76 FR 45504 - Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-29

... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Forest Service Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee.... Written comments and requests for time for oral comments must be sent to Prince of Wales RAC c/o District...

Geographical trends in infant mortality: England and Wales, 1970-2006.

PubMed

Norman, Paul; Gregory, Ian; Dorling, Danny; Baker, Allan

2008-01-01

At national level in England and Wales, infant mortality rates fell rapidly from the early 1970s and into the 1980s. Subnational areas have also experienced a reduction in levels of infant mortality. While rates continued to fall to 2006, the rate of reduction has slowed. Although the Government Office Regions Yorkshire and The Humber, the North West and the West Midlands and the Office for National Statistics local authority types Cities and Services and London Cosmopolitan have experienced relatively large absolute reductions in infant mortality, their rates remained high compared with the national average. Within all regions and local authority types, a strong relationship was found between ward level deprivation and infant mortality rates. Nevertheless, levels of infant mortality declined over time even in the most deprived areas with a narrowing of absolute differences in rates between areas. Areas in which the level of deprivation eased have experienced greater than average reductions in levels of infant mortality.

The analysis and forecasting of male cycling time trial records established within England and Wales.

PubMed

Dyer, Bryce; Hassani, Hossein; Shadi, Mehran

2016-01-01

The format of cycling time trials in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, involves riders competing individually over several fixed race distances of 10-100 miles in length and using time constrained formats of 12 and 24 h in duration. Drawing on data provided by the national governing body that covers the regions of England and Wales, an analysis of six male competition record progressions was undertaken to illustrate its progression. Future forecasts are then projected through use of the Singular Spectrum Analysis technique. This method has not been applied to sport-based time series data before. All six records have seen a progressive improvement and are non-linear in nature. Five records saw their highest level of record change during the 1950-1969 period. Whilst new record frequency generally has reduced since this period, the magnitude of performance improvement has generally increased. The Singular Spectrum Analysis technique successfully provided forecasted projections in the short to medium term with a high level of fit to the time series data.

The effect of reduced street lighting on road casualties and crime in England and Wales: controlled interrupted time series analysis.

PubMed

Steinbach, Rebecca; Perkins, Chloe; Tompson, Lisa; Johnson, Shane; Armstrong, Ben; Green, Judith; Grundy, Chris; Wilkinson, Paul; Edwards, Phil

2015-11-01

Many local authorities in England and Wales have reduced street lighting at night to save money and reduce carbon emissions. There is no evidence to date on whether these reductions impact on public health. We quantified the effect of 4 street lighting adaptation strategies (switch off, part-night lighting, dimming and white light) on casualties and crime in England and Wales. Observational study based on analysis of geographically coded police data on road traffic collisions and crime in 62 local authorities. Conditional Poisson models were used to analyse longitudinal changes in the counts of night-time collisions occurring on affected roads during 2000-2013, and crime within census Middle Super Output Areas during 2010-2013. Effect estimates were adjusted for regional temporal trends in casualties and crime. There was no evidence that any street lighting adaptation strategy was associated with a change in collisions at night. There was significant statistical heterogeneity in the effects on crime estimated at police force level. Overall, there was no evidence for an association between the aggregate count of crime and switch off (RR 0.11; 95% CI 0.01 to 2.75) or part-night lighting (RR 0.96; 95% CI 0.86 to 1.06). There was weak evidence for a reduction in the aggregate count of crime and dimming (RR 0.84; 95% CI 0.70 to 1.02) and white light (RR 0.89; 95% CI 0.77 to 1.03). This study found little evidence of harmful effects of switch off, part-night lighting, dimming, or changes to white light/LEDs on road collisions or crime in England and Wales. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Instructional Time Trends. Education Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woods, Julie Rowland

2015-01-01

For more than 30 years, Education Commission of the States has tracked instructional time and frequently receives requests for information about policies and trends. In this Education Trends report, Education Commission of the States addresses some of the more frequent questions, including the impact of instructional time on achievement, variation…

Equality through Education. Women in Post-Compulsory Education and Training in Wales. A Summary of Research Prepared for EOC Wales = Cydraddoldeb drwy Addysg. Menywod mewn Addysg a Hyfforddiant wedi'r oed gorfodol yng Nghymru. Crynodeb o ymchwil a baratowyd ar gyfer ccc Cymru.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Equal Opportunities Commission, Cardiff (Wales).

A study examined the position of women in postcompulsory education and training in Wales. Results indicated that many aspects of the position of women in education and training in Wales still compared unfavorably with that of men and the rest of Britain. Two main trends running through the major policy changes in relation to education were the…

New South Wales

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2013-04-16

... city of Sydney was clouded with smoke when more than 80 wildfires raged across the state of New South Wales. These images were captured ... at JPL December 30, 2001 - Smoke from wildfires covers New South Wales. project:  MISR ...

Carcinoma in situ of the breast in New South Wales, Australia: Current status and trends over the last 40 year.

PubMed

Jacklyn, Gemma; Morrell, Stephen; McGeechan, Kevin; Houssami, Nehmat; Irwig, Les; Pathmanathan, Nirmala; Barratt, Alexandra

2018-02-01

The incidence of non-invasive breast cancer has increased substantially over time. We aim to describe temporal trends in the incidence of carcinoma in situ of the breast in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Descriptive study of trends in the incidence of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS) in women who received a diagnosis from 1972 to 2012, recorded in the NSW Cancer Registry. Carcinoma in situ as a proportion of all breast cancer was 0.4% during the prescreening period 1972 to 1987 and is currently 14.1% (2006 to 2012). Among 10,810 women diagnosed with DCIS, incidence across all ages rose from 0.15 per 100,000 during 1972 to 1983 to 16.81 per 100,000 over 2006 to 2012, representing a 100-fold increase (IRR 113.10; 95% CI 81.94 to 156.08). Among women in the target age group for screening (50-69 years) incidence rose from 0.27 per 100,000 to 51.96 over the same period (IRR 195.50; 95% CI 117.26 to 325.89). DCIS incidence peaks in women aged 60-69 years. DCIS incidence has not stabilized despite screening being well established for over 20 years, and participation rates in the target age range remaining stable. Our findings raise questions about the value of the increasing detection of DCIS and aggressive treatment of these lesions, especially among older women, and support trials of de-escalated treatment. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Birth weight trends in England and Wales (1986–2012): babies are getting heavier

PubMed Central

Berild, Jacob Dag; Sterrantino, Anna Freni; Toledano, Mireille B; Hansell, Anna L

2018-01-01

Introduction Birth weight is a strong predictor of infant mortality, morbidity and later disease risk. Previous work from the 1980s indicated a shift in the UK towards heavier births; this descriptive analysis looks at more recent trends. Methods Office for National Statistics (ONS) registration data on 17.2 million live, single births from 1986 to 2012 were investigated for temporal trends in mean birth weight, potential years of birth weight change and changes in the proportions of very low (<1500 g), low (<2500 g) and high (≥4000 g) birth weight. Analysis used multiple linear and logistic regression adjusted for maternal age, marital status, area-level deprivation and ethnicity. Additional analyses used the ONS NHS Numbers for Babies data set for 2006–2012, which has information on individual ethnicity and gestational age. Results Over 27 years there was an increase in birth weight of 43 g (95% CI 42 to 44) in females and 44 g (95% CI 43 to 45) in males, driven by birth weight increases between 1986–1990 and 2007–2012. There was a concurrent decreased risk of having low birth weight but an 8% increased risk in males and 10% increased risk in females of having high birth weight. For 2006–2012 the birth weight increase was greater in preterm as compared with term births. Conclusions Since 1986 the birth weight distribution of live, single births in England and Wales has shifted towards heavier births, partly explained by increases in maternal age and non-white ethnicity, as well as changes in deprivation levels. Other potential influences include increases in maternal obesity and reductions in smoking prevalence particularly following the introduction of legislation restricting smoking in public places in 2007. PMID:28780501

Modelling the contribution of changes in family life to time trends in adolescent conduct problems.

PubMed

Collishaw, Stephan; Goodman, Robert; Pickles, Andrew; Maughan, Barbara

2007-12-01

The past half-century has seen significant changes in family life, including an increase in parental divorce, increases in the numbers of lone parent and stepfamilies, changes in socioeconomic well being, and a decrease in family size. Evidence also shows substantial time trends in adolescent mental health, including a marked increase in conduct problems over the last 25 years of the 20th Century in the UK. The aim of this study was to examine how these two sets of trends may be related. To illustrate the complexity of the issues involved, we focused on three well-established family risks for conduct problems: family type, income and family size. Three community samples of adolescents from England, Scotland and Wales were compared: 10,348 16-year olds assessed in 1974 as part of the National Child Development Study, 7234 16-year olds assessed in 1986 as part of the British Cohort Study, and 860 15-year olds assessed in the 1999 British Child and Adolescent Mental Health Survey. Parents completed comparable ratings of conduct problems in each survey and provided information on family type, income and size. Findings highlight important variations in both the prevalence of these family variables and their associations with conduct problems over time, underscoring the complex conceptual issues involved in testing causes of trends in mental health.

How do trends in mortality inequalities by deprivation and education in Scotland and England & Wales compare? A repeat cross-sectional study.

PubMed

McCartney, Gerry; Popham, Frank; Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal; Walsh, David; Schofield, Lauren

2017-07-21

To compare the trends in mortality inequalities by educational attainment with trends using area deprivation. Scotland and England & Wales (E&W). All people resident in Scotland and E&W between 1981 and 2011 aged 35-79 years. Absolute inequalities (measured using the Slope Index of Inequality (SII)) and relative inequalities (measured using the Relative Index of Inequality (RII)) in all-cause mortality. Relative inequalities in mortality by area deprivation have consistently increased for men and women in Scotland and E&W between 1981-1983 and 2010-2012. Absolute inequalities increased for men and women in Scotland, and for women in E&W, between 1981-1983 and 2000-2002 before subsequently falling. For men in E&W, absolute inequalities were more stable until 2000-2002 before a subsequent decline. Both absolute and relative inequalities were consistently higher in men and in Scotland. These trends contrast markedly with the reported declines in mortality inequalities by educational attainment and apparent improvement of Scotland's inequalities with those in E&W. Trends in health inequalities differ when assessed using different measures of socioeconomic status, reflecting either genuinely variable trends in relation to different aspects of social stratification or varying error or bias. There are particular issues with the educational attainment data in Great Britain prior to 2001 that make these education-based estimates less certain. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Does the cancer drugs fund lead to faster uptake of cost-effective drugs? A time-trend analysis comparing England and Wales.

PubMed

Chamberlain, C; Collin, S M; Stephens, P; Donovan, J; Bahl, A; Hollingworth, W

2014-10-28

The Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) provides £200 million annually in England for 'anti-cancer' drugs. We used a controlled pre-/post-intervention design to compare IMS Health dispensing data for 15 cancer drugs (2007-2012) in England vs Wales, stratified by pre-CDF NICE drug approval status (rejected, mixed recommendations, recommended, not appraised). The CDF was associated with increased prescribing in England for three of five drugs rejected or with mixed NICE recommendations. The prescribing volume ratios (PVR) ranged from 1.29 (95% CI 1.00, 1.67) for sorafenib to 3.28 (2.59, 4.14) for bevacizumab (NICE rejected) and 0.93 (0.81, 1.06) and 1.35 (1.21, 1.49) for sunitinib and imatinib respectively (mixed recommendations). Post CDF prescribing in England increased for both drugs awaiting NICE appraisal pre-CDF (lapatinib PVR=7.44 (5.81, 9.54), panitumumab PVR=5.40 (1.20, 24.42)) and subsequently rejected. The CDF was not associated with increased prescribing in England of NICE-recommended drugs. The three most recently launched, subsequently recommended drugs were adopted faster in Wales (from pazopanib PVR=0.51 (0.28, 0.96) to abiraterone PVR=0.78 (0.61-0.99)). These data indicate that the CDF is used to access drugs deemed not cost-effective by NICE. The CDF did not expedite access to new cost-effective cancer agents prior to NICE approval.

Trends in incidence and survival for anal cancer in New South Wales, Australia, 1972-2009.

PubMed

Soeberg, Matthew J; Rogers, Kris; Currow, David C; Young, Jane M

2015-12-01

Little is known about the incidence and survival of anal cancer in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, as anal cancer cases are often grouped together with other colorectal cancers in descriptive epidemiological analyses. We studied patterns and trends in the incidence and survival of people diagnosed with anal cancer in NSW, Australia, 1972-2009 (n=2724). We also predicted anal cancer incidence in NSW during 2010-2032. Given the human papilloma virus-associated aetiology for most anal cancers, we quantified these changes over time in incidence and survival by histological subtype: anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC); and anal adenocarcinoma (AAC). There was a linear increase in incident anal cancer cases in NSW with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 1.6 (95% CI 1.1-2.0) such that, in combination with age-period-cohort modelling, we predict there will be 198 cases of anal cancer in the 2032 calendar year (95% CI 169-236). Almost all of these anal cancer cases are projected to be ASCC (94%). Survival improved over time regardless of histological subtype. However, five-year relative survival was substantially higher for people with ASCC (70% (95% CI 66-74%)) compared to AAC (51% (95% CI 43-59%)), a 37% difference. Survival was also greater for women (69% (95% CI 64-73%)) with ASCC compared to men (55% (95% CI 50-60%)). It was not possible to estimate survival by stage at diagnosis particularly given that 8% of all cases were recorded as having distant stage and 22% had missing stage data. Aetiological explanations, namely exposure to oncogenic types of human papillomavirus, along with demographic changes most likely explain the actual and projected increase in ASCC case numbers. Survival differences by gender and histological subtype point to areas where further research is warranted to improve treatment and outcomes for all anal cancer patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Climate Change Consortium of Wales (C3W)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendry, K. R.; Reis, J.; Hall, I. R.

2011-12-01

In response to the complexity and multidisciplinary nature of climate change research, the Climate Change Consortium of Wales (C3W) was formed in 2009 by the Welsh universities of Aberystwyth, Bangor, Cardiff and Swansea. Initially funded by Welsh Government, through the Higher Education Funding Council for Wales, the Countryside Council for Wales and the universities, C3W aims to bring together climate change researchers from a wide range of disciplines to explore scientific and sociological drivers, impacts and implications at local, national and international scale. The specific aims are to i) improve our fundamental understanding of the causes, nature, timing and consequences of climate change on Planet Earth's environment and on humanity, and ii) to reconfigure climate research in Wales as a recognisable centre of excellence on the world stage. In addition to improving the infrastructure for climate change research, we aim to improve communication, networking, collaborative research, and multidisciplinary data assimilation within and between the Welsh universities, and other UK and international institutions. Furthermore, C3W aims to apply its research by actively contributing towards national policy development, business development and formal and informal education activities within and beyond Wales.

Incidence and mortality of primary liver cancer in England and Wales: changing patterns and ethnic variations.

PubMed

Ladep, Nimzing G; Khan, Shahid A; Crossey, Mary Me; Thillainayagam, Andrew V; Taylor-Robinson, Simon D; Toledano, Mireille B

2014-02-14

To explore recent trends, modes of diagnosis, ethnic distribution and the mortality to incidence ratio of primary liver cancer by subtypes in England and Wales. We obtained incidence (1979-2008) and mortality (1968-2008) data for primary liver cancer for England and Wales and calculated age-standardised incidence and mortality rates. Trends in age-standardised mortality (ASMR) and incidence (ASIR) rates and basis of diagnosis of primary liver cancer and subcategories: hepatocellular carcinoma, intrahepatic bile duct and unspecified liver tumours, were analysed over the study period. Changes in guidelines for the diagnosis of primary liver cancer (PLC) may impact changing trends in the rates that may be obtained. We thus explored changes in the mode of diagnosis as reported to cancer registries. Furthermore, we examined the distribution of these tumours by ethnicity. Most of the statistical manipulations of these data was carried out in Microsoft excel® (Seattle, Washington, United Sttaes). Additional epidemiological statistics were done in Epi Info software (Atlanta, GA, United Sttaes). To define patterns of change over time, we evaluated trends in ASMR and ASIR of PLC and intrahepatic bile duct carcinoma (IHBD) using a least squares regression line fitted to the natural logarithm of the mortality and incidence rates. We estimated the patterns of survival over subsequent 5 and 10 years using complement of mortality to incidence ratio (1-MIR). Age-standardised mortality rate of primary liver cancer increased in both sexes: from 2.56 and 1.29/100000 in 1968 to 5.10 and 2.63/100000 in 2008 for men and women respectively. The use of histology for diagnostic confirmation of primary liver cancer increased from 35.7% of registered cases in 1993 to plateau at about 50% during 2005 to 2008. Reliance on cytology as a basis of diagnosis has maintained a downward trend throughout the study period. Although approximately 30% of the PLC registrations had information on

Incidence and mortality of primary liver cancer in England and Wales: Changing patterns and ethnic variations

PubMed Central

Ladep, Nimzing G; Khan, Shahid A; Crossey, Mary ME; Thillainayagam, Andrew V; Taylor-Robinson, Simon D; Toledano, Mireille B

2014-01-01

AIM: To explore recent trends, modes of diagnosis, ethnic distribution and the mortality to incidence ratio of primary liver cancer by subtypes in England and Wales. METHODS: We obtained incidence (1979-2008) and mortality (1968-2008) data for primary liver cancer for England and Wales and calculated age-standardised incidence and mortality rates. Trends in age-standardised mortality (ASMR) and incidence (ASIR) rates and basis of diagnosis of primary liver cancer and subcategories: hepatocellular carcinoma, intrahepatic bile duct and unspecified liver tumours, were analysed over the study period. Changes in guidelines for the diagnosis of primary liver cancer (PLC) may impact changing trends in the rates that may be obtained. We thus explored changes in the mode of diagnosis as reported to cancer registries. Furthermore, we examined the distribution of these tumours by ethnicity. Most of the statistical manipulations of these data was carried out in Microsoft excel® (Seattle, Washington, United Sttaes). Additional epidemiological statistics were done in Epi Info software (Atlanta, GA, United Sttaes). To define patterns of change over time, we evaluated trends in ASMR and ASIR of PLC and intrahepatic bile duct carcinoma (IHBD) using a least squares regression line fitted to the natural logarithm of the mortality and incidence rates. We estimated the patterns of survival over subsequent 5 and 10 years using complement of mortality to incidence ratio (1-MIR). RESULTS: Age-standardised mortality rate of primary liver cancer increased in both sexes: from 2.56 and 1.29/100000 in 1968 to 5.10 and 2.63/100000 in 2008 for men and women respectively. The use of histology for diagnostic confirmation of primary liver cancer increased from 35.7% of registered cases in 1993 to plateau at about 50% during 2005 to 2008. Reliance on cytology as a basis of diagnosis has maintained a downward trend throughout the study period. Although approximately 30% of the PLC registrations had

Modeling chloride transport using travel time distributions at Plynlimon, Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benettin, Paolo; Kirchner, James W.; Rinaldo, Andrea; Botter, Gianluca

2015-05-01

Here we present a theoretical interpretation of high-frequency, high-quality tracer time series from the Hafren catchment at Plynlimon in mid-Wales. We make use of the formulation of transport by travel time distributions to model chloride transport originating from atmospheric deposition and compute catchment-scale travel time distributions. The relevance of the approach lies in the explanatory power of the chosen tools, particularly to highlight hydrologic processes otherwise clouded by the integrated nature of the measured outflux signal. The analysis reveals the key role of residual storages that are poorly visible in the hydrological response, but are shown to strongly affect water quality dynamics. A significant accuracy in reproducing data is shown by our calibrated model. A detailed representation of catchment-scale travel time distributions has been derived, including the time evolution of the overall dispersion processes (which can be expressed in terms of time-varying storage sampling functions). Mean computed travel times span a broad range of values (from 80 to 800 days) depending on the catchment state. Results also suggest that, in the average, discharge waters are younger than storage water. The model proves able to capture high-frequency fluctuations in the measured chloride concentrations, which are broadly explained by the sharp transition between groundwaters and faster flows originating from topsoil layers. This article was corrected on 22 JUN 2015. See the end of the full text for details.

Population Accessibility to Radiotherapy Services in New South Wales Region of Australia: a methodological contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, Nagesh; Wickramasuriya, Rohan; Miller, Andrew; Perez, Pascal

2015-05-01

This paper proposes an integrated modelling process to assess the population accessibility to radiotherapy treatment services in future based on future cancer incidence and road network-based accessibility. Previous research efforts assessed travel distance/time barriers affecting access to cancer treatment services, as well as epidemiological studies that showed that cancer incidence rates vary with population demography. It is established that travel distances to treatment centres and demographic profiles of the accessible regions greatly influence the demand for cancer radiotherapy (RT) services. However, an integrated service planning approach that combines spatially-explicit cancer incidence projections, and the RT services accessibility based on patient road network have never been attempted. This research work presents this novel methodology for the accessibility assessment of RT services and demonstrates its viability by modelling New South Wales (NSW) cancer incidence rates for different age-sex groups based on observed cancer incidence trends; estimating the road network-based access to current NSW treatment centres; and, projecting the demand for RT services in New South Wales, Australia from year 2011 to 2026.

Results From Wales' 2016 Report Card on Physical Activity for Children and Youth: Is Wales Turning the Tide on Children's Inactivity?

PubMed

Tyler, Richard; Mannello, Marianne; Mattingley, Rebecca; Roberts, Chris; Sage, Robert; Taylor, Suzan R; Ward, Malcolm; Williams, Simon; Stratton, Gareth

2016-11-01

This is the second Active Healthy Kids Wales Report Card. The 2016 version consolidates and translates research related to physical activity (PA) among children and youth in Wales, and aims to raise the awareness of children's engagement in PA and sedentary behaviors. Ten PA indicators were graded using the Active Healthy Kids-Canada Report Card methodology involving a synthesis and expert consensus of the best available evidence. Grades were assigned as follows: Overall PA, D+; Organized Sport Participation, C; Active and Outdoor Play, C; Active Transportation, C; Sedentary Behaviors, D-; Physical Literacy, INC; Family and Peer Influences, D+; School, B; Community and the Built Environment, C; and National Government Policy, Strategies, and Investments, B-. Despite the existence of sound policies, programs, and infrastructure, PA levels of children and youth in Wales are one of the lowest and sedentary behavior one of the highest globally. From the 2014 Report Card, the Family and Peer Influences grade improved from D to D+, whereas Community and the Built Environment dropped from B to C. These results indicate that a concerted effort is required to increase PA and decrease sedentary time in children and young people in Wales.

The changing trend in nitrate concentrations in major aquifers due to historical nitrate loading from agricultural land across England and Wales from 1925 to 2150.

PubMed

Wang, L; Stuart, M E; Lewis, M A; Ward, R S; Skirvin, D; Naden, P S; Collins, A L; Ascott, M J

2016-01-15

Nitrate is necessary for agricultural productivity, but can cause considerable problems if released into aquatic systems. Agricultural land is the major source of nitrates in UK groundwater. Due to the long time-lag in the groundwater system, it could take decades for leached nitrate from the soil to discharge into freshwaters. However, this nitrate time-lag has rarely been considered in environmental water management. Against this background, this paper presents an approach to modelling groundwater nitrate at the national scale, to simulate the impacts of historical nitrate loading from agricultural land on the evolution of groundwater nitrate concentrations. An additional process-based component was constructed for the saturated zone of significant aquifers in England and Wales. This uses a simple flow model which requires modelled recharge values, together with published aquifer properties and thickness data. A spatially distributed and temporally variable nitrate input function was also introduced. The sensitivity of parameters was analysed using Monte Carlo simulations. The model was calibrated using national nitrate monitoring data. Time series of annual average nitrate concentrations along with annual spatially distributed nitrate concentration maps from 1925 to 2150 were generated for 28 selected aquifer zones. The results show that 16 aquifer zones have an increasing trend in nitrate concentration, while average nitrate concentrations in the remaining 12 are declining. The results are also indicative of the trend in the flux of groundwater nitrate entering rivers through baseflow. The model thus enables the magnitude and timescale of groundwater nitrate response to be factored into source apportionment tools and to be taken into account alongside current planning of land-management options for reducing nitrate losses. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recent estimates of the incidence of hysterectomy in New South Wales and trends over the past 30 years.

PubMed

Yusuf, Farhat; Leeder, Stephen; Wilson, Andrew

2016-08-01

Hysterectomy remains one of the frequently used surgical operations on women in Australia despite new therapeutic approaches for most of the common conditions for which hysterectomy is indicated. To determine whether the surgical approach to hysterectomy has changed in New South Wales (NSW) over the period 1981 to 2010-2012. De-identified individual records for hysterectomy patients during the three-year period (January 2010 to December 2012) provided by the NSW Ministry of Health were used. Robotic assistance with surgery was not recorded in the hysterectomy data. Analysis largely involved the method of indirect standardisation. The average annual hysterectomy rate during 2010-2012 was 3.07 per 1000 females per annum; the majority of patients stayed an average of four days in hospital. Total abdominal and vaginal hysterectomies were the two most frequently used procedures. One-in-four procedures involved the use of laparoscopes. Principal diagnoses (in descending order) were disorders of menstruation and other abnormal bleeding, genital prolapse, leiomyoma of uterus, malignant neoplasm of genital organs and endometriosis. While declining trends in hysterectomy rates were noted since 1981, an increasing trend in the use of laparoscopy was evident. The 45% decrease in hysterectomy rates was indeed the most striking finding of our analysis. This is probably due to the development of alternative nonsurgical procedures such as oral hormone suppression of menstruation and the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system. © 2016 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

People's Collection Wales: Online Access to the Heritage of Wales from Museums, Archives and Libraries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tedd, Lucy A.

2011-01-01

Purpose: The People's Collection Wales aims to collect, interpret, distribute and discuss Wales' cultural heritage in an online environment. Individual users or local history societies are able to create their own digital collections, contribute relevant content, as well as access digital resources from heritage institutions. This paper aims to…

Child Deaths Due to Injury in the Four UK Countries: A Time Trends Study from 1980 to 2010

PubMed Central

Hardelid, Pia; Davey, Jonathan; Dattani, Nirupa; Gilbert, Ruth

2013-01-01

Background Injuries are an increasingly important cause of death in children worldwide, yet injury mortality is highly preventable. Determining patterns and trends in child injury mortality can identify groups at particularly high risk. We compare trends in child deaths due to injury in four UK countries, between 1980 and 2010. Methods We obtained information from death certificates on all deaths occurring between 1980 and 2010 in children aged 28 days to 18 years and resident in England, Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland. Injury deaths were defined by an external cause code recorded as the underlying cause of death. Injury mortality rates were analysed by type of injury, country of residence, age group, sex and time period. Results Child mortality due to injury has declined in all countries of the UK. England consistently experienced the lowest mortality rate throughout the study period. For children aged 10 to 18 years, differences between countries in mortality rates increased during the study period. Inter-country differences were largest for boys aged 10 to 18 years with mortality rate ratios of 1.38 (95% confidence interval 1.16, 1.64) for Wales, 1.68 (1.48, 1.91) for Scotland and 1.81 (1.50, 2.18) for Northern Ireland compared with England (the baseline) in 2006–10. The decline in mortality due to injury was accounted for by a decline in unintentional injuries. For older children, no declines were observed for deaths caused by self-harm, by assault or from undetermined intent in any UK country. Conclusion Whilst child deaths from injury have declined in all four UK countries, substantial differences in mortality rates remain between countries, particularly for older boys. This group stands to gain most from policy interventions to reduce deaths from injury in children. PMID:23874585

A change in the trend in dosulepin usage following the introduction of a prescribing indicator but not after two national safety warnings.

PubMed

Deslandes, P N; Jenkins, K S L; Haines, K E; Hutchings, S; Cannings-John, R; Lewis, T L; Bracchi, R C; Routledge, P A

2016-04-01

The tricyclic antidepressant dosulepin has been associated with an increased risk of toxicity in overdose compared with other antidepressants. In the UK, the MHRA and NICE have issued advice on the prescribing of dosulepin, and a National Prescribing Indicator (NPI) to monitor usage was introduced in Wales in 2011. The aim of this study was to assess whether trends in dosulepin usage in Wales and NE England changed following the two pieces of safety guidance and the introduction of the National Prescribing Indicator in Wales. Primary care dosulepin usage in the 12 months prior to and following MHRA safety advice (in 2007), NICE guideline CG90 (in 2009) and the introduction of the NPI (in 2011) was obtained. Usage was measured using defined daily doses (DDDs) per 1000 prescribing units (PUs). The trends in the 12 months prior to and following the introduction of prescribing advice and the NPI were compared using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. In Wales, the trend in dosulepin usage did not change significantly prior to and following the MHRA advice: -0·18 and -0·43 DDDs/1000PUs per month, respectively (P = 0·07), or prior to and following NICE CG90: -0·30 and -0·49 DDDs/1000PUs per month, respectively (P = 0·35). In the 12 months prior to and following the introduction of the NPI, the trend was -0·45 and -0·98 DDDs/1000PUs per month, respectively (P = 0·001). In NE England, the trend did not alter significantly following the NICE advice or the introduction of the NPI in Wales. The trend in dosulepin usage in Wales altered significantly following the introduction of the NPI, but not after the other prescribing advice. This association, coupled with the absence of a significant change in NE England over the same period, provided some evidence of the effectiveness of the NPI in prompting a change in prescribing behaviour in Wales. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The growing impact of HIV infection on the epidemiology of tuberculosis in England and Wales: 1999–2003

PubMed Central

Ahmed, Aliko B; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Delpech, Valerie; Lipman, Marc; Boccia, Delia; Forde, Josh; Antoine, Delphine; Watson, John M

2007-01-01

Background Previous studies have estimated the prevalence of tuberculosis and HIV infection in population subgroups in the UK. This study was undertaken to describe recent trends in the proportion of individuals with HIV infection among reported cases of tuberculosis in England and Wales, and to review the implications for clinical and public health care. Methods A population‐based matching study using national surveillance databases was used to investigate all persons aged 15 years and over reported with a diagnosis of tuberculosis to the Health Protection Agency in England and Wales in 1999–2003. Record linkage was used to match the national tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS surveillance databases to identify all cases of tuberculosis and determine the proportion of patients with tuberculosis co‐infected with HIV. The distribution and characteristics of the cases were determined and the trend examined by year. Results Of 30 670 cases of tuberculosis reported in England and Wales between 1999 and 2003, an estimated 1743 (5.7%) were co‐infected with HIV. There was a year on year increase in the proportion from 3.1% (169/5388) in 1999 to 8.3% (548/6584) in 2003 (p for trend <0.0001). Co‐infected patients contributed to almost a third of the increase in the number of cases of tuberculosis during the 5 year period. Patients co‐infected with HIV were predominantly those born abroad. 18.5% (n = 323) of co‐infected patients had not been reported as active cases of tuberculosis on the national tuberculosis database. Conclusion The proportion of patients with tuberculosis co‐infected with HIV in England and Wales is increasing, with the greatest impact on those born abroad regardless of their ethnic origin. With HIV infection contributing substantially to the increase in the number of cases of tuberculosis, close cooperation in the clinical management and accurate notification of patients is vital if appropriate care and public health action is to be

Time-varying trends of global vegetation activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, N.; Feng, X.; Fu, B.

2016-12-01

Vegetation plays an important role in regulating the energy change, water cycle and biochemical cycle in terrestrial ecosystems. Monitoring the dynamics of vegetation activity and understanding their driving factors have been an important issue in global change research. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an indicator of vegetation activity, has been widely used in investigating vegetation changes at regional and global scales. Most studies utilized linear regression or piecewise linear regression approaches to obtain an averaged changing rate over a certain time span, with an implicit assumption that the trend didn't change over time during that period. However, no evidence shows that this assumption is right for the non-linear and non-stationary NDVI time series. In this study, we adopted the multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) method to extract the time-varying trends of NDVI from original signals without any a priori assumption of their functional form. Our results show that vegetation trends are spatially and temporally non-uniform during 1982-2013. Most vegetated area exhibited greening trends in the 1980s. Nevertheless, the area with greening trends decreased over time since the early 1990s, and the greening trends have stalled or even reversed in many places. Regions with browning trends were mainly located in southern low latitudes in the 1980s, whose area decreased before the middle 1990s and then increased at an accelerated rate. The greening-to-browning reversals were widespread across all continents except Oceania (43% of the vegetated areas), most of which happened after the middle 1990s. In contrast, the browning-to-greening reversals occurred in smaller area and earlier time. The area with monotonic greening and browning trends accounted for 33% and 5% of the vegetated area, respectively. By performing partial correlation analyses between NDVI and climatic elements (temperature, precipitation and cloud cover

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Suicide and the 2008 economic recession: who is most at risk? Trends in suicide rates in England and Wales 2001-2011.

PubMed

Coope, Caroline; Gunnell, David; Hollingworth, William; Hawton, Keith; Kapur, Nav; Fearn, Vanessa; Wells, Claudia; Metcalfe, Chris

2014-09-01

The negative impacts of previous economic recessions on suicide rates have largely been attributed to rapid rises in unemployment in the context of inadequate social and work protection programmes. We have investigated trends in indicators of the 2008 economic recession and trends in suicide rates in England and Wales in men and women of working age (16-64 years old) for the period 2001-2011, before, during and after the economic recession, our aim was to identify demographic groups whose suicide rates were most affected. We found no clear evidence of an association between trends in female suicide rates and indicators of economic recession. Evidence of a halt in the previous downward trend in suicide rates occurred for men aged 16-34 years in 2006 (95% CI Quarter 3 (Q3) 2004, Q3 2007 for 16-24 year olds & Q1 2005, Q4 2006 for 25-34 year olds), whilst suicide rates in 35-44 year old men reversed from a downward to upward trend in early 2010 (95% CI Q4 2008, Q2 2011). For the younger men (16-34 years) this change preceded the sharp increases in redundancy and unemployment rates of early 2008 and lagged behind rising trends in house repossessions and bankruptcy that began around 2003. An exception were the 35-44 year old men for whom a change in suicide rate trends from downwards to upwards coincided with peaks in redundancies, unemployment and rises in long-term unemployment. Suicide rates across the decade rose monotonically in men aged 45-64 years. Male suicide in the most-to-medium deprived areas showed evidence of decreasing rates across the decade, whilst in the least-deprived areas suicide rates were fairly static but remained much lower than those in the most-deprived areas. There were small post-recession increases in the proportion of suicides in men in higher management/professional, small employer/self-employed occupations and fulltime education. A halt in the downward trend in suicide rates amongst men aged 16-34 years, may have begun before the 2008

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Education and Training for 16-18 Year Olds in England and Wales. Individual Paths and National Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Payne, Joan; Cheng, Yuan; Witherspoon, Sharon

This book describes the experiences of a series of five nationally representative cohorts of young people reaching school-leaving age between 1986 and 1993 who were surveyed as part of the continuing England and Wales Youth Cohort Study. The cohort study charts the path taken by young people over the first 3 years after compulsory education. Part…

The future of smoking-attributable mortality: the case of England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands.

PubMed

Stoeldraijer, Lenny; Bonneux, Luc; van Duin, Coen; van Wissen, Leo; Janssen, Fanny

2015-02-01

We formally estimate future smoking-attributable mortality up to 2050 for the total national populations of England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands, providing an update and extension of the descriptive smoking-epidemic model. We used smoking prevalence and population-level lung cancer mortality data for England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands, covering the period 1950-2009. To estimate the future smoking-attributable mortality fraction (SAF) we: (i) project lung cancer mortality by extrapolating age-period-cohort trends, using the observed convergence of smoking prevalence and similarities in past lung cancer mortality between men and women as input; and (ii) add other causes of death attributable to smoking by applying a simplified version of the indirect Peto-Lopez method to the projected lung cancer mortality. The SAF for men in 2009 was 19% (44 872 deaths) in England & Wales, 22% (5861 deaths) in Denmark and 25% (16 385 deaths) in the Netherlands. In our projections, these fractions decline to 6, 12 and 14%, respectively, in 2050. The SAF for women peaked at 14% (38 883 deaths) in 2008 in England & Wales, and is expected to peak in 2028 in Denmark (22%) and in 2033 in the Netherlands (23%). By 2050, a decline to 9, 17 and 19%, respectively, is foreseen. Different indirect estimation methods of the SAF in 2050 yield a range of 1-8% (England & Wales), 8-13% (Denmark) and 11-16% (the Netherlands) for men, and 7-16, 12-26 and 13-31% for women. From northern European data we project that smoking-attributable mortality will remain important for the future, especially for women. Whereas substantial differences between countries remain, the age-specific evolution of smoking-attributable mortality remains similar across countries and between sexes. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Trends in salmonella food poisoning in England and Wales 1941-72.

PubMed Central

McCoy, J. H.

1975-01-01

Cattle and pig herds and flocks of domestic fowl have formed the main reservoir of human salmonella food poisoning in England and Wales from 1941 to 1972. Changes in the incidence of human salmonella food poisoning and in the serotypes of salmonellas isolated from human infections are shown to have been associated with the introduction of new foods, with changes in animal husbandry, and with changes in the relative proportions of flesh food from different species consumed. New foods, dried powdered egg, liquid egg and frozen liquid egg were introduced during the period of food rationing which extended from 1940 to 1953. Changes in animal husbandry, in particular the intensive production of pigs, poultry and eggs, followed the re-establishment of pig herds and fowl flocks after the derationing of animal feed in 1953. The changes in the proportions of flesh foods consumed followed the introduction of frozen oven-ready fowl in the late 1950s and early 1960s which by 1964 became cheaper than traditional flesh foods. PMID:1054731

Suicide and the 2008 economic recession: Who is most at risk? Trends in suicide rates in England and Wales 2001–2011

PubMed Central

Coope, Caroline; Gunnell, David; Hollingworth, William; Hawton, Keith; Kapur, Nav; Fearn, Vanessa; Wells, Claudia; Metcalfe, Chris

2014-01-01

The negative impacts of previous economic recessions on suicide rates have largely been attributed to rapid rises in unemployment in the context of inadequate social and work protection programmes. We have investigated trends in indicators of the 2008 economic recession and trends in suicide rates in England and Wales in men and women of working age (16–64 years old) for the period 2001–2011, before, during and after the economic recession, our aim was to identify demographic groups whose suicide rates were most affected. We found no clear evidence of an association between trends in female suicide rates and indicators of economic recession. Evidence of a halt in the previous downward trend in suicide rates occurred for men aged 16–34 years in 2006 (95% CI Quarter 3 (Q3) 2004, Q3 2007 for 16–24 year olds & Q1 2005, Q4 2006 for 25–34 year olds), whilst suicide rates in 35–44 year old men reversed from a downward to upward trend in early 2010 (95% CI Q4 2008, Q2 2011). For the younger men (16–34 years) this change preceded the sharp increases in redundancy and unemployment rates of early 2008 and lagged behind rising trends in house repossessions and bankruptcy that began around 2003. An exception were the 35–44 year old men for whom a change in suicide rate trends from downwards to upwards coincided with peaks in redundancies, unemployment and rises in long-term unemployment. Suicide rates across the decade rose monotonically in men aged 45–64 years. Male suicide in the most-to-medium deprived areas showed evidence of decreasing rates across the decade, whilst in the least-deprived areas suicide rates were fairly static but remained much lower than those in the most-deprived areas. There were small post-recession increases in the proportion of suicides in men in higher management/professional, small employer/self-employed occupations and fulltime education. A halt in the downward trend in suicide rates amongst men aged 16–34 years, may have begun

Various Stone-Wales defects in phagraphene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Openov, L. A.; Podlivaev, A. I.

2016-08-01

Various Stone-Wales defects in phagraphene, which is a graphene allotrope, predicted recently are studied in terms of the nonorthogonal tight-binding model. The energies of the defect formation and the heights of energy barriers preventing the formation and annealing of the defects are found. Corresponding frequency factors in the Arrhenius formula are calculated. The evolution of the defect structure is studied in the real-time mode using the molecular dynamics method.

A mixed-methods evaluation of the Educational Supervision Agreement for Wales

PubMed Central

Bullock, Alison; Groves, Caroline; Saayman, Anton Gerhard

2017-01-01

Objectives In a bid to promote high-quality postgraduate education and training and support the General Medical Council’s (GMC) implementation plan for trainer recognition, the Wales Deanery developed the Educational Supervision Agreement (EdSA). This is a three-way agreement between Educational Supervisors, Local Education Providers and the Wales Deanery which clarifies roles, responsibilities and expectations for all. This paper reports on the formative evaluation of the EdSA after 1 year. Design Evaluation of pan-Wales EdSA roll-out (2013–2015) employed a mixed-methods approach: questionnaires (n=191), interviews (n=11) with educational supervisors and discussion with key stakeholders (GMC, All-Wales Trainer Recognition Group, Clinical Directors). Numerical data were analysed in SPSS V.20; open comments underwent thematic content analysis. Participants The study involved Educational Supervisors working in different specialties across Wales, UK. Results At the point of data collection, survey respondents represented 14% of signed agreements. Respondents believed the Agreement professionalises the Educational Supervisor role (85%, n=159 agreed), increases the accountability of Educational Supervisors (87%; n=160) and health boards (72%, n=131), provides leverage to negotiate supporting professional activities’ (SPA) time (76%, n=142) and continuing professional development (CPD) activities (71%, n=131). Factor analysis identified three principal factors: professionalisation of the educational supervisor role, supporting practice through training and feedback and implementation of the Agreement. Conclusions Our evidence suggests that respondents believed the Agreement would professionalise and support their Educational Supervisor role. Respondents showed enthusiasm for the Agreement and its role in maintaining high standards of training. PMID:28600372

Do stones still kill? An analysis of death from stone disease 1999-2013 in England and Wales.

PubMed

Kum, Francesca; Mahmalji, Wasim; Hale, Jemma; Thomas, Kay; Bultitude, Matthew; Glass, Jonathan

2016-07-01

To analyse the trends in the number of deaths attributable to urolithiasis in England and Wales over the past 15 years (1999-2013). Urolithiasis has an estimated lifetime risk of 12% in males and 6% in females and is not perceived as a life-threatening pathology. Admissions with urinary calculi contribute to 0.5% of all inpatient hospital stays, and the number of deaths attributable to stone disease has yet to be identified and presented. Office of National Statistics data relating to causes of death from urolithiasis, coded as International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 N20-N23, was collated and analysed for the 15-year period from 1999 to 2013 in England and Wales. These data were sub-categorised into anatomical location of calculi, age, and gender. In all, 1954 deaths were attributed to urolithiasis from 1999 to 2013 (mean 130.3 deaths/year). Of which, 141 were attributed to ureteric stones (mean 9.4 deaths/year). Calculi of the kidney and ureter accounted for 91% of all deaths secondary to urolithiasis; lower urinary tract (bladder or urethra) calculi contributed to only 7.9% of deaths. The data revealed an overall increasing trend in mortality from urolithiasis over this 15-year period, with an increase of 3.8 deaths/year based on a linear trend (R(2) = 0.65). Overall, the number of deaths in females was significantly higher than in males (ratio 1.5:1, P < 0.001); kidney and ureteric calculi causing death had a female preponderance (1.7:1, female:male); whereas calculi of the lower urinary tract was more common in males (1:2.2, female:male). Stone disease still causes death in the 21st century in England and Wales. This trend of increasing deaths must be placed in the context of the concurrent rising incidence of urolithiasis in the UK and the number of stone-related hospital episodes. The primary cause of death relating to complications of stone disease for each individual case should be further investigated to facilitate prevention of complications of

Children's Perceptions of National Identity in Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Alison; Laugharne, Janet

2013-01-01

The project forms part of a larger doctoral study which examines children's perceptions of national identity and its construction and importance in the world of the child in Wales. The research took place in a primary school class in the South Wales valleys, in a class of 27 children aged 7-8 years. Following an introductory activity, children…

Contribution of changing risk factors to the trend in breech presentation at term.

PubMed

Bin, Yu Sun; Roberts, Christine L; Nicholl, Michael C; Nassar, Natasha; Ford, Jane B

2016-12-01

Recent population-wide changes in perinatal risk factors may affect rates of breech presentation at birth, and have implications for the provision of breech services and training in breech management. To investigate whether changes in maternal and pregnancy characteristics explain the observed trend in breech presentation at term. All singleton term (≥37 week) births in New South Wales during 2002-2012 were identified through birth and associated hospital records. Annual rates of breech presentation were determined. Logistic regression modelling was used to predict expected rates of breech presentation and these were compared with observed rates over time. A priori predictors included maternal age, country of birth, parity, smoking during pregnancy, diabetes, pregnancy hypertension, placenta praevia, previous singleton term breech, previous caesarean section, infant sex, gestational age, birthweight and congenital anomalies. Hospital and Medicare data were used to assess concomitant trends in external cephalic version. Among 914 147 singleton term births, 3.1% were breech at delivery. Rates of breech presentation declined from 3.6% in 2002 to 2.7% in 2012 (test for trend P < 0.001), but was predicted to increase from 3.6% in 2002 to 4.3% in 2012 because of increased maternal age, nulliparity, maternal diabetes, history of breech presentation and previous caesarean section. However, use of external cephalic version appears to have increased over time. Breech presentation at delivery has decreased in New South Wales. Increased use of external cephalic version likely accounts for this decline, as changes in risk factors do not. © 2016 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

The Lightening Veil: Language Revitalization in Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Colin H.

2014-01-01

The Welsh language, which is indigenous to Wales, is one of six Celtic languages. It is spoken by 562,000 speakers, 19% of the population of Wales, according to the 2011 U.K. Census, and it is estimated that it is spoken by a further 200,000 residents elsewhere in the United Kingdom. No exact figures exist for the undoubted thousands of other…

Employers' Demand for and the Provision of Part-Time Higher Education for Employees.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trotman-Dickenson, Danusia

1987-01-01

A study of public and private employers' demand for part-time higher education for their employees and the response of institutions is reported. The study focuses on Wales and on the regional economic and social trends affecting educational demand and supply. Improved communication between employers, employees, and institutions is recommended.…

Trends in drug overdose deaths in England and Wales 1993-98: methadone does not kill more people than heroin.

PubMed

Hickman, Matthew; Madden, Peter; Henry, John; Baker, Allan; Wallace, Chris; Wakefield, Jon; Stimson, Gerry; Elliott, Paul

2003-04-01

To test the hypothesis that methadone is responsible for a greater increase in overdose deaths than heroin, and causes proportionally more overdose deaths than heroin at weekends. Multivariate analysis of 3961 death certificates mentioning heroin, morphine and/or methadone held on the Office for National Statistics drug-related poisoning mortality database from 1993 to 1998 in England and Wales. Percentage increase in deaths by year by drug, odds ratio (OR) of dying at the weekend from methadone-related overdose compared to dying from heroin/morphine overdose. From 1993 to 1998, annual opiate overdose deaths increased from 378 to 909. There was a 24.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 22-28%) yearly increase in heroin deaths compared to 9.4% (95% CI 6-13%) for methadone only. This difference was significant (P < 0.001 by test of interaction) after adjustment for sex, age group, polydrug use, area of residence and underlying cause of death. The largest number of deaths occurred on Saturday (673). The OR of death from methadone overdose on Saturday and Sunday was 1.48 (95% CI 1.29-1.71) for methadone-only deaths compared to dying from heroin/morphine at the weekend after adjustment for other covariates, but the OR was not significant (1.09, 95% CI 0.95-1.25) if the weekend was defined as Friday and Saturday. There was no evidence that the threefold increase in deaths over time was due to methadone. There was equivocal support only for the hypothesis that there was an excess of deaths from methadone at weekends. Increased interventions to prevent overdose among injectors in England and Wales are long overdue.

Trends in stage-specific breast cancer incidence in New South Wales, Australia: insights into the effects of 25 years of screening mammography.

PubMed

Jacklyn, Gemma; McGeechan, Kevin; Irwig, Les; Houssami, Nehmat; Morrell, Stephen; Bell, Katy; Barratt, Alexandra

2017-12-01

Screening mammography aims to improve breast cancer (BC) prognosis by increasing the incidence of early-stage tumours in order to decrease the incidence of late-stage cancer, but no reports have investigated these potential effects in an Australian population. Therefore we aimed to identify temporal trends in stage-specific BC in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, between 1972 and 2012. An observational study of women who received a diagnosis of BC from 1972-2012 as recorded in the NSW Cancer Registry, a population-based registry with almost complete coverage and high rates of histological verification. We analysed trends in stage-specific incidence before screening and compared them to periods after screening began. Our primary group of interest was women in the target age range of 50-69 years, though trends in women outside the target age were also assessed. Screening was not associated with lower incidence of late-stage BC at diagnosis. Incidence for all stages remained higher than prescreening levels. In women aged 50-69 years, the incidence of carcinoma in situ (CIS), localised and regional BC has more than doubled compared to the prescreening era, with incidence rate ratios ranging from 2.0 for regional (95% CI 1.95-2.13) to 121.8 for CIS (95% CI 82.58-179.72). Before the introduction of screening, there was a downward trend in distant metastatic BC incidence, and after the introduction of screening there was an increase (IRR 1.8; 95% CI 1.62-2.00). In women too young to screen the incidence of late-stage BC at diagnosis also increased, whereas localised disease was stable. The incidence of all stages of BC has increased over the past 40 years, with the greatest rise seen during the established screening period for women aged 50-69 years. Our findings suggest that some of the expected benefits of screening may not have been realised and are consistent with overdiagnosis.

Re-shaping NHS orthodontic provision - the North Wales experience.

PubMed

Lewis, B R K; Plunkett, D J; Hickman, J; Sandham, J S

2017-05-26

The orthodontic service provision within North Wales, in common with many areas of the United Kingdom, was experiencing increasing waiting times for assessment and treatment. Reasons for this included an increasing population, patient demand and fixed NHS contracted orthodontic provision. In addition to these universal challenges, the geography of North Wales contributed to difficulties in accessing care. It was felt that with a reshaping of the orthodontic services there was potential to enhance the quality of orthodontic care available to patients and deliver prudent NHS orthodontic services. Three distinct, but inter-related steps, were identified to progress the reshaping of the service with the intended outcome of achieving an improved co-ordinated service. Initially, this involved the re-commissioning of the primary care specialist service through a formal retendering process. Following this, a standardised orthodontic referral form was developed, to be used for all orthodontic referrals regardless of whether their destination was a primary or secondary care provider. Finally, a formal accreditation process for all non-specialist dentists who were undertaking NHS orthodontic treatment was developed and implemented. The successful outcome of this process was only possible because of the close working partnership between the North Wales Orthodontic Managed Clinical Network (OMCN) and Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board.

Trends in Haemophilus influenzae type b infections in adults in England and Wales: surveillance study

PubMed Central

McVernon, Jodie; Trotter, Caroline L; Slack, Mary P E; Ramsay, Mary E

2004-01-01

Objective To describe invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) infections in individuals aged 15 years or older in England and Wales between 1991 and 2003. Design Prospective, laboratory based surveillance of invasive Hib infections and cross sectional seroprevalence study. Setting England and Wales. Participants Cases were confirmed by isolation of H influenzae from a normally sterile site, or from a non-sterile site in cases with a diagnosis of epiglottitis. Excess serum samples collected from English 30-39 year olds as part of a national serosurvey were identified for the years 1990, 1994, 1997, 2000, and 2002. Main outcome measures The number of invasive Hib infections from 1991 to 2003. Population immunity to H influenzae type b in English adults was also measured. Results After routine infant immunisation was introduced in October 1992, adult Hib infections decreased initially but then rose from a low in 1998 to reach prevaccine levels in 2003. An associated fall in median Hib antibody concentrations occurred, from 1.29 μg/ml (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 1.64) in 1991 to 0.70 μg/ml (0.57 to 0.89) in 1994 (P = 0.006), with no significant change observed thereafter. Conclusions Although immunisation of infants resulted in an initial decline in Hib infections in adults, a resurgence in reported cases occurred in 2002-3. This rise was associated with an increase in cases in children and evidence of reduced immunity in older unimmunised cohorts. Childhood immunisation programmes may have unanticipated effects on the epidemiology of disease in older age groups, and surveillance strategies must be targeted at entire populations. PMID:15374916

Association between socioeconomic status, sex, and age at death from cystic fibrosis in England and Wales (1959 to 2008): cross sectional study.

PubMed

Barr, Helen L; Britton, John; Smyth, Alan R; Fogarty, Andrew W

2011-08-23

To determine the trend in the association between socioeconomic status and sex and median age at death from cystic fibrosis in England and Wales, over the past 50 years. Series of annual cross sectional studies of all registered deaths with a diagnosis of cystic fibrosis in England and Wales, from 1959 to 2008. We obtained national mortality data for cystic fibrosis from the Office for National Statistics. From 1959 to 2000, the Registrar General's Social Class coded socioeconomic status as manual or non-manual. From 2001 onwards, the National Statistics Socioeconomic Classification was implemented and socioeconomic status was split into three groups: professional and managerial, intermediate, and routine and manual. We calculated median age at death for every study year. We calculated the effects of sex and socioeconomic status on the odds of death above the median age at death for every study decade using logistic regression. From 1959 to 2008, 6750 deaths were attributed to cystic fibrosis in England and Wales. Males were more likely to die above the annual median age at death than females (from 1959 to 1999, adjusted odds ratio for socioeconomic status 1.28, 95% confidence intervals 1.13 to 1.45; from 2000 to 2008, 1.57, 1.18 to 2.08). Individuals in the highest socioeconomic class were also more likely to die above the median age of death than those in the lowest socioeconomic class (from 1959 to 2000, adjusted odds ratio for sex 2.50, 2.16 to 2.90; from 2001 to 2008, 1.89, 1.20 to 2.97). Socioeconomic status and sex remain strong determinants of survival from cystic fibrosis in England and Wales, and the magnitude of these effects does not appear to have substantially reduced over time.

Social capital and social exclusion in England and Wales (1972-1999).

PubMed

Li, Yaojun

2003-12-01

Recent research on social capital has explored trends in membership in voluntary organizations. However, there is currently little robust evidence on such trends in the UK since the 1970s, nor is there any analysis of whether participation bridges social divisions or accentuates them. This paper explores trends in participation in England and Wales since 1972 using data from the Social Mobility Inquiry of 1972 and the British Household Panel Survey of 1992 and 1999. We are concerned with social exclusion mechanisms in social capital generation in Britain over the three decades. Using binomial and multinomial models to 'unpack' the effects of socio-cultural factors on civic participation and on different types of associational membership, we test the thesis of across-the-board decline in social capital by Putnam (2000) and that of rising levels of middle-class social capital versus consistent low levels of working-class social capital by Hall (1999). The results show significant socio-cultural-gender differences, a relative stability of middle-class participation, and a rapid decline in the working-class access to social capital. We challenge the established accounts of both theses.

Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks.

PubMed

Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter

2008-05-01

Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.

Topological Anisotropy of Stone-Wales Waves in Graphenic Fragments

PubMed Central

Ori, Ottorino; Cataldo, Franco; Putz, Mihai V.

2011-01-01

Stone-Wales operators interchange four adjacent hexagons with two pentagon-heptagon 5|7 pairs that, graphically, may be iteratively propagated in the graphene layer, originating a new interesting structural defect called here Stone-Wales wave. By minimization, the Wiener index topological invariant evidences a marked anisotropy of the Stone-Wales defects that, topologically, are in fact preferably generated and propagated along the diagonal of the graphenic fragments, including carbon nanotubes and graphene nanoribbons. This peculiar edge-effect is shown in this paper having a predominant topological origin, leaving to future experimental investigations the task of verifying the occurrence in nature of wave-like defects similar to the ones proposed here. Graph-theoretical tools used in this paper for the generation and the propagation of the Stone-Wales defects waves are applicable to investigate isomeric modifications of chemical structures with various dimensionality like fullerenes, nanotubes, graphenic layers, schwarzites, zeolites. PMID:22174641

Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

PubMed

Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

2017-01-01

We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; p<0.001) were observed between online trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; p<0.001) and CDC (stationary-R 2 =0.318; p=0.014). These results suggest that online trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in

Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study

PubMed Central

Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam

2017-01-01

Objectives We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Design Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Results Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748–0.922; p<0.001) were observed between online trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R2=0.345; p<0.001) and CDC (stationary-R2=0.318; p=0.014). Conclusions These results suggest that online trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help

Impact of paracetamol pack size restrictions on poisoning from paracetamol in England and Wales: an observational study.

PubMed

Morgan, Oliver; Griffiths, Clare; Majeed, Azeem

2005-03-01

About 500 drug poisoning deaths involving paracetamol (acetaminophen) occur every year in England and Wales. To reduce the number of deaths, regulations were introduced in 1998 to restrict the sale of paracetamol. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of these regulations. Mortality data for England and Wales were provided by the Office for National Statistics. Deaths were defined as due to compound paracetamol (paracetamol in combination with another analgesic, a low dose opioid or other ingredients) or paracetamol only, with or without alcohol or other drugs. The Department of Health provided data on all hospital admissions with a primary diagnosis of paracetamol poisoning. Mortality rates for paracetamol only were similar for males and females, and decreased from about 4.5 to 2.8 per million between 1997 and 1999 and again from about 3.1 to 2.2 per million between 2001 and 2002. These falls may be attributable to random variation in the rates. Deaths involving compound paracetamol, which were not subject to the 1998 regulations, remained relatively constant over the study period. There was evidence of a decreasing trend in paracetamol only mortality rates and this followed overall trends for other drug poisoning excluding opioids and drugs of misuse. Hospital admissions due to paracetamol poisoning increased from about 27 000 to 33 000 between 1995/1996 and 1997/1998 and then decreased to 25 000 in 2001/2002. There were almost 50 per cent more admissions for females than males, with the highest admission rates amongst females aged 15-24 years old. Between 1993 and 2002, mortality rates and hospital admissions due to paracetamol poisoning declined. However, the contribution of the 1998 regulations to this decline is not clear. Paracetamol poisoning continues to be an important public health issue in England and Wales and represents significant workload for the NHS in England.

Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xian, T.; Tan, R.

2017-12-01

Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.

Oceanic Pb-isotopic sources of proterozoic and paleozoic volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits on Prince of Wales Island and vicinity, southeastern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ayuso, Robert A.; Karl, Susan M.; Slack, John F.; Haeussler, Peter J.; Bittenbender, Peter E.; Wandless, Gregory A.; Colvin, Anna

2005-01-01

Volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) deposits on Prince of Wales Island and vicinity in southeastern Alaska are associated with Late Proterozoic through Cambrian volcanosedimentary rocks of the Wales Group and with Ordovician through Early Silurian felsic volcanic rocks of the Moira Sound unit (new informal name). The massive sulfide deposits in the Wales Group include the Big Harbor, Copper City, Corbin, Keete Inlet, Khayyam, Ruby Tuesday, and Stumble-On deposits, and those in the Moira Sound unit include the Barrier Islands, Moira Copper, Niblack, and Nichols Bay deposits. Pb-isotopic signatures were determined on sulfide minerals (galena, pyrite, chalcopyrite, pyrrhotite, and sphalerite) to constrain metal sources of the massive sulfides and for comparison with data for other deposits in the region. Except for the Ruby Tuesday deposit, galena is relatively rare in most of these deposits. Pb-isotopic signatures distinguish the mainly Cu+Zn±Ag±Au massive sulfide deposits in the Wales Group from the Zn+Cu±Ag±Au massive sulfide deposits in the Moira Sound unit. Among the older group of deposits, the Khayyam deposit has the widest variation in Pb-isotopic ratios (206Pb/204Pb=17.169–18.021, 207Pb/204Pb=15.341–15.499, 208Pb/204Pb=36.546–37.817); data for the other massive sulfide deposits in the Wales Group overlap the isotopic variations in the Khayyam deposit. Pb-isotopic ratios for both groups of deposits are lower than those on the average crustal Pbevolution curve (µ=9.74), attesting to a large mantle influence in the Pb source. All the deposits show no evidence for Pb evolution primarily in the upper or lower continental crust. Samples from the younger group of deposits have scattered Pb-isotopic compositions and plot as a broad band on uranogenic and thorogenic Pb diagrams. Data for these deposits overlap the trend for massive sulfide deposits in the Wales Group but extend to significantly more radiogenic Pb-isotopic values. Pb-isotopic ratios of

Long-term effects of flooding on mortality in England and Wales, 1994-2005: controlled interrupted time-series analysis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Limited evidence suggests that being flooded may increase mortality and morbidity among affected householders not just at the time of the flood but for months afterwards. The objective of this study is to explore the methods for quantifying such long-term health effects of flooding by analysis of routine mortality registrations in England and Wales. Methods Mortality data, geo-referenced by postcode of residence, were linked to a national database of flood events for 1994 to 2005. The ratio of mortality in the post-flood year to that in the pre-flood year within flooded postcodes was compared with that in non-flooded boundary areas (within 5 km of a flood). Further analyses compared the observed number of flood-area deaths in the year after flooding with the number expected from analysis of mortality trends stratified by region, age-group, sex, deprivation group and urban-rural status. Results Among the 319 recorded floods, there were 771 deaths in the year before flooding and 693 deaths in the year after (post-/pre-flood ratio of 0.90, 95% CI 0.82, 1.00). This ratio did not vary substantially by age, sex, population density or deprivation. A similar post-flood 'deficit' of deaths was suggested by the analyses based on observed/expected deaths. Conclusions The observed post-flood 'deficit' of deaths is counter-intuitive and difficult to interpret because of the possible influence of population displacement caused by flooding. The bias that might arise from such displacement remains unquantified but has important implications for future studies that use place of residence as a marker of exposure. PMID:21288358

Effect of Hydrogen Adsorption on the Stone-Wales Transformation in Small-Diameter Carbon Nanotubes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Openov, L. A.; Podlivaev, A. I.

2018-04-01

The effect of hydrogenation of (4, 0) and (3, 0) carbon nanotubes on the Stone-Wales transformation is studied in the framework of the nonorthogonal tight-binding model. It is shown that the atomic hydrogen adsorption can lead to both a decrease and an increase in the barriers for the direct and inverse transformations depending on the orientation of a rotating C-C bond with respect to the nanotube axis. The characteristic times of formation and annealing the Stone-Wales defects have been estimated. The Young's moduli have been calculated.

Variation in geographic access to specialist inpatient hospices in England and Wales.

PubMed

Gatrell, Anthony C; Wood, D Justin

2012-07-01

We seek to map and describe variation in geographic access to the set of 189 specialist adult inpatient hospices in England and Wales. Using almost 35,000 small Census areas (Local Super Output Areas: LSOAs) as our units of analysis, the locations of hospices, and estimated drive times from LSOAs to hospices we construct an accessibility 'score' for each LSOA, for England and Wales as a whole. Data on cancer mortality are used as a proxy for the 'demand' for hospice care and we then identify that subset of small areas in which accessibility (service supply) is relatively poor yet the potential 'demand' for hospice services is above average. That subset is then filtered according to the deprivation score for each LSOA, in order to identify those LSOAs which are also above average in terms of deprivation. While urban areas are relatively well served, large parts of England and Wales have poor access to hospices, and there is a risk that the needs of those living in relatively deprived areas may be unmet. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mortality in young adults in England and Wales: the impact of the HIV epidemic.

PubMed

Nylén, G; Mortimer, J; Evans, B; Gill, N

1999-08-20

To quantify the contribution of the HIV epidemic to premature mortality in England and Wales 1985-1996. Surveillance of deaths in HIV-infected individuals and causes of death from death certificates. Time trends in age-specific mortality rates among 15-44 year olds and years of potential life lost (YPLL) to age 65 associated with HIV infection and other important causes of death in young adults. The crude age-specific mortality rates for all causes of death in the 15-44 year age band remained fairly constant between 1985 and 1996: in other age bands a decrease was seen. Deaths from both suicide and HIV increased in men aged 15-44 years. Although suicide accounted for a greater number of deaths throughout the period investigated, the largest proportional and absolute increase was seen for deaths in HIV-infected people. By 1996, the contribution of HIV to YPLL to age 65 varied from less than 0.5% in most rural localities to 20% of total YPLL in one London health authority. While part of the adverse trend in mortality in younger adults since 1985 was attributable to suicide, most resulted from HIV infection. The impact of HIV infection on mortality was greatest in London.

Defining geo-habitats for groundwater ecosystem assessments: an example from England and Wales (UK)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitowitz, Damiano C.; Maurice, Louise; Lewis, Melinda; Bloomfield, John P.; Reiss, Julia; Robertson, Anne L.

2017-12-01

Groundwater ecosystems comprising micro-organisms and metazoans provide an important contribution to global biodiversity. Their complexity depends on geology, which determines the physical habitat available, and the chemical conditions within it. Despite this, methods of classifying groundwater habitats using geological data are not well established and researchers have called for higher resolution habitat frameworks. A novel habitat typology for England and Wales (UK) is proposed, which distinguishes 11 geological habitats (geo-habitats) on hydrogeological principles and maps their distribution. Hydrogeological and hydrochemical data are used to determine the characteristics of each geo-habitat, and demonstrate their differences. Using these abiotic parameters, a new method to determine abiotic habitat quality is then developed. The geo-habitats had significantly different characteristics, validating the classification system. All geo-habitats were highly heterogeneous, containing both high quality habitat patches that are likely to be suitable for fauna, and areas of low quality that may limit faunal distributions. Karstic and porous habitats generally were higher quality than fractured habitats. Overall, 70% of England and Wales are covered by lower quality fractured habitats, with only 13% covered by higher quality habitats. The main areas of high quality habitats occur in central England as north-south trending belts, possibly facilitating dispersal along this axis. They are separated by low quality geo-habitats that may prevent east-west dispersal of fauna. In south-west England and Wales suitable geo-habitats occur as small isolated patches. Overall, this paper provides a new national-scale typology that is adaptable for studies in other geographic areas.

Support sought for petition on safer staffing levels in Wales.

PubMed

2014-11-01

RCN WALES is urging the public to sign an e-petition supporting draft legislation on safe staffing. The petition calls for support for the Safe Nursing Staffing Levels (Wales) Bill, drawn up by Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Kirsty Williams.

Suicide and accidental deaths in children and adolescents in England and Wales, 2001-2010.

PubMed

Windfuhr, Kirsten; While, David; Hunt, Isabelle M; Shaw, Jenny; Appleby, Louis; Kapur, Nav

2013-12-01

To investigate the impact of narrative verdicts on suicide statistics among 10-19-year-olds; to identify the number and rate of suicide and accidental deaths, particularly in 10-14-year-olds. National cohort study. England and Wales. Mid-year population estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) were used to calculate rates per 100,000 population for suicide (undetermined and suicide verdicts) and accidental deaths (poisoning, hanging) for those aged 10-14 and 15-19. Trends in rates over time (2001-2010) were investigated using Poisson regression. Interaction tests were carried out to determine differences in trends between the two time periods (2001-2005 and 2006-2010). There were 1523 suicides (2.25/100,000). Suicide rates were highest in those aged 15-19 years (4.04/100,000) and in males (3.14/100,000). Between 2001 and 2010, rates significantly decreased among those aged 15-19 years (incidence rate-ratio (IRR): 0.95; 95% CI 0.93 to 0.97), with no change in rates of accidental deaths (IRR: 1.01, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.07). However, there was a significant interaction between the two time periods for accidental poisonings (2001-2005: IRR: 0.79 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.91); 2006-2010: IRR: 1.01 (95% CI 0.89 to 1.15), interaction p=0.012) and accidental hangings (2001-2005: IRR: 0.93 (95% CI 0.76 to 1.14); 2006-2010: IRR: 1.25 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.49), interaction=0.01) Undetermined deaths significantly decreased among females aged 15-19 yeras (IRR: 0.93; 95% CI 0.88 to 0.98). There were no significant trends among 10-14-year-olds. Rates of suicide are higher among older adolescents and males. There was a significant fall in suicide rates in males aged 15-19 years that was not accounted for by changes in rates of accidental death. The absence of a significant trend in suicide or accidental deaths in those aged 10-14 years may have been the result of small numbers. However, monitoring should continue to identify longitudinal trends in all young people.

New South Wales annual vaccine-preventable disease report, 2013.

PubMed

Rosewell, Alexander; Spokes, Paula; Gilmour, Robin

2015-01-01

To describe the epidemiology of selected vaccine-preventable diseases in New South Wales, Australia for 2013. Data from the New South Wales Notifiable Conditions Information Management System were analysed by local health district of residence, age, Aboriginality, vaccination status and organism. Risk factor and vaccination status data were collected by public health units. Pertussis notification rates in infants were low, and no infant pertussis deaths were reported. Despite a high number of imported measles cases, there was limited secondary transmission. The invasive meningococcal disease notification rate declined, and disease due to serogroup C remained low and stable. Vaccine-preventable diseases were relatively well controlled in New South Wales in 2013, with declining or stable notification rates in most diseases compared with the previous year.

Dental prescribing in Wales and associated public health issues.

PubMed

Karki, A J; Holyfield, G; Thomas, D

2011-01-08

Dental prescribing data in Wales have not been studied in detail previously. The analysis of national data available from Health Solutions Wales showed that dental prescribing in Wales accounted for 9% of total antibacterial prescribing in primary care in 2008. Penicillin and metronidazole constituted the bulk of antibiotics prescribed by dentists. Since the publication of National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidance (March 2008) on prophylaxis against infective endocarditis, dental prescriptions for amoxicillin 3g sachets and clindamycin capsules have decreased. Dental prescriptions for fluoride preparations increased in number from 2007 to 2008. Dental prescribing of controlled drugs raises no concern. The figure for antibiotic prescribing in Wales is similar to that of England. Nevertheless, the figure seems a little high, indicating potential inappropriate prescribing behaviour among dentists. Antibiotic resistance is a major public health issue and many patients each year die from infections from bacterial strains that are resistant to one or more antibiotics. Inappropriate use of antibiotics is a major cause of antibiotic resistance and every effort should be made to reduce the number of inappropriate antibiotic prescriptions in dental practice.

Automated biosurveillance data from England and Wales, 1991-2011.

PubMed

Enki, Doyo G; Noufaily, Angela; Garthwaite, Paul H; Andrews, Nick J; Charlett, André; Lane, Chris; Farrington, C Paddy

2013-01-01

Outbreak detection systems for use with very large multiple surveillance databases must be suited both to the data available and to the requirements of full automation. To inform the development of more effective outbreak detection algorithms, we analyzed 20 years of data (1991-2011) from a large laboratory surveillance database used for outbreak detection in England and Wales. The data relate to 3,303 distinct types of infectious pathogens, with a frequency range spanning 6 orders of magnitude. Several hundred organism types were reported each week. We describe the diversity of seasonal patterns, trends, artifacts, and extra-Poisson variability to which an effective multiple laboratory-based outbreak detection system must adjust. We provide empirical information to guide the selection of simple statistical models for automated surveillance of multiple organisms, in the light of the key requirements of such outbreak detection systems, namely, robustness, flexibility, and sensitivity.

Temporal trends in orchidopexy, Great Britain, 1992-1998.

PubMed

Toledano, Mireille B; Hansell, Anna L; Jarup, Lars; Quinn, Mike; Jick, Susan; Elliott, Paul

2003-01-01

Concern has been expressed in recent years about worsening male reproductive health, possibly mediated by increasing exposures to environmental endocrine-disrupting agents. Trends suggested large increases in cryptorchidism in Britain and the United States between the 1950s and 1980s, although published data on recent trends have been scarce. We examined numbers of orchidopexy procedures, as a marker for cryptorchidism, using routine hospital admission data for England, Wales, and Scotland for fiscal years 1992-1993 through 1998-1999. Annual trends in orchidopexy rates were analyzed by age, in-patient admission versus day case, and geographical region. Orchidopexy rates were also obtained from the General Practice Research Database (GPRD) for England to cross-validate the hospital admissions data. Orchidopexy rates for boys 0-14 years old fell by 33% (from 23.5 to 15.8 per 10,000 population) between 1992 and 1998, with the steepest decline (50%) in 5-9-year-olds. The decreasing trend for 0-14-year-olds was evident in every region in England, in Wales, and in Scotland. Rates remained stable for men 15 or more years old, at 0.7 per 10,000. There was a marked shift from in-patient to day-case procedures. Rates from the GPRD showed a similar downward trend to the hospital data. Our findings could represent either an underlying decrease in the frequency of undescended testis or a fairly dramatic improvement in the diagnosis of cryptorchidism--resulting in fewer orchidopexies performed for retractile testis--in Great Britain during the 1990s, or both. Either way, our findings do not support the postulate of a recent worsening of male reproductive health of the scale suggested by some recent commentators on the endocrine disruptor hypothesis.

Temporal trends in orchidopexy, Great Britain, 1992-1998.

PubMed Central

Toledano, Mireille B; Hansell, Anna L; Jarup, Lars; Quinn, Mike; Jick, Susan; Elliott, Paul

2003-01-01

Concern has been expressed in recent years about worsening male reproductive health, possibly mediated by increasing exposures to environmental endocrine-disrupting agents. Trends suggested large increases in cryptorchidism in Britain and the United States between the 1950s and 1980s, although published data on recent trends have been scarce. We examined numbers of orchidopexy procedures, as a marker for cryptorchidism, using routine hospital admission data for England, Wales, and Scotland for fiscal years 1992-1993 through 1998-1999. Annual trends in orchidopexy rates were analyzed by age, in-patient admission versus day case, and geographical region. Orchidopexy rates were also obtained from the General Practice Research Database (GPRD) for England to cross-validate the hospital admissions data. Orchidopexy rates for boys 0-14 years old fell by 33% (from 23.5 to 15.8 per 10,000 population) between 1992 and 1998, with the steepest decline (50%) in 5-9-year-olds. The decreasing trend for 0-14-year-olds was evident in every region in England, in Wales, and in Scotland. Rates remained stable for men 15 or more years old, at 0.7 per 10,000. There was a marked shift from in-patient to day-case procedures. Rates from the GPRD showed a similar downward trend to the hospital data. Our findings could represent either an underlying decrease in the frequency of undescended testis or a fairly dramatic improvement in the diagnosis of cryptorchidism--resulting in fewer orchidopexies performed for retractile testis--in Great Britain during the 1990s, or both. Either way, our findings do not support the postulate of a recent worsening of male reproductive health of the scale suggested by some recent commentators on the endocrine disruptor hypothesis. PMID:12515691

New South Wales annual vaccine-preventable disease report, 2013

PubMed Central

Rosewell, Alexander; Spokes, Paula

2015-01-01

Aim To describe the epidemiology of selected vaccine-preventable diseases in New South Wales, Australia for 2013. Methods Data from the New South Wales Notifiable Conditions Information Management System were analysed by local health district of residence, age, Aboriginality, vaccination status and organism. Risk factor and vaccination status data were collected by public health units. Results Pertussis notification rates in infants were low, and no infant pertussis deaths were reported. Despite a high number of imported measles cases, there was limited secondary transmission. The invasive meningococcal disease notification rate declined, and disease due to serogroup C remained low and stable. Conclusion Vaccine-preventable diseases were relatively well controlled in New South Wales in 2013, with declining or stable notification rates in most diseases compared with the previous year. PMID:26306215

Organic debris in small streams, Prince of Wales Island, Southeast Alaska.

Treesearch

Frederick J. Swanson; Mason D. Bryant; George W. Lienkaemper; James R. Sedell

1984-01-01

Quantities of coarse and fine organic debris in streams flowing through areas clearcut before 1975 are 3 and 6 times greater than quantities in streams sampled in old-growth stands in Tongass National Forest, central Prince of Wales Island, southeast Alaska. The concentration of debris in streams of clearcut Sitka spruce-western hemlock forests in southeast Alaska,...

The Development and Status of Earth Science Education: A Comparison of Three Case Studies: Israel, England and Wales and the United States of America. Part I.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Orion, Nir; King, Chris; Krockover, Gerald H.; Adams, Paul E.

1999-01-01

Explores the development and status of Earth Science Education in Israel and England and Wales. Finds that, despite separate traditions for education in the Earth Sciences, there are a surprisingly large number of commonalities between current trends in each of the countries in the study, and each has had difficulty determining what constitutes an…

Diet and coronary heart disease in England and Wales during and after the second world war.

PubMed

Barker, D J; Osmond, C

1986-03-01

During the second world war there were large changes in consumption of fats, fibre, and sugar in Britain. These changes matched recent recommendations made by the Committee on Medical Aspects of Food Policy (COMA) with the object of reducing the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD). It is widely believed that CHD mortality fell during the war. This paper re-examines CHD mortality among middle-aged people in England and Wales from 1931 to 1967. After allowance for changes in the rules for coding cause of death, and for the sharp increase in all-causes mortality in 1940, there is little to suggest that time trends in CHD were much influenced by the war. Because of confounding variables, this does not argue against the COMA report. However, it gives no support to the view that compliance with the recommendations on fat, fibre, and sugar will lead, by itself, to an appreciable fall in CHD mortality in middle-aged people.

Smoke Blankets New South Wales, Australia

NASA Image and Video Library

2002-01-09

Australia largest city of Sydney was clouded with smoke when more than 70 wildfires raged across the state of New South Wales when NASA Terra satellite captured this image the morning of December 30, 2001.

Exploring experiences of cancer care in Wales: a thematic analysis of free-text responses to the 2013 Wales Cancer Patient Experience Survey (WCPES).

PubMed

Bracher, Michael; Corner, Dame Jessica; Wagland, Richard

2016-09-02

To provide the first systematic analysis of a national (Wales) sample of free-text comments from patients with cancer, to determine emerging themes and insights regarding experiences of cancer care in Wales. Thematic analysis of free-text data from a population-based survey. Adult patients with a confirmed cancer diagnosis treated within a 3-month period during 2012 in the 7 health boards and 1 trust providing cancer care in Wales. Free-text categorised by theme, coded as positive or negative, with ratios. Overarching themes are identified incorporating comment categories. 4672 respondents (of n=7352 survey respondents) provided free-text comments. Data were coded using a multistage approach: (1) coding of comments into general categories (eg, nursing, surgery, etc), (2) coding of subcategories within main categories (eg, nursing care, nursing communication, etc), (3) cross-sectional analysis to identify themes cutting across categories, (4) mapping of categories/subcategories to corresponding closed questions in the Wales Cancer Patient Experience Survey (WCPES) data for comparison. Most free-text respondents (82%, n 3818) provided positive comments about their cancer care, with 49% (n=2313) giving a negative comment (ratio 0.6:1, negative-to-positive). 3172 respondents (67.9% of free-text respondents) provided a comment mapping to 1 of 4 overarching themes: communication (n=1673, 35.8% free-text respondents, a ratio of 1.0:1); waiting during the treatment and/or post-treatment phase (n=923, 19.8%, ratio 1.5:1); staffing and resource levels (n=671, 14.4% ratio 5.3:1); speed and quality of diagnostic care (n=374, 8.0%, ratio 1.5:1). Within these areas, constituent subthemes are discussed. This study presents specific areas of concern for patients with cancer, and reveals a number of themes present across the cancer journey. While the majority of comments were positive, analysis reveals concerns shared by significant numbers of respondents. Timely communication can

Shiga Toxin–Producing Escherichia coli O157, England and Wales, 1983–2012

PubMed Central

Byrne, Lisa; Smith, Geraldine A.; Elson, Richard; Harris, John P.; Salmon, Roland; Smith, Robert; O’Brien, Sarah J.; Adak, Goutam K.; Jenkins, Claire

2016-01-01

We evaluated clinical Shiga toxin–producing Escherichia coli O157 infections in England and Wales during 1983–2012 to describe changes in microbiological and surveillance methods. A strain replacement event was captured; phage type (PT) 2 decreased to account for just 3% of cases by 2012, whereas PT8 and PT21/28 strains concurrently emerged, constituting almost two thirds of cases by 2012. Despite interventions to control and reduce transmission, incidence remained constant. However, sources of infection changed over time; outbreaks caused by contaminated meat and milk declined, suggesting that interventions aimed at reducing meat cross-contamination were effective. Petting farm and school and nursery outbreaks increased, suggesting the emergence of other modes of transmission and potentially contributing to the sustained incidence over time. Studies assessing interventions and consideration of policies and guidance should be undertaken to reduce Shiga toxin–producing E. coli O157 infections in England and Wales in line with the latest epidemiologic findings. PMID:26982243

Land Cover and Climate Change May Limit Invasiveness of Rhododendron ponticum in Wales.

PubMed

Manzoor, Syed A; Griffiths, Geoffrey; Iizuka, Kotaro; Lukac, Martin

2018-01-01

Invasive plant species represent a serious threat to biodiversity precipitating a sustained global effort to eradicate or at least control the spread of this phenomenon. Current distribution ranges of many invasive species are likely to be modified in the future by land cover and climate change. Thus, invasion management can be made more effective by forecasting the potential spread of invasive species. Rhododendron ponticum (L.) is an aggressive invasive species which appears well suited to western areas of the UK. We made use of MAXENT modeling environment to develop a current distribution model and to assess the likely effects of land cover and climatic conditions (LCCs) on the future distribution of this species in the Snowdonia National park in Wales. Six global circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), together with a land cover simulation for 2050 were used to investigate species' response to future environmental conditions. Having considered a range of environmental variables as predictors and carried out the AICc-based model selection, we find that under all LCCs considered in this study, the range of R. ponticum in Wales is likely to contract in the future. Land cover and topographic variables were found to be the most important predictors of the distribution of R. ponticum . This information, together with maps indicating future distribution trends will aid the development of mitigation practices to control R. ponticum .

Automated Biosurveillance Data from England and Wales, 1991–2011

PubMed Central

Enki, Doyo G.; Noufaily, Angela; Garthwaite, Paul H.; Andrews, Nick J.; Charlett, André; Lane, Chris

2013-01-01

Outbreak detection systems for use with very large multiple surveillance databases must be suited both to the data available and to the requirements of full automation. To inform the development of more effective outbreak detection algorithms, we analyzed 20 years of data (1991–2011) from a large laboratory surveillance database used for outbreak detection in England and Wales. The data relate to 3,303 distinct types of infectious pathogens, with a frequency range spanning 6 orders of magnitude. Several hundred organism types were reported each week. We describe the diversity of seasonal patterns, trends, artifacts, and extra-Poisson variability to which an effective multiple laboratory-based outbreak detection system must adjust. We provide empirical information to guide the selection of simple statistical models for automated surveillance of multiple organisms, in the light of the key requirements of such outbreak detection systems, namely, robustness, flexibility, and sensitivity. PMID:23260848

Long Term Precipitation Pattern Identification and Derivation of Non Linear Precipitation Trend in a Catchment using Singular Spectrum Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unnikrishnan, Poornima; Jothiprakash, Vinayakam

2017-04-01

Precipitation is the major component in the hydrologic cycle. Awareness of not only the total amount of rainfall pertaining to a catchment, but also the pattern of its spatial and temporal distribution are equally important in the management of water resources systems in an efficient way. Trend is the long term direction of a time series; it determines the overall pattern of a time series. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is a time series analysis technique that decomposes the time series into small components (eigen triples). This property of the method of SSA has been utilized to extract the trend component of the rainfall time series. In order to derive trend from the rainfall time series, we need to select components corresponding to trend from the eigen triples. For this purpose, periodogram analysis of the eigen triples have been proposed to be coupled with SSA, in the present study. In the study, seasonal data of England and Wales Precipitation (EWP) for a time period of 1766-2013 have been analyzed and non linear trend have been derived out of the precipitation data. In order to compare the performance of SSA in deriving trend component, Mann Kendall (MK) test is also used to detect trends in EWP seasonal series and the results have been compared. The result showed that the MK test could detect the presence of positive or negative trend for a significance level, whereas the proposed methodology of SSA could extract the non-linear trend present in the rainfall series along with its shape. We will discuss further the comparison of both the methodologies along with the results in the presentation.

Epidemiology of chickenpox in England and Wales, 1967-85

PubMed Central

Joseph, Carol A; Noah, Norman D

1988-01-01

Routine sources of data on chickenpox morbidity and mortality in England and Wales were reviewed for 1967-85. Only two epidemics occurred, one in 1967 and one in 1980, both of which were immediately followed by two to three years of low incidence. The age distribution of the disease appears to be changing, with more cases now being reported in children aged 0-4 years. The number of deaths in adults have, however, increased, particularly those deaths that are associated with pneumonia and immunosuppression. At present in England and Wales more deaths are attributed to chickenpox than to whooping cough and mumps. Widespread use of selective immunisation against chickenpox might be justified in England and Wales, but before routine immunisation of the child population can be considered special surveys to determine the incidence and severity of chickenpox and the effect of the vaccine on the subsequent development of herpes zoster are needed as well as cost-benefit studies of immunisation. PMID:3128363

The Dark Figure of Infanticide in England and Wales: Complexities of Diagnosis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brookman, Fiona; Nolan, Jane

2006-01-01

Infants aged younger than 12 months have the highest homicide victimization rate of any single age group in England and Wales. In addition, there are good grounds for believing that the official homicide statistics for this particular age group are an underestimate and subject to distortion. At the same time there is evidence mounting in the…

Increasing chlamydia diagnoses but little change in hospitalisations for ectopic pregnancy and infertility among women in New South Wales from 2001 to 2008.

PubMed

Liu, Bette; Donovan, Basil; Parker, Jim; Guy, Rebecca; Hocking, Jane; Kaldor, John M; Wand, Handan; Jorm, Louisa

2012-09-01

As genital chlamydia (Chlamydia trachomatis) notifications have increased in Australia, time trends in hospitalisations for ectopic pregnancy and female infertility between 2001 and 2008 in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, and their relationship to trends in chlamydia notifications in women were assessed. Annual rates of chlamydia notification, and hospitalisations for female infertility or ectopic pregnancy in women aged 15-44 years in NSW were calculated using routinely collected data. Chlamydia notifications and hospital separations occurring within each year belonging to the same woman were linked using probabilistic linkage of identifiers so that multiple notifications and admissions for one woman in each calendar year were only counted once. From 2001 to 2008, the annual rate of chlamydia diagnoses in women increased from 157 to 477 per 100000 population (P(trend)<0.001). Over the same period, the annual hospitalisation rate for women with an ectopic pregnancy decreased from 14.3 to 12.6 per 1000 births (P(trend)<0.001). This decrease was mostly in women aged 25-44 years, with no appreciable fall in women aged 15-24 years (P(trend)=0.8). Meanwhile, the hospitalisation rate for women with infertility of female origin did not follow a consistent trend: between 2001 and 2008, it fluctuated between a low of 479 and a high of 554 per 10000 women who were seeking pregnancy. These trends in ectopic pregnancy and female infertility suggest that the large increase in chlamydia notifications may not reflect hospitalisations for these two proposed chlamydia-related sequelae.

Private Tutoring in Wales: Patterns of Private Investment and Public Provision

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pearce, Sioned; Power, Sally; Taylor, Chris

2018-01-01

This paper seeks to contribute to the growing research base about the extent and significance of "shadow education" through drawing on data from a national survey of over 1000 key stage 2, 3 and 4 pupils in Wales and over 200 of their parents. Wales provides an important lens to look at shadow education because of the political…

33 CFR 334.1330 - Bering Strait, Alaska; naval restricted area off Cape Prince of Wales.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... restricted area off Cape Prince of Wales. 334.1330 Section 334.1330 Navigation and Navigable Waters CORPS OF....1330 Bering Strait, Alaska; naval restricted area off Cape Prince of Wales. (a) The area. An area 2,000 feet wide extending from a point on Cape Prince of Wales marked by a triangular cable marker located...

A TIME-TRENDS STUDY OF THE OCCURRENCES AND ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (CDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (CDFs) and certain non- and mono-ortho substituted polychlorinated biphenyls (cp-PCBs) are a general class of chlorinated aromatic compounds that are considered as dioxin-like. Because these chemicals are highly toxic, are resistant to physical, chemical and biological degradation and transformation processes, are highly lipophilic and bioaccumulate into ecological and agricultural food chains, attention has been directed to the identification of anthropogenic source activities with the objective of reducing the overall environmental burden. In this regard, certain fundamental questions arise as to environmental trends over time in terms of environmental concentrations and fluxes to environmental sinks. When did these chemicals initially appear in the general environment and are they related to anthropogenic activities? What has been the chronology of environmental burden from the recent time to decades in the past in terms of environmental concentrations and fluxes to the sink? Is there evidence of any trends in environmental burden with time? To address these fundamental questions, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) in collaboration with the United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has completed a time-trends study of the occurrences and levels of CDDs, CDFs and cp-PCBs in the U.S. environment using dateable sediment deposits obtained from 11 freshwater lake

International trends in health science librarianship Part 8: the UK and the Republic of Ireland Northern Ireland.

PubMed

Latimer, Karen; Lawton, Aoife

2013-12-01

This is the 8th in a series of articles exploring international trends in health science librarianship with a focus on the UK and Ireland in the first decade of the 21st century. The invited authors are from Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Future issues will track trends from Scotland and Wales. © 2013 The authors. Health Information and Libraries Journal © 2013 Health Libraries Group.

Effect of hydrogen adsorption on the formation and annealing of Stone-Wales defects in graphene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podlivaev, A. I.; Openov, L. A.

2015-12-01

The heights of energy barriers preventing the formation and annealing of Stone-Wales defects in graphene with a hydrogen atom adsorbed on the defect or in its immediate vicinity have been calculated using the atomistic computer simulation. It has been shown that, in the presence of hydrogen, both barriers are significantly lower than those in the absence of hydrogen. Based on the analysis of the potential energy surface, the frequency factors have been calculated for two different paths of the Stone-Wales transformation, and the temperature dependences of the corresponding annealing times of the defects have been found. The results obtained have been compared with the first-principles calculations and molecular dynamics data.

Suicide in murderers in England and Wales.

PubMed

Lester, David

2003-06-01

In England and Wales, the suicide rate of murderers was positively associated with the male suicide rate in the general population, and both of these rates were positively associated with the unemployment rate.

Nation State versus National Identity: State and Inspectorate in Mid-Victorian Wales.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, H. G.

2000-01-01

Examines the relationship between state and inspectorate in Wales by tracing the history of Harry Longueville Jones, the first Her Majesty's Inspectorate (HMI) of Church schools. Considers how he tried to shape an educational system suitable for the needs of Welsh communities. Includes a historical description of Wales. (CMK)

The Origins and Growth of Ragged Schools in Wales, 1847-c. 1900.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grigg, Russell

2002-01-01

Investigates the establishment of ragged schools in nineteenth century Wales. States they dealt with the many shabbily clad, underprivileged youth found roaming the streets. Explains Wales focused on creating church and boarding schools. Concludes that other schools eventually provided welfare based services which caused ragged school's demise.…

Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this study, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that themore » effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Finally, overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.« less

Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

2017-01-01

A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this paper, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that the effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.

Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

DOE PAGES

Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

2016-10-20

A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this study, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that themore » effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Finally, overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.« less

Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

2013-01-01

Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

Translanguaging in Bilingual Schools in Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Bryn

2017-01-01

This article examines the use of translanguaging as a pedagogical tool to support learning within bilingual classrooms in schools in Wales. Translanguaging is considered within non-pedagogic and pedagogic school contexts; hence, a distinction is made between universal and classroom translanguaging. Translanguaging has evoked debate surrounding the…

Deprivation and mortality in non-metropolitan areas of England and Wales.

PubMed

Jessop, E G

1996-10-01

To test the hypothesis that the relationship between deprivation and mortality is weaker among residents of non-metropolitan areas of England and Wales than among residents of metropolitan areas. This study compared mortality, expressed as standardised mortality ratios (SMRs), in residents of metropolitan and non-metropolitan districts at three levels of deprivation classified by an electoral ward deprivation score and by home and car ownership. SMRs were computed for all causes of death, for bronchitis and asthma (ICD9 codes 490-493), and for accident, violence, and poisoning (ICD9 codes 800-999). England and Wales. Members of the longitudinal study of the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, a quasi-random 1% sample of the population of England and Wales. There was an association between deprivation and mortality which was clear for all cause mortality, more noticeable for respiratory disease, and less clear for deaths from accident, violence, and poison. In general, the results showed a remarkable similarity between metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas. This study does not support the hypothesis that the relationship between mortality and deprivation differs between residents of metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas of England and Wales.

Nasal cancer in England and Wales: an occupational survey.

PubMed Central

Acheson, E D; Cowdell, R H; Rang, E H

1981-01-01

A national survey of the incidence of nasal cancer in England and Wales during the period 1963-7 with special reference to occupation confirmed the well-known increases in incidence of nasal cancer in cabinet makers and wood machinists, together with the absence of any significant increase in carpenters and joiners, and the increases in boot and shoe operatives and repairers, and in nickel smelters in South Wales. The significant excesses of cases found among coalminers, furnacemen in the gas, coke, and chemical industry, and furnacemen and labourers in foundries may be associated with exposure to coal and coke dust or may be spurious. No excess of nasal cancer was found among male textile workers. Excesses of uncertain significance were found among tailors and dressmakers, bakers and pastry cooks, and printers. Apart from the well-known relationships between adenocarcinoma and work in the furniture and footwear industries there is no definite indication in this survey of any association between a particular histological type of nasal tumour and occupation in England and Wales. PMID:7272233

Bardsey Island, Wales

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-12-01

Lying 3 km off the Llyn peninsula of Wales, the Bardsey Island is known as the Island of 20,000 saints. While today's permanent population numbers only four, the island was once an important religious site, with a 6th century monastery. It is the legendary burial site of King Arthur. Another legend holds that anyone who died on the island would not go to hell. The image was acquired April 4, 2006, covers an area of 6 by 10 km, and is located at 52.7 degrees north, 4.8 degrees west. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21182

Trends in snowmelt-related streamflow timing in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudley, R. W.; Hodgkins, G. A.; McHale, M. R.; Kolian, M. J.; Renard, B.

2017-04-01

Changes in snowmelt-related streamflow timing have implications for water availability and use as well as ecologically relevant shifts in streamflow. Historical trends in snowmelt-related streamflow timing (winter-spring center volume date, WSCVD) were computed for minimally disturbed river basins in the conterminous United States. WSCVD was computed by summing daily streamflow for a seasonal window then calculating the day that half of the seasonal volume had flowed past the gage. We used basins where at least 30 percent of annual precipitation was received as snow, and streamflow data were restricted to regionally based winter-spring periods to focus the analyses on snowmelt-related streamflow. Trends over time in WSCVD at gages in the eastern U.S. were relatively homogenous in magnitude and direction and statistically significant; median WSCVD was earlier by 8.2 days (1.1 days/decade) and 8.6 days (1.6 days/decade) for 1940-2014 and 1960-2014 periods respectively. Fewer trends in the West were significant though most trends indicated earlier WSCVD over time. Trends at low-to-mid elevation (<1600 m) basins in the West, predominantly located in the Northwest, had median earlier WSCVD by 6.8 days (1940-2014, 0.9 days/decade) and 3.4 days (1960-2014, 0.6 days/decade). Streamflow timing at high-elevation (⩾1600 m) basins in the West had median earlier WSCVD by 4.0 days (1940-2014, 0.5 days/decade) and 5.2 days (1960-2014, 0.9 days/decade). Trends toward earlier WSCVD in the Northwest were not statistically significant, differing from previous studies that observed many large and (or) significant trends in this region. Much of this difference is likely due to the sensitivity of trend tests to the time period being tested, as well as differences in the streamflow timing metrics used among the studies. Mean February-May air temperature was significantly correlated with WSCVD at 100 percent of the study gages (field significant, p < 0.0001), demonstrating the

Sexual Difficulties for Persons with Multiple Sclerosis in New South Wales, Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Redelman, Margaret Juliet

2009-01-01

This 1992 study was conducted to ascertain the incidence of sexual difficulties in individuals diagnosed with multiple sclerosis (MS) living in New South Wales, Australia. New South Wales is a state lying roughly 29-36 [degrees] south of the equator. This is currently the largest study conducted. The anonymous questionnaire completed by 283…

The maldistribution of general practitioners in England and Wales: 1974–2003

PubMed Central

Hann, Mark; Gravelle, Hugh

2004-01-01

Background: The geographical distribution of general practitioners (GPs) is a persistent policy concern within the National Health Service. Maldistribution across family health service authorities in England and Wales fell between 1974 and the mid-1980s but then remained, at best, constant until the mid-1990s. Aim: To estimate levels of maldistribution over the period 1994–2003 and to examine the long-term trend in maldistribution from 1974–2003. Design: Annual snapshots from the GP census. Setting: One hundred 2001 ‘frozen’ health authorities in England and Wales for 1994–2003 and 98 family health service authorities for 1974–1995. Method: Ratios of GPs to raw and need-adjusted populations were calculated for each health authority for each year using four methods of need adjustment: age-related capitation payments, national age- and sex-specific consultation rates, national age- and sex-specific limiting long-term illness rates, and health authority-specific mortality. Three summary measures of maldistribution across health authorities in the GP to population ratio — the decile ratio, the Gini coefficient, and the Atkinson index — were calculated for each year. Results: Maldistribution of GPs as measured by the Gini coefficient and Atkinson index increased from the mid-1980s to 2003, but the decile ratio showed little change over the entire 1974–2003 period. Unrestricted GP principals and equivalents were more equitably distributed than other types of GP. Conclusion: The 20% increase in the number of unrestricted GPs between 1985 and 2003 did not lead to a more equal distribution. PMID:15588532

Cross-national time trends in bullying behaviour 1994-2006: findings from Europe and North America.

PubMed

Molcho, Michal; Craig, Wendy; Due, Pernille; Pickett, William; Harel-Fisch, Yossi; Overpeck, Mary

2009-09-01

To identify trends over 12 years in the prevalence of bullying and associated victimization among adolescents in North American and European countries. Cross-sectional self-report surveys were obtained from nationally representative samples of 11-15 year old school children in 21 countries in 1993/94 and in 27 countries in each of 1997/98, 2001/02 and 2005/06. Measures included involvement in bullying as either a perpetrator and/or victim. Consistent decreases in the prevalence of bullying were reported between 1993/94 to 2005/06 in most countries. Geographic patterns show consistent decreases in bullying in Western European countries and in most Eastern European countries. An increase or no change in prevalence was evident in almost all English speaking countries participating in the study (England, Scotland, Wales, Ireland and Canada, but not in the USA). Study findings demonstrated a significant decrease in involvement in bullying behaviour in most participating countries. This is encouraging news for policy-makers and practitioners working in the field of bullying prevention.

Detection time for global and regional sea level trends and accelerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordà, G.

2014-10-01

Many studies analyze trends on sea level data with the underlying purpose of finding indications of a long-term change that could be interpreted as the signature of anthropogenic climate change. The identification of a long-term trend is a signal-to-noise problem where the natural variability (the "noise") can mask the long-term trend (the "signal"). The signal-to-noise ratio depends on the magnitude of the long-term trend, on the magnitude of the natural variability, and on the length of the record, as the climate noise is larger when averaged over short time scales and becomes smaller over longer averaging periods. In this paper, we evaluate the time required to detect centennial sea level linear trends and accelerations at global and regional scales. Using model results and tide gauge observations, we find that the averaged detection time for a centennial linear trend is 87.9, 76.0, 59.3, 40.3, and 25.2 years for trends of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, and 10.0 mm/yr, respectively. However, in regions with large decadal variations like the Gulf Stream or the Circumpolar current, these values can increase up to a 50%. The spatial pattern of the detection time for sea level accelerations is almost identical. The main difference is that the length of the records has to be about 40-60 years longer to detect an acceleration than to detect a linear trend leading to an equivalent change after 100 years. Finally, we have used a new sea level reconstruction, which provides a more accurate representation of interannual variability for the last century in order to estimate the detection time for global mean sea level trends and accelerations. Our results suggest that the signature of natural variability in a 30 year global mean sea level record would be less than 1 mm/yr. Therefore, at least 2.2 mm/yr of the recent sea level trend estimated by altimetry cannot be attributed to natural multidecadal variability. This article was corrected on 19 NOV 2014. See the end of the full text

Impact on alcohol purchasing of a ban on multi-buy promotions: a quasi-experimental evaluation comparing Scotland with England and Wales

PubMed Central

Nakamura, Ryota; Suhrcke, Marc; Pechey, Rachel; Morciano, Marcello; Roland, Martin; Marteau, Theresa M

2014-01-01

Aims To evaluate the impact of the 2011 Scottish ban on multi-buy promotions of alcohol in retail stores. Design and setting Difference-in-differences analysis was used to estimate the impact of the ban on the volume of alcohol purchased by Scottish households, compared with those in England and Wales, between January 2010 and June 2012. Participants A total of 22 356 households in Scotland, England and Wales. Measurements Records of alcohol purchasing from each of four categories (beer and cider, wine, spirits and flavoured alcoholic beverages), as well as total volume of pure alcohol purchased. Findings Controlling for general time trends and household heterogeneity, there was no significant effect of the multi-buy ban in Scotland on volume of alcohol purchased either for the whole population or for individual socio-economic groups. There was also no significant effect on those who were large pre-ban purchasers of alcohol. Most multi-buys were for beer and cider or for wine. The frequency of shopping trips involving beer and cider purchases increased by 9.2% following the ban (P < 0.01), while the number of products purchased on each trip decreased by 8.1% (P < 0.01). For wine, however, these effects were not significant. Conclusions Banning multi-buy promotions for alcohol in Scotland did not reduce alcohol purchasing in the short term. Wider regulation of price promotion and price may be needed to achieve this. PMID:24251415

Wales as a Setting for Children's Fantasy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kiefer, Barbara Z.

1982-01-01

Examines three works of fantasy that have been awarded the Newbery or Carnegie Medal during the last 15 years ("The High King,""The Owl Service," and "The Grey King") and that have used Wales as their setting. (HOD)

Changes in Maternal Age in England and Wales--Implications for Down Syndrome

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crane, Elizabeth; Morris, Joan K.

2006-01-01

The risk of having a pregnancy with Down syndrome increases with maternal age. The percentage of all births in England and Wales to mothers aged 35 and over increased from 9% in 1989 to 19% in 2003. A 51% increase in the numbers of pregnancies with Down syndrome has been observed over the same time period (from 954 to 1440). Due to improvements in…

Primary Humanities: A Perspective from Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Mark; Whitehouse, Sarah

2017-01-01

How the humanities subjects are represented in primary schools in Wales has been influenced by curriculum developments including Curriculum Cymraeg, the Skills Framework and the Foundation Phase. A central tenet of Welsh Government policy has been to actively encourage schools to promote a sense of "Welshness" through curriculum content,…

Hepatitis E in England and Wales.

PubMed

Lewis, Hannah C; Boisson, Sophie; Ijaz, Samreen; Hewitt, Kirsten; Ngui, Siew Lin; Boxall, Elizabeth; Teo, Chong Gee; Morgan, Dilys

2008-01-01

In 2005, 329 cases of hepatitis E virus infection were confirmed in England and Wales; 33 were confirmed indigenous infections, and a further 67 were estimated to be indigenous infections. Hepatitis E should be considered in the investigation of patients with hepatitis even if they have no history of travel.

An Integrated Library Platform: Wales' Approach to Delivering Digital Information and Resources Nationally

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bevan, Paul; Tyler, Alyson

2009-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to outline the developments and strategies employed to supply online library services in Wales through a national platform: library.wales.org These services include: the "Cat Cymru" cross-catalogue search, centrally procured subscription resources and local library microsites. Design/methodology/approach: The…

Econophysics — complex correlations and trend switchings in financial time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preis, T.

2011-03-01

This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

Deprivation and mortality in non-metropolitan areas of England and Wales.

PubMed Central

Jessop, E G

1996-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that the relationship between deprivation and mortality is weaker among residents of non-metropolitan areas of England and Wales than among residents of metropolitan areas. DESIGN: This study compared mortality, expressed as standardised mortality ratios (SMRs), in residents of metropolitan and non-metropolitan districts at three levels of deprivation classified by an electoral ward deprivation score and by home and car ownership. SMRs were computed for all causes of death, for bronchitis and asthma (ICD9 codes 490-493), and for accident, violence, and poisoning (ICD9 codes 800-999). SETTING: England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: Members of the longitudinal study of the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, a quasi-random 1% sample of the population of England and Wales. MAIN RESULTS: There was an association between deprivation and mortality which was clear for all cause mortality, more noticeable for respiratory disease, and less clear for deaths from accident, violence, and poison. In general, the results showed a remarkable similarity between metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas. CONCLUSIONS: This study does not support the hypothesis that the relationship between mortality and deprivation differs between residents of metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas of England and Wales. PMID:8944858

Hepatitis E in England and Wales

PubMed Central

Lewis, Hannah C.; Boisson, Sophie; Ijaz, Samreen; Hewitt, Kirsten; Ngui, Siew Lin; Boxall, Elizabeth; Teo, Chong Gee

2008-01-01

In 2005, 329 cases of hepatitis E virus infection were confirmed in England and Wales; 33 were confirmed indigenous infections, and a further 67 were estimated to be indigenous infections. Hepatitis E should be considered in the investigation of patients with hepatitis even if they have no history of travel. PMID:18258100

Our Vision for a Sustainable Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davidson, Jane

2010-01-01

The Welsh Assembly Government is committed to putting sustainable development at the heart of all it does. In May 2009, the Assembly launched its latest scheme, "One Wales: One Planet," which sets out a clear definition of sustainable development as enhancing the economic, social and environmental wellbeing of people and communities,…

Epidemiological Evidence That Garden Birds Are a Source of Human Salmonellosis in England and Wales

PubMed Central

Lawson, Becki; de Pinna, Elizabeth; Horton, Robert A.; Macgregor, Shaheed K.; John, Shinto K.; Chantrey, Julian; Duff, J. Paul; Kirkwood, James K.; Simpson, Victor R.; Robinson, Robert A.; Wain, John; Cunningham, Andrew A.

2014-01-01

The importance of wild bird populations as a reservoir of zoonotic pathogens is well established. Salmonellosis is a frequently diagnosed infectious cause of mortality of garden birds in England and Wales, predominantly caused by Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serovar Typhimurium definitive phage types 40, 56(v) and 160. In Britain, these phage types are considered highly host-adapted with a high degree of genetic similarity amongst isolates, and in some instances are clonal. Pulsed field gel electrophoresis, however, demonstrated minimal variation amongst matched DT40 and DT56(v) isolates derived from passerine and human incidents of salmonellosis across England in 2000–2007. Also, during the period 1993–2012, similar temporal and spatial trends of infection with these S. Typhimurium phage types occurred in both the British garden bird and human populations; 1.6% of all S. Typhimurium (0.2% of all Salmonella) isolates from humans in England and Wales over the period 2000–2010. These findings support the hypothesis that garden birds act as the primary reservoir of infection for these zoonotic bacteria. Most passerine salmonellosis outbreaks identified occurred at and around feeding stations, which are likely sites of public exposure to sick or dead garden birds and their faeces. We, therefore, advise the public to practise routine personal hygiene measures when feeding wild birds and especially when handling sick wild birds. PMID:24586464

Economic growth and health progress in England and Wales: 160 years of a changing relation.

PubMed

Tapia Granados, José A

2012-03-01

Using data for England and Wales during the years 1840-2000, a negative relation is found between economic growth--measured by the rate of growth of gross domestic product (GDP)--and health progress--as indexed by the annual increase in life expectancy at birth (LEB). That is, the lower is the rate of growth of the economy, the greater is the annual increase in LEB for both males and females. This effect is much stronger, however, in 1900-1950 than in 1950-2000, and is very weak in the 19th century. It appears basically at lag zero, though some short-lag effects of the same negative sign are found. In the other direction of causality, there are very small effects of the change in LEB on economic growth. These results add to an emerging consensus that in the context of long-term declining trends, mortality oscillates procyclically during the business cycle, declining faster in recessions. Therefore, LEB increases faster during recessions than during expansions. The investigation also shows how the relation between economic growth and health progress changed in England and Wales during the study period. No evidence of cointegration between income--as indexed by GDP or GDP per capita--and health--as indexed by LEB--is found. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Former director of RCN Wales Liz Hewett began at Ty Maeth in 1998.

PubMed

Lenzy, Tracy

2016-06-01

Great story in Nursing Standard about the book Nursing Matters, which delves into the 50th anniversary of the RCN headquarters in Wales, Ty Maeth (features, May 18). However, Liz Hewett began working at the RCN in Wales in 1998 - not in 1988 as stated in the article.

Time trends of physical activity and television viewing time in Brazil: 2006-2012.

PubMed

Mielke, Grégore I; Hallal, Pedro C; Malta, Deborah C; Lee, I-Min

2014-08-15

Despite recent advances in surveillance of physical activity, data on time trends of physical activity in low and middle-income countries are lacking. This study describes time trends in physical activity and television viewing between 2006 and 2012 among Brazilian adults. Data from 371,271 adult participants (18 + years) in the Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Illnesses using Telephone Survey (VIGITEL) were analysed. Time trends in leisure-time physical activity (≥ 5 days/wk; ≥ 30 min/day), transportation physical activity (using bicycle or walking for ≥ 30 minutes per day as a means of transportation to/from work) and proportion of participants spending more than three hours per day watching television were analysed. Annual changes according to sex, age and years of schooling were calculated. There was an increase in leisure-time physical activity from 12.8% in 2006 to 14.9% in 2012 (annual increase of 1.9%; p < 0.001). This increase was more marked in younger participants and those with high-school education. Transportation physical activity decreased 12.9% per year (p < 0.001) from 2006 to 2008 and 5.8% per year from 2009 to 2012 (p < 0.001). The annual decline in television viewing time was 5% (p < 0.001) between 2006 and 2009 and 2% (p = 0.16) between 2010 and 2012. National survey data from Brazil indicate that leisure-time physical activity appears to be increasing, while television viewing time appears to be decreasing in recent years. However, transportation physical activity has been declining. These data are important for informing national public health policies.

Traumatic brain injury in England and Wales: prospective audit of epidemiology, complications and standardised mortality

PubMed Central

Lawrence, T; Bouamra, O; Woodford, M; Lecky, F; Hutchinson, P J

2016-01-01

Objectives To provide a comprehensive assessment of the management of traumatic brain injury (TBI) relating to epidemiology, complications and standardised mortality across specialist units. Design The Trauma Audit and Research Network collects data prospectively on patients suffering trauma across England and Wales. We analysed all data collected on patients with TBI between April 2014 and June 2015. Setting Data were collected on patients presenting to emergency departments across 187 hospitals including 26 with specialist neurosurgical services, incorporating factors previously identified in the Ps14 multivariate logistic regression (Ps14n) model multivariate TBI outcome prediction model. The frequency and timing of secondary transfer to neurosurgical centres was assessed. Results We identified 15 820 patients with TBI presenting to neurosurgical centres directly (6258), transferred from a district hospital to a neurosurgical centre (3682) and remaining in a district general hospital (5880). The commonest mechanisms of injury were falls in the elderly and road traffic collisions in the young, which were more likely to present in coma. In severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) ≤8), the median time from admission to imaging with CT scan is 0.5 hours. Median time to craniotomy from admission is 2.6 hours and median time to intracranial pressure monitoring is 3 hours. The most frequently documented complication of severe TBI is bronchopneumonia in 5% of patients. Risk-adjusted W scores derived from the Ps14n model indicate that no neurosurgical unit fell outside the 3 SD limits on a funnel plot. Conclusions We provide the first comprehensive report of the management of TBI in England and Wales, including data from all neurosurgical units. These data provide transparency and suggests equity of access to high-quality TBI management provided in England and Wales. PMID:27884843

Co-operation and conflict under hard and soft contracting regimes: case studies from England and Wales

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background This paper examines NHS secondary care contracting in England and Wales in a period which saw increasing policy divergence between the two systems. At face value, England was making greater use of market levers and utilising harder-edged service contracts incorporating financial penalties and incentives, while Wales was retreating from the 1990s internal market and emphasising cooperation and flexibility in the contracting process. But there were also cross-border spill-overs involving common contracting technologies and management cultures that meant that differences in on-the-ground contracting practices might be smaller than headline policy differences suggested. Methods The nature of real-world contracting behaviour was investigated by undertaking two qualitative case studies in England and two in Wales, each based on a local purchaser/provider network. The case studies involved ethnographic observations and interviews with staff in primary care trusts (PCTs) or local health boards (LHBs), NHS or Foundation trusts, and the overseeing Strategic Health Authority or NHS Wales regional office, as well as scrutiny of relevant documents. Results Wider policy differences between the two NHS systems were reflected in differing contracting frameworks, involving regional commissioning in Wales and commissioning by either a PCT, or co-operating pair of PCTs in our English case studies, and also in different oversight arrangements by higher tiers of the service. However, long-term relationships and trust between purchasers and providers had an important role in both systems when the financial viability of organisations was at risk. In England, the study found examples where both PCTs and trusts relaxed contractual requirements to assist partners faced with deficits. In Wales, news of plans to end the purchaser/provider split meant a return to less precisely-specified block contracts and a renewed concern to build cooperation between LHB and trust staff

Co-operation and conflict under hard and soft contracting regimes: case studies from England and Wales.

PubMed

Hughes, David; Allen, Pauline; Doheny, Shane; Petsoulas, Christina; Vincent-Jones, Peter

2013-01-01

This paper examines NHS secondary care contracting in England and Wales in a period which saw increasing policy divergence between the two systems. At face value, England was making greater use of market levers and utilising harder-edged service contracts incorporating financial penalties and incentives, while Wales was retreating from the 1990 s internal market and emphasising cooperation and flexibility in the contracting process. But there were also cross-border spill-overs involving common contracting technologies and management cultures that meant that differences in on-the-ground contracting practices might be smaller than headline policy differences suggested. The nature of real-world contracting behaviour was investigated by undertaking two qualitative case studies in England and two in Wales, each based on a local purchaser/provider network. The case studies involved ethnographic observations and interviews with staff in primary care trusts (PCTs) or local health boards (LHBs), NHS or Foundation trusts, and the overseeing Strategic Health Authority or NHS Wales regional office, as well as scrutiny of relevant documents. Wider policy differences between the two NHS systems were reflected in differing contracting frameworks, involving regional commissioning in Wales and commissioning by either a PCT, or co-operating pair of PCTs in our English case studies, and also in different oversight arrangements by higher tiers of the service. However, long-term relationships and trust between purchasers and providers had an important role in both systems when the financial viability of organisations was at risk. In England, the study found examples where both PCTs and trusts relaxed contractual requirements to assist partners faced with deficits. In Wales, news of plans to end the purchaser/provider split meant a return to less precisely-specified block contracts and a renewed concern to build cooperation between LHB and trust staff. The interdependency of local

Recent changes in salt use and stroke mortality in England and Wales. Any help for the salt-hypertension debate?

PubMed Central

Cummins, R O

1983-01-01

This analysis attempts to fill the gap in the epidemiological evidence about the relation between dietary salt and hypertension. Changes in the purchase of salt in England and Wales are compared with changes in mortality from cerebrovascular disease (1958-78). Stroke mortality, a major sequel of hypertension, has declined in this period. Consumer purchases of salt have decreased also, as suggested by the National Food Survey. While these trends are consistent with the salt-hypertension hypothesis, the picture is confused by an increase in meals eaten outside the home, by the consumption of more processed food, and by a higher prevalence of refrigerators. Other events, such as medical treatment of hypertension or changes in the case fatality rate, could have contributed to the decline in stroke mortality. This secular trend analysis, using available data, does not clarify the salt-hypertension debate. PMID:6875440

Marine Science in Southern Wales.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-11-05

George Deacon, founder and formerly head of the UK Institute of Oceanographic Sciences, and Sir Alister Hardy, professor emeritus from Oxford University... head up the new oceandraphy program at its inception. Undergraduate teaching began in 1968 with 30 students, and the first gradu- ates in oceanography...Wales. Zoology Prof. E.W. Knight-Jones collaborates with his wife, Phyllis, in the study of the nervous systems, behavior, and embryology of enteropneusta

A View from England and Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ingham, Roger

2016-01-01

This commentary outlines developments regarding Sex and Relationships Education (SRE, akin to Comprehensive Sex Education) in England and Wales over the past 15 years or so. BZgA has been a WHO/Europe collaborating centre for sexual and reproductive health since 2003. In this capacity, BZgA contributes to the development and dissemination of WHO…

Comparison of elderly suicide rates among migrants in England and Wales with their country of origin.

PubMed

Shah, Ajit; Lindesay, James; Dennis, Mick

2009-03-01

The black and minority ethnic (BME) elderly population size in England and Wales has progressively increased over the last three decades. Only two studies, both well over a decade old, have compared suicide rates in BME groups in England and Wales with those in their country of origin. A study comparing suicide rates among elderly migrants in England and Wales and in their country of origin using the latest available mortality data from the Office of National Statistics and the World Health Organization was conducted. There were wide variations in standardised mortality ratios for elderly suicides among migrants from different countries compared with those born in England and Wales and in their country of origin. There was convergence towards elderly suicide rates for England and Wales in some migrant groups in males in the age-bands 65-74 years and 75 + years, and in females in the age-band 75 + years. However, males aged 75 + years from most migrant groups had higher rates than those born in England and Wales. A more detailed analysis of suicide of older people from migrant groups is required to determine vulnerability and protective influences.

Work-related mortality in England and Wales, 1979-2000.

PubMed

Coggon, David; Harris, E Clare; Brown, Terry; Rice, Simon; Palmer, Keith T

2010-12-01

To explore time trends in deaths attributable to work in England and Wales, and identify priorities for prevention, we conducted a proportional analysis of mortality by occupation over a 22-year period. Analysis was based on deaths in men aged 20-74 years during 1979-1980 and 1982-2000 with a recorded occupation. Proportional mortality ratios, standardised for age and social class, were calculated for pre-specified combinations of occupation and cause of death, for which excess mortality could reasonably be attributed to work. Differences between observed and expected numbers of deaths by cause and occupation were expressed as annual excess death rates. Mortality attributable to work declined substantially over the period of study, with total excess death rates of 733.2 per year during 1979-1990 and 471.7 per year during 1991-2000. The largest contributing hazards were chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and pneumoconiosis in coal miners, pleural cancer from asbestos, and motor vehicle accidents in lorry drivers. In contrast to most other hazards, there was no clear decline in excess mortality attributable to asbestos, or in deaths from sino-nasal cancer associated with exposure to wood dust. The overall decline in mortality attributable to work is likely to reflect reduced employment in more hazardous occupations, as well as improvements in working conditions. It is imperative to ensure that occupational exposures to asbestos and wood dust are now adequately controlled. Further research is needed on accidents involving lorries with the aim of developing more effective strategies for the prevention of injury.

The Decline and Revival of Music Education in New South Wales Schools, 1920-1956

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chaseling, Marilyn; Boyd, William E.

2014-01-01

This paper overviews the decline and revival of music education in New South Wales schools from 1920 to 1956. Commencing with a focus on vocal music during the period up to 1932, a time of decline in music teaching, the paper examines initiatives introduced in 1933 to address shortcomings in music education, and the subsequent changes in…

Ordovician "sphinctozoan" sponges from Prince of Wales Island, southeastern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rigby, J.K.; Karl, Susan M.; Blodgett, R.B.; Baichtal, J.F.

2005-01-01

A faunule of silicified hypercalcified "sphinctozoan" sponges has been recovered from a clast of Upper Ordovician limestone out of the Early Devonian Karheen Formation on Prince of Wales Island in southeastern Alaska. Included in the faunule are abundant examples of the new genus Girtyocoeliana, represented by Girtyocoeliana epiporata (Rigby and Potter), and Corymbospongia adnata Rigby and Potter, along with rare Corymbospongia amplia n. sp., and Girtyocoelia(?) sp., plus common Amblysiphonella sp. 1 and rare Amblysiphonella(?) sp. 2. The assemblage is similar to that from Ordovician clasts from the eastern Klamath Mountains of northern California. This indicates that the Alexander terrane of southeastern Alaska is related paleogeographically to the lithologically and paleontologically similar terrane of the eastern Klamath Mountains. This lithology and fossil assemblage of the clast cannot be tied to any currently known local rock units on Prince of Wales Island. Other clasts in the conglomerate appear to have been locally derived, so it is inferred that the limestone clasts were also locally derived, indicating the presence of a previously undocumented Ordovician limestone unit on northern Prince of Wales Island. 

Economics of a reduction in smoking: case study from Heartbeat Wales.

PubMed Central

Phillips, C J; Prowle, M J

1993-01-01

STUDY OBJECTIVE--This study aims to apply economic principles and techniques in evaluating a health promotion programme. DESIGN--This study is an economic appraisal of the Heartbeat Wales no smoking intervention programme. The costs incurred over the four year period 1985-89 have been identified and estimates have been made of the likely future impact of the reduced smoking prevalence within Wales in terms of reduced morbidity and displaced mortality in three disease groups--coronary heart disease, lung cancer, and chronic bronchitis. SETTING--Wales, UK. RESULTS--The net present value of benefits is considerably greater than costs in terms of both the NHS and the economy as a whole in Wales. In addition, the net costs per life year saved shows that the programme generates additional working life years at relatively low cost. Because not all the benefits can be fully attributed to the programme 'impact rates' ranging from 100 to 10% have been applied to the level of benefits. The evidence suggests that even if only 10% of the benefits could be attributed to the programme there is still a positive net present value of benefits. The relative efficiency of this programme has not been considered here. CONCLUSION--Large scale benefits to the NHS and the economy as a whole can be derived from reductions in smoking. PMID:8350035

Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

1999-02-01

The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

Law and Order...and the Prince of Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bernard, Thomas L.

1970-01-01

Brief historical account setting forth the manner of fusion of a number of races to become the British, and the significant part played by the very first Prince of Wales in initiating this process. (RJ)

Estimating trends in atmospheric water vapor and temperature time series over Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alshawaf, Fadwa; Balidakis, Kyriakos; Dick, Galina; Heise, Stefan; Wickert, Jens

2017-08-01

Ground-based GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) has efficiently been used since the 1990s as a meteorological observing system. Recently scientists have used GNSS time series of precipitable water vapor (PWV) for climate research. In this work, we compare the temporal trends estimated from GNSS time series with those estimated from European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data and meteorological measurements. We aim to evaluate climate evolution in Germany by monitoring different atmospheric variables such as temperature and PWV. PWV time series were obtained by three methods: (1) estimated from ground-based GNSS observations using the method of precise point positioning, (2) inferred from ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and (3) determined based on daily in situ measurements of temperature and relative humidity. The other relevant atmospheric parameters are available from surface measurements of meteorological stations or derived from ERA-Interim. The trends are estimated using two methods: the first applies least squares to deseasonalized time series and the second uses the Theil-Sen estimator. The trends estimated at 113 GNSS sites, with 10 to 19 years temporal coverage, vary between -1.5 and 2.3 mm decade-1 with standard deviations below 0.25 mm decade-1. These results were validated by estimating the trends from ERA-Interim data over the same time windows, which show similar values. These values of the trend depend on the length and the variations of the time series. Therefore, to give a mean value of the PWV trend over Germany, we estimated the trends using ERA-Interim spanning from 1991 to 2016 (26 years) at 227 synoptic stations over Germany. The ERA-Interim data show positive PWV trends of 0.33 ± 0.06 mm decade-1 with standard errors below 0.03 mm decade-1. The increment in PWV varies between 4.5 and 6.5 % per degree Celsius rise in temperature, which is comparable to the theoretical rate of the Clausius

Understanding drivers of Demand for Emergency Service Trends in Years 2010-2014 in New South Wales: An initial overview of the DESTINY project.

PubMed

Dinh, Michael M; Berendsen Russell, Saartje; Bein, Kendall J; Chalkley, Dane; Muscatello, David; Paoloni, Richard; Ivers, Rebecca

2016-04-01

This study aims to describe the general characteristics and data definitions used in a population-based data set of ED presentations in New South Wales (NSW), used to form the basis of future-trend analyses. Retrospective analysis of the Emergency Department Data Collection registry, which provided clinical and demographic information of ED presentations across all EDs in NSW between 2010 and 2014. Presenting problems and ED diagnoses were classified using broad clinical categories including injury/musculoskeletal, respiratory, cardiovascular, ear nose and throat, and mental health. Presentations were linked by patient to allow for analysis of representations, and population data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. There were 11.8 million presentations that were analysed from 150 EDs (80.6% of all EDs). The rate of ED presentations was highest in those aged 85 years and older and appears to increase across all age groups between 2010 and 2014. The most common ED diagnosis categories were injury/musculoskeletal (27.5%) followed by abdominal/gastrointestinal (12.3%), respiratory (9%) and cardiovascular (8%). Both the Systematised Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms (66%) and the International Classification of Diseases (24%) were used to code ED diagnoses. The elderly population had the highest rate of ED attendances. The use of diverse diagnosis classifications and source information systems may present problems with further analysis. Patterns and characteristics of ED presentations in NSW were broadly consistent with those reported in other states in Australia. © 2016 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

Courtship, sex and poverty: illegitimacy in eighteenth-century Wales

PubMed Central

Muir, Angela Joy

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT This article sheds new light on illegitimacy in eighteenth-century Britain through an analysis of evidence from 36 parishes across the former Welsh counties Montgomeryshire and Radnorshire. Quantitative analysis of illegitimacy ratios demonstrates that levels were significantly higher in certain, but not all, parts of Wales in the eighteenth century. This evidence is considered in relation to explanatory frameworks used in the analysis of English data, which attempt to account for rising levels through cultural changes that influenced premarital sexual behaviour, and economic opportunities created by industrialization. Welsh evidence appears to present a challenge to these understandings in two key ways: Wales was linguistically different and lacked certain cultural markers which some historians have associated with an eighteenth-century ‘sexual revolution’, and because the highest levels of illegitimacy were found in agricultural regions of Wales which experienced little or no industrial change. It is argued that Welsh illegitimacy was influenced by a combination of courtship-led marriage customs, a decline in traditional forms of social control and worsening economic circumstances which, on closer examination, appear remarkably similar to London. This analysis provides further evidence that illegitimacy in eighteenth-century Britain was a deeply complex phenomenon governed by diverse regionally specific social and economic influences. PMID:29308459

Walking, cycling and driving to work in the English and Welsh 2011 census: trends, socio-economic patterning and relevance to travel behaviour in general.

PubMed

Goodman, Anna

2013-01-01

Increasing walking and cycling, and reducing motorised transport, are health and environmental priorities. This paper examines levels and trends in the use of different commute modes in England and Wales, both overall and with respect to small-area deprivation. It also investigates whether commute modal share can serve as a proxy for travel behaviour more generally. 23.7 million adult commuters reported their usual main mode of travelling to work in the 2011 census in England and Wales; similar data were available for 1971-2001. Indices of Multiple Deprivation were used to characterise socio-economic patterning. The National Travel Survey (2002-2010) was used to examine correlations between commute modal share and modal share of total travel time. These correlations were calculated across 150 non-overlapping populations defined by region, year band and income. Among commuters in 2011, 67.1% used private motorised transport as their usual main commute mode (-1.8 percentage-point change since 2001); 17.8% used public transport (+1.8% change); 10.9% walked (-0.1% change); and 3.1% cycled (+0.1% change). Walking and, to a marginal extent, cycling were more common among those from deprived areas, but these gradients had flattened over the previous decade to the point of having essentially disappeared for cycling. In the National Travel Survey, commute modal share and total modal share were reasonably highly correlated for private motorised transport (r = 0.94), public transport (r = 0.96), walking (r = 0.88 excluding London) and cycling (r = 0.77). England and Wales remain car-dependent, but the trends are slightly more encouraging. Unlike many health behaviours, it is more common for socio-economically disadvantaged groups to commute using physically active modes. This association is, however, weakening and may soon reverse for cycling. At a population level, commute modal share provides a reasonable proxy for broader travel patterns, enhancing the value of the census

Walking, Cycling and Driving to Work in the English and Welsh 2011 Census: Trends, Socio-Economic Patterning and Relevance to Travel Behaviour in General

PubMed Central

Goodman, Anna

2013-01-01

Objectives Increasing walking and cycling, and reducing motorised transport, are health and environmental priorities. This paper examines levels and trends in the use of different commute modes in England and Wales, both overall and with respect to small-area deprivation. It also investigates whether commute modal share can serve as a proxy for travel behaviour more generally. Methods 23.7 million adult commuters reported their usual main mode of travelling to work in the 2011 census in England and Wales; similar data were available for 1971–2001. Indices of Multiple Deprivation were used to characterise socio-economic patterning. The National Travel Survey (2002–2010) was used to examine correlations between commute modal share and modal share of total travel time. These correlations were calculated across 150 non-overlapping populations defined by region, year band and income. Results Among commuters in 2011, 67.1% used private motorised transport as their usual main commute mode (−1.8 percentage-point change since 2001); 17.8% used public transport (+1.8% change); 10.9% walked (−0.1% change); and 3.1% cycled (+0.1% change). Walking and, to a marginal extent, cycling were more common among those from deprived areas, but these gradients had flattened over the previous decade to the point of having essentially disappeared for cycling. In the National Travel Survey, commute modal share and total modal share were reasonably highly correlated for private motorised transport (r = 0.94), public transport (r = 0.96), walking (r = 0.88 excluding London) and cycling (r = 0.77). Conclusions England and Wales remain car-dependent, but the trends are slightly more encouraging. Unlike many health behaviours, it is more common for socio-economically disadvantaged groups to commute using physically active modes. This association is, however, weakening and may soon reverse for cycling. At a population level, commute modal share provides a reasonable proxy

Impact on alcohol purchasing of a ban on multi-buy promotions: a quasi-experimental evaluation comparing Scotland with England and Wales.

PubMed

Nakamura, Ryota; Suhrcke, Marc; Pechey, Rachel; Morciano, Marcello; Roland, Martin; Marteau, Theresa M

2014-04-01

To evaluate the impact of the 2011 Scottish ban on multi-buy promotions of alcohol in retail stores. Difference-in-differences analysis was used to estimate the impact of the ban on the volume of alcohol purchased by Scottish households, compared with those in England and Wales, between January 2010 and June 2012. A total of 22 356 households in Scotland, England and Wales. Records of alcohol purchasing from each of four categories (beer and cider, wine, spirits and flavoured alcoholic beverages), as well as total volume of pure alcohol purchased. Controlling for general time trends and household heterogeneity, there was no significant effect of the multi-buy ban in Scotland on volume of alcohol purchased either for the whole population or for individual socio-economic groups. There was also no significant effect on those who were large pre-ban purchasers of alcohol. Most multi-buys were for beer and cider or for wine. The frequency of shopping trips involving beer and cider purchases increased by 9.2% following the ban (P < 0.01), while the number of products purchased on each trip decreased by 8.1% (P < 0.01). For wine, however, these effects were not significant. Banning multi-buy promotions for alcohol in Scotland did not reduce alcohol purchasing in the short term. Wider regulation of price promotion and price may be needed to achieve this. © 2013 The Authors. Addiction published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for the Study of Addiction.

How many people will need palliative care in 2040? Past trends, future projections and implications for services.

PubMed

Etkind, S N; Bone, A E; Gomes, B; Lovell, N; Evans, C J; Higginson, I J; Murtagh, F E M

2017-05-18

Current estimates suggest that approximately 75% of people approaching the end-of-life may benefit from palliative care. The growing numbers of older people and increasing prevalence of chronic illness in many countries mean that more people may benefit from palliative care in the future, but this has not been quantified. The present study aims to estimate future population palliative care need in two high-income countries. We used mortality statistics for England and Wales from 2006 to 2014. Building on previous diagnosis-based approaches, we calculated age- and sex-specific proportions of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses to estimate the prevalence of palliative care need in the population. We calculated annual change over the 9-year period. Using explicit assumptions about change in disease prevalence over time, and official mortality forecasts, we modelled palliative care need up to 2040. We also undertook separate projections for dementia, cancer and organ failure. By 2040, annual deaths in England and Wales are projected to rise by 25.4% (from 501,424 in 2014 to 628,659). If age- and sex-specific proportions with palliative care needs remain the same as in 2014, the number of people requiring palliative care will grow by 25.0% (from 375,398 to 469,305 people/year). However, if the upward trend observed from 2006 to 2014 continues, the increase will be of 42.4% (161,842 more people/year, total 537,240). In addition, disease-specific projections show that dementia (increase from 59,199 to 219,409 deaths/year by 2040) and cancer (increase from 143,638 to 208,636 deaths by 2040) will be the main drivers of increased need. If recent mortality trends continue, 160,000 more people in England and Wales will need palliative care by 2040. Healthcare systems must now start to adapt to the age-related growth in deaths from chronic illness, by focusing on integration and boosting of palliative care across health and social care disciplines. Countries with

Work and Leaving Home: The Experience of England and Wales, 1850-1920. Working Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schurer, K.

Data from the 1811 and 1851 census in England and Wales as well as other data from those countries in 1891 and 1921 were analyzed to investigate individuals' timing and extent of departure from the parental home. The authors found the following: (1) there was a gradual increase in the ages at which children left the parental home; (2) the pace of…

The method of trend analysis of parameters time series of gas-turbine engine state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hvozdeva, I.; Myrhorod, V.; Derenh, Y.

2017-10-01

This research substantiates an approach to interval estimation of time series trend component. The well-known methods of spectral and trend analysis are used for multidimensional data arrays. The interval estimation of trend component is proposed for the time series whose autocorrelation matrix possesses a prevailing eigenvalue. The properties of time series autocorrelation matrix are identified.

Surveillance of sexually transmitted infections in England and Wales.

PubMed

Hughes, G; Paine, T; Thomas, D

2001-05-01

Surveillance of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in England and Wales has, in the past, relied principally on aggregated statistical data submitted by all genitourinary medicine clinics to the Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, supplemented by various laboratory reporting systems. Although these systems provide comparatively robust surveillance data, they do not provide sufficient information on risk factors to target STI control and prevention programmes appropriately. Over recent years, substantial rises in STIs, the emergence of numerous outbreaks of STIs, and changes in gonococcal resistance patterns have necessitated the introduction of more sophisticated surveillance mechanisms. This article describes current STI surveillance systems in England and Wales, including new systems that have recently been introduced or are currently being developed to meet the need for enhanced STI surveillance data.

Rhetoric or Reality? Ethnic Monitoring in the "Threshold Assessment" of Teachers in England and Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Menter, Ian; Hextall, Ian; Mahony, Pat

2003-01-01

Following the 1998 Green Paper on teachers' work, the UK government introduced Threshold Assessment of teachers in England and Wales in 2000. Teachers who met the Threshold standards were rewarded with a pay rise and access to an upper pay spine. At the time ministers gave assurances that equal opportunities would be taken very seriously in the…

Applications of MIDAS regression in analysing trends in water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penev, Spiridon; Leonte, Daniela; Lazarov, Zdravetz; Mann, Rob A.

2014-04-01

We discuss novel statistical methods in analysing trends in water quality. Such analysis uses complex data sets of different classes of variables, including water quality, hydrological and meteorological. We analyse the effect of rainfall and flow on trends in water quality utilising a flexible model called Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS). This model arises because of the mixed frequency in the data collection. Typically, water quality variables are sampled fortnightly, whereas the rain data is sampled daily. The advantage of using MIDAS regression is in the flexible and parsimonious modelling of the influence of the rain and flow on trends in water quality variables. We discuss the model and its implementation on a data set from the Shoalhaven Supply System and Catchments in the state of New South Wales, Australia. Information criteria indicate that MIDAS modelling improves upon simplistic approaches that do not utilise the mixed data sampling nature of the data.

Time-series analysis of delta13C from tree rings. I. Time trends and autocorrelation.

PubMed

Monserud, R A; Marshall, J D

2001-09-01

Univariate time-series analyses were conducted on stable carbon isotope ratios obtained from tree-ring cellulose. We looked for the presence and structure of autocorrelation. Significant autocorrelation violates the statistical independence assumption and biases hypothesis tests. Its presence would indicate the existence of lagged physiological effects that persist for longer than the current year. We analyzed data from 28 trees (60-85 years old; mean = 73 years) of western white pine (Pinus monticola Dougl.), ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Laws.), and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco var. glauca) growing in northern Idaho. Material was obtained by the stem analysis method from rings laid down in the upper portion of the crown throughout each tree's life. The sampling protocol minimized variation caused by changing light regimes within each tree. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models were used to describe the autocorrelation structure over time. Three time series were analyzed for each tree: the stable carbon isotope ratio (delta(13)C); discrimination (delta); and the difference between ambient and internal CO(2) concentrations (c(a) - c(i)). The effect of converting from ring cellulose to whole-leaf tissue did not affect the analysis because it was almost completely removed by the detrending that precedes time-series analysis. A simple linear or quadratic model adequately described the time trend. The residuals from the trend had a constant mean and variance, thus ensuring stationarity, a requirement for autocorrelation analysis. The trend over time for c(a) - c(i) was particularly strong (R(2) = 0.29-0.84). Autoregressive moving average analyses of the residuals from these trends indicated that two-thirds of the individual tree series contained significant autocorrelation, whereas the remaining third were random (white noise) over time. We were unable to distinguish between individuals with and without significant autocorrelation

Traumatic brain injury in England and Wales: prospective audit of epidemiology, complications and standardised mortality.

PubMed

Lawrence, T; Helmy, A; Bouamra, O; Woodford, M; Lecky, F; Hutchinson, P J

2016-11-24

To provide a comprehensive assessment of the management of traumatic brain injury (TBI) relating to epidemiology, complications and standardised mortality across specialist units. The Trauma Audit and Research Network collects data prospectively on patients suffering trauma across England and Wales. We analysed all data collected on patients with TBI between April 2014 and June 2015. Data were collected on patients presenting to emergency departments across 187 hospitals including 26 with specialist neurosurgical services, incorporating factors previously identified in the Ps14 multivariate logistic regression (Ps14 n ) model multivariate TBI outcome prediction model. The frequency and timing of secondary transfer to neurosurgical centres was assessed. We identified 15 820 patients with TBI presenting to neurosurgical centres directly (6258), transferred from a district hospital to a neurosurgical centre (3682) and remaining in a district general hospital (5880). The commonest mechanisms of injury were falls in the elderly and road traffic collisions in the young, which were more likely to present in coma. In severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) ≤8), the median time from admission to imaging with CT scan is 0.5 hours. Median time to craniotomy from admission is 2.6 hours and median time to intracranial pressure monitoring is 3 hours. The most frequently documented complication of severe TBI is bronchopneumonia in 5% of patients. Risk-adjusted W scores derived from the Ps14 n model indicate that no neurosurgical unit fell outside the 3 SD limits on a funnel plot. We provide the first comprehensive report of the management of TBI in England and Wales, including data from all neurosurgical units. These data provide transparency and suggests equity of access to high-quality TBI management provided in England and Wales. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Developing Higher Education in South Wales: The Emergence of the Universities Heads of the Valleys Institute

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saunders, Danny; Marshall, Helen; Cowe, Francis; Payne, Robert; Rogers, Andrew

2013-01-01

This case study outlines the emergence of a large higher education partnership in a sub-region of Wales which has for many years been associated with a low skills stereotype involving unemployment, poverty and deprivation. It contextualises the difficulties and challenges of 2008--the time when the Universities Heads of the Valleys Institute…

Discourses, Decisions, Designs: "Special" Education Policy-Making in New South Wales, Scotland, Finland and Malaysia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chong, Pei Wen; Graham, Linda J.

2017-01-01

This comparative analysis investigates the influence of neo-liberal and inclusive discourses in "special" education policy-making in New South Wales, Scotland, Finland and Malaysia. The centrality of competition, selectivity and accountability in the discourses used in New South Wales and Malaysia suggests a system preference for…

Harbingers of Feminism? Gender, Cultural Capital and Education in Mid-Twentieth-Century Rural Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, Sally; Brown, Brian

2009-01-01

This paper reports the results of a small-scale narrative study of men and women who grew up in mid-twentieth-century rural Wales, and their reminiscences regarding women and education. Although the dominant image of Wales during that era is that of a male-dominated society, all of our participants remembered influential independent women and…

Detecting Land Cover Change by Trend and Seasonality of Remote Sensing Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliveira, J. C.; Epiphanio, J. N.; Mello, M. P.

2013-05-01

Natural resource managers demand knowledge of information on the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land cover change, and detection and characteristics change over time is an initial step for the understanding of the mechanism of change. The propose of this research is the use the approach BFAST (Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend) for detects trend and seasonal changes within Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series. BFAST integrates the decomposition of time series into trend, seasonal, and noise components with methods for detecting change within time series without the need to select a reference period, set a threshold, or define a change trajectory. BFAST iteratively estimates the time and number of changes, and characterizes change by its magnitude and direction. The general model is of the form Yt = Tt + St + et (t= 1,2,3,…, n) where Yt is the observed data at time t, Tt is the trend component, St is the seasonal component, and et is the remainder component. In this study was used MODIS NDVI time series datasets (MOD13Q1) over 11 years (2000 - 2010) on an intensive agricultural area in Mato Grosso - Brazil. At first it was applied a filter for noise reduction (4253H twice) over spectral curve of each MODIS pixel, and subsequently each time series was decomposed into seasonal, trend, and remainder components by BFAST. Were detected one abrupt change from a single pixel of forest and two abrupt changes on trend component to a pixel of the agricultural area. Figure 1 shows the number of phonological change with base in seasonal component for study area. This paper demonstrated the ability of the BFAST to detect long-term phenological change by analyzing time series while accounting for abrupt and gradual changes. The algorithm iteratively estimates the dates and number of changes occurring within seasonal and trend components, and characterizes changes by extracting the magnitude and direction of change. Changes occurring in the

Interrupted time-series analysis: studying trends in neurosurgery.

PubMed

Wong, Ricky H; Smieliauskas, Fabrice; Pan, I-Wen; Lam, Sandi K

2015-12-01

OBJECT Neurosurgery studies traditionally have evaluated the effects of interventions on health care outcomes by studying overall changes in measured outcomes over time. Yet, this type of linear analysis is limited due to lack of consideration of the trend's effects both pre- and postintervention and the potential for confounding influences. The aim of this study was to illustrate interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) as applied to an example in the neurosurgical literature and highlight ITSA's potential for future applications. METHODS The methods used in previous neurosurgical studies were analyzed and then compared with the methodology of ITSA. RESULTS The ITSA method was identified in the neurosurgical literature as an important technique for isolating the effect of an intervention (such as a policy change or a quality and safety initiative) on a health outcome independent of other factors driving trends in the outcome. The authors determined that ITSA allows for analysis of the intervention's immediate impact on outcome level and on subsequent trends and enables a more careful measure of the causal effects of interventions on health care outcomes. CONCLUSIONS ITSA represents a significant improvement over traditional observational study designs in quantifying the impact of an intervention. ITSA is a useful statistical procedure to understand, consider, and implement as the field of neurosurgery evolves in sophistication in big-data analytics, economics, and health services research.

Geographical variation in life expectancy at birth in England and Wales is largely explained by deprivation.

PubMed

Woods, Laura M; Rachet, Bernard; Riga, Michael; Stone, Noell; Shah, Anjali; Coleman, Michel P

2005-02-01

To describe the population mortality profile of England and Wales by deprivation and in each government office region (GOR) during 1998, and to quantify the influence of geography and deprivation in determining life expectancy. Construction of life tables describing age specific mortality rates and life expectancy at birth from death registrations and estimated population counts. Life tables were created for (a) quintiles of income deprivation based on the income domain score of the index of multiple deprivation 2000, (b) each GOR and Wales, and (c) every combination of deprivation and geography. England and Wales.PATIENTS/ PARTICIPANTS: Residents of England and Wales, 1998. Life expectancy at birth varies with deprivation quintile and is highest in the most affluent groups. The differences are mainly attributable to differences in mortality rates under 75 years of age. Regional life expectancies display a clear north-south gradient. Linear regression analysis shows that deprivation explains most of the geographical variation in life expectancy. Geographical patterns of life expectancy identified within these data for England and Wales in 1998 are mainly attributable to variations in deprivation status as defined by the IMD 2000 income domain score.

Education and Nationhood in Wales: An Historiographical Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Gareth Elwyn

2006-01-01

Throughout the centuries, a sense of national identity in Wales has manifested itself in a variety of ways--aspirations to statehood, a unique language, cultural distinctiveness, religious affiliation, sporting achievement and, most recently, political devolution. Educational institutions in myriad forms have reflected aspects of these…

Demand for Emergency Services Trends in New South Wales Years 2010-2014 (DESTINY): Age and Clinical Factors Associated with Ambulance Transportation to Emergency Departments.

PubMed

Dinh, Michael M; Muecke, Sandy; Berendsen Russell, Saartje; Chalkley, Dane; Bein, Kendall J; Muscatello, David; Nagaraj, Guruprasad; Paoloni, Richard; Ivers, Rebecca

2016-01-01

The study aimed to analyze ambulance transportations to Emergency Departments (EDs) in New South Wales (NSW) and to identify temporal changes in demographics, acuity, and clinical diagnoses. This was a retrospective analysis of a population based registry of ED presentations in New South Wales. The NSW Emergency Department data collection (EDCC) collects patient level data on presentations to designated EDs across NSW. Patients that presented to EDs by ambulance between January 2010 and December 2014 were included. Patients dead on arrival, transferred from another hospital, or planned ED presentations were excluded. A total of 10.8 million ED attendances were identified of which 2.6 million (23%) were transported to ED by ambulance. The crude rate of ambulance transportations to EDs across all ages increased by 3.0% per annum over the five years with the highest rate observed in those 85 years and over (620.5 presentations per 1,000 population). There was an increase in the proportion of category 1 and 2 (life-threatening or potentially life-threatening) cases from 18.1% to 24.0%. Demand for ambulance services appears to be driven by older patients presenting with higher acuity problems. Alternative models of acute care for elderly patients need to be planned and implemented to address these changes.

Variations in prison mental health services in England and Wales.

PubMed

Forrester, Andrew; Exworthy, Tim; Olumoroti, Olumuyiwa; Sessay, Mohammed; Parrott, Janet; Spencer, Sarah-Jane; Whyte, Sean

2013-01-01

In responding to high levels of psychiatric morbidity amongst prisoners and recognising earlier poor quality prison mental health care, prison mental health in-reach teams have been established in England and Wales over the last decade. They are mostly provided by the National Health Service (NHS), which provides the majority of UK healthcare services. Over the same period, the prison population has grown to record levels, such that prisons in England and Wales now contain almost 90,000 of the world's overall prison population of over 10 million people (roughly the size of Paris or Istanbul). This study provides an overview of mental health in-reach services in prisons in England and Wales, including variations between them, through a telephone survey of senior staff in all prisons and young offender institutions in England and Wales. 73% of prisons took part; of them 13% had no in-reach team at all (usually low security establishments) and the majority of services were run by NHS teams, usually according to a generic community mental health team (CMHT) model rather than other specialist models. Team size was unrelated to prison size. Each nurse covered around 500 prisoners, each doctor over 3700. Many provided few or no healthcare cells and 24-h psychiatric cover (including on-call cover) was uncommon. Despite developments in recent years, mental health in-reach services still fall short of community equivalence and there is wide variation in service arrangements that cannot be explained by prison size or function. The aim of community equivalence has not yet been reached in prison healthcare and a more sophisticated measure of service improvement and standardisation would now be useful to drive and monitor future development. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical analysis of strait time index and a simple model for trend and trend reversal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Kan; Jayaprakash, C.

2003-06-01

We analyze the daily closing prices of the Strait Time Index (STI) as well as the individual stocks traded in Singapore's stock market from 1988 to 2001. We find that the Hurst exponent is approximately 0.6 for both the STI and individual stocks, while the normal correlation functions show the random walk exponent of 0.5. We also investigate the conditional average of the price change in an interval of length T given the price change in the previous interval. We find strong correlations for price changes larger than a threshold value proportional to T; this indicates that there is no uniform crossover to Gaussian behavior. A simple model based on short-time trend and trend reversal is constructed. We show that the model exhibits statistical properties and market swings similar to those of the real market.

School Expenditure and School Performance: Evidence from New South Wales Schools Using a Dynamic Panel Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pugh, G.; Mangan, J.; Blackburn, V.; Radicic, D.

2015-01-01

This article estimates the effects of school expenditure on school performance in government secondary schools in New South Wales, Australia over the period 2006-2010. It uses dynamic panel analysis to exploit time series data on individual schools that only recently has become available. We find a significant but small effect of expenditure on…

Universal fractal scaling in stream chemistry and its implications for solute transport and water quality trend detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchner, James W.; Neal, Colin

2013-07-01

The chemical dynamics of lakes and streams affect their suitability as aquatic habitats and as water supplies for human needs. Because water quality is typically monitored only weekly or monthly, however, the higher-frequency dynamics of stream chemistry have remained largely invisible. To illuminate a wider spectrum of water quality dynamics, rainfall and streamflow were sampled in two headwater catchments at Plynlimon, Wales, at 7-h intervals for 1-2 y and weekly for over two decades, and were analyzed for 45 solutes spanning the periodic table from H+ to U. Here we show that in streamflow, all 45 of these solutes, including nutrients, trace elements, and toxic metals, exhibit fractal 1/fα scaling on time scales from hours to decades (α = 1.05 ± 0.15, mean ± SD). We show that this fractal scaling can arise through dispersion of random chemical inputs distributed across a catchment. These 1/f time series are non-self-averaging: monthly, yearly, or decadal averages are approximately as variable, one from the next, as individual measurements taken hours or days apart, defying naive statistical expectations. (By contrast, stream discharge itself is nonfractal, and self-averaging on time scales of months and longer.) In the solute time series, statistically significant trends arise much more frequently, on all time scales, than one would expect from conventional t statistics. However, these same trends are poor predictors of future trends-much poorer than one would expect from their calculated uncertainties. Our results illustrate how 1/f time series pose fundamental challenges to trend analysis and change detection in environmental systems.

Using exogenous variables in testing for monotonic trends in hydrologic time series

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alley, William M.

1988-01-01

One approach that has been used in performing a nonparametric test for monotonic trend in a hydrologic time series consists of a two-stage analysis. First, a regression equation is estimated for the variable being tested as a function of an exogenous variable. A nonparametric trend test such as the Kendall test is then performed on the residuals from the equation. By analogy to stagewise regression and through Monte Carlo experiments, it is demonstrated that this approach will tend to underestimate the magnitude of the trend and to result in some loss in power as a result of ignoring the interaction between the exogenous variable and time. An alternative approach, referred to as the adjusted variable Kendall test, is demonstrated to generally have increased statistical power and to provide more reliable estimates of the trend slope. In addition, the utility of including an exogenous variable in a trend test is examined under selected conditions.

Bondonic effects in group-IV honeycomb nanoribbons with Stone-Wales topological defects.

PubMed

Putz, Mihai V; Ori, Ottorino

2014-04-03

This work advances the modeling of bondonic effects on graphenic and honeycomb structures, with an original two-fold generalization: (i) by employing the fourth order path integral bondonic formalism in considering the high order derivatives of the Wiener topological potential of those 1D systems; and (ii) by modeling a class of honeycomb defective structures starting from graphene, the carbon-based reference case, and then generalizing the treatment to Si (silicene), Ge (germanene), Sn (stannene) by using the fermionic two-degenerate statistical states function in terms of electronegativity. The honeycomb nanostructures present η-sized Stone-Wales topological defects, the isomeric dislocation dipoles originally called by authors Stone-Wales wave or SWw. For these defective nanoribbons the bondonic formalism foresees a specific phase-transition whose critical behavior shows typical bondonic fast critical time and bonding energies. The quantum transition of the ideal-to-defect structural transformations is fully described by computing the caloric capacities for nanostructures triggered by η-sized topological isomerisations. Present model may be easily applied to hetero-combinations of Group-IV elements like C-Si, C-Ge, C-Sn, Si-Ge, Si-Sn, Ge-Sn.

The development of nurse-led suicide prevention training for multidisciplinary staff in a North Wales NHS Trust.

PubMed

Jones, R

2010-03-01

There are 300 deaths in Wales each year as a result of suicide. Though the rate in England and Wales has fallen in recent years, it is still the second most common cause of death in men aged 15-44 behind accidental death. The majority of those who die by suicide make contact with health professionals within a relatively short time before their death. For those with mental ill health, relationships with professionals appear particularly important; indeed negative relationships have been cited as a key factor precipitating death by suicide. This paper outlines a suicide awareness programme which aims to restate the values of empathy and relationship building in everyday interaction. It acknowledges risk factors and risk assessment tools, but more than anything strives to demonstrate the value of encouraging personal expression in patients.

Experiences of Autism Spectrum Disorder and Policing in England and Wales: Surveying Police and the Autism Community

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crane, Laura; Maras, Katie L.; Hawken, Tamsyn; Mulcahy, Sue; Memon, Amina

2016-01-01

An online survey gathered the experiences and views of 394 police officers (from England and Wales) regarding autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Just 42% of officers were satisfied with how they had worked with individuals with ASD and reasons for this varied. Although officers acknowledged the need for adjustments, organisational/time constraints…

Tackling Behaviour and Attendance Issues in Schools in Wales: Implications for Training and Professional Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reid, Ken

2011-01-01

In 2009, the Welsh Assembly Government published its Report on the review of behaviour and attendance in schools in Wales. The National Behaviour and Attendance Review (NBAR) in Wales was chaired by the author of this paper. Both the Review and the Welsh Assembly Government's response contained recommendations related to the training and…

Design of a sediment data-collection program in Kansas as affected by time trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jordan, P.R.

1985-01-01

Data collection programs need to be re-examined periodically in order to insure their usefulness, efficiency, and applicability. The possibility of time trends in sediment concentration, in particular, makes the examination with new statistical techniques desirable. After adjusting sediment concentrations for their relation to streamflow rates and by using a seasonal adaptation of Kendall 's nonparametric statistical test, time trends of flow-adjusted concentrations were detected for 11 of the 38 sediment records tested that were not affected by large reservoirs. Ten of the 11 trends were toward smaller concentrations; only 1 was toward larger concentrations. Of the apparent trends that were not statistically significant (0.05 level) using data available, nearly all were toward smaller concentrations. Because the reason for the lack of statistical significance of an apparent trend may be inadequacy of data rather than absence of trend and because of the prevalence of apparent trends in one direction, the assumption was made that a time trend may be present at any station. This assumption can significantly affect the design of a sediment data collection program. Sudden decreases (step trends) in flow-adjusted sediment concentrations were found at all stations that were short distances downstream from large reservoirs and that had adequate data for a seasonal adaptation of Wilcoxon 's nonparametric statistical test. Examination of sediment records in the 1984 data collection program of the Kansas Water Office indicated 13 stations that can be discontinued temporarily because data are now adequate. Data collection could be resumed in 1992 when new data may be needed because of possible time trends. New data are needed at eight previously operated stations where existing data may be inadequate or misleading because of time trends. Operational changes may be needed at some stations, such as hiring contract observers or installing automatic pumping samplers. Implementing

Factors influencing the career aspirations and preferred modes of working in recent dental graduates in Wales.

PubMed

Davies, Luke; Thomas, David R; Sandham, Sandra J; Treasure, Elizabeth T; Chestnutt, Ivor G

2008-10-01

In England and Wales, National Health Service (NHS) primary dental care services are now commissioned on a local basis. In planning for the future, it is important that commissioning authorities have a clear understanding of the perspectives of recent dental graduates: vocational dental practitioners (VDPs). This study investigated the career aspirations and preferred modes of working of VDPs in Wales. Data were collected via a postal questionnaire, comprising 37 closed and open questions, mailed to all 59 VDPs in Wales. A total of 53 (90%) VDPs participated, of whom 47 saw their future in general dental practice: 5, 35, and 7 indicating a preference to work in the NHS, mixed (NHS and private), and private sector, respectively. None selected the Community Dental Service as their preferred vocation. More than half of all respondents intended to undertake a postgraduate qualification within the next five years and 22 wished to specialise. Of the 53 VDPs, 44 were concerned that lack of NHS contracts would limit where they could practise, and agreed that family and other social commitments were a significant influence on choice of practice location. Access to high-quality premises and continuing professional development were agreed as important by 41 VDPs. A majority (37) agreed that private dentistry was an attractive alternative to NHS dentistry. Of the respondents, 38 (22 females, 16 males) expected to work part-time at some point in the future and 14 said they would consider a career outside dentistry. Only nine VDPs agreed that they would be happy working in a single-handed practice and even fewer (six) indicated they would be happy working for a corporate body. Numerous factors impact on the career aspirations of VDPs. These factors have been quantified in this study, and healthcare-commissioning bodies need to be aware of them when planning future dental care provision in Wales.

Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

2014-02-01

The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

Utilizing Electronic Medical Records to Discover Changing Trends of Medical Behaviors Over Time*

PubMed Central

Yin, Liangying; Dong, Wei; He, Chunhua; Duan, Huilong

2017-01-01

Summary Objectives Medical behaviors are playing significant roles in the delivery of high quality and cost-effective health services. Timely discovery of changing frequencies of medical behaviors is beneficial for the improvement of health services. The main objective of this work is to discover the changing trends of medical behaviors over time. Methods This study proposes a two-steps approach to detect essential changing patterns of medical behaviors from Electronic Medical Records (EMRs). In detail, a probabilistic topic model, i.e., Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), is firstly applied to disclose yearly treatment patterns in regard to the risk stratification of patients from a large volume of EMRs. After that, the changing trends by comparing essential/critical medical behaviors in a specific time period are detected and analyzed, including changes of significant patient features with their values, and changes of critical treatment interventions with their occurring time stamps. Results We verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach on a clinical dataset containing 12,152 patient cases with a time range of 10 years. Totally, 135 patients features and 234 treatment interventions in three treatment patterns were selected to detect their changing trends. In particular, evolving trends of yearly occurring probabilities of the selected medical behaviors were categorized into six content changing patterns (i.e, 112 growing, 123 declining, 43 up-down, 16 down-up, 35 steady, and 40 jumping), using the proposed approach. Besides, changing trends of execution time of treatment interventions were classified into three occurring time changing patterns (i.e., 175 early-implemented, 50 steady-implemented and 9 delay-implemented). Conclusions Experimental results show that our approach has an ability to utilize EMRs to discover essential evolving trends of medical behaviors, and thus provide significant potential to be further explored for health services redesign and

Utilizing Electronic Medical Records to Discover Changing Trends of Medical Behaviors Over Time.

PubMed

Yin, Liangying; Huang, Zhengxing; Dong, Wei; He, Chunhua; Duan, Huilong

2017-05-05

Medical behaviors are playing significant roles in the delivery of high quality and cost-effective health services. Timely discovery of changing frequencies of medical behaviors is beneficial for the improvement of health services. The main objective of this work is to discover the changing trends of medical behaviors over time. This study proposes a two-steps approach to detect essential changing patterns of medical behaviors from Electronic Medical Records (EMRs). In detail, a probabilistic topic model, i.e., Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), is firstly applied to disclose yearly treatment patterns in regard to the risk stratification of patients from a large volume of EMRs. After that, the changing trends by comparing essential/critical medical behaviors in a specific time period are detected and analyzed, including changes of significant patient features with their values, and changes of critical treatment interventions with their occurring time stamps. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach on a clinical dataset containing 12,152 patient cases with a time range of 10 years. Totally, 135 patients features and 234 treatment interventions in three treatment patterns were selected to detect their changing trends. In particular, evolving trends of yearly occurring probabilities of the selected medical behaviors were categorized into six content changing patterns (i.e, 112 growing, 123 declining, 43 up-down, 16 down-up, 35 steady, and 40 jumping), using the proposed approach. Besides, changing trends of execution time of treatment interventions were classified into three occurring time changing patterns (i.e., 175 early-implemented, 50 steady-implemented and 9 delay-implemented). Experimental results show that our approach has an ability to utilize EMRs to discover essential evolving trends of medical behaviors, and thus provide significant potential to be further explored for health services redesign and improvement.

Understanding the driving forces behind the losses of soil carbon across England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellamy, Patricia

2010-05-01

More than twice as much carbon is held in soils as in vegetation or the atmosphere, and changes in soil carbon content can have a large effect on the global carbon budget. The possibility that climate change is being reinforced by increased carbon dioxide emissions from soils owing to rising temperature is the subject of a continuing debate. But evidence for the suggested feedback mechanism has to date come solely from small-scale laboratory and field experiments and modelling studies. Here we use data from the National Soil Inventory of England and Wales obtained between 1978 and 2003 to show that carbon was lost from soils across England and Wales over the survey period at a mean rate of 0.6% yr-1 (relative to the existing soil carbon content). We find that the relative rate of carbon loss increased with soil carbon content and was more than 2% yr-1 in soils with carbon contents greater than 100 g kg-1. The relationship between rate of carbon loss and carbon content is irrespective of land use, suggesting a link to climate change. Our findings indicate that losses of soil carbon in England and Wales—and by inference in other temperate regions—are likely to have been offsetting absorption of carbon by terrestrial sinks. To investigate the possible driving forces of the measured losses of soil carbon we applied a simple model of soil carbon turnover to evaluate alternative explanations for the observed trends. We find that neither changes in decomposition resulting from the effects of climate change on soil temperature and moisture, nor changes in carbon input from vegetation, could account on their own for the overall trends. Of other explanations, results indicate that past changes in land use and management were probably dominant. The climate change signal, such as it is, is masked by these other changes. A more sophisticated model of carbon change (DAYCENT) has now been applied across the whole range of soils in England and Wales. This model has been

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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-30

... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Foreign-Trade Zones Board [S-32-2013] Approval of Subzone Status; Teva Pharmaceuticals USA, Inc.; North Wales, Chalfont, Kutztown and Sellersville, Pennsylvania On March 18, 2013, the... activation limit of FTZ 35, on behalf of Teva Pharmaceuticals USA, Inc., in North Wales, Chalfont, Kutztown...

A Comparative Analysis of Selected Demographic Parameters for Evaluating Parity of Women in Poland, Spain, England and Wales for the Period 1996-2011.

PubMed

Strama, Agnieszka; Heimrath, Jerzy; Dudek, Krzysztof

2016-01-01

The Central Statistical Offices in Europe indicate an increase of women's parity age and extramarital births. The aim of this study was to analyze the chosen demographics of parity in European countries of Poland, Spain, England and Wales in 1996-2011. Statistical packet: women's average age at the time of their first and subsequent births, newborns' average body weight in relation to the age of mother; live marital and extramarital births. The age of mothers giving birth to their first and subsequent children in 1998-2011 in all of the researched countries is presented, and next compared in 1999, 2005 and 2011. An analysis of the births of children in marital and extramarital relationships as well as the body weight of live newborns is presented in detail in 1996-2006, and next in 6 year periods: 1999, 2005 and 2011. The average age of the mother giving birth to her first baby in 1996-2011 oscillates around: 26-27 years in England and Wales, 28-30 years in Spain and 23-26 years in Poland. In Poland, the highest average children's body weight, 3394 g, was achieved by children born by mothers at the age of 25-29. In Spain, however, at the mothers' age of 20-24, it was 3317 g. In England and Wales, at 30-34 years, it was 3262 g. The number of extramarital births in comparison to marital births is increasing. England and Wales has the lowest percentage of marital births, whereas Poland, the highest. In Spain, England and Wales we can observe an increase of extramarital births, while in Poland this number is stable at around 21.3%. The age of women having their first baby, the parity of later children, and extramarital births are increasing. In Poland, infant body weight is significantly bigger than in Spain, England and Wales.

Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947-1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation.

PubMed

Smallman-Raynor, M R; Cliff, A D

2014-03-01

The abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947-1957, was associated with a profound change in the spatial dynamics of the disease. Drawing on the complete record of poliomyelitis notifications in England and Wales, we use a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis (swash-backwash model) to evaluate the geographical rate of disease propagation in successive poliomyelitis seasons, 1940-1964. Comparisons with earlier and later time periods show that the period of heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity corresponded with a sudden and pronounced increase in the spatial rate of disease propagation. This change was observed for both urban and rural areas and points to an abrupt enhancement in the propensity for the geographical spread of polioviruses. Competing theories of the epidemic emergence of poliomyelitis in England and Wales should be assessed in the light of this evidence.

First-time blood donors: demographic trends.

PubMed

Wu, Y; Glynn, S A; Schreiber, G B; Wright, D J; Lo, A; Murphy, E L; Kleinman, S H; Garratty, G

2001-03-01

With changing demographics of the United States population and the continuous need to recruit new donors, it is important to monitor the demographic profile of first-time donors and to evaluate changes in the donor pool to improve recruitment targeting. First-time whole blood (n = 901,862) donors at five United States blood centers between 1991 and 1996 were analyzed. The total number of first-time donors appears to be decreasing. Over the 6-year period, there was an overall increase in the proportion of Hispanic and other minority first-time donors and a concurrent decrease in the proportion of white donors at Retrovirus Epidemiology Donor Study centers. Other variables, including age, sex, and education, did not show a consistent trend. The demographic profile of first-time donors is changing. These data highlight the importance for blood centers to continuously monitor the donor population. A better understanding of the donor population may help blood centers adjust their donor outreach, recruitment, and retention programs. New recruitment efforts appear needed to counter general apathy toward donating blood, and minority groups appear to be receptive to becoming blood donors.

Suicide and drought in New South Wales, Australia, 1970–2007

PubMed Central

Hanigan, Ivan C.; Butler, Colin D.; Kokic, Philip N.; Hutchinson, Michael F.

2012-01-01

There is concern in Australia that droughts substantially increase the incidence of suicide in rural populations, particularly among male farmers and their families. We investigated this possibility for the state of New South Wales (NSW), Australia between 1970 and 2007, analyzing data on suicides with a previously established climatic drought index. Using a generalized additive model that controlled for season, region, and long-term suicide trends, we found an increased relative risk of suicide of 15% (95% confidence interval, 8%–22%) for rural males aged 30–49 y when the drought index rose from the first quartile to the third quartile. In contrast, the risk of suicide for rural females aged >30 y declined with increased values of the drought index. We also observed an increased risk of suicide in spring and early summer. In addition there was a smaller association during unusually warm months at any time of year. The spring suicide increase is well documented in nontropical locations, although its cause is unknown. The possible increased risk of suicide during drought in rural Australia warrants public health focus and concern, as does the annual, predictable increase seen each spring and early summer. Suicide is a complex phenomenon with many interacting social, environmental, and biological causal factors. The relationship between drought and suicide is best understood using a holistic framework. Climate change projections suggest increased frequency and severity of droughts in NSW, accompanied and exacerbated by rising temperatures. Elucidating the relationships between drought and mental health will help facilitate adaptation to climate change. PMID:22891347

Problems with the Fraser report Chapter 1: Pitfalls in BMI time trend analysis.

PubMed

Lo, Ernest

2014-11-05

The first chapter of the Fraser report "Obesity in Canada: Overstated Problems, Misguided Policy Solutions" presents a flawed and misleading analysis of BMI time trends. The objective of this commentary is to provide a tutorial on BMI time trend analysis through the examination of these flaws. Three issues are discussed: 1. Spotting regions of confidence interval overlap is a statistically flawed method of assessing trend; regression methods which measure the behaviour of the data as a whole are preferred. 2. Temporal stability in overweight (25≤BMI<30) prevalence must be interpreted in the context of the underlying population BMI distribution. 3. BMI is considered reliable for tracking population-level weight trends due to its high correlation with body fat percentage. BMI-defined obesity prevalence represents a conservative underestimate of the population at risk. The findings of the Fraser report Chapter 1 are either refuted or substantially mitigated once the above issues are accounted for, and we do not find that the 'Canadian situation largely lacks a disconcerting or negative trend', as claimed. It is hoped that this commentary will help guide public health professionals who need to interpret, or wish to perform their own, time trend analyses of BMI.

A national-scale assessment of micro-organic contaminants in groundwater of England and Wales.

PubMed

Manamsa, Katya; Crane, Emily; Stuart, Marianne; Talbot, John; Lapworth, Dan; Hart, Alwyn

2016-10-15

A large variety of micro-organic (MO) compounds is used in huge quantities for a range of purposes (e.g. manufacturing, food production, healthcare) and is now being frequently detected in the aquatic environment. Interest in the occurrence of MO contaminants in the terrestrial and aquatic environments continues to grow, as well as in their environmental fate and potential toxicity. However, the contamination of groundwater resources by MOs has a limited evidence base compared to other freshwater resources. Of particular concern are newly 'emerging contaminants' such as pharmaceuticals and lifestyle compounds, particularly those with potential endocrine disrupting properties. While groundwater often has a high degree of protection from pollution due to physical, chemical and biological attenuation processes in the subsurface compared to surface aquatic environments, trace concentrations of a large range of compounds are still detected in groundwater and in some cases may persist for decades due to the long residence times of groundwater systems. This study provides the first national-scale assessment of micro-organic compounds in groundwater in England and Wales. A large set of monitoring data was analysed to determine the relative occurrence and detected concentrations of different groups of compounds and to determine relationships with land-use, aquifer type and groundwater vulnerability. MOs detected including emerging compounds such as caffeine, DEET, bisphenol A, anti-microbial agents and pharmaceuticals as well as a range of legacy contaminants including chlorinated solvents and THMs, petroleum hydrocarbons, pesticides and other industrial compounds. There are clear differences in MOs between land-use types, particularly for urban-industrial and natural land-use. Temporal trends of MO occurrence are assessed but establishing long-term trends is not yet possible. Copyright © 2016 British Geological Survey, NERC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Paralytic poliomyelitis in England & Wales, 1970-84.

PubMed Central

Begg, N. T.; Chamberlain, R.; Roebuck, M.

1987-01-01

In 1962 the Public Health Laboratory Service (PHLS) became responsible for the Poliomyelitis Surveillance Scheme for England and Wales, which since 1970 has included the World Health Organisation (WHO) enquiry into Acute Persisting Spinal Paralysis. All the records have been kept, including those of patients who were later considered not to have had poliomyelitis. This paper reviews the cases between 1970-84 of patients normally resident in England and Wales, where the clinical features of the illness were considered by the clinician in charge to be those of poliomyelitis and in which either poliovirus was isolated or there was serological evidence of recent infection. Seventy cases met these criteria. Two patients died. A wild strain of poliovirus was isolated in 19 cases; a vaccine-like strain in 27; an intermediate strain in 5; and in 19 cases the strain was not known or there was no isolate. Eleven patients had a history of overseas travel; 17 had been vaccinated recently; and 12 had been in contact with a recent vaccine. In the remaining 30 cases, the source of the infection was not found. Other details, including the age distribution, vaccination history and the laboratory findings are discussed. PMID:3609178

Effect of 7 July 2005 terrorist attacks in London on suicide in England and Wales.

PubMed

Salib, Emad; Cortina-Borja, Mario

2009-01-01

A reduction in suicide in England and Wales has been reported after the attacks of 11 September 2001 in the USA. It may be plausible therefore to expect a much greater impact on suicide in the UK in response to the events of 7 July 2005, caused by the first suicide terrorist attack by Islamic extremists on British soil. To examine the effect of the 7 July 2005 terrorist attacks in London on suicide rates in England and Wales. Analysis of number of suicide (ICD-10 codes X60-X84) and undetermined injury deaths (ICD-10 codes Y10-Y34) reported in England and Wales in the 12 weeks before and after 7 July 2005. We used Shewhart Control Charts based on Poisson rates to explore adjusted daily and weekly suicide rates and rate differences with respect to 7 July 2005. A brief but significant reduction in daily suicide rate was observed a few days after the terrorist attack in London on 7 July 2005. Further reduction was also observed on the 21 July 2005, coinciding with the second wave of attacks. No similar reduction in suicide was seen during the same period in the previous 4 years. Poisson regression models with indicator variables for each day in July 2005 revealed a reduction of 40% of the expected daily rate for these 2 days only. We found no evidence of any longer-term effect on suicide. The study findings are contrary to our expectation and only weakly support Durkheim's theory that periods of national threat lower the suicide rate through the impact on social cohesion. It is possible that previous experience of IRA terrorism in the UK may have limited the effect of the 7 July 2005 attacks on suicide in England and Wales. The shock value of suicide terrorism and its psychological potency appear to diminish over time as the tactic becomes overused.

Teacher Assessment in Wales--The TAPS Cymru Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Bethan; Coakley, Ruth; Fenn, Lisa; Earle, Sarah; Davies, Dan

2018-01-01

Making accurate, manageable assessments of children's scientific understanding, skills and progress is one of the biggest challenges facing primary teachers. In Wales, where Statutory Assessment Tests (SATs) at age 11 were phased out in 2005, teacher assessment has been the only source of pupil attainment data in science for a much longer period…

Potential for cadaveric organ retrieval in New South Wales.

PubMed Central

Hibberd, A. D.; Pearson, I. Y.; McCosker, C. J.; Chapman, J. R.; Macdonald, G. J.; Thompson, J. F.; O'Connell, D. L.; Mohacsi, P. J.; McLoughlin, M. P.; Spratt, P. M.

1992-01-01

OBJECTIVES--To measure the potential for cadaver organ retrieval in New South Wales and to determine the reasons for potential donors failing to become actual donors. DESIGN--Prospective audit of all patients dying in five hospitals in New South Wales between 1 December 1989 and 30 November 1990; quality assurance of the data by independent medical specialist and if disagreement by study committee. PATIENTS--2879 patients (100% of all deaths) yielding 364 patients with coma and 181 potential donors. OUTCOME MEASURES--Realistic medically suitable potential donor rate, missed potential donor rate, rate of potential donors with permission refused, donor rate, reasons for realistic medically suitable potential donors failing to become actual donors. RESULTS--2879 deaths yielded 73 medically suitable potential donors, resulting in 19 actual donors, 30 missed potential donors, 19 potential donors with permission refused, and five in whom adequate resuscitation failed. The most common reason for a potential donor failing to become an actual donor was a decision by the senior medical practitioner to withdraw or not to institute ventilatory or haemodynamic support (26/73). The second major obstacle was refusal of permission by the next of kin (17/73). Assuming that the potential donor rate was that implied by the observed donor rate (13/million population/year) the projected missed potential donor rate was 9/million population/year (95% confidence interval 4 to 15) and the projected rate of potential donors with permission refused was 13/million population/year (95% confidence interval 5 to 22). Assuming that the rate of potential donors in the study hospitals was the same as in the other New South Wales hospitals, the projected donor rate for New South Wales was 18/million population/year (10 to 26); the projected missed potential donor rate was 15/million population/year (7 to 23); and the projected rate of potential donors with permission refused was 18/million

Potential for cadaveric organ retrieval in New South Wales.

PubMed

Hibberd, A D; Pearson, I Y; McCosker, C J; Chapman, J R; Macdonald, G J; Thompson, J F; O'Connell, D L; Mohacsi, P J; McLoughlin, M P; Spratt, P M

1992-05-23

To measure the potential for cadaver organ retrieval in New South Wales and to determine the reasons for potential donors failing to become actual donors. Prospective audit of all patients dying in five hospitals in New South Wales between 1 December 1989 and 30 November 1990; quality assurance of the data by independent medical specialist and if disagreement by study committee. 2879 patients (100% of all deaths) yielding 364 patients with coma and 181 potential donors. Realistic medically suitable potential donor rate, missed potential donor rate, rate of potential donors with permission refused, donor rate, reasons for realistic medically suitable potential donors failing to become actual donors. 2879 deaths yielded 73 medically suitable potential donors, resulting in 19 actual donors, 30 missed potential donors, 19 potential donors with permission refused, and five in whom adequate resuscitation failed. The most common reason for a potential donor failing to become an actual donor was a decision by the senior medical practitioner to withdraw or not to institute ventilatory or haemodynamic support (26/73). The second major obstacle was refusal of permission by the next of kin (17/73). Assuming that the potential donor rate was that implied by the observed donor rate (13/million population/year) the projected missed potential donor rate was 9/million population/year (95% confidence interval 4 to 15) and the projected rate of potential donors with permission refused was 13/million population/year (95% confidence interval 5 to 22). Assuming that the rate of potential donors in the study hospitals was the same as in the other New South Wales hospitals, the projected donor rate for New South Wales was 18/million population/year (10 to 26); the projected missed potential donor rate was 15/million population/year (7 to 23); and the projected rate of potential donors with permission refused was 18/million population/year (10 to 27). The donor rate could be increased 70

The perceptions of older people in Wales about service provision.

PubMed

Morgan, Gareth; Mitchell, Clive; Gallacher, John

2011-01-01

The 'Age Well Feel Good' programme is a cohort study of older people in Wales. There is a gap in knowledge on how older people in Wales perceive health and social care services. Research is necessary to help address this gap and to provide an evidence base that informs policy making and service delivery. A representative sample of 15 000 men and women aged 50 years and over, living in Cardiff, the Welsh capital, were invited to participate in a web-based study of successful ageing. A wide range of data were collected in the study. These included psychological and cognitive assessments, self-reported health, financial status and deprivation measures. Based on over 500 responses, information on health and social care service perceptions was analysed. Overall, the perception of service availability was rated as good, yet there was widespread dissatisfaction. Furthermore, only 14% of older people were aware of a major health and social care programme in Wales, the National Service Framework for Older People. The main observation is the difference between service availability and satisfaction that views are sought. In the main, health service availability is good, yet there is widespread dissatisfaction. This raises some questions about the services provided. The evidence provided in this article is a further contribution to the policy-making process. Further work is needed.

The introduction of mentorship to Project 2000 in Wales.

PubMed

Neary, M; Phillips, R; Davies, B

1996-03-13

This study focused upon the introduction of mentors in the Common Foundation Programme (CFP) of Project 2000 (UKCC 1986) in Wales. It was commissioned by the Department of Health Research and Development Division on behalf of the Welsh Office Nursing Division. The study was policy oriented and its purpose was to inform future policy decision making through an analysis of the implementation of current policies for pre-registration education. The full title of our research project, 'The practitioner teacher: a study in the introduction of mentors in the pre-registration nurse education programme', implied that a clinically-based nurse practitioner with a designated teaching remit, fulfills a particular role (that of mentor) in the pre-registration nurse education programme. It was the nature, scope and impact of this mentor role during the initial implementation period of the CFP of Project 2000 in Wales to which this study addressed itself.

Total ozone trend significance from space time variability of daily Dobson data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilcox, R. W.

1981-01-01

Estimates of standard errors of total ozone time and area means, as derived from ozone's natural temporal and spatial variability and autocorrelation in middle latitudes determined from daily Dobson data are presented. Assessing the significance of apparent total ozone trends is equivalent to assessing the standard error of the means. Standard errors of time averages depend on the temporal variability and correlation of the averaged parameter. Trend detectability is discussed, both for the present network and for satellite measurements.

Carbon losses from all soils across England and Wales 1978-2003.

PubMed

Bellamy, Pat H; Loveland, Peter J; Bradley, R Ian; Lark, R Murray; Kirk, Guy J D

2005-09-08

More than twice as much carbon is held in soils as in vegetation or the atmosphere, and changes in soil carbon content can have a large effect on the global carbon budget. The possibility that climate change is being reinforced by increased carbon dioxide emissions from soils owing to rising temperature is the subject of a continuing debate. But evidence for the suggested feedback mechanism has to date come solely from small-scale laboratory and field experiments and modelling studies. Here we use data from the National Soil Inventory of England and Wales obtained between 1978 and 2003 to show that carbon was lost from soils across England and Wales over the survey period at a mean rate of 0.6% yr(-1) (relative to the existing soil carbon content). We find that the relative rate of carbon loss increased with soil carbon content and was more than 2% yr(-1) in soils with carbon contents greater than 100 g kg(-1). The relationship between rate of carbon loss and carbon content is irrespective of land use, suggesting a link to climate change. Our findings indicate that losses of soil carbon in England and Wales--and by inference in other temperate regions-are likely to have been offsetting absorption of carbon by terrestrial sinks.

Time Trend Analysis of Oral Cancer in Iran from 2005 to 2010.

PubMed

Iranfar, Khosro; Mokhayeri, Yaser; Mohammadi, Gohar

2016-01-01

There is a considerable lack of understanding of oral cancer incidence, especially its time trend in Iran. In this study, the authors aimed to analyze time trend of oral cancer incidence with a focus on differences by gender in a period of six years - from 2005 to 2010. Both population-based cancer registry and national cancer registry (NCR) data based on pathologic reports from 2005 to 2010 were obtained from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME). Population data were also received from Statistical Centre of Iran. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) based on the World Standard Population were then calculated. Finally, Negative Binomial regression was run for time trend analysis. The maximum ASR for males was calculated as 2.5 per 100,000 person-years in 2008 and the minimum was observed as 1.9 per 100,000 person-years in 2005 and 2006. Meanwhile, the maximum ASR for females was estimated as 1.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2009 and the minimum was calculated as 1.6 per 100,000 person-years in 2005 and 2006. Additionally, in females, incidence risk ratio (IRR) did not show a clear decreasing or increasing trend during the six years. Nevertheless, in males an increasing trend was observed. The maximum IRR adjusted for age group and province, for females was reported in 2009 (IRR=1.05 95% CI: 0.90-1.23), and for males was estimated in 2010 (IRR=1/2 95% CI: 1.04 - 1.38). Our findings highlight disparities between oral cancer incidence trends in males and females over the six years from 2005 to 2010.

Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

2017-04-01

Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological

Non-target time trend screening: a data reduction strategy for detecting emerging contaminants in biological samples.

PubMed

Plassmann, Merle M; Tengstrand, Erik; Åberg, K Magnus; Benskin, Jonathan P

2016-06-01

Non-targeted mass spectrometry-based approaches for detecting novel xenobiotics in biological samples are hampered by the occurrence of naturally fluctuating endogenous substances, which are difficult to distinguish from environmental contaminants. Here, we investigate a data reduction strategy for datasets derived from a biological time series. The objective is to flag reoccurring peaks in the time series based on increasing peak intensities, thereby reducing peak lists to only those which may be associated with emerging bioaccumulative contaminants. As a result, compounds with increasing concentrations are flagged while compounds displaying random, decreasing, or steady-state time trends are removed. As an initial proof of concept, we created artificial time trends by fortifying human whole blood samples with isotopically labelled standards. Different scenarios were investigated: eight model compounds had a continuously increasing trend in the last two to nine time points, and four model compounds had a trend that reached steady state after an initial increase. Each time series was investigated at three fortification levels and one unfortified series. Following extraction, analysis by ultra performance liquid chromatography high-resolution mass spectrometry, and data processing, a total of 21,700 aligned peaks were obtained. Peaks displaying an increasing trend were filtered from randomly fluctuating peaks using time trend ratios and Spearman's rank correlation coefficients. The first approach was successful in flagging model compounds spiked at only two to three time points, while the latter approach resulted in all model compounds ranking in the top 11 % of the peak lists. Compared to initial peak lists, a combination of both approaches reduced the size of datasets by 80-85 %. Overall, non-target time trend screening represents a promising data reduction strategy for identifying emerging bioaccumulative contaminants in biological samples. Graphical abstract

Teacher Demand: Crisis What Crisis?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

See, Beng Huat; Gorard, Stephen; White, Patrick

2004-01-01

This paper is based on two studies of teacher recruitment and retention commissioned by the General Teaching Council of Wales and the ESRC. Using official statistics from a variety of secondary sources, it shows trends over time in teacher numbers in England and Wales, and examines teacher vacancies, pupil-teacher ratios and teacher wastage. It…

Risk factors for ciprofloxacin-resistant Campylobacter infection in Wales.

PubMed

Evans, Meirion R; Northey, Gemma; Sarvotham, Tinnu S; Hopkins, A Lynne; Rigby, Christine J; Thomas, Daniel Rh

2009-08-01

To identify risk factors for ciprofloxacin resistance in both travel-related and domestically acquired Campylobacter infection. Case-comparison study of patients with ciprofloxacin-resistant and ciprofloxacin-susceptible Campylobacter infection conducted in Wales during 2003 and 2004. Foreign travel was the major risk factor for ciprofloxacin-resistant infection [adjusted odds ratio (adjOR) 24.0, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 12.6-45.9]. Among travellers, case patients were five times more likely to drink still bottled water (adjOR 4.7, 95% CI 1.0-21.7), whilst among non-travellers, case patients were three times more likely to drink sparkling bottled water (adjOR 3.3, 95% CI 1.5-7.4). There was no increased risk associated with eating poultry or prior quinolone use. Foreign travel remains the most important risk factor for ciprofloxacin-resistant Campylobacter infection. The possible association of both domestic- and travel-related ciprofloxacin-resistant Campylobacter infection with bottled water needs to be further explored.

Gender, Time and Inequality: Trends in Women's and Men's Paid Work, Unpaid Work and Free Time

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sayer, Liana C.

2005-01-01

This analysis uses nationally representative time diary data from 1965, 1975 and 1998 to examine trends and gender differences in time use. Women continue to do more household labor than men; however, men have substantially increased time in core household activities such as cooking, cleaning and daily child care. Nonetheless, a 30-minute-per-day…

Time trends in absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in northern Sweden.

PubMed

Szilcz, Máté; Mosquera, Paola A; Sebastián, Miguel San; Gustafsson, Per E

2018-02-01

The aim was to investigate the time trends in educational, occupational, and income-related inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in 2006, 2010, and 2014 in northern Swedish women and men. This study was based on data obtained from the repeated cross-sectional Health on Equal Terms survey of 2006, 2010, and 2014. The analytical sample consisted of 20,667 (2006), 31,787 (2010), and 21,613 (2014) individuals, aged 16-84. Logistic regressions were used to model the probability of physical inactivity given a set of explanatory variables. Slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) were used as summary measures of the social gradient in physical inactivity. The linear trend in inequalities and difference between gender and years were estimated by interaction analyses. The year 2010 displayed the highest physical inactivity inequalities for all socioeconomic position indicators, but educational and occupational inequalities decreased in 2014. However, significant positive linear trends were found in absolute and relative income inequalities. Moreover, women had significantly higher RII of education in physical inactivity in 2014 and significantly higher SII and RII of income in physical inactivity in 2010, than did men in the same years. The recent reduction in educational and occupational inequalities following the high inequalities around the time of the great recession in 2010 suggests that the current policies might be fairly effective. However, to eventually alleviate inequities in physical inactivity, the focus of the researchers and policymakers should be directed toward the widening trends of income inequalities in physical inactivity.

Trends in Spouses’ Shared Time in the United States, 1965–2012

PubMed Central

Genadek, Katie R.; Flood, Sarah M.; Roman, Joan Garcia

2016-01-01

Despite major demographic changes over the past 50 years and strong evidence that time spent with a spouse is important for marriages, we know very little about how time with a spouse has changed—or not—in the United States. Using time diary data from 1965–2012, we examine trends in couples’ shared time in the United States during a period of major changes in American marriages and families. We find that couples without children spent more total time together and time alone together n 2012 than they did in 1965, with total time and time alone together both peaking in 1975. For parents, time spent together increased between 1965 and 2012, most dramatically for time spent with a spouse and children. Decomposition analyses show that changes in behavior rather than changing demographics explain these trends, and we find that the increases in couples’ shared time are primarily concentrated in leisure activities. PMID:27730493

The atmosphere in England and Wales: an environmental management review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weatherley, N. S.; Timmis, R. J.

Air pollution in England and Wales is reviewed to identify priorities for management and research. The main human drivers of emissions are the production and consumption of energy and materials, disposal of waste, transport and land use. Pollutants are assigned to seven types: (i) nuisance (e.g. odour, noise), (ii) toxic, (iii) acidifying/eutrophying, (iv) photochemical oxidant precursors, (v) radionuclides, (vi) stratospheric ozone depleting substances and (vii) greenhouse gases. Dominant trends in activity and emissions are highlighted. New technologies and fuels are partially decoupling emissions from activity in power generation, industry and transport, but the gains are being offset by growth in demand and output in all major sectors. The evidence for impacts on human health, the atmosphere and other environmental systems is discussed. Priorities for management are climate change, ground-level ozone, acidification and eutrophication by nitrogen, urban air quality and nuisance pollution. Management responses require greater foresight, technological improvements and new instruments to control polluting activities. More scientific information is needed on the impacts on human health, quality of life and ecosystems, and on the links between different types of pollution. The policy challenges include generating energy sustainably, reducing transport impacts, devising effective economic instruments, improving societal awareness and contributing to cleaner global development.

Time trends of US hospitalization for esophageal disease.

PubMed

Sonnenberg, Amnon

2014-09-01

The occurrence of reflux disease seems to be rising in the United States. The aim of the present study was to follow the time trends of hospitalization for gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and other esophageal disease during the past 4 decades. US hospital utilization data were available for individual years from 1970 to 2010 through the National Hospital Discharge Survey. Esophageal diagnoses were stratified by their ninth revision of the International Classification of Diseases codes. Annual hospitalizations were expressed as rates per 100,000 living US population. GERD was by far the most common esophageal disorder resulting in hospitalization. However, in only 5% of instances did GERD-related diagnoses constitute the primary cause of hospitalization. Between 1970 and 2010 the rates of GERD-related hospitalizations increased in an exponential manner almost 10-fold. This rise affected both sex and all age groups alike. A 3-fold rise was noted in hospitalizations for esophageal adenocarcinoma. Other esophageal diagnoses, such as achalasia, dyskinesia, or stricture were characterized by falling or stable trends. US hospitalization data show a continued exponential rise in the occurrence of GERD without any signs of leveling off. These trends are likely to represent ongoing changes in the underlying incidence and prevalence of the disease.

Impact of hospital proportion and volume on primary percutaneous coronary intervention performance in England and Wales.

PubMed

West, Robert M; Cattle, Brian A; Bouyssie, Marianne; Squire, Iain; de Belder, Mark; Fox, Keith A A; Boyle, Roger; McLenachan, Jim M; Batin, Philip D; Greenwood, Darren C; Gale, Chris P

2011-03-01

To quantify the determinants of primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) performance in England and Wales between 2004 and 2007. All 8653 primary PCI cases admitted to acute hospitals in England and Wales as recorded in the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) 2004-2007. We studied the impact of the volume of primary PCI cases (hospital volume) on door-to-balloon (DTB) times and the proportion of patients treated with primary PCI (hospital proportion) on 30-day mortality and employed regression analysis to identify reasons for DTB time variations with a multilevel component to express hospital variation. The proportion of patients receiving primary PCI increased from 5% in 2004 to 20% in 2007. Median DTB times reduced from 84 min in 2004 to 61 min in 2007. Median DTB times decreased as the number of primary PCI procedures increased. The 30-day all-cause mortality rate for hospitals performing primary PCI on >25% of ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients [5.0%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.9-6.1%] was almost double that of hospitals performing primary PCI on more than 75% (2.7%; 95% CI: 2.0-3.5%). Time-of-day, year of admission, sex, and diabetes significantly influenced DTB times. Hospital variation was evident by a hospital-level DTB time standard deviation of 12 min. There was a large variation in DTB times between the best and worst performing hospitals. Although patient-related factors impacted upon DTB times, the volume and proportion of patients undergoing primary PCI were significantly associated with delay and early mortality-hospitals with the highest proportion of primary PCI had the lowest mortality.

Teaching Children the Geography of England and Wales: An Analysis of Selected Georgian and Victorian Textbooks and Educational Pastimes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dove, Jane

2017-01-01

Children in Georgian and Victorian times were expected to be familiar with the geography of England and Wales. This study analyses some of the resources then available which taught children this information. John Aikin's "England Delineated" is evaluated as a geographical text and then compared with less formal games and puzzles, then on…

Universal fractal scaling in stream chemistry and its implications for solute transport and water quality trend detection

PubMed Central

Kirchner, James W.; Neal, Colin

2013-01-01

The chemical dynamics of lakes and streams affect their suitability as aquatic habitats and as water supplies for human needs. Because water quality is typically monitored only weekly or monthly, however, the higher-frequency dynamics of stream chemistry have remained largely invisible. To illuminate a wider spectrum of water quality dynamics, rainfall and streamflow were sampled in two headwater catchments at Plynlimon, Wales, at 7-h intervals for 1–2 y and weekly for over two decades, and were analyzed for 45 solutes spanning the periodic table from H+ to U. Here we show that in streamflow, all 45 of these solutes, including nutrients, trace elements, and toxic metals, exhibit fractal 1/fα scaling on time scales from hours to decades (α = 1.05 ± 0.15, mean ± SD). We show that this fractal scaling can arise through dispersion of random chemical inputs distributed across a catchment. These 1/f time series are non–self-averaging: monthly, yearly, or decadal averages are approximately as variable, one from the next, as individual measurements taken hours or days apart, defying naive statistical expectations. (By contrast, stream discharge itself is nonfractal, and self-averaging on time scales of months and longer.) In the solute time series, statistically significant trends arise much more frequently, on all time scales, than one would expect from conventional t statistics. However, these same trends are poor predictors of future trends—much poorer than one would expect from their calculated uncertainties. Our results illustrate how 1/f time series pose fundamental challenges to trend analysis and change detection in environmental systems. PMID:23842090

Recent Developments in Assessment Procedures in England and Wales.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldstein, Harvey; Nuttall, Desmond

Focusing on technical issues, this paper critiques proposed changes in assessment procedures at the further educational level (ages 16 through 18) in England and Wales. Major structural changes are taking place at this educational level, partly because of large scale youth unemployment. The two current examination systems for the final year of…

Youth Justice in England and Wales: A Risky Business

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paylor, Ian

2011-01-01

Risk factor research dominates explanatory models of youth offending and "evidence-based" policy and practice with young people in the youth justice system in England and Wales. Asset is the product of these actuarial ideas and has put the risk factor prevention paradigm into practice. This article evaluates the impact that an actuarial…

Language Policy, In-Migration and Discursive Debates in Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edwards, Catrin Wyn

2017-01-01

Drawing on theory from critical language policy literature, this article explores the impact of discourses on in-migration on Welsh language policy. By focussing on discursive debates surrounding the subject of in-migration, the article analyses how a range of actors produce and reproduce discourses on in-migration in Wales and how these…

Molybdenum distributions and variability in drinking water from England and Wales.

PubMed

Smedley, P L; Cooper, D M; Lapworth, D J

2014-10-01

An investigation has been carried out of molybdenum in drinking water from a selection of public supply sources and domestic taps across England and Wales. This was to assess concentrations in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) health-based value for Mo in drinking water of 70 μg/l and the decision to remove the element from the list of formal guideline values. Samples of treated drinking water from 12 water supply works were monitored up to four times over an 18-month period, and 24 domestic taps were sampled from three of their supply areas. Significant (p < 0.05) differences were apparent in Mo concentration between sources. Highest concentrations were derived from groundwater from a sulphide-mineralised catchment, although concentrations were only 1.5 μg/l. Temporal variability within sites was small, and no seasonal effects (p > 0.05) were detected. Tap water samples collected from three towns (North Wales, the English Midlands, and South East England) supplied uniquely by upland reservoir water, river water, and Chalk groundwater, respectively, also showed a remarkable uniformity in Mo concentrations at each location. Within each, the variability was very small between houses (old and new), between pre-flush and post-flush samples, and between the tap water and respective source water samples. The results indicate that water distribution pipework has a negligible effect on supplied tap water Mo concentrations. The findings contrast with those for Cu, Zn, Ni, Pb, and Cd, which showed significant differences (p < 0.05) in concentrations between pre-flush and post-flush tap water samples. In two pre-flush samples, concentrations of Ni or Pb were above drinking water limits, although in all cases, post-flush waters were compliant. The high concentrations, most likely derived from metal pipework in the domestic distribution system, accumulated during overnight stagnation. The concentrations of Mo observed in British drinking water, in

Salmonella enterica Serovar Enteritidis, England and Wales, 1945–2011

PubMed Central

Lane, Christopher R.; LeBaigue, Susan; Esan, Oluwaseun B.; Awofisyo, Adedoyin A.; Adams, Natalie L.; Fisher, Ian S.T.; Grant, Kathie A.; Peters, Tansy M.; Larkin, Lesley; Davies, Robert H.

2014-01-01

In England and Wales, the emergence of Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis resulted in the largest and most persistent epidemic of foodborne infection attributable to a single subtype of any pathogen since systematic national microbiological surveillance was established. We reviewed 67 years of surveillance data to examine the features, underlying causes, and overall effects of S. enterica ser. Enteritidis. The epidemic was associated with the consumption of contaminated chicken meat and eggs, and a decline in the number of infections began after the adoption of vaccination and other measures in production and distribution of chicken meat and eggs. We estimate that >525,000 persons became ill during the course of the epidemic, which caused a total of 6,750,000 days of illness, 27,000 hospitalizations, and 2,000 deaths. Measures undertaken to control the epidemic have resulted in a major reduction in foodborne disease in England and Wales. PMID:24960614

Variation in the annual unsatisfactory rates of selected pathogens and indicators in ready-to-eat food sampled from the point of sale or service in Wales, United Kingdom.

PubMed

Meldrum, R J; Garside, J; Mannion, P; Charles, D; Ellis, P

2012-12-01

The Welsh Food Microbiological Forum "shopping basket" survey is a long running, structured surveillance program examining ready-to-eat food randomly sampled from the point of sale or service in Wales, United Kingdom. The annual unsatisfactory rates for selected indicators and pathogens for 1998 through 2008 were examined. All the annual unsatisfactory rates for the selected pathogens were <0.5%, and no pattern with the annual rate was observed. There was also no discernible trend observed for the annual rates of Listeria spp. (not moncytogenes), with all rates <0.5%. However, there was a trend observed for Esherichia coli, with a decrease in rate between 1998 and 2003, rapid in the first few years, and then a gradual increase in rate up to 2008. It was concluded that there was no discernible pattern to the annual unsatisfactory rates for Listeria spp. (not monocytogenes), L. monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Bacillus cereus, but that a definite trend had been observed for E. coli.

Suicide preceded by murder: the epidemiology of homicide-suicide in England and Wales 1988-92.

PubMed

Barraclough, Brian; Harris, E Clare

2002-05-01

We describe for the first time the epidemiology of homicide-suicide incidents for England and Wales. Previous descriptions have been of incidents in London (1946-62) and Yorkshire and Humberside (1975-1992). Death certificates were obtained for all who died in homicide-suicide incidents in England and Wales (1988-1992) that were reported by the police to the Home Office. Incidents were included in the analysis if the interval between death or fatal injury of victim and suspect was 3 or fewer days. Three hundred and twenty-seven people died in 144 incidents (180 victims and 147 suspects). Eighty per cent of incidents had one victim and one suspect. Three incidents were also suicide pacts between two suspects killing their children. Eighty-eight per cent of incidents exclusively involved members of the same family, 9 % acquaintances or strangers, and 3 % both family and acquaintances or strangers. Seventy-five per cent of victims were female, 85% of suspects male. The victims of male suspects were predominantly their womenfolk, past and present, and their children, and of female suspects their young children. Car exhaust and firearms accounted for 40% of victim and 50% of suspect deaths. Of all homicides during 1988-1992, 3 % of male, 11% of female and 19% of child deaths occurred in homicide-suicide incidents. Similarly, of all suicides, 0.8% of male and 0.4% of female deaths occurred in homicide-suicide incidents. Homicide-suicide in England and Wales is mostly 'a family matter', men of predominantly lower social class killing their kin, and pre-menopausal mothers their young children, before they kill themselves. A few men kill strangers during a crime and then themselves.

Computer simulation of electrical characteristics of singlewalled carbon nanotube (9,0) with Stone-Wales defect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sergeyev, D.; Zhanturina, N.

2018-05-01

In the framework of the density functional theory, using the method of nonequilibrium Green's functions and in the local density approximation, the electrical characteristics of different configurations of a single-walled carbon nanotube with Stone-Wales defects are investigated. The calculation is implemented in the Atomistix ToolKit with Virtual NanoLab program. The current-voltage, dI/dV-characteristics and the density of states of the nanostructures under consideration were calculated. It is shown that the nature of the current flowing through defective carbon nanotubes depends on the extent of the Stone-Wales defects. It was found that a carbon nanotube with two consecutively connected Stone-Wales defects at a bias voltage of ± 2.6 V has a negative differential conductivity of -170 μS. The obtained results can be useful for calculations of new promising electronic devices of nanoelectronics based on a carbon nanotube.

The Trend-in-trend Research Design for Causal Inference.

PubMed

Ji, Xinyao; Small, Dylan S; Leonard, Charles E; Hennessy, Sean

2017-07-01

Cohort studies can be biased by unmeasured confounding. We propose a hybrid ecologic-epidemiologic design called the trend-in-trend design, which requires a strong time trend in exposure, but is unbiased unless there are unmeasured factors affecting outcome for which there are time trends in prevalence that are correlated with time trends in exposure across strata with different exposure trends. Thus, the conditions under which the trend-in-trend study is biased are a subset of those under which a cohort study is biased. The trend-in-trend design first divides the study population into strata based on the cumulative probability of exposure given covariates, which effectively stratifies on time trend in exposure, provided there is a trend. Next, a covariates-free maximum likelihood model estimates the odds ratio (OR) using data on exposure prevalence and outcome frequency within cumulative probability of exposure strata, across multiple periods. In simulations, the trend-in-trend design produced ORs with negligible bias in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In empiric applications, trend-in-trend reproduced the known positive association between rofecoxib and myocardial infarction (observed OR: 1.2, 95% confidence interval: 1.1, 1.4), and known null associations between rofecoxib and severe hypoglycemia (OR = 1.1 [0.92, 1.3]) and nonvertebral fracture (OR = 0.84 [0.64, 1.1]). The trend-in-trend method may be useful in settings where there is a strong time trend in exposure, such as a newly approved drug or other medical intervention. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B178.

The western arctic linkage experiment (WALE): overview and synthesis

Treesearch

A.D. McGuire; J. Walsh; J.S. Kimball; J.S. Clein; S.E. Euskirdhen; S. Drobot; U.C. Herzfeld; J. Maslanik; R.B. Lammers; M.A. Rawlins; C.J. Vorosmarty; T.S. Rupp; W. Wu; M. Calef

2008-01-01

The primary goal of the Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE) was to better understand uncertainties of simulated hydrologic and ecosystem dynamics of the western Arctic in the context of 1) uncertainties in the data available to drive the models and 2) different approaches to simulating regional hydrology and ecosystem dynamics. Analyses of datasets on climate...

Deprivation and self-reported health: are there 'Scottish effects' in England and Wales?

PubMed

Whynes, David K

2009-03-01

Although the association between poor health and deprivation is well-founded, a 'Scottish effect' has been observed, whereby the level of health appears even poorer than Scotland's higher level of deprivation should warrant. We consider whether 'Scottish effects' also occur within the regions of England and Wales. Using ward-level data from the national census, we regress healthy life expectancies relative to total life expectancies on Carstairs deprivation scores, households' average disposable incomes, geo-spatial characteristics and regional dummy variables. Higher incomes and lower Carstairs scores are each associated with longer proportions of lives expected to be spent in good health or without long-standing illness. Relative to the London region, the coefficients on the regional dummies are uniformly negative and mostly significant. There exist differences in relative health expectancies between the regions of England and Wales, which are not fully explained by the differences in socio-economic circumstances. Conventional deprivation measures tend to understate the poorer health performances of the more deprived regions (Wales and the north of England), and the understatement increases with deprivation. The exception to the rule is London, where health expectancies are superior to those which deprivation leads us to expect.

Sublake geologic structure from high-resolution seismic-reflection data from four sinkhole lakes in the Lake Wales Ridge, Central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tihansky, A.B.; Arthur, J.D.; DeWitt, D.W.

1996-01-01

Seismic-reflection profiles from Lake Wales, Blue Lake, Lake Letta, and Lake Apthorp located along the Lake Wales Ridge in central Florida provide local detail within the regional hydrogeologic framework as described by litho- and hydrostratigraphic cross sections. Lakes located with the mantled karst region have long been considered to be sinkhole lakes, originating from subsidence activity. High-resolution seismic- reflection data confirm this origin for these four lakes. The geologic framework of the Lake Wales Ridge has proven to be a suitable geologic setting for continuous high-resolution seismic-reflection profiling in lakes; however, the nature of the lake-bottom sediments largely controls the quality of the seismic data. In lakes with significant organic-rich bottom deposits, interpretable record was limited to areas where organic deposits were minimal. In lakes with clean, sandy bottoms, the seismic-reflection methods were highly successful in obtaining data that can be correlated with sublake subsidence features. These techniques are useful in examining sublake geology and providing a better understanding of how confining units are affected by subsidence in a region where their continuity is of significant importance to local lake hydrology. Although local geologic control around each lake generally corresponds to the regional geologic framework, local deviations from regional geologic trends occur in sublake areas affected by subsidence activity. Each of the four lakes examined represents a unique set of geologic controls and provides some degree of structural evidence of subsidence activity. Sublake geologic structures identified include: (1) marginal lake sediments dipping into bathymetric lows, (2) lateral discontinuity of confining units including sags and breaches, (3) the disruption and reworking of overlying unconsolidated siliciclastic sediments as they subside into the underlying irregular limestone surface, and (4) sublake regions where

Time trend in the surgical therapy of lung cancer.

PubMed

Stolz, A; Pafko, P; Lischke, R; Harustiak, T; Simonek, J; Schutzner, J; Adamek, S

2011-01-01

The purpose of our study was to clarify results of surgery for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and its time trends. We retrospectively reviewed our prospective database of patients who underwent surgery for NSCLC between 1998 and 2009 in our institution. Patients were divided into two equal 6-year periods according to the year of surgery (1998-2003 and 2004-2009). One thousand, four hundred and twelve patients underwent operation for NSCLC. We performed 985 lobectomies with 30-days mortality of 1.8 % and 300 pneumonectomies with 30-days mortality of 5.7 %. Median of survival of all 1412 patients was 4.3 year and 5-year survival was 45 %. The percentage of female patients, lobectomies and adenocarcinomas increased over time, as well as the age of our patients. Outcome improved over time, with significant decrease in a 30-days mortality after pneumonectomy (8.2 % vs 2.3 %, p=0.029). The overall 3-year survival improved in patients with stage III (30 % vs 40 %, p=0.012). Outcomes of lung resection for NSCLC improved over time despite a worsening of some elements of preoperative status. The shift in histological distribution was associated with an increasing proportion of patients with stage I, a lower operative mortality and better 3- and 5-year survival. These trends are due to improvement of preoperative evaluation, preoperative and postoperative care (Tab. 1, Fig. 2, Ref. 9). Full Text in free PDF www.bmj.sk.

The Politics of Education and the Misrecognition of Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Power, Sally

2016-01-01

This paper examines the positioning of the Welsh education system within contemporary policy debate and analysis. It begins by outlining some of the ways in which education policy and provision in Wales differs from that of its neighbour, England, and then goes on to critique how these differences have been represented in both the media and by…

Maternal exposures in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study: Time trends of selected exposures.

PubMed

Dawson, April L; Razzaghi, Hilda; Arth, Annelise; Canfield, Mark A; Parker, Samantha E; Reefhuis, Jennita

2015-08-01

Our objective was to describe time trends in selected pregnancy exposures in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (NBDPS). We analyzed data from the NBDPS, a multi-site case-control study of major birth defects, for mothers of live-born infants without birth defects (controls), with an expected date of delivery (EDD) from 1998 to 2011. Mothers from the 10 participating centers across the United States were interviewed by phone between 6 weeks and 2 years after the EDD. We focused on maternal race/ethnicity and five maternal risk factors: obesity, use of folic acid-containing multivitamins, opioid analgesics, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, and loratadine because of their prevalence of use and some reports of associations with major birth defects. Prevalence time trends were examined using the Kendall's τβ test statistic. The exposure trend analysis included 11,724 control mothers with EDDs from 1998 to 2011. We observed a significant increase in obesity prevalence among control mothers, as well as use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and loratadine. We also observed an increase in periconceptional use of folic acid-containing multivitamins. Some of the time trends varied by race/ethnicity. No remarkable trend in the overall use of opioid analgesics was observed. The racial/ethnic distribution of mothers changed slightly during the study period. Long-term, population-based case-control studies continue to be an effective way to assess exposure-birth defects associations and provide guidance to health care providers. However, investigators examining rare outcomes covering many years of data collection need to be cognizant of time trends in exposures. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Maternal exposures in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study: time trends of selected exposures

PubMed Central

Dawson, April L.; Razzaghi, Hilda; Arth, Annelise; Canfield, Mark A.; Parker, Samantha E.; Reefhuis, Jennita

2015-01-01

Background Our objective was to describe time trends in selected pregnancy exposures in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (NBDPS). Methods We analyzed data from the NBDPS, a multi-site case-control study of major birth defects, for mothers of live-born infants without birth defects (controls), with an expected date of delivery (EDD) from 1998 –2011. Mothers from the 10 participating centers across the United States were interviewed by phone between six weeks and two years after the EDD. We focused on maternal race/ethnicity and five maternal risk factors: obesity, use of folic acid-containing multivitamins, opioid analgesics, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), and loratadine because of their prevalence of use and some reports of associations with major birth defects. Prevalence time trends were examined using the Kendall’s τβ test statistic. Results The exposure trend analysis included 11,724 control mothers with EDDs from 1998–2011. We observed a significant increase in obesity prevalence among control mothers, as well as use of SSRIs and loratadine. We also observed an increase in periconceptional use of folic acid-containing multivitamins. Some of the time trends varied by race/ethnicity. No remarkable trend in the overall use of opioid analgesics was observed. The racial/ethnic distribution of mothers changed slightly during the study period. Conclusions Long-term, population-based case-control studies continue to be an effective way to assess exposure-birth defects associations and provide guidance to health care providers. However, investigators examining rare outcomes covering many years of data collection need to be cognizant of time trends in exposures. PMID:25884728

Developing a historical climatology of Wales from Welsh and English language sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, N.; Davies, S. J.; Jones, C. A.; Charnell-White, C.

2009-04-01

Historical documentary records are recognised as valuable in understanding long term climate variability. In the UK, the Central England Temperature Series (1772- ) and the Lamb weather catalogue (1861- ) provide a detailed climate record for England, but the value of these archives in Wales and Scotland is more limited, though some long term instrumental series exist, particularly for cities such as Cardiff. The spatial distance from the central England area and a lower density of instrumental stations in Wales has limited understanding of climate variability during the instrumental period (~1750- ). This paper illustrates that historical documentary records represent a considerable resource, that to date have been underutilised in developing a more complete understanding of past weather and climate within many parts of Western Europe.

Some aspects of river flow in northern New South Wales, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, R. C.

1984-03-01

A number of catchment and hydrological characteristics are examined for a 385,000 km 2 study area in northern New South Wales. This study area spans the Great Divide and data selected from the archives of the New South Wales Water Resources Commission illustrate the marked contrasts in the character and variability of streamflow between coastal rivers draining comparatively small steeply sloping basins east of the Great Divide and the larger river systems draining the more extensive semi-arid basins of the western slopes. Particular attention is paid to comparisons of annual flows, flow-duration curves, seasonal flow regimes, flood flow and low flows. The study not only confirms the hydrological contrasts between two distinct geographical regions but also emphasises the rigorous data requirements of hydrological studies in areas of high variability of precipitation and streamflow.

Six-Year Follow-Up of Impact of Co-proxamol Withdrawal in England and Wales on Prescribing and Deaths: Time-Series Study

PubMed Central

Hawton, Keith; Bergen, Helen; Simkin, Sue; Wells, Claudia; Kapur, Navneet; Gunnell, David

2012-01-01

Background The analgesic co-proxamol (paracetamol/dextropropoxyphene combination) has been widely involved in fatal poisoning. Concerns about its safety/effectiveness profile and widespread use for suicidal poisoning prompted its withdrawal in the UK in 2005, with partial withdrawal between 2005 and 2007, and full withdrawal in 2008. Our objective in this study was to assess the association between co-proxamol withdrawal and prescribing and deaths in England and Wales in 2005–2010 compared with 1998–2004, including estimation of possible substitution effects by other analgesics. Methods and Findings We obtained prescribing data from the NHS Health and Social Care Information Centre (England) and Prescribing Services Partneriaeth Cydwasanaethau GIG Cymru (Wales), and mortality data from the Office for National Statistics. We carried out an interrupted time-series analysis of prescribing and deaths (suicide, open verdicts, accidental poisonings) involving single analgesics. The reduction in prescribing of co-proxamol following its withdrawal in 2005 was accompanied by increases in prescribing of several other analgesics (co-codamol, paracetamol, codeine, co-dydramol, tramadol, oxycodone, and morphine) during 2005–2010 compared with 1998–2004. These changes were associated with major reductions in deaths due to poisoning with co-proxamol receiving verdicts of suicide and undetermined cause of −21 deaths (95% CI −34 to −8) per quarter, equating to approximately 500 fewer suicide deaths (−61%) over the 6 years 2005–2010, and −25 deaths (95% CI −38 to −12) per quarter, equating to 600 fewer deaths (−62%) when accidental poisoning deaths were included. There was little observed change in deaths involving other analgesics, apart from an increase in oxycodone poisonings, but numbers were small. Limitations were that the study was based on deaths involving single drugs alone and changes in deaths involving prescribed morphine could not be assessed

Diagnoses of Autism Spectrum Disorders in Germany: Time Trends in Administrative Prevalence and Diagnostic Stability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bachmann, Christian J.; Gerste, Bettina; Hoffmann, Falk

2018-01-01

For Germany, no data on trends in autism spectrum disorder diagnoses are available. The primary aim of this study was to establish the time trends in the administrative prevalence of autism spectrum disorder diagnoses. The second aim was to assess the stability of autism spectrum disorder diagnoses over time. We analysed administrative outpatient…

Time trends and patterns of reported egg consumption in the U.S. by sociodemographic characteristics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Objectives: To 1) describe time trends of the percentage of individuals in the U.S that consume eggs, 2) describe time trends of the daily amount of eggs consumed per day, and 3) examine differences in the amount of eggs consumed per day; overall and by gender, age, income, education, race-ethnicit...

Inclusive Policy and Exclusionary Practice in Secondary Education in Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Selleck, Charlotte L. R.

2013-01-01

This article reports on a study of two contrasting secondary schools, serving the same "community" in south-west Wales; a bilingual school (Welsh and English) and an English-medium school (English only). Data were gathered using ethnographic methods, with this study focusing primarily on data elicited through "ethnographic…

"Activity Choice" and Physical Education in England and Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Andy; Green, Ken; Thurston, Miranda

2009-01-01

This paper draws on data from a broader study, the central object of which was to explore the place of sport and physical activity in young people's lives. More particularly, the paper reports the findings of 24 focus groups conducted with 153 15-16 year olds in north-west England and north-east Wales in order to examine young people's views…

New Labour, Communitarianism and Citizenship Education in England and Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dunn, Andrew; Burton, Diana

2011-01-01

This article posits a connection between the influence of communitarianism on New Labour's ideology and the content of citizenship education in England and Wales. We first describe and problematize communitarianism, drawing on both UK and US thinkers, and then relate our findings to literature on citizenship education. We conclude by suggesting…

Sources of career disadvantage in nursing. A study of NHS Wales.

PubMed

Lane, N

1999-01-01

Despite the numerical predominance of women in nursing there is a marked concentration of women, especially those working part-time, in the lower echelons of the profession. The paper presents survey data and interview material from a study of qualified nurses in NHS Wales. By controlling for differences in education and experience in nursing work, it was found that comparable groups of female nurses received unequal employment opportunities. Women with dependent children were primarily located in the lower nurse grades irrespective of their qualifications and experience. Much of this was associated with inflexible working practices, and the low status of part-time work. Occupational downgrading for female returners was also a significant barrier to career advancement. However, these problems were not recognised by management. Management failed to evaluate the mechanics of their human resource policies in terms which matter to many nurses, in particular with regard to the management of diversity.

Up or Down and Out? A Systemic Analysis of Young People's Educational Pathways in the Youth Justice System in England and Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lanskey, Caroline

2015-01-01

Many young people in the youth justice system in England and Wales are educationally marginalised and systemic barriers to their engagement with education persist. This article presents an analytical framework for understanding how education and youth justice practices shape young people's educational pathways during their time in the youth…

Tuberculosis at the end of the 20th century in England and Wales: results of a national survey in 1998

PubMed Central

Rose, A; Watson, J; Graham, C; Nunn, A; Drobniewski, F; Ormerod, L; Darbyshire, J; Leese, J

2001-01-01

BACKGROUND—A national survey of tuberculosis was conducted in England and Wales in 1998 to obtain detailed information on the occurrence of the disease and recent trends. This survey also piloted the methodology for enhanced tuberculosis surveillance in England and Wales and investigated the prevalence of HIV infection in adults with tuberculosis.
METHODS—Clinical and demographic data for all cases diagnosed during 1998 were obtained, together with microbiological data where available. Annual incidence rates in the population were estimated by age, sex, ethnic group, and geographical region using denominators from the 1998 Labour Force Survey. Incidence rates in different subgroups of the population were compared with the rates observed in previous surveys. The tuberculosis survey database for 1998was matched against the Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre HIV/AIDS database to estimate the prevalence of HIV co-infection in adult patients with tuberculosis.
RESULTS—A total of 5658 patients with tuberculosis were included in the survey in England and Wales (94% of all formally notified cases during the same period), giving an annual rate of 10.93per 100 000 population (95% CI 10.87 to 10.99). This represented an increase of 11% in the number of cases since the survey in 1993 and 21% since 1988. In many regions case numbers have remained little changed since 1988, but in London an increase of 71% was observed. The number of children with tuberculosis has decreased by 10% since 1993. Annual rates of tuberculosis per 100 000 population have continued to decline among the white population (4.38) and those from the Indian subcontinent, although the rate for the latter has remained high at 121 per 100 000. Annual rates per 100 000 have increased in all other ethnic groups, especially among those of black African (210) and Chinese (77.3) origin. Over 50% of all patients were born outside the UK. Recent entrants to the UK had higher rates of the disease than

MONITORING FOR POLICY-RELEVANT REGIONAL TRENDS OVER TIME

EPA Science Inventory

The term trend describes the continuing directional change in the value of an indicator, generally upward or generally downward. Many policy questions concern trend across a number of sites, such as lakes in a region, rather than trend at a single site. Power to detect regional t...

A history of Soil Survey in England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallett, S.; Deeks, L.

2012-04-01

Early soil mapping in Britain was dominated, as in the USA, by soil texture with maps dating back to the early 1900's identifying surface texture and parent rock materials. Only in the 1920's did Dokuchaev's work in Russia involving soil morphology and the development of the soil profile start to gain popularity, drawing in the influence of climate and topography on pedogenesis. Intentions to create a formal body at this time responsible for soil survey were not implemented and progress remained slow. However, in 1939 definite steps were taken to address this and the soil survey was created. In 1947, its activities were transferred from Bangor to the research branch of the Rothamsted experimental station in Hertfordshire under Professor G.W. Robinson. Soon after, a number of regional offices were also established to act as a link with the National Agricultural Advisory Service. At this time a Pedology Department was established at Rothamsted, focussing on petrological, X-ray, spectrographic and chemical analyses. Although not a Rothamsted Department itself, the Survey did fall under the 'Lawes Agricultural Trust'. A Soil Survey Research Advisory Board was also formed to act as a liaison with the Agricultural Field Council. In Scotland by contrast, soil survey activities became centred on the Macaulay Institute in Aberdeen. Developments in the survey of British soils were accompanied in parallel by the development of soil classification systems. In 1930 a Soils Correlation Committee had been formed to ensure consistency in methods and naming of soil series and to ensure the classification was applied uniformly. In England and Wales the zonal system adopted was similar to that used in the USA, where soil series were named after the location where they were first described. American soil scientists such as Veitch and Lee provided stimulus to the development of mapping methods. In Scotland a differing classification was adopted, being similar to that used in Canada

United States forest disturbance trends observed with landsat time series

Treesearch

Jeffrey G. Masek; Samuel N. Goward; Robert E. Kennedy; Warren B. Cohen; Gretchen G. Moisen; Karen Schleweiss; Chengquan Huang

2013-01-01

Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing US land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest...

Mortality attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015: explorations with a spreadsheet implementation of the Comparative Risk Assessment methodology.

PubMed

Kelly, Christopher; Pashayan, Nora; Munisamy, Sreetharan; Powles, John W

2009-06-30

Our aim was to estimate the burden of fatal disease attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015 and to explore the sensitivity of the estimates to the assumptions and methods used. A spreadsheet implementation of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology for continuously distributed exposures was used. For our base case, adiposity-related risks were assumed to be minimal with a mean (SD) BMI of 21 (1) Kg m-2. All cause mortality risks for 2015 were taken from the Government Actuary and alternative compositions by cause derived. Disease-specific relative risks by BMI were taken from the CRA project and varied in sensitivity analyses. Under base case methods and assumptions for 2003, approximately 41,000 deaths and a loss of 1.05 years of life expectancy were attributed to excess adiposity. Seventy-seven percent of all diabetic deaths, 23% of all ischaemic heart disease deaths and 14% of all cerebrovascular disease deaths were attributed to excess adiposity. Predictions for 2015 were found to be more sensitive to assumptions about the future course of mortality risks for diabetes than to variation in the assumed trend in BMI. On less favourable assumptions the attributable loss of life expectancy in 2015 would rise modestly to 1.28 years. Excess adiposity appears to contribute materially but modestly to mortality risks in England and Wales and this contribution is likely to increase in the future. Uncertainty centres on future trends of associated diseases, especially diabetes. The robustness of these estimates is limited by the lack of control for correlated risks by stratification and by the empirical uncertainty surrounding the effects of prolonged excess adiposity beginning in adolescence.

Mortality attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015: explorations with a spreadsheet implementation of the Comparative Risk Assessment methodology

PubMed Central

Kelly, Christopher; Pashayan, Nora; Munisamy, Sreetharan; Powles, John W

2009-01-01

Background Our aim was to estimate the burden of fatal disease attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015 and to explore the sensitivity of the estimates to the assumptions and methods used. Methods A spreadsheet implementation of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology for continuously distributed exposures was used. For our base case, adiposity-related risks were assumed to be minimal with a mean (SD) BMI of 21 (1) Kg m-2. All cause mortality risks for 2015 were taken from the Government Actuary and alternative compositions by cause derived. Disease-specific relative risks by BMI were taken from the CRA project and varied in sensitivity analyses. Results Under base case methods and assumptions for 2003, approximately 41,000 deaths and a loss of 1.05 years of life expectancy were attributed to excess adiposity. Seventy-seven percent of all diabetic deaths, 23% of all ischaemic heart disease deaths and 14% of all cerebrovascular disease deaths were attributed to excess adiposity. Predictions for 2015 were found to be more sensitive to assumptions about the future course of mortality risks for diabetes than to variation in the assumed trend in BMI. On less favourable assumptions the attributable loss of life expectancy in 2015 would rise modestly to 1.28 years. Conclusion Excess adiposity appears to contribute materially but modestly to mortality risks in England and Wales and this contribution is likely to increase in the future. Uncertainty centres on future trends of associated diseases, especially diabetes. The robustness of these estimates is limited by the lack of control for correlated risks by stratification and by the empirical uncertainty surrounding the effects of prolonged excess adiposity beginning in adolescence. PMID:19566928

Canadian population trends in leisure-time physical activity levels, 1981-1998.

PubMed

Bruce, Marny J; Katzmarzyk, Peter T

2002-12-01

Age, sex, geographic and temporal trends in leisure-time physical activity levels were examined using data from five national surveys conducted between 1981 and 1998. Physical activity energy expenditure (AEE) was higher among men compared to women, and in younger versus older adults. AEE increased from Eastern to Western Canada, with a significant temporal trend of increasing AEE. The prevalence of physical inactivity (expending <12.6 kJ x kg(-1) x day(-1) has decreased; however, it remains high (women: 77%; men: 74%). The high prevalence of physical inactivity emphasizes the importance of population-level physical activity surveillance and interventions.

Empirical Mode Decomposition and k-Nearest Embedding Vectors for Timely Analyses of Antibiotic Resistance Trends

PubMed Central

Teodoro, Douglas; Lovis, Christian

2013-01-01

Background Antibiotic resistance is a major worldwide public health concern. In clinical settings, timely antibiotic resistance information is key for care providers as it allows appropriate targeted treatment or improved empirical treatment when the specific results of the patient are not yet available. Objective To improve antibiotic resistance trend analysis algorithms by building a novel, fully data-driven forecasting method from the combination of trend extraction and machine learning models for enhanced biosurveillance systems. Methods We investigate a robust model for extraction and forecasting of antibiotic resistance trends using a decade of microbiology data. Our method consists of breaking down the resistance time series into independent oscillatory components via the empirical mode decomposition technique. The resulting waveforms describing intrinsic resistance trends serve as the input for the forecasting algorithm. The algorithm applies the delay coordinate embedding theorem together with the k-nearest neighbor framework to project mappings from past events into the future dimension and estimate the resistance levels. Results The algorithms that decompose the resistance time series and filter out high frequency components showed statistically significant performance improvements in comparison with a benchmark random walk model. We present further qualitative use-cases of antibiotic resistance trend extraction, where empirical mode decomposition was applied to highlight the specificities of the resistance trends. Conclusion The decomposition of the raw signal was found not only to yield valuable insight into the resistance evolution, but also to produce novel models of resistance forecasters with boosted prediction performance, which could be utilized as a complementary method in the analysis of antibiotic resistance trends. PMID:23637796

Flood Forecasting in Wales: Challenges and Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

How, Andrew; Williams, Christopher

2015-04-01

With steep, fast-responding river catchments, exposed coastal reaches with large tidal ranges and large population densities in some of the most at-risk areas; flood forecasting in Wales presents many varied challenges. Utilising advances in computing power and learning from best practice within the United Kingdom and abroad have seen significant improvements in recent years - however, many challenges still remain. Developments in computing and increased processing power comes with a significant price tag; greater numbers of data sources and ensemble feeds brings a better understanding of uncertainty but the wealth of data needs careful management to ensure a clear message of risk is disseminated; new modelling techniques utilise better and faster computation, but lack the history of record and experience gained from the continued use of more established forecasting models. As a flood forecasting team we work to develop coastal and fluvial forecasting models, set them up for operational use and manage the duty role that runs the models in real time. An overview of our current operational flood forecasting system will be presented, along with a discussion on some of the solutions we have in place to address the challenges we face. These include: • real-time updating of fluvial models • rainfall forecasting verification • ensemble forecast data • longer range forecast data • contingency models • offshore to nearshore wave transformation • calculation of wave overtopping

Shakespeare in New South Wales Secondary Schools: A Brief History.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watson, Ken

2003-01-01

Explains that throughout the past one hundred years, the question of how Shakespeare plays should be taught has been a point of contention in the New South Wales secondary English curriculum. Outlines the two main stances, the traditional literature-based approach and the active approach with emphasis on the text as play script. Discusses the…

MISR Stereo Imagery of Blue Mountain Fires in New South Wales, Australia

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2013-12-17

article title:  MISR Stereo Imagery of Blue Mountain Fires in New South Wales, Australia   ... mile (2 kilometers). On this date, the winds were relatively light and the temperature was around 77 degrees Fahrenheit (25 degrees ...

Hybrid model for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and salendar variation patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhartono; Rahayu, S. P.; Prastyo, D. D.; Wijayanti, D. G. P.; Juliyanto

2017-09-01

Most of the monthly time series data in economics and business in Indonesia and other Moslem countries not only contain trend and seasonal, but also affected by two types of calendar variation effects, i.e. the effect of the number of working days or trading and holiday effects. The purpose of this research is to develop a hybrid model or a combination of several forecasting models to predict time series that contain trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. This hybrid model is a combination of classical models (namely time series regression and ARIMA model) and/or modern methods (artificial intelligence method, i.e. Artificial Neural Networks). A simulation study was used to show that the proposed procedure for building the hybrid model could work well for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid model is applied for forecasting real data, i.e. monthly data about inflow and outflow of currency at Bank Indonesia. The results show that the hybrid model tend to provide more accurate forecasts than individual forecasting models. Moreover, this result is also in line with the third results of the M3 competition, i.e. the hybrid model on average provides a more accurate forecast than the individual model.

A national framework for flood forecasting model assessment for use in operations and investment planning over England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Robert J.; Wells, Steven C.; Cole, Steven J.

2016-04-01

It has been common for flood forecasting systems to be commissioned at a catchment or regional level in response to local priorities and hydrological conditions, leading to variety in system design and model choice. As systems mature and efficiencies of national management are sought, there can be a drive towards system rationalisation, gaining an overview of model performance and consideration of simplification through model-type convergence. Flood forecasting model assessments, whilst overseen at a national level, may be commissioned and managed at a catchment and regional level, take a variety of forms and be large in number. This presents a challenge when an integrated national assessment is required to guide operational use of flood forecasts and plan future investment in flood forecasting models and supporting hydrometric monitoring. This contribution reports on how a nationally consistent framework for flood forecasting model performance has been developed to embrace many past, ongoing and future assessments for local river systems by engineering consultants across England & Wales. The outcome is a Performance Summary for every site model assessed which, on a single page, contains relevant catchment information for context, a selection of overlain forecast and observed hydrographs and a set of performance statistics with associated displays of novel condensed form. One display provides performance comparison with other models that may exist for the site. The performance statistics include skill scores for forecasting events (flow/level threshold crossings) of differing severity/rarity, indicating their probability and likely timing, which have real value in an operational setting. The local models assessed can be of any type and span rainfall-runoff (conceptual and transfer function) and flow routing (hydrological and hydrodynamic) forms. Also accommodated by the framework is the national G2G (Grid-to-Grid) distributed hydrological model, providing area

Time for children: trends in the employment patterns of parents, 1967-2009.

PubMed

Fox, Liana; Han, Wen-Jui; Ruhm, Christopher; Waldfogel, Jane

2013-02-01

Using data from the 1967-2009 years of the March Current Population Surveys (CPS), we examine two important resources for children's well-being: time and money. We document trends in parental employment, from the perspective of children, and show what underlies these trends. We find that increases in family work hours mainly reflect movements into jobs by parents-particularly mothers, who in prior decades would have remained at home. This increase in market work has raised incomes for children in the typical two-parent family but not for those in lone-parent households. Time use data from 1975 and 2003-2008 reveal that working parents spend less time engaged in primary childcare than their counterparts without jobs but more than employed peers in previous cohorts. Analysis of 2004 work schedule data suggests that non-daytime work provides an alternative method of coordinating employment schedules for some dual-earner families.

A Profile of Respite Service Providers in New South Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chan, Jeffrey B.

2008-01-01

Respite is one of the critical support systems for families and carers who support and care for a person with a life-long disability. This study examined the profile of respite services in the Australian state of New South Wales and explored respite providers' views of the factors influencing respite use, and their expectations of respite…

Development of a Senior Physics Syllabus in New South Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Binnie, Anna

2004-01-01

In 2000, the New South Wales Board of Studies introduced new syllabi for Junior Science (years 7-10) and Senior Science subjects (years 11 and 12), i.e. Physics, Chemistry, Biology, and Earth and Environmental Science (Geology). The structure of these courses is similar: it is based on a contextual perspective and is underpinned by a number of…

Embracing the UNCRC in Wales (UK): Policy, Pedagogy and Prejudices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lyle, Sue

2014-01-01

Most countries are signatories to the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (UNCRC). In 1999, the Government of Wales was devolved from the UK, and in 2011 the "Children and Young Persons Rights Measure" put the UNCRC as the basis of all its work. Any programme introduced in schools should therefore promote the UNCRC. To…

Respectability, morality and disgust in the night‐time economy: exploring reactions to ‘lap dance’ clubs in England and Wales

PubMed Central

Hubbard, Phil; Colosi, Rachela

2015-01-01

Abstract The night‐time economy is often described as repelling consumers fearful of the ‘undesirable Others’ imagined dominant within such time‐spaces. In this paper we explore this by describing attitudes towards, and reactions to, one particularly contentious site: the ‘lap dance’ club. Often targeted by campaigners in England and Wales as a source of criminality and anti‐sociality, in this paper we shift the focus from fear to disgust, and argue that Sexual Entertainment Venues (SEVs) are opposed on the basis of moral judgments that reflect distinctions of both class and gender. Drawing on documentary analysis, survey results and interview data collected during guided walks, we detail the concerns voiced by those anxious about the presence of lap dance or striptease clubs in their town or city, particularly the notion that they ‘lower the tone’ of particular streets or neighbourhoods. Our conclusion is that the opposition expressed to lap dance clubs is part of an attempt to police the boundaries of respectable masculinities and femininities, marginalizing the producers and consumers of sexual entertainment through ‘speech acts’ which identify such entertainment as unruly, vulgar and uncivilized. These findings are considered in the light of ongoing debates concerning the relations of morality, respectability and disgust. PMID:27708460

Time Trends in Bullying Behavior in Italy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vieno, Alessio; Lenzi, Michela; Gini, Gianluca; Pozzoli, Tiziana; Cavallo, Franco; Santinello, Massimo

2015-01-01

Background: Given the severity of outcomes associated with involvement in bullying and the resources spent in an effort to reduce its prevalence, it is important to investigate trends in the bullying's occurrence. The main aim of this study was to identify trends from 2002 to 2010 in prevalence of bullying and victimization among Italian…

An approach to plan and evaluate the location of radiotherapy services and its application in the New South Wales, Australia.

PubMed

Shukla, Nagesh; Wickramasuriya, Rohan; Miller, Andrew; Perez, Pascal

2015-11-01

This paper proposes an integrated modelling approach for location planning of radiotherapy treatment services based on cancer incidence and road network-based accessibility. Previous research efforts have established travel distance/time barriers as a key factor affecting access to cancer treatment services, as well as epidemiological studies have shown that cancer incidence rates vary with population demography. Our study is built on the evidence that the travel distances to treatment centres and demographic profiles of the accessible regions greatly influence the uptake of cancer radiotherapy (RT) services. An integrated service planning approach that combines spatially-explicit cancer incidence projections, and the placement of new RT services based on road network based accessibility measures have never been attempted. This research presents a novel approach for the location planning of RT services, and demonstrates its viability by modelling cancer incidence rates for different age-sex groups in New South Wales, Australia based on observed cancer incidence trends; and estimations of the road network-based access to current NSW treatment centres. Using three indices (General Efficiency, Service Availability and Equity), we show how the best location for a new RT centre may be chosen when there are multiple competing locations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Theoretical Framework of Leadership in Higher Education of England and Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mukan, Nataliya; Havrylyuk, Marianna; Stolyarchuk, Lesia

2015-01-01

In the article the theoretical framework of leadership in higher education of England and Wales has been studied. The main objectives of the article are defined as analysis of scientific and pedagogical literature, which highlights different aspects of the problem under research; characteristic of the theoretical fundamentals of educational…

Effect of 11 September 2001 on suicide and homicide in England and Wales.

PubMed

Salib, Emad

2003-09-01

The tragic events of 11 September 2001 and televised scenes of the terrorists' homicidal and suicidal acts could have had an impact on the behaviour of some people, who harbour suicidal ideation or homicidal tendencies. To assess the effect of 11 September 2001 on the rate of suicide and homicide in England and Wales. Analysis of the number of suicides (ICD-9 codes: E950-E959), undetermined injury deaths (E980-E989) and homicides (E960-E969) in England and Wales in the 12 weeks before and after 11 September 2001 and during a similar period in the previous two years. The number of suicides reported in the month of September 2001 was significantly lower than other months in the same year and any September of the previous 22 years in England and Wales. A suicide reduction in men, regardless of age, occurred in the week starting Tuesday 11 September 2001. A reduction in female suicide occurred during the four weeks following the attack. There was no evidence of a similar effect on homicide. The tragic events of 11 September 2001 appear to have had a brief but significant inverse effect on suicide.The finding of this study supports Durkheim's theory that periods of external threat create group integration within society and lower the suicide rate through the impact on social cohesion.

Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea.

PubMed

Park, Jae-Won; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Kim, Ho; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis; Mueller, Ivo

2016-01-01

This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

Capacity withholding in wholesale electricity markets: The experience in England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, James Arnold

This thesis examines the incentives wholesale electricity generators face to withhold generating capacity from centralized electricity spot markets. The first chapter includes a brief history of electricity industry regulation in England and Wales and in the United States, including a description of key institutional features of England and Wales' restructured electricity market. The first chapter also includes a review of the literature on both bid price manipulation and capacity bid manipulation in centralized electricity markets. The second chapter details a theoretical model of wholesale generator behavior in a single price electricity market. A duopoly model is specified under the assumption that demand is non-stochastic. This model assumes that duopoly generators offer to sell electricity at their marginal cost, but can withhold a continuous segment of their capacity from the market. The Nash equilibrium withholding strategy of this model involves each duopoly generator withholding so that it produces the Cournot equilibrium output. A monopoly model along the lines of the duopoly model is specified and simulated under the assumption that demand is stochastic. The optimal strategy depends on the degree of demand uncertainty. When there is a moderate degree of demand uncertainty, the optimal withholding strategy involves production inefficiencies. When there is a high degree of demand uncertainty, the optimal monopoly quantity is greater than the optimal output level when demand is non-stochastic. The third chapter contains an empirical examination of the behavior of generators in the wholesale electricity market in England and Wales in the early 1990's. The wholesale market in England and Wales is analyzed because the industry structure in the early 1990's created a natural experiment, which is described in this chapter, whereby one of the two dominant generators had no incentive to behave non-competitively. This chapter develops a classification methodology

One Teacher Primary Schools: England, Scotland and Wales, 1996-97.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muse, Ivan; Hite, Steve; Powley, Ellen

During the 1996-97 school year, 63 one-teacher primary schools were identified in Great Britain and 54 of these were surveyed. Three of the schools surveyed were in England, 47 in Scotland, and 4 in Wales. The majority of teachers in these schools were female, married, and 40-49 years old; had over 20 years teaching experience, with 5-15 years in…

Time trends in HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance mutation frequency in Poland

PubMed Central

Parczewski, Milosz; Witak-Jedra, Magdalena; Maciejewska, Katarzyna; Bociaga-Jasik, Monika; Skwara, Pawel; Garlicki, Aleksander; Grzeszczuk, Anna; Rogalska, Magdalena; Jankowska, Maria; Lemanska, Malgorzata; Hlebowicz, Maria; Baralkiewicz, Grazyna; Mozer-Lisewska, Iwona; Mazurek, Renata; Lojewski, Wladyslaw; Grabczewska, Edyta; Olczak, Anita; Jablonowska, Elzbieta; Rymer, Weronika; Szymczak, Aleksandra; Szetela, Bartosz; Gasiorowski, Jacek; Knysz, Brygida; Urbanska, Anna; Leszczyszyn-Pynka, Magdalena

2014-01-01

Introduction In Poland, the HIV epidemic has shifted recently from being predominantly related to injection drug use (IDU) to being driven by transmissions among men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM). The number of new HIV cases has increased in the recent years, while no current data on the transmitted drug resistance associated mutations (tDRM) frequency trend over time are available from 2010. In this study, we analyze the temporal trends in the spread of tDRM from 2008 to 2013. Materials and Methods Partial pol sequences from 833 antiretroviral treatment-naive individuals of European descent (Polish origin) linked to care in 9 of 17 Polish HIV treatment centres were analyzed. Drug resistance interpretation was performed according to WHO surveillance recommendations, subtyping with REGA genotyping 2.0 tool. Time trends were examined for the frequency of t-DRM across subtypes and transmission groups using logistic regression (R statistical platform, v. 3.1.0). Results Frequency of tDRM proved stable over time, with mutation frequency change from 11.3% in 2008 to 8.3% in 2013 [OR: 0.91 (95% CI 0.80–1,05), p=0.202] (Figure 1a). Also, no significant differences over time were noted for the subtype B (decrease from 8.4% 2008 to 6.2% in 2013 [OR: 0.94 (95% CI 0.79–1.11), p=0.45] and across non-B variants [change from 22.6% 2008 to 23.1% in 2013, OR: 0.94 (95% CI 0.75–1.19), p=0.62]. When patient groups were stratified according to transmission route, in MSM there was a trend for a NNRTI t-DRM decrease (from 6.8% 2008 to 1% in 2013, OR: 0.61 (95% CI 0.34–1.02), p=0.0655, slope −0.74%/year) (Figure 1b), related to the subtype B infected MSM (decrease from 7% 2008 to 1% in 2013, OR: 0.61 (95% CI 0.34–1.03), p=0.0662, slope −0.75%/year). Overall tDRM frequency decrease was also noted for the heterosexually infected patients [from 17.6% 2008 to 10.3% in 2013, OR: 0.83 (95% CI 0.67–1.02, p=0.077, slope −2.041%/year)] but did not associate with drug class (Figure

Time trends in HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance mutation frequency in Poland.

PubMed

Parczewski, Milosz; Witak-Jedra, Magdalena; Maciejewska, Katarzyna; Bociaga-Jasik, Monika; Skwara, Pawel; Garlicki, Aleksander; Grzeszczuk, Anna; Rogalska, Magdalena; Jankowska, Maria; Lemanska, Malgorzata; Hlebowicz, Maria; Baralkiewicz, Grazyna; Mozer-Lisewska, Iwona; Mazurek, Renata; Lojewski, Wladyslaw; Grabczewska, Edyta; Olczak, Anita; Jablonowska, Elzbieta; Rymer, Weronika; Szymczak, Aleksandra; Szetela, Bartosz; Gasiorowski, Jacek; Knysz, Brygida; Urbanska, Anna; Leszczyszyn-Pynka, Magdalena

2014-01-01

In Poland, the HIV epidemic has shifted recently from being predominantly related to injection drug use (IDU) to being driven by transmissions among men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM). The number of new HIV cases has increased in the recent years, while no current data on the transmitted drug resistance associated mutations (tDRM) frequency trend over time are available from 2010. In this study, we analyze the temporal trends in the spread of tDRM from 2008 to 2013. Partial pol sequences from 833 antiretroviral treatment-naive individuals of European descent (Polish origin) linked to care in 9 of 17 Polish HIV treatment centres were analyzed. Drug resistance interpretation was performed according to WHO surveillance recommendations, subtyping with REGA genotyping 2.0 tool. Time trends were examined for the frequency of t-DRM across subtypes and transmission groups using logistic regression (R statistical platform, v. 3.1.0). Frequency of tDRM proved stable over time, with mutation frequency change from 11.3% in 2008 to 8.3% in 2013 [OR: 0.91 (95% CI 0.80-1,05), p=0.202] (Figure 1a). Also, no significant differences over time were noted for the subtype B (decrease from 8.4% 2008 to 6.2% in 2013 [OR: 0.94 (95% CI 0.79-1.11), p=0.45] and across non-B variants [change from 22.6% 2008 to 23.1% in 2013, OR: 0.94 (95% CI 0.75-1.19), p=0.62]. When patient groups were stratified according to transmission route, in MSM there was a trend for a NNRTI t-DRM decrease (from 6.8% 2008 to 1% in 2013, OR: 0.61 (95% CI 0.34-1.02), p=0.0655, slope -0.74%/year) (Figure 1b), related to the subtype B infected MSM (decrease from 7% 2008 to 1% in 2013, OR: 0.61 (95% CI 0.34-1.03), p=0.0662, slope -0.75%/year). Overall tDRM frequency decrease was also noted for the heterosexually infected patients [from 17.6% 2008 to 10.3% in 2013, OR: 0.83 (95% CI 0.67-1.02, p=0.077, slope -2.041%/year)] but did not associate with drug class (Figure 1c). In IDUs, the trends in t-DRM frequency were not

Future Declines of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England and Wales Could Counter the Burden of Population Ageing

PubMed Central

Guzman Castillo, Maria; Gillespie, Duncan O. S.; Allen, Kirk; Bandosz, Piotr; Schmid, Volker; Capewell, Simon; O’Flaherty, Martin

2014-01-01

Background Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a major cause of mortality in the United Kingdom. Yet predictions of future CHD mortality are potentially problematic due to population ageing and increase in obesity and diabetes. Here we explore future projections of CHD mortality in England & Wales under two contrasting future trend assumptions. Methods In scenario A, we used the conventional counterfactual scenario that the last-observed CHD mortality rates from 2011 would persist unchanged to 2030. The future number of deaths was calculated by applying those rates to the 2012–2030 population estimates. In scenario B, we assumed that the recent falling trend in CHD mortality rates would continue. Using Lee-Carter and Bayesian Age Period Cohort (BAPC) models, we projected the linear trends up to 2030. We validate our methods using past data to predict mortality from 2002–2011. Then, we computed the error between observed and projected values. Results In scenario A, assuming that 2011 mortality rates stayed constant by 2030, the number of CHD deaths would increase 62% or approximately 39,600 additional deaths. In scenario B, assuming recent declines continued, the BAPC model (the model with lowest error) suggests the number of deaths will decrease by 56%, representing approximately 36,200 fewer deaths by 2030. Conclusions The decline in CHD mortality has been reasonably continuous since 1979, and there is little reason to believe it will soon halt. The commonly used assumption that mortality will remain constant from 2011 therefore appears slightly dubious. By contrast, using the BAPC model and assuming continuing mortality falls offers a more plausible prediction of future trends. Thus, despite population ageing, the number of CHD deaths might halve again between 2011 and 2030. This has implications for how the potential benefits of future cardiovascular strategies might best be calculated and presented. PMID:24918442

FIRE STUDIES IN MALLEE (EUCALYPTUS SPP.) COMMUNITIES OF WESTERN NEW SOUTH WALES: SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL FLUXES IN SOIL CHEMISTRY AND SOIL BIOLOGY FOLLOWING PRESCRIBED FIRE.

EPA Science Inventory

The effects of prescribed fires on nutrient pools, soil-organisms, and vegetation patch dynamics were studied in three semi-arid mallee shrublands in western New South Wales. Repeated sampling of surface soil strata (0-2 and 2-4 cm) was undertaken at strategic times (immediately ...

Classification and evaluation of the functional results of replanted parts of the hand at the Prince of Wales Hospital and the Prince of Wales Children's Hospital: 1984 to 1988.

PubMed

Milroy, B C; Sackelariou, R P; Lendvay, P G; Baldwin, M R; McGlynn, M

1991-01-01

This paper describes a simple method of classification and evaluation of the functional results of replanted and revascularized parts in the hand. The results are presented in graphic form and have been analyzed to correlate various factors: injured part, cause, and zone (level) of injury. The type of injury, ischemic time and age have been studied in more detail to determine their influence of the final functional result. The series contains 187 amputated and devascularized parts of the hand in 119 patients who have undergone surgery at the Prince of Wales Hospital from 1984 through 1988. The length of cold or warm ischemic times, up to 16 hours in this series, while not affecting survival of the amputated part, does adversely affect the functional result. The survival rate of replanted parts in children was significantly less favorable than in adults, but the functional results were uniformly superior.

Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.

1995-05-01

The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of

Barriers to the use of Information and Communication Technology by occupational therapists working in a rural area of New South Wales, Australia.

PubMed

Chedid, Rebecca Jean; Dew, Angela; Veitch, Craig

2013-06-01

This qualitative study formed part of a large-scale, multi-phase study into the delivery of therapy services to people with a disability, living in one rural area of New South Wales, Australia. The study's purpose was to identify the impact of Information and Communication Technology on the workforce practices of occupational therapists' working in a rural area of New South Wales. Individual semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with 13 occupational therapists working in disability, health and private practice in a rural area of New South Wales. Participants were asked about access to, skills and limitations of using Information and Communication Technology. A modified grounded theory approach, based on thematic analysis and constant comparison, was used to analyse the interview transcripts. This study found widespread use of technology by rurally based occupational therapists working in the disability sector in New South Wales. However, Information and Communication Technology was primarily used for client contact, professional development and professional networking rather than therapy provision. The study identified individual, workplace and community barriers to greater uptake of Information and Communication Technology by this group. The individual barriers included: age cohort, knowledge and personal preferences. The workplace barriers included: support and training and availability of resources. The community barriers included: infrastructure and perceptions of clients' acceptance. The potential exists for Information and Communication Technology to supplement face-to-face therapy provision, enhance access to professional development and reduce professional isolation thereby addressing the rural challenges of large distances, travel times and geographic isolation. To overcome these challenges, individual, workplace and community Information and Communication Technology barriers should be addressed concurrently. © 2012 The Authors Australian

University Patenting in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: A Comparative Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beale, Andrew; Blackaby, David; Mainwaring, Lynn

2008-01-01

Using data on the patent portfolios of UK universities, the paper compares the levels of patenting activity (filings), success (grants) and quality (patents with commercial co-assignees and patent citations) at Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish institutions. Patent activity, per researcher, in Wales is on a par with that in Scotland and about…

An Alternative Reading of Modern Religious Education in England and Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnes, L. Philip

2009-01-01

This paper challenges the overly positive image of the contribution made by religious education in England and Wales to the attainment of liberal educational aims that was recently presented in this journal, in the context of a review symposium on a "festschrift" celebrating the work and achievements of the influential British religious…

Approaches to Psychological Assessment by Educational Psychologists in England and Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woods, Kevin; Farrell, Peter

2006-01-01

This article reports on the findings of a questionnaire survey of 142 educational psychologists from England and Wales on their approach to the assessment of children with learning and behavioural problems. Participants were asked to report on the frequency with which they used a variety of approaches to assessment, including interviews with…

The Effects of School Holidays on Transmission of Varicella Zoster Virus, England and Wales, 1967–2008

PubMed Central

Jackson, Charlotte; Mangtani, Punam; Fine, Paul; Vynnycky, Emilia

2014-01-01

Background Changes in children’s contact patterns between termtime and school holidays affect the transmission of several respiratory-spread infections. Transmission of varicella zoster virus (VZV), the causative agent of chickenpox, has also been linked to the school calendar in several settings, but temporal changes in the proportion of young children attending childcare centres may have influenced this relationship. Methods We used two modelling methods (a simple difference equations model and a Time series Susceptible Infectious Recovered (TSIR) model) to estimate fortnightly values of a contact parameter (the per capita rate of effective contact between two specific individuals), using GP consultation data for chickenpox in England and Wales from 1967–2008. Results The estimated contact parameters were 22–31% lower during the summer holiday than during termtime. The relationship between the contact parameter and the school calendar did not change markedly over the years analysed. Conclusions In England and Wales, reductions in contact between children during the school summer holiday lead to a reduction in the transmission of VZV. These estimates are relevant for predicting how closing schools and nurseries may affect an outbreak of an emerging respiratory-spread pathogen. PMID:24932994

Onabotulinum toxin A dosage trends over time for adductor spasmodic dysphonia: A 15-year experience.

PubMed

Tang, Christopher G; Novakovic, Daniel; Mor, Niv; Blitzer, Andrew

2016-03-01

Although onabotulinum neurotoxin A (BoNTA) has been used for over three decades for the treatment of adductor spasmodic dysphonia, no study has been performed to look at the trend of BoNTA dosages across time. The goal of this study is to evaluate the dosage trends to determine if the dosage necessary for voice improvement in patients increases over time. Charts were reviewed for patients with 15 years or more of experience. Linear regression analysis was performed to determine correlation coefficients and trends. Fifty-five patients receiving BoNTA injections by the senior author (a.b.) for over 15 years were evaluated. Thirty-nine patients (82% female) met inclusion criteria. Patients received injections over an average of 18.6 years ± 1.36 years, with the longest follow-up of 21.5 years. Of 39 patients, 16 (41%) had a negative correlation coefficient (Pearson's r) suggesting a decrease over time, whereas 23 (59%) had a positive correlation coefficient suggesting an increase over time. The mean correlation coefficient was 0.139 ± 0.534 and P < 0.05 in 19 patients and P > 0.05 in 20 patients. R(2) for all patients were less than 0.75. Onabotulinum neurotoxin A injection dosage trends vary depending on the individual over time. Overall, the dose range appears to be stable in the majority of patients, suggesting that tolerance does not play a significant part in dose variation over time. 4. Laryngoscope, 126:678-681, 2016. © 2015 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Serials Solutions and LinkFinderPlus at the University of Wales Swansea

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Andrew; Smyth, Neil

2005-01-01

Purpose: To provide practical information on two electronic journal-related products implemented in Library and Information Services at University of Wales Swansea. Design/methodology/approach: An overview is provided of the evaluation of electronic journal management products undertaken and subsequent implementation. Findings: Serials Solutions…

COVER (cover of vaccination evaluated rapidly): description of the England and Wales scheme.

PubMed

Begg, N T; Gill, O N; White, J M

1989-03-01

The COVER scheme, a method for the rapid evaluation of vaccine coverage in England and Wales, is described. The primary aim of the scheme is to improve cover by providing health district vaccination programme coordinators with relevant timely information. Quarterly data were obtained from, analysed and promptly fed back to, 126 health districts on cohorts of children who had recently attained the target ages for receiving the selected sentinel vaccines; 18 months for third diphtheria and third pertussis and 2 years for measles. Although the data suggested that vaccination cover is improving, national performance still falls well short of 90%, the 1990 target set by the World Health Organisation for countries in Europe.

Meta-epidemiologic study showed frequent time trends in summary estimates from meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies.

PubMed

Cohen, Jérémie F; Korevaar, Daniël A; Wang, Junfeng; Leeflang, Mariska M; Bossuyt, Patrick M

2016-09-01

To evaluate changes over time in summary estimates from meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies. We included 48 meta-analyses from 35 MEDLINE-indexed systematic reviews published between September 2011 and January 2012 (743 diagnostic accuracy studies; 344,015 participants). Within each meta-analysis, we ranked studies by publication date. We applied random-effects cumulative meta-analysis to follow how summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity evolved over time. Time trends were assessed by fitting a weighted linear regression model of the summary accuracy estimate against rank of publication. The median of the 48 slopes was -0.02 (-0.08 to 0.03) for sensitivity and -0.01 (-0.03 to 0.03) for specificity. Twelve of 96 (12.5%) time trends in sensitivity or specificity were statistically significant. We found a significant time trend in at least one accuracy measure for 11 of the 48 (23%) meta-analyses. Time trends in summary estimates are relatively frequent in meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies. Results from early meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies should be considered with caution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The law concerning the conduct of lineups in England and Wales: how well does it satisfy the recommendations of the American Psychology-Law Society?

PubMed

Kebbell, M R

2000-06-01

Four rules minimize the likelihood of a false conviction resulting from the misidentification of a suspect from a lineup: (1) The person conducting the lineup should not know which member of the lineup is the suspect. (2) The eyewitness should be warned that the criminal might not be present. (3) Foils should be selected based on the eyewitness's verbal description of the criminal. (4) Confidence should be recorded at the time of identification. In this paper the relevant law relating to lineups in England and Wales is outlined and the extent to which they satisfy the four rules is reviewed. It is concluded that the way in which lineups are conducted in England and Wales would, with minor modifications, satisfy the four rules, and this demonstrates that the rules can be applied practically.

Ozone trends over the United States at different times of day

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, J.; Yan, Y.

2017-12-01

In the United States, the decline of summertime daytime peak ozone in the last 20 years has been clearly connected to reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Yet questions remain on how and through what mechanisms ozone at other times of day have changed over the recent decades. Here we analyze the interannual variability and trends of ozone at different hours of day, using observations from about 1000 US sites during 1990-2014. We find a clear diurnal cycle both in the magnitude of ozone trends and in the relative importance of climate variability versus anthropogenic emissions to ozone changes. Interannual climate variability has mainly been associated with the de-trended fluctuation in the US annual daytime ozone over 1990-2014, with a much smaller effect on the nighttime ozone. Reductions in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides have led to substantial growth in the US annual average nighttime ozone due to reduced ozone titration, while the summertime daytime ozone has declined. Environmental policymaking might consider further improvements to reduce ozone levels at night and other non-peak hours.

Laying the Foundations for Physical Literacy in Wales: The Contribution of the Foundation Phase to the Development of Physical Literacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wainwright, Nalda; Goodway, Jackie; Whitehead, Margaret; Williams, Andy; Kirk, David

2018-01-01

Background: The Foundation Phase in Wales is a play-based curriculum for pupils aged 3-7 years old. Children learn through more holistic areas of learning in place of traditional subjects. As such, the subject of physical education in its traditional form no longer exists for pupils under the age of 7 in Wales. In light of the role of physical…

Implementing Curriculum Reform in Wales: The Case of the Foundation Phase

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taylor, Chris; Rhys, Mirain; Waldron, Sam

2016-01-01

The Foundation Phase is a Welsh Government flagship policy of early years education (for 3-7 year-old children) in Wales. Marking a radical departure from the more formal, competency-based approach associated with the previous Key Stage 1 National Curriculum, it advocates a developmental, experiential, play-based approach to teaching and learning.…

Euthanasia: a summary of the law in England and Wales.

PubMed

Simillis, Constantinos

2008-07-01

When medical treatment becomes futile, or the patient's suffering is intractable, doctors face the agonising dilemma of whether to proceed with euthanasia. It is important for a doctor to be familiar with the law surrounding euthanasia, in order to avoid prosecution. This paper explores the law in England and Wales regarding the different categories of euthanasia: voluntary euthanasia, nonvoluntary euthanasia, passive euthanasia, and active euthanasia.

The Work-Study Relationship: Experiences of Full-Time University Students Undertaking Part-Time Employment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hall, Ralph

2010-01-01

Work and study commitments of full-time undergraduate students at the University of New South Wales were investigated in four surveys conducted in 1994, 1999, 2006 and 2009. Respondents to the surveys reported the amount of time they spent during term time in paid employment, studying outside of formal class hours and in leisure activities (1999…

Cost per incident of alcohol-related crime in New South Wales.

PubMed

Byrnes, Joshua M; Doran, Christopher M; Shakeshaft, Anthony P

2012-11-01

The purpose of this paper is to provide a per incident of crime cost measure for New South Wales that is suitable for the use within cost-effectiveness studies of interventions aimed at reducing the burden of alcohol. This paper seeks to quantify the individual cost of an assault, property damage, sexual offence and disorderly conduct in New South Wales. Costs regarding the criminal act, police involvement, prosecution in criminal courts and incarceration are estimated and then using a four-stage probability analysis, the expected cost per incident is calculated. It is found that expected cost per incident for assault, sexual offence, property damage and disorderly conduct (in 2006 dollar values) is $3982, $5976, $1166 and $501 respectively. A large total cost figure is a powerful policy motivator; however, for the purpose of economic analysis it is often more useful to estimate the per incident cost. This research furthers the existing research on cost of crime estimates and facilitates future cost-effectiveness and other economic analysis of interventions that reduce alcohol-related crime. © 2012 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Indigenous Gambling Motivations, Behaviour and Consequences in Northern New South Wales, Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breen, Helen M.; Hing, Nerilee; Gordon, Ashley

2011-01-01

Against a background of public health, we sought to examine and explain gambling behaviours, motivations and consequences of Indigenous Australians in northern New South Wales. Adhering to national Aboriginal and ethical guidelines and using qualitative methods, 169 Indigenous Australians were interviewed individually and in small groups using…

HYPE: a WFD tool for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends in groundwater time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Benjamin; Croiset, Nolwenn; Laurence, Gourcy

2014-05-01

The Water Framework Directive 2006/11/CE (WFD) on the protection of groundwater against pollution and deterioration asks Member States to identify significant and sustained upward trends in all bodies or groups of bodies of groundwater that are characterised as being at risk in accordance with Annex II to Directive 2000/60/EC. The Directive indicates that the procedure for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends must be based on a statistical method. Moreover, for significant increases of concentrations of pollutants, trend reversals are identified as being necessary. This means to be able to identify significant trend reversals. A specific tool, named HYPE, has been developed in order to help stakeholders working on groundwater trend assessment. The R encoded tool HYPE provides statistical analysis of groundwater time series. It follows several studies on the relevancy of the use of statistical tests on groundwater data series (Lopez et al., 2011) and other case studies on the thematic (Bourgine et al., 2012). It integrates the most powerful and robust statistical tests for hydrogeological applications. HYPE is linked to the French national database on groundwater data (ADES). So monitoring data gathered by the Water Agencies can be directly processed. HYPE has two main modules: - a characterisation module, which allows to visualize time series. HYPE calculates the main statistical characteristics and provides graphical representations; - a trend module, which identifies significant breaks, trends and trend reversals in time series, providing result table and graphical representation (cf figure). Additional modules are also implemented to identify regional and seasonal trends and to sample time series in a relevant way. HYPE has been used successfully in 2012 by the French Water Agencies to satisfy requirements of the WFD, concerning characterization of groundwater bodies' qualitative status and evaluation of the risk of non-achievement of

Fitness to stand trial, human rights and possibilities from England and Wales.

PubMed

Stewart, Jeanette; Woodward, Mary; Hepner, Flana

2015-06-01

The capacity of individuals with disability, including cognitive or mental health impairments, to access justice on an equal basis has been considered recently in several Australian jurisdictions. Impairments can render individuals vulnerable in the legal system, affecting their reliability as a witness or their fitness to be tried, especially when limited support is available to help these individuals meet the test and criteria for fitness to stand trial. This article considers the situation in Australia in light of human rights perspectives and compares it with the England and Wales approach where special support measures have been introduced to help individuals access justice. The article recommends that better support measures be introduced in Australia that would be consistent with a human rights framework calling for support to enable individuals with disability to access justice. In particular, the introduction of intermediaries, as used in England and Wales, would go some way towards helping vulnerable individuals to access justice.

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

PubMed

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-09-01

Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

Time Trends in Reported Autism Spectrum Disorders in Israel, 1986-2005

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gal, Gilad; Abiri, Lili; Reichenberg, Abraham; Gabis, Lidia; Gross, Raz

2012-01-01

Reports indicate sharp increase in prevalence of autism spectrum disorders (ASD). We aimed to assess the time trend in prevalence of ASD in Israel and describe demographic characteristics of the registered cases. We reviewed the autism registry of the Israeli Ministry of Social Affairs which includes 4,709 cases and identified 4,138 cases born…

The cost of teaching an intern in New South Wales.

PubMed

Oates, R Kim; Goulston, Kerry J; Bingham, Craig M; Dent, Owen F

2014-02-03

To determine the cost of formal and informal teaching specifically provided for interns and to determine how much of an intern's time is spent in these activities. Costs of formal teaching for 2012 were obtained from the New South Wales Health Education and Training Institute (HETI) and costs of informal teaching by a survey of all interns in a random sample of prevocational networks. The cost of formal intern education provided by HETI; the number of hours of formal teaching provided to interns in hospital; intern estimates of the amount of non-timetabled teaching received in a typical week. The cost of formal teaching was $11 892 per intern per year and the cost of informal teaching was $2965 per intern per year (survey response rate, 63%) - a total of $14 857. Interns spent 2 hours per week in formal teaching and 28 minutes per week in informal teaching, representing 6.2% of a 40-hour week. The time of professionals paid by NSW Health represents most of the expenditure on teaching interns. An increase in time spent on intern teaching beyond the current 6.2% of an intern's 40-hour week would be an investment in better health care.

Variations in schools' commitment to health and implementation of health improvement activities: a cross-sectional study of secondary schools in Wales.

PubMed

Moore, Graham F; Littlecott, Hannah J; Fletcher, Adam; Hewitt, Gillian; Murphy, Simon

2016-02-10

Interventions to improve young people's health are most commonly delivered via schools. While young people attending the lowest socioeconomic status (SES) schools report poorer health profiles, no previous studies have examined whether there is an 'inverse care law' in school health improvement activity (i.e., whether schools in more affluent areas deliver more health improvement). Nor have other factors that may explain variations, such as leadership of health improvement activities, been examined at a population level. This paper examines variability in delivery of health improvement actions among secondary schools in Wales, and whether variability is linked to organisational commitment to health, socioeconomic status and school size. Of the 82 schools participating in the 2013/14 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) survey in Wales, 67 completed a questionnaire on school health improvement delivery structures and health improvement actions within their school. Correlational analyses explore associations of delivery of health improvement activity among schools in Wales with organisational commitment to health, socioeconomic context and school size. There is substantial variability among schools in organisational commitment to health, with pupil emotional health identified as a priority by 52 % of schools, and physical health by 43 %. Approximately half (49 %) report written action plans for pupil health. Based on composite measures, the quantity of school health improvement activity was greater in less affluent schools and schools reporting greater commitment to health. There was a consistent though non-significant trend toward more health improvement activity in larger schools. In multivariate analysis deprivation (OR = 1.06; 95 % CI = 1.01 to 1.12) and organisational commitment to health were significant independent predictors of the quantity of health improvement (OR = 1.60; 95 % CI = 1.15 to 2.22). There is no evidence of an 'inverse care law' in

Spatial dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England, Wales and the United States.

PubMed

Eggo, Rosalind M; Cauchemez, Simon; Ferguson, Neil M

2011-02-06

There is still limited understanding of key determinants of spatial spread of influenza. The 1918 pandemic provides an opportunity to elucidate spatial determinants of spread on a large scale. To better characterize the spread of the 1918 major wave, we fitted a range of city-to-city transmission models to mortality data collected for 246 population centres in England and Wales and 47 cities in the US. Using a gravity model for city-to-city contacts, we explored the effect of population size and distance on the spread of disease and tested assumptions regarding density dependence in connectivity between cities. We employed Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate parameters of the model for population, infectivity, distance and density dependence. We inferred the most likely transmission trees for both countries. For England and Wales, a model that estimated the degree of density dependence in connectivity between cities was preferable by deviance information criterion comparison. Early in the major wave, long distance infective interactions predominated, with local infection events more likely as the epidemic became widespread. For the US, with fewer more widely dispersed cities, statistical power was lacking to estimate population size dependence or the degree of density dependence, with the preferred model depending on distance only. We find that parameters estimated from the England and Wales dataset can be applied to the US data with no likelihood penalty.

The Contribution of the New South Wales Primary Schools Sports Association towards Developing Talent in Australian 12-Year-Old Female Swimmers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Light, Richard

2012-01-01

This article reports on a case study that inquired into the influence of the New South Wales Primary Schools Sports Association competitive swimming structure on the development of talented 12-year old female swimmers. The study focused on ten 12-year old girls in the New South Wales team that contested the 2009 national swimming championships…

Time trends in physical activity from 1982 to 2012 in Finland.

PubMed

Borodulin, K; Harald, K; Jousilahti, P; Laatikainen, T; Männistö, S; Vartiainen, E

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine population trends from 1982 to 2012 in Finland for leisure time physical activity (LTPA), commuting physical activity (CPA), occupational physical activity (OPA), and total physical activity. Furthermore, time trends in physical activity by educational levels and body mass index (BMI) categories were explored. Data were collected in independent cross-sectional population surveys, implemented every 5 years from 1982 to 2012. The data comprised 21,903 men and 24,311 women. Participants underwent a health examination and filled in questionnaires. Information on LTPA, CPA, and OPA was used both separately and combined to create an index of total physical activity. Between 1982 and 2012, high LTPA has increased in men (from 21% to 33%) and women (from 12% to 27%). High CPA and high OPA have decreased in men (from 17% to 12% and from 48% to 36%, respectively) and women (from 30% to 20% and from 26% to 21%, respectively). Total physical activity has remained fairly stable. Differences by education and BMI have increased, particularly for LTPA. Marked changes in physical activity have taken place over time. Differences in LTPA and OPA have grown wider across educational groups and BMI categories. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sustainability of Curriculum Development for Enterprise Education: Observations on Cases from Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roffe, Ian

2010-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to examine the variety of approaches to curriculum development for enterprise education developed for schools, further, and higher education under an Entrepreneurship Action Plan in Wales and to consider the sustainability issues for delivery in these sectors. Design/methodology/approach: This investigation adopted a case…

From Assimilation to Anti-Racism: Changing Educational Policies in England and Wales.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watson, J. K. P.

1988-01-01

Although multicultural education has long been touted as an important educational goal in schools in England and Wales, very little has actually changed. Some individuals purporting to support anti-racist education and some governmental policies have actually undermined the little progress made toward preparing teachers and students for a…

Physical activity and screen time: trends in U.S. children aged 9-13 years, 2002-2006.

PubMed

Huhman, Marian; Lowry, Richard; Lee, Sarah M; Fulton, Janet E; Carlson, Susan A; Patnode, Carrie D

2012-05-01

We examined trends of physical activity and screen time among nationally representative samples of children aged 9-13 years to explore whether children overall are becoming less physically active and less likely to be in compliance with screen time recommendations. We analyzed Youth Media Campaign Longitudinal Survey data for trends and demographic patterns of free time and organized physical activity, and hours and minutes of watching television and playing video or computer games. Child-parent dyads for 2002 (N = 3114), 2004 (N = 5177), and 2006 (N = 1200) were analyzed. On the day before the interview, and for free time physical activity in the past week, children reported a significant increase in physical activity from 2002-2006. Screen time levels were stable overall; 76.4% of children met the recommendations of 2 hours or less of daily screen time. Levels of physical activity among U.S. children aged 9-13 years were stable, or levels slightly improved from 2002-2006. Except for some subgroup differences, trends for compliance with screen time recommendations were also stable from 2002-2006 for U.S. children aged 9-13 years.

A Spatial Dashboard for Alzheimer's Disease in New South Wales.

PubMed

Robertson, Hamish; Nicholas, Nick; Dhagat, Amit; Travaglia, Joanne

2017-01-01

This paper illustrates a proof of concept scenario for the application of comprehensive data visualisation methods in the rapidly changing aged care sector. The scenario we explored is population ageing and the dementias with an emphasis on the spatial effects of change over time at the Statistical Area 2 (SA2) level for the state of New South Wales. We did this using a combination of methods, culminating in the use of the Tableau software environment to explore the intersections of demography, epidemiology and their formal cost of care implications. In addition, we briefly illustrate how key infrastructure data can be included in the same data management context by showing how service providers can be integrated and mapped in conjunction with other analyses. This is an innovative and practical approach to some of the complex issues already faced in the health and aged care sectors which can only become more pronounced as population ageing progresses.

PICKUP Wales, U.K. Assurance of Quality Vocational Continuing Education and Training.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Daniels, C. E. J.

The Professional, Industrial, and Commercial Updating Programme (PICKUP) of the United Kingdom is aimed at improving the performance of British industry through the colleges. In Wales, PICKUP is part of the Welsh Office Education Department. Various factors have encouraged educational institutions to take on PICKUP work: the Education Reform Act…

Analysis of reperfusion time trends in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction across New York State from 2004 to 2012.

PubMed

Al'Aref, Subhi J; Wong, S Chiu; Swaminathan, Rajesh V; McNair, Patrick; Feldman, Dmitriy N; Kim, Luke K; Singh, Harsimran S; Bergman, Geoffrey; Minutello, Robert M

2017-04-01

Registry-driven data have shown a significant decrease in door-to-balloon (DTB) times in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) receiving percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We sought to determine the trends in reperfusion times (symptom-onset to door (SOTD) and DTB times) in patients presenting with STEMI across New York State. We retrospectively examined 35,613 STEMI patients receiving PCI from 2004 to 2012 and compared median SOTD and DTB times across years. Patients with SOTD time >12h and DTB time >3h were excluded. There was a statistically significant trend towards shorter DTB times (median DTB time of 83min (IQR 53, 116) in 2004 to a median DTB time of 59min (IQR 40, 78) in 2012, P<0.01 for trend) and SOTD times (median SOTD time of 127min (IQR 64, 241) in 2004 to a median SOTD time of 116min (IQR 60, 205) in 2012, P<0.01 for trend). In subgroup analysis, demographics and the presence of co-morbid conditions did not influence the trend in reperfusion times. However, women had longer reperfusion times than men in 2012. After adjusting for confounding variables, DTB was a significant predictor of in-hospital mortality (HR=1.04 (per 10minutes), P<0.01). There was a significant decrease in reperfusion times from 2004 to 2012 in STEMI patients across New York State. This trend was significant regardless of the presence of co-morbid conditions, although a significant gap in reperfusion times persists between men and women. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

PubMed Central

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-01-01

Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

Time trends in intracranial bleeding associated with direct oral anticoagulants: a 5-year cohort study

PubMed Central

Hogg, Kerstin; Bahl, Bharat; Latrous, Meriem; Scaffidi Argentina, Sarina; Thompson, Jesse; Chatha, Aasil Ayyaz; Castellucci, Lana; Stiell, Ian G.

2015-01-01

Background: Over the past 5 years, dabigatran, rivaroxaban and apixaban were approved for stroke prevention. Phase III studies have shown a lower risk of intracranial bleeding with these direct oral anticoagulants than with warfarin; however, there is a lack of real-life data to validate this. We analyzed time trends in atraumatic intracranial bleeding from 2009 to 2013 among patients prescribed oral anticoagulants and those not prescribed oral anticoagulants. Methods: We used ICD-10-CA (enhanced Canadian version of the 10th revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems) codes to identify all patients with atraumatic intracranial bleeding who presented to our neurosurgical centre (serving a population of more than 1.2 million). Trained researchers extracted data on anticoagulant medications used in the week before diagnosis of the intracranial bleed. Provincial prescription data for oral anticoagulants were obtained from IMS Brogan CompuScript Market Dynamics. The primary outcome was the time trend in incident intracranial bleeds associated with oral anticoagulation during the period 2009-2013. The secondary outcomes were the time trend in intracranial bleeds not associated with oral anticoagulation and the provincial prescribing patterns for oral anticoagulants during the same period. Results: A total of 2050 patients presented with atraumatic intracranial bleeds during the study period. Of the 371 (18%) prescribed an anticoagulant in the week before presentation, 335 were prescribed an oral anticoagulant. There was an increasing time trend in intracranial bleeding associated with oral anticoagulants (p = 0.009; 6 additional events per year) and in intracranial bleeding not associated with oral anticoagulation (p = 0.06). During 2013, prescriptions for warfarin decreased to 70% of all oral anticoagulant prescriptions in the province, whereas those for dabigatran and rivaroxaban increased to 17% and 12

Proximity to coke works and hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular disease in England and Wales

PubMed Central

Aylin, P; Bottle, A; Wakefield, J; Jarup, L; Elliott, P

2001-01-01

BACKGROUND—The incidence of hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases in areas close to operating coke works in England and Wales was investigated.
METHODS—A small area study using distance from source as a proxy for exposure was undertaken in subjects aged 65 or over and children under 5 years within 7.5 km of four coke works (1991 estimated populations 87 760 and 43 932, respectively). The main outcome measures were emergency hospital admissions in 1992/3-1994/5 with a primary diagnosis of coronary heart disease (ICD 410-414), stroke (ICD 431-438), all respiratory diseases (ICD 460-519), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (ICD 491-492), and asthma (ICD 493) in those aged 65 or over, and all respiratory and asthma admissions in children under 5 years of age.
RESULTS—At age 65 or over the combined estimate of relative risk with proximity to coke works (per km) ranged from 0.99 (95% CI 0.90to 1.09) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to 1.03 (95% CI 0.94 to 1.13) for asthma. For children under 5 years the combined estimate of risk was 1.08 (95% CI 0.98 to 1.20) for all respiratory disease and 1.07 (95% CI 0.98 to 1.18) for asthma. There was evidence of significant heterogeneity in risk estimates between coke work groups, especially in children under 5 years (p<0.001 and p=0.004 for respiratory disease and asthma, respectively). For the Teesside coke works in North East England the relative risk with proximity (per km) was 1.09 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.12) for respiratory disease and 1.09 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.15) for asthma.
CONCLUSIONS—No evidence overall was found for an association between hospital admissions and living near operational coke works in England and Wales. Trends of a higher risk of hospital admission for respiratory disease and asthma among children with proximity to the Teesside plant require further investigation.

 PMID:11182017

Proximity to coke works and hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular disease in England and Wales.

PubMed

Aylin, P; Bottle, A; Wakefield, J; Jarup, L; Elliott, P

2001-03-01

The incidence of hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases in areas close to operating coke works in England and Wales was investigated. A small area study using distance from source as a proxy for exposure was undertaken in subjects aged 65 or over and children under 5 years within 7.5 km of four coke works (1991 estimated populations 87 760 and 43 932, respectively). The main outcome measures were emergency hospital admissions in 1992/3-1994/5 with a primary diagnosis of coronary heart disease (ICD 410-414), stroke (ICD 431-438), all respiratory diseases (ICD 460-519), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (ICD 491-492), and asthma (ICD 493) in those aged 65 or over, and all respiratory and asthma admissions in children under 5 years of age. At age 65 or over the combined estimate of relative risk with proximity to coke works (per km) ranged from 0.99 (95% CI 0.90 to 1.09) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to 1.03 (95% CI 0.94 to 1.13) for asthma. For children under 5 years the combined estimate of risk was 1.08 (95% CI 0.98 to 1.20) for all respiratory disease and 1.07 (95% CI 0.98 to 1.18) for asthma. There was evidence of significant heterogeneity in risk estimates between coke work groups, especially in children under 5 years (p<0.001 and p=0.004 for respiratory disease and asthma, respectively). For the Teesside coke works in North East England the relative risk with proximity (per km) was 1.09 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.12) for respiratory disease and 1.09 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.15) for asthma. No evidence overall was found for an association between hospital admissions and living near operational coke works in England and Wales. Trends of a higher risk of hospital admission for respiratory disease and asthma among children with proximity to the Teesside plant require further investigation.

Right care, right place, right time: improving the timeliness of health care in New South Wales through a public-private hospital partnership.

PubMed

Saunders, Carla; Carter, David J

2017-10-01

Objective The overall aim of the study was to investigate and assess the feasibility of improving the timeliness of public hospital care through a New South Wales (NSW)-wide public-private hospital partnership. Methods The study reviewed the academic and professional grey literature, and undertook exploratory analyses of secondary data acquired from two national health data repositories informing in-patient access and utilisation across NSW public and private hospitals. Results In 2014-15, the NSW public hospital system was unable to deliver care within the medically recommended time frame for over 27400 people who were awaiting elective surgery. Available information indicates that the annual commissioning of 15% of public in-patient rehabilitation bed days to the private hospital system would potentially free up enough capacity in the NSW public hospital system to enable elective surgery for all public patients within recommended time frames. Conclusions The findings of the study justify a strategic whole-of-health system approach to reducing public patient wait times in NSW and highlight the need for research efforts aimed at securing a better understanding of available hospital capacity across the public and private hospital systems, and identifying and testing workable models that improve the timeliness of public hospital care. What is known about the topic? There are very few studies available to inform public-private hospital service partnerships and the opportunities available to improve timely health care access through such partnerships. What does this paper add? This paper has the potential to open and prompt timely discussion and debate, and generate further fundamental investigation, on public-private hospital service partnerships in Australia where opportunity is available to address elective surgery wait times in a reliable and effective manner. What are the implications for practitioners? The NSW Ministry of Health and its Local Health Districts

Preventing violence-related injuries in England and Wales: a panel study examining the impact of on-trade and off-trade alcohol prices.

PubMed

Page, Nicholas; Sivarajasingam, Vaseekaran; Matthews, Kent; Heravi, Saeed; Morgan, Peter; Shepherd, Jonathan

2017-02-01

To examine the influence of real on-trade and off-trade alcohol prices and socioeconomic and environmental factors on rates of violence-related emergency department (ED) attendances in England and Wales over an 8-year period. Anonymised injury data which included attendance date, age and gender of patients aged over 18 years who reported injury in violence were collected from a structured sample of 100 EDs across England and Wales between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2012. Alcohol prices and socioeconomic measures were obtained from the UK Office for National Statistics. Panel techniques were used to derive a statistical model. Real on-trade (β=-0.661, p<0.01) and off-trade (β=-0.277, p<0.05) alcohol prices were negatively related with rates of violence-related ED attendance among the adult population of England and Wales, after accounting for the effects of regional poverty, income inequality, youth spending power and seasonal effects. It is estimated that over 6000 fewer violence-related ED attendances per year in England and Wales would result from a 1% increase in both on-trade and off-trade alcohol prices above inflation. Of the variables studied, changes in regional poverty and income inequality had the greatest effect on violence-related ED attendances in England and Wales. Small increases in the price of alcohol, above inflation, in both markets, would substantially reduce the number of patients attending EDs for treatment of violence-related injuries in England and Wales. Reforming the current alcohol taxation system may be more effective at reducing violence-related injury than minimum unit pricing. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Hydrologic Response to Climate Change: Missing Precipitation Data Matters for Computed Timing Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniels, B.

2016-12-01

This work demonstrates the derivation of climate timing statistics and applying them to determine resulting hydroclimate impacts. Long-term daily precipitation observations from 50 California stations were used to compute climate trends of precipitation event Intensity, event Duration and Pause between events. Each precipitation event trend was then applied as input to a PRMS hydrology model which showed hydrology changes to recharge, baseflow, streamflow, etc. An important concern was precipitation uncertainty induced by missing observation values and causing errors in quantification of precipitation trends. Many standard statistical techniques such as ARIMA and simple endogenous or even exogenous imputation were applied but failed to help resolve these uncertainties. What helped resolve these uncertainties was use of multiple imputation techniques. This involved fitting of Weibull probability distributions to multiple imputed values for the three precipitation trends.Permutation resampling techniques using Monte Carlo processing were then applied to the multiple imputation values to derive significance p-values for each trend. Significance at the 95% level for Intensity was found for 11 of the 50 stations, Duration from 16 of the 50, and Pause from 19, of which 12 were 99% significant. The significance weighted trends for California are Intensity -4.61% per decade, Duration +3.49% per decade, and Pause +3.58% per decade. Two California basins with PRMS hydrologic models were studied: Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the central coast Soquel-Aptos. Each local trend was changed without changing the other trends or the total precipitation. Feather River Basin's critical supply to Lake Oroville and the State Water Project benefited from a total streamflow increase of 1.5%. The Soquel-Aptos Basin water supply was impacted by a total groundwater recharge decrease of -7.5% and streamflow decrease of -3.2%.

Time trends in age at onset of anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa.

PubMed

Favaro, Angela; Caregaro, Lorenza; Tenconi, Elena; Bosello, Romina; Santonastaso, Paolo

2009-12-01

This study aims to explore the time trends in age at onset of anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa. The sample was composed of 1,666 anorexia nervosa subjects and 793 bulimia nervosa subjects (according to DSM-IV criteria) without previous anorexia nervosa consecutively referred to our outpatient unit in the period between 1985 and 2008. Time trends in illness onset were analyzed according to the year of birth of subjects. In both anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa, age at onset showed a significant decrease according to year of birth. A regression model showed a significant independent effect of socioeconomic status, age at menarche, and number of siblings in predicting age at onset lower than 16 years. Age at onset of anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa is decreasing in younger generations. The implications of our findings in terms of long-term outcome remain to be understood. Biologic and sociocultural factors explaining this phenomenon need to be explored in future studies. Copyright 2009 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Trends and Variations in the Rates of Hospital Complications, Failure-to-Rescue and 30-Day Mortality in Surgical Patients in New South Wales, Australia, 2002-2009

PubMed Central

Ou, Lixin; Chen, Jack; Assareh, Hassan; Hollis, Stephanie J.; Hillman, Ken; Flabouris, Arthas

2014-01-01

Background Despite the increased acceptance of failure-to-rescue (FTR) as an important patient safety indicator (defined as the percentage of deaths among surgical patients with treatable complications), there has not been any large epidemiological study reporting FTR in an Australian setting nor any evaluation on its suitability as a performance indicator. Methods We conducted a population-based study on elective surgical patients from 82 public acute hospitals in New South Wales, Australia between 2002 and 2009, exploring the trends and variations in rates of hospital complications, FTR and 30-day mortality. We used Poisson regression models to derive relative risk ratios (RRs) after adjusting for a range of patient and hospital characteristics. Results The average rates of complications, FTR and 30-day mortality were 13.8 per 1000 admissions, 14.1% and 6.1 per 1000 admission, respectively. The rates of complications and 30-day mortality were stable throughout the study period however there was a significant decrease in FTR rate after 2006, coinciding with the establishment of national and state-level peak patient safety agencies. There were marked variations in the three rates within the top 20% of hospitals (best) and bottom 20% of hospitals (worst) for each of the four peer-hospital groups. The group comprising the largest volume hospitals (principal referral/teaching hospitals) had a significantly higher rate of FTR in comparison to the other three groups of smaller-sized peer hospital groups (RR = 0.78, 0.57, and 0.61, respectively). Adjusted rates of complications, FTR and 30-day mortality varied widely for individual surgical procedures between the best and worst quintile hospitals within the principal referral hospital group. Conclusions The decrease in FTR rate over the study period appears to be associated with a wide range of patient safety programs. The marked variations in the three rates between- and within- peer hospital groups highlight the

Speech and language therapy services to education in England and Wales.

PubMed

Lindsay, Geoff; Soloff, Nina; Law, James; Band, Sue; Peacey, Nick; Gascoigne, Marie; Radford, Julie

2002-01-01

Services for children with speech and language needs in England and Wales are in a period of change. The context is subject to major systemic pressures deriving from government policies. These include the development of inclusive education and encouragement of multiprofessional collaboration in policy development and practice ('joined up thinking'). In addition, structures at local level are changing with the establishment of unitary authorities and the change from Health Trusts to Primary Care Trusts. Professional practice is also changing with a shift from clinical to community settings for speech and language therapists working with children. The present study reports on a survey sponsored by the Department for Education and Employment, Department of Health and the Welsh Assembly to identify the nature of speech and language therapy (SLT) services provided to education in England and Wales. The sample comprised all SLT service managers (n = 133, response rate 74%). The results indicate that services vary greatly in size and in their SLT: child ratio, with a mean of one SLT to 4257 child population. The caseload was highest for the 5-10 age group, and service delivery was targeted at these children, with low levels of work with secondary aged pupils. Most provision in educational settings was made to mainstream schools, but the provision of SLT time per child was substantially higher in specialist language resources. Apart from the preschool phase, most SLT provision was for children with statements of special educational needs. Prioritization of service delivery was usually by severity of need. The provision of bilingual SLT services was very limited, with only 14.0 full-time equivalents SLTs fluent in a community language, other than Welsh, where proportionately availability was much greater. Most LEAs funded SLT posts, although these were usually employed as part of the SLT service, with only about 10% of LEAs employing SLTs direct. However, 55.5% of SLT

Trend analysis of time-series phenology of North America derived from satellite data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, B.C.

2006-01-01

Remote sensing information has been used in studies of the seasonal dynamics (phenology) of the land surface since the 1980s. While our understanding of remote sensing phenology is still in development, it is regarded as a key to understanding land-surface processes over large areas. Phenologic metrics, including start of season, end of season, duration of season, and seasonally integrated greenness, were derived from 8 km advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data over North America spanning the years 1982-2003. Trend analysis was performed on annual summaries of the metrics to determine areas with increasing or decreasing growing season trends for the time period under study. Results show a trend toward earlier starts of season in limited areas of the mixed boreal forest, and a trend toward later end of season in well-defined areas of New England and southeastern Canada. Results in Saskatchewan, Canada, include a trend toward longer duration of season over a well-defined area, principally as a result of regional changes in land use practices. Changing seasonality appears to be an integrated response to a complex of factors, including climate change, but also, in many places, changes in land use practices. Copyright ?? 2006 by V. H. Winston & Son, Inc. All rights reserved.

"Persons That Live Remote from London": Apothecaries and the Medical Marketplace in Seventeenth-and Eighteenth-Century Wales

PubMed Central

Withey, Alun

2011-01-01

Summary This article uses evidence from Welsh apothecary shops as a means to access the mechanisms of the "medical marketplace" in seventeenth- and eighteenth-century Wales. As a country physically remote from large urban medical centers, and with few large towns, Wales has often been overlooked in terms of medical commerce. Nevertheless, evidence suggests that Welsh apothecaries participated in broad and sophisticated networks of trade with London suppliers. Moreover, their shops contained a wide range of medicines from herbal simples to exotic ingredients and chemical preparations, highlighting the availability of such goods far from large urban centers. PMID:21804184

The relative risk of fatal poisoning by methadone or buprenorphine within the wider population of England and Wales

PubMed Central

Marteau, Dave

2015-01-01

Objective To examine the population-wide overdose risk emerging from the prescription of methadone and buprenorphine for opioid substitution treatment in England and Wales. Design Retrospective administrative data study. Setting National databases for England and Wales. Participants/cases Drug-related mortality data were drawn from the Office for National Statistics, and prescription data for methadone and buprenorphine were obtained from the National Health Service for the years 2007–2012. During this 6-year period, a total of 2366 methadone-related deaths and 52 buprenorphine-related deaths were registered, corresponding to 17 333 163 methadone and 2 602 374 buprenorphine prescriptions issued. The analysis encompassed poisoning deaths among members of the wider population of England and Wales who consumed, but were not prescribed these medications, in addition to patients prescribed methadone or buprenorphine. Main outcome measures Mortality risk: substance-specific overdose rate per 1000 prescriptions issued; relative risk ratio of methadone in relation to buprenorphine. Results During the years 2007–2012, the pooled overdose death rate was 0.137/1000 prescriptions of methadone, compared to 0.022/1000 prescriptions of buprenorphine (including buprenorphine-naloxone). The analysis generated a relative risk ratio of 6.23 (95% CI 4.79 to 8.10) of methadone in relation to buprenorphine. UK Borders Agency data were taken into consideration and revealed that only negligible amounts of methadone and buprenorphine were seized on entering UK territory between 2007 and 2012, suggesting domestic diversion. Conclusions Our analysis of the relative safety of buprenorphine and methadone for opioid substitution treatment reveals that buprenorphine is six times safer than methadone with regard to overdose risk among the general population. Clinicians should be aware of the increased risk of prescribing methadone, and tighter regulations are needed to prevent its

Trend analysis of long-term temperature time series in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohsin, Tanzina; Gough, William A.

2010-08-01

As the majority of the world’s population is living in urban environments, there is growing interest in studying local urban climates. In this paper, for the first time, the long-term trends (31-162 years) of temperature change have been analyzed for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Annual and seasonal time series for a number of urban, suburban, and rural weather stations are considered. Non-parametric statistical techniques such as Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation are used primarily for the assessing of the significance and detection of trends, and the sequential Mann test is used to detect any abrupt climate change. Statistically significant trends for annual mean and minimum temperatures are detected for almost all stations in the GTA. Winter is found to be the most coherent season contributing substantially to the increase in annual minimum temperature. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature suggest that the beginning of the increasing trend in Toronto started after the 1920s and then continued to increase to the 1960s. For all stations, there is a significant increase of annual and seasonal (particularly winter) temperatures after the 1980s. In terms of the linkage between urbanization and spatiotemporal thermal patterns, significant linear trends in annual mean and minimum temperature are detected for the period of 1878-1978 for the urban station, Toronto, while for the rural counterparts, the trends are not significant. Also, for all stations in the GTA that are situated in all directions except south of Toronto, substantial temperature change is detected for the periods of 1970-2000 and 1989-2000. It is concluded that the urbanization in the GTA has significantly contributed to the increase of the annual mean temperatures during the past three decades. In addition to urbanization, the influence of local climate, topography, and larger scale warming are incorporated in the analysis of the trends.

Inspiration, imagination and implementation: International Year of Light activities of the Photonics Academy of Wales at Bangor (PAWB)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, Ray; Shore, K. Alan

2016-09-01

Since the establishment of the Photonics Academy of Wales in 2005, several generations of participants have been encouraged to use their imagination in devising, designing and building novel photonics devices of benefit to society. In pursuing photonics projects within PAWB, the participants have gained a practical proficiency in photonics experimentation and photonics product design. The Photonics Academy of Wales @ Bangor ( PAWB) assumed responsibility for the coordination of a series of events in Wales, UK as part of global activities celebrating 2015 as the International Year of Light. PAWB has worked with several organisations and individuals to devise a programme of events which are focussed on conveying the significance of light and its technologies to a broad swathe of the population. These events take into account the bi-lingual nature of Wales with significant events being delivered in the Welsh language. Arrangement and delivery of the events has largely been undertaken on a voluntary basis albeit with some funding having been obtained from supportive bodies and organisations. The presentation will report on the events which were organised and also will present examples of novel photonics devices developed by students working with PAWB. Being aware of the importance of creating an on-going interest in the topics treated during the International Year of Light, some attention will also be given to legacy activities beyond 2015. A specific concern is the identification of effective mechanisms for engagement with photonics industry.

Trends in No Leisure-Time Physical Activity--United States, 1988-2010

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Latetia V.; Harris, Carmen D.; Carlson, Susan A.; Kruger, Judy; Fulton, Janet E.

2012-01-01

Purpose: The aim of this study was to examine trends in the prevalence of no leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) from 1988 to 2010. Method: Using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data, 35 states and the District of Columbia reported information on no LTPA from 1988 to 1994; all states reported no LTPA from 1996 to 2010. Results: No…

Historical Child Sexual Abuse in England and Wales: The Role of Historians

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bingham, Adrian; Delap, Lucy; Jackson, Louise; Settle, Louise

2016-01-01

This article reflects on methodological and ethical issues that have shaped a collaborative project which aims to chart social, legal and political responses to child sexual abuse in England and Wales across the twentieth century. The etymological problem of searching for child sexual abuse in the historical archive is discussed, given that the…

School Outcomes in New South Wales and Queensland: A Regression Discontinuity Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Paul W.; Voon, Derby

2014-01-01

This paper examines the differences in school (NAPLAN) outcomes between New South Wales and Queensland. It shows that there are pronounced differences in Year 3 NAPLAN results between these states, though these dissipate when later class years are considered. The reasons for these state effects in school outcomes are explored using an empirical…

Changes in Training Opportunities in South Wales, 1945-1998: The Views of Key Informants. Patterns of Participation in Adult Education and Training. Working Paper 12.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chambers, Paul; Gorard, Stephen; Fevre, Ralph; Rees, Gareth; Furlong, John

This study is part of a regional study in industrial South Wales on the determinants of participation and non-participation in post-compulsory education and training, with special reference to processes of change in the patterns of these determinants over time and to variations between geographical areas. The study combines analysis of secondary…

Comparative study of stock trend prediction using time delay, recurrent and probabilistic neural networks.

PubMed

Saad, E W; Prokhorov, D V; Wunsch, D C

1998-01-01

Three networks are compared for low false alarm stock trend predictions. Short-term trends, particularly attractive for neural network analysis, can be used profitably in scenarios such as option trading, but only with significant risk. Therefore, we focus on limiting false alarms, which improves the risk/reward ratio by preventing losses. To predict stock trends, we exploit time delay, recurrent, and probabilistic neural networks (TDNN, RNN, and PNN, respectively), utilizing conjugate gradient and multistream extended Kalman filter training for TDNN and RNN. We also discuss different predictability analysis techniques and perform an analysis of predictability based on a history of daily closing price. Our results indicate that all the networks are feasible, the primary preference being one of convenience.

Predicting the impact of measles vaccination in England and Wales: model validation and analysis of policy options.

PubMed Central

Babad, H. R.; Nokes, D. J.; Gay, N. J.; Miller, E.; Morgan-Capner, P.; Anderson, R. M.

1995-01-01

Measles incidence in England and Wales has fallen to an all-time low. Attention is now focused on preventing local outbreaks, and, in the long run, on the elimination of indigenous measles. A realistic age-structured (RAS) mathematical model of measles transmission is used to reconstruct the impact of measles vaccination in England and Wales from 1968 to the present and to evaluate the merits of future policy options. In general, the predictions of the model show good agreement with long-term age stratified case reports and seroprevalence surveys. The model underestimates the proportion of cases that are notified in 0-2-year-old children. However, recent work suggests a high degree of misdiagnosis in this age group. Projections on the basis of the existing vaccination strategy in the UK suggest that the present level of measles vaccine coverage will be insufficient to eliminate small seasonal outbreaks of measles. This result is, however, sensitive to the assumed level of vaccine efficacy. Explorations of a variety of changes to current vaccination strategy favour a 2-dose schedule with the second dose administered at age 4 years irrespective of vaccination history. A vaccination campaign in school-age children, to reduce deficits in herd immunity, would accelerate progress towards measles elimination. PMID:7705494

Predicting the impact of measles vaccination in England and Wales: model validation and analysis of policy options.

PubMed

Babad, H R; Nokes, D J; Gay, N J; Miller, E; Morgan-Capner, P; Anderson, R M

1995-04-01

Measles incidence in England and Wales has fallen to an all-time low. Attention is now focused on preventing local outbreaks, and, in the long run, on the elimination of indigenous measles. A realistic age-structured (RAS) mathematical model of measles transmission is used to reconstruct the impact of measles vaccination in England and Wales from 1968 to the present and to evaluate the merits of future policy options. In general, the predictions of the model show good agreement with long-term age stratified case reports and seroprevalence surveys. The model underestimates the proportion of cases that are notified in 0-2-year-old children. However, recent work suggests a high degree of misdiagnosis in this age group. Projections on the basis of the existing vaccination strategy in the UK suggest that the present level of measles vaccine coverage will be insufficient to eliminate small seasonal outbreaks of measles. This result is, however, sensitive to the assumed level of vaccine efficacy. Explorations of a variety of changes to current vaccination strategy favour a 2-dose schedule with the second dose administered at age 4 years irrespective of vaccination history. A vaccination campaign in school-age children, to reduce deficits in herd immunity, would accelerate progress towards measles elimination.

Factors influencing the time between onset of illness and specimen collection in the diagnosis of non-pregnancy associated listeriosis in England and Wales.

PubMed

Awofisayo-Okuyelu, Adedoyin; Verlander, Neville Q; Amar, Corinne; Elson, Richard; Grant, Kathie; Harris, John

2016-06-24

Listeriosis is an opportunistic bacterial infection caused by Listeria monocytogenes and predominantly affects people who are immunocompromised. Due to its severity and the population at risk, prompt clinical diagnosis and treatment of listeriosis is essential. A major step to making a clinical diagnosis is the collection of the appropriate specimen(s) for testing. This study explores factors that may influence the time between onset of illness and collection of specimen in order to inform clinical policy and develop necessary interventions. Enhanced surveillance data on non-pregnancy associated listeriosis in England and Wales between 2004 and 2013 were collected and analysed. The difference in days between onset of symptoms and collection of specimen was calculated and factors influencing the time difference were identified using a gamma regression model. The median number of days between onset of symptoms and collection of specimen was two days with 27.1 % of cases reporting one day between onset of symptoms and collection of specimen and 18.8 % of cases reporting more than seven days before collection of specimen. The median number of days between onset of symptoms and collection of specimen was shorter for cases infected with Listeria monocytogenes serogroup 1/2b (one day) and cases with an underlying condition (one day) compared with cases infected with serotype 4 (two days) and cases without underlying conditions (two days). Our study has shown that Listeria monocytogenes serotype and the presence of an underlying condition may influence the time between onset of symptoms and collection of specimen.

[Induced abortions among Spanish women in England and Wales (1974-1988)].

PubMed

Peiró, R; Colomer, C; Ashton, J; Alvarez-Dardet, C

1994-01-01

To assess the importance of travelling for abortion in Spanish women from 1974 to 1988, a descriptive epidemiologic study was undertaken, based on information from the United Kingdom Office for Population Censuses and Surveys. Additionally, the effect of the democratic restitution in Spain (1978) and of the passing of the Spanish abortion law in Spain is explored. During the study period, close to 200,000 Spanish women travelled to England and Wales to have an abortion. The annual figures range from 2,978 in 1974 to 22,002 in 1983. In 1988, in spite of the partial decriminalization of abortion in Spain, still 3,188 travelled to the UK for an abortion. In average, 1 out 35 Spanish women in fertile ages travelled to England and Wales for this reason in the study period. The likelihood was higher for the cohort of women born between 1955 and 1959, for which the risk was 4.5%. The proportional distribution by age shows that teenagers increased their relative importance from 9.3% in 1974 to 17% in 1988, suggesting less benefits for this age group than for older women from the democratization of the country and the abortion law.

Koi herpesvirus: distribution and prospects for control in England and Wales.

PubMed

Taylor, N G H; Dixon, P F; Jeffery, K R; Peeler, E J; Denham, K L; Way, K

2010-03-01

Koi herpesvirus (KHV) causes a highly virulent disease affecting carp, Cyprinus carpio L., and poses a serious socio-economic threat to the UK carp industry. This study aimed to determine the geographic distribution and prevalence of KHV exposed fish in England and Wales through ELISA antibody testing. Only three of the 82 farms sampled produced positive results, suggesting fish farms provide a relatively safe source of fish. Of the 71 'high-risk' fisheries tested, 26 were positive. All eight geographic areas within England and Wales studied had at least one KHV positive site. Twelve consignments of imported koi carp from seven S.E. Asian countries were tested for KHV antibody. Six consignments from six different countries were positive. Although a high proportion of consignments were positive, the results indicate that lower risk stocks of fish exist that could be sourced by the ornamental carp sector. The study provides evidence that KHV is widespread and prevalent in 'high-risk' fisheries. There are, however, prospects for controlling KHV as English and Welsh farms appear to be relatively free of the virus, and in most cases fish are not moved from fisheries to other waters.

Deaths from chickenpox in England and Wales 1995-7: analysis of routine mortality data

PubMed Central

Rawson, Helen; Crampin, Amelia; Noah, Norman

2001-01-01

Objective To evaluate the epidemiology and impact of mortality from chickenpox in England and Wales. Design Review of death certificates from the Office for National Statistics on which codes for “chickenpox” or “varicella” were mentioned. Further information ascertained from certifying physician. Participants Those certified as having died from chickenpox in England and Wales, 1995-7. Main outcome measures Diagnosis and age and sex distributions of deaths from chickenpox. Results On average, 25 people a year die from chickenpox. Overall case fatality was 9.22 per 100 000 consultations for chickenpox. Adults accounted for 81% of deaths and 19% of consultations. Deaths were twice as common in men as in women. More of those who died were born outside United Kingdom than expected (12% v 4%). Conclusions Chickenpox is not a mild disease. Deaths in adults are increasing, both in number and proportion. What is already known on this topicChickenpox can be fatal, especially in immunosuppressed people and adultsThe age distribution of cases has been shifting upwards for about 30 yearsWhat this study addsAbout 80% of deaths certified as due to chickenpox are due to chickenpoxChickenpox accounts for about 25 deaths annually in England and Wales, more than from measles, mumps, pertussis, and Hib meningitis combinedMortality in adults has been increasing for at least 30 years and now 80% of deaths from chickenpox are in adultsDeaths were twice as common in men as in women PMID:11701571

Spatial dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England, Wales and the United States

PubMed Central

Eggo, Rosalind M.; Cauchemez, Simon; Ferguson, Neil M.

2011-01-01

There is still limited understanding of key determinants of spatial spread of influenza. The 1918 pandemic provides an opportunity to elucidate spatial determinants of spread on a large scale. To better characterize the spread of the 1918 major wave, we fitted a range of city-to-city transmission models to mortality data collected for 246 population centres in England and Wales and 47 cities in the US. Using a gravity model for city-to-city contacts, we explored the effect of population size and distance on the spread of disease and tested assumptions regarding density dependence in connectivity between cities. We employed Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate parameters of the model for population, infectivity, distance and density dependence. We inferred the most likely transmission trees for both countries. For England and Wales, a model that estimated the degree of density dependence in connectivity between cities was preferable by deviance information criterion comparison. Early in the major wave, long distance infective interactions predominated, with local infection events more likely as the epidemic became widespread. For the US, with fewer more widely dispersed cities, statistical power was lacking to estimate population size dependence or the degree of density dependence, with the preferred model depending on distance only. We find that parameters estimated from the England and Wales dataset can be applied to the US data with no likelihood penalty. PMID:20573630

Time trends in physical activity in the state of São Paulo, Brazil: 2002-2008.

PubMed

Matsudo, Victor K R; Matsudo, Sandra M; Araújo, Timóteo L; Andrade, Douglas R; Oliveira, Luis C; Hallal, Pedro C

2010-12-01

To document time trends in physical activity in the state of São Paulo, Brazil (2002-2008). In addition, we discuss the role of Agita São Paulo at explaining such trends. Cross-sectional surveys were carried out in 2002, 2003, 2006, and 2008 in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, using comparable sampling approaches and similar sample sizes. In all surveys, physical activity was measured using the short version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. Separate weekly scores of walking and moderate- and vigorous-intensity physical activities were generated; cutoff points of 0 and 150 min·wk were used. Also, we created a total physical activity score by summing these three types of activity. We used logistic regression models for adjusting time trends for the different sociodemographic compositions of the samples. The prevalence of no physical activity decreased from 9.6% in 2002 to 2.7% in 2008, whereas the proportion of subjects below the 150-min threshold decreased from 43.7% in 2002 to 11.6% in 2008. These trends were mainly explained by increases in walking and moderate-intensity physical activity. Increases in physical activity were slightly greater among females than among males. Logistic regression models confirmed that these trends were not due to the different compositions of the samples. Physical activity levels are increasing in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Considering that the few data available in Brazil using the same instrument indicate exactly the opposite trend and that Agita São Paulo primarily incentives the involvement in moderate-intensity physical activity and walking, it seems that at least part of the trends described here are explained by the Agita São Paulo program.

The role of alcohol and drugs in homicides in England and Wales.

PubMed

Shaw, Jenny; Hunt, Isabelle M; Flynn, Sandra; Amos, Tim; Meehan, Janet; Robinson, Jo; Bickley, Harriet; Parsons, Rebecca; McCann, Kerry; Burns, James; Kapur, Nav; Appleby, Louis

2006-08-01

The annual number of homicide convictions in England and Wales is increasing. Previous studies have highlighted the aetiological role of alcohol and drugs in homicide. To examine rates of alcohol and drug misuse and dependence in people convicted of homicide; the role of alcohol and drugs in the offence; the social and clinical characteristics of alcohol- and drug-related homicides; and the social and clinical characteristics of patients with dual diagnosis who commit homicide. A national clinical survey based on a 3-year (1996-9) consecutive sample of people convicted of homicide in England and Wales. Information on rates of alcohol and drug misuse/dependence, the role of alcohol and drugs in the offence and social and clinical characteristics of perpetrators were collected from psychiatric reports prepared for the court in homicide convictions. Detailed clinical information was gathered from questionnaires completed by mental health teams for those in contact with mental health services. Of the 1594 homicide perpetrators, more than one-third (42%) occurred in people with a history of alcohol misuse or dependence and 40% in people with a history of drug misuse or dependence. Alcohol or drug misuse played a contributory role in two-fifths of homicides. Alcohol played a major role in 52 (6%) and a minor role in 364 (39%) homicides. Drugs played a major role in six (1%) and a minor role in 138 (14%) homicides. Forty-two homicides (17%) were committed by patients with severe mental illness and substance misuse. Alcohol- and drug-related homicides were generally associated with male perpetrators who had a history of violence, personality disorders, mental health service contact and with stranger victims. Substance misuse contributes to the majority of homicides in England and Wales. A public health approach to homicide would highlight alcohol and drugs before severe mental illness.

Marital status and the risk of suicide: experience from England and Wales, 1982-1996.

PubMed

Yip, Paul S; Thorburn, James

2004-04-01

This analysis examined suicide rates by age, sex, and marital status in England and Wales for the period 1982-1996. Never married, widowed, and divorced people had higher rates of suicide than those who were married, for both sexes. Among the widowed ages 20-39 years, both sexes had the highest rate, and the rate decreased with age. The suicide rate for divorced people was similar to those who had never married, except for the younger group ages 20-29 years. The male:female ratios for the relative suicide risk for never married, widowed, and divorced to married for both sexes were statistically significantly different for older adults. The decrease in suicide rates observed for the period 1982-1996 in England and Wales was mainly attributable to the reduction of suicide rates among the widowed and divorced.

Teacher Education in England and Wales: Some Findings from the Mote Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whitty, Geoff; And Others

Perceptions vary between researchers and the British government as to the adequacy of initial teacher education in England and Wales. Based on the data from the Modes of Teacher Education (MOTE) project the researchers find a higher level of satisfaction from teachers than that claimed by the government. The MOTE project studied the origins,…

Transition mechanism of Stone-Wales defect in armchair edge (5,5) carbon nanotube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiadi, Agung; Suprijadi

2015-04-01

We performed first principles calculations of Stone-Wales (SW) defects in armchair edge (5,5) carbon nanotube (CNT) by the density functional theory (DFT). Stone Wales (SW) defect is one kind of topological defect on the CNT. There are two kind of SW defect on the armchair edge (5,5) CNT, such as longitudinal and circumference SW defect. Barrier energy in the formation of SW defects is a good consideration to become one of parameter in controlling SW defects on the CNT. Our calculation results that a longitudinal SW defect is more stable than circumference SW defect. However, the barrier energy of circumference SW defect is lower than another one. We applied Climbing Image Nudge Elastic Band (CI-NEB) method to find minimum energy path (MEP) and barrier energy for SW defect transitions. We also found that in the case of circumference SW defect, armchair edge (5,5) CNT become semiconductor with the band gap of 0.0544 eV.

The public health response to the re-emergence of syphilis in Wales, UK.

PubMed

Thomas, D Rh; Cann, K F; Evans, M R; Roderick, J; Browning, M; Birley, H D L; Curley, W; Clark, P; Northey, G; Caple, S; Lyons, M

2011-09-01

During the 1990s, cases of infectious syphilis were uncommon in Wales. In 2002, an outbreak occurred in a sexual network of men who have sex with men (MSM) attending a sauna. A multidisciplinary outbreak control team was convened to raise awareness of the outbreak among MSM and health professionals, assess the extent of outbreak, and initiate surveillance measures. It is likely that early intensive control efforts dampened the epidemic curve. However, since 2006 the number of cases has increased steadily to a peak of four cases per 100,000 population in 2008. The majority of cases continue to occur in MSM (81% in 2009) and in those attending genitourinary (GU) medicine clinics in south east Wales (76%). Traditional sexual networks such as saunas, bars/clubs and cruising grounds remain frequently reported, but Internet-based networks are assuming increasing importance. Public health interventions have been sustained, using traditional partner notification, health promotion initiatives, and more innovative Internet network tracing methods.

Maintaining evaluation designs in long term community based health promotion programmes: Heartbeat Wales case study.

PubMed Central

Nutbeam, D; Smith, C; Murphy, S; Catford, J

1993-01-01

STUDY OBJECTIVE--To examine the difficulties of developing and maintaining outcome evaluation designs in long term, community based health promotion programmes. DESIGN--Semistructured interviews of health promotion managers. SETTING--Wales and two reference health regions in England. PARTICIPANTS--Nine health promotion managers in Wales and 18 in England. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--Information on selected heart health promotion activity undertaken or coordinated by health authorities from 1985-90 was collected. The Heartbeat Wales coronary heart disease prevention programme was set up in 1985, and a research and evaluation strategy was established to complement the intervention. A substantial increase in the budget occurred over the period. In the reference health regions in England this initiative was noted and rapidly taken up, thus compromising their use as control areas. CONCLUSION--Information on large scale, community based health promotion programmes can disseminate quickly and interfere with classic intervention/evaluation control designs through contamination. Alternative experimental designs for assessing the effectiveness of long term intervention programmes need to be considered. These should not rely solely on the use of reference populations, but should balance the measurement of outcome with an assessment of the process of change in communities. The development and use of intervention exposure measures together with well structured and comprehensive process evaluation in both the intervention and reference areas is recommended. PMID:8326270

Projected number of children with isolated spina bifida or down syndrome in England and Wales by 2020.

PubMed

Best, Kate E; Glinianaia, Svetlana V; Lingam, Raghu; Morris, Joan K; Rankin, Judith

2018-05-19

Children with major congenital anomalies often require lifelong access to health and social care services. Estimating future numbers of affected individuals can aid health and social care planning. This study aimed to estimate the number of children aged 0-15 years living with spina bifida or Down syndrome in England and Wales by 2020. Cases of spina bifida and Down syndrome born during 1998-2013 were identified from the Northern Congenital Abnormality Survey and the National Down Syndrome Cytogenetic Register, respectively. The number of infants born with spina bifida during 1998-2019 were estimated by applying the average prevalence rate in the North of England to actual and projected births in England and Wales. Poisson regression was performed to estimate the number of infants born with Down syndrome in England and Wales during 1998-2013 and 2004-2019. The numbers of children aged 0-15 living with spina bifida or Down syndrome in 2014 and in 2020 were then estimated by multiplying year- and age-specific survival estimates by the number of affected births. An estimated 956 children with isolated spina bifida, 623 children with spina bifida and hydrocephalus and 11,592 children with Down syndrome aged 0-15 years will be living in England and Wales by 2020, increases of 7.2%, 12.0% and 12.7% since 2014, respectively. Due to improvements in survival, an increase in population size and changes in maternal age distribution at delivery, we anticipate further increases in the number of children living with spina bifida or Down syndrome by 2020. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Effect on time in quarantine of the choice of program for eradication of footrot from 196 sheep flocks in southern New South Wales.

PubMed

Mills, K; McClenaughan, P; Morton, A; Alley, D; Lievaart, J; Windsor, P A; Egerton, J R

2012-01-01

To identify and compare programs for eradicating virulent footrot (VFR) chosen by owners of quarantined sheep flocks in southern New South Wales. Data from 196 sheep flocks in the Wagga Wagga and Young Rural Lands Protection Boards were used to determine the program chosen, the influence of flock size on the program chosen and the effects of the program chosen and the use of contractors on the time in quarantine. The most popular programs in flocks using a single program were: total destocking (61/173; 35.3%) and inspection and culling of affected animals (71/173; 41.0%). Treatment of known infected animals was chosen in 41 flocks and of those, 10 (5.8%) used antibiotics for treatment and 31 (17.9%) used foot-bathing. Combined programs were used in 23 flocks and in 10 flocks a change of program occurred before eradication was achieved. The choice of program was, to some extent, affected by flock size, with owners of small flocks (<500 sheep) more likely to destock. The chosen program strongly influenced the time in quarantine, the shortest time being for destocking (mean 284 days), followed by culling of infected sheep (395 days), treatment with antibiotics (433 days) and finally foot-bathing (502 days). Time in quarantine was significantly shorter when contractors were used. All the options chosen led to the eradication of VFR. However, in this sample both the choice of program and the use of contractors influenced the time taken to achieve eradication and therefore the time in quarantine. Based on time in quarantine, foot-bathing was the least desirable option for the eradication of VFR because of the significantly greater time involved, perpetuation of risk to neighbours and increased cost of inspections. These findings were derived from flocks that were quarantined, but they are relevant to all flock owners considering eradication of VFR. © 2012 The Authors. Australian Veterinary Journal © 2012 Australian Veterinary Association.

Survey of Salmonella and Campylobacter contamination of whole, raw poultry on retail sale in Wales in 2003.

PubMed

Meldrum, R J; Tucker, I D; Smith, R M M; Edwards, C

2005-07-01

A survey of the Salmonella and Campylobacter contamination of raw, whole chickens available to consumers in Wales was performed between March and December 2003. In total, 736 samples were taken, and overall contamination rates of 73.1% for Campylobacter and 5.7% for Salmonella were found. This survey follows a survey performed during 2001 to 2002 by Welsh local authorities and the National Public Health Service for Wales that established updated baseline rates for both pathogens in raw, whole chicken available to consumers in Wales. This survey indicated no difference in Campylobacter rates between fresh and frozen samples or between samples taken from retailers and local butchers, but significant differences existed in Salmonella rates between fresh and frozen samples and between those sampled from retailers and butchers, with frozen chickens and samples taken from retailers having significantly higher rates. However, the difference in Salmonella isolation rate between retailers and butchers was found to be due to the differences in the proportions of fresh and frozen chickens sampled from these locations, with a significantly higher number of frozen chickens (with a higher Salmonella rate) being sampled from retailers.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of the New South Wales Adult Drug Court Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shanahan, Marian; Lancsar, Emily; Haas, Marion; Lind, Bronwyn; Weatherburn, Don; Chen, Shuling

2004-01-01

In New South Wales, Australia, a cost-effectiveness evaluation was conducted of an adult drug court (ADC) program as an alternative to jail for criminal offenders addicted to illicit drugs. This article describes the program, the cost-effectiveness analysis, and the results. The results of this study reveal that, for the 23-month period of the…

Women's Work or Creative Work? Embroidery in New South Wales High Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, Susan

2009-01-01

Embroidery is traditionally regarded as women's work and the teaching of embroidery as a means of preparing young women for domesticity, a view which has been reinforced by historians studying changes in the high school art curriculum that occurred with the introduction of the Wyndham Scheme in New South Wales in the early 1960s. This paper argues…

Improvements to Suicide Prevention Training for Prison Staff in England and Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayes, Adrian J.; Shaw, Jenny J.; Lever-Green, Gillian; Parker, Dianne; Gask, Linda

2008-01-01

Suicide prevention training for the prison service in England and Wales has been criticized. STORM is a package emphasizing the practice and review of interactions with suicidal persons and was evaluated in a pilot study for use in prisons. Trainees completed questionnaires immediately before and after training and at 6 to 8 months follow-up.…

Projection of landfill stabilization period by time series analysis of leachate quality and transformation trends of VOCs.

PubMed

Sizirici, Banu; Tansel, Berrin

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate suitability of using the time series analysis for selected leachate quantity and quality parameters to forecast the duration of post closure period of a closed landfill. Selected leachate quality parameters (i.e., sodium, chloride, iron, bicarbonate, total dissolved solids (TDS), and ammonium as N) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) (i.e., vinyl chloride, 1,4-dichlorobenzene, chlorobenzene, benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes, total BTEX) were analyzed by the time series multiplicative decomposition model to estimate the projected levels of the parameters. These parameters were selected based on their detection levels and consistency of detection in leachate samples. In addition, VOCs detected in leachate and their chemical transformations were considered in view of the decomposition stage of the landfill. Projected leachate quality trends were analyzed and compared with the maximum contaminant level (MCL) for the respective parameters. Conditions that lead to specific trends (i.e., increasing, decreasing, or steady) and interactions of leachate quality parameters were evaluated. Decreasing trends were projected for leachate quantity, concentrations of sodium, chloride, TDS, ammonia as N, vinyl chloride, 1,4-dichlorobenzene, benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes, and total BTEX. Increasing trends were projected for concentrations of iron, bicarbonate, and chlorobenzene. Anaerobic conditions in landfill provide favorable conditions for corrosion of iron resulting in higher concentrations over time. Bicarbonate formation as a byproduct of bacterial respiration during waste decomposition and the lime rock cap system of the landfill contribute to the increasing levels of bicarbonate in leachate. Chlorobenzene is produced during anaerobic biodegradation of 1,4-dichlorobenzene, hence, the increasing trend of chlorobenzene may be due to the declining trend of 1,4-dichlorobenzene. The time series multiplicative

Global trends in vegetation phenology from 32-year GEOV1 leaf area index time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verger, Aleixandre; Baret, Frédéric; Weiss, Marie; Filella, Iolanda; Peñuelas, Josep

2013-04-01

Phenology is a critical component in understanding ecosystem response to climate variability. Long term data records from global mapping satellite platforms are valuable tools for monitoring vegetation responses to climate change at the global scale. Phenology satellite products and trend detection from satellite time series are expected to contribute to improve our understanding of climate forcing on vegetation dynamics. The capacity of monitoring ecosystem responses to global climate change was evaluated in this study from the 32-year time series of global Leaf Area Index (LAI) which have been recently produced within the geoland2 project. The long term GEOV1 LAI products were derived from NOAA/AVHRR (1981 to 2000) and SPOT/VGT (1999 to the present) with specific emphasis on consistency and continuity. Since mid-November, GEOV1 LAI products are freely available to the scientific community at geoland2 portal (www.geoland2.eu/core-mapping-services/biopar.html). These products are distributed at a dekadal time step for the period 1981-2000 and 2000-2012 at 0.05° and 1/112°, respectively. The use of GEOV1 data covering a long time period and providing information at dense time steps are expected to increase the reliability of trend detection. In this study, GEOV1 LAI time series aggregated at 0.5° spatial resolution are used. The CACAO (Consistent Adjustment of the Climatology to Actual Observations) method (Verger et al, 2013) was applied to characterize seasonal anomalies as well as identify trends. For a given pixel, CACAO computes, for each season, the time shift and the amplitude difference between the current temporal profile and the climatology computed over the 32 years. These CACAO parameters allow quantifying shifts in the timing of seasonal phenology and inter-annual variations in magnitude as compared to the average climatology. Interannual variations in the timing of the Start of Season and End of Season, Season Length and LAI level in the peak of the

Mental health legislation and human rights in England, Wales and the Republic of Ireland.

PubMed

Kelly, Brendan D

2011-01-01

In 2005, the World Health Organization (WHO) published its Resource Book on Mental Health, Human Rights and Legislation (Geneva: WHO) presenting a detailed statement of human rights issues which need to be addressed in national legislation relating to mental health. The purpose of this paper is to determine the extent to which revised mental health legislation in England, Wales (2007) and Ireland (2001) accords with these standards (excluding standards relating solely to children or mentally-ill offenders). Legislation in England and Wales meets 90 (54.2%) of the 166 WHO standards examined, while legislation in Ireland meets 80 standards (48.2%). Areas of high compliance include definitions of mental disorder, relatively robust procedures for involuntary admission and treatment (although provision of information remains suboptimal) and clarity regarding offences and penalties Areas of medium compliance relate to competence, capacity and consent (with a particular deficit in capacity legislation in Ireland), oversight and review (which exclude long-term voluntary patients and require more robust complaints procedures), and rules governing special treatments, seclusion and restraint. Areas of low compliance relate to promoting rights (impacting on other areas within legislation, such as information management), voluntary patients (especially non-protesting, incapacitated patients), protection of vulnerable groups and emergency treatment. The greatest single deficit in both jurisdictions relates to economic and social rights. There are four key areas in need of rectification and clarification in relation to mental health legislation in England, Wales and Ireland; these relate to (1) measures to protect and promote the rights of voluntary patients; (2) issues relating to competence, capacity and consent (especially in Ireland); (3) the role of "common law" in relation to mental health law (especially in England and Wales); and (4) the extent to which each jurisdiction

Body-size trends of the extinct giant shark Carcharocles megalodon: a deep-time perspective on marine apex predators.

PubMed

Pimiento, Catalina; Balk, Meghan A

2015-06-01

The extinct shark Carcharocles megalodon is one of the largest marine apex predators ever to exist. Nonetheless, little is known about its body-size variations through time and space. Here, we studied the body-size trends of C. megalodon through its temporal and geographic range to better understand its ecology and evolution. Given that this species was the last of the megatooth lineage, a group of species that shows a purported size increase through time, we hypothesized that C. megalodon also displayed this trend, increasing in size over time and reaching its largest size prior to extinction. We found that C. megalodon body-size distribution was left-skewed (suggesting a long-term selective pressure favoring larger individuals), and presented significant geographic variation (possibly as a result of the heterogeneous ecological constraints of this cosmopolitan species) over geologic time. Finally, we found that stasis was the general mode of size evolution of C. megalodon (i.e., no net changes over time), contrasting with the trends of the megatooth lineage and our hypothesis. Given that C. megalodon is a relatively long-lived species with a widely distributed fossil record, we further used this study system to provide a deep-time perspective to the understanding of the body-size trends of marine apex predators. For instance, our results suggest that (1) a selective pressure in predatory sharks for consuming a broader range of prey may favor larger individuals and produce left-skewed distributions on a geologic time scale; (2) body-size variations in cosmopolitan apex marine predators may depend on their interactions with geographically discrete communities; and (3) the inherent characteristics of shark species can produce stable sizes over geologic time, regardless of the size trends of their lineages.

Fertility time trends in dairy herds in northern Portugal.

PubMed

Rocha, A; Martins, A; Carvalheira, J

2010-10-01

The economics of dairy production are in great part dictated by the reproductive efficiency of the herds. Many studies have reported a widespread decrease in fertility of dairy cows. In a previous work (Rocha et al. 2001), we found a very poor oestrus detection rate (38%), and consequently a delayed calving to 1st AI and calving to conception intervals. However, a good conception rate at 1st AI was noted (51%) resulting in a low number of inseminations per pregnancy (IAP) (1.4). Here, results from a subsequent fertility time trend assessment study carried out in the same region for cows born from 1992 to 2002 are reported. Statistical linear models were used to analyse the data. Estimate linear contrasts of least square means were computed from each model. The number of observations per studied index varied from 12,130 (culling rate) to 57,589 (non-return rate). Mean age at first calving was 28.9 ± 0.14 months, without (p > 0.05) variation over time. There was a small, but significant (p < 0.05), deterioration of all other parameters. Non-return rates at 90 days and calving rate at 1st AI decreased 0.3% per trimester, with a consequent increase of 0.04 IA/parturition. Oestrus detection rate decreased 0.13% per year, and calving at 1st AI and calving-conception intervals increased 0.17 and 0.07 days/year respectively, while intercalving interval increased 1.7 days per year. From 12,130 cows calving, only 1,816 had a 4th lactation (85% culling/losses). The data was not meant to draw conclusions on the causes for the decreased fertility over time, but an increase of milk production from 6537 kg to 8590 kg (305 days) from 1996 to 2002 is probably one factor to take into consideration. Specific measures to revert or slow down this trend of decreasing fertility are warranted. Available strategies are discussed. © 2009 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Time trends and demographic differences in youth exposure to alcohol advertising on television.

PubMed

Ringel, Jeanne S; Collins, Rebecca L; Ellickson, Phyllis L

2006-10-01

To examine trends in youth exposure to alcohol advertising on television across different demographic groups. We used television ratings data on alcohol advertisements to examine trends in exposure between September 1998 and February 2002. Further, we explored the differences in exposure across demographic groups by examining group-level alcohol ad exposure across specific networks, program types, and times of day. We found that boys were more exposed than girls and African-Americans are more exposed than whites. Moreover, the race differential appeared to be increasing over time, whereas the gender differential appeared to increase with age. Differences in viewing patterns across race and gender contributed to the observed differences in exposure to alcohol advertising on television. These results provide guidance in identifying comparative vulnerabilities in exposure to alcohol advertising on television, and can aid in the development of strategies to inoculate youth against those vulnerabilities.

Educational Development Strategy in England and Wales: Reviews of National Policies for Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris (France).

This report examines educational planning in England and Wales, carried out as part of the program of the Education Committee of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for the Review of National Educational Policies. The publication is comprised of three parts. Part one provides background information on the educational…

The current status of methods used by the elderly for suicides in England and Wales

PubMed Central

Shah, Ajit; Buckley, Laura

2011-01-01

Abstract: Background: Suicide rates in older people in England and Wales have declined in recent years. The challenge, therefore, is to sustain this downward trend. Better understanding of the current methods of suicide used by older people may inform strategies to sustain this decline. Methods: A study to ascertain the up to date status of methods of suicides used by older people in England and Wales was undertaken using the latest available national mortality data (suicides and open verdicts) from the Office of National Statistics for the years 2001 to 2007. Suicide in this study is measured by and includes the combination of deaths due to suicides (ICD-10 codes X60-X84) and open verdicts (ICD-10 codes Y10-Y34). The chi square test (corrected for continuity) was used to examine the differences in the methods of suicide between: (i) those under the age of 65 years and those aged 65 years and over in both sexes; (ii) males and females aged 65 years and over. Results: Hanging, strangulation and suffocation (males, 40.2%; females 20.1%), drowning and submersion (males, 8.2%; females 11.4%), and other and unspecified drugs, medicaments and biological substances (males, 8%; females, 20.4%) were the most common methods of suicide in older people. There were significant differences in the methods of suicide used by older men and women, and by older and younger people in both sexes. Suicide by unspecified means was common in both older men and women and higher in older women than older men. Unfortunately, data on the potential method of suicide is not available for these "unspecified means. Conclusions: The clear differences in the methods of suicide between older and younger people and between older men and women suggest a need to develop different strategies to reduce access to these methods of suicide for different age and sex groups. Also, potentially preventable methods of suicide may be hidden behind suicide by unspecified means. Therefore, there is a need to

Seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours according to educational level and ethnic background among 14-year-old adolescents.

PubMed

Meijerink, Frederika J; van Vuuren, C Leontine; Wijnhoven, Hanneke A H; van Eijsden, Manon

2016-04-01

To assess seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours in 14-year-old adolescents living in an urban area and to examine the influence of educational level and ethnicity on these time trends. Second grade students (mean age 13·6 years) filled in questionnaires about the energy balance-related behaviours of breakfast consumption, fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity and screen-time behaviour from school years 2006-2007 to 2012-2013. Energy balance-related behaviours were dichotomized and logistic regression analyses were used to examine time trends in healthy energy balance-related behaviours, including interaction terms for educational level and ethnicity. Secondary schools in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Per school year, 2185-3331 children participated. The total sample included 19 244 students of Dutch, Surinamese, Turkish and Moroccan ethnic background. A significant linear increase was found for positive screen-time behaviour (<2 h/d; OR per year=1·04; 95 % CI 1·03, 1·06). For daily vegetable consumption a non-linear negative trend was observed (school year 2012-2013 v. 2006-2007: OR=0·90; 95 % CI 0·80, 1·00). Time trends in screen time were significantly different across educational levels (P-interaction=0·002) and ethnic backgrounds (P<0·001), as were time trends in daily fruit consumption (P=0·017 and P=0·018, respectively) and, for ethnicity, trends in daily vegetable consumption (P<0·001). The increase in positive screen-time behaviour is a positive finding. However, discouraging screen time and promoting other healthy behaviours, more specifically daily fruit and vegetable consumption, remain important particularly among adolescents enrolled in pre-vocational education and of non-Dutch ethnic background.

Seventeen-year time trend in poor self-rated health in older adults: changing contributions of chronic diseases and disability.

PubMed

Galenkamp, Henrike; Braam, Arjan W; Huisman, Martijn; Deeg, Dorly J H

2013-06-01

Studies on trends in the self-rated health (SRH) of older people have shown conflicting results, which might partly be explained by changing associations between SRH and indicators of other health dimensions over time. Therefore, this study investigates 17-year time trends in older adults' poor SRH, in the context of trends in chronic diseases and disability, between 1992 and 2009. Data originate from six measurement waves of the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (N = 4009, ages 60-85 years). SRH was assessed with the question 'How is your health in general?' The presence of lung disease, cardiac disease, peripheral arterial disease, diabetes mellitus, stroke, arthritis and cancer was assessed by self-report. Two severity levels of disability were assessed with six questions on physical functioning. Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) analysis was applied to assess statistical significance in each time trend. There was a stable trend in the prevalence of poor SRH and severe disability, while the mean number of chronic diseases (1.3-1.8) and the prevalence of mild disability (20.5-32.1%) increased between 1992 and 2009. The association between poor SRH and chronic diseases became weaker, whereas the association between poor SRH and severe disability became stronger over time. Most unfavourable trends were observed in the older old and the lower educated. Our results suggest that the seeming stability of poor SRH hides underlying increases in chronic diseases and disability: over time, people may attach importance to different aspects of health when rating their overall health.

Behavior-over-time graphs: assessing perceived trends in healthy eating and active living environments and behaviors across 49 communities.

PubMed

Hoehner, Christine M; Sabounchi, Nasim S; Brennan, Laura K; Hovmand, Peter; Kemner, Allison

2015-01-01

In the evaluation of the Healthy Kids, Healthy Communities initiative, investigators implemented Group Model Building (GMB) to promote systems thinking at the community level. As part of the GMB sessions held in each community partnership, participants created behavior-over-time graphs (BOTGs) to characterize their perceptions of changes over time related to policies, environments, collaborations, and social determinants in their community related to healthy eating, active living, and childhood obesity. To describe the process of coding BOTGs and their trends. Descriptive study of trends among BOTGs from 11 domains (eg, active living environments, social determinants of health, funding) and relevant categories and subcategories based on the graphed variables. In addition, BOTGs were distinguished by whether the variables were positively (eg, access to healthy foods) or negatively (eg, screen time) associated with health. The GMB sessions were held in 49 community partnerships across the United States. Participants in the GMB sessions (n = 590; n = 5-21 per session) included key individuals engaged in or impacted by the policy, system, or environmental changes occurring in the community. Thirty codes were developed to describe the direction (increasing, decreasing, stable) and shape (linear, reinforcing, balancing, or oscillating) of trends from 1660 graphs. The patterns of trends varied by domain. For example, among variables positively associated with health, the prevalence of reinforcing increasing trends was highest for active living and healthy eating environments (37.4% and 29.3%, respectively), partnership and community capacity (38.8%), and policies (30.2%). Examination of trends of specific variables suggested both convergence (eg, for cost of healthy foods) and divergence (eg, for farmers' markets) of trends across partnerships. Behavior-over-time graphs provide a unique data source for understanding community-level trends and, when combined with causal

Timber resource statistics for the Prince of Wales inventory unit, Alaska, 1973.

Treesearch

Willem W.S. Van Hees; Vernon J. LaBau

1983-01-01

Statistics on forest area, total gross and net timber volumes, and annual net growth and mortality are presented from the 1973 timber inventory of the Prince of Wales unit, Alaska. Timberland area is estimated at 1.38 million acres (557 593 ha), net growing stock volume at 7.56 billion cubic feet (214 million m3), and annual net growth and...

Timing and secular trend of pubertal development in Beijing girls.

PubMed

Chen, Fang-Fang; Wang, You-Fa; Mi, Jie

2014-02-01

Historical research is limited in changes in pubertal development in Chinese girls. We aimed to identify the timing of pubertal characteristics and the secular trend of menarche age among Beijing girls from the 1980s through the 2000s. Six data sets were analyzed, including the Beijing Child and Adolescent Metabolic Syndrome study in 2004, where 9778 Bejing girls aged 6-18 years were studied. The Fetal Origins of Adult Disease study provided retrospective menarche age from 1940 through 1960. Other four studies were conducted in Beijing to obtain supplementary information to assess secular trend in menarche age. Linear regression method was used to analyze the data. Among Beijing girls in 2004, the median age at menarche was 12.1 years, which was 0.6 years earlier in urban than in rural areas. The median age at Breast Tanner Stage 2 was 9.5 ± 1.2 years, representing 9.4 ± 1.1 years and 9.6 ± 1.2 years for urban and rural girls, respectively. In contrast, the median age at Pubic Hair Tanner Stage 2 was 11.1 ± 1.1 years, representing 10.8 ± 1.1 and 11.4 ± 1.1 years for urban and rural girls, respectively. The menarche age of urban girls decreased by 4.2 months per decade, and that of rural girls by 9.6 months per decade from 1980 to 2004. Urban girls mature earlier than rural girls in Beijing. A secular trend towards earlier menarche was observed between the 1980s and the 2000s.

The Contemporary State of Child Protection Policy and Practice in England and Wales.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parton, Nigel; Otway, Olive

1995-01-01

Identifies and analyzes central tensions and themes that characterize child protection policy in England and Wales. Outlines conflicting messages that have been prevalent in debates about child abuse since the early 1980s. Analyzes in detail the 1989 Children Act, the 1991 Criminal Justice Act, Working Together (1991), and the Memorandum of Good…

Primary School Playgrounds as Spaces of Inclusion/Exclusion in New South Wales, Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ndhlovu, Sithembile; Varea, Valeria

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine how the design and organisation of primary school playground spaces may result in the inclusion or exclusion of some groups of children. Two primary school playgrounds in rural New South Wales, Australia, were selected for this investigation. Data were collected through observations and unstructured…

Time trends in births and cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities.

PubMed

Horner-Johnson, Willi; Biel, Frances M; Darney, Blair G; Caughey, Aaron B

2017-07-01

Although it is likely that childbearing among women with disabilities is increasing, no empirical data have been published on changes over time in the numbers of women with disabilities giving birth. Further, while it is known that women with disabilities are at increased risk of cesarean delivery, temporal trends in cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities have not been examined. To assess time trends in births by any mode and in primary cesarean deliveries among women with physical, sensory, or intellectual/developmental disabilities. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked vital records and hospital discharge data from all deliveries in California, 2000-2010 (n = 4,605,061). We identified women with potential disabilities using ICD-9 codes. We used descriptive statistics and visualizations to examine time patterns. Logistic regression analyses assessed the association between disability and primary cesarean delivery, stratified by year. Among all women giving birth, the proportion with a disability increased from 0.27% in 2000 to 0.80% in 2010. Women with disabilities had significantly elevated odds of primary cesarean delivery in each year, but the magnitude of the odds ratio decreased over time from 2.60 (95% CI = 2.25 = 2.99) in 2000 to 1.66 (95% CI = 1.51-1.81) in 2010. Adequate clinician training is needed to address the perinatal care needs of the increasing numbers of women with disabilities giving birth. Continued efforts to understand cesarean delivery patterns and reasons for cesarean deliveries may help guide further reductions in proportions of cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities relative to women without disabilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The implementation of crisis resolution home treatment teams in wales: results of the national survey 2007-2008.

PubMed

Jones, Richard; Jordan, Sue

2010-02-18

In mental health nursing, Crisis Resolution and Home Treatment (CRHT) services are key components of the shift from in-patient to community care. CRHT has been developed mainly in urban settings, and deployment in more rural areas has not been examined. We aimed to evaluate CRHT services' progress towards policy targets. All 18 CRHT teams in Wales were surveyed. A service profile questionnaire was distributed to team leaders. Fourteen of 18 teams responded in full. All but one were led by nurses, who formed the main professional group. All teams reported providing an alternative to hospital admission and assisting early discharge. With one exception, teams were 'gatekeeping' hospital beds. There was some divergence in clients seen, perceived impact of the service, operational hours, distances travelled, team structure, input of consultant psychiatrists and caseloads. We found some differences between the 8 urban teams and the 6 teams serving rural or mixed areas: rural teams travelled more, had fewer inpatient beds, and less medical input (0.067 compared to 0.688 whole time equivalents).. Most respondents felt that resource constraints were limiting further developments. Teams met standards for CHRT services in Wales; however, these are less onerous than those in England, particularly in relation to operational hours and staffing complement. As services develop, it will be important to ensure that rural and mixed areas receive the same level of input as urban areas.

Morchella australiana sp. nov., an apparent Australian endemic from New South Wales and Victoria

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

An abundant fruiting of a black morel was encountered in temperate northwestern New South Wales (NSW), Australia, during a mycological survey in August 2010. The collection site was west of the Great Dividing Range in a young, dry sclerophyll woodland forest dominated by Eucalyptus and Callitris nor...

NASA trend analysis procedures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

This publication is primarily intended for use by NASA personnel engaged in managing or implementing trend analysis programs. 'Trend analysis' refers to the observation of current activity in the context of the past in order to infer the expected level of future activity. NASA trend analysis was divided into 5 categories: problem, performance, supportability, programmatic, and reliability. Problem trend analysis uncovers multiple occurrences of historical hardware or software problems or failures in order to focus future corrective action. Performance trend analysis observes changing levels of real-time or historical flight vehicle performance parameters such as temperatures, pressures, and flow rates as compared to specification or 'safe' limits. Supportability trend analysis assesses the adequacy of the spaceflight logistics system; example indicators are repair-turn-around time and parts stockage levels. Programmatic trend analysis uses quantitative indicators to evaluate the 'health' of NASA programs of all types. Finally, reliability trend analysis attempts to evaluate the growth of system reliability based on a decreasing rate of occurrence of hardware problems over time. Procedures for conducting all five types of trend analysis are provided in this publication, prepared through the joint efforts of the NASA Trend Analysis Working Group.

District nursing renascent as Wales adopts safe staffing levels.

PubMed

Labourne, Paul

2018-05-02

This article reflects on the history of the NHS in Wales and how this has led to its current structure. How this structure supports integrated working across primary, community and secondary care and how further integration with social care is moving forward and its direct effects on district nursing are explored. This article describes how district nursing is meeting these challenges. Support for district nurses as part of integrated multiprofessional teams is being developed to promote appropriately staffed teams centred on meeting the requirements of people within a designated area and ensuring that home is the best and first place of care.

William Wales and the 1769 transit of Venus: puzzle solving and the determination of the astronomical unit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metz, Don

2009-05-01

According to Thomas Kuhn, a significant part of “normal science” is the fact gathering, empirical work which is intended to illustrate an existing paradigm. Some of this effort focuses on the determination of physical constants such as the astronomical unit (AU). For Kuhn, normal science is also what prepares students for membership in a particular scientific community and is embodied in some form in our science textbooks. However, neither Kuhn nor the textbook says much about the individuals who practice normal science, especially those who had been relegated to the “hack” duties of long and arduous measurement and calculation. In this paper, to provide a context for students of astronomy, I will outline the story of the determination of the AU and in particular the contribution of William Wales, an obscure British astronomer. Wales, toiling in the shadow of Halley (of Halley’s comet fame), Mason and Dixon (of Mason and Dixon line fame) and the infamous Captain Cook endured a brutal winter in northern Canada for a brief glimpse of the 1769 transit of Venus. In the end, Wales supplied one small piece of the puzzle in the determination of the AU and he exemplified the human spirit and persistence of a Kuhnian “puzzle solver”.

An Analysis of Misconceptions in Science Textbooks: Earth Science in England and Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Chris John Henry

2010-01-01

Surveys of the earth science content of all secondary (high school) science textbooks and related publications used in England and Wales have revealed high levels of error/misconception. The 29 science textbooks or textbook series surveyed (51 texts in all) showed poor coverage of National Curriculum earth science and contained a mean level of one…

Technological Innovation, Entrepreneurship, Higher Education and Economic Regeneration in Wales: A Policy Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomas, Brychan; Packham, Gary; Miller, Christopher

2006-01-01

This paper presents the views of key policy makers concerning innovation and entrepreneurship in Wales. The development of innovation in SMEs and the policy implications for economic regeneration are also analysed. The role of a variety of actors (including users and suppliers) is considered, as is the impact of networks of SMEs linked together in…

Profiles of Learning. The Basic Skills Testing Program in New South Wales: 1989.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Masters, Geofferey; And Others

This publication on the New South Wales' Basic Skills Testing Program (BSTP) describes the development of the program's tests, the analysis of students' results, and the communication of results to parents, teachers, and schools. In BSTP tests, basic skills are defined not as low-level, rudimentary survival skills, but as major areas of learning…

Deemed consent: assessing the new opt-out approach to organ procurement in Wales.

PubMed

Albertsen, Andreas

2018-05-01

In December 2015, Wales became the first country in the UK to move away from an opt-in system in organ procurement. The new legislation introduces the concept of deemed consent whereby a person who neither opt in nor opt out is deemed to have consented to donation. The data released by the National Health Service (NHS) in July 2017 provide an excellent opportunity to assess this legislation in light of concerns that it would decrease procurement rates for living and deceased donation, as well as sparking an increase in family refusals. None of these concerns have come to pass, with Wales experiencing more registered donors, fewer family refusals and more living donations. However, as the number of actual donors has dropped slightly from a high level, the situation must be monitored closely in the years to come. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Breast-feeding and weaning practices in the DONALD study: age and time trends.

PubMed

Foterek, Kristina; Hilbig, Annett; Alexy, Ute

2014-03-01

Besides influencing short- and long-term health status, infant feeding practices are known to have an effect on later food preferences. This study aimed to identify present trends in breast-feeding duration and weaning practices with special focus on preparation methods of complementary food (CF), that is, homemade and commercial CF. In total, 1419 three-day weighed diet records collected between 2004 and 2012 from 366 children of the German DOrtmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed study ages 6 to 24 months were analysed. Full (n = 339) and total breast-feeding duration (n = 344) was collected by questionnaire. To investigate age and time trends, logistic regression and polynomial mixed regression models were used. Infants born between 2008 and 2012 were 3.3-fold less likely to be fully breast-fed for ≥4 months than those born before 2004 (P < 0.0001). Overall, 59.3% commercial, 21.1% homemade, and 19.6% combined CF was consumed by the study sample. Subjects with high commercial CF consumption (percentage of commercial CF > median 62%) were significantly older (P < 0.0001), showed shorter full and total breast-feeding duration (P < 0.0001), and were more likely to have mothers with a lower educational status (P = 0.01). Both commercial and homemade CF showed opposing, nonlinear age trends. No time trends could be found. Decreasing duration of full breast-feeding should encourage health care providers to further promote longer breast-feeding duration. With the constantly high consumption of commercial CF at all ages, nutritional adequacy of both homemade and commercial CF needs to be investigated closer, as does their long-term influence on health and dietary habits, for example, fruit and vegetable intake.

Detecting trends in forest disturbance and recovery using yearly Landsat time series: 1. LandTrendr — Temporal segmentation algorithms

Treesearch

Robert E. Kennedy; Zhiqiang Yang; Warren B. Cohen

2010-01-01

We introduce and test LandTrendr (Landsat-based detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery), a new approach to extract spectral trajectories of land surface change from yearly Landsat time-series stacks (LTS). The method brings together two themes in time-series analysis of LTS: capture of short-duration events and smoothing of long-term trends. Our strategy is...

Fall prevalence, time trend and its related risk factors among elderly people in China.

PubMed

Wu, Hong; Ouyang, Peng

2017-11-01

To study the fall prevalence, time trends and related risk factors among elderly people in the Chinese mainland from 2011 to 2013. Our data were from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2011 and 2013. The population sample included people aged 60 years and over. Whether the person had experienced fall accident in the last two years was used to measure fall incidence. The time trend and age groups were investigated through the chi-square test. The related risk factors were examined based on the binary logistic regression model. In 2011, 19.64% (95% CI, 18.66%, 20.67%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents and in 2013, 19.28% (95% CI, 18.46%, 20.13%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents. However, no significant difference was seen in the fall prevalence between 2011 and 2013. The fall prevalence among elderly people aged 66-70 declined significantly while that among people aged over 80 showed an increasing time trend. The fall prevalence was affected significantly by factors including age (66-70), gender, marital status, self-rated health, quantity of chronic diseases, quantity of disability items, activities of daily living and physical functioning. It is revealed the fall prevalence showed no increment from 2011 to 2013 but at a high level. More efforts should be made to reduce the fall prevalence, and special attention should be paid to the elderly people aged over 80 and older. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Immigrants as New Speakers in Galicia and Wales: Issues of Integration, Belonging and Legitimacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bermingham, Nicola; Higham, Gwennan

2018-01-01

Immigrant integration in nation states increasingly focuses on the importance of learning the national state language. This is evidenced by increased emphasis on rigorous language testing and tighter citizenship regulations. This paper analyses immigrant integration in two sub-state contexts, Galicia and Wales, where presence of a national…

Teaching Secondary RE at Faith Schools in England and Wales: Listening to the Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Francis, Leslie J.; Robbins, Mandy

2011-01-01

The present study begins by distinguishing between three kinds of "faith schools" (known as schools with a religious character) within England and Wales: faith schools that operate within the state-maintained sector and had their origin in voluntary church-related initiatives prior to the Education Act 1870; "traditional"…

Rewilding in England and Wales: A review of recent developments, issues, and concerns

Treesearch

Steve Carver

2007-01-01

This paper reviews the emerging wild land policy in the United Kingdom-in England and Wales in particular-and the environmental, social, political and economic drivers that make extensive protected wild land areas a possibility in what is otherwise a crowded and intensively developed island nation. Various future scenarios for wild land and rewilding in England and...

When School Is Not Enough: New Initiatives in Intergenerational Language Transmission in Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edwards, Viv; Newcombe, Lynda Prichard

2005-01-01

This paper examines language reproduction in the family in the context of a highly innovative project in Wales, where the Welsh language has been in decline for over a century. Although Welsh-medium schooling has played a pivotal role in slowing and even reversing language shift in recent decades, there is mounting evidence of the dangers of …

Time for Children: Trends in the Employment Patterns of Parents, 1967-2009. NBER Working Paper No. 17135

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fox, Liana E.; Han, Wen-Jui; Ruhm, Christopher; Waldfogel, Jane

2011-01-01

Utilizing data from the 1967-2009 years of the March Current Population Surveys, we examine two important resources for children's well-being: time and money. We document trends in parental employment, from the perspective of children, and show what underlies these trends. We find that increases in family work hours mainly reflect movements into…

Teacher Time and Curriculum Manageability at Key Stage 1: A Third Report of Research into the Use of Teacher Time.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, R. J.; Neill, S. R. St. J.

This report, the second of two follow-up studies, compares time usage of 105 infant teachers in England and Wales with the workloads of teachers surveyed in 1990 (the pilot study) and 1991. The report presents findings about the nature of the sample, working conditions, and teacher perceptions; time spent on work overall and time spent on…

Complaints against health-care professionals providing police custodial and forensic medical/health-care services and sexual offence examiner services in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

PubMed

Kennedy, Kieran M; Green, Peter G; Payne-James, J Jason

2017-01-01

Complaints management is an integral component of good clinical governance and an essential contributor to patient safety. Little is known about complaints against health-care professionals (HCPs) in police custodial settings and sexual assault referral centres. This study explored the frequency with which complaints are made against such HCPs working in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. It explored the nature of those complaints and the procedures by which they are investigated. Relevant information was requested from all police services in England, Wales and Northern Ireland; professional regulatory bodies; and the Independent Police Complaints Commission under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). Eighty-nine per cent of police services responded to the FOIA request. However, only a minority of these provided detailed information. Many police services cited the provision of health-care services by external providers as the reason for not holding information upon complaints. There was no evidence of any upward trend in the numbers of complaints over the study period. Delayed response to a request for attendance, incivility, medication issues and issues regarding the quality of reports and evidence were amongst the most common types of complaints described. A small number of responders provided copies of the disciplinary procedures used to manage complaints against HCPs. Significant heterogeneity exists in respect of complaints handling procedures across custodial and forensic medical/health-care services and sexual offence examiner services. An opportunity to identify learning for improvement is being missed as a result of the absence of standardised complaints handling procedures.

Decreased susceptibility to cephalosporins among gonococci: data from the Gonococcal Resistance to Antimicrobials Surveillance Programme (GRASP) in England and Wales, 2007-2011.

PubMed

Ison, Catherine A; Town, Katy; Obi, Chinelo; Chisholm, Stephanie; Hughes, Gwenda; Livermore, David M; Lowndes, Catherine M

2013-09-01

Effective treatment of gonorrhoea is fundamental to public health control; however, the ability of Neisseria gonorrhoeae to successively develop resistance to different treatments has hampered control efforts. The extended-spectrum cephalosporins--cefixime and ceftriaxone--have been recommended in the UK for treatment of gonorrhoea since 2005. We looked at surveillance data from England and Wales to ascertain the current usefulness of these drugs and to inform changes to national treatment guidelines. We obtained data from the Gonococcal Resistance to Antimicrobials Surveillance Programme (GRASP) for patients attending 26 genitourinary medicine clinics in England and Wales between 2007 and 2011. We did analyses with univariate and multivariable logistic regression methods to identify trends in susceptibility to cephalosporins and risk factors associated with infection with isolates with decreased susceptibility to cefixime, and we assessed changes in prescribing practices. We did molecular typing to investigate genetic relatedness of non-susceptible isolates. The prevalence of decreased susceptibility to both cefixime and ceftriaxone rose between 2007 and 2010 but was more noticeable for cefixime (an increase from 1·5% in 2007 to 17·1% in 2010), with a bimodal distribution of minimum inhibitory concentration recorded between 2009 and 2010. By multivariable analysis, isolates with decreased susceptibility to cefixime were associated with infection in men who have sex with men (odds ratio 5·47, 95% CI 3·99-7·48; p<0·0001) and year of isolation (in 2010, 13·08, 7·49-22·8; p<0·0001). Such isolates had a largely clonal population, with most belonging to genogroup G1407 and harbouring the penA mosaic gene. Data from 2011 showed a significant decline in prevalence of isolates with decreased cefixime susceptibility, falling from 17·1% in 2010 to 10·8% in 2011 (p<0·0001), concomitant with the change in prescribing practice in 2010 from cefixime to ceftriaxone

Detecting dryland degradation through the use of Time Series Segmentation and Residual Trend analysis (TSS-RESTREND)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burrell, A. L.; Evans, J. P.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

Dryland degradation is an issue of international significance as dryland regions play a substantial role in global food production. Remotely sensed data provide the only long term, large scale record of changes within dryland ecosystems. The Residual Trend, or RESTREND, method is applied to satellite observations to detect dryland degradation. Whilst effective in most cases, it has been shown that the RESTREND method can fail to identify degraded pixels if the relationship between vegetation and precipitation has broken-down as a result of severe or rapid degradation. This study presents an extended version of the RESTREND methodology that incorporates the Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend method to identify step changes in the time series that are related to significant structural changes in the ecosystem, e.g. land use changes. When applied to Australia, this new methodology, termed Time Series Segmentation and Residual Trend analysis (TSS-RESTREND), was able to detect degradation in 5.25% of pixels compared to only 2.0% for RESTREND alone. This modified methodology was then assessed in two regions with known histories of degradation where it was found to accurately capture both the timing and directionality of ecosystem change.

Cohort-specific trends in stroke mortality in seven European countries were related to infant mortality rates.

PubMed

Amiri, M; Kunst, A E; Janssen, F; Mackenbach, J P

2006-12-01

To assess, in a population-based study, whether secular trends in cardiovascular disease mortality in seven European countries were correlated with past trends in infant mortality rate (IMR) in these countries. Data on ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke mortality in 1950-1999 in the Netherlands, England & Wales, France, and four Nordic countries were analyzed. We used Poisson regression to describe trends in mortality according to birth cohort, for the cohorts born between 1860 and 1939. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated to determine associations between IMR and IHD, or stroke mortality. IHD mortality increased for successive cohorts up to 1900, and then started to decline. Stroke mortality levels were virtually stable among birth cohorts up to 1880, but declined rapidly among later cohorts. A strong positive association was found between cohort-specific IMR levels and stroke mortality rates. There were no strong cohort-wise associations between IMR and IHD mortality. These results support other studies in suggesting that living conditions in early childhood may influence population levels of stroke mortality. Future studies should determine the contribution of specific early life factors to the mortality decline in IHD and especially stroke.

Time trends of chronic HBV infection over prior decades - A global analysis.

PubMed

Ott, Jördis J; Horn, Johannes; Krause, Gérard; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T

2017-01-01

Information on trends in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevalence across countries is lacking. We studied changes in chronic HBV infection over previous decades by country, and assessed patterns of change between and within WHO-defined regions. Based on data from a published systematic review on chronic HBV, we applied a linear model on the logit scale to assess time trends in country-specific prevalence. Estimated HBsAg prevalence in 2000 and relative changes in prevalence over time were evaluated by country and region. Sufficient data were available for 50 countries, mostly showing reductions in prevalence over time. Various degrees of heterogeneity were observed within regions, with a relatively homogenous pattern in the Eastern Mediterranean region with strong decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Europe showed a mixed pattern: higher and stable chronic HBsAg prevalence in Eastern, and constantly low prevalence in Western Europe. In Africa, some countries demonstrated no change in prevalence; increases were seen in Uganda (odds ratio 1.05 per year; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.06), Nigeria (1.02; 1.02-1.02), Senegal (1.01; 1.01-1.02), and South Africa (1.02; 1.01-1.02). With some exceptions, country-patterns overlapped among countries of South East Asian and Western Pacific regions, characterized by low-medium HBsAg decreases, most prominent in China and Malaysia. Most countries experienced decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Dynamics varied, even within regions; decreases occurred mostly before the direct effects of childhood vaccination may have manifested. These findings together with stable and increasing HBsAg prevalence in some countries of Africa and Eastern Europe indicate the need for further tailored country-specific prevention. This study investigated time trends in prevalence of chronic HBV infection in 50 countries worldwide over the last decade, by estimating relative changes in prevalence. Results show decreases in chronic HBV infection in most countries

Effective data validation of high-frequency data: time-point-, time-interval-, and trend-based methods.

PubMed

Horn, W; Miksch, S; Egghart, G; Popow, C; Paky, F

1997-09-01

Real-time systems for monitoring and therapy planning, which receive their data from on-line monitoring equipment and computer-based patient records, require reliable data. Data validation has to utilize and combine a set of fast methods to detect, eliminate, and repair faulty data, which may lead to life-threatening conclusions. The strength of data validation results from the combination of numerical and knowledge-based methods applied to both continuously-assessed high-frequency data and discontinuously-assessed data. Dealing with high-frequency data, examining single measurements is not sufficient. It is essential to take into account the behavior of parameters over time. We present time-point-, time-interval-, and trend-based methods for validation and repair. These are complemented by time-independent methods for determining an overall reliability of measurements. The data validation benefits from the temporal data-abstraction process, which provides automatically derived qualitative values and patterns. The temporal abstraction is oriented on a context-sensitive and expectation-guided principle. Additional knowledge derived from domain experts forms an essential part for all of these methods. The methods are applied in the field of artificial ventilation of newborn infants. Examples from the real-time monitoring and therapy-planning system VIE-VENT illustrate the usefulness and effectiveness of the methods.

Twenty-five year socioeconomic trends in leisure-time and commuting physical activity among employed Finns.

PubMed

Mäkinen, T; Borodulin, K; Laatikainen, T; Fogelholm, M; Prättälä, R

2009-04-01

The trend of socioeconomic differences in physical activity is largely unknown in Finland. In this study, we examined socioeconomic trends in leisure-time and commuting physical activity among Finns in 1978-2002. Nationwide data were derived from an annually repeated cross-sectional Finnish Adult Health Behavior Survey. People under the age of 25, students, the unemployed, and retirees were excluded from the analysis. The final data set included 25 513 women and 25 302 men. Socioeconomic variables included education, occupation, and household income. Odds ratios for being physically active and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. People with the lowest income were less leisure-time and commuting physically active. Among women, low occupational status was associated with high commuting physical activity whereas among men such an association was not found. No educational differences among men in leisure-time and commuting physical activity over time were found. Some indications were found that educational differences in leisure-time physical activity among women might have been reversed. Our data suggest that socioeconomic differences in leisure-time and commuting physical activity are quite small and have remained similar between 1978 and 2002.

Development of time-trend model for analysing and predicting case pattern of dog bite injury induced rabies-like-illness in Liberia, 2014-2017.

PubMed

Jomah, N D; Ojo, J F; Odigie, E A; Olugasa, B O

2014-12-01

The post-civil war records of dog bite injuries (DBI) and rabies-like-illness (RLI) among humans in Liberia is a vital epidemiological resource for developing a predictive model to guide the allocation of resources towards human rabies control. Whereas DBI and RLI are high, they are largely under-reported. The objective of this study was to develop a time model of the case-pattern and apply it to derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of DBI-RLI cases. A retrospective 6 years data of DBI distribution among humans countrywide were converted to quarterly series using a transformation technique of Minimizing Squared First Difference statistic. The generated dataset was used to train a time-trend model of the DBI-RLI syndrome in Liberia. An additive detenninistic time-trend model was selected due to its performance compared to multiplication model of trend and seasonal movement. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict DBI cases for a prospective 4 years period, covering 2014-2017. The two-stage predictive model of DBI case-pattern between 2014 and 2017 was characterised by a uniform upward trend within Liberia's coastal and hinterland Counties over the forecast period. This paper describes a translational application of the time-trend distribution pattern of DBI epidemics, 2008-2013 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. A computationally feasible two-stage time-trend permutation approach is proposed to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on DBI-RLI in Liberia.

Time series trends of the safety effects of pavement resurfacing.

PubMed

Park, Juneyoung; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Jung-Han

2017-04-01

This study evaluated the safety performance of pavement resurfacing projects on urban arterials in Florida using the observational before and after approaches. The safety effects of pavement resurfacing were quantified in the crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimated based on different ranges of heavy vehicle traffic volume and time changes for different severity levels. In order to evaluate the variation of CMFs over time, crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were developed using nonlinear regression and time series models. The results showed that pavement resurfacing projects decrease crash frequency and are found to be more safety effective to reduce severe crashes in general. Moreover, the results of the general relationship between the safety effects and time changes indicated that the CMFs increase over time after the resurfacing treatment. It was also found that pavement resurfacing projects for the urban roadways with higher heavy vehicle volume rate are more safety effective than the roadways with lower heavy vehicle volume rate. Based on the exploration and comparison of the developed CMFucntions, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential functional form of the nonlinear regression models can be utilized to identify the trend of CMFs over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Family attitudes, actions, decisions and experiences following implementation of deemed consent and the Human Transplantation (Wales) Act 2013: mixed-method study protocol

PubMed Central

Noyes, Jane; Morgan, Karen; Walton, Phillip; Roberts, Abigail; Mclaughlin, Leah; Stephens, Michael

2017-01-01

Introduction The Human Transplantation (Wales) Act 2013 (the Act) introduced a ‘soft opt-out’ system of organ donation on 1 December 2015. Citizens are encouraged to make their organ donation decision known during their lifetime. In order to work, the Act and media campaign need to create a context, whereby organ donation becomes the norm, and create a mechanism for people to behave as intended (formally register their decision; consider appointing a representative; convey their donation decision to their families and friends or do nothing—deemed consent). In addition, family members/appointed representatives need to be able to put their own views aside to support the decision of their loved one. The aim of this study is to evaluate initial implementation, outcomes and impact on families and appointed representatives who were approached about organ donation during the first 18 months. Methods and analysis Prospective mixed-method coproductive study undertaken with National Health Service Blood and Transplant (NHSBT), and multiple patient/public representatives. The study is designed to collect information on all cases who meet specified criteria (≥18 years, deceased person voluntarily resident in Wales and died in Wales or England) whose family were approached between 1 December 2015 and 31 June 2017). Data for analysis include: NHSBT routinely collected anonymised audit data on all cases; Specialist Nurse in Organ Donation (SNOD) completed anonymised form for all cases documenting their perception of the families’ understanding of the Act, media campaign and outcome of the donation approach; questionnaires and depth interviews with any family member or appointed representative (minimum 50 cases). Additional focus groups and interviews with SNODs. Anonymised donation outcomes and registration activity reports for Wales provide additional context. Ethics and dissemination Approved by NHSBT Research, Innovation and Technology Advisory Group on 23 October

Family attitudes, actions, decisions and experiences following implementation of deemed consent and the Human Transplantation (Wales) Act 2013: mixed-method study protocol.

PubMed

Noyes, Jane; Morgan, Karen; Walton, Phillip; Roberts, Abigail; Mclaughlin, Leah; Stephens, Michael

2017-10-12

The Human Transplantation (Wales) Act 2013 (the Act) introduced a 'soft opt-out' system of organ donation on 1 December 2015. Citizens are encouraged to make their organ donation decision known during their lifetime. In order to work, the Act and media campaign need to create a context, whereby organ donation becomes the norm, and create a mechanism for people to behave as intended (formally register their decision; consider appointing a representative; convey their donation decision to their families and friends or do nothing-deemed consent). In addition, family members/appointed representatives need to be able to put their own views aside to support the decision of their loved one. The aim of this study is to evaluate initial implementation, outcomes and impact on families and appointed representatives who were approached about organ donation during the first 18 months. Prospective mixed-method coproductive study undertaken with National Health Service Blood and Transplant (NHSBT), and multiple patient/public representatives. The study is designed to collect information on all cases who meet specified criteria (≥18 years, deceased person voluntarily resident in Wales and died in Wales or England) whose family were approached between 1 December 2015 and 31 June 2017). Data for analysis include: NHSBT routinely collected anonymised audit data on all cases; Specialist Nurse in Organ Donation (SNOD) completed anonymised form for all cases documenting their perception of the families' understanding of the Act, media campaign and outcome of the donation approach; questionnaires and depth interviews with any family member or appointed representative (minimum 50 cases). Additional focus groups and interviews with SNODs. Anonymised donation outcomes and registration activity reports for Wales provide additional context. Approved by NHSBT Research, Innovation and Technology Advisory Group on 23 October 2015; Wales Research Ethics Committee 5 (IRAS190066; Rec Reference

Development of a time-trend model for analyzing and predicting case-pattern of Lassa fever epidemics in Liberia, 2013-2017.

PubMed

Olugasa, Babasola O; Odigie, Eugene A; Lawani, Mike; Ojo, Johnson F

2015-01-01

The objective was to develop a case-pattern model for Lassa fever (LF) among humans and derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of LF cases in Liberia in view of the prevailing under-reporting and public health challenge posed by the disease in the country. A retrospective 5 years data of LF distribution countrywide among humans were used to train a time-trend model of the disease in Liberia. A time-trend quadratic model was selected due to its goodness-of-fit (R2 = 0.89, and P < 0.05) and best performance compared to linear and exponential models. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict LF cases for a prospective 5 years period, covering 2013-2017. The two-stage predictive model of LF case-pattern between 2013 and 2017 was characterized by a prospective decline within the South-coast County of Grand Bassa over the forecast period and an upward case-trend within the Northern County of Nimba. Case specific exponential increase was predicted for the first 2 years (2013-2014) with a geometric increase over the next 3 years (2015-2017) in Nimba County. This paper describes a translational application of the space-time distribution pattern of LF epidemics, 2008-2012 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. We proposed a computationally feasible two-stage space-time permutation approach to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on LF in Liberia.

Incidence, circumstances, treatment and outcome of high-level cervical spinal fracture without associated spinal cord injury in New South Wales, Australia over a 12 year period.

PubMed

Mitchell, Rebecca J; Stanford, Ralph; McVeigh, Catherine; Bell, David; Close, Jacqueline C T

2014-01-01

No Australian population-based studies have examined temporal trends in the incidence of fracture of the first or second cervical vertebra (C1 or C2 fractures), their aetiology, treatment and outcome for younger (15-64 years) compared to older (65+ years) individuals. The aim of this research is to examine the circumstances, treatment and outcomes including mortality for C1 or C2 fractures without associated spinal cord injury by age group in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. A retrospective review of C1 or C2 vertebra fractures in individuals aged 15 years and over in the NSW Admitted Patient Data Collection from 1 July 1998 to 30 June 2010. Direct age standardised admission rates were calculated by cervical fracture type and by age group. Negative binomial regression was used to examine the statistical significance of changes in trend over time of hospitalised cervical fractures by age group. The annual rate of hospitalised C1 and C2 fractures without associated spinal cord injury for individuals aged 15 years and over in NSW was 2.3 per 100,000 population, with the rate estimated to increase by 5.3% each year. Those aged 85+ years had the highest rates of hospitalisation. For those aged 15-64 years, road trauma was the most common mechanism of injury, while for those aged 65+ years, a fall was the dominant mechanism of injury. The in-hospital mortality for individuals aged 65+ years was 11.8% compared to 0.7% for those aged 15-64 years. This study identified an estimated increasing trend in C1 and C2 fractures over time, particularly for older individuals. While younger individuals are commonly injured in road traffic accidents, older individuals are predominantly injured following a fall. Injury prevention strategies should be targeted to the different age groups and injury mechanisms. Implementation of effective falls prevention strategies is likely to reduce these injuries in older people whilst road and vehicle safety including vehicle rollover protection

Trends in Timing of Pregnancy Awareness Among US Women

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Objectives Early pregnancy detection is important for improving pregnancy outcomes as the first trimester is a critical window of fetal development; however, there has been no description of trends in timing of pregnancy awareness among US women. Methods We examined data from the 1995, 2002, 2006–2010 and 2011–2013 National Survey of Family Growth on self-reported timing of pregnancy awareness among women aged 15–44 years who reported at least one pregnancy in the 4 or 5 years prior to interview that did not result in induced abortion or adoption (n = 17, 406). We examined the associations between maternal characteristics and late pregnancy awareness (≥7 weeks’ gestation) using adjusted prevalence ratios from logistic regression models. Gestational age at time of pregnancy awareness (continuous) was regressed over year of pregnancy conception (1990–2012) in a linear model. Results Among all pregnancies reported, gestational age at time of pregnancy awareness was 5.5 weeks (standard error = 0.04) and the prevalence of late pregnancy awareness was 23 % (standard error = 1 %). Late pregnancy awareness decreased with maternal age, was more prevalent among non-Hispanic black and Hispanic women compared to non-Hispanic white women, and for unintended pregnancies versus those that were intended (p < 0.01). Mean time of pregnancy awareness did not change linearly over a 23-year time period after adjustment for maternal age at the time of conception (p < 0.16). Conclusions for Practice On average, timing of pregnancy awareness did not change linearly during 1990–2012 among US women and occurs later among certain groups of women who are at higher risk of adverse birth outcomes. PMID:27449777

Trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation time series over Greece: 1955-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marougianni, G.; Melas, D.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Anandranistakis, E.

2012-04-01

In this study, a database of air temperature and precipitation time series from the network of Hellenic National Meteorological Service has been developed in the framework of the project GEOCLIMA, co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009. Initially, a quality test was applied to the raw data and then missing observations have been imputed with a regularized, spatial-temporal expectation - maximization algorithm to complete the climatic record. Next, a quantile - matching algorithm was applied in order to verify the homogeneity of the data. The processed time series were used for the calculation of temporal annual and seasonal trends of air temperature and precipitation. Monthly maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation means at all available stations in Greece were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns for the longest common time period of homogenous data (1955 - 2010), applying the Mann-Kendall test. The majority of the examined stations showed a significant increase in the summer maximum and minimum temperatures; this could be possibly physically linked to the Etesian winds, because of the less frequent expansion of the low over the southeastern Mediterranean. Summer minimum temperatures have been increasing at a faster rate than that of summer maximum temperatures, reflecting an asymmetric change of extreme temperature distributions. Total annual precipitation has been significantly decreased at the stations located in western Greece, as well as in the southeast, while the remaining areas exhibit a non-significant negative trend. This reduction is very likely linked to the positive phase of the NAO that resulted in an increase in the frequency and persistence of anticyclones over the Mediterranean.

Modeling of time trends and interactions in vital rates using restricted regression splines.

PubMed

Heuer, C

1997-03-01

For the analysis of time trends in incidence and mortality rates, the age-period-cohort (apc) model has became a widely accepted method. The considered data are arranged in a two-way table by age group and calendar period, which are mostly subdivided into 5- or 10-year intervals. The disadvantage of this approach is the loss of information by data aggregation and the problems of estimating interactions in the two-way layout without replications. In this article we show how splines can be useful when yearly data, i.e., 1-year age groups and 1-year periods, are given. The estimated spline curves are still smooth and represent yearly changes in the time trends. Further, it is straightforward to include interaction terms by the tensor product of the spline functions. If the data are given in a nonrectangular table, e.g., 5-year age groups and 1-year periods, the period and cohort variables can be parameterized by splines, while the age variable is parameterized as fixed effect levels, which leads to a semiparametric apc model. An important methodological issue in developing the nonparametric and semiparametric models is stability of the estimated spline curve at the boundaries. Here cubic regression splines will be used, which are constrained to be linear in the tails. Another point of importance is the nonidentifiability problem due to the linear dependency of the three time variables. This will be handled by decomposing the basis of each spline by orthogonal projection into constant, linear, and nonlinear terms, as suggested by Holford (1983, Biometrics 39, 311-324) for the traditional apc model. The advantage of using splines for yearly data compared to the traditional approach for aggregated data is the more accurate curve estimation for the nonlinear trend changes and the simple way of modeling interactions between the time variables. The method will be demonstrated with hypothetical data as well as with cancer mortality data.

Television Viewing at Home: Age Trends in Visual Attention and Time with TV.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Daniel R.; And Others

1986-01-01

Decribes age trends in television viewing time and visual attention of children and adults videotaped in their homes for 10-day periods. Shows that the increase in visual attention to television during the preschool years is consistent with the theory that television program comprehensibility is a major determinant of attention in young children.…

Brief Report: Multilevel Analysis of School Smoking Policy and Pupil Smoking Behaviour in Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiium, Nora; Burgess, Stephen; Moore, Laurence

2011-01-01

A multilevel analysis of cross-sectional data from a survey involving 1941 pupils (in grades 10 and 11) and policy indicators developed from interviews with staff from 45 secondary schools in Wales examined the hypotheses that pupil smoking prevalence would be associated with: restrictive staff and pupil smoking policies; dissemination of school…

Ozone trends over the United States at different times of day

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Yingying; Lin, Jintai; He, Cenlin

2018-01-01

In the United States, the decline of summertime daytime peak ozone in the last 20 years has been clearly connected to reductions in anthropogenic emissions. However, questions remain about how and through what mechanisms ozone at other times of day have changed over recent decades. Here we analyze the interannual variability and trends of ozone at different hours of day, using observations from about 1000 US sites during 1990-2014. We find a clear diurnal cycle both in the magnitude of ozone trends and in the relative importance of climate variability versus anthropogenic emissions to ozone changes. Interannual climate variability has mainly been associated with the detrended fluctuation in the US annual daytime ozone over 1990-2014, with a much smaller effect on the nighttime ozone. Reductions in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides have led to substantial growth in the US annual average nighttime ozone due to reduced ozone titration, while the summertime daytime ozone has declined. Environmental policymaking might consider further improvements to reduce ozone levels at night and other non-peak hours.

Multivariate analysis of infant death in England and Wales in 2005-06, with focus on socio-economic status and deprivation.

PubMed

Oakley, Laura; Maconochie, Noreen; Doyle, Pat; Dattani, Nirupa; Moser, Kath

2009-01-01

Current health inequality targets include the goal of reducing the differential in infant mortality between social groups. This article reports on a multivariate analysis of risk factors for infant mortality, with specific focus on deprivation and socio-economic status. Data on all singleton live births in England and Wales in 2005-06 were used, and deprivation quintile (Carstairs index) was assigned to each birth using postcode at birth registration. Deprivation had a strong independent effect on infant mortality, risk of death tending to increase with increasing levels of deprivation. The strength of this relationship depended, however, on whether the babies were low birthweight, preterm or small-for-gestational-age. Trends of increasing mortality risk with increasing deprivation were strongest in the postneonatal period. Uniquely, this article reports the number and proportion of all infant deaths which would potentially be avoided if all levels of deprivation were reduced to that of the least deprived group. It estimates that one quarter of all infant deaths would potentially be avoided if deprivation levels were reduced in this way.

The future of life expectancy and life expectancy inequalities in England and Wales: Bayesian spatiotemporal forecasting

PubMed Central

Bennett, James E; Li, Guangquan; Foreman, Kyle; Best, Nicky; Kontis, Vasilis; Pearson, Clare; Hambly, Peter; Ezzati, Majid

2015-01-01

Summary Background To plan for pensions and health and social services, future mortality and life expectancy need to be forecast. Consistent forecasts for all subnational units within a country are very rare. Our aim was to forecast mortality and life expectancy for England and Wales' districts. Methods We developed Bayesian spatiotemporal models for forecasting of age-specific mortality and life expectancy at a local, small-area level. The models included components that accounted for mortality in relation to age, birth cohort, time, and space. We used geocoded mortality and population data between 1981 and 2012 from the Office for National Statistics together with the model with the smallest error to forecast age-specific death rates and life expectancy to 2030 for 375 of England and Wales' 376 districts. We measured model performance by withholding recent data and comparing forecasts with this withheld data. Findings Life expectancy at birth in England and Wales was 79·5 years (95% credible interval 79·5–79·6) for men and 83·3 years (83·3–83·4) for women in 2012. District life expectancies ranged between 75·2 years (74·9–75·6) and 83·4 years (82·1–84·8) for men and between 80·2 years (79·8–80·5) and 87·3 years (86·0–88·8) for women. Between 1981 and 2012, life expectancy increased by 8·2 years for men and 6·0 years for women, closing the female–male gap from 6·0 to 3·8 years. National life expectancy in 2030 is expected to reach 85·7 (84·2–87·4) years for men and 87·6 (86·7–88·9) years for women, further reducing the female advantage to 1·9 years. Life expectancy will reach or surpass 81·4 years for men and reach or surpass 84·5 years for women in every district by 2030. Longevity inequality across districts, measured as the difference between the 1st and 99th percentiles of district life expectancies, has risen since 1981, and is forecast to rise steadily to 8·3 years (6·8–9·7) for men and 8·3 years (7·1�

The impact of Australian legislative changes on synthetic cannabinoid exposures reported to the New South Wales Poisons Information Centre.

PubMed

Cairns, Rose; Brown, Jared A; Gunja, Naren; Buckley, Nicholas A

2017-05-01

The emergence of new psychoactive substances (NPS), including synthetic cannabinoid receptor agonists (SCRAs) poses novel challenges for drug regulation and public health. Misconceptions of safety and legality, coupled with the fact that NPS are undetectable on routine drugs screens contributes to their popularity. Concerns over the unpredictable toxicity and abuse potential of NPS has led to a variety of legislative responses worldwide. We wish to describe Australian trends in SCRA use, examining the effects of legislative changes on calls to Australia's largest poisons centre. A retrospective review of calls to the New South Wales Poisons Information Centre (NSWPIC). Cases occurring between 1 January 2010 and 30 June 2015 with documented use of SCRAs were included. There were 146 exposures to SCRAs recorded in the NSWPIC database. Federal bans of specific SCRA compounds in 2011/2012 had little impact on call volumes. State-based legislation introduced in 2013 banning specific brand names of SCRA products was followed by a dramatic, sustained decrease in exposures. The most common symptoms reported with SCRA use were tachycardia, vomiting, drowsiness, anxiety/panic, decreased level of consciousness, chest pain, agitation, hallucinations, confusion, seizures and hypertension. Banning of specific brand names of SCRA (timed with raids and social media campaigns) appears effective at reducing SCRA exposures. We postulate that this raised awareness within the community of the illegality of these substances while also reducing supply through bricks-and-mortar shops. These results could help inform future legislative responses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Remove, Rehabilitate, Return? The Use and Effectiveness of Behaviour Schools in New South Wales, Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Granite, Elizabeth; Graham, Linda J.

2012-01-01

Research indicates that enrolments in separate special educational settings for students with disruptive behaviour have increased in a number of educational jurisdictions internationally. Recent analysis of school enrolment data has identified a similar increase in the New South Wales (NSW) government school sector; however, questions have been…

Modern trends in Class III orthognathic treatment: A time series analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Chang-Hoon; Park, Hyun-Hee; Seo, Byoung-Moo; Lee, Shin-Jae

2017-03-01

To examine the current trends in surgical-orthodontic treatment for patients with Class III malocclusion using time-series analysis. The records of 2994 consecutive patients who underwent orthognathic surgery from January 1, 2004, through December 31, 2015, at Seoul National University Dental Hospital, Seoul, Korea, were reviewed. Clinical data from each surgical and orthodontic treatment record included patient's sex, age at the time of surgery, malocclusion classification, type of orthognathic surgical procedure, place where the orthodontic treatment was performed, orthodontic treatment modality, and time elapsed for pre- and postoperative orthodontic treatment. Out of the orthognathic surgery patients, 86% had Class III malocclusion. Among them, two-jaw surgeries have become by far the most common orthognathic surgical treatment these days. The age at the time of surgery and the number of new patients had seasonal variations, which demonstrated opposing patterns. There was neither positive nor negative correlation between pre- and postoperative orthodontic treatment time. Elapsed orthodontic treatment time for both before and after Class III orthognathic surgeries has been decreasing over the years. Results of the time series analysis might provide clinicians with some insights into current surgical and orthodontic management.

The Implementation of Crisis Resolution Home Treatment Teams in Wales: Results of the National Survey 2007-2008

PubMed Central

Jones, Richard; Jordan, Sue

2010-01-01

Background: In mental health nursing, Crisis Resolution and Home Treatment (CRHT) services are key components of the shift from in-patient to community care. CRHT has been developed mainly in urban settings, and deployment in more rural areas has not been examined. Aim: We aimed to evaluate CRHT services’ progress towards policy targets. Participants and Setting: All 18 CRHT teams in Wales were surveyed. Methods: A service profile questionnaire was distributed to team leaders. Findings: Fourteen of 18 teams responded in full. All but one were led by nurses, who formed the main professional group. All teams reported providing an alternative to hospital admission and assisting early discharge. With one exception, teams were ‘gatekeeping’ hospital beds. There was some divergence in clients seen, perceived impact of the service, operational hours, distances travelled, team structure, input of consultant psychiatrists and caseloads. We found some differences between the 8 urban teams and the 6 teams serving rural or mixed areas: rural teams travelled more, had fewer inpatient beds, and less medical input (0.067 compared to 0.688 whole time equivalents).. Most respondents felt that resource constraints were limiting further developments. Implications: Teams met standards for CHRT services in Wales; however, these are less onerous than those in England, particularly in relation to operational hours and staffing complement. As services develop, it will be important to ensure that rural and mixed areas receive the same level of input as urban areas. PMID:20502646

New South Wales annual vaccine-preventable disease report, 2012

PubMed Central

Spokes, Paula; Gilmour, Robin

2014-01-01

We aim to describe the epidemiology of selected vaccine-preventable diseases in New South Wales (NSW) for 2012. Data from the NSW Notifiable Conditions Information Management System were analysed by: local health district of residence, age, Aboriginality, vaccination status and organism, where available. Risk factor and vaccination status data were collected by public health units for cases following notification under the NSW Public Health Act 2010. The largest outbreak of measles since 1998 was reported in 2012. Pacific Islander and Aboriginal people were at higher risk as were infants less than 12 months of age. Notifications of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in children less than five years declined; however, the overall number of notifications for IPD increased. Mumps case notifications were also elevated. There were no Haemophilus influenzae type b case notifications in children less than five years of age for the first time since the vaccine was introduced. Invasive meningococcal disease case notifications were at their lowest rates since case notification began in 1991. Case notification rates for other selected vaccine-preventable diseases remained stable. Vaccine-preventable disease control is continually strengthening in NSW with notable successes in invasive bacterial infections. However, strengthening measles immunization in Pacific Islander and Aboriginal communities remains essential to maintain measles elimination. PMID:25077033

New South Wales annual vaccine-preventable disease report, 2012.

PubMed

Rosewell, Alexander; Spokes, Paula; Gilmour, Robin

2014-01-01

We aim to describe the epidemiology of selected vaccine-preventable diseases in New South Wales (NSW) for 2012. Data from the NSW Notifiable Conditions Information Management System were analysed by: local health district of residence, age, Aboriginality, vaccination status and organism, where available. Risk factor and vaccination status data were collected by public health units for cases following notification under the NSW Public Health Act 2010. The largest outbreak of measles since 1998 was reported in 2012. Pacific Islander and Aboriginal people were at higher risk as were infants less than 12 months of age. Notifications of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in children less than five years declined; however, the overall number of notifications for IPD increased. Mumps case notifications were also elevated. There were no Haemophilus influenzae type b case notifications in children less than five years of age for the first time since the vaccine was introduced. Invasive meningococcal disease case notifications were at their lowest rates since case notification began in 1991. Case notification rates for other selected vaccine-preventable diseases remained stable. Vaccine-preventable disease control is continually strengthening in NSW with notable successes in invasive bacterial infections. However, strengthening measles immunization in Pacific Islander and Aboriginal communities remains essential to maintain measles elimination.

Schisms in the church: National Health Service systems and institutional divergence in England and Wales.

PubMed

Hughes, David; Vincent-Jones, Peter

2008-12-01

Since devolution, the four countries of the United Kingdom have pursued strikingly different National Health Service (NHS) reforms. While England created a supply-side market more radical than the previous internal market system, Wales moved to a softer version of the purchaser/provider split emphasizing localism. This article deploys institutional theory to analyze the forces shaping change, and describes the hybrid forms of economic organization emerging, including the economic regulation model implemented in England. The schism that has resulted in separate NHS subsystems warrants a different analysis from the more familiar phenomenon of infield divergence. We argue that schism was triggered by political-regulatory influences rather than economic or other social institutional forces, and predict that other decentralized public health care systems may follow a similar path. While political-regulatory, normative, and cognitive institutional influences push in the same direction in Wales, the misalignment of political-regulatory and normative elements in England looks set to result in a period of organizational turbulence.

Culture care of Iranian immigrants in New South Wales, Australia: sharing transcultural nursing knowledge.

PubMed

Omeri, A

1997-01-01

Discovery and analysis of care meanings, expressions, and practices of Iranian Immigrants in New South Wales, Australia was the focus of this ethnonursing qualitative research. The purpose of the study was to systematically discover, describe and analyse the values, beliefs, and practices of Iranian immigrants in New South Wales, Australia. The aim of the investigation was to discover transcultural nursing knowledge to guide nurses and health professionals to provide culturally congruent nursing and health care to Iranians. Leininger's theory of Culture Care Diversity and Universality (Leininger, 1991) was used as the conceptual framework for the study. It was predicted that care meanings and expressions of Iranian immigrants would be influenced by their worldview, social structure features, language, and cultural values rooted in their long ethnohistorical past and reflected in their lifeways in Australia. Using the ethnonursing qualitative research method, key and general informants were purposefully selected among Iranian immigrants residing in New South Wales. Three care themes supported by a number of universal and some diverse patterns were identified for Iranian immigrants. The three themes were: (1) Care meant family and kinship ties (hambastegie) as expressed in daily lifeways and interactions with family, friends, and community; (2) Care as expressed in carrying out traditional urban gender roles (role-zan-o-mard) (Azadie zan) as well as in fulfilling emerging new role responsibilities related to equality for female Iranian immigrants; and (3) Care as preservation of Iranian identity (inhamoni, hamonandi) as expressed in traditional cultural events and health care practices. Leininger's (1991) three modes of actions and decisions were used to develop appropriate and culturally meaningful nursing care actions and decisions which were in harmony with the cultural beliefs of Iranian immigrants.

Assessing risk of non-compliance of phosphorus standards for lakes in England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duethmann, D.; Anthony, S.; Carvalho, L.; Spears, B.

2009-04-01

High population densities, use of inorganic fertilizer and intensive livestock agriculture have increased phosphorus loads to lakes, and accelerated eutrophication is a major pressure for many lakes. The EC Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires that good chemical and ecological quality is restored in all surface water bodies by 2015. Total phosphorus (TP) standards for lakes in England and Wales have been agreed recently, and our aim was to estimate what percentage of lakes in England and Wales is at risk of failing these standards. With measured lake phosphorus concentrations only being available for a small number of lakes, such an assessment had to be model based. The study also makes a source apportionment of phosphorus inputs into lakes. Phosphorus loads were estimated from a range of sources including agricultural loads, sewage effluents, septic tanks, diffuse urban sources, atmospheric deposition, groundwater and bank erosion. Lake phosphorus concentrations were predicted using the Vollenweider model, and the model framework was satisfactorily tested against available observed lake concentration data. Even though predictions for individual lakes remain uncertain, results for a population of lakes are considered as sufficiently robust. A scenario analysis was carried out to investigate to what extent reductions in phosphorus loads would increase the number of lakes achieving good ecological status in terms of TP standards. Applying the model to all lakes in England and Wales greater than 1 ha, it was calculated that under current conditions roughly two thirds of the lakes would fail the good ecological status with respect to phosphorus. According to our estimates, agricultural phosphorus loads represent the most frequent dominant source for the majority of catchments, but diffuse urban runoff also is important in many lakes. Sewage effluents are the most frequent dominant source for large lake catchments greater than 100 km². The evaluation in terms of

The Impact of Change on Research Libraries: The State Library of New South Wales.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brodie, Maxine

This paper discusses the impact of change on the State Library of New South Wales (Australia), a large public research library charged with the care and continuing use of a documentary heritage. The first section provides background on the State Library, including history, collection, mission, and use. The second section describes library clients,…

Trends in diagnosis of bipolar disorder: Have the boundaries changed?

PubMed

Sara, Grant E; Malhi, Gin S

2015-11-01

There are concerns that the diagnostic boundaries of bipolar disorder have expanded. This study seeks evidence of change in diagnostic practice at three boundaries: the 'lower' boundary with subclinical mood conditions, the 'lateral' boundary with other mental health conditions (psychotic, anxiety, substance and personality disorders) and the 'internal' boundary within affective disorders. Diagnoses recorded in health system administrative data collections were used as a measure of clinician diagnostic behaviour. We examined all diagnoses made by public (state operated) inpatient and community mental health services in New South Wales, Australia, from 2003 to 2014. A total of 31,746 people had at least one recorded diagnosis of bipolar disorder in the period. There was a significant upward trend in the age-standardised population rate of diagnosis of bipolar disorder. Bipolar disorders made up an increasing proportion of psychosis diagnoses. There was no increase in the rate of comorbid diagnosis of bipolar disorders with non-psychotic disorders or in the likelihood of diagnosis of bipolar disorder at first or subsequent episodes of depression. There were significant reductions in diagnoses of schizophrenia, particularly in younger people. There may be some increase in diagnoses of bipolar disorder in New South Wales public mental health services. However, some changes in diagnosis, particularly in younger adults, may reflect movement away from diagnoses of schizophrenia towards a range of other diagnoses, rather than specific movement towards bipolar disorder. Expansion of bipolar disorder may have been more marked in private practice settings and may have involved the poorly defined bipolar II subtype. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.

Lost in translation: reviewing the role of the discharge liaison nurse in Wales.

PubMed

Chandler, Lynda; Wyatt, Matt; Roberts, Iain

2010-02-01

In Wales, the National Leadership and Innovation Agency in Healthcare (NLIAH) Change Agent Team (CAT) has found that its service improvement methodology of Communities of Practice (CoP), where motivated frontline staff in health and social care come together to share issues and develop solutions to mutual problems, is a highly effective and informative tool. Health and social care organizations in Wales are in the process of working to develop processes and solutions to remedy the challenges they have over patients with long lengths of stay. This article shows how by speaking to the frontline staff, whose role it is to help people whose discharge is likely to be complex or problematic, they often have most insight into the solutions required to alleviate the situation. The learning in this article is that there is no one solution to improve the discharge process; however there are a number of small changes and improvements required, which if done consistently can have a significant impact. The findings here have been shared with Welsh government policy leads and health and social care executive teams to inform their planning and actions on how to resolve the challenge of reducing length of stay.

Shared Web Information Systems for Heritage in Scotland and Wales - Flexibility in Partnership

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, D.; McKeague, P.

2013-07-01

The Royal Commissions on the Ancient and Historical Monuments of Scotland and Wales were established in 1908 to investigate and record the archaeological and built heritage of their respective countries. The organisations have grown organically over the succeeding century, steadily developing their inventories and collections as card and paper indexes. Computerisation followed in the late 1980s and early 1990s, with RCAHMS releasing Canmore, an online searchable database, in 1998. Following a review of service provision in Wales, RCAHMW entered into partnership with RCAHMS in 2003 to deliver a database for their national inventories and collections. The resultant partnership enables both organisations to develop at their own pace whilst delivering efficiencies through a common experience and a shared IT infrastructure. Through innovative solutions the partnership has also delivered benefits to the wider historic environment community, providing online portals to a range of datasets, ultimately raising public awareness and appreciation of the heritage around them. Now celebrating its 10th year, Shared Web Information Systems for Heritage, or more simply SWISH, continues to underpin the work of both organisations in presenting information about the historic environment to the public.

Statistical significance approximation in local trend analysis of high-throughput time-series data using the theory of Markov chains.

PubMed

Xia, Li C; Ai, Dongmei; Cram, Jacob A; Liang, Xiaoyi; Fuhrman, Jed A; Sun, Fengzhu

2015-09-21

Local trend (i.e. shape) analysis of time series data reveals co-changing patterns in dynamics of biological systems. However, slow permutation procedures to evaluate the statistical significance of local trend scores have limited its applications to high-throughput time series data analysis, e.g., data from the next generation sequencing technology based studies. By extending the theories for the tail probability of the range of sum of Markovian random variables, we propose formulae for approximating the statistical significance of local trend scores. Using simulations and real data, we show that the approximate p-value is close to that obtained using a large number of permutations (starting at time points >20 with no delay and >30 with delay of at most three time steps) in that the non-zero decimals of the p-values obtained by the approximation and the permutations are mostly the same when the approximate p-value is less than 0.05. In addition, the approximate p-value is slightly larger than that based on permutations making hypothesis testing based on the approximate p-value conservative. The approximation enables efficient calculation of p-values for pairwise local trend analysis, making large scale all-versus-all comparisons possible. We also propose a hybrid approach by integrating the approximation and permutations to obtain accurate p-values for significantly associated pairs. We further demonstrate its use with the analysis of the Polymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) microbial community time series from high-throughput sequencing data and found interesting organism co-occurrence dynamic patterns. The software tool is integrated into the eLSA software package that now provides accelerated local trend and similarity analysis pipelines for time series data. The package is freely available from the eLSA website: http://bitbucket.org/charade/elsa.

Smoke-free legislation and the incidence of paediatric respiratory infections and wheezing/asthma: interrupted time series analyses in the four UK nations

PubMed Central

Been, Jasper V.; Szatkowski, Lisa; van Staa, Tjeerd-Pieter; Leufkens, Hubert G.; van Schayck, Onno C.; Sheikh, Aziz; de Vries, Frank; Souverein, Patrick

2015-01-01

We investigated the association between introduction of smoke-free legislation in the UK (March 2006 for Scotland, April 2007 for Wales and Northern Ireland, and July 2007 for England) and the incidence of respiratory diseases among children. We extracted monthly counts of new diagnoses of wheezing/asthma and RTIs among children aged 0–12 years from all general practices in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink during 1997–2012. Interrupted time series analyses were performed using generalised additive mixed models, adjusting for underlying incidence trends, population size changes, seasonal factors, and pandemic influenza, as appropriate. 366,642 new wheezing/asthma diagnoses and 4,324,789 RTIs were observed over 9,536,003 patient-years. There was no statistically significant change in the incidence of wheezing/asthma after introduction of smoke-free legislation in England (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.94, 95% CI 0.81–1.09) or any other UK country (Scotland: IRR 0.99, 95% CI 0.83–1.19; Wales: IRR 1.09, 95% CI 0.89–1.35; Northern Ireland: IRR 0.96, 95% CI 0.76–1.22). Similarly no statistically significant changes in RTI incidence were demonstrated (England: IRR 0.95, 95% CI 0.86–1.06; Scotland: IRR 0.96, 95% CI 0.83–1.11; Wales: IRR 0.97, 95% CI 0.86–1.09; Northern Ireland: IRR 0.90, 95% CI 0.79–1.03). There were no demonstrable reductions in the incidence of paediatric wheezing/asthma or RTIs following introduction of smoke-free legislation in the UK. PMID:26463498

Leprosy in England and Wales 1953-2012: surveillance and challenges in low incidence countries.

PubMed

Fulton, Nicholas; Anderson, Laura F; Watson, John M; Abubakar, Ibrahim

2016-05-03

To review all notified cases of leprosy in England and Wales between 1953 and 2012. National surveillance study of all reported cases. England and Wales. Number and characteristics of reported cases. During this period, a total of 1449 leprosy cases were notified. The incidence fell from 356 new cases notified between 1953 and 1962 to 139 new cases between 2003 and 2012. Where data were available, leprosy was more common in men, 15-45 year olds and those from the Indian subcontinent. There was considerable undernotification in 2001-2012. The high level of under-reporting indicates a need for improved surveillance in the UK. Public Health England, in collaboration with the UK Panel of Leprosy opinion, has revised the UK Memorandum on Leprosy in order to provide updated guidance on diagnostic procedures, treatment, case management, contact tracing and notification. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Incidence, time trends, laterality, indications, and pathological findings of unilateral oophorectomy before menopause

PubMed Central

Laughlin-Tommaso, Shannon K.; Stewart, Elizabeth A.; Grossardt, Brandon R.; Rocca, Liliana Gazzuola; Rocca, Walter A.

2013-01-01

Objective Unilateral oophorectomy (UO) is common, yet it remains understudied. We investigated trends in incidence rates, indications, and pathological differences in the right and left ovary in women younger than 50 years. Methods The Rochester Epidemiology Project medical records-linkage system was used to identify all women who underwent UO between 1950 and 2007 in Olmsted County, Minnesota (n=1,838). We studied incidence rates, indications, and pathology of UO by laterality and investigated trends over time. Results Pooling all oophorectomies over a 58-year period, the incidence of UO was higher than the incidence of bilateral oophorectomy through age 39 years; however, bilateral oophorectomy surpassed UO thereafter. The incidence of UO increased from 1950 to 1974 but decreased thereafter, and was surpassed by the rate of bilateral oophorectomy after 1979. Prior to 1985, left ovaries were removed more frequently than right ovaries both with and without a medical indication for UO. Ovaries removed with a medical indication showed pathologic differences between right and left, with endometriosis more common on the left. Ovaries removed without a medical indication did not differ in pathology by side. Conclusion There have been major trends in UO over 6 decades. Medically-indicated UO has been more common on the left due, in part, to the higher prevalence of endometriosis. However, UO without a medical indication has also been more common on the left as a result of surgical preferences and traditions. The long-term consequences of right or left UO on timing of menopause, morbidity, and mortality need further study. PMID:24067261

Geochemical and Sulfur-Isotopic Signatures of Volcanogenic Massive Sulfide Deposits on Prince of Wales Island and Vicinity, Southeastern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slack, John F.; Shanks, Wayne C.; Karl, Susan M.; Gemery, Pamela A.; Bittenbender, Peter E.; Ridley, W. Ian

2007-01-01

Stratabound volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) deposits on Prince of Wales Island and vicinity, southeastern Alaska, occur in two volcanosedimentary sequences of Late Proterozoic through Cambrian and of Ordovician through Early Silurian age. This study presents geochemical data on sulfide-rich samples, in situ laser-ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) of sulfide minerals, and sulfur-isotopic analyses of sulfides and sulfates (barite) for identifying and distinguishing between primary sea-floor signatures and later regional metamorphic overprints. These datasets are also used here in an attempt to discriminate the VMS deposits in the older Wales Group from those in the younger Moira Sound unit (new informal name). The Wales Group and its contained VMS deposits have been multiply deformed and metamorphosed from greenschist to amphibolite grade, whereas the Moira Sound unit and related VMS deposits are less deformed and generally less metamorphosed (lower to middle greenschist grade). Variations in the sulfide mineral assemblages and textures of the VMS deposits in both sequences reflect a combination of processes, including primary sea-floor mineralization and sub-sea-floor zone refining, followed by metamorphic recrystallization. Very coarse grained (>1 cm diam) sulfide minerals and abundant pyrrhotite are restricted to VMS deposits in a small area of the Wales Group, at Khayyam and Stumble-On, which record high-grade metamorphism of the sulfides. Geochemical and sulfur-isotopic data distinguish the VMS deposits in the Wales Group from those in the Moira Sound unit. Although base- and precious-metal contents vary widely in sulfide-rich samples from both sequences, samples from the Moira Sound generally have proportionately higher Ag contents relative to base metals and Au. In situ LA-ICP-MS analysis of trace elements in the sulfide minerals suggests that primary sea-floor hydrothermal signatures are preserved in some samples (for

Trends in Timing of Pregnancy Awareness Among US Women.

PubMed

Branum, Amy M; Ahrens, Katherine A

2017-04-01

Objectives Early pregnancy detection is important for improving pregnancy outcomes as the first trimester is a critical window of fetal development; however, there has been no description of trends in timing of pregnancy awareness among US women. Methods We examined data from the 1995, 2002, 2006-2010 and 2011-2013 National Survey of Family Growth on self-reported timing of pregnancy awareness among women aged 15-44 years who reported at least one pregnancy in the 4 or 5 years prior to interview that did not result in induced abortion or adoption (n = 17, 406). We examined the associations between maternal characteristics and late pregnancy awareness (≥7 weeks' gestation) using adjusted prevalence ratios from logistic regression models. Gestational age at time of pregnancy awareness (continuous) was regressed over year of pregnancy conception (1990-2012) in a linear model. Results Among all pregnancies reported, gestational age at time of pregnancy awareness was 5.5 weeks (standard error = 0.04) and the prevalence of late pregnancy awareness was 23 % (standard error = 1 %). Late pregnancy awareness decreased with maternal age, was more prevalent among non-Hispanic black and Hispanic women compared to non-Hispanic white women, and for unintended pregnancies versus those that were intended (p < 0.01). Mean time of pregnancy awareness did not change linearly over a 23-year time period after adjustment for maternal age at the time of conception (p < 0.16). Conclusions for Practice On average, timing of pregnancy awareness did not change linearly during 1990-2012 among US women and occurs later among certain groups of women who are at higher risk of adverse birth outcomes.

Deaths from pesticide poisoning in England and Wales: 1945-1989.

PubMed

Casey, P; Vale, J A

1994-02-01

1. Data on deaths from pesticide poisoning occurring in England and Wales between 1945 and 1989 (no data are available for 1954) have been collated; pesticides were responsible for only 1012 (1.1%) of the 87,385 deaths from poisoning (excluding those due to carbon monoxide) occurring over this 44 year period. At least 73% of all pesticide fatalities were due to suicide and overall there was a predominance of males (male:female ratio 2.4:1). No deaths from pesticide poisoning in children under 10 years have been reported since 1974 although almost 50% of suspected pesticide poisoning incidents involve this age group. 2. Herbicides were responsible for 787 (78%) fatal poisonings, 110 (11%) were caused by insecticides, 69 (6.8%) by rodenticides, 30 (3.0%) by wood preservatives and 16 (1.6%) by other pesticides. 3. The herbicide, paraquat, was responsible for 570 of 1012 (56%) deaths and, although there has been a progressive decline in the annual number of deaths from paraquat poisoning since 1982, paraquat remains the most common cause of fatal pesticide poisoning in England and Wales. 4. Sodium chlorate caused 113 (11.2%) deaths, most of these fatalities occurring between 1965 and 1983; only one death has been recorded since 1984. The phenoxyacetate herbicides resulted in 50 deaths; 2,4-D was implicated most commonly. Sixty-eight deaths were due to organophosphorus insecticides; demeton-S-methyl, malathion and mevinphos were involved most frequently. Only eight deaths resulted from organochlorine insecticides and two of these also involved an organophosphorus insecticide.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Depth-time interpolation of feature trends extracted from mobile microelectrode data with kernel functions.

PubMed

Wong, Stephen; Hargreaves, Eric L; Baltuch, Gordon H; Jaggi, Jurg L; Danish, Shabbar F

2012-01-01

Microelectrode recording (MER) is necessary for precision localization of target structures such as the subthalamic nucleus during deep brain stimulation (DBS) surgery. Attempts to automate this process have produced quantitative temporal trends (feature activity vs. time) extracted from mobile MER data. Our goal was to evaluate computational methods of generating spatial profiles (feature activity vs. depth) from temporal trends that would decouple automated MER localization from the clinical procedure and enhance functional localization in DBS surgery. We evaluated two methods of interpolation (standard vs. kernel) that generated spatial profiles from temporal trends. We compared interpolated spatial profiles to true spatial profiles that were calculated with depth windows, using correlation coefficient analysis. Excellent approximation of true spatial profiles is achieved by interpolation. Kernel-interpolated spatial profiles produced superior correlation coefficient values at optimal kernel widths (r = 0.932-0.940) compared to standard interpolation (r = 0.891). The choice of kernel function and kernel width resulted in trade-offs in smoothing and resolution. Interpolation of feature activity to create spatial profiles from temporal trends is accurate and can standardize and facilitate MER functional localization of subcortical structures. The methods are computationally efficient, enhancing localization without imposing additional constraints on the MER clinical procedure during DBS surgery. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Psychosocial stress and strategies for managing adversity: measuring population resilience in New South Wales, Australia.

PubMed

Taylor, Melanie; Barr, Margo; Stevens, Garry; Bryson-Taylor, Donald; Agho, Kingsley; Jacobs, Jennifer; Raphael, Beverley

2010-10-14

Populations around the world are facing an increasing number of adversities such as the global financial crisis, terrorism, conflict, and climate change. The aim of this paper was to investigate self-reported strategies and sources of support used to get through "tough times" in an Australian context and to identify patterns of response in the general population and differences in potentially vulnerable subgroups. Data were collected through a cross-sectional survey of the New South Wales population in Australia. The final sample consisted of 3,995 New South Wales residents aged 16 years and above who responded to the question: "What are the things that get you through tough times?" Respondents provided brief comments that were coded into 14 main subject-area categories. The most frequently reported responses were family and self (52%); friends and neighbors (21%); use of positive emotional and philosophical strategies (17%), such as sense of humor, determination, and the belief that things would get better; and religious beliefs (11%). The responses of four population subgroups were compared, based on gender, household income, level of psychological distress, and whether a language other than English was spoken at home. Women reported greater use of friends and neighbors and religious or spiritual beliefs for support, whereas men reported greater use of drinking/smoking and financial supports. Those with lower incomes reported greater reliance on positive emotional and philosophical strategies and on religious or spiritual beliefs. Those with high levels of psychological distress reported greater use of leisure interests and hobbies, drinking/smoking, and less use of positive lifestyle strategies, such as adequate sleep, relaxation, or work/life balance. Those who spoke a language other than English at home were less likely to report relying on self or others (family/friends) or positive emotional and philosophical strategies to get through tough times

The Pre-Incubator: A Longitudinal Study of 10 Years of University Pre-Incubation in Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Voisey, Pamela; Jones, Paul; Thomas, Brychan

2013-01-01

This paper describes a longitudinal study of over 10 years of university pre-incubation in Wales, using case studies of incubated businesses to track their performance since 2001. Surviving "graduated" businesses were investigated and quantitative and qualitative data were gathered to profile the current status of these businesses and…

Sex Differences in Criminal Homicide and Suicide in England and Wales and the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palmer, Stuart

1980-01-01

In England and Wales, females are more prone to commit suicide than homicide. Homicidal offenders are more likely to victimize members of their own families and decidedly more prone to kill themselves. These tendencies are tentatively related to the possible development of a subculture of self-directed violence. (Author)

To relieve the sufferings of humanity, irrespective of party, politics or creed?: conflict, consensus and voluntary hospital provision in Edwardian South Wales.

PubMed

Thompson, Steven

2003-08-01

This article examines the provision of voluntary hospital facilities for injured workers in the mining valleys of Edwardian South Wales. It considers the co-operation and conflict that characterized efforts to establish hospitals, and examines the attitudes and activities of workers, employers, and other interested groups. Despite certain instances of disagreement and conflict, this article demonstrates the significant levels of co-operation and consensus that characterized the efforts of employers and workers to provide communities with hospital facilities. This co-operation was perhaps surprising considering the bitter industrial conflict and social unrest of that period. The article uses this material to question assertions that hospitals reflect the social and political milieus of the communities in which they were situated and argues that the social relations produced by hospital provision sometimes coincided with wider social and industrial relations, but at other times differed from them or transcended them. Furthermore, the article demonstrates that the co-operation between employers and workers in the provision of hospitals in Edwardian South Wales did not stabilize social and industrial relations in the way that historians of associational voluntarism in other contexts have found.

Barriers to delivering extracurricular school sport and physical activity in Wales: a qualitative study of 5x60 officers' views and perspectives.

PubMed

Rainer, Paul; Griffiths, Robert; Cropley, Brendan; Jarvis, Stuart

2015-02-01

In light of recent reports, schools must be realistic in that physical activity recommendations cannot be met through curriculum PE alone. However, extracurricular PE and school sport has the potential to further promote physical activity in adolescents. Consequently, the Welsh Government, UK, proposed through its Climbing Higher strategy (2006) for secondary school children to achieve 60 minutes of physical activity a day. This was implemented through Sport Wales and the 5×60 scheme. This study aimed to examine the experiences of the 5×60 officers responsible for implementing the program, with a view to gain an understanding of the barriers associated with increasing participation in physical activity. Officers from 14 unitary authorities across Wales were interviewed using a socioecological approach that considered the impact of: personal behaviors, physical environment, social environment, and policy. Participants reported a number of challenges affecting the delivery of the program, including: availability of facilities, lack of support from senior management, time, and conflict with PE staff. This study suggests that current methods used by personnel to facilitate extracurricular school sport may not be the most appropriate, and future direction should consider the place and contribution of physical activity to young people's lives.

Automated data extraction from general practice records in an Australian setting: trends in influenza-like illness in sentinel general practices and emergency departments.

PubMed

Liljeqvist, Gösta T H; Staff, Michael; Puech, Michele; Blom, Hans; Torvaldsen, Siranda

2011-06-06

Influenza intelligence in New South Wales (NSW), Australia is derived mainly from emergency department (ED) presentations and hospital and intensive care admissions, which represent only a portion of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the population. A substantial amount of the remaining data lies hidden in general practice (GP) records. Previous attempts in Australia to gather ILI data from GPs have given them extra work. We explored the possibility of applying automated data extraction from GP records in sentinel surveillance in an Australian setting.The two research questions asked in designing the study were: Can syndromic ILI data be extracted automatically from routine GP data? How do ILI trends in sentinel general practice compare with ILI trends in EDs? We adapted a software program already capable of automated data extraction to identify records of patients with ILI in routine electronic GP records in two of the most commonly used commercial programs. This tool was applied in sentinel sites to gather retrospective data for May-October 2007-2009 and in real-time for the same interval in 2010. The data were compared with that provided by the Public Health Real-time Emergency Department Surveillance System (PHREDSS) and with ED data for the same periods. The GP surveillance tool identified seasonal trends in ILI both retrospectively and in near real-time. The curve of seasonal ILI was more responsive and less volatile than that of PHREDSS on a local area level. The number of weekly ILI presentations ranged from 8 to 128 at GP sites and from 0 to 18 in EDs in non-pandemic years. Automated data extraction from routine GP records offers a means to gather data without introducing any additional work for the practitioner. Adding this method to current surveillance programs will enhance their ability to monitor ILI and to detect early warning signals of new ILI events.

Missions Statements in Wales: The Impact of Markets and Policy on Congruence between Institutions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

James, Helen; Huisman, Jeroen

2009-01-01

This study seeks to compare the mission statements of higher education institutions in Wales as well as to compare these with regional level policy statements and demands from the market. The underlying idea is to reveal the extent to which mission statements actually differ and are (or are not) in line with such regional policies and market…

Language Policy and Governmentality in Businesses in Wales: A Continuum of Empowerment and Regulation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barakos, Elisabeth

2016-01-01

In this paper, I examine how language policy acts as a means of both empowering the Welsh language and the minority language worker and as a means of exerting power over them. For this purpose, the study focuses on a particular site: private sector businesses in Wales. Therein, I trace two major discursive processes: first, the Welsh Government's…

Prison Education in England and Wales. (2nd Revised Edition). Mendip Papers MP 022.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ripley, Paul

In response to prison disturbances in England and Wales in the late 1980s, the education program for prisoners was improved and more prisoners were given access to educational services. Although education is a relatively new phenomenon in the English and Welsh penal system, by the 20th century, education had become an integral part of prison life.…

Reading Minds: Adding Value to Services at the State Library of New South Wales.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burgess, Kerrie; Lake, Therese

This paper discusses the Research and Evaluation Program at the State Library of New South Wales (Australia) and what it has revealed about clients' notions of value and relevance. An overview is provided of the services that have been developed in order to meet clients expectations, including reading room services and the development of the 3Tier…

Effects of woody debris on anadromous salmonid habitat, Prince of Wales Island, southeast Alaska

Treesearch

Thomas E. Lisle

1986-01-01

Abstract - The effects of woody debris on anadromous salmonid habitat in eight streams on Prince of Wales Island, southeast Alaska, were investigated by comparing low-gradient (1-9%) first- or second-order streams flowing through either spruce-hemlock forests or 6-10-year-old clearcuts, and by observing changes after debris was selectively removed from clear-cut...

Post-16 and Post-18 Transitions of Young People with Visual Impairment in Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keil, Sue; Crews, Nicola

2008-01-01

This article gives an overview of a three-year qualitative study following the transition pathways of one blind and four partially sighted young people in Wales, beginning with the transition from compulsory to post-compulsory education at the age of 16. The study highlighted the inequity in provision for young people who remain in school sixth…

The National Behaviour and Attendance Review in Wales: Findings and Recommendations on School Attendance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reid, Ken

2009-01-01

This article presents the methodology and findings on school attendance obtained over two years from 2006 for the National Behaviour and Attendance Review in Wales. The review was led and chaired by the author and the report was presented to the Minister for Children, Lifelong Learning and Skills and the Welsh Assembly Government in May 2008. The…

Trends in, and factors associated with, HIV infection amongst tuberculosis patients in the era of anti-retroviral therapy: a retrospective study in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

PubMed

Winter, Joanne R; Stagg, Helen R; Smith, Colette J; Lalor, Maeve K; Davidson, Jennifer A; Brown, Alison E; Brown, James; Zenner, Dominik; Lipman, Marc; Pozniak, Anton; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Delpech, Valerie

2018-06-07

HIV increases the progression of latent tuberculosis (TB) infection to active disease and contributed to increased TB in the UK until 2004. We describe temporal trends in HIV infection amongst patients with TB and identify factors associated with HIV infection. We used national surveillance data of all TB cases reported in England, Wales and Northern Ireland from 2000 to 2014 and determined HIV status through record linkage to national HIV surveillance. We used logistic regression to identify associations between HIV and demographic, clinical and social factors. There were 106,829 cases of TB in adults (≥ 15 years) reported from 2000 to 2014. The number and proportion of TB patients infected with HIV decreased from 543/6782 (8.0%) in 2004 to 205/6461 (3.2%) in 2014. The proportion of patients diagnosed with HIV > 91 days prior to their TB diagnosis increased from 33.5% in 2000 to 60.2% in 2013. HIV infection was highest in people of black African ethnicity from countries with high HIV prevalence (32.3%), patients who misused drugs (8.1%) and patients with miliary or meningeal TB (17.2%). There has been an overall decrease in TB-HIV co-infection and a decline in the proportion of patients diagnosed simultaneously with both infections. However, high rates of HIV remain in some sub-populations of patients with TB, particularly black Africans born in countries with high HIV prevalence and people with a history of drug misuse. Whilst the current policy of testing all patients diagnosed with TB for HIV infection is important in ensuring appropriate management of TB patients, many of these TB cases would be preventable if HIV could be diagnosed before TB develops. Improving screening for both latent TB and HIV and ensuring early treatment of HIV in these populations could help prevent these TB cases. British HIV Association guidelines on latent TB testing for people with HIV from sub-Saharan Africa remain relevant, and latent TB screening for people with HIV with

Pregnancy-associated listeriosis in England and Wales.

PubMed

Awofisayo, A; Amar, C; Ruggles, R; Elson, R; Adak, G K; Mook, P; Grant, K A

2015-01-01

Listeriosis is a rare but severe foodborne disease with low morbidity and high case-fatality rates. Pregnant women, unborn and newborn babies are among the high-risk groups for listeriosis. We examined listeriosis cases reported to the enhanced surveillance system in England and Wales from 1990 to 2010 to identify risk factors influencing outcome. Cases were defined as pregnancy-associated if Listeria monocytogenes was isolated from a pregnant woman or newborn infants aged <28 days. Of the 3088 cases reported, pregnancy-associated listeriosis accounted for 462 (15%) cases and 315 cases resulted in a live birth. Several factors were identified as affecting the severity and outcome of listeriosis in pregnancy in both mother and child including: presence or absence of maternal symptoms, gestational age at onset of symptoms, and clinical presentation in the infant (meningitis or septicaemia). Deprivation, ethnicity and molecular serotype had no effect on outcome.

Suicide and political regime in New South Wales and Australia during the 20th century

PubMed Central

Page, A; Morrell, S; Taylor, R

2002-01-01

Study objective: Australia has had a two party parliamentary political system for most of the period since its Federation in 1901, dominated either by a social democratic (Labor) or a conservative ideological perspective. This paper investigates whether such political differences at Federal and State levels have influenced suicide rates in the state of New South Wales (NSW) for the period 1901–1998. Design: Federal government type, NSW State government type, and combinations of both Federal and NSW State government type were examined. Poisson regression models were stratified by sex and controlled for the effects of age, annual change in gross domestic product, sedative availability, drought, and both world wars. Results: When both Federal and NSW State governments were conservative the relative risk of suicide for NSW men was 1.17 (p<0.001) and for women 1.40 (p<0.001) compared with both governments being Labor (1.00). A statistically significant linear trend (p<0.001) in suicide risk was evident across the continuum of Federal/State government combinations, from both Labor (lowest), to mixed (intermediate), to both conservative (highest). Conclusion: Significantly higher suicide risk was associated with conservative government tenures compared with social democratic incumbents. Results are discussed in terms of the differences underpinning conservative and social democratic government programme ideology, and their relevance to Durkheim's theories of suicide, social regulation, and integration. PMID:12239203

Trends in Leisure Time Physical Activity among Young People in Finland, 1977-2007

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laakso, Lauri; Telama, Risto; Nupponen, Heimo; Rimpela, Arja; Pere, Lasse

2008-01-01

The decline in physical activity among young people has been discussed in the media during recent decades, although the scientific evidence for this has been scarce. The aim of this study was to investigate trends over 30 years in leisure time physical activity of Finnish boys and girls aged 12, 14, 16 and 18 years from 1977 to 2007. The data were…

Warming trends of perialpine lakes from homogenised time series of historical satellite and in-situ data.

PubMed

Pareeth, Sajid; Bresciani, Mariano; Buzzi, Fabio; Leoni, Barbara; Lepori, Fabio; Ludovisi, Alessandro; Morabito, Giuseppe; Adrian, Rita; Neteler, Markus; Salmaso, Nico

2017-02-01

The availability of more than thirty years of historical satellite data is a valuable source which could be used as an alternative to the sparse in-situ data. We developed a new homogenised time series of daily day time Lake Surface Water Temperature (LSWT) over the last thirty years (1986-2015) at a spatial resolution of 1km from thirteen polar orbiting satellites. The new homogenisation procedure implemented in this study corrects for the different acquisition times of the satellites standardizing the derived LSWT to 12:00 UTC. In this study, we developed new time series of LSWT for five large lakes in Italy and evaluated the product with in-situ data from the respective lakes. Furthermore, we estimated the long-term annual and summer trends, the temporal coherence of mean LSWT between the lakes, and studied the intra-annual variations and long-term trends from the newly developed LSWT time series. We found a regional warming trend at a rate of 0.017°Cyr -1 annually and 0.032°Cyr -1 during summer. Mean annual and summer LSWT temporal patterns in these lakes were found to be highly coherent. Amidst the reported rapid warming of lakes globally, it is important to understand the long-term variations of surface temperature at a regional scale. This study contributes a new method to derive long-term accurate LSWT for lakes with sparse in-situ data thereby facilitating understanding of regional level changes in lake's surface temperature. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) seroprevalence and current epidemiology in England and Wales.

PubMed

Collins, Sarah; Litt, David; Almond, Rachael; Findlow, Jamie; Linley, Ezra; Ramsay, Mary; Borrow, Ray; Ladhani, Shamez

2018-04-01

The implementation of the Hib conjugate vaccine in the United Kingdom in 1992 resulted in a rapid decline in invasive Hib disease across all age groups. However, a resurgence in 2000-2002 prompted the introduction of additional control measures, including a routine 12-month booster in 2006. Here we describe results from a national serosurvey in children eligible for the 12-month booster and recent Haemophilus influenzae epidemiology in England and Wales. A national serosurvey was performed to determine the prevalence of anti-polyribosyl-phosphate (anti-PRP) IgG antibodies in 1000 residual samples from children up to 8 years of age in 2013-2014. Data were compared to previous national serosurveys performed by the same laboratory. Current epidemiology of invasive H. influenzae disease in England and Wales is also reported. Median anti-PRP IgG concentrations were highest among 1 year olds at 4.4 µg/mL (IQR, 1.3-14.9; n = 99) and then declined rapidly but remained ≥1.0 µg/mL across the age-groups in the cohort eligible for the 12-month booster. Overall, 89% of children (719/817) had anti-PRP concentrations ≥0.15 µg/mL, the putative threshold for short-term protection against invasive Hib disease. During 2012-2016, annual Hib disease incidence remained below one case per million population, responsible for only 67 of 3523 laboratory-confirmed H. influenzae cases, including one case of Hib meningitis during the 5-year period. There were only two deaths within 30 days over the five-year period (case fatality rate, 3.0%). Hib control in England and Wales is currently the best achieved since the vaccine was introduced more than two decades ago. However, Hib antibodies wane rapidly after the 12 months booster. Although most children remain protected against disease, antibody levels may not be high enough to prevent carriage among toddlers. Ongoing monitoring is essential to inform future vaccination policy. Copyright © 2018 The British Infection Association. All

Experiences of Autism Spectrum Disorder and Policing in England and Wales: Surveying Police and the Autism Community.

PubMed

Crane, Laura; Maras, Katie L; Hawken, Tamsyn; Mulcahy, Sue; Memon, Amina

2016-06-01

An online survey gathered the experiences and views of 394 police officers (from England and Wales) regarding autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Just 42 % of officers were satisfied with how they had worked with individuals with ASD and reasons for this varied. Although officers acknowledged the need for adjustments, organisational/time constraints were cited as barriers. Whilst 37 % of officers had received training on ASD, a need for training tailored to policing roles (e.g., frontline officers, detectives) was identified. Police responses are discussed with respect to the experiences of the ASD community (31 adults with ASD, 49 parents), who were largely dissatisfied with their experience of the police and echoed the need for police training on ASD.

Drugs and other chemicals involved in fatal poisoning in England and Wales during 2000 – 2011.

PubMed

Handley, S A; Flanagan, R J

2014-01-01

Fatal poisoning data can reveal trends in the poisons encountered, which can help guide prescribing practices and product safety and other legislation, and more recently has helped to monitor the use of emerging drugs of abuse ( ‘ legal highs ’ ). We searched Mortality Statistics – Injury and poisoning, Series DH4 (2000 – 2005), Mortality Statistics – Deaths registered in England and Wales, Series DR (2006 – 2011), and the Office for National Statistics drug poisoning database for information on fatal poisoning during 2000 – 2011. We also searched the Pubmed database for ‘ fatal ’ and ‘ poisoning ’ and ‘ England ’ and ‘ Wales ’ : this search yielded seven papers that gave relevant information on deaths reported during 2000 – 2011 that were not superseded by later publications. DEATHS FROM POISONING: The annual number of deaths from poisoning fell from 2000 (3092) to 2010 (2749), before increasing to 3341 in 2011. This increase was due in part to a change in the ICD coding relating to alcohol poisoning, suggesting that such deaths had been under-recorded previously. Although fatalities from dextropropoxyphene declined (287 in 2004 and 18 in 2011) following the withdrawal of co-proxamol (paracetamol [acetaminophen] and dextropropoxyphene [propoxyphene] mixture) during 2005 – 2007, deaths involving codeine and most notably tramadol (836 deaths during 2000 – 2011) increased. Deaths from paracetamol poisoning either alone, or with alcohol reached 89 in 2011, the lowest annual figure since 1974. However, in reality there has been no marked downward trend since 1999 despite reductions in pack size, continued publicity as to the dangers of paracetamol overdose, and improved liver failure treatment, including transplantation. The annual number of deaths from antidepressants remained relatively stable (median: 397, range: 335 – 469). Although the number of deaths from dosulepin [dothiepin] decreased (186 in 2000 and 49 in 2011), the

Socio-demographic, ecological factors and dengue infection trends in Australia.

PubMed

Akter, Rokeya; Naish, Suchithra; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2017-01-01

Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia. This study has explored the spatio-temporal trends of dengue and potential socio- demographic and ecological determinants in Australia. Data on dengue cases, socio-demographic, climatic and land use types for the period January 1999 to December 2010 were collected from Australian National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, respectively. Descriptive and linear regression analyses were performed to observe the spatio-temporal trends of dengue, socio-demographic and ecological factors in Australia. A total of 5,853 dengue cases (both local and overseas acquired) were recorded across Australia between January 1999 and December 2010. Most the cases (53.0%) were reported from Queensland, followed by New South Wales (16.5%). Dengue outbreak was highest (54.2%) during 2008-2010. A highest percentage of overseas arrivals (29.9%), households having rainwater tanks (33.9%), Indigenous population (27.2%), separate houses (26.5%), terrace house types (26.9%) and economically advantage people (42.8%) were also observed during 2008-2010. Regression analyses demonstrate that there was an increasing trend of dengue incidence, potential socio-ecological factors such as overseas arrivals, number of households having rainwater tanks, housing types and land use types (e.g. intensive uses and production from dryland agriculture). Spatial variation of socio-demographic factors was also observed in this study. In near future, significant increase of temperature was also projected across Australia. The projected increased temperature as well as increased socio-ecological trend may pose a future threat to the local transmission of dengue in other parts of Australia if Aedes mosquitoes are being established. Therefore, upgraded mosquito and disease surveillance at different ports should

Passages to Literature: Essays on Teaching in Australia, Canada, England, the United States, and Wales.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Milner, Joseph O'Beirne, Ed.; Milner, Lucy Floyd Morcock, Ed.

Representing Australia, Canada, England, the United States, and Wales, this collection of essays focuses on ways in which teachers can adapt classroom activities and modify writing assignments to encourage personal response and exploration of texts. Essays, their authors, and nationalities are as follows: (1) "The River and Its Banks:…

Profession, "Performance", and Policy: Teachers, Examinations, and the State in England and Wales, 1846-1862

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knudsen, Andrew T.

2016-01-01

When historians discuss the impact of examinations on elementary education in mid-Victorian England and Wales they typically focus on the Revised Code of 1862. The Revised Code is famous for instituting a policy of "payment-by-results" for teachers in state-supported voluntary schools. "Payment-by-results" made government…

Counter-Geographies: The Campaign against Rationalisation of Agricultural Research Stations in New South Wales, Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gibson, Chris; Dufty, Rae; Phillips, Samantha; Smith, Heather

2008-01-01

This paper discusses an example of community action mounted in a rural region of New South Wales, Australia, in response to proposals by the State Government to rationalise agricultural research stations operated by the Department of Primary Industries. Informed by a Foucaultian understanding of power and the concept of governmentality,…

Making the economic case for prevention--a view from Wales.

PubMed

Hale, Janine; Phillips, Ceri J; Jewell, Tony

2012-06-20

It is widely acknowledged that adverse lifestyle behaviours in the population now will place an unsustainable burden on health service resources in the future. It has been estimated that the combined cost to the NHS in Wales of overweight and obesity, alcohol and tobacco is in excess of £540 million.In the current climate of financial austerity, there can be a tendency for the case for prevention efforts to be judged on the basis of their scope for cost savings. This paper was prompted by discussion in Wales about the evidence for the cost savings from prevention and early intervention and a resulting concern that these programmes were thus being evaluated in policy terms using an incorrect metric. Following a review of the literature, this paper contributes to the discussion of the potential role that economics can play in informing decisions in this area. This paper argues that whilst studies of the economic burden of diseases provide information about the magnitude of the problem faced, they should not be used as a means of priority setting. Similarly, studies discussing the likelihood of savings as a result of prevention programmes may be distorting the arguments for public health.Prevention spend needs to be considered purposefully, resulting in a strategic commitment to spending. The role of economics in this process is to provide evidence demonstrating that information and support can be provided cost effectively to individuals to change their lifestyles thus avoiding lifestyle related morbidity and mortality. There is growing evidence that prevention programmes represent value for money using the currently accepted techniques and decision making metrics such as those advocated by NICE. The issue here is not one of arguing that the economic evaluation of prevention and early intervention should be treated differently, although in some instances that may be appropriate, rather it is about making the case for these interventions to be treated and evaluated to

Measles outbreak linked to European B3 outbreaks, Wales, United Kingdom, 2017.

PubMed

Currie, Jonny; Davies, Llion; McCarthy, Joanne; Perry, Malorie; Moore, Catherine; Cottrell, Simon; Bowley, Mererid; Williams, Chris; Shankar, Ananda Giri; Stiff, Rhianwen

2017-10-01

The United Kingdom achieved interrupted endemic measles transmission for 36 months in 2016. Despite this, ongoing challenges from sporadic measles cases typically imported from abroad remain. We summarise a B3 measles genotype outbreak in south-east Wales occurring between May and September 2017, linked with other European outbreaks, and lessons learnt. Seventeen confirmed cases and one probable case occurred principally in education and healthcare-settings. Six confirmed cases attended healthcare settings when infectious, without being isolated.

The Radical Reform of Administrative Policies in New South Wales School Education: Practical and Theoretical Implications.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Macpherson, R. J. S.

The government of New South Wales (Australia) is attempting to enhance the quality of public education by radically altering management structures and practices. Despite some popular objections, political intervention was mandated and warranted due to excessive centralization in administrative policy making, curriculum development, and resource…

Linear and nonlinear trending and prediction for AVHRR time series data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smid, J.; Volf, P.; Slama, M.; Palus, M.

1995-01-01

The variability of AVHRR calibration coefficient in time was analyzed using algorithms of linear and non-linear time series analysis. Specifically we have used the spline trend modeling, autoregressive process analysis, incremental neural network learning algorithm and redundancy functional testing. The analysis performed on available AVHRR data sets revealed that (1) the calibration data have nonlinear dependencies, (2) the calibration data depend strongly on the target temperature, (3) both calibration coefficients and the temperature time series can be modeled, in the first approximation, as autonomous dynamical systems, (4) the high frequency residuals of the analyzed data sets can be best modeled as an autoregressive process of the 10th degree. We have dealt with a nonlinear identification problem and the problem of noise filtering (data smoothing). The system identification and filtering are significant problems for AVHRR data sets. The algorithms outlined in this study can be used for the future EOS missions. Prediction and smoothing algorithms for time series of calibration data provide a functional characterization of the data. Those algorithms can be particularly useful when calibration data are incomplete or sparse.

Time trends and epidemiological patterns of perinatal lamb mortality in Norway.

PubMed

Holmøy, Ingrid Hunter; Waage, Steinar

2015-09-30

Perinatal mortality is a major cause of loss in the sheep industry. Our aim was to explore time trends in crude population stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates in Norway. We used data on 6,435,715 lambs from flocks enrolled in the Norwegian Sheep Recording System (NSRS) from 2000 through 2010 for descriptive analysis of trends. Longitudinal patterns of mortality rates were compared for lambs within different levels of variables suspected to be associated with perinatal loss. There was an approximately linear increase in the annual proportion of stillborn lambs during the study period, from 3.3 % in 2000 to 4.7 % in 2010. In the same time period, average litter size of ewes in NSRS flocks increased from 2.00 to 2.19. However, a steady rise in stillbirth rate was observed within each litter size group, suggesting a gradually increasing impact on stillbirth risk of other, yet unidentified, factors. Average flock size increased during the study period. The highest stillbirth rates were found in the largest and smallest flocks. Early neonatal mortality rates (0-5 days of life) varied from year to year (minimum 2.2 %, maximum 3.2 %) and were invariably higher among triplets and quadruplets than among singletons and twins. Annual fluctuations were parallel within the various litter sizes. A significant overall decreasing trend was present within all litter sizes with the exception of singletons. Weather data for the prime lambing months (April and May) 2000-2010 indicated a relationship between low temperatures and high neonatal mortality rates. At the flock level, there was a significant positive correlation between stillbirths and early neonatal mortality rates (r = 0.13), between stillbirth rates in two consecutive years (r = 0.43) and between early neonatal mortality rates in two consecutive years (r = 0.40). The substantial increase in ovine stillbirth rate in recent years in Norway was to some extent related to a corresponding increase in the

Time Series Analysis of Onchocerciasis Data from Mexico: A Trend towards Elimination

PubMed Central

Pérez-Rodríguez, Miguel A.; Adeleke, Monsuru A.; Orozco-Algarra, María E.; Arrendondo-Jiménez, Juan I.; Guo, Xianwu

2013-01-01

Background In Latin America, there are 13 geographically isolated endemic foci distributed among Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil and Ecuador. The communities of the three endemic foci found within Mexico have been receiving ivermectin treatment since 1989. In this study, we predicted the trend of occurrence of cases in Mexico by applying time series analysis to monthly onchocerciasis data reported by the Mexican Secretariat of Health between 1988 and 2011 using the software R. Results A total of 15,584 cases were reported in Mexico from 1988 to 2011. The data of onchocerciasis cases are mainly from the main endemic foci of Chiapas and Oaxaca. The last case in Oaxaca was reported in 1998, but new cases were reported in the Chiapas foci up to 2011. Time series analysis performed for the foci in Mexico showed a decreasing trend of the disease over time. The best-fitted models with the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) were Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, which were used to predict the tendency of onchocerciasis cases for two years ahead. According to the ARIMA models predictions, the cases in very low number (below 1) are expected for the disease between 2012 and 2013 in Chiapas, the last endemic region in Mexico. Conclusion The endemic regions of Mexico evolved from high onchocerciasis-endemic states to the interruption of transmission due to the strategies followed by the MSH, based on treatment with ivermectin. The extremely low level of expected cases as predicted by ARIMA models for the next two years suggest that the onchocerciasis is being eliminated in Mexico. To our knowledge, it is the first study utilizing time series for predicting case dynamics of onchocerciasis, which could be used as a benchmark during monitoring and post-treatment surveillance. PMID:23459370

Young Offenders in New South Wales, Australia and the Need for Remedial Sexual Health Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mistler, Grant; Kirkwood, Kristie; Potter, Emily; Cashin, Andrew

2008-01-01

The 2005-2008 Australian National Sexually Transmissible Infections Strategy identifies young people as a key target group in need of sexual health education, screening and management. For young people who are in contact with the New South Wales (NSW) juvenile justice system, a dire need for remedial sexual health education exists. NSW young…

Listening to Teachers: Teacher and Student Roles in the New South Wales Sustainable Schools Programme

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kennelly, Julie; Taylor, Neil; Jenkins, Kathy

2008-01-01

This paper reports on an interview study of eight teachers engaged in the Sustainable Schools Programme (SSP) in New South Wales, Australia. Teacher views on key components of education for sustainability are compared with the underlying socially critical approach of the SSP and the NSW policy on environmental education. Their views on active…

Mortality among a Cohort of Persons with an Intellectual Disability in New South Wales, Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Florio, Tony; Trollor, Julian

2015-01-01

Objectives: The main objective of the study was to compare mortality for people with an intellectual disability (ID) to the general population in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. A second objective was to provide mortality data for people with an intellectual disability from NSW in a standardized format, which allows for international comparisons…

Preterm birth time trends in Europe: a study of 19 countries.

PubMed

Zeitlin, J; Szamotulska, K; Drewniak, N; Mohangoo, A D; Chalmers, J; Sakkeus, L; Irgens, L; Gatt, M; Gissler, M; Blondel, B

2013-10-01

To investigate time trends in preterm birth in Europe by multiplicity, gestational age, and onset of delivery. Analysis of aggregate data from routine sources. Nineteen European countries. Live births in 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008. Annual risk ratios of preterm birth in each country were estimated with year as a continuous variable for all births and by subgroup using log-binomial regression models. Overall preterm birth rate and rate by multiplicity, gestational age group, and spontaneous versus non-spontaneous (induced or prelabour caesarean section) onset of labour. Preterm birth rates rose in most countries, but the magnitude of these increases varied. Rises in the multiple birth rate as well as in the preterm birth rate for multiple births contributed to increases in the overall preterm birth rate. About half of countries experienced no change or decreases in the rates of singleton preterm birth. Where preterm birth rates rose, increases were no more prominent at 35-36 weeks of gestation than at 32-34 weeks of gestation. Variable trends were observed for spontaneous and non-spontaneous preterm births in the 13 countries with mode of onset data; increases were not solely attributed to non-spontaneous preterm births. There was a wide variation in preterm birth trends in European countries. Many countries maintained or reduced rates of singleton preterm birth over the past 15 years, challenging a widespread belief that rising rates are the norm. Understanding these cross-country differences could inform strategies for the prevention of preterm birth. © 2013 The Authors. BJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics & Gynaecology published by John Wiley and Sons on behalf of the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Preterm birth time trends in Europe: a study of 19 countries

PubMed Central

Zeitlin, J; Szamotulska, K; Drewniak, N; Mohangoo, AD; Chalmers, J; Sakkeus, L; Irgens, L; Gatt, M; Gissler, M; Blondel, B

2013-01-01

Objective To investigate time trends in preterm birth in Europe by multiplicity, gestational age, and onset of delivery. Design Analysis of aggregate data from routine sources. Setting Nineteen European countries. Population Live births in 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008. Methods Annual risk ratios of preterm birth in each country were estimated with year as a continuous variable for all births and by subgroup using log-binomial regression models. Main outcome measures Overall preterm birth rate and rate by multiplicity, gestational age group, and spontaneous versus non-spontaneous (induced or prelabour caesarean section) onset of labour. Results Preterm birth rates rose in most countries, but the magnitude of these increases varied. Rises in the multiple birth rate as well as in the preterm birth rate for multiple births contributed to increases in the overall preterm birth rate. About half of countries experienced no change or decreases in the rates of singleton preterm birth. Where preterm birth rates rose, increases were no more prominent at 35–36 weeks of gestation than at 32–34 weeks of gestation. Variable trends were observed for spontaneous and non-spontaneous preterm births in the 13 countries with mode of onset data; increases were not solely attributed to non-spontaneous preterm births. Conclusions There was a wide variation in preterm birth trends in European countries. Many countries maintained or reduced rates of singleton preterm birth over the past 15 years, challenging a widespread belief that rising rates are the norm. Understanding these cross-country differences could inform strategies for the prevention of preterm birth. PMID:23700966

The Communities Providing Religious Education and Catechesis to Polish Immigrants in England and Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Makosa, Pawel

2015-01-01

Since Poland's accession to the European Union in 2004, hundreds of thousands of Polish citizens have arrived in the UK in search of work, of which the majority landed in England and Wales. This process, although not as fast now, is still ongoing. The majority of immigrants from Poland are young people who start families and have children. Many of…

Different time trends of caloric and fat intake between statin users and nonusers among US adults: gluttony in the time of statins?

PubMed

Sugiyama, Takehiro; Tsugawa, Yusuke; Tseng, Chi-Hong; Kobayashi, Yasuki; Shapiro, Martin F

2014-07-01

Both dietary modification and use of statins can lower blood cholesterol. The increase in caloric intake among the general population is reported to have plateaued in the last decade, but no study has examined the relationship between the time trends of caloric intake and statin use. To examine the difference in the temporal trends of caloric and fat intake between statin users and nonusers among US adults. A repeated cross-sectional study in a nationally representative sample of 27,886 US adults, 20 years or older, from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999 through 2010. Statin use. Caloric and fat intake measured through 24-hour dietary recall. Generalized linear models with interaction term between survey cycle and statin use were constructed to investigate the time trends of dietary intake for statin users and nonusers after adjustment for possible confounders. We calculated model-adjusted caloric and fat intake using these models and examined if the time trends differed by statin use. Body mass index (BMI) changes were also compared between statin users and nonusers. In the 1999-2000 period, the caloric intake was significantly less for statin users compared with nonusers (2000 vs 2179 kcal/d; P = .007). The difference between the groups became smaller as time went by, and there was no statistical difference after the 2005-2006 period. Among statin users, caloric intake in the 2009-2010 period was 9.6% higher (95% CI, 1.8-18.1; P = .02) than that in the 1999-2000 period. In contrast, no significant change was observed among nonusers during the same study period. Statin users also consumed significantly less fat in the 1999-2000 period (71.7 vs 81.2 g/d; P = .003). Fat intake increased 14.4% among statin users (95% CI, 3.8-26.1; P = .007) while not changing significantly among nonusers. Also, BMI increased more among statin users (+1.3) than among nonusers (+0.4) in the adjusted model (P = .02). Caloric and fat intake

"Nurseries of Ignorance"? Private Adventure and Dame Schools for the Working Classes in Nineteenth-Century Wales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grigg, G. R.

2005-01-01

This article explores whether private adventure and dame schools were anything more than "nurseries of ignorance" in nineteenth-century Wales. It traces the origins, development and make-up of these small schools, through an analysis of educational reports, biographical material, census returns and other sources. Private adventure…

Assessing the Impact of Different Measurement Time Intervals on Observed Long-Term Wind Speed Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azorin-Molina, C.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; McVicar, T.; Jerez, S.; Revuelto, J.; López Moreno, J. I.

2014-12-01

During the last two decades climate studies have reported a tendency toward a decline in measured near-surface wind speed in some regions of Europe, North America, Asia and Australia. This weakening in observed wind speed has been recently termed "global stilling", showing a worldwide average trend of -0.140 m s-1 dec-1 during last 50-years. The precise cause of the "global stilling" remains largely uncertain and has been hypothetically attributed to several factors, mainly related to: (i) an increasing surface roughness (i.e. forest growth, land use changes, and urbanization); (ii) a slowdown in large-scale atmospheric circulation; (iii) instrumental drifts and technological improvements, maintenance, and shifts in measurements sites and calibration issues; (iv) sunlight dimming due to air pollution; and (v) astronomical changes. This study proposed a novel investigation aimed at analyzing how different measurement time intervals used to calculate a wind speed series can affect the sign and magnitude of long-term wind speed trends. For instance, National Weather Services across the globe estimate daily average wind speed using different time intervals and formulae that may affect the trend results. Firstly, we carried out a comprehensive review of wind studies reporting the sign and magnitude of wind speed trend and the sampling intervals used. Secondly, we analyzed near-surface wind speed trends recorded at 59 land-based stations across Spain comparing monthly mean wind speed series obtained from: (a) daily mean wind speed data averaged from standard 10-min mean observations at 0000, 0700, 1300 and 1800 UTC; and (b) average wind speed of 24 hourly measurements (i.e., wind run measurements) from 0000 to 2400 UTC. Thirdly and finally, we quantified the impact of anemometer drift (i.e. bearing malfunction) by presenting preliminary results (1-year of paired measurements) from a comparison of one new anemometer sensor against one malfunctioned anenometer sensor due

Trends in antibiotic resistance over time among pathogens from Canadian hospitals: results of the CANWARD study 2007-11.

PubMed

Lagacé-Wiens, Philippe R S; Adam, Heather J; Low, Donald E; Blondeau, Joseph M; Baxter, Melanie R; Denisuik, Andrew J; Nichol, Kimberly A; Walkty, Andrew; Karlowsky, James A; Mulvey, Michael R; Hoban, Daryl J; Zhanel, George G

2013-05-01

Antimicrobial resistance patterns change over time and longitudinal surveillance studies provide insight into these trends. We sought to describe the important trends in antimicrobial resistance in key pathogens across Canada to provide useful information to clinicians, policy makers and industry, to assist in optimizing antimicrobial therapy, formulary choices and drug development. We analysed longitudinal data from the CANWARD study using a multivariate regression model to control for possible effects of patient demographics on resistance, in order to assess the impact of time on antimicrobial resistance independent of other measured variables. We identified several key trends in common pathogens. In particular, we observed a statistically significant increase in the proportion of Escherichia coli isolates that were resistant to extended-spectrum cephalosporins and fluoroquinolones, an increase in the proportion of Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates that were resistant to extended-spectrum cephalosporins, a reduction in the proportion of Staphylococcus aureus that were methicillin, clindamycin and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole resistant, and a reduction in the proportion of Pseudomonas aeruginosa that were fluoroquinolone and gentamicin resistant. Although some of these trends, such as the dramatic increase in fluoroquinolone and cephalosporin resistance in E. coli, can be attributed to the emergence and global spread of resistant clones (e.g. ST131 E. coli), others remain unexplained. However, recognizing these trends remains important to guide changes in empirical antimicrobial therapy and drug development.

Masculinity and domesticity in 1930s South Wales: did unemployment change the domestic division of labour?

PubMed

Penlington, Neil

2010-01-01

This article examines masculinity in an area suffering from sustained high unemployment and unremitting hardship during the 1930s: the South Wales coalfield had some of the highest rates of male unemployment and the lowest participation rates of married women in paid employment in Britain. Particular attention is drawn to power relations between husband and wife by looking at the domestic division of labour and whether male unemployment affected the split in domestic responsibilities. Personal testimonies are used to assess how men filled their time whilst unemployed and the meanings they attached to their activities and relationships. It will be shown that some unemployed men engaged more in the home and that many men were able to maintain existing power relations with their wives by finding or creating alternative manual work and maintaining an elastic relationship with the home by continuing to spend the majority of their time in the company of other men.

Analysis of geographical disparities in temporal trends of health outcomes using space-time joinpoint regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goovaerts, Pierre

2013-06-01

Analyzing temporal trends in health outcomes can provide a more comprehensive picture of the burden of a disease like cancer and generate new insights about the impact of various interventions. In the United States such an analysis is increasingly conducted using joinpoint regression outside a spatial framework, which overlooks the existence of significant variation among U.S. counties and states with regard to the incidence of cancer. This paper presents several innovative ways to account for space in joinpoint regression: (1) prior filtering of noise in the data by binomial kriging and use of the kriging variance as measure of reliability in weighted least-square regression, (2) detection of significant boundaries between adjacent counties based on tests of parallelism of time trends and confidence intervals of annual percent change of rates, and (3) creation of spatially compact groups of counties with similar temporal trends through the application of hierarchical cluster analysis to the results of boundary analysis. The approach is illustrated using time series of proportions of prostate cancer late-stage cases diagnosed yearly in every county of Florida since 1980s. The annual percent change (APC) in late-stage diagnosis and the onset years for significant declines vary greatly across Florida. Most counties with non-significant average APC are located in the north-western part of Florida, known as the Panhandle, which is more rural than other parts of Florida. The number of significant boundaries peaked in the early 1990s when prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test became widely available, a temporal trend that suggests the existence of geographical disparities in the implementation and/or impact of the new screening procedure, in particular as it began available.

Preventative services offered by veterinarians on sheep farms in England and Wales: Opinions and drivers for proactive flock health planning.

PubMed

Bellet, Camille; Woodnutt, Joanna; Green, Laura E; Kaler, Jasmeet

2015-12-01

Recent independent UK government reports and studies have highlighted the importance, but lack, of flock health services provided by veterinarians. Qualitative interviews were analysed by thematic analysis to construct belief statements to understand veterinarians' opinions on preventative advice and drivers for current services to sheep farmers. A postal questionnaire was sent to 515 sheep practices registered with the Royal College of Veterinary Surgeon (RCVS) in England and Wales in 2012 to gather quantitative data on these belief statements and to gather demographic information and current services provided by the veterinarian. Exploratory factor analysis with heuristic approaches was conducted on the respondents' belief statements to identify common factors of veterinarian beliefs. Three main factors were identified: motivation for proactiveness, perceived capability to offer preventative services and perceived opportunity to deliver these services. A beta regression model was built to identify the factors significantly associated with the time veterinarians spent in an advisory role. The relative proportion of time increased by 10% (1.01-1.19), 16% (1.03-1.30) and 29% (CI: 1.09-1.53) for each unit increase in score for factor 1 motivation, factor 2 capability and factor 3 opportunity respectively, indicating that these latent factors explained time veterinarians spent in an advisory role with sheep clients. There was a significant correlation between these factors suggesting influence of the associated beliefs between factors. This study provides insight into the nature and drivers of veterinarians' current behaviour and beliefs. These results could be further tested in behaviour intervention studies and help in designing efficient strategies aiming at promoting proactive health services offered by veterinarians on sheep farms in England and Wales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Causes of blind and partial sight certifications in England and Wales: April 2007-March 2008.

PubMed

Bunce, C; Xing, W; Wormald, R

2010-11-01

The last complete report on causes of blindness in England and Wales was for the data collected during April 1999-March 2000. This study updates these figures, with data collected during April 2007-March 2008. In England and Wales, registration for blindness and partial sight is initiated with certification by a consultant ophthalmologist with the consent of the patient. The main cause of visual impairment was ascertained where possible for all certificates completed during April 2007-March 2008 and a proportional comparison with 1999-2000 figures was made. We received 23,185 Certificates of Vision Impairment (CVIs), of which 9823 were for severe sight impairment (blindness) (SSI) and 12,607 were for sight impairment (partial sight) (SI). These totals were considerably lower than the numbers certified in the year ending 31 March 2000. In 16.6% of CVIs, there were multiple causes of visual impairment as compared with 3% of BD8s in 2000. Degeneration of the macula and posterior pole (mostly age-related macular degeneration (AMD)) contributed to vision impairment in 12,746 newly certified blind or partially sighted. AMD is still by far the leading cause of certified visual loss in England and Wales. Proportional comparisons are hampered by the increasing use of multiple pathology as a main cause of visual impairment, which is believed to have arisen owing to the change in certificate used for data collection. These figures are not estimates of the total numbers newly blind in the UK because not all those entitled to certification are offered and or accept it, but they do nevertheless document the number of people who are deemed to be sufficiently sight impaired to warrant support and have been both offered and accepted it. This is usually the case when no further ophthalmic intervention is thought likely to be of benefit in terms of restoring or improving vision.

Numbers Talk--Words Count: Language Policy and Adult Numeracy Education in Wales and New Zealand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coben, Diana; Miller-Reilly, Barbara

2014-01-01

In this paper we review and compare language policy in relation to adult numeracy education in Wales and New Zealand with respect to the Maori and Welsh languages in the latest stage of our international comparative study of adult numeracy education. While much has been written about the relationship between language and literacy, the relationship…

Coho Salmon populations in the Karst landscape of north Prince of Wales Island, southeast Alaska.

Treesearch

M.D. Bryant; D.N. Swanston

1998-01-01

Karst topography is a unique and distinct landscape and its geology may have important implications for salmon productivity in streams. The relationship between salmonid communities and water chemistry and the influence of habitat was examined in a set of streams on north Prince of Wales Island, southeast Alaska. Streams in karst landscapes showed higher alkalinities (...

Does selective migration alter socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in Wales?: a record-linked total population e-cohort study.

PubMed

Gartner, Andrea; Farewell, Daniel; Greene, Giles; Trefan, Laszlo; Davies, Alisha; Fone, David; Paranjothy, Shantini

2018-08-01

Recent studies found evidence of health selective migration whereby healthy people move to less deprived areas and less healthy people move to or stay in more deprived areas. There is no consensus, however, on whether this influences health inequalities. Measures of socio-economic inequalities in mortality and life expectancy are widely used by government and health services to track changes over time but do not consider the effect of migration. This study aims to investigate whether and to what extent migration altered the observed socioeconomic gradient in mortality. Data for the population of Wales (3,136,881) registered with the National Health Service on 01/01/2006 and follow-up for 24 quarters were individually record-linked to ONS mortality files. This included moves between lower super output areas (LSOAs), deprivation quintiles and rural-urban class at each quarter, age, sex, and date of death. Cox regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios for the deprivation quintiles in all-cause mortality, as well as deprivation change between the start and end of the study. We found evidence of health selective migration in some groups, for example people aged under 75 leaving the most deprived areas having a higher mortality risk than those they left behind, suggesting widening inequalities, but also found the opposite pattern for other migration groups. For all ages, those who lived in the most deprived quintile had a 57% higher risk of death than those in the least deprived quintile, allowing deprivation to vary with moves over time. There was little change in this risk when people were artificially kept in their deprivation quintile of origin (54% higher). Overall, migration during the six year window did not substantially alter the deprivation gradient in mortality in Wales between 2006 and 2011.

Professional ideologies and the development of syringe exchange: Wales as a case study.

PubMed

Keene, J M; Stimson, G V

1997-12-01

This paper is derived from an evaluative study of HIV prevention programs for drug injectors across Wales. It considers how different professional territories and ideologies, concepts of drug misuse and models of HIV prevention may influence policy development. The research involved monitoring the introduction and development of agency and community based syringe exchange schemes and initiatives taken by community pharmacists. Interviews with staff, managers and administrators, and descriptions of service history, development and delivery inform the discussion. HIV prevention varied in different areas of Wales depending on the particular professional group involved, local ideologies regarding drug use treatment, and the extent to which HIV prevention was seen either as a specialist area of expertise and specific remit of drug workers or a generic health care task. Drug agencies with an abstinence policy rejected syringe exchange; instead, prevention in those areas developed in ad hoc ways as health care workers and pharmacists attempted to develop a community based service. Drug agencies with a pre-existing harm minimisation model easily integrated syringe exchange into their work and played the major part in establishing the service, but there was difficulty in extending it beyond their professional caseloads. As there were disincentives to use treatment agencies, and their catchment areas were limited, these factors influenced effective service provision.

Clinical experience of scoring criteria for Familial Hypercholesterolaemia (FH) genetic testing in Wales.

PubMed

Haralambos, K; Whatley, S D; Edwards, R; Gingell, R; Townsend, D; Ashfield-Watt, P; Lansberg, P; Datta, D B N; McDowell, I F W

2015-05-01

Familial Hypercholesterolaemia (FH) is caused by mutations in genes of the Low Density Lipoprotein (LDL) receptor pathway. A definitive diagnosis of FH can be made by the demonstration of a pathogenic mutation. The Wales FH service has developed scoring criteria to guide selection of patients for DNA testing, for those referred to clinics with hypercholesterolaemia. The criteria are based on a modification of the Dutch Lipid Clinic scoring criteria and utilise a combination of lipid values, physical signs, personal and family history of premature cardiovascular disease. They are intended to provide clinical guidance and enable resources to be targeted in a cost effective manner. 623 patients who presented to lipid clinics across Wales had DNA testing following application of these criteria. The proportion of patients with a pathogenic mutation ranged from 4% in those scoring 5 or less up to 85% in those scoring 15 or more. LDL-cholesterol was the strongest discriminatory factor. Scores gained from physical signs, family history, coronary heart disease, and triglycerides also showed a gradient in mutation pick-up rate according to the score. These criteria provide a useful tool to guide selection of patients for DNA testing when applied by health professionals who have clinical experience of FH. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of 2008 global economic crisis on suicide: time trend study in 54 countries.

PubMed

Chang, Shu-Sen; Stuckler, David; Yip, Paul; Gunnell, David

2013-09-17

To investigate the impact of the 2008 global economic crisis on international trends in suicide and to identify sex/age groups and countries most affected. Time trend analysis comparing the actual number of suicides in 2009 with the number that would be expected based on trends before the crisis (2000-07). Suicide data from 54 countries; for 53 data were available in the World Health Organization mortality database and for one (the United States) data came the CDC online database. People aged 15 or above. Suicide rate and number of excess suicides in 2009. There were an estimated 4884 (95% confidence interval 3907 to 5860) excess suicides in 2009 compared with the number expected based on previous trends (2000-07). The increases in suicide mainly occurred in men in the 27 European and 18 American countries; the suicide rates were 4.2% (3.4% to 5.1%) and 6.4% (5.4% to 7.5%) higher, respectively, in 2009 than expected if earlier trends had continued. For women, there was no change in European countries and the increase in the Americas was smaller than in men (2.3%). Rises in European men were highest in those aged 15-24 (11.7%), while in American countries men aged 45-64 showed the largest increase (5.2%). Rises in national suicide rates in men seemed to be associated with the magnitude of increases in unemployment, particularly in countries with low levels of unemployment before the crisis (Spearman's rs=0.48). After the 2008 economic crisis, rates of suicide increased in the European and American countries studied, particularly in men and in countries with higher levels of job loss.

Investigating the impact of the English health inequalities strategy: time trend analysis.

PubMed

Barr, Ben; Higgerson, James; Whitehead, Margaret

2017-07-26

Objective  To investigate whether the English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical health inequalities, compared with trends before and after the strategy. Design  Time trend analysis. Setting  Two groups of lower tier local authorities in England. The most deprived, bottom fifth and the rest of England. Intervention  The English health inequalities strategy-a cross government strategy implemented between 1997 and 2010 to reduce health inequalities in England. Trends in geographical health inequalities were assessed before (1983-2003), during (2004-12), and after (2013-15) the strategy using segmented linear regression. Main outcome measure  Geographical health inequalities measured as the relative and absolute differences in male and female life expectancy at birth between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country. Results  Before the strategy the gap in male and female life expectancy between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country increased at a rate of 0.57 months each year (95% confidence interval 0.40 to 0.74 months) and 0.30 months each year (0.12 to 0.48 months). During the strategy period this trend reversed and the gap in life expectancy for men reduced by 0.91 months each year (0.54 to 1.27 months) and for women by 0.50 months each year (0.15 to 0.86 months). Since the end of the strategy period the inequality gap has increased again at a rate of 0.68 months each year (-0.20 to 1.56 months) for men and 0.31 months each year (-0.26 to 0.88) for women. By 2012 the gap in male life expectancy was 1.2 years smaller (95% confidence interval 0.8 to 1.5 years smaller) and the gap in female life expectancy was 0.6 years smaller (0.3 to 1.0 years smaller) than it would have been if the trends in inequalities before the strategy had continued. Conclusion  The English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical inequalities

Changing trends in reproductive/lifestyle factors in UK women: descriptive study within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS)