The arctic water resource vulnerability index: an integrated assessment tool for community resilience and vulnerability with respect to freshwater.

PubMed

Alessa, Lilian; Kliskey, Andrew; Lammers, Richard; Arp, Chris; White, Dan; Hinzman, Larry; Busey, Robert

2008-09-01

People in the Arctic face uncertainty in their daily lives as they contend with environmental changes at a range of scales from local to global. Freshwater is a critical resource to people, and although water resource indicators have been developed that operate from regional to global scales and for midlatitude to equatorial environments, no appropriate index exists for assessing the vulnerability of Arctic communities to changing water resources at the local scale. The Arctic Water Resource Vulnerability Index (AWRVI) is proposed as a tool that Arctic communities can use to assess their relative vulnerability-resilience to changes in their water resources from a variety of biophysical and socioeconomic processes. The AWRVI is based on a social-ecological systems perspective that includes physical and social indicators of change and is demonstrated in three case study communities/watersheds in Alaska. These results highlight the value of communities engaging in the process of using the AWRVI and the diagnostic capability of examining the suite of constituent physical and social scores rather than the total AWRVI score alone.

[Vulnerability of eco-economy in northern slope region of Tianshan Mountains].

PubMed

Wu, Jian-zhai; Li, Bo; Zhang, Xin-shi; Zhao, Wen-wu; Jiang, Guang-hui

2008-04-01

Based on the theoretical meaning of vulnerability, a vulnerability assessment of eco-econom in fifteen counties in the northern slope region of Tianshan Mountains was conducted. The ecosystem services change to land use was regarded as the impact, and based on the fourteen indices from resource holding, society development, and economy development statistic data, the adaptive ability was evaluated by using the methods of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy synthetic evaluation. On the basis of assessment results of impact and adaptive capacity, the fifteen counties were divided into five classes under the assessment principles, and the district with higher-class number was of more vulnerability. The first class included Usu City and Changji City, the second class included Hutubi County, Miquan County, Fukang City, Jimsar County, Qitai County and Mori Kazak Autonomous County, the third class included Karamay City and Urumqi City, the fourth class included Kuitun City and Shawan County, and the fifth class included Jinghe County, Shihezi City and Manas County. The vulnerability reflected the level of eco-environment change and socioeconomic development, and the vulnerability assessment could be a good way to ensure the sustainable development. Aiming to decrease the vulnerability, various districts belonging to different class of vulnerability should establish relevant tactics according to the vulnerability factors to accelerate the region's sustainable development.

A Guide to School Vulnerability Assessments: Key Principles for Safe Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Office of Safe and Drug-Free Schools, US Department of Education, 2008

2008-01-01

Crises affect schools across the country every day. While natural hazards such as tornadoes, floods, hurricanes, and earthquakes may be thought of more commonly as emergencies, schools are also at risk from other hazards such as school violence, infectious disease, and terrorist threats. Through the vulnerability assessment process, schools can…

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability by applying the modified DRASTIC model in Beihai City, China.

PubMed

Wu, Xiaoyu; Li, Bin; Ma, Chuanming

2018-05-01

This study assesses vulnerability of groundwater to pollution in Beihai City, China, as a support of groundwater resource protection. The assessment result not only objectively reflects potential possibility of groundwater to contamination but also provides scientific basis for the planning and utilization of groundwater resources. This study optimizes the parameters consisting of natural factors and human factors upon the DRASTIC model and modifies the ratings of these parameters, based on the local environmental conditions for the study area. And a weight of each parameter is assigned by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to reduce the subjectivity of humans to vulnerability assessment. The resulting scientific ratings and weights of modified DRASTIC model (AHP-DRASTLE model) contribute to obtain the more realistic assessment of vulnerability of groundwater to contaminant. The comparison analysis validates the accuracy and rationality of the AHP-DRASTLE model and shows it suits the particularity of the study area. The new assessment method (AHP-DRASTLE model) can provide a guide for other scholars to assess the vulnerability of groundwater to contamination. The final vulnerability map for the AHP-DRASTLE model shows four classes: highest (2%), high (29%), low (55%), and lowest (14%). The vulnerability map serves as a guide for decision makers on groundwater resource protection and land use planning at the regional scale and that it is adapted to a specific area.

Using the analytical hierarchy process to assess the environmental vulnerabilities of basins in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chang, Chia-Ling; Chao, Yu-Chi

2012-05-01

Every year, Taiwan endures typhoons and earthquakes; these natural hazards often induce landslides and debris flows. Therefore, watershed management strategies must consider the environmental vulnerabilities of local basins. Because many factors affect basin ecosystems, this study applied multiple criteria analysis and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to evaluate seven criteria in three phases (geographic phase, hydrologic phase, and societal phase). This study focused on five major basins in Taiwan: the Tan-Shui River Basin, the Ta-Chia River Basin, the Cho-Shui River Basin, the Tseng-Wen River Basin, and the Kao-Ping River Basin. The objectives were a comprehensive examination of the environmental characteristics of these basins and a comprehensive assessment of their environmental vulnerabilities. The results of a survey and AHP analysis showed that landslide area is the most important factor for basin environmental vulnerability. Of all these basins, the Cho-Shui River Basin in central Taiwan has the greatest environmental vulnerability.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Puducherry coast, India using analytical hierarchical process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mani Murali, R.; Ankita, M.; Amrita, S.; Vethamony, P.

2013-03-01

Increased frequency of natural hazards such as storm surge, tsunami and cyclone, as a consequence of change in global climate, is predicted to have dramatic effects on the coastal communities and ecosystems by virtue of the devastation they cause during and after their occurrence. The tsunami of December 2004 and the Thane cyclone of 2011 caused extensive human and economic losses along the coastline of Puducherry and Tamil Nadu. The devastation caused by these events highlighted the need for vulnerability assessment to ensure better understanding of the elements causing different hazards and to consequently minimize the after-effects of the future events. This paper advocates an Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) based approach to coastal vulnerability studies as an improvement to the existing methodologies for vulnerability assessment. The paper also encourages the inclusion of socio-economic parameters along with the physical parameters to calculate the coastal vulnerability index using AHP derived weights. Seven physical-geological parameters (slope, geomorphology, elevation, shoreline change, sea level rise, significant wave height and tidal range) and four socio-economic factors (population, Land-use/Land-cover (LU/LC), roads and location of tourist places) are considered to measure the Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI) as well as the Socio-economic Vulnerability Index (SVI) of the Puducherry coast. Based on the weights and scores derived using AHP, vulnerability maps are prepared to demarcate areas with very low, medium and high vulnerability. A combination of PVI and SVI values are further utilized to compute the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI). Finally, the various coastal segments are grouped into the 3 vulnerability classes to obtain the final coastal vulnerability map. The entire coastal extent between Muthiapet and Kirumampakkam as well as the northern part of Kalapet is designated as the high vulnerability zone which constitutes 50% of the coastline. The region between the southern coastal extent of Kalapet and Lawspet is the medium vulnerability zone and the rest 25% is the low vulnerability zone. The results obtained, enable to identify and prioritize the more vulnerable areas of the region to further assist the government and the residing coastal communities in better coastal management and conservation.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Puducherry coast, India, using the analytical hierarchical process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mani Murali, R.; Ankita, M.; Amrita, S.; Vethamony, P.

2013-12-01

As a consequence of change in global climate, an increased frequency of natural hazards such as storm surges, tsunamis and cyclones, is predicted to have dramatic affects on the coastal communities and ecosystems by virtue of the devastation they cause during and after their occurrence. The tsunami of December 2004 and the Thane cyclone of 2011 caused extensive human and economic losses along the coastline of Puducherry and Tamil Nadu. The devastation caused by these events highlighted the need for vulnerability assessment to ensure better understanding of the elements causing different hazards and to consequently minimize the after- effects of the future events. This paper demonstrates an analytical hierarchical process (AHP)-based approach to coastal vulnerability studies as an improvement to the existing methodologies for vulnerability assessment. The paper also encourages the inclusion of socio-economic parameters along with the physical parameters to calculate the coastal vulnerability index using AHP-derived weights. Seven physical-geological parameters (slope, geomorphology, elevation, shoreline change, sea level rise, significant wave height and tidal range) and four socio-economic factors (population, land use/land cover (LU/LC), roads and location of tourist areas) are considered to measure the physical vulnerability index (PVI) as well as the socio-economic vulnerability index (SVI) of the Puducherry coast. Based on the weights and scores derived using AHP, vulnerability maps are prepared to demarcate areas with very low, medium and high vulnerability. A combination of PVI and SVI values are further utilized to compute the coastal vulnerability index (CVI). Finally, the various coastal segments are grouped into the 3 vulnerability classes to obtain the coastal vulnerability map. The entire coastal extent between Muthiapet and Kirumampakkam as well as the northern part of Kalapet is designated as the high vulnerability zone, which constitutes 50% of the coastline. The region between the southern coastal extent of Kalapet and Lawspet is the medium vulnerability zone and the remaining 25% is the low vulnerability zone. The results obtained enable the identification and prioritization of the more vulnerable areas of the region in order to further assist the government and the residing coastal communities in better coastal management and conservation.

Assessment of well vulnerability for groundwater source protection based on a solute transport model: a case study from Jilin City, northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huan, Huan; Wang, Jinsheng; Lai, Desheng; Teng, Yanguo; Zhai, Yuanzheng

2015-05-01

Well vulnerability assessment is essential for groundwater source protection. A quantitative approach to assess well vulnerability in a well capture zone is presented, based on forward solute transport modeling. This method was applied to three groundwater source areas (Jiuzhan, Hadawan and Songyuanhada) in Jilin City, northeast China. The ratio of the maximum contaminant concentration at the well to the released concentration at the contamination source ( c max/ c 0) was determined as the well vulnerability indicator. The results indicated that well vulnerability was higher close to the pumping well. The well vulnerability in each groundwater source area was low. Compared with the other two source areas, the cone of depression at Jiuzhan resulted in higher spatial variability of c max/ c 0 and lower minimum c max/ c 0 by three orders of magnitude. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis indicated that the denitrification rate in the aquifer was the most sensitive with respect to well vulnerability. A process to derive a NO3-N concentration at the pumping well is presented, based on determining the maximum nitrate loading limit to satisfy China's drinking-water quality standards. Finally, the advantages, disadvantages and prospects for improving the precision of this well vulnerability assessment approach are discussed.

Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of shallow aquifers of the sedimentary basin of southwestern Nigeria

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The shallow groundwater of the multi-layered sedimentary basin aquifer of southwestern Nigeria was assessed based on its intrinsic vulnerability property. The vulnerability evaluation involves determining the protective cover and infiltration condition of the unsaturated zone in the basin. This was achieved using the PI (P stands for protective cover effectiveness of the overlying lithology and I indicates the degree of infiltration bypass) vulnerability method of the European vulnerability approach. The PI method specifically measures the protection cover and the degree to which the protective cover is bypassed. Intrinsic parameters assessed were the subsoil, lithology, topsoil, recharge and fracturing for the protective cover. The saturated hydraulic conductivity of topsoil, infiltration processes and the lateral surface and subsurface flow were evaluated for the infiltration bypassed. The results show moderate to very low vulnerability areas. Low vulnerability areas were characterised by lithology with massive sandstone and limestone, subsoils of sandy loam texture, high slopes and high depth to water table. The moderate vulnerability areas were characterised by high rainfall and high recharge, low water table, unconsolidated sandstones and alluvium lithology. The intrinsic vulnerability properties shown in vulnerability maps will be a useful tool in planning and monitoring land use activities that can be of impact in groundwater pollution.

Assessing the vulnerability of watersheds to climate change: results of national forest watershed vulnerability pilot assessments

Treesearch

Michael J. Furniss; Ken B. Roby; Dan Cenderelli; John Chatel; Caty F. Clifton; Alan Clingenpeel; Polly E. Hays; Dale Higgins; Ken Hodges; Carol Howe; Laura Jungst; Joan Louie; Christine Mai; Ralph Martinez; Kerry Overton; Brian P. Staab; Rory Steinke; Mark Weinhold

2013-01-01

Existing models and predictions project serious changes to worldwide hydrologic processes as a result of global climate change. Projections indicate that significant change may threaten National Forest System watersheds that are an important source of water used to support people, economies, and ecosystems.Wildland managers are expected to anticipate and...

Improving the role of vulnerability assessments In decision support for effective climate adaptation

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; Constance I. Millar

2014-01-01

Vulnerability assessments (VA) have been proposed as an initial step in a process to develop and implement adaptation management for climate change in forest ecosystems. Scientific understanding of the effects of climate change is an ever-accumulating knowledge base. Synthesizing information from this knowledge base in the context of our understanding of ecosystem...

Development of AHPDST Vulnerability Indexing Model for Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment Using Hydrogeophysical Derived Parameters and GIS Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mogaji, K. A.

2017-04-01

Producing a bias-free vulnerability assessment map model is significantly needed for planning a scheme of groundwater quality protection. This study developed a GIS-based AHPDST vulnerability index model for producing groundwater vulnerability model map in the hard rock terrain, Nigeria by exploiting the potentials of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) data mining models. The acquired borehole and geophysical data in the study area were processed to derive five groundwater vulnerability conditioning factors (GVCFs), namely recharge rate, aquifer transmissivity, hydraulic conductivity, transverse resistance and longitudinal conductance. The produced GVCFs' thematic maps were multi-criterially analyzed by employing the mechanisms of AHP and DST models to determine the normalized weight ( W) parameter for the GVCFs and mass function factors (MFFs) parameter for the GVCFs' thematic maps' class boundaries, respectively. Based on the application of the weighted linear average technique, the determined W and MFFs parameters were synthesized to develop groundwater vulnerability potential index (GVPI)-based AHPDST model algorithm. The developed model was applied to establish four GVPI mass/belief function indices. The estimates based on the applied GVPI belief function indices were processed in GIS environment to create prospective groundwater vulnerability potential index maps. The most representative of the resulting vulnerability maps (the GVPIBel map) was considered for producing the groundwater vulnerability potential zones (GVPZ) map for the area. The produced GVPZ map established 48 and 52% of the areal extent to be covered by the lows/moderate and highs vulnerable zones, respectively. The success and the prediction rates of the produced GVPZ map were determined using the relative operating characteristics technique to give 82.3 and 77.7%, respectively. The analyzed results reveal that the developed GVPI-based AHPDST model algorithm is capable of producing efficient groundwater vulnerability potential zones prediction map and characterizing the predicted zones uncertainty via the DST mechanism processes in the area. The produced GVPZ map in this study can be used by decision makers to formulate appropriate groundwater management strategies and the approach may be well opted in other hard rock regions of the world, especially in economically poor nations.

Forecasting Urban Forest Ecosystem Structure, Function, and Vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steenberg, James W. N.; Millward, Andrew A.; Nowak, David J.; Robinson, Pamela J.; Ellis, Alexis

2017-03-01

The benefits derived from urban forest ecosystems are garnering increasing attention in ecological research and municipal planning. However, because of their location in heterogeneous and highly-altered urban landscapes, urban forests are vulnerable and commonly suffer disproportionate and varying levels of stress and disturbance. The objective of this study is to assess and analyze the spatial and temporal changes, and potential vulnerability, of the urban forest resource in Toronto, Canada. This research was conducted using a spatially-explicit, indicator-based assessment of vulnerability and i-Tree Forecast modeling of temporal changes in forest structure and function. Nine scenarios were simulated for 45 years and model output was analyzed at the ecosystem and municipal scale. Substantial mismatches in ecological processes between spatial scales were found, which can translate into unanticipated loss of function and social inequities if not accounted for in planning and management. At the municipal scale, the effects of Asian longhorned beetle and ice storm disturbance were far less influential on structure and function than changes in management actions. The strategic goals of removing invasive species and increasing tree planting resulted in a decline in carbon storage and leaf biomass. Introducing vulnerability parameters in the modeling increased the spatial heterogeneity in structure and function while expanding the disparities of resident access to ecosystem services. There was often a variable and uncertain relationship between vulnerability and ecosystem structure and function. Vulnerability assessment and analysis can provide strategic planning initiatives with valuable insight into the processes of structural and functional change resulting from management intervention.

Forecasting Urban Forest Ecosystem Structure, Function, and Vulnerability.

PubMed

Steenberg, James W N; Millward, Andrew A; Nowak, David J; Robinson, Pamela J; Ellis, Alexis

2017-03-01

The benefits derived from urban forest ecosystems are garnering increasing attention in ecological research and municipal planning. However, because of their location in heterogeneous and highly-altered urban landscapes, urban forests are vulnerable and commonly suffer disproportionate and varying levels of stress and disturbance. The objective of this study is to assess and analyze the spatial and temporal changes, and potential vulnerability, of the urban forest resource in Toronto, Canada. This research was conducted using a spatially-explicit, indicator-based assessment of vulnerability and i-Tree Forecast modeling of temporal changes in forest structure and function. Nine scenarios were simulated for 45 years and model output was analyzed at the ecosystem and municipal scale. Substantial mismatches in ecological processes between spatial scales were found, which can translate into unanticipated loss of function and social inequities if not accounted for in planning and management. At the municipal scale, the effects of Asian longhorned beetle and ice storm disturbance were far less influential on structure and function than changes in management actions. The strategic goals of removing invasive species and increasing tree planting resulted in a decline in carbon storage and leaf biomass. Introducing vulnerability parameters in the modeling increased the spatial heterogeneity in structure and function while expanding the disparities of resident access to ecosystem services. There was often a variable and uncertain relationship between vulnerability and ecosystem structure and function. Vulnerability assessment and analysis can provide strategic planning initiatives with valuable insight into the processes of structural and functional change resulting from management intervention.

Security Risk Assessment Process for UAS in the NAS CNPC Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iannicca, Dennis C.; Young, Dennis P.; Thadani, Suresh K.; Winter, Gilbert A.

2013-01-01

This informational paper discusses the risk assessment process conducted to analyze Control and Non-Payload Communications (CNPC) architectures for integrating civil Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System (NAS). The assessment employs the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Risk Management framework to identify threats, vulnerabilities, and risks to these architectures and recommends corresponding mitigating security controls. This process builds upon earlier work performed by RTCA Special Committee (SC) 203 and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to roadmap the risk assessment methodology and to identify categories of information security risks that pose a significant impact to aeronautical communications systems. A description of the deviations from the typical process is described in regards to this aeronautical communications system. Due to the sensitive nature of the information, data resulting from the risk assessment pertaining to threats, vulnerabilities, and risks is beyond the scope of this paper.

Security Risk Assessment Process for UAS in the NAS CNPC Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iannicca, Dennis Christopher; Young, Daniel Paul; Suresh, Thadhani; Winter, Gilbert A.

2013-01-01

This informational paper discusses the risk assessment process conducted to analyze Control and Non-Payload Communications (CNPC) architectures for integrating civil Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System (NAS). The assessment employs the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Risk Management framework to identify threats, vulnerabilities, and risks to these architectures and recommends corresponding mitigating security controls. This process builds upon earlier work performed by RTCA Special Committee (SC) 203 and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to roadmap the risk assessment methodology and to identify categories of information security risks that pose a significant impact to aeronautical communications systems. A description of the deviations from the typical process is described in regards to this aeronautical communications system. Due to the sensitive nature of the information, data resulting from the risk assessment pertaining to threats, vulnerabilities, and risks is beyond the scope of this paper

Rethinking vulnerability analysis and governance with emphasis on a participatory approach.

PubMed

Rossignol, Nicolas; Delvenne, Pierre; Turcanu, Catrinel

2015-01-01

This article draws on vulnerability analysis as it emerged as a complement to classical risk analysis, and it aims at exploring its ability for nurturing risk and vulnerability governance actions. An analysis of the literature on vulnerability analysis allows us to formulate a three-fold critique: first, vulnerability analysis has been treated separately in the natural and the technological hazards fields. This separation prevents vulnerability from unleashing the full range of its potential, as it constrains appraisals into artificial categories and thus already closes down the outcomes of the analysis. Second, vulnerability analysis focused on assessment tools that are mainly quantitative, whereas qualitative appraisal is a key to assessing vulnerability in a comprehensive way and to informing policy making. Third, a systematic literature review of case studies reporting on participatory approaches to vulnerability analysis allows us to argue that participation has been important to address the above, but it remains too closed down in its approach and would benefit from embracing a more open, encompassing perspective. Therefore, we suggest rethinking vulnerability analysis as one part of a dynamic process between opening-up and closing-down strategies, in order to support a vulnerability governance framework. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Constructing the Indicators of Assessing Human Vulnerability to Industrial Chemical Accidents: A Consensus-based Fuzzy Delphi and Fuzzy AHP Approach.

PubMed

Fatemi, Farin; Ardalan, Ali; Aguirre, Benigno; Mansouri, Nabiollah; Mohammadfam, Iraj

2017-04-10

Industrial chemical accidents have been increased in developing countries. Assessing the human vulnerability in the residents of industrial areas is necessary for reducing the injuries and causalities of chemical hazards. The aim of this study was to explore the key indicators for the assessment of human vulnerability in the residents living near chemical installations. The indicators were established in the present study based on the Fuzzy Delphi method (FDM) and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). The reliability of FDM and FAHP was calculated. The indicators of human vulnerability were explored in two sets of social and physical domains. Thirty-five relevant experts participated in this study during March-July 2015. According to experts, the top three indicators of human vulnerability according to the FDM and FAHP were vulnerable groups, population density, and awareness. Detailed sub-vulnerable groups and awareness were developed based on age, chronic or severe diseases, disability, first responders, and residents, respectively. Each indicator and sub-indicator was weighted and ranked and had an acceptable consistency ratio. The importance of social vulnerability indicators are about 7 times more than physical vulnerability indicators. Among the extracted indicators, vulnerable groups had the highest weight and the greatest impact on human vulnerability. however, further research is needed to investigate the applicability of established indicators and generalizability of the results to other studies. Fuzzy Delphi; Fuzzy AHP; Human vulnerability; Chemical hazards.

Constructing the Indicators of Assessing Human Vulnerability to Industrial Chemical Accidents: A Consensus-based Fuzzy Delphi and Fuzzy AHP Approach

PubMed Central

Fatemi, Farin; Ardalan, Ali; Aguirre, Benigno; Mansouri, Nabiollah; Mohammadfam, Iraj

2017-01-01

Introduction: Industrial chemical accidents have been increased in developing countries. Assessing the human vulnerability in the residents of industrial areas is necessary for reducing the injuries and causalities of chemical hazards. The aim of this study was to explore the key indicators for the assessment of human vulnerability in the residents living near chemical installations. Methods: The indicators were established in the present study based on the Fuzzy Delphi method (FDM) and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). The reliability of FDM and FAHP was calculated. The indicators of human vulnerability were explored in two sets of social and physical domains. Thirty-five relevant experts participated in this study during March-July 2015. Results: According to experts, the top three indicators of human vulnerability according to the FDM and FAHP were vulnerable groups, population density, and awareness. Detailed sub-vulnerable groups and awareness were developed based on age, chronic or severe diseases, disability, first responders, and residents, respectively. Each indicator and sub-indicator was weighted and ranked and had an acceptable consistency ratio. Conclusions: The importance of social vulnerability indicators are about 7 times more than physical vulnerability indicators. Among the extracted indicators, vulnerable groups had the highest weight and the greatest impact on human vulnerability. however, further research is needed to investigate the applicability of established indicators and generalizability of the results to other studies. Key words: Fuzzy Delphi; Fuzzy AHP; Human vulnerability; Chemical hazards PMID:28480124

Vulnerability assessment of a port and harbor community to earthquake and tsunami hazards: Integrating technical expert and stakeholder input

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Good, James W.; Goodwin, Robert F.

2002-01-01

Research suggests that the Pacific Northwest could experience catastrophic earthquakes and tsunamis in the near future, posing a significant threat to the numerous ports and harbors along the coast. A collaborative, multiagency initiative is underway to increase the resiliency of Pacific Northwest ports and harbors to these hazards, involving Oregon Sea Grant, Washington Sea Grant, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center, and the U.S. Geological Survey Center for Science Policy. One element of this research, planning, and outreach initiative is a natural hazard mitigation and emergency preparedness planning process that combines technical expertise with local stakeholder values and perceptions. This paper summarizes and examines one component of the process, the vulnerability assessment methodology, used in the pilot port and harbor community of Yaquina River, Oregon, as a case study of assessing vulnerability at the local level. In this community, stakeholders were most concerned with potential life loss and other nonstructural vulnerability issues, such as inadequate hazard awareness, communication, and response logistics, rather than structural issues, such as damage to specific buildings or infrastructure.

Calibration of groundwater vulnerability mapping using the generalized reduced gradient method.

PubMed

Elçi, Alper

2017-12-01

Groundwater vulnerability assessment studies are essential in water resources management. Overlay-and-index methods such as DRASTIC are widely used for mapping of groundwater vulnerability, however, these methods mainly suffer from a subjective selection of model parameters. The objective of this study is to introduce a calibration procedure that results in a more accurate assessment of groundwater vulnerability. The improvement of the assessment is formulated as a parameter optimization problem using an objective function that is based on the correlation between actual groundwater contamination and vulnerability index values. The non-linear optimization problem is solved with the generalized-reduced-gradient (GRG) method, which is numerical algorithm based optimization method. To demonstrate the applicability of the procedure, a vulnerability map for the Tahtali stream basin is calibrated using nitrate concentration data. The calibration procedure is easy to implement and aims the maximization of correlation between observed pollutant concentrations and groundwater vulnerability index values. The influence of each vulnerability parameter in the calculation of the vulnerability index is assessed by performing a single-parameter sensitivity analysis. Results of the sensitivity analysis show that all factors are effective on the final vulnerability index. Calibration of the vulnerability map improves the correlation between index values and measured nitrate concentrations by 19%. The regression coefficient increases from 0.280 to 0.485. It is evident that the spatial distribution and the proportions of vulnerability class areas are significantly altered with the calibration process. Although the applicability of the calibration method is demonstrated on the DRASTIC model, the applicability of the approach is not specific to a certain model and can also be easily applied to other overlay-and-index methods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Calibration of groundwater vulnerability mapping using the generalized reduced gradient method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elçi, Alper

2017-12-01

Groundwater vulnerability assessment studies are essential in water resources management. Overlay-and-index methods such as DRASTIC are widely used for mapping of groundwater vulnerability, however, these methods mainly suffer from a subjective selection of model parameters. The objective of this study is to introduce a calibration procedure that results in a more accurate assessment of groundwater vulnerability. The improvement of the assessment is formulated as a parameter optimization problem using an objective function that is based on the correlation between actual groundwater contamination and vulnerability index values. The non-linear optimization problem is solved with the generalized-reduced-gradient (GRG) method, which is numerical algorithm based optimization method. To demonstrate the applicability of the procedure, a vulnerability map for the Tahtali stream basin is calibrated using nitrate concentration data. The calibration procedure is easy to implement and aims the maximization of correlation between observed pollutant concentrations and groundwater vulnerability index values. The influence of each vulnerability parameter in the calculation of the vulnerability index is assessed by performing a single-parameter sensitivity analysis. Results of the sensitivity analysis show that all factors are effective on the final vulnerability index. Calibration of the vulnerability map improves the correlation between index values and measured nitrate concentrations by 19%. The regression coefficient increases from 0.280 to 0.485. It is evident that the spatial distribution and the proportions of vulnerability class areas are significantly altered with the calibration process. Although the applicability of the calibration method is demonstrated on the DRASTIC model, the applicability of the approach is not specific to a certain model and can also be easily applied to other overlay-and-index methods.

Cyber / Physical Security Vulnerability Assessment Integration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacDonald, Douglas G.; Simpkins, Bret E.

Abstract Both physical protection and cyber security domains offer solutions for the discovery of vulnerabilities through the use of various assessment processes and software tools. Each vulnerability assessment (VA) methodology provides the ability to identify and categorize vulnerabilities, and quantifies the risks within their own areas of expertise. Neither approach fully represents the true potential security risk to a site and/or a facility, nor comprehensively assesses the overall security posture. The technical approach to solving this problem was to identify methodologies and processes that blend the physical and cyber security assessments, and develop tools to accurately quantify the unaccounted formore » risk. SMEs from both the physical and the cyber security domains developed the blending methodologies, and cross trained each other on the various aspects of the physical and cyber security assessment processes. A local critical infrastructure entity volunteered to host a proof of concept physical/cyber security assessment, and the lessons learned have been leveraged by this effort. The four potential modes of attack an adversary can use in approaching a target are; Physical Only Attack, Cyber Only Attack, Physical Enabled Cyber Attack, and the Cyber Enabled Physical Attack. The Physical Only and the Cyber Only pathway analysis are two of the most widely analyzed attack modes. The pathway from an off-site location to the desired target location is dissected to ensure adversarial activity can be detected and neutralized by the protection strategy, prior to completion of a predefined task. This methodology typically explores a one way attack from the public space (or common area) inward towards the target. The Physical Enabled Cyber Attack and the Cyber Enabled Physical Attack are much more intricate. Both scenarios involve beginning in one domain to affect change in the other, then backing outward to take advantage of the reduced system effectiveness, before penetrating further into the defenses. The proper identification and assessment of the overlapping areas (and interaction between these areas) in the VA process is necessary to accurately assess the true risk.« less

Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability Assessment in Industrial Complexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H. J.; Lee, D. K.

2016-12-01

Climate change has recently caused frequent natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, and heat waves. Such disasters have also increased industrial damages. We must establish climate change adaptation policies to reduce the industrial damages. It is important to make accurate vulnerability assessment to establish climate change adaptation policies. Thus, this study aims at establishing a new index to assess vulnerability level in industrial complexes. Most vulnerability indices have been developed with subjective approaches, such as the Delphi survey and the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP). The subjective approaches rely on the knowledge of a few experts, which provokes the lack of the reliability of the indices. To alleviate the problem, we have designed a vulnerability index incorporating objective approaches. We have investigated 42 industrial complex sites in Republic of Korea (ROK). To calculate weights of variables, we used entropy method as an objective method integrating the Delphi survey as a subjective method. Finally, we found our method integrating both subjective method and objective method could generate result. The integration of the entropy method enables us to assess the vulnerability objectively. Our method will be useful to establish climate change adaptation policies by reducing the uncertainties of the methods based on the subjective approaches.

Real-time network security situation visualization and threat assessment based on semi-Markov process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Junhua

2013-03-01

To cope with a large amount of data in current sensed environments, decision aid tools should provide their understanding of situations in a time-efficient manner, so there is an increasing need for real-time network security situation awareness and threat assessment. In this study, the state transition model of vulnerability in the network based on semi-Markov process is proposed at first. Once events are triggered by an attacker's action or system response, the current states of the vulnerabilities are known. Then we calculate the transition probabilities of the vulnerability from the current state to security failure state. Furthermore in order to improve accuracy of our algorithms, we adjust the probabilities that they exploit the vulnerability according to the attacker's skill level. In the light of the preconditions and post-conditions of vulnerabilities in the network, attack graph is built to visualize security situation in real time. Subsequently, we predict attack path, recognize attack intention and estimate the impact through analysis of attack graph. These help administrators to insight into intrusion steps, determine security state and assess threat. Finally testing in a network shows that this method is reasonable and feasible, and can undertake tremendous analysis task to facilitate administrators' work.

Factor weighting in DRASTIC modelling for assessing the groundwater vulnerability in Salatiga groundwater basin, Central Java Province, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kesuma, D. A.; Purwanto, P.; Putranto, T. T.; Rahmani, T. P. D.

2017-06-01

The increase in human population as well as area development in Salatiga Groundwater Basin, Central Java Province, will increase the potency of groundwater contamination in that area. Groundwater quality, especially the shallow groundwater, is very vulnerable to the contamination from industrial waste, fertilizer/agricultural waste, and domestic waste. The first step in the conservation of groundwater quality is by conducting the mapping of the groundwater vulnerability zonation against the contamination. The result of this research was groundwater vulnerability map which showed the areas vulnerable to the groundwater contamination. In this study, groundwater vulnerability map was assessed based on the DRASTIC Method and was processed spatially using Geographic Information System. The DRASTIC method is used to assess the level of groundwater vulnerability based on weighting on seven parameters, which are: depth to the water table (D), recharge (R), aquifer material (A), soil media (S), topography (T), impact of vadose zone (I), and hydraulic conductivity (C). The higher the DRASTIC Index will result in the higher vulnerability level of groundwater contamination in that area. The DRASTIC Indexes in the researched area were 85 - 100 (low vulnerability level), 101 -120 (low to moderate vulnerability level), 121 - 140 (moderate vulnerability level), 141 - 150, (moderate to high vulnerability level), and 151 - 159 (high vulnerability level). The output of this study can be used by local authority as a tool for consideration to arrange the policy for sustainable area development, especially the development in an area affecting the quality of Salatiga Groundwater Basin.

Integrated flash flood vulnerability assessment: Insights from East Attica, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Thaler, Thomas; Heiser, Micha; Hübl, Johannes; Fuchs, Sven

2016-10-01

In the framework of flood risk assessment, vulnerability is a key concept to assess the susceptibility of elements at risk. Besides the increasing amount of studies on flash floods available, in-depth information on vulnerability in Mediterranean countries was missing so far. Moreover, current approaches in vulnerability research are driven by a divide between social scientists who tend to view vulnerability as representing a set of socio-economic factors, and natural scientists who view vulnerability in terms of the degree of loss to an element at risk. Further, vulnerability studies in response to flash flood processes are rarely answered in the literature. In order to close this gap, this paper implemented an integrated vulnerability approach focusing on residential buildings exposed to flash floods in Greece. In general, both physical and social vulnerability was comparable low, which is interpreted as a result from (a) specific building regulations in Greece as well as general design principles leading to less structural susceptibility of elements at risk exposed, and (b) relatively low economic losses leading to less social vulnerability of citizens exposed. The population show high risk awareness and coping capacity to response to natural hazards event and in the same time the impact of the events are quite low, because of the already high use of local protection measures. The low vulnerability score for East Attica can be attributed especially to the low physical vulnerability and the moderate socio-economic well-being of the area. The consequence is to focus risk management strategies mainly in the reduction of the social vulnerability. By analysing both physical and social vulnerability an attempt was made to bridge the gap between scholars from sciences and humanities, and to integrate the results of the analysis into the broader vulnerability context.

The need for comprehensive vulnerability approaches to mirror the multiplicity in mountain hazard risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keiler, Margreth; Fuchs, Sven

2014-05-01

The concept of vulnerability is pillared by multiple disciplinary theories underpinning either a technical or a social origin of the concept and resulting in a range of paradigms for vulnerability quantification. By taking a natural scientific approach we argue that a large number of studies have focused either on damage-loss functions for individual mountain hazards or on semi-quantitative indicator-based approaches for multiple hazards (hazard chains). However, efforts to reduce susceptibility to hazards and to create disaster-resilient communities require intersections among these approaches, as well as among theories originating in natural and social sciences, since human activity cannot be seen independently from the environmental setting. Acknowledging different roots of disciplinary paradigms in risk management, issues determining structural, economic, institutional and social vulnerability have to be more comprehensively addressed in the future with respect to mountain hazards in Europe and beyond. It is argued that structural vulnerability as originator results in considerable economic vulnerability, generated by the institutional settings of dealing with natural hazards and shaped by the overall societal framework. If vulnerability and its counterpart, resilience, is analysed and evaluated by using such a comprehensive approach, a better understanding of the vulnerability-influencing parameters could be achieved, taking into account the interdependencies and interactions between the disciplinary foci. As a result, three key issues should be addressed in future research: (1) Vulnerability requires a new perspective on the relationship between society and environment: not as a duality, but more as a mutually constitutive relationship (including methods for assessment). (2) There is a need for concepts of vulnerability that emphasise the dynamics of temporal and spatial scales, particularly with respect to Global Change processes in mountain regions. (3) Loss and damage is part of a process in which interactions of climate change with societal processes shape and transform human societies. They are part of the human-environment interaction that needs assessment and adaptation.

Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment Of Farmers and Nomads in Eastern Ecotone of Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, J.; Zhang, Y.

2011-12-01

Livelihood vulnerability assessment provides a scientific basis for anti-poverty of people and regional sustainable development in vulnerable area. Although there are massive discussions on concept of vulnerability, it is still difficult to make it quantitative and to carry out comprehensive appraise. Vulnerability assessments based on sustainable livelihood frame are widely accepted in case studies for attentions to vulnerable groups. However, these case studies are always on regional scale and never reflect how climate change affects people's livelihood and adaptive capability of people. It is necessary to seek vulnerable assessment index system and means based on livelihood process of local people. This paper develops a livelihood vulnerability assessment index system on the basis of sustainable livelihood framework and appraises livelihood vulnerability values of 11 townships, using data of 879 sample households. Livelihood vulnerability assessment index system reflects main risks, livelihood assets and adaptation strategies of local people and government. The results show that livelihood vulnerability level of plateau region is higher than that of mountain to plateau region and mountain gorge region. Manzhang Township in plateau region is the most vulnerable township and nomads there cannot cope with risks of climate change, meadow degeneration and herbs degradation. Upper part of mountain to plateau region and the whole plateau region have high livelihood vulnerability values and local nomads would not cope with risks if no measures are taken by government. The driving forces of livelihood vulnerability include strikes of risks and deficiency of livelihood assets and adaptive capability. Farmers and nomads in high mountain gorge region and lower part of mountain to plateau region can cope with these risks, meanwhile, there are more employment opportunities in second and tertiary industries are needed to help them realize livelihood diversification. Therefore, plateau region and upper part of mountain to plateau region is vulnerable region and active steps should be taken by government to strengthen adaptive capabilities of farmers and nomads. Government relief should shift from improvement of natural assets to improvement of human assets and financial assets, such as technique training, hospitalization insurance, animal disease prevention and treatment, low interest or interest-free loan, restoring gazing areas to grassland in black beach, restoring other degraded pastures.

Development and implementation of a Bayesian-based aquifer vulnerability assessment in Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arthur, J.D.; Wood, H.A.R.; Baker, A.E.; Cichon, J.R.; Raines, G.L.

2007-01-01

The Florida Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment (FAVA) was designed to provide a tool for environmental, regulatory, resource management, and planning professionals to facilitate protection of groundwater resources from surface sources of contamination. The FAVA project implements weights-of-evidence (WofE), a data-driven, Bayesian-probabilistic model to generate a series of maps reflecting relative aquifer vulnerability of Florida's principal aquifer systems. The vulnerability assessment process, from project design to map implementation is described herein in reference to the Floridan aquifer system (FAS). The WofE model calculates weighted relationships between hydrogeologic data layers that influence aquifer vulnerability and ambient groundwater parameters in wells that reflect relative degrees of vulnerability. Statewide model input data layers (evidential themes) include soil hydraulic conductivity, density of karst features, thickness of aquifer confinement, and hydraulic head difference between the FAS and the watertable. Wells with median dissolved nitrogen concentrations exceeding statistically established thresholds serve as training points in the WofE model. The resulting vulnerability map (response theme) reflects classified posterior probabilities based on spatial relationships between the evidential themes and training points. The response theme is subjected to extensive sensitivity and validation testing. Among the model validation techniques is calculation of a response theme based on a different water-quality indicator of relative recharge or vulnerability: dissolved oxygen. Successful implementation of the FAVA maps was facilitated by the overall project design, which included a needs assessment and iterative technical advisory committee input and review. Ongoing programs to protect Florida's springsheds have led to development of larger-scale WofE-based vulnerability assessments. Additional applications of the maps include land-use planning amendments and prioritization of land purchases to protect groundwater resources. ?? International Association for Mathematical Geology 2007.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sahoo, Satiprasad; Dhar, Anirban, E-mail: anirban.dhar@gmail.com; Kar, Amlanjyoti

Environmental management of an area describes a policy for its systematic and sustainable environmental protection. In the present study, regional environmental vulnerability assessment in Hirakud command area of Odisha, India is envisaged based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process method (Grey–AHP) using integrated remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Grey–AHP combines the advantages of classical analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey clustering method for accurate estimation of weight coefficients. It is a new method for environmental vulnerability assessment. Environmental vulnerability index (EVI) uses natural, environmental and human impact related factors, e.g., soil, geology, elevation, slope, rainfall, temperature, windmore » speed, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, crop intensity, agricultural DRASTIC value, population density and road density. EVI map has been classified into four environmental vulnerability zones (EVZs) namely: ‘low’, ‘moderate’ ‘high’, and ‘extreme’ encompassing 17.87%, 44.44%, 27.81% and 9.88% of the study area, respectively. EVI map indicates that the northern part of the study area is more vulnerable from an environmental point of view. EVI map shows close correlation with elevation. Effectiveness of the zone classification is evaluated by using grey clustering method. General effectiveness is in between “better” and “common classes”. This analysis demonstrates the potential applicability of the methodology. - Highlights: • Environmental vulnerability zone identification based on Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) • The effectiveness evaluation by means of a grey clustering method with support from AHP • Use of grey approach eliminates the excessive dependency on the experience of experts.« less

Update on the Department of Energy's 1994 plutonium vulnerability assessment for the plutonium finishing plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

HERZOG, K.R.

1999-09-01

A review of the environmental, safety, and health vulnerabilities associated with the continued storage of PFP's inventory of plutonium bearing materials and other SNM. This report re-evaluates the five vulnerabilities identified in 1994 at the PFP that are associated with SNM storage. This new evaluation took a more detailed look and applied a risk ranking process to help focus remediation efforts.

Using fuzzy logic to determine the vulnerability of marine species to climate change.

PubMed

Jones, Miranda C; Cheung, William W L

2018-02-01

Marine species are being impacted by climate change and ocean acidification, although their level of vulnerability varies due to differences in species' sensitivity, adaptive capacity and exposure to climate hazards. Due to limited data on the biological and ecological attributes of many marine species, as well as inherent uncertainties in the assessment process, climate change vulnerability assessments in the marine environment frequently focus on a limited number of taxa or geographic ranges. As climate change is already impacting marine biodiversity and fisheries, there is an urgent need to expand vulnerability assessment to cover a large number of species and areas. Here, we develop a modelling approach to synthesize data on species-specific estimates of exposure, and ecological and biological traits to undertake an assessment of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and risk of impacts (combining exposure to hazards and vulnerability) of climate change (including ocean acidification) for global marine fishes and invertebrates. We use a fuzzy logic approach to accommodate the variability in data availability and uncertainties associated with inferring vulnerability levels from climate projections and species' traits. Applying the approach to estimate the relative vulnerability and risk of impacts of climate change in 1074 exploited marine species globally, we estimated their index of vulnerability and risk of impacts to be on average 52 ± 19 SD and 66 ± 11 SD, scaling from 1 to 100, with 100 being the most vulnerable and highest risk, respectively, under the 'business-as-usual' greenhouse gas emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). We identified 157 species to be highly vulnerable while 294 species are identified as being at high risk of impacts. Species that are most vulnerable tend to be large-bodied endemic species. This study suggests that the fuzzy logic framework can help estimate climate vulnerabilities and risks of exploited marine species using publicly and readily available information. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing Flood Risks and Planning for Resiliency in New Jersey: A Case Study on the Use of Online Flood Mapping and Resilience Planning Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auermuller, L. M.; Gatto, J.; Huch, C.

2015-12-01

The highly developed nature of New Jersey's coastline, barrier island and lagoon communities make them particularly vulnerable to storm surge, sea level rise and flooding. The impacts of Hurricane Sandy have enlightened coastal communities to these realities. Recognizing these vulnerabilities, the Jacques Cousteau National Research Reserve (JC NERR), Rutgers Center for Remote Sensing and Spatial Analysis (CRSSA), Rutgers Bloustein School and the Barnegat Bay Partnership (BBP) have developed web-based tools to assist NJ's coastal communities in visualizing and planning for future local impacts. NJFloodMapper and NJAdapt are two complementary interactive mapping websites that visualize different current and future flood hazards. These hazard layers can be combined with additional data including critical facilities, evacuation routes, socioeconomic and environmental data. Getting to Resilience is an online self-assessment tool developed to assist communities reduce vulnerability and increase preparedness by linking planning, mitigation, and adaptation. Through this interactive process communities will learn how their preparedness can yield valuable points through voluntary programs like FEMA's Community Rating System and Sustainable Jersey. The assessment process can also increase the community's understanding of where future vulnerabilities should be addressed through hazard mitigation planning. Since Superstorm Sandy, more than thirty communities in New Jersey have been provided technical assistance in assessing their risks and vulnerabilities to coastal hazards, and have begun to understand how to better plan and prepare for short and long-term changes along their shorelines.

Using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process multicriteria and Geographical information system for coastal vulnerability analysis in Morocco: The case of Mohammedia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tahri, Meryem; Maanan, Mohamed; Hakdaoui, Mustapha

2016-04-01

This paper shows a method to assess the vulnerability of coastal risks such as coastal erosion or submarine applying Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and spatial analysis techniques with Geographic Information System (GIS). The coast of the Mohammedia located in Morocco was chosen as the study site to implement and validate the proposed framework by applying a GIS-FAHP based methodology. The coastal risk vulnerability mapping follows multi-parametric causative factors as sea level rise, significant wave height, tidal range, coastal erosion, elevation, geomorphology and distance to an urban area. The Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology enables the calculation of corresponding criteria weights. The result shows that the coastline of the Mohammedia is characterized by a moderate, high and very high level of vulnerability to coastal risk. The high vulnerability areas are situated in the east at Monika and Sablette beaches. This technical approach is based on the efficiency of the Geographic Information System tool based on Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process to help decision maker to find optimal strategies to minimize coastal risks.

Use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index as an Assessment Tool for Reptiles and Amphibians: Lessons Learned.

PubMed

Tuberville, Tracey D; Andrews, Kimberly M; Sperry, Jinelle H; Grosse, Andrew M

2015-10-01

Climate change threatens biodiversity globally, yet it can be challenging to predict which species may be most vulnerable. Given the scope of the problem, it is imperative to rapidly assess vulnerability and identify actions to decrease risk. Although a variety of tools have been developed to assess climate change vulnerability, few have been evaluated with regard to their suitability for certain taxonomic groups. Due to their ectothermic physiology, low vagility, and strong association with temporary wetlands, reptiles and amphibians may be particularly vulnerable relative to other groups. Here, we evaluate use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to assess a large suite of herpetofauna from the Sand Hills Ecoregion of the southeastern United States. Although data were frequently lacking for certain variables (e.g., phenological response to climate change, genetic variation), sufficient data were available to evaluate all 117 species. Sensitivity analyses indicated that results were highly dependent on size of assessment area and climate scenario selection. In addition, several ecological traits common in, but relatively unique to, herpetofauna are likely to contribute to their vulnerability and need special consideration during the scoring process. Despite some limitations, the NatureServe CCVI was a useful tool for screening large numbers of reptile and amphibian species. We provide general recommendations as to how the CCVI tool's application to herpetofauna can be improved through more specific guidance to the user regarding how to incorporate unique physiological and behavioral traits into scoring existing sensitivity factors and through modification to the assessment tool itself.

Use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index as an Assessment Tool for Reptiles and Amphibians: Lessons Learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuberville, Tracey D.; Andrews, Kimberly M.; Sperry, Jinelle H.; Grosse, Andrew M.

2015-10-01

Climate change threatens biodiversity globally, yet it can be challenging to predict which species may be most vulnerable. Given the scope of the problem, it is imperative to rapidly assess vulnerability and identify actions to decrease risk. Although a variety of tools have been developed to assess climate change vulnerability, few have been evaluated with regard to their suitability for certain taxonomic groups. Due to their ectothermic physiology, low vagility, and strong association with temporary wetlands, reptiles and amphibians may be particularly vulnerable relative to other groups. Here, we evaluate use of the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to assess a large suite of herpetofauna from the Sand Hills Ecoregion of the southeastern United States. Although data were frequently lacking for certain variables (e.g., phenological response to climate change, genetic variation), sufficient data were available to evaluate all 117 species. Sensitivity analyses indicated that results were highly dependent on size of assessment area and climate scenario selection. In addition, several ecological traits common in, but relatively unique to, herpetofauna are likely to contribute to their vulnerability and need special consideration during the scoring process. Despite some limitations, the NatureServe CCVI was a useful tool for screening large numbers of reptile and amphibian species. We provide general recommendations as to how the CCVI tool's application to herpetofauna can be improved through more specific guidance to the user regarding how to incorporate unique physiological and behavioral traits into scoring existing sensitivity factors and through modification to the assessment tool itself.

Spatial-temporal eco-environmental vulnerability assessment and its influential factors based on Landsat data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Ming-Hsu, L.

2016-12-01

Regional land use/land cover (LULC) changes lead to various changes in ecological processes and, in turn, alter regional micro-climate. To understand eco-environmental responses to LULC changes, eco-environmental evaluation is thus required with aims to identify vulnerable regions and influential factors, so that practical measures for environmental protection and management may be proposed. The Thua Thien - Hue Province has been experiencing urbanization at a rapid rate in both population and physical size. The urban land, agricultural land, and aquaculture activities have been invasively into natural space and caused eco-environment deterioration by land desertification, soil erosion, shrinking forest resources,…etc. In this study, an assessment framework that is composed by 11 variables with 9 of them constructed from Landsat time series is proposed to serve as basis to examine eco-environmental vulnerability in the Thua Thien - Hue Province in years 1989, 2003, and 2014. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerability levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities. Result shows that there is an increasing trend in eco-environmental vulnerability in general with expected evolving distributions in heavy and very heavy vulnerability levels, which mainly lying on developed land, bare land, semi bare land, agricultural land, and poor and recovery forests. In contrast, there is a significant decline in potential vulnerability level. The contributing factors of an upward trend in medium, heavy, and very heavy levels include: (i) a large natural forest converted to plantation forest and agriculture land; and (ii) significant expansion of developed land leading to difference in thermal signatures in urban areas as compared with those of the surrounding areas. It is concluded that anthropogenic processes with transformation on LULC has amplified the vulnerability of eco-environment in the study area.

Vulnerability assessment of medieval civic towers as a tool for retrofitting design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Casciati, Sara; Faravelli, Lucia

2008-07-08

The seismic vulnerability of an ancient civic bell-tower is studied. Rather than seeing it as an intermediate stage toward a risk analysis, the assessment of vulnerability is here pursued for the purpose of optimizing the retrofit design. The vulnerability curves are drawn by carrying out a single time history analysis of a model calibrated on the basis of experimental data. From the results of this analysis, the medians of three selected performance parameters are estimated, and they are used to compute, for each of them, the probability of exceeding or attaining the three corresponding levels of light, moderate and severemore » damage. The same numerical model is then used to incorporate the effects of several retrofitting solutions and to re-estimate the associated vulnerability curves. The ultimate goal is to provide a numerical tool able to drive the optimization process of a retrofit design by the comparison of the vulnerability estimates associated with the different retrofitting solutions.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shao, Huaiyong, E-mail: huaiyongshao@163.com; Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing 48823, MI; Sun, Xiaofei

The Chinese government has conducted the Returning Grazing Land to Grassland Project (RGLGP) across large portions of grasslands from western China since 2003. In order to explore and understand the impact in the grassland's eco-environment during the RGLGP, we utilized Projection Pursuit Model (PPM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) to develop a spatial assessment model to examine the ecological vulnerability of the grassland. Our results include five indications: (1) it is practical to apply the spatial PPM on ecological vulnerability assessment for the grassland. This methodology avoids creating an artificial hypothesis, thereby providing objective results that successfully execute a multi-indexmore » assessment process and analysis under non-linear systems in eco-environments; (2) the spatial PPM is not only capable of evaluating regional eco-environmental vulnerability in a quantitative way, but also can quantitatively demonstrate the degree of effect in each evaluation index for regional eco-environmental vulnerability; (3) the eco-environment of the Xianshui River Basin falls into the medium range level. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land use cover and change (LUCC) crucially influence the Xianshui River Basin's eco-environmental vulnerability. Generally, in the Xianshui River Basin, regional eco-environmental conditions improved during 2000 and 2010. The RGLGP positively affected NDVI and LUCC structure, thereby promoting the enhancement of the regional eco-environment; (4) the Xianshui River Basin divides its ecological vulnerability across different levels; therefore our study investigates three ecological regions and proposes specific suggestions for each in order to assist in eco-environmental protection and rehabilitation; and lastly that (5) the spatial PPM established by this study has the potential to be applied on all types of grassland eco-environmental vulnerability assessments under the RGLGP and under the similar conditions in the Returning Agriculture Land to Forest Project (RALFP). However, when establishing an eco-environmental vulnerability assessment model, it is necessary to choose suitable evaluation indexes in accordance with regional eco-environmental characteristics. - Highlights: • We present a method for regional eco-environmental vulnerability assessment. • The method combines Projection Pursuit Model with Geographic Information System. • The Returning Grazing Land to Grassland Project is crucial to environment recovery. • The method is more objective to assess regional eco-environmental vulnerability.« less

Assessing landscape vulnerability to wildfire in the USA

Treesearch

Nicole M. Vaillant; Crystal A. Kolden; Alistair M. S. Smith

2016-01-01

Wildfire is an ever present, natural process shaping landscapes. Having the ability to accurately measure and predict wildfire occurrence and impacts to ecosystem goods and services, both retrospectively and prospectively, is critical for adaptive management of landscapes. Landscape vulnerability is a concept widely utilized in the ecosystem management literature that...

IVUS-Based Computational Modeling and Planar Biaxial Artery Material Properties for Human Coronary Plaque Vulnerability Assessment

PubMed Central

Liu, Haofei; Cai, Mingchao; Yang, Chun; Zheng, Jie; Bach, Richard; Kural, Mehmet H.; Billiar, Kristen L.; Muccigrosso, David; Lu, Dongsi; Tang, Dalin

2012-01-01

Image-based computational modeling has been introduced for vulnerable atherosclerotic plaques to identify critical mechanical conditions which may be used for better plaque assessment and rupture predictions. In vivo patient-specific coronary plaque models are lagging due to limitations on non-invasive image resolution, flow data, and vessel material properties. A framework is proposed to combine intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) imaging, biaxial mechanical testing and computational modeling with fluid-structure interactions and anisotropic material properties to acquire better and more complete plaque data and make more accurate plaque vulnerability assessment and predictions. Impact of pre-shrink-stretch process, vessel curvature and high blood pressure on stress, strain, flow velocity and flow maximum principal shear stress was investigated. PMID:22428362

A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of California's At-Risk Birds

PubMed Central

Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; DiGaudio, Ryan T.; Comrack, Lyann A.

2012-01-01

Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife. PMID:22396726

A climate change vulnerability assessment of California's at-risk birds.

PubMed

Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E; DiGaudio, Ryan T; Comrack, Lyann A

2012-01-01

Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife.

Decision-support tools for Extreme Weather and Climate Events in the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S.; Lowery, M.; Whelchel, A.

2013-12-01

Decision-support tools were assessed for the 2013 National Climate Assessment technical input document, "Climate Change in the Northeast, A Sourcebook". The assessment included tools designed to generate and deliver actionable information to assist states and highly populated urban and other communities in assessment of climate change vulnerability and risk, quantification of effects, and identification of adaptive strategies in the context of adaptation planning across inter-annual, seasonal and multi-decadal time scales. State-level adaptation planning in the Northeast has generally relied on qualitative vulnerability assessments by expert panels and stakeholders, although some states have undertaken initiatives to develop statewide databases to support vulnerability assessments by urban and local governments, and state agencies. The devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy in October 2012 has raised awareness of the potential for extreme weather events to unprecedented levels and created urgency for action, especially in coastal urban and suburban communities that experienced pronounced impacts - especially in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. Planning approaches vary, but any adaptation and resiliency planning process must include the following: - Knowledge of the probable change in a climate variable (e.g., precipitation, temperature, sea-level rise) over time or that the climate variable will attain a certain threshold deemed to be significant; - Knowledge of intensity and frequency of climate hazards (past, current or future events or conditions with potential to cause harm) and their relationship with climate variables; - Assessment of climate vulnerabilities (sensitive resources, infrastructure or populations exposed to climate-related hazards); - Assessment of relative risks to vulnerable resources; - Identification and prioritization of adaptive strategies to address risks. Many organizations are developing decision-support tools to assist in the urban planning process by addressing some of these needs. In this paper we highlight the decision tools available today, discuss their application in selected case studies, and present a gap analysis with opportunities for innovation and future work.

Eco-environmental vulnerability assessment for large drinking water resource: a case study of Qiandao Lake Area, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Qing; Li, Jun; Deng, Jinsong; Lin, Yi; Ma, Ligang; Wu, Chaofan; Wang, Ke; Hong, Yang

2015-09-01

The Qiandao Lake Area (QLA) is of great significance in terms of drinking water supply in East Coast China as well as a nationally renowned tourist attraction. A series of laws and regulations regarding the QLA environment have been enacted and implemented throughout the past decade with the aim of negating the harmful effects associated with expanding urbanization and industrialization. In this research, an assessment framework was developed to analyze the eco-environmental vulnerability of the QLA from 1990-2010 by integrating fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and geographical information systems (GIS) in an attempt to gain insights into the status quo of the QLA so as to review and evaluate the effectiveness of the related policies. After processing and analyzing the temporal and spatial variation of eco-environmental vulnerability and major environmental issues in the QLA, we found that the state of eco-environmental vulnerability of the QLA was acceptable, though a moderate deterioration was detected during the study period. Furthermore, analysis of the combination of vulnerability and water quality indicated that the water quality showed signs of declination, though the overall status remained satisfactory. It was hence concluded that the collective protection and treatment actions were effective over the study period, whereas immediately stricter measures would be required for protecting the drinking water quality from domestic sewage and industrial wastewater. Finally, the spatial variation of the eco-environmental vulnerability assessment also implied that specifically more targeted measures should be adopted in respective regions for long-term sustainable development of the QLA.

Social vulnerability assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis (SEVI model) and the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI model) - a case study for Bucharest, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armaş, I.; Gavriş, A.

2013-06-01

In recent decades, the development of vulnerability frameworks has enlarged the research in the natural hazards field. Despite progress in developing the vulnerability studies, there is more to investigate regarding the quantitative approach and clarification of the conceptual explanation of the social component. At the same time, some disaster-prone areas register limited attention. Among these, Romania's capital city, Bucharest, is the most earthquake-prone capital in Europe and the tenth in the world. The location is used to assess two multi-criteria methods for aggregating complex indicators: the social vulnerability index (SoVI model) and the spatial multi-criteria social vulnerability index (SEVI model). Using the data of the 2002 census we reduce the indicators through a factor analytical approach to create the indices and examine if they bear any resemblance to the known vulnerability of Bucharest city through an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). This is a critical issue that may provide better understanding of the social vulnerability in the city and appropriate information for authorities and stakeholders to consider in their decision making. The study emphasizes that social vulnerability is an urban process that increased in a post-communist Bucharest, raising the concern that the population at risk lacks the capacity to cope with disasters. The assessment of the indices indicates a significant and similar clustering pattern of the census administrative units, with an overlap between the clustering areas affected by high social vulnerability. Our proposed SEVI model suggests adjustment sensitivity, useful in the expert-opinion accuracy.

Associations between social vulnerabilities and dietary patterns in European children: the Identification and prevention of Dietary- and lifestyle-induced health EFfects In Children and infantS (IDEFICS) study.

PubMed

Iguacel, Isabel; Fernández-Alvira, Juan M; Bammann, Karin; De Clercq, Bart; Eiben, Gabriele; Gwozdz, Wencke; Molnar, Dénes; Pala, Valeria; Papoutsou, Stalo; Russo, Paola; Veidebaum, Toomas; Wolters, Maike; Börnhorst, Claudia; Moreno, Luis A

2016-10-01

Socio-economic inequalities in childhood can determine dietary patterns, and therefore future health. This study aimed to explore associations between social vulnerabilities and dietary patterns assessed at two time points, and to investigate the association between accumulation of vulnerabilities and dietary patterns. A total of 9301 children aged 2-9 years participated at baseline and 2-year follow-up examinations of the Identification and prevention of Dietary- and lifestyle-induced health EFfects In Children and infantS study. In all, three dietary patterns were identified at baseline and follow-up by applying the K-means clustering algorithm based on a higher frequency of consumption of snacks and fast food (processed), sweet foods and drinks (sweet), and fruits and vegetables (healthy). Vulnerable groups were defined at baseline as follows: children whose parents lacked a social network, children from single-parent families, children of migrant origin and children with unemployed parents. Multinomial mixed models were used to assess the associations between social vulnerabilities and children's dietary patterns at baseline and follow-up. Children whose parents lacked a social network (OR 1·31; 99 % CI 1·01, 1·70) and migrants (OR 1·45; 99 % CI 1·15, 1·83) were more likely to be in the processed cluster at baseline and follow-up. Children whose parents were homemakers (OR 0·74; 99 % CI 0·60, 0·92) were less likely to be in the processed cluster at baseline. A higher number of vulnerabilities was associated with a higher probability of children being in the processed cluster (OR 1·78; 99 % CI 1·21, 2·62). Therefore, special attention should be paid to children of vulnerable groups as they present unhealthier dietary patterns.

Climate change health assessment: a novel approach for Alaska Native communities.

PubMed

Brubaker, Michael Y; Bell, Jacob N; Berner, James E; Warren, John A

2011-06-01

Develop a process for assessing climate change impacts on public health that identifies climate-health vulnerabilities and mechanisms and encourages adaptation. Multi-stakeholder, participatory, qualitative research. A Climate Change Health Assessment (CCHA) was developed that involved 4 steps: (1) scoping to describe local conditions and engage stakeholders; (2) surveying to collect descriptive and quantitative data; (3) analysis to evaluate the data; and (4) planning to communicate findings and explore appropriate actions with community members. The health effects related to extreme weather, thinning ice, erosion, flooding, thawing permafrost and changing conditions of water and food resources were considered. The CCHA process was developed and performed in north-west Arctic villages. Refinement of the process took place in Point Hope, a coastal Inupiat village that practices whaling and a variety of other traditional subsistence harvest practices. Local observers identified climate change impacts that resulted in damaged health infrastructure, compromised food and water security and increased risk of injury. Priority health issues included thawing traditional ice cellars, diminished quality of the community water source and increased safety issues related to sea ice change. The CCHA increased awareness about health vulnerability and encouraged informed planning and decision-making. A community-scale assessment process guided by observation-based data can identify climate health impacts, raise awareness and encourage adaptive actions, thereby improving the response capacity of communities vulnerable to climate change.

Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared a report exploring a new methodology for climate change vulnerability assessments using Massachusetts Bays’ salt marsh ecosystem as a demonstration. The aim is to synthesize place-based information on the potential implications of climate change for key ecosystem processes in each estuary, in a form that will enable managers to undertake management adaptation planning.

Integration and Typologies of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australian Wheat Sheep Zones.

PubMed

Huai, Jianjun

2016-09-27

Although the integrated indicator methods have become popular for assessing vulnerability to climate change, their proliferation has introduced a confusing array of scales and indicators that cause a science-policy gap. I argue for a clear adaptation pathway in an "integrative typology" of regional vulnerability that matches appropriate scales, optimal measurements and adaptive strategies in a six-dimensional and multi-level analysis framework of integration and typology inspired by the "5W1H" questions: "Who is concerned about how to adapt to the vulnerability of what to what in some place (where) at some time (when)?" Using the case of the vulnerability of wheat, barley and oats to drought in Australian wheat sheep zones during 1978-1999, I answer the "5W1H" questions through establishing the "six typologies" framework. I then optimize the measurement of vulnerability through contrasting twelve kinds of vulnerability scores with the divergence of crops yields from their regional mean. Through identifying the socioeconomic constraints, I propose seven generic types of crop-drought vulnerability and local adaptive strategy. Our results illustrate that the process of assessing vulnerability and selecting adaptations can be enhanced using a combination of integration, optimization and typology, which emphasize dynamic transitions and transformations between integration and typology.

Assessment of vulnerability to future marine processes of urbanized coastal environments by a GIS-based approach: expected scenario in the metropolitan area of Bari (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mancini, F.; Ceppi, C.; Christopulos, V.

2013-12-01

Literature concerning the risk assessment procedures after extreme meteorological events is generally focused on the establishing of relationship between actual severe weather conditions and impact detected over the involved zones. Such an events are classified on the basis of measurements and observation able to assess the magnitude of phenomena or on the basis of related effects on the affected area, the latter being deeply connected with the overall physical vulnerability. However such assessment almost never do consider scenario about expected extreme event and possible pattern of urbanization at the time of impact and nor the spatial and temporal uncertainty of phenomena are taken into account. The drawn of future scenario about coastal vulnerability to marine processes is therefore difficult. This work focuses the study case of the Metropoli Terra di Bari (metropolitan area of Bari, Apulia, Italy) where a coastal vulnerability analysis due to climate changes expected on the basis of expert opinions coming from the scientific community was carried out. Several possible impacts on the coastal environments were considered, in particular sea level rise inundation, flooding due to storm surge and coastal erosion. For such a purpose the methodology base on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) produced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) was adopted after a regionalization procedure as carried out by Verburgh and others (2006) at the European scale. The open source software SLEUTH, base on the cellular automate principle, was used and the reliability of obtained scenario verified through the Monte Carlo method. Once these scenario were produced, a GIS-based multicriteria methodology was implemented to evaluate the vulnerability of the urbanized coastal area of interest. Several vulnerability maps related are therefore available for different scenario able to consider the degree of hazards and potential development of the typology and extent of urban settlements. The vulnerability assessments under different scenario could represent a suitable tool in the designing of risk mitigation strategies under uncertain scenario of hazard.

Susceptibility based upon Chemical Interaction with Disease Processes: Potential Implications for Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

One of the challenges facing toxicology and risk assessment is that numerous host and environmental factors may modulate vulnerability and risk. An area of increasing interest is the potential for chemicals to interact with background aging and disease processes, an interaction...

Modelling the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards for river basin management using a GIS-based multicriteria decision approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, Hung-Chih; Wu, Ju-Yu; Hung, Chih-Hsuan

2017-04-01

1. Background Asia-Pacific region is one of the most vulnerable areas of the world to climate-related hazards and extremes due to rapid urbanization and over-development in hazard-prone areas. It is thus increasingly recognized that the management of land use and reduction of hazard risk are inextricably linked. This is especially critical from the perspective of integrated river basin management. A range of studies has targeted existing vulnerability assessments. However, limited attention has been paid to the cumulative effects of multiple vulnerable factors and their dynamics faced by local communities. This study proposes a novel methodology to access the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards, and to examine the relationship between the attraction factors relevant to the general process of urbanization and vulnerability variability with a focus on a river basin management unit. 2. Methods and data The methods applied in this study include three steps. First, using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) approach, a Cumulative Vulnerability Assessment Framework (CVAF) is built with a goal to characterize and compare the vulnerability to climate-related hazards within river basin regions based on a composition of multiple indicators. We organize these indicator metrics into three categories: (1) hazard exposure; (2) socioeconomic sensitivity, and (3) adaptive capacity. Second, the CVAF is applied by combining a geographical information system (GIS)-based spatial statistics technique with a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess and map the changing cumulative vulnerability, comparing conditions in 1996 and 2006 in Danshui River Basin, Taiwan. Third, to examine the affecting factors of vulnerability changing, we develop a Vulnerability Changing Model (VCM) using four attraction factors to reflect how the process of urban developments leads to vulnerability changing. The factors are transport networks, land uses, production values of industries, and infrastructures. We then conduct a regression analysis to test the VCM. To illustrate the proposed methodology, the data are collected from the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan as well as the National Land Use Investigation and official census statistics. 3. Results and policy implications Results of CVAF analysis demonstrate heterogeneous patterns of vulnerability in the region, and highlight trends of long-term changes. The vulnerable areas unfold as clustered patterns and spatial analogues across regions, rather than randomly distributed. Highest cumulative vulnerability is concentrated in densely populated and downstream reaches (such as Taipei City) of the Danshui River in both time periods. When examining the VCM, it indicates that upper stream and more remote areas generally show low vulnerability, increases are observed in some areas between 1996 and 2006 due to land use intensification, industrial and infrastructure expansion. These findings suggest that land use planning should consider the socioeconomic progression and infrastructure investment factors that contribute to urban sprawl and address current as well as future urban developments vulnerable to hazard risk transmission. The cumulative vulnerability assessment, mapping methods and modelling presented here can be applied to other climate change and hazard risks to highlight priority areas for further investigation and contribute towards improving river basin management.

On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

PubMed

Wolf, Tanja; Chuang, Wen-Ching; McGregor, Glenn

2015-10-23

Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action.

Quantifying human vulnerability in rural areas: case study of Tutova Hills (Eastern Romania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stângă, I. C.; Grozavu, A.

2012-06-01

This paper aims to assess the vulnerability at regional level, the model and the proposed indicators being explicitly intended for an essentially rural region, in this case-Tutova Hills (Eastern Romania). Five categories of variables were taken into account to define the vulnerability components: rural habitat, demographic features, agriculture, environmental quality and emergency situations. For each one, five variables were analyzed and ranked based on the level of determination or subordination. In order to ensure the flexibility of the model and to avoid the criteria duplication in assessing vulnerability, only a single indicator of each category was retained and included in analysis: total number of inhabitants, dependency ratio, weight of arable land on slope categories, weight of land under forestry and road accessibility of villages. The selected indicators were mathematically processed in order to maximize their relevance and to unitary express the results in the spread 0-1. Also, values of each indicator were grouped into four classes, corresponding to the level of vulnerability: low, medium, high and very high. A general index was obtained through the integration of vulnerability factors in an equation based on the geometric mean. Spatial analysis was based on features of the MicroImages TNTmips 7.3. software, which allow the vulnerability mapping. This approach argues and states that vulnerability assessment through indicator-based methods can be made only according to the level and scale of analysis and related to natural or human conditions of a region.

Development of a process-oriented vulnerability concept for water travel time in karst aquifers-case study of Tanour and Rasoun springs catchment area.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamdan, Ibraheem; Sauter, Martin; Ptak, Thomas; Wiegand, Bettina; Margane, Armin; Toll, Mathias

2017-04-01

Key words: Karst aquifer, water travel time, vulnerability assessment, Jordan. The understanding of the groundwater pathways and movement through karst aquifers, and the karst aquifer response to precipitation events especially in the arid to semi-arid areas is fundamental to evaluate pollution risks from point and non-point sources. In spite of the great importance of the karst aquifer for drinking purposes, karst aquifers are highly sensitive to contamination events due to the fast connections between the land-surface and the groundwater (through the karst features) which is makes groundwater quality issues within karst systems very complicated. Within this study, different methods and approaches were developed and applied in order to characterise the karst aquifer system of the Tanour and Rasoun springs (NW-Jordan) and the flow dynamics within the aquifer, and to develop a process-oriented method for vulnerability assessment based on the monitoring of different multi-spatially variable parameters of water travel time in karst aquifer. In general, this study aims to achieve two main objectives: 1. Characterization of the karst aquifer system and flow dynamics. 2. Development of a process-oriented method for vulnerability assessment based on spatially variable parameters of travel time. In order to achieve these aims, different approaches and methods were applied starting from the understanding of the geological and hydrogeological characteristics of the karst aquifer and its vulnerability against pollutants, to using different methods, procedures and monitored parameters in order to determine the water travel time within the aquifer and investigate its response to precipitation event and, finally, with the study of the aquifer response to pollution events. The integrated breakthrough signal obtained from the applied methods and procedures including the using of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen, the monitoring of multi qualitative and quantitative parameters using automated probes and data loggers, and the development of travel time physics-based vulnerability assessment method shows good agreement as an applicable methods to determine the water travel time in karst aquifers, and to investigate its response to precipitation and pollution events.

Fuzzy-based assessment of groundwater intrinsic vulnerability of a volcanic aquifer in the Chilean Andean Valley.

PubMed

Duhalde, Denisse J; Arumí, José L; Oyarzún, Ricardo A; Rivera, Diego A

2018-06-11

A fuzzy logic approach has been proposed to face the uncertainty caused by sparse data in the assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of a groundwater system with parametric methods in Las Trancas Valley, Andean Mountain, south-central Chile, a popular touristic place in Chile, but lacking of a centralized drinking and sewage water public systems; this situation is a potentially source of groundwater pollution. Based on DRASTIC, GOD, and EKv and the expert knowledge of the study area, the Mamdani fuzzy approach was generated and the spatial data were processed by ArcGIS. The groundwater system exhibited areas with high, medium, and low intrinsic vulnerability indices. The fuzzy approach results were compared with traditional methods results, which, in general, have shown a good spatial agreement even though significant changes were also identified in the spatial distribution of the indices. The Mamdani logic approach has shown to be a useful and practical tool to assess the intrinsic vulnerability of an aquifer under sparse data conditions.

Uncertainty analysis in vulnerability estimations for elements at risk- a review of concepts and some examples on landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciurean, R. L.; Glade, T.

2012-04-01

Decision under uncertainty is a constant of everyday life and an important component of risk management and governance. Recently, experts have emphasized the importance of quantifying uncertainty in all phases of landslide risk analysis. Due to its multi-dimensional and dynamic nature, (physical) vulnerability is inherently complex and the "degree of loss" estimates imprecise and to some extent even subjective. Uncertainty analysis introduces quantitative modeling approaches that allow for a more explicitly objective output, improving the risk management process as well as enhancing communication between various stakeholders for better risk governance. This study presents a review of concepts for uncertainty analysis in vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides. Different semi-quantitative and quantitative methods are compared based on their feasibility in real-world situations, hazard dependency, process stage in vulnerability assessment (i.e. input data, model, output), and applicability within an integrated landslide hazard and risk framework. The resulted observations will help to identify current gaps and future needs in vulnerability assessment, including estimation of uncertainty propagation, transferability of the methods, development of visualization tools, but also address basic questions like what is uncertainty and how uncertainty can be quantified or treated in a reliable and reproducible way.

A Risk Management Framework to Characterize Black Swan Risks: A Case Study of Lightning Effects on Insensitive High Explosives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders, Gary A.

Effective and efficient risk management processes include the use of high fidelity modeling and simulation during the concept exploration phase as part of the technology and risk assessment activities, with testing and evaluation tasks occurring in later design development phases. However, some safety requirements and design architectures may be dominated by the low probability/high consequence "Black Swan" vulnerabilities that require very early testing to characterize and efficiently mitigate. Failure to address these unique risks has led to catastrophic systems failures including the space shuttle Challenger, Deepwater Horizon, Fukushima nuclear reactor, and Katrina dike failures. Discovering and addressing these risks later in the design and development process can be very costly or even lead to project cancellation. This paper examines the need for risk management process adoption of early hazard phenomenology testing to inform the technical risk assessment, requirements definition and conceptual design. A case study of the lightning design vulnerability of the insensitive high explosives being used in construction, mining, demolition, and defense industries will be presented to examine the impact of this vulnerability testing during the concept exploration phase of the design effort. While these insensitive high explosives are far less sensitive to accidental initiation by fire, impact, friction or even electrical stimuli, their full range of sensitivities have not been characterized and ensuring safe engineering design and operations during events such as lightning storms requires vulnerability testing during the risk assessment phase.

A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

PubMed

Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-03-01

This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhancing the usability of seasonal to decadal (S2D) climate information - an evidence-based framework for the identification and assessment of sector-specific vulnerabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, Daniel

2016-04-01

The successful provision of from seasonal to decadal (S2D) climate service products to sector-specific users is dependent on specific problem characteristics and individual user needs and decision-making processes. Climate information requires an impact on decision making to have any value (Rodwell and Doblas-Reyes, 2006). For that reason the knowledge of sector-specific vulnerabilities to S2D climate variability is very valuable information for both, climate service producers and users. In this context a concept for a vulnerability assessment framework was developed to (i) identify climate events (and especially their temporal scales) critical for sector-specific problems to assess the basic requirements for an appropriate climate-service product development; and to (ii) assess the potential impact or value of related climate information for decision-makers. The concept was developed within the EUPORIAS project (European Provision of Regional Impacts Assessments on Seasonal and Decadal Timescales) based on ten project-related case-studies from different sectors all over Europe. In the prevalent stage the framework may be useful as preliminary assessment or 'quick-scan' of the vulnerability of specific systems to climate variability in the context of S2D climate service provision. The assessment strategy of the framework is user-focused, using predominantly a bottom-up approach (vulnerability as state) but also a top-down approach (vulnerability as outcome) generally based on qualitative data (surveys, interviews, etc.) and literature research for system understanding. The starting point of analysis is a climate-sensitive 'critical situation' of the considered system which requires a decision and is defined by the user. From this basis the related 'critical climate conditions' are assessed and 'climate information needs' are derived. This mainly refers to the critical period of time of the climate event or sequence of events. The relevant period of time of problem-specific critical climate conditions may be assessed by the resilience of the system of concern, the response time of an interconnected system (i.e. top-down approach using a bottom-up methodology) or alternatively, by the critical time-frame of decision-making processes (bottom-up approach). This approach counters the challenges for a vulnerability assessment of economic sectors to S2D climate events which originate from the inherent role of climate for economic sectors: climate may affect economic sectors as hazard, resource, production- or regulation factor. This implies, that climate dependencies are often indirect and nonlinear. Consequently, climate events which are critical for affected systems do not necessarily correlate with common climatological extremes. One important output of the framework is a classification system of 'climate-impact types' which classifies sector-specific problems in a systemic way. This system proves to be promising because (i) it reflects and thus differentiates the cause for the climate relevance of a specific problem (compositions of buffer factors); (ii) it integrates decision-making processes which proved to be a significant factor; (iii) it indicates a potential usability of S2D climate service products and thus integrates coping options, and (vi) it is a systemic approach which goes beyond the established 'snap-shot' of vulnerability assessments.

RSLR-induced increase of vulnerability to storms along the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosom, Eva; Jiménez, José A.; Nicholls, Robert J.

2014-05-01

Climate-related hazards are affecting coasts worldwide and they are likely to increase during the next decades (Nicholls et al., 2007). If we also consider that values at exposure are also increasing, coastal areas will very likely be exposed to increasing risks. Due to this, to properly develop sustainable coastal risk management plans it is necessary to consider climate-change induced effects as an additional forcing. Within this context, vulnerability assessment is a useful tool to help managers to make decisions in resource allocation and development of DRR plans. Vulnerability can be simply defined as the potential of a coastal system to be harmed by a given hazard. The negative contribution (susceptibility) is characterized through the magnitude of main induced processes (erosion and inundation) whereas the positive one (resilience) is parameterized in function of beach geomorphology. With respect to extreme events, Bosom and Jiménez (2011) presented a framework to assess coastal vulnerability to storms at regional scale adopting a probabilistic approach. In this work, this framework is enlarged by including the potential effects of RSLR on the vulnerability assessment. Thus, RSLR-driven processes (erosion and inundation) are accounted through their induced modifications on beach morphology that can affect the beach capacity of response or, in other words, its adaptation capacity. The inclusion of this effect in the vulnerability framework significantly changes coastal vulnerability values to storms at any probability of occurrence without the need of considering any change in storminess. The magnitude of the vulnerability increase depends on the considered RSLR scenario and the coastal geomorphology. This integrated framework has been applied to 219 km of the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean) considering different RSLR scenarios and time projections. Preliminary results obtained for a Tr = 50-y and the medium RSLR scenario (3.8 mm/y + subsidence) indicate a significant increase in coastal stretches with a high and very high vulnerability to storms. Thus, regarding erosion, these vulnerable stretches increase from 28 % of the coast under current conditions to 39 % and 49 % in 25-y and 50-y projections. With respect to inundation and, considering the dynamic response of the coast, the increase is smaller, from 31 % to 35 % and 40% respectively. References Nicholls RJ et al. 2007. Coastal systems and low-lying areas. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of WG II to 4th Assessment Report of IPCC, 315-356. Bosom E, Jiménez JA. 2011. Probabilistic coastal vulnerability assessment to storms at regional scale - application to Catalan beaches (NW Mediterranean). NHESS11:475-484. Acknowledgements This work has been done in the framework of the PaiRisC-M (CTM2011-29808) and RISC-KIT EU FP7 research project (603458). First author was supported by a Ph D Grant from the Spanish Ministry of Education.

Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirwan, Matthew L.; Temmerman, Stijn; Skeehan, Emily E.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2016-01-01

Coastal marshes are considered to be among the most valuable and vulnerable ecosystems on Earth, where the imminent loss of ecosystem services is a feared consequence of sea level rise. However, we show with a meta-analysis that global measurements of marsh elevation change indicate that marshes are generally building at rates similar to or exceeding historical sea level rise, and that process-based models predict survival under a wide range of future sea level scenarios. We argue that marsh vulnerability tends to be overstated because assessment methods often fail to consider biophysical feedback processes known to accelerate soil building with sea level rise, and the potential for marshes to migrate inland.

Mitigation Strategies To Protect Food Against Intentional Adulteration. Final rule.

PubMed

2016-05-27

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA or we) is issuing this final rule to require domestic and foreign food facilities that are required to register under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act (the FD&C Act) to address hazards that may be introduced with the intention to cause wide scale public health harm. These food facilities are required to conduct a vulnerability assessment to identify significant vulnerabilities and actionable process steps and implement mitigation strategies to significantly minimize or prevent significant vulnerabilities identified at actionable process steps in a food operation. FDA is issuing these requirements as part of our implementation of the FDA Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA).

Integration and Typologies of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australian Wheat Sheep Zones

PubMed Central

Huai, Jianjun

2016-01-01

Although the integrated indicator methods have become popular for assessing vulnerability to climate change, their proliferation has introduced a confusing array of scales and indicators that cause a science-policy gap. I argue for a clear adaptation pathway in an “integrative typology” of regional vulnerability that matches appropriate scales, optimal measurements and adaptive strategies in a six-dimensional and multi-level analysis framework of integration and typology inspired by the “5W1H” questions: “Who is concerned about how to adapt to the vulnerability of what to what in some place (where) at some time (when)?” Using the case of the vulnerability of wheat, barley and oats to drought in Australian wheat sheep zones during 1978–1999, I answer the “5W1H” questions through establishing the “six typologies” framework. I then optimize the measurement of vulnerability through contrasting twelve kinds of vulnerability scores with the divergence of crops yields from their regional mean. Through identifying the socioeconomic constraints, I propose seven generic types of crop-drought vulnerability and local adaptive strategy. Our results illustrate that the process of assessing vulnerability and selecting adaptations can be enhanced using a combination of integration, optimization and typology, which emphasize dynamic transitions and transformations between integration and typology. PMID:27670975

Hydrogeology, Ground-Water-Age Dating, Water Quality, and Vulnerability of Ground Water to Contamination in a Part of the Whitewater Valley Aquifer System near Richmond, Indiana, 2002-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buszka, Paul M.; Watson, Lee R.; Greeman, Theodore K.

2007-01-01

Results of detailed water-quality analyses, ground-waterage dating, and dissolved-gas analyses indicated the vulnerability of ground water to specific types of contamination, the sequence of contaminant introduction to the aquifer relative to greenfield development, and processes that may mitigate the contamination. Concentrations of chloride and sodium and chloride/bromide weight ratios in sampled water from five wells indicated the vulnerability of the upper aquifer to roaddeicer contamination. Ground-water-age estimates from these wells indicated the onset of upgradient road-deicer use within the previous 25 years. Nitrate in the upper aquifer predates the post-1972 development, based on a ground-water-age date (30 years) and the nitrate concentration (5.12 milligrams per liter as nitrogen) in water from a deep well. Vulnerability of the aquifer to nitrate contamination is limited partially by denitrification. Detection of one to four atrazine transformation products in water samples from the upper aquifer indicated biological and hydrochemical processes that may limit the vulnerability of the ground water to atrazine contamination. Microbial processes also may limit the aquifer vulnerability to small inputs of halogenated aliphatic compounds, as indicated by microbial transformations of trichlorofluoromethane and trichlorotrifluoroethane relative to dichlorodifluoromethane. The vulnerability of ground water to contamination in other parts of the aquifer system also may be mitigated by hydrodynamic dispersion and biologically mediated transformations of nitrate, pesticides, and some organic compounds. Identification of the sequence of contamination and processes affecting the vulnerability of ground water to contamination would have been unlikely with conventional assessment methods.

Climate change vulnerability assessments as catalysts for social learning: four case studies in south-eastern Australia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Preston, Benjamin L

2012-01-01

Technical assessments of vulnerability and/or risk are increasingly being undertaken to assess the impacts of climate change. Underlying this is the belief that they will bring clarity to questions regarding the scale of institutional investments required, plausible adaptation policies and measures, and the timing of their implementation. Despite the perceived importance of technical assessments in 'evidence-based' decision environments, assessments cannot be undertaken independent of values and politics, nor are they capable of eliminating the uncertainty that clouds decision-making on climate adaptation As such, assessments can trigger as many questions as they answer, leaving practitioners and stakeholders to question their value.more » This paper explores the value of vulnerability/risk assessments in climate change adaptation planning processes as a catalyst for learning in four case studies in Southeastern Australia. Data were collected using qualitative interviews with stakeholders involved in the assessments and analysed using a social learning framework. This analysis revealed that detailed and tangible strategies or actions often do not emerge directly from technical assessments. However, it also revealed that the assessments became important platforms for social learning. In providing these platforms, assessments present opportunities to question initial assumptions, explore multiple framings of an issue, generate new information, and galvanise support for collective actions. This study highlights the need for more explicit recognition and understanding of the important role social learning plays in climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning more broadly.« less

On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

PubMed Central

Wolf, Tanja; Chuang, Wen-Ching; McGregor, Glenn

2015-01-01

Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action. PMID:26512681

Coastal vulnerability assessment with the use of environmental and socio-economic indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandrakis, George; Petrakis, Stelios; Vousdoukas, Mixalis; Ghionis, George; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Kampanis, Nikolaos

2014-05-01

Climate change has significant repercussions on the natural environment, triggering obvious changes in the natural processes that have a severe socio-economic impact on the coastal zone; where a great number of human activities are concentrated. So far, the estimation of coastal vulnerability was based primarily on the natural processes and less on socio-economic variables, which would assist in the identification of vulnerable areas. The present investigation proposes a methodology to examine the vulnerability of a highly touristic area in the Island of Crete to an expected sea level rise of up to ~40 cm by the year 2100, according to the A1B scenario of IPCC 2007. The methodology includes the combination of socio-economic indicators into a GIS-based coastal vulnerability index for wave-induced erosion. This approach includes three sub-indices that contribute equally to the overall index. The sub-indices refer to coastal forcing, socio-economic and coastal characteristics. All variables are ranked on a 1-5 scale with 5 indicating higher vulnerability. The socio-economic sub-index includes, as indicators, the population of the study area, cultural heritage sites, transport networks, land use and protection measures. The coastal forcing sub-index includes the frequency of extreme events, while the Coastal Vulnerability Index includes the geological variables (coastal geomorphology, historical coastline changes, and regional coastal slope) and the variables representing the marine processes (relative sea level rise, mean significant wave height, and tidal range). The main difficulty for the estimation of the index lies in assessing and ranking the socio-economic indicators. The whole approach was tested and validated through field and desktop studies, using as a case study the Elouda bay, Crete Isl., an area of high cultural and economic value, which combines monuments from ancient and medieval times, with a very high touristic development since the 1970s.

Evaluation of social vulnerability to floods in Huaihe River basin: a methodology based on catastrophe theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, W. J.; Zhang, Y. L.

2015-08-01

Huaihe River is one of the seven largest rivers in China, in which floods occurred frequently. Disasters cause huge casualties and property losses to the basin, and also make it famous for high social vulnerability to floods. Based on the latest social-economic data, the index system of social vulnerability to floods was constructed, and Catastrophe theory method was used in the assessment process. The conclusion shows that social vulnerability as a basic attribute attached to urban environment, with significant changes from city to city across the Huaihe River basin. Different distribution characteristics are present in population, economy, flood prevention vulnerability. It is important to make further development of social vulnerability, which will play a positive role in disaster prevention, improvement of comprehensive ability to respond to disasters.

How to Perform a Security Audit: Is Your School's or District's Network Vulnerable?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dark, Melissa; Poftak, Amy

2004-01-01

In this article, the authors address the importance of taking a proactive approach to securing a school's network. To do this, it is first required to know the system's specific vulnerabilities and what steps to take to reduce them. The formal process for doing this is known as an information security risk assessment, or a security audit. What…

VuWiki: An Ontology-Based Semantic Wiki for Vulnerability Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khazai, Bijan; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Büscher, Christian; Wegner, Antje

2014-05-01

The concept of vulnerability, as well as its implementation in vulnerability assessments, is used in various disciplines and contexts ranging from disaster management and reduction to ecology, public health or climate change and adaptation, and a corresponding multitude of ideas about how to conceptualize and measure vulnerability exists. Three decades of research in vulnerability have generated a complex and growing body of knowledge that challenges newcomers, practitioners and even experienced researchers. To provide a structured representation of the knowledge field "vulnerability assessment", we have set up an ontology-based semantic wiki for reviewing and representing vulnerability assessments: VuWiki, www.vuwiki.org. Based on a survey of 55 vulnerability assessment studies, we first developed an ontology as an explicit reference system for describing vulnerability assessments. We developed the ontology in a theoretically controlled manner based on general systems theory and guided by principles for ontology development in the field of earth and environment (Raskin and Pan 2005). Four key questions form the first level "branches" or categories of the developed ontology: (1) Vulnerability of what? (2) Vulnerability to what? (3) What reference framework was used in the vulnerability assessment?, and (4) What methodological approach was used in the vulnerability assessment? These questions correspond to the basic, abstract structure of the knowledge domain of vulnerability assessments and have been deduced from theories and concepts of various disciplines. The ontology was then implemented in a semantic wiki which allows for the classification and annotation of vulnerability assessments. As a semantic wiki, VuWiki does not aim at "synthesizing" a holistic and overarching model of vulnerability. Instead, it provides both scientists and practitioners with a uniform ontology as a reference system and offers easy and structured access to the knowledge field of vulnerability assessments with the possibility for any user to retrieve assessments using specific research criteria. Furthermore, Vuwiki can serve as a collaborative knowledge platform that allows for the active participation of those generating and using the knowledge represented in the wiki.

Livelihood Cycle and Vulnerability of Rural Households to Climate Change and Hazards in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Alam, G M Monirul

2017-05-01

Rural riverine households in Bangladesh are confronted with many climate-driven hazards, including riverbank erosion, which results in loss of productive land and other natural resources of the riverine households, and thus threatens their livelihoods and food security. This study assesses the main drivers of vulnerability and livelihood cycle of vulnerable riparian households in Bangladesh. The study utilises the IPCC framework of vulnerability and develops a weighted approach by employing the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index. The results reveal that the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index differ across locations, however, a high index value for both measures indicates the households' high livelihood vulnerability to climate change and hazards. The main drivers that influence the vulnerability dimensions are livelihood strategies and access to food, water and health facilities. These hazard-prone households are also vulnerable due to their existing low livelihood status that leads to a vicious cycle of poverty. The findings of this study are crucial for policymakers to formulate and implement effective strategies and programs to minimise vulnerability and to enhance the local adaptation processes in order to improve such households' livelihood across Bangladesh.

Livelihood Cycle and Vulnerability of Rural Households to Climate Change and Hazards in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alam, G. M. Monirul

2017-05-01

Rural riverine households in Bangladesh are confronted with many climate-driven hazards, including riverbank erosion, which results in loss of productive land and other natural resources of the riverine households, and thus threatens their livelihoods and food security. This study assesses the main drivers of vulnerability and livelihood cycle of vulnerable riparian households in Bangladesh. The study utilises the IPCC framework of vulnerability and develops a weighted approach by employing the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index. The results reveal that the livelihood vulnerability index and the climate vulnerability index differ across locations, however, a high index value for both measures indicates the households' high livelihood vulnerability to climate change and hazards. The main drivers that influence the vulnerability dimensions are livelihood strategies and access to food, water and health facilities. These hazard-prone households are also vulnerable due to their existing low livelihood status that leads to a vicious cycle of poverty. The findings of this study are crucial for policymakers to formulate and implement effective strategies and programs to minimise vulnerability and to enhance the local adaptation processes in order to improve such households' livelihood across Bangladesh.

Groundwater vulnerability assessment for organic compounds: fuzzy multi-criteria approach for Mexico city.

PubMed

Mazari-Hiriart, Marisa; Cruz-Bello, Gustavo; Bojórquez-Tapia, Luis A; Juárez-Marusich, Lourdes; Alcantar-López, Georgina; Marín, Luis E; Soto-Galera, Ernesto

2006-03-01

This study was based on a groundwater vulnerability assessment approach implemented for the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The approach is based on a fuzzy multi-criteria procedure integrated in a geographic information system. The approach combined the potential contaminant sources with the permeability of geological materials. Initially, contaminant sources were ranked by experts through the Analytic Hierarchy Process. An aggregated contaminant sources map layer was obtained through the simple additive weighting method, using a scalar multiplication of criteria weights and binary maps showing the location of each source. A permeability map layer was obtained through the reclassification of a geology map using the respective hydraulic conductivity values, followed by a linear normalization of these values against a compatible scale. A fuzzy logic procedure was then applied to transform and combine the two map layers, resulting in a groundwater vulnerability map layer of five classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Results provided a more coherent assessment of the policy-making priorities considered when discussing the vulnerability of groundwater to organic compounds. The very high and high vulnerability areas covered a relatively small area (71 km(2) or 1.5% of the total study area), allowing the identification of the more critical locations. The advantage of a fuzzy logic procedure is that it enables the best possible use to be made of the information available regarding groundwater vulnerability in the MCMA.

Research on vulnerability assessments of the Huanghe (Yellow River) delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

qiao, shuqing; shi, xuefa

2014-05-01

Coastal zone located at the juncture of the sea, river and land, and under the influence of both land and ocean (including atmosphere), especially the sea-level rise and human activities, are vulnerable to environment and ecology. At highest risk are coastal zone of South, Southeast and East Asia with dense populations, low elevations and inadequate adaptive capacity. In China, more than 40% of the population live on the 15% of the land in coastal area and more than 70% cities located around the coastal area. The Chinese coastal region, especially river delta area has been experienced erosion, seawater intrusion and decrease in biodiversity under the combined influence of sea-level rise, tectonic subsidence and flooding. Furthermore, some kinds of human activity, such as land use, building, dam construction, reclamation from the sea and waste dumping strengthen the vulnerability of environment and ecosystem in coastal region. The coastal hazards (e.g. coastal erosion, seawater intrusion, land subsidence) and vulnerability of the Huanghe (Yelllow River) delta area are studied during the past several years. A systematic coastal assessment index is built and an evaluation model is developed using the development platform of Visual studio.Net 2005. The assessment index system includes two parts, inherent (sea level rise rate, elevation, morphology, water and sediment discharge, mean tidal range, mean wave height etc) and specific vulnerability index (population density, GDP, land utilization, protection structures etc). The assessment index are determined the weight using Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Based on the research results, we better understand the current status and future change of coastal vulnerability and hazards, discuss the impact of the natural possess and human activities. Furthermore, we provide defending strategies for coastal zone vulnerability and typical coastal hazards.

Involving members of vulnerable populations in the development of patient decision aids: a mixed methods sequential explanatory study.

PubMed

Dugas, Michèle; Trottier, Marie-Ève; Chipenda Dansokho, Selma; Vaisson, Gratianne; Provencher, Thierry; Colquhoun, Heather; Dogba, Maman Joyce; Dupéré, Sophie; Fagerlin, Angela; Giguere, Anik M C; Haslett, Lynne; Hoffman, Aubri S; Ivers, Noah M; Légaré, France; Légaré, Jean; Levin, Carrie A; Menear, Matthew; Renaud, Jean-Sébastien; Stacey, Dawn; Volk, Robert J; Witteman, Holly O

2017-01-19

Patient decision aids aim to present evidence relevant to a health decision in understandable ways to support patients through the process of making evidence-informed, values-congruent health decisions. It is recommended that, when developing these tools, teams involve people who may ultimately use them. However, there is little empirical evidence about how best to undertake this involvement, particularly for specific populations of users such as vulnerable populations. To describe and compare the development practices of research teams that did and did not specifically involve members of vulnerable populations in the development of patient decision aids, we conducted a secondary analysis of data from a systematic review about the development processes of patient decision aids. Then, to further explain our quantitative results, we conducted semi-structured telephone interviews with 10 teams: 6 that had specifically involved members of vulnerable populations and 4 that had not. Two independent analysts thematically coded transcribed interviews. Out of a total of 187 decision aid development projects, 30 (16%) specifically involved members of vulnerable populations. The specific involvement of members of vulnerable populations in the development process was associated with conducting informal needs assessment activities (73% vs. 40%, OR 2.96, 95% CI 1.18-7.99, P = .02) and recruiting participants through community-based organizations (40% vs. 11%, OR 3.48, 95% CI 1.23-9.83, P = .02). In interviews, all developers highlighted the importance, value and challenges of involving potential users. Interviews with developers whose projects had involved members of vulnerable populations suggested that informal needs assessment activities served to center the decision aid around users' needs, to better avoid stigma, and to ensure that the topic truly matters to the community. Partnering with community-based organizations may facilitate relationships of trust and may also provide a non-threatening and accessible location for research activities. There are a small number of key differences in the development processes for patient decision aids in which members of vulnerable populations were or were not specifically involved. Some of these practices may require additional time or resources. To address health inequities, researchers, communities and funders may need to increase awareness of these approaches and plan accordingly.

Assessing the vulnerability of economic sectors to climate variability to improve the usability of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts in Europe - a preliminary concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, Daniel

2015-04-01

Climate variability poses major challenges for decision-makers in climate-sensitive sectors. Seasonal to decadal (S2D) forecasts provide potential value for management decisions especially in the context of climate change where information from present or past climatology loses significance. However, usable and decision-relevant tailored climate forecasts are still sparse for Europe and successful examples of application require elaborate and individual producer-user interaction. The assessment of sector-specific vulnerabilities to critical climate conditions at specific temporal scale will be a great step forward to increase the usability and efficiency of climate forecasts. A concept for a sector-specific vulnerability assessment (VA) to climate variability is presented. The focus of this VA is on the provision of usable vulnerability information which can be directly incorporated in decision-making processes. This is done by developing sector-specific climate-impact-decision-pathways and the identification of their specific time frames using data from both bottom-up and top-down approaches. The structure of common VA's for climate change related issues is adopted which envisages the determination of exposure, sensitivity and coping capacity. However, the application of the common vulnerability components within the context of climate service application poses some fundamental considerations: Exposure - the effect of climate events on the system of concern may be modified and delayed due to interconnected systems (e.g. catchment). The critical time-frame of a climate event or event sequence is dependent on system-internal thresholds and initial conditions. But also on decision-making processes which require specific lead times of climate information to initiate respective coping measures. Sensitivity - in organizational systems climate may pose only one of many factors relevant for decision making. The scope of "sensitivity" in this concept comprises both the potential physical response of the system of concern as well as the criticality of climate-related decision-making processes. Coping capacity - in an operational context coping capacity can only reduce vulnerability if it can be applied purposeful. With respect to climate vulnerabilities this refers to the availability of suitable, usable and skillful climate information. The focus for this concept is on existing S2D climate service products and their match with user needs. The outputs of the VA are climate-impact-decision-pathways which characterize critical climate conditions, estimate the role of climate in decision-making processes and evaluate the availability and potential usability of S2D climate forecast products. A classification scheme is developed for each component of the impact-pathway to assess its specific significance. The systemic character of these schemes enables a broad application of this VA across sectors where quantitative data is limited. This concept is developed and will be tested within the context of the EU-FP7 project "European Provision Of Regional Impacts Assessments on Seasonal and Decadal Timescales" EUPORIAS.

Effectiveness evaluation of objective and subjective weighting methods for aquifer vulnerability assessment in urban context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahoo, Madhumita; Sahoo, Satiprasad; Dhar, Anirban; Pradhan, Biswajeet

2016-10-01

Groundwater vulnerability assessment has been an accepted practice to identify the zones with relatively increased potential for groundwater contamination. DRASTIC is the most popular secondary information-based vulnerability assessment approach. Original DRASTIC approach considers relative importance of features/sub-features based on subjective weighting/rating values. However variability of features at a smaller scale is not reflected in this subjective vulnerability assessment process. In contrast to the subjective approach, the objective weighting-based methods provide flexibility in weight assignment depending on the variation of the local system. However experts' opinion is not directly considered in the objective weighting-based methods. Thus effectiveness of both subjective and objective weighting-based approaches needs to be evaluated. In the present study, three methods - Entropy information method (E-DRASTIC), Fuzzy pattern recognition method (F-DRASTIC) and Single parameter sensitivity analysis (SA-DRASTIC), were used to modify the weights of the original DRASTIC features to include local variability. Moreover, a grey incidence analysis was used to evaluate the relative performance of subjective (DRASTIC and SA-DRASTIC) and objective (E-DRASTIC and F-DRASTIC) weighting-based methods. The performance of the developed methodology was tested in an urban area of Kanpur City, India. Relative performance of the subjective and objective methods varies with the choice of water quality parameters. This methodology can be applied without/with suitable modification. These evaluations establish the potential applicability of the methodology for general vulnerability assessment in urban context.

6 CFR 27.215 - Security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Security vulnerability assessments. 27.215... FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.215 Security vulnerability...-risk, the facility must complete a Security Vulnerability Assessment. A Security Vulnerability...

[Integrated assessment of eco-environmental vulnerability in Pearl River Delta based on RS and GIS].

PubMed

Xu, Qing-Yong; Huang, Mei; Liu, Hong-Sheng; Yan, Hui-Min

2011-11-01

Based on the remote sensing data and with the help of geographic information system, an integrated assessment was conducted on the eco-environmental vulnerability of Pearl River Delta in 2004-2008. Spatial principal component analysis was used to generate the evaluation indicators, and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to determine the weights of the evaluation factors. The reasons causing the vulnerability of the eco- environment in Pearl River Delta were discussed. In the study area, its middle part was the most vulnerable region, occupying 34.0% of the total, eastern part was the moderately vulnerable region, accounting for 25.5%, and western part was the lightly and slightly vulnerable areas, accounting for 28.7 and 11.8%, respectively. Totally, the moderately and lightly vulnerable areas occupied 54.2%, indicating that a majority of the Delta was under moderate and light vulnerability. The natural factors affecting the eco-environmental vulnerability of the Delta were altitude, heavy rain days, water and soil erosion rate, flooded infield rate, normalized difference vegetation index (ND VI) and landscape diversity index, whereas the human factors were population density, waste discharge per unit area, exhaust emission per unit area, land use change, chemical fertilization intensity, pesticide application intensity, amount of motor vehicles possessed by ten thousands people, and index of environmental protection investment. The main characteristics of the extremely and heavily vulnerable regions were low altitude, high frequency of flood disaster, large flooded infield, serious vegetation degradation, high pollution level and low environment protection investment index.

Combining landscape variables and species traits can improve the utility of climate change vulnerability assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

2016-01-01

Conservation organizations worldwide are investing in climate change vulnerability assessments. Most vulnerability assessment methods focus on either landscape features or species traits that can affect a species vulnerability to climate change. However, landscape features and species traits likely interact to affect vulnerability. We compare a landscape-based assessment, a trait-based assessment, and an assessment that combines landscape variables and species traits for 113 species of birds, herpetofauna, and mammals in the northeastern United States. Our aim is to better understand which species traits and landscape variables have the largest influence on assessment results and which types of vulnerability assessments are most useful for different objectives. Species traits were most important for determining which species will be most vulnerable to climate change. The sensitivity of species to dispersal barriers and the species average natal dispersal distance were the most important traits. Landscape features were most important for determining where species will be most vulnerable because species were most vulnerable in areas where multiple landscape features combined to increase vulnerability, regardless of species traits. The interaction between landscape variables and species traits was important when determining how to reduce climate change vulnerability. For example, an assessment that combines information on landscape connectivity, climate change velocity, and natal dispersal distance suggests that increasing landscape connectivity may not reduce the vulnerability of many species. Assessments that include landscape features and species traits will likely be most useful in guiding conservation under climate change.

Review Article: A comparison of flood and earthquake vulnerability assessment indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Ward, Philip J.; Daniell, James E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

2017-07-01

In a cross-disciplinary study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in the disciplines of earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative vulnerability indicators grouped into physical and social categories. Next, a selection of index- and curve-based vulnerability models that use these indicators are described, comparing several characteristics such as temporal and spatial aspects. Earthquake vulnerability methods traditionally have a strong focus on object-based physical attributes used in vulnerability curve-based models, while flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use classes in curve-based models. In assessing the differences and similarities between indicators used in earthquake and flood vulnerability models, we only include models that separately assess either of the two hazard types. Flood vulnerability studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as developing object-based physical vulnerability curve assessments and incorporating time-of-the-day-based building occupation patterns. Likewise, earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies by refining their selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies for exploring risk assessment methodologies across different hazard types.

Integrated assessment of urban vulnerability and resilience. Case study: Targu Ocna town, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grozavu, Adrian; Bănică, Alexandru

2015-04-01

Vulnerability assessment frequently emphasizes the internal fragility of a system in relation to a given hazard, when compared to similar systems or to a reference standard. This internal fragility, either biophysical or structural, may affect the ability to predict, to prepare for and cope with or to recover from the manifestation of a risk phenomenon. Thus, the vulnerability is highly related to resilience and adaptability. There is no single methodology for vulnerability and resilience analysis, their assessment can only be made by identifying and integrating indicators which are compatible with the analysis level and the geographic, economic and social features of a certain area. An integrated model of evaluating vulnerability and resilience capacity is being proposed in this paper for Targu Ocna, a small mining settlement in the Eastern Carpathians of Romania, that became in the last years a tourist town and acts within the surrounding territory as a dynamic local pole. Methodologically, the following steps and operations were considered: identifying potential hazards, identifying elements at risk, identifying proper indicators and integrating them in order to evaluate the general vulnerability and resilience. The inventory of elements at risk (the number of people potentially affected, residential or other functionalities buildings, roads and other infrastructure elements etc.) was made based on General Urban Plan, topographic maps (scale 1:5000), ortophotos from 2003 and 2008 and field mapping and researches. Further on, several vulnerability indicators were identified and included within the analytical approach: dependency ratio, income, quality of the habitat and technical urban facilities, environment quality showing differentiated sensitivity. Issues such as preparedness and preventive measures (priority areas within the risk prevention plans), coping ability (networks' geometry and connectivity, emergency utilities and services accessibility) and the recovering capacity (the time needed to reestablish functions after a disastrous event) were also taken into account. The selected indicators were mathematically processed (standardized and normalized) in order to maximize their relevance and to unitary express the results in the spread 0-1. Then a grid with a cell size of 100 x 100 m was created in order to spatialize vulnerability indicators, that were calculated as the average vulnerability of the exposed elements in each cell. All identified indicators have been processed within a cluster analysis that permitted the identification of similar areas in terms of vulnerabilities. Finally, a general index was obtained by the integration of all vulnerability factors in an equation based on the geometric mean. The results of the study could provide a reference basis to substantiate local correctly prioritized decisions for reducing vulnerability by mitigation and adaptation measures in order to avoid significant damages when risks materialise.

Assessing the security vulnerabilities of correctional facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spencer, Debra D.; Morrison, G. Steve

1998-12-01

The National Institute of Justice has tasked their satellite facility at Sandia National Laboratories and their Southeast Regional Technology Center in Charleston, South Carolina to devise new procedures and tools for helping correctional facilities to assess their security vulnerabilities. Thus, a team is visiting selected correctional facilities and performing vulnerability assessments. A vulnerability assessment helps identify the easiest paths for inmate escape, for introduction of contraband such as drugs or weapons, for unexpected intrusion from outside of the facility, and for the perpetration of violent acts on other inmates and correctional employees. In addition, the vulnerability assessment helps to quantify the security risks for the facility. From these assessments will come better procedures for performing vulnerability assessments in general at other correctional facilities, as well as the development of tools to assist with the performance of such vulnerability assessments.

Socio-economic vulnerability to natural hazards - proposal for an indicator-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eidsvig, U.; McLean, A.; Vangelsten, B. V.; Kalsnes, B.; Ciurean, R. L.; Argyroudis, S.; Winter, M.; Corominas, J.; Mavrouli, O. C.; Fotopoulou, S.; Pitilakis, K.; Baills, A.; Malet, J. P.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment, with respect to natural hazards, is a complex process that must consider multiple dimensions of vulnerability, including both physical and social factors. Physical vulnerability refers to conditions of physical assets, and may be modeled by the intensity and magnitude of the hazard, the degree of physical protection provided by the natural and built environment, and the physical robustness of the exposed elements. Social vulnerability refers to the underlying factors leading to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand impacts from the natural hazards. Social vulnerability models can be used in combination with physical vulnerability models to estimate both direct losses, i.e. losses that occur during and immediately after the impact, as well as indirect losses, i.e. long-term effects of the event. Direct impact of a landslide typically includes casualties and damages to buildings and infrastructure while indirect losses may e.g. include business closures or limitations in public services. The direct losses are often assessed using physical vulnerability indicators (e.g. construction material, height of buildings), while indirect losses are mainly assessed using social indicators (e.g. economical resources, demographic conditions). Within the EC-FP7 SafeLand research project, an indicator-based method was proposed to assess relative socio-economic vulnerability to landslides. The indicators represent the underlying factors which influence a community's ability to prepare for, deal with, and recover from the damage associated with landslides. The proposed model includes indicators representing demographic, economic and social characteristics as well as indicators representing the degree of preparedness and recovery capacity. Although the model focuses primarily on the indirect losses, it could easily be extended to include more physical indicators which account for the direct losses. Each indicator is individually ranked from 1 (lowest vulnerability) to 5 (highest vulnerability) and weighted, based on its overall degree of influence. The indicator weights range from 1 (least influential) to 3 (most influential) and have been selected on the basis of expert judgment. The final vulnerability score is taken as the weighted average of the individual indicators. The method was applied for locations in Norway, Greece, France, Andorra and Romania. The purpose of the case studies was to compare vulnerability levels and to test and possibly improve the methodology. In the case studies, similar vulnerability scores were obtained for the locations in Norway, Andorra and France. A higher vulnerability score was obtained for the location in Greece, while the highest vulnerability score was obtained for the location in Romania. The higher score for the locations in Greece and Romania are mainly due to economic conditions and conditions regarding preparedness and recovery.

Automating Flood Hazard Mapping Methods for Near Real-time Storm Surge Inundation and Vulnerability Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Gallagher, D.

2015-12-01

Storm surge has enough destructive power to damage buildings and infrastructure, erode beaches, and threaten human life across large geographic areas, hence posing the greatest threat of all the hurricane hazards. The United States Gulf of Mexico has proven vulnerable to hurricanes as it has been hit by some of the most destructive hurricanes on record. With projected rises in sea level and increases in hurricane activity, there is a need to better understand the associated risks for disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response. GIS has become a critical tool in enhancing disaster planning, risk assessment, and emergency response by communicating spatial information through a multi-layer approach. However, there is a need for a near real-time method of identifying areas with a high risk of being impacted by storm surge. Research was conducted alongside Baron, a private industry weather enterprise, to facilitate automated modeling and visualization of storm surge inundation and vulnerability on a near real-time basis. This research successfully automated current flood hazard mapping techniques using a GIS framework written in a Python programming environment, and displayed resulting data through an Application Program Interface (API). Data used for this methodology included high resolution topography, NOAA Probabilistic Surge model outputs parsed from Rich Site Summary (RSS) feeds, and the NOAA Census tract level Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The development process required extensive data processing and management to provide high resolution visualizations of potential flooding and population vulnerability in a timely manner. The accuracy of the developed methodology was assessed using Hurricane Isaac as a case study, which through a USGS and NOAA partnership, contained ample data for statistical analysis. This research successfully created a fully automated, near real-time method for mapping high resolution storm surge inundation and vulnerability for the Gulf of Mexico, and improved the accuracy and resolution of the Probabilistic Storm Surge model.

Vulnerability of National Park Service beaches to inundation during a direct hurricane landfall: Fire Island National Seashore

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stockdon, Hilary F.; Thompson, David M.

2007-01-01

Waves and storm surge associated with strong tropical storms are part of the natural process of barrier-island evolution and can cause extensive morphologic changes in coastal parks, leading to reduced visitor accessibility and enjoyment. Even at Fire Island National Seashore, a barrier-island coastal park in New York where extratropical storms (northeasters) dominate storm activity, the beaches are vulnerable to the powerful, sand-moving forces of hurricanes. The vulnerability of park beaches to inundation, and associated extreme coastal change, during a direct hurricane landfall can be assessed by comparing the elevations of storm-induced mean-water levels (storm surge) to the elevations of the crest of the sand dune that defines the beach system. Maps detailing the inundation potential for Category 1-4 hurricanes can be used by park managers to determine the relative vulnerability of various barrier-island parks and to assess which areas of a particular park are more susceptible to inundation and extreme coastal changes.

Probabilistic seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of stone masonry structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abo El Ezz, Ahmad

Earthquakes represent major natural hazards that regularly impact the built environment in seismic prone areas worldwide and cause considerable social and economic losses. The high losses incurred following the past destructive earthquakes promoted the need for assessment of the seismic vulnerability and risk of the existing buildings. Many historic buildings in the old urban centers in Eastern Canada such as Old Quebec City are built of stone masonry and represent un-measurable architectural and cultural heritage. These buildings were built to resist gravity loads only and generally offer poor resistance to lateral seismic loads. Seismic vulnerability assessment of stone masonry buildings is therefore the first necessary step in developing seismic retrofitting and pre-disaster mitigation plans. The objective of this study is to develop a set of probability-based analytical tools for efficient seismic vulnerability and uncertainty analysis of stone masonry buildings. A simplified probabilistic analytical methodology for vulnerability modelling of stone masonry building with systematic treatment of uncertainties throughout the modelling process is developed in the first part of this study. Building capacity curves are developed using a simplified mechanical model. A displacement based procedure is used to develop damage state fragility functions in terms of spectral displacement response based on drift thresholds of stone masonry walls. A simplified probabilistic seismic demand analysis is proposed to capture the combined uncertainty in capacity and demand on fragility functions. In the second part, a robust analytical procedure for the development of seismic hazard compatible fragility and vulnerability functions is proposed. The results are given by sets of seismic hazard compatible vulnerability functions in terms of structure-independent intensity measure (e.g. spectral acceleration) that can be used for seismic risk analysis. The procedure is very efficient for conducting rapid vulnerability assessment of stone masonry buildings. With modification of input structural parameters, it can be adapted and applied to any other building class. A sensitivity analysis of the seismic vulnerability modelling is conducted to quantify the uncertainties associated with each of the input parameters. The proposed methodology was validated for a scenario-based seismic risk assessment of existing buildings in Old Quebec City. The procedure for hazard compatible vulnerability modelling was used to develop seismic fragility functions in terms of spectral acceleration representative of the inventoried buildings. A total of 1220 buildings were considered. The assessment was performed for a scenario event of magnitude 6.2 at distance 15km with a probability of exceedance of 2% in 50 years. The study showed that most of the expected damage is concentrated in the old brick and stone masonry buildings.

On the complex quantification of risk: systems-based perspective on terrorism.

PubMed

Haimes, Yacov Y

2011-08-01

This article highlights the complexity of the quantification of the multidimensional risk function, develops five systems-based premises on quantifying the risk of terrorism to a threatened system, and advocates the quantification of vulnerability and resilience through the states of the system. The five premises are: (i) There exists interdependence between a specific threat to a system by terrorist networks and the states of the targeted system, as represented through the system's vulnerability, resilience, and criticality-impact. (ii) A specific threat, its probability, its timing, the states of the targeted system, and the probability of consequences can be interdependent. (iii) The two questions in the risk assessment process: "What is the likelihood?" and "What are the consequences?" can be interdependent. (iv) Risk management policy options can reduce both the likelihood of a threat to a targeted system and the associated likelihood of consequences by changing the states (including both vulnerability and resilience) of the system. (v) The quantification of risk to a vulnerable system from a specific threat must be built on a systemic and repeatable modeling process, by recognizing that the states of the system constitute an essential step to construct quantitative metrics of the consequences based on intelligence gathering, expert evidence, and other qualitative information. The fact that the states of all systems are functions of time (among other variables) makes the time frame pivotal in each component of the process of risk assessment, management, and communication. Thus, risk to a system, caused by an initiating event (e.g., a threat) is a multidimensional function of the specific threat, its probability and time frame, the states of the system (representing vulnerability and resilience), and the probabilistic multidimensional consequences. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Source Code Vulnerability Assessment Methodology

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

Information Sciences Directorate’s (CISD) Center for Intrusion Detection Monitoring and Protection ( CIMP ) to reverse engineer tools captured by...application terminates. It is possible, however, to write past the buffer boundary in a controlled way such that the value for EIP can be overwritten with...vulnerability is widely known and has been exploited in the past . This work provides a proof-of-concept for the ARL/SLAD CAM and exploit development process

77 FR 28894 - Maritime Vulnerability Self-Assessment Tool

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-16

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Transportation Security Administration Maritime Vulnerability Self... maritime vulnerability self- assessment tool. SUMMARY: The Transportation Security Administration (TSA... conducting vulnerability assessments became available and usage of the TMSARM has dropped off considerably...

[A systemic risk analysis of hospital management processes by medical employees--an effective basis for improving patient safety].

PubMed

Sobottka, Stephan B; Eberlein-Gonska, Maria; Schackert, Gabriele; Töpfer, Armin

2009-01-01

Due to the knowledge gap that exists between patients and health care staff the quality of medical treatment usually cannot be assessed securely by patients. For an optimization of safety in treatment-related processes of medical care, the medical staff needs to be actively involved in preventive and proactive quality management. Using voluntary, confidential and non-punitive systematic employee surveys, vulnerable topics and areas in patient care revealing preventable risks can be identified at an early stage. Preventive measures to continuously optimize treatment quality can be defined by creating a risk portfolio and a priority list of vulnerable topics. Whereas critical incident reporting systems are suitable for continuous risk assessment by detecting safety-relevant single events, employee surveys permit to conduct a systematic risk analysis of all treatment-related processes of patient care at any given point in time.

Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment Along the Coast of Visakhapatnam, North-East Coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vivek, G.; Grinivasa Kumar, T.

2016-08-01

The current study area is coastal zone of Visakhapatnam, district of Andhra Pradesh along the coast of India. This area is mostly vulnerable to many disasters such as storms, cyclone, flood, tsunami and erosion. This area is considered as cyclone prone area because of frequently occurrence of the cyclones in this area. Recently the two tropical cyclones that formed in the Bay of Bengal are Hudhud (October 13, 2014) and Phylin (October 11, 2013), has caused devastating impacts on the eastern coast and shows that the country has lack of preparedness to cyclone, storm surge and related natural hazards. The multi-hazard vulnerability maps prepared here are a blended and combined overlay of multiple hazards those affecting the coastal zone. The present study aims to develop a methodology for coastal multi-hazard vulnerability assessment. This study carried out using parameters like probability of coastal slope, tsunami arrival height, future sea level rise, coastal erosion and tidal range. The multi-hazard vulnerability maps prepared by overlaying of multi hazards those affecting the coastal zone. Multi-hazard vulnerability maps further reproduced as risk maps with the land use information. The decision making tools presented here can provide a useful information during the disaster for the evacuation process and to evolve a management strategy.

Using cyber vulnerability testing techniques to expose undocumented security vulnerabilities in DCS and SCADA equipment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pollet, J.

2006-07-01

This session starts by providing an overview of typical DCS (Distributed Control Systems) and SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) architectures, and exposes cyber security vulnerabilities that vendors never admit, but are found through a comprehensive cyber testing process. A complete assessment process involves testing all of the layers and components of a SCADA or DCS environment, from the perimeter firewall all the way down to the end devices controlling the process, including what to look for when conducting a vulnerability assessment of real-time control systems. The following systems are discussed: 1. Perimeter (isolation from corporate IT or other non-criticalmore » networks) 2. Remote Access (third Party access into SCADA or DCS networks) 3. Network Architecture (switch, router, firewalls, access controls, network design) 4. Network Traffic Analysis (what is running on the network) 5. Host Operating Systems Hardening 6. Applications (how they communicate with other applications and end devices) 7. End Device Testing (PLCs, RTUs, DCS Controllers, Smart Transmitters) a. System Discovery b. Functional Discovery c. Attack Methodology i. DoS Tests (at what point does the device fail) ii. Malformed Packet Tests (packets that can cause equipment failure) iii. Session Hijacking (do anything that the operator can do) iv. Packet Injection (code and inject your own SCADA commands) v. Protocol Exploitation (Protocol Reverse Engineering / Fuzzing) This paper will provide information compiled from over five years of conducting cyber security testing on control systems hardware, software, and systems. (authors)« less

The origins of cognitive vulnerability in early childhood: mechanisms linking early attachment to later depression.

PubMed

Morley, Tara E; Moran, Greg

2011-11-01

This paper examines the theory and research linking attachment relationships to cognitive vulnerability to depression and assesses evidence that early attachment experiences contribute to the development of these cognitive processes. Most research in this area has involved adult participants using self-report measures of both attachment and depressive vulnerabilities and thus cannot convincingly speak to the existence of such a developmental pathway. Several studies, however, have followed individuals from infancy and examined the emergence of self-esteem and responses to failure throughout childhood and adolescence. These studies suggest that early experiences in non-secure attachment relationships place an individual at-risk for developing a cognitive framework that increases their vulnerability to depression following stressful life events. The paper concludes with a discussion of how future research might best explore specific mechanisms through which distinct attachment relationships may lead to divergent developmental pathways sharing the common outcome of cognitive processes that place individuals at risk for depression. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Working memory and attention deficits in adolescent offspring of schizophrenia or bipolar patients: comparing vulnerability markers.

PubMed

Diwadkar, Vaibhav A; Goradia, Dhruman; Hosanagar, Avinash; Mermon, Diana; Montrose, Debra M; Birmaher, Boris; Axelson, David; Rajarathinem, R; Haddad, Luay; Amirsadri, Ali; Zajac-Benitez, Caroline; Rajan, Usha; Keshavan, Matcheri S

2011-07-01

Working memory deficits abound in schizophrenia and attention deficits have been documented in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Adolescent offspring of patients may inherit vulnerabilities in brain circuits that subserve these cognitive domains. Here we assess impairments in offspring of schizophrenia (SCZ-Offspring) or bipolar (BP-Offspring) patients compared to controls (HC) with no family history of mood or psychotic disorders to the second degree. Three groups (n=100 subjects; range: 10-20 yrs) of HC, SCZ-Offspring and BP-Offspring gave informed consent. Working memory was assessed using a delayed spatial memory paradigm with two levels of delay (2s & 12s); sustained attention processing was assessed using the Continuous Performance Task-Identical Pairs version. SCZ-Offspring (but not BP-Offspring) showed impairments in working memory (relative to HC) at the longer memory delay indicating a unique deficit. Both groups showed reduced sensitivity during attention but only BP-Offspring significantly differed from controls. These results suggest unique (working memory/dorsal frontal cortex) and potentially overlapping (attention/fronto-striatal cortex) vulnerability pathways in adolescent offspring of patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Working memory and attention assessments in these offspring may assist in the clinical characterization of the adolescents vulnerable to SCZ or BP. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Putting vulnerability to climate change on the map: a review of approaches, benefits, and risks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Preston, Benjamin L

2011-01-01

There is growing demand among stakeholders across public and private institutions for spatially-explicit information regarding vulnerability to climate change at the local scale. However, the challenges associated with mapping the geography of climate change vulnerability are non-trivial, both conceptually and technically, suggesting the need for more critical evaluation of this practice. Here, we review climate change vulnerability mapping in the context of four key questions that are fundamental to assessment design. First, what are the goals of the assessment? A review of published assessments yields a range of objective statements that emphasize problem orientation or decision-making about adaptation actions. Second,more » how is the assessment of vulnerability framed? Assessments vary with respect to what values are assessed (vulnerability of what) and the underlying determinants of vulnerability that are considered (vulnerability to what). The selected frame ultimately influences perceptions of the primary driving forces of vulnerability as well as preferences regarding management alternatives. Third, what are the technical methods by which an assessment is conducted? The integration of vulnerability determinants into a common map remains an emergent and subjective practice associated with a number of methodological challenges. Fourth, who participates in the assessment and how will it be used to facilitate change? Assessments are often conducted under the auspices of benefiting stakeholders, yet many lack direct engagement with stakeholders. Each of these questions is reviewed in turn by drawing on an illustrative set of 45 vulnerability mapping studies appearing in the literature. A number of pathways for placing vulnerability« less

A multi-site reconstruction algorithm for bottom-up vulnerability assessment of water resource systems to changing streamflow conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazemi, A.; Zaerpour, M.

2016-12-01

Current paradigm for assessing the vulnerability of water resource systems to changing streamflow conditions often involves a cascade application of climate and hydrological models to project the future states of streamflow regime, entering to a given water resource system. It is widely warned, however, that the overall uncertainty in this "top-down" modeling enterprise can be large due to the limitations in representing natural and anthropogenic processes that affect future streamflow variability and change. To address this, various types of stress-tests are suggested to assess the vulnerability of water resources systems under a wide range of possible changes in streamflow conditions. The scope of such "bottom-up" assessments can go well beyond top-down projections and therefore provide a basis for monitoring different response modes, under which water resource systems become vulnerable. Despite methodological differences, all bottom-up assessments are equipped with a systematic sampling procedure, with which different possibilities for future climate and/or streamflow conditions can be realized. Regardless of recent developments, currently available streamflow sampling algorithms are still limited, particularly in regional contexts, for which accurate representation of spatiotemporal dependencies in streamflow regime are of major importance. In this presentation, we introduce a new development that enables handling temporal and spatial dependencies in regional streamflow regimes through a unified stochastic reconstruction algorithm. We demonstrate the application of this algorithm accross various Canadian regions. By considering a real-world regional water resources system, we show how the new multi-site reconstruction algorithm can extend the practical utility of bottom-up vulnerability assessment and improve quantifying the associated risk in natural and anthropogenic water systems under unknown future conditions.

49 CFR 15.5 - Sensitive security information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... requirements of Federal law. (5) Vulnerability assessments. Any vulnerability assessment directed, created... security requirements of Federal law that could reveal a security vulnerability, including the identity of... Guard responsible for conducting vulnerability assessments, security boardings, or engaged in operations...

I-C-SEA Change: A participatory tool for rapid assessment of vulnerability of tropical coastal communities to climate change impacts.

PubMed

Licuanan, Wilfredo Y; Samson, Maricar S; Mamauag, Samuel S; David, Laura T; Borja-Del Rosario, Roselle; Quibilan, Miledel Christine C; Siringan, Fernando P; Sta Maria, Ma Yvainne Y; España, Norievill B; Villanoy, Cesar L; Geronimo, Rollan C; Cabrera, Olivia C; Martinez, Renmar Jun S; Aliño, Porfirio M

2015-12-01

We present a synoptic, participatory vulnerability assessment tool to help identify the likely impacts of climate change and human activity in coastal areas and begin discussions among stakeholders on the coping and adaptation measures necessary to minimize these impacts. Vulnerability assessment tools are most needed in the tropical Indo-Pacific, where burgeoning populations and inequitable economic growth place even greater burdens on natural resources and support ecosystems. The Integrated Coastal Sensitivity, Exposure, and Adaptive Capacity for Climate Change (I-C-SEA Change) tool is built around a series of scoring rubrics to guide non-specialists in assigning scores to the sensitivity and adaptive capacity components of vulnerability, particularly for coral reef, seagrass, and mangrove habitats, along with fisheries and coastal integrity. These scores are then weighed against threat or exposure to climate-related impacts such as marine flooding and erosion. The tool provides opportunities for learning by engaging more stakeholders in participatory planning and group decision-making. It also allows for information to be collated and processed during a "town-hall" meeting, facilitating further discussion, data validation, and even interactive scenario building.

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to pollution: a combination of GIS, fuzzy logic and decision making techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gemitzi, Alexandra; Petalas, Christos; Tsihrintzis, Vassilios A.; Pisinaras, Vassilios

2006-03-01

The assessment of groundwater vulnerability to pollution aims at highlighting areas at a high risk of being polluted. This study presents a methodology, to estimate the risk of an aquifer to be polluted from concentrated and/or dispersed sources, which applies an overlay and index method involving several parameters. The parameters are categorized into three factor groups: factor group 1 includes parameters relevant to the internal aquifer system’s properties, thus determining the intrinsic aquifer vulnerability to pollution; factor group 2 comprises parameters relevant to the external stresses to the system, such as human activities and rainfall effects; factor group 3 incorporates specific geological settings, such as the presence of geothermal fields or salt intrusion zones, into the computation process. Geographical information systems have been used for data acquisition and processing, coupled with a multicriteria evaluation technique enhanced with fuzzy factor standardization. Moreover, besides assigning weights to factors, a second set of weights, i.e., order weights, has been applied to factors on a pixel by pixel basis, thus allowing control of the level of risk in the vulnerability determination and the enhancement of local site characteristics. Individual analysis of each factor group resulted in three intermediate groundwater vulnerability to pollution maps, which were combined in order to produce the final composite groundwater vulnerability map for the study area. The method has been applied in the region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace (Northern Greece), an area of approximately 14,000 km2. The methodology has been tested and calibrated against the measured nitrate concentration in wells, in the northwest part of the study area, providing results related to the aggregation and weighting procedure.

Multi-dimensional flood vulnerability assessment using data envelopment analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahid, Zalina; Saharizan, Nurul Syuhada; Hamzah, Paezah; Hussin, Siti Aida Sheikh; Khairi, Siti Shaliza Mohd

2017-11-01

Malaysia has been greatly impacted by flood during monsoon seasons. Even though flood prone areas are well identified, assessment on the vulnerability of the disaster is lacking. Assessment of flood vulnerability, defined as the potential for loss when a disaster occurs, is addressed in this paper. The focus is on the development of flood vulnerability measurement in 11 states in Peninsular Malaysia using a non-parametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis. Scores for three dimensions of flood vulnerability (Population Vulnerability, Social Vulnerability and Biophysical) were calculated using secondary data of selected input and output variables across an 11-year period from 2004 to 2014. The results showed that Johor and Pahang were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Population Vulnerability, followed by Kelantan, the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Social Vulnerability and Kedah, Pahang and Terengganu were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Biophysical Vulnerability among the eleven states. The results also showed that the state of Johor, Pahang and Kelantan to be most vulnerable across the three dimensions. Flood vulnerability assessment is important as it provides invaluable information that will allow the authority to identify and develop plans for flood mitigation and to reduce the vulnerability of flood at the affected regions.

Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes.

PubMed

Graham, Nicholas A J; Chabanet, Pascale; Evans, Richard D; Jennings, Simon; Letourneur, Yves; Aaron Macneil, M; McClanahan, Tim R; Ohman, Marcus C; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Wilson, Shaun K

2011-04-01

With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes

PubMed Central

Graham, Nicholas A J; Chabanet, Pascale; Evans, Richard D; Jennings, Simon; Letourneur, Yves; Aaron MacNeil, M; McClanahan, Tim R; Öhman, Marcus C; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Wilson, Shaun K

2011-01-01

With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate. PMID:21320260

Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment.

PubMed

Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N H

2017-09-01

Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N. H.

2017-09-01

Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

ORD's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (REVA) Program is developing and demonstrating approaches to assess current and future environmental vulnerabilities so that risk management activities can be targeted. The sister program to EMA.P (Environmental Monitoring Assessment Progr...

Coverage of Large-Scale Food Fortification of Edible Oil, Wheat Flour, and Maize Flour Varies Greatly by Vehicle and Country but Is Consistently Lower among the Most Vulnerable: Results from Coverage Surveys in 8 Countries123

PubMed Central

Aaron, Grant J; Friesen, Valerie M; Jungjohann, Svenja; Garrett, Greg S; Myatt, Mark

2017-01-01

Background: Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) of commonly consumed food vehicles is widely implemented in low- and middle-income countries. Many programs have monitoring information gaps and most countries fail to assess program coverage. Objective: The aim of this work was to present LSFF coverage survey findings (overall and in vulnerable populations) from 18 programs (7 wheat flour, 4 maize flour, and 7 edible oil programs) conducted in 8 countries between 2013 and 2015. Methods: A Fortification Assessment Coverage Toolkit (FACT) was developed to standardize the assessments. Three indicators were used to assess the relations between coverage and vulnerability: 1) poverty, 2) poor dietary diversity, and 3) rural residence. Three measures of coverage were assessed: 1) consumption of the vehicle, 2) consumption of a fortifiable vehicle, and 3) consumption of a fortified vehicle. Individual program performance was assessed based on the following: 1) achieving overall coverage ≥50%, 2) achieving coverage of ≥75% in ≥1 vulnerable group, and 3) achieving equity in coverage for ≥1 vulnerable group. Results: Coverage varied widely by food vehicle and country. Only 2 of the 18 LSFF programs assessed met all 3 program performance criteria. The 2 main program bottlenecks were a poor choice of vehicle and failure to fortify a fortifiable vehicle (i.e., absence of fortification). Conclusions: The results highlight the importance of sound program design and routine monitoring and evaluation. There is strong evidence of the impact and cost-effectiveness of LSFF; however, impact can only be achieved when the necessary activities and processes during program design and implementation are followed. The FACT approach fills an important gap in the availability of standardized tools. The LSFF programs assessed here need to be re-evaluated to determine whether to further invest in the programs, whether other vehicles are appropriate, and whether other approaches are needed. PMID:28404836

Coverage of Large-Scale Food Fortification of Edible Oil, Wheat Flour, and Maize Flour Varies Greatly by Vehicle and Country but Is Consistently Lower among the Most Vulnerable: Results from Coverage Surveys in 8 Countries.

PubMed

Aaron, Grant J; Friesen, Valerie M; Jungjohann, Svenja; Garrett, Greg S; Neufeld, Lynnette M; Myatt, Mark

2017-05-01

Background: Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) of commonly consumed food vehicles is widely implemented in low- and middle-income countries. Many programs have monitoring information gaps and most countries fail to assess program coverage. Objective: The aim of this work was to present LSFF coverage survey findings (overall and in vulnerable populations) from 18 programs (7 wheat flour, 4 maize flour, and 7 edible oil programs) conducted in 8 countries between 2013 and 2015. Methods: A Fortification Assessment Coverage Toolkit (FACT) was developed to standardize the assessments. Three indicators were used to assess the relations between coverage and vulnerability: 1 ) poverty, 2 ) poor dietary diversity, and 3 ) rural residence. Three measures of coverage were assessed: 1 ) consumption of the vehicle, 2 ) consumption of a fortifiable vehicle, and 3 ) consumption of a fortified vehicle. Individual program performance was assessed based on the following: 1 ) achieving overall coverage ≥50%, 2) achieving coverage of ≥75% in ≥1 vulnerable group, and 3 ) achieving equity in coverage for ≥1 vulnerable group. Results: Coverage varied widely by food vehicle and country. Only 2 of the 18 LSFF programs assessed met all 3 program performance criteria. The 2 main program bottlenecks were a poor choice of vehicle and failure to fortify a fortifiable vehicle (i.e., absence of fortification). Conclusions: The results highlight the importance of sound program design and routine monitoring and evaluation. There is strong evidence of the impact and cost-effectiveness of LSFF; however, impact can only be achieved when the necessary activities and processes during program design and implementation are followed. The FACT approach fills an important gap in the availability of standardized tools. The LSFF programs assessed here need to be re-evaluated to determine whether to further invest in the programs, whether other vehicles are appropriate, and whether other approaches are needed.

Integrated Earthquake Risk Assessment in the Kathmandu Valley - A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaper, Julia; Anhorn, Johannes; Khazai, Bijan; Nüsser, Marcus

2013-04-01

Rapid urban growth is a process which can be observed in cities worldwide. Managing these growing urban areas has become a major challenge for both governing bodies and citizens. Situated not only in a highly earthquake and landslide-prone area, but comprising also the cultural and political capital of Nepal, the fast expanding Kathmandu Valley in the Himalayan region is of particular interest. Vulnerability assessment has been an important tool for spatial planning in this already densely populated area. The magnitude 8.4 earthquake of Bihar in 1934 cost 8600 Nepalis their lives, destroyed 20% of the Kathmandu building stock and heavily damaged another 40%. Since then, Kathmandu has grown into a hub with over a million inhabitants. Rapid infrastructure and population growth aggravate the vulnerability conditions, particularly in the core area of Metropolitan Kathmandu. We propose an integrative framework for vulnerability and risk in Kathmandu Valley. In order to move towards a more systemic and integrated approach, we focus on interactions between natural hazards, physically engineered systems and society. High resolution satellite images are used to identify structural vulnerability of the building stock within the study area. Using object-based image analysis, the spatial dynamics of urban growth are assessed and validated using field data. Complementing this is the analysis of socio-economic attributes gained from databases and field surveys. An indicator-based vulnerability and resilience index will be operationalized using multi-attribute value theory and statistical methods such as principal component analysis. The results allow for a socio-economic comparison of places and their relative potential for harm and loss. The objective in this task is to better understand the interactions between nature and society, engineered systems and built environments through the development of an interdisciplinary framework on systemic seismic risk and vulnerability. Data from incidences of large-scale Himalayan earthquake disasters will form the basis for a multi-temporal analysis. By analyzing different time slots we identify development paths and building integrity shifts in the light of dynamic urbanization processes. Hereby, future trends and spatial scenarios can be developed. We suggest a goal oriented indicator evaluation process to compare different development scenarios. This serves as an orientation for spatial planning strategies for local and international stakeholders.

USE OF REVA'S WEB-BASED ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION TOOLKIT (EDT) TO ASSESS VULNERABILITY TO MERCURY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

The problem of assessing risk from mercury across the nation is extremely complex involving integration of 1) our understanding of the methylation process in ecosystems, 2) the identification and spatial distribution of sensitive populations, and 3) the spatial pattern of mercury...

Triage: an investigation of the process and potential vulnerabilities.

PubMed

Hitchcock, Maree; Gillespie, Brigid; Crilly, Julia; Chaboyer, Wendy

2014-07-01

To explore and describe the triage process in the Emergency Department to identify problems and potential vulnerabilities that may affect the triage process. Triage is the first step in the patient journey in the Emergency Department and is often the front line in reducing the potential for errors and mistakes. A fieldwork study to provide an in-depth appreciation and understanding of the triage process. Fieldwork included unstructured observer-only observation, field notes, informal and formal interviews that were conducted over the months of June, July and August 2012. Over 170 hours of observation were performed covering day, evening and night shifts, 7 days of the week. Sixty episodes of triage were observed; 31 informal interviews and 14 formal interviews were completed. Thematic analysis was used. Three themes were identified from the analysis of the data and included: 'negotiating patient flow and care delivery through the Emergency Department'; 'interdisciplinary team communicating and collaborating to provide appropriate and safe care to patients'; and 'varying levels of competence of the triage nurse'. In these themes, vulnerabilities and problems described included over and under triage, extended time to triage assessment, triage errors, multiple patients arriving simultaneously, emergency department and hospital overcrowding. Findings suggest that vulnerabilities in the triage process may cause disruptions to patient flow and compromise care, thus potentially impacting nurses' ability to provide safe and effective care. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Model (I-VAM).

PubMed

Ezell, Barry Charles

2007-06-01

Quantifying vulnerability to critical infrastructure has not been adequately addressed in the literature. Thus, the purpose of this article is to present a model that quantifies vulnerability. Vulnerability is defined as a measure of system susceptibility to threat scenarios. This article asserts that vulnerability is a condition of the system and it can be quantified using the Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Model (I-VAM). The model is presented and then applied to a medium-sized clean water system. The model requires subject matter experts (SMEs) to establish value functions and weights, and to assess protection measures of the system. Simulation is used to account for uncertainty in measurement, aggregate expert assessment, and to yield a vulnerability (Omega) density function. Results demonstrate that I-VAM is useful to decisionmakers who prefer quantification to qualitative treatment of vulnerability. I-VAM can be used to quantify vulnerability to other infrastructures, supervisory control and data acquisition systems (SCADA), and distributed control systems (DCS).

Improving vulnerability models: lessons learned from a comparison between flood and earthquake assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen; Ward, Philip; Daniell, James; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

In a cross-discipline study, an extensive literature review has been conducted to increase the understanding of vulnerability indicators used in both earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments, and to provide insights into potential improvements of earthquake and flood vulnerability assessments. It identifies and compares indicators used to quantitatively assess earthquake and flood vulnerability, and discusses their respective differences and similarities. Indicators have been categorized into Physical- and Social categories, and further subdivided into (when possible) measurable and comparable indicators. Physical vulnerability indicators have been differentiated to exposed assets such as buildings and infrastructure. Social indicators are grouped in subcategories such as demographics, economics and awareness. Next, two different vulnerability model types have been described that use these indicators: index- and curve-based vulnerability models. A selection of these models (e.g. HAZUS) have been described, and compared on several characteristics such as temporal- and spatial aspects. It appears that earthquake vulnerability methods are traditionally strongly developed towards physical attributes at an object scale and used in vulnerability curve models, whereas flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use scales. Flood risk studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as incorporating more detailed lifeline and building indicators, and developing object-based vulnerability curve assessments of physical vulnerability, for example by defining building material based flood vulnerability curves. Related to this, is the incorporation of time of the day based building occupation patterns (at 2am most people will be at home while at 2pm most people will be in the office). Earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies when it comes to the refined selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies to further explore cross-hazard studies.

6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability... of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and approve in writing all Security Vulnerability Assessments that satisfy the requirements of § 27.215...

Understanding Risk Tolerance and Building an Effective Safety Culture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loyd, David

2018-01-01

Estimates range from 65-90 percent of catastrophic mishaps are due to human error. NASA's human factors-related mishaps causes are estimated at approximately 75 percent. As much as we'd like to error-proof our work environment, even the most automated and complex technical endeavors require human interaction... and are vulnerable to human frailty. Industry and government are focusing not only on human factors integration into hazardous work environments, but also looking for practical approaches to cultivating a strong Safety Culture that diminishes risk. Industry and government organizations have recognized the value of monitoring leading indicators to identify potential risk vulnerabilities. NASA has adapted this approach to assess risk controls associated with hazardous, critical, and complex facilities. NASA's facility risk assessments integrate commercial loss control, OSHA (Occupational Safety and Health Administration) Process Safety, API (American Petroleum Institute) Performance Indicator Standard, and NASA Operational Readiness Inspection concepts to identify risk control vulnerabilities.

Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Framework, Third Edition

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-11-01

The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Framework (the Framework), third edition, is a manual to help transportation agencies and their partners assess the vulnerability of transportation infrastructu...

Northeast and Midwest regional species and habitats at greatest risk and most vulnerable to climate impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staudinger, Michelle D.; Hilberg, Laura; Janowiak, Maria; Swanton, C.O.

2016-01-01

The objectives of this Chapter are to describe climate change vulnerability, it’s components, the range of assessment methods being implemented regionally, and examples of training resources and tools. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments (CCVAs) have already been conducted for numerous Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need and their dependent 5 habitats across the Northeast and Midwest. This chapter provides a synthesis of different assessment frameworks, information on the locations (e.g., States) where vulnerability assessments were conducted, lists of individual species and habitats with their respective vulnerability rankings, and a comparison of how vulnerability rankings were determined among studies.

Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-12-01

The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

Assessing social vulnerability to climate change in human communities near public forests and grasslands: a framework for resource managers and planners

Treesearch

A. Paige Fischer; Travis Paveglio; Matthew Carroll; Daniel Murphy; Hannah Brenkert-Smith

2013-01-01

Public land management agencies have incorporated the concept of vulnerability into protocols for assessing and planning for climate change impacts on public forests and grasslands. However, resource managers and planners have little guidance for how to address the social aspects of vulnerability in these assessments and plans. Failure to assess social vulnerability to...

Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serre, D.; Barroca, B.

2009-04-01

Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city Bruno Barroca1, Damien Serre2 1Laboratory of Urban Engineering, Environment and Building (L G U E H) - Université de Marne-la-Vallée - Pôle Ville, 5, Bd Descartes - Bâtiment Lavoisier - 77454 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2 - France 2City of Paris Engineering School, Construction - Environment Department, 15 rue Fénelon, 75010 Paris, France In France, as in Europe and more generally throughout the world, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity over the last ten years, and there are more instances of rivers bursting their banks, aggravating the impact of the flooding of areas supposedly protected by flood defenses. Despite efforts made to well maintain the flood defense assets, we often observe flood defense failures leading to finally increase flood risk in protected area during major flood events. Furthermore, flood forecasting models, although they benefit continuous improvements, remain partly inaccurate due to uncertainties populated all along data calculation processes. These circumstances obliged stakeholders and the scientific communities to manage flood risk by integrating new concepts like stakes management, vulnerability assessments and more recently urban resilience development. Definitively, the goal is to reduce flood risk by managing of course flood defenses and improving flood forecasting models, but also stakes and vulnerability of flooded areas to achieve urban resilience face to flood events. Vulnerability to flood is essentially concentrated in urban areas. Assessing vulnerability of a city is very difficult. Indeed, urban area is a complex system composed by a sum of technical sub-systems as complex as the urban area itself. Assessing city vulnerability consists in talking into account each sub system vulnerability and integrating all direct and indirect impacts generally depending from city shape and city spatial organization. At this time, although some research activities have been undertaken, there are no specific methods and tools to assess flood vulnerability at the scale of the city. Indeed, by studying literature we can list some vulnerability indicators and a few Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. But generally indicators and GIS are not developed specifically at the city scale: often a regional scale is used. Analyzing vulnerability at this scale needs more accurate and formalized indicators and GIS tools. The second limit of existing GIS is temporal: even if vulnerability could be assessed and localized through GIS, such tools cannot assist city managers in their decision to efficiency recover after a severe flood event. Due to scale and temporal limits, methods and tools available to assess urban vulnerability need large improvements. Talking into account all these considerations and limits, our research is focusing on: • vulnerability indicators design; • recovery scenarios design; • GIS for city vulnerability assessment and recovery scenarios. Dealing with vulnerability indicators, the goal is to design a set of indicators of city sub systems. Sub systems are seen like assets of high value and complex and interdependent infrastructure networks (i.e. power supplies, communications, water, transport etc.). The infrastructure networks are critical for the continuity of economic activities as well as for the people's basic living needs. Their availability is also required for fast and effective recovery after flood disasters. The severity of flood damage therefore largely depends on the degree that both high value assets and critical urban infrastructure are affected, either directly or indirectly. To face the challenge of designing indicators, a functional model of the city system (and sub systems) has to be built to analyze the system response to flood solicitation. Then, a coherent and an efficient set of vulnerability of indicators could be built up. With such methods city stakeholders will be informed on how and how much their systems are vulnerable. It is a first level of information that has to be completed to become a real decision making tool. Indeed, we have seen that major floods cause almost always failures in the flood defense system. So potentially the city could face a flood event and managers recovery works. Knowing the vulnerability of the city, direct and indirect impacts, how can managers optimize recovery actions? Our research will focus first on proposing recovery scenarios based on the city system and second on vulnerability indicators to first limit damages during floods and to speed up recovery actions. At last, a GIS will be developed to assist stakeholders to take spatial measures to reduce city system weakness before a flood event and to help them to decide on how to optimize recovery actions after a flood event. Dealing with these two temporal scales will allow obtaining more flood resilient cities.

Free and Open Source Software for land degradation vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imbrenda, Vito; Calamita, Giuseppe; Coluzzi, Rosa; D'Emilio, Mariagrazia; Lanfredi, Maria Teresa; Perrone, Angela; Ragosta, Maria; Simoniello, Tiziana

2013-04-01

Nowadays the role of FOSS software in scientific research is becoming increasingly important. Besides the important issues of reduced costs for licences, legality and security there are many other reasons that make FOSS software attractive. Firstly, making the code opened is a warranty of quality permitting to thousands of developers around the world to check the code and fix bugs rather than rely on vendors claims. FOSS communities are usually enthusiastic about helping other users for solving problems and expand or customize software (flexibility). Most important for this study, the interoperability allows to combine the user-friendly QGIS with the powerful GRASS-GIS and the richness of statistical methods of R in order to process remote sensing data and to perform geo-statistical analysis in one only environment. This study is focused on the land degradation (i.e. the reduction in the capacity of the land to provide ecosystem goods and services and assure its functions) and in particular on the estimation of the vulnerability levels in order to suggest appropriate policy actions to reduce/halt land degradation impacts, using the above mentioned software. The area investigated is the Basilicata Region (Southern Italy) where large natural areas are mixed with anthropized areas. To identify different levels of vulnerability we adopted the Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) model, based on the combination of indicators related to soil, climate, vegetation and anthropic stress. Such indicators were estimated by using the following data-sources: - Basilicata Region Geoportal to assess soil vulnerability; - DESERTNET2 project to evaluate potential vegetation vulnerability and climate vulnerability; - NDVI-MODIS satellite time series (2000-2010) with 250m resolution, available as 16-day composite from the NASA LP DAAC to characterize the dynamic component of vegetation; - Agricultural Census data 2010, Corine Land Cover 2006 and morphological information to assess the vulnerability to anthropic factors mainly connected with agricultural and grazing management. To achieve the final ESAs Index depicting the overall vulnerability to degradation of the investigated area we applied the geometric mean to cross normalized indices related to each examined component. In this context QGIS was used to display data and to perform basic GIS calculations, whereas GRASS was used for map-algebra operations and image processing. Finally R was used for computing statistical analysis (Principal Component Analysis) aimed to determine the relative importance of each adopted indicator. Our results show that GRASS, QGIS and R software are suitable to map land degradation vulnerability and identify highly vulnerable areas in which rehabilitation/recovery interventions are urgent. In addition they allow us to put into evidence the most important drivers of degradation thus supplying basic information for the setting up of intervention strategies. Ultimately, Free Open Source Software deliver a fair chance for geoscientific investigations thanks to their high interoperability and flexibility enabling to preserve the accuracy of the data and to reduce processing time. Moreover, the presence of several communities that steadily support users allows for achieving high quality results, making free open source software a valuable and easy alternative to conventional commercial software.

A global standard for monitoring coastal wetland vulnerability to accelerated sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webb, Edward L.; Friess, Daniel A.; Krauss, Ken W.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Phelps, Jacob

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise threatens coastal salt-marshes and mangrove forests around the world, and a key determinant of coastal wetland vulnerability is whether its surface elevation can keep pace with rising sea level. Globally, a large data gap exists because wetland surface and shallow subsurface processes remain unaccounted for by traditional vulnerability assessments using tide gauges. Moreover, those processes vary substantially across wetlands, so modelling platforms require relevant local data. The low-cost, simple, high-precision rod surface-elevation table–marker horizon (RSET-MH) method fills this critical data gap, can be paired with spatial data sets and modelling and is financially and technically accessible to every country with coastal wetlands. Yet, RSET deployment has been limited to a few regions and purposes. A coordinated expansion of monitoring efforts, including development of regional networks that could support data sharing and collaboration, is crucial to adequately inform coastal climate change adaptation policy at several scales.

Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

2014-12-01

This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

Vulnerability assessments as a political creation: tsunami management in Portugal.

PubMed

Pronk, Maartje; Maat, Harro; Crane, Todd A

2017-10-01

Vulnerability assessments are a cornerstone of contemporary disaster research. This paper shows how research procedures and the presentation of results of vulnerability assessments are politically filtered. Using data from a study of tsunami risk assessment in Portugal, the paper demonstrates that approaches, measurement instruments, and research procedures for evaluating vulnerability are influenced by institutional preferences, lines of communication, or lack thereof, between stakeholder groups, and available technical expertise. The institutional setting and the pattern of stakeholder interactions form a filter, resulting in a particular conceptualisation of vulnerability, affecting its operationalisation via existing methods and technologies and its institutional embedding. The Portuguese case reveals a conceptualisation that is aligned with perceptions prevalent in national government bureaucracies and the exclusion of local stakeholders owing to selected methodologies and assessment procedures. The decisions taken by actors involved in these areas affect how vulnerability is assessed, and ultimately which vulnerability reduction policies will be recommended in the appraisal. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

Social vulnerability assessment: a growing practice in Europe?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapsell, S.; McC arthy, S.

2012-04-01

This paper builds upon work on social vulnerability from the CapHaz-Net consortium, an ongoing research project funded by the European Commission in its 7th Framework Programme. The project focuses on the social dimensions of natural hazards, as well as on regional practices of risk prevention and management, and aims at improving the resilience of European societies to natural hazards, paying particular attention to social capacity building. The topic of social vulnerability is one of seven themes being addressed in the project. There are various rationales for examining the relevance of social vulnerability to natural hazards. Vulnerability assessment has now been accepted as a requirement for the effective development of emergency management capability, and assessment of social vulnerability has been recognised as being integral to understanding the risk to natural hazards. The aim of our research was to examine social vulnerability, how it might be understood in the context of natural hazards in Europe, and how social vulnerability can be addressed to increase social capacity. The work comprised a review of research on social vulnerability to different natural hazards within Europe and included concepts and definitions of social vulnerability (and related concepts), the purpose of vulnerability assessment and who decides who is vulnerable, different approaches to assessing or measuring social vulnerability (such as the use of 'classical' quantitative vulnerability indicators and qualitative community-based approaches, along with the advantages and disadvantages of both), conceptual frameworks for assessing social vulnerability and three case studies of social vulnerability studies within Europe: flash floods in the Italian Alps, fluvial flooding in Germany and heat waves in Spain. The review reveals variable application of social vulnerability analysis across Europe and there are indications why this might be the case. Reasons could range from the scale of country policy and the particular risk management focus to the smaller scale risk management perceptions of the analysis techniques employed being to resource expensive, difficult to interpret or to operationalise. This paper will provide a context with some empirical examples to perhaps explain the growing popularity of concepts such as resilience and capacity building which lie more comfortably with policy makers and risk managers as concepts which focus on the solution rather than identifying a problem by assessing social vulnerability.

GIS-based groundwater vulnerability modelling: A case study of the Witbank, Ermelo and Highveld Coalfields in South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakala, E.; Fourie, F.; Gomo, M.; Coetzee, H.

2018-01-01

In the last 20 years, the popular mineral systems approach has been used successfully for the exploration of various mineral commodities at various scales owing to its scientific soundness, cost effectiveness and simplicity in mapping the critical processes required for the formation of deposits. In the present study this approach was modified for the assessment of groundwater vulnerability. In terms of the modified approach, water drives the pollution migration processes, with various analogies having been derived from the mineral systems approach. The modified approach is illustrated here by the discussion of a case study of acid mine drainage (AMD) pollution in the Witbank, Ermelo and Highveld coalfields of the Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal Provinces in South Africa. Many AMD cases have been reported in these provinces in recent years and are a cause of concern for local municipalities, mining and environmental agencies. In the Witbank, Ermelo and Highveld coalfields, several areas have been mined out while mining has not yet started in others, hence the need to identify groundwater regions prone to AMD pollution in order to avoid further impacts on the groundwater resources. A knowledge-based fuzzy expert system was built using vulnerability factors (energy sources, ligands sources, pollutant sources, transportation pathways and traps) to generate a groundwater vulnerability model of the coalfields. Highly vulnerable areas were identified in Witbank coalfield and the eastern part of the Ermelo coalfield which are characterised by the presence of AMD sources, good subsurface transport coupled with poor AMD pollution trapping properties. The results from the analysis indicate significant correlations between model values and both groundwater sulphate concentrations as well as pH. This shows that the proposed approach can indeed be used as an alternative to traditional methods of groundwater vulnerability assessment. The methodology only considers the AMD pollution attenuation and migration at a regional scale and does not account for local-scale sources of pollution and attenuation. Further research to refine the approach may include the incorporation of groundwater flow direction, rock-pollution reaction time, and temporal datasets for the future prediction of groundwater vulnerability. The approach may be applied to other coalfields to assess its robustness to changing hydrogeological conditions.

Assessing the geomorphological vulnerability of arid beach-dune systems.

PubMed

Peña-Alonso, Carolina; Gallego-Fernández, Juan B; Hernández-Calvento, Luis; Hernández-Cordero, Antonio I; Ariza, Eduard

2018-09-01

In this study, an arid dune vulnerability index (ADVI) is developed using a system of indicators to evaluate the geomorphological vulnerability of beach-dune systems of arid regions. The indicators are comprised of three analytical dimensions (susceptibility, exposure and resilience) and their corresponding sub-indices and variables and were assessed for eleven sites located in four aeolian sedimentary systems of the Canary archipelago (Spain). The selected sites have varying geomorphological characteristics, vegetation types, marine and wind conditions and human pressure degrees, and have seen different trends in their geomorphological evolution since 1960. The eleven sites were separated into three groups according to their different conservation status and different management needs, and the results of the ADVI dimensions and variables were compared and analyzed for these three groups. In general, the results obtained in the analyzed sites reveal that susceptibility and exposure dimensions are related to low-moderate values, while resilience was high. Only one site presented a state of critical vulnerability, due to the loss of its capacity to maintain its geomorphological function in recent decades. Given the lack of knowledge about geomorphological vulnerability processes in foredunes of arid regions, ADVI is the first approximation to geomorphological diagnostic in these environments and can be useful for managers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The concept of 'vulnerability' in research ethics: an in-depth analysis of policies and guidelines.

PubMed

Bracken-Roche, Dearbhail; Bell, Emily; Macdonald, Mary Ellen; Racine, Eric

2017-02-07

The concept of vulnerability has held a central place in research ethics guidance since its introduction in the United States Belmont Report in 1979. It signals mindfulness for researchers and research ethics boards to the possibility that some participants may be at higher risk of harm or wrong. Despite its important intended purpose and widespread use, there is considerable disagreement in the scholarly literature about the meaning and delineation of vulnerability, stemming from a perceived lack of guidance within research ethics standards. The aim of this study was to assess the concept of vulnerability as it is employed in major national and international research ethics policies and guidelines. We conducted an in-depth analysis of 11 (five national and six international) research ethics policies and guidelines, exploring their discussions of the definition, application, normative justification and implications of vulnerability. Few policies and guidelines explicitly defined vulnerability, instead relying on implicit assumptions and the delineation of vulnerable groups and sources of vulnerability. On the whole, we found considerable richness in the content on vulnerability across policies, but note that this relies heavily on the structure imposed on the data through our analysis. Our results underscore a need for policymakers to revisit the guidance on vulnerability in research ethics, and we propose that a process of stakeholder engagement would well-support this effort.

Vulnerability to stress in migratory contexts: a study with Eastern European immigrants residing in Portugal.

PubMed

de Almeida Vieira Monteiro, Ana Paula Teixeira; Serra, Adriano Vaz

2011-08-01

The assessment of individual vulnerability to stress emerges as a predictive factor of a higher risk of developing stress-related disorders. In the last decade, the geography of immigration in Portugal experienced intense transformations in terms of recruitment and patterns of geographic settlement, with an increasing and exponential inflow of new and diversified migratory groups. The immigrant populations coming from Eastern European countries are a recent migratory flow, with linguistic, cultural and socio-demographic specificities which are very different from the general Portuguese population. This makes them a paradigmatic group in potential transcultural studies on mental health issues. The primary aim of the study was to describe the characteristics of vulnerability to stress and determine their impact on the mental health status of Russian-speaking immigrants residing in Portugal. The relationship between vulnerability to stress, sociodemographic variables, mental health status and social support were analyzed, using the SSQ6, GHQ28, 23QVS and a socio-demographic questionnaire. A comparative analysis was carried out, using a control group of 110 Portuguese subjects without previous migratory experiences, matched by sex, age group and academic qualifications. The eastern European immigrants reported high levels of vulnerability to stress assessed by the cut-off point of the 23QVS. Immigrants also reported higher percentage of vulnerability to stress and lower social support levels of social support versus the control group. Several factors inherent to the dynamics of the migratory process were related to the presence of vulnerability to stress. The findings suggest that vulnerability to stress is positively correlated with worse mental health outcomes and negatively correlated with the social support perceived as available--number of supporters and satisfaction with social support.

A new GIS-based tsunami risk evaluation: MeTHuVA (METU tsunami human vulnerability assessment) at Yenikapı, Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cankaya, Zeynep Ceren; Suzen, Mehmet Lutfi; Yalciner, Ahmet Cevdet; Kolat, Cagil; Zaytsev, Andrey; Aytore, Betul

2016-07-01

Istanbul is a mega city with various coastal utilities located on the northern coast of the Sea of Marmara. At Yenikapı, there are critical vulnerable coastal utilities, structures, and active metropolitan life. Fishery ports, commercial ports, small craft harbors, passenger terminals of intercity maritime transportation, waterfront commercial and/or recreational structures with residential/commercial areas and public utility areas are some examples of coastal utilization that are vulnerable to marine disasters. Therefore, the tsunami risk in the Yenikapı region is an important issue for Istanbul. In this study, a new methodology for tsunami vulnerability assessment for areas susceptible to tsunami is proposed, in which the Yenikapı region is chosen as a case study. Available datasets from the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and Turkish Navy are used as inputs for high-resolution GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) evaluation of tsunami risk in Yenikapı. Bathymetry and topography database is used for high-resolution tsunami numerical modeling where the tsunami hazard, in terms of coastal inundation, is deterministically computed using the NAMI DANCE numerical code, considering earthquake worst case scenarios. In order to define the tsunami human vulnerability of the region, two different aspects, vulnerability at location and evacuation resilience maps were created using the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) method of MCDA. A vulnerability at location map is composed of metropolitan use, geology, elevation, and distance from shoreline layers, whereas an evacuation resilience map is formed by slope, distance within flat areas, distance to buildings, and distance to road networks layers. The tsunami risk map is then computed by the proposed new relationship which uses flow depth maps, vulnerability at location maps, and evacuation resilience maps.

Coastal erosion risk assessment using natural and human factors in different scales.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandrakis, George; Kampanis, Nikolaos

2015-04-01

Climate change, including sea-level rise and increasing storms, raise the threats of coastal erosion. Mitigating and adapting to coastal erosion risks in areas of human interest, like urban areas, culture heritage sites, and areas of economic interest, present a major challenge for society. In this context, decision making needs to be based in reliable risk assessment that includes environmental, social and economic factors. By integrating coastal hazard and risk assessments maps into coastal management plans, risks in areas of interest can be reduced. To address this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and socioeconomic importance need to be identified. A holistic risk assessment based in environmental, socioeconomic and economics approach can provide managers information how to mitigate the impact of coastal erosion and plan protection measures. Such an approach needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which interactions can be better assessed when distributed and analysed along the geographical space. In this work, estimations of climate change impact to coastline are based on a combination of environmental and economic data analysed in a GIS database. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The vulnerability assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this econometric modelling, Beach Value is related with economic and environmental attributes of the beach. All calculations are implemented in a GIS database, organised in five levels. In the first level the gathering of raw data is been made. In the second level data are organized in different scales. Third level, concerns the generating of new thematic data for further use. Risk assessment analysis and cost benefit analysis for protection measures is been made in level four. In the fifth level the results are transformed in user friendly form to be used by coastal managers. As case study area for the application of the method is selected Crete Island, while for the small scale the city of Rethymnon, which at the regional vulnerability analysis was found as high vulnerable. In the small scale vulnerability analysis, the sectors of the beach which are most vulnerable were identified, and risk analysis was made based on the revenue losses. Acknowledgments This work was implemented within the framework of the Action «Supporting Postdoctoral Researchers» of the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" (Action's Beneficiary: General Secretariat for Research and Technology), and is co-financed by the European Social Fund (ESF) and the Greek State.

6 CFR 27.210 - Submissions schedule.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... in any subsequent Federal Register notice. (2) Security Vulnerability Assessment. Unless otherwise notified, a covered facility must complete and submit a Security Vulnerability Assessment within 90... Department's approval of the facility's Site Security Plan. (2) Security Vulnerability Assessment. Unless...

Vulnerability assessment and risk perception: the case of the Arieş River Middle Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozunu, Al.; Botezan, C.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment is influenced by a number of factors, including risk perception. This paper investigates the vulnerability of people living in the middle basin of the Aries river region, a former mining area, to natural and technologic hazards. The mining industry lead to significant environmental changes, which combined with the social problems caused by its decline (high unemployment rate, low income and old age) raised the level of the vulnerability in the area. This case study is unique, as it includes an evaluation of risk perception and its influence on the social vulnerability and resilience of local communities to disasters. Key words: vulnerability assessment, natural hazards, social vulnerability, risk perception

The participatory vulnerability scoping diagram - deliberative risk ranking for community water systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howe, Peter D.; Yarnal, Brent; Coletti, Alex; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

Natural hazards and climate change present growing challenges to community water system (CWS) managers, who are increasingly turning to vulnerability assessments to identify, prioritize, and adapt to risks. Effectively assessing CWS vulnerability requires information and participation from various sources, one of which is stakeholders. In this article, we present a deliberative risk-ranking methodology, the participatory vulnerability scoping diagram (P-VSD), which allows rapid assessment and integration of multiple stakeholder perspectives of vulnerability. This technique is based on methods of deliberative risk evaluation and the vulnerability scoping diagram. The goal of the methodology is to engage CWS managers and stakeholders collectively to provide qualitative contextual risk rankings as a first step in a vulnerability assessment. We conduct an initial assessment using a case study of CWS in two U.S. counties, sites with broadly similar exposures but differences in population, land use, and other social sensitivity factors. Results demonstrate that CWS managers and stakeholders in the two case study communities all share the belief that their CWS are vulnerable to hazards but differ in how this vulnerability manifests itself in terms of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of the system.

Index-based groundwater vulnerability mapping models using hydrogeological settings: A critical evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar, Prashant, E-mail: prashantkumar@csio.res.in; Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research—CSIO, Chandigarh 160030; Bansod, Baban K.S.

2015-02-15

Groundwater vulnerability maps are useful for decision making in land use planning and water resource management. This paper reviews the various groundwater vulnerability assessment models developed across the world. Each model has been evaluated in terms of its pros and cons and the environmental conditions of its application. The paper further discusses the validation techniques used for the generated vulnerability maps by various models. Implicit challenges associated with the development of the groundwater vulnerability assessment models have also been identified with scientific considerations to the parameter relations and their selections. - Highlights: • Various index-based groundwater vulnerability assessment models havemore » been discussed. • A comparative analysis of the models and its applicability in different hydrogeological settings has been discussed. • Research problems of underlying vulnerability assessment models are also reported in this review paper.« less

[Spatial patterns of eco-environmental vulnerability in Daqing City].

PubMed

Li, Jing; Zhang, Ping-Yu; Li, He; Su, Fei

2011-12-01

This paper established an index system for the assessment of eco-environmental vulnerability in Daqing City, from the aspects of sensitivity and response capability, and aiming at the major disturbances from crude oil exploitation and production activities. The improved entropy method was adopted to evaluate the weights of the indices, and the spatial patterns of eco-environment vulnerability in the City were analyzed, according to the model functions. In 2009, the more sensitive areas of the eco-environment in the City were mainly concentrated in the intensive regions of crude oil exploitation, processing, and petrochemical industry, and the ecological problems such as land salinization were the secondary causes for this higher sensitivity. The overall response capability of the eco-environment to unfavorable disturbances was relatively high, which reduced the eco-environment vulnerability to some extent. There was a great spatial difference in the eco-environment vulnerability in the City. The vulnerability was comparatively higher in the districts of Honggang, Sartu and Longfeng, with the degree being 0.80, 0.71 and 0.68, but lower in Ranghulu and Datong, with the degree of 0.20 and 0.04, respectively.

Development of structural vulnerability curve associated with high magnitude torrent occurrences in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing-Yuen Chow, Candace; Bründl, Michael; Keiler, Margreth

2017-04-01

In mountain regions, high economic losses have increased significantly in the past decades due to severe hazard processes, in spite of notable investments in hazard management. Assessing the vulnerability of built structures to high magnitude torrent events is a part of consequence analysis, where hazard intensity is related to the degree of loss sustained. While vulnerability curves have been developed for different countries, the presented work contributes new data from Swiss-based case studies that address a known gap associated with the consequences of high magnitude events. Data for this stage of the investigation communicates the degree of loss associated with affected structures and has been provided by local authorities dealing with natural hazards (e.g. Amt für Wald des Kantons Bern (KAWA) and cantonal insurance providers). Information used for the empirical quantification of vulnerability to torrent processes is derived from detailed post-event documentation and the loss database and verified with field visits. Building the initial database supports data sharing and the systematic inclusion of additional case studies as they become available. The collection of this new data is fundamental to the development of a local vulnerability curve based on observed sediment deposition heights, a proxy for describing hazard intensity. The result will then be compared to curves derived from Austrian and Italian datasets.

The spatial distribution of vulnerability to the health impacts of flooding in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

PubMed

Phung, Dung; Rutherford, Shannon; Dwirahmadi, Febi; Chu, Cordia; Do, Cuong Manh; Nguyen, Thuy; Duong, Nam Chi

2016-06-01

Flooding causes significant public health issues. The Mekong Delta has been considered the region to be the most vulnerable to flooding in Vietnam. This study assessed the spatial vulnerability of the health impacts of flooding in the Mekong Delta region, Vietnam. This study applied a vulnerability assessment framework which was computed as the function of three dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The indicators for each dimension were derived from the relevant literature, consultations with experts, and data availability. An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and a principal component analysis (PCA) were used to determine the weight of indicators. Vulnerability indexes (VIs) were then computed for each province. A total of 29 indicators (sensitivity index, 14; adaptive capacity index, 13; and exposure index, 2) were employed to evaluate the vulnerability to the health impacts of flooding at a provincial level. The results of AHP revealed that the highest VIs were found in the Dong Thap and An Giang provinces (VI, 1.948 and 1.574, respectively). VIs were distributed with higher indexes in upstream provinces close to a river than in coastal provinces. PCA generated three components from the 29 indicators, and the VIs computed from the PCA method are in substantial agreement with the AHP method (ICC = 0.71, p < 0.05). The vulnerability to the health impacts of flooding varies from province to province in the Mekong Delta region in Vietnam. Individual plans for health preparedness and adaption to flooding should be developed for each province in the Mekong Delta region.

Vulnerabilities to climate change of Massachusetts animal species of greatest conservation need

USGS Publications Warehouse

Galbraith, Hector; Morelli, Toni L.

2017-01-01

Over the last decade, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts has addressed the potential and actual impacts of climate change on state flora and fauna. The state’s involvement began in 2007 when, led by the Division of Fisheries and Wildlife (DFW) and assisted by Manomet Center for Con-servation Research, it carried out one of the first habitat vulnerability assessments in North America (Manomet, 2010). The new methods and processes that resulted were later applied to vulnerability assessments in North America and elsewhere. In 2011, the state assisted the North-eastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (NEAFWA) in organizing and leading a pio-neering three-year, thirteen-state research effort to evaluate the vulnerabilities of fish and wild-life habitats to climate change in the northeast, from Maine south to West Virginia (NEAFWA, 2012). This focus on climate change vulnerabilities led to three important early realizations: (1) simply categorizing and scoring vulnerabilities might not lead to better conservation outcomes. It was vital to also understand why some resources were more or less vulnerable to climate change in order to identify potential intervention points on which conservation actions and strategies could be based. (2) simply producing research results was not enough; these results had to be cast as specific conservation actions. Moreover (3), these actions needed to be communicated in a useful form to conservation “actors”, such as state agencies, land trusts, land managers, etc. These real-izations led to the next step on the Commonwealth’s journey to effective conservation in an age of climate change - the Massachusetts Wildlife Climate Action Tool (CAT).

Participatory Approach to Long-Term Socio-Economic Scenarios as Building Block of a Local Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool - The Case Study Lienz (East-Tyrol)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Ina; Eder, Brigitte; Hama, Michiko; Leitner, Markus

2016-04-01

Risks associated with climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- or hazard-specific and rarely in a systemic, dynamic and scenario-based manner. In addition, socio-economic trends are often neglected in local vulnerability and risk assessments although they represent potential key determinants of risk and vulnerability. The project ARISE (Adaptation and Decision Support via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) aims at filling this gap by applying a participatory approach to socio-economic scenario building as building block of a local vulnerability assessment and risk management tool. Overall, ARISE aims at developing a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management as a key adaptation tool for the local level using Lienz in the East-Tyrol as a test-site City. One central building block is participatory socio-economic scenario building that - together with regionalized climate change scenarios - form a centrepiece in the process-oriented assessment of climate change risks and vulnerability. Major vulnerabilities and risks may stem from the economic performance, the socio-economic or socio-demographic developments or changes in asset exposition and not from climate change impacts themselves. The IPCC 5th assessment report underlines this and states that for most economic sectors, the impact of climate change may be small relative to the impacts of other driving forces such as changes in population growth, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance and many other factors in the socio-economy (Arent et al., 2014). The paper presents the methodology, process and results with respect to the building of long-term local socio-economic scenarios for the City of Lienz and the surrounding countryside. Scenarios were developed in a participatory approach using a scenario workshop that involved major stakeholders from the region. Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized as an important element in management and decision-making as problems in today's world are complex and require knowledge from many different domains and disciplines. Participation is also said to be a process of collective learning that changes the way people think and act which is a relevant point in forming appropriate region-specific climate adaptation strategies. The scenarios are based on an analysis of data on recent states and trends in major local sector developments concerning absolute and relative employment and value creation as well as on distinct socio-demographic developments in the region. Categories discussed in the scenario workshop cover inter alia institutions and governance, demographics, production and demand, markets, value-chains and trade, scientific and technological innovations, education and health. The derived stakeholder-based socio-economic scenarios were, in a second step, matched with the Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) in order to frame the locally produced scenarios with global narratives. Both strains were, in a third step, combined and backed-up by scientific literature in order to build the local socio-economic scenarios that served as background information in the analysis of risks, vulnerability and appropriate adaptation measures in the case-study region.

A framework for modeling scenario-based barrier island storm impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mickey, Rangley; Long, Joseph W.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.

2018-01-01

Methods for investigating the vulnerability of existing or proposed coastal features to storm impacts often rely on simplified parametric models or one-dimensional process-based modeling studies that focus on changes to a profile across a dune or barrier island. These simple studies tend to neglect the impacts to curvilinear or alongshore varying island planforms, influence of non-uniform nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport, irregular morphology of the offshore bathymetry, and impacts from low magnitude wave events (e.g. cold fronts). Presented here is a framework for simulating regionally specific, low and high magnitude scenario-based storm impacts to assess the alongshore variable vulnerabilities of a coastal feature. Storm scenarios based on historic hydrodynamic conditions were derived and simulated using the process-based morphologic evolution model XBeach. Model results show that the scenarios predicted similar patterns of erosion and overwash when compared to observed qualitative morphologic changes from recent storm events that were not included in the dataset used to build the scenarios. The framework model simulations were capable of predicting specific areas of vulnerability in the existing feature and the results illustrate how this storm vulnerability simulation framework could be used as a tool to help inform the decision-making process for scientists, engineers, and stakeholders involved in coastal zone management or restoration projects.

Challenges and Opportunities for Integrating Social Science Perspectives into Climate and Global Change Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, E. K.; Li, J.; Zycherman, A.

2017-12-01

Integration of social science into climate and global change assessments is fundamental for improving understanding of the drivers, impacts and vulnerability of climate change, and the social, cultural and behavioral challenges related to climate change responses. This requires disciplinary and interdisciplinary knowledge as well as integrational and translational tools for linking this knowledge with the natural and physical sciences. The USGCRP's Social Science Coordinating Committee (SSCC) is tasked with this challenge and is working to integrate relevant social, economic and behavioral knowledge into processes like sustained assessments. This presentation will discuss outcomes from a recent SSCC workshop, "Social Science Perspectives on Climate Change" and their applications to sustained assessments. The workshop brought academic social scientists from four disciplines - anthropology, sociology, geography and archaeology - together with federal scientists and program managers to discuss three major research areas relevant to the USGCRP and climate assessments: (1) innovative tools, methods, and analyses to clarify the interactions of human and natural systems under climate change, (2) understanding of factors contributing to differences in social vulnerability between and within communities under climate change, and (3) social science perspectives on drivers of global climate change. These disciplines, collectively, emphasize the need to consider socio-cultural, political, economic, geographic, and historic factors, and their dynamic interactions, to understand climate change drivers, social vulnerability, and mitigation and adaptation responses. They also highlight the importance of mixed quantitative and qualitative methods to explain impacts, vulnerability, and responses at different time and spatial scales. This presentation will focus on major contributions of the social sciences to climate and global change research. We will discuss future directions for sustained assessments that integrate and reflect the social science understanding of the complex relationships between social and natural worlds in a changing climate, and factors that impact effective mitigation and adaptation strategies that address risks and vulnerabilities of climate change.

Responding to climate change in New York State: the ClimAID integrated assessment for effective climate change adaptation in New York State. Final report.

PubMed

2011-12-01

Climate change is already beginning to affect New York State, and these impacts are projected to grow. At the same time, the state has the ability to develop adaptation strategies to prepare for and respond to climate risks now and in the future. The ClimAID assessment provides information on climate change impacts and adaptation for eight sectors in New York State: water resources, coastal zones, ecosystems, agriculture, energy, transportation,telecommunications, and public health. Observed climate trends and future climate projections were developed for seven regions across the state. Within each of the sectors, climate risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation strategies are identified. Integrating themes across all of the sectors are equity and environmental justice and economics.Case studies are used to examine specific vulnerabilities and potential adaptation strategies in each of the eight sectors. These case studies also illustrate the linkages among climate vulnerabilities, risks, and adaptation, and demonstrate specific monitoring needs. Stakeholder participation was critical to the ClimAID assessment process to ensure relevance to decision makers across the state.

A Methodology for Assessing the Seismic Vulnerability of Highway Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cirianni, Francis; Leonardi, Giovanni; Scopelliti, Francesco

2008-07-08

Modern society is totally dependent on a complex and articulated infrastructure network of vital importance for the existence of the urban settlements scattered on the territory. On these infrastructure systems, usually indicated with the term lifelines, are entrusted numerous services and indispensable functions of the normal urban and human activity.The systems of the lifelines represent an essential element in all the urbanised areas which are subject to seismic risk. It is important that, in these zones, they are planned according to opportune criteria based on two fundamental assumptions: a) determination of the best territorial localization, avoiding, within limits, the placesmore » of higher dangerousness; b) application of constructive technologies finalized to the reduction of the vulnerability.Therefore it is indispensable that in any modern process of seismic risk assessment the study of the networks is taken in the rightful consideration, to be integrated with the traditional analyses of the buildings.The present paper moves in this direction, dedicating particular attention to one kind of lifeline: the highway system, proposing a methodology of analysis finalized to the assessment of the seismic vulnerability of the system.« less

6 CFR 27.225 - Site security plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... meet the following standards: (1) Address each vulnerability identified in the facility's Security Vulnerability Assessment, and identify and describe the security measures to address each such vulnerability; (2... updates, revises or otherwise alters its Security Vulnerability Assessment pursuant to § 27.215(d), the...

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

A modified SINTACS method for groundwater vulnerability and pollution risk assessment in highly anthropized regions based on NO3- and SO42- concentrations.

PubMed

Busico, Gianluigi; Kazakis, Nerantzis; Colombani, Nicolò; Mastrocicco, Micòl; Voudouris, Konstantinos; Tedesco, Dario

2017-12-31

Groundwater vulnerability and risk assessment are worldwide tools in supporting groundwater protection and land planning. In this study, we used three of these different methodologies applied to the Campanian Plain located in southern Italy: SINTACS, AVI and LOS. However, their capability to describe the observed chemical pollution of the area has resulted quite poor. For such a reason, a modified SINTACS method has been then implemented in the area in order to get a more reliable view of groundwater vulnerability. NO 3 - and SO 4 2- from more than 400 monitoring wells were used for specific vulnerability assessment. Land use was chosen as key parameter to infer the risk of groundwater pollution in our area. The new methodology seems to show a higher correlation with observed NO 3 - concentrations and a more reliable identification of aquifer's pollution hot spots. The main sources of NO 3 - were found in sub-urban areas, where vulnerability and risk are higher than in other areas. Otherwise due to reducing conditions triggered by the presence of elevated sedimentary organic matter and peat, concentrations below agricultural areas were lower than in sub-urban areas. The SO 4 2- specific vulnerability map showed a positive correlation with observed concentrations, due to geogenic and anthropogenic SO 4 2- sources present in the area. The combination of both NO 3 - and SO 4 2- derived risk maps becomes essential to improve the conceptual model of aquifer pollution in this severely anthropized area. The application of this new and original approach shed light on the strengths and weaknesses of each of the described previous methods and clearly showed how anthropogenic activities have to be taken into account in the assessment process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments.

PubMed

Rempel, Robert S; Hornseth, Megan L

2017-01-01

Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.

Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species. PMID:28225817

An Evaluation of Methods for Assessing Vulnerability of Army Installations toImpacts of Climate Change on Listed and At-Risk Species

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-07-01

ER D C/ CE RL T R- 17 -2 5 Army Environmental Quality Technology An Evaluation of Methods for Assessing Vulnerability of Army...Evaluation of Methods for Assessing Vulnerability of Army Installations to Impacts of Climate Change on Listed and At-Risk Species Matthew G. Hohmann...their suitability for informing BRAC-related evaluations. Three recently developed methods for assessing the vulnerability of Army installations to

An Integrated Approach for Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Düzgün, H. S.; Yücemen, M. S.; Kalaycioglu, H. S.

2009-04-01

The earthquake risk for an urban area has increased over the years due to the increasing complexities in urban environments. The main reasons are the location of major cities in hazard prone areas, growth in urbanization and population and rising wealth measures. In recent years physical examples of these factors are observed through the growing costs of major disasters in urban areas which have stimulated a demand for in-depth evaluation of possible strategies to manage the large scale damaging effects of earthquakes. Understanding and formulation of urban earthquake risk requires consideration of a wide range of risk aspects, which can be handled by developing an integrated approach. In such an integrated approach, an interdisciplinary view should be incorporated into the risk assessment. Risk assessment for an urban area requires prediction of vulnerabilities related to elements at risk in the urban area and integration of individual vulnerability assessments. However, due to complex nature of an urban environment, estimating vulnerabilities and integrating them necessities development of integrated approaches in which vulnerabilities of social, economical, structural (building stock and infrastructure), cultural and historical heritage are estimated for a given urban area over a given time period. In this study an integrated urban earthquake vulnerability assessment framework, which considers vulnerability of urban environment in a holistic manner and performs the vulnerability assessment for the smallest administrative unit, namely at neighborhood scale, is proposed. The main motivation behind this approach is the inability to implement existing vulnerability assessment methodologies for countries like Turkey, where the required data are usually missing or inadequate and decision makers seek for prioritization of their limited resources in risk reduction in the administrative districts from which they are responsible. The methodology integrates socio-economical, structural, coastal, ground condition, organizational vulnerabilities, as well as accessibility to critical services within the framework. The proposed framework has the following eight components: Seismic hazard analysis, soil response analysis, tsunami inundation analysis, structural vulnerability analysis, socio-economic vulnerability analysis, accessibility to critical services, GIS-based integrated vulnerability assessment, and visualization of vulnerabilities in 3D virtual city model The integrated model for various vulnerabilities obtained for the urban area is developed in GIS environment by using individual vulnerability assessments for considered elements at risk and serve for establishing the backbone of the spatial decision support system. The stages followed in the model are: Determination of a common mapping unit for each aspect of urban earthquake vulnerability, formation of a geo-database for the vulnerabilities, evaluation of urban vulnerability based on multi attribute utility theory with various weighting algorithms, mapping of the evaluated integrated earthquake risk in geographic information systems (GIS) in the neighborhood scale. The framework is also applicable to larger geographical mapping scales, for example, the building scale. When illustrating the results in building scale, 3-D visualizations with remote sensing data is used so that decision-makers can easily interpret the outputs. The proposed vulnerability assessment framework is flexible and can easily be applied to urban environments at various geographical scales with different mapping units. The obtained total vulnerability maps for the urban area provide a baseline for the development of risk reduction strategies for the decision makers. Moreover, as several aspects of elements at risk for an urban area is considered through vulnerability analyses, effect on changes in vulnerability conditions on the total can easily be determined. The developed approach also enables decision makers to monitor temporal and spatial changes in the urban environment due to implementation of risk reduction strategies.

Flood hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment for human life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, T.; Chang, T.; Lai, J.; Hsieh, M.; Tan, Y.; Lin, Y.

2011-12-01

Flood risk assessment is an important issue for the countries suffering tropical cyclones and monsoon. Taiwan is located in the hot zone of typhoon tracks in the Western Pacific. There are three to five typhoons landing Taiwan every year. Typhoons and heavy rainfalls often cause inundation disaster rising with the increase of population and the development of social economy. The purpose of this study is to carry out the flood hazard, vulnerability and risk in term of human life. Based on the concept that flood risk is composed by flood hazard and vulnerability, a inundation simulation is performed to evaluate the factors of flood hazard for human life according to base flood (100-year return period). The flood depth, velocity and rising ratio are the three factors of flood hazards. Furthermore, the factors of flood vulnerability are identified in terms of human life that are classified into two main factors, residents and environment. The sub factors related to residents are the density of population and the density of vulnerable people including elders, youngers and disabled persons. The sub factors related to environment include the the number of building floors, the locations of buildings, the and distance to rescue center. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is adopted to determine the weights of these factors. The risk matrix is applied to show the risk from low to high based on the evaluation of flood hazards and vulnerabilities. The Tseng-Wen River watershed is selected as the case study because a serious flood was induced by Typhoon Morakot in 2009, which produced a record-breaking rainfall of 2.361mm in 48 hours in the last 50 years. The results of assessing the flood hazard, vulnerability and risk in term of human life could improve the emergency operation for flood disaster to prepare enough relief goods and materials during typhoon landing.

Assessing social vulnerability in African urban context. The challenge to cope with climate change induced hazards by communities and households

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabisch, Sigrun; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie

2013-04-01

Social vulnerability assessment remains central in discourses on global climatic change and takes a more pertinent meaning considering that natural disasters in African countries continue to deeply affect human settlements and destroys human livelihoods. In recent years, in particular large territories and growing cities have experienced severe weather events. Among them are river and flash floods, affecting the social and economic assets of local populations. The impact of the damage related to floods is not only perceptible during seasonal events but also during unexpected larger disasters which place a particular burden on local population and institutions to adapt effectively to increasing climatic pressures. Important features for social vulnerability assessment are the increasing severity of the physical damages, the shortcoming of social and technical infrastructure, the complexity of land management/market, the limited capacity of local institutions and last but not least the restricted capacities of local population to resist these events. Understanding vulnerability implies highlighting and interlinking relevant indicators and/or perceptions encompassed in four main dimensions: social, institutional, physical and attitudinal vulnerability. Case studies in Dar es Salaam, Ouagadougou and Addis Ababa were carried out to obtain insights into the context-related conditions, behavior routines and survival networks in urban areas in west and east Africa. Using a combination of tools (e.g. focus group discussions, transect walks, interviews) we investigated in close cooperation with African partners how households and communities are being prepared to cope with, as well as to recover from floods. A comprehensive process of dealing with floods can be described based on sequential attributes concerning i) Anticipation before a flood occurs, ii) Resistance and coping activities during a flood event and, iii) Recovery and reconstruction afterwards. A participatory approach at household level provides detailed knowledge about the preparedness, the susceptibility and the coping capacities of identified community including its leaders and members. Assessing and ranking the weaknesses and limitations help strengthen awareness and initiate measures for improving coping capacities to social vulnerability in case of flooding. Examples of social vulnerability and the spectrum of coping activities are demonstrated through to use of empirical research results.

Building a Model Program for Substance-Exposed Newborns and Their Families: From Needs Assessment to Intervention, Evaluation, and Consultation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spielman, Eda; Herriott, Anna; Paris, Ruth; Sommer, Amy R.

2015-01-01

Despite growing concern about substance misuse in pregnancy and infants born substance-exposed, few programs have been developed that address the complex needs of this vulnerable population. This article describes the process of developing Project NESST® (Newborns Exposed to Substances: Support and Therapy), from needs assessment to program…

Assessment of the vulnerability and the resilience of the population at risk of multi-hazard: a support to geo-risk management in Central Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michellier, Caroline; Kervyn, François; Tréfon, Théodore; Wolff, Eléonore

2013-04-01

GeoRisCA is a project which aims at studying the geo-risk in the Kivu region (DRC, Rwanda, Burundi), in order to support risk management. The approach developed in GeoRisCA combines methodologies from various disciplines, which will allow the analyses of seismic, volcanic and mass-movement hazards and the vulnerability assessment of the threatened elements. Vulnerability is a complex concept which is commonly defined as the susceptibility of the population, the infrastructures and the natural ecosystems to suffer from damages if a hazard occurs. The densely populated area extended from the North Kivu province in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to North Burundi and East Rwanda is vulnerable to several geohazards, such as landslides triggered by geodynamical processes (climate, seismicity, volcanism) and possibly worsen by anthropic actions. Located in the East African rift valley, the region is also characterized by a strong seismicity, with increasing people and infrastructure exposed. In addition, east DRC hosts the two most active African volcanoes: Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira. Their activity can have serious impacts, as in 2002 when Nyiragongo directly endangers the ~800.000 inhabitants of Goma city, located ~15 km to the south. Linked to passive volcanic degassing, SO2 and CO2 discharge may also increase the population vulnerability(morbidity, mortality). Focusing specifically on this region, the vulnerability assessment methodology developed in GeoRisCA takes into account "exposure to perturbations" and "adaptive capacity or resilience" of the vulnerable systems. On one hand, the exposure is identified as the potential degree of loss of a given element or set of elements at risk; i.e., the susceptibility of people, infrastructures and buildings with respect to a hazard (social vulnerability). It focuses mainly on land use, and on demographic and socio-economic factors that increase or attenuate the impacts of hazards events on local populations. On the other hand, the resilience of the individual, the household, the community, is its adaptive capacity to absorb disturbance and reorganize into a fully functioning system by anticipation, response, adaptation and recovery. A key contribution of GeoRisCA project is to assess the vulnerability to different geohazards by integrating geographic and time variability. This methodology takes into account the specificities highlighted at the regional and the local scale (urban sites). And it also considers that the vulnerability evolves with time, e.g. due to improved education, increased income, denser social networks and evolution of coping mechanisms. Using the above described methodology, one of the main objective of GeoRisCA is to developed vulnerability maps that, once associated with geohazards data, will provide decision making tools for existing preparedness and mitigation institutions.

[Research advances in vulnerability assessment of natural ecosystem response to climate change].

PubMed

Zhao, Hui-xia; Wu, Shao-hong; Jiang, Lu-guang

2007-02-01

Climate change with global warming as the sign has been caught great attention by the governments, international organizations, and scientists in the world. Human society and natural ecosystem are both exposed to climate change, and more and more people are waked up by its increasing harm. Vulnerability analysis and assessment are the key and basis for adapting and mitigating climate change, being the highlight in the research fields of climate change and ecology in recent years. The vulnerability assessment of climate change is being carried out in various research fields and on different scales, and much progress has been made. This paper introduced the concept of vulnerability, and summarized the research progress in vulnerability assessment of climate change, with the focus on the frame and methodology of vulnerability assessment of natural ecosystem response to climate change. The existed problems and future prospects in this research area were also discussed.

Tsunami vulnerability assessment in the western coastal belt in Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranagalage, M. M.

2017-12-01

26th December 2004 tsunami disaster has caused massive loss of life, damage to coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activities in the coastal belt of Sri Lanka. Tsunami vulnerability assessment is a requirement for disaster risk and vulnerability reduction. It plays a major role in identifying the extent and level of vulnerabilities to disasters within the communities. There is a need for a clearer understanding of the disaster risk patterns and factors contributing to it in different parts of the coastal belt. The main objective of this study is to investigate tsunami vulnerability assessment of Moratuwa Municipal council area in Sri Lanka. We have selected Moratuwa area due to considering urbanization pattern and Tsunami hazards of the country. Different data sets such as one-meter resolution LiDAR data, orthophoto, population, housing data and road layer were employed in this study. We employed tsunami vulnerability model for 1796 housing units located there, for a tsunami scenario with a maximum run-up 8 meters. 86% of the total land area affected by the tsunami in 8 meters scenarios. Additionally, building population has been used to estimate population in different vulnerability levels. The result shows that 32% of the buildings have extremely critical vulnerability level, 46% have critical vulnerability level, 22% have high vulnerability level, and 1% have a moderate vulnerability. According to the population estimation model results, 18% reside building with extremely critical vulnerability, 43% with critical vulnerability, 36% with high vulnerability and 3% belong to moderate vulnerability level. The results of the study provide a clear picture of tsunami vulnerability. Outcomes of this analysis can use as a valuable tool for urban planners to assess the risk and extent of disaster risk reduction which could be achieved via suitable mitigation measures to manage the coastal belt in Sri Lanka.

A systematic review of dynamics in climate risk and vulnerability assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurgilevich, Alexandra; Räsänen, Aleksi; Groundstroem, Fanny; Juhola, Sirkku

2017-01-01

Understanding climate risk is crucial for effective adaptation action, and a number of assessment methodologies have emerged. We argue that the dynamics of the individual components in climate risk and vulnerability assessments has received little attention. In order to highlight this, we systematically reviewed 42 sub-national climate risk and vulnerability assessments. We analysed the assessments using an analytical framework with which we evaluated (1) the conceptual approaches to vulnerability and exposure used, (2) if current or future risks were assessed, and (3) if and how changes over time (i.e. dynamics) were considered. Of the reviewed assessments, over half addressed future risks or vulnerability; and of these future-oriented studies, less than 1/3 considered both vulnerability and exposure dynamics. While the number of studies that include dynamics is growing, and while all studies included socio-economic aspects, often only biophysical dynamics was taken into account. We discuss the challenges of assessing socio-economic and spatial dynamics, particularly the poor availability of data and methods. We suggest that future-oriented studies assessing risk dynamics would benefit from larger stakeholder involvement, discussion of the assessment purpose, the use of multiple methods, inclusion of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses and pathway approaches.

Development of a security vulnerability assessment process for the RAMCAP chemical sector.

PubMed

Moore, David A; Fuller, Brad; Hazzan, Michael; Jones, J William

2007-04-11

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Directorate of Information Analysis & Infrastructure Protection (IAIP), Protective Services Division (PSD), contracted the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Innovative Technologies Institute, LLC (ASME ITI, LLC) to develop guidance on Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP). AcuTech Consulting Group (AcuTech) has been contracted by ASME ITI, LLC, to provide assistance by facilitating the development of sector-specific guidance on vulnerability analysis and management for critical asset protection for the chemical manufacturing, petroleum refining, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sectors. This activity involves two key tasks for these three sectors: Development of a screening to supplement DHS understanding of the assets that are important to protect against terrorist attack and to prioritize the activities. Development of a standard security vulnerability analysis (SVA) framework for the analysis of consequences, vulnerabilities, and threats. This project involves the cooperative effort of numerous leading industrial companies, industry trade associations, professional societies, and security and safety consultants representative of those sectors. Since RAMCAP is a voluntary program for ongoing risk management for homeland security, sector coordinating councils are being asked to assist in communicating the goals of the program and in encouraging participation. The RAMCAP project will have a profound and positive impact on all sectors as it is fully developed, rolled-out and implemented. It will help define the facilities and operations of national and regional interest for the threat of terrorism, define standardized methods for analyzing consequences, vulnerabilities, and threats, and describe best security practices of the industry. This paper will describe the results of the security vulnerability analysis process that was developed and field tested for the chemical manufacturing sector. This method was developed through the cooperation of the many organizations and the individuals involved from the chemical sector RAMCAP development activities. The RAMCAP SVA method is intended to provide a common basis for making vulnerability assessments and risk-based decisions for homeland security. Mr. Moore serves as the coordinator for the chemical manufacturing, petroleum refining, and LNG sectors for the RAMCAP project and Dr. Jones is the chief technology officer for ASME-ITI, LLC for RAMCAP.

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability in the coastal region of Oman using DRASTIC index method in GIS environment.

PubMed

Jamrah, Ahmad; Al-Futaisi, Ahmed; Rajmohan, Natarajan; Al-Yaroubi, Saif

2008-12-01

A study was carried out to develop a vulnerability map for Barka region in the North Batina of Oman using DRASTIC vulnerability index method in GIS environment. DRASTIC layers were created using data from published reports and the seven DRASTIC layers were processed by the ArcGIS geographic information system. Finally, DRASTIC maps were created for 1995 and 2004 to understand the long-term changes in the vulnerability index. DRASTIC vulnerability maps were evaluated using groundwater quality data such as chemical and biological parameters. DRASTIC vulnerability maps of 1995 and 2004 indicate that the northern part of Barka is more vulnerable to pollution than southern part and the central part of Barka also shows high relative vulnerability which is mostly related to the high conductivity values. Moreover, the changes in water level due to high abstraction rate of groundwater reflect in the vulnerability maps and low vulnerability area is increased in the southern part during 2004 compared to 1995. Moreover, regional distribution maps of nitrate, chloride and total and fecal coliforms are well correlated with DRASTIC vulnerability maps. In contrast to this, even though DRASTIC method predicted the central part of the study region is highly vulnerable, both chemical and biological parameters show lower concentrations in this region compared to coastal belt, which is mainly due to agricultural and urban development. In Barka, urban development and agricultural activities are very high in coastal region compared to southern and central part of the study area. Hence, this study concluded that DRASTIC method is also applicable in coastal region having ubiquitous contamination sources.

Population vulnerability to storm surge flooding in coastal Virginia, USA.

PubMed

Liu, Hua; Behr, Joshua G; Diaz, Rafael

2016-07-01

This study aims to assess the vulnerability of populations to storm surge flooding in 12 coastal localities of Virginia, USA. Population vulnerability is assessed by way of 3 physical factors (elevation, slope, and storm surge category), 3 built-up components (road availability, access to hospitals, and access to shelters), and 3 household conditions (storm preparedness, financial constraints to recovering from severe weather events, and health fragility). Fuzzy analysis is used to generate maps illustrating variation in several types of population vulnerability across the region. When considering physical factors and household conditions, the most vulnerable neighborhoods to sea level rise and storm surge flooding are largely found in urban areas. However, when considering access to critical infrastructure, we find rural residents to be more vulnerable than nonrural residents. These detailed assessments can inform both local and state governments in catastrophic planning. In addition, the methodology may be generalized to assess vulnerability in other coastal corridors and communities. The originality is highlighted by evaluating socioeconomic conditions at refined scale, incorporating a broader range of human perceptions and predispositions, and employing a geoinformatics approach combining physical, built-up, and socioeconomic conditions for population vulnerability assessment. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:500-509. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

Systemic vulnerabilities to suicide among veterans from the Iraq and Afghanistan Conflicts: review of case reports from a National Veterans Affairs Database.

PubMed

Mills, Peter D; Huber, Samuel J; Vince Watts, Bradley; Bagian, James P

2011-02-01

While suicide among recently returned veterans is of great concern, it is a relatively rare occurrence within individual hospitals and clinics. Root cause analysis (RCA) generates a detailed case report that can be used to identify system-based vulnerabilities following an adverse event. Review of a national database of RCA reports may identify common vulnerabilities and assist in the development of more robust prevention strategies. Our objective was to identify and compare common themes among reports of suicide among veterans of Operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom (OIF/OEF) in the Veterans Affairs system. Common themes among root causes of suicide as identified in RCA reports were collected and compared as the primary outcome--systematic vulnerabilities. Actions recommended within the reports were coded as the secondary outcome--prevention strategies. Fifty-one RCA reports of OIF/OEF suicides were identified by our search. Coding generated 16 common categories among 132 root causes, and 13 categories among 108 recommended actions. Assessment of suicidal risk, coordination of care, timely access to care, and communication among providers were the most common root causes. Actions identified by RCA teams to reduce suicide included improving referral processes, staff education in suicide assessment, and follow-up with suicidal veterans. Review of multiple RCA reports can identify organizational vulnerabilities detected at the local level that may be applicable system wide. Attention to improving suicide assessment, coordination of care, and timely access may have the largest impact on reducing suicide among OIF/OEF veterans. © 2011 The American Association of Suicidology.

Barrier-island and estuarine-wetland physical-change assessment after Hurricane Sandy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Smith, Kathryn E.L.; Passeri, Davina L.; Smith, Christopher G.; Bernier, Julie C.

2018-04-03

IntroductionThe Nation’s eastern coast is fringed by beaches, dunes, barrier islands, wetlands, and bluffs. These natural coastal barriers provide critical benefits and services, and can mitigate the impact of storms, erosion, and sea-level rise on our coastal communities. Waves and storm surge resulting from Hurricane Sandy, which made landfall along the New Jersey coast on October 29, 2012, impacted the U.S. coastline from North Carolina to Massachusetts, including Assateague Island, Maryland and Virginia, and the Delmarva coastal system. The storm impacts included changes in topography, coastal morphology, geology, hydrology, environmental quality, and ecosystems.In the immediate aftermath of the storm, light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys from North Carolina to New York documented storm impacts to coastal barriers, providing a baseline to assess vulnerability of the reconfigured coast. The focus of much of the existing coastal change assessment is along the ocean-facing coastline; however, much of the coastline affected by Hurricane Sandy includes the estuarine-facing coastlines of barrier-island systems. Specifically, the wetland and back-barrier shorelines experienced substantial change as a result of wave action and storm surge that occurred during Hurricane Sandy (see also USGS photograph, http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/sandy/photo-comparisons/virginia.php). Assessing physical shoreline and wetland change (land loss as well as land gains) can help to determine the resiliency of wetland systems that protect adjacent habitat, shorelines, and communities.To address storm impacts to wetlands, a vulnerability assessment should describe both long-term (for example, several decades) and short-term (for example, Sandy’s landfall) extent and character of the interior wetlands and the back-barrier-shoreline changes. The objective of this report is to describe several new wetland vulnerability assessments based on the detailed physical changes estimated from observations. The scope includes understanding changes caused by both short- and long-term processes using both remotely sensed and in situ observations to characterize changes to the wetland in terms of accretion/expansion and erosion/contraction. Accretion may be due to net vertical and (or) horizontal deposition, including estuarine-shoreline change due to overwash. Wetland erosion may be due to elevated waves and water levels in the estuary itself. We included additional information based on wave runup and storm-surge elevations based on models and elevation data. We then developed a predictive assessment for wetland vulnerability that describes the likelihood of changes of the estuarine shoreline and the landward extent of sand overwash driven by processes occurring on the ocean-facing shoreline. This assessment is intended to be linked to the beach and dune vulnerability assessments that have been developed previously.

The Role of Reliability, Vulnerability and Resilience in the Management of Water Quality Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lence, B. J.; Maier, H. R.

2001-05-01

The risk based performance indicators reliability, vulnerability and resilience provide measures of the frequency, magnitude and duration of the failure of water resources systems, respectively. They have been applied primarily to water supply problems, including the assessment of the performance of reservoirs and water distribution systems. Applications to water quality case studies have been limited, although the need to consider the length and magnitude of violations of a particular water quality standard has been recognized for some time. In this research, the role of reliability, vulnerability and resilience in water quality management applications is investigated by examining their significance as performance measures for water quality systems and assessing their potential for assisting in decision making processes. The importance of each performance indicator is discussed and a framework for classifying such systems, based on the relative significance of each of these indicators, is introduced and illustrated qualitatively with various case studies. Quantitative examples drawn from both lake and river water quality modeling exercises are then provided.

Protecting and respecting the vulnerable: existing regulations or further protections?

PubMed

Solomon, Stephanie R

2013-02-01

Scholars and policymakers continue to struggle over the meaning of the word "vulnerable" in the context of research ethics. One major reason for the stymied discussions regarding vulnerable populations is that there is no clear distinction between accounts of research vulnerabilities that exist for certain populations and discussions of research vulnerabilities that require special regulations in the context of research ethics policies. I suggest an analytic process by which to ascertain whether particular vulnerable populations should be contenders for additional regulatory protections. I apply this process to two vulnerable populations: the cognitively vulnerable and the economically vulnerable. I conclude that a subset of the cognitively vulnerable require extra protections while the economically vulnerable should be protected by implementing existing regulations more appropriately and rigorously. Unless or until the informed consent process is more adequately implemented and the distributive justice requirement of the Belmont Report is emphasized and operationalized, the economically disadvantaged will remain particularly vulnerable to the harm of exploitation in research.

Beyond the Continent: Creating an Independent Scientific Assessment Process for the Hawai`i and U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grecni, Z. N.; Keener, V. W.

2017-12-01

An external evaluation found that the inclusion of users of climate information and diverse regional experts in developing the 2012 Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment was a key factor in the report's perceived credibility and usefulness (Moser 2013). The 2012 assessment is seen as a foundational summary for Hawai`i and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands and is still used in vulnerability assessments and to support decisions by public- and private-sector actors. Recently, lessons learned from the 2012 assessment process were applied in engaging technical experts and potential future users in developing a chapter for the U.S. National Climate Assessment, as a regional update that builds on previous assessment activities. In the absence of downscaled climate projection scenarios and products available to the contiguous U.S., the Pacific Islands chapter continued to draw on projections from regional climate models and extensive user engagement. Through surveys, webinars, technical sectoral workshops, and peer review networks, the regional author team received input from a range of stakeholders. In particular, engagement aimed to identify key risks in sectors of importance to the Hawai`i and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands region and cases in which stakeholder groups are already implementing measures toward resilience and adaptation. Data collection began during the chapter development process and will continue at the release of the 4th National Climate Assessment in 2018, with the aim of evaluating how stakeholder engagement affects the assessment's usefulness in assisting island communities to understand risks and vulnerabilities and review potential adaptation strategies.

Volcanic risk assessment: Quantifying physical vulnerability in the built environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, S. F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Fonseca, J. F. B. D.; Solidum, R. U.; Wilson, T. M.

2014-04-01

This paper presents structured and cost-effective methods for assessing the physical vulnerability of at-risk communities to the range of volcanic hazards, developed as part of the MIA-VITA project (2009-2012). An initial assessment of building and infrastructure vulnerability has been carried out for a set of broadly defined building types and infrastructure categories, with the likelihood of damage considered separately for projectile impact, ash fall loading, pyroclastic density current dynamic pressure and earthquake ground shaking intensities. In refining these estimates for two case study areas: Kanlaon volcano in the Philippines and Fogo volcano in Cape Verde, we have developed guidelines and methodologies for carrying out physical vulnerability assessments in the field. These include identifying primary building characteristics, such as construction material and method, as well as subsidiary characteristics, for example the size and prevalence of openings, that may be important in assessing eruption impacts. At-risk buildings around Kanlaon were found to be dominated by timber frame buildings that exhibit a high vulnerability to pyroclastic density currents, but a low vulnerability to failure from seismic shaking. Around Fogo, the predominance of unreinforced masonry buildings with reinforced concrete slab roofs suggests a high vulnerability to volcanic earthquake but a low vulnerability to ash fall loading. Given the importance of agriculture for local livelihoods around Kanlaon and Fogo, we discuss the potential impact of infrastructure vulnerability for local agricultural economies, with implications for volcanic areas worldwide. These methodologies and tools go some way towards offering a standardised approach to carrying out future vulnerability assessments for populated volcanic areas.

Iowa's bridge and highway climate change and extreme weather vulnerability assessment pilot : [tech transfer summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-03-01

An interactive and proactive process is desired to collect, monitor, : predict, and evaluate performance of existing Iowa highway : structures and roadway embankments during flood inundation, to : assist in proactively mitigating these events, and to...

Extending Vulnerability Assessment to Include Life Stages Considerations

PubMed Central

Hodgson, Emma E.; Essington, Timothy E.; Kaplan, Isaac C.

2016-01-01

Species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Vulnerability assessment is one tool to evaluate the likely impacts that these stressors pose to species so that high-vulnerability cases can be identified and prioritized for monitoring, protection, or mitigation. Commonly used semi-quantitative methods lack a framework to explicitly account for differences in exposure to stressors and organism responses across life stages. Here we propose a modification to commonly used spatial vulnerability assessment methods that includes such an approach, using ocean acidification in the California Current as an illustrative case study. Life stage considerations were included by assessing vulnerability of each life stage to ocean acidification and were used to estimate population vulnerability in two ways. We set population vulnerability equal to: (1) the maximum stage vulnerability and (2) a weighted mean across all stages, with weights calculated using Lefkovitch matrix models. Vulnerability was found to vary across life stages for the six species explored in this case study: two krill–Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, pteropod–Limacina helicina, pink shrimp–Pandalus jordani, Dungeness crab–Metacarcinus magister and Pacific hake–Merluccius productus. The maximum vulnerability estimates ranged from larval to subadult and adult stages with no consistent stage having maximum vulnerability across species. Similarly, integrated vulnerability metrics varied greatly across species. A comparison showed that some species had vulnerabilities that were similar between the two metrics, while other species’ vulnerabilities varied substantially between the two metrics. These differences primarily resulted from cases where the most vulnerable stage had a low relative weight. We compare these methods and explore circumstances where each method may be appropriate. PMID:27416031

Extending Vulnerability Assessment to Include Life Stages Considerations.

PubMed

Hodgson, Emma E; Essington, Timothy E; Kaplan, Isaac C

2016-01-01

Species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Vulnerability assessment is one tool to evaluate the likely impacts that these stressors pose to species so that high-vulnerability cases can be identified and prioritized for monitoring, protection, or mitigation. Commonly used semi-quantitative methods lack a framework to explicitly account for differences in exposure to stressors and organism responses across life stages. Here we propose a modification to commonly used spatial vulnerability assessment methods that includes such an approach, using ocean acidification in the California Current as an illustrative case study. Life stage considerations were included by assessing vulnerability of each life stage to ocean acidification and were used to estimate population vulnerability in two ways. We set population vulnerability equal to: (1) the maximum stage vulnerability and (2) a weighted mean across all stages, with weights calculated using Lefkovitch matrix models. Vulnerability was found to vary across life stages for the six species explored in this case study: two krill-Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, pteropod-Limacina helicina, pink shrimp-Pandalus jordani, Dungeness crab-Metacarcinus magister and Pacific hake-Merluccius productus. The maximum vulnerability estimates ranged from larval to subadult and adult stages with no consistent stage having maximum vulnerability across species. Similarly, integrated vulnerability metrics varied greatly across species. A comparison showed that some species had vulnerabilities that were similar between the two metrics, while other species' vulnerabilities varied substantially between the two metrics. These differences primarily resulted from cases where the most vulnerable stage had a low relative weight. We compare these methods and explore circumstances where each method may be appropriate.

Taxonomy of USA east coast fishing communities in terms of social vulnerability and resilience

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pollnac, Richard B., E-mail: pollnac3@gmail.com; Seara, Tarsila, E-mail: tarsila.seara@noaa.gov; Colburn, Lisa L., E-mail: lisa.l.colburn@noaa.gov

Increased concern with the impacts that changing coastal environments can have on coastal fishing communities led to a recent effort by NOAA Fisheries social scientists to develop a set of indicators of social vulnerability and resilience for the U.S. Southeast and Northeast coastal communities. A goal of the NOAA Fisheries social vulnerability and resilience indicator program is to support time and cost effective use of readily available data in furtherance of both social impact assessments of proposed changes to fishery management regulations and climate change adaptation planning. The use of the indicators to predict the response to change in coastalmore » communities would be enhanced if community level analyses could be grouped effectively. This study examines the usefulness of combining 1130 communities into 35 relevant subgroups by comparing results of a numerical taxonomy with data collected by interview methods, a process herein referred to as “ground-truthing.” The validation of the taxonomic method by the method of ground-truthing indicates that the clusters are adequate to be used to select communities for in-depth research. - Highlights: • We develop a taxonomy of fishing communities based on vulnerability indicators. • We validate the community clusters through the use of surveys (“ground-truthing”). • Clusters differ along important aspects of fishing community vulnerability. • Clustering communities allows for accurate and timely social impact assessments.« less

Developing a probability-based model of aquifer vulnerability in an agricultural region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shih-Kai; Jang, Cheng-Shin; Peng, Yi-Huei

2013-04-01

SummaryHydrogeological settings of aquifers strongly influence the regional groundwater movement and pollution processes. Establishing a map of aquifer vulnerability is considerably critical for planning a scheme of groundwater quality protection. This study developed a novel probability-based DRASTIC model of aquifer vulnerability in the Choushui River alluvial fan, Taiwan, using indicator kriging and to determine various risk categories of contamination potentials based on estimated vulnerability indexes. Categories and ratings of six parameters in the probability-based DRASTIC model were probabilistically characterized according to the parameter classification methods of selecting a maximum estimation probability and calculating an expected value. Moreover, the probability-based estimation and assessment gave us an excellent insight into propagating the uncertainty of parameters due to limited observation data. To examine the prediction capacity of pollutants for the developed probability-based DRASTIC model, medium, high, and very high risk categories of contamination potentials were compared with observed nitrate-N exceeding 0.5 mg/L indicating the anthropogenic groundwater pollution. The analyzed results reveal that the developed probability-based DRASTIC model is capable of predicting high nitrate-N groundwater pollution and characterizing the parameter uncertainty via the probability estimation processes.

Assessment of composite index methods for agricultural vulnerability to climate change.

PubMed

Wiréhn, Lotten; Danielsson, Åsa; Neset, Tina-Simone S

2015-06-01

A common way of quantifying and communicating climate vulnerability is to calculate composite indices from indicators, visualizing these as maps. Inherent methodological uncertainties in vulnerability assessments, however, require greater attention. This study examines Swedish agricultural vulnerability to climate change, the aim being to review various indicator approaches for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change and to evaluate differences in climate vulnerability depending on the weighting and summarizing methods. The reviewed methods are evaluated by being tested at the municipal level. Three weighting and summarizing methods, representative of climate vulnerability indices in general, are analysed. The results indicate that 34 of 36 method combinations differ significantly from each other. We argue that representing agricultural vulnerability in a single composite index might be insufficient to guide climate adaptation. We emphasize the need for further research into how to measure and visualize agricultural vulnerability and into how to communicate uncertainties in both data and methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mapping Water Vulnerability of the Yangtze River Basin: 1994-2013.

PubMed

Sun, Fengyun; Kuang, Wenhui; Xiang, Weining; Che, Yue

2016-11-01

A holistic understanding of the magnitude and long-term trend of water vulnerability is essential for making management decisions in a given river basin. Existing procedures to assess the spatiotemporal dynamic of water vulnerability in complex mega-scale river basins are inadequate; a new method named ensemble hydrologic assessment was proposed in this study, which allows collection of data and knowledge about many aspects of water resources to be synthesized in a useful way for vulnerability assessment. The objective of this study is to illustrate the practical utility of such an integrated approach in examining water vulnerability in the Yangtze River Basin. Overall, the results demonstrated that the ensemble hydrologic assessment model could largely explain the spatiotemporal evolution of water vulnerability. This paper improves understanding of the status and trends of water resources in the Yangtze River Basin.

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

Treesearch

Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

2016-01-01

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

Risk assessment by dynamic representation of vulnerability, exploitation, and impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cam, Hasan

2015-05-01

Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.

Assessment of Hammocks (Petenes) Resilience to Sea Level Rise Due to Climate Change in Mexico

PubMed Central

Posada Vanegas, Gregorio; de Jong, Bernardus H. J.

2016-01-01

There is a pressing need to assess resilience of coastal ecosystems against sea level rise. To develop appropriate response strategies against future climate disturbances, it is important to estimate the magnitude of disturbances that these ecosystems can absorb and to better understand their underlying processes. Hammocks (petenes) coastal ecosystems are highly vulnerable to sea level rise linked to climate change; their vulnerability is mainly due to its close relation with the sea through underground drainage in predominantly karstic soils. Hammocks are biologically important because of their high diversity and restricted distribution. This study proposes a strategy to assess resilience of this coastal ecosystem when high-precision data are scarce. Approaches and methods used to derive ecological resilience maps of hammocks are described and assessed. Resilience models were built by incorporating and weighting appropriate indicators of persistence to assess hammocks resilience against flooding due to climate change at “Los Petenes Biosphere Reserve”, in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico. According to the analysis, 25% of the study area is highly resilient (hot spots), whereas 51% has low resilience (cold spots). The most significant hot spot clusters of resilience were located in areas distant to the coastal zone, with indirect tidal influence, and consisted mostly of hammocks surrounded by basin mangrove and floodplain forest. This study revealed that multi-criteria analysis and the use of GIS for qualitative, semi-quantitative and statistical spatial analyses constitute a powerful tool to develop ecological resilience maps of coastal ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to sea level rise, even when high-precision data are not available. This method can be applied in other sites to help develop resilience analyses and decision-making processes for management and conservation of coastal areas worldwide. PMID:27611802

Assessment of Hammocks (Petenes) Resilience to Sea Level Rise Due to Climate Change in Mexico.

PubMed

Hernández-Montilla, Mariana C; Martínez-Morales, Miguel Angel; Posada Vanegas, Gregorio; de Jong, Bernardus H J

2016-01-01

There is a pressing need to assess resilience of coastal ecosystems against sea level rise. To develop appropriate response strategies against future climate disturbances, it is important to estimate the magnitude of disturbances that these ecosystems can absorb and to better understand their underlying processes. Hammocks (petenes) coastal ecosystems are highly vulnerable to sea level rise linked to climate change; their vulnerability is mainly due to its close relation with the sea through underground drainage in predominantly karstic soils. Hammocks are biologically important because of their high diversity and restricted distribution. This study proposes a strategy to assess resilience of this coastal ecosystem when high-precision data are scarce. Approaches and methods used to derive ecological resilience maps of hammocks are described and assessed. Resilience models were built by incorporating and weighting appropriate indicators of persistence to assess hammocks resilience against flooding due to climate change at "Los Petenes Biosphere Reserve", in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico. According to the analysis, 25% of the study area is highly resilient (hot spots), whereas 51% has low resilience (cold spots). The most significant hot spot clusters of resilience were located in areas distant to the coastal zone, with indirect tidal influence, and consisted mostly of hammocks surrounded by basin mangrove and floodplain forest. This study revealed that multi-criteria analysis and the use of GIS for qualitative, semi-quantitative and statistical spatial analyses constitute a powerful tool to develop ecological resilience maps of coastal ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to sea level rise, even when high-precision data are not available. This method can be applied in other sites to help develop resilience analyses and decision-making processes for management and conservation of coastal areas worldwide.

Multi-level significance of vulnerability indicators. Case study: Eastern Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanga, I. C.; Grozavu, A.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment aims, most frequently, to emphasize internal fragility of a system comparing to a reference standard, to similar systems or in relation to a given hazard. Internal fragility, either biophysical or structural, may affect the capacity to predict, to prepare for, to cope with or to recover from a disaster. Thus, vulnerability is linked to resilience and adaptive capacity. From local level to global one, vulnerability factors and corresponding indicators are different and their significance must be tested and validated in a well-structured conceptual and methodological framework. In this paper, the authors aim to show the real vulnerability of rural settlements in Eastern Romania in a multi-level approach. The research area, Tutova Hills, counts about 3421 sq.km and more than 200.000 inhabitants in 421 villages characterized by deficient accessibility, lack of endowments, subsistential agriculture, high pressure on natural environment (especially on forest and soil resources), poverty and aging process of population. Factors that could influence the vulnerability of these rural settlements have been inventoried and assigned into groups through a cluster analysis: habitat and technical urban facilities, infrastructure, economical, social and demographical indicators, environment quality, management of emergency situations etc. Firstly, the main difficulty was to convert qualitative variable in quantitative indicators and to standardize all values to make possible mathematical and statistical processing of data. Secondly, the great variability of vulnerability factors, their different measuring units and their high amplitude of variation require different method of standardization in order to obtain values between zero (minimum vulnerability) and one (maximum vulnerability). Final vulnerability indicators were selected and integrated in a general scheme, according to their significance resulted from an appropriate factor analysis: linear and logistic regression, varimax rotation, multiple-criteria decision analysis, weight of evidence, multi-criteria evaluation method etc. The approach started from the local level which allows a functional and structural analysis and was progressively translated to an upper level and to a spatial analysis. The model shows that changing the level of analysis diminishes the functional significance of some indicators and increases the capacity of discretization in the case of others, highlighting the spatial and functional complexity of vulnerability.

Psychological vulnerability, burnout, and coping among employees of a business process outsourcing organization.

PubMed

Machado, Tanya; Sathyanarayanan, Vidya; Bhola, Poornima; Kamath, Kirthi

2013-01-01

The business process outsourcing (BPO) sector is a contemporary work setting in India, with a large and relatively young workforce. There is concern that the demands of the work environment may contribute to stress levels and psychological vulnerability among employees as well as to high attrition levels. As part of a larger study, questionnaires were used to assess psychological distress, burnout, and coping strategies in a sample of 1,209 employees of a BPO organization. The analysis indicated that 38% of the sample had significant psychological distress on the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28; Goldberg and Hillier, 1979). The vulnerable groups were women, permanent employees, data processors, and those employed for 6 months or longer. The reported levels of burnout were low and the employees reported a fairly large repertoire of coping behaviors. The study has implications for individual and systemic efforts at employee stress management and workplace prevention approaches. The results point to the emerging and growing role of mental health professionals in the corporate sector.

Use of North American Breeding Bird Survey data in avian conservation assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberg, Kenneth V.; Blancher, Peter J.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Panjabi, Arvind O.

2017-01-01

Conservation resources are limited, and prioritizing species based on their relative vulnerability and risk of extinction is a fundamental component of conservation planning. In North America, the conservation consortium Partners in Flight (PIF) has developed and implemented a data-driven species assessment process, at global and regional scales, based on quantitative vulnerability criteria. This species assessment process has formed the biological basis for PIF's continental and regional planning and has informed the ranking and legal listing of bird species for conservation protection by state, provincial, and national agencies in Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. Because of its long time series, extensive geographic and species coverage, standardized survey methods, and prompt availability of results, the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has been an invaluable source of data, allowing PIF to assign objective vulnerability scores calibrated across more than 460 landbird species. BBS data have been most valuable for assessing long-term population trends (PT score). PIF has also developed methods for estimating population size by extrapolating from BBS abundance indices, allowing the assignment of categorical population size (PS) scores for landbird species. At regional scales, BBS relative abundance indices have allowed PIF to assess the area importance (i.e. stewardship responsibility) of each Bird Conservation Region (BCR) for each species, using measures of both relative density and percent of total population in each BCR. Besides direct applicability to assessment scores, PIF has recently used BBS trend data to create new metrics of conservation urgency (e.g., ‘half-life'), as well as for setting population objectives for tracking progress toward meeting conservation goals. Future directions include integrating BBS data with other sources (e.g., eBird) to assess additional species and nonbreeding season measures, working closely with BBS coordinators to expand surveys into Mexico, and providing assessment scores at implementation-relevant scales, such as for migratory bird joint ventures.

Fuzzy decision analysis for integrated environmental vulnerability assessment of the mid-Atlantic Region.

PubMed

Tran, Liem T; Knight, C Gregory; O'Neill, Robert V; Smith, Elizabeth R; Riitters, Kurt H; Wickham, James

2002-06-01

A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators was developed. This was a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The method was capable of ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumulative impacts across a large region. Using data on land cover, population, roads, streams, air pollution, and topography of the Mid-Atlantic region, we were able to point out areas that were in relatively poor condition and/or vulnerable to future deterioration. The method offered an easy and comprehensive way to combine the strengths of fuzzy set theory and the AHP for ecological assessment. Furthermore, the suggested method can serve as a building block for the evaluation of environmental policies.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon-DNA adducts in Beluga whales from the Arctic

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mathieu, A.; Payne, J.F.; Fancey, L.L.

1997-09-01

The Arctic is still relatively pristine in nature, but it is also vulnerable to pollution because contaminants originating from midlatitudes are transported to the Arctic by atmospheric processes, ocean currents, and river. Recognition of this fact of Arctic vulnerability has resulted in a Declaration on the Protection of the Arctic Environment by eight Arctic countries. A manifest aim of this declaration is to develop an Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program. We report here on the presence of measurable levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon-DNA adducts, including relatively high levels in Arctic beluga (Delphinapterus leucas). These results lend support to the valuemore » of developing biological assessment programs for Arctic wildlife. 15 refs., 1 tab.« less

A 'Healthy Islands' framework for climate change in the Pacific.

PubMed

McIver, Lachlan; Bowen, Kathryn; Hanna, Elizabeth; Iddings, Steven

2017-06-01

Small Pacific Island countries (PICs) are among the most vulnerable countries in the world to the anticipated detrimental health effects of climate change. The assessment of health vulnerabilities and planning adaptation strategies to minimize the impacts of climate change on health tests traditional health governance structures and depends on strong linkages and partnerships between actors involved in these vital processes. This article reviews the actors, processes and contexts of the climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project carried out by the World Health Organization and health sector partners in three island countries in the Micronesian region of the Pacific throughout 2010 and 2011: Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands and Palau. Despite their shared history and cultural characteristics, the findings and implications of this article are considered to have substantial relevance and potential application to other PICs. The modified 'Healthy Islands' framework for climate change and health adaptation presented in this article draws upon real-world experience and governance theory from both the health and climate change literature and, for the first time, places health systems adaptation within the vision for 'Healthy Islands' in the Pacific region. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Indicators of climate impacts for forests: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment indicators system

Treesearch

Linda S. Heath; Sarah M. Anderson; Marla R. Emery; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Jeremy Littell; Alan Lucier; Jeffrey G. Masek; David L. Peterson; Richard Pouyat; Kevin M. Potter; Guy Robertson; Jinelle Sperry; Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Sarah Jovan; Miranda H. Mockrin; Robert Musselman; Bethany K. Schulz; Robert J. Smith; Susan I. Stewart

2015-01-01

The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) process for the United States focused in part on developing a system of indicators to communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness to inform decisionmakers and the public. Initially, 13 active teams were formed to recommend indicators in a range of categories, including...

Enhancement of global flood damage assessments using building material based vulnerability curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Englhardt, Johanna; de Ruiter, Marleen; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

This study discusses the development of an enhanced approach for flood damage and risk assessments using vulnerability curves that are based on building material information. The approach draws upon common practices in earthquake vulnerability assessments, and is an alternative for land-use or building occupancy approach in flood risk assessment models. The approach is of particular importance for studies where there is a large variation in building material, such as large scale studies or studies in developing countries. A case study of Ethiopia is used to demonstrate the impact of the different methodological approaches on direct damage assessments due to flooding. Generally, flood damage assessments use damage curves for different land-use or occupancy types (i.e. urban or residential and commercial classes). However, these categories do not necessarily relate directly to vulnerability of damage by flood waters. For this, the construction type and building material may be more important, as is used in earthquake risk assessments. For this study, we use building material classification data of the PAGER1 project to define new building material based vulnerability classes for flood damage. This approach will be compared to the widely applied land-use based vulnerability curves such as used by De Moel et al. (2011). The case of Ethiopia demonstrates and compares the feasibility of this novel flood vulnerability method on a country level which holds the potential to be scaled up to a global level. The study shows that flood vulnerability based on building material also allows for better differentiation between flood damage in urban and rural settings, opening doors to better link to poverty studies when such exposure data is available. Furthermore, this new approach paves the road to the enhancement of multi-risk assessments as the method enables the comparison of vulnerability across different natural hazard types that also use material-based vulnerability curves. Finally, this approach allows for more accuracy in estimating losses as a result of direct damages. 1 http://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/pager/

Protecting and Respecting the Vulnerable: Existing Regulations or Further Protections?

PubMed Central

Solomon, Stephanie R.

2013-01-01

Scholars and policymakers continue to struggle over the meaning of the word “vulnerable” in the context of research ethics. One major reason for the stymied discussions regarding vulnerable populations is that there is no clear distinction between accounts of research vulnerabilities that exist for certain populations and discussions of research vulnerabilities that require special regulations in the context of research ethics policies. I suggest an analytic process by which to ascertain whether particular vulnerable populations should be contenders for additional regulatory protections. I apply this process to two vulnerable populations: the cognitively vulnerable and the economically vulnerable. I conclude that a subset of the cognitively vulnerable require extra protections while the economically vulnerable should be protected by implementing existing regulations more appropriately and rigorously. Unless or until the informed consent process is more adequately implemented and the distributive justice requirement of the Belmont Report is emphasized and operationalized, the economically disadvantaged will remain particularly vulnerable to the harm of exploitation in research. PMID:23329228

An Approach to Developing Local Climate Change Environmental Public Health Indicators in a Rural District.

PubMed

Houghton, Adele; Austin, Jessica; Beerman, Abby; Horton, Clayton

2017-01-01

Climate change represents a significant and growing threat to population health. Rural areas face unique challenges, such as high rates of vulnerable populations; economic uncertainty due to their reliance on industries that are vulnerable to climate change; less resilient infrastructure; and lower levels of access to community and emergency services than urban areas. This article fills a gap in public health practice by developing climate and health environmental public health indicators for a local public health department in a rural area. We adapted the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network's framework for climate and health indicators to a seven-county health department in Western Kentucky. Using a three-step review process, we identified primary climate-related environmental public health hazards for the region (extreme heat, drought, and flooding) and a suite of related exposure, health outcome, population vulnerability, and environmental vulnerability indicators. Indicators that performed more poorly at the county level than at the state and national level were defined as "high vulnerability." Six to eight high vulnerability indicators were identified for each county. The local health department plans to use the results to enhance three key areas of existing services: epidemiology, public health preparedness, and community health assessment.

Assessment of a Bayesian Belief Network-GIS framework as a practical tool to support marine planning.

PubMed

Stelzenmüller, V; Lee, J; Garnacho, E; Rogers, S I

2010-10-01

For the UK continental shelf we developed a Bayesian Belief Network-GIS framework to visualise relationships between cumulative human pressures, sensitive marine landscapes and landscape vulnerability, to assess the consequences of potential marine planning objectives, and to map uncertainty-related changes in management measures. Results revealed that the spatial assessment of footprints and intensities of human activities had more influence on landscape vulnerabilities than the type of landscape sensitivity measure used. We addressed questions regarding consequences of potential planning targets, and necessary management measures with spatially-explicit assessment of their consequences. We conclude that the BN-GIS framework is a practical tool allowing for the visualisation of relationships, the spatial assessment of uncertainty related to spatial management scenarios, the engagement of different stakeholder views, and enables a quick update of new spatial data and relationships. Ultimately, such BN-GIS based tools can support the decision-making process used in adaptive marine management. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Science-based Forest Management in an Era of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swanston, C.; Janowiak, M.; Brandt, L.; Butler, P.; Handler, S.; Shannon, D.

2014-12-01

Recognizing the need to provide climate adaptation information, training, and tools to forest managers, the Forest Service joined with partners in 2009 to launch a comprehensive effort called the Climate Change Response Framework (www.forestadaptation.org). The Framework provides a structured approach to help managers integrate climate considerations into forest management plans and then implement adaptation actions on the ground. A planning tool, the Adaptation Workbook, is used in conjunction with vulnerability assessments and a diverse "menu" of adaptation approaches to generate site-specific adaptation actions that meet explicit management objectives. Additionally, a training course, designed around the Adaptation Workbook, leads management organizations through this process of designing on-the-ground adaptation tactics for their management projects. The Framework is now being actively pursued in 20 states in the Northwoods, Central Hardwoods, Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and New England. The Framework community includes over 100 science and management groups, dozens of whom have worked together to complete six ecoregional vulnerability assessments covering nearly 135 million acres. More than 75 forest and urban forest adaptation strategies and approaches were synthesized from peer-reviewed and gray literature, expert solicitation, and on-the-ground adaptation projects. These are being linked through the Adaptation Workbook process to on-the-ground adaptation tactics being planned and employed in more than 50 adaptation "demonstrations". This presentation will touch on the scientific and professional basis of the vulnerability assessments, and showcase efforts where adaptation actions are currently being implemented in forests.

Assessment of human-natural system characteristics influencing global freshwater supply vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padowski, Julie C.; Gorelick, Steven M.; Thompson, Barton H.; Rozelle, Scott; Fendorf, Scott

2015-10-01

Global freshwater vulnerability is a product of environmental and human dimensions, however, it is rarely assessed as such. Our approach identifies freshwater vulnerability using four broad categories: endowment, demand, infrastructure, and institutions, to capture impacts on natural and managed water systems within the coupled human-hydrologic environment. These categories are represented by 19 different endogenous and exogenous characteristics affecting water supply vulnerability. By evaluating 119 lower per capita income countries (<10 725), we find that every nation experiences some form of vulnerability. Institutional vulnerability is experienced most commonly, occurring in 44 nations, and 23 countries suffer deficiencies in all four categories. Of these highly vulnerable countries, Jordan is the most vulnerable, reporting the greatest number of characteristics (5 of 19) at critical vulnerability levels, with Yemen and Djibouti nearly as vulnerable. Surprising similarities in vulnerability were also found among geographically disparate nations such as Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Guatemala. Determining shared patterns of freshwater vulnerability provides insights into why water supply vulnerabilities are manifested in human-water systems at the national scale.

6 CFR 27.235 - Alternative security program.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... submit an ASP in lieu of a Security Vulnerability Assessment, Site Security Plan, or both. (2) Tier 1... Tier 3 facilities may not submit an ASP in lieu of a Security Vulnerability Assessment. (b) The... Security Vulnerability Assessment or using the procedure specified in § 27.245 if the ASP is intended to...

Integrating Science and Management to Assess Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change

Treesearch

Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Christopher W. Swanston

2017-01-01

We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to...

Identifying Hydrogeological Controls of Catchment Low-Flow Dynamics Using Physically Based Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cochand, F.; Carlier, C.; Staudinger, M.; Seibert, J.; Hunkeler, D.; Brunner, P.

2017-12-01

Identifying key catchment characteristics and processes which control the hydrological response under low-flow conditions is important to assess the catchments' vulnerability to dry periods. In the context of a Swiss Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) project, the low-flow behaviours of two mountainous catchments were investigated. These neighboring catchments are characterized by the same meteorological conditions, but feature completely different river flow dynamics. The Roethenbach is characterized by high peak flows and low mean flows. Conversely, the Langete is characterized by relatively low peak flows and high mean flow rates. To understand the fundamentally different behaviour of the two catchments, a physically-based surface-subsurface flow HydroGeoSphere (HGS) model for each catchment was developed. The main advantage of a physically-based model is its ability to realistically reproduce processes which play a key role during low-flow periods such as surface-subsurface interactions or evapotranspiration. Both models were calibrated to reproduce measured groundwater heads and the surface flow dynamics. Subsequently, the calibrated models were used to explore the fundamental physics that control hydrological processes during low-flow periods. To achieve this, a comparative sensitivity analysis of model parameters of both catchments was carried out. Results show that the hydraulic conductivity of the bedrock (and weathered bedrock) controls the catchment water dynamics in both models. Conversely, the properties of other geological formations such as alluvial aquifer or soil layer hydraulic conductivity or porosity play a less important role. These results change significantly our perception of the streamflow catchment dynamics and more specifically the way to assess catchment vulnerability to dry period. This study suggests that by analysing catchment scale bedrock properties, the catchment dynamics and the vulnerability to dry period may be assessed.

Spatially Representing Vulnerability to Extreme Rain Events Using Midwestern Farmers' Objective and Perceived Attributes of Adaptive Capacity.

PubMed

Gardezi, Maaz; Arbuckle, J Gordon

2017-11-29

Potential climate-change-related impacts to agriculture in the upper Midwest pose serious economic and ecological risks to the U.S. and the global economy. On a local level, farmers are at the forefront of responding to the impacts of climate change. Hence, it is important to understand how farmers and their farm operations may be more or less vulnerable to changes in the climate. A vulnerability index is a tool commonly used by researchers and practitioners to represent the geographical distribution of vulnerability in response to global change. Most vulnerability assessments measure objective adaptive capacity using secondary data collected by governmental agencies. However, other scholarship on human behavior has noted that sociocultural and cognitive factors, such as risk perceptions and perceived capacity, are consequential for modulating people's actual vulnerability. Thus, traditional assessments can potentially overlook people's subjective perceptions of changes in climate and extreme weather events and the extent to which people feel prepared to take necessary steps to cope with and respond to the negative effects of climate change. This article addresses this knowledge gap by: (1) incorporating perceived adaptive capacity into a vulnerability assessment; (2) using spatial smoothing to aggregate individual-level vulnerabilities to the county level; and (3) evaluating the relationships among different dimensions of adaptive capacity to examine whether perceived capacity should be integrated into vulnerability assessments. The result suggests that vulnerability assessments that rely only on objective measures might miss important sociocognitive dimensions of capacity. Vulnerability indices and maps presented in this article can inform engagement strategies for improving environmental sustainability in the region. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Neuropsychological characteristics of child and adolescent offspring of patients with bipolar disorder.

PubMed

de la Serna, Elena; Vila, Monserrat; Sanchez-Gistau, Vanessa; Moreno, Dolores; Romero, Soledad; Sugranyes, Gisela; Baeza, Immaculada; Llorente, Cloe; Rodriguez-Toscano, Elisa; Sánchez-Gutierrez, Teresa; Castro-Fornieles, Josefina

2016-02-04

Bipolar disorder (BD) is a severe mental disorder with a strong genetic component. The assessment of child and adolescent offspring of patients diagnosed with BD (BDoff) provides an opportunity to investigate vulnerability factors and the first abnormalities associated with the disorder. Previous literature in child and adolescent BDoff is scarce and controversial. However, some studies concur in identifying significant impairment in executive functions, memory and attention. The present study aims to compare global neuropsychological characteristics of child and adolescent offspring of patients with bipolar disorder with a group of offspring of parentswith no history of psychotic disorder, and to assess the influence of psychopathology on neuropsychological performance. This research was part of The Bipolar and Schizophrenia Young Offspring Study (BASYS). A group of BDoff (N= 90) and a group of offspring of parents with no history of psychotic disorder (CC) (N = 107) were assessed with a complete neuropsychological battery. Intellectual quotient, working memory, processing speed, verbal memory and learning, visual memory, attention and executive functions were included in the cognitive assessment. BDoff showed significantly worse performance in processing speed and immediate recall of visual memory relative to CC. When the presence of any lifetime psychopathology was analysed, the results showed that belonging to the BDoff group was the main explicative factor for the scores obtained in both processing speed and visual memory immediate recall, regardless of the presence of psychopathology. These findings suggest that processing speed and visualmemory should be taken into consideration in future research on vulnerability markers of BD.

Large-scale experiments for the vulnerability analysis of buildings impacted and intruded by fluviatile torrential hazard processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sturm, Michael; Gems, Bernhard; Fuchs, Sven; Mazzorana, Bruno; Papathoma-Köhle, Maria; Aufleger, Markus

2016-04-01

In European mountain regions, losses due to torrential hazards are still considerable high despite the ongoing debate on an overall increasing or decreasing trend. Recent events in Austria severely revealed that due to technical and economic reasons, an overall protection of settlements in the alpine environment against torrential hazards is not feasible. On the side of the hazard process, events with unpredictable intensities may represent overload scenarios for existent protection structures in the torrent catchments. They bear a particular risk of significant losses in the living space. Although the importance of vulnerability is widely recognised, there is still a research gap concerning its assessment. Currently, potential losses at buildings due to torrential hazards and their comparison with reinstatement costs are determined by the use of empirical functions. Hence, relations of process intensities and the extent of losses, gathered by the analysis of historic hazard events and the information of object-specific restoration values, are used. This approach does not represent a physics-based and integral concept since relevant and often crucial processes, as the intrusion of the fluid-sediment-mixture into elements at risk, are not considered. Based on these findings, our work is targeted at extending these findings and models of present risk research in the context of an integral, more physics-based vulnerability analysis concept. Fluviatile torrential hazard processes and their impacts on the building envelope are experimentally modelled. Material intrusion processes are thereby explicitly considered. Dynamic impacts are gathered quantitatively and spatially distributed by the use of a large set of force transducers. The experimental tests are accomplished with artificial, vertical and skewed plates, including also openings for material intrusion. Further, the impacts on specific buildings within the test site of the work, the fan apex of the Schnannerbach torrent in Tyrol (Austria), are analysed in detail. A couple of buildings are entirely reconstructed within the physical scale model at the scale 1:30. They include basement and first floor and thereby all relevant openings on the building envelopes. The results from experimental modelling represent the data basis for further physics-based vulnerability analysis. Hence, the applied vulnerability analysis concept significantly extends the methods presently used in flood risk assessment. The results of the study are of basic importance for practical application, as they provide extensive information to support hazard zone mapping and management, as well as the planning of local technical protection measures.

Comparison of empirical and numerical methods for the assessment of coastal vulnerability to erosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kokkinos, Dimitris; Prinos, Panagiotis

2017-04-01

Assessing the vulnerability to erosion is an important step in order to identify the prone areas and propose an adaptation policy to climate change in coastal areas. In this paper two coastal areas at the Northern part of the Aegean Sea are selected to examine their vulnerability to erosion. The first case is Lesbos Island where the most common feature is pocket beaches and the second one is the coast of Thrace composed by long sandy beaches. In both case studies, the same simplified methodology proposed by Mendoza and Jimenez (2009) is used, which links the vulnerability to erosion with morphodynamic parameters such as beach retreat and beach width. The key parameter for the vulnerability assessment is the beach retreat. For its calculation two different approaches are used and compared. The first approach divides the eroded volume with the eroded depth and it is based on an empirical formula, derived for the Greek seas from the CCSEAWAVS project (Kokkinos et al, 2014), which links the eroded volume with JA parameter, a beach erosion predictor proposed by Jimenez (1993). The sediment fall velocity, the beach slope and the wave characteristics are the only necessary parameters to calculate JA. The second approach is based on the results derived from the numerical model Xbeach (Roelvink et al., 2009), which is an open source, state-of the-art, two-dimensional model including the hydrodynamic processes of short and long wave transformation, wave-induced setup, overwash, inundation, as well as the morphodynamic processes of bed load and suspended sediment transport, dune face avalanching, bed update and breaching. The results indicate that the area of Thrace is very prone to erosion at the eastern and western part of the study area, while the Island of Lesbos appears to have very low vulnerability. The application of this methodology with the two different approaches aims to generate useful information about the vulnerability to erosion, to examine the reliability of the empirical approach and to support studies for an adaptation policy to climate change. References: Jiménez, J.A., Sánchez-Arcilla, A., Stive, M.J.F., (1993), "Discussion on prediction of storm/normal beach profiles" Journal of Waterway Port, Coast. & Oc. Eng., 19(4): 466-468. Kokkinos D., Prinos P., Galiatsatou G., Jimenez J.A. (2014), "Estimation of Erosion Potential and Erosion Vulnerability Indices in the study sites" CCSEAWAVS, Report-Deliverable 4.2, THALES research project (In Greek) Mendoza, E.T. and Jiménez, J.A, (2009) "Regional geomorphic vulnerability analysis to storms for Catalan beaches", P. I. Civil Eng-Mar. En., 162(3): 127-135 Roelvink D., Reniers A., Van Dongeren A., De Vries J.T., McCall R., Lescinski J. (2009), "Modelling storm impacts on beaches, dunes and barrier islands", Coast. Eng., 56: 1133-1152

The Influence of Victim Vulnerability and Gender on Police Officers' Assessment of Intimate Partner Violence Risk.

PubMed

Storey, Jennifer E; Strand, Susanne

2017-01-01

This study investigated the influence of victim vulnerability factors and gender on risk assessment for intimate partner violence (IPV). 867 cases of male and female perpetrated IPV investigated by Swedish police officers using the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER) were examined. For male-to-female IPV, victim vulnerability factors were associated with summary risk judgments and risk management recommendations. For female-to-male IPV, vulnerability factors were more often omitted, and consistent associations were not found between vulnerability factors, summary risk judgments, and risk management. Results indicate that B-SAFER victim vulnerability factors can assist in assessing male-to-female IPV risk. Further research is necessary to examine the use of B-SAFER victim vulnerability factors for female-to-male IPV, as results showed victim vulnerability factors to be less relevant to officers' decision making, particularly their management recommendations. However, several variables external to the B-SAFER, such as the availability of management strategies may account for these findings.

Institutional facilitators and barriers to local public health preparedness planning for vulnerable and at-risk populations.

PubMed

Bevc, Christine A; Simon, Matthew C; Montoya, Tanya A; Horney, Jennifer A

2014-01-01

Numerous institutional facilitators and barriers to preparedness planning exist at the local level for vulnerable and at-risk populations. Findings of this evaluation study contribute to ongoing practice-based efforts to improve response services and address public health preparedness planning and training as they relate to vulnerable and at-risk populations. From January 2012 through June 2013, we conducted a multilevel, mixed-methods evaluation study of the North Carolina Preparedness and Emergency Response Research Center's Vulnerable & At-Risk Populations Resource Guide, an online tool to aid local health departments' (LHDs') preparedness planning efforts. We examined planning practices across multiple local, regional, and state jurisdictions utilizing user data, follow-up surveys, and secondary data. To identify potential incongruities in planning, we compared respondents' reported populations of interest with corresponding census data to determine whether or not there were differences in planning priorities. We used data collected from evaluation surveys to identify key institutional facilitators and barriers associated with planning for at-risk populations, including challenges to conducting assessments and lack of resources. Results identified both barriers within institutional culture and disconnects between planning priorities and evidence-based identification of vulnerable and at-risk populations, including variation in the planning process, partnerships, and perceptions. Our results highlight the important role of LHDs in preparedness planning and the potential implications associated with organizational and bureaucratic impediments to planning implementation. A more in-depth understanding of the relationships among public institutions and the levels of preparedness that contribute to the conditions and processes that generate vulnerability is needed.

Educational interventions targeted at minors in situations of grave social vulnerability and their families

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Caba Collado, Mariangeles; Bartau Rojas, Isabel

2010-10-01

The aim of this article is to outline and assess an educational intervention programme targeted at improving the skills of families and the personal and social development of children living in situations of grave social vulnerability. The sample comprised 10 families during the first phase of the intervention and six during the second. The design, intervention and assessment process of this study was carried out in two phases over a period of a year and a half. For both phases, three different groups—of men/fathers, women/mothers and children—were established. Study variables (parenting skills and children's personal and social development) were evaluated before and after the intervention in every group, as well as during the entire process. The results, taking into account the improvements reported by all the participants (social workers, group monitors, fathers, mothers, children) show that inter-professional involvement and coordination at all phases of the intervention is vital in order to achieve small but significant improvements.

Integrating Climate Information and Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buizer, James; Goddard, Lisa; Guido, Zackry

2015-04-01

An integrated multi-disciplinary team of researchers from the University of Arizona and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University have joined forces with communities and institutions in the Caribbean, South Asia and West Africa to develop relevant, usable climate information and connect it to real decisions and development challenges. The overall objective of the "Integrating Climate Information and Decision Processes for Regional Climate Resilience" program is to build community resilience to negative impacts of climate variability and change. We produce and provide science-based climate tools and information to vulnerable peoples and the public, private, and civil society organizations that serve them. We face significant institutional challenges because of the geographical and cultural distance between the locale of climate tool-makers and the locale of climate tool-users and because of the complicated, often-inefficient networks that link them. To use an accepted metaphor, there is great institutional difficulty in coordinating the supply of and the demand for useful climate products that can be put to the task of building local resilience and reducing climate vulnerability. Our program is designed to reduce the information constraint and to initiate a linkage that is more demand driven, and which provides a set of priorities for further climate tool generation. A demand-driven approach to the co-production of appropriate and relevant climate tools seeks to meet the direct needs of vulnerable peoples as these needs have been canvassed empirically and as the benefits of application have been adequately evaluated. We first investigate how climate variability and climate change affect the livelihoods of vulnerable peoples. In so doing we assess the complex institutional web within which these peoples live -- the public agencies that serve them, their forms of access to necessary information, the structural constraints under which they make their decisions, and the non-public institutions of support that are available to them. We then interpret this complex reality in terms of the demand for science-based climate products and analyze the channels through which such climate support must pass, thus linking demand assessment with the scientific capacity to create appropriate decision support tools. In summary, the approach we employ is: 1) Demand-driven, beginning with a knowledge of the impacts of climate variability and change upon targeted populations, 2) Focused on vulnerability and resilience, which requires an understanding of broader networks of institutional actors who contribute to the adaptive capacity of vulnerable peoples, 3) Needs-based in that the climate needs matrix set priorities for the assessment of relevant climate products, 4) Dynamic in that the producers of climate products are involved at the point of demand assessment and can respond directly to stated needs, 5) Reflective in that the impacts of climate product interventions are subject to monitoring and evaluation throughout the process. Methods, approaches and preliminary results of our work in the Caribbean will be presented.

A generic multi-hazard and multi-risk framework and its application illustrated in a virtual city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mignan, Arnaud; Euchner, Fabian; Wiemer, Stefan

2013-04-01

We present a generic framework to implement hazard correlations in multi-risk assessment strategies. We consider hazard interactions (process I), time-dependent vulnerability (process II) and time-dependent exposure (process III). Our approach is based on the Monte Carlo method to simulate a complex system, which is defined from assets exposed to a hazardous region. We generate 1-year time series, sampling from a stochastic set of events. Each time series corresponds to one risk scenario and the analysis of multiple time series allows for the probabilistic assessment of losses and for the recognition of more or less probable risk paths. Each sampled event is associated to a time of occurrence, a damage footprint and a loss footprint. The occurrence of an event depends on its rate, which is conditional on the occurrence of past events (process I, concept of correlation matrix). Damage depends on the hazard intensity and on the vulnerability of the asset, which is conditional on previous damage on that asset (process II). Losses are the product of damage and exposure value, this value being the original exposure minus previous losses (process III, no reconstruction considered). The Monte Carlo method allows for a straightforward implementation of uncertainties and for implementation of numerous interactions, which is otherwise challenging in an analytical multi-risk approach. We apply our framework to a synthetic data set, defined by a virtual city within a virtual region. This approach gives the opportunity to perform multi-risk analyses in a controlled environment while not requiring real data, which may be difficultly accessible or simply unavailable to the public. Based on the heuristic approach, we define a 100 by 100 km region where earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, fluvial floods, hurricanes and coastal floods can occur. All hazards are harmonized to a common format. We define a 20 by 20 km city, composed of 50,000 identical buildings with a fixed economic value. Vulnerability curves are defined in terms of mean damage ratio as a function of hazard intensity. All data are based on simple equations found in the literature and on other simplifications. We show the impact of earthquake-earthquake interaction and hurricane-storm surge coupling, as well as of time-dependent vulnerability and exposure, on aggregated loss curves. One main result is the emergence of low probability-high consequences (extreme) events when correlations are implemented. While the concept of virtual city can suggest the theoretical benefits of multi-risk assessment for decision support, identifying their real-world practicality will require the study of real test sites.

78 FR 43863 - Proposed Collection; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-22

... verifying that cleared contractors mitigate and ensuring identified security vulnerabilities. This public... information in ISFD. In turn, this will allow DSS to better tailor vulnerability assessments and other..., prior to annual vulnerability assessments, so that accurate information is continually maintained in...

A multi-disciplinary approach to evaluate vulnerability and risks of pluvial floods under changing climate: the case study of the municipality of Venice (Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Coppola, Erika; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2015-04-01

Global climate change is expected to affect the intensity and frequency of extreme events (e.g. heat waves, drought, heavy precipitations events) leading to increasing natural disasters and damaging events (e.g. storms, pluvial floods and coastal flooding) worldwide. Especially in urban areas, disasters risks can be exacerbated by changes in exposure and vulnerability patterns (i.e. urbanization, population growth) and should be addressed by adopting a multi-disciplinary approach. A Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrating climate and environmental sciences with bottom-up participative processes was developed and applied to the urban territory of the municipality of Venice in order to evaluate the potential consequences of climate change on pluvial flood risk in urban areas. Based on the consecutive analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risks, the RRA methodology is a screening risk tool to identify and prioritize major elements at risk (e.g. residential, commercial areas and infrastructures) and to localize sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by flood risk due to heavy precipitation events, in the future scenario (2041-2050). From the early stages of its development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach to select and score site-specific vulnerability factors (e.g. slope, permeability of the soil, past flooded areas) and to consider the requests and perspectives of local stakeholders of the North Adriatic region, by means of interactive workshops, surveys and discussions. The main outputs of the assessment are risk and vulnerability maps and statistics aimed at increasing awareness about the potential effect of climate change on pluvial flood risks and at identifying hot-spot areas where future adaptation actions should be required to decrease physical-environmental vulnerabilities or building resilience and coping capacity of human society to climate change. The overall risk assessment methodology and the results of its application to the territory of the municipality of Venice will be here presented and discussed.

Historical and projected climate (1901–2050) and hydrologic response of karst aquifers, and species vulnerability in south-central Texas and western South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stamm, John F.; Poteet, Mary F.; Symstad, Amy J.; Musgrove, MaryLynn; Long, Andrew J.; Mahler, Barbara J.; Norton, Parker A.

2015-12-18

Flora and fauna that rely on springflow from Edwards and Madison aquifer sites were assessed for vulnerability to projected climate change on the basis of the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI). The CCVI is determined by the exposure of a species to climate, the sensitivity of the species, and the ability of the species to cope with climate change. Sixteen species associated with springs and groundwater were assessed in the Balcones Escarpment region. The Barton Springs salamander (Eurycea sosorum) was scored as highly vulnerable with moderate confidence. Nine species—three salamanders, a fountain darter (Etheostoma fonticola), three insects, and two amphipods—were scored as moderately vulnerable. The remaining six species—four vascular plants, the Barton cavesnail (Stygopyrgus bartonensis), and a cave shrimp—were scored as not vulnerable/presumed stable (not vulnerable and evidence does not support change in abundance or range of the species). Vulnerability of eight species associated with streams that receive springflow from the Madison aquifer in the Black Hills was assessed. Of these, the American dipper (Cinclus mexicanus) and the lesser yellow lady’s slipper (Cypripedium parviflorum) were scored as moderately vulernable with high confidence. The dwarf scouringrush (Equisetum scirpoides) and autumn willow (Salix serissima) were also scored as moderately vulnerable with moderate to low confidence, respectively. Other species were assessed as not vulnerable/presumed stable or not vulnerable/increase likely (not vulnerable and evidence supporting an increase in abundance or range of the species). Lower vulnerability scores for the Black Hills species in comparison to the Balcones Escarpment species reflect lower endemicity, higher projected springflow than in the historical period, and high thermal tolerance of many of the species for the Black Hills. Importantly, climate change vulnerability scores differed substantially for Edwards aquifer species when RRAWFLOW model projections were included, resulting in increased vulnerability scores for 12 of the 16 species.

Integrated assessment on the vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disasters under climate change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Yanqiang; Wang, Shijin; Fang, Yiping; Nawaz, Zain

2017-10-01

Animal husbandry is a dominant and traditional source of livelihood and income in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the third largest snow covered area in China and is one of the main snow disaster regions in the world. It is thus imperative to urgently address the issue of vulnerability of the animal husbandry sector to snow disasters for disaster mitigation and adaptation under growing risk of these disasters as a result of future climate change. However, there is very few literature reported on the vulnerability of animal husbandry in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. This assessment aims at identifying vulnerability of animal husbandry at spatial scale and to identify the reasons for vulnerability for adaptive planning and disaster mitigation. First, historical snow disaster characteristics have been analyzed and used for the spatial weight for vulnerability assessment. Second, indicator-based vulnerability assessment model and indicator system have been established. We combined risk of snow hazard, sensitivity of livestock to disaster, physical exposure to disaster, and community capacity to adapt to snow disaster in an integrated vulnerability index. Lastly, vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disaster on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been evaluated. Results indicate that high vulnerabilities are mainly concentrated in the eastern and central plateau and that vulnerability decreases gradually from the east to the west. Due to global warming, the vulnerability trend has eased to some extent during the last few decades. High livestock density exposure to blizzard-prone regions and shortages of livestock barn and forage are the main reasons of high vulnerability. The conclusion emphasizes the important role of the local government and community to help local pastoralists for reducing vulnerability to snow disaster and frozen hazard. The approaches presented in this paper can be used for snow disaster mitigation, resilience enhancement and effectively reducing vulnerability to natural hazards in other regions.

Study of groundwater vulnerability to pollution using the DRASTIC method coupled with a geographic information system (GIS): application to groundwater Beni Amir, Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knouz, Najat; Boudhar, Abdelghani; Bachaoui, El Mostafa

2016-04-01

Fresh water is the condition of all life on Earth for its vital role in the survival of living beings and in the social, economic and technological development. The Groundwater, as the surface water, is increasingly threatened by agricultural and industrial pollution. In this respect, the groundwater vulnerability assessment to pollution is a very valuable tool for resource protection, management of its quality and uses it in a sustainable way. The main objective of this study is the evaluation of groundwater vulnerability to pollution of the study area, Beni Amir, located in the first irrigated perimeter of Morocco, Tadla, using the DRASTIC method (depth to water, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, Topography, impact of Vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity), and assessing the impact of each parameter on the DRASTIC vulnerability index by a sensitivity analysis. This study also highlights the role of geographic information systems (GIS) in assessing vulnerability. The Vulnerability index is calculated as the sum of product of ratings and weights assigned to each of the parameter DRASTIC. The results revealed four vulnerability classes, 7% of the study area has a high vulnerability, 31% are moderately vulnerable, 57% have a low vulnerability and 5% are of very low vulnerability.

Psychometric Properties and Utility of the Social Vulnerability Questionnaire for Individuals with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities.

PubMed

Fisher, Marisa H; Shivers, Carolyn M; Josol, Cynde K

2018-06-05

Although it is well-known that individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) are socially vulnerable, the field lacks valid assessments to identify risk factors for victimization. Parents/caregivers of 428 individuals with IDD (ages 12-53) completed the social vulnerability questionnaire (SVQ), a measure developed to assess specific aspects of social vulnerability among individuals with various forms of IDD. This study examined the psychometric structure of the SVQ (exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis), and the utility of the factors of the SVQ as predictors of diagnostic category (through discriminate function analysis). Results provide psychometric support for use of the SVQ and its factors for further research and as part of a clinical assessment battery to assess social vulnerability and to develop interventions.

Northwest Regional Climate Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lipschultz, Fred

2011-01-01

Objectives are to establish a continuing, inclusive National process that: 1) synthesizes relevant science and information 2) increases understanding of what is known & not known 3) identifies information needs related to preparing for climate variability and change, and reducing climate impacts and vulnerability 4) evaluates progress of adaptation & mitigation activities 5) informs science priorities 6) builds assessment capacity in regions and sectors 7) builds understanding & skilled use of findings

Analysis of economic vulnerability to flash floods in urban areas of Castilla y León (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aroca-Jimenez, Estefanía; Bodoque, Jose Maria; García, Juan Antonio; Diez-Herrero, Andres

2017-04-01

The growth of exposed population to floods, the expansion in allocation of economical activities to flood-prone areas and the rise of extraordinary event frequency over the last few decades, have resulted in an increase of flash flood-related casualties and economic losses. The increase in these losses at an even higher rate than the increase of magnitude and frequency of extreme events, underline that the vulnerability of societies exposed is a key aspect to be considered. Vulnerability is defined as the conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards such as floods, being flash floods one of the natural hazards with the greatest capacity to generate risk. In recent years, numerous papers have deal with the assessment of the social dimension of vulnerability. However, economic factors are often a neglected aspect in traditional risk assessments which mainly focus on structural measures and flood damage models. In this context, the aim of this research is to identify those economic characteristics which render people vulnerable to flash flood hazard, and consider whether these characteristics are identifiable as local patterns at regional level. The result of this task is an Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI) based on susceptibility profiles of the population per township. These profiles are obtained by Hierarchical Segmentation and Latent Class Cluster Analysis of economic information provided by different public institutional databases. The methodology proposed here is implemented in the region of Castilla y León (94,230 km2), placed in Central-Northern Spain. Townships included in this study meet two requirements: i) urban areas are potentially affected by flash floods (i.e. villages are crossed by rivers or streams with a longitudinal slope higher than 0.01 m m-1); ii) urban areas are affected by an area with low or exceptional probability of flooding (as provided by Directive 2007/60/EC of 23 October 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks) according with the preliminary assessment of flood risk made by water authorities.

Tsunami vulnerability and damage assessment in the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atillah, A.; El Hadani, D.; Moudni, H.; Lesne, O.; Renou, C.; Mangin, A.; Rouffi, F.

2011-12-01

This study, a companion paper to Renou et al. (2011), focuses on the application of a GIS-based method to assess building vulnerability and damage in the event of a tsunami affecting the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco. This approach, designed within the framework of the European SCHEMA project (www.schemaproject.org) is based on the combination of hazard results from numerical modelling of the worst case tsunami scenario (inundation depth) based on the historical Lisbon earthquake of 1755 and the Portugal earthquake of 1969, together with vulnerability building types derived from Earth Observation data, field surveys and GIS data. The risk is then evaluated for this highly concentrated population area characterized by the implementation of a vast project of residential and touristic buildings within the flat area of the Bouregreg Valley separating the cities of Rabat and Salé. A GIS tool is used to derive building damage maps by crossing layers of inundation levels and building vulnerability. The inferred damage maps serve as a base for elaborating evacuation plans with appropriate rescue and relief processes and to prepare and consider appropriate measures to prevent the induced tsunami risk.

Avalanche risk assessment - a multi-temporal approach, results from Galtür, Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keiler, M.; Sailer, R.; Jörg, P.; Weber, C.; Fuchs, S.; Zischg, A.; Sauermoser, S.

2006-07-01

Snow avalanches pose a threat to settlements and infrastructure in alpine environments. Due to the catastrophic events in recent years, the public is more aware of this phenomenon. Alpine settlements have always been confronted with natural hazards, but changes in land use and in dealing with avalanche hazards lead to an altering perception of this threat. In this study, a multi-temporal risk assessment is presented for three avalanche tracks in the municipality of Galtür, Austria. Changes in avalanche risk as well as changes in the risk-influencing factors (process behaviour, values at risk (buildings) and vulnerability) between 1950 and 2000 are quantified. An additional focus is put on the interconnection between these factors and their influence on the resulting risk. The avalanche processes were calculated using different simulation models (SAMOS as well as ELBA+). For each avalanche track, different scenarios were calculated according to the development of mitigation measures. The focus of the study was on a multi-temporal risk assessment; consequently the used models could be replaced with other snow avalanche models providing the same functionalities. The monetary values of buildings were estimated using the volume of the buildings and average prices per cubic meter. The changing size of the buildings over time was inferred from construction plans. The vulnerability of the buildings is understood as a degree of loss to a given element within the area affected by natural hazards. A vulnerability function for different construction types of buildings that depends on avalanche pressure was used to assess the degree of loss. No general risk trend could be determined for the studied avalanche tracks. Due to the high complexity of the variations in risk, small changes of one of several influencing factors can cause considerable differences in the resulting risk. This multi-temporal approach leads to better understanding of the today's risk by identifying the main changes and the underlying processes. Furthermore, this knowledge can be implemented in strategies for sustainable development in Alpine settlements.

Impact of hydrogeological factors on groundwater salinization due to ocean-surge inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jie; Zhang, Huichen; Yu, Xuan; Graf, Thomas; Michael, Holly A.

2018-01-01

Ocean surges cause seawater inundation of coastal inland areas. Subsequently, seawater infiltrates into coastal aquifers and threatens the fresh groundwater resource. The severity of resulting salinization can be affected by hydrogeological factors including aquifer properties and hydrologic conditions, however, little research has been done to assess these effects. To understand the impacts of hydrogeological factors on groundwater salinization, we numerically simulated an ocean-surge inundation event on a two-dimensional conceptual coastal aquifer using a coupled surface-subsurface approach. We varied model permeability (including anisotropy), inland hydraulic gradient, and recharge rate. Three salinization-assessment indicators were developed, based on flushing time, depth of salt penetration, and a combination of the two, weighted flushing time, with which the impact of hydrogeological factors on groundwater vulnerability to salinization were quantitatively assessed. The vulnerability of coastal aquifers increases with increasing isotropic permeability. Low horizontal permeability (kx) and high vertical permeability (kz) lead to high aquifer vulnerability, and high kx and low kz lead to low aquifer vulnerability. Vulnerability decreases with increasing groundwater hydraulic gradient and increasing recharge rate. Additionally, coastal aquifers with a low recharge rate (R ≤ 300 mm yr-1) may be highly vulnerable to ocean-surge inundation. This study shows how the newly introduced indicators can be used to quantitatively assess coastal aquifer vulnerability. The results are important for global vulnerability assessment of coastal aquifers to ocean-surge inundation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacDonald, Douglas G.; Clements, Samuel L.; Patrick, Scott W.

Securing high value and critical assets is one of the biggest challenges facing this nation and others around the world. In modern integrated systems, there are four potential modes of attack available to an adversary: • physical only attack, • cyber only attack, • physical-enabled cyber attack, • cyber-enabled physical attack. Blended attacks involve an adversary working in one domain to reduce system effectiveness in another domain. This enables the attacker to penetrate further into the overall layered defenses. Existing vulnerability assessment (VA) processes and software tools which predict facility vulnerabilities typically evaluate the physical and cyber domains separately. Vulnerabilitiesmore » which result from the integration of cyber-physical control systems are not well characterized and are often overlooked by existing assessment approaches. In this paper, we modified modification of the timely detection methodology, used for decades in physical security VAs, to include cyber components. The Physical and Cyber Risk Analysis Tool (PACRAT) prototype illustrates an integrated vulnerability assessment that includes cyber-physical interdependencies. Information about facility layout, network topology, and emplaced safeguards is used to evaluate how well suited a facility is to detect, delay, and respond to attacks, to identify the pathways most vulnerable to attack, and to evaluate how often safeguards are compromised for a given threat or adversary type. We have tested the PACRAT prototype on critical infrastructure facilities and the results are promising. Future work includes extending the model to prescribe the recommended security improvements via an automated cost-benefit analysis.« less

Remote Sensing Based Vulnerability Assessment of Desertification in Mongolia and Myanmar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, C. H.; Lee, E. J.; Song, C.; Lee, W. K.; Jeon, S. W.

2015-12-01

Desertification is one of the global threatening problems in respect of society, economy, and environment, and the assessment of desertification is essential for land planning and management. However desertification is a process that encompasses various factors in various aspects, having difficulties to assess qualitatively. The main purpose of the research is to qualitatively assess sensitivity of land to desertification, and detect the most vulnerable land to desertification in Mongolia and Myanmar using the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) approach. MEDALUS approach aims to provide a manual on key indicators of desertification and mapping environmentally sensitive areas to desertification in the Mediterranean countries. However in this research, MEDALUS approach is implemented and reviewed on the countries located in the Middle Asia; Mongolia and Myanmar. MEDALUS approach identifies regions with the highest risk of desertification with 4 quality index; climate, soil, vegetation, management. Within the four quality index are several regional scale indicators for Mongolia and Myanmar, which gives effect with increasing or decreasing risk of desertification. MODIS satellite images, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and climatic and geographical data were used to calculate the indicators. The weighting of each indicator ranged from 1 to 2; the higher weight the more vulnerable to desertification. The weighted indicators were allocated to 4 quality index, and the four quality index was summed to calculate Environmentally Sensitive Area Index (ESAI) representing the vulnerability of land degradation to desertification. As a result, the Middle East region of Mongolia showed the highest sensitivity, thus the most vulnerable to desertification. Based on the result of this study, it is useful to identify the current state of affairs and the necessity of land planning in Mongolia and Myanmar, one tool that can be utilized for combating desertification. The result of the study is expected to be used as base material in combating desertification and land degradation, and for establishing policies.

The role of interactions along the flood process chain and implications for risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Apel, Heiko; Viet Nguyen, Dung; Guse, Björn; Kreibich, Heidi; Lüdtke, Stefan; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

Floods with their manifold characteristics are shaped by various processes along the flood process chain - from triggering meteorological extremes through catchment and river network process down to impacts on societies. In flood risk systems numerous interactions and feedbacks along the process chain may occur which finally shape spatio-temporal flood patterns and determine the ultimate risk. In this talk, we review some important interactions in the atmosphere-catchment, river-dike-floodplain and vulnerability compartments of the flood risk system. We highlight the importance of spatial interactions for flood hazard and risk assessment. For instance, the role of spatial rainfall structure or wave superposition in river networks is elucidated with selected case studies. In conclusion, we show the limits of current methods in assessment of large-scale flooding and outline the approach to more comprehensive risk assessment based on our regional flood risk model (RFM) for Germany.

Assessment of the health impacts of climate change in Kiribati.

PubMed

McIver, Lachlan; Woodward, Alistair; Davies, Seren; Tibwe, Tebikau; Iddings, Steven

2014-05-14

Kiribati-a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation-is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health.

Adapting to climate change

Treesearch

Constance I. Millar; Christopher W. Swanston; David L. Peterson

2014-01-01

Federal agencies have led the development of adaptation principles and tools in forest ecosystems over the past decade. Successful adaptation efforts generally require organizations to: (1) develop science-management partnerships, (2) provide education on climate change science, (3) provide a toolkit of methods and processes for vulnerability assessment and adaptation...

FUZZY DECISION ANALYSIS FOR INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

EPA Science Inventory

A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators is developed. This is a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The method is capable ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumula...

(Non-) robustness of vulnerability assessments to climate change: An application to New Zealand.

PubMed

Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago; Renteria, Willington

2017-12-01

Assessments of vulnerability to climate change are a key element to inform climate policy and research. Assessments based on the aggregation of indicators have a strong appeal for their simplicity but are at risk of over-simplification and uncertainty. This paper explores the non-robustness of indicators-based assessments to changes in assumptions on the degree of substitution or compensation between indicators. Our case study is a nationwide assessment for New Zealand. We found that the ranking of geographic areas is sensitive to different parameterisations of the aggregation function, that is, areas that are categorised as highly vulnerable may switch to the least vulnerable category even with respect to the same climate hazards and population groups. Policy implications from the assessments are then compromised. Though indicators-based approaches may help on identifying drivers of vulnerability, there are weak grounds to use them to recommend mitigation or adaptation decisions given the high level of uncertainty because of non-robustness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability of schools to floods in Nyando River catchment, Kenya.

PubMed

Ochola, Samuel O; Eitel, Bernhard; Olago, Daniel O

2010-07-01

This paper assesses the vulnerability of schools to floods in the Nyando River catchment (3,600 km(2)) in western Kenya and identifies measures needed to reduce this vulnerability. It surveys 130 schools in the lower reaches, where flooding is a recurrent phenomenon. Of the primary schools assessed, 40% were vulnerable, 48% were marginally vulnerable and 12% were not vulnerable. Of the secondary schools, 8% were vulnerable, 73% were marginally vulnerable and 19% were not vulnerable. Vulnerability to floods is due to a lack of funds, poor building standards, local topography, soil types and inadequate drainage. The Constituencies Development Fund (CDF), established in 2003, provides financial support to cover school construction and reconstruction costs; CDF Committees are expected to adopt school building standards. In an effort to promote safe and resilient construction and retrofitting to withstand floods, this paper presents vulnerability reduction strategies and recommendations for incorporating minimum standards in the on-going Primary School Infrastructure Programme Design.

Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

2015-04-01

Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare traditional vulnerability distributions with more recent conceptualisation of risks, more research should be devoted to global assessments of climate change risk distributions.

An holistic view on aquifer vulnerability based on a distinction of different types of vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Luca, Domenico Antonio; Lasagna, Manuela; Franchino, Elisa

2016-04-01

AN HOLISTIC VIEW ON AQUIFER VULNERABILITY BASED ON A DISTINCTION OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF VULNERABILITY D.A. De Luca1 , M. Lasagna1, E. Franchino1 1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin The concept of vulnerability is certainly useful in the field of groundwater protection. Nevertheless, within the scientific community, the definition of groundwater vulnerability is still debatable and not clear and conclusive. This is probably due to the fact that researchers often have very different experiences and education. A positive effect of it is a constant exchange of ideas, but there are also negative consequences and difficulties in deepening the issue. The different approaches are very important but they are usable only if the concept of vulnerability is standardized: thus, for the sake of clarity, a number of definitions should be laid down, based on the different types of vulnerability. These definitions can then provide the necessary holistic view for the aquifer vulnerability assessment. Nowadays vulnerability methods focus on the degree of vulnerability and the parameters needed for its evaluation, often neglecting to clarify what is the type of vulnerability the proposed methods are referred. The type of vulnerability, indeed, is both logically and hierarchically superior to the degree of vulnerability. More specifically the type of vulnerability represents the evaluation of the hydrogeological conditions considered in the vulnerability assessment and able to influence the way in which the contamination can take place. Currently the only distinction, based on of the type of vulnerability, is referred to intrinsic and specific vulnerability. Intrinsic vulnerability assesses the susceptibility of the receptor based on the natural properties of the land and subsurface; specific vulnerability also includes properties of the analyzed contaminant. This distinction is useful but not exhaustive. In addition to this, e.g., a distinction of vertical vulnerability and lateral (or horizontal) vulnerability could be very useful; generally parametric vulnerability methods only take into account the protection degree offered by the overlying lithology, considering a vertical travel pathway for the contaminant. These methods normally neglect horizontal pathway (pollution transport in groundwater according to the hydraulic gradient), so we can have an underestimation of the possible vulnerability. The distinction, the analysis and the definition of different types of vulnerability might be positive to stimulate discussion and have a number of advantages, such as: - to improve the clarity of the conditions of employment of a method, benefiting above all end-users and stakeholders; - to improve the ability to compare methods for the assessment of the degree of vulnerability; - to improve the ability to verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Summarizing components of U.S. Department of the Interior vulnerability assessments to focus climate adaptation planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Laura M.; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Carter, Shawn L.

2015-09-29

A secretarial order identified climate adaptation as a critical performance objective for future management of U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) lands and resources in response to global change. Vulnerability assessments can inform climate adaptation planning by providing insight into what natural resources are most at risk and why. Three components of vulnerability—exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity—were defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as necessary for identifying climate adaptation strategies and actions. In 2011, the DOI requested all internal bureaus report ongoing or completed vulnerability assessments about a defined range of assessment targets or climate-related threats. Assessment targets were defined as freshwater resources, landscapes and wildlife habitat, native and cultural resources, and ocean health. Climate-related threats were defined as invasive species, wildfire risk, sea-level rise, and melting ice and permafrost. Four hundred and three projects were reported, but the original DOI survey did not specify that information be provided on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity collectively as part of the request, and it was unclear which projects adhered to the framework recommended by the IPCC. Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center conducted a supplemental survey to determine how frequently each of the three vulnerability components was assessed. Information was categorized for 124 of the 403 reported projects (30.8 percent) based on the three vulnerability components, and it was discovered that exposure was the most common component assessed (87.9 percent), followed by sensitivity (68.5 percent) and adaptive capacity (33.1 percent). The majority of projects did not fully assess vulnerability; projects focused on landscapes/wildlife habitats and sea-level rise were among the minority that simultaneously addressed all three vulnerability components. To maintain consistency with the IPCC definition of vulnerability, DOI may want to focus initial climate adaptation planning only on the outcomes of studies that comprehensively address vulnerability as inclusive of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Although the present study results are preliminary and used an unstructured survey design, they illustrate the importance of a comprehensive and consistent vulnerability definition and of using information on vulnerability components in DOI surveys to ensure relevant data are used to identify adaptation options.

[Vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under sea-level rise].

PubMed

Cui, Li-Fang; Wang, Ning; Ge, Zhen-Ming; Zhang, Li-Quan

2014-02-01

To study the response of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on the coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisite for securing coastal ecosystems. In this paper, the possible impacts of sea level rise caused by climate change on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model and IPCC definition on the vulnerability. An indicator system for vulnerability assessment was established, in which sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, habitat elevation, inundation threshold of habitat and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators. A quantitatively spatial assessment method based on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability index for the assessment of coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the scenarios of sea-level rise. The vulnerability assessments on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary in 2030 and 2050 were performed under two sea-level rise scenarios (the present sea-level rise trend over recent 30 years and IPCC A1F1 scenario). The results showed that with the projection in 2030 under the present trend of sea-level rise (0.26 cm x a(-1)), 6.6% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.8% and 0.2% of the coastal wetlands were in low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively. With the projection in 2030 under the A1F1 scenario (0.59 cm x a(-1)), 9.0% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.5%, 1.0% and 0.3% of the coastal wetlands were in the low, moderate and high vulnerabilities, respectively.

An atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework for environment management and protection based on CAMx.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu

2018-02-01

This paper presents an atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework based on CAMx that should be helpful to assess potential impacts of changes in human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements of atmospheric vulnerability. It is also a useful and effective tool that can provide policy-guidance for environmental protection and management to reduce the atmospheric vulnerability. The developed framework was applied to evaluate the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region for verification. The results indicated that regional disparity of the atmospheric vulnerability existed in the study site. More specifically, the central and southern regions show more atmospheric environment vulnerability than the northern regions. The impact factors of atmospheric environment vulnerability in the BTH region mainly derived from increasing population press, frequently unfavorable meteorological conditions, extensive economic growth of secondary industry, increased environmental pollution, and accelerating population aging. The framework shown in this paper is an interpretative and heuristic tool for a better understanding of atmospheric vulnerability. This framework can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to straightly support environmental managers with decision-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Drought vulnerability assessment: The case of wheat farmers in Western Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarafshani, Kiumars; Sharafi, Lida; Azadi, Hossein; Hosseininia, Gholamhossein; De Maeyer, Philippe; Witlox, Frank

2012-12-01

Drought, as a natural and slow-onset phenomenon, creates numerous damages to agricultural communities. As a drought prone area in the Middle East, Iran has currently launched a crisis management approach to mitigate the harmful impacts of drought. However, thus far studies indicate that effective drought management strategies should be designed based upon vulnerability management which can increase farmers' ability to challenge the impacts. The purpose of this study was to assess drought vulnerability across three drought intensities (very high, extremely high, and critical) areas in Western Iran. Accordingly, a survey study was applied and 370 wheat farmers who all experienced drought during 2007-2009 were selected through a multi-stage stratified random sampling method. Face to face interviews were used to collect data on vulnerability indices from the farmers. Me-Bar and Valdez's vulnerability formula was applied to assess the vulnerability of wheat farmers during drought. Results revealed that the farmers' vulnerability is influenced mainly by economic, socio-cultural, psychological, technical, and infrastructural factors. The results also indicated that the farmers in Sarpole-Zahab township were most vulnerable compared to those in the Kermanshah township as the least vulnerable. Accordingly, some conclusions and recommendations are drawn for both policy-makers and practitioners who often must prioritize limited resources in the design vulnerability-reducing interventions.

A data mining approach to derive flood-related economic vulnerability of companies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sieg, Tobias; Kreibich, Heidi; Vogel, Kristin; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

The assessment of vulnerability gained more and more attention in flood risk research during the recent years. However, there is still not much knowledge available about flood vulnerability of companies and its influencing factors. This study follows the natural sciences concept which defines vulnerability as the degree of loss to a given element at risk resulting from flooding of a given magnitude. Machine learning algorithms like Random Forests (RFs) are promising approaches, since they consider many influencing variables and as such allow for a detailed assessment of flood vulnerability. Only these variables which are meaningful for the differentiation of a certain target variable are used by the derived models. This allows for an identification of relevant damage influencing variables and hence for a more detailed picture of flood vulnerability of companies. This study aims to identify relevant damage influencing variables by means of the variable importance provided by Random Forests. The data sets used are taken from two surveys conducted after the floods in the Elbe and Danube catchments in the years 2002 and 2013 in Germany. Damage to buildings (n = 430), equipment (n = 651) as well as goods and stock (n = 530) are taken into account. The analysis is done for the entire data set as well as for four groups of different company sectors and the corresponding data subsets. Relevant damage influencing variables separated by sector and assets are identified as, for example, the degree of contamination or precautionary measures undertaken before the flood event. The results provide insight into the damage processes and improve data-acquisition in future surveys by, for instance, asking specific questions for company sectors and assets.

Application of the new scenario framework for climate change research: Future social vulnerability in large urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohat, Guillaume; Flacke, Johannes; Dao, Hy

2016-04-01

It is by now widely acknowledged that future social vulnerability to climate change depends on both future climate state and future socio-economic conditions. Nevertheless, while most of the vulnerability assessments are using climate projections, the integration of socio-economic projections into the assessment of vulnerabilities has been very limited. Up to now, the vast majority of vulnerability assessments has been using current socio-economic conditions, hence has failed to consider the influence of socio-economic developments in the construction of vulnerability. To enhance the use of socio-economic projections into climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, the climate change research community has been recently involved in the development of a new model for creating scenarios that integrate future changes in climate as well as in society, known under the name of the new scenario framework for climate change research. This theoretical framework is made of a set of alternative futures of socio-economic developments (known as shared socio-economic pathways - SSPs), a set of hypothesis about future climate policies (known as shared policy assumptions - SPAs) and a set of greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (known as representative concentration pathways - RCPs), which are all combined into a scenario matrix architecture (SMA) whose aim is to facilitate the use of this framework. Despite calls by the climate change research community for the use of this conceptual framework in impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research, its use and its assessment has been very limited. Focusing on case-studies (i.e. specific cities as well as specific climate impacts and their associated human exposures and vulnerabilities), the study presented here will attempt to operationalize this theoretical framework for the assessment of future social vulnerability in large urban areas. A particular attention will be paid to less advanced and more vulnerable countries in the global south. We will discuss how this framework can be implemented for large urban agglomerations. To do so, we will examine: (i) by what means globally-developed SSPs can be extended into sector-specific and location-specific socio-economic development scenarios, (ii) in what manner the quantification of key socio-economic indicators (in accordance with the different SSPs), coupled with regional climate projections under different RCPs, can lead to a quantitative and reliable assessment of the evolution of future social vulnerability, and (iii) to which extent the SMA, i.e. the combination of extended SSPs, regional climate projections (under different RCPs) and various locally-developed SPAs, can answer some of the key questions regarding climate change adaptation policies, from a vulnerability perspective.

Adaptation of EVIAVE methodology for monitoring and follow-up when evaluating the environmental impact of landfills

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arrieta, Gabriela, E-mail: tonina1903@hotmail.com; Requena, Ignacio, E-mail: requena@decsai.ugr.es; Toro, Javier, E-mail: jjtoroca@unal.edu.co

Treatment and final disposal of Municipal Solid Waste can have a significant role in the generation of negative environmental impacts. As a prevention strategy, such activities are subjected to the process of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). Still, the follow-up of Environmental Management Plans or mitigation measures is limited, for one due to a lack of methodological approaches. In searching for possibilities, the University of Granada (Spain) developed a diagnostic methodology named EVIAVE, which allows one to quantify, by means of indexes, the environmental impact of landfills in view of their location and the conditions of exploitation. EVIAVE is applicable withinmore » the legal framework of the European Union and can be adapted to the environmental and legal conditions of other countries. This study entails its adaptation in Colombia, for the follow-up and control of the EIA process for landfills. Modifications involved inclusion of the environmental elements flora and fauna, and the evaluation of the environmental descriptors in agreement with the concept of vulnerability. The application of the modified EVIAVE in Colombian landfills allowed us to identify the elements affected by the operating conditions and maintenance. It may be concluded that this methodology is viable and effective for the follow-up and environmental control of EIA processes for landfills, and to analyze the associated risks, as it takes into account related environmental threats and vulnerabilities. - Highlights: • A modified methodology is used to monitor and follow-up environmental impacts in landfills. • The improved methodology includes the Vulnerability of Flora and Fauna to evaluate environmental impact of landfills. • The methodology serves to identify and evaluate the sources of risk generated in the construction and siting of landfills. • Environmental vulnerability indicators improve effectiveness of the control and follow-up phases of landfill management. • The follow-up of environmental management plans may help diminish the implementation gap in Environmental Impact Assessment.« less

An Approach to Developing Local Climate Change Environmental Public Health Indicators in a Rural District

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate change represents a significant and growing threat to population health. Rural areas face unique challenges, such as high rates of vulnerable populations; economic uncertainty due to their reliance on industries that are vulnerable to climate change; less resilient infrastructure; and lower levels of access to community and emergency services than urban areas. This article fills a gap in public health practice by developing climate and health environmental public health indicators for a local public health department in a rural area. We adapted the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network's framework for climate and health indicators to a seven-county health department in Western Kentucky. Using a three-step review process, we identified primary climate-related environmental public health hazards for the region (extreme heat, drought, and flooding) and a suite of related exposure, health outcome, population vulnerability, and environmental vulnerability indicators. Indicators that performed more poorly at the county level than at the state and national level were defined as “high vulnerability.” Six to eight high vulnerability indicators were identified for each county. The local health department plans to use the results to enhance three key areas of existing services: epidemiology, public health preparedness, and community health assessment. PMID:28352286

Predicting redox-sensitive contaminant concentrations in groundwater using random forest classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesoriero, Anthony J.; Gronberg, Jo Ann; Juckem, Paul F.; Miller, Matthew P.; Austin, Brian P.

2017-08-01

Machine learning techniques were applied to a large (n > 10,000) compliance monitoring database to predict the occurrence of several redox-active constituents in groundwater across a large watershed. Specifically, random forest classification was used to determine the probabilities of detecting elevated concentrations of nitrate, iron, and arsenic in the Fox, Wolf, Peshtigo, and surrounding watersheds in northeastern Wisconsin. Random forest classification is well suited to describe the nonlinear relationships observed among several explanatory variables and the predicted probabilities of elevated concentrations of nitrate, iron, and arsenic. Maps of the probability of elevated nitrate, iron, and arsenic can be used to assess groundwater vulnerability and the vulnerability of streams to contaminants derived from groundwater. Processes responsible for elevated concentrations are elucidated using partial dependence plots. For example, an increase in the probability of elevated iron and arsenic occurred when well depths coincided with the glacial/bedrock interface, suggesting a bedrock source for these constituents. Furthermore, groundwater in contact with Ordovician bedrock has a higher likelihood of elevated iron concentrations, which supports the hypothesis that groundwater liberates iron from a sulfide-bearing secondary cement horizon of Ordovician age. Application of machine learning techniques to existing compliance monitoring data offers an opportunity to broadly assess aquifer and stream vulnerability at regional and national scales and to better understand geochemical processes responsible for observed conditions.

Predicting redox-sensitive contaminant concentrations in groundwater using random forest classification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tesoriero, Anthony J.; Gronberg, Jo Ann M.; Juckem, Paul F.; Miller, Matthew P.; Austin, Brian P.

2017-01-01

Machine learning techniques were applied to a large (n > 10,000) compliance monitoring database to predict the occurrence of several redox-active constituents in groundwater across a large watershed. Specifically, random forest classification was used to determine the probabilities of detecting elevated concentrations of nitrate, iron, and arsenic in the Fox, Wolf, Peshtigo, and surrounding watersheds in northeastern Wisconsin. Random forest classification is well suited to describe the nonlinear relationships observed among several explanatory variables and the predicted probabilities of elevated concentrations of nitrate, iron, and arsenic. Maps of the probability of elevated nitrate, iron, and arsenic can be used to assess groundwater vulnerability and the vulnerability of streams to contaminants derived from groundwater. Processes responsible for elevated concentrations are elucidated using partial dependence plots. For example, an increase in the probability of elevated iron and arsenic occurred when well depths coincided with the glacial/bedrock interface, suggesting a bedrock source for these constituents. Furthermore, groundwater in contact with Ordovician bedrock has a higher likelihood of elevated iron concentrations, which supports the hypothesis that groundwater liberates iron from a sulfide-bearing secondary cement horizon of Ordovician age. Application of machine learning techniques to existing compliance monitoring data offers an opportunity to broadly assess aquifer and stream vulnerability at regional and national scales and to better understand geochemical processes responsible for observed conditions.

Identifying the world's most climate change vulnerable species: a systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals.

PubMed

Foden, Wendy B; Butchart, Stuart H M; Stuart, Simon N; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A; Hughes, Adrian F; O'Hanlon, Susannah E; Garnett, Stephen T; Sekercioğlu, Cagan H; Mace, Georgina M

2013-01-01

Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species' biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world's birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608-851 bird (6-9%), 670-933 amphibian (11-15%), and 47-73 coral species (6-9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts.

Identifying the World's Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds, Amphibians and Corals

PubMed Central

Foden, Wendy B.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Stuart, Simon N.; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M.; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D.; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A.; Hughes, Adrian F.; O’Hanlon, Susannah E.; Garnett, Stephen T.; Şekercioğlu, Çagan H.; Mace, Georgina M.

2013-01-01

Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts. PMID:23950785

Science priorities for the human dimensions of global change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

The topics covered include the following: defining research needs; understanding land use change; improving policy analysis -- research on the decision-making process; designing policy instruments and institutions to address energy-related environmental problems; assessing impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation to global changes; and understanding population dynamics and global change.

Older Adults' Perceptions of Nutrition as Protective against Detrimental Effects of Environmental Pollution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dunn, Kristina; Gaetke, Lisa; Stephenson, Tammy; Brewer, Dawn

2017-01-01

The aging process makes older adults vulnerable to the detrimental health effects of environmental contaminants. Our study assessed older adults' perceptions regarding diet as protective against environmental contaminants, levels of concern about exposure to environmental contaminants, and interest in learning about protective food-related…

Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer (Veneto Region, Italy).

PubMed

Cucchi, Franco; Franceschini, Giuliana; Zini, Luca; Aurighi, Marina

2008-09-01

Maps illustrating the different degrees of vulnerability within a given area are integral to environmental protection and management policies. The assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of karst areas is difficult since the type and stage of karst development and the related underground discharge behavior are difficult to determine and quantify. Geographic Information Systems techniques are applied to the evaluation of the vulnerability of an aquifer in the alpine karst area of the Sette Comuni Plateau, in the Veneto Region of northern Italy. The water resources of the studied aquifer are of particular importance to the local communities. This aquifer must therefore be protected from both inappropriate use as well as possible pollution. The SINTACS and SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) vulnerability assessment methods have been utilized here to create the vulnerability map. SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) is an adaptation of the parametric managerial model (SINTACS) to karst hydrostructures. The vulnerability map reveals vast zones (81% of the analyzed areas) with a high degree of vulnerability. The presence of well-developed karst structures in these highly vulnerable areas facilitate water percolation, thereby enhancing the groundwater vulnerability risk. Only 1.5 of the studied aquifer have extremely high-vulnerability levels, however these areas include all of the major springs utilized for human consumption. This vulnerability map of the Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer is an indispensable tool for both the effective management of water resources and as support to environmental planning in the Sette Comuni Plateau area.

Geological hazards, vulnerability, and risk assessment using GIS: model for Glenwood Springs, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mejía-Navarro, Mario; Wohl, Ellen E.; Oaks, Sherry D.

1994-08-01

Glenwood Springs, Colorado, lies at the junction of the Roaring Fork and Colorado Rivers, surrounded by the steep peaks of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Large parts of the region have had intensive sheet erosion, debris flows, and hyperconcentrated floods triggered by landslides and slumps. The latter come from unstable slopes in the many tributary channels on the mountainsides, causing concentration of debris in channels and a large accumulation of sediment in colluvial wedges and debris fans that line the river valleys. Many of the landslide and debris-flow deposits exist in a state resembling suspended animation, ready to be destabilized by intense precipitation and/or seismic activity. During this century urban development in the Roaring Fork River valley has increased rapidly. The city of Glenwood Springs continues to expand over unstable debris fans without any construction of hazard mitigation structures. Since 1900, Glenwood Springs has had at least 21 damaging debris flows and floods; on July 24, 1977 a heavy thunderstorm spread a debris flow over more than 80 ha of the city. This paper presents a method that uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to assess geological hazards, vulnerability, and risk in the Glenwood Springs area. The hazards evaluated include subsidence, rockfall, debris flows, and floods, and in this paper we focus on debris flows and subsidence. Information on topography, hydrology, precipitation, geomorphic processes, bedrock and surficial geology, structural geology, soils, vegetation, and land use, was processed for hazard assessment using a series of algorithms. ARC/INFO and GRASS GIS softwares were used to produce maps and tables in a format accessible to urban planners. After geological hazards were defined for the study area, we estimated the vulnerability ( Ve) of various elements for an event of intensity i. Risk is assessed as a function of hazard and vulnerability. We categorized the study area in 14 classes for planning procedures; 7 classes defined as areas suitable for human settlement, and 7 classes defined as unsuitable for building, and most effectively reserved for parks and forests.

Tsunami vulnerability assessment mapping for the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia using a geographical information system (GIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najihah, R.; Effendi, D. M.; Hairunnisa, M. A.; Masiri, K.

2014-02-01

The catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 raised a number of questions for scientist and politicians on how to deal with the tsunami risk and assessment in coastal regions. This paper discusses the challenges in tsunami vulnerability assessment and presents the result of tsunami disaster mapping and vulnerability assessment study for West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The spatial analysis was carried out using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology to demarcate spatially the tsunami affected village's boundary and suitable disaster management program can be quickly and easily developed. In combination with other thematic maps such as road maps, rail maps, school maps, and topographic map sheets it was possible to plan the accessibility and shelter to the affected people. The tsunami vulnerability map was used to identify the vulnerability of villages/village population to tsunami. In the tsunami vulnerability map, the intensity of the tsunami was classified as hazard zones based on the inundation level in meter (contour). The approach produced a tsunami vulnerability assessment map consists of considering scenarios of plausible extreme, tsunami-generating events, computing the tsunami inundation levels caused by different events and scenarios and estimating the possible range of casualties for computing inundation levels. The study provides an interactive means to identify the tsunami affected areas after the disaster and mapping the tsunami vulnerable village before for planning purpose were the essential exercises for managing future disasters.

Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species’ climate-change vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wade, Alisa A.; Hand, Brian K.; Kovach, Ryan; Luikart, Gordon; Whited, Diane; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

2016-01-01

Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species’ vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. Here, we provide a more comprehensive CCVA approach that incorporates all three elements used for assessing species’ climate change vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We illustrate our approach using case studies of two threatened salmonids with different life histories – anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and non-anadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) – within the Columbia River Basin, USA. We identified general patterns of high vulnerability in low-elevation and southernmost habitats for both species. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the two species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multi-species conservation. Our results highlight how CCVAs should be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework for refining hypotheses, guiding research, and comparing plausible scenarios of species’ vulnerability for ongoing and projected climate change.

THE US EPA'S REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT PROGRAM: A RESEARCH STRATEGY FOR 2001-2006

EPA Science Inventory

The goal of ORD's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program is to develop all
approach to quantifying regional ecological vulnerabilities so that risk management activities can be targeted and prioritized. ReVA's focus is, to develop a set of methods that are applica...

6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.240 Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and... 6 Domestic Security 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability...

6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.240 Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and... 6 Domestic Security 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability...

6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.240 Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and... 6 Domestic Security 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability...

6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.240 Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and... 6 Domestic Security 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability...

Modeling an internal gear pump

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zongbin; Xu, Rongwu; He, Lin; Liao, Jian

2018-05-01

Considering the nature and characteristics of construction waste piles, this paper analyzed the factors affecting the stability of the slope of construction waste piles, and established the system of the assessment indexes for the slope failure risks of construction waste piles. Based on the basic principles and methods of fuzzy mathematics, the factor set and the remark set were established. The membership grade of continuous factor indexes is determined using the "ridge row distribution" function, while that for the discrete factor indexes was determined by the Delphi Method. For the weight of factors, the subjective weight was determined by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and objective weight by the entropy weight method. And the distance function was introduced to determine the combination coefficient. This paper established a fuzzy comprehensive assessment model of slope failure risks of construction waste piles, and assessed pile slopes in the two dimensions of hazard and vulnerability. The root mean square of the hazard assessment result and vulnerability assessment result was the final assessment result. The paper then used a certain construction waste pile slope as the example for analysis, assessed the risks of the four stages of a landfill, verified the assessment model and analyzed the slope's failure risks and preventive measures against a slide.

CALTRANS CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-01-01

The following report was developed for the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) to summarize a vulnerability assessment conducted for assets in Caltrans District 4. The assessment was developed to specifically identify the potential eff...

Psychological vulnerability, burnout, and coping among employees of a business process outsourcing organization

PubMed Central

Machado, Tanya; Sathyanarayanan, Vidya; Bhola, Poornima; Kamath, Kirthi

2013-01-01

Background: The business process outsourcing (BPO) sector is a contemporary work setting in India, with a large and relatively young workforce. There is concern that the demands of the work environment may contribute to stress levels and psychological vulnerability among employees as well as to high attrition levels. Materials and Methods: As part of a larger study, questionnaires were used to assess psychological distress, burnout, and coping strategies in a sample of 1,209 employees of a BPO organization. Results: The analysis indicated that 38% of the sample had significant psychological distress on the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28; Goldberg and Hillier, 1979). The vulnerable groups were women, permanent employees, data processors, and those employed for 6 months or longer. The reported levels of burnout were low and the employees reported a fairly large repertoire of coping behaviors. Conclusions: The study has implications for individual and systemic efforts at employee stress management and workplace prevention approaches. The results point to the emerging and growing role of mental health professionals in the corporate sector. PMID:24459370

The socio-economic dimension of flood risk assessment: insights of KULTURisk framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giupponi, Carlo; Gain, Animesh; Mojtahed, Vahid; Balbi, Stefano

2013-04-01

The approaches for vulnerability and risk assessment have found different and often contrasting solutions by various schools of thought. The two most prominent communities in this field are: climate change adaptation (CCA), and disaster risk reduction (DRR). Although those communities have usually in common the aim of reducing socio-economic vulnerability and risk to natural hazards, they have usually referred to different definitions and conceptualizations. For example, the DRR community has always driven more emphasis on the concept of risk and vulnerability is considered as a physical/environmental input for the quantification of risk, while the CCA research stream, mainly under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), considered vulnerability as an output deriving from social conditions and processes such as adaptation or maladaptation. Recently, with the publication of the IPCC Special Report on extreme events and disasters (IPCC-SREX), the notions of vulnerability and risk are somehow integrated in order to jointly consider both climate change adaptation and disaster risk management. The IPCC-SREX indeed is expected to significantly contribute to find common language and methodological approaches across disciplines and, therefore, the opportunity emerges for proposing new operational solutions, consistent with the most recent evolution of concepts and terminology. Based on the development of the IPCC Report, the KULTURisk project developed an operational framework to support integrated assessment and decision support through the combination of contributions from diverse disciplinary knowledge, with emphasis on the social and economic dimensions. KIRAF (KULTURisk Integrated Risk Assessment Framework) is specifically aimed at comprehensively evaluate the benefits of risk mitigation measures with consideration of the dynamic context deriving from the consideration of climatic changes and their effects on natural disasters, within the policy framework of climate change adaptation (CCA). Three main innovations are proposed with respect to the current state of the art: (1) to include the social capacities of reducing risk, (2) to go beyond the estimation direct tangible costs, and (3) to provide an operational solution for decision support to assess risks, impacts and the benefits of plausible risk reduction measures, compatible with both the DRR and the CCA literatures. As stated above, the proposed framework is the inclusion of social capacities (adaptive and coping capacities) in the process of translating risk into a comprehensive cost matrix considering not only direct tangible costs (damages), but also the three other components deriving from the combination of tangible/intangible and direct/indirect costs. The proposed KIRAF approach is thus expected to provide: 1) an operational basis for multidisciplinary integration; 2) a flexible reference to deal with heterogeneous case studies and potentially various types of hazards; and 3) a means to support the assessment of alternative risk prevention measures including consideration of social and cultural dimensions.

[Assessment of eco-environmental vulnerability of Hainan Island, China].

PubMed

Huang, Bao-rong; Ouyang, Zhi-yun; Zhang, Hui-zhi; Zhang, Li-hua; Zheng, Hua

2009-03-01

Based on the assessment method of environmental vulnerability constructed by SOPAC and UNEP, this paper constructed an indicator system from three sub-themes including hazard, resistance, and damage to assess the eco-environmental vulnerability of Hainan Island. The results showed that Hainan Island was suffering a middling level eco-environmental hazard, and the main hazards came from some intensive human activities such as intensive agriculture, mass tourism, mining, and a mass of solid wastes thrown by islanders and tourists. Some geographical characters such as larger land area, larger altitude range, integrated geographical form, and abundant habitat types endowed Hainan Island higher resistance to environmental hazards. However, disturbed by historical accumulative artificial and natural hazards, the Island ecosystem had showed serious ecological damage, such as soil degradation and biodiversity loss. Comprehensively considered hazard, resistance, damage, and degradation, the comprehensive environmental vulnerability of the Island was at a middling level. Some indicators showed lower vulnerability, but some showed higher vulnerability.

Coastal erosion vulnerability and risk assessment focusing in tourism beach use.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandrakis, George

2016-04-01

It is well established that the global market for tourism services is a key source of economic growth. Especially among Mediterranean countries, the tourism sector is one of the principal sectors driving national economies. With the majority of the mass tourism activities concentrated around coastal areas, coastal erosion, inter alia, poses a significant threat to coastal economies that depend heavily on revenues from tourism. The economic implications of beach erosion were mainly focused in the cost of coastal protection measures, instead of the revenue losses from tourism. For this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and economic activity need to be identified. To achieve this, a joint environmental and economic evaluation approach of the problem can provide a managerial tool to mitigate the impact of beach erosion in tourism, through realistic cost-benefit scenarios for planning alternative protection measures. Such a multipurpose tool needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which relationships can be better understood when distributed and analyzed along the geographical space. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index (BVI) method. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this econometric modelling, Beach Value is related with economic and environmental attributes like, Beach width, distance from the city) of each sector, tourism attributes (Coastal business; Number of hotels; Number of hotel rooms; Room price; Beach attendance). All calculations are implemented in a GIS database, organised in five levels. As case study area for the application of the method is selected Crete Island, while for the small scale four beach tourist destinations in the Island of Crete, with different vulnerabilities. In the small scale vulnerability analysis, the sectors of the beach which are most vulnerable were identified, and risk analysis was made based on the revenue losses. Acknowledgments This work was implemented within the framework of "Post-Doctoral Excellence Scholarship. State Scholarships Foundation, Greece IKY-Siemens Action"

Study on the Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment in Sanjiang Plain in Northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Y.; Tang, W. K.; Liu, C.

2012-12-01

The Sanjiang Plain is located in eastern part of China's Heilongjiang Province.It's total area is 109 000 km2, with cultivated land area being 3.6677 million hm2. It is a major national commodity grain base. Rice planting area in Sanjiang Plain has been increasing year by year. Groundwater exploitation is increasing rapidly as a result of rapid increase of paddy field area. It is necessary to research and analyze spatial diversity of groundwater pollution vulnerability for Sanjiang Plain, so as to fulfill the goal of integrated planning, rational utilization of land and water resource, avoiding or minimizing groundwater contamination, and protecting grain security of China. Based on the commonly used DRASTIC method internationally, and according to hydrogeology, land use and other characteristics of Sanjiang Plain, this paper establishes groundwater vulnerability assessment index system. Since the Sanjiang Plain is an area that gives priority to agriculture, and impact of agricultural land and agricultural activity on groundwater vulnerability can not be ignored. Two indicators of agricultural land use rate (L) and population density (P) are increased in the DRASTC index system, the remaining 5 indicators are groundwater depth (D), aquifer net recharge(R), aquifer media type (A), soil type(S), aquifer hydraulic conductivity (C). Taking ArcGis as a calculation analysis platform to assess groundwater vulnerability of the Sanjiang Plain, by using hierarchical analysis method of the fuzzy mathematics method to calculate each index weigh of evaluation vulnerability. This paper applies 6 levels of assessment standard as follows: vulnerability index DI <2 stands for not vulnerable; 2 8 stands for extremely vulnerable. Groundwater vulnerably contaminated area is delineated based on the groundwater vulnerability spatial distribution of Sanjiang Plain. Reasonable land use plan should be made, and strictly groundwater protection measures should be taken to reduce the risk of groundwater contamination.

Climate change vulnerability for species-Assessing the assessments.

PubMed

Wheatley, Christopher J; Beale, Colin M; Bradbury, Richard B; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Critchlow, Rob; Thomas, Chris D

2017-09-01

Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhiqiang; Jiang, Jingyi; Ma, Qing

2016-12-01

Climate change is affecting every aspect of human activities, especially the agriculture. In China, extreme drought events caused by climate change have posed a great threat to food safety. In this work we aimed to study the drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment. The physical vulnerability curve was constructed from the relationship between drought hazard intensity index and yield loss rate. The risk assessment of agricultural drought was conducted from the drought hazard intensity index and physical vulnerability curve. The probability distribution of drought hazard intensity index decreased from south-west to north-east and increased from south-east to north-west along the rainfall isoline. The physical vulnerability curve had a reduction effect in three parts of the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China, which helped to reduce drought hazard vulnerability on spring maize. The risk of yield loss ratio calculated based on physical vulnerability curve was lower compared with the drought hazard intensity index, which suggested that the capacity of spring maize to resist and adapt to drought is increasing. In conclusion, the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China is greatly sensitive to climate change and has a high probability of severe drought hazard. Risk assessment of physical vulnerability can help better understand the physical vulnerability to agricultural drought and can also promote measurements to adapt to climate change.

Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability at the Local Level: A Case Study on the Dniester River Basin (Moldova)

PubMed Central

Sîrodoev, Igor; Koeppel, Sonja; Denisov, Nickolai; Sîrodoev, Ghennadi

2013-01-01

Vulnerability to climate change of the Moldavian part of the Dniester river was assessed as the function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of its basin's natural and socioeconomic systems. As a spatial “scale” of the assessment, Moldova's administrative-territorial units (ATUs) were selected. The exposure assessment was based on the climatic analysis of baseline (1971–2000) temperature and precipitation and projections of their changes in 2021–2050, separately for cold and warm periods. The sensitivity assessment included physiographical and socioeconomic characteristics, described by a set of specific indicators. The adaptive capacity was expressed by general economic and agricultural indicators, taking into consideration the medical provision and housing conditions. Through a ranking approach, the relative vulnerability of each ATU was calculated by summing its sensitivity and adaptive capacity ranks; the latter were obtained as combinations of their primary indicator ranks, arranged in an increasing and decreasing order, respectively. Due to lack of sound knowledge on these components' importance in overall assessment of vulnerability, their weights were taken as conventionally equal. Mapping of vulnerability revealed that ATUs neighboring to municipalities are the most vulnerable and need special attention in climate change adaptation. The basin's “hotspots” were discussed with public participation. PMID:23766677

An allometric approach to quantify the extinction vulnerability of birds and mammals.

PubMed

Hilbers, J P; Schipper, A M; Hendriks, A J; Verones, F; Pereira, H M; Huijbregts, M A J

2016-03-01

Methods to quantify the vulnerability of species to extinction are typically limited by the availability of species-specific input data pertaining to life-history characteristics and population dynamics. This lack of data hampers global biodiversity assessments and conservation planning. Here, we developed a new framework that systematically quantifies extinction risk based on allometric relationships between various wildlife demographic parameters and body size. These allometric relationships have a solid theoretical and ecological foundation. Extinction risk indicators included are (1) the probability of extinction, (2) the mean time to extinction, and (3) the critical patch size. We applied our framework to assess the global extinction vulnerability of terrestrial carnivorous and non-carnivorous birds and mammals. Irrespective of the indicator used, large-bodied species were found to be more vulnerable to extinction than their smaller counterparts. The patterns with body size were confirmed for all species groups by a comparison with IUCN data on the proportion of extant threatened species: the models correctly predicted a multimodal distribution with body size for carnivorous birds and a monotonic distribution for mammals and non-carnivorous birds. Carnivorous mammals were found to have higher extinction risks than non-carnivores, while birds were more prone to extinction than mammals. These results are explained by the allometric relationships, predicting the vulnerable species groups to have lower intrinsic population growth rates, smaller population sizes, lower carrying capacities, or larger dispersal distances, which, in turn, increase the importance of losses due to environmental stochastic effects and dispersal activities. Our study is the first to integrate population viability analysis and allometry into a novel, process-based framework that is able to quantify extinction risk of a large number of species without requiring data-intensive, species-specific information. The framework facilitates the estimation of extinction vulnerabilities of data-deficient species. It may be applied to forecast extinction vulnerability in response to a changing environment, by incorporating quantitative relationships between wildlife demographic parameters and environmental drivers like habitat alteration, climate change, or hunting.

A vulnerability assessment of 300 species in Florida: threats from sea level rise, land use, and climate change.

PubMed

Reece, Joshua Steven; Noss, Reed F; Oetting, Jon; Hoctor, Tom; Volk, Michael

2013-01-01

Species face many threats, including accelerated climate change, sea level rise, and conversion and degradation of habitat from human land uses. Vulnerability assessments and prioritization protocols have been proposed to assess these threats, often in combination with information such as species rarity; ecological, evolutionary or economic value; and likelihood of success. Nevertheless, few vulnerability assessments or prioritization protocols simultaneously account for multiple threats or conservation values. We applied a novel vulnerability assessment tool, the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value, to assess the conservation priority of 300 species of plants and animals in Florida given projections of climate change, human land-use patterns, and sea level rise by the year 2100. We account for multiple sources of uncertainty and prioritize species under five different systems of value, ranging from a primary emphasis on vulnerability to threats to an emphasis on metrics of conservation value such as phylogenetic distinctiveness. Our results reveal remarkable consistency in the prioritization of species across different conservation value systems. Species of high priority include the Miami blue butterfly (Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri), Key tree cactus (Pilosocereus robinii), Florida duskywing butterfly (Ephyriades brunnea floridensis), and Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium). We also identify sources of uncertainty and the types of life history information consistently missing across taxonomic groups. This study characterizes the vulnerabilities to major threats of a broad swath of Florida's biodiversity and provides a system for prioritizing conservation efforts that is quantitative, flexible, and free from hidden value judgments.

V-DRASTIC: Using visualization to engage policymakers in groundwater vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bojórquez-Tapia, Luis A.; Cruz-Bello, Gustavo M.; Luna-González, Laura; Juárez, Lourdes; Ortiz-Pérez, Mario A.

2009-06-01

SummaryGroundwater vulnerability mapping is increasingly being used to design aquifer protection and management strategies. This paper presents a dynamic visualization method to groundwater vulnerability mapping. This method—called V-DRASTIC—extends the capacities of DRASTIC, an overlay/index technique that has been applied worldwide to evaluate the condition of hydrogeological factors and determine groundwater vulnerability at regional scales. V-DRASTIC is based upon psychophysics' principles (a theory that describes the people's response to a stimulus) to generate alternative groundwater vulnerability categorization schemes. These are used as inputs in a fuzzy pattern recognition procedure to enable planners, decision makers and stakeholders identify which scheme conveys meaningful information regarding groundwater vulnerability across a territory. V-DRASTIC was applied in the groundwater vulnerability assessment of two urban watersheds in Mexico.

REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION: EVALUATION OF INTEGRATION METHODS AND ASSESSMENTS RESULTS

EPA Science Inventory

This report describes methods for quantitative regional assessment developed by the Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program. The goal of ReVA is to develop regional-scale assessments of the magnitude, extent, distribution, and uncertainty of current and anticipated envir...

Improving satellite vulnerability assessment to untrackable orbital debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welty, Nathan; Schaefer, Frank; Rudolph, Martin; Destefanis, Roberto; Grassi, Lilith

2012-07-01

The projected growth in the untrackable orbital debris population will place an increased emphasis on satellite vulnerability assessments during both design and mission operations. This study presents an enhanced method for assessing satellite vulnerability to untrackable orbital debris that expands on traditional practices. By looking beyond structural penetration of the spacecraft, the method predicts the survivability of individual components and the associated degradation of system functionality resulting from untrackable debris impacts. A new risk assessment tool, the Particle Impact Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Tool (PIRAT), has been developed based on this method and is also presented here. It interfaces with both the NASA ORDEM2000 and ESA MASTER-2009 debris models and has been validated against the benchmark test cases from the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This study concludes with an example vulnerability assessment using PIRAT for a generic Earth observation satellite in a Sun-synchronous low-Earth orbit. The results illustrate the additional insight provided by this method that can be used to improve the robustness of future satellite designs and mitigate the overall mission risk posed by untrackable orbital debris.

Improving the Usability of Integrated Assessment for Adaptation Practice: Insights from the U.S. Southeast Energy Sector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

de Bremond, Ariane; Preston, Benjamin; Rice, Jennie S.

2014-10-01

Energy systems comprise a key sector of the U.S. economy, and one that has been identified as potentially vulnerable to the effects of climate variability and change. However, understanding of adaptation processes in energy companies and private entities more broadly is limited. It is unclear, for example, the extent to which energy companies are well-served by existing knowledge and tools emerging from the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities and/or what experiments, analyses, and model results have practical utility for informing adaptation in the energy sector. As part of a regional IAM development project, wemore » investigated available evidence of adaptation processes in the energy sector, with a particular emphasis on the U.S. Southeast and Gulf Coast region. A mixed methods approach of literature review and semi-structured interviews with key informants from energy utilities was used to compare existing knowledge from the IAV community with that of regional stakeholders. That comparison revealed that much of the IAV literature on the energy sector is climate-centric and therefore disconnected from the more integrated decision-making processes and institutional perspectives of energy utilities. Increasing the relevance of research and assessment for the energy sector will necessitate a greater investment in integrated assessment and modeling efforts that respond to practical decision-making needs as well as greater collaboration between energy utilities and researchers in the design, execution, and communication of those efforts.« less

An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

PubMed

Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

2016-11-11

Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.

2014-11-01

Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.

Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia

Treesearch

Binita KC; J. Marshall Shepherd; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

2015-01-01

Climate change is occurring in the Southeastern United States, and one manifestation is changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events. A vulnerability assessment is performed in the state of Georgia (United States) at the county level from 1975 to 2012 in decadal increments. Climate change vulnerability is typically measured as a function of exposure to physical...

76 FR 8361 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Submission to OMB for Review and Approval; Comment...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-14

... community water system serving a population of more than 3,300 people to conduct a vulnerability assessment... of the vulnerability assessment. These requirements are mandatory under the statute. EPA will use the information collected under this ICR to determine whether community water systems have conducted vulnerability...

Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment for Hospital Buildings Using a Gis-Based Group Multi Criteria Decision Making Approach: a Case Study of Tehran, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delavar, M. R.; Moradi, M.; Moshiri, B.

2015-12-01

Nowadays, urban areas are threatened by a number of natural hazards such as flood, landslide and earthquake. They can cause huge damages to buildings and human beings which necessitates disaster mitigation and preparation. One of the most important steps in disaster management is to understand all impacts and effects of disaster on urban facilities. Given that hospitals take care of vulnerable people reaction of hospital buildings against earthquake is vital. In this research, the vulnerability of hospital buildings against earthquake is analysed. The vulnerability of buildings is related to a number of criteria including age of building, number of floors, the quality of materials and intensity of the earthquake. Therefore, the problem of seismic vulnerability assessment is a multi-criteria assessment problem and multi criteria decision making methods can be used to address the problem. In this paper a group multi criteria decision making model is applied because using only one expert's judgments can cause biased vulnerability maps. Sugeno integral which is able to take into account the interaction among criteria is employed to assess the vulnerability degree of buildings. Fuzzy capacities which are similar to layer weights in weighted linear averaging operator are calculated using particle swarm optimization. Then, calculated fuzzy capacities are included into the model to compute a vulnerability degree for each hospital.

Groundwater vulnerability assessment for the Banyas Catchment of the Syrian coastal area using GIS and the RISKE method.

PubMed

Kattaa, Bassam; Al-Fares, Walid; Al Charideh, Abdul Rahman

2010-05-01

Vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are more susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic sources has become an important element for sensible resource management and landuse planning. This contribution aims at estimating aquifer vulnerability by applying the RISKE model in Banyas Catchment Area (BCA), Tartous Prefecture, west Syria. An additional objective is to demonstrate the combined use of the RISKE model and a geographical information system (GIS) as an effective method for groundwater pollution risk assessment. The RISKE model uses five environmental parameters (Rock of aquifer media, Infiltration, Soil media, Karst, and Epikarst) to characterize the hydro-geological setting and evaluate aquifer vulnerability. The elevated eastern and low western part of the study area was dominated by high vulnerability classes, while the middle part was characterized by moderate vulnerability classes. Based on the vulnerability analysis, it was found that 2% and 39% of BCA is under low and high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively, while more than 52% and 5% of the area of BCA can be designated as an area of moderate and very high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively. The GIS technique has provided an efficient environment for analyses and high capabilities of handling a large amount of spatial data. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Kiribati

PubMed Central

McIver, Lachlan; Woodward, Alistair; Davies, Seren; Tibwe, Tebikau; Iddings, Steven

2014-01-01

Kiribati—a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation—is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health. PMID:24830452

Ecosystem Vulnerability Review: Proposal of an Interdisciplinary Ecosystem Assessment Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weißhuhn, Peter; Müller, Felix; Wiggering, Hubert

2018-06-01

To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem's vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of ScienceTM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review.

Ecosystem Vulnerability Review: Proposal of an Interdisciplinary Ecosystem Assessment Approach.

PubMed

Weißhuhn, Peter; Müller, Felix; Wiggering, Hubert

2018-06-01

To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem's vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of Science TM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review.

Hydrologic vulnerability of tribal reservation lands across the U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, C., Jr.; Leibowitz, S. G.; Sawicz, K. A.; Comeleo, R. L.; Stratton, L. E.

2017-12-01

We apply the hydrologic landscapes (HL) concept to assess the hydrologic vulnerability to climate of the United States (U.S.) with special emphasis on tribal lands. The basic assumption of the HL approach is that catchments that share similar physical and climatic characteristics are expected to have similar hydrologic characteristics. We map climate vulnerability by integrating a retrospective analysis of historical climate and hydrology into the HL approach, comparing this baseline of variability with future projections of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, climatic moisture, surplus water, and seasonality of the water surplus. Projections that are not within two standard deviations of the historical decadal average contribute to the vulnerability index for each metric. This allows stakeholders and/or water resource managers to understand the potential impacts of future conditions. The resulting vulnerability maps show that temperature and potential evapotranspiration are consistently projected to have high vulnerability indices across the U.S. including all tribal reservations. Precipitation vulnerability is not as spatially-uniform as temperature. Most areas with snow are projected to experience significant changes in future snow accumulation. The seasonality vulnerability map shows that mountainous areas in the West are most prone to changes in seasonality. This paper illustrates how the HL approach can help assess climatic and hydrologic vulnerability for disadvantaged groups across the U.S. By combining the HL concept and climate vulnerability analyses, we provide an approach that can assist tribal resource managers to perform vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans, which is a major priority for the tribes nationwide.

Vulnerability assessment including tangible and intangible components in the index composition: An Amazon case study of flooding and flash flooding.

PubMed

Andrade, Milena Marília Nogueira de; Szlafsztein, Claudio Fabian

2018-07-15

The vulnerability of cities and communities in the Amazon to flooding and flash flooding is increasing. The effects of extreme events on populations vary across landscapes, causing vulnerability to differ spatially. Traditional vulnerability studies in Brazil and across the world have used the vulnerability index for the country and, more recently, municipality scales. The vulnerability dimensions are exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. For each of these dimensions, there is a group of indicators that constitutes a vulnerability index using quantitative data. Several vulnerability assessments have used sensitivity and exposure analyses and, recently, adaptive capacity has been considered. The Geographical Information Systems (GIS) analysis allows spatial regional modeling using quantitative vulnerability indicators. This paper presents a local-scale vulnerability assessment in an urban Amazonian area, Santarém City, using interdisciplinary methods. Data for exposure and sensitivity were gathered by remote sensing and census data, respectively. However, adaptive capacity refers to local capacities, whether infrastructural or not, and the latter were gathered by qualitative participatory methods. For the mixed data used to study adaptive capacity, we consider tangible components for countable infrastructure that can cope with hazards, and intangible components that reflect social activities based on risk perceptions and collective action. The results indicate that over 80% of the area is highly or moderately vulnerable to flooding and flash flooding. Exposure and adaptive capacity were determinants of the results. Lower values of adaptive capacity play a significant role in vulnerability enhancement. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A preliminary analysis of quantifying computer security vulnerability data in "the wild"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farris, Katheryn A.; McNamara, Sean R.; Goldstein, Adam; Cybenko, George

2016-05-01

A system of computers, networks and software has some level of vulnerability exposure that puts it at risk to criminal hackers. Presently, most vulnerability research uses data from software vendors, and the National Vulnerability Database (NVD). We propose an alternative path forward through grounding our analysis in data from the operational information security community, i.e. vulnerability data from "the wild". In this paper, we propose a vulnerability data parsing algorithm and an in-depth univariate and multivariate analysis of the vulnerability arrival and deletion process (also referred to as the vulnerability birth-death process). We find that vulnerability arrivals are best characterized by the log-normal distribution and vulnerability deletions are best characterized by the exponential distribution. These distributions can serve as prior probabilities for future Bayesian analysis. We also find that over 22% of the deleted vulnerability data have a rate of zero, and that the arrival vulnerability data is always greater than zero. Finally, we quantify and visualize the dependencies between vulnerability arrivals and deletions through a bivariate scatterplot and statistical observations.

Assessment of physical vulnerability of buildings and analysis of landslide risk at the municipal scale: application to the Loures municipality, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillard-Gonçalves, C.; Zêzere, J. L.; Pereira, S.; Garcia, R. A. C.

2016-02-01

This study offers a semi-quantitative assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings to landslides in a Portuguese municipality (Loures), as well as the quantitative landslide risk analysis computed as the product of the landslide hazard by the vulnerability and the economic value of the buildings. The hazard was assessed by combining the spatiotemporal probability and the frequency-magnitude relationship of the landslides. The physical vulnerability assessment was based on an inquiry of a pool of European landslide experts and a sub-pool of landslide experts who know the study area, and the answers' variability was assessed with standard deviation. The average vulnerability of the basic geographic entities was compared by changing the map unit and applying the vulnerability to all the buildings of a test site, the inventory of which was listed on the field. The economic value was calculated using an adaptation of the Portuguese Tax Services approach, and the risk was computed for different landslide magnitudes and different spatiotemporal probabilities. As a rule, the vulnerability values given by the sub-pool of experts who know the study area are higher than those given by the European experts, namely for the high-magnitude landslides. The obtained vulnerabilities vary from 0.2 to 1 as a function of the structural building types and the landslide magnitude, and are maximal for 10 and 20 m landslide depths. However, the highest risk was found for the landslides that are 3 m deep, because these landslides combine a relatively high frequency in the Loures municipality with a substantial potential damage.

Policies and Processes for Social Inclusion: Using EquiFrame and EquIPP for Policy Dialogue Comment on "Are Sexual and Reproductive Health Policies Designed for All? Vulnerable Groups in Policy Documents of Four European Countries and Their Involvement in Policy Development".

PubMed

MacLachlan, Malcolm; Mannan, Hasheem; Huss, Tessy; Munthali, Alister; Amin, Mutamad

2015-11-16

The application of EquiFrame in the analysis of sexual and reproductive health policies by Ivanova et al to a new thematic area, their selection of only some of the Core Concepts of human rights in health service provision and the addition of new vulnerable groups relevant to the purpose of their analysis, are all very welcome developments. We also applaud their application of EquiFrame to policies in countries where it has not previously been used, along with their use of interviews with policy-makers to produce a deeper understanding of policy processes. We argue that clear justification for the inclusion of additional, or replacement of some exiting vulnerable groups within EquiFrame should be accompanied by clear definitions of such groups, along with the evidence-base that justifies their classification as a vulnerable or marginalised group. To illustrate the versatility of EquiFrame, we summarise a range of ways in which it has been used across a number of regions; including a brief Case Study of its use to develop the National Health Policy of Malawi. While EquiFrame focuses on policy content, we preview a new policy analysis tool - Equity and Inclusion in Policy Processes (EquIPP) - which assesses the extent of equity and inclusion in broader policy processes. Together, EquiFrame and EquIPP can be used to help governments and civil society ensure that policies are addressing the much stronger emphasis on social inclusion, now apparent in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

Ecosystem dynamics and disturbance in mountain wildernesses: assessing vulnerability of natural resources to change

Treesearch

Daniel B. Fagre; David L. Peterson

2000-01-01

An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and extensive field studies at Glacier and Olympic National Parks has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability and disturbance. Models have successfully estimated snow distribution, annual watershed discharge, and stream temperature variation based on seven years of monitoring. Various...

Vulnerability assessment of urban ecosystems driven by water resources, human health and atmospheric environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Zhang, Yang; Song, Xinshuang; He, Li

2016-05-01

As ecosystem management is a hotspot and urgent topic with increasing population growth and resource depletion. This paper develops an urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment method representing a new vulnerability paradigm for decision makers and environmental managers, as it's an early warning system to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes in terms of natural, human, economic and social elements. The whole idea is to decompose a complex problem into sub-problem, and analyze each sub-problem, and then aggregate all sub-problems to solve this problem. This method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators, and socio-economic elements. Decision makers can find out relevant urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitude. To test the potential of the vulnerability methodology, it has been applied to a case study area in Beijing, China, where it proved to be reliable and consistent with the Beijing City Master Plan. The results of urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment can support decision makers in evaluating the necessary of taking specific measures to preserve the quality of human health and environmental stressors for a city or multiple cities, with identifying the implications and consequences of their decisions.

The Future of Risk Analysis: Operationalizing Living Vulnerability Assessments from the Cloud to the Street (and Back)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tellman, B.; Schwarz, B.; Kuhn, C.; Pandey, B.; Schank, C.; Sullivan, J.; Mahtta, R.; Hammet, L.

2016-12-01

21 million people are exposed to flooding every year, and that number is expected to more than double by 2030 due to climate, land use, and demographic change. Cloud to Street, a mission driven science organization, is working to make big and real time data more meaningful to understand both biophysical and social vulnerability to flooding in this changing world. This talk will showcase the science and practice we have built of integrated social and biophysical flood vulnerability assessments based on our work in Uttarakhand, India and Senegal, in conjunction with nonprofits and development banks. We will show developments of our global historical flood database, detected from MODIS and Landsat satellites, used to power machine learning flood exposure models in Google Earth Engine's API. Demonstrating the approach, we will also showcase new approaches in social vulnerability science, from developing data-driven social vulnerability indices in India, to deriving predictive models that explain the social conditions that lead to disproportionate flood damage and fatality in the US. While this talk will draw on examples of completed vulnerability assessments, we will also discuss the possible future for place-based "living" flood vulnerability assessments that are updated each time satellites circle the earth or people add crowd-sourced observations about flood events and social conditions.

Vulnerability assessment of atmospheric environment driven by human impacts.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Ding, Feng; Li, Yu; He, Li

2016-11-15

Atmospheric environment quality worsening is a substantial threat to public health worldwide, and in many places, air pollution due to the intensification of the human activity is increasing dramatically. However, no studies have been investigated the integration of vulnerability assessment and atmospheric environment driven by human impacts. The objective of this study was to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes as an early warning system for environment managers and decision makers in term of human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements. We conduct a vulnerability assessment method of atmospheric environment associated with human impact, this method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators under the Exposure-Sensitivity- Adaptive Capacity (ESA) framework. Decision makers can find out relevant vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitudes. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China, we further applied this developed method and proved it to be reliable and consistent with the China Environmental Status Bulletin. Results indicate that the vulnerability of atmospheric environment in the BTH region is not optimistic, and environment managers should do more about air pollution. Thus, the most appropriate strategic decision and development program of city or state can be picked out assisting by the vulnerable results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assess and Adapt: Coordinated Ecoregional Forest Vulnerability Assessments Covering the Upper Midwest and Northeast in Support of Climate-informed Decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swanston, C.; Janowiak, M.; Handler, S.; Butler, P.; Brandt, L.; Iverson, L.; Thompson, F.; Ontl, T.; Shannon, D.

2016-12-01

Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessments are rapidly becoming an integral component of forest management planning, in which there is increasing public expectation that even near-term activities explicitly incorporate information about anticipated climate impacts and risks. There is a clear desire among forest managers for targeted assessments that address critical questions about species and ecosystem vulnerabilities while delivering this information in an accessible format. We developed the Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment Approach (EVAA), which combines multiple quantitative models, expert elicitation from scientists and land managers, and a templated report structure oriented to natural resource managers. The report structure includes relevant information on the contemporary landscape, past climate, future climate projections, impact model results, and a transparent vulnerability assessment of species and ecosystems. We have used EVAA in seven ecoregional assessments covering 246 million acres of forestland across the upper Midwest and Northeast (www.forestadaptation.org; five published, two in review). We convened a panel of local forest ecology and management experts in each assessment area to examine projected climate effects on system drivers, stressors, and dominant species, as well as the current adaptive capacity of the major ecoregional forest ecosystems. The panels provided a qualitative assessment of the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change over the next century. Over 130 authors from dozens of organizations collaborated on these peer-reviewed assessment publications, which are delivered to thousands of stakeholders through live and recorded webinars, online briefs, and in-person trainings and seminars. The assessments are designed to be used with the Adaptation Workbook (www.adaptationworkbook.org), a planning tool that works at multiple scales and has generated more than 200 real-world forest adaptation demonstration projects.

A System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species (SAVS) to Climate Change

Treesearch

Karen E. Bagne; Megan M. Friggens; Deborah M. Finch

2011-01-01

Sustained conservation of species requires integration of future climate change effects, but few tools exist to assist managers. The System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species (SAVS) identifies the relative vulnerability or resilience of vertebrate species to climate change. Designed for managers, the SAVS is an easily applied tool that uses a questionnaire of 22...

Addressing uncertainty in vulnerability assessments [Chapter 5

Treesearch

Linda Joyce; Molly Cross; Evan Girvatz

2011-01-01

This chapter addresses issues and approaches for dealing with uncertainty specifically within the context of conducting climate change vulnerability assessments (i.e., uncertainties related to identifying and modeling the sensitivities, levels of exposure, and adaptive capacity of the assessment targets).

A Vulnerability Assessment of 300 Species in Florida: Threats from Sea Level Rise, Land Use, and Climate Change

PubMed Central

Reece, Joshua Steven; Noss, Reed F.; Oetting, Jon; Hoctor, Tom; Volk, Michael

2013-01-01

Species face many threats, including accelerated climate change, sea level rise, and conversion and degradation of habitat from human land uses. Vulnerability assessments and prioritization protocols have been proposed to assess these threats, often in combination with information such as species rarity; ecological, evolutionary or economic value; and likelihood of success. Nevertheless, few vulnerability assessments or prioritization protocols simultaneously account for multiple threats or conservation values. We applied a novel vulnerability assessment tool, the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value, to assess the conservation priority of 300 species of plants and animals in Florida given projections of climate change, human land-use patterns, and sea level rise by the year 2100. We account for multiple sources of uncertainty and prioritize species under five different systems of value, ranging from a primary emphasis on vulnerability to threats to an emphasis on metrics of conservation value such as phylogenetic distinctiveness. Our results reveal remarkable consistency in the prioritization of species across different conservation value systems. Species of high priority include the Miami blue butterfly (Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri), Key tree cactus (Pilosocereus robinii), Florida duskywing butterfly (Ephyriades brunnea floridensis), and Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium). We also identify sources of uncertainty and the types of life history information consistently missing across taxonomic groups. This study characterizes the vulnerabilities to major threats of a broad swath of Florida’s biodiversity and provides a system for prioritizing conservation efforts that is quantitative, flexible, and free from hidden value judgments. PMID:24260447

A New Paradigm for Assessing the Role of Agriculture in the Climate System and in Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pielke, Roger A., Sr.; Adegoke, Jimmy O.; Chase, Thomas N.; Marshall, Curtis H.; Matsui, Toshihisa; Niyogi, Dev

2007-01-01

This paper discusses the diverse climate forcings that impact agricultural systems, and contrasts the current paradigm of using global models downscaled to agricultural areas (a top-down approach) with a new paradigm that first assesses the vulnerability of agricultural activities to the spectrum of environmental risk including climate (a bottom-up approach). To illustrate the wide spectrum of climate forcings, regional climate forcings are presented including land-use/land-cover change and the influence of aerosols on radiative and biogeochemical fluxes and cloud/precipitation processes, as well as how these effects can be teleconnected globally. Examples are presented of the vulnerability perspective, along with a small survey of the perceived drought impacts in a local area, in which a wide range of impacts for the same precipitation deficits are found. This example illustrates why agricultural assessments of risk to climate change and variability and of other environmental risks should start with a bottom-up perspective.

Assessing the social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda.

PubMed

Bizimana, Jean-Pierre; Twarabamenye, Emmanuel; Kienberger, Stefan

2015-01-07

Since 2004, malaria interventions in Rwanda have resulted in substantial decline of malaria incidence. However, this achievement is fragile as potentials for local malaria transmissions remain. The risk of getting malaria infection is partially explained by social conditions of vulnerable populations. Since vulnerability to malaria is both influenced by social and environmental factors, its complexity cannot be measured by a single value. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to apply a composite indicator approach for assessing social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda. This assessment informs the decision-makers in targeting malaria interventions and allocating limited resources to reduce malaria burden in Rwanda. A literature review was used to conceptualize the social vulnerability to malaria and to select the appropriate vulnerability indicators. Indicators used in the index creation were classified into susceptibility and lack of resilience vulnerability domains. The main steps followed include selection of indicators and datasets, imputation of missing values, descriptive statistics, normalization and weighting of indicators, local sensitivity analysis and indicators aggregation. Correlation analysis helped to empirically evidence the association between the indicators and malaria incidence. The high values of social vulnerability to malaria are found in Gicumbi, Rusizi, Nyaruguru and Gisagara, and low values in Muhanga, Nyarugenge, Kicukiro and Nyanza. The most influential susceptibility indicators to increase malaria are population change (r = 0.729), average number of persons per bedroom (r = 0.531), number of households affected by droughts and famines (r = 0.591), and area used for irrigation (r = 0.611). The bed net ownership (r = -0.398) and poor housing wall materials (0.378) are the lack of resilience indicators that significantly correlate with malaria incidence. The developed composite index social vulnerability to malaria indicates which indicators need to be addressed and in which districts. The results from this study are salient for public health policy- and decision makers in malaria control in Rwanda and timely support the national integrated malaria initiative. Future research development should focus on spatial explicit vulnerability assessment by combining environmental and social drivers to achieve an integrated and complete assessment of vulnerability to malaria.

Assessment of physical vulnerability of buildings and analysis of landslide risk at the municipal scale - application to the Loures municipality, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillard-Gonçalves, C.; Zêzere, J. L.; Pereira, S.; Garcia, R. A. C.

2015-09-01

This study offers a semi-quantitative assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings to landslides in the Loures municipality, as well as an analysis of the landslide risk computed as the product of the vulnerability by the economic value of the buildings and by the landslide hazard. The physical vulnerability assessment, which was based on a questionnaire sent to a pool of Portuguese and European researchers, and the assessment of the subjectivity of their answers are innovative contributions of this work. The generalization of the vulnerability to the smallest statistical subsection was validated by changing the map unit and applying the vulnerability to all the buildings of a test site (approximately 800 buildings), which were inventoried during fieldwork. The economic value of the buildings of the Loures municipality was calculated using an adaptation of the Portuguese Tax Services formula. The hazard was assessed by combining the susceptibility of the slopes, the spatio-temporal probability and the frequency-magnitude relationship of the landslide. Finally, the risk was mapped for different landslide magnitudes and different spatio-temporal probabilities. The highest landslide risk was found for the landslide with a depth of 3 m in the landslide body, and a height of 1m in the landslide foot.

Assessment of vulnerability zones for ground water pollution using GIS-DRASTIC-EC model: A field-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anantha Rao, D.; Naik, Pradeep K.; Jain, Sunil K.; Vinod Kumar, K.; Dhanamjaya Rao, E. N.

2018-06-01

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to pollution is an essential pre-requisite for better planning of an area. We present the groundwater vulnerability assessment in parts of the Yamuna Nagar District, Haryana State, India in an area of about 800 km2, considered to be a freshwater zone in the foothills of the Siwalik Hill Ranges. Such areas in the Lower Himalayas form good groundwater recharge zones, and should always be free from contamination. But, the administration has been trying to promote industrialization along these foothill zones without actually assessing the environmental consequences such activities may invite in the future. GIS-DRASTIC model has been used with field based data inputs for studying the vulnerability assessment. But, we find that inclusion electrical conductivity (EC) as a model parameter makes it more robust. Therefore, we rename it as GIS-DRASTIC-EC model. The model identifies three vulnerability zones such as low, moderate and high with an areal extent of 5%, 80% and 15%, respectively. On the basis of major chemical parameters alone, the groundwater in the foothill zones apparently looks safe, but analysis with the help of GIS-DRASTIC-EC model gives a better perspective of the groundwater quality in terms of identifying the vulnerable areas.

Beyond Vulnerability Assessment: Impact of Developments toward Local Adaptive Capacity in Kemijen City Village, Semarang City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayanimitta, M. E.; Puspasari, D. A.; Widyahantari, R.; Kristina, D.; Ratnaningtyas, T.; Setionurjaya, A.; Anindita, Y. A.

2018-02-01

Vulnerability Assessment is usually used for assessing the ability of an area on facing disaster. In previous studies, the study of Vulnerability Assessment applied only quantitative method to show the vulnerability level. Therefore, this study attempts to add information reviews using qualitative method. Kemijen City Village is one of the administrative areas in the northern part of Semarang City affected by climate change. The residents have to adapt it by renovating and elevating their houses and other infrastructures to avoid floods. There are some development programs held by government, NGOs, and corporations such as Banger Polder Development, PLPBK, etc. It is interesting to know how big the vulnerability level of Kemijen on facing flood disasters, then how the projects can affect local adaptive capacity. To answer it, this research uses mixed-method approach. Vulnerability Assessment uses quantitative method by scoring indicators of Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity, while the development impact uses qualitative method. The data were collected through interviews and FGD conducted in Joint Studio Course between Diponegoro University and University of Hawaii in October 2016. Non-physical programs such as community empowerment have more positive impacts on local adaptive capacity in Kemijen. Community participation is important for environmental sustainability that can not be done in a short time to educate the people.

Instability risk assessment of construction waste pile slope based on fuzzy entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Yong; Xing, Huige; Yang, Mao; Nie, Tingting

2018-05-01

Considering the nature and characteristics of construction waste piles, this paper analyzed the factors affecting the stability of the slope of construction waste piles, and established the system of the assessment indexes for the slope failure risks of construction waste piles. Based on the basic principles and methods of fuzzy mathematics, the factor set and the remark set were established. The membership grade of continuous factor indexes is determined using the "ridge row distribution" function, while that for the discrete factor indexes was determined by the Delphi Method. For the weight of factors, the subjective weight was determined by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and objective weight by the entropy weight method. And the distance function was introduced to determine the combination coefficient. This paper established a fuzzy comprehensive assessment model of slope failure risks of construction waste piles, and assessed pile slopes in the two dimensions of hazard and vulnerability. The root mean square of the hazard assessment result and vulnerability assessment result was the final assessment result. The paper then used a certain construction waste pile slope as the example for analysis, assessed the risks of the four stages of a landfill, verified the assessment model and analyzed the slope's failure risks and preventive measures against a slide.

Spatial econometric model of natural disaster impacts on human migration in vulnerable regions of Mexico.

PubMed

Saldaña-Zorrilla, Sergio O; Sandberg, Krister

2009-10-01

Mexico's vast human and environmental diversity offers an initial framework for comprehending some of the prevailing great disparities between rich and poor. Its socio-economic constructed vulnerability to climatic events serves to expand this understanding. Based on a spatial econometric model, this paper tests the contribution of natural disasters to stimulating the emigration process in vulnerable regions of Mexico. Besides coping and adaptive capacity, it assesses the effects of economic losses due to disasters as well as the adverse production and trade conditions of the 1990s on emigration rates in 2000 at the municipality level. Weather-related disasters were responsible for approximately 80 per cent of economic losses in Mexico between 1980 and 2005, mostly in the agricultural sector, which continues to dominate many parts of the country. It is dramatic that this sector generates around only four per cent of gross domestic product but provides a livelihood to about one-quarter of the national population. It is no wonder, therefore, that most emigration from this country arises in vulnerable rural areas.

Chemical facility vulnerability assessment project.

PubMed

Jaeger, Calvin D

2003-11-14

Sandia National Laboratories, under the direction of the Office of Science and Technology, National Institute of Justice, conducted the chemical facility vulnerability assessment (CFVA) project. The primary objective of this project was to develop, test and validate a vulnerability assessment methodology (VAM) for determining the security of chemical facilities against terrorist or criminal attacks (VAM-CF). The project also included a report to the Department of Justice for Congress that in addition to describing the VAM-CF also addressed general observations related to security practices, threats and risks at chemical facilities and chemical transport. In the development of the VAM-CF Sandia leveraged the experience gained from the use and development of VAs in other areas and the input from the chemical industry and Federal agencies. The VAM-CF is a systematic, risk-based approach where risk is a function of the severity of consequences of an undesired event, the attack potential, and the likelihood of adversary success in causing the undesired event. For the purpose of the VAM-CF analyses Risk is a function of S, L(A), and L(AS), where S is the severity of consequence of an event, L(A) is the attack potential and L(AS) likelihood of adversary success in causing a catastrophic event. The VAM-CF consists of 13 basic steps. It involves an initial screening step, which helps to identify and prioritize facilities for further analysis. This step is similar to the prioritization approach developed by the American Chemistry Council (ACC). Other steps help to determine the components of the risk equation and ultimately the risk. The VAM-CF process involves identifying the hazardous chemicals and processes at a chemical facility. It helps chemical facilities to focus their attention on the most critical areas. The VAM-CF is not a quantitative analysis but, rather, compares relative security risks. If the risks are deemed too high, recommendations are developed for measures to reduce the risk. This paper will briefly discuss the CFVA project and VAM-CF process.

Assessment of Yellow Fever Epidemic Risk: An Original Multi-criteria Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Briand, Sylvie; Beresniak, Ariel; Nguyen, Tim; Yonli, Tajoua; Duru, Gerard; Kambire, Chantal; Perea, William

2009-01-01

Background Yellow fever (YF) virtually disappeared in francophone West African countries as a result of YF mass vaccination campaigns carried out between 1940 and 1953. However, because of the failure to continue mass vaccination campaigns, a resurgence of the deadly disease in many African countries began in the early 1980s. We developed an original modeling approach to assess YF epidemic risk (vulnerability) and to prioritize the populations to be vaccinated. Methods and Findings We chose a two-step assessment of vulnerability at district level consisting of a quantitative and qualitative assessment per country. Quantitative assessment starts with data collection on six risk factors: five risk factors associated with “exposure” to virus/vector and one with “susceptibility” of a district to YF epidemics. The multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) modeling method was specifically adapted to reduce the five exposure variables to one aggregated exposure indicator. Health districts were then projected onto a two-dimensional graph to define different levels of vulnerability. Districts are presented on risk maps for qualitative analysis in consensus groups, allowing the addition of factors, such as population migrations or vector density, that could not be included in MCA. The example of rural districts in Burkina Faso show five distinct clusters of risk profiles. Based on this assessment, 32 of 55 districts comprising over 7 million people were prioritized for preventive vaccination campaigns. Conclusion This assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk at the district level includes MCA modeling and consensus group modification. MCA provides a standardized way to reduce complexity. It supports an informed public health decision-making process that empowers local stakeholders through the consensus group. This original approach can be applied to any disease with documented risk factors. PMID:19597548

Assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk: an original multi-criteria modeling approach.

PubMed

Briand, Sylvie; Beresniak, Ariel; Nguyen, Tim; Yonli, Tajoua; Duru, Gerard; Kambire, Chantal; Perea, William

2009-07-14

Yellow fever (YF) virtually disappeared in francophone West African countries as a result of YF mass vaccination campaigns carried out between 1940 and 1953. However, because of the failure to continue mass vaccination campaigns, a resurgence of the deadly disease in many African countries began in the early 1980s. We developed an original modeling approach to assess YF epidemic risk (vulnerability) and to prioritize the populations to be vaccinated. We chose a two-step assessment of vulnerability at district level consisting of a quantitative and qualitative assessment per country. Quantitative assessment starts with data collection on six risk factors: five risk factors associated with "exposure" to virus/vector and one with "susceptibility" of a district to YF epidemics. The multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) modeling method was specifically adapted to reduce the five exposure variables to one aggregated exposure indicator. Health districts were then projected onto a two-dimensional graph to define different levels of vulnerability. Districts are presented on risk maps for qualitative analysis in consensus groups, allowing the addition of factors, such as population migrations or vector density, that could not be included in MCA. The example of rural districts in Burkina Faso show five distinct clusters of risk profiles. Based on this assessment, 32 of 55 districts comprising over 7 million people were prioritized for preventive vaccination campaigns. This assessment of yellow fever epidemic risk at the district level includes MCA modeling and consensus group modification. MCA provides a standardized way to reduce complexity. It supports an informed public health decision-making process that empowers local stakeholders through the consensus group. This original approach can be applied to any disease with documented risk factors.

Stochastic landslide vulnerability modeling in space and time in a part of the northern Himalayas, India.

PubMed

Das, Iswar; Kumar, Gaurav; Stein, Alfred; Bagchi, Arunabha; Dadhwal, Vinay K

2011-07-01

Little is known about the quantitative vulnerability analysis to landslides as not many attempts have been made to assess it comprehensively. This study assesses the spatio-temporal vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides in a stochastic framework. The study includes buildings, persons inside buildings, and traffic as elements at risk to landslides. Building vulnerability is the expected damage and depends on the position of a building with respect to the landslide hazard at a given time. Population and vehicle vulnerability are the expected death toll in a building and vehicle damage in space and time respectively. The study was carried out in a road corridor in the Indian Himalayas that is highly susceptible to landslides. Results showed that 26% of the buildings fall in the high and very high vulnerability categories. Population vulnerability inside buildings showed a value >0.75 during 0800 to 1000 hours and 1600 to 1800 hours in more buildings that other times of the day. It was also observed in the study region that the vulnerability of vehicle is above 0.6 in half of the road stretches during 0800 hours to 1000 hours and 1600 to 1800 hours due to high traffic density on the road section. From this study, we conclude that the vulnerability of an element at risk to landslide is a space and time event, and can be quantified using stochastic modeling. Therefore, the stochastic vulnerability modeling forms the basis for a quantitative landslide risk analysis and assessment.

BROAD-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF WETLAND VULNERABILITY USING GIS AND LANDSCAPE-ECOLOGICAL METRICS

EPA Science Inventory

Landscape-ecological indicators of ecosystem integrity are increasingly being sought for use in habitat suitability assessments, habitat vulnerability assessments, and as a means to set goals for restoration projects. We utilized currently available information from the Arkansas...

Risk assessment for tephra dispersal and sedimentation: the example of four Icelandic volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biass, Sebastien; Scaini, Chiara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Smith, Kate; Folch, Arnau; Höskuldsson, Armann; Galderisi, Adriana

2014-05-01

In order to assist the elaboration of proactive measures for the management of future Icelandic volcanic eruptions, we developed a new approach to assess the impact associated with tephra dispersal and sedimentation at various scales and for multiple sources. Target volcanoes are Hekla, Katla, Eyjafjallajökull and Askja, selected for their high probabilities of eruption and/or their high potential impact. We combined stratigraphic studies, probabilistic strategies and numerical modelling to develop comprehensive eruption scenarios and compile hazard maps for local ground deposition and regional atmospheric concentration using both TEPHRA2 and FALL3D models. New algorithms for the identification of comprehensive probability density functions of eruptive source parameters were developed for both short and long-lasting activity scenarios. A vulnerability assessment of socioeconomic and territorial aspects was also performed at both national and continental scales. The identification of relevant vulnerability indicators allowed for the identification of the most critical areas and territorial nodes. At a national scale, the vulnerability of economic activities and the accessibility to critical infrastructures was assessed. At a continental scale, we assessed the vulnerability of the main airline routes and airports. Resulting impact and risk were finally assessed by combining hazard and vulnerability analysis.

Optimization of DRASTIC method by supervised committee machine artificial intelligence to assess groundwater vulnerability for Maragheh-Bonab plain aquifer, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fijani, Elham; Nadiri, Ata Allah; Asghari Moghaddam, Asghar; Tsai, Frank T.-C.; Dixon, Barnali

2013-10-01

Contamination of wells with nitrate-N (NO3-N) poses various threats to human health. Contamination of groundwater is a complex process and full of uncertainty in regional scale. Development of an integrative vulnerability assessment methodology can be useful to effectively manage (including prioritization of limited resource allocation to monitor high risk areas) and protect this valuable freshwater source. This study introduces a supervised committee machine with artificial intelligence (SCMAI) model to improve the DRASTIC method for groundwater vulnerability assessment for the Maragheh-Bonab plain aquifer in Iran. Four different AI models are considered in the SCMAI model, whose input is the DRASTIC parameters. The SCMAI model improves the committee machine artificial intelligence (CMAI) model by replacing the linear combination in the CMAI with a nonlinear supervised ANN framework. To calibrate the AI models, NO3-N concentration data are divided in two datasets for the training and validation purposes. The target value of the AI models in the training step is the corrected vulnerability indices that relate to the first NO3-N concentration dataset. After model training, the AI models are verified by the second NO3-N concentration dataset. The results show that the four AI models are able to improve the DRASTIC method. Since the best AI model performance is not dominant, the SCMAI model is considered to combine the advantages of individual AI models to achieve the optimal performance. The SCMAI method re-predicts the groundwater vulnerability based on the different AI model prediction values. The results show that the SCMAI outperforms individual AI models and committee machine with artificial intelligence (CMAI) model. The SCMAI model ensures that no water well with high NO3-N levels would be classified as low risk and vice versa. The study concludes that the SCMAI model is an effective model to improve the DRASTIC model and provides a confident estimate of the pollution risk.

Sustainable Sourcing of Global Agricultural Raw Materials: Assessing Gaps in Key Impact and Vulnerability Issues and Indicators

PubMed Central

Springer, Nathaniel P.; Garbach, Kelly; Guillozet, Kathleen; Haden, Van R.; Hedao, Prashant; Hollander, Allan D.; Huber, Patrick R.; Ingersoll, Christina; Langner, Megan; Lipari, Genevieve; Mohammadi, Yaser; Musker, Ruthie; Piatto, Marina; Riggle, Courtney; Schweisguth, Melissa; Sin, Emily; Snider, Sara; Vidic, Nataša; White, Aubrey; Brodt, Sonja; Quinn, James F.; Tomich, Thomas P.

2015-01-01

Understanding how to source agricultural raw materials sustainably is challenging in today’s globalized food system given the variety of issues to be considered and the multitude of suggested indicators for representing these issues. Furthermore, stakeholders in the global food system both impact these issues and are themselves vulnerable to these issues, an important duality that is often implied but not explicitly described. The attention given to these issues and conceptual frameworks varies greatly—depending largely on the stakeholder perspective—as does the set of indicators developed to measure them. To better structure these complex relationships and assess any gaps, we collate a comprehensive list of sustainability issues and a database of sustainability indicators to represent them. To assure a breadth of inclusion, the issues are pulled from the following three perspectives: major global sustainability assessments, sustainability communications from global food companies, and conceptual frameworks of sustainable livelihoods from academic publications. These terms are integrated across perspectives using a common vocabulary, classified by their relevance to impacts and vulnerabilities, and categorized into groups by economic, environmental, physical, human, social, and political characteristics. These issues are then associated with over 2,000 sustainability indicators gathered from existing sources. A gap analysis is then performed to determine if particular issues and issue groups are over or underrepresented. This process results in 44 “integrated” issues—24 impact issues and 36 vulnerability issues —that are composed of 318 “component” issues. The gap analysis shows that although every integrated issue is mentioned at least 40% of the time across perspectives, no issue is mentioned more than 70% of the time. A few issues infrequently mentioned across perspectives also have relatively few indicators available to fully represent them. Issues in the impact framework generally have fewer gaps than those in the vulnerability framework. PMID:26065899

Selecting process quality indicators for the integrated care of vulnerable older adults affected by cognitive impairment or dementia.

PubMed

Kröger, Edeltraut; Tourigny, André; Morin, Diane; Côté, Lise; Kergoat, Marie-Jeanne; Lebel, Paule; Robichaud, Line; Imbeault, Shirley; Proulx, Solange; Benounissa, Zohra

2007-11-29

This study aimed at evaluating face and content validity, feasibility and reliability of process quality indicators developed previously in the United States or other countries. The indicators can be used to evaluate care and services for vulnerable older adults affected by cognitive impairment or dementia within an integrated service system in Quebec, Canada. A total of 33 clinical experts from three major urban centres in Quebec formed a panel representing two medical specialties (family medicine, geriatrics) and seven health or social services specialties (nursing, occupational therapy, psychology, neuropsychology, pharmacy, nutrition, social work), from primary or secondary levels of care, including long-term care. A modified version of the RAND(R)/University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) appropriateness method, a two-round Delphi panel, was used to assess face and content validity of process quality indicators. The appropriateness of indicators was evaluated according to a) agreement of the panel with three criteria, defined as a median rating of 7-9 on a nine-point rating scale, and b) agreement among panellists, judged by the statistical measure of the interpercentile range adjusted for symmetry. Feasibility of quality assessment and reliability of appropriate indicators were then evaluated within a pilot study on 29 patients affected by cognitive impairment or dementia. For measurable indicators the inter-observer reliability was calculated with the Kappa statistic. Initially, 82 indicators for care of vulnerable older adults with cognitive impairment or dementia were submitted to the panellists. Of those, 72 (88%) were accepted after two rounds. Among 29 patients for whom medical files of the preceding two years were evaluated, 63 (88%) of these indicators were considered applicable at least once, for at least one patient. Only 22 indicators were considered applicable at least once for ten or more out of 29 patients. Four indicators could be measured with the help of a validated questionnaire on patient satisfaction. Inter-observer reliability was moderate (Kappa = 0.57). A multidisciplinary panel of experts judged a large majority of the initial indicators valid for use in integrated care systems for vulnerable older adults in Quebec, Canada. Most of these indicators can be measured using patient files or patient or caregiver interviews and reliability of assessment from patient-files is moderate.

Selecting process quality indicators for the integrated care of vulnerable older adults affected by cognitive impairment or dementia

PubMed Central

Kröger, Edeltraut; Tourigny, André; Morin, Diane; Côté, Lise; Kergoat, Marie-Jeanne; Lebel, Paule; Robichaud, Line; Imbeault, Shirley; Proulx, Solange; Benounissa, Zohra

2007-01-01

Background This study aimed at evaluating face and content validity, feasibility and reliability of process quality indicators developed previously in the United States or other countries. The indicators can be used to evaluate care and services for vulnerable older adults affected by cognitive impairment or dementia within an integrated service system in Quebec, Canada. Methods A total of 33 clinical experts from three major urban centres in Quebec formed a panel representing two medical specialties (family medicine, geriatrics) and seven health or social services specialties (nursing, occupational therapy, psychology, neuropsychology, pharmacy, nutrition, social work), from primary or secondary levels of care, including long-term care. A modified version of the RAND®/University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) appropriateness method, a two-round Delphi panel, was used to assess face and content validity of process quality indicators. The appropriateness of indicators was evaluated according to a) agreement of the panel with three criteria, defined as a median rating of 7–9 on a nine-point rating scale, and b) agreement among panellists, judged by the statistical measure of the interpercentile range adjusted for symmetry. Feasibility of quality assessment and reliability of appropriate indicators were then evaluated within a pilot study on 29 patients affected by cognitive impairment or dementia. For measurable indicators the inter-observer reliability was calculated with the Kappa statistic. Results Initially, 82 indicators for care of vulnerable older adults with cognitive impairment or dementia were submitted to the panellists. Of those, 72 (88%) were accepted after two rounds. Among 29 patients for whom medical files of the preceding two years were evaluated, 63 (88%) of these indicators were considered applicable at least once, for at least one patient. Only 22 indicators were considered applicable at least once for ten or more out of 29 patients. Four indicators could be measured with the help of a validated questionnaire on patient satisfaction. Inter-observer reliability was moderate (Kappa = 0.57). Conclusion A multidisciplinary panel of experts judged a large majority of the initial indicators valid for use in integrated care systems for vulnerable older adults in Quebec, Canada. Most of these indicators can be measured using patient files or patient or caregiver interviews and reliability of assessment from patient-files is moderate. PMID:18047668

Security risk assessment: applying the concepts of fuzzy logic.

PubMed

Bajpai, Shailendra; Sachdeva, Anish; Gupta, J P

2010-01-15

Chemical process industries (CPI) handling hazardous chemicals in bulk can be attractive targets for deliberate adversarial actions by terrorists, criminals and disgruntled employees. It is therefore imperative to have comprehensive security risk management programme including effective security risk assessment techniques. In an earlier work, it has been shown that security risk assessment can be done by conducting threat and vulnerability analysis or by developing Security Risk Factor Table (SRFT). HAZOP type vulnerability assessment sheets can be developed that are scenario based. In SRFT model, important security risk bearing factors such as location, ownership, visibility, inventory, etc., have been used. In this paper, the earlier developed SRFT model has been modified using the concepts of fuzzy logic. In the modified SRFT model, two linguistic fuzzy scales (three-point and four-point) are devised based on trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Human subjectivity of different experts associated with previous SRFT model is tackled by mapping their scores to the newly devised fuzzy scale. Finally, the fuzzy score thus obtained is defuzzyfied to get the results. A test case of a refinery is used to explain the method and compared with the earlier work.

National Cancer Institute Patient Navigation Research Program: methods, protocol, and measures.

PubMed

Freund, Karen M; Battaglia, Tracy A; Calhoun, Elizabeth; Dudley, Donald J; Fiscella, Kevin; Paskett, Electra; Raich, Peter C; Roetzheim, Richard G

2008-12-15

Patient, provider, and systems barriers contribute to delays in cancer care, a lower quality of care, and poorer outcomes in vulnerable populations, including low-income, underinsured, and racial/ethnic minority populations. Patient navigation is emerging as an intervention to address this problem, but navigation requires a clear definition and a rigorous testing of its effectiveness. Pilot programs have provided some evidence of benefit, but have been limited by evaluation of single-site interventions and varying definitions of navigation. To overcome these limitations, a 9-site National Cancer Institute Patient Navigation Research Program (PNRP) was initiated. The PNRP is charged with designing, implementing, and evaluating a generalizable patient navigation program targeting vulnerable populations. Through a formal committee structure, the PNRP has developed a definition of patient navigation and metrics to assess the process and outcomes of patient navigation in diverse settings, compared with concurrent continuous control groups. The PNRP defines patient navigation as support and guidance offered to vulnerable persons with abnormal cancer screening or a cancer diagnosis, with the goal of overcoming barriers to timely, quality care. Primary outcomes of the PNRP are 1) time to diagnostic resolution; 2) time to initiation of cancer treatment; 3) patient satisfaction with care; and 4) cost effectiveness, for breast, cervical, colon/rectum, and/or prostate cancer. The metrics to assess the processes and outcomes of patient navigation have been developed for the NCI-sponsored PNRP. If the metrics are found to be valid and reliable, they may prove useful to other investigators.

Network Vulnerability Assessment of the U.S. Crude Pipeline Infrastructure

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

56 Clanton, “Oklahoma Oil Hub Helps Keep Oil Prices from Going Higher.” 57 Donald Furgeson, John Mahoney , and Brett Warfield...Vulnerability Assessment Matrix of the COTH.58 58 Furgeson, Mahoney , and Warfield, Security...Steinhäusler et al., “Security Risks to the Oil and Gas Industry: Terrorist Capabilities.” 71 Furgeson, Mahoney , and Warfield, Security Vulnerability

6 CFR 27.255 - Recordkeeping requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... audit required under § 27.225(e)) or Security Vulnerability Assessment, a record of the audit, including... retain records of submitted Top-Screens, Security Vulnerability Assessments, Site Security Plans, and all...

Groundwater pollution risk assessment. Application to different carbonate aquifers in south Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez Madrid, A.; Martinez Navarrete, C.; Carrasco Cantos, F.

2009-04-01

Water protection has been considered one of the most important environmental goals in the European politics since the 2000/60/CE Water Framework Directive came into force in 2000, and more specifically in 2006 with the 2006/118/CE Directive on groundwater protection. As one of the necessary requirements to tackle groundwater protection, a pollution risk assessment has been made through the analysis of both the existing hazard human activities map and the intrinsic aquifer vulnerability map, by applying the methodologies proposed by COST Action 620 in an experimental study site in south Spain containing different carbonated aquifers, which supply 8 towns ranging from 2000 to 2500 inhabitants. In order to generate both maps it was necessary to make a field inventory over a 1:10000 topographic base map, followed by Geographic Information System (GIS) processing. The outcome maps show a clear spatial distribution of both pollution risk and intrinsic vulnerability of the carbonated aquifers studied. As a final result, a map of the intensity of groundwater pollution risk is presented, representing and important base for the development of a proper methodology for the protection of groundwater resources for human consumption protection. Keywords. Hazard, Vulnerability, Risk, SIG, Protection

Assessing intrinsic and specific vulnerability models ability to indicate groundwater vulnerability to groups of similar pesticides: A comparative study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Douglas, Steven; Dixon, Barnali; Griffin, Dale W.

2018-01-01

With continued population growth and increasing use of fresh groundwater resources, protection of this valuable resource is critical. A cost effective means to assess risk of groundwater contamination potential will provide a useful tool to protect these resources. Integrating geospatial methods offers a means to quantify the risk of contaminant potential in cost effective and spatially explicit ways. This research was designed to compare the ability of intrinsic (DRASTIC) and specific (Attenuation Factor; AF) vulnerability models to indicate groundwater vulnerability areas by comparing model results to the presence of pesticides from groundwater sample datasets. A logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between the environmental variables and the presence or absence of pesticides within regions of varying vulnerability. According to the DRASTIC model, more than 20% of the study area is very highly vulnerable. Approximately 30% is very highly vulnerable according to the AF model. When groundwater concentrations of individual pesticides were compared to model predictions, the results were mixed. Model predictability improved when concentrations of the group of similar pesticides were compared to model results. Compared to the DRASTIC model, the AF model more accurately predicts the distribution of the number of contaminated wells within each vulnerability class.

Social vulnerability to climate change in primary producers: A typology approach

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Adaptation in agro-ecological systems will be important for moderating the impacts of climate change. Vulnerability assessments provide the basis for developing strategies to reduce social vulnerability and plan for climate adaptation. Primary industries have been identified as the most vulnerable i...

[Vulnerability assessment of eco-environment in Yimeng mountainous area of Shandong Province based on SRP conceptual model].

PubMed

Liu, Zheng-jia; Yu, Xing-xiu; Li, Lei; Huang, Mei

2011-08-01

Based on the ecological sensitivity-resilience-pressure (SRP) conceptual model, and selecting 13 indices including landscape diversity index, soil erosion, and elevation, etc. , the vulnerability of the eco-environment in Yimeng mountainous area of Shandong Province was assessed under the support of GIS and by using principal component analysis and hierarchy analytical method. According to the eco-environmental vulnerability index (EVI) values, the eco-environment vulnerability of study area was classified into 5 levels, i.e., slight (<1.8), light (1.8-2.8), moderate (2.8-3.5), heavy (3.5-4.0), and extreme vulnerability (>4.0). In the study area, moderately vulnerable area occupied 43.3% of the total, while the slightly, lightly, heavily, and extremely vulnerable areas occupied 6.1%, 33.8%, 15.9%, and 0.9%, respectively. The heavily and extremely vulnerable areas mainly located in the topographically complicated hilly area or the hill-plain ecotone with frequent human activities.

Emerging Technology Update Intravascular Photoacoustic Imaging of Vulnerable Atherosclerotic Plaque.

PubMed

Wu, Min; Fw van der Steen, Antonius; Regar, Evelyn; van Soest, Gijs

2016-10-01

The identification of vulnerable atherosclerotic plaques in the coronary arteries is emerging as an important tool for guiding atherosclerosis diagnosis and interventions. Assessment of plaque vulnerability requires knowledge of both the structure and composition of the plaque. Intravascular photoacoustic (IVPA) imaging is able to show the morphology and composition of atherosclerotic plaque. With imminent improvements in IVPA imaging, it is becoming possible to assess human coronary artery disease in vivo . Although some challenges remain, IVPA imaging is on its way to being a powerful tool for visualising coronary atherosclerotic features that have been specifically associated with plaque vulnerability and clinical syndromes, and thus such imaging might become valuable for clinical risk assessment in the catheterisation laboratory.

Prioritising watersheds on the basis of regional flood susceptibility and vulnerability in mountainous areas through the use of indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelis, Carolina; Werner, Micha

2013-04-01

Settlements in peri-urban areas of many cities in mountainous areas such as in the Andes are susceptible to hazards such as flash floods and debris flows. Additionally these settlements are in many cases informal and thus vulnerable to such hazards, resulting in significant risk. Such watersheds are often quiet small, and generally there is little or no information from gauges to help characterise risk. To help identify watersheds in which flood management measures are to be targeted, a rapid assessment of risk is required. In this paper a novel approach is presented where indicators of susceptibility and vulnerability to flash floods were used to prioritize 106 mountain watersheds in Bogotá (Colombia). Variables recognized in literature to determine the dominant processes both in susceptibility and vulnerability to flash floods were used to construct the indicators. Susceptibility was considered to increase with flashiness and the possibility of debris flow events occurring. This was assessed through the use of an indicator composed of a morphometric indicator and a land use indicator. The former was constructed using morphological variables recognized in literature to significantly influence flashiness and occurrence of debris flows; the latter was constructed in terms of percentage of vegetation cover, urban area and bare soil. The morphometric indicator was compared with the results of a debris flow propagation algorithm to assess its capacity in indentifying the morphological conditions of a watershed that make it able to transport debris flows. Propagation was carried out through the use of the Modified Single Flow Direction algorithm, following previous identification of source areas by applying thresholds identified in the area-slope curve of the watersheds and empirical thresholds. Results show that the morphometric variables can be grouped in four categories: size, shape, hypsometry and energy, with the energy the component found to best explain the capability of the watershed to transport debris flows. The combination of the morphometric and land use indicators resulted in a susceptibility indicator that was compared with the available records of past floods in the area. This showed that the use of the land use indicator significantly improves the susceptibility assessment. Vulnerability was assessed in terms of indicators representing physical exposure, fragility of the socio-economic system and lack of resilience to cope and recover. Principal component analysis was subsequently applied to reduce variables and provide a representation of each of their facets by a component. This resulted in a composite indicator of susceptibility and vulnerability for each of the 106 watersheds. The indicator was compared with the history of flash flood damage in the watersheds. Results show that the indicator is useful in applications at regional scales for preliminary assessment to differentiate at spatial level the degree of flood susceptibility and vulnerability. This provides an initial and qualitative risk outlook in the study area and can be used for planning and prioritization of further more detailed studies.

REGIONAL VULNERABILITY: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

EPA Science Inventory

Regional vulnerability assessment, or ReVA, is an approach to place-based ecological risk assessment that is currently under development by the Office of Research and Development of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The assessment is done at the scale of EPA region...

EPA'S REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT PROGRAM: TOOLS TO FACILITATE REGIONAL TO LOCAL DECISION-MAKING

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program is developing and testing approaches to conducting comparative environmental risk assessments at the regional scale, considering impacts to ecological human, and fiscal health endpoints. It seeks an objective and quantifiable...

Linking local vulnerability to climatic hazard damage assessment for integrated river basin management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, Hung-Chih; Liu, Yi-Chung; Chien, Sung-Ying

2015-04-01

1. Background Major portions of areas in Asia are expected to increase exposure and vulnerability to climate change and weather extremes due to rapid urbanization and overdevelopment in hazard-prone areas. To prepare and confront the potential impacts of climate change and related hazard risk, many countries have implemented programs of integrated river basin management. This has led to an impending challenge for the police-makers in many developing countries to build effective mechanism to assess how the vulnerability distributes over river basins, and to understand how the local vulnerability links to climatic (climate-related) hazard damages and risks. However, the related studies have received relatively little attention. This study aims to examine whether geographic localities characterized by high vulnerability experience significantly more damages owing to onset weather extreme events at the river basin level, and to explain what vulnerability factors influence these damages or losses. 2. Methods and data An indicator-based assessment framework is constructed with the goal of identifying composite indicators (including exposure, biophysical, socioeconomic, land-use and adaptive capacity factors) that could serve as proxies for attributes of local vulnerability. This framework is applied by combining geographical information system (GIS) techniques with multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to evaluate and map integrated vulnerability to climatic hazards across river basins. Furthermore, to explain the relationship between vulnerability factors and disaster damages, we develop a disaster damage model (DDM) based on existing disaster impact theory. We then synthesize a Zero-Inflated Poisson regression model with a Tobit regression analysis to identify and examine how the disaster impacts and vulnerability factors connect to typhoon disaster damages and losses. To illustrate the proposed methodology, the study collects data on the vulnerability attributes of the Kaoping, Tsengwen, and Taimali River basins in southern Taiwan, and on the disaster impacts and damages in these river basins due to Typhoon Morakot in 2009. The data was offered by the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan, as well as collected from the National Land Use Investigation, official census statistics and questionnaire surveys. 3. Results We use an MCDA to create a composite vulnerability index, and this index is incorporated into a GIS analysis to demonstrate the results of integrated vulnerability assessment throughout the river basins. Results of the vulnerability assessment indicate that the most vulnerable areas are almost all situated in the regions of middle and upper reaches of the river basins. Through the examining of DDM, it shows that the vulnerability factors play a critical role in determining disaster damages. Findings also present that the losses and casualties caused by Typhoon Morakot increase with elevation, urban and agricultural developments, proximity to rivers, and decrease with levels of income and adaptive capacity. Finally, we propose the adaptive options for minimizing vulnerability and risk, as well as for integrated river basin governance.

An assessment of streamflow vulnerability to climate using ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Identifying regions with similar hydrology is useful for assessing water quality and quantity across the U.S., especially areas that are difficult or costly to monitor. For example, hydrologic landscapes (HLs) have been used to map streamflow variability and assess the spatial distribution of climatic response in Oregon, Alaska, and the Pacific Northwest. HLs have also been applied to assess historic and projected climatic impacts across the Western U.S. In this project, we summarized (1) the HL classification methodology and (2) the utility of using HLs as a tool to classify the vulnerability of streams to climatic changes in the Western U.S. During the HL classification process, we analyzed climate, seasonality, aquifer permeability, terrain, and soil permeability as the primary hydrologic drivers (and precipitation intensity as a secondary driver) associated with large scale hydrologic processes (storage, conveyance, and flow of water into or out of the watershed) in the West. We derived the dominant hydrologic pathways (surface runoff or deep or shallow groundwater) from the HL classification of different catchments to test our hypotheses: 1) Changes in climate will have greater impacts on streamflow in catchments dominated by surface runoff. 2) Catchments historically fed by surface runoff from winter snowmelt in the spring will experience greater impact if precipitation falls as rain instead of snow. We calculated S* (precipitation surplus, which includes

Multicriteria Decision Framework for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment and Management.

PubMed

Ganin, Alexander A; Quach, Phuoc; Panwar, Mahesh; Collier, Zachary A; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Marchese, Dayton; Linkov, Igor

2017-09-05

Risk assessors and managers face many difficult challenges related to novel cyber systems. Among these challenges are the constantly changing nature of cyber systems caused by technical advances, their distribution across the physical, information, and sociocognitive domains, and the complex network structures often including thousands of nodes. Here, we review probabilistic and risk-based decision-making techniques applied to cyber systems and conclude that existing approaches typically do not address all components of the risk assessment triplet (threat, vulnerability, consequence) and lack the ability to integrate across multiple domains of cyber systems to provide guidance for enhancing cybersecurity. We present a decision-analysis-based approach that quantifies threat, vulnerability, and consequences through a set of criteria designed to assess the overall utility of cybersecurity management alternatives. The proposed framework bridges the gap between risk assessment and risk management, allowing an analyst to ensure a structured and transparent process of selecting risk management alternatives. The use of this technique is illustrated for a hypothetical, but realistic, case study exemplifying the process of evaluating and ranking five cybersecurity enhancement strategies. The approach presented does not necessarily eliminate biases and subjectivity necessary for selecting countermeasures, but provides justifiable methods for selecting risk management actions consistent with stakeholder and decisionmaker values and technical data. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the U.S.A.

Novel method of vulnerability assessment of simple landfills area using the multimedia, multipathway and multireceptor risk assessment (3MRA) model, China.

PubMed

Yuan, Ying; He, Xiao-Song; Xi, Bei-Dou; Wei, Zi-Min; Tan, Wen-Bing; Gao, Ru-Tai

2016-11-01

Vulnerability assessment of simple landfills was conducted using the multimedia, multipathway and multireceptor risk assessment (3MRA) model for the first time in China. The minimum safe threshold of six contaminants (benzene, arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)], divalent mercury [Hg(II)] and divalent nickel [Ni(II)]) in landfill and waste pile models were calculated by the 3MRA model. Furthermore, the vulnerability indexes of the six contaminants were predicted based on the model calculation. The results showed that the order of health risk vulnerability index was As > Hg(II) > Cr(VI) > benzene > Cd > Ni(II) in the landfill model, whereas the ecology risk vulnerability index was in the order of As > Hg(II) > Cr(VI) > Cd > benzene > Ni(II). In the waste pile model, the order of health risk vulnerability index was benzene > Hg(II) > Cr(VI) > As > Cd and Ni(II), whereas the ecology risk vulnerability index was in the order of Hg(II) > Cd > Cr(VI) > As > benzene > Ni(II). These results indicated that As, Hg(II) and Cr(VI) were the high risk contaminants for the case of a simple landfill in China; the concentration of these in soil and groundwater around the simple landfill should be strictly monitored, and proper mediation is also recommended for simple landfills with a high concentration of contaminants. © The Author(s) 2016.

The vulnerable plaque: the real villain in acute coronary syndromes.

PubMed

Liang, Michael; Puri, Aniket; Devlin, Gerard

2011-01-01

The term "vulnerable plaque" refers to a vascular lesion that is prone to rupture and may result in life-threatening events which include myocardial infarction. It consists of thin-cap fibroatheroma and a large lipid core which is highly thrombogenic. Acute coronary syndromes often result from rupture of vulnerable plaques which frequently are only moderately stenosed and not visible by conventional angiography. Several invasive and non-invasive strategies have been developed to assess the burden of vulnerable plaques. Intravascular ultrasound provides a two-dimensional cross-sectional image of the arterial wall and can help assess the plaque burden and composition. Optical coherent tomography offers superior resolution over intravascular ultrasound. High-resolution magnetic resonance imaging provides non-invasive imaging for visualizing fibrous cap thickness and rupture in plaques. In addition, it may be of value in assessing the effects of treatments, such as lipid-lowering therapy. Technical issues however limit its clinical applicability. The role of multi-slice computed tomography, a well established screening tool for coronary artery disease, remains to be determined. Fractional flow reserve (FFR) may provide physiological functional assessment of plaque vulnerability; however, its role in the management of vulnerable plaque requires further studies. Treatment of the vulnerable patient may involve systemic therapy which currently include statins, ACE inhibitors, beta-blockers, aspirin, and calcium-channel blockers and in the future local therapeutic options such as drug-eluting stents or photodynamic therapy.

Addressing Issues for Land Change Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braimoh, Ademola; Huang, He Qing

2009-09-01

Workshop on Vulnerability and Resilience of Land Systems in Asia; Beijing, China, 15-17 June 2009; There is a growing international community of scholars who work within the interdisciplinary field of land change science, a scientific domain that seeks to understand the dynamics of the land system as a coupled human-environment system. A coupled human-environment system is one in which the social and biophysical subsystems are intertwined so that the system's condition and responses to external forcing are based on the synergy of the two subsystems. Research on land system vulnerability, defined as a function of exposure and sensitivity to natural and anthropogenic perturbations, such as climate variability and sudden changes in macroeconomic conditions and the ability to cope with the impacts of those perturbations, is a fundamental component of land change science. To address issues related to land system vulnerability, the Global Land Project (GLP; http://www.glp-beijing.org.cn/index.php and http://www.glp.hokudai.ac.jp) brought together an interdisciplinary group of researchers with backgrounds ranging from environmental to social sciences. Participants came from both developed and developing countries. The workshop sought to (1) improve knowledge of the causal processes that affect a system's vulnerability and capacity to cope with different perturbations and (2) identify factors that hinder the integration of vulnerability assessment into policies and decision making.

Fuzzy Decision Analysis for Integrated Environmental Vulnerability Assessment of the Mid-Atlantic Region

Treesearch

Liem T. Tran; C. Gregory Knight; Robert V. O' Neill; Elizabeth R. Smith; Kurt H. Riitters; James D. Wickham

2002-01-01

A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators was developed. This was a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The method was capable of ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumulative impacts across a large region. Using data on land cover, population, roads, streams,...

Conservation Priorities for Terrestrial Birds in the Northeastern United States

Treesearch

Kenneth V. Rosenberg; Jeffrey V. Wells

2005-01-01

As part of the Partners in Flight (PIF) bird-conservation planning process, we assessed breeding land bird species according to seven categories of population vulnerability to derive a priority species pool in each of 12 physiographic areas that overlap the northeastern U.S. We then grouped species into the following habitat-species suites: (1) boreal-mountaintop...

Through the Eyes of Higher Education Attorneys: How Department Chairs Are Navigating the Waters of Legal Issues and Risk Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hustoles, Carol L. J.

2012-01-01

Legal and risk management issues substantially impact the operations of colleges and universities, which face escalating compliance requirements in an increasingly litigious environment. Failing to assess legal liability issues and to constructively address them with risk management processes create vulnerability to claims and litigation,…

INTEGRATION OF SPATIAL DATA: METHODS EVALUATION WITH REGARD TO DATA ISSUES AND ASSESSMENT QUESTIONS

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (REVA) Program is developing and demonstrating approaches to assess current and future environmental vulnerabilities at a regional scale. An initial effort within this research program has been to develop and evaluate methods to synthesize ...

Salmon and Sagebrush: The Shoshone-Bannock Tribes Collaborative Approach to Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, A.; Nasser, E.; Stone, D.; Krosby, M.; Whitley-Binder, L.; Morgan, H.; Rupp, D. E.; Dello, K.; Dalton, M. M.; Fox, M.; Rodgers, K.

2017-12-01

The Shoshone-Bannock Tribes reside in the Upper Snake River Watershed in southeast Idaho. Their lives and culture are intertwined with the lands where they live; lands which continue to sustain the Tribes cultural, spiritual, dietary and economic needs. Climate change presents a new threat to the region requiring innovative approaches to prepare for changes as well as to protect the natural resources within the region. As a critical first step in building climate resilience, the Tribes worked with Adaptation International, the University of Washington's Climate Impacts Group (CIG) and the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI) to complete a collaborative climate change vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning process. This presentation provides an overview of collaborative process, shares the results of the project, and includes a 3-minute video presentation. The project started with the identification of 34 plant and animal species to focus the vulnerability assessment. OCCRI analyzed detailed downscaled climate projections for two key climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and timescales (2050s and 2080s). CIG then used NatureServe's Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to develop initial relative vulnerability results for these species. A core team of Tribal staff members from various departments refined these results, drawing upon and integrating rich local and traditional knowledges of the natural environmental and cultural resources. The adaptation planning phase of the project continued in a similar collaborative manner with the project team identifying promising adaptation actions and working directly with Tribal staff to refine and customize these strategies. Tailoring the actions to the local context provides a framework for action that the Tribes can continue to build on in the future. By engaging in these efforts to identify vulnerable species and adaptation strategies and actions to minimize the negative effects of climate change, the Tribes have demonstrated their continued commitment to protecting their vital natural resources. The Tribes will continue to implement projects across landscapes in the near term and utilize the information co-produced as part of this project to develop long-term strategies and projects to build resilience.

Climate vulnerability of drinking water supplies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selmeczi, Pál; Homolya, Emese; Rotárné Szalkai, Ágnes

2016-04-01

Extreme weather conditions in Hungary led to difficulties in drinking water management on diverse occasions in the past. Due to reduced water resources and the coexisting high demand for drinking water in dry summer periods the availability of a number of water supplies became insufficient therefore causing limitations in water access. In some other cases, as a result of floods and flash floods over karstic areas evolving in consequence of excessive precipitation, several water supplies had to be excluded in order to avoid the risk of infections. More frequent occurrence of extreme weather conditions and further possible changes in the future induce the necessity for an analysis of the vulnerability of drinking water resources to climate change. Since 95% of the total drinking water supply in Hungary originates from subsurface layers, significance of groundwater resources is outstanding. The aim of our work carried out in the frames of the NAGiS (National Adaptation Geo-information System) project was to build up a methodology for the study and determination of the vulnerability of drinking water supplies to climate. The task covered analyses of climatic parameters influencing drinking water supplies principally and hydrogeological characteristics of the geological media that significantly determines vulnerability. Effects on drinking water resources and their reduction or exclusion may imply societal and economic consequences therefore we extended the analyses to the investigation of possibilities concerning the adaptation capacity to changed conditions. We applied the CIVAS (Climate Impact and Vulnerability Assessment Scheme) model developed in the frames of the international climate research project CLAVIER (Climate Change and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern Europe) to characterize climate vulnerability of drinking water supplies. The CIVAS model, being based on the combined evaluation of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability, provides a unified methodical scheme to quantitative climatic impact assessment. We investigate the effects of climate change in the integrated context of exposure, sensitivity, impact, adaptive capacity and vulnerability, thus apart from the expected environmental changes societal and economic processes are also taken into account. Climate vulnerability has been determined on the basis of the distribution and categorisation of the chosen indicators. Further effects, independent of climate change and caused by anthropogenic activity, result in similar phenomena. It is often difficult to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic effects that occur simultaneously therefore in the analyses of vulnerability anthropogenic activity is needed to be taken into account. We determined climate vulnerability using data of two different climate models and for two separate future time periods. Results on the basis of both climate model projections suggest that a considerable number of regions in the area under investigation appear to be vulnerable to climate change to a certain extent and vulnerability intensifies to the end of the 21th century.

An Assessment of Vulnerabilities for Ship-based Control Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

VULNERABILITIES FOR SHIP- BASED CONTROL SYSTEMS by Richard Bensing September 2009 Thesis Advisor: Karen Burke Co-Advisor: George Dinolt...COVERED Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: An Assessment of Vulnerabilities for Ship- based Control Systems 6. AUTHOR(S) Richard Bensing 5...soft underbelly. Computer- based control systems form the heart of the critical infrastructure, and these control systems are riddled with rampant

Livelihood Vulnerability Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts to Mixed Agro-Livestock Smallholders Around the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panthi, J., Sr.

2014-12-01

Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends upon agriculture and livestock are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world's fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there are few studies on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and IPCC vulnerability index (VI-IPCC), around the Gandaki river basin of Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts (Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu) representing the mountain, mid-hill and lowland altitudinal belts respectively. Data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected. Both indices differed across the three districts, with mixed agro-livestock smallholders of Dhading district found to be the most vulnerable and that of Syangja least vulnerable. This vulnerability index approach may be used to monitor rural vulnerability and/or evaluate potential program/policy effectiveness in poor countries like Nepal. The present findings are intended to help in designing intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders and other rural people in developing countries to climate change.

Probabilistic assessment of beach and dune changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sallenger, A.H.; Stockdon, H.; Haines, J.; Krabill, W.; Swift, R.; Brock, J.

2004-01-01

The recent availability of spatially-dense airborne lidar data makes assessment of the vulnerability of beaches and dunes to storm impacts practical over long reaches of coast. As an initial test, elevations of the tops (D high) and bases (Dlow) of foredune ridges along a 55-km reach on the northern Outer Banks, NC were found to have considerable spatial variability suggesting that different parts of the barrier island would respond differently to storms. Comparing statistics of storm wave runup to D high and Dlow, we found that net erosion due to overwash and dune retreat should be greatest at the northern and southern ends of the study area and least in the central section. This predicted spatial pattern of storm-induced erosion is similar to the spatial pattern of long-term erosion of the shoreline which may be controlled by additional processes (such as gradients in longshore transport) as well as the cross-shore processes considered here. However, consider feedback where at erosional hot spots there is a deficit of sand (caused by gradients in longshore transport) which lead to lower dunes and enhanced erosional cross-shore processes, such as overwash. Hence, the erosional hot spots would be exacerbated, further increasing the vulnerability of the beach and dunes to net erosion.

"Vulnerability, Resiliency, and Adaptation: The Health of Latin Americans during the Migration Process to the United States"

PubMed

Riosmena, Fernando; Jochem, Warren C

2012-01-01

In this paper, we offer a general outlook of the health of Latin Americans (with a special emphasis on Mexicans) during the different stages of the migration process to the U.S. given the usefulness of the social vulnerability concept and given that said vulnerability varies conspicuously across the different stages of the migration process. Severe migrant vulnerability during the transit and crossing has serious negative health consequences. Yet, upon their arrival to the U.S., migrant health is favorable in outcomes such as mortality by many causes of death and in several chronic conditions and risk factors, though these apparent advantages seem to disappear during the process of adaptation to the host society. We discuss potential explanations for the initial health advantage and the sources of vulnerability that explain its erosion, with special emphasis in systematic timely access to health care. Given that migration can affect social vulnerability processes in sending areas, we discuss the potential health consequences for these places and conclude by considering the immigration and health policy implications of these issues for the United States and sending countries, with emphasis on Mexico.

“Vulnerability, Resiliency, and Adaptation: The Health of Latin Americans during the Migration Process to the United States”*

PubMed Central

Riosmena, Fernando; Jochem, Warren C.

2013-01-01

In this paper, we offer a general outlook of the health of Latin Americans (with a special emphasis on Mexicans) during the different stages of the migration process to the U.S. given the usefulness of the social vulnerability concept and given that said vulnerability varies conspicuously across the different stages of the migration process. Severe migrant vulnerability during the transit and crossing has serious negative health consequences. Yet, upon their arrival to the U.S., migrant health is favorable in outcomes such as mortality by many causes of death and in several chronic conditions and risk factors, though these apparent advantages seem to disappear during the process of adaptation to the host society. We discuss potential explanations for the initial health advantage and the sources of vulnerability that explain its erosion, with special emphasis in systematic timely access to health care. Given that migration can affect social vulnerability processes in sending areas, we discuss the potential health consequences for these places and conclude by considering the immigration and health policy implications of these issues for the United States and sending countries, with emphasis on Mexico. PMID:24660053

COORDINATING, COMMUNICATING AND PERFORMING COMPLEX RESEARCH THAT IDENTIFIES VULNERABLE STREAM ECOSYSTEM IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

EPA Science Inventory

The USEPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program was created to advance the scientific basis for protecting vulnerable ecosystems at a regional scale. As a first step, the ReVa program will coordinate, communicate and perform complex research that will identify vulner...

Scenario-based tsunami risk assessment using a static flooding approach and high-resolution digital elevation data: An example from Muscat in Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Bastian; Hoffmann, Gösta; Reicherter, Klaus

2016-04-01

Knowledge of tsunami risk and vulnerability is essential to establish a well-adapted Multi Hazard Early Warning System, land-use planning and emergency management. As the tsunami risk for the coastline of Oman is still under discussion and remains enigmatic, various scenarios based on historical tsunamis were created. The suggested inundation and run-up heights were projected onto the modern infrastructural setting of the Muscat Capital Area. Furthermore, possible impacts of the worst-case tsunami event for Muscat are discussed. The approved Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Model was used to model the structural vulnerability of the infrastructure for a 2 m tsunami scenario, depicting the 1945 tsunami and a 5 m tsunami in Muscat. Considering structural vulnerability, the results suggest a minor tsunami risk for the 2 m tsunami scenario as the flooding is mainly confined to beaches and wadis. Especially traditional brick buildings, still predominant in numerous rural suburbs, and a prevalently coast-parallel road network lead to an increased tsunami risk. In contrast, the 5 m tsunami scenario reveals extensively inundated areas and with up to 48% of the buildings flooded, and therefore consequently a significantly higher tsunami risk. We expect up to 60000 damaged buildings and up to 380000 residents directly affected in the Muscat Capital Area, accompanied with a significant loss of life and damage to vital infrastructure. The rapid urbanization processes in the Muscat Capital Area, predominantly in areas along the coast, in combination with infrastructural, demographic and economic growth will additionally increase the tsunami risk and therefore emphasizes the importance of tsunami risk assessment in Oman.

Vulnerability of Thai rice production to simultaneous climate and socioeconomic changes: a double exposure analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangpenchan, R.

2011-12-01

This research explores the vulnerability of Thai rice production to simultaneous exposure by climate and socioeconomic change -- so-called "double exposure." Both processes influence Thailand's rice production system, but the vulnerabilities associated with their interactions are unknown. To understand this double exposure, I adopts a mixed-method, qualitative-quantitative analytical approach consisting of three phases of analysis involving a Vulnerability Scoping Diagram, a Principal Component Analysis, and the EPIC crop model using proxy datasets collected from secondary data sources at provincial scales.The first and second phases identify key variables representing each of the three dimensions of vulnerability -- exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicating that the greatest vulnerability in the rice production system occurs in households and areas with high exposure to climate change, high sensitivity to climate and socioeconomic stress, and low adaptive capacity. In the third phase, the EPIC crop model simulates rice yields associated with future climate change projected by CSIRO and MIROC climate models. Climate change-only scenarios project the decrease in yields by 10% from the current productivity during 2016-2025 and 30% during 2045-2054. Scenarios applying both climate change and improved technology and management practices show that a 50% increase in rice production is possible, but requires strong collaboration between sectors to advance agricultural research and technology and requires strong adaptive capacity in the rice production system characterized by well-developed social capital, social networks, financial capacity, and infrastructure and household mobility at the local scale. The vulnerability assessment and climate and crop adaptation simulations used here provide useful information to decision makers developing vulnerability reduction plans in the face of concurrent climate and socioeconomic change.

Analysis of the sensory profile in children with Smith-Magenis syndrome.

PubMed

Hildenbrand, Hanna L; Smith, Ann C M

2012-02-01

This study systematically assessed sensory processing in 34 children, aged 3-14 years, with Smith-Magenis syndrome (SMS) using the Sensory Profile Caregiver Questionnaire. Scores for the SMS cohort were significantly different from scores of the national sample of children with and without disabilities in all Sensory Profile categories and quadrants (p < .001). No main effects of age or gender were found, but an interaction effect of age by gender was found in Modulation of Sensory Input Affecting Emotional Responses, in which older females presented with the lowest scores. A significant decline over time was found in the Seeking pattern, reflecting increased vulnerability (p < .05). Nonsignificant trends suggest more vulnerabilities for older versus younger children, especially older females. The neurobehavioral phenotype in children with SMS is expanded by this description of sensory processing. How children with SMS experience and respond to everyday sensations informs multidisciplinary team decisions.

Consistent approach to describing aircraft HIRF protection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rimbey, P. R.; Walen, D. B.

1995-01-01

The high intensity radiated fields (HIRF) certification process as currently implemented is comprised of an inconsistent combination of factors that tend to emphasize worst case scenarios in assessing commercial airplane certification requirements. By examining these factors which include the process definition, the external HIRF environment, the aircraft coupling and corresponding internal fields, and methods of measuring equipment susceptibilities, activities leading to an approach to appraising airplane vulnerability to HIRF are proposed. This approach utilizes technically based criteria to evaluate the nature of the threat, including the probability of encountering the external HIRF environment. No single test or analytic method comprehensively addresses the full HIRF threat frequency spectrum. Additional tools such as statistical methods must be adopted to arrive at more realistic requirements to reflect commercial aircraft vulnerability to the HIRF threat. Test and analytic data are provided to support the conclusions of this report. This work was performed under NASA contract NAS1-19360, Task 52.

Assessment of coastal vulnerability through the use of GIS tools in South Sicily (Italy).

PubMed

Anfuso, Giorgio; Martínez Del Pozo, José Angel

2009-03-01

This study assessed coastal erosion vulnerability along a 90-km sector, which included both erosional and accretionary beaches, and different levels of human occupation. Two aerial photogrammetric flights were used to reconstruct coastal evolution between 1977 and 1999. During this period, extensive accretion was recorded updrift of human structures at harbors and ports, e.g., Scoglitti (105.6 m), Donnalucata (52.8 m), and Pozzallo (94.6 m). Conversely, erosion was recorded in downdrift areas, with maximum values at Modica Stream mouth (63.8 m) and Point Castellazzo (35.2 m). Assessments were subsequently divided into four categories ranging from "high erosion" to "accretion." Several sources were examined to assess human activities and land use. The latter was mapped and divided into four categories, ranging from "very high" to "no capital" land use. Subsequently, coastal erosion vulnerability was assessed by combining land use categories with recorded coastline behavior. Results showed "very high" to "high" vulnerability along 5.8% and 16.6%, respectively, of the littoral, while 20.9% and 56.7%, respectively, was found to exhibit "medium" and "low/very low" vulnerability. A very good agreement between predicted coastal vulnerability and coastal trend had been observed over recent years. Furthermore, several human structures and activities are located within the "imminent collapse zone (ICZ)" which reached maximum values of 17.5 m at Modica Stream and 13.5 m at Point Braccetto.

A Global Geospatial Database of 5000+ Historic Flood Event Extents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tellman, B.; Sullivan, J.; Doyle, C.; Kettner, A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Erickson, T.; Slayback, D. A.

2017-12-01

A key dataset that is missing for global flood model validation and understanding historic spatial flood vulnerability is a global historical geo-database of flood event extents. Decades of earth observing satellites and cloud computing now make it possible to not only detect floods in near real time, but to run these water detection algorithms back in time to capture the spatial extent of large numbers of specific events. This talk will show results from the largest global historical flood database developed to date. We use the Dartmouth Flood Observatory flood catalogue to map over 5000 floods (from 1985-2017) using MODIS, Landsat, and Sentinel-1 Satellites. All events are available for public download via the Earth Engine Catalogue and via a website that allows the user to query floods by area or date, assess population exposure trends over time, and download flood extents in geospatial format.In this talk, we will highlight major trends in global flood exposure per continent, land use type, and eco-region. We will also make suggestions how to use this dataset in conjunction with other global sets to i) validate global flood models, ii) assess the potential role of climatic change in flood exposure iii) understand how urbanization and other land change processes may influence spatial flood exposure iv) assess how innovative flood interventions (e.g. wetland restoration) influence flood patterns v) control for event magnitude to assess the role of social vulnerability and damage assessment vi) aid in rapid probabilistic risk assessment to enable microinsurance markets. Authors on this paper are already using the database for the later three applications and will show examples of wetland intervention analysis in Argentina, social vulnerability analysis in the USA, and micro insurance in India.

Developing a Composite Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment Model Combining DRASTIC with Agricultural Land Use in Choushui River Alluvial Fan, Central Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shih-Kai; Hsieh, Chih-Heng; Tsai, Cheng-Bin

2017-04-01

Aquifer vulnerability assessment is considered to be an effective tool in controlling potential pollution which is critical for groundwater management. The Choushui River alluvial fan, located in central Taiwan, is an agricultural area with complex crop patterns and various irrigation schemes, which increased the difficulties in groundwater resource management. The aim of this study is to propose an integrated methodology to assess shallow groundwater vulnerability by including land-use impact on groundwater potential pollution. The original groundwater vulnerability methodology, DRASTIC, was modified by adding a land-use parameter in order to assess groundwater vulnerability under intense agricultural activities. To examine the prediction capacity of pollution for the modified DRASTIC model, various risk categories of contamination potentials were compared with observed nitrate-N obtained from groundwater monitoring network. It was found that for the original DRASTIC vulnerability map, some areas with low nitrate-N concentrations are covered within the high vulnerability areas, especially in the northern part of mid-fan areas, where rice paddy is the main crop and planted for two crop seasons per year. The low nitrate-N contamination potential of rice paddies may be resulted from the denitrification in the reduced root zone. By reducing the rating for rice paddies, the modified model was proved to be capable of increasing the precise of prediction in study area. The results can provide a basis for groundwater monitoring network design and effective preserve measures formulation in the mixed agricultural area. Keyword:Aquifer Vulnerability, Groundwater, DRASTIC, Nitrate-N

Projecting species’ vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Sofaer, Helen R.; Skagen, Susan K.; Ray, Andrea J.; Noon, Barry R

2017-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross-validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross-validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross-validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported.

Projecting species' vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

PubMed

Steen, Valerie; Sofaer, Helen R; Skagen, Susan K; Ray, Andrea J; Noon, Barry R

2017-11-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross-validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross-validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross-validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported.

Inflammation and vascular remodeling in the ventral hippocampus contributes to vulnerability to stress.

PubMed

Pearson-Leary, J; Eacret, D; Chen, R; Takano, H; Nicholas, B; Bhatnagar, S

2017-06-27

During exposure to chronic stress, some individuals engage in active coping behaviors that promote resiliency to stress. Other individuals engage in passive coping that is associated with vulnerability to stress and with anxiety and depression. In an effort to identify novel molecular mechanisms that underlie vulnerability or resilience to stress, we used nonbiased analyses of microRNAs in the ventral hippocampus (vHPC) to identify those miRNAs differentially expressed in active (long-latency (LL)/resilient) or passive (short-latency (SL)/vulnerable) rats following chronic social defeat. In the vHPC of active coping rats, miR-455-3p level was increased, while miR-30e-3p level was increased in the vHPC of passive coping rats. Pathway analyses identified inflammatory and vascular remodeling pathways as enriched by genes targeted by these microRNAs. Utilizing several independent markers for blood vessels, inflammatory processes and neural activity in the vHPC, we found that SL/vulnerable rats exhibit increased neural activity, vascular remodeling and inflammatory processes that include both increased blood-brain barrier permeability and increased number of microglia in the vHPC relative to control and resilient rats. To test the relevance of these changes for the development of the vulnerable phenotype, we used pharmacological approaches to determine the contribution of inflammatory processes in mediating vulnerability and resiliency. Administration of the pro-inflammatory cytokine vascular endothelial growth factor-164 increased vulnerability to stress, while the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug meloxicam attenuated vulnerability. Collectively, these results show that vulnerability to stress is determined by a re-designed neurovascular unit characterized by increased neural activity, vascular remodeling and pro-inflammatory mechanisms in the vHPC. These results suggest that dampening inflammatory processes by administering anti-inflammatory agents reduces vulnerability to stress. These results have translational relevance as they suggest that administration of anti-inflammatory agents may reduce the impact of stress or trauma in vulnerable individuals.

Inflammation and vascular remodeling in the ventral hippocampus contributes to vulnerability to stress

PubMed Central

Pearson-Leary, J; Eacret, D; Chen, R; Takano, H; Nicholas, B; Bhatnagar, S

2017-01-01

During exposure to chronic stress, some individuals engage in active coping behaviors that promote resiliency to stress. Other individuals engage in passive coping that is associated with vulnerability to stress and with anxiety and depression. In an effort to identify novel molecular mechanisms that underlie vulnerability or resilience to stress, we used nonbiased analyses of microRNAs in the ventral hippocampus (vHPC) to identify those miRNAs differentially expressed in active (long-latency (LL)/resilient) or passive (short-latency (SL)/vulnerable) rats following chronic social defeat. In the vHPC of active coping rats, miR-455-3p level was increased, while miR-30e-3p level was increased in the vHPC of passive coping rats. Pathway analyses identified inflammatory and vascular remodeling pathways as enriched by genes targeted by these microRNAs. Utilizing several independent markers for blood vessels, inflammatory processes and neural activity in the vHPC, we found that SL/vulnerable rats exhibit increased neural activity, vascular remodeling and inflammatory processes that include both increased blood–brain barrier permeability and increased number of microglia in the vHPC relative to control and resilient rats. To test the relevance of these changes for the development of the vulnerable phenotype, we used pharmacological approaches to determine the contribution of inflammatory processes in mediating vulnerability and resiliency. Administration of the pro-inflammatory cytokine vascular endothelial growth factor-164 increased vulnerability to stress, while the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug meloxicam attenuated vulnerability. Collectively, these results show that vulnerability to stress is determined by a re-designed neurovascular unit characterized by increased neural activity, vascular remodeling and pro-inflammatory mechanisms in the vHPC. These results suggest that dampening inflammatory processes by administering anti-inflammatory agents reduces vulnerability to stress. These results have translational relevance as they suggest that administration of anti-inflammatory agents may reduce the impact of stress or trauma in vulnerable individuals. PMID:28654094

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices (2011 Final)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA has released the final report titled, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices. This report was prepared by the National Center for Environmental Assessment's Global Climate Research Staff in the Office of Research and D...

REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT (REVA): TARGETING RISK MANAGEMENT ACTIONS AND PROVIDING OPTIONS FOR INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program is an approach to regional scale, priority-setting assessment being developed by EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD). ReVA will effectively informs decision-makers as to the magnitude, extent, distribution, and unc...

Physical assessment of coastal vulnerability under enhanced land subsidence in Semarang, Indonesia, using multi-sensor satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Husnayaen; Rimba, A. Besse; Osawa, Takahiro; Parwata, I. Nyoman Sudi; As-syakur, Abd. Rahman; Kasim, Faizal; Astarini, Ida Ayu

2018-04-01

Research has been conducted in Semarang, Indonesia, to assess coastal vulnerability under enhanced land subsidence using multi-sensor satellite data, including the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band SAR (PALSAR), Landsat TM, IKONOS, and TOPEX/Poseidon. A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was constructed to estimate the level of vulnerability of a coastline approximately 48.68 km in length using seven physical variables, namely, land subsidence, relative sea level change, coastal geomorphology, coastal slope, shoreline change, mean tidal range, and significant wave height. A comparison was also performed between a CVI calculated using seven parameters and a CVI using six parameters, the latter of which excludes the land subsidence parameter, to determine the effects of land subsidence during the coastal vulnerability assessment. This study showed that the accuracy of coastal vulnerability was increased 40% by adding the land subsidence factor (i.e., CVI 6 parameters = 53%, CVI 7 parameters = 93%). Moreover, Kappa coefficient indicated very good agreement (0.90) for CVI 7 parameters and fair agreement (0.3) for CVI 6 parameters. The results indicate that the area of very high vulnerability increased by 7% when land subsidence was added. Hence, using the CVI calculation including land subsidence parameters, the very high vulnerability area is determined to be 20% of the total coastline or 9.7 km of the total 48.7 km of coastline. This study proved that land subsidence has significant influence on coastal vulnerability in Semarang.

[Spatial and temporal changes of the ecological vulnerability in a serious soil erosion area, Southern China.

PubMed

Yao, Xiong; Yu, Kun Yong; Liu, Jian; Yang, Su Ping; He, Ping; Deng, Yang Bo; Yu, Xin Yan; Chen, Zhang Hao

2016-03-01

Research on eco-environment vulnerability assessment contributes to the ecological environmental conservation and restoration. With Changting County as the study area, this paper selec-ted 7 indicators including slope, soil type, multi-year average precipitation, elevation deviate degree, normalized difference vegetation index, population density and land use type to build ecological vulnerability assessment system by using multicollinearity diagnostics analysis approach. The quantitative assessment of ecological vulnerability in 1999, 2006 and 2014 was calculated by using entropy weight method and comprehensive index method. The changes of the temporal-spatial distribution of ecological vulnerability were also analyzed. The results showed that the ecological vulnerability level index (EVLI) decreased overall but increased locally from 1999 to 2014. The average EVLI values in 1999, 2006 and 2014 were 0.4533±0.1216, 0.4160±0.1111 and 0.3916±0.1139, respectively, indicating that the ecological vulnerability in Changting County was at the moderate grade. The EVLI decreased from 2.92 in 1999 to 2.38 in 2006 and 2.13 in 2014. The spatial distribution of the ecological vulnerability was high inside but low outside. The high vulnerability areas were distributed mainly in Hetian Town and Tingzhou Town, where the slope was less than 15° and the altitude was lower than 500 m. During the study period, Sanzhou Town had the largest decreasing range of EVLI while Tingzhou Town had the lowest.

Quantitative risk assessment using empirical vulnerability functions from debris flow event reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luna, Byron Quan; Blahut, Jan; Camera, Corrado; van Westen, Cees; Sterlacchini, Simone; Apuani, Tiziana; Akbas, Sami

2010-05-01

For a quantitative risk assessment framework it is essential to assess not only the hazardous process itself but to perform an analysis of their consequences. This quantitative assessment should include the expected monetary losses as the product of the probability of occurrence of a hazard with a given magnitude and its vulnerability. A quantifiable integrated approach of both hazard and risk is becoming a required practice in risk reduction management. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to calculate physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk could suffer an impact. These results are then applied for vulnerability and risk calculations. The risk assessment has been conducted in the Valtellina Valley, a typical Italian alpine valley lying in northern Italy (Lombardy Region). On 13th July 2008, after more than two days of intense rainfall, several debris and mud flows were released in the central part of valley between Morbegno and Berbenno. One of the largest debris flows occurred in Selvetta. The debris flow event was reconstructed after extensive field work and interviews with local inhabitants and civil protection teams. Also inside the Valtellina valley, between the 22nd and the 23rd of May 1983, two debris flows happened in Tresenda (Teglio municipality), causing casualties and considerable economic damages. On the same location, during the 26th of November 2002, another debris flow occurred that caused significant damage. For the quantification of a new scenario, the outcome results obtained from the event of Selvetta were applied in Tresenda. The Selvetta and Tresenda event were modelled with the FLO2D program. FLO2D is an Eulerian formulation with a finite differences numerical scheme that requires the specification of an input hydrograph. The internal stresses are isotropic and the basal shear stresses are calculated using a quadratic model. The significance of calculated values of pressure and velocity were investigated in terms of the resulting damage to the affected buildings. The physical damage was quantified for each affected structure within the context of physical vulnerability, which is defined as the ratio between the monetary loss and the reconstruction value. Two different empirical vulnerability curves were obtained, which are functions of debris flow velocity and pressure, respectively. Prospective economic direct losses were estimated.

Parental Depression and Child Cognitive Vulnerability Predict Children’s Cortisol Reactivity

PubMed Central

Hayden, Elizabeth P.; Hankin, Benjamin L.; Mackrell, Sarah V.M.; Sheikh, Haroon I.; Jordan, Patricia L.; Dozois, David J.A.; Singh, Shiva M.; Olino, Thomas M.; Badanes, Lisa S.

2015-01-01

Risk for depression is expressed across multiple levels of analysis. For example, parental depression and cognitive vulnerability are known markers of depression risk, but no study has examined their interactive effects on children’s cortisol reactivity, a likely mediator of early depression risk. We examined relations across these different levels of vulnerability using cross-sectional and longitudinal methods in two community samples of children. Children were assessed for cognitive vulnerability using self-reports (Study 1; n = 244) and tasks tapping memory and attentional bias (Study 2; n = 205), and their parents were assessed for depression history using structured clinical interviews. In both samples, children participated in standardized stress tasks and cortisol reactivity was assessed. Cross-sectionally and longitudinally, parental depression history and child cognitive vulnerability interacted to predict children’s cortisol reactivity; specifically, associations between parent depression and elevated child cortisol activity were found when children also showed elevated depressotypic attributions, as well as attentional and memory biases. Findings indicate that models of children’s emerging depression risk may benefit from the examination of the interactive effects of multiple sources of vulnerability across levels of analysis. PMID:25422972

Multidimensional Approach for Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment: Framing the Territorial Impacts in Two Municipalities in Portugal.

PubMed

Tavares, Alexandre Oliveira; Barros, José Leandro; Santos, Angela

2017-04-01

This study presents a new multidimensional methodology for tsunami vulnerability assessment that combines the morphological, structural, social, and tax component of vulnerability. This new approach can be distinguished from previous methodologies that focused primarily on the evaluation of potentially affected buildings and did not use tsunami numerical modeling. The methodology was applied to the Figueira da Foz and Vila do Bispo municipalities in Portugal. For each area, the potential tsunami-inundated areas were calculated considering the 1755 Lisbon tsunami, which is the greatest disaster caused by natural hazards that ever occurred in Portugal. Furthermore, the four components of the vulnerability were calculated to obtain a composite vulnerability index. This methodology enables us to differentiate the two areas in their vulnerability, highlighting the characteristics of the territory components. This methodology can be a starting point for the creation of a local assessment framework at the municipal scale related to tsunami risk. In addition, the methodology is an important support for the different local stakeholders. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Extraction of features from ultrasound acoustic emissions: a tool to assess the hydraulic vulnerability of Norway spruce trunkwood?

PubMed Central

Rosner, Sabine; Klein, Andrea; Wimmer, Rupert; Karlsson, Bo

2011-01-01

Summary • The aim of this study was to assess the hydraulic vulnerability of Norway spruce (Picea abies) trunkwood by extraction of selected features of acoustic emissions (AEs) detected during dehydration of standard size samples. • The hydraulic method was used as the reference method to assess the hydraulic vulnerability of trunkwood of different cambial ages. Vulnerability curves were constructed by plotting the percentage loss of conductivity vs an overpressure of compressed air. • Differences in hydraulic vulnerability were very pronounced between juvenile and mature wood samples; therefore, useful AE features, such as peak amplitude, duration and relative energy, could be filtered out. The AE rates of signals clustered by amplitude and duration ranges and the AE energies differed greatly between juvenile and mature wood at identical relative water losses. • Vulnerability curves could be constructed by relating the cumulated amount of relative AE energy to the relative loss of water and to xylem tension. AE testing in combination with feature extraction offers a readily automated and easy to use alternative to the hydraulic method. PMID:16771986

A synthesized biophysical and social vulnerability assessment for Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Yung-Jaan

2017-11-01

Taiwan, located in the Western Pacific, is a country that is one of the most vulnerable to disasters that are associated with the changing climate; it is located within the Ring of Fire, which is the most geologically active region in the world. The environmental and geological conditions in Taiwan are sensitive and vulnerable to such disasters. Owing to increasing urbanization in Taiwan, floods and climate-related disasters have taken an increasing toll on human lives. As global warming accelerates the rising of sea levels and increasing of the frequency of extreme weather events, disasters will continue to affect socioeconomic development and human conditions. Under such circumstances, researchers and policymakers alike must recognize the importance of providing useful knowledge concerning vulnerability, disaster recovery and resilience. Strategies for reducing vulnerability and climate-related disaster risks and for increasing resilience involve preparedness, mitigation and adaptation. In the last two decades, extreme climate events have caused severe flash floods, debris flows, landslides, and other disasters and have had negative effects of many sectors, including agriculture, infrastructure and health. Since climate change is expected to have a continued impact on socio-economic development, this work develops a vulnerability assessment framework that integrates both biophysical and social vulnerability and supports synthesized vulnerability analyses to identify vulnerable areas in Taiwan. Owing to its geographical, geological and climatic features, Taiwan is susceptible to earthquakes, typhoons, droughts and various induced disasters. Therefore, Taiwan has the urgent task of establishing a framework for assessing vulnerability as a planning and policy tool that can be used to identify not only the regions that require special attention but also hotspots in which efforts should be made to reduce vulnerability and the risk of climate-related disaster. To analyze the biophysical vulnerability of Taiwan, hazards on eight maps from Taiwan’s National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR) are analyzed. Statistical data from the NCDR on social vulnerability are also adopted. Finally, a GIS overlaying method was used to perform the synthesized vulnerability analysis of biophysical and social vulnerability for municipalities and counties in Taiwan.

Drug abuse: vulnerability and transition to addiction.

PubMed

Le Moal, M

2009-05-01

Intrinsic vulnerability is central to the transition of recreational drug use to misuse. Several factors contribute to vulnerability, inherent or acquired, and they account for the huge individual differences observed concerning the propensity to enter in the addiction process. Some of the multifactional causes for a vulnerable phenotype will be examined: genetic factors, age and gender influences, various comorbidities and epidemiological observations. Stress-induced vulnerability will be particularly reviewed because it provides a good model for a pathophysiological research and for relating environmental events to biological consequences of drug vulnerability, namely through the striato-cortical dopamine system. Experimental studies are generally blind concerning these historical factors that contribute vulnerability and a critical evaluation of current animal models is needed. The transition of the last stage of the process, addiction, is conceptualized as a progression from homeostasis to allostasis and then, to pathology.

Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Nicaragua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrne, T. R.; Townshend, I.; Byrne, J. M.; McDaniel, S. A.

2013-12-01

While there is a growing recognition of the impact that climate change may have on human development, there has been a shift in focus from an impacts-led assessment approach towards a vulnerability-led assessment approach. This research operationalizes the IPCC's definition of vulnerability in a sub-national assessment to understand how different factors that shape vulnerability to climate change vary spatially across rural Nicaragua. The research utilizes the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' (FAO UN) CropWat model to evaluate how the annual yield of two of Nicaragua's staple crops may change under projected changes in temperature and precipitation. This analysis of agricultural sensitivity under exposure to climate change is then overlain with an indicator-based assessment of adaptive capacity in rural Nicaraguan farming households. Adaptive capacity was evaluated using household survey data from the 2001 National Household Survey on Living Standards Measurement, which was provided to us by the FAO UN. The result is a map representing current vulnerability to future climate change, and can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions in rural Nicaragua.

Assessing mental health and violence on college campuses using the vulnerability model.

PubMed

Ponsford, Lisa R

2016-04-01

Violence on college campuses has become increasingly more common than in previous years. Nearly 73% of students with a mental health condition living on campus experience a mental health crisis. College students arriving on campuses today come with different needs, expectations for services, and with different risk factors than in previous years. Advanced practice registered nurses (APRNs) in college health settings have the ability to recognize these changing trends and assist with improving the mental health of this population. A critical analysis of an exemplar college campus is explored using the vulnerability model to assess risks that can lead to unnecessary and preventable violence on college campuses. The vulnerability model is a comprehensive approach utilized to guide an assessment to identify both individual and community risk factors influencing health and healthcare environments. The use of the vulnerability model illustrated in this article reveals its usefulness in identifying the risk and needs for this population. APRNs and student health centers are positioned well to utilize the vulnerability model in assessing the needs of college campuses to improve outcomes of students. ©2016 American Association of Nurse Practitioners.

Benefit-cost assessment of the use of LORAN to mitigate GPS vulnerability for positioning, navigation, and timing services

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-03-30

In 2001, a Volpe Center study assessed the vulnerability of the transportation system to : loss of the Global Positioning System (GPS).1 Subsequent to this assessment, the : Secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation initiated an examination ...

Case Studies of Water Utility Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment [External Review Draft Report

EPA Science Inventory

This report presents a series of case studies describing the approaches taken by four water utilities in the United States to assess their vulnerability to climate change. The report is not intended to be a comprehensive listing of assessment approaches or utilities conducting v...

75 FR 51806 - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-23

... case studies describing the approaches currently being taken by four water utilities to assess their... series of case studies describing the approaches currently being taken by four water utilities in the... Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency...

Regulatory Guide on Conducting a Security Vulnerability Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ek, David R.

This document will provide guidelines on conducting a security vulnerability assessment at a facility regulated by the Radiation Protection Centre. The guidelines provide a performance approach assess security effectiveness. The guidelines provide guidance for a review following the objectives outlined in IAEA NSS#11 for Category 1, 2, & 3 sources.

REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT (REVA) IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION MAKING THROUGH CLIENT PARTNERSHIPS

EPA Science Inventory

The Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReV A) Program is an applied research program t,1at is focusing on using spatial information and model results to support environmental decision-making at regional- down to local-scales. Re VA has developed analysis and assessment methods to...

Rainfall-induced landslide vulnerability Assessment in urban area reflecting Urban structure and building characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, C.; Cho, M.; Lee, D.

2017-12-01

Landslide vulnerability assessment methodology of urban area is proposed with urban structure and building charateristics which can consider total damage cost of climate impacts. We used probabilistic analysis method for modeling rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility by slope stability analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. And We combined debris flows with considering spatial movements under topographical condition and built environmental condition. Urban vulnerability of landslide is assessed by two categories: physical demages and urban structure aspect. Physical vulnerability is related to buildings, road, other ubran infra. Urban structure vulnerability is considered a function of the socio-economic factors, trigger factor of secondary damage, and preparedness level of the local government. An index-based model is developed to evaluate the life and indirect damage under landslide as well as the resilience ability against disasters. The analysis was performed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment because GIS can deal efficiently with a large volume of spatial data. The results of the landslide susceptibility assessment were compared with the landslide inventory, and the proposed approach demonstrated good predictive performance. The general trend found in this study indicates that the higher population density areas under a weaker fiscal condition that are located at the downstream of mountainous areas are more vulnerable than the areas in opposite conditions.

Report: Results of Technical Network Vulnerability Assessment: EPA’s Erlanger Building

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #10-P-0211, September 7, 2010. Vulnerability testing of EPA’s Erlanger Building network conducted in June 2010 identified Internet Protocol addresses with numerous high-risk and medium-risk vulnerabilities.

Report: Results of Technical Network Vulnerability Assessment: EPA’s Region 4

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #10-P-0213, September 7, 2010. Vulnerability testing of EPA’s Region 4 network conducted in June 2010 identified Internet Protocol addresses with numerous high-risk and medium-risk vulnerabilities.

Process-based monitoring and modeling of Karst springs - Linking intrinsic to specific vulnerability.

PubMed

Epting, Jannis; Page, Rebecca M; Auckenthaler, Adrian; Huggenberger, Peter

2018-06-01

The presented work illustrates to what extent field investigations as well as monitoring and modeling approaches are necessary to understand the high discharge dynamics and vulnerability of Karst springs. In complex settings the application of 3D geological models is essential for evaluating the vulnerability of Karst systems. They allow deriving information on catchment characteristics, as the geometry of aquifers and aquitards as well as their displacements along faults. A series of Karst springs in northwestern Switzerland were compared and Karst system dynamics with respect to qualitative and quantitative issues were evaluated. The main objective of the studies was to combine information of catchment characteristics and data from novel monitoring systems (physicochemical and microbiological parameters) to assess the intrinsic vulnerability of Karst springs to microbiological contamination with simulated spring discharges derived from numerical modeling (linear storage models). The numerically derived relation of fast and slow groundwater flow components enabled us to relate different sources of groundwater recharge and to characterize the dynamics of the Karst springs. Our study illustrates that comparably simple model-setups were able to reproduce the overall dynamic intrinsic vulnerability of several Karst systems and that one of the most important processes involved was the temporal variation of groundwater recharge (precipitation, evapotranspiration and snow melt). Furthermore, we make a first attempt on how to link intrinsic to specific vulnerability of Karst springs, which involves activities within the catchment area as human impacts from agriculture and settlements. Likewise, by a more detailed representation of system dynamics the influence of surface water, which is impacted by release events from storm sewers, infiltrating into the Karst system, could be considered. Overall, we demonstrate that our approach can be the basis for a more flexible and differentiated management and monitoring of raw-water quality of Karst springs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Design and testing of a process-based groundwater vulnerability assessment (P-GWAVA) system for predicting concentrations of agrichemicals in groundwater across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbash, Jack E; Voss, Frank D.

2016-03-29

Efforts to assess the likelihood of groundwater contamination from surface-derived compounds have spanned more than three decades. Relatively few of these assessments, however, have involved the use of process-based simulations of contaminant transport and fate in the subsurface, or compared the predictions from such models with measured data—especially over regional to national scales. To address this need, a process-based groundwater vulnerability assessment (P-GWAVA) system was constructed to use transport-and-fate simulations to predict the concentration of any surface-derived compound at a specified depth in the vadose zone anywhere in the conterminous United States. The system was then used to simulate the concentrations of selected agrichemicals in the vadose zone beneath agricultural areas in multiple locations across the conterminous United States. The simulated concentrations were compared with measured concentrations of the compounds detected in shallow groundwater (that is, groundwater drawn from within a depth of 6.3 ± 0.5 meters [mean ± 95 percent confidence interval] below the water table) in more than 1,400 locations across the United States. The results from these comparisons were used to select the simulation approaches that led to the closest agreement between the simulated and the measured concentrations.The P-GWAVA system uses computer simulations that account for a broader range of the hydrologic, physical, biological and chemical phenomena known to control the transport and fate of solutes in the subsurface than has been accounted for by any other vulnerability assessment over regional to national scales. Such phenomena include preferential transport and the influences of temperature, soil properties, and depth on the partitioning, transport, and transformation of pesticides in the subsurface. Published methods and detailed soil property data are used to estimate a wide range of model input parameters for each site, including surface albedo, surface crust permeability, soil water content, Brooks-Corey parameters, saturated hydraulic conductivity, macroporosity and sizes of microbial populations, as well as solute partition coefficients, reaction rates, and meso-micropore diffusion rates. To ensure geographic consistency among the predictions, the only site-specific input data that are used are those that are available for all of the 48 conterminous states.

Mapping Extreme Heat Vulnerability and Health Outcomes to inform the District of Columbia's Climate Adaptation Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Declet-Barreto, J.; Wilhelmi, O.; Goggans, A.

2016-12-01

In this collaborative engagement, scientists are partnering with the District of Columbia (DC) to develop an extreme heat vulnerability assessment. To do so, we map socio-demographic and built environment indicators of extreme heat vulnerability in Census Tracts in DC neighborhoods. In order to provide information useful for DC public health and urban planning practitioners, we aggregate the indicators into an index of extreme heat vulnerability. We compare the index against heat-related call data from DC's 911 system to better understand the socio-spatial distribution of extreme heat-related health outcomes. Our assessment can help inform the District's Climate Adaptation Plan as well as increase public engagement in reducing vulnerability to extreme heat.

The classification and assessment of vulnerability of man-land system of oasis city in arid area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Chao; Lei, Jun; Jin, Fengjun

2013-12-01

Oasis city system is the center of the man-land relationship in arid area and it is the most influential spatial and temporal multiple dynamic system. Oasis city system is not only the largest area where artificial disturbances occur at a regional scale but also the most concentrated area of human activity in arid area. In this study, we developed an applicable and convenient method to assess vulnerability of man-land system of oasis cities with vulnerability indicator system, respectively evaluating the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of the eco-environment system, the economic system and the social system. The results showed that the sensitivity and vulnerability of oasis cities in Xinjiang, China have significant differences while their adaptability does little. In order to find the inherent differences in the vulnerability of oasis cities, triangle methodology has been adopted to divide Xinjiang oasis cities into five types. Some adaptive developing policies specific for individual cities are also proposed based on their vulnerability type and constraining factors.

Assessing species vulnerability to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacifici, Michela; Foden, Wendy B.; Visconti, Piero; Watson, James E. M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Scheffers, Brett R.; Hole, David G.; Martin, Tara G.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Corlett, Richard T.; Huntley, Brian; Bickford, David; Carr, Jamie A.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Midgley, Guy F.; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E.; Willis, Stephen G.; Young, Bruce; Rondinini, Carlo

2015-03-01

The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.

Deriving vulnerability indicators for crop production regions in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perdinan; Atmaja, Tri; Sehabuddin, Ujang; Sugiarto, Yon; Febrianti, Lina; Farysca Adi, Ryco

2017-01-01

Food supply is considered as one of the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Higher temperature and changes in rainfall patterns and intensity may adversely impact crop production, which will eventually affect the food supply. Consequently, adaptation strategies should be devised to minimize the potential adverse impacts and maximize its potential benefits. The adaptation strategies should be devised by considering factors contributed to causing vulnerability following the concept of food supply chain, starting from production to consumption. This study focuses on identifying the contributed factors to vulnerability of crop production regions in Indonesia. The contributed factors were identified by defining indicators for each component of the food supply chain using an example of crop production centers in Indonesia, the West Java Province. The identification considers existing issues of the food supply chain, covering aspects of production, post-harvest and storage, distribution, and consumption, based on the field surveys conducted in Indramayu district of the West Java, the main grower of paddy production, and Garut district of the West Java, the main grower of corn production. The selection of the vulnerability indicators was also considered the data availability for the study area. The analysis proposed a list of indicators classified into production, post-harvest and storage, distribution and consumption that are proposed to assess the regional vulnerability of crop production regions in Indonesia. This result is expected to contribute in understanding the process of devising climate change adaptation intended for enhancing food supply resilience to climate change.

Buildings vs. ballistics: Quantifying the vulnerability of buildings to volcanic ballistic impacts using field studies and pneumatic cannon experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, G. T.; Kennedy, B. M.; Wilson, T. M.; Fitzgerald, R. H.; Tsunematsu, K.; Teissier, A.

2017-09-01

Recent casualties in volcanic eruptions due to trauma from blocks and bombs necessitate more rigorous, ballistic specific risk assessment. Quantitative assessments are limited by a lack of experimental and field data on the vulnerability of buildings to ballistic hazards. An improved, quantitative understanding of building vulnerability to ballistic impacts is required for informing appropriate life safety actions and other risk reduction strategies. We assessed ballistic impacts to buildings from eruptions at Usu Volcano and Mt. Ontake in Japan and compiled available impact data from eruptions elsewhere to identify common damage patterns from ballistic impacts to buildings. We additionally completed a series of cannon experiments which simulate ballistic block impacts to building claddings to investigate their performance over a range of ballistic projectile velocities, masses and energies. Our experiments provide new insights by quantifying (1) the hazard associated with post-impact shrapnel from building and rock fragments; (2) the effect of impact obliquity on damage; and (3) the additional impact resistance buildings possess when claddings are struck in areas directly supported by framing components. This was not well identified in previous work which may have underestimated building vulnerability to ballistic hazards. To improve assessment of building vulnerability to ballistics, we use our experimental and field data to develop quantitative vulnerability models known as fragility functions. Our fragility functions and field studies show that although unreinforced buildings are highly vulnerable to large ballistics (> 20 cm diameter), they can still provide shelter, preventing death during eruptions.

Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

PubMed

Moyle, Peter B; Kiernan, Joseph D; Crain, Patrick K; Quiñones, Rebecca M

2013-01-01

Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C) are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It should be useful for setting conservation priorities in many different regions.

Climate Change Vulnerability of Native and Alien Freshwater Fishes of California: A Systematic Assessment Approach

PubMed Central

Moyle, Peter B.; Kiernan, Joseph D.; Crain, Patrick K.; Quiñones, Rebecca M.

2013-01-01

Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California’s native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C) are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It should be useful for setting conservation priorities in many different regions. PMID:23717503

Spatio-temporal earthquake risk assessment for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area - A contribution to improving standard methods of population exposure and vulnerability analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freire, Sérgio; Aubrecht, Christoph

2010-05-01

The recent 7.0 M earthquake that caused severe damage and destruction in parts of Haiti struck close to 5 PM (local time), at a moment when many people were not in their residences, instead being in their workplaces, schools, or churches. Community vulnerability assessment to seismic hazard relying solely on the location and density of resident-based census population, as is commonly the case, would grossly misrepresent the real situation. In particular in the context of global (climate) change, risk analysis is a research field increasingly gaining in importance whereas risk is usually defined as a function of hazard probability and vulnerability. Assessment and mapping of human vulnerability has however generally been lagging behind hazard analysis efforts. Central to the concept of vulnerability is the issue of human exposure. Analysis of exposure is often spatially tied to administrative units or reference objects such as buildings, spanning scales from the regional level to local studies for small areas. Due to human activities and mobility, the spatial distribution of population is time-dependent, especially in metropolitan areas. Accurately estimating population exposure is a key component of catastrophe loss modeling, one element of effective risk analysis and emergency management. Therefore, accounting for the spatio-temporal dynamics of human vulnerability correlates with recent recommendations to improve vulnerability analyses. Earthquakes are the prototype for a major disaster, being low-probability, rapid-onset, high-consequence events. Lisbon, Portugal, is subject to a high risk of earthquake, which can strike at any day and time, as confirmed by modern history (e.g. December 2009). The recently-approved Special Emergency and Civil Protection Plan (PEERS) is based on a Seismic Intensity map, and only contemplates resident population from the census as proxy for human exposure. In the present work we map and analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of population in the daily cycle to re-assess exposure to earthquake hazard in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, home to almost three million people. New high-resolution (50 m grids) daytime and nighttime population distribution maps are developed using dasymetric mapping. The modeling approach uses areal interpolation to combine best-available census data and statistics with land use and land cover data. Mobility statistics are considered for mapping daytime distribution, and empirical parameters used for interpolation are obtained from a previous effort in high resolution population mapping of part of the study area. Finally, the population distribution maps are combined with the Seismic Hazard Intensity map to: (1) quantify and compare human exposure to seismic intensity levels in the daytime and nighttime periods, and (2) derive nighttime and daytime overall Earthquake Risk maps. This novel approach yields previously unavailable spatio-temporal population distribution information for the study area, enabling refined and more accurate earthquake risk mapping and assessment. Additionally, such population exposure datasets can be combined with different hazard maps to improve spatio-temporal assessment and risk mapping for any type of hazard, natural or man-made. We believe this improved characterization of vulnerability and risk can benefit all phases of the disaster management process where human exposure has to be considered, namely in emergency planning, risk mitigation, preparedness, and response to an event.

Environmental Health Related Socio-Spatial Inequalities: Identifying “Hotspots” of Environmental Burdens and Social Vulnerability

PubMed Central

Shrestha, Rehana; Flacke, Johannes; Martinez, Javier; van Maarseveen, Martin

2016-01-01

Differential exposure to multiple environmental burdens and benefits and their distribution across a population with varying vulnerability can contribute heavily to health inequalities. Particularly relevant are areas with high cumulative burdens and high social vulnerability termed as “hotspots”. This paper develops an index-based approach to assess these multiple burdens and benefits in combination with vulnerability factors at detailed intra-urban level. The method is applied to the city of Dortmund, Germany. Using non-spatial and spatial methods we assessed inequalities and identified “hotspot” areas in the city. We found modest inequalities burdening higher vulnerable groups in Dortmund (CI = −0.020 at p < 0.05). At the detailed intra-urban level, however, inequalities showed strong geographical patterns. Large numbers of “hotspots” exist in the northern part of the city compared to the southern part. A holistic assessment, particularly at a detailed local level, considering both environmental burdens and benefits and their distribution across the population with the different vulnerability, is essential to inform environmental justice debates and to mobilize local stakeholders. Locating “hotspot” areas at this detailed spatial level can serve as a basis to develop interventions that target vulnerable groups to ensure a health conducive equal environment. PMID:27409625

Evaluation and Mitigation of the Risk Due to Climate Change at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.

2016-12-01

The state of South Carolina, home to the Department of Energy's (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS), has been identified as facing an `above average' risk due to extreme heat, and the threat due to wildfire is expected to nearly double by 2050. To comply with DOE requirements that each of its sites prepares for climate change, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is involved in an ongoing process to evaluate the site vulnerability and establish policies to mitigate those effects. This requires close cooperation between the managers of various site facilities and on-site climate researchers. The Atmospheric Technologies Group at SRNL currently provides short-term weather forecasts to support outdoor activities on site, but is also now working with site decision-makers to achieve DOE's goals of climate change mitigation and adaptation. We will discuss the results of our climate vulnerability assessment, which includes the effects of climate change on the energy requirements for mission critical infrastructure, the health, safety and productivity of the outdoor workforce, the danger of fire in the SRS forest, and the levels of surface water impoundments. (The latter of which must be maintained to avoid the release of radioactive contaminants sequestered beneath them). For each of these, existing climate change projections were carefully studied and `translated' into numerical indices relevant to facility personnel at SRS, along with a vulnerability rating (also based on conversations with site workers) to estimate the most endangered `assets'. We will also explain the process we have developed to facilitate effective communication between researchers and managers - involving them both in the development of the climate vulnerability assessment and the next steps toward planning, resource allocation, actions to mitigate rising costs, and safety considerations as well as helping the site remain sustainable throughout the future of its missions.

Analogue modelling of the rupture process of vulnerable stalagmites in an earthquake simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gribovszki, Katalin; Bokelmann, Götz; Kovács, Károly; Hegymegi, Erika; Esterhazy, Sofi; Mónus, Péter

2017-04-01

Earthquakes hit urban centers in Europe infrequently, but occasionally with disastrous effects. Obtaining an unbiased view of seismic hazard is therefore very important. In principle, the best way to test Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) is to compare them with observations that are entirely independent of the procedure used to produce PSHA models. Arguably, the most valuable information in this context should be information on long-term hazard, namely maximum intensities (or magnitudes) occurring over time intervals that are at least as long as a seismic cycle. Long-term information can in principle be gained from intact and vulnerable stalagmites in natural caves. These formations survived all earthquakes that have occurred, over thousands of years - depending on the age of the stalagmite. Their "survival" requires that the horizontal ground acceleration has never exceeded a certain critical value within that time period. To determine this critical value for the horizontal ground acceleration more precisely we need to understand the failure process of these intact and vulnerable stalagmites. More detailed information of the vulnerable stalagmites' rupture is required, and we have to know how much it depends on the shape and the substance of the investigated stalagmite. Predicting stalagmite failure limits using numerical modelling is faced with a number of approximations, e.g. from generating a manageable digital model. Thus it seemed reasonable to investigate the problem by analogue modelling as well. The advantage of analogue modelling among other things is that nearly real circumstances can be produced by simple and quick laboratory methods. The model sample bodies were made from different types of concrete and were cut out from real broken stalagmites originated from the investigated caves. These bodies were reduced-scaled with similar shape as the original, investigated stalagmites. During the measurements we could change both the shape and the material and the time series of acting horizontal acceleration. Comparing the results from analogue to numerical modelling could improve the accuracy of long-term seismic hazard assessment.

Report: Results of Technical Network Vulnerability Assessment: EPA’s Research Triangle Park Finance Center

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #09-P-0227, August 31, 2009. Vulnerability testing conducted in April 2009 of EPA’s Research Triangle Park Finance Center network identified Internet Protocol addresses with several highrisk vulnerabilities.

Report: Results of Technical Network Vulnerability Assessment: EPA’s Radiation and Indoor Environments National Laboratory

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #09-P-0053, December 9, 2008. Vulnerability testing of EPA’s Radiation and Indoor Environments National Laboratory (R&IEN) network identified Internet Protocol addresses with medium-risk vulnerabilities.

Report: Results of Technical Network Vulnerability Assessment: EPA’s Ronald Reagan Building

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #10-P-0212, September 7, 2010. Vulnerability testing of EPA’s Ronald Reagan Building network conducted in June 2010 identified Internet Protocol addresses with numerous high-risk and medium-risk vulnerabilities.

Using GA-Ridge regression to select hydro-geological parameters influencing groundwater pollution vulnerability.

PubMed

Ahn, Jae Joon; Kim, Young Min; Yoo, Keunje; Park, Joonhong; Oh, Kyong Joo

2012-11-01

For groundwater conservation and management, it is important to accurately assess groundwater pollution vulnerability. This study proposed an integrated model using ridge regression and a genetic algorithm (GA) to effectively select the major hydro-geological parameters influencing groundwater pollution vulnerability in an aquifer. The GA-Ridge regression method determined that depth to water, net recharge, topography, and the impact of vadose zone media were the hydro-geological parameters that influenced trichloroethene pollution vulnerability in a Korean aquifer. When using these selected hydro-geological parameters, the accuracy was improved for various statistical nonlinear and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, such as multinomial logistic regression, decision trees, artificial neural networks, and case-based reasoning. These results provide a proof of concept that the GA-Ridge regression is effective at determining influential hydro-geological parameters for the pollution vulnerability of an aquifer, and in turn, improves the AI performance in assessing groundwater pollution vulnerability.

Assessing Mission Impact of Cyberattacks: Report of the NATO IST-128 Workshop

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

simulation) perspective. This would be natural, considering that the cybersecurity problem is highly adversarial in nature. Because it involves intelligent ...be formulated as a partial information game; artificial intelligence techniques might help here. Yet another style of problem formulation that...computational information processing for weapons, intelligence , communication, and logistics systems continues to increase the vulnerability of

A method to assess longitudinal riverine connectivity in tropical streams dominated by migratory data

Treesearch

Kelly E. Crook; Catherine M. Pringle; Mary C. Freeman

2009-01-01

1. One way in which dams affect ecosystem function is by altering the distribution and abundance of aquatic species. 2. Previous studies indicate that migratory shrimps have significant effects on ecosystem processes in Puerto Rican streams, but are vulnerable to impediments to upstream or downstream passage, such as dams and associated water intakes where stream water...

Cognitive Impairment, Vulnerability, and Mortality Post Ischemic Stroke: A Five-Year Follow-Up of the Action on Secondary Prevention Interventions and Rehabilitation in Stroke (ASPIRE-S) Cohort.

PubMed

Gaynor, Eva; Rohde, Daniela; Large, Margaret; Mellon, Lisa; Hall, Patricia; Brewer, Linda; Conway, Orla; Hickey, Anne; Bennett, Kathleen; Dolan, Eamon; Callaly, Elizabeth; Williams, David

2018-05-23

The aim of this study was to examine predictors of mortality in patients 5 years after ischemic stroke, focusing on cognitive impairment, vulnerability, and vascular risk factors assessed at 6 months post stroke. Patients from the Action on Secondary Prevention Interventions and Rehabilitation in Stroke (ASPIRE-S) cohort were followed up 5 years post ischemic stroke. Vascular risk factors, cognitive impairment, and vulnerability were assessed at 6 months post stroke. Cognitive impairment was assessed using a cutoff score lower than 26 on the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA). Vulnerability was defined as a score of 3 or higher on the Vulnerable Elders Scale (VES). Mortality and date of death were ascertained using hospital records, death notifications, and contact with general practitioners. Predictors of mortality were explored using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are presented. Sixty-three of 256 patients (24.6%) assessed at 6 months post stroke had died within 5 years. Cognitive impairment (HR [95% CI]: 2.19 [1.42-3.39]), vulnerability (HR [95% CI]: 5.23 [2.92-9.36]), atrial fibrillation (AF) (HR [95% CI]: 2.31 [1.80-2.96]), and dyslipidemia (HR [95% CI]: 1.90 [1.10-3.27]) were associated with increased risk of 5-year mortality. Vulnerability, cognitive impairment, AF, and dyslipidemia at 6 months were associated with increased risks of mortality 5 years post ischemic stroke. Identification and management of these risk factors should be emphasized in poststroke care. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Report for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory: May 23, 2014 -- June 5, 2015

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vogel, J.; O'Grady, M.; Renfrow, S.

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in Golden, Colorado, focuses on renewable energy and energy efficiency research. Its portfolio includes advancing renewable energy technologies that can help meet the nation's energy and environmental goals. NREL seeks to better understand the potential effects of climate change on the laboratory--and therefore on its mission--to ensure its ongoing success. Planning today for a changing climate can reduce NREL's risks and improve its resiliency to climate-related vulnerabilities. This report presents a vulnerability assessment for NREL. The assessment was conducted in fall 2014 to identify NREL's climate change vulnerabilities andmore » the aspects of NREL's mission or operations that may be affected by a changing climate.« less

Sabotage at Nuclear Power Plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Purvis, James W.

1999-07-21

Recently there has been a noted worldwide increase in violent actions including attempted sabotage at nuclear power plants. Several organizations, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, have guidelines, recommendations, and formal threat- and risk-assessment processes for the protection of nuclear assets. Other examples are the former Defense Special Weapons Agency, which used a risk-assessment model to evaluate force-protection security requirements for terrorist incidents at DOD military bases. The US DOE uses a graded approach to protect its assets based on risk and vulnerability assessments. The Federal Aviation Administration and Federal Bureau of Investigationmore » conduct joint threat and vulnerability assessments on high-risk US airports. Several private companies under contract to government agencies use formal risk-assessment models and methods to identify security requirements. The purpose of this paper is to survey these methods and present an overview of all potential types of sabotage at nuclear power plants. The paper discusses emerging threats and current methods of choice for sabotage--especially vehicle bombs and chemical attacks. Potential consequences of sabotage acts, including economic and political; not just those that may result in unacceptable radiological exposure to the public, are also discussed. Applicability of risk-assessment methods and mitigation techniques are also presented.« less

Development of a decision support tool for assessing vulnerability of transportation networks.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-08-01

This research develops a decision support tool for assessing vulnerability of transportation networks. This report consists of 1) describing the trends of freight movements in Utah, 2) identifying the current and potential freight chokepoints/bottlen...

Vulnerability of Oregon hydrologic landscapes and streamflow to climate change

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrologic classification systems can provide a basis for broadscale assessments of the hydrologic functions of landscapes and watersheds and their responses to stressors. Such assessments could be particularly useful in determining hydrologic vulnerability from climate change. ...

The use of climate information in vulnerability assessments.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

This memorandum focuses on the use of climate information when performing a vulnerability : assessment, a topic that was discussed at the Newark Pilot Peer Exchange Workshop on May 4-5, : 2011. The memorandum describes several sources of climate info...

Transportation security research : coordination needed in selecting and implementing infrastructure vulnerability assessments

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-05-01

The Department of Transportation's (DOT) Research and Special Programs Administration (RSPA) began research in to assess the vulnerabilities of the nation's transportation infrastructure and develop needed improvements in security in June 2001. The g...

Coastal vulnerability assessment of the Northern Gulf of Mexico to sea-level rise and coastal change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, E.A.; Barras, J.A.; Williams, S.J.; Twichell, D.C.

2010-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise along the Northern Gulf of Mexico from Galveston, TX, to Panama City, FL. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rate, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable are combined and an index value is calculated for 1-kilometer grid cells along the coast. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. The CVI assessment presented here builds on an earlier assessment conducted for the Gulf of Mexico. Recent higher resolution shoreline change, land loss, elevation, and subsidence data provide the foundation for a better assessment for the Northern Gulf of Mexico. The areas along the Northern Gulf of Mexico that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are parts of the Louisiana Chenier Plain, Teche-Vermillion Basin, and the Mississippi barrier islands, as well as most of the Terrebonne and Barataria Bay region and the Chandeleur Islands. These very high vulnerability areas have the highest rates of relative sea-level rise and the highest rates of shoreline change or land area loss. The information provided by coastal vulnerability assessments can be used in long-term coastal management and policy decision making.

Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability Through the Use of GIS Tools in South Sicily (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anfuso, Giorgio; Martínez Del Pozo, José Ángel

2009-03-01

This study assessed coastal erosion vulnerability along a 90-km sector, which included both erosional and accretionary beaches, and different levels of human occupation. Two aerial photogrammetric flights were used to reconstruct coastal evolution between 1977 and 1999. During this period, extensive accretion was recorded updrift of human structures at harbors and ports, e.g., Scoglitti (105.6 m), Donnalucata (52.8 m), and Pozzallo (94.6 m). Conversely, erosion was recorded in downdrift areas, with maximum values at Modica Stream mouth (63.8 m) and Point Castellazzo (35.2 m). Assessments were subsequently divided into four categories ranging from “high erosion” to “accretion.” Several sources were examined to assess human activities and land use. The latter was mapped and divided into four categories, ranging from “very high” to “no capital” land use. Subsequently, coastal erosion vulnerability was assessed by combining land use categories with recorded coastline behavior. Results showed “very high” to “high” vulnerability along 5.8% and 16.6%, respectively, of the littoral, while 20.9% and 56.7%, respectively, was found to exhibit “medium” and “low/very low” vulnerability. A very good agreement between predicted coastal vulnerability and coastal trend had been observed over recent years. Furthermore, several human structures and activities are located within the “imminent collapse zone (ICZ)” which reached maximum values of 17.5 m at Modica Stream and 13.5 m at Point Braccetto.

Consideration of vertical uncertainty in elevation-based sea-level rise assessments: Mobile Bay, Alabama case study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gesch, Dean B.

2013-01-01

The accuracy with which coastal topography has been mapped directly affects the reliability and usefulness of elevationbased sea-level rise vulnerability assessments. Recent research has shown that the qualities of the elevation data must be well understood to properly model potential impacts. The cumulative vertical uncertainty has contributions from elevation data error, water level data uncertainties, and vertical datum and transformation uncertainties. The concepts of minimum sealevel rise increment and minimum planning timeline, important parameters for an elevation-based sea-level rise assessment, are used in recognition of the inherent vertical uncertainty of the underlying data. These concepts were applied to conduct a sea-level rise vulnerability assessment of the Mobile Bay, Alabama, region based on high-quality lidar-derived elevation data. The results that detail the area and associated resources (land cover, population, and infrastructure) vulnerable to a 1.18-m sea-level rise by the year 2100 are reported as a range of values (at the 95% confidence level) to account for the vertical uncertainty in the base data. Examination of the tabulated statistics about land cover, population, and infrastructure in the minimum and maximum vulnerable areas shows that these resources are not uniformly distributed throughout the overall vulnerable zone. The methods demonstrated in the Mobile Bay analysis provide an example of how to consider and properly account for vertical uncertainty in elevation-based sea-level rise vulnerability assessments, and the advantages of doing so.

Assessing climate change and health vulnerability at the local level: Travis County, Texas.

PubMed

Prudent, Natasha; Houghton, Adele; Luber, George

2016-10-01

We created a measure to help comprehend population vulnerability to potential flooding and excessive heat events using health, built environment and social factors. Through principal component analysis (PCA), we created non-weighted sum index scores of literature-reviewed social and built environment characteristics. We created baseline poor health measures using 1999-2005 age-adjusted cardiovascular and combined diabetes and hypertension mortality rates to correspond with social-built environment indices. We mapped US Census block groups by linked age-adjusted mortality and a PCA-created social-built environment index. The goal was to measure flooding and excessive heat event vulnerability as proxies for population vulnerability to climate change for Travis County, Texas. This assessment identified communities where baseline poor health, social marginalisation and built environmental impediments intersected. Such assessments may assist targeted interventions and improve emergency preparedness in identified vulnerable communities, while fostering resilience through the focus of climate change adaptation policies at the local level. No claim to original US government works. Journal compilation © 2016 Overseas Development Institute.

GUIDED TOUR OF A WEB-BASED ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION TOOLKIT

EPA Science Inventory

Decision-making regarding the targeting of vulnerable resources and prioritization of actions requires synthesis of data on condition, vulnerability, and feasibility of risk management alternatives. EP A's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReV A) Program has evaluated existing a...

Report: Results of Technical Vulnerability Assessment: EPA’s Directory Service System Authentication and Authorization Servers

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #11-P-0597, September 9, 2011. Vulnerability testing of EPA’s directory service system authentication and authorization servers conducted in March 2011 identified authentication and authorization servers with numerous vulnerabilities.

Vulnerability Assessment of Natural Disasters for Small and Mid-Sized Streams due to Climate Change and Stream Improvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, D.; Jun, H. D.; Kim, S.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment plays an important role in drawing up climate change adaptation plans. Although there are some studies on broad vulnerability assessment in Korea, there have been very few studies to develop and apply locally focused and specific sector-oriented climate change vulnerability indicators. Especially, there has seldom been any study to investigate the effect of an adaptation project on assessing the vulnerability status to climate change for fundamental local governments. In order to relieve adverse effects of climate change, Korean government has performed the project of the Major Four Rivers (Han, Geum, Nakdong and Yeongsan river) Restoration since 2008. It is expected that water level in main stream of 4 rivers will be dropped through this project, but flood effect will be mainly occurred in small and mid-sized streams which flows in main stream. Hence, we examined how much the project of the major four rivers restoration relieves natural disasters. Conceptual framework of vulnerability-resilience index to climate change for the Korean fundamental local governments is defined as a function of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Then, statistical data on scores of proxy variables assumed to comprise climate change vulnerability for local governments are collected. Proxy variables and estimated temporary weights of them are selected by surveying a panel of experts using Delphi method, and final weights are determined by modified Entropy method. Developed vulnerability-resilience index was applied to Korean fundamental local governments and it is calculated under each scenario as follows. (1) Before the major four rivers restoration, (2) 100 years after represented climate change condition without the major four rivers restoration, (3) After the major four rivers restoration without representing climate change (this means present climate condition) and (4) After the major four rivers restoration and 100 years after represented climate change condition. In the results of calculated vulnerability-resilience index of each scenario, it can be noticed that vulnerability of watersheds which are located near main stream of four rivers is alleviated, but because of climate change, vulnerability is getting high in most watersheds. Also, considering future climate change and river restoration, vulnerability of several watersheds is relieved by river restoration. Acknowledges This work was funded by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) in Korea Program under Grant NEMA-10-NH-04.

Application of an extreme winter storm scenario to identify vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albano, Christine M.; Dettinger, Michael; McCarthy, Maureen; Schaller, Kevin D.; Wellborn, Toby; Cox, Dale A.

2016-01-01

In the Sierra Nevada mountains (USA), and geographically similar areas across the globe where human development is expanding, extreme winter storm and flood risks are expected to increase with changing climate, heightening the need for communities to assess risks and better prepare for such events. In this case study, we demonstrate a novel approach to examining extreme winter storm and flood risks. We incorporated high-resolution atmospheric–hydrologic modeling of the ARkStorm extreme winter storm scenario with multiple modes of engagement with practitioners, including a series of facilitated discussions and a tabletop emergency management exercise, to develop a regional assessment of extreme storm vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the greater Lake Tahoe region of Northern Nevada and California, USA. Through this process, practitioners discussed issues of concern across all phases of the emergency management life cycle, including preparation, response, recovery, and mitigation. Interruption of transportation, communications, and interagency coordination were among the most pressing concerns, and specific approaches for addressing these issues were identified, including prepositioning resources, diversifying communications systems, and improving coordination among state, tribal, and public utility practitioners. Science needs included expanding real-time monitoring capabilities to improve the precision of meteorological models and enhance situational awareness, assessing vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure, and conducting cost–benefit analyses to assess opportunities to improve both natural and human-made infrastructure to better withstand extreme storms. Our approach and results can be used to support both land use and emergency planning activities aimed toward increasing community resilience to extreme winter storm hazards in mountainous regions.

Assessing the vulnerability of public-supply wells to contamination—High Plains Aquifer near York, Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jagucki, Martha L.; Landon, Matthew K.; Clark, Brian R.; Eberts, Sandra M.

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program found, in studies from 1991 to 2001, low levels of mixtures of contaminants in ground water near the water table in urban areas across the Nation. Although contaminants were detected less frequently in deeper ground water typically developed for public supply the proximity of contaminant mixtures to underlying public-water-supply sources prompted the NAWQA Program to begin, in 2001, an intensive study to assess the vulnerability of public-supply wells to contamination. As part of this study, the pathways and processes by which contaminants reach public-supply wells in nine aquifer systems across the country are being investigated. In addition to studying the processes that occur below land surface—whereby contaminants are mobilized or attenuated—scientists are also investigating how human activities can affect the vulnerability of public-supply wells to contamination. This fact sheet highlights findings from two reports on the vulnerability study of a single, representative public-supply well in York, Nebraska. The selected high-capacity well typically produces more than 720,000 gallons per day from the upper confined aquifer of the High Plains aquifer. A possible source of contamination to the well is intensive, irrigated agriculture, which can sometimes result in elevated concentrations of nitrate and pesticides in ground water. In addition, a sampling of the selected public-supply well by the USGS in 2002 found low concentrations of the solvents trichloroethylene (TCE), tetrachloroethylene (PCE), and their degradation products, which may be linked to historical chemical use in urban and residential areas of York. Uranium and arsenic (which occur naturally in the sediments that make up the aquifers in the area) also were detected in 2002 at concentrations less than drinking-water standards but still of concern. Overall, the current NAWQA study found that three primary factors affect the movement and fate of contaminants and the vulnerability of the public-supply well in York: (1) timing of water entry (recharge) to the aquifer, (2) short-circuiting of natural flow paths through inactive wells, and (3) natural geochemical conditions of the aquifer. Study findings are intended to help water managers, drinking-water suppliers, policymakers, and scientists to better understand how and why contamination of public-supply wells occurs and whether water quality may improve or degrade. Additionally, study findings may be used to evaluate various pumping, resource-development, and land-management scenarios.

Downscaled climate projections for the Southeast United States: evaluation and use for ecological applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wootten, Adrienne; Smith, Kara; Boyles, Ryan; Terando, Adam; Stefanova, Lydia; Misra, Vasru; Smith, Tom; Blodgett, David L.; Semazzi, Fredrick

2014-01-01

Climate change is likely to have many effects on natural ecosystems in the Southeast U.S. The National Climate Assessment Southeast Technical Report (SETR) indicates that natural ecosystems in the Southeast are likely to be affected by warming temperatures, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, and changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration. To better assess these how climate changes could affect multiple sectors, including ecosystems, climatologists have created several downscaled climate projections (or downscaled datasets) that contain information from the global climate models (GCMs) translated to regional or local scales. The process of creating these downscaled datasets, known as downscaling, can be carried out using a broad range of statistical or numerical modeling techniques. The rapid proliferation of techniques that can be used for downscaling and the number of downscaled datasets produced in recent years present many challenges for scientists and decisionmakers in assessing the impact or vulnerability of a given species or ecosystem to climate change. Given the number of available downscaled datasets, how do these model outputs compare to each other? Which variables are available, and are certain downscaled datasets more appropriate for assessing vulnerability of a particular species? Given the desire to use these datasets for impact and vulnerability assessments and the lack of comparison between these datasets, the goal of this report is to synthesize the information available in these downscaled datasets and provide guidance to scientists and natural resource managers with specific interests in ecological modeling and conservation planning related to climate change in the Southeast U.S. This report enables the Southeast Climate Science Center (SECSC) to address an important strategic goal of providing scientific information and guidance that will enable resource managers and other participants in Landscape Conservation Cooperatives to make science-based climate change adaptation decisions.

Engagement with indigenous peoples and honoring traditional knowledge systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maldonado, Julie; Bennett, Bull; Chief, Karletta; Cochran, Patricia; Cozetto, Karen; Gough, Bob; Hiza-Redsteer, Margaret M.; Lynn, Kathy; Maynard, Nancy; Voggesser, Garrit

2016-01-01

The organizers of the 2014 US National Climate Assessment (NCA) made a concerted effort to reach out to and collaborate with Indigenous peoples, resulting in the most comprehensive information to date on climate change impacts to Indigenous peoples in a US national assessment. Yet, there is still much room for improvement in assessment processes to ensure adequate recognition of Indigenous perspectives and Indigenous knowledge systems. This article discusses the process used in creating the Indigenous Peoples, Land, and Resources NCA chapter by a team comprised of tribal members, agencies, academics, and non-governmental organizations, who worked together to solicit, collect, and synthesize traditional knowledges and data from a diverse array of Indigenous communities across the US. It also discusses the synergy and discord between traditional knowledge systems and science and the emergence of cross-cutting issues and vulnerabilities for Indigenous peoples. The challenges of coalescing information about climate change and its impacts on Indigenous communities are outlined along with recommendations on the types of information to include in future assessment outputs. We recommend that future assessments – not only NCA, but other relevant local, regional, national, and international efforts aimed at the translation of climate information and assessments into meaningful actions – should support integration of Indigenous perspectives in a sustained way that builds respectful relationships and effectively engages Indigenous communities. Given the large number of tribes in the US and the current challenges and unique vulnerabilities of Indigenous communities, a special report focusing solely on climate change and Indigenous peoples is warranted.This article is part of a special issue on “The National Climate Assessment: Innovations in Science and Engagement” edited by Katharine Jacobs, Susanne Moser, and James Buizer.

Protection detail. Protecting against breach of electronic protected health information.

PubMed

Blass, Gerry; Miller, Susan A

2010-01-01

Covered entities need to conduct risk assessments that cover the requirements of HIPAA, HITECH and Meaningful use, and create a process for steady and consistent mitigation of known gaps and vulnerabilities based on risk. Reducing risk of vulnerabilities of unauthorized access to your ePHI can be done via safeguards and controls, plus audits and monitoring. When reducing risk is outside of a covered entities control, audits and monitoring are required in order to demonstrate due diligence. Know where your ePHI is stored, where it is at risk, and take steps now to reduce or eliminate the risk. Encrypt vulnerable locations. Encrypt sensitive data. By doing so, you will be protecting your organization by reducing risk of breach of ePHI. Finally, don't forget what is sometimes considered to be the hardest part--documenting your compliance activities in order to demonstrate evidence of due diligence in and avoid major $$$$ penalties for negligence under the HITECH Act of 2009.

Disentangling Emotion Processes in Borderline Personality Disorder: Physiological and Self-reported Assessment of Biological Vulnerability, Baseline Intensity, and Reactivity to Emotionally-Evocative Stimuli

PubMed Central

Kuo, Janice R.; Linehan, Marsha M.

2014-01-01

This study investigated Linehan’s (1993) theory that individuals meeting criteria for borderline personality disorder (BPD) have high biological vulnerability to emotion dysregulation, including high baseline emotional intensity and high reactivity to emotionally-evocative stimuli. Twenty individuals with BPD, 20 age-matched individuals with generalized social anxiety disorder (SAD), and 20 age-matched normal controls (NC) participated in two separate emotion induction conditions, a standardized condition and a personally-relevant condition. Respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), skin conductance response (SCR), and self-report measures were collected throughout the experiment. BPD participants displayed heightened biological vulnerability compared with NC as indicated by reduced basal RSA. BPD participants also exhibited high baseline emotional intensity, characterized by heightened SCR and heightened self-reported negative emotions at baseline. However, the BPD group did not display heightened reactivity as their physiological and self-reported changes from baseline to the emotion inductions tasks were not greater than the other two groups. PMID:19685950

Risk assessment in fractured porous media with particular reference to water catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enzenhoefer, R.; Helmig, R.; Nowak, W.; Binning, P. J.

2009-04-01

About 75% of the drinking water in Germany is drawn from groundwater. Karstic features can enhance the migration of contaminants to well fields, thus causing an elevated risk of contamination. In order to delineate well-head protection zones, the karstic flow and transport processes have to be understood and areas of high vulnerability have to be known from the perspective of a water constructor or manager. The trend in European legislation is to require probabilistic risk analysis in water supply management (see Water Safety Plan [WHO]). This will require to assess the 50 day line, and other indicators for well vulnerability, within stochastic frameworks. Also, the economic principles of risk (expected damage) minimization or cost/benefit optimization require probabilistic assessment of well vulnerability and well down time after contamination. The aim of this study is to provide a quantitative probabilistic approach to assess well vulnerability in a karstic system, meeting the future needs of water managers and expected legal requirements. To this end, we use a risk concept based on the four intrinsic well-vulnerability measures by Frind [2006], and transfer them to a probabilistic framework. The four vulnerability criteria are: (1)The time between a spill event and peak concentration arrival at the well, (2)The level of peak concentration relative to the spill concentration, (3)The time to breach a threshold concentration (e.g. drinking-water standard) and (4)The time of exposure (i.e., the time during which the threshold concentration is exceeded). This information helps the water manager to prioritize quantitatively the most sensitive areas with the highest risk to the well. To these areas the most efficient protection measures can be applied. Also, contamination sites can be ranked in the relevance of their remediation necessity. In order to model flow and transport processes in a karstic system, the aquifer has to be represented by a stochastic model concept. As a consequence, the four vulnerability criteria are assessed stochastically. The stochastic approach increases computational costs. As a counter-measure, we approximate the transient contaminant transport process by a higher-order expansion in the temporal moments of breakthrough, which we simulate directly from steady-state moment-generating equations [Harvey and Gorelick, 1995]. The computational time saved by the approximation in transient behaviour is then available for stochastic modelling. For further computational savings, we adopt the reverse formulation of well contamination. With the help of a geostatistical fracture-matrix generator [here: Silberhorn-Hemminger, 2002] we generate artificial fractured-matrix systems, representing the mean characteristic karst properties (e.g. fracture density, etc.) within the study area or any artificial aquifer domain. In a Monte Carlo approach, an ensemble of 1000 fracture-matrix systems are randomly generated, and the flow and transport processes are calculated in DuMuX as a one phase two component model. With an inverse formulation of the steady-state transport problem, the capture zone of the well can be calculated for each realization. The mean arrival time at the well may be calculated directly from the first temporal moment equation. Peak contamination level, peak arrival time, threshold arrival time and exposure time require more information than merely the first temporal moment. In order to reconstruct dispersive contaminant dilution and the shape of the breakthrough curve, the second central temporal moment equation (and higher order moment equations) are applied. Then, by statistical analysis of the ensemble results, all four intrinsic well vulnerability measures can be calculated. The final protection area outlines are given by the maximum acceptable risk level for a water manager towards its water supply from the catchment perspective. To validate our approach for a real case scenario, the whole risk concept will later be transferred to a study area, which is located on the Swabian Alb northeast of Ulm at the border to Bavaria. The project partner "Landeswasserversorgung" supplies approx. 60 million m³ groundwater per year for about 3 million inhabitants in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, including Stuttgart. Most of the aquifer is Upper Jurassic (Malm) and some parts are Quaternary. For a better understanding of the geological setting and the validation of the model, field tests (tracer tests etc.) can be suggested and optimized by optimal design techniques. Literature: Frind, E.O., Molson, J.W., and Rudolph D.L., "Well Vulnerability: A Quantitative Approach for Source Water Protection", Groundwater, Vol. 44, 2006 Harvey and Gorelick, "Temporal moment-generating equations: Modeling transport and mass transfer in heterogeneous aquifers", Water Resources Research, Vol. 31, No.8, Pages 1895-1911, 1995 Hemminger, A., Neunhäuserer, L. and R. Helmig, "The Reliability of a Stochastic Fracture Generator", ModelCARE 99: International Conference on Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modeling - Coping with uncertainty (20. - 23. September 1999, ETH Zurich, Switzerland). IAHS Redbook, Zürich, Schweiz, 2000 World Health Organisation (WHO), „Water Safety plans: Managing drinking-water quality from catchment to consumer", prepared by Annette Davison, Guy Howard, Melita Stevens, Phil Callan, Lorna Fewtrell, Dan Deere and Jamie Bartram, 2005 http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/dwq/wsp0506/en/index.html

A TEST OF WATERSHED CLASSIFICATION SYSTEMS FOR ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

To facilitate extrapolation among watersheds, ecological risk assessments should be based on a model of underlying factors influencing watershed response, particularly vulnerability. We propose a conceptual model of landscape vulnerability to serve as a basis for watershed classi...

Semi-quantitative assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings for the landslide risk analysis. A case study in the Loures municipality, Lisbon district, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillard-Gonçalves, Clémence; Zêzere, José Luis; Pereira, Susana; Garcia, Ricardo

2016-04-01

The physical vulnerability of the buildings of Loures (a Portuguese municipality) to landslides was assessed, and the landslide risk was computed as the product of the landslide hazard by the vulnerability and the market economic value of the buildings. First, the hazard was assessed by combining the spatio-temporal probability and the frequency-magnitude relationship of the landslides, which was established by plotting the probability of a landslide area. The susceptibility of deep-seated and shallow landslides was assessed by a bi-variate statistical method and was mapped. The annual and multiannual spatio-temporal probabilities were estimated, providing a landslide hazard model. Then, an assessment of buildings vulnerability to landslides, based on an inquiry of a pool of landslide European experts, was developed and applied to the study area. The inquiry was based on nine magnitude scenarios and four structural building types. A sub-pool of the landslide experts who know the study area was extracted from the pool, and the variability of the answers coming from the pool and the sub-pool was assessed with standard deviation. Moreover, the average vulnerability of the basic geographic entities was compared by changing the map unit and applying the vulnerability to all the buildings of a test site (included in the study area), the inventory of which was listed on the field. Next, the market economic value of the buildings was calculated using an adaptation of the Portuguese Tax Services approach. Finally, the annual and multiannual landslide risk was computed for the nine landslide magnitude scenarios and different spatio-temporal probabilities by multiplying the potential loss (Vulnerability × Economic Value) by the hazard probability. As a rule, the vulnerability values given by the sub-pool of experts who know the study area are higher than those given by the European experts, namely for the high magnitude landslides. The obtained vulnerabilities vary from 0.2 to 1 as a function of the structural building types and the landslide magnitude, and are maximal for 10 and 20 meters landslide depths. However, the highest annual risk was found for the 3 m deep landslides, with a maximum value of 25.68 € per 5 m pixel, which is explained by the combination of a relatively high frequency in the Loures municipality with a substantial potential damage.

Assessing European wild fire vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oehler, F.; Oliveira, S.; Barredo, J. I.; Camia, A.; Ayanz, J. San Miguel; Pettenella, D.; Mavsar, R.

2012-04-01

Wild fire vulnerability is a measure of potential socio-economic damage caused by a fire in a specific area. As such it is an important component of long-term fire risk management, helping policy-makers take informed decisions about adequate expenditures for fire prevention and suppression, and to target those regions at highest risk. This paper presents a first approach to assess wild fire vulnerability at the European level. A conservative approach was chosen that assesses the cost of restoring the previous land cover after a potential fire. Based on the CORINE Land Cover, a restoration cost was established for each land cover class at country level, and an average restoration time was assigned according to the recovery capacity of the land cover. The damage caused by fire was then assessed by discounting the cost of restoring the previous land cover over the restoration period. Three different vulnerability scenarios were considered assuming low, medium and high fire severity causing different levels of damage. Over Europe, the potential damage of wild land fires ranges from 10 - 13, 732 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for low fire severity, 32 - 45,772 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for medium fire severity and 54 - 77,812 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for high fire severity. The least vulnerable are natural grasslands, moors and heathland and sclerophyllous vegetation, while the highest cost occurs for restoring broad-leaved forest. Preliminary validation comparing these estimates with official damage assessments for past fires shows reasonable results. The restoration cost approach allows for a straightforward, data extensive assessment of fire vulnerability at European level. A disadvantage is the inherent simplification of the evaluation procedure with the underestimation of non-markets goods and services. Thus, a second approach has been developed, valuing individual wild land goods and services and assessing their annual flow which is lost for a certain period of time in case of a fire event. However, due to limitations in data availability, this approach of environmental accounting is not fully implemented yet. Keywords: fire vulnerability, damage assessment, land cover restoration, long-term fire risk, European scale

Performance-based methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibin, Lin; Lili, Xie; Maosheng, Gong; Ming, Li

2010-06-01

This paper presents a performance-based methodology for the assessment of seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the HAZUS methodology and the improved capacitydemand-diagram method. The spectral displacement ( S d ) of performance points on a capacity curve is used to estimate the damage level of a building. The relationship between S d and peak ground acceleration (PGA) is established, and then a new vulnerability function is expressed in terms of PGA. Furthermore, the expected value of the seismic capacity index (SCev) is provided to estimate the seismic capacity of buildings based on the probability distribution of damage levels and the corresponding seismic capacity index. The results indicate that the proposed vulnerability methodology is able to assess seismic damage of a large number of building stock directly and quickly following an earthquake. The SCev provides an effective index to measure the seismic capacity of buildings and illustrate the relationship between the seismic capacity of buildings and seismic action. The estimated result is compared with damage surveys of the cities of Dujiangyan and Jiangyou in the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, revealing that the methodology is acceptable for seismic risk assessment and decision making. The primary reasons for discrepancies between the estimated results and the damage surveys are discussed.

Vulnerability of forest vegetation to anthropogenic climate change in China.

PubMed

Wan, Ji-Zhong; Wang, Chun-Jing; Qu, Hong; Liu, Ran; Zhang, Zhi-Xiang

2018-04-15

China has large areas of forest vegetation that are critical to biodiversity and carbon storage. It is important to assess vulnerability of forest vegetation to anthropogenic climate change in China because it may change the distributions and species compositions of forest vegetation. Based on the equilibrium assumption of forest communities across different spatial and temporal scales, we used species distribution modelling coupled with endemics-area relationship to assess the vulnerability of 204 forest communities across 16 vegetation types under different climate change scenarios in China. By mapping the vulnerability of forest vegetation to climate change, we determined that 78.9% and 61.8% of forest vegetation should be relatively stable in the low and high concentration scenarios, respectively. There were large vulnerable areas of forest vegetation under anthropogenic climate change in northeastern and southwestern China. The vegetation of subtropical mixed broadleaf evergreen and deciduous forest, cold-temperate and temperate mountains needleleaf forest, and temperate mixed needleleaf and broadleaf deciduous forest types were the most vulnerable under climate change. Furthermore, the vulnerability of forest vegetation may increase due to high greenhouse gas concentrations. Given our estimates of forest vegetation vulnerability to anthropogenic climate change, it is critical that we ensure long-term monitoring of forest vegetation responses to future climate change to assess our projections against observations. We need to better integrate projected changes of temperature and precipitation into climate-adaptive conservation strategies for forest vegetation in China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

From Risk Assessment to Risk Management: Matching Interventions to Adolescent Offenders’ Strengths and Vulnerabilities

PubMed Central

Singh, Jay P.; Desmarais, Sarah L.; Sellers, Brian G.; Hylton, Tatiana; Tirotti, Melissa; Van Dorn, Richard A.

2013-01-01

Though considerable research has examined the validity of risk assessment tools in predicting adverse outcomes in justice-involved adolescents, the extent to which risk assessments are translated into risk management strategies and, importantly, the association between this link and adverse outcomes has gone largely unexamined. To address these shortcomings, the Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model was used to examine associations between identified strengths and vulnerabilities, interventions, and institutional outcomes for justice-involved youth. Data were collected from risk assessments completed using the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV) for 120 adolescent offenders (96 boys and 24 girls). Interventions and outcomes were extracted from institutional records. Mixed evidence of adherence to RNR principles was found. Accordant to the risk principle, adolescent offenders judged to have more strengths had more strength-based interventions in their service plans, though adolescent offenders with more vulnerabilities did not have more interventions targeting their vulnerabilities. With respect to the need and responsivity principles, vulnerabilities and strengths identified as particularly relevant to the individual youth's risk of adverse outcomes were addressed in the service plans about half and a quarter of the time, respectively. Greater adherence to the risk and need principles was found to predict significantly the likelihood of externalizing outcomes. Findings suggest some gaps between risk assessment and risk management and highlight the potential usefulness of strength-based approaches to intervention. PMID:25346561

A framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment for southwest U.S. military installations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chadwick, B.; Flick, Reinhard; Helly, J.; Nishikawa, Tracy; Pei, Fang Wang; O'Reilly, W.; Guza, R.; Bromirski, Peter; Young, A.; Crampton, W.; Wild, B.; Canner, I.

2011-01-01

We describe an analysis framework to determine military installation vulnerabilities under increases in local mean sea level as projected over the next century. The effort is in response to an increasing recognition of potential climate change ramifications for national security and recommendations that DoD conduct assessments of the impact on U.S. military installations of climate change. Results of the effort described here focus on development of a conceptual framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment at coastal military installations in the southwest U.S. We introduce the vulnerability assessment in the context of a risk assessment paradigm that incorporates sources in the form of future sea level conditions, pathways of impact including inundation, flooding, erosion and intrusion, and a range of military installation specific receptors such as critical infrastructure and training areas. A unique aspect of the methodology is the capability to develop wave climate projections from GCM outputs and transform these to future wave conditions at specific coastal sites. Future sea level scenarios are considered in the context of installation sensitivity curves which reveal response thresholds specific to each installation, pathway and receptor. In the end, our goal is to provide a military-relevant framework for assessment of accelerated SLR vulnerability, and develop the best scientifically-based scenarios of waves, tides and storms and their implications for DoD installations in the southwestern U.S.

Coastal vulnerability: climate change and natural hazards perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romieu, E.; Vinchon, C.

2009-04-01

Introduction Studying coastal zones as a territorial concept (Integrated coastal zone management) is an essential issue for managers, as they have to consider many different topics (natural hazards, resources management, tourism, climate change…). The recent approach in terms of "coastal vulnerability" studies (since the 90's) is the main tool used nowadays to help them in evaluating impacts of natural hazards on coastal zones, specially considering climate change. This present communication aims to highlight the difficulties in integrating this concept in risk analysis as it is usually practiced in natural hazards sciences. 1) Coastal vulnerability as a recent issue The concept of coastal vulnerability mainly appears in the International panel on climate change works of 1992 (IPCC. 2001), where it is presented as essential for climate change adaptation. The concept has been defined by a common methodology which proposes the assessment of seven indicators, in regards to a sea level rise of 1m in 2100: people affected, people at risk, capital value at loss, land at loss, wetland at loss, potential adaptation costs, people at risk assuming this adaptation. Many national assessments have been implemented (Nicholls, et al. 1995) and a global assessment was proposed for three indicators (Nicholls, et al. 1999). The DINAS-Coast project reuses this methodology to produce the DIVA-tool for coastal managers (Vafeidis, et al. 2004). Besides, many other methodologies for national or regional coastal vulnerability assessments have been developed (review by (UNFCCC. 2008). The use of aggregated vulnerability indicators (including geomorphology, hydrodynamics, climate change…) is widespread: the USGS coastal vulnerability index is used worldwide and was completed by a social vulnerability index (Boruff, et al. 2005). Those index-based methods propose a vulnerability mapping which visualise indicators of erosion, submersion and/or socio economic sensibility in coastal zones. This concept is a great tool for policy makers to help managing their action and taking into account climate change (McFadden, et al. 2006). However, in those approaches, vulnerability is the output itself (cost of effective impacts, geomorphologic impacts…), but is not integrated it in a risk analysis. Furthermore, those studies emerged from a climatic perspective, which leads to consider climate change as a hazard or pressure whereas risk studies commonly consider hazards such as erosion and flooding, where climate change modifies the drivers of the hazard. 2) The natural hazards and socio economic perspectives In order to reduce impacts of natural hazards, decision makers need a complete risk assessment (probability of losses). Past studies on natural risks (landslide, earthquake...) highlighted the pertinence of defining risk as a combination of : (1)hazard occurrence and intensity, (2) exposition and (3)vulnerability of assets and population to this hazard (e.g. Douglas. 2007, Sarewitz, et al. 2003). Following the Renn and Klinke risk assessment frame, high uncertainties associated with coastal risks considering climatic and anthropic change highlights the importance of working on that concept of "vulnerability" (Klinke and Renn. 2002). Past studies on vulnerability assessment showed a frequently mentioned gap between "impact based" and "human based" points of view. It is nowadays a great issue for natural risk sciences. Many research efforts in FP7 projects such as MOVE and ENSURE focus on integrating the different dimensions of vulnerability (Turner, et al. 2003, Birkmann. 2006). Coastal risk studies highlight another issue of concern. We previously detailed the different use of the term "vulnerability" in the coastal context, quite different of the "natural risk's" use. Interaction of social, economic and physical sciences is considered within two french research projects (Vulsaco, Miseeva), in order to identify the vulnerability of a system to flooding or erosion (i.e. its characteristics that create potential harm), and integrate them in a risk assessment. Global change is considered by modifications of hazard, anthropogenic pressure and exposition, in order to point out possible modification of vulnerabilities. 3) Learning from both perspectives Coastal vulnerability in its "end in itself" and climate change dimension is a widespread tool for decision makers but it can be inadequate when vulnerability is a component of risk. This is mainly due to the consideration of climate change as a "hazard", so that coastal vulnerability is seen as the possible adverse impacts of climate change. As a matter of fact, this concept is clearly well considered by managers, who feel deeply concerned by climate change. However, coastal risk managers would gain in considering climate change more like a driver able to modify existing hazards than like the pressure in itself. Using this concept could lead to new perspectives of coastal risk mitigation for decision makers (social vulnerability, risk perception…), learning from other disciplines and sciences thanks to research projects such as MOVE (FP7). Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the BRGM coastal team for rich discussions and fruitful collaborations in coastal vulnerability studies, more specially Déborah Idier for animating the Vulsaco project and Manuel Garcin for his work on tsunamis in Sri Lanka. They are also grateful to the MISEEVA and MOVE teams, which are doing some great trans-disciplinary work. References Birkmann, J., 2006. Measuring vulnerability to Natural Hazards : towards disaster resilient societies. United Nations University Press. Boruff, B. J., Emrich, C., Cutter, S. L., 2005. Erosion hazard vulnerability of US coastal counties. Journal of Coastal Research. 21, 932-942. Douglas, J., 2007. Physical vulnerability modelling in natural hazard risk assessment. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 7, 283-288. IPCC, 2001. Climate change 2001 : synthesis report. A contribution of working groups I, II and III to the Third Assesment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Klinke, A. and Renn, O., 2002. A new approach to risk evaluation and management : risk based, precaution based and discourse based strategies. Risk Analysis. 22, 1071-1094. McFadden, L., Nicholls, R.J., Penning-Rowsell, E. (Eds.), 2006. Managing coastal vulnerability. Elsevier Science. Nicholls, R. J., Hoozemans, F. M. J., Marchand, M., 1999. Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses. Global Environmental Change, Part A: Human and Policy Dimensions. 9, S69-S87. Nicholls, R. J., Leatherman, S. P., Volonte, C. R., 1995. Impacts and responses to sea-level rise; qualitative and quantitative assessments; Potential impacts of accelerated sea-level rise on developing countries. Journal of Coastal Research. Special issue 14, 26-43. Sarewitz, D., Pielke, R., Keykhah, M., 2003. Vulnerability and Risk: Some Thoughts from a Political and Policy Perspective. Risk Analysis. 23, 805-810. Turner, B. L.,II, Kasperson, R. E., Matson, P. A., McCarthy, J. J., Corell, R. W., Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Kasperson, J. X., Luers, A., Martello, M. L., Polsky, C., Pulsipher, A., Schiller, A., 2003. A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA. 100, 8074-8079. UNFCCC, 2008. Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. Vafeidis, A., Nicholls, R., McFadden, L., 2004. Developing a database for global vulnerability analysis of coastal zones: The DINAS-COAST project and the DIVA tool.

Business logic for geoprocessing of distributed geodata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiehle, Christian

2006-12-01

This paper describes the development of a business-logic component for the geoprocessing of distributed geodata. The business logic acts as a mediator between the data and the user, therefore playing a central role in any spatial information system. The component is used in service-oriented architectures to foster the reuse of existing geodata inventories. Based on a geoscientific case study of groundwater vulnerability assessment and mapping, the demands for such architectures are identified with special regard to software engineering tasks. Methods are derived from the field of applied Geosciences (Hydrogeology), Geoinformatics, and Software Engineering. In addition to the development of a business logic component, a forthcoming Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) specification is introduced: the OGC Web Processing Service (WPS) specification. A sample application is introduced to demonstrate the potential of WPS for future information systems. The sample application Geoservice Groundwater Vulnerability is described in detail to provide insight into the business logic component, and demonstrate how information can be generated out of distributed geodata. This has the potential to significantly accelerate the assessment and mapping of groundwater vulnerability. The presented concept is easily transferable to other geoscientific use cases dealing with distributed data inventories. Potential application fields include web-based geoinformation systems operating on distributed data (e.g. environmental planning systems, cadastral information systems, and others).

An approach to developing local climate change environmental public health indicators, vulnerability assessments, and projections of future impacts.

PubMed

Houghton, Adele; English, Paul

2014-01-01

Environmental public health indicators (EPHIs) are used by local, state, and federal health agencies to track the status of environmental hazards; exposure to those hazards; health effects of exposure; and public health interventions designed to reduce or prevent the hazard, exposure, or resulting health effect. Climate and health EPHIs have been developed at the state, federal, and international levels. However, they are also needed at the local level to track variations in community vulnerability and to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions designed to enhance community resilience. This review draws on a guidance document developed by the U.S. Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists' State Environmental Health Indicators Collaborative climate change working group to present a three-tiered approach to develop local climate change EPHIs. Local climate change EPHIs can assist local health departments (LHDs) in implementing key steps of the 10 essential public health services and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Building Resilience Against Climate Effects framework. They also allow LHDs to incorporate climate-related trends into the larger health department planning process and can be used to perform vulnerability assessments which can be leveraged to ensure that interventions designed to address climate change do not exacerbate existing health disparities.

An Approach to Developing Local Climate Change Environmental Public Health Indicators, Vulnerability Assessments, and Projections of Future Impacts

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Environmental public health indicators (EPHIs) are used by local, state, and federal health agencies to track the status of environmental hazards; exposure to those hazards; health effects of exposure; and public health interventions designed to reduce or prevent the hazard, exposure, or resulting health effect. Climate and health EPHIs have been developed at the state, federal, and international levels. However, they are also needed at the local level to track variations in community vulnerability and to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions designed to enhance community resilience. This review draws on a guidance document developed by the U.S. Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists' State Environmental Health Indicators Collaborative climate change working group to present a three-tiered approach to develop local climate change EPHIs. Local climate change EPHIs can assist local health departments (LHDs) in implementing key steps of the 10 essential public health services and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Building Resilience Against Climate Effects framework. They also allow LHDs to incorporate climate-related trends into the larger health department planning process and can be used to perform vulnerability assessments which can be leveraged to ensure that interventions designed to address climate change do not exacerbate existing health disparities. PMID:25349621

Comparative studies of groundwater vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maria, Rizka

2018-02-01

Pollution of groundwater is a primary issue because aquifers are susceptible to contamination from land use and anthropogenic impacts. Groundwater susceptibility is intrinsic and specific. Intrinsic vulnerability refers to an aquifer that is susceptible to pollution and to the geological and hydrogeological features. Vulnerability assessment is an essential step in assessing groundwater contamination. This approach provides a visual analysis for helping planners and decision makers to achieve the sustainable management of water resources. Comparative studies are applying different methodologies to result in the basic evaluation of the groundwater vulnerability. Based on the comparison of methods, there are several advantages and disadvantages. SI can be overlaid on DRASTIC and Pesticide DRASTIC to extract the divergence in sensitivity. DRASTIC identifies low susceptibility and underestimates the pollution risk while Pesticide DRASTIC and SI represents better risk and is recommended for the future. SINTACS method generates very high vulnerability zones with surface waters and aquifer interactions. GOD method could be adequate for vulnerability mapping in karstified carbonate aquifers at small-moderate scales, and EPIK method can be used for large scale. GOD method is suitable for designing large area such as land management while DRASTIC has good accuracy and more real use in geoenvironmental detailed studies.

Beyond exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity: A response based ecological framework to assess species climate change vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fortini, Lucas B.; Schubert, Olivia

2017-01-01

As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informing climate adaptation efforts. VAs commonly integrate multiple sources of information by utilizing a framework that distinguishes factors relevant to species exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, this framework was originally developed for human systems, and its use to evaluate species vulnerability has serious practical and theoretical limitations. By instead defining vulnerability as the degree to which a species is unable to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., toleration of projected changes, migration to new climate-compatible areas, enduring in microrefugia, and evolutionary adaptation), we can bring VAs into the realm of ecological science without applying borrowed abstract concepts that have consistently challenged species-centric research and management. This response-based framework to assess species vulnerability to climate change allows better integration of relevant ecological data and past research, yielding results with much clearer implications for conservation and research prioritization.

Drought vulnerability assessment for prioritising drought warning implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, Gustavo; Faneca Sànchez, Marta; Mwangi, Emmah; Barbosa, Paulo; Iglesias, Ana; Garrote, Luis; Werner, Micha

2014-05-01

Drought warning provides a potentially efficient approach to mitigation of drought impacts, and should be targeted at areas most vulnerable to being adversely impacted. Assessing drought vulnerability is, however, complex and needs to consider susceptibility to drought impact as well as the capacity to cope with drought. In this paper a Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) is proposed that considers four primary components that reflect the capacity of society to adapt to drought; the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the available infrastructure and technology. The DVI is established as a weighted combination of these four components, each a composite of selected indicators. Constituent indicators are calculated based on national and/or regional census data and statistics, and while the resulting DVI should not be considered an absolute measure of drought vulnerability it does provide for a prioritisation of areas that can be used to target drought warning efforts. Sensitivity analysis of weights applied show the established DVI to be robust. Through the DVI the development of drought forecasting and warning can be targeted at the most vulnerable areas. The proposed DVI is applied at both the continental scale in Africa to assess drought vulnerability of the different nations across Africa, and at the national level in Kenya, allowing for prioritisation of the counties within Kenya to drought vulnerability. Results show the relative vulnerability of countries and counties vulnerable to drought. At the continental scale, Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad are found to be the countries most vulnerable to drought. At the national level, the relative vulnerability of the counties across Kenya is found, with counties in the North-East of Kenya having the highest values of DVI. At the country level results were compared with drought disaster information from the EM-DAT disaster database, showing a good agreement between recorded drought impact and the established DVI classes. Kenya counties most vulnerable to drought are primarily located in the North-East of the country, showing a reasonable agreement with the spatial distribution of impacts of the 2010/2011 drought, despite the drought itself being more widespread.

A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf.

PubMed

Hare, Jonathan A; Morrison, Wendy E; Nelson, Mark W; Stachura, Megan M; Teeters, Eric J; Griffis, Roger B; Alexander, Michael A; Scott, James D; Alade, Larry; Bell, Richard J; Chute, Antonie S; Curti, Kiersten L; Curtis, Tobey H; Kircheis, Daniel; Kocik, John F; Lucey, Sean M; McCandless, Camilla T; Milke, Lisa M; Richardson, David E; Robillard, Eric; Walsh, Harvey J; McManus, M Conor; Marancik, Katrin E; Griswold, Carolyn A

2016-01-01

Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and decadal variability.

A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf

PubMed Central

Hare, Jonathan A.; Morrison, Wendy E.; Nelson, Mark W.; Stachura, Megan M.; Teeters, Eric J.; Griffis, Roger B.; Alexander, Michael A.; Scott, James D.; Alade, Larry; Bell, Richard J.; Chute, Antonie S.; Curti, Kiersten L.; Curtis, Tobey H.; Kircheis, Daniel; Kocik, John F.; Lucey, Sean M.; McCandless, Camilla T.; Milke, Lisa M.; Richardson, David E.; Robillard, Eric; Walsh, Harvey J.; McManus, M. Conor; Marancik, Katrin E.; Griswold, Carolyn A.

2016-01-01

Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and decadal variability. PMID:26839967

Vulnerability Assessment: The Role of Coastal Informal Settlement Growth to Social Vulnerability in Genuk Sub-District, Semarang City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sariffuddin; Dwi Astuti, Khristiana; Farhaeni, Gustika; Wahdah, Lutfiyatul

2017-02-01

Tidal, land subsidence and flooding in Semarang City brought many consequences to the city’s economic and social conditions. In the economic sector, the largest contributor to GDP derives from industries that are located in the coastal area. The environmental problems also affect the ability of social adaptation and vulnerability. This issue encourages the efforts of the public and the government. City conditions are constantly changing force people to adapt for survival, through endogenous. At the same time, the government is trying to help for the same goal, through a variety of urban development. Although it has the same goal, many found gaps, which, if not followed could increase the vulnerability of society and lead social dysfunction. According to of the phenomenon, this article is based on questionnaire surveys, observation, and previous studies in Semarang City. Quantitative data obtained from questionnaire surveys of 133 respondents of the household. The questionnaire distributed in 3 villages in Genuk sub-district, i.e. Terboyo Kulon, Terboyo Wetan, and Trimulyo. Industrialisation in the coastal area is main caused informal settlement hyper growth in the coastal area. For the present study sought to find out how the process of adaptation that naturally affects the vulnerability of communities using qualitative methods. The results showed the social, economic condition is strongly influenced adaptability of society.

Report: Results of Technical Network Vulnerability Assessment: EPA’s National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Laboratory

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #12-P-0900, September 27, 2012. Vulnerability testing of networked resources located in the NVFEL identified Internet Protocol addresses with potentially 9 critical-risk, 70 high-risk, and 297 medium-risk vulnerabilities.

Spatial vulnerability units - expert-based spatial modelling of socio-economic vulnerability in the Salzach catchment, Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kienberger, S.; Lang, S.; Zeil, P.

2009-05-01

The assessment of vulnerability has moved to centre-stage of the debate between different scientific disciplines related to climate change and disaster risk management. Composed by a combination of social, economical, physical and environmental factors the assessment implies combining different domains as well as quantitative with qualitative data and makes it therefore a challenge to identify an integrated metric for vulnerability. In this paper we define vulnerability in the context of climate change, targeting the hazard "flood". The developed methodology is being tested in the Salzach river catchment in Austria, which is largely prone to floods. The proposed methodology allows the spatial quantification of vulnerability and the identification of vulnerability units. These units build upon the geon concept which acts as a framework for the regionalization of continuous spatial information according to defined parameters of homogeneity. Using geons, we are capable of transforming singular domains of information on specific systemic components to policy-relevant, conditioned information. Considering the fact that vulnerability is not directly measurable and due to its complex dimension and social construction an expert-based approach has been chosen. Established methodologies such as Multicriteria Decision Analysis, Delphi exercises and regionalization approaches are being integrated. The method not only enables the assessment of vulnerability independent from administrative boundaries, but also applies an aggregation mode which reflects homogenous vulnerability units. This supports decision makers to reflect on complex issues such as vulnerability. Next to that, the advantage is to decompose the units to their underlying domains. Feedback from disaster management experts indicates that the approach helps to improve the design of measures aimed at strengthening preparedness and mitigation. From this point of view, we reach a step closer towards validation of the proposed method, comprising critical user-oriented aspects like adequateness, practicability and usability of the provided results in general.

The Role of Narcissistic Vulnerability in Predicting Adult Posttraumatic Symptoms from Childhood Sexual Abuse.

PubMed

Bachar, Eytan; Canetti, Laura; Hadar, Hilit; Baruch, Julia; Dor, Yehuda; Freedman, Sara

2015-10-01

The aim of the present study is to determine whether narcissistic vulnerability can aid in clarifying the debate regarding the relationship between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and adulthood adjustment to traumatic events. 157 survivors (mean age = 31.1, SD = 10.9) of a traumatic event (war activities and road and work accidents) were assessed 1 week, 1, and 4 months following the event. Of the 157 participants, 15 reported experiencing CSA, and 26 reported experiencing childhood physical abuse (CPA). In the first-week assessment, patients were administered the Narcissistic Vulnerability Scale (NVS) and the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI). In the follow-up assessments, subjects were interviewed on the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale. Narcissistic vulnerability was found, both in 1- and 4-month follow-ups, to increase the likelihood of participants who experienced CSA to develop PTSD symptoms later in their adult life, when exposed to other additional trauma. Narcissistic vulnerability, in both follow-ups, did not increase the likelihood of participants who experienced CPA to develop PTSD symptoms later in their life when exposed to other additional trauma. The NVS predicted the development of PTSD symptoms in the whole sample, both in the 1- and 4-month follow-ups, above and beyond the prediction of the BDI. In other words, narcissistic vulnerability can add additional information above and beyond general negative emotionality. In conclusion, it is recommended to take into consideration the interplay between CSA and the individual's narcissistic vulnerability when assessing the long term effects of CSA such as acute or chronic PTSD.

Groundwater vulnerability mapping of Qatar aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baalousha, Husam Musa

2016-12-01

Qatar is one of the most arid countries in the world with limited water resources. With little rainfall and no surface water, groundwater is the only natural source of fresh water in the country. Whilst the country relies mainly on desalination of seawater to secure water supply, groundwater has extensively been used for irrigation over the last three decades, which caused adverse environmental impact. Vulnerability assessment is a widely used tool for groundwater protection and land-use management. Aquifers in Qatar are carbonate with lots of fractures, depressions and cavities. Karst aquifers are generally more vulnerable to contamination than other aquifers as any anthropogenic-sourced contaminant, especially above a highly fractured zone, can infiltrate quickly into the aquifer and spread over a wide area. The vulnerability assessment method presented in this study is based on two approaches: DRASTIC and EPIK, within the framework of Geographical Information System (GIS). Results of this study show that DRASTIC vulnerability method suits Qatar hydrogeological settings more than EPIK. The produced vulnerability map using DRASTIC shows coastal and karst areas have the highest vulnerability class. The southern part of the country is located in the low vulnerability class due to occurrence of shale formation within aquifer media, which averts downward movement of contaminants.

DEMONSTRATING APPLICATIONS OF REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

This task is designed to respond to 2 Congressional earmarks of $1,000,000 to the Canaan Valley Institute (CVI) to work in close coordination with the Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) initiative to develop research and educational tools using integrative technologies to p...

Vulnerability of Oregon Hydrologic Landscapes and Streamflow to Climate Change - 5/20/2014

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrologic classification systems can provide a basis for broadscale assessments of the hydrologic functions of landscapes and watersheds and their responses to stressors. Such assessments could be particularly useful in determining hydrologic vulnerability from climate change. A...

78 FR 51740 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-21

... information collection, Registry of Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments. SUMMARY: We (the U.S. Geological... of Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments'' in the subject line. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Laura Thompson, National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, 12201...

PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF GROUNDWATER VULNERABILITY TO NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION IN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS

EPA Science Inventory

This paper presents a probabilistic framework for the assessment of groundwater pollution potential by pesticides in two adjacent agricultural watersheds in the Mid-Altantic Coastal Plain. Indices for estimating streams vulnerability to pollutants' load from the surficial aquifer...

Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G.; Johnson, Richard K.

2014-01-01

Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

Integrated intravascular ultrasound and optical coherence tomography technology: a promising tool to identify vulnerable plaques [INVITED PAPER

PubMed Central

Li, Jiawen; Chen, Zhongping

2017-01-01

Heart attack is mainly caused by the rupture of a vulnerable plaque. IVUS-OCT is a novel medical imaging modality that provides opportunities for accurate assessment of vulnerable plaques in vivo in patients. IVUS provides deep penetration to image the whole necrotic core while OCT enables accurate measurement of the fibrous cap of a plaque owing to its high resolution. In this paper, the authors describe the fundamentals, the technical designs and the applications of IVUS-OCT technology. Results from cadaver specimens are summarized, which indicated the complementary nature of OCT and IVUS for assessment of vulnerable plaques, plaque composition, and stent-tissue interactions. Furthermore, previously reported in vivo animal experiments are reviewed to assess the clinical adaptability of IVUS-OCT. Future directions for this technology are also discussed in this review. PMID:28966987

Assessing local population vulnerability to wind energy development with branching process models: an application to wind energy development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erickson, Richard A.; Eager, Eric A.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Beston, Julie A.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

2015-01-01

Quantifying the impact of anthropogenic development on local populations is important for conservation biology and wildlife management. However, these local populations are often subject to demographic stochasticity because of their small population size. Traditional modeling efforts such as population projection matrices do not consider this source of variation whereas individual-based models, which include demographic stochasticity, are computationally intense and lack analytical tractability. One compromise between approaches is branching process models because they accommodate demographic stochasticity and are easily calculated. These models are known within some sub-fields of probability and mathematical ecology but are not often applied in conservation biology and applied ecology. We applied branching process models to quantitatively compare and prioritize species locally vulnerable to the development of wind energy facilities. Specifically, we examined species vulnerability using branching process models for four representative species: A cave bat (a long-lived, low fecundity species), a tree bat (short-lived, moderate fecundity species), a grassland songbird (a short-lived, high fecundity species), and an eagle (a long-lived, slow maturation species). Wind turbine-induced mortality has been observed for all of these species types, raising conservation concerns. We simulated different mortality rates from wind farms while calculating local extinction probabilities. The longer-lived species types (e.g., cave bats and eagles) had much more pronounced transitions from low extinction risk to high extinction risk than short-lived species types (e.g., tree bats and grassland songbirds). High-offspring-producing species types had a much greater variability in baseline risk of extinction than the lower-offspring-producing species types. Long-lived species types may appear stable until a critical level of incidental mortality occurs. After this threshold, the risk of extirpation for a local population may rapidly increase with only minimal increases in wind mortality. Conservation biologists and wildlife managers may need to consider this mortality pattern when issuing take permits and developing monitoring protocols for wind facilities. We also describe how our branching process models may be generalized across a wider range of species for a larger assessment project and then describe how our methods may be applied to other stressors in addition to wind.

Using landscape typologies to model socioecological systems: Application to agriculture of the United States Gulf Coast

DOE PAGES

Preston, Benjamin L.; King, Anthony Wayne; Mei, Rui; ...

2016-02-11

Agricultural enterprises are vulnerable to the effects of climate variability and change. Improved understanding of the determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in agricultural systems is important for projecting and managing future climate risk. At present, three analytical tools dominate methodological approaches to understanding agroecological vulnerability to climate: process-based crop models, empirical crop models, and integrated assessment models. A common weakness of these approaches is their limited treatment of socio-economic conditions and human agency in modeling agroecological processes and outcomes. This study proposes a framework that uses spatial cluster analysis to generate regional socioecological typologies that capture geographic variance inmore » regional agricultural production and enable attribution of that variance to climatic, topographic, edaphic, and socioeconomic components. This framework was applied to historical corn production (1986-2010) in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico region as a testbed. The results demonstrate that regional socioeconomic heterogeneity is an important driving force in human dominated ecosystems, which we hypothesize, is a function of the link between socioeconomic conditions and the adaptive capacity of agricultural systems. Meaningful representation of future agricultural responses to climate variability and change is contingent upon understanding interactions among biophysical conditions, socioeconomic conditions, and human agency their incorporation in predictive models.« less

Using landscape typologies to model socioecological systems: Application to agriculture of the United States Gulf Coast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Preston, Benjamin L.; King, Anthony Wayne; Mei, Rui

Agricultural enterprises are vulnerable to the effects of climate variability and change. Improved understanding of the determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in agricultural systems is important for projecting and managing future climate risk. At present, three analytical tools dominate methodological approaches to understanding agroecological vulnerability to climate: process-based crop models, empirical crop models, and integrated assessment models. A common weakness of these approaches is their limited treatment of socio-economic conditions and human agency in modeling agroecological processes and outcomes. This study proposes a framework that uses spatial cluster analysis to generate regional socioecological typologies that capture geographic variance inmore » regional agricultural production and enable attribution of that variance to climatic, topographic, edaphic, and socioeconomic components. This framework was applied to historical corn production (1986-2010) in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico region as a testbed. The results demonstrate that regional socioeconomic heterogeneity is an important driving force in human dominated ecosystems, which we hypothesize, is a function of the link between socioeconomic conditions and the adaptive capacity of agricultural systems. Meaningful representation of future agricultural responses to climate variability and change is contingent upon understanding interactions among biophysical conditions, socioeconomic conditions, and human agency their incorporation in predictive models.« less

Report: Results of Technical Network Vulnerability Assessment: EPA’s Andrew W. Breidenbach Environmental Research Center

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #10-P-0210, September 7, 2010. Vulnerability testing of EPA’s Andrew W. Breidenbach Environmental Research Center network conducted in June 2010 identified Internet Protocol addresses with numerous high-risk and medium-risk vulnerabilities.

GIS-based vulnerability assessment to sea level rise of Al Hoceima Bay (Moroccan Mediterranean): towards an integrated coastal zone management (ICZM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khouakhi, A.; Snoussi, M.

2013-12-01

In the context of coastal vulnerability to climate change and human impacts, integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) is an increasingly relevant process for the sustainable development of coastal areas, in which scientific input plays a vital role. In the Mediterranean Basin, projected increases in sea level rise and in the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events pose a major challenge for the management of low-lying coastal ecosystems and human settlements. The bay of Al Hoceima is one of the least studied and largest low-lying coastal areas of the Moroccan Mediterranean coast, and is exposed to the effects of sea level rise and storms. The coast is also a touristic area and one of the most important economic assets in the region. Physical coastal vulnerability assessments, determination of setback lines, and evaluation of coastal aquifer vulnerability to sea level rise are among the principal tools used to help decision makers in such a context. Here we quantified, in the context of sea level rise: (1) the physical vulnerability of the coastline, by developing a standard index methodology based on the five most relevant physical indices for local-scale vulnerability analysis, for a total of 822 50m/50m coastal cells; (2) coastal setback lines, based on shoreline evolutionary trends adjusted to sea level rise scenarios using a digital shoreline Analysis System (DSAS); and (3) the vulnerability to sea water intrusion in the coastal aquifer, using a modified GALDIT index (ground water occurrence, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, depth to groundwater level above the sea; distance from the shore; impact of existing status of sea water intrusion in the area; and thickness of the aquifer), following an integrated GIS approach. We find that 41% of the studied coastline is highly vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise and extreme weather events; 60% of the coastline is in retreat (with rates varying between -2m and -0.2m/y), 30% is in dynamic equilibrium (rates of -0.2 to +0.2m/y), and 10% is gradually prograding (with accretion rates of +0.2 to +0.8m/y). Setback line analysis indicates a potential retreat of the coastline of up to -90m by 2050 in the most vulnerable sectors. We find that the aquifer is subject to a moderate to high risk for at least half of its total area, and that for an assumed sea level rise of 0.5 m, the vulnerable surface area will increase by up to two times. The assessment of coastal erosion under different scenarios of sea level rise showed that, if no action is taken, most of the beaches are likely to disappear from the coupled effects of erosion and inundation. These findings will have direct repercussions for coastal development programs over both the short and long terms. The final results aim to provide coastal managers with tools to help the implementation of ICZM.

Physical, Ecological, and Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert; Baptista, Sandra R.; Quattrochi, Dale; O'Brien, Sheila

2011-01-01

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. The current NCA (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/) differs in multiple ways from previous U.S. climate assessment efforts, being: (1) more focused on supporting the Nation s activities in adaptation and mitigation and on evaluating the current state of scientific knowledge relative to climate impacts and trends; (2) a long-term, consistent process for evaluation of climate risks and opportunities and providing information to support decision-making processes within regions and sectors; and (3) establishing a permanent assessment capacity both inside and outside of the federal government. As a part of ongoing, long-term assessment activities, the NCA intends to develop an integrated strategic framework and deploy climate-relevant physical, ecological, and societal indicators. The NCA indicators framework is underdevelopment by the NCA Development and Advisory Committee Indicators Working Group and are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The potential questions that could be addressed by these indicators include: How do we know that there is a changing climate and how is it expected to change in the future? Are important climate impacts and opportunities occurring or predicted to occur in the future? Are we adapting successfully? What are the vulnerabilities and resiliencies given a changing climate? Are we preparing adequately for extreme events? It is not expected that the NCA societal indicators would be linked directly to a single decision or portfolio of decisions, but subsets of indicators, or the data supporting the indicator, might be used to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region.

Physical, Ecological, and Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Brien, S.; Kenney, M.; Chen, R. S.; Baptista, S. R.; Quattrochi, D. A.

2011-12-01

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. The current NCA (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/) differs in multiple ways from previous U.S. climate assessment efforts, being: (1) more focused on supporting the Nation's activities in adaptation and mitigation and on evaluating the current state of scientific knowledge relative to climate impacts and trends; (2) a long-term, consistent process for evaluation of climate risks and opportunities and providing information to support decision-making processes within regions and sectors; and (3) establishing a permanent assessment capacity both inside and outside of the federal government. As a part of ongoing, long-term assessment activities, the NCA intends to develop an integrated strategic framework and deploy climate-relevant physical, ecological, and societal indicators. The NCA indicators framework is underdevelopment by the NCA Development and Advisory Committee Indicators Working Group and are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The potential questions that could be addressed by these indicators include: -How do we know that there is a changing climate and how is it expected to change in the future? -Are important climate impacts and opportunities occurring or predicted to occur in the future? -Are we adapting successfully? -What are the vulnerabilities and resiliencies given a changing climate? -Are we preparing adequately for extreme events? It is not expected that the NCA indicators would be linked directly to a single decision or portfolio of decisions, but subsets of indicators, or the data supporting the indicator, might be used to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region.

Conducting an Efficient Proactive Risk Assessment Prior to CPOE Implementation in an Intensive Care Unit

PubMed Central

Hundt, Ann Schoofs; Adams, Jean A.; Schmid, J. Andrew; Musser, Linda M.; Walker, James M.; Wetterneck, Tosha B; Douglas, Stephen V.; Paris, Bonnie L.; Carayon, Pascale

2012-01-01

Purpose To develop, conduct, and evaluate a proactive risk assessment (PRA) of the design and implementation of CPOE in an ICU. Methods We developed a PRA method based on issues identified from documented experience with conventional PRA methods and the constraints of an organization about to implement CPOE in an intensive care unit. The PRA method consists of three phases: planning (three months), team (one five-hour meeting), and evaluation (short- and long-term). Results Sixteen unique relevant vulnerabilities were identified as a result of the PRA team’s efforts. Negative consequences resulting from the vulnerabilities included potential patient safety and quality of care issues, non-compliance with regulatory requirements, increases in cognitive burden on CPOE users, and/or worker inconvenience or distress. Actions taken to address the vulnerabilities included redesign of the technology, process (workflow) redesign, user training, and/or ongoing monitoring. Verbal and written evaluation by the team members indicated that the PRA method was useful and that participants were willing to participate in future PRAs. Long-term evaluation was accomplished by monitoring an ongoing “issues list” of CPOE problems identified by or reported to IT staff. Vulnerabilities identified by the team were either resolved prior to CPOE implementation (n = 7) or shortly thereafter (n = 9). No other issues were identified beside those identified by the team. Conclusions Generally positive results from the various evaluations including a long-term evaluation demonstrate the value of developing an efficient PRA method that meets organizational and contextual requirements and constraints. PMID:22608242

Vulnerability-specific stress generation: Childhood emotional abuse and the mediating role of depressogenic interpersonal processes.

PubMed

Hernandez, Evelyn M; Trout, Zoë M; Liu, Richard T

2016-12-01

Stress generation in depression (i.e. the tendency for depression-prone individuals to experience more life stress that is in part influenced by the individual) has been well established. However, more research is necessary to clarify the role of specific types of life stress in this effect. The current study extends the stress generation hypothesis by examining whether the type of stress involved is contingent upon the nature of the individual's particular vulnerability. Childhood emotional abuse and interpersonal vulnerability factors were predicted to be associated with prospective interpersonal dependent but not non-interpersonal or independent stress. These interpersonal factors were examined as mediators of the association between childhood emotional abuse and interpersonal stress generation. Data were collected from 185 undergraduate participants at two time-points, four months apart. At baseline, participants completed assessments of depressive symptoms, childhood abuse history, interpersonal risk factors (rejection sensitivity, excessive reassurance-seeking, and negative feedback-seeking), and a diagnostic interview for depression. At the follow-up assessment, participants completed a life stress interview. Childhood emotional abuse prospectively predicted greater interpersonal dependent stress, but not non-interpersonal dependent or independent stress. Only rejection sensitivity mediated this relationship. Consistent with the stress generation hypothesis, neither childhood emotional abuse nor the three interpersonal risk factors predicted independent stress. These findings suggest that targeting interpersonal vulnerabilities in clinical settings, particularly rejection sensitivity, among individuals with a history of childhood emotional abuse, may help to reduce the occurrence of interpersonal dependent stress, thus possibly decreasing risk for depression. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Socialization Processes and Clergy Offenders.

PubMed

Anderson, Jane

2016-01-01

This article uses feminist theory to investigate how the socialization processes used to maintain the clergy community in the Roman Catholic Church contributes to a vulnerability in some clergy for sexually abusing children. This vulnerability is identified first in an examination of the literature on the impact of socialization processes on clergy offenders between the 1960s and 1980s. A comparison is then made with the implications of the apostolic exhortation, Pastores Dabo Vobis, which provides a theological basis to clergy formation. The article argues that the document works to ensure a continuity of socialization processes that not only have been shown to create a vulnerability for committing child sexual abuse but compound existing vulnerabilities. The article concludes that constraints produced by the preservation of a hegemonic masculinity and patriarchy retain a threat of violence against children and require recommended reforms.

Contracting Processes, Internal Controls, and Procurement Fraud: A Knowledge Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-30

ååì~ä=^Åèìáëáíáçå= oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=póãéçëáìã= qÜìêëÇ~ó=pÉëëáçåë= sçäìãÉ=ff= = Contracting Processes, Internal Controls, and Procurement Fraud: A Knowledge...DATES COVERED 00-00-2015 to 00-00-2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Contracting Processes, Internal Controls, and Procurement Fraud: A Knowledge...capable processes, and effective internal controls result in the DoD having a higher level of vulnerability for procurement fraud (Rendon & Rendon, in

Application and Validation of Concept Maturity Assessment Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-01

process. The following chapter will discuss a proposed methodology for validation of the concept maturity framwork and its Concept Evaluation and...of each contractor‟s conceptual solution and any gaps in information that may have been overlooked. The organization also commented that the... conceptual and does not have a specific system tied to it is often vulnerable to losing interest and potentially funding from decision makers. However

Agencies Should Assess Vulnerabilities and Improve Guidance for Protecting Export-Controlled Information at Companies

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-01

Supplement DOD Department of Defense DOL Department of Labor DTSA Defense Technology Security Administration EAR Export Administration Regulations...and outreach to companies on the export regulations. DOD: The Defense Technology Security Administration ( DTSA ) represents DOD on export control...and technologies, which DOD oversees. DTSA serves an advisory role in State’s and Commerce’s export license review processes and offers technical

Law tightened to protect adults who lack capacity.

PubMed

2009-05-21

VULNERABLE OLDER people will be better protected from abuse and poor care after new legislation came into force last month. Under the Mental Capacity Act Deprivation of Liberty Safeguards, a care home or hospital wanting to deprive a person who lacks capacity of their liberty, for their own safety or wellbeing, must now apply for permission. A rigorous, standardised assessment and authorisation process must then be completed.

Hydrologic landscape classification evaluates streamflow vulnerability to climate change in Oregon, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Classification can allow assessments of the hydrologic functions of landscapes and their responses to stressors. Here we demonstrate the use of a hydrologic landscape (HL) approach to assess vulnerability to potential future climate change at statewide and basin scales. The HL ...

Biology: Survival of the finfish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sunday, Jennifer

2017-10-01

A trait-based approach for assessing physiological sensitivity to climate change can connect a species' evolutionary past with its future vulnerability. Now a global assessment of freshwater and marine fishes reveals patterns of warming sensitivity, highlighting the importance of different biogeographies and identifying places where vulnerability runs high.

EPA'S REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT PROGRAM (REVA) DEMONSTRATING RESULTS THROUGH PARTNERSHIPS

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program, a regional-scale comparative risk research effort, has been under development since 1998 with a pilot study focused on the Mid- Atlantic region. ReVA is part of the interagency Integrated Science for Ecosystem Challenges ini...

INTEGRATING INDICATORS OF ECOLOGICAL CONDITION, STRESSOR EXPOSURE, AND QUALITY OF LIFE TOWARDS AN ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL VULNERABILITY

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (REVA) Program is developing and evaluating approaches to integrate information on environmental condition, estimated stressor exposures, and quality of life indicators so that regional risks can be prioritized...

Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality, and Global Change: Challenges of Conducting Multi-Stressor Vulnerability Assessments (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Aquatic Ecosystems and Global Change: The Challenges of conducting Multi-Stressor Global Change Vulnerability Assessments. This report investigates the issues and challenges associated with identifying, calculating, and ...

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Idaho National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Christopher P. Ischay; Ernest L. Fossum; Polly C. Buotte

2014-10-01

The University of Idaho (UI) was asked to participate in the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment for Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This report describes the outcome of that assessment. The climate change happening now, due in large part to human activities, is expected to continue in the future. UI and INL used a common framework for assessing vulnerability that considers exposure (future climate change), sensitivity (system or component responses to climate), impact (exposure combined with sensitivity), and adaptive capacity (capability of INL to modify operations to minimize climate change impacts) to assess vulnerability. Analyses of climate change (exposure)more » revealed that warming that is ongoing at INL will continue in the coming decades, with increased warming in later decades and under scenarios of greater greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of precipitation are more uncertain, with multi model means exhibiting somewhat wetter conditions and more wet days per year. Additional impacts relevant to INL include estimates of more burned area and increased evaporation and transpiration, leading to reduced soil moisture and plant growth.« less

Indicator-based model to assess vulnerability to landslides in urban areas. Case study of Husi city (Eastern Romania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grozavu, Adrian; Ciprian Margarint, Mihai; Catalin Stanga, Iulian

2013-04-01

In the last three or four decades, vulnerability evolved from physical fragility meanings to a more complex concept, being a key element of risk assessment. In landslide risk assessment, there are a large series of studies regarding landslide hazard, but far fewer researches focusing on vulnerability measurement. Furthermore, there is still no unitary understanding on the methodological framework, neither any internationally agreed standard for landslide vulnerability measurements. The omnipresent common element is the existence of elements at risk, but while some approaches are limited to exposure, other focus on the degree of losses (human injuries, material damages and monetary losses, structural dysfunctions etc.). These losses are differently assessed using both absolute and relative values on qualitative or quantitative scales and they are differently integrated to provide a final vulnerability value. This study aims to assess vulnerability to landslides at local level using an indicator-based model applied to urban areas and tested for Husi town (Eastern Romania). The study region is characterized by permeable and impermeable alternating sedimentary rocks, monoclinal geological structure and hilly relief with impressive cuestas, continental temperate climate, and precipitation of about 500 mm/year, rising to 700 m and even more in some rainy years. The town is a middle size one (25000 inhabitants) and it had an ascending evolution in the last centuries, followed by an increasing human pressure on lands. Methodologically, the first step was to assess the landslide susceptibility and to identify in this way those regions within which any asset would be exposed to landslide hazards. Landslide susceptibility was assessed using the logistic regression approach, taking into account several quantitative and qualitative factors (elements of geology, morphometry, rainfall, land use etc.). The spatial background consisted in the Digital Elevation Model and all derived maps (slope, aspect, shading), realized based on the topographical plans and maps (1:1000, 1:5000). The second step was to realize the spatial inventory of elements at risk (vector format), based on the General Urban Plan (1:5000), the orthorectified aerial images (2009, resolution: 0.5 meters) and field investigations. All elements have been classified using attribute databases: residential buildings (single or multiple dwellings), other buildings according to their functionality, main and secondary roads, special transport network etc. Data about population have been added in order to assess the intrinsic value of each element and the number of potentially affected peoples. The study also took into account issues as preparedness and preventive measures (risk prevention plans, reinforcing structures, draining wells etc.), coping ability (network geometry and connectivity, emergency services accessibility) and recovering capacity (e.g. the existence of insurance policies). According to their importance and functionality, a distinct rank (ri … rn) was assigned to each element at risk (i1…in) showing the level of vulnerability. The rank values were assigned mainly on the expert knowledge and they range from 1 (limited damages, no affected people) to 5 (several households and people affected, dysfunctions in the urban system). The vulnerability index (Vi) was obtained combining the rank with the role of vulnerability factors (Fi), according to their degree of influence: the number of people that would be affected, the potential material and economic damages, the relationship with the neighboring exposed elements, the existence of the preventing, coping and recovering measures etc. Thus, the general equation of vulnerability has the form of weighted geometric mean: Vi=ri•Fi = ri•(w1F1 • w2F2 • … • wmFm). It must be noted that the weighting coefficients (wi) have subunitary or supraunitary value according to their role in diminishing or increasing the vulnerability level. The general vulnerability index (GVI) was obtained through a final transformation that was done to limit the spread of variation between zero (minimum vulnerability) and one (maximum vulnerability): GVIi = Vi/Vmax. In this form, the elements at risk are individually inventoried and spatialized in vector format as points, lines, polygons, each one having its own vulnerability value, but the results can be used only at the precise local level (both by practitioners and decision makers). To allow a more profound interpretation, the general vulnerability index was spatialized in two distinct ways: (1) creating a raster with a standard pixel size (e.g. 20 x 20 m, 50 x 50 m) and calculating the average vulnerability of the exposed elements in each pixel; (2) choosing a interpolation method (e.g. krigging) that would allow to integrate the spatial autocorrelation of the elements at risk and to obtain an output raster at the same resolution with the susceptibility map and a further risk assessment.

Community perspectives on research consent involving vulnerable children in Western Kenya.

PubMed

Vreeman, Rachel; Kamaara, Eunice; Kamanda, Allan; Ayuku, David; Nyandiko, Winstone; Atwoli, Lukoye; Ayaya, Samuel; Gisore, Peter; Scanlon, Michael; Braitstein, Paula

2012-10-01

Involving vulnerable pediatric populations in international research requires culturally appropriate ethical protections. We sought to use mabaraza, traditional East African community assemblies, to understand how a community in western Kenya viewed participation of children in health research and informed consent and assent processes. Results from 108 participants revealed generally positive attitudes towards involving vulnerable children in research, largely because they assumed children would directly benefit. Consent from parents or guardians was understood as necessary for participation while gaining child assent was not. They felt other caregivers, community leaders, and even community assemblies could participate in the consent process. Community members believed research involving orphans and street children could benefit these vulnerable populations, but would require special processes for consent.

Community Perspectives on Research Consent Involving Vulnerable Children in Western Kenya

PubMed Central

Vreeman, Rachel; Kamaara, Eunice; Kamanda, Allan; Ayuku, David; Nyandiko, Winstone; Atwoli, Lukoye; Ayaya, Samuel; Gisore, Peter; Scanlon, Michael; Braitstein, Paula

2013-01-01

Involving vulnerable pediatric populations in international research requires culturally appropriate ethical protections. We sought to use mabaraza, traditional East African community assemblies, to understand how a community in western Kenya viewed participation of children in health research and informed consent and assent processes. Results from 108 participants revealed generally positive attitudes towards involving vulnerable children in research, largely because they assumed children would directly benefit. Consent from parents or guardians was understood as necessary for participation while gaining child assent was not. They felt other caregivers, community leaders, and even community assemblies could participate in the consent process. Community members believed research involving orphans and street children could benefit these vulnerable populations, but would require special processes for consent. PMID:23086047

Industrial Control Systems/SCADA systems risk assessment in the energy sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falodun, Babatunde

The energy sector is one of the most critical components of our national infrastructure. It not only provides the electrical power and petroleum required to run day-to-day operations and mechanisms in society, it's also an important element that directly impacts the economy with regard to growth and stability. Industrial Control Systems (ICS) /Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition Systems (SCADA) are computerized mechanisms, they are both software and hardware that are used to control real time processes and operations in power plants and oil production facilities. A significant attack on these control systems that leads to widespread disruption of energy could result in catastrophic consequences for any major city and even the nation. This research paper explores cyber threats and vulnerabilities faced by ICS/SCADA systems in the energy sector and also highlights possible outcomes of a successful breach. Furthermore, the research underscores mitigation strategies that could be used to prevent and respond to an attack. Keywords: Cybersecurity, SCADA, Cyber Attacks, Threats, Vulnerabilities, Risk Assessment, Dr. Albert Orbinati.

Topological Vulnerability Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jajodia, Sushil; Noel, Steven

Traditionally, network administrators rely on labor-intensive processes for tracking network configurations and vulnerabilities. This requires a great deal of expertise, and is error prone because of the complexity of networks and associated security data. The interdependencies of network vulnerabilities make traditional point-wise vulnerability analysis inadequate. We describe a Topological Vulnerability Analysis (TVA) approach that analyzes vulnerability dependencies and shows all possible attack paths into a network. From models of the network vulnerabilities and potential attacker exploits, we compute attack graphs that convey the impact of individual and combined vulnerabilities on overall security. TVA finds potential paths of vulnerability through a network, showing exactly how attackers may penetrate a network. From this, we identify key vulnerabilities and provide strategies for protection of critical network assets.

An Empirical Measure of Computer Security Strength for Vulnerability Remediation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Villegas, Rafael

2010-01-01

Remediating all vulnerabilities on computer systems in a timely and cost effective manner is difficult given that the window of time between the announcement of a new vulnerability and an automated attack has decreased. Hence, organizations need to prioritize the vulnerability remediation process on their computer systems. The goal of this…

Role of the single assessment process in the care of older people. How will primary dental care practitioners be involved?

PubMed

Lane, Elizabeth A; Gallagher, Jennifer E

2006-10-01

Following the publication of the National Service Framework for Older People, there have been developments across health and social care to facilitate holistic assessment of older people's needs, through what is called a 'single assessment process' or 'SAP'. In this paper, readers are introduced to the SAP. The process can be seen as a 'one-stop' approach to the assessment of vulnerable older people that facilitates cross-referral between the agencies involved and triggers access to dental care. The paper explores the benefits of this new way of working in support of older people and how it will provide an opportunity for innovative dental practitioners to integrate oral healthcare for people with complex health and social care needs into the SAP. In concludes that as local commissioning evolves, opportunities for practitioners to develop targeted services for this important patient group should be expanded to improve the uptake of healthcare and oral healthcare.

Relative vulnerability of public supply wells to VOC contamination in hydrologically distinct regional aquifers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kauffman, L.J.; Chapelle, F.H.

2010-01-01

A process-based methodology was used to compare the vulnerability of public supply wells tapping seven study areas in four hydrologically distinct regional aquifers to volatile organic compound (VOC) contamination. This method considers (1) contributing areas and travel times of groundwater flowpaths converging at individual supply wells, (2) the oxic and/or anoxic conditions encountered along each flowpath, and (3) the combined effects of hydrodynamic dispersion and contaminant- and oxic/anoxic-specific biodegradation. Contributing areas and travel times were assessed using particle tracks generated from calibrated regional groundwater flow models. These results were then used to estimate VOC concentrations relative to an unspecified initial concentration (C/C0) at individual public supply wells. The results show that the vulnerability of public supply wells to VOC contamination varies widely between different regional aquifers. Low-recharge rates, long travel times, and the predominantly oxic conditions characteristic of Basin and Range aquifers in the western United States leads to lower vulnerability to VOCs, particularly to petroleum hydrocarbons such as benzene and toluene. On the other hand, high recharge rates and short residence times characteristic of the glacial aquifers of the eastern United States leads to greater vulnerability to VOCs. These differences lead to distinct patterns of C/C0 values estimated for public supply wells characteristic of each aquifer, information that can be used by resource managers to develop monitoring plans based on relative vulnerability, to locate new public supply wells, or to make land-use management decisions. Journal compilation ?? 2010 National Ground Water Association. No claim to original US government works.

Defining Resilience and Vulnerability Based on Ontology Engineering Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumazawa, T.; Matsui, T.; Endo, A.

2014-12-01

It is necessary to reflect the concepts of resilience and vulnerability into the assessment framework of "Human-Environmental Security", but it is also in difficulty to identify the linkage between both concepts because of the difference of the academic community which has discussed each concept. The authors have been developing the ontology which deals with the sustainability of the social-ecological systems (SESs). Resilience and vulnerability are also the concepts in the target world which this ontology covers. Based on this point, this paper aims at explicating the semantic relationship between the concepts of resilience and vulnerability based on ontology engineering approach. For this purpose, we first examine the definitions of resilience and vulnerability which the existing literatures proposed. Second, we incorporate the definitions in the ontology dealing with sustainability of SESs. Finally, we focus on the "Water-Energy-Food Nexus Index" to assess Human-Environmental Security, and clarify how the concepts of resilience and vulnerability are linked semantically through the concepts included in these index items.

Bringing indices of species vulnerability to climate change into geographic space: an assessment across the Coronado national forest

Treesearch

Jennifer E. Davison; Sharon Coe; Deborah Finch; Erika Rowland; Megan Friggens; Lisa J. Graumlich

2012-01-01

Indices that rate the vulnerability of species to climate change in a given area are increasingly used to inform conservation and climate change adaptation strategies. These species vulnerability indices (SVI) are not commonly associated with landscape features that may affect local-scale vulnerability. To do so would increase their utility by allowing managers to...

A probabilistic framework for assessing vulnerability to climate variability and change: The case of the US water supply system

Treesearch

Romano Foti; Jorge A. Ramirez; Thomas C. Brown

2014-01-01

We introduce a probabilistic framework for vulnerability analysis and use it to quantify current and future vulnerability of the US water supply system. We also determine the contributions of hydro-climatic and socio-economic drivers to the changes in projected vulnerability. For all scenarios and global climatemodels examined, the US Southwest including California and...

Assessing vulnerability to drought: identifying underlying factors across Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urquijo, Julia; Gonzalez Tánago, Itziar; Ballesteros, Mario; De Stefano, Lucia

2015-04-01

Drought is considered one of the most severe and damaging natural hazards in terms of people and sectors affected and associated losses. Drought is a normal and recurrent climatic phenomenon that occurs worldwide, although its spatial and temporal characteristics vary significantly among climates. In the case of Europe, in the last thirty years, the region has suffered several drought events that have caused estimated economic damages over a €100 billion and have affected almost 20% of its territory and population. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness among experts and authorities of the need to shift from a reactive crisis approach to a drought risk management approach, as well as of the importance of designing and implementing policies, strategies and plans at country and river basin levels to deal with drought. The identification of whom and what is vulnerable to drought is a central aspect of drought risk mitigation and planning and several authors agree that societal vulnerability often determines drought risk more than the actual precipitation shortfalls. The final aim of a drought vulnerability assessment is to identify the underlying sources of drought impact, in order to develop policy options that help to enhance coping capacity and therefore to prevent drought impact. This study identifies and maps factors underlying vulnerability to drought across Europe. The identification of factors influencing vulnerability starts from the analysis of past drought impacts in four European socioeconomic sectors. This analysis, along with an extensive literature review, led to the selection of vulnerability factors that are both relevant and adequate for the European context. Adopting the IPCC model, vulnerability factors were grouped to describe exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The aggregation of these components has resulted in the mapping of vulnerability to drought across Europe at NUTS02 level. Final results have been compared with data from the European Drought Impact Report Inventory. For specific hotpots vulnerability factors are presented also through spider diagrams in order to allow policy and decision makers to identify underlying sources of vulnerability in the European context. This assessment offers an overall picture at a European level that strives to contribute to enhance the understanding of drought vulnerability across Europe.

Grid Transmission Expansion Planning Model Based on Grid Vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Quan; Wang, Xi; Li, Ting; Zhang, Quanming; Zhang, Hongli; Li, Huaqiang

2018-03-01

Based on grid vulnerability and uniformity theory, proposed global network structure and state vulnerability factor model used to measure different grid models. established a multi-objective power grid planning model which considering the global power network vulnerability, economy and grid security constraint. Using improved chaos crossover and mutation genetic algorithm to optimize the optimal plan. For the problem of multi-objective optimization, dimension is not uniform, the weight is not easy given. Using principal component analysis (PCA) method to comprehensive assessment of the population every generation, make the results more objective and credible assessment. the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model are validated by simulation results of Garver-6 bus system and Garver-18 bus.

Vulnerable populations in an American Red Cross shelter after Hurricane Katrina.

PubMed

Saunders, Judith M

2007-02-01

During Katrina, people suddenly encountered multiple losses, including homes, finances, medications, and death of loved ones. The Model of Vulnerable Populations illustrates how reduced resources placed individuals at greater risk for harm. Using vignettes and the Model of Vulnerable Populations, a psychiatric nurse discusses her experiences as an American Red Cross psychiatric/mental health nurse volunteer after the Katrina disaster at a Mississippi shelter. The role of the mental health nurse volunteer was demonstrated by assessment and interventions of advocacy, referral, crisis intervention, and general support and education. Using the Model of Vulnerable Populations, psychiatric nurses can improve mental health assessment and services by counseling, advocacy, triage, and teaching disease prevention strategies such as hand washing.

Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared this draft report exploring a new methodology for climate change vulnerability assessments using San Francisco Bay’s salt marsh and mudflat ecosystems as a demonstration. N/A

Assessing the vulnerability of human and biological communities to changing ecosystem services using a GIS-based multi-criteria decision support tool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Labiosa, William B.

2012-01-01

In this paper we describe an application of a GIS-based multi-criteria decision support web tool that models and evaluates relative changes in ecosystem services to policy and land management decisions. The Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio (SCWEPM) was designed to provide credible forecasts of responses to ecosystem drivers and stressors and to illustrate the role of land use decisions on spatial and temporal distributions of ecosystem services within a binational (U.S. and Mexico) watershed. We present two SCWEPM sub-models that when analyzed together address bidirectional relationships between social and ecological vulnerability and ecosystem services. The first model employs the Modified Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Index (M-SEVI), which assesses community vulnerability using information from U.S. and Mexico censuses on education, access to resources, migratory status, housing situation, and number of dependents. The second, relating land cover change to biodiversity (provisioning services), models changes in the distribution of terrestrial vertebrate habitat based on multitemporal vegetation and land cover maps, wildlife habitat relationships, and changes in land use/land cover patterns. When assessed concurrently, the models exposed some unexpected relationships between vulnerable communities and ecosystem services provisioning. For instance, the most species-rich habitat type in the watershed, Desert Riparian Forest, increased over time in areas occupied by the most vulnerable populations and declined in areas with less vulnerable populations. This type of information can be used to identify ecological conservation and restoration targets that enhance the livelihoods of people in vulnerable communities and promote biodiversity and ecosystem health.

Groundwater vulnerability assessment using hydrogeologic and geoelectric layer susceptibility indexing at Igbara Oke, Southwestern Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oni, T. E.; Omosuyi, G. O.; Akinlalu, A. A.

2017-12-01

Groundwater vulnerability assessment was carried out at Igbara Oke Southwestern Nigeria, with a view to classify the area into vulnerability zones, by applying the electrical resistivity method, using Schlumberger electrode arrays with maximum electrode separation (AB/2) of 65 m in (41) different locations for data acquisition. Geoelectric parameters (layer resistivity and thickness) were determined from the interpreted data. The study area comprises four geoelectric layers (topsoil, lateritic layer, weathered/fractured layer and fresh basement). The geoelectric parameters of the overlying layers across the area were used to assess the vulnerability of the underlying aquifers to near-surface contaminants with the aid of vulnerability maps generated. Three models were compared by maps using geo-electrically derived models; longitudinal conductance, GOD (groundwater occurrence, overlying lithology and depth to the aquifer) and GLSI (geoelectric layer susceptibility indexing). The total longitudinal conductance map shows the north central part of the study area as a weakly protected (0.1-0.19) area, while the northern and southern parts have poor protective capacity (<0.1); this is in agreement with the GOD method which shows the northern part of the study area as less vulnerable (0-0.1) while the southern part has low/moderate (0.1-0.3) vulnerability to contamination. The longitudinal conductance exaggerates the degree of susceptibility to contamination than the GOD and GLSI models. From the models, vulnerability to contamination can be considered higher at the southern part than the northern part and therefore, sources of contamination like septic tank, refuse dump should be cited far from groundwater development area.

Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, Richard H.; Blohm, Andrew; Delgado, Alison

2016-02-01

U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Departments of Energy and Defense. The paper provides a framework of steps for climate vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. Inmore » a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change.« less

Disturbance Distance: Combining a process based ecosystem model and remote sensing data to map the vulnerability of U.S. forested ecosystems to potentially altered disturbance rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolan, K. A.

2015-12-01

Disturbance plays a critical role in shaping the structure and function of forested ecosystems as well as the ecosystem services they provide, including but not limited to: carbon storage, biodiversity habitat, water quality and flow, and land atmosphere exchanges of energy and water. In addition, recent studies suggest that disturbance rates may increase in the future under altered climate and land use scenarios. Thus understanding how vulnerable forested ecosystems are to potential changes in disturbance rates is of high importance. This study calculated the theoretical threshold rate of disturbance for which forest ecosystems could no longer be sustained (λ*) across the Coterminous U.S. using an advanced process based ecosystem model (ED). Published rates of disturbance (λ) in 50 study sites were obtained from the North American Forest Disturbance (NAFD) program. Disturbance distance (λ* - λ) was calculated for each site by differencing the model based threshold under current climate conditions and average observed rates of disturbance over the last quarter century. Preliminary results confirm all sample forest sites have current average rates of disturbance below λ*, but there were interesting patterns in the recorded disturbance distances. In general western sites had much smaller disturbance distances, suggesting higher vulnerability to change, while eastern sites showed larger buffers. Ongoing work is being conducted to assess the vulnerability of these sites in the context of potential future changes by propagating scenarios of future climate and land-use change through the analysis.

APPLICATION OF THE REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT (REVA) INTEGRATION TOOL AND UNDERLYING METHODS FOR MULTI-SCALE DECISION MAKING

EPA Science Inventory

In support of the National Science and Technology Council's cross-Agency priority of Integrated Science for Ecological Challenges (ISEC) EPA is conducting research to improve capabilities in the area of regional vulnerability assessment and ecological forecasting. EPA's research...

REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: CREATING A CONTEXT FOR EVALUATING STREAM ACIDIFICATION

EPA Science Inventory

USEPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program is designed to identify ecosystems that are likely to vary beyond the range of natural variability and thereby experience reduced ecological integrity as a result of natural and human-induced stressors. ReVA makes use of r...

Evaluating the importance of human-modified lands for neotropical bird conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petit, L.J.; Petit, D.R.

2003-01-01

Development of effective conservation plans for terrestrial animals will require some assessment of which human-modified and natural habitats can support populations of priority species. We examined bird communities associated with 11 natural and human-modified habitats in Panama and assessed the importance of those habitats for species of different vulnerability to disturbance. We calculated habitat importance scores using both relative habitat preferences and vulnerability scores for all species present. Species of moderate and high vulnerability were primarily those categorized as forest specialists or forest generalists. As expected, even species-rich nonforest habitats provided little conservation value for the most vulnerable species. However, shaded coffee plantations and gallery forest corridors were modified habitats with relatively high conservation value. Sugar cane fields and Caribbean pine plantations offered virtually no conservation value for birds. Our method of assessing the conservation importance of different habitats is useful because it considers the types of species present and the potential role of the habitat in the conservation of those species (i.e., habitat preference). This method of habitat evaluation could be tailored to other conservation contexts with any measure of species vulnerability desired.

Measuring disaster-resilient communities: a case study of coastal communities in Indonesia.

PubMed

Kafle, Shesh Kanta

2012-01-01

Vulnerability reduction and resilience building of communities are central concepts in recent policy debates. Although there are fundamental linkages, and complementarities exist between the two concepts, recent policy and programming has focused more on the latter. It is assumed here that reducing underlying causes of vulnerabilities and their interactions with resilience elements is a prerequisite for obtaining resilience capabilities. An integrated approach, incorporating both the vulnerability and resilience considerations, has been taken while developing an index for measuring disaster-resilient communities. This study outlines a method for measuring community resilience capabilities using process and outcome indicators in 43 coastal communities in Indonesia. An index was developed using ten process and 25 outcome indicators, selected on the basis of the ten steps of the Integrated Community Based Risk Reduction (ICBRR) process, and key characteristics of disaster resilient communities were taken from various literatures. The overall index value of all 43 communities was 63, whereas the process and outcome indicator values were measured as 63 and 61.5 respectively. The core components of this index are process and outcome indicators. The tool has been developed with an assumption that both the process and outcome indicators are equally important in building disaster-resilient communities. The combination of both indicators is an impetus to quality change in the community. Process indicators are important for community understanding, ownership and the sustainability of the programme; whereas outcome indicators are important for the real achievements in terms of community empowerment and capacity development. The process of ICBRR approach varies by country and location as per the level of community awareness and organisational strategy. However, core elements such as the formation of community groups, mobilising those groups in risk assessment and planning should be present in all the countries or locations. As this study shows, community resiliency can be measured but any such measurement must be both location- and hazard-specific.

Policy reform to shift the health and human rights environment for vulnerable groups: the case of Kyrgyzstan's Instruction 417.

PubMed

Beletsky, Leo; Thomas, Rachel; Smelyanskaya, Marina; Artamonova, Irina; Shumskaya, Natalya; Dooronbekova, Aijan; Mukambetov, Aibek; Doyle, Heather; Tolson, Rebecca

2012-12-15

Police activities shape behavior and health outcomes among drug users, sex workers, and other vulnerable groups. Interventions to change the policing of drug consumption and sex work in ways that facilitate public health programming and respect for human rights have included policy reforms, education, and litigation. In 2009, the Kyrgyz government promulgated "Instruction 417," prohibiting police interference with "harm reduction" programs, re-enforcing citizen rights, addressing police occupational safety concerns, and institutionalizing police-public health collaboration. Although ample evidence points to gaps between intended and actual impact of policy and other structural interventions, there is little research on the impact of initiatives designed to align policing, health, and human rights. We conducted a police officer survey to assess links between Instruction 417 knowledge and legal and public health knowledge, attitudes towards harm reduction programs, and intended practices targeting vulnerable groups. In a 319-officer sample, 79% understood key due process regulations, 71.1% correctly characterized law on sex work, 54.3% understood syringe possession law, while only 44.4% reported familiarity with Instruction 417. Most (72.9%) expressed positive attitudes toward condom distribution, while only 56% viewed syringe access favorably. Almost half (44%) agreed that police should refer vulnerable groups to disease prevention programs, but only 20% reported doing so. In multivariate analysis, knowledge of Instruction 417 was associated with significantly better knowledge about (aOR=1.84, 95%CI: 1.12-3.00) and attitudes towards harm reduction programs (aOR=3.81, 95%CI:1.35-10.75), and knowledge of due process for the detention of sex workers (aOR=2.53, 95%CI:1.33-4.80). Younger, junior officers and those in rural areas may not be well-informed about the policy. While reflecting positively on Instruction 417 as a structural approach to aligning policing and public health, this analysis highlights gaps in policy dissemination and calls for further research to assess street-level impact of interventions on the health and human rights environment for vulnerable groups. Copyright © 2012 Beletsky et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.