Total protein of whole saliva as a biomarker of anaerobic threshold.

PubMed

Bortolini, Miguel Junior Sordi; De Agostini, Guilherme Gularte; Reis, Ismair Teodoro; Lamounier, Romeu Paulo Martins Silva; Blumberg, Jeffrey B; Espindola, Foued Salmen

2009-09-01

Saliva provides a convenient and noninvasive matrix for assessing specific physiological parameters, including some biomarkers of exercise. We investigated whether the total protein concentration of whole saliva (TPWS) would reflect the anaerobic threshold during an incremental exercise test. After a warm-up period, 13 nonsmoking men performed a maximum incremental exercise on a cycle ergometer. Blood and stimulated saliva were collected during the test. The TPWS anaerobic threshold (PAT) was determined using the Dmax method. The PAT was correlated with the blood lactate anaerobic threshold (AT; r = .93, p < .05). No significant difference (p = .16) was observed between PAT and AT. Thus, TPWS provides a convenient and noninvasive matrix for determining the anaerobic threshold during incremental exercise tests.

Ocean acidification ameliorates harmful effects of warming in primary consumer.

PubMed

Pedersen, Sindre Andre; Hanssen, Anja Elise

2018-01-01

Climate change-induced warming and ocean acidification are considered two imminent threats to marine biodiversity and current ecosystem structures. Here, we have for the first time examined an animal's response to a complete life cycle of exposure to co-occurring warming (+3°C) and ocean acidification (+1,600 μatm CO 2 ), using the key subarctic planktonic copepod, Calanus finmarchicus , as a model species. The animals were generally negatively affected by warming, which significantly reduced the females' energy status and reproductive parameters (respectively, 95% and 69%-87% vs. control). Unexpectedly, simultaneous acidification partially offset the negative effect of warming in an antagonistic manner, significantly improving reproductive parameters and hatching success (233%-340% improvement vs. single warming exposure). The results provide proof of concept that ocean acidification may partially offset negative effects caused by warming in some species. Possible explanations and ecological implications for the observed antagonistic effect are discussed.

Higher climate warming sensitivity of Siberian larch in small than large forest islands in the fragmented Mongolian forest steppe.

PubMed

Khansaritoreh, Elmira; Dulamsuren, Choimaa; Klinge, Michael; Ariunbaatar, Tumurbaatar; Bat-Enerel, Banzragch; Batsaikhan, Ganbaatar; Ganbaatar, Kherlenchimeg; Saindovdon, Davaadorj; Yeruult, Yolk; Tsogtbaatar, Jamsran; Tuya, Daramragchaa; Leuschner, Christoph; Hauck, Markus

2017-09-01

Forest fragmentation has been found to affect biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in multiple ways. We asked whether forest size and isolation in fragmented woodlands influences the climate warming sensitivity of tree growth in the southern boreal forest of the Mongolian Larix sibirica forest steppe, a naturally fragmented woodland embedded in grassland, which is highly affected by warming, drought, and increasing anthropogenic forest destruction in recent time. We examined the influence of stand size and stand isolation on the growth performance of larch in forests of four different size classes located in a woodland-dominated forest-steppe area and small forest patches in a grassland-dominated area. We found increasing climate sensitivity and decreasing first-order autocorrelation of annual stemwood increment with decreasing stand size. Stemwood increment increased with previous year's June and August precipitation in the three smallest forest size classes, but not in the largest forests. In the grassland-dominated area, the tree growth dependence on summer rainfall was highest. Missing ring frequency has strongly increased since the 1970s in small, but not in large forests. In the grassland-dominated area, the increase was much greater than in the forest-dominated landscape. Forest regeneration decreased with decreasing stand size and was scarce or absent in the smallest forests. Our results suggest that the larch trees in small and isolated forest patches are far more susceptible to climate warming than in large continuous forests pointing to a grim future for the forests in this strongly warming region of the boreal forest that is also under high land use pressure. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Long-term growth-increment chronologies reveal diverse influences of climate forcing on freshwater and forest biota in the Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Black, Bryan A.; Dunham, Jason B.; Blundon, Brett W.; Brim-Box, Jayne; Tepley, Alan J.

2015-01-01

Analyses of how organisms are likely to respond to a changing climate have focused largely on the direct effects of warming temperatures, though changes in other variables may also be important, particularly the amount and timing of precipitation. Here, we develop a network of eight growth-increment width chronologies for freshwater mussel species in the Pacific Northwest, United States and integrate them with tree-ring data to evaluate how terrestrial and aquatic indicators respond to hydroclimatic variability, including river discharge and precipitation. Annual discharge averaged across water years (October 1–September 30) was highly synchronous among river systems and imparted a coherent pattern among mussel chronologies. The leading principal component of the five longest mussel chronologies (1982–2003; PC1mussel) accounted for 47% of the dataset variability and negatively correlated with the leading principal component of river discharge (PC1discharge; r = −0.88; P < 0.0001). PC1mussel and PC1discharge were closely linked to regional wintertime precipitation patterns across the Pacific Northwest, the season in which the vast majority of annual precipitation arrives. Mussel growth was also indirectly related to tree radial growth, though the nature of the relationships varied across the landscape. Negative correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by drought while positive correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by deep or lingering snowpack. Overall, this diverse assemblage of chronologies illustrates the importance of winter precipitation to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and suggests that a complexity of climate responses must be considered when estimating the biological impacts of climate variability and change.

Long-term growth-increment chronologies reveal diverse influences of climate forcing on freshwater and forest biota in the Pacific Northwest.

PubMed

Black, Bryan A; Dunham, Jason B; Blundon, Brett W; Brim-Box, Jayne; Tepley, Alan J

2015-02-01

Analyses of how organisms are likely to respond to a changing climate have focused largely on the direct effects of warming temperatures, though changes in other variables may also be important, particularly the amount and timing of precipitation. Here, we develop a network of eight growth-increment width chronologies for freshwater mussel species in the Pacific Northwest, United States and integrate them with tree-ring data to evaluate how terrestrial and aquatic indicators respond to hydroclimatic variability, including river discharge and precipitation. Annual discharge averaged across water years (October 1-September 30) was highly synchronous among river systems and imparted a coherent pattern among mussel chronologies. The leading principal component of the five longest mussel chronologies (1982-2003; PC1(mussel)) accounted for 47% of the dataset variability and negatively correlated with the leading principal component of river discharge (PC1(discharge); r = -0.88; P < 0.0001). PC1(mussel) and PC1(discharge) were closely linked to regional wintertime precipitation patterns across the Pacific Northwest, the season in which the vast majority of annual precipitation arrives. Mussel growth was also indirectly related to tree radial growth, though the nature of the relationships varied across the landscape. Negative correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by drought while positive correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by deep or lingering snowpack. Overall, this diverse assemblage of chronologies illustrates the importance of winter precipitation to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and suggests that a complexity of climate responses must be considered when estimating the biological impacts of climate variability and change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predominant role of water in regulating the tree-growth response to diurnal asymmetric warmin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Z.; Xia, J.; Cui, E.

2017-12-01

Growth of the Northern Hemisphere trees is affected by diurnal asymmetric warming, which is generally considered to touch off carbon assimilation and increment of carbon storage. Asymmetric effects of diurnal warming on vegetation greenness were validated in previous researches, however, the effect of diurnal warming on wood tissue which stores most carbon of a whole plant is still unknown. Here, we combined ring-width index (RWI), remote sensing-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and climate datasets to detect the effects of daytime and night-time warming on vegetation growth, respectively. Our results indicate that daytime warming enhances NDVI but has neutral effect on tree woody growth over the Northern Hemisphere. Response of wood growth to daytime warming is linearly regulated by soil water availability. The underlying mechanism of different response of canopy and wood growth to daytime warming may attribute to the biomass change, that is, allocation to foliage tissues increased at the expense of wood tissue under warming and water-limited conditions. Night-time warming show neutral effects on NDVI and RWI over the Northern Hemisphere, and the neutral Tmin-NDVI correlations result from the non-linear mediation of soil water availability. Our results highlight the current greening trend under daytime warming does not mean higher carbon sink capacity, the warming-drying climate may impair the large carbon sink of global forests.

Non-linear responses of glaciated prairie wetlands to climate warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, W. Carter; Werner, Brett; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

2016-01-01

The response of ecosystems to climate warming is likely to include threshold events when small changes in key environmental drivers produce large changes in an ecosystem. Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are especially sensitive to climate variability, yet the possibility that functional changes may occur more rapidly with warming than expected has not been examined or modeled. The productivity and biodiversity of these wetlands are strongly controlled by the speed and completeness of a vegetation cover cycle driven by the wet and dry extremes of climate. Two thresholds involving duration and depth of standing water must be exceeded every few decades or so to complete the cycle and to produce highly functional wetlands. Model experiments at 19 weather stations employing incremental warming scenarios determined that wetland function across most of the PPR would be diminished beyond a climate warming of about 1.5–2.0 °C, a critical temperature threshold range identified in other climate change studies.

Brain Temperature in Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats during Physical Exercise in Temperate and Warm Environments.

PubMed

Drummond, Lucas Rios; Kunstetter, Ana Cançado; Vaz, Filipe Ferreira; Campos, Helton Oliveira; Andrade, André Gustavo Pereira de; Coimbra, Cândido Celso; Natali, Antônio José; Wanner, Samuel Penna; Prímola-Gomes, Thales Nicolau

2016-01-01

This study aimed to evaluate brain temperature (Tbrain) changes in spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHRs) subjected to two different physical exercise protocols in temperate or warm environments. We also investigated whether hypertension affects the kinetics of exercise-induced increases in Tbrain relative to the kinetics of abdominal temperature (Tabd) increases. Male 16-week-old normotensive Wistar rats (NWRs) and SHRs were implanted with an abdominal temperature sensor and a guide cannula in the frontal cortex to enable the insertion of a thermistor to measure Tbrain. Next, the animals were subjected to incremental-speed (initial speed of 10 m/min; speed was increased by 1 m/min every 3 min) or constant-speed (60% of the maximum speed) treadmill running until they were fatigued in a temperate (25°C) or warm (32°C) environment. Tbrain, Tabd and tail skin temperature were measured every min throughout the exercise trials. During incremental and constant exercise at 25°C and 32°C, the SHR group exhibited greater increases in Tbrain and Tabd relative to the NWR group. Irrespective of the environment, the heat loss threshold was attained at higher temperatures (either Tbrain or Tabd) in the SHRs. Moreover, the brain-abdominal temperature differential was lower at 32°C in the SHRs than in the NWRs during treadmill running. Overall, we conclude that SHRs exhibit enhanced brain hyperthermia during exercise and that hypertension influences the kinetics of the Tbrain relative to the Tabd increases, particularly during exercise in a warm environment.

Brain Temperature in Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats during Physical Exercise in Temperate and Warm Environments

PubMed Central

Drummond, Lucas Rios; Kunstetter, Ana Cançado; Vaz, Filipe Ferreira; Campos, Helton Oliveira; de Andrade, André Gustavo Pereira; Coimbra, Cândido Celso; Natali, Antônio José

2016-01-01

This study aimed to evaluate brain temperature (Tbrain) changes in spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHRs) subjected to two different physical exercise protocols in temperate or warm environments. We also investigated whether hypertension affects the kinetics of exercise-induced increases in Tbrain relative to the kinetics of abdominal temperature (Tabd) increases. Male 16-week-old normotensive Wistar rats (NWRs) and SHRs were implanted with an abdominal temperature sensor and a guide cannula in the frontal cortex to enable the insertion of a thermistor to measure Tbrain. Next, the animals were subjected to incremental-speed (initial speed of 10 m/min; speed was increased by 1 m/min every 3 min) or constant-speed (60% of the maximum speed) treadmill running until they were fatigued in a temperate (25°C) or warm (32°C) environment. Tbrain, Tabd and tail skin temperature were measured every min throughout the exercise trials. During incremental and constant exercise at 25°C and 32°C, the SHR group exhibited greater increases in Tbrain and Tabd relative to the NWR group. Irrespective of the environment, the heat loss threshold was attained at higher temperatures (either Tbrain or Tabd) in the SHRs. Moreover, the brain-abdominal temperature differential was lower at 32°C in the SHRs than in the NWRs during treadmill running. Overall, we conclude that SHRs exhibit enhanced brain hyperthermia during exercise and that hypertension influences the kinetics of the Tbrain relative to the Tabd increases, particularly during exercise in a warm environment. PMID:27214497

Total Protein of Whole Saliva as a Biomarker of Anaerobic Threshold

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bortolini, Miguel Junior Sordi; De Agostini, Guilherme Gularte; Reis, Ismair Teodoro; Lamounier, Romeu Paulo Martins Silva; Blumberg, Jeffrey B.; Espindola, Foued Salmen

2009-01-01

Saliva provides a convenient and noninvasive matrix for assessing specific physiological parameters, including some biomarkers of exercise. We investigated whether the total protein concentration of whole saliva (TPWS) would reflect the anaerobic threshold during an incremental exercise test. After a warm-up period, 13 nonsmoking men performed a…

Experimental warming increased soil nitrogen sink in the Tibetan permafrost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Ruiying; Wang, Genxu; Yang, Yuanhe; Chen, Xiaopeng

2017-07-01

In permafrost soil, warming regulates the nitrogen (N) cycle either by stimulating N transformation or by enhancing cryoturbation, the mixture of soil layers due to repeated freeze thaw. Here N isotopic values (δ15N) of plants and the soil were investigated in a 7 year warming experiment in a permafrost-affected alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The results revealed that warming significantly decreased the δ15N in the plant (aboveground and belowground parts) and different soil fractions (clay and silt fraction, aggregate, and bulk soil). The decreased soil δ15N was associated with an increase in soil N stock due to greater N fixation. The incremental N retention in plants and soil mineral-associated fractions from warming resulted in a decrease in soil inorganic N, which constrains the role of nitrification/denitrification in soil δ15N, suggesting a restrained rather than an open N cycle. Furthermore, enhanced cryoturbation under warming, identified by a downward redistribution of 137Cs into deeper layers, promoted N protection from transformation. Overall, the decrease in soil δ15N indicated higher rates of N input through fixation relative to N loss through nitrification and denitrification in permafrost-affected ecosystems under warming conditions.

Augmenting responses evoked in area 17 of the cat by intracortical axon collaterals of cortico-geniculate cells.

PubMed Central

Ferster, D; Lindström, S

1985-01-01

Evoked potentials were recorded in the visual cortex of the cat after electrical stimulation of the lateral geniculate nucleus (l.g.n.). The primary response, mediated by geniculo-cortical fibres, was depressed at stimulation frequencies above 7 Hz and replaced by a late potential, the incremental response, which gradually increased in amplitude with successive stimuli. The incremental response was a negative-positive potential in the depth of the cortex with the negative component having maximal amplitude in layer 4. The response reversed polarity in layer 1 to become a positive-negative potential at the surface. The latency of the negative component of the incremental response was about 3.5-4 ms in layer 4, compared to about 1.5 and 2.5 ms for the mono- and disynaptic components of the primary response. The incremental response could only be evoked from the l.g.n. and the optic radiation, not from the optic tract, superior colliculus or other surrounding structures. Within the l.g.n., the effect was only evoked from stimulation sites in approximate retinotopic register with the recording site in the cortex. Low threshold points were found in the A laminae, completely overlapping with the low threshold points for the primary response. Thresholds increased steeply when the stimulation electrode was lowered into the C laminae. The incremental response could still be evoked ten days after the destruction of all cells in the l.g.n. complex by kainic acid. It is concluded that the described incremental response is identical to the augmenting response of Dempsey & Morison (1943) and is mediated by intracortical axon collaterals of antidromically activated cortico-geniculate neurones. Images Plate 1 PMID:4057097

Recent Widespread Tree Growth Decline Despite Increasing Atmospheric CO2

PubMed Central

Silva, Lucas C. R.; Anand, Madhur; Leithead, Mark D.

2010-01-01

Background The synergetic effects of recent rising atmospheric CO2 and temperature are expected to favor tree growth in boreal and temperate forests. However, recent dendrochronological studies have shown site-specific unprecedented growth enhancements or declines. The question of whether either of these trends is caused by changes in the atmosphere remains unanswered because dendrochronology alone has not been able to clarify the physiological basis of such trends. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we combined standard dendrochronological methods with carbon isotopic analysis to investigate whether atmospheric changes enhanced water use efficiency (WUE) and growth of two deciduous and two coniferous tree species along a 9° latitudinal gradient across temperate and boreal forests in Ontario, Canada. Our results show that although trees have had around 53% increases in WUE over the past century, growth decline (measured as a decrease in basal area increment – BAI) has been the prevalent response in recent decades irrespective of species identity and latitude. Since the 1950s, tree BAI was predominantly negatively correlated with warmer climates and/or positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting warming induced water stress. However, where growth declines were not explained by climate, WUE and BAI were linearly and positively correlated, showing that declines are not always attributable to warming induced stress and additional stressors may exist. Conclusions Our results show an unexpected widespread tree growth decline in temperate and boreal forests due to warming induced stress but are also suggestive of additional stressors. Rising atmospheric CO2 levels during the past century resulted in consistent increases in water use efficiency, but this did not prevent growth decline. These findings challenge current predictions of increasing terrestrial carbon stocks under climate change scenarios. PMID:20657763

Recent widespread tree growth decline despite increasing atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

Silva, Lucas C R; Anand, Madhur; Leithead, Mark D

2010-07-21

The synergetic effects of recent rising atmospheric CO(2) and temperature are expected to favor tree growth in boreal and temperate forests. However, recent dendrochronological studies have shown site-specific unprecedented growth enhancements or declines. The question of whether either of these trends is caused by changes in the atmosphere remains unanswered because dendrochronology alone has not been able to clarify the physiological basis of such trends. Here we combined standard dendrochronological methods with carbon isotopic analysis to investigate whether atmospheric changes enhanced water use efficiency (WUE) and growth of two deciduous and two coniferous tree species along a 9 degrees latitudinal gradient across temperate and boreal forests in Ontario, Canada. Our results show that although trees have had around 53% increases in WUE over the past century, growth decline (measured as a decrease in basal area increment--BAI) has been the prevalent response in recent decades irrespective of species identity and latitude. Since the 1950s, tree BAI was predominantly negatively correlated with warmer climates and/or positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting warming induced water stress. However, where growth declines were not explained by climate, WUE and BAI were linearly and positively correlated, showing that declines are not always attributable to warming induced stress and additional stressors may exist. Our results show an unexpected widespread tree growth decline in temperate and boreal forests due to warming induced stress but are also suggestive of additional stressors. Rising atmospheric CO2 levels during the past century resulted in consistent increases in water use efficiency, but this did not prevent growth decline. These findings challenge current predictions of increasing terrestrial carbon stocks under climate change scenarios.

Features of Scots pine radial growth in conditions of provenance trial.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuzmin, Sergey; Kuzmina, Nina

2013-04-01

Provenance trial of Scots pine in Boguchany forestry of Krasnoyarsk krai is conducted on two different soils - dark-grey loam forest soil and sod-podzol sandy soil. Complex of negative factors for plant growth and development appears in dry conditions of sandy soil. It could results in decrease of resistance to diseases. Sandy soils in different climatic zones have such common traits as low absorbing capacity, poorness of elemental nutrition, low microbiological activity and moisture capacity, very high water permeability. But Scots pine trees growing in such conditions could have certain advantages and perspectives of use. In the scope of climate change (global warming) the study of Scots pine growth on sandy soil become urgent because of more frequent appearance of dry seasons. Purpose of the work is revelation of radial growth features of Scots pine with different origin in dry conditions of sandy soil and assessment of external factors influence. The main feature of radial growth of majority of studied pine provenances in conditions of sandy soil is presence of significant variation of increment with distinct decline in 25-years old with loss of tree rings in a number of cases. The reason of it is complex of factors: deficit of June precipitation and next following outbreak of fungal disease. Found «frost rings» for all trees of studied clymatypes in 1992 are the consequence of temperature decline from May 21 to June 2 - from 23 down to 2 degree Celsius. Perspective climatypes with biggest radial increments and least sensitivity to fungal disease were revealed. Eniseysk and Vikhorevka (from Krasnoyarsk krai and Irkutsk oblast)provenances of pine have the biggest radial increments, the least sensitivity to Cenangium dieback and smallest increments decline. These climatypes are in the group of perspective provenances and in present time they are recommended for wide trial in the region for future use in plantation forest growing. Kandalaksha (Murmansk oblast) climatype from northern taiga with good resistance to pathogen have nonsignificant decline in radial increment during epiphytoty in comparison with local and southern climatypes. Southern Chemal provenance (Altai) after influence of Cenangium dieback has more than others losses of tree rings as the result of nonresistance to this fungal disease.

Negative viscosity from negative compressibility and axial flow shear stiffness in a straight magnetic field

DOE PAGES

Li, J. C.; Diamond, P. H.

2017-03-23

Here, negative compressibility ITG turbulence in a linear plasma device (CSDX) can induce a negative viscosity increment. However, even with this negative increment, we show that the total axial viscosity remains positive definite, i.e. no intrinsic axial flow can be generated by pure ITG turbulence in a straight magnetic field. This differs from the case of electron drift wave (EDW) turbulence, where the total viscosity can turn negative, at least transiently. When the flow gradient is steepened by any drive mechanism, so that the parallel shear flow instability (PSFI) exceeds the ITG drive, the flow profile saturates at a level close to the value above which PSFI becomes dominant. This saturated flow gradient exceeds the PSFI linear threshold, and grows withmore » $$\

Long-term growth decline in Toona ciliata in a moist tropical forest in Bangladesh: Impact of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Mizanur; Islam, Rofiqul; Islam, Mahmuda

2017-04-01

Tropical forests are carbon rich ecosystems and small changes in tropical forest tree growth substantially influence the global carbon cycle. Forest monitoring studies report inconsistent growth changes in tropical forest trees over the past decades. Most of the studies highlighted changes in the forest level carbon gain, neglecting the species-specific growth changes which ultimately determine community-level responses. Tree-ring analysis can provide historical data on species-specific tree growth with annual resolution. Such studies are inadequate in Bangladesh, which is one of the most climate sensitive regions in the tropics. In this study, we investigated long-term growth rates of Toona ciliata in a moist tropical forest of Bangladesh by using tree-ring analysis. We sampled 50 trees of varying size, obtained increment cores from these trees and measured tree-ring width. Analyses of growth patterns revealed size-dependent growth increments. After correcting for the effect of tree size on tree growth (ontogenetic changes) by two different methods we found declining growth rates in T. ciliata from 1960 to 2013. Standardized ring-width index (RWI) was strongly negatively correlated with annual mean and maximum temperatures suggesting that rising temperature might cause the observed growth decline in T. ciliata. Assuming that global temperatures will rise at the current rate, the observed growth decline is assumed to continue. The analysis of stable carbon and oxygen isotopes may reveal more insight on the physiological response of this species to future climatic changes.

Cost-effectiveness of negative pressure wound therapy in patients with many comorbidities and severe wounds of various etiology.

PubMed

Driver, Vickie R; Eckert, Kristen A; Carter, Marissa J; French, Michael A

2016-11-01

This study analyzed a cross-section of patients with severe chronic wounds and multiple comorbidities at an outpatient wound clinic, with regard to the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of negative pressure wound therapy (intervention) vs. no negative pressure wound therapy (control) at 1 and 2 years. Medicare reimbursement charges for wound care were used to calculate costs. Amputation charges were assessed using diagnosis-related groups. Cost-benefit analysis was based on ulcer-free months and cost-effectiveness on quality-adjusted life-years. Undiscounted costs, benefits, quality-adjusted life-years, undiscounted and discounted incremental net health benefits, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated for unmatched and matched cohorts. There were 150 subjects in the intervention group and 154 controls before matching and 103 subjects in each of the matched cohorts. Time to heal for the intervention cohort was significantly shorter compared to the controls (270 vs. 635 days, p = 1.0 × 10 -7 , matched cohorts). The intervention cohort had higher benefits and quality-adjusted life-year gains compared to the control cohort at years 1 and 2; by year 2, the gains were 68-73% higher. In the unmatched cohorts, the incremental net health benefit was $9,933 per ulcer-free month at year 2 for the intervention; the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was -825,271 per quality-adjusted life-year gained (undiscounted costs and benefits). For the matched cohorts, the incremental net health benefits was only $1,371 per ulcer-free month for the intervention, but the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $366,683 per quality-adjusted life-year gained for year 2 (discounted costs and benefits). In a patient population with severe chronic wounds and serious comorbidities, negative pressure wound therapy resulted in faster healing wounds and was more cost-effective with greater cost-benefits than not using negative pressure wound therapy. Regarding overall cost-effectiveness, the intervention was still expensive, but that is the reality amidst limited treatment options for such serious cases of chronic wounds. © 2016 by the Wound Healing Society.

Recurring Slope Lineae (RSL) Observations Suggest Widespread Occurrence and Complex Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stillman, D. E.; Grimm, R. E.; Wagstaff, K.; Bue, B. D.; Michaels, T. I.

2017-12-01

RSL are described as narrow dark features that incrementally lengthen down steep slopes during warm seasons, fade in cold seasons, and recur annually. HiRISE observations from 5+ Mars years have allowed us to confirm 100 RSL sites and identify more than 600 candidate RSL sites. Detailed analysis of a few RSL sites has been performed using computer assisted analysis. RSL occur in low-albedo (dust-poor) regions with a latitude range of 42.2°N - 53.1°S. They are densely clustered throughout Valles Marineris (VM), in the light-toned layered deposits of Margaritifer and SW Arabia Terrae, Cerberus Fossae, and well-preserved impact craters in Chryse and Acidalia Planitae (CAP). RSL sites are also found at lower densities throughout the low-albedo highland terrains. RSL incrementally lengthen when their slopes are warm, thus the season at which RSL lengthen is dependent on latitude and slope orientation. While RSL occur on all slope orientation there is a large bias to W-facing and equatorial facing slopes. During the RSL activity season, RSL lengthening does not appear to be constant: (1) CAP RSL initially quickly lengthen and slow their lengthening rate by about an order of magnitude as temperatures increase, (2) many VM RSL sites possess RSL that fade at the same time that neighboring RSL on the same slope incrementally lengthen, and (3) some RSL sites in the southern mid-latitudes show at least two pulses of RSL activity - during the southern fall and summer RSL incrementally lengthen, fade, and then start incrementally lengthening again followed by fading as temperatures cool. The correlation of RSL activity to surface temperature, spectrally-derived hydrated salts, and quick fading all point to a wet formation mechanism. However, water sources remain problematic as water budgets suggest a much greater amount of water than could be trapped from the atmosphere. Additionally, some RSL occur in locations where subsurface discharge via an aquifer would be challenging. Thus, our presentation will exhibit the complex behaviors of RSL and compare these behaviors to wet, dry, and hybrid formation mechanisms. Overall, a formation mechanism that is consistent with all the observations remains elusive.

Modeling the Warming Impact of Urban Land Expansion on Hot Weather Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaojuan; Tian, Guangjin; Feng, Jinming; Ma, Bingran; Wang, Jun; Kong, Lingqiang

2018-06-01

The impacts of three periods of urban land expansion during 1990-2010 on near-surface air temperature in summer in Beijing were simulated in this study, and then the interrelation between heat waves and urban warming was assessed. We ran the sensitivity tests using the mesoscaleWeather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a single urban canopy model, as well as high-resolution land cover data. The warming area expanded approximately at the same scale as the urban land expansion. The average regional warming induced by urban expansion increased but the warming speed declined slightly during 2000-2010. The smallest warming occurred at noon and then increased gradually in the afternoon before peaking at around 2000 LST—the time of sunset. In the daytime, urban warming was primarily caused by the decrease in latent heat flux at the urban surface. Urbanization led to more ground heat flux during the day and then more release at night, which resulted in nocturnal warming. Urban warming at night was higher than that in the day, although the nighttime increment in sensible heat flux was smaller. This was because the shallower planetary boundary layer at night reduced the release efficiency of near-surface heat. The simulated results also suggested that heat waves or high temperature weather enhanced urban warming intensity at night. Heat waves caused more heat to be stored in the surface during the day, greater heat released at night, and thus higher nighttime warming. Our results demonstrate a positive feedback effect between urban warming and heat waves in urban areas.

Atmospheric response to Saharan dust deduced from ECMWF reanalysis (ERA) temperature increments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishcha, P.; Alpert, P.; Barkan, J.; Kirchner, I.; Machenhauer, B.

2003-09-01

This study focuses on the atmospheric temperature response to dust deduced from a new source of data the European Reanalysis (ERA) increments. These increments are the systematic errors of global climate models, generated in the reanalysis procedure. The model errors result not only from the lack of desert dust but also from a complex combination of many kinds of model errors. Over the Sahara desert the lack of dust radiative effect is believed to be a predominant model defect which should significantly affect the increments. This dust effect was examined by considering correlation between the increments and remotely sensed dust. Comparisons were made between April temporal variations of the ERA analysis increments and the variations of the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer aerosol index (AI) between 1979 and 1993. The distinctive structure was identified in the distribution of correlation composed of three nested areas with high positive correlation (>0.5), low correlation and high negative correlation (<-0.5). The innermost positive correlation area (PCA) is a large area near the center of the Sahara desert. For some local maxima inside this area the correlation even exceeds 0.8. The outermost negative correlation area (NCA) is not uniform. It consists of some areas over the eastern and western parts of North Africa with a relatively small amount of dust. Inside those areas both positive and negative high correlations exist at pressure levels ranging from 850 to 700 hPa, with the peak values near 775 hPa. Dust-forced heating (cooling) inside the PCA (NCA) is accompanied by changes in the static instability of the atmosphere above the dust layer. The reanalysis data of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) suggest that the PCA (NCA) corresponds mainly to anticyclonic (cyclonic) flow, negative (positive) vorticity and downward (upward) airflow. These findings are associated with the interaction between dust-forced heating/cooling and atmospheric circulation. This paper contributes to a better understanding of dust radiative processes missed in the model.

Dynamics of intrinsic axial flows in unsheared, uniform magnetic fields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, J. C.; Diamond, P. H.; Xu, X. Q.

2016-05-15

A simple model for the generation and amplification of intrinsic axial flow in a linear device, controlled shear decorrelation experiment, is proposed. This model proposes and builds upon a novel dynamical symmetry breaking mechanism, using a simple theory of drift wave turbulence in the presence of axial flow shear. This mechanism does not require complex magnetic field structure, such as shear, and thus is also applicable to intrinsic rotation generation in tokamaks at weak or zero magnetic shear, as well as to linear devices. This mechanism is essentially the self-amplification of the mean axial flow profile, i.e., a modulational instability.more » Hence, the flow development is a form of negative viscosity phenomenon. Unlike conventional mechanisms where the residual stress produces an intrinsic torque, in this dynamical symmetry breaking scheme, the residual stress induces a negative increment to the ambient turbulent viscosity. The axial flow shear is then amplified by this negative viscosity increment. The resulting mean axial flow profile is calculated and discussed by analogy with the problem of turbulent pipe flow. For tokamaks, the negative viscosity is not needed to generate intrinsic rotation. However, toroidal rotation profile gradient is enhanced by the negative increment in turbulent viscosity.« less

Maternal Warm Responsiveness and Negativity Following Traumatic Brain Injury in Young Children

PubMed Central

Fairbanks, Joy M.; Brown, Tanya M.; Cassedy, Amy; Taylor, H. Gerry; Yeates, Keith O.; Wade, Shari L.

2014-01-01

Purpose/Objective To understand how traumatic brain injury (TBI) affects maternal warm responsiveness and negativity over the first 12 months following injury. Method/Design We used a concurrent cohort research design to examine dyadic interactions in young children with a TBI (n = 78) and a comparison group of young children with orthopedic injuries (OI; n = 112) and their families during the initial weeks following injury (i.e., baseline) and at two follow-up periods (approximately 6 and 12 months later). Trained raters coded videotaped interactions during a free play and structured teaching task for maternal warm responsiveness and negativity. Results Mothers in the complicated mild/moderate TBI group, but not those in the severe TBI group, exhibited significantly lower levels of maternal warm responsiveness than mothers in the OI group. However, these differences were observed only at baseline during free play and only at baseline and 6 months postinjury during the structured teaching task, suggesting diminishing adverse effects of complicated mild/moderate TBI on parenting over time postinjury. Analysis failed to reveal group differences in maternal negativity at any of the assessments. Across groups, lower socioeconomic status (SES) was associated with lower levels of warm responsiveness and higher levels of negativity. Conclusions/Implications These findings, though preliminary, indicate possible alterations in mother–child interactions in the months following a TBI. PMID:23978080

Effect of prior warm-up duration on the time limit at peak speed in untrained men.

PubMed

da Cruz, Victor H; Peserico, Cecília S; Machado, Fabiana A

2017-10-01

The peak speed (Vpeak) and its time limit (tlim) are variables used to prescribe training loads and the intervals durations during interval training, respectively. The aim of this study was to test different warm-up durations (5, 10 and 15 minutes), adapted from the protocol proposed by Billat et al.,1 to determine tlim in untrained men. Fifteen untrained men were submitted to the following laboratory evaluations: 1) an incremental running exercise test on a treadmill starting with a speed of 8 km/h, after a warm-up of walking at 6 km/h for three minutes, and increased by 1 km/h between each successive 3-minute stage until volitional exhaustion to determine Vpeak; 2) three rectangular tests, performed in randomized order, with warm-up durations of 5, 10, and 15 minutes at 60% of Vpeak to determine the tlim5, tlim10, and tlim15; after the warm-up the tests were performed at the speed of the individual Vpeak until volitional exhaustion. It was demonstrated that the duration of the warm-up affected the test duration (tlim). Significant differences were observed between tlim5 and tlim15, and between tlim10 and tlim15. However, tlim15 and tlim10 did not differ. Additionally, duration of the warm-up did not influence other variables (HRmax, RPEmax and post lactate concentrations). Therefore, it was concluded that the duration of the warm-up in tlim tests modifies the test duration in untrained men.

Responses of lichen communities to 18 years of natural and experimental warming.

PubMed

Alatalo, Juha M; Jägerbrand, Annika K; Chen, Shengbin; Molau, Ulf

2017-07-01

Climate change is expected to have major impacts on high alpine and arctic ecosystems in the future, but empirical data on the impact of long-term warming on lichen diversity and richness are sparse. This study report the effects of 18 years of ambient and experimental warming on lichens and vascular plant cover in two alpine plant communities, a dry heath with sparse canopy cover (54 %) and a mesic meadow with a more developed (67 %) canopy cover, in sub-arctic Sweden. The effects of long-term passive experimental warming using open top chambers (OTCs) on lichens and total vascular plant cover, and the impact of plant cover on lichen community parameters, were analysed. Between 1993 and 2013, mean annual temperature increased about 2 °C. Both site and experimental warming had a significant effect on cover, species richness, effective number of species evenness of lichens, and total plant canopy cover. Lichen cover increased in the heath under ambient conditions, and remained more stable under experimental warming. The negative effect on species richness and effective number of species was driven by a decrease in lichens under experimental warming in the meadow. Lichen cover, species richness, effective number of species evenness were negatively correlated with plant canopy cover. There was a significant negative impact on one species and a non-significant tendency of lower abundance of the most common species in response to experimental warming. The results from the long-term warming study imply that arctic and high alpine lichen communities are likely to be negatively affected by climate change and an increase in plant canopy cover. Both biotic and abiotic factors are thus important for future impacts of climate change on lichens. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Pliocene Seasonality along the US Atlantic Coastal Plain Inferred from Growth Increment Analysis of Mercenaria carolinensis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelstern, I. Z.; Surge, D. M.

2010-12-01

Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) data from the US Atlantic coastal plain is currently insufficient for a detailed understanding of the climatic shifts that occurred during the period. Previous studies, based on oxygen isotope proxy data from marine shells and bryozoan zooid size analysis, have provided constraints on possible annual-scale SST ranges for the region. However, more data are required to fully understand the forcing mechanisms affecting regional Pliocene climate and evaluate modeled temperature projections. Bivalve sclerochronology (growth increment analysis) is an alternative proxy for SST that can provide annually resolved multi-year time series. The method has been validated in previous studies using modern Arctica, Chione, and Mercenaria. We analyzed Pliocene Mercenaria carolinensis shells using sclerochronologic methods and tested the hypothesis that higher SST ranges are reflected in shells selected from the warmest climate interval (3.5-3.3 Ma, upper Yorktown Formation, Virginia) and lower SST ranges are observable in shells selected from the subsequent cooling interval (2.4-1.8 Ma, Chowan River Formation, North Carolina). These results further establish the validity of growth increment analysis using fossil shells and provide the first large dataset (from the region) of reconstructed annual SST from floating time series during these intervals. These data will enhance our knowledge about a warm climate state that has been identified in the 2007 IPCC report as an analogue for expected global warming. Future work will expand this study to include sampling in Florida to gain detailed information about Pliocene SST along a latitudinal gradient.

Mechanisms of aerobic performance impairment with heat stress and dehydration.

PubMed

Cheuvront, Samuel N; Kenefick, Robert W; Montain, Scott J; Sawka, Michael N

2010-12-01

Environmental heat stress can challenge the limits of human cardiovascular and temperature regulation, body fluid balance, and thus aerobic performance. This minireview proposes that the cardiovascular adjustments accompanying high skin temperatures (T(sk)), alone or in combination with high core body temperatures (T(c)), provide a primary explanation for impaired aerobic exercise performance in warm-hot environments. The independent (T(sk)) and combined (T(sk) + T(c)) effects of hyperthermia reduce maximal oxygen uptake (Vo(2max)), which leads to higher relative exercise intensity and an exponential decline in aerobic performance at any given exercise workload. Greater relative exercise intensity increases cardiovascular strain, which is a prominent mediator of rated perceived exertion. As a consequence, incremental or constant-rate exercise is more difficult to sustain (earlier fatigue) or requires a slowing of self-paced exercise to achieve a similar sensation of effort. It is proposed that high T(sk) and T(c) impair aerobic performance in tandem primarily through elevated cardiovascular strain, rather than a deterioration in central nervous system (CNS) function or skeletal muscle metabolism. Evaporative sweating is the principal means of heat loss in warm-hot environments where sweat losses frequently exceed fluid intakes. When dehydration exceeds 3% of total body water (2% of body mass) then aerobic performance is consistently impaired independent and additive to heat stress. Dehydration augments hyperthermia and plasma volume reductions, which combine to accentuate cardiovascular strain and reduce Vo(2max). Importantly, the negative performance consequences of dehydration worsen as T(sk) increases.

Incremental comprehension of spoken quantifier sentences: Evidence from brain potentials.

PubMed

Freunberger, Dominik; Nieuwland, Mante S

2016-09-01

Do people incrementally incorporate the meaning of quantifier expressions to understand an unfolding sentence? Most previous studies concluded that quantifiers do not immediately influence how a sentence is understood based on the observation that online N400-effects differed from offline plausibility judgments. Those studies, however, used serial visual presentation (SVP), which involves unnatural reading. In the current ERP-experiment, we presented spoken positive and negative quantifier sentences ("Practically all/practically no postmen prefer delivering mail, when the weather is good/bad during the day"). Different from results obtained in a previously reported SVP-study (Nieuwland, 2016) sentence truth-value N400 effects occurred in positive and negative quantifier sentences alike, reflecting fully incremental quantifier comprehension. This suggests that the prosodic information available during spoken language comprehension supports the generation of online predictions for upcoming words and that, at least for quantifier sentences, comprehension of spoken language may proceed more incrementally than comprehension during SVP reading. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Criterion and incremental validity of the emotion regulation questionnaire

PubMed Central

Ioannidis, Christos A.; Siegling, A. B.

2015-01-01

Although research on emotion regulation (ER) is developing, little attention has been paid to the predictive power of ER strategies beyond established constructs. The present study examined the incremental validity of the Emotion Regulation Questionnaire (ERQ; Gross and John, 2003), which measures cognitive reappraisal and expressive suppression, over and above the Big Five personality factors. It also extended the evidence for the measure's criterion validity to yet unexamined criteria. A university student sample (N = 203) completed the ERQ, a measure of the Big Five, and relevant cognitive and emotion-laden criteria. Cognitive reappraisal predicted positive affect beyond personality, as well as experiential flexibility and constructive self-assertion beyond personality and affect. Expressive suppression explained incremental variance in negative affect beyond personality and in experiential flexibility beyond personality and general affect. No incremental effects were found for worry, social anxiety, rumination, reflection, and preventing negative emotions. Implications for the construct validity and utility of the ERQ are discussed. PMID:25814967

Competing influences of greenhouse warming and aerosols on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, William Ka-Ming; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2017-05-01

In this paper, we have compared and contrasted competing influences of greenhouse gases (GHG) warming and aerosol forcing on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall based on CMIP5 historical simulations. Under GHG-only forcing, the land warms much faster than the ocean, magnifying the pre-industrial climatological land-ocean thermal contrast and hemispheric asymmetry, i.e., warmer northern than southern hemisphere. A steady increasing warm-ocean-warmer-land (WOWL) trend has been in effect since the 1950's substantially increasing moisture transport from adjacent oceans, and enhancing rainfall over the Asian monsoon regions. However, under GHG warming, increased atmospheric stability due to strong reduction in mid-tropospheric and near surface relative humidity coupled to an expanding subsidence areas, associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (DTS, Lau and Kim, 2015b) strongly suppress monsoon convection and rainfall over subtropical and extratropical land, leading to a weakening of the Asian monsoon meridional circulation. Increased anthropogenic aerosol emission strongly masks WOWL, by over 60% over the northern hemisphere, negating to a large extent the rainfall increase due to GHG warming, and leading to a further weakening of the monsoon circulation, through increasing atmospheric stability, most likely associated with aerosol solar dimming and semi-direct effects. Overall, we find that GHG exerts stronger positive rainfall sensitivity, but less negative circulation sensitivity in SASM compared to EASM. In contrast, aerosols exert stronger negative impacts on rainfall, but less negative impacts on circulation in EASM compared to SASM.

Warming reduces the cover and diversity of biocrust-forming mosses and lichens, and increases the physiological stress of soil microbial communities in a semi-arid Pinus halepensis plantation

PubMed Central

Maestre, Fernando T.; Escolar, Cristina; Bardgett, Richard D.; Dungait, Jennifer A. J.; Gozalo, Beatriz; Ochoa, Victoria

2015-01-01

Soil communities dominated by lichens and mosses (biocrusts) play key roles in maintaining ecosystem structure and functioning in drylands worldwide. However, few studies have explicitly evaluated how climate change-induced impacts on biocrusts affect associated soil microbial communities. We report results from a field experiment conducted in a semiarid Pinus halepensis plantation, where we setup an experiment with two factors: cover of biocrusts (low [<15%] versus high [>50%]), and warming (control versus a ∼2°C temperature increase). Warming reduced the richness and cover (∼45%) of high biocrust cover areas 53 months after the onset of the experiment. This treatment did not change the ratios between the major microbial groups, as measured by phospholipid fatty acid analysis. Warming increased the physiological stress of the Gram negative bacterial community, as indicated by the cy17:0/16:1ω7 ratio. This response was modulated by the initial biocrust cover, as the increase in this ratio with warming was higher in areas with low cover. Our findings suggest that biocrusts can slow down the negative effects of warming on the physiological status of the Gram negative bacterial community. However, as warming will likely reduce the cover and diversity of biocrusts, these positive effects will be reduced under climate change. PMID:26379642

Cost-effectiveness of forced air warming during sedation in the cardiac catheterisation laboratory.

PubMed

Conway, Aaron; Duff, Jed; Sutherland, Joanna

2018-05-13

To determine the cost-effectiveness of forced air warming during sedation in a cardiac catheterisation laboratory. Forced air warming improves thermal comfort in comparison with standard care. It is not known whether the extra costs required for forced air warming are good value. Cost-effectiveness analysis alongside a randomised controlled trial conducted in 2016-2017. A cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken using Monte Carlo simulations from input distributions to estimate costs and effects associated with using forced air warming to reduce risk of thermal discomfort for patients receiving sedation in a cardiac catheterisation laboratory. A range of willingness to pay threshold values were tested with results plotted on a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. Costs were calculated in Australian currency ($AUD). Estimated total costs were $5.21 (SD 3.26) higher per patient for forced air warming in comparison to standard care. Estimated probability of success (rating of thermal comfort) was 0.16 (0.06) higher for forced air warming. Forced air warming becomes more likely to result in a net benefit than standard care at a willingness to pay threshold of $34. Forced air warming could be considered cost-effective for procedures performed with sedation in a cardiac catheterisation laboratory if the extra cost of an incremental gain in thermal comfort is less than the decision maker's willingness to pay for it. Therefore, those responsible for decision-making regarding use of forced air warming in the cardiac catheterisation laboratory can use results of our model to decide if it represents good value for their organisation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Effects of temperature and drought manipulations on seedlings of Scots pine provenances.

PubMed

Taeger, S; Sparks, T H; Menzel, A

2015-03-01

Rising temperatures and more frequent and severe climatic extremes as a consequence of climate change are expected to affect growth and distribution of tree species that are adapted to current local conditions. Species distribution models predict a considerable loss of habitats for Pinus sylvestris. These models do not consider possible intraspecific differences in response to drought and warming that could buffer those impacts. We tested 10 European provenances of P. sylvestris, from the southwestern to the central European part of the species distribution, for their response to warming and to drought using a factorial design. In this common-garden experiment the air surrounding plants was heated directly to prevent excessive soil heating, and drought manipulation, using a rain-out shelter, permitted almost natural radiation, including high light stress. Plant responses were assessed as changes in phenology, growth increment and biomass allocation. Seedlings of P. sylvestris revealed a plastic response to drought by increased taproot length and root-shoot ratios. Strongest phenotypic plasticity of root growth was found for southwestern provenances, indicating a specific drought adaptation at the cost of overall low growth of aboveground structures even under non-drought conditions. Warming had a minor effect on growth but advanced phenological development and had a contrasting effect on bud biomass and diameter increment, depending on water availability. The intraspecific variation of P. sylvestris provenances could buffer climate change impacts, although additional factors such as the adaptation to other climatic extremes have to be considered before assisted migration could become a management option. © 2014 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Emergence of new hydrologic regimes of surface water resources in the conterminous United States under future warming

DOE PAGES

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Voisin, Nathalie; ...

2016-10-25

Emergence of significant changes in surface water PDF is detected across CONUS. Such emergence can be derived using global temperature increments at the national scale independent of emission scenarios but the relationship does not hold at sub-basin scale. The emergence of significant changes are due to changes in interannual variability rather than seasonal mean.

Atmospheric response to Saharan dust deduced from ECMWF reanalysis increments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishcha, P.; Alpert, P.; Barkan, J.; Kirchner, I.; Machenhauer, B.

2003-04-01

This study focuses on the atmospheric temperature response to dust deduced from a new source of data - the European Reanalysis (ERA) increments. These increments are the systematic errors of global climate models, generated in reanalysis procedure. The model errors result not only from the lack of desert dust but also from a complex combination of many kinds of model errors. Over the Sahara desert the dust radiative effect is believed to be a predominant model defect which should significantly affect the increments. This dust effect was examined by considering correlation between the increments and remotely-sensed dust. Comparisons were made between April temporal variations of the ERA analysis increments and the variations of the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer aerosol index (AI) between 1979 and 1993. The distinctive structure was identified in the distribution of correlation composed of three nested areas with high positive correlation (> 0.5), low correlation, and high negative correlation (<-0.5). The innermost positive correlation area (PCA) is a large area near the center of the Sahara desert. For some local maxima inside this area the correlation even exceeds 0.8. The outermost negative correlation area (NCA) is not uniform. It consists of some areas over the eastern and western parts of North Africa with a relatively small amount of dust. Inside those areas both positive and negative high correlations exist at pressure levels ranging from 850 to 700 hPa, with the peak values near 775 hPa. Dust-forced heating (cooling) inside the PCA (NCA) is accompanied by changes in the static stability of the atmosphere above the dust layer. The reanalysis data of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast(ECMWF) suggests that the PCA (NCA) corresponds mainly to anticyclonic (cyclonic) flow, negative (positive) vorticity, and downward (upward) airflow. These facts indicate an interaction between dust-forced heating /cooling and atmospheric circulation. The April correlation results are supported by the analysis of vertical distribution of dust concentration, derived from the 24-hour dust prediction system at Tel Aviv University (website: http://earth.nasa.proj.ac.il/dust/current/). For other months the analysis is more complicated because of the essential increasing of humidity along with the northward progress of the ITCZ and the significant impact on the increments.

Different responses of ecosystem carbon exchange to warming in three types of alpine grassland on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Hu, Guozheng; Wan, Yunfan; Li, Yue; Danjiu, Luobu; Gao, Qingzhu

2018-02-01

Climate is a driver of terrestrial ecosystem carbon exchange, which is an important product of ecosystem function. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has recently been subjected to a marked increase in temperature as a consequence of global warming. To explore the effects of warming on carbon exchange in grassland ecosystems, we conducted a whole-year warming experiment between 2012 and 2014 using open-top chambers placed in an alpine meadow, an alpine steppe, and a cultivated grassland on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We measured the gross primary productivity, net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE), ecosystem respiration, and soil respiration using a chamber-based method during the growing season. The results show that after 3 years of warming, there was significant stimulation of carbon assimilation and emission in the alpine meadow, but both these processes declined in the alpine steppe and the cultivated grassland. Under warming conditions, the soil water content was more important in stimulating ecosystem carbon exchange in the meadow and cultivated grassland than was soil temperature. In the steppe, the soil temperature was negatively correlated with ecosystem carbon exchange. We found that the ambient soil water content was significantly correlated with the magnitude of warming-induced change in NEE. Under high soil moisture condition, warming has a significant positive effect on NEE, while it has a negative effect under low soil moisture condition. Our results highlight that the NEE in steppe and cultivated grassland have negative responses to warming; after reclamation, the natural meadow would subject to loose more C in warmer condition. Therefore, under future warmer condition, the overextension of cultivated grassland should be avoided and scientific planning of cultivated grassland should be achieved.

Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

2016-05-01

A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

Features of Scots pine radial growth in conditions of provenance trial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuzmin, S.

2012-12-01

Provenance trial of Scots pine in Boguchany forestry of Krasnoyarsk krai is conducted on two different soils - dark-grey loam forest soil and sod-podzol sandy soil. Complex of negative factors for plant growth and development appears in dry conditions of sandy soil. It could results in decrease of resistance to diseases. Sandy soils in different climatic zones have such common traits as low absorbing capacity, poorness of elemental nutrition, low microbiological activity and moisture capacity, very high water permeability. But Scots pine trees growing in such conditions could have certain advantages and perspectives of use. In the scope of climate change (global warming) the study of Scots pine growth on sandy soil become urgent because of more frequent appearance of dry seasons. Purpose of the work is revelation of radial growth features of Scots pine with different origin in dry conditions of sandy soil and assessment of external factors influence. The main feature of radial growth of majority of studied pine provenances in conditions of sandy soil is presence of significant variation of increment with distinct decline in 25-years old with loss of tree rings in a number of cases. The reason of it is complex of factors: deficit of June precipitation and next following outbreak of fungal disease. Found «frost rings» for all trees of studied clymatypes in 1992 are the consequence of temperature decline from May 21 to June 2 - from 23 C degrees up to 2 C. Perspective climatypes with biggest radial increments and least sensitivity to fungal disease were revealed.

Soil warming effect on net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide during the transition from winter carbon source to spring carbon sink in a temperate urban lawn.

PubMed

Zhou, Xiaoping; Wang, Xiaoke; Tong, Lei; Zhang, Hongxing; Lu, Fei; Zheng, Feixiang; Hou, Peiqiang; Song, Wenzhi; Ouyang, Zhiyun

2012-01-01

The significant warming in urban environment caused by the combined effects of global warming and heat island has stimulated widely development of urban vegetations. However, it is less known of the climate feedback of urban lawn in warmed environment. Soil warming effect on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide during the transition period from winter to spring was investigated in a temperate urban lawn in Beijing, China. The NEE (negative for uptake) under soil warming treatment (temperature was about 5 degrees C higher than the ambient treatment as a control) was -0.71 micromol/(m2 x sec), the ecosytem was a CO2 sink under soil warming treatment, the lawn ecosystem under the control was a CO2 source (0.13 micromol/(m2 x sec)), indicating that the lawn ecosystem would provide a negative feedback to global warming. There was no significant effect of soil warming on nocturnal NEE (i.e., ecosystem respiration), although the soil temperature sensitivity (Q10) of ecosystem respiration under soil warming treatment was 3.86, much lower than that in the control (7.03). The CO2 uptake was significantly increased by soil warming treatment that was attributed to about 100% increase of alpha (apparent quantum yield) and Amax (maximum rate of photosynthesis). Our results indicated that the response of photosynthesis in urban lawn is much more sensitive to global warming than respiration in the transition period.

Effect of inspiratory muscle warm-up on submaximal rowing performance.

PubMed

Arend, Mati; Mäestu, Jarek; Kivastik, Jana; Rämson, Raul; Jürimäe, Jaak

2015-01-01

Performing inspiratory muscle warm-up might increase exercise performance. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of inspiratory muscle warm-up to submaximal rowing performance and to find if there is an effect on lactic acid accumulation and breathing parameters. Ten competitive male rowers aged between 19 and 27 years (age, 23.1 ± 3.8 years; height, 188.1 ± 6.3 cm; body mass, 85.6 ± 6.6 kg) were tested 3 times. During the first visit, maximal inspiratory pressure (MIP) assessment and the incremental rowing test were performed to measure maximal oxygen consumption and maximal aerobic power (Pamax). A submaximal intensity (90% Pamax) rowing test was performed twice with the standard rowing warm-up as test 1 and with the standard rowing warm-up and specific inspiratory muscle warm-up as test 2. During the 2 experimental tests, distance, duration, heart rate, breathing frequency, ventilation, peak oxygen consumption, and blood lactate concentration were measured. The only value that showed a significant difference between the test 1 and test 2 was breathing frequency (52.2 ± 6.8 vs. 53.1 ± 6.8, respectively). Heart rate and ventilation showed a tendency to decrease and increase, respectively, after the inspiratory muscle warm-up (p < 0.1). Despite some changes in respiratory parameters, the use of 40% MIP intensity warm-up is not suggested if the mean intensity of the competition is at submaximal level (at approximately 90% maximal oxygen consumption). In conclusion, the warm-up protocol of the respiratory muscles used in this study does not have a significant influence on submaximal endurance performance in highly trained male rowers.

Biological responses of two marine organisms of ecological relevance to on-going ocean acidification and global warming.

PubMed

Gomiero, A; Bellerby, R G J; Manca Zeichen, M; Babbini, L; Viarengo, A

2018-05-01

Recently, there has been a growing concern that climate change may rapidly and extensively alter global ecosystems with unknown consequences for terrestrial and aquatic life. While considerable emphasis has been placed on terrestrial ecology consequences, aquatic environments have received relatively little attention. Limited knowledge is available on the biological effects of increments of seawater temperature and pH decrements on key ecological species, i.e., primary producers and/or organisms representative of the basis of the trophic web. In the present study, we addressed the biological effects of global warming and ocean acidification on two model organisms, the microbenthic marine ciliate Euplotes crassus and the green alga Dunaliella tertiocleta using a suite of high level ecological endpoint tests and sub-lethal stress measures. Organisms were exposed to combinations of pH and temperature (TR1: 7.9 [pH], 25.5 °C and TR2: 7.8 [pH], 27,0 °C) simulating two possible environmental scenarios predicted to occur in the habitats of the selected species before the end of this century. The outcomes of the present study showed that the tested scenarios did not induce a significant increment of mortality on protozoa. Under the most severe exposure conditions, sub-lethal stress indices show that pH homeostatic mechanisms have energetic costs that divert energy from essential cellular processes and functions. The marine protozoan exhibited significant impairment of the lysosomal compartment and early signs of oxidative stress under these conditions. Similarly, significant impairment of photosynthetic efficiency and an increment in lipid peroxidation were observed in the autotroph model organism held under the most extreme exposure condition tested. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Relationship of Parental Warm Responsiveness and Negativity to Emerging Behavior Problems following Traumatic Brain Injury in Young Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wade, Shari L.; Cassedy, Amy; Walz, Nicolay C.; Taylor, H. Gerry; Stancin, Terry; Yeates, Keith Owen

2011-01-01

Parenting behaviors play a critical role in the child's behavioral development, particularly for children with neurological deficits. This study examined the relationship of parental warm responsiveness and negativity to changes in behavior following traumatic brain injury (TBI) in young children relative to an age-matched cohort of children with…

Comparison between response dynamics in transition economies and developed economies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tenenbaum, Joel; Horvatić, Davor; Bajić, Slavica Cosović; Pehlivanović, Bećo; Podobnik, Boris; Stanley, H. Eugene

2010-10-01

In developed economies, the sign of the price increment influences the volatility in an asymmetric fashion—negative increments tend to result in larger volatility (increments with larger magnitudes), while positive increments result in smaller volatility. We explore whether this asymmetry extends from developed economies to European transition economies and, if so, how such asymmetry changes over time as these transition economies develop and mature. We analyze eleven European transition economies and compare the results with those obtained by analyzing U.S. market indices. Specifically, we calculate parameters that quantify both the volatility asymmetry and the strength of its dependence on prior increments. We find that, like their developed economy counterparts, almost all transition economy indices exhibit a significant volatility asymmetry, and the parameter γ characterizing asymmetry fluctuates more over time for transition economies. We also investigate how the association between volatility and volatility asymmetry varies by type of market. We test the hypothesis of a negative correlation between volatility and volatility asymmetry. We find that, for developed economies, γ experiences local minima during (i) “Black Monday” on October 19, 1987, (ii) the dot-com bubble crash in 2002, and (iii) the 2007-2009 global crisis while for transition economies, γ experiences local maxima during times of economic crisis.

Constraining the Carbon Cycle through Tree Rings: A Case Study of the Valles Caldera, NM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, M. R.; Babst, F.; Moore, D. J.; Trouet, V.

2013-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems take up approximately 120 Gt of carbon as Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) from the atmosphere annually, but it is challenging to track the allocation of that carbon throughout the biosphere. Here, we combine eddy covariance measurements of net carbon uptake with above ground biomass increments derived from tree-ring data to better understand the interannual variability associated with biomass accumulation. In the summer of 2012, we collected tree cores near two eddy covariance towers in the Jemez Mountains of northern New Mexico. One tower was located in an upper elevation mixed-conifer forest, and the other in a lower elevation Pinus ponderosa forest. Our analysis shows that the annual above ground biomass increment accounted for approximately 40% of the GPP at the lower elevation Pinus ponderosa site and approximately 70% of GPP at the upper elevation mixed-conifer site. We have also used the above ground biomass increment to constrain the Simple Photosynthesis EvapoTranspiration (SiPNET) model to gain a better understanding of allocation within the forest. Tree growth at both elevations was negatively influenced by spring (March-June) temperature and positively by cool season (October-April) precipitation and warm (May-September) and cool season PDSI. We also analyzed the six most extreme temperature and moisture (PDSI) years of the record to determine the response of productivity to climatic forcing. During the driest years, biomass production was reduced by 40% at the upper elevation site and 43% at the lower elevation site. During the hottest years of the record the biomass decreased 28% at the upper site and 45% at the lower site. Our results indicate that tree rings can be used to effectively constrain the above ground biomass component of a forest's carbon budget and to estimate allocation of carbon to woody biomass as a function of climate. However, many variables remain unknown. The combined results of the extreme year analyses and the derived biomass increments illustrate that the forests at the Valles Caldera are considerably less productive during years of extreme drought and warmer than average temperatures. With future projections calling for consecutive years of extreme conditions in the American Southwest, this could have a substantial effect on the overall productivity of these forests.

Seasonal and elevational contrasts in temperature trends in Central Chile between 1979 and 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burger, F.; Brock, B.; Montecinos, A.

2018-03-01

We analyze trends in temperature from 18 temperature stations and one upper air sounding site at 30°-35° S in central Chile between 1979-2015, to explore geographical and season temperature trends and their controls, using regional ocean-atmosphere indices. Significant warming trends are widespread at inland stations, while trends are non-significant or negative at coastal sites, as found in previous studies. However, ubiquitous warming across the region in the past 8 years, suggests the recent period of coastal cooling has ended. Significant warming trends are largely restricted to austral spring, summer and autumn seasons, with very few significant positive or negative trends in winter identified. Autumn warming is notably strong in the Andes, which, together with significant warming in spring, could help to explain the negative mass balance of snow and glaciers in the region. A strong Pacific maritime influence on regional temperature trends is inferred through correlation with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index and coastal sea surface temperature, but the strength of this influence rapidly diminishes inland, and the majority of valley, and all Andes, sites are independent of the IPO index. Instead, valley and Andes sites, and mid-troposphere temperature in the coastal radiosonde profile, show correlation with the autumn Antarctic Oscillation which, in its current positive phase, promotes subsidence and warming at the latitude of central Chile.

Inter-Relationship Between Subtropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature, Arctic Sea Ice Concentration, and the North Atlantic Oscillation in Recent Summers and Winters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Cullather, Richard I.; Nowicki, Sophie M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2017-01-01

The inter-relationship between subtropical western-central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are investigated for the last 37 summers and winters (1980-2016). Lag-correlation of the STWCPSST×(-1) in spring with the NAO phase and SICBS in summer increases over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.4-0.5 with significance at 5 percent, while winter has strong correlations in approximately 1985-2005. Observational analysis and the atmospheric general circulation model experiments both suggest that STWCPSST warming acts to increase the Arctic geopotential height and temperature in the following season. This atmospheric response extends to Greenland, providing favorable conditions for developing the negative phase of the NAO. SIC and surface albedo tend to decrease over the Beaufort Sea in summer, linked to the positive surface net shortwave flux. Energy balance considering radiative and turbulent fluxes reveal that available energy that can heat surface is larger over the Arctic and Greenland and smaller over the south of Greenland, in response to the STWCPSST warming in spring. XXXX Arctic & Atlantic: Positive upper-level height/T anomaly over the Arctic and Greenland, and a negative anomaly over the central-eastern Atlantic, resembling the (-) phase of the NAO. Pacific: The negative height/T anomaly over the mid-latitudes, along with the positive anomaly over the STWCP, where 1degC warming above climatology is prescribed. Discussion: It is likely that the Arctic gets warm and the NAO is in the negative phase in response to the STWCP warming. But, there are other factors (e.g., internal variability) that contribute to determination of the NAO phase: not always the negative phase of the NAO in the event of STWCP warming (e.g.: recent winters and near neutral NAO in 2017 summer).

Influence of drying time and temperature on bond strength of contemporary adhesives to dentine.

PubMed

Garcia, Fernanda C P; Almeida, Júlio C F; Osorio, Raquel; Carvalho, Ricardo M; Toledano, Manuel

2009-04-01

To evaluate the bond strength (microTBS) of self-etching adhesives in different solvent evaporation conditions. Flat dentine surfaces from extracted human third molars were bonded with: (1) 2 two-steps self-etching adhesives (Clearfil SE Bond-CSEB); (Protect Bond-PB) and (2) 2 one-step self-etch systems (Adper Prompt L Pop-ADPLP); (Xeno III-XIII). Bonded dentine surfaces were air-dried for 5s, 20s, 30s or 40s at either 21 degrees C or 38 degrees C. Composite build-ups were constructed incrementally. After storage in water for 24h at 37 degrees C, the specimens were prepared for microtensile bond strength testing. Data were analyzed by two-way ANOVA and Student-Newman-Keuls at alpha=0.05. CSEB and PB performed better at warm temperature with only 20s of air-blowing. The bond strength increased when XIII was performed at warm temperature at 40s air-blowing. Extended air-blowing not affect the performance of ADPLP, except at 30s air-blowing time at warm temperature. The use of a warm air-dry stream seems to be a clinical tool to improve the bond strength to self-etching adhesives.

An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Jian; Liu, Qinyu; Wang, Chuanyang

2018-03-01

Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.

Warm-up Optimizes Postural Control but Requires Some Minutes of Recovery.

PubMed

Paillard, Thierry; Kadri, Mohamed Abdelhafid; Nouar, Merbouha Boulahbel; Noé, Frederic

2018-05-02

Paillard, T, Kadri, MA, Nouar, MB, and Noé, F. Warm-up optimizes postural control but requires some minutes of recovery. J Strength Cond Res XX(X): 000-000, 2018-The aim was to compare monopedal postural control between the dominant leg (D-Leg) and the nondominant leg (ND-Leg) in pre- and post-warm-up conditions. Thirty healthy male sports science students were evaluated before and after a warm-up exercise (12 minutes of pedaling with an incremental effort on a cycle ergometer with a controlled workload). Monopodal postural control was assessed for the D- and ND-Legs before and immediately, 2, 5, 10, and 15 minutes after the warm-up exercise, using a force platform and calculating the displacement velocity of the center of foot pressure on the mediolateral (COPML velocity) and anteroposterior (COPAP velocity) axes. No significant difference was observed between the D-Leg and ND-Leg for both COPML and COPAP velocity in all the periods. In comparison with pre-warm-up, COPML decreased after 15-minute and 10-minute recovery periods for the D-Leg and the ND-Leg, respectively (p < 0.05), whereas COPAP decreased after 10-minute and 15-minute recovery periods (p < 0.001; p < 0.01, respectively) for the D-Leg, and after a 10-minute recovery period for the ND-Leg (p < 0.001). The warm-up optimized monopedal postural control but did not make it possible to distinguish a difference between the D-Leg and the ND-Leg. Some minutes of recovery are required between the end of the whole-body warm-up exercise and the beginning of the postural test to optimize postural control. The optimal duration of recovery turns out to be about 10-15 minutes.

Heart-Rate Recovery After Warm-up in Swimming: A Useful Predictor of Training Heart-Rate Response?

PubMed

Ganzevles, Sander P M; de Haan, Arnold; Beek, Peter J; Daanen, Hein A M; Truijens, Martin J

2017-07-01

For training to be optimal, daily training load has to be adapted to the momentary status of the individual athlete, which is often difficult to establish. Therefore, the current study investigated the predictive value of heart-rate recovery (HRR) during a standardized warm-up for training load. Training load was quantified by the variation in heart rate during standardized training in competitive swimmers. Eight female and 5 male Dutch national-level swimmers participated in the study. They all performed 3 sessions consisting of a 300-m warm-up test and a 10 × 100-m training protocol. Both protocols were swum in front crawl at individually standardized velocities derived from an incremental step test. Velocity was related to 75% and 85% heart-rate reserve (% HR res ) for the warm-up and training, respectively. Relative HRR during the first 60 s after the warm-up (HR Rw-up ) and differences between the actual and intended heart rate for the warm-up and the training (ΔHR w-up and ΔHR tr ) were determined. No significant relationship between HRR w-up and ΔHR tr was found (F 1,37 = 2.96, P = .09, R 2 = .07, SEE = 4.65). There was considerable daily variation in ΔHR tr at a given swimming velocity (73-93% HR res ). ΔHR w-up and ΔHR tr were clearly related (F 1,37 = 74.31, P < .001, R 2 = .67, SEE = 2.78). HRR after a standardized warm-up does not predict heart rate during a directly subsequent and standardized training session. Instead, heart rate during the warm-up protocol seems a promising alternative for coaches to make daily individual-specific adjustments to training programs.

Patterns of total ecosystem carbon storage with changes in soil temperature in boreal black spruce forests

Treesearch

E.S. Kane; J.G. Vogel

2009-01-01

To understand how carbon (C) pools in boreal ecosystems may change with warming, we measured above- and belowground C pools and C increment along a soil temperature gradient across 16 mature upland black spruce (Picea mariana Mill. [B•S.P]) forests in interior Alaska. Total spruce C stocks (stand and root C) increased from 1.3 to 8.5 kg C m

Anticipated Guilt for Not Helping and Anticipated Warm Glow for Helping Are Differently Impacted by Personal Responsibility to Help

PubMed Central

Erlandsson, Arvid; Jungstrand, Amanda Å.; Västfjäll, Daniel

2016-01-01

One important motivation for people behaving prosocially is that they want to avoid negative and obtain positive emotions. In the prosocial behavior literature however, the motivations to avoid negative emotions (e.g., guilt) and to approach positive emotions (e.g., warm glow) are rarely separated, and sometimes even aggregated into a single mood-management construct. The aim of this study was to investigate whether anticipated guilt if not helping and anticipated warm glow if helping are influenced similarly or differently when varying situational factors related to personal responsibility to help. Helping scenarios were created and pilot tests established that each helping scenario could be formulated both in a high-responsibility version and in a low-responsibility version. In Study 1 participants read high-responsibility and low-responsibility helping scenarios, and rated either their anticipated guilt if not helping or their anticipated warm glow if helping (i.e., separate evaluation). Study 2 was similar but here participants rated both their anticipated guilt if not helping and their anticipated warm glow if helping (i.e., joint evaluation). Anticipated guilt was clearly higher in the high-responsibility versions, but anticipated warm glow was unaffected (in Studies 1a and 1b), or even higher in the low-responsibility versions (Study 2). In Studies 3 (where anticipated guilt and warm glow were evaluated separately) and 4 (where they were evaluated jointly), personal responsibility to help was manipulated within-subjects. Anticipated guilt was again constantly higher in the high-responsibility versions but for many types of responsibility-manipulations, anticipated warm glow was higher in the low-responsibility versions. The results suggest that we anticipate guilt if not fulfilling our responsibility but that we anticipate warm glow primarily when doing over and beyond our responsibility. We argue that future studies investigating motivations for helping should measure both anticipated negative consequences for oneself if not helping, and anticipated positive consequences for oneself if helping. PMID:27733840

Anticipated Guilt for Not Helping and Anticipated Warm Glow for Helping Are Differently Impacted by Personal Responsibility to Help.

PubMed

Erlandsson, Arvid; Jungstrand, Amanda Å; Västfjäll, Daniel

2016-01-01

One important motivation for people behaving prosocially is that they want to avoid negative and obtain positive emotions. In the prosocial behavior literature however, the motivations to avoid negative emotions (e.g., guilt) and to approach positive emotions (e.g., warm glow) are rarely separated, and sometimes even aggregated into a single mood-management construct. The aim of this study was to investigate whether anticipated guilt if not helping and anticipated warm glow if helping are influenced similarly or differently when varying situational factors related to personal responsibility to help. Helping scenarios were created and pilot tests established that each helping scenario could be formulated both in a high-responsibility version and in a low-responsibility version. In Study 1 participants read high-responsibility and low-responsibility helping scenarios, and rated either their anticipated guilt if not helping or their anticipated warm glow if helping (i.e., separate evaluation). Study 2 was similar but here participants rated both their anticipated guilt if not helping and their anticipated warm glow if helping (i.e., joint evaluation). Anticipated guilt was clearly higher in the high-responsibility versions, but anticipated warm glow was unaffected (in Studies 1a and 1b), or even higher in the low-responsibility versions (Study 2). In Studies 3 (where anticipated guilt and warm glow were evaluated separately) and 4 (where they were evaluated jointly), personal responsibility to help was manipulated within-subjects. Anticipated guilt was again constantly higher in the high-responsibility versions but for many types of responsibility-manipulations, anticipated warm glow was higher in the low-responsibility versions. The results suggest that we anticipate guilt if not fulfilling our responsibility but that we anticipate warm glow primarily when doing over and beyond our responsibility. We argue that future studies investigating motivations for helping should measure both anticipated negative consequences for oneself if not helping, and anticipated positive consequences for oneself if helping.

Thermal responses and survival after heat exposure are modulated by maintained differences in body temperature in mice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fishman, Rachelle H. B.

1988-03-01

When individual mice were examined, it was found that the colonic body temperature T col of each individual within a genetically heterogeneous population tended to remain either above (“warm”) or below (“cool”) the population mean. T col of warm, but not cool, mice showed circadian variation. When exposed to a T a of 43° C, the T col of cool mice increased by as musch as 2.4° C more than that of warm mice for a given 15 min increment of heating at 43°C. Survival of mice after acute lethal heat load (LD75, -45°C) was significantly inversely correlated with T col. Small persistent differences in body temperature of individuals may indicate differing thermal adaptedness.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

PubMed

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-07

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

PubMed

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-20

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

PubMed Central

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-01-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming. PMID:28317914

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Drought-induced stomatal closure probably cannot explain divergent white spruce growth in the Brooks Range, Alaska, USA.

PubMed

Brownlee, Annalis H; Sullivan, Patrick F; Csank, Adam Z; Sveinbjörnsson, Bjartmar; Ellison, Sarah B Z

2016-01-01

Increment cores from the boreal forest have long been used to reconstruct past climates. However, in recent years, numerous studies have revealed a deterioration of the correlation between temperature and tree growth that is commonly referred to as divergence. In the Brooks Range of northern Alaska, USA, studies of white spruce (Picea glauca) revealed that trees in the west generally showed positive growth trends, while trees in the central and eastern Brooks Range showed mixed and negative trends during late 20th century warming. The growing season climate of the eastern Brooks Range is thought to be drier than the west. On this basis, divergent tree growth in the eastern Brooks Range has been attributed to drought stress. To investigate the hypothesis that drought-induced stomatal closure can explain divergence in the Brooks Range, we synthesized all of the Brooks Range white spruce data available in the International Tree Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) and collected increment cores from our primary sites in each of four watersheds along a west-to-east gradient near the Arctic treeline. For cores from our sites, we measured ring widths and calculated carbon isotope discrimination (δ13C), intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), and needle intercellular CO2 concentration (C(i)) from δ13C in tree-ring alpha-cellulose. We hypothesized that trees exhibiting divergence would show a corresponding decline in δ13C, a decline in C(i), and a strong increase in iWUE. Consistent with the ITRDB data, trees at our western and central sites generally showed an increase in the strength of the temperature-growth correlation during late 20th century warming, while trees at our eastern site showed strong divergence. Divergent tree growth was not, however, associated with declining δ13C. Meanwhile, estimates of C(i) showed a strong increase at all of our study sites, indicating that more substrate was available for photosynthesis in the early 21st than in the early 20th century. Our results, which are corroborated by measurements of xylem sap flux density, needle gas exchange, and measurements of growth and δ13C along moisture gradients within each watershed, suggest that drought-induced stomatal closure is probably not the cause of 20th century divergence in the Brooks Range.

Shifting grassland plant community structure drives positive interactive effects of warming and diversity on aboveground net primary productivity.

PubMed

Cowles, Jane M; Wragg, Peter D; Wright, Alexandra J; Powers, Jennifer S; Tilman, David

2016-02-01

Ecosystems worldwide are increasingly impacted by multiple drivers of environmental change, including climate warming and loss of biodiversity. We show, using a long-term factorial experiment, that plant diversity loss alters the effects of warming on productivity. Aboveground primary productivity was increased by both high plant diversity and warming, and, in concert, warming (≈1.5 °C average above and belowground warming over the growing season) and diversity caused a greater than additive increase in aboveground productivity. The aboveground warming effects increased over time, particularly at higher levels of diversity, perhaps because of warming-induced increases in legume and C4 bunch grass abundances, and facilitative feedbacks of these species on productivity. Moreover, higher plant diversity was associated with the amelioration of warming-induced environmental conditions. This led to cooler temperatures, decreased vapor pressure deficit, and increased surface soil moisture in higher diversity communities. Root biomass (0-30 cm) was likewise consistently greater at higher plant diversity and was greater with warming in monocultures and at intermediate diversity, but at high diversity warming had no detectable effect. This may be because warming increased the abundance of legumes, which have lower root : shoot ratios than the other types of plants. In addition, legumes increase soil nitrogen (N) supply, which could make N less limiting to other species and potentially decrease their investment in roots. The negative warming × diversity interaction on root mass led to an overall negative interactive effect of these two global change factors on the sum of above and belowground biomass, and thus likely on total plant carbon stores. In total, plant diversity increased the effect of warming on aboveground net productivity and moderated the effect on root mass. These divergent effects suggest that warming and changes in plant diversity are likely to have both interactive and divergent impacts on various aspects of ecosystem functioning. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dynamical Downscaling of Climate Change over the Hawaiian Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Zhang, C.; Hamilton, K. P.; Lauer, A.

2015-12-01

The pseudo-global-warming (PGW) method was applied to the Hawaii Regional Climate Model (HRCM) to dynamically downscale the projected climate in the late 21st century over the Hawaiian Islands. The initial and boundary conditions were adopted from MERRA reanalysis and NOAA SST data for the present-day simulations. The global warming increments constructed from the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble mean were added to the reanalysis and SST data to perform the future climate simulations. We found that the Hawaiian Islands are vulnerable to global warming effects and the changes are diverse due to the varied topography. The windward side will have more clouds and receive more rainfall. The increase of the moisture in the boundary layer makes the major contribution. On the contrary, the leeward side will have less clouds and rainfall. The clouds and rain can slightly slow down the warming trend over the windward side. The temperature increases almost linearly with the terrain height. Cloud base and top heights will slightly decline in response to the slightly lower trade wind inversion base height, while the trade wind occurrence frequency will increase by about 8% in the future. More extreme rainfall events will occur in the warming climate over the Hawaiian Islands. And the snow cover on the top of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa will nearly disappear in the future winter.

Use of high-frequency peak in spectral analysis of heart rate increment to improve screening of obstructive sleep apnoea.

PubMed

Poupard, Laurent; Court-Fortune, Isabelle; Pichot, Vincent; Chouchou, Florian; Barthélémy, Jean-Claude; Roche, Frédéric

2011-12-01

Several studies have correlated the ratio of the very low frequency power spectral density of heart rate increment (%VLFI) with obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome (OSAS). However, patients with impaired heart rate variability may exhibit large variations of heart rate increment (HRI) spectral pattern and alter the screening accuracy of the method. To overcome this limitation, the present study uses the high-frequency increment (HFI) peak in the HRI spectrum, which corresponds to the respiratory influence on RR variations over the frequency range 0.2 to 0.4 Hz. We evaluated 288 consecutive patients referred for snoring, observed nocturnal breathing cessation and/or daytime sleepiness. Patients were classified as OSAS if their apnoea plus hypopnoea index (AHI) during polysomnography exceeded 15 events per hour. Synchronized electrocardiogram Holter monitoring allowed HRI analysis. Using a %VLFI threshold >2.4% for identifying the presence of OSAS, sensitivity for OSAS was 74.9%, specificity 51%, positive predictive value 54.9% and negative predictive value 71.7% (33 false negative subjects). Using threshold for %VLFI >2.4% and HFI peak position >0.4 Hz, negative predictive value increased to 78.2% while maintaining specificity at 50.6%. Among 11 subjects with %VLFI <2.4% and HFI peak >0.4 Hz, nine demonstrated moderate to severe OSAS (AHI >30). HFI represents a minimal physiological criterion for applying %VLFI by ensuring that heart rate variations are band frequency limited.

Perceptions of competence, implicit theory of ability, perception of motivational climate, and achievement goals: a test of the trichotomous conceptualization of endorsement of achievement motivation in the physical education setting.

PubMed

Cury, F; Da Fonséca, D; Rufo, M; Sarrazin, P

2002-08-01

To test and extend the conceptualization of the endorsement of achievement goals in the physical education setting Mastery, Performance-approach, and Performance-approach goals, Perception of the physical education competence, Implicit theory about sport ability, and Perception of the motivational climate were assessed among 682 boys attending five French schools. Analysis indicated that (1) Performance-approach goals were positively associated with perception of physical education Competence, Entity beliefs about sport ability, the Performance dimension of the motivational climate, and negatively associated with Incremental beliefs about sport ability. (2) Mastery goals were positively associated with perception of physical education Competence, Incremental beliefs about sport ability, the Mastery dimension of the motivational climate, and negatively associated with the Performance dimension of the motivational climate. Also, (3) Performance-avoidance goals were positively associated with Entity beliefs about sport ability and the Performance dimension of the motivational climate; these goals were negatively associated with Incremental beliefs about sport ability and perception of physical education Competence. These results clearly attested to the validity of the trichotomous model in the physical education setting.

Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle

2015-03-31

California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼ 100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm-dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the "exceptional" 2012-2014 drought in California.

Biomass production in experimental grasslands of different species richness during three years of climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boeck, H. J.; Lemmens, C. M. H. M.; Gielen, B.; Malchair, S.; Carnol, M.; Merckx, R.; van den Berge, J.; Ceulemans, R.; Nijs, I.

2007-12-01

Here we report on the single and combined impacts of climate warming and species richness on the biomass production in experimental grassland communities. Projections of a future warmer climate have stimulated studies on the response of terrestrial ecosystems to this global change. Experiments have likewise addressed the importance of species numbers for ecosystem functioning. There is, however, little knowledge on the interplay between warming and species richness. During three years, we grew experimental plant communities containing one, three or nine grassland species in 12 sunlit, climate-controlled chambers in Wilrijk, Belgium. Half of these chambers were exposed to ambient air temperatures (unheated), while the other half were warmed by 3°C (heated). Equal amounts of water were added to heated and unheated communities, so that warming would imply drier soils if evapotranspiration was higher. Biomass production was decreased due to warming, both aboveground (-29%) and belowground (-25%), as negative impacts of increased heat and drought stress in summer prevailed. Increased resource partitioning, likely mostly through spatial complementarity, led to higher shoot and root biomass in multi-species communities, regardless of the induced warming. Surprisingly, warming suppressed productivity the most in 9-species communities, which may be attributed to negative impacts of intense interspecific competition for resources under conditions of high abiotic stress. Our results suggest that warming and the associated soil drying could reduce primary production in many temperate grasslands, and that this will not necessarily be mitigated by efforts to maintain or increase species richness.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis can mitigate the negative effects of night warming on physiological traits of Medicago truncatula L.

PubMed

Hu, Yajun; Wu, Songlin; Sun, Yuqing; Li, Tao; Zhang, Xin; Chen, Caiyan; Lin, Ge; Chen, Baodong

2015-02-01

Elevated night temperature, one of the main climate warming scenarios, can have profound effects on plant growth and metabolism. However, little attention has been paid to the potential role of mycorrhizal associations in plant responses to night warming, although it is well known that symbiotic fungi can protect host plants against various environmental stresses. In the present study, physiological traits of Medicago truncatula L. in association with the arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungus Rhizophagus irregularis were investigated under simulated night warming. A constant increase in night temperature of 1.53 °C significantly reduced plant shoot and root biomass, flower and seed number, leaf sugar concentration, and shoot Zn and root P concentrations. However, the AM association essentially mitigated these negative effects of night warming by improving plant growth, especially through increased root biomass, root to shoot ratio, and shoot Zn and root P concentrations. A significant interaction was observed between R. irregularis inoculation and night warming in influencing both root sucrose concentration and expression of sucrose synthase (SusS) genes, suggesting that AM symbiosis and increased night temperature jointly regulated plant sugar metabolism. Night warming stimulated AM fungal colonization but did not influence arbuscule abundance, symbiosis-related plant or fungal gene expression, or growth of extraradical mycelium, indicating little effect of night warming on the development or functioning of AM symbiosis. These findings highlight the importance of mycorrhizal symbiosis in assisting plant resilience to climate warming.

Plutons: Simmer between 350° and 500°C for 10 million years, then serve cold (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coleman, D. S.; Davis, J.

2009-12-01

The growing recognition that continental plutons are assembled incrementally over millions of years requires reexamination of the thermal histories of intrusive rocks. With the exception of the suggestion that pluton magma chambers can be revitalized by mafic input at their deepest structural levels, most aspects of modern pluton petrology are built on the underlying assumption that silicic plutons intrude as discrete thermal packages that undergo subsequent monotonic decay back to a steady-state geothermal gradient. The recognition that homogeneous silicic plutons are constructed over timescales too great to be single events necessitates rethinking pluton intrusion mechanisms, textures, thermochronology, chemical evolution and links to volcanic rocks. Three-dimensional thermal modeling of sheeted (horizontal and vertical) incremental pluton assembly (using HEAT3D by Wohletz, 2007) yields several results that are largely independent of intrusive geometry and may help understand bothersome field and laboratory results from plutonic rocks. 1) All increments cool quickly below hornblende closure temperature. However, late increments are emplaced into walls warmed by earlier increments, and they cycle between hornblende and biotite closure temperatures, a range in which fluid-rich melts are likely to be present. These conditions persist until the increments are far from the region of new magma flux, or the addition of increments stops. These observations are supported by Ar thermochronology and may explain why heterogeneous early marginal intrusive phases often grade into younger homogeneous interior map units. 2) Early increments become the contact metamorphic wall rocks of later increments. This observation suggests that much of the contact metamorphism associated with a given volume of plutonic rock is “lost” via textural modification of early increments during intrusion of later increments. Johnson and Glazner (CMP, in press) argue that mappable variations in pluton texture can result from textural modification during thermal cycling associated with incremental assembly. 3) The thermal structure of the model pluton evolves toward roughly spheroidal isotherms even though the pluton is assembled from thin tabular sheets. The zone of melt-bearing rock and the shape of intrapluton contact metamorphic isograds bear little resemblance to the increments from which the pluton was built. Consequently, pluton contacts mapped by variations in texture that reflect the thermal cycling inherent to incremental assembly will inevitably be “blob” or diapir-like, but will yield little insight into magma intrusion geometry. 4) Although models yield large regions of melt-bearing rock, the melt fraction is low and the melt-bearing volume at any time is small compared to the total volume of the pluton. This observation raises doubts about the connections between zoned silicic plutons and large ignimbrite eruptions.

Growth and phenology of three dwarf shrub species in a six-year soil warming experiment at the alpine treeline.

PubMed

Anadon-Rosell, Alba; Rixen, Christian; Cherubini, Paolo; Wipf, Sonja; Hagedorn, Frank; Dawes, Melissa A

2014-01-01

Global warming can have substantial impacts on the phenological and growth patterns of alpine and Arctic species, resulting in shifts in plant community composition and ecosystem dynamics. We evaluated the effects of a six-year experimental soil warming treatment (+4°C, 2007-2012) on the phenology and growth of three co-dominant dwarf shrub species growing in the understory of Larix decidua and Pinus uncinata at treeline in the Swiss Alps. We monitored vegetative and reproductive phenology of Vaccinium myrtillus, Vaccinium gaultherioides and Empetrum hermaphroditum throughout the early growing season of 2012 and, following a major harvest at peak season, we measured the biomass of above-ground ramet fractions. For all six years of soil warming we measured annual shoot growth of the three species and analyzed ramet age and xylem ring width of V. myrtillus. Our results show that phenology of the three species was more influenced by snowmelt timing, and also by plot tree species (Larix or Pinus) in the case of V. myrtillus, than by soil warming. However, the warming treatment led to increased V. myrtillus total above-ground ramet biomass (+36% in 2012), especially new shoot biomass (+63% in 2012), as well as increased new shoot increment length and xylem ring width (+22% and +41%, respectively; average for 2007-2012). These results indicate enhanced overall growth of V. myrtillus under soil warming that was sustained over six years and was not caused by an extended growing period in early summer. In contrast, E. hermaphroditum only showed a positive shoot growth response to warming in 2011 (+21%), and V. gaultherioides showed no significant growth response. Our results indicate that V. myrtillus might have a competitive advantage over the less responsive co-occurring dwarf shrub species under future global warming.

Growth and Phenology of Three Dwarf Shrub Species in a Six-Year Soil Warming Experiment at the Alpine Treeline

PubMed Central

Anadon-Rosell, Alba; Rixen, Christian; Cherubini, Paolo; Wipf, Sonja; Hagedorn, Frank; Dawes, Melissa A.

2014-01-01

Global warming can have substantial impacts on the phenological and growth patterns of alpine and Arctic species, resulting in shifts in plant community composition and ecosystem dynamics. We evaluated the effects of a six-year experimental soil warming treatment (+4°C, 2007–2012) on the phenology and growth of three co-dominant dwarf shrub species growing in the understory of Larix decidua and Pinus uncinata at treeline in the Swiss Alps. We monitored vegetative and reproductive phenology of Vaccinium myrtillus, Vaccinium gaultherioides and Empetrum hermaphroditum throughout the early growing season of 2012 and, following a major harvest at peak season, we measured the biomass of above-ground ramet fractions. For all six years of soil warming we measured annual shoot growth of the three species and analyzed ramet age and xylem ring width of V. myrtillus. Our results show that phenology of the three species was more influenced by snowmelt timing, and also by plot tree species (Larix or Pinus) in the case of V. myrtillus, than by soil warming. However, the warming treatment led to increased V. myrtillus total above-ground ramet biomass (+36% in 2012), especially new shoot biomass (+63% in 2012), as well as increased new shoot increment length and xylem ring width (+22% and +41%, respectively; average for 2007–2012). These results indicate enhanced overall growth of V. myrtillus under soil warming that was sustained over six years and was not caused by an extended growing period in early summer. In contrast, E. hermaphroditum only showed a positive shoot growth response to warming in 2011 (+21%), and V. gaultherioides showed no significant growth response. Our results indicate that V. myrtillus might have a competitive advantage over the less responsive co-occurring dwarf shrub species under future global warming. PMID:24956273

Recent decrease in typhoon destructive potential and global warming implications.

PubMed

Lin, I-I; Chan, Johnny C L

2015-05-20

Typhoons (tropical cyclones) severely impact the half-billion population of the Asian Pacific. Intriguingly, during the recent decade, typhoon destructive potential (Power Dissipation Index, PDI) has decreased considerably (by ∼ 35%). This decrease, paradoxically, has occurred despite the increase in typhoon intensity and ocean warming. Using the method proposed by Emanuel (in 2007), we show that the stronger negative contributions from typhoon frequency and duration, decrease to cancel the positive contribution from the increasing intensity, controlling the PDI. Examining the typhoons' environmental conditions, we find that although the ocean condition became more favourable (warming) in the recent decade, the atmospheric condition 'worsened' at the same time. The 'worsened' atmospheric condition appears to effectively overpower the 'better' ocean conditions to suppress PDI. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling.

Differentiation regional climate impact indicators at 1.5°C and 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, C. F.

2016-12-01

Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. By establishing 1.5°C as the long term temperature limit for global average temperature increase and inviting a special report of the IPCC on the impacts of 1.5°C, the Paris Agreement has put such assessments high on the post-Paris science agenda. Here I will present recent findings of climate impacts at 1.5°C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. In particular, I will present findings from a recent study that attempts to differentiate between such impacts at warming levels of 1.5°¸C and 2°C above pre-industrial (Schleussner et al., 2016). By analyzing changes in indicators for 26 world regions as applicable, the study found regional dependent differences between a 1.5°C and 2°C warming. Regional hot-spots of change emerge with tropical regions bearing the brunt of the impacts of an additional 0.5°C warming. These findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. Building on that analysis, I will discuss limitations of existing approaches to differentiate between warming levels and outline opportunities for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C warming. ReferencesSchleussner, C.-F. et al. Differential climate impacts for policy relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5°C and 2°C. Earth Syst. Dyn. 7, 327-351 (2016).

Eco-evolutionary responses of Bromus tectorum to climate change: implications for biological invasions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zelikova, Tamara J.; Hufbauer, Ruth A.; Reed, Sasha C.; Wertin, Timothy M.; Fettig, Christa; Belnap, Jayne

2013-01-01

How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green-up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site-specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct implications for B. tectorum invasion dynamics on the Colorado Plateau.

Eco-evolutionary responses of Bromus tectorum to climate change: implications for biological invasions.

PubMed

Zelikova, Tamara J; Hufbauer, Ruth A; Reed, Sasha C; Wertin, Timothy; Fettig, Christa; Belnap, Jayne

2013-05-01

How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green-up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site-specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct implications for B. tectorum invasion dynamics on the Colorado Plateau.

Unshelled abalone and corrupted urchins: development of marine calcifiers in a changing ocean.

PubMed

Byrne, Maria; Ho, Melanie; Wong, Eunice; Soars, Natalie A; Selvakumaraswamy, Paulina; Shepard-Brennand, Hannah; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Davis, Andrew R

2011-08-07

The most fragile skeletons produced by benthic marine calcifiers are those that larvae and juveniles make to support their bodies. Ocean warming, acidification, decreased carbonate saturation and their interactive effects are likely to impair skeletogenesis. Failure to produce skeleton in a changing ocean has negative implications for a diversity of marine species. We examined the interactive effects of warming and acidification on an abalone (Haliotis coccoradiata) and a sea urchin (Heliocidaris erythrogramma) reared from fertilization in temperature and pH/pCO(2) treatments in a climatically and regionally relevant setting. Exposure of ectodermal (abalone) and mesodermal (echinoid) calcifying systems to warming (+2°C to 4°C) and acidification (pH 7.6-7.8) resulted in unshelled larvae and abnormal juveniles. Haliotis development was most sensitive with no interaction between stressors. For Heliocidaris, the percentage of normal juveniles decreased in response to both stressors, although a +2°C warming diminished the negative effect of low pH. The number of spines produced decreased with increasing acidification/pCO(2), and the interactive effect between stressors indicated that a +2°C warming reduced the negative effects of low pH. At +4°C, the developmental thermal tolerance was breached. Our results show that projected near-future climate change will have deleterious effects on development with differences in vulnerability in the two species.

Unshelled abalone and corrupted urchins: development of marine calcifiers in a changing ocean

PubMed Central

Byrne, Maria; Ho, Melanie; Wong, Eunice; Soars, Natalie A.; Selvakumaraswamy, Paulina; Shepard-Brennand, Hannah; Dworjanyn, Symon A.; Davis, Andrew R.

2011-01-01

The most fragile skeletons produced by benthic marine calcifiers are those that larvae and juveniles make to support their bodies. Ocean warming, acidification, decreased carbonate saturation and their interactive effects are likely to impair skeletogenesis. Failure to produce skeleton in a changing ocean has negative implications for a diversity of marine species. We examined the interactive effects of warming and acidification on an abalone (Haliotis coccoradiata) and a sea urchin (Heliocidaris erythrogramma) reared from fertilization in temperature and pH/pCO2 treatments in a climatically and regionally relevant setting. Exposure of ectodermal (abalone) and mesodermal (echinoid) calcifying systems to warming (+2°C to 4°C) and acidification (pH 7.6–7.8) resulted in unshelled larvae and abnormal juveniles. Haliotis development was most sensitive with no interaction between stressors. For Heliocidaris, the percentage of normal juveniles decreased in response to both stressors, although a +2°C warming diminished the negative effect of low pH. The number of spines produced decreased with increasing acidification/pCO2, and the interactive effect between stressors indicated that a +2°C warming reduced the negative effects of low pH. At +4°C, the developmental thermal tolerance was breached. Our results show that projected near-future climate change will have deleterious effects on development with differences in vulnerability in the two species. PMID:21177689

Next-century ocean acidification and warming both reduce calcification rate, but only acidification alters skeletal morphology of reef-building coral Siderastrea siderea.

PubMed

Horvath, Kimmaree M; Castillo, Karl D; Armstrong, Pualani; Westfield, Isaac T; Courtney, Travis; Ries, Justin B

2016-07-29

Atmospheric pCO2 is predicted to rise from 400 to 900 ppm by year 2100, causing seawater temperature to increase by 1-4 °C and pH to decrease by 0.1-0.3. Sixty-day experiments were conducted to investigate the independent and combined impacts of acidification (pCO2 = 424-426, 888-940 ppm-v) and warming (T = 28, 32 °C) on calcification rate and skeletal morphology of the abundant and widespread Caribbean reef-building scleractinian coral Siderastrea siderea. Hierarchical linear mixed-effects modelling reveals that coral calcification rate was negatively impacted by both warming and acidification, with their combined effects yielding the most deleterious impact. Negative effects of warming (32 °C/424 ppm-v) and high-temperature acidification (32 °C/940 ppm-v) on calcification rate were apparent across both 30-day intervals of the experiment, while effects of low-temperature acidification (28 °C/888 ppm-v) were not apparent until the second 30-day interval-indicating delayed onset of acidification effects at lower temperatures. Notably, two measures of coral skeletal morphology-corallite height and corallite infilling-were negatively impacted by next-century acidification, but not by next-century warming. Therefore, while next-century ocean acidification and warming will reduce the rate at which corals build their skeletons, next-century acidification will also modify the morphology and, potentially, function of coral skeletons.

Next-century ocean acidification and warming both reduce calcification rate, but only acidification alters skeletal morphology of reef-building coral Siderastrea siderea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horvath, Kimmaree M.; Castillo, Karl D.; Armstrong, Pualani; Westfield, Isaac T.; Courtney, Travis; Ries, Justin B.

2016-07-01

Atmospheric pCO2 is predicted to rise from 400 to 900 ppm by year 2100, causing seawater temperature to increase by 1-4 °C and pH to decrease by 0.1-0.3. Sixty-day experiments were conducted to investigate the independent and combined impacts of acidification (pCO2 = 424-426, 888-940 ppm-v) and warming (T = 28, 32 °C) on calcification rate and skeletal morphology of the abundant and widespread Caribbean reef-building scleractinian coral Siderastrea siderea. Hierarchical linear mixed-effects modelling reveals that coral calcification rate was negatively impacted by both warming and acidification, with their combined effects yielding the most deleterious impact. Negative effects of warming (32 °C/424 ppm-v) and high-temperature acidification (32 °C/940 ppm-v) on calcification rate were apparent across both 30-day intervals of the experiment, while effects of low-temperature acidification (28 °C/888 ppm-v) were not apparent until the second 30-day interval—indicating delayed onset of acidification effects at lower temperatures. Notably, two measures of coral skeletal morphology-corallite height and corallite infilling-were negatively impacted by next-century acidification, but not by next-century warming. Therefore, while next-century ocean acidification and warming will reduce the rate at which corals build their skeletons, next-century acidification will also modify the morphology and, potentially, function of coral skeletons.

Regional growth decline of sugar maple (Acer saccharum) and its potential causes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bishop, Daniel A.; Beier, Colin M.; Pederson, Neil; Lawrence, Gregory B.; Stella, John C; Sullivan, Timothy J.

2015-01-01

Sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh) has experienced poor vigor, regeneration failure, and elevated mortality across much of its range, but there has been relatively little attention to its growth rates. Based on a well-replicated dendrochronological network of range-centered populations in the Adirondack Mountains (USA), which encompassed a wide gradient of soil fertility, we observed that the majority of sugar maple trees exhibited negative growth trends in the last several decades, regardless of age, diameter, or soil fertility. Such growth patterns were unexpected, given recent warming and increased moisture availability, as well as reduced acidic deposition, which should have favored growth. Mean basal area increment was greater on base-rich soils, but these stands also experienced sharp reductions in growth. Growth sensitivity of sugar maple to temperature and precipitation was non-stationary during the last century, with overall weaker relationships than expected. Given the favorable competitive status and age structure of the Adirondack sugar maple populations sampled, evidence of widespread growth reductions raises concern over this ecologically and economically important tree. Further study will be needed to establish whether growth declines of sugar maple are occurring more widely across its range.

A possible cause of the AO polarity reversal from winter to summer in 2010 and its relation to hemispheric extreme summer weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otomi, Yuriko; Tachibana, Yoshihiro; Nakamura, Tetsu

2013-04-01

In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), that is, low pressure in the Arctic and high pressure in the midlatitudes. In contrast, the AO index the previous winter and spring (2009/2010) was record-breaking negative. The AO polarity reversal that began in summer 2010 can explain the abnormally hot summer. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern—warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes—under the influence of the negative AO. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. A model simulation strongly suggested that the AO-related summertime North Atlantic oceanic warm temperature anomalies remotely caused blocking highs to form over Europe, which amplified the positive summertime AO. Thus, a possible cause of the AO polarity reversal might be the "memory" of the negative winter AO in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting an interseasonal linkage of the AO in which the oceanic memory of a wintertime negative AO induces a positive AO in the following summer. Understanding of this interseasonal linkage may aid in the long-term prediction of such abnormal summer events.

A possible cause of the AO polarity reversal from winter to summer in 2010 and its relation to hemispheric extreme hot summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tachibana, Yoshihiro; Otomi, Yuriko; Nakamura, Tetsu

2013-04-01

In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), that is, low pressure in the Arctic and high pressure in the midlatitudes. In contrast, the AO index the previous winter and spring (2009/2010) was record-breaking negative. The AO polarity reversal that began in summer 2010 can explain the abnormally hot summer. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern—warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes—under the influence of the negative AO. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. A model simulation strongly suggested that the AO-related summertime North Atlantic oceanic warm temperature anomalies remotely caused blocking highs to form over Europe, which amplified the positive summertime AO. Thus, a possible cause of the AO polarity reversal might be the "memory" of the negative winter AO in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting an interseasonal linkage of the AO in which the oceanic memory of a wintertime negative AO induces a positive AO in the following summer. Understanding of this interseasonal linkage may aid in the long-term prediction of such abnormal summer events.

Hydrologic Response and Watershed Sensitivity to Climate Warming in California's Sierra Nevada

PubMed Central

Null, Sarah E.; Viers, Joshua H.; Mount, Jeffrey F.

2010-01-01

This study focuses on the differential hydrologic response of individual watersheds to climate warming within the Sierra Nevada mountain region of California. We describe climate warming models for 15 west-slope Sierra Nevada watersheds in California under unimpaired conditions using WEAP21, a weekly one-dimensional rainfall-runoff model. Incremental climate warming alternatives increase air temperature uniformly by 2°, 4°, and 6°C, but leave other climatic variables unchanged from observed values. Results are analyzed for changes in mean annual flow, peak runoff timing, and duration of low flow conditions to highlight which watersheds are most resilient to climate warming within a region, and how individual watersheds may be affected by changes to runoff quantity and timing. Results are compared with current water resources development and ecosystem services in each watershed to gain insight into how regional climate warming may affect water supply, hydropower generation, and montane ecosystems. Overall, watersheds in the northern Sierra Nevada are most vulnerable to decreased mean annual flow, southern-central watersheds are most susceptible to runoff timing changes, and the central portion of the range is most affected by longer periods with low flow conditions. Modeling results suggest the American and Mokelumne Rivers are most vulnerable to all three metrics, and the Kern River is the most resilient, in part from the high elevations of the watershed. Our research seeks to bridge information gaps between climate change modeling and regional management planning, helping to incorporate climate change into the development of regional adaptation strategies for Sierra Nevada watersheds. PMID:20368984

A Novel Sensor Based on a Single-Pixel Microwave Radiometer for Warm Object Counting: Concept Validation and IoT Perspectives

PubMed Central

Alimenti, Federico; Bonafoni, Stefania; Roselli, Luca

2017-01-01

Controlled measurements by a low-cost single-pixel microwave radiometer operating at 12.65 GHz were carried out to assess the detection and counting capability for targets warmer than the surroundings. The adopted reference test targets were pre-warmed water and oil; and a hand, both naked and wearing a glove. The results showed the reliability of microwave radiometry for counting operations under controlled conditions, and its effectiveness at detecting even warm targets masked by unheated dielectric layers. An electromagnetic model describing the scenario sensed by the radiometer antenna is proposed, and comparison with the experimental observations shows a good agreement. The measurements prove that reliable counting is enabled by an antenna temperature increment, for each target sample added, of around 1 K. Starting from this value, an analysis of the antenna filling factor was performed to provide an instrument useful for evaluating real applicability in many practical situations. This study also allows the direct people counting problem to be addressed, providing preliminary operational indications, reference numbers and experimental validation. PMID:28613264

Climate-growth relationships of Abies spectabilis in a central Himalayan treeline ecotone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwab, Niels; Kaczka, Ryszard J.; Schickhoff, Udo

2017-04-01

Climate warming is expected to induce treelines to advance to higher elevations. Empirical studies in diverse mountain ranges, however, give evidence of both advancing alpine treelines as well as rather insignificant responses. The large spectrum of responses is not fully understood. In the framework of investigating the sensitivity and response of a near-natural treeline ecotone in Rolwaling Himal, Nepal, to climate warming we present results from dendroclimatological analyses of Abies spectabilis (Himalayan Fir) increment cores. Tree ring width was measured and cross-dated. After standardization, the chronology was correlated with temperature and precipitation variables. Preliminary results point to positive correlations with autumn temperature and precipitation. We will present improved climate-growth relationships. The resulting climate - tree growth relationships may be used as an indication of future growth patterns and treeline dynamics under climate change conditions.

Seasonal flows on warm Martian slopes

USGS Publications Warehouse

McEwen, A.S.; Ojha, L.; Dundas, C.M.; Mattson, S.S.; Byrne, S.; Wray, J.J.; Cull, S.C.; Murchie, S.L.; Thomas, N.; Gulick, V.C.

2011-01-01

Water probably flowed across ancient Mars, but whether it ever exists as a liquid on the surface today remains debatable. Recurring slope lineae (RSL) are narrow (0.5 to 5 meters), relatively dark markings on steep (25?? to 40??) slopes; repeat images from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment show them to appear and incrementally grow during warm seasons and fade in cold seasons. They extend downslope from bedrock outcrops, often associated with small channels, and hundreds of them form in some rare locations. RSL appear and lengthen in the late southern spring and summer from 48??S to 32??S latitudes favoring equator-facing slopes, which are times and places with peak surface temperatures from ???250 to 300 kelvin. Liquid brines near the surface might explain this activity, but the exact mechanism and source of water are not understood.

The specificity of parenting effects: Differential relations of parent praise and criticism to children's theories of intelligence and learning goals.

PubMed

Gunderson, Elizabeth A; Donnellan, M Brent; Robins, Richard W; Trzesniewski, Kali H

2018-04-24

Individuals who believe that intelligence can be improved with effort (an incremental theory of intelligence) and who approach challenges with the goal of improving their understanding (a learning goal) tend to have higher academic achievement. Furthermore, parent praise is associated with children's incremental theories and learning goals. However, the influences of parental criticism, as well as different forms of praise and criticism (e.g., process vs. person), have received less attention. We examine these associations by analyzing two existing datasets (Study 1: N = 317 first to eighth graders; Study 2: N = 282 fifth and eighth graders). In both studies, older children held more incremental theories of intelligence, but lower learning goals, than younger children. Unexpectedly, the relation between theories of intelligence and learning goals was nonsignificant and did not vary with children's grade level. In both studies, overall perceived parent praise positively related to children's learning goals, whereas perceived parent criticism negatively related to incremental theories of intelligence. In Study 2, perceived parent process praise was the only significant (positive) predictor of children's learning goals, whereas perceived parent person criticism was the only significant (negative) predictor of incremental theories of intelligence. Finally, Study 2 provided some support for our hypothesis that age-related differences in perceived parent praise and criticism can explain age-related differences in children's learning goals. Results suggest that incremental theories of intelligence and learning goals might not be strongly related during childhood and that perceived parent praise and criticism have important, but distinct, relations with each motivational construct. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Group Increment Scheme for Infrared Absorption Intensities of Greenhouse Gases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kokkila, Sara I.; Bera, Partha P.; Francisco, Joseph S.; Lee, Timothy J.

2012-01-01

A molecule's absorption in the atmospheric infrared (IR) window (IRW) is an indicator of its efficiency as a greenhouse gas. A model for estimating the absorption of a fluorinated molecule within the IRW was developed to assess its radiative impact. This model will be useful in comparing different hydrofluorocarbons and hydrofluoroethers contribution to global warming. The absorption of radiation by greenhouse gases, in particular hydrofluoroethers and hydrofluorocarbons, was investigated using ab initio quantum mechanical methods. Least squares regression techniques were used to create a model based on this data. The placement and number of fluorines in the molecule were found to affect the absorption in the IR window and were incorporated into the model. Several group increment models are discussed. An additive model based on one-carbon groups is found to work satisfactorily in predicting the ab initio calculated vibrational intensities.

Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming.

PubMed

Zhao, Chuang; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Huang, Yao; Ciais, Philippe; Elliott, Joshua; Huang, Mengtian; Janssens, Ivan A; Li, Tao; Lian, Xu; Liu, Yongwen; Müller, Christoph; Peng, Shushi; Wang, Tao; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Peñuelas, Josep

2016-12-19

Rice is the staple food for more than 50% of the world's population 1-3 . Reliable prediction of changes in rice yield is thus central for maintaining global food security. This is an extraordinary challenge. Here, we compare the sensitivity of rice yield to temperature increase derived from field warming experiments and three modelling approaches: statistical models, local crop models and global gridded crop models. Field warming experiments produce a substantial rice yield loss under warming, with an average temperature sensitivity of -5.2 ± 1.4% K -1 . Local crop models give a similar sensitivity (-6.3 ± 0.4% K -1 ), but statistical and global gridded crop models both suggest less negative impacts of warming on yields (-0.8 ± 0.3% and -2.4 ± 3.7% K -1 , respectively). Using data from field warming experiments, we further propose a conditional probability approach to constrain the large range of global gridded crop model results for the future yield changes in response to warming by the end of the century (from -1.3% to -9.3% K -1 ). The constraint implies a more negative response to warming (-8.3 ± 1.4% K -1 ) and reduces the spread of the model ensemble by 33%. This yield reduction exceeds that estimated by the International Food Policy Research Institute assessment (-4.2 to -6.4% K -1 ) (ref. 4). Our study suggests that without CO 2 fertilization, effective adaptation and genetic improvement, severe rice yield losses are plausible under intensive climate warming scenarios.

Biomass production in experimental grasslands of different species richness during three years of climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boeck, H. J.; Lemmens, C. M. H. M.; Zavalloni, C.; Gielen, B.; Malchair, S.; Carnol, M.; Merckx, R.; van den Berge, J.; Ceulemans, R.; Nijs, I.

2008-04-01

Here we report on the single and combined impacts of climate warming and species richness on the biomass production in experimental grassland communities. Projections of a future warmer climate have stimulated studies on the response of terrestrial ecosystems to this global change. Experiments have likewise addressed the importance of species numbers for ecosystem functioning. There is, however, little knowledge on the interplay between warming and species richness. During three years, we grew experimental plant communities containing one, three or nine grassland species in 12 sunlit, climate-controlled chambers in Wilrijk, Belgium. Half of these chambers were exposed to ambient air temperatures (unheated), while the other half were warmed by 3°C (heated). Equal amounts of water were added to heated and unheated communities, so that warming would imply drier soils if evapotranspiration was higher. Biomass production was decreased due to warming, both aboveground (-29%) and belowground (-25%), as negative impacts of increased heat and drought stress in summer prevailed. Complementarity effects, likely mostly through both increased aboveground spatial complementarity and facilitative effects of legumes, led to higher shoot and root biomass in multi-species communities, regardless of the induced warming. Surprisingly, warming suppressed productivity the most in 9-species communities, which may be attributed to negative impacts of intense interspecific competition for resources under conditions of high abiotic stress. Our results suggest that warming and the associated soil drying could reduce primary production in many temperate grasslands, and that this will not necessarily be mitigated by efforts to maintain or increase species richness.

Coexistence of positive and negative refractive index sensitivity in the liquid-core photonic crystal fiber based plasmonic sensor.

PubMed

Shuai, Binbin; Xia, Li; Liu, Deming

2012-11-05

We present and numerically characterize a liquid-core photonic crystal fiber based plasmonic sensor. The coupling properties and sensing performance are investigated by the finite element method. It is found that not only the plasmonic mode dispersion relation but also the fundamental mode dispersion relation is rather sensitive to the analyte refractive index (RI). The positive and negative RI sensitivity coexist in the proposed design. It features a positive RI sensitivity when the increment of the SPP mode effective index is larger than that of the fundamental mode, but the sensor shows a negative RI sensitivity once the increment of the fundamental mode gets larger. A maximum negative RI sensitivity of -5500nm/RIU (Refractive Index Unit) is achieved in the sensing range of 1.50-1.53. The effects of the structural parameters on the plasmonic excitations are also studied, with a view of tuning and optimizing the resonant spectrum.

Continental warming preceding the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum.

PubMed

Secord, Ross; Gingerich, Philip D; Lohmann, Kyger C; Macleod, Kenneth G

2010-10-21

Marine and continental records show an abrupt negative shift in carbon isotope values at ∼55.8 Myr ago. This carbon isotope excursion (CIE) is consistent with the release of a massive amount of isotopically light carbon into the atmosphere and was associated with a dramatic rise in global temperatures termed the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM). Greenhouse gases released during the CIE, probably including methane, have often been considered the main cause of PETM warming. However, some evidence from the marine record suggests that warming directly preceded the CIE, raising the possibility that the CIE and PETM may have been linked to earlier warming with different origins. Yet pre-CIE warming is still uncertain. Disentangling the sequence of events before and during the CIE and PETM is important for understanding the causes of, and Earth system responses to, abrupt climate change. Here we show that continental warming of about 5 °C preceded the CIE in the Bighorn Basin, Wyoming. Our evidence, based on oxygen isotopes in mammal teeth (which reflect temperature-sensitive fractionation processes) and other proxies, reveals a marked temperature increase directly below the CIE, and again in the CIE. Pre-CIE warming is also supported by a negative amplification of δ(13)C values in soil carbonates below the CIE. Our results suggest that at least two sources of warming-the earlier of which is unlikely to have been methane-contributed to the PETM.

Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle

2015-01-01

California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm–dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the “exceptional” 2012–2014 drought in California. PMID:25733875

Changes in extremes due to half a degree warming in observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, E. M.; Schleussner, C. F.; Pfleiderer, P.

2017-12-01

Assessing the climate impacts of half-a-degree warming increments is high on the post-Paris science agenda. Discriminating those effects is particularly challenging for climate extremes such as heavy precipitation and heat extremes for which model uncertainties are generally large, and for which internal variability is so important that it can easily offset or strongly amplify the forced local changes induced by half a degree warming. Despite these challenges we provide evidence for large-scale changes in the intensity and frequency of climate extremes due to half a degree warming. We first assess the difference in extreme climate indicators in observational data for the 1960s and 1970s versus the recent past, two periods differ by half a degree. We identify distinct differences for the global and continental-scale occurrence of heat and heavy precipitation extremes. We show that those observed changes in heavy precipitation and heat extremes broadly agree with simulated historical differences and are informative for the projected differences between 1.5 and 2°C warming despite different radiative forcings. We therefore argue that evidence from the observational record can inform the debate about discernible climate impacts in the light of model uncertainty by providing a conservative estimate of the implications of 0.5°C warming. A limitation of using the observational record arises from potential non-linearities in the response of climate extremes to a certain level of warming. We test for potential non-linearities in the response of heat and heavy precipitation extremes in a large ensemble of transient climate simulations. We further quantify differences between a time-window approach in a coupled model large ensemble vs. time-slice experiments using prescribed SST experiments performed in the context of the HAPPI-MIP project. Thereby we provide different lines of evidence that half a degree warming leads to substantial changes in the expected occurrence of heat and heavy precipitation extremes.

Prospective analysis of body mass index, physical activity and colorectal cancer risk associated with β-catenin (CTNNB1) status

PubMed Central

Morikawa, Teppei; Kuchiba, Aya; Lochhead, Paul; Nishihara, Reiko; Yamauchi, Mai; Imamura, Yu; Liao, Xiaoyun; Qian, Zhi Rong; Ng, Kimmie; Chan, Andrew T.; Meyerhardt, Jeffrey A.; Giovannucci, Edward; Fuchs, Charles S.; Ogino, Shuji

2013-01-01

Dysregulation of the WNT/β-catenin (CTNNB1) signaling pathway is implicated in colorectal carcinoma and metabolic diseases. Considering these roles and cancer prevention, we hypothesized that tumor CTNNB1 status might influence cellular sensitivity to obesity and physical activity. In clinical follow-up of 109,046 women in the Nurses' Health Study and 47,684 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, there were 861 incident rectal and colon cancers with tissue immunohistochemistry data on nuclear CTNNB1 expression. Using this molecular pathological epidemiology database, we performed Cox proportional hazards regression analysis using data duplication method to assess differential associations of body mass index (BMI) or exercise activity with colorectal cancer risk according to tumor CTNNB1 status. Greater BMI was associated with a significantly higher risk of CTNNB1-negative cancer [multivariate hazard ratio (HR) =1.34; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.18–1.53 for 5.0 kg/m2 increment; Ptrend=0.0001], but not with CTNNB1-positive cancer risk (multivariate HR =1.07; 95% CI, 0.92–1.25 for 5.0 kg/m2 increment; Ptrend=0.36; Pheterogeneity=0.027, between CTNNB1-negative and CTNNB1-positive cancer risks). Physical activity level was associated with a lower risk of CTNNB1-negative cancer (multivariate HR =0.93; 95% CI, 0.87–1.00 for 10 MET-hours/week increment; Ptrend=0.044), but not with CTNNB1-positive cancer risk (multivariate HR =0.98; 95% CI, 0.91–1.05 for 10 MET-hours/week increment; Ptrend=0.60). Our findings argue that obesity and physical inactivity are associated with a higher risk of CTNNB1-negative colorectal cancer, but not with CTNNB1-positive cancer risk. Further, they suggest that energy balance and metabolism status exerts its effect in a specific carcinogenesis pathway that is less likely dependent on WNT/CTNNB1 activation. PMID:23442321

Impact of ocean warming and ocean acidification on larval development and calcification in the sea urchin Tripneustes gratilla.

PubMed

Sheppard Brennand, Hannah; Soars, Natalie; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Davis, Andrew R; Byrne, Maria

2010-06-29

As the oceans simultaneously warm, acidify and increase in P(CO2), prospects for marine biota are of concern. Calcifying species may find it difficult to produce their skeleton because ocean acidification decreases calcium carbonate saturation and accompanying hypercapnia suppresses metabolism. However, this may be buffered by enhanced growth and metabolism due to warming. We examined the interactive effects of near-future ocean warming and increased acidification/P(CO2) on larval development in the tropical sea urchin Tripneustes gratilla. Larvae were reared in multifactorial experiments in flow-through conditions in all combinations of three temperature and three pH/P(CO2) treatments. Experiments were placed in the setting of projected near future conditions for SE Australia, a global change hot spot. Increased acidity/P(CO2) and decreased carbonate mineral saturation significantly reduced larval growth resulting in decreased skeletal length. Increased temperature (+3 degrees C) stimulated growth, producing significantly bigger larvae across all pH/P(CO2) treatments up to a thermal threshold (+6 degrees C). Increased acidity (-0.3-0.5 pH units) and hypercapnia significantly reduced larval calcification. A +3 degrees C warming diminished the negative effects of acidification and hypercapnia on larval growth. This study of the effects of ocean warming and CO(2) driven acidification on development and calcification of marine invertebrate larvae reared in experimental conditions from the outset of development (fertilization) shows the positive and negative effects of these stressors. In simultaneous exposure to stressors the dwarfing effects of acidification were dominant. Reduction in size of sea urchin larvae in a high P(CO2) ocean would likely impair their performance with negative consequent effects for benthic adult populations.

Elucidating the impact of temperature variability and extremes on cereal croplands through remote sensing.

PubMed

Duncan, John M A; Dash, Jadunandan; Atkinson, Peter M

2015-04-01

Remote sensing-derived wheat crop yield-climate models were developed to highlight the impact of temperature variation during thermo-sensitive periods (anthesis and grain-filling; TSP) of wheat crop development. Specific questions addressed are: can the impact of temperature variation occurring during the TSP on wheat crop yield be detected using remote sensing data and what is the impact? Do crop critical temperature thresholds during TSP exist in real world cropping landscapes? These questions are tested in one of the world's major wheat breadbaskets of Punjab and Haryana, north-west India. Warming average minimum temperatures during the TSP had a greater negative impact on wheat crop yield than warming maximum temperatures. Warming minimum and maximum temperatures during the TSP explain a greater amount of variation in wheat crop yield than average growing season temperature. In complex real world cereal croplands there was a variable yield response to critical temperature threshold exceedance, specifically a more pronounced negative impact on wheat yield with increased warming events above 35 °C. The negative impact of warming increases with a later start-of-season suggesting earlier sowing can reduce wheat crop exposure harmful temperatures. However, even earlier sown wheat experienced temperature-induced yield losses, which, when viewed in the context of projected warming up to 2100 indicates adaptive responses should focus on increasing wheat tolerance to heat. This study shows it is possible to capture the impacts of temperature variation during the TSP on wheat crop yield in real world cropping landscapes using remote sensing data; this has important implications for monitoring the impact of climate change, variation and heat extremes on wheat croplands. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate warming and agricultural stressors interact to determine stream periphyton community composition.

PubMed

Piggott, Jeremy J; Salis, Romana K; Lear, Gavin; Townsend, Colin R; Matthaei, Christoph D

2015-01-01

Lack of knowledge about how the various drivers of global climate change will interact with multiple stressors already affecting ecosystems is the basis for great uncertainty in projections of future biological change. Despite concerns about the impacts of changes in land use, eutrophication and climate warming in running waters, the interactive effects of these stressors on stream periphyton are largely unknown. We manipulated nutrients (simulating agricultural runoff), deposited fine sediment (simulating agricultural erosion) (two levels each) and water temperature (eight levels, 0-6 °C above ambient) simultaneously in 128 streamside mesocosms. Our aim was to determine the individual and combined effects of the three stressors on the algal and bacterial constituents of the periphyton. All three stressors had pervasive individual effects, but in combination frequently produced synergisms at the population level and antagonisms at the community level. Depending on sediment and nutrient conditions, the effect of raised temperature frequently produced contrasting response patterns, with stronger or opposing effects when one or both stressors were augmented. Thus, warming tended to interact negatively with nutrients or sediment by weakening or reversing positive temperature effects or strengthening negative ones. Five classes of algal growth morphology were all affected in complex ways by raised temperature, suggesting that these measures may prove unreliable in biomonitoring programs in a warming climate. The evenness and diversity of the most abundant bacterial taxa increased with temperature at ambient but not with enriched nutrient levels, indicating that warming coupled with nutrient limitation may lead to a more evenly distributed bacterial community as temperatures rise. Freshwater management decisions that seek to avoid or mitigate the negative effects of agricultural land use on stream periphyton should be informed by knowledge of the interactive effects of multiple stressors in a warming climate. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of Ocean Warming and Ocean Acidification on Larval Development and Calcification in the Sea Urchin Tripneustes gratilla

PubMed Central

Sheppard Brennand, Hannah; Soars, Natalie; Dworjanyn, Symon A.; Davis, Andrew R.; Byrne, Maria

2010-01-01

Background As the oceans simultaneously warm, acidify and increase in P CO2, prospects for marine biota are of concern. Calcifying species may find it difficult to produce their skeleton because ocean acidification decreases calcium carbonate saturation and accompanying hypercapnia suppresses metabolism. However, this may be buffered by enhanced growth and metabolism due to warming. Methodology/Principal Findings We examined the interactive effects of near-future ocean warming and increased acidification/P CO2 on larval development in the tropical sea urchin Tripneustes gratilla. Larvae were reared in multifactorial experiments in flow-through conditions in all combinations of three temperature and three pH/P CO2 treatments. Experiments were placed in the setting of projected near future conditions for SE Australia, a global change hot spot. Increased acidity/P CO2 and decreased carbonate mineral saturation significantly reduced larval growth resulting in decreased skeletal length. Increased temperature (+3°C) stimulated growth, producing significantly bigger larvae across all pH/P CO2 treatments up to a thermal threshold (+6°C). Increased acidity (-0.3-0.5 pH units) and hypercapnia significantly reduced larval calcification. A +3°C warming diminished the negative effects of acidification and hypercapnia on larval growth. Conclusions and Significance This study of the effects of ocean warming and CO2 driven acidification on development and calcification of marine invertebrate larvae reared in experimental conditions from the outset of development (fertilization) shows the positive and negative effects of these stressors. In simultaneous exposure to stressors the dwarfing effects of acidification were dominant. Reduction in size of sea urchin larvae in a high P CO2 ocean would likely impair their performance with negative consequent effects for benthic adult populations. PMID:20613879

Competition and drought limit the response of water-use efficiency to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide in the Mediterranean fir Abies pinsapo.

PubMed

Linares, Juan-Carlos; Delgado-Huertas, Antonio; Julio Camarero, J; Merino, José; Carreira, José A

2009-09-01

The gas-exchange and radial growth responses of conifer forests to climatic warming and increasing atmospheric CO2 have been widely studied. However, the modulating effects of variables related to stand structure (e.g., tree-to-tree competition) on those responses are poorly explored. The basal-area increment (BAI) and C isotope discrimination (C stable isotope ratio; delta13C) in the Mediterranean fir Abies pinsapo were investigated to elucidate the influences of stand competition, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate on intrinsic water-use efficiency (WUEi). We assessed the variation in delta13C of tree-rings from dominant or co-dominant trees subjected to different degrees of competition. A high- (H) and a low-elevation (L) population with contrasting climatic constraints were studied in southern Spain. Both populations showed an increase in long-term WUEi. However, this increase occurred more slowly at the L site, where a decline of BAI was also observed. Local warming and severe droughts have occurred in the study area over the past 30 years, which have reduced water availability more at lower elevations. Contrastingly, trees from the H site were able to maintain high BAI values at a lower cost in terms of water consumption. In each population, trees subjected to a higher degree of competition by neighboring trees showed lower BAI and WUEi than those subjected to less competition, although the slopes of the temporal trends in WUEi were independent of the competitive micro-environment experienced by the trees. The results are consistent with an increasing drought-induced limitation of BAI and a decreasing rate of WUEi improvement in low-elevation A. pinsapo forests. This relict species might not be able to mitigate the negative effects of a decrease in water availability through a reduction in stomatal conductance, thus leading to a growth decline in the more xeric sites. An intense and poorly asymmetric competitive environment at the stand level may also act as an important constraint on the adaptive capacity of these drought-sensitive forests to climatic warming.

Role of Tropical Atlantic SST Variability as a Modulator of El Nino Teleconnections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Sung, Mi-Kyung; An, Soon-II; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Kug, Jong-Seong

2014-01-01

The present study suggests that the off-equatorial North Atlantic (NATL) SST warming plays a significant role in modulating El Niño teleconnection and its impact on the North Atlantic and European regions. The El Niño events accompanied by NATL SST warming exhibit south-north dipole pattern over the Western Europe to Atlantic, while the ENSO teleconnection pattern without NATL warming exhibits a Rossby wave-like pattern confined over the North Pacific and western Atlantic. Especially, the El Niño events with NATL warming show positive (negative) geopotential-height anomalies over the North Atlantic (Western Europe) which resemble the negative phase of the NAO. Consistently, it is shown using a simple statistical model that NATL SSTA in addition to the tropical Pacific SSTA leads to better prediction on regional climate variation over the North Atlantic and European regions. This role of NATL SST on ENSO teleconnection is also validated and discussed in a long term simulation of coupled global circulation model (CGCM).

Seasonal flows on warm Martian slopes

USGS Publications Warehouse

McEwen, Alfred S.; Ojha, Lujendra; Dundas, Colin M.; Mattson, Sarah S.; Byrne, Shane; Wray, James J.; Cull, Selby C.; Murchie, Scott L.; Thomas, Nicolas; Gulick, Virginia C.

2011-01-01

Water probably flowed across ancient Mars, but whether it ever exists as a liquid on the surface today remains debatable. Recurring slope lineae (RSL) are narrow (0.5 to 5 meters), relatively dark markings on steep (25° to 40°) slopes; repeat images from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment show them to appear and incrementally grow during warm seasons and fade in cold seasons. They extend downslope from bedrock outcrops, often associated with small channels, and hundreds of them form in some rare locations. RSL appear and lengthen in the late southern spring and summer from 48°S to 32°S latitudes favoring equator-facing slopes, which are times and places with peak surface temperatures from ~250 to 300 kelvin. Liquid brines near the surface might explain this activity, but the exact mechanism and source of water are not understood.

Seasonal flows on warm Martian slopes.

PubMed

McEwen, Alfred S; Ojha, Lujendra; Dundas, Colin M; Mattson, Sarah S; Byrne, Shane; Wray, James J; Cull, Selby C; Murchie, Scott L; Thomas, Nicolas; Gulick, Virginia C

2011-08-05

Water probably flowed across ancient Mars, but whether it ever exists as a liquid on the surface today remains debatable. Recurring slope lineae (RSL) are narrow (0.5 to 5 meters), relatively dark markings on steep (25° to 40°) slopes; repeat images from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment show them to appear and incrementally grow during warm seasons and fade in cold seasons. They extend downslope from bedrock outcrops, often associated with small channels, and hundreds of them form in some rare locations. RSL appear and lengthen in the late southern spring and summer from 48°S to 32°S latitudes favoring equator-facing slopes, which are times and places with peak surface temperatures from ~250 to 300 kelvin. Liquid brines near the surface might explain this activity, but the exact mechanism and source of water are not understood.

Explication of Interspousal Criticality Bias

PubMed Central

Peterson, Kristina M.; Smith, David A.; Windle, Chaunce R.

2009-01-01

Although bias towards perceiving spousal criticism is related to dysphoria and marital discord (Smith & Peterson, 2008), the bias construct has received insufficient elaboration. We explicated the criticality bias construct by exploring its correlates and incremental validity relative to perceived criticism, marital attributions, and negative affect. 118 couples completed self-report measures and undertook a videotaped discussion task. Signal detection analyses of both spouses’ and outside observers’ ratings of discussions produced bias indices. Criticality bias evidenced a pattern of convergent and discriminant validity mirroring perceived criticism’s (Renshaw, 2008). Bias also provided incremental validity beyond perceived criticism, marital attributions, and negative affect to the prediction of behavior. Bias may be a dysfunctional way to view marital events and a stress generation process. PMID:19286167

Diurnal and seasonal changes in stem increment and water use by yellow poplar trees in response to environmental stress.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Samuel B; Wullschleger, Stan D; Nosal, Miloslav

2003-11-01

To evaluate indicators of whole-tree physiological responses to climate stress, we determined seasonal, daily and diurnal patterns of growth and water use in 10 yellow poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera L.) trees in a stand recently released from competition. Precise measurements of stem increment and sap flow made with automated electronic dendrometers and thermal dissipation probes, respectively, indicated close temporal linkages between water use and patterns of stem shrinkage and swelling during daily cycles of water depletion and recharge of extensible outer-stem tissues. These cycles also determined net daily basal area increment. Multivariate regression models based on a 123-day data series showed that daily diameter increments were related negatively to vapor pressure deficit (VPD), but positively to precipitation and temperature. The same model form with slight changes in coefficients yielded coefficients of determination of about 0.62 (0.57-0.66) across data subsets that included widely variable growth rates and VPDs. Model R2 was improved to 0.75 by using 3-day running mean daily growth data. Rapid recovery of stem diameter growth following short-term, diurnal reductions in VPD indicated that water stored in extensible stem tissues was part of a fast recharge system that limited hydration changes in the cambial zone during periods of water stress. There were substantial differences in the seasonal dynamics of growth among individual trees, and analyses indicated that faster-growing trees were more positively affected by precipitation, solar irradiance and temperature and more negatively affected by high VPD than slower-growing trees. There were no negative effects of ozone on daily growth rates in a year of low ozone concentrations.

Experimental warming decreases arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal colonization in prairie plants along a Mediterranean climate gradient.

PubMed

Wilson, Hannah; Johnson, Bart R; Bohannan, Brendan; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Mueller, Rebecca; Bridgham, Scott D

2016-01-01

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) provide numerous services to their plant symbionts. Understanding climate change effects on AMF, and the resulting plant responses, is crucial for predicting ecosystem responses at regional and global scales. We investigated how the effects of climate change on AMF-plant symbioses are mediated by soil water availability, soil nutrient availability, and vegetation dynamics. We used a combination of a greenhouse experiment and a manipulative climate change experiment embedded within a Mediterranean climate gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA to examine this question. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to determine the direct and indirect effects of experimental warming on AMF colonization. Warming directly decreased AMF colonization across plant species and across the climate gradient of the study region. Other positive and negative indirect effects of warming, mediated by soil water availability, soil nutrient availability, and vegetation dynamics, canceled each other out. A warming-induced decrease in AMF colonization would likely have substantial consequences for plant communities and ecosystem function. Moreover, predicted increases in more intense droughts and heavier rains for this region could shift the balance among indirect causal pathways, and either exacerbate or mitigate the negative, direct effect of increased temperature on AMF colonization.

Application of wavelet analysis in determining the periodicity of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xiao

2018-04-01

In the last two decades of the last century, the global average temperature has risen by 0.48 ° C over 100 years ago. Since then, global warming has become a hot topic. Global warming will have complex and potential impacts on humans and the Earth. However, the negative impacts far outweigh the positive impacts. The most obvious external manifestation of global warming is temperature. Therefore, this study uses wavelet analysis study the characteristics of temperature time series, solve the periodicity of the sequence, find out the trend of temperature change and predict the extent of global warming in the future, so as to take the necessary precautionary measures.

Drivers of climate change impacts on bird communities.

PubMed

Pearce-Higgins, James W; Eglington, Sarah M; Martay, Blaise; Chamberlain, Dan E

2015-07-01

Climate change is reported to have caused widespread changes to species' populations and ecological communities. Warming has been associated with population declines in long-distance migrants and habitat specialists, and increases in southerly distributed species. However, the specific climatic drivers behind these changes remain undescribed. We analysed annual fluctuations in the abundance of 59 breeding bird species in England over 45 years to test the effect of monthly temperature and precipitation means upon population trends. Strong positive correlations between population growth and both winter and breeding season temperature were identified for resident and short-distance migrants. Lagged correlations between population growth and summer temperature and precipitation identified for the first time a widespread negative impact of hot, dry summer weather. Resident populations appeared to increase following wet autumns. Populations of long-distance migrants were negatively affected by May temperature, consistent with a potential negative effect of phenological mismatch upon breeding success. There was evidence for some nonlinear relationships between monthly weather variables and population growth. Habitat specialists and cold-associated species showed consistently more negative effects of higher temperatures than habitat generalists and southerly distributed species associated with warm temperatures. Results suggest that previously reported changes in community composition represent the accumulated effects of spring and summer warming. Long-term population trends were more significantly correlated with species' sensitivity to temperature than precipitation, suggesting that warming has had a greater impact on population trends than changes in precipitation. Months where there had been the greatest warming were the most influential drivers of long-term change. There was also evidence that species with the greatest sensitivity to extremes of precipitation have tended to decline. Our results provide novel insights about the impact of climate change on bird communities. Significant lagged effects highlight the potential for altered species' interactions to drive observed climate change impacts, although some community changes may have been driven by more immediate responses to warming. In England, resident and short-distance migrant populations have increased in response to climate change, but potentially at the expense of long-distance migrants, habitat specialists and cold-associated species. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

On the Accuracy and Parallelism of GPGPU-Powered Incremental Clustering Algorithms.

PubMed

Chen, Chunlei; He, Li; Zhang, Huixiang; Zheng, Hao; Wang, Lei

2017-01-01

Incremental clustering algorithms play a vital role in various applications such as massive data analysis and real-time data processing. Typical application scenarios of incremental clustering raise high demand on computing power of the hardware platform. Parallel computing is a common solution to meet this demand. Moreover, General Purpose Graphic Processing Unit (GPGPU) is a promising parallel computing device. Nevertheless, the incremental clustering algorithm is facing a dilemma between clustering accuracy and parallelism when they are powered by GPGPU. We formally analyzed the cause of this dilemma. First, we formalized concepts relevant to incremental clustering like evolving granularity. Second, we formally proved two theorems. The first theorem proves the relation between clustering accuracy and evolving granularity. Additionally, this theorem analyzes the upper and lower bounds of different-to-same mis-affiliation. Fewer occurrences of such mis-affiliation mean higher accuracy. The second theorem reveals the relation between parallelism and evolving granularity. Smaller work-depth means superior parallelism. Through the proofs, we conclude that accuracy of an incremental clustering algorithm is negatively related to evolving granularity while parallelism is positively related to the granularity. Thus the contradictory relations cause the dilemma. Finally, we validated the relations through a demo algorithm. Experiment results verified theoretical conclusions.

Long-term soil warming and Carbon Cycle Feedbacks to the Climate System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melillo, Jerry M.

2014-04-30

The primary objective of the proposed research was to quantify and explain the effects of a sustained in situ 5oC soil temperature increase on net carbon (C) storage in a northeastern deciduous forest ecosystem. The research was done at an established soil warming experiment at the Harvard Forest in central Massachusetts – Barre Woods site established in 2001. In the field, a series of plant and soil measurements were made to quantify changes in C storage in the ecosystem and to provide insights into the possible relationships between C-storage changes and nitrogen (N) cycling changes in the warmed plots. Fieldmore » measurements included: 1) annual woody increment; 2) litterfall; 3) carbon dioxide (CO2) efflux from the soil surface; 4) root biomass and respiration; 5) microbial biomass; and 6) net N mineralization and net nitrification rates. This research was designed to increase our understanding of how global warming will affect the capacity of temperate forest ecosystems to store C. The work explored how soil warming changes the interactions between the C and N cycles, and how these changes affect land-atmosphere feedbacks. This core research question framed the project – What are the effects of a sustained in situ 5oC soil temperature increase on net carbon (C) storage in a northeastern deciduous forest ecosystem? A second critical question was addressed in this research – What are the effects of a sustained in situ 5{degrees}C soil temperature increase on nitrogen (N) cycling in a northeastern deciduous forest ecosystem?« less

Topography and age mediate the growth responses of Smith fir to climate warming in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, B.; Wang, Y.; Zhu, H.; Liang, E.; Camarero, J. J.

2016-10-01

The Tibetan Plateau holds some of the world's highest undisturbed natural treelines and timberlines. Such extreme environments constitute potentially valuable monitoring sites of the effects of climate warming on high-elevation forests. Here, we analyze a network of 21 Smith fir forests situated in the Sygera Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau, using tree-ring width (TRW) and basal area increment (BAI) chronologies. Sampled sites encompassed a wide elevation gradient, from 3600 to 4400 m, including some treeline sites and diverse aspects and tree ages. In comparison with TRW series, BAI series better capture the long-term warming signal. Previous November and current April and summer temperatures are the dominant climatic factors controlling Smith fir radial growth. The mean inter-series correlations of TRW increased upwards, but the forest limit presented the highest potential to reconstruct past temperature variability. Moreover, the growth responses of young trees were less stable than those of trees older than 100 years. Climate warming is accelerating radial growth of Smith fir forest subjected to mesic conditions. Collectively, these findings confirm that the effects of site elevation and tree age should be considered when quantifying climate-growth relationships. The type of tree-ring data (BAI vs. TRW) is also relevant since BAI indices seem to be a better climatic proxy of low-frequency temperature signals than TRW indices. Therefore, site (e.g., elevation) and tree (e.g., age) features should be considered to properly evaluate the effects of climate warming on growth of high-elevation forests.

Combined effects of temperature and ocean acidification on the juvenile individuals of the mussel Mytilus chilensis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duarte, C.; Navarro, J. M.; Acuña, K.; Torres, R.; Manríquez, P. H.; Lardies, M. A.; Vargas, C. A.; Lagos, N. A.; Aguilera, V.

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic CO2 emissions have led to increasing global mean temperatures (a process called global warming) and ocean acidification. Because both processes are occurring simultaneously, to better understand their consequences on marine species their combined effects must be experimentally evaluated. The aim of this study was to evaluate for the first time the combined effects of ocean acidification and water temperature increase on the total calcification rate, growth rate and survival of juvenile individuals of the mytilid mussel Mytilus chilensis (Hupe). Two temperature levels (12 and 16 °C) and three nominal CO2 concentrations (390, 700 and 1000 ppm of CO2) were used. We found that the net rate of calcium deposition and total weight were not significantly affected by temperature, but were negatively affected by the levels of CO2. The interactive effects of temperature and CO2 levels affected only the shell dissolution, but this process was not important for the animal's net calcification. These results suggest that individuals of M. chilensis are able to overcome increased temperatures, but not increments of CO2 levels. It is well known that mussels influence their physical and biological surroundings. Therefore, the negative effects of a CO2 increase could have significant ecological consequences, mainly in those habitats where this group is dominant in terms of abundance and biomass. Finally, taking into account that this species inhabit a wide geographic range, with contrasting environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, salinity and, pH), further studies are needed to evaluate the intraspecific variability in the responses of this species to different environmental stressors.

Understanding the effect of an excessive cold tongue bias on projecting the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ying, Jun; Huang, Ping; Lian, Tao; Tan, Hongjian

2018-05-01

An excessive cold tongue is a common bias among current climate models, and considered an important source of bias in projections of tropical Pacific climate change under global warming. Specifically, the excessive cold tongue bias is closely related to the tropical Pacific SST warming (TPSW) pattern. In this study, we reveal that two processes are the critical mechanisms by which the excessive cold tongue bias influences the projection of the TPSW pattern, based on 32 models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP5). On the one hand, by assuming that the shortwave (SW) radiation to SST feedback is linearly correlated to the cold tongue SST, the excessive cold tongue bias can induce an overly weak negative SW-SST feedback in the central Pacific, which can lead to a positive SST warming bias in the central to western Pacific (around 150°E-140°W). Moreover, the overly weak local atmospheric dynamics response to SST is a key process of the overly weak SW-SST feedback, compared with the cloud response to atmospheric dynamics and the SW radiation response to cloud. On the other hand, the overly strong ocean zonal overturning circulation associated with the excessive cold tongue bias results in an overestimation of the ocean dynamical thermostat effect, with enhanced ocean stratification under global warming, leading to a negative SST warming bias in the central and eastern Pacific (around 170°W-120°W). These two processes jointly form a positive SST warming bias in the western Pacific, contributing to a La Niña-like warming bias. Therefore, we suggest a more realistic climatological cold tongue SST is needed for a more reliable projection of the TPSW pattern.

Covariability of seasonal temperature and precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula in high-resolution regional climate simulations (1001-2099)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Montes, S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Rodrigo, F. S.; García-Valero, J. A.; Montávez, J. P.

2017-04-01

Precipitation and surface temperature are interdependent variables, both as a response to atmospheric dynamics and due to intrinsic thermodynamic relationships and feedbacks between them. This study analyzes the covariability of seasonal temperature (T) and precipitation (P) across the Iberian Peninsula (IP) using regional climate paleosimulations for the period 1001-1990, driven by reconstructions of external forcings. Future climate (1990-2099) was simulated according to SRES scenarios A2 and B2. These simulations enable exploring, at high spatial resolution, robust and physically consistent relationships. In winter, positive P-T correlations dominate west-central IP (Pearson correlation coefficient ρ = + 0.43, for 1001-1990), due to prevalent cold-dry and warm-wet conditions, while this relationship weakens and become negative towards mountainous, northern and eastern regions. In autumn, negative correlations appear in similar regions as in winter, whereas for summer they extend also to the N/NW of the IP. In spring, the whole IP depicts significant negative correlations, strongest for eastern regions (ρ = - 0.51). This is due to prevalent frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes in these regions and seasons. At the temporal scale, regional correlation series between seasonal anomalies of temperature and precipitation (assessed in 31 years running windows in 1001-1990) show very large multidecadal variability. For winter and spring, periodicities of about 50-60 years arise. The frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes appears correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), explaining mainly co-variability changes in spring. For winter and some regions in autumn, maximum and minimum P-T correlations appear in periods with enhanced meridional or easterly circulation (low or high pressure anomalies in the Mediterranean and Europe). In spring and summer, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation shows some fingerprint on the frequency of warm/cold modes. For future scenarios, an intensification of the negative P-T relationship is generally found, as a result of an increased frequency of the warm-dry mode.

Quantifying the Negative Feedback of Vegetation to Greenhouse Warming: A Modeling Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounous, L.; Hall, F. G.; Sellers, P. J.; Kumar, A.; Collatz, G. J.; Tucker, C. J.; Imhoff, M. L.

2010-01-01

Several climate models indicate that in a 2 x CO2 environment, temperature and precipitation would increase and runoff would increase faster than precipitation. These models, however, did not allow the vegetation to increase its leaf density as a response to the physiological effects of increased CO2 and consequent changes in climate. Other assessments included these interactions but did not account for the vegetation down-regulation to reduce plant's photosynthetic activity and as such resulted in a weak vegetation negative response. When we combine these interactions in climate simulations with 2 x CO2, the associated increase in precipitation contributes primarily to increase evapotranspiration rather than surface runoff, consistent with observations, and results in an additional cooling effect not fully accounted for in previous simulations with elevated CO2. By accelerating the water cycle, this feedback slows but does not alleviate the projected warming, reducing the land surface warming by 0.6 C. Compared to previous studies, these results imply that long term negative feedback from CO2-induced increases in vegetation density could reduce temperature following a stabilization of CO2 concentration.

Short winters threaten temperate fish populations

PubMed Central

Farmer, Troy M.; Marschall, Elizabeth A.; Dabrowski, Konrad; Ludsin, Stuart A.

2015-01-01

Although climate warming is expected to benefit temperate ectotherms by lengthening the summer growing season, declines in reproductive success following short, warm winters may counter such positive effects. Here we present long-term (1973–2010) field patterns for Lake Erie yellow perch, Perca flavescens, which show that failed annual recruitment events followed short, warm winters. Subsequent laboratory experimentation and field investigations revealed how reduced reproductive success following short, warm winters underlie these observed field patterns. Following short winters, females spawn at warmer temperatures and produce smaller eggs that both hatch at lower rates and produce smaller larvae than females exposed to long winters. Our research suggests that continued climate warming can lead to unanticipated, negative effects on temperate fish populations. PMID:26173734

Heterogeneity in Maltreated and Non-maltreated Preschool Children’s Inhibitory Control: The Interplay Between Parenting Quality and Child Temperament

PubMed Central

Cipriano-Essel, Elizabeth; Skowron, Elizabeth A.; Stifter, Cynthia A.; Teti, Douglas M.

2014-01-01

This study examined the contribution of child temperament, parenting, and their interaction on inhibitory control development in a sample of maltreated and non-maltreated preschool children. One hundred and eighteen mother–child dyads were drawn from predominantly low-income, rural communities. Dyads participated in a laboratory session in which maternal warm autonomy support, warm guidance, and strict/hostile control were observationally coded during a joint teaching task. Independent assessments of children’s inhibitory control were obtained, and observers rated children’s temperament. After relevant covariates, including income, maternal education, and child age and IQ were controlled for, there were no differences between the maltreatment and non-maltreatment groups in either children’s inhibitory control or mothers’ behaviours in the laboratory session. Even after much of the variance in children’s inhibitory control was accounted for from the covariates, children’s temperamental negativity moderated the effects of warm autonomy support on inhibitory control in both maltreatment and non-maltreatment groups. Temperamentally negative children whose mothers displayed more warm autonomy support showed greater inhibitory control, at levels on par with low-negative children. Findings suggest that heterogeneity in children’s self-regulation may be due in part to individual differences in sensitivity to caregiver support for children’s independence, even among those exposed to maltreatment. PMID:24729743

The 'warm' side of coldness: Cold promotes interpersonal warmth in negative contexts.

PubMed

Wei, Wenqi; Ma, Jingjing; Wang, Lei

2015-12-01

The concrete experience of physical warmth has been demonstrated to promote interpersonal warmth. This well-documented link, however, tells only half of the story. In the current study, we thus examined whether physical coldness can also increase interpersonal warmth under certain circumstances. We conducted three experiments to demonstrate that the relationship between the experience of physical temperature and interpersonal outcomes is context dependent. Experiment 1 showed that participants touching cold (vs. warm) objects were more willing to forgive a peer's dishonest behaviour. Experiment 2 demonstrated the fully interactive effect of temperature and context on interpersonal warmth: Participants touching cold (vs. warm) objects were less likely to assist an individual who had provided them with good service (positive social context), but more likely to assist an individual who had provided them with poor service (negative social context). Experiment 3 replicated the results of Experiment 2 using the likelihood to complain, a hostility-related indicator, as the dependent variable: In a pleasant queue (positive social context), participants touching cold objects were more likely to complain and those touching warm objects were less likely to complain compared with the control group. This pattern was reversed in an annoying queue (negative social context). © 2015 The Authors. British Journal of Social Psychology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Psychological Society.

Responses of microbial biomass carbon and nitrogen to experimental warming: a meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, W.; Yuan, W.

2017-12-01

Soil microbes play important roles in regulating terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycling and strongly influence feedbacks of ecosystem to global warming. However, the inconsistent responses of microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and nitrogen (MBN) to experimental warming have been observed, and the response on ratio between MBC and MBN (MBC:MBN) has not been identified. This meta-analysis synthesized the warming experiments at 58 sites globally to investigate the responses of MBC:MBN to climate warming. Our results showed that warming significantly increased MBC by 3.61 ± 0.80% and MBN by 5.85 ± 0.90% and thus decreased the MBC:MBN by 3.34 ± 0.66%. MBC showed positive responses to warming but MBN exhibited negative responses to warming at low warming magnitude (<1°C); however, at high warming magnitude (>2°C) the results were inverted. The different effects of warming magnitude on microbial biomass resulted from the warming-induced decline in soil moisture and substrate supply. Moreover, MBC and MBN had strong positive responses to warming at the mid-term (3-4 years) or short-term (1-2 years) duration, but the responses tended to decrease at long-term (≥ 5 years) warming duration. This study fills the knowledge gap on the responses of MBC:MBN to warming and may benefit the development of coupled carbon and nitrogen models.

Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokinaga, Hiroki; Xie, Shang-Ping; Mukougawa, Hitoshi

2017-06-01

With amplified warming and record sea ice loss, the Arctic is the canary of global warming. The historical Arctic warming is poorly understood, limiting our confidence in model projections. Specifically, Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing. Here, we show that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variability modes is the major driver for the rapid early 20th-century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations successfully reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early 20th-century Arctic warming is associated with positive SST anomalies over the tropical and North Atlantic and a Pacific SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Atmospheric circulation changes are important for the early 20th-century Arctic warming. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air into the North American Arctic. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. Coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, negative-to-positive phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal modes. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region.

Sensitivity of River Runoff in Bhutan to Changes in Precipitation and Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonessa, M. Y.; Nijssen, B.; Dorji, C.; Wangmo, D.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Richey, J. E.

2013-12-01

In the past decades there has been increasing concern about the potential effects of climate change on runoff and water resources all over the world under different conditions. Various studies have indicated that climate change will have an impact on runoff and stream flow. Bhutan is one of the countries in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region which shows more warming than the global average. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, a macroscale hydrological model, was used to assess the hydrology of the country and the potential impacts of climate change on water availability. Precipitation and temperature were perturbed to study the runoff sensitivity to temperature and precipitation changes. The VIC model was run at 1/24° latitude-longitude resolution. The modeled mean annual runoff elasticity which measures fractional change in annual runoff divided by fractional change in annual precipitation ranges from 1.08 to 2.16. The elasticity value is lower for higher reference precipitations and vice versa. The runoff sensitivity to temperature represents the percentage change in annual runoff per 1°C change in temperature. Runoff sensitivities are negative and range from -1.36%/°C to -1.70%/°C. Spatially, both greater elasticity and sensitivity occur towards the northern part of the country where elevation is more than 5000 m above sea level. Based on the coupled model inter-comparison project phase five (CMIP5) average model results, both precipitation and temperature are predicted to increase in Bhutan in the 21st century. Annually, P is expected to increase by 0.45 to 8.7% under RCP4.5 emission scenario and 1.95 to 14.26% under RCP8.5 emission. The mean annual temperature increment ranges from +1.1 to +2.6°C under RCP4.5 and +1.2 to +4.5°C under RCP8.5 emission scenario. These changes in precipitation and temperature are expected to result in runoff changes ranging from -1.0 to +14.3% and +2.2 to +23.1% increments under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, respectively, with the increment getting bigger towards the end of the century. Keywords: Climate change; runoff elasticity; runoff sensitivity; Bhutan.

Climate change enhances the negative effects of predation risk on an intermediate consumer.

PubMed

Miller, Luke P; Matassa, Catherine M; Trussell, Geoffrey C

2014-12-01

Predators are a major source of stress in natural systems because their prey must balance the benefits of feeding with the risk of being eaten. Although this 'fear' of being eaten often drives the organization and dynamics of many natural systems, we know little about how such risk effects will be altered by climate change. Here, we examined the interactive consequences of predator avoidance and projected climate warming in a three-level rocky intertidal food chain. We found that both predation risk and increased air and sea temperatures suppressed the foraging of prey in the middle trophic level, suggesting that warming may further enhance the top-down control of predators on communities. Prey growth efficiency, which measures the efficiency of energy transfer between trophic levels, became negative when prey were subjected to predation risk and warming. Thus, the combined effects of these stressors may represent an important tipping point for individual fitness and the efficiency of energy transfer in natural food chains. In contrast, we detected no adverse effects of warming on the top predator and the basal resources. Hence, the consequences of projected warming may be particularly challenging for intermediate consumers residing in food chains where risk dominates predator-prey interactions. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Warmer winters modulate life history and energy storage but do not affect sensitivity to a widespread pesticide in an aquatic insect.

PubMed

Arambourou, Hélène; Stoks, Robby

2015-10-01

Despite the increased attention for the effects of pesticides under global warming no studies tested how winter warming affects subsequent sensitivity to pesticides. Winter warming is expected to cause delayed negative effects when it increases metabolic rates and thereby depletes energy reserves. Using a common-garden experiment, we investigated the combined effect of a 4 °C increase in winter temperature and subsequent exposure to chlorpyrifos in the aquatic larvae of replicated low- and high-latitude European populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. The warmer winter (8 °C) resulted in a higher winter survival and higher growth rates compared to the cold winter (4 °C) commonly experienced by European high-latitude populations. Low-latitude populations were better at coping with the warmer winter, indicating thermal adaptation to the local winter temperatures. Subsequent chlorpyrifos exposure at 20 °C induced strong negative effects on survival, growth rate, lipid content and acetylcholinesterase activity while phenoloxidase activity increased. These pesticide effects were not affected by winter warming. Our results suggest that for species where winter warming has positive effects on life history, no delayed effects on the sensitivity to subsequent pesticide exposure should be expected. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How Can Evolution Learn?

PubMed

Watson, Richard A; Szathmáry, Eörs

2016-02-01

The theory of evolution links random variation and selection to incremental adaptation. In a different intellectual domain, learning theory links incremental adaptation (e.g., from positive and/or negative reinforcement) to intelligent behaviour. Specifically, learning theory explains how incremental adaptation can acquire knowledge from past experience and use it to direct future behaviours toward favourable outcomes. Until recently such cognitive learning seemed irrelevant to the 'uninformed' process of evolution. In our opinion, however, new results formally linking evolutionary processes to the principles of learning might provide solutions to several evolutionary puzzles - the evolution of evolvability, the evolution of ecological organisation, and evolutionary transitions in individuality. If so, the ability for evolution to learn might explain how it produces such apparently intelligent designs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of different climate change regimes and extreme climatic events on an alpine meadow community

PubMed Central

Alatalo, Juha M.; Jägerbrand, Annika K.; Molau, Ulf

2016-01-01

Climate variability is expected to increase in future but there exist very few experimental studies that apply different warming regimes on plant communities over several years. We studied an alpine meadow community under three warming regimes over three years. Treatments consisted of (a) a constant level of warming with open-top chambers (ca. 1.9 °C above ambient), (b) yearly stepwise increases in warming (increases of ca. 1.0, 1.9 and 3.5 °C), and (c) pulse warming, a single first-year pulse event of warming (increase of ca. 3.5 °C). Pulse warming and stepwise warming was hypothesised to cause distinct first-year and third-year effects, respectively. We found support for both hypotheses; however, the responses varied among measurement levels (whole community, canopy, bottom layer, and plant functional groups), treatments, and time. Our study revealed complex responses of the alpine plant community to the different experimentally imposed climate warming regimes. Plant cover, height and biomass frequently responded distinctly to the constant level of warming, the stepwise increase in warming and the extreme pulse-warming event. Notably, we found that stepwise warming had an accumulating effect on biomass, the responses to the different warming regimes varied among functional groups, and the short-term perturbations had negative effect on species richness and diversity PMID:26888225

Response of a Habitat-Forming Marine Plant to a Simulated Warming Event Is Delayed, Genotype Specific, and Varies with Phenology

PubMed Central

Reynolds, Laura K.; DuBois, Katherine; Abbott, Jessica M.; Williams, Susan L.; Stachowicz, John J.

2016-01-01

Growing evidence shows that increasing global temperature causes population declines and latitudinal shifts in geographical distribution for plants living near their thermal limits. Yet, even populations living well within established thermal limits of a species may suffer as the frequency and intensity of warming events increase with climate change. Adaptive response to this stress at the population level depends on the presence of genetic variation in thermal tolerance in the populations in question, yet few data exist to evaluate this. In this study, we examined the immediate effects of a moderate warming event of 4.5°C lasting 5 weeks and the legacy effects after a 5 week recovery on different genotypes of the marine plant Zostera marina (eelgrass). We conducted the experiment in Bodega Bay, CA USA, where average summer water temperatures are 14–15°C, but extended warming periods of 17–18°C occur episodically. Experimental warming increased shoot production by 14% compared to controls held at ambient temperature. However, after returning temperature to ambient levels, we found strongly negative, delayed effects of warming on production: shoot production declined by 27% and total biomass decreased by 50% relative to individuals that had not been warmed. While all genotypes’ production decreased in the recovery phase, genotypes that grew the most rapidly under benign thermal conditions (control) were the most susceptible to the detrimental effects of warming. This suggests a potential tradeoff in relative performance at normal vs. elevated temperatures. Modest short-term increases in water temperature have potentially prolonged negative effects within the species’ thermal envelope, but genetic variation within these populations may allow for population persistence and adaptation. Further, intraspecific variation in phenology can result in maintenance of population diversity and lead to enhanced production in diverse stands given sufficient frequency of warming or other stress events. PMID:27258011

Response of a Habitat-Forming Marine Plant to a Simulated Warming Event Is Delayed, Genotype Specific, and Varies with Phenology.

PubMed

Reynolds, Laura K; DuBois, Katherine; Abbott, Jessica M; Williams, Susan L; Stachowicz, John J

2016-01-01

Growing evidence shows that increasing global temperature causes population declines and latitudinal shifts in geographical distribution for plants living near their thermal limits. Yet, even populations living well within established thermal limits of a species may suffer as the frequency and intensity of warming events increase with climate change. Adaptive response to this stress at the population level depends on the presence of genetic variation in thermal tolerance in the populations in question, yet few data exist to evaluate this. In this study, we examined the immediate effects of a moderate warming event of 4.5°C lasting 5 weeks and the legacy effects after a 5 week recovery on different genotypes of the marine plant Zostera marina (eelgrass). We conducted the experiment in Bodega Bay, CA USA, where average summer water temperatures are 14-15°C, but extended warming periods of 17-18°C occur episodically. Experimental warming increased shoot production by 14% compared to controls held at ambient temperature. However, after returning temperature to ambient levels, we found strongly negative, delayed effects of warming on production: shoot production declined by 27% and total biomass decreased by 50% relative to individuals that had not been warmed. While all genotypes' production decreased in the recovery phase, genotypes that grew the most rapidly under benign thermal conditions (control) were the most susceptible to the detrimental effects of warming. This suggests a potential tradeoff in relative performance at normal vs. elevated temperatures. Modest short-term increases in water temperature have potentially prolonged negative effects within the species' thermal envelope, but genetic variation within these populations may allow for population persistence and adaptation. Further, intraspecific variation in phenology can result in maintenance of population diversity and lead to enhanced production in diverse stands given sufficient frequency of warming or other stress events.

Warm Handoff Versus Fax Referral for Linking Hospitalized Smokers to Quitlines.

PubMed

Richter, Kimber P; Faseru, Babalola; Shireman, Theresa I; Mussulman, Laura M; Nazir, Niaman; Bush, Terry; Scheuermann, Taneisha S; Preacher, Kristopher J; Carlini, Beatriz H; Magnusson, Brooke; Ellerbeck, Edward F; Cramer, Carol; Cook, David J; Martell, Mary J

2016-10-01

Few hospitals treat patients' tobacco dependence. To be effective, hospital-initiated cessation interventions must provide at least 1 month of supportive contact post-discharge. Individually randomized clinical trial. Recruitment commenced July 2011; analyses were conducted October 2014-June 2015. The study was conducted in two large Midwestern hospitals. Participants included smokers who were aged ≥18 years, planned to stay quit after discharge, and spoke English or Spanish. Hospital-based cessation counselors delivered the intervention. For patients randomized to warm handoff, staff immediately called the quitline from the bedside and handed the phone to participants for enrollment and counseling. Participants randomized to fax were referred on the day of hospital discharge. Outcomes at 6 months included quitline enrollment/adherence, medication use, biochemically verified cessation, and cost effectiveness. Significantly more warm handoff than fax participants enrolled in quitline (99.6% vs 59.6%; relative risk, 1.67; 95% CI=1.65, 1.68). One in four (25.4% warm handoff, 25.3% fax) were verified to be abstinent at 6-month follow-up; this did not differ significantly between groups (relative risk, 1.02; 95% CI=0.82, 1.24). Cessation medication use in the hospital and receipt of a prescription for medication at discharge did not differ between groups; however, significantly more fax participants reported using cessation medication post-discharge (32% vs 25%, p=0.01). The average incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of enrolling participants into warm handoff was $0.14. Hospital-borne costs were significantly lower in warm handoff than in fax ($5.77 vs $9.41, p<0.001). One in four inpatient smokers referred to quitline by either method were abstinent at 6 months post-discharge. Among motivated smokers, fax referral and warm handoff are efficient and comparatively effective ways to link smokers with evidence-based care. For hospitals, warm handoff is a less expensive and more effective method for enrolling smokers in quitline services. Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulated global change: contrasting short and medium term growth and reproductive responses of a common alpine/Arctic cushion plant to experimental warming and nutrient enhancement.

PubMed

Alatalo, Juha M; Little, Chelsea J

2014-01-01

Cushion plants are important components of alpine and Arctic plant communities around the world. They fulfill important roles as facilitators, nurse plants and foundation species across trophic levels for vascular plants, arthropods and soil microorganisms, the importance of these functions increasing with the relative severity of the environment. Here we report results from one of the few experimental studies simulating global change impacts on cushion plants; a factorial experiment with warming and nutrient enhancement that was applied to an alpine population of the common nurse plant, Silene acaulis, in sub-arctic Sweden. Experimental perturbations had significant short-term impacts on both stem elongation and leaf length. S. acaulis responded quickly by increasing stem elongation and (to a lesser extent) leaf length in the warming, nutrient, and the combined warming and nutrient enhancements. Cover and biomass also initially increased in response to the perturbations. However, after the initial positive short-term responses, S. acaulis cover declined in the manipulations, with the nutrient and combined warming and nutrient treatments having largest negative impact. No clear patterns were found for fruit production. Our results show that S. acaulis living in harsh environments has potential to react quickly when experiencing years with favorable conditions, and is more responsive to nutrient enhancement than to warming in terms of vegetative growth. While these conditions have an initial positive impact, populations experiencing longer-term increased nutrient levels will likely be negatively affected.

On the Accuracy and Parallelism of GPGPU-Powered Incremental Clustering Algorithms

PubMed Central

He, Li; Zheng, Hao; Wang, Lei

2017-01-01

Incremental clustering algorithms play a vital role in various applications such as massive data analysis and real-time data processing. Typical application scenarios of incremental clustering raise high demand on computing power of the hardware platform. Parallel computing is a common solution to meet this demand. Moreover, General Purpose Graphic Processing Unit (GPGPU) is a promising parallel computing device. Nevertheless, the incremental clustering algorithm is facing a dilemma between clustering accuracy and parallelism when they are powered by GPGPU. We formally analyzed the cause of this dilemma. First, we formalized concepts relevant to incremental clustering like evolving granularity. Second, we formally proved two theorems. The first theorem proves the relation between clustering accuracy and evolving granularity. Additionally, this theorem analyzes the upper and lower bounds of different-to-same mis-affiliation. Fewer occurrences of such mis-affiliation mean higher accuracy. The second theorem reveals the relation between parallelism and evolving granularity. Smaller work-depth means superior parallelism. Through the proofs, we conclude that accuracy of an incremental clustering algorithm is negatively related to evolving granularity while parallelism is positively related to the granularity. Thus the contradictory relations cause the dilemma. Finally, we validated the relations through a demo algorithm. Experiment results verified theoretical conclusions. PMID:29123546

Suppressed midlatitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qigang; Cheng, Luyao; Chan, Duo; Yao, Yonghong; Hu, Haibo; Yao, Ying

2016-03-01

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heat waves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH midlatitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation(AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH midlatitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

More losers than winners in a century of future Southern Ocean seafloor warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, Huw J.; Meijers, Andrew J. S.; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.

2017-10-01

The waters of the Southern Ocean are projected to warm over the coming century, with potential adverse consequences for native cold-adapted organisms. Warming waters have caused temperate marine species to shift their ranges poleward. The seafloor animals of the Southern Ocean shelf have long been isolated by the deep ocean surrounding Antarctica and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with little scope for southward migration. How these largely endemic species will react to future projected warming is unknown. By considering 963 invertebrate species, we show that within the current century, warming temperatures alone are unlikely to result in wholesale extinction or invasion affecting Antarctic seafloor life. However, 79% of Antarctica's endemic species do face a significant reduction in suitable temperature habitat (an average 12% reduction). Our findings highlight the species and regions most likely to respond significantly (negatively and positively) to warming and have important implications for future management of the region.

Sulfur Speciation in Peat: a Time-zero Signature for the " Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climate and Environmental Change" Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furman, O.; Toner, B. M.; Sebestyen, S. D.; Kolka, R. K.; Nater, E. A.

2014-12-01

As part of the "Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climate and Environmental Change" (SPRUCE) experiment, we made initial measurements of sulfur speciation in peat. These observations represent a "time-zero" relative to the intended soil warming experiment which begins in 2015. Total sulfur and sulfur speciation were measured in peat cores (solid phase) from nine plots (hollows and hummocks) to a depth of 2 m. Peat samples were packed under nitrogen and frozen in the field immediately after collection. All subsequent sample storage, handling, and processing were conducted under inert gas. Sulfur speciation was measured using bulk sulfur 1s X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy at the SXRMB instrument at the Canadian Light Source, Saskatoon, SK, Canada and at the 9-BM instrument, Advanced Photon Source, Argonne National Laboratory, IL, USA. Total sulfur concentrations ranged from 968 to 4077 mg sulfur / kg dry peat. Sulfur content increased with depth from 2 g sulfur / m2 in the 0-10 cm increment to a maximum value of 38 g sulfur / m2 in the 50-60 cm increment. These sulfur loadings produced high quality XANES spectra. The nine cores exhibited reproducible trends with depth in both total sulfur and specific sulfur species; however, variability in sulfur speciation was greatest in the top 40 cm. All sulfur detected within the peat solids was in an organic form. The most abundant sulfur species group was composed of organic mono-sulfide and thiol forms, representing approximately half of the total sulfur at all depths. Sulfonate and ester-sulfate species were 10-15 mol% of sulfur and exhibited low variability with depth. A subsurface maximum in organic di-sulfide was observed in the 20-30 cm depth increment, which is the transition zone between transiently oxidized acrotelm and permanently saturated anaerobic catotelm. Quantification of major sulfur pools is important for the SPRUCE experiment as they are likely to be indicators of changes in the oxidation-reduction (redox) status, and mercury methylation potential, of the peat in response to warming and enhanced carbon dioxide.

The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Boden, Tom; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe; Le Quéré, Corinne; Marland, Gregg; Raupach, Michael R.; Wilson, Charlie

2013-01-01

The latest carbon dioxide emissions continue to track the high end of emission scenarios, making it even less likely global warming will stay below 2 °C. A shift to a 2 °C pathway requires immediate significant and sustained global mitigation, with a probable reliance on net negative emissions in the longer term.

Perennial warm-season grasses for producing biofuel and enhancing soil properties: an alternative to corn residue removal

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Removal of corn (Zea mays L.) residues at high rates for biofuel and other off-farm uses may negatively impact soil and the environment in the long term. Biomass removal from perennial warm-season grasses (WSGs) grown in marginally productive lands could be an alternative to corn residue removal as ...

Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability

PubMed Central

Tokinaga, Hiroki; Xie, Shang-Ping; Mukougawa, Hitoshi

2017-01-01

With amplified warming and record sea ice loss, the Arctic is the canary of global warming. The historical Arctic warming is poorly understood, limiting our confidence in model projections. Specifically, Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing. Here, we show that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variability modes is the major driver for the rapid early 20th-century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations successfully reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early 20th-century Arctic warming is associated with positive SST anomalies over the tropical and North Atlantic and a Pacific SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Atmospheric circulation changes are important for the early 20th-century Arctic warming. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air into the North American Arctic. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. Coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, negative-to-positive phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal modes. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region. PMID:28559341

Tropical Pacific variability as a key pacemaker of the global warming staircase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosaka, Y.; Xie, S. P.

2016-12-01

Global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has increased since the 19th century with notable interdecadal accelerations and slowdowns, forming the global-warming "staircase". The last step of this staircase is the surface warming slowdown since the late 1990s, for which the transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) from a positive to negative state has been suggested as the leading mechanism. To examine the role of IPO in the entire warming staircase, a long pacemaker experiment is performed with a coupled climate model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution since the late 19th century. The pacemaker experiment successfully reproduces the staircase-like global warming remarkably well since 1900. Without the tropical Pacific effect, the same model produces a continual warming from the 1900s to the 1960 followed by rapid warming. The successful reproduction identifies the tropical Pacific decadal variability as a key pacemaker of the GMST staircase. We further propose a method to remove internal variability from observed GMST changes for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.

Decadal prediction skill using a high-resolution climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Coquart, Laure; Maisonnave, Éric; Moine, Marie-Pierre; Terray, Laurent; Valcke, Sophie

2017-11-01

The ability of a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (with a horizontal resolution of a quarter of a degree in the ocean and of about 0.5° in the atmosphere) to predict the annual means of temperature, precipitation, sea-ice volume and extent is assessed based on initialized hindcasts over the 1993-2009 period. Significant skill in predicting sea surface temperatures is obtained, especially over the North Atlantic, the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean. The Sea Ice Extent and volume are also reasonably predicted in winter (March) and summer (September). The model skill is mainly due to the external forcing associated with well-mixed greenhouse gases. A decrease in the global warming rate associated with a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is simulated by the model over a suite of 10-year periods when initialized from starting dates between 1999 and 2003. The model ability to predict regional change is investigated by focusing on the mid-90's Atlantic Ocean subpolar gyre warming. The model simulates the North Atlantic warming associated with a meridional heat transport increase, a strengthening of the North Atlantic current and a deepening of the mixed layer over the Labrador Sea. The atmosphere plays a role in the warming through a modulation of the North Atlantic Oscillation: a negative sea level pressure anomaly, located south of the subpolar gyre is associated with a wind speed decrease over the subpolar gyre. This leads to a reduced oceanic heat-loss and favors a northward displacement of anomalously warm and salty subtropical water that both concur to the subpolar gyre warming. We finally conclude that the subpolar gyre warming is mainly triggered by ocean dynamics with a possible contribution of atmospheric circulation favoring its persistence.

Mindfulness-Based Acceptance and Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms among Trauma-Exposed Adults without Axis I Psychopathology

PubMed Central

Vujanovic, Anka A.; Youngwirth, Nicole E.; Johnson, Kirsten A.; Zvolensky, Michael J.

2009-01-01

The present investigation examined the incremental predictive validity of mindfulness-based processes, indexed by the Kentucky Inventory of Mindfulness Skills, in relation to posttraumatic stress symptom severity among individuals without any axis I psychopathology. Participants included 239 adults who endorsed exposure to traumatic life events. Results indicated that the Accepting without Judgment subscale was significantly incrementally associated with posttraumatic stress symptoms; effects were above and beyond the variance accounted for by negative affectivity and number of trauma types experienced. The Acting with Awareness subscale was incrementally associated with only posttraumatic stress-relevant re-experiencing symptoms; and no other mindfulness factors were related to the dependent measures. Findings are discussed in relation to extant empirical and theoretical work relevant to mindfulness and posttraumatic stress. PMID:18834701

Role of Atmospheric Transport on the Arctic Amplification: Adjusting Role

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KUG, J.; Yim, B.; Jin, F.

2013-12-01

It is controversial whether the atmospheric transport plays a role in arctic amplification. Recently, Hwang et al. (2011) showed that the magnitude of the arctic amplification is negatively correlated with anomalous poleward atmospheric transport. That is, when the arctic amplification is strong (weak), the atmospheric transport plays a negative (positive) role in the arctic amplification. In this study, it is discussed what is a physical mechanism to determine the role of atmospheric transport and relation with the arctic amplification. Here, we suggest adjusting roles of atmospheric transport. The strength of local feedback over the Arctic determines zonal wind changes. The zonal wind changes are determined by two factors. The first one is polar cap cooling, and second is surface warming. They play opposite roles. So, there will be two different zonal wind responses in high-latitude to the greenhouse warming. Depending on the zonal wind response, the atmospheric transport can play a different role because the zonal wind changes can organize synoptic eddy feedbacks including heat flux, which largely contributes to poleward energy transport. We show here that when polar cap cooling is strong, and surface warming over Arctic is relatively weak, the Jet stream tends to be shifted poleward, so it leads to poleward atmospheric transport. On the other hand, when the surface warming is too strong, it lead to southward shift of Jet stream and equatorward atmospheric transport, which paly a negative role in the Arctic amplification.

Effects of experimental throughfall reduction and soil warming on fine root biomass and its decomposition in a warm temperate oak forest.

PubMed

Liu, Yanchun; Liu, Shirong; Wan, Shiqiang; Wang, Jingxin; Wang, Hui; Liu, Kuan

2017-01-01

Fine root dynamics play a critical role in regulating carbon (C) cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. Examining responses of fine root biomass and its decomposition to altered precipitation pattern and climate warming is crucial to understand terrestrial C dynamics and its feedback to climate change. Fine root biomass and its decomposition rate were investigated in a warm temperate oak forest through a field manipulation experiment with throughfall reduction and soil warming conducted. Throughfall reduction significantly interacted with soil warming in affecting fine root biomass and its decomposition. Throughfall reduction substantially increased fine root biomass and its decomposition in unheated plots, but negative effects occurred in warmed plots. Soil warming significantly enhanced fine root biomass and its decomposition under ambient precipitation, but the opposite effects exhibited under throughfall reduction. Different responses in fine root biomass among different treatments could be largely attributed to soil total nitrogen (N), while fine root decomposition rate was more depended on microbial biomass C and N. Our observations indicate that decreased precipitation may offset the positive effect of soil warming on fine root biomass and decomposition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The capacity to cope with climate warming declines from temperate to tropical latitudes in two widely distributed Eucalyptus species.

PubMed

Drake, John E; Aspinwall, Michael J; Pfautsch, Sebastian; Rymer, Paul D; Reich, Peter B; Smith, Renee A; Crous, Kristine Y; Tissue, David T; Ghannoum, Oula; Tjoelker, Mark G

2015-01-01

As rapid climate warming creates a mismatch between forest trees and their home environment, the ability of trees to cope with warming depends on their capacity to physiologically adjust to higher temperatures. In widespread species, individual trees in cooler home climates are hypothesized to more successfully acclimate to warming than their counterparts in warmer climates that may approach thermal limits. We tested this prediction with a climate-shift experiment in widely distributed Eucalyptus tereticornis and E. grandis using provenances originating along a ~2500 km latitudinal transect (15.5-38.0°S) in eastern Australia. We grew 21 provenances in conditions approximating summer temperatures at seed origin and warmed temperatures (+3.5 °C) using a series of climate-controlled glasshouse bays. The effects of +3.5 °C warming strongly depended on home climate. Cool-origin provenances responded to warming through an increase in photosynthetic capacity and total leaf area, leading to enhanced growth of 20-60%. Warm-origin provenances, however, responded to warming through a reduction in photosynthetic capacity and total leaf area, leading to reduced growth of approximately 10%. These results suggest that there is predictable intraspecific variation in the capacity of trees to respond to warming; cool-origin taxa are likely to benefit from warming, while warm-origin taxa may be negatively affected. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Stable Water Use Efficiency under Climate Change of Three Sympatric Conifer Species at the Alpine Treeline.

PubMed

Wieser, Gerhard; Oberhuber, Walter; Gruber, Andreas; Leo, Marco; Matyssek, Rainer; Grams, Thorsten Erhard Edgar

2016-01-01

The ability of treeline associated conifers in the Central Alps to cope with recent climate warming and increasing CO2 concentration is still poorly understood. We determined tree ring stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of Pinus cembra, Picea abies, and Larix decidua trees from 1975 to 2010. Stable isotope ratios were compared with leaf level gas exchange measurements carried out in situ between 1979 and 2007. Results indicate that tree ring derived intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) of P. cembra, P. abies and L. decidua remained constant during the last 36 years despite climate warming and rising atmospheric CO2. Temporal patterns in Δ(13)C and Δ(18)O mirrored leaf level gas exchange assessments, suggesting parallel increases of CO2-fixation and stomatal conductance of treeline conifer species. As at the study site soil water availability was not a limiting factor iWUE remained largely stable throughout the study period. The stability in iWUE was accompanied by an increase in basal area increment (BAI) suggesting that treeline trees benefit from both recent climate warming and CO2 fertilization. Finally, our results suggest that iWUE may not change species composition at treeline in the Austrian Alps due to similar ecophysiological responses to climatic changes of the three sympatric study species.

Diagnostic performance of smear microscopy and incremental yield of Xpert in detection of pulmonary tuberculosis in Rwanda.

PubMed

Ngabonziza, Jean Claude Semuto; Ssengooba, Willy; Mutua, Florence; Torrea, Gabriela; Dushime, Augustin; Gasana, Michel; Andre, Emmanuel; Uwamungu, Schifra; Nyaruhirira, Alaine Umubyeyi; Mwaengo, Dufton; Muvunyi, Claude Mambo

2016-11-08

Tuberculosis control program of Rwanda is currently phasing in light emitting diode-fluorescent microscopy (LED-FM) as an alternative to Ziehl-Neelsen (ZN) smear microscopy. This, alongside the newly introduced Xpert (Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA, USA) is expected to improve diagnosis of tuberculosis and detection of rifampicin resistance in patients at health facilities. We assessed the accuracy of smear microscopy and the incremental sensitivity of Xpert at tuberculosis laboratories in Rwanda. This was a cross-sectional study involving four laboratories performing ZN and four laboratories performing LED-FM microscopy. The laboratories include four intermediate (ILs) and four peripheral (PLs) laboratories. After smear microscopy, the left-over of samples, of a single early-morning sputum from 648 participants, were tested using Xpert and mycobacterial culture as a reference standard. Sensitivity of each test was compared and the incremental sensitivity of Xpert after a negative smear was assessed. A total of 96 presumptive pulmonary tuberculosis participants were culture positive for M. tuberculosis. The overall sensitivity in PL of ZN was 55.1 % (40.2-69.3 %), LED-FM was 37 % (19.4-57.6 %) and Xpert was 77.6 % (66.6-86.4 %) whereas in ILs the same value for ZN was 58.3 % (27.7-84.8 %), LED-FM was 62.5 % (24.5-91.5 %) and Xpert was 90 (68.3-98.8 %). The sensitivity for all tests was significantly higher among HIV-negative individuals (all test p <0.05). The overall incremental sensitivity of Xpert over smear microscopy was 32.3 %; p < 0.0001. The incremental sensitivity of Xpert was statistically significant for both smear methods at PL (32.9 %; p = 0.001) but not at the ILs (30 %; p = 0.125) for both smear methods. Our study findings of the early implementation of the LED-FM did not reveal significant increment in sensitivity compared to the method being phased out (ZN). This study showed a significant incremental sensitivity for Xpert from both smear methods at peripheral centers where majority of TB patients are diagnosed. Overall our findings support the recommendation for Xpert as an initial diagnostic test in adults and children presumed to have TB.

Integrating both interaction pathways between warming and pesticide exposure on upper thermal tolerance in high- and low-latitude populations of an aquatic insect.

PubMed

Op de Beeck, Lin; Verheyen, Julie; Stoks, Robby

2017-05-01

Global warming and chemical pollution are key anthropogenic stressors with the potential to interact. While warming can change the impact of pollutants and pollutants can change the sensitivity to warming, both interaction pathways have never been integrated in a single experiment. Therefore, we tested the effects of warming and multiple pesticide pulses (allowing accumulation) of chlorpyrifos on upper thermal tolerance (CTmax) and associated physiological traits related to aerobic/anaerobic energy production in the damselfly Ischnura elegans. To also assess the role of latitude-specific thermal adaptation in shaping the impact of warming and pesticide exposure on thermal tolerance, we exposed larvae from replicated high- and low-latitude populations to the pesticide in a common garden rearing experiment at 20 and 24 °C, the mean summer water temperatures at high and low latitudes. As expected, exposure to chlorpyrifos resulted in a lower CTmax. Yet, this pesticide effect on CTmax was lower at 24 °C compared to 20 °C because of a lower accumulation of chlorpyrifos in the medium at 24 °C. The effects on CTmax could partly be explained by reduction of the aerobic scope. Given that these effects did not differ between latitudes, gradual thermal evolution is not expected to counteract the negative effect of the pesticide on thermal tolerance. By for the first time integrating both interaction pathways we were not only able to provide support for both of them, but more importantly demonstrate that they can directly affect each other. Indeed, the warming-induced reduction in pesticide impact generated a lower pesticide-induced climate change sensitivity (in terms of decreased upper thermal tolerance). Our results indicate that, assuming no increase in pesticide input, global warming might reduce the negative effect of multiple pulse exposures to pesticides on sensitivity to elevated temperatures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of warming and nitrogen fertilization on GHG flux in an alpine swamp meadow of a permafrost region.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaopeng; Wang, Genxu; Zhang, Tao; Mao, Tianxu; Wei, Da; Song, Chunlin; Hu, Zhaoyong; Huang, Kewei

2017-12-01

Uncertainties in the seasonal changes of greenhouse gases (GHG) fluxes in wetlands limit our accurate understanding of the responses of permafrost ecosystems to future warming and increased nitrogen (N) deposition. Therefore, in an alpine swamp meadow in the hinterland of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a simulated warming with N fertilization experiment was conducted to investigate the key GHG fluxes (ecosystem respiration [Re], CH 4 and N 2 O) in the early (EG), mid (MG) and late (LG) growing seasons. Results showed that warming (6.2 °C) increased the average seasonal Re by 30.9% and transformed the alpine swamp meadow from a N 2 O sink to a source, whereas CH 4 flux was not significantly affected. N fertilization (4 g N m -2 a -1 ) alone had no significant effect on the fluxes of GHGs. The interaction of warming and N fertilization increased CH 4 uptake by 69.6% and N 2 O emissions by 26.2% compared with warming, whereas the Re was not significantly affected. During the EG, although the soil temperature sensitivity of the Re was the highest, the effect of warming on the Re was the weakest. The primary driving factor for Re was soil surface temperature, whereas soil moisture controlled CH 4 flux, and the N 2 O flux was primarily affected by rain events. The results indicated: (i) increasing N deposition has both positive and negative feedbacks on GHG fluxes in response to climate warming; (ii) during soil thawing process at active layer, low temperature of deep frozen soils have a negative contribution to Re in alpine ecosystems; and (iii) although these alpine wetland ecosystems are buffers against increased temperature, their feedbacks on climate change cannot be ignored because of the large soil organic carbon pool and high temperature sensitivity of the Re. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

When Natural Disaster Follows Economic Downturn: The Incremental Impact of Multiple Stressor Events on Trajectories of Depression and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder.

PubMed

Mandavia, Amar D; Bonanno, George A

2018-04-29

To determine whether there were incremental mental health impacts, specifically on depression trajectories, as a result of the 2008 economic crisis (the Great Recession) and subsequent Hurricane Sandy. Using latent growth mixture modeling and the ORANJ BOWL dataset, we examined prospective trajectories of depression among older adults (mean age, 60.67; SD, 6.86) who were exposed to the 2 events. We also collected community economic and criminal justice data to examine their impact upon depression trajectories. Participants (N=1172) were assessed at 3 times for affect, successful aging, and symptoms of depression. We additionally assessed posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptomology after Hurricane Sandy. We identified 3 prospective trajectories of depression. The majority (83.6%) had no significant change in depression from before to after these events (resilience), while 7.2% of the sample increased in depression incrementally after each event (incremental depression). A third group (9.2%) went from high to low depression symptomology following the 2 events (depressive-improving). Only those in the incremental depression group had significant PTSD symptoms following Hurricane Sandy. We identified a small group of individuals for whom the experience of multiple stressful events had an incremental negative effect on mental health outcomes. These results highlight the importance of understanding the perseveration of depression symptomology from one event to another. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;page 1 of 10).

Gravity and geoid anomalies of the Philippine Sea: Evidence on the depth of compensation for the negative residual water depth anomaly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowin, C.

1982-01-01

A negative free-air gravity anomaly which occurs in the central part of the Philippine Sea was examined to determine the distribution and nature of possible regional mass excesses or deficiencies. Geoid anomalies from GEOS-3 observation were positive. A negative residual geoid anomaly consistent with the area of negative free-air gravity anomalies were found. Theoretical gravity-topography and geoid-topography admittance functions indicated that high density mantle at about 60 km dept could account for the magnitudes of the gravity and residual geoid anomaly and the 1 km residual water depth anomaly in the Philippine Sea. The negative residual depth anomaly may be compensated for by excess density in the uppermost mantle, but the residual geoid and regional free-air gravity anomalies and a slow surface wave velocity structure might result from low-density warm upper mantle material lying beneath the zone of high-density uppermost mantle. From a horizontal disk approximation, the depth of the low-density warm mantle was estimated to be on the order of 200 km.

[Effects of climate warming and drying on millet yield in Gansu Province and related countermeasures].

PubMed

Cao, Ling; Wang, Qiang; Deng, Zhen-yong; Guo, Xiao-qin; Ma, Xing-xiang; Ning, Hui-fang

2010-11-01

Based on the data of air temperature, precipitation, and millet yield from Ganzhou, Anding, and Xifeng, the representative stations in Hexi moderate arid oasis irrigation area, moderate sub-arid dry area in middle Gansu, and moderate sub-humid dry area in eastern Gansu, respectively, this paper calculated the regional active accumulated temperature of > or = 0 degrees C, > or =5 degrees C, > or =10 degrees C, > or =15 degrees C, and > or =20 degrees C in millet growth period, and the average temperature and precipitation in millet key growth stages. The millet climatic yield was isolated by orthogonal polynomial, and the change characteristics of climate and millet climatic yield as well as the effects of climate change on millet yield were analyzed by statistical methods of linear tendency, cumulative anomaly, and Mann-Kendall. The results showed that warming and drying were the main regional features in the modern climatic change of Gansu. The regional temperature had a significant upward trend since the early 1990s, while the precipitation was significantly reduced from the late 1980s. There were significant correlations between millet yield and climatic factors. The millet yield in dry areas increased with the increasing temperature and precipitation in millet key growth stages, and that in Hexi Corridor area increased with increasing temperature. Warming and drying affected millet yield prominently. The weather fluctuation index of regional millet yield in Xifeng, Anding, and Ganzhou accounted for 73%, 72%, and 54% of real output coefficient variation, respectively, and the percentages increased significantly after warming. Warming was conducive to the increase of millet production, and the annual increment of millet climatic yield in Xifeng, Anding, and Ganzhou after warming was 30.6, 43.1, and 121.1 kg x hm(-2), respectively. Aiming at the warming and drying trend in Gansu Province in the future, the millet planting area in the Province should be further expanded, and the millet planting structure should be adjusted. At the same time, according to the different regional and yearly climatic types, different varieties should be selected, and various planting measures should be taken.

Suppressed mid-latitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Q.

2016-12-01

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heatwaves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature (SST) warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH mid-latitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH mid-latitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

Earlier flowering did not alter pollen limitation in an early flowering shrub under short-term experimental warming.

PubMed

Pan, Cheng-Chen; Feng, Qi; Zhao, Ha-Lin; Liu, Lin-De; Li, Yu-Lin; Li, Yu-Qiang; Zhang, Tong-Hui; Yu, Xiao-Ya

2017-06-05

In animal pollinated plants, phenological shifts caused by climate change may have important ecological consequences. However, no empirical evidence exists at present on the consequences that flowering phenology shifts have on the strength of pollen limitation under experimental warming. Here, we investigated the effects of experimental warming on flowering phenology, flower density, reproductive success, and pollen limitation intensity in Caragana microphylla and evaluated whether earlier flowering phenology affected plant reproduction and the level of pollen limitation using warmed and unwarmed open top chambers in the Horqin Sandy Land of Inner Mongolia, northern China. The results of this study indicated that artificial warming markedly advanced flower phenology rather than extending the duration of the flowering. Additionally, warming was found to significantly reduce flower density which led to seed production reduction, since there were insignificant effects observed on fruit set and seed number per fruit. Experimental floral manipulations showed that warming did not affect pollen limitation. These results revealed the negative effects of advanced phenology induced by warming on flower density and reproductive output, as well as the neutral effects on reproductive success and pollen limitation intensity of long surviving plants.

The incremental role of trait emotional intelligence on perceived cervical screening barriers.

PubMed

Costa, Sebastiano; Barberis, Nadia; Larcan, Rosalba; Cuzzocrea, Francesca

2018-02-13

Researchers have become increasingly interested in investigating the role of the psychological aspects related to the perception of cervical screening barriers. This study investigates the influence of trait EI on perceived cervical screening barriers. Furthermore, this study investigates the incremental validity of trait EI beyond the Big Five, as well as emotion regulation in the perceived barrier towards the Pap test as revealed in a sample of 206 Italian women that were undergoing cervical screening. Results have shown that trait EI is negatively related to cervical screening barriers. Furthermore, trait EI can be considered as a strong incremental predictor of a woman's perception of screening over and above the Big Five, emotion regulation, age, sexual intercourse experience and past Pap test. Detailed information on the study findings and future research directions are discussed.

Ocean acidification exerts negative effects during warming conditions in a developing Antarctic fish

PubMed Central

Flynn, Erin E; Bjelde, Brittany E; Miller, Nathan A

2015-01-01

Abstract Anthropogenic CO2 is rapidly causing oceans to become warmer and more acidic, challenging marine ectotherms to respond to simultaneous changes in their environment. While recent work has highlighted that marine fishes, particularly during early development, can be vulnerable to ocean acidification, we lack an understanding of how life-history strategies, ecosystems and concurrent ocean warming interplay with interspecific susceptibility. To address the effects of multiple ocean changes on cold-adapted, slowly developing fishes, we investigated the interactive effects of elevated partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and temperature on the embryonic physiology of an Antarctic dragonfish (Gymnodraco acuticeps), with protracted embryogenesis (∼10 months). Using an integrative, experimental approach, our research examined the impacts of near-future warming [−1 (ambient) and 2°C (+3°C)] and ocean acidification [420 (ambient), 650 (moderate) and 1000 μatm pCO2 (high)] on survival, development and metabolic processes over the course of 3 weeks in early development. In the presence of increased pCO2 alone, embryonic mortality did not increase, with greatest overall survival at the highest pCO2. Furthermore, embryos were significantly more likely to be at a later developmental stage at high pCO2 by 3 weeks relative to ambient pCO2. However, in combined warming and ocean acidification scenarios, dragonfish embryos experienced a dose-dependent, synergistic decrease in survival and developed more slowly. We also found significant interactions between temperature, pCO2 and time in aerobic enzyme activity (citrate synthase). Increased temperature alone increased whole-organism metabolic rate (O2 consumption) and developmental rate and slightly decreased osmolality at the cost of increased mortality. Our findings suggest that developing dragonfish are more sensitive to ocean warming and may experience negative physiological effects of ocean acidification only in the presence of an increased temperature. In addition to reduced hatching success, alterations in development and metabolism due to ocean warming and acidification could have negative ecological consequences owing to changes in phenology (i.e. early hatching) in the highly seasonal Antarctic ecosystem. PMID:27293718

Ocean acidification exerts negative effects during warming conditions in a developing Antarctic fish.

PubMed

Flynn, Erin E; Bjelde, Brittany E; Miller, Nathan A; Todgham, Anne E

2015-01-01

Anthropogenic CO2 is rapidly causing oceans to become warmer and more acidic, challenging marine ectotherms to respond to simultaneous changes in their environment. While recent work has highlighted that marine fishes, particularly during early development, can be vulnerable to ocean acidification, we lack an understanding of how life-history strategies, ecosystems and concurrent ocean warming interplay with interspecific susceptibility. To address the effects of multiple ocean changes on cold-adapted, slowly developing fishes, we investigated the interactive effects of elevated partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and temperature on the embryonic physiology of an Antarctic dragonfish (Gymnodraco acuticeps), with protracted embryogenesis (∼10 months). Using an integrative, experimental approach, our research examined the impacts of near-future warming [-1 (ambient) and 2°C (+3°C)] and ocean acidification [420 (ambient), 650 (moderate) and 1000 μatm pCO2 (high)] on survival, development and metabolic processes over the course of 3 weeks in early development. In the presence of increased pCO2 alone, embryonic mortality did not increase, with greatest overall survival at the highest pCO2. Furthermore, embryos were significantly more likely to be at a later developmental stage at high pCO2 by 3 weeks relative to ambient pCO2. However, in combined warming and ocean acidification scenarios, dragonfish embryos experienced a dose-dependent, synergistic decrease in survival and developed more slowly. We also found significant interactions between temperature, pCO2 and time in aerobic enzyme activity (citrate synthase). Increased temperature alone increased whole-organism metabolic rate (O2 consumption) and developmental rate and slightly decreased osmolality at the cost of increased mortality. Our findings suggest that developing dragonfish are more sensitive to ocean warming and may experience negative physiological effects of ocean acidification only in the presence of an increased temperature. In addition to reduced hatching success, alterations in development and metabolism due to ocean warming and acidification could have negative ecological consequences owing to changes in phenology (i.e. early hatching) in the highly seasonal Antarctic ecosystem.

Main processes of the Atlantic cold tongue interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Planton, Yann; Voldoire, Aurore; Giordani, Hervé; Caniaux, Guy

2018-03-01

The interannual variability of the Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) is studied by means of a mixed-layer heat budget analysis. A method to classify extreme cold and warm ACT events is proposed and applied to ten various analysis and reanalysis products. This classification allows 5 cold and 5 warm ACT events to be selected over the period 1982-2007. Cold (warm) ACT events are defined by the presence of negative (positive) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies at the center of the equatorial Atlantic in late boreal spring, preceded by negative (positive) zonal wind stress anomalies in the western equatorial Atlantic. An ocean general circulation model capable of reconstructing the interannual variability of the ACT correctly is used to demonstrate that cold ACT events develop rapidly from May to June mainly due to intense cooling by vertical mixing and horizontal advection. The simulated cooling at the center of the basin is the result of the combined effects of non-local and local processes. The non-local process is an upwelling associated with an eastward-propagating Kelvin wave, which makes the mixed-layer more shallow and preconditions the upper layers to be cooled by an intense heat loss at the base of the mixed-layer, which is amplified by a stronger local injection of energy from the atmosphere. The early cooling by vertical mixing in March is also shown to be a good predictor of June cooling. In July, horizontal advection starts to warm the mixed-layer abnormally and damps SST anomalies. The advection anomalies, which result from changes in the horizontal temperature gradient, are associated in some cases with the propagation of Rossby waves along the equator. During warm ACT events, processes are reversed, generating positive SST anomalies: a downwelling Kelvin wave triggers stratification anomalies and mixed-layer depth anomalies, amplified by a weaker injection of energy from the atmosphere in May-June. In July, warm ACT events are abnormally cooled due to negative horizontal advection anomalies resulting from processes similar to those that occur during cold ACT events. This additional cooling process extends the period of cooling of the ACT, reducing SST anomalies.

Testing the Relations Between Impulsivity-Related Traits, Suicidality, and Nonsuicidal Self-Injury: A Test of the Incremental Validity of the UPPS Model

PubMed Central

Lynam, Donald R.; Miller, Joshua D.; Miller, Drew J.; Bornovalova, Marina A.; Lejuez, C. W.

2011-01-01

Borderline personality disorder (BPD) has received significant attention as a predictor of suicidal behavior (SB) and nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI). Despite significant promise, trait impulsivity has received less attention. Understanding the relations between impulsivity and SB and NSSI is confounded, unfortunately, by the heterogeneous nature of impulsivity. This study examined the relations among 4 personality pathways to impulsive behavior studied via the UPPS model of impulsivity and SB and NSSI in a residential sample of drug abusers (N = 76). In this study, we tested whether these 4 impulsivity-related traits (i.e., Negative Urgency, Sensation Seeking, Lack of Premeditation, and Lack of Perseverance) provide incremental validity in the statistical prediction of SB and NSSI above and beyond BPD; they do. We also tested whether BPD symptoms provide incremental validity in the prediction of SB and NSSI above and beyond these impulsivity-related traits; they do not. In addition to the main effects of Lack of Premeditation and Negative Urgency, we found evidence of a robust interaction between these 2 personality traits. The current results argue strongly for the consideration of these 2 impulsivity-related domains—alone and in interaction—when attempting to understand and predict SB and NSSI. PMID:21833346

Testing the relations between impulsivity-related traits, suicidality, and nonsuicidal self-injury: a test of the incremental validity of the UPPS model.

PubMed

Lynam, Donald R; Miller, Joshua D; Miller, Drew J; Bornovalova, Marina A; Lejuez, C W

2011-04-01

Borderline personality disorder (BPD) has received significant attention as a predictor of suicidal behavior (SB) and nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI). Despite significant promise, trait impulsivity has received less attention. Understanding the relations between impulsivity and SB and NSSI is confounded, unfortunately, by the heterogeneous nature of impulsivity. This study examined the relations among 4 personality pathways to impulsive behavior studied via the UPPS model of impulsivity and SB and NSSI in a residential sample of drug abusers (N = 76). In this study, we tested whether these 4 impulsivity-related traits (i.e., Negative Urgency, Sensation Seeking, Lack of Premeditation, and Lack of Perseverance) provide incremental validity in the statistical prediction of SB and NSSI above and beyond BPD; they do. We also tested whether BPD symptoms provide incremental validity in the prediction of SB and NSSI above and beyond these impulsivity-related traits; they do not. In addition to the main effects of Lack of Premeditation and Negative Urgency, we found evidence of a robust interaction between these 2 personality traits. The current results argue strongly for the consideration of these 2 impulsivity-related domains--alone and in interaction--when attempting to understand and predict SB and NSSI.

The rise of global warming skepticism: exploring affective image associations in the United States over time.

PubMed

Smith, Nicholas; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2012-06-01

This article explores how affective image associations to global warming have changed over time. Four nationally representative surveys of the American public were conducted between 2002 and 2010 to assess public global warming risk perceptions, policy preferences, and behavior. Affective images (positive or negative feelings and cognitive representations) were collected and content analyzed. The results demonstrate a large increase in "naysayer" associations, indicating extreme skepticism about the issue of climate change. Multiple regression analyses found that holistic affect and "naysayer" associations were more significant predictors of global warming risk perceptions than cultural worldviews or sociodemographic variables, including political party and ideology. The results demonstrate the important role affective imagery plays in judgment and decision-making processes, how these variables change over time, and how global warming is currently perceived by the American public. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Real-world and trial-based cost-effectiveness analysis of bevacizumab in HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer patients: a study of the Southeast Netherlands Breast Cancer Consortium.

PubMed

van Kampen, R J W; Ramaekers, B L T; Lobbezoo, D J A; de Boer, M; Dercksen, M W; van den Berkmortel, F; Smilde, T J; van de Wouw, A J; Peters, F P J; van Riel, J M G; Peters, N A J B; Tjan-Heijnen, V C G; Joore, M A

2017-07-01

The aim of our analysis was to assess the real-world cost-effectiveness of bevacizumab in addition to taxane treatment versus taxane monotherapy for HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer compared with the cost-effectiveness based on the efficacy results from a trial. A state transition model was built to estimate costs, life years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for both treatments. Two scenarios were examined: a real-world scenario and a trial-based scenario in which transition probabilities were primarily based on a real-world cohort study and the E2100 trial, respectively. In both scenarios, costs and utility parameter estimates were extracted from the real-world cohort study. Moreover, the Dutch health care perspective was adopted. In both the real-world and trial scenarios, bevacizumab-taxane is more expensive (incremental costs of €56,213 and €52,750, respectively) and more effective (incremental QALYs of 0.362 and 0.189, respectively) than taxane monotherapy. In the real-world scenario, bevacizumab-taxane compared to taxane monotherapy led to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €155,261 per QALY gained. In the trial scenario, the ICER amounted to €278,711 per QALY gained. According to the Dutch informal threshold, bevacizumab in addition to taxane treatment was not considered cost-effective for HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer both in a real-world and in a trial scenario. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantification, Prediction, and the Online Impact of Sentence Truth-Value: Evidence From Event-Related Potentials

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Do negative quantifiers like “few” reduce people’s ability to rapidly evaluate incoming language with respect to world knowledge? Previous research has addressed this question by examining whether online measures of quantifier comprehension match the “final” interpretation reflected in verification judgments. However, these studies confounded quantifier valence with its impact on the unfolding expectations for upcoming words, yielding mixed results. In the current event-related potentials study, participants read negative and positive quantifier sentences matched on cloze probability and on truth-value (e.g., “Most/Few gardeners plant their flowers during the spring/winter for best results”). Regardless of whether participants explicitly verified the sentences or not, true-positive quantifier sentences elicited reduced N400s compared with false-positive quantifier sentences, reflecting the facilitated semantic retrieval of words that render a sentence true. No such facilitation was seen in negative quantifier sentences. However, mixed-effects model analyses (with cloze value and truth-value as continuous predictors) revealed that decreasing cloze values were associated with an interaction pattern between truth-value and quantifier, whereas increasing cloze values were associated with more similar truth-value effects regardless of quantifier. Quantifier sentences are thus understood neither always in 2 sequential stages, nor always in a partial-incremental fashion, nor always in a maximally incremental fashion. Instead, and in accordance with prediction-based views of sentence comprehension, quantifier sentence comprehension depends on incorporation of quantifier meaning into an online, knowledge-based prediction for upcoming words. Fully incremental quantifier interpretation occurs when quantifiers are incorporated into sufficiently strong online predictions for upcoming words. PMID:26375784

Decomposition of recalcitrant carbon under experimental warming in boreal forest

PubMed Central

Allison, Steven D.; Treseder, Kathleen K.

2017-01-01

Over the long term, soil carbon (C) storage is partly determined by decomposition rate of carbon that is slow to decompose (i.e., recalcitrant C). According to thermodynamic theory, decomposition rates of recalcitrant C might differ from those of non-recalcitrant C in their sensitivities to global warming. We decomposed leaf litter in a warming experiment in Alaskan boreal forest, and measured mass loss of recalcitrant C (lignin) vs. non-recalcitrant C (cellulose, hemicellulose, and sugars) throughout 16 months. We found that these C fractions responded differently to warming. Specifically, after one year of decomposition, the ratio of recalcitrant C to non-recalcitrant C remaining in litter declined in the warmed plots compared to control. Consistent with this pattern, potential activities of enzymes targeting recalcitrant C increased with warming, relative to those targeting non-recalcitrant C. Even so, mass loss of individual C fractions showed that non-recalcitrant C is preferentially decomposed under control conditions whereas recalcitrant C losses remain unchanged between control and warmed plots. Moreover, overall mass loss was greater under control conditions. Our results imply that direct warming effects, as well as indirect warming effects (e.g. drying), may serve to maintain decomposition rates of recalcitrant C compared to non-recalcitrant C despite negative effects on overall decomposition. PMID:28622366

Pseudoinefficacy: negative feelings from children who cannot be helped reduce warm glow for children who can be helped.

PubMed

Västfjäll, Daniel; Slovic, Paul; Mayorga, Marcus

2015-01-01

In a great many situations where we are asked to aid persons whose lives are endangered, we are not able to help everyone. What are the emotional and motivational consequences of "not helping all"? In a series of experiments, we demonstrate that negative affect arising from children that could not be helped decreases the warm glow of positive feeling associated with aiding the children who can be helped. This demotivation from the children outside of our reach may be a form of "pseudoinefficacy" that is non-rational. We should not be deterred from helping whomever we can because there are others we are not able to help.

Asymmetric Response of the Equatorial Pacific SST to Climate Warming and Cooling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Fukai; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian

The response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Results show a strong asymmetry in SST changes. In the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP), the warming responding to the positive forcing exceeds the cooling to the negative forcing; while in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP), it is the other way around and the cooling surpasses the warming. This leads to a zonal dipole asymmetric structure, with positive values in the east and negative values in the west. A surface heat budget analysis suggests that themore » SST asymmetry is mainly resulted from the oceanic horizontal advection and vertical entrainment, with both of their linear and nonlinear components playing a role. For the linear component, its change appears to be more significant over the EEP (WEP) in the positive (negative) forcing scenario, favoring the seesaw pattern of the SST asymmetry. For the nonlinear component, its change acts to warm (cool) the EEP (WEP) in both scenarios, also favorable for the development of the SST asymmetry. Additional experiments with a slab ocean confirm the dominant role of ocean dynamical processes for this SST asymmetry. The net surface heat flux, in contrast, works to reduce the SST asymmetry through its shortwave radiation and latent heat flux components, with the former being related to the nonlinear relationship between SST and convection, and the latter being attributable to Newtonian damping and air-sea stability effects. The suppressing effect of shortwave radiation on SST asymmetry is further verified by partially coupled overriding experiments.« less

Asymmetric response of the equatorial Pacific SST to climate warming and cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Y.; Liu, F.; Lu, J.

2017-12-01

The response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Results show a strong asymmetry in SST changes. In the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP), the warming responding to the positive forcing exceeds the cooling to the negative forcing; while in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP), it is the other way around and the cooling surpasses the warming. This leads to a zonal dipole asymmetric structure, with positive values in the east and negative values in the west. A surface heat budget analysis suggests that the SST asymmetry is mainly resulted from the oceanic horizontal advection and vertical entrainment, with both of their linear and nonlinear components playing a role. For the linear component, its change appears to be more significant over the EEP (WEP) in the positive (negative) forcing scenario, favoring the seesaw pattern of the SST asymmetry. For the nonlinear component, its change acts to warm (cool) the EEP (WEP) in both scenarios, also favorable for the development of the SST asymmetry. Additional experiments with a slab ocean confirm the dominant role of ocean dynamical processes for this SST asymmetry. The net surface heat flux, in contrast, works to reduce the SST asymmetry through its shortwave radiation and latent heat flux components, with the former being related to the nonlinear relationship between SST and convection, and the latter being attributable to Newtonian damping and air-sea stability effects. The suppressing effect of shortwave radiation on SST asymmetry is further verified by partially coupled overriding experiments.

Role of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region in the northeast Asia severe drought in summer 2014: month-to-month perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhiqing; Fan, Ke; Wang, HuiJun

2017-09-01

The severe drought over northeast Asia in summer 2014 and the contribution to it by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region were investigated from the month-to-month perspective. The severe drought was accompanied by weak lower-level summer monsoon flow and featured an obvious northward movement during summer. The mid-latitude Asian summer (MAS) pattern and East Asia/Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern, induced by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) rainfall anomalies respectively, were two main bridges between the SST anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region and the severe drought. Warming in the Arabian Sea induced reduced rainfall over northeast India and then triggered a negative MAS pattern favoring the severe drought in June 2014. In July 2014, warming in the tropical western North Pacific led to a strong WNPSM and increased rainfall over the Philippine Sea, triggering a positive EAP pattern. The equatorial eastern Pacific and local warming resulted in increased rainfall over the off-equatorial western Pacific and triggered an EAP-like pattern. The EAP pattern and EAP-like pattern contributed to the severe drought in July 2014. A negative Indian Ocean dipole induced an anomalous meridional circulation, and warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific induced an anomalous zonal circulation, in August 2014. The two anomalous cells led to a weak ISM and WNPSM, triggering the negative MAS and EAP patterns responsible for the severe drought. Two possible reasons for the northward movement of the drought were also proposed.

Relationship between the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation and the onset of stratospheric final warming in the northern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Jinggao; Li, Tim; Xu, Haiming

2018-01-01

The seasonal timing or onset date of the stratospheric final warming (SFWOD) events has a considerable interannual variability. This paper reports a statistically significant relationship between the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and SFWOD in the Northern Hemisphere in two sub-periods (1951-1978 and 1979-2015). Specifically, in the first (second) sub-period, the NPGO is negatively (positively) linked with SFWOD. Composite analyses associated with anomalous NPGO years are conducted to diagnose the dynamic processes of the NPGO-SFWOD link. During 1951-1978, positive NPGO years tend to strengthen the Pacific-North America (PNA) pattern in the mid-troposphere in boreal winter. The strengthened PNA pattern in February leads to strong planetary wave activity in the extratropical stratosphere from late February to March and causes the early onset of SFW in early April. By contrast, a strengthened Western Pacific pattern from January to early February in negative NPGO years causes a burst of planetary waves in both the troposphere and extratropical stratosphere from late January to mid-February and results in more winter stratospheric sudden warming events, which, in turn, leads to a dormant spring and a late onset of SFW in late April. During 1979-2015, positive (negative) NPGO years strongly strengthen (weaken) the mid-tropospheric Aleutian low and the Western Pacific pattern from January to mid-March, leading to increased (decreased) planetary wavenumber-1 activity in the stratosphere from mid- to late winter and thus more (less) winter stratospheric sudden warming events and late (early) onsets of SFW in early May (mid-April).

Perceived Context of Reception among Recent Hispanic Immigrants: Conceptualization, Instrument Development, and Preliminary Validation

PubMed Central

Schwartz, Seth J.; Unger, Jennifer B.; Lorenzo-Blanco, Elma I.; Des Rosiers, Sabrina E.; Villamar, Juan A.; Soto, Daniel W.; Pattarroyo, Monica; Baezconde-Garbanati, Lourdes; Szapocznik, José

2013-01-01

Context of reception has been discussed widely in the sociological and anthropological literature, but no measures of this construct exist. We designed a measure of perceived context of reception and provide initial support for the factorial validity, internal consistency reliability, and incremental and discriminant validity of scores generated by this measure. A sample of 302 recent-immigrant Hispanic parent-adolescent dyads from Miami and Los Angeles completed the new perceived context of reception measure, as well as measures of perceived discrimination; Hispanic/American cultural practices, values, and identifications; and depressive symptoms. In Phase 1, exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses extracted a factor for negative perceived context of reception. A subscale corresponding to this factor was used in Phase 2; for parents and adolescents, negative perceived context of reception and perceived discrimination were differentially associated with acculturation-related variables – suggesting discriminant validity between perceived discrimination and negative perceived context of reception. For adolescents at both sites and for parents in Los Angeles only, the negative perceived context of reception dimensions were significantly associated with depressive symptoms six months later, over and above the contribution made by perceived discrimination – suggesting incremental validity. Results are discussed in terms of perceived context of reception as a new and emerging construct. PMID:24099485

Perceived context of reception among recent Hispanic immigrants: conceptualization, instrument development, and preliminary validation.

PubMed

Schwartz, Seth J; Unger, Jennifer B; Lorenzo-Blanco, Elma I; Des Rosiers, Sabrina E; Villamar, Juan A; Soto, Daniel W; Pattarroyo, Monica; Baezconde-Garbanati, Lourdes; Szapocznik, José

2014-01-01

Context of reception has been discussed widely in the sociological and anthropological literature, but no measures of this construct exist. We designed a measure of perceived context of reception and provide initial support for the factorial validity, internal consistency reliability, and incremental and discriminant validity of scores generated by this measure. A sample of 302 recent-immigrant Hispanic parent-adolescent dyads from Miami and Los Angeles completed the new perceived context of reception measure, as well as measures of perceived discrimination; Hispanic/American cultural practices, values, and identifications; and depressive symptoms. In Phase 1, exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses extracted a factor for negative perceived context of reception. A subscale corresponding to this factor was used in Phase 2; for parents and adolescents, negative perceived context of reception and perceived discrimination were differentially associated with acculturation-related variables-suggesting discriminant validity between perceived discrimination and negative perceived context of reception. For adolescents at both sites and for parents in Los Angeles only, the negative perceived context of reception dimensions were significantly associated with depressive symptoms 6 months later, over and above the contribution made by perceived discrimination--suggesting incremental validity. Results are discussed in terms of perceived context of reception as a new and emerging construct.

Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berg, Alexis; Sheffield, Justin; Milly, Paul C.D.

2017-01-01

Land aridity has been projected to increase with global warming. Such projections are mostly based on off-line aridity and drought metrics applied to climate model outputs but also are supported by climate-model projections of decreased surface soil moisture. Here we comprehensively analyze soil moisture projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, including surface, total, and layer-by-layer soil moisture. We identify a robust vertical gradient of projected mean soil moisture changes, with more negative changes near the surface. Some regions of the northern middle to high latitudes exhibit negative annual surface changes but positive total changes. We interpret this behavior in the context of seasonal changes in the surface water budget. This vertical pattern implies that the extensive drying predicted by off-line drought metrics, while consistent with the projected decline in surface soil moisture, will tend to overestimate (negatively) changes in total soil water availability.

Investigating Runoff Efficiency in Upper Colorado River Streamflow Over Past Centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodhouse, Connie A.; Pederson, Gregory T.

2018-01-01

With increasing concerns about the impact of warming temperatures on water resources, more attention is being paid to the relationship between runoff and precipitation, or runoff efficiency. Temperature is a key influence on Colorado River runoff efficiency, and warming temperatures are projected to reduce runoff efficiency. Here, we investigate the nature of runoff efficiency in the upper Colorado River (UCRB) basin over the past 400 years, with a specific focus on major droughts and pluvials, and to contextualize the instrumental period. We first verify the feasibility of reconstructing runoff efficiency from tree-ring data. The reconstruction is then used to evaluate variability in runoff efficiency over periods of high and low flow, and its correspondence to a reconstruction of late runoff season UCRB temperature variability. Results indicate that runoff efficiency has played a consistent role in modulating the relationship between precipitation and streamflow over past centuries, and that temperature has likely been the key control. While negative runoff efficiency is most common during dry periods, and positive runoff efficiency during wet years, there are some instances of positive runoff efficiency moderating the impact of precipitation deficits on streamflow. Compared to past centuries, the 20th century has experienced twice as many high flow years with negative runoff efficiency, likely due to warm temperatures. These results suggest warming temperatures will continue to reduce runoff efficiency in wet or dry years, and that future flows will be less than anticipated from precipitation due to warming temperatures.

Investigating runoff efficiency in upper Colorado River streamflow over past centuries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodhouse, Connie A.; Pederson, Gregory T.

2018-01-01

With increasing concerns about the impact of warming temperatures on water resources, more attention is being paid to the relationship between runoff and precipitation, or runoff efficiency. Temperature is a key influence on Colorado River runoff efficiency, and warming temperatures are projected to reduce runoff efficiency. Here, we investigate the nature of runoff efficiency in the upper Colorado River (UCRB) basin over the past 400 years, with a specific focus on major droughts and pluvials, and to contextualize the instrumental period. We first verify the feasibility of reconstructing runoff efficiency from tree-ring data. The reconstruction is then used to evaluate variability in runoff efficiency over periods of high and low flow, and its correspondence to a reconstruction of late runoff season UCRB temperature variability. Results indicate that runoff efficiency has played a consistent role in modulating the relationship between precipitation and streamflow over past centuries, and that temperature has likely been the key control. While negative runoff efficiency is most common during dry periods, and positive runoff efficiency during wet years, there are some instances of positive runoff efficiency moderating the impact of precipitation deficits on streamflow. Compared to past centuries, the 20th century has experienced twice as many high flow years with negative runoff efficiency, likely due to warm temperatures. These results suggest warming temperatures will continue to reduce runoff efficiency in wet or dry years, and that future flows will be less than anticipated from precipitation due to warming temperatures.

Strong impacts of daily minimum temperature on the green-up date and summer greenness of the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Shen, Miaogen; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Xiaoqiu; An, Shuai; Fu, Yongshuo H; Wang, Shiping; Cong, Nan; Janssens, Ivan A

2016-09-01

Understanding vegetation responses to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) helps in elucidating the land-atmosphere energy exchange, which affects air mass movement over and around the TP. Although the TP is one of the world's most sensitive regions in terms of climatic warming, little is known about how the vegetation responds. Here, we focus on how spring phenology and summertime greenness respond to the asymmetric warming, that is, stronger warming during nighttime than during daytime. Using both in situ and satellite observations, we found that vegetation green-up date showed a stronger negative partial correlation with daily minimum temperature (Tmin ) than with maximum temperature (Tmax ) before the growing season ('preseason' henceforth). Summer vegetation greenness was strongly positively correlated with summer Tmin , but negatively with Tmax . A 1-K increase in preseason Tmin advanced green-up date by 4 days (P < 0.05) and in summer enhanced greenness by 3.6% relative to the mean greenness during 2000-2004 (P < 0.01). In contrast, increases in preseason Tmax did not advance green-up date (P > 0.10) and higher summer Tmax even reduced greenness by 2.6% K(-1) (P < 0.05). The stimulating effects of increasing Tmin were likely caused by reduced low temperature constraints, and the apparent negative effects of higher Tmax on greenness were probably due to the accompanying decline in water availability. The dominant enhancing effect of nighttime warming indicates that climatic warming will probably have stronger impact on TP ecosystems than on apparently similar Arctic ecosystems where vegetation is controlled mainly by Tmax . Our results are crucial for future improvements of dynamic vegetation models embedded in the Earth System Models which are being used to describe the behavior of the Asian monsoon. The results are significant because the state of the vegetation on the TP plays an important role in steering the monsoon. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Hardiness scales in Iranian managers: evidence of incremental validity in relationships with the five factor model and with organizational and psychological adjustment.

PubMed

Ghorbani, Nima; Watson, P J

2005-06-01

This study examined the incremental validity of Hardiness scales in a sample of Iranian managers. Along with measures of the Five Factor Model and of Organizational and Psychological Adjustment, Hardiness scales were administered to 159 male managers (M age = 39.9, SD = 7.5) who had worked in their organizations for 7.9 yr. (SD=5.4). Hardiness predicted greater Job Satisfaction, higher Organization-based Self-esteem, and perceptions of the work environment as being less stressful and constraining. Hardiness also correlated positively with Assertiveness, Emotional Stability, Extraversion, Openness to Experience, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness and negatively with Depression, Anxiety, Perceived Stress, Chance External Control, and a Powerful Others External Control. Evidence of incremental validity was obtained when the Hardiness scales supplemented the Five Factor Model in predicting organizational and psychological adjustment. These data documented the incremental validity of the Hardiness scales in a non-Western sample and thus confirmed once again that Hardiness has a relevance that extends beyond the culture in which it was developed.

Role of volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols in the recent global surface warming slowdown

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Doug M.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Eade, Rosie; Hermanson, Leon; Jones, Gareth S.; Scaife, Adam A.; Sheen, Katy L.; Thompson, Vikki

2016-10-01

The rate of global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming has slowed this century despite the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. Climate model experiments show that this slowdown was largely driven by a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), with a smaller external contribution from solar variability, and volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols. The prevailing view is that this negative PDO occurred through internal variability. However, here we show that coupled models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project robustly simulate a negative PDO in response to anthropogenic aerosols implying a potentially important role for external human influences. The recovery from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 also contributed to the slowdown in GMST trends. Our results suggest that a slowdown in GMST trends could have been predicted in advance, and that future reduction of anthropogenic aerosol emissions, particularly from China, would promote a positive PDO and increased GMST trends over the coming years. Furthermore, the overestimation of the magnitude of recent warming by models is substantially reduced by using detection and attribution analysis to rescale their response to external factors, especially cooling following volcanic eruptions. Improved understanding of external influences on climate is therefore crucial to constrain near-term climate predictions.

Relating annual increments of the endangered Blanding's turtle plastron growth to climate

PubMed Central

Richard, Monik G; Laroque, Colin P; Herman, Thomas B

2014-01-01

This research is the first published study to report a relationship between climate variables and plastron growth increments of turtles, in this case the endangered Nova Scotia Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii). We used techniques and software common to the discipline of dendrochronology to successfully cross-date our growth increment data series, to detrend and average our series of 80 immature Blanding's turtles into one common chronology, and to seek correlations between the chronology and environmental temperature and precipitation variables. Our cross-dated chronology had a series intercorrelation of 0.441 (above 99% confidence interval), an average mean sensitivity of 0.293, and an average unfiltered autocorrelation of 0.377. Our master chronology represented increments from 1975 to 2007 (33 years), with index values ranging from a low of 0.688 in 2006 to a high of 1.303 in 1977. Univariate climate response function analysis on mean monthly air temperature and precipitation values revealed a positive correlation with the previous year's May temperature and current year's August temperature; a negative correlation with the previous year's October temperature; and no significant correlation with precipitation. These techniques for determining growth increment response to environmental variables should be applicable to other turtle species and merit further exploration. PMID:24963390

Relating annual increments of the endangered Blanding's turtle plastron growth to climate.

PubMed

Richard, Monik G; Laroque, Colin P; Herman, Thomas B

2014-05-01

This research is the first published study to report a relationship between climate variables and plastron growth increments of turtles, in this case the endangered Nova Scotia Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii). We used techniques and software common to the discipline of dendrochronology to successfully cross-date our growth increment data series, to detrend and average our series of 80 immature Blanding's turtles into one common chronology, and to seek correlations between the chronology and environmental temperature and precipitation variables. Our cross-dated chronology had a series intercorrelation of 0.441 (above 99% confidence interval), an average mean sensitivity of 0.293, and an average unfiltered autocorrelation of 0.377. Our master chronology represented increments from 1975 to 2007 (33 years), with index values ranging from a low of 0.688 in 2006 to a high of 1.303 in 1977. Univariate climate response function analysis on mean monthly air temperature and precipitation values revealed a positive correlation with the previous year's May temperature and current year's August temperature; a negative correlation with the previous year's October temperature; and no significant correlation with precipitation. These techniques for determining growth increment response to environmental variables should be applicable to other turtle species and merit further exploration.

Relationship between the Arctic oscillation and surface air temperature in multi-decadal time-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Hiroshi L.; Tamura, Mina

2016-09-01

In this study, a simple energy balance model (EBM) was integrated in time, considering a hypothetical long-term variability in ice-albedo feedback mimicking the observed multi-decadal temperature variability. A natural variability was superimposed on a linear warming trend due to the increasing radiative forcing of CO2. The result demonstrates that the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend can offset with each other to show the warming hiatus for some period. It is also stressed that the rapid warming during 1970-2000 can be explained by the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend at least within the simple model. The key process of the fluctuating planetary albedo in multi-decadal time scale is investigated using the JRA-55 reanalysis data. It is found that the planetary albedo increased for 1958-1970, decreased for 1970-2000, and increased for 2000-2012, as expected by the simple EBM experiments. The multi-decadal variability in the planetary albedo is compared with the time series of the AO mode and Barents Sea mode of surface air temperature. It is shown that the recent AO negative pattern showing warm Arctic and cold mid-latitudes is in good agreement with planetary albedo change indicating negative anomaly in high latitudes and positive anomaly in mid-latitudes. Moreover, the Barents Sea mode with the warm Barents Sea and cold mid-latitudes shows long-term variability similar to planetary albedo change. Although further studies are needed, the natural variabilities of both the AO mode and Barents Sea mode indicate some possible link to the planetary albedo as suggested by the simple EBM to cause the warming hiatus in recent years.

Moderate ocean warming mitigates, but more extreme warming exacerbates the impacts of zinc from engineered nanoparticles on a marine larva.

PubMed

Mos, Benjamin; Kaposi, Katrina L; Rose, Andrew L; Kelaher, Brendan; Dworjanyn, Symon A

2017-09-01

There is growing concern about the combined effects of multiple human-induced stressors on biodiversity. In particular, there are substantial knowledge gaps about the combined effects of existing stressors (e.g. pollution) and predicted environmental stress from climate change (e.g. ocean warming). We investigated the impacts of ocean warming and engineered nanoparticles (nano-zinc oxide, nZnO) on larvae of a cosmopolitan tropical sea urchin, Tripneustes gratilla. Larval T. gratilla were exposed to all combinations of three temperatures, 25, 27 and 29 °C (current SST and near-future predicted warming of +2 and + 4 °C) and six concentrations of nZnO (0, 0.001, 0.01, 0.1, 1 and 10 mg nZnO·L -1 ). These stressors had strong interactive effects on fertilization, gastrulation and normal development of 5 day old larvae. High concentrations of nZnO had a negative effect, but this impact was less pronounced for sea urchins reared at their preferred temperature of 27 °C compared to 25 or 29 °C. Larval growth was also impacted by combined stress of elevated temperature and nZnO. Subsequent measurement of the dissolution and aggregation of nZnO particles and the direct effect of Zn 2+ ions on larvae, suggest the negative effects of nZnO on larval development and growth were most likely due to Zn 2+ ions. Our results demonstrate that marine larvae may be more resilient to stressors at optimal temperatures and highlight the potential for ocean warming to exacerbate the effects of pollution on marine larvae. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The increase in fat content in the warm-acclimated striped hamsters is associated with the down-regulated metabolic thermogenesis.

PubMed

Tan, Song; Wen, Jing; Shi, Lu-Lu; Wang, Chun-Ming; Wang, Gui-Ying; Zhao, Zhi-Jun

2016-11-01

It has been well known that metabolic thermogenesis plays an important role in the thermoregulation of small mammals under different temperatures, while its role in fat accumulation is far from clear. In the present study, several physiological, hormonal, and biochemical measures indicative of metabolic thermogenesis were measured in the weaning striped hamsters after acclimated to a warm condition (30°C) for 1, 3 and 4months. The warm-acclimated groups significantly decreased energy intake, and simultaneously decreased nonshivering thermogenesis compared to those housed at 21°C. Body fat content increased by 29.9%, 22.1% and 19.6% in the hamsters acclimated to 1, 3 or 4months, respectively relative to their counterparts maintain at 21°C (P<0.05). The cytochrome c oxidase (COX) activity of brain, liver, heart and skeletal muscle, and the ratio of serum tri-iodothyronine to thyroxine significantly decreased in warm-acclimated groups compared with 21°C group. COX activity and uncoupling protein 1 (UCP1) mRNA expression of brown adipose tissue (BAT) were significantly down-regulated under the warm conditions. COX activity of BAT, liver, heart and muscle were significantly negatively correlated with body fat content, and the correlation between UCP1 expression and body fat content tended to be negative. These findings suggest that the decrease in the energy spent on metabolic thermogenesis plays an important role in the fat accumulation. The attenuation of COX and UCP1-based BAT activity may be involved in body fat accumulation in animals under warm conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of climate warming on net primary productivity in China during 1961-2010.

PubMed

Gu, Fengxue; Zhang, Yuandong; Huang, Mei; Tao, Bo; Guo, Rui; Yan, Changrong

2017-09-01

The response of ecosystems to different magnitudes of climate warming and corresponding precipitation changes during the last few decades may provide an important reference for predicting the magnitude and trajectory of net primary productivity (NPP) in the future. In this study, a process-based ecosystem model, Carbon Exchange between Vegetation, Soil and Atmosphere (CEVSA), was used to investigate the response of NPP to warming at both national and subregional scales during 1961-2010. The results suggest that a 1.3°C increase in temperature stimulated the positive changing trend in NPP at national scale during the past 50 years. Regardless of the magnitude of temperature increase, warming enhanced the increase in NPP; however, the positive trend of NPP decreased when warming exceeded 2°C. The largest increase in NPP was found in regions where temperature increased by 1-2°C, and this rate of increase also contributed the most to the total increase in NPP in China's terrestrial ecosystems. Decreasing precipitation depressed the positive trend in NPP that was stimulated by warming. In northern China, warming depressed the increasing trend of NPP and warming that was accompanied by decreasing precipitation led to negative changing trends in NPP in large parts of northern China, especially when warming exceeded 2°C. However, warming stimulated the increase in NPP until warming was greater than 2°C, and decreased precipitation helped to increase the NPP in southern China.

Continuously pumping and reactivating gas pump

DOEpatents

Batzer, T.H.; Call, W.R.

Apparatus for continuous pumping using cycling cryopumping panels. A plurality of liquid helium cooled panels are surrounded by movable nitrogen cooled panels that alternatively expose or shield the helium cooled panels from the space being pumped. Gases condense on exposed helium cooled panels until the nitrogen cooled panels are positioned to isolate the helium cooled panels. The helium cooled panels are incrementally warmed, causing captured gases to accumulate at the base of the panels, where an independant pump removes the gases. After the helium cooled panels are substantially cleaned of condensate, the nitrogen cooled panels are positioned to expose the helium cooled panels to the space being pumped.

Continuously pumping and reactivating gas pump

DOEpatents

Batzer, Thomas H.; Call, Wayne R.

1984-01-01

Apparatus for continuous pumping using cycling cyropumping panels. A plurality of liquid helium cooled panels are surrounded by movable nitrogen cooled panels the alternatively expose or shield the helium cooled panels from the space being pumped. Gases condense on exposed helium cooled panels until the nitrogen cooled panels are positioned to isolate the helium cooled panels. The helium cooled panels are incrementally warmed, causing captured gases to accumulate at the base of the panels, where an independent pump removes the gases. After the helium cooled panels are substantially cleaned of condensate, the nitrogen cooled panels are positioned to expose the helium cooled panels to the space being pumped.

Simulative Global Warming Negatively Affects Cotton Fiber Length through Shortening Fiber Rapid Elongation Duration.

PubMed

Dai, Yanjiao; Yang, Jiashuo; Hu, Wei; Zahoor, Rizwan; Chen, Binglin; Zhao, Wenqing; Meng, Yali; Zhou, Zhiguo

2017-08-23

Global warming could possibly increase the air temperature by 1.8-4.0 °C in the coming decade. Cotton fiber is an essential raw material for the textile industry. Fiber length, which was found negatively related to the excessively high temperature, determines yarn quality to a great extent. To investigate the effects of global warming on cotton fiber length and its mechaism, cottons grown in artificially elevated temperature (34.6/30.5 °C, T day /T night ) and ambient temperature (31.6/27.3 °C) regions have been investigated. Becaused of the high sensitivities of enzymes V-ATPase, PEPC, and genes GhXTH1 and GhXTH2 during fiber elongation when responding to high temperature stress, the fiber rapid elongation duration (FRED) has been shortened, which led to a significant suppression on final fiber length. Through comprehensive analysis, T night had a great influence on fiber elongation, which means T n could be deemed as an ideal index for forecasting the degree of high temperature stress would happen to cotton fiber property in future. Therefore, we speculate the global warming would bring unfavorable effects on cotton fiber length, which needs to take actions in advance for minimizing the loss in cotton production.

Future warmer seas: increased stress and susceptibility to grazing in seedlings of a marine habitat-forming species.

PubMed

Hernán, Gema; Ortega, María J; Gándara, Alberto M; Castejón, Inés; Terrados, Jorge; Tomas, Fiona

2017-11-01

Increases in seawater temperature are expected to have negative consequences for marine organisms. Beyond individual effects, species-specific differences in thermal tolerance are predicted to modify species interactions and increase the strength of top-down effects, particularly in plant-herbivore interactions. Shifts in trophic interactions will be especially important when affecting habitat-forming species such as seagrasses, as the consequences on their abundance will cascade throughout the food web. Seagrasses are a major component of coastal ecosystems offering important ecosystem services, but are threatened by multiple anthropogenic stressors, including warming. The mechanistic understanding of seagrass responses to warming at multiple scales of organization remains largely unexplored, especially in early-life stages such as seedlings. Yet, these early-life stages are critical for seagrass expansion processes and adaptation to climate change. In this study, we determined the effects of a 3 month experimental exposure to present and predicted mean summer SST of the Mediterranean Sea (25°C, 27°C, and 29°C) on the photophysiology, size, and ecology (i.e., plant-herbivore interactions) of seedlings of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica. Warming resulted in increased mortality, leaf necrosis, and respiration as well as lower carbohydrate reserves in the seed, the main storage organ in seedlings. Aboveground biomass and root growth were also limited with warming, which could hamper seedling establishment success. Furthermore, warming increased the susceptibility to consumption by grazers, likely due to lower leaf fiber content and thickness. Our results indicate that warming will negatively affect seagrass seedlings through multiple direct and indirect pathways: increased stress, reduced establishment potential, lower storage of carbohydrate reserves, and increased susceptibly to consumption. This work provides a significant step forward in understanding the major mechanisms that will drive the capacity of seagrass seedlings to adapt and survive to warming, highlighting the potential additive effects that herbivory will have on ultimately determining seedling success. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khomenko, Inna

2016-04-01

Transportation not only affects climate, but are strongly influenced with the climate conditions, and key hubs of the transportation sector are cities. Transportation decision makers have an opportunity now to prepare for projected climate changes owing to development of emission scenarios. In the study impact of climate change on operation of road transport along highways are analyzed on the basis of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Data contains series of daily mean and maximum temperature, daily liquid (or mixed) and solid precipitation, daily mean relative humidity and daily mean and maximum wind speed, obtained for the period of 2011 to 2050 for 8 cities (Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Odesa, Ternopil, Vinnytsia and Voznesensk) situated down the highways. The highways of 'Odesa-Voznesensk-Dnipropetrovsk-Kharkiv' and 'Dnipropetrovsk-Kirovohrad-Vinnytsia-Khmelnytskyi-Ternopil' are considered. The first highway goes across the Black Sea Lowland, the Dnieper Upland and Dnieper Lowland, the other passes through the Dnieper and Volhynia-Podillia Uplands. The both highways are situated in steppe and forest-steppe native zones. For both scenarios, significant climate warming is registered; it is revealed in significant increase of average monthly and yearly temperature by 2-3°C in all cities in questions, and also, in considerable increment of frequency of days with maximum temperature higher than +30 and 35°C, except Kharkiv, where decrease number of days with such temperatures is observed. On the contrary, number of days with daily mean temperature being equal to or below 0°C decreases in the south of steppe, is constant in the north of steppe and increases in the forest-steppe native zone. Extreme negative temperatures don't occur in the steppe zone, but takes place in the forest-steppe zone. Results obtained shows that road surface must hold in extreme maximum temperature, and in the forest-steppe zone hazards of extreme negative temperatures must be considered. Frequency of winter events that make road surface worse such as glaze-clear ice, frozen snow that had initially melted on a warm road surface, ice and snow slippery coats etc., are high enough, especially in the forest-steppe zone. In the Black Sea Lowland among winter events the frozen snow that had initially melted on a warm road surface is most commonly observed, that is connected with high occurrence of the thaws. Because of increase in frequency of shower precipitation in all cities wet road surface is observed most frequently, especially in May and June; it must be taken into account for construction of roads, too. Monthly mean wind speed shows that in Odesa and Kharkiv significant increase in average monthly and yearly wind speeds are observed, by 0,5-1 m/s in comparison with the period of 1961 to 1990. On the contrary, in Dnipropetrovsk, wind speed decreases by 0,7 m/s. Frequency distribution of maximum wind speed shows that high wind speeds are more frequent in the winter months.

Long-term relationships between molybdenum and sulfur concentrations in red cedar tree rings. [Juniperus virginana L

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guyette, R.P.; Cutter, B.E.; Henderson, G.S.

Molybdenum and S concentrations were determined in growth increments of 13 eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginana L.) trees from the Ozark region of Missouri. Chonologies were constructed, which dated from 1280 to 1960 for Mo, and from 1580 to 1960 for S.A 45% increase in Mo concentrations occurred between 1720 and 1860 when compared with the previous 440 yr. A decline in heartwood Mo concentration, beginning in 1860, is hypothesized to be due to increasing soil sulfate from the atmospheric deposition of S compounds. There was a 65% reduction in Mo concentration concomitant with a 44% increase in S concentrations inmore » redcedar heartwood formed after 1860. Sulfur and Mo concentrations were found to be negatively correlated in serial heartwood increments. Competition between sulfate and molybdate ions in soil solutions are thought to have decreased Mo in recent heartwood growth increments.« less

On nonstationarity and antipersistency in global temperature series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KäRner, O.

2002-10-01

Statistical analysis is carried out for satellite-based global daily tropospheric and stratospheric temperature anomaly and solar irradiance data sets. Behavior of the series appears to be nonstationary with stationary daily increments. Estimating long-range dependence between the increments reveals a remarkable difference between the two temperature series. Global average tropospheric temperature anomaly behaves similarly to the solar irradiance anomaly. Their daily increments show antipersistency for scales longer than 2 months. The property points at a cumulative negative feedback in the Earth climate system governing the tropospheric variability during the last 22 years. The result emphasizes a dominating role of the solar irradiance variability in variations of the tropospheric temperature and gives no support to the theory of anthropogenic climate change. The global average stratospheric temperature anomaly proceeds like a 1-dim random walk at least up to 11 years, allowing good presentation by means of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for monthly series.

Search for Minimal and Semi-Minimal Rule Sets in Incremental Learning of Context-Free and Definite Clause Grammars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imada, Keita; Nakamura, Katsuhiko

This paper describes recent improvements to Synapse system for incremental learning of general context-free grammars (CFGs) and definite clause grammars (DCGs) from positive and negative sample strings. An important feature of our approach is incremental learning, which is realized by a rule generation mechanism called “bridging” based on bottom-up parsing for positive samples and the search for rule sets. The sizes of rule sets and the computation time depend on the search strategies. In addition to the global search for synthesizing minimal rule sets and serial search, another method for synthesizing semi-optimum rule sets, we incorporate beam search to the system for synthesizing semi-minimal rule sets. The paper shows several experimental results on learning CFGs and DCGs, and we analyze the sizes of rule sets and the computation time.

Attachment, social support, and responses following the death of a companion animal.

PubMed

King, Loren C; Werner, Paul D

This research tested hypotheses concerning attachment, social support, and grief responses to the loss of animal companionship. Participants whose companion cat or dog had recently died (N = 429) completed the Attachment Style Questionnaire, the Inventory of Complicated Grief, and the Multidimensional Health Profile-Psychosocial Functioning questionnaires. Both attachment anxiety and attachment avoidance were found to be positively associated with respondents' grief, depression, anxiety, and somatic symptoms. Social support was found to be negatively associated with these outcomes as well as with attachment anxiety and attachment avoidance. In multiple regression analyses, attachment anxiety incrementally predicted grief, anxiety and somatic symptoms, attachment avoidance incrementally predicted grief and depression, and social support incrementally predicted all outcomes. Interaction effects of attachment and social support in relation to outcomes were not found. The present study's implications and limitations are discussed, as are directions for future research.

Stable Water Use Efficiency under Climate Change of Three Sympatric Conifer Species at the Alpine Treeline

PubMed Central

Wieser, Gerhard; Oberhuber, Walter; Gruber, Andreas; Leo, Marco; Matyssek, Rainer; Grams, Thorsten Erhard Edgar

2016-01-01

The ability of treeline associated conifers in the Central Alps to cope with recent climate warming and increasing CO2 concentration is still poorly understood. We determined tree ring stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of Pinus cembra, Picea abies, and Larix decidua trees from 1975 to 2010. Stable isotope ratios were compared with leaf level gas exchange measurements carried out in situ between 1979 and 2007. Results indicate that tree ring derived intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) of P. cembra, P. abies and L. decidua remained constant during the last 36 years despite climate warming and rising atmospheric CO2. Temporal patterns in Δ13C and Δ18O mirrored leaf level gas exchange assessments, suggesting parallel increases of CO2-fixation and stomatal conductance of treeline conifer species. As at the study site soil water availability was not a limiting factor iWUE remained largely stable throughout the study period. The stability in iWUE was accompanied by an increase in basal area increment (BAI) suggesting that treeline trees benefit from both recent climate warming and CO2 fertilization. Finally, our results suggest that iWUE may not change species composition at treeline in the Austrian Alps due to similar ecophysiological responses to climatic changes of the three sympatric study species. PMID:27375653

Forced-air warming design: evaluation of intake filtration, internal microbial buildup, and airborne-contamination emissions.

PubMed

Reed, Mike; Kimberger, Oliver; McGovern, Paul D; Albrecht, Mark C

2013-08-01

Forced-air warming devices are effective for the prevention of surgical hypothermia. However, these devices intake nonsterile floor-level air, and it is unknown whether they have adequate filtration measures to prevent the internal buildup or emission of microbial contaminants. We rated the intake filtration efficiency of a popular current-generation forced-air warming device (Bair Hugger model 750, Arizant Healthcare) using a monodisperse sodium chloride aerosol in the laboratory. We further sampled 23 forced-air warming devices (same model) in daily hospital use for internal microbial buildup and airborne-contamination emissions via swabbing and particle counting. Laboratory testing found the intake filter to be 63.8% efficient. Swabbing detected microorganisms within 100% of the forced-air warming blowers sampled, with isolates of coagulase-negative staphylococci, mold, and micrococci identified. Particle counting showed 96% of forced-air warming blowers to be emitting significant levels of internally generated airborne contaminants out of the hose end. These findings highlight the need for upgraded intake filtration, preferably high-efficiency particulate air filtration (99.97% efficient), on current-generation forced-air warming devices to reduce contamination buildup and emission risks.

Stronger warming effects on microbial abundances in colder regions

DOE PAGES

Chen, Ji; Luo, Yiqi; Xia, Jianyang; ...

2015-12-10

Soil microbes play critical roles in regulating terrestrial carbon (C) cycle and its feedback to climate change. However, it is still unclear how the soil microbial community and abundance respond to future climate change scenarios. In this meta-analysis, we synthesized the responses of microbial community and abundance to experimental warming from 64 published field studies. Our results showed that warming significantly increased soil microbial abundance by 7.6% on average. When grouped by vegetation or soil types, tundras and histosols had the strongest microbial responses to warming with increased microbial, fungal, and bacterial abundances by 15.0%, 9.5% and 37.0% in tundra,more » and 16.5%, 13.2% and 13.3% in histosols, respectively. We found significant negative relationships of the response ratios of microbial, fungal and bacterial abundances with the mean annual temperature, indicating that warming had stronger effects in colder than warmer regions. Moreover, the response ratios of microbial abundance to warming were positively correlated with those of soil respiration. Our results therefore indicate that the large quantities of C stored in colder regions are likely to be more vulnerable to climate warming than the soil C stored in other warmer regions.« less

Stronger warming effects on microbial abundances in colder regions

PubMed Central

Chen, Ji; Luo, Yiqi; Xia, Jianyang; Jiang, Lifen; Zhou, Xuhui; Lu, Meng; Liang, Junyi; Shi, Zheng; Shelton, Shelby; Cao, Junji

2015-01-01

Soil microbes play critical roles in regulating terrestrial carbon (C) cycle and its feedback to climate change. However, it is still unclear how the soil microbial community and abundance respond to future climate change scenarios. In this meta-analysis, we synthesized the responses of microbial community and abundance to experimental warming from 64 published field studies. Our results showed that warming significantly increased soil microbial abundance by 7.6% on average. When grouped by vegetation or soil types, tundras and histosols had the strongest microbial responses to warming with increased microbial, fungal, and bacterial abundances by 15.0%, 9.5% and 37.0% in tundra, and 16.5%, 13.2% and 13.3% in histosols, respectively. We found significant negative relationships of the response ratios of microbial, fungal and bacterial abundances with the mean annual temperature, indicating that warming had stronger effects in colder than warmer regions. Moreover, the response ratios of microbial abundance to warming were positively correlated with those of soil respiration. Our findings therefore indicate that the large quantities of C stored in colder regions are likely to be more vulnerable to climate warming than the soil C stored in other warmer regions. PMID:26658882

[Effects of warming and precipitation exclusion on soil N2O fluxes in subtropical forests.

PubMed

Tang, Cai di; Zhang, Zheng; Cai, Xiao Zhen; Guo, Jian Fen; Yang, Yu Sheng

2017-10-01

In order to explore how soil warming and precipitation exclusion influence soil N2O fluxes, we used related functional genes as markers, and four treatments were set up, i.e. , control (CT), soil warming (W, 5 ℃ above the ambient temperature of the control), 50% precipitation reduction (P), soil warming plus 50% precipitation reduction (WP). The results showed that precipitation exclusion reduced soil ammonium nitrogen concentration significantly. Soil warming decreased soil N2O flux and soil denitrification potential significantly. Soil microbial biomass nitrogen (MBN) in warming treatment (W) and precipitation exclusion treatment (P) was significantly lower than that in the control. The amoA gene abundance of AOA was negatively correlated with MBN and ammonium nitrogen contents, but neither soil nitrification potential nor soil N2O flux was correlated with the amoA gene abundance of AOA. Path analysis showed that the denitrification potential affected soil N2O flux directly, while microbial biomass phosphorus (MBP) and warming affected soil N2O flux indirectly through their direct effects on denitrification potential. Temperature might be the main driver of N2O flux in subtropical forest soils. Global warming would reduce N2O emissions from subtropical forest soils.

Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time.

PubMed

Elmendorf, Sarah C; Henry, Gregory H R; Hollister, Robert D; Björk, Robert G; Bjorkman, Anne D; Callaghan, Terry V; Collier, Laura Siegwart; Cooper, Elisabeth J; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Day, Thomas A; Fosaa, Anna Maria; Gould, William A; Grétarsdóttir, Járngerður; Harte, John; Hermanutz, Luise; Hik, David S; Hofgaard, Annika; Jarrad, Frith; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Keuper, Frida; Klanderud, Kari; Klein, Julia A; Koh, Saewan; Kudo, Gaku; Lang, Simone I; Loewen, Val; May, Jeremy L; Mercado, Joel; Michelsen, Anders; Molau, Ulf; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Oberbauer, Steven F; Pieper, Sara; Post, Eric; Rixen, Christian; Robinson, Clare H; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Shaver, Gaius R; Stenström, Anna; Tolvanen, Anne; Totland, Orjan; Troxler, Tiffany; Wahren, Carl-Henrik; Webber, Patrick J; Welker, Jeffery M; Wookey, Philip A

2012-02-01

Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation - and associated ecosystem consequences - have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Assessing the magnitude and timing of anthropogenic warming of a shallow aquifer: example from Virginia Beach, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eggleston, John R.; McCoy, Kurt J.

2015-01-01

Groundwater temperature measurements in a shallow coastal aquifer in Virginia Beach, Virginia, USA, suggest groundwater warming of +4.1 °C relative to deeper geothermal gradients. Observed warming is related to timing and depth of influence of two potential thermal drivers—atmospheric temperature increases and urbanization. Results indicate that up to 30 % of groundwater warming at the water table can be attributed to atmospheric warming while up to 70 % of warming can be attributed to urbanization. Groundwater temperature readings to 30-m depth correlate positively with percentage of impervious cover and negatively with percentage of tree canopy cover; thus, these two land-use metrics explain up to 70 % of warming at the water table. Analytical and numerical modeling results indicate that an average vertical groundwater temperature profile for the study area, constructed from repeat measurement at 11 locations over 15 months, is consistent with the timing of land-use change over the past century in Virginia Beach. The magnitude of human-induced warming at the water table (+4.1 °C) is twice the current seasonal temperature variation, indicating the potential for ecological impacts on wetlands and estuaries receiving groundwater discharge from shallow aquifers.

Pseudoinefficacy: negative feelings from children who cannot be helped reduce warm glow for children who can be helped

PubMed Central

Västfjäll, Daniel; Slovic, Paul; Mayorga, Marcus

2015-01-01

In a great many situations where we are asked to aid persons whose lives are endangered, we are not able to help everyone. What are the emotional and motivational consequences of “not helping all”? In a series of experiments, we demonstrate that negative affect arising from children that could not be helped decreases the warm glow of positive feeling associated with aiding the children who can be helped. This demotivation from the children outside of our reach may be a form of “pseudoinefficacy” that is non-rational. We should not be deterred from helping whomever we can because there are others we are not able to help. PMID:26042058

Field warming experiments shed light on the wheat yield response to temperature in China

PubMed Central

Zhao, Chuang; Piao, Shilong; Huang, Yao; Wang, Xuhui; Ciais, Philippe; Huang, Mengtian; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Peng, Shushi

2016-01-01

Wheat growth is sensitive to temperature, but the effect of future warming on yield is uncertain. Here, focusing on China, we compiled 46 observations of the sensitivity of wheat yield to temperature change (SY,T, yield change per °C) from field warming experiments and 102 SY,T estimates from local process-based and statistical models. The average SY,T from field warming experiments, local process-based models and statistical models is −0.7±7.8(±s.d.)% per °C, −5.7±6.5% per °C and 0.4±4.4% per °C, respectively. Moreover, SY,T is different across regions and warming experiments indicate positive SY,T values in regions where growing-season mean temperature is low, and water supply is not limiting, and negative values elsewhere. Gridded crop model simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project appear to capture the spatial pattern of SY,T deduced from warming observations. These results from local manipulative experiments could be used to improve crop models in the future. PMID:27853151

31 CFR 356.20 - How does the Treasury determine auction awards?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... and bond issues. We set the interest rate at a 1/8 of one percent increment. If a Treasury inflation-protected securities auction results in a negative or zero yield, the interest rate will be set at zero, and...

A systematic review of the effects of upper body warm-up on performance and injury.

PubMed

McCrary, J Matt; Ackermann, Bronwen J; Halaki, Mark

2015-07-01

This systematic review was conducted to identify the impact of upper body warm-up on performance and injury prevention outcomes. Web of Science, MEDLINE, SPORTDiscus, PsycINFO and Cochrane databases were searched using terms related to upper extremity warm-up. Inclusion criteria were English language randomised controlled trials from peer-reviewed journals in which investigation of upper body warm-up on performance and injury prevention outcomes was a primary aim. Included studies were assessed for methodological quality using the PEDro scale. A wide variety of warm-up modes and outcomes precluded meta-analysis except for one group of studies. The majority of warm-ups were assessed as having 'positive', 'neutral', 'negative' or 'specific' effects on outcomes. Thirty-one studies met the inclusion criteria with 21 rated as having 'good' methodological quality. The studies investigated a total of 25 warm-up modes and 43 outcome factors that could be grouped into eight mode and performance outcome categories. No studies of upper body warm-up effects on injury prevention were discovered. Strong research-based evidence was found for the following: high-load dynamic warm-ups enhance power and strength performance; warm-up swings with a standard weight baseball bat are most effective for enhancing bat speed; short-duration static stretching warm-up has no effect on power outcomes; and passive heating/cooling is a largely ineffective warm-up mode. A clear knowledge gap in upper body warm-up literature is the lack of investigation of injury prevention outcomes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Climate Response to Negative Greenhouse Gas Radiative Forcing in Polar Winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flanner, M. G.; Huang, X.; Chen, X.; Krinner, G.

2018-02-01

Greenhouse gas (GHG) additions to Earth's atmosphere initially reduce global outgoing longwave radiation, thereby warming the planet. In select environments with temperature inversions, however, increased GHG concentrations can actually increase local outgoing longwave radiation. Negative top of atmosphere and effective radiative forcing (ERF) from this situation give the impression that local surface temperatures could cool in response to GHG increases. Here we consider an extreme scenario in which GHG concentrations are increased only within the warmest layers of winter near-surface inversions of the Arctic and Antarctic. We find, using a fully coupled Earth system model, that the underlying surface warms despite the GHG addition exerting negative ERF and cooling the troposphere in the vicinity of the GHG increase. This unique radiative forcing and thermal response is facilitated by the high stability of the polar winter atmosphere, which inhibit thermal mixing and amplify the impact of surface radiative forcing on surface temperature. These findings also suggest that strategies to exploit negative ERF via injections of short-lived GHGs into inversion layers would likely be unsuccessful in cooling the planetary surface.

Review of CO2 Reduction Technologies using Mineral Carbonation of Iron and Steel Making Slag in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norhana Selamat, Siti; Nor, Nik Hisyamudin Muhd; Rashid, Muhammad Hanif Abdul; Fauzi Ahmad, Mohd; Mohamad, Fariza; Ismail, Al Emran; Fahrul Hassan, Mohd; Turan, Faiz Mohd; Zain, Mohd Zamzuri Mohd; Abu Bakar, Elmi; Seiji, Yokoyama

2017-10-01

Climate change, greenhouse gas effect, and global warming is envisioning to turn more awful and more terrible by year. Since the leading cause of global warming is uncontrolled CO2 in atmosphere. The amount of unused steel slag is expected to increment later on, steel industries is one of the mechanical industries that contribute the CO2 emission. That because this businesses deliver carbon in light of powers reductant and substantial volume of steel. The changes of atmosphere these day is truly developing concern and that make steel creator are confronted with test of discovering methods for bringing down CO2 emission. Malaysia is working decidedly in the diminishment of CO2 gas. There are a few techniques in decreasing the amount of CO2 in the air as underlined by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), an organization under the United Country however CCS is an extremely encouraging innovation to moderate CO2 emission in air. Mineral carbonation is another technique to store carbon dioxide permanently, long term stability and vast capacity.

Ocean warming ameliorates the negative effects of ocean acidification on Paracentrotus lividus larval development and settlement.

PubMed

García, Eliseba; Clemente, Sabrina; Hernández, José Carlos

2015-09-01

Ocean warming and acidification both impact marine ecosystems. All organisms have a limited body temperature range, outside of which they become functionally constrained. Beyond the absolute extremes of this range, they cannot survive. It is hypothesized that some stressors can present effects that interact with other environmental variables, such as ocean acidification (OA) that have the potential to narrow the thermal range where marine species are functional. An organism's response to ocean acidification can therefore be highly dependent on thermal conditions. This study evaluated the combined effects of predicted ocean warming conditions and acidification, on survival, development, and settlement, of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus. Nine combined treatments of temperature (19.0, 20.5 and 22.5 °C) and pH (8.1, 7.7 and 7.4 units) were carried out. All of the conditions tested were either within the current natural ranges of seawater pH and temperature or are within the ranges that have been predicted for the end of the century, in the sampling region (Canary Islands). Our results indicated that the negative effects of low pH on P. lividus larval development and settlement will be mitigated by a rise in seawater temperature, up to a thermotolerance threshold. Larval development and settlement performance of the sea urchin P. lividus was enhanced by a slight increase in temperature, even under lowered pH conditions. However, the species did show negative responses to the levels of ocean warming and acidification that have been predicted for the turn of the century. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multidecadal trends in aerosol radiative forcing over the Arctic: Contribution of changes in anthropogenic aerosol to Arctic warming since 1980

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breider, Thomas J.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Ge, Cui; Wang, Jun; Payer Sulprizio, Melissa; Croft, Betty; Ridley, David A.; McConnell, Joseph R.; Sharma, Sangeeta; Husain, Liaquat; Dutkiewicz, Vincent A.; Eleftheriadis, Konstantinos; Skov, Henrik; Hopke, Phillip K.

2017-03-01

Arctic observations show large decreases in the concentrations of sulfate and black carbon (BC) aerosols since the early 1980s. These near-term climate-forcing pollutants perturb the radiative balance of the atmosphere and may have played an important role in recent Arctic warming. We use the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model to construct a 3-D representation of Arctic aerosols that is generally consistent with observations and their trends from 1980 to 2010. Observations at Arctic surface sites show significant decreases in sulfate and BC mass concentrations of 2-3% per year. We find that anthropogenic aerosols yield a negative forcing over the Arctic, with an average 2005-2010 Arctic shortwave radiative forcing (RF) of -0.19 ± 0.05 W m-2 at the top of atmosphere (TOA). Anthropogenic sulfate in our study yields more strongly negative forcings over the Arctic troposphere in spring (-1.17 ± 0.10 W m-2) than previously reported. From 1980 to 2010, TOA negative RF by Arctic aerosol declined, from -0.67 ± 0.06 W m-2 to -0.19 ± 0.05 W m-2, yielding a net TOA RF of +0.48 ± 0.06 W m-2. The net positive RF is due almost entirely to decreases in anthropogenic sulfate loading over the Arctic. We estimate that 1980-2010 trends in aerosol-radiation interactions over the Arctic and Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have contributed a net warming at the Arctic surface of +0.27 ± 0.04 K, roughly one quarter of the observed warming. Our study does not consider BC emissions from gas flaring nor the regional climate response to aerosol-cloud interactions or BC deposition on snow.

Negative-pressure wound therapy I: the paradox of negative-pressure wound therapy.

PubMed

Kairinos, Nicolas; Solomons, Michael; Hudson, Donald A

2009-02-01

Does negative-pressure wound therapy reduce or increase the pressure of wound tissues? This seemingly obvious question has never been addressed by a study on living tissues. The aim of this study was to evaluate the nature of tissue pressure changes in relation to negative-pressure wound therapy. Three negative-pressure wound therapy dressing configurations were evaluated-circumferential, noncircumferential, and those within a cavity-on 15 human wounds, with five wounds in each category. Tissue pressure changes were recorded (using a strain gauge sensor) for each 75-mmHg increment in suction, up to -450 mmHg. In the circumferential and noncircumferential groups, tissue pressure was also measured over a 48-hour period at a set suction pressure of -125 mmHg (n = 10). In all three groups, mean tissue pressure increased proportionately to the amount of suction applied (p < 0.0005). Mean tissue pressure increments resulting from the circumferential dressings were significantly higher than those resulting from the noncircumferential (p < 0.0005) or cavity group (p < 0.0005); however, there was no significant difference between the latter two groups (p = 0.269). Over the 48-hour period, there was a significant mean reduction in the (increased) tissue pressure (p < 0.04 for circumferential and p < 0.0005 for noncircumferential), but in only three of 10 cases did this reduce to pressures less than those before dressing application. Negative-pressure wound therapy increases tissue pressure proportionately to the amount of suction, although this becomes less pronounced over 48 hours. This suggests that negative-pressure wound therapy dressings should be used with caution on tissues with compromised perfusion, particularly when they are circumferential.

Can hip abduction and external rotation discriminate sacroiliac joint pain?

PubMed

Adhia, Divya Bharatkumar; Tumilty, Steve; Mani, Ramakrishnan; Milosavljevic, Stephan; Bussey, Melanie D

2016-02-01

The primary aim of the study is to determine if Hip Abduction and External Rotation (HABER) test is capable of reproducing familiar pain in individuals with low back pain (LBP) of sacroiliac joint (SIJ) origin (SIJ-positive) when compared with LBP of Non-SIJ origin (SIJ-negative). If so, the secondary aim is to determine the diagnostic accuracy of HABER test against the reference standard of pain provocation tests, and to determine which increments of the HABER test has highest sensitivity and specificity for identifying SIJ-positive individuals. Single-blinded diagnostic accuracy study. Participants [n(122)] between ages of 18-50 y, suffering from chronic non-specific LBP (≥3 months) volunteered in the study. An experienced musculoskeletal physiotherapist evaluated and classified participants into either SIJ-positive [n(45)] or SIJ-negative [n(77)], based on reference standard of pain provocation tests [≥3 positive tests = SIJ-positive]. Another musculoskeletal physiotherapist, blinded to clinical groups, evaluated participants for reproduction of familiar pain during each increment (10°, 20°, 30°, 40°, and 50°) of HABER test. The HABER test reproduced familiar pain in SIJ-positive individuals when compared with SIJ-negative individuals [p (0.001), R(2) (0.38), Exp(β) (5.95-10.32)], and demonstrated moderate level of sensitivity (67%-78%) and specificity (71%-72%) for identifying SIJ-positive individuals. Receiver operator curve analysis demonstrated that the HABER increments of ≥30° have the highest sensitivity (83%-100%) and specificity (52%-64%). The HABER test is capable of reproducing familiar pain in SIJ-positive LBP individuals and has moderate levels of sensitivity and specificity for identifying SIJ-positive LBP individuals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Air pollution and emergency department visits for depression in Edmonton, Canada.

PubMed

Szyszkowicz, Mieczysław

2007-01-01

Depression is a common cause of morbidity. Sufferers are very sensitive to many external factors. Emergency department (ED) visits for this condition can be associated with the concentration of ambient air pollutants. The study objective was to examine and assess the associations between ED visits for depression and ambient air pollution. The present study analyzed 15,556 ED visits for depression (ICD-9: 311) at Edmonton hospitals between 1992 and 2002. The data were clustered based on the triplet {year, month, day of the week}. The generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) technique was used to regress the logarithm of the clustered counts for ED visits for depression on the levels of air pollutants (CO, NO2, SO2, O3, PM10 and PM2.5) and the meteorological variables. The number of ED visits for depression was analyzed separately for all patients, and males and females. An analysis by season was also conducted: for the whole year (I-XII), warm season (IV-IX), and cold season (X-III). After adjusting for temperature and relative humidity, the following increments in daily depression-related ED visits could be noted: 6.9% (95% CI: 1.3, 12.9) for carbon monoxide (CO) for all patients in warm season; 7.4% (95% CI: 0.5, 14.8) for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) for female patients in warm season; 4.5% (95% CI: 0.1, 9.1) for sulphur dioxide (SO2) for female patients in warm season; 6.9% (95% CI: 0.6, 13.6) for ground level ozone (O3, 1-day lagged) for female patients in warm season; 7.2% (95% CI: 2.7, 12.0) for particulate matter (PM10) for females in cold season; and 7.2% (95% CI: 2.0, 12.8) for particulate matter (PM2.5) for females in cold season. The findings provide support for the hypothesis that ED visits for depression are associated with exposure to ambient air pollution.

Influence of basin- and local-scale environmental conditions on nearshore production in the northeast Pacific Ocean

USGS Publications Warehouse

von Biela, Vanessa R.; Zimmerman, Christian E.; Kruse, Gordon H.; Mueter, Franz J.; Black, Bryan A.; Douglas, David C.; Bodkin, James L.

2016-01-01

Nearshore marine habitats are productive and vulnerable owing to their connections to pelagic and terrestrial landscapes. To understand how ocean basin- and local-scale conditions may influence nearshore species, we developed an annual index of nearshore production (spanning the period 1972–2010) from growth increments recorded in otoliths of representative pelagic-feeding (Black Rockfish Sebastes melanops) and benthic-feeding (Kelp Greenling Hexagrammos decagrammus) nearshore-resident fishes at nine sites in the California Current and Alaska Coastal Current systems. We explored the influence of basin- and local-scale conditions across all seasons at lags of up to 2 years to represent changes in prey quantity (1- or 2-year time lags) and quality (within-year relationships). Relationships linking fish growth to basin-scale (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, and multivariate El Niño–Southern Oscillation index) and local-scale (sea surface temperature, sea surface height anomalies, upwelling index, photosynthetically active radiation, and freshwater discharge) environmental conditions varied by species and current system. Growth of Black Rockfish increased with cool basin-scale conditions in the California Current and warm local-scale conditions in the Alaska Coastal Current, consistent with existing hypotheses linking climate to pelagic production on continental shelves in the respective regions. Relationships for Kelp Greenlings in the California Current were complex, with faster growth related to within-year warm conditions and lagged-year cool conditions. These opposing, lag-dependent relationships may reflect differences in conditions that promote quantity versus quality of benthic invertebrate prey in the California Current. Thus, we hypothesize that benthic production is maximized by alternating cool and warm years, as benthic invertebrate recruitment is food limited during warm years while growth is temperature limited by cool years in the California Current. On the other hand, Kelp Greenlings grew faster during and subsequent to warm conditions at basin and local scales in the Alaska Coastal Current.

Vulnerability to climate warming of Liolaemus pictus (Squamata, Liolaemidae), a lizard from the cold temperate climate in Patagonia, Argentina.

PubMed

Kubisch, Erika Leticia; Fernández, Jimena Beatriz; Ibargüengoytía, Nora Ruth

2016-02-01

The vulnerability of populations and species to global warming depends not only on the environmental temperatures, but also on the behavioral and physiological abilities to respond to these changes. In this sense, the knowledge of an organism's sensitivity to temperature variation is essential to predict potential responses to climate warming. In particular, it is interesting to know how close species are to their thermal limits in nature and whether physiological plasticity is a potential short-term response to warming climates. We exposed Liolaemus pictus lizards, from northern Patagonia, to either 21 or 31 °C for 30 days to compare the effects of these treatments on thermal sensitivity in 1 and 0.2 m runs, preferred body temperature (T pref), panting threshold (T pant), and critical minimum temperature (CTMin). Furthermore, we measured the availability of thermal microenvironments (operative temperatures; T e) to measure how close L. pictus is, in nature, to its optimal locomotor performance (T o) and thermal limits. L. pictus showed limited physiological plasticity, since the acclimation temperature (21 and 31 °C) did not affect the locomotor performance nor did it affect T pref, the T pant, or the CTMin. The mean T e was close to T o and was 17 °C lower than the CTMax. The results suggest that L. pictus, in a climate change scenario, could be vulnerable to the predicted temperature increment, as this species currently lives in an environment with temperatures close to their highest locomotor temperature threshold, and because they showed limited acclimation capacity to adjust to new thermal conditions by physiological plasticity. Nevertheless, L. pictus can run at 80 % or faster of its maximum speed across a wide range of temperatures near T o, an ability which would attenuate the impact of global warming.

Association between mean and interannual equatorial Indian Ocean subsurface temperature bias in a coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivas, G.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Prasad, K. V. S. R.; Karmakar, Ananya; Parekh, Anant

2018-03-01

In the present study the association between mean and interannual subsurface temperature bias over the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) is investigated during boreal summer (June through September; JJAS) in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) hindcast. Anomalously high subsurface warm bias (greater than 3 °C) over the eastern EIO (EEIO) region is noted in CFSv2 during summer, which is higher compared to other parts of the tropical Indian Ocean. Prominent eastward current bias in the upper 100 m over the EIO region induced by anomalous westerly winds is primarily responsible for subsurface temperature bias. The eastward currents transport warm water to the EEIO and is pushed down to subsurface due to downwelling. Thus biases in both horizontal and vertical currents over the EIO region support subsurface warm bias. The evolution of systematic subsurface warm bias in the model shows strong interannual variability. These maximum subsurface warming episodes over the EEIO are mainly associated with La Niña like forcing. Strong convergence of low level winds over the EEIO and Maritime continent enhanced the westerly wind bias over the EIO during maximum warming years. This low level convergence of wind is induced by the bias in the gradient in the mean sea level pressure with positive bias over western EIO and negative bias over EEIO and parts of western Pacific. Consequently, changes in the atmospheric circulation associated with La Niña like conditions affected the ocean dynamics by modulating the current bias thereby enhancing the subsurface warm bias over the EEIO. It is identified that EEIO subsurface warming is stronger when La Niña co-occurred with negative Indian Ocean Dipole events as compared to La Niña only years in the model. Ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments forced with CFSv2 winds clearly support our hypothesis that ocean dynamics influenced by westerly winds bias is primarily responsible for the strong subsurface warm bias over the EEIO. This study advocates the importance of understanding the ability of the models in representing the large scale air-sea interactions over the tropics and their impact on ocean biases for better monsoon forecast.

Climate, ocean circulation, and sea level changes under stabilization and overshoot pathways to 1.5 K warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palter, Jaime B.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Paynter, David; John, Jasmin G.

2018-06-01

The Paris Agreement has initiated a scientific debate on the role that carbon removal - or net negative emissions - might play in achieving less than 1.5 K of global mean surface warming by 2100. Here, we probe the sensitivity of a comprehensive Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) to three different atmospheric CO2 concentration pathways, two of which arrive at 1.5 K of warming in 2100 by very different pathways. We run five ensemble members of each of these simulations: (1) a standard Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5) scenario, which produces 2 K of surface warming by 2100 in our model; (2) a stabilization pathway in which atmospheric CO2 concentration never exceeds 440 ppm and the global mean temperature rise is approximately 1.5 K by 2100; and (3) an overshoot pathway that passes through 2 K of warming at mid-century, before ramping down atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as if using carbon removal, to end at 1.5 K of warming at 2100. Although the global mean surface temperature change in response to the overshoot pathway is similar to the stabilization pathway in 2100, this similarity belies several important differences in other climate metrics, such as warming over land masses, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean acidification, sea ice coverage, and the global mean sea level change and its regional expressions. In 2100, the overshoot ensemble shows a greater global steric sea level rise and weaker AMOC mass transport than in the stabilization scenario, with both of these metrics close to the ensemble mean of RCP4.5. There is strong ocean surface cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean in response to overshoot forcing due to perturbations in the ocean circulation. Thus, overshoot forcing in this model reduces the rate of sea ice loss in the Labrador, Nordic, Ross, and Weddell seas relative to the stabilized pathway, suggesting a negative radiative feedback in response to the early rapid warming. Finally, the ocean perturbation in response to warming leads to strong pathway dependence of sea level rise in northern North American cities, with overshoot forcing producing up to 10 cm of additional sea level rise by 2100 relative to stabilization forcing.

Climatic controls of aboveground net primary production in semi-arid grasslands along a latitudinal gradient portend low sensitivity to warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mowll, Whitney; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Cherwin, Karie; Smith, Anine; Symstad, Amy J.; Vermeire, Lance; Collins, Scott L.; Smith, Melinda D.; Knapp, Alan K.

2015-01-01

Although climate models forecast warmer temperatures with a high degree of certainty, precipitation is the primary driver of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in most grasslands. Conversely, variations in temperature seldom are related to patterns of ANPP. Thus forecasting responses to warming is a challenge, and raises the question: how sensitive will grassland ANPP be to warming? We evaluated climate and multi-year ANPP data (67 years) from eight western US grasslands arrayed along mean annual temperature (MAT; ~7-14 °C) and mean annual precipitation (MAP; ~250-500 mm) gradients. Weused regression and analysis of covariance to assess relationships between ANPP and temperature, as well as precipitation (annual and growing season) to evaluate temperature sensitivity of ANPP. We also related ANPP to the standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI), which combines precipitation and evapotranspiration to better represent moisture available for plant growth. Regression models indicated that variation in growing season temperature was negatively related to total and graminoid ANPP, but precipitation was a stronger predictor than temperature. Growing season temperature was also a significant parameter in more complex models, but again precipitation was consistently a stronger predictor of ANPP. Surprisingly, neither annual nor growing season SPEI were as strongly related to ANPP as precipitation. We conclude that forecasted warming likely will affect ANPP in these grasslands, but that predicting temperature effects from natural climatic gradients is difficult. This is because, unlike precipitation, warming effects can be positive or negative and moderated by shifts in the C3/C4 ratios of plant communities.

The Incremental Utility of Emotion Regulation but Not Emotion Reactivity in Non-Suicidal Self-Injury

PubMed Central

Zelkowitz, Rachel L.; Cole, David A.; Han, Gloria T.; Tomarken, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

This study assessed the incremental utility of emotion reactivity and emotion regulation in relation to non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI). Participants included 379 college students aged 18-22 who completed self-report measures of emotion regulation, emotion reactivity, and NSSI. Emotion regulation was significantly related to NSSI both ignoring and controlling for reactivity, but the reverse was not true. Participants' use of NSSI for affect regulation appeared to moderate this relation. Findings support emotion regulation deficits as a target for intervention over-and-above heightened emotion reactivity, especially in those who use NSSI to regulate negative affect. PMID:26945972

Effects of different re-warm up activities in football players' performance.

PubMed

Abade, Eduardo; Sampaio, Jaime; Gonçalves, Bruno; Baptista, Jorge; Alves, Alberto; Viana, João

2017-01-01

Warm up routines are commonly used to optimize football performance and prevent injuries. Yet, official pre-match protocols may require players to passively rest for approximately 10 to 15 minutes between the warm up and the beginning of the match. Therefore, the aim of this study was to explore the effect of different re-warm up activities on the physical performance of football players. Twenty-Two Portuguese elite under-19 football players participated in the study conducted during the competitive season. Different re-warm up protocols were performed 6 minutes after the same standardized warm up in 4 consecutive days in a crossover controlled approach: without, eccentric, plyometric and repeated changes of direction. Vertical jump and Sprint performances were tested immediately after warm up and 12 minutes after warm up. Results showed that repeated changes of direction and plyometrics presented beneficial effects to jump and sprint. Different practical implications may be taken from the eccentric protocol since a vertical jump impairment was observed, suggesting a possibly harmful effect. The absence of re-warm up activities may be detrimental to players' physical performance. However, the inclusion of re-warm up prior to match is a complex issue, since the manipulation of volume, intensity and recovery may positively or negatively affect the subsequent performance. In fact, this exploratory study shows that eccentric exercise may be harmful for physical performance when performed prior a football match. However, plyometric and repeated changes of direction exercises seem to be simple, quick and efficient activities to attenuate losses in vertical jump and sprint capacity after warm up. Coaches should aim to develop individual optimal exercise modes in order to optimize physical performance after re warm activities.

Competing Influences of Anthropogenic Warming, ENSO, and Plant Physiology on Future Terrestrial Aridity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bonfils, Céline; Anderson, Gemma; Santer, Benjamin D.

The 2011–16 California drought illustrates that drought-prone areas do not always experience relief once a favorable phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) returns. In the twenty-first century, such an expectation is unrealistic in regions where global warming induces an increase in terrestrial aridity larger than the changes in aridity driven by ENSO variability. This premise is also flawed in areas where precipitation supply cannot offset the global warming–induced increase in evaporative demand. Here, atmosphere-only experiments are analyzed to identify land regions where aridity is currently sensitive to ENSO and where projected future changes in mean aridity exceed the range causedmore » by ENSO variability. Insights into the drivers of these changes in aridity are obtained using simulations with the incremental addition of three different factors to the current climate: ocean warming, vegetation response to elevated CO 2 levels, and intensified CO 2 radiative forcing. The effect of ocean warming overwhelms the range of ENSO-driven temperature variability worldwide, increasing potential evapotranspiration (PET) in most ENSO-sensitive regions. Additionally, about 39% of the regions currently sensitive to ENSO will likely receive less precipitation in the future, independent of the ENSO phase. Consequently aridity increases in 67%–72% of the ENSO-sensitive area. When both radiative and physiological effects are considered, the area affected by arid conditions rises to 75%–79% when using PET-derived measures of aridity, but declines to 41% when an aridity indicator for total soil moisture is employed. This reduction mainly occurs because plant stomatal resistance increases under enhanced CO 2 concentrations, resulting in improved plant water-use efficiency, and hence reduced evapotranspiration and soil desiccation. Imposing CO 2-invariant stomatal resistance may overestimate future drying in PET-derived indices.« less

An Intercomparison of Changes Associated with Earth's Lower Tropospheric Temperature Using Traditional and AMIP-Style Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marquardt-Collow, Allison B.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Cullather, Richard I.

2017-01-01

Reanalyses have become an integral tool for evaluating regional and global climate variations, and an important component of this is modifications to the energy budget. Reductions in Arctic Sea ice extent has induced an albedo feedback, causing the Arctic to warm more rapidly than anywhere else in the world, referred to as "Arctic Amplification." This has been demonstrated by observations and numerous reanalyses, including the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). However, the Arctic Amplification signal is non-existent in a ten member ensemble of the MERRA-2 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (M2AMIP) simulations, using the same prescribed climate forcing, including Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and ice. An evaluation of the temperature tendency within the lower troposphere due to radiation, moisture, and dynamics as well as the surface energy budget in MERRA-2 and M2AMIP will demonstrate that despite identical prescribed SSTs and sea ice in both versions, enhanced warming in the Arctic in MERRA-2 is in response to the analysis increment tendency due to temperature observations. Furthermore, the role of boundary conditions, model biases and changes in observing systems on the Arctic Amplification signal will be assessed. Literature on the topic of Arctic Amplification demonstrates that the enhanced warming begins in the mid-1990s. Anomalously warm Arctic SST in the early time period of MERRA-2 can mute the trend in Arctic lower troposphere temperature without the constraint of observations in M2AMIP. Additionally, MERRA-2 uses three distinct datasets of SST and sea ice concentration, which also plays a role.

Competing Influences of Anthropogenic Warming, ENSO, and Plant Physiology on Future Terrestrial Aridity

DOE PAGES

Bonfils, Céline; Anderson, Gemma; Santer, Benjamin D.; ...

2017-07-27

The 2011–16 California drought illustrates that drought-prone areas do not always experience relief once a favorable phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) returns. In the twenty-first century, such an expectation is unrealistic in regions where global warming induces an increase in terrestrial aridity larger than the changes in aridity driven by ENSO variability. This premise is also flawed in areas where precipitation supply cannot offset the global warming–induced increase in evaporative demand. Here, atmosphere-only experiments are analyzed to identify land regions where aridity is currently sensitive to ENSO and where projected future changes in mean aridity exceed the range causedmore » by ENSO variability. Insights into the drivers of these changes in aridity are obtained using simulations with the incremental addition of three different factors to the current climate: ocean warming, vegetation response to elevated CO 2 levels, and intensified CO 2 radiative forcing. The effect of ocean warming overwhelms the range of ENSO-driven temperature variability worldwide, increasing potential evapotranspiration (PET) in most ENSO-sensitive regions. Additionally, about 39% of the regions currently sensitive to ENSO will likely receive less precipitation in the future, independent of the ENSO phase. Consequently aridity increases in 67%–72% of the ENSO-sensitive area. When both radiative and physiological effects are considered, the area affected by arid conditions rises to 75%–79% when using PET-derived measures of aridity, but declines to 41% when an aridity indicator for total soil moisture is employed. This reduction mainly occurs because plant stomatal resistance increases under enhanced CO 2 concentrations, resulting in improved plant water-use efficiency, and hence reduced evapotranspiration and soil desiccation. Imposing CO 2-invariant stomatal resistance may overestimate future drying in PET-derived indices.« less

Gender effect on pre-attentive change detection in major depressive disorder patients revealed by auditory MMN.

PubMed

Qiao, Zhengxue; Yang, Aiying; Qiu, Xiaohui; Yang, Xiuxian; Zhang, Congpei; Zhu, Xiongzhao; He, Jincai; Wang, Lin; Bai, Bing; Sun, Hailian; Zhao, Lun; Yang, Yanjie

2015-10-30

Gender differences in rates of major depressive disorder (MDD) are well established, but gender differences in cognitive function have been little studied. Auditory mismatch negativity (MMN) was used to investigate gender differences in pre-attentive information processing in first episode MDD. In the deviant-standard reverse oddball paradigm, duration auditory MMN was obtained in 30 patients (15 males) and 30 age-/education-matched controls. Over frontal-central areas, mean amplitude of increment MMN (to a 150-ms deviant tone) was smaller in female than male patients; there was no sex difference in decrement MMN (to a 50-ms deviant tone). Neither increment nor decrement MMN differed between female and male patients over temporal areas. Frontal-central MMN and temporal MMN did not differ between male and female controls in any condition. Over frontal-central areas, mean amplitude of increment MMN was smaller in female patients than female controls; there was no difference in decrement MMN. Neither increment nor decrement MMN differed between female patients and female controls over temporal areas. Frontal-central MMN and temporal MMN did not differ between male patients and male controls. Mean amplitude of increment MMN in female patients did not correlate with symptoms, suggesting this sex-specific deficit is a trait- not a state-dependent phenomenon. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incremental online learning in high dimensions.

PubMed

Vijayakumar, Sethu; D'Souza, Aaron; Schaal, Stefan

2005-12-01

Locally weighted projection regression (LWPR) is a new algorithm for incremental nonlinear function approximation in high-dimensional spaces with redundant and irrelevant input dimensions. At its core, it employs nonparametric regression with locally linear models. In order to stay computationally efficient and numerically robust, each local model performs the regression analysis with a small number of univariate regressions in selected directions in input space in the spirit of partial least squares regression. We discuss when and how local learning techniques can successfully work in high-dimensional spaces and review the various techniques for local dimensionality reduction before finally deriving the LWPR algorithm. The properties of LWPR are that it (1) learns rapidly with second-order learning methods based on incremental training, (2) uses statistically sound stochastic leave-one-out cross validation for learning without the need to memorize training data, (3) adjusts its weighting kernels based on only local information in order to minimize the danger of negative interference of incremental learning, (4) has a computational complexity that is linear in the number of inputs, and (5) can deal with a large number of-possibly redundant-inputs, as shown in various empirical evaluations with up to 90 dimensional data sets. For a probabilistic interpretation, predictive variance and confidence intervals are derived. To our knowledge, LWPR is the first truly incremental spatially localized learning method that can successfully and efficiently operate in very high-dimensional spaces.

Hydrological Responses of Chaobai River Basin under 1.5° and 2.0° Global Warming Using Multi-GCMs and Multi-RCPs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Y.; Ma, J.

2017-12-01

The global warming of 1.5° and 2.0° proposed in Paris Agreement has became the iconic threshold of climate change impact research and discussion. In order to provide useful reference to the effective water resource management and planning for the capital city of China, this study aims to assessing the potential impact of 1.5° and 2.0° global warming on river discharge in Chaobai River Basin(CRB) which is main water supply source of Beijing. A semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT was driven by climate projections from five General Circulation Models(GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) to simulate the future discharge in CRB under 1.5° and 2.0° global warming respectively. On this basis, climate change impact on annual and monthly discharge, seasonal discharge distribution, extreme monthly discharge in CRB were assessed and the uncertainty associated with GCMs and RCPs were analyzed quantitatively. The results indicate that the average annual discharge will increase slightly and more concentrate in midsummer and early autumn under 1.5° global warming. When the global average temperature rise 2°, the annual discharge in CRB show an evident positive tendency with the magnitude increasing by approximate 30% and the extreme monthly runoff will significantly increase. However, the proportion of discharge in summer which is the peak water usage period will decline. It is obvious that the increment of 0.5° will lead to more flood events and bring great challenge to water resource management. There is a certain uncertainty in the projection of temperature, precipitation and discharge, by contrast, uncertainty of discharge projection is far greater than that of other two meteorological elements. Compared with RCPs, GCMs are proved to be the main factor which are responsible for the impact uncertainty in CRB under two global warming horizons. The uncertainty will be larger as the warming magnitude increase. In a word, the additional 0.5 will be crucial to flood control and water security, therefore, it is better to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Interannual Variations in Arctic Winter Temperature: The Role of Global Scale Teleconnections

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

also advect warm air northward and eastward between Iceland and Scandinavia . Figure 7 shows the LTM patterns of global Z200 and shows the normal...with an extension of this warm anomaly into the subpolar regions of the North Atlantic (i.e., Baffin Bay- Scandinavia ). Weak positive anomalies in...positive anomalies over northern Siberia and Scandinavia . We speculate that these areas of positive and negative anomalies in Z850, and implied WAA, may

Variability and trends in dry day frequency and dry event length in the southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, Gregory J.; Legates, David R.; Lins, Harry F.

2010-01-01

Daily precipitation from 22 National Weather Service first-order weather stations in the southwestern United States for water years 1951 through 2006 are used to examine variability and trends in the frequency of dry days and dry event length. Dry events with minimum thresholds of 10 and 20 consecutive days of precipitation with less than 2.54 mm are analyzed. For water years and cool seasons (October through March), most sites indicate negative trends in dry event length (i.e., dry event durations are becoming shorter). For the warm season (April through September), most sites also indicate negative trends; however, more sites indicate positive trends in dry event length for the warm season than for water years or cool seasons. The larger number of sites indicating positive trends in dry event length during the warm season is due to a series of dry warm seasons near the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. Overall, a large portion of the variability in dry event length is attributable to variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, especially for water years and cool seasons. Our results are consistent with analyses of trends in discharge for sites in the southwestern United States, an increased frequency in El Niño events, and positive trends in precipitation in the southwestern United States.

Climate warming increases biodiversity of small rodents by favoring rare or less abundant species in a grassland ecosystem.

PubMed

Jiang, Guangshun; Liu, Jun; Xu, Lei; Yu, Guirui; He, Honglin; Zhang, Zhibin

2013-06-01

Our Earth is facing the challenge of accelerating climate change, which imposes a great threat to biodiversity. Many published studies suggest that climate warming may cause a dramatic decline in biodiversity, especially in colder and drier regions. In this study, we investigated the effects of temperature, precipitation and a normalized difference vegetation index on biodiversity indices of rodent communities in the current or previous year for both detrended and nondetrended data in semi-arid grassland of Inner Mongolia during 1982-2006. Our results demonstrate that temperature showed predominantly positive effects on the biodiversity of small rodents; precipitation showed both positive and negative effects; a normalized difference vegetation index showed positive effects; and cross-correlation function values between rodent abundance and temperature were negatively correlated with rodent abundance. Our results suggest that recent climate warming increased the biodiversity of small rodents by providing more benefits to population growth of rare or less abundant species than that of more abundant species in Inner Mongolia grassland, which does not support the popular view that global warming would decrease biodiversity in colder and drier regions. We hypothesized that higher temperatures might benefit rare or less abundant species (with smaller populations and more folivorous diets) by reducing the probability of local extinction and/or by increasing herbaceous food resources. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

The Role of Emotion in Global Warming Policy Support and Opposition

PubMed Central

Smith, Nicholas; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2014-01-01

Prior research has found that affect and affective imagery strongly influence public support for global warming. This article extends this literature by exploring the separate influence of discrete emotions. Utilizing a nationally representative survey in the United States, this study found that discrete emotions were stronger predictors of global warming policy support than cultural worldviews, negative affect, image associations, or sociodemographic variables. In particular, worry, interest, and hope were strongly associated with increased policy support. The results contribute to experiential theories of risk information processing and suggest that discrete emotions play a significant role in public support for climate change policy. Implications for climate change communication are also discussed. PMID:24219420

The role of emotion in global warming policy support and opposition.

PubMed

Smith, Nicholas; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2014-05-01

Prior research has found that affect and affective imagery strongly influence public support for global warming. This article extends this literature by exploring the separate influence of discrete emotions. Utilizing a nationally representative survey in the United States, this study found that discrete emotions were stronger predictors of global warming policy support than cultural worldviews, negative affect, image associations, or sociodemographic variables. In particular, worry, interest, and hope were strongly associated with increased policy support. The results contribute to experiential theories of risk information processing and suggest that discrete emotions play a significant role in public support for climate change policy. Implications for climate change communication are also discussed. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Palecki, M.A.; Betancourt, J.L.

2004-01-01

More than half (52%) of the spatial and temporal variance in multidecadal drought frequency over the conterminous United States is attributable to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An additional 22% of the variance in drought frequency is related to a complex spatial pattern of positive and negative trends in drought occurrence possibly related to increasing Northern Hemisphere temperatures or some other unidirectional climate trend. Recent droughts with broad impacts over the conterminous U.S. (1996, 1999-2002) were associated with North Atlantic warming (positive AMO) and north-eastern and tropical Pacific cooling (negative PDO). Much of the long-term predictability of drought frequency may reside in the multidecadal behavior of the North Atlantic Ocean. Should the current positive AMO (warm North Atlantic) conditions persist into the upcoming decade, we suggest two possible drought scenarios that resemble the continental-scale patterns of the 1930s (positive PDO) and 1950s (negative PDO) drought.

Comparative evaluation of H&H and WFNS grading scales with modified H&H (sans systemic disease): A study on 1000 patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage.

PubMed

Aggarwal, Ashish; Dhandapani, Sivashanmugam; Praneeth, Kokkula; Sodhi, Harsimrat Bir Singh; Pal, Sudhir Singh; Gaudihalli, Sachin; Khandelwal, N; Mukherjee, Kanchan K; Tewari, M K; Gupta, Sunil Kumar; Mathuriya, S N

2018-01-01

The comparative studies on grading in subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) had several limitations such as the unclear grading of Glasgow Coma Scale 15 with neurological deficits in World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS), and the inclusion of systemic disease in Hunt and Hess (H&H) scales. Their differential incremental impacts and optimum cut-off values for unfavourable outcome are unsettled. This is a prospective comparison of prognostic impacts of grading schemes to address these issues. SAH patients were assessed using WFNS, H&H (including systemic disease), modified H&H (sans systemic disease) and followed up with Glasgow Outcome Score (GOS) at 3 months. Their performance characteristics were analysed as incremental ordinal variables and different grading scale dichotomies using rank-order correlation, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, Youden's J and multivariate analyses. A total of 1016 patients were studied. As univariate incremental variable, H&H sans systemic disease had the best negative rank-order correlation coefficient (-0.453) with respect to lower GOS (p < 0.001). As univariate dichotomized category, WFNS grades 3-5 had the best performance index of 0.39 to suggest unfavourable GOS with a specificity of 89% and sensitivity of 51%. In multivariate incremental analysis, H&H sans systemic disease had the greatest adjusted incremental impact of 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54-0.91) against a lower GOS as compared to 0.6 (95% CI 0.45-0.74) and 0.55 (95% CI 0.42-0.68) for H&H and WFNS grades, respectively. In multivariate categorical analysis, H&H grades 4-5 sans systemic disease had the greatest impact on unfavourable GOS with an adjusted odds ratio of 6.06 (95% CI 3.94-9.32). To conclude, H&H grading sans systemic disease had the greatest impact on unfavourable GOS. Though systemic disease is an important prognostic factor, it should be considered distinctly from grading. Appropriate cut-off values suggesting unfavourable outcome for H&H and WFNS were 4-5 and 3-5, respectively, indicating the importance of neurological deficits in addition to level of consciousness.

Cloud-radiation interactions - Effects of cirrus optical thickness feedbacks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Somerville, Richard C. J.; Iacobellis, Sam

1987-01-01

The paper is concerned with a cloud-radiation feedback mechanism which may be an important component of the climate changes expected from increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace greenhouse gases. A major result of the study is that cirrus cloud optical thickness feedbacks may indeed tend to increase the surface warming due to trace gas increases. However, the positive feedback from cirrus appears to be generally weaker than the negative effects due to lower clouds. The results just confirm those of earlier research indicating that the net effect of cloud optical thickness feedbacks may be a negative feedback which may substantially (by a factor of about 2) reduce the surface warming due to the doubling of CO2, even in the presence of cirrus clouds.

Investigate the plant biomass response to climate warming in permafrost ecosystem using matrix-based data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, X.; Du, Z.; Schuur, E.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Permafrost is one of the most vulnerable regions on the earth with over 40% world soil C represented in this region. Future climate warming potentially has a great impact on this region. On one hand, rising temperature accelerates permafrost soil thaw and release more C from land. On the other hand, warming may also increase the plant growing season length and therefore negatively feedback to climate change by increasing annual land C uptake. However, whether permafrost vegetation biomass change in response to warming can sequester more C has not been well understood. Manipulated air warming experiments reported that air warming has very limited impacts on grass land productivity and biomass growth in permafrost region [Mauritz et al., 2017]. It is hard to reveal the mechanisms behind the limited air warming response directly from experiment data. We employ a vegetation C cycle matrix model based on Community land model 4.5 (CLM4.5) and data assimilation technique to investigate how much do phenology and physiology processes contribute to the response respectively. Our results indicate phenology contributes the most in response to warming. The shift of vegetation parameter distributions after 2012 indicate vegetation acclimation may explain the modest response in plant biomass to air warming. The results suggest future model development need to take vegetation acclimation more seriously. The novel matrix-based model allows data assimilation to be conducted more efficiently. It provides more functional understanding of the models as well as the mechanism behind experiment data.

An increase in aerosol burden due to the land-sea warming contrast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, T.; Allen, R.; Randles, C. A.

2017-12-01

Climate models simulate an increase in most aerosol species in response to warming, particularly over the tropics and Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. This increase in aerosol burden is related to a decrease in wet removal, primarily due to reduced large-scale precipitation. Here, we show that the increase in aerosol burden, and the decrease in large-scale precipitation, is related to a robust climate change phenomenon—the land/sea warming contrast. Idealized simulations with two state of the art climate models, the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (NCAR CAM5) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model 3 (GFDL AM3), show that muting the land-sea warming contrast negates the increase in aerosol burden under warming. This is related to smaller decreases in near-surface relative humidity over land, and in turn, smaller decreases in large-scale precipitation over land—especially in the NH midlatitudes. Furthermore, additional idealized simulations with an enhanced land/sea warming contrast lead to the opposite result—larger decreases in relative humidity over land, larger decreases in large-scale precipitation, and larger increases in aerosol burden. Our results, which relate the increase in aerosol burden to the robust climate projection of enhanced land warming, adds confidence that a warmer world will be associated with a larger aerosol burden.

Small pelagics in a changing ocean: biological responses of sardine early stages to warming

PubMed Central

Faleiro, Filipa; Pimentel, Marta; Pegado, Maria Rita; Bispo, Regina; Lopes, Ana Rita; Diniz, Mário S.; Rosa, Rui

2016-01-01

Small pelagic fishes are known to respond rapidly to changes in ocean climate. In this study, we evaluate the effects of future environmental warming (+2°C) during the early ontogeny of the European sardine, Sardina pilchardus. Warming reduced the survival of 30-day-old larvae by half. Length at hatching increased with temperature as expected, but no significant effect was observed on the length and growth at 30 days post-hatching. Warming did not significantly affect the thermal tolerance of sardine larvae, even though the mean lethal temperature increased by 1°C. In the warm conditions, sardine larvae showed signs of thermal stress, indicated by a pronounced increase in larval metabolism (Q10 = 7.9) and a 45% increase in the heat shock response. Lipid peroxidation was not significantly affected by the higher temperature, even though the mean value doubled. Warming did not affect the time larvae spent swimming, but decreased by 36% the frequency of prey attacks. Given the key role of these small pelagics in the trophic dynamics off the Western Iberian upwelling ecosystem, the negative effects of warming on the early stages may have important implications for fish recruitment and ecosystem structure. PMID:27293764

The relationship between renal warm ischemia time and glomerular loss. An experimental study in a pig model.

PubMed

Damasceno-Ferreira, José Aurelino; Bechara, Gustavo Ruschi; Costa, Waldemar Silva; Pereira-Sampaio, Marco Aurélio; Sampaio, Francisco José Barcellos; Souza, Diogo Benchimol De

2017-05-01

To investigate the glomerular number after different warm ischemia times. Thirty two pigs were assigned into four groups. Three groups (G10, G20, and G30) were treated with 10, 20, and 30 minutes of left renal warm ischemia. The sham group underwent the same surgery without renal ischemia. The animals were euthanized after 3 weeks, and the kidneys were collected. Right kidneys were used as controls. The kidney weight, volume, cortical-medullar ratio, glomerular volumetric density, volume-weighted mean glomerular volume, and the total number of glomeruli per kidney were obtained. Serum creatinine levels were assessed pre and postoperatively. Serum creatinine levels did not differ among the groups. All parameters were similar for the sham, G10, and G20 groups upon comparison of the right and left organs. The G30 group pigs' left kidneys had lower weight, volume, and cortical-medullar ratio and 24.6% less glomeruli compared to the right kidney. A negative correlation was found between warm ischemia time and glomerular number. About one quarter of glomeruli was lost after 30 minutes of renal warm ischemia. No glomeruli loss was detected before 20 minutes of warm ischemia. However, progressive glomerular loss was associated with increasing warm ischemia time.

A possible cause of the AO polarity reversal from winter to summer in 2010 and its relation to hemispheric extreme summer weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otomi, Y.; Tachibana, Y.; Nakamura, T.

2012-12-01

In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia, Europe and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO). In contrast, in winter 2009/2010, the continent suffered from anomalously cold weather associated with a record-breaking negative AO. The winter-to-summer of the AO index during 2009/2010 evolved as follows: a strongly negative wintertime AO index continued until May, after which it abruptly changed, becoming strongly positive in July and continuing so until the beginning of August. The abrupt change of the AO index from strongly negative to strongly positive in 2010 thus corresponded to the change from the abnormally cold winter of 2009/2010 to the abnormally hot summer of 2010, which shows that the AO index is a good indicator of abnormal weather on a planetary-scale, and that extra-seasonal prediction of the AO is a key to long-term forecasting. In this study, we therefore aimed to examine the cause of the 2010 change in the AO index from strongly negative to strongly positive. We suggest that an oceanic memory of the strongly negative wintertime AO may have influenced the strongly positive summertime AO. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern which is warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes. The strongly negative wintertime AO would cause the warm SST anomaly in this region. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. In May and June, the heat flux anomaly changed from downward to upward in the tropics, and in July and August, the center of the upward anomaly moved westward. The area of the upward heat flux anomaly coincided with the area of the warm SST anomaly from May to August. The numerical model experiment showed that the tripolar SST pattern resulted in an anomalous height and wind pattern that caused a blocking high over Europe. The observed wave activity flux also seems to emanate from Europe. This midlatitude atmospheric response implies that strengthening of the positive geopotential anomalies over Europe was associated with the Atlantic tripolar SST anomaly. The positive geopotential anomaly in the area of the polar jet stream caused eastward propagation of Rossby waves, and the exceeding amplification of Rossby waves might have led to the formation of blocking anticyclones. As a consequence of these interactions, the positive AO pressure pattern can continue for a long time. Thus, a possible cause of the AO polarity reversal might be the "memory" of the negative winter AO in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting an interseasonal linkage of the AO in which the oceanic memory of a wintertime negative AO induces a positive AO in the following summer. Understanding of this interseasonal linkage may aid in the long-term prediction of such abnormal summer events. If this reversal pattern recurs, it might be possible to predict the summertime AO from the wintertime AO. Main parts of this study were published in Climatic Dynamics by Otomi et al, (2012).

Designing a new cropping system for high productivity and sustainable water usage under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Qingfeng; Wang, Hongfei; Yan, Peng; Pan, Junxiao; Lu, Dianjun; Cui, Zhenling; Zhang, Fusuo; Chen, Xinping

2017-02-01

The food supply is being increasingly challenged by climate change and water scarcity. However, incremental changes in traditional cropping systems have achieved only limited success in meeting these multiple challenges. In this study, we applied a systematic approach, using model simulation and data from two groups of field studies conducted in the North China Plain, to develop a new cropping system that improves yield and uses water in a sustainable manner. Due to significant warming, we identified a double-maize (M-M; Zea mays L.) cropping system that replaced the traditional winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) -summer maize system. The M-M system improved yield by 14-31% compared with the conventionally managed wheat-maize system, and achieved similar yield compared with the incrementally adapted wheat-maize system with the optimized cultivars, planting dates, planting density and water management. More importantly, water usage was lower in the M-M system than in the wheat-maize system, and the rate of water usage was sustainable (net groundwater usage was ≤150 mm yr-1). Our study indicated that systematic assessment of adaptation and cropping system scale have great potential to address the multiple food supply challenges under changing climatic conditions.

Experimental evidence of warming-induced flowering in the Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica.

PubMed

Ruiz, J M; Marín-Guirao, L; García-Muñoz, R; Ramos-Segura, A; Bernardeau-Esteller, J; Pérez, M; Sanmartí, N; Ontoria, Y; Romero, J; Arthur, R; Alcoverro, T; Procaccini, G

2017-10-25

Sexual reproduction in predominantly clonal marine plants increases recombination favoring adaptation and enhancing species resilience to environmental change. Recent studies of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica suggest that flowering intensity and frequency are correlated with warming events associated with global climate change, but these studies have been observational without direct experimental support. We used controlled experiments to test if warming can effectively trigger flowering in P. oceanica. A six-week heat wave was simulated under laboratory mesocosm conditions. Heating negatively impacted leaf growth rates, but by the end of the experiment most of the heated plants flowered, while controls plants did not. Heated and control plants were not genetically distinct and flowering intensity was significantly correlated with allelic richness and heterozygosity. This is an unprecedented finding, showing that the response of seagrasses to warming will be more plastic, more complex and potentially more resilient than previously imagined. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predator contributions to belowground responses to warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maran, A. M.; Pelini, S. L.

Identifying the factors that control soil CO 2 emissions will improve our ability to predict the magnitude of climate change–soil ecosystem feedbacks. Despite the integral role of invertebrates in belowground systems, they are excluded from climate change models. Soil invertebrates have consumptive and nonconsumptive effects on microbes, whose respiration accounts for nearly half of soil CO 2 emissions. By altering the behavior and abundance of invertebrates that interact with microbes, invertebrate predators may have indirect effects on soil respiration. We examined the effects of a generalist arthropod predator on belowground respiration under different warming scenarios. Based on research suggesting invertebratesmore » may mediate soil CO 2 emission responses to warming, we predicted that predator presence would result in increased emissions by negatively affecting these invertebrates. We altered the presence of wolf spiders ( Pardosa spp.) in mesocosms containing a forest floor community. To simulate warming, we placed mesocosms of each treatment in ten open-top warming chambers ranging from 1.5° to 5.5°C above ambient at Harvard Forest, Massachusetts, USA. As expected, CO 2 emissions increased under warming and we found an interactive effect of predator presence and warming, although the effect was not consistent through time. The interaction between predator presence and warming was the inverse of our predictions: Mesocosms with predators had lower respiration at higher levels of warming than those without predators. Carbon dioxide emissions were not significantly associated with microbial biomass. Here, we did not find evidence of consumptive effects of predators on the invertebrate community, suggesting that predator presence mediates response of microbial respiration to warming through nonconsumptive means. In our system, we found a significant interaction between warming and predator presence that warrants further research into mechanism and generality of this pattern to other systems.« less

Predator contributions to belowground responses to warming

DOE PAGES

Maran, A. M.; Pelini, S. L.

2016-09-26

Identifying the factors that control soil CO 2 emissions will improve our ability to predict the magnitude of climate change–soil ecosystem feedbacks. Despite the integral role of invertebrates in belowground systems, they are excluded from climate change models. Soil invertebrates have consumptive and nonconsumptive effects on microbes, whose respiration accounts for nearly half of soil CO 2 emissions. By altering the behavior and abundance of invertebrates that interact with microbes, invertebrate predators may have indirect effects on soil respiration. We examined the effects of a generalist arthropod predator on belowground respiration under different warming scenarios. Based on research suggesting invertebratesmore » may mediate soil CO 2 emission responses to warming, we predicted that predator presence would result in increased emissions by negatively affecting these invertebrates. We altered the presence of wolf spiders ( Pardosa spp.) in mesocosms containing a forest floor community. To simulate warming, we placed mesocosms of each treatment in ten open-top warming chambers ranging from 1.5° to 5.5°C above ambient at Harvard Forest, Massachusetts, USA. As expected, CO 2 emissions increased under warming and we found an interactive effect of predator presence and warming, although the effect was not consistent through time. The interaction between predator presence and warming was the inverse of our predictions: Mesocosms with predators had lower respiration at higher levels of warming than those without predators. Carbon dioxide emissions were not significantly associated with microbial biomass. Here, we did not find evidence of consumptive effects of predators on the invertebrate community, suggesting that predator presence mediates response of microbial respiration to warming through nonconsumptive means. In our system, we found a significant interaction between warming and predator presence that warrants further research into mechanism and generality of this pattern to other systems.« less

Multidecadal-scale adjustment of the ocean mixed layer heat budget in the tropics: examining ocean reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward K.; Sun, Xiaoming

2018-03-01

Distributions of ocean mixed layer temperature trends and trends in the net heat flux from the atmosphere differ, indicating the important role of the transport of heat within the ocean for determining temperature trends. Annual-mean, linear trends in the components of the tropical ocean mixed layer heat budget for 1980-2015 are diagnosed in 4 ocean reanalyses to improve our physical understanding of multidecadal-scale SST trends. The well-known temperature trend in the tropical Pacific, with cooling in the east and warming in the west, is reproduced in each reanalysis with high statistical significance. Cooling in the east is associated with negative trends in the net heat flux from the atmosphere and enhanced equatorial upwelling related to a strengthening of the subtropical cells. Negative trends in the net heat flux also occur in the western tropical Pacific, but advective warming associated with a strengthening and shoaling of the equatorial undercurrent overwhelms these negative trends. The strengthening of the equatorial undercurrent is consistent with enhanced easterly wind stress, which is applied to the ocean reanalyses, and differential sea level trends that enhance the negative zonal height gradient across the Pacific. The Pacific North Equatorial countercurrent is also strengthening in all 4 reanalyses in association with a strengthening of the sea level trough at 10°N in the central and eastern Pacific. All 4 ocean reanalyses produce warming of 0.1-0.3 K/decade in the North Atlantic with statistical significance levels ranging from below 90-99%. The Atlantic is similar to the Pacific in having the equatorial undercurrent strengthening, but indications of shoaling are less consistent in the reanalyses and the North Equatorial Countercurrent in the Atlantic is not strengthening. Large-scale ocean mixed layer warming trends in the Indian Ocean in the reanalyses are interrupted by some regional cooling close to the equator. Net surface heat flux trends are mostly negative, indicating increasing heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere. Wind stress trends applied to the ocean reanalyses are weak, but trends in the Indian Ocean equatorial undercurrent are strong. Since the Indian monsoon climate introduces strong seasonality, the annual analysis may not be adequate for studying physical processes in this ocean basin.

Climate Effect of Greenhouse Gas: Warming or Cooling is Determined by Temperature Gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shia, R.

2011-12-01

The instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) at the top of the atmosphere (ToA) is the initial change of the total energy in the climate system when the concentration of greenhouse gas (GHG) increases. In my previous presentation at the 2010 Fall AGU meeting (A11J-02, "Mechanism of Radiative Forcing of Greenhouse Gas its Implication to the Global Warming"), it was demonstrated that IRF at TOA is generated by moving up of the emission weighting function. Thus, the temperature gradient plays a critical role in determining the climate effect of GHG. In this presentation the change of the outgoing infrared radiation flux at ToA is studied from a perturbation point of view. After the cancellation between the changes in the outgoing radiation flux from the surface emission and from the reemission of the atmosphere, the derivative of the outgoing flux to the concentration of GHG is found to be proportional to the temperature gradients below the level where the concentration of GHG changes. Therefore, the greenhouse gas contribute only to the magnitude of the radiative forcing, the temperature gradients decide the direction of the radiative forcing, i.e. warming or cooling, in addition to contributing to its magnitude. In response to the question "Does the negative IRF at ToA lead to the surface cooling or it only cools the upper part of the atmosphere?" the Eddington grey radiative equilibrium model is modified to simulate different scenarios. The original model has been used to illustrate the warming effect of GHG in textbooks of the atmospheric physics. It is modified by adding source terms from the absorption of the solar flux and the internal energy exchange in the atmosphere. In two cases the modified model generates atmospheres with a large and warm stratosphere and negative IRF at ToA when GHG increases by 25%. This negative radiative forcing can lead to the cooling of the atmosphere all the way down to the surface. The implications of the cooling effect of GHG to the climate change, including paleoclimatology and the prerequests for climate models to include cooling effect of GHG properly are discussed.

Potential impacts of global warming on water resources in southern California.

PubMed

Beuhler, M

2003-01-01

Global warming will have a significant impact on water resources within the 20 to 90-year planning period of many water projects. Arid and semi-arid regions such as Southern California are especially vulnerable to anticipated negative impacts of global warming on water resources. Long-range water facility planning must consider global climate change in the recommended mix of new facilities needed to meet future water requirements. The generally accepted impacts of global warming include temperature, rising sea levels, more frequent and severe floods and droughts, and a shift from snowfall to rain. Precipitation changes are more difficult to predict. For Southern California, these impacts will be especially severe on surface water supplies. Additionally, rising sea levels will exacerbate salt-water intrusion into freshwater and impact the quality of surface water supplies. Integrated water resources planning is emerging as a tool to develop water supplies and demand management strategies that are less vulnerable to the impacts of global warming. These tools include water conservation, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and desalination of brackish water and possibly seawater. Additionally, planning for future water needs should include explicit consideration of the potential range of global warming impacts through techniques such as scenario planning.

Reduced North American terrestrial primary productivity linked to anomalous Arctic warming

DOE PAGES

Kim, Jin-Soo; Kug, Jong-Seong; Jeong, Su-Jong; ...

2017-07-10

Warming temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere have enhanced terrestrial productivity. Despite the warming trend, North America has experienced more frequent and more intense cold weather events during winters and springs. These events have been linked to anomalous Arctic warming since 1990, and may affect terrestrial processes. Here we analyse many observation data sets and numerical model simulations to evaluate links between Arctic temperatures and primary productivity in North America. We find that positive springtime temperature anomalies in the Arctic have led to negative anomalies in gross primary productivity over most of North America during the last three decades, which amountmore » to a net productivity decline of 0.31 PgC yr -1 across the continent. This decline is mainly explained by two factors: severe cold conditions in northern North America and lower precipitation in the South Central United States. In addition, United States crop-yield data reveal that during years experiencing anomalous warming in the Arctic, yields declined by approximately 1 to 4% on average, with individual states experiencing declines of up to 20%. We conclude that the strengthening of Arctic warming anomalies in the past decades has remotely reduced productivity over North America.« less

Reduced North American terrestrial primary productivity linked to anomalous Arctic warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Jin-Soo; Kug, Jong-Seong; Jeong, Su-Jong

Warming temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere have enhanced terrestrial productivity. Despite the warming trend, North America has experienced more frequent and more intense cold weather events during winters and springs. These events have been linked to anomalous Arctic warming since 1990, and may affect terrestrial processes. Here we analyse many observation data sets and numerical model simulations to evaluate links between Arctic temperatures and primary productivity in North America. We find that positive springtime temperature anomalies in the Arctic have led to negative anomalies in gross primary productivity over most of North America during the last three decades, which amountmore » to a net productivity decline of 0.31 PgC yr -1 across the continent. This decline is mainly explained by two factors: severe cold conditions in northern North America and lower precipitation in the South Central United States. In addition, United States crop-yield data reveal that during years experiencing anomalous warming in the Arctic, yields declined by approximately 1 to 4% on average, with individual states experiencing declines of up to 20%. We conclude that the strengthening of Arctic warming anomalies in the past decades has remotely reduced productivity over North America.« less

Clinical and personality traits in emotional disorders: Evidence of a common framework.

PubMed

Mahaffey, Brittain L; Watson, David; Clark, Lee Anna; Kotov, Roman

2016-08-01

Certain clinical traits (e.g., ruminative response style, self-criticism, perfectionism, anxiety sensitivity, fear of negative evaluation, and thought suppression) increase the risk for and chronicity of emotional disorders. Similar to traditional personality traits, they are considered dispositional and typically show high temporal stability. Because the personality and clinical-traits literatures evolved largely independently, connections between them are not fully understood. We sought to map the interface between a widely studied set of clinical and personality traits. Two samples (N = 385 undergraduates; N = 188 psychiatric outpatients) completed measures of personality traits, clinical traits, and an interview-based assessment of emotional-disorder symptoms. First, the joint factor structure of these traits was examined in each sample. Second, structural equation modeling was used to clarify the effects of clinical traits in the prediction of clinical symptoms beyond negative temperament. Third, the incremental validity of clinical traits beyond a more comprehensive set of higher-order and lower-order personality traits was examined using hierarchical regression. Clinical and personality traits were highly correlated and jointly defined a 3-factor structure-Negative Temperament, Positive Temperament, and Disinhibition-in both samples, with all clinical traits loading on the Negative Temperament factor. Clinical traits showed modest but significant incremental validity in explaining symptoms after accounting for personality traits. These data indicate that clinical traits relevant to emotional disorders fit well within the traditional personality framework and offer some unique contributions to the prediction of psychopathology, but it is important to distinguish their effects from negative temperament/neuroticism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Unchanged carbon balance driven by equivalent responses of production and respiration to climate change in a mixed-grass prairie.

PubMed

Xu, Xia; Shi, Zheng; Chen, Xuecheng; Lin, Yang; Niu, Shuli; Jiang, Lifen; Luo, Ruiseng; Luo, Yiqi

2016-05-01

Responses of grassland carbon (C) cycling to climate change and land use remain a major uncertainty in model prediction of future climate. To explore the impacts of global change on ecosystem C fluxes and the consequent changes in C storage, we have conducted a field experiment with warming (+3 °C), altered precipitation (doubled and halved), and annual clipping at the end of growing seasons in a mixed-grass prairie in Oklahoma, USA, from 2009 to 2013. Results showed that although ecosystem respiration (ER) and gross primary production (GPP) negatively responded to warming, net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) did not significantly change under warming. Doubled precipitation stimulated and halved precipitation suppressed ER and GPP equivalently, with the net outcome being unchanged in NEE. These results indicate that warming and altered precipitation do not necessarily have profound impacts on ecosystem C storage. In addition, we found that clipping enhanced NEE due to a stronger positive response of GPP compared to ER, indicating that clipping could potentially be an effective land practice that could increase C storage. No significant interactions between warming, altered precipitation, and clipping were observed. Meanwhile, we found that belowground net primary production (BNPP) in general was sensitive to climate change and land use though no significant changes were found in NPP across treatments. Moreover, negative correlations of the ER/GPP ratio with soil temperature and moisture did not differ across treatments, highlighting the roles of abiotic factors in mediating ecosystem C fluxes in this grassland. Importantly, our results suggest that belowground C cycling (e.g., BNPP) could respond to climate change with no alterations in ecosystem C storage in the same period. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Change in abundance of pacific brant wintering in alaska: evidence of a climate warming effect?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, David H.; Dau, Christian P.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Sedinger, James S.; Anderson, Betty A.; Hines, James E.

2009-01-01

Winter distribution of Pacific Flyway brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) has shifted northward from lowtemperate areas to sub-Arctic areas over the last 42 years. We assessed the winter abundance and distribution of brant in Alaska to evaluate whether climate warming may be contributing to positive trends in the most northern of the wintering populations. Mean surface air temperatures during winter at the end of the Alaska Peninsula increased about 1??C between 1963 and 2004, resulting in a 23% reduction in freezing degree days and a 34% decline in the number of days when ice cover prevents birds from accessing food resources. Trends in the wintering population fluctuated with states of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, increasing during positive (warm) phases and decreasing during negative (cold) phases, and this correlation provides support for the hypothesis that growth in the wintering population of brant in Alaska is linked to climate warming. The size of the wintering population was negatively correlated with the number of days of strong northwesterly winds in November, which suggests that the occurrence of tailwinds favorable for migration before the onset of winter was a key factor in whether brant migrated from Alaska or remained there during winter. Winter distribution of brant on the Alaska Peninsula was highly variable and influenced by ice cover, particularly at the heavily used Izembek Lagoon. Observations of previously marked brant indicated that the Alaska wintering population was composed primarily of birds originating from Arctic breeding colonies that appear to be growing. Numbers of brant in Alaska during winter will likely increase as temperatures rise and ice cover decreases at high latitudes in response to climate warming. ?? The Arctic Institute of North America.

[Role of the implicit theories of intelligence in learning situations].

PubMed

Da Fonseca, D; Cury, F; Bailly, D; Rufo, M

2004-01-01

Most studies have tried to explain the school difficulties by analysing the intellectual factors that lead to school failure. However in addition to the instrumental capacities, authors also recognize the role played by other factors such as motivation. More specifically, the theory of achievement motivation aims to determine motivational factors involved in achievement situations when the students have to demonstrate their competencies. This paradigm attributes a central place to beliefs in order to explain children's behavior in academic situations. According to Dweck, it seems that beliefs about the nature of intelligence have a very powerful impact on behavior. These implicit theories of intelligence create a meaning system or conceptual framework that influences the individual interpretation of school situations. Thus, an entity theory of intelligence is the belief that intelligence is a fixed trait, a personal quality that cannot be changed. Students who subscribe to this theory believe that although people can learn new things, their underlying intelligence remains the same. In contrast, an incremental theory of intelligence is the belief that intelligence is a malleable quality that can increase through efforts. The identification of these two theories allows us to understand the cognition and behavior of individuals in achievement situations. Many studies carried out in the academic area show that students who hold an entity theory of intelligence (ie they consider intelligence like a stable quality) have a strong tendency to attribute their failures to a fixed trait. They are more likely to blame their intelligence for ne-gative outcomes and to attribute failures to their bad intellectual ability. In contrast, students who hold an incremental theory of intelligence (ie they consider intelligence as a malleable quality) are more likely to understand the same ne-gative outcomes in terms of specific factors: they attribute them to a lack of effort. This differential emphasis on traits versus specific mediators in turn fosters different reactions to negative events. Several studies have shown that entity theorists of intelligence are more likely than incremental theorists to react helplessly in the face of failure. They are not only more likely to make negative judgments about their intelligence from the failures, but also more likely to show negative affect and behaviors. This helpless response pattern is cha-racterized by a lack of persistence, and performance decrements. In contrast, incremental theorists, who focus more on behavioral factors (eg effort, problem-solving strategies) as causes of negative achievement outcomes, tend to act on these mediators. They try harder and develop better strategies and continue to work. Some authors have tendency to consider implicit theories of intelligence as a disposition or a stable dimension. But in the last few years, several studies showed that people's theories are not fixed traits; they are beliefs that may be influenced. These studies also suggested that students use the two types of beliefs and that the context determines the choice between the two types of theories. According to these authors, the psychological state of the student depends on dispositional factors but also on situational factors. Thus, several studies have tried to demonstrate that it is possible to modify experimentally implicit theories of intelligence and subsequent cognitions and behaviors by modifying situational factors. Several studies have demonstrated that it was possible to induce students to adopt one of the two theories of intelligence by presenting them a scientific article that compelling argued for either an entity or an incremental view of intelligence. The results showed that participants who had received the entity theory induction exhibited more evidence of a helpless reaction to failure. These studies show that some of the judgments and reactions associated with implicit theories can be experimentally induced by manipulating participant theories. However in the context of school difficulties, only few works have been conducted. We think that the model of the motivation of achievement would allow us to better understand maladjusted behaviors that engender failure and scholastic exclusion. In one study, reseachers have demonstrated that children with mental disorders are less likely than other children to hold an incremental theory of their intellectual abilities. Other studies have demonstrated that entity theorists interpret their bad results according to their global intelligence level by negatively judging their global abilities ("I think I am stupid"). It is interesting to note that these students make the same attributions as depressive students. These results reveal the need to determine systems of beliefs within populations with anxiety or depressive symptoms in order to characterise their motivational profiles. Indeed, we think that these symptoms contribute to modify implicit theories of intelligence and the nature of the subsequent scholastic achievement. Finally, we think that it is inte-resting to demonstrate the positive motivational effects of the experimental induction of the incremental theory. A series of studies showed that children's theories of intelligence expe-rimentally induced will influence their tendency to persevere in the face of failure. Like normally developing children, children with mental disorders were more likely to prefer challenging activities and report high levels of interest-enjoyment when the task was presented as one which is improvable. It suggests that although children with difficulties are pessimistic about improving their intellectual capacities, if a new task is introduced in a way that highlights the possibility of self-improvement (incremental theory), then they will pursue the challenge in an adaptive manner (strong perseverance, enjoy, and important interest). These results are very inte-resting. Indeed, highlighting an incremental theory had a po-sitive motivational effect on behavior in achievement situations. In addition, all these results also may open up several interesting perspectives for the treatment of learning disabi-lities. The results should lead to plan programmes of cognitive therapy in order to modify beliefs that underlie maladjusted achievement behaviors of children and adolescents in scholastic failure.

How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

PubMed

Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

2017-03-11

Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.

Incremental concept learning with few training examples and hierarchical classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouma, Henri; Eendebak, Pieter T.; Schutte, Klamer; Azzopardi, George; Burghouts, Gertjan J.

2015-10-01

Object recognition and localization are important to automatically interpret video and allow better querying on its content. We propose a method for object localization that learns incrementally and addresses four key aspects. Firstly, we show that for certain applications, recognition is feasible with only a few training samples. Secondly, we show that novel objects can be added incrementally without retraining existing objects, which is important for fast interaction. Thirdly, we show that an unbalanced number of positive training samples leads to biased classifier scores that can be corrected by modifying weights. Fourthly, we show that the detector performance can deteriorate due to hard-negative mining for similar or closely related classes (e.g., for Barbie and dress, because the doll is wearing a dress). This can be solved by our hierarchical classification. We introduce a new dataset, which we call TOSO, and use it to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for the localization and recognition of multiple objects in images.

Negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields: statistical evidence from France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gammans, Matthew; Mérel, Pierre; Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel

2017-05-01

In several world regions, climate change is predicted to negatively affect crop productivity. The recent statistical yield literature emphasizes the importance of flexibly accounting for the distribution of growing-season temperature to better represent the effects of warming on crop yields. We estimate a flexible statistical yield model using a long panel from France to investigate the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on wheat and barley yields. Winter varieties appear sensitive to extreme cold after planting. All yields respond negatively to an increase in spring-summer temperatures and are a decreasing function of precipitation about historical precipitation levels. Crop yields are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change under a wide range of climate models and emissions scenarios. Under warming scenario RCP8.5 and holding growing areas and technology constant, our model ensemble predicts a 21.0% decline in winter wheat yield, a 17.3% decline in winter barley yield, and a 33.6% decline in spring barley yield by the end of the century. Uncertainty from climate projections dominates uncertainty from the statistical model. Finally, our model predicts that continuing technology trends would counterbalance most of the effects of climate change.

The Global Warming Hiatus Tied to the North Atlantic Oscillation and Its Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Sun, C.

2015-12-01

The twentieth century Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature (NHT) is characterized by a multidecadal warming-cooling-warming pattern followed by a flat trend since about 2000 (recent warming hiatus). Here we demonstrate that the multidcadal variability in NHT including the recent warming hiatus is tied to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the NAO is implicated as a useful predictor of NHT multidecadal variability. Observational analysis shows that the NAO leads both the detrended NHT and oceanic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) by 15-20 years. Theoretical analysis illuminates that the NAO precedes NHT multidecadal variability through its delayed effect on the AMO due to the large thermal inertia associated with slow oceanic processes. The CCSM4 model is employed to investigate possible physical mechanisms. The positive NAO forces the strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and induces a basin-wide uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming that corresponds to the AMO. The SST field exhibits a delayed response to the preceding enhanced AMOC, and shows a pattern similar to the North Atlantic tripole (NAT), with SST warming in the northern North Atlantic and cooling in the southern part. This SST pattern (negative NAT phase) may lead to an atmospheric response that resembles the negative NAO phase, and subsequently the oscillation proceeds, but in the opposite sense. Based on these mechanisms, a simple delayed oscillator model is established to explain the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO. The magnitude of the NAO forcing of the AMOC/AMO and the time delay of the AMOC/AMO feedback are two key parameters of the delayed oscillator. For a given set of parameters, the quasi 60-year cycle of the NAO can be well predicted. This delayed oscillator model is useful for understanding of the oscillatory mechanism of the NAO, which has potential for decadal predictions as well as the interpretation of proxy data records. An NAO-based linear model is therefore established to predict the NHT, which gives an excellent hindcast for NHT in 1971-2011 with the recent flat trend well predicted. NHT in 2012-2027 is predicted to fall slightly over the next decades, due to the recent NAO decadal weakening that temporarily offsets the anthropogenically induced warming.

Increased temperatures negatively affect Juniperus communis seeds: evidence from transplant experiments along a latitudinal gradient.

PubMed

Gruwez, R; De Frenne, P; Vander Mijnsbrugge, K; Vangansbeke, P; Verheyen, K

2016-05-01

With a distribution range that covers most of the Northern hemisphere, common juniper (Juniperus communis) has one of the largest ranges of all vascular plant species. In several regions in Europe, however, populations are decreasing in size and number due to failing recruitment. One of the main causes for this failure is low seed viability. Observational evidence suggests that this is partly induced by climate warming, but our mechanistic understanding of this effect remains incomplete. Here, we experimentally assess the influence of temperature on two key developmental phases during sexual reproduction, i.e. gametogenesis and fertilisation (seed phase two, SP2) and embryo development (seed phase three, SP3). Along a latitudinal gradient from southern France to central Sweden, we installed a transplant experiment with shrubs originating from Belgium, a region with unusually low juniper seed viability. Seeds of both seed phases were sampled during three consecutive years, and seed viability assessed. Warming temperatures negatively affected the seed viability of both SP2 and SP3 seeds along the latitudinal gradient. Interestingly, the effect on embryo development (SP3) only occurred in the third year, i.e. when the gametogenesis and fertilisation also took place in warmer conditions. We found strong indications that this negative influence mostly acts via disrupting growth of the pollen tube, the development of the female gametophyte and fertilisation (SP2). This, in turn, can lead to failing embryo development, for example, due to nutritional problems. Our results confirm that climate warming can negatively affect seed viability of juniper. © 2015 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Dry seasons identified in oak tree-ring chronology in the Czech Lands over the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrovolny, Petr; Brazdil, Rudolf; Büntgen, Ulf; Rybnicek, Michal; Kolar, Tomas; Reznickova, Ladislava; Valasek, Hubert; Kotyza, Oldrich

2015-04-01

There is growing evidence on amplification of hydrological regimes as a consequence of rising temperatures, increase in evaporation and changes in circulation patterns. These processes may be responsible for higher probability of hydroclimatic extremes occurrence in regional scale. Extreme events such as floods or droughts are rare from their definition and for better understanding of possible changes in the frequency and intensity of their occurrence, long-term proxy archives may be analysed. Recently several tree ring width chronologies were compiled from hardwood species occurring in lowland positions and their analysis proved that they are moisture-sensitive and suitable for hydroclimate reconstructions. Here, we introduce a new oak (Quercus sp) ring width (RW) dataset for the Czech Republic and the last 1250 years. We explain the process of oak chronology standardization that was based on several only slightly different de-trending techniques and subsequent chronology development steps. We hypothesize that the most severe RW increment reductions (negative extremes) reflect extremely dry spring-summer conditions. Negative extremes were assigned for years in which transformed oak RWs were lower than the minus 1.5 standard deviation. To verify our hypothesis, we compare typical climatic conditions in negative extreme years with climatology of the reference period 1961-1990. Comparison was done for various instrumental measurements (1805-2012), existing proxy reconstructions (1500-1804) and also for documentary evidence from historical archives (before 1500). We found that years of negative extremes are characterized with distinctly above average spring (MAM) and summer (JJA) air temperatures and below average precipitation amounts. Typical sea level pressure spatial distribution in those years shows positive pressure anomaly over British Isles and Northern Sea, the pattern that synoptically corresponds to blocking anticyclone bringing to Central Europe warm air from SW and low precipitation totals with higher probability of drought occurrence. Our results provide consistent physical explanation of extremely dry seasons occurring in Central Europe. However, direct comparisons of individual RW extreme seasons with existing documentary evidence show the complexity the problem as some extremes identified in oak RW chronology were not confirmed in documentary archives and vice versa. We discuss possible causes of such differences related to the fact that various proxies may have problems to record real intensity or duration of extreme events e.g. due to non-linear response of proxy data to climate drivers or due to shift in seasonality.

Cocaine acute "binge" administration results in altered thalamocortical interactions in mice.

PubMed

Urbano, Francisco J; Bisagno, Verónica; Wikinski, Silvia I; Uchitel, Osvaldo D; Llinás, Rodolfo R

2009-10-15

Abnormalities in both thalamic and cortical areas have been reported in human cocaine addicts with noninvasive functional magnetic resonance imaging. Given the substantial involvement of the thalamocortical system in sensory processing and perception, we defined electrophysiology-based protocols to attempt a characterization of cocaine effects on thalamocortical circuits. Thalamocortical function was studied in vivo and in vitro in mice after cocaine "binge" administration. In vivo awake electroencephalography (EEG) was implemented in mice injected with saline, 1 hour or 24 hours after the last cocaine "binge" injection. In vitro current- and voltage-clamp whole-cell patch-clamp recordings were performed from slices including thalamic relay ventrobasal (VB) neurons. In vivo EEG recordings after cocaine "binge" administration showed a significant increment, compared with saline, in low frequencies while observing no changes in high-frequency gamma activity. In vitro patch recordings from VB neurons after cocaine "binge" administration showed low threshold spikes activation at more negative membrane potentials and increments in both I(h) and low voltage activated T-type calcium currents. Also, a 10-mV negative shift on threshold activation level of T-type current and a remarkable increment in both frequency and amplitudes of gamma-aminobutyric acid-A-mediated minis were observed. Our data indicate that thalamocortical dysfunctions observed in cocaine abusers might be due to two distinct but additive events: 1) increased low frequency oscillatory thalamocortical activity, and 2) overinhibition of VB neurons that can abnormally "lock" the whole thalamocortical system at low frequencies.

Herbivory and nutrient limitation protect warming tundra from lowland species' invasion and diversity loss.

PubMed

Eskelinen, Anu; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Olofsson, Johan

2017-01-01

Herbivory and nutrient limitation can increase the resistance of temperature-limited systems to invasions under climate warming. We imported seeds of lowland species to tundra under factorial treatments of warming, fertilization, herbivore exclusion and biomass removal. We show that warming alone had little impact on lowland species, while exclusion of native herbivores and relaxation of nutrient limitation greatly benefitted them. In contrast, warming alone benefitted resident tundra species and increased species richness; however, these were canceled by negative effects of herbivore exclusion and fertilization. Dominance of lowland species was associated with low cover of tundra species and resulted in decreased species richness. Our results highlight the critical role of biotic and abiotic filters unrelated to temperature in protecting tundra under warmer climate. While scarcity of soil nutrients and native herbivores act as important agents of resistance to invasions by lowland species, they concurrently promote overall species coexistence. However, when these biotic and abiotic resistances are relaxed, invasion of lowland species can lead to decreased abundance of resident tundra species and diminished diversity. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Historical trends and high-resolution future climate projections in northern Tuscany (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Oria, Marco; Ferraresi, Massimo; Tanda, Maria Giovanna

2017-12-01

This paper analyzes the historical precipitation and temperature trends and the future climate projections with reference to the northern part of Tuscany (Italy). The trends are identified and quantified at monthly and annual scale at gauging stations with data collected for long periods (60-90 years). An ensemble of 13 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), was then used to assess local scale future precipitation and temperature projections and to represent the uncertainty in the results. The historical data highlight a general decrease of the annual rainfall at a mean rate of 22 mm per decade but, in many cases, the tendencies are not statistically significant. Conversely, the annual mean temperature exhibits an upward trend, statistically significant in the majority of cases, with a warming rate of about 0.1 °C per decade. With reference to the model projections and the annual precipitation, the results are not concordant; the deviations between models in the same period are higher than the future changes at medium- (2031-2040) and long-term (2051-2060) and highlight that the model uncertainty and variability is high. According to the climate model projections, the warming of the study area is unequivocal; a mean positive increment of 0.8 °C at medium-term and 1.1 °C at long-term is expected with respect to the reference period (2003-2012) and the scenario RCP4.5; the increments grow to 0.9 °C and 1.9 °C for the RCP8.5. Finally, in order to check the observed climate change signals, the climate model projections were compared with the trends based on the historical data. A satisfactory agreement is obtained with reference to the precipitation; a systematic underestimation of the trend values with respect to the models, at medium- and long-term, is observed for the temperature data.

A maximal incremental effort alters tear osmolarity depending on the fitness level in military helicopter pilots.

PubMed

Vera, Jesús; Jiménez, Raimundo; Madinabeitia, Iker; Masiulis, Nerijus; Cárdenas, David

2017-10-01

Fitness level modulates the physiological responses to exercise for a variety of indices. While intense bouts of exercise have been demonstrated to increase tear osmolarity (Tosm), it is not known if fitness level can affect the Tosm response to acute exercise. This study aims to compare the effect of a maximal incremental test on Tosm between trained and untrained military helicopter pilots. Nineteen military helicopter pilots (ten trained and nine untrained) performed a maximal incremental test on a treadmill. A tear sample was collected before and after physical effort to determine the exercise-induced changes on Tosm. The Bayesian statistical analysis demonstrated that Tosm significantly increased from 303.72 ± 6.76 to 310.56 ± 8.80 mmol/L after performance of a maximal incremental test. However, while the untrained group showed an acute Tosm rise (12.33 mmol/L of increment), the trained group experienced a stable Tosm physical effort (1.45 mmol/L). There was a significant positive linear association between fat indices and Tosm changes (correlation coefficients [r] range: 0.77-0.89), whereas the Tosm changes displayed a negative relationship with the cardiorespiratory capacity (VO2 max; r = -0.75) and performance parameters (r = -0.75 for velocity, and r = -0.67 for time to exhaustion). The findings from this study provide evidence that fitness level is a major determinant of Tosm response to maximal incremental physical effort, showing a fairly linear association with several indices related to fitness level. High fitness level seems to be beneficial to avoid Tosm changes as consequence of intense exercise. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sugar-sweetened beverages and dental caries in adults: a 4-year prospective study.

PubMed

Bernabé, Eduardo; Vehkalahti, Miira M; Sheiham, Aubrey; Aromaa, Arpo; Suominen, Anna L

2014-08-01

To explore the association between frequency of consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) and caries increment over 4 years in adults. A second objective was to explore whether the association between frequency of SSB consumption and caries increment varied by socio-demographic characteristics and use of fluoride toothpaste. Data from 939 dentate adults who participated in both the Health 2000 Survey and the Follow-Up Study of Finnish Adults' Oral Health were analysed. At baseline, participants provided information on demographic characteristics, education and dental behaviours, including two questions on frequency of SSB consumption. The 4-year net DMFT increment was calculated using data from baseline and follow-up clinical oral examinations. The association was tested in negative binomial regression models and the moderating role of sex, age, education and use of fluoride toothpaste was examined by adding their two-way interaction with SSB consumption to the main effects model. A positive association was found between frequency of SBS consumption and 4-year net DMFT increment, regardless of participants' socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics. Adults drinking 1-2 and 3+ SSB daily had, respectively, 31% (Incidence Rate Ratio: 1.31; 95%CI: 1.02-1.67) and 33% (IRR: 1.33; 95%CI; 1.03-1.72) greater net DMFT increments than those not drinking any SSB. None of the four two-way interaction terms was significant (all p>0.05). There seems to be a dose-response relationship between frequency of SSB consumption and caries increment in adults. That association was consistent across socio-demographic characteristics, and more importantly, use of fluoride toothpaste. Drinking sugar-sweetened beverages on a daily basis is related to greater caries risk in adults. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diffusion-Weighted Magnetic Resonance Imaging Early After Chemoradiotherapy to Monitor Treatment Response in Head-and-Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vandecaveye, Vincent, E-mail: Vincent.Vandecaveye@uzleuven.be; Dirix, Piet; De Keyzer, Frederik

2012-03-01

Purpose: To evaluate diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) for assessment of treatment response in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) three weeks after the end of chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Methods and Materials: Twenty-nine patients with HNSCC underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) prior to and 3 weeks after CRT, including T{sub 2}-weighted and pre- and postcontrast T{sub 1}-weighted sequences and an echo-planar DWI sequence with six b values (0 to 1,000 s/mm{sup 2}), from which the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) was calculated. ADC changes 3 weeks posttreatment compared to baseline ( Increment ADC) between responding and nonresponding primary lesions and adenopathies were correlatedmore » with 2 years locoregional control and compared with a Mann-Whitney test. In a blinded manner, the Increment ADC was compared to conventional MRI 3 weeks post-CRT and the routinely implemented CT, on average 3 months post-CRT, which used size-related and morphological criteria. Positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV, respectively) were compared between the Increment ADC and anatomical imaging. Results: The Increment ADC of lesions with later tumor recurrence was significantly lower than lesions with complete remission for both primary lesions (-2.3% {+-} 0.3% vs. 80% {+-} 41%; p < 0.0001) and adenopathies (19.9% {+-} 32% vs. 63% {+-} 36%; p = 0.003). The Increment ADC showed a PPV of 89% and an NPV of 100% for primary lesions and a PPV of 70% and an NPV of 96% for adenopathies per neck side. DWI improved PPV and NPV compared to anatomical imaging. Conclusion: DWI with the Increment ADC 3 weeks after concluding CRT for HNSCC allows for early assessment of treatment response.« less

Non-additive effects of ocean acidification in combination with warming on the larval proteome of the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas.

PubMed

Harney, Ewan; Artigaud, Sébastien; Le Souchu, Pierrick; Miner, Philippe; Corporeau, Charlotte; Essid, Hafida; Pichereau, Vianney; Nunes, Flavia L D

2016-03-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide results in ocean acidification and warming, significantly impacting marine invertebrate larvae development. We investigated how ocean acidification in combination with warming affected D-veliger larvae of the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas. Larvae were reared for 40h under either control (pH8.1, 20 °C), acidified (pH7.9, 20 °C), warm (pH8.1, 22 °C) or warm acidified (pH7.9, 22 °C) conditions. Larvae in acidified conditions were significantly smaller than in the control, but warm acidified conditions mitigated negative effects on size, and increased calcification. A proteomic approach employing two-dimensional electrophoresis (2-DE) was used to quantify proteins and relate their abundance to phenotypic traits. In total 12 differentially abundant spots were identified by nano-liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. These proteins had roles in metabolism, intra- and extra-cellular matrix formations, stress response, and as molecular chaperones. Seven spots responded to reduced pH, four to increased temperature, and six to acidification and warming. Reduced abundance of proteins such as ATP synthase and GAPDH, and increased abundance of superoxide dismutase, occurred when both pH and temperature changes were imposed, suggesting altered metabolism and enhanced oxidative stress. These results identify key proteins that may be involved in the acclimation of C. gigas larvae to ocean acidification and warming. Increasing atmospheric CO2 raises sea surface temperatures and results in ocean acidification, two climatic variables known to impact marine organisms. Larvae of calcifying species may be particularly at risk to such changing environmental conditions. The Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas is ecologically and commercially important, and understanding its ability to acclimate to climate change will help to predict how aquaculture of this species is likely to be impacted. Modest, yet realistic changes in pH and/or temperature may be more informative of how populations will respond to contemporary climate change. We showed that concurrent acidification and warming mitigates the negative effects of pH alone on size of larvae, but proteomic analysis reveals altered patterns of metabolism and an increase in oxidative stress suggesting non-additive effects of the interaction between pH and temperature on protein abundance. Thus, even small changes in climate may influence development, with potential consequences later in life. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Relationships between trait urgency, smoking reinforcement expectancies, and nicotine dependence

PubMed Central

Pang, Raina D.; Hom, Marianne S.; Geary, Bree A.; Doran, Neal; Spillane, Nichea S.; Guillot, Casey R.; Leventhal, Adam M.

2014-01-01

Urgency (i.e. the tendency to act rashly during negative/positive affect) may increase vulnerability to a variety of risky behaviors. This cross-sectional study of non-treatment-seeking smokers examined the relationship between urgency, level of nicotine dependence, and smoking reinforcement expectancies. Both positive and negative urgency were associated with nicotine dependence. Mediational analyses illustrated that smoking reinforcement expectancies significantly accounted for urgency-dependence relations, with negative reinforcement expectancies displaying incremental mediational effects. If replicated and extended, these findings may support the use of treatments that modify beliefs regarding smoking reinforcement outcomes as a means of buffering the risk of nicotine dependence carried by urgency. PMID:24784229

Long-term comparison of the climate extremes variability in different climate types located in coastal and inland regions of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghiami-Shamami, Fereshteh; Sabziparvar, Ali Akbar; Shinoda, Seirou

2018-06-01

The present study examined annually and seasonally trends in climate-based and location-based indices after detection of artificial change points and application of homogenization. Thirteen temperature and eight precipitation indices were generated at 27 meteorological stations over Iran during 1961-2012. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were applied for trend detection. Results revealed that almost all indices based on minimum temperature followed warmer conditions. Indicators based on minimum temperature showed less consistency with more cold and less warm events. Climate-based results for all extremes indicated semi-arid climate had the most warming events. Moreover, based on location-based results, inland areas showed the most signs of warming. Indices based on precipitation exhibited a negative trend in warm seasons, with the most changes in coastal areas and inland, respectively. Results provided evidence of warming and drying since the 1990s. Changes in precipitation indices were much weaker and less spatially coherent. Summer was found to be the most sensitive season, in comparison with winter. For arid and semi-arid regions, by increasing the latitude, less warm events occurred, while increasing the longitude led to more warming events. Overall, Iran is dominated by a significant increase in warm events, especially minimum temperature-based indices (nighttime). This result, in addition to fewer precipitation events, suggests a generally dryer regime for the future, which is more evident in the warm season of semi-arid sites. The results could provide beneficial references for water resources and eco-environmental policymakers.

Extreme Temperature Exceedances Change more Rapidly Under Future Warming in Regions of non-Gaussian Short Temperature Distribution Tails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, P. C.; Neelin, J. D.; Meyerson, J.

2017-12-01

Regions of shorter-than-Gaussian warm and cold side temperature distribution tails are shown to occur in spatially coherent patterns in the current climate. Under such conditions, warming may be manifested in more complex ways than if the underlying distribution were close to Gaussian. For example, under a uniform warm shift, the simplest prototype for future warming, a location with a short warm side tail would experience a greater increase in extreme warm exceedances compared to if the distribution were Gaussian. Similarly, for a location with a short cold side tail, a uniform warm shift would result in a rapid decrease in extreme cold exceedances. Both scenarios carry major societal and environmental implications including but not limited to negative impacts on human and ecosystem health, agriculture, and the economy. It is therefore important for climate models to be able to realistically reproduce short tails in simulations of historical climate in order to boost confidence in projections of future temperature extremes. Overall, climate models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project capture many of the principal observed regions of short tails. This suggests the underlying dynamics and physics occur on scales resolved by the models, and helps build confidence in model projections of extremes. Furthermore, most GCMs show more rapid changes in exceedances of extreme temperature thresholds in regions of short tails. Results therefore suggest that the shape of the tails of the underlying temperature distribution is an indicator of how rapidly a location will experience changes to extreme temperature occurrence under future warming.

Photosynthetic temperature responses of tree species in Rwanda: evidence of pronounced negative effects of high temperature in montane rainforest climax species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vårhammar, Angelica; Wallin, Göran; McLean, Christopher M.; Dusenge, Mirindi Eric; Medlyn, Belinda E.; Hasper, Thomas B.; Nsabimana, Donat; Uddling, Johan

2015-04-01

The sensitivity of photosynthetic metabolism to temperature has been identified as a key uncertainty for projecting the magnitude of the terrestrial feedback on future climate change. While temperature responses of photosynthetic capacities have been comparatively well investigated in temperate species, the responses of tropical tree species remain unexplored. We compared the responses of seedlings of native cold-adapted tropical montane rainforest tree species to exotic warm-adapted plantation species, all growing in an intermediate temperature common garden in Rwanda. Leaf gas exchange responses to CO2 at different temperatures (20 - 40 C) were used to assess the temperature responses of biochemical photosynthetic capacities. Analyses revealed a lower optimum temperature for photosynthetic electron transport rates than for Rubisco carboxylation rates, along with lower electron transport optima in the native cold-adapted than in the exotic warm-adapted species. The photosynthetic optimum temperatures were generally exceeded by daytime peak leaf temperatures, in particular in the native montane rainforest climax species. This study thus provides evidence of pronounced negative effects of high temperature in tropical trees and indicates high susceptibility of montane rainforest climax species to future global warming. (Reference: New Phytologist, in press)

Asymmetries of Dark and Bright Negative Afterimages Are Paralleled by Subcortical ON and OFF Poststimulus Responses.

PubMed

Li, Hui; Liu, Xu; Andolina, Ian M; Li, Xiaohong; Lu, Yiliang; Spillmann, Lothar; Wang, Wei

2017-02-22

Humans are more sensitive to luminance decrements than increments, as evidenced by lower thresholds and shorter latencies for dark stimuli. This asymmetry is consistent with results of neurophysiological recordings in dorsal lateral geniculate nucleus (dLGN) and primary visual cortex (V1) of cat and monkey. Specifically, V1 population responses demonstrate that darks elicit higher levels of activation than brights, and the latency of OFF responses in dLGN and V1 is shorter than that of ON responses. The removal of a dark or bright disc often generates the perception of a negative afterimage, and here we ask whether there also exist asymmetries for negative afterimages elicited by dark and bright discs. If so, do the poststimulus responses of subcortical ON and OFF cells parallel such afterimage asymmetries? To test these hypotheses, we performed psychophysical experiments in humans and single-cell/S-potential recordings in cat dLGN. Psychophysically, we found that bright afterimages elicited by luminance decrements are stronger and last longer than dark afterimages elicited by luminance increments of equal sizes. Neurophysiologically, we found that ON cells responded to the removal of a dark disc with higher firing rates that were maintained for longer than OFF cells to the removal of a bright disc. The ON and OFF cell asymmetry was most pronounced at long stimulus durations in the dLGN. We conclude that subcortical response strength differences between ON and OFF channels parallel the asymmetries between bright and dark negative afterimages, further supporting a subcortical origin of bright and dark afterimage perception. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Afterimages are physiological aftereffects following stimulation of the eye, the study of which helps us to understand how our visual brain generates visual perception in the absence of physical stimuli. We report, for the first time to our knowledge, asymmetries between bright and dark negative afterimages elicited by luminance decrements and increments, respectively. Bright afterimages are stronger and last longer than dark afterimages. Subcortical neuronal recordings of poststimulus responses of ON and OFF cells reveal similar asymmetries with respect to response strength and duration. Our results suggest that subcortical differences between ON and OFF channels help explain intensity and duration asymmetries between bright and dark afterimages, supporting the notion of a subcortical origin of bright and dark afterimages. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/371984-13$15.00/0.

Irrigation offsets wheat yield reductions from warming temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Hendricks, Nathan

2017-11-01

Temperature increases due to climate change are expected to cause substantial reductions in global wheat yields. However, uncertainty remains regarding the potential role for irrigation as an adaptation strategy to offset heat impacts. Here we utilize over 7000 observations spanning eleven Kansas field-trial locations, 180 varieties, and 29 years to show that irrigation significantly reduces the negative impact of warming temperatures on winter wheat yields. Dryland wheat yields are estimated to decrease about eight percent for every one-degree Celsius increase in temperature, yet irrigation completely offsets this negative impact in our sample. As in previous studies, we find that important interactions exist between heat stress and precipitation for dryland production. Here, uniquely, we observe both dryland and irrigated trials side-by-side at the same locations and find that precipitation does not provide the same reduction in heat stress as irrigation. This is likely to be because the timing, intensity, and volume of water applications influence wheat yields, so the ability to irrigate—rather than relying on rainfall alone—has a stronger influence on heat stress. We find evidence of extensive differences of water-deficit stress impacts across varieties. This provides some evidence of the potential for adapting to hotter and drier climate conditions using optimal variety selection. Overall, our results highlight the critical role of water management for future global food security. Water scarcity not only reduces crop yields through water-deficit stress, but also amplifies the negative effects of warming temperatures.

Intensified impact of tropical Atlantic SST on the western North Pacific summer climate under a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Wei; Lee, June-Yi; Lu, Riyu; Dong, Buwen; Ha, Kyung-Ja

2015-10-01

The tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) has been identified as one of regulators on the boreal summer climate over the western North Pacific (WNP), in addition to SSTs in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. The major physical process proposed is that the TNA warming induces a pair of cyclonic circulation anomaly over the eastern Pacific and negative precipitation anomalies over the eastern to central tropical Pacific, which in turn lead to an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the western to central North Pacific. This study further demonstrates that the modulation of the TNA warming to the WNP summer climate anomaly tends to be intensified under background of the weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) by using a water-hosing experiment. The results suggest that the weakened THC induces a decrease in thermocline depth over the TNA region, resulting in the enhanced sensitivity of SST variability to wind anomalies and thus intensification of the interannual variation of TNA SST. Under the weakened THC, the atmospheric responses to the TNA warming are westward shifted, enhancing the anticyclonic circulation and negative precipitation anomaly over the WNP. This study supports the recent finding that the negative phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation after the late 1960s has been favourable for the strengthening of the connection between TNA SST variability and WNP summer climate and has important implications for seasonal prediction and future projection of the WNP summer climate.

Combined Effects of Ocean Warming and Acidification on Copepod Abundance, Body Size and Fatty Acid Content.

PubMed

Garzke, Jessica; Hansen, Thomas; Ismar, Stefanie M H; Sommer, Ulrich

2016-01-01

Concerns about increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming have initiated studies on the consequences of multiple-stressor interactions on marine organisms and ecosystems. We present a fully-crossed factorial mesocosm study and assess how warming and acidification affect the abundance, body size, and fatty acid composition of copepods as a measure of nutritional quality. The experimental set-up allowed us to determine whether the effects of warming and acidification act additively, synergistically, or antagonistically on the abundance, body size, and fatty acid content of copepods, a major group of lower level consumers in marine food webs. Copepodite (developmental stages 1-5) and nauplii abundance were antagonistically affected by warming and acidification. Higher temperature decreased copepodite and nauplii abundance, while acidification partially compensated for the temperature effect. The abundance of adult copepods was negatively affected by warming. The prosome length of copepods was significantly reduced by warming, and the interaction of warming and CO2 antagonistically affected prosome length. Fatty acid composition was also significantly affected by warming. The content of saturated fatty acids increased, and the ratios of the polyunsaturated essential fatty acids docosahexaenoic- (DHA) and arachidonic acid (ARA) to total fatty acid content increased with higher temperatures. Additionally, here was a significant additive interaction effect of both parameters on arachidonic acid. Our results indicate that in a future ocean scenario, acidification might partially counteract some observed effects of increased temperature on zooplankton, while adding to others. These may be results of a fertilizing effect on phytoplankton as a copepod food source. In summary, copepod populations will be more strongly affected by warming rather than by acidifying oceans, but ocean acidification effects can modify some temperature impacts.

Combined Effects of Ocean Warming and Acidification on Copepod Abundance, Body Size and Fatty Acid Content

PubMed Central

Hansen, Thomas; Ismar, Stefanie M. H.; Sommer, Ulrich

2016-01-01

Concerns about increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming have initiated studies on the consequences of multiple-stressor interactions on marine organisms and ecosystems. We present a fully-crossed factorial mesocosm study and assess how warming and acidification affect the abundance, body size, and fatty acid composition of copepods as a measure of nutritional quality. The experimental set-up allowed us to determine whether the effects of warming and acidification act additively, synergistically, or antagonistically on the abundance, body size, and fatty acid content of copepods, a major group of lower level consumers in marine food webs. Copepodite (developmental stages 1–5) and nauplii abundance were antagonistically affected by warming and acidification. Higher temperature decreased copepodite and nauplii abundance, while acidification partially compensated for the temperature effect. The abundance of adult copepods was negatively affected by warming. The prosome length of copepods was significantly reduced by warming, and the interaction of warming and CO2 antagonistically affected prosome length. Fatty acid composition was also significantly affected by warming. The content of saturated fatty acids increased, and the ratios of the polyunsaturated essential fatty acids docosahexaenoic- (DHA) and arachidonic acid (ARA) to total fatty acid content increased with higher temperatures. Additionally, here was a significant additive interaction effect of both parameters on arachidonic acid. Our results indicate that in a future ocean scenario, acidification might partially counteract some observed effects of increased temperature on zooplankton, while adding to others. These may be results of a fertilizing effect on phytoplankton as a copepod food source. In summary, copepod populations will be more strongly affected by warming rather than by acidifying oceans, but ocean acidification effects can modify some temperature impacts. PMID:27224476

Response of diatoms and silicoflagellates to climate change in the Santa Barbara Basin during the past 250 years and the rise of the toxic diatom Pseudo-nitzschia australis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barron, John A.; Bukry, David; Field, David B.; Finney, Bruce

2013-01-01

Diatoms and silicoflagellate assemblages were examined in two year-increments of varved samples spanning the interval from 1748 through 2007 in Santa Barbara Basin (SBB) box core SBBC0806 to determine the timing and impact of possible 20th century warming on several different components of the plankton. Diatoms (Thalassionema nitzschioides =TN) and silicoflagellates (Distephanus speculum s.l. =DS) indicative of cooler waters and a shallow thermocline begin to decline in the 1920s and persistently compose a lower percentage of the assemblage in the SBB by about 1940. Prior to 1940, TN constituted on average ~30% of the Chaetoceros-free diatom sediment assemblage and DS on average ~36% of the silicoflagellate assemblage. Between 1940 and 1996 these relative abundances were ~20% (TN) and ~8% (DS). These results are consistent with results from planktonic foraminifera and radiolarians that indicate an influence of 20th century warming on marine ecosystems before most scientific observations began. Cooling of surface waters coincident with the one of the strongest La Niña events of the 20th century (and a return to negative PDO conditions) in late 1998 brought about a return to pre-1940 values of these cool water taxa (TN ~31%, DS ~25%). However, this recent regional cooling appears to have been accompanied by profound changes in the diatom assemblage. Pseudo-nitzschia australis, and Pseudo-nitzschia multiseries, diatom species associated with domoic acid, a neurotoxin that causes shellfish poisoning and marine mammal deaths, rapidly became dominant in the SBB sediment record at the time of the regional cooling (1999) and increased substantially in numbers as a bloom-forming taxon (relative to Chaetoceros spores) in 2003. Prior to 2003 diatom blooms recorded in the SBB sediment record consisted predominantly of Chaetoceros spores and less commonly of Rhizosolenia-related species (Neocalyptrella robusta and R. setigera). Fecal pellets dominated by valves of P. australis, however, were particularly abundant in both the 2003 and 2006 samples, coincident with recorded incidents of domoic acid increase and widespread shellfish poisoning in the SBB.

Change detection and difference detection of tone duration discrimination.

PubMed

Okazaki, Shuntaro; Kanoh, Shin'ichiro; Takaura, Kana; Tsukada, Minoru; Oka, Kotaro

2006-03-20

An event-related potential called mismatch negativity is known to exhibit physiological evidence of sensory memory. Mismatch negativity is believed to represent complicated neuronal mechanisms in a variety of animals and in humans. We employed the auditory oddball paradigm varying sound durations and observed two types of duration mismatch negativity in anesthetized guinea pigs. One was a duration mismatch negativity whose increase in peak amplitude occurred immediately after onset of the stimulus difference in a decrement oddball paradigm. The other exhibited a peak amplitude increase closer to the offset of the longer stimulus in an increment oddball paradigm. These results demonstrated a mechanism to percept the difference of duration change and revealed the importance of the end of a stimulus for this perception.

Characterizing the Seasonality and Spatiotemporal Evolution of the U.S. Warming Hole

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partridge, T.; Winter, J.; Osterberg, E. C.; Magilligan, F. J.; Hyndman, D. W.; Kendall, A. D.

2017-12-01

Regions of the Eastern United States have experienced periods of cooling during the last half of the twentieth century inconsistent with broader global warming trends. While there have been a variety of mechanisms proposed to explain this "warming hole", the spatial and temporal definitions of the warming hole often differ across studies, potentially obfuscating the physical drivers leading to its existence. Further, a broad consensus on the causality of the warming hole has yet to be reached. We use daily temperature data from the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) to conduct a thorough characterization of the spatiotemporal evolution and seasonality of regional cooling across the Eastern U.S., and define a dynamic warming hole as the region of most persistent cooling. We find that the location of the dynamic warming hole varies by season from the Midwestern U.S. during summer to the Southeastern U.S. during winter. In addition, the cool period associated with the warming hole is characterized by an abrupt decrease in maximum temperature (Tx) and a decline in minimum temperature (Tn) around 1957. While average Tn values in the warming hole recover after the decline and increase from the mid 1960's to present, Tx values for the second half of the 20th century remain below observed values from the first half of the century. To explore large-scale atmospheric drivers of the dynamic warming hole, we correlate SST teleconnection and regional atmospheric circulation indices with seasonal temperature values from 1901-1957 and 1958-2015. We show that 1957 marks a shift, where winter temperatures in the warming hole become more correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and less correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Summer warming hole temperatures become less correlated with the NAO post 1957 and are strongly negatively correlated with precipitation.

Influence of perfusate temperature on nasal potential difference.

PubMed

Bronsveld, Inez; Vermeulen, François; Sands, Dorotha; Leal, Teresinha; Leonard, Anissa; Melotti, Paola; Yaakov, Yasmin; de Nooijer, Roel; De Boeck, Kris; Sermet, Isabelle; Wilschanski, Michael; Middleton, Peter G

2013-08-01

Nasal potential difference (NPD) quantifies abnormal ion transport in cystic fibrosis. It has gained acceptance as an outcome measure for the investigation of new therapies. To quantify the effect of solution temperature on NPD, we first examined the effect of switching from room temperature (20-25°C) to warmed (32-37°C) solutions and vice versa during each perfusion step. Secondly, standard protocols were repeated at both temperatures in the same subjects. Changing solution temperature did not alter NPD during perfusion with Ringer's solution (<1 mV) (p>0.1). During perfusion with zero chloride solution, changing from room temperature to warmed solutions tended to decrease absolute NPD (i.e. it became less negative) by 0.9 mV (p>0.1); changing from warmed to room temperature increased NPD by 2.1 mV (p<0.05). During isoprenaline perfusion, changing from room temperature to warmed solutions increased NPD by 1.5 mV (p<0.01) and from warmed to room temperature decreased NPD by 1.4 mV (p<0.05). For full protocols at room temperature or warmed in the same subjects, mean values were similar (n = 24). During warmed perfusion, group results for total chloride response had a larger standard deviation. As this increased variability will probably decrease the power of trials, this study suggests that solutions at room temperature should be recommended for the measurement of NPD.

How are warm and cool years in the California Current related to ENSO?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiedler, Paul C.; Mantua, Nathan J.

2017-07-01

The tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual variability that impacts climate throughout the Pacific. The California Current System (CCS) in the northeast Pacific warms and cools from year to year, with or without a corresponding tropical El Niño or La Niña event. We update the record of warm and cool events in the CCS for 1950-2016 and use composite sea level pressure (SLP) and surface wind anomalies to explore the atmospheric forcing mechanisms associated with tropical and CCS warm and cold events. CCS warm events are associated with negative SLP anomalies in the NE Pacific—a strong and southeastward displacement of the wintertime Aleutian Low, a weak North Pacific High, and a regional pattern of cyclonic wind anomalies that are poleward over the CCS. We use a first-order autoregressive model to show that regional North Pacific forcing is predominant in SST variations throughout most of the CCS, while remote tropical forcing is more important in the far southern portion of the CCS. In our analysis, cool events in the CCS tend to be more closely associated with tropical La Niña than are warm events in the CCS with tropical El Niño; the forcing of co-occurring cool events is analogous, but nearly opposite, to that of warm events.

Correlation of the plasma sphingoid base profile with results from oral glucose tolerance tests in gestational diabetes mellitus

PubMed Central

Khan, Abad; Hornemann, Thorsten

2017-01-01

Oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) is usually insufficient to accurately predict the risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), it is therefore necessary to identify an additional biomarker that would most likely improve the accuracy of OGTT. The current OGTT was performed in 53 volunteers after ingestion of 75 g glucose in 250 ml water to each volunteer. Similarly the sphingoid base profile of these volunteers was explored using liquid-chromatography linked with mass spectrometer (LC-MS) and correlated with the different time-points glucose values of OGTT as well as with total area under the curve (tAUC), incremental area under the curve (iAUC), and positive incremental area under the curve (pAUC). The findings showed that 1-deoxysphinganine (1-deoxySA) was significantly positively correlated with the 1-hour, 2-hour, and 3-hour plasma glucose level as well as with total, incremental, and positive incremental AUC while 1-deoxysphingosine (1-deoxySO) was correlated only with 1-hour, 2-hour glucose levels and tAUC of OGTT. The C18SAdiene was negatively correlated with all-time points glucose values and AUCs followed by negative correlation of C18SO, C16SO and C17SO with 2-hour glucose and tAUC of OGTT. The ratios of 1-deoxySA and 1-deoxySO with respect to C18SAdiene have shown significant correlation with 2-hour and AUCs. These ratios were higher in subjects with gestational diabetes in comparison with normal subjects. These findings underlined that 1-deoxysphingolipids (1-deoxySLs) and their ratios with C18SAdiene could be significantly correlated with the glucose load of OGTT and might be used as predictive biomarkers along with OGTT for the risk assessment of diabetes. PMID:28694753

Lack of genetic variation in tree ring delta13C suggests a uniform, stomatally-driven response to drought stress across Pinus radiata genotypes.

PubMed

Rowell, Douglas M; Ades, Peter K; Tausz, Michael; Arndt, Stefan K; Adams, Mark A

2009-02-01

We assessed the variation in delta(13)C signatures of Pinus radiata D. Don stemwood taken from three genetic trials in southern Australia. We sought to determine the potential of using delta(13)C signatures as selection criteria for drought tolerance. Increment cores were taken from P. radiata and were used to determine the basal area increment and the delta(13)C signature of extracted cellulose. Both growth increment and cellulose delta(13)C were affected by water availability. Growth increment and delta(13)C were negatively correlated suggesting that growth was water-limited. While there was significant genetic variation in growth, there was no significant genetic variation in cellulose delta(13)C of tree rings. This suggests that different genotypes of P. radiata display significant differences in growth and yet respond similarly to drought stress. The delta(13)C response to drought stress was more due to changes in stomatal conductance than to the variation in photosynthetic capacity, and this may explain the lack of genetic variation in delta(13)C. The lack of genetic variation in cellulose delta(13)C of tree rings precludes its use as a selection criterion for drought tolerance among P. radiata genotypes.

Tenacious D: Symbiodinium in clade D remain in reef corals at both high and low temperature extremes despite impairment.

PubMed

Silverstein, Rachel N; Cunning, Ross; Baker, Andrew C

2017-04-01

Reef corals are sensitive to thermal stress, which induces coral bleaching (the loss of algal symbionts), often leading to coral mortality. However, corals hosting certain symbionts (notably some members of Symbiodinium clade D) resist bleaching when exposed to high temperatures. To determine whether these symbionts are also cold tolerant, we exposed corals hosting either Symbiodinium C3 or D1a to incremental warming (+1°C week -1 to 35°C) and cooling (-1°C week -1 to 15°C), and measured photodamage and symbiont loss. During warming to 33°C, C3 corals were photodamaged and lost >99% of symbionts, while D1a corals experienced photodamage but did not bleach. During cooling, D1a corals suffered more photodamage than C3 corals but still did not bleach, while C3 corals lost 94% of symbionts. These results indicate that photodamage does not always lead to bleaching, suggesting alternate mechanisms exist by which symbionts resist bleaching, and helping explain the persistence of D1a symbionts on recently bleached reefs, with implications for the future of these ecosystems. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

CO2LD: An Educational Innovation Project for Advanced Vocational Training in Refrigeration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sánchez, Daniel; Llopis, Rodrigo; Patiño, Jorge; Cabello, Ramón; Torrella, Enrique

2013-01-01

Refrigeration is one of the technology sectors that has suffered the most changes in the last twenty years, because of the negative impact of the fluids used in the refrigeration cycles, i.e., refrigerants, due to their impact on the ozone layer and their contribution to global warming. As a result of their negative effects, the European Union has…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Jae-Min; Kim, Doyoung; Kim, Hyungjun

We investigated the ultraviolet (UV) light photostability of plasma-enhanced and thermal atomic layer deposition of ZnO thin film transistor (TFT). The negative shift of threshold voltage was similarly observed in both cases by UV exposure due to the increment of carrier concentration. Additionally, the transfer curves of TFT using thermal ALD ZnO:N active layer were exhibited recovery characteristics.

Adrenal steroids in post-menopausal women: relation to obesity and to bone mineral content.

PubMed

Brody, S; Carlström, K; Lagrelius, A; Lunell, N O; Möllerström, G

1987-04-01

Basal levels and ACTH-induced increments of serum 17 alpha-hydroxyprogesterone (170HP), cortisol, 4-androstene-3,17-dione (A-4), dehydroepiandrosterone (DHA), and dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHAS) were related to the degree of obesity and to trabecular bone mineral density in 29 postmenopausal women. The ACTH-induced increment of 170HP (delta 170HP) was negatively correlated to basal DHA and delta DHA. Positive correlations were found between obesity, expressed as Broca's index, and delta DHA and the delta DHA/delta 170HP ratio. Bone mineral density was positively correlated to basal DHAS, delta DHA, delta DHAS and the delta DHA/delta 170HP ratio, and negatively correlated to delta 170HP. DHA and 170HP represent a crossroad in adrenocortical steroid biosynthesis, leading to delta 5-androgens and glucocorticoids as main products. Besides age, obesity may also influence the intra-adrenal distribution between these two main steroidogenic pathways. The results suggest that differences at a very early stage of the adrenal steroidogenesis may influence calcium homeostasis in the post-menopausal woman.

Temperament and self-based correlates of cooperative, competitive and individualistic learning preferences.

PubMed

Gocłowska, Małgorzata A; Aldhobaiban, Nawal; Elliot, Andrew J; Murayama, Kou; Kobeisy, Ahmed; Abdelaziz, Ashraf

2017-06-01

People vary in the extent to which they prefer cooperative, competitive or individualistic achievement tasks. In this research, we conducted two studies designed to investigate correlates and possible roots of these social interdependence orientations, namely approach and avoidance temperament, general self-efficacy, implicit theories of intelligence, and contingencies of self-worth based in others' approval, competition and academic competence. The results indicated that approach temperament, general self-efficacy and incremental theory were positively related, and entity theory was negatively related to cooperative preferences (|r| range from .11 to .41); approach temperament, general self-efficacy, competition contingencies and academic competence contingencies were positively related to competitive preferences (|r| range from .16 to .46); and avoidance temperament, entity theory, competitive contingencies and academic competence contingencies were positively related, and incremental theory was negatively related to individualistic preferences (|r| range from .09 to .15). The findings are discussed with regard to the meaning of each of the three social interdependence orientations, cultural differences among the observed relations and implications for practitioners. © 2015 International Union of Psychological Science.

Prediction-Market-Based Quantification of Climate Change Consensus and Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boslough, M.

2012-12-01

Intrade is an online trading exchange that includes climate prediction markets. One such family of contracts can be described as "Global temperature anomaly for 2012 to be greater than x °C or more," where the figure x ranges in increments of .05 from .30 to 1.10 (relative to the 1951-1980 base period), based on data published by NASA GISS. Each market will settle at 10.00 if the published global temperature anomaly for 2012 is equal to or greater than x, and will otherwise settle at 0.00. Similar contracts will be available for 2013. Global warming hypotheses can be cast as probabilistic predictions for future temperatures. The first modern such climate prediction is that of Broecker (1975), whose temperatures are easily separable from his CO2 growth scenario—which he overestimated—by interpolating his table of temperature as a function of CO2 concentration and projecting the current trend into the near future. For the current concentration of 395 ppm, Broecker's equilibrium temperature anomaly prediction relative to pre-industrial is 1.05 °C, or about 0.75 °C relative to the GISS base period. His neglect of lag in response to the changes in radiative forcing was partially compensated by his low sensitivity of 2.4 °C, leading to a slight overestimate. Simple linear extrapolation of the current trend since 1975 yields an estimate of .65 ± .09 °C (net warming of .95 °C) for anthropogenic global warming with a normal distribution of random natural variability. To evaluate an extreme case, we can estimate the prediction Broecker would have made if he had used the Lindzen & Choi (2009) climate sensitivity of 0.5 °C. The net post-industrial warming by 2012 would have been 0.21 °C, for an expected change of -0.09 from the GISS base period. This is the temperature to which the Earth would be expected to revert if the observed warming since the 19th century was merely due to random natural variability that coincidentally mimicked Broecker's anthropogenic change prediction for the past 36 years. Assertions made outside the scientific literature can also be cast into predictions for 2012 temperatures, for example Carter's (2006) argument for a lack of warming since 1998 can be extrapolated to a 2012 value of 0.56 °C (net warming of .86 °C), and Easterbrook's (2010) claim of global cooling can be extrapolated to a 2012 value of .42 °C (net warming of .72 °C). All contracts in the current market ensembles are consistent with net warming from pre-industrial temperatures. They are also capable of distinguishing the level of acceptance of the various global warming hypotheses, even by their respective proponents. Moreover, they can be used as a market-based consensus estimate of future warming and climate variability that is weighted according to level of risk taken on by those providing the estimates, while filtering out the opinions of individuals unwilling to accept any financial risk associated with being wrong.

A reduction in the asymmetry of ENSO amplitude due to global warming: The role of atmospheric feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun

2017-08-01

This study analyzes a reduction in the asymmetry of El Niño Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude due to global warming in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. The multimodel-averaged Niño3 skewness during December-February season decreased approximately 40% in the RCP4.5 scenario compared to that in the historical simulation. The change in the nonlinear relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation is a key factor for understanding the reduction in ENSO asymmetry due to global warming. In the historical simulations, the background SST leading to the greatest precipitation sensitivity (SST for Maximum Precipitation Sensitivity, SST_MPS) occurs when the positive SST anomaly is located over the equatorial central Pacific. Therefore, an increase in climatological SST due to global warming weakens the atmospheric response during El Niño over the central Pacific. However, the climatological SST over this region in the historical simulation is still lower than the SST_MPS for the negative SST anomaly; therefore, a background SST increase due to global warming can further increase precipitation sensitivity. The atmospheric feedbacks during La Niña are enhanced and increase the La Niña amplitude due to global warming.

Vascular plant abundance and diversity in an alpine heath under observed and simulated global change

PubMed Central

Alatalo, Juha M.; Little, Chelsea J.; Jägerbrand, Annika K.; Molau, Ulf

2015-01-01

Global change is predicted to cause shifts in species distributions and biodiversity in arctic tundra. We applied factorial warming and nutrient manipulation to a nutrient and species poor alpine/arctic heath community for seven years. Vascular plant abundance in control plots increased by 31%. There were also notable changes in cover in the nutrient and combined nutrient and warming treatments, with deciduous and evergreen shrubs declining, grasses overgrowing these plots. Sedge abundance initially increased significantly with nutrient amendment and then declined, going below initial values in the combined nutrient and warming treatment. Nutrient addition resulted in a change in dominance hierarchy from deciduous shrubs to grasses. We found significant declines in vascular plant diversity and evenness in the warming treatment and a decline in diversity in the combined warming and nutrient addition treatment, while nutrient addition caused a decline in species richness. The results give some experimental support that species poor plant communities with low diversity may be more vulnerable to loss of species diversity than communities with higher initial diversity. The projected increase in nutrient deposition and warming may therefore have negative impacts on ecosystem processes, functioning and services due to loss of species diversity in an already impoverished environment. PMID:25950370

Local atmospheric response to warm mesoscale ocean eddies in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Confluence region.

PubMed

Sugimoto, Shusaku; Aono, Kenji; Fukui, Shin

2017-09-19

In the extratropical regions, surface winds enhance upward heat release from the ocean to atmosphere, resulting in cold surface ocean: surface ocean temperature is negatively correlated with upward heat flux. However, in the western boundary currents and eddy-rich regions, the warmer surface waters compared to surrounding waters enhance upward heat release-a positive correlation between upward heat release and surface ocean temperature, implying that the ocean drives the atmosphere. The atmospheric response to warm mesoscale ocean eddies with a horizontal extent of a few hundred kilometers remains unclear because of a lack of observations. By conducting regional atmospheric model experiments, we show that, in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Confluence region, wintertime warm eddies heat the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), and accelerate westerly winds in the near-surface atmosphere via the vertical mixing effect, leading to wind convergence around the eastern edge of eddies. The warm-eddy-induced convergence forms local ascending motion where convective precipitation is enhanced, providing diabatic heating to the atmosphere above MABL. Our results indicate that warm eddies affect not only near-surface atmosphere but also free atmosphere, and possibly synoptic atmospheric variability. A detailed understanding of warm eddy-atmosphere interaction is necessary to improve in weather and climate projections.

The role of deep nitrogen and dynamic rooting profiles on vegetation dynamics and productivity in response to permafrost thaw and climate change in Arctic tundra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewitt, R. E.; Helene, G.; Taylor, D. L.; McGuire, A. D.; Mack, M. C.

2017-12-01

The release of permafrost-derived nitrogen (N) has the potential to fertilize tundra vegetation, modulating plant competition, stimulating productivity, and offsetting carbon losses from thawing permafrost. Dynamic rooting, mycorrhizal interactions, and coupling of N availability and root N uptake have been identified as gaps in ecosystem models. As a first step towards understanding whether Arctic plants can access deep permafrost-derived N, we characterized rooting profiles and quantified acquisition of 15N tracer applied at the permafrost boundary by moist acidic tundra plants subjected to almost three decades of warming at Toolik Lake, Alaska. In the ambient control plots the vegetation biomass is distributed between five plant functional types (PFTs): sedges, evergreen and deciduous shrubs, mosses and in lower abundance, forbs. The warming treatment has resulted in the increase of deciduous shrub biomass and the loss of sedges, evergreen shrubs, and mosses. We harvested roots by depth increment down to the top of the permafrost. Roots were classified by size class and PFT. The average thaw depth in the warmed plots was 58.3 cm ± 6.4 S.E., close to 18 cm deeper than the average thaw depth in the ambient plots (40.8 cm ± 1.8 S.E.). Across treatments the deepest rooting species was Rubus chamaemorus (ambient 40.8 cm ± 1.8 S.E., warmed 50.3 cm ± 9.8 S.E.), a non-mycorrhizal forb, followed by Eriophorum vaginatum, a non-mycorrhizal sedge. Ectomycorrhizal deciduous and ericoid mycorrhizal evergreen shrubs were rooted at more shallow depths. Deeply rooted non-mycorrhizal species had the greatest uptake of 15N tracer within 24 hours across treatments. Tracer uptake was greatest for roots of E. vaginatum in ambient plots and R. chamaemorus in warmed plots. Root profiles were integrated into a process-based ecosystem model coupled with a dynamic vegetation model. Functions modeling dynamic rooting profile relative to thaw depth were implemented for each PFT. The goal of the model simulations is to evaluate the relative effect of deep N acquisition and dynamic rooting profile on site level vegetation productivity. This modeling exercise will contribute to more accurate predictions of vegetation change in the Arctic modulated by belowground plant traits and changing soil resources with warming.

Warm-up strategy and high-intensity endurance performance in trained cyclists.

PubMed

Christensen, Peter M; Bangsbo, Jens

2015-04-01

To evaluate the influence of warm-up exercise intensity and subsequent recovery on intense endurance performance, selected blood variables, and the oxygen-uptake (VO2) response. Twelve highly trained male cyclists (VO2max 72.4 ± 8.0 mL · min-1 · kg-1, incremental-test peak power output (iPPO) 432 ± 31 W; mean ± SD) performed 3 warm-up strategies lasting 20 min before a 4-min maximal-performance test (PT). Strategies consisted of moderate-intensity exercise (50%iPPO) followed by 6 min of recovery (MOD6) or progressive high-intensity exercise (10-100%iPPO and 2 × 20-s sprints) followed by recovery for 6 min (HI6) or 20 min (HI20). Before PT venous pH was lower (P < .001) in HI6 (7.27 ± 0.05) than in HI20 (7.34 ± 0.04) and MOD6 (7.35 ± 0.03). At the same time, differences (P < .001) existed for venous lactate in HI6 (8.2 ± 2.0 mmol/L), HI20 (5.1 ± 1.7 mmol/L), and MOD6 (1.4 ± 0.4 mmol/L), as well as for venous bicarbonate in HI6 (19.3 ± 2.6 mmol/L), HI20 (22.6 ± 2.3 mmol/L), and MOD6 (26.0 ± 1.4 mmol/L). Mean power in PT in HI6 (402 ± 38 W) tended to be lower (P = .11) than in HI20 (409 ± 34 W) and was lower (P = .007) than in MOD6 (416 ± 32 W). Total VO2 (15-120 s in PT) was higher in HI6 (8.18 ± 0.86 L) than in HI20 (7.85 ± 0.82 L, P = .008) and MOD6 (7.90 ± 0.74 L, P = .012). Warm-up exercise including race-pace and sprint intervals combined with short recovery can reduce subsequent performance in a 4-min maximal test in highly trained cyclists. Thus, a reduced time at high exercise intensity, a reduced intensity in the warm-up, or an extension of the recovery period after an intense warm-up is advocated.

Meso-Scale and Small-Scale Interactions on Global Climate. Volume II. Radiation Transport Effects on Global Climate

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-02-28

max this peak , which varies substantially over Az = a A0 = 1 , r max we pick an angular increment Ae = T5— o 2 a max 2-72...22°, as into the main diffraction peak . This effect if. en- tirely missed by an equi"alent sphere model. The error incurred by assumption (7...minimize the sum of squares, we pick Q so that this expression is as negative as possible (if it is never negative for 0 ^ 0 £ 1, we are already

NORTH ELEVATION OF GOLD HILL MILL, LOOKING SOUTH. AT LEFT ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

NORTH ELEVATION OF GOLD HILL MILL, LOOKING SOUTH. AT LEFT EDGE IS THE SINGLE CYLINDER “HOT SHOT” ENGINE THAT PROVIDED POWER FOR THE MILL. JUST IN FRONT OF IT IS AN ARRASTRA. AT CENTER IS THE BALL MILL AND SECONDARY ORE BIN. JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE BALL MILL IS A RAKE CLASSIFIER, AND TO THE RIGHT ARE THE CONCENTRATION TABLES. WARM SPRINGS CAMP IS IN THE DISTANCE. SEE CA-292-4 FOR IDENTICAL B&W NEGATIVE. - Gold Hill Mill, Warm Spring Canyon Road, Death Valley Junction, Inyo County, CA

The dynamics of food chains under climate change and nutrient enrichment.

PubMed

Binzer, Amrei; Guill, Christian; Brose, Ulrich; Rall, Björn C

2012-11-05

Warming has profound effects on biological rates such as metabolism, growth, feeding and death of organisms, eventually affecting their ability to survive. Using a nonlinear bioenergetic population-dynamic model that accounts for temperature and body-mass dependencies of biological rates, we analysed the individual and interactive effects of increasing temperature and nutrient enrichment on the dynamics of a three-species food chain. At low temperatures, warming counteracts the destabilizing effects of enrichment by both bottom-up (via the carrying capacity) and top-down (via biological rates) mechanisms. Together with increasing consumer body masses, warming increases the system tolerance to fertilization. Simultaneously, warming increases the risk of starvation for large species in low-fertility systems. This effect can be counteracted by increased fertilization. In combination, therefore, two main drivers of global change and biodiversity loss can have positive and negative effects on food chain stability. Our model incorporates the most recent empirical data and may thus be used as the basis for more complex forecasting models incorporating food-web structure.

The relationship between Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, W.; Fedorov, A. V.

2017-12-01

A recent study (Sevellec, Fedorov, Liu 2017, Nature Climate Change) has suggested that Arctic sea ice decline can lead to a slow-down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we build on this previous work and explore the relationship between Arctic sea ice and the AMOC in climate models. We find that the current Arctic sea ice decline can contribute about 40% to the AMOC weakening over the next 60 years. This effect is related to the warming and freshening of the upper ocean in the Arctic, and the subsequent spread of generated buoyancy anomalies downstream where they affect the North Atlantic deep convection sites and hence the AMOC on multi-decadal timescales. The weakening of the AMOC and its poleward heat transport, in turn, sustains the "Warming Hole" - a region in the North Atlantic with anomalously weak (or even negative) warming trends. We discuss the key factors that control this robust AMOC response to changes in Arctic sea ice.

Decadal warming causes a consistent and persistent shift from heterotrophic to autotrophic respiration in contrasting permafrost ecosystems.

PubMed

Hicks Pries, Caitlin E; van Logtestijn, Richard S P; Schuur, Edward A G; Natali, Susan M; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Aerts, Rien; Dorrepaal, Ellen

2015-12-01

Soil carbon in permafrost ecosystems has the potential to become a major positive feedback to climate change if permafrost thaw increases heterotrophic decomposition. However, warming can also stimulate autotrophic production leading to increased ecosystem carbon storage-a negative climate change feedback. Few studies partitioning ecosystem respiration examine decadal warming effects or compare responses among ecosystems. Here, we first examined how 11 years of warming during different seasons affected autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration in a bryophyte-dominated peatland in Abisko, Sweden. We used natural abundance radiocarbon to partition ecosystem respiration into autotrophic respiration, associated with production, and heterotrophic decomposition. Summertime warming decreased the age of carbon respired by the ecosystem due to increased proportional contributions from autotrophic and young soil respiration and decreased proportional contributions from old soil. Summertime warming's large effect was due to not only warmer air temperatures during the growing season, but also to warmer deep soils year-round. Second, we compared ecosystem respiration responses between two contrasting ecosystems, the Abisko peatland and a tussock-dominated tundra in Healy, Alaska. Each ecosystem had two different timescales of warming (<5 years and over a decade). Despite the Abisko peatland having greater ecosystem respiration and larger contributions from heterotrophic respiration than the Healy tundra, both systems responded consistently to short- and long-term warming with increased respiration, increased autotrophic contributions to ecosystem respiration, and increased ratios of autotrophic to heterotrophic respiration. We did not detect an increase in old soil carbon losses with warming at either site. If increased autotrophic respiration is balanced by increased primary production, as is the case in the Healy tundra, warming will not cause these ecosystems to become growing season carbon sources. Warming instead causes a persistent shift from heterotrophic to more autotrophic control of the growing season carbon cycle in these carbon-rich permafrost ecosystems. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Above- and belowground linkages in Sphagnum peatland: climate warming affects plant-microbial interactions.

PubMed

Jassey, Vincent E J; Chiapusio, Geneviève; Binet, Philippe; Buttler, Alexandre; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima; Delarue, Frédéric; Bernard, Nadine; Mitchell, Edward A D; Toussaint, Marie-Laure; Francez, André-Jean; Gilbert, Daniel

2013-03-01

Peatlands contain approximately one third of all soil organic carbon (SOC). Warming can alter above- and belowground linkages that regulate soil organic carbon dynamics and C-balance in peatlands. Here we examine the multiyear impact of in situ experimental warming on the microbial food web, vegetation, and their feedbacks with soil chemistry. We provide evidence of both positive and negative impacts of warming on specific microbial functional groups, leading to destabilization of the microbial food web. We observed a strong reduction (70%) in the biomass of top-predators (testate amoebae) in warmed plots. Such a loss caused a shortening of microbial food chains, which in turn stimulated microbial activity, leading to slight increases in levels of nutrients and labile C in water. We further show that warming altered the regulatory role of Sphagnum-polyphenols on microbial community structure with a potential inhibition of top predators. In addition, warming caused a decrease in Sphagnum cover and an increase in vascular plant cover. Using structural equation modelling, we show that changes in the microbial food web affected the relationships between plants, soil water chemistry, and microbial communities. These results suggest that warming will destabilize C and nutrient recycling of peatlands via changes in above- and belowground linkages, and therefore, the microbial food web associated with mosses will feedback positively to global warming by destabilizing the carbon cycle. This study confirms that microbial food webs thus constitute a key element in the functioning of peatland ecosystems. Their study can help understand how mosses, as ecosystem engineers, tightly regulate biogeochemical cycling and climate feedback in peatlands. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injections: More research needed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robock, Alan

2016-12-01

Research on albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injection inspired by Paul Crutzen's paper a decade ago has made clear that it may present serious risks and concerns as well as benefits if used to address the global warming problem. While volcanic eruptions were suggested as innocuous examples of stratospheric aerosols cooling the planet, the volcano analog also argues against stratospheric geoengineering because of ozone depletion and regional hydrologic responses. Continuous injection of SO2 into the lower stratosphere would reduce global warming and some of its negative impacts, and would increasing the uptake of CO2 by plants, but research in the past decade has pointed out a number of potential negative impacts of stratospheric geoengineering. More research is needed to better quantify the potential benefits and risks so that if society is tempted to implement geoengineering in the future it will be able to make an informed decision.

Can we bet on negative emissions to achieve the 2°C target even under strong carbon cycle feedbacks?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, K.; Yamagata, Y.; Yokohata, T.; Emori, S.; Hanaoka, T.

2015-12-01

Negative emission technologies such as Bioenergy with Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (BioCCS) play an ever more crucial role in meeting the 2°C stabilization target. However, such technologies are currently at their infancy and their future penetrations may fall short of the scale required to stabilize the warming. Furthermore, the overshoot in the mid-century prior to a full realization of negative emissions would give rise to a risk because such a temporal but excessive warming above 2°C might amplify itself by strengthening climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. It has not been extensively assessed yet how carbon cycle feedbacks might play out during the overshoot in the context of negative emissions. This study explores how 2°C stabilization pathways, in particular those which undergo overshoot, can be influenced by carbon cycle feedbacks and asks their climatic and economic consequences. We compute 2°C stabilization emissions scenarios under a cost-effectiveness principle, in which the total abatement costs are minimized such that the global warming is capped at 2°C. We employ a reduced-complexity model, the Aggregated Carbon Cycle, Atmospheric Chemistry, and Climate model (ACC2), which comprises a box model of the global carbon cycle, simple parameterizations of the atmospheric chemistry, and a land-ocean energy balance model. The total abatement costs are estimated from the marginal abatement cost functions for CO2, CH4, N2O, and BC.Our preliminary results show that, if carbon cycle feedbacks turn out to be stronger than what is known today, it would incur substantial abatement costs to keep up with the 2°C stabilization goal. Our results also suggest that it would be less expensive in the long run to plan for a 2°C stabilization pathway by considering strong carbon cycle feedbacks because it would cost more if we correct the emission pathway in the mid-century to adjust for unexpectedly large carbon cycle feedbacks during overshoot. Furthermore, our tentative results point to a key policy message: do not rely on negative emissions to achieve the 2°C target. It would make more sense to gear climate mitigation actions toward the stabilization target without betting on negative emissions because negative emissions might create large overshoot in case of strong feedbacks.

Effects of short-term warming and nitrogen addition on the quantity and quality of dissolved organic matter in a subtropical Cunninghamia lanceolata plantation.

PubMed

Yuan, Xiaochun; Si, Youtao; Lin, Weisheng; Yang, Jingqing; Wang, Zheng; Zhang, Qiufang; Qian, Wei; Chen, Yuehmin; Yang, Yusheng

2018-01-01

Increasing temperature and nitrogen (N) deposition are two large-scale changes projected to occur over the coming decades. The effects of these changes on dissolved organic matter (DOM) are largely unknown. This study aimed to assess the effects of warming and N addition on the quantity and quality of DOM from a subtropical Cunninghamia lanceolata plantation. Between 2014 and 2016, soil solutions were collected from 0-15, 15-30, and 30-60 cm depths by using a negative pressure sampling method. The quantity and quality of DOM were measured under six different treatments. The spectra showed that the DOM of the forest soil solution mainly consisted of aromatic protein-like components, microbial degradation products, and negligible amounts of humic-like substances. Warming, N addition, and warming + N addition significantly inhibited the concentration of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the surface (0-15 cm) soil solution. Our results suggested that warming reduced the amount of DOM originating from microbes. The decrease in protein and carboxylic acid contents was mostly attributed to the reduction of DOC following N addition. The warming + N addition treatment showed an interactive effect rather than an additive effect. Thus, short-term warming and warming + N addition decreased the quantity of DOM and facilitated the migration of nutrients to deeper soils. Further, N addition increased the complexity of the DOM structure. Hence, the loss of soil nutrients and the rational application of N need to be considered in order to prevent the accumulation of N compounds in soil.

Shifts in community size structure drive temperature invariance of secondary production in a stream-warming experiment.

PubMed

Nelson, Daniel; Benstead, Jonathan P; Huryn, Alexander D; Cross, Wyatt F; Hood, James M; Johnson, Philip W; Junker, James R; Gíslason, Gísli M; Ólafsson, Jón S

2017-07-01

A central question at the interface of food-web and climate change research is how secondary production, or the formation of heterotroph biomass over time, will respond to rising temperatures. The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) hypothesizes the temperature-invariance of secondary production, driven by matched and opposed forces that reduce biomass of heterotrophs while increasing their biomass turnover rate (production : biomass, or P:B) with warming. To test this prediction at the whole community level, we used a geothermal heat exchanger to experimentally warm a stream in southwest Iceland by 3.8°C for two years. We quantified invertebrate community biomass, production, and P : B in the experimental stream and a reference stream for one year prior to warming and two years during warming. As predicted, warming had a neutral effect on community production, but this result was not driven by opposing effects on community biomass and P:B. Instead, warming had a positive effect on both the biomass and production of larger-bodied, slower-growing taxa (e.g., larval black flies, dipteran predators, snails) and a negative effect on small-bodied taxa with relatively high growth rates (e.g., ostracods, larval chironomids). We attribute these divergent responses to differences in thermal preference between small- vs. large-bodied taxa. Although metabolic demand vs. resource supply must ultimately constrain community production, our results highlight the potential for idiosyncratic community responses to warming, driven by variation in thermal preference and body size within regional species pools. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Effects of short-term warming and nitrogen addition on the quantity and quality of dissolved organic matter in a subtropical Cunninghamia lanceolata plantation

PubMed Central

Yuan, Xiaochun; Si, Youtao; Lin, Weisheng; Yang, Jingqing; Wang, Zheng; Zhang, Qiufang; Qian, Wei; Yang, Yusheng

2018-01-01

Increasing temperature and nitrogen (N) deposition are two large-scale changes projected to occur over the coming decades. The effects of these changes on dissolved organic matter (DOM) are largely unknown. This study aimed to assess the effects of warming and N addition on the quantity and quality of DOM from a subtropical Cunninghamia lanceolata plantation. Between 2014 and 2016, soil solutions were collected from 0–15, 15–30, and 30–60 cm depths by using a negative pressure sampling method. The quantity and quality of DOM were measured under six different treatments. The spectra showed that the DOM of the forest soil solution mainly consisted of aromatic protein-like components, microbial degradation products, and negligible amounts of humic-like substances. Warming, N addition, and warming + N addition significantly inhibited the concentration of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the surface (0–15 cm) soil solution. Our results suggested that warming reduced the amount of DOM originating from microbes. The decrease in protein and carboxylic acid contents was mostly attributed to the reduction of DOC following N addition. The warming + N addition treatment showed an interactive effect rather than an additive effect. Thus, short-term warming and warming + N addition decreased the quantity of DOM and facilitated the migration of nutrients to deeper soils. Further, N addition increased the complexity of the DOM structure. Hence, the loss of soil nutrients and the rational application of N need to be considered in order to prevent the accumulation of N compounds in soil. PMID:29360853

Warm-up for Sprint Swimming: Race-Pace or Aerobic Stimulation? A Randomized Study.

PubMed

Neiva, Henrique P; Marques, Mário C; Barbosa, Tiago M; Izquierdo, Mikel; Viana, João L; Teixeira, Ana M; Marinho, Daniel A

2017-09-01

Neiva, HP, Marques, MC, Barbosa, TM, Izquierdo, M, Viana, JL, Teixeira, AM, and Marinho, DA. Warm-up for sprint swimming: race-pace or aerobic stimulation? A randomized study. J Strength Cond Res 31(9): 2423-2431, 2017-The aim of this study was to compare the effects of 2 different warm-up intensities on 100-m swimming performance in a randomized controlled trial. Thirteen competitive swimmers performed two 100-m freestyle time-trials on separate days after either control or experimental warm-up in a randomized design. The control warm-up included a typical race-pace set (4 × 25 m), whereas the experimental warm-up included an aerobic set (8 × 50 m at 98-102% of critical velocity). Cortisol, testosterone, blood lactate ([La]), oxygen uptake (V[Combining Dot Above]O2), heart rate, core (Tcore and Tcorenet) and tympanic temperatures, and rating of perceived exertion (RPE) were monitored. Stroke length (SL), stroke frequency (SF), stroke index (SI), and propelling efficiency (ηp) were assessed for each 50-m lap. We found that V[Combining Dot Above]O2, heart rate, and Tcorenet were higher after experimental warm-up (d > 0.73), but only the positive effect for Tcorenet was maintained until the trial. Performance was not different between conditions (d = 0.07). Experimental warm-up was found to slow SF (mean change ±90% CL = 2.06 ± 1.48%) and increase SL (1.65 ± 1.40%) and ηp (1.87 ± 1.33%) in the first lap. After the time-trials, this warm-up had a positive effect on Tcorenet (d = 0.69) and a negative effect on [La] (d = 0.56). Although the warm-ups had similar outcomes in the 100-m freestyle, performance was achieved through different biomechanical strategies. Stroke length and efficiency were higher in the first lap after the experimental warm-up, whereas SF was higher after control warm-up. Physiological adaptations were observed mainly through an increased Tcore after experimental warm-up. In this condition, the lower [La] after the trial suggests lower dependency on anaerobic metabolism.

The Relationship of Parental Warm Responsiveness and Negativity to Emerging Behavior Problems Following Traumatic Brain Injury in Young Children

PubMed Central

Wade, Shari L.; Cassedy, Amy; Walz, Nicolay C.; Taylor, H. Gerry; Stancin, Terry; Yeates, Keith Owen

2013-01-01

Parenting behaviors play a critical role in the child's behavioral development, particularly for children with neurological deficits. This study examined the relationship of parental warm responsiveness and negativity to changes in behavior following traumatic brain injury (TBI) in young children relative to an age-matched cohort of children with orthopedic injuries (OI). It was hypothesized that responsive parenting would buffer the adverse effects of TBI on child behavior, whereas parental negativity would exacerbate these effects. Children, ages 3–7 years, hospitalized for TBI (n = 80) or OI (n = 113), were seen acutely and again 6 months later. Parent–child dyads were videotaped during free play. Parents completed behavior ratings (Child Behavior Checklist; T. M. Achenbach & L. A. Rescorla, 2001) at both visits, with baseline ratings reflecting preinjury behavior. Hypotheses were tested using multiple regression, with preinjury behavior ratings, race, income, child IQ, family functioning, and acute parental distress serving as covariates. Parental responsiveness and negativity had stronger associations with emerging externalizing behaviors and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder symptoms among children with severe TBI. Findings suggest that parenting quality may facilitate or impede behavioral recovery following early TBI. Interventions that increase positive parenting may partially ameliorate emerging behavior problems. PMID:21244154

Objective assessment of chromatic and achromatic pattern adaptation reveals the temporal response properties of different visual pathways.

PubMed

Robson, Anthony G; Kulikowski, Janus J

2012-11-01

The aim was to investigate the temporal response properties of magnocellular, parvocellular, and koniocellular visual pathways using increment/decrement changes in contrast to elicit visual evoked potentials (VEPs). Static achromatic and isoluminant chromatic gratings were generated on a monitor. Chromatic gratings were modulated along red/green (R/G) or subject-specific tritanopic confusion axes, established using a minimum distinct border criterion. Isoluminance was determined using minimum flicker photometry. Achromatic and chromatic VEPs were recorded to contrast increments and decrements of 0.1 or 0.2 superimposed on the static gratings (masking contrast 0-0.6). Achromatic increment/decrement changes in contrast evoked a percept of apparent motion when the spatial frequency was low; VEPs to such stimuli were positive in polarity and largely unaffected by high levels of static contrast, consistent with transient response mechanisms. VEPs to finer achromatic gratings showed marked attenuation as static contrast was increased. Chromatic VEPs to R/G or tritan chromatic contrast increments were of negative polarity and showed progressive attenuation as static contrast was increased, in keeping with increasing desensitization of the sustained responses of the color-opponent visual pathways. Chromatic contrast decrement VEPs were of positive polarity and less sensitive to pattern adaptation. The relative contribution of sustained/transient mechanisms to achromatic processing is spatial frequency dependent. Chromatic contrast increment VEPs reflect the sustained temporal response properties of parvocellular and koniocellular pathways. Cortical VEPs can provide an objective measure of pattern adaptation and can be used to probe the temporal response characteristics of different visual pathways.

Pulp Chamber Heating: An In Vitro Study Evaluating Different Light Sources and Resin Composite Layers.

PubMed

Andreatta, Lígia Maria Lima; Furuse, Adilson Yoshio; Prakki, Anuradha; Bombonatti, Juliana Fraga Soares; Mondelli, Rafael Francisco Lia

2016-01-01

The aim of the present in vitro study was to evaluate the temperature variation inside the pulp chamber during light-activation of the adhesive and resin composite layers with different light sources. Cavities measuring 8x10 mm were prepared on the buccal surface of bovine incisors, leaving a remaining dentin thickness of 1 mm. Specimens were placed in a 37±1 °C water bath to standardize the temperature. The temperature in the pulp chamber was measured every 10 s during 40 s of light activation of the adhesive system (SBMP-3M/ESPE) and in the three consecutive 1-mm-thick layers of resin composite (Z250-3M/ESPE). Three light source devices were evaluated: Elipar 2500 (QTH), LD Max (LED low irradiance) and VALO (LED high irradiance). The results were submitted to one-way ANOVA with repeated measures and Tukey's test, both with p<0.001. The exothermic reaction warming was observed in the Z250 increments, but not in the SBMP. The high irradiance LED showed a higher temperature average (42.7±1.56 °C), followed by the quartz-tungsten-halogen light (40.6±0.67 °C) and the lower irradiance LED (37.8±0.12 °C). Higher temperature increases were observed with the adhesive and the first resin composite increment light-activation, regardless of the employed light source. From the second increment of Z250, the restorative material acted as a dispersive structure of heat, reducing temperature increases. Regardless the light source and restorative step, the temperature increased with the irradiation time. It may be concluded that the light source, irradiation time and resin composite thickness interfered in the temperature variation inside the pulp chamber.

Deep-sea Benthic Foraminifera in the SE Atlantic across Eocene Hyperthermal Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, E.

2016-12-01

Short-term episodes of global warming (hyperthermal events) were superimposed on the warming trend into the Early Eocene Climate Optimum (EECO). The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma) was the most extreme, followed by Eocene Thermal Maximum-2 and -3 (ETM2: 1.8 myr, ETM3: 3.1 myr post-PETM). Hyperthermals are characterized by negative carbon isotope excursions (CIEs, emission of isotopically light carbon in the ocean-atmosphere), negative oxygen isotope excursions (global warming) and carbonate dissolution (ocean acidification). Sensitivity of biota to environmental changes due to carbon emissions can be evaluated by studying their response to hyperthermals of different magnitude. Deep-sea benthic foraminiferal records across PETM, ETM2 and -3 are available for Site 1262 (3600 m) and 1263 (1500m) on SE Atlantic Walvis Ridge. Benthic foraminifera (carbonate and agglutinated) are absent in the carbonate-free PETM clay-layer (Site 1262: 65 kyr; Site1263: 10 kyr). Deep-sea benthic foraminifera suffered extinction and diversity loss at the start of the PETM, as they did globally, with diversity recovering only partially. Stable isotope records show a larger PETM-CIE and amount of warming at Site 1263 than global average (McCarren et al., 2008), and warming was more pronounced at Site 1263 than at 1262 during ETM2 (Jennions et al., 2015) and ETM3 (Roehl et al., 2005). During ETM2 and -3, carbonate dissolution affected the sites, both remaining between CCD and lysocline. Assemblages were more severely affected (larger drop in benthic foraminiferal accumulation rates, BFAR) at the shallower site, opposite to expected if caused mainly by carbonate corrosivity. The large decrease in BFAR indicates a decline in food arrival at the sea floor, more pronounced at the shallower site, as supported by changes in relative and absolute abundance of species, and more pronounced at ETM2 than at ETM3. Greater warming at intermediate depths could have been caused by ocean circulation changes, with the greater warming more severely affecting metabolic rates of benthic foraminifera, thus patterns of effective food supply, species and diversity change. Roehl et al. 2005 GSA Abstr. 37: 264. McCarren et al. 2008 G3, 9 (10): Q10008. Jennions et al. 2015 Paleoceanogr. 30: 1059-1077

Temperature Data Shows Warming in 2001

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

TThe figure above depicts how much air temperatures near the Earth's surface changed relative to the global mean temperature from 1951 to 1980. NASA researchers used maps of urban areas derived from city lights data to account for the 'heat island' effect of cities. The red and orange colors show that temperatures are warmer in most regions of the world when compared to the 1951 to 1980 'normal' temperatures. Warming around the world has been widespread, but it is not present everywhere. The largest warming is in Northern Canada, Alaska and Siberia, as indicated by the deeper red colors. The lower 48 United States have become warmer recently, but only enough to make the temperatures comparable to what they were in the 1930s. The scale on the bottom of these temperature anomaly images represent degrees in Celsius. The negative numbers represent cooling and the positive numbers depict warming. Overall, the air temperature near the Earth's surface has warmed by 1oF (0.6oC) globally, on average, over the last century. For more information and additional images, read Satellites Shed Light on a Warmer World. Image courtesy Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS).

Cost-effectiveness of the 21-gene recurrence score assay in the context of multifactorial decision making to guide chemotherapy for early-stage breast cancer.

PubMed

Reed, Shelby D; Dinan, Michaela A; Schulman, Kevin A; Lyman, Gary H

2013-03-01

New evidence is available regarding the utility of the 21-gene recurrence score assay in guiding chemotherapy use for node-negative, estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer. We applied this evidence in a decision-analytic model to re-evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the assay. We cross-classified patients by clinicopathologic characteristics from the Adjuvant! risk index and by recurrence score risk group. For non-recurrence score-guided treatment, we assumed patients receiving hormonal therapy alone had low-risk characteristics and patients receiving chemotherapy and hormonal therapy had higher-risk characteristics. For recurrence score-guided treatment, we assigned chemotherapy probabilities conditional on recurrence score risk group and clinicopathologic characteristics. An estimated 40.4% of patients in the recurrence score-guided strategy and 47.3% in the non-recurrence score-guided strategy were expected to receive chemotherapy. The incremental gain in quality-adjusted life-years was 0.16 (95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.28) with the recurrence score-guided strategy. Lifetime medical costs to the health system were $2,692 ($1,546-$3,821) higher with the recurrence score-guided strategy, for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $16,677/quality-adjusted life-year ($7,613-$37,219). From a societal perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness was $10,788/quality-adjusted life-year ($6,840-$30,265). The findings provide supportive evidence for the economic value of the 21-gene recurrence score assay in node-negative, estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer.

Effect of Measured Welding Residual Stresses on Crack Growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hampton, Roy W.; Nelson, Drew; Doty, Laura W. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

Welding residual stresses in thin plate A516-70 steel and 2219-T87 aluminum butt weldments were measured by the strain-gage hole drilling and X-ray diffraction methods. The residual stress data were used to construct 3D strain fields which were modeled as thermally induced strains. These 3D strain fields were then analyzed with the WARP31) FEM fracture analysis code in order to predict their effect on fatigue and on fracture. For analyses of fatigue crack advance and subsequent verification testing, fatigue crack growth increments were simulated by successive saw-cuts and incremental loading to generate, as a function of crack length, effects on crack growth of the interaction between residual stresses and load induced stresses. The specimen experimental response was characterized and compared to the WARM linear elastic and elastic-plastic fracture mechanics analysis predictions. To perform the fracture analysis, the plate material's crack tearing resistance was determined by tests of thin plate M(T) specimens. Fracture analyses of these specimen were performed using WARP31D to determine the critical Crack Tip Opening Angle [CTOA] of each material. These critical CTOA values were used to predict crack tearing and fracture in the weldments. To verify the fracture predictions, weldment M(T) specimen were tested in monotonic loading to fracture while characterizing the fracture process.

Climatic Changes in the East-European Forest-Steppe and Effects on Scots Pine Productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matveev, S. M.; Chendev, Yu. G.; Lupo, A. R.; Hubbart, J. A.; Timashchuk, D. A.

2017-01-01

Climate change during the 20th and early 21st centuries in the transitional zone between forests and grasslands at the center of the East-European Plain (Voronezh oblast) was determined by examining climate trends and variability using tree ring radial increment data as representative of productivity. An increase in atmospheric moisture for the warm period of the year (May-September) since 1890s, and mean annual temperatures since the 1950s was identified. During the same time period, there was a marked increase in amplitude of the annual variations for temperature and precipitation. Study results revealed trends, variability in the climatic indices, and corresponding radial wood increment for the regional stands of Pinus sylvestris L. These fluctuations are consistent with 10-12-years Schwabe-Wolf, 22-years Hale, and the 32-36-years Bruckner Solar Cycles. There was an additional relationship found between high-frequency (short-period) climate fluctuations, lasting for about three years, and 70-90-years fluctuations of the moisture regime in the study region corresponding to longer cycles. The results of this study can help guide management decisions in the study region and elsewhere, especially where climate change induced alterations to the state and productivity of forest ecosystems and associated natural resource commodities are of growing concern.

Designing a new cropping system for high productivity and sustainable water usage under climate change

PubMed Central

Meng, Qingfeng; Wang, Hongfei; Yan, Peng; Pan, Junxiao; Lu, Dianjun; Cui, Zhenling; Zhang, Fusuo; Chen, Xinping

2017-01-01

The food supply is being increasingly challenged by climate change and water scarcity. However, incremental changes in traditional cropping systems have achieved only limited success in meeting these multiple challenges. In this study, we applied a systematic approach, using model simulation and data from two groups of field studies conducted in the North China Plain, to develop a new cropping system that improves yield and uses water in a sustainable manner. Due to significant warming, we identified a double-maize (M-M; Zea mays L.) cropping system that replaced the traditional winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) –summer maize system. The M-M system improved yield by 14–31% compared with the conventionally managed wheat-maize system, and achieved similar yield compared with the incrementally adapted wheat-maize system with the optimized cultivars, planting dates, planting density and water management. More importantly, water usage was lower in the M-M system than in the wheat-maize system, and the rate of water usage was sustainable (net groundwater usage was ≤150 mm yr−1). Our study indicated that systematic assessment of adaptation and cropping system scale have great potential to address the multiple food supply challenges under changing climatic conditions. PMID:28155860

Patterns of growth dominance in thinned yellow-poplar stands in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA

Treesearch

Tara L. Keyser

2012-01-01

Growth dominance provides a quantitative description of the relative contribution of individual trees to stand growth. Positive dominance occurs when the largest individuals account for a greater proportion of growth period increment than total biomass. Conversely, negative dominance occurs when the smallest trees account for a greater proportion of the growth period...

Temperature, but not pH, compromises sea urchin fertilization and early development under near-future climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Byrne, Maria; Ho, Melanie; Selvakumaraswamy, Paulina; Nguyen, Hong D; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Davis, Andy R

2009-05-22

Global warming is causing ocean warming and acidification. The distribution of Heliocidaris erythrogramma coincides with the eastern Australia climate change hot spot, where disproportionate warming makes marine biota particularly vulnerable to climate change. In keeping with near-future climate change scenarios, we determined the interactive effects of warming and acidification on fertilization and development of this echinoid. Experimental treatments (20-26 degrees C, pH 7.6-8.2) were tested in all combinations for the 'business-as-usual' scenario, with 20 degrees C/pH 8.2 being ambient. Percentage of fertilization was high (>89%) across all treatments. There was no difference in percentage of normal development in any pH treatment. In elevated temperature conditions, +4 degrees C reduced cleavage by 40 per cent and +6 degrees C by a further 20 per cent. Normal gastrulation fell below 4 per cent at +6 degrees C. At 26 degrees C, development was impaired. As the first study of interactive effects of temperature and pH on sea urchin development, we confirm the thermotolerance and pH resilience of fertilization and embryogenesis within predicted climate change scenarios, with negative effects at upper limits of ocean warming. Our findings place single stressor studies in context and emphasize the need for experiments that address ocean warming and acidification concurrently. Although ocean acidification research has focused on impaired calcification, embryos may not reach the skeletogenic stage in a warm ocean.

Ectomycorrhizal fungal response to warming is linked to poor host performance at the boreal-temperate ecotone.

PubMed

Fernandez, Christopher W; Nguyen, Nhu H; Stefanski, Artur; Han, Ying; Hobbie, Sarah E; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Reich, Peter B; Kennedy, Peter G

2017-04-01

Rising temperatures associated with climate change have been shown to negatively affect the photosynthetic rates of boreal forest tree saplings at their southern range limits. To quantify the responses of ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungal communities associated with poorly performing hosts, we sampled the roots of Betula papyrifera and Abies balsamea saplings growing in the B4Warmed (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment. EM fungi on the root systems of both hosts were compared from ambient and +3.4 °C air and soil warmed plots at two sites in northern Minnesota. EM fungal communities were assessed with high-throughput sequencing along with measures of plant photosynthesis, soil temperature, moisture, and nitrogen. Warming selectively altered EM fungal community composition at both the phylum and genus levels, but had no significant effect on EM fungal operational taxonomic unit (OTU) diversity. Notably, warming strongly favored EM Ascomycetes and EM fungi with short-contact hyphal exploration types. Declining host photosynthetic rates were also significantly inversely correlated with EM Ascomycete and EM short-contact exploration type abundance, which may reflect a shift to less carbon demanding fungi due to lower photosynthetic capacity. Given the variation in EM host responses to warming, both within and between ecosystems, better understanding the link between host performance and EM fungal community structure will to clarify how climate change effects cascade belowground. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum triggered by Volcanism revealed by Mercury anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khozyem, Hassan; Adatte, Thierry; Mbabi Bitchong, André; Chevalier, Yoann; Keller, Gerta

2017-04-01

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 55.8±0.2 Ma) is marked by a global drop of 2-6‰ in 13C values and rapid warming of 4-5°C in tropical surface waters and 4-8°C in high latitudes. Climate warming persisted for several tens of thousands of years and resulted in rapid diversification in terrestrial mammals and marine planktic foraminifera. Deep-water bathyal benthic foraminifera suffered a mass extinction ( 40% species) but no significant extinctions occurred shallow shelf environments. Benthic extinctions are commonly explained as the effects of the initial stage of climate warming due to North Atlantic Volcanic Province volcanism (NAVP), which triggered methane release from ocean sediments causing global warming and ocean acidification. But the relationship between NAPV and the PETM events are not clearly demonstrated. Several studies [1-4] demonstrated the relationship between Hg anomalies in sediments and LIP activity associated with mass extinctions. We investigated the mercury (Hg) content of several sections located in deep bathyal (Zumaya, Trabakua, N-Spain) and outer shelf environments (Dababiya GSSP, Duwi, Egypt). At Zumaya the PETM is marked by a red clayey and marly interval poor in organic matter and coincident with a pronounced ∂13C negative shift. A comparable clay interval with low TOC content is also present in the Dababyia section in the lower part of the negative ∂13C shift, whereas the upper part of is enriched in TOC, reflecting increased productivity. A significant but unique Hg enrichment is observed at the onset of the PETM just below the carbone isotope shift in Spain as well as in Egypt. This increase, which is not correlated with clay or total organic carbon contents, suggests the Hg anomaly resulted from higher atmospheric Hg input into the marine realm, rather than organic matter scavenging and/or increased run-off. This Hg anomaly at the onset of the PETM provides the first direct evidence that volcanism played a crucial role in triggering the PETM events by initiating the warming that likely released methane gases that accelerated greenhouse warming and ocean acidification.

A warmer and drier climate in the northern sagebrush biome does not promote cheatgrass invasion or change its response to fire.

PubMed

Larson, Christian D; Lehnhoff, Erik A; Rew, Lisa J

2017-12-01

Dryland shrub communities have been degraded by a range of disturbances and now face additional stress from global climate change. The spring/summer growing season of the North American sagebrush biome is projected to become warmer and drier, which is expected to facilitate the expansion of the invasive annual grass Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) and alter its response to fire in the northern extent of the biome. We tested these predictions with a factorial experiment with two levels of burning (spring burn and none) and three climate treatments (warming, warming + drying, and control) that was repeated over 3 years in a Montana sagebrush steppe. We expected the climate treatments to make B. tectorum more competitive with the native perennial grass community, especially Pseudoroegneria spicata, and alter its response to fire. Experimental warming and warming + drying reduced B. tectorum cover, biomass, and fecundity, but there was no response to fire except for fecundity, which increased; the native grass community was the most significant factor that affected B. tectorum metrics. The experimental climate treatments also negatively affected P. spicata, total native grass cover, and community biodiversity, while fire negatively affected total native grass cover, particularly when climate conditions were warmer and drier. Our short-term results indicate that without sufficient antecedent moisture and a significant disruption to the native perennial grass community, a change in climate to a warmer and drier spring/summer growing season in the northern sagebrush biome will not facilitate B. tectorum invasion or alter its response to fire.

Climate-driven disparities among ecological interactions threaten kelp forest persistence.

PubMed

Provost, Euan J; Kelaher, Brendan P; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Russell, Bayden D; Connell, Sean D; Ghedini, Giulia; Gillanders, Bronwyn M; Figueira, WillIAM; Coleman, Melinda A

2017-01-01

The combination of ocean warming and acidification brings an uncertain future to kelp forests that occupy the warmest parts of their range. These forests are not only subject to the direct negative effects of ocean climate change, but also to a combination of unknown indirect effects associated with changing ecological landscapes. Here, we used mesocosm experiments to test the direct effects of ocean warming and acidification on kelp biomass and photosynthetic health, as well as climate-driven disparities in indirect effects involving key consumers (urchins and rock lobsters) and competitors (algal turf). Elevated water temperature directly reduced kelp biomass, while their turf-forming competitors expanded in response to ocean acidification and declining kelp canopy. Elevated temperatures also increased growth of urchins and, concurrently, the rate at which they thinned kelp canopy. Rock lobsters, which are renowned for keeping urchin populations in check, indirectly intensified negative pressures on kelp by reducing their consumption of urchins in response to elevated temperature. Overall, these results suggest that kelp forests situated towards the low-latitude margins of their distribution will need to adapt to ocean warming in order to persist in the future. What is less certain is how such adaptation in kelps can occur in the face of intensifying consumptive (via ocean warming) and competitive (via ocean acidification) pressures that affect key ecological interactions associated with their persistence. If such indirect effects counter adaptation to changing climate, they may erode the stability of kelp forests and increase the probability of regime shifts from complex habitat-forming species to more simple habitats dominated by algal turfs. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Voluntary dehydration and alliesthesia for water.

PubMed

Hubbard, R W; Sandick, B L; Matthew, W T; Francesconi, R P; Sampson, J B; Durkot, M J; Maller, O; Engell, D B

1984-09-01

The purpose of this experiment was to explore the complex relationship between fluid consumption and consumption factors (thirst, voluntary dehydration, water alliesthesia, palatability, work-rest cycle) during a simulated 14.5-km desert walk (treadmill, 1.34 m X s-1, 5% grade, 40 degrees C dry bulb/26 degrees C wet bulb, and wind speed of approximately 1.2 m X s-1). Twenty-nine subjects were tested (30 min X h-1, 6 h) on each of two nonconsecutive days. The subjects were randomly assigned to one of three groups: tap water (n = 8), iodine-treated tap water (n = 11), or iodine-treated flavored tap water (n = 10). The temperature of the water was 40 degrees C during one trial and 15 degrees C on the other. Mean sweat losses (6 h) varied between 1.4 kg (warm iodine-treated; 232 +/- 44 g X h-1) and 3.0 kg (cool iodine-treated flavored; 509 +/- 50 g X h-1). Warm drinks were consumed at a lower rate than cool drinks (negative and positive alliesthesia). This decreased consumption resulted in the highest percent body weight losses (2.8 and 3.2%). Cooling and flavoring effects on consumption were additive and increased the rate of intake by 120%. The apparent paradox between reduced consumption concomitant with severe dehydration and hyperthermia is attributed to negative alliesthesia for warm water rather than an apparent inadequacy of the thirst mechanism. The reluctance to drink warm iodine-treated water resulted in significant hyperthermia, dehydration, hypovolemia, and, in two cases, heat illness.

Flight Investigation to Determine the Effect of Jet Exhaust on Drag, Trim Characteristics, and Afterbody Pressures of a 0.125-Scale Rocket Model of the Mcdonnell F-101A Airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kennedy, Thomas L.

1956-01-01

A flight investigation was conducted to determine the effect of jet exhaust on the drag, trim characteristics, and afterbody pressures on a 0.125-scale rocket model of the McDonnell F-101A airplance. Power-off data were obtained over a Mach number range of 1.04 to 1.9 and power-on data were obtained at a Mach number of about 1.5. The data indicated that with power-on the change in external drag coefficient was within the data accuracy and there was a decrease in trim angle of attack of 1.27 degrees with a corresponding decrease of 0.07 in lift coefficient. Correspondingly, pressure coefficients on the side and bottom of the fuselage indicated a positive increment near the jet exit. As the distance downstream of the jet exit increased, the increment on the bottom of the fuselage increased, whereas the increments on the side decreased to a negative peak.

Superconducting analog-to-digital converter with a triple-junction reversible flip-flop bidirectional counter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, G.S.

1993-07-13

A high-performance superconducting analog-to-digital converter is described, comprising: a bidirectional binary counter having n stages of triple-junction reversible flip-flops connected together in a cascade arrangement from the least significant bit (LSB) to the most significant bit (MSB) where n is the number of bits of the digital output, each triple-junction reversible flip-flop including first, second and third shunted Josephson tunnel junctions and a superconducting inductor connected in a bridge circuit, the Josephson junctions and the inductor forming upper and lower portions of the flip-flop, each reversible flip-flop being a bistable logic circuit in which the direction of the circulating currentmore » determines the state of the circuit; and means for applying an analog input current to the bidirectional counter; wherein the bidirectional counter algebraically counts incremental changes in the analog input current, increasing the binary count for positive incremental changes in the analog current and decreasing the binary count for negative incremental changes in the current, and wherein the counter does not require a gate bias, thus minimizing power dissipation.« less

Disparate effects of global-change drivers on mountain conifer forests: warming-induced growth enhancement in young trees vs. CO2 fertilization in old trees from wet sites.

PubMed

Camarero, J Julio; Gazol, Antonio; Galván, Juan Diego; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Gutiérrez, Emilia

2015-02-01

Theory predicts that the postindustrial rise in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere (c(a)) should enhance tree growth either through a direct fertilization effect or indirectly by improving water use efficiency in dry areas. However, this hypothesis has received little support in cold-limited and subalpine forests where positive growth responses to either rising ca or warmer temperatures are still under debate. In this study, we address this issue by analyzing an extensive dendrochronological network of high-elevation Pinus uncinata forests in Spain (28 sites, 544 trees) encompassing the whole biogeographical extent of the species. We determine if the basal area increment (BAI) trends are linked to climate warming and increased c(a) by focusing on region- and age-dependent responses. The largest improvement in BAI over the past six centuries occurred during the last 150 years affecting young trees and being driven by recent warming. Indeed, most studied regions and age classes presented BAI patterns mainly controlled by temperature trends, while growing-season precipitation was only relevant in the driest sites. Growth enhancement was linked to rising ca in mature (151-300 year-old trees) and old-mature trees (301-450 year-old trees) from the wettest sites only. This finding implies that any potential fertilization effect of elevated c(a) on forest growth is contingent on tree features that vary with ontogeny and it depends on site conditions (for instance water availability). Furthermore, we found widespread growth decline in drought-prone sites probably indicating that the rise in ca did not compensate for the reduction in water availability. Thus, warming-triggered drought stress may become a more important direct driver of growth than rising ca in similar subalpine forests. We argue that broad approaches in biogeographical and temporal terms are required to adequately evaluate any effect of rising c(a) on forest growth. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effect of a prior intermittent run at vVO2max on oxygen kinetics during an all-out severe run in humans.

PubMed

Billat, V L; Bocquet, V; Slawinski, J; Laffite, L; Demarle, A; Chassaing, P; Koralsztein, J P

2000-09-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of prior intermittent running at VO2max on oxygen kinetics during a continuous severe intensity run and the time spent at VO2max. Eight long-distance runners performed three maximal tests on a synthetic track (400 m) whilst breathing through the COSMED K4 portable telemetric metabolic analyser: i) an incremental test which determined velocity at the lactate threshold (vLT), VO2max and velocity associated with VO2max (vVO2max), ii) a continuous severe intensity run at vLT+50% (vdelta50) of the difference between vLT and vVO2max (91.3+/-1.6% VO2max)preceded by a light continuous 20 minute run at 50% of vVO2max (light warm-up), iii) the same continuous severe intensity run at vdelta50 with a prior interval training exercise (hard warm-up) of repeated hard running bouts performed at 100% of vVO2max and light running at 50% of vVO2max (of 30 seconds each) performed until exhaustion (on average 19+/-5 min with 19+/-5 interval repetitions). This hard warm-up speeded the VO2 kinetics: the time constant was reduced by 45% (28+/-7 sec vs 51+/-37 sec) and the slow component of VO2 (deltaVO2 6-3 min) was deleted (-143+/-271 ml x min(-1) vs 291+/-153 ml x min(-1)). In conclusion, despite a significantly lower total run time at vdelta50 (6 min 19+/-0) min 17 vs 8 min 20+/-1 min 45, p=0.02) after the intermittent warm-up at VO2max, the time spent specifically at VO2max in the severe continuous run at vdelta50 was not significantly different.

Demographic responses to warming: reproductive maturity and sex influence vulnerability in an octocoral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arizmendi-Mejía, Rosana; Ledoux, Jean-Baptiste; Civit, Sergi; Antunes, Agostinho; Thanopoulou, Zoi; Garrabou, Joaquim; Linares, Cristina

2015-12-01

Ocean warming, caused by climate change, is critically impacting marine coastal ecosystems. Benthic organisms, such as anthozoans, are increasingly submitted to high temperatures that cause massive mortalities in tropical and temperate seas. To broaden our understanding of their response to thermal stress, we tested the putative role of reproductive maturity and sex in the susceptibility of the Mediterranean red gorgonian, Paramuricea clavata, to high temperatures. We experimentally compared the response to thermal stress of sexually immature (i.e., juveniles) versus mature individuals (i.e., adults), and of males versus females. Colonies' response was firstly assessed by measuring the percentage of tissue area exhibiting necrosis. Then, the reproductive output (i.e., fertility, size, and number of gonads) of both sexes was characterized. When compared to juveniles, adults showed a significantly higher percentage of necrosis, suggesting that during the reproductive period they are more vulnerable to high temperatures. Males and females showed a similar percentage of tissue damage and a significant decrease in their reproductive output. However, females' reproduction was more impacted, suggesting that females are more susceptible to thermal stress than males. A differential energy investment in reproduction may be the underlying cause of the observed responses. Adults invest a large proportion of their energy budget in reproduction; hence, they have fewer resources available to cope with stress, compared to juveniles. A similar situation seems to apply to females, with respect to males. Considering the current ocean-warming trend, our results imply that the long-term viability of shallow populations of long-lived anthozoans may be jeopardized in the future. This study reveals potential demographic consequences of warming that go beyond its associated increment of mortality rates. Given the important ecological role of many anthozoan species, these results can help better predict the future effects of climate change on coastal ecosystems.

Forest phenology and a warmer climate - Growing season extension in relation to climatic provenance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gunderson, Carla A; Edwards, Nelson T; Walker, Ashley V

2012-01-01

Predicting forest responses to warming climates relies on assumptions about niche and temperature sensitivity that remain largely untested. Observational studies have related current and historical temperatures to phenological shifts, but experimental evidence is sparse, particularly for autumn responses. A five-year field experiment exposed four deciduous forest species from contrasting climates (Liquidambar styraciflua, Quercus rubra, Populus grandidentata, and Betula alleghaniensis) to air temperatures 2 and 4 C above ambient controls. Impacts of year-round warming on bud burst (BB), senescence and abscission were evaluated in relation to thermal provenance. Leaves emerged earlier in all species, by an average of 6-9 days atmore » +2 and +4 C. Magnitude of advance varied with species and year, but was larger for the first 2 C increment than the second. The effect of warming increased with early BB, favoring Liquidambar, from the warmest climate, but even BB in northern species advanced, despite temperatures well beyond those of the realized niche. Treatment differences in BB were poorly explained by temperature sums, which increased with treatment. In autumn, chlorophyll was retained an average of 4 and 7 days longer in +2 and +4 C treatments, and abscission delayed by 8 and 13 days. Species differences in autumn responses were marginally significant. Growing seasons in the warmer atmospheres were 6 - 28 days longer, with the least impact in Quercus. Results are compared with a 16-year record of canopy onset and offset in a nearby upland deciduous forest, where BB showed similar responsiveness to spring temperatures (2 - 4 days C-1). Offset dates in the stand tracked August-September temperatures, except when late summer drought caused premature senescence. The common garden-like experimental approach provides evidence that warming alone extends the growing season, at both ends, even if stand-level impacts are complicated by other environmental factors.« less

Compounding nonlinearities in the climate and wildfire system contribute to high uncertainty in estimates of future burned area in the western United State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.

2015-12-01

Ecological studies are increasingly recognizing the importance of atmospheric vapor-pressure deficit (VPD) as a driver of forest drought stress and disturbance processes such as wildfire. Because of the nonlinear Clausius-Clapeyron relationship between temperature and saturation vapor pressure, small variations in temperature can have large impacts on VPD, and therefore drought, particularly in warm, dry areas and particularly during the warm season. It is also clear that VPD and drought affect forest fire nonlinearly, as incremental drying leads to increasingly large burned areas. Forest fire is also affected by fuel amount and connectivity, which are promoted by vegetation growth in previous years, which is in turn promoted by lack of drought, highlighting the importance of nuances in the sequencing of natural interannual climate variations in modulating the impacts of drought on wildfire. The many factors affecting forest fire, and the nonlinearities embedded within the climate and wildfire systems, cause interannual variability in forest-fire area and frequency to be wildly variable and strongly affected by internal climate variability. In addition, warming over the past century has produced a background increase in forest fire frequency and area in many regions. In this talk I focus on the western United States and will explore whether the relationships between internal climate variability on forest fire area have been amplified by the effects of warming as a result of the compounding nonlinearities described above. I will then explore what this means for future burned area in the western United States and make the case that uncertainties in the future global greenhouse gas emissions trajectory, model projections of mean temperatures, model projections of precipitation, and model projections of natural climate variability translate to very large uncertainties in the effects of future climate variability on forest fire area in the United States and globally.

Recent climate hiatus revealed dual control by temperature and drought on the stem growth of Mediterranean Quercus ilex.

PubMed

Lempereur, Morine; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Guibal, Frédéric; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Rambal, Serge; Ruffault, Julien; Mouillot, Florent

2017-01-01

A better understanding of stem growth phenology and its climate drivers would improve projections of the impact of climate change on forest productivity. Under a Mediterranean climate, tree growth is primarily limited by soil water availability during summer, but cold temperatures in winter also prevent tree growth in evergreen forests. In the widespread Mediterranean evergreen tree species Quercus ilex, the duration of stem growth has been shown to predict annual stem increment, and to be limited by winter temperatures on the one hand, and by the summer drought onset on the other hand. We tested how these climatic controls of Q. ilex growth varied with recent climate change by correlating a 40-year tree ring record and a 30-year annual diameter inventory against winter temperature, spring precipitation, and simulated growth duration. Our results showed that growth duration was the best predictor of annual tree growth. We predicted that recent climate changes have resulted in earlier growth onset (-10 days) due to winter warming and earlier growth cessation (-26 days) due to earlier drought onset. These climatic trends partly offset one another, as we observed no significant trend of change in tree growth between 1968 and 2008. A moving-window correlation analysis revealed that in the past, Q. ilex growth was only correlated with water availability, but that since the 2000s, growth suddenly became correlated with winter temperature in addition to spring drought. This change in the climate-growth correlations matches the start of the recent atmospheric warming pause also known as the 'climate hiatus'. The duration of growth of Q. ilex is thus shortened because winter warming has stopped compensating for increasing drought in the last decade. Decoupled trends in precipitation and temperature, a neglected aspect of climate change, might reduce forest productivity through phenological constraints and have more consequences than climate warming alone. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On the structure of the two-stream instability–complex G-Hamiltonian structure and Krein collisions between positive- and negative-action modes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Ruili; Liu, Jian; Xiao, Jianyuan

2016-07-15

The two-stream instability is probably the most important elementary example of collective instabilities in plasma physics and beam-plasma systems. For a warm plasma with two charged particle species, the instability diagram of the two-stream instability based on a 1D warm-fluid model exhibits an interesting band structure that has not been explained. We show that the band structure for this instability is the consequence of the Hamiltonian nature of the warm two-fluid system. Interestingly, the Hamiltonian nature manifests as a complex G-Hamiltonian structure in wave-number space, which directly determines the instability diagram. Specifically, it is shown that the boundaries between themore » stable and unstable regions are locations for Krein collisions between eigenmodes with different Krein signatures. In terms of physics, this rigorously implies that the system is destabilized when a positive-action mode resonates with a negative-action mode, and that this is the only mechanism by which the system can be destabilized. It is anticipated that this physical mechanism of destabilization is valid for other collective instabilities in conservative systems in plasma physics, accelerator physics, and fluid dynamics systems, which admit infinite-dimensional Hamiltonian structures.« less

Impact of Stratospheric Sudden Warming on East Asian Winter Monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Quanliang

2017-04-01

Quanliang Chen, Luyang Xu, and Hongke Cai College of Atmospheric Science, Chengdu University of Information Technology and Plateau Atmospheric and Environment Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610225, China Fifty-two stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events that occurred from 1957 to 2002 were analysed based on the 40-year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis dataset. Those that could descent to the troposphere were composited to investigate their impacts on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). It reveals that when the SSW occurs, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) are both in the negative phase and that the tropospheric circulations quite wave-like. The Siberian high and the Aleutian low are both strengthened, leading to an increased gradient between the Asian continent and the North Pacific. Hence, strong EAWM is observed with widespread cooling over in land and coastal East Asia. After the peak of the SSW, in contrast, the tropospheric circulation is quite zonally symmetric with negative phases of AO and NPO. The mid-tropospheric East Asian trough deepens and shifts eastward. This configuration facilitates warming over the East AsianinlandandcoolingoverthecoastalEastAsiacenteredoverJapan.Theactivitiesofplanetarywavesduringthelifecycleofthe SSW were analysed. The anomalous propagation and the attendant altered amplitude of the planetary waves can well explain the observed circulation and the EAWM.

Photosynthetic temperature responses of tree species in Rwanda: evidence of pronounced negative effects of high temperature in montane rainforest climax species.

PubMed

Vårhammar, Angelica; Wallin, Göran; McLean, Christopher M; Dusenge, Mirindi Eric; Medlyn, Belinda E; Hasper, Thomas B; Nsabimana, Donat; Uddling, Johan

2015-05-01

The sensitivity of photosynthetic metabolism to temperature has been identified as a key uncertainty for projecting the magnitude of the terrestrial feedback on future climate change. While temperature responses of photosynthetic capacities have been comparatively well investigated in temperate species, the responses of tropical tree species remain unexplored. We compared the responses of seedlings of native cold-adapted tropical montane rainforest tree species with those of exotic warm-adapted plantation species, all growing in an intermediate temperature common garden in Rwanda. Leaf gas exchange responses to carbon dioxide (CO2 ) at different temperatures (20-40°C) were used to assess the temperature responses of biochemical photosynthetic capacities. Analyses revealed a lower optimum temperature for photosynthetic electron transport rates than for Rubisco carboxylation rates, along with lower electron transport optima in the native cold-adapted than in the exotic warm-adapted species. The photosynthetic optimum temperatures were generally exceeded by daytime peak leaf temperatures, in particular in the native montane rainforest climax species. This study thus provides evidence of pronounced negative effects of high temperature in tropical trees and indicates high susceptibility of montane rainforest climax species to future global warming. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Can trans-generational experiments be used to enhance species resilience to ocean warming and acidification?

PubMed

Chakravarti, Leela J; Jarrold, Michael D; Gibbin, Emma M; Christen, Felix; Massamba-N'Siala, Gloria; Blier, Pierre U; Calosi, Piero

2016-10-01

Human-assisted, trans-generational exposure to ocean warming and acidification has been proposed as a conservation and/or restoration tool to produce resilient offspring. To improve our understanding of the need for and the efficacy of this approach, we characterized life-history and physiological responses in offspring of the marine polychaete Ophryotrocha labronica exposed to predicted ocean warming (OW: + 3°C), ocean acidification (OA: pH -0.5) and their combination (OWA: + 3°C, pH -0.5), following the exposure of their parents to either control conditions ( within-generational exposure ) or the same conditions ( trans-generational exposure ). Trans-generational exposure to OW fully alleviated the negative effects of within-generational exposure to OW on fecundity and egg volume and was accompanied by increased metabolic activity. While within-generational exposure to OA reduced juvenile growth rates and egg volume, trans-generational exposure alleviated the former but could not restore the latter. Surprisingly, exposure to OWA had no negative impacts within- or trans-generationally. Our results highlight the potential for trans-generational laboratory experiments in producing offspring that are resilient to OW and OA. However, trans-generational exposure does not always appear to improve traits and therefore may not be a universally useful tool for all species in the face of global change.

Is the extent of glaciation limited by marine gas-hydrates?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paull, Charles K.; Ussler, William; Dillon, William P.

1991-01-01

Methane may have been released to the atmosphere during the Quaternary from Arctic shelf gas-hydrates as a result of thermal decomposition caused by climatic warming and rising sea-level; this release of methane (a greenhouse gas) may represent a positive feedback on global warming [Revelle, 1983; Kvenvolden, 1988a; Nisbet, 1990]. We consider the response to sea-level changes by the immense amount of gas-hydrate that exists in continental rise sediments, and suggest that the reverse situation may apply—that release of methane trapped in the deep-sea sediments as gas-hydrates may provide a negative feedback to advancing glaciation. Methane is likely to be released from deep-sea gas-hydrates as sea-level falls because methane gas-hydrates decompose with pressure decrease. Methane would be released to sediment pore space at shallow sub-bottom depths (100's of meters beneath the seafloor, commonly at water depths of 500 to 4,000 m) producing zones of markedly decreased sediment strength, leading to slumping [Carpenter, 1981; Kayen, 1988] and abrupt release of the gas. Methane is likely to be released to the atmosphere in spikes that become larger and more frequent as glaciation progresses. Because addition of methane to the atmosphere warms the planet, this process provides a negative feedback to glaciation, and could trigger deglaciation.

Emiliania huxleyi increases calcification but not expression of calcification-related genes in long-term exposure to elevated temperature and pCO2.

PubMed

Benner, Ina; Diner, Rachel E; Lefebvre, Stephane C; Li, Dian; Komada, Tomoko; Carpenter, Edward J; Stillman, Jonathon H

2013-01-01

Increased atmospheric pCO2 is expected to render future oceans warmer and more acidic than they are at present. Calcifying organisms such as coccolithophores that fix and export carbon into the deep sea provide feedbacks to increasing atmospheric pCO2. Acclimation experiments suggest negative effects of warming and acidification on coccolithophore calcification, but the ability of these organisms to adapt to future environmental conditions is not well understood. Here, we tested the combined effect of pCO2 and temperature on the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi over more than 700 generations. Cells increased inorganic carbon content and calcification rate under warm and acidified conditions compared with ambient conditions, whereas organic carbon content and primary production did not show any change. In contrast to findings from short-term experiments, our results suggest that long-term acclimation or adaptation could change, or even reverse, negative calcification responses in E. huxleyi and its feedback to the global carbon cycle. Genome-wide profiles of gene expression using RNA-seq revealed that genes thought to be essential for calcification are not those that are most strongly differentially expressed under long-term exposure to future ocean conditions. Rather, differentially expressed genes observed here represent new targets to study responses to ocean acidification and warming.

Self-verification and social anxiety: preference for negative social feedback and low social self-esteem.

PubMed

Valentiner, David P; Skowronski, John J; McGrath, Patrick B; Smith, Sarah A; Renner, Kerry A

2011-10-01

A self-verification model of social anxiety views negative social self-esteem as a core feature of social anxiety. This core feature is proposed to be maintained through self-verification processes, such as by leading individuals with negative social self-esteem to prefer negative social feedback. This model is tested in two studies. In Study 1, questionnaires were administered to a college sample (N = 317). In Study 2, questionnaires were administered to anxiety disordered patients (N = 62) before and after treatment. Study 1 developed measures of preference for negative social feedback and social self-esteem, and provided evidence of their incremental validity in a college sample. Study 2 found that these two variables are not strongly related to fears of evaluation, are relatively unaffected by a treatment that targets such fears, and predict residual social anxiety following treatment. Overall, these studies provide preliminary evidence for a self-verification model of social anxiety.

Catalytic power of enzymes decreases with temperature: New insights for understanding soil C cycling and microbial ecology under warming.

PubMed

Alvarez, Gaël; Shahzad, Tanvir; Andanson, Laurence; Bahn, Michael; Wallenstein, Matthew D; Fontaine, Sébastien

2018-04-23

Most current models of soil C dynamics predict that climate warming will accelerate soil C mineralization, resulting in a long-term CO 2 release and positive feedback to global warming. However, ecosystem warming experiments show that CO 2 loss from warmed soils declines to control levels within a few years. Here, we explore the temperature dependence of enzymatic conversion of polymerized soil organic C (SOC) into assimilable compounds, which is presumed the rate-limiting step of SOC mineralization. Combining literature review, modelling and enzyme assays, we studied the effect of temperature on activity of enzymes considering their thermal inactivation and catalytic activity. We defined the catalytic power of enzymes (E power ) as the cumulative amount of degraded substrate by one unit of enzyme until its complete inactivation. We show a universal pattern of enzyme's thermodynamic properties: activation energy of catalytic activity (EA cat ) < activation energy of thermal inactivation (EA inact ). By investing in stable enzymes (high EA inact ) having high catalytic activity (low EA cat ), microorganisms may maximize the E power of their enzymes. The counterpart of such EAs' hierarchical pattern is the higher relative temperature sensitivity of enzyme inactivation than catalysis, resulting in a reduction in E power under warming. Our findings could explain the decrease with temperature in soil enzyme pools, microbial biomass (MB) and carbon use efficiency (CUE) reported in some warming experiments and studies monitoring the seasonal variation in soil enzymes. They also suggest that a decrease in soil enzyme pools due to their faster inactivation under warming contributes to the observed attenuation of warming effect on soil C mineralization. This testable theory predicts that the ultimate response of SOC degradation to warming can be positive or negative depending on the relative temperature response of E power and microbial production of enzymes. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term experimental watershed sites across North America

PubMed Central

Creed, Irena F; Spargo, Adam T; Jones, Julia A; Buttle, Jim M; Adams, Mary B; Beall, Fred D; Booth, Eric G; Campbell, John L; Clow, Dave; Elder, Kelly; Green, Mark B; Grimm, Nancy B; Miniat, Chelcy; Ramlal, Patricia; Saha, Amartya; Sebestyen, Stephen; Spittlehouse, Dave; Sterling, Shannon; Williams, Mark W; Winkler, Rita; Yao, Huaxia

2014-01-01

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment's change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period – a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of interannual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to interannual variation in the EI – high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., nonresilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to climate warming than the more diverse mixed forest catchments. PMID:24757012

Asymmetric effects of daytime and night-time warming on Northern Hemisphere vegetation.

PubMed

Peng, Shushi; Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Myneni, Ranga B; Chen, Anping; Chevallier, Frédéric; Dolman, Albertus J; Janssens, Ivan A; Peñuelas, Josep; Zhang, Gengxin; Vicca, Sara; Wan, Shiqiang; Wang, Shiping; Zeng, Hui

2013-09-05

Temperature data over the past five decades show faster warming of the global land surface during the night than during the day. This asymmetric warming is expected to affect carbon assimilation and consumption in plants, because photosynthesis in most plants occurs during daytime and is more sensitive to the maximum daily temperature, Tmax, whereas plant respiration occurs throughout the day and is therefore influenced by both Tmax and the minimum daily temperature, Tmin. Most studies of the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming, however, ignore this asymmetric forcing effect on vegetation growth and carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes. Here we analyse the interannual covariations of the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, an indicator of vegetation greenness) with Tmax and Tmin over the Northern Hemisphere. After removing the correlation between Tmax and Tmin, we find that the partial correlation between Tmax and NDVI is positive in most wet and cool ecosystems over boreal regions, but negative in dry temperate regions. In contrast, the partial correlation between Tmin and NDVI is negative in boreal regions, and exhibits a more complex behaviour in dry temperate regions. We detect similar patterns in terrestrial net CO2 exchange maps obtained from a global atmospheric inversion model. Additional analysis of the long-term atmospheric CO2 concentration record of the station Point Barrow in Alaska suggests that the peak-to-peak amplitude of CO2 increased by 23 ± 11% for a +1 °C anomaly in Tmax from May to September over lands north of 51° N, but decreased by 28 ± 14% for a +1 °C anomaly in Tmin. These lines of evidence suggest that asymmetric diurnal warming, a process that is currently not taken into account in many global carbon cycle models, leads to a divergent response of Northern Hemisphere vegetation growth and carbon sequestration to rising temperatures.

Negative effects of climate change on upland grassland productivity and carbon fluxes are not attenuated by nitrogen status.

PubMed

Eze, Samuel; Palmer, Sheila M; Chapman, Pippa J

2018-05-09

Effects of climate change on managed grassland carbon (C) fluxes and biomass production are not well understood. In this study, we investigated the individual and interactive effects of experimental warming (+3 °C above ambient summer daily range of 9-12 °C), supplemental precipitation (333 mm +15%) and drought (333 mm -23%) on plant biomass, microbial biomass C (MBC), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and dissolved organic C (DOC) flux in soil cores from two upland grasslands of different soil nitrogen (N) status (0.54% and 0.37%) in the UK. After one month of acclimation to ambient summer temperature and precipitation, five replicate cores of each treatment were subjected to three months of experimental warming, drought and supplemental precipitation, based on the projected regional summer climate by the end of the 21st Century, in a fully factorial design. NEE and DOC flux were measured throughout the experimental duration, alongside other environmental variables including soil temperature and moisture. Plant biomass and MBC were determined at the end of the experiment. Results showed that warming plus drought resulted in a significant decline in belowground plant biomass (-29 to -37%), aboveground plant biomass (-35 to -77%) and NEE (-13 to -29%), regardless of the N status of the soil. Supplemental precipitation could not reverse the negative effects of warming on the net ecosystem C uptake and plant biomass production. This was attributed to physiological stress imposed by warming which suggests that future summer climate will reduce the C sink capacity of the grasslands. Due to the low moisture retention observed in this study, and to verify our findings, it is recommended that future experiments aimed at measuring soil C dynamics under climate change should be carried out under field conditions. Longer term experiments are recommended to account for seasonal and annual variability, and adaptive changes in biota. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temperature Effects on Biomass and Regeneration of Vegetation in a Geothermal Area

PubMed Central

Nishar, Abdul; Bader, Martin K.-F.; O’Gorman, Eoin J.; Deng, Jieyu; Breen, Barbara; Leuzinger, Sebastian

2017-01-01

Understanding the effects of increasing temperature is central in explaining the effects of climate change on vegetation. Here, we investigate how warming affects vegetation regeneration and root biomass and if there is an interactive effect of warming with other environmental variables. We also examine if geothermal warming effects on vegetation regeneration and root biomass can be used in climate change experiments. Monitoring plots were arranged in a grid across the study area to cover a range of soil temperatures. The plots were cleared of vegetation and root-free ingrowth cores were installed to assess above and below-ground regeneration rates. Temperature sensors were buried in the plots for continued soil temperature monitoring. Soil moisture, pH, and soil chemistry of the plots were also recorded. Data were analyzed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and linear regression to identify the environmental variable with the greatest influence on vegetation regeneration and root biomass. There was lower root biomass and slower vegetation regeneration in high temperature plots. Soil temperature was positively correlated with soil moisture and negatively correlated with soil pH. Iron and sulfate were present in the soil in the highest quantities compared to other measured soil chemicals and had a strong positive relationship with soil temperature. Our findings suggest that soil temperature had a major impact on root biomass and vegetation regeneration. In geothermal fields, vegetation establishment and growth can be restricted by low soil moisture, low soil pH, and an imbalance in soil chemistry. The correlation between soil moisture, pH, chemistry, and plant regeneration was chiefly driven by soil temperature. Soil temperature was negatively correlated to the distance from the geothermal features. Apart from characterizing plant regeneration on geothermal soils, this study further demonstrates a novel approach to global warming experiments, which could be particularly useful in low heat flow geothermal systems that more realistically mimic soil warming. PMID:28326088

Temperature Effects on Biomass and Regeneration of Vegetation in a Geothermal Area.

PubMed

Nishar, Abdul; Bader, Martin K-F; O'Gorman, Eoin J; Deng, Jieyu; Breen, Barbara; Leuzinger, Sebastian

2017-01-01

Understanding the effects of increasing temperature is central in explaining the effects of climate change on vegetation. Here, we investigate how warming affects vegetation regeneration and root biomass and if there is an interactive effect of warming with other environmental variables. We also examine if geothermal warming effects on vegetation regeneration and root biomass can be used in climate change experiments. Monitoring plots were arranged in a grid across the study area to cover a range of soil temperatures. The plots were cleared of vegetation and root-free ingrowth cores were installed to assess above and below-ground regeneration rates. Temperature sensors were buried in the plots for continued soil temperature monitoring. Soil moisture, pH, and soil chemistry of the plots were also recorded. Data were analyzed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and linear regression to identify the environmental variable with the greatest influence on vegetation regeneration and root biomass. There was lower root biomass and slower vegetation regeneration in high temperature plots. Soil temperature was positively correlated with soil moisture and negatively correlated with soil pH. Iron and sulfate were present in the soil in the highest quantities compared to other measured soil chemicals and had a strong positive relationship with soil temperature. Our findings suggest that soil temperature had a major impact on root biomass and vegetation regeneration. In geothermal fields, vegetation establishment and growth can be restricted by low soil moisture, low soil pH, and an imbalance in soil chemistry. The correlation between soil moisture, pH, chemistry, and plant regeneration was chiefly driven by soil temperature. Soil temperature was negatively correlated to the distance from the geothermal features. Apart from characterizing plant regeneration on geothermal soils, this study further demonstrates a novel approach to global warming experiments, which could be particularly useful in low heat flow geothermal systems that more realistically mimic soil warming.

Spatiotemporal Divergence of the Warming Hiatus over Land Based on Different Definitions of Mean Temperature

PubMed Central

Zhou, Chunlüe; Wang, Kaicun

2016-01-01

Existing studies of the recent warming hiatus over land are primarily based on the average of daily minimum and maximum temperatures (T2). This study compared regional warming rates of mean temperature based on T2 and T24 calculated from hourly observations available from 1998 to 2013. Both T2 and T24 show that the warming hiatus over land is apparent in the mid-latitudes of North America and Eurasia, especially in cold seasons, which is closely associated with the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) and cold air propagation by the Arctic-original northerly wind anomaly into mid-latitudes. However, the warming rates of T2 and T24 are significantly different at regional and seasonal scales because T2 only samples air temperature twice daily and cannot accurately reflect land-atmosphere and incoming radiation variations in the temperature diurnal cycle. The trend has a standard deviation of 0.43 °C/decade for T2 and 0.41 °C/decade for T24, and 0.38 °C/decade for their trend difference in 5° × 5° grids. The use of T2 amplifies the regional contrasts of the warming rate, i.e., the trend underestimation in the US and overestimation at high latitudes by T2. PMID:27531421

Trends in mean and extreme temperatures over Ibadan, Southwest Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatan, Abayomi A.; Osayomi, Tolulope; Akande, Samuel O.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Gutowski, William J.

2018-02-01

In recent times, Ibadan has been experiencing an increase in mean temperature which appears to be linked to anthropogenic global warming. Previous studies have indicated that the warming may be accompanied by changes in extreme events. This study examined trends in mean and extreme temperatures over Ibadan during 1971-2012 at annual and seasonal scales using the high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) twentieth-century dataset (ERA-20C) at 15 grid points. Magnitudes of linear trends in mean and extreme temperatures and their statistical significance were calculated using ordinary least squares and Mann-Kendall rank statistic tests. The results show that Ibadan has witnessed an increase in annual and seasonal mean minimum temperatures. The annual mean maximum temperature exhibited a non-significant decline in most parts of Ibadan. While trends in cold extremes at annual scale show warming, trends in coldest night show greater warming than in coldest day. At the seasonal scale, we found that Ibadan experienced a mix of positive and negative trends in absolute extreme temperature indices. However, cold extremes show the largest trend magnitudes, with trends in coldest night showing the greatest warming. The results compare well with those obtained from a limited number of stations. This study should inform decision-makers and urban planners about the ongoing warming in Ibadan.

Environmental Progression: The Psychological Justification for Reframing Climate Change and Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldey, S. H.

2016-12-01

On-going research in climate science communication through environmental media has uncovered critical barriers to reducing denial and increasing agency in addressing the threat of climate change. Similar to framing of our changing environment as "global warming", the term "climate change" also fails to properly frame the most critical challenge our species has faced. In a set of preliminary studies, significant changes in climate crisis denial, both positive and negative, have resulted from different media messaging. Continuation of this research utilizes social judgement theory (SJT) to classify a broader spectrum of effective avenues for environmental communication. The specificity of the terms global warming and climate change limit inclusion of issues critical to understanding their impacts. Now that the masses know what climate change is, it's time to teach them what it means.

From aerosol-limited to invigoration of warm convective clouds.

PubMed

Koren, Ilan; Dagan, Guy; Altaratz, Orit

2014-06-06

Among all cloud-aerosol interactions, the invigoration effect is the most elusive. Most of the studies that do suggest this effect link it to deep convective clouds with a warm base and cold top. Here, we provide evidence from observations and numerical modeling of a dramatic aerosol effect on warm clouds. We propose that convective-cloud invigoration by aerosols can be viewed as an extension of the concept of aerosol-limited clouds, where cloud development is limited by the availability of cloud-condensation nuclei. A transition from pristine to slightly polluted atmosphere yields estimated negative forcing of ~15 watts per square meter (cooling), suggesting that a substantial part of this anthropogenic forcing over the oceans occurred at the beginning of the industrial era, when the marine atmosphere experienced such transformation. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Smile Intensity and Warm Touch as Thin Slices of Child and Family Affective Style

PubMed Central

Oveis, Christopher; Gruber, June; Keltner, Dacher; Stamper, Juliet L.; Boyce, W. Thomas

2010-01-01

We investigate the claim that thin slices of expressive behavior serve as reliable indicators of affective style in children and their families. Using photographs, we assessed smile intensity and tactile contact in kindergartners and their families. Consistent with claims that smiling and touch communicate positive emotion, measures of children’s smile intensity and warm family touch were correlated across classroom and family contexts. Consistent with studies of parent-child personality associations, parents’ warm smiles and negative facial displays resembled those of their children. Finally, consistent with observed relations between adult personality and positive display, children’s smiling behavior in the classroom correlated with parent ratings of children’s Extraversion/Surgency. These results highlight the utility of thin slices of smiling and touch as indicators of child and family affective style. PMID:19653777

Smile intensity and warm touch as thin slices of child and family affective style.

PubMed

Oveis, Christopher; Gruber, June; Keltner, Dacher; Stamper, Juliet L; Boyce, W Thomas

2009-08-01

The authors investigate the claim that thin slices of expressive behavior serve as reliable indicators of affective style in children and their families. Using photographs, the authors assessed smile intensity and tactile contact in kindergartners and their families. Consistent with claims that smiling and touch communicate positive emotion, measures of children's smile intensity and warm family touch were correlated across classroom and family contexts. Consistent with studies of parent-child personality associations, parents' warm smiles and negative facial displays resembled those of their children. Finally, consistent with observed relations between adult personality and positive display, children's smiling behavior in the classroom correlated with parent ratings of children's Extraversion/Surgency. These results highlight the utility of thin slices of smiling and touch as indicators of child and family affective style. 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Comments on "Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenetic Processes during SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, Scott A.

2010-01-01

Considerable attention has been given to the potential negative impacts of the Saharan air layer (SAL) in recent years. Researchers recently raised questions about the negative impacts of Dunion and Velden and other studies in terms of storms that reached at least tropical storm strength and suggested that the SAL was an intrinsic part of the tropical cyclone environment for both storms that weaken after formation and those that intensify. Braun also suggested that several incorrect assumptions underlie many of the studies on the negative impacts of the SAL, including assumptions that most low-to-midlevel dry tropical air is SAL air, that the SAL is dry throughout its depth, and that the proximity of the SAL to storms struggling to intensify implies some role in that struggle. The recent paper by Reale et al.(RL1) is an example of the problems inherent in some of these assumptions. In their paper, RL1 analyze a simulation from the Global Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) global model and describe an extensive tongue of warm, dry air that stretches southward from at least 30 deg N (the northern limit of their plots) and wraps into a low pressure system during the period 26-29 August 2006, suppressing convection and possibly development of the African easterly wave associated with that low pressure system. They attributed the warm, dry tongue to the SAL (i.e., heating of the air mass during passage over the Sahara and radiative warming of the dust layer). Whether it was their intention, the implication is that this entire feature is due solely to the SAL and not to other possible sources of dry air or warmth. In addition, they suggested that a cool tongue of air in the boundary layer located directly beneath the elevated warm, dry tongue (forming a thermal dipole) was possibly the result of reduced solar radiation caused by an overlying dust layer. They stated that "the cool anomaly in the lower levels does not have any plausible explanation relying only on transport." In this comment, evidence from satellite and global meteorological analyses is presented that casts considerable doubt upon RL1 s interpretation of the GEOS-5 forecasts and their conclusion that the results implied a negative role of the SAL. We show that the major portion of the warm, dry air aloft was located in a nearly dust-free slot between two Saharan dust outbreaks, had a significant source from the midlatitudes (>30 N), and was likely driven by strong subsidence warming and drying. In addition, when wind fields are examined in a reference frame moving with the wave, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global meteorological analyses suggest that the cool tongue in the boundary layer can be readily explained by transport of cooler air from higher latitudes. At the very least, it offers a plausible alternative explanation for the cool tongue that does not rely on radiative impacts of the dust.

NEOTEC: Negative-CO2-Emissions Marine Energy With Direct Mitigation of Global Warming, Sea-Level Rise and Ocean Acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rau, G. H.; Baird, J.; Noland, G.

2016-12-01

The vertical thermal energy potential in the ocean is a massive renewable energy resource that is growing due to anthropogenic warming of the surface and near-surface ocean. The conversion of this thermal energy to useful forms via Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) has been demonstrated over the past century, albeit at small scales. Because OTEC removes heat from the surface ocean, this could help directly counter ongoing, deleterious ocean/atmosphere warming. The only other climate intervention that could do this is solar radiation "geoengineering". Conventional OTEC requires energy intensive, vertical movement of seawater resulting in ocean and atmospheric chemistry alteration, but this can be avoided via more energy efficient, vertical closed-cycle heating and cooling of working fluid like CO2 or NH3. An energy carrier such as H2 is required to transport energy optimally extracted far offshore, and methods of electrochemically generating H2 while also consuming CO2 and converting it to ocean alkalinity have been demonstrated. The addition of such alkalinity to the ocean would provide vast, stable, carbon storage, while also helping chemically counter the effects of ocean acidification. The process might currently be profitable given the >$100/tonne CO2 credit offered by California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard for transportation fuels like H2. Negative-Emissions OTEC, NEOTEC, thus can potentially provide constant, cost effective, high capacity, negative-emissions energy while: a) reducing surface ocean heat load, b) reducing thermal ocean expansion and sea-level rise, c) utilizing a very large, natural marine carbon storage reservoir, and d) helping mitigate ocean acidification. The technology also avoids the biophysical and land use limitations posed by negative emissions methods that rely on terrestrial biology, such as afforestation and BECCS. NEOTEC and other marine-based, renewable energy and CO2 removal approaches could therefore greatly increase the likelihood of satisfying growing global energy demand while helping to stabilize or reduce atmospheric CO2 and its impacts. Policies supporting the search and evaluation of renewable energy and negative emissions options beyond biotic- and land-based methods are needed.

Managing ambivalent prejudices: The smart-but-cold, and the warm-butdumb sterotypes

PubMed Central

FISkE, SUSAN T.

2013-01-01

Not all biases are equivalent, and not all biases are uniformly negative. Two fundamental dimensions differentiate stereotyped groups in cultures across the globe: status predicts perceived competence, and cooperation predicts perceived warmth. Crossing the competence and warmth dimensions, two combinations produce ambivalent prejudices: pitied groups (often traditional women or older people) appear warm but incompetent, and envied groups (often nontraditional women or outsider entrepreneurs) appear competent but cold. Case studies in ambivalent sexism, heterosexism, racism, anti-immigrant biases, ageism, and classism illustrate both the dynamics and the management of these complex but knowable prejudices. PMID:24115779

Langmuir wave phase-mixing in warm electron-positron-dusty plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pramanik, Sourav; Maity, Chandan

2018-04-01

An analytical study on nonlinear evolution of Langmuir waves in warm electron-positron-dusty plasmas is presented. The massive dust grains of either positively or negatively charged are assumed to form a fixed charge neutralizing background. A perturbative analysis of the fluid-Maxwell's equations confirms that the excited Langmuir waves phase-mix and eventually break, even at arbitrarily low amplitudes. It is shown that the nature of the dust-charge as well as the amount of dust grains can significantly influence the Langmuir wave phase-mixing process. The phase-mixing time is also found to increase with the temperature.

Managing ambivalent prejudices: The smart-but-cold, and the warm-butdumb sterotypes.

PubMed

Fiske, Susan T

2012-01-01

Not all biases are equivalent, and not all biases are uniformly negative. Two fundamental dimensions differentiate stereotyped groups in cultures across the globe: status predicts perceived competence, and cooperation predicts perceived warmth. Crossing the competence and warmth dimensions, two combinations produce ambivalent prejudices: pitied groups (often traditional women or older people) appear warm but incompetent, and envied groups (often nontraditional women or outsider entrepreneurs) appear competent but cold. Case studies in ambivalent sexism, heterosexism, racism, anti-immigrant biases, ageism, and classism illustrate both the dynamics and the management of these complex but knowable prejudices.

Aerosol Forcing of Climate Change and Anomalous Atmospheric Absorption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.

2000-01-01

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change, Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well-measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. We will focus on the role of aerosols as a climate forcing mechanism and the contribution that aerosols might make to the so-called "anomalous" atmospheric absorption that has been inferred from some atmospheric measurements.

Aerosol Forcing of Climate Change and "Anomalous" Atmospheric Absorption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.

1999-01-01

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well-measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. We will focus on the role of aerosols as a climate forcing mechanism and the contribution that aerosols might make to the so- called "anomalous" atmospheric absorption that has been inferred from some atmospheric measurements.

Helicity statistics in homogeneous and isotropic turbulence and turbulence models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahoo, Ganapati; De Pietro, Massimo; Biferale, Luca

2017-02-01

We study the statistical properties of helicity in direct numerical simulations of fully developed homogeneous and isotropic turbulence and in a class of turbulence shell models. We consider correlation functions based on combinations of vorticity and velocity increments that are not invariant under mirror symmetry. We also study the scaling properties of high-order structure functions based on the moments of the velocity increments projected on a subset of modes with either positive or negative helicity (chirality). We show that mirror symmetry is recovered at small scales, i.e., chiral terms are subleading and they are well captured by a dimensional argument plus anomalous corrections. These findings are also supported by a high Reynolds numbers study of helical shell models with the same chiral symmetry of Navier-Stokes equations.

When mere exposure leads to less liking: the incremental threat effect in intergroup contexts.

PubMed

Crisp, Richard J; Hutter, Russell R C; Young, Bryony

2009-02-01

In two experiments we tested the hypothesis that repeated exposure to out-group-relevant attitude objects would lead to less liking following a threat to identity. In Experiment 1 exposure to abstract artwork ostensibly created by a member of an out-group university led to more liking under baseline conditions, but not following a manipulation of threat. In Experiment 2 we observed a negative relationship between exposure and liking following threat: liking reversed the typical mere exposure effect. Reported emotion mediated the interactive effect of threat and exposure on liking. These findings illustrate how social identity threat can be experienced incrementally as a function of exposure. We discuss the findings in the context of an integration of research on exposure, identity, attitudes, and contact.

Effect of tree-ring detrending method on apparent growth trends of black and white spruce in interior Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullivan, Patrick F.; Pattison, Robert R.; Brownlee, Annalis H.; Cahoon, Sean M. P.; Hollingsworth, Teresa N.

2016-11-01

Boreal forests are critical sinks in the global carbon cycle. However, recent studies have revealed increasing frequency and extent of wildfires, decreasing landscape greenness, increasing tree mortality and declining growth of black and white spruce in boreal North America. We measured ring widths from a large set of increment cores collected across a vast area of interior Alaska and examined implications of data processing decisions for apparent trends in black and white spruce growth. We found that choice of detrending method had important implications for apparent long-term growth trends and the strength of climate-growth correlations. Trends varied from strong increases in growth since the Industrial Revolution, when ring widths were detrended using single-curve regional curve standardization (RCS), to strong decreases in growth, when ring widths were normalized by fitting a horizontal line to each ring width series. All methods revealed a pronounced growth peak for black and white spruce centered near 1940. Most detrending methods showed a decline from the peak, leaving recent growth of both species near the long-term mean. Climate-growth analyses revealed negative correlations with growing season temperature and positive correlations with August precipitation for both species. Multiple-curve RCS detrending produced the strongest and/or greatest number of significant climate-growth correlations. Results provide important historical context for recent growth of black and white spruce. Growth of both species might decline with future warming, if not mitigated by increasing precipitation. However, widespread drought-induced mortality is probably not imminent, given that recent growth was near the long-term mean.

Changes in ENSO amplitude under climate warming and cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yingying; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

2018-05-01

The response of ENSO amplitude to climate warming and cooling is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in which the warming and cooling scenarios are designed by adding heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign onto the ocean surface, respectively. Results show that the warming induces an increase of the ENSO amplitude but the cooling gives rise to a decrease of the ENSO amplitude, and these changes are robust in statistics. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that the increasing (decreasing) SST tendency under climate warming (cooling) is mainly due to an enhancement (weakening) of dynamical feedback processes over the equatorial Pacific, including zonal advective (ZA) feedback, meridional advective (MA) feedback, thermocline (TH) feedback, and Ekman (EK) feedback. As the climate warms, a wind anomaly of the same magnitude across the equatorial Pacific can induce a stronger zonal current change in the east (i.e., a stronger ZA feedback), which in turn produces a greater weakening of upwelling (i.e., a stronger EK feedback) and thus a larger thermocline change (i.e., a stronger TH feedback). In response to the climate warming, in addition, the MA feedback is also strengthened due to an enhancement of the meridional SST gradient around the equator resulting from a weakening of the subtropical cells (STCs). It should be noted that the weakened STCs itself has a negative contribution to the change of the MA feedback which, however, appears to be secondary. And vice versa for the cooling case. Bjerknes linear stability (BJ) index is also evaluated for the linear stability of ENSO, with remarkably larger (smaller) BJ index found for the warming (cooling) case.

Experimental climate warming decreases photosynthetic efficiency of lichens in an arid South African ecosystem.

PubMed

Maphangwa, Khumbudzo Walter; Musil, Charles F; Raitt, Lincoln; Zedda, Luciana

2012-05-01

Elevated temperatures and diminished precipitation amounts accompanying climate warming in arid ecosystems are expected to have adverse effects on the photosynthesis of lichen species sensitive to elevated temperature and/or water limitation. This premise was tested by artificially elevating temperatures (increase 2.1-3.8°C) and reducing the amounts of fog and dew precipitation (decrease 30.1-31.9%), in an approximation of future climate warming scenarios, using transparent hexagonal open-top warming chambers placed around natural populations of four lichen species (Xanthoparmelia austroafricana, X. hyporhytida , Xanthoparmelia. sp., Xanthomaculina hottentotta) at a dry inland site and two lichen species (Teloschistes capensis and Ramalina sp.) at a humid coastal site in the arid South African Succulent Karoo Biome. Effective photosynthetic quantum yields ([Formula: see text]) were measured hourly throughout the day at monthly intervals in pre-hydrated lichens present in the open-top warming chambers and in controls which comprised demarcated plots of equivalent open-top warming chamber dimensions constructed from 5-cm-diameter mesh steel fencing. The cumulative effects of the elevated temperatures and diminished precipitation amounts in the open-top warming chambers resulted in significant decreases in lichen [Formula: see text]. The decreases were more pronounced in lichens from the dry inland site (decline 34.1-46.1%) than in those from the humid coastal site (decline 11.3-13.7%), most frequent and prominent in lichens at both sites during the dry summer season, and generally of greatest magnitude at or after the solar noon in all seasons. Based on these results, we conclude that climate warming interacting with reduced precipitation will negatively affect carbon balances in endemic lichens by increasing desiccation damage and reducing photosynthetic activity time, leading to increased incidences of mortality.

Are winter-active species vulnerable to climate warming? A case study with the wintergreen terrestrial orchid, Tipularia discolor.

PubMed

Marchin, Renée M; Dunn, Robert R; Hoffmann, William A

2014-12-01

In the eastern United States, winter temperature has been increasing nearly twice as fast as summer temperature, but studies of warming effects on plants have focused on species that are photosynthetically active in summer. The terrestrial orchid Tipularia discolor is leafless in summer and acquires C primarily in winter. The optimum temperature for photosynthesis in T. discolor is higher than the maximum temperature throughout most of its growing season, and therefore growth can be expected to increase with warming. Contrary to this hypothesis, experimental warming negatively affected reproductive fitness (number of flowering stalks, flowers, fruits) and growth (change in leaf area from 2010 to 2012) in T. discolor. Temperature in June-July was critical for flowering, and mean July temperature greater than 29 °C (i.e., 2.5 °C above ambient) eliminated reproduction. Warming of 1.2 °C delayed flowering by an average of 10 days and fruiting by an average of 5 days. Warming of 4.4 °C reduced relative growth rates by about 60%, which may have been partially caused by the direct effects of temperature on photosynthesis and respiration. Warming indirectly increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD) by 0.2-0.5 kPa, and leaf-to-air VPD over 1.3 kPa restricted stomatal conductance of T. discolor to 10-40% of maximum conductance. These results highlight the need to account for changes in VPD when estimating temperature responses of plant species under future warming scenarios. Increasing temperature in the future will likely be an important limiting factor to the distribution of T. discolor, especially along the southern edge of its range.

Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iles, Carley; Hegerl, Gabriele

2017-11-01

Global temperatures have undergone periods of enhanced warming and pauses over the last century, with greater variations at local scales due to internal variability of the climate system. Here we investigate the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in decadal temperature trends in the Northern Hemisphere for periods with large decadal NAO trends. Using a regression based technique we find a best estimate that trends in the NAO more than halved (reduced by 57%, 5%-95%: 47%-63%) the winter warming over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics (NH; 30N-90N) from 1920-1971 and account for 45% (±14%) of the warming there from 1963-1995, with larger impacts on regional scales. Over the period leading into the so-called warming hiatus, 1989-2013, the NAO reduced NH winter warming to around one quarter (24%; 19%-31%) of what it would have been, and caused large negative regional trends, for example, in Northern Eurasia. Warming is more spatially uniform across the Northern Hemisphere after removing the NAO influence in winter, and agreement with multi-model mean simulated trends improves. The impact of the summer NAO is much weaker, but still discernible over Europe, North America and Greenland, with the downward trend in the summer NAO from 1988-2012 reducing warming by about a third in Northern Europe and a half in North America. A composite analysis using CMIP5 control runs suggests that the ocean response to prolonged NAO trends may increase the influence of decadal NAO trends compared to estimates based on interannual regressions, particularly in the Arctic. Results imply that the long-term NAO trends over the 20th century alternately masked or enhanced anthropogenic warming, and will continue to temporarily offset or enhance its effects in the future.

An investigation of the effects from a urethral warming system on temperature distributions during cryoablation treatment of the prostate: a phantom study.

PubMed

Favazza, C P; Gorny, K R; King, D M; Rossman, P J; Felmlee, J P; Woodrum, D A; Mynderse, L A

2014-08-01

Introduction of urethral warmers to aid cryosurgery in the prostate has significantly reduced the incidence of urethral sloughing; however, the incidence rate still remains as high as 15%. Furthermore, urethral warmers have been associated with an increase of cancer recurrence rates. Here, we report results from our phantom-based investigation to determine the impact of a urethral warmer on temperature distributions around cryoneedles during cryosurgery. Cryoablation treatments were simulated in a tissue mimicking phantom containing a urethral warming catheter. Four different configurations of cryoneedles relative to urethral warming catheter were investigated. For each configuration, the freeze-thaw cycles were repeated with and without the urethral warming system activated. Temperature histories were recorded at various pre-arranged positions relative to the cryoneedles and urethral warming catheter. In all configurations, the urethral warming system was effective at maintaining sub-lethal temperatures at the simulated surface of the urethra. The warmer action, however, was additionally demonstrated to potentially negatively impact treatment lethality in the target zone by elevating minimal temperatures to sub-lethal levels. In all needle configurations, rates of freezing and thawing were not significantly affected by the use of the urethral warmer. The results indicate that the urethral warming system can protect urethral tissue during cryoablation therapy with cryoneedles placed as close as 5mm to the surface of the urethra. Using a urethral warming system and placing multiple cryoneedles within 1cm of each other delivers lethal cooling at least 5mm from the urethral surface while sparing urethral tissue. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Feeling Better About Self After Receiving Negative Feedback: When the Sense That Ability Can Be Improved Is Activated.

PubMed

Hu, Xinyi; Chen, Yinghe; Tian, Baowei

2016-01-01

Past studies suggest that managers and educators often consider negative feedback as a motivator for individuals to think about their shortcomings and improve their work, but delivering negative feedback does not always achieve desired results. The present study, based on incremental theory, employed an intervention method to activate the belief that a particular ability could be improved after negative feedback. Three experiments tested the intervention effect on negative self-relevant emotion. Study 1 indicated conveying suggestions for improving ability reduced negative self-relevant emotion after negative feedback. Study 2 tested whether activating the sense of possible improvement in the ability could reduce negative self-relevant emotion. Results indicated activating the belief that ability could be improved reduced negative self-relevant emotion after failure, but delivering emotion management information alone did not yield the same effect. Study 3 extended the results by affirming the effort participants made in doing the test, and found the affirmation reduced negative self-relevant emotion. Collectively, the findings indicated focusing on the belief that the ability could be improved in the future can reduce negative self-relevant emotion after negative feedback.

Can Designing Self-Representations through Creative Computing Promote an Incremental View of Intelligence and Enhance Creativity among At-Risk Youth?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blau, Ina; Benolol, Nurit

2016-01-01

Creative computing is one of the rapidly growing educational trends around the world. Previous studies have shown that creative computing can empower disadvantaged children and youth. At-risk youth tend to hold a negative view of self and perceive their abilities as inferior compared to "normative" pupils. The Implicit Theories of…

Constraints on global temperature target overshoot.

PubMed

Ricke, K L; Millar, R J; MacMartin, D G

2017-11-07

In the aftermath of the Paris Agreement, the climate science and policy communities are beginning to assess the feasibility and potential benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above preindustrial. Understanding the dependence of the magnitude and duration of possible temporary exceedance (i.e., "overshoot") of temperature targets on sustainable energy decarbonization futures and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal rates will be an important contribution to this policy discussion. Drawing upon results from the mitigation literature and the IPCC Working Group 3 (WG3) scenario database, we examine the global mean temperature implications of differing, independent pathways for the decarbonization of global energy supply and the implementation of negative emissions technologies. We find that within the scope of scenarios broadly-consistent with the WG3 database, the magnitude of temperature overshoot is more sensitive to the rate of decarbonization. However, limiting the duration of overshoot to less than two centuries requires ambitious deployment of both decarbonization and negative emissions technology. The dependencies of temperature target overshoot's properties upon currently untested negative emissions technologies suggests that it will be important to consider how climate impacts depend on both the magnitude and duration of overshoot, not just long term residual warming.

Effectively Coping With Task Stress: A Study of the Validity of the Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire-Short Form (TEIQue-SF).

PubMed

O'Connor, Peter; Nguyen, Jessica; Anglim, Jeromy

2017-01-01

In this study, we investigated the validity of the Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire-Short Form (TEIQue-SF; Petrides, 2009) in the context of task-induced stress. We used a total sample of 225 volunteers to investigate (a) the incremental validity of the TEIQue-SF over other predictors of coping with task-induced stress, and (b) the construct validity of the TEIQue-SF by examining the mechanisms via which scores from the TEIQue-SF predict coping outcomes. Results demonstrated that the TEIQue-SF possessed incremental validity over the Big Five personality traits in the prediction of emotion-focused coping. Results also provided support for the construct validity of the TEIQue-SF by demonstrating that this measure predicted adaptive coping via emotion-focused channels. Specifically, results showed that, following a task stressor, the TEIQue-SF predicted low negative affect and high task performance via high levels of emotion-focused coping. Consistent with the purported theoretical nature of the trait emotional intelligence (EI) construct, trait EI as assessed by the TEIQue-SF primarily enhances affect and performance in stressful situations by regulating negative emotions.

Advanced vehicles: Costs, energy use, and macroeconomic impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Guihua

Advanced vehicles and alternative fuels could play an important role in reducing oil use and changing the economy structure. We developed the Costs for Advanced Vehicles and Energy (CAVE) model to investigate a vehicle portfolio scenario in California during 2010-2030. Then we employed a computable general equilibrium model to estimate macroeconomic impacts of the advanced vehicle scenario on the economy of California. Results indicate that, due to slow fleet turnover, conventional vehicles are expected to continue to dominate the on-road fleet and gasoline is the major transportation fuel over the next two decades. However, alternative fuels could play an increasingly important role in gasoline displacement. Advanced vehicle costs are expected to decrease dramatically with production volume and technological progress; e.g., incremental costs for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen could break even with gasoline savings in 2028. Overall, the vehicle portfolio scenario is estimated to have a slightly negative influence on California's economy, because advanced vehicles are very costly and, therefore, the resulting gasoline savings generally cannot offset the high incremental expenditure on vehicles and alternative fuels. Sensitivity analysis shows that an increase in gasoline price or a drop in alternative fuel prices could offset a portion of the negative impact.

Negative mood regulation expectancies moderate the relationship between psychological abuse and avoidant coping.

PubMed

Shepherd-McMullen, Cassandra; Mearns, Jack; Stokes, Julie E; Mechanic, Mindy B

2015-05-01

This study explored the relationships among psychological abuse, attitudes about intimate partner violence (IPV), negative mood regulation expectancies (NMRE), and coping. Participants were 126 female college students in dating, cohabitating, or married relationships within the previous year. In one single session, they completed self-report scales measuring IPV, NMRE, and coping. Results indicated that women reporting higher levels of psychological abuse reported less negative attitudes toward IPV, engaged in less-active coping responses, and had lower NMRE. Psychological abuse was a significant predictor of avoidant coping, while NMRE significantly predicted both active and avoidant coping. In addition, the interaction of NMRE × Psychological abuse added incremental prediction of avoidant coping. Implications for research and practice are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

Sleep quality and duration are associated with performance in maximal incremental test.

PubMed

Antunes, B M; Campos, E Z; Parmezzani, S S; Santos, R V; Franchini, E; Lira, F S

2017-08-01

Inadequate sleep patterns may be considered a trigger to development of several metabolic diseases. Additionally, sleep deprivation and poor sleep quality can negatively impact performance in exercise training. However, the impact of sleep duration and sleep quality on performance during incremental maximal test performed by healthy men is unclear. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to analyze the association between sleep pattern (duration and quality) and performance during maximal incremental test in healthy male individuals. A total of 28 healthy males volunteered to take part in the study. Sleep quality, sleep duration and physical activity were subjectively assessed by questionnaires. Sleep pattern was classified by sleep duration (>7h or <7h of sleep per night) and sleep quality according to the sum of measured points and/or scores by the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI). Incremental exercise test was performed at 35 watts for untrained subjects, 70 watts for physically active subjects and 105 watts for well-trained subjects. HR max was correlated with sleep quality (r=0.411, p=0.030) and sleep duration (r=-0.430, p=0.022). Participants reporting good sleep quality presented higher values of W max , VO 2max and lower values of HR max when compared to participants with altered sleep. Regarding sleep duration, only W max was influenced by the amount of sleeping hours per night and this association remained significant even after adjustment by VO 2max . Sleep duration and quality are associated, at least in part, with performance during maximal incremental test among healthy men, with losses in W max and HR max . In addition, our results suggest that the relationship between sleep patterns and performance, mainly in W max , is independent of fitness condition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fitness Level Modulates Intraocular Pressure Responses to Strength Exercises.

PubMed

Vera, Jesús; Jiménez, Raimundo; Redondo, Beatríz; Cárdenas, David; García-Ramos, Amador

2018-06-01

Purpose/Aim: The execution of strength exercises has demonstrated to increase the intraocular pressure (IOP) levels, and it may have a negative impact on the ocular health. We aimed to explore the influence of fitness level on the acute IOP response to strength exercises performed under different loading conditions, as well as to test whether the IOP responses differ between the bench press and jump squat when performed against the same relative loads. Forty military personnel males were divided in two subgroups (20 high-fit and 20 low-fit) based on their relative to body mass one-repetition maximum (1-RM). Participants performed an incremental loading test in the bench press and jump squat exercises, and IOP was assessed before and after each repetition by rebound tonometry. IOP increased immediately after executing both exercises (p < 0.01 in both cases), being the magnitude of the IOP increment positively and linearly associated with the increment of the load in both groups (i.e., high-fit and low-fit) and in both exercises (R 2 range: 0.81-1.00). Higher fitness level attenuated the IOP rise produced by both exercises (p < 0.01 in both cases). The bench press induced higher IOP increments than the jump squat for both groups at relative loads of ~50%1-RM and ~60%1-RM (p < 0.01 in all cases). These data indicate that IOP increases as a consequence of performing strength exercises, being the increment accentuated with the increase of the load and in the bench press compared to the jump squat exercise. Of special importance would be that the IOP responses were significantly reduced in high-fit individuals. These findings should be addressed in glaucoma patients.

Incremental value of copeptin to highly sensitive cardiac Troponin I for rapid rule-out of myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Wildi, Karin; Zellweger, Christa; Twerenbold, Raphael; Jaeger, Cedric; Reichlin, Tobias; Haaf, Philip; Faoro, Jonathan; Giménez, Maria Rubini; Fischer, Andreas; Nelles, Berit; Druey, Sophie; Krivoshei, Lian; Hillinger, Petra; Puelacher, Christian; Herrmann, Thomas; Campodarve, Isabel; Rentsch, Katharina; Steuer, Stephan; Osswald, Stefan; Mueller, Christian

2015-01-01

The incremental value of copeptin, a novel marker of endogenous stress, for rapid rule-out of non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) is unclear when sensitive or even high-sensitivity cardiac troponin cTn (hs-cTn) assays are used. In an international multicenter study we evaluated 1929 consecutive patients with symptoms suggestive of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Measurements of copeptin, three sensitive and three hs-cTn assays were performed at presentation in a blinded fashion. The final diagnosis was adjudicated by two independent cardiologists using all clinical information including coronary angiography and levels of hs-cTnT. The incremental value in the diagnosis of NSTEMI was quantified using four outcome measures: area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV). Early presenters (< 4h since chest pain onset) were a pre-defined subgroup. NSTEMI was the adjudicated final diagnosis in 358 (18.6%) patients. As compared to the use of cTn alone, copeptin significantly increased AUC for two (33%) and IDI (between 0.010 and 0.041 (all p < 0.01)), sensitivity and NPV for all six cTn assays (100%); NPV to 96-99% when the 99 th percentile of the respective cTnI assay was combined with a copeptin level of 9 pmol/l (all p < 0.01). The incremental value in early presenters was similar to that of the overall cohort. When used for rapid rule-out of NSTEM in combination with sensitive or hs-cTnI assays, copeptin provides a numerically small, but statistically and likely also clinically significant incremental value. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wind Tunnel Results of Pneumatic Forebody Vortex Control Using Rectangular Slots a Chined Forebody

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, Michael; Meyn, Larry A.

1994-01-01

A subsonic wind tunnel investigation of pneumatic vortex flow control on a chined forebody using slots was accomplished at a dynamic pressure of 50 psf resulting in a R(n)/ft of 1.3 x 10(exp 6). Data were acquired from angles of attack ranging from -4deg to +34deg at side slips of +0.4deg and +10.4deg. The test article used in this study was the 10% scale Fighter Lift and Control (FLAC) advanced diamond winged, vee-tailed fighter configuration. Three different slot blowing concepts were evaluated; outward, downward, and tangential with ail blowing accomplished asymmetrically. The results of three different mass flows (0.067, 0.13, and 0.26 lbm/s; C(sub mu)'s of less than or equal to 0.006, 0.011. and 0.022 respectively) were analyzed and reported. Test data are presented on the effects of mass flows, slot lengths and positions and blowing concepts on yawing moment and side force generation. Results from this study indicate that the outward and downward blowing slots developed yawing moment and side force increments in the direction opposite of the blowing side while the tangential blowing slots generated yawing moment and side force increments in the direction towards the blowing side. The outward and downward blowing slots typically produced positive pitching moment increments while the tangential blowing slots typically generated negative pitching moment increments. The slot blowing nearest the forebody apex was most effective at generating the largest increments and as the slot was moved aft or increased in length, its effectiveness at generating forces and moments diminished.

Photosynthetic capacity and leaf nitrogen decline along a controlled climate gradient in provenances of two widely distributed Eucalyptus species.

PubMed

Crous, Kristine Y; Drake, John E; Aspinwall, Michael J; Sharwood, Robert E; Tjoelker, Mark G; Ghannoum, Oula

2018-05-27

Climate is an important factor limiting tree distributions and adaptation to different thermal environments may influence how tree populations respond to climate warming. Given the current rate of warming, it has been hypothesized that tree populations in warmer, more thermally stable climates may have limited capacity to respond physiologically to warming compared to populations from cooler, more seasonal climates. We determined in a controlled environment how several provenances of widely distributed Eucalyptus tereticornis and E. grandis adjusted their photosynthetic capacity to +3.5°C warming along their native distribution range (~16-38°S) and whether climate of seed origin of the provenances influenced their response to different growth temperatures. We also tested how temperature optima (T opt ) of photosynthesis and J max responded to higher growth temperatures. Our results showed increased photosynthesis rates at a standardized temperature with warming in temperate provenances, while rates in tropical provenances were reduced by about 40% compared to their temperate counterparts. Temperature optima of photosynthesis increased as provenances were exposed to warmer growth temperatures. Both species had ~30% reduced photosynthetic capacity in tropical and subtropical provenances related to reduced leaf nitrogen and leaf Rubisco content compared to temperate provenances. Tropical provenances operated closer to their thermal optimum and came within 3% of the T opt of J max during the daily temperature maxima. Hence, further warming may negatively affect C uptake and tree growth in warmer climates, whereas eucalypts in cooler climates may benefit from moderate warming. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The bioeroding sponge Cliona orientalis will not tolerate future projected ocean warming.

PubMed

Ramsby, Blake D; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Smith, Hillary A; Whalan, Steve; Webster, Nicole S

2018-05-29

Coral reefs face many stressors associated with global climate change, including increasing sea surface temperature and ocean acidification. Excavating sponges, such as Cliona spp., are expected to break down reef substrata more quickly as seawater becomes more acidic. However, increased bioerosion requires that Cliona spp. maintain physiological performance and health under continuing ocean warming. In this study, we exposed C. orientalis to temperature increments increasing from 23 to 32 °C. At 32 °C, or 3 °C above the maximum monthly mean (MMM) temperature, sponges bleached and the photosynthetic capacity of Symbiodinium was compromised, consistent with sympatric corals. Cliona orientalis demonstrated little capacity to recover from thermal stress, remaining bleached with reduced Symbiodinium density and energy reserves after one month at reduced temperature. In comparison, C. orientalis was not observed to bleach during the 2017 coral bleaching event on the Great Barrier Reef, when temperatures did not reach the 32 °C threshold. While C. orientalis can withstand current temperature extremes (<3 °C above MMM) under laboratory and natural conditions, this species would not survive ocean temperatures projected for 2100 without acclimatisation or adaptation (≥3 °C above MMM). Hence, as ocean temperatures increase above local thermal thresholds, C. orientalis will have a negligible impact on reef erosion.

Marginal sea surface temperature variation as a pre-cursor of heat waves over the Korean Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Na, Hye-Yun

2017-11-01

This study examines the role of the marginal sea surface temperature (SST) on heat waves over Korea. It is found that sea surface warming in the south sea of Korea/Japan (122-138°E, 24- 33°N) causes heat waves after about a week. Due to the frictional force, the positive geopotential height anomalies associated with the south sea warming induce divergent flows over the boundary layer. This divergent flow induces the southerly in Korea, which leads to a positive temperature advection. On the other hand, over the freeatmosphere, the geostrophic wind around high-pressure anomalies flows in a westerly direction over Korea during the south sea warming, which is not effective in temperature advection. Therefore, the positive temperature advection in Korea due to the south sea warming decreases with height. This reduces the vertical potential temperature gradient, which indicates a negative potential vorticity (PV) tendency over Korea. Therefore, the high-pressure anomaly over the south sea of Korea is propagated northward, which results in heat waves due to more incoming solar radiation.

Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

2000-01-01

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, whose positive and negative climate forcings are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change of climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs In the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific longterm global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Roots of forbs sense climate fluctuations in the semi-arid Loess Plateau: Herb-chronology based analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Songlin; Li, Zongshan; Wang, Hao; von Arx, Georg; Lü, Yihe; Wu, Xing; Wang, Xiaochun; Liu, Guohua; Fu, Bojie

2016-06-01

Growth of herbaceous plants responds sensitively and rapidly to climate variability. Yet, little is known regarding how climate warming influences the growth of herbaceous plants, particularly in semi-arid sites. This contrasts with widely reported tree growth decline and even mortality in response to severe water deficits due to climate warming around the world. Here, we use the relatively novel approach of herb-chronology to analyze the correlation between climatic factors and annual ring width in the root xylem of two perennial forb species (Medicago sativa, Potentilla chinensis) in the Loess Plateau of China. We show that warming-induced water deficit has a significant negative effect on the growth of herbaceous plants in the Loess Plateau. Our results indicate that the growth of forbs responds rapidly and sensitively to drought variability, implying that water availability plays a dominant role in regulating the growth of herbaceous plants in semi-arid areas. If warming and drying in the Loess Plateau continue in the future, further affects the growth of herbaceous plants, potentially driving regional changes in the relationship between herbaceous vegetation and climate.

Roots of forbs sense climate fluctuations in the semi-arid Loess Plateau: Herb-chronology based analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, S.

2016-12-01

Growth of herbaceous plants responds sensitively and rapidly to climate variability. Yet, little is known regarding how climate warming influences the growth of herbaceous plants, particularly in semi-arid sites. This contrasts with widely reported tree growth decline and even mortality in response to severe water deficits due to climate warming around the world. Here, we use the relatively novel approach of herb-chronology to analyze the correlation between climatic factors and annual ring width in the root xylem of two perennial forb species (Medicago sativa, Potentilla chinensis) in the Loess Plateau of China. We show that warming-induced water deficit has a significant negative effect on the growth of herbaceous plants in the Loess Plateau. Our results indicate that the growth of forbs responds rapidly and sensitively to drought variability, implying that water availability plays a dominant role in regulating the growth of herbaceous plants in semi-arid areas. If warming and drying in the Loess Plateau continue in the future, further affects the growth of herbaceous plants, potentially driving regional changes in the relationship between herbaceous vegetation and climate.

Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change.

PubMed

Williams, C R; Mincham, G; Faddy, H; Viennet, E; Ritchie, S A; Harley, D

2016-10-01

Dengue is the world's most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046-2064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.

Biological response to climate change on a tropical mountain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pounds, J. Alan; Fogden, Michael P. L.; Campbell, John H.

1999-04-01

Recent warming has caused changes in species distribution and abundance, but the extent of the effects is unclear. Here we investigate whether such changes in highland forests at Monteverde, Costa Rica, are related to the increase in air temperatures that followed a step-like warming of tropical oceans in 1976 (refs4, 5). Twenty of 50 species of anurans (frogs and toads) in a 30-km2 study area, including the locally endemic golden toad (Bufo periglenes), disappeared following synchronous population crashes in 1987 (refs 6-8). Our results indicate that these crashes probably belong to a constellation of demographic changes that have altered communities of birds, reptiles and amphibians in the area and are linked to recent warming. The changes are all associated with patterns of dry-season mist frequency, which is negatively correlated with sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and has declined dramatically since the mid-1970s. The biological and climatic patterns suggest that atmospheric warming has raised the average altitude at the base of the orographic cloud bank, as predicted by the lifting-cloud-base hypothesis,.

Seasonal responses of soil respiration to warming and nitrogen addition in a semi-arid alfalfa-pasture of the Loess Plateau, China.

PubMed

Fang, Chao; Ye, Jian-Sheng; Gong, Yanhong; Pei, Jiuying; Yuan, Ziqiang; Xie, Chan; Zhu, Yusi; Yu, Yueyuan

2017-07-15

Responses of soil respiration (R s ) to increasing nitrogen (N) deposition and warming will have far-reaching influences on global carbon (C) cycling. However, the seasonal (growing and non-growing seasons) difference of R s responses to warming and N deposition has rarely been investigated. We conducted a field manipulative experiment in a semi-arid alfalfa-pasture of northwest China to evaluate the response of R s to nitrogen addition and warming from March 2014 to March 2016. Open-top chambers were used to elevate temperature and N was enriched at a rate of 4.42g m -2 yr -1 with NH 4 NO 3 . Results showed that (1) N addition increased R s by 14% over the two-year period; and (2) warming stimulated R s by 15% in the non-growing season, while inhibited it by 5% in the growing season, which can be explained by decreased plant coverage and soil water. The main effect of N addition did not change with time, but that of warming changed with time, with the stronger inhibition observed in the dry year. When N addition and warming were combined, an antagonistic effect was observed in the growing season, whereas a synergism was observed in the non-growing season. Overall, warming and N addition did not affect the Q10 values over the two-year period, but these treatments significantly increased the Q10 values in the growing season compared with the control treatment. In comparison, combined warming and nitrogen addition significantly reduced the Q10 values compared with the single factor treatment. These results suggest that the negative indirect effect of warming-induced water stress overrides the positive direct effect of warming on R s . Our results also imply the necessity of considering the different R s responses in the growing and non-growing seasons to climate change to accurately evaluate the carbon cycle in the arid and semi-arid regions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Artificial asymmetric warming reduces nectar yield in a Tibetan alpine species of Asteraceae

PubMed Central

Mu, Junpeng; Peng, Youhong; Xi, Xinqiang; Wu, Xinwei; Li, Guoyong; Niklas, Karl J.; Sun, Shucun

2015-01-01

Background and Aims Asymmetric warming is one of the distinguishing features of global climate change, in which winter and night-time temperatures are predicted to increase more than summer and diurnal temperatures. Winter warming weakens vernalization and hence decreases the potential to flower for some perennial herbs, and night warming can reduce carbohydrate concentrations in storage organs. This study therefore hypothesized that asymmetric warming should act to reduce flower number and nectar production per flower in a perennial herb, Saussurea nigrescens, a key nectar plant for pollinators in Tibetan alpine meadows. Methods A long-term (6 years) warming experiment was conducted using open-top chambers placed in a natural meadow and manipulated to achieve asymmetric increases in temperature, as follows: a mean annual increase of 0·7 and 2·7 °C during the growing and non-growing seasons, respectively, combined with an increase of 1·6 and 2·8 °C in the daytime and night-time, respectively, from June to August. Measurements were taken of nectar volume and concentration (sucrose content), and also of leaf non-structural carbohydrate content and plant morphology. Key Results Six years of experimental warming resulted in reductions in nectar volume per floret (64·7 % of control), floret number per capitulum (8·7 %) and capitulum number per plant (32·5 %), whereas nectar concentration remained unchanged. Depletion of leaf non-structural carbohydrates was significantly higher in the warmed than in the ambient condition. Overall plant density was also reduced by warming, which, when combined with reductions in flower development and nectar volumes, led to a reduction of ∼90 % in nectar production per unit area. Conclusions The negative effect of asymmetric warming on nectar yields in S. nigrescens may be explained by a concomitant depletion of leaf non-structural carbohydrates. The results thus highlight a novel aspect of how climate change might affect plant–pollinator interactions and plant reproduction via induction of allocation shifts for plants growing in communities subject to asymmetric warming. PMID:25921787

Artificial asymmetric warming reduces nectar yield in a Tibetan alpine species of Asteraceae.

PubMed

Mu, Junpeng; Peng, Youhong; Xi, Xinqiang; Wu, Xinwei; Li, Guoyong; Niklas, Karl J; Sun, Shucun

2015-11-01

Asymmetric warming is one of the distinguishing features of global climate change, in which winter and night-time temperatures are predicted to increase more than summer and diurnal temperatures. Winter warming weakens vernalization and hence decreases the potential to flower for some perennial herbs, and night warming can reduce carbohydrate concentrations in storage organs. This study therefore hypothesized that asymmetric warming should act to reduce flower number and nectar production per flower in a perennial herb, Saussurea nigrescens, a key nectar plant for pollinators in Tibetan alpine meadows. A long-term (6 years) warming experiment was conducted using open-top chambers placed in a natural meadow and manipulated to achieve asymmetric increases in temperature, as follows: a mean annual increase of 0·7 and 2·7 °C during the growing and non-growing seasons, respectively, combined with an increase of 1·6 and 2·8 °C in the daytime and night-time, respectively, from June to August. Measurements were taken of nectar volume and concentration (sucrose content), and also of leaf non-structural carbohydrate content and plant morphology. Six years of experimental warming resulted in reductions in nectar volume per floret (64·7 % of control), floret number per capitulum (8·7 %) and capitulum number per plant (32·5 %), whereas nectar concentration remained unchanged. Depletion of leaf non-structural carbohydrates was significantly higher in the warmed than in the ambient condition. Overall plant density was also reduced by warming, which, when combined with reductions in flower development and nectar volumes, led to a reduction of ∼90 % in nectar production per unit area. The negative effect of asymmetric warming on nectar yields in S. nigrescens may be explained by a concomitant depletion of leaf non-structural carbohydrates. The results thus highlight a novel aspect of how climate change might affect plant-pollinator interactions and plant reproduction via induction of allocation shifts for plants growing in communities subject to asymmetric warming. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Warming Effects on Enzyme Activities are Predominant in Sub-surface Soils of an Arctic Tundra Ecosystem over 6-Year Field Manipulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, H.; Seo, J.; Kim, M.; Jung, J. Y.; Lee, Y. K.

2017-12-01

Arctic tundra ecosystems are of great importance because they store a large amount of carbon as un-decomposed organic matter. Global climate change is expected to affect enzyme activities and heterotrophic respiration in Arctic soils, which may accelerate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission through positive biological feedbacks. Unlike laboratory-based incubation experiments, field measurements often show different warming effects on decomposition of organic carbon and releases of GHGs. In the present study, we conducted a field-based warming experiment in Cambridge Bay, Canada (69°07'48″N, 105°03'36″W) by employing passive chambers during growing seasons over 6 years. A suite of enzyme activities (ß-glucosidase, cellobiohydrolase, N-acetylglucosaminidase, leucine aminopeptidase and phenol oxidase), microbial community structure (NGS), microbial abundances (gene copy numbers of bacteria and fungi), and soil chemical properties have been monitored in two depths (0-5 cm and 5-10 cm) of tundra soils, which were exposed to four different treatments (`control', `warming-only', `water-addition only', and both `warming and water-addition'). Phenol oxidase activity increased substantially, and bacterial community structure and abundance changed in the early stage (after 1 year's warming manipulation), but these changes disappeared afterwards. Most hydrolases were enhanced in surface soils by `water-addition only' over the period. However, the long-term effects of warming appeared in sub-surface soils where both `warming only' and `warming and water addition' increased hydrolase activities. Overall results of this study indicate that the warming effects on enzyme activities in surface soils are only short-term (phenol oxidase) or masked by water-limitation (hydrolases). However, hydrolases activities in sub-surface soils are more strongly enhanced than surface soils by warming, probably due to the lack of water limitation. Meanwhile, negative correlations between hydrolase activities and humic fraction of DOC appeared following the sudden increase in phenol oxidase after 1 year's manipulation, suggesting that `enzyme latch' hypothesis is partially responsible for the control of hydrolases in the ecosystem.

Citizen science shows systematic changes in the temperature difference between air and inland waters with global warming

PubMed Central

Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Mackay, Murray; Stockwell, Jason D.; Thiery, Wim; Grossart, Hans-Peter; Augusto-Silva, Pétala B.; Baulch, Helen M.; de Eyto, Elvira; Hejzlar, Josef; Kangur, Külli; Kirillin, Georgiy; Pierson, Don C.; Rusak, James A.; Sadro, Steven; Woolway, R. Iestyn

2017-01-01

Citizen science projects have a long history in ecological studies. The research usefulness of such projects is dependent on applying simple and standardized methods. Here, we conducted a citizen science project that involved more than 3500 Swedish high school students to examine the temperature difference between surface water and the overlying air (Tw-Ta) as a proxy for sensible heat flux (QH). If QH is directed upward, corresponding to positive Tw-Ta, it can enhance CO2 and CH4 emissions from inland waters, thereby contributing to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The students found mostly negative Tw-Ta across small ponds, lakes, streams/rivers and the sea shore (i.e. downward QH), with Tw-Ta becoming increasingly negative with increasing Ta. Further examination of Tw-Ta using high-frequency temperature data from inland waters across the globe confirmed that Tw-Ta is linearly related to Ta. Using the longest available high-frequency temperature time series from Lake Erken, Sweden, we found a rapid increase in the occasions of negative Tw-Ta with increasing annual mean Ta since 1989. From these results, we can expect that ongoing and projected global warming will result in increasingly negative Tw-Ta, thereby reducing CO2 and CH4 transfer velocities from inland waters into the atmosphere. PMID:28262715

Quantified, Localized Health Benefits of Accelerated Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions.

PubMed

Shindell, Drew; Faluvegi, Greg; Seltzer, Karl; Shindell, Cary

2018-01-01

Societal risks increase as Earth warms, but also for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate even if they lead to identical warming [1]. Accelerating carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions reductions, including as a substitute for negative emissions, hence reduces long-term risks but requires dramatic near-term societal transformations [2]. A major barrier to emissions reductions is the difficulty of reconciling immediate, localized costs with global, long-term benefits [3, 4]. However, 2°C trajectories not relying on negative emissions or 1.5°C trajectories require elimination of most fossil fuel related emissions. This generally reduces co-emissions that cause ambient air pollution, resulting in near-term, localized health benefits. We therefore examine the human health benefits of increasing ambition of 21 st century CO 2 reductions by 180 GtC; an amount that would shift a 'standard' 2°C scenario to 1.5°C or could achieve 2°C without negative emissions. The decreased air pollution leads to 153±43 million fewer premature deaths worldwide, with ~40% occurring during the next 40 years, and minimal climate disbenefits. More than a million premature deaths would be prevented in many metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa, and >200,000 in individual urban areas on every inhabited continent except Australia.

Citizen science shows systematic changes in the temperature difference between air and inland waters with global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Mackay, Murray; Stockwell, Jason D.; Thiery, Wim; Grossart, Hans-Peter; Augusto-Silva, Pétala B.; Baulch, Helen M.; de Eyto, Elvira; Hejzlar, Josef; Kangur, Külli; Kirillin, Georgiy; Pierson, Don C.; Rusak, James A.; Sadro, Steven; Woolway, R. Iestyn

2017-03-01

Citizen science projects have a long history in ecological studies. The research usefulness of such projects is dependent on applying simple and standardized methods. Here, we conducted a citizen science project that involved more than 3500 Swedish high school students to examine the temperature difference between surface water and the overlying air (Tw-Ta) as a proxy for sensible heat flux (QH). If QH is directed upward, corresponding to positive Tw-Ta, it can enhance CO2 and CH4 emissions from inland waters, thereby contributing to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The students found mostly negative Tw-Ta across small ponds, lakes, streams/rivers and the sea shore (i.e. downward QH), with Tw-Ta becoming increasingly negative with increasing Ta. Further examination of Tw-Ta using high-frequency temperature data from inland waters across the globe confirmed that Tw-Ta is linearly related to Ta. Using the longest available high-frequency temperature time series from Lake Erken, Sweden, we found a rapid increase in the occasions of negative Tw-Ta with increasing annual mean Ta since 1989. From these results, we can expect that ongoing and projected global warming will result in increasingly negative Tw-Ta, thereby reducing CO2 and CH4 transfer velocities from inland waters into the atmosphere.

Quantified, localized health benefits of accelerated carbon dioxide emissions reductions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shindell, Drew; Faluvegi, Greg; Seltzer, Karl; Shindell, Cary

2018-04-01

Societal risks increase as Earth warms, and increase further for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate, even if they lead to identical warming as trajectories with reduced near-term emissions1. Accelerating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions, including as a substitute for negative emissions, hence reduces long-term risks but requires dramatic near-term societal transformations2. A major barrier to emissions reductions is the difficulty of reconciling immediate, localized costs with global, long-term benefits3,4. However, 2 °C trajectories not relying on negative emissions or 1.5 °C trajectories require elimination of most fossil-fuel-related emissions. This generally reduces co-emissions that cause ambient air pollution, resulting in near-term, localized health benefits. We therefore examine the human health benefits of increasing 21st-century CO2 reductions by 180 GtC, an amount that would shift a `standard' 2 °C scenario to 1.5 °C or could achieve 2 °C without negative emissions. The decreased air pollution leads to 153 ± 43 million fewer premature deaths worldwide, with 40% occurring during the next 40 years, and minimal climate disbenefits. More than a million premature deaths would be prevented in many metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa, and >200,000 in individual urban areas on every inhabited continent except Australia.

Effects of Intensified 21st Century Drought on the Boreal Forest of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juday, G. P.; Alix, C. M.; Jess, R.; Grant, T. A., III

2014-12-01

A long term perspective on several quasi-decadal cycles of intensifying drought stress across boreal Alaska has been synthesized from monitoring of forest reference stands at Bonanza Creek LTER, Interior Alaska Research Natural Areas, and tree ring sampling across Alaska. The Alaska boreal forest is largely made up of tree populations with two growth responses to temperature increases. Negative responders are more common, and found across the warm, dry Interior. Positive responders are largely in western Alaska, a maritime climate region near the Bering Sea, and at high elevation of the Brooks and Alaska Ranges. Following the North Pacific climate regime shift in 1976-77, negative responder Interior white and black spruce, aspen, and birch all experienced major growth reductions, particularly in warm drought years. Elevated summer temperatures and low annual precipitation of recent decades at low elevations of the Tanana and central Yukon Valleys were outside the values which previously defined the species distributions limits, Long term survival prospects are questionable. Simultaneously, recent elevated temperatures were associated with growth increases of positive responders. On fertile floodplain sites of the lower Yukon and Kuskokwim Rivers, the growth rate of positive responding white spruce is now greater than negative responders for the first time in centuries. NDVI trends in recent decades confirm these opposite growth trends in their respective regions. During peak warm/dry anomalies, forest disturbance, an important process for tree regeneration over the long term, intensified in boreal Alaska. Several insect outbreaks of wood-boring and defoliating species associated with warm temperature/drought stress anomalies appeared, many of them severe, and some not previously known to outbreak. Significant tree injury (e.g. top dieback) and mortality resulted. Wildfire extent and severity increased and reached record levels. The overall pattern has been described as biome shift. Future research is needed on the distribution of boreal forest refuge habitats in the Interior, drought effects on natural tree regeneration and growth/health of young tree populations, carbon accumulation profiles under the modern drought regime compared to earlier, and the genetic disruption of biome shift.

End-Permian mass extinction and palaeoenvironmental changes in Neotethys: Evidence from an oceanic carbonate section in southwestern Tibet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Shu-zhong; Cao, Chang-qun; Zhang, Yi-chun; Li, Wen-zhong; Shi, G. R.; Wang, Yue; Wu, Ya-sheng; Ueno, K.; Henderson, C. M.; Wang, Xiang-dong; Zhang, Hua; Wang, Xiao-juan; Chen, Jun

2010-08-01

This paper documents a new Permian-Triassic carbonate sequence which recorded the end-Permian mass extinction in the isolated oceanic setting of Neotethys in southwestern Tibet, China. The sequence is over 350 m thick and consists of the Gyanyima and the Lower Lanchengquxia formations in ascending order. The Lopingian (Late Permian) Gyanyima Formation is composed of fossiliferous reddish carbonates dominated by Colaniella grainstone and reef facies including fenestrate/sponge/coral framestone and bafflestone. 156 species are recognized from the Lopingian Gyanyima Formation. Composite ranges of brachiopods, ostracods, rugose corals and foraminifers at the Gyanyima Section suggest that evolution and diversification of Permian marine organisms continued to the end-Permian preceding a major faunal extinction close to the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB), coincident with a 2-3‰ negative shift of δ13C carb. The timing and accelerating extinction pattern and the negative δ13C carb excursion are largely comparable with those reported from many previously-documented sections on continental shelf environments. Based on a detailed lithofacies analysis, the latest Permian reefal facies is sharply replaced by ostracod/crinoid packstone/grainstone with abrupt abundant occurrences of Early Triassic conodonts at the Gyanyima Section. This is then followed by thrombolitic microbialite, stromatolite, packstone containing abundant spherical microbes, and bivalve/ammonoid packstone of tidal and intertidal facies. This distinct lithofacies and biofacies shift would, therefore, suggest a dramatic faunal community and environmental change across the PTB. Distinct palaeoclimate fluctuations through the P- T interval are also indicated by the alternation of warm- and cool-water faunas through the uppermost part of the succession. The lower part of the Gyanyima Formation is characterized by a warm condition as indicated by Cathaysian-dominated fossils. This was then followed by a mild cooling event as suggested by the occurrence of many distinct peri-Gondwanan elements and absence of compound corals. The latest Changhsingian is characterized exclusively by warm-water faunal elements of Cathaysian affinities, together with the negative shift of δ13C carb, suggesting a rapid warming event at the very end of Permian in association with much more widespread volcanic activities than we thought before.

An abrupt slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during 1915-1935 induced by solar forcing in a coupled GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, P.; Song, Y.; Yu, Y.; Liu, H.

2014-06-01

In this study, we explore an abrupt change of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) apparent in the historical run simulated by the second version of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model - Spectral Version 2 (FGOALS-s2). The abrupt change is noted during the period from 1915 to 1935, in which the maximal AMOC value is weakened beyond 6 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s-1). The abrupt signal first occurs at high latitudes (north of 46° N), then shifts gradually to middle latitudes (∼35° N) three to seven years later. The weakened AMOC can be explained in the following. The weak total solar irradiance (TIS) during early twentieth century decreases pole-to-equator temperature gradient in the upper stratosphere. The North polar vortex is weakened, which forces a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase during 1905-1914. The negative phase of NAO induces anomalous easterly winds in 50-70° N belts, which decrease the release of heat fluxes from ocean to atmosphere and induce surface warming over these regions. Through the surface ice-albedo feedback, the warming may lead to continuously melting sea ice in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, which results in freshwater accumulation. This can lead to salinity and density reductions and then an abrupt slowdown of AMOC. Moreover, due to increased TIS after 1914, the enhanced Atlantic northward ocean heat transport from low to high latitudes induces an abrupt warming of sea surface temperature or upper ocean temperature in mid-high latitudes, which can also weaken the AMOC. The abrupt change of AMOC also appears in the PiControl run, which is associated with the lasting negative NAO phases due to natural variability.

Warm Anomaly Effects on California Current Phytoplankton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez Ocampo, E.; Gaxiola-Castro, G.; Beier, E.; Durazo, R.

2016-02-01

Positive temperature anomalies were reported in the NE Pacific Ocean since the boreal winter of 2013-2014. Previous studies showed that these anomalies were caused by lower than normal rates of heat loss from the ocean to the atmosphere and by relatively weak cold water advection to the upper ocean. Anomalous Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Absolute Dynamic Topography (ADT), and Chlorophyll (CHL) obtained from monthly remote sensing data were registered in the California Current region during August 2014. Anomalies appeared around the coastal and oceanic zones, particularly in the onshore zone between Monterey Bay, California and Magdalena Bay, Baja California. High positive SST anomalous values up to 4ºC above the long-term mean, 20 cm in ADT, and less of 4.5 mg m-3 of CHL were registered. Changes of 20 cm in ADT above the average are equivalent to 50 m thermocline deepening considering typical values of stratification for the area, which in turn influenced the availability of nutrients and light for phytoplankton growth in the euphotic zone. To examine the influence of the warm anomaly on phytoplankton production, we fitted with Generalized Additive Models the relationship between monthly primary production satellite data and ADT. Primary production inferred from the model, showed during August 2014 high negative anomalies (up to 0.5 gC m-2 d1) in the coastal zone. The first empirical orthogonal function of ADT and PP revealed that the highest ADT anomalies and the lowest primary production occurred off the Baja California Peninsula, between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas. Preliminary conclusions showed that warm anomaly affected negatively to phytoplankton organisms during August 2014, being this evident by low biomass and negative primary production anomalies as result of pycnocline deepens.

Essays in financial economics and econometrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Spada, Gabriele

Chapter 1 (my job market paper) asks the following question: Do asset managers reach for yield because of competitive pressures in a low rate environment? I propose a tournament model of money market funds (MMFs) to study this issue. I show that funds with different costs of default respond differently to changes in interest rates, and that it is important to distinguish the role of risk-free rates from that of risk premia. An increase in the risk premium leads funds with lower default costs to increase risk-taking, while funds with higher default costs reduce risk-taking. Without changes in the premium, low risk-free rates reduce risk-taking. My empirical analysis shows that these predictions are consistent with the risk-taking of MMFs during the 2006--2008 period. Chapter 2, co-authored with Fabrizio Lillo and published in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2014), studies the effect of round-off error (or discretization) on stationary Gaussian long-memory process. For large lags, the autocovariance is rescaled by a factor smaller than one, and we compute this factor exactly. Hence, the discretized process has the same Hurst exponent as the underlying one. We show that in presence of round-off error, two common estimators of the Hurst exponent, the local Whittle (LW) estimator and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), are severely negatively biased in finite samples. We derive conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the LW estimator applied to discretized processes and compute the asymptotic properties of the DFA for generic long-memory processes that encompass discretized processes. Chapter 3, co-authored with Fabrizio Lillo, studies the effect of round-off error on integrated Gaussian processes with possibly correlated increments. We derive the variance and kurtosis of the realized increment process in the limit of both "small" and "large" round-off errors, and its autocovariance for large lags. We propose novel estimators for the variance and lag-one autocorrelation of the underlying, unobserved increment process. We also show that for fractionally integrated processes, the realized increments have the same Hurst exponent as the underlying ones, but the LW estimator applied to the realized series is severely negatively biased in medium-sized samples.

Tree water dynamics in a drying and warming world: Future tree water dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grossiord, Charlotte; Sevanto, Sanna; Borrego, Isaac

Disentangling the relative impacts of precipitation reduction and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) on plant water dynamics and determining whether acclimation may influence these patterns in the future is an important challenge. Here, we report sap flux density (FD), stomatal conductance (Gs), hydraulic conductivity (KL) and xylem anatomy in piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) trees subjected to five years of precipitation reduction, atmospheric warming (elevated VPD) and their combined effects. No acclimation occurred under precipitation reduction: lower Gs and FD were found for both species compared to ambient conditions. Warming reduced the sensibility of stomata to VPD formore » both species but resulted in the maintenance of Gs and FD to ambient levels only for piñon. For juniper, reduced soil moisture under warming negated benefits of stomatal adjustments and resulted in reduced FD, Gs and KL. Although reduced stomatal sensitivity to VPD also occurred under combined stresses, reductions in Gs, FD and KL took place to similar levels as under single stresses for both species. Our results show that stomatal conductance adjustments to high VPD could minimize but not entirely prevent additive effects of warming and drying on water use and carbon acquisition of trees in semi-arid regions.« less

Tree water dynamics in a drying and warming world

DOE PAGES

Grossiord, Charlotte; Sevanto, Sanna Annika; Borrego, Isaac Anthony; ...

2017-05-26

Disentangling the relative impacts of precipitation reduction and vapour pressure deficit ( VPD) on plant water dynamics and determining whether acclimation may influence these patterns in the future is an important challenge. Here, we report sap flux density ( FD), stomatal conductance ( Gs), hydraulic conductivity ( KL) and xylem anatomy in piñon pine ( Pinus edulis) and juniper ( Juniperus monosperma) trees subjected to five years of precipitation reduction, atmospheric warming (elevated VPD) and their combined effects. No acclimation occurred under precipitation reduction: lower Gs and FD were found for both species compared to ambient conditions. Warming reduced themore » sensibility of stomata to VPD for both species but resulted in the maintenance of Gs and FD to ambient levels only for piñon. For juniper, reduced soil moisture under warming negated benefits of stomatal adjustments and resulted in reduced FD, Gs and KL. Although reduced stomatal sensitivity to VPD also occurred under combined stresses, reductions in Gs, FD and KL took place to similar levels as under single stresses for both species. Here our results show that stomatal conductance adjustments to high VPD could minimize but not entirely prevent additive effects of warming and drying on water use and carbon acquisition of trees in semi-arid regions.« less

Tree water dynamics in a drying and warming world

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grossiord, Charlotte; Sevanto, Sanna Annika; Borrego, Isaac Anthony

Disentangling the relative impacts of precipitation reduction and vapour pressure deficit ( VPD) on plant water dynamics and determining whether acclimation may influence these patterns in the future is an important challenge. Here, we report sap flux density ( FD), stomatal conductance ( Gs), hydraulic conductivity ( KL) and xylem anatomy in piñon pine ( Pinus edulis) and juniper ( Juniperus monosperma) trees subjected to five years of precipitation reduction, atmospheric warming (elevated VPD) and their combined effects. No acclimation occurred under precipitation reduction: lower Gs and FD were found for both species compared to ambient conditions. Warming reduced themore » sensibility of stomata to VPD for both species but resulted in the maintenance of Gs and FD to ambient levels only for piñon. For juniper, reduced soil moisture under warming negated benefits of stomatal adjustments and resulted in reduced FD, Gs and KL. Although reduced stomatal sensitivity to VPD also occurred under combined stresses, reductions in Gs, FD and KL took place to similar levels as under single stresses for both species. Here our results show that stomatal conductance adjustments to high VPD could minimize but not entirely prevent additive effects of warming and drying on water use and carbon acquisition of trees in semi-arid regions.« less

Extent of Night Warming and Spatially Heterogeneous Cloudiness Differentiate Temporal Trend of Greenness in Mountainous Tropics in the New Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Mei; Gao, Qiong; Gao, Chunxiao; Wang, Chao

2017-01-01

Tropical forests have essential functions in global C dynamics but vulnerable to changes in land cover land use (LCLUC) and climate. The tropics of Caribbean are experiencing warming and drying climate and diverse LCLUC. However, large-scale studies to detect long-term trends of C and mechanisms behind are still rare. Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we investigated greenness trend in the Greater Antilles Caribbean during 2000-2015, and analyzed trend of vegetation patches without LCLUC to give prominence to climate impacts. We hypothesized that night warming and heavy cloudiness would reduce EVI in this mountainous tropical region. Over the 15 years, EVI decreased significantly in Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico, but increased in Cuba partly due to its strong reforestation. Haiti had the largest decreasing trend because of continuous deforestation for charcoals. After LCLUC was excluded, EVI trend still varied greatly, decreasing in the windward but increasing in the leeward of Puerto Rico. Nighttime warming reinforced by spatially heterogeneous cloudiness was found to significantly and negatively correlate with EVI trend, and explained the spatial pattern of the latter. Although cooled daytime and increased rainfall might enhance EVI, nighttime warming dominated the climate impacts and differentiated the EVI trend.

Extent of Night Warming and Spatially Heterogeneous Cloudiness Differentiate Temporal Trend of Greenness in Mountainous Tropics in the New Century

PubMed Central

Yu, Mei; Gao, Qiong; Gao, Chunxiao; Wang, Chao

2017-01-01

Tropical forests have essential functions in global C dynamics but vulnerable to changes in land cover land use (LCLUC) and climate. The tropics of Caribbean are experiencing warming and drying climate and diverse LCLUC. However, large-scale studies to detect long-term trends of C and mechanisms behind are still rare. Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we investigated greenness trend in the Greater Antilles Caribbean during 2000–2015, and analyzed trend of vegetation patches without LCLUC to give prominence to climate impacts. We hypothesized that night warming and heavy cloudiness would reduce EVI in this mountainous tropical region. Over the 15 years, EVI decreased significantly in Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico, but increased in Cuba partly due to its strong reforestation. Haiti had the largest decreasing trend because of continuous deforestation for charcoals. After LCLUC was excluded, EVI trend still varied greatly, decreasing in the windward but increasing in the leeward of Puerto Rico. Nighttime warming reinforced by spatially heterogeneous cloudiness was found to significantly and negatively correlate with EVI trend, and explained the spatial pattern of the latter. Although cooled daytime and increased rainfall might enhance EVI, nighttime warming dominated the climate impacts and differentiated the EVI trend. PMID:28120949

Listening to Music during Warming-Up Counteracts the Negative Effects of Ramadan Observance on Short-Term Maximal Performance.

PubMed

Aloui, Asma; Briki, Walid; Baklouti, Hana; Chtourou, Hamdi; Driss, Tarak; Chaouachi, Anis; Chamari, Karim; Souissi, Nizar

2015-01-01

The aim of the present study was to examine whether listening to music during warming-up might influence short-term maximal performance (STMP), cognitive anxiety, self-confidence, and enjoyment during Ramadan, and whether these affects might predict STMP. Nine male physical education students (age: 21 ± 1.1 years; height: 1.8 ± 0.04 m; body mass: 83 ± 5 kg) volunteered to participate in the present study. A within-subjects design consisted of four experimental sessions: Two sessions occurred one week before Ramadan and two others took place during Ramadan. They were scheduled at 5 p.m. and were conducted as follows: After a 10-minute warm-up either with or without listening to music, each participant performed a 5-m multiple shuttle run test, after which he was asked to answer items intended to assess his affective state during the experimental task. Our findings revealed that STMP was lower during Ramadan than before Ramadan in the no-music condition. Additionally, it was found that STMP was higher in the music condition than in the no-music condition during Ramadan, and that STMP measured before Ramadan did not differ from that measured during Ramadan in the music condition. Regarding affects, the findings revealed that enjoyment was lower during Ramadan than before Ramadan in the music condition, and that cognitive anxiety was lower in the music condition than in the no-music condition before Ramadan. Self-confidence was not influenced by the experimental conditions. This study showed that listening to music during warming-up not only would be beneficial for STMP in Ramadan fasters, but also would counteract the negative effects of Ramadan observance on STMP.

Acute survivorship of the deep-sea coral Lophelia pertusa from the Gulf of Mexico under acidification, warming, and deoxygenation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lunden, Jay J.; McNicholl, Conall G.; Sears, Christopher R.; Morrison, Cheryl L.; Cordes, Erik E.

2014-01-01

Changing global climate due to anthropogenic emissions of CO2 are driving rapid changes in the physical and chemical environment of the oceans via warming, deoxygenation, and acidification. These changes may threaten the persistence of species and populations across a range of latitudes and depths, including species that support diverse biological communities that in turn provide ecological stability and support commercial interests. Worldwide, but particularly in the North Atlantic and deep Gulf of Mexico, Lophelia pertusa forms expansive reefs that support biological communities whose diversity rivals that of tropical coral reefs. In this study, L. pertusa colonies were collected from the Viosca Knoll region in the Gulf of Mexico (390 to 450 m depth), genotyped using microsatellite markers, and exposed to a series of treatments testing survivorship responses to acidification, warming, and deoxygenation. All coral nubbins survived the acidification scenarios tested, between pH of 7.67 and 7.90 and aragonite saturation states of 0.92 and 1.47. However, net calcification generally declined with respect to pH, though a disparate response was evident where select individuals net calcified and others exhibited net dissolution near a saturation state of 1. Warming and deoxygenation both had negative effects on survivorship, with up to 100% mortality observed at temperatures above 14°C and oxygen concentrations of approximately 1.5 ml· l−1. These results suggest that, over the short-term, climate change and OA may negatively impact L. pertusa in the Gulf of Mexico, though the potential for acclimation and the effects of genetic background should be considered in future research.

Could both vitamin D and geomagnetic activity impact serum levels of soluble cell adhesion molecules in young men?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bleizgys, Andrius; Šapoka, Virginijus

2016-07-01

Vitamin D might have a role in diminishing endothelial dysfunction (ED). The initial aim was to test the hypothesis of reciprocity between levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and levels of soluble endothelial cell adhesion molecules (CAMs) that could serve as biomarkers of ED. Randomly selected men of age 20-39 were examined at February or March (cold season) and reexamined at August or September (warm season). Some lifestyle and anthropometrical data were recorded. Laboratory measurements, including those for serum levels of soluble CAMs—sICAM-1, sVCAM-1, sE-selectin and sP-selectin—were also performed. As some of the results were rather unexpected, indices of geomagnetic activity (GMA), obtained from the online database, were included in further analysis as a confounder. In 2012-2013, 130 men were examined in cold season, and 125 of them were reexamined in warm season. 25(OH)D levels were found to be significantly negatively associated with sVCAM-1 levels ( β = -0.15, p = 0.043 in warm season; β = -0.19, p = 0.007 for changes). Levels of sVCAM-1 and sICAM-1 from the same seasons were notably different between years and have changed in an opposite manner. Soluble P-selectin levels were higher at warm season in both years. GMA was positively associated with sVCAM-1 ( β = 0.17, p = 0.039 in cold season; β = 0.22, p = 0.002 for changes) and negatively with sICAM-1 ( β = -0.30. p < 0.001 in cold season) levels. Vitamin D might play a role in diminishing sVCAM-1 levels. Levels of sVCAM-1 and sICAM-1 were associated with the GMA; this implies a need for further research.

Climate warming is predicted to reduce omega-3, long-chain, polyunsaturated fatty acid production in phytoplankton.

PubMed

Hixson, Stefanie M; Arts, Michael T

2016-08-01

Phytoplankton are the main source of energy and omega-3 (n-3) long-chain essential fatty acids (EFA) in aquatic ecosystems. Their growth and biochemical composition are affected by surrounding environmental conditions, including temperature, which continues to increase as a result of climate warming. Increasing water temperatures may negatively impact the production of EFA by phytoplankton through the process of homeoviscous adaptation. To investigate this, we conducted an exploratory data synthesis with 952 fatty acid (FA) profiles from six major groups of marine and freshwater phytoplankton. Temperature was strongly correlated with a decrease in the proportion of n-3 long-chain polyunsaturated FA (LC-PUFA) and an increase in omega-6 FA and saturated FA. Based on linear regression models, we predict that global n-3 LC-PUFA production will be reduced by 8.2% for eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and 27.8% for docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) with an increase in water temperature of 2.5 °C. Using a previously published estimate of the global production of EPA by diatoms, which contribute to most of the world's supply of EPA, we predict a loss of 14.2 Mt of EPA annually as a result of ocean warming. The n-3 LC-PUFA are vitally important for an array of key physiological functions in aquatic and terrestrial organisms, and these FA are mainly produced by phytoplankton. Therefore, reduced production of these EFA, as a consequence of climate warming, is predicted to negatively affect species that depend on these compounds for optimum physiological function. Such profound changes in the biochemical composition of phytoplankton cell membranes can lead to cascading effects throughout the world's ecosystems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tree range expansion in eastern North America fails to keep pace with climate warming at northern range limits.

PubMed

Sittaro, Fabian; Paquette, Alain; Messier, Christian; Nock, Charles A

2017-08-01

Rising global temperatures are suggested to be drivers of shifts in tree species ranges. The resulting changes in community composition may negatively impact forest ecosystem function. However, long-term shifts in tree species ranges remain poorly documented. We test for shifts in the northern range limits of 16 temperate tree species in Quebec, Canada, using forest inventory data spanning three decades, 15° of longitude and 7° of latitude. Range shifts were correlated with climate warming and dispersal traits to understand potential mechanisms underlying changes. Shifts were calculated as the change in the 95th percentile of latitudinal occurrence between two inventory periods (1970-1978, 2000-2012) and for two life stages: saplings and adults. We also examined sapling and adult range offsets within each inventory, and changes in the offset through time. Tree species ranges shifted predominantly northward, although species responses varied. As expected shifts were greater for tree saplings, 0.34 km yr -1 , than for adults, 0.13 km yr -1 . Range limits were generally further north for adults compared to saplings, but the difference diminished through time, consistent with patterns observed for range shifts within each life stage. This suggests caution should be exercised when interpreting geographic range offsets between life stages as evidence of range shifts in the absence of temporal data. Species latitudinal velocities were on average <50% of the velocity required to equal the spatial velocity of climate change and were mostly unrelated to dispersal traits. Finally, our results add to the body of evidence suggesting tree species are mostly limited in their capacity to track climate warming, supporting concerns that warming will negatively impact the functioning of forest ecosystems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation of the 2007 WHO Guideline to Improve the Diagnosis of Tuberculosis in Ambulatory HIV-Positive Adults

PubMed Central

Koole, Olivier; Thai, Sopheak; Khun, Kim Eam; Pe, Reaksmey; van Griensven, Johan; Apers, Ludwig; Van den Ende, Jef; Mao, Tan Eang; Lynen, Lutgarde

2011-01-01

Background In 2007 WHO issued a guideline to improve the diagnosis of smear-negative and extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) in HIV-positive patients. This guideline relies heavily on the acceptance of HIV-testing and availability of chest X-rays. Methods and Findings Cohort study of TB suspects in four tuberculosis (TB) clinics in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. We assessed the operational performance of the guideline, the incremental yield of investigations, and the diagnostic accuracy for smear-negative tuberculosis in HIV-positive patients using culture positivity as reference standard. 1,147 (68.9%) of 1,665 TB suspects presented with unknown HIV status, 1,124 (98.0%) agreed to be tested, 79 (7.0%) were HIV-positive. Compliance with the guideline for chest X-rays and sputum culture requests was 97.1% and 98.3% respectively. Only 35 of 79 HIV-positive patients (44.3%) with a chest X-ray suggestive of TB started TB treatment within 10 days. 105 of 442 HIV-positive TB suspects started TB treatment (56.2% smear-negative pulmonary TB (PTB), 28.6% smear-positive PTB, 15.2% EPTB). The median time to TB treatment initiation was 5 days (IQR: 2–13 days), ranging from 2 days (IQR: 1–11.5 days) for EPTB, over 2.5 days (IQR: 1–4 days) for smear-positive PTB to 9 days (IQR: 3–17 days) for smear-negative PTB. Among the 34 smear-negative TB patients with a confirmed diagnosis, the incremental yield of chest X-ray, clinical suspicion or abdominal ultrasound, and culture was 41.2%, 17.6% and 41.2% respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the algorithm to diagnose smear-negative TB in HIV-positive TB suspects was 58.8% (95%CI: 42.2%–73.6%) and 79.4% (95%CI: 74.8%–82.4%) respectively. Conclusions Pending point-of-care rapid diagnostic tests for TB disease, diagnostic algorithms are needed. The diagnostic accuracy of the 2007 WHO guideline to diagnose smear-negative TB is acceptable. There is, however, reluctance to comply with the guideline in terms of immediate treatment initiation. PMID:21494694

Evaluation of the 2007 WHO guideline to improve the diagnosis of tuberculosis in ambulatory HIV-positive adults.

PubMed

Koole, Olivier; Thai, Sopheak; Khun, Kim Eam; Pe, Reaksmey; van Griensven, Johan; Apers, Ludwig; Van den Ende, Jef; Mao, Tan Eang; Lynen, Lutgarde

2011-04-06

In 2007 WHO issued a guideline to improve the diagnosis of smear-negative and extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) in HIV-positive patients. This guideline relies heavily on the acceptance of HIV-testing and availability of chest X-rays. Cohort study of TB suspects in four tuberculosis (TB) clinics in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. We assessed the operational performance of the guideline, the incremental yield of investigations, and the diagnostic accuracy for smear-negative tuberculosis in HIV-positive patients using culture positivity as reference standard. 1,147 (68.9%) of 1,665 TB suspects presented with unknown HIV status, 1,124 (98.0%) agreed to be tested, 79 (7.0%) were HIV-positive. Compliance with the guideline for chest X-rays and sputum culture requests was 97.1% and 98.3% respectively. Only 35 of 79 HIV-positive patients (44.3%) with a chest X-ray suggestive of TB started TB treatment within 10 days. 105 of 442 HIV-positive TB suspects started TB treatment (56.2% smear-negative pulmonary TB (PTB), 28.6% smear-positive PTB, 15.2% EPTB). The median time to TB treatment initiation was 5 days (IQR: 2-13 days), ranging from 2 days (IQR: 1-11.5 days) for EPTB, over 2.5 days (IQR: 1-4 days) for smear-positive PTB to 9 days (IQR: 3-17 days) for smear-negative PTB. Among the 34 smear-negative TB patients with a confirmed diagnosis, the incremental yield of chest X-ray, clinical suspicion or abdominal ultrasound, and culture was 41.2%, 17.6% and 41.2% respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the algorithm to diagnose smear-negative TB in HIV-positive TB suspects was 58.8% (95%CI: 42.2%-73.6%) and 79.4% (95%CI: 74.8%-82.4%) respectively. Pending point-of-care rapid diagnostic tests for TB disease, diagnostic algorithms are needed. The diagnostic accuracy of the 2007 WHO guideline to diagnose smear-negative TB is acceptable. There is, however, reluctance to comply with the guideline in terms of immediate treatment initiation.

Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kueppers, Lara M.; Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Moyes, Andrew B.; Germino, Matthew; de Valpine, Perry; Torn, Margaret S.; Mitton, Jeffry B.

2017-01-01

Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, but raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season-average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first-year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth-year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow-free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low-elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high-elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low-provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High- and low-elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high-provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower sensitivity of limber pine to warming indicates a potential for this species to become more important in subalpine forest communities in the coming centuries.

Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest.

PubMed

Kueppers, Lara M; Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Moyes, Andrew B; Germino, Matthew J; de Valpine, Perry; Torn, Margaret S; Mitton, Jeffry B

2017-06-01

Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, but raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season-average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first-year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth-year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow-free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low-elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high-elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low-provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High- and low-elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high-provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower sensitivity of limber pine to warming indicates a potential for this species to become more important in subalpine forest communities in the coming centuries. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of Ambient Temperature and Forced-air Warming on Intraoperative Core Temperature: A Factorial Randomized Trial.

PubMed

Pei, Lijian; Huang, Yuguang; Xu, Yiyao; Zheng, Yongchang; Sang, Xinting; Zhou, Xiaoyun; Li, Shanqing; Mao, Guangmei; Mascha, Edward J; Sessler, Daniel I

2018-05-01

The effect of ambient temperature, with and without active warming, on intraoperative core temperature remains poorly characterized. The authors determined the effect of ambient temperature on core temperature changes with and without forced-air warming. In this unblinded three-by-two factorial trial, 292 adults were randomized to ambient temperatures 19°, 21°, or 23°C, and to passive insulation or forced-air warming. The primary outcome was core temperature change between 1 and 3 h after induction. Linear mixed-effects models assessed the effects of ambient temperature, warming method, and their interaction. A 1°C increase in ambient temperature attenuated the negative slope of core temperature change 1 to 3 h after anesthesia induction by 0.03 (98.3% CI, 0.01 to 0.06) °Ccore/(h°Cambient) (P < 0.001), for patients who received passive insulation, but not for those warmed with forced-air (-0.01 [98.3% CI, -0.03 to 0.01] °Ccore/[h°Cambient]; P = 0.40). Final core temperature at the end of surgery increased 0.13°C (98.3% CI, 0.07 to 0.20; P < 0.01) per degree increase in ambient temperature with passive insulation, but was unaffected by ambient temperature during forced-air warming (0.02 [98.3% CI, -0.04 to 0.09] °Ccore/°Cambient; P = 0.40). After an average of 3.4 h of surgery, core temperature was 36.3° ± 0.5°C in each of the forced-air groups, and ranged from 35.6° to 36.1°C in passively insulated patients. Ambient intraoperative temperature has a negligible effect on core temperature when patients are warmed with forced air. The effect is larger when patients are passively insulated, but the magnitude remains small. Ambient temperature can thus be set to comfortable levels for staff in patients who are actively warmed.

Warming and drought reduce temperature sensitivity of nitrogen transformations.

PubMed

Novem Auyeung, Dolaporn S; Suseela, Vidya; Dukes, Jeffrey S

2013-02-01

Shifts in nitrogen (N) mineralization and nitrification rates due to global changes can influence nutrient availability, which can affect terrestrial productivity and climate change feedbacks. While many single-factor studies have examined the effects of environmental changes on N mineralization and nitrification, few have examined these effects in a multifactor context or recorded how these effects vary seasonally. In an old-field ecosystem in Massachusetts, USA, we investigated the combined effects of four levels of warming (up to 4 °C) and three levels of precipitation (drought, ambient, and wet) on net N mineralization, net nitrification, and potential nitrification. We also examined the treatment effects on the temperature sensitivity of net N mineralization and net nitrification and on the ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization. During winter, freeze-thaw events, snow depth, and soil freezing depth explained little of the variation in net nitrification and N mineralization rates among treatments. During two years of treatments, warming and altered precipitation rarely influenced the rates of N cycling, and there was no evidence of a seasonal pattern in the responses. In contrast, warming and drought dramatically decreased the apparent Q10 of net N mineralization and net nitrification, and the warming-induced decrease in apparent Q10 was more pronounced in ambient and wet treatments than the drought treatment. The ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization varied over time and was sensitive to the interactive effects of warming and altered precipitation. Although many studies have found that warming tends to accelerate N cycling, our results suggest that warming can have little to no effect on N cycling in some ecosystems. Thus, ecosystem models that assume that warming will consistently increase N mineralization rates and inputs of plant-available N may overestimate the increase in terrestrial productivity and the magnitude of an important negative feedback to climate change. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Responses of arthropod populations to warming depend on latitude: evidence from urban heat islands.

PubMed

Youngsteadt, Elsa; Ernst, Andrew F; Dunn, Robert R; Frank, Steven D

2017-04-01

Biological effects of climate change are expected to vary geographically, with a strong signature of latitude. For ectothermic animals, there is systematic latitudinal variation in the relationship between climate and thermal performance curves, which describe the relationship between temperature and an organism's fitness. Here, we ask whether these documented latitudinal patterns can be generalized to predict arthropod responses to warming across mid- and high temperate latitudes, for taxa whose thermal physiology has not been measured. To address this question, we used a novel natural experiment consisting of a series of urban warming gradients at different latitudes. Specifically, we sampled arthropods from a single common street tree species across temperature gradients in four US cities, located from 35.8 to 42.4° latitude. We captured 6746 arthropods in 34 families from 111 sites that varied in summer average temperature by 1.7-3.4 °C within each city. Arthropod responses to warming within each city were characterized as Poisson regression coefficients describing change in abundance per °C for each family. Family responses in the two midlatitude cities were heterogeneous, including significantly negative and positive effects, while those in high-latitude cities varied no more than expected by chance within each city. We expected high-latitude taxa to increase in abundance with warming, and they did so in one of the two high-latitude cities; in the other, Queens (New York City), most taxa declined with warming, perhaps due to habitat loss that was correlated with warming in this city. With the exception of Queens, patterns of family responses to warming were consistent with predictions based on known latitudinal patterns in arthropod physiology relative to regional climate. Heterogeneous responses in midlatitudes may be ecologically disruptive if interacting taxa respond oppositely to warming. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kueppers, Lara M.; Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina

Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, butmore » raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season-average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first-year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth-year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow-free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low-elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high-elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low-provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High- and low-elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high-provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower sensitivity of limber pine to warming indicates a potential for this species to become more important in subalpine forest communities in the coming centuries.« less

Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest

DOE PAGES

Kueppers, Lara M.; Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; ...

2016-12-15

Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, butmore » raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season-average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first-year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth-year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow-free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low-elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high-elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low-provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High- and low-elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high-provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower sensitivity of limber pine to warming indicates a potential for this species to become more important in subalpine forest communities in the coming centuries.« less

Attributing Contributions of Climate Feedbacks to the Seasonal Cycle of Surface Warming due to CO2 Increase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sejas, S.; Cai, M.

2012-12-01

Surfing warming due to CO2 doubling is a robust feature of coupled general circulation models (GCM), as noted in the IPCC AR4 assessment report. In this study, the contributions of different climate feedbacks to the magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonality of the surface warming is examined using data from NCAR's CCSM4. In particular, a focus is placed on polar regions to see which feedbacks play a role in polar amplification and its seasonal pattern. A new climate feedback analysis method is used to isolate the surface warming or cooling contributions of both radiative and non-radiative (dynamical) climate feedbacks to the total (actual) surface temperature change given by the CCSM4. These contributions (or partial surface temperature changes) are additive and their total is approximately equal to the actual surface temperature change. What is found is that the effects of CO2 doubling alone warms the surface throughout with a maximum in polar regions, which indicates the CO2 forcing alone has a degree of polar warming amplification. Water vapor feedback is a positive feedback throughout but is most responsible for the surface warming found in the tropics. Polar warming amplification is found to be strongest away from summer (especially in NH), which is primarily caused by a positive feedback due to cloud feedbacks but with the surface temperature change due to the CO2 forcing alone and the ocean dynamics and storage feedback also playing an important role. Contrary to popular belief, surface albedo feedback (SAF) does not account for much of the polar amplification. SAF tries to amplify polar warming, but in summer. No major polar amplification is seen in summer for the actual surface temperature, so SAF is not the feedback responsible for polar amplification. This is actually a consequence of the ocean dynamics and storage feedback, which negates the effects of SAF to a large degree.

Changes in the Mechanisms Causing Rapid Drought Cessation in the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, Justin T.; Knapp, Paul A.; Ortegren, Jason T.; Ficklin, Darren L.; Soulé, Peter T.

2017-12-01

The synoptic processes that end droughts are poorly understood, yet have significant climatological implications. Here we examined the spatiotemporal patterns of rapid drought cessation (RDC) in the southeastern United States during the1979-2013 warm season (April-November) for three storm types: Frontal, Tropical, and Air mass. We defined RDC as a 1 month shift in soil moisture sufficient to alleviate an existing drought. We found that 73% of all warm-season droughts were ended by RDC events and the three storm-type groups ended droughts over similar spatial areas. Frontal storms were the most frequent mechanism for RDC events, yet their occurrences significantly decreased and were negatively related to increases in Northern Hemisphere air temperatures. Projected future warming in the Northern Hemisphere suggests a continued decline in the frequency and relative contribution of Frontal storms as RDC events, potentially influencing the timing and spatial scale of drought cessation in the southeastern U.S.

Tropical warming and the dynamics of endangered primates.

PubMed

Wiederholt, Ruscena; Post, Eric

2010-04-23

Many primate species are severely threatened, but little is known about the effects of global warming and the associated intensification of El Niño events on primate populations. Here, we document the influences of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) and hemispheric climatic variability on the population dynamics of four genera of ateline (neotropical, large-bodied) primates. All ateline genera experienced either an immediate or a lagged negative effect of El Niño events. ENSO events were also found to influence primate resource levels through neotropical arboreal phenology. Furthermore, frugivorous primates showed a high degree of interspecific population synchrony over large scales across Central and South America attributable to the recent trends in large-scale climate. These results highlight the role of large-scale climatic variation and trends in ateline primate population dynamics, and emphasize that global warming could pose additional threats to the persistence of multiple species of endangered primates.

Climate warming: a loss of variation in populations can accompany reproductive shifts.

PubMed

Massot, Manuel; Legendre, Stéphane; Fédérici, Pierre; Clobert, Jean

2017-09-01

The most documented response of organisms to climate warming is a change in the average timing of seasonal activities (phenology). Although we know that these average changes can differ among species and populations, we do not know whether climate warming impacts within-population variation in phenology. Using data from five study sites collected during a 13-year survey, we found that the increase in spring temperatures is associated with a reproductive advance of 10 days in natural populations of common lizards (Zootoca vivipara). Interestingly, we show a correlated loss of variation in reproductive dates within populations. As illustrated by a model, this shortening of the reproductive period can have significant negative effects on population dynamics. Consequently, we encourage tests in other species to assess the generality of decreased variation in phenological responses to climate change. © 2017 The Authors Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Optimizing Early Rule-Out Strategies for Acute Myocardial Infarction: Utility of 1-Hour Copeptin.

PubMed

Hillinger, Petra; Twerenbold, Raphael; Jaeger, Cedric; Wildi, Karin; Reichlin, Tobias; Rubini Gimenez, Maria; Engels, Ulrike; Miró, Oscar; Boeddinghaus, Jasper; Puelacher, Christian; Nestelberger, Thomas; Röthlisberger, Michèle; Ernst, Susanne; Rentsch, Katharina; Mueller, Christian

2015-12-01

Combined testing of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and copeptin at presentation provides a very high-although still imperfect-negative predictive value (NPV) for the early rule-out of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We hypothesized that a second copeptin measurement at 1 h might further increase the NPV. In a prospective diagnostic multicenter study, we measured hs-cTnT and copeptin concentrations at presentation and at 1 h in 1439 unselected patients presenting to the emergency department with suspected AMI. The final diagnosis was adjudicated by 2 independent cardiologists blinded to copeptin concentrations. We investigated the incremental value of 1-h copeptin in the rule-out setting (0-h hs-cTnT negative and 0-h copeptin negative) and the intermediate-risk setting (0-h hs-cTnT negative and 0-h copeptin positive). The adjudicated diagnosis was AMI in 267 patients (18.6%). For measurements obtained at presentation, the NPV in the rule-out setting was 98.6% (95% CI, 97.4%-99.3%). Whereas 1-h copeptin did not increase the NPV significantly, 1-h hs-cTnT did, to 99.6% (95% CI, 98.7%-99.9%, P = 0.008). Similarly, in the intermediate-risk setting (NPV 92.8%, 95% CI, 88.7%-95.8%), 1-h copeptin did not significantly increase the NPV (P = 0.751), but 1-h hs-cTnT did, to 98.6 (95% CI, 96%-99.7%, P < 0.001). One-hour copeptin increased neither the safety of the rule-out process nor the NPV in the intermediate-risk setting. In contrast, the incremental value of 1-h hs-cTnT was substantial in both settings. ClinicalTrials.gov/NCT00470587. © 2015 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

Depressive Symptoms and Salivary Telomere Length in a Probability Sample of Middle-Aged and Older Adults.

PubMed

Whisman, Mark A; Richardson, Emily D

To examine the association between depressive symptoms and salivary telomere length in a probability sample of middle-aged and older adults, and to evaluate age and sex as potential moderators of this association and test whether this association was incremental to potential confounds. Participants were 3,609 individuals from the 2008 wave of the Health and Retirement Study. Telomere length assays were performed using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction on DNA extracted from saliva samples. Depressive symptoms were assessed via interview, and health and lifestyle factors, traumatic life events, and neuroticism were assessed via self-report. Regression analyses were conducted to examine the associations between predictor variables and salivary telomere length. After adjusting for demographics, depressive symptoms were negatively associated with salivary telomere length (b = -.003; p = .014). Furthermore, this association was moderated by sex (b = .005; p = .011), such that depressive symptoms were significantly and negatively associated with salivary telomere length for men (b = - .006; p < .001) but not for women (b = - .001; p = .644). The negative association between depressive symptoms and salivary telomere length in men remained statistically significant after additionally adjusting for cigarette smoking, body mass index, chronic health conditions, childhood and lifetime exposure to traumatic life events, and neuroticism. Higher levels of depressive symptoms were associated with shorter salivary telomeres in men, and this association was incremental to several potential confounds. Shortened telomeres may help account for the association between depression and poor physical health and mortality.

The Contribution to Arctic Climate Change from Countries in the Arctic Council

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, T.; MacCracken, M. C.

2013-12-01

The conventional accounting frameworks for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used today, established under the Kyoto Protocol 25 years ago, exclude short lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), and do not include regional effects on the climate. However, advances in climate science now suggest that mitigation of SLCPs can reduce up to 50% of global warming by 2050. It has also become apparent that regions such as the Arctic have experienced a much greater degree of anthropogenic warming than the globe as a whole, and that efforts to slow this warming could benefit the larger effort to slow climate change around the globe. A draft standard for life cycle assessment (LCA), LEO-SCS-002, being developed under the American National Standards Institute process, has integrated the most recent climate science into a unified framework to account for emissions of all radiatively significant GHGs and SLCPs. This framework recognizes four distinct impacts to the oceans and climate caused by GHGs and SLCPs: Global Climate Change; Arctic Climate Change; Ocean Acidification; and Ocean Warming. The accounting for Arctic Climate Change, the subject of this poster, is based upon the Absolute Regional Temperature Potential, which considers the incremental change to the Arctic surface temperature resulting from an emission of a GHG or SLCP. Results are evaluated using units of mass of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), which can be used by a broad array of stakeholders, including scientists, consumers, policy makers, and NGOs. This poster considers the contribution to Arctic Climate Change from emissions of GHGs and SLCPs from the eight member countries of the Arctic Council; the United States, Canada, Russia, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden. Of this group of countries, the United States was the largest contributor to Arctic Climate Change in 2011, emitting 9600 MMT CO2e. This includes a gross warming of 11200 MMT CO2e (caused by GHGs, black and brown carbon, and warming effects of nitrogen oxides), which is offset by -1600 MMT CO2e in cooling (caused by organic carbon aerosols, sulfate aerosols, and cooling effects of nitrogen oxides). Russia, Canada, and all the Nordic Countries emitted 5300, 1100, and 300 MMT CO2e (net) in 2011, respectively. Emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and carbonaceous aerosols were the largest contributors overall, though the significance of each varied by country. This work incorporates the research and methods developed by D. Shindell, G. Faluvegi, M. Jacobson, A. Hu, V. Ramanathan, and T. Bond.

Spatial Patterns of Variability in Antarctic Surface Temperature: Connections to the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode and the Southern Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwok, Ron; Comiso, Josefino C.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The 17-year (1982-1998) trend in surface temperature shows a general cooling over the Antarctic continent, warming of the sea ice zone, with moderate changes over the oceans. Warming of the peripheral seas is associated with negative trends in the regional sea ice extent. Effects of the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) and the extrapolar Southern Oscillation (SO) on surface temperature are quantified through regression analysis. Positive polarities of the SAM are associated with cold anomalies over most of Antarctica, with the most notable exception of the Antarctic Peninsula. Positive temperature anomalies and ice edge retreat in the Pacific sector are associated with El Nino episodes. Over the past two decades, the drift towards high polarity in the SAM and negative polarity in the SO indices couple to produce a spatial pattern with warmer temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula and peripheral seas, and cooler temperatures over much of East Antarctica.

Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan

The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. Here, a proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Nino/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Nino3.4 SSTs thatmore » have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.« less

Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

DOE PAGES

Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan

2016-06-02

The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. Here, a proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Nino/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Nino3.4 SSTs thatmore » have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.« less

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Modulates the Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice Decline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Fei; Orsolini, Yvan J.; Wang, Huijun; Gao, Yongqi; He, Shengping

2018-03-01

The Arctic sea ice cover has been rapidly declining in the last two decades, concurrent with a shift in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) to its warm phase around 1996/1997. Here we use both observations and model simulations to investigate the modulation of the atmospheric impacts of the decreased sea ice cover in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic (AASIC) by the AMO. We find that the AASIC loss during a cold AMO phase induces increased Ural blocking activity, a southeastward-extended snowpack, and a cold continent anomaly over Eurasia in December through northerly cold air advection and moisture transport from the Arctic. The increased Ural blocking activity and more extended Eurasian snowpack strengthen the upward propagation of planetary waves over the Siberian-Pacific sector in the lower stratosphere and hence lead to a weakened stratospheric polar vortex and a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) phase at the surface in February. However, corresponding to the AASIC loss during a warm AMO phase, one finds more widespread warming over the Arctic and a reduced snowpack over Northern Eurasia in December. The stratosphere-troposphere coupling is suppressed in early winter and no negative AO anomaly is found in February. We suggest that the cold AMO phase is important to regulate the atmospheric response to AASIC decline, and our study provides insight to the ongoing debate on the connection between the Arctic sea ice and the AO.

Emiliania huxleyi increases calcification but not expression of calcification-related genes in long-term exposure to elevated temperature and pCO2

PubMed Central

Benner, Ina; Diner, Rachel E.; Lefebvre, Stephane C.; Li, Dian; Komada, Tomoko; Carpenter, Edward J.; Stillman, Jonathon H.

2013-01-01

Increased atmospheric pCO2 is expected to render future oceans warmer and more acidic than they are at present. Calcifying organisms such as coccolithophores that fix and export carbon into the deep sea provide feedbacks to increasing atmospheric pCO2. Acclimation experiments suggest negative effects of warming and acidification on coccolithophore calcification, but the ability of these organisms to adapt to future environmental conditions is not well understood. Here, we tested the combined effect of pCO2 and temperature on the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi over more than 700 generations. Cells increased inorganic carbon content and calcification rate under warm and acidified conditions compared with ambient conditions, whereas organic carbon content and primary production did not show any change. In contrast to findings from short-term experiments, our results suggest that long-term acclimation or adaptation could change, or even reverse, negative calcification responses in E. huxleyi and its feedback to the global carbon cycle. Genome-wide profiles of gene expression using RNA-seq revealed that genes thought to be essential for calcification are not those that are most strongly differentially expressed under long-term exposure to future ocean conditions. Rather, differentially expressed genes observed here represent new targets to study responses to ocean acidification and warming. PMID:23980248

Seasonal exposure to drought and air warming affects soil Collembola and mites.

PubMed

Xu, Guo-Liang; Kuster, Thomas M; Günthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S; Dobbertin, Matthias; Li, Mai-He

2012-01-01

Global environmental changes affect not only the aboveground but also the belowground components of ecosystems. The effects of seasonal drought and air warming on the genus level richness of Collembola, and on the abundance and biomass of the community of Collembola and mites were studied in an acidic and a calcareous forest soil in a model oak-ecosystem experiment (the Querco experiment) at the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL in Birmensdorf. The experiment included four climate treatments: control, drought with a 60% reduction in rainfall, air warming with a seasonal temperature increase of 1.4 °C, and air warming + drought. Soil water content was greatly reduced by drought. Soil surface temperature was slightly increased by both the air warming and the drought treatment. Soil mesofauna samples were taken at the end of the first experimental year. Drought was found to increase the abundance of the microarthropod fauna, but reduce the biomass of the community. The percentage of small mites (body length ≤ 0.20 mm) increased, but the percentage of large mites (body length >0.40 mm) decreased under drought. Air warming had only minor effects on the fauna. All climate treatments significantly reduced the richness of Collembola and the biomass of Collembola and mites in acidic soil, but not in calcareous soil. Drought appeared to have a negative impact on soil microarthropod fauna, but the effects of climate change on soil fauna may vary with the soil type.

Seasonal Exposure to Drought and Air Warming Affects Soil Collembola and Mites

PubMed Central

Xu, Guo-Liang; Kuster, Thomas M.; Günthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S.; Dobbertin, Matthias; Li, Mai-He

2012-01-01

Global environmental changes affect not only the aboveground but also the belowground components of ecosystems. The effects of seasonal drought and air warming on the genus level richness of Collembola, and on the abundance and biomass of the community of Collembola and mites were studied in an acidic and a calcareous forest soil in a model oak-ecosystem experiment (the Querco experiment) at the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL in Birmensdorf. The experiment included four climate treatments: control, drought with a 60% reduction in rainfall, air warming with a seasonal temperature increase of 1.4°C, and air warming + drought. Soil water content was greatly reduced by drought. Soil surface temperature was slightly increased by both the air warming and the drought treatment. Soil mesofauna samples were taken at the end of the first experimental year. Drought was found to increase the abundance of the microarthropod fauna, but reduce the biomass of the community. The percentage of small mites (body length 0.20 mm) increased, but the percentage of large mites (body length >0.40 mm) decreased under drought. Air warming had only minor effects on the fauna. All climate treatments significantly reduced the richness of Collembola and the biomass of Collembola and mites in acidic soil, but not in calcareous soil. Drought appeared to have a negative impact on soil microarthropod fauna, but the effects of climate change on soil fauna may vary with the soil type. PMID:22905210

Contrasting growth responses of dominant peatland plants to warming and vegetation composition.

PubMed

Walker, Tom N; Ward, Susan E; Ostle, Nicholas J; Bardgett, Richard D

2015-05-01

There is growing recognition that changes in vegetation composition can strongly influence peatland carbon cycling, with potential feedbacks to future climate. Nevertheless, despite accelerated climate and vegetation change in this ecosystem, the growth responses of peatland plant species to combined warming and vegetation change are unknown. Here, we used a field warming and vegetation removal experiment to test the hypothesis that dominant species from the three plant functional types present (dwarf-shrubs: Calluna vulgaris; graminoids: Eriophorum vaginatum; bryophytes: Sphagnum capillifolium) contrast in their growth responses to warming and the presence or absence of other plant functional types. Warming was accomplished using open top chambers, which raised air temperature by approximately 0.35 °C, and we measured air and soil microclimate as potential mechanisms through which both experimental factors could influence growth. We found that only Calluna growth increased with experimental warming (by 20%), whereas the presence of dwarf-shrubs and bryophytes increased growth of Sphagnum (46%) and Eriophorum (20%), respectively. Sphagnum growth was also negatively related to soil temperature, which was lower when dwarf-shrubs were present. Dwarf-shrubs may therefore promote Sphagnum growth by cooling the peat surface. Conversely, the effect of bryophyte presence on Eriophorum growth was not related to any change in microclimate, suggesting other factors play a role. In conclusion, our findings reveal contrasting abiotic and biotic controls over dominant peatland plant growth, suggesting that community composition and carbon cycling could be modified by simultaneous climate and vegetation change.

Impacts of integrated nutrient management on methane emission, global warming potential and carbon storage capacity in rice grown in a northeast India soil.

PubMed

Bharali, Ashmita; Baruah, Kushal Kumar; Baruah, Sunitee Gohain; Bhattacharyya, Pradip

2018-02-01

Rice soil is a source of emission of two major greenhouse gases (methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O)) and a sink of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). The effect of inorganic fertilizers in combination with various organics (cow dung, green manure (Sesbania aculeata) Azolla compost, rice husk) on CH 4 emission, global warming potential, and soil carbon storage along with crop productivity were studied at university farm under field conditions. The experiment was conducted in a randomized block design for 2 years in a monsoon rice (cv. Ranjit) ecosystem (June-November, 2014 and 2015). Combined application of inorganic (NPK) with Sesbania aculeata resulted in high global warming potential (GWP) of 887.4 kg CO 2 ha -1 and low GWP of 540.6 kg CO 2 ha -1 was recorded from inorganic fertilizer applied field. Irrespective of the type of organic amendments, flag leaf photosynthesis of the rice crop increased over NPK application (control). There was an increase in CH 4 emission from the organic amended fields compared to NPK alone. The combined application of NPK and Azolla compost was effective in the buildup of soil carbon (16.93 g kg -1 ) and capacity of soil carbon storage (28.1 Mg C ha -1 ) with high carbon efficiency ratio (16.9). Azolla compost application along with NPK recorded 15.66% higher CH 4 emission with 27.43% yield increment over control. Azolla compost application significantly enhanced carbon storage of soil and improved the yielding ability of grain (6.55 Mg ha -1 ) over other treatments.

Disentangling the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment.

PubMed

Madrigal-González, Jaime; Andivia, Enrique; Zavala, Miguel A; Stoffel, Markus; Calatayud, Joaquín; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan

2018-06-14

Climate change can impair ecosystem functions and services in extensive dry forests worldwide. However, attribution of climate change impacts on tree growth and forest productivity is challenging due to multiple inter-annual patterns of climatic variability associated with atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Moreover, growth responses to rising atmospheric CO 2 , namely carbon fertilization, as well as size ontogenetic changes can obscure the climate change signature as well. Here we apply Structural Equation Models (SEM) to investigate the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment (i.e., extreme in terms of the combination of sandy-unconsolidated soils and climatic aridity). Specifically, we analyzed potential direct and indirect pathways by which different sources of climatic variability (i.e. warming and precipitation trends, the North Atlantic Oscillation, [NAO]; the Mediterranean Oscillation, [MOI]; the Atlantic Mediterranean Oscillation, [AMO]) affect aridity through their control on local climate (in terms of mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation), and subsequently tree productivity, in terms of basal area increments (BAI). Our results support the predominant role of Diameter at Breast Height (DHB) as the main growth driver. In terms of climate, NAO and AMO are the most important drivers of tree growth through their control of aridity (via effects of precipitation and temperature, respectively). Furthermore and contrary to current expectations, our findings also support a net positive role of climate warming on growth over the last 50 years and suggest that impacts of climate warming should be evaluated considering multi-annual and multi-decadal periods of local climate defined by atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Weather conditions and visits to the medical wing of emergency rooms in a metropolitan area during the warm season in Israel: a predictive model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novikov, Ilya; Kalter-Leibovici, Ofra; Chetrit, Angela; Stav, Nir; Epstein, Yoram

2012-01-01

Global climate changes affect health and present new challenges to healthcare systems. The aim of the present study was to analyze the pattern of visits to the medical wing of emergency rooms (ERs) in public hospitals during warm seasons, and to develop a predictive model that will forecast the number of visits to ERs 2 days ahead. Data on daily visits to the ERs of the four largest medical centers in the Tel-Aviv metropolitan area during the warm months of the year (April-October, 2001-2004), the corresponding daily meteorological data, daily electrical power consumption (a surrogate marker for air-conditioning), air-pollution parameters, and calendar information were obtained and used in the analyses. The predictive model employed a time series analysis with transitional Poisson regression. The concise multivariable model was highly accurate ( r 2 = 0.819). The contribution of mean daily temperature was small but significant: an increase of 1°C in ambient temperature was associated with a 1.47% increase in the number of ER visits ( P < 0.001). An increase in electrical power consumption significantly attenuated the effect of weather conditions on ER visits by 4% per 1,000 MWh ( P < 0.001). Higher daily mean SO2 concentrations were associated with a greater number of ER visits (1% per 1 ppb increment; P = 0.017). Calendar data were the main predictors of ER visits ( r 2 = 0.794). The predictive model was highly accurate in forecasting the number of visits to ERs 2 days ahead. The marginal effect of temperature on the number of ER visits can be attributed to behavioral adaptations, including the use of air-conditioning.

Warm-up with a weighted vest improves running performance via leg stiffness and running economy.

PubMed

Barnes, K R; Hopkins, W G; McGuigan, M R; Kilding, A E

2015-01-01

To determine the effects of "strides" with a weighted-vest during a warm-up on endurance performance and its potential neuromuscular and metabolic mediators. A bout of resistance exercise can enhance subsequent high-intensity performance, but little is known about such priming exercise for endurance performance. A crossover with 5-7 days between an experimental and control trial was performed by 11 well-trained distance runners. Each trial was preceded by a warm-up consisting of a 10-min self-paced jog, a 5-min submaximal run to determine running economy, and six 10-s strides with or without a weighted-vest (20% of body mass). After a 10-min recovery period, runners performed a series of jumps to determine leg stiffness and other neuromuscular characteristics, another 5-min submaximal run, and an incremental treadmill test to determine peak running speed. Clinical and non-clinical forms of magnitude-based inference were used to assess outcomes. Correlations and linear regression were used to assess relationships between performance and underlying measures. The weighted-vest condition resulted in a very-large enhancement of peak running speed (2.9%; 90% confidence limits ±0.8%), a moderate increase in leg stiffness (20.4%; ±4.2%) and a large improvement in running economy (6.0%; ±1.6%); there were also small-moderate clear reductions in cardiorespiratory measures. Relationships between change scores showed that changes in leg stiffness could explain all the improvements in performance and economy. Strides with a weighted-vest have a priming effect on leg stiffness and running economy. It is postulated the associated major effect on peak treadmill running speed will translate into enhancement of competitive endurance performance. Copyright © 2013 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Lack of a Long-Term Growth Effect of Annosus Control in Southeastern United States

Treesearch

F. H. Tainter; J. G. Williams; N. J. Hess; S. W. Oak; D. A. Starkey

1989-01-01

An evaluation of basal area increment was made in 1988 of six pine plantations located across the southeastern United States. These plantations had been thinned in 1969-1970 and stumps treated with borax to measure long-term efficacy of annosus root rot control. In the present study, no long-term growth effects were identified. There were neither negative growth...

Youth Attitude Tracking Study II Wave 18 -- Fall 1987

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-08-01

positive and negative aspects. One of the major goals of military advertising is to increase knowledge about the advantages and benefits of military...Educational Benefits Can Be Used ........................... 102 7.4 Incremental Effects of Cash Bonus on Propensity to Enlist in Guard/Reserve... YOUTH ATTITUDE TRACKING STUDY Fall 1987 EXECUTIVE SWNARY Effective recruiting for the military requires reliable and timely recruit market data

Removing the tree-ring width biological trend using expected basal area increment

Treesearch

Franco Biondi; Fares Qeadan

2008-01-01

One of the main elements of dendrochronological standardization is the removal of the biological trend, i.e., the progressive decline of ring width along a cross-sectional radius that is mostly caused by the corresponding increase in stem diameter over time. A very common option for removing this biological trend is to fit a modified negative exponential curve to the...

Alcohol consumption as an incremental factor in health care costs for traffic accident victims: evidence in a medium sized Colombian city.

PubMed

Gómez-Restrepo, Carlos; Gómez-García, María Juliana; Naranjo, Salomé; Rondón, Martín Alonso; Acosta-Hernández, Andrés Leonardo

2014-12-01

Identify the possibility that alcohol consumption represents an incremental factor in healthcare costs of patients involved in traffic accidents. Data of people admitted into three major health institutions from an intermediate city in Colombia was collected. Socio-demographic characteristics, health care costs and alcohol consumption levels by breath alcohol concentration (BrAC) methodology were identified. Generalized linear models were applied to investigate whether alcohol consumption acts as an incremental factor for healthcare costs. The average cost of healthcare was 878 USD. In general, there are differences between health care costs for patients with positive blood alcohol level compared with those who had negative levels. Univariate analysis shows that the average cost of care can be 2.26 times higher (95% CI: 1.20-4.23), and after controlling for patient characteristics, alcohol consumption represents an incremental factor of almost 1.66 times (95% CI: 1.05-2.62). Alcohol is identified as a possible factor associated with the increased use of direct health care resources. The estimates show the need to implement and enhance prevention programs against alcohol consumption among citizens, in order to mitigate the impact that traffic accidents have on their health status. The law enforcement to help reduce driving under the influence of alcoholic beverages could help to diminish the economic and social impacts of this problem. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three-dimensional architecture of macrofibrils in the human scalp hair cortex.

PubMed

Harland, Duane P; Walls, Richard J; Vernon, James A; Dyer, Jolon M; Woods, Joy L; Bell, Fraser

2014-03-01

Human scalp hairs are comprised of a central cortex enveloped by plate-like cuticle cells. The elongate cortex cells of mature fibres are composed primarily of macrofibrils-bundles of hard-keratin intermediate filaments (IFs) chemically cross-linked within a globular protein matrix. In wool, three cell types (ortho-, meso- and paracortex) contain macrofibrils with distinctly different filament arrangements and matrix fractions, but in human hair macrofibril-cell type relationships are less clear. Here we show that hair macrofibrils all have a similar matrix fraction (∼0.4) and are typically composed of a double-twist architecture in which a central IF is surrounded by concentric rings of tangentially-angled IFs. The defining parameter is the incremental angle increase (IF-increment) between IFs of successive rings. Unlike the wool orthocortex, hair double-twist macrofibrils have considerable inter-macrofibril variation in IF increment (0.05-0.35°/nm), and macrofibril size and IF increment are negatively correlated. Correspondingly, angular difference between central and outer-most IFs is up to 40° in small macrofibrils, but only 5-10° in large macrofibrils. Single cells were observed containing mixtures of macrofibrils with different diameters. These new observations advance our understanding of the nano-level and cell-level organisation of human hair, with implications for interpretation of structure with respect the potential roles of cortex cell types in defining the mechanical properties of hair. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Incremental Structured Dictionary Learning for Video Sensor-Based Object Tracking

PubMed Central

Xue, Ming; Yang, Hua; Zheng, Shibao; Zhou, Yi; Yu, Zhenghua

2014-01-01

To tackle robust object tracking for video sensor-based applications, an online discriminative algorithm based on incremental discriminative structured dictionary learning (IDSDL-VT) is presented. In our framework, a discriminative dictionary combining both positive, negative and trivial patches is designed to sparsely represent the overlapped target patches. Then, a local update (LU) strategy is proposed for sparse coefficient learning. To formulate the training and classification process, a multiple linear classifier group based on a K-combined voting (KCV) function is proposed. As the dictionary evolves, the models are also trained to timely adapt the target appearance variation. Qualitative and quantitative evaluations on challenging image sequences compared with state-of-the-art algorithms demonstrate that the proposed tracking algorithm achieves a more favorable performance. We also illustrate its relay application in visual sensor networks. PMID:24549252

Keeping Hawai’i’s forest birds one step ahead of avian diseases in a warming world: a focus on Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge. A case study from the National Conservation and Training Center Structured Decision Making Workshop

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paxton, Eben H.; Burgett, Jeff; McDonald-Fadden, Eve; Bean, Ellen; Atkinson, Carter T.; Ball, Donna; Cole, Colleen; Crampton, Lisa H.; Kraus, Jim; LaPointe, Dennis A.; Mehrhoff, Loyal; Samuel, Michael D.; Brewer, Donna; Converse, Sarah J.; Morey, Steve

2011-01-01

This report is a product of a one-week workshop on using Structured Decision Making to identify and prioritize conservation actions to address the threat of climate change on Hawaii‟s native forest bird community. Specifically, t his report addresses the issue of global warming ‟s likely role in increasing disease prevalence in upper elevation forests of Hawaii, negatively impacting native bird populations susceptible to the disease but currently disease - free because of the cooler temperatures at high elevations. 

Modeling, Analysis and Mitigation of Sub-Synchronous Interactions between Full- and Partial-Scale Voltage-Source Converters and Power Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alawasa, Khaled Mohammad

Voltage-source converters (VSCs) have gained widespread acceptance in modern power systems. The stability and dynamics of power systems involving these devices have recently become salient issues. In the small-signal sense, the dynamics of VSC-based systems is dictated by its incremental output impedance, which is formed by a combination of 'passive' circuit components and 'active' control elements. Control elements such as control parameters, control loops, and control topologies play a significant role in shaping the impedance profile. Depending on the control schemes and strategies used, VSC-based systems can exhibit different incremental impedance dynamics. As the control elements and dynamics are involved in the impedance structure, the frequency-dependent output impedance might have a negative real-part (i.e., a negative resistance). In the grid-connected mode, the negative resistance degrades the system damping and negatively impacts the stability. In high-voltage networks where high-power VSC-based systems are usually employed and where sub-synchronous dynamics usually exist, integrating large VSC-based systems might reduce the overall damping and results in unstable dynamics. The objectives of this thesis are to (1) investigate and analyze the output impedance properties under different control strategies and control functions, (2) identify and characterize the key contributors to the impedance and sub-synchronous damping profiles, and (3) propose mitigation techniques to minimize and eliminate the negative impact associated with integrating VSC-based systems into power systems. Different VSC configurations are considered in this thesis; in particular, the full-scale and partial-scale topologies (doubly fed-induction generators) are addressed. Additionally, the impedance and system damping profiles are studied under two different control strategies: the standard vector control strategy and the recently-developed power synchronization control strategy. Furthermore, this thesis proposes a simple and robust technique for damping the sub-synchronous resonance in a power system.

Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term experimental watershed sites across North America.

PubMed

Creed, Irena F; Spargo, Adam T; Jones, Julia A; Buttle, Jim M; Adams, Mary B; Beall, Fred D; Booth, Eric G; Campbell, John L; Clow, Dave; Elder, Kelly; Green, Mark B; Grimm, Nancy B; Miniat, Chelcy; Ramlal, Patricia; Saha, Amartya; Sebestyen, Stephen; Spittlehouse, Dave; Sterling, Shannon; Williams, Mark W; Winkler, Rita; Yao, Huaxia

2014-10-01

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment's change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period - a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of interannual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to interannual variation in the EI - high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., nonresilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to climate warming than the more diverse mixed forest catchments. © 2014 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Is Polar Amplification Deeper and Stronger than Dynamicists Assume?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheff, J.; Maroon, E.

2017-12-01

In the CMIP multi-model mean under strong future warming, Arctic amplification is confined to the lower troposphere, so that the meridional gradient of warming reverses around 500 mb and the upper troposphere is characterized by strong "tropical amplification" in which warming weakens with increasing latitude. This model-derived pattern of warming maxima in the upper-level tropics and lower-level Arctic has become a canonical assumption driving theories of the large-scale circulation response to climate change. Yet, several lines of evidence and reasoning suggest that Arctic amplification may in fact extend through the entire depth of the troposphere, and/or may be stronger than commonly modeled. These include satellite Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) temperature trends as a function of latitude and vertical level, the recent discovery that the extratropical negative cloud phase feedback in models is largely spurious, and the very strong polar amplification observed in past warm and lukewarm climates. Such a warming pattern, with deep, dominant Arctic amplification, would have very different implications for the circulation than a canonical CMIP-like warming: instead of slightly shifting poleward and strengthening, eddies, jets and cells might shift equatorward and considerably weaken. Indeed, surface winds have been mysteriously weakening ("stilling") at almost all stations over the last half-century or so, there has been no poleward shift in northern hemisphere circulation metrics, and past warm climates' subtropics were apparently quite wet (and their global ocean circulations were weak.) To explore these possibilities more deeply, we examine the y-z structure of warming and circulation changes across a much broader range of models, scenarios and time periods than the CMIP future mean, and use an MSU simulator to compare them to the satellite warming record. Specifically, we examine whether the use of historical (rather than future) forcing, AMIP (rather than CMIP) configuration, individual GCMs, and/or individual ensemble members can better reproduce the structure of the MSU and surface-wind observations. Figure 1 already shows that tropical amplification is absent in the CESM1 historical ensemble (1979-2012). The results of these analyses will guide our future modeling work on these topics.

Effect of static and dynamic muscle stretching as part of warm up procedures on knee joint proprioception and strength.

PubMed

Walsh, Gregory S

2017-10-01

The importance of warm up procedures prior to athletic performance is well established. A common component of such procedures is muscle stretching. There is conflicting evidence regarding the effect of static stretching (SS) as part of warm up procedures on knee joint position sense (KJPS) and the effect of dynamic stretching (DS) on KJPS is currently unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of dynamic and static stretching as part warm up procedures on KJPS and knee extension and flexion strength. This study had a randomised cross-over design and ten healthy adults (20±1years) attended 3 visits during which baseline KJPS, at target angles of 20° and 45°, and knee extension and flexion strength tests were followed by 15min of cycling and either a rest period (CON), SS, or DS and repeat KJPS and strength tests. All participants performed all conditions, one condition per visit. There were warm up×stretching type interactions for KJPS at 20° (p=0.024) and 45° (p=0.018), and knee flexion (p=0.002) and extension (p<0.001) strength. The SS and DS improved KJPS but CON condition did not and SS decreased strength. No change in strength was present for DS or CON. Both SS and DS improve KJPS as part of pre-exercise warm up procedures. However, the negative impact of SS on muscle strength limits the utility of SS before athletic performance. If stretching is to be performed as part of a warm up, DS should be favoured over SS. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nematode community shifts in response to experimental warming and canopy conditions are associated with plant community changes in the temperate-boreal forest ecotone.

PubMed

Thakur, Madhav Prakash; Reich, Peter B; Fisichelli, Nicholas A; Stefanski, Artur; Cesarz, Simone; Dobies, Tomasz; Rich, Roy L; Hobbie, Sarah E; Eisenhauer, Nico

2014-06-01

Global climate warming is one of the key forces driving plant community shifts, such as range shifts of temperate species into boreal forests. As plant community shifts are slow to observe, ecotones, boundaries between two ecosystems, are target areas for providing early evidence of ecological responses to warming. The role of soil fauna is poorly explored in ecotones, although their positive and negative effects on plant species can influence plant community structure. We studied nematode communities in response to experimental warming (ambient, +1.7, +3.4 °C) in soils of closed and open canopy forest in the temperate-boreal ecotone of Minnesota, USA and calculated various established nematode indices. We estimated species-specific coverage of understory herbaceous and shrub plant species from the same experimental plots and tested if changes in the nematode community are associated with plant cover and composition. Individual nematode trophic groups did not differ among warming treatments, but the ratio between microbial-feeding and plant-feeding nematodes increased significantly and consistently with warming in both closed and open canopy areas and at both experimental field sites. The increase in this ratio was positively correlated with total cover of understory plant species, perhaps due to increased predation pressure on soil microorganisms causing higher nutrient availability for plants. Multivariate analyses revealed that temperature treatment, canopy conditions and nematode density consistently shaped understory plant communities across experimental sites. Our findings suggest that warming-induced changes in nematode community structure are associated with shifts in plant community composition and productivity in the temperate-boreal forest ecotones.

Seasonality and growth patterns using isotope sclerochronology in shells of the Pliocene scallop Chesapecten madisonius

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goewert, Ann E.; Surge, Donna

2008-10-01

Growth lines and variation in oxygen and carbon isotope ratios (δ18O and δ13C) in shells of the Pliocene scallop Chesapecten madisonius preserve seasonal chronologies of biological and environmental change. This study evaluated whether (1) prominent growth lines were formed annually, and (2) growth rates estimated using isotope sclerochronology were comparable to rates estimated using visual inspection (measuring the width between external growth lines). We compared both techniques for estimating growth rates and age on three late to mid-Pliocene C. madisonius shells. The first approach located prominent growth lines on the δ18O time series, and differentiated between annual and non-annual (disturbance) growth lines. The second approach assumed all prominent lines were annual. This comparison showed that visual inspection underestimated growth rates and overestimated age. Seasonal timing of annual growth line formation using isotope sclerochronology provided unexpected results. Because this region fell within the warm-temperate paleobiogeographic province, we predicted annual lines formed during summers (most negative δ18O values). Instead, annual growth lines coincided with the most positive δ18O values (winter), typical of bivalves from cold-temperate regions. Moreover, shells recorded seasonal temperatures ranging from 3.2-20.8°C, a range lower than the thermal regime defined for warm-temperate environments (8-25°C). Possibly, the Sea Slope Gyre, which mixed eddies and cold filaments of the Labrador Current and warm waters of the Gulf Stream, penetrated the warm-temperate environment in this region. Alternatively, warm-water fauna from the zoogeographic Carolinian subprovince migrated northward and endured by virtue of warm summer temperatures. Regardless of the explanation, our findings provide a glimpse of mid-latitude seasonal temperature range for a warm climate episode during the mid-Pliocene.

Climatic indicators over Catalonia during the last century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busto, M.; Prohom, M.

2010-09-01

The Meteorological Service of Catalonia releases a yearly bulletin whose main objective is to try to detect climate trends over Catalonia during the last decades. Climate indicators are obtained from the analysis of historical daily air temperature, sea temperature and rainfall series. Those series have been first completed, analyzed for quality control and homogenized to ensure its final reliability. Regarding homogenization, monthly air temperature series have been tested and corrected according to the methodology proposed by Caussinus and Mestre (2004). For the two longest air temperature series, the calculated correction factors have been transferred to the daily values following Vincent et al. (2002) recommendations, while no significant inhomogeneities have been detected for precipitation series. The analysis of temperature trends, for the period 1950-2010, of 17 selected climatic series spread across the territory shows a common temperature increase between +0.19 to +0.24 °C/decade. This warming trend is uniform and no specific sub-regional trends are detected. Furthermore, the seasonal approach reveals that mean maximum temperature increases at a higher rate than mean minimum temperature. The summer temperature rise is the most significant, between +0.32 and +0.44 °C/decade, while autumn is the only season showing no significant positive trend. The summer maximum temperature shows the highest increase, exceeding +0.39 °C/decade in all the 17 series. The climatic extremes analysis of the longest Catalan series (Ebre Observatory in Roquetes, Tarragona, since 1905 and Fabra Observatory in Barcelona since 1913) reveals an increase in the number of summer days, tropical nights, minimum of maximum temperature, warm days and warm nights, and a decrease in the number of frost days, cold nights, cold days and cold spell duration indicator. Concerning precipitation, the only significant trend is the reduction of snow days. These trends were calculated according to the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The sea temperature trend in l'Estartit (NE coast of Catalonia, Costa Brava) since 1974 shows a steady increment in all the measured levels (surface, -20 m, -50 m and -80 m) of +0,33 °C/decade on average. Temperature increment is maximum at -20 m, with +0.36 °C/decade variation. Moreover, there is an increase in the sea level of +3.35 cm/decade. CAUSSINUS, H. and MESTRE, O. (2004): Detection and correction of artificial shifts in climate series. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C - Applied Statistics, 53, 405-425. VINCENT, L.A., ZHANG, X., BONSAL, B.R., HOGG, W.D. (2002): Homogenization of daily temperatures over Canada. Journal of Climate, 15, 1322-1334

Robotic Lunar Lander Development Project Status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammond, Monica; Bassler, Julie; Morse, Brian

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the status of the development of a robotic lunar lander. The goal of the project is to perform engineering tests and risk reduction activities to support the development of a small lunar lander for lunar surface science. This includes: (1) risk reduction for the flight of the robotic lander, (i.e., testing and analyzing various phase of the project); (2) the incremental development for the design of the robotic lander, which is to demonstrate autonomous, controlled descent and landing on airless bodies, and design of thruster configuration for 1/6th of the gravity of earth; (3) cold gas test article in flight demonstration testing; (4) warm gas testing of the robotic lander design; (5) develop and test landing algorithms; (6) validate the algorithms through analysis and test; and (7) tests of the flight propulsion system.

Experimental Procedure for Warm Spinning of Cast Aluminum Components.

PubMed

Roy, Matthew J; Maijer, Daan M

2017-02-01

High performance, cast aluminum automotive wheels are increasingly being incrementally formed via flow forming/metal spinning at elevated temperatures to improve material properties. With a wide array of processing parameters which can affect both the shape attained and resulting material properties, this type of processing is notoriously difficult to commission. A simplified, light-duty version of the process has been designed and implemented for full-size automotive wheels. The apparatus is intended to assist in understanding the deformation mechanisms and the material response to this type of processing. An experimental protocol has been developed to prepare for, and subsequently perform forming trials and is described for as-cast A356 wheel blanks. The thermal profile attained, along with instrumentation details are provided. Similitude with full-scale forming operations which impart significantly more deformation at faster rates is discussed.

Experimental Procedure for Warm Spinning of Cast Aluminum Components

PubMed Central

Roy, Matthew J.; Maijer, Daan M.

2017-01-01

High performance, cast aluminum automotive wheels are increasingly being incrementally formed via flow forming/metal spinning at elevated temperatures to improve material properties. With a wide array of processing parameters which can affect both the shape attained and resulting material properties, this type of processing is notoriously difficult to commission. A simplified, light-duty version of the process has been designed and implemented for full-size automotive wheels. The apparatus is intended to assist in understanding the deformation mechanisms and the material response to this type of processing. An experimental protocol has been developed to prepare for, and subsequently perform forming trials and is described for as-cast A356 wheel blanks. The thermal profile attained, along with instrumentation details are provided. Similitude with full-scale forming operations which impart significantly more deformation at faster rates is discussed. PMID:28190063

SPRUCE Peat Physical and Chemical Characteristics from Experimental Plot Cores, 2012

DOE Data Explorer

Iversen, C. M. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A.; Hanson, P. J. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A.; Brice, D. J. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A.; Phillips, J. R. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A.; McFarlane, K. J. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A.; Hobbie, E. A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A.; Kolka, R. K. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A.

2012-01-01

This data set reports the results of physical and chemical analyses of peat core samples from the SPRUCE experimental study plots located in the S1-Bog. On August 13-15, 2012, a team of SPRUCE investigators and collaborators collected core samples of peat in the SPRUCE experimental plots. The goal was to characterize the biological, physical, and chemical characteristics of peat, and how those characteristics changed throughout the depth profile of the bog, prior to the initialization of the SPRUCE experimental warming and CO2 treatments. Cores were collected from 16 experimental plots; samples were collected from the hummock and hollow surfaces to depths of 200-300 cm in defined increments. Three replicate cores were collected from both hummock and hollow locations in each plot. The coring locations within each plot were mapped

17. Photocopy of drawing (original 8 x 101/2 inch plate ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

17. Photocopy of drawing (original 8 x 10-1/2 inch plate located in: USDA Forest Service, North Pacific Region, recreation handbook, date unknown). COMMUNITY BLDG., PLATE A-9 (enlarged from a 4x5 negative) - Austin Pass Warming Hut, Washington Highway 542, Glacier, Whatcom County, WA

Holocene warming in western continental Eurasia driven by glacial retreat and greenhouse forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Jonathan L.; Lachniet, Matthew S.; Chervyatsova, Olga; Asmerom, Yemane; Polyak, Victor J.

2017-06-01

The global temperature evolution during the Holocene is poorly known. Whereas proxy data suggest that warm conditions prevailed in the Early to mid-Holocene with subsequent cooling, model reconstructions show long-term warming associated with ice-sheet retreat and rising greenhouse gas concentrations. One reason for this contradiction could be the under-representation of indicators for winter climate in current global proxy reconstructions. Here we present records of carbon and oxygen isotopes from two U-Th-dated stalagmites from Kinderlinskaya Cave in the southern Ural Mountains that document warming during the winter season from 11,700 years ago to the present. Our data are in line with the global Holocene temperature evolution reconstructed from transient model simulations. We interpret Eurasian winter warming during the Holocene as a response to the retreat of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets until about 7,000 years ago, and to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and winter insolation thereafter. We attribute negative δ18O anomalies 11,000 and 8,200 years ago to enhanced meltwater forcing of North Atlantic Ocean circulation, and a rapid decline of δ13C during the Early Holocene with stabilization after about 10,000 years ago to afforestation at our study site. We conclude that winter climate dynamics dominated Holocene temperature evolution in the continental interior of Eurasia, in contrast to regions more proximal to the ocean.

Climate warming and humans played different roles in triggering Late Quaternary extinctions in east and west Eurasia

PubMed Central

Wan, Xinru

2017-01-01

Climate change and humans are proposed as the two key drivers of total extinction of many large mammals in the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene, but disentangling their relative roles remains challenging owing to a lack of quantitative evaluation of human impact and climate-driven distribution changes on the extinctions of these large mammals in a continuous temporal–spatial dimension. Here, our analyses showed that temperature change had significant effects on mammoth (genus Mammuthus), rhinoceros (Rhinocerotidae), horse (Equidae) and deer (Cervidae). Rapid global warming was the predominant factor driving the total extinction of mammoths and rhinos in frigid zones from the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene. Humans showed significant, negative effects on extirpations of the four mammalian taxa, and were the predominant factor causing the extinction or major extirpations of rhinos and horses. Deer survived both rapid climate warming and extensive human impacts. Our study indicates that both the current rates of warming and range shifts of species are much faster than those from the Late Pleistocene to Holocene. Our results provide new insight into the extinction of Late Quaternary megafauna by demonstrating taxon-, period- and region-specific differences in extinction drivers of climate change and human disturbances, and some implications about the extinction risk of animals by recent and ongoing climate warming. PMID:28330916

Increased stem density and competition may diminish the positive effects of warming at alpine treeline.

PubMed

Wang, Yafeng; Pederson, Neil; Ellison, Aaron M; Buckley, Hannah L; Case, Bradley S; Liang, Eryuan; Julio Camarero, J

2016-07-01

The most widespread response to global warming among alpine treeline ecotones is not an upward shift, but an increase in tree density. However, the impact of increasing density on interactions among trees at treeline is not well understood. Here, we test if treeline densification induced by climatic warming leads to increasing intraspecific competition. We mapped and measured the size and age of Smith fir trees growing in two treelines located in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. We used spatial point-pattern and codispersion analyses to describe the spatial association and covariation among seedlings, juveniles, and adults grouped in 30-yr age classes from the 1860s to the present. Effects of competition on tree height and regeneration were inferred from bivariate mark-correlations. Since the 1950s, a rapid densification occurred at both sites in response to climatic warming. Competition between adults and juveniles or seedlings at small scales intensified as density increased. Encroachment negatively affected height growth and further reduced recruitment around mature trees. We infer that tree recruitment at the studied treelines was more cold-limited prior to 1950 and shifted to a less temperature-constrained regime in response to climatic warming. Therefore, the ongoing densification and encroachment of alpine treelines could alter the way climate drives their transitions toward subalpine forests. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Climate warming and humans played different roles in triggering Late Quaternary extinctions in east and west Eurasia.

PubMed

Wan, Xinru; Zhang, Zhibin

2017-03-29

Climate change and humans are proposed as the two key drivers of total extinction of many large mammals in the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene, but disentangling their relative roles remains challenging owing to a lack of quantitative evaluation of human impact and climate-driven distribution changes on the extinctions of these large mammals in a continuous temporal-spatial dimension. Here, our analyses showed that temperature change had significant effects on mammoth (genus Mammuthus ), rhinoceros (Rhinocerotidae), horse (Equidae) and deer (Cervidae). Rapid global warming was the predominant factor driving the total extinction of mammoths and rhinos in frigid zones from the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene. Humans showed significant, negative effects on extirpations of the four mammalian taxa, and were the predominant factor causing the extinction or major extirpations of rhinos and horses. Deer survived both rapid climate warming and extensive human impacts. Our study indicates that both the current rates of warming and range shifts of species are much faster than those from the Late Pleistocene to Holocene. Our results provide new insight into the extinction of Late Quaternary megafauna by demonstrating taxon-, period- and region-specific differences in extinction drivers of climate change and human disturbances, and some implications about the extinction risk of animals by recent and ongoing climate warming. © 2017 The Author(s).

A Smoking Gun for Methane Hydrate Release During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieling, J.; Peterse, F.; Lunt, D. J.; Bohaty, S. M.; S Sinninghe Damsté, J.; Reichart, G. J.; Sluijs, A.

2016-12-01

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma) was a period of rapid 4-5ºC global warming and a global negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) of 3-4.5‰, signaling the input of at least 1500 Gt of δ13C-depleted carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system. Methane from submarine hydrates has long been proposed as a carbon source, but direct and indirect evidence is lacking. We generated a new high-resolution TEX86 and δ13C record from Ocean Drilling Program Site 959 in the eastern tropical Atlantic and find that initial warming preceded the PETM CIE by 10 kyr. Moreover, time-shifted cross-correlations on these new and published temperature-δ13C data imply that substantial (2-3 °C) warming lead 13C-depleted carbon injection by an average of 2-3 kyr globally. Finally, a data compilation shows that global burial fluxes of biogenic Ba approximately doubled across all depths of the ocean studied, which on PETM time scales can only be explained by significant Ba addition to the oceans. Submarine hydrates are Ba-rich and require warming to dissociate. The simplest explanation for the temperature lead and Ba addition to the ocean is that methane hydrate dissociated as a response to initial warming and acted as a positive carbon cycle feedback during the PETM.

Intraoperative ultrasound control of surgical margins during partial nephrectomy.

PubMed

Alharbi, Feras M; Chahwan, Charles K; Le Gal, Sophie G; Guleryuz, Kerem M; Tillou, Xavier P; Doerfler, Arnaud P

2016-01-01

To evaluate a simple and fast technique to ensure negative surgical margins on partial nephrectomies, while correlating margin statuses with the final pathology report. This study was conducted for patients undergoing partial nephrectomy (PN) with T1-T2 renal tumors from January 2010 to the end of December 2015. Before tumor removal, intraoperative ultrasound (US) localization was performed. After tumor removal and before performing hemostasis of the kidney, the specimens were placed in a saline solution and a US was performed to evaluate if the tumor's capsule were intact, and then compared to the final pathology results. In 177 PN(s) (147 open procedures and 30 laparoscopic procedures) were performed on 147 patients. Arterial clamping was done for 32 patients and the mean warm ischemia time was 19 ± 6 min. The mean US examination time was 41 ± 7 s. The US analysis of surgical margins was negative in 172 cases, positive in four, and in only one case it was not possible to conclude. The final pathology results revealed one false positive surgical margin and one false negative surgical margin, while all other margins were in concert with US results. The mean tumor size was 3.53 ± 1.43 cm, and the mean surgical margin was 2.8 ± 1.5 mm. The intraoperative US control of resection margins in PN is a simple, efficient, and effective method for ensuring negative surgical margins with a small increase in warm ischemia time and can be conducted by the operating urologist.

Citizen science shows systematic changes in the temperature difference between air and inland waters with global warming.

PubMed

Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A; Mackay, Murray; Stockwell, Jason D; Thiery, Wim; Grossart, Hans-Peter; Augusto-Silva, Pétala B; Baulch, Helen M; de Eyto, Elvira; Hejzlar, Josef; Kangur, Külli; Kirillin, Georgiy; Pierson, Don C; Rusak, James A; Sadro, Steven; Woolway, R Iestyn

2017-03-06

Citizen science projects have a long history in ecological studies. The research usefulness of such projects is dependent on applying simple and standardized methods. Here, we conducted a citizen science project that involved more than 3500 Swedish high school students to examine the temperature difference between surface water and the overlying air (T w -T a ) as a proxy for sensible heat flux (Q H ). If Q H is directed upward, corresponding to positive T w -T a , it can enhance CO 2 and CH 4 emissions from inland waters, thereby contributing to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The students found mostly negative T w -T a across small ponds, lakes, streams/rivers and the sea shore (i.e. downward Q H ), with T w -T a becoming increasingly negative with increasing T a . Further examination of T w -T a using high-frequency temperature data from inland waters across the globe confirmed that T w -T a is linearly related to T a . Using the longest available high-frequency temperature time series from Lake Erken, Sweden, we found a rapid increase in the occasions of negative T w -T a with increasing annual mean T a since 1989. From these results, we can expect that ongoing and projected global warming will result in increasingly negative T w -T a , thereby reducing CO 2 and CH 4 transfer velocities from inland waters into the atmosphere.

Enhanced summer warming reduces fungal decomposer diversity and litter mass loss more strongly in dry than in wet tundra.

PubMed

Christiansen, Casper T; Haugwitz, Merian S; Priemé, Anders; Nielsen, Cecilie S; Elberling, Bo; Michelsen, Anders; Grogan, Paul; Blok, Daan

2017-01-01

Many Arctic regions are currently experiencing substantial summer and winter climate changes. Litter decomposition is a fundamental component of ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycles, with fungi being among the primary decomposers. To assess the impacts of seasonal climatic changes on litter fungal communities and their functioning, Betula glandulosa leaf litter was surface-incubated in two adjacent low Arctic sites with contrasting soil moisture regimes: dry shrub heath and wet sedge tundra at Disko Island, Greenland. At both sites, we investigated the impacts of factorial combinations of enhanced summer warming (using open-top chambers; OTCs) and deepened snow (using snow fences) on surface litter mass loss, chemistry and fungal decomposer communities after approximately 1 year. Enhanced summer warming significantly restricted litter mass loss by 32% in the dry and 17% in the wet site. Litter moisture content was significantly reduced by summer warming in the dry, but not in the wet site. Likewise, fungal total abundance and diversity were reduced by OTC warming at the dry site, while comparatively modest warming effects were observed in the wet site. These results suggest that increased evapotranspiration in the OTC plots lowered litter moisture content to the point where fungal decomposition activities became inhibited. In contrast, snow addition enhanced fungal abundance in both sites but did not significantly affect litter mass loss rates. Across sites, control plots only shared 15% of their fungal phylotypes, suggesting strong local controls on fungal decomposer community composition. Nevertheless, fungal community functioning (litter decomposition) was negatively affected by warming in both sites. We conclude that although buried soil organic matter decomposition is widely expected to increase with future summer warming, surface litter decay and nutrient turnover rates in both xeric and relatively moist tundra are likely to be significantly restricted by the evaporative drying associated with warmer air temperatures. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Laboratory Plasma Studies

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-11-30

dependent field to the main toroidal field, which provides an effective increment to the acceleration rate if it has a negative time derivative during...regions, non- uniformities in the beam develop in the drift region, scattering in the foils affects the beam entering the laser, effects due to a second...faster destroyed by a small perturbation. Note that this analogy is adequate only when the global RT mode cannot develop - otherwise, it is the rigid pen

Nonlinear Optics and Organic Materials

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-10-01

incrementally by making small changes in the generating optical harmonics. However, deficiencies in backbone or substituents. In this way the chemist can...experimental determination of Otx.l = 4.5 X 10-32 esu. ability of polymeric molecules to generate third Key parameters extracted from the UV and visible...solubility of most active organics in negative charge at the other end, thus generating a the polymer and their tendency to segregate or migrate out

Climate vulnerability and resilience in the most valuable North American fishery.

PubMed

Le Bris, Arnault; Mills, Katherine E; Wahle, Richard A; Chen, Yong; Alexander, Michael A; Allyn, Andrew J; Schuetz, Justin G; Scott, James D; Pershing, Andrew J

2018-02-20

Managing natural resources in an era of increasing climate impacts requires accounting for the synergistic effects of climate, ecosystem changes, and harvesting on resource productivity. Coincident with recent exceptional warming of the northwest Atlantic Ocean and removal of large predatory fish, the American lobster has become the most valuable fishery resource in North America. Using a model that links ocean temperature, predator density, and fishing to population productivity, we show that harvester-driven conservation efforts to protect large lobsters prepared the Gulf of Maine lobster fishery to capitalize on favorable ecosystem conditions, resulting in the record-breaking landings recently observed in the region. In contrast, in the warmer southern New England region, the absence of similar conservation efforts precipitated warming-induced recruitment failure that led to the collapse of the fishery. Population projections under expected warming suggest that the American lobster fishery is vulnerable to future temperature increases, but continued efforts to preserve the stock's reproductive potential can dampen the negative impacts of warming. This study demonstrates that, even though global climate change is severely impacting marine ecosystems, widely adopted, proactive conservation measures can increase the resilience of commercial fisheries to climate change.

Complex responses of spring vegetation growth to climate in a moisture-limited alpine meadow

PubMed Central

Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Gao, Qingzhu; Schwartz, Mark W.; Zhu, Wenquan; Liang, Yan; Li, Yue; Wan, Yunfan; Cao, Xujuan; Williamson, Matthew A.; Jiangcun, Wangzha; Guo, Hongbao; Lin, Erda

2016-01-01

Since 2000, the phenology has advanced in some years and at some locations on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, whereas it has been delayed in others. To understand the variations in spring vegetation growth in response to climate, we conducted both regional and experimental studies on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We used the normalized difference vegetation index to identify correlations between climate and phenological greening, and found that greening correlated negatively with winter-spring time precipitation, but not with temperature. We used open top chambers to induce warming in an alpine meadow ecosystem from 2012 to 2014. Our results showed that in the early growing season, plant growth (represented by the net ecosystem CO2 exchange, NEE) was lower in the warmed plots than in the control plots. Late-season plant growth increased with warming relative to that under control conditions. These data suggest that the response of plant growth to warming is complex and non-intuitive in this system. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that moisture limitation increases in early spring as temperature increases. The effects of moisture limitation on plant growth with increasing temperatures will have important ramifications for grazers in this system. PMID:26983697

Changing Arctic ecosystems - measuring and forecasting the response of Alaska's terrestrial ecosystem to a warming climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearce, John M.; DeGange, Anthony R.; Flint, Paul L.; Fondell, Tom F.; Gustine, David D.; Holland-Bartels, Leslie E.; Hope, Andrew G.; Hupp, Jerry W.; Koch, Joshua C.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Talbot, Sandra L.; Ward, David; Whalen, Mary E.

2012-01-01

The Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska is a complex landscape of lakes, streams, and wetlands scattered across low relief tundra that is underlain by permafrost. This region of the Arctic has experienced a warming trend over the past three decades, leading to thawing of on-shore permafrost and the disappearance of sea ice at an unprecedented rate. The loss of sea ice has increased ocean wave action, leading to higher rates of erosion and salt water inundation of coastal habitats. Warming temperatures also have advanced the overall phenology of the region, including earlier snowmelt, lake ice thaw, and plant growth. As a result, many migratory species now arrive in the Arctic several days earlier in spring than in the 1970s. Predicted warming trends for the future will continue to alter plant growth, ice thaw, and other basic landscape processes. These changes will undoubtedly result in different responses by wildlife (fish, birds, and mammals) and the food they rely upon (plants, invertebrates, and fish). However, the type of response by different wildlife populations and their habitats-either positively or negatively-remains largely unknown.

Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative Scenario

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar; Travis, Larry (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Blood warming, pump heating and haemolysis in low-flow extracorporeal life support; an in vitro study using freshly donated human blood.

PubMed

Kusters, R W J; Simons, A P; Lancé, M D; Ganushchak, Y M; Bekers, O; Weerwind, P W

2017-01-01

Low-flow extracorporeal life support can be used for cardiopulmonary support of paediatric and neonatal patients and is also emerging as a therapy for patients suffering from exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. However, pump heating and haemolysis have proven to negatively affect the system and outcome. This in vitro study aimed at gaining insight into blood warming, pump heating and haemolysis related to the performance of a new low-flow centrifugal pump. Pump performance in the 400-1,500 ml/min flow range was modulated using small-sized dual-lumen catheters and freshly donated human blood. Measurements included plasma free haemoglobin, blood temperature, pump speed, pump pressure, blood flow and thermographic imaging. Blood warming (ΔT max =0.5°C) had no relationship with pump performance or haemolysis (R 2 max =0.05). Pump performance-related parameters revealed no relevant relationships with haemolysis (R 2 max =0.36). Thermography showed no relevant heat zones in the pump (T max =36°C). Concerning blood warming, pump heating and haemolysis, we deem the centrifugal pump applicable for low-flow extracorporeal circulation.

The changing effects of Alaska’s boreal forests on the climate system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Euskirchen, E.S.; McGuire, A. David; Chapin, F.S.; Rupp, T.S.

2010-01-01

In the boreal forests of Alaska, recent changes in climate have influenced the exchange of trace gases, water, and energy between these forests and the atmosphere. These changes in the structure and function of boreal forests can then feed back to impact regional and global climates. In this manuscript, we examine the type and magnitude of the climate feedbacks from boreal forests in Alaska. Research generally suggests that the net effect of a warming climate is a positive regional feedback to warming. Currently, the primary positive climate feedbacks are likely related to decreases in surface albedo due to decreases in snow cover. Fewer negative feedbacks have been identified, and they may not be large enough to counterbalance the large positive feedbacks. These positive feedbacks are most pronounced at the regional scale and reduce the resilience of the boreal vegetation – climate system by amplifying the rate of regional warming. Given the recent warming in this region, the large variety of associated mechanisms that can alter terrestrial ecosystems and influence the climate system, and a reduction in the boreal forest resilience, there is a strong need to continue to quantify and evaluate the feedback pathways.

Complex responses of spring vegetation growth to climate in a moisture-limited alpine meadow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Gao, Qingzhu; Schwartz, Mark W.; Zhu, Wenquan; Liang, Yan; Li, Yue; Wan, Yunfan; Cao, Xujuan; Williamson, Matthew A.; Jiangcun, Wangzha; Guo, Hongbao; Lin, Erda

2016-03-01

Since 2000, the phenology has advanced in some years and at some locations on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, whereas it has been delayed in others. To understand the variations in spring vegetation growth in response to climate, we conducted both regional and experimental studies on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We used the normalized difference vegetation index to identify correlations between climate and phenological greening, and found that greening correlated negatively with winter-spring time precipitation, but not with temperature. We used open top chambers to induce warming in an alpine meadow ecosystem from 2012 to 2014. Our results showed that in the early growing season, plant growth (represented by the net ecosystem CO2 exchange, NEE) was lower in the warmed plots than in the control plots. Late-season plant growth increased with warming relative to that under control conditions. These data suggest that the response of plant growth to warming is complex and non-intuitive in this system. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that moisture limitation increases in early spring as temperature increases. The effects of moisture limitation on plant growth with increasing temperatures will have important ramifications for grazers in this system.

Global warming in the twenty-first century: an alternative scenario.

PubMed

Hansen, J; Sato, M; Ruedy, R; Lacis, A; Oinas, V

2000-08-29

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO(2) greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH(4), and N(2)O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO(2) and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO(2) GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH(4) and O(3) precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO(2) GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO(2) emissions, this reduction of non-CO(2) GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Growing importance of atmospheric water demands on the hydrologcial condition of East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, C. E.; Ho, C. H.; Jeong, S. J.; Park, H.

2015-12-01

As global temperature increases, enhanced exchange of fresh water between the surface and atmosphere expected to make dry regions drier and wet regions wetter. This concept is well fitted for the ocean, but oversimplified for the land. How the climate change causes the complex patterns of the continental dryness change is one of challenging questions. Here we investigate the observed dryness changes of the land surface by examining the quantitative influence of several climate parameters on the background aridity changes over East Asia, containing various climate regimes from cold-arid to warm-humid regions, using observations of 189 stations covering the period from 1961 to 2010. Overall mean aridity trend is changed from negative to positive around early 1990s. The turning of dryness trend is largely influenced by sharp increase in atmospheric water demands, regardless of the background climate. The warming induced increase in water demands is larger in warm-humid regions than in cold-arid region due to the Clausius-Clapeyron relation between air temperature and saturation vapor pressure. The results show the drying of anthropogenic warming already begins and influences on the patterns of dryness change over the land surface.

Complex responses of spring vegetation growth to climate in a moisture-limited alpine meadow.

PubMed

Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Gao, Qingzhu; Schwartz, Mark W; Zhu, Wenquan; Liang, Yan; Li, Yue; Wan, Yunfan; Cao, Xujuan; Williamson, Matthew A; Jiangcun, Wangzha; Guo, Hongbao; Lin, Erda

2016-03-17

Since 2000, the phenology has advanced in some years and at some locations on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, whereas it has been delayed in others. To understand the variations in spring vegetation growth in response to climate, we conducted both regional and experimental studies on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We used the normalized difference vegetation index to identify correlations between climate and phenological greening, and found that greening correlated negatively with winter-spring time precipitation, but not with temperature. We used open top chambers to induce warming in an alpine meadow ecosystem from 2012 to 2014. Our results showed that in the early growing season, plant growth (represented by the net ecosystem CO2 exchange, NEE) was lower in the warmed plots than in the control plots. Late-season plant growth increased with warming relative to that under control conditions. These data suggest that the response of plant growth to warming is complex and non-intuitive in this system. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that moisture limitation increases in early spring as temperature increases. The effects of moisture limitation on plant growth with increasing temperatures will have important ramifications for grazers in this system.

Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario

PubMed Central

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

2000-01-01

A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties. PMID:10944197

Ocean warming increases threat of invasive species in a marine fouling community.

PubMed

Sorte, Cascade J B; Williams, Susan L; Zerebecki, Robyn A

2010-08-01

We addressed the potential for climate change to facilitate invasions and precipitate shifts in community composition by testing effects of ocean warming on species in a marine fouling community in Bodega Harbor, Bodega Bay, California, USA. First, we determined that introduced species tolerated significantly higher temperatures than natives, suggesting that climate change will have a disproportionately negative impact on native species. Second, we assessed the temperature dependence of survival and growth by exposing juveniles to an ambient control temperature and increased temperatures predicted by ocean warming scenarios (+3 degrees C and +4.5 degrees C) in laboratory mesocosms. We found that responses differed between species, species origins, and demographic processes. Based on the temperature tolerance, survival, and growth results, we predict that, as ocean temperatures increase, native species will decrease in abundance, whereas introduced species are likely to increase in this system. Facilitation of invasions by climate change may already be underway; locally, invasive dominance has increased concurrent with ocean warming over the past approximately 40 years. We suggest that the effects of climate change on communities can occur via both direct impacts on the diversity and abundance of native species and indirect effects due to increased dominance of introduced species.

Recent Decrease in Typhoon Destructive Potential and Global Warming Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, I. I.

2016-02-01

Despite the severe impact of individual tropical cyclones like Sandy (2012) and Haiyan (2013), global TC activities as a whole have actually dropped considerably since the early 1990's. Especially over the most active and hazardous TC basin on earth, the Western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon Main Development Region (MDR), an evident decrease in TC activity has been observed, as characterised by the drop in the annual Power Dissipation Index (Emanuel 2005). Paradoxically, this decrease occurred despite evident ocean warming, with upper ocean heat content increased by 12% over the western North Pacific MDR (Pun et al. 2013; Lin et al. 2014). This study explores the interesting interplay between atmosphere and ocean on the WNP typhoons. Though ocean may become more favourable (warming) to fuel individual typhoon event through temporal relaxation in the atmosphere condition (e.g. Haiyan in 2013), the overall `worsened' atmospheric condition (e.g. increase in vertical wind shear) can `over-powers' the `better' ocean to suppress the overall WNP typhoon activities. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling.

Recent Decrease in Typhoon Destructive Potential and Global Warming Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, I. I.

2015-12-01

Despite the severe impact of individual tropical cyclones like Sandy (2012) and Haiyan (2013), global TC activities as a whole have actually dropped considerably since the early 1990's. Especially over the most active and hazardous TC basin on earth, the Western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon Main Development Region (MDR), an evident decrease in TC activity has been observed, as characterised by the drop in the annual Power Dissipation Index (Emanuel 2005). Paradoxically, this decrease occurred despite evident ocean warming, with upper ocean heat content increased by ~ 12% over the western North Pacific MDR (Pun et al. 2013; Lin et al. 2014). This study explores the interesting interplay between atmosphere and ocean on the WNP typhoons. Though ocean may become more favourable (warming) to fuel individual typhoon event through temporal relaxation in the atmosphere condition (e.g. Haiyan in 2013), the overall 'worsened' atmospheric condition (e.g. increase in vertical wind shear) can 'over-powers' the 'better' ocean to suppress the overall WNP typhoon activities. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling.

Study of time reversibility/irreversibility of cardiovascular data: theoretical results and application to laser Doppler flowmetry and heart rate variability signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humeau-Heurtier, Anne; Mahé, Guillaume; Chapeau-Blondeau, François; Rousseau, David; Abraham, Pierre

2012-07-01

Time irreversibility can be qualitatively defined as the degree of a signal for temporal asymmetry. Recently, a time irreversibility characterization method based on entropies of positive and negative increments has been proposed for experimental signals and applied to heart rate variability (HRV) data (central cardiovascular system (CVS)). The results led to interesting information as a time asymmetry index was found different for young subjects and elderly people or heart disease patients. Nevertheless, similar analyses have not yet been conducted on laser Doppler flowmetry (LDF) signals (peripheral CVS). We first propose to further investigate the above-mentioned characterization method. Then, LDF signals, LDF signals reduced to samples acquired during ECG R peaks (LDF_RECG signals) and HRV recorded simultaneously in healthy subjects are processed. Entropies of positive and negative increments for LDF signals show a nonmonotonic pattern: oscillations—more or less pronounced, depending on subjects—are found with a period matching the one of cardiac activity. However, such oscillations are not found with LDF_RECG nor with HRV. Moreover, the asymmetry index for LDF is markedly different from the ones of LDF_RECG and HRV. The cardiac activity may therefore play a dominant role in the time irreversibility properties of LDF signals.

Effects of experimental warming and mowing on greenhouse gas fluxes in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jinsong; Quan, Quan; Sun, Jian; Niu, Shuli

2017-04-01

Rapid climate change and intensified human activities on the Tibetan Plateau may alter the magnitude and direction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, affecting the climate change impact on these fragile ecosystems. We conducted a controlled experiment to investigate the effects of warming and mowing (simulation of grazing) on soil CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes in an alpine meadow in eastern Tibetan Plateau between August 2015 and July 2016. Three levels of temperature (C, ambient temperature; W1, < 2 °C warming at 5 cm soil depth by infrared heaters; and W2, > 2 °C warming) were combined with two levels of mowing treatment (UM, un-mowing; and M, mowing). GHG fluxes were measured once an hour using static chamber. Both CO2 emission and CH4 uptake rates showed a seasonal fluctuation, with the maximum value occurred in late summer and the minimum in winter. However, N2O flux did not show a strong seasonal pattern. High level of warming (W2) regardless of mowing significantly increased CO2 emission and CH4 uptake by 15.4 % and 38.2 % averaged over the year, compared with no-warming (C). Moderate warming (W1) did not have significant effects on either CO2 or CH4 fluxes. N2O flux was reduced by 54.1% by W2 and 15.7% by W1 warming. Mowing alone increased CH4 uptake and N2O emission by 18.0 % and 12.7%, respectively, but had no significant effect on CO2 flux. The interactions between warming and mowing were detected in CO2 and CH4 fluxes. Among all treatments, W2UM in general had the highest rates of CO2 emission and CH4 uptake but the lowest rate of N2O flux, while CUM and CM showed the opposite. In addition, warming induced increase in CH4 uptake and decline in N2O release had very limited ability to offset the enhanced CO2 emission, resulting in a net positive feedback of the three GHGs to climate warming. Furthermore, daily CO2 flux increased exponentially with soil temperature at 5 cm. CH4 flux correlated negatively with soil temperature but positively with soil moisture.

Progression-free survival/time to progression as a potential surrogate for overall survival in HR+, HER2- metastatic breast cancer.

PubMed

Forsythe, Anna; Chandiwana, David; Barth, Janina; Thabane, Marroon; Baeck, Johan; Tremblay, Gabriel

2018-01-01

Several recent randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in hormone receptor-positive (HR+), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2-) metastatic breast cancer (MBC) have demonstrated significant improvements in progression-free survival (PFS); however, few have reported improvement in overall survival (OS). The surrogacy of PFS or time to progression (TTP) for OS has not been formally investigated in HR+, HER2- MBC. A systematic literature review of RCTs in HR+, HER2- MBC was conducted to identify studies that reported both median PFS/TTP and OS. The correlation between PFS/TTP and OS was evaluated using Pearson's product-moment correlation and Spearman's rank correlation. Subgroup analyses were performed to explore possible reasons for heterogeneity. Errors-in-variables weighted least squares regression (LSR) was used to model incremental OS months as a function of incremental PFS/TTP months. An exploratory analysis investigated the impact of three covariates (chemotherapy vs hormonal/targeted therapy, PFS vs TTP, and first-line therapy vs second-line therapy or greater) on OS prediction. The lower 95% prediction band was used to determine the minimum incremental PFS/TTP months required to predict OS benefit (surrogate threshold effect [STE]). Forty studies were identified. There was a statistically significant correlation between median PFS/TTP and OS (Pearson =0.741, P =0.000; Spearman =0.650, P =0.000). These results proved consistent for chemotherapy and hormonal/targeted therapy. Univariate LSR analysis yielded an R 2 of 0.354 with 1 incremental PFS/TTP month corresponding to 1.13 incremental OS months. Controlling the type of treatment (chemotherapy vs hormonal/targeted therapy), line of therapy (first vs subsequent), and progression measure (PFS vs TTP) led to an improved R 2 of 0.569 with 1 PFS/TTP month corresponding to 0.78 OS months. The STE for OS benefit was 5-6 months of incremental PFS/TTP. We demonstrated a significant association between PFS/TTP and OS, which may justify the use of PFS/TTP as a surrogate for OS benefit in HR+, HER2- MBC.

Consumers mediate the effects of experimental ocean acidification and warming on primary producers.

PubMed

Alsterberg, Christian; Eklöf, Johan S; Gamfeldt, Lars; Havenhand, Jonathan N; Sundbäck, Kristina

2013-05-21

It is well known that ocean acidification can have profound impacts on marine organisms. However, we know little about the direct and indirect effects of ocean acidification and also how these effects interact with other features of environmental change such as warming and declining consumer pressure. In this study, we tested whether the presence of consumers (invertebrate mesograzers) influenced the interactive effects of ocean acidification and warming on benthic microalgae in a seagrass community mesocosm experiment. Net effects of acidification and warming on benthic microalgal biomass and production, as assessed by analysis of variance, were relatively weak regardless of grazer presence. However, partitioning these net effects into direct and indirect effects using structural equation modeling revealed several strong relationships. In the absence of grazers, benthic microalgae were negatively and indirectly affected by sediment-associated microalgal grazers and macroalgal shading, but directly and positively affected by acidification and warming. Combining indirect and direct effects yielded no or weak net effects. In the presence of grazers, almost all direct and indirect climate effects were nonsignificant. Our analyses highlight that (i) indirect effects of climate change may be at least as strong as direct effects, (ii) grazers are crucial in mediating these effects, and (iii) effects of ocean acidification may be apparent only through indirect effects and in combination with other variables (e.g., warming). These findings highlight the importance of experimental designs and statistical analyses that allow us to separate and quantify the direct and indirect effects of multiple climate variables on natural communities.

King penguin population threatened by Southern Ocean warming.

PubMed

Le Bohec, Céline; Durant, Joël M; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Stenseth, Nils C; Park, Young-Hyang; Pradel, Roger; Grémillet, David; Gendner, Jean-Paul; Le Maho, Yvon

2008-02-19

Seabirds are sensitive indicators of changes in marine ecosystems and might integrate and/or amplify the effects of climate forcing on lower levels in food chains. Current knowledge on the impact of climate changes on penguins is primarily based on Antarctic birds identified by using flipper bands. Although flipper bands have helped to answer many questions about penguin biology, they were shown in some penguin species to have a detrimental effect. Here, we present for a Subantarctic species, king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus), reliable results on the effect of climate on survival and breeding based on unbanded birds but instead marked by subcutaneous electronic tags. We show that warm events negatively affect both breeding success and adult survival of this seabird. However, the observed effect is complex because it affects penguins at several spatio/temporal levels. Breeding reveals an immediate response to forcing during warm phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation affecting food availability close to the colony. Conversely, adult survival decreases with a remote sea-surface temperature forcing (i.e., a 2-year lag warming taking place at the northern boundary of pack ice, their winter foraging place). We suggest that this time lag may be explained by the delay between the recruitment and abundance of their prey, adjusted to the particular 1-year breeding cycle of the king penguin. The derived population dynamic model suggests a 9% decline in adult survival for a 0.26 degrees C warming. Our findings suggest that king penguin populations are at heavy extinction risk under the current global warming predictions.

Larvae of the coral eating crown-of-thorns starfish, Acanthaster planci in a warmer-high CO2 ocean.

PubMed

Kamya, Pamela Z; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Hardy, Natasha; Mos, Benjamin; Uthicke, Sven; Byrne, Maria

2014-11-01

Outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), Acanthaster planci, contribute to major declines of coral reef ecosystems throughout the Indo-Pacific. As the oceans warm and decrease in pH due to increased anthropogenic CO2 production, coral reefs are also susceptible to bleaching, disease and reduced calcification. The impacts of ocean acidification and warming may be exacerbated by COTS predation, but it is not known how this major predator will fare in a changing ocean. Because larval success is a key driver of population outbreaks, we investigated the sensitivities of larval A. planci to increased temperature (2-4 °C above ambient) and acidification (0.3-0.5 pH units below ambient) in flow-through cross-factorial experiments (3 temperature × 3 pH/pCO2 levels). There was no effect of increased temperature or acidification on fertilization or very early development. Larvae reared in the optimal temperature (28 °C) were the largest across all pH treatments. Development to advanced larva was negatively affected by the high temperature treatment (30 °C) and by both experimental pH levels (pH 7.6, 7.8). Thus, planktonic life stages of A. planci may be negatively impacted by near-future global change. Increased temperature and reduced pH had an additive negative effect on reducing larval size. The 30 °C treatment exceeded larval tolerance regardless of pH. As 30 °C sea surface temperatures may become the norm in low latitude tropical regions, poleward migration of A. planci may be expected as they follow optimal isotherms. In the absence of acclimation or adaptation, declines in low latitude populations may occur. Poleward migration will be facilitated by strong western boundary currents, with possible negative flow-on effects on high latitude coral reefs. The contrasting responses of the larvae of A. planci and those of its coral prey to ocean acidification and warming are considered in context with potential future change in tropical reef ecosystems. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Demographic processes in the Amur region under conditions of economics reform in Russia].

PubMed

D'iachenko, V G

2000-01-01

Demographic and migration processes are analyzed for the Amur region, a typical Far-Eastern Russian territory with low density of population, in the historical and modern aspects. Low birth rate, high mortality, and negative natural increment of population reflect the social and economic reforms of the nineties in the Russian Far East. Demographic situation and migration processes in Asian and Pacific countries neighboring the Russian Far East are characterized by positive tendencies (high birth rate, natural increment in population number, and tendencies of migration of the capable population from densely populated central and Southern provinces to little populated Eastern provinces). According to the demographic prognosis, during the nearest decades we shall witness acute shortage of working resources in the Amur region, which will stimulate the already high flow of foreign manpower from the neighboring countries (China and Northern Korea). This necessitates urgent stabilizing measures at the local and federal levels.

Cultural differences and similarities in beliefs, practices, and neural mechanisms of emotion regulation.

PubMed

Qu, Yang; Telzer, Eva H

2017-01-01

The current research examined whether culture shapes the beliefs, practices, and neural basis of emotion regulation. Twenty-nine American and Chinese participants reported their implicit theory of emotion and frequency of reappraisal use. They also underwent an fMRI scan while completing an emotion regulation task. Chinese (vs. American) participants reported more frequent use of reappraisal, which was mediated by their higher incremental theory of emotion (i.e., believing that emotion is changeable through effort). Although there were some cultural similarities in neural activation during emotion regulation, Chinese participants showed less ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC) activation than American participants when regulating negative emotions. Lower VLPFC activation was associated with higher incremental theory of emotion and more frequent use of cognitive reappraisal. Findings suggest that culture may shape how individuals perceive and engage in emotion regulation, and ultimately, the neural mechanisms underlying emotion regulation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

The Fate of Aspen in a World with Diminishing Snowpacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavanagh, K.; Link, T. E.; Seyfried, M. S.; Kemp, K. B.

2010-12-01

Aspen (Populus tremuloides) productivity is tightly coupled with soil moisture. In the mountainous regions of the western USA, annual replenishment of soil moisture commonly occurs during snowmelt. Therefore, snow pack depth and duration can play an important role in sustaining aspen productivity. The presence of almost 50 years of detailed climate data across an elevational transect in the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) in southwestern Idaho offers a novel opportunity to better understand the role of shifting precipitation patterns on aspen productivity. Over the past 50 years, the proportion of the precipitation falling in the form of snow decreased by almost a factor of 2 at mid to low elevations in the RCEW, coupled with a roughly four week advance of snow ablation, and decline of large snow drifts that release moisture into the early summer. Results from growth ring increment, stable isotope analysis, sapflux and a process model (Biome BGC), will be used to determine the impact of shifting precipitation patterns on tree productivity along this transect over the past 50 years. Aspen trees located on moist microsites continue to transpire water and maintain high stomatal conductance 21 days later in the growing season relative to individuals on drier microsites. Predictions of net primary productivity (NPP) in aspen are very sensitive to precipitation patterns. NPP becomes negative as early as day 183 (90 days post budbreak) for years with little winter and spring precipitation whereas, in years with ample winter and spring precipitation, NPP remains positive until day 260 when leaf fall occurs. These results give unique insight into the conditions that deciduous tree species will encounter in a warming climate where snow water equivalent continues to diminish and soil moisture declines soon after budbreak occurs.

[Urban air pollution and children respiratory hospital admissions in Pisa (Italy): a time series and a case-crossover approach].

PubMed

Vigotti, Maria Angela; Serinelli, Maria; Marchini, Laura

2010-01-01

we evaluated the association of daily pollutants' concentrations with daily hospital admissions for respiratory causes in children residents in Pisa during 1998-2002. We compared the results obtained with two methods of statistical analyses. A total of 657 children under ten years and admitted to local hospitals for respiratory diseases (ICD 9: 460-469, 480- 519) were included in the study. both time-series and case-crossover analysis were applied, controlling for temperature, holidays, influenza epidemics,rain and relative humidity. Pollutants' effects are expressed as percentage increase (and 95% CI) of hospital admissions for an increase of 10 μg/m³ of pollutants (1 mg/m³ for CO). with both analyses, children's hospital admissions for respiratory conditions were significantly associated to increasing daily levels of PM10 and CO at different time lags, while no association was found for NO₂ and O₃. In the case-crossover analysis, for a daily increase of 10 μg/m³ in PM10, a significant increment of 8.5% (CI 95% 0.02; 17.6) in children respiratory admissions was observed at lag 0-3. Results were stronger for males and during the warm season. A 1 mg/m³ increment in daily CO levels was associated with an increase of respiratory admissions at lag 0 (20.2%, CI 95% 5.3; 37.2) and at all cumulative lags: the maximum value was observed at lag 0-3 (32.6%, CI 95%8.3; 62.2). Time series analyses provides similar results, although the estimates were lower than with the other method, in terms of percentage increment and length of confidence intervals. this study indicates adverse effects of air pollution on respiratory health of children living in urban environment. The results of both analyses were consistent.

Momentary changes in craving predict smoking lapse behavior: a laboratory study.

PubMed

Motschman, Courtney A; Germeroth, Lisa J; Tiffany, Stephen T

2018-04-27

Current research on factors that predict smoking lapse behavior is limited in its ability to fully characterize the critical moments leading up to decisions to smoke. We used a validated and widely used experimental analogue for smoking lapse to assess how moment-to-moment dynamics of craving relate to decisions to smoke. Heavy smokers (N = 128, M age = 35.9) participated in a 50-min laboratory delay to smoking task on 2 consecutive days, earning money for each 5 min they remained abstinent or ending the task by choosing to smoke. Participants rated craving and negative affect levels immediately prior to each choice. Participants were randomized to smoking as usual (n = 50) or overnight abstinence (n = 50 successfully abstained, n = 22 failed abstaining) prior to session 2. Discrete-time hazard models were used to examine craving and negative affect as time-varying predictors of smoking. Higher craving levels prior to smoking opportunities predicted increased risk of smoking. When controlling for craving levels, incremental increases in craving predicted increased smoking risk. Increases in negative affect incrementally predicted increased smoking risk at session 2 only. Smokers who failed to abstain were at a higher risk of smoking than those who successfully abstained, whereas abstinent and non-abstinent smokers did not differ in smoking risk. Findings demonstrate an extension of the smoking lapse paradigm that can be utilized to capture momentary changes in craving that predict smoking behavior. Evaluations of nuanced craving experiences may inform clinical and pharmacological research on preventing smoking lapse and relapse.

Depressive Symptoms and Salivary Telomere Length in a Probability Sample of Middle-Aged and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Whisman, Mark A.; Richardson, Emily D.

2016-01-01

Objective To examine the association between depressive symptoms and salivary telomere length in a probability sample of middle-aged and older adults, evaluate age and sex as potential moderators of this association, and test whether this association was incremental to potential confounds. Methods Participants were 3,609 individuals from the 2008 wave of the Health and Retirement Study. Telomere length assays were performed using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) on DNA extracted from saliva samples. Depressive symptoms were assessed via interview, and health and lifestyle factors, traumatic life events, and neuroticism were assessed via self-report. Regression analyses were conducted to examine the associations between predictor variables and salivary telomere length. Results After adjusting for demographics, depressive symptoms were negatively associated with salivary telomere length (b = −.003, p = .014). Furthermore, this association was moderated by sex (b = .005, p = .011), such that depressive symptoms were significantly and negatively associated with salivary telomere length for men (b = −.006, p < .001) but not for women (b = −.001, p = .644). The negative association between depressive symptoms and salivary telomere length in men remained statistically significant after additionally adjusting for cigarette smoking, body mass index, chronic health conditions, childhood and lifetime exposure to traumatic life events, and neuroticism. Conclusions Higher levels of depressive symptoms were associated with shorter salivary telomeres in men and this association was incremental to several potential confounds. Shortened telomeres may help account for the association between depression and poor physical health and mortality. PMID:28029664

Tributaries affect the thermal response of lakes to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Råman Vinnå, Love; Wüest, Alfred; Zappa, Massimiliano; Fink, Gabriel; Bouffard, Damien

2018-01-01

Thermal responses of inland waters to climate change varies on global and regional scales. The extent of warming is determined by system-specific characteristics such as fluvial input. Here we examine the impact of ongoing climate change on two alpine tributaries, the Aare River and the Rhône River, and their respective downstream peri-alpine lakes: Lake Biel and Lake Geneva. We propagate regional atmospheric temperature effects into river discharge projections. These, together with anthropogenic heat sources, are in turn incorporated into simple and efficient deterministic models that predict future water temperatures, river-borne suspended sediment concentration (SSC), lake stratification and river intrusion depth/volume in the lakes. Climate-induced shifts in river discharge regimes, including seasonal flow variations, act as positive and negative feedbacks in influencing river water temperature and SSC. Differences in temperature and heating regimes between rivers and lakes in turn result in large seasonal shifts in warming of downstream lakes. The extent of this repressive effect on warming is controlled by the lakes hydraulic residence time. Previous studies suggest that climate change will diminish deep-water oxygen renewal in lakes. We find that climate-related seasonal variations in river temperatures and SSC shift deep penetrating river intrusions from summer towards winter. Thus potentially counteracting the otherwise negative effects associated with climate change on deep-water oxygen content. Our findings provide a template for evaluating the response of similar hydrologic systems to on-going climate change.

Nearshore temperature findings for the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, Arizona: possible implications for native fish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Robert P.; Vernieu, William S.

2013-01-01

Since the completion of Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona, in 1963, downstream water temperatures in the main channel of the Colorado River in Glen, Marble, and Grand Canyons are much colder in summer. This has negatively affected humpback chub (Gila cypha) and other native fish adapted to seasonally warm water, reducing main-channel spawning activity and impeding the growth and development of larval and juvenile fish. Recently published studies by U.S. Geological Survey scientists found that under certain conditions some isolated nearshore environments in Grand Canyon allow water to become separated from the main-channel current and to warm, providing refuge areas for the development of larval and juvenile fish.