wider scope, the functional vulnerability of the "urban system". This functional vulnerability depends upon the relations between the system elements (weak links in chains, functional relays, and defense systems) and upon the city's relations with the outside world (interdependence). Though well developed in methods for evaluating industrial risk (fault-tree analysis, event-tree analysis, multiple defense barriers, etc.), this aspect had until now been ignored by the "hard-science" specialists working on natural hazards. Based on the implementation of an Urban System Exposure methodology, we were able to identify specific human, institutional, or functional vulnerability factors for each urban system, which until had been very little discussed by risk-analysis and civil-protection specialists. In addition, we have defined the new concept of "main stakes" of the urban system, ranked by order of social value (or collective utility). Obviously, vital or strategic issues must be better resistant or protected against natural hazards than issues of secondary importance. The ranking of exposed elements of a city in terms of "main stakes" provides a very useful guide for adapting vulnerability studies and for orienting preventive actions. For this, GEMITIS is based on a systemic approach of the city and on value analysis of exposed elements. It facilitates a collective expertise for the definition of a preventive action plan based on the participation of the main urban actors (crisis preparedness, construction, land-use, etc.).

Spatially Representing Vulnerability to Extreme Rain Events Using Midwestern Farmers' Objective and Perceived Attributes of Adaptive Capacity.

PubMed

Gardezi, Maaz; Arbuckle, J Gordon

2017-11-29

Potential climate-change-related impacts to agriculture in the upper Midwest pose serious economic and ecological risks to the U.S. and the global economy. On a local level, farmers are at the forefront of responding to the impacts of climate change. Hence, it is important to understand how farmers and their farm operations may be more or less vulnerable to changes in the climate. A vulnerability index is a tool commonly used by researchers and practitioners to represent the geographical distribution of vulnerability in response to global change. Most vulnerability assessments measure objective adaptive capacity using secondary data collected by governmental agencies. However, other scholarship on human behavior has noted that sociocultural and cognitive factors, such as risk perceptions and perceived capacity, are consequential for modulating people's actual vulnerability. Thus, traditional assessments can potentially overlook people's subjective perceptions of changes in climate and extreme weather events and the extent to which people feel prepared to take necessary steps to cope with and respond to the negative effects of climate change. This article addresses this knowledge gap by: (1) incorporating perceived adaptive capacity into a vulnerability assessment; (2) using spatial smoothing to aggregate individual-level vulnerabilities to the county level; and (3) evaluating the relationships among different dimensions of adaptive capacity to examine whether perceived capacity should be integrated into vulnerability assessments. The result suggests that vulnerability assessments that rely only on objective measures might miss important sociocognitive dimensions of capacity. Vulnerability indices and maps presented in this article can inform engagement strategies for improving environmental sustainability in the region. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Groundwater vulnerability mapping in Guadalajara aquifers system (Western Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizo-Decelis, L. David; Marín, Ana I.; Andreo, Bartolomé

2016-04-01

Groundwater vulnerability mapping is a practical tool to implement strategies for land-use planning and sustainable socioeconomic development coherent with groundwater protection. The objective of vulnerability mapping is to identify the most vulnerable zones of catchment areas and to provide criteria for protecting the groundwater used for drinking water supply. The delineation of protection zones in fractured aquifers is a challenging task due to the heterogeneity and anisotropy of hydraulic conductivities, which makes difficult prediction of groundwater flow organization and flow velocities. Different methods of intrinsic groundwater vulnerability mapping were applied in the Atemajac-Toluquilla groundwater body, an aquifers system that covers around 1300 km2. The aquifer supplies the 30% of urban water resources of the metropolitan area of Guadalajara (Mexico), where over 4.6 million people reside. Study area is located in a complex neotectonic active volcanic region in the Santiago River Basin (Western Mexico), which influences the aquifer system underneath the city. Previous works have defined the flow dynamics and identified the origin of recharge. In addition, the mixture of fresh groundwater with hydrothermal and polluted waters have been estimated. Two main aquifers compose the multilayer system. The upper aquifer is unconfined and consists of sediments and pyroclastic materials. Recharge of this aquifer comes from rainwater and ascending vertical fluids from the lower aquifer. The lower aquifer consists of fractured basalts of Pliocene age. Formerly, the main water source has been the upper unit, which is a porous and unconsolidated unit, which acts as a semi-isotropic aquifer. Intense groundwater usage has resulted in lowering the water table in the upper aquifer. Therefore, the current groundwater extraction is carried out from the deeper aquifer and underlying bedrock units, where fracture flow predominates. Pollution indicators have been reported in some monitoring wells, which have been related to anthropogenic activity. Vulnerability maps were produced using different parametric methods (e.g.: DRASTIC, GOD, DISCO, AVI), then the results are compared and assessed. Since each one of these methods use different number of parameters and weights, relatively different results were obtained, although the results have been evaluated with common cartographic inputs. The comparison between selected methods shows that the GOD method results are more correlated with the other methods and produces vulnerability maps comparable with them. Even though groundwater vulnerability is a critical issue around the world, no protection zones have been delineated in Guadalajara city, one of the biggest in Latin America. The groundwater contamination in the study area poses a serious risk for a large population and the environment. This work aims to propose an approach for groundwater protection cartography, based on the application and the comparison of results from different contamination vulnerability methods. These outcomes may assist water authorities to identify the higher vulnerable zones of the aquifers, in order to improving and adapting the land planning and management according to the protection of the own water resources.

Atmospheric Environment Vulnerability Cause Analysis for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu

2018-01-01

Assessing and quantifying atmospheric vulnerability is a key issue in urban environmental protection and management. This paper integrated the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy synthesis evaluation and Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis into an Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptive capacity (ESA) framework to quantitatively assess atmospheric environment vulnerability in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region with spatial and temporal comparisons. The elaboration of the relationships between atmospheric environment vulnerability and indices of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity supports enable analysis of the atmospheric environment vulnerability. Our findings indicate that the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the BTH region exhibits obvious spatial heterogeneity, which is caused by regional diversity in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indices. The results of atmospheric environment vulnerability assessment and the cause analysis can provide guidance to pick out key control regions and recognize vulnerable indicators for study sites. The framework developed in this paper can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to support environmental management. PMID:29342852

Atmospheric Environment Vulnerability Cause Analysis for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu

2018-01-13

Assessing and quantifying atmospheric vulnerability is a key issue in urban environmental protection and management. This paper integrated the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy synthesis evaluation and Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis into an Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptive capacity (ESA) framework to quantitatively assess atmospheric environment vulnerability in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region with spatial and temporal comparisons. The elaboration of the relationships between atmospheric environment vulnerability and indices of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity supports enable analysis of the atmospheric environment vulnerability. Our findings indicate that the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the BTH region exhibits obvious spatial heterogeneity, which is caused by regional diversity in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indices. The results of atmospheric environment vulnerability assessment and the cause analysis can provide guidance to pick out key control regions and recognize vulnerable indicators for study sites. The framework developed in this paper can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to support environmental management.

The Influence of Victim Vulnerability and Gender on Police Officers' Assessment of Intimate Partner Violence Risk.

PubMed

Storey, Jennifer E; Strand, Susanne

2017-01-01

This study investigated the influence of victim vulnerability factors and gender on risk assessment for intimate partner violence (IPV). 867 cases of male and female perpetrated IPV investigated by Swedish police officers using the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER) were examined. For male-to-female IPV, victim vulnerability factors were associated with summary risk judgments and risk management recommendations. For female-to-male IPV, vulnerability factors were more often omitted, and consistent associations were not found between vulnerability factors, summary risk judgments, and risk management. Results indicate that B-SAFER victim vulnerability factors can assist in assessing male-to-female IPV risk. Further research is necessary to examine the use of B-SAFER victim vulnerability factors for female-to-male IPV, as results showed victim vulnerability factors to be less relevant to officers' decision making, particularly their management recommendations. However, several variables external to the B-SAFER, such as the availability of management strategies may account for these findings.

Watershed reliability, resilience and vulnerability analysis under uncertainty using water quality data.

PubMed

Hoque, Yamen M; Tripathi, Shivam; Hantush, Mohamed M; Govindaraju, Rao S

2012-10-30

A method for assessment of watershed health is developed by employing measures of reliability, resilience and vulnerability (R-R-V) using stream water quality data. Observed water quality data are usually sparse, so that a water quality time-series is often reconstructed using surrogate variables (streamflow). A Bayesian algorithm based on relevance vector machine (RVM) was employed to quantify the error in the reconstructed series, and a probabilistic assessment of watershed status was conducted based on established thresholds for various constituents. As an application example, observed water quality data for several constituents at different monitoring points within the Cedar Creek watershed in north-east Indiana (USA) were utilized. Considering uncertainty in the data for the period 2002-2007, the R-R-V analysis revealed that the Cedar Creek watershed tends to be in compliance with respect to selected pesticides, ammonia and total phosphorus. However, the watershed was found to be prone to violations of sediment standards. Ignoring uncertainty in the water quality time-series led to misleading results especially in the case of sediments. Results indicate that the methods presented in this study may be used for assessing the effects of different stressors over a watershed. The method shows promise as a management tool for assessing watershed health. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implications of adopting a biodiversity-based vulnerability index versus a shoreline environmental sensitivity index on management and policy planning along coastal areas.

PubMed

Harik, G; Alameddine, I; Maroun, R; Rachid, G; Bruschi, D; Astiaso Garcia, D; El-Fadel, M

2017-02-01

In this study, a multi-criteria index was developed to assess anthropogenic stressors along the Mediterranean coastline. The index aimed at geo-locating pollution hotspots for informed decision making related to coastal zone management. The index was integrated in a Geographical Information System based geodatabase implemented at several pilot areas along the Northern (Italy and France), Eastern (Lebanon), and Southern (Tunisia) Mediterranean coastlines. The generated stressor maps were coupled with a biodiversity richness index and an environmental sensitivity index to produce vulnerability maps that can form the basis for prioritizing management and mitigation interventions towards the identification of pollution hotspots and the promotion of sustainable coastal zone management. The results identified significant differences between the two assessment methods, which can bias prioritization in decision making and policy planning depending on stakeholders' interests. The discrepancies emphasize the need for transparency and understanding of the underlying foundations behind vulnerability indices and mapping development. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

2009-04-01

The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps on rock conditions (for the same probability level). Again, the highest hazard is found in the northeastern part of the region. The lowest hazard is obtained along major river valleys The vulnerability assessment of the Navarra building stock is accomplished using as proxy a combination of building age, location, number of floors and the implantation of building codes. Field surveys help constraining the extent of traditional and technological construction types. The vulnerability characterization is carried out following three methods: European Macroseismic Scale (EMS 98), RISK UE vulnerability index and the capacity spectrum method implemented in Hazus. Vulnerability distribution maps for each Navarrean municipality are provided, adapted to the EMS98 vulnerability classes. The vulnerability of Navarre is medium to high, except for recent urban, highly populated developments. For each vulnerability class and expected ground motion, damage distribution is estimated by means of damage probability matrixes. Several damage indexes, embracing relative and absolute damage estimates, are used. Expected average damage is low. Whereas the largest amounts of damaged structures are found in big cities, the highest percentages are obtained in some muniucipalities of northeastern Navarre. Additionally, expected percentages and amounts of affected persons by earthquake damage are calculated for each municipality. Expected amounts of affected people are low, reflecting the low expected damage degree.

A model for assessing the systemic vulnerability in landslide prone areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascale, S.; Sdao, F.; Sole, A.

2010-07-01

The objectives of spatial planning should include the definition and assessment of possible mitigation strategies regarding the effects of natural hazards on the surrounding territory. Unfortunately, however, there is often a lack of adequate tools to provide necessary support to the local bodies responsible for land management. This paper deals with the conception, the development and the validation of an integrated numerical model for assessing systemic vulnerability in complex and urbanized landslide-prone areas. The proposed model considers this vulnerability not as a characteristic of a particular element at risk, but as a peculiarity of a complex territorial system, in which the elements are reciprocally linked in a functional way. It is an index of the tendency of a given territorial element to suffer damage (usually of a functional kind) due to its interconnections with other elements of the same territorial system. The innovative nature of this work also lies in the formalization of a procedure based on a network of influences for an adequate assessment of such "systemic" vulnerability. This approach can be used to obtain information which is useful, in any given situation of a territory hit by a landslide event, for the identification of the element which has suffered the most functional damage, ie the most "critical" element and the element which has the greatest repercussions on other elements of the system and thus a "decisive" role in the management of the emergency. This model was developed within a GIS system through the following phases: 1. the topological characterization of the territorial system studied and the assessment of the scenarios in terms of spatial landslide hazard. A statistical method, based on neural networks was proposed for the assessment of landslide hazard; 2. the analysis of the direct consequences of a scenario event on the system; 3. the definition of the assessment model of systemic vulnerability in landslide-prone areas. To highlight the potentialities of the proposed approach we have described a specific case study of landslide hazard in the local council area of Potenza.

Risk assessment of storm surge disaster based on numerical models and remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qingrong; Ruan, Chengqing; Zhong, Shan; Li, Jian; Yin, Zhonghui; Lian, Xihu

2018-06-01

Storm surge is one of the most serious ocean disasters in the world. Risk assessment of storm surge disaster for coastal areas has important implications for planning economic development and reducing disaster losses. Based on risk assessment theory, this paper uses coastal hydrological observations, a numerical storm surge model and multi-source remote sensing data, proposes methods for valuing hazard and vulnerability for storm surge and builds a storm surge risk assessment model. Storm surges in different recurrence periods are simulated in numerical models and the flooding areas and depth are calculated, which are used for assessing the hazard of storm surge; remote sensing data and GIS technology are used for extraction of coastal key objects and classification of coastal land use are identified, which is used for vulnerability assessment of storm surge disaster. The storm surge risk assessment model is applied for a typical coastal city, and the result shows the reliability and validity of the risk assessment model. The building and application of storm surge risk assessment model provides some basis reference for the city development plan and strengthens disaster prevention and mitigation.

78 FR 43863 - Proposed Collection; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-22

... verifying that cleared contractors mitigate and ensuring identified security vulnerabilities. This public... information in ISFD. In turn, this will allow DSS to better tailor vulnerability assessments and other..., prior to annual vulnerability assessments, so that accurate information is continually maintained in...

Historical and projected climate (1901–2050) and hydrologic response of karst aquifers, and species vulnerability in south-central Texas and western South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stamm, John F.; Poteet, Mary F.; Symstad, Amy J.; Musgrove, MaryLynn; Long, Andrew J.; Mahler, Barbara J.; Norton, Parker A.

2015-12-18

Flora and fauna that rely on springflow from Edwards and Madison aquifer sites were assessed for vulnerability to projected climate change on the basis of the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI). The CCVI is determined by the exposure of a species to climate, the sensitivity of the species, and the ability of the species to cope with climate change. Sixteen species associated with springs and groundwater were assessed in the Balcones Escarpment region. The Barton Springs salamander (Eurycea sosorum) was scored as highly vulnerable with moderate confidence. Nine species—three salamanders, a fountain darter (Etheostoma fonticola), three insects, and two amphipods—were scored as moderately vulnerable. The remaining six species—four vascular plants, the Barton cavesnail (Stygopyrgus bartonensis), and a cave shrimp—were scored as not vulnerable/presumed stable (not vulnerable and evidence does not support change in abundance or range of the species). Vulnerability of eight species associated with streams that receive springflow from the Madison aquifer in the Black Hills was assessed. Of these, the American dipper (Cinclus mexicanus) and the lesser yellow lady’s slipper (Cypripedium parviflorum) were scored as moderately vulernable with high confidence. The dwarf scouringrush (Equisetum scirpoides) and autumn willow (Salix serissima) were also scored as moderately vulnerable with moderate to low confidence, respectively. Other species were assessed as not vulnerable/presumed stable or not vulnerable/increase likely (not vulnerable and evidence supporting an increase in abundance or range of the species). Lower vulnerability scores for the Black Hills species in comparison to the Balcones Escarpment species reflect lower endemicity, higher projected springflow than in the historical period, and high thermal tolerance of many of the species for the Black Hills. Importantly, climate change vulnerability scores differed substantially for Edwards aquifer species when RRAWFLOW model projections were included, resulting in increased vulnerability scores for 12 of the 16 species.

Integrated assessment on the vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disasters under climate change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Yanqiang; Wang, Shijin; Fang, Yiping; Nawaz, Zain

2017-10-01

Animal husbandry is a dominant and traditional source of livelihood and income in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the third largest snow covered area in China and is one of the main snow disaster regions in the world. It is thus imperative to urgently address the issue of vulnerability of the animal husbandry sector to snow disasters for disaster mitigation and adaptation under growing risk of these disasters as a result of future climate change. However, there is very few literature reported on the vulnerability of animal husbandry in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. This assessment aims at identifying vulnerability of animal husbandry at spatial scale and to identify the reasons for vulnerability for adaptive planning and disaster mitigation. First, historical snow disaster characteristics have been analyzed and used for the spatial weight for vulnerability assessment. Second, indicator-based vulnerability assessment model and indicator system have been established. We combined risk of snow hazard, sensitivity of livestock to disaster, physical exposure to disaster, and community capacity to adapt to snow disaster in an integrated vulnerability index. Lastly, vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disaster on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been evaluated. Results indicate that high vulnerabilities are mainly concentrated in the eastern and central plateau and that vulnerability decreases gradually from the east to the west. Due to global warming, the vulnerability trend has eased to some extent during the last few decades. High livestock density exposure to blizzard-prone regions and shortages of livestock barn and forage are the main reasons of high vulnerability. The conclusion emphasizes the important role of the local government and community to help local pastoralists for reducing vulnerability to snow disaster and frozen hazard. The approaches presented in this paper can be used for snow disaster mitigation, resilience enhancement and effectively reducing vulnerability to natural hazards in other regions.

Tsunami vulnerability and damage for buildings analyzed by means of two methods (PTVA-3 and SCHEMA) in the area of Augusta and Siracusa, eastern Sicily, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagnoni, Gianluca; Tinti, Stefano

2015-04-01

The coast of the eastern Sicily is exposed to tsunamis that can be generated by local earthquakes (e.g. the 1169, 1693, 1908 events) and by earthquakes located in distant seismic zones (see the 365 AD tsunamigenic quake in Western Hellenic Arc). Tsunamis can also be generated by landslides possibly triggered by earthquakes. The Hyblean-Malta steep escarpment running offshore at a small angle with the coast is an ideal place for submarine mass failure occurrences with tsunamigenic effects. The entire eastern coast of Sicily from Messina in the north to Siracusa in the south is under the threat of tsunamis. In the frame of the FP7 European project ASTARTE (Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe - FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3, Grant 603839), the segment of coast from Augusta to Siracusa was selected to undertake specific and detailed studies of tsunami hazard, vulnerability and damage to test existing methods and develop innovative approaches. The scope of the present work regards vulnerability and damage analyses. We chose to adopt two methods, known in the literature and briefly denoted as PTVA-3 and SCHEMA, that are based on two very different approaches, the former more qualitative and the latter more quantitative. The method PTVA-3 determines the vulnerability and damageability of a building by weighting and ranking a number of attributes covering the structural features of the edifice and the relevant characteristics of the surrounding environment such as the position with respect to the coast, the existence of defensive elements (e.g. walls, breakwaters, vegetation) and also the proximity to potential sources of floating objects that can feed damaging debris flows. On the other hand, the SCHEMA method uses a classification of building and a damage matrix that were derived from experimental fragility and damage curves first established after the Sumatra 2004 tsunami and later refined and adapted to the building stock of the Mediterranean region. The aim of this work is to compare the vulnerability and damage analyses carried out by means of the PTVA-3 and the SCHEMA methods on the same data set, that is the urban and port areas of Siracusa and Augusta in order to highlight similarities and discrepancies. In this preliminary analysis the coastal inundation was not derived from tsunami simulations, but was assumed to be constant along the coast (bathtub hypothesis) and was taken to be 5 m and 10 m respectively for Siracusa and Augusta. The main outcome of the compared analysis is that the two methods do not provide completely overlapping vulnerability and damage maps, though they use equivalent 5-degree scales. In general the PTVA-3 method tends to overestimate the damage, although there are several counterexamples where PTVA-3 foresees less damage than SCHEMA. The differences we found in the assessment opens the question of how to treat uncertainties in the vulnerability and damage analyses, which is a problem often overlooked, but of crucial importance for the application and for civil authorities.

Psychometric Properties and Utility of the Social Vulnerability Questionnaire for Individuals with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities.

PubMed

Fisher, Marisa H; Shivers, Carolyn M; Josol, Cynde K

2018-06-05

Although it is well-known that individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) are socially vulnerable, the field lacks valid assessments to identify risk factors for victimization. Parents/caregivers of 428 individuals with IDD (ages 12-53) completed the social vulnerability questionnaire (SVQ), a measure developed to assess specific aspects of social vulnerability among individuals with various forms of IDD. This study examined the psychometric structure of the SVQ (exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis), and the utility of the factors of the SVQ as predictors of diagnostic category (through discriminate function analysis). Results provide psychometric support for use of the SVQ and its factors for further research and as part of a clinical assessment battery to assess social vulnerability and to develop interventions.

Impact of hydrogeological factors on groundwater salinization due to ocean-surge inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jie; Zhang, Huichen; Yu, Xuan; Graf, Thomas; Michael, Holly A.

2018-01-01

Ocean surges cause seawater inundation of coastal inland areas. Subsequently, seawater infiltrates into coastal aquifers and threatens the fresh groundwater resource. The severity of resulting salinization can be affected by hydrogeological factors including aquifer properties and hydrologic conditions, however, little research has been done to assess these effects. To understand the impacts of hydrogeological factors on groundwater salinization, we numerically simulated an ocean-surge inundation event on a two-dimensional conceptual coastal aquifer using a coupled surface-subsurface approach. We varied model permeability (including anisotropy), inland hydraulic gradient, and recharge rate. Three salinization-assessment indicators were developed, based on flushing time, depth of salt penetration, and a combination of the two, weighted flushing time, with which the impact of hydrogeological factors on groundwater vulnerability to salinization were quantitatively assessed. The vulnerability of coastal aquifers increases with increasing isotropic permeability. Low horizontal permeability (kx) and high vertical permeability (kz) lead to high aquifer vulnerability, and high kx and low kz lead to low aquifer vulnerability. Vulnerability decreases with increasing groundwater hydraulic gradient and increasing recharge rate. Additionally, coastal aquifers with a low recharge rate (R ≤ 300 mm yr-1) may be highly vulnerable to ocean-surge inundation. This study shows how the newly introduced indicators can be used to quantitatively assess coastal aquifer vulnerability. The results are important for global vulnerability assessment of coastal aquifers to ocean-surge inundation.

Seawater intrusion vulnerability indicators for freshwater lenses in strip islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgan, L.; Werner, A. D.

2014-12-01

Freshwater lenses on small islands have been described as some of the most vulnerable aquifer systems in the world. Yet, little guidance is available regarding methods for rapidly assessing the vulnerability of freshwater lenses to the potential effects of climate change. To address this gap we employ a steady-state analytic modelling approach to develop seawater intrusion (SWI) vulnerability indicator equations. The vulnerability indicator equations quantify the propensity for SWI to occur in strip islands due to both recharge change and sea-level rise (SLR) (incorporating the effect of land surface inundation (LSI)). This work extends that of Werner et al. (2012) who developed SWI vulnerability indicator equations for unconfined and confined continental aquifers, and did not consider LSI. Flux-controlled and head-controlled conceptualisations of freshwater lenses are adopted. Under flux-controlled conditions the water table is able to rise unencumbered by land surface effects. Under head-controlled conditions the head is fixed at the centre of the lens due to, for example, centrally located topographic controls, surface water features or pumping. A number of inferences about SWI vulnerability in freshwater lenses can be made from the analysis: (1) SWI vulnerability indicators for SLR (under flux-controlled conditions) are proportional to lens thickness (or volume) and the rate of LSI and inversely proportional to island width; (2) SWI vulnerability indicators for recharge change (under flux-controlled conditions) are proportional to lens thickness (or volume) and inversely proportional to recharge; (3) SLR has greater impact under head-controlled conditions rather than flux-controlled conditions, whereas the opposite is the case for LSI and recharge change. Example applications to several case studies illustrate use of the method for rapidly ranking lenses according to vulnerability, thereby allowing for prioritisation of areas where further and more detailed SWI investigations may be required. References Werner, A.D., Ward, J.D., Morgan, L.K., Simmons, C.T., Robinson, N.I., Teubner, M.D., 2012. Vulnerability indicators of seawater intrusion. Ground Water 50(1), 48-58. doi:10.1111/j.1745-6584.2011.00817.x.

Multi-level significance of vulnerability indicators. Case study: Eastern Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanga, I. C.; Grozavu, A.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment aims, most frequently, to emphasize internal fragility of a system comparing to a reference standard, to similar systems or in relation to a given hazard. Internal fragility, either biophysical or structural, may affect the capacity to predict, to prepare for, to cope with or to recover from a disaster. Thus, vulnerability is linked to resilience and adaptive capacity. From local level to global one, vulnerability factors and corresponding indicators are different and their significance must be tested and validated in a well-structured conceptual and methodological framework. In this paper, the authors aim to show the real vulnerability of rural settlements in Eastern Romania in a multi-level approach. The research area, Tutova Hills, counts about 3421 sq.km and more than 200.000 inhabitants in 421 villages characterized by deficient accessibility, lack of endowments, subsistential agriculture, high pressure on natural environment (especially on forest and soil resources), poverty and aging process of population. Factors that could influence the vulnerability of these rural settlements have been inventoried and assigned into groups through a cluster analysis: habitat and technical urban facilities, infrastructure, economical, social and demographical indicators, environment quality, management of emergency situations etc. Firstly, the main difficulty was to convert qualitative variable in quantitative indicators and to standardize all values to make possible mathematical and statistical processing of data. Secondly, the great variability of vulnerability factors, their different measuring units and their high amplitude of variation require different method of standardization in order to obtain values between zero (minimum vulnerability) and one (maximum vulnerability). Final vulnerability indicators were selected and integrated in a general scheme, according to their significance resulted from an appropriate factor analysis: linear and logistic regression, varimax rotation, multiple-criteria decision analysis, weight of evidence, multi-criteria evaluation method etc. The approach started from the local level which allows a functional and structural analysis and was progressively translated to an upper level and to a spatial analysis. The model shows that changing the level of analysis diminishes the functional significance of some indicators and increases the capacity of discretization in the case of others, highlighting the spatial and functional complexity of vulnerability.

Assessment of Hammocks (Petenes) Resilience to Sea Level Rise Due to Climate Change in Mexico

PubMed Central

Posada Vanegas, Gregorio; de Jong, Bernardus H. J.

2016-01-01

There is a pressing need to assess resilience of coastal ecosystems against sea level rise. To develop appropriate response strategies against future climate disturbances, it is important to estimate the magnitude of disturbances that these ecosystems can absorb and to better understand their underlying processes. Hammocks (petenes) coastal ecosystems are highly vulnerable to sea level rise linked to climate change; their vulnerability is mainly due to its close relation with the sea through underground drainage in predominantly karstic soils. Hammocks are biologically important because of their high diversity and restricted distribution. This study proposes a strategy to assess resilience of this coastal ecosystem when high-precision data are scarce. Approaches and methods used to derive ecological resilience maps of hammocks are described and assessed. Resilience models were built by incorporating and weighting appropriate indicators of persistence to assess hammocks resilience against flooding due to climate change at “Los Petenes Biosphere Reserve”, in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico. According to the analysis, 25% of the study area is highly resilient (hot spots), whereas 51% has low resilience (cold spots). The most significant hot spot clusters of resilience were located in areas distant to the coastal zone, with indirect tidal influence, and consisted mostly of hammocks surrounded by basin mangrove and floodplain forest. This study revealed that multi-criteria analysis and the use of GIS for qualitative, semi-quantitative and statistical spatial analyses constitute a powerful tool to develop ecological resilience maps of coastal ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to sea level rise, even when high-precision data are not available. This method can be applied in other sites to help develop resilience analyses and decision-making processes for management and conservation of coastal areas worldwide. PMID:27611802

Assessment of Hammocks (Petenes) Resilience to Sea Level Rise Due to Climate Change in Mexico.

PubMed

Hernández-Montilla, Mariana C; Martínez-Morales, Miguel Angel; Posada Vanegas, Gregorio; de Jong, Bernardus H J

2016-01-01

There is a pressing need to assess resilience of coastal ecosystems against sea level rise. To develop appropriate response strategies against future climate disturbances, it is important to estimate the magnitude of disturbances that these ecosystems can absorb and to better understand their underlying processes. Hammocks (petenes) coastal ecosystems are highly vulnerable to sea level rise linked to climate change; their vulnerability is mainly due to its close relation with the sea through underground drainage in predominantly karstic soils. Hammocks are biologically important because of their high diversity and restricted distribution. This study proposes a strategy to assess resilience of this coastal ecosystem when high-precision data are scarce. Approaches and methods used to derive ecological resilience maps of hammocks are described and assessed. Resilience models were built by incorporating and weighting appropriate indicators of persistence to assess hammocks resilience against flooding due to climate change at "Los Petenes Biosphere Reserve", in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico. According to the analysis, 25% of the study area is highly resilient (hot spots), whereas 51% has low resilience (cold spots). The most significant hot spot clusters of resilience were located in areas distant to the coastal zone, with indirect tidal influence, and consisted mostly of hammocks surrounded by basin mangrove and floodplain forest. This study revealed that multi-criteria analysis and the use of GIS for qualitative, semi-quantitative and statistical spatial analyses constitute a powerful tool to develop ecological resilience maps of coastal ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to sea level rise, even when high-precision data are not available. This method can be applied in other sites to help develop resilience analyses and decision-making processes for management and conservation of coastal areas worldwide.

Final ecosystem goods and services enhance societal relevance of contaminated-site remediation

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/Methods Exposure to environmental stressors can adversely affect both human health and ecological receptors and impacts on the latter influence the community's overall vulnerability. Risk assessment guidance promotes conceptual site models to integrate multip...

Vulnerability of ground water to contamination, Edwards Aquifer recharge zone, Bexar County, Texas, 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Allan K.

2000-01-01

The Edwards aquifer, one of the most productive carbonate-rock aquifers in the Nation, is composed of the Kainer and Person Formations of the Edwards Group plus the overlying Georgetown Formation. Most recharge to the Edwards aquifer results from the percolation of streamflow loss and the infiltration of precipitation through porous parts of the recharge zone. Residential and commercial development is increasing, particularly in Bexar County in south-central Texas, atop the densely fractured and steeply faulted recharge zone. The increasing development has increased the vulnerability of ground water to contamination by spillage or leakage of waste materials, particularly fluids associated with urban runoff and (or) septic-tank leachate. This report describes a method of assessing the vulnerability of ground water to contamination in the Edwards aquifer recharge zone. The method is based on ratings of five natural features of the area: (1) hydraulic properties of outcropping hydrogeologic units; (2) presence or absence of faults; (3) presence or absence of caves and (or) sinkholes; (4) slope of land surface; and (5) permeability of soil. The sum of the ratings for the five natural features was used to develop a map showing the recharge zone's vulnerability to ground-water contamination.

Use of North American Breeding Bird Survey data in avian conservation assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberg, Kenneth V.; Blancher, Peter J.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Panjabi, Arvind O.

2017-01-01

Conservation resources are limited, and prioritizing species based on their relative vulnerability and risk of extinction is a fundamental component of conservation planning. In North America, the conservation consortium Partners in Flight (PIF) has developed and implemented a data-driven species assessment process, at global and regional scales, based on quantitative vulnerability criteria. This species assessment process has formed the biological basis for PIF's continental and regional planning and has informed the ranking and legal listing of bird species for conservation protection by state, provincial, and national agencies in Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. Because of its long time series, extensive geographic and species coverage, standardized survey methods, and prompt availability of results, the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has been an invaluable source of data, allowing PIF to assign objective vulnerability scores calibrated across more than 460 landbird species. BBS data have been most valuable for assessing long-term population trends (PT score). PIF has also developed methods for estimating population size by extrapolating from BBS abundance indices, allowing the assignment of categorical population size (PS) scores for landbird species. At regional scales, BBS relative abundance indices have allowed PIF to assess the area importance (i.e. stewardship responsibility) of each Bird Conservation Region (BCR) for each species, using measures of both relative density and percent of total population in each BCR. Besides direct applicability to assessment scores, PIF has recently used BBS trend data to create new metrics of conservation urgency (e.g., ‘half-life'), as well as for setting population objectives for tracking progress toward meeting conservation goals. Future directions include integrating BBS data with other sources (e.g., eBird) to assess additional species and nonbreeding season measures, working closely with BBS coordinators to expand surveys into Mexico, and providing assessment scores at implementation-relevant scales, such as for migratory bird joint ventures.

Optimization of DRASTIC method by artificial neural network, nitrate vulnerability index, and composite DRASTIC models to assess groundwater vulnerability for unconfined aquifer of Shiraz Plain, Iran.

PubMed

Baghapour, Mohammad Ali; Fadaei Nobandegani, Amir; Talebbeydokhti, Nasser; Bagherzadeh, Somayeh; Nadiri, Ata Allah; Gharekhani, Maryam; Chitsazan, Nima

2016-01-01

Extensive human activities and unplanned land uses have put groundwater resources of Shiraz plain at a high risk of nitrate pollution, causing several environmental and human health issues. To address these issues, water resources managers utilize groundwater vulnerability assessment and determination of protection. This study aimed to prepare the vulnerability maps of Shiraz aquifer by using Composite DRASTIC index, Nitrate Vulnerability index, and artificial neural network and also to compare their efficiency. The parameters of the indexes that were employed in this study are: depth to water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of the vadose zone, hydraulic conductivity, and land use. These parameters were rated, weighted, and integrated using GIS, and then, used to develop the risk maps of Shiraz aquifer. The results indicated that the southeastern part of the aquifer was at the highest potential risk. Given the distribution of groundwater nitrate concentrations from the wells in the underlying aquifer, the artificial neural network model offered greater accuracy compared to the other two indexes. The study concluded that the artificial neural network model is an effective model to improve the DRASTIC index and provides a confident estimate of the pollution risk. As intensive agricultural activities are the dominant land use and water table is shallow in the vulnerable zones, optimized irrigation techniques and a lower rate of fertilizers are suggested. The findings of our study could be used as a scientific basis in future for sustainable groundwater management in Shiraz plain.

(Non-) robustness of vulnerability assessments to climate change: An application to New Zealand.

PubMed

Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago; Renteria, Willington

2017-12-01

Assessments of vulnerability to climate change are a key element to inform climate policy and research. Assessments based on the aggregation of indicators have a strong appeal for their simplicity but are at risk of over-simplification and uncertainty. This paper explores the non-robustness of indicators-based assessments to changes in assumptions on the degree of substitution or compensation between indicators. Our case study is a nationwide assessment for New Zealand. We found that the ranking of geographic areas is sensitive to different parameterisations of the aggregation function, that is, areas that are categorised as highly vulnerable may switch to the least vulnerable category even with respect to the same climate hazards and population groups. Policy implications from the assessments are then compromised. Though indicators-based approaches may help on identifying drivers of vulnerability, there are weak grounds to use them to recommend mitigation or adaptation decisions given the high level of uncertainty because of non-robustness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing socioeconomic vulnerability to dengue fever in Cali, Colombia: statistical vs expert-based modeling

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background As a result of changes in climatic conditions and greater resistance to insecticides, many regions across the globe, including Colombia, have been facing a resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever in particular. Timely information on both (1) the spatial distribution of the disease, and (2) prevailing vulnerabilities of the population are needed to adequately plan targeted preventive intervention. We propose a methodology for the spatial assessment of current socioeconomic vulnerabilities to dengue fever in Cali, a tropical urban environment of Colombia. Methods Based on a set of socioeconomic and demographic indicators derived from census data and ancillary geospatial datasets, we develop a spatial approach for both expert-based and purely statistical-based modeling of current vulnerability levels across 340 neighborhoods of the city using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results of both approaches are comparatively evaluated by means of spatial statistics. A web-based approach is proposed to facilitate the visualization and the dissemination of the output vulnerability index to the community. Results The statistical and the expert-based modeling approach exhibit a high concordance, globally, and spatially. The expert-based approach indicates a slightly higher vulnerability mean (0.53) and vulnerability median (0.56) across all neighborhoods, compared to the purely statistical approach (mean = 0.48; median = 0.49). Both approaches reveal that high values of vulnerability tend to cluster in the eastern, north-eastern, and western part of the city. These are poor neighborhoods with high percentages of young (i.e., < 15 years) and illiterate residents, as well as a high proportion of individuals being either unemployed or doing housework. Conclusions Both modeling approaches reveal similar outputs, indicating that in the absence of local expertise, statistical approaches could be used, with caution. By decomposing identified vulnerability “hotspots” into their underlying factors, our approach provides valuable information on both (1) the location of neighborhoods, and (2) vulnerability factors that should be given priority in the context of targeted intervention strategies. The results support decision makers to allocate resources in a manner that may reduce existing susceptibilities and strengthen resilience, and thus help to reduce the burden of vector-borne diseases. PMID:23945265

Vulnerability of schools to floods in Nyando River catchment, Kenya.

PubMed

Ochola, Samuel O; Eitel, Bernhard; Olago, Daniel O

2010-07-01

This paper assesses the vulnerability of schools to floods in the Nyando River catchment (3,600 km(2)) in western Kenya and identifies measures needed to reduce this vulnerability. It surveys 130 schools in the lower reaches, where flooding is a recurrent phenomenon. Of the primary schools assessed, 40% were vulnerable, 48% were marginally vulnerable and 12% were not vulnerable. Of the secondary schools, 8% were vulnerable, 73% were marginally vulnerable and 19% were not vulnerable. Vulnerability to floods is due to a lack of funds, poor building standards, local topography, soil types and inadequate drainage. The Constituencies Development Fund (CDF), established in 2003, provides financial support to cover school construction and reconstruction costs; CDF Committees are expected to adopt school building standards. In an effort to promote safe and resilient construction and retrofitting to withstand floods, this paper presents vulnerability reduction strategies and recommendations for incorporating minimum standards in the on-going Primary School Infrastructure Programme Design.

Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

2015-04-01

Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare traditional vulnerability distributions with more recent conceptualisation of risks, more research should be devoted to global assessments of climate change risk distributions.

Dynamics and ecological risk assessment of chromophoric dissolved organic matter in the Yinma River Watershed: Rivers, reservoirs, and urban waters.

PubMed

Li, Sijia; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Zhang, Feng; Ma, Qiyun; Mu, Guangyi

2017-10-01

The extensive use of a geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing in ecological risk assessment from a spatiotemporal perspective complements ecological environment management. Chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM), which is a complex mixture of organic matter that can be estimated via remote sensing, carries and produces carcinogenic disinfection by-products and organic pollutants in various aquatic environments. This paper reports the first ecological risk assessment, which was conducted in 2016, of CDOM in the Yinma River watershed including riverine waters, reservoir waters, and urban waters. Referring to the risk formation theory of natural disaster, the entropy evaluation method and DPSIR (driving force-pressure-state-impact-response) framework were coupled to establish a hazard and vulnerability index with multisource data, i.e., meteorological, remote sensing, experimental, and socioeconomic data, of this watershed. This ecological vulnerability assessment indicator system contains 23 indicators with respect to ecological sensitivity, ecological pressure, and self-resilience. The characteristics of CDOM absorption parameters from different waters showed higher aromatic content and molecular weights in May because of increased terrestrial inputs. The assessment results indicated that the overall ecosystem risk in the study area was focused in the extremely, heavily, and moderately vulnerable regions. The ecological risk assessment results objectively reflect the regional ecological environment and demonstrate the potential of ecological risk assessment of pollutants over traditional chemical measurements. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Summarizing components of U.S. Department of the Interior vulnerability assessments to focus climate adaptation planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Laura M.; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Carter, Shawn L.

2015-09-29

A secretarial order identified climate adaptation as a critical performance objective for future management of U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) lands and resources in response to global change. Vulnerability assessments can inform climate adaptation planning by providing insight into what natural resources are most at risk and why. Three components of vulnerability—exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity—were defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as necessary for identifying climate adaptation strategies and actions. In 2011, the DOI requested all internal bureaus report ongoing or completed vulnerability assessments about a defined range of assessment targets or climate-related threats. Assessment targets were defined as freshwater resources, landscapes and wildlife habitat, native and cultural resources, and ocean health. Climate-related threats were defined as invasive species, wildfire risk, sea-level rise, and melting ice and permafrost. Four hundred and three projects were reported, but the original DOI survey did not specify that information be provided on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity collectively as part of the request, and it was unclear which projects adhered to the framework recommended by the IPCC. Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center conducted a supplemental survey to determine how frequently each of the three vulnerability components was assessed. Information was categorized for 124 of the 403 reported projects (30.8 percent) based on the three vulnerability components, and it was discovered that exposure was the most common component assessed (87.9 percent), followed by sensitivity (68.5 percent) and adaptive capacity (33.1 percent). The majority of projects did not fully assess vulnerability; projects focused on landscapes/wildlife habitats and sea-level rise were among the minority that simultaneously addressed all three vulnerability components. To maintain consistency with the IPCC definition of vulnerability, DOI may want to focus initial climate adaptation planning only on the outcomes of studies that comprehensively address vulnerability as inclusive of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Although the present study results are preliminary and used an unstructured survey design, they illustrate the importance of a comprehensive and consistent vulnerability definition and of using information on vulnerability components in DOI surveys to ensure relevant data are used to identify adaptation options.

Classifying plant series-level forest potential types: methods for subbasins sampled in the midscale assessment of the interior Columbia basin.

Treesearch

Paul F. Hessburg; Bradley G. Smith; Scott D. Kreiter; Craig A. Miller; Cecilia H. McNicoll; Michele. Wasienko-Holland

2000-01-01

In the interior Columbia River basin midscale ecological assessment, we mapped and characterized historical and current vegetation composition and structure of 337 randomly sampled subwatersheds (9500 ha average size) in 43 subbasins (404 000 ha average size). We compared landscape patterns, vegetation structure and composition, and landscape vulnerability to wildfires...

Health adaptation policy for climate vulnerable groups: a 'critical computational linguistics' analysis.

PubMed

Seidel, Bastian M; Bell, Erica

2014-11-28

Many countries are developing or reviewing national adaptation policy for climate change but the extent to which these meet the health needs of vulnerable groups has not been assessed. This study examines the adequacy of such policies for nine known climate-vulnerable groups: people with mental health conditions, Aboriginal people, culturally and linguistically diverse groups, aged people, people with disabilities, rural communities, children, women, and socioeconomically disadvantaged people. The study analyses an exhaustive sample of national adaptation policy documents from Annex 1 ('developed') countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: 20 documents from 12 countries. A 'critical computational linguistics' method was used involving novel software-driven quantitative mapping and traditional critical discourse analysis. The study finds that references to vulnerable groups are relatively little present or non-existent, as well as poorly connected to language about practical strategies and socio-economic contexts, both also little present. The conclusions offer strategies for developing policy that is better informed by a 'social determinants of health' definition of climate vulnerability, consistent with best practice in the literature and global policy prescriptions.

Community variations in social vulnerability to Cascadia-related tsunamis in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, N.J.; Burton, C.G.; Cutter, S.L.

2010-01-01

Tsunamis generated by Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes pose significant threats to coastal communities in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. Impacts of future tsunamis to individuals and communities will likely vary due to pre-event socioeconomic and demographic differences. In order to assess social vulnerability to Cascadia tsunamis, we adjust a social vulnerability index based on principal component analysis first developed by Cutter et al. (2003) to operate at the census-block level of geography and focus on community-level comparisons along the Oregon coast. The number of residents from blocks in tsunami-prone areas considered to have higher social vulnerability varies considerably among 26 Oregon cities and most are concentrated in four cities and two unincorporated areas. Variations in the number of residents from census blocks considered to have higher social vulnerability in each city do not strongly correlate with the number of residents or city assets in tsunami-prone areas. Methods presented here will help emergency managers to identify community sub-groups that are more susceptible to loss and to develop risk-reduction strategies that are tailored to local conditions. ?? z.

Using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process multicriteria and Geographical information system for coastal vulnerability analysis in Morocco: The case of Mohammedia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tahri, Meryem; Maanan, Mohamed; Hakdaoui, Mustapha

2016-04-01

This paper shows a method to assess the vulnerability of coastal risks such as coastal erosion or submarine applying Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and spatial analysis techniques with Geographic Information System (GIS). The coast of the Mohammedia located in Morocco was chosen as the study site to implement and validate the proposed framework by applying a GIS-FAHP based methodology. The coastal risk vulnerability mapping follows multi-parametric causative factors as sea level rise, significant wave height, tidal range, coastal erosion, elevation, geomorphology and distance to an urban area. The Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology enables the calculation of corresponding criteria weights. The result shows that the coastline of the Mohammedia is characterized by a moderate, high and very high level of vulnerability to coastal risk. The high vulnerability areas are situated in the east at Monika and Sablette beaches. This technical approach is based on the efficiency of the Geographic Information System tool based on Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process to help decision maker to find optimal strategies to minimize coastal risks.

An atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework for environment management and protection based on CAMx.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu

2018-02-01

This paper presents an atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework based on CAMx that should be helpful to assess potential impacts of changes in human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements of atmospheric vulnerability. It is also a useful and effective tool that can provide policy-guidance for environmental protection and management to reduce the atmospheric vulnerability. The developed framework was applied to evaluate the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region for verification. The results indicated that regional disparity of the atmospheric vulnerability existed in the study site. More specifically, the central and southern regions show more atmospheric environment vulnerability than the northern regions. The impact factors of atmospheric environment vulnerability in the BTH region mainly derived from increasing population press, frequently unfavorable meteorological conditions, extensive economic growth of secondary industry, increased environmental pollution, and accelerating population aging. The framework shown in this paper is an interpretative and heuristic tool for a better understanding of atmospheric vulnerability. This framework can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to straightly support environmental managers with decision-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interactive exploration of the vulnerability of the human infrastructure: an approach using simultaneous display of similar locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceré, Raphaël; Kaiser, Christian

2015-04-01

Currently, three quarters of the Swiss population is living in urban areas. The total population is still increasing, and urbanized space is increasing event faster. Consequently, the intensity of use has decreased but the exposure of the urban space to natural events has grown along with the cost related to the impact of hazards. In line with this fact, during the 20th century there has been a noticeable increase of natural disasters accompanied by the rapid increase of the world population, leading to higher costs. Additionally to the fact that more people are exposed to natural hazards, the value of goods globally has increased more than proportionally. Consequently, the vulnerability of urban space is, more than ever before, a major issue for socio-economic development. Here, vulnerability is defined as the potential human loss or loss of infrastructure caused by a hazardous event. It encompasses factors of urban infrastructure, population and the environment, which increase the susceptibility of a location to the impact of hazards. This paper describes a novel method for improving the interactive use of exploratory data analysis in the context of minimizing vulnerability and disaster risk by prevention or mitigation. This method is used to assess the similarity between different locations with respect to several characteristics relevant to vulnerability at different scales, allowing for automatic display of multiple locations similar to the one under investigation by an expert. Visualizing vulnerability simultaneously for several locations allows for analyzing and comparing of metric characteristics between multiple places and at different scales. The interactivity aspect is also useful for understanding vulnerability patterns and it facilitates disaster risk management and decisions on global preventive measures in urban spaces. Metrics for vulnerability assessment can be extracted from extensive geospatial datasets such as high-resolution digital elevation models (DEM) or individual building vector layers. Morphological properties can be calculated for different scales using different moving window sizes. Multi-scale measures such as fractal or lacunarity can be integrated into the analysis. Other properties such as different densities and ratios are also easy to calculate and include. Based on a rather extensive set of properties or features, a feature selection or extraction method such as Principal Component Analysis can be used to obtain a subset of relevant properties. In a second step, an unsupervised classification algorithm such as Self-Organizing Maps can be used to group similar locations together, and criteria such as the intra-group distance and geographic distribution can be used for selecting relevant locations to be displayed in an interactive data exploration interface along with a given main location. A case study for a part of Switzerland illustrates the presented approach within a working interactive tool, showing the feasibility and allowing for an investigation of the usefulness of our method.

Application of the new scenario framework for climate change research: Future social vulnerability in large urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohat, Guillaume; Flacke, Johannes; Dao, Hy

2016-04-01

It is by now widely acknowledged that future social vulnerability to climate change depends on both future climate state and future socio-economic conditions. Nevertheless, while most of the vulnerability assessments are using climate projections, the integration of socio-economic projections into the assessment of vulnerabilities has been very limited. Up to now, the vast majority of vulnerability assessments has been using current socio-economic conditions, hence has failed to consider the influence of socio-economic developments in the construction of vulnerability. To enhance the use of socio-economic projections into climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, the climate change research community has been recently involved in the development of a new model for creating scenarios that integrate future changes in climate as well as in society, known under the name of the new scenario framework for climate change research. This theoretical framework is made of a set of alternative futures of socio-economic developments (known as shared socio-economic pathways - SSPs), a set of hypothesis about future climate policies (known as shared policy assumptions - SPAs) and a set of greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (known as representative concentration pathways - RCPs), which are all combined into a scenario matrix architecture (SMA) whose aim is to facilitate the use of this framework. Despite calls by the climate change research community for the use of this conceptual framework in impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research, its use and its assessment has been very limited. Focusing on case-studies (i.e. specific cities as well as specific climate impacts and their associated human exposures and vulnerabilities), the study presented here will attempt to operationalize this theoretical framework for the assessment of future social vulnerability in large urban areas. A particular attention will be paid to less advanced and more vulnerable countries in the global south. We will discuss how this framework can be implemented for large urban agglomerations. To do so, we will examine: (i) by what means globally-developed SSPs can be extended into sector-specific and location-specific socio-economic development scenarios, (ii) in what manner the quantification of key socio-economic indicators (in accordance with the different SSPs), coupled with regional climate projections under different RCPs, can lead to a quantitative and reliable assessment of the evolution of future social vulnerability, and (iii) to which extent the SMA, i.e. the combination of extended SSPs, regional climate projections (under different RCPs) and various locally-developed SPAs, can answer some of the key questions regarding climate change adaptation policies, from a vulnerability perspective.

Combining particle-tracking and geochemical data to assess public supply well vulnerability to arsenic and uranium

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hinkle, S.R.; Kauffman, L.J.; Thomas, M.A.; Brown, C.J.; McCarthy, K.A.; Eberts, S.M.; Rosen, Michael R.; Katz, B.G.

2009-01-01

Flow-model particle-tracking results and geochemical data from seven study areas across the United States were analyzed using three statistical methods to test the hypothesis that these variables can successfully be used to assess public supply well vulnerability to arsenic and uranium. Principal components analysis indicated that arsenic and uranium concentrations were associated with particle-tracking variables that simulate time of travel and water fluxes through aquifer systems and also through specific redox and pH zones within aquifers. Time-of-travel variables are important because many geochemical reactions are kinetically limited, and geochemical zonation can account for different modes of mobilization and fate. Spearman correlation analysis established statistical significance for correlations of arsenic and uranium concentrations with variables derived using the particle-tracking routines. Correlations between uranium concentrations and particle-tracking variables were generally strongest for variables computed for distinct redox zones. Classification tree analysis on arsenic concentrations yielded a quantitative categorical model using time-of-travel variables and solid-phase-arsenic concentrations. The classification tree model accuracy on the learning data subset was 70%, and on the testing data subset, 79%, demonstrating one application in which particle-tracking variables can be used predictively in a quantitative screening-level assessment of public supply well vulnerability. Ground-water management actions that are based on avoidance of young ground water, reflecting the premise that young ground water is more vulnerable to anthropogenic contaminants than is old ground water, may inadvertently lead to increased vulnerability to natural contaminants due to the tendency for concentrations of many natural contaminants to increase with increasing ground-water residence time.

Integrated flash flood vulnerability assessment: Insights from East Attica, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Thaler, Thomas; Heiser, Micha; Hübl, Johannes; Fuchs, Sven

2016-10-01

In the framework of flood risk assessment, vulnerability is a key concept to assess the susceptibility of elements at risk. Besides the increasing amount of studies on flash floods available, in-depth information on vulnerability in Mediterranean countries was missing so far. Moreover, current approaches in vulnerability research are driven by a divide between social scientists who tend to view vulnerability as representing a set of socio-economic factors, and natural scientists who view vulnerability in terms of the degree of loss to an element at risk. Further, vulnerability studies in response to flash flood processes are rarely answered in the literature. In order to close this gap, this paper implemented an integrated vulnerability approach focusing on residential buildings exposed to flash floods in Greece. In general, both physical and social vulnerability was comparable low, which is interpreted as a result from (a) specific building regulations in Greece as well as general design principles leading to less structural susceptibility of elements at risk exposed, and (b) relatively low economic losses leading to less social vulnerability of citizens exposed. The population show high risk awareness and coping capacity to response to natural hazards event and in the same time the impact of the events are quite low, because of the already high use of local protection measures. The low vulnerability score for East Attica can be attributed especially to the low physical vulnerability and the moderate socio-economic well-being of the area. The consequence is to focus risk management strategies mainly in the reduction of the social vulnerability. By analysing both physical and social vulnerability an attempt was made to bridge the gap between scholars from sciences and humanities, and to integrate the results of the analysis into the broader vulnerability context.

Identifying the world's most climate change vulnerable species: a systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals.

PubMed

Foden, Wendy B; Butchart, Stuart H M; Stuart, Simon N; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A; Hughes, Adrian F; O'Hanlon, Susannah E; Garnett, Stephen T; Sekercioğlu, Cagan H; Mace, Georgina M

2013-01-01

Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species' biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world's birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608-851 bird (6-9%), 670-933 amphibian (11-15%), and 47-73 coral species (6-9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts.

Identifying the World's Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds, Amphibians and Corals

PubMed Central

Foden, Wendy B.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Stuart, Simon N.; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M.; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D.; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A.; Hughes, Adrian F.; O’Hanlon, Susannah E.; Garnett, Stephen T.; Şekercioğlu, Çagan H.; Mace, Georgina M.

2013-01-01

Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts. PMID:23950785

Integration of social dimension in an index oriented methodology for consequence analysis of natural hazards: application to the Upper Guil Catchment (Southern French Alps)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlier, Benoit; Puissant, Anne; Dujarric, Constance

2017-04-01

Vulnerability assessment together with hazard exposure is generally accepted as the two main steps of risk analysis. If quantitative methods to estimate hazard exposure are now well-defined, it is not the case regarding vulnerability assessment. Vulnerability is a complex concept involving a variety of disciplines from physical and socio-economic sciences (i.e. engineering, economics, social and health sciences etc.). Currently, two opposite trends exist: the 'physical' approach in which vulnerability is analysed as potential impacts (i.e. structural and functional) on the elements at risk (building, network, land cover); and the 'social' approach in which vulnerability is a combination of socio-economic variables determining people's ability to anticipate before a catastrophic event, to react during it, and to recover after it. For a complete analysis of vulnerability it is essential to combine these two approaches but in reality few works exists. The objective of this research is to improve the Potential Damage Index (PDI), detailed in Puissant el al. (2013), originally developed to assess physical injury, structural and functional consequences of landslide hazard, by including socio-economic characteristics of population information. Data from the French Census data (INSEE, 2012) and a survey on risk perception (100 questionnaires obtained between 2014 and 2015/16) were used to propose an overall index taking into account the three main phases of risk management: preparedness, crisis management and recovery. This new index called Global Potential Damage Index (GPDI) is applied on the Upper Guil Catchment to assess potential torrential floods hazard in the context of the French funded project SAMCO (Society Adaptation for coping with Mountain risks in a global change Context). Results of the PDI are compared with the GPDI and show significant differences. GPDI scores mapping are lower than PDI scores indicating that resilient population may qualify results obtained for physical consequences. In GPDI the social and institutional component is expressed by a unique value applied for the overall stakes of a same community. Consequently, socio-economics differences between Upper Guil catchments communities are highlighted and make results easily understandable for local manager.

Comparing factors of vulnerability and resilience of mountain communities affected by landslides in Eastern Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen; Dubois, Jerome; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2010-05-01

This paper describes a methodology for assessing and quantifying vulnerability and resilience of mountain communities in Eastern Nepal increasingly affected by landslides and flooding. We are interested in improving our understanding of the complex interactions between land use, landslides and multiple dimensions of risk, vulnerability and resilience to better target risk management strategies. Our approach is based on assessing underlying social, ecological and physical factors that cause vulnerability and on the other hand, those resources and capacities that increase resilience. Increasing resilience to disasters is frequently used by NGOs, governments and donors as the main goal of disaster risk reduction policies and practices. If we are to increase resilience to disasters, we need better guidance and tools for defining, assessing and monitoring its parameters. To do so, we are establishing a methodology for quantifying and mapping an index of resilience to compare resilience factors between households and communities based on interdisciplinary research methods: remote sensing, GIS, qualitative and quantitative risk assessments, participatory risk mapping, household questionnaires and focus groups discussions. Our study applied this methodology to several communities in Eastern Nepal where small, frequent landslides are greatly affecting rural lives and livelihoods. These landslides are not captured by headlines or official statistics but are examples of cumulative, hidden disasters, which are impacting everyday life and rural poverty in the Himalayas. Based on experience, marginalized populations are often aware of the physical risks and the limitations of their land. However, they continue to live in dangerous places out of necessity and for the economic or infrastructure opportunities offered. We compare two communities in Nepal, both affected by landslides but with different land use, migration patterns, education levels, social networks, risk reduction and coping strategies. Stone quarrying and road construction, offering economic opportunities, are aggravating landslide problems. The villages are faced with a delicate balance between economic development and physical risk in this fragile terrain. Based on our comparison, we discern which factors contribute to vulnerability and resilience, while drawing conclusions about the limitations of these concepts for developing risk management strategies. Our goal is to keep this method relatively simple, low cost and useful to decision-makers and communities for managing and designing integrated development and risk management approaches under changing climate conditions.

Tsunami vulnerability assessment mapping for the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia using a geographical information system (GIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najihah, R.; Effendi, D. M.; Hairunnisa, M. A.; Masiri, K.

2014-02-01

The catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 raised a number of questions for scientist and politicians on how to deal with the tsunami risk and assessment in coastal regions. This paper discusses the challenges in tsunami vulnerability assessment and presents the result of tsunami disaster mapping and vulnerability assessment study for West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The spatial analysis was carried out using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology to demarcate spatially the tsunami affected village's boundary and suitable disaster management program can be quickly and easily developed. In combination with other thematic maps such as road maps, rail maps, school maps, and topographic map sheets it was possible to plan the accessibility and shelter to the affected people. The tsunami vulnerability map was used to identify the vulnerability of villages/village population to tsunami. In the tsunami vulnerability map, the intensity of the tsunami was classified as hazard zones based on the inundation level in meter (contour). The approach produced a tsunami vulnerability assessment map consists of considering scenarios of plausible extreme, tsunami-generating events, computing the tsunami inundation levels caused by different events and scenarios and estimating the possible range of casualties for computing inundation levels. The study provides an interactive means to identify the tsunami affected areas after the disaster and mapping the tsunami vulnerable village before for planning purpose were the essential exercises for managing future disasters.

Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species’ climate-change vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wade, Alisa A.; Hand, Brian K.; Kovach, Ryan; Luikart, Gordon; Whited, Diane; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

2016-01-01

Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species’ vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. Here, we provide a more comprehensive CCVA approach that incorporates all three elements used for assessing species’ climate change vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We illustrate our approach using case studies of two threatened salmonids with different life histories – anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and non-anadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) – within the Columbia River Basin, USA. We identified general patterns of high vulnerability in low-elevation and southernmost habitats for both species. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the two species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multi-species conservation. Our results highlight how CCVAs should be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework for refining hypotheses, guiding research, and comparing plausible scenarios of species’ vulnerability for ongoing and projected climate change.

Is Violent Radicalisation Associated with Poverty, Migration, Poor Self-Reported Health and Common Mental Disorders?

PubMed Central

Bhui, Kamaldeep; Warfa, Nasir; Jones, Edgar

2014-01-01

Background Doctors, lawyers and criminal justice agencies need methods to assess vulnerability to violent radicalization. In synergy, public health interventions aim to prevent the emergence of risk behaviours as well as prevent and treat new illness events. This paper describes a new method of assessing vulnerability to violent radicalization, and then investigates the role of previously reported causes, including poor self-reported health, anxiety and depression, adverse life events, poverty, and migration and socio-political factors. The aim is to identify foci for preventive intervention. Methods A cross-sectional survey of a representative population sample of men and women aged 18–45, of Muslim heritage and recruited by quota sampling by age, gender, working status, in two English cities. The main outcomes include self-reported health, symptoms of anxiety and depression (common mental disorders), and vulnerability to violent radicalization assessed by sympathies for violent protest and terrorist acts. Results 2.4% of people showed some sympathy for violent protest and terrorist acts. Sympathy was more likely to be articulated by the under 20s, those in full time education rather than employment, those born in the UK, those speaking English at home, and high earners (>£75,000 a year). People with poor self-reported health were less likely to show sympathies for violent protest and terrorism. Anxiety and depressive symptoms, adverse life events and socio-political attitudes showed no associations. Conclusions Sympathies for violent protest and terrorism were uncommon among men and women, aged 18–45, of Muslim heritage living in two English cities. Youth, wealth, and being in education rather than employment were risk factors. PMID:24599058

6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.240 Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and... 6 Domestic Security 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability...

6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.240 Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and... 6 Domestic Security 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability...

6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.240 Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and... 6 Domestic Security 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability...

6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.240 Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and... 6 Domestic Security 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability...

Using fuzzy logic to determine the vulnerability of marine species to climate change.

PubMed

Jones, Miranda C; Cheung, William W L

2018-02-01

Marine species are being impacted by climate change and ocean acidification, although their level of vulnerability varies due to differences in species' sensitivity, adaptive capacity and exposure to climate hazards. Due to limited data on the biological and ecological attributes of many marine species, as well as inherent uncertainties in the assessment process, climate change vulnerability assessments in the marine environment frequently focus on a limited number of taxa or geographic ranges. As climate change is already impacting marine biodiversity and fisheries, there is an urgent need to expand vulnerability assessment to cover a large number of species and areas. Here, we develop a modelling approach to synthesize data on species-specific estimates of exposure, and ecological and biological traits to undertake an assessment of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and risk of impacts (combining exposure to hazards and vulnerability) of climate change (including ocean acidification) for global marine fishes and invertebrates. We use a fuzzy logic approach to accommodate the variability in data availability and uncertainties associated with inferring vulnerability levels from climate projections and species' traits. Applying the approach to estimate the relative vulnerability and risk of impacts of climate change in 1074 exploited marine species globally, we estimated their index of vulnerability and risk of impacts to be on average 52 ± 19 SD and 66 ± 11 SD, scaling from 1 to 100, with 100 being the most vulnerable and highest risk, respectively, under the 'business-as-usual' greenhouse gas emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). We identified 157 species to be highly vulnerable while 294 species are identified as being at high risk of impacts. Species that are most vulnerable tend to be large-bodied endemic species. This study suggests that the fuzzy logic framework can help estimate climate vulnerabilities and risks of exploited marine species using publicly and readily available information. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

CALTRANS CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-01-01

The following report was developed for the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) to summarize a vulnerability assessment conducted for assets in Caltrans District 4. The assessment was developed to specifically identify the potential eff...

Tsunami vulnerability and damage assessment in the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atillah, A.; El Hadani, D.; Moudni, H.; Lesne, O.; Renou, C.; Mangin, A.; Rouffi, F.

2011-12-01

This study, a companion paper to Renou et al. (2011), focuses on the application of a GIS-based method to assess building vulnerability and damage in the event of a tsunami affecting the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco. This approach, designed within the framework of the European SCHEMA project (www.schemaproject.org) is based on the combination of hazard results from numerical modelling of the worst case tsunami scenario (inundation depth) based on the historical Lisbon earthquake of 1755 and the Portugal earthquake of 1969, together with vulnerability building types derived from Earth Observation data, field surveys and GIS data. The risk is then evaluated for this highly concentrated population area characterized by the implementation of a vast project of residential and touristic buildings within the flat area of the Bouregreg Valley separating the cities of Rabat and Salé. A GIS tool is used to derive building damage maps by crossing layers of inundation levels and building vulnerability. The inferred damage maps serve as a base for elaborating evacuation plans with appropriate rescue and relief processes and to prepare and consider appropriate measures to prevent the induced tsunami risk.

Exposure and Vulnerability Geospatial Analysis Using Earth Observation Data in the City of Liege, Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephenne, N.; Beaumont, B.; Hallot, E.; Lenartz, F.; Lefebre, F.; Lauwaet, D.; Poelmans, L.; Wolff, E.

2017-05-01

Risk situation can be mitigated by prevention measures, early warning tools and adequate monitoring of past experiences where Earth Observation and geospatial analysis have an adding value. This paper discusses the potential use of Earth Observation data and especially Land Cover / Land Use map in addressing within the three aspects of the risk assessment: danger, exposure and vulnerability. Evidences of the harmful effects of air pollution or heat waves are widely admitted and should increase in the context of global warming. Moreover, urban areas are generally warmer than rural surroundings, the so-called urban heat island. Combined with in-situ measurements, this paper presents models of city or local climate (air pollution and urban heat island), with a resolution of less than one kilometer, developed by integrating several sources of information including Earth Observation data and in particular Land Cover / Land Use. This assessment of the danger is then be related to a map of exposure and vulnerable people. Using dasymetric method to disaggregate statistical information on Land Cover / Land Use data, the SmartPop project analyzes in parallel the map of danger with the maps of people exposure A special focus on some categories at risk such as the elderly has been proposed by Aubrecht and Ozceylan (2013). Perspectives of the project includes the integration of a new Land Cover / Land Use map in the danger, exposure and vulnerability models and proposition of several aspects of risk assessment with the stakeholders of Wallonia.

The drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhiqiang; Jiang, Jingyi; Ma, Qing

2016-12-01

Climate change is affecting every aspect of human activities, especially the agriculture. In China, extreme drought events caused by climate change have posed a great threat to food safety. In this work we aimed to study the drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment. The physical vulnerability curve was constructed from the relationship between drought hazard intensity index and yield loss rate. The risk assessment of agricultural drought was conducted from the drought hazard intensity index and physical vulnerability curve. The probability distribution of drought hazard intensity index decreased from south-west to north-east and increased from south-east to north-west along the rainfall isoline. The physical vulnerability curve had a reduction effect in three parts of the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China, which helped to reduce drought hazard vulnerability on spring maize. The risk of yield loss ratio calculated based on physical vulnerability curve was lower compared with the drought hazard intensity index, which suggested that the capacity of spring maize to resist and adapt to drought is increasing. In conclusion, the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China is greatly sensitive to climate change and has a high probability of severe drought hazard. Risk assessment of physical vulnerability can help better understand the physical vulnerability to agricultural drought and can also promote measurements to adapt to climate change.

Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability at the Local Level: A Case Study on the Dniester River Basin (Moldova)

PubMed Central

Sîrodoev, Igor; Koeppel, Sonja; Denisov, Nickolai; Sîrodoev, Ghennadi

2013-01-01

Vulnerability to climate change of the Moldavian part of the Dniester river was assessed as the function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of its basin's natural and socioeconomic systems. As a spatial “scale” of the assessment, Moldova's administrative-territorial units (ATUs) were selected. The exposure assessment was based on the climatic analysis of baseline (1971–2000) temperature and precipitation and projections of their changes in 2021–2050, separately for cold and warm periods. The sensitivity assessment included physiographical and socioeconomic characteristics, described by a set of specific indicators. The adaptive capacity was expressed by general economic and agricultural indicators, taking into consideration the medical provision and housing conditions. Through a ranking approach, the relative vulnerability of each ATU was calculated by summing its sensitivity and adaptive capacity ranks; the latter were obtained as combinations of their primary indicator ranks, arranged in an increasing and decreasing order, respectively. Due to lack of sound knowledge on these components' importance in overall assessment of vulnerability, their weights were taken as conventionally equal. Mapping of vulnerability revealed that ATUs neighboring to municipalities are the most vulnerable and need special attention in climate change adaptation. The basin's “hotspots” were discussed with public participation. PMID:23766677

SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY

EPA Science Inventory

It is expected that this research will yield methods for operationalizing and assessing the presence of factors of resilience in social-ecological systems, as well as further understanding on the relationship between vulnerability, adaptation and resilience. In addition, it...

A vulnerability assessment of 300 species in Florida: threats from sea level rise, land use, and climate change.

PubMed

Reece, Joshua Steven; Noss, Reed F; Oetting, Jon; Hoctor, Tom; Volk, Michael

2013-01-01

Species face many threats, including accelerated climate change, sea level rise, and conversion and degradation of habitat from human land uses. Vulnerability assessments and prioritization protocols have been proposed to assess these threats, often in combination with information such as species rarity; ecological, evolutionary or economic value; and likelihood of success. Nevertheless, few vulnerability assessments or prioritization protocols simultaneously account for multiple threats or conservation values. We applied a novel vulnerability assessment tool, the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value, to assess the conservation priority of 300 species of plants and animals in Florida given projections of climate change, human land-use patterns, and sea level rise by the year 2100. We account for multiple sources of uncertainty and prioritize species under five different systems of value, ranging from a primary emphasis on vulnerability to threats to an emphasis on metrics of conservation value such as phylogenetic distinctiveness. Our results reveal remarkable consistency in the prioritization of species across different conservation value systems. Species of high priority include the Miami blue butterfly (Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri), Key tree cactus (Pilosocereus robinii), Florida duskywing butterfly (Ephyriades brunnea floridensis), and Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium). We also identify sources of uncertainty and the types of life history information consistently missing across taxonomic groups. This study characterizes the vulnerabilities to major threats of a broad swath of Florida's biodiversity and provides a system for prioritizing conservation efforts that is quantitative, flexible, and free from hidden value judgments.

On methods for assessing water-resource risks and vulnerabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleick, Peter H.

2015-11-01

Because of the critical role that freshwater plays in maintaining ecosystem health and supporting human development through agricultural and industrial production there have been numerous efforts over the past few decades to develop indicators and indices of water vulnerability. Each of these efforts has tried to identify key factors that both offer insights into water-related risks and strategies that might be useful for reducing those risks. These kinds of assessments have serious limitations associated with data, the complexity of water challenges, and the changing nature of climatic and hydrologic variables. This new letter by Padowski et al (2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 104014) adds to the field by broadening the kinds of measures that should be integrated into such tools, especially in the area of institutional characteristics, and analyzing them in a way that provides new insights into the similarities and differences in water risks facing different countries, but much more can and should be done with new data and methods to improve our understanding of water challenges.

Development and implementation of a Bayesian-based aquifer vulnerability assessment in Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arthur, J.D.; Wood, H.A.R.; Baker, A.E.; Cichon, J.R.; Raines, G.L.

2007-01-01

The Florida Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment (FAVA) was designed to provide a tool for environmental, regulatory, resource management, and planning professionals to facilitate protection of groundwater resources from surface sources of contamination. The FAVA project implements weights-of-evidence (WofE), a data-driven, Bayesian-probabilistic model to generate a series of maps reflecting relative aquifer vulnerability of Florida's principal aquifer systems. The vulnerability assessment process, from project design to map implementation is described herein in reference to the Floridan aquifer system (FAS). The WofE model calculates weighted relationships between hydrogeologic data layers that influence aquifer vulnerability and ambient groundwater parameters in wells that reflect relative degrees of vulnerability. Statewide model input data layers (evidential themes) include soil hydraulic conductivity, density of karst features, thickness of aquifer confinement, and hydraulic head difference between the FAS and the watertable. Wells with median dissolved nitrogen concentrations exceeding statistically established thresholds serve as training points in the WofE model. The resulting vulnerability map (response theme) reflects classified posterior probabilities based on spatial relationships between the evidential themes and training points. The response theme is subjected to extensive sensitivity and validation testing. Among the model validation techniques is calculation of a response theme based on a different water-quality indicator of relative recharge or vulnerability: dissolved oxygen. Successful implementation of the FAVA maps was facilitated by the overall project design, which included a needs assessment and iterative technical advisory committee input and review. Ongoing programs to protect Florida's springsheds have led to development of larger-scale WofE-based vulnerability assessments. Additional applications of the maps include land-use planning amendments and prioritization of land purchases to protect groundwater resources. ?? International Association for Mathematical Geology 2007.

Assessment of Social Vulnerability Identification at Local Level around Merapi Volcano - A Self Organizing Map Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, S.; Maharani, Y. N.; Ki, S. J.

2015-12-01

The application of Self-Organizing Map (SOM) to analyze social vulnerability to recognize the resilience within sites is a challenging tasks. The aim of this study is to propose a computational method to identify the sites according to their similarity and to determine the most relevant variables to characterize the social vulnerability in each cluster. For this purposes, SOM is considered as an effective platform for analysis of high dimensional data. By considering the cluster structure, the characteristic of social vulnerability of the sites identification can be fully understand. In this study, the social vulnerability variable is constructed from 17 variables, i.e. 12 independent variables which represent the socio-economic concepts and 5 dependent variables which represent the damage and losses due to Merapi eruption in 2010. These variables collectively represent the local situation of the study area, based on conducted fieldwork on September 2013. By using both independent and dependent variables, we can identify if the social vulnerability is reflected onto the actual situation, in this case, Merapi eruption 2010. However, social vulnerability analysis in the local communities consists of a number of variables that represent their socio-economic condition. Some of variables employed in this study might be more or less redundant. Therefore, SOM is used to reduce the redundant variable(s) by selecting the representative variables using the component planes and correlation coefficient between variables in order to find the effective sample size. Then, the selected dataset was effectively clustered according to their similarities. Finally, this approach can produce reliable estimates of clustering, recognize the most significant variables and could be useful for social vulnerability assessment, especially for the stakeholder as decision maker. This research was supported by a grant 'Development of Advanced Volcanic Disaster Response System considering Potential Volcanic Risk around Korea' [MPSS-NH-2015-81] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, National Emergency Management Agency of Korea. Keywords: Self-organizing map, Component Planes, Correlation coefficient, Cluster analysis, Sites identification, Social vulnerability, Merapi eruption 2010

Relationships Among Non-Invasive Predictors of Sudden Cardiac Death During Mental Stress and Exercise In Coronary Artery Disease Patients With Known Arrhythmic Vulnerability

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-12-16

because of the high noise of the ECG recordings, which is a subliminal level of physical exertion. Also, over 80% of the participants were on beta...in TWA assessment. As was stated in the Methods section, MMA-TWA was assessed only during the first stage of the exercise, which is a subliminal

Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.

2014-11-01

Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.

Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia

Treesearch

Binita KC; J. Marshall Shepherd; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

2015-01-01

Climate change is occurring in the Southeastern United States, and one manifestation is changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events. A vulnerability assessment is performed in the state of Georgia (United States) at the county level from 1975 to 2012 in decadal increments. Climate change vulnerability is typically measured as a function of exposure to physical...

76 FR 8361 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Submission to OMB for Review and Approval; Comment...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-14

... community water system serving a population of more than 3,300 people to conduct a vulnerability assessment... of the vulnerability assessment. These requirements are mandatory under the statute. EPA will use the information collected under this ICR to determine whether community water systems have conducted vulnerability...

Robustness of Synchrony in Complex Networks and Generalized Kirchhoff Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyloo, M.; Coletta, T.; Jacquod, Ph.

2018-02-01

In network theory, a question of prime importance is how to assess network vulnerability in a fast and reliable manner. With this issue in mind, we investigate the response to external perturbations of coupled dynamical systems on complex networks. We find that for specific, nonaveraged perturbations, the response of synchronous states depends on the eigenvalues of the stability matrix of the unperturbed dynamics, as well as on its eigenmodes via their overlap with the perturbation vector. Once averaged over properly defined ensembles of perturbations, the response is given by new graph topological indices, which we introduce as generalized Kirchhoff indices. These findings allow for a fast and reliable method for assessing the specific or average vulnerability of a network against changing operational conditions, faults, or external attacks.

Ecosystem Vulnerability Review: Proposal of an Interdisciplinary Ecosystem Assessment Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weißhuhn, Peter; Müller, Felix; Wiggering, Hubert

2018-06-01

To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem's vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of ScienceTM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review.

Ecosystem Vulnerability Review: Proposal of an Interdisciplinary Ecosystem Assessment Approach.

PubMed

Weißhuhn, Peter; Müller, Felix; Wiggering, Hubert

2018-06-01

To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem's vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of Science TM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review.

Hydrologic vulnerability of tribal reservation lands across the U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, C., Jr.; Leibowitz, S. G.; Sawicz, K. A.; Comeleo, R. L.; Stratton, L. E.

2017-12-01

We apply the hydrologic landscapes (HL) concept to assess the hydrologic vulnerability to climate of the United States (U.S.) with special emphasis on tribal lands. The basic assumption of the HL approach is that catchments that share similar physical and climatic characteristics are expected to have similar hydrologic characteristics. We map climate vulnerability by integrating a retrospective analysis of historical climate and hydrology into the HL approach, comparing this baseline of variability with future projections of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, climatic moisture, surplus water, and seasonality of the water surplus. Projections that are not within two standard deviations of the historical decadal average contribute to the vulnerability index for each metric. This allows stakeholders and/or water resource managers to understand the potential impacts of future conditions. The resulting vulnerability maps show that temperature and potential evapotranspiration are consistently projected to have high vulnerability indices across the U.S. including all tribal reservations. Precipitation vulnerability is not as spatially-uniform as temperature. Most areas with snow are projected to experience significant changes in future snow accumulation. The seasonality vulnerability map shows that mountainous areas in the West are most prone to changes in seasonality. This paper illustrates how the HL approach can help assess climatic and hydrologic vulnerability for disadvantaged groups across the U.S. By combining the HL concept and climate vulnerability analyses, we provide an approach that can assist tribal resource managers to perform vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans, which is a major priority for the tribes nationwide.

Evaluating aquatic invertebrate vulnerability to insecticides based on intrinsic sensitivity, biological traits, and toxic mode of action.

PubMed

Rico, Andreu; Van den Brink, Paul J

2015-08-01

In the present study, the authors evaluated the vulnerability of aquatic invertebrates to insecticides based on their intrinsic sensitivity and their population-level recovery potential. The relative sensitivity of invertebrates to 5 different classes of insecticides was calculated at the genus, family, and order levels using the acute toxicity data available in the US Environmental Protection Agency ECOTOX database. Biological trait information was linked to the calculated relative sensitivity to evaluate correlations between traits and sensitivity and to calculate a vulnerability index, which combines intrinsic sensitivity and traits describing the recovery potential of populations partially exposed to insecticides (e.g., voltinism, flying strength, occurrence in drift). The analysis shows that the relative sensitivity of arthropods depends on the insecticide mode of action. Traits such as degree of sclerotization, size, and respiration type showed good correlation to sensitivity and can be used to make predictions for invertebrate taxa without a priori sensitivity knowledge. The vulnerability analysis revealed that some of the Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa were vulnerable to all insecticide classes and indicated that particular gastropod and bivalve species were potentially vulnerable. Microcrustaceans (e.g., daphnids, copepods) showed low potential vulnerability, particularly in lentic ecosystems. The methods described in the present study can be used for the selection of focal species to be included as part of ecological scenarios and higher tier risk assessments. © 2015 SETAC.

Vulnerability assessment at a national level in Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, N.; Arabidze, V.; Varazanashvili, O.; Gugeshashvili, T.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment at a national level in Georgia Nino Tsereteli, Vakhtang Arabidze, Otar Varazanashvili, Tengiz Gugeshashvili The risk always exists when cities are built on. Population growth in cities and urbanization in natural hazard-prone zones leads to infrastructure expansion. The goal of the society is to construct natural hazards resistant infrastructure and minimize the expected losses. This is a complicated task as there is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard and vulnerability. Assessment of vulnerability is vital in risk analysis, as vulnerability is defined in many different ways. Work presented here mostly deals with assessment of infrastructure's and population vulnerability at national level in Georgia. This work was initiated by NATO SFP project "seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Southern Caucasus - Eastern Turkey Energy Corridors" and the two work packages WP4 (seismic risk) and WP5 (city scenarios) of risk module of EMME (Earthquake Model of the Middle East Region) project. First step was creation databases (inventory) of elements at risk in GIS. Element at risk were the buildings, population, pipelines. The inventories was studied and Created in GIS for the following categories: Building material, number of stories, number of entrances, condition of building, building period. For pipelines pipe tipe (continous or segmented), material, pipe diameter. Very important is to estimate the initial cost of building for assessment of economic losses. From this purpose the attempt was done and the algorithm of this estimation were prepared taking into account obtained the inventory. Build quality, reliability and durability are of special importance to corresponding state agencies and include different aesthetic, engineering, practical, social, technological and economical aspects. The necessity that all of these aspects satisfy existing normative requirements becomes evident as the building and structures come into exploitation. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finely some attempt was done to investigate how these structures were damaged by various hazards. In other words vulnerability curves were constrained on the basis on the relation between various hazard intensities and damage data.

Factors influencing to earthquake caused economical losses on urban territories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurtaev, B.; Khakimov, S.

2005-12-01

Questions of assessment of earthquake economical losses on urban territories of Uzbekistan, taking into account damage forming factors, which are increqasing or reducing economical losses were discussed in the paper. Buildings and facilities vulnerability factors were classified. From total value (equal to 50) were selected most important ones. Factors ranging by level of impact and weight function in loss assessment were ranged. One group of damage forming factors includs seismic hazard assessment, design, construction and maintenance of building and facilities. Other one is formed by city planning characteristics and includes : density of constructions and population, area of soft soils, existence of liquefaction susceptible soils and etc. To all these factors has been given weight functions and interval values by groups. Methodical recomendations for loss asessment taking into account above mentioned factors were developed. It gives possibility to carry out preventive measures for protection of vulnerable territories, to differentiate cost assessment of each region in relation with territory peculiarity and damage value. Using developed method we have ranged cities by risk level. It has allowed to establish ratings of the general vulnerability of urban territories of cities and on their basis to make optimum decisions, oriented to loss mitigation and increase of safety of population. Besides the technique can be used by insurance companies for estimated zoning of territory, development of effective utilization schema of land resources, rational town-planning, an economic estimation of used territory for supply with information of the various works connected to an estimation of seismic hazard. Further improvement of technique of establishment of rating of cities by level of damage from earthquakes will allow to increase quality of construction, rationality of accommodation of buildings, will be an economic stimulator for increasing of seismic resistance of building.

The relevance of work-related learning for vulnerable groups. Dutch case study of a Health Impact Assessment with equity focus.

PubMed

Storm, Ilse; Uiters, Ellen; Busch, Mirjam C M; den Broeder, Lea; Schuit, Albertine J

2015-07-01

Learning is essential for sustainable employability. However, various factors make work-related learning more difficult for certain groups of workers, who are consequently at a disadvantage in the labour market. In the long term, that in turn can have adverse health implications and can make those groups vulnerable. With a view to encouraging workers to continue learning, the Netherlands has a policy on work-related learning, which forms part of the 'Vitality Package'. A Health Impact Assessment with equity focus (HIAef) was undertaken to determine whether the policy on work-related learning affected certain groups of workers and their health in different ways, and whether the differences were avoidable. The HIAef method involved the standard phases: screening, scoping, appraisal and recommendations. Equity was the core principle in this method. Data were collected by means of both literature searches (e.g., Scopus, Medline) and interviews with experts and stakeholders (e.g., expertise regarding work, training and/or health). The HIAef identified the following groups as potentially vulnerable in the field of work-related learning: the chronically sick, older people, less educated people, flexi-workers/the self-employed and lay carers (e.g., thresholds to learning). Published literature indicates that work-related learning may have a positive influence on health through (work-related) factors such as pay, employability, longer employment rate and training-participation. According to experts and stakeholders, work-related learning policy could be adapted to take more account of vulnerable groups through alignment with their particular needs, such as early support, informal learning and e-learning. With a view to reducing avoidable inequalities in work-related learning, it is recommended that early, low-threshold, accessible opportunities are made available to identified vulnerable groups. Making such opportunities available may have a positive effect on (continued) participation in the labour market and thus on the health of the relevant groups. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment of drought disaster in southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.

2015-12-01

Abstract: Drought has become an increasing concern in southern China, but the drought risk has not been adequately studied. This study presents a method for the spatial assessment of drought risk in southern China using a conceptual framework that emphasizes the combined role of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure.A drought hazard map was retrieved with a compound index of meteorological drought method in a GIS environment. Normally, a large variation in the disaster-inducing factor implies a high probability of economic/social losses caused by a drought disaster. The map indicated that areas with a higher risk of drought hazard were mainly distributed in mid-east Yunnan and the basins in eastern Sichuan.The vulnerability indices were based on climate factors as well as land use, geomorphological types, soil properties, and drainage density. The water preserving capability of purple calcareous soil in the basins in Sichuan and mid-east Yunnan, and the lateritic red soil in northeastern Guangdong is relatively weak. The main geomorphological features in Guangxi and Guangdong are hills, which leads to a serious expectation of soil and water losses. Thus, the main areas with a high risk of drought vulnerability are mid-east Yunnan and the basins in eastern Sichuan.The exposure indices were based on population density and agricultural production because population and agriculture experience the main impacts of a drought disaster. Higher exposure indices mean higher economic/social losses due to drought disasters. Areas with high exposure indices were mainly distributed in Guangdong and southern Guangxi.The overall risk was then calculated as the product of the hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. The results indicated a higher risk of drought disaster in the basins in eastern Sichuan,, northeastern Yunnan, and northeastern Guangdong. The main factor influencing the risk of a drought disaster was the hazard, but the vulnerability and exposure also played important roles.

Assessment of physical vulnerability of buildings and analysis of landslide risk at the municipal scale: application to the Loures municipality, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillard-Gonçalves, C.; Zêzere, J. L.; Pereira, S.; Garcia, R. A. C.

2016-02-01

This study offers a semi-quantitative assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings to landslides in a Portuguese municipality (Loures), as well as the quantitative landslide risk analysis computed as the product of the landslide hazard by the vulnerability and the economic value of the buildings. The hazard was assessed by combining the spatiotemporal probability and the frequency-magnitude relationship of the landslides. The physical vulnerability assessment was based on an inquiry of a pool of European landslide experts and a sub-pool of landslide experts who know the study area, and the answers' variability was assessed with standard deviation. The average vulnerability of the basic geographic entities was compared by changing the map unit and applying the vulnerability to all the buildings of a test site, the inventory of which was listed on the field. The economic value was calculated using an adaptation of the Portuguese Tax Services approach, and the risk was computed for different landslide magnitudes and different spatiotemporal probabilities. As a rule, the vulnerability values given by the sub-pool of experts who know the study area are higher than those given by the European experts, namely for the high-magnitude landslides. The obtained vulnerabilities vary from 0.2 to 1 as a function of the structural building types and the landslide magnitude, and are maximal for 10 and 20 m landslide depths. However, the highest risk was found for the landslides that are 3 m deep, because these landslides combine a relatively high frequency in the Loures municipality with a substantial potential damage.

Statistics of software vulnerability detection in certification testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barabanov, A. V.; Markov, A. S.; Tsirlov, V. L.

2018-05-01

The paper discusses practical aspects of introduction of the methods to detect software vulnerability in the day-to-day activities of the accredited testing laboratory. It presents the approval results of the vulnerability detection methods as part of the study of the open source software and the software that is a test object of the certification tests under information security requirements, including software for communication networks. Results of the study showing the allocation of identified vulnerabilities by types of attacks, country of origin, programming languages used in the development, methods for detecting vulnerability, etc. are given. The experience of foreign information security certification systems related to the detection of certified software vulnerabilities is analyzed. The main conclusion based on the study is the need to implement practices for developing secure software in the development life cycle processes. The conclusions and recommendations for the testing laboratories on the implementation of the vulnerability analysis methods are laid down.

Advances in volcano monitoring and risk reduction in Latin America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCausland, W. A.; White, R. A.; Lockhart, A. B.; Marso, J. N.; Assitance Program, V. D.; Volcano Observatories, L. A.

2014-12-01

We describe results of cooperative work that advanced volcanic monitoring and risk reduction. The USGS-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) was initiated in 1986 after disastrous lahars during the 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz dramatizedthe need to advance international capabilities in volcanic monitoring, eruption forecasting and hazard communication. For the past 28 years, VDAP has worked with our partners to improve observatories, strengthen monitoring networks, and train observatory personnel. We highlight a few of the many accomplishments by Latin American volcano observatories. Advances in monitoring, assessment and communication, and lessons learned from the lahars of the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz eruption and the 1994 Paez earthquake enabled the Servicio Geológico Colombiano to issue timely, life-saving warnings for 3 large syn-eruptive lahars at Nevado del Huila in 2007 and 2008. In Chile, the 2008 eruption of Chaitén prompted SERNAGEOMIN to complete a national volcanic vulnerability assessment that led to a major increase in volcano monitoring. Throughout Latin America improved seismic networks now telemeter data to observatories where the decades-long background rates and types of seismicity have been characterized at over 50 volcanoes. Standardization of the Earthworm data acquisition system has enabled data sharing across international boundaries, of paramount importance during both regional tectonic earthquakes and during volcanic crises when vulnerabilities cross international borders. Sharing of seismic forecasting methods led to the formation of the international organization of Latin American Volcano Seismologists (LAVAS). LAVAS courses and other VDAP training sessions have led to international sharing of methods to forecast eruptions through recognition of precursors and to reduce vulnerabilities from all volcano hazards (flows, falls, surges, gas) through hazard assessment, mapping and modeling. Satellite remote sensing data-sharing facilitatescross-border identification and warnings of ash plumes for aviation. Overall, long-term strategies of data collection and experience-sharing have helped Latin American observatories improve their monitoring and create informed communities cognizant of vulnerabilities inherent in living near volcanoes.

Adapting to climate change

Treesearch

Constance I. Millar; Christopher W. Swanston; David L. Peterson

2014-01-01

Federal agencies have led the development of adaptation principles and tools in forest ecosystems over the past decade. Successful adaptation efforts generally require organizations to: (1) develop science-management partnerships, (2) provide education on climate change science, (3) provide a toolkit of methods and processes for vulnerability assessment and adaptation...

Development of decision support tools to assess pedestrian and bicycle safety : focus on population, demographic and socio-economic spectra.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-06-30

Despite the increase of these non-motorized trips, bicyclists and pedestrians remain vulnerable road users that are often over represented in traffic crashes. While the currently used methods that identify hazardous locations serve their purpose well...

Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Using a Systems Analysis Approach to Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legg, M.; Eguchi, R. T.

2015-12-01

The earthquake hazard mitigation goal is to reduce losses due to severe natural events. The first step is to conduct a Seismic Risk Assessment consisting of 1) hazard estimation, 2) vulnerability analysis, 3) exposure compilation. Seismic hazards include ground deformation, shaking, and inundation. The hazard estimation may be probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is generally applied to site-specific Risk assessments, but may involve large areas as in a National Seismic Hazard Mapping program. Deterministic hazard assessments are needed for geographically distributed exposure such as lifelines (infrastructure), but may be important for large communities. Vulnerability evaluation includes quantification of fragility for construction or components including personnel. Exposure represents the existing or planned construction, facilities, infrastructure, and population in the affected area. Risk (expected loss) is the product of the quantified hazard, vulnerability (damage algorithm), and exposure which may be used to prepare emergency response plans, retrofit existing construction, or use community planning to avoid hazards. The risk estimate provides data needed to acquire earthquake insurance to assist with effective recovery following a severe event. Earthquake Scenarios used in Deterministic Risk Assessments provide detailed information on where hazards may be most severe, what system components are most susceptible to failure, and to evaluate the combined effects of a severe earthquake to the whole system or community. Casualties (injuries and death) have been the primary factor in defining building codes for seismic-resistant construction. Economic losses may be equally significant factors that can influence proactive hazard mitigation. Large urban earthquakes may produce catastrophic losses due to a cascading of effects often missed in PSHA. Economic collapse may ensue if damaged workplaces, disruption of utilities, and resultant loss of income produces widespread default on payments. With increased computational power and more complete inventories of exposure, Monte Carlo methods may provide more accurate estimation of severe losses and the opportunity to increase resilience of vulnerable systems and communities.

The Future of Risk Analysis: Operationalizing Living Vulnerability Assessments from the Cloud to the Street (and Back)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tellman, B.; Schwarz, B.; Kuhn, C.; Pandey, B.; Schank, C.; Sullivan, J.; Mahtta, R.; Hammet, L.

2016-12-01

21 million people are exposed to flooding every year, and that number is expected to more than double by 2030 due to climate, land use, and demographic change. Cloud to Street, a mission driven science organization, is working to make big and real time data more meaningful to understand both biophysical and social vulnerability to flooding in this changing world. This talk will showcase the science and practice we have built of integrated social and biophysical flood vulnerability assessments based on our work in Uttarakhand, India and Senegal, in conjunction with nonprofits and development banks. We will show developments of our global historical flood database, detected from MODIS and Landsat satellites, used to power machine learning flood exposure models in Google Earth Engine's API. Demonstrating the approach, we will also showcase new approaches in social vulnerability science, from developing data-driven social vulnerability indices in India, to deriving predictive models that explain the social conditions that lead to disproportionate flood damage and fatality in the US. While this talk will draw on examples of completed vulnerability assessments, we will also discuss the possible future for place-based "living" flood vulnerability assessments that are updated each time satellites circle the earth or people add crowd-sourced observations about flood events and social conditions.

Assess and Adapt: Coordinated Ecoregional Forest Vulnerability Assessments Covering the Upper Midwest and Northeast in Support of Climate-informed Decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swanston, C.; Janowiak, M.; Handler, S.; Butler, P.; Brandt, L.; Iverson, L.; Thompson, F.; Ontl, T.; Shannon, D.

2016-12-01

Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessments are rapidly becoming an integral component of forest management planning, in which there is increasing public expectation that even near-term activities explicitly incorporate information about anticipated climate impacts and risks. There is a clear desire among forest managers for targeted assessments that address critical questions about species and ecosystem vulnerabilities while delivering this information in an accessible format. We developed the Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment Approach (EVAA), which combines multiple quantitative models, expert elicitation from scientists and land managers, and a templated report structure oriented to natural resource managers. The report structure includes relevant information on the contemporary landscape, past climate, future climate projections, impact model results, and a transparent vulnerability assessment of species and ecosystems. We have used EVAA in seven ecoregional assessments covering 246 million acres of forestland across the upper Midwest and Northeast (www.forestadaptation.org; five published, two in review). We convened a panel of local forest ecology and management experts in each assessment area to examine projected climate effects on system drivers, stressors, and dominant species, as well as the current adaptive capacity of the major ecoregional forest ecosystems. The panels provided a qualitative assessment of the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change over the next century. Over 130 authors from dozens of organizations collaborated on these peer-reviewed assessment publications, which are delivered to thousands of stakeholders through live and recorded webinars, online briefs, and in-person trainings and seminars. The assessments are designed to be used with the Adaptation Workbook (www.adaptationworkbook.org), a planning tool that works at multiple scales and has generated more than 200 real-world forest adaptation demonstration projects.

A System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species (SAVS) to Climate Change

Treesearch

Karen E. Bagne; Megan M. Friggens; Deborah M. Finch

2011-01-01

Sustained conservation of species requires integration of future climate change effects, but few tools exist to assist managers. The System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species (SAVS) identifies the relative vulnerability or resilience of vertebrate species to climate change. Designed for managers, the SAVS is an easily applied tool that uses a questionnaire of 22...

Mapping eco-environmental vulnerability patterns: An assessment framework based on remote sensing, GIS, and AHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Li, M. H.

2016-12-01

The motivation for this study is assessment of the eco-environment vulnerability based on four independent determinants: hydro-meteorology, topography, land resources, and human activities. An assessment framework is proposed to assess the vulnerable eco-environment by using 16 variables with 6 of them constructed from Landsat 8 satellite images. The remaining variables were extracted from digital maps. Each variable was evaluated and spatially mapped with the aid of an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographical information system (GIS). The Thua Thien - Hue Province that has been experiencing natural disasters and urbanization in the recent decades is selected as our study area. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerable levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities, representing 14%, 27%, 17%, 26%, 13%, 3% of the study area, respectively. It is found that heavy and very heavy vulnerable areas appear mainly in the low and medium lands with high intensification of social-economic activities and often suffer from flooding. Tiny percentages of medium and heavy vulnerable levels occur in high land areas probably caused by agricultural practices in highlands, slash and burn cultivation and removal of natural forests with new plantation forests and these regions are usually influenced by landslides, flash flooding. Based on our results, three ecological zones requiring different development and protection solutions are proposed to restore local eco-environment toward sustainable development. Our findings support the idea that eco-environmental vulnerability is driven by anthropogenic processes and enhanced by natural disaster in the Thua Thien-Hue Province.

Addressing uncertainty in vulnerability assessments [Chapter 5

Treesearch

Linda Joyce; Molly Cross; Evan Girvatz

2011-01-01

This chapter addresses issues and approaches for dealing with uncertainty specifically within the context of conducting climate change vulnerability assessments (i.e., uncertainties related to identifying and modeling the sensitivities, levels of exposure, and adaptive capacity of the assessment targets).

A Vulnerability Assessment of 300 Species in Florida: Threats from Sea Level Rise, Land Use, and Climate Change

PubMed Central

Reece, Joshua Steven; Noss, Reed F.; Oetting, Jon; Hoctor, Tom; Volk, Michael

2013-01-01

Species face many threats, including accelerated climate change, sea level rise, and conversion and degradation of habitat from human land uses. Vulnerability assessments and prioritization protocols have been proposed to assess these threats, often in combination with information such as species rarity; ecological, evolutionary or economic value; and likelihood of success. Nevertheless, few vulnerability assessments or prioritization protocols simultaneously account for multiple threats or conservation values. We applied a novel vulnerability assessment tool, the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value, to assess the conservation priority of 300 species of plants and animals in Florida given projections of climate change, human land-use patterns, and sea level rise by the year 2100. We account for multiple sources of uncertainty and prioritize species under five different systems of value, ranging from a primary emphasis on vulnerability to threats to an emphasis on metrics of conservation value such as phylogenetic distinctiveness. Our results reveal remarkable consistency in the prioritization of species across different conservation value systems. Species of high priority include the Miami blue butterfly (Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri), Key tree cactus (Pilosocereus robinii), Florida duskywing butterfly (Ephyriades brunnea floridensis), and Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium). We also identify sources of uncertainty and the types of life history information consistently missing across taxonomic groups. This study characterizes the vulnerabilities to major threats of a broad swath of Florida’s biodiversity and provides a system for prioritizing conservation efforts that is quantitative, flexible, and free from hidden value judgments. PMID:24260447

Use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index as an Assessment Tool for Reptiles and Amphibians: Lessons Learned.

PubMed

Tuberville, Tracey D; Andrews, Kimberly M; Sperry, Jinelle H; Grosse, Andrew M

2015-10-01

Climate change threatens biodiversity globally, yet it can be challenging to predict which species may be most vulnerable. Given the scope of the problem, it is imperative to rapidly assess vulnerability and identify actions to decrease risk. Although a variety of tools have been developed to assess climate change vulnerability, few have been evaluated with regard to their suitability for certain taxonomic groups. Due to their ectothermic physiology, low vagility, and strong association with temporary wetlands, reptiles and amphibians may be particularly vulnerable relative to other groups. Here, we evaluate use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to assess a large suite of herpetofauna from the Sand Hills Ecoregion of the southeastern United States. Although data were frequently lacking for certain variables (e.g., phenological response to climate change, genetic variation), sufficient data were available to evaluate all 117 species. Sensitivity analyses indicated that results were highly dependent on size of assessment area and climate scenario selection. In addition, several ecological traits common in, but relatively unique to, herpetofauna are likely to contribute to their vulnerability and need special consideration during the scoring process. Despite some limitations, the NatureServe CCVI was a useful tool for screening large numbers of reptile and amphibian species. We provide general recommendations as to how the CCVI tool's application to herpetofauna can be improved through more specific guidance to the user regarding how to incorporate unique physiological and behavioral traits into scoring existing sensitivity factors and through modification to the assessment tool itself.

Use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index as an Assessment Tool for Reptiles and Amphibians: Lessons Learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuberville, Tracey D.; Andrews, Kimberly M.; Sperry, Jinelle H.; Grosse, Andrew M.

2015-10-01

Climate change threatens biodiversity globally, yet it can be challenging to predict which species may be most vulnerable. Given the scope of the problem, it is imperative to rapidly assess vulnerability and identify actions to decrease risk. Although a variety of tools have been developed to assess climate change vulnerability, few have been evaluated with regard to their suitability for certain taxonomic groups. Due to their ectothermic physiology, low vagility, and strong association with temporary wetlands, reptiles and amphibians may be particularly vulnerable relative to other groups. Here, we evaluate use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to assess a large suite of herpetofauna from the Sand Hills Ecoregion of the southeastern United States. Although data were frequently lacking for certain variables (e.g., phenological response to climate change, genetic variation), sufficient data were available to evaluate all 117 species. Sensitivity analyses indicated that results were highly dependent on size of assessment area and climate scenario selection. In addition, several ecological traits common in, but relatively unique to, herpetofauna are likely to contribute to their vulnerability and need special consideration during the scoring process. Despite some limitations, the NatureServe CCVI was a useful tool for screening large numbers of reptile and amphibian species. We provide general recommendations as to how the CCVI tool's application to herpetofauna can be improved through more specific guidance to the user regarding how to incorporate unique physiological and behavioral traits into scoring existing sensitivity factors and through modification to the assessment tool itself.

An allometric approach to quantify the extinction vulnerability of birds and mammals.

PubMed

Hilbers, J P; Schipper, A M; Hendriks, A J; Verones, F; Pereira, H M; Huijbregts, M A J

2016-03-01

Methods to quantify the vulnerability of species to extinction are typically limited by the availability of species-specific input data pertaining to life-history characteristics and population dynamics. This lack of data hampers global biodiversity assessments and conservation planning. Here, we developed a new framework that systematically quantifies extinction risk based on allometric relationships between various wildlife demographic parameters and body size. These allometric relationships have a solid theoretical and ecological foundation. Extinction risk indicators included are (1) the probability of extinction, (2) the mean time to extinction, and (3) the critical patch size. We applied our framework to assess the global extinction vulnerability of terrestrial carnivorous and non-carnivorous birds and mammals. Irrespective of the indicator used, large-bodied species were found to be more vulnerable to extinction than their smaller counterparts. The patterns with body size were confirmed for all species groups by a comparison with IUCN data on the proportion of extant threatened species: the models correctly predicted a multimodal distribution with body size for carnivorous birds and a monotonic distribution for mammals and non-carnivorous birds. Carnivorous mammals were found to have higher extinction risks than non-carnivores, while birds were more prone to extinction than mammals. These results are explained by the allometric relationships, predicting the vulnerable species groups to have lower intrinsic population growth rates, smaller population sizes, lower carrying capacities, or larger dispersal distances, which, in turn, increase the importance of losses due to environmental stochastic effects and dispersal activities. Our study is the first to integrate population viability analysis and allometry into a novel, process-based framework that is able to quantify extinction risk of a large number of species without requiring data-intensive, species-specific information. The framework facilitates the estimation of extinction vulnerabilities of data-deficient species. It may be applied to forecast extinction vulnerability in response to a changing environment, by incorporating quantitative relationships between wildlife demographic parameters and environmental drivers like habitat alteration, climate change, or hunting.

Assessing the social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda.

PubMed

Bizimana, Jean-Pierre; Twarabamenye, Emmanuel; Kienberger, Stefan

2015-01-07

Since 2004, malaria interventions in Rwanda have resulted in substantial decline of malaria incidence. However, this achievement is fragile as potentials for local malaria transmissions remain. The risk of getting malaria infection is partially explained by social conditions of vulnerable populations. Since vulnerability to malaria is both influenced by social and environmental factors, its complexity cannot be measured by a single value. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to apply a composite indicator approach for assessing social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda. This assessment informs the decision-makers in targeting malaria interventions and allocating limited resources to reduce malaria burden in Rwanda. A literature review was used to conceptualize the social vulnerability to malaria and to select the appropriate vulnerability indicators. Indicators used in the index creation were classified into susceptibility and lack of resilience vulnerability domains. The main steps followed include selection of indicators and datasets, imputation of missing values, descriptive statistics, normalization and weighting of indicators, local sensitivity analysis and indicators aggregation. Correlation analysis helped to empirically evidence the association between the indicators and malaria incidence. The high values of social vulnerability to malaria are found in Gicumbi, Rusizi, Nyaruguru and Gisagara, and low values in Muhanga, Nyarugenge, Kicukiro and Nyanza. The most influential susceptibility indicators to increase malaria are population change (r = 0.729), average number of persons per bedroom (r = 0.531), number of households affected by droughts and famines (r = 0.591), and area used for irrigation (r = 0.611). The bed net ownership (r = -0.398) and poor housing wall materials (0.378) are the lack of resilience indicators that significantly correlate with malaria incidence. The developed composite index social vulnerability to malaria indicates which indicators need to be addressed and in which districts. The results from this study are salient for public health policy- and decision makers in malaria control in Rwanda and timely support the national integrated malaria initiative. Future research development should focus on spatial explicit vulnerability assessment by combining environmental and social drivers to achieve an integrated and complete assessment of vulnerability to malaria.

Rethinking vulnerability analysis and governance with emphasis on a participatory approach.

PubMed

Rossignol, Nicolas; Delvenne, Pierre; Turcanu, Catrinel

2015-01-01

This article draws on vulnerability analysis as it emerged as a complement to classical risk analysis, and it aims at exploring its ability for nurturing risk and vulnerability governance actions. An analysis of the literature on vulnerability analysis allows us to formulate a three-fold critique: first, vulnerability analysis has been treated separately in the natural and the technological hazards fields. This separation prevents vulnerability from unleashing the full range of its potential, as it constrains appraisals into artificial categories and thus already closes down the outcomes of the analysis. Second, vulnerability analysis focused on assessment tools that are mainly quantitative, whereas qualitative appraisal is a key to assessing vulnerability in a comprehensive way and to informing policy making. Third, a systematic literature review of case studies reporting on participatory approaches to vulnerability analysis allows us to argue that participation has been important to address the above, but it remains too closed down in its approach and would benefit from embracing a more open, encompassing perspective. Therefore, we suggest rethinking vulnerability analysis as one part of a dynamic process between opening-up and closing-down strategies, in order to support a vulnerability governance framework. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Assessment of physical vulnerability of buildings and analysis of landslide risk at the municipal scale - application to the Loures municipality, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillard-Gonçalves, C.; Zêzere, J. L.; Pereira, S.; Garcia, R. A. C.

2015-09-01

This study offers a semi-quantitative assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings to landslides in the Loures municipality, as well as an analysis of the landslide risk computed as the product of the vulnerability by the economic value of the buildings and by the landslide hazard. The physical vulnerability assessment, which was based on a questionnaire sent to a pool of Portuguese and European researchers, and the assessment of the subjectivity of their answers are innovative contributions of this work. The generalization of the vulnerability to the smallest statistical subsection was validated by changing the map unit and applying the vulnerability to all the buildings of a test site (approximately 800 buildings), which were inventoried during fieldwork. The economic value of the buildings of the Loures municipality was calculated using an adaptation of the Portuguese Tax Services formula. The hazard was assessed by combining the susceptibility of the slopes, the spatio-temporal probability and the frequency-magnitude relationship of the landslide. Finally, the risk was mapped for different landslide magnitudes and different spatio-temporal probabilities. The highest landslide risk was found for the landslide with a depth of 3 m in the landslide body, and a height of 1m in the landslide foot.

Assessment of vulnerability zones for ground water pollution using GIS-DRASTIC-EC model: A field-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anantha Rao, D.; Naik, Pradeep K.; Jain, Sunil K.; Vinod Kumar, K.; Dhanamjaya Rao, E. N.

2018-06-01

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to pollution is an essential pre-requisite for better planning of an area. We present the groundwater vulnerability assessment in parts of the Yamuna Nagar District, Haryana State, India in an area of about 800 km2, considered to be a freshwater zone in the foothills of the Siwalik Hill Ranges. Such areas in the Lower Himalayas form good groundwater recharge zones, and should always be free from contamination. But, the administration has been trying to promote industrialization along these foothill zones without actually assessing the environmental consequences such activities may invite in the future. GIS-DRASTIC model has been used with field based data inputs for studying the vulnerability assessment. But, we find that inclusion electrical conductivity (EC) as a model parameter makes it more robust. Therefore, we rename it as GIS-DRASTIC-EC model. The model identifies three vulnerability zones such as low, moderate and high with an areal extent of 5%, 80% and 15%, respectively. On the basis of major chemical parameters alone, the groundwater in the foothill zones apparently looks safe, but analysis with the help of GIS-DRASTIC-EC model gives a better perspective of the groundwater quality in terms of identifying the vulnerable areas.

Bank Erosion Vulnerability Zonation (BEVZ) -A Proposed Method of Preparing Bank Erosion Zonation and Its Application on the River Haora, Tripura, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandyopadhyay, Shreya; de, Sunil Kumar

2014-05-01

In the present paper an attempt has been made to propose RS-GIS based method for erosion vulnerability zonation for the entire river based on simple techniques that requires very less field investigation. This method consist of 8 parameters, such as, rainfall erosivity, lithological factor, bank slope, meander index, river gradient, soil erosivity, vegetation cover and anthropogenic impact. Meteorological data, GSI maps, LISS III (30m resolution), SRTM DEM (56m resolution) and Google Images have been used to determine rainfall erosivity, lithological factor, bank slope, meander index, river gradient, vegetation cover and anthropogenic impact; Soil map of the NBSSLP, India has been used for assessing Soil Erosivity index. By integrating the individual values of those six parameters (the 1st two parameters are remained constant for this particular study area) a bank erosion vulnerability zonation map of the River Haora, Tripura, India (23°37' - 23°53'N and 91°15'-91°37'E) has been prepared. The values have been compared with the existing BEHI-NBS method of 60 spots and also with field data of 30 cross sections (covering the 60 spots) taken along 51 km stretch of the river in Indian Territory and found that the estimated values are matching with the existing method as well as with field data. The whole stretch has been divided into 5 hazard zones, i.e. Very High, High, Moderate, Low and Very Low Hazard Zones and they are covering 5.66 km, 16.81 km, 40.82km, 29.67 km and 9.04 km respectively. KEY WORDS: Bank erosion, Bank Erosion Hazard Index (BEHI), Near Bank Stress (NBS), Erosivity, Bank Erosion Vulnerability Zonation.

Consistent approach to describing aircraft HIRF protection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rimbey, P. R.; Walen, D. B.

1995-01-01

The high intensity radiated fields (HIRF) certification process as currently implemented is comprised of an inconsistent combination of factors that tend to emphasize worst case scenarios in assessing commercial airplane certification requirements. By examining these factors which include the process definition, the external HIRF environment, the aircraft coupling and corresponding internal fields, and methods of measuring equipment susceptibilities, activities leading to an approach to appraising airplane vulnerability to HIRF are proposed. This approach utilizes technically based criteria to evaluate the nature of the threat, including the probability of encountering the external HIRF environment. No single test or analytic method comprehensively addresses the full HIRF threat frequency spectrum. Additional tools such as statistical methods must be adopted to arrive at more realistic requirements to reflect commercial aircraft vulnerability to the HIRF threat. Test and analytic data are provided to support the conclusions of this report. This work was performed under NASA contract NAS1-19360, Task 52.

Noninvasive Measurement of Vulnerability to Drought-Induced Embolism by X-Ray Microtomography1

PubMed Central

Choat, Brendan; Cochard, Herve; Jansen, Steven

2016-01-01

Hydraulic failure induced by xylem embolism is one of the primary mechanisms of plant dieback during drought. However, many of the methods used to evaluate the vulnerability of different species to drought-induced embolism are indirect and invasive, increasing the possibility that measurement artifacts may occur. Here, we utilize x-ray computed microtomography (microCT) to directly visualize embolism formation in the xylem of living, intact plants with contrasting wood anatomy (Quercus robur, Populus tremula × Populus alba, and Pinus pinaster). These observations were compared with widely used centrifuge techniques that require destructive sampling. MicroCT imaging provided detailed spatial information regarding the dimensions and functional status of xylem conduits during dehydration. Vulnerability curves based on microCT observations of intact plants closely matched curves based on the centrifuge technique for species with short vessels (P. tremula × P. alba) or tracheids (P. pinaster). For ring porous Q. robur, the centrifuge technique significantly overestimated vulnerability to embolism, indicating that caution should be used when applying this technique to species with long vessels. These findings confirm that microCT can be used to assess the vulnerability to embolism on intact plants by direct visualization. PMID:26527655

Climate Risk and Vulnerability in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Region: Interactions with Spatial Population and Land Cover Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, R. S.; Levy, M.; Baptista, S.; Adamo, S.

2010-12-01

Vulnerability to climate variability and change will depend on dynamic interactions between different aspects of climate, land-use change, and socioeconomic trends. Measurements and projections of these changes are difficult at the local scale but necessary for effective planning. New data sources and methods make it possible to assess land-use and socioeconomic changes that may affect future patterns of climate vulnerability. In this paper we report on new time series data sets that reveal trends in the spatial patterns of climate vulnerability in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico Region. Specifically, we examine spatial time series data for human population over the period 1990-2000, time series data on land use and land cover over 2000-2009, and infant mortality rates as a proxy for poverty for 2000-2008. We compare the spatial trends for these measures to the distribution of climate-related natural disaster risk hotspots (cyclones, floods, landslides, and droughts) in terms of frequency, mortality, and economic losses. We use these data to identify areas where climate vulnerability appears to be increasing and where it may be decreasing. Regions where trends and patterns are especially worrisome include coastal areas of Guatemala and Honduras.

Remote Sensing Data for Coastal Zone Vulnerability Assessment- the Bay of Algiers Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabehi, Walid; Guerfi, Mokhtar; Mahi, Habib

2016-08-01

Like many of South Mediterranean coastlines, the Algerian coastal zone and Algiers' bay specifically, is one of the most vulnerable zone. Because of the natural pressures occurring in the region such as earthquake, tsunami risk, erosion / accretion, marine intrusion, etc. Combined with other anthropogenic factors as urban sprawl, pollution, loss of biodiversity and economic value etc... A high degradation of this coastline is noticeable despite all the protection measures brought to these zones, which have sometimes increased its vulnerability.The aim of this work is to generate the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) map related to erosion and flooding. This index, created by Gornitz & White (1990), was particularly focused on "physical parameters of the coast" [3], Then it was improved by McLaughlin & Cooper (2010), who added a socio-economical approach by calculating parameters like demography, land use...etc. The index is obtained by integrating in a GIS, different vulnerability factors of the coastal area.. Many relevant parameters were derived from remote sensing, combined with other data; they are analyzed with a Multicriteria method after being grouped in three sub- indexes; coastal physical characteristics, coastal forcing and socioeconomic factors, in order to produce the CVI.

Noninvasive Measurement of Vulnerability to Drought-Induced Embolism by X-Ray Microtomography.

PubMed

Choat, Brendan; Badel, Eric; Burlett, Regis; Delzon, Sylvain; Cochard, Herve; Jansen, Steven

2016-01-01

Hydraulic failure induced by xylem embolism is one of the primary mechanisms of plant dieback during drought. However, many of the methods used to evaluate the vulnerability of different species to drought-induced embolism are indirect and invasive, increasing the possibility that measurement artifacts may occur. Here, we utilize x-ray computed microtomography (microCT) to directly visualize embolism formation in the xylem of living, intact plants with contrasting wood anatomy (Quercus robur, Populus tremula × Populus alba, and Pinus pinaster). These observations were compared with widely used centrifuge techniques that require destructive sampling. MicroCT imaging provided detailed spatial information regarding the dimensions and functional status of xylem conduits during dehydration. Vulnerability curves based on microCT observations of intact plants closely matched curves based on the centrifuge technique for species with short vessels (P. tremula × P. alba) or tracheids (P. pinaster). For ring porous Q. robur, the centrifuge technique significantly overestimated vulnerability to embolism, indicating that caution should be used when applying this technique to species with long vessels. These findings confirm that microCT can be used to assess the vulnerability to embolism on intact plants by direct visualization. © 2016 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

Stochastic landslide vulnerability modeling in space and time in a part of the northern Himalayas, India.

PubMed

Das, Iswar; Kumar, Gaurav; Stein, Alfred; Bagchi, Arunabha; Dadhwal, Vinay K

2011-07-01

Little is known about the quantitative vulnerability analysis to landslides as not many attempts have been made to assess it comprehensively. This study assesses the spatio-temporal vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides in a stochastic framework. The study includes buildings, persons inside buildings, and traffic as elements at risk to landslides. Building vulnerability is the expected damage and depends on the position of a building with respect to the landslide hazard at a given time. Population and vehicle vulnerability are the expected death toll in a building and vehicle damage in space and time respectively. The study was carried out in a road corridor in the Indian Himalayas that is highly susceptible to landslides. Results showed that 26% of the buildings fall in the high and very high vulnerability categories. Population vulnerability inside buildings showed a value >0.75 during 0800 to 1000 hours and 1600 to 1800 hours in more buildings that other times of the day. It was also observed in the study region that the vulnerability of vehicle is above 0.6 in half of the road stretches during 0800 hours to 1000 hours and 1600 to 1800 hours due to high traffic density on the road section. From this study, we conclude that the vulnerability of an element at risk to landslide is a space and time event, and can be quantified using stochastic modeling. Therefore, the stochastic vulnerability modeling forms the basis for a quantitative landslide risk analysis and assessment.

Negative emotional reactivity as a marker of vulnerability in the development of borderline personality disorder symptoms

PubMed Central

Stepp, Stephanie D.; Scott, Lori N.; Jones, Neil P.; Whalen, Diana J.; Hipwell, Alison E.

2015-01-01

Negative emotionality is a distinguishing feature of borderline personality disorder (BPD). However, this person-level characteristic has not been examined as a marker of vulnerability in the development of this disorder. The current study utilized a multi-method approach to examine the interplay between negative emotional reactivity and cumulative exposure to family adversity on the development of BPD symptoms across three years (ages 16–18) in a diverse, at-risk sample of adolescent girls (N=113). A latent variable of negative emotional reactivity was created from multiple assessments at age 16: (1) self-report, (2) emotion ratings to stressors from ecological assessments across one week, and (3) observer-rated negative affectivity during a mother-daughter conflict discussion task. Exposure to family adversity was measured cumulatively between ages 5 and 16 from annual assessments of family poverty, single parent household, and difficult life circumstances. Results from latent growth curve models demonstrated a significant interaction between negative emotional reactivity and family adversity, such that exposure to adversity strengthened the association between negative emotional reactivity and BPD symptoms. Additionally, family adversity predicted increasing BPD symptoms during late adolescence. These findings highlight negative emotional reactivity as a marker of vulnerability that ultimately increases risk for the development of BPD symptoms. PMID:25925083

BROAD-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF WETLAND VULNERABILITY USING GIS AND LANDSCAPE-ECOLOGICAL METRICS

EPA Science Inventory

Landscape-ecological indicators of ecosystem integrity are increasingly being sought for use in habitat suitability assessments, habitat vulnerability assessments, and as a means to set goals for restoration projects. We utilized currently available information from the Arkansas...

Modeling change in potential landscape vulnerability to forest insect and pathogen disturbances: methods for forested subwatersheds sampled in the midscale interior Columbia River basin assessment.

Treesearch

Paul F. Hessburg; Bradley G. Smith; Craig A. Miller; Scott D. Kreiter; R. Brion Salter

1999-01-01

In the interior Columbia River basin midscale ecological assessment, including portions of the Klamath and Great Basins, we mapped and characterized historical and current vegetation composition and structure of 337 randomly sampled subwatersheds (9500 ha average size) in 43 subbasins (404 000 ha average size). We compared landscape patterns, vegetation structure and...

Vulnerability to Elder Abuse and Neglect in Assisted Living Facilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, Stacey; Stephens, Mary

2003-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the decision-making abilities of residents in assisted living regarding abuse and neglect. Design and Methods: Twenty-seven residents in assisted living facilities were recruited for this descriptive study. Participants were administered an interview to assess baseline knowledge of support…

Coping with the gypsy moth on new frontiers of infestation

Treesearch

David A. Gansner; Owen W. Herrick; Garland N. Mason; Kurt W. Gottschalk

1987-01-01

Forest managers on new frontiers of infestation are searching for better ways to cope with the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar). Presented herea are information and guidelines for remedial action to minimize future losses. Methods for assessing potential stand defoliation (susceptibility) and mortality (vulnerability), monitoring insect populations, and...

Risk assessment for tephra dispersal and sedimentation: the example of four Icelandic volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biass, Sebastien; Scaini, Chiara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Smith, Kate; Folch, Arnau; Höskuldsson, Armann; Galderisi, Adriana

2014-05-01

In order to assist the elaboration of proactive measures for the management of future Icelandic volcanic eruptions, we developed a new approach to assess the impact associated with tephra dispersal and sedimentation at various scales and for multiple sources. Target volcanoes are Hekla, Katla, Eyjafjallajökull and Askja, selected for their high probabilities of eruption and/or their high potential impact. We combined stratigraphic studies, probabilistic strategies and numerical modelling to develop comprehensive eruption scenarios and compile hazard maps for local ground deposition and regional atmospheric concentration using both TEPHRA2 and FALL3D models. New algorithms for the identification of comprehensive probability density functions of eruptive source parameters were developed for both short and long-lasting activity scenarios. A vulnerability assessment of socioeconomic and territorial aspects was also performed at both national and continental scales. The identification of relevant vulnerability indicators allowed for the identification of the most critical areas and territorial nodes. At a national scale, the vulnerability of economic activities and the accessibility to critical infrastructures was assessed. At a continental scale, we assessed the vulnerability of the main airline routes and airports. Resulting impact and risk were finally assessed by combining hazard and vulnerability analysis.

Potential risks of nitrate pollution in aquifers from agricultural practices in the Nurra region, northwestern Sardinia, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghiglieri, Giorgio; Barbieri, Giulio; Vernier, Antonio; Carletti, Alberto; Demurtas, Nicola; Pinna, Rosanna; Pittalis, Daniele

2009-12-01

SummaryThe paper describes the methodological and innovative approach, which aims to evaluate the potential risk of nitrate pollution in aquifers from agricultural practices by combining intrinsic aquifer vulnerability to contamination, according to the SINTACS R5 method, with agricultural nitrates hazard assessment, according to the IPNOA index. The proposed parametric model adopts a geographically based integrated evaluation system, comprising qualitative and semi-quantitative indicators. In some cases, the authors have modified this model, revising and adjusting scores and weights of the parameter to account for the different environmental conditions, and calibrating accordingly. The method has been successfully implemented and validated in the pilot area of the Alghero coastal plain (northwestern Sardinia, Italy) where aquifers with high productivity are present. The classes with a major score (high potential risk) are in the central part of the plain, in correspondence with the most productive aquifers, where most actual or potential pollution sources are concentrated. These are mainly represented by intensive agricultural activities, by industrial agglomerate and diffused urbanisation. For calibrating the model and optimizing and/or weighting the examined factors, the modelling results were validated by comparison with groundwater quality data, in particular nitrate content, and with the potential pollution sources census data. The parametric method is a popular approach to groundwater vulnerability assessment, in contrast to groundwater flow model and statistical method ones: it is, indeed, relatively inexpensive and straightforward, and use data commonly available or that can be estimated. The zoning of nitrate vulnerable areas provides regional authorities with a useful decision support tool for planning land-use properly managing groundwater and combating and/or mitigating desertification processes. However, a careful validation of the results is indispensable for reliable application.

A Comprehensive evaluation of groundwater vulnerability to saltwater up-coning and sea water intrusion in a coastal aquifer (case study: Ghaemshahr-juybar aquifer)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motevalli, Alireza; Moradi, Hamid Reza; Javadi, Saman

2018-02-01

Aquifer salinization has recently increased significantly due to human activity and has caused irreparable environmental and economic effects. In this research, a new method is proposed for modeling the vulnerability to salinity for the Ghaemshahr-juybar aquifer. Specifically, the GALDIT (Sea water intrusion) and TAWLBIC (Saltwater up-coning) indices were combined to produce a map of vulnerability (Comprehensive Salinity Index or CSI) to seawater intrusion of a region near the coast and saltwater up-coning away from the coast, respectively. Single parameter and removal layer sensitivity analysis were performed in order to identify the sensitive parameters and achieve optimal weights (through the single-parameter method) of contributing factors in all three methods. The three optimized methods produced were GALDIT-Opt, TAWLBIC-Opt and CSI-Opt. To assess the accuracy of the original maps and optimal ones, the Pearson correlation was used. Results indicated that the Pearson correlation of the optimized GALDIT, TAWLBIC and CSI model was better than GALDIT, TAWLBIC and CSI. The results show that the increase in correlation between EC (Electrical Conductivity), TDS (Total Dissolved Solids) and SAR (Sodium Adsorption Ratio) from the GALDIT model to the CSI-Opt model from values of 0.64, 0.56 and 0.68 has improved to values of 0.81, 0.88 and 0.91, respectively. The highest concentration of EC, with a value of 7050 μs/cm, is sampled in the areas of the east and northwest of the Ghaemshahr-juybar aquifer, which are classified in the CSI-Opt model as high and very high vulnerability levels. The highest concentration of TDS and SAR has been found in the east, northwest and northeast of the Ghaemshahr-juybar aquifer with a value of 4724 ppm for TDS and 14 mg/l for SAR that have been modeled in the CSI-Opt index as highly vulnerable areas. Eventually, CSI mapping can be used as an efficient tool in prioritizing in terms of the vulnerability to aquifer salinity, carrying out adjustments, recharge, and adaptation policies for this issue.

Network Vulnerability Assessment of the U.S. Crude Pipeline Infrastructure

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

56 Clanton, “Oklahoma Oil Hub Helps Keep Oil Prices from Going Higher.” 57 Donald Furgeson, John Mahoney , and Brett Warfield...Vulnerability Assessment Matrix of the COTH.58 58 Furgeson, Mahoney , and Warfield, Security...Steinhäusler et al., “Security Risks to the Oil and Gas Industry: Terrorist Capabilities.” 71 Furgeson, Mahoney , and Warfield, Security Vulnerability

6 CFR 27.255 - Recordkeeping requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... audit required under § 27.225(e)) or Security Vulnerability Assessment, a record of the audit, including... retain records of submitted Top-Screens, Security Vulnerability Assessments, Site Security Plans, and all...

The Components of Community Awareness and Preparedness; its Effects on the Reduction of Tsunami Vulnerability and Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tufekci, Duygu; Lutfi Suzen, Mehmet; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet

2017-04-01

The resilience of coastal communities against tsunamis are dependent on preparedness of the communities. Preparedness covers social and structural components which increases with the awareness in the community against tsunamis. Therefore, proper evaluation of all components of preparedness will help communities to reduce the adverse effects of tsunamis and increase the overall resilience of communities. On the other hand, the complexity of the metropolitan life with its social and structural components necessitates explicit vulnerability assessments for proper determination of tsunami risk, and development of proper mitigation strategies and recovery plans. Assessing the vulnerability and resilience level of a region against tsunamis and efforts for reducing the tsunami risk are the key components of disaster management. Since increasing the awareness of coastal communities against tsunamis is one of the main objectives of disaster management, then it should be considered as one of the parameter in tsunami risk analysis. In the method named MetHuVA (METU - Metropolitan Human Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment) proposed by Cankaya et al., (2016) and Tufekci et al., (2016), the awareness and preparedness level of the community is revealed to be an indispensable parameter with a great effect on tsunami risk. According to the results obtained from those studies, it becomes important that the awareness and preparedness parameter (n) must be analyzed by considering their interaction and all related components. While increasing awareness can be achieved, vulnerability and risk will be reduced. In this study the components of awareness and preparedness parameter (n) is analyzed in different categories by considering administrative, social, educational, economic and structural preparedness of the coastal communities. Hence the proposed awareness and preparedness parameter can properly be analyzed and further improvements can be achieved in vulnerability and risk analysis. Furthermore, the components of the awareness and preparedness parameter n, is widely investigated in global and local practices by using the method of categorization to determine different levels for different coastal metropolitan areas with different cultures and with different hazard perception. Moreover, consistency between the theoretical maximum and practical applications of parameter n is estimated, discussed and presented. In the applications mainly the Bakirkoy district of Istanbul is analyzed and the results are presented. Acknowledgements: Partial support by 603839 ASTARTE Project of EU, UDAPC-12-14 project of AFAD, Turkey, 213M534 projects of TUBITAK, Japan-Turkey Joint Research Project by JICA on earthquakes and tsunamis in Marmara Region in (JICA SATREPS - MarDiM Project), and Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality are acknowledged.

Social vulnerability to climate change in primary producers: A typology approach

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Adaptation in agro-ecological systems will be important for moderating the impacts of climate change. Vulnerability assessments provide the basis for developing strategies to reduce social vulnerability and plan for climate adaptation. Primary industries have been identified as the most vulnerable i...

Integrated assessment of socio-economic risks of dangerous hydrological phenomena in Russian coastal zones of the Baltic, the Azov and the Black Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zemtsov, Stepan; Baburin, Vyacheslav; Goryachko, Mariya; Krylenko, Inna; Yumina, Natalya

2013-04-01

In 2012, an integrated damage from floods in Russia was about 1 billion euros, floods have caused the death of over 200 people. It is one of the most pressing scientific topics, but most of the works devoted to natural risks assessment. The main purpose of this work is to estimate the influence of dangerous hydrological phenomena (e.g. floods, underflooding and surges) on society, using vulnerability and damage assessment techniques. The objectives are to examine domestic and foreign methodologies, to integrate them and to test on specific Russian territory. Foreign training was organized at UNU-EHS (Bonn, Germany). Three different methods were used for each stage of research. The first part of the research was devoted to estimation of potential damage for population and economy of the Baltic Sea coastal zones. The authors used a model, which takes into account direct damage (loss of life, destruction of buildings, etc.) as well as indirect effects of the first, second, etc. orders (loss of profits, loss of the budget, etc.). A database, based on satellite images, maps, yearbooks of Russian Statistical Service and reports of entities, has been prepared. The database is a matrix, in which the rows are coastal zones, and the columns are given indicators: number of people in port areas (people), cost of fixed assets (million rubles), investment (million rubles.), revenue / profit (million rubles.), etc. The authors identified zones with different depth of flooding, using satellite images, and calculated the direct and indirect costs, using the methodology of EMERCOM. Maximum direct potential damage for the Baltic coast is about 15,7 billion euros, but indirect damage is more than 25,5 billion euros. The second part of research was devoted to vulnerability assessment of coastal municipalities of Krasnodar Region. A database, as a matrix of 252 parameters from 2007 to 2009 for 14 coastal municipalities, was developed. The parameters were divided into several blocks according to UNU-EHS methodology: 'exposure' and 'vulnerability', consisting of 'susceptibility', 'coping capacity' and 'adaptive capacity'. Relevant indicators for each block were selected and verified by statistical methods. The authors estimated the share of people potentially exposed to flooding with the help of geographic information system. The authors, using the technique of World Risk Index (2011), calculated sub-indices for each block, and made the maps. Areas with the highest socio-economic risks were identified on the Azov and the Black sea coast: Slavyansky, Krymsky, Krasnoarmeysky, Temryuksky and Primorsko-Akhtarsky municipal districts. On the third stage, the main purpose was to integrate and use both approaches in evaluation of socio-economic risks on micro-geographical level for different categories of the population and different industries (agriculture, utilities, etc.), using 'field' data. Field study was conducted in Slavyansky municipal district of Krasnodar region and included opinion polls, special interviews with businessmen and authorities, collection of municipal statistics and data from companies, etc. Vulnerability maps, speed evacuation maps, maps of possible locations of warning systems and maps of high insurance risks were developed. Proposals for improvement of legislation for coastal zones were prepared. The conducted research has shown the importance of both social ('vulnerability'), and economic ('damage') components of risk assessment. Using the previously discussed methods individually does not bring desired results because of deficiencies of Russian statistics. It is essential for accurate risk assessment to use an 'ensemble' of methods (statistical, field observations, etc.) on micro geographic level. The work has a practical importance for improving safety of local communities.

Emerging Technology Update Intravascular Photoacoustic Imaging of Vulnerable Atherosclerotic Plaque.

PubMed

Wu, Min; Fw van der Steen, Antonius; Regar, Evelyn; van Soest, Gijs

2016-10-01

The identification of vulnerable atherosclerotic plaques in the coronary arteries is emerging as an important tool for guiding atherosclerosis diagnosis and interventions. Assessment of plaque vulnerability requires knowledge of both the structure and composition of the plaque. Intravascular photoacoustic (IVPA) imaging is able to show the morphology and composition of atherosclerotic plaque. With imminent improvements in IVPA imaging, it is becoming possible to assess human coronary artery disease in vivo . Although some challenges remain, IVPA imaging is on its way to being a powerful tool for visualising coronary atherosclerotic features that have been specifically associated with plaque vulnerability and clinical syndromes, and thus such imaging might become valuable for clinical risk assessment in the catheterisation laboratory.

REGIONAL VULNERABILITY: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

EPA Science Inventory

Regional vulnerability assessment, or ReVA, is an approach to place-based ecological risk assessment that is currently under development by the Office of Research and Development of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The assessment is done at the scale of EPA region...

EPA'S REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT PROGRAM: TOOLS TO FACILITATE REGIONAL TO LOCAL DECISION-MAKING

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program is developing and testing approaches to conducting comparative environmental risk assessments at the regional scale, considering impacts to ecological human, and fiscal health endpoints. It seeks an objective and quantifiable...

Can we (actually) assess global risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2013-04-01

The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much needed in a rapidly changing world. This presentation will discuss these challenges and describe a few initial attempts aiming to better understand the interactions between the different components of flood risk with reference to diverse case studies in Europe, Central America, and Africa.

Longitudinal Change in Women's Sexual Victimization Experiences as a Function of Alcohol Consumption and Sexual Victimization History: A Latent Transition Analysis

PubMed Central

Bryan, Amanda E. B.; Norris, Jeanette; Abdallah, Devon Alisa; Stappenbeck, Cynthia A.; Morrison, Diane M.; Davis, Kelly C.; George, William H.; Danube, Cinnamon L.; Zawacki, Tina

2015-01-01

Objective Women's alcohol consumption and vulnerability to sexual victimization (SV) are linked, but findings regarding the nature and direction of the association are mixed. Some studies have found support for the self-medication hypothesis (i.e., victimized women drink more to alleviate SV-related distress); others have supported routine activity theory (i.e., drinking increases SV vulnerability). In this study, we aimed to clarify the interplay between women's prior SV, typical drinking, and SV experiences prospectively over one year. Method Participants (N = 530) completed a baseline survey and weekly follow-up surveys across Months 3, 6, 9, and 12. Results Latent class analysis (LCA) suggested that women could be classified as victimized or non-victimized at each assessment month; 28% of participants were classified as victimized at one or more assessment months. Latent transition analysis (LTA) revealed that childhood sexual abuse and adult SV history each predicted greater likelihood of being victimized during the year. Typical drinking during a given assessment month was associated with (1) greater likelihood of victimized status at that assessment month and (2) greater likelihood of having transitioned into (or remained in) the victimized status since the previous assessment month. Furthermore, victimized status at a given assessment month predicted a higher quantity of subsequent drinking. Conclusion These findings indicate a reciprocal relationship between typical drinking and SV, supporting both the self-medication hypothesis and routine activity theory, and suggesting that hazardous drinking levels may be one important target for both SV vulnerability reduction and interventions for women who have been sexually victimized. PMID:27213101

An Assessment of Vulnerability and Trade-offs of Dairy Farmers of India to Climate Variability and Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radhakrishnan, Aparna; Gupta, Jancy; Ravindran, Dileepkumar

2017-04-01

The study aims at assessing the vulnerability and tradeoffs of dairy based livelihoods to Climate Variability and Change (CVC) in the Western Ghats ecosystem, India. For this purpose; data were aggregated to an overall Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) to CVC underlying the principles of IPCC, using 40 indicators under 7 LVI components. Fussel framework was used for the nomenclature of vulnerable situation and trade-off between vulnerability components and milk production was calculated. Data were collected through participatory rural appraisal and personal interviews from 360 randomly selected dairy farmers of nine blocks from three states of Western Ghat region, complemented by thirty years of gridded weather data and livestock data. The LVI score of dairy based livelihoods of six taluks were negative. The data were normalized and then combined into three indices of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity, which were then averaged with weights given using principal component analysis, to obtain the overall vulnerability index. Mann Whitney U test was used to find the significant difference between the taluks in terms of LVI and cumulative square root frequency method was used to categorise the farmers. Even though the taluks are geographically closer, there is significant difference in the LVI values of the regions. Results indicated that the Lanja taluks of Maharashtra is the most vulnerable having an overall LVI value -4.17 with 48% farmers falling in highly vulnerable category. Panel regression analysis reveals that there is significant synergy between average milk production and livestock, social network component and trade-off between natural disasters climate variability component of LVI. Policies for incentivizing the 'climate risk adaptation' costs for small and marginal farmers and livelihood infrastructure for mitigating risks and promoting grass root level innovations are necessary to sustain dairy farming of the region. Thus the research will provide an important basis for policy makers to develop appropriate adaptation strategies for alarming situation and decision making for farmers to minimize the risk of dairy sector to climate variability.

a Novel Approach to Support Majority Voting in Spatial Group Mcdm Using Density Induced Owa Operator for Seismic Vulnerability Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradi, M.; Delavar, M. R.; Moshiri, B.; Khamespanah, F.

2014-10-01

Being one of the most frightening disasters, earthquakes frequently cause huge damages to buildings, facilities and human beings. Although the prediction of characteristics of an earthquake seems to be impossible, its loss and damage is predictable in advance. Seismic loss estimation models tend to evaluate the extent to which the urban areas are vulnerable to earthquakes. Many factors contribute to the vulnerability of urban areas against earthquakes including age and height of buildings, the quality of the materials, the density of population and the location of flammable facilities. Therefore, seismic vulnerability assessment is a multi-criteria problem. A number of multi criteria decision making models have been proposed based on a single expert. The main objective of this paper is to propose a model which facilitates group multi criteria decision making based on the concept of majority voting. The main idea of majority voting is providing a computational tool to measure the degree to which different experts support each other's opinions and make a decision regarding this measure. The applicability of this model is examined in Tehran metropolitan area which is located in a seismically active region. The results indicate that neglecting the experts which get lower degrees of support from others enables the decision makers to avoid the extreme strategies. Moreover, a computational method is proposed to calculate the degree of optimism in the experts' opinions.

An Empirical Method to Assess the Seismic Vulnerability of Existing Buildings Using the HVSR Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mucciarelli, M.; Contri, P.; Monachesi, G.; Calvano, G.; Gallipoli, M.

- The seismic vulnerability of existing buildings is usually estimated according to procedures based on checklists of main structural features. The relationship with damage is then assessed using experience from past events. An approach used in seismology for the evaluation of site amplification, based on horizontal-to-vertical ratio of weak motion and microtremors, has been applied to the structural field. This methodology provides an alternative, promising tool towards a quick and reliable estimate of seismic vulnerability. The advantages are:• The measurements are quick, simple and stable. They are non-invasive and do not affect at all, even temporarily, the functions housed in the buildings studied.• The site effect and the soil structure interaction are explicitly accounted for in the vulnerability estimate, when they are excluded in the traditional approaches.• The relationship with damage is established using meaningful physical parameters related to the construction technology, instead of adimensional, normalised indexes. The procedure has been applied to several case histories of buildings damaged in the recent Umbria-Marche earthquake which occurred in Italy in 1997. The same model has been applied to different structures (brick/stone masonry and infilled r.c. frames), on different geological conditions and under very different seismic loads. Using this combined site/building approach, it was possible to explain very sharp variations in the damage pattern.

Assessment on vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea level rise in the Yangtze Estuary, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, L.; Ge, Z.; Zhang, L.

2013-12-01

The Yangtze Delta in China is vital economic hubs in terms of settlement, industry, agriculture, trade and tourism as well as of great environmental significance. In recent decades, the prospect of climate change, in particular sea level rise and its effects on low lying coastal areas have generated worldwide attention to coastal ecosystems. Coastal wetlands, as important parts of coastal ecosystem, are particularly sensitive to sea level rise. To study the responses of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisites for securing the coastal zone ecosystems. In this study, taking the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary as a case study, the potential impacts of sea-level rise to coastal wetlands habitat were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model. The key indicators, such as the sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, elevation, daily inundation duration of habitat and sedimentation rate, were selected to build a vulnerability assessment system according to the IPCC definition of vulnerability, i.e. the aspects of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation. A quantitatively spatial assessment method on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability. The vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the sea level rise rate of the present trend and IPCC A1F1 scenario were performed for three sets of projections of short-term (2030s), mid-term (2050s) and long-term (2100s). The results showed that at the present trend of sea level rise rate of 0.26 cm/a, 92.3 % of the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary was in the EVI score of 0 in 2030s, i.e. the impact of sea level rise on habitats/species of coastal wetlands was negligible. While 7.4 % and 0.3 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 1(low vulnerability) and 2 (moderate vulnerability), respectively. In 2050s, 88.8 %, 10.7 % and 0.5 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 0, 1 and 2, respectively. In 2100s, 85.7 %, 7.3 % , 2.0 % and 5.0 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 0, 1, 2 and 3(high vulnerability), respectively. At the A1F1 scenario of sea level rise rate of 0.59 cm/a, 91.0 %, 8.7 % and 0.3 % of the coastal wetlands in 2030s were in the EVI score of 0, 1 and 2 , respectively. In 2050s, 86.9 %, 10.5 % , 2.4 % and 0.2 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 0, 1, 2 and 3, respectively. In 2100s, 82.4 %, 7.1 % , 2.4 % and 8.1 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of 0, 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The spatiotemporal occurrences of vulnerability were mainly where the subsidence rate is relatively higher and the sedimentation rate is lower or even negative. The results from this study indicated that the combined effects of sea level rise, land subsidence, reducing sediment discharge could give rise to the high risk of a considerable decrease or even habitat loss of coastal wetland in the Yangtze Estuary (particularly in 2050s and 2100s). Therefore some mitigation measures should be considered in the future, including management of sedimentation, reducing land subsidence, recreating and extending wetland habitat, and controlling reclamation.

The vulnerable plaque: the real villain in acute coronary syndromes.

PubMed

Liang, Michael; Puri, Aniket; Devlin, Gerard

2011-01-01

The term "vulnerable plaque" refers to a vascular lesion that is prone to rupture and may result in life-threatening events which include myocardial infarction. It consists of thin-cap fibroatheroma and a large lipid core which is highly thrombogenic. Acute coronary syndromes often result from rupture of vulnerable plaques which frequently are only moderately stenosed and not visible by conventional angiography. Several invasive and non-invasive strategies have been developed to assess the burden of vulnerable plaques. Intravascular ultrasound provides a two-dimensional cross-sectional image of the arterial wall and can help assess the plaque burden and composition. Optical coherent tomography offers superior resolution over intravascular ultrasound. High-resolution magnetic resonance imaging provides non-invasive imaging for visualizing fibrous cap thickness and rupture in plaques. In addition, it may be of value in assessing the effects of treatments, such as lipid-lowering therapy. Technical issues however limit its clinical applicability. The role of multi-slice computed tomography, a well established screening tool for coronary artery disease, remains to be determined. Fractional flow reserve (FFR) may provide physiological functional assessment of plaque vulnerability; however, its role in the management of vulnerable plaque requires further studies. Treatment of the vulnerable patient may involve systemic therapy which currently include statins, ACE inhibitors, beta-blockers, aspirin, and calcium-channel blockers and in the future local therapeutic options such as drug-eluting stents or photodynamic therapy.

Social vulnerability of rural households to flood hazards in western mountainous regions of Henan province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Delin; Li, Yue

2016-05-01

Evaluating social vulnerability is a crucial issue in risk and disaster management. In this study, a household social vulnerability index (HSVI) to flood hazards was developed and used to assess the social vulnerability of rural households in western mountainous regions of Henan province, China. Eight key indicators were identified using existing literature and discussions with experts from multiple disciplines and local farmers, and their weights were determined using principle component analysis (PCA) and an expert scoring method. The results showed that (1) the ratio of perennial work in other places, hazard-related training and illiteracy ratio (15+) were the most dominant factors of social vulnerability. (2) The numbers of high, moderate and low vulnerability households were 14, 64 and 16, respectively, which accounted for 14.9, 68.1 and 17.0 % of the total interviewed rural households, respectively. (3) The correlation coefficient between household social vulnerability scores and casualties in a storm flood in July 2010 was significant at 0.05 significance level (r = 0.748), which indicated that the selected indicators and their weights were valid. (4) Some mitigation strategies to reduce household social vulnerability to flood hazards were proposed, which included (1) improving the local residents' income and their disaster-related knowledge and evacuation skills, (2) developing emergency plans and carrying out emergency drills and training, (3) enhancing the accuracy of disaster monitoring and warning systems and (4) establishing a specific emergency management department and comprehensive rescue systems. These results can provide useful information for rural households and local governments to prepare, mitigate and respond to flood hazards, and the corresponding strategies can help local households to reduce their social vulnerability and improve their ability to resist flood hazard.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Puducherry coast, India using analytical hierarchical process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mani Murali, R.; Ankita, M.; Amrita, S.; Vethamony, P.

2013-03-01

Increased frequency of natural hazards such as storm surge, tsunami and cyclone, as a consequence of change in global climate, is predicted to have dramatic effects on the coastal communities and ecosystems by virtue of the devastation they cause during and after their occurrence. The tsunami of December 2004 and the Thane cyclone of 2011 caused extensive human and economic losses along the coastline of Puducherry and Tamil Nadu. The devastation caused by these events highlighted the need for vulnerability assessment to ensure better understanding of the elements causing different hazards and to consequently minimize the after-effects of the future events. This paper advocates an Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) based approach to coastal vulnerability studies as an improvement to the existing methodologies for vulnerability assessment. The paper also encourages the inclusion of socio-economic parameters along with the physical parameters to calculate the coastal vulnerability index using AHP derived weights. Seven physical-geological parameters (slope, geomorphology, elevation, shoreline change, sea level rise, significant wave height and tidal range) and four socio-economic factors (population, Land-use/Land-cover (LU/LC), roads and location of tourist places) are considered to measure the Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI) as well as the Socio-economic Vulnerability Index (SVI) of the Puducherry coast. Based on the weights and scores derived using AHP, vulnerability maps are prepared to demarcate areas with very low, medium and high vulnerability. A combination of PVI and SVI values are further utilized to compute the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI). Finally, the various coastal segments are grouped into the 3 vulnerability classes to obtain the final coastal vulnerability map. The entire coastal extent between Muthiapet and Kirumampakkam as well as the northern part of Kalapet is designated as the high vulnerability zone which constitutes 50% of the coastline. The region between the southern coastal extent of Kalapet and Lawspet is the medium vulnerability zone and the rest 25% is the low vulnerability zone. The results obtained, enable to identify and prioritize the more vulnerable areas of the region to further assist the government and the residing coastal communities in better coastal management and conservation.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Puducherry coast, India, using the analytical hierarchical process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mani Murali, R.; Ankita, M.; Amrita, S.; Vethamony, P.

2013-12-01

As a consequence of change in global climate, an increased frequency of natural hazards such as storm surges, tsunamis and cyclones, is predicted to have dramatic affects on the coastal communities and ecosystems by virtue of the devastation they cause during and after their occurrence. The tsunami of December 2004 and the Thane cyclone of 2011 caused extensive human and economic losses along the coastline of Puducherry and Tamil Nadu. The devastation caused by these events highlighted the need for vulnerability assessment to ensure better understanding of the elements causing different hazards and to consequently minimize the after- effects of the future events. This paper demonstrates an analytical hierarchical process (AHP)-based approach to coastal vulnerability studies as an improvement to the existing methodologies for vulnerability assessment. The paper also encourages the inclusion of socio-economic parameters along with the physical parameters to calculate the coastal vulnerability index using AHP-derived weights. Seven physical-geological parameters (slope, geomorphology, elevation, shoreline change, sea level rise, significant wave height and tidal range) and four socio-economic factors (population, land use/land cover (LU/LC), roads and location of tourist areas) are considered to measure the physical vulnerability index (PVI) as well as the socio-economic vulnerability index (SVI) of the Puducherry coast. Based on the weights and scores derived using AHP, vulnerability maps are prepared to demarcate areas with very low, medium and high vulnerability. A combination of PVI and SVI values are further utilized to compute the coastal vulnerability index (CVI). Finally, the various coastal segments are grouped into the 3 vulnerability classes to obtain the coastal vulnerability map. The entire coastal extent between Muthiapet and Kirumampakkam as well as the northern part of Kalapet is designated as the high vulnerability zone, which constitutes 50% of the coastline. The region between the southern coastal extent of Kalapet and Lawspet is the medium vulnerability zone and the remaining 25% is the low vulnerability zone. The results obtained enable the identification and prioritization of the more vulnerable areas of the region in order to further assist the government and the residing coastal communities in better coastal management and conservation.

Spatio-temporal texture (SpTeT) for distinguishing vulnerable from stable atherosclerotic plaque on dynamic contrast enhancement (DCE) MRI in a rabbit model

PubMed Central

Wan, Tao; Madabhushi, Anant; Phinikaridou, Alkystis; Hamilton, James A.; Hua, Ning; Pham, Tuan; Danagoulian, Jovanna; Kleiman, Ross; Buckler, Andrew J.

2014-01-01

Purpose: To develop a new spatio-temporal texture (SpTeT) based method for distinguishing vulnerable versus stable atherosclerotic plaques on DCE-MRI using a rabbit model of atherothrombosis. Methods: Aortic atherosclerosis was induced in 20 New Zealand White rabbits by cholesterol diet and endothelial denudation. MRI was performed before (pretrigger) and after (posttrigger) inducing plaque disruption with Russell's-viper-venom and histamine. Of the 30 vascular targets (segments) under histology analysis, 16 contained thrombus (vulnerable) and 14 did not (stable). A total of 352 voxel-wise computerized SpTeT features, including 192 Gabor, 36 Kirsch, 12 Sobel, 52 Haralick, and 60 first-order textural features, were extracted on DCE-MRI to capture subtle texture changes in the plaques over the course of contrast uptake. Different combinations of SpTeT feature sets, in which the features were ranked by a minimum-redundancy-maximum-relevance feature selection technique, were evaluated via a random forest classifier. A 500 iterative 2-fold cross validation was performed for discriminating the vulnerable atherosclerotic plaque and stable atherosclerotic plaque on per voxel basis. Four quantitative metrics were utilized to measure the classification results in separating between vulnerable and stable plaques. Results: The quantitative results show that the combination of five classes of SpTeT features can distinguish between vulnerable (disrupted plaques with an overlying thrombus) and stable plaques with the best AUC values of 0.9631 ± 0.0088, accuracy of 89.98% ± 0.57%, sensitivity of 83.71% ± 1.71%, and specificity of 94.55% ± 0.48%. Conclusions: Vulnerable and stable plaque can be distinguished by SpTeT based features. The SpTeT features, following validation on larger datasets, could be established as effective and reliable imaging biomarkers for noninvasively assessing atherosclerotic risk. PMID:24694153

A situational analysis of priority disaster hazards in Uganda: findings from a hazard and vulnerability analysis.

PubMed

Mayega, R W; Wafula, M R; Musenero, M; Omale, A; Kiguli, J; Orach, G C; Kabagambe, G; Bazeyo, W

2013-06-01

Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have not conducted a disaster risk analysis. Hazards and vulnerability analyses provide vital information that can be used for development of risk reduction and disaster response plans. The purpose of this study was to rank disaster hazards for Uganda, as a basis for identifying the priority hazards to guide disaster management planning. The study as conducted in Uganda, as part of a multi-country assessment. A hazard, vulnerability and capacity analysis was conducted in a focus group discussion of 7 experts representing key stakeholder agencies in disaster management in Uganda. A simple ranking method was used to rank the probability of occurance of 11 top hazards, their potential impact and the level vulnerability of people and infrastructure. In-terms of likelihood of occurance and potential impact, the top ranked disaster hazards in Uganda are: 1) Epidemics of infectious diseases, 2) Drought/famine, 3) Conflict and environmental degradation in that order. In terms of vulnerability, the top priority hazards to which people and infrastructure were vulnerable were: 1) Conflicts, 2) Epidemics, 3) Drought/famine and, 4) Environmental degradation in that order. Poverty, gender, lack of information, and lack of resilience measures were some of the factors promoting vulnerability to disasters. As Uganda develops a disaster risk reduction and response plan, it ought to prioritize epidemics of infectious diseases, drought/famine, conflics and environmental degradation as the priority disaster hazards.

An Assessment of Vulnerabilities for Ship-based Control Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

VULNERABILITIES FOR SHIP- BASED CONTROL SYSTEMS by Richard Bensing September 2009 Thesis Advisor: Karen Burke Co-Advisor: George Dinolt...COVERED Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: An Assessment of Vulnerabilities for Ship- based Control Systems 6. AUTHOR(S) Richard Bensing 5...soft underbelly. Computer- based control systems form the heart of the critical infrastructure, and these control systems are riddled with rampant

Livelihood Vulnerability Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts to Mixed Agro-Livestock Smallholders Around the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panthi, J., Sr.

2014-12-01

Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends upon agriculture and livestock are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world's fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there are few studies on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and IPCC vulnerability index (VI-IPCC), around the Gandaki river basin of Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts (Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu) representing the mountain, mid-hill and lowland altitudinal belts respectively. Data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected. Both indices differed across the three districts, with mixed agro-livestock smallholders of Dhading district found to be the most vulnerable and that of Syangja least vulnerable. This vulnerability index approach may be used to monitor rural vulnerability and/or evaluate potential program/policy effectiveness in poor countries like Nepal. The present findings are intended to help in designing intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders and other rural people in developing countries to climate change.

COORDINATING, COMMUNICATING AND PERFORMING COMPLEX RESEARCH THAT IDENTIFIES VULNERABLE STREAM ECOSYSTEM IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

EPA Science Inventory

The USEPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program was created to advance the scientific basis for protecting vulnerable ecosystems at a regional scale. As a first step, the ReVa program will coordinate, communicate and perform complex research that will identify vulner...

Clinical-Functional Vulnerability Index-20 (IVCF-20): rapid recognition of frail older adults

PubMed Central

de Moraes, Edgar Nunes; do Carmo, Juliana Alves; de Moraes, Flávia Lanna; Azevedo, Raquel Souza; Machado, Carla Jorge; Montilla, Dalia Elena Romero

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To evaluate the adequacy of the Clinical-Functional Vulnerability Index-20, a rapid triage instrument to test vulnerability in Brazilian older adults, for the use in primary health care. METHODS The study included convenience sample of 397 patients aged older than or equal to 60 years attended at Centro de Referência para o Idoso (Reference Center for Older Adults) and of 52 older adults the same age attended at the community. The results of the questionnaire, consisting of 20 questions, were compared with those of the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment, considered a reference for identifying frail older adults. Spearman’s correlation was evaluated in the Clinical-Functional Vulnerability Index-20 with the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment; the validity was verified by the area under the ROC curve; reliability was estimated by the percentage of agreement among evaluators and by the kappa coefficient, both with quadratic weighted. The cut-off point was obtained based on the higher accuracy criterion. Cronbach’s alpha, a measure of internal consistency, was estimated. RESULTS The Spearman’s correlation coefficient was high and positive for both groups (0.792 for older adults attended at the Reference Center and 0.305 for older adults from the community [p < 0.001]). The area under the ROC curve for older adults attended at the Reference Center was substantial (0.903). The cut-off point obtained was six, and older adults with scores in Clinical-Functional Vulnerability Index-20 above that value had strong possibility of being frail. For older adults from the community, the quadratic weighted agreement among evaluators was 99.5%, and the global quadratic weighted kappa coefficient was 0.94. Cronbach’s alpha was high for older adults attended at the Reference Center (0.861) and those attended at the community (0.740). CONCLUSIONS The Clinical-Functional Vulnerability Index-20 questionnaire, in the sample examined, turned out to be positively correlated with the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment, in addition to the results indicating a high degree of validity and reliability. Thus, the Clinical-Functional Vulnerability Index-20 proves to be viable as a triage instrument in the primary health care that identifies frail older adults (older adults at risk of weakening and frail older adults). PMID:28099667

GIS-based groundwater vulnerability modelling: A case study of the Witbank, Ermelo and Highveld Coalfields in South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakala, E.; Fourie, F.; Gomo, M.; Coetzee, H.

2018-01-01

In the last 20 years, the popular mineral systems approach has been used successfully for the exploration of various mineral commodities at various scales owing to its scientific soundness, cost effectiveness and simplicity in mapping the critical processes required for the formation of deposits. In the present study this approach was modified for the assessment of groundwater vulnerability. In terms of the modified approach, water drives the pollution migration processes, with various analogies having been derived from the mineral systems approach. The modified approach is illustrated here by the discussion of a case study of acid mine drainage (AMD) pollution in the Witbank, Ermelo and Highveld coalfields of the Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal Provinces in South Africa. Many AMD cases have been reported in these provinces in recent years and are a cause of concern for local municipalities, mining and environmental agencies. In the Witbank, Ermelo and Highveld coalfields, several areas have been mined out while mining has not yet started in others, hence the need to identify groundwater regions prone to AMD pollution in order to avoid further impacts on the groundwater resources. A knowledge-based fuzzy expert system was built using vulnerability factors (energy sources, ligands sources, pollutant sources, transportation pathways and traps) to generate a groundwater vulnerability model of the coalfields. Highly vulnerable areas were identified in Witbank coalfield and the eastern part of the Ermelo coalfield which are characterised by the presence of AMD sources, good subsurface transport coupled with poor AMD pollution trapping properties. The results from the analysis indicate significant correlations between model values and both groundwater sulphate concentrations as well as pH. This shows that the proposed approach can indeed be used as an alternative to traditional methods of groundwater vulnerability assessment. The methodology only considers the AMD pollution attenuation and migration at a regional scale and does not account for local-scale sources of pollution and attenuation. Further research to refine the approach may include the incorporation of groundwater flow direction, rock-pollution reaction time, and temporal datasets for the future prediction of groundwater vulnerability. The approach may be applied to other coalfields to assess its robustness to changing hydrogeological conditions.

Assessment of coastal vulnerability through the use of GIS tools in South Sicily (Italy).

PubMed

Anfuso, Giorgio; Martínez Del Pozo, José Angel

2009-03-01

This study assessed coastal erosion vulnerability along a 90-km sector, which included both erosional and accretionary beaches, and different levels of human occupation. Two aerial photogrammetric flights were used to reconstruct coastal evolution between 1977 and 1999. During this period, extensive accretion was recorded updrift of human structures at harbors and ports, e.g., Scoglitti (105.6 m), Donnalucata (52.8 m), and Pozzallo (94.6 m). Conversely, erosion was recorded in downdrift areas, with maximum values at Modica Stream mouth (63.8 m) and Point Castellazzo (35.2 m). Assessments were subsequently divided into four categories ranging from "high erosion" to "accretion." Several sources were examined to assess human activities and land use. The latter was mapped and divided into four categories, ranging from "very high" to "no capital" land use. Subsequently, coastal erosion vulnerability was assessed by combining land use categories with recorded coastline behavior. Results showed "very high" to "high" vulnerability along 5.8% and 16.6%, respectively, of the littoral, while 20.9% and 56.7%, respectively, was found to exhibit "medium" and "low/very low" vulnerability. A very good agreement between predicted coastal vulnerability and coastal trend had been observed over recent years. Furthermore, several human structures and activities are located within the "imminent collapse zone (ICZ)" which reached maximum values of 17.5 m at Modica Stream and 13.5 m at Point Braccetto.

Developing a Composite Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment Model Combining DRASTIC with Agricultural Land Use in Choushui River Alluvial Fan, Central Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shih-Kai; Hsieh, Chih-Heng; Tsai, Cheng-Bin

2017-04-01

Aquifer vulnerability assessment is considered to be an effective tool in controlling potential pollution which is critical for groundwater management. The Choushui River alluvial fan, located in central Taiwan, is an agricultural area with complex crop patterns and various irrigation schemes, which increased the difficulties in groundwater resource management. The aim of this study is to propose an integrated methodology to assess shallow groundwater vulnerability by including land-use impact on groundwater potential pollution. The original groundwater vulnerability methodology, DRASTIC, was modified by adding a land-use parameter in order to assess groundwater vulnerability under intense agricultural activities. To examine the prediction capacity of pollution for the modified DRASTIC model, various risk categories of contamination potentials were compared with observed nitrate-N obtained from groundwater monitoring network. It was found that for the original DRASTIC vulnerability map, some areas with low nitrate-N concentrations are covered within the high vulnerability areas, especially in the northern part of mid-fan areas, where rice paddy is the main crop and planted for two crop seasons per year. The low nitrate-N contamination potential of rice paddies may be resulted from the denitrification in the reduced root zone. By reducing the rating for rice paddies, the modified model was proved to be capable of increasing the precise of prediction in study area. The results can provide a basis for groundwater monitoring network design and effective preserve measures formulation in the mixed agricultural area. Keyword:Aquifer Vulnerability, Groundwater, DRASTIC, Nitrate-N

Frailty screening methods for predicting outcome of a comprehensive geriatric assessment in elderly patients with cancer: a systematic review.

PubMed

Hamaker, Marije E; Jonker, Judith M; de Rooij, Sophia E; Vos, Alinda G; Smorenburg, Carolien H; van Munster, Barbara C

2012-10-01

Comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) is done to detect vulnerability in elderly patients with cancer so that treatment can be adjusted accordingly; however, this process is time-consuming and pre-screening is often used to identify fit patients who are able to receive standard treatment versus those in whom a full CGA should be done. We aimed to assess which of the frailty screening methods available show the best sensitivity and specificity for predicting the presence of impairments on CGA in elderly patients with cancer. We did a systematic search of Medline and Embase, and a hand-search of conference abstracts, for studies on the association between frailty screening outcome and results of CGA in elderly patients with cancer. Our search identified 4440 reports, of which 22 publications from 14 studies, were included in this Review. Seven different frailty screening methods were assessed. The median sensitivity and specificity of each screening method for predicting frailty on CGA were as follows: Vulnerable Elders Survey-13 (VES-13), 68% and 78%; Geriatric 8 (G8), 87% and 61%; Triage Risk Screening Tool (TRST 1+; patient considered frail if one or more impairments present), 92% and 47%, Groningen Frailty Index (GFI) 57% and 86%, Fried frailty criteria 31% and 91%, Barber 59% and 79%, and abbreviated CGA (aCGA) 51% and 97%. However, even in case of the highest sensitivity, the negative predictive value was only roughly 60%. G8 and TRST 1+ had the highest sensitivity for frailty, but both had poor specificity and negative predictive value. These findings suggest that, for now, it might be beneficial for all elderly patients with cancer to receive a complete geriatric assessment, since available frailty screening methods have insufficient discriminative power to select patients for further assessment. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices (2011 Final)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA has released the final report titled, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices. This report was prepared by the National Center for Environmental Assessment's Global Climate Research Staff in the Office of Research and D...

REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT (REVA): TARGETING RISK MANAGEMENT ACTIONS AND PROVIDING OPTIONS FOR INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program is an approach to regional scale, priority-setting assessment being developed by EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD). ReVA will effectively informs decision-makers as to the magnitude, extent, distribution, and unc...

Assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk: an original multi-criteria modeling approach.

PubMed

Briand, Sylvie; Beresniak, Ariel; Nguyen, Tim; Yonli, Tajoua; Duru, Gerard; Kambire, Chantal; Perea, William

2009-07-14

Yellow fever (YF) virtually disappeared in francophone West African countries as a result of YF mass vaccination campaigns carried out between 1940 and 1953. However, because of the failure to continue mass vaccination campaigns, a resurgence of the deadly disease in many African countries began in the early 1980s. We developed an original modeling approach to assess YF epidemic risk (vulnerability) and to prioritize the populations to be vaccinated. We chose a two-step assessment of vulnerability at district level consisting of a quantitative and qualitative assessment per country. Quantitative assessment starts with data collection on six risk factors: five risk factors associated with "exposure" to virus/vector and one with "susceptibility" of a district to YF epidemics. The multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) modeling method was specifically adapted to reduce the five exposure variables to one aggregated exposure indicator. Health districts were then projected onto a two-dimensional graph to define different levels of vulnerability. Districts are presented on risk maps for qualitative analysis in consensus groups, allowing the addition of factors, such as population migrations or vector density, that could not be included in MCA. The example of rural districts in Burkina Faso show five distinct clusters of risk profiles. Based on this assessment, 32 of 55 districts comprising over 7 million people were prioritized for preventive vaccination campaigns. This assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk at the district level includes MCA modeling and consensus group modification. MCA provides a standardized way to reduce complexity. It supports an informed public health decision-making process that empowers local stakeholders through the consensus group. This original approach can be applied to any disease with documented risk factors.

A global standard for monitoring coastal wetland vulnerability to accelerated sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webb, Edward L.; Friess, Daniel A.; Krauss, Ken W.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Phelps, Jacob

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise threatens coastal salt-marshes and mangrove forests around the world, and a key determinant of coastal wetland vulnerability is whether its surface elevation can keep pace with rising sea level. Globally, a large data gap exists because wetland surface and shallow subsurface processes remain unaccounted for by traditional vulnerability assessments using tide gauges. Moreover, those processes vary substantially across wetlands, so modelling platforms require relevant local data. The low-cost, simple, high-precision rod surface-elevation table–marker horizon (RSET-MH) method fills this critical data gap, can be paired with spatial data sets and modelling and is financially and technically accessible to every country with coastal wetlands. Yet, RSET deployment has been limited to a few regions and purposes. A coordinated expansion of monitoring efforts, including development of regional networks that could support data sharing and collaboration, is crucial to adequately inform coastal climate change adaptation policy at several scales.

Physical assessment of coastal vulnerability under enhanced land subsidence in Semarang, Indonesia, using multi-sensor satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Husnayaen; Rimba, A. Besse; Osawa, Takahiro; Parwata, I. Nyoman Sudi; As-syakur, Abd. Rahman; Kasim, Faizal; Astarini, Ida Ayu

2018-04-01

Research has been conducted in Semarang, Indonesia, to assess coastal vulnerability under enhanced land subsidence using multi-sensor satellite data, including the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band SAR (PALSAR), Landsat TM, IKONOS, and TOPEX/Poseidon. A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was constructed to estimate the level of vulnerability of a coastline approximately 48.68 km in length using seven physical variables, namely, land subsidence, relative sea level change, coastal geomorphology, coastal slope, shoreline change, mean tidal range, and significant wave height. A comparison was also performed between a CVI calculated using seven parameters and a CVI using six parameters, the latter of which excludes the land subsidence parameter, to determine the effects of land subsidence during the coastal vulnerability assessment. This study showed that the accuracy of coastal vulnerability was increased 40% by adding the land subsidence factor (i.e., CVI 6 parameters = 53%, CVI 7 parameters = 93%). Moreover, Kappa coefficient indicated very good agreement (0.90) for CVI 7 parameters and fair agreement (0.3) for CVI 6 parameters. The results indicate that the area of very high vulnerability increased by 7% when land subsidence was added. Hence, using the CVI calculation including land subsidence parameters, the very high vulnerability area is determined to be 20% of the total coastline or 9.7 km of the total 48.7 km of coastline. This study proved that land subsidence has significant influence on coastal vulnerability in Semarang.

Analysis of Core Stability Exercise Effect on the Physical and Psychological Function of Elderly Women Vulnerable to Falls during Obstacle Negotiation.

PubMed

Ko, Dae-Sik; Jung, Dae-In; Jeong, Mi-Ae

2014-11-01

[Purpose] The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of core stability exercise (CSE) on the physical and psychological functions of elderly women while negotiating general obstacles. [Subjects and Methods] After allocating 10 elderly women each to the core stability training group and the control group, we carried out Performance-Oriented Mobility Assessment (POMA) and measured crossing velocity (CV), maximum vertical heel clearance (MVHC), and knee flexion angle for assessing physical performances. We evaluated depression and fear of falling for assessing psychological functions. [Results] Relative to the control group, the core stability training group showed statistically significant overall changes after the training session: an increase in POMA scores, faster CV, lower MVHC, and a decrease in knee flexion angle. Furthermore, depression and fear of falling decreased significantly. [Conclusion] CSE can have a positive effect on the improvement of physical and psychological performances of older women who are vulnerable to falls as they negotiate everyday obstacles.

Flood risks in urbanized areas - multi-sensoral approaches using remotely sensed data for risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taubenböck, H.; Wurm, M.; Netzband, M.; Zwenzner, H.; Roth, A.; Rahman, A.; Dech, S.

2011-02-01

Estimating flood risks and managing disasters combines knowledge in climatology, meteorology, hydrology, hydraulic engineering, statistics, planning and geography - thus a complex multi-faceted problem. This study focuses on the capabilities of multi-source remote sensing data to support decision-making before, during and after a flood event. With our focus on urbanized areas, sample methods and applications show multi-scale products from the hazard and vulnerability perspective of the risk framework. From the hazard side, we present capabilities with which to assess flood-prone areas before an expected disaster. Then we map the spatial impact during or after a flood and finally, we analyze damage grades after a flood disaster. From the vulnerability side, we monitor urbanization over time on an urban footprint level, classify urban structures on an individual building level, assess building stability and quantify probably affected people. The results show a large database for sustainable development and for developing mitigation strategies, ad-hoc coordination of relief measures and organizing rehabilitation.

Multidimensional Approach for Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment: Framing the Territorial Impacts in Two Municipalities in Portugal.

PubMed

Tavares, Alexandre Oliveira; Barros, José Leandro; Santos, Angela

2017-04-01

This study presents a new multidimensional methodology for tsunami vulnerability assessment that combines the morphological, structural, social, and tax component of vulnerability. This new approach can be distinguished from previous methodologies that focused primarily on the evaluation of potentially affected buildings and did not use tsunami numerical modeling. The methodology was applied to the Figueira da Foz and Vila do Bispo municipalities in Portugal. For each area, the potential tsunami-inundated areas were calculated considering the 1755 Lisbon tsunami, which is the greatest disaster caused by natural hazards that ever occurred in Portugal. Furthermore, the four components of the vulnerability were calculated to obtain a composite vulnerability index. This methodology enables us to differentiate the two areas in their vulnerability, highlighting the characteristics of the territory components. This methodology can be a starting point for the creation of a local assessment framework at the municipal scale related to tsunami risk. In addition, the methodology is an important support for the different local stakeholders. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Vulnerability of larval and juvenile white sturgeon to barotrauma: can they handle the pressure?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Richard S.; Cook, Katrina V.; Pflugrath, Brett D.

2013-07-01

Techniques were developed to determine which life stages of fish are vulnerable to barotrauma from expansion of internal gases during decompression. Eggs, larvae and juvenile hatchery-reared white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus; up to 91 days post hatch; dph), were decompressed to assess vulnerability to barotrauma and identify initial swim bladder inflation. Barotrauma related injury and mortality were first observed 9 dph, on the same day as initial exogenous feeding. However, barotrauma related injury did not occur again until swim bladder inflation 75 dph (visible from necropsy and x-ray radiographs). Swim bladder inflation was not consistent among individuals, with only 44% beingmore » inflated 91 dph. Additionally, swim bladder inflation did not appear to be size dependent among fish ranging in total length from 61-153 mm at 91 dph. The use of a combination of decompression tests and x-ray radiography was validated as a method to determine initial swim bladder inflation and vulnerability to barotrauma. Extending these techniques to other species and life history stages would help to determine fish susceptibility to hydroturbine passage and aid in fish conservation.« less

Measuring dynamics of household vulnerability in selected coastal megacities to inform transformative adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birkmann, J.; Solecki, W. D.

2016-12-01

Understanding conditions and dynamics of household vulnerability and risk is key for building community resilience. Two different methodological approaches of vulnerability, risk and resilience assessment for selected global megacities are presented to address this research issue. First, an indicator-based approach was executed to compare susceptibility, coping and adaptive capacities for Lagos, Kolkata, Lagos, London, New York, and Tokyo on a neighborhood by neighborhood scale. Second, a household survey that has been conducted in Kolkata, Lagos, and New York to explore specific features of susceptibility, risk management capacities and transformations within at risk neighborhoods. The results of both methods underscore the dynamics of vulnerability. Lessons learned for disaster risk management and urban planning are derived, particularly in terms of defining priorities for a more inclusive and resilient urban development, and transformative adaptation. The findings also provide opportunity to critically review the potential outcomes of the New Urban Agenda (outcome of UN-Habitat III). The research has been undertaken within a larger international research team in the Belmont funded project Transformation of Urban Coasts.

Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Nicaragua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrne, T. R.; Townshend, I.; Byrne, J. M.; McDaniel, S. A.

2013-12-01

While there is a growing recognition of the impact that climate change may have on human development, there has been a shift in focus from an impacts-led assessment approach towards a vulnerability-led assessment approach. This research operationalizes the IPCC's definition of vulnerability in a sub-national assessment to understand how different factors that shape vulnerability to climate change vary spatially across rural Nicaragua. The research utilizes the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' (FAO UN) CropWat model to evaluate how the annual yield of two of Nicaragua's staple crops may change under projected changes in temperature and precipitation. This analysis of agricultural sensitivity under exposure to climate change is then overlain with an indicator-based assessment of adaptive capacity in rural Nicaraguan farming households. Adaptive capacity was evaluated using household survey data from the 2001 National Household Survey on Living Standards Measurement, which was provided to us by the FAO UN. The result is a map representing current vulnerability to future climate change, and can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions in rural Nicaragua.

Assessing mental health and violence on college campuses using the vulnerability model.

PubMed

Ponsford, Lisa R

2016-04-01

Violence on college campuses has become increasingly more common than in previous years. Nearly 73% of students with a mental health condition living on campus experience a mental health crisis. College students arriving on campuses today come with different needs, expectations for services, and with different risk factors than in previous years. Advanced practice registered nurses (APRNs) in college health settings have the ability to recognize these changing trends and assist with improving the mental health of this population. A critical analysis of an exemplar college campus is explored using the vulnerability model to assess risks that can lead to unnecessary and preventable violence on college campuses. The vulnerability model is a comprehensive approach utilized to guide an assessment to identify both individual and community risk factors influencing health and healthcare environments. The use of the vulnerability model illustrated in this article reveals its usefulness in identifying the risk and needs for this population. APRNs and student health centers are positioned well to utilize the vulnerability model in assessing the needs of college campuses to improve outcomes of students. ©2016 American Association of Nurse Practitioners.

NDE to Manage Atmospheric SCC in Canisters for Dry Storage of Spent Fuel: An Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyer, Ryan M.; Pardini, Allan F.; Cuta, Judith M.

2013-09-01

This report documents efforts to assess representative horizontal (Transuclear NUHOMS®) and vertical (Holtec HI-STORM) storage systems for the implementation of non-destructive examination (NDE) methods or techniques to manage atmospheric stress corrosion cracking (SCC) in canisters for dry storage of used nuclear fuel. The assessment is conducted by assessing accessibility and deployment, environmental compatibility, and applicability of NDE methods. A recommendation of this assessment is to focus on bulk ultrasonic and eddy current techniques for direct canister monitoring of atmospheric SCC. This assessment also highlights canister regions that may be most vulnerable to atmospheric SCC to guide the use of bulkmore » ultrasonic and eddy current examinations. An assessment of accessibility also identifies canister regions that are easiest and more difficult to access through the ventilation paths of the concrete shielding modules. A conceivable sampling strategy for canister inspections is to sample only the easiest to access portions of vulnerable regions. There are aspects to performing an NDE inspection of dry canister storage system (DCSS) canisters for atmospheric SCC that have not been addressed in previous performance studies. These aspects provide the basis for recommendations of future efforts to determine the capability and performance of eddy current and bulk ultrasonic examinations for atmospheric SCC in DCSS canisters. Finally, other important areas of investigation are identified including the development of instrumented surveillance specimens to identify when conditions are conducive for atmospheric SCC, characterization of atmospheric SCC morphology, and an assessment of air flow patterns over canister surfaces and their influence on chloride deposition.« less

Benefit-cost assessment of the use of LORAN to mitigate GPS vulnerability for positioning, navigation, and timing services

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-03-30

In 2001, a Volpe Center study assessed the vulnerability of the transportation system to : loss of the Global Positioning System (GPS).1 Subsequent to this assessment, the : Secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation initiated an examination ...

Case Studies of Water Utility Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment [External Review Draft Report

EPA Science Inventory

This report presents a series of case studies describing the approaches taken by four water utilities in the United States to assess their vulnerability to climate change. The report is not intended to be a comprehensive listing of assessment approaches or utilities conducting v...

75 FR 51806 - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-23

... case studies describing the approaches currently being taken by four water utilities to assess their... series of case studies describing the approaches currently being taken by four water utilities in the... Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency...

Regulatory Guide on Conducting a Security Vulnerability Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ek, David R.

This document will provide guidelines on conducting a security vulnerability assessment at a facility regulated by the Radiation Protection Centre. The guidelines provide a performance approach assess security effectiveness. The guidelines provide guidance for a review following the objectives outlined in IAEA NSS#11 for Category 1, 2, & 3 sources.

Report: Results of Technical Network Vulnerability Assessment: EPA’s Erlanger Building

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #10-P-0211, September 7, 2010. Vulnerability testing of EPA’s Erlanger Building network conducted in June 2010 identified Internet Protocol addresses with numerous high-risk and medium-risk vulnerabilities.

Report: Results of Technical Network Vulnerability Assessment: EPA’s Region 4

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #10-P-0213, September 7, 2010. Vulnerability testing of EPA’s Region 4 network conducted in June 2010 identified Internet Protocol addresses with numerous high-risk and medium-risk vulnerabilities.

Security risk assessment: applying the concepts of fuzzy logic.

PubMed

Bajpai, Shailendra; Sachdeva, Anish; Gupta, J P

2010-01-15

Chemical process industries (CPI) handling hazardous chemicals in bulk can be attractive targets for deliberate adversarial actions by terrorists, criminals and disgruntled employees. It is therefore imperative to have comprehensive security risk management programme including effective security risk assessment techniques. In an earlier work, it has been shown that security risk assessment can be done by conducting threat and vulnerability analysis or by developing Security Risk Factor Table (SRFT). HAZOP type vulnerability assessment sheets can be developed that are scenario based. In SRFT model, important security risk bearing factors such as location, ownership, visibility, inventory, etc., have been used. In this paper, the earlier developed SRFT model has been modified using the concepts of fuzzy logic. In the modified SRFT model, two linguistic fuzzy scales (three-point and four-point) are devised based on trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Human subjectivity of different experts associated with previous SRFT model is tackled by mapping their scores to the newly devised fuzzy scale. Finally, the fuzzy score thus obtained is defuzzyfied to get the results. A test case of a refinery is used to explain the method and compared with the earlier work.

Social impact assessment in mining projects in Northern Finland: Comparing practice to theory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suopajärvi, Leena, E-mail: leena.suopajarvi@ulapland.fi

The paper discusses social impact assessments (SIA) for mining projects in light of the international principles and guidelines for such assessments and the academic literature in the field. The data consist of environmental impact assessment (EIA) programmes and reports for six mining projects that have started up in northern Finland in the 2000s. A first observation is that the role of the SIAs in the EIA programmes and reports studied was quite minor: measured in number of pages, the assessments account for three or four percent of the total. This study analyses the data collection, research methodology and conceptual premisesmore » used in the SIAs. It concludes that the assessments do not fully meet the high standards of the international principles and guidelines set out for them: for example, elderly men are over-represented in the data and no efforts were made to identify and bring to the fore vulnerable groups. Moreover, the reliability of the assessments is difficult to gauge, because the qualitative methods are not described and where quantitative methods were used, details such as non-response rates to questionnaires are not discussed. At the end of the paper, the SIAs are discussed in terms of Jürgen Habermas' theory of knowledge interests, with the conclusion that the assessments continue the empirical analytical tradition of the social sciences and exhibit a technical knowledge interest. -- Highlights: • Paper investigates social impact assessments in Finnish mining projects. • Role of social impact assessment is minor in whole EIA-process. • Mining SIAs give the voice for elderly men, vulnerable groups are not identified. • Assessment of SIAs is difficult because of lacking transparency in reporting. • SIAs belong to empirical analytical tradition with technical knowledge interest.« less

Low carbon technology performance vs infrastructure vulnerability: analysis through the local and global properties space.

PubMed

Dawson, David A; Purnell, Phil; Roelich, Katy; Busch, Jonathan; Steinberger, Julia K

2014-11-04

Renewable energy technologies, necessary for low-carbon infrastructure networks, are being adopted to help reduce fossil fuel dependence and meet carbon mitigation targets. The evolution of these technologies has progressed based on the enhancement of technology-specific performance criteria, without explicitly considering the wider system (global) impacts. This paper presents a methodology for simultaneously assessing local (technology) and global (infrastructure) performance, allowing key technological interventions to be evaluated with respect to their effect on the vulnerability of wider infrastructure systems. We use exposure of low carbon infrastructure to critical material supply disruption (criticality) to demonstrate the methodology. A series of local performance changes are analyzed; and by extension of this approach, a method for assessing the combined criticality of multiple materials for one specific technology is proposed. Via a case study of wind turbines at both the material (magnets) and technology (turbine generators) levels, we demonstrate that analysis of a given intervention at different levels can lead to differing conclusions regarding the effect on vulnerability. Infrastructure design decisions should take a systemic approach; without these multilevel considerations, strategic goals aimed to help meet low-carbon targets, that is, through long-term infrastructure transitions, could be significantly jeopardized.

The importance of negative predictive value (NPV) of vulnerable elderly survey (VES 13) as a pre-screening test in older patients with cancer.

PubMed

Castagneto, B; Di Pietrantonj, C; Stevani, I; Anfossi, A; Arzese, M; Giorcelli, L; Giaretto, L

2013-12-01

The importance of prognostic value of the comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) is well known in geriatric oncology, but there is no consensus on the use of alternative abbreviated screening methods for the evaluation of older patient disabilities. The participants in this study underwent vulnerable elderly survey 13 (VES 13) at first entry in Oncology Department and were later assessed by a geriatrician according to CGA. A score >3 for VES 13 identified patients as vulnerable. Aim of this study was to evaluate the specificity, sensibility, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of VES 13 versus cumulative illness rating scale (CIRS), activities of daily living (ADL), instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), and short portable mental status questionnaire (SPMSQ). Hundred and seventeen patients (mean age 78.8 years) entered the study. The NPV of VES was 74.6% for CIRS, 90.1% for IADL, 93.0% for ADL, and 100% for SPMSQ. As for PPV, the VES 13 showed no accuracy. We can conclude that VES 13 demonstrated sufficient accuracy as a screening test in identifying elderly "fit" patients in order to spare the more time-consuming CGA.

Costal vulnerability systems-network using Fuzzy and Bayesian approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taramelli, A.; Valentini, E.; Filipponi, F.; Nguyen Xuan, A.; Arosio, M.

2016-12-01

Marine drivers such as surge in the context of SLR, are threatening low-lying coastal plains. In order to deal with disturbances a deeper understanding of benefits deriving from ecosystem services assesment, management and planning (e.g. the role of dune ridges in surge mitigation and climate adaptation) can enhance the resilience of coastal systems. In this frame assessing the vulnerability is a key concern of many SOS (social, ecological, institutional) that deals with several challenges like the definition of Essential Variables (EVs) able to synthesize the required information, the assignment of different weight to be attributed to each considered variable, the selection of method for combining the relevant variables, etc.. To this end it is unclear how SLR, subsidence and erosion might affect coastal subsistence resources because of highly complex interactions and because of the subjective system of weighting many variables and their interaction within the systems. In this contribution, making the best use of many EO products, in situ data and modelling, we propose a multidimensional surge vulnerability assessment that aims at combining together geophysical and socioeconomic variable on the base of different approaches: 1) Fuzzy Logic; 2) Bayesian approach. The final goal is providing insight in understanding how to quantify regulating ecosystem services.

Mapping Extreme Heat Vulnerability and Health Outcomes to inform the District of Columbia's Climate Adaptation Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Declet-Barreto, J.; Wilhelmi, O.; Goggans, A.

2016-12-01

In this collaborative engagement, scientists are partnering with the District of Columbia (DC) to develop an extreme heat vulnerability assessment. To do so, we map socio-demographic and built environment indicators of extreme heat vulnerability in Census Tracts in DC neighborhoods. In order to provide information useful for DC public health and urban planning practitioners, we aggregate the indicators into an index of extreme heat vulnerability. We compare the index against heat-related call data from DC's 911 system to better understand the socio-spatial distribution of extreme heat-related health outcomes. Our assessment can help inform the District's Climate Adaptation Plan as well as increase public engagement in reducing vulnerability to extreme heat.

Climate vulnerability of drinking water supplies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selmeczi, Pál; Homolya, Emese; Rotárné Szalkai, Ágnes

2016-04-01

Extreme weather conditions in Hungary led to difficulties in drinking water management on diverse occasions in the past. Due to reduced water resources and the coexisting high demand for drinking water in dry summer periods the availability of a number of water supplies became insufficient therefore causing limitations in water access. In some other cases, as a result of floods and flash floods over karstic areas evolving in consequence of excessive precipitation, several water supplies had to be excluded in order to avoid the risk of infections. More frequent occurrence of extreme weather conditions and further possible changes in the future induce the necessity for an analysis of the vulnerability of drinking water resources to climate change. Since 95% of the total drinking water supply in Hungary originates from subsurface layers, significance of groundwater resources is outstanding. The aim of our work carried out in the frames of the NAGiS (National Adaptation Geo-information System) project was to build up a methodology for the study and determination of the vulnerability of drinking water supplies to climate. The task covered analyses of climatic parameters influencing drinking water supplies principally and hydrogeological characteristics of the geological media that significantly determines vulnerability. Effects on drinking water resources and their reduction or exclusion may imply societal and economic consequences therefore we extended the analyses to the investigation of possibilities concerning the adaptation capacity to changed conditions. We applied the CIVAS (Climate Impact and Vulnerability Assessment Scheme) model developed in the frames of the international climate research project CLAVIER (Climate Change and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern Europe) to characterize climate vulnerability of drinking water supplies. The CIVAS model, being based on the combined evaluation of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability, provides a unified methodical scheme to quantitative climatic impact assessment. We investigate the effects of climate change in the integrated context of exposure, sensitivity, impact, adaptive capacity and vulnerability, thus apart from the expected environmental changes societal and economic processes are also taken into account. Climate vulnerability has been determined on the basis of the distribution and categorisation of the chosen indicators. Further effects, independent of climate change and caused by anthropogenic activity, result in similar phenomena. It is often difficult to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic effects that occur simultaneously therefore in the analyses of vulnerability anthropogenic activity is needed to be taken into account. We determined climate vulnerability using data of two different climate models and for two separate future time periods. Results on the basis of both climate model projections suggest that a considerable number of regions in the area under investigation appear to be vulnerable to climate change to a certain extent and vulnerability intensifies to the end of the 21th century.

Buildings vs. ballistics: Quantifying the vulnerability of buildings to volcanic ballistic impacts using field studies and pneumatic cannon experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, G. T.; Kennedy, B. M.; Wilson, T. M.; Fitzgerald, R. H.; Tsunematsu, K.; Teissier, A.

2017-09-01

Recent casualties in volcanic eruptions due to trauma from blocks and bombs necessitate more rigorous, ballistic specific risk assessment. Quantitative assessments are limited by a lack of experimental and field data on the vulnerability of buildings to ballistic hazards. An improved, quantitative understanding of building vulnerability to ballistic impacts is required for informing appropriate life safety actions and other risk reduction strategies. We assessed ballistic impacts to buildings from eruptions at Usu Volcano and Mt. Ontake in Japan and compiled available impact data from eruptions elsewhere to identify common damage patterns from ballistic impacts to buildings. We additionally completed a series of cannon experiments which simulate ballistic block impacts to building claddings to investigate their performance over a range of ballistic projectile velocities, masses and energies. Our experiments provide new insights by quantifying (1) the hazard associated with post-impact shrapnel from building and rock fragments; (2) the effect of impact obliquity on damage; and (3) the additional impact resistance buildings possess when claddings are struck in areas directly supported by framing components. This was not well identified in previous work which may have underestimated building vulnerability to ballistic hazards. To improve assessment of building vulnerability to ballistics, we use our experimental and field data to develop quantitative vulnerability models known as fragility functions. Our fragility functions and field studies show that although unreinforced buildings are highly vulnerable to large ballistics (> 20 cm diameter), they can still provide shelter, preventing death during eruptions.

An early warning system for groundwater pollution based on the assessment of groundwater pollution risks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Weihong.; Zhao, Yongsheng; Hong, Mei; Guo, Xiaodong

2009-04-01

Groundwater pollution usually is complex and concealed, remediation of which is difficult, high cost, time-consuming, and ineffective. An early warning system for groundwater pollution is needed that detects groundwater quality problems and gets the information necessary to make sound decisions before massive groundwater quality degradation occurs. Groundwater pollution early warning were performed by considering comprehensively the current groundwater quality, groundwater quality varying trend and groundwater pollution risk . The map of the basic quality of the groundwater was obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation or BP neural network evaluation. Based on multi-annual groundwater monitoring datasets, Water quality state in sometime of the future was forecasted using time-sequenced analyzing methods. Water quality varying trend was analyzed by Spearman's rank correlative coefficient.The relative risk map of groundwater pollution was estimated through a procedure that identifies, cell by cell,the values of three factors, that is inherent vulnerability, load risk of pollution source and contamination hazard. DRASTIC method was used to assess inherent vulnerability of aquifer. Load risk of pollution source was analyzed based on the potential of contamination and pollution degree. Assessment index of load risk of pollution source which involves the variety of pollution source, quantity of contaminants, releasing potential of pollutants, and distance were determined. The load risks of all sources considered by GIS overlay technology. Early warning model of groundwater pollution combined with ComGIS technology organically, the regional groundwater pollution early-warning information system was developed, and applied it into Qiqiha'er groundwater early warning. It can be used to evaluate current water quality, to forecast water quality changing trend, and to analyze space-time influencing range of groundwater quality by natural process and human activities. Keywords: groundwater pollution, early warning, aquifer vulnerability, pollution load, pollution risk, ComGIS

Assessment of Critical Events Corridors through Multivariate Cascading Outages Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng

2011-10-17

Massive blackouts of electrical power systems in North America over the past decade has focused increasing attention upon ways to identify and simulate network events that may potentially lead to widespread network collapse. This paper summarizes a method to simulate power-system vulnerability to cascading failures to a supplied set of initiating events synonymously termed as Extreme Events. The implemented simulation method is currently confined to simulating steady state power-system response to a set of extreme events. The outlined method of simulation is meant to augment and provide a new insight into bulk power transmission network planning that at present remainsmore » mainly confined to maintaining power system security for single and double component outages under a number of projected future network operating conditions. Although one of the aims of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility of simulating network vulnerability to cascading outages, a more important goal has been to determine vulnerable parts of the network that may potentially be strengthened in practice so as to mitigate system susceptibility to cascading failures. This paper proposes to demonstrate a systematic approach to analyze extreme events and identify vulnerable system elements that may be contributing to cascading outages. The hypothesis of critical events corridors is proposed to represent repeating sequential outages that can occur in the system for multiple initiating events. The new concept helps to identify system reinforcements that planners could engineer in order to 'break' the critical events sequences and therefore lessen the likelihood of cascading outages. This hypothesis has been successfully validated with a California power system model.« less

Report: Results of Technical Network Vulnerability Assessment: EPA’s Research Triangle Park Finance Center

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #09-P-0227, August 31, 2009. Vulnerability testing conducted in April 2009 of EPA’s Research Triangle Park Finance Center network identified Internet Protocol addresses with several highrisk vulnerabilities.

Report: Results of Technical Network Vulnerability Assessment: EPA’s Radiation and Indoor Environments National Laboratory

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #09-P-0053, December 9, 2008. Vulnerability testing of EPA’s Radiation and Indoor Environments National Laboratory (R&IEN) network identified Internet Protocol addresses with medium-risk vulnerabilities.

Report: Results of Technical Network Vulnerability Assessment: EPA’s Ronald Reagan Building

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #10-P-0212, September 7, 2010. Vulnerability testing of EPA’s Ronald Reagan Building network conducted in June 2010 identified Internet Protocol addresses with numerous high-risk and medium-risk vulnerabilities.

Development of hazard-compatible building fragility and vulnerability models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karaca, E.; Luco, N.

2008-01-01

We present a methodology for transforming the structural and non-structural fragility functions in HAZUS into a format that is compatible with conventional seismic hazard analysis information. The methodology makes use of the building capacity (or pushover) curves and related building parameters provided in HAZUS. Instead of the capacity spectrum method applied in HAZUS, building response is estimated by inelastic response history analysis of corresponding single-degree-of-freedom systems under a large number of earthquake records. Statistics of the building response are used with the damage state definitions from HAZUS to derive fragility models conditioned on spectral acceleration values. Using the developed fragility models for structural and nonstructural building components, with corresponding damage state loss ratios from HAZUS, we also derive building vulnerability models relating spectral acceleration to repair costs. Whereas in HAZUS the structural and nonstructural damage states are treated as if they are independent, our vulnerability models are derived assuming "complete" nonstructural damage whenever the structural damage state is complete. We show the effects of considering this dependence on the final vulnerability models. The use of spectral acceleration (at selected vibration periods) as the ground motion intensity parameter, coupled with the careful treatment of uncertainty, makes the new fragility and vulnerability models compatible with conventional seismic hazard curves and hence useful for extensions to probabilistic damage and loss assessment.

A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

PubMed

Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-03-01

This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mapping malaria risk and vulnerability in the United Republic of Tanzania: a spatial explicit model.

PubMed

Hagenlocher, Michael; Castro, Marcia C

2015-01-01

Outbreaks of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) impose a heavy burden on vulnerable populations. Despite recent progress in eradication and control, malaria remains the most prevalent VBD. Integrative approaches that take into account environmental, socioeconomic, demographic, biological, cultural, and political factors contributing to malaria risk and vulnerability are needed to effectively reduce malaria burden. Although the focus on malaria risk has increasingly gained ground, little emphasis has been given to develop quantitative methods for assessing malaria risk including malaria vulnerability in a spatial explicit manner. Building on a conceptual risk and vulnerability framework, we propose a spatial explicit approach for modeling relative levels of malaria risk - as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability - in the United Republic of Tanzania. A logistic regression model was employed to identify a final set of risk factors and their contribution to malaria endemicity based on multidisciplinary geospatial information. We utilized a Geographic Information System for the construction and visualization of a malaria vulnerability index and its integration into a spatially explicit malaria risk map. The spatial pattern of malaria risk was very heterogeneous across the country. Malaria risk was higher in Mainland areas than in Zanzibar, which is a result of differences in both malaria entomological inoculation rate and prevailing vulnerabilities. Areas of high malaria risk were identified in the southeastern part of the country, as well as in two distinct "hotspots" in the northwestern part of the country bordering Lake Victoria, while concentrations of high malaria vulnerability seem to occur in the northwestern, western, and southeastern parts of the mainland. Results were visualized using both 10×10 km(2) grids and subnational administrative units. The presented approach makes an important contribution toward a decision support tool. By decomposing malaria risk into its components, the approach offers evidence on which factors could be targeted for reducing malaria risk and vulnerability to the disease. Ultimately, results offer relevant information for place-based intervention planning and more effective spatial allocation of resources.

Cognitive Impairment, Vulnerability, and Mortality Post Ischemic Stroke: A Five-Year Follow-Up of the Action on Secondary Prevention Interventions and Rehabilitation in Stroke (ASPIRE-S) Cohort.

PubMed

Gaynor, Eva; Rohde, Daniela; Large, Margaret; Mellon, Lisa; Hall, Patricia; Brewer, Linda; Conway, Orla; Hickey, Anne; Bennett, Kathleen; Dolan, Eamon; Callaly, Elizabeth; Williams, David

2018-05-23

The aim of this study was to examine predictors of mortality in patients 5 years after ischemic stroke, focusing on cognitive impairment, vulnerability, and vascular risk factors assessed at 6 months post stroke. Patients from the Action on Secondary Prevention Interventions and Rehabilitation in Stroke (ASPIRE-S) cohort were followed up 5 years post ischemic stroke. Vascular risk factors, cognitive impairment, and vulnerability were assessed at 6 months post stroke. Cognitive impairment was assessed using a cutoff score lower than 26 on the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA). Vulnerability was defined as a score of 3 or higher on the Vulnerable Elders Scale (VES). Mortality and date of death were ascertained using hospital records, death notifications, and contact with general practitioners. Predictors of mortality were explored using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are presented. Sixty-three of 256 patients (24.6%) assessed at 6 months post stroke had died within 5 years. Cognitive impairment (HR [95% CI]: 2.19 [1.42-3.39]), vulnerability (HR [95% CI]: 5.23 [2.92-9.36]), atrial fibrillation (AF) (HR [95% CI]: 2.31 [1.80-2.96]), and dyslipidemia (HR [95% CI]: 1.90 [1.10-3.27]) were associated with increased risk of 5-year mortality. Vulnerability, cognitive impairment, AF, and dyslipidemia at 6 months were associated with increased risks of mortality 5 years post ischemic stroke. Identification and management of these risk factors should be emphasized in poststroke care. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Report for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory: May 23, 2014 -- June 5, 2015

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vogel, J.; O'Grady, M.; Renfrow, S.

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in Golden, Colorado, focuses on renewable energy and energy efficiency research. Its portfolio includes advancing renewable energy technologies that can help meet the nation's energy and environmental goals. NREL seeks to better understand the potential effects of climate change on the laboratory--and therefore on its mission--to ensure its ongoing success. Planning today for a changing climate can reduce NREL's risks and improve its resiliency to climate-related vulnerabilities. This report presents a vulnerability assessment for NREL. The assessment was conducted in fall 2014 to identify NREL's climate change vulnerabilities andmore » the aspects of NREL's mission or operations that may be affected by a changing climate.« less

Development of a decision support tool for assessing vulnerability of transportation networks.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-08-01

This research develops a decision support tool for assessing vulnerability of transportation networks. This report consists of 1) describing the trends of freight movements in Utah, 2) identifying the current and potential freight chokepoints/bottlen...

Vulnerability of Oregon hydrologic landscapes and streamflow to climate change

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrologic classification systems can provide a basis for broadscale assessments of the hydrologic functions of landscapes and watersheds and their responses to stressors. Such assessments could be particularly useful in determining hydrologic vulnerability from climate change. ...

The use of climate information in vulnerability assessments.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

This memorandum focuses on the use of climate information when performing a vulnerability : assessment, a topic that was discussed at the Newark Pilot Peer Exchange Workshop on May 4-5, : 2011. The memorandum describes several sources of climate info...

Transportation security research : coordination needed in selecting and implementing infrastructure vulnerability assessments

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-05-01

The Department of Transportation's (DOT) Research and Special Programs Administration (RSPA) began research in to assess the vulnerabilities of the nation's transportation infrastructure and develop needed improvements in security in June 2001. The g...

Vulnerability of Thai rice production to simultaneous climate and socioeconomic changes: a double exposure analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangpenchan, R.

2011-12-01

This research explores the vulnerability of Thai rice production to simultaneous exposure by climate and socioeconomic change -- so-called "double exposure." Both processes influence Thailand's rice production system, but the vulnerabilities associated with their interactions are unknown. To understand this double exposure, I adopts a mixed-method, qualitative-quantitative analytical approach consisting of three phases of analysis involving a Vulnerability Scoping Diagram, a Principal Component Analysis, and the EPIC crop model using proxy datasets collected from secondary data sources at provincial scales.The first and second phases identify key variables representing each of the three dimensions of vulnerability -- exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicating that the greatest vulnerability in the rice production system occurs in households and areas with high exposure to climate change, high sensitivity to climate and socioeconomic stress, and low adaptive capacity. In the third phase, the EPIC crop model simulates rice yields associated with future climate change projected by CSIRO and MIROC climate models. Climate change-only scenarios project the decrease in yields by 10% from the current productivity during 2016-2025 and 30% during 2045-2054. Scenarios applying both climate change and improved technology and management practices show that a 50% increase in rice production is possible, but requires strong collaboration between sectors to advance agricultural research and technology and requires strong adaptive capacity in the rice production system characterized by well-developed social capital, social networks, financial capacity, and infrastructure and household mobility at the local scale. The vulnerability assessment and climate and crop adaptation simulations used here provide useful information to decision makers developing vulnerability reduction plans in the face of concurrent climate and socioeconomic change.

Hydrogeology, Ground-Water-Age Dating, Water Quality, and Vulnerability of Ground Water to Contamination in a Part of the Whitewater Valley Aquifer System near Richmond, Indiana, 2002-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buszka, Paul M.; Watson, Lee R.; Greeman, Theodore K.

2007-01-01

Results of detailed water-quality analyses, ground-waterage dating, and dissolved-gas analyses indicated the vulnerability of ground water to specific types of contamination, the sequence of contaminant introduction to the aquifer relative to greenfield development, and processes that may mitigate the contamination. Concentrations of chloride and sodium and chloride/bromide weight ratios in sampled water from five wells indicated the vulnerability of the upper aquifer to roaddeicer contamination. Ground-water-age estimates from these wells indicated the onset of upgradient road-deicer use within the previous 25 years. Nitrate in the upper aquifer predates the post-1972 development, based on a ground-water-age date (30 years) and the nitrate concentration (5.12 milligrams per liter as nitrogen) in water from a deep well. Vulnerability of the aquifer to nitrate contamination is limited partially by denitrification. Detection of one to four atrazine transformation products in water samples from the upper aquifer indicated biological and hydrochemical processes that may limit the vulnerability of the ground water to atrazine contamination. Microbial processes also may limit the aquifer vulnerability to small inputs of halogenated aliphatic compounds, as indicated by microbial transformations of trichlorofluoromethane and trichlorotrifluoroethane relative to dichlorodifluoromethane. The vulnerability of ground water to contamination in other parts of the aquifer system also may be mitigated by hydrodynamic dispersion and biologically mediated transformations of nitrate, pesticides, and some organic compounds. Identification of the sequence of contamination and processes affecting the vulnerability of ground water to contamination would have been unlikely with conventional assessment methods.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of the Northern Gulf of Mexico to sea-level rise and coastal change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, E.A.; Barras, J.A.; Williams, S.J.; Twichell, D.C.

2010-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise along the Northern Gulf of Mexico from Galveston, TX, to Panama City, FL. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rate, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable are combined and an index value is calculated for 1-kilometer grid cells along the coast. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. The CVI assessment presented here builds on an earlier assessment conducted for the Gulf of Mexico. Recent higher resolution shoreline change, land loss, elevation, and subsidence data provide the foundation for a better assessment for the Northern Gulf of Mexico. The areas along the Northern Gulf of Mexico that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are parts of the Louisiana Chenier Plain, Teche-Vermillion Basin, and the Mississippi barrier islands, as well as most of the Terrebonne and Barataria Bay region and the Chandeleur Islands. These very high vulnerability areas have the highest rates of relative sea-level rise and the highest rates of shoreline change or land area loss. The information provided by coastal vulnerability assessments can be used in long-term coastal management and policy decision making.

Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability Through the Use of GIS Tools in South Sicily (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anfuso, Giorgio; Martínez Del Pozo, José Ángel

2009-03-01

This study assessed coastal erosion vulnerability along a 90-km sector, which included both erosional and accretionary beaches, and different levels of human occupation. Two aerial photogrammetric flights were used to reconstruct coastal evolution between 1977 and 1999. During this period, extensive accretion was recorded updrift of human structures at harbors and ports, e.g., Scoglitti (105.6 m), Donnalucata (52.8 m), and Pozzallo (94.6 m). Conversely, erosion was recorded in downdrift areas, with maximum values at Modica Stream mouth (63.8 m) and Point Castellazzo (35.2 m). Assessments were subsequently divided into four categories ranging from “high erosion” to “accretion.” Several sources were examined to assess human activities and land use. The latter was mapped and divided into four categories, ranging from “very high” to “no capital” land use. Subsequently, coastal erosion vulnerability was assessed by combining land use categories with recorded coastline behavior. Results showed “very high” to “high” vulnerability along 5.8% and 16.6%, respectively, of the littoral, while 20.9% and 56.7%, respectively, was found to exhibit “medium” and “low/very low” vulnerability. A very good agreement between predicted coastal vulnerability and coastal trend had been observed over recent years. Furthermore, several human structures and activities are located within the “imminent collapse zone (ICZ)” which reached maximum values of 17.5 m at Modica Stream and 13.5 m at Point Braccetto.

Assessing climate change and health vulnerability at the local level: Travis County, Texas.

PubMed

Prudent, Natasha; Houghton, Adele; Luber, George

2016-10-01

We created a measure to help comprehend population vulnerability to potential flooding and excessive heat events using health, built environment and social factors. Through principal component analysis (PCA), we created non-weighted sum index scores of literature-reviewed social and built environment characteristics. We created baseline poor health measures using 1999-2005 age-adjusted cardiovascular and combined diabetes and hypertension mortality rates to correspond with social-built environment indices. We mapped US Census block groups by linked age-adjusted mortality and a PCA-created social-built environment index. The goal was to measure flooding and excessive heat event vulnerability as proxies for population vulnerability to climate change for Travis County, Texas. This assessment identified communities where baseline poor health, social marginalisation and built environmental impediments intersected. Such assessments may assist targeted interventions and improve emergency preparedness in identified vulnerable communities, while fostering resilience through the focus of climate change adaptation policies at the local level. No claim to original US government works. Journal compilation © 2016 Overseas Development Institute.

GUIDED TOUR OF A WEB-BASED ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION TOOLKIT

EPA Science Inventory

Decision-making regarding the targeting of vulnerable resources and prioritization of actions requires synthesis of data on condition, vulnerability, and feasibility of risk management alternatives. EP A's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReV A) Program has evaluated existing a...

Report: Results of Technical Vulnerability Assessment: EPA’s Directory Service System Authentication and Authorization Servers

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #11-P-0597, September 9, 2011. Vulnerability testing of EPA’s directory service system authentication and authorization servers conducted in March 2011 identified authentication and authorization servers with numerous vulnerabilities.

Cyber and Physical Security Vulnerability Assessment for IoT-Based Smart Homes

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The Internet of Things (IoT) is an emerging paradigm focusing on the connection of devices, objects, or “things” to each other, to the Internet, and to users. IoT technology is anticipated to become an essential requirement in the development of smart homes, as it offers convenience and efficiency to home residents so that they can achieve better quality of life. Application of the IoT model to smart homes, by connecting objects to the Internet, poses new security and privacy challenges in terms of the confidentiality, authenticity, and integrity of the data sensed, collected, and exchanged by the IoT objects. These challenges make smart homes extremely vulnerable to different types of security attacks, resulting in IoT-based smart homes being insecure. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the possible security risks to develop a complete picture of the security status of smart homes. This article applies the operationally critical threat, asset, and vulnerability evaluation (OCTAVE) methodology, known as OCTAVE Allegro, to assess the security risks of smart homes. The OCTAVE Allegro method focuses on information assets and considers different information containers such as databases, physical papers, and humans. The key goals of this study are to highlight the various security vulnerabilities of IoT-based smart homes, to present the risks on home inhabitants, and to propose approaches to mitigating the identified risks. The research findings can be used as a foundation for improving the security requirements of IoT-based smart homes. PMID:29518023

Cyber and Physical Security Vulnerability Assessment for IoT-Based Smart Homes.

PubMed

Ali, Bako; Awad, Ali Ismail

2018-03-08

The Internet of Things (IoT) is an emerging paradigm focusing on the connection of devices, objects, or "things" to each other, to the Internet, and to users. IoT technology is anticipated to become an essential requirement in the development of smart homes, as it offers convenience and efficiency to home residents so that they can achieve better quality of life. Application of the IoT model to smart homes, by connecting objects to the Internet, poses new security and privacy challenges in terms of the confidentiality, authenticity, and integrity of the data sensed, collected, and exchanged by the IoT objects. These challenges make smart homes extremely vulnerable to different types of security attacks, resulting in IoT-based smart homes being insecure. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the possible security risks to develop a complete picture of the security status of smart homes. This article applies the operationally critical threat, asset, and vulnerability evaluation (OCTAVE) methodology, known as OCTAVE Allegro, to assess the security risks of smart homes. The OCTAVE Allegro method focuses on information assets and considers different information containers such as databases, physical papers, and humans. The key goals of this study are to highlight the various security vulnerabilities of IoT-based smart homes, to present the risks on home inhabitants, and to propose approaches to mitigating the identified risks. The research findings can be used as a foundation for improving the security requirements of IoT-based smart homes.

A TEST OF WATERSHED CLASSIFICATION SYSTEMS FOR ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

To facilitate extrapolation among watersheds, ecological risk assessments should be based on a model of underlying factors influencing watershed response, particularly vulnerability. We propose a conceptual model of landscape vulnerability to serve as a basis for watershed classi...

A multi criteria analog model for assessing the vulnerability of rural catchments to road spills of hazardous substances

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Siqueira, Hygor Evangelista; Pissarra, Teresa Cristina Tarlé; Farias do Valle Junior, Renato

Road spills of hazardous substances are common in developing countries due to increasing industrialization and traffic accidents, and represent a serious threat to soils and water in catchments. There is abundant literature on equations describing the wash-off of pollutants from roads during a storm event and there are a number of watershed models incorporating those equations in storm water quality algorithms that route runoff and pollution yields through a drainage system towards the catchment outlet. However, methods describing catchment vulnerability to contamination by road spills based solely on biophysical parameters are scarce. These methods could be particularly attractive to managersmore » because they can operate with a limited amount of easily collectable data, while still being able to provide important insights on the areas more prone to contamination within the studied watershed. The purpose of this paper was then to contribute with a new vulnerability model. To accomplish the goal, a selection of medium properties appearing in wash-off equations and routing algorithms were assembled and processed in a parametric framework based on multi criteria analysis to define the watershed vulnerability. However, parameters had to be adapted because wash-off equations and water quality models have been developed to operate primarily in the urban environment while the vulnerability model is meant to run in rural watersheds. The selected parameters were hillside slope, ground roughness (depending on land use), soil permeability (depending on soil type), distance to water courses and stream density. The vulnerability model is a spatially distributed algorithm that was prepared to run under the IDRISI Selva software, a GIS platform capable of handling spatial and alphanumeric data and execute the necessary terrain model, hydrographic and thematic analyses. For illustrative purposes, the vulnerability model was applied to the legally protected Environmental Protection Area (APA), located in the Uberaba region, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. In this region, the risk of accidents causing chemical spills is preoccupying because large quantities of dangerous materials are transported in two important distribution highways while the APA is fundamental for the protection of water resources, the riverine ecosystems and remnants of native vegetation. In some tested scenarios, model results show 60% of vulnerable areas within the studied area. The most sensitive parameter to vulnerability is soil type. To prevent soils from contamination, specific measures were proposed involving minimization of land use conflicts that would presumably raise the soil's organic matter and in the sequel restore the soil's structural functions. Additionally, the present study proposed the preservation and reinforcement of riparian forests as one measure to protect the quality of surface water. - Highlights: • A multi criteria analog model was developed to assess rural catchment vulnerability along roads. • Model parameters were defined by analogy with urban wash-off equations and routing algorithms. • The model mixes up various biophysical and socio-economic parameters. • Model application was based on a scenario analysis. • The study is focused on the Environmental Protection Area of Uberaba River, Brazil.« less

Assessing European wild fire vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oehler, F.; Oliveira, S.; Barredo, J. I.; Camia, A.; Ayanz, J. San Miguel; Pettenella, D.; Mavsar, R.

2012-04-01

Wild fire vulnerability is a measure of potential socio-economic damage caused by a fire in a specific area. As such it is an important component of long-term fire risk management, helping policy-makers take informed decisions about adequate expenditures for fire prevention and suppression, and to target those regions at highest risk. This paper presents a first approach to assess wild fire vulnerability at the European level. A conservative approach was chosen that assesses the cost of restoring the previous land cover after a potential fire. Based on the CORINE Land Cover, a restoration cost was established for each land cover class at country level, and an average restoration time was assigned according to the recovery capacity of the land cover. The damage caused by fire was then assessed by discounting the cost of restoring the previous land cover over the restoration period. Three different vulnerability scenarios were considered assuming low, medium and high fire severity causing different levels of damage. Over Europe, the potential damage of wild land fires ranges from 10 - 13, 732 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for low fire severity, 32 - 45,772 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for medium fire severity and 54 - 77,812 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for high fire severity. The least vulnerable are natural grasslands, moors and heathland and sclerophyllous vegetation, while the highest cost occurs for restoring broad-leaved forest. Preliminary validation comparing these estimates with official damage assessments for past fires shows reasonable results. The restoration cost approach allows for a straightforward, data extensive assessment of fire vulnerability at European level. A disadvantage is the inherent simplification of the evaluation procedure with the underestimation of non-markets goods and services. Thus, a second approach has been developed, valuing individual wild land goods and services and assessing their annual flow which is lost for a certain period of time in case of a fire event. However, due to limitations in data availability, this approach of environmental accounting is not fully implemented yet. Keywords: fire vulnerability, damage assessment, land cover restoration, long-term fire risk, European scale

Vulnerability of forest vegetation to anthropogenic climate change in China.

PubMed

Wan, Ji-Zhong; Wang, Chun-Jing; Qu, Hong; Liu, Ran; Zhang, Zhi-Xiang

2018-04-15

China has large areas of forest vegetation that are critical to biodiversity and carbon storage. It is important to assess vulnerability of forest vegetation to anthropogenic climate change in China because it may change the distributions and species compositions of forest vegetation. Based on the equilibrium assumption of forest communities across different spatial and temporal scales, we used species distribution modelling coupled with endemics-area relationship to assess the vulnerability of 204 forest communities across 16 vegetation types under different climate change scenarios in China. By mapping the vulnerability of forest vegetation to climate change, we determined that 78.9% and 61.8% of forest vegetation should be relatively stable in the low and high concentration scenarios, respectively. There were large vulnerable areas of forest vegetation under anthropogenic climate change in northeastern and southwestern China. The vegetation of subtropical mixed broadleaf evergreen and deciduous forest, cold-temperate and temperate mountains needleleaf forest, and temperate mixed needleleaf and broadleaf deciduous forest types were the most vulnerable under climate change. Furthermore, the vulnerability of forest vegetation may increase due to high greenhouse gas concentrations. Given our estimates of forest vegetation vulnerability to anthropogenic climate change, it is critical that we ensure long-term monitoring of forest vegetation responses to future climate change to assess our projections against observations. We need to better integrate projected changes of temperature and precipitation into climate-adaptive conservation strategies for forest vegetation in China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

From Risk Assessment to Risk Management: Matching Interventions to Adolescent Offenders’ Strengths and Vulnerabilities

PubMed Central

Singh, Jay P.; Desmarais, Sarah L.; Sellers, Brian G.; Hylton, Tatiana; Tirotti, Melissa; Van Dorn, Richard A.

2013-01-01

Though considerable research has examined the validity of risk assessment tools in predicting adverse outcomes in justice-involved adolescents, the extent to which risk assessments are translated into risk management strategies and, importantly, the association between this link and adverse outcomes has gone largely unexamined. To address these shortcomings, the Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model was used to examine associations between identified strengths and vulnerabilities, interventions, and institutional outcomes for justice-involved youth. Data were collected from risk assessments completed using the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV) for 120 adolescent offenders (96 boys and 24 girls). Interventions and outcomes were extracted from institutional records. Mixed evidence of adherence to RNR principles was found. Accordant to the risk principle, adolescent offenders judged to have more strengths had more strength-based interventions in their service plans, though adolescent offenders with more vulnerabilities did not have more interventions targeting their vulnerabilities. With respect to the need and responsivity principles, vulnerabilities and strengths identified as particularly relevant to the individual youth's risk of adverse outcomes were addressed in the service plans about half and a quarter of the time, respectively. Greater adherence to the risk and need principles was found to predict significantly the likelihood of externalizing outcomes. Findings suggest some gaps between risk assessment and risk management and highlight the potential usefulness of strength-based approaches to intervention. PMID:25346561

A framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment for southwest U.S. military installations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chadwick, B.; Flick, Reinhard; Helly, J.; Nishikawa, Tracy; Pei, Fang Wang; O'Reilly, W.; Guza, R.; Bromirski, Peter; Young, A.; Crampton, W.; Wild, B.; Canner, I.

2011-01-01

We describe an analysis framework to determine military installation vulnerabilities under increases in local mean sea level as projected over the next century. The effort is in response to an increasing recognition of potential climate change ramifications for national security and recommendations that DoD conduct assessments of the impact on U.S. military installations of climate change. Results of the effort described here focus on development of a conceptual framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment at coastal military installations in the southwest U.S. We introduce the vulnerability assessment in the context of a risk assessment paradigm that incorporates sources in the form of future sea level conditions, pathways of impact including inundation, flooding, erosion and intrusion, and a range of military installation specific receptors such as critical infrastructure and training areas. A unique aspect of the methodology is the capability to develop wave climate projections from GCM outputs and transform these to future wave conditions at specific coastal sites. Future sea level scenarios are considered in the context of installation sensitivity curves which reveal response thresholds specific to each installation, pathway and receptor. In the end, our goal is to provide a military-relevant framework for assessment of accelerated SLR vulnerability, and develop the best scientifically-based scenarios of waves, tides and storms and their implications for DoD installations in the southwestern U.S.

A Preliminary Tsunami vulnerability analysis for Bakirkoy district in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tufekci, Duygu; Lutfi Suzen, M.; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Zaytsev, Andrey

2016-04-01

Resilience of coastal utilities after earthquakes and tsunamis has major importance for efficient and proper rescue and recovery operations soon after the disasters. Vulnerability assessment of coastal areas under extreme events has major importance for preparedness and development of mitigation strategies. The Sea of Marmara has experienced numerous earthquakes as well as associated tsunamis. There are variety of coastal facilities such as ports, small craft harbors, and terminals for maritime transportation, water front roads and business centers mainly at North Coast of Marmara Sea in megacity Istanbul. A detailed vulnerability analysis for Yenikapi region and a detailed resilience analysis for Haydarpasa port in Istanbul have been studied in previously by Cankaya et al., (2015) and Aytore et al., (2015) in SATREPS project. In this study, the methodology of vulnerability analysis under tsunami attack given in Cankaya et al., (2015) is modified and applied to Bakirkoy district of Istanbul. Bakirkoy district is located at western part of Istanbul and faces to the North Coast of Marmara Sea from 28.77oE to 28.89oE. High resolution spatial dataset of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) is used and analyzed. The bathymetry and topography database and the spatial dataset containing all buildings/structures/infrastructures in the district are collated and utilized for tsunami numerical modeling and following vulnerability analysis. The tsunami parameters from deterministically defined worst case scenarios are computed from the simulations using tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE. The vulnerability assessment parameters in the district according to vulnerability and resilience are defined; and scored by implementation of a GIS based TVA with appropriate MCDA methods. The risk level is computed using tsunami intensity (level of flow depth from simulations) and TVA results at every location in Bakirkoy district. The preliminary results are presented and discussed. Acknowledgements: Partial support by Japan-Turkey Joint Research Project by JICA on earthquakes and tsunamis in Marmara Region in (JICA SATREPS - MarDiM Project), 603839 ASTARTE Project of EU, UDAP-C-12-14 project of AFAD, Turkey, 108Y227, 113M556, 213M534 projects of TUBITAK Turkey, RAPSODI (CONCERT_Dis-021) of CONCERT-Japan Joint Call and Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality are acknowledged.

Zoning vulnerability of climate change in variation of amount and trend of precipitation - Case Study: Great Khorasan province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modiri, Ehsan; Modiri, Sadegh

2015-04-01

Climatic hazards have complex nature that many of them are beyond human control. Earth's climate is constantly fluctuating and trying to balance itself. More than 75% of Iran has arid and semi-arid climate thus assessment of climate change induced threats and vulnerabilities is essential. In order to investigate the reason for the changes in amount and trend of precipitation parameter, 17 synoptic stations have been selected in the interval of the establishment time of the station until 2013. These stations are located in three regions: Northern, Razavi and Southern Khorasan. For quality control of data in Monthly, quarterly and annual total precipitation of data were tested and checked by run test. Then probable trends in each of the areas was assessed by Kendall-tau test. Total annual precipitation of each station is the important factor that increase the sensitivity of vulnerability in the area with low rainfall. Annual amount of precipitation moving from north to south has been declining, though in different fields that they have different geomorphologic characteristics controversies occur. But clearly can be observed average of precipitation decline with decreasing latitude. There were positive trends in the annual precipitation in 6 stations, negative trends in 10 stations, as well as one station, has no trend. The remarkable notice is that all stations have a positive trend were in the northern region in the case study. These stations had been in ranging from none to Moderate classification of threats and vulnerability. After the initialization parameters to classify levels of risks and vulnerability, the two measures of mean annual precipitation and the trends of this fluctuation were combined together. This classification was created in five level for stations. Accordingly Golmakan, Ghochan, Torbate heydarieh, Bojnord and Mashhad were in none threat level. Khoor of Birjand and Boshruyeh have had complete stage of the threat level and had the greatest meteorological perspective risk. Finally, after determining the degree of threats, meteorological vulnerability zoning map was produced by kriging interpolation method and utilizing geographic information systems (GIS). It showed most studied areas were in complete level of investigation. Keywords: Vulnerability, Climate threats, GIS, Zoning, Precipitation, Crisis management.

A statistical assessment of population trends for data deficient Mexican amphibians

PubMed Central

Thessen, Anne E.; Arias-Caballero, Paulina; Ayala-Orozco, Bárbara

2014-01-01

Background. Mexico has the world’s fifth largest population of amphibians and the second country with the highest quantity of threatened amphibian species. About 10% of Mexican amphibians lack enough data to be assigned to a risk category by the IUCN, so in this paper we want to test a statistical tool that, in the absence of specific demographic data, can assess a species’ risk of extinction, population trend, and to better understand which variables increase their vulnerability. Recent studies have demonstrated that the risk of species decline depends on extrinsic and intrinsic traits, thus including both of them for assessing extinction might render more accurate assessment of threats. Methods. We harvested data from the Encyclopedia of Life (EOL) and the published literature for Mexican amphibians, and used these data to assess the population trend of some of the Mexican species that have been assigned to the Data Deficient category of the IUCN using Random Forests, a Machine Learning method that gives a prediction of complex processes and identifies the most important variables that account for the predictions. Results. Our results show that most of the data deficient Mexican amphibians that we used have decreasing population trends. We found that Random Forests is a solid way to identify species with decreasing population trends when no demographic data is available. Moreover, we point to the most important variables that make species more vulnerable for extinction. This exercise is a very valuable first step in assigning conservation priorities for poorly known species. PMID:25548736

A statistical assessment of population trends for data deficient Mexican amphibians.

PubMed

Quintero, Esther; Thessen, Anne E; Arias-Caballero, Paulina; Ayala-Orozco, Bárbara

2014-01-01

Background. Mexico has the world's fifth largest population of amphibians and the second country with the highest quantity of threatened amphibian species. About 10% of Mexican amphibians lack enough data to be assigned to a risk category by the IUCN, so in this paper we want to test a statistical tool that, in the absence of specific demographic data, can assess a species' risk of extinction, population trend, and to better understand which variables increase their vulnerability. Recent studies have demonstrated that the risk of species decline depends on extrinsic and intrinsic traits, thus including both of them for assessing extinction might render more accurate assessment of threats. Methods. We harvested data from the Encyclopedia of Life (EOL) and the published literature for Mexican amphibians, and used these data to assess the population trend of some of the Mexican species that have been assigned to the Data Deficient category of the IUCN using Random Forests, a Machine Learning method that gives a prediction of complex processes and identifies the most important variables that account for the predictions. Results. Our results show that most of the data deficient Mexican amphibians that we used have decreasing population trends. We found that Random Forests is a solid way to identify species with decreasing population trends when no demographic data is available. Moreover, we point to the most important variables that make species more vulnerable for extinction. This exercise is a very valuable first step in assigning conservation priorities for poorly known species.

Beyond exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity: A response based ecological framework to assess species climate change vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fortini, Lucas B.; Schubert, Olivia

2017-01-01

As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informing climate adaptation efforts. VAs commonly integrate multiple sources of information by utilizing a framework that distinguishes factors relevant to species exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, this framework was originally developed for human systems, and its use to evaluate species vulnerability has serious practical and theoretical limitations. By instead defining vulnerability as the degree to which a species is unable to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., toleration of projected changes, migration to new climate-compatible areas, enduring in microrefugia, and evolutionary adaptation), we can bring VAs into the realm of ecological science without applying borrowed abstract concepts that have consistently challenged species-centric research and management. This response-based framework to assess species vulnerability to climate change allows better integration of relevant ecological data and past research, yielding results with much clearer implications for conservation and research prioritization.

Probabilistic seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of stone masonry structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abo El Ezz, Ahmad

Earthquakes represent major natural hazards that regularly impact the built environment in seismic prone areas worldwide and cause considerable social and economic losses. The high losses incurred following the past destructive earthquakes promoted the need for assessment of the seismic vulnerability and risk of the existing buildings. Many historic buildings in the old urban centers in Eastern Canada such as Old Quebec City are built of stone masonry and represent un-measurable architectural and cultural heritage. These buildings were built to resist gravity loads only and generally offer poor resistance to lateral seismic loads. Seismic vulnerability assessment of stone masonry buildings is therefore the first necessary step in developing seismic retrofitting and pre-disaster mitigation plans. The objective of this study is to develop a set of probability-based analytical tools for efficient seismic vulnerability and uncertainty analysis of stone masonry buildings. A simplified probabilistic analytical methodology for vulnerability modelling of stone masonry building with systematic treatment of uncertainties throughout the modelling process is developed in the first part of this study. Building capacity curves are developed using a simplified mechanical model. A displacement based procedure is used to develop damage state fragility functions in terms of spectral displacement response based on drift thresholds of stone masonry walls. A simplified probabilistic seismic demand analysis is proposed to capture the combined uncertainty in capacity and demand on fragility functions. In the second part, a robust analytical procedure for the development of seismic hazard compatible fragility and vulnerability functions is proposed. The results are given by sets of seismic hazard compatible vulnerability functions in terms of structure-independent intensity measure (e.g. spectral acceleration) that can be used for seismic risk analysis. The procedure is very efficient for conducting rapid vulnerability assessment of stone masonry buildings. With modification of input structural parameters, it can be adapted and applied to any other building class. A sensitivity analysis of the seismic vulnerability modelling is conducted to quantify the uncertainties associated with each of the input parameters. The proposed methodology was validated for a scenario-based seismic risk assessment of existing buildings in Old Quebec City. The procedure for hazard compatible vulnerability modelling was used to develop seismic fragility functions in terms of spectral acceleration representative of the inventoried buildings. A total of 1220 buildings were considered. The assessment was performed for a scenario event of magnitude 6.2 at distance 15km with a probability of exceedance of 2% in 50 years. The study showed that most of the expected damage is concentrated in the old brick and stone masonry buildings.

Spatio-temporal earthquake risk assessment for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area - A contribution to improving standard methods of population exposure and vulnerability analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freire, Sérgio; Aubrecht, Christoph

2010-05-01

The recent 7.0 M earthquake that caused severe damage and destruction in parts of Haiti struck close to 5 PM (local time), at a moment when many people were not in their residences, instead being in their workplaces, schools, or churches. Community vulnerability assessment to seismic hazard relying solely on the location and density of resident-based census population, as is commonly the case, would grossly misrepresent the real situation. In particular in the context of global (climate) change, risk analysis is a research field increasingly gaining in importance whereas risk is usually defined as a function of hazard probability and vulnerability. Assessment and mapping of human vulnerability has however generally been lagging behind hazard analysis efforts. Central to the concept of vulnerability is the issue of human exposure. Analysis of exposure is often spatially tied to administrative units or reference objects such as buildings, spanning scales from the regional level to local studies for small areas. Due to human activities and mobility, the spatial distribution of population is time-dependent, especially in metropolitan areas. Accurately estimating population exposure is a key component of catastrophe loss modeling, one element of effective risk analysis and emergency management. Therefore, accounting for the spatio-temporal dynamics of human vulnerability correlates with recent recommendations to improve vulnerability analyses. Earthquakes are the prototype for a major disaster, being low-probability, rapid-onset, high-consequence events. Lisbon, Portugal, is subject to a high risk of earthquake, which can strike at any day and time, as confirmed by modern history (e.g. December 2009). The recently-approved Special Emergency and Civil Protection Plan (PEERS) is based on a Seismic Intensity map, and only contemplates resident population from the census as proxy for human exposure. In the present work we map and analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of population in the daily cycle to re-assess exposure to earthquake hazard in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, home to almost three million people. New high-resolution (50 m grids) daytime and nighttime population distribution maps are developed using dasymetric mapping. The modeling approach uses areal interpolation to combine best-available census data and statistics with land use and land cover data. Mobility statistics are considered for mapping daytime distribution, and empirical parameters used for interpolation are obtained from a previous effort in high resolution population mapping of part of the study area. Finally, the population distribution maps are combined with the Seismic Hazard Intensity map to: (1) quantify and compare human exposure to seismic intensity levels in the daytime and nighttime periods, and (2) derive nighttime and daytime overall Earthquake Risk maps. This novel approach yields previously unavailable spatio-temporal population distribution information for the study area, enabling refined and more accurate earthquake risk mapping and assessment. Additionally, such population exposure datasets can be combined with different hazard maps to improve spatio-temporal assessment and risk mapping for any type of hazard, natural or man-made. We believe this improved characterization of vulnerability and risk can benefit all phases of the disaster management process where human exposure has to be considered, namely in emergency planning, risk mitigation, preparedness, and response to an event.

On the Optimality of Answer-Copying Indices: Theory and Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Romero, Mauricio; Riascos, Álvaro; Jara, Diego

2015-01-01

Multiple-choice exams are frequently used as an efficient and objective method to assess learning, but they are more vulnerable to answer copying than tests based on open questions. Several statistical tests (known as indices in the literature) have been proposed to detect cheating; however, to the best of our knowledge, they all lack mathematical…

Drought vulnerability assessment for prioritising drought warning implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, Gustavo; Faneca Sànchez, Marta; Mwangi, Emmah; Barbosa, Paulo; Iglesias, Ana; Garrote, Luis; Werner, Micha

2014-05-01

Drought warning provides a potentially efficient approach to mitigation of drought impacts, and should be targeted at areas most vulnerable to being adversely impacted. Assessing drought vulnerability is, however, complex and needs to consider susceptibility to drought impact as well as the capacity to cope with drought. In this paper a Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) is proposed that considers four primary components that reflect the capacity of society to adapt to drought; the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the available infrastructure and technology. The DVI is established as a weighted combination of these four components, each a composite of selected indicators. Constituent indicators are calculated based on national and/or regional census data and statistics, and while the resulting DVI should not be considered an absolute measure of drought vulnerability it does provide for a prioritisation of areas that can be used to target drought warning efforts. Sensitivity analysis of weights applied show the established DVI to be robust. Through the DVI the development of drought forecasting and warning can be targeted at the most vulnerable areas. The proposed DVI is applied at both the continental scale in Africa to assess drought vulnerability of the different nations across Africa, and at the national level in Kenya, allowing for prioritisation of the counties within Kenya to drought vulnerability. Results show the relative vulnerability of countries and counties vulnerable to drought. At the continental scale, Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad are found to be the countries most vulnerable to drought. At the national level, the relative vulnerability of the counties across Kenya is found, with counties in the North-East of Kenya having the highest values of DVI. At the country level results were compared with drought disaster information from the EM-DAT disaster database, showing a good agreement between recorded drought impact and the established DVI classes. Kenya counties most vulnerable to drought are primarily located in the North-East of the country, showing a reasonable agreement with the spatial distribution of impacts of the 2010/2011 drought, despite the drought itself being more widespread.

Report: Results of Technical Network Vulnerability Assessment: EPA’s National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Laboratory

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #12-P-0900, September 27, 2012. Vulnerability testing of networked resources located in the NVFEL identified Internet Protocol addresses with potentially 9 critical-risk, 70 high-risk, and 297 medium-risk vulnerabilities.

The effectiveness of police custody assessments in identifying suspects with intellectual disabilities and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Intellectual Disabilities (ID) and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) are recognized psychological vulnerabilities in police interviews and court proceedings in England and Wales. The aims of this study were to investigate: (a) the prevalence of ID and/or ADHD among suspects detained at a large London metropolitan police station and their relationship with conduct disorder (CD), (b) the impact of their condition on police staff resources, (c) the effectiveness of current custody assessment tools in identifying psychological vulnerabilities, and (d) the use of ‘Appropriate Adults’ in interviews. Method A total of 200 individuals in a police custody suite were interviewed and screened for ID, ADHD (current symptoms) and CD. Results The screening rates for these three disorders were 6.7%, 23.5% and 76.3%, respectively. ADHD contributed significantly to increased requests being made of staff after controlling for CD and duration of time in custody. This is a novel finding. Reading and writing difficulties and mental health problems were often identified from the custody risk assessment tools, but they were not used effectively to inform on the need for the use of an Appropriate Adult. The frequency with which Appropriate Adults were provided to support detainees in police interviews (4.2%) remains almost identical to that found in a similar study conducted 20 years previously. Conclusions The current findings suggest that in spite of reforms recently made in custodial settings, procedures may not have had the anticipated impact of improving safeguards for vulnerable suspects. Detainees with ID and ADHD require an Appropriate Adult during police interviews and other formal custody procedures, which they commonly do not currently receive. The findings of the current study suggest this may be due, in large part, to the ineffective use of risk-assessment tools and healthcare professionals, which represent missed opportunities to identify such vulnerabilities. PMID:24261542

Multi-criteria decision analysis and spatial statistic: an approach to determining human vulnerability to vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi.

PubMed

Montenegro, Diego; Cunha, Ana Paula da; Ladeia-Andrade, Simone; Vera, Mauricio; Pedroso, Marcel; Junqueira, Angela

2017-10-01

Chagas disease (CD), caused by the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, is a neglected human disease. It is endemic to the Americas and is estimated to have an economic impact, including lost productivity and disability, of 7 billion dollars per year on average. To assess vulnerability to vector-borne transmission of T. cruzi in domiciliary environments within an area undergoing domiciliary vector interruption of T. cruzi in Colombia. Multi-criteria decision analysis [preference ranking method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE) and geometrical analysis for interactive assistance (GAIA) methods] and spatial statistics were performed on data from a socio-environmental questionnaire and an entomological survey. In the construction of multi-criteria descriptors, decision-making processes and indicators of five determinants of the CD vector pathway were summarily defined, including: (1) house indicator (HI); (2) triatominae indicator (TI); (3) host/reservoir indicator (Ho/RoI); (4) ecotope indicator (EI); and (5) socio-cultural indicator (S-CI). Determination of vulnerability to CD is mostly influenced by TI, with 44.96% of the total weight in the model, while the lowest contribution was from S-CI, with 7.15%. The five indicators comprise 17 indices, and include 78 of the original 104 priority criteria and variables. The PROMETHEE and GAIA methods proved very efficient for prioritisation and quantitative categorisation of socio-environmental determinants and for better determining which criteria should be considered for interrupting the man-T. cruzi-vector relationship in endemic areas of the Americas. Through the analysis of spatial autocorrelation it is clear that there is a spatial dependence in establishing categories of vulnerability, therefore, the effect of neighbors' setting (border areas) on local values should be incorporated into disease management for establishing programs of surveillance and control of CD via vector. The study model proposed here is flexible and can be adapted to various eco-epidemiological profiles and is suitable for focusing anti-T. cruzi serological surveillance programs in vulnerable human populations.

The Role of Narcissistic Vulnerability in Predicting Adult Posttraumatic Symptoms from Childhood Sexual Abuse.

PubMed

Bachar, Eytan; Canetti, Laura; Hadar, Hilit; Baruch, Julia; Dor, Yehuda; Freedman, Sara

2015-10-01

The aim of the present study is to determine whether narcissistic vulnerability can aid in clarifying the debate regarding the relationship between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and adulthood adjustment to traumatic events. 157 survivors (mean age = 31.1, SD = 10.9) of a traumatic event (war activities and road and work accidents) were assessed 1 week, 1, and 4 months following the event. Of the 157 participants, 15 reported experiencing CSA, and 26 reported experiencing childhood physical abuse (CPA). In the first-week assessment, patients were administered the Narcissistic Vulnerability Scale (NVS) and the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI). In the follow-up assessments, subjects were interviewed on the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale. Narcissistic vulnerability was found, both in 1- and 4-month follow-ups, to increase the likelihood of participants who experienced CSA to develop PTSD symptoms later in their adult life, when exposed to other additional trauma. Narcissistic vulnerability, in both follow-ups, did not increase the likelihood of participants who experienced CPA to develop PTSD symptoms later in their life when exposed to other additional trauma. The NVS predicted the development of PTSD symptoms in the whole sample, both in the 1- and 4-month follow-ups, above and beyond the prediction of the BDI. In other words, narcissistic vulnerability can add additional information above and beyond general negative emotionality. In conclusion, it is recommended to take into consideration the interplay between CSA and the individual's narcissistic vulnerability when assessing the long term effects of CSA such as acute or chronic PTSD.

A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of California's At-Risk Birds

PubMed Central

Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; DiGaudio, Ryan T.; Comrack, Lyann A.

2012-01-01

Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife. PMID:22396726

A climate change vulnerability assessment of California's at-risk birds.

PubMed

Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E; DiGaudio, Ryan T; Comrack, Lyann A

2012-01-01

Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife.

DEMONSTRATING APPLICATIONS OF REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

This task is designed to respond to 2 Congressional earmarks of $1,000,000 to the Canaan Valley Institute (CVI) to work in close coordination with the Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) initiative to develop research and educational tools using integrative technologies to p...