Evapotranspiration-dominated biogeophysical warming effect of urbanization in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Guosong; Dong, Jinwei; Cui, Yaoping; Liu, Jiyuan; Zhai, Jun; He, Tian; Zhou, Yuyu; Xiao, Xiangming

2018-03-01

Given the considerable influences of urbanization on near-surface air temperature (T a ) and surface skin temperature (T s ) at local and regional scales, we investigated the biogeophysical effects of urbanization on T a and T s in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region of China, a typical rapidly urbanizing area, using the weather research and forecasting model (WRF). Two experiments were conducted using satellite-derived realistic areal fraction land cover data in 2010 and 1990 as well as localized parameters (e.g. albedo and leaf area index). Without considering anthropogenic heat, experimental differences indicated a regional biogeophysical warming of 0.15 °C (0.16 °C) in summer T a (T s ), but a negligible warming in winter T a (T s ). Sensitivity analyses also showed a stronger magnitude of local warming in summer than in winter. Along with an increase of 10% in the urban fraction, local T a (T s ) increases of 0.185 °C (0.335 °C), 0.212 °C (0.464 °C), and 0.140 °C (0.220 °C) were found at annual, summer, and winter scales, respectively, according to a space-for-time substitution method. The sensitivity analyses will be beneficial to get a rough biogeophysical warming estimation of future urbanization projections. Furthermore, a decomposed temperature metric (DTM) method was applied for the attribution analyses of the change in T s induced by urbanization. Our results showed that the decrease in evapotranspiration-induced latent heat played a dominate role in biogeophysical warming due to urbanization in BTH, indicating that increasing green space could alleviate warming effects, especially in summer.

Morphology of ionospheric F2 region variability associated with sudden stratospheric warmings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Sumedha; Upadhayaya, A. K.

2017-07-01

The effect of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) on the F2 region ionosphere has been extensively analyzed for the major event of year 2009, apart from a few reports on other major and minor events. Morphology of ionospheric responses during SSW can be better comprehended by analyzing such warming events under different solar, geomagnetic, and meteorological conditions. We investigate the features of F2 region variability following the SSW events of 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016, using ionosonde data from the Asian region covering a broad latitudinal range from 26.6°N to 45.1°N. We find perceptible ionospheric variations in electron densities during these warming events which is accompanied by a large variation of 117% within enhancements, as compared to a meagre variation of 11% within depressions, during these events. We also examine 6 months data at these latitudes and longitudes and find that the maximum and minimum variations in F2 layer critical frequency are observed during each SSW period. The influence of quasi-stationary 16 day planetary waves is seen during these SSW events. Further, a recently proposed parameter "SSW integrated strength" by Vieira et al. (2017) to characterize SSW event with respect to ionosphere is also examined. It is seen that it does not fit well for these seven SSW events at these latitudes and longitudes.

Mechanisms of elevation-dependent warming over complex terrain in high-resolution simulations of regional climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minder, J. R.; Letcher, T.; Liu, C.

2016-12-01

Numerous observational and modeling studies have suggested that over mountainous terrain certain elevations can experience systematically enhanced rates of near-surface climate warming relative to the surrounding region, a phenomenon referred to as elevation-dependent warming (EDW). In many of these studies high-elevation locations were found to experience the fastest warming rates. A variety of physical mechanisms for EDW have been proposed but there is no consensus as to the dominant cause. We examine EDW in regional climate model (RCM) simulations with very high horizontal resolution (4-km horizontal grid). The simulation domain centers on the Rocky Mountains and intermountain west of the United States. Climate change simulations are conducted using the "pseudo global warming" framework to focus on the regional response to large-scale thermodynamic and radiative climate changes representative of mid-century anthropogenic global climate change. Substantial EDW is found in these simulations. Warming varies with elevation by up to 1°C depending on the season considered. The structure of EDW is only weakly sensitive to variations in horizontal grid spacing ranging from 4 to 36 km. The snow-albedo feedback (SAF) plays a major role in causing the simulated EDW. The elevation band of maximum warming varies seasonally, mostly following the margin of the seasonal snowpack where snow cover and albedo reductions are maximized under climate warming. Additional simulations where the SAF is artificially suppressed demonstrate that EDW variations of up to 0.6°C can be attributed to the SAF. Simulations with a suppressed SAF still exhibit EDW variations up to 0.8°C that must be explained by other mechanisms. This remaining EDW shows a near linear increase in warming with elevation in most months and does not appear to be inherited from the profile of large-scale free-tropospheric warming. Simple theoretical calculations suggest that the non-linear dependence of surface

Effects of warming and nitrogen fertilization on GHG flux in the permafrost region of an alpine meadow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiaopeng; Wang, Genxu; Zhang, Tao; Mao, Tianxu; Wei, Da; Hu, Zhaoyong; Song, Chunlin

2017-05-01

The limited number of in situ measurements of greenhouse gas (GHG) flux during soil freeze-thaw cycles in permafrost regions limits our ability to accurately predict how the alpine ecosystem carbon sink or source function will vary under future warming and increased nitrogen (N) deposition. An alpine meadow in the permafrost region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was selected, and a simulated warming with N fertilization experiment was carried out to investigate the key GHG fluxes (ecosystem respiration [Re], CH4 and N2O) in the early (EG), mid (MG) and late (LG) growing seasons. The results showed that: (i) warming (4.5 °C) increased the average seasonal Re, CH4 uptake and N2O emission by 73.5%, 65.9% and 431.6%, respectively. N fertilization (4 g N m-2) alone had no significant effect on GHG flux; the interaction of warming and N fertilization enhanced CH4 uptake by 10.3% and N2O emissions by 27.2% than warming, while there was no significant effect on the Re; (ii) the average seasonal fluxes of Re, CH4 and N2O were MG > LG > EG, and Re and CH4 uptake were most sensitive to the soil freezing process instead of soil thawing process; (iii) surface soil temperature was the main driving factor of the Re and CH4 fluxes, and the N2O flux was mainly affected by daily rainfall; (iv) in the growing season, warming increased greenhouse warming potential (GWP) of the alpine meadow by 74.5%, the N fertilization decreased GWP of the warming plots by 13.9% but it was not statistically significant. These results indicate that (i) relative to future climate warming (or permafrost thawing), there could be a hysteresis of GHG flux in the alpine meadow of permafrost region; (ii) under the scenario of climate warming, increasing N deposition has limited impacts on the feedback of GHG flux of the alpine meadow.

Extreme Temperature Exceedances Change more Rapidly Under Future Warming in Regions of non-Gaussian Short Temperature Distribution Tails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, P. C.; Neelin, J. D.; Meyerson, J.

2017-12-01

Regions of shorter-than-Gaussian warm and cold side temperature distribution tails are shown to occur in spatially coherent patterns in the current climate. Under such conditions, warming may be manifested in more complex ways than if the underlying distribution were close to Gaussian. For example, under a uniform warm shift, the simplest prototype for future warming, a location with a short warm side tail would experience a greater increase in extreme warm exceedances compared to if the distribution were Gaussian. Similarly, for a location with a short cold side tail, a uniform warm shift would result in a rapid decrease in extreme cold exceedances. Both scenarios carry major societal and environmental implications including but not limited to negative impacts on human and ecosystem health, agriculture, and the economy. It is therefore important for climate models to be able to realistically reproduce short tails in simulations of historical climate in order to boost confidence in projections of future temperature extremes. Overall, climate models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project capture many of the principal observed regions of short tails. This suggests the underlying dynamics and physics occur on scales resolved by the models, and helps build confidence in model projections of extremes. Furthermore, most GCMs show more rapid changes in exceedances of extreme temperature thresholds in regions of short tails. Results therefore suggest that the shape of the tails of the underlying temperature distribution is an indicator of how rapidly a location will experience changes to extreme temperature occurrence under future warming.

Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States.

PubMed

Karmalkar, Ambarish V; Bradley, Raymond S

2017-01-01

The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US) for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation projections is

Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming

DOE PAGES

Good, Peter; Booth, Ben B. B.; Chadwick, Robin; ...

2016-12-06

For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. By using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. Here, we show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give verymore » similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. Our results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally.« less

Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Good, Peter; Booth, Ben B. B.; Chadwick, Robin; Hawkins, Ed; Jonko, Alexandra; Lowe, Jason A.

2016-12-01

For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. Here using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. We show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give very similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. The results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally.

Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Good, Peter; Booth, Ben B. B.; Chadwick, Robin

For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. By using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. Here, we show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give verymore » similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. Our results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally.« less

Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States

PubMed Central

Bradley, Raymond S.

2017-01-01

The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US) for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation projections is

Analysing regional climate change in Africa in a 1.5 °C global warming world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Torsten; Haensler, Andreas; Jacob, Daniela

2017-04-01

At the 21st session of the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris, a reaffirmation to strengthen the effort to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C was decided. However, even if global warming is limited, some regions might still be substantially affected by climate change, especially for continents like Africa where the socio-economic conditions are strongly linked to the climatic conditions. Hence, providing a detailed analysis of the projected climate changes in a 1.5 °C global warming scenario will allow the African society to undertake measures for adaptation in order to mitigate potential negative consequences. In order to provide such climate change information, the existing CORDEX Africa ensemble for RCP2.6 scenario simulations has systematically been increased by conducting additional REMO simulations using data from various global circulation models (GCMs) as lateral boundary conditions. Based on this ensemble, which now consists of eleven CORDEX Africa RCP2.6 regional climate model simulations from three RCMs (forced with different GCMs), various temperature and precipitation indices such as number of cold/hot days and nights, duration of the rainy season, the amount of rainfall in the rainy seasons and the number of dry spells have been calculated for a 1.5 °C global warming scenario. The applied method to define the 1.5 °C global warming period has been already applied in the IMPACT2C project. In our presentation, we will discuss the analysis of the climate indices in a 1.5 °C global warming world for the CORDEX-Africa region. Amongst presenting the magnitude of projected changes, we will also address the question for selected indices if the changes projected in a 1.5 °C global warming scenario are already larger than the climate variability and we will also draw links to the changes projected under a more extreme scenario.

Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming.

PubMed

Good, Peter; Booth, Ben B B; Chadwick, Robin; Hawkins, Ed; Jonko, Alexandra; Lowe, Jason A

2016-12-06

For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. Here using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. We show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give very similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. The results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally.

Diurnal warming in shallow coastal seas: Observations from the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.; Minnett, P. J.; Berkelmans, R.; Hendee, J.; Manfrino, C.

2014-07-01

A good understanding of diurnal warming in the upper ocean is important for the validation of satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) against in-situ buoy data and for merging satellite SSTs taken at different times of the same day. For shallow coastal regions, better understanding of diurnal heating could also help improve monitoring and prediction of ecosystem health, such as coral reef bleaching. Compared to its open ocean counterpart which has been studied extensively and modeled with good success, coastal diurnal warming has complicating localized characteristics, including coastline geometry, bathymetry, water types, tidal and wave mixing. Our goal is to characterize coastal diurnal warming using two extensive in-situ temperature and weather datasets from the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Results showed clear daily warming patterns in most stations from both datasets. For the three Caribbean stations where solar radiation is the main cause of daily warming, the mean diurnal warming amplitudes were about 0.4 K at depths of 4-7 m and 0.6-0.7 K at shallower depths of 1-2 m; the largest warming value was 2.1 K. For coral top temperatures of the GBR, 20% of days had warming amplitudes >1 K, with the largest >4 K. The bottom warming at shallower sites has higher daily maximum temperatures and lower daily minimum temperatures than deeper sites nearby. The averaged daily warming amplitudes were shown to be closely related to daily average wind speed and maximum insolation, as found in the open ocean. Diurnal heating also depends on local features including water depth, location on different sections of the reef (reef flat vs. reef slope), the relative distance from the barrier reef chain (coast vs. lagoon stations vs. inner barrier reef sites vs. outer rim sites); and the proximity to the tidal inlets. In addition, the influence of tides on daily temperature changes and its relative importance compared to solar radiation was quantified by

Differentiation regional climate impact indicators at 1.5°C and 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, C. F.

2016-12-01

Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. By establishing 1.5°C as the long term temperature limit for global average temperature increase and inviting a special report of the IPCC on the impacts of 1.5°C, the Paris Agreement has put such assessments high on the post-Paris science agenda. Here I will present recent findings of climate impacts at 1.5°C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. In particular, I will present findings from a recent study that attempts to differentiate between such impacts at warming levels of 1.5°¸C and 2°C above pre-industrial (Schleussner et al., 2016). By analyzing changes in indicators for 26 world regions as applicable, the study found regional dependent differences between a 1.5°C and 2°C warming. Regional hot-spots of change emerge with tropical regions bearing the brunt of the impacts of an additional 0.5°C warming. These findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. Building on that analysis, I will discuss limitations of existing approaches to differentiate between warming levels and outline opportunities for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C warming. ReferencesSchleussner, C.-F. et al. Differential climate impacts for policy relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5°C and 2°C. Earth Syst. Dyn. 7, 327-351 (2016).

Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming

PubMed Central

Good, Peter; Booth, Ben B. B.; Chadwick, Robin; Hawkins, Ed; Jonko, Alexandra; Lowe, Jason A.

2016-01-01

For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. Here using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. We show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give very similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. The results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally. PMID:27922014

Regionally coherent Little Ice Age cooling in the Atlantic Warm Pool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richey, J.N.; Poore, R.Z.; Flower, B.P.; Quinn, T.M.; Hollander, D.J.

2009-01-01

We present 2 new decadal-resolution foraminiferal Mg/Ca-SST records covering the past 6-8 centuries from the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). These records provide evidence for a Little Ice Age (LIA) cooling of 2??C, consistent with a published Mg/Ca record from Pigmy Basin. Comparison of these 3 records with existing SST proxy records from the GOM-Caribbean region show that the magnitude of LIA cooling in the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) was significantly larger than the mean hemispheric cooling of <1??C. We propose that a reduction in the intensity and spatial extent of the AWP during the LIA, combined with associated changes in atmospheric circulation may account for the regional SST patterns observed in the GOM-Caribbean region during the LIA. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Mid-Century Warming in the Los Angeles Region and its Uncertainty using Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, F.; Hall, A. D.; Walton, D.; Capps, S. B.; Qu, X.; Huang, H. J.; Berg, N.; Jousse, A.; Schwartz, M.; Nakamura, M.; Cerezo-Mota, R.

2012-12-01

Using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques, we projected mid-21st century warming in the Los Angeles region at 2-km resolution. To account for uncertainty associated with the trajectory of future greenhouse gas emissions, we examined projections for both "business-as-usual" (RCP8.5) and "mitigation" (RCP2.6) emissions scenarios from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To account for the considerable uncertainty associated with choice of global climate model, we downscaled results for all available global climate models in CMIP5. For the business-as-usual scenario, we find that by the mid-21st century, the most likely warming is roughly 2.6°C averaged over the region's land areas, with a 95% confidence that the warming lies between 0.9 and 4.2°C. The high resolution of the projections reveals a pronounced spatial pattern in the warming: High elevations and inland areas separated from the coast by at least one mountain complex warm 20 to 50% more than the areas near the coast or within the Los Angeles basin. This warming pattern is especially apparent in summertime. The summertime warming contrast between the inland and coastal zones has a large effect on the most likely expected number of extremely hot days per year. Coastal locations and areas within the Los Angeles basin see roughly two to three times the number of extremely hot days, while high elevations and inland areas typically experience approximately three to five times the number of extremely hot days. Under the mitigation emissions scenario, the most likely warming and increase in heat extremes are somewhat smaller. However, the majority of the warming seen in the business-as-usual scenario still occurs at all locations in the most likely case under the mitigation scenario, and heat extremes still increase significantly. This warming study is the first part of a series studies of our project. More climate change impacts on the Santa Ana wind, rainfall

Alexander Polonsky Global warming hiatus, ocean variability and regional climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polonsky, A.

2016-02-01

This presentation generalizes the results concerning ocean variability, large-scale interdecadal ocean-atmosphere interaction in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and their impact on global and regional climate change carried out by the author and his colleagues for about 20 years. It is demonstrated once more that Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO, which was early referred by the author as "interdecadal mode of North Atlantic Oscillation") is the crucial natural interdecadal climatic signal for the Atlantic-European and Mediterranean regions. It is characterized by amplitude which is the same order as human-induced centennial climate change and exceeds trend-like anthropogenic change at the decadal scale. Fast increasing of the global and Northern Hemisphere air temperature in the last 30 yrs of XX century (especially pronounced in the North Atlantic region and surrounded areas) is due to coincidence of human-induced positive trend and transition from the negative to the positive phase of AMO. AMO accounts for about 50% (60%) of the global (Northern Hemisphere) temperature trend in that period. Recent global warming hiatus is mostly the result of switch off the AMO phase. Typical AMO temporal scale is dictated by meridional overturning variability in the Atlantic Ocean and associated magnitude of meridional heat transport. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is the other natural interdecadal signal which significantly impacts the global and regional climate variability. The rate of the ocean warming for different periods assessed separately for the upper mixed layer and deeper layers using data of oceanic re-analysis since 1959 confirms the principal role of the natural interdecadal oceanic modes (AMO and PDO) in observing climate change. At the same time a lack of deep-ocean long-term observing system restricts the accuracy of assessment of the heat redistribution in the World Ocean. I thanks to Pavel Sukhonos for help in the presentation preparing.

Warming shifts 'worming': effects of experimental warming on invasive earthworms in northern North America.

PubMed

Eisenhauer, Nico; Stefanski, Artur; Fisichelli, Nicholas A; Rice, Karen; Rich, Roy; Reich, Peter B

2014-11-03

Climate change causes species range shifts and potentially alters biological invasions. The invasion of European earthworm species across northern North America has severe impacts on native ecosystems. Given the long and cold winters in that region that to date supposedly have slowed earthworm invasion, future warming is hypothesized to accelerate earthworm invasions into yet non-invaded regions. Alternatively, warming-induced reductions in soil water content (SWC) can also decrease earthworm performance. We tested these hypotheses in a field warming experiment at two sites in Minnesota, USA by sampling earthworms in closed and open canopy in three temperature treatments in 2010 and 2012. Structural equation modeling revealed that detrimental warming effects on earthworm densities and biomass could indeed be partly explained by warming-induced reductions in SWC. The direction of warming effects depended on the current average SWC: warming had neutral to positive effects at high SWC, whereas the opposite was true at low SWC. Our results suggest that warming limits the invasion of earthworms in northern North America by causing less favorable soil abiotic conditions, unless warming is accompanied by increased and temporally even distributions of rainfall sufficient to offset greater water losses from higher evapotranspiration.

Regional Warming from Aerosol Removal over the United States: Results from a Transient 2010-2050 Climate Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mickley, L. J.; Leibensperger, E. M.; Jacob, D. J.; Rind, D.

2012-01-01

We use a general circulation model (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM 3) to investigate the regional climate response to removal of aerosols over the United States. We perform a pair of transient 2010e2050 climate simulations following a scenario of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, with and without aerosols over the United States and with present-day aerosols elsewhere. We find that removing U.S. aerosol significantly enhances the warming from greenhouse gases in a spatial pattern that strongly correlates with that of the aerosol. Warming is nearly negligible outside the United States, but annual mean surface temperatures increase by 0.4e0.6 K in the eastern United States. Temperatures during summer heat waves in the Northeast rise by as much as 1e2 K due to aerosol removal, driven in part by positive feedbacks involving soil moisture and low cloud cover. Reducing U.S. aerosol sources to achieve air quality objectives could thus have significant unintended regional warming consequences.

Regional patterns of the change in annual-mean tropical rainfall under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, P.

2013-12-01

Projection of the change in tropical rainfall under global warming is a major challenge with great societal implications. The current study analyzes the 18 models from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, and investigates the regional pattern of annual-mean rainfall change under global warming. With surface warming, the climatological ascending pumps up increased surface moisture and leads rainfall increase over the tropical convergence zone (wet-get-wetter effect), while the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) increase induces ascending flow and then increasing rainfall over the equatorial Pacific and the northern Indian Ocean where the local oceanic warming exceeds the tropical mean temperature increase (warmer-get-wetter effect). The background surface moisture and SST also can modify warmer-get-wetter effect: the former can influence the moisture change and contribute to the distribution of moist instability change, while the latter can suppress the role of instability change over the equatorial eastern Pacific due to the threshold effect of convection-SST relationship. The wet-get-wetter and modified warmer-get-wetter effects form a hook-like pattern of rainfall change over the tropical Pacific and an elliptic pattern over the northern Indian Ocean. The annual-mean rainfall pattern can be partly projected based on current rainfall climatology, while it also has great uncertainties due to the uncertain change in SST pattern.

Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Anthony C.; Hawcroft, Matthew K.; Haywood, James M.; Jones, Andy; Guo, Xiaoran; Moore, John C.

2018-02-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end-of-century global warming of 2.6-3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global-mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea-ice loss and thermosteric sea-level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.

Warming shifts ‘worming': effects of experimental warming on invasive earthworms in northern North America

PubMed Central

Eisenhauer, Nico; Stefanski, Artur; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Rice, Karen; Rich, Roy; Reich, Peter B.

2014-01-01

Climate change causes species range shifts and potentially alters biological invasions. The invasion of European earthworm species across northern North America has severe impacts on native ecosystems. Given the long and cold winters in that region that to date supposedly have slowed earthworm invasion, future warming is hypothesized to accelerate earthworm invasions into yet non-invaded regions. Alternatively, warming-induced reductions in soil water content (SWC) can also decrease earthworm performance. We tested these hypotheses in a field warming experiment at two sites in Minnesota, USA by sampling earthworms in closed and open canopy in three temperature treatments in 2010 and 2012. Structural equation modeling revealed that detrimental warming effects on earthworm densities and biomass could indeed be partly explained by warming-induced reductions in SWC. The direction of warming effects depended on the current average SWC: warming had neutral to positive effects at high SWC, whereas the opposite was true at low SWC. Our results suggest that warming limits the invasion of earthworms in northern North America by causing less favorable soil abiotic conditions, unless warming is accompanied by increased and temporally even distributions of rainfall sufficient to offset greater water losses from higher evapotranspiration. PMID:25363633

Formation of Cool and Warm Jets by Magnetic Flux Emerging from the Solar Chromosphere to Transition Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Liping; Peter, Hardi; He, Jiansen; Tu, Chuanyi; Wang, Linghua; Zhang, Lei; Yan, Limei

2018-01-01

In the solar atmosphere, jets are ubiquitous at various spatial-temporal scales. They are important for understanding the energy and mass transports in the solar atmosphere. According to recent observational studies, the high-speed network jets are likely to be intermittent but continual sources of mass and energy for the solar wind. Here, we conduct a 2D magnetohydrodynamics simulation to investigate the mechanism of these network jets. A combination of magnetic flux emergence and horizontal advection is used to drive the magnetic reconnection in the transition region between a strong magnetic loop and a background open flux. The simulation results show that not only a fast warm jet, much similar to the network jets, is found, but also an adjacent slow cool jet, mostly like classical spicules, is launched. Differing from the fast warm jet driven by magnetic reconnection, the slow cool jet is mainly accelerated by gradients of both thermal pressure and magnetic pressure near the outer border of the mass-concentrated region compressed by the emerging loop. These results provide a different perspective on our understanding of the formation of both the slow cool jets from the solar chromosphere and the fast warm jets from the solar transition region.

Premonsoon Aerosol Characterization and Radiative Effects Over the Indo-Gangetic Plains: Implications for Regional Climate Warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gautam, Ritesh; Hsu, N. Christina; Lau, K.-M.

2010-01-01

The Himalayas have a profound effect on the South Asian climate and the regional hydrological cycle, as it forms a barrier for the strong monsoon winds and serves as an elevated heat source, thus controlling the onset and distribution of precipitation during the Indian summer monsoon. Recent studies have suggested that radiative heating by absorbing aerosols, such as dust and black carbon over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) and slopes of the Himalayas, may significantly accelerate the seasonal warming of the Hindu Kush-Himalayas-Tibetan Plateau (HKHT) and influence the subsequent evolution of the summer monsoon. This paper presents a detailed characterization of aerosols over the IGP and their radiative effects during the premonsoon season (April-May-June) when dust transport constitutes the bulk of the regional aerosol loading, using ground radiometric and spaceborne observations. During the dust-laden period, there is a strong response of surface shortwave flux to aerosol absorption indicated by the diurnally averaged forcing efficiency of -70 W/sq m per unit optical depth. The simulated aerosol single-scattering albedo, constrained by surface flux and aerosol measurements, is estimated to be 0.89+/- 0.01 (at approx.550 nm) with diurnal mean surface and top-of-atmosphere forcing values ranging from -11 to -79.8 W/sq m and +1.4 to +12 W/sq m, respectively, for the premonsoon period. The model-simulated solar heating rate profile peaks in the lower troposphere with enhanced heating penetrating into the middle troposphere (5-6 km), caused by vertically extended aerosols over the IGP with peak altitude of approx.5 km as indicated by spaceborne Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization observations. On a long-term climate scale, our analysis, on the basis of microwave satellite measurements of tropospheric temperatures from 1979 to 2007, indicates accelerated annual mean warming rates found over the Himalayan-Hindu Kush region (0.21 C/decade+/-0.08 C

Complex regional pain syndrome: evidence for warm and cold subtypes in a large prospective clinical sample.

PubMed

Bruehl, Stephen; Maihöfner, Christian; Stanton-Hicks, Michael; Perez, Roberto S G M; Vatine, Jean-Jacques; Brunner, Florian; Birklein, Frank; Schlereth, Tanja; Mackey, Sean; Mailis-Gagnon, Angela; Livshitz, Anatoly; Harden, R Norman

2016-08-01

Limited research suggests that there may be Warm complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) and Cold CRPS subtypes, with inflammatory mechanisms contributing most strongly to the former. This study for the first time used an unbiased statistical pattern recognition technique to evaluate whether distinct Warm vs Cold CRPS subtypes can be discerned in the clinical population. An international, multisite study was conducted using standardized procedures to evaluate signs and symptoms in 152 patients with clinical CRPS at baseline, with 3-month follow-up evaluations in 112 of these patients. Two-step cluster analysis using automated cluster selection identified a 2-cluster solution as optimal. Results revealed a Warm CRPS patient cluster characterized by a warm, red, edematous, and sweaty extremity and a Cold CRPS patient cluster characterized by a cold, blue, and less edematous extremity. Median pain duration was significantly (P < 0.001) shorter in the Warm CRPS (4.7 months) than in the Cold CRPS subtype (20 months), with pain intensity comparable. A derived total inflammatory score was significantly (P < 0.001) elevated in the Warm CRPS group (compared with Cold CRPS) at baseline but diminished significantly (P < 0.001) over the follow-up period, whereas this score did not diminish in the Cold CRPS group (time × subtype interaction: P < 0.001). Results support the existence of a Warm CRPS subtype common in patients with acute (<6 months) CRPS and a relatively distinct Cold CRPS subtype most common in chronic CRPS. The pattern of clinical features suggests that inflammatory mechanisms contribute most prominently to the Warm CRPS subtype but that these mechanisms diminish substantially during the first year postinjury.

Regional influence of monsoons in the current and a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saini, Roop

Monsoon rainfall is of critical societal importance and monsoon circulations comprise an important part of global climate. Here, the thermodynamics of monsoon onsets in India and North America are considered both for observed data and for model projections with increasing greenhouse gases, in order to better understand the regional influence of monsoons in the current and warming climate. The regional influence of the monsoon onsets is analyzed in terms of the thermodynamic energy equation, regional circulation, and precipitation. For the Indian Monsoon, a Rossby-like response to the monsoon onset is clear in the observational data and is associated with horizontal temperature advection at midlevels as the westerlies intersect the warm temperature anomalies of the Rossby wave. The horizontal temperature advection is balanced by subsidence over areas of North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East, with an associated decrease in precipitation over those regions. The same processes that favor subsidence to the west of the monsoon also force rising motion over northern India and appear to be an important factor for the inland development of the monsoon. For the smaller spatial scales of the North American Monsoon, the descent to the northwest of the primary onset in Northwest Mexico is much more local and occurs directly in the path of monsoon development, apparently providing a self-limiting mechanism. For both monsoon onsets, simple Gill-Matsuno dynamics provide some qualitative understanding of the onset circulation, but do not reproduce the large spatial scales of the upper-level flow, which appear to be related to interactions with the mean westerly jets. The monsoon onsets for both regions were also analyzed for 5 models with available data from the CMIP5 project for runs with 1% per year CO2 increases. For the models considered, there is little consensus regarding changes to the strength of the monsoon onset in a warmer climate in terms of precipitation

Accelerated increase in the Arctic tropospheric warming events surpassing stratospheric warming events during winter: Accelerated Increase in Arctic Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, S. -Y. Simon; Lin, Yen-Heng; Lee, Ming-Ying

In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March-April. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as well as those documented in previous studies. Our results indicate a recent and accelerated increasemore » in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. Given that tropospheric warming events occur twice as fast than the stratospheric warming type, the noted increase in the former implies further intensification in midlatitude winter weather extremes similar to those experienced in early 2016. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated impact on the anomalously cold Siberia.« less

Impacts on regional climate of an afforestation scenario under a +2°C global warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strada, Susanna; Noblet-Ducoudré Nathalie, de; Marc, Stéfanon

2017-04-01

Through surface-atmosphere interactions (SAI), land-use and land-cover changes (LULCCs) alter atmospheric conditions with effects on climate at different scales, from local/regional (a few ten kilometres) (Pielke et al., 2011) to global scales (a few hundred kilometres) (Mahmood et al., 2014). Focusing on the regional scale, in the context of climate change, LULCCs may either enhance or dampen climate impacts via changes in SAI they may initiate. Those LULCC-driven atmospheric impacts could in turn influence e.g. the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, with consequences on mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite LULCC impacts on regional climate are largely discussed in the literature, in Europe information is missing on LULCC impacts under future climate conditions on a country scale (Galos et al., 2015). The latest COPs have urged the scientific community to explore the impacts of reduced global warming (1.5°C to a +2°C) on the Earth system. LULCCs will be one major tool to achieve such targets. In this framework, we investigate impacts on regional climate of a modified landscape under a +2°C climatic scenario. To this purpose, we performed sensitivity studies over western Europe with a fully coupled land-atmosphere regional climate model, WRF-ORCHIDEE (Drobinski et al., 2012, Stefanon et al., 2014). A +2°C scenario was selected among those proposed by the "Impact2C" project (Vautard et al., 2014), and the afforested land-cover scenario proposed in the RCP4.5 is prescribed. We have chosen the maximum extent of forest RCP4.5 simulates for Europe at the end of the 21st century. WRF-ORCHIDEE is fed with boundary atmospheric conditions from the global climate model LMDZ for PD (1971-2000) and the +2°C warming period for the LMDZ model (2028-2057). Preliminary results over the target domain show that, under a +2°C global warming scenario, afforestation contributes by 2% to the total warming due to both climate change and LULCCs. During summer, the

Analyzing Regional Climate Change in Africa in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C Global Warming World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, T.; Haensler, A.; Rechid, D.; Pfeifer, S.; Eggert, B.; Jacob, D.

2018-04-01

At the 21st session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris, an agreement to strengthen the effort to limit the global temperature increase well below 2°C was decided. However, even if global warming is limited, some regions might still be substantially affected by climate change, especially for continents like Africa where the socio-economic conditions are strongly linked to the climatic conditions. In the paper we will discuss the analysis of indices assigned to the sectors health, agriculture, and infrastructure in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C global warming world for the African continent. For this analysis an ensemble of 10 different general circulation model-regional climate model simulations conducted in the framework of the COordinated Downscaling EXperiment for Africa was investigated. The results show that the African continent, in particular the regions between 15°S and 15°N, has to expect an increase in hot nights and longer and more frequent heat waves even if the global temperature will be kept below 2°C. These effects intensify if the global mean temperature will exceed the 2°C threshold. Moreover, the daily rainfall intensity is expected to increase toward higher global warming scenarios and will affect especially the African Sub-Saharan coastal regions.

Radionuclides in ornithogenic sediments as evidence for recent warming in the Ross Sea region, Antarctica.

PubMed

Nie, Yaguang; Xu, Liqiang; Liu, Xiaodong; Emslie, Steven D

2016-07-01

Radionuclides including (210)Pb, (226)Ra and (137)Cs were analyzed in eight ornithogenic sediment profiles from McMurdo Sound, Ross Sea region, East Antarctica. Equilibration between (210)Pb and (226)Ra were reached in all eight profiles, enabling the determination of chronology within the past two centuries through the Constant Rate of Supply (CRS) model. Calculated fluxes of both (210)Pb and (137)Cs varied drastically among four of the profiles (MB4, MB6, CC and CL2), probably due to differences in their sedimentary environments. In addition, we found the flux data exhibiting a clear decreasing gradient in accordance with their average deposition rate, which was in turn related to the specific location of the profiles. We believe this phenomenon may correspond to global warming of the last century, since warming-induced surface runoff would bring more inflow water and detritus to the coring sites, thus enhancing the difference among the profiles. To verify this hypothesis, the deposition rate against age of the sediments was calculated based on their determined chronology, which showed ascending trends in all four profiles. The significant increase in deposition rates over the last century is probably attributable to recent warming, implying a potential utilization of radionuclides as environmental indicators in this region. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Effects of warming on N2O fluxes in a boreal peatland of Permafrost region, Northeast China.

PubMed

Cui, Qian; Song, Changchun; Wang, Xianwei; Shi, Fuxi; Yu, Xueyang; Tan, Wenwen

2018-03-01

Climate warming is expected to increasingly influence boreal peatlands and alter their greenhouse gases emissions. However, the effects of warming on N 2 O fluxes and the N 2 O budgets were ignored in boreal peatlands. Therefore, in a boreal peatland of permafrost zone in Northeast China, a simulated warming experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of warming on N 2 O fluxes in Betula. Fruticosa community (B. Fruticosa) and Ledum. palustre community (L. palustre) during the growing seasons from 2013 to 2015. Results showed that warming treatment increased air temperature at 1.5m aboveground and soil temperature at 5cm depth by 0.6°C and 2°C, respectively. The average seasonal N 2 O fluxes ranged from 6.62 to 9.34μgm -2 h -1 in the warming plot and ranged from 0.41 to 4.55μgm -2 h -1 in the control plots. Warming treatment increased N 2 O fluxes by 147% and transformed the boreal peatlands from a N 2 O sink to a source. The primary driving factors for N 2 O fluxes were soil temperature and active layer depth, whereas soil moisture showed a weak correlation with N 2 O fluxes. The results indicated that warming promoted N 2 O fluxes by increasing soil temperature and active layer depth in a boreal peatland of permafrost zone in Northeast China. Moreover, elevated N 2 O fluxes persisted in this region will potentially drive a noncarbon feedback to ongoing climate change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the suitability of current atmospheric reanalyses for regional warming studies over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chunlüe; He, Yanyi; Wang, Kaicun

2018-06-01

component corresponding to regional climate. In addition, the analysis of Ta observations helps represent regional warming in ERA-Interim and JRA-55. Incorporating vegetation dynamics in reanalyses and the use of accurate aerosol information, as in the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), would lead to improvements in the modelling of regional warming. The use of the ensemble technique adopted in the twentieth-century atmospheric model ensemble ERA-20CM significantly narrows the uncertainties associated with regional warming in reanalyses (standard deviation = 0.15 °C decade-1).

Delayed warming hiatus over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Wenling; Hou, Shugui; Hu, Yongyun; Wu, Shuangye

2017-03-01

A reduction in the warming rate for the global surface temperature since the late 1990s has attracted much attention and caused a great deal of controversy. During the same time period, however, most previous studies have reported enhanced warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In this study we further examined the temperature trend of the TP and surrounding areas based on the homogenized temperature records for the period 1980-2014, we found that for the TP regions lower than 4000 m the warming rate has started to slow down since the late 1990s, a similar pattern consistent with the whole China and the global temperature trend. However, for the TP regions higher than 4000 m, this reduction in warming rate did not occur until the mid-2000s. This delayed warming hiatus could be related to changes in regional radiative, energy, and land surface processes in recent years.

Regional climate models reduce biases of global models and project smaller European summer warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soerland, S.; Schar, C.; Lüthi, D.; Kjellstrom, E.

2017-12-01

The assessment of regional climate change and the associated planning of adaptation and response strategies are often based on complex model chains. Typically, these model chains employ global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs), as well as one or several impact models. It is a common belief that the errors in such model chains behave approximately additive, thus the uncertainty should increase with each modeling step. If this hypothesis were true, the application of RCMs would not lead to any intrinsic improvement (beyond higher-resolution detail) of the GCM results. Here, we investigate the bias patterns (offset during the historical period against observations) and climate change signals of two RCMs that have downscaled a comprehensive set of GCMs following the EURO-CORDEX framework. The two RCMs reduce the biases of the driving GCMs, reduce the spread and modify the amplitude of the GCM projected climate change signal. The GCM projected summer warming at the end of the century is substantially reduced by both RCMs. These results are important, as the projected summer warming and its likely impact on the water cycle are among the most serious concerns regarding European climate change.

Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming.

PubMed

Dillon, Michael E; Wang, George; Huey, Raymond B

2010-10-07

Documented shifts in geographical ranges, seasonal phenology, community interactions, genetics and extinctions have been attributed to recent global warming. Many such biotic shifts have been detected at mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere-a latitudinal pattern that is expected because warming is fastest in these regions. In contrast, shifts in tropical regions are expected to be less marked because warming is less pronounced there. However, biotic impacts of warming are mediated through physiology, and metabolic rate, which is a fundamental measure of physiological activity and ecological impact, increases exponentially rather than linearly with temperature in ectotherms. Therefore, tropical ectotherms (with warm baseline temperatures) should experience larger absolute shifts in metabolic rate than the magnitude of tropical temperature change itself would suggest, but the impact of climate warming on metabolic rate has never been quantified on a global scale. Here we show that estimated changes in terrestrial metabolic rates in the tropics are large, are equivalent in magnitude to those in the north temperate-zone regions, and are in fact far greater than those in the Arctic, even though tropical temperature change has been relatively small. Because of temperature's nonlinear effects on metabolism, tropical organisms, which constitute much of Earth's biodiversity, should be profoundly affected by recent and projected climate warming.

Accelerated increase in the Arctic tropospheric warming events surpassing stratospheric warming events during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Lin, Yen-Heng; Lee, Ming-Ying; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Meyer, Jonathan D. D.; Rasch, Philip J.

2017-04-01

In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as documented in previous studies. The analysis indicates a recent and seemingly accelerated increase in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. The shorter duration and more rapid transition of tropospheric warming events may connect to the documented increase in midlatitude weather extremes, more so than the route of stratospheric warming type. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated remarkable strengthening of the cold Siberian high manifest in 2016.

Warming trends: Adapting to nonlinear change

DOE PAGES

Jonko, Alexandra K.

2015-01-28

As atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rise, some regions are expected to warm more than others. Research suggests that whether warming will intensify or slow down over time also depends on location.

Projected Changes in the Asian-Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global-Warming Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevuturi, Amulya; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Turner, Andrew G.; Hannah, Shaun

2018-03-01

In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming above preindustrial conditions, relative to present day (2006-2015), over the Asian-Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable intermodel variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more-frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia, and northern India with an additional 0.5°C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5°C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5°C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global-mean temperature change to 1.5°C above preindustrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5°C warming.

On the recent warming in the subcloud layer entropy and vertically integrated moist static energy over South Asian Monsoon region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konduru, R.; Gupta, A.; Matsumoto, J.; Takahashi, H. G.

2017-12-01

In order to explain monsoon circulation, surface temperature gradients described as most traditional concept. However, it cannot explain certain important aspects of monsoon circulation. Later, convective quasi-equilibrium framework and vertically integrated atmospheric energy budget has become recognized theories to explain the monsoon circulation. In this article, same theories were analyzed and observed for the duration 1979-2010 over south Asian summer monsoon region. With the help of NCEP-R2, NOAA 20th Century, and Era-Interim reanalysis an important feature was noticed pertained to subcloud layer entropy and vertical moist static energy. In the last 32 years, subcloud layer entropy and vertically integrated moist static energy has shown significant seasonal warming all over the region with peak over the poleward flank of the cross-equatorial cell. The important reason related to the warming was found to be increase in surface enthalpy fluxes. Instead, other dynamical contributions pertained to the warming was also observed. Increase in positive anomalies of vertical advection of moist static energy over northern Bay of Bengal, Central India, Peninsular India, Eastern Arabian Sea, and Equatorial Indian Ocean was found to be an important dynamic factor contributing for warming of vertically integrated moist static energy. Along with it vertical moist stability has also supported the argument. Similar interpretations were perceived in the AMIP simulation of CCSM4 model. Further modeling experiments on this warming will be helpful to know the exact mechanism behind it.

Accelerated Increase in the Arctic Tropospheric Warming Events Surpassing StratosphericWarming Events During Winter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Simon; Lin, Yen-Heng; Lee, Ming-Ying

2017-04-22

In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March-April. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as well as those documented in previous studies. Our results indicate a recent and accelerated increasemore » in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. Given that tropospheric warming events occur twice as fast than the stratospheric warming type, the noted increase in the former implies further intensification in midlatitude winter weather extremes similar to those experienced in early 2016. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated impact on the anomalously cold Siberia.« less

Continuously amplified warming in the Alaskan Arctic: Implications for estimating global warming hiatus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Kang; Zhang, Tingjun; Zhang, Xiangdong; Clow, Gary D.; Jafarov, Elchin E.; Overeem, Irina; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Peng, Xiaoqing; Cao, Bin

2017-01-01

Historically, in situ measurements have been notoriously sparse over the Arctic. As a consequence, the existing gridded data of surface air temperature (SAT) may have large biases in estimating the warming trend in this region. Using data from an expanded monitoring network with 31 stations in the Alaskan Arctic, we demonstrate that the SAT has increased by 2.19°C in this region, or at a rate of 0.23°C/decade during 1921–2015. Meanwhile, we found that the SAT warmed at 0.71°C/decade over 1998–2015, which is 2 to 3 times faster than the rate established from the gridded data sets. Focusing on the “hiatus” period 1998–2012 as identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the SAT has increased at 0.45°C/decade, which captures more than 90% of the regional trend for 1951–2012. We suggest that sparse in situ measurements are responsible for underestimation of the SAT change in the gridded data sets. It is likely that enhanced climate warming may also have happened in the other regions of the Arctic since the late 1990s but left undetected because of incomplete observational coverage.

Terrestrial carbon cycle affected by non-uniform climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Jianyang; Chen, Jiquan; Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Luo, Yiqi; Wan, Shiqiang

2014-03-01

Feedbacks between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change could affect many ecosystem functions and services, such as food production, carbon sequestration and climate regulation. The rate of climate warming varies on diurnal and seasonal timescales. A synthesis of global air temperature data reveals a greater rate of warming in winter than in summer in northern mid and high latitudes, and the inverse pattern in some tropical regions. The data also reveal a decline in the diurnal temperature range over 51% of the global land area and an increase over only 13%, because night-time temperatures in most locations have risen faster than daytime temperatures. Analyses of satellite data, model simulations and in situ observations suggest that the impact of seasonal warming varies between regions. For example, spring warming has largely stimulated ecosystem productivity at latitudes between 30° and 90° N, but suppressed productivity in other regions. Contrasting impacts of day- and night-time warming on plant carbon gain and loss are apparent in many regions. We argue that ascertaining the effects of non-uniform climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems is a key challenge in carbon cycle research.

The Role of Atmospheric Heating over the South China Sea and Western Pacific Regions in Modulating Asian Summer Climate under the Global Warming Background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, B.

2015-12-01

Global warming is one of the most significant climate change signals at the earth's surface. However, the responses of monsoon precipitation to global warming show very distinct regional features, especially over the South China Sea (SCS) and surrounding regions during boreal summer. To understand the possible dynamics in these specific regions under the global warming background, the changes in atmospheric latent heating and their possible influences on global climate are investigated by both observational diagnosis and numerical sensitivity simulations. Results indicate that summertime latent heating has intensified in the SCS and western Pacific, accompanied by increased precipitation, cloud cover, lower-tropospheric convergence, and decreased sea level pressure. Sensitivity experiments show that middle and upper tropospheric heating causes an east-west feedback pattern between SCS-western Pacific and South Asia, which strengthens the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and moist convergence in the lower troposphere, consequently forcing a descending motion and adiabatic warming over continental South Asia and leading to a warm and dry climate. When air-sea interaction is considered, the simulation results are overall more similar to observations, and in particular the bias of precipitation over the Indian Ocean simulated by AGCMs has been reduced. The results highlight the important role of latent heating in adjusting the changes in sea surface temperature through atmospheric dynamics.

Global Warming Threatens National Interests in the Arctic

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-26

Global warming has impacted the Arctic Ocean by significantly reducing the extent of the summer ice cover allowing greater access to the region...increased operations in the Arctic region, and DoD must continue to research and develop new and alternate energy sources for its forces. Global warming is

Pliocene Warm Period Upwelling in the Southern Benguela Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrick, B. F.; McClymont, E.; Felder, S.; Leng, M. J.; Rosell Mele, A.; Rueda, G.

2014-12-01

The mid-Pliocene has been proposed as a possible analogue for understanding future climate change and testing climate models. Previous work has shown that during the Pliocene the major upwelling systems were relatively warm, and thus either inactive, contracted, or upwelling warmer waters than present. Here we examine evidence from a core site located on the margins of the modern Benguela upwelling system, to test whether the upwelling cells had migrated or contracted relative to present during the Pliocene. We applied several organic geochemistry proxies and foraminiferal analyses to reconstruct the Pliocene history of ODP site 1087 (31º28'S, 15º19'E, 1374m water depth), including the UK37' index and TEX86 index (for reconstructing sea surface temperatures), chlorins (for estimating primary productivity) and planktonic foraminifera assemblages (for inferring water mass changes). These proxies show that between 3.5 and 3.0 Ma the southern Benguela region was significantly cooler than the northern Benguela region, the latter where the main upwelling cells are found today. Coupled with higher primary production, a shift in planktonic foraminifera assemblage, and an offset between the UK37' index and TEX86 index, we infer that more extensive upwelling was present in the southern Benguela region during the Pliocene. We infer that the main Benguela upwelling cells had shifted southward relative to today, as a result of changes in the local wind field. We find evidence for pronounced cooling and a shift in the planktonic foraminifera assemblage during the M2 and KM2 glacial stages, showing a sensitivity of Benguela upwelling to these short-lived climate events.

Projected changes over western Canada using convection-permitting regional climate model and the pseudo-global warming method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Kurkute, S.; Chen, L.

2017-12-01

Results from the General Circulation Models (GCMs) suggest more frequent and more severe extreme rain events in a climate warmer than the present. However, current GCMs cannot accurately simulate extreme rainfall events of short duration due to their coarse model resolutions and parameterizations. This limitation makes it difficult to provide the detailed quantitative information for the development of regional adaptation and mitigation strategies. Dynamical downscaling using nested Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are able to capture key regional and local climate processes with an affordable computational cost. Recent studies have demonstrated that the downscaling of GCM results with weather-permitting mesoscale models, such as the pseudo-global warming (PGW) technique, could be a viable and economical approach of obtaining valuable climate change information on regional scales. We have conducted a regional climate 4-km Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) simulation with one domain covering the whole western Canada, for a historic run (2000-2015) and a 15-year future run to 2100 and beyond with the PGW forcing. The 4-km resolution allows direct use of microphysics and resolves the convection explicitly, thus providing very convincing spatial detail. With this high-resolution simulation, we are able to study the convective mechanisms, specifically the control of convections over the Prairies, the projected changes of rainfall regimes, and the shift of the convective mechanisms in a warming climate, which has never been examined before numerically at such large scale with such high resolution.

Stratospheric warmings during February and March 1993

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manney, G. L.; Zurek, R. W.; O'Neill, A.; Swinbank, R.; Kumer, J. B.; Mergenthaler, J. L.; Roche, A. E.

1994-01-01

Two stratospheric warmings during February and March 1993 are described using United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) analyses, calculated potential vorticity (PV) and diabetic heating, and N2O observed by the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) instrument on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). The first warming affected temperatures over a larger region, while the second produced a larger region of reversed zonal winds. Tilted baroclinic zones formed in the temperature field, and the polar vortex tilted westward with height. Narrow tongues of high PV and low N2O were drawn off the polar vortex, and irreversibly mixed. Tongues of material were drawn from low latitudes into the region between the polar vortex and the anticyclone; diabatic descent was also strongest in this region. Increased N2O over a broad region near the edge of the polar vortex indicates the importance of horizontal transport. N2O decreased in the vortex, consistent with enhanced diabatic descent during the warmings.

Regional difference of the start time of the recent warming in Eastern China: prompted by a 165-year temperature record deduced from tree rings in the Dabie Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Qiufang; Liu, Yu; Duan, Bingchuang; Sun, Changfeng

2018-03-01

Tree-ring studies from tropical to subtropical regions are rarer than that from extratropical regions, which greatly limit our understanding of some critical climate change issues. Based on the tree-ring-width chronology of samples collected from the Dabie Mountains, we reconstructed the April-June mean temperature for this region with an explained variance of 46.8%. Five cold (1861-1869, 1889-1899, 1913-1920, 1936-1942 and 1952-1990) and three warm (1870-1888, 1922-1934 and 2000-2005) periods were identified in the reconstruction. The reconstruction not only agreed well with the instrumental records in and around the study area, but also showed good resemblance to previous temperature reconstructions from nearby regions, indicating its spatial and temporal representativeness of the temperature variation in the central part of eastern China. Although no secular warming trend was found, the warming trend since 1970 was unambiguous in the Dabie Mountains (0.064 °C/year). Further temperature comparison indicated that the start time of the recent warming in eastern China was regional different. It delayed gradually from north to south, starting at least around 1940 AD in the north part, around 1970 AD in the central part and around 1980s in the south part. This work enriches the high-resolution temperature reconstructions in eastern China. We expect that climate warming in the future would promote the radial growth of alpine Pinus taiwanensis in the subtropical areas of China, therefore promote the carbon capture and carbon storage in the Pinus taiwanensis forest. It also helps to clarify the regional characteristic of recent warming in eastern China.

Research on trend of warm-humid climate in Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Zhi; Peng, Dailiang; Wen, Jingyi; Cai, Zhanqing; Wang, Tiantian; Hu, Yuekai; Ma, Yaxin; Xu, Junfeng

2017-07-01

Central Asia is a typical arid area, which is sensitive and vulnerable part of climate changes, at the same time, Central Asia is the Silk Road Economic Belt of the core district, the warm-humid climate change will affect the production and economic development of neighboring countries. The average annual precipitation, average anneal temperature and evapotranspiration are the important indexes to weigh the climate change. In this paper, the annual precipitation, annual average temperature and evapotranspiration data of every pixel point in Central Asia are analyzed by using long-time series remote sensing data to analyze the trend of warm and humid conditions. Finally, using the model to analyzed the distribution of warm-dry trend, the warm-wet trend, the cold-dry trend and the cold-wet trend in Central Asia and Xinjiang area. The results showed that most of the regions of Central Asia were warm-humid and warm-dry trends, but only a small number of regions showed warm-dry and cold-dry trends. It is of great significance to study the climatic change discipline and guarantee the ecological safety and improve the ability to cope with climate change in the region. It also provide scientific basis for the formulation of regional climate change program. The first section in your paper

Effect of regional climate warming on the phenology of butterflies in boreal forests in Manitoba, Canada.

PubMed

Westwood, A R; Blair, D

2010-08-01

We examined the effect of regional climate warming on the phenology of butterfly species in boreal forest ecosystems in Manitoba, Canada. For the period 1971-2004, the mean monthly temperatures in January, September, and December increased significantly, as did the mean temperatures for several concurrent monthly periods. The mean annual temperature increased ≈ 0.05°C/yr over the study period. The annual number of frost-free days and degree-day accumulations increased as well. We measured the response of 19 common butterfly species to these temperature changes with the date of first appearance, week of peak abundance, and the length of flight period over the 33-yr period of 1972-2004. Although adult butterfly response was variable for spring and summer months, 13 of 19 species showed a significant (P < 0.05) increase in flight period extending longer into the autumn. Flight period extensions increased by 31.5 ± 13.9 (SD) d over the study period for 13 butterfly species significantly affected by the warming trend. The early autumn and winter months warmed significantly, and butterflies seem to be responding to this warming trend with a change in the length of certain life stages. Two species, Junonia coenia and Euphydryas phaeton, increased their northerly ranges by ≈ 150 and 70 km, respectively. Warmer autumns and winters may be providing opportunities for range extensions of more southerly butterfly species held at bay by past climatic conditions.

Detecting urban warming signals in climate records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yuting; Jia, Gensuo; Hu, Yonghong; Zhou, Zijiang

2013-07-01

Determining whether air temperatures recorded at meteorological stations have been contaminated by the urbanization process is still a controversial issue at the global scale. With support of historical remote sensing data, this study examined the impacts of urban expansion on the trends of air temperature at 69 meteorological stations in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei Province over the last three decades. There were significant positive relations between the two factors at all stations. Stronger warming was detected at the meteorological stations that experienced greater urbanization, i.e., those with a higher urbanization rate. While the total urban area affects the absolute temperature values, the change of the urban area (urbanization rate) likely affects the temperature trend. Increases of approximately 10% in urban area around the meteorological stations likely contributed to the 0.13°C rise in air temperature records in addition to regional climate warming. This study also provides a new approach to selecting reference stations based on remotely sensed urban fractions. Generally, the urbanization-induced warming contributed to approximately 44.1% of the overall warming trends in the plain region of study area during the past 30 years, and the regional climate warming was 0.30°C (10 yr)-1 in the last three decades.

Performance and application of a fluidized bed limestone reactor designed for control of alkalinity, hardness and pH at the Warm Springs Regional Fisheries Center

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Springs serving the Warm Springs Regional Fisheries Center, Warm Springs, Georgia, have pH, alkalinity, and hardness levels that lie under the range required for successful fish propagation while free CO2 is well above allowable targets. We evaluate a pretreatment process that exploits limestone's (...

Experimental whole-stream warming alters community size structure.

PubMed

Nelson, Daniel; Benstead, Jonathan P; Huryn, Alexander D; Cross, Wyatt F; Hood, James M; Johnson, Philip W; Junker, James R; Gíslason, Gísli M; Ólafsson, Jón S

2017-07-01

How ecological communities respond to predicted increases in temperature will determine the extent to which Earth's biodiversity and ecosystem functioning can be maintained into a warmer future. Warming is predicted to alter the structure of natural communities, but robust tests of such predictions require appropriate large-scale manipulations of intact, natural habitat that is open to dispersal processes via exchange with regional species pools. Here, we report results of a two-year whole-stream warming experiment that shifted invertebrate assemblage structure via unanticipated mechanisms, while still conforming to community-level metabolic theory. While warming by 3.8 °C decreased invertebrate abundance in the experimental stream by 60% relative to a reference stream, total invertebrate biomass was unchanged. Associated shifts in invertebrate assemblage structure were driven by the arrival of new taxa and a higher proportion of large, warm-adapted species (i.e., snails and predatory dipterans) relative to small-bodied, cold-adapted taxa (e.g., chironomids and oligochaetes). Experimental warming consequently shifted assemblage size spectra in ways that were unexpected, but consistent with thermal optima of taxa in the regional species pool. Higher temperatures increased community-level energy demand, which was presumably satisfied by higher primary production after warming. Our experiment demonstrates how warming reassembles communities within the constraints of energy supply via regional exchange of species that differ in thermal physiological traits. Similar responses will likely mediate impacts of anthropogenic warming on biodiversity and ecosystem function across all ecological communities. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming.

PubMed

Mackintosh, Andrew N; Anderson, Brian M; Lorrey, Andrew M; Renwick, James A; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M

2017-02-14

Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans.

Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackintosh, Andrew N.; Anderson, Brian M.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Renwick, James A.; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M.

2017-02-01

Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans.

Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming

PubMed Central

Mackintosh, Andrew N.; Anderson, Brian M.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Renwick, James A.; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M.

2017-01-01

Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans. PMID:28195582

Warming effects on the urban hydrology in cold climate regions.

PubMed

Järvi, L; Grimmond, C S B; McFadden, J P; Christen, A; Strachan, I B; Taka, M; Warsta, L; Heimann, M

2017-07-19

While approximately 338 million people in the Northern hemisphere live in regions that are regularly snow covered in winter, there is little hydro-climatologic knowledge in the cities impacted by snow. Using observations and modelling we have evaluated the energy and water exchanges of four cities that are exposed to wintertime snow. We show that the presence of snow critically changes the impact that city design has on the local-scale hydrology and climate. After snow melt, the cities return to being strongly controlled by the proportion of built and vegetated surfaces. However in winter, the presence of snow masks the influence of the built and vegetated fractions. We show how inter-year variability of wintertime temperature can modify this effect of snow. With increasing temperatures, these cities could be pushed towards very different partitioning between runoff and evapotranspiration. We derive the dependency of wintertime runoff on this warming effect in combination with the effect of urban densification.

Ionospheric effects of sudden stratospheric warmings in eastern Siberia region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polyakova, A. S.; Chernigovskaya, M. A.; Perevalova, N. P.

2014-12-01

Ionospheric effects observed in Russia's Asia region during sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the winters 2008/2009 and 2012/2013 corresponding to both extreme solar minimum and moderate solar maximum conditions have been examined. To detect the ionospheric effects which must have been induced by the SSWs, we have carried out a joint analysis of total electron content (TEC) global ionospheric maps (GIM), MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder, EOS Aura) measurements of vertical temperature profiles, as well as NCEP/NCAR and UKMO Reanalysis data. It has been revealed for the first time that during strong SSWs the amplitude of diurnal variation of TEC decreases nearly by half in the mid-latitude ionosphere. Besides, the intensity of TEC deviations from the background level increases during SSWs. It has also revealed that during SSW peak the midday TEC maximum considerably decreases, and the night/morning TEC increases compared to quiet days. The pattern of TEC response to SSW is shown to be identical for both quiet and disturbed geophysical conditions.

Role of atmospheric heating over the South China Sea and western Pacific regions in modulating Asian summer climate under the global warming background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Bian; Yang, Song; Li, Zhenning

2016-05-01

The response of monsoon precipitation to global warming, which is one of the most significant climate change signals at the earth's surface, exhibits very distinct regional features, especially over the South China Sea (SCS) and adjacent regions in boreal summer. To understand the possible atmospheric dynamics in these specific regions under the global warming background, changes in atmospheric heating and their possible influences on Asian summer climate are investigated by both observational diagnosis and numerical simulations. Results indicate that heating in the middle troposphere has intensified in the SCS and western Pacific regions in boreal summer, accompanied by increased precipitation, cloud cover, and lower-tropospheric convergence and decreased sea level pressure. Sensitivity experiments show that middle and upper tropospheric heating causes an east-west feedback pattern between SCS and western Pacific and continental South Asia, which strengthens the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and moist convergence in the lower troposphere, consequently forcing a descending motion and adiabatic warming over continental South Asia. When air-sea interaction is considered, the simulation results are overall more similar to observations, and in particular the bias of precipitation over the Indian Ocean simulated by AGCMs has been reduced. The result highlights the important role of air-sea interaction in understanding the changes in Asian climate.

Water and complex organic molecules in the warm inner regions of solar-type protostars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coutens, A.; Jørgensen, J. K.; Persson, M. V.; Lykke, J. M.; Taquet, V.; van Dishoeck, E. F.; Vastel, C.; Wampfler, S. F.

2015-12-01

Water and complex organic molecules play an important role in the emergence of Life. They have been detected in different types of astrophysical environments (protostars, prestellar cores, outflows, protoplanetary disks, comets, etc). In particular, they show high abundances towards the warm inner regions of protostars, where the icy grain mantles thermally desorb. Can a part of the molecular content observed in these regions be preserved during the star formation process and incorporated into asteroids and comets, that can deliver it to planetary embryos through impacts? By comparison with cometary studies, interferometric observations of solar-type protostars can help to address this important question. We present recent results obtained with the Plateau de Bure interferometer about water deuteration, glycolaldehyde and ethylene glycol towards the low-mass protostar NGC 1333 IRAS2A.

Response to CO2 Transient Increase in the GISS Coupled Model: Regional Coolings in a Warming Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Gary L.; Rind, David

1999-01-01

The (GISS) Goddard Institute for Space Studies coupled atmosphere-ocean model is used to investigate the effect of increased atmospheric CO2 by comparing a compounded 1 percent CO2 increase experiment with a control simulation. After 70 years of integration, the global surface air temperature in the 1 percent CO2 experiment is 1.43 C warmer. In spite of this global warming, there are two distinct regions, the northern Atlantic Ocean and the southern Pacific Ocean, where the surface air temperature is up to 4 C cooler. This situation is maintained by two positive feedbacks: a local effect on convection in the South Pacific and a non-local impact on the meridional circulation in the North Atlantic. The poleward transport of latent energy and dry static energy by the atmosphere is greater in the 1 percent CO2 experiment, caused by warming and therefore increased water vapor and greater greenhouse capacity at lower latitudes. The larger atmospheric transports tend to reduce upward vertical fluxes of heat and moisture from the ocean surface at high latitudes, which has the effect of stabilizing the ocean, reducing both convection and the thermohaline circulation. With less convection, less warm water is brought up from below, and with a reduced North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (by 30 percent at time of CO2 doubling), the poleward energy transport by the oceans decreases. The colder water then leads to further reductions in evaporation, decreases of salinity at high latitudes, continued stabilization of the ocean, and maintenance of reduced convection and meridional overturning. Although sea ice decreases globally, it increases in the cooling regions which reduces the overall climate sensitivity; its effect is most pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere. Tropical warming has been observed over the past several decades; if modeling studies such as this and others which have produced similar effects are valid, these processes may already be beginning.

Anthropogenic Warming Impacts on Today's Sierra Nevada Snowpack and Flood Severity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.; Hall, A. D.; Berg, N.

2017-12-01

Focusing on this recent extreme wet year over California, this study investigates the warming impacts on the snowpack and the flood severity over the Sierra Nevada (SN), where the majority of the precipitation occurs during the winter season and early spring. One of our goals is to quantify anthropogenic warming impacts on the snow water equivalent (SWE) including recent historical warming and prescribed future projected warming scenarios; This work also explores to what extent flooding risk has increased under those warming cases. With a good representation of the historical precipitation and snowpack over the Sierra Nevada from the historical reference run at 9km (using WRF), the results from the offline Noah-MP simulations with perturbed near-surface temperatures reveal magnificent impacts of warming to the loss of the average snowpack. The reduction of the SWE under warming mainly results from the decreased rain-to-snow conversion with a weaker effect from increased snowmelt. Compared to the natural case, the past industrial warming decreased the maximum SWE by about one-fifth averaged over the study area. Future continuing warming can result in around one-third reduction of current maximum SWE under RCP4.5 emissions scenario, and the loss can reach to two-thirds under RCP8.5 as a "business-as-usual" condition. The impact of past warming is particularly outstanding over the North SN region where precipitation dominates and over the middle elevation regions where the snow mainly distributes. In the future, the warming impact on SWE progresses to higher regions, and so to the south and east. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the projected mid-elevation snowpack almost disappears by April 1st with even high-elevation snow reduced by about half. Along with the loss of the snowpack, as the temperature warms, floods can also intensify with increased early season runoff especially under heavy-rainy days caused by the weakened rain-to-snow processes and

Impact of the model resolution on the simulation of elevation-dependent warming in the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas, Greater Alpine Region, and Rocky mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palazzi, Elisa; Mortarini, Luca; Terzago, Silvia; von Hardenberg, Jost

2017-04-01

The enhancement of warming rates with elevation, the so-called elevation-dependent warming (EDW), is one of the clearest regional expressions of global warming. Real sentinels of climate and environmental changes, mountains have experienced more rapid and intense warming rates in the recent decades, leading to serious impacts on mountain ecosystems and downstream societies, some of which are already occurring. In this study we use the historical and scenario simulations of one state-of-the-art global climate model, the EC-Earth GCM, run at five different spatial resolutions, from ˜125 km to ˜16 km, to explore the existence, characteristics and driving mechanisms of EDW in three different mountain regions of the world - the Colorado Rocky Mountains, the Greater Alpine Region and the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas. The aim of this study is twofold: to investigate the impact (if any) of increasing model resolution on the representation of EDW and to highlight possible differences in this phenomenon and its driving mechanisms in different mountain regions of the northern hemisphere. Preliminary results indicate that autumn (September to November) is the only season in which EDW is simulated by the model in both the maximum and the minimum temperature, in all three regions and across all model resolutions. Regional differences emerge in the other seasons: for example, the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas is the only area in which EDW is detected in winter. As for the analysis of EDW drivers, we identify albedo and downward longwave radiation as being the most important variables for EDW, in all three areas considered and in all seasons. Further these results are robust to changes in model resolution, even though a clearer signal is associated with finer resolutions. We finally use the highest resolution EC-Earth simulations available (˜16 km) to identify what areas, within the three considered mountain ranges, are expected to undergo a significant reduction of snow or ice cover

Global warming hiatus contributed to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia.

PubMed

Zhao, Jiuwei; Zhan, Ruifen; Wang, Yuqing

2018-04-16

The recent global warming hiatus (GWH) was characterized by a La Niña-like cooling in the tropical Eastern Pacific accompanied with the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming. Here we show that the recent GWH contributed significantly to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia since 1998. The GWH associated sea surface temperature anomalies triggered a pair of anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulations and equatorial easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which favored TC genesis and intensification over the western Northwest Pacific but suppressed TC genesis and intensification over the southeastern Northwest Pacific due to increased vertical wind shear and anticyclonic circulation anomalies. Results from atmospheric general circulation model experiments demonstrate that the Pacific La Niña-like cooling dominated the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming in contributing to the observed GWH-related anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Northwest Pacific.

Projection of actual evapotranspiration using the COSMO-CLM regional climate model under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C in the Tarim River basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Buda; Jian, Dongnan; Li, Xiucang; Wang, Yanjun; Wang, Anqian; Wen, Shanshan; Tao, Hui; Hartmann, Heike

2017-11-01

Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an important component of the water cycle. The goals for limiting global warming to below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and aspiring to 1.5 °C were negotiated in the Paris Agreement in 2015. In this study, outputs from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) for the Tarim River basin (TRB) were used to calculate ETa with an advection-aridity model, and changes in ETa under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C (2020 to 2039) and 2.0 °C (2040 to 2059) were analyzed. Comparison of warming at the global and regional scale showed that regional 1.5 °C warming would occur later than the global average, while regional 2.0 °C warming would occur earlier than the global average. For global warming of 1.5 °C, the average ETa in the TRB is about 222.7 mm annually, which represents an increase of 6.9 mm relative to the reference period (1986-2005), with obvious increases projected for spring and summer. The greatest increases in ETa were projected for the northeast and southwest. The increment in the annual ETa across the TRB considering a warming of 1.5 °C was 4.3 mm less than that for a warming of 2.0 °C, and the reduction between the two levels of warming was most pronounced in the summer, when ETa was 3.4 mm smaller. The reduction in the increment of annual ETa for warming of 1.5 °C relative to warming of 2.0 °C was most pronounced in the southwest and northeast, where it was projected to be 8.2 mm and 9.3 mm smaller, respectively. It is suggested that the higher ETa under a warming of 2.0 °C mainly results from an increase in the sunshine duration (net radiation) in the southwestern basin and an increase in precipitation in the northeastern basin. Vapor is removed from the limited surface water supplies by ETa. The results of this study are therefore particularly relevant for water resource planning in the TRB.

Quantifying Regional Vegetation Changes in China During Three Contrasting Warming Intervals since the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Q.; Wu, H.; Yu, Y.; Sun, A.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Reconstructing patterns of past vegetation change on a large-scale facilitates a better understanding of the interactions and feedbacks between climate change and the terrestrial biosphere. In addition, reducing the uncertainty in predictions of vegetation change under global warming highlights the importance of reconstructing vegetation patterns during past warming intervals. Here, we present a quantitative regional vegetation reconstruction for China during three intervals: Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 18±2 14C kyr B.P.), early Holocene (8.5±0.5 14C kyr B.P.), and mid-Holocene (6±0.5 14C kyr B.P.). The biomization method, based on 249 pollen records, was used for the reconstructions. The results demonstrate that during the LGM, steppe and desert expanded eastwards and southwards, reaching the present-day temperate deciduous forest (TEDE) zone, and dominated northern China. In contrast, the forest in Eastern China underwent a substantial southwards retreat and the percentage of forest-type sites was at a minimum. In addition, the warm mixed forest (WAMF) and TEDE shifted southwards of 10° N relative to the present-day, and tropical seasonal rain forest (TSFO) was almost absent. At the same time, the forest-steppe boundary shifted southwards to near the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. For the early Holocene and mid-Holocene, the TSFO, WAMF, and TEDE shifted northwards by 2-5° relative to today, and the percentage of forest sites increased and reached a maximum in the mid-Holocene. The slight expansion of forest from the early Holocene to the mid-Holocene caused the forest-steppe boundary to shift northwestwards to near the present-day 300 mm isohyet by the mid-Holocene. Our results also indicate that climatic warming since the LGM, which strengthened the East Asian summer monsoon, favored the development of forest in China. This is potentially an important finding for evaluating the possible response of forest in China to future global warming.

Irrigation enhances local warming with greater nocturnal warming effects than daytime cooling effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xing; Jeong, Su-Jong

2018-02-01

To meet the growing demand for food, land is being managed to be more productive using agricultural intensification practices, such as the use of irrigation. Understanding the specific environmental impacts of irrigation is a critical part of using it as a sustainable way to provide food security. However, our knowledge of irrigation effects on climate is still limited to daytime effects. This is a critical issue to define the effects of irrigation on warming related to greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study shows that irrigation led to an increasing temperature (0.002 °C year-1) by enhancing nighttime warming (0.009 °C year-1) more than daytime cooling (-0.007 °C year-1) during the dry season from 1961-2004 over the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of largest irrigated areas in the world. By implementing irrigation processes in regional climate model simulations, the consistent warming effect of irrigation on nighttime temperatures over the NCP was shown to match observations. The intensive nocturnal warming is attributed to energy storage in the wetter soil during the daytime, which contributed to the nighttime surface warming. Our results suggest that irrigation could locally amplify the warming related to GHGs, and this effect should be taken into account in future climate change projections.

Global warming induced hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salack, Seyni; Klein, Cornelia; Giannini, Alessandra; Sarr, Benoit; Worou, Omonlola N.; Belko, Nouhoun; Bliefernicht, Jan; Kunstman, Harald

2016-10-01

The small rainfall recovery observed over the Sahel, concomitant with a regional climate warming, conceals some drought features that exacerbate food security. The new rainfall features include false start and early cessation of rainy seasons, increased frequency of intense daily rainfall, increasing number of hot nights and warm days and a decreasing trend in diurnal temperature range. Here, we explain these mixed dry/wet seasonal rainfall features which are called hybrid rainy seasons by delving into observed data consensus on the reduction in rainfall amount, its spatial coverage, timing and erratic distribution of events, and other atmospheric variables crucial in agro-climatic monitoring and seasonal forecasting. Further composite investigations of seasonal droughts, oceans warming and the regional atmospheric circulation nexus reveal that the low-to-mid-level atmospheric winds pattern, often stationary relative to either strong or neutral El-Niño-Southern-Oscillations drought patterns, associates to basin warmings in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea to trigger hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel. More challenging to rain-fed farming systems, our results suggest that these new rainfall conditions will most likely be sustained by global warming, reshaping thereby our understanding of food insecurity in this region.

Global warming: it's not only size that matters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegerl, Gabriele C.

2011-09-01

Observed and model simulated warming is particularly large in high latitudes, and hence the Arctic is often seen as the posterchild of vulnerability to global warming. However, Mahlstein et al (2011) point out that the signal of climate change is emerging locally from that of climate variability earliest in regions of low climate variability, based on climate model data, and in agreement with observations. This is because high latitude regions are not only regions of strong feedbacks that enhance the global warming signal, but also regions of substantial climate variability, driven by strong dynamics and enhanced by feedbacks (Hall 2004). Hence the spatial pattern of both observed warming and simulated warming for the 20th century shows strong warming in high latitudes, but this warming occurs against a backdrop of strong variability. Thus, the ratio of the warming to internal variability is not necessarily highest in the regions that warm fastest—and Mahlstein et al illustrate that it is actually the low-variability regions where the signal of local warming emerges first from that of climate variability. Thus, regions with strongest warming are neither the most important to diagnose that forcing changes climate, nor are they the regions which will necessarily experience the strongest impact. The importance of the signal-to-noise ratio has been known to the detection and attribution community, but has been buried in technical 'optimal fingerprinting' literature (e.g., Hasselmann 1979, Allen and Tett 1999), where it was used for an earlier detection of climate change by emphasizing aspects of the fingerprint of global warming associated with low variability in estimates of the observed warming. What, however, was not discussed was that the local signal-to-noise ratio is of interest also for local climate change: where temperatures emerge from the range visited by internal climate variability, it is reasonable to assume that changes in climate will also cause more

Recent Warming of Lake Kivu

PubMed Central

Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A.; Crowe, Sean A.; Hecky, Robert E.

2014-01-01

Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient. PMID:25295730

Recent warming of lake Kivu.

PubMed

Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A; Crowe, Sean A; Hecky, Robert E

2014-01-01

Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

Characterizing the Seasonality and Spatiotemporal Evolution of the U.S. Warming Hole

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partridge, T.; Winter, J.; Osterberg, E. C.; Magilligan, F. J.; Hyndman, D. W.; Kendall, A. D.

2017-12-01

Regions of the Eastern United States have experienced periods of cooling during the last half of the twentieth century inconsistent with broader global warming trends. While there have been a variety of mechanisms proposed to explain this "warming hole", the spatial and temporal definitions of the warming hole often differ across studies, potentially obfuscating the physical drivers leading to its existence. Further, a broad consensus on the causality of the warming hole has yet to be reached. We use daily temperature data from the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) to conduct a thorough characterization of the spatiotemporal evolution and seasonality of regional cooling across the Eastern U.S., and define a dynamic warming hole as the region of most persistent cooling. We find that the location of the dynamic warming hole varies by season from the Midwestern U.S. during summer to the Southeastern U.S. during winter. In addition, the cool period associated with the warming hole is characterized by an abrupt decrease in maximum temperature (Tx) and a decline in minimum temperature (Tn) around 1957. While average Tn values in the warming hole recover after the decline and increase from the mid 1960's to present, Tx values for the second half of the 20th century remain below observed values from the first half of the century. To explore large-scale atmospheric drivers of the dynamic warming hole, we correlate SST teleconnection and regional atmospheric circulation indices with seasonal temperature values from 1901-1957 and 1958-2015. We show that 1957 marks a shift, where winter temperatures in the warming hole become more correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and less correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Summer warming hole temperatures become less correlated with the NAO post 1957 and are strongly negatively correlated with precipitation.

Southern Hemisphere and deep-sea warming led deglacial atmospheric CO2 rise and tropical warming.

PubMed

Stott, Lowell; Timmermann, Axel; Thunell, Robert

2007-10-19

Establishing what caused Earth's largest climatic changes in the past requires a precise knowledge of both the forcing and the regional responses. We determined the chronology of high- and low-latitude climate change at the last glacial termination by radiocarbon dating benthic and planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope and magnesium/calcium records from a marine core collected in the western tropical Pacific. Deep-sea temperatures warmed by approximately 2 degrees C between 19 and 17 thousand years before the present (ky B.P.), leading the rise in atmospheric CO2 and tropical-surface-ocean warming by approximately 1000 years. The cause of this deglacial deep-water warming does not lie within the tropics, nor can its early onset between 19 and 17 ky B.P. be attributed to CO2 forcing. Increasing austral-spring insolation combined with sea-ice albedo feedbacks appear to be the key factors responsible for this warming.

The recent warming trend in North Greenland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Orsi, Anais J.; Kawamura, Kenji; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Fettweis, Xavier; Box, Jason E.; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Clow, Gary D.; Landais, Amaelle; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

2017-01-01

The Arctic is among the fastest warming regions on Earth, but it is also one with limited spatial coverage of multidecadal instrumental surface air temperature measurements. Consequently, atmospheric reanalyses are relatively unconstrained in this region, resulting in a large spread of estimated 30 year recent warming trends, which limits their use to investigate the mechanisms responsible for this trend. Here we present a surface temperature reconstruction over 1982–2011 at NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling Project, 51°W, 77°N), in North Greenland, based on the inversion of borehole temperature and inert gas isotope data. We find that NEEM has warmed by 2.7 ± 0.33°C over the past 30 years, from the long-term 1900–1970 average of −28.55 ± 0.29°C. The warming trend is principally caused by an increase in downward longwave heat flux. Atmospheric reanalyses underestimate this trend by 17%, underlining the need for more in situ observations to validate reanalyses.

Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents.

PubMed

Abram, Nerilie J; McGregor, Helen V; Tierney, Jessica E; Evans, Michael N; McKay, Nicholas P; Kaufman, Darrell S

2016-08-25

The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-ad 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.

Response of bean cultures' water use efficiency against climate warming in semiarid regions of China.

PubMed

Guoju, Xiao; Fengju, Zhang; Juying, Huang; Chengke, Luo; Jing, Wang; Fei, Ma; Yubi, Yao; Runyuan, Wang; Zhengji, Qiu

2016-07-31

Farm crop growing and high efficiency water resource utilizing are directly influenced by global warming, and a new challenge will be given to food and water resource security. A simulation experiment by farm warming with infrared ray radiator was carried out, and the result showed photosynthesis of broad bean was significantly faster than transpiration during the seedling stage, ramifying stage, budding stage, blooming stage and podding stage when the temperate was increased by 0.5-1.5 °C. But broad bean transpiration was faster than photosynthesis during the budding stage, blooming stage and podding stage when the temperature was increased by 1.5 °C above. The number of grain per hill and hundred-grain weight were significantly increased when the temperature was increased by 0.5-1.0 °C. But they significantly dropped and finally the yield decreased when the temperature was increased by 1.0 °C above. The broad bean yield decreased by 39.2-88.4% when the temperature was increased by 1.5-2.0 °C. The broad bean water use efficiency increased and then decreased with temperature rising. The water use efficiency increased when the temperature was increased by 1.0 °C below, and it quickly decreased when the temperature was increased by 1.0 °C above. In all, global warming in the future will significantly influence the growth, yield and water use efficiency of bean cultures in China's semiarid regions.

Variations in Ionospheric Peak Electron Density During Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in the Arctic Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yasyukevich, A. S.

2018-04-01

The focus of the paper is the ionospheric disturbances during sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in the Arctic region. This study examines the ionospheric behavior during 12 SSW events, which occurred in the Northern Hemisphere over 2006-2013, based on vertical sounding data from DPS-4 ionosonde located in Norilsk (88.0°E, 69.2°N). Most of the addressed events show that despite generally quiet geomagnetic conditions, notable changes in the ionospheric behavior are observed during SSWs. During the SSW evolution and peak phases, there is a daytime decrease in NmF2 values at 10-20% relative to background level. After the SSW maxima, in contrast, midday NmF2 surpasses the average monthly values for 10-20 days. These changes in the electron density are observed for both strong and weak stratospheric warmings occurring at midwinter. The revealed SSW effects in the polar ionosphere are assumed to be associated with changes in the thermospheric neutral composition, affecting the F2-layer electron density. Analysis of the Global Ultraviolet Imager data revealed the positive variations in the O/N2 ratio within the thermosphere during SSW peak and recovery periods. Probable mechanisms for SSW impact on the state of the high-latitude neutral thermosphere and ionosphere are discussed.

Tree communities of lowland warm-temperate old-growth and neighboring shelterbelt forests in the Shikoku region of southwestern Japan

Treesearch

Shigeo Kuramoto; Shigenori Oshioka; Takahisa Hirayama; Kaori Sato; Yasumasa Hirata

2007-01-01

We characterized the tree species composition of a 30 ha old-growth and neighboring shelterbelt (reserved buffer strips among conifer plantations) in warm-temperate forests in the Shikoku region of southwestern Japan. Using a two-way indicator species analysis of data from 28 plots, we identified four structural groups in terms of relative basal area. These structural...

Global warming and allergy in Asia Minor.

PubMed

Bajin, Munir Demir; Cingi, Cemal; Oghan, Fatih; Gurbuz, Melek Kezban

2013-01-01

The earth is warming, and it is warming quickly. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that global warming is correlated with the frequency of pollen-induced respiratory allergy and allergic diseases. There is a body of evidence suggesting that the prevalence of allergic diseases induced by pollens is increasing in developed countries, a trend that is also evident in the Mediterranean area. Because of its mild winters and sunny days with dry summers, the Mediterranean area is different from the areas of central and northern Europe. Classical examples of allergenic pollen-producing plants of the Mediterranean climate include Parietaria, Olea and Cupressaceae. Asia Minor is a Mediterranean region that connects Asia and Europe, and it includes considerable coastal areas. Gramineae pollens are the major cause of seasonal allergic rhinitis in Asia Minor, affecting 1.3-6.4 % of the population, in accordance with other European regions. This article emphasizes the importance of global climate change and anticipated increases in the prevalence and severity of allergic disease in Asia Minor, mediated through worsening air pollution and altered local and regional pollen production, from an otolaryngologic perspective.

The recent warming of permafrost in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osterkamp, T. E.

2005-12-01

This paper reports results of an experiment initiated in 1977 to determine the effects of climate on permafrost in Alaska. Permafrost observatories with boreholes were established along a north-south transect of Alaska in undisturbed permafrost terrain. The analysis and interpretation of annual temperature measurements in the boreholes and daily temperature measurements of the air, ground and permafrost surfaces made with automated temperature loggers are reported. Permafrost temperatures warmed along this transect coincident with a statewide warming of air temperatures that began in 1977. At two sites on the Arctic Coastal Plain, the warming was seasonal, greatest during "winter" months (October through May) and least during "summer" months (June through September). Permafrost temperatures peaked in the early 1980s and then decreased in response to slightly cooler air temperatures and thinner snow covers. Arctic sites began warming again typically about 1986 and Interior Alaska sites about 1988. Gulkana, the southernmost site, has been warming slowly since it was drilled in 1983. Air temperatures were relatively warm and snow covers were thicker-than-normal from the late 1980s into the late 1990s allowing permafrost temperatures to continue to warm. Temperatures at some sites leveled off or cooled slightly at the turn of the century. Two sites (Yukon River Bridge and Livengood) cooled during the period of observations. The magnitude of the total warming at the surface of the permafrost (through 2003) was 3 to 4 °C for the Arctic Coastal Plain, 1 to 2 °C for the Brooks Range including its northern and southern foothills, and 0.3 to 1 °C south of the Yukon River. While the data are sparse, permafrost is warming throughout the region north of the Brooks Range, southward along the transect from the Brooks Range to the Chugach Mountains (except for Yukon River and Livengood), in Interior Alaska throughout the Tanana River region, and in the region south of the

Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Camille; Michel, Clio; Seland Graff, Lise; Bethke, Ingo; Zappa, Giuseppe; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.; Fischer, Erich; Harvey, Ben J.; Iversen, Trond; King, Martin P.; Krishnan, Harinarayan; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Mitchell, Daniel; Scinocca, John; Shiogama, Hideo; Stone, Dáithí A.; Wettstein, Justin J.

2018-04-01

This study investigates the global response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of warming using the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts) ensemble, with a focus on the winter season. Characterising and understanding this response is critical for accurately assessing the near-term regional impacts of climate change and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as advocated by the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The HAPPI experimental design allows an assessment of uncertainty in the circulation response due to model dependence and internal variability. Internal variability is found to dominate the multi-model mean response of the jet streams, storm tracks, and stationary waves across most of the midlatitudes; larger signals in these features are mostly consistent with those seen in more strongly forced warming scenarios. Signals that emerge in the 1.5 °C experiment are a weakening of storm activity over North America, an inland shift of the North American stationary ridge, an equatorward shift of the North Pacific jet exit, and an equatorward intensification of the South Pacific jet. Signals that emerge under an additional 0.5 °C of warming include a poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet exit, an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track, and an intensification on the flanks of the Southern Hemisphere storm track. Case studies explore the implications of these circulation responses for precipitation impacts in the Mediterranean, in western Europe, and on the North American west coast, paying particular attention to possible outcomes at the tails of the response distributions. For example, the projected weakening of the Mediterranean storm track emerges in the 2 °C warmer world, with exceptionally dry decades becoming 5 times more likely.

Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion.

PubMed

Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Cai, Wenju; Zwiers, Francis W; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Donghyun

2016-07-01

The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) has warmed and grown substantially during the past century. The IPWP is Earth's largest region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), has the highest rainfall, and is fundamental to global atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle. The region has also experienced the world's highest rates of sea-level rise in recent decades, indicating large increases in ocean heat content and leading to substantial impacts on small island states in the region. Previous studies have considered mechanisms for the basin-scale ocean warming, but not the causes of the observed IPWP expansion, where expansion in the Indian Ocean has far exceeded that in the Pacific Ocean. We identify human and natural contributions to the observed IPWP changes since the 1950s by comparing observations with climate model simulations using an optimal fingerprinting technique. Greenhouse gas forcing is found to be the dominant cause of the observed increases in IPWP intensity and size, whereas natural fluctuations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have played a smaller yet significant role. Further, we show that the shape and impact of human-induced IPWP growth could be asymmetric between the Indian and Pacific basins, the causes of which remain uncertain. Human-induced changes in the IPWP have important implications for understanding and projecting related changes in monsoonal rainfall, and frequency or intensity of tropical storms, which have profound socioeconomic consequences.

The Summertime Warming Trends in Surface Water Temperature of the Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyama, N.; Kravtsov, S.; Roebber, P.

2014-12-01

Over the past 30 years, the Laurentian Great Lakes have exhibited summertime warming trends in surface water temperature which were greater than those in surface air temperature of the surrounding land, by as much as an order of magnitude over some of the regions. For the years 1995-2012, Lake Superior exhibited the most dramatic warming trend in July-mean temperature, of 0.27±0.15 deg. C yr-1, based on the NOAA's GLSEA satellite observations. Shallower lakes, such as Lake Erie, exhibited smaller warming trends. In addition, within each lake, the warming was also the greatest in the regions of larger water depth; for example, some regions of Lake Superior deeper than 200m exhibited surface-water July-mean warming trends which exceeded 0.3 deg. C yr-1. We used a three-column lake model based on the one developed by Hostetler and Barnstein (1990) coupled with a two-layer atmospheric energy balance model to explore the physics behind these warming trends. We found that, as suggested by Austin and Colman (2007), the ice-albedo feedback plays an important role in amplifying the overlake warming trends. Our particular emphasis was on the question of whether the ice-albedo feedback alone is enough to account for lacustrine amplification of surface warming observed over the Great Lakes region. We found that the answer to this question depends on a number of model parameters, including the diffusion and light attenuation coefficients, which greatly affect the model's skill in reproducing the observed ice coverage of the deep lakes.

Ionospheric reaction on sudden stratospheric warming events in Russiás Asia region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polyakova, Anna; Perevalova, Natalya; Chernigovskaya, Marina

2015-12-01

The response of the ionosphere to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Asian region of Russia is studied. Two SSW events observed in 2008-2009 and 2012-2013 winter periods of extreme solar minimum and moderate solar maximum are considered. To detect the ionospheric effects caused by SSWs, we carried out a joint analysis of global ionospheric maps (GIM) of the total electron content (TEC), MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder, EOS Aura) measurements of temperature vertical profiles, as well as NCEP/NCAR and UKMO Reanalysis data. For the first time, it was found that during strong SSWs, in the mid-latitude ionosphere the amplitude of diurnal TEC variation decreases nearly half compared to quiet days. At the same time, the intensity of TEC deviations from the background level increases. It was also found that at SSW peak the midday TEC maximum decreases, and night/morning TEC values increase compared to quiet days. It was shown that during SSWs, TEC dynamics was identical for different geophysical conditions.The response of the ionosphere to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Asian region of Russia is studied. Two SSW events observed in 2008-2009 and 2012-2013 winter periods of extreme solar minimum and moderate solar maximum are considered. To detect the ionospheric effects caused by SSWs, we carried out a joint analysis of global ionospheric maps (GIM) of the total electron content (TEC), MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder, EOS Aura) measurements of temperature vertical profiles, as well as NCEP/NCAR and UKMO Reanalysis data. For the first time, it was found that during strong SSWs, in the mid-latitude ionosphere the amplitude of diurnal TEC variation decreases nearly half compared to quiet days. At the same time, the intensity of TEC deviations from the background level increases. It was also found that at SSW peak the midday TEC maximum decreases, and night/morning TEC values increase compared to quiet days. It was shown that during SSWs, TEC dynamics was

Continuously amplified warming in the Alaskan Arctic: Implications for estimating global warming hiatus: SPATIAL COVERAGE AND BIAS IN TREND

DOE PAGES

Wang, Kang; Zhang, Tingjun; Zhang, Xiangdong; ...

2017-09-13

Historically, in-situ measurements have been notoriously sparse over the Arctic. As a consequence, the existing gridded data of Surface Air Temperature (SAT) may have large biases in estimating the warming trend in this region. Using data from an expanded monitoring network with 31 stations in the Alaskan Arctic, we demonstrate that the SAT has increased by 2.19 °C in this region, or at a rate of 0.23 °C/decade during 1921-2015. Mean- while, we found that the SAT warmed at 0.71 °C/decade over 1998-2015, which is two to three times faster than the rate established from the gridded datasets. Focusing onmore » the "hiatus" period 1998-2012 as identied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the SAT has increased at 0.45 °C/decade, which captures more than 90% of the regional trend for 1951- 2012. We suggest that sparse in-situ measurements are responsible for underestimation of the SAT change in the gridded datasets. It is likely that enhanced climate warming may also have happened in the other regions of the Arctic since the late 1990s but left undetected because of incomplete observational coverage.« less

Continuously amplified warming in the Alaskan Arctic: Implications for estimating global warming hiatus: SPATIAL COVERAGE AND BIAS IN TREND

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Kang; Zhang, Tingjun; Zhang, Xiangdong

Historically, in-situ measurements have been notoriously sparse over the Arctic. As a consequence, the existing gridded data of Surface Air Temperature (SAT) may have large biases in estimating the warming trend in this region. Using data from an expanded monitoring network with 31 stations in the Alaskan Arctic, we demonstrate that the SAT has increased by 2.19 °C in this region, or at a rate of 0.23 °C/decade during 1921-2015. Mean- while, we found that the SAT warmed at 0.71 °C/decade over 1998-2015, which is two to three times faster than the rate established from the gridded datasets. Focusing onmore » the "hiatus" period 1998-2012 as identied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the SAT has increased at 0.45 °C/decade, which captures more than 90% of the regional trend for 1951- 2012. We suggest that sparse in-situ measurements are responsible for underestimation of the SAT change in the gridded datasets. It is likely that enhanced climate warming may also have happened in the other regions of the Arctic since the late 1990s but left undetected because of incomplete observational coverage.« less

Plant community responses to experimental warming across the tundra biome

PubMed Central

Walker, Marilyn D.; Wahren, C. Henrik; Hollister, Robert D.; Henry, Greg H. R.; Ahlquist, Lorraine E.; Alatalo, Juha M.; Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia; Calef, Monika P.; Callaghan, Terry V.; Carroll, Amy B.; Epstein, Howard E.; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg S.; Klein, Julia A.; Magnússon, Borgþór; Molau, Ulf; Oberbauer, Steven F.; Rewa, Steven P.; Robinson, Clare H.; Shaver, Gaius R.; Suding, Katharine N.; Thompson, Catharine C.; Tolvanen, Anne; Totland, Ørjan; Turner, P. Lee; Tweedie, Craig E.; Webber, Patrick J.; Wookey, Philip A.

2006-01-01

Recent observations of changes in some tundra ecosystems appear to be responses to a warming climate. Several experimental studies have shown that tundra plants and ecosystems can respond strongly to environmental change, including warming; however, most studies were limited to a single location and were of short duration and based on a variety of experimental designs. In addition, comparisons among studies are difficult because a variety of techniques have been used to achieve experimental warming and different measurements have been used to assess responses. We used metaanalysis on plant community measurements from standardized warming experiments at 11 locations across the tundra biome involved in the International Tundra Experiment. The passive warming treatment increased plant-level air temperature by 1-3°C, which is in the range of predicted and observed warming for tundra regions. Responses were rapid and detected in whole plant communities after only two growing seasons. Overall, warming increased height and cover of deciduous shrubs and graminoids, decreased cover of mosses and lichens, and decreased species diversity and evenness. These results predict that warming will cause a decline in biodiversity across a wide variety of tundra, at least in the short term. They also provide rigorous experimental evidence that recently observed increases in shrub cover in many tundra regions are in response to climate warming. These changes have important implications for processes and interactions within tundra ecosystems and between tundra and the atmosphere. PMID:16428292

Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion

PubMed Central

Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Cai, Wenju; Zwiers, Francis W.; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Donghyun

2016-01-01

The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) has warmed and grown substantially during the past century. The IPWP is Earth’s largest region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), has the highest rainfall, and is fundamental to global atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle. The region has also experienced the world’s highest rates of sea-level rise in recent decades, indicating large increases in ocean heat content and leading to substantial impacts on small island states in the region. Previous studies have considered mechanisms for the basin-scale ocean warming, but not the causes of the observed IPWP expansion, where expansion in the Indian Ocean has far exceeded that in the Pacific Ocean. We identify human and natural contributions to the observed IPWP changes since the 1950s by comparing observations with climate model simulations using an optimal fingerprinting technique. Greenhouse gas forcing is found to be the dominant cause of the observed increases in IPWP intensity and size, whereas natural fluctuations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have played a smaller yet significant role. Further, we show that the shape and impact of human-induced IPWP growth could be asymmetric between the Indian and Pacific basins, the causes of which remain uncertain. Human-induced changes in the IPWP have important implications for understanding and projecting related changes in monsoonal rainfall, and frequency or intensity of tropical storms, which have profound socioeconomic consequences. PMID:27419228

Global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houghton, John

2005-06-01

'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources.

The Enigma of Io's Warm Polar Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matson, D. L.; Veeder, G. J.; Davies, A. G.; Johnson, T. V.; Blaney, D. L.

Io's polar temperatures are higher than expected for any passive surface. Data from the Galileo Photopolarimeter (PPR) show that minimum nighttime temperatures are in the range of 90 -95 K virtually everywhere [1]. This is particularly striking at high latitudes, within the polar regions. Furthermore, the distribution of minimum night- time temperatures across the surface of Io (away from the sunset terminator) shows little variation with latitude and/or time of night [1,2,3,4]. We consider suggested mechanisms for this elevated-minimum-temperature effect: 1) Polar terrain is warmer than expected because it is rough, 2) Higher latitudes have lower albedos, 3) Thermal inertia increases with latitude, and 4) Cooling lava controls nighttime temperatures. We find that the passive mechanisms fail. This leads to the suggestion that most of Io is covered by cooling lavas. In this context, lava cools to the observed temperature range on time scales of ten to ten thousand years depending upon the nature of the eruption scenario(s). Separately, analysis of thermal anomalies reveals that the trend of the data (log-cumulative-surface-area versus log-temperature) extrapolated to the entire surface area of Io predicts large- scale, ambient, temperatures in the 90-95 K range. Recent Galileo observations showing a myriad of small volcanic hot spots [7] provide strong support for the paradigm of ubiquitous volcanic activity with global, cooling-lava fields on Io. While explaining the high nighttime polar temperatures, this model displaces the previous explaination for Io's anomalously low 20 micron daytime emission. Explaining this emission is an important focus for current work. Warm polar regions appear to require some heat flow through very large areas in addition to the small, hot anomalies already known. This has implications for raising Io's global heat flow. Presently, the heat flow is constrained between a lower bound of ~2.5 W m -2[5] and an upper bound of ~13 W m -2

Variation of radiative forcings and global warming potentials from regional aviation NOx emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skowron, Agnieszka; Lee, David S.; De León, Ruben R.

2015-03-01

The response to hemispherical and regional aircraft NOx emissions is explored by using two climate metrics: radiative forcing (RF) and Global Warming Potential (GWP). The global chemistry transport model, MOZART-3 CTM, is applied in this study for a series of incremental aircraft NOx emission integrations to different regions. It was found that the sensitivity of chemical responses per unit emission rate from regional aircraft NOx emissions varies with size of aircraft NOx emission rate and that climate metric values decrease with increasing aircraft NOx emission rates, except for Southeast Asia. Previous work has recognized that aircraft NOx GWPs may vary regionally. However, the way in which these regional GWPs are calculated are critical. Previous studies have added a fixed amount of NOx to different regions. This approach can heavily bias the results of a regional GWP because of the well-established sensitivity of O3 production to background NOx whereby the Ozone Production Efficiency (OPE) is greater at small background NOx. Thus, even a small addition of NOx in a clean-air area can produce a large O3 response. Using this 'fixed addition' method of 0.035 Tg(N) yr-1, results in the greatest effect observed for North Atlantic and Brazil, ∼10.0 mW m-2/Tg(N) yr-1. An alternative 'proportional approach' is also taken that preserves the subtle balance of local NOx-O3-CH4 systems with the existing emission patterns of aircraft and background NOx, whereby a proportional amount of aircraft NOx, 5% (N) yr-1, is added to each region in order to determine the response. This results in the greatest effect observed for North Pacific that with its net NOx RF of 23.7 mW m-2/Tg(N) yr-1 is in contrast with the 'fixed addition' method. For determining regional NOx GWPs, it is argued that the 'proportional' approach gives more representative results. However, a constraint of both approaches is that the regional GWP determined is dependent on the relative global emission pattern

Future precipitation changes over China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming targets by using CORDEX regional climate models.

PubMed

Li, Huixin; Chen, Huopo; Wang, Huijun; Yu, Entao

2018-06-01

This study aims to characterize future changes in precipitation extremes over China based on regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-East Asia project. The results of five RCMs involved in CORDEX-East Asia project that driven by HadGEM2-AO are compared with the simulation of CMA-RegCM driven by BCC-CSM1.1. Eleven precipitation extreme indices that developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices are employed to evaluate precipitation extreme changes over China. Generally, RCMs can reproduce their spatiotemporal characteristics over China in comparison with observations. For future climate projections, RCMs indicate that both the occurrence and intensity of precipitation extremes in most regions of China will increase when the global temperature increases by 1.5/2.0 °C. The yearly maximum five-day precipitation (RX5D) averaged over China is reported to increase by 4.4% via the CMA-RegCM under the 1.5 °C warming in comparison with the baseline period (1986-2005); however, a relatively large increase of 11.1% is reported by the multi-model ensemble median (MME) when using the other five models. Furthermore, the reoccurring risks of precipitation extremes over most regions of China will further increase due to the additional 0.5 °C warming. For example, RX5D will further increase by approximately 8.9% over NWC, 3.8% over NC, 2.3% over SC, and approximately 1.0% over China. Extremes, such as the historical 20-year return period event of yearly maximum one-day precipitation (RX1D) and RX5D, will become more frequent, with occurrences happening once every 8.8 years (RX1D) and 11.5 years (RX5D) under the 1.5 °C warming target, and there will be two fewer years due to the additional 0.5 °C warming. In addition, the intensity of these events will increase by approximately 9.2% (8.5%) under the 1.5 °C warming target and 12.6% (11.0%) under the 2.0 °C warming

Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.

2012-12-01

Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.

Global warming triggers the loss of a key Arctic refugium

PubMed Central

Rühland, K. M.; Paterson, A. M.; Keller, W.; Michelutti, N.; Smol, J. P.

2013-01-01

We document the rapid transformation of one of the Earth's last remaining Arctic refugia, a change that is being driven by global warming. In stark contrast to the amplified warming observed throughout much of the Arctic, the Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) of subarctic Canada has maintained cool temperatures, largely due to the counteracting effects of persistent sea ice. However, since the mid-1990s, climate of the HBL has passed a tipping point, the pace and magnitude of which is exceptional even by Arctic standards, exceeding the range of regional long-term variability. Using high-resolution, palaeolimnological records of algal remains in dated lake sediment cores, we report that, within this short period of intense warming, striking biological changes have occurred in the region's freshwater ecosystems. The delayed and intense warming in this remote region provides a natural observatory for testing ecosystem resilience under a rapidly changing climate, in the absence of direct anthropogenic influences. The environmental repercussions of this climate change are of global significance, influencing the huge store of carbon in the region's extensive peatlands, the world's southern-most polar bear population that depends upon Hudson Bay sea ice and permafrost for survival, and native communities who rely on this landscape for sustenance. PMID:24107529

Global warming triggers the loss of a key Arctic refugium.

PubMed

Rühland, K M; Paterson, A M; Keller, W; Michelutti, N; Smol, J P

2013-12-07

We document the rapid transformation of one of the Earth's last remaining Arctic refugia, a change that is being driven by global warming. In stark contrast to the amplified warming observed throughout much of the Arctic, the Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) of subarctic Canada has maintained cool temperatures, largely due to the counteracting effects of persistent sea ice. However, since the mid-1990s, climate of the HBL has passed a tipping point, the pace and magnitude of which is exceptional even by Arctic standards, exceeding the range of regional long-term variability. Using high-resolution, palaeolimnological records of algal remains in dated lake sediment cores, we report that, within this short period of intense warming, striking biological changes have occurred in the region's freshwater ecosystems. The delayed and intense warming in this remote region provides a natural observatory for testing ecosystem resilience under a rapidly changing climate, in the absence of direct anthropogenic influences. The environmental repercussions of this climate change are of global significance, influencing the huge store of carbon in the region's extensive peatlands, the world's southern-most polar bear population that depends upon Hudson Bay sea ice and permafrost for survival, and native communities who rely on this landscape for sustenance.

Humid Heat Waves at different warming levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, S.; Sillmann, J.; Sterl, A.

2017-12-01

The co-occurrence of consecutive hot and humid days during a heat wave can strongly affect human health. Here, we quantify humid heat wave hazard in the recent past and at different levels of global warming.We find that the magnitude and apparent temperature peak of heat waves, such as the ones observed in Chicago in 1995 and China in 2003, have been strongly amplified by humidity. Climate model projections suggest that the percentage of area where heat wave magnitude and peak are amplified by humidity increases with increasing warming levels. Considering the effect of humidity at 1.5o and 2o global warming, highly populated regions, such as the Eastern US and China, could experience heat waves with magnitude greater than the one in Russia in 2010 (the most severe of the present era).The apparent temperature peak during such humid-heat waves can be greater than 55o. According to the US Weather Service, at this temperature humans are very likely to suffer from heat strokes. Humid-heat waves with these conditions were never exceeded in the present climate, but are expected to occur every other year at 4o global warming. This calls for respective adaptation measures in some key regions of the world along with international climate change mitigation efforts.

Hair cortisol levels of lactating dairy cows in cold- and warm-temperate regions in Japan.

PubMed

Uetake, Katsuji; Morita, Shigeru; Sakagami, Nobutada; Yamamoto, Kazuaki; Hashimura, Shinji; Tanaka, Toshio

2018-02-01

We compared the hair cortisol levels of lactating dairy cows in a cold- and a warm-temperate region out of four climatic zones in Japan. We simultaneously investigated the effects of calving number, lactation period and month of hair sampling. Hair of nine Holstein lactating cows chosen from each region (i.e. 18 cows per sampling) was sampled in March, June, September and December. Number of calvings (1, 2, ≥3) and lactation duration (early: <100, middle: 101-200, and late: >201 days) were balanced between regions. Cortisol was extracted from hair by methanol, and its level was determined with a cortisol immunoassay kit. A multi-way analysis of variance revealed that the effects of month of hair sampling (P < 0.001) and its combination with region (P < 0.05) were significant. In a multiple comparison test, significant differences (P < 0.01) in hair cortisol level (pg/mg of hair) were found between June (13.0 ± 1.0) and the other 3 months, and between September (1.6 ± 0.2) and December (4.5 ± 0.3). The rise in cortisol level from March to June was more intense in the cold-temperate region. These results demonstrate the necessity of considering seasonal variations in each climatic region when we use hair cortisol level as an indicator of stress. © 2017 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

Passive warming reduces stress and shifts reproductive effort in the Antarctic moss, Polytrichastrum alpinum

PubMed Central

Shortlidge, Erin E.; Eppley, Sarah M.; Kohler, Hans; Rosenstiel, Todd N.; Zúñiga, Gustavo E.; Casanova-Katny, Angélica

2017-01-01

Background and Aims The Western Antarctic Peninsula is one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, and many biotic communities inhabiting this dynamic region are responding to these well-documented climatic shifts. Yet some of the most prevalent organisms of terrestrial Antarctica, the mosses, and their responses to warming have been relatively overlooked and understudied. In this research, the impacts of 6 years of passive warming were investigated using open top chambers (OTCs), on moss communities of Fildes Peninsula, King George Island, Antarctica. Methods The effects of experimental passive warming on the morphology, sexual reproductive effort and stress physiology of a common dioicous Antarctic moss, Polytrichastrum alpinum, were tested, gaining the first species-specific mechanistic insight into moss responses to warming in the Antarctic. Additionally community analyses were conducted examining the impact of warming on overall moss percentage cover and sporophyte production in intact Antarctic moss communities. Key Results Our results show a generally greater percentage moss cover under warming conditions as well as increased gametangia production in P. alpinum. Distinct morphological and physiological shifts in P. alpinum were found under passive warming compared with those without warming: warmed mosses reduced investment in cellular stress defences, but invested more towards primary productivity and gametangia development. Conclusions Taken together, results from this study of mosses under passive warming imply that in ice-free moss-dominated regions, continued climate warming will probably have profound impacts on moss biology and colonization along the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Such findings highlight the fundamental role that mosses will play in influencing the terrestrialization of a warming Antarctica. PMID:27794516

Rationale for Implementation of Warm Cardiac Surgery in Pediatrics

PubMed Central

Durandy, Yves

2016-01-01

Cardiac surgery was developed thanks to the introduction of hypothermia and cardiopulmonary bypass in the early 1950s. The deep hypothermia protective effect has been essential to circulatory arrest complex cases repair. During the early times of open-heart surgery, a major concern was to decrease mortality and to improve short-term outcomes. Both mortality and morbidity dramatically decreased over a few decades. As a consequence, the drawbacks of deep hypothermia, with or without circulatory arrest, became more and more apparent. The limitation of hypothermia was particularly evident for the brain and regional perfusion was introduced as a response to this problem. Despite a gain in popularity, the results of regional perfusion were not fully convincing. In the 1990s, warm surgery was introduced in adults and proved to be safe and reliable. This option eliminates the deleterious effect of ischemia–reperfusion injuries through a continuous, systemic coronary perfusion with warm oxygenated blood. Intermittent warm blood cardioplegia was introduced later, with impressive results. We were convinced by the easiness, safety, and efficiency of warm surgery and shifted to warm pediatric surgery in a two-step program. This article outlines the limitations of hypothermic protection and the basic reasons that led us to implement pediatric warm surgery. After tens of thousands of cases performed across several centers, this reproducible technique proved a valuable alternative to hypothermic surgery. PMID:27200324

Rationale for Implementation of Warm Cardiac Surgery in Pediatrics.

PubMed

Durandy, Yves

2016-01-01

Cardiac surgery was developed thanks to the introduction of hypothermia and cardiopulmonary bypass in the early 1950s. The deep hypothermia protective effect has been essential to circulatory arrest complex cases repair. During the early times of open-heart surgery, a major concern was to decrease mortality and to improve short-term outcomes. Both mortality and morbidity dramatically decreased over a few decades. As a consequence, the drawbacks of deep hypothermia, with or without circulatory arrest, became more and more apparent. The limitation of hypothermia was particularly evident for the brain and regional perfusion was introduced as a response to this problem. Despite a gain in popularity, the results of regional perfusion were not fully convincing. In the 1990s, warm surgery was introduced in adults and proved to be safe and reliable. This option eliminates the deleterious effect of ischemia-reperfusion injuries through a continuous, systemic coronary perfusion with warm oxygenated blood. Intermittent warm blood cardioplegia was introduced later, with impressive results. We were convinced by the easiness, safety, and efficiency of warm surgery and shifted to warm pediatric surgery in a two-step program. This article outlines the limitations of hypothermic protection and the basic reasons that led us to implement pediatric warm surgery. After tens of thousands of cases performed across several centers, this reproducible technique proved a valuable alternative to hypothermic surgery.

Vegetation masking effect on future warming and snow albedo feedback in a boreal forest region of northern Eurasia according to MIROC-ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, Manabu; Takata, Kumiko; Kawamiya, Michio; Watanabe, Shingo

2017-09-01

The Earth system model, Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-Earth system model (MIROC-ESM), in which the leaf area index (LAI) is calculated interactively with an ecological land model, simulated future changes in the snow water equivalent under the scenario of global warming. Using MIROC-ESM, the effects of the snow albedo feedback (SAF) in a boreal forest region of northern Eurasia were examined under the possible climate future scenario RCP8.5. The simulated surface air temperature (SAT) in spring greatly increases across Siberia and the boreal forest region, whereas the snow cover decreases remarkably only in western Eurasia. The large increase in SAT across Siberia is attributed to strong SAF, which is caused by both the reduced snow-covered fraction and the reduced surface albedo of the snow-covered portion due to the vegetation masking effect in those grid cells. A comparison of the future changes with and without interactive LAI changes shows that in Siberia, the vegetation masking effect increases the spring SAF by about two or three times and enhances the spring warming by approximately 1.5 times. This implies that increases in vegetation biomass in the future are a potential contributing factor to warming trends and that further research on the vegetation masking effect is needed for reliable future projection.

Localized rapid warming of West Antarctic subsurface waters by remote winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, Paul; Holmes, Ryan M.; Hogg, Andrew Mcc.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Stewart, Kial D.; England, Matthew H.

2017-08-01

The highest rates of Antarctic glacial ice mass loss are occurring to the west of the Antarctica Peninsula in regions where warming of subsurface continental shelf waters is also largest. However, the physical mechanisms responsible for this warming remain unknown. Here we show how localized changes in coastal winds off East Antarctica can produce significant subsurface temperature anomalies (>2 °C) around much of the continent. We demonstrate how coastal-trapped barotropic Kelvin waves communicate the wind disturbance around the Antarctic coastline. The warming is focused on the western flank of the Antarctic Peninsula because the circulation induced by the coastal-trapped waves is intensified by the steep continental slope there, and because of the presence of pre-existing warm subsurface water offshore. The adjustment to the coastal-trapped waves shoals the subsurface isotherms and brings warm deep water upwards onto the continental shelf and closer to the coast. This result demonstrates the vulnerability of the West Antarctic region to a changing climate.

Effect of climate warming on the annual terrestrial net ecosystem CO 2 exchange globally in the boreal and temperate regions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Zhiyuan; Zhang, Renduo; Cescatti, Alessandro

The net ecosystem CO 2 exchange is the result of the imbalance between the assimilation process (gross primary production, GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE). The aim of this study was to investigate temperature sensitivities of these processes and the effect of climate warming on the annual terrestrial net ecosystem CO 2 exchange globally in the boreal and temperate regions. A database of 403 site-years of ecosystem flux data at 101 sites in the world was collected and analyzed. Temperature sensitivities of rates of RE and GPP were quantified with Q 10, defined as the increase of RE (or GPP) ratesmore » with a temperature rise of 10 °C. Results showed that on the annual time scale, the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of GPP (Q 10sG) was higher than or equivalent to the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of RE (Q 10sR). Q 10sG was negatively correlated to the mean annual temperature (MAT), whereas Q 10sR was independent of MAT. The analysis of the current temperature sensitivities and net ecosystem production suggested that temperature rise might enhance the CO 2 sink of terrestrial ecosystems both in the boreal and temperate regions. Additionally, ecosystems in these regions with different plant functional types should sequester more CO 2 with climate warming.« less

Effect of climate warming on the annual terrestrial net ecosystem CO2 exchange globally in the boreal and temperate regions.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhiyuan; Zhang, Renduo; Cescatti, Alessandro; Wohlfahrt, Georg; Buchmann, Nina; Zhu, Juan; Chen, Guanhong; Moyano, Fernando; Pumpanen, Jukka; Hirano, Takashi; Takagi, Kentaro; Merbold, Lutz

2017-06-08

The net ecosystem CO 2 exchange is the result of the imbalance between the assimilation process (gross primary production, GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE). The aim of this study was to investigate temperature sensitivities of these processes and the effect of climate warming on the annual terrestrial net ecosystem CO 2 exchange globally in the boreal and temperate regions. A database of 403 site-years of ecosystem flux data at 101 sites in the world was collected and analyzed. Temperature sensitivities of rates of RE and GPP were quantified with Q 10 , defined as the increase of RE (or GPP) rates with a temperature rise of 10 °C. Results showed that on the annual time scale, the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of GPP (Q 10sG ) was higher than or equivalent to the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of RE (Q 10sR ). Q 10sG was negatively correlated to the mean annual temperature (MAT), whereas Q 10sR was independent of MAT. The analysis of the current temperature sensitivities and net ecosystem production suggested that temperature rise might enhance the CO 2 sink of terrestrial ecosystems both in the boreal and temperate regions. In addition, ecosystems in these regions with different plant functional types should sequester more CO 2 with climate warming.

Effect of climate warming on the annual terrestrial net ecosystem CO 2 exchange globally in the boreal and temperate regions

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Zhiyuan; Zhang, Renduo; Cescatti, Alessandro; ...

2017-06-08

The net ecosystem CO 2 exchange is the result of the imbalance between the assimilation process (gross primary production, GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE). The aim of this study was to investigate temperature sensitivities of these processes and the effect of climate warming on the annual terrestrial net ecosystem CO 2 exchange globally in the boreal and temperate regions. A database of 403 site-years of ecosystem flux data at 101 sites in the world was collected and analyzed. Temperature sensitivities of rates of RE and GPP were quantified with Q 10, defined as the increase of RE (or GPP) ratesmore » with a temperature rise of 10 °C. Results showed that on the annual time scale, the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of GPP (Q 10sG) was higher than or equivalent to the intrinsic temperature sensitivity of RE (Q 10sR). Q 10sG was negatively correlated to the mean annual temperature (MAT), whereas Q 10sR was independent of MAT. The analysis of the current temperature sensitivities and net ecosystem production suggested that temperature rise might enhance the CO 2 sink of terrestrial ecosystems both in the boreal and temperate regions. Additionally, ecosystems in these regions with different plant functional types should sequester more CO 2 with climate warming.« less

Continuous tonic spike activity in spider warm cells in the absence of sensory input.

PubMed

Gingl, E; Tichy, H

2006-09-01

The warm cells of the spider tarsal organ respond very sensitively to low-amplitude changes in temperature and discharge continuously as the rate of change in temperature reaches zero. To test whether the continuous tonic discharge remains without sensory input, we blocked the warm cell's receptive region by Epoxy glue. The activity continued in this situation, but its dependence on temperature changes was strongly reduced. We interpret this to mean that the warm cells exhibit specific intrinsic properties that underlie the generation of the tonic discharge. Experiments with electrical stimulation confirmed the observation that the warm cells persist in activity without an external drive. In warm cells with blocked receptive region, the response curves describing the relationship between the tonic discharge and the level of depolarization is the same for different temperatures. In warm cells with intact receptive region, the curves are shifted upward with rising temperature, as if the injected current is simply added to the receptor current. This indicates a modulating effect of the receptor current on the tonic discharge. Stimulation causes a change in the tonic discharge rate and thereby enables individual warm cells to signal the direction in addition to the magnitude of temperature changes.

Warming effects on permafrost ecosystem carbon fluxes associated with plant nutrients.

PubMed

Li, Fei; Peng, Yunfeng; Natali, Susan M; Chen, Kelong; Han, Tianfeng; Yang, Guibiao; Ding, Jinzhi; Zhang, Dianye; Wang, Guanqin; Wang, Jun; Yu, Jianchun; Liu, Futing; Yang, Yuanhe

2017-11-01

Large uncertainties exist in carbon (C)-climate feedback in permafrost regions, partly due to an insufficient understanding of warming effects on nutrient availabilities and their subsequent impacts on vegetation C sequestration. Although a warming climate may promote a substantial release of soil C to the atmosphere, a warming-induced increase in soil nutrient availability may enhance plant productivity, thus offsetting C loss from microbial respiration. Here, we present evidence that the positive temperature effect on carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes may be weakened by reduced plant nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) concentrations in a Tibetan permafrost ecosystem. Although experimental warming initially enhanced ecosystem CO 2 uptake, the increased rate disappeared after the period of peak plant growth during the early growing season, even though soil moisture was not a limiting factor in this swamp meadow ecosystem. We observed that warming did not significantly affect soil extractable N or P during the period of peak growth, but decreased both N and P concentrations in the leaves of dominant plant species, likely caused by accelerated plant senescence in the warmed plots. The attenuated warming effect on CO 2 assimilation during the late growing season was associated with lowered leaf N and P concentrations. These findings suggest that warming-mediated nutrient changes may not always benefit ecosystem C uptake in permafrost regions, making our ability to predict the C balance in these warming-sensitive ecosystems more challenging than previously thought. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Arctic Warming Signals from Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.

2005-01-01

Global warming signals are expected to be amplified in the Arctic primarily because of ice-albedo feedback associated with the high reflectivity of ice and snow that blankets much of the region. The Arctic had been a poorly explored territory basically because of its general inaccessibility on account of extremely harsh weather conditions and the dominant presence of thick perennial ice in the region. The advent of satellite remote sensing systems since the 1960s, however, enabled the acquisition of synoptic data that depict in good spatial detail the temporal changes of many Arctic surface parameters. Among the surface parameters that have been studied using space based systems are surface temperature, sea ice concentration, snow cover, surface albedo and phytoplankton concentration. Associated atmospheric parameters, such as cloud cover, temperature profile, ozone concentration, and aerosol have also been derived. Recent observational and phenomenological studies have indeed revealed progressively changing conditions in the Arctic during the last few decades (e g , Walsh et al. 1996; Serreze et al 2000; Comiso and Parkinson 2004). The changes included declines in the extent and area of surfaces covered by sea ice and snow, increases in melt area over the Greenland ice sheets, thawing of the permafrost, warming in the troposphere, and retreat of the glaciers. These observations are consistent with the observed global warming that has been associated with the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Karl and Trenberth 2003) and confirmed by modeling studies (Holland and Bitz, 2003). The Arctic system, however, is still not well understood complicated by a largely fluctuating wind circulation and atmospheric conditions (Proshutinsky and Johnson 1997) and controlled by what is now known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which provides a measure of the strength of atmospheric activities in the region (Thompson and Wallace 1998). Meanwhile, the

Passive warming reduces stress and shifts reproductive effort in the Antarctic moss, Polytrichastrum alpinum.

PubMed

Shortlidge, Erin E; Eppley, Sarah M; Kohler, Hans; Rosenstiel, Todd N; Zúñiga, Gustavo E; Casanova-Katny, Angélica

2017-01-01

The Western Antarctic Peninsula is one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, and many biotic communities inhabiting this dynamic region are responding to these well-documented climatic shifts. Yet some of the most prevalent organisms of terrestrial Antarctica, the mosses, and their responses to warming have been relatively overlooked and understudied. In this research, the impacts of 6 years of passive warming were investigated using open top chambers (OTCs), on moss communities of Fildes Peninsula, King George Island, Antarctica. The effects of experimental passive warming on the morphology, sexual reproductive effort and stress physiology of a common dioicous Antarctic moss, Polytrichastrum alpinum ,: were tested, gaining the first species-specific mechanistic insight into moss responses to warming in the Antarctic. Additionally community analyses were conducted examining the impact of warming on overall moss percentage cover and sporophyte production in intact Antarctic moss communities. Our results show a generally greater percentage moss cover under warming conditions as well as increased gametangia production in P. alpinum Distinct morphological and physiological shifts in P. alpinum were found under passive warming compared with those without warming: warmed mosses reduced investment in cellular stress defences, but invested more towards primary productivity and gametangia development. Taken together, results from this study of mosses under passive warming imply that in ice-free moss-dominated regions, continued climate warming will probably have profound impacts on moss biology and colonization along the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Such findings highlight the fundamental role that mosses will play in influencing the terrestrialization of a warming Antarctica. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impact of Ocean Warming on Tropical Cyclone Size and Its Destructiveness.

PubMed

Sun, Yuan; Zhong, Zhong; Li, Tim; Yi, Lan; Hu, Yijia; Wan, Hongchao; Chen, Haishan; Liao, Qianfeng; Ma, Chen; Li, Qihua

2017-08-15

The response of tropical cyclone (TC) destructive potential to global warming is an open issue. A number of previous studies have ignored the effect of TC size change in the context of global warming, which resulted in a significant underestimation of the TC destructive potential. The lack of reliable and consistent historical data on TC size limits the confident estimation of the linkage between the observed trend in TC size and that in sea surface temperature (SST) under the background of global climate warming. A regional atmospheric model is used in the present study to investigate the response of TC size and TC destructive potential to increases in SST. The results show that a large-scale ocean warming can lead to not only TC intensification but also TC expansion. The TC size increase in response to the ocean warming is possibly attributed to the increase in atmospheric convective instability in the TC outer region below the middle troposphere, which facilitates the local development of grid-scale ascending motion, low-level convergence and the acceleration of tangential winds. The numerical results indicate that TCs will become stronger, larger, and unexpectedly more destructive under global warming.

Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Donghyun; Min, Seung-Ki; Fischer, Erich; Shiogama, Hideo; Bethke, Ingo; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Scinocca, John F.

2018-04-01

This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events, exerting devastating impacts on the human and natural system over the Asian monsoon region.

Hydrologic Response and Watershed Sensitivity to Climate Warming in California's Sierra Nevada

PubMed Central

Null, Sarah E.; Viers, Joshua H.; Mount, Jeffrey F.

2010-01-01

This study focuses on the differential hydrologic response of individual watersheds to climate warming within the Sierra Nevada mountain region of California. We describe climate warming models for 15 west-slope Sierra Nevada watersheds in California under unimpaired conditions using WEAP21, a weekly one-dimensional rainfall-runoff model. Incremental climate warming alternatives increase air temperature uniformly by 2°, 4°, and 6°C, but leave other climatic variables unchanged from observed values. Results are analyzed for changes in mean annual flow, peak runoff timing, and duration of low flow conditions to highlight which watersheds are most resilient to climate warming within a region, and how individual watersheds may be affected by changes to runoff quantity and timing. Results are compared with current water resources development and ecosystem services in each watershed to gain insight into how regional climate warming may affect water supply, hydropower generation, and montane ecosystems. Overall, watersheds in the northern Sierra Nevada are most vulnerable to decreased mean annual flow, southern-central watersheds are most susceptible to runoff timing changes, and the central portion of the range is most affected by longer periods with low flow conditions. Modeling results suggest the American and Mokelumne Rivers are most vulnerable to all three metrics, and the Kern River is the most resilient, in part from the high elevations of the watershed. Our research seeks to bridge information gaps between climate change modeling and regional management planning, helping to incorporate climate change into the development of regional adaptation strategies for Sierra Nevada watersheds. PMID:20368984

Localized Rapid Warming of West Antarctic Subsurface Waters by Remote Winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffies, S. M.; Spence, P.; Holmes, R.; Hogg, A. M.; Stewart, K. D.; England, M. H.

2017-12-01

The largest rates of Antarctic glacial ice mass loss are occurring tothe west of the Antarctica Peninsula in regions where warming ofsubsurface continental shelf waters is also largest. However, thephysical mechanisms responsible for this warming remain unknown. Herewe show how localized changes in coastal winds off East Antarctica canproduce significant subsurface temperature anomalies (>2C) around theentire continent. We demonstrate how coastal-trapped Kelvin wavescommunicate the wind disturbance around the Antarctic coastline. Thewarming is focused on the western flank of the Antarctic Peninsulabecause the anomalous circulation induced by the coastal-trapped wavesis intensified by the steep continental slope there, and because ofthe presence of pre-existing warm subsurface water. Thecoastal-trapped waves leads to an adjustment of the flow that shoalsisotherms and brings warm deep water upwards onto the continentalshelf and closer to the coast. This result demonstrates the uniquevulnerability of the West Antarctic region to a changing climate.

Radiative Cooling of Warm Molecular Gas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neufeld, David A.; Kaufman, Michael J.

1993-01-01

We consider the radiative cooling of warm (T >= 100 K), fully molecular astrophysical gas by rotational and vibrational transitions of the molecules H2O, CO, and H2. Using an escape probability method to solve for the molecular level populations, we have obtained the cooling rate for each molecule as a function of temperature, density, and an optical depth parameter. A four-parameter expression proves useful in fitting the run of cooling rate with density for any fixed values of the temperature and optical depth parameter. We identify the various cooling mechanisms which are dominant in different regions of the astrophysically relevant parameter space. Given the assumption that water is very abundant in warm regions of the interstellar medium, H2O rotational transitions are found to dominate the cooling of warm interstellar gas over a wide portion of the parameter space considered. While chemical models for the interstellar medium make the strong prediction that water will be produced copiously at temperatures above a few hundred degrees, our assumption of a high water abundance has yet to be tested observationally. The Infrared Space Observatory and the Submillimeter Wave Astronomy Satellite will prove ideal instruments for testing whether water is indeed an important coolant of interstellar and circumstellar gas.

Analysis of three echo-trainings of a rainstorm in the South China warm region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Zhiying; Qian, Lei; Zhao, Xiangjun; Xia, Fan

2018-06-01

A rainstorm which occurred between May 22 and 23, 2014 in Guangdong Province of the South China warm region was simulated by using the ARW-WRF model. Three "echo-trainings" over the rainstorm center were analyzed and the results of both the simulation and observational analysis showed that this rainstorm process was composed of three stages. In the first stage, gravity waves triggered the simultaneous but relatively independent formation of linear convection and convective cells, which moved toward the northeast through the rain center, thus creating the echo-training. In the second stage, with the formation of cold outflow, new convective cells were continuously created in the southwest and northwest of the rain area and then gradually moved to merge into the northeast rain area, thus forming a new echo-training. In the third stage, multiple rain bands above the rain area moved southeastward and passed through the strongest precipitation center, thus creating the third echo-training. The model simulation showed that a substantial warming appeared at 900 hPa before the convective initiation, leading to the formation of a stable layer below 900 hPa, which was the primary cause for the gravity waves that triggered the multiple convective cells. The multiple convective cells formed the convective line, following which new convection was formed from the cold outflow in its southwest and northwest directions. The new convection in the southwest maintained the rain band; however, the new convection in the northwest, combined with the rain band of the north, formed a large radar reflectivity area and consequently, a larger MCS.

Analysis of three echo-trainings of a rainstorm in the South China warm region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Zhiying; Qian, Lei; Zhao, Xiangjun; Xia, Fan

2017-07-01

A rainstorm which occurred between May 22 and 23, 2014 in Guangdong Province of the South China warm region was simulated by using the ARW-WRF model. Three "echo-trainings" over the rainstorm center were analyzed and the results of both the simulation and observational analysis showed that this rainstorm process was composed of three stages. In the first stage, gravity waves triggered the simultaneous but relatively independent formation of linear convection and convective cells, which moved toward the northeast through the rain center, thus creating the echo-training. In the second stage, with the formation of cold outflow, new convective cells were continuously created in the southwest and northwest of the rain area and then gradually moved to merge into the northeast rain area, thus forming a new echo-training. In the third stage, multiple rain bands above the rain area moved southeastward and passed through the strongest precipitation center, thus creating the third echo-training. The model simulation showed that a substantial warming appeared at 900 hPa before the convective initiation, leading to the formation of a stable layer below 900 hPa, which was the primary cause for the gravity waves that triggered the multiple convective cells. The multiple convective cells formed the convective line, following which new convection was formed from the cold outflow in its southwest and northwest directions. The new convection in the southwest maintained the rain band; however, the new convection in the northwest, combined with the rain band of the north, formed a large radar reflectivity area and consequently, a larger MCS.

Impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C on precipitation patterns in China by regional climate model (COSMO-CLM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Hemin; Wang, Anqian; Zhai, Jianqing; Huang, Jinlong; Wang, Yanjun; Wen, Shanshan; Zeng, Xiaofan; Su, Buda

2018-05-01

Regional precipitation patterns may change in a warmer climate, thereby increasing flood and drought risks. In this paper, annual, annual maximum, intense, heavy, moderate, light, and trace precipitation are employed as indicators to assess changes in precipitation patterns under two scenarios in which the global mean temperature increases by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C relative to pre-industrial levels using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The results show that annual precipitation in China will be approximately 2.5% higher under 1.5 °C warming relative to the present-day baseline (1980-2009), although it will decrease by approximately 4.0% under an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. This trend is spatially consistent for regions with annual precipitation of 400-800 mm, which has experienced a drying trend during the past half century; thus, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may mitigate these drying conditions. The annual maximum precipitation continues to increase from present day levels to the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Relative to the baseline period, the frequency of trace and light precipitation days exhibits a negative trend, while that of moderate, heavy, and intense precipitation days has a positive trend under the 1.5 °C warming scenario. For the 2.0 °C warming world, the frequency of days is projected to decrease for all precipitation categories, although the intensity of intense precipitation increases. Spatially, a decrease in the number of precipitation days is expected to continue in central and northern China, where a drying trend has persisted over the past half century. Southeastern China, which already suffers greatly from flooding, is expected to face more heavy and intense precipitation with an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. Meanwhile, the intensity of intense precipitation is expected to increase in northern China, and the contribution of light and moderate precipitation to the annual

Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming.

PubMed

Carey, Joanna C; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H; Kroeger, Kevin D; Crowther, Thomas W; Burton, Andrew J; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D; Heskel, Mary A; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; Collins, Scott L; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C; Enquist, Brian J; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M; Peñuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward; Reinmann, Andrew B; Reynolds, Lorien L; Schmidt, Inger K; Shaver, Gaius R; Strong, Aaron L; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert

2016-11-29

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming.

Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carey, Joanna C.; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H.; Kroeger, Kevin D.; Crowther, Thomas W.; Burton, Andrew J.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D.; Heskel, Mary A.; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B.; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B.; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D.; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; Collins, Scott L.; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C.; Enquist, Brian J.; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R.; Steenberg Larsen, Klaus; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M.; Penuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward B.; Reinmann, Andrew B.; Reynolds, Lorien L.; Schmidt, Inger K.; Shaver, Gaius R.; Strong, Aaron L.; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert

2016-01-01

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming.

Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming

PubMed Central

Carey, Joanna C.; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H.; Kroeger, Kevin D.; Crowther, Thomas W.; Burton, Andrew J.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D.; Heskel, Mary A.; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B.; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B.; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D.; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C.; Enquist, Brian J.; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R.; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M.; Peñuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward; Reinmann, Andrew B.; Reynolds, Lorien L.; Schmidt, Inger K.; Shaver, Gaius R.; Strong, Aaron L.; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert

2016-01-01

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming. PMID:27849609

Ionospheric variations during sudden stratospheric warming in the high- and mid-latitude regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yasyukevich, Anna; Voeykov, Sergey; Mylnikova, Anna

2017-04-01

The ionospheric dynamic in the high- and middle-latitude regions during the periods of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) was studied by using the international network of phase dual-frequency GPS/GLONASS receivers and the vertical sounding data. Twelve SSW events that occurred in the Northern Hemisphere 2006 through 2013 were considered. In order to identify the possible response of the ionosphere to SSW events, we carried out the analysis of the total electron (TEC) and the F2-layer maximum electron density (NmF2) deviations from the background level. We have also studied changes of the level of total electron content (TEC) wave-like variations characterized by a special index WTEC. The index reflects the intensity of medium- and large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances. The dynamics of the high- and middle-latitude ionosphere at the points near the SSW areas was found to differ from the regular. For a large number of events, it is shown that, despite quiet geomagnetic conditions, a noticeable decrease in the NmF2 and TEC values (by 5-10% relative to the background level) is observed during the SSW evolution and maximum stages. On the contrary, for 10-20 days after the SSW maxima, NmF2 and TEC significantly exceed the monthly averaged values. Moreover, these electron density changes are observed for both strong and weak stratospheric warmings, and are recorded mainly during daytime. The observed SSW effects in the polar and mid-latitude ionosphere are assumed to be probably associated with the changes in the neutral composition at the thermospheric heights that affect the F2-layer electron density. The study is supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research under Grant No. 16-35-60018, as well as by the RF President Grant of Public Support for RF Leading Scientific Schools (NSh-6894.2016.5).

More losers than winners in a century of future Southern Ocean seafloor warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, Huw J.; Meijers, Andrew J. S.; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.

2017-10-01

The waters of the Southern Ocean are projected to warm over the coming century, with potential adverse consequences for native cold-adapted organisms. Warming waters have caused temperate marine species to shift their ranges poleward. The seafloor animals of the Southern Ocean shelf have long been isolated by the deep ocean surrounding Antarctica and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with little scope for southward migration. How these largely endemic species will react to future projected warming is unknown. By considering 963 invertebrate species, we show that within the current century, warming temperatures alone are unlikely to result in wholesale extinction or invasion affecting Antarctic seafloor life. However, 79% of Antarctica's endemic species do face a significant reduction in suitable temperature habitat (an average 12% reduction). Our findings highlight the species and regions most likely to respond significantly (negatively and positively) to warming and have important implications for future management of the region.

Investigate the plant biomass response to climate warming in permafrost ecosystem using matrix-based data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, X.; Du, Z.; Schuur, E.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Permafrost is one of the most vulnerable regions on the earth with over 40% world soil C represented in this region. Future climate warming potentially has a great impact on this region. On one hand, rising temperature accelerates permafrost soil thaw and release more C from land. On the other hand, warming may also increase the plant growing season length and therefore negatively feedback to climate change by increasing annual land C uptake. However, whether permafrost vegetation biomass change in response to warming can sequester more C has not been well understood. Manipulated air warming experiments reported that air warming has very limited impacts on grass land productivity and biomass growth in permafrost region [Mauritz et al., 2017]. It is hard to reveal the mechanisms behind the limited air warming response directly from experiment data. We employ a vegetation C cycle matrix model based on Community land model 4.5 (CLM4.5) and data assimilation technique to investigate how much do phenology and physiology processes contribute to the response respectively. Our results indicate phenology contributes the most in response to warming. The shift of vegetation parameter distributions after 2012 indicate vegetation acclimation may explain the modest response in plant biomass to air warming. The results suggest future model development need to take vegetation acclimation more seriously. The novel matrix-based model allows data assimilation to be conducted more efficiently. It provides more functional understanding of the models as well as the mechanism behind experiment data.

Increasing frequency and duration of Arctic winter warming events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, R. M.; Cohen, L.; Petty, A.; Boisvert, L.; Rinke, A.; Hudson, S. R.; Nicolaus, M.; Granskog, M. A.

2017-12-01

Record low Arctic sea ice extents were observed during the last three winter seasons (March). During each of these winters, near-surface air temperatures close to 0°C were observed, in situ, over sea ice in the central Arctic. Recent media reports and scientific studies suggest that such winter warming events were unprecedented for the Arctic. Here we use in situ winter (December-March) temperature observations, such as those from Soviet North Pole drifting stations and ocean buoys, to determine how common Arctic winter warming events are. The earliest record we find of a winter warming event was in March 1896, where a temperature of -3.7˚C was observed at 84˚N during the Fram expedition. Observations of winter warming events exist over most of the Arctic Basin. Despite a limited observational network, temperatures exceeding -5°C were measured in situ during more than 30% of winters from 1954 to 2010, by either North Pole drifting stations or ocean buoys. Correlation coefficients between the atmospheric reanalysis, ERA-Interim, and these in-situ temperature records are shown to be on the order of 0.90. This suggests that ERA-Interim is a suitable tool for studying Arctic winter warming events. Using the ERA-Interim record (1979-2016), we show that the North Pole (NP) region typically experiences 10 warming events (T2m > -10°C) per winter, compared with only five in the Pacific Central Arctic (PCA). We find a positive trend in the overall duration of winter warming events for both the NP region (4.25 days/decade) and PCA (1.16 days/decade), due to an increased number of events of longer duration.

Elevation-dependent warming in global climate model simulations at high spatial resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palazzi, Elisa; Mortarini, Luca; Terzago, Silvia; von Hardenberg, Jost

2018-06-01

The enhancement of warming rates with elevation, so-called elevation-dependent warming (EDW), is one of the regional, still not completely understood, expressions of global warming. Sentinels of climate and environmental changes, mountains have experienced more rapid and intense warming trends in the recent decades, leading to serious impacts on mountain ecosystems and downstream. In this paper we use a state-of-the-art Global Climate Model (EC-Earth) to investigate the impact of model spatial resolution on the representation of this phenomenon and to highlight possible differences in EDW and its causes in different mountain regions of the Northern Hemisphere. To this end we use EC-Earth climate simulations at five different spatial resolutions, from ˜ 125 to ˜ 16 km, to explore the existence and the driving mechanisms of EDW in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, the Greater Alpine Region and the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas. Our results show that the more frequent EDW drivers in all regions and seasons are the changes in albedo and in downward thermal radiation and this is reflected in both daytime and nighttime warming. In the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas and in the Greater Alpine Region, an additional driver is the change in specific humidity. We also find that, while generally the model shows no clear resolution dependence in its ability to simulate the existence of EDW in the different regions, specific EDW characteristics such as its intensity and the relative role of different driving mechanisms may be different in simulations performed at different spatial resolutions. Moreover, we find that the role of internal climate variability can be significant in modulating the EDW signal, as suggested by the spread found in the multi-member ensemble of the EC-Earth experiments which we use.

Climate warming enhances snow avalanche risk in the Western Himalayas

PubMed Central

Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A.; Trappmann, D.; Madrigal-González, J.; Eckert, N.; Stoffel, M.

2018-01-01

Ongoing climate warming has been demonstrated to impact the cryosphere in the Indian Himalayas, with substantial consequences for the risk of disasters, human well-being, and terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we present evidence that the warming observed in recent decades has been accompanied by increased snow avalanche frequency in the Western Indian Himalayas. Using dendrogeomorphic techniques, we reconstruct the longest time series (150 y) of the occurrence and runout distances of snow avalanches that is currently available for the Himalayas. We apply a generalized linear autoregressive moving average model to demonstrate linkages between climate warming and the observed increase in the incidence of snow avalanches. Warming air temperatures in winter and early spring have indeed favored the wetting of snow and the formation of wet snow avalanches, which are now able to reach down to subalpine slopes, where they have high potential to cause damage. These findings contradict the intuitive notion that warming results in less snow, and thus lower avalanche activity, and have major implications for the Western Himalayan region, an area where human pressure is constantly increasing. Specifically, increasing traffic on a steadily expanding road network is calling for an immediate design of risk mitigation strategies and disaster risk policies to enhance climate change adaption in the wider study region. PMID:29535224

Changing circulation structure and precipitation characteristics in Asian monsoon regions: greenhouse warming vs. aerosol effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Ruby Leung, L.

Using model outputs from CMIP5 historical integrations, we have investigated the relative roles of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols in changing the characteristics of the large-scale circulation and rainfall in Asian summer monsoon (ASM) regions. Under GHG warming, a strong positive trend in low-level moist static energy (MSE) is found over ASM regions, associated with increasing large-scale land–sea thermal contrast from 1870s to present. During the same period, a mid-tropospheric convective barrier (MCB) due to widespread reduction in relative humidity in the mid- and lower troposphere is strengthening over the ASM regions, in conjunction with expanding areasmore » of anomalous subsidence associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (Lau and Kim in Proc Natl Acad Sci 12:3630–3635, 2015). The opposing effects of MSE and MCB lead to enhanced total ASM rainfall, but only a partial strengthening of the southern portion of the monsoon meridional circulation, coupled to anomalous multi-cellular overturning motions over ASM land. Including anthropogenic aerosol emissions strongly masks MSE but enhances MCB via increased stability in the lower troposphere, resulting in an overall weakened ASM circulation with suppressed rainfall. Analyses of rainfall characteristics indicate that under GHG, overall precipitation efficiency over the ASM region is reduced, manifesting in less moderate but more extreme heavy rain events. Under combined effects of GHG and aerosols, precipitation efficiency is unchanged, with more moderate, but less extreme rainfall.« less

Changing circulation structure and precipitation characteristics in Asian monsoon regions: greenhouse warming vs. aerosol effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Ruby Leung, L.

2017-12-01

Using model outputs from CMIP5 historical integrations, we have investigated the relative roles of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols in changing the characteristics of the large-scale circulation and rainfall in Asian summer monsoon (ASM) regions. Under GHG warming, a strong positive trend in low-level moist static energy (MSE) is found over ASM regions, associated with increasing large-scale land-sea thermal contrast from 1870s to present. During the same period, a mid-tropospheric convective barrier (MCB) due to widespread reduction in relative humidity in the mid- and lower troposphere is strengthening over the ASM regions, in conjunction with expanding areas of anomalous subsidence associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (Lau and Kim in Proc Natl Acad Sci 12:3630-3635, 2015). The opposing effects of MSE and MCB lead to enhanced total ASM rainfall, but only a partial strengthening of the southern portion of the monsoon meridional circulation, coupled to anomalous multi-cellular overturning motions over ASM land. Including anthropogenic aerosol emissions strongly masks MSE but enhances MCB via increased stability in the lower troposphere, resulting in an overall weakened ASM circulation with suppressed rainfall. Analyses of rainfall characteristics indicate that under GHG, overall precipitation efficiency over the ASM region is reduced, manifesting in less moderate but more extreme heavy rain events. Under combined effects of GHG and aerosols, precipitation efficiency is unchanged, with more moderate, but less extreme rainfall.

Temperature Data Shows Warming in 2001

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

TThe figure above depicts how much air temperatures near the Earth's surface changed relative to the global mean temperature from 1951 to 1980. NASA researchers used maps of urban areas derived from city lights data to account for the 'heat island' effect of cities. The red and orange colors show that temperatures are warmer in most regions of the world when compared to the 1951 to 1980 'normal' temperatures. Warming around the world has been widespread, but it is not present everywhere. The largest warming is in Northern Canada, Alaska and Siberia, as indicated by the deeper red colors. The lower 48 United States have become warmer recently, but only enough to make the temperatures comparable to what they were in the 1930s. The scale on the bottom of these temperature anomaly images represent degrees in Celsius. The negative numbers represent cooling and the positive numbers depict warming. Overall, the air temperature near the Earth's surface has warmed by 1oF (0.6oC) globally, on average, over the last century. For more information and additional images, read Satellites Shed Light on a Warmer World. Image courtesy Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS).

Global Warming - Are We on Thin Ice?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tucker, Compton J.

2007-01-01

The evidence for global warming is very conclusive for the past 400-500 years. Prior to the 16th century, proxy surface temperature data are regionally good but lack a global distribution. The speaker will review surface temperature reconstruction based upon ice cores, coral cores, tree rings, deep sea sediments, and bore holes and discuss the controversy surrounding global warming. This will be contrasted with the excellent data we have from the satellite era of earth observations the past 30+ years that enables the quantitative study of climate across earth science disciplines.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-05-12

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-01-01

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical–ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean−atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes. PMID:25902494

Structural Evolution of a Warm Frontal Precipitation Band During GCPEx

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colle, Brian A.; Naeger, Aaron; Molthan, Andrew; Nesbitt, Stephen

2015-01-01

A warm frontal precipitation band developed over a few hours 50-100 km to the north of a surface warm front. The 3-km WRF was able to realistically simulate band development, although the model is somewhat too weak. Band genesis was associated with weak frontogenesis (deformation) in the presence of weak potential and conditional instability feeding into the band region, while it was closer to moist neutral within the band. As the band matured, frontogenesis increased, while the stability gradually increased in the banding region. Cloud top generating cells were prevalent, but not in WRF (too stable). The band decayed as the stability increased upstream and the frontogenesis (deformation) with the warm front weakened. The WRF may have been too weak and short-lived with the band because too stable and forcing too weak (some micro issues as well).

Coastal warming and wind-driven upwelling: A global analysis.

PubMed

Varela, Rubén; Lima, Fernando P; Seabra, Rui; Meneghesso, Claudia; Gómez-Gesteira, Moncho

2018-10-15

Long-term sea surface temperature (SST) warming trends are far from being homogeneous, especially when coastal and ocean locations are compared. Using data from NOAA's AVHRR OISST, we have analyzed sea surface temperature trends over the period 1982-2015 at around 3500 worldwide coastal points and their oceanic counterparts with a spatial resolution of 0.25 arc-degrees. Significant warming was observed at most locations although with important differences between oceanic and coastal points. This is especially patent for upwelling regions, where 92% of the coastal locations showed lower warming trends than at neighboring ocean locations. This result strongly suggests that upwelling has the potential to buffer the effects of global warming nearshore, with wide oceanographic, climatic, and biogeographic implications. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robock, Alan; Mao, Jianping

1992-01-01

An examination of the Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows warming over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95-percent level. This pattern is found in the first winter after tropical eruptions, in the first or second winter after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second winter after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of warming, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.

Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robock, Alan; Mao, Jianping

1992-01-01

An examination of the Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows warming over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95 percent level. This pattern is found in the first winter after tropical eruptions, in the first or second winter after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second winter after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of warming, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.

Global Warming.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hileman, Bette

1989-01-01

States the foundations of the theory of global warming. Describes methodologies used to measure the changes in the atmosphere. Discusses steps currently being taken in the United States and the world to slow the warming trend. Recognizes many sources for the warming and the possible effects on the earth. (MVL)

Teleconnections between Low and High-Latitude MLT regions during the Southern Hemisphere (SH) Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Lee, J.; Eswaraiah, S.; Ratnam, M. V.

2017-12-01

In the present study, we study the teleconnections between the tropical and polar region during the Southern Hemisphere (SH) Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) as well as the effect of SH SSWs on the modification of global mean atmospheric circulation. By analyzing the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data and Earth Observing System (EOS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements both at the equatorial and polar region during the SH SSW events of 2002 and 2010, we find that; (i) the zero-wind line in the stratosphere appeared over the tropics ˜90 days prior to the 2002 SSW and progressed toward the south pole, thus satisfying the preconditioning for planetary wave (PW) propagation as suggested in the model study; (ii) an enhanced 16-day PW activity, along with the zero-wind line, is noted from the equator to the south pole, and (iii) during the 2010 SSW strong anti-correlation between the polar and equatorial temperatures occurred both in the stratosphere and the mesosphere. We interpret these characteristics as a possible teleconnection between the two regions through the intensification of 16-day PW. This is the first observational study over SH that reveals some novel features of the SSW and its connection to the equatorial region.

Impact of evolving greenhouse gas forcing on the warming signal in regional climate model experiments.

PubMed

Jerez, S; López-Romero, J M; Turco, M; Jiménez-Guerrero, P; Vautard, R; Montávez, J P

2018-04-03

Variations in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) may not be included as external forcing when running regional climate models (RCMs); at least, this is a non-regulated, non-documented practice. Here we investigate the so far unexplored impact of considering the rising evolution of the CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O atmospheric concentrations on near-surface air temperature (TAS) trends, for both the recent past and the near future, as simulated by a state-of-the-art RCM over Europe. The results show that the TAS trends are significantly affected by 1-2 K century -1 , which under 1.5 °C global warming translates into a non-negligible impact of up to 1 K in the regional projections of TAS, similarly affecting projections for maximum and minimum temperatures. In some cases, these differences involve a doubling signal, laying further claim to careful reconsideration of the RCM setups with regard to the inclusion of GHG concentrations as an evolving external forcing which, for the sake of research reproducibility and reliability, should be clearly documented in the literature.

Warming-Induced Decline of Picea crassifolia Growth in the Qilian Mountains in Recent Decades.

PubMed

Yu, Li; Huang, Lei; Shao, Xuemei; Xiao, Fengjing; Wilmking, Martin; Zhang, Yongxiang

2015-01-01

Warming-induced drought has widely affected forest dynamics in most places of the northern hemisphere. In this study, we assessed how climate warming has affected Picea crassifolia (Qinghai spruce) forests using tree growth-climate relationships and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) along the Qilian Mountains, northeastern Tibet Plateau (the main range of Picea crassifolia). Based on the analysis on trees radial growth data from the upper tree line and the regional NDVI data, we identified a pervasive growth decline in recent decades, most likely caused by warming-induced droughts. The drought stress on Picea crassifolia radial growth were expanding from northeast to southwest and the favorable moisture conditions for tree growth were retreating along the identical direction in the study area over the last half century. Compared to the historical drought stress on tree radial growth in the 1920s, recent warming-induced droughts display a longer-lasting stress with a broader spatial distribution on regional forest growth. If the recent warming continues without the effective moisture increasing, then a notable challenge is developed for Picea crassifolia in the Qilian Mountains. Elaborate forest management is necessary to counteract the future risk of climate change effects in this region.

Evidence for 20th century climate warming and wetland drying in the North American Prairie Pothole Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Werner, B.A.; Johnson, W. Carter; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

2013-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is a globally important resource that provides abundant and valuable ecosystem goods and services in the form of biodiversity, groundwater recharge, water purification, flood attenuation, and water and forage for agriculture. Numerous studies have found these wetlands, which number in the millions, to be highly sensitive to climate variability. Here, we compare wetland conditions between two 30-year periods (1946–1975; 1976–2005) using a hindcast simulation approach to determine if recent climate warming in the region has already resulted in changes in wetland condition. Simulations using the WETLANDSCAPE model show that 20th century climate change may have been sufficient to have a significant impact on wetland cover cycling. Modeled wetlands in the PPR's western Canadian prairies show the most dramatic effects: a recent trend toward shorter hydroperiods and less dynamic vegetation cycles, which already may have reduced the productivity of hundreds of wetland-dependent species.

Evidence for 20th century climate warming and wetland drying in the North American Prairie Pothole Region.

PubMed

Werner, Brett A; Johnson, W Carter; Guntenspergen, Glenn R

2013-09-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is a globally important resource that provides abundant and valuable ecosystem goods and services in the form of biodiversity, groundwater recharge, water purification, flood attenuation, and water and forage for agriculture. Numerous studies have found these wetlands, which number in the millions, to be highly sensitive to climate variability. Here, we compare wetland conditions between two 30-year periods (1946-1975; 1976-2005) using a hindcast simulation approach to determine if recent climate warming in the region has already resulted in changes in wetland condition. Simulations using the WETLANDSCAPE model show that 20th century climate change may have been sufficient to have a significant impact on wetland cover cycling. Modeled wetlands in the PPR's western Canadian prairies show the most dramatic effects: a recent trend toward shorter hydroperiods and less dynamic vegetation cycles, which already may have reduced the productivity of hundreds of wetland-dependent species.

Io's Heat Flow: A Model Including "Warm" Polar Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veeder, G. J.; Matson, D. L.; Johnson, T. V.; Davies, A. G.; Blaney, D. L.

2002-12-01

for the Veeder et al. model to match these new constrains - we added two model parameters to characterize the volcanically heated high-latitude units. These are the latitude above which the unit exists and its nighttime temperature. The resulting four-parameter model is the first that encompasses all of the available observations of Io's thermal emission and that quantitatively satisfies all eleven observational constraints. While no model is unique, this model is significant because it is the first to accommodate widespread polar regions that are relatively "warm". This work was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract to NASA.

Do Southern Ocean Cloud Feedbacks Matter for 21st Century Warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, W. R.; Maroon, E. A.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Kay, J. E.

2017-12-01

Cloud phase improvements in a state-of-the-art climate model produce a large 1.5 K increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, the surface warming in response to instantaneously doubled CO2) via extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks. Here we show that the same model improvements produce only a small surface warming increase in a realistic 21st century emissions scenario. The small 21st century warming increase is attributed to extratropical ocean heat uptake. Southern Ocean mean-state circulation takes up heat while a slowdown in North Atlantic circulation acts as a feedback to slow surface warming. Persistent heat uptake by extratropical oceans implies that extratropical cloud biases may not be as important to 21st century warming as biases in other regions. Observational constraints on cloud phase and shortwave radiation that produce a large ECS increase do not imply large changes in 21st century warming.

Amplified summer warming in Europe-West Asia and Northeast Asia after the mid-1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Xiaowei; Lu, Riyu; Li, Shuanglin

2017-09-01

Regional temperature changes are a crucial factor in affecting agriculture, ecosystems and societies, which depend greatly on local temperatures. We identify a nonuniform warming pattern in summer around the mid-1990s over the Eurasian continent, with a predominant amplified warming over Europe-West Asia and Northeast Asia but much weaker warming over Central Asia. It is found that the nonuniform warming concurs with both the phase shift of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the decadal change in the Silk Road Pattern (SRP), which is an upper-tropospheric teleconnection pattern over the Eurasian continent during summer. We suggest that the AMO may modulate the decadal change in SRP and then induce the zonal asymmetry in temperature changes. Our results have important implications for decadal prediction of regional warming pattern in Eurasia based on the predictable AMO.

Efficient Warm-ups: Creating a Warm-up That Works.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lauffenburger, Sandra Kay

1992-01-01

Proper warm-up is important for any activity, but designing an effective warm-up can be time consuming. An alternative approach is to take a cue from Laban Movement Analysis (LMA) and consider movement design from the perspective of space and planes of motion. Efficient warm-up exercises using LMA are described. (SM)

East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia.

PubMed

Zhang, Huan; Werner, Johannes P; García-Bustamante, Elena; González-Rouco, Fidel; Wagner, Sebastian; Zorita, Eduardo; Fraedrich, Klaus; Jungclaus, Johann H; Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier; Zhu, Xiuhua; Xoplaki, Elena; Chen, Fahu; Duan, Jianping; Ge, Quansheng; Hao, Zhixin; Ivanov, Martin; Schneider, Lea; Talento, Stefanie; Wang, Jianglin; Yang, Bao; Luterbacher, Jürg

2018-05-16

East Asia has experienced strong warming since the 1960s accompanied by an increased frequency of heat waves and shrinking glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau and the Tien Shan. Here, we place the recent warmth in a long-term perspective by presenting a new spatially resolved warm-season (May-September) temperature reconstruction for the period 1-2000 CE using 59 multiproxy records from a wide range of East Asian regions. Our Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) based reconstructions generally agree with earlier shorter regional temperature reconstructions but are more stable due to additional temperature sensitive proxies. We find a rather warm period during the first two centuries CE, followed by a multi-century long cooling period and again a warm interval covering the 900-1200 CE period (Medieval Climate Anomaly, MCA). The interval from 1450 to 1850 CE (Little Ice Age, LIA) was characterized by cooler conditions and the last 150 years are characterized by a continuous warming until recent times. Our results also suggest that the 1990s were likely the warmest decade in at least 1200 years. The comparison between an ensemble of climate model simulations and our summer reconstructions since 850 CE shows good agreement and an important role of internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales.

Relative roles of differential SST warming, uniform SST warming and land surface warming in determining the Walker circulation changes under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lei; Li, Tim

2017-02-01

Most of CMIP5 models projected a weakened Walker circulation in tropical Pacific, but what causes such change is still an open question. By conducting idealized numerical simulations separating the effects of the spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming, extra land surface warming and differential SST warming, we demonstrate that the weakening of the Walker circulation is attributed to the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon and South America land effects. The effect of the uniform SST warming is through so-called "richest-get-richer" mechanism. In response to a uniform surface warming, the WNP monsoon is enhanced by competing moisture with other large-scale convective branches. The strengthened WNP monsoon further induces surface westerlies in the equatorial western-central Pacific, weakening the Walker circulation. The increase of the greenhouse gases leads to a larger land surface warming than ocean surface. As a result, a greater thermal contrast occurs between American Continent and equatorial Pacific. The so-induced zonal pressure gradient anomaly forces low-level westerly anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and weakens the Walker circulation. The differential SST warming also plays a role in driving low-level westerly anomalies over tropical Pacific. But such an effect involves a positive air-sea feedback that amplifies the weakening of both east-west SST gradient and Pacific trade winds.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

PubMed

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-07

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

PubMed

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-20

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

PubMed Central

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-01-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming. PMID:28317914

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Concentrations of /sup 90/Sr and /sup 137/Cs in region of discharge of warm water from the Kola Atomic Power Station

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bayanov, N.I.

1982-01-01

The/sup 90/Sr and /sup 137/Cs concentrations in trout cultivated in warm water from the Kola Atomic Power Station (APS) in the period 1974-1979 were 30-70 pCi/kg. This is one-quarter to one-third of the radionuclide concentrations in wild fish living in this region and one-tenth of that in commerical fishes from other waters on the Kola Peninsula. The low radionuclide concentrations can be attributed to the absence of pollution in the coolant reservoir of the Kola APS during this period of operation, and also to the fact that the main mode of entry of radionuclides into the fish's body is throughmore » food. The investigations lead to the very important conclusion that fish-farming based on the warm effluents of atomic power stations is a feasible proposition.« less

SOFIA Observations of S106: Dynamics of the Warm Gas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, R.; Schneider, N.; Stutzki, J.; Gusten, R.; Graf, U. U.; Hartogh, P.; Guan, X.; Staguhn, J. G.; Benford, D. J.

2012-01-01

Context The H II region/PDR/molecular cloud complex S106 is excited by a single O-star. The full extent of the warm and dense gas close to the star has not been mapped in spectrally resolved high-J CO or [C II] lines, so the kinematics of the warm. partially ionized gas, are unknown. Whether the prominent dark lane bisecting the hourglass-shaped nebula is due solely to the shadow cast by a small disk around the exciting star or also to extinction in high column foreground gas was an open question until now. Aims. To disentangle the morphology and kinematics of warm neutral and ionized gas close to the star, study their relation to the bulk of the molecular gas. and to investigate the nature of the dark lane. Methods. We use the heterodyne receiver GREAT on board SOFIA to observe velocity resolved spectral lines of [C II] and CO 11 yields 10 in comparison with so far unpublished submm continuum data at 350 micron (8HARC-Il) and complementary molecular line data. Results. The high angular and spectral resolution observations show a very complex morphology and kinematics of the inner S106 region, with many different components at different excitation conditions contributing to the observed emission. The [C II] lines are found to be bright and very broad. tracing high velocity gas close to the interface of molecular cloud and H II region. CO 11 yields 10 emission is more confined.. both spatially and in velocity, to the immediate surroundings of S 106 IR showing the presence of warm, high density (clumpy) gas. Our high angular resolution submm continuum observations rule out the scenario where the dark lane separating the two lobes is due solely to the shadow cast by a small disk close to the star. The lane is clearly seen also as warm, high column density gas at the boundary of the molecular cloud and H II region.

Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch.

PubMed

Cheung, William W L; Watson, Reg; Pauly, Daniel

2013-05-16

Marine fishes and invertebrates respond to ocean warming through distribution shifts, generally to higher latitudes and deeper waters. Consequently, fisheries should be affected by 'tropicalization' of catch (increasing dominance of warm-water species). However, a signature of such climate-change effects on global fisheries catch has so far not been detected. Here we report such an index, the mean temperature of the catch (MTC), that is calculated from the average inferred temperature preference of exploited species weighted by their annual catch. Our results show that, after accounting for the effects of fishing and large-scale oceanographic variability, global MTC increased at a rate of 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade between 1970 and 2006, and non-tropical MTC increased at a rate of 0.23 degrees Celsius per decade. In tropical areas, MTC increased initially because of the reduction in the proportion of subtropical species catches, but subsequently stabilized as scope for further tropicalization of communities became limited. Changes in MTC in 52 large marine ecosystems, covering the majority of the world's coastal and shelf areas, are significantly and positively related to regional changes in sea surface temperature. This study shows that ocean warming has already affected global fisheries in the past four decades, highlighting the immediate need to develop adaptation plans to minimize the effect of such warming on the economy and food security of coastal communities, particularly in tropical regions.

From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots.

PubMed

Popova, Ekaterina; Yool, Andrew; Byfield, Valborg; Cochrane, Kevern; Coward, Andrew C; Salim, Shyam S; Gasalla, Maria A; Henson, Stephanie A; Hobday, Alistair J; Pecl, Gretta T; Sauer, Warwick H; Roberts, Michael J

2016-06-01

Ocean warming 'hotspots' are regions characterized by above-average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test-beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal-marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high-resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO2 -driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that the temperature-defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future

Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus

DOE PAGES

Liu, Wei; Xie, Shang -Ping; Lu, Jian

2016-03-30

Ocean heat uptake is observed to penetrate deep during the recent hiatus1,2,3 of global warming in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean. This has been suggested to indicate that the two regions are the driver of the surface warming hiatus4. We show that the deep heat penetration in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean is not unique to the hiatus but common to the past four decades including the 1970s-90s epoch of accelerated surface warming. Our analyses of a large ensemble simulation5 confirm the deep heat penetration in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean in ensemble members with or without surface warming hiatusmore » in the early 21th century. During the past four decades, the global ocean heat content (OHC) of upper 1500m is dominated by a warming trend, and the depth of anthropogenic heat penetration merely reflects the depth of the mean meridional overturning circulation in the basin. Furthermore, the heat penetration depth is not a valid basis to infer the hiatus mechanism.« less

Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Wei; Xie, Shang -Ping; Lu, Jian

Ocean heat uptake is observed to penetrate deep during the recent hiatus1,2,3 of global warming in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean. This has been suggested to indicate that the two regions are the driver of the surface warming hiatus4. We show that the deep heat penetration in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean is not unique to the hiatus but common to the past four decades including the 1970s-90s epoch of accelerated surface warming. Our analyses of a large ensemble simulation5 confirm the deep heat penetration in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean in ensemble members with or without surface warming hiatusmore » in the early 21th century. During the past four decades, the global ocean heat content (OHC) of upper 1500m is dominated by a warming trend, and the depth of anthropogenic heat penetration merely reflects the depth of the mean meridional overturning circulation in the basin. Furthermore, the heat penetration depth is not a valid basis to infer the hiatus mechanism.« less

The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.

2011-01-01

Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

A note on antenna models in a warm isotropic plasma

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, N.

1980-01-01

The electron-transparent and electron-reflecting models of antennas in a warm isotropic plasma are reexamined. It is shown that a purely electrical treatment of both the models without an explicit use of the boundary condition on electron velocity yields the same results as those previously obtained through an electromechanical treatment. The essential difference between the two models is that for the electron-reflecting model, fields are nonzero only in the exterior region, while for the electron-transparent model, they are nonzero both in the exterior and interior regions of the antenna. This distinction helps in clarifying some misconceptions about these models of antennas in warm isotropic plasma.

Unabated global surface temperature warming: evaluating the evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karl, T. R.; Arguez, A.

2015-12-01

New insights related to time-dependent bias corrections in global surface temperatures have led to higher rates of warming over the past few decades than previously reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014). Record high global temperatures in the past few years have also contributed to larger trends. The combination of these factors and new analyses of the rate of temperature change show unabated global warming since at least the mid-Twentieth Century. New time-dependent bias corrections account for: (1) differences in temperatures measured from ships and drifting buoys; (2) improved corrections to ship measured temperatures; and (3) the larger rates of warming in polar regions (particularly the Arctic). Since 1951, the period over which IPCC (2014) attributes over half of the observed global warming to human causes, it is shown that there has been a remarkably robust and sustained warming, punctuated with inter-annual and decadal variability. This finding is confirmed through simple trend analysis and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Trend analysis however, especially for decadal trends, is sensitive to selection bias of beginning and ending dates. EMD has no selection bias. Additionally, it can highlight both short- and long-term processes affecting the global temperature times series since it addresses both non-linear and non-stationary processes. For the new NOAA global temperature data set, our analyses do not support the notion of a hiatus or slowing of long-term global warming. However, sub-decadal periods of little (or no warming) and rapid warming can also be found, clearly showing the impact of inter-annual and decadal variability that previously has been attributed to both natural and human-induced non-greenhouse forcings.

Forests synchronize their growth in contrasting Eurasian regions in response to climate warming.

PubMed

Shestakova, Tatiana A; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Kirdyanov, Alexander V; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Génova, Mar; Knorre, Anastasia A; Linares, Juan Carlos; Resco de Dios, Víctor; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Voltas, Jordi

2016-01-19

Forests play a key role in the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. One of the main uncertainties in global change predictions lies in how the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest productivity will be affected by climate warming. Here we show an increasing influence of climate on the spatial variability of tree growth during the last 120 y, ultimately leading to unprecedented temporal coherence in ring-width records over wide geographical scales (spatial synchrony). Synchrony in growth patterns across cold-constrained (central Siberia) and drought-constrained (Spain) Eurasian conifer forests have peaked in the early 21st century at subcontinental scales (∼ 1,000 km). Such enhanced synchrony is similar to that observed in trees co-occurring within a stand. In boreal forests, the combined effects of recent warming and increasing intensity of climate extremes are enhancing synchrony through an earlier start of wood formation and a stronger impact of year-to-year fluctuations of growing-season temperatures on growth. In Mediterranean forests, the impact of warming on synchrony is related mainly to an advanced onset of growth and the strengthening of drought-induced growth limitations. Spatial patterns of enhanced synchrony represent early warning signals of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems at subcontinental scales.

Forests synchronize their growth in contrasting Eurasian regions in response to climate warming

PubMed Central

Shestakova, Tatiana A.; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Kirdyanov, Alexander V.; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Génova, Mar; Knorre, Anastasia A.; Linares, Juan Carlos; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Voltas, Jordi

2016-01-01

Forests play a key role in the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. One of the main uncertainties in global change predictions lies in how the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest productivity will be affected by climate warming. Here we show an increasing influence of climate on the spatial variability of tree growth during the last 120 y, ultimately leading to unprecedented temporal coherence in ring-width records over wide geographical scales (spatial synchrony). Synchrony in growth patterns across cold-constrained (central Siberia) and drought-constrained (Spain) Eurasian conifer forests have peaked in the early 21st century at subcontinental scales (∼1,000 km). Such enhanced synchrony is similar to that observed in trees co-occurring within a stand. In boreal forests, the combined effects of recent warming and increasing intensity of climate extremes are enhancing synchrony through an earlier start of wood formation and a stronger impact of year-to-year fluctuations of growing-season temperatures on growth. In Mediterranean forests, the impact of warming on synchrony is related mainly to an advanced onset of growth and the strengthening of drought-induced growth limitations. Spatial patterns of enhanced synchrony represent early warning signals of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems at subcontinental scales. PMID:26729860

Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time.

PubMed

Elmendorf, Sarah C; Henry, Gregory H R; Hollister, Robert D; Björk, Robert G; Bjorkman, Anne D; Callaghan, Terry V; Collier, Laura Siegwart; Cooper, Elisabeth J; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Day, Thomas A; Fosaa, Anna Maria; Gould, William A; Grétarsdóttir, Járngerður; Harte, John; Hermanutz, Luise; Hik, David S; Hofgaard, Annika; Jarrad, Frith; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Keuper, Frida; Klanderud, Kari; Klein, Julia A; Koh, Saewan; Kudo, Gaku; Lang, Simone I; Loewen, Val; May, Jeremy L; Mercado, Joel; Michelsen, Anders; Molau, Ulf; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Oberbauer, Steven F; Pieper, Sara; Post, Eric; Rixen, Christian; Robinson, Clare H; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Shaver, Gaius R; Stenström, Anna; Tolvanen, Anne; Totland, Orjan; Troxler, Tiffany; Wahren, Carl-Henrik; Webber, Patrick J; Welker, Jeffery M; Wookey, Philip A

2012-02-01

Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation - and associated ecosystem consequences - have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Design and performance of combined infrared canopy and belowground warming in the B4WarmED (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment.

PubMed

Rich, Roy L; Stefanski, Artur; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Hobbie, Sarah E; Kimball, Bruce A; Reich, Peter B

2015-06-01

Conducting manipulative climate change experiments in complex vegetation is challenging, given considerable temporal and spatial heterogeneity. One specific challenge involves warming of both plants and soils to depth. We describe the design and performance of an open-air warming experiment called Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger (B4WarmED) that addresses the potential for projected climate warming to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes at the boreal-temperate ecotone. The experiment includes two forested sites in northern Minnesota, USA, with plots in both open (recently clear-cut) and closed canopy habitats, where seedlings of 11 tree species were planted into native ground vegetation. Treatments include three target levels of plant canopy and soil warming (ambient, +1.7°C, +3.4°C). Warming was achieved by independent feedback control of voltage input to aboveground infrared heaters and belowground buried resistance heating cables in each of 72-7.0 m(2) plots. The treatments emulated patterns of observed diurnal, seasonal, and annual temperatures but with superimposed warming. For the 2009 to 2011 field seasons, we achieved temperature elevations near our targets with growing season overall mean differences (∆Tbelow ) of +1.84°C and +3.66°C at 10 cm soil depth and (∆T(above) ) of +1.82°C and +3.45°C for the plant canopies. We also achieved measured soil warming to at least 1 m depth. Aboveground treatment stability and control were better during nighttime than daytime and in closed vs. open canopy sites in part due to calmer conditions. Heating efficacy in open canopy areas was reduced with increasing canopy complexity and size. Results of this study suggest the warming approach is scalable: it should work well in small-statured vegetation such as grasslands, desert, agricultural crops, and tree saplings (<5 m tall). © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Mystery of Io's Warm Polar Regions: Implications for Heat Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matson, D. L.; Veeder, G. J.; Johnson, T. V.; Blaney, D. L.; Davies, A. G.

2002-01-01

Unexpectedly warm polar temperatures further support the idea that Io is covered virtually everywhere by cooling lava flows. This implies a new heat flow component. Io's heat flow remains constrained between a lower bound of (approximately) 2.5 W m(exp -2) and an upper bound of (approximately) 13 W m(exp -2). Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bärring, Lars; Strandberg, Gustav

2018-02-01

Since the ‘Paris agreement’ in 2015 there has been much focus on what a +1.5 °C or +2 °C warmer world would look like. Since the focus lies on policy relevant global warming targets, or specific warming levels (SWLs), rather than a specific point in time, projections are pooled together to form SWL ensembles based on the target temperature rather than emission scenario. This study uses an ensemble of CMIP5 global model projections to analyse how well SWL ensembles represent the stabilized climate of global warming targets. The results show that the SWL ensembles exhibit significant trends that reflect the transient nature of the RCP scenarios. These trends have clear effect on the timing and clustering of monthly cold and hot extremes, even though the effect on the temperature of the extreme months is less visible. In many regions there is a link between choice of RCP scenario used in the SWL ensemble and climate change signal in the highest monthly temperatures. In other regions there is no such clear-cut link. From this we conclude that comprehensive analyses of what prospects the different global warming targets bring about will require stabilization scenarios. Awaiting such targeted scenarios we suggest that prudent use of SWL scenarios, taking their characteristics and limitations into account, may serve as reasonable proxies in many situations.

Changes in South Pacific rainfall bands in a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widlansky, M. J.; Timmermann, A.; Stein, K.; McGregor, S.; Schneider, N.; England, M. H.; Lengaigne, M.; Cai, W.

2012-12-01

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest rainband in the Southern Hemisphere and provides most of the rainfall to Southwest Pacific island nations. In spite of various modeling efforts, it remains uncertain how the SPCZ will respond to greenhouse warming. A multi-model ensemble average of 21st century climate change projections from the current-generation of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) suggests a slightly wetter Southwest Pacific; however, inter-model uncertainty is greater than projected rainfall changes in the SPCZ region. Using a hierarchy of climate models we show that the uncertainty of SPCZ rainfall projections in the Southwest Pacific can be explained as a result of two competing mechanisms. Higher tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) lead to an overall increase of atmospheric moisture and rainfall while weaker SST gradients dynamically shift the SPCZ northeastward (see illustration) and promote summer drying in areas of the Southwest Pacific, similar to the response to strong El Niño events. Based on a multi-model ensemble of 55 greenhouse warming experiments and for moderate tropical warming of 2-3°C we estimate a 5% decrease of SPCZ rainfall, although uncertainty exceeds ±30% among CGCMs. For stronger tropical warming, a tendency for a wetter SPCZ region is identified.; Illustration of the "warmest gets wetter" response to projected 21st century greenhouse warming. Green shading depicts observed (1982-2009) rainfall during DJF (contour interval: 2 mm/day; starting at 1 mm/day). Blue (red) contours depict warming less (more) than the tropical mean (42.5°N/S) 21st century multi-model trend (contour interval: 0.2°C; starting at ±0.1°C).

Direct Contribution of the Stratosphere to Recent West Antarctic Warming in Austral Spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolas, J. P.; Bromwich, D. H.

2015-12-01

The causes of the rapid warming of West Antarctica in recent decades are not yet fully understood. Thus far, investigations of the phenomenon have emphasized the role of tropospheric teleconnections originating from the Tropics in austral winter, but have had less success in explaining the strong warming in austral spring (SON). Here, we further explore the mechanisms behind the SON warming by focusing on September, the month during which atmospheric temperature and circulation trends in and around West Antarctica largely account for the 3-month average SON trends. We show that the tropospheric trends toward lower pressures/heights (more cyclonic) over the South Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean previously reported extend vertically well into the stratosphere. In the lower troposphere, these circulation changes, by steering more warm air toward West Antarctica, have likely contributed to the warming of the region. In the stratosphere, we provide evidence that the cyclonic trends are associated with a very prominent stratospheric warming in the Australian sector, believed to be the result of increased tropically-forced planetary wave activity and wave breaking. Through thermal wind balance, this regional stratospheric warming has led to a poleward displacement of the polar-night jet south of Australia, leading to enhanced cyclonic motion and potential vorticity (PV) downwind over the Amundsen Sea region. Finally, we establish, through the PV inversion framework, a causal link between stratospheric and tropospheric changes, whereby large PV anomalies in the stratosphere induce consistent geopotential height anomalies down in the troposphere. Our results highlight not only the important and largely overlooked role played by the stratosphere in recent West Antarctic climate change, but also a new pathway for tropical climate variability to influence Antarctic climate.

Effects of Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age on the hydrology of Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markonis, Y.; Kossieris, P.; Lykou, A.; Koutsoyiannis, D.

2012-04-01

Medieval Warm Period (950 - 1250) and Little Ice Age (1450 - 1850) are the most recent periods that reflect the magnitude of natural climate variability. As their names suggest, the first one was characterized by higher temperatures and a generally moister climate, while the opposite happened during the second period. Although their existence is well documented for Northern Europe and North America, recent findings suggest strong evidence in lower latitudes as well. Here we analyze qualitatively the influence of these climatic fluctuations on the hydrological cycle all over the Mediterranean basin, highlighting the spatial characteristics of precipitation and runoff. We use both qualitative estimates from literature review in the field of paleoclimatology and statistical analysis of proxy data series. We investigate possible regional patterns and possible tele-connections with large scale atmospheric circulation phenomena such as North Atlantic Oscillation, Siberian High, African Sahel Rainfall and Indian Monsoon.

Global Warming In A Regional Model of The Atlantic Ocean - Echam4/opyc3 In Flame 4/3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schweckendiek, U.; Willebrand, J.

The reaction of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) in most climate models on global warming scenarios is a weakening of the THC. An exception is the ECHAM4/OPYC3 simulation whose stable behaviour is traced back to a strongly enhanced evaporation and as a consequence to a development of a salt anomaly in the tropics and subtropics of the Atlantic Ocean (Latif et al.,2000). This salt signal is advected into convection regions and compensates the reduction of surface density due to surface heating and freshening. To examine this scenario for a more realistic ocean model, data from this model is used to drive a reginal model of the Atlantic Ocean. In order to test the crucial mechanisms for the maintainance of the meridional overturning, we have performed sensitivity studies by focussing on different combinations of the anomalous freshwater and heat fluxes. The results demonstrate that for the stabilising effect to become effective the salt sig- nal has to enter the GIN-Seas and subsequently the overflow waters, underlining the importance of the overflows for the THC. The Labrador Sea Convection is however uneffected by this stabilising salt signal and its convection ultimatly breaks down un- der surface warming and freshening.

Climate change lessons from a warm world

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.

2010-01-01

In the early 1970’s to early 1980’s Soviet climatologists were making comparisons to past intervals of warmth in the geologic record and suggesting that these intervals could be possible analogs for 21st century “greenhouse” conditions. Some saw regional warming as a benefit to the Soviet Union and made comments along the lines of “Set fire to the coal mines!” These sentiments were alarming to some, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) leadership thought they could provide a more quantitative analysis of the data the Soviets were using for the most recent of these warm intervals, the Early Pliocene.

Multidecadal warming of Antarctic waters.

PubMed

Schmidtko, Sunke; Heywood, Karen J; Thompson, Andrew F; Aoki, Shigeru

2014-12-05

Decadal trends in the properties of seawater adjacent to Antarctica are poorly known, and the mechanisms responsible for such changes are uncertain. Antarctic ice sheet mass loss is largely driven by ice shelf basal melt, which is influenced by ocean-ice interactions and has been correlated with Antarctic Continental Shelf Bottom Water (ASBW) temperature. We document the spatial distribution of long-term large-scale trends in temperature, salinity, and core depth over the Antarctic continental shelf and slope. Warming at the seabed in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas is linked to increased heat content and to a shoaling of the mid-depth temperature maximum over the continental slope, allowing warmer, saltier water greater access to the shelf in recent years. Regions of ASBW warming are those exhibiting increased ice shelf melt. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Jian; Liu, Qinyu; Wang, Chuanyang

2018-03-01

Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sigmond, M.; Scinocca, J. F.; Kharin, V. V.; Shepherd, T. G.

2013-02-01

Advances in seasonal forecasting have brought widespread socio-economic benefits. However, seasonal forecast skill in the extratropics is relatively modest, prompting the seasonal forecasting community to search for additional sources of predictability. For over a decade it has been suggested that knowledge of the state of the stratosphere can act as a source of enhanced seasonal predictability; long-lived circulation anomalies in the lower stratosphere that follow stratospheric sudden warmings are associated with circulation anomalies in the troposphere that can last up to two months. Here, we show by performing retrospective ensemble model forecasts that such enhanced predictability can be realized in a dynamical seasonal forecast system with a good representation of the stratosphere. When initialized at the onset date of stratospheric sudden warmings, the model forecasts faithfully reproduce the observed mean tropospheric conditions in the months following the stratospheric sudden warmings. Compared with an equivalent set of forecasts that are not initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings, we document enhanced forecast skill for atmospheric circulation patterns, surface temperatures over northern Russia and eastern Canada and North Atlantic precipitation. We suggest that seasonal forecast systems initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings are likely to yield significantly greater forecast skill in some regions.

Emerging Vibrio risk at high latitudes in response to ocean warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker-Austin, Craig; Trinanes, Joaquin A.; Taylor, Nick G. H.; Hartnell, Rachel; Siitonen, Anja; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime

2013-01-01

There is increasing concern regarding the role of climate change in driving bacterial waterborne infectious diseases. Here we illustrate associations between environmental changes observed in the Baltic area and the recent emergence of Vibrio infections and also forecast future scenarios of the risk of infections in correspondence with predicted warming trends. Using multidecadal long-term sea surface temperature data sets we found that the Baltic Sea is warming at an unprecedented rate. Sea surface temperature trends (1982-2010) indicate a warming pattern of 0.063-0.078°Cyr-1 (6.3-7.8°C per century; refs , ), with recent peak temperatures unequalled in the history of instrumented measurements for this region. These warming patterns have coincided with the unexpected emergence of Vibrio infections in northern Europe, many clustered around the Baltic Sea area. The number and distribution of cases correspond closely with the temporal and spatial peaks in sea surface temperatures. This is among the first empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change is driving the emergence of Vibrio disease in temperate regions through its impact on resident bacterial communities, implying that this process is reshaping the distribution of infectious diseases across global scales.

The Differential Warming Response of Britain's Rivers (1982-2011).

PubMed

Jonkers, Art R T; Sharkey, Kieran J

2016-01-01

River water temperature is a hydrological feature primarily controlled by topographical, meteorological, climatological, and anthropogenic factors. For Britain, the study of freshwater temperatures has focussed mainly on observations made in England and Wales; similar comprehensive data sets for Scotland are currently unavailable. Here we present a model for the whole of mainland Britain over three recent decades (1982-2011) that incorporates geographical extrapolation to Scotland. The model estimates daily mean freshwater temperature for every river segment and for any day in the studied period, based upon physico-geographical features, daily mean air and sea temperatures, and available freshwater temperature measurements. We also extrapolate the model temporally to predict future warming of Britain's rivers given current observed trends. Our results highlight the spatial and temporal diversity of British freshwater temperatures and warming rates. Over the studied period, Britain's rivers had a mean temperature of 9.84°C and experienced a mean warming of +0.22°C per decade, with lower rates for segments near lakes and in coastal regions. Model results indicate April as the fastest-warming month (+0.63°C per decade on average), and show that most rivers spend on average ever more days of the year at temperatures exceeding 10°C, a critical threshold for several fish pathogens. Our results also identify exceptional warming in parts of the Scottish Highlands (in April and September) and pervasive cooling episodes, in December throughout Britain and in July in the southwest of England (in Wales, Cornwall, Devon, and Dorset). This regional heterogeneity in rates of change has ramifications for current and future water quality, aquatic ecosystems, as well as for the spread of waterborne diseases.

Passive warming effect on soil microbial community and humic substance degradation in maritime Antarctic region.

PubMed

Kim, Dockyu; Park, Ha Ju; Kim, Jung Ho; Youn, Ui Joung; Yang, Yung Hun; Casanova-Katny, Angélica; Vargas, Cristina Muñoz; Venegas, Erick Zagal; Park, Hyun; Hong, Soon Gyu

2018-06-01

Although the maritime Antarctic has undergone rapid warming, the effects on indigenous soil-inhabiting microorganisms are not well known. Passive warming experiments using open-top chamber (OTC) have been performed on the Fildes Peninsula in the maritime Antarctic since 2008. When the soil temperature was measured at a depth of 2-5 cm during the 2013-2015 summer seasons, the mean temperature inside OTC (OTC-In) increased by approximately 0.8 °C compared with outside OTC (OTC-Out), while soil chemical and physical characteristics did not change. Soils (2015 summer) from OTC-In and OTC-Out were subjected to analysis for change in microbial community and degradation rate of humic substances (HS, the largest pool of recalcitrant organic carbon in soil). Archaeal and bacterial communities in OTC-In were minimally affected by warming compared with those in OTC-Out, with archaeal methanogenic Thermoplasmata slightly increased in abundance. The abundance of heterotrophic fungi Ascomycota was significantly altered in OTC-In. Total bacterial and fungal biomass in OTC-In increased by 20% compared to OTC-Out, indicating that this may be due to increased microbial degradation activity for soil organic matter (SOM) including HS, which would result in the release of more low-molecular-weight growth substrates from SOM. Despite the effects of warming on the microbial community over the 8-years-experiments warming did not induce any detectable change in content or structure of polymeric HS. These results suggest that increased temperature may have significant and direct effects on soil microbial communities inhabiting maritime Antarctic and that soil microbes would subsequently provide more available carbon sources for other indigenous microbes. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Field warming experiments shed light on the wheat yield response to temperature in China

PubMed Central

Zhao, Chuang; Piao, Shilong; Huang, Yao; Wang, Xuhui; Ciais, Philippe; Huang, Mengtian; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Peng, Shushi

2016-01-01

Wheat growth is sensitive to temperature, but the effect of future warming on yield is uncertain. Here, focusing on China, we compiled 46 observations of the sensitivity of wheat yield to temperature change (SY,T, yield change per °C) from field warming experiments and 102 SY,T estimates from local process-based and statistical models. The average SY,T from field warming experiments, local process-based models and statistical models is −0.7±7.8(±s.d.)% per °C, −5.7±6.5% per °C and 0.4±4.4% per °C, respectively. Moreover, SY,T is different across regions and warming experiments indicate positive SY,T values in regions where growing-season mean temperature is low, and water supply is not limiting, and negative values elsewhere. Gridded crop model simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project appear to capture the spatial pattern of SY,T deduced from warming observations. These results from local manipulative experiments could be used to improve crop models in the future. PMID:27853151

On the Regulation of the Pacific Warm Pool Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Ming-Dah; Chou, Sue-Hsien; Chan, Pui-King; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

In the tropical western Pacific, regions of the highest sea surface temperature (SST) and the largest cloud cover are found to have the largest surface heating, primarily due to the weak evaporative cooling associated with weak winds. This situation is in variance with the suggestions that the temperature in the Pacific warm pool is regulated either by the reduced solar heating due to an enhanced cloudiness or by the enhanced evaporative cooling due to an elevated SST. It is clear that an enhanced surface heating in an enhanced convection region is not sustainable and must be interrupted by variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation. As the deep convective regions shift away from regions of high SST due primarily to seasonal variation and secondarily to interannual variation of the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation, both trade wind and evaporative cooling in the high SST region increase, leading to a reduction in SST. We conclude that the evaporative cooling associated with the seasonal and interannual variations of trade winds in the primary factor that prevent the warm pool SST from increasing to a value much higher than what is observed.

Simulations of Dynamics and Transport during the September 2002 Antarctic Major Warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manney, Gloria L.; Sabutis, Joseph L.; Allen, Douglas R.; Lahoz, Willian A.; Scaife, Adam A.; Randall, Cora E.; Pawson, Steven; Naujokat, Barbara; Swinbank, Richard

2005-01-01

A mechanistic model simulation initialized on 14 September 2002, forced by 100-hPa geopotential heights from Met Office analyses, reproduced the dynamical features of the 2002 Antarctic major warming. The vortex split on approx.25 September; recovery after the warming, westward and equatorward tilting vortices, and strong baroclinic zones in temperature associated with a dipole pattern of upward and downward vertical velocities were all captured in the simulation. Model results and analyses show a pattern of strong upward wave propagation throughout the warming, with zonal wind deceleration throughout the stratosphere at high latitudes before the vortex split, continuing in the middle and upper stratosphere and spreading to lower latitudes after the split. Three-dimensional Eliassen-Palm fluxes show the largest upward and poleward wave propagation in the 0(deg)-90(deg)E sector prior to the vortex split (coincident with the location of strongest cyclogenesis at the model's lower boundary), with an additional region of strong upward propagation developing near 180(deg)-270(deg)E. These characteristics are similar to those of Arctic wave-2 major warmings, except that during this warming, the vortex did not split below approx.600 K. The effects of poleward transport and mixing dominate modeled trace gas evolution through most of the mid- to high-latitude stratosphere, with a core region in the lower-stratospheric vortex where enhanced descent dominates and the vortex remains isolated. Strongly tilted vortices led to low-latitude air overlying vortex air, resulting in highly unusual trace gas profiles. Simulations driven with several meteorological datasets reproduced the major warming, but in others, stronger latitudinal gradients at high latitudes at the model boundary resulted in simulations without a complete vortex split in the midstratosphere. Numerous tests indicate very high sensitivity to the boundary fields, especially the wave-2 amplitude. Major warmings

Early 20th Century Arctic Warming Intensified by Pacific and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokinaga, H.; Xie, S. P.; Mukougawa, H.

2017-12-01

We investigate the influence of Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability on the Arctic temperature, with a particular focus on the early 20th century Arctic warming. Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing than at present. We find that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability is the major driver for the early 20th century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early Arctic warming is associated with the cold-to-warm phase shifts of Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal variability modes, a SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal and Atlantic multidecadal oscillations. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air to the North American Arctic. Coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, cold-to-warm phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region.

Changes in Extreme Maximum Temperature Events and Population Exposure in China under Global Warming Scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0°C: Analysis Using the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, Mingjin; Li, Xiucang; Sun, Hemin; Zhai, Jianqing; Jiang, Tong; Wang, Yanjun

2018-02-01

We used daily maximum temperature data (1986-2100) from the COSMO-CLM (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling in CLimate Mode) regional climate model and the population statistics for China in 2010 to determine the frequency, intensity, coverage, and population exposure of extreme maximum temperature events (EMTEs) with the intensity-area-duration method. Between 1986 and 2005 (reference period), the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs are 1330-1680 times yr-1, 31.4-33.3°C, and 1.76-3.88 million km2, respectively. The center of the most severe EMTEs is located in central China and 179.5-392.8 million people are exposed to EMTEs annually. Relative to 1986-2005, the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs increase by 1.13-6.84, 0.32-1.50, and 15.98%-30.68%, respectively, under 1.5°C warming; under 2.0°C warming, the increases are 1.73-12.48, 0.64-2.76, and 31.96%-50.00%, respectively. It is possible that both the intensity and coverage of future EMTEs could exceed the most severe EMTEs currently observed. Two new centers of EMTEs are projected to develop under 1.5°C warming, one in North China and the other in Southwest China. Under 2.0°C warming, a fourth EMTE center is projected to develop in Northwest China. Under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming, population exposure is projected to increase by 23.2%-39.2% and 26.6%-48%, respectively. From a regional perspective, population exposure is expected to increase most rapidly in Southwest China. A greater proportion of the population in North, Northeast, and Northwest China will be exposed to EMTEs under 2.0°C warming. The results show that a warming world will lead to increases in the intensity, frequency, and coverage of EMTEs. Warming of 2.0°C will lead to both more severe EMTEs and the exposure of more people to EMTEs. Given the probability of the increased occurrence of more severe EMTEs than in the past, it is vitally important to China that the global temperature increase is limited within 1.5°C.

Physical Mechanisms of Rapid Lake Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenters, J. D.

2016-12-01

Recent studies have shown significant warming of inland water bodies around the world. Many lakes are warming more rapidly than the ambient surface air temperature, and this is counter to what is often expected based on the lake surface energy balance. A host of reasons have been proposed to explain these discrepancies, including changes in the onset of summer stratification, significant loss of ice cover, and concomitant changes in winter air temperature and/or summer cloud cover. A review of the literature suggests that no single physical mechanism is primarily responsible for the majority of these changes, but rather that the large heterogeneity in regional climate trends and lake geomorphometry results in a host of potential physical drivers. In this study, we discuss the variety of mechanisms that have been proposed to explain rapid lake warming and offer an assessment of the physical plausibility for each potential contributor. Lake Superior is presented as a case study to illustrate the "perfect storm" of factors that can cause a deep, dimictic lake to warm at rate that exceeds the rate of global air temperature warming by nearly an order of magnitude. In particular, we use a simple mixed-layer model to show that spatially variable trends in Lake Superior surface water temperature are determined, to first order, by variations in bathymetry and winter air temperature. Summer atmospheric conditions are often of less significance, and winter ice cover may simply be a correlate. The results highlight the importance of considering the full range of factors that can lead to trends in lake surface temperature, and that conventional wisdom may often not be the best guide.

Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freund, Mandy; Henley, Benjamin J.; Karoly, David J.; Allen, Kathryn J.; Baker, Patrick J.

2017-11-01

Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April-September) and warm (October-March) season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM) regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30- and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium Drought (1997-2009) appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of diversity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental period (Federation Drought

Effect of rapid warming of boar semen on sperm morphology and physiology.

PubMed

Bamba, K; Cran, D G

1985-09-01

The effect of rapid dilution (1:8 with BTS or 1:6.5 with KRP) and temperature change on sperm morphology and physiology were studied using boar spermatozoa pre-diluted in BF5 diluent. Rapid dilution of cold semen (5 degrees C) with a warm solution (37 degrees C) caused marked acrosomal changes which were most prominent in the anterior region. The acrosomal damage appeared to be caused mainly by rapid warming. In contrast to rapid cooling, rapid warming had little effect upon motility, glutamic-oxaloacetic transaminase release and respiration.

How are warm and cool years in the California Current related to ENSO?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiedler, Paul C.; Mantua, Nathan J.

2017-07-01

The tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual variability that impacts climate throughout the Pacific. The California Current System (CCS) in the northeast Pacific warms and cools from year to year, with or without a corresponding tropical El Niño or La Niña event. We update the record of warm and cool events in the CCS for 1950-2016 and use composite sea level pressure (SLP) and surface wind anomalies to explore the atmospheric forcing mechanisms associated with tropical and CCS warm and cold events. CCS warm events are associated with negative SLP anomalies in the NE Pacific—a strong and southeastward displacement of the wintertime Aleutian Low, a weak North Pacific High, and a regional pattern of cyclonic wind anomalies that are poleward over the CCS. We use a first-order autoregressive model to show that regional North Pacific forcing is predominant in SST variations throughout most of the CCS, while remote tropical forcing is more important in the far southern portion of the CCS. In our analysis, cool events in the CCS tend to be more closely associated with tropical La Niña than are warm events in the CCS with tropical El Niño; the forcing of co-occurring cool events is analogous, but nearly opposite, to that of warm events.

Microclimate moderates plant responses to macroclimate warming.

PubMed

De Frenne, Pieter; Rodríguez-Sánchez, Francisco; Coomes, David Anthony; Baeten, Lander; Verstraeten, Gorik; Vellend, Mark; Bernhardt-Römermann, Markus; Brown, Carissa D; Brunet, Jörg; Cornelis, Johnny; Decocq, Guillaume M; Dierschke, Hartmut; Eriksson, Ove; Gilliam, Frank S; Hédl, Radim; Heinken, Thilo; Hermy, Martin; Hommel, Patrick; Jenkins, Michael A; Kelly, Daniel L; Kirby, Keith J; Mitchell, Fraser J G; Naaf, Tobias; Newman, Miles; Peterken, George; Petrík, Petr; Schultz, Jan; Sonnier, Grégory; Van Calster, Hans; Waller, Donald M; Walther, Gian-Reto; White, Peter S; Woods, Kerry D; Wulf, Monika; Graae, Bente Jessen; Verheyen, Kris

2013-11-12

Recent global warming is acting across marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems to favor species adapted to warmer conditions and/or reduce the abundance of cold-adapted organisms (i.e., "thermophilization" of communities). Lack of community responses to increased temperature, however, has also been reported for several taxa and regions, suggesting that "climatic lags" may be frequent. Here we show that microclimatic effects brought about by forest canopy closure can buffer biotic responses to macroclimate warming, thus explaining an apparent climatic lag. Using data from 1,409 vegetation plots in European and North American temperate forests, each surveyed at least twice over an interval of 12-67 y, we document significant thermophilization of ground-layer plant communities. These changes reflect concurrent declines in species adapted to cooler conditions and increases in species adapted to warmer conditions. However, thermophilization, particularly the increase of warm-adapted species, is attenuated in forests whose canopies have become denser, probably reflecting cooler growing-season ground temperatures via increased shading. As standing stocks of trees have increased in many temperate forests in recent decades, local microclimatic effects may commonly be moderating the impacts of macroclimate warming on forest understories. Conversely, increases in harvesting woody biomass--e.g., for bioenergy--may open forest canopies and accelerate thermophilization of temperate forest biodiversity.

Climate Warming Threatens Semi-arid Forests in Inner Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WU, X.; Liu, H.; Qi, Z.; Li, X.

2014-12-01

A line of evidences reveal an increasing tree growth decline and tree mortality mainly attributable to climate warming and the warming-mediated changes in drought and other processes (such as fire and insect dynamics) in many parts of world tropical, temperate and boreal forests. However, the growth responses to climate change of the widely distributed semi-arid forests are unclear. Here, we synthetically investigate the tree growth patterns during past decades and its interannual response to climate variations in Inner Asia combining the ground truth field survey and samplings, remote sensing observations and climate data. We identified a pervasive tree growth decline since mid-1990s in semi-arid forests in Inner Asia. The widely observed tree growth decline is dominantly attributable to warming-induced water stress during pre- and early growing season. Tree growth of semi-arid forests in Inner Asia is particularly susceptible to spring warming and has been suffering a prolonged growth limitation in recent decades due to spring warming-mediated water conditions. Additionally, we identified a much slower growth rate in younger trees and a lack of tree regeneration in these semi-arid forests. The widely observed forest growth reduction and lack of tree regeneration over semi-arid forests in Inner Asia could predictably exert great effects on forest structure, regionally/globally biophysical and biochemical processes and the feedbacks between biosphere and atmosphere. Notably, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be reasonably expected, especially in context of the increase frequency and severity of high temperature and heat waves and changes in forest disturbances, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi-arid forests. Given the potential risks of climate induced forest dieback, increased management attention to adaptation options for enhancing forest resistance and resilience to projected climate stress can be expected

Changes in Intense Precipitation Events in West Africa and the central U.S. under Global Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward

The purpose of the proposed project is to improve our understanding of the physical processes and large-scale connectivity of changes in intense precipitation events (high rainfall rates) under global warming in West Africa and the central U.S., including relationships with low-frequency modes of variability. This is in response to the requested subject area #2 “simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate … to better quantify the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme events under climate change and elucidate the role of low frequency climate variability in modulating extremes.” We will use a regional climate model and emphasize an understandingmore » of the physical processes that lead to an intensification of rainfall. The project objectives are as follows: 1. Understand the processes responsible for simulated changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency over West Africa and the Central U.S. associated with greenhouse gas-induced global warming 2. Understand the relationship between changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency, which generally occur on regional space scales, and the larger-scale global warming signal by considering modifications of low-frequency modes of variability. 3. Relate changes simulated on regional space scales to global-scale theories of how and why atmospheric moisture levels and rainfall should change as climate warms.« less

Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability

PubMed Central

Tokinaga, Hiroki; Xie, Shang-Ping; Mukougawa, Hitoshi

2017-01-01

With amplified warming and record sea ice loss, the Arctic is the canary of global warming. The historical Arctic warming is poorly understood, limiting our confidence in model projections. Specifically, Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing. Here, we show that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variability modes is the major driver for the rapid early 20th-century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations successfully reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early 20th-century Arctic warming is associated with positive SST anomalies over the tropical and North Atlantic and a Pacific SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Atmospheric circulation changes are important for the early 20th-century Arctic warming. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air into the North American Arctic. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. Coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, negative-to-positive phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal modes. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region. PMID:28559341

Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokinaga, Hiroki; Xie, Shang-Ping; Mukougawa, Hitoshi

2017-06-01

With amplified warming and record sea ice loss, the Arctic is the canary of global warming. The historical Arctic warming is poorly understood, limiting our confidence in model projections. Specifically, Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing. Here, we show that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variability modes is the major driver for the rapid early 20th-century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations successfully reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early 20th-century Arctic warming is associated with positive SST anomalies over the tropical and North Atlantic and a Pacific SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Atmospheric circulation changes are important for the early 20th-century Arctic warming. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air into the North American Arctic. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. Coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, negative-to-positive phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal modes. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region.

Potential causes of differences between ground and surface air temperature warming across different ecozones in Alberta, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majorowicz, Jacek A.; Skinner, Walter R.

1997-10-01

Analysis and modelling of temperature anomalies from 25 selected deep wells in Alberta show that the differences between GST (ground surface temperature) warming for the northern Boreal Forest ecozone and the combined Prairie Grassland ecozone and Aspen Parkland transition region to the south occur during the latter half of this century. This corresponds with recent changes in surface albedo resulting from permanent land development in the northern areas and also to increases in natural forest fires in the past 20 years. Differences between GST and SAT (surface air temperature) warming are much higher in the Boreal Forest ecozone than in the Prairie Grassland ecozone and Aspen Parkland transition region. Various hypotheses which could account for the existing differences between the GST and SAT warming in the different ecozones of Alberta, and western Canada in general, are tested. Analysis of existing data on soil temperature, hydrological piezometric surfaces, snowfall and moisture patterns, and land clearing and forest fires, indicate that large areas of Alberta, characterised by anomalous GST warming, have experienced widespread changes to the surface landscape in this century. It is postulated that this has resulted in a lower surface albedo with a subsequent increase in the absorption of solar energy. Heat flow modelling shows that, after climatic SAT warming, permanent clearing of the land is the most effective and likely cause of the observed changes in the GST warming. The greater GST warming in the Boreal Forest ecozone in the latter half of this century is related to landscape change due to land development and increasing forest fire activity. It appears to account for a portion of the observed SAT warming in this region through a positive feedback loop with the overlying air. The anthropogenic effect on regional climatic warming through 20th century land clearing and landscape alteration requires further study. In future, more accurate quantification of

The origins of the anomalous warming in the California coastal ocean and San Francisco Bay during 2014-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chao, Yi; Farrara, John D.; Bjorkstedt, Eric; Chai, Fei; Chavez, Francisco; Rudnick, Daniel L.; Enright, Wendy; Fisher, Jennifer L.; Peterson, William T.; Welch, Gregory F.; Davis, Curtiss O.; Dugdale, Richard C.; Wilkerson, Frances P.; Zhang, Hongchun; Zhang, Yinglong; Ateljevich, Eli

2017-09-01

During 2014 exceptionally warm water temperatures developed across a wide area off the California coast and within San Francisco Bay (SFB) and persisted into 2016. Observations and numerical model output are used to document this warming and determine its origins. The coastal warming was mostly confined to the upper 100 m of the ocean and was manifested strongly in the two leading modes of upper ocean (0-100 m) temperature variability in the extratropical eastern Pacific. Observations suggest that the coastal warming in 2014 propagated into nearshore regions from the west while later indicating a warming influence that propagated from south to north into the region associated with the 2015-2016 El Niño event. An analysis of the upper ocean (0-100 m) heat budget in a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) simulation confirmed this scenario. The results from a set of sensitivity runs with the model in which the lateral boundary conditions varied supported the conclusions drawn from the heat budget analysis. Concerning the warming in the SFB, an examination of the observations and the heat budget in an unstructured-grid numerical model simulation suggested that the warming during the second half of 2014 and early 2016 originated in the adjacent California coastal ocean and propagated through the Golden Gate into the Bay. The finding that the coastal and Bay warming are due to the relatively slow propagation of signals from remote sources raises the possibility that such warming events may be predictable many months or even several seasons in advance.

Global warming 2007. An update to global warming: the balance of evidence and its policy implications.

PubMed

Keller, Charles F

2007-03-09

century or so. However, this conclusion is being challenged by differing interpretations of satellite observations of Total Solar Insolation (TSI). Different satellites give different estimates of TSI during the 1996-7 solar activity minimum. A recent study using the larger TSI satellite interpretation indicates a stronger role for the sun, and until there is agreement on TSI at solar minimum, we caution completely disregarding the sun as a significant factor in recent warming. Computer models continue to improve and, while they still do not do a satisfactory job of predicting regional changes, their simulations of global aspects of climate change and of individual forcings are increasingly reliable. In addition to these four areas, the past five years have seen advances in our understanding of many other aspects of climate change--from albedo changes due to land use to the dynamics of glacier movement. However, these more are of second order importance and will only be treated very briefly. The big news since CFK03 is the first of these, the collapse of the climate critics' last real bastion, namely that satellites and radiosondes show no significant warming in the past quarter century. Figuratively speaking, this was the center pole that held up the critics' entire "tent." Their argument was that, if there had been little warming in the past 25 years or so, then what warming was observed would have been within the range of natural variations with solar forcing as the major player. Further, the models would have been shown to be unreliable since they were predicting warming that was not happening. But now both satellite and in-situ radiosonde observations have been shown to corroborate both the surface observations of warming and the model predictions. Thus, while uncertainties still remain, we are now seeing a coherent picture in which past climate variations, solar and other forcings, model predictions and other indicators such as glacier recession all point to a human

Climate variability and dengue fever in warm and humid Mexico.

PubMed

Colón-González, Felipe J; Lake, Iain R; Bentham, Graham

2011-05-01

Multiple linear regression models were fitted to look for associations between changes in the incidence rate of dengue fever and climate variability in the warm and humid region of Mexico. Data were collected for 12 Mexican provinces over a 23-year period (January 1985 to December 2007). Our results show that the incidence rate or risk of infection is higher during El Niño events and in the warm and wet season. We provide evidence to show that dengue fever incidence was positively associated with the strength of El Niño and the minimum temperature, especially during the cool and dry season. Our study complements the understanding of dengue fever dynamics in the region and may be useful for the development of early warning systems.

Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

PubMed

Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

2011-04-01

Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

Comparison of the response of Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) in the high-latitude regions of the North Atlantic during the warm periods of the 1920s-1960s and the 1990s-2000s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drinkwater, Ken

2009-10-01

Concern about future anthropogenic warming has lead to demands for information on what might happen to fish and fisheries under various climate-change scenarios. One suggestion has been to use past events as a proxy for what will happen in the future. In this paper a comparison between the responses of Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) to two major warm periods in the North Atlantic during the 20th century is carried out to determine how reliable the past might be as a predictor of the future. The first warm period began during the 1920s, remained relatively warm through the 1960s, and was limited primarily to the northern regions (>60°N). The second warm period, which again covered the northern regions but also extended farther south (30°N), began in the 1990s and has continued into the present century. During the earlier warm period, the most northern of the cod stocks (West Greenland, Icelandic, and Northeast Arctic cod in the Barents Sea) increased in abundance, individual growth was high, recruitment was strong, and their distribution spread northward. Available plankton data suggest that these cod responses were driven by bottom-up processes. Fishing pressure increased during this period of high cod abundance and the northern cod stocks began to decline, as early as the 1950s in the Barents Sea but during the 1960s elsewhere. Individual growth declined as temperatures cooled and the cod distributions retracted southward. During the warming in the 1990s, the spawning stock biomass of cod in the Barents Sea again increased, recruitment rose, and the stock spread northward, but the individual growth did not improve significantly. Cod off West Greenland also have shown signs of improving recruitment and increasing biomass, albeit they are still very low in comparison to the earlier warming period. The abundance of Icelandic cod, on the other hand, has remained low through the recent warm period and spawning stock biomass and total biomass are at levels near the

The effects of warmed intravenous fluids, combined warming (warmed intravenous fluids with humid-warm oxygen), and pethidine on the severity of shivering in general anesthesia patients in the recovery room

PubMed Central

Nasiri, Ahmad; Akbari, Ayob; Sharifzade, GholamReza; Derakhshan, Pooya

2015-01-01

Background: Shivering is a common complication of general and epidural anesthesia. Warming methods and many drugs are used for control of shivering in the recovery room. The present study is a randomized clinical trial aimed to investigate the effects of two interventions in comparison with pethidine which is the routine treatment on shivering in patients undergoing abdominal surgery with general anesthesia. Materials and Methods: Eighty-seven patients undergoing abdominal surgery by general anesthesia were randomly assigned to three groups (two intervention groups in comparison with pethidine as routine). Patients in warmed intravenous fluids group received pre-warmed Ringer serum (38°C), patients in combined warming group received pre-warmed Ringer serum (38°C) accompanied by humid-warm oxygen, and patients in pethidine group received intravenous pethidine routinely. The elapsed time of shivering and some hemodynamic parameters of the participants were assessed for 20 min postoperatively in the recovery room. Then the collected data were analyzed by software SPSS (v. 16) with the significance level being P < 0.05. Results: The mean of elapsed time in the warmed intravenous serum group, the combined warming group, and the pethidine group were 7 (1.5) min, 6 (1.5) min, and 2.8 (0.7) min, respectively, which was statistically significant (P < 0.05). The body temperatures in both combined warming and pethidine groups were increased significantly (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Combined warming can be effective in controlling postoperative shivering and body temperature increase. PMID:26793258

Warming-Induced Changes to the Molecular Composition of Soil Organic Matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Simpson, M. J.; Simpson, A. J.; Wilson, K. P.; Williams, D.

2007-12-01

Soil organic matter (SOM) contains two times more carbon than the atmosphere and the potential changes to SOM quantity and quality with global warming are a major concern. It is commonly believed that global warming will accelerate the decomposition of labile SOM compounds while refractory SOM constituents will remain stable. However, experimental evidence of molecular-level changes to SOM composition with global warming is currently lacking. Here we employ SOM biomarkers and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to study SOM composition and degradation in a soil warming experiment in southern Ontario, Canada. The soil warming experiment consisted of a control and a treatment plot in a mixed forest that had a temperature difference of about 5 degrees C for 14 months. Before soil warming the control and treatment plots had the same organic carbon (OC) content and SOM composition. Soil warming significantly increased soil OC content and the abundance of cutin-derived carbon originating from leaf tissues and decreased carbohydrates that are regarded as easily degradable. Lignin components, which are believed to be part of the stable and slowly-cycling SOM, were observed to be in an advanced stage of degradation. This observation is corroborated by increases in fungal biomass in the warmed soil because fungi are considered the primary decomposer of lignin in the soil environment. An NMR study of SOM in the warmed and control plots indicates that alkyl carbon, mainly originating from plant cuticles in the soil, increased in the warmed soil while O-alkyl carbon, primarily occurring in carbohydrates, decreased. Aromatic and phenolic carbon regions, which include the main structures found in lignin, decreased in the warmed soil. These data collectively suggest that there is a great potential for lignin degradation with soil warming, and that the refractory (aromatic) soil carbon storage may be reduced as a result of increased fungal growth in a warmer climate.

Detecting Emergence of Acidification and Warming as Stressors for Coral Reef Regions using Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menendez, A. T.

2015-12-01

Coral reef ecosystems rely on complex interactions between biological, biogeochemical, and physical processes to ensure their survival and resilience. However, both human interaction and anthropogenic climate change have negatively impacted the prosperity of these regions, resulting in a crucial need to understand and predict the future of important biogeochemical and physical stressors. Contemporary changes to these relationships and environmental conditions in coral reef ecosystems are a mixture of anthropogenic contributions and natural variability (e.g. ENSO) of the climate system. To better quantify the uncertainty in future projections, it is exceedingly necessary to differentiate between these two contributors. In this study we look at acidification and warming stressors in the Galapagos, Coral Triangle, and Hawaiian islands regions. We use a suite of hindcast simulations (a 30-member large initial condition ensemble) done with an Earth Systems Model (GFDL-ESM2M) in order quantify the degree to which natural variability alters the emergence time-scales of anthropogenically-induced changes to ecosystem drivers such as pH, ΩArag, and SST. A comparison of output from a suit of CMIP5 models will be used to evaluate model uncertainty for the same regions. Simulated trends and variability in these ecosystem drivers were then compared to observed trends over the three Pacific regions. Evidently the models and observed trends proved invaluable for testing the hypothesis addressing the presence of a temporal hierarchy between emergence, defined by a signal-to-noise ratio, of acidification stressors and temperature as a stressor. Furthermore, challenges in deconvolving anthropogenic and natural contributions to stressor trends will be discussed for each of the three sites.

A Massive Warm Baryonic Halo in the Coma Cluster

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonamente, Massimiliano; Joy, Marshall K.; Lieu, Richard

2003-01-01

Several deep PSPC observations of the Coma Cluster reveal a very large scale halo of soft X-ray emission, substantially in excess of the well-known radiation from the hot intracluster medium. The excess emission, previously reported in the central region of the cluster using lower sensitivity Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) and ROSAT data, is now evident out to a radius of 2.6 Mpc, demonstrating that the soft excess radiation from clusters is a phenomenon of cosmological significance. The X-ray spectrum at these large radii cannot be modeled nonthermally but is consistent with the original scenario of thermal emission from warm gas at approx. 10(exp 6) K. The mass of the warm gas is on par with that of the hot X-ray-emitting plasma and significantly more massive if the warm gas resides in low-density filamentary structures. Thus, the data lend vital support to current theories of cosmic evolution, which predict that at low redshift approx. 30%-40% of the baryons reside in warm filaments converging at clusters of galaxies.

Effects of warming and nitrogen fertilization on GHG flux in an alpine swamp meadow of a permafrost region.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaopeng; Wang, Genxu; Zhang, Tao; Mao, Tianxu; Wei, Da; Song, Chunlin; Hu, Zhaoyong; Huang, Kewei

2017-12-01

Uncertainties in the seasonal changes of greenhouse gases (GHG) fluxes in wetlands limit our accurate understanding of the responses of permafrost ecosystems to future warming and increased nitrogen (N) deposition. Therefore, in an alpine swamp meadow in the hinterland of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a simulated warming with N fertilization experiment was conducted to investigate the key GHG fluxes (ecosystem respiration [Re], CH 4 and N 2 O) in the early (EG), mid (MG) and late (LG) growing seasons. Results showed that warming (6.2 °C) increased the average seasonal Re by 30.9% and transformed the alpine swamp meadow from a N 2 O sink to a source, whereas CH 4 flux was not significantly affected. N fertilization (4 g N m -2 a -1 ) alone had no significant effect on the fluxes of GHGs. The interaction of warming and N fertilization increased CH 4 uptake by 69.6% and N 2 O emissions by 26.2% compared with warming, whereas the Re was not significantly affected. During the EG, although the soil temperature sensitivity of the Re was the highest, the effect of warming on the Re was the weakest. The primary driving factor for Re was soil surface temperature, whereas soil moisture controlled CH 4 flux, and the N 2 O flux was primarily affected by rain events. The results indicated: (i) increasing N deposition has both positive and negative feedbacks on GHG fluxes in response to climate warming; (ii) during soil thawing process at active layer, low temperature of deep frozen soils have a negative contribution to Re in alpine ecosystems; and (iii) although these alpine wetland ecosystems are buffers against increased temperature, their feedbacks on climate change cannot be ignored because of the large soil organic carbon pool and high temperature sensitivity of the Re. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regional climate change and national responsibilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

2016-03-01

Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

Causes of model dry and warm bias over central U.S. and impact on climate projections.

PubMed

Lin, Yanluan; Dong, Wenhao; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Yuanyu; Xue, Wei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong

2017-10-12

Climate models show a conspicuous summer warm and dry bias over the central United States. Using results from 19 climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we report a persistent dependence of warm bias on dry bias with the precipitation deficit leading the warm bias over this region. The precipitation deficit is associated with the widespread failure of models in capturing strong rainfall events in summer over the central U.S. A robust linear relationship between the projected warming and the present-day warm bias enables us to empirically correct future temperature projections. By the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario, the corrections substantially narrow the intermodel spread of the projections and reduce the projected temperature by 2.5 K, resulting mainly from the removal of the warm bias. Instead of a sharp decrease, after this correction the projected precipitation is nearly neutral for all scenarios.Climate models repeatedly show a warm and dry bias over the central United States, but the origin of this bias remains unclear. Here the authors associate this bias to precipitation deficits in models and after applying a correction, projected precipitation in this region shows no significant changes.

Warm Debris Disks from WISE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Padgett, Deborah L.

2011-01-01

"The Wide Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) has just completed a sensitive all-sky survey in photometric bands at 3.4, 4.6, 12, and 22 microns. We report on a preliminary investigation of main sequence Hipparcos and Tycho catalog stars with 22 micron emission in excess of photospheric levels. This warm excess emission traces material in the circumstellar region likely to host terrestrial planets and is preferentially found in young systems with ages < 1 Gyr. Nearly a hundred new warm debris disk candidates are detected among FGK stars and a similar number of A stars within 120 pc. We are in the process of obtaining spectra to determine spectral types and activity level of these stars and are using HST, Herschel and Keck to characterize the dust, multiplicity, and substellar companions of these systems. In this contribution, we will discuss source selection methods and individual examples from among the WISE debris disk candidates. "

Europa Plumes Located near Warm Spot on Europa

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-04-13

These images of the surface of the Jovian moon Europa, taken by NASA's Galileo spacecraft, focus on a "region of interest" on the icy moon. The image at left traces the location of the erupting plumes of material, observed by NASA's Hubble Space Telescope in 2014 and again in 2016. The plumes are located inside the area surrounded by the green oval. The green oval also corresponds to a warm region on Europa's surface, as identified by the temperature map at right. The map is based on observations by the Galileo spacecraft. The warmest area is colored bright red. Researchers speculate these data offer circumstantial evidence for unusual activity that may be related to a subsurface ocean on Europa. The dark circle just below center in both images is a crater and is not thought to be related to the warm spot or the plume activity. https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21444

Non-linear responses of glaciated prairie wetlands to climate warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, W. Carter; Werner, Brett; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

2016-01-01

The response of ecosystems to climate warming is likely to include threshold events when small changes in key environmental drivers produce large changes in an ecosystem. Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are especially sensitive to climate variability, yet the possibility that functional changes may occur more rapidly with warming than expected has not been examined or modeled. The productivity and biodiversity of these wetlands are strongly controlled by the speed and completeness of a vegetation cover cycle driven by the wet and dry extremes of climate. Two thresholds involving duration and depth of standing water must be exceeded every few decades or so to complete the cycle and to produce highly functional wetlands. Model experiments at 19 weather stations employing incremental warming scenarios determined that wetland function across most of the PPR would be diminished beyond a climate warming of about 1.5–2.0 °C, a critical temperature threshold range identified in other climate change studies.

Five Years of Experimental Warming Increases the Biodiversity and Productivity of Phytoplankton

PubMed Central

Yvon-Durocher, Gabriel; Allen, Andrew P.; Cellamare, Maria; Dossena, Matteo; Gaston, Kevin J.; Leitao, Maria; Montoya, José M.; Reuman, Daniel C.; Woodward, Guy; Trimmer, Mark

2015-01-01

Phytoplankton are key components of aquatic ecosystems, fixing CO2 from the atmosphere through photosynthesis and supporting secondary production, yet relatively little is known about how future global warming might alter their biodiversity and associated ecosystem functioning. Here, we explore how the structure, function, and biodiversity of a planktonic metacommunity was altered after five years of experimental warming. Our outdoor mesocosm experiment was open to natural dispersal from the regional species pool, allowing us to explore the effects of experimental warming in the context of metacommunity dynamics. Warming of 4°C led to a 67% increase in the species richness of the phytoplankton, more evenly-distributed abundance, and higher rates of gross primary productivity. Warming elevated productivity indirectly, by increasing the biodiversity and biomass of the local phytoplankton communities. Warming also systematically shifted the taxonomic and functional trait composition of the phytoplankton, favoring large, colonial, inedible phytoplankton taxa, suggesting stronger top-down control, mediated by zooplankton grazing played an important role. Overall, our findings suggest that temperature can modulate species coexistence, and through such mechanisms, global warming could, in some cases, increase the species richness and productivity of phytoplankton communities. PMID:26680314

Warm-adapted microbial communities enhance their carbon-use efficiency in warmed soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousk, Johannes; Frey, Serita

2017-04-01

Ecosystem models predict that climate warming will stimulate microbial decomposition of soil carbon (C), resulting in a positive feedback to increasing temperatures. The current generation of models assume that the temperature sensitivities of microbial processes do not respond to warming. However, recent studies have suggested that the ability of microbial communities to adapt to warming can lead both strengthened and weakened feedbacks. A further complication is that the balance between microbial C used for growth to that used for respiration - the microbial carbon-use efficiency (CUE) - also has been shown through both modelling and empirical study to respond to warming. In our study, we set out to assess how chronic warming (+5°C over ambient during 9 years) of a temperate hardwood forest floor (Harvard Forest LTER, USA) affected temperature sensitivities of microbial processes in soil. To do this, we first determined the temperature relationships for bacterial growth, fungal growth, and respiration in plots exposed to warmed or ambient conditions. Secondly, we parametrised the established temperature functions microbial growth and respiration with plot-specific measured soil temperature data at a hourly time-resolution over the course of 3 years to estimate the real-time variation of in situ microbial C production and respiration. To estimate the microbial CUE, we also divided the microbial C production with the sum of microbial C production and respiration as a proxy for substrate use. We found that warm-adapted bacterial and fungal communities both shifted their temperature relationships to grow at higher rates in warm conditions which coincided with reduced rates at cool conditions. As such, their optimal temperature (Topt), minimum temperature (Tmin) and temperature sensitivity (Q10) were all increased. The temperature relationship for temperature, in contrast, was only marginally shifted in the same direction, but at a much smaller effect size, with

Evaluating Arctic warming mechanisms in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franzke, Christian L. E.; Lee, Sukyoung; Feldstein, Steven B.

2017-05-01

Arctic warming is one of the most striking signals of global warming. The Arctic is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth and constitutes, thus, a good test bed to evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce the physics and dynamics involved in Arctic warming. Different physical and dynamical mechanisms have been proposed to explain Arctic amplification. These mechanisms include the surface albedo feedback and poleward sensible and latent heat transport processes. During the winter season when Arctic amplification is most pronounced, the first mechanism relies on an enhancement in upward surface heat flux, while the second mechanism does not. In these mechanisms, it has been proposed that downward infrared radiation (IR) plays a role to a varying degree. Here, we show that the current generation of CMIP5 climate models all reproduce Arctic warming and there are high pattern correlations—typically greater than 0.9—between the surface air temperature (SAT) trend and the downward IR trend. However, we find that there are two groups of CMIP5 models: one with small pattern correlations between the Arctic SAT trend and the surface vertical heat flux trend (Group 1), and the other with large correlations (Group 2) between the same two variables. The Group 1 models exhibit higher pattern correlations between Arctic SAT and 500 hPa geopotential height trends, than do the Group 2 models. These findings suggest that Arctic warming in Group 1 models is more closely related to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation, whereas in Group 2, the albedo feedback effect plays a more important role. Interestingly, while Group 1 models have a warm or weak bias in their Arctic SAT, Group 2 models show large cold biases. This stark difference in model bias leads us to hypothesize that for a given model, the dominant Arctic warming mechanism and trend may be dependent on the bias of the model mean state.

Potential impacts of global warming on the diversity and distribution of stream insects in South Korea.

PubMed

Li, Fengqing; Kwon, Yong-Su; Bae, Mi-Jung; Chung, Namil; Kwon, Tae-Sung; Park, Young-Seuk

2014-04-01

Globally, the East Asian monsoon region is one of the richest environments in terms of biodiversity. The region is undergoing rapid human development, yet its river ecosystems have not been well studied. Global warming represents a major challenge to the survival of species in this region and makes it necessary to assess and reduce the potential consequences of warming on species of conservation concern. We projected the effects of global warming on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EOPT]) diversity and predicted the changes of geographical ranges for 121 species throughout South Korea. Plecoptera was the most sensitive (decrease of 71.4% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) order, whereas Odonata benefited (increase of 66.7% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) from the effects of global warming. The impact of global warming on stream insects was predicted to be minimal prior to the 2060s; however, by the 2080s, species extirpation of up to 20% in the highland areas and 2% in the lowland areas were predicted. The projected responses of stream insects under global warming indicated that species occupying specific habitats could undergo major reductions in habitat. Nevertheless, habitat of 33% of EOPT (including two-thirds of Odonata and one-third of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) was predicted to increase due to global warming. The community compositions predicted by generalized additive models varied over this century, and a large difference in community structure in the highland areas was predicted between the 2000s and the 2080s. However, stream insect communities, especially Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, were predicted to become more homogenous under global warming. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Spatiotemporal Divergence of the Warming Hiatus over Land Based on Different Definitions of Mean Temperature

PubMed Central

Zhou, Chunlüe; Wang, Kaicun

2016-01-01

Existing studies of the recent warming hiatus over land are primarily based on the average of daily minimum and maximum temperatures (T2). This study compared regional warming rates of mean temperature based on T2 and T24 calculated from hourly observations available from 1998 to 2013. Both T2 and T24 show that the warming hiatus over land is apparent in the mid-latitudes of North America and Eurasia, especially in cold seasons, which is closely associated with the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) and cold air propagation by the Arctic-original northerly wind anomaly into mid-latitudes. However, the warming rates of T2 and T24 are significantly different at regional and seasonal scales because T2 only samples air temperature twice daily and cannot accurately reflect land-atmosphere and incoming radiation variations in the temperature diurnal cycle. The trend has a standard deviation of 0.43 °C/decade for T2 and 0.41 °C/decade for T24, and 0.38 °C/decade for their trend difference in 5° × 5° grids. The use of T2 amplifies the regional contrasts of the warming rate, i.e., the trend underestimation in the US and overestimation at high latitudes by T2. PMID:27531421

C4 grasses prosper as carbon dioxide eliminates desiccation in warmed semi-arid grasslands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global warming is predicted to induce desiccation in many world regions through increases in evaporative demand. Rising CO2 may counter that trend by improving plant water use efficiency (WUE). However, it is not clear how important this CO2-enhanced WUE might be in off-setting warming-induced desi...

Experimental warming effects on the bacterial community structure and diversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, W.; Han, S.; Adams, J.; Son, Y.

2014-12-01

The objective of this study is to investigate the responses of soil bacterial community to future temperature increase by conducting open-field warming experiment. We conducted an open-field experimental warming system using infra-red heater in 2011 and regulated the temperature of warmed plots by 3oC higher than that of control plots constantly. The seeds of Pinus densiflora, Abies holophylla, Abies koreana, Betula costata, Quercus variabilis, Fraxinus rhynchophylla, and Zelkova serrata were planted in each 1 m × 1 m plot (n=3) in April, 2012. We collected soil samples from the rhizosphere of 7 tree species. DNA was extracted and PCR-amplified for the bacterial 16S gene targeting V1-V3 region. The paired-end sequencing was performed at Beijing Genome Institute (BGI, Hong Kong, China) using 2× 100 bp Hiseq2000 (Illumina). This study aimed to answer the following prediction/hypothesis: 1) Experimental warming will change the structure of soil bacterial community, 2) There will be distinct 'indicator group' which response to warming treatment relatively more sensitive than other groups. 3) Warming treatment will enhance the microbial activity in terms of soil respiration. 4) The rhizoplane bacterial communities for each of 7 tree species will show different response pattern to warming treatment. Since the sequence data does not arrive before the submission deadline, therefore, we would like to present the results and discussions on December 2014, AGU Fall Meeting.

Accelerated soil carbon loss by biological changes under warming in Alaskan tundra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, J.; Schuur, E.; Luo, Y.; Cole, J. R.; Jiang, L.; Konstantinidis, K.; Mauritz, M.; Natali, S.; Pegoraro, E.; Penton, C. R.; Plaza, C.; Salmon, V. G.; Shi, Z.; Tiedje, J. M.; Wu, L.; Xia, J.; Zhou, J.

2016-12-01

Permafrost regions, which contain a large amount of temperature-protected organic carbon (C), could be a significant C source as climate gets warmer. Climate warming can result in physical (e.g., temperature rise and permafrost thaw) and biological (e.g., microbial community composition) changes in the permafrost regions. While it is well agreed that physical changes can accelerate C releases to the atmosphere by increasing thermodynamic reaction rates and the accessibility of soil organic C (SOC) to decomposers, how biological changes impact permafrost soil C loss is still unclear. In this study, we quantified the impact of the biological changes on soil C loss in an Alaskan tundra through combining a process-based model and a unique field experiment. Our results showed that warming reduced the allocation of gross primary production to plants. In addition, warming significantly changed soil microbial functional community structure and consequently, stimulated the turnover rate of SOC, but decreased the C use efficiency. The altered biological properties significantly intensified soil C loss. Our study suggests that the predicted C loss in the permafrost regions may be underestimated due to the absence of the biological changes in Earth system models.

Microclimate moderates plant responses to macroclimate warming

PubMed Central

De Frenne, Pieter; Rodríguez-Sánchez, Francisco; Coomes, David Anthony; Baeten, Lander; Verstraeten, Gorik; Vellend, Mark; Bernhardt-Römermann, Markus; Brown, Carissa D.; Brunet, Jörg; Cornelis, Johnny; Decocq, Guillaume M.; Dierschke, Hartmut; Eriksson, Ove; Gilliam, Frank S.; Hédl, Radim; Heinken, Thilo; Hermy, Martin; Hommel, Patrick; Jenkins, Michael A.; Kelly, Daniel L.; Kirby, Keith J.; Mitchell, Fraser J. G.; Naaf, Tobias; Newman, Miles; Peterken, George; Petřík, Petr; Schultz, Jan; Sonnier, Grégory; Van Calster, Hans; Waller, Donald M.; Walther, Gian-Reto; White, Peter S.; Woods, Kerry D.; Wulf, Monika; Graae, Bente Jessen; Verheyen, Kris

2013-01-01

Recent global warming is acting across marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems to favor species adapted to warmer conditions and/or reduce the abundance of cold-adapted organisms (i.e., “thermophilization” of communities). Lack of community responses to increased temperature, however, has also been reported for several taxa and regions, suggesting that “climatic lags” may be frequent. Here we show that microclimatic effects brought about by forest canopy closure can buffer biotic responses to macroclimate warming, thus explaining an apparent climatic lag. Using data from 1,409 vegetation plots in European and North American temperate forests, each surveyed at least twice over an interval of 12–67 y, we document significant thermophilization of ground-layer plant communities. These changes reflect concurrent declines in species adapted to cooler conditions and increases in species adapted to warmer conditions. However, thermophilization, particularly the increase of warm-adapted species, is attenuated in forests whose canopies have become denser, probably reflecting cooler growing-season ground temperatures via increased shading. As standing stocks of trees have increased in many temperate forests in recent decades, local microclimatic effects may commonly be moderating the impacts of macroclimate warming on forest understories. Conversely, increases in harvesting woody biomass—e.g., for bioenergy—may open forest canopies and accelerate thermophilization of temperate forest biodiversity. PMID:24167287

Experimental warming decreases arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal colonization in prairie plants along a Mediterranean climate gradient.

PubMed

Wilson, Hannah; Johnson, Bart R; Bohannan, Brendan; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Mueller, Rebecca; Bridgham, Scott D

2016-01-01

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) provide numerous services to their plant symbionts. Understanding climate change effects on AMF, and the resulting plant responses, is crucial for predicting ecosystem responses at regional and global scales. We investigated how the effects of climate change on AMF-plant symbioses are mediated by soil water availability, soil nutrient availability, and vegetation dynamics. We used a combination of a greenhouse experiment and a manipulative climate change experiment embedded within a Mediterranean climate gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA to examine this question. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to determine the direct and indirect effects of experimental warming on AMF colonization. Warming directly decreased AMF colonization across plant species and across the climate gradient of the study region. Other positive and negative indirect effects of warming, mediated by soil water availability, soil nutrient availability, and vegetation dynamics, canceled each other out. A warming-induced decrease in AMF colonization would likely have substantial consequences for plant communities and ecosystem function. Moreover, predicted increases in more intense droughts and heavier rains for this region could shift the balance among indirect causal pathways, and either exacerbate or mitigate the negative, direct effect of increased temperature on AMF colonization.

Using High Resolution Regional Climate Models to Quantify the Snow Albedo Feedback in a Region of Complex Terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Letcher, T.; Minder, J. R.

2015-12-01

High resolution regional climate models are used to characterize and quantify the snow albedo feedback (SAF) over the complex terrain of the Colorado Headwaters region. Three pairs of 7-year control and pseudo global warming simulations (with horizontal grid spacings of 4, 12, and 36 km) are used to study how the SAF modifies the regional climate response to a large-scale thermodynamic perturbation. The SAF substantially enhances warming within the Headwaters domain, locally as much as 5 °C in regions of snow loss. The SAF also increases the inter-annual variability of the springtime warming within Headwaters domain under the perturbed climate. Linear feedback analysis is used quantify the strength of the SAF. The SAF attains a maximum value of 4 W m-2 K-1 during April when snow loss coincides with strong incoming solar radiation. On sub-seasonal timescales, simulations at 4 km and 12 km horizontal grid-spacing show good agreement in the strength and timing of the SAF, whereas a 36km simulation shows greater discrepancies that are tired to differences in snow accumulation and ablation caused by smoother terrain. An analysis of the regional energy budget shows that transport by atmospheric motion acts as a negative feedback to regional warming, damping the effects of the SAF. On the mesoscale, this transport causes non-local warming in locations with no snow. The methods presented here can be used generally to quantify the role of the SAF in other regional climate modeling experiments.

Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

DOE PAGES

Bernstein, Diana N.; Neelin, J. David

2016-04-28

A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme.more » This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive dangerous ranges. Here, the low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.« less

Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernstein, Diana N.; Neelin, J. David

A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme.more » This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive dangerous ranges. Here, the low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.« less

Climate Variability and Dengue Fever in Warm and Humid Mexico

PubMed Central

Colón-González, Felipe J.; Lake, Iain R.; Bentham, Graham

2011-01-01

Multiple linear regression models were fitted to look for associations between changes in the incidence rate of dengue fever and climate variability in the warm and humid region of Mexico. Data were collected for 12 Mexican provinces over a 23-year period (January 1985 to December 2007). Our results show that the incidence rate or risk of infection is higher during El Niño events and in the warm and wet season. We provide evidence to show that dengue fever incidence was positively associated with the strength of El Niño and the minimum temperature, especially during the cool and dry season. Our study complements the understanding of dengue fever dynamics in the region and may be useful for the development of early warning systems. PMID:21540386

Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Reilly, Catherine; Sharma, Sapna; Gray, Derek; Hampton, Stephanie; Read, Jordan S.; Rowley, Rex J.; Schneider, Philipp; Lenters, John D.; McIntyre, Peter B.; Kraemer, Benjamin M.; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Straile, Dietmar; Dong, Bo; Adrian, Rita; Allan, Mathew G.; Anneville, Orlane; Arvola, Lauri; Austin, Jay; Bailey, John L.; Baron, Jill S.; Brookes, Justin D; de Eyto, Elvira; Dokulil, Martin T.; Hamilton, David P.; Havens, Karl; Hetherington, Amy L.; Higgins, Scott N.; Hook, Simon; Izmest'eva, Lyubov R.; Jöhnk, Klaus D.; Kangur, Külli; Kasprzak, Peter; Kumagai, Michio; Kuusisto, Esko; Leshkevich, George; Livingstone, David M.; MacIntyre, Sally; May, Linda; Melack, John M.; Mueller-Navara, Doerthe C.; Naumenko, Mikhail; Noges, Peeter; Noges, Tiina; North, Ryan P.; Plisnier, Pierre-Denis; Rigosi, Anna; Rimmer, Alon; Rogora, Michela; Rudstam, Lars G.; Rusak, James A.; Salmaso, Nico; Samal, Nihar R.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Schladow, Geoffrey; Schmid, Martin; Schmidt, Silke R.; Silow, Eugene A.; Soylu, M. Evren; Teubner, Katrin; Verburg, Piet; Voutilainen, Ari; Watkinson, Andrew; Williamson, Craig E.; Zhang, Guoqing

2015-01-01

In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite-derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade−1) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors—from seasonally ice-covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade−1) to ice-free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade−1). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes.

A New Wave of Permafrost Warming in the Alaskan Interior?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romanovsky, V. E.; Nicolsky, D.; Cable, W.; Kholodov, A. L.; Panda, S. K.

2017-12-01

The impact of climate warming on permafrost and the potential of climate feedbacks resulting from permafrost thawing have recently received a great deal of attention. Ground temperatures are a primary indicator of permafrost stability. Many of the research sites in our permafrost network are located along the North American Arctic Permafrost-Ecological Transect that spans all permafrost zones in Alaska. Most of the sites in Alaska show substantial warming of permafrost since the 1980s. The magnitude of warming has varied with location, but was typically from 0.5 to 3°C. However, this warming was not linear in time and not spatially uniform. In some regions this warming even may be reversed and a slight recent cooling of permafrost has been observed recently at some locations. The Interior of Alaska is one of such regions where a slight permafrost cooling was observed starting in the late 1990s that has continued through the 2000s and in the beginning of the 2010s. The cooling has followed the substantial increase in permafrost temperatures documented for the Interior during the 1980s and 1990s. Permafrost temperatures at 15 m depth increased here by 0.3 to 0.6°C between 1983 and 1996. In most locations they reached their maximum in the second half of the 1990s. Since then, the permafrost temperatures started to decrease slowly and by 2013 this decrease at some locations was as much as 0.3°C at 15 m depth. There are some indications that the warming trend in the Alaskan Interior permafrost resumed during the last four years. By 2016, new record highs for the entire period of measurements of permafrost temperatures at 15 m depth were recorded at several locations. The latest observed permafrost warming in the Interior was combined with higher than normal summer precipitations. This combination has triggered near-surface permafrost degradation in many locations with adverse consequences for the ground surface stability affecting ecosystems and infrastructure. In

Winter cold of eastern continental boundaries induced by warm ocean waters.

PubMed

Kaspi, Yohai; Schneider, Tapio

2011-03-31

In winter, northeastern North America and northeastern Asia are both colder than other regions at similar latitudes. This has been attributed to the effects of stationary weather systems set by elevated terrain (orography), and to a lack of maritime influences from the prevailing westerly winds. However, the differences in extent and orography between the two continents suggest that further mechanisms are involved. Here we show that this anomalous winter cold can result in part from westward radiation of large-scale atmospheric waves--nearly stationary Rossby waves--generated by heating of the atmosphere over warm ocean waters. We demonstrate this mechanism using simulations with an idealized general circulation model, with which we show that the extent of the cold region is controlled by properties of Rossby waves, such as their group velocity and its dependence on the planetary rotation rate. Our results show that warm ocean waters contribute to the contrast in mid-latitude winter temperatures between eastern and western continental boundaries not only by warming western boundaries, but also by cooling eastern boundaries.

Warm up I: potential mechanisms and the effects of passive warm up on exercise performance.

PubMed

Bishop, David

2003-01-01

Despite limited scientific evidence supporting their effectiveness, warm-up routines prior to exercise are a well-accepted practice. The majority of the effects of warm up have been attributed to temperature-related mechanisms (e.g. decreased stiffness, increased nerve-conduction rate, altered force-velocity relationship, increased anaerobic energy provision and increased thermoregulatory strain), although non-temperature-related mechanisms have also been proposed (e.g. effects of acidaemia, elevation of baseline oxygen consumption (.VO(2)) and increased postactivation potentiation). It has also been hypothesised that warm up may have a number of psychological effects (e.g. increased preparedness). Warm-up techniques can be broadly classified into two major categories: passive warm up or active warm up. Passive warm up involves raising muscle or core temperature by some external means, while active warm up utilises exercise. Passive heating allows one to obtain the increase in muscle or core temperature achieved by active warm up without depleting energy substrates. Passive warm up, although not practical for most athletes, also allows one to test the hypothesis that many of the performance changes associated with active warm up can be largely attributed to temperature-related mechanisms.

Probing the cold and warm molecular gas in the Whirlpool Galaxy: Herschel SPIRE-FTS observations of the central region of M51 (NGC 5194)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schirm, M. R. P.; Wilson, C. D.; Kamenetzky, J.; Parkin, T. J.; Glenn, J.; Maloney, P.; Rangwala, N.; Spinoglio, L.; Baes, M.; Boselli, A.; Cooray, A.; De Looze, I.; Fernández-Ontiveros, J. A.; Karczewski, O. Ł.; Wu, R.

2017-10-01

We present Herschel Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver (SPIRE)-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) intermediate-sampled mapping observations of the central ˜8 kpc (˜150 arcsec) of M51, with a spatial resolution of 40 arcsec. We detect four 12CO transitions (J = 4-3 to J = 7-6) and the [C I] 3P2-3P1 and 3P1-3P0 transitions. We supplement these observations with ground-based observations of 12CO J = 1-0 to J = 3-2 and perform a two-component non-local thermodynamic equilibrium analysis. We find that the molecular gas in the nucleus and centre regions has a cool component (Tkin ˜ 10-20 K) with a moderate but poorly constrained density (n(H2) ˜ 103-106 cm-3), as well as significant molecular gas in a warmer (Tkin ˜ 300-3000 K), lower density (n(H2) ˜ 101.6-102.5 cm-3) component. We compare our CO line ratios and calculated densities along with ratios of CO to total infrared luminosity to a grid of photon-dominated region (PDR) models and find that the cold molecular gas likely resides in PDRs with a field strength of G0 ˜ 102. The warm component likely requires an additional source of mechanical heating, from supernovae and stellar winds or possibly shocks produced in the strong spiral density wave. When compared to similar two-component models of other star-forming galaxies published as part of the Very Nearby Galaxies Survey (Arp 220, M82 and NGC 4038/39), M51 has the lowest density for the warm component, while having a warm gas mass fraction that is comparable to those of Arp 220 and M82, and significantly higher than that of NGC 4038/39.

Global warming in the context of 2000 years of Australian alpine temperature and snow cover.

PubMed

McGowan, Hamish; Callow, John Nikolaus; Soderholm, Joshua; McGrath, Gavan; Campbell, Micheline; Zhao, Jian-Xin

2018-03-13

Annual resolution reconstructions of alpine temperatures are rare, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere, while no snow cover reconstructions exist. These records are essential to place in context the impact of anthropogenic global warming against historical major natural climate events such as the Roman Warm Period (RWP), Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we show for a marginal alpine region of Australia using a carbon isotope speleothem reconstruction, warming over the past five decades has experienced equivalent magnitude of temperature change and snow cover decline to the RWP and MCA. The current rate of warming is unmatched for the past 2000 years and seasonal snow cover is at a minimum. On scales of several decades, mean maximum temperatures have undergone considerable change ≈ ± 0.8 °C highlighting local scale susceptibility to rapid temperature change, evidence of which is often masked in regional to hemisphere scale temperature reconstructions.

Controlled soil warming powered by alternative energy for remote field sites.

PubMed

Johnstone, Jill F; Henkelman, Jonathan; Allen, Kirsten; Helgason, Warren; Bedard-Haughn, Angela

2013-01-01

Experiments using controlled manipulation of climate variables in the field are critical for developing and testing mechanistic models of ecosystem responses to climate change. Despite rapid changes in climate observed in many high latitude and high altitude environments, controlled manipulations in these remote regions have largely been limited to passive experimental methods with variable effects on environmental factors. In this study, we tested a method of controlled soil warming suitable for remote field locations that can be powered using alternative energy sources. The design was tested in high latitude, alpine tundra of southern Yukon Territory, Canada, in 2010 and 2011. Electrical warming probes were inserted vertically in the near-surface soil and powered with photovoltaics attached to a monitoring and control system. The warming manipulation achieved a stable target warming of 1.3 to 2 °C in 1 m(2) plots while minimizing disturbance to soil and vegetation. Active control of power output in the warming plots allowed the treatment to closely match spatial and temporal variations in soil temperature while optimizing system performance during periods of low power supply. Active soil heating with vertical electric probes powered by alternative energy is a viable option for remote sites and presents a low-disturbance option for soil warming experiments. This active heating design provides a valuable tool for examining the impacts of soil warming on ecosystem processes.

Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

2017-10-01

Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

Remote sensing, global warming, and vector-borne disease

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, B.; Beck, L.; Dister, S.

1997-12-31

The relationship between climate change and the pattern of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are changes such as global warming, which are continental in scale and occur over periods of years, decades, or longer. At the opposite extreme are changes associated with severe weather events, which can occur at local and regional scales over periods of days, weeks, or months. Key ecological factors affecting the distribution of vector-borne diseases include temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability, and their impact on vectors, pathogens, reservoirs, and hosts. Global warming can potentially altermore » these factors, thereby affecting the spatial and temporal patterns of disease.« less

Attribution of the United States "warming hole": aerosol indirect effect and precipitable water vapor.

PubMed

Yu, Shaocai; Alapaty, Kiran; Mathur, Rohit; Pleim, Jonathan; Zhang, Yuanhang; Nolte, Chris; Eder, Brian; Foley, Kristen; Nagashima, Tatsuya

2014-11-06

Aerosols can influence the climate indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and/or ice nuclei, thereby modifying cloud optical properties. In contrast to the widespread global warming, the central and south central United States display a noteworthy overall cooling trend during the 20(th) century, with an especially striking cooling trend in summertime daily maximum temperature (Tmax) (termed the U.S. "warming hole"). Here we used observations of temperature, shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF), longwave cloud forcing (LWCF), aerosol optical depth and precipitable water vapor as well as global coupled climate models to explore the attribution of the "warming hole". We find that the observed cooling trend in summer Tmax can be attributed mainly to SWCF due to aerosols with offset from the greenhouse effect of precipitable water vapor. A global coupled climate model reveals that the observed "warming hole" can be produced only when the aerosol fields are simulated with a reasonable degree of accuracy as this is necessary for accurate simulation of SWCF over the region. These results provide compelling evidence of the role of the aerosol indirect effect in cooling regional climate on the Earth. Our results reaffirm that LWCF can warm both winter Tmax and Tmin.

Warm Debris Disk Candidates from WISE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Padgett, Deborah; Stapelfeldt, Karl; Liu, Wilson; Leisawitz, David

2011-01-01

The Wide Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) has just completed a sensitive all-sky survey in photometric bands at 3.4, 4.6, 12, and 22 microns. We report on a preliminary investigation of main sequence Hipparcos and Tycho catalog stars with 22 micron emission in excess of photospheric levels. This warm excess emission traces material in the circumstellar region likely to host terrestrial planets and is preferentially found in young systems with ages < 1 Gyr. Nearly a hundred new warm debris disk candidates are detected among FGK stars and 150 A stars within 120 pc. We are in the process of obtaining spectra to determine spectral types and activity level of these stars and are using HST, Herschel and Keck to characterize the dust, multiplicity, and substellar companions of these systems. In this contribution, we will discuss source selection methods and individual examples from among the WISE debris disk candidates.

El Niño suppresses Antarctic warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertler, Nancy A. N.; Barrett, Peter J.; Mayewski, Paul A.; Fogt, Ryan L.; Kreutz, Karl J.; Shulmeister, James

2004-08-01

Here we present new isotope records derived from snow samples from the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica and re-analysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-40) to explain the connection between the warming of the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean [Jacka and Budd, 1998; Jacobs et al., 2002] and the current cooling of the terrestrial Ross Sea region [Doran et al., 2002a]. Our analysis confirms previous findings that the warming is linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) [Kwok and Comiso, 2002a, 2002b; Carleton, 2003; Ribera and Mann, 2003; Turner, 2004], and provides new evidence that the terrestrial cooling is caused by a simultaneous ENSO driven change in atmospheric circulation, sourced in the Amundsen Sea and West Antarctica.

Spatial and Seasonal Calcification in Corals and Calcareous Crusts in a Naturally Warm Coral Reef Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roik, A.; Roder, C.; Roethig, T.; Voolstra, C. R.

2016-02-01

The Red Sea harbors highly diverse and structurally complex coral reefs and is of interest for ocean warming studies. In the central and southern part, water temperatures rise above 30°C during summer, constituting one of the warmest coral reef environments worldwide. Additionally, seasonal variability of temperatures allows studying changes of environmental conditions and their effects on coral reef processes. To explore the influence of these warm and seasonally variable habitats on reef calcification, we measured in situ calcification of primary and secondary reef-builders in the central Red Sea. We collected calcification rates on the major habitat-forming coral genera Porites, Acropora, and Pocillopora, and also on calcareous crusts (CC). The study comprised forereef and backreef environments of three reefs along a cross-shelf gradient assessed over four seasons of the year. Calcification patterns of all coral genera were consistent across the shelf and highest in spring. In contrast to the corals, CC calcification strongly increased with distance from shore, but varied to a lesser extend over the seasons demonstrating lower calcification rates during spring and summer. Interestingly, reef calcification rates in the central Red Sea were on average in the range of data reported from the Caribbean and Indo-Pacific. For Acropora, annual average calcification rates were even at the lower end in comparison to studies from other locations. While coral calcification maxima typically have been observed during summer in many reef locations worldwide, we observed calcification maxima during spring in the central Red Sea indicating that summer temperatures may exceed the optima of reef calcifiers. Our study provides a baseline of calcification data for the region and serves as a foundation for comparative efforts to quantify the impact of future environmental change.

Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, D. J.; Haywood, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Hunter, S. J.; Bragg, F. J.; Contoux, C.; Stepanek, C.; Sohl, L.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Chan, W.-L.;

40 CFR 49.11075 - Classification of regions for episode plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Implementation Plan for the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon § 49.11075 Classification of regions for episode plans. The air quality control region which encompasses the Warm Springs...

Does global warming amplify interannual climate variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Chao; Li, Tim

2018-06-01

Based on the outputs of 30 models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the fractional changes in the amplitude interannual variability (σ) for precipitation (P') and vertical velocity (ω') are assessed, and simple theoretical models are constructed to quantitatively understand the changes in σ(P') and σ(ω'). Both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios show similar results in term of the fractional change per degree of warming, with slightly lower inter-model uncertainty under RCP8.5. Based on the multi-model median, σ(P') generally increases but σ(ω') generally decreases under global warming but both are characterized by non-uniform spatial patterns. The σ(P') decrease over subtropical subsidence regions but increase elsewhere, with a regional averaged value of 1.4% K- 1 over 20°S-50°N under RCP8.5. Diagnoses show that the mechanisms for the change in σ(P') are different for climatological ascending and descending regions. Over ascending regions, the increase of mean state specific humidity contributes to a general increase of σ(P') but the change of σ(ω') dominates its spatial pattern and inter-model uncertainty. But over descending regions, the change of σ(P') and its inter-model uncertainty are constrained by the change of mean state precipitation. The σ(ω') is projected to be weakened almost everywhere except over equatorial Pacific, with a regional averaged fractional change of - 3.4% K- 1 at 500 hPa. The overall reduction of σ(ω') results from the increased mean state static stability, while the substantially increased σ(ω') at the mid-upper troposphere over equatorial Pacific and the inter-model uncertainty of the changes in σ(ω') are dominated by the change in the interannual variability of diabatic heating.

Global Warming: A Reduced Threat?.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaels, Patrick J.; Stooksbury, David E.

1992-10-01

One popular and apocalyptic vision of the world influenced by increasing concentrations of infrared-absorbing trace gases is that of ecological disaster brought about by rapidly rising temperatures, sea level, and evaporation rates. This vision developed from a suite of climate models that have since considerably changed in both their dynamics and their estimates of prospective warming. Observed temperatures indicate that much more warming should already have taken place than predicted by earlier models in the Northern Hemisphere, and that night, rather than day, readings in that hemisphere show a relative warming. A high-latitude polar-night warming or a general night warming could be either benign or beneficial. A large number of plant species show both increased growth and greater water-use efficiency under enhanced carbon dioxide.An extensive body of evidence now indicates that anthropo-generated sulfate emissions are mitigating some of the warming, and that increased cloudiness as a result of these emissions will further enhance night, rather than day, warming. The sulfate emissions, though, are not sufficient to explain all of the night warming. However, the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenerated aerosols, and the general lack of previously predicted warming, could drastically alter the debate on global warming in favor of less expensive policies.

Geographical and experimental contexts modulate the effect of warming on top-down control: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Marino, Nicholas Dos Anjos Cristiano; Romero, Gustavo Quevedo; Farjalla, Vinicius Fortes

2018-03-01

Ecologists have extensively investigated the effect of warming on consumer-resource interactions, with experiments revealing that warming can strengthen, weaken or have no net effect on top-down control of resources. These experiments have inspired a body of theoretical work to explain the variation in the effect of warming on top-down control. However, there has been no quantitative attempt to reconcile theory with outcomes from empirical studies. To address the gap between theory and experiment, we performed a meta-analysis to examine the combined effect of experimental warming and top-down control on resource biomass and determined potential sources of variation across experiments. We show that differences in experimental outcomes are related to systematic variation in the geographical distribution of studies. Specifically, warming strengthened top-down control when experiments were conducted in colder regions, but had the opposite effect in warmer regions. Furthermore, we found that differences in the thermoregulation strategy of the consumer and openness of experimental arenas to dispersal can contribute to some deviation from the overall geographical pattern. These results reconcile empirical findings and support the expectation of geographical variation in the response of consumer-resource interactions to warming. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Climate-induced warming imposes a threat to north European spring ecosystems.

PubMed

Jyväsjärvi, Jussi; Marttila, Hannu; Rossi, Pekka M; Ala-Aho, Pertti; Olofsson, Bo; Nisell, Jakob; Backman, Birgitta; Ilmonen, Jari; Virtanen, Risto; Paasivirta, Lauri; Britschgi, Ritva; Kløve, Bjørn; Muotka, Timo

2015-12-01

Interest in climate change effects on groundwater has increased dramatically during the last decade. The mechanisms of climate-related groundwater depletion have been thoroughly reviewed, but the influence of global warming on groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) remains poorly known. Here we report long-term water temperature trends in 66 northern European cold-water springs. A vast majority of the springs (82%) exhibited a significant increase in water temperature during 1968-2012. Mean spring water temperatures were closely related to regional air temperature and global radiative forcing of the corresponding year. Based on three alternative climate scenarios representing low (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP6) and high-emission scenarios (RCP8.5), we estimate that increase in mean spring water temperature in the region is likely to range from 0.67 °C (RCP2.6) to 5.94 °C (RCP8.5) by 2086. According to the worst-case scenario, water temperature of these originally cold-water ecosystems (regional mean in the late 1970s: 4.7 °C) may exceed 12 °C by the end of this century. We used bryophyte and macroinvertebrate species data from Finnish springs and spring-fed streams to assess ecological impacts of the predicted warming. An increase in spring water temperature by several degrees will likely have substantial biodiversity impacts, causing regional extinction of native, cold-stenothermal spring specialists, whereas species diversity of headwater generalists is likely to increase. Even a slight (by 1 °C) increase in water temperature may eliminate endemic spring species, thus altering bryophyte and macroinvertebrate assemblages of spring-fed streams. Climate change-induced warming of northern regions may thus alter species composition of the spring biota and cause regional homogenization of biodiversity in headwater ecosystems. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Are Sierran Lakes Warming as a Result of Climate Change? The Effects of Climate Warming and Variation in Precipitation on Water Temperature in a Snowmelt-Dominated Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadro, S.; Melack, J. M.; Sickman, J. O.; Skeen, K.

2016-12-01

Water temperature regulates a broad range of fundamental ecosystem processes in lakes. While climate can be an important factor regulating lake temperatures, heterogeneity in the warming response of lakes is large, and variation in precipitation is rarely considered. We analyzed three decades of climate and water temperature data from a high-elevation catchment in the southern Sierra Nevada of California to illustrate the magnitude of warming taking place during different seasons and the role of precipitation in regulating lake temperatures. Significant climate warming trends were evident during all seasons except spring. Nighttime rates of climate warming were approximately 25% higher than daytime rates. Spatial patterns in warming were elevation dependent, with rates of temperature increase higher at sites above 2800 m.a.s.l. than below. Although interannual variation in snow deposition was high, the frequency and severity of recent droughts has contributed to a significant 3.4 mm year -1 decline in snow water equivalent over the last century. Snow accumulation, more than any other climate factor, regulated lake temperature; 94% of variation in summer lake temperature was regulated by precipitation as snow. For every 100 mm decrease in snow water equivalent there was a 0.62 ° increase in lake temperature. Drought years amplify warming in lakes by reducing the role of cold spring meltwaters in lake energy budgets and prolonging the ice-free period during which lakes warm. The combination of declining winter snowpack and warming air temperatures has the capacity to amplify the effect of climate warming on lake temperatures during drought years. Interactions among climatic factors need to be considered when evaluating ecosystem level effects, especially in mountain regions. For mountain lakes already affected by drought, continued climate warming during spring and autumn has the greatest potential to impact mean lake temperatures.

Global peatland initiation driven by regionally asynchronous warming.

PubMed

Morris, Paul J; Swindles, Graeme T; Valdes, Paul J; Ivanovic, Ruza F; Gregoire, Lauren J; Smith, Mark W; Tarasov, Lev; Haywood, Alan M; Bacon, Karen L

2018-05-08

Widespread establishment of peatlands since the Last Glacial Maximum represents the activation of a globally important carbon sink, but the drivers of peat initiation are unclear. The role of climate in peat initiation is particularly poorly understood. We used a general circulation model to simulate local changes in climate during the initiation of 1,097 peatlands around the world. We find that peat initiation in deglaciated landscapes in both hemispheres was driven primarily by warming growing seasons, likely through enhanced plant productivity, rather than by any increase in effective precipitation. In Western Siberia, which remained ice-free throughout the last glacial period, the initiation of the world's largest peatland complex was globally unique in that it was triggered by an increase in effective precipitation that inhibited soil respiration and allowed wetland plant communities to establish. Peat initiation in the tropics was only weakly related to climate change, and appears to have been driven primarily by nonclimatic mechanisms such as waterlogging due to tectonic subsidence. Our findings shed light on the genesis and Holocene climate space of one of the world's most carbon-dense ecosystem types, with implications for understanding trajectories of ecological change under changing future climates.

Effects of climate warming on net primary productivity in China during 1961-2010.

PubMed

Gu, Fengxue; Zhang, Yuandong; Huang, Mei; Tao, Bo; Guo, Rui; Yan, Changrong

2017-09-01

The response of ecosystems to different magnitudes of climate warming and corresponding precipitation changes during the last few decades may provide an important reference for predicting the magnitude and trajectory of net primary productivity (NPP) in the future. In this study, a process-based ecosystem model, Carbon Exchange between Vegetation, Soil and Atmosphere (CEVSA), was used to investigate the response of NPP to warming at both national and subregional scales during 1961-2010. The results suggest that a 1.3°C increase in temperature stimulated the positive changing trend in NPP at national scale during the past 50 years. Regardless of the magnitude of temperature increase, warming enhanced the increase in NPP; however, the positive trend of NPP decreased when warming exceeded 2°C. The largest increase in NPP was found in regions where temperature increased by 1-2°C, and this rate of increase also contributed the most to the total increase in NPP in China's terrestrial ecosystems. Decreasing precipitation depressed the positive trend in NPP that was stimulated by warming. In northern China, warming depressed the increasing trend of NPP and warming that was accompanied by decreasing precipitation led to negative changing trends in NPP in large parts of northern China, especially when warming exceeded 2°C. However, warming stimulated the increase in NPP until warming was greater than 2°C, and decreased precipitation helped to increase the NPP in southern China.

Recent and future warm extreme events and high-mountain slope stability.

PubMed

Huggel, C; Salzmann, N; Allen, S; Caplan-Auerbach, J; Fischer, L; Haeberli, W; Larsen, C; Schneider, D; Wessels, R

2010-05-28

The number of large slope failures in some high-mountain regions such as the European Alps has increased during the past two to three decades. There is concern that recent climate change is driving this increase in slope failures, thus possibly further exacerbating the hazard in the future. Although the effects of a gradual temperature rise on glaciers and permafrost have been extensively studied, the impacts of short-term, unusually warm temperature increases on slope stability in high mountains remain largely unexplored. We describe several large slope failures in rock and ice in recent years in Alaska, New Zealand and the European Alps, and analyse weather patterns in the days and weeks before the failures. Although we did not find one general temperature pattern, all the failures were preceded by unusually warm periods; some happened immediately after temperatures suddenly dropped to freezing. We assessed the frequency of warm extremes in the future by analysing eight regional climate models from the recently completed European Union programme ENSEMBLES for the central Swiss Alps. The models show an increase in the higher frequency of high-temperature events for the period 2001-2050 compared with a 1951-2000 reference period. Warm events lasting 5, 10 and 30 days are projected to increase by about 1.5-4 times by 2050 and in some models by up to 10 times. Warm extremes can trigger large landslides in temperature-sensitive high mountains by enhancing the production of water by melt of snow and ice, and by rapid thaw. Although these processes reduce slope strength, they must be considered within the local geological, glaciological and topographic context of a slope.

[Effects of climate warming and drying on millet yield in Gansu Province and related countermeasures].

PubMed

Cao, Ling; Wang, Qiang; Deng, Zhen-yong; Guo, Xiao-qin; Ma, Xing-xiang; Ning, Hui-fang

2010-11-01

Based on the data of air temperature, precipitation, and millet yield from Ganzhou, Anding, and Xifeng, the representative stations in Hexi moderate arid oasis irrigation area, moderate sub-arid dry area in middle Gansu, and moderate sub-humid dry area in eastern Gansu, respectively, this paper calculated the regional active accumulated temperature of > or = 0 degrees C, > or =5 degrees C, > or =10 degrees C, > or =15 degrees C, and > or =20 degrees C in millet growth period, and the average temperature and precipitation in millet key growth stages. The millet climatic yield was isolated by orthogonal polynomial, and the change characteristics of climate and millet climatic yield as well as the effects of climate change on millet yield were analyzed by statistical methods of linear tendency, cumulative anomaly, and Mann-Kendall. The results showed that warming and drying were the main regional features in the modern climatic change of Gansu. The regional temperature had a significant upward trend since the early 1990s, while the precipitation was significantly reduced from the late 1980s. There were significant correlations between millet yield and climatic factors. The millet yield in dry areas increased with the increasing temperature and precipitation in millet key growth stages, and that in Hexi Corridor area increased with increasing temperature. Warming and drying affected millet yield prominently. The weather fluctuation index of regional millet yield in Xifeng, Anding, and Ganzhou accounted for 73%, 72%, and 54% of real output coefficient variation, respectively, and the percentages increased significantly after warming. Warming was conducive to the increase of millet production, and the annual increment of millet climatic yield in Xifeng, Anding, and Ganzhou after warming was 30.6, 43.1, and 121.1 kg x hm(-2), respectively. Aiming at the warming and drying trend in Gansu Province in the future, the millet planting area in the Province should be further

Vegetation-induced warming of high-latitude regions during the Late Cretaceous period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Upchurch, Garland R.

1997-02-01

Modelling studies of pre-Quaternary (>2 million years ago) climate implicate atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations1, land elevation2 and land-sea distribution3-5 as important factors influencing global climate change over geological timescales. But during times of global warmth, such as the Cretaceous period and Eocene epoch, there are large discrepancies between model simulations of high-latitude and continental-interior temperatures and those indicated by palaeotemperature records6,7. Here we use a global climate model for the latest Cretaceous (66 million years ago) to examine the role played by high- and middle-latitude forests in surface temperature regulation. In our simulations, this forest vegetation warms the global climate by 2.2 °C. The low-albedo deciduous forests cause high-latitude land areas to warm, which then transfer more heat to adjacent oceans, thus delaying sea-ice formation and increasing winter temperatures over coastal land. Overall, the inclusion of some of the physical and physiological climate feedback effects of high-latitude forest vegetation in our simulations reduces the existing discrepancies between observed and modelled climates of the latest Cretaceous, suggesting that these forests may have made an important contribution to climate regulation during periods of global warmth.

Elevated CO2 further lengthens growing season under warming conditions.

PubMed

Reyes-Fox, Melissa; Steltzer, Heidi; Trlica, M J; McMaster, Gregory S; Andales, Allan A; LeCain, Dan R; Morgan, Jack A

2014-06-12

Observations of a longer growing season through earlier plant growth in temperate to polar regions have been thought to be a response to climate warming. However, data from experimental warming studies indicate that many species that initiate leaf growth and flowering earlier also reach seed maturation and senesce earlier, shortening their active and reproductive periods. A conceptual model to explain this apparent contradiction, and an analysis of the effect of elevated CO2--which can delay annual life cycle events--on changing season length, have not been tested. Here we show that experimental warming in a temperate grassland led to a longer growing season through earlier leaf emergence by the first species to leaf, often a grass, and constant or delayed senescence by other species that were the last to senesce, supporting the conceptual model. Elevated CO2 further extended growing, but not reproductive, season length in the warmed grassland by conserving water, which enabled most species to remain active longer. Our results suggest that a longer growing season, especially in years or biomes where water is a limiting factor, is not due to warming alone, but also to higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations that extend the active period of plant annual life cycles.

Winners and losers: Ecological and biogeochemical changes in a warming ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutkiewicz, S.; Scott, J. R.; Follows, M. J.

2013-04-01

We employ a marine ecosystem model, with diverse and flexible phytoplankton communities, coupled to an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to explore mechanisms that will alter the biogeography and productivity of phytoplankton populations in a warming world. Simple theoretical frameworks and sensitivity experiments reveal that ecological and biogeochemical changes are driven by a balance between two impacts of a warming climate: higher metabolic rates (the "direct" effect), and changes in the supply of limiting nutrients and altered light environments (the "indirect" effect). On globally integrated productivity, the two effects compensate to a large degree. Regionally, the competition between effects is more complicated; patterns of productivity changes are different between high and low latitudes and are also regulated by how the supply of the limiting nutrient changes. These complex regional patterns are also found in the changes to broad phytoplankton functional groups. On the finer ecological scale of diversity within functional groups, we find that ranges of some phytoplankton types are reduced, while those of others (potentially minor players in the present ocean) expand. Combined change in areal extent of range and in regionally available nutrients leads to global "winners and losers." The model suggests that the strongest and most robust signal of the warming ocean is likely to be the large turnover in local phytoplankton community composition.

Role of land-surface changes in arctic summer warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chapin, F. S.; Sturm, M.; Serreze, Mark C.; McFadden, J.P.; Key, J.R.; Lloyd, A.H.; McGuire, A.D.; Rupp, T.S.; Lynch, A.H.; Schimel, Joshua P.; Beringer, J.; Chapman, W.L.; Epstein, H.E.; Euskirchen, E.S.; Hinzman, L.D.; Jia, G.; Ping, C.-L.; Tape, K.D.; Thompson, C.D.C.; Walker, D.A.; Welker, J.M.

2005-01-01

A major challenge in predicting Earth's future climate state is to understand feedbacks that alter greenhouse-gas forcing. Here we synthesize field data from arctic Alaska, showing that terrestrial changes in summer albedo contribute substantially to recent high-latitude warming trends. Pronounced terrestrial summer warming in arctic Alaska correlates with a lengthening of the snow-free season that has increased atmospheric heating locally by about 3 watts per square meter per decade (similar in magnitude to the regional heating expected over multiple decades from a doubling of atmospheric CO2). The continuation of current trends in shrub and tree expansion could further amplify this atmospheric heating by two to seven times.

Observed high-altitude warming and snow cover retreat over Tibet and the Himalayas enhanced by black carbon aerosols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Y.; Ramanathan, V.; Washington, W. M.

Himalayan mountain glaciers and the snowpack over the Tibetan Plateau provide the headwater of several major rivers in Asia. In situ observations of snow cover extent since the 1960s suggest that the snowpack in the region have retreated significantly, accompanied by a surface warming of 2–2.5°C observed over the peak altitudes (5000 m). Using a high-resolution ocean–atmosphere global climate model and an observationally constrained black carbon (BC) aerosol forcing, we attribute the observed altitude dependence of the warming trends as well as the spatial pattern of reductions in snow depths and snow cover extent to various anthropogenic factors. At themore » Tibetan Plateau altitudes, the increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration exerted a warming of 1.7°C, BC 1.3°C where as cooling aerosols cause about 0.7°C cooling, bringing the net simulated warming consistent with the anomalously large observed warming. We therefore conclude that BC together with CO 2 has contributed to the snow retreat trends. In particular, BC increase is the major factor in the strong elevation dependence of the observed surface warming. The atmospheric warming by BC as well as its surface darkening of snow is coupled with the positive snow albedo feedbacks to account for the disproportionately large role of BC in high-elevation regions. Here, these findings reveal that BC impact needs to be properly accounted for in future regional climate projections, in particular on high-altitude cryosphere.« less

Observed high-altitude warming and snow cover retreat over Tibet and the Himalayas enhanced by black carbon aerosols

DOE PAGES

Xu, Y.; Ramanathan, V.; Washington, W. M.

2016-02-05

Himalayan mountain glaciers and the snowpack over the Tibetan Plateau provide the headwater of several major rivers in Asia. In situ observations of snow cover extent since the 1960s suggest that the snowpack in the region have retreated significantly, accompanied by a surface warming of 2–2.5°C observed over the peak altitudes (5000 m). Using a high-resolution ocean–atmosphere global climate model and an observationally constrained black carbon (BC) aerosol forcing, we attribute the observed altitude dependence of the warming trends as well as the spatial pattern of reductions in snow depths and snow cover extent to various anthropogenic factors. At themore » Tibetan Plateau altitudes, the increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration exerted a warming of 1.7°C, BC 1.3°C where as cooling aerosols cause about 0.7°C cooling, bringing the net simulated warming consistent with the anomalously large observed warming. We therefore conclude that BC together with CO 2 has contributed to the snow retreat trends. In particular, BC increase is the major factor in the strong elevation dependence of the observed surface warming. The atmospheric warming by BC as well as its surface darkening of snow is coupled with the positive snow albedo feedbacks to account for the disproportionately large role of BC in high-elevation regions. Here, these findings reveal that BC impact needs to be properly accounted for in future regional climate projections, in particular on high-altitude cryosphere.« less

Sensitivity to cutaneous warm stimuli varies greatly in the human head.

PubMed

Kim, Yung-Bin; Jung, Dahee; Park, Joonhee; Lee, Joo-Young

2017-10-01

The head has been known as the most sensitive area to temperature changes but the values are limited to the face. The purpose of this study was to examine cutaneous warm thresholds on the scalp and face of young males. Eight males participated in this study (24 ± 3 yrs in age, 178.2 ± 5.3cm in height, and 90.0 ± 15.4kg in body mass). All measurements were conducted in an environmental chamber (27 ± 1°C air temperature and 53 ± 1% relative humidity). Cutaneous warm thresholds were measured on nine areas of the following regions: the frontal (two points on the right), parietal (a point on the right and the vertex, respectively), temporal (two points on the right), and occipital region (on the right) along with the forehead using a thermal stimulator (rate of temperature increase 0.1°Cs -1 ). Skin temperatures on the nine head regions were monitored during the threshold test. The results showed that 1) no significant differences were found in initial skin temperatures among the nine head regions; 2) cutaneous warm detecting temperatures were significantly greater on the vertex (38.2 ± 3.5°C) than on the forehead (34.8 ± 1.4°C) and the other seven scalp regions (P < 0.05); 3) subjects detected the increase of 1.2 ± 1.0°C on the forehead and 1.5 ± 1.2°C on the occipital region as the first warmth while the vertex was the most insensitive to the increase of temperature (4.0 ± 3.2°C) (P < 0.05). In summary, the scalp region of young males was less sensitive to the temperature change when compared to the forehead, and the vertex was the most insensitive among the eight scalp regions to the temperature increase. We conclude that the entire head should be considered as a binary topography with the face and the scalp in terms of cutaneous thermal sensitivity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Suppressed midlatitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qigang; Cheng, Luyao; Chan, Duo; Yao, Yonghong; Hu, Haibo; Yao, Ying

2016-03-01

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heat waves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH midlatitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation(AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH midlatitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

The response of Antarctica MLT region for the recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) over Southern Hemisphere (SH): An overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eswaraiah, S.; Kim, Y.; Lee, J.; Kim, J. H.; Venkat Ratnam, M.; Riggin, D. M.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.

2017-12-01

A minor Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) was noticed in the southern hemisphere (SH) during the September (day 259) 2010 along with two episodic warmings in early August (day 212) and late October (day 300) 2010. The signature of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) response was detected using the ground based and space borne observations along with the model predictions. The changes in the mesosphere wind field were studied from the observations of both meteor radar and MF radar located at King Sejong Station (62.22°S, 58.78°W) and Rothera (68oS, 68oW), Antarctica, respectively. The zonal winds in the mesosphere reversed approximately a week before the September SSW occurrence. We have also analyzed the MLT tides using both the radars and noticed strong enhancement of semi-diurnal tide (SDT) a few days later the cessation of 2010 SSW. We note the similar enhancement during the 2002 major SSW. Specifically, the SDT amplitude enhancement is greater for the 2010 SSW than 2002 SSW. We found that strong 14-16 day PWs prevailed prior to the 2010 minor SSW and disappeared suddenly after the SSW in the mesosphere by generating the quasi-secondary waves of periodicity 3-9 days. The mesosphere wind reversal is also noticed in "Specified Dynamics" version of Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) and Ground-to-topside model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA) simulations. The similar zonal wind weakening/reversal in the lower thermosphere between 100 and 140 km are simulated by GAIA. Further, we observed the mesospheric cooling in consistency with SSWs using Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) data. However, the GAIA simulations showed warming between 130 and 140 km after few days of SSW. Thus, the observation and model simulation indicate for the first time that the 2010 minor SSW also affects dynamics of the MLT region over SH in a manner similar to the 2002 major SSW.

Active Movement Warm-Up Routines

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walter, Teri; Quint, Ashleigh; Fischer, Kim; Kiger, Joy

2011-01-01

This article presents warm-ups that are designed to physiologically and psychologically prepare students for vigorous physical activity. An active movement warm-up routine is made up of three parts: (1) active warm-up movement exercises, (2) general preparation, and (3) the energy system. These warm-up routines can be used with all grade levels…

Understanding the tropical warm temperature bias simulated by climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio

2017-04-01

The state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models have difficulties in representing the observed spatial pattern of surface tempertaure. A majority of them suffers a warm bias in the tropical subsiding regions located over the eastern parts of oceans. These regions are usually covered by low-level clouds scattered from stratus along the coasts to more vertically developed shallow cumulus farther from them. Models usually fail to represent accurately this transition. Here we investigate physical drivers of this warm bias in CMIP5 models through a near-surface energy budget perspective. We show that overestimated solar insolation due to a lack of stratocumulus mostly explains the warm bias. This bias also arises partly from inter-model differences in surface fluxes that could be traced to differences in near-surface relative humidity and air-sea temperature gradient. We investigate the role of the atmosphere in driving surface biases by comparing historical and atmopsheric (AMIP) experiments. We show that some differences in boundary-layer characteristics, mostly those related to cloud fraction and relative humidity, are already present in AMIP experiments and may be the drivers of coupled biases. This gives insights in how models can be improved for better simulations of the tropical climate.

Thermal niches are more conserved at cold than warm limits in arctic-alpine plant species

PubMed Central

Pellissier, Loïc; Bråthen, Kari Anne; Vittoz, Pascal; Yoccoz, Nigel G.; Dubuis, Anne; Meier, Eliane S.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Randin, Christophe F.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Garraud, Luc; Van Es, Jérémie; Guisan, Antoine

2014-01-01

Aim Understanding the stability of realized niches is crucial for predicting the responses of species to climate change. One approach is to evaluate the niche differences of populations of the same species that occupy regions that are geographically disconnected. Here, we assess niche conservatism along thermal gradients for 26 plant species with a disjunct distribution between the Alps and the Arctic. Location European Alps and Norwegian Finnmark. Methods We collected a comprehensive dataset of 26 arctic-alpine plant occurrences in two regions. We assessed niche conservatism through a multispecies comparison and analysed species rankings at cold and warm thermal limits along two distinct gradients corresponding to (1) air temperatures at 2 m above ground level and (2) elevation distances to the tree line (TLD) for the two regions. We assessed whether observed relationships were close to those predicted under thermal limit conservatism. Results We found a weak similarity in species ranking at the warm thermal limits. The range of warm thermal limits for the 26 species was much larger in the Alps than in Finnmark. We found a stronger similarity in species ranking and correspondence at the cold thermal limit along the gradients of 2-m temperature and TLD. Yet along the 2-m temperature gradient the cold thermal limits of species in the Alps were lower on average than those in Finnmark. Main conclusion We found low conservatism of the warm thermal limits but a stronger conservatism of the cold thermal limits. We suggest that biotic interactions at the warm thermal limit are likely to modulate species responses more strongly than at the cold limit. The differing biotic context between the two regions is probably responsible for the observed differences in realized niches. PMID:24790524

Different sensitivities of snowpacks to warming in Mediterranean climate mountain areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Moreno, J. I.; Gascoin, S.; Herrero, J.; Sproles, E. A.; Pons, M.; Alonso-González, E.; Hanich, L.; Boudhar, A.; Musselman, K. N.; Molotch, N. P.; Sickman, J.; Pomeroy, J.

2017-07-01

In this study we quantified the sensitivity of snow to climate warming in selected mountain sites having a Mediterranean climate, including the Pyrenees in Spain and Andorra, the Sierra Nevada in Spain and California (USA), the Atlas in Morocco, and the Andes in Chile. Meteorological observations from high elevations were used to simulate the snow energy and mass balance (SEMB) and calculate its sensitivity to climate. Very different climate sensitivities were evident amongst the various sites. For example, reductions of 9%-19% and 6-28 days in the mean snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow duration, respectively, were found per °C increase. Simulated changes in precipitation (±20%) did not affect the sensitivities. The Andes and Atlas Mountains have a shallow and cold snowpack, and net radiation dominates the SEMB; and explains their relatively low sensitivity to climate warming. The Pyrenees and USA Sierra Nevada have a deeper and warmer snowpack, and sensible heat flux is more important in the SEMB; this explains the much greater sensitivities of these regions. Differences in sensitivity help explain why, in regions where climate models project relatively greater temperature increases and drier conditions by 2050 (such as the Spanish Sierra Nevada and the Moroccan Atlas Mountains), the decline in snow accumulation and duration is similar to other sites (such as the Pyrenees and the USA Sierra Nevada), where models project stable precipitation and more attenuated warming. The snowpack in the Andes (Chile) exhibited the lowest sensitivity to warming, and is expected to undergo only moderate change (a decrease of <12% in mean SWE, and a reduction of < 7 days in snow duration under RCP 4.5). Snow accumulation and duration in the other regions are projected to decrease substantially (a minimum of 40% in mean SWE and 15 days in snow duration) by 2050.

Warming experiments elucidate the drivers of observed directional changes in tundra vegetation

PubMed Central

Hollister, Robert D; May, Jeremy L; Kremers, Kelseyann S; Tweedie, Craig E; Oberbauer, Steven F; Liebig, Jennifer A; Botting, Timothy F; Barrett, Robert T; Gregory, Jessica L

2015-01-01

Few studies have clearly linked long-term monitoring with in situ experiments to clarify potential drivers of observed change at a given site. This is especially necessary when findings from a site are applied to a much broader geographic area. Here, we document vegetation change at Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska, occurring naturally and due to experimental warming over nearly two decades. An examination of plant cover, canopy height, and community indices showed more significant differences between years than due to experimental warming. However, changes with warming were more consistent than changes between years and were cumulative in many cases. Most cases of directional change observed in the control plots over time corresponded with a directional change in response to experimental warming. These included increases in canopy height and decreases in lichen cover. Experimental warming resulted in additional increases in evergreen shrub cover and decreases in diversity and bryophyte cover. This study suggests that the directional changes occurring at the sites are primarily due to warming and indicates that further changes are likely in the next two decades if the regional warming trend continues. These findings provide an example of the utility of coupling in situ experiments with long-term monitoring to accurately document vegetation change in response to global change and to identify the underlying mechanisms driving observed changes. PMID:26140204

The Warm Plasma Composition in the Inner Magnetosphere during 2012–2015

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jahn, J. M.; Goldstein, J.; Reeves, Geoffrey D.

Ionospheric heavy ions play an important role in the dynamics of Earth's magnetosphere. The greater mass and gyro radius of ionospheric oxygen differentiates its behavior from protons at the same energies. Oxygen may have an impact on tail reconnection processes, and it can at least temporarily dominate the energy content of the ring current during geomagnetic storms. At sub-keV energies, multi-species ion populations in the inner magnetosphere form the warm plasma cloak, occupying the energy range between the plasmasphere and the ring current. Lastly, cold lighter ions from the mid-latitude ionosphere create the co-rotating plasmasphere whose outer regions can interactmore » with the plasma cloak, plasma sheet, ring current, and outer electron belt. Here in this paper we present a statistical view of warm, cloak-like ion populations in the inner magnetosphere, contrasting in particular the warm plasma composition during quiet and active times. We study the relative abundances and absolute densities of warm plasma measured by the Van Allen Probes, whose two spacecraft cover the inner magnetosphere from plasmaspheric altitudes close to Earth to just inside geostationary orbit. We observe that warm (>30 eV) oxygen is most abundant closer to the plasmasphere boundary whereas warm hydrogen dominates closer to geostationary orbit. Warm helium is usually a minor constituent, but shows a noticeable enhancement in the near-Earth dusk sector.« less

The Warm Plasma Composition in the Inner Magnetosphere during 2012–2015

DOE PAGES

Jahn, J. M.; Goldstein, J.; Reeves, Geoffrey D.; ...

2017-09-11

Ionospheric heavy ions play an important role in the dynamics of Earth's magnetosphere. The greater mass and gyro radius of ionospheric oxygen differentiates its behavior from protons at the same energies. Oxygen may have an impact on tail reconnection processes, and it can at least temporarily dominate the energy content of the ring current during geomagnetic storms. At sub-keV energies, multi-species ion populations in the inner magnetosphere form the warm plasma cloak, occupying the energy range between the plasmasphere and the ring current. Lastly, cold lighter ions from the mid-latitude ionosphere create the co-rotating plasmasphere whose outer regions can interactmore » with the plasma cloak, plasma sheet, ring current, and outer electron belt. Here in this paper we present a statistical view of warm, cloak-like ion populations in the inner magnetosphere, contrasting in particular the warm plasma composition during quiet and active times. We study the relative abundances and absolute densities of warm plasma measured by the Van Allen Probes, whose two spacecraft cover the inner magnetosphere from plasmaspheric altitudes close to Earth to just inside geostationary orbit. We observe that warm (>30 eV) oxygen is most abundant closer to the plasmasphere boundary whereas warm hydrogen dominates closer to geostationary orbit. Warm helium is usually a minor constituent, but shows a noticeable enhancement in the near-Earth dusk sector.« less

Evidence of thermophilisation and elevation-dependent warming during the Last Interglacial in the Italian Alps.

PubMed

Johnston, V E; Borsato, A; Frisia, S; Spötl, C; Dublyansky, Y; Töchterle, P; Hellstrom, J C; Bajo, P; Edwards, R L; Cheng, H

2018-02-08

Thermophilisation is the response of plants communities in mountainous areas to increasing temperatures, causing an upward migration of warm-adapted (thermophilic) species and consequently, the timberline. This greening, associated with warming, causes enhanced evapotranspiration that leads to intensification of the hydrological cycle, which is recorded by hydroclimate-sensitive archives, such as stalagmites and flowstones formed in caves. Understanding how hydroclimate manifests at high altitudes is important for predicting future water resources of many regions of Europe that rely on glaciers and snow accumulation. Using proxy data from three coeval speleothems (stalagmites and flowstone) from the Italian Alps, we reconstructed both the ecosystem and hydrological setting during the Last Interglacial (LIG); a warm period that may provide an analogue to a near-future climate scenario. Our speleothem proxy data, including calcite fabrics and the stable isotopes of calcite and fluid inclusions, indicate a +4.3 ± 1.6 °C temperature anomaly at ~2000 m a.s.l. for the peak LIG, with respect to present-day values (1961-1990). This anomaly is significantly higher than any low-altitude reconstructions for the LIG in Europe, implying elevation-dependent warming during the LIG. The enhanced warming at high altitudes must be accounted for when considering future climate adaption strategies in sensitive mountainous regions.

Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, G.; Alfieri, L.; Wyser, K.; Mentaschi, L.; Betts, R. A.; Carrao, H.; Spinoni, J.; Vogt, J.; Feyen, L.

2018-04-01

Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply-demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South-eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100-year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming.

Soil warming opens the nitrogen cycle at the alpine treeline.

PubMed

Dawes, Melissa A; Schleppi, Patrick; Hättenschwiler, Stephan; Rixen, Christian; Hagedorn, Frank

2017-01-01

Climate warming may alter ecosystem nitrogen (N) cycling by accelerating N transformations in the soil, and changes may be especially pronounced in cold regions characterized by N-poor ecosystems. We investigated N dynamics across the plant-soil continuum during 6 years of experimental soil warming (2007-2012; +4 °C) at a Swiss high-elevation treeline site (Stillberg, Davos; 2180 m a.s.l.) featuring Larix decidua and Pinus uncinata. In the soil, we observed considerable increases in the NH4+ pool size in the first years of warming (by >50%), but this effect declined over time. In contrast, dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) concentrations in soil solutions from the organic layer increased under warming, especially in later years (maximum of +45% in 2012), suggesting enhanced DON leaching from the main rooting zone. Throughout the experimental period, foliar N concentrations showed species-specific but small warming effects, whereas δ 15 N values showed a sustained increase in warmed plots that was consistent for all species analysed. The estimated total plant N pool size at the end of the study was greater (+17%) in warmed plots with Pinus but not in those containing Larix, with responses driven by trees. Irrespective of plot tree species identity, warming led to an enhanced N pool size of Vaccinium dwarf shrubs, no change in that of Empetrum hermaphroditum (dwarf shrub) and forbs, and a reduction in that of grasses, nonvascular plants, and fine roots. In combination, higher foliar δ 15 N values and the transient response in soil inorganic N indicate a persistent increase in plant-available N and greater cumulative plant N uptake in warmer soils. Overall, greater N availability and increased DON concentrations suggest an opening of the N cycle with global warming, which might contribute to growth stimulation of some plant species while simultaneously leading to greater N losses from treeline ecosystems and possibly other cold biomes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons

Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability.

PubMed

Turner, John; Lu, Hua; White, Ian; King, John C; Phillips, Tony; Hosking, J Scott; Bracegirdle, Thomas J; Marshall, Gareth J; Mulvaney, Robert; Deb, Pranab

2016-07-21

Since the 1950s, research stations on the Antarctic Peninsula have recorded some of the largest increases in near-surface air temperature in the Southern Hemisphere. This warming has contributed to the regional retreat of glaciers, disintegration of floating ice shelves and a 'greening' through the expansion in range of various flora. Several interlinked processes have been suggested as contributing to the warming, including stratospheric ozone depletion, local sea-ice loss, an increase in westerly winds, and changes in the strength and location of low-high-latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here we use a stacked temperature record to show an absence of regional warming since the late 1990s. The annual mean temperature has decreased at a statistically significant rate, with the most rapid cooling during the Austral summer. Temperatures have decreased as a consequence of a greater frequency of cold, east-to-southeasterly winds, resulting from more cyclonic conditions in the northern Weddell Sea associated with a strengthening mid-latitude jet. These circulation changes have also increased the advection of sea ice towards the east coast of the peninsula, amplifying their effects. Our findings cover only 1% of the Antarctic continent and emphasize that decadal temperature changes in this region are not primarily associated with the drivers of global temperature change but, rather, reflect the extreme natural internal variability of the regional atmospheric circulation.

Warming of the Global Ocean: Spatial Structure and Water-Mass Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B.; Worthen, Denise L.

2016-01-01

This study investigates the multidecadal warming and interannual-to-decadal heat content changes in the upper ocean (0-700 m), focusing on vertical and horizontal patterns of variability. These results support a nearly monotonic warming over much of the World Ocean, with a shift toward Southern Hemisphere warming during the well-observed past decade. This is based on objectively analyzed gridded observational datasets and on a modeled state estimate. Besides the surface warming, a warming climate also has a subsurface effect manifesting as a strong deepening of the midthermocline isopycnals, which can be diagnosed directly from hydrographic data. This deepening appears to be a result of heat entering via subduction and spreading laterally from the high-latitude ventilation regions of subtropical mode waters. The basin-average multidecadal warming mainly expands the subtropical mode water volume, with weak changes in the temperature-salinity (u-S) relationship (known as ''spice'' variability). However, the spice contribution to the heat content can be locally large, for example in Southern Hemisphere. Multidecadal isopycnal sinking has been strongest over the southern basins and weaker elsewhere with the exception of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current/subtropical recirculation gyre. At interannual to decadal time scales, wind-driven sinking and shoaling of density surfaces still dominate ocean heat content changes, while the contribution from temperature changes along density surfaces tends to decrease as time scales shorten.

Consequences of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokam Mba, Wilfried; Longandjo, Georges-Noel T.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Bell, Jean-Pierre; James, Rachel; Vondou, Derbetini A.; Haensler, Andreas; Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.; Merlin Guenang, Guy; Djiotang Tchotchou, Angennes Lucie; Kamsu-Tamo, Pierre H.; Takong, Ridick R.; Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Christopher J.; Dosio, Alessandro

2018-05-01

Discriminating climate impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels is particularly important for Central Africa, a vulnerable region where multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to constrain the region’s adaptive capacity. This study uses an ensemble of 25 transient Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the CORDEX initiative, forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, to investigate the potential temperature and precipitation changes in Central Africa corresponding to 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Global climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to drive the RCMs and determine timing of the targeted global warming levels. The regional warming differs over Central Africa between 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Whilst there are large uncertainties associated with projections at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, the 0.5 °C increase in global temperature is associated with larger regional warming response. Compared to changes in temperature, changes in precipitation are more heterogeneous and climate model simulations indicate a lack of consensus across the region, though there is a tendency towards decreasing seasonal precipitation in March–May, and a reduction of consecutive wet days. As a drought indicator, a significant increase in consecutive dry days was found. Consistent changes of maximum 5 day rainfall are also detected between 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C global warming levels.

Rapid warming accelerates tree growth decline in semi-arid forests of Inner Asia.

PubMed

Liu, Hongyan; Park Williams, A; Allen, Craig D; Guo, Dali; Wu, Xiuchen; Anenkhonov, Oleg A; Liang, Eryuan; Sandanov, Denis V; Yin, Yi; Qi, Zhaohuan; Badmaeva, Natalya K

2013-08-01

Forests around the world are subject to risk of high rates of tree growth decline and increased tree mortality from combinations of climate warming and drought, notably in semi-arid settings. Here, we assess how climate warming has affected tree growth in one of the world's most extensive zones of semi-arid forests, in Inner Asia, a region where lack of data limits our understanding of how climate change may impact forests. We show that pervasive tree growth declines since 1994 in Inner Asia have been confined to semi-arid forests, where growing season water stress has been rising due to warming-induced increases in atmospheric moisture demand. A causal link between increasing drought and declining growth at semi-arid sites is corroborated by correlation analyses comparing annual climate data to records of tree-ring widths. These ring-width records tend to be substantially more sensitive to drought variability at semi-arid sites than at semi-humid sites. Fire occurrence and insect/pathogen attacks have increased in tandem with the most recent (2007-2009) documented episode of tree mortality. If warming in Inner Asia continues, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be expected, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi-arid forests. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of experimental warming on soil temperature, moisture and respiration in northern Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharkhuu, A.; Plante, A. F.; Casper, B. B.; Helliker, B. R.; Liancourt, P.; Boldgiv, B.; Petraitis, P.

2010-12-01

Mean annual air temperature in the Lake Hövsgöl region of northern Mongolia has increased by 1.8 °C over the last 40 years, greater than global average temperature increases. A decrease of soil moisture due to changes in precipitation regime is also predicted over the northern region of Mongolia. Warmer temperatures generally result in higher soil CO2 efflux, but responses of soil efflux to climate change may differ among ecosystems due to response variations in soil temperature and moisture regime. The objectives of our study were to examine the environmental responses (soil temperature and moisture) to experimental warming, and to test responses of soil CO2 efflux to experimental warming, in three different ecozones. The experimental site is located in Dalbay Valley, on the eastern shore of Lake Hövsgöl in northern Mongolia (51.0234° N 100.7600° E; 1670 m elevation). Replicate plots with ITEX-style open-top passive warming chambers (OTC) and non-warmed control areas were installed in three ecosystems: (1) semi-arid grassland on the south-facing slope not underlain by permafrost, (2) riparian zone, and (3) larch forest on the north-facing slope underlain by permafrost. Aboveground air temperature and belowground soil temperature and moisture (10 and 20 cm) were monitored using sensors and dataloggers. Soil CO2 efflux was measured periodically using a portable infra-red gas analyzer with an attached soil respiration chamber. The warming chambers were installed and data collected during the 2009 and 2010 growing seasons. Passive warming chambers increased nighttime air temperatures; more so in grassland compared to the forest. Increases in daytime air temperatures were observed in the grassland, but were not significant in the riparian and forest areas. Soil temperatures in warmed plots were consistently higher in all three ecozones at 10 cm depth but not at 20 cm depth. Warming chambers had a slight drying effect in the grassland, but no consistent effect in

Warm Mix Asphalt

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-04-17

State of Alaska State of Alaska - Warm Mix Project Warm Mix Project: Location - Petersburg, Alaska which is Petersburg, Alaska which is located in the heart of Southeast Alaska located in the heart of Southeast Alaska's Inside Passage at the tip of M...

The Differential Warming Response of Britain’s Rivers (1982–2011)

PubMed Central

Jonkers, Art R. T.; Sharkey, Kieran J.

2016-01-01

River water temperature is a hydrological feature primarily controlled by topographical, meteorological, climatological, and anthropogenic factors. For Britain, the study of freshwater temperatures has focussed mainly on observations made in England and Wales; similar comprehensive data sets for Scotland are currently unavailable. Here we present a model for the whole of mainland Britain over three recent decades (1982–2011) that incorporates geographical extrapolation to Scotland. The model estimates daily mean freshwater temperature for every river segment and for any day in the studied period, based upon physico-geographical features, daily mean air and sea temperatures, and available freshwater temperature measurements. We also extrapolate the model temporally to predict future warming of Britain’s rivers given current observed trends. Our results highlight the spatial and temporal diversity of British freshwater temperatures and warming rates. Over the studied period, Britain’s rivers had a mean temperature of 9.84°C and experienced a mean warming of +0.22°C per decade, with lower rates for segments near lakes and in coastal regions. Model results indicate April as the fastest-warming month (+0.63°C per decade on average), and show that most rivers spend on average ever more days of the year at temperatures exceeding 10°C, a critical threshold for several fish pathogens. Our results also identify exceptional warming in parts of the Scottish Highlands (in April and September) and pervasive cooling episodes, in December throughout Britain and in July in the southwest of England (in Wales, Cornwall, Devon, and Dorset). This regional heterogeneity in rates of change has ramifications for current and future water quality, aquatic ecosystems, as well as for the spread of waterborne diseases. PMID:27832108

Enhanced Climatic Warming Over the Tibetan Plateau Due to Doubling CO2: A Model Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Baode; Chao, Winston C.; Liu, Xiaodong; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A number of studies have presented the evidences that surface climate change associated with global warming at high elevation sites shows more pronounced warming than at low elevations, i.e. an elevation dependency of climatic warming pointed out that snow-albedo feedback may be responsible for the excessive warming in the Swiss Alps. From an ensemble of climate change experiments of increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols using an air-sea coupled climate model, Eyre and Raw (1999) found a marked elevation dependency of the simulated surface screen temperature increase over the Rocky Mountains. Using almost all available instrumental records, Liu and Chen (2000) showed that the main portion of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced significant ground temperature warming since the middlebrows, especially in winter, and that there is a tendency for the warming trend to increase with elevation in the TP as well as its surrounding areas. In this paper, we will investigate the mechanism of elevation dependency of climatic warming in the TP by using a high-resolution regional climate model.

Tree water dynamics in a drying and warming world

DOE PAGES

Grossiord, Charlotte; Sevanto, Sanna Annika; Borrego, Isaac Anthony; ...

2017-05-26

Disentangling the relative impacts of precipitation reduction and vapour pressure deficit ( VPD) on plant water dynamics and determining whether acclimation may influence these patterns in the future is an important challenge. Here, we report sap flux density ( FD), stomatal conductance ( Gs), hydraulic conductivity ( KL) and xylem anatomy in piñon pine ( Pinus edulis) and juniper ( Juniperus monosperma) trees subjected to five years of precipitation reduction, atmospheric warming (elevated VPD) and their combined effects. No acclimation occurred under precipitation reduction: lower Gs and FD were found for both species compared to ambient conditions. Warming reduced themore » sensibility of stomata to VPD for both species but resulted in the maintenance of Gs and FD to ambient levels only for piñon. For juniper, reduced soil moisture under warming negated benefits of stomatal adjustments and resulted in reduced FD, Gs and KL. Although reduced stomatal sensitivity to VPD also occurred under combined stresses, reductions in Gs, FD and KL took place to similar levels as under single stresses for both species. Here our results show that stomatal conductance adjustments to high VPD could minimize but not entirely prevent additive effects of warming and drying on water use and carbon acquisition of trees in semi-arid regions.« less

Tree water dynamics in a drying and warming world

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grossiord, Charlotte; Sevanto, Sanna Annika; Borrego, Isaac Anthony

Disentangling the relative impacts of precipitation reduction and vapour pressure deficit ( VPD) on plant water dynamics and determining whether acclimation may influence these patterns in the future is an important challenge. Here, we report sap flux density ( FD), stomatal conductance ( Gs), hydraulic conductivity ( KL) and xylem anatomy in piñon pine ( Pinus edulis) and juniper ( Juniperus monosperma) trees subjected to five years of precipitation reduction, atmospheric warming (elevated VPD) and their combined effects. No acclimation occurred under precipitation reduction: lower Gs and FD were found for both species compared to ambient conditions. Warming reduced themore » sensibility of stomata to VPD for both species but resulted in the maintenance of Gs and FD to ambient levels only for piñon. For juniper, reduced soil moisture under warming negated benefits of stomatal adjustments and resulted in reduced FD, Gs and KL. Although reduced stomatal sensitivity to VPD also occurred under combined stresses, reductions in Gs, FD and KL took place to similar levels as under single stresses for both species. Here our results show that stomatal conductance adjustments to high VPD could minimize but not entirely prevent additive effects of warming and drying on water use and carbon acquisition of trees in semi-arid regions.« less

C4 grasses prosper as carbon dioxide eliminates desiccation in warmed semi-arid grassland.

PubMed

Morgan, Jack A; LeCain, Daniel R; Pendall, Elise; Blumenthal, Dana M; Kimball, Bruce A; Carrillo, Yolima; Williams, David G; Heisler-White, Jana; Dijkstra, Feike A; West, Mark

2011-08-03

Global warming is predicted to induce desiccation in many world regions through increases in evaporative demand. Rising CO(2) may counter that trend by improving plant water-use efficiency. However, it is not clear how important this CO(2)-enhanced water use efficiency might be in offsetting warming-induced desiccation because higher CO(2) also leads to higher plant biomass, and therefore greater transpirational surface. Furthermore, although warming is predicted to favour warm-season, C(4) grasses, rising CO(2) should favour C(3), or cool-season plants. Here we show in a semi-arid grassland that elevated CO(2) can completely reverse the desiccating effects of moderate warming. Although enrichment of air to 600 p.p.m.v. CO(2) increased soil water content (SWC), 1.5/3.0 °C day/night warming resulted in desiccation, such that combined CO(2) enrichment and warming had no effect on SWC relative to control plots. As predicted, elevated CO(2) favoured C(3) grasses and enhanced stand productivity, whereas warming favoured C(4) grasses. Combined warming and CO(2) enrichment stimulated above-ground growth of C(4) grasses in 2 of 3 years when soil moisture most limited plant productivity. The results indicate that in a warmer, CO(2)-enriched world, both SWC and productivity in semi-arid grasslands may be higher than previously expected.

How warm days increase belief in global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

2014-02-01

Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

Mapping the Impact of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions on Cloud Formation and Warm-season Rainfall in Mountainous Regions Using Observations and Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Yajuan

Light rainfall (< 3 mm/hr) amounts to 30-70% of the annual water budget in the Southern Appalachian Mountains (SAM), a mid-latitude mid-mountain system in the SE CONUS. Topographic complexity favors the diurnal development of regional-scale convergence patterns that provide the moisture source for low-level clouds and fog (LLCF). Low-level moisture and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are distributed by ridge-valley circulations favoring LLCF formation that modulate the diurnal cycle of rainfall especially the mid-day peak. The overarching objective of this dissertation is to advance the quantitative understanding of the indirect effect of aerosols on the diurnal cycle of LLCF and warm-season precipitation in mountainous regions generally, and in the SAM in particular, for the purpose of improving the representation of orographic precipitation processes in remote sensing retrievals and physically-based models. The research approach consists of integrating analysis of in situ observations from long-term observation networks and an intensive field campaign, multi-sensor satellite data, and modeling studies. In the first part of this dissertation, long-term satellite observations are analyzed to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of LLCF and to elucidate the physical basis of the space-time error structure in precipitation retrievals. Significantly underestimated precipitation errors are attributed to variations in low-level rainfall microstructure undetected by satellites. Column model simulations including observed LLCF microphysics demonstrate that seeder-feeder interactions (SFI) among upper-level precipitation and LLCF contribute to an three-fold increase in observed rainfall accumulation and can enhance surface rainfall by up to ten-fold. The second part of this dissertation examines the indirect effect of aerosols on cloud formation and warm-season daytime precipitation in the SAM. A new entraining spectral cloud parcel model was developed and

Investigating warming trends and spatial patterns of Land Surface Temperatures over the Greater Los Angeles Area using new MODIS and VIIRS LST products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malakar, N. K.; Hulley, G. C.

2016-12-01

The Los Angeles (LA) metropolitan area is one of the fastest growing urban centers in the United States, and home to roughly 18 million people. Understanding the trends and impacts of warming temperatures in urban environments is an increasingly important issue in our changing climate. We used thermal infrared data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensors to retrieve Land Surface Temperature using a new Temperature Emissivity Separation algorithm adapted for these sensors. We analyzed day and night LST retrievals to study the warming trends of LST for the greater LA region from 2002-2015. The average warming trend over LA for summer days and nights over this period for MODIS Aqua data was 1.1 °C per decade, while a more rapid warming is observed for the years 2012-2016 for both MODIS and VIIRS observations. We have also found that inland LA regions are warming more rapidly than the other regions. We further investigate the underlying cause of the warming by looking into the physical factors such as changes in net radiation, cloud cover, and evapotranspiration. The results will help to understand how indicators of climate change are evolving in the beginning of the 21st century, and how they compare with global climate model projections. Identification of potential impacts, and underlying causes of warming trends in various LA regions will help decision makers to develop policies to help mitigate the effects of rising temperatures.

Changes in regional heatwave characteristics as a function of increasing global temperature.

PubMed

Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S E; Gibson, P B

2017-09-25

The Paris Agreement calls for global warming to be limited to 1.5-2 °C. For the first time, this study investigates how different regional heatwave characteristics (intensity, frequency and duration) are projected to change relative to increasing global warming thresholds. Increases in heatwave days between 4-34 extra days per season are projected per °C of global warming. Some tropical regions could experience up to 120 extra heatwave days/season if 5 °C is reached. Increases in heatwave intensity are generally 0.5-1.5 °C above a given global warming threshold, however are higher over the Mediterranean and Central Asian regions. Between warming thresholds of 1.5 °C and 2.5 °C, the return intervals of intense heatwaves reduce by 2-3 fold. Heatwave duration is projected to increase by 2-10 days/°C, with larger changes over lower latitudes. Analysis of two climate model ensembles indicate that variation in the rate of heatwave changes is dependent on physical differences between different climate models, however internal climate variability bears considerable influence on the expected range of regional heatwave changes per warming threshold. The results of this study reiterate the potential for disastrous consequences associated with regional heatwaves if global mean warming is not limited to 2 degrees.

Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkhordarian, Armineh; von Storch, Hans; Zorita, Eduardo; Loikith, Paul C.; Mechoso, Carlos R.

2017-10-01

We investigate whether the recently observed trends in daily maximum and minimum near-surface air temperature (Tmax and Tmin, respectively) over South America (SA) are consistent with the simulated response of Tmin and Tmax to anthropogenic forcing. Results indicate that the recently observed warming in the dry seasons is well beyond the range of natural (internal) variability. In the wet season the natural modes of variability explain a substantial portion of Tmin and Tmax variability. We demonstrate that the large-scale component of greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is detectable in dry-seasonal warming. However, none of the global and regional climate change projections reproduce the observed warming of up to 0.6 K/Decade in Tmax in 1983-2012 over northern SA during the austral spring (SON). Thus, besides the global manifestation of GHG forcing, other external drivers have an imprint. Using aerosols-only forcing simulations, our results provide evidence that anthropogenic aerosols also have a detectable influence in SON and that the indirect effect of aerosols on cloud's lifetime is more compatible with the observed record. In addition, there is an increasing trend in the observed incoming solar radiation over northern SA in SON, which is larger than expected from natural (internal) variability alone. We further show that in the dry seasons the spread of projected trends based on the RCP4.5 scenario derived from 30 CMIP5 models encompasses the observed area-averaged trends in Tmin and Tmax. This may imply that the observed excessive warming in the dry seasons serve as an illustration of plausible future expected change in the region.

Warm dark matter effects in a spherical collapse model with shear and angular momentum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marciu, Mihai

2016-03-01

This paper investigates the nonlinear structure formation in a spherical top-hat collapse model based on the pseudo-Newtonian approximation. The system is composed of warm dark matter and dark energy and the dynamical properties of the collapsing region are analyzed for various parametrizations of the dark matter equation of state which are in agreement with current observations. Concerning dark energy, observational constraints of the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder model and the Jassal-Bagla-Padmanabhan equation of state have been considered. During the collapse, the positive dark matter pressure leads to an increase of growth for dark matter and dark energy perturbations and an accelerated expansion for the spherical region. Hence, in the warm dark matter hypothesis, the structure formation is accelerated and the inconsistencies of the Λ CDM model at the galactic scales could be solved. The results obtained are applicable only to adiabatic warm dark matter physical models which are compatible with the pseudo-Newtonian approach.

Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, Jacob; Levermann, Anders

2017-07-01

Projections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change. Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 to 300 % over the 21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non-linearly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture source regions, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming level. We argue that this behavior is consistent with a self-amplifying dynamic-thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today's core monsoon region.

The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus

PubMed Central

Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

2015-01-01

Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes. PMID:26568024

Potential impacts of global warming on water resources in southern California.

PubMed

Beuhler, M

2003-01-01

Global warming will have a significant impact on water resources within the 20 to 90-year planning period of many water projects. Arid and semi-arid regions such as Southern California are especially vulnerable to anticipated negative impacts of global warming on water resources. Long-range water facility planning must consider global climate change in the recommended mix of new facilities needed to meet future water requirements. The generally accepted impacts of global warming include temperature, rising sea levels, more frequent and severe floods and droughts, and a shift from snowfall to rain. Precipitation changes are more difficult to predict. For Southern California, these impacts will be especially severe on surface water supplies. Additionally, rising sea levels will exacerbate salt-water intrusion into freshwater and impact the quality of surface water supplies. Integrated water resources planning is emerging as a tool to develop water supplies and demand management strategies that are less vulnerable to the impacts of global warming. These tools include water conservation, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and desalination of brackish water and possibly seawater. Additionally, planning for future water needs should include explicit consideration of the potential range of global warming impacts through techniques such as scenario planning.

The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus.

PubMed

Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

2015-11-16

Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.

Suppressed mid-latitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Q.

2016-12-01

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heatwaves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature (SST) warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH mid-latitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH mid-latitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

Response of ocean ecosystems to climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarmiento, J. L.; Slater, R.; Barber, R.; Bopp, L.; Doney, S. C.; Hirst, A. C.; Kleypas, J.; Matear, R.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Monfray, P.; Soldatov, V.; Spall, S. A.; Stouffer, R.

2004-09-01

a global increase in primary production of 0.7% at the low end to 8.1% at the high end, with very large regional differences. The main cause of both the response to warming and the variation between algorithms is the temperature sensitivity of the primary production algorithms. We also show results for the period between the industrial revolution and 2050 and 2090.

Perceptions of Global Warming Among the Poorest Counties in the Southeastern United States.

PubMed

Kearney, Gregory D; Bell, Ronny A

2018-03-07

The geographic position and high level of poverty in the southeastern United States are significant risk factors that contribute to the region's high vulnerability to climate change. The goal of this study was to evaluate beliefs and perceptions of global warming among those living in poverty in the poorest counties in the southeastern United States. Results from this project may be used to support public health efforts to increase climate-related messaging to vulnerable and underserved communities. This was an ecological study that analyzed public opinion poll estimates from previously gathered national level survey data (2016). Responses to 5 questions related to beliefs, attitudes, and perceptions of global warming were evaluated. Counties below the national average poverty level (13.5%) were identified among 11 southeastern US states (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia). Student t tests were used to compare public perceptions of global warming among the poorest urban and rural counties with national-level public opinion estimates. Overall, counties below the national poverty level in the southeastern US were significantly less likely to believe that global warming was happening compared with national-level estimates. The poorest rural counties were less likely to believe that global warming was happening than the poorest urban counties. Health care providers and public health leaders at regional and local levels are in ideal positions to raise awareness and advocate the health implications of climate change to decision makers for the benefit of helping underserved communities mitigate and adequately adapt to climate-related threats.

Impact of Soil Warming on the Plant Metabolome of Icelandic Grasslands.

PubMed

Gargallo-Garriga, Albert; Ayala-Roque, Marta; Sardans, Jordi; Bartrons, Mireia; Granda, Victor; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D; Leblans, Niki I W; Oravec, Michal; Urban, Otmar; Janssens, Ivan A; Peñuelas, Josep

2017-08-23

Climate change is stronger at high than at temperate and tropical latitudes. The natural geothermal conditions in southern Iceland provide an opportunity to study the impact of warming on plants, because of the geothermal bedrock channels that induce stable gradients of soil temperature. We studied two valleys, one where such gradients have been present for centuries (long-term treatment), and another where new gradients were created in 2008 after a shallow crustal earthquake (short-term treatment). We studied the impact of soil warming (0 to +15 °C) on the foliar metabolomes of two common plant species of high northern latitudes: Agrostis capillaris , a monocotyledon grass; and Ranunculus acris , a dicotyledonous herb, and evaluated the dependence of shifts in their metabolomes on the length of the warming treatment. The two species responded differently to warming, depending on the length of exposure. The grass metabolome clearly shifted at the site of long-term warming, but the herb metabolome did not. The main up-regulated compounds at the highest temperatures at the long-term site were saccharides and amino acids, both involved in heat-shock metabolic pathways. Moreover, some secondary metabolites, such as phenolic acids and terpenes, associated with a wide array of stresses, were also up-regulated. Most current climatic models predict an increase in annual average temperature between 2-8 °C over land masses in the Arctic towards the end of this century. The metabolomes of A. capillaris and R. acris shifted abruptly and nonlinearly to soil warming >5 °C above the control temperature for the coming decades. These results thus suggest that a slight warming increase may not imply substantial changes in plant function, but if the temperature rises more than 5 °C, warming may end up triggering metabolic pathways associated with heat stress in some plant species currently dominant in this region.

Impact of Soil Warming on the Plant Metabolome of Icelandic Grasslands

PubMed Central

Gargallo-Garriga, Albert; Ayala-Roque, Marta; Granda, Victor; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D.; Leblans, Niki I. W.; Oravec, Michal; Urban, Otmar; Janssens, Ivan A.

2017-01-01

Climate change is stronger at high than at temperate and tropical latitudes. The natural geothermal conditions in southern Iceland provide an opportunity to study the impact of warming on plants, because of the geothermal bedrock channels that induce stable gradients of soil temperature. We studied two valleys, one where such gradients have been present for centuries (long-term treatment), and another where new gradients were created in 2008 after a shallow crustal earthquake (short-term treatment). We studied the impact of soil warming (0 to +15 °C) on the foliar metabolomes of two common plant species of high northern latitudes: Agrostis capillaris, a monocotyledon grass; and Ranunculus acris, a dicotyledonous herb, and evaluated the dependence of shifts in their metabolomes on the length of the warming treatment. The two species responded differently to warming, depending on the length of exposure. The grass metabolome clearly shifted at the site of long-term warming, but the herb metabolome did not. The main up-regulated compounds at the highest temperatures at the long-term site were saccharides and amino acids, both involved in heat-shock metabolic pathways. Moreover, some secondary metabolites, such as phenolic acids and terpenes, associated with a wide array of stresses, were also up-regulated. Most current climatic models predict an increase in annual average temperature between 2–8 °C over land masses in the Arctic towards the end of this century. The metabolomes of A. capillaris and R. acris shifted abruptly and nonlinearly to soil warming >5 °C above the control temperature for the coming decades. These results thus suggest that a slight warming increase may not imply substantial changes in plant function, but if the temperature rises more than 5 °C, warming may end up triggering metabolic pathways associated with heat stress in some plant species currently dominant in this region. PMID:28832555

Asymmetric effects of daytime and night-time warming on Northern Hemisphere vegetation.

PubMed

Peng, Shushi; Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Myneni, Ranga B; Chen, Anping; Chevallier, Frédéric; Dolman, Albertus J; Janssens, Ivan A; Peñuelas, Josep; Zhang, Gengxin; Vicca, Sara; Wan, Shiqiang; Wang, Shiping; Zeng, Hui

2013-09-05

Temperature data over the past five decades show faster warming of the global land surface during the night than during the day. This asymmetric warming is expected to affect carbon assimilation and consumption in plants, because photosynthesis in most plants occurs during daytime and is more sensitive to the maximum daily temperature, Tmax, whereas plant respiration occurs throughout the day and is therefore influenced by both Tmax and the minimum daily temperature, Tmin. Most studies of the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming, however, ignore this asymmetric forcing effect on vegetation growth and carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes. Here we analyse the interannual covariations of the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, an indicator of vegetation greenness) with Tmax and Tmin over the Northern Hemisphere. After removing the correlation between Tmax and Tmin, we find that the partial correlation between Tmax and NDVI is positive in most wet and cool ecosystems over boreal regions, but negative in dry temperate regions. In contrast, the partial correlation between Tmin and NDVI is negative in boreal regions, and exhibits a more complex behaviour in dry temperate regions. We detect similar patterns in terrestrial net CO2 exchange maps obtained from a global atmospheric inversion model. Additional analysis of the long-term atmospheric CO2 concentration record of the station Point Barrow in Alaska suggests that the peak-to-peak amplitude of CO2 increased by 23 ± 11% for a +1 °C anomaly in Tmax from May to September over lands north of 51° N, but decreased by 28 ± 14% for a +1 °C anomaly in Tmin. These lines of evidence suggest that asymmetric diurnal warming, a process that is currently not taken into account in many global carbon cycle models, leads to a divergent response of Northern Hemisphere vegetation growth and carbon sequestration to rising temperatures.

Global warming: knowledge and views of Iranian students.

PubMed

Yazdanparast, Taraneh; Salehpour, Sousan; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Seyedmehdi, Seyed Mohammad; Boyes, Eddie; Stanisstreet, Martin; Attarchi, Mirsaeed

2013-04-06

Study of students' knowledge about global warming can help authorities to have better imagination of this critical environmental problem. This research examines high school students' ideas about greenhouse effect and the results may be useful for the respective authorities to improve cultural and educational aspects of next generation. In this cross-sectional study, a 42 question questionnaire with mix of open and closed questions was used to evaluate high school students' view about the mechanism, consequences, causes and cures of global warming. To assess students' knowledge, cognitive score was also calculated. 1035 students were randomly selected from 19 educational districts of Tehran. Sampling method was multi stage. Only 5.1% of the students could explain greenhouse effect correctly and completely. 88.8% and 71.2% respectively believed "if the greenhouse effect gets bigger the Earth will get hotter" and "incidence of more skin cancers is a consequence of global warming". 69.6% and 68.8% respectively thought "the greenhouse effect is made worse by too much carbon dioxide" and "presence of ozone holes is a cause of greenhouse effect". 68.4% believed "not using cars so much is a cure for global warming". While a student's 'cognitive score' could range from -36 to +36, Students' mean cognitive score was equal to +1.64. Mean cognitive score of male students and grade 2 & 3 students was respectively higher than female ones (P<0.01) and grade 1 students (P<0.001) but there was no statistically significant difference between students of different regions (P>0.05). In general, students' knowledge about global warming was not acceptable and there were some misconceptions in the students' mind, such as supposing ozone holes as a cause and more skin cancer as a consequence of global warming. The Findings of this survey indicate that, this important stratum of society have been received no sufficient and efficient education and sensitization on this matter.

Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming.

PubMed

Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Munguía-Vega, Adrián; Beger, Maria; Del Mar Mancha-Cisneros, Maria; Suárez-Castillo, Alvin N; Gurney, Georgina G; Pressey, Robert L; Gerber, Leah R; Morzaria-Luna, Hem Nalini; Reyes-Bonilla, Héctor; Adams, Vanessa M; Kolb, Melanie; Graham, Erin M; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Castillo-López, Alejandro; Hinojosa-Arango, Gustavo; Petatán-Ramírez, David; Moreno-Baez, Marcia; Godínez-Reyes, Carlos R; Torre, Jorge

2018-02-01

Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of

Large benefits to marine fisheries of meeting the 1.5°C global warming target.

PubMed

Cheung, William W L; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Frölicher, Thomas L

2016-12-23

Translating the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial level into impact-related targets facilitates communication of the benefits of mitigating climate change to policy-makers and stakeholders. Developing ecologically relevant impact-related targets for marine ecosystem services, such as fisheries, is an important step. Here, we use maximum catch potential and species turnover as climate-risk indicators for fisheries. We project that potential catches will decrease by more than 3 million metric tons per degree Celsius of warming. Species turnover is more than halved when warming is lowered from 3.5° to 1.5°C above the preindustrial level. Regionally, changes in maximum catch potential and species turnover vary across ecosystems, with the biggest risk reduction in the Indo-Pacific and Arctic regions when the Paris Agreement target is achieved. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

A Robust Response of Precipitation to Global Warming from CMIP5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. -M.; Wu, H. -T.; Kim, K. -M.

2012-01-01

How precipitation responds to global warming is a major concern to society and a challenge to climate change research. Based on analyses of rainfall probability distribution functions of 14 state-of-the-art climate models, we find a robust, canonical global rainfall response to a triple CO2 warming scenario, featuring 100 250% more heavy rain, 5-10% less moderate rain, and 10-15% more very light or no-rain events. Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy rain events over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, and more dry events over subtropical and tropical land areas. Results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce basic structural changes in global rain systems, increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.

Persisting and strong warming hiatus over eastern China during the past two decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yang; Zhai, Panmao

2017-10-01

During the past two decades since 1997, eastern China has experienced a warming hiatus punctuated by significant cooling in daily-minimum temperature (Tmin), particularly during early-mid winter. By arbitrarily configuring start and end years, a ‘vantage hiatus period’ in eastern China is detected over 1998-2013, during when the domain-averaged Tmin exhibited the strongest cooling trend and the number of significant cooling stations peaked. Regions most susceptible to the warming hiatus are located in North China, the Yangtze-Huai River Valley and South China, where significant cooling in Tmin persisted through 2016. This sustained hiatus gave rise to increasingly frequent and severe cold extremes there. Concerning its prolonged persistency and great cooling rate, the recent warming hiatus over eastern China deviates much from most historical short-term trends during the past five decades, and thus could be viewed as an outlier against the prevalent warming context.

Warm Up to a Good Sound

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tovey, David C.

1977-01-01

Most choral directors in schools today have been exposed to a variety of warm-up procedures. Yet, many do not use the warm-up time effectively as possible. Considers the factors appropriate to a warm-up exercise and three basic warm-up categories. (Author/RK)

Contribution of Anthropogenic Warming to California Drought During 2012-2014

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, A. Park; Seager, Richard; Abatzoglou, John T.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Cook, Edward R.

2015-01-01

A suite of climate data sets and multiple representations of atmospheric moisture demand are used to calculate many estimates of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for near-surface soil moisture, across California from 1901 to 2014 at high spatial resolution. Based on the ensemble of calculations, California drought conditions were record breaking in 2014, but probably not record breaking in 2012-2014, contrary to prior findings. Regionally, the 2012-2014 drought was record breaking in the agriculturally important southern Central Valley and highly populated coastal areas. Contributions of individual climate variables to recent drought are also examined, including the temperature component associated with anthropogenic warming. Precipitation is the primary driver of drought variability but anthropogenic warming is estimated to have accounted for 8-27 percent of the observed drought anomaly in 2012-2014 and 5-18 percent in 2014. Although natural variability dominates, anthropogenic warming has substantially increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts.

The Holocene warm-humid phases in the North China Plain as recorded by multi-proxy records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Jianxin; Zhou, Shangzhe; Chang, Hong

2009-02-01

The grain size and palinology of sediment and the frequency of 14C dada provide an integrated reconstruction of the Holocene warm-humid phases of the North China Plain. Two clear intense and long-lasting warm-humid phases were identified by comprehensive research in this region. The first phase was dated back to the early Holocene (9 000-7 000 a BP), and the second was centered at 5 000-3 000 a BP. The warm-humid episode between 9 000 and 7 000 a BP was also recognized at other sites showing global climatic trends rather than local events. Compared with the concern to the warm-humid phase of the early Holocene, the second one was not paid enough attention in the last few decades. The compilation of the Holocene paleoclimate data suggests that perhaps the second warm-humid phase was pervasive in monsoon region of China. In perspective of environmental archaeology, much attention should be devoted to it, because the flourish and adaptation of the Neolithic cultures and the building up of the first state seem to corresponding to the general warm-humid climatic conditions of this period. In addition, a warm-humid interval at 7 200-6 500 a BP was recognized by the grain size data from three sites. However, this warm-humid event was not shown in pollen assemblage and temporal distribution of 14C data. Perhaps, the resolution for climatic reconstruction from pollen and temporal distribution of 14C data cited here is relatively low and small-amplitude and short-period climatic events cannot be well reflected by the data. Due to the difference in locality and elevation of sampling site, as well as in resolution of proxy records, it is difficult to make precise correlation. Further work is needed in the future.

Committed warming inferred from observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, Thorsten; Pincus, Robert

2017-09-01

Due to the lifetime of CO2, the thermal inertia of the oceans, and the temporary impacts of short-lived aerosols and reactive greenhouse gases, the Earth’s climate is not equilibrated with anthropogenic forcing. As a result, even if fossil-fuel emissions were to suddenly cease, some level of committed warming is expected due to past emissions as studied previously using climate models. Here, we provide an observational-based quantification of this committed warming using the instrument record of global-mean warming, recently improved estimates of Earth’s energy imbalance, and estimates of radiative forcing from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Compared with pre-industrial levels, we find a committed warming of 1.5 K (0.9-3.6, 5th-95th percentile) at equilibrium, and of 1.3 K (0.9-2.3) within this century. However, when assuming that ocean carbon uptake cancels remnant greenhouse gas-induced warming on centennial timescales, committed warming is reduced to 1.1 K (0.7-1.8). In the latter case there is a 13% risk that committed warming already exceeds the 1.5 K target set in Paris. Regular updates of these observationally constrained committed warming estimates, although simplistic, can provide transparent guidance as uncertainty regarding transient climate sensitivity inevitably narrows and the understanding of the limitations of the framework is advanced.

Assemblages of micronektonic fishes and invertebrates in a gradient of regional warming along the Western Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Melanie L.; Fraser, William R.; Ashford, Julian; Patarnello, Tomaso; Zane, Lorenzo; Torres, Joseph J.

2015-12-01

mid-peninsula assemblage was oceanic in character, being overwhelmingly dominated by Thysanoessa macrura and T. gaudichaudii. Pleuragramma antarctica were captured at five sites: Joinville Island, Croker Passage, Marguerite Bay, and the two sites near Charcot Island. They were completely absent at the two sites near Anvers Island, at Renaud Island, and in the Marguerite Trough. One fish was captured in Croker Passage. The majority of fish captured in Marguerite Bay were larger than 150 mm standard length (SL), with very few fish of smaller size present. If resident populations of Pleuragramma reproduce and recruit locally rather than being sustained by larval advection, those populations will be highly susceptible to local disappearance. This may be the causative factor behind the absence of Pleuragramma from the mid-peninsula region. Continued warming and subsequent sea ice reductions may not only cause Pleuragramma population collapses in the Marguerite Bay and Charcot Island regions, but may also change the character of the faunal assemblages along the WAP to those of an oceanic system.

Increased wintertime CO2 loss as a result of sustained tundra warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Elizabeth E.; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Natali, Susan M.; Oken, Kiva L.; Bracho, Rosvel; Krapek, John P.; Risk, David; Nickerson, Nick R.

2016-02-01

Permafrost soils currently store approximately 1672 Pg of carbon (C), but as high latitudes warm, this temperature-protected C reservoir will become vulnerable to higher rates of decomposition. In recent decades, air temperatures in the high latitudes have warmed more than any other region globally, particularly during the winter. Over the coming century, the arctic winter is also expected to experience the most warming of any region or season, yet it is notably understudied. Here we present nonsummer season (NSS) CO2 flux data from the Carbon in Permafrost Experimental Heating Research project, an ecosystem warming experiment of moist acidic tussock tundra in interior Alaska. Our goals were to quantify the relationship between environmental variables and winter CO2 production, account for subnivean photosynthesis and late fall plant C uptake in our estimate of NSS CO2 exchange, constrain NSS CO2 loss estimates using multiple methods of measuring winter CO2 flux, and quantify the effect of winter soil warming on total NSS CO2 balance. We measured CO2 flux using four methods: two chamber techniques (the snow pit method and one where a chamber is left under the snow for the entire season), eddy covariance, and soda lime adsorption, and found that NSS CO2 loss varied up to fourfold, depending on the method used. CO2 production was dependent on soil temperature and day of season but atmospheric pressure and air temperature were also important in explaining CO2 diffusion out of the soil. Warming stimulated both ecosystem respiration and productivity during the NSS and increased overall CO2 loss during this period by 14% (this effect varied by year, ranging from 7 to 24%). When combined with the summertime CO2 fluxes from the same site, our results suggest that this subarctic tundra ecosystem is shifting away from its historical function as a C sink to a C source.

Elevational ranges of birds on a tropical montane gradient lag behind warming temperatures.

PubMed

Forero-Medina, German; Terborgh, John; Socolar, S Jacob; Pimm, Stuart L

2011-01-01

Species may respond to a warming climate by moving to higher latitudes or elevations. Shifts in geographic ranges are common responses in temperate regions. For the tropics, latitudinal temperature gradients are shallow; the only escape for species may be to move to higher elevations. There are few data to suggest that they do. Yet, the greatest loss of species from climate disruption may be for tropical montane species. We repeat a historical transect in Peru and find an average upward shift of 49 m for 55 bird species over a 41 year interval. This shift is significantly upward, but also significantly smaller than the 152 m one expects from warming in the region. To estimate the expected shift in elevation we first determined the magnitude of warming in the locality from historical data. Then we used the temperature lapse rate to infer the required shift in altitude to compensate for warming. The range shifts in elevation were similar across different trophic guilds. Endothermy may provide birds with some flexibility to temperature changes and allow them to move less than expected. Instead of being directly dependent on temperature, birds may be responding to gradual changes in the nature of the habitat or availability of food resources, and presence of competitors. If so, this has important implications for estimates of mountaintop extinctions from climate change.

Military Implications of Global Warming.

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-05-20

U.S. environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current U.S. Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate...for military involvement to reduce global warming . Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the U.S. military. As the United

Sheet metal stamping die design for warm forming

DOEpatents

Ghosh, Amit K.

2003-04-22

In metal stamping dies, by taking advantage of improved material flow by selectively warming the die, flat sections of the die can contribute to the flow of material throughout the workpiece. Local surface heating can be accomplished by placing a heating block in the die. Distribution of heating at the flat lower train central regions outside of the bend region allows a softer flow at a lower stress to enable material flow into the thinner, higher strain areas at the bend/s. The heating block is inserted into the die and is powered by a power supply.

The world at 1.5°C: Understanding its regional dimensions and driving processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Wartenburger, R.; Vogel, M.; Hirsch, A.; Guillod, B.; Donat, M.; Pitman, A. J.; Davin, E.; Greve, P.; Hirschi, M.

2017-12-01

This presentation reviews the available evidence regarding projected regional changes in climate extremes at 1.5°C vs higher levels of warming based on recent analyses (Seneviratne et al. 2016; Wartenburger et al., submitted; Greve et al., submitted). In several regions, significant differences in the occurrence of climate extremes can be identified already for half a degree of warming when assessing changes at 1.5°C vs 2°C global warming. An important feature is the much stronger warming of hot extremes in several continental regions compared to the global mean warming, which implies that temperature extremes can warm regionally by much more than 1.5°C, even if global temperature warming is stabilized at this level (e.g. up to 6°C for certain models in the Arctic). This feature is due to a combination of feedbacks and internal climate variability. We highlight in particular the importance of land-climate feedbacks for projected changes in hot extremes in mid-latitude regions (Vogel et al. 2017). Because of the strong effects of land processes on regional changes in temperature extremes, changes in land surface properties, including land use changes, are found to be particularly important for projections in low-emissions scenarios (Hirsch et al. 2017; Guillod et al., submitted). References: Greve, P., et al.: Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change. Submitted. Guillod, B.P., et al.: Land use in low climate warming targets critical for hot extreme projections. Submitted. Hirsch, A.L., et al., 2017: Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 2269-2288, doi:10.1002/2016JD026125. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., et al., 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil

Multicompartment Liquid-Cooling/Warming Protective Garments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koscheyev, Victor S.; Leon, Gloria R.; Dancisak, Michael J.

2005-01-01

Shortened, multicompartment liquid-cooling / warming garments (LCWGs) for protecting astronauts, firefighters, and others at risk of exposure to extremes of temperature are undergoing development. Unlike prior liquid-circulation thermal-protection suits that provide either cooling or warming but not both, an LCWG as envisioned would provide cooling at some body locations and/or heating at other locations, as needed: For example, sometimes there is a need to cool the body core and to heat the extremities simultaneously. An LCWG garment of the type to be developed is said to be shortened because the liquid-cooling and - heating zones would not cover the whole body and, instead, would cover reduced areas selected for maximum heating and cooling effectiveness. Physiological research is under way to provide a rational basis for selection of the liquid-cooling and -heating areas. In addition to enabling better (relative to prior liquid-circulation garments) balancing of heat among different body regions, the use of selective heating and cooling in zones would contribute to a reduction in the amount of energy needed to operate a thermal-protection suit.

North Atlantic Surface Winds Examined as the Source of Warm Advection into Europe in Winter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.; Angell, J. K.; Ardizzone, J.; Atlas, Robert; Schubert, S.; Starr, D.; Wu, M.-L.

2002-01-01

When from the southwest, North Atlantic ocean surface winds are known to bring warm and moist airmasses into central Europe in winter. By tracing backward trajectories from western Europe, we establish that these airmasses originate in the southwestern North Atlantic, in the very warm regions of the Gulf Stream. Over the eastern North Atlantic, Lt the gateway to Europe, the ocean-surface winds changed directions in the second half of the XXth century, those from the northwest and from the southeast becoming so infrequent, that the direction from the southwest became even more dominant. For the January-to-March period, the strength of south-westerlies in this region, as well as in the source region, shows in the years 1948-1995 a significant increase, above 0.2 m/sec/ decade. Based on the sensitivity of the surface temperature in Europe, slightly more than 1 C for a 1m/sec increase in the southwesterly wind, found in the previous studies, the trend in the warm advection accounts for a large part of the warming in Europe established for this period in several reports. However, for the most recent years, 1996-2001, the positive trend in the southwesterly advection appears to be is broken, which is consistent with unseasonally cold events reported in Europe in those winters. This study had, some bearing on evaluating the respective roles of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Greenhouse Gas Global warming, GGG, in the strong winter warming observed for about half a century over the northern-latitude continents. Changes in the ocean-surface temperatures induced by GGG may have produced the dominant southwesterly direction of the North Atlantic winds. However, this implies a monotonically (apart from inherent interannual variability) increasing advection, and if the break in the trend which we observe after 1995 persists, this mechanism is counter-indicated. The 1948-1995 trend in the south-westerlies could then be considered to a large degree attributable to the

Modeling the Impacts of Long-Term Warming Trends on Gross Primary Productivity Across North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekonnen, Z. A.; Grant, R. F.

2014-12-01

There is evidence of warming over recent decades in most regions of North America (NA) that affects ecosystem productivity and the past decade has been the warmest since instrumental records of global surface temperatures began. In this study, we examined the spatial and temporal variability and trends of warming across NA using climate data from the North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) from 1979 to 2010 with a 3-hourly time-step and 0.250 x 0.250 spatial resolution as part of the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). A comprehensive mathematical process model, ecosys was used to simulate impacts of this variability in warming on gross primary productivity (GPP). In a test of model results, annual GPP modeled for pixels which corresponded to the locations of 25 eddy covariance towers correlated well (R2=0.76) with annual GPP derived from the flux towers in 2005. At the continental scale long-term (2000 - 2010) annual average modeled GPP for NA correlated well (geographically weighed regression R2 = 0.8) with MODIS GPP, demonstrating close similarities in spatial patterns. Results from the NARR indicated that most areas of NA, particularly high latitude regions, have experienced warming but changes in precipitation vary spatially over the last three decades. GPP modeled in most areas with lower mean annual air temperature (Ta), such as those in boreal climate zones, increased due to early spring and late autumn warming observed in NARR. However modeled GPP declined in most southwestern regions of NA, due to water stress from rising Ta and declining precipitation. Overall, GPP modeled across NA had a positive trend of +0.025 P g C yr-1 with a range of -1.16 to 0.87 P g C yr-1 from the long-term mean. Interannual variability of GPP was the greatest in southwest of US and part of the Great Plains, which could be as a result of frequent El Niño-Southern Oscillation' (ENSO) events that led to major droughts.

Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

DOE PAGES

Sejas, Sergio A.; Albert, Oriene S.; Cai, Ming; ...

2014-12-02

One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heatmore » flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Furthermore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea.« less

Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sejas, Sergio A.; Albert, Oriene S.; Cai, Ming

One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heatmore » flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Furthermore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea.« less

Medieval Warm Period Archives Preserved in Limpet Shells (Patella Vulgata) From Viking Deposits, United Kingdom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mobilia, M.; Surge, D.

2008-12-01

The Medieval Warm Period (700-1100 YBP) represents a recent period of warm climate, and as such provides a powerful comparison to today's continuing warming trend. However, the spatial and temporal variability inherent in the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) makes it difficult to differentiate between global climate trends and regional variability. The continued study of this period will allow for the better understanding of temperature variability, both regional and global, during this climate interval. Our study is located in the Orkney Islands, Scotland, which is a critical area to understand climate dynamics. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Gulf Stream heavily influence climate in this region, and the study of climate intervals during the MWP will improve our understanding of the behavior of these climate mechanisms during this interval. Furthermore, the vast majority of the climate archive has been derived from either deep marine or arctic environments. Studying a coastal environment will offer valuable insight into the behavior of maritime climate during the MWP. Estimated seasonal sea surface temperature data were derived through isotopic analysis of limpet shells (Patella vulgata). Analysis of modern shells confirms that growth temperature tracks seasonal variation in ambient water temperature. Preliminary data from MWP shells record a seasonal temperature range comparable to that observed in the modern temperature data. We will extend the range of temperature data from the 10th through 14th centuries to advance our knowledge of seasonal temperature variability during the late Holocene.

Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau (China) during 1960-2013 under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Wenyi; Mu, Xingmin; Song, Xiaoyan; Wu, Dan; Cheng, Aifang; Qiu, Bing

2016-02-01

In recent decades, extreme climatic events have been a major issue worldwide. Regional assessments on various climates and geographic regions are needed for understanding uncertainties in extreme events' responses to global warming. The objective of this study was to assess the annual and decadal trends in 12 extreme temperature and 10 extreme precipitation indices in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration over the Loess Plateau during 1960-2013. The results indicated that the regionally averaged trends in temperature extremes were consistent with global warming. The occurrence of warm extremes, including summer days (SU), tropical nights (TR), warm days (TX90), and nights (TN90) and a warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), increased by 2.76 (P < 0.01), 1.24 (P < 0.01), 2.60 (P = 0.0003), 3.41 (P < 0.01), and 0.68 (P = 0.0041) days/decade during the period of 1960-2013, particularly, sharp increases in these indices occurred in 1985-2000. Over the same period, the occurrence of cold extremes, including frost days (FD), ice days (ID), cold days (TX10) and nights (TN10), and a cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) exhibited decreases of - 3.22 (P < 0.01), - 2.21 (P = 0.0028), - 2.71 (P = 0.0028), - 4.31 (P < 0.01), and - 0.69 (P = 0.0951) days/decade, respectively. Moreover, extreme warm events in most regions tended to increase while cold indices tended to decrease in the Loess Plateau, but the trend magnitudes of cold extremes were greater than those of warm extremes. The growing season (GSL) in the Loess Plateau was lengthened at a rate of 3.16 days/decade (P < 0.01). Diurnal temperature range (DTR) declined at a rate of - 0.06 °C /decade (P = 0.0931). Regarding the precipitation indices, the annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) showed no obvious trends (P = 0.7828). The regionally averaged daily rainfall intensity (SDII) exhibited significant decreases (- 0.14 mm/day/decade, P = 0.0158), whereas consecutive dry days (CDD) significantly increased (1.96 days

Climate Impacts in Europe Under +1.5°C Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacob, Daniela; Kotova, Lola; Teichmann, Claas; Sobolowski, Stefan P.; Vautard, Robert; Donnelly, Chantal; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Grillakis, Manolis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Damm, Andrea; Sakalli, Abdulla; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.

2018-02-01

The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims not only at avoiding +2°C warming (and even limit the temperature increase further to +1.5°C), but also sets long-term goals to guide mitigation. Therefore, the best available science is required to inform policymakers on the importance of and the adaptation needs in a +1.5°C warmer world. Seven research institutes from Europe and Turkey integrated their competencies to provide a cross-sectoral assessment of the potential impacts at a pan-European scale. The initial findings of this initiative are presented and key messages communicated. The approach is to select periods based on global warming thresholds rather than the more typical approach of selecting time periods (e.g., end of century). The results indicate that the world is likely to pass the +1.5°C threshold in the coming decades. Cross-sectoral dimensions are taken into account to show the impacts of global warming that occur in parallel in more than one sector. Also, impacts differ across sectors and regions. Alongside the negative impacts for certain sectors and regions, some positive impacts are projected. Summer tourism in parts of Western Europe may be favored by climate change; electricity demand decreases outweigh increases over most of Europe and catchment yields in hydropower regions will increase. However, such positive findings should be interpreted carefully as we do not take into account exogenous factors that can and will influence Europe such as migration patterns, food production, and economic and political instability.

Commentary: Urgent need for large-scale warming manipulation experiments in tropical forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavaleri, M. A.; Wood, T. E.; Reed, S.

2013-12-01

Tropical forests represent the largest fluxes of carbon into and out of the atmosphere of any terrestrial ecosystem type on earth. Despite their clear biogeochemical importance, responses of tropical forests to global warming are more uncertain than for any other biome. This uncertainty stems primarily from a lack of mechanistic data, in part because warming manipulation field experiments have been located almost exclusively in higher latitude systems. As a result of the large fluxes, lack of data, and high uncertainty, recent studies have highlighted the tropics as a 'high priority region' for future climate change research. We argue that warming manipulation experiments are urgently needed in tropical forests that are: 1) single-factor, 2) large-scale, and 3) long-term. The emergence of a novel heat regime is predicted for the tropics within the next two decades, and tropical forest trees may be more susceptible to warming than previously thought. Over a decade of Free Air CO2 Enrichment experiments have shown that single-factor studies that integrate above- and belowground function can be the most informative and efficient means of informing models, which can then be used to determine interactive effects of multiple factors. Warming both above- and below-ground parts of an ecosystem would be fundamental to the understanding of whole-ecosystem and net carbon responses because of the multiple feedbacks between tree canopy, root, and soil function. Finally, evidence from high-latitude warming experiments highlight the importance of long-term studies by suggesting that key processes related to carbon cycling, like soil respiration, could acclimate with extended warming. Despite the fact that there has never been a long-term ecosystem-level warming experiment in any forest, the technology is available, and momentum is gathering. In order to study the effects of warming on tropical forests, which contribute disproportionately to global carbon balance, full

Warming up, turning sour, losing breath: ocean biogeochemistry under global change.

PubMed

Gruber, Nicolas

2011-05-28

In the coming decades and centuries, the ocean's biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems will become increasingly stressed by at least three independent factors. Rising temperatures, ocean acidification and ocean deoxygenation will cause substantial changes in the physical, chemical and biological environment, which will then affect the ocean's biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems in ways that we are only beginning to fathom. Ocean warming will not only affect organisms and biogeochemical cycles directly, but will also increase upper ocean stratification. The changes in the ocean's carbonate chemistry induced by the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO(2)) (i.e. ocean acidification) will probably affect many organisms and processes, although in ways that are currently not well understood. Ocean deoxygenation, i.e. the loss of dissolved oxygen (O(2)) from the ocean, is bound to occur in a warming and more stratified ocean, causing stress to macro-organisms that critically depend on sufficient levels of oxygen. These three stressors-warming, acidification and deoxygenation-will tend to operate globally, although with distinct regional differences. The impacts of ocean acidification tend to be strongest in the high latitudes, whereas the low-oxygen regions of the low latitudes are most vulnerable to ocean deoxygenation. Specific regions, such as the eastern boundary upwelling systems, will be strongly affected by all three stressors, making them potential hotspots for change. Of additional concern are synergistic effects, such as ocean acidification-induced changes in the type and magnitude of the organic matter exported to the ocean's interior, which then might cause substantial changes in the oxygen concentration there. Ocean warming, acidification and deoxygenation are essentially irreversible on centennial time scales, i.e. once these changes have occurred, it will take centuries for the ocean to recover. With the emission of CO(2) being the primary driver

A new mechanism for warm-season precipitation response to global warming based on convection-permitting simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Aiguo; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Prein, Andreas F.

2017-08-01

Climate models project increasing precipitation intensity but decreasing frequency as greenhouse gases increase. However, the exact mechanism for the frequency decrease remains unclear. Here we investigate this by analyzing hourly data from regional climate change simulations with 4 km grid spacing covering most of North America using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model was forced with present and future boundary conditions, with the latter being derived by adding the CMIP5 19-model ensemble mean changes to the ERA-interim reanalysis. The model reproduces well the observed seasonal and spatial variations in precipitation frequency and histograms, and the dry interval between rain events over the contiguous US. Results show that overall precipitation frequency indeed decreases during the warm season mainly due to fewer light-moderate precipitation (0.1 < P ≤ 2.0 mm/h) events, while heavy (2 < P ≤ 10 mm/h) to very heavy precipitation (P > 10 mm/h) events increase. Dry spells become longer and more frequent, together with a reduction in time-mean relative humidity (RH) in the lower troposphere during the warm season. The increased dry hours and decreased RH lead to a reduction in overall precipitation frequency and also for light-moderate precipitation events, while water vapor-induced increases in precipitation intensity and the positive latent heating feedback in intense storms may be responsible for the large increase in intense precipitation. The size of intense storms increases while their number decreases in the future climate, which helps explain the increase in local frequency of heavy precipitation. The results generally support a new hypothesis for future warm-season precipitation: each rainstorm removes ≥7% more moisture from the air per 1 K local warming, and surface evaporation and moisture advection take slightly longer than currently to replenish the depleted moisture before the next storm forms, leading to longer dry spells and

Magnitude and pattern of Arctic warming governed by the seasonality of radiative forcing.

PubMed

Bintanja, R; Krikken, F

2016-12-02

Observed and projected climate warming is strongest in the Arctic regions, peaking in autumn/winter. Attempts to explain this feature have focused primarily on identifying the associated climate feedbacks, particularly the ice-albedo and lapse-rate feedbacks. Here we use a state-of-the-art global climate model in idealized seasonal forcing simulations to show that Arctic warming (especially in winter) and sea ice decline are particularly sensitive to radiative forcing in spring, during which the energy is effectively 'absorbed' by the ocean (through sea ice melt and ocean warming, amplified by the ice-albedo feedback) and consequently released to the lower atmosphere in autumn and winter, mainly along the sea ice periphery. In contrast, winter radiative forcing causes a more uniform response centered over the Arctic Ocean. This finding suggests that intermodel differences in simulated Arctic (winter) warming can to a considerable degree be attributed to model uncertainties in Arctic radiative fluxes, which peak in summer.

Responses of spring phenology to climate warming reduced over the past decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Yongshuo. H.; Zhao, hongfang; piao, Shilong; Peaucelle, Marc; Peng, Shushi; Zhou, Guiyun; Ciais, Philippe; Huang, Mengtian; Menzel, Annette; Penuelas, Josep; Song, Yang; Vitasse, Yann; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Janssens, Ivan. A.

2016-04-01

The phenology of spring leaf unfolding is one of the key indicators of the climate change on ecosystems, and influences regional and hemispheric-scale carbon balances and plant-animal interactions. Changes in the phenology of spring leaf unfolding can also exert biophysical feedbacks on climate by modifying the surface albedo and energy budget. Recent studies have reported significant advances in spring phenology as a result of warming in most northern hemisphere regions. Climate warming is projected to further increase, but the future evolution of the phenology of spring leaf unfolding remains uncertain - in view of the imperfect understanding of how the underlying mechanisms respond to environmental stimuli. In addition, the relative contributions of each environmental stimulus, which together define the apparent temperature sensitivity of the phenology of spring leaf unfolding (advances in days per degree Celsius warming, ST), may also change over time. An improved characterization of the variation in phenological responses to spring temperature is thus valuable, provided that it addresses temporal and spatial scales relevant for regional projections. Using long-term in situ observations of leaf unfolding for seven dominant European tree species at 1,245 sites, we show here that the apparent response of leaf unfolding to climate warming (ST, expressed in days advance per ° C) has significantly decreased from 1980 to 2013 in all monitored tree species. Averaged across all species and sites, ST decreased by 40% from 4.0 ± 1.8 days ° C-1 during 1980-1994 to 2.3 ± 1.6 days ° C-1 during 1999-2013. The declining ST was also simulated by chilling-based phenology models, albeit with a weaker decline (24%-30%) than observed in situ. The reduction in ST is likely to be partly attributable to reduced chilling. Nonetheless, other mechanisms may also play a role, such as 'photoperiod limitation' mechanisms that may become ultimately limiting when leaf unfolding dates

Diagnosing Warm Season Precipitation Over the GCIP Region from a GCM and Reanalysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert; Marshall, Susan; Roads, John; Robertson, Franklin R.

2000-01-01

A 45 year simulation using a global general circulation model (GCM), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model v.3 (CCM3), forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SST), and 39 years of global National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses were analyzed to determine Mississippi River basin warm season (May, June, July or MJJ) wet and dry year composites in the water and energy budgets. Years that have increased MJJ soil moisture over the GEWEX (Global Water and Energy Experiment) Continental Interior Project (GCIP) region also have high precipitation, lower surface temperature, decreased Bowen ratio, and reduced 500 hPa geopotential height (essentially reduced MJJ ridging). The reverse is true for years that have reduced MJJ soil moisture. Wet years are also accompanied by a general increase in moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico into the central U.S. There is some indication (though weaker) that soil moisture may then affect precipitation and other quantities and be affected in turn by 500 hPa geopotential heights. The correlations are somewhat low, however, demonstrating the difficulty in providing definitive physical links between the remote and local effects. Analysis of two individual years with an extreme wet event (1993) and an extreme dry event (1988) yields the same general relationships as with the wet and dry composites. The composites from this study are currently serving as the basis for a series of experiments aimed at determining the predictability of the land surface and remote SST on the Mississippi River basin and other large-scale river basins.

Short-term herbivory has long-term consequences in warmed and ambient high Arctic tundra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Little, Chelsea J.; Cutting, Helen; Alatalo, Juha; Cooper, Elisabeth

2017-02-01

Climate change is occurring across the world, with effects varying by ecosystem and region but already occurring quickly in high-latitude and high-altitude regions. Biotic interactions are important in determining ecosystem response to such changes, but few studies have been long-term in nature, especially in the High Arctic. Mesic tundra plots on Svalbard, Norway, were subjected to grazing at two different intensities by captive Barnacle geese from 2003-2005, in a factorial design with warming by Open Top Chambers. Warming manipulations were continued through 2014, when we measured vegetation structure and composition as well as growth and reproduction of three dominant species in the mesic meadow. Significantly more dead vascular plant material was found in warmed compared to ambient plots, regardless of grazing history, but in contrast to many short-term experiments no difference in the amount of living material was found. This has strong implications for nutrient and carbon cycling and could feed back into community productivity. Dominant species showed increased flowering in warmed plots, especially in those plots where grazing had been applied. However, this added sexual reproduction did not translate to substantial shifts in vegetative cover. Forbs and rushes increased slightly in warmed plots regardless of grazing, while the dominant shrub, Salix polaris, generally declined with effects dependent on grazing, and the evergreen shrub Dryas octopetala declined with previous intensive grazing. There were no treatment effects on community diversity or evenness. Thus despite no changes in total live abundance, a typical short-term response to environmental conditions, we found pronounced changes in dead biomass indicating that tundra ecosystem processes respond to medium- to long-term changes in conditions caused by 12 seasons of summer warming. We suggest that while high arctic tundra plant communities are fairly resistant to current levels of climate warming

The effects of 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming on Africa in the CORDEX ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Chris; Dosio, Alessandro; Kjellström, Erik; Chen, Youmin; Hänsler, Andreas; Kupiainen, Marco; Laprise, René; Mariotti, Laura; Fox Maule, Cathrine; van Meijgaard, Erik; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen; Scinocca, John F.; Somot, Samuel

2018-06-01

There is a general lack of information about the potential effects of 1.5, 2 or more degrees of global warming on the regional climates within Africa, and most studies that address this use data from coarse resolution global models. Using a large ensemble of CORDEX Africa simulations, we present a pan-African overview of the effects of 1.5 and 2 °C global warming levels (GWLs) on the African climate. The CORDEX simulations, consistent with their driving global models, show a robust regional warming exceeding the mean global one over most of Africa. The highest increase in annual mean temperature is found over the subtropics and the smallest one over many coastal regions. Projected changes in annual mean precipitation have a tendency to wetter conditions in some parts of Africa (e.g. central/eastern Sahel and eastern Africa) at both GWLs, but models’ agreement on the sign of change is low. In contrast to mean precipitation, there is a consistent increase in daily precipitation intensity of wet days over a large fraction of tropical Africa emerging already at 1.5 °C GWL and strengthening at 2 °C. A consistent difference between 2 °C and 1.5 °C warmings is also found for projected changes in annual mean temperature and daily precipitation intensity. Our study indicates that a 0.5 °C further warming (from 1.5 °C–2 °C) can indeed produce a robust change in some aspects of the African climate and its extremes.

Thirty-Three Years of Ocean Benthic Warming Along the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf and Slope: Patterns, Drivers, and Ecological Consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavanaugh, Maria T.; Rheuban, Jennie E.; Luis, Kelly M. A.; Doney, Scott C.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf is experiencing rapid warming, with potentially profound consequences to marine ecosystems. While satellites document multiple scales of spatial and temporal variability on the surface, our understanding of the status, trends, and drivers of the benthic environmental change remains limited. We interpolated sparse benthic temperature data along the New England Shelf and upper Slope using a seasonally dynamic, regionally specific multiple linear regression model that merged in situ and remote sensing data. The statistical model predicted nearly 90% of the variability of the data, resulting in a synoptic time series spanning over three decades from 1982 to 2014. Benthic temperatures increased throughout the domain, including in the Gulf of Maine. Rates of benthic warming ranged from 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade, with fastest rates occurring in shallow, nearshore regions and on Georges Bank, the latter exceeding rates observed in the surface. Rates of benthic warming were up to 1.6 times faster in winter than the rest of the year in many regions, with important implications for disease occurrence and energetics of overwintering species. Drivers of warming varied over the domain. In southern New England and the mid-Atlantic shallow Shelf regions, benthic warming was tightly coupled to changes in SST, whereas both regional and basin-scale changes in ocean circulation affect temperatures in the Gulf of Maine, the Continental Shelf, and Georges Banks. These results highlight data gaps, the current feasibility of prediction from remotely sensed variables, and the need for improved understanding on how climate may affect seasonally specific ecological processes.

Thirty-Three Years of Ocean Benthic Warming Along the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf and Slope: Patterns, Drivers, and Ecological Consequences.

PubMed

Kavanaugh, Maria T; Rheuban, Jennie E; Luis, Kelly M A; Doney, Scott C

2017-12-01

The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf is experiencing rapid warming, with potentially profound consequences to marine ecosystems. While satellites document multiple scales of spatial and temporal variability on the surface, our understanding of the status, trends, and drivers of the benthic environmental change remains limited. We interpolated sparse benthic temperature data along the New England Shelf and upper Slope using a seasonally dynamic, regionally specific multiple linear regression model that merged in situ and remote sensing data. The statistical model predicted nearly 90% of the variability of the data, resulting in a synoptic time series spanning over three decades from 1982 to 2014. Benthic temperatures increased throughout the domain, including in the Gulf of Maine. Rates of benthic warming ranged from 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade, with fastest rates occurring in shallow, nearshore regions and on Georges Bank, the latter exceeding rates observed in the surface. Rates of benthic warming were up to 1.6 times faster in winter than the rest of the year in many regions, with important implications for disease occurrence and energetics of overwintering species. Drivers of warming varied over the domain. In southern New England and the mid-Atlantic shallow Shelf regions, benthic warming was tightly coupled to changes in SST, whereas both regional and basin-scale changes in ocean circulation affect temperatures in the Gulf of Maine, the Continental Shelf, and Georges Banks. These results highlight data gaps, the current feasibility of prediction from remotely sensed variables, and the need for improved understanding on how climate may affect seasonally specific ecological processes.

A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

Role of CO2-forced Antarctic shelf freshening on local shelf warming in an eddying global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goddard, P.; Dufour, C.; Yin, J.; Griffies, S. M.; Winton, M.

2017-12-01

Ocean warming near the Antarctic ice shelves has critical implications for future ice sheet mass loss and global sea level rise. A global climate model (GFDL CM2.6) with an eddying ocean is used to quantify and better understand the mechanisms contributing to ocean warming on the Antarctic continental shelf in an idealized 2xCO2 experiment. The results indicate that the simulated shelf region warming varies in magnitude at different locations. Relatively large warm anomalies occur both in the upper 100 m and at depth, which are controlled by different mechanisms. Here, we focus on the deep shelf warming and its relationship to shelf freshening. Under CO2-forcing, enhanced runoff from Antarctica, more regional precipitation, and reduction of sea ice contribute to the shelf freshening. The freshening increases the lateral density gradient of the Antarctic Slope Front, which can limit along-isopycnal onshore transport of heat from the Circumpolar Deep Water across the shelf break. Thus, the magnitude and location of the freshening anomalies govern the magnitude and location of onshore heat transport and deep warm anomalies. Additionally, the freshening increases vertical stratification on the shelf. The enhanced stratification reduces vertical mixing of heat associated with diffusion and gravitational instabilities, further contributing to the build-up of temperature anomalies at depth. Freshening is a crucial driver of the magnitude and location of the warming; however, other drivers influence the warming such as CO2-forced weakening of the easterly wind stress and associated shoaling of isotherms. Understanding the relative role of freshening in the inhomogeneous ocean warming of the Antarctic continental shelf would lead to better projections of future ice sheet mass loss, especially near the most vulnerable calving fronts.

On the influence of simulated SST warming on rainfall projections in the Indo-Pacific domain: an AGCM study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Huqiang; Zhao, Y.; Moise, A.; Ye, H.; Colman, R.; Roff, G.; Zhao, M.

2018-02-01

Significant uncertainty exists in regional climate change projections, particularly for rainfall and other hydro-climate variables. In this study, we conduct a series of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments with different future sea surface temperature (SST) warming simulated by a range of coupled climate models. They allow us to assess the extent to which uncertainty from current coupled climate model rainfall projections can be attributed to their simulated SST warming. Nine CMIP5 model-simulated global SST warming anomalies have been super-imposed onto the current SSTs simulated by the Australian climate model ACCESS1.3. The ACCESS1.3 SST-forced experiments closely reproduce rainfall means and interannual variations as in its own fully coupled experiments. Although different global SST warming intensities explain well the inter-model difference in global mean precipitation changes, at regional scales the SST influence vary significantly. SST warming explains about 20-25% of the patterns of precipitation changes in each of the four/five models in its rainfall projections over the oceans in the Indo-Pacific domain, but there are also a couple of models in which different SST warming explains little of their precipitation pattern changes. The influence is weaker again for rainfall changes over land. Roughly similar levels of contribution can be attributed to different atmospheric responses to SST warming in these models. The weak SST influence in our study could be due to the experimental setup applied: superimposing different SST warming anomalies onto the same SSTs simulated for current climate by ACCESS1.3 rather than directly using model-simulated past and future SSTs. Similar modelling and analysis from other modelling groups with more carefully designed experiments are needed to tease out uncertainties caused by different SST warming patterns, different SST mean biases and different model physical/dynamical responses to the same underlying

Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year.

PubMed

Steig, Eric J; Schneider, David P; Rutherford, Scott D; Mann, Michael E; Comiso, Josefino C; Shindell, Drew T

2009-01-22

Assessments of Antarctic temperature change have emphasized the contrast between strong warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and slight cooling of the Antarctic continental interior in recent decades. This pattern of temperature change has been attributed to the increased strength of the circumpolar westerlies, largely in response to changes in stratospheric ozone. This picture, however, is substantially incomplete owing to the sparseness and short duration of the observations. Here we show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. West Antarctic warming exceeds 0.1 degrees C per decade over the past 50 years, and is strongest in winter and spring. Although this is partly offset by autumn cooling in East Antarctica, the continent-wide average near-surface temperature trend is positive. Simulations using a general circulation model reproduce the essential features of the spatial pattern and the long-term trend, and we suggest that neither can be attributed directly to increases in the strength of the westerlies. Instead, regional changes in atmospheric circulation and associated changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice are required to explain the enhanced warming in West Antarctica.

Recent warming leads to a rapid borealization of fish communities in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fossheim, Maria; Primicerio, Raul; Johannesen, Edda; Ingvaldsen, Randi B.; Aschan, Michaela M.; Dolgov, Andrey V.

2015-07-01

Arctic marine ecosystems are warming twice as fast as the global average. As a consequence of warming, many incoming species experience increasing abundances and expanding distribution ranges in the Arctic. The Arctic is expected to have the largest species turnover with regard to invading and locally extinct species, with a modelled invasion intensity of five times the global average. Studies in this region might therefore give valuable insights into community-wide shifts of species driven by climate warming. We found that the recent warming in the Barents Sea has led to a change in spatial distribution of fish communities, with boreal communities expanding northwards at a pace reflecting the local climate velocities. Increased abundance and distribution areas of large, migratory fish predators explain the observed community-wide distributional shifts. These shifts change the ecological interactions experienced by Arctic fish species. The Arctic shelf fish community retracted northwards to deeper areas bordering the deep polar basin. Depth might limit further retraction of some of the fish species in the Arctic shelf community. We conclude that climate warming is inducing structural change over large spatial scales at high latitudes, leading to a borealization of fish communities in the Arctic.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-04-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming.

PubMed

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-04-20

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

Warm-up and performance in competitive swimming.

PubMed

Neiva, Henrique P; Marques, Mário C; Barbosa, Tiago M; Izquierdo, Mikel; Marinho, Daniel A

2014-03-01

Warm-up before physical activity is commonly accepted to be fundamental, and any priming practices are usually thought to optimize performance. However, specifically in swimming, studies on the effects of warm-up are scarce, which may be due to the swimming pool environment, which has a high temperature and humidity, and to the complexity of warm-up procedures. The purpose of this study is to review and summarize the different studies on how warming up affects swimming performance, and to develop recommendations for improving the efficiency of warm-up before competition. Most of the main proposed effects of warm-up, such as elevated core and muscular temperatures, increased blood flow and oxygen delivery to muscle cells and higher efficiency of muscle contractions, support the hypothesis that warm-up enhances performance. However, while many researchers have reported improvements in performance after warm-up, others have found no benefits to warm-up. This lack of consensus emphasizes the need to evaluate the real effects of warm-up and optimize its design. Little is known about the effectiveness of warm-up in competitive swimming, and the variety of warm-up methods and swimming events studied makes it difficult to compare the published conclusions about the role of warm-up in swimming. Recent findings have shown that warm-up has a positive effect on the swimmer's performance, especially for distances greater than 200 m. We recommend that swimmers warm-up for a relatively moderate distance (between 1,000 and 1,500 m) with a proper intensity (a brief approach to race pace velocity) and recovery time sufficient to prevent the early onset of fatigue and to allow the restoration of energy reserves (8-20 min).

Coupled greenhouse warming and deep-sea acidification in the middle Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohaty, Steven M.; Zachos, James C.; Florindo, Fabio; Delaney, Margaret L.

2009-06-01

The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) is an enigmatic warming event that represents an abrupt reversal in long-term cooling through the Eocene. In order to further assess the timing and nature of this event, we have assembled stable isotope and calcium carbonate concentration records from multiple Deep Sea Drilling Project and Ocean Drilling Program sites for the time interval between ˜43 and 38 Ma. Revised stratigraphy at several sites and compilation of δ18O records place peak warming during the MECO event at 40.0 Ma (Chron C18n.2n). The identification of the δ18O excursion at sites in different geographic regions indicates that the climatic effects of this event were globally extensive. The total duration of the MECO event is estimated at ˜500 ka, with peak warming lasting <100 ka. Assuming minimal glaciation in the late middle Eocene, ˜4°-6°C total warming of both surface and deep waters is estimated during the MECO at the study sites. The interval of peak warming at ˜40.0 Ma also coincided with a worldwide decline in carbonate accumulation at sites below 3000 m depth, reflecting a temporary shoaling of the calcite compensation depth. The synchroneity of deep-water acidification and globally extensive warming makes a persuasive argument that the MECO event was linked to a transient increase in atmospheric pCO2. The results of this study confirm previous reports of significant climatic instability during the middle Eocene. Furthermore, the direct link between warming and changes in the carbonate chemistry of the deep ocean provides strong evidence that changes in greenhouse gas concentrations exerted a primary control on short-term climate variability during this critical period of Eocene climate evolution.

Total electron content disturbances during minor sudden stratospheric warming, over the Brazilian region: A case study during January 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, F.; Fagundes, P. R.; Venkatesh, K.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Pillat, V. G.

2017-02-01

The effects of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) on ionosphere have been investigated by several scientists, using different observational techniques and model simulations. However, the minor SSW event during January 2012 is one of those that are less studied. Influences of several types of possible drivers—minor SSW event, changing solar flux, moderate geomagnetic storm on 22-25 January, and one of the largest solar proton events on 23-30 January—make it a challenging period to interpret. In the present study, the GPS-total electron content (TEC) measurements from a network of 72 receivers over the Brazilian region are considered. This network of 72 GPS-TEC locations lies between 5°N and 30°S (35°) latitudes and 35°W and 65°W (30°) longitudes. Further, two chains of GPS receivers are used to study the response of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) in the Brazilian eastern and western sectors, as well as its day-to-day variability before and during the SSW-2012. It was noted that the TEC is depleted to the order of 30% all over the Brazilian region, from equator to beyond the EIA regions and from east to west sectors. It is also noticed that the EIA strengths at the east and west sectors were weakened during the SSW-2012. However, the Brazilian eastern sector was found to be more disturbed compared to the western sector during this SSW-2012 event.

Divergent responses to spring and winter warming drive community level flowering trends

PubMed Central

Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Parmesan, Camille

2012-01-01

Analyses of datasets throughout the temperate midlatitude regions show a widespread tendency for species to advance their springtime phenology, consistent with warming trends over the past 20–50 y. Within these general trends toward earlier spring, however, are species that either have insignificant trends or have delayed their timing. Various explanations have been offered to explain this apparent nonresponsiveness to warming, including the influence of other abiotic cues (e.g., photoperiod) or reductions in fall/winter chilling (vernalization). Few studies, however, have explicitly attributed the historical trends of nonresponding species to any specific factor. Here, we analyzed long-term data on phenology and seasonal temperatures from 490 species on two continents and demonstrate that (i) apparent nonresponders are indeed responding to warming, but their responses to fall/winter and spring warming are opposite in sign and of similar magnitude; (ii) observed trends in first flowering date depend strongly on the magnitude of a given species’ response to fall/winter vs. spring warming; and (iii) inclusion of fall/winter temperature cues strongly improves hindcast model predictions of long-term flowering trends compared with models with spring warming only. With a few notable exceptions, climate change research has focused on the overall mean trend toward phenological advance, minimizing discussion of apparently nonresponding species. Our results illuminate an understudied source of complexity in wild species responses and support the need for models incorporating diverse environmental cues to improve predictability of community level responses to anthropogenic climate change. PMID:22615406

Long-term experimental warming alters community composition of ascomycetes in Alaskan moist and dry arctic tundra.

PubMed

Semenova, Tatiana A; Morgado, Luis N; Welker, Jeffrey M; Walker, Marilyn D; Smets, Erik; Geml, József

2015-01-01

Arctic tundra regions have been responding to global warming with visible changes in plant community composition, including expansion of shrubs and declines in lichens and bryophytes. Even though it is well known that the majority of arctic plants are associated with their symbiotic fungi, how fungal community composition will be different with climate warming remains largely unknown. In this study, we addressed the effects of long-term (18 years) experimental warming on the community composition and taxonomic richness of soil ascomycetes in dry and moist tundra types. Using deep Ion Torrent sequencing, we quantified how OTU assemblage and richness of different orders of Ascomycota changed in response to summer warming. Experimental warming significantly altered ascomycete communities with stronger responses observed in the moist tundra compared with dry tundra. The proportion of several lichenized and moss-associated fungi decreased with warming, while the proportion of several plant and insect pathogens and saprotrophic species was higher in the warming treatment. The observed alterations in both taxonomic and ecological groups of ascomycetes are discussed in relation to previously reported warming-induced shifts in arctic plant communities, including decline in lichens and bryophytes and increase in coverage and biomass of shrubs. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Effect of Extratropical Warming Amplification on the Future Tropical Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshimori, M.; Hamano, Y.; Abe-Ouchi, A.

2016-12-01

The Arctic warms much more than the rest of the world under relatively uniform radiative forcing. Recent observations verify this characteristics of global warming. On the other hand, previous studies based on paleo-proxy data and paleo- and idealized numerical experiments have indicated that asymmetric warming between the two hemispheres can impact on the distribution of tropical precipitation. It was suggested diagnostically that the Arctic warming amplification may become responsible for a part of the future precipitation change in the tropics. In the current study, we have conducted several sensitivity experiments that isolate the effect of remote warming on the tropical precipitation using an atmospheric general circulation model with a mixture of prescribed and predicted mixed-layer sea surface conditions, depending of the region. Additional experiments including ocean dynamics will also be presented. In a standard equilibrium experiment of doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (2xCO2), the Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitude (40-90ºN) warms by about 7ºC and precipitation change occurs mostly in the tropical Pacific (20ºS-20ºN). In the zonal average, the increase in precipitation is larger in the North than the South by about 0.5 mm/day and the peak latitude of precipitation shifted northward by about 1º. Sensitivity experiments were designed to amplify or suppress the Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitude warming to different levels and to allow for the tropics to respond freely to those perturbations. The perturbations of the mid-high latitude warming range from -5ºC to +7ºC from the standard 2xCO2 experiment, and precipitation change range from -160% to +160% relative to the difference between 2xCO2 and control experiments. The peak latitude of precipitation shifted northward from -1.5º to +2.5º, and it was verified that most of the change is contributed by the change in the Hadley circulation, rather than the change in the moisture amount

G-warm inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrera, Ramón

2017-05-01

A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G(phi,X)=g(phi) X. As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition R<1+3gHdot phi, and the strong regime in which 1warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T>H, the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r=r(ns) from Planck data.

Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diffenbaugh, Noah; Scherer, Martin; Ashfaq, Moetasim

2012-01-01

Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the Northern Hemisphere1,2, raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions1,3. Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (for example, refs 1,3 5), the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate- change impacts3,6,7. We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the Northern Hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during themore » near- termdecadesandat2 Cglobalwarming.Theoccurrenceof extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late twenty-first century, as do the occurrences of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the Northern Hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2 C above the pre-industrial baseline.« less

Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface temperatures reveal more than warming.

PubMed

Lima, Fernando P; Wethey, David S

2012-02-28

Understanding and forecasting current and future consequences of coastal warming require a fine-scale assessment of the near-shore temperature changes. Here we show that despite the fact that 71% of the world's coastlines are significantly warming, rates of change have been highly heterogeneous both spatially and seasonally. We demonstrate that 46% of the coastlines have experienced a significant decrease in the frequency of extremely cold events, while extremely hot days are becoming more common in 38% of the area. Also, we show that the onset of the warm season is significantly advancing earlier in the year in 36% of the temperate coastal regions. More importantly, it is now possible to analyse local patterns within the global context, which is useful for a broad array of scientific fields, policy makers and general public.

Patient warming excess heat: the effects on orthopedic operating room ventilation performance.

PubMed

Belani, Kumar G; Albrecht, Mark; McGovern, Paul D; Reed, Mike; Nachtsheim, Christopher

2013-08-01

Patient warming has become a standard of care for the prevention of unintentional hypothermia based on benefits established in general surgery. However, these benefits may not fully translate to contamination-sensitive surgery (i.e., implants), because patient warming devices release excess heat that may disrupt the intended ceiling-to-floor ventilation airflows and expose the surgical site to added contamination. Therefore, we studied the effects of 2 popular patient warming technologies, forced air and conductive fabric, versus control conditions on ventilation performance in an orthopedic operating room with a mannequin draped for total knee replacement. Ventilation performance was assessed by releasing neutrally buoyant detergent bubbles ("bubbles") into the nonsterile region under the head-side of the anesthesia drape. We then tracked whether the excess heat from upper body patient warming mobilized the "bubbles" into the surgical site. Formally, a randomized replicated design assessed the effect of device (forced air, conductive fabric, control) and anesthesia drape height (low-drape, high-drape) on the number of bubbles photographed over the surgical site. The direct mass-flow exhaust from forced air warming generated hot air convection currents that mobilized bubbles over the anesthesia drape and into the surgical site, resulting in a significant increase in bubble counts for the factor of patient warming device (P < 0.001). Forced air had an average count of 132.5 versus 0.48 for conductive fabric (P = 0.003) and 0.01 for control conditions (P = 0.008) across both drape heights. Differences in average bubble counts across both drape heights were insignificant between conductive fabric and control conditions (P = 0.87). The factor of drape height had no significant effect (P = 0.94) on bubble counts. Excess heat from forced air warming resulted in the disruption of ventilation airflows over the surgical site, whereas conductive patient warming devices had

Global warming and obesity: a systematic review.

PubMed

An, R; Ji, M; Zhang, S

2018-02-01

Global warming and the obesity epidemic are two unprecedented challenges mankind faces today. A literature search was conducted in the PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCO and Scopus for articles published until July 2017 that reported findings on the relationship between global warming and the obesity epidemic. Fifty studies were identified. Topic-wise, articles were classified into four relationships - global warming and the obesity epidemic are correlated because of common drivers (n = 21); global warming influences the obesity epidemic (n = 13); the obesity epidemic influences global warming (n = 13); and global warming and the obesity epidemic influence each other (n = 3). We constructed a conceptual model linking global warming and the obesity epidemic - the fossil fuel economy, population growth and industrialization impact land use and urbanization, motorized transportation and agricultural productivity and consequently influences global warming by excess greenhouse gas emission and the obesity epidemic by nutrition transition and physical inactivity; global warming also directly impacts obesity by food supply/price shock and adaptive thermogenesis, and the obesity epidemic impacts global warming by the elevated energy consumption. Policies that endorse deployment of clean and sustainable energy sources, and urban designs that promote active lifestyles, are likely to alleviate the societal burden of global warming and obesity. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

Marine species distribution shifts on the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf under continued ocean warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleisner, Kristin M.; Fogarty, Michael J.; McGee, Sally; Hare, Jonathan A.; Moret, Skye; Perretti, Charles T.; Saba, Vincent S.

2017-04-01

The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf marine ecosystem has warmed much faster than the global ocean and it is expected that this enhanced warming will continue through this century. Complex bathymetry and ocean circulation in this region have contributed to biases in global climate model simulations of the Shelf waters. Increasing the resolution of these models results in reductions in the bias of future climate change projections and indicates greater warming than suggested by coarse resolution climate projections. Here, we used a high-resolution global climate model and historical observations of species distributions from a trawl survey to examine changes in the future distribution of suitable thermal habitat for various demersal and pelagic species on the Shelf. Along the southern portion of the shelf (Mid-Atlantic Bight and Georges Bank), a projected 4.1 °C (surface) to 5.0 °C (bottom) warming of ocean temperature from current conditions results in a northward shift of the thermal habitat for the majority of species. While some southern species like butterfish and black sea bass are projected to have moderate losses in suitable thermal habitat, there are potentially significant increases for many species including summer flounder, striped bass, and Atlantic croaker. In the north, in the Gulf of Maine, a projected 3.7 °C (surface) to 3.9 °C (bottom) warming from current conditions results in substantial reductions in suitable thermal habitat such that species currently inhabiting this region may not remain in these waters under continued warming. We project a loss in suitable thermal habitat for key northern species including Acadian redfish, American plaice, Atlantic cod, haddock, and thorney skate, but potential gains for some species including spiny dogfish and American lobster. We illustrate how changes in suitable thermal habitat of important commercially fished species may impact local fishing communities and potentially impact major fishing ports

The southern African climate under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming as simulated by CORDEX regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maúre, G.; Pinto, I.; Ndebele-Murisa, M.; Muthige, M.; Lennard, C.; Nikulin, G.; Dosio, A.; Meque, A.

2018-06-01

Results from an 25 regional climate model simulations from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment Africa initiative are used to assess the projected changes in temperature and precipitation over southern Africa at two global warming levels (GWLs), namely 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, relative to pre-industrial values, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. The results show a robust increase in temperature compared to the control period (1971–2000) ranging from 0.5 °C–1.5 °C for the 1.5 °C GWL and from 1.5 °C–2.5 °C, for the 2.0 °C GWL. Areas in the south-western region of the subcontinent, covering South Africa and parts of Namibia and Botswana are projected to experience the largest increase in temperature, which are greater than the global mean warming, particularly during the September–October–November season. On the other hand, under 1.5 °C GWL, models exhibit a robust reduction in precipitation of up to 0.4 mm day‑1 (roughly 20% of the climatological values) over the Limpopo Basin and smaller areas of the Zambezi Basin in Zambia, and also parts of Western Cape, South Africa. Models project precipitation increase of up to 0.1 mm day‑1 over central and western South Africa and in southern Namibia. Under 2.0 °C GWL, a larger fraction of land is projected to face robust decreases between 0.2 and 0.4 mm day‑1 (around 10%–20% of the climatological values) over most of the central subcontinent and parts of western South Africa and northern Mozambique. Decreases in precipitation are accompanied by increases in the number of consecutive dry days and decreases in consecutive wet days over the region. The importance of achieving the Paris Agreement is imperative for southern Africa as the projected changes under both the 1.5 °C, and more so, 2.0 °C GWL imply significant potential risks to agricultural and economic productivity, human and ecological systems health and water resources with implied

Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

PubMed

Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen

2018-04-30

The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

Why were Past North Atlantic Warming Conditions Associated with Drier Climate in the Western United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, C. I.; Potter, G. L.; Montanez, I. P.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Behling, P.; Oster, J. L.

2014-12-01

Investigating climate dynamics governing rainfall over the western US during past warmings and coolings of the last glacial and deglaciation is pertinent to understanding how precipitation patterns might change with future global warming, especially as the processes driving the global hydrological reorganization affecting this drought-prone region during these rapid temperature changes remain unresolved. We present model climates of the Bølling warm event (14,500 years ago) and Younger Dryas cool event (12,200 years ago) that i) uniquely enable the assessment of dueling hypothesis about the atmospheric teleconnections responsible for abrupt temperature shifts in the North Atlantic region to variations in moisture conditions across the western US, and ii) show that existing hypotheses about these teleconnections are unsupported. Modeling results show no evidence for a north-south shift of the Pacific winter storm track, and we argue that a tropical moisture source with evolving trajectory cannot explain alternation between wet/dry conditions, which have been reconstructed from the proxy record. Alternatively, model results support a new hypothesis that variations in the intensity of the winter storm track, corresponding to its expansion/contraction, can account for regional moisture differences between warm and cool intervals of the last deglaciation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mechanism forcing the teleconnection between the North Atlantic and western US is the same across different boundary conditions. In our simulation, during the last deglaciation, and in simulations of future warming, perturbation of the Rossby wave structure reconfigures the atmospheric state. This reconfiguration affects the Aleutian Low and high-pressure ridge over and off of the northern North American coastline driving variability in the storm track. Similarity between the processes governing the climate response during these distinct time intervals illustrates the robust nature

Warming and wetting signals emerging from analysis of changes in climate extreme indices over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skansi, María de los Milagros; Brunet, Manola; Sigró, Javier; Aguilar, Enric; Arevalo Groening, Juan Andrés; Bentancur, Oscar J.; Castellón Geier, Yaruska Rosa; Correa Amaya, Ruth Leonor; Jácome, Homero; Malheiros Ramos, Andrea; Oria Rojas, Clara; Pasten, Alejandro Max; Sallons Mitro, Sukarni; Villaroel Jiménez, Claudia; Martínez, Rodney; Alexander, Lisa V.; Jones, P. D.

2013-01-01

Here we show and discuss the results of an assessment of changes in both area-averaged and station-based climate extreme indices over South America (SA) for the 1950-2010 and 1969-2009 periods using high-quality daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation series. A weeklong regional workshop in Guayaquil (Ecuador) provided the opportunity to extend the current picture of changes in climate extreme indices over SA. Our results provide evidence of warming and wetting across the whole SA since the mid-20th century onwards. Nighttime (minimum) temperature indices show the largest rates of warming (e.g. for tropical nights, cold and warm nights), while daytime (maximum) temperature indices also point to warming (e.g. for cold days, summer days, the annual lowest daytime temperature), but at lower rates than for minimums. Both tails of night-time temperatures have warmed by a similar magnitude, with cold days (the annual lowest nighttime and daytime temperatures) seeing reductions (increases). Trends are strong and moderate (moderate to weak) for regional-averaged (local) indices, most of them pointing to a less cold SA during the day and warmer night-time temperatures. Regionally-averaged precipitation indices show clear wetting and a signature of intensified heavy rain events over the eastern part of the continent. The annual amounts of rainfall are rising strongly over south-east SA (26.41 mm/decade) and Amazonia (16.09 mm/decade), but north-east Brazil and the western part of SA have experienced non-significant decreases. Very wet and extremely days, the annual maximum 5-day and 1-day precipitation show the largest upward trends, indicating an intensified rainfall signal for SA, particularly over Amazonia and south-east SA. Local trends for precipitation extreme indices are in general less coherent spatially, but with more general spatially coherent upward trends in extremely wet days over all SA.

Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Dinezio, Pedro N.; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

2017-06-01

In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015-16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes.

Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming.

PubMed

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

2017-06-06

In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015-16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes.

Long-term Variation of the East Sea Throughflow and its Possible Influences on the East Sea Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, H.; Lee, H.; Kang, S.; Jung, K.

2006-12-01

The prominent long-term change of the East Sea (Japan Sea) is the deep water warming and the depletion of oxygen in the deep layer during the last 40 years. The cause of this phenomena explained mainly by the slow down of the deep convection in the northern region influenced by the global warming. A distinguished feature of the East Sea is the upper layer flow through the three major straits connected to the Pacific Ocean. Generally, East Sea Throughflow (EST) supplies the warm water through the Korea Strait and drains relatively cold water through the Tsugaru and the Soya Straits. In this study, the role of the EST transport variation on the East Sea warming has been investigated. To understand the EST transport variablililty, monthly mean EST transport time series extracted from the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA 1.4.2) data during the period of 1958 to 2001. It shows that winter time transport anomaly seems to have overall increasing trend with PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) like fluctuation. The relation between the EST transport anomaly and the local or remote wind stress anomaly has been studied. We have also carried out a numerical experiment using a three-dimensional regional model to understand the East Sea response to the long-term EST transport change. Though the throughflow confined in the upper layer, it is interesting to note that the EST can affect on the meridional overturning strength by way of changing the heat transport amount to the convection favorable region. Possible influences of the EST transport variablity on the East Sea warming are discussed.

Ocean acidification and warming will lower coral reef resilience

PubMed Central

Anthony, Kenneth R N; Maynard, Jeffrey A; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Mumby, Peter J; Marshall, Paul A; Cao, Long; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

2011-01-01

Ocean warming and acidification from increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 represent major global threats to coral reefs, and are in many regions exacerbated by local-scale disturbances such as overfishing and nutrient enrichment. Our understanding of global threats and local-scale disturbances on reefs is growing, but their relative contribution to reef resilience and vulnerability in the future is unclear. Here, we analyse quantitatively how different combinations of CO2 and fishing pressure on herbivores will affect the ecological resilience of a simplified benthic reef community, as defined by its capacity to maintain and recover to coral-dominated states. We use a dynamic community model integrated with the growth and mortality responses for branching corals (Acropora) and fleshy macroalgae (Lobophora). We operationalize the resilience framework by parameterizing the response function for coral growth (calcification) by ocean acidification and warming, coral bleaching and mortality by warming, macroalgal mortality by herbivore grazing and macroalgal growth via nutrient loading. The model was run for changes in sea surface temperature and water chemistry predicted by the rise in atmospheric CO2 projected from the IPCC's fossil-fuel intensive A1FI scenario during this century. Results demonstrated that severe acidification and warming alone can lower reef resilience (via impairment of coral growth and increased coral mortality) even under high grazing intensity and low nutrients. Further, the threshold at which herbivore overfishing (reduced grazing) leads to a coral–algal phase shift was lowered by acidification and warming. These analyses support two important conclusions: Firstly, reefs already subjected to herbivore overfishing and nutrification are likely to be more vulnerable to increasing CO2. Secondly, under CO2 regimes above 450–500 ppm, management of local-scale disturbances will become critical to keeping reefs within an Acropora-rich domain.

Changes in aridity in response to the global warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Xiaodan; Huang, Jianping; Guo, Ruixia

2017-02-01

The global warming slowdown or warming hiatus, began around the year 2000 and has persisted for nearly 15 years. Most studies have focused on the interpretation of the hiatus in temperature. In this study, changes in a global aridity index (AI) were analyzed by using a newly developed dynamical adjustment method that can successfully identify and separate dynamically induced and radiatively forced aridity changes in the raw data. The AI and Palmer Drought Severity Index produced a wetting zone over the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in recent decades. The dynamical adjustment analysis suggested that this wetting zone occurred in response to the global warming hiatus. The dynamically induced AI (DAI) played a major role in the AI changes during the hiatus period, and its relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) also indicated that different phases of the NAO, PDO, and AMO contributed to different performances of the DAI over the Northern Hemisphere. Although the aridity wetting over the mid-to-high latitudes may relieve long-term drying in certain regions, the hiatus is temporary, and so is the relief. Accelerated global warming will return when the NAO, PDO, and AMO revert to their opposite phases in the future, and the wetting zone is likely to disappear.

Authropogenic Warming in North Alaska?.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaels, Patrick J.; Sappington, David E.; Stooksbury, David E.

1988-09-01

Using permafrost boreholes, Lachenbruch and Marshall recently reported evidence for a 2°-4°C warming in North Alaska occurring at some undetermined time during the last century. Popular accounts suggest their findings are evidence for anthropogenic warming caused by trace gases. Analyses of North Alaskan 1000-500 mb thickness onwards back to 1948 indicate that the warming was prior to that date. Relatively sparse thermometric data for the early twentieth century from Jones et al. are too noisy to support any trend since the data record begins in 1910, or to apply to any subperiod of climatic significance. Any warming detected from the permafrost record therefore occurred before the major emissions of thermally active trace gases.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-01-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming. PMID:28425445

Changes in yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Childers, Katelin

2015-04-01

An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the political discussion about mitigation targets as well as for the inclusion of climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that generally only provide global mean temperature change as an indicator of climate change. While there is a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with global mean temperature change we provide an assessment of the extent to which impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of global mean temperature changes without accounting for the specific underlying emissions scenario. Based on multi-crop-model simulations of the four major cereal crops (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree global grid generated within ISI-MIP, we show the average spatial patterns of projected crop yield changes at one half degree warming steps. We find that emissions scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of global warming. Furthermore, scenario dependence can be reduced by accounting for the direct effects of CO2 fertilization in each global climate model (GCM)/impact model combination through an inclusion of the global atmospheric CO2 concentration as a second predictor. The choice of GCM output used to force the crop model simulations accounts for a slightly larger portion of the total yield variance, but the greatest contributor to variance in both global and regional crop yields and at all levels of warming, is the inter-crop-model spread. The unique multi impact model ensemble available with ISI-MIP data also indicates that the overall variability of crop yields is projected to increase in conjunction with increasing global mean temperature. This result is consistent throughout the ensemble of impact models and across many world regions. Such a hike in yield volatility could have

Peatland Ecosystem Processes in the Maritime Antarctic During Warm Climates.

PubMed

Loisel, Julie; Yu, Zicheng; Beilman, David W; Kaiser, Karl; Parnikoza, Ivan

2017-09-27

We discovered a 50-cm-thick peat deposit near Cape Rasmussen (65.2°S), in the maritime Antarctic. To our knowledge, while aerobic 'moss banks' have often been examined, waterlogged 'peatlands' have never been described in this region before. The waterlogged system is approximately 100 m 2 , with a shallow water table. Surface vegetation is dominated by Warnstorfia fontinaliopsis, a wet-adapted moss commonly found in the Antarctic Peninsula. Peat inception was dated at 2750 cal. BP and was followed by relatively rapid peat accumulation (~0.1 cm/year) until 2150 cal. BP. Our multi-proxy analysis then shows a 2000-year-long stratigraphic hiatus as well as the recent resurgence of peat accumulation, sometime after 1950 AD. The existence of a thriving peatland at 2700-2150 cal. BP implies regionally warm summer conditions extending beyond the mid-Holocene; this finding is corroborated by many regional records showing moss bank initiation and decreased sea ice extent during this time period. Recent peatland recovery at the study site (<50 years ago) might have been triggered by ongoing rapid warming, as the area is experiencing climatic conditions approaching those found on milder, peatland-rich sub-Antarctic islands (50-60°S). Assuming that colonization opportunities and stabilization mechanisms would allow peat to persist in Antarctica, our results suggest that longer and warmer growing seasons in the maritime Antarctic region may promote a more peatland-rich landscape in the future.

Independent effects of warming and nitrogen addition on plant phenology in the Inner Mongolian steppe

PubMed Central

Xia, Jianyang; Wan, Shiqiang

2013-01-01

Background and Aims Phenology is one of most sensitive traits of plants in response to regional climate warming. Better understanding of the interactive effects between warming and other environmental change factors, such as increasing atmosphere nitrogen (N) deposition, is critical for projection of future plant phenology. Methods A 4-year field experiment manipulating temperature and N has been conducted in a temperate steppe in northern China. Phenology, including flowering and fruiting date as well as reproductive duration, of eight plant species was monitored and calculated from 2006 to 2009. Key Results Across all the species and years, warming significantly advanced flowering and fruiting time by 0·64 and 0·72 d per season, respectively, which were mainly driven by the earliest species (Potentilla acaulis). Although N addition showed no impact on phenological times across the eight species, it significantly delayed flowering time of Heteropappus altaicus and fruiting time of Agropyron cristatum. The responses of flowering and fruiting times to warming or N addition are coupled, leading to no response of reproductive duration to warming or N addition for most species. Warming shortened reproductive duration of Potentilla bifurca but extended that of Allium bidentatum, whereas N addition shortened that of A. bidentatum. No interactive effect between warming and N addition was found on any phenological event. Such additive effects could be ascribed to the species-specific responses of plant phenology to warming and N addition. Conclusions The results suggest that the warming response of plant phenology is larger in earlier than later flowering species in temperate grassland systems. The effects of warming and N addition on plant phenology are independent of each other. These findings can help to better understand and predict the response of plant phenology to climate warming concurrent with other global change driving factors. PMID:23585496

Independent effects of warming and nitrogen addition on plant phenology in the Inner Mongolian steppe.

PubMed

Xia, Jianyang; Wan, Shiqiang

2013-06-01

Phenology is one of most sensitive traits of plants in response to regional climate warming. Better understanding of the interactive effects between warming and other environmental change factors, such as increasing atmosphere nitrogen (N) deposition, is critical for projection of future plant phenology. A 4-year field experiment manipulating temperature and N has been conducted in a temperate steppe in northern China. Phenology, including flowering and fruiting date as well as reproductive duration, of eight plant species was monitored and calculated from 2006 to 2009. Across all the species and years, warming significantly advanced flowering and fruiting time by 0·64 and 0·72 d per season, respectively, which were mainly driven by the earliest species (Potentilla acaulis). Although N addition showed no impact on phenological times across the eight species, it significantly delayed flowering time of Heteropappus altaicus and fruiting time of Agropyron cristatum. The responses of flowering and fruiting times to warming or N addition are coupled, leading to no response of reproductive duration to warming or N addition for most species. Warming shortened reproductive duration of Potentilla bifurca but extended that of Allium bidentatum, whereas N addition shortened that of A. bidentatum. No interactive effect between warming and N addition was found on any phenological event. Such additive effects could be ascribed to the species-specific responses of plant phenology to warming and N addition. The results suggest that the warming response of plant phenology is larger in earlier than later flowering species in temperate grassland systems. The effects of warming and N addition on plant phenology are independent of each other. These findings can help to better understand and predict the response of plant phenology to climate warming concurrent with other global change driving factors.

40 CFR 49.11075 - Classification of regions for episode plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Tribes-Region X Implementation Plan for the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon... encompasses the Warm Springs Reservation is classified as follows for purposes of episode plans: Pollutant...

40 CFR 49.11075 - Classification of regions for episode plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Tribes-Region X Implementation Plan for the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon... encompasses the Warm Springs Reservation is classified as follows for purposes of episode plans: Pollutant...

40 CFR 49.11075 - Classification of regions for episode plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... Tribes-Region X Implementation Plan for the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon... encompasses the Warm Springs Reservation is classified as follows for purposes of episode plans: Pollutant...

40 CFR 49.11075 - Classification of regions for episode plans.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... Tribes-Region X Implementation Plan for the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon... encompasses the Warm Springs Reservation is classified as follows for purposes of episode plans: Pollutant...

Sea level rise with warming above 2 degree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

2017-04-01

Holding the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C, has been agreed by the representatives of the 196 parties of United Nations, as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. Sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate for the more than 600 million people living in low-elevation coastal areas less than 10 meters above sea level. Fragile coastal ecosystems and increasing concentrations of population and economic activity in coastal areas, are reasons why future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of the warming climate. Furthermore, sea level is set to continue to rise for centuries after greenhouse gas emissions concentrations are stabilised due to system inertia and feedback time scales. Impact, risk, adaptation policies and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on regional and local sea level rise projections and local projections can differ substantially from the global one. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 degree goal. A warming of 2°C makes global ocean rise on average by 20 cm, but more than 90% of coastal areas will experience greater rises, 40 cm along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway, due to ocean dynamics. If warming continues above 2°C, then by 2100 sea level will rise with speeds unprecedented throughout human civilization, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the global coastline will exceed the global ocean sea level rise upper 95% confidence limit of 1.8 m. Coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, small island states, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems will have a very limited time after mid-century to adapt to sea level rises.

Species interactions slow warming-induced upward shifts of treelines on the Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Liang, Eryuan; Wang, Yafeng; Piao, Shilong; Lu, Xiaoming; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Zhu, Haifeng; Zhu, Liping; Ciais, Philippe; Peñuelas, Josep

2016-01-01

The alpine treeline is commonly regarded as being sensitive to climatic warming because regeneration and growth of trees at treeline generally are limited by low temperature. The alpine treelines of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) occur at the highest elevations (4,900 m above sea level) in the Northern Hemisphere. Ongoing climatic warming is expected to shift treelines upward. Studies of treeline dynamics at regional and local scales, however, have yielded conflicting results, indicating either unchanging treeline elevations or upward shifts. To reconcile this conflict, we reconstructed in detail a century of treeline structure and tree recruitment at sites along a climatic gradient of 4 °C and mean annual rainfall of 650 mm on the eastern TP. Species interactions interacted with effects of warming on treeline and could outweigh them. Densification of shrubs just above treeline inhibited tree establishment, and slowed upward movement of treelines on a time scale of decades. Interspecific interactions are major processes controlling treeline dynamics that may account for the absence of an upward shift at some TP treelines despite continued climatic warming. PMID:27044083

Species interactions slow warming-induced upward shifts of treelines on the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Liang, Eryuan; Wang, Yafeng; Piao, Shilong; Lu, Xiaoming; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Zhu, Haifeng; Zhu, Liping; Ellison, Aaron M; Ciais, Philippe; Peñuelas, Josep

2016-04-19

The alpine treeline is commonly regarded as being sensitive to climatic warming because regeneration and growth of trees at treeline generally are limited by low temperature. The alpine treelines of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) occur at the highest elevations (4,900 m above sea level) in the Northern Hemisphere. Ongoing climatic warming is expected to shift treelines upward. Studies of treeline dynamics at regional and local scales, however, have yielded conflicting results, indicating either unchanging treeline elevations or upward shifts. To reconcile this conflict, we reconstructed in detail a century of treeline structure and tree recruitment at sites along a climatic gradient of 4 °C and mean annual rainfall of 650 mm on the eastern TP. Species interactions interacted with effects of warming on treeline and could outweigh them. Densification of shrubs just above treeline inhibited tree establishment, and slowed upward movement of treelines on a time scale of decades. Interspecific interactions are major processes controlling treeline dynamics that may account for the absence of an upward shift at some TP treelines despite continued climatic warming.

Multi-species collapses at the warm edge of a warming sea

PubMed Central

Rilov, Gil

2016-01-01

Even during the current biodiversity crisis, reports on population collapses of highly abundant, non-harvested marine species were rare until very recently. This is starting to change, especially at the warm edge of species’ distributions where populations are more vulnerable to stress. The Levant basin is the southeastern edge of distribution of most Mediterranean species. Coastal water conditions are naturally extreme, and are fast warming, making it a potential hotspot for species collapses. Using multiple data sources, I found strong evidence for major, sustained, population collapses of two urchins, one large predatory gastropod and a reef-building gastropod. Furthermore, of 59 molluscan species once-described in the taxonomic literature as common on Levant reefs, 38 were not found in the present-day surveys, and there was a total domination of non-indigenous species in molluscan assemblages. Temperature trends indicate an exceptional warming of the coastal waters in the past three decades. Though speculative at this stage, the fast rise in SST may have helped pushing these invertebrates beyond their physiological tolerance limits leading to population collapses and possible extirpations. If so, these collapses may indicate the initiation of a multi-species range contraction at the Mediterranean southeastern edge that may spread westward with additional warming. PMID:27853237

Increasing flash droughts over China during the recent global warming hiatus

PubMed Central

Wang, Linying; Yuan, Xing; Xie, Zhenghui; Wu, Peili; Li, Yaohui

2016-01-01

The recent global warming slowdown or hiatus after the big El Niño event in 1997/98 raises the questions of whether terrestrial hydrological cycle is being decelerated and how do the hydrological extremes respond to the hiatus. However, the rapidly developing drought events that are termed as “flash droughts” accompanied by extreme heat, low soil moisture and high evapotranspiration (ET), occurred frequently around the world, and caused devastating impacts on crop yields and water supply. Here, we investigate the long-term trend and variability of flash droughts over China. Flash droughts are most likely to occur over humid and semi-humid regions, such as southern and northeastern China. Flash drought averaged over China increased by 109% from 1979 to 2010, and the increase was mainly due to a long term warming of temperature (50%), followed by the contributions from decreasing soil moisture and increasing ET. There was a slight drop in temperature after 1997, but the increasing trend of flash droughts was tripled. Further results indicate that the decreasing temperature was compensated by the accelerated drying trends of soil moisture and enhanced ET, leading to an acceleration of flash droughts during the warming hiatus. The anthropogenic warming in the next few decades may exacerbate future flash drought conditions in China. PMID:27513724

Non-climatic thermal adaptation: implications for species' responses to climate warming.

PubMed

Marshall, David J; McQuaid, Christopher D; Williams, Gray A

2010-10-23

There is considerable interest in understanding how ectothermic animals may physiologically and behaviourally buffer the effects of climate warming. Much less consideration is being given to how organisms might adapt to non-climatic heat sources in ways that could confound predictions for responses of species and communities to climate warming. Although adaptation to non-climatic heat sources (solar and geothermal) seems likely in some marine species, climate warming predictions for marine ectotherms are largely based on adaptation to climatically relevant heat sources (air or surface sea water temperature). Here, we show that non-climatic solar heating underlies thermal resistance adaptation in a rocky-eulittoral-fringe snail. Comparisons of the maximum temperatures of the air, the snail's body and the rock substratum with solar irradiance and physiological performance show that the highest body temperature is primarily controlled by solar heating and re-radiation, and that the snail's upper lethal temperature exceeds the highest climatically relevant regional air temperature by approximately 22°C. Non-climatic thermal adaptation probably features widely among marine and terrestrial ectotherms and because it could enable species to tolerate climatic rises in air temperature, it deserves more consideration in general and for inclusion into climate warming models.

Regional Warming and Emerging Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dirofilariosis in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Other Post-Soviet States from 1981 to 2011 and Projection by 2030

PubMed Central

Afonin, Alexandr; González-Miguel, Javier; Sepúlveda, Rosa; Simón, Luis

2014-01-01

We analyze through a climatic model the influence of regional warming on the geographical spreading and potential risk of infection of human dirofilariosis in Russia, Ukraine, and other post-Soviet states from 1981 to 2011 and estimate the situation by 2030. The model correctly predicts the spatiotemporal location of 97.10% of 2154 clinical cases reported in the area during the studied period, identified by a retrospective review of the literature. There exists also a significant correlation between annual predicted Dirofilaria generations and calculated morbidity. The model states the progressive increase of 14.8% in the potential transmission area, up to latitude 64°N, and 14.7% in population exposure. By 2030 an increase of 18.5% in transmission area and 10.8% in population exposure is expected. These findings strongly suggest the influence of global warming in both geographical spreading and increase in the number of Dirofilaria generations. The results should alert about the epidemiological behavior of dirofilariosis and other mosquito-borne diseases in these and other countries with similar climatic characteristics. PMID:25045709

Global warming reduces plant reproductive output for temperate multi-inflorescence species on the Tibetan plateau.

PubMed

Liu, Yinzhan; Mu, Junpeng; Niklas, Karl J; Li, Guoyong; Sun, Shucun

2012-07-01

• Temperature is projected to increase more during the winter than during the summer in cold regions. The effects of winter warming on reproductive effort have not been examined for temperate plant species. • Here, we report the results of experimentally induced seasonal winter warming (0.4 and 2.4°C increases in growing and nongrowing seasons, respectively, using warmed and ambient open-top chambers in a Tibetan Plateau alpine meadow) for nine indeterminate-growing species producing multiple (single-flowered or multi-flowered) inflorescences and three determinate-growing species producing single inflorescences after a 3-yr period of warming. • Warming reduced significantly flower number and seed production per plant for all nine multi-inflorescence species, but not for the three single-inflorescence species. Warming had an insignificant effect on the fruit to flower number ratio, seed size and seed number per fruit among species. The reduction in seed production was largely attributable to the decline in flower number per plant. The flowering onset time was unaffected for nine of the 12 species. Therefore, the decline in flower production and seed production in response to winter warming probably reflects a physiological response (e.g. metabolic changes associated with flower production). • Collectively, the data indicate that global warming may reduce flower and seed production for temperate herbaceous species and will probably have a differential effect on single- vs multi-inflorescence species. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.

Intensified plant N and C pool with more available nitrogen under experimental warming in an alpine meadow ecosystem.

PubMed

Peng, Fei; Xue, Xian; You, Quangang; Xu, Manhou; Chen, Xiang; Guo, Jian; Wang, Tao

2016-12-01

Nitrogen (N) availability is projected to increase in a warming climate. But whether the more available N is immobilized by microbes (thus stimulates soil carbon (C) decomposition), or is absorbed by plants (thus intensifies C uptake) remains unknown in the alpine meadow ecosystem. Infrared heaters were used to simulate climate warming with a paired experimental design. Soil ammonification, nitrification, and net mineralization were obtained by in situ incubation in a permafrost region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Available N significantly increased due to the stimulation of net nitrification and mineralization in 0-30 cm soil layer. Microbes immobilized N in the end of growing season in both warming and control plots. The magnitude of immobilized N was lower in the warming plots. The root N concentration significantly reduced, but root N pool intensified due to the significant increase in root biomass in the warming treatment. Our results suggest that a warming-induced increase in biomass is the major N sink and will continue to stimulate plant growth until plant N saturation, which could sustain the positive warming effect on ecosystem productivity.

Regional climate and vegetation response to orbital forcing within the mid-Pliocene Warm Period: A study using HadCM3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prescott, C. L.; Dolan, A. M.; Haywood, A. M.; Hunter, S. J.; Tindall, J. C.

2018-02-01

Regional climate and environmental variability in response to orbital forcing during interglacial events within the mid-Piacenzian (Pliocene) Warm Period (mPWP; 3.264-3.025 Ma) has been rarely studied using climate and vegetation models. Here we use climate and vegetation model simulations to predict changes in regional vegetation patterns in response to orbital forcing for four different interglacial events within the mPWP (Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) G17, K1, KM3 and KM5c). The efficacy of model-predicted changes in regional vegetation is assessed by reference to selected high temporal resolution palaeobotanical studies that are theoretically capable of discerning vegetation patterns for the selected interglacial stages. Annual mean surface air temperatures for the studied interglacials are between 0.4 °C to 0.7 °C higher than a comparable Pliocene experiment using modern orbital parameters. Increased spring/summer and reduced autumn/winter insolation in the Northern Hemisphere during MIS G17, K1 and KM3 enhances seasonality in surface air temperature. The two most robust and notable regional responses to this in vegetation cover occur in North America and continental Eurasia, where forests are replaced by more open-types of vegetation (grasslands and shrubland). In these regions our model results appear to be inconsistent with local palaeobotanical data. The orbitally driven changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation lead to a 30% annual reduction in available deep soil moisture (2.0 m from surface), a critical parameter for forest growth, and subsequent reduction in the geographical coverage of forest-type vegetation; a phenomenon not seen in comparable simulations of Pliocene climate and vegetation run with a modern orbital configuration. Our results demonstrate the importance of examining model performance under a range of realistic orbital forcing scenarios within any defined time interval (e.g. mPWP). Additional orbitally resolved records of

Further evidence of the effects of global warming on lichens, particularly those with Trentepohlia phycobionts.

PubMed

Aptroot, A; van Herk, C M

2007-03-01

Increasing evidence suggests that lichens are responding to climate change in Western Europe. More epiphytic species appear to be increasing, rather than declining, as a result of global warming. Many terricolous species, in contrast, are declining. Changes to epiphytic floras are markedly more rapid in formerly heavily polluted, generally built-up or open rural areas, as compared to forested regions. Both the distribution (southern) and ecology (warmth-loving) of the newly established or increasing species seem to be determined by global warming. Epiphytic temperate to boreo-montane species appear to be relatively unaffected. Vacant niches caused by other environmental changes are showing the most pronounced effects of global warming. Species most rapidly increasing in forests, although taxonomically unrelated, all contain Trentepohlia as phycobiont in addition to having a southern distribution. This suggests that in this habitat, Trentepohlia algae, rather than the different lichen symbioses, are affected by global warming.

Warm & wet or warm & dry? - A tree-ring based drought reconstruction from the European lowlands with emphasis on the medieval climate anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharnweber, Tobias; Heinrich, Ingo; van der Maaten, Ernst; Heußner, Karl-Uwe; Wilmking, Martin

2016-04-01

Recent advances in reconstructing natural drought variability in Europe, such as the 'Old world drought atlas' (Cook et al., 2015), have sharpened our picture of historical hydroclimatic variability. However, our knowledge lacks high spatial resolution, especially for the northern non-arid regions. For example, it is still under debate if the so called medieval climate anomaly (MCA; ~950-1300 AD), a period of warm temperatures comparable to the contemporary warm phase, was likewise accompanied by increased drought occurrence, or, on the contrary, was rather wet (e.g. Kress et al., 2014). Here, we present a new millennial long drought reconstruction based on a unique dataset of tree rings from historical and modern beech wood from the northeastern European lowlands. Beech has a stable and strong regional summer drought signal over the calibration period of instrumental data (r>0.7 with drought index PDSI over 1900-2010) which, in contrast to other species such as oak, is consistent irrespective of the site/soil conditions the trees grew in. It can be assumed that during medieval times beech wood was available locally and not traded long distances. This strongly reduces the possibility that the new reconstruction mixes different signals of the possibly high spatial variability of precipitation. The extremely high replication of our chronology for the period 1000-1300 AD (peak in town foundations in NE-Germany) with more than 600 series enables a direct comparison with the well replicated recent period 1800-2010. In contrast to the results of Kress et al. (2014) for the Swiss Alps, but in accordance with the 'Old world drought atlas', our first results point at a rather dry and warm MCA in NE-Germany. In addition they support the observation that the hydroclimate of the twentieth century was highly variable compared with the last millennium. References Cook ER, Seager R, Kushnir Y, et al. (2015) Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era. Science

G-warm inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herrera, Ramón, E-mail: ramon.herrera@pucv.cl

A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G (φ, X )= g (φ) X . As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition R <1+3 gH φ-dot , and the strong regime in which 1< R +3 gH φ-dot . Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolutionmore » of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T > H , the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r = r ( n {sub s} ) from Planck data.« less

Reduced diurnal temperature range does not change warming impacts on ecosystem carbon balance of Mediterranean grassland mesocosms

DOE PAGES

Phillips, Claire L.; Gregg, Jillian W.; Wilson, John K.

2011-11-01

Daily minimum temperature (T min) has increased faster than daily maximum temperature (T max) in many parts of the world, leading to decreases in diurnal temperature range (DTR). Projections suggest these trends are likely to continue in many regions, particularly northern latitudes and in arid regions. Despite wide speculation that asymmetric warming has different impacts on plant and ecosystem production than equal-night-and-day warming, there has been little direct comparison of these scenarios. Reduced DTR has also been widely misinterpreted as a result of night-only warming, when in fact T min occurs near dawn, indicating higher morning as well as nightmore » temperatures. We report on the first experiment to examine ecosystem-scale impacts of faster increases in T min than T max, using precise temperature controls to create realistic diurnal temperature profiles with gradual day-night temperature transitions and elevated early morning as well as night temperatures. Studying a constructed grassland ecosystem containing species native to Oregon, USA, we found the ecosystem lost more carbon at elevated than ambient temperatures, but was unaffected by the 3ºC difference in DTR between symmetric warming (constantly ambient +3.5ºC) and asymmetric warming (dawn T min=ambient +5ºC, afternoon T max= ambient +2ºC). Reducing DTR had no apparent effect on photosynthesis, likely because temperatures were most different in the morning and late afternoon when light was low. Respiration was also similar in both warming treatments, because respiration temperature sensitivity was not sufficient to respond to the limited temperature differences between asymmetric and symmetric warming. We concluded that changes in daily mean temperatures, rather than changes in T min/T max, were sufficient for predicting ecosystem carbon fluxes in this reconstructed Mediterranean grassland system.« less

Sensitivity of warm-frontal processes to cloud-nucleating aerosol concentrations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Igel, Adele L.; Van Den Heever, Susan C.; Naud, Catherine M.; Saleeby, Stephen M.; Posselt, Derek J.

2013-01-01

An extratropical cyclone that crossed the United States on 9-11 April 2009 was successfully simulated at high resolution (3-km horizontal grid spacing) using the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. The sensitivity of the associated warm front to increasing pollution levels was then explored by conducting the same experiment with three different background profiles of cloud-nucleating aerosol concentration. To the authors' knowledge, no study has examined the indirect effects of aerosols on warm fronts. The budgets of ice, cloud water, and rain in the simulation with the lowest aerosol concentrations were examined. The ice mass was found to be produced in equal amounts through vapor deposition and riming, and the melting of ice produced approximately 75% of the total rain. Conversion of cloud water to rain accounted for the other 25%. When cloud-nucleating aerosol concentrations were increased, significant changes were seen in the budget terms, but total precipitation remained relatively constant. Vapor deposition onto ice increased, but riming of cloud water decreased such that there was only a small change in the total ice production and hence there was no significant change in melting. These responses can be understood in terms of a buffering effect in which smaller cloud droplets in the mixed-phase region lead to both an enhanced vapor deposition and decreased riming efficiency with increasing aerosol concentrations. Overall, while large changes were seen in the microphysical structure of the frontal cloud, cloud-nucleating aerosols had little impact on the precipitation production of the warm front.

Biotic responses buffer warming-induced soil organic carbon loss in Arctic tundra.

PubMed

Liang, Junyi; Xia, Jiangyang; Shi, Zheng; Jiang, Lifen; Ma, Shuang; Lu, Xingjie; Mauritz, Marguerite; Natali, Susan M; Pegoraro, Elaine; Penton, C Ryan; Plaza, César; Salmon, Verity G; Celis, Gerardo; Cole, James R; Konstantinidis, Konstantinos T; Tiedje, James M; Zhou, Jizhong; Schuur, Edward A G; Luo, Yiqi

2018-05-26

Climate warming can result in both abiotic (e.g., permafrost thaw) and biotic (e.g., microbial functional genes) changes in Arctic tundra. Recent research has incorporated dynamic permafrost thaw in Earth system models (ESMs) and indicates that Arctic tundra could be a significant future carbon (C) source due to the enhanced decomposition of thawed deep soil C. However, warming-induced biotic changes may influence biologically related parameters and the consequent projections in ESMs. How model parameters associated with biotic responses will change under warming and to what extent these changes affect projected C budgets have not been carefully examined. In this study, we synthesized six data sets over five years from a soil warming experiment at the Eight Mile Lake, Alaska, into the Terrestrial ECOsystem (TECO) model with a probabilistic inversion approach. The TECO model used multiple soil layers to track dynamics of thawed soil under different treatments. Our results show that warming increased light use efficiency of vegetation photosynthesis but decreased baseline (i.e., environment-corrected) turnover rates of SOC in both the fast and slow pools in comparison with those under control. Moreover, the parameter changes generally amplified over time, suggesting processes of gradual physiological acclimation and functional gene shifts of both plants and microbes. The TECO model predicted that field warming from 2009 to 2013 resulted in cumulative C losses of 224 or 87 g m -2 , respectively, without or with changes in those parameters. Thus, warming-induced parameter changes reduced predicted soil C loss by 61%. Our study suggests that it is critical to incorporate biotic changes in ESMs to improve the model performance in predicting C dynamics in permafrost regions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Deforestation and stream warming affect body size of Amazonian fishes.

PubMed

Ilha, Paulo; Schiesari, Luis; Yanagawa, Fernando I; Jankowski, KathiJo; Navas, Carlos A

2018-01-01

Declining body size has been suggested to be a universal response of organisms to rising temperatures, manifesting at all levels of organization and in a broad range of taxa. However, no study to date evaluated whether deforestation-driven warming could trigger a similar response. We studied changes in fish body size, from individuals to assemblages, in streams in Southeastern Amazonia. We first conducted sampling surveys to validate the assumption that deforestation promoted stream warming, and to test the hypothesis that warmer deforested streams had reduced fish body sizes relative to cooler forest streams. As predicted, deforested streams were up to 6 °C warmer and had fish 36% smaller than forest streams on average. This body size reduction could be largely explained by the responses of the four most common species, which were 43-55% smaller in deforested streams. We then conducted a laboratory experiment to test the hypothesis that stream warming as measured in the field was sufficient to cause a growth reduction in the dominant fish species in the region. Fish reared at forest stream temperatures gained mass, whereas those reared at deforested stream temperatures lost mass. Our results suggest that deforestation-driven stream warming is likely to be a relevant factor promoting observed body size reductions, although other changes in stream conditions, like reductions in organic matter inputs, can also be important. A broad scale reduction in fish body size due to warming may be occurring in streams throughout the Amazonian Arc of Deforestation, with potential implications for the conservation of Amazonian fish biodiversity and food supply for people around the Basin.

Deforestation and stream warming affect body size of Amazonian fishes

PubMed Central

Yanagawa, Fernando I.; Jankowski, KathiJo; Navas, Carlos A.

2018-01-01

Declining body size has been suggested to be a universal response of organisms to rising temperatures, manifesting at all levels of organization and in a broad range of taxa. However, no study to date evaluated whether deforestation-driven warming could trigger a similar response. We studied changes in fish body size, from individuals to assemblages, in streams in Southeastern Amazonia. We first conducted sampling surveys to validate the assumption that deforestation promoted stream warming, and to test the hypothesis that warmer deforested streams had reduced fish body sizes relative to cooler forest streams. As predicted, deforested streams were up to 6 °C warmer and had fish 36% smaller than forest streams on average. This body size reduction could be largely explained by the responses of the four most common species, which were 43–55% smaller in deforested streams. We then conducted a laboratory experiment to test the hypothesis that stream warming as measured in the field was sufficient to cause a growth reduction in the dominant fish species in the region. Fish reared at forest stream temperatures gained mass, whereas those reared at deforested stream temperatures lost mass. Our results suggest that deforestation-driven stream warming is likely to be a relevant factor promoting observed body size reductions, although other changes in stream conditions, like reductions in organic matter inputs, can also be important. A broad scale reduction in fish body size due to warming may be occurring in streams throughout the Amazonian Arc of Deforestation, with potential implications for the conservation of Amazonian fish biodiversity and food supply for people around the Basin. PMID:29718960

A 400-year ice core melt layer record of summertime warming in the Alaska Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winski, D.; Osterberg, E. C.; Kreutz, K. J.; Wake, C. P.; Ferris, D. G.; Campbell, S. W.; Baum, M.; Raudzens Bailey, A.; Birkel, S. D.; Introne, D.; Handley, M.

2017-12-01

Warming in high-elevation regions has socially relevant impacts on glacier mass balance, water resources, and sensitive alpine ecosystems, yet very few high-elevation temperature records exist from the middle or high latitudes. While many terrestrial paleoclimate records provide critical temperature records from low elevations over recent centuries, melt layers preserved in alpine glaciers present an opportunity to develop calibrated, annually-resolved temperature records from high elevations. We present a 400-year temperature record based on the melt-layer stratigraphy in two ice cores collected from Mt. Hunter in the Central Alaska Range. The ice core record shows a 60-fold increase in melt frequency and water equivalent melt thickness between the pre-industrial period (before 1850) and present day. We calibrate the melt record to summer temperatures based on local and regional weather station analyses, and find that the increase in melt production represents a summer warming of at least 2° C, exceeding rates of temperature increase at most low elevation sites in Alaska. The Mt. Hunter melt layer record is significantly (p<0.05) correlated with surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific through a Rossby-wave like pattern that induces high temperatures over Alaska. Our results show that rapid alpine warming has taken place in the Alaska Range for at least a century, and that conditions in the tropical oceans contribute to this warming.

Effect of warming temperatures on US wheat yields.

PubMed

Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Nalley, Lawton Lanier

2015-06-02

Climate change is expected to increase future temperatures, potentially resulting in reduced crop production in many key production regions. Research quantifying the complex relationship between weather variables and wheat yields is rapidly growing, and recent advances have used a variety of model specifications that differ in how temperature data are included in the statistical yield equation. A unique data set that combines Kansas wheat variety field trial outcomes for 1985-2013 with location-specific weather data is used to analyze the effect of weather on wheat yield using regression analysis. Our results indicate that the effect of temperature exposure varies across the September-May growing season. The largest drivers of yield loss are freezing temperatures in the Fall and extreme heat events in the Spring. We also find that the overall effect of warming on yields is negative, even after accounting for the benefits of reduced exposure to freezing temperatures. Our analysis indicates that there exists a tradeoff between average (mean) yield and ability to resist extreme heat across varieties. More-recently released varieties are less able to resist heat than older lines. Our results also indicate that warming effects would be partially offset by increased rainfall in the Spring. Finally, we find that the method used to construct measures of temperature exposure matters for both the predictive performance of the regression model and the forecasted warming impacts on yields.

Multi-model ensemble simulations of low flows in Europe under a 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marx, A.; Kumar, R.; Thober, S.; Zink, M.; Wanders, N.; Wood, E. F.; Pan, M.; Sheffield, J.; Samaniego, L. E.

2017-12-01

There is growing evidence that climate change will alter water availability in Europe. Here, we investigate how hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e., 1.5, 2 and 3 K). The analysis is based on a multi-model ensemble of 45 hydrological simulations based on three RCPs (rcp2p6, rcp6p0, rcp8p5), five CMIP5 GCMs (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) and three state-of-the-art hydrological models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, and PCR-GLOBWB). High resolution model results are available at the unprecedented spatial resolution of 5 km across the pan-European domain at daily temporal resolution. Low river flow is described as the percentile of daily streamflow that is exceeded 90% of the time. It is determined separately for each GCM/HM combinations and the warming scenarios. The results show that the change signal amplifies with increasing warming levels. Low flows decrease in the Mediterranean, while they increase in the Alpine and Northern regions. In the Mediterranean, the level of warming amplifies the signal from -12% under 1.5 K to -35% under 3 K global warming largely due to the projected decreases in annual precipitation. In contrast, the signal is amplified from +22% (1.5 K) to +45% (3 K) because of the reduced snow melt contribution. The changes in low flows are significant for regions with relatively large change signals and under higher levels of warming. Nevertheless, it is not possible to distinguish climate induced differences in low flows between 1.5 and 2 K warming because of the large variability inherent in the multi-model ensemble. The contribution by the GCMs to the uncertainty in the Alpine and Northern region as well as the Mediterranean, the uncertainty contribution by the HMs is partly higher than those by the GCMs due to different representations of processes such as snow, soil moisture and evapotranspiration.

Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jianbin; Zhang, Xiangdong; Zhang, Qiyi; Lin, Yanluan; Hao, Mingju; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Yao, Yao; Chen, Xin; Wang, Lei; Nie, Suping; Yin, Yizhou; Xu, Ying; Zhang, Jiansong

2017-12-01

The existence and magnitude of the recently suggested global warming hiatus, or slowdown, have been strongly debated1-3. Although various physical processes4-8 have been examined to elucidate this phenomenon, the accuracy and completeness of observational data that comprise global average surface air temperature (SAT) datasets is a concern9,10. In particular, these datasets lack either complete geographic coverage or in situ observations over the Arctic, owing to the sparse observational network in this area9. As a consequence, the contribution of Arctic warming to global SAT changes may have been underestimated, leading to an uncertainty in the hiatus debate. Here, we constructed a new Arctic SAT dataset using the most recently updated global SATs2 and a drifting buoys based Arctic SAT dataset11 through employing the `data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions' method12. Our estimate of global SAT rate of increase is around 0.112 °C per decade, instead of 0.05 °C per decade from IPCC AR51, for 1998-2012. Analysis of this dataset shows that the amplified Arctic warming over the past decade has significantly contributed to a continual global warming trend, rather than a hiatus or slowdown.

West African warming: Investigating Temperature Trends and their relation between Precipitation Trends over West African Sahel.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LY, M., Jr.

2014-12-01

It is now admitted that the West African region faces a lot of constraints due to the comprehensiveness of the high climate variability and potential climate change. This is mainly due to the lack of a large number of datasets and long-term records as summarized in the in the IPCC reports. This paper aims to provide improved knowledge and evidence on current and future climate conditions, for better manage climate variability over seasons and from year to year and strengthen the capacity to adapt to future climate change. In this regards, we analyse the evolution of some extreme temperature and precipitation indices over a large area of West Africa. Prior results show a general warming trend at individual stations throughout the region during the period from 1960 to 2010, namely negative trends in the number of cool nights, and positive trends in the number of warm days and length of warm spells. Trends in rainfall-related indices are not as uniform as the ones in temperatures, rather they display marked multi-decadal variability, as expected. To refine analyses of temperature variations and their relation to precipitation we investigated on cluster analysis aimed at distinguishing different sub-regions, such as continental and coastal, and relevant seasons, such as wet, dry/cold and dry warm. This will contribute to significantly lower uncertainties by developing better and more tailored temperature and precipitation trends to inform the user communities on climate related risks, as well as enhance their resilience to food insecurity and other climate related disasters.