What are the implications of rapid global warming for landslide-triggered turbidity current activity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clare, Michael; Peter, Talling; James, Hunt

2014-05-01

A geologically short-lived (~170kyr) episode of global warming occurred at ~55Ma, termed the Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum (IETM). Global temperatures rose by up to 8oC over only ~10kyr and a massive perturbation of the global carbon cycle occurred; creating a negative carbon isotopic (~-4% δ13C) excursion in sedimentary records. This interval has relevance to study of future climate change and its influence on geohazards including submarine landslides and turbidity currents. We analyse the recurrence frequency of turbidity currents, potentially initiated from large-volume slope failures. The study focuses on two sedimentary intervals that straddle the IETM and we discuss implications for turbidity current triggering. We present the results of statistical analyses (regression, generalised linear model, and proportional hazards model) for extensive turbidite records from an outcrop at Zumaia in NE Spain (N=285; 54.0 to 56.5 Ma) and based on ODP site 1068 on the Iberian Margin (N=1571; 48.2 to 67.6 Ma). The sedimentary sequences provide clear differentiation between hemipelagic and turbiditic mud with only negligible evidence of erosion. We infer dates for turbidites by converting hemipelagic bed thicknesses to time using interval-averaged accumulation rates. Multi-proxy dating techniques provide good age constraint. The background trend for the Zumaia record shows a near-exponential distribution of turbidite recurrence intervals, while the Iberian Margin shows a log-normal response. This is interpreted to be related to regional time-independence (exponential) and the effects of additive processes (log-normal). We discuss how a log-normal response may actually be generated over geological timescales from multiple shorter periods of random turbidite recurrence. The IETM interval shows a dramatic departure from both these background trends, however. This is marked by prolonged hiatuses (0.1 and 0.6 Myr duration) in turbidity current activity in contrast to the

Current warming will reduce yields unless maize breeding and seed systems adapt immediately

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Challinor, A. J.; Koehler, A.-K.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Whitfield, S.; Das, B.

2016-10-01

The development of crop varieties that are better suited to new climatic conditions is vital for future food production. Increases in mean temperature accelerate crop development, resulting in shorter crop durations and reduced time to accumulate biomass and yield. The process of breeding, delivery and adoption (BDA) of new maize varieties can take up to 30 years. Here, we assess for the first time the implications of warming during the BDA process by using five bias-corrected global climate models and four representative concentration pathways with realistic scenarios of maize BDA times in Africa. The results show that the projected difference in temperature between the start and end of the maize BDA cycle results in shorter crop durations that are outside current variability. Both adaptation and mitigation can reduce duration loss. In particular, climate projections have the potential to provide target elevated temperatures for breeding. Whilst options for reducing BDA time are highly context dependent, common threads include improved recording and sharing of data across regions for the whole BDA cycle, streamlining of regulation, and capacity building. Finally, we show that the results have implications for maize across the tropics, where similar shortening of duration is projected.

What Sets the Radial Locations of Warm Debris Disks?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ballering, Nicholas P.; Rieke, George H.; Su, Kate Y. L.

The architectures of debris disks encode the history of planet formation in these systems. Studies of debris disks via their spectral energy distributions (SEDs) have found infrared excesses arising from cold dust, warm dust, or a combination of the two. The cold outer belts of many systems have been imaged, facilitating their study in great detail. Far less is known about the warm components, including the origin of the dust. The regularity of the disk temperatures indicates an underlying structure that may be linked to the water snow line. If the dust is generated from collisions in an exo-asteroid belt,more » the dust will likely trace the location of the water snow line in the primordial protoplanetary disk where planetesimal growth was enhanced. If instead the warm dust arises from the inward transport from a reservoir of icy material farther out in the system, the dust location is expected to be set by the current snow line. We analyze the SEDs of a large sample of debris disks with warm components. We find that warm components in single-component systems (those without detectable cold components) follow the primordial snow line rather than the current snow line, so they likely arise from exo-asteroid belts. While the locations of many warm components in two-component systems are also consistent with the primordial snow line, there is more diversity among these systems, suggesting additional effects play a role.« less

Warm debris disks candidates in transiting planets systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribas, Á.; Merín, B.; Ardila, D. R.; Bouy, H.

2012-05-01

We have bandmerged candidate transiting planetary systems (from the Kepler satellite) and confirmed transiting planetary systems (from the literature) with the recent Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) preliminary release catalog. We have found 13 stars showing infrared excesses at either 12 μm and/or 22 μm. Without longer wavelength observations it is not possible to conclusively determine the nature of the excesses, although we argue that they are likely due to debris disks around the stars. If confirmed, our sample ~doubles the number of currently known warm excess disks around old main sequence stars. The ratios between the measured fluxes and the stellar photospheres are generally larger than expected for Gyr-old stars, such as these planetary hosts. Assuming temperature limits for the dust and emission from large dust particles, we derive estimates for the disk radii. These values are comparable to the planet's semi-major axis, suggesting that the planets may be stirring the planetesimals in the system.

Warm Anomaly Effects on California Current Phytoplankton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez Ocampo, E.; Gaxiola-Castro, G.; Beier, E.; Durazo, R.

2016-02-01

Positive temperature anomalies were reported in the NE Pacific Ocean since the boreal winter of 2013-2014. Previous studies showed that these anomalies were caused by lower than normal rates of heat loss from the ocean to the atmosphere and by relatively weak cold water advection to the upper ocean. Anomalous Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Absolute Dynamic Topography (ADT), and Chlorophyll (CHL) obtained from monthly remote sensing data were registered in the California Current region during August 2014. Anomalies appeared around the coastal and oceanic zones, particularly in the onshore zone between Monterey Bay, California and Magdalena Bay, Baja California. High positive SST anomalous values up to 4ºC above the long-term mean, 20 cm in ADT, and less of 4.5 mg m-3 of CHL were registered. Changes of 20 cm in ADT above the average are equivalent to 50 m thermocline deepening considering typical values of stratification for the area, which in turn influenced the availability of nutrients and light for phytoplankton growth in the euphotic zone. To examine the influence of the warm anomaly on phytoplankton production, we fitted with Generalized Additive Models the relationship between monthly primary production satellite data and ADT. Primary production inferred from the model, showed during August 2014 high negative anomalies (up to 0.5 gC m-2 d1) in the coastal zone. The first empirical orthogonal function of ADT and PP revealed that the highest ADT anomalies and the lowest primary production occurred off the Baja California Peninsula, between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas. Preliminary conclusions showed that warm anomaly affected negatively to phytoplankton organisms during August 2014, being this evident by low biomass and negative primary production anomalies as result of pycnocline deepens.

High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land

PubMed Central

Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M.

2016-01-01

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or “committed” warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state. PMID:27461560

High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land.

PubMed

Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M

2016-07-27

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or "committed" warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state.

High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M.

2016-07-01

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or “committed” warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state.

Nonlinear interaction of the Tsugaru Warm Current and tide in the Tsugaru Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Ryota; Waseda, Takuji; Nanjo, Hirotada

2012-06-01

The Tsugaru Strait, which connects the Sea of Japan with the Pacific Ocean, is characterized by the eastward Tsugaru Warm Current (TWC) and oscillating tidal currents of similar magnitude. A 15-day current observation was conducted in one of the two narrow channels in the strait, at the northwest tip of the Shimokita Peninsula. The observation revealed that the spectral energy of the semidiurnal current exceeds that of the diurnal current, contrary to the conventional view. The Tsugaru Strait regional model was developed to study the mechanism of this spectral energy reversal (140-141.5° E, 40.4-42.6° N, 500 m grid resolution). At the eastern and western open boundaries, the model was driven by the constant Tsugaru warm current and tidal elevation, which was adjusted by comparing the model with tidal gauge observations within the channel. The relative magnitude of the spectral energies differed from that of the observation when the model was driven by tide only. However, the spectral energy levels were reversed when the model was driven by both tide and current. The nonlinear interaction of periodic tidal currents and the steady TWC was explained by the vorticity equation, which describes the production and advection of residual currents from tidal currents. According to the model results, flow separation and advection of vorticity by the TWC was the most prominent factor in this phenomenon. Because of the strong nonlinearities, flow separation around the headland occurred during the tidal period with dominant current magnitude and furnished the main difference between the diurnal and semidiurnal interactions. These phenomena were enhanced by the complex topography, and demonstrate the importance of scale interaction, especially when developing high-resolution regional models.

Indian Ocean warming during 1958-2004 simulated by a climate system model and its mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Wu, Bo

2014-01-01

The mechanism responsible for Indian Ocean Sea surface temperature (SST) basin-wide warming trend during 1958-2004 is studied based on both observational data analysis and numerical experiments with a climate system model FGOALS-gl. To quantitatively estimate the relative contributions of external forcing (anthropogenic and natural forcing) and internal variability, three sets of numerical experiments are conducted, viz. an all forcing run forced by both anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols) and natural forcing (solar constant and volcanic aerosols), a natural forcing run driven by only natural forcing, and a pre-industrial control run. The model results are compared to the observations. The results show that the observed warming trend during 1958-2004 (0.5 K (47-year)-1) is largely attributed to the external forcing (more than 90 % of the total trend), while the residual is attributed to the internal variability. Model results indicate that the anthropogenic forcing accounts for approximately 98.8 % contribution of the external forcing trend. Heat budget analysis shows that the surface latent heat flux due to atmosphere and surface longwave radiation, which are mainly associated with anthropogenic forcing, are in favor of the basin-wide warming trend. The basin-wide warming is not spatially uniform, but with an equatorial IOD-like pattern in climate model. The atmospheric processes, oceanic processes and climatological latent heat flux together form an equatorial IOD-like warming pattern, and the oceanic process is the most important in forming the zonal dipole pattern. Both the anthropogenic forcing and natural forcing result in easterly wind anomalies over the equator, which reduce the wind speed, thereby lead to less evaporation and warmer SST in the equatorial western basin. Based on Bjerknes feedback, the easterly wind anomalies uplift the thermocline, which is unfavorable to SST warming in the eastern basin, and contribute to SST

Infrared heater system for warming tropical forest understory plants and soils.

PubMed

Kimball, Bruce A; Alonso-Rodríguez, Aura M; Cavaleri, Molly A; Reed, Sasha C; González, Grizelle; Wood, Tana E

2018-02-01

The response of tropical forests to global warming is one of the largest uncertainties in predicting the future carbon balance of Earth. To determine the likely effects of elevated temperatures on tropical forest understory plants and soils, as well as other ecosystems, an infrared (IR) heater system was developed to provide in situ warming for the Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. Three replicate heated 4-m-diameter plots were warmed to maintain a 4°C increase in understory vegetation compared to three unheated control plots, as sensed by IR thermometers. The equipment was larger than any used previously and was subjected to challenges different from those of many temperate ecosystem warming systems, including frequent power surges and outages, high humidity, heavy rains, hurricanes, saturated clayey soils, and steep slopes. The system was able to maintain the target 4.0°C increase in hourly average vegetation temperatures to within ± 0.1°C. The vegetation was heterogeneous and on a 21° slope, which decreased uniformity of the warming treatment on the plots; yet, the green leaves were fairly uniformly warmed, and there was little difference among 0-10 cm depth soil temperatures at the plot centers, edges, and midway between. Soil temperatures at the 40-50 cm depth increased about 3°C compared to the controls after a month of warming. As expected, the soil in the heated plots dried faster than that of the control plots, but the average soil moisture remained adequate for the plants. The TRACE heating system produced an adequately uniform warming precisely controlled down to at least 50-cm soil depth, thereby creating a treatment that allows for assessing mechanistic responses of tropical plants and soil to warming, with applicability to other ecosystems. No physical obstacles to scaling the approach to taller vegetation (i.e., trees) and larger plots were observed.

Global warming effects: future feasibility of current cooling equipment for animal houses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valiño, V.; Perdigones, A.; García, J. L.; de La Plaza, S.

2009-04-01

Interest in global warming effects on the agricultural systems is currently high, especially in areas which are likely to be more affected by this temperature rising, i.e. the Mediterranean area (IPCC, 2008). According to this report, the model projections of surface warming predict a temperature increase between 0.5°C to 1.5°C in the European area by the period 2020-2029. The aim of the present work was to assess the future consequences of the global warming effect on the feasibility of the cooling equipment in animal houses. Several equipment combinations were compared by means of modelling the inside climate in fattening pig houses, including forced ventilation and cooling pad. The modelling was carried out for six different European locations: Spain, Greece, Italy, The Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom, for the today conditions; secondly, the global warming effect in the inside climate was considered in a second set of simulations, and a mean temperature rising of 2°C was taken into account. Climate data. The six European locations were: Madrid (Spain); Aliartos (Greece); Bedford (The United Kingdom); Schipol (The Netherlands); Milan (Italy); and Stuttgart (Germany). From every location, the available climate data were monthly mean temperature (To; °C); monthly mean relative humidity (HRo, %) and monthly mean solar irradiation on horizontal surface (So; W m-2). From these monthly values, hourly means were calculated resulting in 24 data for a typical day, each month. Climate model. In this study, cooling strategies resulted from the combination of natural ventilation, mechanical ventilation and cooling pads. The climate model was developed taking into account the following energy fluxes: solar radiation, ventilation (Seginer, 2002), animal heat losses (Blanes and Pedersen, 2005), and loss of energy due to the cooling pads (Seginer, 2002). Results for the present work, show a comparative scene of the inside climate by using different cooling

Human Milk Warming Temperatures Using a Simulation of Currently Available Storage and Warming Methods

PubMed Central

Bransburg-Zabary, Sharron; Virozub, Alexander; Mimouni, Francis B.

2015-01-01

Human milk handling guidelines are very demanding, based upon solid scientific evidence that handling methods can make a real difference in infant health and nutrition. Indeed, properly stored milk maintains many of its unique qualities and continues to be the second and third best infant feeding alternatives, much superior to artificial feeding. Container type and shape, mode of steering, amount of air exposure and storage temperature may adversely affect milk stability and composition. Heating above physiological temperatures significantly impacts nutritional and immunological properties of milk. In spite of this knowledge, there are no strict guidelines regarding milk warming. Human milk is often heated in electrical-based bottle warmers that can exceed 80°C, a temperature at which many beneficial human milk properties disappear. High temperatures can also induce fat profile variations as compared with fresh human milk. In this manuscript we estimate the amount of damage due to overheating during warming using a heat flow simulation of a regular water based bottle warmer. To do so, we carried out a series of warming simulations which provided us with dynamic temperature fields within bottled milk. We simulated the use of a hot water-bath at 80°C to heat bottled refrigerated milk (60ml and 178 ml) to demonstrate that large milk portions are overheated (above 40°C). It seems that the contemporary storage method (upright feeding tool, i.e. bottle) and bottle warming device, are not optimize to preserve the unique properties of human milk. Health workers and parents should be aware of this problem especially when it relates to sick neonates and preemies that cannot be directly fed at the breast. PMID:26061694

A Conceptual Framework for Planning Systemic Human Adaptation to Global Warming.

PubMed

Tait, Peter W; Hanna, Elizabeth G

2015-08-31

Human activity is having multiple, inter-related effects on ecosystems. Greenhouse gas emissions persisting along current trajectories threaten to significantly alter human society. At 0.85 °C of anthropogenic warming, deleterious human impacts are acutely evident. Additional warming of 0.5 °C-1.0 °C from already emitted CO₂ will further intensify extreme heat and damaging storm events. Failing to sufficiently address this trend will have a heavy human toll directly and indirectly on health. Along with mitigation efforts, societal adaptation to a warmer world is imperative. Adaptation efforts need to be significantly upscaled to prepare society to lessen the public health effects of rising temperatures. Modifying societal behaviour is inherently complex and presents a major policy challenge. We propose a social systems framework for conceptualizing adaptation that maps out three domains within the adaptation policy landscape: acclimatisation, behavioural adaptation and technological adaptation, which operate at societal and personal levels. We propose that overlaying this framework on a systems approach to societal change planning methods will enhance governments' capacity and efficacy in strategic planning for adaptation. This conceptual framework provides a policy oriented planning assessment tool that will help planners match interventions to the behaviours being targeted for change. We provide illustrative examples to demonstrate the framework's application as a planning tool.

Counterintuitive effects of global warming-induced wind patterns on primary production in the Northern Humboldt Current System.

PubMed

Mogollón, Rodrigo; R Calil, Paulo H

2018-07-01

It has been hypothesized that global warming will strengthen upwelling-favorable winds in the Northern Humboldt Current System (NHCS) as a consequence of the increase of the land-sea thermal gradient along the Peruvian coast. The effect of strengthened winds in this region is assessed with the use of a coupled physical-biogeochemical model forced with projected and climatological winds. Strengthened winds induce an increase in primary production of 2% per latitudinal degree from 9.5°S to 5°S. In some important coastal upwelling sites primary production is reduced. This is due to a complex balance between nutrient availability, nutrient use efficiency, as well as eddy- and wind-driven factors. Mesoscale activity induces a net offshore transport of inorganic nutrients, thus reducing primary production in the coastal upwelling region. Wind mixing, in general disadvantageous for primary producers, leads to shorter residence times in the southern and central coastal zones. Overall, instead of a proportional enhancement in primary production due to increased winds, the NHCS becomes only 5% more productive (+5 mol C m -2 year -1 ), 10% less limited by nutrients and 15% less efficient due to eddy-driven effects. It is found that regions with a initial strong nutrient limitation are more efficient in terms of nutrient assimilation which makes them more resilient in face of the acceleration of the upwelling circulation. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Military Implications of Global Warming.

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-05-20

U.S. environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current U.S. Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate...for military involvement to reduce global warming . Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the U.S. military. As the United

A Conceptual Framework for Planning Systemic Human Adaptation to Global Warming

PubMed Central

Tait, Peter W.; Hanna, Elizabeth G.

2015-01-01

Human activity is having multiple, inter-related effects on ecosystems. Greenhouse gas emissions persisting along current trajectories threaten to significantly alter human society. At 0.85 °C of anthropogenic warming, deleterious human impacts are acutely evident. Additional warming of 0.5 °C–1.0 °C from already emitted CO2 will further intensify extreme heat and damaging storm events. Failing to sufficiently address this trend will have a heavy human toll directly and indirectly on health. Along with mitigation efforts, societal adaptation to a warmer world is imperative. Adaptation efforts need to be significantly upscaled to prepare society to lessen the public health effects of rising temperatures. Modifying societal behaviour is inherently complex and presents a major policy challenge. We propose a social systems framework for conceptualizing adaptation that maps out three domains within the adaptation policy landscape: acclimatisation, behavioural adaptation and technological adaptation, which operate at societal and personal levels. We propose that overlaying this framework on a systems approach to societal change planning methods will enhance governments’ capacity and efficacy in strategic planning for adaptation. This conceptual framework provides a policy oriented planning assessment tool that will help planners match interventions to the behaviours being targeted for change. We provide illustrative examples to demonstrate the framework’s application as a planning tool. PMID:26334285

Infrared heater system for warming tropical forest understory plants and soils

Treesearch

Bruce A. Kimball; Aura M. Alonso-Rodríguez; Molly A. Cavaleri; Sasha C. Reed; Grizelle González; Tana E. Wood

2018-01-01

The response of tropical forests to global warming is one of the largest uncertainties in predicting the future carbon balance of Earth. To determine the likely effects of elevated temperatures on tropical forest understory plants and soils, as well as other ecosystems, an infrared (IR) heater system was developed to provide in situ warming for the Tropical Responses...

The Earth System's Missing Energy and Land Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, S.; Wang, H.; Duan, W.

2013-05-01

The energy content of the Earth system is determined by the balance or imbalance between the incoming energy from solar radiation and the outgoing energy of terrestrial long wavelength radiation. Change in the Earth system energy budget is the ultimate cause of global climate change. Satellite data show that there is a small yet persistent radiation imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere such that Earth has been steadily accumulating energy, consistent with the theory of greenhouse effect. It is commonly believed [IPCC, 2001; 2007] that up to 94% of the energy trapped by anthropogenic greenhouse gases is absorbed by the upper several hundred meter thick layer of global oceans, with the remaining to accomplish ice melting, atmosphere heating, and land warming, etc. However, the recent measurements from ocean monitoring system indicated that the rate of oceanic heat uptake has not kept pace with the greenhouse heat trapping rate over the past years [Trenberth and Fasullo, Science, 328: 316-317, 2010]. An increasing amount of energy added to the earth system has become unaccounted for, or is missing. A recent study [Loeb et al., Nature Geoscience, 5:110-113, 2012] suggests that the missing energy may be located in the deep ocean down to 1,800 m. Here we show that at least part of the missing energy can be alternatively explained by the land mass warming. We argue that the global continents alone should have a share greater than 10% of the global warming energy. Although the global lands reflect solar energy at a higher rate, they use less energy for evaporation than do the oceans. Taken into accounts the terrestrial/oceanic differences in albedo (34% vs. 28%) and latent heat (27% vs. 58% of net solar radiation at the surface), the radiative energy available per unit surface area for storage or other internal processes is more abundant on land than on ocean. Despite that the lands cover only about 29% of the globe, the portion of global warming energy stored in the lands

Modeling Multi-Reservoir Hydropower Systems in the Sierra Nevada with Environmental Requirements and Climate Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rheinheimer, David Emmanuel

generally well simulated, mostly limited by the accuracy of inflow hydrology. System-wide hydropower generation is reduced by 9% with 6 °C warming. Most reductions in hydropower generation occur in the highly productive watersheds in the northern Sierra Nevada. The central Sierra Nevada sees less reduction in annual runoff and can adapt better to changes in runoff timing. Generation in southern watersheds is expected to decrease. System-wide, reservoirs adapt to capture earlier runoff, but mostly decrease in mean reservoir storage with warming due to decreasing annual runoff. Second, a multi-reservoir optimization model is developed using linear programming that considers the minimum instream flows (MIFs) and weekly down ramp rates (DRRs) in the Upper Yuba River in the northern Sierra Nevada. Weekly DRR constraints are used to mimic spring snowmelt flows, which are particularly important for downstream ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada but are currently missing due to the influence of dams. Trade-offs between MIFs, DRRs and hydropower are explored with air temperature warming (+0, 2, 4 and 6 °C). Under base case operations, mean annual hydropower generation increases slightly with 2 °C warming and decreases slightly with 6 °C warming. With 6 °C warming, the most ecologically beneficial MIF and DRR reduce hydropower generation 5.5% compared to base case operations and a historical climate, which has important implications for re-licensing the hydropower project. Finally, reservoir management for downstream temperatures is explored using a linear programming model to optimally release water from a reservoir using selective withdrawal. The objective function is to minimize deviations from desired downstream temperatures, which are specified to mimic the natural temperature regime in the river. One objective of this study was to develop a method that can be readily integrated into a basin-scale multi-reservoir optimization model using a network representation of system

The California Current System

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

This February 8, 2016 composite image reveals the complex distribution of phytoplankton in one of Earth's eastern boundary upwelling systems — the California Current. Recent work suggests that our warming climate my be increasing the intensity of upwelling in such regions with possible repercussions for the species that comprise those ecosystems. NASA's OceanColor Web is supported by the Ocean Biology Processing Group (OBPG) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. Our responsibilities include the collection, processing, calibration, validation, archive and distribution of ocean-related products from a large number of operational, satellite-based remote-sensing missions providing ocean color, sea surface temperature and sea surface salinity data to the international research community since 1996. Credit: NASA/Goddard/Suomin-NPP/VIIRS NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

PubMed

Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

2011-04-01

Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewin, Keith F.; McMahon, Andrew M.; Ely, Kim S.

Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. But, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by ~1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be ~2–3more » °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW) chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. Our approach is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming approaches is desired.« less

A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewin, Keith F.; McMahon, Andrew M.; Ely, Kim S.; Serbin, Shawn P.; Rogers, Alistair

2017-09-01

Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. However, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by ˜ 1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be ˜ 2-3 °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW) chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. The approach we describe is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming approaches is desired.

A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature

DOE PAGES

Lewin, Keith F.; McMahon, Andrew M.; Ely, Kim S.; ...

2017-09-19

Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. But, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by ~1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be ~2–3more » °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW) chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. Our approach is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming approaches is desired.« less

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-05-12

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-01-01

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical–ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean−atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes. PMID:25902494

Nonlinear Gulf Stream Interaction with the Deep Western Boundary Current System: Observations and a Numerical Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dietrich, David E.; Mehra, Avichal; Haney, Robert L.; Bowman, Malcolm J.; Tseng, Yu-Heng

2003-01-01

Gulf Stream (GS) separation near its observed Cape Hatteras (CH) separation location, and its ensuing path and dynamics, is a challenging ocean modeling problem. If a model GS separates much farther north than CH, then northward GS meanders, which pinch off warm core eddies (rings), are not possible or are strongly constrained by the Grand Banks shelfbreak. Cold core rings pinch off the southward GS meanders. The rings are often re-absorbed by the GS. The important warm core rings enhance heat exchange and, especially, affect the northern GS branch after GS bifurcation near the New England Seamount Chain. This northern branch gains heat by contact with the southern branch water upstream of bifurcation, and warms the Arctic Ocean and northern seas, thus playing a major role in ice dynamics, thermohaline circulation and possible global climate warming. These rings transport heat northward between the separated GS and shelf slope/Deep Western Boundary Current system (DWBC). This region has nearly level time mean isopycnals. The eddy heat transport convergence/divergence enhances the shelfbreak and GS front intensities and thus also increases watermass transformation. The fronts are maintained by warm advection by the Florida Current and cool advection by the DWBC. Thus, the GS interaction with the DWBC through the intermediate eddy field is climatologically important.

Mobile refrigeration system for precool and warm up of superconducting magnets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gandla, S. K.; Longsworth, R. C.

2017-12-01

Conservation of helium has become more important in recent years due to global shortages in supply. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) superconducting magnets use approximately 20% of the world’s helium reserves in liquid form to cool down and maintain operating temperatures at 4 K. This paper describes a mobile cryogenic refrigeration system, which has been developed by Sumitomo (SHI) Cryogenics of America, Inc. to conserve helium by shipping MRI magnets warm and cooling them down or servicing them on site at a medical facility. The system can cool a typical magnet from room temperature to below 40K in less than a week. The system consists of four single stage Displex®-type Gifford-McMahon (GM) expanders in a cryostat with heat exchangers integrated on the cold ends that cool the helium gas, which is circulated in a closed-loop system through the magnet by a cryogenic fan. The system is configured with heaters on the heat exchangers to effectively warm up a magnet. The system includes a scroll vacuum pump, which is used to evacuate the helium circuit with or without the magnet and turbo pump to evacuate the cryostat. Vacuum-jacketed transfer lines connect the cryostat to the magnet. The system is designed with its own controller for continuous operation of precool, warm up and evacuation processes with automatic and manual controls. The cryostat, pumps and gas controls are mounted on a dewar cart. One compressor and the system controller are mounted on a compressor and control cart, and the other three compressors are mounted on separate carts.

Asetek's Warm-Water Liquid Cooling System Yields Energy Cost Savings at

Science.gov Websites

NREL | Energy Systems Integration Facility | NREL Asetek Asetek's Warm-Water Liquid Cooling System Yields Energy Cost Savings at NREL Asetek's RackCDU liquid cooling system was installed and tested at the Energy Systems Integration Facility's (ESIF's) ultra-energy-efficient high-performance

Forced-air warming and ultra-clean ventilation do not mix: an investigation of theatre ventilation, patient warming and joint replacement infection in orthopaedics.

PubMed

McGovern, P D; Albrecht, M; Belani, K G; Nachtsheim, C; Partington, P F; Carluke, I; Reed, M R

2011-11-01

We investigated the capacity of patient warming devices to disrupt the ultra-clean airflow system. We compared the effects of two patient warming technologies, forced-air and conductive fabric, on operating theatre ventilation during simulated hip replacement and lumbar spinal procedures using a mannequin as a patient. Infection data were reviewed to determine whether joint infection rates were associated with the type of patient warming device that was used. Neutral-buoyancy detergent bubbles were released adjacent to the mannequin's head and at floor level to assess the movement of non-sterile air into the clean airflow over the surgical site. During simulated hip replacement, bubble counts over the surgical site were greater for forced-air than for conductive fabric warming when the anaesthesia/surgery drape was laid down (p = 0.010) and at half-height (p < 0.001). For lumbar surgery, forced-air warming generated convection currents that mobilised floor air into the surgical site area. Conductive fabric warming had no such effect. A significant increase in deep joint infection, as demonstrated by an elevated infection odds ratio (3.8, p = 0.024), was identified during a period when forced-air warming was used compared to a period when conductive fabric warming was used. Air-free warming is, therefore, recommended over forced-air warming for orthopaedic procedures.

Warming shifts 'worming': effects of experimental warming on invasive earthworms in northern North America.

PubMed

Eisenhauer, Nico; Stefanski, Artur; Fisichelli, Nicholas A; Rice, Karen; Rich, Roy; Reich, Peter B

2014-11-03

Climate change causes species range shifts and potentially alters biological invasions. The invasion of European earthworm species across northern North America has severe impacts on native ecosystems. Given the long and cold winters in that region that to date supposedly have slowed earthworm invasion, future warming is hypothesized to accelerate earthworm invasions into yet non-invaded regions. Alternatively, warming-induced reductions in soil water content (SWC) can also decrease earthworm performance. We tested these hypotheses in a field warming experiment at two sites in Minnesota, USA by sampling earthworms in closed and open canopy in three temperature treatments in 2010 and 2012. Structural equation modeling revealed that detrimental warming effects on earthworm densities and biomass could indeed be partly explained by warming-induced reductions in SWC. The direction of warming effects depended on the current average SWC: warming had neutral to positive effects at high SWC, whereas the opposite was true at low SWC. Our results suggest that warming limits the invasion of earthworms in northern North America by causing less favorable soil abiotic conditions, unless warming is accompanied by increased and temporally even distributions of rainfall sufficient to offset greater water losses from higher evapotranspiration.

Progress report for project modeling Arctic barrier island-lagoon system response to projected Arctic warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li H.; Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Storlazzi, Curt; B.M. Jones,

2012-01-01

Changes in Arctic coastal ecosystems in response to global warming may be some of the most severe on the planet. A better understanding and analysis of the rates at which these changes are expected to occur over the coming decades is crucial in order to delineate high-priority areas that are likely to be affected by climate changes. In this study we investigate the likelihood of changes to habitat-supporting barrier island – lagoon systems in response to projected changes in atmospheric and oceanographic forcing associated with Arctic warming. To better understand the relative importance of processes responsible for the current and future coastal landscape, key parameters related to increasing arctic temperatures are investigated and used to establish boundary conditions for models that simulate barrier island migration and inundation of deltaic deposits and low-lying tundra. The modeling effort investigates the dominance and relative importance of physical processes shaping the modern Arctic coastline as well as decadal responses due to projected conditions out to the year 2100.

Preventing hypothermia: comparison of current devices used by the US Army in an in vitro warmed fluid model.

PubMed

Allen, Paul B; Salyer, Steven W; Dubick, Michael A; Holcomb, John B; Blackbourne, Lorne H

2010-07-01

The purpose of this study was to develop an in vitro torso model constructed with fluid bags and to determine whether this model could be used to differentiate between the heat prevention performance of devices with active chemical or radiant forced-air heating systems compared with passive heat loss prevention devices. We tested three active (Hypothermia Prevention Management Kit [HPMK], Ready-Heat, and Bair Hugger) and five passive (wool, space blankets, Blizzard blankets, human remains pouch, and Hot Pocket) hypothermia prevention products. Active warming devices included products with chemically or electrically heated systems. Both groups were tested on a fluid model warmed to 37 degrees C versus a control with no warming device. Core temperatures were recorded every 5 minutes for 120 minutes in total. Products that prevent heat loss with an actively heated element performed better than most passive prevention methods. The original HPMK achieved and maintained significantly higher temperatures than all other methods and the controls at 120 minutes (p < 0.05). None of the devices with an actively heated element achieved the sustained 44 degrees C that could damage human tissue if left in place for 6 hours. The best passive methods of heat loss prevention were the Hot Pocket and Blizzard blanket, which performed the same as two of the three active heating methods tested at 120 minutes. Our in vitro fluid bag "torso" model seemed sensitive to detect heat loss in the evaluation of several active or passive warming devices. All active and most passive devices were better than wool blankets. Under conditions near room temperature, passive warming methods (Blizzard blanket or the Hot Pocket) were as effective as active warming devices other than the original HPMK. Further studies are necessary to determine how these data can translate to field conditions in preventing heat loss in combat casualties.

A numerical modeling study of the East Australian Current encircling and overwashing a warm-core eddy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, H. S.; Roughan, M.; Baird, M. E.; Wilkin, J.

2013-01-01