On the shortening of Indian summer monsoon season in a warming scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabeerali, C. T.; Ajayamohan, R. S.

2018-03-01

Assessing the future projections of the length of rainy season (LRS) has paramount societal impact considering its potential to alter the seasonal mean rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Here, we explored the projections of LRS using both historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5). RCP8.5 simulations project shortening of the LRS of Indian summer monsoon by altering the timing of onset and withdrawal dates. Most CMIP5 RCP8.5 model simulations indicate a faster warming rate over the western tropical Indian Ocean compared to other regions of the Indian Ocean. It is found that the pronounced western Indian Ocean warming and associated increase in convection results in warmer upper troposphere over the Indian Ocean compared to the Indian subcontinent, reducing the meridional gradient in upper tropospheric temperature (UTT) over the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) domain. The weakening of the meridional gradient in UTT induces weakening of easterly vertical wind shear over the ASM domain during first and last phase of monsoon, facilitate delayed (advanced) monsoon onset (withdrawal) dates, ensues the shortening of LRS of the Indian summer monsoon in a warming scenario.

Insects Extend the Consequences of a Warm, Dry Summer for Tree Growth in the Subsequent Summer near the Arctic Treeline in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullivan, P.; Sveinbjornsson, B.

2008-12-01

Treeline positions have important implications for surface energy budgets and carbon cycling in high latitude environments. Warming temperatures during the 20th century have been associated with both positive and negative growth trends in treeline white spruce. It has been suggested that negative growth trends may reflect the increasing importance of drought stress as a constraint on tree growth, although direct observations of water stress near the treeline are lacking. We set out to develop a more mechanistic understanding of environmental controls on gas exchange physiology and growth of white spruce near the Arctic treeline in Alaska. Our three-year study was carried out on a riverside terrace along the Agashashok River in Noatak National Preserve. The terrace is capped with a layer of sand/silt that grades from 10 cm depth at the upstream end to 45 cm depth at the downstream end. White spruce of similar size occur along the gradient at similar density, providing an opportunity to examine the role of parent material depth as a control on tree physiology and growth. Air temperatures during the 2006 growing season were near normal, there was no evidence of water stress and white spruce branch extension growth was near the long-term average. The 2007 growing season was exceptionally warm and dry. Stomatal closure was observed during mid-July throughout most of the diurnal cycle in trees growing on less than 30 cm of parent material. The warm, dry conditions and water-stress in the trees may have precipitated a major insect outbreak, which affected nearly all mature trees in the landscape. Branch extension growth in 2007 was reduced to 70 percent of that observed during the 2005 and 2006 growing seasons. Air temperatures during the 2008 growing season returned to near normal. There was no evidence of water stress, but the insect outbreak persisted and branch extension growth did not recover, remaining similar to that observed in 2007. Results of our study highlight

Seasonal variations in methane fluxes in response to summer warming and leaf litter addition in a subarctic heath ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedersen, Emily Pickering; Elberling, Bo; Michelsen, Anders

2017-08-01

Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas controlled by both biotic and abiotic processes. Few studies have investigated CH4 fluxes in subarctic heath ecosystems, and climate change-induced shifts in CH4 flux and the overall carbon budget are therefore largely unknown. Hence, there is an urgent need for long-term in situ experiments allowing for the study of ecosystem processes over time scales relevant to environmental change. Here we present in situ CH4 and CO2 flux measurements from a wet heath ecosystem in northern Sweden subjected to 16 years of manipulations, including summer warming with open-top chambers, birch leaf litter addition, and the combination thereof. Throughout the snow-free season, the ecosystem was a net sink of CH4 and CO2 (CH4 -0.27 mg C m-2 d-1; net ecosystem exchange -1827 mg C m-2 d-1), with highest CH4 uptake rates (-0.70 mg C m-2 d-1) during fall. Warming enhanced net CO2 flux, while net CH4 flux was governed by soil moisture. Litter addition and the combination with warming significantly increased CH4 uptake rates, explained by a pronounced soil drying effect of up to 32% relative to ambient conditions. Both warming and litter addition also increased the seasonal average concentration of dissolved organic carbon in the soil. The site was a carbon sink with a net uptake of 60 g C m-2 over the snow-free season. However, warming reduced net carbon uptake by 77%, suggesting that this ecosystem type might shift from snow-free season sink to source with increasing summer temperatures.

Amplified summer warming in Europe-West Asia and Northeast Asia after the mid-1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Xiaowei; Lu, Riyu; Li, Shuanglin

2017-09-01

Regional temperature changes are a crucial factor in affecting agriculture, ecosystems and societies, which depend greatly on local temperatures. We identify a nonuniform warming pattern in summer around the mid-1990s over the Eurasian continent, with a predominant amplified warming over Europe-West Asia and Northeast Asia but much weaker warming over Central Asia. It is found that the nonuniform warming concurs with both the phase shift of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the decadal change in the Silk Road Pattern (SRP), which is an upper-tropospheric teleconnection pattern over the Eurasian continent during summer. We suggest that the AMO may modulate the decadal change in SRP and then induce the zonal asymmetry in temperature changes. Our results have important implications for decadal prediction of regional warming pattern in Eurasia based on the predictable AMO.

[CO2-exchange in tundra ecosystems of Vaygach Island during the unusually warm and dry vegetation season].

PubMed

Zamolodchikov, D G

2015-01-01

In summer of 2013, field studies of CO2-exchange in tundra ecosystems of Vaygach Island have been conducted using the chamber method. The models are developed that establish relationships between CO2 fluxes and key ecological factors such as temperature, photosynthetic active radiation, leaf mass of vascular plants, and depth of thawing. According to the model estimates, in 2013 vegetation season tundra ecosystems of Vaygach Island have been appearing to be a CO2 source to the atmosphere (31.9 ± 17.1 g C m(-2) season(-1)) with gross primary production equal to 136.6 ± 18.9 g C m(-2) season(-1) and ecosystem respiration of 168.5 ± ± 18.4 g C m(-2) season(-1). Emission of CO2 from the soil surface (soil respiration) has been equal, on the average, to 67.3% of the ecosystem respiration. The reason behind carbon losses by tundra ecosystems seems to be unusually warm and dry weather conditions in 2013 summer. The air temperature during summer months has been twice as high as the climatic norm for 1961-1990. Last decades, researches in the circumpolar Arctic revealed a growing trend to the carbon sink from the atmosphere to tundra ecosystems. This trend can be interrupted by unusually warm weather situations becoming more frequent and of larger scale.

Coastal Permafrost Bluff Response to Summer Warming, Barter Island, NE Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richmond, B. M.; Gibbs, A.; Johnson, C. D.; Swarzenski, P. W.; Oberle, F. J.; Tulaczyk, S. M.; Lorenson, T. D.

2016-12-01

Observations of warming air and sea temperatures in the Arctic are leading to longer periods of permafrost thaw and ice-free conditions during summer, which lead to increased exposure to coastal storm surge, wave impacts, and heightened erosion. Recently collected air and soil (bluff) temperatures, atmospheric pressure, water levels, time-lapse photography, aerial photography and satellite imagery, and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys were used to document coastal bluff morphological response to seasonal warming. Data collection instruments and time-lapse cameras installed overlooking a bluff face on the exposed open ocean coast and within an erosional gully were used to create an archive of hourly air temperature, pressure, bluff morphology, and sea-state conditions allowing for documentation of individual bluff failure events and coincident meteorology. Permafrost boreholes as deep as 6 m from the upper bluff tundra surface were fitted with thermistor arrays to record a high resolution temperature record that spanned an initial frozen state, a summer thaw cycle, and subsequent re-freezing. Late summer ERT surveys were used to link temperature observations to subsurface electrical resistivities and active-layer dynamics. Preliminary observations suggest surface warming and active layer growth are responsible for a significant amount of bluff face failures that are exacerbated in the shore perpendicular gullies and along the exposed ocean coast. Electrical resistivity surveys and geochemical data reveal concentrated brines at depth, which likely contribute to enhanced, localized erosion in weakened strata.

Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.

Differential impacts of ocean acidification and warming on winter and summer progeny of a coastal squid (Loligo vulgaris).

PubMed

Rosa, Rui; Trübenbach, Katja; Pimentel, Marta S; Boavida-Portugal, Joana; Faleiro, Filipa; Baptista, Miguel; Dionísio, Gisela; Calado, Ricardo; Pörtner, Hans O; Repolho, Tiago

2014-02-15

Little is known about the capacity of early life stages to undergo hypercapnic and thermal acclimation under the future scenarios of ocean acidification and warming. Here, we investigated a comprehensive set of biological responses to these climate change-related variables (2°C above winter and summer average spawning temperatures and ΔpH=0.5 units) during the early ontogeny of the squid Loligo vulgaris. Embryo survival rates ranged from 92% to 96% under present-day temperature (13-17°C) and pH (8.0) scenarios. Yet, ocean acidification (pH 7.5) and summer warming (19°C) led to a significant drop in the survival rates of summer embryos (47%, P<0.05). The embryonic period was shortened by increasing temperature in both pH treatments (P<0.05). Embryo growth rates increased significantly with temperature under present-day scenarios, but there was a significant trend reversal under future summer warming conditions (P<0.05). Besides pronounced premature hatching, a higher percentage of abnormalities was found in summer embryos exposed to future warming and lower pH (P<0.05). Under the hypercapnic scenario, oxygen consumption rates decreased significantly in late embryos and newly hatched paralarvae, especially in the summer period (P<0.05). Concomitantly, there was a significant enhancement of the heat shock response (HSP70/HSC70) with warming in both pH treatments and developmental stages. Upper thermal tolerance limits were positively influenced by acclimation temperature, and such thresholds were significantly higher in late embryos than in hatchlings under present-day conditions (P<0.05). In contrast, the upper thermal tolerance limits under hypercapnia were higher in hatchlings than in embryos. Thus, we show that the stressful abiotic conditions inside the embryo's capsules will be exacerbated under near-future ocean acidification and summer warming scenarios. The occurrence of prolonged embryogenesis along with lowered thermal tolerance limits under such

Increased risk of a shutdown of ocean convection posed by warm North Atlantic summers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oltmanns, Marilena; Karstensen, Johannes; Fischer, Jürgen

2018-04-01

A shutdown of ocean convection in the subpolar North Atlantic, triggered by enhanced melting over Greenland, is regarded as a potential transition point into a fundamentally different climate regime1-3. Noting that a key uncertainty for future convection resides in the relative importance of melting in summer and atmospheric forcing in winter, we investigate the extent to which summer conditions constrain convection with a comprehensive dataset, including hydrographic records that are over a decade in length from the convection regions. We find that warm and fresh summers, characterized by increased sea surface temperatures, freshwater concentrations and melting, are accompanied by reduced heat and buoyancy losses in winter, which entail a longer persistence of the freshwater near the surface and contribute to delaying convection. By shortening the time span for the convective freshwater export, the identified seasonal dynamics introduce a potentially critical threshold that is crossed when substantial amounts of freshwater from one summer are carried over into the next and accumulate. Warm and fresh summers in the Irminger Sea are followed by particularly short convection periods. We estimate that in the winter 2010-2011, after the warmest and freshest Irminger Sea summer on our record, 40% of the surface freshwater was retained.

Global Warming and 21st Century Drying

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdun, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Coats, Sloan

2014-01-01

Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twentyfirst century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman- Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both

Delayed responses of an Arctic ecosystem to an extremely dry summer: impacts on net ecosystem exchange and vegetation functioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zona, D.; Lipson, D. A.; Richards, J. H.; Phoenix, G. K.; Liljedahl, A. K.; Ueyama, M.; Sturtevant, C. S.; Oechel, W. C.

2013-12-01

The importance and mode of action of extreme events on the global carbon budget are inadequately understood. This includes the differential impact of extreme events on various ecosystem components, lag effects, recovery times, and compensatory processes. Summer 2007 in Barrow, Arctic Alaska, experienced unusually high air temperatures (fifth warmest over a 65 yr period) and record low precipitation (lowest over a 65 yr period). These abnormal conditions resulted in strongly reduced net Sphagnum CO2 uptake, but no effect neither on vascular plant development nor on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) from this arctic tundra ecosystem. Gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) were both generally greater during most of this extreme summer. Cumulative ecosystem C uptake in 2007 was similar to the previous summers, showing the capacity of the ecosystem to compensate in its net ecosystem exchange (NEE) despite the impact on other functions and structure such as substantial necrosis of the Sphagnum layer. Surprisingly, the lowest ecosystem C uptake (2005-2009) was observed during the 2008 summer, i.e the year directly following the extremely summer. In 2008, cumulative C uptake was ∼70% lower than prior years. This reduction cannot solely be attributed to mosses, which typically contribute with ∼40% - of the entire ecosystem C uptake. The minimum summer cumulative C uptake in 2008 suggests that the entire ecosystem experienced difficulty readjusting to more typical weather after experiencing exceptionally warm and dry conditions. Importantly, the return to a substantial cumulative C uptake occurred two summers after the extreme event, which suggest a high resilience of this tundra ecosystem. Overall, these results show a highly complex response of the C uptake and its sub-components to atypically dry conditions. The impact of multiple extreme events still awaits further investigation.

Warm Mediterranean mid-Holocene summers inferred from fossil midge assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samartin, Stéphanie; Heiri, Oliver; Joos, Fortunat; Renssen, Hans; Franke, Jörg; Brönnimann, Stefan; Tinner, Willy

2017-02-01

Understanding past climate trends is key for reliable projections of global warming and associated risks and hazards. Uncomfortably large discrepancies between vegetation-based summer temperature reconstructions (mainly based on pollen) and climate model results have been reported for the current interglacial, the Holocene. For the Mediterranean region these reconstructions indicate cooler-than-present mid-Holocene summers, in contrast with expectations based on climate models and long-term changes in summer insolation. We present new quantitative and replicated Holocene summer temperature reconstructions based on fossil chironomid midges from the northern central Mediterranean region. The Holocene thermal maximum is reconstructed 9,000-5,000 years ago and estimated to have been 1-2 °C warmer in mean July temperature than the recent pre-industrial period, consistent with glacier and marine records, and with transient climate model runs. This combined evidence implies that widely used pollen-based summer temperature reconstructions in the Mediterranean area are significantly biased by precipitation or other forcings such as early land use. Our interpretation can resolve the previous discrepancy between climate models and quantitative palaeotemperature records for millennial-scale Holocene summer temperature trends in the Mediterranean region. It also suggests that pollen-based evidence for cool mid-Holocene summers in other semi-arid to arid regions of the Northern Hemisphere may have to be reconsidered, with potential implications for global-scale reconstructions.

Reduced probability of ice-free summers for 1.5 °C compared to 2 °C warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahn, Alexandra

2018-05-01

Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly with increasing global temperatures. However, it is largely unknown how Arctic summer sea-ice impacts would vary under the 1.5 °C Paris target compared to scenarios with greater warming. Using the Community Earth System Model, I show that constraining warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2.0 °C reduces the probability of any summer ice-free conditions by 2100 from 100% to 30%. It also reduces the late-century probability of an ice cover below the 2012 record minimum from 98% to 55%. For warming above 2 °C, frequent ice-free conditions can be expected, potentially for several months per year. Although sea-ice loss is generally reversible for decreasing temperatures, sea ice will only recover to current conditions if atmospheric CO2 is reduced below present-day concentrations. Due to model biases, these results provide a lower bound on summer sea-ice impacts, but clearly demonstrate the benefits of constraining warming to 1.5 °C.

Microbial community dynamics induced by rewetting dry soil: summer precipitation matters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnard, Romain; Osborne, Catherine; Firestone, Mary

2015-04-01

The massive soil CO2 efflux associated with rewetting dry soils after the dry summer period significantly contributes to the annual carbon budget of Mediterranean grasslands. Rapid reactivation of soil heterotrophic activity and available carbon are both required to fuel the CO2 pulse. Better understanding of the effects of altered summer precipitation on the metabolic state of indigenous microorganisms may be important in predicting future changes in carbon cycling. We investigated the effects of a controlled rewetting event on the soil CO2 efflux pulse and on the present (DNA-based) and potentially active (rRNA-based) soil bacterial and fungal communities in intact soil cores previously subjected to three different precipitation patterns over four months (full summer dry season, extended wet season, and absent dry season). Phylogenetic marker genes for bacteria (16S) and fungi (28S) were sequenced before and after rewetting, and the abundance of these genes and transcripts was measured. Even after having experienced markedly different antecedent water conditions, the potentially active bacterial communities showed a consistent wet-up response, reflecting contrasting life-strategies for different groups. Moreover, we found a significant positive relation between the extent of change in the structure of the potentially active bacterial community and the magnitude of the CO2 pulse upon rewetting dry soils. We suggest that the duration of severe dry conditions (predicted to change under future climate) is important in conditioning the response potential of the soil bacterial community to wet-up as well as in framing the magnitude of the associated CO2 pulse.

Warm & wet or warm & dry? - A tree-ring based drought reconstruction from the European lowlands with emphasis on the medieval climate anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharnweber, Tobias; Heinrich, Ingo; van der Maaten, Ernst; Heußner, Karl-Uwe; Wilmking, Martin

2016-04-01

Recent advances in reconstructing natural drought variability in Europe, such as the 'Old world drought atlas' (Cook et al., 2015), have sharpened our picture of historical hydroclimatic variability. However, our knowledge lacks high spatial resolution, especially for the northern non-arid regions. For example, it is still under debate if the so called medieval climate anomaly (MCA; ~950-1300 AD), a period of warm temperatures comparable to the contemporary warm phase, was likewise accompanied by increased drought occurrence, or, on the contrary, was rather wet (e.g. Kress et al., 2014). Here, we present a new millennial long drought reconstruction based on a unique dataset of tree rings from historical and modern beech wood from the northeastern European lowlands. Beech has a stable and strong regional summer drought signal over the calibration period of instrumental data (r>0.7 with drought index PDSI over 1900-2010) which, in contrast to other species such as oak, is consistent irrespective of the site/soil conditions the trees grew in. It can be assumed that during medieval times beech wood was available locally and not traded long distances. This strongly reduces the possibility that the new reconstruction mixes different signals of the possibly high spatial variability of precipitation. The extremely high replication of our chronology for the period 1000-1300 AD (peak in town foundations in NE-Germany) with more than 600 series enables a direct comparison with the well replicated recent period 1800-2010. In contrast to the results of Kress et al. (2014) for the Swiss Alps, but in accordance with the 'Old world drought atlas', our first results point at a rather dry and warm MCA in NE-Germany. In addition they support the observation that the hydroclimate of the twentieth century was highly variable compared with the last millennium. References Cook ER, Seager R, Kushnir Y, et al. (2015) Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era. Science

Water Quality Outlet Works Prototype Tests, Warm Springs Dam Dry Creek, Russian River Basin Sonoma County, California

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-03-01

34.4* TECHNICAL REPORT HL-89-4 WATER QUALITY OUTLET WORKS PROTOTYPE TESTS, WARM SPRINGS DAM DRY CREEK, RUSSIAN RIVER BASIN AD-A207 058 SONOMA COUNTY , CALIFORNIA...Clawflcation) [7 Water Quality Outlet Works Prototype Tests, Warm Springs Dam, Dry Creek, Russian River Basin, Sonoma County , California 12. PERSONAL...Cointogobvil Be,,pesso Figur 1. iciniyama Pealm WATER QUALITY OUTLET WORKS PROTOTYPE TESTS WARM SPRINGS DAM, DRY CREEK, RUSSIAN RIVER BASIN SONOMA COUNTY , CALIFORNIA

A hydrogeologic framework for characterizing summer streamflow sensitivity to climate warming in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Treesearch

M. Safeeq; G.E. Grant; S.L. Lewis; M.G. Kramer; B. Staab

2014-01-01

Summer streamflows in the Pacific Northwest are largely derived from melting snow and groundwater discharge. As the climate warms, diminishing snowpack and earlier snowmelt will cause reductions in summer streamflow. Most regional-scale assessments of climate change impacts on streamflow use downscaled temperature and precipitation projections from general circulation...

The response of aboveground plant productivity to earlier snowmelt and summer warming in an Arctic ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livensperger, C.; Steltzer, H.; Darrouzet-Nardi, A.; Sullivan, P.; Wallenstein, M. D.; Weintraub, M. N.

2012-12-01

Plant communities in the Arctic are undergoing changes in structure and function due to shifts in seasonality from changing winters and summer warming. These changes will impact biogeochemical cycling, surface energy balance, and functioning of vertebrate and invertebrate communities. To examine seasonal controls on aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in a moist acidic tundra ecosystem in northern Alaska, we shifted the growing season by accelerating snowmelt (using radiation absorbing shadecloth) and warming air and soil temperature (using 1 m2 open-top chambers), individually and in combination. After three years, we measured ANPP by harvesting up to 16 individual ramets, tillers and rhizomes for each of 7 plant species, including two deciduous shrubs, two graminoids, two evergreen shrubs and one forb during peak season. Our results show that ANPP per stem summed across the 7 species increased when snow melt occurred earlier. However, standing biomass, excluding current year growth, was also greater. The ratio of ANPP/standing biomass decreased in all treatments compared to the control. ANPP per unit standing biomass summed for the four shrub species decreases due to summer warming alone or in combination with early snowmelt; however early snowmelt alone did not lead to lower ANPP for the shrubs. ANPP per tiller or rhizome summed for the three herbaceous species increased in response to summer warming. Understanding the differential response of plants to changing seasonality will inform predictions of future Arctic plant community structure and function.

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Park, Hoonyoung; Piao, Shilong; Kim, Jinwon; Feng, Song

2017-09-01

Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961-2010. Before the early 1980s (1961-1983), change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984-2010), the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

Complex carbon cycle responses to multi-level warming and supplemental summer rain in the high Arctic.

PubMed

Sharp, Elizabeth D; Sullivan, Patrick F; Steltzer, Heidi; Csank, Adam Z; Welker, Jeffrey M

2013-06-01

The Arctic has experienced rapid warming and, although there are uncertainties, increases in precipitation are projected to accompany future warming. Climate changes are expected to affect magnitudes of gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP), ecosystem respiration (ER) and the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE). Furthermore, ecosystem responses to climate change are likely to be characterized by nonlinearities, thresholds and interactions among system components and the driving variables. These complex interactions increase the difficulty of predicting responses to climate change and necessitate the use of manipulative experiments. In 2003, we established a long-term, multi-level and multi-factor climate change experiment in a polar semidesert in northwest Greenland. Two levels of heating (30 and 60 W m(-2) ) were applied and the higher level was combined with supplemental summer rain. We made plot-level measurements of CO2 exchange, plant community composition, foliar nitrogen concentrations, leaf δ(13) C and NDVI to examine responses to our treatments at ecosystem- and leaf-levels. We confronted simple models of GEP and ER with our data to test hypotheses regarding key drivers of CO2 exchange and to estimate growing season CO2 -C budgets. Low-level warming increased the magnitude of the ecosystem C sink. Meanwhile, high-level warming made the ecosystem a source of C to the atmosphere. When high-level warming was combined with increased summer rain, the ecosystem became a C sink of magnitude similar to that observed under low-level warming. Competition among our ER models revealed the importance of soil moisture as a driving variable, likely through its effects on microbial activity and nutrient cycling. Measurements of community composition and proxies for leaf-level physiology suggest GEP responses largely reflect changes in leaf area of Salix arctica, rather than changes in leaf-level physiology. Our findings indicate that the sign and magnitude of the future

Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura; Li, Chao; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Marotzke, Jochem

2018-06-01

We use the 100-member Grand Ensemble with the climate model MPI-ESM to evaluate the controllability of mean and extreme European summer temperatures with the global mean temperature targets in the Paris Agreement. We find that European summer temperatures at 2 °C of global warming are on average 1 °C higher than at 1.5 °C of global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels. In a 2 °C warmer world, one out of every two European summer months would be warmer than ever observed in our current climate. Daily maximum temperature anomalies for extreme events with return periods of up to 500 years reach return levels of 7 °C at 2 °C of global warming and 5.5 °C at 1.5 °C of global warming. The largest differences in return levels for shorter return periods of 20 years are over southern Europe, where we find the highest mean temperature increase. In contrast, for events with return periods of over 100 years these differences are largest over central Europe, where we find the largest changes in temperature variability. However, due to the large effect of internal variability, only four out of every ten summer months in a 2 °C warmer world present mean temperatures that could be distinguishable from those in a 1.5 °C world. The distinguishability between the two climates is largest over southern Europe, while decreasing to around 10% distinguishable months over eastern Europe. Furthermore, we find that 10% of the most extreme and severe summer maximum temperatures in a 2 °C world could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.

[Effects of climate warming and drying on millet yield in Gansu Province and related countermeasures].

PubMed

Cao, Ling; Wang, Qiang; Deng, Zhen-yong; Guo, Xiao-qin; Ma, Xing-xiang; Ning, Hui-fang

2010-11-01

Based on the data of air temperature, precipitation, and millet yield from Ganzhou, Anding, and Xifeng, the representative stations in Hexi moderate arid oasis irrigation area, moderate sub-arid dry area in middle Gansu, and moderate sub-humid dry area in eastern Gansu, respectively, this paper calculated the regional active accumulated temperature of > or = 0 degrees C, > or =5 degrees C, > or =10 degrees C, > or =15 degrees C, and > or =20 degrees C in millet growth period, and the average temperature and precipitation in millet key growth stages. The millet climatic yield was isolated by orthogonal polynomial, and the change characteristics of climate and millet climatic yield as well as the effects of climate change on millet yield were analyzed by statistical methods of linear tendency, cumulative anomaly, and Mann-Kendall. The results showed that warming and drying were the main regional features in the modern climatic change of Gansu. The regional temperature had a significant upward trend since the early 1990s, while the precipitation was significantly reduced from the late 1980s. There were significant correlations between millet yield and climatic factors. The millet yield in dry areas increased with the increasing temperature and precipitation in millet key growth stages, and that in Hexi Corridor area increased with increasing temperature. Warming and drying affected millet yield prominently. The weather fluctuation index of regional millet yield in Xifeng, Anding, and Ganzhou accounted for 73%, 72%, and 54% of real output coefficient variation, respectively, and the percentages increased significantly after warming. Warming was conducive to the increase of millet production, and the annual increment of millet climatic yield in Xifeng, Anding, and Ganzhou after warming was 30.6, 43.1, and 121.1 kg x hm(-2), respectively. Aiming at the warming and drying trend in Gansu Province in the future, the millet planting area in the Province should be further

How Dry is the Tropical Free Troposphere? Implications for Global Warming Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spencer, Roy W.; Braswell, William D.

1997-01-01

The humidity of the free troposphere is being increasingly scrutinized in climate research due to its central role in global warming theory through positive water vapor feedback. This feedback is the primary source of global warming in general circulation models (GCMs). Because the loss of infrared energy to space increases nonlinearly with decreases in relative humidity, the vast dry zones in the Tropics are of particular interest. These dry zones are nearly devoid of radiosonde stations, and most of those stations have, until recently, ignored the low humidity information from the sondes. This results in substantial uncertainty in GCM tuning and validation based on sonde data. While satellite infrared radiometers are now beginning to reveal some information about the aridity of the tropical free troposphere, the authors show that the latest microwave humidity sounder data suggests even drier conditions than have been previously reported. This underscores the importance of understanding how these low humidity levels are controlled in order to tune and validate GCMs, and to predict the magnitude of water vapor feedback and thus the magnitude of global warming.

The Role of Atmospheric Heating over the South China Sea and Western Pacific Regions in Modulating Asian Summer Climate under the Global Warming Background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, B.

2015-12-01

Global warming is one of the most significant climate change signals at the earth's surface. However, the responses of monsoon precipitation to global warming show very distinct regional features, especially over the South China Sea (SCS) and surrounding regions during boreal summer. To understand the possible dynamics in these specific regions under the global warming background, the changes in atmospheric latent heating and their possible influences on global climate are investigated by both observational diagnosis and numerical sensitivity simulations. Results indicate that summertime latent heating has intensified in the SCS and western Pacific, accompanied by increased precipitation, cloud cover, lower-tropospheric convergence, and decreased sea level pressure. Sensitivity experiments show that middle and upper tropospheric heating causes an east-west feedback pattern between SCS-western Pacific and South Asia, which strengthens the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and moist convergence in the lower troposphere, consequently forcing a descending motion and adiabatic warming over continental South Asia and leading to a warm and dry climate. When air-sea interaction is considered, the simulation results are overall more similar to observations, and in particular the bias of precipitation over the Indian Ocean simulated by AGCMs has been reduced. The results highlight the important role of latent heating in adjusting the changes in sea surface temperature through atmospheric dynamics.

Tree water dynamics in a drying and warming world

DOE PAGES

Grossiord, Charlotte; Sevanto, Sanna Annika; Borrego, Isaac Anthony; ...

2017-05-26

Disentangling the relative impacts of precipitation reduction and vapour pressure deficit ( VPD) on plant water dynamics and determining whether acclimation may influence these patterns in the future is an important challenge. Here, we report sap flux density ( FD), stomatal conductance ( Gs), hydraulic conductivity ( KL) and xylem anatomy in piñon pine ( Pinus edulis) and juniper ( Juniperus monosperma) trees subjected to five years of precipitation reduction, atmospheric warming (elevated VPD) and their combined effects. No acclimation occurred under precipitation reduction: lower Gs and FD were found for both species compared to ambient conditions. Warming reduced themore » sensibility of stomata to VPD for both species but resulted in the maintenance of Gs and FD to ambient levels only for piñon. For juniper, reduced soil moisture under warming negated benefits of stomatal adjustments and resulted in reduced FD, Gs and KL. Although reduced stomatal sensitivity to VPD also occurred under combined stresses, reductions in Gs, FD and KL took place to similar levels as under single stresses for both species. Here our results show that stomatal conductance adjustments to high VPD could minimize but not entirely prevent additive effects of warming and drying on water use and carbon acquisition of trees in semi-arid regions.« less

Tree water dynamics in a drying and warming world

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grossiord, Charlotte; Sevanto, Sanna Annika; Borrego, Isaac Anthony

Disentangling the relative impacts of precipitation reduction and vapour pressure deficit ( VPD) on plant water dynamics and determining whether acclimation may influence these patterns in the future is an important challenge. Here, we report sap flux density ( FD), stomatal conductance ( Gs), hydraulic conductivity ( KL) and xylem anatomy in piñon pine ( Pinus edulis) and juniper ( Juniperus monosperma) trees subjected to five years of precipitation reduction, atmospheric warming (elevated VPD) and their combined effects. No acclimation occurred under precipitation reduction: lower Gs and FD were found for both species compared to ambient conditions. Warming reduced themore » sensibility of stomata to VPD for both species but resulted in the maintenance of Gs and FD to ambient levels only for piñon. For juniper, reduced soil moisture under warming negated benefits of stomatal adjustments and resulted in reduced FD, Gs and KL. Although reduced stomatal sensitivity to VPD also occurred under combined stresses, reductions in Gs, FD and KL took place to similar levels as under single stresses for both species. Here our results show that stomatal conductance adjustments to high VPD could minimize but not entirely prevent additive effects of warming and drying on water use and carbon acquisition of trees in semi-arid regions.« less

Record dry summer in 2015 challenges precipitation projections in Central Europe.

PubMed

Orth, René; Zscheischler, Jakob; Seneviratne, Sonia I

2016-06-21

Central Europe was characterized by a humid-temperate climate in the 20(th) century. Climate change projections suggest that climate in this area will shift towards warmer temperatures by the end of the 21(st) century, while projected precipitation changes are highly uncertain. Here we show that the 2015 summer rainfall was the lowest on record since 1901 in Central Europe, and that climate models that perform best in the three driest years of the historical time period 1901-2015 project stronger drying trends in the 21(st) century than models that perform best in the remaining years. Analyses of precipitation and derived soil moisture reveal that the 2015 event was drier than both the recent 2003 or 2010 extreme summers in Central Europe. Additionally there are large anomalies in satellite-derived vegetation greenness. In terms of precipitation and temperature anomalies, the 2015 summer in Central Europe is found to lie between historical climate in the region and that characteristic of the Mediterranean area. Even though the models best capturing past droughts are not necessarily generally more reliable in the future, the 2015 drought event illustrates that potential future drying trends have severe implications and could be stronger than commonly assumed from the entire IPCC AR5 model ensemble.

Influence of warm air-drying on enamel bond strength and surface free-energy of self-etch adhesives.

PubMed

Shiratsuchi, Koji; Tsujimoto, Akimasa; Takamizawa, Toshiki; Furuichi, Tetsuya; Tsubota, Keishi; Kurokawa, Hiroyasu; Miyazaki, Masashi

2013-08-01

We examined the effect of warm air-drying on the enamel bond strengths and the surface free-energy of three single-step self-etch adhesives. Bovine mandibular incisors were mounted in self-curing resin and then wet ground with #600 silicon carbide (SiC) paper. The adhesives were applied according to the instructions of the respective manufacturers and then dried in a stream of normal (23°C) or warm (37°C) air for 5, 10, and 20 s. After visible-light irradiation of the adhesives, resin composites were condensed into a mold and polymerized. Ten samples per test group were stored in distilled water at 37°C for 24 h and then the bond strengths were measured. The surface free-energies were determined by measuring the contact angles of three test liquids placed on the cured adhesives. The enamel bond strengths varied according to the air-drying time and ranged from 15.8 to 19.1 MPa. The trends for the bond strengths were different among the materials. The value of the γS⁺ component increased slightly when drying was performed with a stream of warm air, whereas that of the γS⁻ component decreased significantly. These data suggest that warm air-drying is essential to obtain adequate enamel bond strengths, although increasing the drying time did not significantly influence the bond strength. © 2013 Eur J Oral Sci.

Formation of well-mixed warm water column in central Bohai Sea during summer: Role of high-frequency atmospheric forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Weiwei; Wan, Xiuquan; Wang, Zhankun; Liu, Yulong; Wan, Kai

2017-12-01

The influence of high-frequency atmospheric forcing on the formation of a well-mixed summer warm water column in the central Bohai Sea is investigated comparing model simulations driven by daily surface forcing and those using monthly forcing data. In the absence of high-frequency atmospheric forcing, numerical simulations have repeatedly failed to reproduce this vertically uniform column of warm water measured over the past 35 years. However, high-frequency surface forcing is found to strongly influence the structure and distribution of the well-mixed warm water column, and simulations are in good agreement with observations. Results show that high frequency forcing enhances vertical mixing over the central bank, intensifies downward heat transport, and homogenizes the water column to form the Bohai central warm column. Evidence presented shows that high frequency forcing plays a dominant role in the formation of the well-mixed warm water column in summer, even without the effects of tidal and surface wave mixing. The present study thus provides a practical and rational way of further improving the performance of oceanic simulations in the Bohai Sea and can be used to adjust parameterization schemes of ocean models.

Deglacial Warming and Wetting of Northern Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniels, W.; Russell, J. M.; Longo, W. M.; Giblin, A. E.; Holland-Stergar, P.; Morrill, C.; Huang, Y.

2015-12-01

Aeolian sand dunes swept across northern Alaska during the last glacial maximum. Today, summer temperatures are moderate and soils can remain waterlogged all summer long. How did the transition from a cold and dry glacial to a warm and wet interglacial take place? To answer this question we reconstructed temperature and precipitation changes during the last deglaciation using biomarker hydrogen isotopes from a new 28,000 year-long sediment core from Lake E5, located in the central Brooks Range of Alaska. We use terrestrial leaf waxes (dDterr, C28-acid), informed by dD measurements of modern vegetation, to infer dD of precipitation, an indicator of relative temperature change. Biomarkers from aquatic organisms (dDaq, C18-acid) are used as a proxy for lake water isotopes. The offset between the two (eterr-aq) is used to infer relative changes in evaporative enrichment of lake water, and by extension, moisture balance. dDterr during the last glacial period was -282‰ compared to -258‰ during the Holocene, suggesting a 5.6 ± 2.7 °C increase in summer temperature using the modern local temperature-dD relationship. Gradual warming began at ~18.5 ka, and temperature increased abruptly at 11.5 ka, at the end of the Younger Dryas. Warming peaked in the early Holocene from 11.5 to 9.1 ka, indicating a Holocene thermal maximum associated with peak summer insolation. The eterr-aq supports a dry LGM and moist Holocene. Other sediment proxies (TIC, TOC, redox-sensitive elements) support the eterr-aq, and reveal a shift to more positive P-E beginning around 17 ka, suggesting rising temperature led increases in precipitation during the last deglaciation. Moreover, differing patterns of dDterr and eterr-aq during the deglaciation suggest that the relationship between temperature and precipitation changed through time. Such decoupling, likely due to regional atmospheric reorganization as the Laurentide ice sheet waned, illustrates the importance of atmospheric dynamics in

[Impacts on the life quality of the patients with allergic rhinitis treated with warming acupuncture in winter and summer].

PubMed

Xie, Yilin; Wan, Wenrong; Zhao, Yinlong; Ye, Zhiying; Chen, Huiyang; Hong, Xiuyu; Wu, Lei; Wang, Ruiwen; Yang, Jingui

2015-12-01

To explore the impacts on the life quality and the effect mechanism in the patients of allergic rhinitis (AR) treated with warm acupuncture in winter and summer. Two hundred and forty patients of AR were randomized into a summer and winter acupuncture group, a non-summer and winter acupuncture group and a western medication group, 80 cases in each one. In the two acupuncture groups, Dazhui (GV 14), Fengmen (BL 12), Feishu (BL 13), Pishu (BL 20) and Shenshu (BL 23) were selected. In the summer and winter acupuncture group, the warm acupuncture started at the first day of the three periods of hot season and the first day of the third nine-day period after the winter solstice. The treatment was given once every two days, continuously for 15 times. Totally, 30 treatments were required a year. In the non-summer and winter acupuncture group, the warm acupuncture was applied out of the three periods of the hot season and the third nine-day period after the winter solstice. The treatment was given once every two days and 30 treatments for a year. In the western medication group, cetirizine was taken orally, continuously for 30 days as one session. In the three groups, the treatment for 1 year was taken as one session. The second session started in the next year. Totally, 2 sessions were required. The score of rhinoconjunctivitis quality of life questionnaire (RQLQ) and the level of serum immunoglobulin E (IgE) were compared in the patients' of each group before treatment and in 1 and 2 sessions of treatment. After treatment, the scores of 7 domains, named activities, common complaints, practical problems, sleep, ocular symptoms, nasal symptoms and emotions were all improved as compared with those before treatment, in the patients of the three groups (all P < 0.05). After 2 sessions treatment, the results in the summer and winter acupuncture group were better than those in the other two groups (all P < 0.05), and the results in the non-summer and winter acupuncture group

Wet-to-dry shift over Southwest China in 1994 tied to the warming of tropical warm pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lin; Huang, Gang; Chen, Wen; Zhou, Wen; Wang, Weiqiang

2018-01-01

The autumn climate in Southwest China (SWC) experienced a notable wet-to-dry shift in 1994. Associated with this change in precipitation, decadal signatures of large-scale atmospheric circulation and SST identify a likely dynamical origin: the tropical warm pool (TWP) consisting of tropical northwest Pacific (TNWP, 3°S-12°N and 110°E-150°E) sector and tropical east Indian Ocean (TEI, 10°S-3°N and 80°E-110°E) sector. A cold-to-warm phase switch of TWP SST occurred in 1994, coinciding exactly with the timing of the regime transition of SWC precipitation. During post-1994 period, warm states in the TNWP and TEI sectors plays in a synergistic fashion to invoke dry decades in SWC. On the one side, warm SST over the TNWP sector excites an anomalous cyclone centered on the South China Sea directed opposite to the climatological moisture transport and strengthened zonal wind to its west accompanied by a weakening of the poleward flux; on the other side, warm SST over the TEI sector acts to intensify inflow into TEI with less concurrent transfer of moisture to SWC and to steer moisture to the northern Arabic Sea and away from the SWC-oriented track. Meanwhile, the troposphere over SWC is capped by subsidence, which is jointly contributed by TNWP and TEI. It then follows a reduced moisture supply, suppressed convective activity, and anomalous divergence in SWC, bringing a precipitation deficit there. In contrast, cold TWP SST during 1961-1994 favors wet conditions in SWC, given a perfectly symmetrical circulation pattern. Further, the dominant role of TWP is confirmed, because the modeled response to TWP SST forcing alone bears a great resemblance to the observed evidence. Finally, it is also found that the teleconnected influence induced by TWP is stronger in southern SWC than in northern SWC, which explains the south-north gradient of interdecadal signal of SWC precipitation.

Extreme Marine Warming Across Tropical Australia During Austral Summer 2015-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benthuysen, Jessica A.; Oliver, Eric C. J.; Feng, Ming; Marshall, Andrew G.

2018-02-01

During austral summer 2015-2016, prolonged extreme ocean warming events, known as marine heatwaves (MHWs), occurred in the waters around tropical Australia. MHWs arose first in the southeast tropical Indian Ocean in November 2015, emerging progressively east until March 2016, when all waters from the North West Shelf to the Coral Sea were affected. The MHW maximum intensity tended to occur in March, coinciding with the timing of the maximum sea surface temperature (SST). Large areas were in a MHW state for 3-4 months continuously with maximum intensities over 2°C. In 2016, the Indonesian-Australian Basin and areas including the Timor Sea and Kimberley shelf experienced the longest and most intense MHW from remotely sensed SST dating back to 1982. In situ temperature data from temperature loggers at coastal sites revealed a consistent picture, with MHWs appearing from west to east and peaking in March 2016. Temperature data from moorings, an Argo float, and Slocum gliders showed the extent of warming with depth. The events occurred during a strong El Niño and weakened monsoon activity, enhanced by the extended suppressed phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Reduced cloud cover in January and February 2016 led to positive air-sea heat flux anomalies into the ocean, predominantly due to the shortwave radiation contribution with a smaller additional contribution from the latent heat flux anomalies. A data-assimilating ocean model showed regional changes in the upper ocean circulation and a change in summer surface mixed layer depths and barrier layer thicknesses consistent with past El Niño events.

Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food-limited Arctic herbivore.

PubMed

Albon, Steve D; Irvine, R Justin; Halvorsen, Odd; Langvatn, Rolf; Loe, Leif E; Ropstad, Erik; Veiberg, Vebjørn; van der Wal, René; Bjørkvoll, Eirin M; Duff, Elizabeth I; Hansen, Brage B; Lee, Aline M; Tveraa, Torkild; Stien, Audun

2017-04-01

The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain-on-snow) can cause 'icing', restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a 'barometer' of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between-year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long-term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to 'rain-on-snow' events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density-dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important 'missing' mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a

Regional climate models reduce biases of global models and project smaller European summer warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soerland, S.; Schar, C.; Lüthi, D.; Kjellstrom, E.

2017-12-01

The assessment of regional climate change and the associated planning of adaptation and response strategies are often based on complex model chains. Typically, these model chains employ global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs), as well as one or several impact models. It is a common belief that the errors in such model chains behave approximately additive, thus the uncertainty should increase with each modeling step. If this hypothesis were true, the application of RCMs would not lead to any intrinsic improvement (beyond higher-resolution detail) of the GCM results. Here, we investigate the bias patterns (offset during the historical period against observations) and climate change signals of two RCMs that have downscaled a comprehensive set of GCMs following the EURO-CORDEX framework. The two RCMs reduce the biases of the driving GCMs, reduce the spread and modify the amplitude of the GCM projected climate change signal. The GCM projected summer warming at the end of the century is substantially reduced by both RCMs. These results are important, as the projected summer warming and its likely impact on the water cycle are among the most serious concerns regarding European climate change.

Sediments Exposed by Drainage of a Collapsing Glacier-Dammed Lake Show That Contemporary Summer Temperatures and Glacier Retreat Exceed the Medieval Warm Period in Southern Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loso, M. G.; Anderson, R. S.; Anderson, S. P.; Reimer, P. J.

2007-12-01

In the mountains of southcentral Alaska, recent and widespread glacier retreat is well-documented, but few instrumental or proxy records of temperature are available to place recent changes in a long-term context. The Medieval Warm Period in particular, is poorly documented because subsequent Little Ice Age glacier advances destroyed much of the existing sedimentary record. In a rare exception, sudden and unexpected catastrophic drainage of a previously stable glacier-dammed lake recently revealed lacustrine stratigraphy that spans over 1500 years. Located near the Bagley Icefield in Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve, Iceberg Lake first drained in A.D. 1999 and has not regained a stable shoreline since that time. Rapid incision of the exposed lakebed provided subaerial exposure of annual laminations (varves, confirmed by radiogenic evidence) that record continuous sediment deposition from A.D. 442 to A.D. 1998. We present a recalculated master chronology of varve thickness that combines measurements from several sites within the former lake. Varve thickness in this chronology is positively correlated with northern hemisphere temperature trends and also with a local, ~600 year long tree ring width chronology. Varve thickness increases in warm summers because of higher melt, runoff, and sediment transport, and also because shrinkage of the glacier dam allows shoreline regression that concentrates sediment in the smaller lake. Relative to the entire record, varve thicknesses and implied summer temperatures were lowest around A.D. 600, high between A.D. 1000 and A.D. 1300, low between A.D. 1500 and A.D 1850, and highest in the late 20th century. Combined with stratigraphic evidence that contemporary jokulhlaups are unprecedented since at least A.D. 442, this record suggests that late 20th century warming was more intense, and accompanied by more extensive glacier retreat, than the Medieval Warm Period or any other time in the last 1500 years. We emphasize

Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moyes, Andrew B.; Germino, Matthew J.; Kueppers, Lara M.

2015-01-01

Summer precipitation may be at least as important as temperature in constraining C gain by establishing subalpine trees at and above current alpine treelines as seasonally dry subalpine and alpine ecosystems continue to warm.

Projections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiawei; Xu, Haiming; Deng, Jiechun

2018-04-01

Much research is needed regarding the two long-term warming targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement, i.e., 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, especially from a regional perspective. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity change and associated precipitation change under both warming targets are explored in this study. The multimodel ensemble mean projections by 19 CMIP5 models show small increases in EASM intensity and general increases in summer precipitation at 1.5 and 2 °C warming, but with large multimodel standard deviations. Thus, a novel multimodel ensemble pattern regression (EPR) method is applied to give more reliable projections based on the concept of emergent constraints, which is effective at tightening the range of multimodel diversity and harmonize the changes of different variables over the EASM region. Future changes projected by using the EPR method suggest decreased precipitation over the Meiyu belt and increased precipitation over the high latitudes of East Asia and Central China, together with a considerable weakening of EASM intensity. Furthermore, reduced precipitation appears over 30-40° N of East Asia in June and over the Meiyu belt in July, with enhanced precipitation at their north and south sides. These changes in early summer are attributed to a southeastward retreat of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) and a southward shift of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ), which weaken the moisture transport via southerly wind at low levels and alter vertical motions over the EASM region. In August, precipitation would increase over the high latitudes of East Asia with more moisture from the wetter area over the ocean in the east and decrease over Japan with westward extension of WNPSH. These monthly precipitation changes would finally contribute to a tripolar pattern of EASM precipitation change at 1.5 and 2 °C warming. Corrected EASM intensity exhibits a slight difference between 1.5 and 2 °C, but a

Joint influence of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and Northern Arabian Sea Temperatures on the Indian Summer Monsoon in a Global Climate Model Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Cubasch, Ulrich

2016-04-01

Proxy-based studies confirmed that the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) shows large variations during the Holocene. These changes might be explained by changes in orbital conditions and solar insolation but are also thought to be associated to changes in oceanic conditions, e.g. over the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool region. However, due to the nature of these (proxy-based) analyses no conclusion about atmospheric circulation changes during dry and wet epochs are possible. Here, a fully-coupled global climate simulation (AOGCM) covering the past 6000 years is analysed regarding ISM variability. Several dry and wet epochs are found, the most striking around 2ka BP (dry) and 1.7ka BP (wet). As only orbital parameters change during integration, we expect these "shorter-term" changes to be associated with changes in oceanic conditions. During 1.7ka BP the sea surface temperatures (SST) over the Northern Arabian Sea (NARAB) are significantly warmer compared to 2ka BP, whereas cooler conditions are found over the western Pacific Ocean. Additionally, significant differences are found over large parts of the North Atlantic. To explain in how far these different ocean basins are responsible for anomalous conditions during 1.7ka BP, several sensitivity experiments with changed SST/SIC conditions are carried out. It is found that neither the SST's in the Pacific nor in the Indian Ocean are able to reproduce the anomalous rainfall and atmospheric circulation patterns during 1.7ka on its own. Instead, anomalous dry conditions during 2ka BP and wet conditions during 1.7ka BP are associated with a shift of the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool (IPWP) and simultaneous anomalous sea-surface temperatures over the NARAB region. Eventually, it is tested in how far this hypothesis holds true for other dry and wet events in the AOGCM data during the whole 6000 years. In general, a shift of the IPWP without anomalous SST conditions over the NARAB region (and vice versa) is not sufficient to cause long

Warming combined with more extreme precipitation regimes modifies the water sources used by trees.

PubMed

Grossiord, Charlotte; Sevanto, Sanna; Dawson, Todd E; Adams, Henry D; Collins, Adam D; Dickman, Lee T; Newman, Brent D; Stockton, Elizabeth A; McDowell, Nate G

2017-01-01

The persistence of vegetation under climate change will depend on a plant's capacity to exploit water resources. We analyzed water source dynamics in piñon pine and juniper trees subjected to precipitation reduction, atmospheric warming, and to both simultaneously. Piñon and juniper exhibited different and opposite shifts in water uptake depth in response to experimental stress and background climate over 3 yr. During a dry summer, juniper responded to warming with a shift to shallow water sources, whereas piñon pine responded to precipitation reduction with a shift to deeper sources in autumn. In normal and wet summers, both species responded to precipitation reduction, but juniper increased deep water uptake and piñon increased shallow water uptake. Shifts in the utilization of water sources were associated with reduced stomatal conductance and photosynthesis, suggesting that belowground compensation in response to warming and water reduction did not alleviate stress impacts for gas exchange. We have demonstrated that predicted climate change could modify water sources of trees. Warming impairs juniper uptake of deep sources during extended dry periods. Precipitation reduction alters the uptake of shallow sources following extended droughts for piñon. Shifts in water sources may not compensate for climate change impacts on tree physiology. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Effects of a warm compress containing menthol on the tear film in healthy subjects and dry eye patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arita, Reiko; Morishige, Naoyuki; Sakamoto, Ichiro; Imai, Natsuko; Shimada, Yuko; Igaki, Michihito; Suzuki, Atsushi; Itoh, Kouzo; Tsubota, Kazuo

2017-04-01

Menthol is thought to stimulate lacrimation via activation of cold-sensitive primary afferent neurons in the cornea. We evaluated a warm compress containing menthol as a potential treatment for dry eye by examining its effects on the tear film in healthy subjects (n = 20) and dry eye patients (n = 35). Disposable eyelid-warming steamers that either did (MH) or did not (HO) contain menthol were applied to one eye of each subject either once only for 10 min or repeatedly over 2 weeks. Single application of MH significantly increased tear meniscus volume (P = 8.6 × 10-5, P = 1.3 × 10-5) and tear film breakup time (P = 0.006, P = 0.002) as well as improved meibum condition in healthy subjects and dry eye patients, respectively. Repeated application of MH significantly increased tear meniscus volume (P = 0.004, P = 1.7 × 10-4) and tear film breakup time (P = 0.037, P = 0.010) in healthy subjects and dry eye patients, respectively. Repeated application of MH thus induced persistent increases in tear fluid volume and tear film stability in dry eye patients, suggesting that repeated use of a warm compress containing menthol is a potential novel treatment for dry eye disease.

Competing influences of greenhouse warming and aerosols on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, William Ka-Ming; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2017-05-01

In this paper, we have compared and contrasted competing influences of greenhouse gases (GHG) warming and aerosol forcing on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall based on CMIP5 historical simulations. Under GHG-only forcing, the land warms much faster than the ocean, magnifying the pre-industrial climatological land-ocean thermal contrast and hemispheric asymmetry, i.e., warmer northern than southern hemisphere. A steady increasing warm-ocean-warmer-land (WOWL) trend has been in effect since the 1950's substantially increasing moisture transport from adjacent oceans, and enhancing rainfall over the Asian monsoon regions. However, under GHG warming, increased atmospheric stability due to strong reduction in mid-tropospheric and near surface relative humidity coupled to an expanding subsidence areas, associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (DTS, Lau and Kim, 2015b) strongly suppress monsoon convection and rainfall over subtropical and extratropical land, leading to a weakening of the Asian monsoon meridional circulation. Increased anthropogenic aerosol emission strongly masks WOWL, by over 60% over the northern hemisphere, negating to a large extent the rainfall increase due to GHG warming, and leading to a further weakening of the monsoon circulation, through increasing atmospheric stability, most likely associated with aerosol solar dimming and semi-direct effects. Overall, we find that GHG exerts stronger positive rainfall sensitivity, but less negative circulation sensitivity in SASM compared to EASM. In contrast, aerosols exert stronger negative impacts on rainfall, but less negative impacts on circulation in EASM compared to SASM.

Influences of spring-to-summer sea surface temperatures over different Indian Ocean domains on the Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhenning; Yang, Song

2017-11-01

The influences of spring-to-summer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in different domains of the Indian Ocean (IO) on the Asian summer monsoon are investigated by conducting a series of numerical experiments using the NCAR CAM4 model. It is found that, to a certain extent, the springtime IO SST anomalies can persist to the summer season. The spring-to-summer IO SST anomalies associated with the IO basin warming mode are strongly linked to the summer climate over Asia, especially the South Asian monsoon (SAM) and the East Asian monsoon. Among this connection, the warming of tropical IO plays the most critical role, and the warming of southern IO is important for monsoon variation and prediction prior to the full development of the monsoon. The atmospheric response to IO basin wide warming is similar with that to tropical IO warming. The influence of northern IO warming on the SAM, however, is opposite to the effect of southern IO warming. Meanwhile, the discrepancies between the results from idealized SST forcing simulations and observations, especially for the southern IO, reveal that the dominant role of air-sea interaction in the monsoon-IO coupled system cannot be ignored. Moreover, the springtime northern IO warming seems to favor an early onset or a stronger persistence of the SAM.

Arctic Sea Ice Is Losing Its Bulwark Against Warming Summers

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

Arctic sea ice, the vast sheath of frozen seawater floating on the Arctic Ocean and its neighboring seas, has been hit with a double whammy over the past decades: as its extent shrunk, the oldest and thickest ice has either thinned or melted away, leaving the sea ice cap more vulnerable to the warming ocean and atmosphere. “What we’ve seen over the years is that the older ice is disappearing,” said Walt Meier, a sea ice researcher at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “This older, thicker ice is like the bulwark of sea ice: a warm summer will melt all the young, thin ice away but it can’t completely get rid of the older ice. But this older ice is becoming weaker because there’s less of it and the remaining old ice is more broken up and thinner, so that bulwark is not as good as it used to be.” Read more: go.nasa.gov/2dPJ9zT NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

North Atlantic early 20th century warming and impact on European summer: Mechanisms and Predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Wolfgang

2017-04-01

During the last century, substantial climate variations in the North Atlantic have occurred, such as the warmings in the 1920s and 1990s. Such variations are considered to be part of the variability known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variations (AMV) and have a strong impact on local climates such as European summers. Here a synthesis of previous works is presented which describe the occurrence of the warming in the 1920s in the North Atlantic and its impact on the European summer climate (Müller et al. 2014, 2015). For this the 20th century reanalysis (20CR) and 20CR forced ocean experiments are evaluated. It can be shown that the North Atlantic Current and Sub-Polar Gyre are strengthened as a result of an increased pressure gradient over the North Atlantic. Concurrently, Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) increase. The intensified NAC, SPG, and AMOC redistribute sub-tropical water into the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, thereby increasing observed and modelled temperature and salinity during the 1920s. Further a mechanism is proposed by which North Atlantic heat fluxes associated with the AMV modulate European decadal summer climate (Ghosh et al. 2016). By using 20CR, it can be shown that multi-decadal variations in the European summer temperature are associated to a linear baroclinic atmospheric response to the AMV-related surface heat flux. This response induce a sea level pressure structure modulating meridional temperature advection over north-western Europe and Blocking statistics over central Europe. This structure is shown to be the leading mode of variability and is independent of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation. Ghosh, R., W.A. Müller, J. Bader, and J. Baehr, 2016: Impact of observed North Atlantic multidecadal variations to European summer climate: A linear baroclinic response to surface heating. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.10007/s00382-016-3283-4 Müller W. A., D. Matei, M. Bersch, J. H. Jungclaus, H. Haak, K

Coupled long-term summer warming and deeper snow alters species composition and stimulates gross primary productivity in tussock tundra.

PubMed

Leffler, A Joshua; Klein, Eric S; Oberbauer, Steven F; Welker, Jeffrey M

2016-05-01

Climate change is expected to increase summer temperature and winter precipitation throughout the Arctic. The long-term implications of these changes for plant species composition, plant function, and ecosystem processes are difficult to predict. We report on the influence of enhanced snow depth and warmer summer temperature following 20 years of an ITEX experimental manipulation at Toolik Lake, Alaska. Winter snow depth was increased using snow fences and warming was accomplished during summer using passive open-top chambers. One of the most important consequences of these experimental treatments was an increase in active layer depth and rate of thaw, which has led to deeper drainage and lower soil moisture content. Vegetation concomitantly shifted from a relatively wet system with high cover of the sedge Eriophorum vaginatum to a drier system, dominated by deciduous shrubs including Betula nana and Salix pulchra. At the individual plant level, we observed higher leaf nitrogen concentration associated with warmer temperatures and increased snow in S. pulchra and B. nana, but high leaf nitrogen concentration did not lead to higher rates of net photosynthesis. At the ecosystem level, we observed higher GPP and NEE in response to summer warming. Our results suggest that deeper snow has a cascading set of biophysical consequences that include a deeper active layer that leads to altered species composition, greater leaf nitrogen concentration, and higher ecosystem-level carbon uptake.

TRMM-observed summer warm rain over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean: Characteristics and regional differences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Fang; Fu, Yunfei

2016-06-01

Based on the merged measurements from the TRMM Precipitation Radar and Visible and Infrared Scanner, refined characteristics (intensity, frequency, vertical structure, and diurnal variation) and regional differences of the warm rain over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40ffiS-40ffiN, 120ffiE-70ffiW) in boreal summer are investigated for the period 1998-2012. The results reveal that three warm rain types (phased, pure, and mixed) exist over these regions. The phased warm rain, which occurs during the developing or declining stage of precipitation weather systems, is located over the central to western Intertropical Convergence Zone, South Pacific Convergence Zone, and Northwest Pacific. Its occurrence frequency peaks at midnight and minimizes during daytime with a 5.5-km maximum echo top. The frequency of this warm rain type is about 2.2%, and it contributes to 40% of the regional total rainfall. The pure warm rain is characterized by typical stable precipitation with an echo top lower than 4 km, and mostly occurs in Southeast Pacific. Although its frequency is less than 1.3%, this type of warm rain accounts for 95% of the regional total rainfall. Its occurrence peaks before dawn and it usually disappears in the afternoon. For the mixed warm rain, some may develop into deep convective precipitation, while most are similar to those of the pure type. The mixed warm rain is mainly located over the ocean east of Hawaii. Its frequency is 1.2%, but this type of warm rain could contribute to 80% of the regional total rainfall. The results also uncover that the mixed and pure types occur over the regions where SST ranges from 295 to 299 K, accompanied by relatively strong downdrafts at 500 hPa. Both the mixed and pure warm rains happen in a more unstable atmosphere, compared with the phased warm rain.

Terra Data Confirm Warm, Dry U.S. Winter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

New maps of land surface temperature and snow cover produced by NASA's Terra satellite show this year's winter was warmer than last year's, and the snow line stayed farther north than normal. The observations confirm earlier National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that the United States was unusually warm and dry this past winter. (Click to read the NASA press release and to access higher-resolution images.) For the last two years, a new sensor aboard Terra has been collecting the most detailed global measurements ever made of our world's land surface temperatures and snow cover. The Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is already giving scientists new insights into our changing planet. Average temperatures during December 2001 through February 2002 for the contiguous United States appear to have been unseasonably warm from the Rockies eastward. In the top image the coldest temperatures appear black, while dark green, blue, red, yellow, and white indicate progressively warmer temperatures. MODIS observes both land surface temperature and emissivity, which indicates how efficiently a surface absorbs and emits thermal radiation. Compared to the winter of 2000-01, temperatures throughout much of the U.S. were warmer in 2001-02. The bottom image depicts the differences on a scale from dark blue (colder this year than last) to red (warmer this year than last). A large region of warm temperatures dominated the northern Great Plains, while the area around the Great Salt Lake was a cold spot. Images courtesy Robert Simmon, NASA GSFC, based upon data courtesy Zhengming Wan, MODIS Land Science Team member at the University of California, Santa Barbara's Institute for Computational Earth System Science

The Summer Monsoon of 1987.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnamurti, T. N.; Bedi, H. S.; Subramaniam, M.

1989-04-01

In this paper we have examined the evolution of a number of parameters we believe were important for our understanding of the drought over India during the summer of 1987. The list of parameters includes monthly means or anomalies of the following fields: sea surface temperatures, divergent circulations, outgoing longwave radiation, streamfunction of the lower and upper troposphere, and monthly precipitation (expressed as a percentage departure from a long-term mean). The El Niño related warm sea surface temperature anomaly and a weaker warm sea surface temperature anomaly over the equatorial Indian Ocean provide sustained convection, as reflected by the negative values of the outgoing longwave radiation. With the seasonal heating, a pronounced planetary-scale divergent circulation evolved with a center along the western Pacific Ocean. The monsoonal divergent circulation merged with that related to the El Niño, maintaining most of the heavy rainfall activity between the equatorial Pacific Ocean and east Asia. Persistent convective activity continued south of India during the entire monsoon season. Strong Hadley type overturnings with rising motions over these warm SST anomaly regions and descent roughly near 20° to 25°S was evident as early as April 1987. The subtropical high pressure areas near 20° to 25°S showed stronger than normal circulations. This was revealed by the presence of a counterclockwise streamfunction anomaly at 850 mb during April 1987. With the seasonal heating, this anomaly moved northwards and was located over the Arabian Sea and India. This countermonsoon circulation anomaly at the low levels was associated with a weaker than normal Somali jet and Arabian Sea circulation throughout this summer. The monsoon remained active along northeast India, Bangladesh, northern lndochina, and central China during the summer monsoon season. This was related to the eastward shift of the divergent circulation. An eastward shift of the upper tropospheric

CMIP5 projected changes in spring and summer drought and wet conditions over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Sharmistha; Hayhoe, Katharine

2015-05-01

Climate change is expected to alter the mean and variability of future spring and summer drought and wet conditions during the twenty-first century across North America, as characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations, statistically significant increases are projected in mean spring SPI over the northern part of the continent, and drier conditions across the southwest. Dry conditions in summer also increase, particularly throughout the central Great Plains. By end of century, greater changes are projected under a higher radiative forcing scenario (RCP 8.5) as compared to moderate (RCP 6.0) and lower (RCP 4.5). Analysis of projected changes standardized to a range of global warming thresholds from +1 to +4 °C reveals a consistent spatial pattern of wetter conditions in the northern and drier conditions in the southwestern part of the continent in spring that intensifies under increased warming, suggesting that the magnitude of projected changes in wetness and drought may scale with global temperature. For many regions, SPI interannual variability is also projected to increase (even for regions that are projected to become drier), indicating that climate may become more extreme under greater warming, with increased frequency of both extreme dry and wet seasons. Quantifying the direction and magnitude of projected future trends from global warming is key to informing strategies to mitigate human influence on climate and help natural and managed resources adapt.

Regional warming of hot extremes accelerated by surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donat, M.; Pitman, A.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2017-12-01

Strong regional differences exist in how hot temperature extremes increase under global warming. Using an ensemble of coupled climate models, we examine the regional warming rates of hot extremes relative to annual average warming rates in the same regions. We identify hotspots of accelerated warming of model-simulated hot extremes in Europe, North America, South America and Southeast China. These hotspots indicate where the warm tail of a distribution of temperatures increases faster than the average and are robust across most CMIP5 models. Exploring the conditions on the specific day the hot extreme occurs demonstrates the hotspots are explained by changes in the surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils. Furthermore, in these hotspot regions we find a relationship between the temperature - heat flux correlation under current climate conditions and the magnitude of future projected changes in hot extremes, pointing to a potential emergent constraint for simulations of future hot extremes. However, the model-simulated accelerated warming of hot extremes appears inconsistent with observations of the past 60 years, except over Europe. The simulated acceleration of hot extremes may therefore be unreliable, a result that necessitates a re-evaluation of how climate models resolve the relevant terrestrial processes.

[Effects of controlled release nitrogen fertilizer application on dry matter accumulation and nitrogen balance of summer maize].

PubMed

Si, Dong-Xia; Cui, Zhen-Ling; Chen, Xin-Ping; Lü, Fu-Tang

2014-06-01

Effects of four controlled release nitrogen (N) fertilizers, including two kinds of polyester coated urea (Ncau, CRU) and phosphate (NhnP) and humic acid (NhnF) coated urea on assimilates accumulation and nitrogen balance of summer maize were investigated in a mode of one-time fertilization at the regional N recommended rate. The results showed that the N release curves of the two controlled release fertilizers CRU and Ncau matched well with the summer maize N uptake. Compared with the regional N recommendation rate, CRU could increase maize yield by 4.2% and Ncau could maintain the same yield level. CRU significantly increased the dry matter accumulation rate after anthesis of summer maize, but Ncau markedly increased the dry matter accumulated ratio before anthesis. Meanwhile, CRU could reduce the apparent N losses by 19 kg N x hm(-2) in the case of large precipitation. However, NhnF and NhnP caused the yield losses by 0.1%-8.9%, and enhanced the apparent N losses. Therefore, both CRU and Ncau with one-time fertilization could be a simplified alternative to the "total control, staging regulation" fertilization technique at the regional N recommended rate for summer maize production.

Continuous Nanoclimate Data (1985-1988) from the Ross Desert (McMurdo Dry Valleys) Cryptoendolithic Microbial Ecosystem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McKay, Christopher P.; Nienow, James; Meyer, Michael A.; Friedmann, E. Imre

1993-01-01

We have collected year-round nanoclimate data for the cryptoendolithic microbial habitat in sandstones of the Ross desert, Antarctica, obtained with an Argos satellite data system. Data for two sites in the McMurdo Dry Valleys are available: Linnaeus Terrace, January 1985 to June 1988, and Battleship Promontory, 1986-1987. The focus of this research is ecological, and hence year-round environmental data have been obtained for the ambient environment as well as for conditions within the rock. Using data from the summer, we compare the conditions inside the rock to the outside weather. This demonstrates how the rock provides a shelter for the endolithic microbial community. The most important property of the rock is that it absorbs the summer sunlight, thereby warming up to temperatures above freezing. This warming allows snowmelt to seep into the rock, and the moisture level in the rocks can remain high for weeks against loss to the dry environment.

Role of atmospheric heating over the South China Sea and western Pacific regions in modulating Asian summer climate under the global warming background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Bian; Yang, Song; Li, Zhenning

2016-05-01

The response of monsoon precipitation to global warming, which is one of the most significant climate change signals at the earth's surface, exhibits very distinct regional features, especially over the South China Sea (SCS) and adjacent regions in boreal summer. To understand the possible atmospheric dynamics in these specific regions under the global warming background, changes in atmospheric heating and their possible influences on Asian summer climate are investigated by both observational diagnosis and numerical simulations. Results indicate that heating in the middle troposphere has intensified in the SCS and western Pacific regions in boreal summer, accompanied by increased precipitation, cloud cover, and lower-tropospheric convergence and decreased sea level pressure. Sensitivity experiments show that middle and upper tropospheric heating causes an east-west feedback pattern between SCS and western Pacific and continental South Asia, which strengthens the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and moist convergence in the lower troposphere, consequently forcing a descending motion and adiabatic warming over continental South Asia. When air-sea interaction is considered, the simulation results are overall more similar to observations, and in particular the bias of precipitation over the Indian Ocean simulated by AGCMs has been reduced. The result highlights the important role of air-sea interaction in understanding the changes in Asian climate.

High occurrence of cyclosporiasis in Istanbul, Turkey, during a dry and warm summer

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

We evaluated the incidence of Cyclospora cayetanensis in immunocompetent, diarrheic patients during the summers of 2006-2009 in Istanbul. Stools from 1876 patients were examined using microscopic techniques. Cyclospora oocysts were observed in wet preparations by light and epifluorescence microscopy and in fecal smears that were stained by Kinyoun's modified acid-fast stain. Characteristic Cyclospora oocysts were observed in 2 patients in 2006, 17 in 2007, and one in 2009. Samples positive for Cyclospora were further analyzed by a single step polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with Cyclospora-specific primers from the ITS-1 region of the genome. The majority of the Cyclospora positive cases (15) were clustered during about 15 days in June 2007, indicating an unusual incidence of cyclosporiasis in this time period. The climatic characteristics of 2007 could have played a role in this high occurrence rate. PMID:20416057

Transition from a warm and dry to a cold and wet climate in NE China across the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Yanhong; Pancost, Richard D.; Naafs, B. David A.; Li, Qiyuan; Liu, Zhao; Yang, Huan

2018-07-01

Northeast (NE) China lies in the northernmost part of the East Asian Summer monsoon (EASM) region. Although a series of Holocene climatic records have been obtained from lakes and peats in this region, the Holocene hydrological history and its controls remain unclear. More specifically, it is currently debated whether NE China experienced a dry or wet climate during the early Holocene. Here we reconstruct changes in mean annual air temperature and peat soil moisture across the last ∼13,000 year BP using samples from the Gushantun and Hani peat, located in NE China. Our approach is based on the distribution of bacterial branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) and the abundance of the archaeal isoprenoidal (iso)GDGT crenarchaeol. Using the recently developed peat-specific MAATpeat temperature calibration we find that NE China experienced a relatively warm early Holocene (∼5-7 °C warmer than today), followed by a cooling trend towards modern-day values during the mid- and late Holocene. Moreover, crenarchaeol concentrations, brGDGT-based pH values, and the distribution of 6-methyl brGDGTs, all indicate an increase in soil moisture content from the early to late Holocene in both peats, which is largely consistent with other data from NE China. This trend towards increasing soil moisture/wetter conditions across the Holocene in NE China records contrasts with the trends observed in other parts of the EASM region, which exhibit an early and/or mid-Holocene moisture/precipitation maximum. However, the Holocene soil moisture variations and temperature-moisture relationships (warm-dry and cold-wet) observed in NE China are similar to those observed in the core area of arid central Asia which is dominated by the westerlies. We therefore propose that an increase in the intensity of the westerlies across the Holocene, driven by increasing winter insolation, expanding Arctic sea ice extent and the enhanced Okhotsk High, caused an increase in moisture

Global warming and allergy in Asia Minor.

PubMed

Bajin, Munir Demir; Cingi, Cemal; Oghan, Fatih; Gurbuz, Melek Kezban

2013-01-01

The earth is warming, and it is warming quickly. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that global warming is correlated with the frequency of pollen-induced respiratory allergy and allergic diseases. There is a body of evidence suggesting that the prevalence of allergic diseases induced by pollens is increasing in developed countries, a trend that is also evident in the Mediterranean area. Because of its mild winters and sunny days with dry summers, the Mediterranean area is different from the areas of central and northern Europe. Classical examples of allergenic pollen-producing plants of the Mediterranean climate include Parietaria, Olea and Cupressaceae. Asia Minor is a Mediterranean region that connects Asia and Europe, and it includes considerable coastal areas. Gramineae pollens are the major cause of seasonal allergic rhinitis in Asia Minor, affecting 1.3-6.4 % of the population, in accordance with other European regions. This article emphasizes the importance of global climate change and anticipated increases in the prevalence and severity of allergic disease in Asia Minor, mediated through worsening air pollution and altered local and regional pollen production, from an otolaryngologic perspective.

Tree water dynamics in a drying and warming world: Future tree water dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grossiord, Charlotte; Sevanto, Sanna; Borrego, Isaac

Disentangling the relative impacts of precipitation reduction and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) on plant water dynamics and determining whether acclimation may influence these patterns in the future is an important challenge. Here, we report sap flux density (FD), stomatal conductance (Gs), hydraulic conductivity (KL) and xylem anatomy in piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) trees subjected to five years of precipitation reduction, atmospheric warming (elevated VPD) and their combined effects. No acclimation occurred under precipitation reduction: lower Gs and FD were found for both species compared to ambient conditions. Warming reduced the sensibility of stomata to VPD formore » both species but resulted in the maintenance of Gs and FD to ambient levels only for piñon. For juniper, reduced soil moisture under warming negated benefits of stomatal adjustments and resulted in reduced FD, Gs and KL. Although reduced stomatal sensitivity to VPD also occurred under combined stresses, reductions in Gs, FD and KL took place to similar levels as under single stresses for both species. Our results show that stomatal conductance adjustments to high VPD could minimize but not entirely prevent additive effects of warming and drying on water use and carbon acquisition of trees in semi-arid regions.« less

Separating climate change signals into thermodynamic, lapse-rate and circulation effects: theory and application to the European summer climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kröner, Nico; Kotlarski, Sven; Fischer, Erich; Lüthi, Daniel; Zubler, Elias; Schär, Christoph

2017-05-01

Climate models robustly project a strong overall summer warming across Europe showing a characteristic north-south gradient with enhanced warming and drying in southern Europe. However, the processes that are responsible for this pattern are not fully understood. We here employ an extended surrogate or pseudo-warming approach to disentangle the contribution of different mechanisms to this response pattern. The basic idea of the surrogate technique is to use a regional climate model and apply a large-scale warming to the lateral boundary conditions of a present-day reference simulation, while maintaining the relative humidity (and thus implicitly increasing the specific moisture content). In comparison to previous studies, our approach includes two important extensions: first, different vertical warming profiles are applied in order to separate the effects of a mean warming from lapse-rate effects. Second, a twin-design is used, in which the climate change signals are not only added to present-day conditions, but also subtracted from a scenario experiment. We demonstrate that these extensions provide an elegant way to separate the full climate change signal into contributions from large-scale thermodynamic (TD), lapse-rate (LR), and circulation and other remaining effects (CO). The latter in particular include changes in land-ocean contrast and spatial variations of the SST warming patterns. We find that the TD effect yields a large-scale warming across Europe with no distinct latitudinal gradient. The LR effect, which is quantified for the first time in our study, leads to a stronger warming and some drying in southern Europe. It explains about 50 % of the warming amplification over the Iberian Peninsula, thus demonstrating the important role of lapse-rate changes. The effect is linked to an extending Hadley circulation. The CO effect as inherited from the driving GCM is shown to further amplify the north-south temperature change gradient. In terms of mean summer

Detecting Climate Signals in Precipitation Extremes from TRMM (1998-2013) - Increasing Contrast Between Wet and Dry Extremes During the "Global Warming Hiatus"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Huey-Tzu Jenny; Lau, William K.-M.

2016-01-01

We investigate changes in daily precipitation extremes using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (1998-2013), which coincides with the "global warming hiatus." Results show a change in probability distribution functions of local precipitation events (LPEs) during this period consistent with previous global warming studies, indicating increasing contrast between wet and dry extremes, with more intense LPE, less moderate LPE, and more dry (no rain) days globally. Analyses for land and ocean separately reveal more complex and nuanced changes over land, characterized by a strong positive trend (+12.0% per decade, 99% confidence level (c.l.)) in frequency of extreme LPEs over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the wet season but a negative global trend (-6.6% per decade, 95% c.l.) during the dry season. A significant global drying trend (3.2% per decade, 99% c.l.) over land is also found during the dry season. Regions of pronounced increased dry events include western and central U.S., northeastern Asia, and Southern Europe/Mediterranean.

Valley floor climate observations from the McMurdo dry valleys, Antarctica, 1986-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doran, P.T.; McKay, C.P.; Clow, G.D.; Dana, G.L.; Fountain, A.G.; Nylen, T.; Lyons, W.B.

2002-01-01

Climate observations from the McMurdo dry valleys, East Antarctica are presented from a network of seven valley floor automatic meteorological stations during the period 1986 to 2000. Mean annual temperatures ranged from -14.8??C to -30.0??C, depending on the site and period of measurement. Mean annual relative humidity is generally highest near the coast. Mean annual wind speed increases with proximity to the polar plateau. Site-to-site variation in mean annual solar flux and PAR is due to exposure of each station and changes over time are likely related to changes in cloudiness. During the nonsummer months, strong katabatic winds are frequent at some sites and infrequent at others, creating large variation in mean annual temperature owing to the warming effect of the winds. Katabatic wind exposure appears to be controlled to a large degree by the presence of colder air in the region that collects at low points and keeps the warm less dense katabatic flow from the ground. The strong influence of katabatic winds makes prediction of relative mean annual temperature based on geographical position (elevation and distance from the coast) alone, not possible. During the summer months, onshore winds dominate and warm as they progress through the valleys creating a strong linear relationship (r2 = 0.992) of increasing potential temperature with distance from the coast (0.09??C km-1). In contrast to mean annual temperature, summer temperature lends itself quite well to model predictions, and is used to construct a statistical model for predicting summer dry valley temperatures at unmonitored sites. Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union.

North Atlantic summers have warmed more than winters since 1353, and the response of marine zooplankton.

PubMed

Kamenos, Nicholas A

2010-12-28

Modeling and measurements show that Atlantic marine temperatures are rising; however, the low temporal resolution of models and restricted spatial resolution of measurements (i) mask regional details critical for determining the rate and extent of climate variability, and (ii) prevent robust determination of climatic impacts on marine ecosystems. To address both issues for the North East Atlantic, a fortnightly resolution marine climate record from 1353-2006 was constructed for shallow inshore waters and compared to changes in marine zooplankton abundance. For the first time summer marine temperatures are shown to have increased nearly twice as much as winter temperatures since 1353. Additional climatic instability began in 1700 characterized by ∼5-65 year climate oscillations that appear to be a recent phenomenon. Enhanced summer-specific warming reduced the abundance of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, a key food item of cod, and led to significantly lower projected abundances by 2040 than at present. The faster increase of summer marine temperatures has implications for climate projections and affects abundance, and thus biomass, near the base of the marine food web with potentially significant feedback effects for marine food security.

Parasitic copepod (Lernaea cyprinacea) outbreaks in foothill yellow-legged frogs (Rana boylii) linked to unusually warm summers in northern California

Treesearch

Sarah J. Kupferberg; Alessandro Catenazzi; Kevin Lunde; Amy J. Lind; Wendy J. Palen

2009-01-01

How climate change may affect parasite–host assemblages and emerging infectious diseases is an important question in amphibian decline research. We present data supporting a link between periods of unusually warm summer water temperatures during 2006 and 2008 in a northern California river, outbreaks of the parasitic copepod Lernaea cyprinacea, and...

Experimental climate warming decreases photosynthetic efficiency of lichens in an arid South African ecosystem.

PubMed

Maphangwa, Khumbudzo Walter; Musil, Charles F; Raitt, Lincoln; Zedda, Luciana

2012-05-01

Elevated temperatures and diminished precipitation amounts accompanying climate warming in arid ecosystems are expected to have adverse effects on the photosynthesis of lichen species sensitive to elevated temperature and/or water limitation. This premise was tested by artificially elevating temperatures (increase 2.1-3.8°C) and reducing the amounts of fog and dew precipitation (decrease 30.1-31.9%), in an approximation of future climate warming scenarios, using transparent hexagonal open-top warming chambers placed around natural populations of four lichen species (Xanthoparmelia austroafricana, X. hyporhytida , Xanthoparmelia. sp., Xanthomaculina hottentotta) at a dry inland site and two lichen species (Teloschistes capensis and Ramalina sp.) at a humid coastal site in the arid South African Succulent Karoo Biome. Effective photosynthetic quantum yields ([Formula: see text]) were measured hourly throughout the day at monthly intervals in pre-hydrated lichens present in the open-top warming chambers and in controls which comprised demarcated plots of equivalent open-top warming chamber dimensions constructed from 5-cm-diameter mesh steel fencing. The cumulative effects of the elevated temperatures and diminished precipitation amounts in the open-top warming chambers resulted in significant decreases in lichen [Formula: see text]. The decreases were more pronounced in lichens from the dry inland site (decline 34.1-46.1%) than in those from the humid coastal site (decline 11.3-13.7%), most frequent and prominent in lichens at both sites during the dry summer season, and generally of greatest magnitude at or after the solar noon in all seasons. Based on these results, we conclude that climate warming interacting with reduced precipitation will negatively affect carbon balances in endemic lichens by increasing desiccation damage and reducing photosynthetic activity time, leading to increased incidences of mortality.

Slow coolant phaseout could worsen warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reese, April

2018-03-01

In the summer of 2016, temperatures in Phalodi, an old caravan town on a dry plain in northwestern India, reached a blistering 51°C—a record high during a heat wave that claimed more than 1600 lives across the country. Wider access to air conditioning (AC) could have prevented many deaths—but only 8% of India's 249 million households have AC. As the nation's economy booms, that figure could rise to 50% by 2050. And that presents a dilemma: As India expands access to a life-saving technology, it must comply with international mandates—the most recent imposed just last fall—to eliminate coolants that harm stratospheric ozone or warm the atmosphere.

Analysis of extreme summers and prior late winter/spring conditions in central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Träger-Chatterjee, C.; Müller, R. W.; Bendix, J.

2013-05-01

Drought and heat waves during summer in mid-latitudes are a serious threat to human health and agriculture and have negative impacts on the infrastructure, such as problems in energy supply. The appearance of such extreme events is expected to increase with the progress of global warming. A better understanding of the development of extremely hot and dry summers and the identification of possible precursors could help improve existing seasonal forecasts in this regard, and could possibly lead to the development of early warning methods. The development of extremely hot and dry summer seasons in central Europe is attributed to a combined effect of the dominance of anticyclonic weather regimes and soil moisture-atmosphere interactions. The atmospheric circulation largely determines the amount of solar irradiation and the amount of precipitation in an area. These two variables are themselves major factors controlling the soil moisture. Thus, solar irradiation and precipitation are used as proxies to analyse extreme sunny and dry late winter/spring and summer seasons for the period 1958-2011 in Germany and adjacent areas. For this purpose, solar irradiation data from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast 40-yr and interim re-analysis dataset, as well as remote sensing data are used. Precipitation data are taken from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. To analyse the atmospheric circulation geopotential data at 850 hPa are also taken from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast 40-yr and interim re-analysis datasets. For the years in which extreme summers in terms of high solar irradiation and low precipitation are identified, the previous late winter/spring conditions of solar irradiation and precipitation in Germany and adjacent areas are analysed. Results show that if the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not very intensely developed, extremely high solar irradiation amounts, together with extremely low precipitation

Glaciers in Equilibrium - Results from the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fountain, A. G.; Nylen, T. H.; Doran, P. T.

2004-12-01

Since 1993 the mass balance of two glaciers in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica (163° E 77.5° S) has been measured. The magnitude of annual mass gain or loss does not exceed 10 cm water equivalent averaged over each glacier, consistent with the local climate of a polar desert. The overall trend in mass balance shows that the glaciers are in approximate balance with the current climate and no obvious trends exist in either the winter or summer balances. These are similar to a set of mass balance measurements made in another part of the dry valleys during the 1970s (Chinn, 1985). Recent analysis of the climate of the dry valleys shows this region is cooling at a rate of 0.7° C per decade during this period since 1986, which is reflected in the overall lowering of lake levels, decreased primary productivity of the lakes, and declining number of invertebrates (Doran et al., 2002). Although an unusually warm period occurred in the summer of 2001-2002, annual temperatures continue to cool. This region seems to be isolated from the warming elsewhere in Antarctica and the cooling in this part of the Ross Sea region may be due to El Nino forcing (Bertler et al, 2004). The sluggish behavior of the glaciers results from a low mass exchange and an apparent climatic buffering, which supports evidence from the geologic record that these glaciers have not advanced more than a few hundred meters over the past 3 million years (Hall et al., 1993). Many of the glaciers, however, are advancing which probably results from a slow time-scale response from warming conditions in the past millennium.

Assessment of long-term monthly and seasonal trends of warm (cold), wet (dry) spells in Kansas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dokoohaki, H.; Anandhi, A.

2013-12-01

A few recent studies have focused on trends in rainfall, temperature, and frost indicators at different temporal scales using centennial weather station data in Kansas; our study supplements this work by assessing the changes in spell indicators in Kansas. These indicators provide the duration between temperature-based (warm and cold) and precipitation-based (wet and dry) spells. For wet (dry) spell calculations, a wet day is defined as a day with precipitation ≥1 mm, and a dry day is defined as one with precipitation ≤1 mm. For warm (cold) spell calculations, a warm day is defined as a day with maximum temperature >90th percentile of daily maximum temperature, and a cold day is defined as a day with minimum temperature <10th percentile of daily minimum temperature. The percentiles are calculated for 1971-2000, and four spell indicators are calculated: Average Wet Spell Length (AWSL), Dry Spell Length (ADSL), Average Warm Spell Days (AWSD) and Average Cold Spell Days (ACSD) are calculated. Data were provided from 23 centennial weather stations across Kansas, and all calculations were done for four time periods (through 1919, 1920-1949, 1950-1979, and 1980-2009). The definitions and software provided by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were adapted for application to Kansas. The long- and short-term trends in these indices were analyzed at monthly and seasonal timescales. Monthly results indicate that ADSL is decreasing and AWSL is increasing throughout the state. AWSD and ACSD both showed an overall decreasing trend, but AWSD trends were variable during the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Results of seasonal analysis revealed that the fall season recorded the greatest increasing trend for ACSD and the greatest decreasing trend for AWSD across the whole state and during all time periods. Similarly, the greatest increasing and decreasing trends occurred in winter for AWSL and ADSL, respectively. These variations can be

Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winslow, Luke; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Rose, Kevin C.; Robertson, Dale M.

2017-01-01

Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr−1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr−1). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr−1), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr−1 to 0.035°C yr−1, SD: 0.034°C yr−1). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.

Mechanisms of Robust Future Spring Drying in the Southwest U.S. in CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ting, M.; Seager, R.; Li, C.; Liu, H.

2017-12-01

The net surface water budget, precipitation minus evaporation (P-E), shows a clear seasonal cycle in the American Southwest with net gain of surface water (positive P-E) in the cold half of the year (October to March) and net loss of water (negative P-E) in the warmer half (April - September), with June and July being the driest time of the year. There is a significant shift of the summer drying toward earlier in the year under CO2 warming scenario, resulting in substantial spring drying (MAM) of the American Southwest, from the near-term future (2021 - 2040) to the end of the current Century with gradually increasing magnitude. While the spring drying has been identified in previous studies, its mechanism has not been fully addressed. Using moisture budget analysis, we found that the drying is mainly due to decreased mean moisture convergence, partially compensated by the increase in transient eddy moisture flux convergence. The decreased mean moisture convergence is further separated into those due to changes in circulation (dynamic changes) and changes in atmospheric moisture content (thermodynamic changes). The drying is found to be dominated by the thermodynamic driven changes in column averaged moisture convergence, due mainly to increased dry zonal advection caused by the climatological land-ocean thermal contrast, rather than by the well-known "dry gets drier" mechanism. Furthermore, the enhanced dry advection in the warming climate is dominated by the robust zonal mean atmospheric warming, thus the spring drying in Southwest US is very robust. We also discuss reasons this future drying is particularly strong in the spring as compared to the other seasons.

A possible cause of the AO polarity reversal from winter to summer in 2010 and its relation to hemispheric extreme summer weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otomi, Yuriko; Tachibana, Yoshihiro; Nakamura, Tetsu

2013-04-01

In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), that is, low pressure in the Arctic and high pressure in the midlatitudes. In contrast, the AO index the previous winter and spring (2009/2010) was record-breaking negative. The AO polarity reversal that began in summer 2010 can explain the abnormally hot summer. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern—warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes—under the influence of the negative AO. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. A model simulation strongly suggested that the AO-related summertime North Atlantic oceanic warm temperature anomalies remotely caused blocking highs to form over Europe, which amplified the positive summertime AO. Thus, a possible cause of the AO polarity reversal might be the "memory" of the negative winter AO in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting an interseasonal linkage of the AO in which the oceanic memory of a wintertime negative AO induces a positive AO in the following summer. Understanding of this interseasonal linkage may aid in the long-term prediction of such abnormal summer events.

A possible cause of the AO polarity reversal from winter to summer in 2010 and its relation to hemispheric extreme hot summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tachibana, Yoshihiro; Otomi, Yuriko; Nakamura, Tetsu

2013-04-01

In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), that is, low pressure in the Arctic and high pressure in the midlatitudes. In contrast, the AO index the previous winter and spring (2009/2010) was record-breaking negative. The AO polarity reversal that began in summer 2010 can explain the abnormally hot summer. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern—warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes—under the influence of the negative AO. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. A model simulation strongly suggested that the AO-related summertime North Atlantic oceanic warm temperature anomalies remotely caused blocking highs to form over Europe, which amplified the positive summertime AO. Thus, a possible cause of the AO polarity reversal might be the "memory" of the negative winter AO in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting an interseasonal linkage of the AO in which the oceanic memory of a wintertime negative AO induces a positive AO in the following summer. Understanding of this interseasonal linkage may aid in the long-term prediction of such abnormal summer events.

A warming tropical central Pacific dries the lower stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Qinghua; Fu, Qiang

2018-04-01

The amount of water vapor in the tropical lower stratosphere (TLS), which has an important influence on the radiative energy budget of the climate system, is modulated by the temperature variability of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). The TTL temperature variability is caused by a complex combination of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), tropospheric convective processes in the tropics, and the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) driven by mid-latitude and subtropical atmospheric waves. In 2000, the TLS water vapor amount exhibited a stepwise transition to a dry phase, apparently caused by a change in the BDC. In this study, we present observational and modeling evidence that the epochal change of water vapor between the periods of 1992-2000 and 2001-2005 was also partly caused by a concurrent sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the tropical central Pacific. This SST warming cools the TTL above by enhancing the equatorial wave-induced upward motion near the tropopause, which consequently reduces the amount of water vapor entering the stratosphere. The QBO affects the TLS water vapor primarily on inter-annual timescales, whereas a classical El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) event has small effect on tropical mean TLS water vapor because its responses are longitudinally out of phase. This study suggests that the tropical central Pacific SST is another driver of TLS water vapor variability on inter-decadal timescales and the tropical SST changes could contribute to about 30% of the step-wise drop of the lower stratospheric water vapor from 1992-2000 to 2001-2005.

A hydrogeologic framework for characterizing summer streamflow sensitivity to climate warming in the Pacific Northwest, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safeeq, M.; Grant, G. E.; Lewis, S. L.; Kramer, M. G.; Staab, B.

2014-09-01

Summer streamflows in the Pacific Northwest are largely derived from melting snow and groundwater discharge. As the climate warms, diminishing snowpack and earlier snowmelt will cause reductions in summer streamflow. Most regional-scale assessments of climate change impacts on streamflow use downscaled temperature and precipitation projections from general circulation models (GCMs) coupled with large-scale hydrologic models. Here we develop and apply an analytical hydrogeologic framework for characterizing summer streamflow sensitivity to a change in the timing and magnitude of recharge in a spatially explicit fashion. In particular, we incorporate the role of deep groundwater, which large-scale hydrologic models generally fail to capture, into streamflow sensitivity assessments. We validate our analytical streamflow sensitivities against two empirical measures of sensitivity derived using historical observations of temperature, precipitation, and streamflow from 217 watersheds. In general, empirically and analytically derived streamflow sensitivity values correspond. Although the selected watersheds cover a range of hydrologic regimes (e.g., rain-dominated, mixture of rain and snow, and snow-dominated), sensitivity validation was primarily driven by the snow-dominated watersheds, which are subjected to a wider range of change in recharge timing and magnitude as a result of increased temperature. Overall, two patterns emerge from this analysis: first, areas with high streamflow sensitivity also have higher summer streamflows as compared to low-sensitivity areas. Second, the level of sensitivity and spatial extent of highly sensitive areas diminishes over time as the summer progresses. Results of this analysis point to a robust, practical, and scalable approach that can help assess risk at the landscape scale, complement the downscaling approach, be applied to any climate scenario of interest, and provide a framework to assist land and water managers in adapting to

Increasing summer rainfall in arid eastern-Central Asia over the past 8500 years

PubMed Central

Hong, Bing; Gasse, Françoise; Uchida, Masao; Hong, Yetang; Leng, Xuetian; Shibata, Yasuyuki; An, Ning; Zhu, Yongxuan; Wang, Yu

2014-01-01

A detailed and well-dated proxy record of summer rainfall variation in arid Central Asia is lacking. Here, we report a long-term, high resolution record of summer rainfall extracted from a peat bog in arid eastern-Central Asia (AECA). The record indicates a slowly but steadily increasing trend of summer rainfall in the AECA over the past 8500 years. On this long-term trend are superimposed several abrupt increases in rainfall on millennial timescales that correspond to rapid cooling events in the North Atlantic. During the last millennium, the hydrological climate pattern of the AECA underwent a major change. The rainfall in the past century has reached its highest level over the 8500-year history, highlighting the significant impact of the human-induced greenhouse effect on the hydrological climate in the AECA. Our results demonstrate that even in very dry eastern-Central Asia, the climate can become wetter under global warming. PMID:24923304

Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions.

PubMed

Moyes, Andrew B; Germino, Matthew J; Kueppers, Lara M

2015-09-01

Climate change is altering plant species distributions globally, and warming is expected to promote uphill shifts in mountain trees. However, at many cold-edge range limits, such as alpine treelines in the western United States, tree establishment may be colimited by low temperature and low moisture, making recruitment patterns with warming difficult to predict. We measured response functions linking carbon (C) assimilation and temperature- and moisture-related microclimatic factors for limber pine (Pinus flexilis) seedlings growing in a heating × watering experiment within and above the alpine treeline. We then extrapolated these response functions using observed microclimate conditions to estimate the net effects of warming and associated soil drying on C assimilation across an entire growing season. Moisture and temperature limitations were each estimated to reduce potential growing season C gain from a theoretical upper limit by 15-30% (c. 50% combined). Warming above current treeline conditions provided relatively little benefit to modeled net assimilation, whereas assimilation was sensitive to either wetter or drier conditions. Summer precipitation may be at least as important as temperature in constraining C gain by establishing subalpine trees at and above current alpine treelines as seasonally dry subalpine and alpine ecosystems continue to warm. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Excess mortality during the warm summer of 2015 in Switzerland.

PubMed

Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Ragettli, Martina S; Schindler, Christian; Röösli, Martin

2016-01-01

In Switzerland, summer 2015 was the second warmest summer for 150 years (after summer 2003). For summer 2003, a 6.9% excess mortality was estimated for Switzerland, which corresponded to 975 extra deaths. The impact of the heat in summer 2015 in Switzerland has not so far been evaluated. Daily age group-, gender- and region-specific all-cause excess mortality during summer (June-August) 2015 was estimated, based on predictions derived from quasi-Poisson regression models fitted to the daily mortality data for the 10 previous years. Estimates of excess mortality were derived for 1 June to 31 August, at national and regional level, as well as by month and for specific heat episodes identified in summer 2015 by use of seven different definitions. 804 excess deaths (5.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.0‒7.9%) were estimated for summer 2015 compared with previous summers, with the highest percentage obtained for July (11.6%, 95% CI 3.7‒19.4%). Seventy-seven percent of deaths occurred in people aged 75 years and older. Ticino (10.3%, 95% CI -1.8‒22.4%), Northwestern Switzerland (9.5%, 95% CI 2.7‒16.3%) and Espace Mittelland (8.9%, 95% CI 3.7‒14.1%) showed highest excess mortality during this three-month period, whereas fewer deaths than expected (-3.3%, 95% CI -9.2‒2.6%) were observed in Eastern Switzerland, the coldest region. The largest excess estimate of 23.7% was obtained during days when both maximum apparent and minimum night-time temperature reached extreme values (+32 and +20 °C, respectively), with 31.0% extra deaths for periods of three days or more. Heat during summer 2015 was associated with an increase in mortality in the warmer regions of Switzerland and it mainly affected older people. Estimates for 2015 were only a little lower compared to those of summer 2003, indicating that mitigation measures to prevent heat-related mortality in Switzerland have not become noticeably effective in the last 10 years.

Summer syncope syndrome.

PubMed

Huang, Jennifer Juxiang; Sharda, Natasha; Riaz, Irbaz Bin; Alpert, Joseph S

2014-08-01

Antihypertensive therapy is associated with significant relative risk reductions in the incidence of heart failure, myocardial infarction, and stroke. However, a common adverse reaction to antihypertensive therapy is orthostatic hypotension, dehydration, and syncope. We propose that continued use of antihypertensive medications at the same dosage during the dry summer months in patients living in the Sonoran desert leads to an increase in syncopal episodes. All hypertensive patients who were treated with medications and admitted with International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision code diagnosis of syncope were included. They were defined as "cases" if they presented during the summer months (May to September 2012) and "controls" if they presented during the winter months (November 2012 to March 2013). The primary outcome measure was the presence of clinical dehydration. The statistical significance was determined using the 2-sided Fisher exact test. A total of 496 patients with an International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision code diagnosis of syncope were screened, and 179 patients were included in the final analysis. In patients taking antihypertensive medications, there were a significantly higher number of cases of syncope secondary to dehydration or orthostatic hypotension during the summer months (45%) compared with the winter months (26%) (P = .01). The incidence of syncope was significantly higher in older patients (63%) compared with younger individuals (37%) during the summer months. The incidence of syncope increases during the summer months among people who reside in a dry desert climate and who are taking antihypertensive medications. On the basis of our findings, we describe an easily preventable condition that we define as the "Summer Syncope Syndrome." We recommend judicious reduction of antihypertensive therapy in patients residing in a hot and dry climate, particularly during the summer months. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All

Seasonal modulation of the Asian summer monsoon between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: a multi model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamae, Youichi; Kawana, Toshi; Oshiro, Megumi; Ueda, Hiroaki

2017-12-01

Instrumental and proxy records indicate remarkable global climate variability over the last millennium, influenced by solar irradiance, Earth's orbital parameters, volcanic eruptions and human activities. Numerical model simulations and proxy data suggest an enhanced Asian summer monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) compared to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Using multiple climate model simulations, we show that anomalous seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere due to a long cycle of orbital parameters results in a modulation of the Asian summer monsoon transition between the MWP and LIA. Ten climate model simulations prescribing historical radiative forcing that includes orbital parameters consistently reproduce an enhanced MWP Asian monsoon in late summer and a weakened monsoon in early summer. Weakened, then enhanced Northern Hemisphere insolation before and after June leads to a seasonally asymmetric temperature response over the Eurasian continent, resulting in a seasonal reversal of the signs of MWP-LIA anomalies in land-sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation, and rainfall from early to late summer. This seasonal asymmetry in monsoon response is consistently found among the different climate models and is reproduced by an idealized model simulation forced solely by orbital parameters. The results of this study indicate that slow variation in the Earth's orbital parameters contributes to centennial variability in the Asian monsoon transition.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Summer syncope syndrome redux.

PubMed

Huang, Jennifer Juxiang; Desai, Chirag; Singh, Nirmal; Sharda, Natasha; Fernandes, Aaron; Riaz, Irbaz Bin; Alpert, Joseph S

2015-10-01

While antihypertensive therapy is known to reduce the risk for heart failure, myocardial infarction, and stroke, it can often cause orthostatic hypotension and syncope, especially in the setting of polypharmacy and possibly, a hot and dry climate. The objective of the present study was to investigate whether the results of our prior study involving continued use of antihypertensive drugs at the same dosage in the summer as in the winter months for patients living in the Sonoran desert resulted in an increase in syncopal episodes during the hot summer months. All hypertensive patients who were treated with medications and admitted with International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision code diagnosis of syncope were included. This is a 3-year retrospective chart review study. They were defined as "cases" if they presented during the summer months (May to September) and "controls" if they presented during the winter months (November to March). The primary outcome measure was the presence of clinical dehydration. The statistical significance was determined using the 2-sided Fisher's exact test. A total of 834 patients with an International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision code diagnosis of syncope were screened: 477 in the summer months and 357 in the winter months. In patients taking antihypertensive medications, there was a significantly higher number of cases of syncope secondary to dehydration during the summer months (40.5%) compared with the winter months (29%) (P = .04). No difference was observed in the type of antihypertensive medication used and syncope rate. The number of antihypertensives used did not increase the cases of syncope in either summer or winter. An increased number of syncope events was observed in the summer months among people who reside in a dry desert climate and who are taking antihypertensive medications. The data confirm our earlier observations that demonstrated a greater number of cases of syncope among people who reside

Vulnerability of crops and native grasses to summer drying in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

DOE PAGES

Raz-Yaseef, Naama; Billesbach, Dave P.; Fischer, Marc L.; ...

2015-08-31

The Southern Great Plains are characterized by a fine-scale mixture of different land-cover types, predominantly winter-wheat and grazed pasture, with relatively small areas of other crops, native prairie, and switchgrass. Recent droughts and predictions of increased drought in the Southern Great Plains, especially during the summer months, raise concern for these ecosystems. We measured ecosystem carbon and water fluxes with eddy-covariance systems over cultivated cropland for 10 years, and over lightly grazed prairie and new switchgrass fields for 2 years each. Growing-season precipitation showed the strongest control over net carbon uptake for all ecosystems, but with a variable effect: grassesmore » (prairie and switchgrass) needed at least 350 mm of precipitation during the growing season to become net carbon sinks, while crops needed only 100 mm. In summer, high temperatures enhanced evaporation and led to higher likelihood of dry soil conditions. Therefore, summer-growing native prairie species and switchgrass experienced more seasonal droughts than spring-growing crops. For wheat, the net reduction in carbon uptake resulted mostly from a decrease in gross primary production rather than an increase in respiration. Flux measurements suggested that management practices for crops were effective in suppressing evapotranspiration and decomposition (by harvesting and removing secondary growth), and in increasing carbon uptake (by fertilizing and conserving summer soil water). In light of future projections for wetter springs and drier and warmer summers in the Southern Great Plains, our study indicates an increased vulnerability in native ecosystems and summer crops over time.« less

Warm Dry Weather Conditions Cause of 2016 Fort McMurray Wild Forest Fire and Associated Air Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Azevedo, S. C.; Singh, R. P.; da Silva, E. A., Sr.

2016-12-01

The climate change is evident from the increasing temperature around the world, day to day life and increasing frequency of natural hazards. The warm and dry conditions are the cause of frequent forest fires around the globe. Forest fires severely affect the air quality and human health. Multi sensor satellites and dense network of ground stations provide information about vegetation health, meteorological, air quality and atmospheric parameters. We have carried out detailed analysis of satellite and ground data of wild forest fire that occurred in May 2016 in Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada. This wild forest fire destroyed 10 per cent of Fort McMurray's housing and forced more than 90,000 people to evacuate the surrounding areas. Our results show that the warm and dry conditions with low rainfall were the cause of Fort McMurray wild fire. The air quality parameters (particulate matter, CO, ozone, NO2, methane) and greenhouse gases measured from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) satellite show enhanced levels soon after the forest fire. The emissions from the forest fire affected health of population living in surrounding areas up to 300 km radius.

Sustained acceleration of soil carbon decomposition observed in a 6-year warming experiment in a warm-temperate forest in southern Japan.

PubMed

Teramoto, Munemasa; Liang, Naishen; Takagi, Masahiro; Zeng, Jiye; Grace, John

2016-10-17

To examine global warming's effect on soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition in Asian monsoon forests, we conducted a soil warming experiment with a multichannel automated chamber system in a 55-year-old warm-temperate evergreen broadleaved forest in southern Japan. We established three treatments: control chambers for total soil respiration, trenched chambers for heterotrophic respiration (R h ), and warmed trenched chambers to examine warming effect on R h . The soil was warmed with an infrared heater above each chamber to increase soil temperature at 5 cm depth by about 2.5 °C. The warming treatment lasted from January 2009 to the end of 2014. The annual warming effect on R h (an increase per °C) ranged from 7.1 to17.8% °C -1 . Although the warming effect varied among the years, it averaged 9.4% °C -1 over 6 years, which was close to the value of 10.1 to 10.9% °C -1 that we calculated using the annual temperature-efflux response model of Lloyd and Taylor. The interannual warming effect was positively related to the total precipitation in the summer period, indicating that summer precipitation and the resulting soil moisture level also strongly influenced the soil warming effect in this forest.

The McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica: Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems responding to climatic events that enhance hydrologic transport acress the landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKnight, D. M.; Lyons, W. B.; Fountain, A. G.; Gooseff, M. N.; Doran, P. T.; Wall, D. H.; Virginia, R. A.; Priscu, J. C.; Adams, B.; Vesbach-Takacs, C.; Barrett, J. E.; Howkins, A.

2014-12-01

The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica is comprised of alpine and terminal glaciers, large expanses of patterned ground, and permanently ice-covered lakes in the valley floors, which are linked by glacial meltwater streams that flow during the austral summer. These valleys were first explored by Robert Scott and his party in 1903. In 1968 the New Zealand Antarctic Program began a gauging network on the Onyx River, a 32 km river in Wright Valley which is the longest river in Antarctica. As part of the McMurdo Dry Valleys Long-Term Ecological research project our research group has monitored meteorological conditions, glacial mass balance, lake level and streamflow in the adjacent Taylor Valley. The extent of liquid water throughout the landscape is strongly controlled by summer climate, and the availability of liquid water in turn is a limitation to the microscopic life that is present in the diverse habitats in the valleys. We have studied the responses of soil, lake, stream and cryoconite ecosystems through a sustained cooling period that has been driven by atmospheric changes associated with the ozone hole. In the past decade, this cooling period appears to have ceased and summer conditions have become more variable. Three warm sunny summers have occurred since 2001/02. These conditions have created weeks long "flood events" in the valleys, causing wet areas to emerge in the soils, thermokarsting in some stream channels and increases in lake level. These flood events can be considered as pulse events that drive an increase in ecosystem connectivity, changing rates of biogeochemical processes and the distribution of biota. Collectively the ecosystems of the McMurdo Dry Valleys are highly responsive to dynamic climatic influences associated with the ozone hole and global warming.

Projected change in East Asian summer monsoon by dynamic downscaling: Moisture budget analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Chun-Yong; Shin, Ho-Jeong; Jang, Chan Joo; Kim, Hyung-Jin

2015-02-01

The summer monsoon considerably affects water resource and natural hazards including flood and drought in East Asia, one of the world's most densely populated area. In this study, we investigate future changes in summer precipitation over East Asia induced by global warming through dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecast model. We have selected a global model from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 based on an objective evaluation for East Asian summer monsoon and applied its climate change under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario to a pseudo global warming method. Unlike the previous studies that focused on a qualitative description of projected precipitation changes over East Asia, this study tried to identify the physical causes of the precipitation changes by analyzing a local moisture budget. Projected changes in precipitation over the eastern foothills area of Tibetan Plateau including Sichuan Basin and Yangtze River displayed a contrasting pattern: a decrease in its northern area and an increase in its southern area. A local moisture budget analysis indicated the precipitation increase over the southern area can be mainly attributed to an increase in horizontal wind convergence and surface evaporation. On the other hand, the precipitation decrease over the northern area can be largely explained by horizontal advection of dry air from the northern continent and by divergent wind flow. Regional changes in future precipitation in East Asia are likely to be attributed to different mechanisms which can be better resolved by regional dynamical downscaling.

Variability and trends in dry day frequency and dry event length in the southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, Gregory J.; Legates, David R.; Lins, Harry F.

2010-01-01

Daily precipitation from 22 National Weather Service first-order weather stations in the southwestern United States for water years 1951 through 2006 are used to examine variability and trends in the frequency of dry days and dry event length. Dry events with minimum thresholds of 10 and 20 consecutive days of precipitation with less than 2.54 mm are analyzed. For water years and cool seasons (October through March), most sites indicate negative trends in dry event length (i.e., dry event durations are becoming shorter). For the warm season (April through September), most sites also indicate negative trends; however, more sites indicate positive trends in dry event length for the warm season than for water years or cool seasons. The larger number of sites indicating positive trends in dry event length during the warm season is due to a series of dry warm seasons near the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. Overall, a large portion of the variability in dry event length is attributable to variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, especially for water years and cool seasons. Our results are consistent with analyses of trends in discharge for sites in the southwestern United States, an increased frequency in El Niño events, and positive trends in precipitation in the southwestern United States.

Sustained acceleration of soil carbon decomposition observed in a 6-year warming experiment in a warm-temperate forest in southern Japan

PubMed Central

Teramoto, Munemasa; Liang, Naishen; Takagi, Masahiro; Zeng, Jiye; Grace, John

2016-01-01

To examine global warming’s effect on soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition in Asian monsoon forests, we conducted a soil warming experiment with a multichannel automated chamber system in a 55-year-old warm-temperate evergreen broadleaved forest in southern Japan. We established three treatments: control chambers for total soil respiration, trenched chambers for heterotrophic respiration (Rh), and warmed trenched chambers to examine warming effect on Rh. The soil was warmed with an infrared heater above each chamber to increase soil temperature at 5 cm depth by about 2.5 °C. The warming treatment lasted from January 2009 to the end of 2014. The annual warming effect on Rh (an increase per °C) ranged from 7.1 to17.8% °C−1. Although the warming effect varied among the years, it averaged 9.4% °C−1 over 6 years, which was close to the value of 10.1 to 10.9% °C−1 that we calculated using the annual temperature–efflux response model of Lloyd and Taylor. The interannual warming effect was positively related to the total precipitation in the summer period, indicating that summer precipitation and the resulting soil moisture level also strongly influenced the soil warming effect in this forest. PMID:27748424

"Global warming, continental drying? Interpreting projected aridity changes over land under climate change"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, Alexis

2017-04-01

In recent years, a number of studies have suggested that, as climate warms, the land surface will globally become more arid. Such results usually rely on drought or aridity diagnostics, such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index or the Aridity Index (ratio of precipitation over potential evapotranspiration, PET), applied to climate model projections of surface climate. From a global perspective, the projected widespread drying of the land surface is generally interpreted as the result of the dominant, ubiquitous warming-induced PET increase, which overwhelms the slight overall precipitation increase projected over land. However, several lines of evidence, based on (paleo)observations and climate model projections, raise questions regarding this interpretation of terrestrial climate change. In this talk, I will review elements of the literature supporting these different perspectives, and will present recent results based on CMIP5 climate model projections regarding changes in aridity over land that shed some light on this discussion. Central to the interpretation of projected land aridity changes is the understanding of projected PET trends over land and their link with changes in other variables of the terrestrial water cycle (ET, soil moisture) and surface climate in the context of the coupled land-atmosphere system.

Research on trend of warm-humid climate in Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Zhi; Peng, Dailiang; Wen, Jingyi; Cai, Zhanqing; Wang, Tiantian; Hu, Yuekai; Ma, Yaxin; Xu, Junfeng

2017-07-01

Central Asia is a typical arid area, which is sensitive and vulnerable part of climate changes, at the same time, Central Asia is the Silk Road Economic Belt of the core district, the warm-humid climate change will affect the production and economic development of neighboring countries. The average annual precipitation, average anneal temperature and evapotranspiration are the important indexes to weigh the climate change. In this paper, the annual precipitation, annual average temperature and evapotranspiration data of every pixel point in Central Asia are analyzed by using long-time series remote sensing data to analyze the trend of warm and humid conditions. Finally, using the model to analyzed the distribution of warm-dry trend, the warm-wet trend, the cold-dry trend and the cold-wet trend in Central Asia and Xinjiang area. The results showed that most of the regions of Central Asia were warm-humid and warm-dry trends, but only a small number of regions showed warm-dry and cold-dry trends. It is of great significance to study the climatic change discipline and guarantee the ecological safety and improve the ability to cope with climate change in the region. It also provide scientific basis for the formulation of regional climate change program. The first section in your paper

Copepod community succession during warm season in Lagoon Notoro-ko, northeastern Hokkaido, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagawa, Yoshizumi; Ichikawa, Hideaki; Kitamura, Mitsuaki; Nishino, Yasuto; Taniguchi, Akira

2015-06-01

Lagoon Notoro-ko, located on the northeastern coast of Hokkaido, Japan, and connected to the Okhotsk Sea by a human-made channel, is strongly influenced by local hydrography, as water masses in the lagoon are seasonally influenced by the Soya Warm Current and the East Sakhalin Current. We here report on the succession of copepod communities during the warm season in relation to water mass exchange. Copepods were categorized into four seasonal communities (spring/early-summer, mid-summer, late-summer/fall, and early-winter) via a cluster analysis based on Bray-Curtis similarities. Spring/early-summer and early-winter communities were characterized by the temperate-boreal calanoid Pseudocalanus newmani, comprising 34.9%-77.6% of the total abundance of copepods during times of low temperature/salinity, as influenced by the prevailing East Sakhalin Current. Late-summer/fall communities were characterized by the neritic warm-water calanoid Paracalanus parvus s.l., comprising 63.9%-96.3% of the total abundance, as influenced by the Soya Warm Current. Mid-summer communities comprised approximately equal abundances of P. parvus, Eurytemora herdmani, Scolecithricella minor, and Centropages abdominalis (12.8%-28.2%); this community is transitional between those of the spring/early-summer and late-summer/fall. Copepod community succession in Lagoon Notoro-ko can be largely explained by seasonal changes in water masses.

Leaf anatomy, BVOC emission and CO2 exchange of arctic plants following snow addition and summer warming

PubMed Central

Schollert, Michelle; Kivimäenpää, Minna; Michelsen, Anders; Blok, Daan; Rinnan, Riikka

2017-01-01

Background and Aims Climate change in the Arctic is projected to increase temperature, precipitation and snowfall. This may alter leaf anatomy and gas exchange either directly or indirectly. Our aim was to assess whether increased snow depth and warming modify leaf anatomy and affect biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions and CO2 exchange of the widespread arctic shrubs Betula nana and Empetrum nigrum ssp. hermaphroditum. Methods Measurements were conducted in a full-factorial field experiment in Central West Greenland, with passive summer warming by open-top chambers and snow addition using snow fences. Leaf anatomy was assessed using light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. BVOC emissions were measured using a dynamic enclosure system and collection of BVOCs into adsorbent cartridges analysed by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. Carbon dioxide exchange was measured using an infrared gas analyser. Key Results Despite a later snowmelt and reduced photosynthesis for B. nana especially, no apparent delays in the BVOC emissions were observed in response to snow addition. Only a few effects of the treatments were seen for the BVOC emissions, with sesquiterpenes being the most responsive compound group. Snow addition affected leaf anatomy by increasing the glandular trichome density in B. nana and modifying the mesophyll of E. hermaphroditum. The open-top chambers thickened the epidermis of B. nana, while increasing the glandular trichome density and reducing the palisade:spongy mesophyll ratio in E. hermaphroditum. Conclusions Leaf anatomy was modified by both treatments already after the first winter and we suggest links between leaf anatomy, CO2 exchange and BVOC emissions. While warming is likely to reduce soil moisture, melt water from a deeper snow pack alleviates water stress in the early growing season. The study emphasizes the ecological importance of changes in winter precipitation in the Arctic, which can interact with climate-warming

Why tropical forest lizards are vulnerable to climate warming.

PubMed

Huey, Raymond B; Deutsch, Curtis A; Tewksbury, Joshua J; Vitt, Laurie J; Hertz, Paul E; Alvarez Pérez, Héctor J; Garland, Theodore

2009-06-07

Biological impacts of climate warming are predicted to increase with latitude, paralleling increases in warming. However, the magnitude of impacts depends not only on the degree of warming but also on the number of species at risk, their physiological sensitivity to warming and their options for behavioural and physiological compensation. Lizards are useful for evaluating risks of warming because their thermal biology is well studied. We conducted macrophysiological analyses of diurnal lizards from diverse latitudes plus focal species analyses of Puerto Rican Anolis and Sphaerodactyus. Although tropical lowland lizards live in environments that are warm all year, macrophysiological analyses indicate that some tropical lineages (thermoconformers that live in forests) are active at low body temperature and are intolerant of warm temperatures. Focal species analyses show that some tropical forest lizards were already experiencing stressful body temperatures in summer when studied several decades ago. Simulations suggest that warming will not only further depress their physiological performance in summer, but will also enable warm-adapted, open-habitat competitors and predators to invade forests. Forest lizards are key components of tropical ecosystems, but appear vulnerable to the cascading physiological and ecological effects of climate warming, even though rates of tropical warming may be relatively low.

Why tropical forest lizards are vulnerable to climate warming

PubMed Central

Huey, Raymond B.; Deutsch, Curtis A.; Tewksbury, Joshua J.; Vitt, Laurie J.; Hertz, Paul E.; Álvarez Pérez, Héctor J.; Garland, Theodore

2009-01-01

Biological impacts of climate warming are predicted to increase with latitude, paralleling increases in warming. However, the magnitude of impacts depends not only on the degree of warming but also on the number of species at risk, their physiological sensitivity to warming and their options for behavioural and physiological compensation. Lizards are useful for evaluating risks of warming because their thermal biology is well studied. We conducted macrophysiological analyses of diurnal lizards from diverse latitudes plus focal species analyses of Puerto Rican Anolis and Sphaerodactyus. Although tropical lowland lizards live in environments that are warm all year, macrophysiological analyses indicate that some tropical lineages (thermoconformers that live in forests) are active at low body temperature and are intolerant of warm temperatures. Focal species analyses show that some tropical forest lizards were already experiencing stressful body temperatures in summer when studied several decades ago. Simulations suggest that warming will not only further depress their physiological performance in summer, but will also enable warm-adapted, open-habitat competitors and predators to invade forests. Forest lizards are key components of tropical ecosystems, but appear vulnerable to the cascading physiological and ecological effects of climate warming, even though rates of tropical warming may be relatively low. PMID:19324762

Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle

2015-03-31

California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼ 100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm-dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the "exceptional" 2012-2014 drought in California.

The warming effect of the flare of natural gas on soil biological activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yevdokimov, Ilya; Yusupov, Irek; Shavnin, Sergey

2017-04-01

Simulation of global warming is one of the key issues of international efforts to study climatic changes. A number of manipulation experiments with soil warming have been established throughout the world in the last decades. We used warming with natural gas flare near the pine forest as a kind of manipulation experiment to assess the synergistic effect of drying and warming on plant-soil-microbial interactions. The experimental area is situated in a pine forest subzone of the forest zone of the Western Siberia near Pokachi, Yugra (61o73'N, 75o49'E). The experimental plots were established in a young Scotch pine forest on sandy podzolic soil at three distances of 70, 90 and 130 m from the flare of natural gas, with trees exposed to strong (S) moderate (M), and weak (W) impact, respectively. Increase of soil temperature in summer time were moderate: on average 0.7oC and 1.3oC for the plots M and S, respectively, compared to the plot W. The plot S demonstrated increase in CO2 efflux from the soil surface, mainly due to intensifying plant root respiration, by 18% compared to the plot W as well as increase in SOM content by 31%, with intensive accumulation of recalcitrant humus. By contrast, microbial biomass, labile SOM pool and basal respiration were higher in soil with weak flaring impact by 74%, 33% and 24%, respectively. Thus, three trends in plant-soil-microbe system exposed to warming and drying were revealed: i) SOM accumulation, ii) suppression of microbial activity, and iii) stimulation of root respiration. The research was supported by the Russian Science Foundation and Russian Foundation for Basic Researches.

Air drying of softwood lumber, Fairbanks, Alaska.

Treesearch

George R Sampson; Forrest A. Ruppert

1985-01-01

Air-drying rates for two stacks of 2-inch-thick white spruce were observed in the Fairbanks area during summer 1982. The air-drying rate for the same size lumber was also observed during winter 1982-83. Very little drying occurred during the winter. Drying rates in summer were correlated with average daily temperature and average daily dew point to derive predictive...

Physical Mechanisms of Rapid Lake Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenters, J. D.

2016-12-01

Recent studies have shown significant warming of inland water bodies around the world. Many lakes are warming more rapidly than the ambient surface air temperature, and this is counter to what is often expected based on the lake surface energy balance. A host of reasons have been proposed to explain these discrepancies, including changes in the onset of summer stratification, significant loss of ice cover, and concomitant changes in winter air temperature and/or summer cloud cover. A review of the literature suggests that no single physical mechanism is primarily responsible for the majority of these changes, but rather that the large heterogeneity in regional climate trends and lake geomorphometry results in a host of potential physical drivers. In this study, we discuss the variety of mechanisms that have been proposed to explain rapid lake warming and offer an assessment of the physical plausibility for each potential contributor. Lake Superior is presented as a case study to illustrate the "perfect storm" of factors that can cause a deep, dimictic lake to warm at rate that exceeds the rate of global air temperature warming by nearly an order of magnitude. In particular, we use a simple mixed-layer model to show that spatially variable trends in Lake Superior surface water temperature are determined, to first order, by variations in bathymetry and winter air temperature. Summer atmospheric conditions are often of less significance, and winter ice cover may simply be a correlate. The results highlight the importance of considering the full range of factors that can lead to trends in lake surface temperature, and that conventional wisdom may often not be the best guide.

Sensitivity of summer climate to anthropogenic land-cover change over the Greater Phoenix, AZ, region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Georgescu, M.; Miguez-Macho, G.; Steyaert, L.T.; Weaver, C.P.

2008-01-01

This work evaluates the first-order effect of land-use/land-cover change (LULCC) on the summer climate of one of the nation's most rapidly expanding metropolitan complexes, the Greater Phoenix, AZ, region. High-resolution-2-km grid spacing-Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) simulations of three "wet" and three "dry" summers were carried out for two different land-cover reconstructions for the region: a circa 1992 representation based on satellite observations, and a hypothetical land-cover scenario where the anthropogenic landscape of irrigated agriculture and urban pixels was replaced with current semi-natural vegetation. Model output is evaluated with respect to observed air temperature, dew point, and precipitation. Our results suggest that development of extensive irrigated agriculture adjacent to the urban area has dampened any regional-mean warming due to urbanization. Consistent with previous observationally based work, LULCC produces a systematic increase in precipitation to the north and east of the city, though only under dry conditions. This is due to a change in background atmospheric stability resulting from the advection of both warmth from the urban core and moisture from the irrigated area. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Aggregate of Four Anthrax Cases during the Dry Summer of 2011 in Epirus, Greece.

PubMed

Gaitanis, Georgios; Lolis, Christos J; Tsartsarakis, Antonios; Kalogeropoulos, Chris; Leveidiotou-Stefanou, Stamatina; Bartzokas, Aristidis; Bassukas, Ioannis D

2016-01-01

Human anthrax is currently a sporadic disease in Europe, without significant regional clustering. To report an unexpected aggregate of anthrax cases and correlate local climatic factors with yearly anthrax admissions. Clinical description of a geographical-temporal anthrax aggregate, correlation of disease admissions with local weather data in the period 2001-2014 and literature reports of anthrax clusters from Europe in the last 20 years. We identified 5 cases, all cutaneous: an unexpected aggregate of 4 cases in mid-summer 2011 (including a probable human-to-human transmission) and a sporadic case in August 2005, all in relatively dry periods (p < 0.05). Remarkably, 3/6 reports of human anthrax aggregates from Europe were observed in Balkan Peninsula countries in the year 2011. In the light of the predicted climatic change, unexpected anthrax aggregates during dry periods in southern Europe underscore the risk of future anthrax re-emergence on this continent. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Biomass production in experimental grasslands of different species richness during three years of climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boeck, H. J.; Lemmens, C. M. H. M.; Gielen, B.; Malchair, S.; Carnol, M.; Merckx, R.; van den Berge, J.; Ceulemans, R.; Nijs, I.

2007-12-01

Here we report on the single and combined impacts of climate warming and species richness on the biomass production in experimental grassland communities. Projections of a future warmer climate have stimulated studies on the response of terrestrial ecosystems to this global change. Experiments have likewise addressed the importance of species numbers for ecosystem functioning. There is, however, little knowledge on the interplay between warming and species richness. During three years, we grew experimental plant communities containing one, three or nine grassland species in 12 sunlit, climate-controlled chambers in Wilrijk, Belgium. Half of these chambers were exposed to ambient air temperatures (unheated), while the other half were warmed by 3°C (heated). Equal amounts of water were added to heated and unheated communities, so that warming would imply drier soils if evapotranspiration was higher. Biomass production was decreased due to warming, both aboveground (-29%) and belowground (-25%), as negative impacts of increased heat and drought stress in summer prevailed. Increased resource partitioning, likely mostly through spatial complementarity, led to higher shoot and root biomass in multi-species communities, regardless of the induced warming. Surprisingly, warming suppressed productivity the most in 9-species communities, which may be attributed to negative impacts of intense interspecific competition for resources under conditions of high abiotic stress. Our results suggest that warming and the associated soil drying could reduce primary production in many temperate grasslands, and that this will not necessarily be mitigated by efforts to maintain or increase species richness.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

PubMed

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-07

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

PubMed

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-20

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

PubMed Central

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-01-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming. PMID:28317914

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle

2015-01-01

California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm–dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the “exceptional” 2012–2014 drought in California. PMID:25733875

Changes in South Pacific rainfall bands in a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widlansky, M. J.; Timmermann, A.; Stein, K.; McGregor, S.; Schneider, N.; England, M. H.; Lengaigne, M.; Cai, W.

2012-12-01

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest rainband in the Southern Hemisphere and provides most of the rainfall to Southwest Pacific island nations. In spite of various modeling efforts, it remains uncertain how the SPCZ will respond to greenhouse warming. A multi-model ensemble average of 21st century climate change projections from the current-generation of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) suggests a slightly wetter Southwest Pacific; however, inter-model uncertainty is greater than projected rainfall changes in the SPCZ region. Using a hierarchy of climate models we show that the uncertainty of SPCZ rainfall projections in the Southwest Pacific can be explained as a result of two competing mechanisms. Higher tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) lead to an overall increase of atmospheric moisture and rainfall while weaker SST gradients dynamically shift the SPCZ northeastward (see illustration) and promote summer drying in areas of the Southwest Pacific, similar to the response to strong El Niño events. Based on a multi-model ensemble of 55 greenhouse warming experiments and for moderate tropical warming of 2-3°C we estimate a 5% decrease of SPCZ rainfall, although uncertainty exceeds ±30% among CGCMs. For stronger tropical warming, a tendency for a wetter SPCZ region is identified.; Illustration of the "warmest gets wetter" response to projected 21st century greenhouse warming. Green shading depicts observed (1982-2009) rainfall during DJF (contour interval: 2 mm/day; starting at 1 mm/day). Blue (red) contours depict warming less (more) than the tropical mean (42.5°N/S) 21st century multi-model trend (contour interval: 0.2°C; starting at ±0.1°C).

Leaf anatomy, BVOC emission and CO2 exchange of arctic plants following snow addition and summer warming.

PubMed

Schollert, Michelle; Kivimäenpää, Minna; Michelsen, Anders; Blok, Daan; Rinnan, Riikka

2017-02-01

Climate change in the Arctic is projected to increase temperature, precipitation and snowfall. This may alter leaf anatomy and gas exchange either directly or indirectly. Our aim was to assess whether increased snow depth and warming modify leaf anatomy and affect biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions and CO 2 exchange of the widespread arctic shrubs Betula nana and Empetrum nigrum ssp. hermaphroditum METHODS: Measurements were conducted in a full-factorial field experiment in Central West Greenland, with passive summer warming by open-top chambers and snow addition using snow fences. Leaf anatomy was assessed using light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. BVOC emissions were measured using a dynamic enclosure system and collection of BVOCs into adsorbent cartridges analysed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Carbon dioxide exchange was measured using an infrared gas analyser. Despite a later snowmelt and reduced photosynthesis for B. nana especially, no apparent delays in the BVOC emissions were observed in response to snow addition. Only a few effects of the treatments were seen for the BVOC emissions, with sesquiterpenes being the most responsive compound group. Snow addition affected leaf anatomy by increasing the glandular trichome density in B. nana and modifying the mesophyll of E. hermaphroditum The open-top chambers thickened the epidermis of B. nana, while increasing the glandular trichome density and reducing the palisade:spongy mesophyll ratio in E. hermaphroditum CONCLUSIONS: Leaf anatomy was modified by both treatments already after the first winter and we suggest links between leaf anatomy, CO 2 exchange and BVOC emissions. While warming is likely to reduce soil moisture, melt water from a deeper snow pack alleviates water stress in the early growing season. The study emphasizes the ecological importance of changes in winter precipitation in the Arctic, which can interact with climate-warming effects. © The Author 2017

Regional tree growth and inferred summer climate in the Winnipeg River basin, Canada, since AD 1783

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

St. George, Scott; Meko, David M.; Evans, Michael N.

2008-09-01

A network of 54 ring-width chronologies is used to estimate changes in summer climate within the Winnipeg River basin, Canada, since AD 1783. The basin drains parts of northwestern Ontario, northern Minnesota and southeastern Manitoba, and is a key area for hydroelectric power production. Most chronologies were developed from Pinus resinosa and P. strobus, with a limited number of Thuja occidentalis, Picea glauca and Pinus banksiana. The dominant pattern of regional tree growth can be recovered using only the nine longest chronologies, and is not affected by the method used to remove variability related to age or stand dynamics from individual trees. Tree growth is significantly, but weakly, correlated with both temperature (negatively) and precipitation (positively) during summer. Simulated ring-width chronologies produced by a process model of tree-ring growth exhibit similar relationships with summer climate. High and low growth across the region is associated with cool/wet and warm/dry summers, respectively; this relationship is supported by comparisons with archival records from early 19th century fur-trading posts. The tree-ring record indicates that summer droughts were more persistent in the 19th and late 18th century, but there is no evidence that drought was more extreme prior to the onset of direct monitoring.

Global Warming Threatens National Interests in the Arctic

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-26

Global warming has impacted the Arctic Ocean by significantly reducing the extent of the summer ice cover allowing greater access to the region...increased operations in the Arctic region, and DoD must continue to research and develop new and alternate energy sources for its forces. Global warming is

Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae in subarctic bogs are more sensitive to soil warming in the growing season than in winter: the results of eight-year field climate manipulations.

PubMed

Tsyganov, Andrey N; Aerts, Rien; Nijs, Ivan; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Beyens, Louis

2012-05-01

Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae are widely used in paleoclimate reconstructions as a proxy for climate-induced changes in bogs. However, the sensitivity of proxies to seasonal climate components is an important issue when interpreting proxy records. Here, we studied the effects of summer warming, winter snow addition solely and winter snow addition together with spring warming on testate amoeba assemblages after eight years of experimental field climate manipulations. All manipulations were accomplished using open top chambers in a dry blanket bog located in the sub-Arctic (Abisko, Sweden). We estimated sensitivity of abundance, diversity and assemblage structure of living and empty shell assemblages of testate amoebae in the living and decaying layers of Sphagnum. Our results show that, in a sub-arctic climate, testate amoebae are more sensitive to climate changes in the growing season than in winter. Summer warming reduced species richness and shifted assemblage composition towards predominance of xerophilous species for the living and empty shell assemblages in both layers. The higher soil temperatures during the growing season also decreased abundance of empty shells in both layers hinting at a possible increase in their decomposition rates. Thus, although possible effects of climate changes on preservation of empty shells should always be taken into account, species diversity and structure of testate amoeba assemblages in dry subarctic bogs are sensitive proxies for climatic changes during the growing season. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Spring Hydrology Determines Summer Net Carbon Uptake in Northern Ecosystems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yi, Yonghong; Kimball, John; Reichle, Rolf H.

2014-01-01

Increased photosynthetic activity and enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange of northern ecosystems have been observed from a variety of sources including satellite vegetation indices (such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) and atmospheric CO2 measurements. Most of these changes have been attributed to strong warming trends in the northern high latitudes (greater than or equal to 50N). Here we analyze the interannual variation of summer net carbon uptake derived from atmospheric CO2 measurements and satellite NDVI in relation to surface meteorology from regional observational records. We find that increases in spring precipitation and snow pack promote summer net carbon uptake of northern ecosystems independent of air temperature effects. However, satellite NDVI measurements still show an overall benefit of summer photosynthetic activity from regional warming and limited impact of spring precipitation. This discrepancy is attributed to a similar response of photosynthesis and respiration to warming and thus reduced sensitivity of net ecosystem carbon uptake to temperature. Further analysis of boreal tower eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements indicates that summer net carbon uptake is positively correlated with early growing-season surface soil moisture, which is also strongly affected by spring precipitation and snow pack based on analysis of satellite soil moisture retrievals. This is attributed to strong regulation of spring hydrology on soil respiration in relatively wet boreal and arctic ecosystems. These results document the important role of spring hydrology in determining summer net carbon uptake and contrast with prevailing assumptions of dominant cold temperature limitations to high-latitude ecosystems. Our results indicate potentially stronger coupling of boreal/arctic water and carbon cycles with continued regional warming trends.

The Frustrating Lives of Climate Scientists - 45 Years of Warm, Cold, Wet and Dry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toon, O. B.; Hartwick, V.; Urata, R. A.

2016-12-01

Mariner 9 arrived at Mars in November 1971, where it revealed giant volcanoes and dry river valleys some of which originated from rainfall or runoff. Some geologists think there were oceans, tidal waves, craters that filled to their rims and then overflowed or didn't overflow, and river deltas reaching into the ancient seas and lakes. Climate scientists have stumbled through a 45 year-long chain of failed explanations for these geologic data. CO2 in greater abundance than now is likely involved, but not sufficient. Adding CH4 , CO2 clouds, or SO2 have faltered on further study. Three ideas are still being kicked around, two of which are able to make Mars warm, but may have geologic issues. First, is the idea of adding H2 to the CO2, which warms sufficiently in climate models. However, the large quantities needed are a challenge to outgassing models. Second, is impacts, the largest of which would mobilize most of the water in the regolith. Geologists object that the water from impacts would not last long enough to carve rivers. However, no one has explored the concurrent generation of the regolith by these impacts, which would create a loose, easily erodible surface. Are the rivers all in ancient regolith? If some rivers are in bedrock it would be harder to explain by impacts. Finally, impacts may triggered water/cloud greenhouses. Such a climate state would be long lasting, requires only a modest background atmosphere of carbon dioxide, and would fade away when the carbon dioxide dropped below a few hundred mbar. However, not all climate models have been able to produce such water driven greenhouse warming. In this talk I will outline the history of these climate models, point to evidence that might discriminate between them, describe how the water greenhouse models work or don't work, and suggest some new projects that might be done to decide just how warm and wet Mars may have been.

Antifreeze protein-induced superheating of ice inside Antarctic notothenioid fishes inhibits melting during summer warming

PubMed Central

Cziko, Paul A.; DeVries, Arthur L.; Evans, Clive W.; Cheng, Chi-Hing Christina

2014-01-01

Antifreeze proteins (AFPs) of polar marine teleost fishes are widely recognized as an evolutionary innovation of vast adaptive value in that, by adsorbing to and inhibiting the growth of internalized environmental ice crystals, they prevent death by inoculative freezing. Paradoxically, systemic accumulation of AFP-stabilized ice could also be lethal. Whether or how fishes eliminate internal ice is unknown. To investigate if ice inside high-latitude Antarctic notothenioid fishes could melt seasonally, we measured its melting point and obtained a decadal temperature record from a shallow benthic fish habitat in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. We found that AFP-stabilized ice resists melting at temperatures above the expected equilibrium freezing/melting point (eqFMP), both in vitro and in vivo. Superheated ice was directly observed in notothenioid serum samples and in solutions of purified AFPs, and ice was found to persist inside live fishes at temperatures more than 1 °C above their eqFMP for at least 24 h, and at a lower temperature for at least several days. Field experiments confirmed that superheated ice occurs naturally inside wild fishes. Over the long-term record (1999–2012), seawater temperature surpassed the fish eqFMP in most summers, but never exceeded the highest temperature at which ice persisted inside experimental fishes. Thus, because of the effects of AFP-induced melting inhibition, summer warming may not reliably eliminate internal ice. Our results expose a potentially antagonistic pleiotropic effect of AFPs: beneficial freezing avoidance is accompanied by melting inhibition that may contribute to lifelong accumulation of detrimental internal ice crystals. PMID:25246548

Antifreeze protein-induced superheating of ice inside Antarctic notothenioid fishes inhibits melting during summer warming.

PubMed

Cziko, Paul A; DeVries, Arthur L; Evans, Clive W; Cheng, Chi-Hing Christina

2014-10-07

Antifreeze proteins (AFPs) of polar marine teleost fishes are widely recognized as an evolutionary innovation of vast adaptive value in that, by adsorbing to and inhibiting the growth of internalized environmental ice crystals, they prevent death by inoculative freezing. Paradoxically, systemic accumulation of AFP-stabilized ice could also be lethal. Whether or how fishes eliminate internal ice is unknown. To investigate if ice inside high-latitude Antarctic notothenioid fishes could melt seasonally, we measured its melting point and obtained a decadal temperature record from a shallow benthic fish habitat in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. We found that AFP-stabilized ice resists melting at temperatures above the expected equilibrium freezing/melting point (eqFMP), both in vitro and in vivo. Superheated ice was directly observed in notothenioid serum samples and in solutions of purified AFPs, and ice was found to persist inside live fishes at temperatures more than 1 °C above their eqFMP for at least 24 h, and at a lower temperature for at least several days. Field experiments confirmed that superheated ice occurs naturally inside wild fishes. Over the long-term record (1999-2012), seawater temperature surpassed the fish eqFMP in most summers, but never exceeded the highest temperature at which ice persisted inside experimental fishes. Thus, because of the effects of AFP-induced melting inhibition, summer warming may not reliably eliminate internal ice. Our results expose a potentially antagonistic pleiotropic effect of AFPs: beneficial freezing avoidance is accompanied by melting inhibition that may contribute to lifelong accumulation of detrimental internal ice crystals.

Deciphering the desiccation trend of the South Asian monsoon hydroclimate in a warming world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnan, R.; Sabin, T. P.; Vellore, R.; Mujumdar, M.; Sanjay, J.; Goswami, B. N.; Hourdin, F.; Dufresne, J.-L.; Terray, P.

2016-08-01

Rising propensity of precipitation extremes and concomitant decline of summer-monsoon rains are amongst the most distinctive hydroclimatic signals that have emerged over South Asia since 1950s. A clear understanding of the underlying causes driving these monsoon hydroclimatic signals has remained elusive. Using a state-of-the-art global climate model with high-resolution zooming over South Asia, we demonstrate that a juxtaposition of regional land-use changes, anthropogenic-aerosol forcing and the rapid warming signal of the equatorial Indian Ocean is crucial to produce the observed monsoon weakening in recent decades. Our findings also show that this monsoonal weakening significantly enhances occurrence of localized intense precipitation events, as compared to the global-warming response. A 21st century climate projection using the same high-resolution model indicates persistent decrease of monsoonal rains and prolongation of soil drying. Critical value-additions from this study include (1) realistic simulation of the mean and long-term historical trends in the Indian monsoon rainfall (2) robust attributions of changes in moderate and heavy precipitation events over Central India (3) a 21st century projection of drying trend of the South Asian monsoon. The present findings have profound bearing on the regional water-security, which is already under severe hydrological-stress.

Potential impact of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on consecutive dry and wet days over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ama Browne Klutse, Nana; Ajayi, Vincent O.; Olabode Gbobaniyi, Emiola; Egbebiyi, Temitope S.; Kouadio, Kouakou; Nkrumah, Francis; Akumenyi Quagraine, Kwesi; Olusegun, Christiana; Diasso, Ulrich; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Lawal, Kamoru; Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Christopher; Dosio, Alessandro

2018-05-01

We examine the impact of +1.5 °C and +2 °C global warming levels above pre-industrial levels on consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD), two key indicators for extreme precipitation and seasonal drought. This is done using climate projections from a multi-model ensemble of 25 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The RCMs take boundary conditions from ten global climate models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 scenario. We define CDD as the maximum number of consecutive days with rainfall amount less than 1 mm and CWD as the maximum number of consecutive days with rainfall amount more than 1 mm. The differences in model representations of the change in CDD and CWD, at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming, and based on the control period 1971‑2000 are reported. The models agree on a noticeable response to both 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming for each index. Enhanced warming results in a reduction in mean rainfall across the region. More than 80% of ensemble members agree that CDD will increase over the Guinea Coast, in tandem with a projected decrease in CWD at both 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. These projected changes may influence already fragile ecosystems and agriculture in the region, both of which are strongly affected by mean rainfall and the length of wet and dry periods.

Biomass production in experimental grasslands of different species richness during three years of climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boeck, H. J.; Lemmens, C. M. H. M.; Zavalloni, C.; Gielen, B.; Malchair, S.; Carnol, M.; Merckx, R.; van den Berge, J.; Ceulemans, R.; Nijs, I.

2008-04-01

Here we report on the single and combined impacts of climate warming and species richness on the biomass production in experimental grassland communities. Projections of a future warmer climate have stimulated studies on the response of terrestrial ecosystems to this global change. Experiments have likewise addressed the importance of species numbers for ecosystem functioning. There is, however, little knowledge on the interplay between warming and species richness. During three years, we grew experimental plant communities containing one, three or nine grassland species in 12 sunlit, climate-controlled chambers in Wilrijk, Belgium. Half of these chambers were exposed to ambient air temperatures (unheated), while the other half were warmed by 3°C (heated). Equal amounts of water were added to heated and unheated communities, so that warming would imply drier soils if evapotranspiration was higher. Biomass production was decreased due to warming, both aboveground (-29%) and belowground (-25%), as negative impacts of increased heat and drought stress in summer prevailed. Complementarity effects, likely mostly through both increased aboveground spatial complementarity and facilitative effects of legumes, led to higher shoot and root biomass in multi-species communities, regardless of the induced warming. Surprisingly, warming suppressed productivity the most in 9-species communities, which may be attributed to negative impacts of intense interspecific competition for resources under conditions of high abiotic stress. Our results suggest that warming and the associated soil drying could reduce primary production in many temperate grasslands, and that this will not necessarily be mitigated by efforts to maintain or increase species richness.

Warm Rivers Play Role in Arctic Sea Ice Melt Animation

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-03-05

This frame from a NASA MODIS animation depicts warming sea surface temperatures in the Arctic Beaufort Sea after warm waters from Canada Mackenzie River broke through a shoreline sea ice barrier in summer 2012, enhancing the melting of sea ice.

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, USA.

PubMed

Lyons, J; Stewart, J S; Mitro, M

2010-11-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0-93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

An Overt Chemical Protective Garment Reduces Thermal Strain Compared with a Covert Garment in Warm-Wet but Not Hot-Dry Environments

PubMed Central

Maley, Matthew J.; Costello, Joseph T.; Borg, David N.; Bach, Aaron J. E.; Hunt, Andrew P.; Stewart, Ian B.

2017-01-01

Objectives: A commercial chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) protective covert garment has recently been developed with the aim of reducing thermal strain. A covert CBRN protective layer can be worn under other clothing, with equipment added for full chemical protection when needed. However, it is unknown whether the covert garment offers any alleviation to thermal strain during work compared with a traditional overt ensemble. Therefore, the aim of this study was to compare thermal strain and work tolerance times during work in an overt and covert ensemble offering the same level of CBRN protection. Methods: Eleven male participants wore an overt (OVERT) or covert (COVERT) CBRN ensemble and walked (4 km·h−1, 1% grade) for a maximum of 120 min in either a wet bulb globe temperature [WBGT] of 21, 30, or 37°C (Neutral, WarmWet and HotDry, respectively). The trials were ceased if the participants' gastrointestinal temperature reached 39°C, heart rate reached 90% of maximum, walking time reached 120 min or due to self-termination. Results: All participants completed 120 min of walking in Neutral. Work tolerance time was greater in OVERT compared with COVERT in WarmWet (P < 0.001, 116.5[9.9] vs. 88.9[12.2] min, respectively), though this order was reversed in HotDry (P = 0.003, 37.3[5.3] vs. 48.4[4.6] min, respectively). The rate of change in mean body temperature and mean skin temperature was greater in COVERT (0.025[0.004] and 0.045[0.010]°C·min−1, respectively) compared with OVERT (0.014[0.004] and 0.027[0.007]°C·min−1, respectively) in WarmWet (P < 0.001 and P = 0.028, respectively). However, the rate of change in mean body temperature and mean skin temperature was greater in OVERT (0.068[0.010] and 0.170[0.026]°C·min−1, respectively) compared with COVERT (0.059[0.004] and 0.120[0.017]°C·min−1, respectively) in HotDry (P = 0.002 and P < 0.001, respectively). Thermal sensation, thermal comfort, and ratings of perceived exertion

An Overt Chemical Protective Garment Reduces Thermal Strain Compared with a Covert Garment in Warm-Wet but Not Hot-Dry Environments.

PubMed

Maley, Matthew J; Costello, Joseph T; Borg, David N; Bach, Aaron J E; Hunt, Andrew P; Stewart, Ian B

2017-01-01

Objectives: A commercial chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) protective covert garment has recently been developed with the aim of reducing thermal strain. A covert CBRN protective layer can be worn under other clothing, with equipment added for full chemical protection when needed. However, it is unknown whether the covert garment offers any alleviation to thermal strain during work compared with a traditional overt ensemble. Therefore, the aim of this study was to compare thermal strain and work tolerance times during work in an overt and covert ensemble offering the same level of CBRN protection. Methods : Eleven male participants wore an overt (OVERT) or covert (COVERT) CBRN ensemble and walked (4 km·h -1 , 1% grade) for a maximum of 120 min in either a wet bulb globe temperature [WBGT] of 21, 30, or 37°C (Neutral, WarmWet and HotDry, respectively). The trials were ceased if the participants' gastrointestinal temperature reached 39°C, heart rate reached 90% of maximum, walking time reached 120 min or due to self-termination. Results: All participants completed 120 min of walking in Neutral. Work tolerance time was greater in OVERT compared with COVERT in WarmWet ( P < 0.001, 116.5[9.9] vs. 88.9[12.2] min, respectively), though this order was reversed in HotDry ( P = 0.003, 37.3[5.3] vs. 48.4[4.6] min, respectively). The rate of change in mean body temperature and mean skin temperature was greater in COVERT (0.025[0.004] and 0.045[0.010]°C·min -1 , respectively) compared with OVERT (0.014[0.004] and 0.027[0.007]°C·min -1 , respectively) in WarmWet ( P < 0.001 and P = 0.028, respectively). However, the rate of change in mean body temperature and mean skin temperature was greater in OVERT (0.068[0.010] and 0.170[0.026]°C·min -1 , respectively) compared with COVERT (0.059[0.004] and 0.120[0.017]°C·min -1 , respectively) in HotDry ( P = 0.002 and P < 0.001, respectively). Thermal sensation, thermal comfort, and ratings of perceived

The response of relative humidity to centennial-scale warming over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau inferred from tree-ring width chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Chunming; Daux, Valérie; Li, Zongshan; Wu, Xiuchen; Fan, Tianyi; Ma, Qian; Wu, Xiaoxu; Tian, Huaiyu; Carré, Matthieu; Ji, Duoying; Wang, Wenli; Rinke, Annette; Gong, Wei; Liu, Yan; Chen, Yating; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie

2018-02-01

Understanding the past variability in atmospheric moisture associated with global warming is essential for reducing the uncertainties in climate projections. Such understanding is especially necessary in the Asian monsoon region in the context of increasing anthropogenic forcing. Here, we average four tree-ring width chronologies from the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) over their common intervals and reconstruct the variability in regional relative humidity (RH) from the previous May to the current March over 1751-2005. In contrast to the summer drying associated with centennial-scale warming and the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon, our RH reconstruction shows no significant centennial trend from the 1820s through the 2000s. This absence of a consistent signal is due to the combined effects of contrasting moisture trends during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal seasons, which are controlled by summer monsoon precipitation and local convective precipitation, respectively. The interannual and decadal variability of our RH reconstruction is modulated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); however, these links are unstable over time. Two rapid increases in moisture are found to have occurred around the 1820s and 1980s; the latter increase caused the variability in RH during the 1980s-2000s to be the largest over the entire reconstruction period.

Possible connection between the East Asian summer monsoon and a swing of the haze-fog-prone area in eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qian; Cao, Ziqi; Sheng, Lifang; Diao, Yina; Wang, Wencai; Zhou, Yang; Qiu, Jingyi

2018-05-01

The summer monsoon has recently been hypothesized to influence haze-fog events over China, but the detailed processes involved have yet to be determined. In the present study, we found that the haze-fog-prone area swings over eastern China during boreal summer (May to September), coinciding with the movement of the subtropical monsoon convergence belt (hereinafter referred to simply as the "convergence belt"). Further investigation showed that the convergence belt modulates the spatial distribution of the haze-fog-prone area by altering the regional atmospheric conditions. When the warm and wet summer monsoon air mass pushes northwards and meets with cold air, a frontal zone (namely, the convergence belt) forms. The ascent of warm and wet air along the front strengthens the atmospheric stability ahead of the frontal zone, while the descent of cold and dry air weakens the vertical diffusion at the same place. These processes result in an asymmetric distribution of haze-fog along the convergence belt. Based on the criterion of absolute stability and downdraft, these atmospheric conditions favorable for haze-fog are able to identify 57-79% of haze-fog-prone stations, and the anticipation accuracy is 61-71%. After considering the influence of air pollutants on haze-fog occurrence, the anticipation accuracy rises to 78-79%. Our study reveals a connection between local haze-fog weather phenomena and regional atmospheric conditions and large-scale circulation, and demonstrates one possible mechanism for how the summer monsoon influences the distribution of haze-fog in eastern China.

European summer heatwaves and North Atlantic weather regimes in the last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez Castro, Maria del Carmen; Trasancos, Romain; Yiou, Pascal

2015-04-01

The European summer heatwaves have been increasing in frequency and magnitude in the past decades. A higher confidence in future changes in such extremes necessitates to have a better knowledge about extremes behavior in the past climate. The last millennium is well documented in terms of climate forcings. Modelling efforts have provided a wealth of climate simulations covering the last millennium. We want to exploit such data in order to assess how models simulate extreme summer heatwaves. The surface temperature and precipitation are closely related to atmospheric patterns. It has been shown that rainy winter/spring seasons reduce the frequency of hot summer days whereas dry seasons can be followed by summers with high or low frequency of hot days. In this poster, we show the relation between winter/spring precipitation with the frequency of hot days in the 10 hottest summers in Europe and Southern Europe during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP 1150-1250), the Little Ice Age (LIA 1650-1750), and the historical-present period (1850-2005). We first focus on a millennium simulations with the IPSL model (IPSL-CM5). We use daily temperature, precipitation, and SLP data from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) and a couple of IPSL simulations with diferents forcings. Summer weather regimes has been computed as well for NCEP sea level pressure data in order to compare observations with the same period (1948-2005) in CMIP5 and IPSL simulations outputs. We discuss and present the results comparing the effects of hydrological deficits in the preceding season, and the occurrence of specific weather regimes, during the hottest summers over Europe and SouthWestern Europe. This analysis compares differents climate forcings simulations.

Effects of warming and drying of soils on the ectomycorrhizal community of a mixed Pinus contorta/Picea engelmannii stand in Yellowstone Park

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cullings, Kenneth; Finley, S. K.; Parker, V. T.; Makhija, S.; DeVincenzi, Donald L. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphisms (RFLPs) analyses were used to determine patterns of change in ectomycorrhizal community structure response to seasonal warming and drying of soils. Soil cores (42 total, 21 from cold and wet soil in early June, and 21 from dry, warm soil in late August) were collected from replicate blocks in a mixed-conifer forest stand in Yellowstone. Results indicated no significant differences in species richness (2.62 species/core, SE 0.2 in June; 3.25, SE 0.2 in August), however there was a significant effect on ectomycorrhizal infection (P<0.05), mean number of EM tips/core was significantly lower in June (185.8, SE 34) than in August (337 SE 78). Data indicated no difference in overall EM fungal species composition, however among system dominants, two species (Cortinarius 9 and Cortinarius 10) were more abundant in August than in June (P<0.02). The remaining dominant fungal species exhibited no differences in relative abundance. Results are discussed in relation to soil fertility and composition.

Decoupled responses of soil bacteria and their invertebrate consumer to warming, but not freeze-thaw cycles, in the Antarctic Dry Valleys.

PubMed

Knox, Matthew A; Andriuzzi, Walter S; Buelow, Heather N; Takacs-Vesbach, Cristina; Adams, Byron J; Wall, Diana H

2017-10-01

Altered temperature profiles resulting in increased warming and freeze-thaw cycle (FTC) frequency pose great ecological challenges to organisms in alpine and polar ecosystems. We performed a laboratory microcosm experiment to investigate how temperature variability affects soil bacterial cell numbers, and abundance and traits of soil microfauna (the microbivorous nematode Scottnema lindsayae) from McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica. FTCs and constant freezing shifted nematode body size distribution towards large individuals, driven by higher mortality among smaller individuals. FTCs reduced both bacterial and nematode abundance, but bacterial cell numbers also declined under warming, demonstrating decoupled consumer-prey responses. We predict that higher occurrence of FTCs in cold ecosystems will select for large body size within soil microinvertebrates and overall reduce their abundance. In contrast, warm temperatures without FTCs could lead to divergent responses in soil bacteria and their microinvertebrate consumers, potentially affecting energy and nutrient transfer rates in soil food webs of cold ecosystems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Do summer temperatures trigger spring maturation in pacific lamprey, Entosphenus tridentatus?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clemens, B.J.; Van De Wetering, S.; Kaufman, J.; Holt, R.A.; Schreck, C.B.

2009-01-01

Pacific lamprey, Entosphenus tridentatus, return to streams and use somatic energy to fuel maturation. Body size decreases, the lamprey mature, spawn, and then die. We predicted that warm, summer temperatures (>20 ??C) would accentuate shrinkage in body size, and expedite sexual maturation and subsequent death. We compared fish reared in the laboratory at diel fluctuating temperatures of 20-24 ??C (mean = 21.8 ??C) with fish reared at cooler temperatures (13.6 ??C). The results confirmed our predictions. Lamprey from the warm water group showed significantly greater proportional decreases in body weight following the summer temperature treatments than fish from the cool water group. A greater proportion of warm water fish sexually matured (100%) and died (97%) the following spring than cool water fish (53% sexually mature, 61% died). Females tended to mature and die earlier than males, most obviously in the warm water group. ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Warming-induced northwestward migration of the East Asian monsoon rain belt from the Last Glacial Maximum to the mid-Holocene.

PubMed

Yang, Shiling; Ding, Zhongli; Li, Yangyang; Wang, Xu; Jiang, Wenying; Huang, Xiaofang

2015-10-27

Glacial-interglacial changes in the distribution of C3/C4 vegetation on the Chinese Loess Plateau have been related to East Asian summer monsoon intensity and position, and could provide insights into future changes caused by global warming. Here, we present δ(13)C records of bulk organic matter since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) from 21 loess sections across the Loess Plateau. The δ(13)C values (range: -25‰ to -16‰) increased gradually both from the LGM to the mid-Holocene in each section and from northwest to southeast in each time interval. During the LGM, C4 biomass increased from <5% in the northwest to 10-20% in the southeast, while during the mid-Holocene C4 vegetation increased throughout the Plateau, with estimated biomass increasing from 10% to 20% in the northwest to >40% in the southeast. The spatial pattern of C4 biomass in both the LGM and the mid-Holocene closely resembles that of modern warm-season precipitation, and thus can serve as a robust analog for the contemporary East Asian summer monsoon rain belt. Using the 10-20% isolines for C4 biomass in the cold LGM as a reference, we derived a minimum 300-km northwestward migration of the monsoon rain belt for the warm Holocene. Our results strongly support the prediction that Earth's thermal equator will move northward in a warmer world. The southward displacement of the monsoon rain belt and the drying trend observed during the last few decades in northern China will soon reverse as global warming continues.

Fertilization and early embryonic development in heifers and lactating cows in summer and lactating and dry cows in winter.

PubMed

Sartori, R; Sartor-Bergfelt, R; Mertens, S A; Guenther, J N; Parrish, J J; Wiltbank, M C

2002-11-01

Two experiments in two seasons evaluated fertilization rate and embryonic development in dairy cattle. Experiment 1 (summer) compared lactating Holstein cows (n = 27; 97.3 +/- 4.1 d postpartum [dppl; 40.0 +/- 1.5 kg milk/d) to nulliparous heifers (n = 28; 11 to 17 mo old). Experiment 2 (winter) compared lactating cows (n = 27; 46.4 +/- 1.6 dpp; 45.9 +/- 1.4 kg milk/d) to dry cows (n = 26). Inseminations based on estrus included combined semen from four high-fertility bulls. Embryos and oocytes recovered 5 d after ovulation were evaluated for fertilization, embryo quality (1 = excellent to 5 = degenerate), nuclei/embryo, and accessory sperm. In experiment 1, 21 embryos and 17 unfertilized oocytes (UFO) were recovered from lactating cows versus 32 embryos and no UFO from heifers (55% vs. 100% fertilization). Embryos from lactating cows had inferior quality scores (3.8 +/- 0.4 vs. 2.2 +/- 0.3), fewer nuclei/embryo (19.3 +/- 3.7 vs. 36.8 +/- 3.0) but more accessory sperm (37.3 +/- 5.8 vs. 22.4 +/- 5.5/embryo) than embryos from heifers. Sperm were attached to 80% of UFO (17.8 +/- 12.1 sperm/UFO). In experiment 2, lactating cows yielded 36 embryos and 5 UFO versus 34 embryos and 4 UFO from dry cows (87.8 vs. 89.5% fertilization). Embryo quality from lactating cows was inferior to dry cows (3.1 +/- 0.3 vs. 2.2 +/- 0.3), but embryos had similar numbers of nuclei (27.2 +/- 2.7 vs. 30.6 +/- 2.1) and accessory sperm (42.0 +/- 9.4 vs. 36.5 +/- 6.3). From 53% of the flushings from lactating cows and 28% from dry cows, only nonviable embryos were collected. Thus, embryos of lactating dairy cows were detectably inferior to embryos from nonlactating females as early as 5 d after ovulation, with a surprisingly high percentage of nonviable embryos. In addition, fertilization rate was reduced only in summer, apparently due to an effect of heat stress on the oocyte.

Recent summer precipitation trends in the Greater Horn of Africa and the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, A. Park; Funk, Chris; Michaelsen, Joel; Rauscher, Sara A.; Robertson, Iain; Wils, Tommy H. G.; Koprowski, Marcin; Eshetu, Zewdu; Loader, Neil J.

2012-11-01

We utilize a variety of climate datasets to examine impacts of two mechanisms on precipitation in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during northern-hemisphere summer. First, surface-pressure gradients draw moist air toward the GHA from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Congo Basin. Variability of the strength of these gradients strongly influences GHA precipitation totals and accounts for important phenomena such as the 1960s-1980s rainfall decline and devastating 1984 drought. Following the 1980s, precipitation variability became increasingly influenced by the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) region. Within this region, increases in sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation are linked with increased exports of dry mid-tropospheric air from the STIO region toward the GHA. Convergence of dry air above the GHA reduces local convection and precipitation. It also produces a clockwise circulation response near the ground that reduces moisture transports from the Congo Basin. Because precipitation originating in the Congo Basin has a unique isotopic signature, records of moisture transports from the Congo Basin may be preserved in the isotopic composition of annual tree rings in the Ethiopian Highlands. A negative trend in tree-ring oxygen-18 during the past half century suggests a decline in the proportion of precipitation originating from the Congo Basin. This trend may not be part of a natural cycle that will soon rebound because climate models characterize Indian Ocean warming as a principal signature of greenhouse-gas induced climate change. We therefore expect surface warming in the STIO region to continue to negatively impact GHA precipitation during northern-hemisphere summer.

Effect of ambient management interventions on the production and physiological performance of lactating Sahiwal cattle during hot dry summer.

PubMed

Ahmad, Mehtab; Bhatti, Jalees Ahmed; Abdullah, Muhammad; Javed, Khalid; Ali, Mehboob; Rashid, Ghazanfar; Uddin, Rafi; Badini, Ali Hassan; Jehan, Mudassar

2018-02-24

During summer season, increase in the environmental temperature in the subtropical regions of Pakistan is negatively affecting the performance of dairy animals. The study objective was to determine the effect of ambient management (90 days) on productive and physiological performance of lactating Sahiwal cows during hot dry summer season. Fifteen lactating cows during the early lactation stage, having similar parity (3), daily milk production (6.2 l), were randomly allocated to three treatments, 5 cows each, i.e., (1) kept under roof shade only, (2) provision of fans along with roof shade, and (3) provision of roof shade, fans, and sprinklers designated as S, SF, and SFS, respectively. The fans were of 360-rpm capacity and showers were on for 40 min after every 90-min interval from 9:00 to 21:00 h. THI values were 81.1 ± 0.7, 80.5 ± 0.7, and 77.7 ± 0.4 under S, SF, and SFS treatments, respectively. Cows were milked twice daily. Respiration rate (RR) and rectal temperature (RT) data were collected at 14:00 h on daily basis. The daily milk production was significantly higher in cows under SF (7.9 ± 1 kg) followed by SFS (6.9 ± 1.2 kg) and S (6.1 ± 0.9 kg) treatments. The mean RT (101.0 ± 0.04 °F) was significantly lower in cows under SFS than that on SF and S treatments and similarly mean RR was also lower (21.2 breaths/min) in cows under SFS followed by SF and S treatments. It is concluded that milk production and physiological performance in Sahiwal cows can be improved by fan-assisted ventilation during hot dry summer in subtropical regions.

Chronic environmental stress enhances tolerance to seasonal gradual warming in marine mussels

PubMed Central

Múgica, Maria; Izagirre, Urtzi; Sokolova, Inna M.

2017-01-01

In global climate change scenarios, seawater warming acts in concert with multiple stress sources, which may enhance the susceptibility of marine biota to thermal stress. Here, the responsiveness to seasonal gradual warming was investigated in temperate mussels from a chronically stressed population in comparison with a healthy one. Stressed and healthy mussels were subjected to gradual temperature elevation for 8 days (1°C per day; fall: 16–24°C, winter: 12–20°C, summer: 20–28°C) and kept at elevated temperature for 3 weeks. Healthy mussels experienced thermal stress and entered the time-limited survival period in the fall, became acclimated in winter and exhibited sublethal damage in summer. In stressed mussels, thermal stress and subsequent health deterioration were elicited in the fall but no transition into the critical period of time-limited survival was observed. Stressed mussels did not become acclimated to 20°C in winter, when they experienced low-to-moderate thermal stress, and did not experience sublethal damage at 28°C in summer, showing instead signs of metabolic rate depression. Overall, although the thermal threshold was lowered in chronically stressed mussels, they exhibited enhanced tolerance to seasonal gradual warming, especially in summer. These results challenge current assumptions on the susceptibility of marine biota to the interactive effects of seawater warming and pollution. PMID:28333994

Local cooling and warming effects of forests based on satellite observations.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Zhao, Maosheng; Motesharrei, Safa; Mu, Qiaozhen; Kalnay, Eugenia; Li, Shuangcheng

2015-03-31

The biophysical effects of forests on climate have been extensively studied with climate models. However, models cannot accurately reproduce local climate effects due to their coarse spatial resolution and uncertainties, and field observations are valuable but often insufficient due to their limited coverage. Here we present new evidence acquired from global satellite data to analyse the biophysical effects of forests on local climate. Results show that tropical forests have a strong cooling effect throughout the year; temperate forests show moderate cooling in summer and moderate warming in winter with net cooling annually; and boreal forests have strong warming in winter and moderate cooling in summer with net warming annually. The spatiotemporal cooling or warming effects are mainly driven by the two competing biophysical effects, evapotranspiration and albedo, which in turn are strongly influenced by rainfall and snow. Implications of our satellite-based study could be useful for informing local forestry policies.

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyons, J.; Stewart, J.S.; Mitro, M.

2010-01-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56.0-93.5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1?? C and water 0.8?? C), moderate warming (air 3?? C and water 2.4?? C) and major warming (air 5?? C and water 4?? C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin. ?? 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology ?? 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, Jana S.; Lyons, John D.; Matt Mitro,

2010-01-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0–93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin.

Seasonal warming of the Middle Atlantic Bight Cold Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lentz, S. J.

2017-02-01

The Cold Pool is a 20-60 m thick band of cold, near-bottom water that persists from spring to fall over the midshelf and outer shelf of the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) and Southern Flank of Georges Bank. The Cold Pool is remnant winter water bounded above by the seasonal thermocline and offshore by warmer slope water. Historical temperature profiles are used to characterize the average annual evolution and spatial structure of the Cold Pool. The Cold Pool gradually warms from spring to summer at a rate of order 1°C month-1. The warming rate is faster in shallower water where the Cold Pool is thinner, consistent with a vertical turbulent heat flux from the thermocline to the Cold Pool. The Cold Pool warming rate also varies along the shelf; it is larger over Georges Bank and smaller in the southern MAB. The mean turbulent diffusivities at the top of the Cold Pool, estimated from the spring to summer mean heat balance, are an order of magnitude larger over Georges Bank than in the southern MAB, consistent with much stronger tidal mixing over Georges Bank than in the southern MAB. The stronger tidal mixing causes the Cold Pool to warm more rapidly over Georges Bank and the eastern New England shelf than in the New York Bight or southern MAB. Consequently, the coldest Cold Pool water is located in the New York Bight from late spring to summer.

Investigating the long-term legacy of drought and warming on the soil microbial community across five European shrubland ecosystems.

PubMed

Rousk, Johannes; Smith, Andrew R; Jones, Davey L

2013-12-01

We investigated how the legacy of warming and summer drought affected microbial communities in five different replicated long-term (>10 years) field experiments across Europe (EU-FP7 INCREASE infrastructure). To focus explicitly on legacy effects (i.e., indirect rather than direct effects of the environmental factors), we measured microbial variables under the same moisture and temperature in a brief screening, and following a pre-incubation at stable conditions. Specifically, we investigated the size and composition of the soil microbial community (PLFA) alongside measurements of bacterial (leucine incorporation) and fungal (acetate in ergosterol incorporation) growth rates, previously shown to be highly responsive to changes in environmental factors, and microbial respiration. We found no legacy effects on the microbial community size, composition, growth rates, or basal respiration rates at the effect sizes used in our experimental setup (0.6 °C, about 30% precipitation reduction). Our findings support previous reports from single short-term ecosystem studies thereby providing a clear evidence base to allow long-term, broad-scale generalizations to be made. The implication of our study is that warming and summer drought will not result in legacy effects on the microbial community and their processes within the effect sizes here studied. While legacy effects on microbial processes during perturbation cycles, such as drying-rewetting, and on tolerance to drought and warming remain to be studied, our results suggest that any effects on overall ecosystem processes will be rather limited. Thus, the legacies of warming and drought should not be prioritized factors to consider when modeling contemporary rates of biogeochemical processes in soil. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Projection of Summer Climate on Tokyo Metropolitan Area using Pseudo Global Warming Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adachi, S. A.; Kimura, F.; Kusaka, H.; Hara, M.

2010-12-01

Recent surface air temperature observations in most of urban areas show the remarkable increasing trend affected by the global warming and the heat island effects. There are many populous areas in Japan. In such areas, the effects of land-use change and urbanization on the local climate are not negligible (Fujibe, 2010). The heat stress for citizen there is concerned to swell moreover in the future. Therefore, spatially detailed climate projection is required for making adaptation and mitigation plans. This study focuses on the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA) in summer and aims to estimate the local climate change over the TMA in 2070s using a regional climate model. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) was used for downscaling. A single layer urban canopy model (Kusaka et al., 2001) is built into RAMS as a parameterization expressing the features of urban surface. We performed two experiments for estimating present and future climate. In the present climate simulation, the initial and boundary conditions for RAMS are provided from the JRA-25/JCDAS. On the other hand, the Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) method (Sato et al., 2007) is applied to estimate the future climate, instead of the conventional dynamical downscaling method. The PGW method is expected to reduce the model biases in the future projection estimated by Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM). The boundary conditions used in the PGW method is given by the PGW data, which are obtained by adding the climate monthly difference between 1990s and 2070s estimated by AOGCMs to the 6-hourly reanalysis data. In addition, the uncertainty in the regional climate projection depending on the AOGCM projections is estimated from additional downscaling experiments using the different PGW data obtained from five AOGCMs. Acknowledgment: This work was supported by the Global Environment Research Fund (S-5-3) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. References: 1. Fujibe, F., Int. J. Climatol., doi

Sensitivity of the boreal forest-mire ecotone CO2, CH4, and N2O global warming potential to rainy and dry weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ťupek, Boris; Minkkinen, Kari; Vesala, Timo; Nikinmaa, Eero

2015-04-01

In a mosaic of well drained forests and poorly drained mires of boreal landscape the weather events such as drought and rainy control greenhouse gas dynamics and ecosystem global warming potential (GWP). In forest-mire ecotone especially in ecosystems where CO2 sink is nearly balanced with CO2 source, it's fairly unknown whether the net warming effect of emissions of gases with strong radiative forcing (CH4 and N2O) could offset the net cooling effect of CO2 sequestration. We compared the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) estimated from the carbon sequestrations of forest stands and forest floor CO2 fluxes against CH4 and N2O fluxes of nine forest/mire site types along the soil moisture gradient in Finland. The ground water of nine sites changed between 10 m in upland forests and 0.1 m in mires, and weather during three years ranged between exceptionally wet and dry for the local climate. The NEE of upland forests was typically a sink of CO2, regardless the weather. Though, xeric pine forest was estimated to be a source of CO2 during wet and intermediate year and became a weak sink only in dry year. The NEE of forest-mire transitions ranged between a sink in dry year, while increased stand carbon sequestration could offset the reduced forest floor CO2 emission, and a source in wet year. The NEE of two sparsely forested mires strongly differed. The lawn type mire was balanced around zero and the hummock type mire was relatively strong NEE sink, regardless the weather. Generally, nearly zero N2O emission could not offset the cooling effect of net CH4 sink and net CO2 sink of upland forest and forest-mire transitions. However in sparsely forested mires, with N2O emission also nearly zero, the CH4 emission during wet and intermediate year played important role in turning the net cooling effect of NEE into a net warming. When evaluating GWP of boreal landscapes, undisturbed forest-mire transitions should be regarded as net cooling ecosystems instead of hotspots of net

Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Donghyun; Min, Seung-Ki; Fischer, Erich; Shiogama, Hideo; Bethke, Ingo; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Scinocca, John F.

2018-04-01

This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events, exerting devastating impacts on the human and natural system over the Asian monsoon region.

Local cooling and warming effects of forests based on satellite observations

PubMed Central

Li, Yan; Zhao, Maosheng; Motesharrei, Safa; Mu, Qiaozhen; Kalnay, Eugenia; Li, Shuangcheng

2015-01-01

The biophysical effects of forests on climate have been extensively studied with climate models. However, models cannot accurately reproduce local climate effects due to their coarse spatial resolution and uncertainties, and field observations are valuable but often insufficient due to their limited coverage. Here we present new evidence acquired from global satellite data to analyse the biophysical effects of forests on local climate. Results show that tropical forests have a strong cooling effect throughout the year; temperate forests show moderate cooling in summer and moderate warming in winter with net cooling annually; and boreal forests have strong warming in winter and moderate cooling in summer with net warming annually. The spatiotemporal cooling or warming effects are mainly driven by the two competing biophysical effects, evapotranspiration and albedo, which in turn are strongly influenced by rainfall and snow. Implications of our satellite-based study could be useful for informing local forestry policies. PMID:25824529

[The innovation of warm disease theory in the Ming Dynasty before Wen yi lun On Pestilence].

PubMed

Zhang, Zhi-bin

2008-10-01

Some doctors of the Ming dynasty raised subversive doubts against the traditional viewpoints of "exogenous cold disease is warm-heat" before the emergence of Wen yi lun (On Pestilence), holding that warm-heat disease "is contracted in different seasons instead of being transformed from cold to warm and/or heat". The conception of the separation of warm-heat disease and exogenous cold disease had changed from obscure to clear. As the idea became clear, the recognition on the new affection of warm, heat, summer-heat, pestilent pathogen was formed, and the idea that the pathogens of summer-heat and warm entered the human body through the mouth and nostrils was put forward. The six-channel syndrome differentiation of warm disease and the five sweat-resolving methods in pestilence raised by the doctors of this period are the aspects of the differential diagnosis of syndrome and treatment in warm diseases, and deserve to be paid attention to.

The effects of climate changes on soil methane oxidation in a dry Arctic tundra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Imperio, Ludovica

2014-05-01

The effects of climate changes on soil methane oxidation in a dry Arctic tundra. Ludovica D'Imperio1, Anders Michelsen1, Christian J. Jørgensen1, Bo Elberling1 1Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Denmark At Northern latitudes climatic changes are predicted to be most pronounced resulting in increasing active layer depth and changes in growing season length, vegetation cover and nutrient cycling. As a consequence of increased temperature, large stocks of carbon stored in the permafrost-affected soils could become available for microbial transformations and under anoxic conditions result in increasing methane production affecting net methane (CH4) budget. Arctic tundra soils also serves as an important sink of atmospheric CH4 by microbial oxidation under aerobic conditions. While several process studies have documented the mechanisms behind both production and emissions of CH4 in arctic ecosystems, an important knowledge gap exists with respect to the in situ dynamics of microbial-driven uptake of CH4 in arctic dry lands which may be enhanced as a consequence of global warming and thereby counterbalancing CH4 emissions from Arctic wetlands. In-situ methane measurements were made in a dry Arctic tundra in Disko Island, Western Greenland, during the summer 2013 to assess the role of seasonal and inter-annual variations in temperatures and snow cover. The experimental set-up included snow fences installed in 2012, allowed investigations of the emissions of GHGs from soil under increased winter snow deposition and ambient field conditions. The soil fluxes of CH4 and CO2 were measured using closed chambers in manipulated plots with increased summer temperatures and shrub removal with or without increased winter precipitation. At the control plots, the averaged seasonal CH4 oxidation rates ranged between -0.05 mg CH4 m-2 hr-1 (end of August) and -0.32 mg CH4 m-2 hr-1 (end of June). In the

The link between Tibetan Plateau monsoon and Indian summer precipitation: a linear diagnostic perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Fei; Sielmann, Frank; Zhu, Xiuhua; Fraedrich, Klaus; Zhi, Xiefei; Peng, Ting; Wang, Lei

2017-12-01

The thermal forcing of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is analyzed to investigate the formation and variability of Tibetan Plateau Summer Monsoon (TPSM), which affects the climates of the surrounding regions, in particular the Indian summer monsoon precipitation. Dynamic composites and statistical analyses indicate that the Indian summer monsoon precipitation is less/greater than normal during the strong/weak TPSM. Strong (weak) TPSM is associated with an anomalous near surface cyclone (anticyclone) over the western part of the Tibetan Plateau, enhancing (reducing) the westerly flow along its southern flank, suppressing (favoring) the meridional flow of warm and moist air from the Indian ocean and thus cutting (providing) moisture supply for the northern part of India and its monsoonal rainfall. These results are complemented by a dynamic and thermodynamic analysis: (i) A linear thermal vorticity forcing primarily describes the influence of the asymmetric heating of TP generating an anomalous stationary wave flux. Composite analysis of anomalous stationary wave flux activity (after Plumb in J Atmos Sci 42:217-229, 1985) strongly indicate that non-orographic effects (diabatic heating and/or interaction with transient eddies) of the Tibetan Plateau contribute to the generation of an anomalous cyclone (anti-cyclone) over the western TP. (ii) Anomalous TPSM generation shows that strong TPSM years are related to the positive surface sensible heating anomalies over the eastern TP favoring the strong diabatic heating in summer. While negative TPSM years are associated with the atmospheric circulation anomalies during the preceding spring, enhancing northerly dry-cold air intrusions into TP, which may weaken the condensational heat release in the middle and upper troposphere, leading to a weaker than normal summer monsoon over the TP in summer.

Evapotranspiration-dominated biogeophysical warming effect of urbanization in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Guosong; Dong, Jinwei; Cui, Yaoping; Liu, Jiyuan; Zhai, Jun; He, Tian; Zhou, Yuyu; Xiao, Xiangming

2018-03-01

Given the considerable influences of urbanization on near-surface air temperature (T a ) and surface skin temperature (T s ) at local and regional scales, we investigated the biogeophysical effects of urbanization on T a and T s in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region of China, a typical rapidly urbanizing area, using the weather research and forecasting model (WRF). Two experiments were conducted using satellite-derived realistic areal fraction land cover data in 2010 and 1990 as well as localized parameters (e.g. albedo and leaf area index). Without considering anthropogenic heat, experimental differences indicated a regional biogeophysical warming of 0.15 °C (0.16 °C) in summer T a (T s ), but a negligible warming in winter T a (T s ). Sensitivity analyses also showed a stronger magnitude of local warming in summer than in winter. Along with an increase of 10% in the urban fraction, local T a (T s ) increases of 0.185 °C (0.335 °C), 0.212 °C (0.464 °C), and 0.140 °C (0.220 °C) were found at annual, summer, and winter scales, respectively, according to a space-for-time substitution method. The sensitivity analyses will be beneficial to get a rough biogeophysical warming estimation of future urbanization projections. Furthermore, a decomposed temperature metric (DTM) method was applied for the attribution analyses of the change in T s induced by urbanization. Our results showed that the decrease in evapotranspiration-induced latent heat played a dominate role in biogeophysical warming due to urbanization in BTH, indicating that increasing green space could alleviate warming effects, especially in summer.

Warming-induced northwestward migration of the East Asian monsoon rain belt from the Last Glacial Maximum to the mid-Holocene

PubMed Central

Yang, Shiling; Ding, Zhongli; Li, Yangyang; Wang, Xu; Jiang, Wenying; Huang, Xiaofang

2015-01-01

Glacial–interglacial changes in the distribution of C3/C4 vegetation on the Chinese Loess Plateau have been related to East Asian summer monsoon intensity and position, and could provide insights into future changes caused by global warming. Here, we present δ13C records of bulk organic matter since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) from 21 loess sections across the Loess Plateau. The δ13C values (range: –25‰ to –16‰) increased gradually both from the LGM to the mid-Holocene in each section and from northwest to southeast in each time interval. During the LGM, C4 biomass increased from <5% in the northwest to 10–20% in the southeast, while during the mid-Holocene C4 vegetation increased throughout the Plateau, with estimated biomass increasing from 10% to 20% in the northwest to >40% in the southeast. The spatial pattern of C4 biomass in both the LGM and the mid-Holocene closely resembles that of modern warm-season precipitation, and thus can serve as a robust analog for the contemporary East Asian summer monsoon rain belt. Using the 10–20% isolines for C4 biomass in the cold LGM as a reference, we derived a minimum 300-km northwestward migration of the monsoon rain belt for the warm Holocene. Our results strongly support the prediction that Earth's thermal equator will move northward in a warmer world. The southward displacement of the monsoon rain belt and the drying trend observed during the last few decades in northern China will soon reverse as global warming continues. PMID:26460029

Seasonally different response of photosynthetic activity to daytime and night-time warming in the Northern Hemisphere

DOE PAGES

Tan, Jianguang; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Anping; ...

2014-08-27

Over the last century the Northern Hemisphere has experienced rapid climate warming, but this warming has not been evenly distributed seasonally, as well as diurnally. The implications of such seasonal and diurnal heterogeneous warming on regional and global vegetation photosynthetic activity, however, are still poorly understood. Here, we investigated for different seasons how photosynthetic activity of vegetation correlates with changes in seasonal daytime and night-time temperature across the Northern Hemisphere (>30°N), using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 2011 obtained from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Our analysis revealed some striking seasonal differences in themore » response of NDVI to changes in day- versus night-time temperatures. For instance, while higher daytime temperature (T max) is generally associated with higher NDVI values across the boreal zone, the area exhibiting a statistically significant positive correlation between T max and NDVI is much larger in spring (41% of area in boreal zone – total area 12.6 × 10 6 km 2) than in summer and autumn (14% and 9%, respectively). In contrast to the predominantly positive response of boreal ecosystems to changes in T max, increases in T max tended to negatively influence vegetation growth in temperate dry regions, particularly during summer. Changes in night-time temperature (T min) correlated negatively with autumnal NDVI in most of the Northern Hemisphere, but had a positive effect on spring and summer NDVI in most temperate regions (e.g., Central North America and Central Asia). Such divergent covariance between the photosynthetic activity of Northern Hemispheric vegetation and day- and night-time temperature changes among different seasons and climate zones suggests a changing dominance of ecophysiological processes across time and space. Lastly, understanding the seasonally different responses of vegetation photosynthetic activity to

The McMurdo Dry Valleys: A landscape on the threshold of change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fountain, Andrew G.; Levy, Joseph S.; Gooseff, Michael N.; Van Horn, David

2014-11-01

Field observations of coastal and lowland regions in the McMurdo Dry Valleys suggest they are on the threshold of rapid topographic change, in contrast to the high elevation upland landscape that represents some of the lowest rates of surface change on Earth. A number of landscapes have undergone dramatic and unprecedented landscape changes over the past decade including, the Wright Lower Glacier (Wright Valley) - ablated several tens of meters, the Garwood River (Garwood Valley) has incised > 3 m into massive ice permafrost, smaller streams in Taylor Valley (Crescent, Lawson, and Lost Seal Streams) have experienced extensive down-cutting and/or bank undercutting, and Canada Glacier (Taylor Valley) has formed sheer, > 4 meter deep canyons. The commonality between all these landscape changes appears to be sediment on ice acting as a catalyst for melting, including ice-cement permafrost thaw. We attribute these changes to increasing solar radiation over the past decade despite no significant trend in summer air temperature. To infer possible future landscape changes in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, due to anticipated climate warming, we map ‘at risk’ landscapes defined as those with buried massive ice in relative warm regions of the valleys. Results show that large regions of the valley bottoms are ‘at risk’. Changes in surface topography will trigger important responses in hydrology, geochemistry, and biological community structure and function.

Climate dynamics of South America during summer: Connections between the large-scale circulation and regional precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenters, Johh Derick

1997-05-01

Relationships between the large-scale circulation and regional precipitation over South America during austral summer are examined using a GCM, linear model, and observational analyses. Emphasis is placed on understanding the origin of upper-tropospheric circulation features such as the Bolivian high and its effects on South American precipitation variability, particularly on the Central Andean Altiplano. Results from the linear model indicate that the Bolivian high and 'Nordeste low' are generated in response to precipitation over the Amazon basin, Central Andes, and South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ), with African precipitation also playing a crucial role in the formation of the low. The direct mechanical and sensible heating effects of the Andes are minimal, acting only to induce a weak lee trough in midlatitudes and a shallow monsoonal circulation over the Central Andes. In the GCM the effects of the Andes include a strengthening of the Bolivian high and northward shift of the Nordeste low, primarily through changes in the precipitation field. The position of the Bolivian high is primarily determined by Amazonian precipitation and is little affected by the removal of the Andes. Strong subsidence to the west of the high is found to be important for the maintenance of the high's warm core, while large-scale convective overshooting to the east is responsible for a layer of cold air above the high. Observations from eight summer seasons reveal a close relationship between precipitation variability in the Central Andes and the position and intensity of the Bolivian high. The physical mechanisms of this connection are explored using composite, EOF, and correlation techniques. On intraseasonal to interannual timescales, rainy episodes on the Altiplano are found to be associated with warm, moist, poleward flow along the eastern flank of the Andes, often in conjunction with extratropical disturbances and a westward displacement of the SACZ. Corresponding to this

Is the Pearl River basin, China, drying or wetting? Seasonal variations, causes and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Li, Jianfeng; Gu, Xihui; Shi, Peijun

2018-07-01

Soil moisture plays crucial roles in the hydrological cycle and is also a critical link between land surface and atmosphere. The Pearl River basin (PRb) is climatically subtropical and tropical and is highly sensitive to climate changes. In this study, seasonal soil moisture changes across the PRb were analyzed using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model forced by the gridded 0.5° × 0.5° climatic observations. Seasonal changes of soil moisture in both space and time were investigated using the Mann-Kendall trend test method. Potential influencing factors behind seasonal soil moisture changes such as precipitation and temperature were identified using the Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) technique. The results indicated that: (1) VIC model performs well in describing changing properties of soil moisture across the PRb; (2) Distinctly different seasonal features of soil moisture can be observed. Soil moisture in spring decreased from east to west parts of the PRb. In summer however, soil moisture was higher in east and west parts but was lower in central parts of the PRb; (3) A significant drying trend was identified over the PRb in autumn, while no significant drying trends can be detected in other seasons; (4) The increase/decrease in precipitation can generally explain the wetting/drying tendency of soil moisture. However, warming temperature contributed significantly to the drying trends and these drying trends were particularly evident during autumn and winter; (5) Significant decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature combined to trigger substantially decreasing soil moisture in autumn. In winter, warming temperature is the major reason behind decreased soil moisture although precipitation is in slightly decreasing tendency. Season variations of soil moisture and related implications for hydro-meteorological processes in the subtropical and tropical river basins over the globe should arouse considerable human concerns.

Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

2017-10-01

Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

Late summer temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring density for Sygera Mountain, southeastern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Mingyong; Duan, Jianping; Wang, Lily; Zhu, Haifeng

2018-04-01

Although several tree-ring density-based summer/late summer temperature reconstructions have been developed on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the understanding of the local/regional characteristics of summer temperature fluctuations on a long-term scale in some regions is still limited. To improve our understanding in these aspects, more local or regional summer temperature reconstructions extending back over several centuries are required. In this study, a new mean latewood density (LWD) chronology from Abies georgei var. smithii from the upper tree line of Sygera Mountain on the southeastern TP was developed to reconstruct the late summer temperature variability since 1820 CE. The bootstrapped correlation analysis showed that the LWD chronology index was significantly and positively correlated with the late summer (August-September) mean temperatures (r1950-2008 = 0.63, p < 0.001) recorded at the nearest meteorological station and that this reconstruction has considerable potential to represent the late summer temperature variability at the regional scale. Our late summer temperature reconstruction revealed three obvious cold periods (i.e., 1872-1908, 1913-1937 and 1941-1966) and two relatively warm phases (i.e., 1821-1871 and 1970-2008) over the past two centuries. Comparisons of our reconstruction with other independent tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions, glacier fluctuations and historical documental records from neighboring regions showed good agreement in these relatively cold and warm intervals. Our reconstruction exhibits an overall increasing temperature trend since the 1960s, providing new evidence supporting the recent warming of the TP. Moreover, our results also indicate that the late summer temperature variability of Sygera Mountain on the southeastern TP has potential links with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

Welcome Summer with Some Festive Shirts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Temple Skelton

2011-01-01

This article describes an art lesson that allows students to create a bit of fun with a festive shirt that welcomes the warm, carefree summer days. In this lesson, the students investigate the connection between patterns and rhythm, create variety using different-sized designs, and discuss personal artwork and the artwork of others.

South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability and Trend: Its Links to Indo-Pacific SST Anomalies and Moist Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasanna, V.

2016-06-01

The warm (cold) phase of El Niño (La Niña) and its impact on all Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall (AISMR) relationship is explored for the past 100 years. The 103-year (1901-2003) data from the twentieth century reanalysis datasets (20CR) and other major reanalysis datasets for southwest monsoon season (JJAS) is utilized to find out the simultaneous influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-AISMR relationship. Two cases such as wet, dry monsoon years associated with ENSO(+) (El Niño), ENSO(-) (La Niña) and Non-ENSO (neutral) events have been discussed in detail using observed rainfall and three-dimensional 20CR dataset. The dry and wet years associated with ENSO and Non-ENSO periods show significant differences in the spatial pattern of rainfall associated with three-dimensional atmospheric composite, the 20CR dataset has captured the anomalies quite well. During wet (dry) years, the rainfall is high (low), i.e. 10 % above (below) average from the long-term mean and this wet or dry condition occur both during ENSO and Non-ENSO phases. The Non-ENSO year dry or wet composites are also focused in detail to understand, where do the anomalous winds come from unlike in the ENSO case. The moisture transport is coherent with the changes in the spatial pattern of AISMR and large-scale feature in the 20CR dataset. Recent 50-year trend (1951-2000) is also analyzed from various available observational and reanalysis datasets to see the influence of Indo-Pacific SST and moist processes on the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall trend. Apart from the Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST), the moisture convergence and moisture transport among India (IND), Equatorial Indian Ocean (IOC) and tropical western pacific (WNP) is also important in modifying the wet or dry cycles over India. The mutual interaction among IOC, WNP and IND in seasonal timescales is significant in modifying wet and dry cycles over the Indian region and the seasonal anomalies.

Temperate tree species show identical response in tree water deficit but different sensitivities in sap flow to summer soil drying.

PubMed

Brinkmann, Nadine; Eugster, Werner; Zweifel, Roman; Buchmann, Nina; Kahmen, Ansgar

2016-12-01

Temperate forests are expected to be particularly vulnerable to drought and soil drying because they are not adapted to such conditions and perform best in mesic environments. Here we ask (i) how sensitively four common temperate tree species (Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies, Acer pseudoplatanus and Fraxinus excelsior) respond in their water relations to summer soil drying and seek to determine (ii) if species-specific responses to summer soil drying are related to the onset of declining water status across the four species. Throughout 2012 and 2013 we determined tree water deficit (TWD) as a proxy for tree water status from recorded stem radius changes and monitored sap flow rates with sensors on 16 mature trees studied in the field at Lägeren, Switzerland. All tree species responded equally in their relative maximum TWD to the onset of declining soil moisture. This implies that the water supply of all tree species was affected by declining soil moisture and that none of the four species was able to fully maintain its water status, e.g., by access to alternative water sources in the soil. In contrast we found strong and highly species-specific responses of sap flow to declining soil moisture with the strongest decline in P. abies (92%), followed by F. sylvatica (53%) and A. pseudoplatanus (48%). F. excelsior did not significantly reduce sap flow. We hypothesize the species-specific responses in sap flow to declining soil moisture that occur despite a simultaneous increase in relative TWD in all species reflect how fast these species approach critical levels of their water status, which is most likely influenced by species-specific traits determining the hydraulic properties of the species tree. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Comparison of the effect of land-sea thermal contrast on interdecadal variations in winter and summer blockings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yongli; Huang, Jianping; Li, Dongdong; Xie, Yongkun; Zhang, Guolong; Qi, Yulei; Wang, Shanshan; Totz, Sonja

2017-11-01

The influence of winter and summer land-sea surface thermal contrast on blocking for 1948-2013 is investigated using observations and the coupled model intercomparison project outputs. The land-sea index (LSI) is defined to measure the changes of zonal asymmetric thermal forcing under global warming. The summer LSI shows a slower increasing trend than winter during this period. For the positive of summer LSI, the EP flux convergence induced by the land-sea thermal forcing in the high latitude becomes weaker than normal, which induces positive anomaly of zonal-mean westerly and double-jet structure. Based on the quasiresonance amplification mechanism, the narrow and reduced westerly tunnel between two jet centers provides a favor environment for more frequent blocking. Composite analysis demonstrates that summer blocking shows an increasing trend of event numbers and a decreasing trend of durations. The numbers of the short-lived blocking persisting for 5-9 days significantly increases and the numbers of the long-lived blocking persisting for longer than 10 days has a weak increase than that in negative phase of summer LSI. The increasing transient wave activities induced by summer LSI is responsible for the decreasing duration of blockings. The increasing blocking due to summer LSI can further strengthen the continent warming and increase the summer LSI, which forms a positive feedback. The opposite dynamical effect of LSI on summer and winter blocking are discussed and found that the LSI-blocking negative feedback partially reduces the influence of the above positive feedback and induce the weak summer warming rate.

Little Ice Age Summer Temperatures on Pindos Mountains, Greece, From a 750 Year Long Pinus Nigra Tree-Ring Chronology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutavas, A.; Dimitrakopoulos, A. P.

2015-12-01

We present a 750-year long tree-ring chronology from black pines (Pinus nigra) in Valia Kalda National Park, Pindos Mountains, Greece. The chronology shows a strong climate signal which consists of significant negative correlation (R=-0.5) with summer temperature (Jun-Jul-Aug-Sep), and positive correlation with summer precipitation. We exploit these relationships to reconstruct summer climate from ~1250 CE to present. In particular we investigate the character of the Little Ice Age (LIA) on mountainous Greece. We find evidence for cooler/wetter summers during the 18th and 19th centuries, but warmer/drier summers during the 14th through 17th centuries, during some of the coldest periods of the LIA in Northern Europe including the Maunder Minimum. This counter-intuitive pattern suggests the LIA had distinct signatures in the Easter Mediterranean, diverging from those of Northern Europe. The temperature pattern reconstructed here is remarkably similar to a recent reconstruction of summer temperatures from maximum latewood density (MXD) of Pinus heldreichii on Mount Olympus, just 150 km east of our site. However, because of the ambivalence of the climate signal with respect to temperature vs. precipitation in both of these reconstructions, there remains uncertainty as to whether the LIA was primarily warm, or dry, or some combination. We advocate for further reconstructions of LIA climate in the Balkan Peninsula and Eastern Mediterranean to explore relationships with Northern Europe and elucidate the broader climatic pattern and dynamical connections.

Variation in the Asian monsoon intensity and dry-wet conditions since the Little Ice Age in central China revealed by an aragonite stalagmite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.-J.; Yuan, D.-X.; Li, H.-C.; Cheng, H.; Li, T.-Y.; Edwards, R. L.; Lin, Y.-S.; Qin, J.-M.; Tang, W.; Zhao, Z.-Y.; Mii, H.-S.

2014-10-01

This paper focuses on the climate variability in central China since AD 1300, involving: (1) a well-dated, 1.5-year resolution stalagmite δ18O record from Lianhua Cave, central China (2) links of the δ18O record with regional dry-wet conditions, monsoon intensity, and temperature over eastern China (3) correlations among drought events in the Lianhua record, solar irradiation, and ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) variation. We present a highly precise, 230Th / U-dated, 1.5-year resolution δ18O record of an aragonite stalagmite (LHD1) collected from Lianhua Cave in the Wuling Mountain area of central China. The comparison of the δ18O record with the local instrumental record and historical documents indicates that (1) the stalagmite δ18O record reveals variations in the summer monsoon intensity and dry-wet conditions in the Wuling Mountain area. (2) A stronger East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) enhances the tropical monsoon trough controlled by ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), which produces higher spring quarter rainfall and isotopically light monsoonal moisture in the central China. (3) The summer quarter/spring quarter rainfall ratio in central China can be a potential indicator of the EASM strength: a lower ratio corresponds to stronger EASM and higher spring rainfall. The ratio changed from <1 to >1 after 1950, reflecting that the summer quarter rainfall of the study area became dominant under stronger influence of the Northwestern Pacific High. Eastern China temperatures varied with the solar activity, showing higher temperatures under stronger solar irradiation, which produced stronger summer monsoons. During Maunder, Dalton and 1900 sunspot minima, more severe drought events occurred, indicating a weakening of the summer monsoon when solar activity decreased on decadal timescales. On an interannual timescale, dry conditions in the study area prevailed under El Niño conditions, which is also supported by the spectrum analysis. Hence, our record

A new mechanism for warm-season precipitation response to global warming based on convection-permitting simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Aiguo; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Prein, Andreas F.

2017-08-01

Climate models project increasing precipitation intensity but decreasing frequency as greenhouse gases increase. However, the exact mechanism for the frequency decrease remains unclear. Here we investigate this by analyzing hourly data from regional climate change simulations with 4 km grid spacing covering most of North America using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model was forced with present and future boundary conditions, with the latter being derived by adding the CMIP5 19-model ensemble mean changes to the ERA-interim reanalysis. The model reproduces well the observed seasonal and spatial variations in precipitation frequency and histograms, and the dry interval between rain events over the contiguous US. Results show that overall precipitation frequency indeed decreases during the warm season mainly due to fewer light-moderate precipitation (0.1 < P ≤ 2.0 mm/h) events, while heavy (2 < P ≤ 10 mm/h) to very heavy precipitation (P > 10 mm/h) events increase. Dry spells become longer and more frequent, together with a reduction in time-mean relative humidity (RH) in the lower troposphere during the warm season. The increased dry hours and decreased RH lead to a reduction in overall precipitation frequency and also for light-moderate precipitation events, while water vapor-induced increases in precipitation intensity and the positive latent heating feedback in intense storms may be responsible for the large increase in intense precipitation. The size of intense storms increases while their number decreases in the future climate, which helps explain the increase in local frequency of heavy precipitation. The results generally support a new hypothesis for future warm-season precipitation: each rainstorm removes ≥7% more moisture from the air per 1 K local warming, and surface evaporation and moisture advection take slightly longer than currently to replenish the depleted moisture before the next storm forms, leading to longer dry spells and

Differences in CAPE between wet and dry spells of the monsoon over the southeastern peninsular India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohan, T. S.; Rao, T. N.; Rajeevan, M.

2018-03-01

In the present research we explored the variability of convective available potential energy (CAPE) during wet and dry spells over southeast India. Comparison between India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations and reanalysis products (NCEP, ERA-interim, and MERRA) reconfirms that gridded data sets can be utilized to fill the void of observations. Later, GPS radiosonde measurements made at Gadanki (13.5 N, 79.2 E) Andre analysis output are utilized to address key scientific issues related to CAPE over the southeastern peninsular region. They are: (1) How does CAPE vary between different spells of the Indian summer monsoon (i.e., from wet to dry spell)? (2) Does differences in CAPE and in the vertical structure of buoyancy between spells are localized features over Gadanki or observed all over southeastern peninsular region? (3) What physical/dynamical processes are responsible for the differences in CAPE between spells and how do they affect the convection growth in dry spell? Interestingly, CAPE is higher in wet spell than in dry spell, in contrast to the observations made elsewhere over land and warm oceans. Similar feature (high CAPE in wet spell) is observed at all grid points in the southeastern peninsular India. Furthermore, vertical buoyancy profiles show only one peak in the middle-upper troposphere in wet spell, while two peaks are observed in most of the profiles (66%) in dry spell over the entire study region in all the reanalysis products. Plausible mechanisms are discussed for the observed CAPE differences. They are, among others, timing of sounding with reference to rain occurrence, rapid buildup of surface instabilities, moistening of lower troposphere by evaporation of the surface moisture in wet spell, enhanced low-level moisture convergence, evaporation of rain in relatively warm and dry atmosphere, and reduction of positive buoyancy in dry spell. The omnipresence of stable layers and strong and deep shear in the presence of weak updrafts

Microbial Community Activity is Insensitive to Passive Warming in a Semiarid Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espinosa, N. J.; Gallery, R. E.; Fehmi, J. S.

2016-12-01

Soil microorganisms drive ecosystem nutrient cycling through the production of extracellular enzymes, which facilitate organic matter decomposition, and the flux of large amounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Although aird and semiarid ecosystems occupy over 40% of land cover and are projected to expand due to climate change, much of our current understanding of these processes comes from mesic temperate ecosystems. Semiarid ecosystems have added complexity due to the widespread biological adaptations to infrequent and discreet precipitation pulses, which enable biological activity to persist throughout dry periods and thrive following seasonal precipitation events. Additionally, the intricacies of plant-microbe interactions and the response of these interactions to a warmer climate and increased precipitation variability in semiarid ecosystems present a continued challenge for climate change research. In this study, we used a passive warming experiment with added plant debris as either woodchip or biochar, to simulate different long-term carbon additions to two common semiarid soils. The response of soil respiration, plant biomass, and microbial activity was monitored bi-annually. We hypothesized that microbial activity would increase with temperature manipulations when soil moisture limitation was alleviated by summer precipitation. The passive warming treatment was most pronounced during periods of daily and seasonal temperature maxima. For all seven hydrolytic enzymes examined, there was no significant response to experimental warming, regardless of seasonal climatic and soil moisture variation. Surprisingly, soil respiration responded positively to warming for certain carbon additions and seasons, which did not correspond with a similar response in plant biomass. The enzyme results observed here are consistent with the few other experimental results for warming in semiarid ecosystems and indicate that the soil microbial community activity of semiarid

Artists Paint ... Summer: Grade 2

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herberholz, Barbara

2012-01-01

A humid summer haze covers the River Seine and the grassy bank where young men and boys go swimming on Sunday. Everything seems so quiet, still, and very hot. They wear hats to protect them from the hot sun. The artist Georges Seurat used warm tones to give viewers the feeling of the hot sun. Seurat was trying to catch the dazzle of hot sunlight…

Assessing water quality of the Chesapeake Bay by the impact of sea level rise and warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, P.; Linker, L.; Wang, H.; Bhatt, G.; Yactayo, G.; Hinson, K.; Tian, R.

2017-08-01

The influence of sea level rise and warming on circulation and water quality of the Chesapeake Bay under projected climate conditions in 2050 were estimated by computer simulation. Four estuarine circulation scenarios in the estuary were run using the same watershed load in 1991-2000 period. They are, 1) the Base Scenario, which represents the current climate condition, 2) a Sea Level Rise Scenario, 3) a Warming Scenario, and 4) a combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario. With a 1.6-1.9°C increase in monthly air temperatures in the Warming Scenario, water temperature in the Bay is estimated to increase by 0.8-1°C. Summer average anoxic volume is estimated to increase 1.4 percent compared to the Base Scenario, because of an increase in algal blooms in the spring and summer, promotion of oxygen consumptive processes, and an increase of stratification. However, a 0.5-meter Sea Level Rise Scenario results in a 12 percent reduction of anoxic volume. This is mainly due to increased estuarine circulation that promotes oxygen-rich sea water intrusion in lower layers. The combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario results in a 10.8 percent reduction of anoxic volume. Global warming increases precipitation and consequently increases nutrient loads from the watershed by approximately 5-7 percent. A scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and current estuarine circulation patterns yielded a 19 percent increase in summer anoxic volume, while a scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and modified estuarine circulation patterns by the aforementioned sea level rise and warming yielded a 6 percent increase in summer anoxic volume. Impacts on phytoplankton, sediments, and water clarity were also analysed.

Peritoneal Tumorigenesis and Inflammation are Ameliorated by Humidified-Warm Carbon Dioxide Insufflation in the Mouse.

PubMed

Carpinteri, Sandra; Sampurno, Shienny; Bernardi, Maria-Pia; Germann, Markus; Malaterre, Jordane; Heriot, Alexander; Chambers, Brenton A; Mutsaers, Steven E; Lynch, Andrew C; Ramsay, Robert G

2015-12-01

Conventional laparoscopic surgery uses CO2 that is dry and cold, which can damage peritoneal surfaces. It is speculated that disseminated cancer cells may adhere to such damaged peritoneum and metastasize. We hypothesized that insufflation using humidified-warm CO2, which has been shown to reduce mesothelial damage, will also ameliorate peritoneal inflammation and tumor cell implantation compared to conventional dry-cold CO2. Laparoscopic insufflation was modeled in mice along with anesthesia and ventilation. Entry and exit ports were introduced to maintain insufflation using dry-cold or humidified-warm CO2 with a constant flow and pressure for 1 h; then 1000 or 1 million fluorescent-tagged murine colorectal cancer cells (CT26) were delivered into the peritoneal cavity. The peritoneum was collected at intervals up to 10 days after the procedure to measure inflammation, mesothelial damage, and tumor burden using fluorescent detection, immunohistochemistry, and scanning electron microscopy. Rapid temperature control was achieved only in the humidified-warm group. Port-site tumors were present in all mice. At 10 days, significantly fewer tumors on the peritoneum were counted in mice insufflated with humidified-warm compared to dry-cold CO2 (p < 0.03). The inflammatory marker COX-2 was significantly increased in the dry-cold compared to the humidified-warm cohort (p < 0.01), while VEGFA expression was suppressed only in the humidified-warm cohort. Significantly less mesothelial damage and tumor cell implantation was evident from 2 h after the procedure in the humidified-warm cohort. Mesothelial cell damage and inflammation are reduced by using humidified-warm CO2 for laparoscopic oncologic surgery and may translate to reduce patients' risk of developing peritoneal metastasis.

Potential impacts of the Arctic on interannual and interdecadal summer precipitation over China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Yuefeng; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

2013-02-01

After the end of the 1970s, there has been a tendency for enhanced summer precipitation over South China and the Yangtze River valley and drought over North China and Northeastern China. Coincidentally, Arctic ice concentration has decreased since the late 1970s, with larger reduction in summer than spring. However, the Arctic warming is more significant in spring than summer, suggesting that spring Arctic conditions could be more important in their remote impacts. This study investigates the potential impacts of the Arctic on summer precipitation in China. The leading spatial patterns and time coefficients of the unfiltered, interannual, and interdecadal precipitationmore » (1960-2008) modes were analyzed and compared using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, which shows that the first three EOFs can capture the principal precipitation patterns (northern, central and southern patterns) over eastern China. Regression of the Arctic spring and summer temperature onto the time coefficients of the leading interannual and interdecadal precipitation modes shows that interdecadal summer precipitation in China is related to the Arctic spring warming, but the relationship with Arctic summer temperature is weak. Moreover, no notable relationships were found between the first three modes of interannual precipitation and Arctic spring or summer temperatures. Finally, correlations between summer precipitation and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index from January to August were investigated, which indicate that summer precipitation in China correlates with AO only to some extent. Overall, this study suggests important relationships between the Arctic spring temperature and summer precipitation over China at the interdecadal time scale.« less

The role of the winter residual circulation in the summer mesopause regions in WACCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanne Kuilman, Maartje; Karlsson, Bodil

2018-03-01

High winter planetary wave activity warms the summer polar mesopause via a link between the two hemispheres. Complex wave-mean-flow interactions take place on a global scale, involving sharpening and weakening of the summer zonal flow. Changes in the wind shear occasionally generate flow instabilities. Additionally, an altering zonal wind modifies the breaking of vertically propagating gravity waves. A crucial component for changes in the summer zonal flow is the equatorial temperature, as it modifies latitudinal gradients. Since several mechanisms drive variability in the summer zonal flow, it can be hard to distinguish which one is dominant. In the mechanism coined interhemispheric coupling, the mesospheric zonal flow is suggested to be a key player for how the summer polar mesosphere responds to planetary wave activity in the winter hemisphere. We here use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to investigate the role of the summer stratosphere in shaping the conditions of the summer polar mesosphere. Using composite analyses, we show that in the absence of an anomalous summer mesospheric temperature gradient between the equator and the polar region, weak planetary wave forcing in the winter would lead to a warming of the summer mesosphere region instead of a cooling, and vice versa. This is opposing the temperature signal of the interhemispheric coupling that takes place in the mesosphere, in which a cold and calm winter stratosphere goes together with a cold summer mesopause. We hereby strengthen the evidence that the variability in the summer mesopause region is mainly driven by changes in the summer mesosphere rather than in the summer stratosphere.

A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, A. Park; Funk, Christopher C.

2011-01-01

Observations and simulations link anthropogenic greenhouse and aerosol emissions with rapidly increasing Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Over the past 60 years, the Indian Ocean warmed two to three times faster than the central tropical Pacific, extending the tropical warm pool to the west by ~40° longitude (>4,000 km). This propensity toward rapid warming in the Indian Ocean has been the dominant mode of interannual variability among SSTs throughout the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (55°E–140°W) since at least 1948, explaining more variance than anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the atmosphere, the primary mode of variability has been a corresponding trend toward greatly increased convection and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean. The temperature and rainfall increases in this region have produced a westward extension of the western, ascending branch of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Diabatic heating due to increased mid-tropospheric water vapor condensation elicits a westward atmospheric response that sends an easterly flow of dry air aloft toward eastern Africa. In recent decades (1980–2009), this response has suppressed convection over tropical eastern Africa, decreasing precipitation during the ‘long-rains’ season of March–June. This trend toward drought contrasts with projections of increased rainfall in eastern Africa and more ‘El Niño-like’ conditions globally by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Increased Indian Ocean SSTs appear likely to continue to strongly modulate the Warm Pool circulation, reducing precipitation in eastern Africa, regardless of whether the projected trend in ENSO is realized. These results have important food security implications, informing agricultural development, environmental conservation, and water resource planning.

Effect of simulated climate warming on the morphological and physiological traits of Elsholtzia haichowensis in copper contaminated soil.

PubMed

Guan, Ming; Jin, Zexin; Li, Junmin; Pan, Xiaocui; Wang, Suizi; Li, Yuelin

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of temperature and Cu on the morphological and physiological traits of Elsholtzia haichowensis grown in soils amended with four Cu concentrations (0, 50, 500, and 1000 mg kg(-1)) under ambient temperature and slight warming. At the same Cu concentration, the height, shoot dry weight, total plant dry weight, and root morphological parameters such as length, surface area and tip number of E. haichowensis increased due to the slight warming. The net photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, transpiration, light use efficiency were also higher under the slight warming than under ambient temperature. The increased Cu concentrations, total Cu uptake, bioaccumulation factors and tolerance indexes of shoots and roots were also observed at the slight warming. The shoot dry weight, root dry weight, total plant dry weight and the bioaccumulation factors of shoots and roots at 50 mg Cu kg(-1) were significantly higher than those at 500 and 1000 mg Cu kg(-1) under the slight warming. Therefore, the climate warming may improve the ability of E. haichowensis to phytoremediate Cu-contaminated soil, and the ability improvement greatly depended on the Cu concentrations in soils.

Comparative recruitment success of pine provenances (Pinus sylvestris, Pinus nigra) under simulated climate change in the Swiss Rhone valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richter, Sarah; Moser, Barbara; Ghazoul, Jaboury; Wohlgemuth, Thomas

2010-05-01

Low elevation Scots pine forests of European inner-alpine dry valleys may potentially disappear under continued climate warming, largely in response to increased warming and drought effects. In the upper Rhone valley, the driest region in Switzerland, increased Scots pine mortality in mature forest stands and sparse tree establishment after a large-scale forest fire already give evidence for ongoing climate change. Furthermore, vegetation models predict a decline of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens) even under a moderate temperature increase of 2-3°C. A decline of tree species in the region may lead to a transition from forest to a steppe-like vegetation. Such a change is of considerable concern for both biodiversity and natural hazard protection. Although changing climate conditions affect all life stages of a tree, its most vulnerable stage is recruitment. We tested P. sylvestris and P. nigra seedlings to simulated temperature increase and water stress, using seeds from the upper Rhone valley, Switzerland (CH), and from Peñyagolosa, Spain (ES). The experiment was located outdoors at the bottom of the Rhone Valley. Treatments consisted of factorial combinations of 3 precipitation regimes (‘wet spring-wet summer', ‘dry spring-dry summer' and ‘wet spring-dry summer') and 3 soil heating levels (+0 °C, +2.5 °C, +5 °C). Automatically operated shelters intercepted natural rainfall and different precipitation regimes were simulated by manual irrigation. We found significantly lower germination rates under dry conditions compared to wet conditions, whereas soil temperature affected germination rates only for P. nigra and when elevated by 5°C. Contrastingly, an increase of soil temperatures by 2.5 °C already caused a substantial decrease of survival rates under both ‘dry spring-dry summer' and ‘wet spring-dry summer' conditions. Precipitation regime was more important for survival than temperature increase. Seasonality of

Reduced connection between the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Southern Hemisphere Circulation on interannual timescales under intense global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Tianlei; Guo, Pinwen; Cheng, Jun; Hu, Aixue; Lin, Pengfei; Yu, Yongqiang

2018-03-01

Previous studies show a close relationship between the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation on interannual timescales. In this study, we investigate whether this close relationship will change under intensive greenhouse-gas effect by analyzing simulations under two different climate background states: preindustrial era and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 stabilization from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4). Results show a significantly reduced relationship under stabilized RCP8.5 climate state, such a less correlated EASM with the sea level pressure in the southern Indian Ocean and the SH branch of local Hadley Cell. Further analysis suggests that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to this warming leads to a less vigorous northward meridional heat transport, a decreased intertropical temperature contrast in boreal summer, which produces a weaker cross-equatorial Hadley Cell in the monsoonal region and a reduced Interhemispheric Mass Exchange (IME). Since the monsoonal IME acts as a bridge connecting EASM and SH circulation, the reduced IME weakens this connection. By performing freshwater hosing experiment using the Flexible Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2), we show a weakened relationship between the EASM and SH circulation as in CCSM4 when AMOC collapses. Our results suggest that a substantially weakened AMOC is the main driver leading to the EASM, which is less affected by SH circulation in the future warmer climate.

Standard for Ground Vehicle Mobility

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-02-01

Zone Dry climates (2), humid mesothermal (3), See Appendix A humid microthermal (4), undifferentiated highland (6) Condition Dry, wet, snow See...represent the Dry, the Humid Mesothermal, and the Humid Microthermal climate zones, respectively. Scenarios ERDC-GSL was sponsored by WARSIM to...Coast D. Humid Microthermal Climates Humid Continental, Warm Summer, Humid Continental, Cool Summer, Sub-Arctic E. Polar Climates Tundra, Ice Caps F

Unexpected consequences of a drier world: evidence that delay in late summer rains biases the population sex ratio of an insect.

PubMed

Bonal, Raul; Hernández, Marisa; Espelta, Josep M; Muñoz, Alberto; Aparicio, José M

2015-09-01

The complexity of animal life histories makes it difficult to predict the consequences of climate change on their populations. In this paper, we show, for the first time, that longer summer drought episodes, such as those predicted for the dry Mediterranean region under climate change, may bias insect population sex ratio. Many Mediterranean organisms, like the weevil Curculio elephas, become active again after summer drought. This insect depends on late summer rainfall to soften the soil and allow adult emergence from their underground refuges. We found that, as in many protandric species, more C. elephas females emerged later in the season. Male emergence timing was on average earlier and also more dependent on the beginning of late summer rainfall. When these rains were delayed, the observed weevil sex ratio was biased towards females. So far, the effects of global warming on animal sex ratios has been reported for temperature-dependent sex determination in reptiles. Our results show that rainfall timing can also bias the sex ratio in an insect, and highlight the need for keeping a phenological perspective to predict the consequences of climate change. We must consider not just the magnitude of the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall but also the effects of their timing.

Unexpected consequences of a drier world: evidence that delay in late summer rains biases the population sex ratio of an insect

PubMed Central

Bonal, Raul; Hernández, Marisa; Espelta, Josep M.; Muñoz, Alberto; Aparicio, José M.

2015-01-01

The complexity of animal life histories makes it difficult to predict the consequences of climate change on their populations. In this paper, we show, for the first time, that longer summer drought episodes, such as those predicted for the dry Mediterranean region under climate change, may bias insect population sex ratio. Many Mediterranean organisms, like the weevil Curculio elephas, become active again after summer drought. This insect depends on late summer rainfall to soften the soil and allow adult emergence from their underground refuges. We found that, as in many protandric species, more C. elephas females emerged later in the season. Male emergence timing was on average earlier and also more dependent on the beginning of late summer rainfall. When these rains were delayed, the observed weevil sex ratio was biased towards females. So far, the effects of global warming on animal sex ratios has been reported for temperature-dependent sex determination in reptiles. Our results show that rainfall timing can also bias the sex ratio in an insect, and highlight the need for keeping a phenological perspective to predict the consequences of climate change. We must consider not just the magnitude of the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall but also the effects of their timing. PMID:26473046

Variation in the Asian monsoon intensity and dry-wet condition since the Little Ice Age in central China revealed by an aragonite stalagmite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.-J.; Yuan, D.-X.; Li, H.-C.; Cheng, H.; Li, T.-Y.; Edwards, R. L.; Lin, Y.-S.; Qin, J.-M.; Tang, W.; Zhao, Z.-Y.; Mii, H.-S.

2014-04-01

Highlight: this paper focuses on the climate variability in central China since 1300 AD, involving: 1. A well-dated, 1.5 year resolution stalagmite δ18O record from Lianhua Cave, central China; 2. Links of the δ18O record with regional dry-wet condition, monsoon intensity, and temperature over eastern China; 3. Correlations among drought events in the Lianhua record, solar irradiation, and ENSO index. We present a highly precisely 230Th/U dated, 1.5 year resolution δ18O record of an aragonite stalagmite (LHD1) collected from Lianhua Cave in Wuling mountain area of central China. The comparison of the δ18O record with the local instrumental record and historical documents exhibits at least 15 drought events in the Wuling mountain and adjacent areas during the Little Ice Age, in which some of them were corresponding to megadrought events in the broad Asian monsoonal region of China. Thus, the stalagmite δ18O record reveals variations in the summer monsoon precipitation and dry-wet condition in Wuling mountain area. The eastern China temperature varied with the solar activity, showing higher temperature under stronger solar irradiation which produces stronger summer monsoon. During Maunder, Dalton and 1900 sunspot minima, more severe drought events occurred, indicating weakening of the summer monsoon when solar activity decreased on decadal time scales. On interannual time scale, dry conditions in the studying area were prevailing under El Niño condition, which is also supported by the spectrum analysis. Hence, our record illustrates the linkage of Asian summer monsoon precipitation to solar irradiation and ENSO: wetter condition under stronger summer monsoon during warm periods and vice versa; During cold periods, the Walker circulation will shift toward central Pacific under El Niño condition, resulting further weakening of Asian summer monsoon. However, the δ18O of LHD1 record is positively correlated with temperature after ~1940 AD which is opposite to the

Impact of climate warming-induced increase in drought stress on successional dynamic of a coniferous forest within a dry inner Alpine environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuster, R.; Zeisler, B.; Oberhuber, W.

2012-04-01

Climate sensitivity of tree growth will effect the development of forest ecosystems under a warmer and drier climate by changing species composition and inducing shifts in forest distribution. We applied dendroclimatological techniques to determine impact of climate warming on radial stem growth of three native and widespread coniferous tree species of the central Austrian Alps (Norway spruce, Picea abies; European larch, Larix decidua; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris), which grow intermixed at dry-mesic sites within a dry inner Alpine environment (750 m a.s.l., Tyrol, Austria). Time series of annual increments were developed from > 250 saplings and mature trees. Radial growth response to recent climate warming was explored by means of moving response functions (MRF) and evaluation of trends in basal area increment (BAI) for the period 1911 - 2009. Climate-growth relationships revealed significant differences among species in response to water availability. While precipitation in May - June favoured radial growth of spruce and larch, Scots pine growth mainly depended on April - May precipitation. Spruce growth was most sensitive to May - June temperature (inverse relationship). Although MRF coefficients indicated increasing drought sensitivity of all species, which is most likely related to intensified belowground competition for scarce water with increasing stand density and higher evapotranspiration rates due to climate warming, recent BAI trends strikingly differed among species. While BAI of larch was distinctly declining, spruce showed steadily increasing BAI and quite constant BAI was maintained in drought adapted Scots pine, although at lowest level of all species. Furthermore, more favourable growing conditions of spruce in recent decades are indicated by scattered natural regeneration and higher growth rates of younger trees during first decades of their lifespan. Because human interference and wildlife stock is negligible within the study area, results

Warming and the dependence of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) establishment on summer soil moisture within and above its current elevation range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moyes, Andrew B.; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.; Kueppers, Lara M.

2013-01-01

Continued changes in climate are projected to alter the geographic distributions of plant species, in part by affecting where individuals can establish from seed. We tested the hypothesis that warming promotes uphill redistribution of subalpine tree populations by reducing cold limitation at high elevation and enhancing drought stress at low elevation. We seeded limber pine (Pinus flexilis) into plots with combinations of infrared heating and water addition treatments, at sites positioned in lower subalpine forest, the treeline ecotone, and alpine tundra. In 2010, first-year seedlings were assessed for physiological performance and survival over the snow-free growing season. Seedlings emerged in midsummer, about 5–8 weeks after snowmelt. Low temperature was not observed to limit seedling photosynthesis or respiration between emergence and October, and thus experimental warming did not appear to reduce cold limitation at high elevation. Instead, gas exchange and water potential from all sites indicated a prevailing effect of summer moisture stress on photosynthesis and carbon balance. Infrared heaters raised soil growing degree days (base 5 °C, p p 3 m-3 consistently corresponded with moderate and severe indications of drought stress in midday stem water potential, stomatal conductance, photosynthesis, and respiration. Seedling survival was greater in watered plots than in heated plots (p = 0.01), and negatively related to soil growing degree days and duration of exposure to θ 3 m-3 in a stepwise linear regression model (p < 0.0001). We concluded that seasonal moisture stress and high soil surface temperature imposed a strong limitation to limber pine seedling establishment across a broad elevation gradient, including at treeline, and that these limitations are likely to be enhanced by further climate warming.

Contribution of Sand-Associated Enterococci to Dry Weather Water Quality

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Culturable enterococci and a suite of environmental variables were collected during a predominantly dry summer at a beach impacted by nonpoint source pollution. These data were used to evaluate sands as a source of enterococci to nearshore waters, and to assess the relationship between environmental factors and dry-weather enterococci abundance. Best-fit multiple linear regressions used environmental variables to explain more than half of the observed variation in enterococci in water and dry sands. Notably, during dry weather the abundance of enterococci in dry sands at the mean high-tide line was significantly positively related to sand moisture content (ranging from <1–4%), and the daily mean ENT in water could be predicted by a linear regression with turbidity alone. Temperature was also positively correlated with ENT abundance in this study, which may indicate an important role of seasonal warming in temperate regions. Inundation by spring tides was the primary rewetting mechanism that sustained culturable enterococci populations in high-tide sands. Tidal forcing modulated the abundance of enterococci in the water, as both turbidity and enterococci were elevated during ebb and flood tides. The probability of samples violating the single-sample maximum was significantly greater when collected during periods with increased tidal range: spring ebb and flood tides. Tidal forcing also affected groundwater mixing zones, mobilizing enterococci from sand to water. These data show that routine monitoring programs using discrete enterococci measurements may be biased by tides and other environmental factors, providing a flawed basis for beach closure decisions. PMID:25479559

Contribution of sand-associated enterococci to dry weather water quality.

PubMed

Halliday, Elizabeth; Ralston, David K; Gast, Rebecca J

2015-01-06

Culturable enterococci and a suite of environmental variables were collected during a predominantly dry summer at a beach impacted by nonpoint source pollution. These data were used to evaluate sands as a source of enterococci to nearshore waters, and to assess the relationship between environmental factors and dry-weather enterococci abundance. Best-fit multiple linear regressions used environmental variables to explain more than half of the observed variation in enterococci in water and dry sands. Notably, during dry weather the abundance of enterococci in dry sands at the mean high-tide line was significantly positively related to sand moisture content (ranging from <1-4%), and the daily mean ENT in water could be predicted by a linear regression with turbidity alone. Temperature was also positively correlated with ENT abundance in this study, which may indicate an important role of seasonal warming in temperate regions. Inundation by spring tides was the primary rewetting mechanism that sustained culturable enterococci populations in high-tide sands. Tidal forcing modulated the abundance of enterococci in the water, as both turbidity and enterococci were elevated during ebb and flood tides. The probability of samples violating the single-sample maximum was significantly greater when collected during periods with increased tidal range: spring ebb and flood tides. Tidal forcing also affected groundwater mixing zones, mobilizing enterococci from sand to water. These data show that routine monitoring programs using discrete enterococci measurements may be biased by tides and other environmental factors, providing a flawed basis for beach closure decisions.

Physics Meets Biology (LBNL Summer Lecture Series)

ScienceCinema

Chu, Steven

2018-05-09

Summer Lecture Series 2006: If scientists could take advantage of the awesomely complex and beautiful functioning of biology's natural molecular machines, their potential for application in many disciplines would be incalculable. Nobel Laureate and Director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Steve Chu explores Possible solutions to global warming and its consequences.

Studying the Inter-Hemispheric Coupling During Polar Summer Mesosphere Warming in 2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Richard A.; Feofilov, Artem; Pesnell, William; Kutepov, Alexander A.

2010-01-01

It has been found that the northern summer polar mesopause region in 2002 was warmer than normal and of shorter duration than for other years analyzed. Theoretical studies have implied that the abnormal characteristics of this polar summer were generated by unusual dynamical processes occurring in the southern polar winter hemisphere. We have used data from the SABER instrument aboard the NASA TIMED Satellite to study these processes for polar summer periods of 2002-2009. For background, SABER is a broadband limb scanning radiometer that measures a large number of minor atmospheric constituents as well as pressure and temperature in the 13-110 km altitude range over most of the globe.We will use SABER temperature data to illustrate the correlated heating seen between the southern and northern hemispheres during June and July 2002. We will then describe the approach to study the wave characteristics of the atmospheric temperature profiles and demonstrate the features that were unique for 2002 compared to the other years.

College Warm-Up: Innovative Preparation for College.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hall, Benny

A summer program offered by Eastern Kentucky University to ease the transition to the college environment for high school seniors is described. The six-week program, called "College Warm-Up," involves seven hours of credit classes in English composition, academic orientation, and college reading and study skills. The academic orientation…

Carbon accumulation in a permafrost polygon peatland: steady long-term rates in spite of shifts between dry and wet conditions.

PubMed

Gao, Yang; Couwenberg, John

2015-02-01

Ice-wedge polygon peatlands contain a substantial part of the carbon stored in permafrost soils. However, little is known about their long-term carbon accumulation rates (CAR) in relation to shifts in vegetation and climate. We collected four peat profiles from one single polygon in NE Yakutia and cut them into contiguous 0.5 cm slices. Pollen density interpolation between AMS (14)C dated levels provided the time span contained in each of the sample slices, which--in combination with the volumetric carbon content--allowed for the reconstruction of CAR over decadal and centennial timescales. Vegetation representing dry palaeo-ridges and wet depressions was reconstructed with detailed micro- and macrofossil analysis. We found repeated shifts between wet and dry conditions during the past millennium. Dry ridges with associated permafrost growth originated during phases of (relatively) warm summer temperature and collapsed during relatively cold phases, illustrating the important role of vegetation and peat as intermediaries between ambient air temperature and the permafrost. The average long-term CAR across the four profiles was 10.6 ± 5.5 g C m(-2) yr(-1). Time-weighted mean CAR did not differ significantly between wet depression and dry ridge/hummock phases (10.6 ± 5.2 g C m(-2) yr(-1) and 10.3 ± 5.7 g C m(-2) yr(-1), respectively). Although we observed increased CAR in relation to warm shifts, we also found changes in the opposite direction and the highest CAR actually occurred during the Little Ice Age. In fact, CAR rather seems to be governed by strong internal feedback mechanisms and has roughly remained stable on centennial time scales. The absence of significant differences in CAR between dry ridge and wet depression phases suggests that recent warming and associated expansion of shrubs will not affect long-term rates of carbon burial in ice-wedge polygon peatlands. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability during 2014 and 2015 and associated Indo-Pacific upper ocean temperature patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kakatkar, Rashmi; Gnanaseelan, C.; Chowdary, J. S.; Parekh, Anant; Deepa, J. S.

2018-02-01

In this study, factors responsible for the deficit Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall in 2014 and 2015 and the ability of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology-Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (IITM-GODAS) in representing the oceanic features are examined. IITM-GODAS has been used to provide initial conditions for seasonal forecast in India during 2014 and 2015. The years 2014 and 2015 witnessed deficit ISM rainfall but were evolved from two entirely different preconditions over Pacific. This raises concern over the present understanding of the role of Pacific Ocean on ISM variability. Analysis reveals that the mechanisms associated with the rainfall deficit over the Indian Subcontinent are different in the two years. It is found that remote forcing in summer of 2015 due to El Niño is mostly responsible for the deficit monsoon rainfall through changes in Walker circulation and large-scale subsidence. In the case of the summer of 2014, both local circulation with anomalous anticyclone over central India and intrusion of mid-latitude dry winds from north have contributed for the deficit rainfall. In addition to the above, Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) and remote forcing from Pacific Ocean also modulated the ISM rainfall. It is observed that Pacific SST warming has extended westward in 2014, making it a basin scale warming unlike the strong El Niño year 2015. The eastern equatorial Indian Ocean is anomalously warmer than west in summer of 2014, and vice versa in 2015. These differences in SST in both tropical Pacific and TIO have considerable impact on ISM rainfall in 2014 and 2015. The study reveals that initializing coupled forecast models with proper upper ocean temperature over the Indo-Pacific is therefore essential for improved model forecast. It is important to note that the IITM-GODAS which assimilates only array for real-time geostrophic oceanography (ARGO) temperature and salinity profiles could capture most of the

Characterizing the Seasonality and Spatiotemporal Evolution of the U.S. Warming Hole

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partridge, T.; Winter, J.; Osterberg, E. C.; Magilligan, F. J.; Hyndman, D. W.; Kendall, A. D.

2017-12-01

Regions of the Eastern United States have experienced periods of cooling during the last half of the twentieth century inconsistent with broader global warming trends. While there have been a variety of mechanisms proposed to explain this "warming hole", the spatial and temporal definitions of the warming hole often differ across studies, potentially obfuscating the physical drivers leading to its existence. Further, a broad consensus on the causality of the warming hole has yet to be reached. We use daily temperature data from the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) to conduct a thorough characterization of the spatiotemporal evolution and seasonality of regional cooling across the Eastern U.S., and define a dynamic warming hole as the region of most persistent cooling. We find that the location of the dynamic warming hole varies by season from the Midwestern U.S. during summer to the Southeastern U.S. during winter. In addition, the cool period associated with the warming hole is characterized by an abrupt decrease in maximum temperature (Tx) and a decline in minimum temperature (Tn) around 1957. While average Tn values in the warming hole recover after the decline and increase from the mid 1960's to present, Tx values for the second half of the 20th century remain below observed values from the first half of the century. To explore large-scale atmospheric drivers of the dynamic warming hole, we correlate SST teleconnection and regional atmospheric circulation indices with seasonal temperature values from 1901-1957 and 1958-2015. We show that 1957 marks a shift, where winter temperatures in the warming hole become more correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and less correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Summer warming hole temperatures become less correlated with the NAO post 1957 and are strongly negatively correlated with precipitation.

A possible cause of the AO polarity reversal from winter to summer in 2010 and its relation to hemispheric extreme summer weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otomi, Y.; Tachibana, Y.; Nakamura, T.

2012-12-01

In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia, Europe and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO). In contrast, in winter 2009/2010, the continent suffered from anomalously cold weather associated with a record-breaking negative AO. The winter-to-summer of the AO index during 2009/2010 evolved as follows: a strongly negative wintertime AO index continued until May, after which it abruptly changed, becoming strongly positive in July and continuing so until the beginning of August. The abrupt change of the AO index from strongly negative to strongly positive in 2010 thus corresponded to the change from the abnormally cold winter of 2009/2010 to the abnormally hot summer of 2010, which shows that the AO index is a good indicator of abnormal weather on a planetary-scale, and that extra-seasonal prediction of the AO is a key to long-term forecasting. In this study, we therefore aimed to examine the cause of the 2010 change in the AO index from strongly negative to strongly positive. We suggest that an oceanic memory of the strongly negative wintertime AO may have influenced the strongly positive summertime AO. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern which is warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes. The strongly negative wintertime AO would cause the warm SST anomaly in this region. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. In May and June, the heat flux anomaly changed from downward to upward in the tropics, and in July and August, the center of the upward anomaly moved westward. The area of the upward heat flux anomaly coincided with the area of the warm SST anomaly from May to August. The numerical model experiment showed that the tripolar SST pattern resulted in an

A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Williams, A. Park

2011-01-01

Observations and simulations link anthropogenic greenhouse and aerosol emissions with rapidly increasing Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Over the past 60 years, the Indian Ocean warmed two to three times faster than the central tropical Pacific, extending the tropical warm pool to the west by ~40° longitude (>4,000 km). This propensity toward rapid warming in the Indian Ocean has been the dominant mode of interannual variability among SSTs throughout the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (55°E–140°W) since at least 1948, explaining more variance than anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the atmosphere, the primary mode of variability has been a corresponding trend toward greatly increased convection and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean. The temperature and rainfall increases in this region have produced a westward extension of the western, ascending branch of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Diabatic heating due to increased mid-tropospheric water vapor condensation elicits a westward atmospheric response that sends an easterly flow of dry air aloft toward eastern Africa. In recent decades (1980–2009), this response has suppressed convection over tropical eastern Africa, decreasing precipitation during the ‘long-rains’ season of March–June. This trend toward drought contrasts with projections of increased rainfall in eastern Africa and more ‘El Niño-like’ conditions globally by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Increased Indian Ocean SSTs appear likely to continue to strongly modulate the Warm Pool circulation, reducing precipitation in eastern Africa, regardless of whether the projected trend in ENSO is realized. These results have important food security implications, informing agricultural development, environmental conservation, and water resource planning.

Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.

2017-01-01

Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.

Diving through the thermal window: implications for a warming world

PubMed Central

Campbell, Hamish A.; Dwyer, Ross G.; Gordos, Matthew; Franklin, Craig E.

2010-01-01

Population decline and a shift in the geographical distribution of some ectothermic animals have been attributed to climatic warming. Here, we show that rises in water temperature of a few degrees, while within the thermal window for locomotor performance, may be detrimental to diving behaviour in air-breathing ectotherms (turtles, crocodilians, marine iguanas, amphibians, snakes and lizards). Submergence times and internal and external body temperature were remotely recorded from freshwater crocodiles (Crocodylus johnstoni) while they free-ranged throughout their natural habitat in summer and winter. During summer, the crocodiles' mean body temperature was 5.2 ± 0.1°C higher than in winter and the largest proportion of total dive time was composed of dive durations approximately 15 min less than in winter. Diving beyond 40 min during summer required the crocodiles to exponentially increase the time they spent on the surface after the dive, presumably to clear anaerobic debt. The relationship was not as significant in winter, even though a greater proportion of dives were of a longer duration, suggesting that diving lactate threshold (DLT) was reduced in summer compared with winter. Additional evidence for a reduced DLT in summer was derived from the stronger influence body mass exerted upon dive duration, compared to winter. The results demonstrate that the higher summer body temperature increased oxygen demand during the dive, implying that thermal acclimatization of the diving metabolic rate was inadequate. If the study findings are common among air-breathing diving ectotherms, then long-term warming of the aquatic environment may be detrimental to behavioural function and survivorship. PMID:20610433

A Phenological Timetable of Oak Growth under Experimental Drought and Air Warming

PubMed Central

Kuster, Thomas M.; Dobbertin, Matthias; Günthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S.; Schaub, Marcus; Arend, Matthias

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to increase temperature and decrease summer precipitation in Central Europe. Little is known about how warming and drought will affect phenological patterns of oaks, which are considered to possess excellent adaptability to these climatic changes. Here, we investigated bud burst and intra-annual shoot growth of Quercus robur, Q. petraea and Q. pubescens grown on two different forest soils and exposed to air warming and drought. Phenological development was assessed over the course of three growing seasons. Warming advanced bud burst by 1–3 days °C−1 and led to an earlier start of intra-annual shoot growth. Despite this phenological shift, total time span of annual growth and shoot biomass were not affected. Drought changed the frequency and intensity of intra-annual shoot growth and advanced bud burst in the subsequent spring of a severe summer drought by 1–2 days. After re-wetting, shoot growth recovered within a few days, demonstrating the superior drought tolerance of this tree genus. Our findings show that phenological patterns of oaks are modified by warming and drought but also suggest that ontogenetic factors and/or limitations of water and nutrients counteract warming effects on the biomass and the entire span of annual shoot growth. PMID:24586988

Comparison of Distal Limb Warming With Fluidotherapy and Warm Water Immersion for Mild Hypothermia Rewarming.

PubMed

Kumar, Parveen; McDonald, Gerren K; Chitkara, Radhika; Steinman, Alan M; Gardiner, Phillip F; Giesbrecht, Gordon G

2015-09-01

The purpose of the study was to determine the effectiveness of Fluidotherapy rewarming through the distal extremities for mildly hypothermic, vigorously shivering subjects. Fluidotherapy is a dry heat modality in which cellulose particles are suspended by warm air circulation. Seven subjects (2 female) were cooled on 3 occasions in 8˚C water for 60 minutes, or to a core temperature of 35°C. They were then dried and rewarmed in a seated position by 1) shivering only; 2) Fluidotherapy applied to the distal extremities (46 ± 1°C, mean ± SD); or 3) water immersion of the distal extremities (44 ± 1°C). The order of rewarming followed a balanced design. Esophageal temperature, skin temperature, heart rate, oxygen consumption, and heat flux were measured. The warm water produced the highest rewarming rate, 6.1°C·h(-1), 95% CI: 5.3-6.9, compared with Fluidotherapy, 2.2°C·h(-1), 95% CI: 1.4-3.0, and shivering only, 2.0°C·h(-1), 95% CI: 1.2-2.8. The Fluidotherapy and warm water conditions increased skin temperature and inhibited shivering heat production, thus reducing metabolic heat production (166 ± 42 W and 181 ± 45 W, respectively), compared with shivering only (322 ± 142 W). Warm water provided a significantly higher net heat gain (398.0 ± 52 W) than shivering only (288.4 ± 115 W). Fluidotherapy was not as effective as warm water for rewarming mildly hypothermic subjects. Although Fluidotherapy is more portable and technically simpler, it provides a lower rate of rewarming that is similar to shivering only. It does help decrease shivering heat production, lowering energy expenditure and cardiac work, and could be considered in a hospital setting, if convenient. Copyright © 2015 Wilderness Medical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Irrigation enhances local warming with greater nocturnal warming effects than daytime cooling effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xing; Jeong, Su-Jong

2018-02-01

To meet the growing demand for food, land is being managed to be more productive using agricultural intensification practices, such as the use of irrigation. Understanding the specific environmental impacts of irrigation is a critical part of using it as a sustainable way to provide food security. However, our knowledge of irrigation effects on climate is still limited to daytime effects. This is a critical issue to define the effects of irrigation on warming related to greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study shows that irrigation led to an increasing temperature (0.002 °C year-1) by enhancing nighttime warming (0.009 °C year-1) more than daytime cooling (-0.007 °C year-1) during the dry season from 1961-2004 over the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of largest irrigated areas in the world. By implementing irrigation processes in regional climate model simulations, the consistent warming effect of irrigation on nighttime temperatures over the NCP was shown to match observations. The intensive nocturnal warming is attributed to energy storage in the wetter soil during the daytime, which contributed to the nighttime surface warming. Our results suggest that irrigation could locally amplify the warming related to GHGs, and this effect should be taken into account in future climate change projections.

Mid-Miocene C4 expansion on the Chinese Loess Plateau under an enhanced Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Jibao; Liu, Zhonghui; An, Zhisheng; Liu, Weiguo; Zhou, Weijian; Qiang, Xiaoke; Lu, Fengyan

2018-06-01

Atmospheric CO2 starvation, aridity, fire and warm season precipitation have all been proposed as major contributors to C4 plant expansion during the Late Miocene. However, the driving factors responsible for the distribution of C4 plants in the early and mid-Miocene still remain enigmatic. Here we report pedogenic carbon and oxygen isotope data (δ13Cpedo, δ18Opedo), along with magnetic susceptibility (MS) results, from the Zhuang Lang drilling core on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP). Elevated δ13Cpedo values (>-5‰) signal a prominent C4 expansion and substantially increased δ18Opedo and MS values indicate enhanced Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation. Both of these conditions are observed during the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO), 14.5-17 million years ago. The marked increase in C4 plants, associated with warm temperatures and increased precipitation, strongly suggests the control of an enhanced ASM on C4 expansion on the CLP during the MMCO. This finding contrasts with the late-Miocene C4 expansion associated with cooling and drying conditions observed in low latitudes and argues for regionally specific control of C4 plant distribution/expansion.

Think Warm Thoughts: Plan Ahead for Summertime Information Literacy Programs! The College Connection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kasowitz-Scheer, Abby

2009-01-01

It's winter! While it is frosty outside, one can at least think warm thoughts by starting now to plan ahead for summer information literacy programs. This article is designed to provide some ideas for planning next summer's reading, sleuthing, and research programs. It features a variety of programs organized by academic librarians this past…

Poleward shift and weakening of summer season synoptic activity over India in a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravindran, A. M.; Sandeep, S.; Boos, W. R.; TP, S.; Praveen, V.

2017-12-01

One of the main components of the Indian summer monsoon is the presence of low intensity cyclonic systems popularly known as Low Pressure Systems (LPS), which contribute more than half of the precipitation received over the fertile Central Indian region. An average of 13 (±2.5) storms develop each boreal summer, with most originating over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and adjoining land. These systems typically follow a north-west track along the monsoon trough. Despite its significance, the future variability of these storms is not studied, due to the inadequate representation of these systems in current generation climate models. A series of numerical experiments are performed here using the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) with a horizontal grid spacing of 50 km globally to simulate these rain-bearing systems. One set of simulations represents the historical (HIST) period and the other a late 21st century climate scenario based on the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). Four ensemble members of these simulations are run, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) taken from different CMIP5 GCMs selected for their skill in simulating the Indian monsoon. In addition, ten ensemble members of `decadal' experiments are run for both HIST and RCP8.5 to assess model uncertainty, in which the model is forced with annual cycles of decadal mean SSTs. We show that the strength of monsoon LPS activity would decline as much as 50% by the end of the 21st century, under business as usual emission scenario. The overall reduction in the LPS activity is contributed by a 60% decrease in the frequency of storms over the Bay of Bengal, while the weaker systems that form over the land has increased 10% in a warmer climate. Further analysis suggests that a relatively slower rate of warming over the Bay of Bengal compared to the surrounding regions has resulted in an enhanced moist stability over the main genesis region of LPS, which in turn suppressed the growth of

Human mortality impacts of the 2015 summer heat spells in Slovakia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Výberči, Dalibor; Labudová, Lívia; Eštóková, Milada; Faško, Pavol; Trizna, Milan

2017-07-01

In 2015, Central Europe experienced an unusually warm summer season. For a great majority of climatic stations around Slovakia, it had been the warmest summer ever recorded over their entire instrumental observation period. In this study, we investigate the mortality effects of hot days' sequences during that particular summer on the Slovak population. In consideration of the range of available mortality data, the position of 2015 is analysed within the years 1996-2015. Over the given 20-year period, the summer heat spells of 2015 were by far the most severe from a meteorological point of view, and clearly the deadliest with the total of almost 540 excess deaths. In terms of impacts, an extraordinary 10-day August heat spell was especially remarkable. The massive lethal effects of heat would have likely been even more serious under normal circumstances, since the number of premature deaths appeared to be partially reduced due to a non-standard mortality pattern in the first quarter of the year. The heat spells of the extremely warm summer of 2015 in Slovakia are notable not just for their short-term response in mortality. It appears that in a combination with the preceding strong influenza season, they subsequently affected mortality conditions in the country in the following months up until the end of the year. The impacts described above were rather different for selected population subgroups (men and women, the elderly). Both separately and as a part of the annual mortality cycle, the 2015 summer heat spells may represent a particularly valuable source of information for public health.

The Tropical Western Hemisphere Warm Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Enfield, D. B.

2002-12-01

The paper describes and examines variability of the tropical Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) of water warmer than 28.5oC. The WHWP is the second-largest tropical warm pool on Earth. Unlike the Eastern Hemisphere warm pool in the western Pacific, which straddles the equator, the WHWP is entirely north of the equator. At various stages of development the WHWP extends over parts of the eastern North Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the western tropical North Atlantic. It has a large seasonal cycle and its interannual fluctuations of area and intensity are significant. Surface heat fluxes warm the WHWP through the boreal spring to an annual maximum of SST and WHWP area in the late summer/early fall, associated with eastern North Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activities and rainfall from northern South America to the southern tier of the United States. Observations suggest that a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback operating through longwave radiation and associated cloudiness seems to operate in the WHWP. During winter preceding large warm pool, there is an alteration of the Walker and Hadley circulation cells that serves as a "tropospheric bridge" for transferring Pacific ENSO effects to the Atlantic sector and inducing initial warming of warm pool. Associated with the warm SST anomalies is a decrease in sea level pressure anomalies and an anomalous increase in atmospheric convection and cloudiness. The increase in convective activity and cloudiness results in less net longwave radiation loss from the sea surface, which then reinforces SST anomalies.

Summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean during ENSO in the NCEP climate forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdary, J. S.; Chaudhari, H. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Suryachandra Rao, A.; Sreenivas, P.; Pokhrel, S.; Singh, P.

2014-04-01

This study investigates the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and their relationship with the Indian summer monsoon in the coupled general circulation model climate forecast system (CFS). The model shows good skill in simulating the impact of El Niño over the Indian Oceanic rim during its decay phase (the summer following peak phase of El Niño). Summer surface circulation patterns during the developing phase of El Niño are more influenced by local Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the model unlike in observations. Eastern TIO cooling similar to that of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a dominant model feature in summer. This anomalous SST pattern therefore is attributed to the tendency of the model to simulate more frequent IOD events. On the other hand, in the model baroclinic response to the diabatic heating anomalies induced by the El Niño related warm SSTs is weak, resulting in reduced zonal extension of the Rossby wave response. This is mostly due to weak eastern Pacific summer time SST anomalies in the model during the developing phase of El Niño as compared to observations. Both eastern TIO cooling and weak SST warming in El Niño region combined together undermine the ENSO teleconnections to the TIO and south Asia regions. The model is able to capture the spatial patterns of SST, circulation and precipitation well during the decay phase of El Niño over the Indo-western Pacific including the typical spring asymmetric mode and summer basin-wide warming in TIO. The model simulated El Niño decay one or two seasons later, resulting long persistent warm SST and circulation anomalies mainly over the southwest TIO. In response to the late decay of El Niño, Ekman pumping shows two maxima over the southern TIO. In conjunction with this unrealistic Ekman pumping, westward propagating Rossby waves display two peaks, which play key role in the long-persistence of the TIO warming in the model (for more than a

Air-drying of Robusta eucalyptus lumber

Treesearch

Roger G. Skolmen

1964-01-01

A study of air-drying 4/4 Eucalyptus robusta lumber in Hilo, Hawaii showed that during typical summer weather it can be dried to below 20 percent moisture content in 2-1/2 months. Grade reduction in 36 percent of the lumber was caused by end splits, insect damage, warp, and surface checking.

Warm-adapted microbial communities enhance their carbon-use efficiency in warmed soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousk, Johannes; Frey, Serita

2017-04-01

negligible changes in Topt, Tmin and Q10 for respiration. When these physiological changes were scaled with soil temperature data to estimate real-time variation in situ during three years, the warm-adaptation resulted in elevated microbial CUEs during summer temperatures in warm-adapted communities and reduced microbial CUEs during winter temperatures. By comparing simulated microbial CUEs in cold-adapted communities exposed to warmed conditions to microbial CUEs in the warm-adapted communities exposed to those temperatures, we could demonstrate that the shifts towards warm-adapted microbial communities had selected for elevated microbial CUEs for the full range of in situ soil temperatures during three years. Our results suggest that microbial adaptation to warming will enhance microbial CUEs, shifting their balance of C use from respiration to biomass production. If our estimates scale to ecosystem level, this would imply that warm-adapted microbial communities will ultimately have the potential to store more C in soil than their cold-adapted counter parts could when exposed to warmer temperatures.

Warming and Acidification Induced Mass Mortality of a Coastal Keystone predator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melzner, F.; Findeisen, U.

2016-02-01

The Baltic Sea is characterized by low salinity and pronounced fluctuations in pCO2. On-line monitoring of pCO2 in 2014 in Kiel Fjord demonstrated occurrence of peak values of >2,000 µatm in summer and autumn and average values >750 µatm. We assessed the impacts of elevated temperature (ambient temperature, ambient +3°C) and pCO2 (500, 1,500, 2,400 µatm) on the keystone species Asterias rubens in a fully crossed long - term experiment (N=5 replicate tanks each, 1 year duration). During spring and early summer (February - June), high temperature animals ingested significantly more food and spawned significantly earlier (April 30th) than ambient acclimated animals (May 23rd). Elevated pCO2 led to comparatively minor reductions in food intake and scope for growth during that period. During summer (June - August), elevated temperature >25°C caused negative energy budgets and >95% mortality in the warm acclimated groups, while mortality was low in the ambient temperature groups. Our results indicate that A. rubens may benefit from increased temperature during colder months, yet dramatically suffer during summer heat waves in warm years. Meaningful experimental approaches to assess species vulnerability to climate change need to encompass all seasons and realistic abiotic stressor levels.

Coherent climate anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific in post-El Niño summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosaka, Y.; Xie, S. P.; DU, Y.; Hu, K.; Chowdary, J. S.; Huang, G.

2016-12-01

El Niño typically peaks in boreal winter, and the associated equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) signal dissipates before subsequent summer. Its impact, however, outlasts until boreal summer in the Indo-western Pacific, featuring basin-wide Indian Ocean warming and tropical Northwestern Pacific cooling accompanied by the Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern with surface anomalous anticyclone (AAC) extending from the Philippine Sea to the northern Indian Ocean. Two formation mechanisms have been proposed for these climate anomalies in post-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) summer. One hypothesis invokes the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback in the tropical Northwestern Pacific, while the other points to inter-basin feedback between the Indian Ocean and tropical Northwestern Pacific. Based on a coupled model experiment, we propose an ocean-atmosphere coupled mode that synthesizes the two mechanisms. This Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) mode evolves seasonally from spring to summer under seasonal migration of background state. In spring, the WES feedback is operative in association with the tropical Northwestern Pacific cooling, while in summer the Indian Ocean warming and the inter-basin interaction maintains the AAC. While the IPOC mode is independent of ENSO in mechanism, ENSO can drive this mode in its decay phase. This excitation, however, has undergone substantial interdecadal modulations, depending on ENSO amplitude and persistence of Indian Ocean warming. The ENSO-IPOC correlation is high after the mid-1970s and at the beginning of the 20th century, but low in between.

Role of Ocean Initial Conditions to Diminish Dry Bias in the Seasonal Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: A Case Study Using Climate Forecast System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koul, Vimal; Parekh, Anant; Srinivas, G.; Kakatkar, Rashmi; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2018-03-01

Coupled models tend to underestimate Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall over most of the Indian subcontinent. Present study demonstrates that a part of dry bias is arising from the discrepancies in Oceanic Initial Conditions (OICs). Two hindcast experiments are carried out using Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) for summer monsoons of 2012-2014 in which two different OICs are utilized. With respect to first experiment (CTRL), second experiment (AcSAL) differs by two aspects: usage of high-resolution atmospheric forcing and assimilation of only ARGO observed temperature and salinity profiles for OICs. Assessment of OICs indicates that the quality of OICs is enhanced due to assimilation of actual salinity profiles. Analysis reveals that AcSAL experiment showed 10% reduction in the dry bias over the Indian land region during the ISM compared to CTRL. This improvement is consistently apparent in each month and is highest for June. The better representation of upper ocean thermal structure of tropical oceans at initial stage supports realistic upper ocean stability and mixing. Which in fact reduced the dominant cold bias over the ocean, feedback to air-sea interactions and land sea thermal contrast resulting better representation of monsoon circulation and moisture transport. This reduced bias of tropospheric moisture and temperature over the Indian land mass and also produced better tropospheric temperature gradient over land as well as ocean. These feedback processes reduced the dry bias in the ISM rainfall. Study concludes that initializing the coupled models with realistic OICs can reduce the underestimation of ISM rainfall prediction.

Physiological Responses of Beech and Sessile Oak in a Natural Mixed Stand During a Dry Summer

PubMed Central

RAFTOYANNIS, YANNIS; RADOGLOU, KALLIOPI

2002-01-01

Responses of CO2 assimilation and stomatal conductance to decreasing leaf water potential, and to environmental factors, were analysed in a mixed natural stand of sessile oak (Quercus petraea ssp. medwediewii) and beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in Greece during the exceptionally dry summer of 1998. Seasonal courses of leaf water potential were similar for both species, whereas mean net photosynthesis and stomatal conductance were always higher in sessile oak than in beech. The relationship between net photosynthesis and stomatal conductance was strong for both species. Sessile oak had high rates of photosynthesis even under very low leaf water potentials and high air temperatures, whereas the photosynthetic rate of beech decreased at low water potentials. Diurnal patterns were similar in both species but sessile oak had higher rates of CO2 assimilation than beech. Our results indicate that sessile oak is more tolerant of drought than beech, due, in part, to its maintenance of photosynthesis at low water potential. PMID:12102528

Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkhordarian, Armineh; von Storch, Hans; Zorita, Eduardo; Loikith, Paul C.; Mechoso, Carlos R.

2017-10-01

We investigate whether the recently observed trends in daily maximum and minimum near-surface air temperature (Tmax and Tmin, respectively) over South America (SA) are consistent with the simulated response of Tmin and Tmax to anthropogenic forcing. Results indicate that the recently observed warming in the dry seasons is well beyond the range of natural (internal) variability. In the wet season the natural modes of variability explain a substantial portion of Tmin and Tmax variability. We demonstrate that the large-scale component of greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is detectable in dry-seasonal warming. However, none of the global and regional climate change projections reproduce the observed warming of up to 0.6 K/Decade in Tmax in 1983-2012 over northern SA during the austral spring (SON). Thus, besides the global manifestation of GHG forcing, other external drivers have an imprint. Using aerosols-only forcing simulations, our results provide evidence that anthropogenic aerosols also have a detectable influence in SON and that the indirect effect of aerosols on cloud's lifetime is more compatible with the observed record. In addition, there is an increasing trend in the observed incoming solar radiation over northern SA in SON, which is larger than expected from natural (internal) variability alone. We further show that in the dry seasons the spread of projected trends based on the RCP4.5 scenario derived from 30 CMIP5 models encompasses the observed area-averaged trends in Tmin and Tmax. This may imply that the observed excessive warming in the dry seasons serve as an illustration of plausible future expected change in the region.

Volatile organic compound emissions from arctic vegetation highly responsive to experimental warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinnan, Riikka; Kramshøj, Magnus; Lindwall, Frida; Schollert, Michelle; Svendsen, Sarah H.; Valolahti, Hanna

2017-04-01

Arctic areas are experiencing amplified climate warming that proceeds twice as fast as the global temperature increase. The increasing temperature is already causing evident alterations, e.g. changes in the vegetation cover as well as thawing of permafrost. Climate warming and the concomitant biotic and abiotic changes are likely to have strong direct and indirect effects on emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from arctic vegetation. We used long-term field manipulation experiments in the Subarctic, Low Arctic and High Arctic to assess effects of climate change on VOC emissions from vegetation communities. In these experiments, we applied passive warming with open-top chambers alone and in combination with other experimental treatments in well-replicated experimental designs. Volatile emissions were sampled in situ by drawing air from plant enclosures and custom-built chambers into adsorbent cartridges, which were analyzed by thermal desorption and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry in laboratory. Emission increases by a factor of 2-5 were observed under experimental warming by only a few degrees, and the strong response seems universal for dry, mesic and wet ecosystems. In some cases, these vegetation community level responses were partly due to warming-induced increases in the VOC-emitting plant biomass, changes in species composition and the following increase in the amount of leaf litter (Valolahti et al. 2015). In other cases, the responses appeared before any vegetation changes took place (Lindwall et al. 2016) or even despite a decrease in plant biomass (Kramshøj et al. 2016). VOC emissions from arctic ecosystems seem more responsive to experimental warming than other ecosystem processes. We can thus expect large increases in future VOC emissions from this area due to the direct effects of temperature increase, and due to increasing plant biomass and a longer growing season. References Kramshøj M., Vedel-Petersen I., Schollert M., Rinnan �

Processes Controlling Baseflow and Climatic Warming Effects in Merced River, Sierra Nevada, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, F.; Conklin, M. H.; Shaw, G.; Bales, R. C.; Conrad, M. E.; Rice, R.

2006-12-01

Sources of streamflow in Merced River were determined using stable isotopes and chemical tracers in order to improve our understanding of hydrologic controls on streamflow and their relationship with climatic warming in the region. Samples were collected from streamflow, groundwater, and natural springs from 2003 to 2006. Both stable isotopes and specific conductivity in streamflow showed a strong seasonality, with lower values from April to July during the snowmelt season, higher values from August to October during dry season, and intermediate values from November to March during winter rainfall and snowfall. Two components controlling baseflow (streamflow from August to October) in the Upper Merced River were identified: shallow subsurface runoff from snowmelt infiltration and groundwater from fractured bedrock. Conductivity in baseflow increased rapidly with discharge, following a power law (R2 > 0.96, p < 0.05), and peaked in October, indicating that the contribution of shallow subsurface runoff to baseflow was significant but decreased rapidly from August to October. Baseflow appears to be very sensitive to the snowmelt timing and regime. From 1976 to 2005, during a period of increasing temperature in the region, streamflow tended to decrease significantly during October (p < 0.05) and increase during March (p < 0.05). However, total annual precipitation did not change significantly, indicating that the shift in baseflow discharge is a result of the early onset of snowmelt due to climatic warming. If climatic warming continues in the region, baseflow in the Sierra Nevada may continue decreasing and water supply may suffer increased stress during the late summer, high water-demand period.

Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharmila, S.; Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.

2015-01-01

In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21st century indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30 day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70 day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming

The role of spring precipitation deficits on European and North American summer heat wave activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowan, Tim; Hegerl, Gabi

2017-04-01

Heat waves are relatively short-term climate phenomena with potentially severe societal impacts, particularly on health, agriculture and the natural environment. In water-limited regions, increased heat wave activity over intra-decadal periods is often associated with protracted droughts, as observed over North America's Central and Southern Great Plains in the 1930s and 1950s, highlighting the importance of land surface-atmosphere feedbacks. Here we present an analysis of the covariability of spring precipitation deficit and summer heat waves for North America and Europe, the latter having experienced an increase in summer heat wave frequency since the 1950s (Perkins et al. 2012). Over the Great Plains summer heat waves are significantly earlier, longer and hotter if following dry rather than wet springs, with the mega-heat waves of the 1930s Dust Bowl decade an extreme example (e.g. Cowan et al. 2017). Similar relationships can be found in some parts of Europe for heat wave frequency and duration, namely Southern and Eastern Europe, although the heat wave timing and amplitude (i.e. the hottest events) appear less sensitive to spring drying. Climate model results investigating the relationship between heat waves and precipitation deficit in regions in Europe and North America will also be presented. It is necessary to pinpoint the causes of large decadal variations in heat wave metrics, as seen in the 1930s over North America and more recently across Central Europe, for event attribution purposes and to improve near-decadal prediction. The tight link between spring drought and summer heat waves will also be important for understanding the impacts of these climatic events and supports the development of compound event analysis techniques. References: Cowan, T., G. Hegerl, I. Colfescu, A. Purich and G. Boshcat (2016), Factors contributing to record-breaking heat waves over the Great Plains during the 1930s Dust Bowl. Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16

Hydroclimatological Processes in the Central American Dry Corridor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidalgo, H. G.; Duran-Quesada, A. M.; Amador, J. A.; Alfaro, E. J.; Mora, G.

2015-12-01

This work studies the hydroclimatological variability and the climatic precursors of drought in the Central American Dry Corridor (CADC), a subregion located in the Pacific coast of Southern Mexico and Central America. Droughts are frequent in the CADC, which is featured by a higher climatological aridity compared to the highlands and Caribbean coast of Central America. The CADC region presents large social vulnerability to hydroclimatological impacts originated from dry conditions, as there is a large part of population that depends on subsistance agriculture. The influence of large-scale climatic precursors such as ENSO, the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ), low frequency signals from the Pacific and Caribbean and some intra-seasonal signals such as the MJO are evaluated. Previous work by the authors identified a connection between the CLLJ and CADC precipitation. This connection is more complex than a simple rain-shadow effect, and instead it was suggested that convection at the exit of the jet in the Costa-Rica and Nicaragua Caribbean coasts and consequent subsidence in the Pacific could be playing a role in this connection. During summer, when the CLLJ is stronger than normal, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (located mainly in the Pacific) displaces to a more southern position, and vice-versa, suggesting a connection between these two processes that has not been fully explained yet. The role of the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool also needs more research. All this is important, as it suggest a working hypothesis that during summer, the effect of the Caribbean wind strength may be responsible for the dry climate of the CADC. Another previous analysis by the authors was based on downscaled precipitation and temperature from GCMs and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The data was later used in a hydrological model. Results showed a negative trend in reanalysis' runoff for 1980-2012 in San José (Costa Rica) and Tegucigalpa (Honduras). This highly significant drying trend

Warmed, humidified CO2 insufflation benefits intraoperative core temperature during laparoscopic surgery: A meta‐analysis

PubMed Central

Dean, Meara; Ramsay, Robert; Heriot, Alexander; Mackay, John; Hiscock, Richard

2016-01-01

Abstract Background Intraoperative hypothermia is linked to postoperative adverse events. The use of warmed, humidified CO2 to establish pneumoperitoneum during laparoscopy has been associated with reduced incidence of intraoperative hypothermia. However, the small number and variable quality of published studies have caused uncertainty about the potential benefit of this therapy. This meta‐analysis was conducted to specifically evaluate the effects of warmed, humidified CO2 during laparoscopy. Methods An electronic database search identified randomized controlled trials performed on adults who underwent laparoscopic abdominal surgery under general anesthesia with either warmed, humidified CO2 or cold, dry CO2. The main outcome measure of interest was change in intraoperative core body temperature. Results The database search identified 320 studies as potentially relevant, and of these, 13 met the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. During laparoscopic surgery, use of warmed, humidified CO2 is associated with a significant increase in intraoperative core temperature (mean temperature change, 0.3°C), when compared with cold, dry CO2 insufflation. Conclusion Warmed, humidified CO2 insufflation during laparoscopic abdominal surgery has been demonstrated to improve intraoperative maintenance of normothermia when compared with cold, dry CO2. PMID:27976517

Body heat storage during intermittent work in hot-dry and warm-wet environments.

PubMed

Stapleton, Jill M; Wright, Heather E; Hardcastle, Stephen G; Kenny, Glen P

2012-10-01

We examined heat balance using an American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists threshold limit value allocated exercise protocol in hot-dry (HD; 46 °C, 10% relative humidity (RH)) and warm-wet (WW; 33 °C, 60% RH) environments of equivalent WBGT (29 °C) for different clothing ensembles. Whole-body heat exchange and changes in body heat content (ΔH(b)) were measured using simultaneous direct whole-body and indirect calorimetry. Eight males performed six 15-min cycling periods at a constant rate of metabolic heat production (360 W) interspersed by 5-min rest periods for six experimental trials: HD and WW environments for a seminude control (CON), modified work uniform (MWU, moisture permeable top and work pants), and standard work uniform (SWU, work coveralls and cotton undergarments). Whole-body evaporative and dry heat exchange, rectal temperature (T(re)), and heart rate were measured continuously. The cumulative ΔH(b) during the 2 h intermittent exercise protocol was similar between HD and WW environments for each of the clothing ensembles (CON, 387 ± 55 vs. 435 ± 49 kJ; MWU, 485 ± 58 vs. 531 ± 61 kJ; SWU, 585 ± 74 vs. 660 ± 54 kJ, respectively). Similarly, no differences in T(re) (CON, 37.67 ± 0.07 vs. 37.48 ± 0.08 °C; MWU, 37.73 ± 0.08 vs. 37.53 ± 0.09 °C; SWU, 38.01 ± 0.09 vs. 37.94 ± 0.05 °C) or heat rate (CON, 93 ± 3 vs. 84 ± 3 beats·min⁻¹; MWU, 102 ± 5 vs. 95 ± 9 beats·min⁻¹; SWU, 119 ± 8 vs. 110 ± 9 beats·min⁻¹) were observed at the end of the 2 h intermittent exercise protocol in HD vs. WW environments, respectively. We showed similar levels of thermal and cardiovascular strain for intermittent work performed in high heat stress conditions of varying environmental conditions but similar WBGT.

Possible impacts of the Arctic oscillation on the interdecadal variation of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jianhua, Ju; Junmei, Lü; Jie, Cao; Juzhang, Ren

2005-01-01

The influences of the wintertime AO (Arctic Oscillation) on the interdecadal variation of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia were examined. An interdecadal abrupt change was found by the end of the 1970s in the variation of the AO index and the leading principal component time series of the summer rainfall in East Asia. The rainfall anomaly changed from below normal to above normal in central China, the southern part of northeastern China and the Korean peninsula around 1978. However, the opposite interdecadal variation was found in the rainfall anomaly in North China and South China. The interdecadal variation of summer rainfall is associated with the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation. It is indicated that the interdecadal variation of the AO exerts an influence on the weakening of the monsoon circulation. The recent trend in the AO toward its high-index polarity during the past two decades plays important roles in the land-sea contrast anomalies and wintertime precipitation anomaly. The mid- and high-latitude regions of the Asian continent are warming, while the low-latitude regions are cooling in winter and spring along with the AO entering its high-index polarity after the late 1970s. In the meantime, the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and South China is excessive, implying an increase of soil moisture. The cooling tendency of the land in the southern part of Asia will persist until summer because of the memory of soil moisture. So the warming of the Asian continent is relatively slow in summer. Moreover, the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean, which are located southward and eastward of the Asian land, are warming from winter to summer. This suggests that the contrast between the land and sea is decreased in summer. The interdecadal decrease of the land-sea heat contrast finally leads to the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation.

The Evolution of Tropospheric Temperature Field and its Relationship With The Onset of Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

He, H.; Sui, C-H.; Jian, M.; Wen, Z.

2000-01-01

The mean state and year-to-year variations of the tropospheric temperature fields and their relationship with the establishment of the summertime East Asian monsoon (EAM) and the Indian monsoon (INM) are studied using the NCEP reanalysis data of 15 years (1982-1996). The results show that the seasonal shift of the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and the establishment of the EAM and the INM are closely related to the seasonal warming which causes a reversal of the meridional gradient of upper tropospheric mean temperature over the monsoon regions. On the average of 15 years, the reversal time of the temperature gradient in the EAM region (INM region) is concurrent with (one pentad earlier than) the onset time of the summer monsoon. In most years of the 15-year period, the reversal of temperature gradient coincides or precedes the onset time of the summer monsoon in both the EAM region and the INM region. The results suggest an important role of thermal processes on the establishment of the Asian monsoon. The contributors to the upper tropospheric warming over the EAM region are the strong horizontal warm advection and the diabetic heating against the adiabatic cooling due to upward motion. In the INM region, strong adiabatic heating by subsidence and the diabetic heating are major warming processes against the strong horizontal cold advection related to the persistent northwestlies to the southwestern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau. It appears that the early or late establishment of the Asian summer monsoon is not directly related to the differential warming near the surface.

Predictability of Zonal Means During Boreal Summer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Suarez, Max J.; Pegion, Philip J.; Kistler, Michael A.; Kumar, Arun; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This study examines the predictability of seasonal means during boreal summer. The results are based on ensembles of June-July-August (JJA) simulations (started in mid May) carried out with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTS) and sea ice for the years 1980-1999. We find that the predictability of the JJA extra-tropical height field is primarily in the zonal mean component of the response to the SST anomalies. This contrasts with the cold season (January-February-March) when the predictability of seasonal means in the boreal extratropics is primarily in the wave component of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response. Two patterns dominate the interannual variability of the ensemble mean JJA zonal mean height field. One has maximum variance in the tropical/subtropical upper troposphere, while the other has substantial variance in middle latitudes of both hemispheres. Both are symmetric with respect to the equator. A regression analysis suggests that the tropical/subtropical pattern is associated with SST anomalies in the far eastern tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean, while the middle latitude pattern is forced by SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific just east of the dateline. The two leading zonal height patterns are reproduced in model runs forced with the two leading JJA SST patterns of variability. A comparison with observations shows a signature of the middle latitude pattern that is consistent with the occurrence of dry and wet summers over the United States. We hypothesize that both patterns, while imposing only weak constraints on extratropical warm season continental-scale climates, may play a role in the predilection for drought or pluvial conditions.

Hydrologic processes in China and their association with summer precipitation anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Pollard, D.; Barron, E. J.

2005-01-01

A climate version of MM5 is applied to study hydrologic processes in China and their association with precipitation anomalies in 1980 and 1985, which are two anomalous years with opposite signs of summer precipitation anomalies. The study reveals that anomalous atmospheric moisture transport due to synoptic scale circulation was primarily responsible for initiating the anomalous wet (dry) summer in south-central China and dry (wet) summer in northeastern China in 1980 (1985). The recycling ratio (defined as contribution of local evaporation to total precipitation) ranges from less than 4% in northwestern China to more than 30% in south-central China at 1000 km space scale. Higher (lower) values of recycling ratio correspond to drier (wetter) summers in south-central China and northeastern China. However, the opposite is true in northwestern China. The recycling ratio reflects feedback among hydrologic components over both land and atmosphere. In northwestern China, these feedbacks will further sustain drought events that are triggered by anomalous synoptic scale disturbances, and turn them into prolonged and possibly perpetual phenomenon. However, in south-central China and northeastern China, these feedbacks help reducing severity of drought. The large differences in recycling ratio between the dry and wet years of 1980 and 1985 are indicative of powerful feedback between hydrologic and climatic processes, and imply that surface-atmosphere interaction in China is highly sensitive to climatic perturbation.

Are winter-active species vulnerable to climate warming? A case study with the wintergreen terrestrial orchid, Tipularia discolor.

PubMed

Marchin, Renée M; Dunn, Robert R; Hoffmann, William A

2014-12-01

In the eastern United States, winter temperature has been increasing nearly twice as fast as summer temperature, but studies of warming effects on plants have focused on species that are photosynthetically active in summer. The terrestrial orchid Tipularia discolor is leafless in summer and acquires C primarily in winter. The optimum temperature for photosynthesis in T. discolor is higher than the maximum temperature throughout most of its growing season, and therefore growth can be expected to increase with warming. Contrary to this hypothesis, experimental warming negatively affected reproductive fitness (number of flowering stalks, flowers, fruits) and growth (change in leaf area from 2010 to 2012) in T. discolor. Temperature in June-July was critical for flowering, and mean July temperature greater than 29 °C (i.e., 2.5 °C above ambient) eliminated reproduction. Warming of 1.2 °C delayed flowering by an average of 10 days and fruiting by an average of 5 days. Warming of 4.4 °C reduced relative growth rates by about 60%, which may have been partially caused by the direct effects of temperature on photosynthesis and respiration. Warming indirectly increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD) by 0.2-0.5 kPa, and leaf-to-air VPD over 1.3 kPa restricted stomatal conductance of T. discolor to 10-40% of maximum conductance. These results highlight the need to account for changes in VPD when estimating temperature responses of plant species under future warming scenarios. Increasing temperature in the future will likely be an important limiting factor to the distribution of T. discolor, especially along the southern edge of its range.

Eutrophication and Warming Boost Cyanobacterial Biomass and Microcystins.

PubMed

Lürling, Miquel; van Oosterhout, Frank; Faassen, Elisabeth

2017-02-11

Eutrophication and warming are key drivers of cyanobacterial blooms, but their combined effects on microcystin (MC) concentrations are less studied. We tested the hypothesis that warming promotes cyanobacterial abundance in a natural plankton community and that eutrophication enhances cyanobacterial biomass and MC concentrations. We incubated natural seston from a eutrophic pond under normal, high, and extreme temperatures (i.e., 20, 25, and 30 °C) with and without additional nutrients added (eutrophication) mimicking a pulse as could be expected from projected summer storms under climate change. Eutrophication increased algal- and cyanobacterial biomass by 26 and 8 times, respectively, and led to 24 times higher MC concentrations. This effect was augmented with higher temperatures leading to 45 times higher MC concentrations at 25 °C, with 11 times more cyanobacterial chlorophyll- a and 25 times more eukaryote algal chlorophyll- a . At 30 °C, MC concentrations were 42 times higher, with cyanobacterial chlorophyll- a being 17 times and eukaryote algal chlorophyll- a being 24 times higher. In contrast, warming alone did not yield more cyanobacteria or MCs, because the in situ community had already depleted the available nutrient pool. MC per potential MC producing cell declined at higher temperatures under nutrient enrichments, which was confirmed by a controlled experiment with two laboratory strains of Microcystis aeruginosa. Nevertheless, MC concentrations were much higher at the increased temperature and nutrient treatment than under warming alone due to strongly promoted biomass, lifting N-imitation and promotion of potential MC producers like Microcystis . This study exemplifies the vulnerability of eutrophic urban waters to predicted future summer climate change effects that might aggravate cyanobacterial nuisance.

An overview of dry-wet climate variability among monsoon-westerly regions and the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Weihong; Ding, Ting; Hu, Haoran; Lin, Xiang; Qin, Aimin

2009-07-01

Climate in mainland China can be divided into the monsoon region in the southeast and the westerly region in the northwest as well as the intercross zone, i.e., the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone that is oriented from Southwest China to the upper Yellow River, North China, and Northeast China. In the three regions, dry-wet climate changes are directly linked to the interaction of the southerly monsoon flow on the east side of the Tibetan Plateau and the westerly flow on the north side of the Plateau from the inter-annual to inter-decadal timescales. Some basic features of climate variability in the three regions for the last half century and the historical hundreds of years are reviewed in this paper. In the last half century, an increasing trend of summer precipitation associated with the enhancing westerly flow is found in the westerly region from Xinjiang to northern parts of North China and Northeast China. On the other hand, an increasing trend of summer precipitation along the Yangtze River and a decreasing trend of summer precipitation along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone are associated with the weakening monsoon flow in East Asia. Historical documents are widely distributed in the monsoon region for hundreds of years and natural climate proxies are constructed in the non-monsoon region, while two types of climate proxies can be commonly found over the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone. In the monsoon region, dry-wet variation centers are altered among North China, the lower Yangtze River, and South China from one century to another. Dry or wet anomalies are firstly observed along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone and shifted southward or southeastward to the Yangtze River valley and South China in about a 70-year timescale. Severe drought events are experienced along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone during the last 5 centuries. Inter-decadal dry-wet variations are depicted by natural proxies for the

Disruption of the European climate seasonal clock in a warming world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cattiaux, J.; Cassou, C.

2015-12-01

Strength and inland penetration of the oceanic westerly flow over Europe control a large part of the temperature variability over most of the continent. Reduced westerlies, linked to high-pressure anomalies over Scandinavia, induce cold conditions in winter and warm conditions in summer. Here we propose to define the onset of these two seasons as the calendar day where the daily circulation/temperature relationship over Western Europe switches sign. According to this meteorologically-based metrics assessed from several observational datasets, we provide robust evidence for an earlier summer onset by ~10 days between the 1960s and 2000s. Results from model ensemble simulations dedicated to detection-attribution show that this calendar advance is incompatible with the sole internal climate variability and can be attributed to anthropogenic forcings. Late winter snow disappearance over Eastern Europe affects cold air intrusion to the West when easterlies blow, and is mainly responsible for the observed present-day and near-future summer advance. Our findings agree with phenological-based trends (earlier spring events) reported for many living species over Europe, for which they provide a novel dynamical interpretation beyond the traditionally evoked global warming effect. Based on business-as-usual scenario, a seasonal shift of ~25 days is expected by 2100 for summer onset, while no clear signal arises for winter onset.

Terrestrial carbon cycle affected by non-uniform climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Jianyang; Chen, Jiquan; Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Luo, Yiqi; Wan, Shiqiang

2014-03-01

Feedbacks between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change could affect many ecosystem functions and services, such as food production, carbon sequestration and climate regulation. The rate of climate warming varies on diurnal and seasonal timescales. A synthesis of global air temperature data reveals a greater rate of warming in winter than in summer in northern mid and high latitudes, and the inverse pattern in some tropical regions. The data also reveal a decline in the diurnal temperature range over 51% of the global land area and an increase over only 13%, because night-time temperatures in most locations have risen faster than daytime temperatures. Analyses of satellite data, model simulations and in situ observations suggest that the impact of seasonal warming varies between regions. For example, spring warming has largely stimulated ecosystem productivity at latitudes between 30° and 90° N, but suppressed productivity in other regions. Contrasting impacts of day- and night-time warming on plant carbon gain and loss are apparent in many regions. We argue that ascertaining the effects of non-uniform climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems is a key challenge in carbon cycle research.

Interdecadal Connection Between Artic Temperature and Summer Precipitation Over the Yangtze River Valley in the CMIP5 Historical Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Yuefeng; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Xiao, Ziniu

2013-10-01

This study assesses the ability of the Phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations in capturing the interdecadal precipitation enhancement over the Yangtze River valley (YRV) and investigates the contributions of Arctic warming to the interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. Six CMIP5 historical simulations including models from Canada (CCCma), China (BCC), Germany (MPI-M), Japan (MRI), United Kingdom (MOHC), and United States (NCAR) are used. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and observed precipitation are also used for comparison. Among the six CMIP5 simulations, only CCCma can approximately simulate the enhancement of interdecadal summer precipitation over the YRV inmore » 1990-2005 relative to 1960-1975, and the relationships between the summer precipitation with surface temperature (Ts), the 850hPa winds, and 500hPa height field (H500), and between Ts and H500 using regression, correlation, and SVD analyses. It is found that CCCma can reasonably simulate the interdecadal surface warming over the boreal mid-to high latitudes and the Arctic in winter, spring and summer. The summer Baikal blocking appears to be the bridge that links the winter and spring surface warming over the mid-to high latitude and Arctic with the enhancement of summer precipitation over the YRV. Models that missed some or all of these relationships found in CCCma and the reanalysis failed to simulate the interdecadal enhancement of precipitation over the YRV. This points to the importance of high latitude and Arctic processes on interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon and the challenge for global climate models to correctly simulate the linkages.« less

Multi-season climate synchronized historical fires in dry forests (1650-1900), northern Rockies, U.S.A.

PubMed

Heyerdahl, Emily K; Morgan, Penelope; Riser, James P

2008-03-01

Our objective was to infer the climate drivers of regionally synchronous fire years in dry forests of the U.S. northern Rockies in Idaho and western Montana. During our analysis period (1650-1900), we reconstructed fires from 9245 fire scars on 576 trees (mostly ponderosa pine, Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson) at 21 sites and compared them to existing tree-ring reconstructions of climate (temperature and the Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI]) and large-scale climate patterns that affect modern spring climate in this region (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO]). We identified 32 regional-fire years as those with five or more sites with fire. Fires were remarkably widespread during such years, including one year (1748) in which fires were recorded at 10 sites across what are today seven national forests plus one site on state land. During regional-fire years, spring-summers were significantly warm and summers were significantly warm-dry whereas the opposite conditions prevailed during the 99 years when no fires were recorded at any of our sites (no-fire years). Climate in prior years was not significantly associated with regional- or no-fire years. Years when fire was recorded at only a few of our sites occurred under a broad range of climate conditions, highlighting the fact that the regional climate drivers of fire are most evident when fires are synchronized across a large area. No-fire years tended to occur during La Niña years, which tend to have anomalously deep snowpacks in this region. However, ENSO was not a significant driver of regional-fire years, consistent with the greater influence of La Niña than El Niño conditions on the spring climate of this region. PDO was not a significant driver of past fire, despite being a strong driver of modern spring climate and modern regional-fire years in the northern Rockies.

Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau (China) during 1960-2013 under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Wenyi; Mu, Xingmin; Song, Xiaoyan; Wu, Dan; Cheng, Aifang; Qiu, Bing

2016-02-01

In recent decades, extreme climatic events have been a major issue worldwide. Regional assessments on various climates and geographic regions are needed for understanding uncertainties in extreme events' responses to global warming. The objective of this study was to assess the annual and decadal trends in 12 extreme temperature and 10 extreme precipitation indices in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration over the Loess Plateau during 1960-2013. The results indicated that the regionally averaged trends in temperature extremes were consistent with global warming. The occurrence of warm extremes, including summer days (SU), tropical nights (TR), warm days (TX90), and nights (TN90) and a warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), increased by 2.76 (P < 0.01), 1.24 (P < 0.01), 2.60 (P = 0.0003), 3.41 (P < 0.01), and 0.68 (P = 0.0041) days/decade during the period of 1960-2013, particularly, sharp increases in these indices occurred in 1985-2000. Over the same period, the occurrence of cold extremes, including frost days (FD), ice days (ID), cold days (TX10) and nights (TN10), and a cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) exhibited decreases of - 3.22 (P < 0.01), - 2.21 (P = 0.0028), - 2.71 (P = 0.0028), - 4.31 (P < 0.01), and - 0.69 (P = 0.0951) days/decade, respectively. Moreover, extreme warm events in most regions tended to increase while cold indices tended to decrease in the Loess Plateau, but the trend magnitudes of cold extremes were greater than those of warm extremes. The growing season (GSL) in the Loess Plateau was lengthened at a rate of 3.16 days/decade (P < 0.01). Diurnal temperature range (DTR) declined at a rate of - 0.06 °C /decade (P = 0.0931). Regarding the precipitation indices, the annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) showed no obvious trends (P = 0.7828). The regionally averaged daily rainfall intensity (SDII) exhibited significant decreases (- 0.14 mm/day/decade, P = 0.0158), whereas consecutive dry days (CDD) significantly increased (1.96 days

The North Pacific Summer Jet and Climate Extremes Over North America: Mechanisms and Model Biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert, S. D.; Wang, H.; Chang, Y.; Koster, R. D.; Molod, A.

2017-12-01

The North Pacific summer jet (NPSJ) plays a critical role as a waveguide for weather systems and other sub-seasonal Rossby waves entering North America and therefore has a controlling influence on the warm season weather and climate extremes over much of the continent. In particular, much of the warm season precipitation that occurs over the central United States depends on subseasonal transients that are able to tap moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as they propagate across the continent. The GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), like many AGCMs, is deficient in the simulation of the NPSJ. It is shown that the deficiency is composed of: 1) a stunted jet in which the strongest winds are confined to the Asian continent, failing to extend across the North Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska as observed, and 2) a zonally symmetric poleward shift in the jet. These biases combine to impede the eastward propagation of the weather systems into the continent (the stunted jet), and deprive those systems that do enter the continent access to the moisture from the Gulf (the northward shift), leading to a dry bias over the central US. It is shown that the stunted jet bias is the result of too strong heating that occurs just south of the jet core over and near Tibet. Furthermore, it is shown that the poleward shift of the NPSJ can be corrected in the current GEOS-5 AGCM by increasing the vertical resolution. The implications of these results for improving warm season forecasts of extreme events will be discussed.

The North Pacific Summer Jet and Climate Extremes over North America: Mechanisms and Model Biases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, S.; Wang, H.; Chang, Y.; Koster, R.; Molod, A.; Barahona, D.

2017-01-01

The North Pacific summer jet (NPSJ) plays a critical role as a waveguide for weather systems and other sub-seasonal Rossby waves entering North America and therefore has a controlling influence on the warm season weather and climate extremes over much of the continent. In particular, much of the warm season precipitation that occurs over the central United States depends on subseasonal transients that are able to tap moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as they propagate across the continent. The GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), like many AGCMs, is deficient in the simulation of the NPSJ. It is shown that the deficiency is composed of: 1) a stunted jet in which the strongest winds are confined to the Asian continent, failing to extend across the North Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska as observed, and 2) a zonally symmetric poleward shift in the jet. These biases combine to impede the eastward propagation of the weather systems into the continent (the stunted jet), and deprive those systems that do enter the continent access to the moisture from the Gulf (the northward shift), leading to a dry bias over the central US. It is shown that the stunted jet bias is the result of too strong heating that occurs just south of the jet core over and near Tibet. Furthermore, it is shown that the poleward shift of the NPSJ can be corrected in the current GEOS-5 AGCM by increasing the vertical resolution. The implications of these results for improving warm season forecasts of extreme events will be discussed.

Mechanistic Lake Modeling to Understand and Predict Heterogeneous Responses to Climate Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, J. S.; Winslow, L. A.; Rose, K. C.; Hansen, G. J.

2016-12-01

Substantial warming has been documented for of hundreds globally distributed lakes, with likely impacts on ecosystem processes. Despite a clear pattern of widespread warming, thermal responses of individual lakes to climate change are often heterogeneous, with the warming rates of neighboring lakes varying across depths and among seasons. We aggregated temperature observations and parameterized mechanistic models for 9,000 lakes in the U.S. states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan to examine broad-scale lake warming trends and among-lake diversity. Daily lake temperature profiles and ice-cover dynamics were simulated using the General Lake Model for the contemporary period (1979-2015) using drivers from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) and for contemporary and future periods (1980-2100) using downscaled data from six global circulation models driven by the Representative Climate Pathway 8.5 scenario. For the contemporary period, modeled vs observed summer mean surface temperatures had a root mean squared error of 0.98°C with modeled warming trends similar to observed trends. Future simulations under the extreme 8.5 scenario predicted a median lake summer surface warming rate of 0.57°C/decade until mid-century, with slower rates in the later half of the 21st century (0.35°C/decade). Modeling scenarios and analysis of field data suggest that the lake-specific properties of size, water clarity, and depth are strong controls on the sensitivity of lakes to climate change. For example, a simulated 1% annual decline in water clarity was sufficient to override the effects of climate warming on whole lake water temperatures in some - but not all - study lakes. Understanding heterogeneous lake responses to climate variability can help identify lake-specific features that influence resilience to climate change.

Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

PubMed Central

Salzmann, Marc

2016-01-01

Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K−1 decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge. PMID:27386558

Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

PubMed

Salzmann, Marc

2016-06-01

Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

The discomfort index, mortality and the London summers of 1976 and 1978

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tout, D. G.

1980-12-01

The Discomfort Index (DI), and its associated heat load categories as worked out for conditions in Israel, was used in a study of the summer months of 1976 and 1978 in London. The cool summer of 1978 presented no heat load problems but the exceptionally warm summer of 1976, especially the period between 22 June and 9 July, produced several days of moderate heat load conditions. During this hot spell mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular accidents and respiratory disease all increased substantially. It is suggested that the heat load categories, although rarely attained, would be useful in predicting danger periods during heatwave conditions in the United Kingdom.

The use of early summer mosquito surveillance to predict late summer West Nile virus activity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ginsberg, Howard S.; Rochlin, Ilia; Campbell, Scott R.

2010-01-01

Utility of early-season mosquito surveillance to predict West Nile virus activity in late summer was assessed in Suffolk County, NY. Dry ice-baited CDC miniature light traps paired with gravid traps were set weekly. Maximum-likelihood estimates of WNV positivity, minimum infection rates, and % positive pools were generally well correlated. However, positivity in gravid traps was not correlated with positivity in CDC light traps. The best early-season predictors of WNV activity in late summer (estimated using maximum-likelihood estimates of Culex positivity in August and September) were early date of first positive pool, low numbers of mosquitoes in July, and low numbers of mosquito species in July. These results suggest that early-season entomological samples can be used to predict WNV activity later in the summer, when most human cases are acquired. Additional research is needed to establish which surveillance variables are most predictive and to characterize the reliability of the predictions.

Variability of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation during the Holocene and possible forcing mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Fuzhi; Ma, Chunmei; Zhu, Cheng; Lu, Huayu; Zhang, Xiaojian; Huang, Kangyou; Guo, Tianhong; Li, Kaifeng; Li, Lan; Li, Bing; Zhang, Wenqing

2018-03-01

Projecting how the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall will change with global warming is essential for human sustainability. Reconstructing Holocene climate can provide critical insight into its forcing and future variability. However, quantitative reconstructions of Holocene summer precipitation are lacking for tropical and subtropical China, which is the core region of the EASM influence. Here we present high-resolution annual and summer rainfall reconstructions covering the whole Holocene based on the pollen record at Xinjie site from the lower Yangtze region. Summer rainfall was less seasonal and 30% higher than modern values at 10-6 cal kyr BP and gradually declined thereafter, which broadly followed the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Over the last two millennia, however, the summer rainfall has deviated from the downward trend of summer insolation. We argue that greenhouse gas forcing might have offset summer insolation forcing and contributed to the late Holocene rainfall anomaly, which is supported by the TraCE-21 ka transient simulation. Besides, tropical sea-surface temperatures could modulate summer rainfall by affecting evaporation of seawater. The rainfall pattern concurs with stalagmite and other proxy records from southern China but differs from mid-Holocene rainfall maximum recorded in arid/semiarid northern China. Summer rainfall in northern China was strongly suppressed by high-northern-latitude ice volume forcing during the early Holocene in spite of high summer insolation. In addition, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation might be responsible for droughts of northern China and floods of southern China during the late Holocene. Furthermore, quantitative rainfall reconstructions indicate that the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) simulations underestimate the magnitude of Holocene precipitation changes. Our results highlight the spatial and temporal variability of the Holocene EASM precipitation and potential forcing

Simulation and Prediction of Warm Season Drought in North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Hailan; Chang, Yehui; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Koster, Randal D.

2018-01-01

This presentation presents our recent work on model simulation and prediction of warm season drought in North America. The emphasis will be on the contribution from the leading modes of subseasonal atmospheric circulation variability, which are often present in the form of stationary Rossby waves. Here we take advantage of the results from observations, reanalyses, and simulations and reforecasts performed using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) atmospheric and coupled General Circulation Model (GCM). Our results show that stationary Rossby waves play a key role in Northern Hemisphere (NH) atmospheric circulation and surface meteorology variability on subseasonal timescales. In particular, such waves have been crucial to the development of recent short-term warm season heat waves and droughts over North America (e.g. the 1988, 1998, and 2012 summer droughts) and northern Eurasia (e.g., the 2003 summer heat wave over Europe and the 2010 summer drought and heat wave over Russia). Through an investigation of the physical processes by which these waves lead to the development of warm season drought in North America, it is further found that these waves can serve as a potential source of drought predictability. In order to properly represent their effect and exploit this source of predictability, a model needs to correctly simulate the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean jet streams and be able to predict the sources of these waves. Given the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM deficiency in simulating the NH jet streams and tropical convection during boreal summer, an approach has been developed to artificially remove much of model mean biases, which leads to considerable improvement in model simulation and prediction of stationary Rossby waves and drought development in North America. Our study points to the need to identify key model biases that limit model simulation and prediction of regional climate extremes, and diagnose the origin of these biases so as to inform modeling

Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinsanola, A. A.; Zhou, Wen

2018-05-01

Global warming has a profound impact on the vulnerable environment of West Africa; hence, robust climate projection, especially of rainfall extremes, is quite important. Based on two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, projected changes in extreme summer rainfall events over West Africa were investigated using data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment models. Eight (8) extreme rainfall indices (CDD, CWD, r10mm, r20mm, PRCPTOT, R95pTOT, rx5day, and sdii) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were used in the study. The performance of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations was validated by comparing with GPCP and TRMM observation data sets. Results show that the RCMs reasonably reproduced the observed pattern of extreme rainfall over the region and further added significant value to the driven GCMs over some grids. Compared to the baseline period 1976-2005, future changes (2070-2099) in summer rainfall extremes under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show statistically significant decreasing total rainfall (PRCPTOT), while consecutive dry days and extreme rainfall events (R95pTOT) are projected to increase significantly. There are obvious indications that simple rainfall intensity (sdii) will increase in the future. This does not amount to an increase in total rainfall but suggests a likelihood of greater intensity of rainfall events. Overall, our results project that West Africa may suffer more natural disasters such as droughts and floods in the future.

Attributing Contributions of Climate Feedbacks to the Seasonal Cycle of Surface Warming due to CO2 Increase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sejas, S.; Cai, M.

2012-12-01

Surfing warming due to CO2 doubling is a robust feature of coupled general circulation models (GCM), as noted in the IPCC AR4 assessment report. In this study, the contributions of different climate feedbacks to the magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonality of the surface warming is examined using data from NCAR's CCSM4. In particular, a focus is placed on polar regions to see which feedbacks play a role in polar amplification and its seasonal pattern. A new climate feedback analysis method is used to isolate the surface warming or cooling contributions of both radiative and non-radiative (dynamical) climate feedbacks to the total (actual) surface temperature change given by the CCSM4. These contributions (or partial surface temperature changes) are additive and their total is approximately equal to the actual surface temperature change. What is found is that the effects of CO2 doubling alone warms the surface throughout with a maximum in polar regions, which indicates the CO2 forcing alone has a degree of polar warming amplification. Water vapor feedback is a positive feedback throughout but is most responsible for the surface warming found in the tropics. Polar warming amplification is found to be strongest away from summer (especially in NH), which is primarily caused by a positive feedback due to cloud feedbacks but with the surface temperature change due to the CO2 forcing alone and the ocean dynamics and storage feedback also playing an important role. Contrary to popular belief, surface albedo feedback (SAF) does not account for much of the polar amplification. SAF tries to amplify polar warming, but in summer. No major polar amplification is seen in summer for the actual surface temperature, so SAF is not the feedback responsible for polar amplification. This is actually a consequence of the ocean dynamics and storage feedback, which negates the effects of SAF to a large degree.

Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, G.; Alfieri, L.; Wyser, K.; Mentaschi, L.; Betts, R. A.; Carrao, H.; Spinoni, J.; Vogt, J.; Feyen, L.

2018-04-01

Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply-demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South-eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100-year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming.

Free Air Quality Alerts Help New Englanders Prepare for Summer Smog Season

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

With the onset of warm summer weather, the USEPA advises New Englanders to be aware of the increased risk of ground-level ozone and fine particle air pollution (when combined, often referred to as smog), & take health precautions when smog levels are high.

Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability in response to differences in the decay phase of El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdary, Jasti S.; Harsha, H. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Srinivas, G.; Parekh, Anant; Pillai, Prasanth; Naidu, C. V.

2017-04-01

In general the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall is near normal or excess during the El Niño decay phase. Nevertheless the impact of large variations in decaying El Niño on the ISM rainfall and circulation is not systematically examined. Based on the timing of El Niño decay with respect to boreal summer season, El Niño decay phases are classified into three types in this study using 142 years of sea surface temperature (SST) data, which are as follows: (1) early-decay (ED; decay during spring), (2) mid-summer decay (MD; decay by mid-summer) and (3) no-decay (ND; no decay in summer). It is observed that ISM rainfall is above normal/excess during ED years, normal during MD years and below normal/deficit in ND years, suggesting that the differences in El Niño decay phase display profound impact on the ISM rainfall. Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST warming, induced by El Niño, decays rapidly before the second half of the monsoon season (August and September) in ED years, but persists up to the end of the season in MD years, whereas TIO warming maintained up to winter in ND case. Analysis reveals the existence of strong sub-seasonal ISM rainfall variations in the summer following El Niño years. During ED years, strong negative SST anomalies develop over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific by June and are apparent throughout the summer season accompanied by anomalous moisture divergence and high sea level pressure (SLP). The associated moisture convergence and low SLP over ISM region favour excess rainfall (mainly from July onwards). This circulation and rainfall anomalies are highly influenced by warm TIO SST and Pacific La Niña conditions in ED years. Convergence of southwesterlies from Arabian Sea and northeasterlies from Bay of Bengal leads to positive rainfall over most part of the Indian subcontinent from August onwards in MD years. ND years are characterized by negative rainfall anomaly spatial pattern and weaker circulation over India throughout the

Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.

PubMed

Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H

2018-02-01

Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Skilful Seasonal Predictions of Summer European Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunstone, Nick; Smith, Doug; Scaife, Adam; Hermanson, Leon; Fereday, David; O'Reilly, Chris; Stirling, Alison; Eade, Rosie; Gordon, Margaret; MacLachlan, Craig; Woollings, Tim; Sheen, Katy; Belcher, Stephen

2018-04-01

Year-to-year variability in Northern European summer rainfall has profound societal and economic impacts; however, current seasonal forecast systems show no significant forecast skill. Here we show that skillful predictions are possible (r 0.5, p < 0.001) using the latest high-resolution Met Office near-term prediction system over 1960-2017. The model predictions capture both low-frequency changes (e.g., wet summers 2007-2012) and some of the large individual events (e.g., dry summer 1976). Skill is linked to predictable North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability changing the supply of water vapor into Northern Europe and so modulating convective rainfall. However, dynamical circulation variability is not well predicted in general—although some interannual skill is found. Due to the weak amplitude of the forced model signal (likely caused by missing or weak model responses), very large ensembles (>80 members) are required for skillful predictions. This work is promising for the development of European summer rainfall climate services.

Role of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region in the northeast Asia severe drought in summer 2014: month-to-month perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhiqing; Fan, Ke; Wang, HuiJun

2017-09-01

The severe drought over northeast Asia in summer 2014 and the contribution to it by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region were investigated from the month-to-month perspective. The severe drought was accompanied by weak lower-level summer monsoon flow and featured an obvious northward movement during summer. The mid-latitude Asian summer (MAS) pattern and East Asia/Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern, induced by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) rainfall anomalies respectively, were two main bridges between the SST anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region and the severe drought. Warming in the Arabian Sea induced reduced rainfall over northeast India and then triggered a negative MAS pattern favoring the severe drought in June 2014. In July 2014, warming in the tropical western North Pacific led to a strong WNPSM and increased rainfall over the Philippine Sea, triggering a positive EAP pattern. The equatorial eastern Pacific and local warming resulted in increased rainfall over the off-equatorial western Pacific and triggered an EAP-like pattern. The EAP pattern and EAP-like pattern contributed to the severe drought in July 2014. A negative Indian Ocean dipole induced an anomalous meridional circulation, and warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific induced an anomalous zonal circulation, in August 2014. The two anomalous cells led to a weak ISM and WNPSM, triggering the negative MAS and EAP patterns responsible for the severe drought. Two possible reasons for the northward movement of the drought were also proposed.

Inter-Relationship Between Subtropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature, Arctic Sea Ice Concentration, and the North Atlantic Oscillation in Recent Summers and Winters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Cullather, Richard I.; Nowicki, Sophie M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2017-01-01

The inter-relationship between subtropical western-central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are investigated for the last 37 summers and winters (1980-2016). Lag-correlation of the STWCPSST×(-1) in spring with the NAO phase and SICBS in summer increases over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.4-0.5 with significance at 5 percent, while winter has strong correlations in approximately 1985-2005. Observational analysis and the atmospheric general circulation model experiments both suggest that STWCPSST warming acts to increase the Arctic geopotential height and temperature in the following season. This atmospheric response extends to Greenland, providing favorable conditions for developing the negative phase of the NAO. SIC and surface albedo tend to decrease over the Beaufort Sea in summer, linked to the positive surface net shortwave flux. Energy balance considering radiative and turbulent fluxes reveal that available energy that can heat surface is larger over the Arctic and Greenland and smaller over the south of Greenland, in response to the STWCPSST warming in spring. XXXX Arctic & Atlantic: Positive upper-level height/T anomaly over the Arctic and Greenland, and a negative anomaly over the central-eastern Atlantic, resembling the (-) phase of the NAO. Pacific: The negative height/T anomaly over the mid-latitudes, along with the positive anomaly over the STWCP, where 1degC warming above climatology is prescribed. Discussion: It is likely that the Arctic gets warm and the NAO is in the negative phase in response to the STWCP warming. But, there are other factors (e.g., internal variability) that contribute to determination of the NAO phase: not always the negative phase of the NAO in the event of STWCP warming (e.g.: recent winters and near neutral NAO in 2017 summer).

Trends and changes in tropical and summer days at the Adana Sub-Region of the Mediterranean Region, Southern Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayer Altın, Türkan; Barak, Belma

2017-11-01

In this study, the long-term variability and trends of the annual and seasonal numbers of summer and tropical days of the Adana Sub-region were investigated using nonlinear and linear trend detection tests for the period 1960-2014 at 14 meteorological stations. The results suggest that the annual number of summer and tropical days was generally below the long-term average through to the end of the 1980s. In particular, positive anomaly values could be observed at all stations between the years 1993-2014. With respect to the Kruskal-Wallis homogeneity test, the significant breaking date was 1993. The rapid rise of the annual number of summer (tropical) days after this year led to the inversion of the negative trends observed from 1987 to 1992 into positive ones. The increasing trend is statistically significance at 0.01 level in Yumurtalık, Mersin and Antakya for the annual number of summer and tropical days. Dörtyol, İskenderun and Elbistan were significance at 0.01 level for tropical days. The largest positive anomalies of the summer of 2010 are observed in coastal vicinity (Mersin, Yumurtalık and İskenderun). This indicates that these settlements underwent a long-term warm period and thermal conditions due to increasing temperatures in the spring and summer months. The same conditions are found in high inner areas (Göksun and Elbistan) for tropical days. It is noticed that a tendency for greater warming occurred at stations located above 1000 m in the sub-region. The average number of warm days will increase 2-days per 100-years in southern part of the sub-region. The increasing trend in summer temperatures can be considered a potential risk, notably for human health and for economic and crop losses in the Adana Sub-region, including Çukurova, one of the most important agriculture areas of Turkey.

Reconstructing 800 years of summer temperatures in Scotland from tree rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rydval, Miloš; Loader, Neil J.; Gunnarson, Björn E.; Druckenbrod, Daniel L.; Linderholm, Hans W.; Moreton, Steven G.; Wood, Cheryl V.; Wilson, Rob

2017-11-01

This study presents a summer temperature reconstruction using Scots pine tree-ring chronologies for Scotland allowing the placement of current regional temperature changes in a longer-term context. `Living-tree' chronologies were extended using `subfossil' samples extracted from nearshore lake sediments resulting in a composite chronology >800 years in length. The North Cairngorms (NCAIRN) reconstruction was developed from a set of composite blue intensity high-pass and ring-width low-pass filtered chronologies with a range of detrending and disturbance correction procedures. Calibration against July-August mean temperature explains 56.4% of the instrumental data variance over 1866-2009 and is well verified. Spatial correlations reveal strong coherence with temperatures over the British Isles, parts of western Europe, southern Scandinavia and northern parts of the Iberian Peninsula. NCAIRN suggests that the recent summer-time warming in Scotland is likely not unique when compared to multi-decadal warm periods observed in the 1300s, 1500s, and 1730s, although trends before the mid-sixteenth century should be interpreted with some caution due to greater uncertainty. Prominent cold periods were identified from the sixteenth century until the early 1800s—agreeing with the so-called Little Ice Age observed in other tree-ring reconstructions from Europe—with the 1690s identified as the coldest decade in the record. The reconstruction shows a significant cooling response 1 year following volcanic eruptions although this result is sensitive to the datasets used to identify such events. In fact, the extreme cold (and warm) years observed in NCAIRN appear more related to internal forcing of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation.

Potential sources of the air masses leading to warm and cold anomalies in Moscow in summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukurov, K. A.; Semenov, V. A.

2017-11-01

For summer (June-July-August) days in 1949-2016, using the NOAA trajectory model HYSPLIT_4, the 5-day backward trajectories of the air parcels (elementary air particles) were calculated. Using the daily surface air temperatures (SAT) in summer in Moscow in 1949-2016 and the results of the backward trajectories modeling by PSCF (potential source contribution function) and CWT (concentration weighted trajectories) methods the regions where the air masses most probably hit to before its arrive into the Moscow region at the days of 20%, 10%, 5% and 2% of the strongest positive and negative anomalies of SAT in summer in Moscow. For composites of days with SAT in summer in Moscow above 90th and below the 10th percentile of the distribution function of the SAT, the field of the anomaly of atmospheric pressure at sea level relative to 1981-2010 climatology and the field of average SAT in Eurasia north of 30° N are calculated. The peculiarities of the fields associated with the strong positive and negative anomalies of SAT in summer seasons in Moscow are identified. The fields of potential sources of air parcels, mean air temperature on the path of the movement of air parcels and the average height of the backward trajectory for days with strong anomalies of SAT in summer in Moscow are compared. Possible atmospheric circulation drivers of the highest and lowest anomalies of SAT in winter in Moscow are found out.

Feeding strategies during dry summer for lactating desert goats in a rainfed area under tropical conditions.

PubMed

Ahmed, M M.M.; El Hag, F M.; Wahab, F S.; Salih, S F.

2001-02-01

Feeding strategies aimed at improving the nutritive value of crop residues through chemical treatment or utilizing other available feed resources as small ruminant feeds were carried out during the hot dry summer season when rangeland pasture deteriorates drastically. The study utilized small-scale farmer animals and crop residues chemically treated as animal feeds. Other feeds were groundnut haulms (GNH) and tree pods (TP) of Faidherbia albida. A total of 30 adult lactating goats with their kids (30) were allocated in completely randomized design to the following treatments: untreated sorghum straw (USS, control), sorghum straw treated with 4.7% urea solution (TSS), TSS+treepods (TSS+TP), USS+groundnuthaulms (USS+GNH) and TSS+GNH. Parameters investigated were: changes in body weight (BW) of the does and their kids as well as milk composition of the does. The results showed that dry matter intake (DMI) was reduced (P<0.05) by urea treatment, but it was increased (P<0.05) by supplementation. In vitro organic matter digestibility (IVOMD) was improved (P<0.05) by urea treatment and supplementation with either GNH or TP. BW of does decreased (P<0.05) in the TSS group, while a significant increase was obtained in the TSS+GNH group. BW of the kids belonging to the does given USS+GNH or TSS+TP was higher (P<0.05) than BW of the kids that belonged to the does fed other rations. However, no losses in BW were detected. It could be concluded that the combination of urea treatment and supplementation with either GNH or TP improved DMI, BW, digestibility and milk yield.

Long-Term Responses of the Endemic Reef-Builder Cladocora caespitosa to Mediterranean Warming

PubMed Central

Kersting, Diego K.; Bensoussan, Nathaniel; Linares, Cristina

2013-01-01

Recurrent climate-induced mass-mortalities have been recorded in the Mediterranean Sea over the past 15 years. Cladocora caespitosa, the sole zooxanthellate scleractinian reef-builder in the Mediterranean, is among the organisms affected by these episodes. Extensive bioconstructions of this endemic coral are very rare at the present time and are threatened by several stressors. In this study, we assessed the long-term response of this temperate coral to warming sea-water in the Columbretes Islands (NW Mediterranean) and described, for the first time, the relationship between recurrent mortality events and local sea surface temperature (SST) regimes in the Mediterranean Sea. A water temperature series spanning more than 20 years showed a summer warming trend of 0.06°C per year and an increased frequency of positive thermal anomalies. Mortality resulted from tissue necrosis without massive zooxanthellae loss and during the 11-year study, necrosis was recorded during nine summers separated into two mortality periods (2003–2006 and 2008–2012). The highest necrosis rates were registered during the first mortality period, after the exceptionally hot summer of 2003. Although necrosis and temperature were significantly associated, the variability in necrosis rates during summers with similar thermal anomalies pointed to other acting factors. In this sense, our results showed that these differences were more closely related to the interannual temperature context and delayed thermal stress after extreme summers, rather than to acclimatisation and adaption processes. PMID:23951016

Leaf anatomical and photosynthetic acclimation to cool temperature and high light in two winter versus two summer annuals.

PubMed

Cohu, Christopher M; Muller, Onno; Adams, William W; Demmig-Adams, Barbara

2014-09-01

Acclimation of foliar features to cool temperature and high light was characterized in winter (Spinacia oleracea L. cv. Giant Nobel; Arabidopsis thaliana (L.) Heynhold Col-0 and ecotypes from Sweden and Italy) versus summer (Helianthus annuus L. cv. Soraya; Cucurbita pepo L. cv. Italian Zucchini Romanesco) annuals. Significant relationships existed among leaf dry mass per area, photosynthesis, leaf thickness and palisade mesophyll thickness. While the acclimatory response of the summer annuals to cool temperature and/or high light levels was limited, the winter annuals increased the number of palisade cell layers, ranging from two layers under moderate light and warm temperature to between four and five layers under cool temperature and high light. A significant relationship was also found between palisade tissue thickness and either cross-sectional area or number of phloem cells (each normalized by vein density) in minor veins among all four species and growth regimes. The two winter annuals, but not the summer annuals, thus exhibited acclimatory adjustments of minor vein phloem to cool temperature and/or high light, with more numerous and larger phloem cells and a higher maximal photosynthesis rate. The upregulation of photosynthesis in winter annuals in response to low growth temperature may thus depend on not only (1) a greater volume of photosynthesizing palisade tissue but also (2) leaf veins containing additional phloem cells and presumably capable of exporting a greater volume of sugars from the leaves to the rest of the plant. © 2014 Scandinavian Plant Physiology Society.

Surface ozone seasonality under global change: Influence from dry deposition and isoprene emissions at northern mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clifton, O.; Paulot, F.; Fiore, A. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.; Correa, G. J. P.; Lin, M.

2017-12-01

Identifying the contributions of nonlinear chemistry and transport to observed surface ozone seasonal cycles over land using global models relies on an accurate representation of ozone uptake by vegetation (dry deposition). It is well established that in the absence of ozone precursor emission changes, a warming climate will increase surface ozone in polluted regions, and that a rise in temperature-dependent isoprene emissions would exacerbate this "climate penalty". However, the influence of changes in ozone dry deposition, expected to evolve with climate and land use, is often overlooked in air quality projections. With a new scheme that represents dry deposition within the NOAA GFDL dynamic vegetation land model (LM3) coupled to the NOAA GFDL atmospheric chemistry-climate model (AM3), we simulate the impact of 21st century climate and land use on ozone dry deposition and isoprene emissions. This dry deposition parameterization is a version of the Wesely scheme, but uses parameters explicitly calculated by LM3 that respond to climate and land use (e.g., stomatal conductance, canopy interception of water, leaf area index). The parameterization includes a nonstomatal deposition dependence on humidity. We evaluate climatological present-day seasonal cycles of ozone deposition velocities and abundances with those observed at northern mid-latitude sites. With a set of 2010s and 2090s decadal simulations under a high climate warming scenario (RCP8.5) and a sensitivity simulation with well-mixed greenhouse gases following RCP8.5 but air pollutants held at 2010 levels (RCP8.5_WMGG), we examine changes in surface ozone seasonal cycles. We build on our previous findings, which indicate that strong reductions in anthropogenic NOx emissions under RCP8.5 cause the surface ozone seasonal cycle over the NE USA to reverse, shifting from a summer peak at present to a winter peak by 2100. Under RCP8.5_WMGG, we parse the separate effects of climate and land use on ozone dry

Interdecadal variability of the Afro-Asian summer monsoon system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yi; Ding, Yihui; Li, Weijing

2017-07-01

The Afro-Asian summer monsoon is a zonally planetary-scale system, with a large-scale rainbelt covering Africa, South Asia and East Asia on interdecadal timescales both in the past century (1901-2014) and during the last three decades (1979-2014). A recent abrupt change of precipitation occurred in the late 1990s. Since then, the entire rainbelt of the Afro-Asia monsoon system has advanced northwards in a coordinated way. Consistent increases in precipitation over the Huanghe-Huaihe River valley and the Sahel are associated with the teleconnection pattern excited by the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A teleconnection wave train, with alternating cyclones/anticyclones, is detected in the upper troposphere. Along the teleconnection path, the configuration of circulation anomalies in North Africa is characterized by coupling of the upper-level anticyclone (divergence) with low-level thermal low pressure (convergence), facilitating the initiation and development of ascending motions in the Sahel. Similarly, in East Asia, a coupled circulation pattern also excites ascending motion in the Huanghe-Huaihe River valley. The synchronous increase in precipitation over the Sahel and Huanghe-Huaihe River valley can be attributed to the co-occurrences and in-phase changes of ascending motion. On the other hand, the warm phase of the AMO results in significant warming in the upper troposphere in North Africa and the northern part of East Asia. Such warming contributes to intensification of the tropical easterly jet through increasing the meridional pressure gradient both at the entrance region (East Asia) and the exit region (Africa). Accordingly, precipitation over the Sahel and Huanghe-Huaihe River valley intensifies, owing to ageostrophic secondary cells. The results of this study provide evidence for a consistent and holistic interdecadal change in the Afro-Asian summer monsoon.

Warmed, humidified CO2 insufflation benefits intraoperative core temperature during laparoscopic surgery: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dean, Meara; Ramsay, Robert; Heriot, Alexander; Mackay, John; Hiscock, Richard; Lynch, A Craig

2017-05-01

Intraoperative hypothermia is linked to postoperative adverse events. The use of warmed, humidified CO 2 to establish pneumoperitoneum during laparoscopy has been associated with reduced incidence of intraoperative hypothermia. However, the small number and variable quality of published studies have caused uncertainty about the potential benefit of this therapy. This meta-analysis was conducted to specifically evaluate the effects of warmed, humidified CO 2 during laparoscopy. An electronic database search identified randomized controlled trials performed on adults who underwent laparoscopic abdominal surgery under general anesthesia with either warmed, humidified CO 2 or cold, dry CO 2 . The main outcome measure of interest was change in intraoperative core body temperature. The database search identified 320 studies as potentially relevant, and of these, 13 met the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. During laparoscopic surgery, use of warmed, humidified CO 2 is associated with a significant increase in intraoperative core temperature (mean temperature change, 0.3°C), when compared with cold, dry CO 2 insufflation . CONCLUSION: Warmed, humidified CO 2 insufflation during laparoscopic abdominal surgery has been demonstrated to improve intraoperative maintenance of normothermia when compared with cold, dry CO 2. © 2016 The Authors. Asian Journal of Endoscopic Surgery published by Asia Endosurgery Task Force and Japan Society of Endoscopic Surgery and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Shrub sensitivity to recent warming across Arctic Alaska from dendrochronological and remote sensing records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Goetz, Scott

2017-04-01

Shrub expansion into Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems has been documented during the last several decades based on repeat aerial photography, remote sensing, and ground-truthed estimates of vegetation cover. Today, summer temperatures limit the northern limit of Arctic shrubs, and warmer summers have been shown to have higher NDVI in shrub tundra zones. Although global warming has been considered the main driver of shrub expansion, soil types, shrub species and non-linear responses can moderate how sensitive shrub growth is to climate warming. Here, we assess the sensitivity of shrub growth to inter-annual climate variability using a newly generated network of 18 shrub ring-width chronologies in the tundra regions of the North Slope of Alaska. We then test whether the dendroclimatic patterns we observe at individual sites are representative of the broader region using remotely sensed productivity data (NDVI). The common period of both satellite and shrub ring data from all sites was 1982 to 2010. Instrumental daily data from Toolik Lake and interpolated products was compared to detrended growth rates of Salix spp. (willow) and Alnus sp. (alder), located on and to the west of the Dalton Highway ( 68-70°N 148°W). Whereas summer temperatures were found to enhance shrub growth, warm temperatures outside the core of the growing season have the inverse effect in some chronologies. All tundra shrub chronologies shared a common strong positive response to summer temperatures despite growing in heterogeneous site conditions and belonging to different species. In this work we will discuss shrub climate sensitive across Alaska and how NDVI data compared to the shrub ring-width network.

Mars south polar spring and summer temperatures - A residual CO2 frost

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kieffer, H. H.

1979-01-01

Viking infrared thermal mapper (IRTM) energy measurements over the Mars south polar cap throughout the Martian spring and summer revealed complex spatial, spectral, and temporal variations. High albedos did not directly correspond with low temperatures, and as the cap shrank to its residual position, it maintained large differences in brightness temperature between the four IRTM surface-sensing bands at 7, 9, 11, and 20 microns. The late summer infrared spectral pattern can be matched by a surface consisting of CO2 frost with 20 micron emissivity of 0.8 and about 6% dark, warm soil under a dusty atmosphere of moderate infrared opacity and spectral properties similar to those measured for the Martian global dust storms. Low temperature, the absence of appreciable water vapor in the south polar atmosphere, and the absence of surface warming expected if H2O were to become exposed, all imply that the residual south polar cap was covered by solid CO2.

Strong impacts of daily minimum temperature on the green-up date and summer greenness of the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Shen, Miaogen; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Xiaoqiu; An, Shuai; Fu, Yongshuo H; Wang, Shiping; Cong, Nan; Janssens, Ivan A

2016-09-01

Understanding vegetation responses to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) helps in elucidating the land-atmosphere energy exchange, which affects air mass movement over and around the TP. Although the TP is one of the world's most sensitive regions in terms of climatic warming, little is known about how the vegetation responds. Here, we focus on how spring phenology and summertime greenness respond to the asymmetric warming, that is, stronger warming during nighttime than during daytime. Using both in situ and satellite observations, we found that vegetation green-up date showed a stronger negative partial correlation with daily minimum temperature (Tmin ) than with maximum temperature (Tmax ) before the growing season ('preseason' henceforth). Summer vegetation greenness was strongly positively correlated with summer Tmin , but negatively with Tmax . A 1-K increase in preseason Tmin advanced green-up date by 4 days (P < 0.05) and in summer enhanced greenness by 3.6% relative to the mean greenness during 2000-2004 (P < 0.01). In contrast, increases in preseason Tmax did not advance green-up date (P > 0.10) and higher summer Tmax even reduced greenness by 2.6% K(-1) (P < 0.05). The stimulating effects of increasing Tmin were likely caused by reduced low temperature constraints, and the apparent negative effects of higher Tmax on greenness were probably due to the accompanying decline in water availability. The dominant enhancing effect of nighttime warming indicates that climatic warming will probably have stronger impact on TP ecosystems than on apparently similar Arctic ecosystems where vegetation is controlled mainly by Tmax . Our results are crucial for future improvements of dynamic vegetation models embedded in the Earth System Models which are being used to describe the behavior of the Asian monsoon. The results are significant because the state of the vegetation on the TP plays an important role in steering the monsoon. © 2016 John Wiley

Rapid warming of the world's lakes: Interdecadal variability and long-term trends from 1910-2009 using in situ and remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenters, J. D.; Read, J. S.; Sharma, S.; O'Reilly, C.; Hampton, S. E.; Gray, D.; McIntyre, P. B.; Hook, S. J.; Schneider, P.; Soylu, M. E.; Barabás, N.; Lofton, D. D.

2014-12-01

Global and regional changes in climate have important implications for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Recent studies, for example, have revealed significant warming of inland water bodies throughout the world. To better understand the global patterns, physical mechanisms, and ecological implications of lake warming, an initiative known as the "Global Lake Temperature Collaboration" (GLTC) was started in 2010, with the objective of compiling and analyzing lake temperature data from numerous satellite and in situ records dating back at least 20-30 years. The GLTC project has now assembled data from over 300 lakes, with some in situ records extending back more than 100 years. Here, we present an analysis of the long-term warming trends, interdecadal variability, and a direct comparison between in situ and remotely sensed lake surface temperature for the 3-month summer period July-September (January-March for some lakes). The overall results show consistent, long-term trends of increasing summer-mean lake surface temperature across most but not all sites. Lakes with especially long records show accelerated warming in the most recent two to three decades, with almost half of the lakes warming at rates in excess of 0.5 °C per decade during the period 1985-2009, and a few even exceeding 1.0 °C per decade. Both satellite and in situ data show a similar distribution of warming trends, and a direct comparison at lake sites that have both types of data reveals a close correspondence in mean summer water temperature, interannual variability, and long-term trends. Finally, we examine standardized lake surface temperature anomalies across the full 100-year period (1910-2009), and in conjunction with similar timeseries of air temperature. The results reveal a close correspondence between summer air temperature and lake surface temperature on interannual and interdecadal timescales, but with many lakes warming more rapidly than the ambient air temperature over 25- to 100

COLD WATER PATCHES IN WARM STREAMS: PHYSICOCHEMICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND THE INFLUENCE OF SHADING

EPA Science Inventory

Discrete coldwater patches within the surface waters of summer-warm streams afford potential thermal refuge for coldwater fishes during periods of heat stress. This analysis focused on reach-scale heterogeneity in water temperatures as influenced by local influx of cooler subsur...

Foliar uptake of fog in the coast redwood ecosystem: a novel drought-alleviation strategy shared by most redwood forest plants

Treesearch

Emily Limm; Kevin Simonin; Tod Dawson

2012-01-01

Fog inundates the coast redwood forests of northern California frequently during the summer months (May to September) when rainfall is largely absent (Azevedo and Morgan 1974, Byers 1953, Oberlander 1956). This maritime fog modifies otherwise warm and dry summer climate by increasing humidity, decreasing the air temperature, reducing solar radiation, and...

Rising Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures Amplify Extreme Summer Precipitation in Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volosciuk, Claudia; Maraun, Douglas; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Tilinina, Natalia; Gulev, Sergey K.; Latif, Mojib

2016-08-01

The beginning of the 21st century was marked by a number of severe summer floods in Central Europe associated with extreme precipitation (e.g., Elbe 2002, Oder 2010 and Danube 2013). Extratropical storms, known as Vb-cyclones, cause summer extreme precipitation events over Central Europe and can thus lead to such floodings. Vb-cyclones develop over the Mediterranean Sea, which itself strongly warmed during recent decades. Here we investigate the influence of increased Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (SST) on extreme precipitation events in Central Europe. To this end, we carry out atmosphere model simulations forced by average Mediterranean SSTs during 1970-1999 and 2000-2012. Extreme precipitation events occurring on average every 20 summers in the warmer-SST-simulation (2000-2012) amplify along the Vb-cyclone track compared to those in the colder-SST-simulation (1970-1999), on average by 17% in Central Europe. The largest increase is located southeast of maximum precipitation for both simulated heavy events and historical Vb-events. The responsible physical mechanism is increased evaporation from and enhanced atmospheric moisture content over the Mediterranean Sea. The excess in precipitable water is transported from the Mediterranean Sea to Central Europe causing stronger precipitation extremes over that region. Our findings suggest that Mediterranean Sea surface warming amplifies Central European precipitation extremes.

Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Reilly, Catherine; Sharma, Sapna; Gray, Derek; Hampton, Stephanie; Read, Jordan S.; Rowley, Rex J.; Schneider, Philipp; Lenters, John D.; McIntyre, Peter B.; Kraemer, Benjamin M.; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Straile, Dietmar; Dong, Bo; Adrian, Rita; Allan, Mathew G.; Anneville, Orlane; Arvola, Lauri; Austin, Jay; Bailey, John L.; Baron, Jill S.; Brookes, Justin D; de Eyto, Elvira; Dokulil, Martin T.; Hamilton, David P.; Havens, Karl; Hetherington, Amy L.; Higgins, Scott N.; Hook, Simon; Izmest'eva, Lyubov R.; Jöhnk, Klaus D.; Kangur, Külli; Kasprzak, Peter; Kumagai, Michio; Kuusisto, Esko; Leshkevich, George; Livingstone, David M.; MacIntyre, Sally; May, Linda; Melack, John M.; Mueller-Navara, Doerthe C.; Naumenko, Mikhail; Noges, Peeter; Noges, Tiina; North, Ryan P.; Plisnier, Pierre-Denis; Rigosi, Anna; Rimmer, Alon; Rogora, Michela; Rudstam, Lars G.; Rusak, James A.; Salmaso, Nico; Samal, Nihar R.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Schladow, Geoffrey; Schmid, Martin; Schmidt, Silke R.; Silow, Eugene A.; Soylu, M. Evren; Teubner, Katrin; Verburg, Piet; Voutilainen, Ari; Watkinson, Andrew; Williamson, Craig E.; Zhang, Guoqing

2015-01-01

In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite-derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade−1) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors—from seasonally ice-covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade−1) to ice-free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade−1). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes.

Effect of whole-body vibration warm-up on bat speed in women softball players.

PubMed

Dabbs, Nicole C; Brown, Lee E; Coburn, Jared W; Lynn, Scott K; Biagini, Matt S; Tran, Tai T

2010-09-01

Whole-body vibration (WBV) may enhance human performance via augmented muscular strength and motor function if used before performance. Because warm-up is a crucial aspect of preparation for performance, it remains unknown if WBV may enhance bat speed. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of WBV warm-up on bat speed. Eleven National Collegiate Athletic Association division I and 11 recreationally trained female softball players volunteered to participate. Subjects randomly performed 3 different warm-up conditions consisting of WBV alone, dry swings alone (DS), and WBV with dry swings (WBVDS). Whole-body vibration was performed on a pivotal vibration platform at a frequency of 25 Hz and an amplitude of 13 mm for one 30-second bout. Thirty seconds after each warm-up condition, 5 maximal bat swings were recorded. There was no significant (p > 0.05) difference between groups by training status, and there was no significant (p > 0.05) difference between WBV (42.39 +/- 9.83 mph), DS (40.45 +/- 11.00 mph), or WBVDS (37.98 +/- 12.40 mph) conditions. These results indicate that WBV warm-up may be used in place of DS to achieve similar bat speeds. Future research should investigate different combinations of WBV warm-up using various frequencies, durations, amplitudes, and rest times.

From the Lab Bench: A special use for warm-season grasses

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A column was written to discuss the uses of warm-season annual and perennial grasses in Kentucky. These grasses are typically planted in small acreages on a farm to provide grazing during the summer slump in growth of tall fescue pastures. Moving cattle from toxic endophyte-infected tall fescue pa...

Desert Amplification in a Warming Climate

PubMed Central

Zhou, Liming

2016-01-01

Here I analyze the observed and projected surface temperature anomalies over land between 50°S-50°N for the period 1950–2099 by large-scale ecoregion and find strongest warming consistently and persistently seen over driest ecoregions such as the Sahara desert and the Arabian Peninsula during various 30-year periods, pointing to desert amplification in a warming climate. This amplification enhances linearly with the global mean greenhouse gases(GHGs) radiative forcing and is attributable primarily to a stronger GHGs-enhanced downward longwave radiation forcing reaching the surface over drier ecoregions as a consequence of a warmer and thus moister atmosphere in response to increasing GHGs. These results indicate that desert amplification may represent a fundamental pattern of global warming associated with water vapor feedbacks over land in low- and mid- latitudes where surface warming rates depend inversely on ecosystem dryness. It is likely that desert amplification might involve two types of water vapor feedbacks that maximize respectively in the tropical upper troposphere and near the surface over deserts, with both being very dry and thus extremely sensitive to changes of water vapor. PMID:27538725

Continuous but diverse advancement of spring-summer phenology in response to climate warming across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

DOE PAGES

Zheng, Zhoutao; Zhu, Wenquan; Chen, Guangsheng; ...

2016-04-25

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is more vulnerable and sensitive to climate change than many other regions worldwide because of its high altitude, permafrost geography, and harsh physical environment. As a sensitive bio-indicator of climate change, plant phenology shift in this region has been intensively studied during the recent decades, primarily based on satellite-retrieved data. However, great controversy still exists regarding the change in direction and magnitudes of spring-summer phenology. Based on a large number (11,000+ records) of long-term and continuous ground observational data for various plant species, our study intended to more comprehensively assess the changing trends of spring-summer phenologymore » and their relationships with climatic change across the QTP. The results indicated a continuous advancement (–2.69 days decade –1) in spring-summer phenology from 1981 to 2011, with an even more rapid advancement during 2000–2011 (–3.13 days decade –1), which provided new field evidence for continuous advancement in spring-summer phenology across the QTP. However, diverse advancing rates in spring-summer phenology were observed for different vegetation types, thermal conditions, and seasons. The advancing trends matched well with the difference in sensitivity of spring-summer phenology to increasing temperature, implying that the sensitivity of phenology to temperature was one of the major factors influencing spring-summer phenology shifts. Besides, increased precipitation could advance the spring-summer phenology. As a result, the response of spring-summer phenology to temperature tended to be stronger from east to west across all species, while the response to precipitation showed no consistent spatial pattern.« less

Continuous but diverse advancement of spring-summer phenology in response to climate warming across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zheng, Zhoutao; Zhu, Wenquan; Chen, Guangsheng

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is more vulnerable and sensitive to climate change than many other regions worldwide because of its high altitude, permafrost geography, and harsh physical environment. As a sensitive bio-indicator of climate change, plant phenology shift in this region has been intensively studied during the recent decades, primarily based on satellite-retrieved data. However, great controversy still exists regarding the change in direction and magnitudes of spring-summer phenology. Based on a large number (11,000+ records) of long-term and continuous ground observational data for various plant species, our study intended to more comprehensively assess the changing trends of spring-summer phenologymore » and their relationships with climatic change across the QTP. The results indicated a continuous advancement (–2.69 days decade –1) in spring-summer phenology from 1981 to 2011, with an even more rapid advancement during 2000–2011 (–3.13 days decade –1), which provided new field evidence for continuous advancement in spring-summer phenology across the QTP. However, diverse advancing rates in spring-summer phenology were observed for different vegetation types, thermal conditions, and seasons. The advancing trends matched well with the difference in sensitivity of spring-summer phenology to increasing temperature, implying that the sensitivity of phenology to temperature was one of the major factors influencing spring-summer phenology shifts. Besides, increased precipitation could advance the spring-summer phenology. As a result, the response of spring-summer phenology to temperature tended to be stronger from east to west across all species, while the response to precipitation showed no consistent spatial pattern.« less

Sensitivity of Asian Summer Monsoon precipitation to tropical sea surface temperature anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Lei; Shin, Sang-Ik; Liu, Zhengyu; Liu, Qinyu

2016-10-01

Sensitivity of Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) precipitation to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies was estimated from ensemble simulations of two atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) with an array of idealized SST anomaly patch prescriptions. Consistent sensitivity patterns were obtained in both models. Sensitivity of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation to cooling in the East Pacific was much weaker than to that of the same magnitude in the local Indian-western Pacific, over which a meridional pattern of warm north and cold south was most instrumental in increasing ISM precipitation. This indicates that the strength of the ENSO-ISM relationship is due to the large-amplitude East Pacific SST anomaly rather than its sensitivity value. Sensitivity of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), represented by the Yangtze-Huai River Valley (YHRV, also known as the meiyu-baiu front) precipitation, is non-uniform across the Indian Ocean basin. YHRV precipitation was most sensitive to warm SST anomalies over the northern Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, whereas the southern Indian Ocean had the opposite effect. This implies that the strengthened EASM in the post-Niño year is attributable mainly to warming of the northern Indian Ocean. The corresponding physical links between these SST anomaly patterns and ASM precipitation were also discussed. The relevance of sensitivity maps was justified by the high correlation between sensitivity-map-based reconstructed time series using observed SST anomaly patterns and actual precipitation series derived from ensemble-mean atmospheric GCM runs with time-varying global SST prescriptions during the same period. The correlation results indicated that sensitivity maps derived from patch experiments were far superior to those based on regression methods.

Fall season atypically warm weather event leads to substantial CH4 loss in Arctic ecosystems?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zona, Donatella; Moreaux, Virginie; Liljedahl, Anna; Losacco, Salvatore; Murphy, Patrick; Oechel, Walter

2014-05-01

In the last century (during 1875-2008) high-latitudes are warming at a rate of 1.360C century-1, almost 2 times faster than the Northern Hemisphere trend (Bekryaev et al., 2010). This warming has been more intense outside of the summer season, with anomalies of 1.09, 1.59, 1.730C in the fall, winter, and spring season respectively (Bekryaev et al., 2010). This substantial temperature anomalies have the potential to increase the emission of greenhouse gas (CO2 and CH4) fluxes from arctic tundra ecosystems. In particular, CH4 emissions, which are primarily controlled by temperature (in addition to water table), can steeply increase with warming. Despite the potential relevance of CH4 emissions, very few measurements have been performed outside of the growing season across the entire Arctic, due to logistic constrains. Importantly, no flux measurements achieved a temporal and spatial data coverage sufficient to estimate with confidence an annual CH4 emissions from tundra ecosystem in Alaska, and its sensitivity to warming. Fall 2013 was unusually warm in central and northern Alaska. Following a relatively warm summer with dramatically above-average rainfall, the October mean monthly temperatures was the 4th and top warmest in Barrow (1949-2013) and Ivotuk (1998-2013), respectively. As we just upgraded several eddy covariance towers to measure CO2 and CH4 fluxes year-round, the atypical weather conditions of fall 2013 represented a unique chance for testing the sensitivity of CH4 loss to these atypically warm temperatures. All our sites across a latitudinal gradient (from the northern site, Barrow, to the southern site, Ivotuk), presented substantial CH4 loss in the fall. Importantly, in two of these sites (Barrow, Ivotuk) where the fall weather was substantially warmer than the long term trend, fall CH4 emission represented between 44-63% of the June-November cumulative emission. Surprisingly, in the southernmost site (Ivotuk), when the temperature anomaly was the

Competitive ability of tall fescue against alfalfa as a function of summer dormancy, endophyte infection and soil moisture availability

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Summer-dormant cool-season grasses might be a viable component of pasture if Mediterranean and Mediterranean-type environments with relative mild winters and hot and dry summers. Management practices for summer-dormant forages are being developed, including production strategies with compatible leg...

Ten-year variability in ecosystem water use efficiency in an oak-dominated temperate forest under a warming climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, Jing; Chen, Jiquan; Sun, Ge

The impacts of extreme weather events on water-carbon (C) coupling and ecosystem-scale water use efficiency (WUE) over a long term are poorly understood. We analyzed the changes in ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) from 10 years of eddy-covariance measurements (2004-2013) over an oak-dominated temperate forest in Ohio, USA. The aim was to investigate the long-term response of ecosystem WUE to measured changes in site-biophysical conditions and ecosystem attributes. The oak forest produced new plant biomass of 2.5 +/- 0.2 gC kg(-1) of water loss annually. Monthly evapotranspiration (ET) and gross ecosystem production (GEP) were tightly coupled over the 10-year studymore » period (R-2=0.94). Daily WUE had a linear relationship with air temperature (T-a) in low-temperature months and a unimodal relationship with T-a in high-temperature months during the growing season. On average, daily WUE ceased to increase when T-a exceeded 22 degrees C in warm months for both wet and dry years. Monthly WUE had a strong positive linear relationship with leaf area index (LAI), net radiation (R-n), and T-a and weak logarithmic relationship with water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and precipitation (P) on a growing-season basis. When exploring the regulatory mechanisms on WUE within each season, spring LAI and P, summer R-n and T-a, and autumnal VPD and R-n were found to be the main explanatory variables for seasonal variation in WUE. The model developed in this study was able to capture 78% of growing-season variation in WUE on a monthly basis. The negative correlation between WUE and A in spring was mainly due to the high precipitation amounts in spring, decreasing GEP and WUE when LAI was still small, adding ET being observed to increase with high levels of evaporation as a result of high SWC in spring. Summer WUE had a significant decreasing trend across the 10 years mainly due to the combined effect of seasonal drought and increasing potential and available energy increasing

Ten-year variability in ecosystem water use efficiency in an oak-dominated temperate forest under a warming climate

DOE PAGES

Xie, Jing; Chen, Jiquan; Sun, Ge; ...

2016-01-07

The impacts of extreme weather events on water-carbon (C) coupling and ecosystem-scale water use efficiency (WUE) over a long term are poorly understood. We analyzed the changes in ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) from 10 years of eddy-covariance measurements (2004-2013) over an oak-dominated temperate forest in Ohio, USA. The aim was to investigate the long-term response of ecosystem WUE to measured changes in site-biophysical conditions and ecosystem attributes. The oak forest produced new plant biomass of 2.5 +/- 0.2 gC kg(-1) of water loss annually. Monthly evapotranspiration (ET) and gross ecosystem production (GEP) were tightly coupled over the 10-year studymore » period (R-2=0.94). Daily WUE had a linear relationship with air temperature (T-a) in low-temperature months and a unimodal relationship with T-a in high-temperature months during the growing season. On average, daily WUE ceased to increase when T-a exceeded 22 degrees C in warm months for both wet and dry years. Monthly WUE had a strong positive linear relationship with leaf area index (LAI), net radiation (R-n), and T-a and weak logarithmic relationship with water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and precipitation (P) on a growing-season basis. When exploring the regulatory mechanisms on WUE within each season, spring LAI and P, summer R-n and T-a, and autumnal VPD and R-n were found to be the main explanatory variables for seasonal variation in WUE. The model developed in this study was able to capture 78% of growing-season variation in WUE on a monthly basis. The negative correlation between WUE and A in spring was mainly due to the high precipitation amounts in spring, decreasing GEP and WUE when LAI was still small, adding ET being observed to increase with high levels of evaporation as a result of high SWC in spring. Summer WUE had a significant decreasing trend across the 10 years mainly due to the combined effect of seasonal drought and increasing potential and available energy increasing

Asian Summer Monsoon Anomalies Induced by Aerosol Direct Forcing: The Role of the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Kim, M. K.; Kim, K. M.

2006-01-01

In this paper we present results of a numerical study using the NASA finite-volume GCM to elucidate a plausible mechanism for aerosol impact on the Asian summer monsoon involving interaction with physical processes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). During the premonsoon season of March April, dusts from the deserts of western China, Afghanistan/Pakistan, and the Middle East are transported into and stacked up against the northern and southern slopes of the TP. The absorption of solar radiation by dust heats up the elevated surface air over the slopes. On the southern slopes, the atmospheric heating is reinforced by black carbon from local emission. The heated air rises via dry convection, creating a positive temperature anomaly in the mid-to-upper troposphere over the TP relative to the region to the south. In May through early June in a manner akin to an elevated heat pump , the rising hot air forced by the increasing heating in the upper troposphere, draws in warm and moist air over the Indian subcontinent, setting the stage for the onset of the South Asia summer monsoon. Our results suggest that increased dust loading coupled with black carbon emission from local sources in northern India during late spring may lead to an advance of the rainy periods and subsequently an intensification of the Indian summer monsoon. The enhanced rainfall over India is associated with the development of an aerosol-induced large-scale sea level pressure anomaly pattern, which causes the East Asia (Mei-yu) rain belt to shift northwestward, suppressing rainfall over East Asia and the adjacent oceanic regions.

Ecohydrology and biogeochemistry of seasonally-dry ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Porporato, A. M.

2010-12-01

The composition and the dynamic in various types of seasonally dry ecosystems are largely determined by rainfall seasonality and distribution. The intermittency of rainfall in these ecosystems has played a dominant role in the life cycle of native plants such that phenological events such as growth or reproduction have oftentimes become synchronized with the onset of the dry or the wet season. Characteristic amongst such types of ecosystems are the tropical dry and Mediterranean ecosystems, both of which receive similar amount of precipitation yet are markedly distinct in their synchronization of rainfall fluctuations and temperature. Seasonally dry ecosystems cover more than 16 million square kilometers in the tropics, with short but intense wet seasons followed by long dry seasons and elevated temperature throughout the year. Native vegetation grows during the wet season and adopts dormancy or seasonal deciduousness to cope with the dry season. In the Mediterranean climates, precipitations and temperature are out of phase, with wet temperate winters and hot dry summers. Dimorphic root systems are prevalent, where deep rooted plants exploit the winter recharge while the shallow rooted species take advantage of the infrequent summer rains. Using a stochastic soil moisture model we analyze how temporal shifts, or the lack thereof, in temperature and precipitation patterns affect the development of water stress during the dry season and its feedbacks on soil-plant biogeochemistry. We especially focus on the role of differences in temperature and seasonal potential evapotranspiration between tropical dry and Mediterranean climates. We also compare irrigation needs and the effects of projected climatic conditions in those regions. Understanding how plants adopt different water use strategies in the context of shifted climatic patterns will shed light on how these regions of high biodiversity may cope with rapidly-changing climatic conditions.

A geochemical record of the link between chemical weathering and the East Asian summer monsoon during the late Holocene preserved in lacustrine sediments from Poyang Lake, central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chao; Wei, Gangjian; Li, Wuxian; Liu, Ying

2018-04-01

This paper presents relatively high-resolution geochemical records spanning the past 4000 cal yr BP obtained from the lacustrine sediments of Poyang Lake in central China. The variations in the intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are traced using the K/Na, Ti/Na, Al/K, kaolinite/illite and clay/feldspar ratios, together with the chemical index of alteration (CIA), as indicators of chemical weathering. During the last 4000 years, the proxy records of chemical weathering from Poyang Lake exhibit an overall enhanced trend, consistent with regional hydrological changes in previous independent records. Further comparisons and analyses demonstrate that regional moisture variations in central China is inversely correlated with the EASM intensity, with weak EASM generating high precipitation in central China. Our data reveal three intervals of dramatically dry climatic conditions (i.e., ca. 4000-3200 cal yr BP, ca. 2800-2400 cal yr BP, and ca. 500-200 cal yr BP). A period of weak chemical weathering, related to cold and dry climatic conditions, occurred during the Little Ice Age (LIA), whereas more intense chemical weathering, reflecting warm and humid climatic conditions, was recorded during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). Besides, an intensification of chemical weathering in Poyang Lake during the late Holocene agrees well with strong ENSO activity, suggesting that moisture variations in central China may be predominantly driven by ENSO variability.

Summer temperature variation and implications for juvenile Atlantic salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mather, M. E.; Parrish, D.L.; Campbell, C.A.; McMenemy, J.R.; Smith, Joseph M.

2008-01-01

Temperature is important to fish in determining their geographic distribution. For cool- and cold-water fish, thermal regimes are especially critical at the southern end of a species' range. Although temperature is an easy variable to measure, biological interpretation is difficult. Thus, how to determine what temperatures are meaningful to fish in the field is a challenge. Herein, we used the Connecticut River as a model system and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) as a model species with which to assess the effects of summer temperatures on the density of age 0 parr. Specifically, we asked: (1) What are the spatial and temporal temperature patterns in the Connecticut River during summer? (2) What metrics might detect effects of high temperatures? and (3) How is temperature variability related to density of Atlantic salmon during their first summer? Although the most southern site was the warmest, some northern sites were also warm, and some southern sites were moderately cool. This suggests localized, within basin variation in temperature. Daily and hourly means showed extreme values not apparent in the seasonal means. We observed significant relationships between age 0 parr density and days at potentially stressful, warm temperatures (???23??C). Based on these results, we propose that useful field reference points need to incorporate the synergistic effect of other stressors that fish encounter in the field as well as the complexity associated with cycling temperatures and thermal refuges. Understanding the effects of temperature may aid conservation efforts for Atlantic salmon in the Connecticut River and other North Atlantic systems. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

In Situ Warming and Soil Venting to Enhance the Biodegradation of JP-4 in Cold Climates: A Critical Study and Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-12-01

1178-1180 (1991). Atlas , Ronald M. and Richard Bartha . Microbial Ecology : Fundamentals and Applications. 3d ed. Redwood City CA: The Benjamin/Cummings...technique called bioventing. In cold climates, in situ bioremediation is limited to the summer when soil temperatures are sufficient to support microbial ...actively warmed the soil -- warm water circulation and heat tape; the other passively warmed the plot with insulatory covers. Microbial respiration (02

Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming.

PubMed

Graversen, Rune G; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Tjernström, Michael; Källén, Erland; Svensson, Gunilla

2008-01-03

Near-surface warming in the Arctic has been almost twice as large as the global average over recent decades-a phenomenon that is known as the 'Arctic amplification'. The underlying causes of this temperature amplification remain uncertain. The reduction in snow and ice cover that has occurred over recent decades may have played a role. Climate model experiments indicate that when global temperature rises, Arctic snow and ice cover retreats, causing excessive polar warming. Reduction of the snow and ice cover causes albedo changes, and increased refreezing of sea ice during the cold season and decreases in sea-ice thickness both increase heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere. Changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation, as well as cloud cover, have also been proposed to cause Arctic temperature amplification. Here we examine the vertical structure of temperature change in the Arctic during the late twentieth century using reanalysis data. We find evidence for temperature amplification well above the surface. Snow and ice feedbacks cannot be the main cause of the warming aloft during the greater part of the year, because these feedbacks are expected to primarily affect temperatures in the lowermost part of the atmosphere, resulting in a pattern of warming that we only observe in spring. A significant proportion of the observed temperature amplification must therefore be explained by mechanisms that induce warming above the lowermost part of the atmosphere. We regress the Arctic temperature field on the atmospheric energy transport into the Arctic and find that, in the summer half-year, a significant proportion of the vertical structure of warming can be explained by changes in this variable. We conclude that changes in atmospheric heat transport may be an important cause of the recent Arctic temperature amplification.

Climate warming could increase recruitment success in glacier foreland plants.

PubMed

Mondoni, Andrea; Pedrini, Simone; Bernareggi, Giulietta; Rossi, Graziano; Abeli, Thomas; Probert, Robin J; Ghitti, Michele; Bonomi, Costantino; Orsenigo, Simone

2015-11-01

Glacier foreland plants are highly threatened by global warming. Regeneration from seeds on deglaciated terrain will be crucial for successful migration and survival of these species, and hence a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on seedling recruitment is urgently needed to predict future plant persistence in these environments. This study presents the first field evidence of the impact of climate change on recruitment success of glacier foreland plants. Seeds of eight foreland species were sown on a foreland site at 2500 m a.s.l., and at a site 400 m lower in altitude to simulate a 2·7 °C increase in mean annual temperature. Soil from the site of origin was used to reproduce the natural germination substrate. Recruitment success, temperature and water potential were monitored for 2 years. The response of seed germination to warming was further investigated in the laboratory. At the glacier foreland site, seedling emergence was low (0 to approx. 40 %) and occurred in summer in all species after seeds had experienced autumn and winter seasons. However, at the warmer site there was a shift from summer to autumn emergence in two species and a significant increase of summer emergence (13-35 % higher) in all species except two. Survival and establishment was possible for 60-75 % of autumn-emerged seedlings and was generally greater under warmer conditions. Early snowmelt in spring caused the main ecological factors enhancing the recruitment success. The results suggest that warming will influence the recruitment of glacier foreland species primarily via the extension of the snow-free period in spring, which increases seedling establishment and results in a greater resistance to summer drought and winter extremes. The changes in recruitment success observed here imply that range shifts or changes in abundance are possible in a future warmer climate, but overall success may be dependent on interactions with shifts in other components of the

Transient regional climate change: analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble experiment over the continental United States

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Scherer, Martin

2013-01-01

Integrating the potential for climate change impacts into policy and planning decisions requires quantification of the emergence of sub-regional climate changes that could occur in response to transient changes in global radiative forcing. Here we report results from a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble simulation of climate in the United States, forced by atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. We find that 21st century summer warming permanently emerges beyond the baseline decadal-scale variability prior to 2020 over most areas of the continental U.S. Permanent emergence beyond the baseline annual-scale variability shows much greater spatial heterogeneity, with emergence occurring prior to 2030 over areas of the southwestern U.S., but not prior to the end of the 21st century over much of the southcentral and southeastern U.S. The pattern of emergence of robust summer warming contrasts with the pattern of summer warming magnitude, which is greatest over the central U.S. and smallest over the western U.S. In addition to stronger warming, the central U.S. also exhibits stronger coupling of changes in surface air temperature, precipitation, and moisture and energy fluxes, along with changes in atmospheric circulation towards increased anticylonic anomalies in the mid-troposphere and a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet aloft. However, as a fraction of the baseline variability, the transient warming over the central U.S. is smaller than the warming over the southwestern or northeastern U.S., delaying the emergence of the warming signal over the central U.S. Our comparisons with observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble of global climate model experiments suggest that near-term global warming is likely to cause robust sub-regional-scale warming over areas that exhibit relatively little baseline variability. In contrast, where there is greater

Contrasting sea-ice and open-water boundary layers during melt and freeze-up seasons: Some result from the Arctic Clouds in Summer Experiment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tjernström, Michael; Sotiropoulou, Georgia; Sedlar, Joseph; Achtert, Peggy; Brooks, Barbara; Brooks, Ian; Persson, Ola; Prytherch, John; Salsbury, Dominic; Shupe, Matthew; Johnston, Paul; Wolfe, Dan

2016-04-01

With more open water present in the Arctic summer, an understanding of atmospheric processes over open-water and sea-ice surfaces as summer turns into autumn and ice starts forming becomes increasingly important. The Arctic Clouds in Summer Experiment (ACSE) was conducted in a mix of open water and sea ice in the eastern Arctic along the Siberian shelf during late summer and early autumn 2014, providing detailed observations of the seasonal transition, from melt to freeze. Measurements were taken over both ice-free and ice-covered surfaces, offering an insight to the role of the surface state in shaping the lower troposphere and the boundary-layer conditions as summer turned into autumn. During summer, strong surface inversions persisted over sea ice, while well-mixed boundary layers capped by elevated inversions were frequent over open-water. The former were often associated with advection of warm air from adjacent open-water or land surfaces, whereas the latter were due to a positive buoyancy flux from the warm ocean surface. Fog and stratus clouds often persisted over the ice, whereas low-level liquid-water clouds developed over open water. These differences largely disappeared in autumn, when mixed-phase clouds capped by elevated inversions dominated in both ice-free and ice-covered conditions. Low-level-jets occurred ~20-25% of the time in both seasons. The observations indicate that these jets were typically initiated at air-mass boundaries or along the ice edge in autumn, while in summer they appeared to be inertial oscillations initiated by partial frictional decoupling as warm air was advected in over the sea ice. The start of the autumn season was related to an abrupt change in atmospheric conditions, rather than to the gradual change in solar radiation. The autumn onset appeared as a rapid cooling of the whole atmosphere and the freeze up followed as the warm surface lost heat to the atmosphere. While the surface type had a pronounced impact on boundary

Relations between winter climatic variables and April streamflows in New England and implications for summer streamflows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Luther F.

2012-01-01

A period of much below normal streamflow in southern New England during April 2012 raised concerns that a long-term period of drought could evolve through late spring and summer, leading to potential water availability issues. To understand better the relations between winter climatic variables and April streamflows, April streamflows from 31 streamflow gages in New England that drain relatively natural watersheds were tested for year-to-year correlation with winter precipitation and air temperature from nearby meteorological sites. Higher winter (December through March) precipitation is associated with higher April streamflows at many gages in northern and central New England. This implies that snowpack accumulation is an important mechanism for winter water storage and subsequently important for spring streamflows in this area. Higher March air temperatures are associated with lower April streamflows at many gages in central and southern New England, likely because the majority of snowmelt runoff occurs before April in warm years. A warm March 2012 contributed to early snowmelt runoff in New England and to much below normal April streamflows in southern New England. However, no strong relation was found between historical April streamflows and late-spring or summer streamflows in New England. The lack of a strong relation implies that summer precipitation, rather than spring conditions, controls summer streamflows.

Increased frequency of ENSO-related hydroclimate extremes in a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Q.; Miao, C.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Global warming will likely alter surface warming in tropical Pacific regions, leading to changes in the characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics and an incresed frequency of extreme ENSO events. The ENSO-related climatic variation and associated impacts will likely be modified in a warmer climatic state. However, little is known about the effect of changes in ENSO teleconnections with regard to future dry and wet conditions over land around the globe, especially outside tropical regions. We used the model simulations of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for different twenty-first-century emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to investigate the changes in the ENSO' teleconnection on dry/wet condition over global land. Our results show that 64.64% and 38.12% of 181 river basins studied are expected to experience an increase in the frequency of unusually wet/dry events forced by both ENSO phases under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The anomalous precipitation variability forced by ENSO events will be intensified through a "wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier" mechanism over west North America, South America, central Asia, and west Asia. More than 850 million people are at risk of exposure to unusually dry/wet events. There is a potential increased risk of high-intensity dry/wet events, with an increase/decrease in the 50-year return level of SPI value for drying/wetting regions. These results have important implications for disaster evaluation and related policies and for appropriate engineering design.

Atmospheric Circulation Patterns over East Asia and Their Connection with Summer Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature in Eastern China during 1961-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuping; Hou, Wei; Feng, Guolin

2018-04-01

Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Chinese observational data during 1961-2013, atmospheric circulation patterns over East Asia in summer and their connection with precipitation and surface air temperature in eastern China as well as associated external forcing are investigated. Three patterns of the atmospheric circulation are identified, all with quasi-barotropic structures: (1) the East Asia/Pacific (EAP) pattern, (2) the Baikal Lake/Okhotsk Sea (BLOS) pattern, and (3) the eastern China/northern Okhotsk Sea (ECNOS) pattern. The positive EAP pattern significantly increases precipitation over the Yangtze River valley and favors cooling north of the Yangtze River and warming south of the Yangtze River in summer. The warm sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean suppress convection over the northwestern subtropical Pacific through the Ekman divergence induced by a Kelvin wave and excite the EAP pattern. The positive BLOS pattern is associated with below-average precipitation south of the Yangtze River and robust cooling over northeastern China. This pattern is triggered by anomalous spring sea ice concentration in the northern Barents Sea. The anomalous sea ice concentration contributes to a Rossby wave activity flux originating from the Greenland Sea, which propagates eastward to North Pacific. The positive ECNOS pattern leads to below-average precipitation and significant warming over northeastern China in summer. The reduced soil moisture associated with the earlier spring snowmelt enhances surface warming over Mongolia and northeastern China and the later spring snowmelt leads to surface cooling over Far East in summer, both of which are responsible for the formation of the ECNOS pattern.

Intensified impact of tropical Atlantic SST on the western North Pacific summer climate under a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Wei; Lee, June-Yi; Lu, Riyu; Dong, Buwen; Ha, Kyung-Ja

2015-10-01

The tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) has been identified as one of regulators on the boreal summer climate over the western North Pacific (WNP), in addition to SSTs in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. The major physical process proposed is that the TNA warming induces a pair of cyclonic circulation anomaly over the eastern Pacific and negative precipitation anomalies over the eastern to central tropical Pacific, which in turn lead to an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the western to central North Pacific. This study further demonstrates that the modulation of the TNA warming to the WNP summer climate anomaly tends to be intensified under background of the weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) by using a water-hosing experiment. The results suggest that the weakened THC induces a decrease in thermocline depth over the TNA region, resulting in the enhanced sensitivity of SST variability to wind anomalies and thus intensification of the interannual variation of TNA SST. Under the weakened THC, the atmospheric responses to the TNA warming are westward shifted, enhancing the anticyclonic circulation and negative precipitation anomaly over the WNP. This study supports the recent finding that the negative phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation after the late 1960s has been favourable for the strengthening of the connection between TNA SST variability and WNP summer climate and has important implications for seasonal prediction and future projection of the WNP summer climate.

A Subambient Open Roof Surface under the Mid-Summer Sun.

PubMed

Gentle, Angus R; Smith, Geoff B

2015-09-01

A novel material open to warm air stays below ambient temperature under maximum solar intensities of mid-summer. It is found to be 11 °C cooler than a commercial white cool roof nearby. A combination of specially chosen polymers and a silver thin film yields values near 100% for both solar reflectance, and thermal emittance at infrared wavelengths from 7.9 to 13 μm.

Influence of Lake Stratification Onset on Summer Surface Water Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woolway, R. I.; Merchant, C. J.

2016-12-01

Summer lake surface water temperatures (LSSWT) are sensitive to climatic warming and have previously been shown to increase at a faster rate than surface air temperatures in some lakes, as a response to thermal stratification occurring earlier in spring. We explore this relationship using a combination of in situ, satellite derived, and simulated temperatures from 144 lakes. Our results demonstrate that LSSWTs of high-latitude and large deep lakes are particularly sensitive to changes in stratification onset and can be expected to display an amplified response to climatic changes in summer air temperature. Climatic modification of LSSWT has numerous consequences for water quality and lake ecosystems, so quantifying this amplified response is important.

Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of the Northern Continents: Structure and Mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

2017-12-01

The linear trend in twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT)—a key secular warming signal— exhibits striking seasonal variations over Northern Hemisphere continents; SAT trends are pronounced in winter and spring but notably weaker in summer and fall. The SAT trends in historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's Fifth Assessment show varied (and often unrealistic) strength and structure, and markedly weaker seasonal variation. The large intra-ensemble spread of winter SAT trends in some historical simulations was surprising, especially in the context of century-long linear trends, with implications for the detection of the secular warming signal. The striking seasonality of observed secular warming over northern continents warrants an explanation and the representation of related processes in climate models. Here, the seasonality of SAT trends over North America is shown to result from land surface-hydroclimate interactions and, to an extent, also from the secular change in low-level atmospheric circulation and related thermal advection. It is argued that the winter dormancy and summer vigor of the hydrologic cycle over middle- to high-latitude continents permit different responses to the additional incident radiative energy from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal cycle of climate, despite its monotony, provides an expanded phase space for the exposition of the dynamical and thermodynamical processes generating secular warming, and an exceptional cost-effective opportunity for benchmarking climate projection models.

Mountain-climbing bears protect cherry species from global warming through vertical seed dispersal.

PubMed

Naoe, Shoji; Tayasu, Ichiro; Sakai, Yoichiro; Masaki, Takashi; Kobayashi, Kazuki; Nakajima, Akiko; Sato, Yoshikazu; Yamazaki, Koji; Kiyokawa, Hiroki; Koike, Shinsuke

2016-04-25

In a warming climate, temperature-sensitive plants must move toward colder areas, that is, higher latitude or altitude, by seed dispersal [1]. Considering that the temperature drop with increasing altitude (-0.65°C per 100 m altitude) is one hundred to a thousand times larger than that of the equivalent latitudinal distance [2], vertical seed dispersal is probably a key process for plant escape from warming temperatures. In fact, plant geographical distributions are tracking global warming altitudinally rather than latitudinally, and the extent of tracking is considered to be large in plants with better-dispersed traits (e.g., lighter seeds in wind-dispersed plants) [1]. However, no study has evaluated vertical seed dispersal itself due to technical difficulty or high cost. Here, we show using a stable oxygen isotope that black bears disperse seeds of wild cherry over several hundred meters vertically, and that the dispersal direction is heavily biased towards the mountain tops. Mountain climbing by bears following spring-to-summer plant phenology is likely the cause of this biased seed dispersal. These results suggest that spring- and summer-fruiting plants dispersed by animals may have high potential to escape global warming. Our results also indicate that the direction of vertical seed dispersal can be unexpectedly biased, and highlight the importance of considering seed dispersal direction to understand plant responses to past and future climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of sorghum grain decortication on bioethanol production and quality of the distillers' dried grains with solubles using cold and conventional warm starch processing.

PubMed

Nkomba, Edouard Y; van Rensburg, Eugéne; Chimphango, Annie F A; Görgens, Johann F

2016-03-01

Very high gravity hydrolysis-fermentation of whole and decorticated sorghum grains were compared using conventional and cold hydrolysis methods to assess the extent by which decortication could minimize enzymes dosages and affect the quality of the distillers' dried grains with solubles (DDGS). All processing configurations achieved ethanol concentrations between 126 and 132 g/L (16.0-16.7%v/v), although decortication resulted in a decreased ethanol yield. Decortication resulted in a decreased volumetric productivity during warm processing from 1.55 to 1.25 g L(-1)h(-1), whereas the required enzyme dosage for cold processing was decreased from 250 to 221 μl/100 gstarch. Cold processing decreased the average acid detergent fibre (ADF) from 35.59% to 29.32% and neutral detergent fibre (NDF) from 44.04% to 32.28% in the DDGS compared to the conventional (warm) processing. Due to lower enzyme requirements, the use of decorticated grains combined with cold processing presents a favourable process configuration and source of DDGS for non-ruminants. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rising Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures Amplify Extreme Summer Precipitation in Central Europe

PubMed Central

Volosciuk, Claudia; Maraun, Douglas; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Tilinina, Natalia; Gulev, Sergey K.; Latif, Mojib

2016-01-01

The beginning of the 21st century was marked by a number of severe summer floods in Central Europe associated with extreme precipitation (e.g., Elbe 2002, Oder 2010 and Danube 2013). Extratropical storms, known as Vb-cyclones, cause summer extreme precipitation events over Central Europe and can thus lead to such floodings. Vb-cyclones develop over the Mediterranean Sea, which itself strongly warmed during recent decades. Here we investigate the influence of increased Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (SST) on extreme precipitation events in Central Europe. To this end, we carry out atmosphere model simulations forced by average Mediterranean SSTs during 1970–1999 and 2000–2012. Extreme precipitation events occurring on average every 20 summers in the warmer-SST-simulation (2000–2012) amplify along the Vb-cyclone track compared to those in the colder-SST-simulation (1970–1999), on average by 17% in Central Europe. The largest increase is located southeast of maximum precipitation for both simulated heavy events and historical Vb-events. The responsible physical mechanism is increased evaporation from and enhanced atmospheric moisture content over the Mediterranean Sea. The excess in precipitable water is transported from the Mediterranean Sea to Central Europe causing stronger precipitation extremes over that region. Our findings suggest that Mediterranean Sea surface warming amplifies Central European precipitation extremes. PMID:27573802

Decomposition of recalcitrant carbon under experimental warming in boreal forest

PubMed Central

Allison, Steven D.; Treseder, Kathleen K.

2017-01-01

Over the long term, soil carbon (C) storage is partly determined by decomposition rate of carbon that is slow to decompose (i.e., recalcitrant C). According to thermodynamic theory, decomposition rates of recalcitrant C might differ from those of non-recalcitrant C in their sensitivities to global warming. We decomposed leaf litter in a warming experiment in Alaskan boreal forest, and measured mass loss of recalcitrant C (lignin) vs. non-recalcitrant C (cellulose, hemicellulose, and sugars) throughout 16 months. We found that these C fractions responded differently to warming. Specifically, after one year of decomposition, the ratio of recalcitrant C to non-recalcitrant C remaining in litter declined in the warmed plots compared to control. Consistent with this pattern, potential activities of enzymes targeting recalcitrant C increased with warming, relative to those targeting non-recalcitrant C. Even so, mass loss of individual C fractions showed that non-recalcitrant C is preferentially decomposed under control conditions whereas recalcitrant C losses remain unchanged between control and warmed plots. Moreover, overall mass loss was greater under control conditions. Our results imply that direct warming effects, as well as indirect warming effects (e.g. drying), may serve to maintain decomposition rates of recalcitrant C compared to non-recalcitrant C despite negative effects on overall decomposition. PMID:28622366

Sensitivity of greenhouse summer dryness to changes in plant rooting characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.

1997-01-01

A possible consequence of increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere is "summer dryness," a decrease of summer plant-available soil water in middle latitudes, caused by increased availability of energy to drive evapotranspiration. Results from a numerical climate model indicate that summer dryness and related changes of land-surface water balances are highly sensitive to possible concomitant changes of plant-available water-holding capacity of soil, which depends on plant rooting depth and density. The model suggests that a 14% decrease of the soil volume whose water is accessible to plant roots would generate the same summer dryness, by one measure, as an equilibrium doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Conversely, a 14% increase of that soil volume would be sufficient to offset the summer dryness associated with carbon-dioxide doubling. Global and regional changes in rooting depth and density may result from (1) plant and plant-community responses to greenhouse warming, to carbon-dioxide fertilization, and to associated changes in the water balance and (2) anthropogenic deforestation and desertification. Given their apparently critical role, heretofore ignored, in global hydroclimatic change, such changes of rooting characteristics should be carefully evaluated using ecosystem observations, theory, and models.

Millennial-scale Asian summer monsoon variations in South China since the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xisheng; Chu, Guoqiang; Sheng, Mei; Zhang, Shuqin; Li, Jinhua; Chen, Yun; Tang, Ling; Su, Youliang; Pei, Junling; Yang, Zhenyu

2016-10-01

Characterizing spatiotemporal variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is critical for full understanding of its behavior, dynamics, and future impacts. The present knowledge about ASM variations since the last glaciation in South China largely relies on several precisely-dated speleothem stable oxygen isotope (δ18 O) records. Although these speleothem δ18 O signals provide useful evidence for regional past environmental changes, their validity for denoting ASM intensity remains a great controversy. The Huguangyan Maar Lake (HML) provides one of the most complete archives of environmental and climatic changes in the tropical-subtropical South and East Asia since the last glaciation. Here we document a continuous centennial- to millennial-scale ASM record over the past 16 ky BP from the high-sedimentation-rate HML sediments. In contrast with the low-amplitude variations of Chinese speleothem-derived δ18 O signals and the Chinese loess-based monsoon precipitation proxy indexes, our multi-proxy records reveal a pattern of high-amplitude regional climatic fluctuations, including fine-scale oscillations during the Bølling-Allerød warming, the 8.2 ka cooling event, and an abrupt climate shift from 6.5-5.9 ka. The existence of Bond-like cold/dry events indicates a distinct influence of the North Atlantic circulation on low-latitude monsoon changes. The broad comparability between the HML paleo-proxies, Chinese speleothem δ18 O records, and the northern hemisphere summer insolation throughout the Holocene, suggests that solar insolation exerts a profound influence on ASM changes. These findings reinforce a model of combined insolation and glacial forcing of the ASM.

Would limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2°C prevent an ice-free Arctic?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Screen, James; Williamson, Daniel

2017-04-01

The Paris Agreement to combat climate change includes an aspirational goal to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, substantially more ambitious than the previous target of 2°C. One of the most visible and iconic aspects of recent climate change is the dramatic loss of Arctic sea-ice, which is having profound implications on the environment, ecosystems and human inhabitants of this region and beyond. The concept of an 'ice-free Arctic' has captured scientific attention and public imagination. Scientists commonly define this as when the Arctic first becomes ice-free at the end of summer. Without efforts to slow manmade global warming, an ice-free Arctic would likely occur in summer by the middle of this century. But would limiting warming to 1.5°C, or even 2°C, prevent the Arctic ever going ice-free? Different climate models give vastly different projections of the lowest sea-ice extent given global warming of up to 1.5°C or up to 2°C. Models that over-estimate (or under-estimate) sea-ice extent in the last ten years are also those that project more ice (or less ice) remaining into the future. Here we use this relationship to observationally constrain climate model projections of future Arctic sea-ice cover. We obtain an observationally-constrained central prediction of 2.9 million square kilometres for the minimum sea-ice extent if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, or 1.2 million square kilometres if global warming remains below 2°C. Using Bayesian statistics allows us to compare estimates of the probability of an ice-free Arctic for the 1.5°C or 2°C target. We estimate there is less than a 1-in-100000 (exceptionally unlikely in IPCC parlance) chance of an ice-free Arctic if global warming is stays below 1.5°C, and around a 1-in-3 chance (39%; about as likely as not) if global warming is limited to 2.0°C. We suppose then that a summer ice-free Arctic is virtually certain to be avoided if the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement is

Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming

Treesearch

Sarah C. Elmendorf; Gregory H.R. Henry; Robert D. Hollister; Robert G. Bjork; Noemie Boulanger-Lapointe; Elisabeth J. Cooper; Johannes H.C. Cornelissen; Thomas A. Day; Ellen Dorrepaal; Tatiana G. Elumeeva; Mike Gill; William A. Gould; John Harte; David S. Hik; Annika Hofgaard; David R. Johnson; Jill F. Johnstone; Ingijorg Svala Jonsdottir; Janet C. Jorgenson; Kari Klanderud; Julia A. Klein; Saewan Koh; Gaku Kudo; Mark Lara; Esther Levesque; Borgthor Magnusson; Jeremy L. May; Joel A. Mercado; Anders Michelsen; Ulf Molau; Isla H. Myers-Smith; Steven F. Oberbauer; Vladimir G. Onipchenko; Christian Rixen; Niels Martin Schmidt; Gaius R. Shaver; Marko J. Spasojevic; Pora Ellen Porhallsdottir; Anne Tolvanen; Tiffany Troxler; Craig E. Tweedie; Sandra Villareal; Carl-Henrik Wahren; Xanthe Walker; Patrick J. Webber; Jeffrey M. Welker; Sonja Wipf

2012-01-01

Temperature is increasing at unprecedented rates across most of the tundra biome1. Remote-sensing data indicate that contemporary climate warming has already resulted in increased productivity over much of the Arctic2,3, but plot-based evidence for vegetation transformation is not widespread. We analysed change in tundra vegetation surveyed between 1980 and 2010 in 158...

A 400-year ice core melt layer record of summertime warming in the Alaska Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winski, D.; Osterberg, E. C.; Kreutz, K. J.; Wake, C. P.; Ferris, D. G.; Campbell, S. W.; Baum, M.; Raudzens Bailey, A.; Birkel, S. D.; Introne, D.; Handley, M.

2017-12-01

Warming in high-elevation regions has socially relevant impacts on glacier mass balance, water resources, and sensitive alpine ecosystems, yet very few high-elevation temperature records exist from the middle or high latitudes. While many terrestrial paleoclimate records provide critical temperature records from low elevations over recent centuries, melt layers preserved in alpine glaciers present an opportunity to develop calibrated, annually-resolved temperature records from high elevations. We present a 400-year temperature record based on the melt-layer stratigraphy in two ice cores collected from Mt. Hunter in the Central Alaska Range. The ice core record shows a 60-fold increase in melt frequency and water equivalent melt thickness between the pre-industrial period (before 1850) and present day. We calibrate the melt record to summer temperatures based on local and regional weather station analyses, and find that the increase in melt production represents a summer warming of at least 2° C, exceeding rates of temperature increase at most low elevation sites in Alaska. The Mt. Hunter melt layer record is significantly (p<0.05) correlated with surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific through a Rossby-wave like pattern that induces high temperatures over Alaska. Our results show that rapid alpine warming has taken place in the Alaska Range for at least a century, and that conditions in the tropical oceans contribute to this warming.

Change in the relationship between the Australian summer monsoon circulation and boreal summer precipitation over Central China in the late 1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Ruowen; Wang, Jian; Zhang, Tianyu; He, Shengping

2017-09-01

Recent study revealed a close connection between the Australian summer monsoon (ASM) and boreal summer precipitation over Central China (SPCC). This study further revealed a strengthening of the ASM-SPCC relationship around the late 1990s. It is found that the relationship between the ASM and the SPCC during 1979-1997 (1998-2014) relationship is statistically insignificant (significant). Further analysis indicated that during 1998-2014, the weakened ASM is concurrent with significant positive sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea, which could persist into the following boreal summer and further lead to intensified East Asian summer monsoon, strengthened western North Pacific subtropical high, and anomalous ascending motion over Central China. Consequently, more moisture is transported from the western Pacific northward to Central China where significant anomalous convergence appears. Therefore, the ASM could potentially influence the SPCC during 1998-2014. By contrast, the ASM-related SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies in boreal winter are statistically insignificant during 1979-1997. Such an interdecadal change might be attributed to the interdecadal warming that occurred in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea around the late 1990s. This study might be useful for the prediction of the SPCC.

Changing Summer Precipitation Pattern Alters Microbial Community Response to Fall Wet-up in a Mediterranean Soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnard, R. L.; Osborne, C. A.; Firestone, M. K.

2014-12-01

The large soil CO2 efflux associated with rewetting dry soils after the dry summer period significantly contributes to the annual carbon budget of Mediterranean grasslands. Rapid reactivation of soil heterotrophic activity and a pulse of available carbon are both required to fuel the CO2 pulse. Better understanding of the effects of altered summer precipitation on the metabolic state of indigenous microorganisms may be important in predicting future changes in carbon cycling. Here, we investigated the effects of a controlled rewetting event on the soil CO2 efflux pulse and on the present (DNA-based) and potentially active (rRNA-based) soil bacterial and fungal communities in intact soil cores previously subjected to three different precipitation patterns over four months (full summer dry season, extended wet season, and absent dry season). Phylogenetic marker genes for bacteria (16S) and fungi (28S) were sequenced before and after rewetting, and the abundance of these genes and transcripts was measured. Even after having experienced markedly different antecedent water conditions, the potentially active bacterial communities showed a consistent wet-up response. Moreover, we found a significant positive relation between the extent of change in the structure of the potentially active bacterial community and the magnitude of the CO2 pulse upon rewetting dry soils. We suggest that the duration of severe dry conditions (predicted to change under future climate) is important in conditioning the response potential of the soil bacterial community to wet-up as well as in framing the magnitude of the associated CO2 pulse.

The summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) variability on decadal to paleoclimate time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linderholm, H. W.; Folland, C. K.; Zhang, P.; Gunnarson, B. E.; Jeong, J. H.; Ren, H.

2017-12-01

The summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO), strongly related to the latitude of the North Atlantic and European summer storm tracks, exerts a considerable influence on European summer climate variability and extremes. Here we extend the period covered by the SNAO from July and August to June, July and August (JJA). As well as marked interannual variability, the JJA SNAO has shown a large inter-decadal change since the 1970s. Decadally averaged, there has been a change from a very positive to a rather negative SNAO phase. This change in SNAO phase is opposite in sign from that expected by a number of climate models under enhanced greenhouse forcing by the late twenty first century. It has led to noticeably wetter summers in North West Europe in the last decade. On interannual to multidecadal timescales, SNAO variability is linked to variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST): observations and models indicate an association between the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) where the cold (warm) phase of the AMO corresponds a positive (negative) phase of the SNAO. Observations also indicate a link with SST in the Gulf Stream region of the North Atlantic where, particularly on decadal time scales, SST warming may favour a more positive phase of the SNAO. Influences of Arctic climate change on North Atlantic and European atmospheric circulation may also exist, particularly reduced sea ice coverage, perhaps favouring the negative phase of the SNAO. A new tree-ring data based JJA SNAO reconstruction extending over the last millennium, as well as climate model output for the same period, enables us to examine the influence of North Atlantic SST and Arctic sea-ice coverage, as well as SNAO impacts on European summer climate, in a long-term, pre-industrial context.

The Future of the Earth's Climate: Frontiers in Forecasting (LBNL Summer Lecture Series)

ScienceCinema

Collins, Bill [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2017-12-09

Summer Lecture Series 2007: Berkeley Lab's Bill Collins discusses how observations show that the Earth is warming at a rate unprecedented in recent history, and that human-induced changes in atmospheric chemistry are probably the main culprits. He suggests a need for better observations and understanding of the carbon and hydrological cycles.

Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (≥4°C) global warming.

PubMed

Sanderson, M G; Hemming, D L; Betts, R A

2011-01-13

Climate models vary widely in their projections of both global mean temperature rise and regional climate changes, but are there any systematic differences in regional changes associated with different levels of global climate sensitivity? This paper examines model projections of climate change over the twenty-first century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report which used the A2 scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, assessing whether different regional responses can be seen in models categorized as 'high-end' (those projecting 4°C or more by the end of the twenty-first century relative to the preindustrial). It also identifies regions where the largest climate changes are projected under high-end warming. The mean spatial patterns of change, normalized against the global rate of warming, are generally similar in high-end and 'non-high-end' simulations. The exception is the higher latitudes, where land areas warm relatively faster in boreal summer in high-end models, but sea ice areas show varying differences in boreal winter. Many continental interiors warm approximately twice as fast as the global average, with this being particularly accentuated in boreal summer, and the winter-time Arctic Ocean temperatures rise more than three times faster than the global average. Large temperature increases and precipitation decreases are projected in some of the regions that currently experience water resource pressures, including Mediterranean fringe regions, indicating enhanced pressure on water resources in these areas.

Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon: VARIABILITY OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND EXTREME EVENT IN EAST CHINA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Lei; Qian, Yun; Zhang, Yaocun

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of interannual and interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and precipitation-related extreme events in China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1979-2012. A high-quality daily precipitation dataset covering 2287 weather stations in China is analyzed. Based on the precipitation pattern analysis using empirical orthogonal functions, three sub-periods of 1979-1992 (period I), 1993-1999 (period II) and 2000-2012 (period III) are identified to be representative of the precipitation variability. Similar significant variability of the extreme precipitation indices is found across four sub-regions in eastern China. The spatial patterns of summer mean precipitation,more » the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile precipitation (R95p) and the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) anomalies are consistent, but opposite to that of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) anomalies during the three sub-periods. However, the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT) are notably different from that of the other three extreme indices, but highly correlated to the dry events. The changes of precipitation anomaly patterns are accompanied by the change of the EASM regime and the abrupt shift of the position of the west Pacific subtropical high around 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, respectively, which influence the moisture transport that contributes most to the precipitation anomalies. Lastly, the EASM intensity is linked to sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean that influences deep convection over the oceans.« less

Combining wood anatomy and stable isotope variations in a 600-year multi-parameter climate reconstruction from Corsican black pine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szymczak, Sonja; Hetzer, Timo; Bräuning, Achim; Joachimski, Michael M.; Leuschner, Hanns-Hubert; Kuhlemann, Joachim

2014-10-01

We present a new multi-parameter dataset from Corsican black pine growing on the island of Corsica in the Western Mediterranean basin covering the period AD 1410-2008. Wood parameters measured include tree-ring width, latewood width, earlywood width, cell lumen area, cell width, cell wall thickness, modelled wood density, as well as stable carbon and oxygen isotopes. We evaluated the relationships between different parameters and determined the value of the dataset for climate reconstructions. Correlation analyses revealed that carbon isotope ratios are influenced by cell parameters determining cell size, whereas oxygen isotope ratios are influenced by cell parameters determining the amount of transportable water in the xylem. A summer (June to August) precipitation reconstruction dating back to AD 1185 was established based on tree-ring width. No long-term trends or pronounced periods with extreme high/low precipitation are recorded in our reconstruction, indicating relatively stable moisture conditions over the entire time period. By comparing the precipitation reconstruction with a summer temperature reconstruction derived from the carbon isotope chronologies, we identified summers with extreme climate conditions, i.e. warm-dry, warm-wet, cold-dry and cold-wet. Extreme climate conditions during summer months were found to influence cell parameter characteristics. Cold-wet summers promote the production of broad latewood composed of wide and thin-walled tracheids, while warm-wet summers promote the production of latewood with small thick-walled cells. The presented dataset emphasizes the potential of multi-parameter wood analysis from one tree species over long time scales.

Chronic warming stimulates growth of marsh grasses more than mangroves in a coastal wetland ecotone.

PubMed

Coldren, G A; Barreto, C R; Wykoff, D D; Morrissey, E M; Langley, J A; Feller, I C; Chapman, S K

2016-11-01

Increasing temperatures and a reduction in the frequency and severity of freezing events have been linked to species distribution shifts. Across the globe, mangrove ranges are expanding toward higher latitudes, likely due to diminishing frequency of freezing events associated with climate change. Continued warming will alter coastal wetland plant dynamics both above- and belowground, potentially altering plant capacity to keep up with sea level rise. We conducted an in situ warming experiment, in northeast Florida, to determine how increased temperature (+2°C) influences co-occurring mangrove and salt marsh plants. Warming was achieved using passive warming with three treatment levels (ambient, shade control, warmed). Avicennia germinans, the black mangrove, exhibited no differences in growth or height due to experimental warming, but displayed a warming-induced increase in leaf production (48%). Surprisingly, Distichlis spicata, the dominant salt marsh grass, increased in biomass (53% in 2013 and 70% in 2014), density (41%) and height (18%) with warming during summer months. Warming decreased plant root mass at depth and changed abundances of anaerobic bacterial taxa. Even while the poleward shift of mangroves is clearly controlled by the occurrences of severe freezes, chronic warming between these freeze events may slow the progression of mangrove dominance within ecotones. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Global warming induced hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salack, Seyni; Klein, Cornelia; Giannini, Alessandra; Sarr, Benoit; Worou, Omonlola N.; Belko, Nouhoun; Bliefernicht, Jan; Kunstman, Harald

2016-10-01

The small rainfall recovery observed over the Sahel, concomitant with a regional climate warming, conceals some drought features that exacerbate food security. The new rainfall features include false start and early cessation of rainy seasons, increased frequency of intense daily rainfall, increasing number of hot nights and warm days and a decreasing trend in diurnal temperature range. Here, we explain these mixed dry/wet seasonal rainfall features which are called hybrid rainy seasons by delving into observed data consensus on the reduction in rainfall amount, its spatial coverage, timing and erratic distribution of events, and other atmospheric variables crucial in agro-climatic monitoring and seasonal forecasting. Further composite investigations of seasonal droughts, oceans warming and the regional atmospheric circulation nexus reveal that the low-to-mid-level atmospheric winds pattern, often stationary relative to either strong or neutral El-Niño-Southern-Oscillations drought patterns, associates to basin warmings in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea to trigger hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel. More challenging to rain-fed farming systems, our results suggest that these new rainfall conditions will most likely be sustained by global warming, reshaping thereby our understanding of food insecurity in this region.

Effect of temperature on rates of ammonium uptake and nitrification in the western coastal Arctic during winter, spring, and summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baer, Steven E.; Connelly, Tara L.; Sipler, Rachel E.; Yager, Patricia L.; Bronk, Deborah A.

2014-12-01

Biogeochemical rate processes in the Arctic are not currently well constrained, and there is very limited information on how rates may change as the region warms. Here we present data on the sensitivity of ammonium (NH4+) uptake and nitrification rates to short-term warming. Samples were collected from the Chukchi Sea off the coast of Barrow, Alaska, during winter, spring, and summer and incubated for 24 h in the dark with additions of 15NH4+ at -1.5, 6, 13, and 20°C. Rates of NH4+ uptake and nitrification were measured in conjunction with bacterial production. In all seasons, NH4+ uptake rates were highest at temperatures similar to current summertime conditions but dropped off with increased warming, indicative of psychrophilic (i.e., cold-loving) microbial communities. In contrast, nitrification rates were less sensitive to temperature and were higher in winter and spring compared to summer. These findings suggest that as the Arctic coastal ecosystem continues to warm, NH4+ assimilation may become increasingly important, relative to nitrification, although the magnitude of NH4+ assimilation would be still be lower than nitrification.

Interdecadal change of the controlling mechanisms for East Asian early summer rainfall variation around the mid-1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yim, So-Young; Wang, Bin; Kwon, MinHo

2014-03-01

East Asian (EA) summer monsoon shows considerable differences in the mean state and principal modes of interannual variation between early summer (May-June, MJ) and late summer (July-August, JA). The present study focuses on the early summer (MJ) precipitation variability. We find that the interannual variation of the MJ precipitation and the processes controlling the variation have been changed abruptly around the mid-1990s. The rainfall anomaly represented by the leading empirical orthogonal function has changed from a dipole-like pattern in pre-95 epoch (1979-1994) to a tripole-like pattern in post-95 epoch (1995-2010); the prevailing period of the corresponding principal component has also changed from 3-5 to 2-3 years. These changes are concurrent with the changes of the corresponding El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolutions. During the pre-95 epoch, the MJ EA rainfall anomaly is coupled to a slow decay of canonical ENSO events signified by an eastern Pacific warming, which induces a dipole rainfall feature over EA. On the other hand, during the post-95 epoch the anomalous MJ EA rainfall is significantly linked to a rapid decay of a central Pacific warming and a distinct tripolar sea surface temperature (SST) in North Atlantic. The central Pacific warming-induced Philippine Sea anticyclone induces an increased rainfall in southern China and decreased rainfall in central eastern China. The North Atlantic Oscillation-related tripolar North Atlantic SST anomaly induces a wave train that is responsible for the increase northern EA rainfall. Those two impacts form the tripole-like rainfall pattern over EA. Understanding such changes is important for improving seasonal to decadal predictions and long-term climate change in EA.

Trend and Variability of China Precipitation in Spring and Summer: Linkage to Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Fanglin; Lau, K.-M.

2004-01-01

Observational records in the past 50 years show an upward trend of boreal-summer precipitation over central eastern China and a downward trend over northern China. During boreal spring, the trend is upward over southeastern China and downward over central eastern China. This study explores the forcing mechanism of these trends in association with the global sea-surface temperature (SST) variations on the interannual and inter-decadal timescales. Results based on Singular Value Decomposition analyses (SVD) show that the interannual variability of China precipitation in boreal spring and summer can be well defined by two centers of actions for each season, which are co-varying with two interannual modes of SSTs. The first SVD modes of precipitation in spring and summer, which are centered in southeastern China and northern China, respectively, are linked to an ENSO-like mode of SSTs. The second SVD modes of precipitation in both seasons are confined to central eastern China, and are primarily linked to SST variations over the warm pool and Indian Ocean. Features of the anomalous 850-hPa winds and 700-Wa geopotential height corresponding to these modes support a physical mechanism that explains the causal links between the modal variations of precipitation and SSTs. On the decadal and longer timescale, similar causal links are found between the same modes of precipitation and SSTs, except for the case of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For this case, while the interannual mode of precipitation is positively correlated with the interannual variations of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean; the inter-decadal mode is negatively correlated with a different SST mode, the North Pacific mode. The later is responsible for the observed downward trend of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For all other cases, both the interannual and inter-decadal variations of precipitation can be explained by the same mode of SSTs. The upward trend

Future change of Asian-Australian monsoon under RCP 4.5 anthropogenic warming scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bin; Yim, So-Young; Lee, June-Yi; Liu, Jian; Ha, Kyung-Ja

2014-01-01

We investigate the future changes of Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) system projected by 20 climate models that participated in the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A metrics for evaluation of the model's performance on AAM precipitation climatology and variability is used to select a subset of seven best models. The CMIP5 models are more skillful than the CMIP3 models in terms of the AAM metrics. The future projections made by the selected multi-model mean suggest the following changes by the end of the 21st century. (1) The total AAM precipitation (as well as the land and oceanic components) will increase significantly (by 4.5 %/°C) mainly due to the increases in Indian summer monsoon (5.0 %/°C) and East Asian summer monsoon (6.4 %/°C) rainfall; the Australian summer monsoon rainfall will increase moderately by 2.6 %/°C. The "warm land-cool ocean" favors the entire AAM precipitation increase by generation of an east-west asymmetry in the sea level pressure field. On the other hand, the warm Northern Hemisphere-cool Southern Hemisphere induced hemispheric SLP difference favors the ASM but reduces the Australian summer monsoon rainfall. The combined effects explain the differences between the Asian and Australian monsoon changes. (2) The low-level tropical AAM circulation will weaken significantly (by 2.3 %/°C) due to atmospheric stabilization that overrides the effect of increasing moisture convergence. Different from the CMIP3 analysis, the EA subtropical summer monsoon circulation will increase by 4.4 %/°C. (3) The Asian monsoon domain over the land area will expand by about 10 %. (4) The spatial structures of the leading mode of interannual variation of AAM precipitation will not change appreciably but the ENSO-AAM relationship will be significantly enhanced.

Impacts of warming revealed by linking resource growth rates with consumer functional responses.

PubMed

West, Derek C; Post, David M

2016-05-01

Warming global temperatures are driving changes in species distributions, growth and timing, but much uncertainty remains regarding how climate change will alter species interactions. Consumer-Resource interactions in particular can be strongly impacted by changes to the relative performance of interacting species. While consumers generally gain an advantage over their resources with increasing temperatures, nonlinearities can change this relation near temperature extremes. We use an experimental approach to determine how temperature changes between 5 and 30 °C will alter the growth of the algae Scenedesmus obliquus and the functional responses of the small-bodied Daphnia ambigua and the larger Daphnia pulicaria. The impact of warming generally followed expectations, making both Daphnia species more effective grazers, with the increase in feeding rates outpacing the increases in algal growth rate. At the extremes of our temperature range, however, warming resulted in a decrease in Daphnia grazing effectiveness. Between 25 and 30 °C, both species of Daphnia experienced a precipitous drop in feeding rates, while algal growth rates remained high, increasing the likelihood of algal blooms in warming summer temperatures. Daphnia pulicaria performed significantly better at cold temperatures than D. ambigua, but by 20 °C, there was no significant difference between the two species, and at 25 °C, D. ambigua outperformed D. pulicaria. Warming summer temperatures will favour the smaller D. ambigua, but only over a narrow temperature range, and warming beyond 25 °C could open D. ambigua to invasion from tropical species. By fitting our results to temperature-dependent functions, we develop a temperature- and density-dependent model, which produces a metric of grazing effectiveness, quantifying the grazer density necessary to halt algal growth. This approach should prove useful for tracking the transient dynamics of other density-dependent consumer

Preferred response of the East Asian summer monsoon to local and non-local anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan T.; Highwood, Eleanor J.; Wilcox, Laura J.

2016-03-01

In this study, the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art climate model (HadGEM2-ES) that includes earth system components such as interactive chemistry and eight species of tropospheric aerosols considering aerosol direct, indirect, and semi-direct effects, has been used to investigate the impacts of local and non-local emissions of anthropogenic sulphur dioxide on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The study focuses on the fast responses (including land surface feedbacks, but without sea surface temperature feedbacks) to sudden changes in emissions from Asia and Europe. The initial responses, over days 1-40, to Asian and European emissions show large differences. The response to Asian emissions involves a direct impact on the sulphate burden over Asia, with immediate consequences for the shortwave energy budget through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. These changes lead to cooling of East Asia and a weakening of the EASM. In contrast, European emissions have no significant impact on the sulphate burden over Asia, but they induce mid-tropospheric cooling and drying over the European sector. Subsequently, however, this cold and dry anomaly is advected into Asia, where it induces atmospheric and surface feedbacks over Asia and the Western North Pacific (WNP), which also weaken the EASM. In spite of very different perturbations to the local aerosol burden in response to Asian and European sulphur dioxide emissions, the large scale pattern of changes in land-sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation and local precipitation over East Asia from days 40 onward exhibits similar structures, indicating a preferred response, and suggesting that emissions from both regions likely contributed to the observed weakening of the EASM. Cooling and drying of the troposphere over Asia, together with warming and moistening over the WNP, reduces the land-sea thermal contrast between the Asian continent and surrounding oceans. This leads to high sea level

Exploration of warm-up period in conceptual hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kue Bum; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Han, Dawei

2018-01-01

One of the important issues in hydrological modelling is to specify the initial conditions of the catchment since it has a major impact on the response of the model. Although this issue should be a high priority among modelers, it has remained unaddressed by the community. The typical suggested warm-up period for the hydrological models has ranged from one to several years, which may lead to an underuse of data. The model warm-up is an adjustment process for the model to reach an 'optimal' state, where internal stores (e.g., soil moisture) move from the estimated initial condition to an 'optimal' state. This study explores the warm-up period of two conceptual hydrological models, HYMOD and IHACRES, in a southwestern England catchment. A series of hydrologic simulations were performed for different initial soil moisture conditions and different rainfall amounts to evaluate the sensitivity of the warm-up period. Evaluation of the results indicates that both initial wetness and rainfall amount affect the time required for model warm up, although it depends on the structure of the hydrological model. Approximately one and a half months are required for the model to warm up in HYMOD for our study catchment and climatic conditions. In addition, it requires less time to warm up under wetter initial conditions (i.e., saturated initial conditions). On the other hand, approximately six months is required for warm-up in IHACRES, and the wet or dry initial conditions have little effect on the warm-up period. Instead, the initial values that are close to the optimal value result in less warm-up time. These findings have implications for hydrologic model development, specifically in determining soil moisture initial conditions and warm-up periods to make full use of the available data, which is very important for catchments with short hydrological records.

Effect of various warm-up devices on bat velocity of intercollegiate softball players.

PubMed

Szymanski, David J; Bassett, Kylie E; Beiser, Erik J; Till, Megan E; Medlin, Greg L; Beam, Jason R; Derenne, Coop

2012-01-01

Numerous warm-up devices are available for use by softball players while they are in the on-deck circle. It is difficult to know which warm-up device produces the greatest bat velocity (BV) in the batter's box for softball players because on-deck studies with these individuals are sparse. Because the majority of warm-up device research has been conducted with baseball players, the primary purpose of this study was to examine the effect of various warm-up devices on the BV of female intercollegiate softball players and compare the results with those of male baseball players. A secondary purpose was to evaluate 2 new commercially available resistance devices as warm-up aids. Nineteen Division I intercollegiate softball players (age = 19.8 ± 1.2 years, height = 167.0 ± 4.7 cm, body mass = 69.2 ± 8.6 kg, lean body mass = 49.6 ± 3.6 kg, % body fat = 27.9 ± 5.9) participated in a warm-up with 1 of 8 resistance devices on separate days. Each of the 8 testing sessions had players perform a standardized dynamic warm-up, 3 maximal dry swings mimicking their normal game swing with the assigned warm-up device, 2 comfortable dry swings with a standard 83.8-cm, 652-g (33-in., 23-oz) softball bat followed by 3 maximal game swings (20-second rest between swings) while hitting a softball off a batting tee with the same standard softball bat. Results indicated that there were no statistically significant differences in BV after using any of the 8 warm-up devices (510.3-2,721.5 g or 18-96 oz) similar to in previous baseball research. This indicates that the results for both male and female intercollegiate players are similar and that intercollegiate softball players can use any of the 8 warm-up devices in the on-deck circle and have similar BVs. However, similar to in other previous baseball research, it is not recommended that female intercollegiate softball players warm up with the popular commercial donut ring in the on-deck circle because it produced the slowest BV.

A Mid-Summer's Dust Devil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2001-01-01

One objective for the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) in the Extended Mission is to continue looking for changes and dynamic events taking place on the red planet. The feature shown here elicited gasps of excitement among the MOC Operations Staff when it was received in early April 2001.

The feature is a dust devil. Dust devils are spinning, columnar vortices of wind that move across the landscape, pick up dust, and look somewhat like miniature tornadoes. Dust devils are a common occurrence in dry and desert landscapes on Earth as well as Mars. When this dust devil was spied in Amazonis Planitia on April 10th, the MOC was looking straight down. Usually when the camera is looking down the dust devil will appear as a circular, fuzzy patch with a straight shadow indicating its columnar shape. In this case, however, the dust devil is somewhat curved and kinked--its shape is best seen in the shadow it casts to the right. A thin, light-toned track has been left by the dust devil as it moved eastward across the landscape. Usually, such tracks are darker than the surroundings, in this case the light tone might indicate that the dust being removed by the passing dust devil is darker than the surface underneath the thin veneer of dust.

Dust devils most typically form when the ground heats up during the day, warming the air immediately above the surface. As the warmed air nearest the surface begins to rise, it spins. The spinning column begins to move across the surface and picks up loose dust (if any is present). The dust makes the vortex visible and gives it the 'dust devil' or tornado-like appearance. This dust devil occurred at an optimal time for dust devils whether on Earth or Mars--around 2 p.m. local time in the middle of Northern Hemisphere Summer. North is up, sunlight illuminates the scene from the left (west), and 500 meters is about 547 yards. The shadow cast by the dust devil goes off the edge of the image, but the length shown

Non-linear responses of glaciated prairie wetlands to climate warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, W. Carter; Werner, Brett; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

2016-01-01

The response of ecosystems to climate warming is likely to include threshold events when small changes in key environmental drivers produce large changes in an ecosystem. Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are especially sensitive to climate variability, yet the possibility that functional changes may occur more rapidly with warming than expected has not been examined or modeled. The productivity and biodiversity of these wetlands are strongly controlled by the speed and completeness of a vegetation cover cycle driven by the wet and dry extremes of climate. Two thresholds involving duration and depth of standing water must be exceeded every few decades or so to complete the cycle and to produce highly functional wetlands. Model experiments at 19 weather stations employing incremental warming scenarios determined that wetland function across most of the PPR would be diminished beyond a climate warming of about 1.5–2.0 °C, a critical temperature threshold range identified in other climate change studies.

Landscape Change and Microbial Response in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica: Preliminary Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fountain, A. G.; Levy, J.; Gooseff, M. N.; Van Horn, D. J.; Obryk, M.; Pettersson, R.; Telling, J. W.; Glennie, C. L.

2017-12-01

Permafrost in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV), Antarctica is ubiquitous with active layer depths ranging from a few cm at the highest elevations to 1 m near sea level. Although many landscapes in this region have been considered stable over millennia, ad-hoc field observations have documented extreme geomorphic changes in the valley bottoms over the past decade. To assess these changes across the region, we compared a lidar dataset surveyed in the austral summers of 2001-2002 against one surveyed in 2014-2015. Results showed that the vertical resolution of the surveys was < 0.1m. However, a mounting bias of the NASA sensor reduced the resolution of the elevation differences and we ignored differences < ±0.25 m. The surveys revealed large (>1m) landscape changes, including stream channel incision into buried ice deposits (implying the advection of heat by stream water locally degrades thermokarst) and slope failures in thermokarst landforms from block failure and insolation-driven retreat. Smaller changes (<0.5 m) were observed in stream channels where lateral bank erosion intercepted buried ice, or in thermokarst ponds. The magnitude and rate of change is much larger than observed previously in this otherwise stable and slowly changing environment. Biological surveys and experimental manipulations show that wetted soils host microbial communities different from those hosted by adjacent dry soils, and are hotspots of biodiversity highly susceptible to changing physical conditions. In all cases field-checked, the association of sediment and rock debris blanketing buried ice was noted, indicating these are the most vulnerable landscapes to climate warming. Ground penetrating radar mapping of buried ice showed, however, that not all buried ice is associated with landscape change due to the depth of burial, slope, and proximity to stream water. Similarly, modeling of soil temperatures suggests a spatial heterogeneity in warming rates across the valley bottom, as a

Antarctica: Cooling or Warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunde, Armin; Ludescher, Josef; Franzke, Christian

2013-04-01

We consider the 14 longest instrumental monthly mean temperature records from the Antarctica and analyse their correlation properties by wavelet and detrended fluctuation analysis. We show that the stations in the western and the eastern part of the Antarctica show significant long-term memory governed by Hurst exponents close to 0.8 and 0.65, respectively. In contrast, the temperature records at the inner part of the continent (South Pole and Vostok), resemble white noise. We use linear regression to estimate the respective temperature differences in the records per decade (i) for the annual data, (ii) for the summer and (iii) for the winter season. Using a recent approach by Lennartz and Bunde [1] we estimate the respective probabilities that these temperature differences can be exceeded naturally without inferring an external (anthropogenic) trend. We find that the warming in the western part of the continent and the cooling at the South Pole is due to a gradually changes in the cold extremes. For the winter months, both cooling and warming are well outside the 95 percent confidence interval, pointing to an anthropogenic origin. In the eastern Antarctica, the temperature increases and decreases are modest and well within the 95 percent confidence interval. [1] S. Lennartz and A. Bunde, Phys. Rev. E 84, 021129 (2011)

Magnitude and pattern of Arctic warming governed by the seasonality of radiative forcing.

PubMed

Bintanja, R; Krikken, F

2016-12-02

Observed and projected climate warming is strongest in the Arctic regions, peaking in autumn/winter. Attempts to explain this feature have focused primarily on identifying the associated climate feedbacks, particularly the ice-albedo and lapse-rate feedbacks. Here we use a state-of-the-art global climate model in idealized seasonal forcing simulations to show that Arctic warming (especially in winter) and sea ice decline are particularly sensitive to radiative forcing in spring, during which the energy is effectively 'absorbed' by the ocean (through sea ice melt and ocean warming, amplified by the ice-albedo feedback) and consequently released to the lower atmosphere in autumn and winter, mainly along the sea ice periphery. In contrast, winter radiative forcing causes a more uniform response centered over the Arctic Ocean. This finding suggests that intermodel differences in simulated Arctic (winter) warming can to a considerable degree be attributed to model uncertainties in Arctic radiative fluxes, which peak in summer.

Tropical Warm Semi-Arid Regions Expanding Over Temperate Latitudes In The Projected 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajaud, A.; de Noblet, N. I.

2015-12-01

Two billion people today live in drylands, where extreme climatic conditions prevail, and natural resources are limited. Drylands are expected to expand under several scenarios of climatic change. However, relevant adaptation strategies need to account for the aridity level: it conditions the equilibrium tree-cover density, ranging from deserts (hyper-arid) to dense savannas (sub-humid). Here we focus on the evolution of climatically defined warm semi-arid areas, where low-tree density covers can be maintained. We study the global repartition of these regions in the future and the bioclimatic shifts involved. We adopted a bioclimatological approach based on the Köppen climate classification. The warm semi-arid class is characterized by mean annual temperatures over 18°C and a rainfall-limitation criterion. A multi-model ensemble of CMIP5 projections for three representative concentration pathways was selected to analyze future conditions. The classification was first applied to the start, middle and end of the 20th and 21st centuries, in order to localize past and future warm semi-arid regions. Then, time-series for the classification were built to characterize trends and variability in the evolution of those regions. According to the CRU datasets, global expansion of the warm semi-arid area has already started (~+13%), following the global warming trend since the 1900s. This will continue according to all projections, most significantly so outside the tropical belt. Under the "business as usual" scenario, the global warm semi-arid area will increase by 30% and expand 12° poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the multi-model mean. Drying drives the conversion from equatorial sub-humid conditions. Beyond 30° of latitude, cold semi-arid conditions become warm semi-arid through warming, and temperate conditions through combined warming and drying processes. Those various transitions may have drastic but also very distinct ecological and sociological

Using radiative signatures to diagnose the cause of warming during the 2013-2014 Californian drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, Sebastian; Yin, Dongqin; Roderick, Michael L.

2017-10-01

California recently experienced among the worst droughts of the last century, with exceptional precipitation deficits and co-occurring record high temperatures. The dry conditions caused severe water shortages in one of the economically most important agricultural regions of the US. It has recently been hypothesized that anthropogenic warming is increasing the likelihood of such extreme droughts in California, or more specifically, that warmer temperatures from the enhanced greenhouse effect intensify drought conditions. However, separating the cause and effect is difficult because the dry conditions lead to a reduction in evaporative cooling that contributes to the warming. Here we investigate and compare the forcing of long-term greenhouse-induced warming with the short-term warming during the 2013-2014 Californian drought. We use the concept of radiative signatures to investigate the source of the radiative perturbation during the drought, relate the signatures to expected changes due to anthropogenic warming, and assess the cause of warming based on observed changes in the surface energy balance compared to the period 2001-2012. We found that the recent meteorological drought based on precipitation deficits was characterised by an increase in incoming shortwave radiation coupled with a decline in incoming longwave radiation, which contributed to record warm temperatures. In contrast, climate models project that anthropogenic warming is accompanied by little change in incoming shortwave but a large increase in incoming longwave radiation. The warming during the drought was associated with increased incoming shortwave radiation in combination with reduced evaporative cooling from water deficits, which enhanced surface temperatures and sensible heat transfer to the atmosphere. Our analyses demonstrate that radiative signatures are a powerful tool to differentiate the source of perturbations in the surface energy balance at monthly to seasonal time scales.

Exceptional warming in the Western Pacific-Indian Ocean warm pool has contributed to more frequent droughts in eastern Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Peterson, Thomas C.; Stott, Peter A.; Herring, Stephanie

2012-01-01

In 2011, East Africa faced a tragic food crisis that led to famine conditions in parts of Somalia and severe food shortages in parts of Ethiopia and Somalia. While many nonclimatic factors contributed to this crisis (high global food prices, political instability, and chronic poverty, among others) failed rains in both the boreal winter of 2010/11 and the boreal spring of 2011 played a critical role. The back-to-back failures of these rains, which were linked to the dominant La Niña climate and warm SSTs in the central and southeastern Indian Ocean, were particularly problematic since they followed poor rainfall during the spring and summer of 2008 and 2009. In fact, in parts of East Africa, in recent years, there has been a substantial increase in the number of below-normal rainy seasons, which may be related to the warming of the western Pacific and Indian Oceans (for more details, see Funk et al. 2008; Williams and Funk 2011; Williams et al. 2011; Lyon and DeWitt 2012). The basic argument of this work is that recent warming in the Indian–Pacific warm pool (IPWP) enhances the export of geopotential height energy from the warm pool, which tends to produce subsidence across eastern Africa and reduce onshore moisture transports. The general pattern of this disruption has been supported by canonical correlation analyzes and numerical experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model (Funk et al. 2008), diagnostic evaluations of reanalysis data (Williams and Funk 2011; Williams et al. 2011), and SST-driven experiments with ECHAM4.5, ECHAM5, and the Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3.6) (Lyon and DeWitt 2012).

Warming alters energetic structure and function but not resilience of soil food webs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarz, Benjamin; Barnes, Andrew D.; Thakur, Madhav P.; Brose, Ulrich; Ciobanu, Marcel; Reich, Peter B.; Rich, Roy L.; Rosenbaum, Benjamin; Stefanski, Artur; Eisenhauer, Nico

2017-12-01

Climate warming is predicted to alter the structure, stability, and functioning of food webs1-5. Yet, despite the importance of soil food webs for energy and nutrient turnover in terrestrial ecosystems, the effects of warming on these food webs—particularly in combination with other global change drivers—are largely unknown. Here, we present results from two complementary field experiments that test the interactive effects of warming with forest canopy disturbance and drought on energy flux in boreal-temperate ecotonal forest soil food webs. The first experiment applied a simultaneous above- and belowground warming treatment (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C) to closed-canopy and recently clear-cut forest, simulating common forest disturbance6. The second experiment crossed warming with a summer drought treatment (-40% rainfall) in the clear-cut habitats. We show that warming reduces energy flux to microbes, while forest canopy disturbance and drought facilitates warming-induced increases in energy flux to higher trophic levels and exacerbates the reduction in energy flux to microbes, respectively. Contrary to expectations, we find no change in whole-network resilience to perturbations, but significant losses in ecosystem functioning. Warming thus interacts with forest disturbance and drought, shaping the energetic structure of soil food webs and threatening the provisioning of multiple ecosystem functions in boreal-temperate ecotonal forests.

Observations of Urban Heat Island Mitigation in California Coastal Cities due to a Sea Breeze Induced Coastal-Cooling ``REVERSE-REACTION'' to Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bornstein, R. D.; Lebassi, B.; Gonzalez, J.

2010-12-01

The study evaluated long-term (1948-2005) air temperatures at over 300 urban and rural sites in California (CA) during summer (June-August, JJA). The aggregate CA results showed asymmetric warming, as daily min temperatures increased faster than daily max temperatures. The spatial distributions of daily max temperatures in the heavily urbanized South Coast and San Francisco Bay Area air basins, however, exhibited a complex pattern, with cooling at low-elevation (mainly urban) coastal-areas and warming at (mainly rural) inland areas. Previous studies have suggested that cooling summer max temperatures in CA were due to increased irrigation, coastal upwelling, or cloud cover. The current hypothesis, however, is that this temperature pattern arises from a “reverse-reaction” to greenhouse gas (GHG) induced global-warming. In this hypothesis, the global warming of inland areas resulted in an increased (cooling) sea breeze activity in coastal areas. That daytime summer coastal cooling was seen in coastal urban areas implies that urban heat island (UHI) warming was weaker than the reverse-reaction sea breeze cooling; if there was no UHI effect, then the cooling would have been even stronger. Analysis of daytime summer max temperatures at four adjacent pairs of urban and rural sites near the inland cooling-warming boundary, however, showed that the rural sites experienced cooling, while the urban sites showed warming due to UHI development. The rate of heat island growth was estimated as the sum of each urban warming rate and the absolute magnitude of the concurrent adjacent rural cooling rate. Values ranged from 0.12 to 0.55 K decade-1, and were proportional to changes in urban population and urban extent. As Sacramento, Modesto, Stockton, and San José have grown in aerial extent (21 to 59%) and population (40 to 118%), part of the observed increased JJA max values could be due to increased daytime UHI-intensity. Without UHI effects, the currently observed JJA SFBA

Methane Cycling in a Warming Wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noyce, G. L.; Megonigal, P.; Rich, R.; Kirwan, M. L.; Herbert, E. R.

2017-12-01

Coastal wetlands are global hotspots of carbon (C) storage, but the future of these systems is uncertain. In June 2016, we initiated an in-situ, active, whole-ecosystem warming experiment in the Smithsonian's Global Change Research Wetland to quantify how warming and elevated CO2 affect the stability of coastal wetland soil C pools and contemporary rates of C sequestration. Transects are located in two plant communities, dominated by C3 sedges or C4 grasses. The experiment has a gradient design with air and soil warming treatments ranging from ambient to +5.1 °C and heated plots consistently maintain their target temperature year-round. In April 2017, an elevated CO2 treatment was crossed with temperature in the C3community. Ongoing measurements include soil elevation, C fluxes, porewater chemistry and redox potential, and above- and below-ground growth and biomass. In both years, warming increased methane (CH4) emissions (measured at 3-4 week intervals) from spring through fall at the C3 site, but had little effect on emissions from the C4 site. Winter (Dec-Mar) emissions showed no treatment effect. Stable isotope analysis of dissolved CH4 and DIC also indicated that warming had differing effects on CH4 pathways in the two vegetation communities. To better understand temperature effects on rates of CH4 production and oxidation, 1 m soil cores were collected from control areas of the marsh in summer 2017 and incubated at temperatures ranging from 4 °C to 35 °C. Warming increased CH4 production and oxidation rates in surface samples and oxidation rates in the rooting zone samples from both sites, but temperature responses in deep (1 m) soil samples were minimal. In the surface and rooting zone samples, production rates were also consistently higher in C3 soils compared to C4 soils, but, contrary to our expectations, the temperature response was stronger in the C4 soils. However, oxidation in C3 rooting zone samples did have a strong temperature response. The

Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests

PubMed Central

James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P.

2013-01-01

African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions. PMID:23878329

Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.

PubMed

James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

2013-01-01

African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.

Weather and Large-Scale Dust Activity during Martian Northern Spring and Summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kass, David M.; Kleinboehl, Armin; McCleese, Daniel J.; Schofield, John Tim; Smith, Michael D.; Heavens, Nicholas

2016-10-01

Observations from MCS, TES and THEMIS now span the northern spring and summer seasons (Ls 0° to 180°) of 10 consecutive Mars Years (MY 24 through MY 33). These observations show very similar behavior each year. However, there are also noticeable differences and clear signs of inter-annual variability. To best study the three datasets, we examine zonal mean observations of the lower atmosphere (50 Pa, or ~25 km). This region was selected to provide the best quality from all three instruments. We separate the daytime (afternoon) and nighttime (early morning) data in the analysis.The climate at these seasons is dominated by the aphelion cloud belt, and 50 Pa is often close to the peak opacities in the clouds. There is also a strong diurnal thermal tide signature throughout the season at this altitude. The overall behavior is a rapid cooling at the start of the year (as the dust from the dusty season sediments out of the atmosphere) over the the first ~30° of Ls. The coldest temperatures then last until about the solstice and are followed by a slow warming trend through most of the rest of the season. The last ~30° prior to the fall equinox show a more rapid warming trend and significant inter-annual variability. In about half of the years, there is a warming event of the 50 Pa temperatures in the second half of northern summer. The warming is the signature of dust being lofted above the boundary layer, into the lower atmosphere. Due to the relatively clear atmosphere overall, even modest amounts of dust will create noticeable temperature changes. The temperature signature of the dust is more pronounced in the northern hemisphere.

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change

PubMed Central

Roberts, James J.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans. PMID:28683083

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change.

PubMed

Roberts, James J; Fausch, Kurt D; Schmidt, Travis S; Walters, David M

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, James J.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Schmidt, Travis S.; Walters, David M.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.

East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia.

PubMed

Zhang, Huan; Werner, Johannes P; García-Bustamante, Elena; González-Rouco, Fidel; Wagner, Sebastian; Zorita, Eduardo; Fraedrich, Klaus; Jungclaus, Johann H; Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier; Zhu, Xiuhua; Xoplaki, Elena; Chen, Fahu; Duan, Jianping; Ge, Quansheng; Hao, Zhixin; Ivanov, Martin; Schneider, Lea; Talento, Stefanie; Wang, Jianglin; Yang, Bao; Luterbacher, Jürg

2018-05-16

East Asia has experienced strong warming since the 1960s accompanied by an increased frequency of heat waves and shrinking glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau and the Tien Shan. Here, we place the recent warmth in a long-term perspective by presenting a new spatially resolved warm-season (May-September) temperature reconstruction for the period 1-2000 CE using 59 multiproxy records from a wide range of East Asian regions. Our Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) based reconstructions generally agree with earlier shorter regional temperature reconstructions but are more stable due to additional temperature sensitive proxies. We find a rather warm period during the first two centuries CE, followed by a multi-century long cooling period and again a warm interval covering the 900-1200 CE period (Medieval Climate Anomaly, MCA). The interval from 1450 to 1850 CE (Little Ice Age, LIA) was characterized by cooler conditions and the last 150 years are characterized by a continuous warming until recent times. Our results also suggest that the 1990s were likely the warmest decade in at least 1200 years. The comparison between an ensemble of climate model simulations and our summer reconstructions since 850 CE shows good agreement and an important role of internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales.

Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, Paul C.D.; Dunne, Krista A.

2016-01-01

By various measures (drought area and intensity, climatic aridity index, and climatic water deficits), some observational analyses have suggested that much of the Earth’s land has been drying during recent decades, but such drying seems inconsistent with observations of dryland greening and decreasing pan evaporation. ‘Offline’ analyses of climate-model outputs from anthropogenic climate change (ACC) experiments portend continuation of putative drying through the twenty-first century, despite an expected increase in global land precipitation. A ubiquitous increase in estimates of potential evapotranspiration (PET), driven by atmospheric warming, underlies the drying trends, but may be a methodological artefact. Here we show that the PET estimator commonly used (the Penman–Monteith PET for either an open-water surface or a reference crop) severely overpredicts the changes in non-water-stressed evapotranspiration computed in the climate models themselves in ACC experiments. This overprediction is partially due to neglect of stomatal conductance reductions commonly induced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations in climate models. Our findings imply that historical and future tendencies towards continental drying, as characterized by offline-computed runoff, as well as other PET-dependent metrics, may be considerably weaker and less extensive than previously thought.

El Niño suppresses Antarctic warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertler, Nancy A. N.; Barrett, Peter J.; Mayewski, Paul A.; Fogt, Ryan L.; Kreutz, Karl J.; Shulmeister, James

2004-08-01

Here we present new isotope records derived from snow samples from the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica and re-analysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-40) to explain the connection between the warming of the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean [Jacka and Budd, 1998; Jacobs et al., 2002] and the current cooling of the terrestrial Ross Sea region [Doran et al., 2002a]. Our analysis confirms previous findings that the warming is linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) [Kwok and Comiso, 2002a, 2002b; Carleton, 2003; Ribera and Mann, 2003; Turner, 2004], and provides new evidence that the terrestrial cooling is caused by a simultaneous ENSO driven change in atmospheric circulation, sourced in the Amundsen Sea and West Antarctica.

How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

PubMed

Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

2017-03-11

Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.

Effect of global warming on willingness to pay for uninterrupted electricity supply in European nations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Jed; Moeltner, Klaus; Reichl, Johannes; Schmidthaler, Michael

2018-01-01

Predicted changes in temperature and other weather events may damage the electricity grid and cause power outages. Understanding the costs of power outages and how these costs change over time with global warming can inform outage-mitigation-investment decisions. Here we show that across 19 EU nations the value of uninterrupted electricity supply is strongly related to local temperatures, and will increase as the climate warms. Bayesian hierarchical modelling of data from a choice experiment and respondent-specific temperature measures reveals estimates of willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid an hour of power outage between €0.32 and €1.86 per household. WTP varies on the basis of season and is heterogeneous between European nations. Winter outages currently cause larger per household welfare losses than summer outages per hour of outage. However, this dynamic will begin to shift under plausible future climates, with summer outages becoming substantially more costly and winter outages becoming slightly less costly on a per-household, per-hour basis.

Potential Impacts of Future Warming and Land Use Changes on Intra-Urban Heat Exposure in Houston, Texas

PubMed Central

Conlon, Kathryn; Monaghan, Andrew; Hayden, Mary; Wilhelmi, Olga

2016-01-01

Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (Tmin) and daily maximum heat index (HImax) during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010) and near-future (2040) parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM) simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (Tmin) and 7.3°C (HImax) in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040) yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (Tmin) and 2.5°C (HImax), respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (Tmin) and 8.3°C (HImax), with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat. PMID:26863298

Are Sierran Lakes Warming as a Result of Climate Change? The Effects of Climate Warming and Variation in Precipitation on Water Temperature in a Snowmelt-Dominated Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadro, S.; Melack, J. M.; Sickman, J. O.; Skeen, K.

2016-12-01

Water temperature regulates a broad range of fundamental ecosystem processes in lakes. While climate can be an important factor regulating lake temperatures, heterogeneity in the warming response of lakes is large, and variation in precipitation is rarely considered. We analyzed three decades of climate and water temperature data from a high-elevation catchment in the southern Sierra Nevada of California to illustrate the magnitude of warming taking place during different seasons and the role of precipitation in regulating lake temperatures. Significant climate warming trends were evident during all seasons except spring. Nighttime rates of climate warming were approximately 25% higher than daytime rates. Spatial patterns in warming were elevation dependent, with rates of temperature increase higher at sites above 2800 m.a.s.l. than below. Although interannual variation in snow deposition was high, the frequency and severity of recent droughts has contributed to a significant 3.4 mm year -1 decline in snow water equivalent over the last century. Snow accumulation, more than any other climate factor, regulated lake temperature; 94% of variation in summer lake temperature was regulated by precipitation as snow. For every 100 mm decrease in snow water equivalent there was a 0.62 ° increase in lake temperature. Drought years amplify warming in lakes by reducing the role of cold spring meltwaters in lake energy budgets and prolonging the ice-free period during which lakes warm. The combination of declining winter snowpack and warming air temperatures has the capacity to amplify the effect of climate warming on lake temperatures during drought years. Interactions among climatic factors need to be considered when evaluating ecosystem level effects, especially in mountain regions. For mountain lakes already affected by drought, continued climate warming during spring and autumn has the greatest potential to impact mean lake temperatures.

Climate Change: The Role of Particles and Gases (LBNL Summer Lecture Series)

ScienceCinema

Menon, Surabi

2017-12-15

Summer Lecture Series 2008: A member of the Atmospheric Sciences Department in the Environmental Energy Technologies Division (EETD), Surabi Menon's work focuses on the human contribution to increasing impacts of climate change. Her talk will focus on what humans can do about the effects of global warming by examining anthropogenic influences on climate and future anticipated impacts, using a climate model and her own observations.

Decadal Variation of the Relationship between Western Pacific Subtropical High and Summer Heatwaves in East China Modulated by Pacific Decadal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Q.; Fu, C.; Zhou, T.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the relationship between Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and summer heatwaves over Eastern China in interannual scale during the period of 1959-2016. Based on surface daily maximum temperature of 654 monitoring stations over China and meteorological variables in reanalysis data, we calculate the number of heatwave days (NHD) (one heatwave day was defined as one day with its daily maximum temperature greater than 35 degrees centigrade) as well as WPSH index and then examine their interannual relationship. Although the high-NHD-related 850hPa horizontal wind structure was shared by that of high WPSH and decaying El Niño summer, a decadal oscillation emerges for the correlation between interannual WPSH and NHD after removing their interdecadal variability by Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method. The correlation coefficient can reach up to as high as 0.69 and as low as 0.17 and assembles the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) pretty well. Compositing analysis demonstrates that unstable WPSH-NHD relationship is mainly attributed to the spatial structure distinction of WPSH and surface warming in the El Niño decaying summer of different PDO phases. In the El Niño decaying summer of positive PDO phases, remarkable enhanced warming over majority of Southeastern China matches well with the noticeable westward extension of WPSH, which seems to be forced by the cyclonic circulation anomaly over Japan. The warmer Pacific-Indian Ocean Warm Pool intensifies the Matsuno-Gill pattern over Maritime Continent, stimulating this cyclonic circulation anomaly via the northward propagation of Rossby wave. In the El Niño decaying summer of negative PDO phases, the cooler East China Sea enhances WPSH in North China and South China Sea, and thereby leads to a local cyclonic circulation anomaly over Eastern China, which would cause a large scope of cooling and out-of-phase WPSH-NHD relationship.

The 2014/15 Warm Anomaly in the Southern California Current - Physical and Biological Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ralf, G.

2016-02-01

The 2014/15 Warm Anomaly (WarmA) off Southern California manifested itself in the summer of 2014 as an anomalously warm surface layer in the Southern Calif. Bight with low concentrations of Chl a. This layer intensified in spatial extent, covering the entire CalCOFI surface area by the winter of 2015 with temperature anomalies 3 StDev larger than long-term averages. Concentrations of nutrients, phytoplankton biomass and rates of primary production were extremely low during the WarmA. The evolution of the WarmA as well as the 2015/16 El Niño with time will be compared to the evolution of the weak and strong El Niño's observed over the last 60 years. These events provide unique insights in the controls of phytoplankton biomass and production in the southern California Current System. Preliminary analyses suggest that the response of the phytoplankton community to the WarmA was consistent with responses to similar forcing during the prior decade. This presentation is based on data collected during the quarterly CalCOFI cruises by the CalCOFI and the CCE-LTER groups.

Vulnerability of stream community composition and function to projected thermal warming and hydrologic change across ecoregions in the western United States.

PubMed

Pyne, Matthew I; Poff, N LeRoy

2017-01-01

Shifts in biodiversity and ecological processes in stream ecosystems in response to rapid climate change will depend on how numerically and functionally dominant aquatic insect species respond to changes in stream temperature and hydrology. Across 253 minimally perturbed streams in eight ecoregions in the western USA, we modeled the distribution of 88 individual insect taxa in relation to existing combinations of maximum summer temperature, mean annual streamflow, and their interaction. We used a heat map approach along with downscaled general circulation model (GCM) projections of warming and streamflow change to estimate site-specific extirpation likelihood for each taxon, allowing estimation of whole-community change in streams across these ecoregions. Conservative climate change projections indicate a 30-40% loss of taxa in warmer, drier ecoregions and 10-20% loss in cooler, wetter ecoregions where taxa are relatively buffered from projected warming and hydrologic change. Differential vulnerability of taxa with key functional foraging roles in processing basal resources suggests that climate change has the potential to modify stream trophic structure and function (e.g., alter rates of detrital decomposition and algal consumption), particularly in warmer and drier ecoregions. We show that streamflow change is equally as important as warming in projected risk to stream community composition and that the relative threat posed by these two fundamental drivers varies across ecoregions according to projected gradients of temperature and hydrologic change. Results also suggest that direct human modification of streams through actions such as water abstraction is likely to further exacerbate loss of taxa and ecosystem alteration, especially in drying climates. Management actions to mitigate climate change impacts on stream ecosystems or to proactively adapt to them will require regional calibration, due to geographic variation in insect sensitivity and in exposure to

Role of summer prescribed fire to manage shrub-invaded grasslands

Treesearch

Charles A. Taylor

2007-01-01

Prior to development of the livestock industry, both anthropogenic and natural disturbances (such as prescribed and wild fire) played key roles in shaping the different plant communities across Texas. Historically, fires occurred during all seasons of the year, but summer fires were probably more frequent due to dry conditions combined with increased lightning...

Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time.

PubMed

Elmendorf, Sarah C; Henry, Gregory H R; Hollister, Robert D; Björk, Robert G; Bjorkman, Anne D; Callaghan, Terry V; Collier, Laura Siegwart; Cooper, Elisabeth J; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Day, Thomas A; Fosaa, Anna Maria; Gould, William A; Grétarsdóttir, Járngerður; Harte, John; Hermanutz, Luise; Hik, David S; Hofgaard, Annika; Jarrad, Frith; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Keuper, Frida; Klanderud, Kari; Klein, Julia A; Koh, Saewan; Kudo, Gaku; Lang, Simone I; Loewen, Val; May, Jeremy L; Mercado, Joel; Michelsen, Anders; Molau, Ulf; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Oberbauer, Steven F; Pieper, Sara; Post, Eric; Rixen, Christian; Robinson, Clare H; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Shaver, Gaius R; Stenström, Anna; Tolvanen, Anne; Totland, Orjan; Troxler, Tiffany; Wahren, Carl-Henrik; Webber, Patrick J; Welker, Jeffery M; Wookey, Philip A

2012-02-01

Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation - and associated ecosystem consequences - have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Pattern and process of prescribed fires influence effectiveness at reducing wildfire severity in dry coniferous forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arkle, Robert S.; Pilliod, David S.; Welty, Justin L.

2012-01-01

We examined the effects of three early season (spring) prescribed fires on burn severity patterns of summer wildfires that occurred 1–3 years post-treatment in a mixed conifer forest in central Idaho. Wildfire and prescribed fire burn severities were estimated as the difference in normalized burn ratio (dNBR) using Landsat imagery. We used GIS derived vegetation, topography, and treatment variables to generate models predicting the wildfire burn severity of 1286–5500 30-m pixels within and around treated areas. We found that wildfire severity was significantly lower in treated areas than in untreated areas and significantly lower than the potential wildfire severity of the treated areas had treatments not been implemented. At the pixel level, wildfire severity was best predicted by an interaction between prescribed fire severity, topographic moisture, heat load, and pre-fire vegetation volume. Prescribed fire severity and vegetation volume were the most influential predictors. Prescribed fire severity, and its influence on wildfire severity, was highest in relatively warm and dry locations, which were able to burn under spring conditions. In contrast, wildfire severity peaked in cooler, more mesic locations that dried later in the summer and supported greater vegetation volume. We found considerable evidence that prescribed fires have landscape-level influences within treatment boundaries; most notable was an interaction between distance from the prescribed fire perimeter and distance from treated patch edges, which explained up to 66% of the variation in wildfire severity. Early season prescribed fires may not directly target the locations most at risk of high severity wildfire, but proximity of these areas to treated patches and the discontinuity of fuels following treatment may influence wildfire severity and explain how even low severity treatments can be effective management tools in fire-prone landscapes.

Drier summers cancel out the CO2 uptake enhancement induced by warmer springs.

PubMed

Angert, A; Biraud, S; Bonfils, C; Henning, C C; Buermann, W; Pinzon, J; Tucker, C J; Fung, I

2005-08-02

An increase in photosynthetic activity of the northern hemisphere terrestrial vegetation, as derived from satellite observations, has been reported in previous studies. The amplitude of the seasonal cycle of the annually detrended atmospheric CO(2) in the northern hemisphere (an indicator of biospheric activity) also increased during that period. We found, by analyzing the annually detrended CO(2) record by season, that early summer (June) CO(2) concentrations indeed decreased from 1985 to 1991, and they have continued to decrease from 1994 up to 2002. This decrease indicates accelerating springtime net CO(2) uptake. However, the CO(2) minimum concentration in late summer (an indicator of net growing-season uptake) showed no positive trend since 1994, indicating that lower net CO(2) uptake during summer cancelled out the enhanced uptake during spring. Using a recent satellite normalized difference vegetation index data set and climate data, we show that this lower summer uptake is probably the result of hotter and drier summers in both mid and high latitudes, demonstrating that a warming climate does not necessarily lead to higher CO(2) growing-season uptake, even in high-latitude ecosystems that are considered to be temperature limited.

Warming alters the energetic structure and function but not resilience of soil food webs

PubMed Central

Schwarz, Benjamin; Barnes, Andrew D.; Thakur, Madhav P.; Brose, Ulrich; Ciobanu, Marcel; Reich, Peter B.; Rich, Roy L.; Rosenbaum, Benjamin; Stefanski, Artur; Eisenhauer, Nico

2017-01-01

Climate warming is predicted to alter the structure, stability, and functioning of food webs1–5. Yet, despite the importance of soil food webs for energy and nutrient turnover in terrestrial ecosystems, warming effects on these food webs—particularly in combination with other global change drivers—are largely unknown. Here, we present results from two complementary field experiments testing the interactive effects of warming with forest canopy disturbance and drought on energy fluxes in boreal-temperate ecotonal forest soil food webs. The first experiment applied a simultaneous above- and belowground warming treatment (ambient, +1.7°C, +3.4°C) to closed canopy and recently clear-cut forest, simulating common forest disturbance6. The second experiment crossed warming with a summer drought treatment (-40% rainfall) in the clear-cut habitats. We show that warming reduces energy fluxes to microbes, while forest canopy disturbance and drought facilitates warming-induced increases in energy flux to higher trophic levels and exacerbates reductions in energy flux to microbes, respectively. Contrary to expectations, we find no change in whole-network resilience to perturbations, but significant losses of ecosystem functioning. Warming thus interacts with forest disturbance and drought, shaping the energetic structure of soil food webs and threatening the provisioning of multiple ecosystem functions in boreal-temperate ecotonal forests. PMID:29218059

The Climate Effects of Deforestation the Amazon Rainforest under Global Warming Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D.; Avissar, R.

2006-12-01

Replacement of tropical rainforests has been observed to have a strong drying effect in Amazon simulations, with effects reaching high into the atmospheric column and into the midlatitudes. The drying effects of deforestation, however, can be moderated by the effects of global warming, which should accelerate the hydrologic cycle of the Amazon. The effects of a prescribed, time-varying Amazon deforestation done in conjunction with a steady, moderate increase in CO2 concentrations are determined using a climate model. The model agrees with previous studies when each forcing is applied individually - compared to a control run, Amazon deforestation decreases the local precipitation and global warming increases it. When both are applied, however, the precipitation and other hydrologic variables decrease, but to a lesser extent than when deforestation alone was applied. In effect, the two effects act opposite to one another and bring the simulated climate closer to that of the control.

Onset of deglacial warming in West Antarctica driven by local orbital forcing.

PubMed

2013-08-22

The cause of warming in the Southern Hemisphere during the most recent deglaciation remains a matter of debate. Hypotheses for a Northern Hemisphere trigger, through oceanic redistributions of heat, are based in part on the abrupt onset of warming seen in East Antarctic ice cores and dated to 18,000 years ago, which is several thousand years after high-latitude Northern Hemisphere summer insolation intensity began increasing from its minimum, approximately 24,000 years ago. An alternative explanation is that local solar insolation changes cause the Southern Hemisphere to warm independently. Here we present results from a new, annually resolved ice-core record from West Antarctica that reconciles these two views. The records show that 18,000 years ago snow accumulation in West Antarctica began increasing, coincident with increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, warming in East Antarctica and cooling in the Northern Hemisphere associated with an abrupt decrease in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. However, significant warming in West Antarctica began at least 2,000 years earlier. Circum-Antarctic sea-ice decline, driven by increasing local insolation, is the likely cause of this warming. The marine-influenced West Antarctic records suggest a more active role for the Southern Ocean in the onset of deglaciation than is inferred from ice cores in the East Antarctic interior, which are largely isolated from sea-ice changes.

Onset of deglacial warming in West Antarctica driven by local orbital forcing

USGS Publications Warehouse

WAIS Divide Project Members,; Fudge, T. J.; Steig, Eric J.; Markle, Bradley R.; Schoenemann, Spruce W.; Ding, Qinghua; Taylor, Kendrick C.; McConnell, Joseph R.; Brook, Edward J.; Sowers, Todd; White, James W. C.; Alley, Richard B.; Cheng, Hai; Clow, Gary D.; Cole-Dai, Jihong; Conway, Howard; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Edwards, Jon S.; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Edwards, Ross; Fegyveresi, John M.; Ferris, David; Fitzpatrick, Joan J.; Johnson, Jay; Hargreaves, Geoffrey; Lee, James E.; Maselli, Olivia J.; Mason, William; McGwire, Kenneth C.; Mitchell, Logan E.; Mortensen, Nicolai B.; Neff, Peter; Orsi, Anais J.; Popp, Trevor J.; Schauer, Andrew J.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.; Sigl, Michael; Spencer, Matthew K.; Vaughn, Bruce H.; Voigt, Donald E.; Waddington, Edwin D.; Wang, Xianfeng; Wong, Gifford J.

2013-01-01

The cause of warming in the Southern Hemisphere during the most recent deglaciation remains a matter of debate. Hypotheses for a Northern Hemisphere trigger, through oceanic redistributions of heat, are based in part on the abrupt onset of warming seen in East Antarctic ice cores and dated to 18,000 years ago, which is several thousand years after high-latitude Northern Hemisphere summer insolation intensity began increasing from its minimum, approximately 24,000 years ago. An alternative explanation is that local solar insolation changes cause the Southern Hemisphere to warm independently. Here we present results from a new, annually resolved ice-core record from West Antarctica that reconciles these two views. The records show that 18,000 years ago snow accumulation in West Antarctica began increasing, coincident with increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, warming in East Antarctica and cooling in the Northern Hemisphere associated with an abrupt decrease in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. However, significant warming in West Antarctica began at least 2,000 years earlier. Circum-Antarctic sea-ice decline, driven by increasing local insolation, is the likely cause of this warming. The marine-influenced West Antarctic records suggest a more active role for the Southern Ocean in the onset of deglaciation than is inferred from ice cores in the East Antarctic interior, which are largely isolated from sea-ice changes.

Can Regional Climate Models Improve Warm Season Forecasts in the North American Monsoon Region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, F.; Castro, C. L.

2009-12-01

The goal of this work is to improve warm season forecasts in the North American Monsoon Region. To do this, we are dynamically downscaling warm season CFS (Climate Forecast System) reforecasts from 1982-2005 for the contiguous U.S. using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model. CFS is the global coupled ocean-atmosphere model used by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a branch of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), to provide official U.S. seasonal climate forecasts. Recently, NCEP has produced a comprehensive long-term retrospective ensemble CFS reforecasts for the years 1980-2005. These reforecasts show that CFS model 1) has an ability to forecast tropical Pacific SSTs and large-scale teleconnection patterns, at least as evaluated for the winter season; 2) has greater skill in forecasting winter than summer climate; and 3) demonstrates an increase in skill when a greater number of ensembles members are used. The decrease in CFS skill during the warm season is due to the fact that the physical mechanisms of rainfall at this time are more related to mesoscale processes, such as the diurnal cycle of convection, low-level moisture transport, propagation and organization of convection, and surface moisture recycling. In general, these are poorly represented in global atmospheric models. Preliminary simulations for years with extreme summer climate conditions in the western and central U.S. (specifically 1988 and 1993) show that CFS-WRF simulations can provide a more realistic representation of convective rainfall processes. Thus a RCM can potentially add significant value in climate forecasting of the warm season provided the downscaling methodology incorporates the following: 1) spectral nudging to preserve the variability in the large scale circulation while still permitting the development of smaller-scale variability in the RCM; and 2) use of realistic soil moisture initial condition, in this case provided by the

Summer snowmelt patterns in the South Shetlands using TerraSAR-X imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mora, C.; Jimenez, J. J.; Catalao Fernades, J.; Ferreira, A.; David, A.; Ramos, M.; Vieira, G.

2014-12-01

Snow plays an important role in controlling ground thermal regime and thus influencing permafrost distribution in the lower areas of the South Shetlands archipelago, where late lying snowpatches protect the soil from summer warming. However, summer snow distribution is complex in the mountainous environments of the Maritime Antarctica and it is very difficult to obtain accurate mapping products of snow cover extent and also to monitor snowmelt. Field observations of snow cover in the region are currently based on: i) thickness data from a very scarce network of meteorological stations, ii) temperature poles allowing to estimate snow thickness, iii) and time-lapse cameras allowing for assessing snow distribution over relatively small areas. The high cloudiness of the Maritime Antarctic environment limits good mapping results from the analysis of optical remote sensing imagery such as Landsat, QuickBird or GeoEye. Therefore, microwave sensors provide the best imagery, since they are not influenced by cloudiness and are sensitive to wet-snow, typical of the melting season. We have acquired TerraSAR-X scenes for Deception and Livingston Islands for January-March 2014 in spotlight (HH, VV and HH/VV) and stripmap modes (HH) and analyse the radar backscattering for determining the differences between wet-snow, dry-snow and bare soil aiming at developing snow melt pattern maps. For ground truthing, snowpits were dug in order to characterize snow stratigraphy, grain size, grain type and snow density and to evaluate its effects on radar backscattering. Time-lapse cameras allow to identify snow patch boundaries in the field and ground surface temperatures obtained with minloggers, together with air temperatures, allow to identify the presence of snow cover in the ground. The current research is conducted in the framework of the project PERMANTAR-3 (Permafrost monitoring and modelling in Antarctic Peninsula - PTDC/AAG-GLO/3908/2012 of the FCT and PROPOLAR).

The recent warming of permafrost in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osterkamp, T. E.

2005-12-01

This paper reports results of an experiment initiated in 1977 to determine the effects of climate on permafrost in Alaska. Permafrost observatories with boreholes were established along a north-south transect of Alaska in undisturbed permafrost terrain. The analysis and interpretation of annual temperature measurements in the boreholes and daily temperature measurements of the air, ground and permafrost surfaces made with automated temperature loggers are reported. Permafrost temperatures warmed along this transect coincident with a statewide warming of air temperatures that began in 1977. At two sites on the Arctic Coastal Plain, the warming was seasonal, greatest during "winter" months (October through May) and least during "summer" months (June through September). Permafrost temperatures peaked in the early 1980s and then decreased in response to slightly cooler air temperatures and thinner snow covers. Arctic sites began warming again typically about 1986 and Interior Alaska sites about 1988. Gulkana, the southernmost site, has been warming slowly since it was drilled in 1983. Air temperatures were relatively warm and snow covers were thicker-than-normal from the late 1980s into the late 1990s allowing permafrost temperatures to continue to warm. Temperatures at some sites leveled off or cooled slightly at the turn of the century. Two sites (Yukon River Bridge and Livengood) cooled during the period of observations. The magnitude of the total warming at the surface of the permafrost (through 2003) was 3 to 4 °C for the Arctic Coastal Plain, 1 to 2 °C for the Brooks Range including its northern and southern foothills, and 0.3 to 1 °C south of the Yukon River. While the data are sparse, permafrost is warming throughout the region north of the Brooks Range, southward along the transect from the Brooks Range to the Chugach Mountains (except for Yukon River and Livengood), in Interior Alaska throughout the Tanana River region, and in the region south of the

Multi-model projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes under A1B scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, X.; Wang, S.; Tang, J.

2016-12-01

As part of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia, the projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes are constructed using three global climate models (GCMs) and seven regional climate models (RCMs) during 2041-2060 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B emission scenario. For the control climate of 1981-2000, most nested RCMs show advantage over the driving GCM of European Centre/Hamburg Fifth Generation (ECHAM5) in the temporal-spatial distributions of temperature and precipitation over Indian Peninsula. Following the driving GCM of ECHAM5, most nested RCMs produce advanced monsoon onset in the control climate. For future climate widespread summer warming is projected over Indian Peninsula by all climate models, with the Multi-RCMs ensemble mean (MME) temperature increasing of 1°C to 2.5°C and the maximum warming center located in northern Indian Peninsula. While for the precipitation, a large inter-model spread is projected by RCMs, with wetter condition in MME projections and significant increase over southern India. Driven by the same GCM, most RCMs project advanced monsoon onset while delayed onset is found in two Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) projections, indicating uncertainty can be expected in the Indian Summer Monsoon onset. All climate models except Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model with equal resolution (referred as CCAMP) and two RegCM3 models project stronger summer monsoon during 2041-2060. The disagreement in precipitation projections by RCMs indicates that the surface climate change on regional scale is not only dominated by the large-scale forcing which is provided by driving GCM but also sensitive to RCM' internal physics.

Long time management of fossil fuel resources to limit global warming and avoid ice age onsets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaffer, Gary

2009-02-01

There are about 5000 billion tons of fossil fuel carbon in accessible reserves. Combustion of all this carbon within the next few centuries would force high atmospheric CO2 content and extreme global warming. On the other hand, low atmospheric CO2 content favors the onset of an ice age when changes in the Earth's orbit lead to low summer insolation at high northern latitudes. Here I present Earth System Model projections showing that typical reduction targets for fossil fuel use in the present century could limit ongoing global warming to less than one degree Celcius above present. Furthermore, the projections show that combustion pulses of remaining fossil fuel reserves could then be tailored to raise atmospheric CO2 content high and long enough to parry forcing of ice age onsets by summer insolation minima far into the future. Our present interglacial period could be extended by about 500,000 years in this way.

Passive warming effect on soil microbial community and humic substance degradation in maritime Antarctic region.

PubMed

Kim, Dockyu; Park, Ha Ju; Kim, Jung Ho; Youn, Ui Joung; Yang, Yung Hun; Casanova-Katny, Angélica; Vargas, Cristina Muñoz; Venegas, Erick Zagal; Park, Hyun; Hong, Soon Gyu

2018-06-01

Although the maritime Antarctic has undergone rapid warming, the effects on indigenous soil-inhabiting microorganisms are not well known. Passive warming experiments using open-top chamber (OTC) have been performed on the Fildes Peninsula in the maritime Antarctic since 2008. When the soil temperature was measured at a depth of 2-5 cm during the 2013-2015 summer seasons, the mean temperature inside OTC (OTC-In) increased by approximately 0.8 °C compared with outside OTC (OTC-Out), while soil chemical and physical characteristics did not change. Soils (2015 summer) from OTC-In and OTC-Out were subjected to analysis for change in microbial community and degradation rate of humic substances (HS, the largest pool of recalcitrant organic carbon in soil). Archaeal and bacterial communities in OTC-In were minimally affected by warming compared with those in OTC-Out, with archaeal methanogenic Thermoplasmata slightly increased in abundance. The abundance of heterotrophic fungi Ascomycota was significantly altered in OTC-In. Total bacterial and fungal biomass in OTC-In increased by 20% compared to OTC-Out, indicating that this may be due to increased microbial degradation activity for soil organic matter (SOM) including HS, which would result in the release of more low-molecular-weight growth substrates from SOM. Despite the effects of warming on the microbial community over the 8-years-experiments warming did not induce any detectable change in content or structure of polymeric HS. These results suggest that increased temperature may have significant and direct effects on soil microbial communities inhabiting maritime Antarctic and that soil microbes would subsequently provide more available carbon sources for other indigenous microbes. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A 400-Year Ice Core Melt Layer Record of Summertime Warming in the Alaska Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winski, Dominic; Osterberg, Erich; Kreutz, Karl; Wake, Cameron; Ferris, David; Campbell, Seth; Baum, Mark; Bailey, Adriana; Birkel, Sean; Introne, Douglas; Handley, Mike

2018-04-01

Warming in high-elevation regions has societally important impacts on glacier mass balance, water resources, and sensitive alpine ecosystems, yet very few high-elevation temperature records exist from the middle or high latitudes. While a variety of paleoproxy records provide critical temperature records from low elevations over recent centuries, melt layers preserved in alpine glaciers present an opportunity to develop calibrated, annually resolved temperature records from high elevations. Here we present a 400-year temperature proxy record based on the melt layer stratigraphy of two ice cores collected from Mt. Hunter in Denali National Park in the central Alaska Range. The ice core record shows a sixtyfold increase in water equivalent total annual melt between the preindustrial period (before 1850 Common Era) and present day. We calibrate the melt record to summer temperatures based on weather station data from the ice core drill site and find that the increase in melt production represents a summer warming rate of at least 1.92 ± 0.31°C per century during the last 100 years, exceeding rates of temperature increase at most low-elevation sites in Alaska. The Mt. Hunter melt layer record is significantly (p < 0.05) correlated with surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific through a Rossby wave-like pattern that enhances high temperatures over Alaska. Our results show that rapid alpine warming has taken place in the Alaska Range for at least a century and that conditions in the tropical oceans contribute to this warming.

Future drying of the southern Amazon and central Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; Zeng, N.; Cook, B.

2008-12-01

Recent climate modeling suggests that the Amazon rainforest could exhibit considerable dieback under future climate change, a prediction that has raised considerable interest as well as controversy. To determine the likelihood and causes of such changes, we analyzed the output of 15 models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR4) and a dynamic vegetation model VEGAS driven by these climate output. Our results suggest that the core of the Amazon rainforest should remain largely stable. However, the periphery, notably the southern edge, is in danger of drying out, driven by two main processes. First, a decline in precipitation of 24% in the southern Amazon lengthens the dry season and reduces soil moisture, despite of an increase in precipitation during the wet season, due to the nonlinear response in hydrology and ecosystem dynamics. Two dynamical mechanisms may explain the lower dry season precipitation: (1) a stronger north-south tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient; (2) a general subtropical drying under global warming when the dry season southern Amazon is under the control of the subtropical high pressure. Secondly, evaporation will increase due to the general warming, thus also reducing soil moisture. As a consequence, the median of the models projects a reduction of vegetation by 20%, and enhanced fire carbon flux by 10-15% in the southern Amazon, central Brazil, and parts of the Andean Mountains. Because the southern Amazon is also under intense human influence, the double pressure of deforestation and climate change may subject the region to dramatic changes in the 21st century.

Climate and environmental changes during the past millennium in central western Guizhou, China as recorded by Stalagmite ZJD-21

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Tz-Shing; Liu, Zi-Qi; Li, Hong-Chun; Wan, Nai-Jung; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Ku, Teh-Lung

2011-04-01

Stalagmite ZJD-21 (12.3-cm long) was collected from Zhijin Cave in Zhijin County, Guizhou, China. Its 210Pb profile and seven 230Th/ 234U dates indicate that the stalagmite has grown continuously for the past 1100 years. The δ18O record of ZJD-21 indicates that δ18O in the stalagmite was mainly influenced by rainfall amount and/or summer/winter rain ratio, with lighter values corresponding to wetter climatic conditions and/or more summer monsoonal rains. The ZJD-21 δ18O record suggests: (1) dry/warm climates during AD 950-1100 (overlapping with most of the Medieval Warm Period, MWP, in Europe); (2) strengthening of the summer monsoon from the MWP toward the beginning of the Little Ice Age (LIA) at AD 1250; (3) relatively wet/cold conditions occurred between AD 1250 and 1500, shown by relatively light δ18O values; (4) the summer monsoon intensity strongly declined referred by the increase δ18O trend from AD 1500 to AD 1600, perhaps resulting in dry/cold conditions; and (5) a strongly enhancement of the summer monsoon intensity appeared from AD 1700 to 1950, reflecting wet/cold conditions during the late period of the LIA. On decadal scales the monsoonal climate of central western Guizhou can be either warm/wet and cold/dry, or warm/dry and cold/wet. The δ13C variations in ZJD-21 on decadal-to-centennial scales respond mainly to vegetation changes with heavier values reflecting lesser amount of forest coverage. Prior to AD 1700, the δ13C generally co-varied with δ18O reflecting the expected more extensive vegetation growth (lighter δ13C) under wetter climate (lighter δ18O). However, during the past 300 years the δ13C increased sharply showing an opposite trend to that of δ18O. This observation strongly suggests that a decline of surface vegetation due to an artificial deforestation might have occurred - an occurrence coincident with the large-scale immigration into central western Guizhou in connection with copper-mining activities during the reign of

Detection of Dry Intrusion on Water Vapor Images Over Central Europe - June 2010 TO September 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novotny, J.; Dejmal, K.; Hudec, F.; Kolar, P.

2016-06-01

The knowledge of evaluation of the intensity of cyclogenesis which could be connected with the weather having a significant impact on Earth's surface is quite useful. If, as one of the basic assumptions, the existence of connection between dry intrusions, dry bands, tropopause height and warm dark areas distribution on water vapor images (WV images) is considered, it is possible to set up a method of detecting dry intrusions on searching and tracking areas with higher brightness temperature compared with the surrounding environment. This paper covers the period between June 2010 and September 2011 over Central Europe. The ISIS method (Instrument de Suivi dans I'Imagerie satellitaire), originally developed for detection of cold cloud tops, was used as an initial ideological point. Subsequently, this method was modified by Michel and Bouttier for usage on WV images. Some of the applied criteria and parameters were chosen with reference to the results published by Michel and Bouttier as well as by Novotny. The procedure can be divided into two steps: detection of warm areas and their tracking. Cases of detection of areas not evidently connected with dry intrusions can be solved by filtering off based on the connection between detected warm areas to the cyclonic side of jet streams and significant lowering of the tropopause.

Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Andrew D.; Karoly, David J.; Henley, Benjamin J.

2017-06-01

To avoid more severe impacts from climate change, there is international agreement to strive to limit warming to below 1.5 °C. However, there is a lack of literature assessing climate change at 1.5 °C and the potential benefits in terms of reduced frequency of extreme events. Here, we demonstrate that existing model simulations provide a basis for rapid and rigorous analysis of the effects of different levels of warming on large-scale climate extremes, using Australia as a case study. We show that limiting warming to 1.5 °C, relative to 2 °C, would perceptibly reduce the frequency of extreme heat events in Australia. The Australian continent experiences a variety of high-impact climate extremes that result in loss of life, and economic and environmental damage. Events similar to the record-hot summer of 2012-2013 and warm seas associated with bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 would be substantially less likely, by about 25% in both cases, if warming is kept to lower levels. The benefits of limiting warming on hydrometeorological extremes are less clear. This study provides a framework for analysing climate extremes at 1.5 °C global warming.

Commonalities of carbon dioxide exchange in semiarid regions with monsoon and Mediterranean climates

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Semiarid ecosystems with monsoon climates receive precipitation during the warm season while Mediterranean systems are characteristically wet in the cool season and dry in the summer. Comparing biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange across these two climate regimes can yield information about the int...

Summer precipitation anomalies in Asia and North America induced by Eurasian non-monsoon land heating versus ENSO.

PubMed

Zhao, Ping; Wang, Bin; Liu, Jiping; Zhou, Xiuji; Chen, Junming; Nan, Sulan; Liu, Ge; Xiao, Dong

2016-02-26

When floods ravage Asian monsoon regions in summer, megadroughts often attack extratropical North America, which feature an intercontinental contrasting precipitation anomaly between Asia and North America. However, the characteristics of the contrasting Asian-North American (CANA) precipitation anomalies and associated mechanisms have not been investigated specifically. In this article, we firmly establish this summer CANA pattern, providing evidence for a significant effect of the land surface thermal forcing over Eurasian non-monsoon regions on the CANA precipitation anomalies by observations and numerical experiments. We show that the origin of the CANA precipitation anomalies and associated anomalous anticyclones over the subtropical North Pacific and Atlantic has a deeper root in Eurasian non-monsoon land surface heating than in North American land surface heating. The ocean forcing from the ENSO is secondary and tends to be confined in the tropics. Our results have strong implications to interpretation of the feedback of global warming on hydrological cycle over Asia and North America. Under the projected global warming due to the anthropogenic forcing, the prominent surface warming over Eurasian non-monsoon regions is a robust feature which, through the mechanism discussed here, would favor a precipitation increase over Asian monsoon regions and a precipitation decrease over extratropical North America.

Exceptional summer warming leads to contrasting outcomes for methane cycling in small Arctic lakes of Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cadieux, Sarah B.; White, Jeffrey R.; Pratt, Lisa M.

2017-02-01

In thermally stratified lakes, the greatest annual methane emissions typically occur during thermal overturn events. In July of 2012, Greenland experienced significant warming that resulted in substantial melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and enhanced runoff events. This unusual climate phenomenon provided an opportunity to examine the effects of short-term natural heating on lake thermal structure and methane dynamics and compare these observations with those from the following year, when temperatures were normal. Here, we focus on methane concentrations within the water column of five adjacent small lakes on the ice-free margin of southwestern Greenland under open-water and ice-covered conditions from 2012-2014. Enhanced warming of the epilimnion in the lakes under open-water conditions in 2012 led to strong thermal stability and the development of anoxic hypolimnia in each of the lakes. As a result, during open-water conditions, mean dissolved methane concentrations in the water column were significantly (p < 0.0001) greater in 2012 than in 2013. In all of the lakes, mean methane concentrations under ice-covered conditions were significantly (p < 0.0001) greater than under open-water conditions, suggesting spring overturn is currently the largest annual methane flux to the atmosphere. As the climate continues to warm, shorter ice cover durations are expected, which may reduce the winter inventory of methane and lead to a decrease in total methane flux during ice melt. Under open-water conditions, greater heat income and warming of lake surface waters will lead to increased thermal stratification and hypolimnetic anoxia, which will consequently result in increased water column inventories of methane. This stored methane will be susceptible to emissions during fall overturn, which may result in a shift in greatest annual efflux of methane from spring melt to fall overturn. The results of this study suggest that interannual variation in ground-level air

Spatio-temporal variability of Arctic summer temperatures over the past 2 millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, Johannes P.; Divine, Dmitry V.; Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik; Nilsen, Tine; Francus, Pierre

2018-04-01

In this article, the first spatially resolved and millennium-length summer (June-August) temperature reconstruction over the Arctic and sub-Arctic domain (north of 60° N) is presented. It is based on a set of 44 annually dated temperature-sensitive proxy archives of various types from the revised PAGES2k database supplemented with six new recently updated proxy records. As a major advance, an extension of the Bayesian BARCAST climate field (CF) reconstruction technique provides a means to treat climate archives with dating uncertainties. This results not only in a more precise reconstruction but additionally enables joint probabilistic constraints to be imposed on the chronologies of the used archives. The new seasonal CF reconstruction for the Arctic region can be shown to be skilful for the majority of the terrestrial nodes. The decrease in the proxy data density back in time, however, limits the analyses in the spatial domain to the period after 750 CE, while the spatially averaged reconstruction covers the entire time interval of 1-2002 CE.The centennial to millennial evolution of the reconstructed temperature is in good agreement with a general pattern that was inferred in recent studies for the Arctic and its subregions. In particular, the reconstruction shows a pronounced Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; here ca. 920-1060 CE), which was characterised by a sequence of extremely warm decades over the whole domain. The medieval warming was followed by a gradual cooling into the Little Ice Age (LIA), with 1766-1865 CE as the longest centennial-scale cold period, culminating around 1811-1820 CE for most of the target region.In total over 600 independent realisations of the temperature CF were generated. As showcased for local and regional trends and temperature anomalies, operating in a probabilistic framework directly results in comprehensive uncertainty estimates, even for complex analyses. For the presented multi-scale trend analysis, for example, the spread in

The Tropical Western Hemisphere Warm Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chunzai; Enfield, David B.

The Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) of water warmer than 28.5°C extends from the eastern North Pacific to the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, and at its peak, overlaps with the tropical North Atlantic. It has a large seasonal cycle and its interannual fluctuations of area and intensity are significant. Surface heat fluxes warm the WHWP through the boreal spring to an annual maximum of SST and areal extent in the late summer/early fall, associated with eastern North Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activities and rainfall from northern South America to the southern tier of the United States. SST and area anomalies occur at high temperatures where small changes can have a large impact on tropical convection. Observations suggest that a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback operating through longwave radiation and associated cloudiness is responsible for the WHWP SST anomalies. Associated with an increase in SST anomalies is a decrease in atmospheric sea level pressure anomalies and an anomalous increase in atmospheric convection and cloudiness. The increase in convective activity and cloudiness results in less longwave radiation loss from the surface, which then reinforces SST anomalies.

Impacts of Local Soil Moisture Anomalies on the Atmospheric Circulation and on Remote Surface Meteorological Fields During Boreal Summer: A Comprehensive Analysis over North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Chang, Yehui; Wang, Hailan; Schubert, Siegfried D.

2016-01-01

We perform a series of stationary wave model (SWM) experiments in which the boreal summer atmosphere is forced, over a number of locations in the continental U.S., with an idealized diabatic heating anomaly that mimics the atmospheric heating associated with a dry land surface. For localized heating within a large portion of the continental interior, regardless of the specific location of this heating, the spatial pattern of the forced atmospheric circulation anomaly (in terms of 250-mb eddy streamfunction) is largely the same: a high anomaly forms over west central North America and a low anomaly forms to the east. In supplemental atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments, we find similar results; imposing soil moisture dryness in the AGCM in different locations within the US interior tends to produce the aforementioned pattern, along with an associated near-surface warming and precipitation deficit in the center of the continent. The SWM-based and AGCM-based patterns generally agree with composites generated using reanalysis and precipitation gauge data. The AGCM experiments also suggest that dry anomalies imposed in the lower Mississippi Valley have remote surface impacts of particularly large spatial extent, and a region along the eastern half of the US-Canada border is particularly sensitive to dry anomalies in a number of remote areas. Overall, the SWM and AGCM experiments support the idea of a positive feedback loop operating over the continent: dry surface conditions in many interior locations lead to changes in atmospheric circulation that act to enhance further the overall dryness of the continental interior.

Northern Galápagos Corals Reveal Twentieth Century Warming in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez, Gloria; Cole, Julia E.; Thompson, Diane M.; Tudhope, Alexander W.

2018-02-01

Models and observations disagree regarding sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the eastern tropical Pacific. We present a new Sr/Ca-SST record that spans 1940-2010 from two Wolf Island corals (northern Galápagos). Trend analysis of the Wolf record shows significant warming on multiple timescales, which is also present in several other records and gridded instrumental products. Together, these data sets suggest that most of the eastern tropical Pacific has warmed over the twentieth century. In contrast, recent decades have been characterized by warming during boreal spring and summer (especially north of the equator), and subtropical cooling during boreal fall and winter (especially south of the equator). These SST trends are consistent with the effects of radiative forcing, mitigated by cooling due to wind forcing during boreal winter, as well as intensified upwelling and a strengthened Equatorial Undercurrent.

Physical mechanisms of spring and summertime drought related with the global warming over the northern America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, W.; Kim, K. Y.

2017-12-01

Drought during the growing season (spring through summer) is severe natural hazard in the large cropland over the northern America. It is important to understand how the drought is related with the global warming and how it will change in the future. This study aims to investigate the physical mechanism of global warming impact on the spring and summertime drought over the northern America using Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function (CSEOF) analysis. The Northern Hemisphere surface warming, the most dominant mode of the surface air temperature, has resulted in decreased relative humidity and precipitation over the mid-latitude region of North America. For the viewpoint of atmospheric water demand, soil moisture and evaporation have also decreased significantly, exacerbating vulnerability of drought. These consistent features of changes in water demand and supply related with the global warming can provide a possibility of credible insight for future drought change.

The Question of Future Droughts in a CO2-Warmed World

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, David

1999-01-01

Increased droughts are to be expected in a warmer world, and so are increased floods. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, and evaporate more water from the surface. Thus, when it is not raining, available soil water should be reduced. When it is raining, it could very well rain harder. Most researchers agree then that a warmer world will have greater hydrologic extremes. In addition, there is a basic imbalance that develops as climate warms, between the loss of moisture from the soil by evaporation and replenishment via precipitation. The land has a smaller heat capacity than the ocean, so it should warm faster. Evaporation from the land proceeds at the rate of its warming, while precipitation derives primarily from evaporation at the ocean surface. As the latter is increasing more slowly, in a warmer world, precipitation will not increase as rapidly as evaporation due to the fact that the oceans warm more slowly than the land surface (evaporation over the ocean is slower than over the land). Hence, more droughts are anticipated in a warmer world, but the specific location of such droughts is somewhat uncertain. To address the question of where droughts are likely to occur, one first needs to have a reasonable sense of what the future magnitude of warming will be, and what the latitudinal distribution of warming will be. For example, the greater the warming at high latitudes relative to low latitudes, the more likely there will be increased drought over the U.S. in summer. In contrast, substantial tropical warming could give us El Nino-like precipitation, with intensified flooding along the southern tier of the U.S. All of these conditions are likely to intensify as the global temperature rises.

Coastal Fog Sustains Summer Baseflow in Northern Californian Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, M.; Dufour, A.; Leonardson, R.; Thompson, S. E.; Dawson, T. E.

2015-12-01

The Mediterranean climate of Northern California imposes significant water stress on ecosystems and water resources during the dry summer months. During summer, frequently the only water inputs occur as occult precipitation, in the form of fog and dew. In this study, we characterized the role of coastal fog, a dominant feature of Northern Californian coastal ecosystems and a widespread phenomenon associated with deep marine upwelling in west coast, arid, and Mediterranean climates worldwide. We monitored fog occurrence and intensity, throughfall following canopy interception of fog, soil moisture, streamflow, and meteorological variables, and made visual observations of the spatial extent of fog using time-lapse imagery in Upper Pilarcitos Creek Watershed (managed by San Francisco Public Utilities Commission as part of the San Francisco area water supply). We adopted a stratified sampling design that captured the watershed's elevation gradient, forest-edge versus interior locations, and different vegetation cover. The point-scale observations of throughfall inputs and transpiration suppression, estimated from the Penman equation, were upscaled using such watershed features and the observed fog "footprint" identified from the time-lapse images. When throughfall input and fog-induced transpiration suppression were incorporated into the operational watershed model, they improved estimates of summer baseflow, which remained persistently higher than could be explained without the fog effects. Fog, although providing relatively small volumetric inputs to the water balance, appears to offer significant relief of water stress throughout the terrestrial and aquatic components of the coastal Californian ecosystem and thus should be accounted for when assessing water stress availability in dry ecosystems.

Ecotypic variation of summer dormancy relaxation associated with rainfall gradient in the geophytic grass Poa bulbosa

PubMed Central

Ofir, Micha; Kigel, Jaime

2010-01-01

Background and Aims Summer dormancy is an adaptive trait in geophytes inhabiting regions with a Mediterranean climate, allowing their survival through the hot and dry summers. Summer dormancy in Poa bulbosa is induced by increasing day-length and temperature and decreasing water availability during spring. Populations from arid habitats became dormant earlier than those from mesic habitats. Relaxation of dormancy was promoted by the hot, dry summer conditions. Here we test the hypothesis that dormancy relaxation is also delayed in ecotypes of P. bulbosa inhabiting arid regions, as a cautious strategy related to the greater unpredictability of autumn rains associated with decreasing precipitation. Methods Ecotypes collected across a precipitation gradient (100–1200 mm year−1) in the Mediterranean climate region were grown under similar conditions in a net-house in Israel. Differences among ecotypes in dormancy induction and dormancy relaxation were determined by measuring time to dormancy onset in spring, and time to sprouting after the first effective rain in autumn. Seasonal and ecotype variation in dormancy relaxation were assessed by measuring time to sprouting initiation, rate of sprouting and maximal sprouting of resting dry bulbs sampled in the net-house during late spring, and mid- and late summer, and planted in a wet substrate at temperatures promoting (10 °C) or limiting (20 °C) sprouting. Key Results Earlier dormancy in the spring and delayed sprouting in autumn were correlated with decreasing mean annual rainfall at the site of ecotype origin. Seasonal and ecotype differences in dormancy relaxation were expressed in bulbs planted at 20 °C. During the summer, time to sprouting decreased while rate of sprouting and maximal sprouting increased, indicating dormancy relaxation. Ecotypes from more arid sites across the rainfall gradient showed delayed onset of sprouting and lower maximal sprouting, but did not differ in rate of sprouting. Planting at

Western US high June 2015 temperatures and their relation to global warming and soil moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Kew, Sarah F.; Hauser, Mathias; Guillod, Benoit P.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Whan, Kirien; Uhe, Peter; Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van

2018-04-01

The Western US states Washington (WA), Oregon (OR) and California (CA) experienced extremely high temperatures in June 2015. The temperature anomalies were so extreme that they cannot be explained with global warming alone. We investigate the hypothesis that soil moisture played an important role as well. We use a land surface model and a large ensemble from the weather@home modelling effort to investigate the coupling between soil moisture and temperature in a warming world. Both models show that May was anomalously dry, satisfying a prerequisite for the extreme heat wave, and they indicate that WA and OR are in a wet-to-dry transitional soil moisture regime. We use two different land surface-atmosphere coupling metrics to show that there was strong coupling between temperature, latent heat flux and the effect of soil moisture deficits on the energy balance in June 2015 in WA and OR. June temperature anomalies conditioned on wet/dry conditions show that both the mean and extreme temperatures become hotter for dry soils, especially in WA and OR. Fitting a Gaussian model to temperatures using soil moisture as a covariate shows that the June 2015 temperature values fit well in the extrapolated empirical temperature/drought lines. The high temperature anomalies in WA and OR are thus to be expected, given the dry soil moisture conditions and that those regions are in the transition from a wet to a dry regime. CA is already in the dry regime and therefore the necessity of taking soil moisture into account is of lower importance.

Dry Eye Disease: Prevalence, Assessment, and Management.

PubMed

Rouen, Patricia A; White, Mary L

Dry eye disease is a chronic condition of the corneal surface marked by persistent symptoms of irritation or burning that can cause inflammatory damage to the cornea and conjunctiva if untreated. Common risk factors for this syndrome include advancing age, female sex, low humidity environments, systemic medications, and autoimmune disorders. Treatments to relieve symptoms include tear replacement, humidification, improved nutrition, and anti-inflammatory ocular agents. Home healthcare nurses can identify signs and symptoms of dry eye syndrome and initiate strategies that range from warm compresses to physician referrals for more aggressive treatment. Consistent management of this condition improves quality of life and minimizes damage to the ocular surface.

Retrospective seasonal prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over West Central and Peninsular India in the past 142 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Juan; Wang, Bin; Yang, Young-Min

2017-04-01

Prediction of Indian summer (June-September) rainfall on regional scales remains an open issue. The operational predictions of West Central Indian summer rainfall (WCI-R) and Peninsular Indian summer rainfall (PI-R) made by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had no skills during 2004-2012. This motivates the present study aiming at better understanding the predictability sources and physical processes governing summer rainfall variability over these two regions. Analysis of 133 year data reveal that although the lower boundary forcing that associated with enhanced WCI-R and PI-R featured a similar developing La-Nina and "east high west low" sea-level pressure (SLP) dipole pattern across the Indo-Pacific, the anomalous high sea surface temperature (SST) over the northern Indian Ocean and weak low pressure over northern Asia tended to enhance PI-R but reduce WCI-R. Based on our understanding of physical linkages with the predictands, we selected four and two causative predictors for predictions of the WCI-R and PI-R, respectively. The intensified summer WCI-R is preceded by (a) Indian Ocean zonal dipole-like SST tendency (west-warming and east-cooling), (b) tropical Pacific zonal dipole SST tendency (west-warming and east-cooling), (c) central Pacific meridional dipole SST tendency (north-cooling and south-warming), and (d) decreasing SLP tendency over northern Asia in the previous season. The enhanced PI-R was lead by the central-eastern Pacific cooling and 2-m temperature cooling tendency east of Lake Balkhash in the previous seasons. These causative processes linking the predictors and WCI-R and PI-R are supported by ensemble numerical experiments using a coupled climate model. For the period of 1871-2012, the physics-based empirical (P-E) prediction models built on these predictors result in cross-validated forecast temporal correlation coefficient skills of 0.55 and 0.47 for WCI-R and PI-R, respectively. The independent forecast skill is significantly

Observed large-scale structures and diabatic heating and drying profiles during TWP-ICE

DOE PAGES

Xie, Shaocheng; Hume, Timothy; Jakob, Christian; ...

2010-01-01

This study documents the characteristics of the large-scale structures and diabatic heating and drying profiles observed during the Tropical Warm Pool–International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE), which was conducted in January–February 2006 in Darwin during the northern Australian monsoon season. The examined profiles exhibit significant variations between four distinct synoptic regimes that were observed during the experiment. The active monsoon period is characterized by strong upward motion and large advective cooling and moistening throughout the entire troposphere, while the suppressed and clear periods are dominated by moderate midlevel subsidence and significant low- to midlevel drying through horizontal advection. The midlevel subsidence andmore » horizontal dry advection are largely responsible for the dry midtroposphere observed during the suppressed period and limit the growth of clouds to low levels. During the break period, upward motion and advective cooling and moistening located primarily at midlevels dominate together with weak advective warming and drying (mainly from horizontal advection) at low levels. The variations of the diabatic heating and drying profiles with the different regimes are closely associated with differences in the large-scale structures, cloud types, and rainfall rates between the regimes. Strong diabatic heating and drying are seen throughout the troposphere during the active monsoon period while they are moderate and only occur above 700 hPa during the break period. The diabatic heating and drying tend to have their maxima at low levels during the suppressed periods. Furthermore, the diurnal variations of these structures between monsoon systems, continental/coastal, and tropical inland-initiated convective systems are also examined.« less

Influence of drying time and temperature on bond strength of contemporary adhesives to dentine.

PubMed

Garcia, Fernanda C P; Almeida, Júlio C F; Osorio, Raquel; Carvalho, Ricardo M; Toledano, Manuel

2009-04-01

To evaluate the bond strength (microTBS) of self-etching adhesives in different solvent evaporation conditions. Flat dentine surfaces from extracted human third molars were bonded with: (1) 2 two-steps self-etching adhesives (Clearfil SE Bond-CSEB); (Protect Bond-PB) and (2) 2 one-step self-etch systems (Adper Prompt L Pop-ADPLP); (Xeno III-XIII). Bonded dentine surfaces were air-dried for 5s, 20s, 30s or 40s at either 21 degrees C or 38 degrees C. Composite build-ups were constructed incrementally. After storage in water for 24h at 37 degrees C, the specimens were prepared for microtensile bond strength testing. Data were analyzed by two-way ANOVA and Student-Newman-Keuls at alpha=0.05. CSEB and PB performed better at warm temperature with only 20s of air-blowing. The bond strength increased when XIII was performed at warm temperature at 40s air-blowing. Extended air-blowing not affect the performance of ADPLP, except at 30s air-blowing time at warm temperature. The use of a warm air-dry stream seems to be a clinical tool to improve the bond strength to self-etching adhesives.

Tracing the Inter-Hemispheric Coupling During Polar Summer Periods of 2002-2010 Using TIMED/SABER Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Richard; Feoflow, Artem; Pesnell, Dean; Kutepov, Alexander

2010-01-01

It has been found that for more than one polar summer season between 2002-2010, the northern polar mesospheric region near and above the mesospheric maximum was warmer than normal. The strongest warming effect of this type was observed to occur during northern summer 2002. Theoretical studies have implied that these "anomalies" were preceded by unusual dynamical processes occurring in the southern hemisphere. We have analyzed temperature distributions measured by the SABER limb scanning infrared radiometer aboard the NASA TIMED satellite between 2002-2010 at altitudes from 15 to 110 km and for latitudes between 83 deg. S to 83 deg. N. We describe the approach to trace the inter-hemispheric temperature correlatoins and to identify the global features that were unique for the "anomalous" northern polar summers.

Effect of feeding warm-season annuals with orchardgrass on ruminal fermentation and methane output in continuous culture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A 4-unit, dual-flow continuous culture fermentor system was used to assess nutrient digestibility, volatile fatty acids (VFA) production, bacterial protein synthesis and CH4 output of warm-season summer annual grasses. Treatments were randomly assigned to fermentors in a 4 × 4 Latin square design us...

Spatial differentiation of China's summer tourist destinations based on climatic suitability using the Universal Thermal Climate Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jun; Zhang, Zhenchao; Li, Xueming; Xi, Jianchao; Feng, Zhangxian

2017-11-01

As a result of global warming and the gradual exacerbation of the urban heat island effect, vacationing in the summer to escape the heat has become a compelling tourism demand. This study examines the spatial differentiation of China's summer tourist destinations based on meteorological observations and tourism resources data from 1960 to 2014. The Universal Thermal Climate Index and analytic hierarchy process model were used to analyze climatic suitability. The findings are as follows. First, the spatial distribution of China's summer tourism resources exhibits a double-peak characteristic, with concentrations in the mid- and high-latitude and high-altitude regions. Second, the most influential destinations in China based on the composite index were Guiyang, Qingdao, Harbin, and Dalian. These findings can helpful for people who are planning their summer vacations, as well as tourism managers who benefit from such increases in the number of tourists.

Fuel treatments, fire suppression, and their interaction with wildfire and its impacts: the Warm Lake experience during the Cascade Complex of wildfires in central Idaho, 2007

Treesearch

Russell T. Graham; Theresa B. Jain; Mark Loseke

2009-01-01

Wildfires during the summer of 2007 burned over 500,000 acres within central Idaho. These fires burned around and through over 8,000 acres of fuel treatments designed to offer protection from wildfire to over 70 summer homes and other buildings located near Warm Lake. This area east of Cascade, Idaho, exemplifies the difficulty of designing and implementing fuel...

Effects of air-sea coupling over the North Sea and the Baltic Sea on simulated summer precipitation over Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho-Hagemann, Ha Thi Minh; Gröger, Matthias; Rockel, Burkhardt; Zahn, Matthias; Geyer, Beate; Meier, H. E. Markus

2017-12-01

This study introduces a new approach to investigate the potential effects of air-sea coupling on simulated precipitation inland over Central Europe. We present an inter-comparison of two regional climate models (RCMs), namely, the COSMO-CLM (hereafter CCLM) and RCA4 models, which are configured for the EURO-CORDEX domain in the coupled and atmosphere-only modes. Two versions of the CCLM model, namely, 4.8 and 5.0, join the inter-comparison being almost two different models while providing pronouncedly different summer precipitation simulations because of many changes in the dynamics and physics of CCLM in version 5.0. The coupling effect on the prominent summer dry bias over Central Europe is analysed using seasonal (JJA) mean statistics for the 30-year period from 1979 to 2009, with a focus on extreme precipitation under specific weather regimes. The weather regimes are compared between the coupled and uncoupled simulations to better understand the mechanism of the coupling effects. The comparisons of the coupled systems with the atmosphere-only models show that coupling clearly reduces the dry bias over Central Europe for CCLM 4.8, which has a large dry summer bias, but not for CCLM 5.0 and RCA4, which have smaller dry biases. This result implies that if the atmosphere-only model already yields reasonable summer precipitation over Central Europe, not much room for improvement exists that can be caused by the air-sea coupling over the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. However, if the atmosphere-only model shows a pronounced summer dry bias because of a lack of moisture transport from the seas into the region, the considered coupling may create an improved simulation of summer precipitation over Central Europe, such as for CCLM 4.8. For the latter, the benefit of coupling varies over the considered timescales. The precipitation simulations that are generated by the coupled system COSTRICE 4.8 and the atmosphere-only CCLM 4.8 are mostly identical for the summer mean

The 'Year without summer 1816

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arfeuille, F.; Rozanov, E.; Peter, T.; Weisenstein, D.; Hadorn, G.; Bodenmann, T.; Brönnimann, S.

2010-09-01

One famous example of an extreme climatic event is the cold summer of 1816 in Europe and North America. This specific year, which was later called the "Year without summer 1816", had profound social and environmental effects. The cataclysmic eruption of Mt Tambora is now commonly known to have largely contributed to the negative temperature anomalies of the summer 1816, but some uncertainties remain. The eruption which occurred in April 1815 is the largest within the last 500 years and this extreme climatic forcing provides a real test for climate models. A crucial parameter to assess in order to simulate this eruption is the aerosol size distribution, which strongly influences the radiative impact of the aerosols (through changes in albedo and residence time in the stratosphere, among others) and the impacts on dynamics and chemistry. The representation of this major forcing is done by using the AER-2D aerosol model which calculates the size distribution of the aerosols formed after the eruption. The modeling of the climatic impacts is then done by the state-of-the-art Chemistry-Climate model (CCM) SOCOL. The characteristics of the Tambora eruption and results from simulations made using the aerosol model/CCM, with an emphasis on the radiative and chemical implications of the large aerosol, will be shown. For instance, the specific absorption/scattering ratio of Mt.Tambora aerosols induced a large stratospheric warming which will be analyzed. The climatic impacts will also be discussed in regards of the high sedimentation rate of Mt. Tambora aerosols, leading to a fast decrease of the atmospheric optical depth in the first two years after the eruption. The link will be made between the modeling results and proxy-reconstructions as well as with available historical daily data from Geneva, Switzerland. Finally, insights on the contemporary response to this climatic extreme will be shown.

Virtual Reality Robotic Surgery Warm-Up Improves Task Performance in a Dry Lab Environment: A Prospective Randomized Controlled Study

PubMed Central

Lendvay, Thomas S.; Brand, Timothy C.; White, Lee; Kowalewski, Timothy; Jonnadula, Saikiran; Mercer, Laina; Khorsand, Derek; Andros, Justin; Hannaford, Blake; Satava, Richard M.

2014-01-01

Background Pre-operative simulation “warm-up” has been shown to improve performance and reduce errors in novice and experienced surgeons, yet existing studies have only investigated conventional laparoscopy. We hypothesized a brief virtual reality (VR) robotic warm-up would enhance robotic task performance and reduce errors. Study Design In a two-center randomized trial, fifty-one residents and experienced minimally invasive surgery faculty in General Surgery, Urology, and Gynecology underwent a validated robotic surgery proficiency curriculum on a VR robotic simulator and on the da Vinci surgical robot. Once successfully achieving performance benchmarks, surgeons were randomized to either receive a 3-5 minute VR simulator warm-up or read a leisure book for 10 minutes prior to performing similar and dissimilar (intracorporeal suturing) robotic surgery tasks. The primary outcomes compared were task time, tool path length, economy of motion, technical and cognitive errors. Results Task time (-29.29sec, p=0.001, 95%CI-47.03,-11.56), path length (-79.87mm, p=0.014, 95%CI -144.48,-15.25), and cognitive errors were reduced in the warm-up group compared to the control group for similar tasks. Global technical errors in intracorporeal suturing (0.32, p=0.020, 95%CI 0.06,0.59) were reduced after the dissimilar VR task. When surgeons were stratified by prior robotic and laparoscopic clinical experience, the more experienced surgeons(n=17) demonstrated significant improvements from warm-up in task time (-53.5sec, p=0.001, 95%CI -83.9,-23.0) and economy of motion (0.63mm/sec, p=0.007, 95%CI 0.18,1.09), whereas improvement in these metrics was not statistically significantly appreciated in the less experienced cohort(n=34). Conclusions We observed a significant performance improvement and error reduction rate among surgeons of varying experience after VR warm-up for basic robotic surgery tasks. In addition, the VR warm-up reduced errors on a more complex task (robotic

Biocrusts modulate warming and rainfall exclusion effects on soil respiration in a semi-arid grassland

PubMed Central

Escolar, Cristina; Maestre, Fernando T.; Rey, Ana

2015-01-01

Soil surface communities composed of cyanobacteria, algae, mosses, liverworts, fungi, bacteria and lichens (biocrusts) largely affect soil respiration in dryland ecosystems. Climate change is expected to have large effects on biocrusts and associated ecosystem processes. However, few studies so far have experimentally assessed how expected changes in temperature and rainfall will affect soil respiration in biocrust-dominated ecosystems. We evaluated the impacts of biocrust development, increased air temperature and decreased precipitation on soil respiration dynamics during dry (2009) and wet (2010) years, and investigated the relative importance of soil temperature and moisture as environmental drivers of soil respiration, in a semiarid grassland from central Spain. Soil respiration rates were significantly lower in the dry than during the wet year, regardless of biocrust cover. Warming increased soil respiration rates, but this response was only significant in biocrust-dominated areas (> 50% biocrust cover). Warming also increased the temperature sensitivity (Q10 values) of soil respiration in biocrust-dominated areas, particularly during the wet year. The combination of warming and rainfall exclusion had similar effects in low biocrust cover areas. Our results highlight the importance of biocrusts as a modulator of soil respiration responses to both warming and rainfall exclusion, and indicate that they must be explicitly considered when evaluating soil respiration responses to climate change in drylands. PMID:25914428

Premonsoon Aerosol Characterization and Radiative Effects Over the Indo-Gangetic Plains: Implications for Regional Climate Warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gautam, Ritesh; Hsu, N. Christina; Lau, K.-M.

2010-01-01

The Himalayas have a profound effect on the South Asian climate and the regional hydrological cycle, as it forms a barrier for the strong monsoon winds and serves as an elevated heat source, thus controlling the onset and distribution of precipitation during the Indian summer monsoon. Recent studies have suggested that radiative heating by absorbing aerosols, such as dust and black carbon over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) and slopes of the Himalayas, may significantly accelerate the seasonal warming of the Hindu Kush-Himalayas-Tibetan Plateau (HKHT) and influence the subsequent evolution of the summer monsoon. This paper presents a detailed characterization of aerosols over the IGP and their radiative effects during the premonsoon season (April-May-June) when dust transport constitutes the bulk of the regional aerosol loading, using ground radiometric and spaceborne observations. During the dust-laden period, there is a strong response of surface shortwave flux to aerosol absorption indicated by the diurnally averaged forcing efficiency of -70 W/sq m per unit optical depth. The simulated aerosol single-scattering albedo, constrained by surface flux and aerosol measurements, is estimated to be 0.89+/- 0.01 (at approx.550 nm) with diurnal mean surface and top-of-atmosphere forcing values ranging from -11 to -79.8 W/sq m and +1.4 to +12 W/sq m, respectively, for the premonsoon period. The model-simulated solar heating rate profile peaks in the lower troposphere with enhanced heating penetrating into the middle troposphere (5-6 km), caused by vertically extended aerosols over the IGP with peak altitude of approx.5 km as indicated by spaceborne Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization observations. On a long-term climate scale, our analysis, on the basis of microwave satellite measurements of tropospheric temperatures from 1979 to 2007, indicates accelerated annual mean warming rates found over the Himalayan-Hindu Kush region (0.21 C/decade+/-0.08 C

The phenology of Arctic Ocean surface warming.

PubMed

Steele, Michael; Dickinson, Suzanne

2016-09-01

In this work, we explore the seasonal relationships (i.e., the phenology) between sea ice retreat, sea surface temperature (SST), and atmospheric heat fluxes in the Pacific Sector of the Arctic Ocean, using satellite and reanalysis data. We find that where ice retreats early in most years, maximum summertime SSTs are usually warmer, relative to areas with later retreat. For any particular year, we find that anomalously early ice retreat generally leads to anomalously warm SSTs. However, this relationship is weak in the Chukchi Sea, where ocean advection plays a large role. It is also weak where retreat in a particular year happens earlier than usual, but still relatively late in the season, primarily because atmospheric heat fluxes are weak at that time. This result helps to explain the very different ocean warming responses found in two recent years with extreme ice retreat, 2007 and 2012. We also find that the timing of ice retreat impacts the date of maximum SST, owing to a change in the ocean surface buoyancy and momentum forcing that occurs in early August that we term the Late Summer Transition (LST). After the LST, enhanced mixing of the upper ocean leads to cooling of the ocean surface even while atmospheric heat fluxes are still weakly downward. Our results indicate that in the near-term, earlier ice retreat is likely to cause enhanced ocean surface warming in much of the Arctic Ocean, although not where ice retreat still occurs late in the season.

Global warming reduces plant reproductive output for temperate multi-inflorescence species on the Tibetan plateau.

PubMed

Liu, Yinzhan; Mu, Junpeng; Niklas, Karl J; Li, Guoyong; Sun, Shucun

2012-07-01

• Temperature is projected to increase more during the winter than during the summer in cold regions. The effects of winter warming on reproductive effort have not been examined for temperate plant species. • Here, we report the results of experimentally induced seasonal winter warming (0.4 and 2.4°C increases in growing and nongrowing seasons, respectively, using warmed and ambient open-top chambers in a Tibetan Plateau alpine meadow) for nine indeterminate-growing species producing multiple (single-flowered or multi-flowered) inflorescences and three determinate-growing species producing single inflorescences after a 3-yr period of warming. • Warming reduced significantly flower number and seed production per plant for all nine multi-inflorescence species, but not for the three single-inflorescence species. Warming had an insignificant effect on the fruit to flower number ratio, seed size and seed number per fruit among species. The reduction in seed production was largely attributable to the decline in flower number per plant. The flowering onset time was unaffected for nine of the 12 species. Therefore, the decline in flower production and seed production in response to winter warming probably reflects a physiological response (e.g. metabolic changes associated with flower production). • Collectively, the data indicate that global warming may reduce flower and seed production for temperate herbaceous species and will probably have a differential effect on single- vs multi-inflorescence species. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.

Paleoclimate of the Neoglacial and Roman Warm Period Reconstructed from Oxygen Isotope Ratios of Limpet Shells (Patella vulgata), Northwest Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, T.; Surge, D. M.; Mithen, S.

2010-12-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions from different regions have reported abrupt climate change around 2800-2700 cal yr B.P. The timing of this abrupt climate change is close to the boundary between the Neoglacial (3300-2500 cal yr B.P.) and Roman Warm Period (2500-1600 cal yr B.P.). However, temporal and spatial variability observed in this climate change event raises controversies about the forcing factors driving it and why it has regional variability. Scotland lies in the North Atlantic Ocean, which responds sensitively to climate change. Therefore, even in the case of subtle climate change, the climate variability of Scotland should be able to capture such change. In this study, we expect that paleoclimate reconstructions of the Neoglacial and Roman Warm Period in Scotland will help improve our knowledge of abrupt climate change at 2800-2700 cal yr B.P. Archaeological shell deposits provide a rich source of climate proxy data preserved as oxygen isotope ratios in shell carbonate. Croig Cave on the Isle of Mull, Scotland, contains a nearly continuous accumulation of shells ranging from 800 BC-500 AD and possibly older. This range represents a broad chronology of human use from the late Bronze to Iron Ages and spans the Neoglacial through Roman Warm Period climate episodes. Here, we present seasonal temperature variability of the two climate episodes based on oxygen isotope ratios of ten limpet shells (Patella vulgata) from Croig Cave. Based on AMS dating (2 sigma calibration), the oldest shell was from 3480-3330 cal yr B.P. and the youngest shell was from 2060-1870 cal yr B.P. Our results indicated that estimated temperatures from the Neoglacial limpets average 6.44±0.56°C for coldest winters and 15.06±0.67°C for warmest summers. For the Roman Warm Period limpets, the average is 5.68±0.36°C for coldest winters and 14.14±0.81°C for warmest summers. We compared our estimated temperatures to the present sea surface temperature (SST) from 1961 to 1990 near our

Observed Changes in Upper-Tropospheric Water Vapor Transport From Satellite Measurements During the Summers of 1987 and 1988

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lerner, Jeffrey A.; Jedlovee, Gary J.; Atkinson, Robert J.

1998-01-01

The research described below focuses on the use of satellite measurements to monitor both monthly and interannual changes in UT (upper tropospheric) water vapor transport. The GOES-7 Pathfinder data set is used to estimate both winds and humidity during the summers (JJA) of 1987 and 1988. These two summers are of particular importance to climate variability since they were characterized by a dramatic shift in the Southern Oscillation index (i.e., 1987 as a warm ENSO event and 1988 as a cold La-Nina period) (Arkin, 1988; Ropelewski 1988). The contrasting features of the summers of '87 and '88 are exploited to demonstrate the utility of satellite wind and humidity estimates to analyze the role of water vapor in climate change.

Study of microwave drying of wet materials based on one-dimensional two-phase model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salomatov, Vl V.; Karelin, V. A.

2017-11-01

Currently, microwave is one of the most interesting ways to conduct drying of dielectric materials, in particular coal. In this paper, two processes were considered - heating and drying. The temperature field of the coal semi-mass in the heating mode is found analytically strictly with the use of integral transformations. The drying process is formulated as a nonlinear Stephen problem with a moving boundary of the liquid-vapor phase transformation. The temperature distribution, speed and drying time in this mode are determined approximately analytically. Parametric analysis of the influence of the material and boundary conditions on the dynamics of warming up and drying is revealed.

Wine tasting based on emotional responses: An expedite approach to distinguish between warm and cool climate dry red wine styles.

PubMed

Coste, Amaury; Sousa, Paulo; Malfeito-Ferreira, Manuel

2018-04-01

In this study, we improved an empirical tasting sheet including emotional responses and common sensory attributes. An Optimized Descriptive Profile (ODP) was run to characterize different red wines according to sensory descriptors used in the improved sheet. A total of 5 wines were evaluated by a Consumer Panel (CP) of 103 subjects (36 females, 67 males) using the improved sheet and a Check-All-That-Apply (CATA) list of 25 emotions. In the ODP, the panel identified the main discriminating sensory attributes as "Complexity", "Astringency" and "Duration of the wine fragrance". However, this analysis did not allow for differentiating very distinct dry red wine styles originating from warmer or cooler regions. On the contrary, Principal Component Analysis of emotional attributes demonstrated that these two wine styles could be easily distinguished. In particular, wine with a red-brick color, complex smell and aggressive mouthfeel consistent with those from cooler regions was less liked by the CP than a warm climate gold-awarded wine. Although receiving lower scores considering its color and smell, the former wine was regarded as the most "surprising" in the CATA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An investigation of CMIP5 model biases in simulating the impacts of central Pacific El Niño on the East Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Juan; Chen, Wen; Gong, Hainan; Ying, Jun; Jiang, Wenping

2018-06-01

The delayed impacts of the central Pacific (CP) El Niño on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are evaluated by comparing historical runs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models against reanalysis data. In observations, an anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC), linking CP El Niño to the EASM, forms due to the transition of sea surface temperature (SST) warming into SST cooling over the CP, which generates a WNPAC through a Gill-Matsuno response. In comparison with the observational result, only one-third of the models (i.e., the type-I models) capture a weaker and smaller WNPAC, whereas the other two-thirds (i.e., the type-II models) fail to reproduce a WNPAC. The simulation biases in both of type-I models and type-II models mainly arise from an unrealistic, long-lasting CP El Niño warming, which causes a north Indian Ocean SST warming bias in models through air-sea interaction process. This north Indian Ocean SST warming generates the WNPAC through capacitor effects, which is different from the WNPAC formation mechanism in observations. This discrepancy leads to simulation biases in type-I models. In type-II models, the unrealistic CP El Niño warming persists into summer, which produces an anomalous cyclone over the central-western Pacific. The opposite effect of the CP and north Indian Ocean SST warming on the WNP atmospheric circulation leads to disappearance of the WNPAC. Hence, large simulation biases are produced in type-II models. Further analysis demonstrates the slow decay of CP El Niño is caused by the unrealistically simulated climatological SST, which creates strong warm meridional oceanic advection and results in a sustained CP El Niño warming.

The long-term fate of permafrost peatlands under rapid climate warming

PubMed Central

Swindles, Graeme T.; Morris, Paul J.; Mullan, Donal; Watson, Elizabeth J.; Turner, T. Edward; Roland, Thomas P.; Amesbury, Matthew J.; Kokfelt, Ulla; Schoning, Kristian; Pratte, Steve; Gallego-Sala, Angela; Charman, Dan J.; Sanderson, Nicole; Garneau, Michelle; Carrivick, Jonathan L.; Woulds, Clare; Holden, Joseph; Parry, Lauren; Galloway, Jennifer M.

2015-01-01

Permafrost peatlands contain globally important amounts of soil organic carbon, owing to cold conditions which suppress anaerobic decomposition. However, climate warming and permafrost thaw threaten the stability of this carbon store. The ultimate fate of permafrost peatlands and their carbon stores is unclear because of complex feedbacks between peat accumulation, hydrology and vegetation. Field monitoring campaigns only span the last few decades and therefore provide an incomplete picture of permafrost peatland response to recent rapid warming. Here we use a high-resolution palaeoecological approach to understand the longer-term response of peatlands in contrasting states of permafrost degradation to recent rapid warming. At all sites we identify a drying trend until the late-twentieth century; however, two sites subsequently experienced a rapid shift to wetter conditions as permafrost thawed in response to climatic warming, culminating in collapse of the peat domes. Commonalities between study sites lead us to propose a five-phase model for permafrost peatland response to climatic warming. This model suggests a shared ecohydrological trajectory towards a common end point: inundated Arctic fen. Although carbon accumulation is rapid in such sites, saturated soil conditions are likely to cause elevated methane emissions that have implications for climate-feedback mechanisms. PMID:26647837

Contrasting shrub species respond to early summer temperatures leading to correspondence of shrub growth patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weijers, Stef; Pape, Roland; Löffler, Jörg; Myers-Smith, Isla H.

2018-03-01

The Arctic-alpine biome is warming rapidly, resulting in a gradual replacement of low statured species by taller woody species in many tundra ecosystems. In northwest North America, the remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), suggests an increase in productivity of the Arctic and alpine tundra and a decrease in productivity of boreal forests. However, the responses of contrasting shrub species growing at the same sites to climate drivers remain largely unexplored. Here, we test growth, climate, and NDVI relationships of two contrasting species: the expanding tall deciduous shrub Salix pulchra and the circumarctic evergreen dwarf shrub Cassiope tetragona from an alpine tundra site in the Pika valley in the Kluane Region, southwest Yukon Territories, Canada. We found that annual growth variability of both species at this site is strongly driven by early summer temperatures, despite their contrasting traits and habitats. Shrub growth chronologies for both species were correlated with the regional climate signal and showed spatial correspondence with interannual variation in NDVI in surrounding alpine and Arctic regions. Our results suggest that early summer warming represents a common driver of vegetation change for contrasting shrub species growing in different habitats in the same alpine environments.

The capacity to cope with climate warming declines from temperate to tropical latitudes in two widely distributed Eucalyptus species.

PubMed

Drake, John E; Aspinwall, Michael J; Pfautsch, Sebastian; Rymer, Paul D; Reich, Peter B; Smith, Renee A; Crous, Kristine Y; Tissue, David T; Ghannoum, Oula; Tjoelker, Mark G

2015-01-01

As rapid climate warming creates a mismatch between forest trees and their home environment, the ability of trees to cope with warming depends on their capacity to physiologically adjust to higher temperatures. In widespread species, individual trees in cooler home climates are hypothesized to more successfully acclimate to warming than their counterparts in warmer climates that may approach thermal limits. We tested this prediction with a climate-shift experiment in widely distributed Eucalyptus tereticornis and E. grandis using provenances originating along a ~2500 km latitudinal transect (15.5-38.0°S) in eastern Australia. We grew 21 provenances in conditions approximating summer temperatures at seed origin and warmed temperatures (+3.5 °C) using a series of climate-controlled glasshouse bays. The effects of +3.5 °C warming strongly depended on home climate. Cool-origin provenances responded to warming through an increase in photosynthetic capacity and total leaf area, leading to enhanced growth of 20-60%. Warm-origin provenances, however, responded to warming through a reduction in photosynthetic capacity and total leaf area, leading to reduced growth of approximately 10%. These results suggest that there is predictable intraspecific variation in the capacity of trees to respond to warming; cool-origin taxa are likely to benefit from warming, while warm-origin taxa may be negatively affected. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Storage Stability of Dried Microsclerotia of the Biological Control Pathogen Mycoleptodiscus Terrestris

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

asexual spores (sporogenic germination), or by sexual fruit bodies (carpogenic germination) (Webster and Weber 2007). Plating of dried microsclerotia...While drying the fungus does not appear to impact efficacy, it is unknown how prolonged storage might affect the viability and virulence of the organism...agar (Table 1). Warm water temperatures (25 ºC ± 1 ºC) and the presence of a host plant may have affected both germination and sporulation of the

Evaluation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Impact on Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation in the Atlantic Region in Summer