The relationship of lightning activity and short-duration rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Fan; Cui, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Da-Lin; Qiao, Lin

2017-10-01

The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). An optimal radius of 10 km around selected AWSs is used to determine the lightning-rainfall relationship. The lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly, depending upon the intensity of SDR events. That is, correlation coefficient (R 0.7) for the short-duration heavy rainfall (SDHR, i.e., ≥ 20 mm h- 1) events is found higher than that (R 0.4) for the weak SDR (i.e., 5-10 mm h- 1) events, and lower percentage of the SDHR events (< 10%) than the weak SDR events (40-50%) are observed with few flashes. Significant time-lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. Those events with lightning preceding rainfall account for 50-60% of the total SDR events. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time lags are incorporated, with the use of total (CG and IC) lightning data. These results appear to have important implications for improving the nowcast of SDHR events.

ENSO relationship to Summer Rainfall Variability and its Potential Predictability over Arabian Peninsula Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adnan Abid, Mohammad; Almazroui, Mansour; Kucharski, Fred

2017-04-01

Summer seasonal rainfall falls mainly over the south and southwestern parts of the Arabian Peninsula (AP). The relationship between this mean summer seasonal rainfall pattern and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is analyzed with the aid of a 15-member ensemble of simulations using the King Abdulaziz University (KAU) Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM). Each simulation is forced with Hadley Sea Surface Temperature (SST) for the period 1980-2015. The southwestern peninsula rainfall is linked towith the SST anomalies in the central-eastern pacific region. This relation is established through an atmospheric teleconnection which shows an upper-level convergence (divergence) anomalies over the southern Arabian Peninsula compensating the central-eastern Pacific region upper-level divergence (convergence) anomalies for the warm (cold) El Niño Southern Oscillaton (ENSO) phase. The upper-level convergence (divergence) over the southern Arabian Peninsula leads to sinking (rising) motion, low-level divergence (convergence) and consequently to reduced (enhanced) rainfall. The correlation coefficient between the observed area-averged Niño3.4 index and athe South Arabian Rainfall Index (SARI) is -0.54. This indicates that AP receives less rainfall during the warm (El Niño) phase, while the opposite happens in the cold (La Niña) El Niño Southern Oscillaton (ENSO) phase. The lower tropospheric cyclonic circulation anomalies strongly modulate the ENSO-related rainfall in the region. Overall, the model shows a 43% potential predictability (PP) for the Southern Arabian Peninsula Rainfall Index (SARI). Further, the predictability during the warm ENSO (El Niño) events is higher than during cold ENSO (La Niña) events. This is not only because of a stronger signal, but also noise reduction contributes to the increase of the regional PP in El Niño compared to that of La Niña years.

Warming of the Indian Ocean Threatens Eastern and Southern Africa, but could be Mitigated by Agricultural Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Funk, Chris; Dettinger, Michael D.; Brown, Molly E.; Michaelsen, Joel C.; Verdin, James P.; Barlow, Mathew; Howell, Andrew

2008-01-01

Since 1980, the number of undernourished people in eastern and southern Africa has more than doubled. Rural development stalled and rural poverty expanded during the 1990s. Population growth remains very high and declining per capita agricultural capacity retards progress towards Millennium Development goals. Analyses of in situ station data and satellite observations of precipitation identify another problematic trend. Main growing season rainfall receipts have diminished by approximately 15% in food insecure countries clustered along the western rim of the Indian Ocean. Occurring during the main growing seasons in poor countries dependent on rain fed agriculture, these declines are societally dangerous. Will they persist or intensify? Tracing moisture deficits upstream to an anthropogenically warming Indian Ocean leads us to conclude that further rainfall declines are likely. We present analyses suggesting that warming in the central Indian Ocean disrupts onshore moisture transports, reducing continental rainfall. Thus late 20th century anthropogenic Indian Ocean warming has probably already produced societally dangerous climate change by creating drought and social disruption in some of the world's most fragile food economies. We quantify the potential impacts of the observed precipitation and agricultural capacity trends by modeling millions of undernourished people as a function of rainfall, population, cultivated area, seed and fertilizer use. Persistence of current tendencies may result in a 50% increase in undernourished people. On the other hand, modest increases in per capita agricultural productivity could more than offset the observed precipitation declines. Investing in agricultural development can help mitigate climate change while decreasing rural poverty and vulnerability.

Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development.

PubMed

Funk, Chris; Dettinger, Michael D; Michaelsen, Joel C; Verdin, James P; Brown, Molly E; Barlow, Mathew; Hoell, Andrew

2008-08-12

Since 1980, the number of undernourished people in eastern and southern Africa has more than doubled. Rural development stalled and rural poverty expanded during the 1990s. Population growth remains very high, and declining per-capita agricultural capacity retards progress toward Millennium Development goals. Analyses of in situ station data and satellite observations of precipitation have identified another problematic trend: main growing-season rainfall receipts have diminished by approximately 15% in food-insecure countries clustered along the western rim of the Indian Ocean. Occurring during the main growing seasons in poor countries dependent on rain-fed agriculture, these declines are societally dangerous. Will they persist or intensify? Tracing moisture deficits upstream to an anthropogenically warming Indian Ocean leads us to conclude that further rainfall declines are likely. We present analyses suggesting that warming in the central Indian Ocean disrupts onshore moisture transports, reducing continental rainfall. Thus, late 20th-century anthropogenic Indian Ocean warming has probably already produced societally dangerous climate change by creating drought and social disruption in some of the world's most fragile food economies. We quantify the potential impacts of the observed precipitation and agricultural capacity trends by modeling "millions of undernourished people" as a function of rainfall, population, cultivated area, seed, and fertilizer use. Persistence of current tendencies may result in a 50% increase in undernourished people by 2030. On the other hand, modest increases in per-capita agricultural productivity could more than offset the observed precipitation declines. Investing in agricultural development can help mitigate climate change while decreasing rural poverty and vulnerability.

Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development

PubMed Central

Funk, Chris; Dettinger, Michael D.; Michaelsen, Joel C.; Verdin, James P.; Brown, Molly E.; Barlow, Mathew; Hoell, Andrew

2008-01-01

Since 1980, the number of undernourished people in eastern and southern Africa has more than doubled. Rural development stalled and rural poverty expanded during the 1990s. Population growth remains very high, and declining per-capita agricultural capacity retards progress toward Millennium Development goals. Analyses of in situ station data and satellite observations of precipitation have identified another problematic trend: main growing-season rainfall receipts have diminished by ≈15% in food-insecure countries clustered along the western rim of the Indian Ocean. Occurring during the main growing seasons in poor countries dependent on rain-fed agriculture, these declines are societally dangerous. Will they persist or intensify? Tracing moisture deficits upstream to an anthropogenically warming Indian Ocean leads us to conclude that further rainfall declines are likely. We present analyses suggesting that warming in the central Indian Ocean disrupts onshore moisture transports, reducing continental rainfall. Thus, late 20th-century anthropogenic Indian Ocean warming has probably already produced societally dangerous climate change by creating drought and social disruption in some of the world's most fragile food economies. We quantify the potential impacts of the observed precipitation and agricultural capacity trends by modeling “millions of undernourished people” as a function of rainfall, population, cultivated area, seed, and fertilizer use. Persistence of current tendencies may result in a 50% increase in undernourished people by 2030. On the other hand, modest increases in per-capita agricultural productivity could more than offset the observed precipitation declines. Investing in agricultural development can help mitigate climate change while decreasing rural poverty and vulnerability. PMID:18685101

Breeding decisions and output are correlated with both temperature and rainfall in an arid-region passerine, the sociable weaver

PubMed Central

Paquet, Matthieu; Spottiswoode, Claire N.; Covas, Rita

2017-01-01

Animal reproductive cycles are commonly triggered by environmental cues of favourable breeding conditions. In arid environments, rainfall may be the most conspicuous cue, but the effects on reproduction of the high inter- and intra-annual variation in temperature remain poorly understood, despite being relevant to the current context of global warming. Here, we conducted a multiyear examination of the relationships between a suite of measures of temperature and rainfall, and the onset and length of the breeding season, the probability of breeding and reproductive output in an arid-region passerine, the sociable weaver (Philetairus socius). As expected, reproductive output increased with rainfall, yet specific relationships were conditional on the timing of rainfall: clutch production was correlated with rainfall throughout the season, whereas fledgling production was correlated with early summer rainfall. Moreover, we reveal novel correlations between aspects of breeding and temperature, indicative of earlier laying dates after warmer springs, and longer breeding seasons during cooler summers. These results have implications for understanding population trends under current climate change scenarios and call for more studies on the role of temperature in reproduction beyond those conducted on temperate-region species. PMID:28989782

Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951–2005 using a regional climate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Halder, Subhadeep; Saha, Subodh K.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.

Daily moderate rainfall events, which constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 through 2005. On the other hand, mean and extreme near-surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have increased by a maximum of 1–1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4) and prescribed land cover of years 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part of the changes in moderate rainfall events and temperature have been caused by land-use/land-cover change (LULCC), which is mostly anthropogenic. Model simulations show that the increase in seasonal mean and extreme temperature over centralmore » India coincides with the region of decrease in forest and increase in crop cover. Our results also show that LULCC alone causes warming in the extremes of daily mean and maximum temperatures by a maximum of 1–1.2 °C, which is comparable with the observed increasing trend in the extremes. Decrease in forest cover and simultaneous increase in crops not only reduces the evapotranspiration over land and large-scale convective instability, but also contributes toward decrease in moisture convergence through reduced surface roughness. These factors act together in reducing significantly the moderate rainfall events and the amount of rainfall in that category over central India. Additionally, the model simulations are repeated by removing the warming trend in sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean. As a result, enhanced warming at the surface and greater decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India compared to the earlier set of simulations are noticed. Results from these additional experiments corroborate our initial findings and confirm the contribution of LULCC in the decrease in moderate rainfall events and increase in daily mean and extreme temperature over India. Therefore, this study demonstrates the important implications of LULCC over India during the monsoon season. Although, the regional climate model helps in better resolving land–atmosphere feedbacks over the Indian region, the inferences do depend on the fidelity of the model in capturing the features of Indian monsoon realistically. Lastly, it is proposed that similar studies using a suite of climate models will further enrich our understanding about the role of LULCC in the Indian monsoon climate.« less

Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951–2005 using a regional climate model

DOE PAGES

Halder, Subhadeep; Saha, Subodh K.; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; ...

2016-05-10

Daily moderate rainfall events, which constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 through 2005. On the other hand, mean and extreme near-surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have increased by a maximum of 1–1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4) and prescribed land cover of years 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part of the changes in moderate rainfall events and temperature have been caused by land-use/land-cover change (LULCC), which is mostly anthropogenic. Model simulations show that the increase in seasonal mean and extreme temperature over centralmore » India coincides with the region of decrease in forest and increase in crop cover. Our results also show that LULCC alone causes warming in the extremes of daily mean and maximum temperatures by a maximum of 1–1.2 °C, which is comparable with the observed increasing trend in the extremes. Decrease in forest cover and simultaneous increase in crops not only reduces the evapotranspiration over land and large-scale convective instability, but also contributes toward decrease in moisture convergence through reduced surface roughness. These factors act together in reducing significantly the moderate rainfall events and the amount of rainfall in that category over central India. Additionally, the model simulations are repeated by removing the warming trend in sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean. As a result, enhanced warming at the surface and greater decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India compared to the earlier set of simulations are noticed. Results from these additional experiments corroborate our initial findings and confirm the contribution of LULCC in the decrease in moderate rainfall events and increase in daily mean and extreme temperature over India. Therefore, this study demonstrates the important implications of LULCC over India during the monsoon season. Although, the regional climate model helps in better resolving land–atmosphere feedbacks over the Indian region, the inferences do depend on the fidelity of the model in capturing the features of Indian monsoon realistically. Lastly, it is proposed that similar studies using a suite of climate models will further enrich our understanding about the role of LULCC in the Indian monsoon climate.« less

Global warming and South Indian monsoon rainfall-lessons from the Mid-Miocene.

PubMed

Reuter, Markus; Kern, Andrea K; Harzhauser, Mathias; Kroh, Andreas; Piller, Werner E

2013-04-01

Precipitation over India is driven by the Indian monsoon. Although changes in this atmospheric circulation are caused by the differential seasonal diabatic heating of Asia and the Indo-Pacific Ocean, it is so far unknown how global warming influences the monsoon rainfalls regionally. Herein, we present a Miocene pollen flora as the first direct proxy for monsoon over southern India during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. To identify climatic key parameters, such as mean annual temperature, warmest month temperature, coldest month temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean precipitation during the driest month, mean precipitation during the wettest month and mean precipitation during the warmest month the Coexistence Approach is applied. Irrespective of a ~ 3-4 °C higher global temperature during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum, the results indicate a modern-like monsoonal precipitation pattern contrasting marine proxies which point to a strong decline of Indian monsoon in the Himalaya at this time. Therefore, the strength of monsoon rainfall in tropical India appears neither to be related to global warming nor to be linked with the atmospheric conditions over the Tibetan Plateau. For the future it implies that increased global warming does not necessarily entail changes in the South Indian monsoon rainfall.

Rainfall seasonality on the Indian subcontinent during the Cretaceous greenhouse.

PubMed

Ghosh, Prosenjit; Prasanna, K; Banerjee, Yogaraj; Williams, Ian S; Gagan, Michael K; Chaudhuri, Atanu; Suwas, Satyam

2018-05-31

The Cretaceous greenhouse climate was accompanied by major changes in Earth's hydrological cycle, but seasonally resolved hydroclimatic reconstructions for this anomalously warm period are rare. We measured the δ 18 O and CO 2 clumped isotope Δ 47 of the seasonal growth bands in carbonate shells of the mollusc Villorita cyprinoides (Black Clam) growing in the Cochin estuary, in southern India. These tandem records accurately reconstruct seasonal changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and seawater δ 18 O, allowing us to document freshwater discharge into the estuary, and make inferences about rainfall amount. The same analytical approach was applied to well-preserved fossil remains of the Cretaceous (Early Maastrichtian) mollusc Phygraea (Phygraea) vesicularis from the nearby Kallankuruchchi Formation in the Cauvery Basin of southern India. The palaeoenvironmental record shows that, unlike present-day India, where summer rainfall predominates, most rainfall in Cretaceous India occurred in winter. During the Early Maastrichtian, the Indian plate was positioned at ~30°S latitude, where present-day rainfall and storm activity is also concentrated in winter. The good match of the Cretaceous climate and present-day climate at ~30°S suggests that the large-scale atmospheric circulation and seasonal hydroclimate patterns were similar to, although probably more intense than, those at present.

Climatological studies on precipitation features and large-scale atmospheric fields on the heavy rainfall days in the eastern part of Japan from the Baiu to midsummer season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsumoto, Kengo; Kato, Kuranoshin; Otani, Kazuo

2017-04-01

In East Asia the significant subtropical frontal zone called the Meiyu (in China) / Baiu (in Japan) appears in early summer (just before the midsummer) and the huge rainfall is brought due to the frequent appearance of the "heavy rainfall days" (referred to as HRDs hereafter) mainly in that western part. On the other hand, large-scale fields around the front in eastern Japan is rather different from that in western Japan but the total precipitation in the eastern Japan is still considerable compared to that in the other midlatitude regions. Thus, it is also interesting to examine how the rainfall characteristics and large-scale atmospheric fields on HRDs (with more than 50 mm/day) in the eastern Japan in the mature stage of the Baiu season (16 June 15 July), together with those in midsummer (1 31 August). Based on such scientific background, further analyses were performed in this study mainly with the daily and the hourly precipitation data and the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis date from 1971 to 2010, succeeding to our previous results (e.g., EGU2015). As reported at EGU2014 and 2015, about half of HRDs at Tokyo (eastern Japan) were related to the typhoon even in the Baiu season. Interestingly, half of HRDs were characterized by the large contribution of moderate rain less than 10 mm/h. While, the precipitation on HRDs at Tokyo in midsummer was mainly brought by the intense rainfall with more than 10 mm/h, in association with the typhoons. In the present study, we examined the composite meridional structure of the rainfall area along 140E. In the pattern only associated with a typhoons in the Baiu season (Pattern A), the heavy rainfall area (more than 50 mm/day) with large contribution of the intense rain (stronger than 10 mm/h) showed rather wide meridional extension. The area was characterized by the duration of the intermittent enhancement of the rainfall. In the pattern associated with a typhoon and a front (Pattern B), while the contribution ratio of the rainfall more than 10mm/h was large in the southern half of the heavy rainfall area, moderate rain with less than 10 mm/h contributed greatly to the total rainfall in the northern half. In Patter B, that heavy rainfall area was located just in the area with strong low-level warm advection around the Baiu front to the east of the typhoon. The warm advection near the heavy rainfall area was also found in Pattern A, the heavy rainfall occurred just on the southwest of the large advection. It is noted that, although the very warm humid air can intrude northward by the strong S-ly wind to the east of the typhoon in both Pattern A and B, the low-level baroclinicity around the eastern Japan was stronger in Pattern B. In midsummer, the similar situations to while the "Pattern B"-like situation was not seen. This might be greatly reflected by the seasonal change in the southern boundary of the Okhotsk air mass from the Baiu to midsummer and we will also examine that in the future.

Retrospective seasonal prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over West Central and Peninsular India in the past 142 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Juan; Wang, Bin; Yang, Young-Min

2017-04-01

Prediction of Indian summer (June-September) rainfall on regional scales remains an open issue. The operational predictions of West Central Indian summer rainfall (WCI-R) and Peninsular Indian summer rainfall (PI-R) made by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had no skills during 2004-2012. This motivates the present study aiming at better understanding the predictability sources and physical processes governing summer rainfall variability over these two regions. Analysis of 133 year data reveal that although the lower boundary forcing that associated with enhanced WCI-R and PI-R featured a similar developing La-Nina and "east high west low" sea-level pressure (SLP) dipole pattern across the Indo-Pacific, the anomalous high sea surface temperature (SST) over the northern Indian Ocean and weak low pressure over northern Asia tended to enhance PI-R but reduce WCI-R. Based on our understanding of physical linkages with the predictands, we selected four and two causative predictors for predictions of the WCI-R and PI-R, respectively. The intensified summer WCI-R is preceded by (a) Indian Ocean zonal dipole-like SST tendency (west-warming and east-cooling), (b) tropical Pacific zonal dipole SST tendency (west-warming and east-cooling), (c) central Pacific meridional dipole SST tendency (north-cooling and south-warming), and (d) decreasing SLP tendency over northern Asia in the previous season. The enhanced PI-R was lead by the central-eastern Pacific cooling and 2-m temperature cooling tendency east of Lake Balkhash in the previous seasons. These causative processes linking the predictors and WCI-R and PI-R are supported by ensemble numerical experiments using a coupled climate model. For the period of 1871-2012, the physics-based empirical (P-E) prediction models built on these predictors result in cross-validated forecast temporal correlation coefficient skills of 0.55 and 0.47 for WCI-R and PI-R, respectively. The independent forecast skill is significantly higher than the skill of operational seasonal forecast made by the IMD for the period of 2004-2012. These prediction models offer a tool for seasonal prediction and their retrospective forecast skills provide an estimation of the lower bound of the predictability for WCI-R and PI-R.

Human-induced changes in the distribution of rainfall

PubMed Central

Putnam, Aaron E.; Broecker, Wallace S.

2017-01-01

A likely consequence of global warming will be the redistribution of Earth’s rain belts, affecting water availability for many of Earth’s inhabitants. We consider three ways in which planetary warming might influence the global distribution of precipitation. The first possibility is that rainfall in the tropics will increase and that the subtropics and mid-latitudes will become more arid. A second possibility is that Earth’s thermal equator, around which the planet’s rain belts and dry zones are organized, will migrate northward. This northward shift will be a consequence of the Northern Hemisphere, with its large continental area, warming faster than the Southern Hemisphere, with its large oceanic area. A third possibility is that both of these scenarios will play out simultaneously. We review paleoclimate evidence suggesting that (i) the middle latitudes were wetter during the last glacial maximum, (ii) a northward shift of the thermal equator attended the abrupt Bølling-Allerød climatic transition ~14.6 thousand years ago, and (iii) a southward shift occurred during the more recent Little Ice Age. We also inspect trends in seasonal surface heating between the hemispheres over the past several decades. From these clues, we predict that there will be a seasonally dependent response in rainfall patterns to global warming. During boreal summer, in which the rate of recent warming has been relatively uniform between the hemispheres, wet areas will get wetter and dry regions will become drier. During boreal winter, rain belts and drylands will expand northward in response to differential heating between the hemispheres. PMID:28580418

Spatiotemporal trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices over Upper Tapi Basin, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Priyank J.; Loliyana, V. D.; S. R., Resmi; Timbadiya, P. V.; Patel, P. L.

2017-12-01

The flood risk across the globe is intensified due to global warming and subsequent increase in extreme temperature and precipitation. The long-term trends in extreme rainfall (1944-2013) and temperature (1969-2012) indices have been investigated at annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales using nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen's slope estimator tests. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI), have been analyzed at finer spatial scales for trend detection. The results of trend analyses indicate decreasing trend in annual total rainfall, significant decreasing trend in rainy days, and increasing trend in rainfall intensity over the basin. The seasonal rainfall has been found to decrease for all the seasons except postmonsoon, which could affect the rain-fed agriculture in the basin. The 1- and 5-day annual maximum rainfalls exhibit mixed trends, wherein part of the basin experiences increasing trend, while other parts experience a decreasing trend. The increase in dry spells and concurrent decrease in wet spells are also observed over the basin. The extreme temperature indices revealed increasing trends in hottest and coldest days, while decreasing trends in coldest night are found over most parts of the basin. Further, the diurnal temperature range is also found to increase due to warming tendency in maximum temperature (T max) at a faster rate compared to the minimum temperature (T min). The increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall in the basin has been attributed to the increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures, reducing forest cover, rapid pace of urbanization, increase in human population, and thereby increase in the aerosol content in the atmosphere. The findings of the present study would significantly help in sustainable water resource planning, better decision-making for policy framework, and setting up infrastructure against flood disasters in Upper Tapi Basin, India.

Variability and trends of wet season temperature in the Sudano-Sahelian zone and relationships with precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oueslati, Boutheina; Camberlin, Pierre; Zoungrana, Joël; Roucou, Pascal; Diallo, Saliou

2018-02-01

The relationships between precipitation and temperature in the central Sudano-Sahelian belt are investigated by analyzing 50 years (1959-2008) of observed temperature (Tx and Tn) and rainfall variations. At daily time-scale, both Tx and Tn show a marked decrease as a response to rainfall occurrence, with a strongest departure from normal 1 day after the rainfall event (-0.5 to -2.5 °C depending on the month). The cooling is slightly larger when heavy rainfall events (>5 mm) are considered. The temperature anomalies weaken after the rainfall event, but are still significant several days later. The physical mechanisms accounting for the temperature response to precipitation are analysed. The Tx drop is accounted for by reduced incoming solar radiation associated with increased cloud cover and increased surface evaporation following surface moistening. The effect of evaporation becomes dominant a few days after the rainfall event. The reduced daytime heat storage and the subsequent sensible heat flux result in a later negative Tn anomaly. The effect of rainfall variations on temperature is significant for long-term warming trends. The rainfall decrease experienced between 1959 and 2008 accounts for a rainy season Tx increase of 0.15 to 0.3 °C, out of a total Tx increase of 1.3 to 1.5 °C. These results have strong implications on the assessment of future temperature changes. The dampening or amplifying effects of precipitation are determined by the sign of future precipitation trends. Confidence on temperature changes under global warming partly depend on the robustness of precipitation projections.

Climate change in Lagos state, Nigeria: what really changed?

PubMed

Sojobi, Adebayo Olatunbosun; Balogun, Isaac Idowu; Salami, Adebayo Wahab

2015-10-01

Our study revealed periodicities of 2.3 and 2.25 years in wet and dry seasons and periodicities of 2 to 5 years on seasonal and annual timescales. Minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax) and evaporation recorded increases of 2.47, 1.37 and 28.37 %, respectively, but a reduction of 19.58 % in rainfall on decadal timescale. Periodicity of 8 to 12 years was also observed in annual Tmax. Cramer's test indicated a warming trend with significant Tmax increase in February, April, July, August, October and November during 2000-2009 on decadal monthly timescale, a significant decline in Summer rainfall but significant Tmax increase in Spring, Autumn and Winter on decadal seasonal timescale. The low correlation of rainfall with temperature parameters and evaporation indicates that advection of moisture into Lagos State seems to be the dominant mechanism controlling rainfall within the State alongside other tropical and extra-tropical factors. In addition, our study revealed that the persistent state of minimum temperature often precedes the arrival and reversal of the phase of maximum temperature. Furthermore, our study also revealed that extreme and high variable rainfalls, which are associated with the increased warming trend, had periodicities of 1 to 3 years with a probability of 86.45 % of occurring every 3 years between April and September. It is recommended that government and private sector should give financial and technical supports to climate researches in order to appropriately inform policy making to improve the adaptive capacity and resilience of Lagos State against climate change impacts and guard against maladaptation.

Climate influence on dengue epidemics in Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Jury, Mark R

2008-10-01

The variability of the insect-borne disease dengue in Puerto Rico was studied in relation to climatic variables in the period 1979-2005. Annual and monthly reported dengue cases were compared with precipitation and temperature data. Results show that the incidence of dengue in Puerto Rico was relatively constant over time despite global warming, possibly due to the offsetting effects of declining rainfall, improving health care and little change in population. Seasonal fluctuations of dengue were driven by rainfall increases from May to November. Year-to-year variability in dengue cases was positively related to temperature, but only weakly associated with local rainfall and an index of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Climatic conditions were mapped with respect to dengue cases and patterns in high and low years were compared. During epidemics, a low pressure system east of Florida draws warm humid air over the northwestern Caribbean. Long-term trends in past observed and future projected rainfall and temperatures were studied. Rainfall has declined slowly, but temperatures in the Caribbean are rising with the influence of global warming. Thus, dengue may increase in the future, and it will be necessary to anticipate dengue epidemics using climate forecasts, to reduce adverse health impacts.

Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Chris C.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Michaelsen, Joel C.; Verdin, James P.; Brown, Molly E.; Barlow, Mathew; Hoell, Andrew

2008-01-01

Since 1980, the number of undernourished people in eastern and southern Africa has more than doubled. Rural development stalled and rural poverty expanded during the 1990s. Population growth remains very high, and declining per-capita agricultural capacity retards progress toward Millennium Development goals. Analyses of in situ station data and satellite observations of precipitation have identified another problematic trend: main growing-season rainfall receipts have diminished by ???15% in food-insecure countries clustered along the western rim of the Indian Ocean. Occurring during the main growing seasons in poor countries dependent on rain-fed agriculture, these declines are societally dangerous. Will they persist or intensify? Tracing moisture deficits upstream to an anthropogenically warming Indian Ocean leads us to conclude that further rainfall declines are likely. We present analyses suggesting that warming in the central Indian Ocean disrupts onshore moisture transports, reducing continental rainfall. Thus, late 20th-century anthropogenic Indian Ocean warming has probably already produced societally dangerous climate change by creating drought and social disruption in some of the world's most fragile food economies. We quantify the potential impacts of the observed precipitation and agricultural capacity trends by modeling 'millions of undernourished people' as a function of rainfall, population, cultivated area, seed, and fertilizer use. Persistence of current tendencies may result in a 50% increase in undernourished people by 2030. On the other hand, modest increases in per-capita agricultural productivity could more than offset the observed precipitation declines. Investing in agricultural development can help mitigate climate change while decreasing rural poverty and vulnerability. ?? 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

Cloud-to-ground lightning and surface rainfall in warm-season Florida thunderstorms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gungle, B.; Krider, E.P.

2006-01-01

Relationships between cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning and surface rainfall have been examined in nine isolated, warm-season thunderstorms on the east coast of central Florida. CG flashes and the associated rain volumes were measured as a function of time in storm-centered reference frames that followed each storm over a network of rain gauges. Values of the storm-average rain volume per CG flash ranged from 0.70 ?? 104 to 6.4 ?? 104 m3/CG flash, with a mean (and standard deviation) of 2.6 ?? 104 ?? 2.1 ?? 104 m3/CG flash. Values of the rain volume concurrent with CG flashes ranged from 0.11 ?? 104 to 4.9 ?? 104 m3/CG flash with a mean of 2.1 ?? 104 ?? 2.0 ?? 104 m3/CG flash. The lag-time between the peak CG flash rate and the peak rainfall rate (using 5 min bins), and the results of a lag correlation analysis, show that surface rainfall tends to follow the lightning (positive lag) by up to 20 min in six storms. In one storm the rainfall preceded the lightning by 5 min, and two storms had nonsignificant lags. Values of the lagged rain volume concurrent with CG flashes ranged from 0.43 ?? 104 to 4.9 ?? 104 m3/CG flash, and the mean was 1.9 ?? 104 ?? 1.7 ?? 104 m3/CG flash. For the five storms that produced 12 or more flashes and had significant lags, a plot of the optimum lag time versus the total number of CG flashes shows a linear trend (R2 = 0.56). The number of storms is limited, but the lag results do indicate that large storms tend to have longer lags. A linear fit to the lagged rain volume vs. the number of concurrent CG flashes has a slope of 1.9 ?? 104 m3/CG flash (R2 = 0.83). We conclude that warm-season Florida thunderstorms produce a roughly constant rain volume per CG flash and that CG lightning can be used to estimate the location and intensity of convective rainfall in that weather regime. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature influences on failed consecutive rainy seasons over eastern Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Christopher C.

2014-01-01

Rainfall over eastern Africa (10°S–10°N; 35°E–50°E) is bimodal, with seasonal maxima during the "long rains" of March–April–May (MAM) and the "short rains" of October–November–December (OND). Below average precipitation during consecutive long and short rains seasons over eastern Africa can have devastating long-term impacts on water availability and agriculture. Here, we examine the forcing of drought during consecutive long and short rains seasons over eastern Africa by Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The forcing of eastern Africa precipitation and circulation by SSTs is tested using ten ensemble simulations of a global weather forecast model forced by 1950–2010 observed global SSTs. Since the 1980s, Indo-Pacific SSTs have forced more frequent droughts spanning consecutive long and short rains seasons over eastern Africa. The increased frequency of dry conditions is linked to warming SSTs over the Indo-west Pacific and to a lesser degree to Pacific Decadal Variability. During MAM, long-term warming of tropical west Pacific SSTs from 1950–2010 has forced statistically significant precipitation reductions over eastern Africa. The warming west Pacific SSTs have forced changes in the regional lower tropospheric circulation by weakening the Somali Jet, which has reduced moisture and rainfall over the Horn of Africa. During OND, reductions in precipitation over recent decades are oftentimes overshadowed by strong year-to-year precipitation variability forced by the Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Can Regional Climate Models Improve Warm Season Forecasts in the North American Monsoon Region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, F.; Castro, C. L.

2009-12-01

The goal of this work is to improve warm season forecasts in the North American Monsoon Region. To do this, we are dynamically downscaling warm season CFS (Climate Forecast System) reforecasts from 1982-2005 for the contiguous U.S. using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model. CFS is the global coupled ocean-atmosphere model used by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a branch of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), to provide official U.S. seasonal climate forecasts. Recently, NCEP has produced a comprehensive long-term retrospective ensemble CFS reforecasts for the years 1980-2005. These reforecasts show that CFS model 1) has an ability to forecast tropical Pacific SSTs and large-scale teleconnection patterns, at least as evaluated for the winter season; 2) has greater skill in forecasting winter than summer climate; and 3) demonstrates an increase in skill when a greater number of ensembles members are used. The decrease in CFS skill during the warm season is due to the fact that the physical mechanisms of rainfall at this time are more related to mesoscale processes, such as the diurnal cycle of convection, low-level moisture transport, propagation and organization of convection, and surface moisture recycling. In general, these are poorly represented in global atmospheric models. Preliminary simulations for years with extreme summer climate conditions in the western and central U.S. (specifically 1988 and 1993) show that CFS-WRF simulations can provide a more realistic representation of convective rainfall processes. Thus a RCM can potentially add significant value in climate forecasting of the warm season provided the downscaling methodology incorporates the following: 1) spectral nudging to preserve the variability in the large scale circulation while still permitting the development of smaller-scale variability in the RCM; and 2) use of realistic soil moisture initial condition, in this case provided by the North American Regional Reanalysis. With these conditions, downscaled CFS-WRF reforecast simulations can produce realistic continental-scale patterns of warm season precipitation. This includes a reasonable representation of the North American monsoon in the southwest U.S. and northwest Mexico, which is notoriously difficult to represent in a global atmospheric model. We anticipate that this research will help lead the way toward substantially improved real time operational forecasts of North American summer climate with a RCM.

Tropical Cyclones Feed More Heavy Rain in a Warmer Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Zhou, Y. P.; Wu, H.-T.

2007-01-01

The possible linkage of tropical cyclones (TC) to global warming is a hotly debated scientific topic, with immense societal impacts. Most of the debate has been focused on the issue of uncertainty in the use of non-research quality data for long-term trend analyses, especially with regard to TC intensity provided by TC forecasting centers. On the other hand, it is well known that TCs are associated with heavy rain during the processes of genesis and intensification, and that there are growing evidences that rainfall characteristics (not total rainfall) are most likely to be affected by global warming. Yet, satellite rainfall data have not been exploited in any recent studies of linkage between tropical cyclones (TC) and global warming. This is mostly due to the large uncertainties associated with detection of long-term trend in satellite rainfall estimates over the ocean. This problem, as we demonstrate in this paper, can be alleviated by examining rainfall distribution, rather than rainfall total. This paper is the first to use research-quality, satellite-derived rainfall from TRMM and GPCP over the tropical oceans to estimate shift in rainfall distribution during the TC season, and its relationships with TCs, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the two major ocean basins, the northern Atlantic and the northern Pacific for 1979-2005. From the rainfall distribution, we derive the TC contributions to rainfall in various extreme rainfall categories as a function to time. Our results show a definitive trend indicating that TCs are contributing increasingly to heavier rain events, i.e., intense TC's are more frequent in the last 27 years. The TC contribution to top 5% heavy rain has nearly doubled in the last two decades in the North Atlantic, and has increased by about 10% in the North Pacific. The different rate of increase in TC contribution to heavy rain may be related to the different rates of different rate of expansion of the warm pool (SST >2S0 C) area in the two oceans.

Enhanced future variability during India's rainy season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menon, Arathy; Levermann, Anders; Schewe, Jacob

2013-04-01

The Indian summer monsoon shapes the livelihood of a large share of the world's population. About 80% of annual precipitation over India occurs during the monsoon season from June through September. Next to its seasonal mean rainfall the day-to-day variability is crucial for the risk of flooding, national water supply and agricultural productivity. Here we show that the latest ensemble of climate model simulations, prepared for the IPCC's AR-5, consistently projects significant increases in day-to-day rainfall variability under unmitigated climate change. While all models show an increase in day-to-day variability, some models are more realistic in capturing the observed seasonal mean rainfall over India than others. While no model's monsoon rainfall exceeds the observed value by more than two standard deviations, half of the models simulate a significantly weaker monsoon than observed. The relative increase in day-to-day variability by the year 2100 ranges from 15% to 48% under the strongest scenario (RCP-8.5), in the ten models which capture seasonal mean rainfall closest to observations. The variability increase per degree of global warming is independent of the scenario in most models, and is 8% +/- 4% per K on average. This consistent projection across 20 comprehensive climate models provides confidence in the results and suggests the necessity of profound adaptation measures in the case of unmitigated climate change.

Thermodynamic sensitivities in observed and simulated extreme-rain-producing mesoscale convective systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumacher, R. S.; Peters, J. M.

2015-12-01

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are responsible for a large fraction of warm-season extreme rainfall events over the continental United States, as well as other midlatitude regions globally. The rainfall production in these MCSs is determined by numerous factors, including the large-scale forcing for ascent, the organization of the convection, cloud microphysical processes, and the surrounding thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Furthermore, heavy-rain-producing MCSs are most common at night, which means that well-studied mechanisms for MCS maintenance and organization such as cold pools (gravity currents) are not always at work. In this study, we use numerical model simulations and recent field observations to investigate the sensitivity of low-level MCS structures, and their influences on rainfall, to the details of the thermodynamic environment. In particular, small alterations to the initial conditions in idealized and semi-idealized simulations result in comparatively large precipitation changes, both in terms of the intensity and the spatial distribution. The uncertainties in the thermodynamic enviroments in the model simulations will be compared with high-resolution observations from the Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) field experiment in 2015. The results have implications for the paradigms of "surface-based" versus "elevated" convection, as well as for the predictability of warm-season convective rainfall.

Coherent variability between seasonal temperatures and rainfalls in the Iberian Peninsula, 1951-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.

2018-02-01

In this work trends of seasonal mean of daily minimum (TN), maximum (TX), mean (TM) temperatures, daily range of temperature (DTR), and total seasonal rainfall (R) in 35 Iberian stations since mid-twentieth century are studied. The interest is focused on the relationships between temperature variables and rainfall, taking into account the correlation coefficients between R and the temperature variables. The negative link between rainfall and temperatures is detected in the four seasons of the year, except in western stations in winter for TN and TM, and in autumn for TN (for this variable a certain annual cycle is detected, with predominance of positive correlation in winter, negative in spring and summer, and the autumn as transition season). The role of cloud cover is confirmed in those stations with total cloud cover data. Using an average peninsular series, the relationship between nighttime temperature and rainfall related to long wave radiation is confirmed for the four seasons of the year, although in spring and summer has minor importance than in the cold half year. The relationships between R, TN, and TX are in general terms stable after a moving correlation analysis, although the negative correlation between TX and R seems be weakened in spring and autumn and reinforced in summer. The role of convective precipitation in autumn is discussed. The analysis of combined extreme indices in four representative stations shows an increase of warm and dry days, and a decrease of cold and wet days.

Prediction of Meiyu rainfall in Taiwan by multi-lead physical-empirical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yim, So-Young; Wang, Bin; Xing, Wen; Lu, Mong-Ming

2015-06-01

Taiwan is located at the dividing point of the tropical and subtropical monsoons over East Asia. Taiwan has double rainy seasons, the Meiyu in May-June and the Typhoon rains in August-September. To predict the amount of Meiyu rainfall is of profound importance to disaster preparedness and water resource management. The seasonal forecast of May-June Meiyu rainfall has been a challenge to current dynamical models and the factors controlling Taiwan Meiyu variability has eluded climate scientists for decades. Here we investigate the physical processes that are possibly important for leading to significant fluctuation of the Taiwan Meiyu rainfall. Based on this understanding, we develop a physical-empirical model to predict Taiwan Meiyu rainfall at a lead time of 0- (end of April), 1-, and 2-month, respectively. Three physically consequential and complementary predictors are used: (1) a contrasting sea surface temperature (SST) tendency in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, (2) the tripolar SST tendency in North Atlantic that is associated with North Atlantic Oscillation, and (3) a surface warming tendency in northeast Asia. These precursors foreshadow an enhanced Philippine Sea anticyclonic anomalies and the anomalous cyclone near the southeastern China in the ensuing summer, which together favor increasing Taiwan Meiyu rainfall. Note that the identified precursors at various lead-times represent essentially the same physical processes, suggesting the robustness of the predictors. The physical empirical model made by these predictors is capable of capturing the Taiwan rainfall variability with a significant cross-validated temporal correlation coefficient skill of 0.75, 0.64, and 0.61 for 1979-2012 at the 0-, 1-, and 2-month lead time, respectively. The physical-empirical model concept used here can be extended to summer monsoon rainfall prediction over the Southeast Asia and other regions.

Observed changes in extremes of daily rainfall and temperature in Jemma Sub-Basin, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worku, Gebrekidan; Teferi, Ermias; Bantider, Amare; Dile, Yihun T.

2018-02-01

Climate variability has been a threat to the socio-economic development of Ethiopia. This paper examined the changes in rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature extremes of Jemma Sub-Basin of the Upper Blue Nile Basin for the period of 1981 to 2014. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall, seasonal Mann-Kendall, and Sen's slope estimator were used to estimate annual trends. Ten rainfall and 12 temperature indices were used to study changes in rainfall and temperature extremes. The results showed an increasing trend of annual and summer rainfall in more than 78% of the stations and a decreasing trend of spring rainfall in most of the stations. An increase in rainfall extreme events was detected in the majority of the stations. Several rainfall extreme indices showed wetting trends in the sub-basin, whereas limited indices indicated dryness in most of the stations. Annual maximum and minimum temperature and extreme temperature indices showed warming trend in the sub-basin. Presence of extreme rainfall and a warming trend of extreme temperature indices may suggest signs of climate change in the Jemma Sub-Basin. This study, therefore, recommended the need for exploring climate induced risks and implementing appropriate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Estimating probabilistic rainfall and food security outcomes for eastern and southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdin, J.; Funk, C.; Dettinger, M.; Brown, M.

2009-05-01

Since 1980, the number of undernourished people in eastern and southern Africa has more than doubled. Rural development stalled and rural poverty expanded during the 1990s. Population growth remains high, and declining per-capita agricultural capacity retards development. In September of 2008, Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, and Somalia faced high or extreme conditions of food insecurity caused by repeated droughts and rapid food price inflation. In this talk we present research, performed for the US Agency for International Development on probabilistic projections of rainfall and food security trends for eastern and southern Africa. Analyses of station data and satellite-based estimates of precipitation have identified another problematic trend: main growing- season rainfall has diminished by ~15% in food-insecure countries clustered along the western rim of the Indian Ocean. Occurring during the main growing seasons in poor countries dependent on rain-fed agriculture, these declines constitute a long term danger to subsistence agricultural and pastoral livelihoods. Tracing moisture deficits upstream to an anthropogenically-induced warming Indian Ocean leads us to conclude that further rainfall declines are likely. We present analyses suggesting that warming in the central Indian Ocean disrupts onshore moisture transports, reducing continental rainfall. Thus, late 20th century Indian Ocean warming has probably already produced societally dangerous climate change by creating drought and social disruption in some of the world's most fragile food economies. We quantify the potential impacts of the observed precipitation and agricultural capacity trends by modeling millions of undernourished people as a function of rainfall, population, cultivated area, and seed and fertilizer use. Persistence of current trends may result in a 50% increase in undernourished people. On the other hand, modest increases in per-capita agricultural productivity could more than offset the observed precipitation declines. Increased investment in agricultural development would help mitigate climate change while decreasing rural poverty and vulnerability.

Changes to Sub-daily Rainfall Patterns in a Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westra, S.; Evans, J. P.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

2012-12-01

An algorithm is developed for disaggregating daily rainfall into sub-daily rainfall 'fragments' (continuous high temporal-resolution rainfall sequences whose total depth sums to the daily rainfall amount) under a future, warmer climate. The basis of the algorithm is to re-sample sub-daily fragments from the historical record conditional on the total daily rainfall amount and a range of temperature-based atmospheric predictors. The logic is that as the atmosphere warms, future rainfall patterns will be more reflective of historical rainfall patterns which occurred on warmer days at the same location, or at locations which have an atmospheric temperature profile more representative of expected future atmospheric conditions. It was found that the daily to sub-daily scaling relationship varied significantly by season and by location, with rainfall patterns on warmer seasons or at warmer locations typically exhibiting higher rainfall intensity occurring over shorter periods within a day, compared with cooler seasons and locations. Importantly, by regressing against temperature-based atmospheric covariates, this effect was substantially reduced, suggesting that the approach also may be valid when extrapolating to a future climate. An adjusted method of fragments algorithm was then applied to nine stations around Australia, with the results showing that when holding total daily rainfall constant, the maximum intensity of short duration rainfall increased by a median of about 5% per degree for the maximum 6 minute burst, and 3.5% for the maximum one hour burst, whereas the fraction of the day with no rainfall increased by a median of 1.5%. This highlights that a large proportion of the change to the distribution of rainfall is likely to occur at sub-daily timescales, with significant implications for many hydrological systems.

Climatic and ecological future of the Amazon: likelihood and causes of change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, B.; Zeng, N.; Yoon, J.-H.

2010-05-01

Some recent climate modeling results suggested a possible dieback of the Amazon rainforest under future climate change, a prediction that raised considerable interest as well as controversy. To determine the likelihood and causes of such changes, we analyzed the output of 15 models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR4) and a dynamic vegetation model VEGAS driven by these climate output. Our results suggest that the core of the Amazon rainforest should remain largely stable as rainfall is projected to increase in nearly all models. However, the periphery, notably the southern edge of the Amazon and further south in central Brazil, are in danger of drying out, driven by two main processes. Firstly, a decline in precipitation of 22% in the southern Amazon's dry season (May-September) reduces soil moisture, despite an increase in precipitation during the wet season, due to nonlinear responses in hydrology and ecosystem dynamics. Two dynamical mechanisms may explain the lower dry season rainfall: (1) a general subtropical drying under global warming when the dry season southern Amazon is under the control of the subtropical high pressure; (2) a stronger north-south tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient, and to lesser degree a warmer eastern equatorial Pacific. Secondly, evaporation demand will increase due to the general warming, further reducing soil moisture. In terms of ecosystem response, higher maintenance cost and reduced productivity under warming may also have additional adverse impact. The drying corresponds to a lengthening of the dry season by 11 days. As a consequence, the median of the models projects a reduction of 20% in vegetation carbon stock in the southern Amazon, central Brazil, and parts of the Andean Mountains. Further, VEGAS predicts enhancement of fire risk by 10-15%. The increase in fire is primarily due to the reduction in soil moisture, and the decrease in dry season rainfall, which is when fire danger reaches its peak. Because the southern Amazon is also under intense human influence as a result of deforestation and land use, added pressure to the region's ecosystems from climate change may subject the region to profound changes in the 21st century.

Potential impact of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on consecutive dry and wet days over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ama Browne Klutse, Nana; Ajayi, Vincent O.; Olabode Gbobaniyi, Emiola; Egbebiyi, Temitope S.; Kouadio, Kouakou; Nkrumah, Francis; Akumenyi Quagraine, Kwesi; Olusegun, Christiana; Diasso, Ulrich; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Lawal, Kamoru; Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Christopher; Dosio, Alessandro

2018-05-01

We examine the impact of +1.5 °C and +2 °C global warming levels above pre-industrial levels on consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD), two key indicators for extreme precipitation and seasonal drought. This is done using climate projections from a multi-model ensemble of 25 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The RCMs take boundary conditions from ten global climate models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 scenario. We define CDD as the maximum number of consecutive days with rainfall amount less than 1 mm and CWD as the maximum number of consecutive days with rainfall amount more than 1 mm. The differences in model representations of the change in CDD and CWD, at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming, and based on the control period 1971‑2000 are reported. The models agree on a noticeable response to both 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming for each index. Enhanced warming results in a reduction in mean rainfall across the region. More than 80% of ensemble members agree that CDD will increase over the Guinea Coast, in tandem with a projected decrease in CWD at both 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. These projected changes may influence already fragile ecosystems and agriculture in the region, both of which are strongly affected by mean rainfall and the length of wet and dry periods.

Central American Climatology

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-04-01

Central America, as where mean temperatures are relatively warm throughout the year de- so spite seasonal rainfall changes. 75 Elevation, solar angle...November 1982 Control Hidalgo Anos.1952-1963, Republica de Nicaragua, Ministerio de Formento Y O0.PP, Comision Nacional de Energia . Craig, Richard A., The

Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.

1997-01-01

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an eleven year period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared to those for non-tropical cyclone systems. The main results of this study indicate that: 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maxima in tropical cyclone rainfall are poleward (5 deg to 10 deg latitude depending on longitude) of the maxima in non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% of the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the ITCZ; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Nino years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.

2000-10-01

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an 11-yr period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and interannual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important.To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444-km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain-rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared with those for nontropical cyclone systems.The main results of this study indicate that 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maximum tropical cyclone rainfall is poleward (5°-10° latitude depending on longitude) of the maximum nontropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% off the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the Intertropical Convergence Zone; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Niño years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

The relationship of lightning activity and short-duation rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, F.; Cui, X.; Zhang, D. L.; Lin, Q.

2017-12-01

The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). To facilitate the analysis of the rainfall-lightning correlations, the SDR events are categorized into six different intensity grades according to their hourly rainfall rates (HRRs), and an optimal radius of 10 km from individual AWSs for counting their associated lightning flashes is used. Results show that the lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly with different intensity grades. Weak correlations (R 0.4) are found in the weak SDR events, and 40-50% of the events are no-flash ones. And moderate correlation (R 0.6) are found in the moderate SDR events, and > 10-20% of the events are no-flash ones. In contrast, high correlations (R 0.7) are obtained in the SDHR events, and < 10% of the events are no-flash ones. The results indicate that lightning activity is observed more frequently and correlated more robust with the rainfall in the SDHR events. Significant time lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. The percentages of SDR events with CG or total lightning activity preceding, lagging or coinciding with rainfall shows that (i) in about 55% of the SDR events lightning flashes preceded rainfall; (ii) the SDR events with lightning flashes lagging behind rainfall accounted for about 30%; and (iii) the SDR events without any time shifts accounted for the remaining 15%. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time lags are incorporated, with the use of total (CG and IC) lightning data. These results appear to have important implications to improving the nowcast of SDHR events.

20th-Century Climate Change over Africa: Seasonal Variation in Hydroclimate Trends and Sahara Desert Extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

2017-12-01

Twentieth-century trends in seasonal temperature and precipitation over the African continent are analyzed from observational data sets and historical climate simulations. Given the agricultural economy of the continent, a seasonal perspective is adopted as it is more pertinent than an annual-average one which can mask off-setting but agriculturally-sensitive seasonal hydroclimate variations. Examination of linear trends in seasonal surface air temperature (SAT) shows that heat stress has increased in several regions, including Sudan and Northern Africa where largest SAT trends occur in the warm season. Broadly speaking, the northern continent has warmed more than the southern one in all seasons. Precipitation trends are varied but notable declining trends are found in the countries along the Gulf of Guinea, especially in the source region of Niger river in West Africa, and in the Congo river basin. Rainfall over the African Great Lakes - one of the largest freshwater repositories - has however increased. We show that the Sahara Desert has expanded significantly over the 20th century - by 12-20% depending on the season. The desert expanded southward in summer, reflecting retreat of the northern edge of the Sahel rainfall belt; and to the north in winter, indicating potential impact of the widening of the Tropics. Specific mechanisms driving the expansion in each season are investigated. Finally, this observational analysis is used to evaluate the state-of-the-art climate models from a comparison of the 20th-century hydroclimate trends with those manifest in historical climate simulations. The evaluation shows that modeling regional hydroclimate change over the Africa continent remains challenging.

Precipitation Anomalies in Southern Brazil Associated with El Niño and La Niña Events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimm, Alice M.; Ferraz, Simone E. T.; Gomes, Júlio

1998-11-01

The impact of El Niño and La Niña events (warm and cold phases of the Southern Oscillation) on rainfall over southern Brazil is investigated through the use of a large dataset of monthly precipitation from 250 stations. This region is partly dominated by rough orography and presents different climatic regimes of rainfall. As previous global studies on Southern Oscillation-precipitation relationships used data from only two stations in southern Brazil, this region was not included in the area of consistent Southern Oscillation-related precipitation in southeastern South America. The present analysis is based on the method by Ropelewski and Halpert, the sensitivity of which is assessed for this region. The spatial structure of the rainfall anomalies associated with warm (cold) events is analyzed and subregions with coherent anomalies are determined. Their distribution indicates the influence of relief, latitude, and proximity to the ocean. These areas are subjected to further analysis to determine the seasons of largest anomalies and assess their consistency during warm (cold) events.The whole of southern Brazil was found to have strong and consistent precipitation anomalies associated with those events. Their magnitude is even larger than in Argentina and Uruguay. All of the subregions have consistent wet anomalies during the austral spring of the warm event year, with a pronounced peak in November. The southeastern part also shows a consistent tendency to higher than average rainfall during the austral winter of the following year. There is also a consistent tendency to dryness in the year before a warm event. During the spring of cold event years strong consistent dry anomalies prevail over the whole region, also with maximum magnitude in November. They are even stronger and more consistent than the wet anomalies in warm event years. Consistent anomalies do not occur over large areas in the years before and after cold events. The wet anomalies during the austral spring of the warm event year weaken and even reverse during the following January. The same tendency, though not so clear, is observable in the dry anomalies of cold events. The seasons of largest anomalies disclosed by this study differ from those found by previous global studies for other regions in southeastern South America.This study expands the area of consistent warm (cold) event-related precipitation defined by previous studies in southeastern South America by including a region of larger anomalies, and provides a spatial and temporal refinement to the warm (cold) event-precipitation relationship.

Mapping the Impact of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions on Cloud Formation and Warm-season Rainfall in Mountainous Regions Using Observations and Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Yajuan

Light rainfall (< 3 mm/hr) amounts to 30-70% of the annual water budget in the Southern Appalachian Mountains (SAM), a mid-latitude mid-mountain system in the SE CONUS. Topographic complexity favors the diurnal development of regional-scale convergence patterns that provide the moisture source for low-level clouds and fog (LLCF). Low-level moisture and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are distributed by ridge-valley circulations favoring LLCF formation that modulate the diurnal cycle of rainfall especially the mid-day peak. The overarching objective of this dissertation is to advance the quantitative understanding of the indirect effect of aerosols on the diurnal cycle of LLCF and warm-season precipitation in mountainous regions generally, and in the SAM in particular, for the purpose of improving the representation of orographic precipitation processes in remote sensing retrievals and physically-based models. The research approach consists of integrating analysis of in situ observations from long-term observation networks and an intensive field campaign, multi-sensor satellite data, and modeling studies. In the first part of this dissertation, long-term satellite observations are analyzed to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of LLCF and to elucidate the physical basis of the space-time error structure in precipitation retrievals. Significantly underestimated precipitation errors are attributed to variations in low-level rainfall microstructure undetected by satellites. Column model simulations including observed LLCF microphysics demonstrate that seeder-feeder interactions (SFI) among upper-level precipitation and LLCF contribute to an three-fold increase in observed rainfall accumulation and can enhance surface rainfall by up to ten-fold. The second part of this dissertation examines the indirect effect of aerosols on cloud formation and warm-season daytime precipitation in the SAM. A new entraining spectral cloud parcel model was developed and applied to provide the first assessment of aerosol-cloud interactions in the early development of mid-day cumulus congestus over the inner SAM. Leveraging comprehensive measurements from the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx) in 2014, model results indicate that simulated spectra with a low value of condensation coefficient (0.01) are in good agreement with IPHEx aircraft observations. Further, to explore sensitivity of warm-season precipitation processes to CCN characteristics, detailed intercomparisons of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations using IPHEx and standard continental CCN spectra were conducted. The simulated CDNC using the local spectrum show better agreement with IPHEx airborne observations and better replicate the widespread low-level cloudiness around mid-day over the inner region. The local spectrum simulation also indicate suppressed early precipitation, enhanced ice processes tied to more vigorous vertical development of individual storm cells. The studied processes here are representative of dominant moist atmospheric processes in complex terrain and cloud forests in the humid tropics and extra-tropics, thus findings from this research in the SAM are transferable to mountainous areas elsewhere.

Rainfall and Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Simulation, Prediction, and Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Maofeng

Rainfall and associated flood hazards are one of the major threats of tropical cyclones (TCs) to coastal and inland regions. The interaction of TCs with extratropical systems can lead to enhanced precipitation over enlarged areas through extratropical transition (ET). To achieve a comprehensive understanding of rainfall and ET associated with TCs, this thesis conducts weather-scale analyses by focusing on individual storms and climate-scale analyses by focusing on seasonal predictability and changing properties of climatology under global warming. The temporal and spatial rainfall evolution of individual storms, including Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Hanna (2008), and Hurricane Sandy (2012), is explored using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and a variety of hydrometeorological datasets. ET and Orographic mechanism are two key players in the rainfall distribution of Irene over regions experiencing most severe flooding. The change of TC rainfall under global warming is explored with the Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) climate model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Despite decreased TC frequency, FLOR projects increased landfalling TC rainfall over most regions of eastern United States, highlighting the risk of increased flood hazards. Increased storm rain rate is an important player of increased landfalling TC rainfall. A higher atmospheric resolution version of FLOR (HiFLOR) model projects increased TC rainfall at global scales. The increase of TC intensity and environmental water vapor content scaled by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation are two key factors that explain the projected increase of TC rainfall. Analyses on the simulation, prediction, and projection of the ET activity with FLOR are conducted in the North Atlantic. FLOR model exhibits good skills in simulating many aspects of present-day ET climatology. The 21st-century-projection under RCP4.5 scenario demonstrates the dominant role of ET events on the projected increase of TC frequency in the eastern North Atlantic, highlighting increased exposure of the northeastern United States and Western Europe to storm hazards. Retrospective seasonal forecast experiments demonstrate the skill of HiFLOR in predicting basinwide and regional ET frequency. This skill, however, is not seen in the seasonal prediction of ET rate. More work on the property of signal-to-noise ratio of ET rate is needed.

Interdecadal change of the controlling mechanisms for East Asian early summer rainfall variation around the mid-1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yim, So-Young; Wang, Bin; Kwon, MinHo

2014-03-01

East Asian (EA) summer monsoon shows considerable differences in the mean state and principal modes of interannual variation between early summer (May-June, MJ) and late summer (July-August, JA). The present study focuses on the early summer (MJ) precipitation variability. We find that the interannual variation of the MJ precipitation and the processes controlling the variation have been changed abruptly around the mid-1990s. The rainfall anomaly represented by the leading empirical orthogonal function has changed from a dipole-like pattern in pre-95 epoch (1979-1994) to a tripole-like pattern in post-95 epoch (1995-2010); the prevailing period of the corresponding principal component has also changed from 3-5 to 2-3 years. These changes are concurrent with the changes of the corresponding El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolutions. During the pre-95 epoch, the MJ EA rainfall anomaly is coupled to a slow decay of canonical ENSO events signified by an eastern Pacific warming, which induces a dipole rainfall feature over EA. On the other hand, during the post-95 epoch the anomalous MJ EA rainfall is significantly linked to a rapid decay of a central Pacific warming and a distinct tripolar sea surface temperature (SST) in North Atlantic. The central Pacific warming-induced Philippine Sea anticyclone induces an increased rainfall in southern China and decreased rainfall in central eastern China. The North Atlantic Oscillation-related tripolar North Atlantic SST anomaly induces a wave train that is responsible for the increase northern EA rainfall. Those two impacts form the tripole-like rainfall pattern over EA. Understanding such changes is important for improving seasonal to decadal predictions and long-term climate change in EA.

Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall over Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villafuerte, Marcelino, II; Matsumoto, Jun

2014-05-01

Along with the increasing concerns on the consequences of global warming, and the accumulating records of disaster related to heavy rainfall events in Southeast Asia, this study investigates whether a direct link can be detected between the rising global mean temperature, as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and extreme rainfall over the region. The maximum likelihood modeling that allows incorporating covariates on the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is employed. The GEV model is fitted to annual and seasonal rainfall extremes, which were taken from a high-resolution gauge-based gridded daily precipitation data covering a span of 57 years (1951-2007). Nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are detected over the central parts of Indochina Peninsula, eastern coasts of central Vietnam, northwest of the Sumatra Island, inland portions of Borneo Island, and on the northeastern and southwestern coasts of the Philippines. These nonstationarities in extreme rainfall are directly linked to near-surface global mean temperature and ENSO. In particular, the study reveals that a kelvin increase in global mean temperature anomaly can lead to an increase of 30% to even greater than 45% in annual maximum 1-day rainfall, which were observed pronouncedly over central Vietnam, southern coast of Myanmar, northwestern sections of Thailand, northwestern tip of Sumatra, central portions of Malaysia, and the Visayas island in central Philippines. Furthermore, a pronounced ENSO influence manifested on the seasonal maximum 1-day rainfall; a northward progression of 10%-15% drier condition over Southeast Asia as the El Niño develops from summer to winter is revealed. It is important therefore, to consider the results obtained here for water resources management as well as for adaptation planning to minimize the potential adverse impact of global warming, particularly on extreme rainfall and its associated flood risk over the region. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government through its AHRF program.

The role of the subtropical North Atlantic water cycle in recent US extreme precipitation events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Laifang; Schmitt, Raymond W.; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.

2018-02-01

The role of the oceanic water cycle in the record-breaking 2015 warm-season precipitation in the US is analyzed. The extreme precipitation started in the Southern US in the spring and propagated northward to the Midwest and the Great Lakes in the summer of 2015. This seasonal evolution of precipitation anomalies represents a typical mode of variability of US warm-season precipitation. Analysis of the atmospheric moisture flux suggests that such a rainfall mode is associated with moisture export from the subtropical North Atlantic. In the spring, excessive precipitation in the Southern US is attributable to increased moisture flux from the northwestern portion of the subtropical North Atlantic. The North Atlantic moisture flux interacts with local soil moisture which enables the US Midwest to draw more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico in the summer. Further analysis shows that the relationship between the rainfall mode and the North Atlantic water cycle has become more significant in recent decades, indicating an increased likelihood of extremes like the 2015 case. Indeed, two record-high warm-season precipitation events, the 1993 and 2008 cases, both occurred in the more recent decades of the 66 year analysis period. The export of water from the North Atlantic leaves a marked surface salinity signature. The salinity signature appeared in the spring preceding all three extreme precipitation events analyzed in this study, i.e. a saltier-than-normal subtropical North Atlantic in spring followed by extreme Midwest precipitation in summer. Compared to the various sea surface temperature anomaly patterns among the 1993, 2008, and 2015 cases, the spatial distribution of salinity anomalies was much more consistent during these extreme flood years. Thus, our study suggests that preseason salinity patterns can be used for improved seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation in the Midwest.

Linking the Response of Annual Grasslands to Warming and Altered Rainfall Across Scales of Gene Expression, Species, and Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torn, M. S.; Bernard, S. M.; Castanha, C.; Fischer, M. L.; Hopkins, F. M.; Placella, S. A.; St. Clair, S. B.; Salve, R.; Sudderth, E.; Herman, D.; Ackerly, D.; Firestone, M. K.

2007-12-01

Climate change can influence terrestrial ecosystems at multiple biological levels: gene expression, species, and ecosystem. We are studying California grassland mesocosms with seven annual species (five grasses, two forbs) that were started in 2005. In the 2006-2007 growing season, they were exposed to three rainfall treatments (297, 552, and 867 mm y-1) and soil and air temperature (ambient and elevated +4oC) in replicated greenhouses. This presentation will combine plant and ecosystem level results with transcript level analyses associated with key enzymes, such as rubisco and glutamine synthetase (GS). Because rainfall is the dominant climate variable for most processes in this Mediterranean ecosystem, the effect of warming was strongly mediated by rainfall. In fact, we saw significant interactions between temperature and rainfall treatments at all three biological levels. For example, at the ecosystem level, warming led to a decrease in aboveground and total NPP under low rainfall, and an increase under high rainfall. For the dominant species, Avena barbata, warming had no effect under high rainfall, but suppressed Avena NPP in low rainfall. At the same time, warmer, wetter conditions accelerated Avena flowering by almost 15 days. This shift in phenology was presaged by observations at the transcript level. Specifically, in the high temperature, high rainfall treatment, the levels of mRNAs for RbcS and GS2 (encoding the small subunit of rubisco and the chloroplastic isoform of GS, respectively) declined while GS1 (encoding the cytosolic isoform of GS) was upregulated several weeks before heading. The transcript level response (along with soil and plant nitrogen data) indicated the leaf had switched from a carbon and nitrogen sink to a source - consistent with more mature plant function and earlier flowering. Soil CO2 respiration also showed strong rain-by-temperature interactions that were due mainly to changes in root response (respiration and/or exudates) rather than in microbial respiration. Overall, the pervasive rain-by-temperature interactions mean that it may be very difficult to predict the effect of warming alone, without accounting for changes in precipitation (in our Mediterranean system). While predictions of warming of 3-6°C in the next 100 years are fairly certain, changes in precipitation are much more uncertain, with some forecasts drier and others wetter for a given location. We suggest that uncertainty about future precipitation and the interacting influences of temperature and moisture on ecosystems are currently key limitations in predicting ecosystem response to climate change, particularly in Mediterranean ecosystems such as the one studied here.

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Blade, Ileana; Liebmann, Brant; Roberts, Jason B.; Robertson, Franklin R.

2014-01-01

In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers support disaster risk reduction while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we explore the dominant modes of East African rainfall variability, links between these modes and sea surface temperatures, and a simple index-based monitoring-prediction system suitable for drought early warning.

Projecting Changes in S. Florida Rainfall for the 21st century: Scenarios, Downscaling and Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cioffi, F.; Lall, U.; Monti, A.

2013-12-01

A Non-Homogeneous hidden Markov Models (NHMM) is developed using a 65-years record (1948-2012) of daily rainfall amount at nineteen stations in South Florida and re-analysis atmospheric fields of Temperature (T) at 1000 hPa, Geo Potential Height (GPH) at 1000 hPa, Meridional Winds (MW) and Zonal Winds (ZW) at 850 hPa, and Zonal Winds on the specific latitude of 27N (ZW27N) from 10 to 1000 hPa. The NHMM fitted is then used for predicting future rainfall patterns under global warming scenario (RCP8.5), using predictors from the CMCC-CMS simulations from 1950-2100. The model directly includes a consideration of seasonality through changes in the driving variables thus addressing the question of how future changes in seasonality of precipitation can also be modeled. The results of the simulations obtained by using the downscaling model NHMM, with predictors derived from the simulations of CMCC-CMS CGM, in the worst conditions of global warming as simulated by RCP8.5 scenario, seems to indicate that, as a consequence of increase of CO2 concentration and temperature, South Florida should be subjected to more frequent dry conditions for the most part of the year, due mainly to a reduction of number of wet days and, at the same time, the territory should be also affected by extreme rainfall events that are more intense than the present ones. What appears from results is an increases of rainfall variability. This scenario seems coherent with the trends of rainfall patterns observed in the XX century. An investigation on the causes of such hydrologic changes, and specifically on the role of North Atlantic Subtropical High is pursued.

Droughts threaten Bornean rainforests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Atreyee

2012-08-01

At 130 million years old, the rainforests of Southeast Asia are the oldest in the world and home to thousands of species of plants and animals, some endemic to these forests. The rainforests also play important roles in modulating regional rainfall and in the global carbon cycle. However, since the 1960s, increased warming in the Indian Ocean and frequent El Niño events have reduced rainfall in the region by approximately 1.0% per decade. Furthermore, the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change predicts that over the 21st century, Southeast Asia will experience higher land temperatures, more droughts, and increased seasonality; that is, wet seasons during the fall will get wetter, and dry seasons during the spring will get drier. However, few studies in the past have investigated how trees in the southeastern Asian rainforests respond to droughts and climate change.

An Investigation of the Influence of Urban Areas on Rainfall Using the TRMM Satellite and a Cloud-Mesoscale Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; OCStarr, David (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A recent paper by Shepherd and Pierce (in press at Journal of Applied Meteorology) used rainfall data from the Precipitation Radar on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) satellite to identify warm season rainfall anomalies downwind of major urban areas. Data (PR) were employed to identify warm season rainfall (1998-2000) patterns around Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas. Results reveal an average increase of approx. 28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage changes are relative to an upwind control area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area exceeded the mean value in the upwind control area by 48%-116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. Results are consistent with METROMEX studies of St. Louis almost two decades ago and with more recent studies near Atlanta. A convective-mesoscale model with extensive land-surface processes is currently being employed to (a) determine if an urban heat island (UHI) thermal perturbation can induce a dynamic response to affect rainfall processes and (b) quantify the impact of the following three factors on the evolution of rainfall: (1) urban surface roughness, (2) magnitude of the UHI temperature anomaly, and (3) physical size of the UHI temperature anomaly. The sensitivity experiments are achieved by inserting a slab of land with urban properties (e.g. roughness length, albedo, thermal character) within a rural surface environment and varying the appropriate lower boundary condition parameters. The study will discuss the feasibility of utilizing satellite-based rainfall estimates for examining rainfall modification by urban areas on global scales and over longer time periods. The talk also introduces very preliminary results from the modeling component of the study. Such research has implications for weather forecasting, urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment and climate.

Significant Features of Warm Season Water Vapor Flux Related to Heavy Rainfall and Draught in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishiyama, Koji; Iseri, Yoshihiko; Jinno, Kenji

2009-11-01

In this study, our objective is to reveal complicated relationships between spatial water vapor inflow patterns and heavy rainfall activities in Kyushu located in the western part of Japan, using the outcomes of pattern recognition of water vapor inflow, based on the Self-Organizing Map. Consequently, it could be confirmed that water vapor inflow patterns control the distribution and the frequency of heavy rainfall depending on the direction of their fluxes and the intensity of Precipitable water. Historically serious flood disasters in South Kyushu in 1993 were characterized by high frequency of the water vapor inflow patterns linking to heavy rainfall. On the other hand, severe draught in 1994 was characterized by inactive frontal activity that do not related to heavy rainfall.

Climate Assessment for 1997.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Gerald D.; Halpert, Michael S.

1998-05-01

The global climate during 1997 was affected by both extremes of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with weak Pacific cold episode conditions prevailing during January and February, and one of the strongest Pacific warm episodes (El Niño) in the historical record prevailing during the remainder of the year. This warm episode contributed to major regional rainfall and temperature anomalies over large portions of the Tropics and extratropics, which were generally consistent with those observed during past warm episodes. In many regions, these anomalies were opposite to those observed during 1996 and early 1997 in association with Pacific cold episode conditions.Some of the most dramatic El Niño impacts during 1997 were observed in the Tropics, where anomalous convection was evident across the entire Pacific and throughout most major monsoon regions of the world. Tropical regions most affected by excessive El Niño-related rainfall during the year included 1) the eastern half of the tropical Pacific, where extremely heavy rainfall and strong convective activity covered the region from April through December; 2) equatorial eastern Africa, where excessive rainfall during OctoberDecember led to widespread flooding and massive property damage; 3) Chile, where a highly amplified and extended South Pacific jet stream brought increased storminess and above-normal rainfall during the winter and spring; 4) southeastern South America, where these same storms produced above-normal rainfall during JuneDecember; and 5) Ecuador and northern Peru, which began receiving excessive rainfall totals in November and December as deep tropical convection spread eastward across the extreme eastern Pacific.In contrast, El Niño-related rainfall deficits during 1997 included 1) Indonesia, where significantly below-normal rainfall from June through December resulted in extreme drought and contributed to uncontrolled wildfires; 2) New Guinea, where drought contributed to large-scale food shortages leading to an outbreak of malnutrition; 3) the Amazon Basin, which received below-normal rainfall during June-December in association with substantially reduced tropical convection throughout the region; 4) the tropical Atlantic, which experienced drier than normal conditions during July-December; and 5) central America and the Caribbean Sea, which experienced below-normal rainfall during March-December.The El Niño also contributed to a decrease in tropical storm and hurricane activity over the North Atlantic during August-November, and to an expanded area of conditions favorable for tropical cyclone and hurricane formation over the eastern North Pacific. These conditions are in marked contrast to both the 1995 and 1996 hurricane seasons, in which significantly above-normal tropical cyclone activity was observed over the North Atlantic and suppressed activity prevailed across the eastern North Pacific.Other regional aspects of the short-term climate during 1997 included 1) wetter than average 1996/97 rainy seasons in both northeastern Australia and southern Africa in association with a continuation of weak cold episode conditions into early 1997; 2) below-normal rainfall and drought in southeastern Australia from October 1996 to December 1997 following very wet conditions in this region during most of 1996; 3) widespread flooding in the Red River Valley of the north-central United States during April following an abnormally cold and snowy winter; 4) floods in central Europe during July following several consecutive months of above-normal rainfall; 5) near-record to record rainfall in southeastern Asia during June-August in association with an abnormally weak upper-level monsoon ridge; and 6) near-normal rainfall across India during the Indian monsoon season (June-September) despite the weakened monsoon ridge.

Interannual rainfall variability in the Amazon basin and sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and the tropical Atlantic Oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronchail, Josyane; Cochonneau, Gérard; Molinier, Michel; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Chaves, Adriana Goretti De Miranda; Guimarães, Valdemar; de Oliveira, Eurides

2002-11-01

Rainfall variability in the Amazon basin is studied in relation to sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific and the northern and southern tropical Atlantic during the 1977-99 period, using the HiBAm original rainfall data set and complementary cluster and composite analyses.The northeastern part of the basin, north of 5 °S and east of 60 °W, is significantly related with tropical SSTs: a rainier wet season is observed when the equatorial Pacific and the northern (southern) tropical Atlantic are anomalously cold (warm). A shorter and drier wet season is observed during El Niño events and negative rainfall anomalies are also significantly associated with a warm northern Atlantic in the austral autumn and a cold southern Atlantic in the spring. The northeastern Amazon rainfall anomalies are closely related with El Niño-southern oscillation during the whole year, whereas the relationships with the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies are mainly observed during the autumn. A time-space continuity is observed between El Niño-related rainfall anomalies in the northeastern Amazon, those in the northern Amazon and south-eastern Amazon, and those in northern South America and in the Nordeste of Brazil.A reinforcement of certain rainfall anomalies is observed when specific oceanic events combine. For instance, when El Niño and cold SSTs in the southern Atlantic are associated, very strong negative anomalies are observed in the whole northern Amazon basin. Nonetheless, the comparison of the cluster and the composite analyses results shows that the rainfall anomalies in the northeastern Amazon are not always associated with tropical SST anomalies.In the southern and western Amazon, significant tropical SST-related rainfall anomalies are very few and spatially variable. The precipitation origins differ from those of the northeastern Amazon: land temperature variability, extratropical perturbations and moisture advection are important rainfall factors, as well as SSTs. This could partially explain why: (a) the above-mentioned signals weaken or disappear, with the exception of the relative dryness that is observed at the peak of an El Niño event and during the dry season when northern Atlantic SSTs are warmer than usual; (b) rainfall anomalies tend to resemble those of southeastern South America, noticeably at the beginning and the end of El Niño and La Niña events; (c) some strong excesses of rain are not associated with any SST anomalies and merit further investigation.

The Contribution of Mesoscale Convective Weather Systems to the Warm-Season Precipitation in the United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritsch, J. M.; Kane, R. J.; Chelius, C. R.

1986-10-01

The contribution of precipitation from mesoscale convective weather systems to the warm-season (April-September) rainfall in the United States is evaluated. Both Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCC's) and other large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems that do not quite meet Maddox's criteria for being termed an MCC are included in the evaluation. The distribution and geographical limits of the precipitation from the convective weather systems are constructed for the warm seasons of 1982, a `normal' year, and 1983, a drought year. Precipitation characteristics of the systems are compared for the 2 years to determine how large-scale drought patterns affect their precipitation production.The frequency, precipitation characteristics and hydrologic ramifications of multiple occurrences, or series, of convective weather systems are presented and discussed. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the accumulated precipitation from a series of convective complexes is investigated and compared to that of Hurricane Alicia.It is found that mesoscale convective weather systems account for approximately 30% to 70% of the warm-season (April-September) precipitation over much of the region between the Rocky Mountains and the Mississippi River. During the June through August period, their contribution is even larger. Moreover, series of convective weather systems are very likely the most prolific precipitation producer in the United States, rivaling and even exceeding that of hurricanes.Changes in the large-scale circulation patterns affected the seasonal precipitation from mesoscale convective weather systems by altering the precipitation characteristics of individual systems. In particular, for the drought period of 1983, the frequency of the convective systems remained nearly the same as in the `normal' year (1982); however, the average precipitation area and the average volumetric production significantly decreased. Nevertheless, the rainfall that was produced by mesoscale convective weather systems in the drought year accounted for most of the precipitation received during the critical crop growth period.It is concluded that mesoscale convective weather systems may be a crucial precipitation-producing deterrent to drought and an important mechanism for enhancing midsummer crop growth throughout the midwestern United States. Furthermore, because mesoscale convective weather systems account for such a large fraction of the warm-season precipitation, significant improvements in prediction of such systems would likely translate into significant improvements in quantitative precipitation forecast skill and corresponding improvements in hydrologic forecasts of runoff.

The preconditioning role of Tropical Atlantic Variability in the development of the ENSO teleconnection: implications for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannini, A.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.

A comparison of rainfall variability in the semi-arid Brazilian Nordeste in observations and in two sets of model simulations leads to the conclusion that the evolving interaction between Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can explain two puzzling features of ENSO's impact on the Nordeste: (1) the event-to-event unpredictability of ENSO's impact; (2) the greater impact of cold rather than warm ENSO events during the past 50 years. The explanation is in the `preconditioning' role of Tropical Atlantic Variability. When, in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO, the tropical Atlantic happens to be evolving consistently with the development expected of the ENSO teleconnection, ENSO and TAV add up to force large anomalies in Nordeste rainfall. When it happens to be evolving in opposition to the canonical development of ENSO, then the net outcome is less obvious, but also less anomalous. The more frequent occurrence of tropical Atlantic conditions consistent with those that develop during a cold ENSO event, i.e. of a negative meridional sea surface temperature gradient, explains the weaker warm ENSO and stronger cold ENSO anomalies in Nordeste rainfall of the latter part of the twentieth century. Close monitoring of the evolution of the tropical Atlantic in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO should lead to an enhanced forecast potential.

Radiative effects of black carbon aerosols on Indian monsoon: a study using WRF-Chem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soni, Pramod; Tripathi, Sachchida Nand; Srivastava, Rajesh

2018-04-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) is utilized to examine the radiative effects of black carbon (BC) aerosols on the Indian monsoon, for the year 2010. Five ensemble simulations with different initial conditions (1st to 5th December, 2009) were performed and simulation results between 1st January, 2010 to 31st December, 2010 were used for analysis. Most of the BC which stays near the surface during the pre-monsoon season gets transported to higher altitudes with the northward migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during the monsoon season. In both the seasons, strong negative SW anomalies are present at the surface along with positive anomalies in the atmosphere, which results in the surface cooling and lower tropospheric heating, respectively. During the pre-monsoon season, lower troposphere heating causes increased convection and enhanced meridional wind circulation, bringing moist air from Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal to the North-East India, leading to increased rainfall there. However, during the monsoon season, along with cooling over the land regions, a warming over the Bay of Bengal is simulated. This differential heating results in an increased westerly moisture flux anomaly over central India, leading to increased rainfall over northern parts of India but decreased rainfall over southern parts. Decreased rainfall over southern India is also substantiated by the presence of increased evaporation over Bay of Bengal and decrease over land regions.

Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts. A Review in the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Mohino, Elsa; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Caminade, Cyril; Biasutti, Michela; Gaetani, Marco; Garcia-Serrano, J.; Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry; Xue, Yongkang;

Disaggregating from daily to sub-daily rainfall under a future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westra, S.; Evans, J.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

2012-04-01

We describe an algorithm for disaggregating daily rainfall into sub-daily rainfall 'fragments' (continuous fine-resolution rainfall sequences whose total depth sums to the daily rainfall amount) under a future, warmer climate. The basis of the algorithm is re-sample sub-daily fragments from the historical record conditional on the total daily rainfall amount and a range of atmospheric predictors representative of the future climate. The logic is that as the atmosphere warms, future rainfall patterns will be more reflective of historical rainfall patterns which occurred on warmer days at the same location, or at locations which have an atmospheric profile more reflective of expected future conditions. When looking at the scaling from daily to sub-daily rainfall over the historical record, it was found that the relationship varied significantly by season and by location, with rainfall patterns on warmer seasons or at warmer locations typically showing more intense rain falling over shorter periods compared with cooler seasons and stations. Importantly, by regressing against atmospheric covariates such as temperature this effect was almost entirely eliminated, providing a basis for suggesting the approach may be valid when extrapolating sub-daily sequences to a future climate. The method of fragments algorithm was then applied to nine stations around Australia, and showed that when holding the total daily rainfall constant, the maximum intensity of a short duration (6 minute) rainfall increased by between 4.1% and 13.4% per degree change in temperature for the maximum six minute burst, between 3.1% and 6.8% for the maximum one hour burst, and between 1.5% and 3.5% for the fraction of the day with no rainfall. This highlights that a large proportion of the change to the distribution of precipitation in the future is likely to occur at sub-daily timescales, with significant implications for many hydrological systems.

Holocene climate variability and oceanographic changes off western South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Xueqin; Dupont, Lydie; E Meadows, Michael; Schefuß, Enno; Bouimetarhan, Ilham; Wefer, Gerold

2017-04-01

South Africa is located at a critical transition zone between subtropical and warm-temperate climate zones influenced by the Indian and Atlantic oceans. Presently, the seasonal changes of atmospheric and oceanic systems induce a pronounced rainfall seasonality comprised of two different rainfall zones over South Africa. How did this seasonality develop during the Holocene? To obtain a better understanding of how South African climates have evolved during the Holocene, we conduct a comprehensive spatial-temporal approach including pollen and dinoflagellate cyst records from marine sediment samples retrieved from the Namaqualand mudbelt, a Holocene terrigenous mud deposit on the shelf of western South Africa. The representation of different vegetation communities in western South Africa is assessed through pollen analysis of surface sediments. This approach allows for climate reconstructions of the summer rainfall zone (SRZ) using Group 1 (Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Phragmites-type and Typha) and winter rainfall zone (WRZ) using Group 2 (Restionaceae, Ericaceae, Anthospermum, Stoebe/Elytropappus-type, Cliffortia, Passerina, Artemisia-type and Pentzia-type) from a single marine archive. The fossil pollen data from gravity core GeoB8331-4 indicate contrasting climate patterns in the SRZ and WRZ especially during the early and middle Holocene. The rainfall amount in the SRZ is dominated by insolation forcing, while in the WRZ it is mainly attributed to the latitudinal position of the southern westerlies. Dinoflagellate cyst data show significantly different oceanographic conditions associated with climate changes on land. High percentages of autotrophic taxa like Operculodinium centrocarpum and Spiniferites spp. indicate warm and stratified conditions during the early Holocene, suggesting reduced upwelling. In contrast, the middle Holocene is characterized by a strong increase in heterotrophic taxa in particular Lejeunecysta paratenella and Echinidinium spp., indicating cool and nutrient-rich waters with active upwelling. Thus, sea surface temperatures are dominated by upwelling dynamics influenced by the latitudinal position of the southern westerlies rather than warm waters via the Agulhas leakage. The paleo-productivity changes during the late Holocene are controlled by the freshwater influx of the Orange River indicated by abundant fluvial-related taxa such as Brigantedinium spp., Protoperidinium americanum and Lejeunecysta oliva. This corroborates the increase of Poaceae/Asteraceae ratio suggesting increased summer rainfall in the SRZ. Therefore, the terrestrial (pollen) and marine (dinoflagellate cyst) records generated from the same sediment sequence enable a clear understanding of the mechanisms driving variability in the Holocene of South Africa and provide significant insight into the land-ocean linkages.

Analysis of hydrologic variation under climate change environment in southern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yung-Chau; Chen, Yu-Chin; Chen, Wen-Fu

2014-05-01

Impact and adaptation is an important issue in response to climate change. We need to know the affections of climate change on hydrologic characteristics before estimating the impacts and making adaptation strategies of concerned area. The wet and dry seasons of southern Taiwan are significant. In addition, the amount of average annual rainfall is about 2,100mm in southern Taiwan. Most of rainfalls happen in wet season and are caused by cyclones (typhoons) or thunderstorms in wet season. It implies that both quantity and intensity of rainfall are large in wet season, while they are small in dry season. Corresponding to the phenomena, the possibility of flood in wet season and draught in dry season is high. This means significant hydrologic variations may cause disasters. The purpose of this study is to analyze hydrologic variation due to recent climate changes in southern Taiwan, and provide decision makers some information to understand possible impacts and make adaptation strategies. Before typhoon Morakot hit Taiwan, southern Taiwan was suffering from aridity. As usual, people were expecting the rainfall accompanied with typhoons will resolve the drought in this area. However, it fell down huge amount of water within a short period of time and the rain became a big disaster in this area. The rainfall is an over 200-year event, a record breaker. The data used in this research is based on the records of Taiwan Central Weather Bureau at Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Hengchun station, respectively. The trends of temperature, amount of rainfall, and number of rainy days are examined. Both Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression method are chosen as the means to do trend examination.The results show that annual mean temperatures at Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Hengchun have raised 0.5~0.9°C during past decades under the impact of global warming. The amount of annual rainfall does not appear statistically significant trend. However, the number of annual rainy day is reduced by15%. It suggests that rainfall intensity is increased and the mean length of drought period is increased as well, generally. That means possibility of flood and drought is becoming larger in future. Decision makers should pay more attentions about it and proceed adaptation strategies plans.

Variations in evapotranspiration and climate for an Amazonian semi-deciduous forest over seasonal, annual, and El Niño cycles.

PubMed

Vourlitis, George L; de Souza Nogueira, José; de Almeida Lobo, Francisco; Pinto, Osvaldo Borges

2015-02-01

Tropical forests exchange large amounts of water and energy with the atmosphere and are important in controlling regional and global climate; however, climate and evaportranspiration (E) vary significantly across multiple time scales. To better understand temporal patterns in E and climate, we measured the energy balance and meteorology of a semi-deciduous forest in the rainforest-savanna ecotone of northern Mato Grosso, Brazil, over a 7-year period and analyzed regional climate patterns over a 16-year period. Spectral analysis revealed that E and local climate exhibited consistent cycles over annual, seasonal, and weekly time scales. Annual and seasonal cycles were also apparent in the regional monthly rainfall and humidity time series, and a cycle on the order of 3-5.5 years was also apparent in the regional air temperature time series, which is coincident with the average return interval of El Niño. Annual rates of E were significantly affected by the 2002 El Niño. Prior to this event, annual E was on average 1,011 mm/year and accounted for 52% of the annual rainfall, while after, annual E was 931 mm/year and accounted for 42% of the annual rainfall. Our data also suggest that E declined significantly over the 7-year study period while air temperature significantly increased, which was coincident with a long-term, regional warming and drying trend. These results suggest that drought and warming induced by El Niño and/or climate change cause declines in E for semi-deciduous forests of the southeast Amazon Basin.

Variations in evapotranspiration and climate for an Amazonian semi-deciduous forest over seasonal, annual, and El Niño cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vourlitis, George L.; de Souza Nogueira, José; de Almeida Lobo, Francisco; Pinto, Osvaldo Borges

2015-02-01

Tropical forests exchange large amounts of water and energy with the atmosphere and are important in controlling regional and global climate; however, climate and evaportranspiration ( E) vary significantly across multiple time scales. To better understand temporal patterns in E and climate, we measured the energy balance and meteorology of a semi-deciduous forest in the rainforest-savanna ecotone of northern Mato Grosso, Brazil, over a 7-year period and analyzed regional climate patterns over a 16-year period. Spectral analysis revealed that E and local climate exhibited consistent cycles over annual, seasonal, and weekly time scales. Annual and seasonal cycles were also apparent in the regional monthly rainfall and humidity time series, and a cycle on the order of 3-5.5 years was also apparent in the regional air temperature time series, which is coincident with the average return interval of El Niño. Annual rates of E were significantly affected by the 2002 El Niño. Prior to this event, annual E was on average 1,011 mm/year and accounted for 52 % of the annual rainfall, while after, annual E was 931 mm/year and accounted for 42 % of the annual rainfall. Our data also suggest that E declined significantly over the 7-year study period while air temperature significantly increased, which was coincident with a long-term, regional warming and drying trend. These results suggest that drought and warming induced by El Niño and/or climate change cause declines in E for semi-deciduous forests of the southeast Amazon Basin.

On the shortening of Indian summer monsoon season in a warming scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabeerali, C. T.; Ajayamohan, R. S.

2018-03-01

Assessing the future projections of the length of rainy season (LRS) has paramount societal impact considering its potential to alter the seasonal mean rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Here, we explored the projections of LRS using both historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5). RCP8.5 simulations project shortening of the LRS of Indian summer monsoon by altering the timing of onset and withdrawal dates. Most CMIP5 RCP8.5 model simulations indicate a faster warming rate over the western tropical Indian Ocean compared to other regions of the Indian Ocean. It is found that the pronounced western Indian Ocean warming and associated increase in convection results in warmer upper troposphere over the Indian Ocean compared to the Indian subcontinent, reducing the meridional gradient in upper tropospheric temperature (UTT) over the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) domain. The weakening of the meridional gradient in UTT induces weakening of easterly vertical wind shear over the ASM domain during first and last phase of monsoon, facilitate delayed (advanced) monsoon onset (withdrawal) dates, ensues the shortening of LRS of the Indian summer monsoon in a warming scenario.

Climate trends and projections for Guam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gingerich, Stephen B.; Keener, Victoria; Finucane, Melissa L.

2015-01-01

The island of Guam experiences a tropical marine climate, which is warm and humid moderated by seasonal tradewinds and a wet and dry season. The dry season lasts from January to June, while the rainy months are from July to December. Annual rainfall totals 84-116 inches (2133-2946 mm), of which two-thirds fall during the rainy season. Seasonal temperatures and precipitation are also affected by the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tropical cyclones, which cause the largest deviations from average precipitation. An average of three tropical storms and one typhoon pass within 80 nautical miles of Guam each year, and both flooding and drought can impact freshwater supply management and associated infrastructure. 

Sub-seasonal behaviour of Asian summer monsoon under a changing climate: assessments using CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sooraj, K. P.; Terray, Pascal; Xavier, Prince

2016-06-01

Numerous global warming studies show the anticipated increase in mean precipitation with the rising levels of carbon dioxide concentration. However, apart from the changes in mean precipitation, the finer details of daily precipitation distribution, such as its intensity and frequency (so called daily rainfall extremes), need to be accounted for while determining the impacts of climate changes in future precipitation regimes. Here we examine the climate model projections from a large set of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 models, to assess these future aspects of rainfall distribution over Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region. Our assessment unravels a north-south rainfall dipole pattern, with increased rainfall over Indian subcontinent extending into the western Pacific region (north ASM region, NASM) and decreased rainfall over equatorial oceanic convergence zone over eastern Indian Ocean region (south ASM region, SASM). This robust future pattern is well conspicuous at both seasonal and sub-seasonal time scales. Subsequent analysis, using daily rainfall events defined using percentile thresholds, demonstrates that mean rainfall changes over NASM region are mainly associated with more intense and more frequent extreme rainfall events (i.e. above 95th percentile). The inference is that there are significant future changes in rainfall probability distributions and not only a uniform shift in the mean rainfall over the NASM region. Rainfall suppression over SASM seems to be associated with changes involving multiple rainfall events and shows a larger model spread, thus making its interpretation more complex compared to NASM. Moisture budget diagnostics generally show that the low-level moisture convergence, due to stronger increase of water vapour in the atmosphere, acts positively to future rainfall changes, especially for heaviest rainfall events. However, it seems that the dynamic component of moisture convergence, associated with vertical motion, shows a strong spatial and rainfall category dependency, sometimes offsetting the effect of the water vapour increase. Additionally, we found that the moisture convergence is mainly dominated by the climatological vertical motion acting on the humidity changes and the interplay between all these processes proves to play a pivotal role for regulating the intensities of various rainfall events in the two domains.

An interdecadal regime shift in rainfall predictability related to the Ningaloo Nino in the late 1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doi, T.; Behera, S. K.; Yamagata, T.

2016-02-01

The global warming and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) started influencing the coastal ocean off Western Australia, leading to a dramatic change in the regional climate predictability. The warmer ocean started driving rainfall variability regionally there after the late 1990s. Because of this, rainfall predictability near the coastal region of Western Australia on a seasonal time scale was drastically enhanced in the late 1990s; it is significantly predictable 5 months ahead after the late 1990s. The high prediction skill of the rainfall in recent decades is very encouraging and would help to develop an early warning system of Ningaloo Nino/Nina events to mitigate possible societal as well as agricultural impacts in the granary of Western Australia.

An interdecadal regime shift in rainfall predictability related to the Ningaloo Niño in the late 1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doi, Takeshi; Behera, Swadhin K.; Yamagata, Toshio

2015-02-01

The global warming and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) started influencing the coastal ocean off Western Australia, leading to a dramatic change in the regional climate predictability. The warmer ocean started driving rainfall variability regionally there after the late 1990s. Because of this, rainfall predictability near the coastal region of Western Australia on a seasonal time scale was drastically enhanced in the late 1990s; it is significantly predictable 5 months ahead after the late 1990s. The high prediction skill of the rainfall in recent decades is very encouraging and would help to develop an early warning system of Ningaloo Niño/Niña events to mitigate possible societal as well as agricultural impacts in the granary of Western Australia.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts for DoD installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-10

20 4. Statistical analysis methods to characterize distributions and trends...duration precipitation diagram from convective- permitting simulations for Barry Goldwater Range, Arizona. ix Figure 60: Statistically ...Same as Fig. 60 for other DoD facilities in the Southwest as labeled. Figure 62: Statistically significant model ensemble changes in rainfall

Potential sensitivity of warm season precipitation to urbanization extents: Modeling study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Feng, Jinming; Yan, Zhongwei

2015-09-01

In this study, we investigated how different degrees of urbanization affect local and regional rainfall using high-resolution simulations based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The extreme rainfall event of 21 July 2012 in Beijing was simulated for three representative urban land use distributions (no urbanization, early urbanization level of 1980, and recent urbanization level of 2009). Results suggest that urban modification of rainfall is potentially sensitive to urban land use condition. Rainfall was increased significantly over the downwind Beijing metropolis because of the effects of early urbanization; however, recent conditions of high urban development caused no significant increase. Further comparative analysis revealed that positive urban thermodynamical effects (i.e., urban warming, increased sensible heat transportation, and enhanced convergence and vertical motions) play major roles in urban modification of rainfall during the early urbanization stage. However, after cities expand to a certain extent (i.e., urban agglomeration), the regional moisture depression induced by the prevalence of impervious urban land has an effect on atmospheric instability energy, which might negate the city's positive impact on regional rainfall. Additional results from regional climate simulations for 10 Julys confirm this supposition. Given the explosive urban population growth and increasing demand for freshwater in cities, the potential negative effects of the urban environment on precipitation are worth investigation, particularly in rapidly developing countries and regions.

[Responses of plant community structure and species composition to warming and N addition in an alpine meadow, northern Tibetan Plateau, China].

PubMed

Zong, Ning; Chai, Xi; Shi, Pei Li; Jiang, Jing; Niu, Ben; Zhang, Xian Zhou; He, Yong Tao

2016-12-01

Global climate warming and increasing nitrogen (N) deposition, as controversial global environmental issues, may distinctly affect the functions and processes of terrestrial ecosystems. It has been reported that the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has been experiencing significant warming in recent decades, especially in winter. Previous studies have mainly focused on the effects of warming all the year round; however, few studies have tested the effects of winter warming. To investigate the effects of winter warming and N addition on plant community structure and species composition of alpine meadow, long-term N addition and simulated warming experiment was conducted in alpine meadow from 2010 in Damxung, northern Tibet. The experiment consisted of three warming patterns: Year-round warming (YW), winter warming (WW) and control (NW), crossed respectively with five N gradients: 0, 10, 20, 40, 80 kg N·hm -2 ·a -1 . From 2012 to 2014, both warming and N addition significantly affected the total coverage of plant community. Specifically, YW significantly decreased the total coverage of plant community. Without N addition, WW remarkably reduced the vegetation coverage. However, with N addition, the total vegetation coverage gradually increased with the increase of N level. Warming and N addition had different effects on plants from different functional groups. Warming significantly reduced the plant coverage of grasses and sedges, while N addition significantly enhanced the plant coverage of grasses. Regression analyses showed that the total coverage of plant community was positively related to soil water content in vigorous growth stages, indicating that the decrease in soil water content resulted from warming during dry seasons might be the main reason for the decline of total community coverage. As soil moisture in semi-arid alpine meadow is mainly regulated by rainfalls, our results indicated that changes in spatial and temporal patterns of rainfalls under the future climate change scenarios would dramatically influence the vegetation coverage and species composition. Additionally, the effects of increasing atmospheric N deposition on vegetation community might also depend on the change of rainfall patterns.

Detecting Climate Signals in Precipitation Extremes from TRMM (1998-2013) - Increasing Contrast Between Wet and Dry Extremes During the "Global Warming Hiatus"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Huey-Tzu Jenny; Lau, William K.-M.

2016-01-01

We investigate changes in daily precipitation extremes using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (1998-2013), which coincides with the "global warming hiatus." Results show a change in probability distribution functions of local precipitation events (LPEs) during this period consistent with previous global warming studies, indicating increasing contrast between wet and dry extremes, with more intense LPE, less moderate LPE, and more dry (no rain) days globally. Analyses for land and ocean separately reveal more complex and nuanced changes over land, characterized by a strong positive trend (+12.0% per decade, 99% confidence level (c.l.)) in frequency of extreme LPEs over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the wet season but a negative global trend (-6.6% per decade, 95% c.l.) during the dry season. A significant global drying trend (3.2% per decade, 99% c.l.) over land is also found during the dry season. Regions of pronounced increased dry events include western and central U.S., northeastern Asia, and Southern Europe/Mediterranean.

Seasonality of Fire Weather Strongly Influences Fire Regimes in South Florida Savanna-Grassland Landscapes

PubMed Central

Platt, William J.; Orzell, Steve L.; Slocum, Matthew G.

2015-01-01

Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature). We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993–2009) data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture) to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires) over a 13-year period with fire records (1997–2009). Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with timing of natural lightning ignitions should be useful as a basis for ecological fire management of humid savanna-grassland landscapes worldwide. PMID:25574667

Seasonality of fire weather strongly influences fire regimes in South Florida savanna-grassland landscapes.

PubMed

Platt, William J; Orzell, Steve L; Slocum, Matthew G

2015-01-01

Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature). We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993-2009) data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture) to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires) over a 13-year period with fire records (1997-2009). Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with timing of natural lightning ignitions should be useful as a basis for ecological fire management of humid savanna-grassland landscapes worldwide.

The Chennai extreme rainfall event in 2015: The Bay of Bengal connection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyaj, Alugula; Ashok, Karumuri; Ghosh, Subimal; Devanand, Anjana; Dandu, Govardhan

2018-04-01

Southeast India experienced a heavy rainfall during 30 Nov-2 Dec 2015. Particularly, the Chennai city, the fourth major metropolitan city in India with a population of 5 million, experienced extreme flooding and causalities. Using various observed/reanalysed datasets, we find that the concurrent southern Bay of Bengal (BoB) sea surface temperatures (SST) were anomalously warm. Our analysis shows that BoB sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) are indeed positively, and significantly, correlated with the northeastern Indian monsoonal rainfall during this season. Our sensitivity experiments carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 25 km resolution suggest that, while the strong concurrent El Niño conditions contributed to about 21.5% of the intensity of the extreme Chennai rainfall through its signals in the local SST mentioned above, the warming trend in BoB SST also contributed equally to the extremity of the event. Further, the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) impacts on the intensity of the synoptic events in the BoB during the northeast monsoon are manifested largely through the local SST in the BoB as compared through its signature in the atmospheric circulations over the BoB.

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C.; Hoell, A.; Shukla, S.; Bladé, I.; Liebmann, B.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Husak, G.

2014-03-01

In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia, poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers implement disaster risk reduction measures while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts in that region to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we show that the two dominant modes of East African boreal spring rainfall variability are tied, respectively, to western-central Pacific and central Indian Ocean SST. Variations in these rainfall modes can be predicted using two previously defined SST indices - the West Pacific Gradient (WPG) and Central Indian Ocean index (CIO), with the WPG and CIO being used, respectively, to predict the first and second rainfall modes. These simple indices can be used in concert with more sophisticated coupled modeling systems and land surface data assimilations to help inform early warning and guide climate outlooks.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voigt, Aiko; Biasutti, Michela; Scheff, Jacob

This paper introduces the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP). TRACMIP studies the dynamics of tropical rain belts and their response to past and future radiative forcings through simulations with 13 comprehensive and one simplified atmosphere models coupled to a slab ocean and driven by seasonally-varying insolation. Five idealized experiments, two with an aquaplanet setup and three with a setup with an idealized tropical continent, fill the space between prescribed-SST aquaplanet simulations and realistic simulations provided by CMIP5/6. The simulations reproduce key features of the present-day climate and expected future climate change,more » including an annual-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) that is located north of the equator and Hadley cells and eddy-driven jets that are similar to the present-day climate. Quadrupling CO 2 leads to a northward ITCZ shift and preferential warming in Northern high-latitudes. The simulations show interesting CO 2-induced changes in the seasonal excursion of the ITCZ and indicate a possible state-dependence of climate sensitivity. The inclusion of an idealized continent modulates both the control climate and the response to increased CO 2; for example it reduces the northward ITCZ shift associated with warming and, in some models, climate sensitivity. In response to eccentricity-driven seasonal insolation changes, seasonal changes in oceanic rainfall are best characterized as a meridional dipole, while seasonal continental rainfall changes tend to be symmetric about the equator. Finally, this survey illustrates TRACMIP’s potential to engender a deeper understanding of global and regional climate phenomena and to address pressing questions on past and future climate change.« less

Perceptible changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall in relation to Indian Monsoon Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naidu, C. V.; Dharma Raju, A.; Vinay Kumar, P.; Satyanarayana, G. Ch.

2017-10-01

The changes in the summer monsoon rainfall over 30 meteorological subdivisions of India with respect to changes in circulation and the Indian Monsoon Index (IMI) have been studied for the period 1953-2012. The relationship between the IMIs in different months and whole season and the corresponding summer monsoon rainfall is studied and tested. The positive and negative extremes are evaluated basing on the normalized values of the deviations from the mean of the IMI. Composite rainfall distributions over India and the zonal wind distributions in the lower and upper troposphere of IMI's both positive and negative extremes are evaluated separately and discussed. In the recent three decades of global warming, the negative values of IMI in July and August lead to weakening of the monsoon system over India. It is observed that the rainfall variations in the Northeast India are different from the rest of India except Tamil Nadu in general.

Evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts by TIGGE ensembles for south China during the presummer rainy season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ling; Luo, Yali

2017-08-01

Based on The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data set, this study evaluates the ability of global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korean Meteorological Administration, and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) to predict presummer rainy season (April-June) precipitation in south China. Evaluation of 5 day forecasts in three seasons (2013-2015) demonstrates the higher skill of probability matching forecasts compared to simple ensemble mean forecasts and shows that the deterministic forecast is a close second. The EPSs overestimate light-to-heavy rainfall (0.1 to 30 mm/12 h) and underestimate heavier rainfall (>30 mm/12 h), with JMA being the worst. By analyzing the synoptic situations predicted by the identified more skillful (ECMWF) and less skillful (JMA and CMA) EPSs and the ensemble sensitivity for four representative cases of torrential rainfall, the transport of warm-moist air into south China by the low-level southwesterly flow, upstream of the torrential rainfall regions, is found to be a key synoptic factor that controls the quantitative precipitation forecast. The results also suggest that prediction of locally produced torrential rainfall is more challenging than prediction of more extensively distributed torrential rainfall. A slight improvement in the performance is obtained by shortening the forecast lead time from 30-36 h to 18-24 h to 6-12 h for the cases with large-scale forcing, but not for the locally produced cases.

A lightning-based nowcast-warning approach for short-duration rainfall events: Development and testing over Beijing during the warm seasons of 2006-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Fan; Cui, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Da-Lin

2018-06-01

Nowcasting short-duration (i.e., <6 h) rainfall (SDR) events is examined using total [i.e., cloud-to-ground (CG) and intra-cloud (IC)] lightning observations over the Beijing Metropolitan Region (BMR) during the warm seasons of 2006-2007. A total of 928 moderate and 554 intense SDR events, i.e., with the respective hourly rainfall rates (HRR) of 10-20 and ≥20 mm h-1, are utilized to estimate sharp-increasing rates in rainfall and lightning flash, termed as rainfall and lightning jumps, respectively. By optimizing the parameters in a lightning jump and a rainfall jump algorithm, their different jump intensity grades are verified for the above two categories of SDR events. Then, their corresponding graded nowcast-warning models are developed for the moderate and intense SDR events, respectively, with a low-grade warning for hitting more SDR events and a high-grade warning for reducing false alarms. Any issued warning in the nowcast-warning models is designed to last for 2 h after the occurrence of a lightning jump. It is demonstrated that the low-grade warnings can have the probability of detection (POD) of 67.8% (87.0%) and the high-grade warnings have the false alarms ratio (FAR) of 27.0% (22.2%) for the moderate (intense) SDR events, with an averaged lead time of 36.7 (52.0) min. The nowcast-warning models are further validated using three typical heavy-rain-producing storms that are independent from those used to develop the models. Results show that the nowcast-warning models can provide encouraging early warnings for the associated SDR events from the regional to meso-γ scales, indicating that they have a great potential in being applied to the other regions where high-resolution total lightning observations are available.

Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wickramagamage, P.

2016-08-01

This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes.

Variations of Sea Surface Temperature, Wind Stress, and Rainfall over the Tropical Atlantic and South America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobre, Paulo; Srukla, J.

1996-10-01

Empirical orthogonal functions (E0Fs) and composite analyses are used to investigate the development of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns over the tropical Atlantic. The evolution of large-scale rainfall anomaly patterns over the equatorial Atlantic and South America are also investigated. 71e EOF analyses revealed that a pattern of anomalous SST and wind stress asymmetric relative to the equator is the dominant mode of interannual and longer variability over the tropical Atlantic. The most important findings of this study are as follows.Atmospheric circulation anomalies precede the development of basinwide anomalous SST patterns over the tropical Atlantic. Anomalous SST originate off the African coast simultaneously with atmospheric circulation anomalies and expand westward afterward. The time lag between wind stress relaxation (strengthening) and maximum SST warming (cooling) is about two months.Anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns over northern tropical Atlantic are phase locked to the seasonal cycle. Composite fields of SLP and wind stress over northern tropical Atlantic can be distinguished from random only within a few months preceding the March-May (MAM) season. Observational evidence is presented to show that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the Pacific influences atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies over northern tropical Atlantic through atmospheric teleconnection patterns into higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.The well-known droughts over northeastern Brazil (Nordeste) are a local manifestation of a much larger-scale rainfall anomaly pattern encompassing the whole equatorial Atlantic and Amazon region. Negative rainfall anomalies to the south of the equator during MAM, which is the rainy season for the Nordeste region, are related to an early withdrawal of the intertropical convergence zone toward the warm SST anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic. Also, it is shown that precipitation anomalies over southern and northern parts of the Nordeste are out of phase: drought years over the northern Nordeste are commonly preceded by wetter years over the southern Nordeste, and vice versa.

Models for estimating daily rainfall erosivity in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yun; Yin, Shui-qing; Liu, Bao-yuan; Nearing, Mark A.; Zhao, Ying

2016-04-01

The rainfall erosivity factor (R) represents the multiplication of rainfall energy and maximum 30 min intensity by event (EI30) and year. This rainfall erosivity index is widely used for empirical soil loss prediction. Its calculation, however, requires high temporal resolution rainfall data that are not readily available in many parts of the world. The purpose of this study was to parameterize models suitable for estimating erosivity from daily rainfall data, which are more widely available. One-minute resolution rainfall data recorded in sixteen stations over the eastern water erosion impacted regions of China were analyzed. The R-factor ranged from 781.9 to 8258.5 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 y-1. A total of 5942 erosive events from one-minute resolution rainfall data of ten stations were used to parameterize three models, and 4949 erosive events from the other six stations were used for validation. A threshold of daily rainfall between days classified as erosive and non-erosive was suggested to be 9.7 mm based on these data. Two of the models (I and II) used power law functions that required only daily rainfall totals. Model I used different model coefficients in the cool season (Oct.-Apr.) and warm season (May-Sept.), and Model II was fitted with a sinusoidal curve of seasonal variation. Both Model I and Model II estimated the erosivity index for average annual, yearly, and half-month temporal scales reasonably well, with the symmetric mean absolute percentage error MAPEsym ranging from 10.8% to 32.1%. Model II predicted slightly better than Model I. However, the prediction efficiency for the daily erosivity index was limited, with the symmetric mean absolute percentage error being 68.0% (Model I) and 65.7% (Model II) and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency being 0.55 (Model I) and 0.57 (Model II). Model III, which used the combination of daily rainfall amount and daily maximum 60-min rainfall, improved predictions significantly, and produced a Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for daily erosivity index prediction of 0.93. Thus daily rainfall data was generally sufficient for estimating annual average, yearly, and half-monthly time scales, while sub-daily data was needed when estimating daily erosivity values.

Indices of climate change based on patterns from CMIP5 models, and the range of projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watterson, I. G.

2018-05-01

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other variables simulated by 40 current climate models for the 21st century are approximated as the product of the global mean warming and a spatial pattern of scaled changes. These fields of standardized change contain consistent features of simulated change, such as larger warming over land and increased high-latitude precipitation. However, they also differ across the ensemble, with standard deviations exceeding 0.2 for temperature over most continents, and 6% per degree for tropical precipitation. These variations are found to correlate, often strongly, with indices based on those of modes of interannual variability. Annular mode indices correlate, across the 40 models, with regional pressure changes and seasonal rainfall changes, particularly in South America and Europe. Equatorial ocean warming rates link to widespread anomalies, similarly to ENSO. A Pacific-Indian Dipole (PID) index representing the gradient in warming across the maritime continent is correlated with Australian rainfall with coefficient r of - 0.8. The component of equatorial warming orthogonal to this index, denoted EQN, has strong links to temperature and rainfall in Africa and the Americas. It is proposed that these indices and their associated patterns might be termed "modes of climate change". This is supported by an analysis of empirical orthogonal functions for the ensemble of standardized fields. Can such indices be used to help constrain projections? The relative similarity of the PID and EQN values of change, from models that have more skilful simulation of the present climate tropical pressure fields, provides a basis for this.

Autochthonous Chikungunya Transmission and Extreme Climate Events in Southern France.

PubMed

Roiz, David; Boussès, Philippe; Simard, Frédéric; Paupy, Christophe; Fontenille, Didier

2015-06-01

Extreme precipitation events are increasing as a result of ongoing global warming, but controversy surrounds the relationship between flooding and mosquito-borne diseases. A common view among the scientific community and public health officers is that heavy rainfalls have a flushing effect on breeding sites, which negatively affects vector populations, thereby diminishing disease transmission. During 2014 in Montpellier, France, there were at least 11 autochthonous cases of chikungunya caused by the invasive tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in the vicinity of an imported case. We show that an extreme rainfall event increased and extended the abundance of the disease vector Ae. albopictus, hence the period of autochthonous transmission of chikungunya. We report results from close monitoring of the adult and egg population of the chikungunya vector Ae. albopictus through weekly sampling over the entire mosquito breeding season, which revealed an unexpected pattern. Statistical analysis of the seasonal dynamics of female abundance in relation to climatic factors showed that these relationships changed after the heavy rainfall event. Before the inundations, accumulated temperatures are the most important variable predicting Ae. albopictus seasonal dynamics. However, after the inundations, accumulated rainfall over the 4 weeks prior to capture predicts the seasonal dynamics of this species and extension of the transmission period. Our empirical data suggests that heavy rainfall events did increase the risk of arbovirus transmission in Southern France in 2014 by favouring a rapid rise in abundance of vector mosquitoes. Further studies should now confirm these results in different ecological contexts, so that the impact of global change and extreme climatic events on mosquito population dynamics and the risk of disease transmission can be adequately understood.

Warm season tree growth and precipitation over Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Therrell, Matthew D.; Stahle, David W.; Cleaveland, Malcolm K.; Villanueva-Diaz, Jose

2002-07-01

We have developed a network of 18 new tree ring chronologies to examine the history of warm season tree growth over Mexico from 1780 to 1992. The chronologies include Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) and Montezuma pine (Pinus montezumae Lamb.) latewood width, and Montezuma bald cypress (Taxodium mucronatum Ten.) total ring width. They are located in southwestern Texas, the Sierra Madre Oriental, Sierra Madre Occidental, and southern Mexico as far south as Oaxaca. Seven of these chronologies are among the first precipitation sensitive tree ring records from the American tropics. Principal component analysis of the chronologies indicates that the primary modes of tree growth variability are divided north and south by the Tropic of Cancer. The tree ring data in northern Mexico (PC1) are most sensitive to June-August rainfall, while the data from southern Mexico (PC2) are sensitive to rainfall in April-June. We find that the mode of tree growth variability over southern Mexico is significantly correlated with the onset of the North American Monsoon. Anomalies in monsoon onset, spring precipitation, and tree growth in southern Mexico all tend to be followed by precipitation anomalies of opposite sign later in the summer over most of central Mexico.

Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Iidentification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability in Observations and Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, Franklin R.; Funk, Chris

2014-01-01

Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Niño, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

Seasonal exposure to drought and air warming affects soil Collembola and mites.

PubMed

Xu, Guo-Liang; Kuster, Thomas M; Günthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S; Dobbertin, Matthias; Li, Mai-He

2012-01-01

Global environmental changes affect not only the aboveground but also the belowground components of ecosystems. The effects of seasonal drought and air warming on the genus level richness of Collembola, and on the abundance and biomass of the community of Collembola and mites were studied in an acidic and a calcareous forest soil in a model oak-ecosystem experiment (the Querco experiment) at the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL in Birmensdorf. The experiment included four climate treatments: control, drought with a 60% reduction in rainfall, air warming with a seasonal temperature increase of 1.4 °C, and air warming + drought. Soil water content was greatly reduced by drought. Soil surface temperature was slightly increased by both the air warming and the drought treatment. Soil mesofauna samples were taken at the end of the first experimental year. Drought was found to increase the abundance of the microarthropod fauna, but reduce the biomass of the community. The percentage of small mites (body length ≤ 0.20 mm) increased, but the percentage of large mites (body length >0.40 mm) decreased under drought. Air warming had only minor effects on the fauna. All climate treatments significantly reduced the richness of Collembola and the biomass of Collembola and mites in acidic soil, but not in calcareous soil. Drought appeared to have a negative impact on soil microarthropod fauna, but the effects of climate change on soil fauna may vary with the soil type.

Seasonal Exposure to Drought and Air Warming Affects Soil Collembola and Mites

PubMed Central

Xu, Guo-Liang; Kuster, Thomas M.; Günthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S.; Dobbertin, Matthias; Li, Mai-He

2012-01-01

Global environmental changes affect not only the aboveground but also the belowground components of ecosystems. The effects of seasonal drought and air warming on the genus level richness of Collembola, and on the abundance and biomass of the community of Collembola and mites were studied in an acidic and a calcareous forest soil in a model oak-ecosystem experiment (the Querco experiment) at the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL in Birmensdorf. The experiment included four climate treatments: control, drought with a 60% reduction in rainfall, air warming with a seasonal temperature increase of 1.4°C, and air warming + drought. Soil water content was greatly reduced by drought. Soil surface temperature was slightly increased by both the air warming and the drought treatment. Soil mesofauna samples were taken at the end of the first experimental year. Drought was found to increase the abundance of the microarthropod fauna, but reduce the biomass of the community. The percentage of small mites (body length 0.20 mm) increased, but the percentage of large mites (body length >0.40 mm) decreased under drought. Air warming had only minor effects on the fauna. All climate treatments significantly reduced the richness of Collembola and the biomass of Collembola and mites in acidic soil, but not in calcareous soil. Drought appeared to have a negative impact on soil microarthropod fauna, but the effects of climate change on soil fauna may vary with the soil type. PMID:22905210

Fewer rainy days and more extreme rainfall by the end of the century in Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohl, Benjamin; Macron, Clémence; Monerie, Paul-Arthur

2017-04-01

Future changes in the structure of daily rainfall, especially the number of rainy days and the intensity of extreme events, are likely to induce major impacts on rain-fed agriculture in the tropics. In Africa this issue is of primary importance, but the agreement between climate models to simulate such descriptors of rainfall is generally poor. Here, we show that the climate models used for the fifth assessment report of IPCC simulate a marked decrease in the number of rainy days, together with a strong increase in the rainfall amounts during the 1% wettest days, by the end of the 21st century over Southern Africa. These combined changes lead to an apparent stability of seasonal totals, but are likely to alter the quality of the rainy season. These evolutions are due to the superposition of slowly-changing moisture fluxes, mainly supported by increased hygrometric capacity associated with global warming, and unchanged short-term atmospheric configurations in which extreme events are embedded. This could cause enhanced floods or droughts, stronger soil erosion and nutriment loss, questioning the sustainability of food security for the 300 million people currently living in Africa south of the Equator.

Assessing Climate Change in Early Warm Season and Impacts on Wildfire Potential in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Kim, S. H.; Kim, J.; Nghiem, S. V.; Fujioka, F.; Myoung, B.

2016-12-01

Wildfires are an important concern in the Southwestern United States (SWUS) where the prevalent semi-arid to arid climate, vegetation types and hot and dry warm seasons challenge strategic fire management. Although they are part of the natural cycle related to the region's climate, significant growth of urban areas and expansion of the wildland-urban interface, have made wildfires a serious high-risk hazard. Previous studies also showed that the SWUS region is prone to frequent droughts due to large variations in wet season rainfall and has suffered from a number of severe wildfires in the recent decades. Despite the increasing trend in large wildfires, future wildfire risk assessment studies at regional scales for proactive adaptations are lacking. Our previous study revealed strong correlations between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and temperatures during March-June in SWUS. The abnormally warm and dry conditions in an NAO-positive spring, combined with reduced winter precipitation, can cause an early start of a fire season and extend it for several seasons, from late spring to fall. A strong interannual variation of the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) during the early warm season was also found in the 35 year period 1979 - 2013 of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Thus, it is crucial to investigate the climate change impact that early warm season temperatures have on future wildfire danger potential. Our study reported here examines fine-resolution fire-weather variables for 2041-2070 projected in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The high-resolution climate data were obtained from multiple regional climate models (RCM) driven by multiple climate scenarios projected from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in conjunction with multiple greenhouse gas concentration pathways. The local wildfire potential in future climate is investigated using both the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) which have been widely used for assessing wildfire potential in the U.S.A and Canada, respectively.

Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with ENSO and Tropical Circulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric

1999-01-01

Tropical precipitation and the accompanying latent heat release is the engine that drives the global circulation. An increase or decrease in rainfall in the tropics not only leads to the local effects of flooding or drought, but contributes to changes in the large scale circulation and global climate system. Rainfall in the tropics is highly variable, both seasonally (monsoons) and interannually (ENSO). Two experimental observational data sets, developed under the auspices of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), are used in this study to examine the relationships between global precipitation and ENSO and extreme monsoon events over the past 20 years. The V2x79 monthly product is a globally complete, 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg, satellite-gauge merged data set that covers the period 1979 to the present. Indices based on patterns of satellite-derived rainfall anomalies in the Pacific are used to analyze the teleconnections between ENSO and global precipitation, with emphasis on the monsoon systems. It has been well documented that dry (wet) Asian monsoons accompany warm (cold) ENSO events. However, during the summer seasons of the 1997/98 ENSO the precipitation anomalies were mostly positive over India and the Bay of Bengal, which may be related to an epoch-scale variability in the Asian monsoon circulation. The North American monsoon may be less well linked to ENSO, but a positive precipitation anomaly was observed over Mexico around the September following the 1997/98 event. For the twenty-year record, precipitation and SST patterns in the tropics are analyzed during wet and dry monsoons. For the Asian summer monsoon, positive rainfall anomalies accompany two distinct patterns of tropical precipitation and a warm Indian Ocean. Negative anomalies coincide with a wet Maritime Continent.

Observed formation of easterly waves over northeast Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jury, Mark R.

2018-06-01

This study explores the thermodynamic and kinematic features of easterly waves over northeast Africa in July-September season 2005-2015. A daily African easterly wave (AEW) index is formulated from transient satellite rainfall and reanalysis vorticity, and the ten most intense cases are studied by composite analysis. Surface moisture is advected from central Africa towards the Red Sea during AEW formation. The anomalous 600 hPa wind circulation is comprized of a cyclonic-south anticyclonic-north rotor pair and accentuated easterly jet along 17N. Composite convection is initiated over Ethiopia and subsequently intensifies following interaction with a zonal circulation located downstream. Composite AEW temperature anomalies reveal a cool lower-warm upper layer heating profile. 2-8 day variance of satellite OLR reaches a maximum over the southern Arabian Peninsula, suggesting an upstream role for surface heating and the Somali Jet. The large scale environment is analyzed by regression of the AEW index onto daily fields of rainfall, surface air pressure and temperature in July-September season ( N = 1004). The rainfall regression reflects a westward propagating AEW wave-train of higher values on 13N and lower values on 7N with a longitude spacing of 25°. The air pressure and temperature regression features a N-S dipole indicating an anomalous northward ITCZ. A low pressure signal west of the Maritime Continent coupled with a warm zone across the South Indian Ocean coincides with AEW formation over the eastern Sahel.

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C.; Hoell, A.; Shukla, S.; Bladé, I.; Liebmann, B.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Husak, G.

2014-12-01

In eastern East Africa (the southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya and southern Somalia region), poor boreal spring (long wet season) rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers implement disaster risk reduction measures while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent East African droughts to a stronger Walker circulation, resulting from warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool and an increased east-to-west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the western Pacific, we show that the two dominant modes of East African boreal spring rainfall variability are tied to SST fluctuations in the western central Pacific and central Indian Ocean, respectively. Variations in these two rainfall modes can thus be predicted using two SST indices - the western Pacific gradient (WPG) and central Indian Ocean index (CIO), with our statistical forecasts exhibiting reasonable cross-validated skill (rcv ≈ 0.6). In contrast, the current generation of coupled forecast models show no skill during the long rains. Our SST indices also appear to capture most of the major recent drought events such as 2000, 2009 and 2011. Predictions based on these simple indices can be used to support regional forecasting efforts and land surface data assimilations to help inform early warning and guide climate outlooks.

Climatology of monsoon precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau from 13-year TRMM observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aijuan, Bai; Guoping, Li

2016-10-01

Based on the 13-year data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite during 2001-2013, the influencing geographical location of the Tibetan Plateau (Plateau) monsoon is determined. It is found that the domain of the Plateau monsoon is bounded by the latitude between 27° N and 37° N and the longitude between 60° E and 103° E. According to the annual relative precipitation, the Plateau monsoon can be divided into three sections: the Plateau winter monsoon (PWM) over Iran and Afghanistan, the Plateau summer monsoon (PSM) over the central Plateau, and the transiting zone of the Plateau monsoon (TPM) over the south, west, and east edges of the Plateau. In PWM and PSM, the monsoon climatology has a shorter rainy season with the mean annual rainfall of less than 800 mm. In TPM, it has a longer rainy season with the mean annual rainfall of more than 1800 mm. PWM experiences a single-peak monthly rainfall with the peak during January to March; PSM usually undergoes a multi-peak pattern with peaks in the warm season; TPM presents a double-peak pattern, with a strong peak in late spring to early summer and a secondary peak in autumn. The Plateau monsoon also characterizes an asymmetrical seasonal advance of the rain belt. In the east of the Plateau, the rain belt migrates in a south-north orientation under the impact of the tropical and subtropical systems' oscillation. In the west of the Plateau, the rain belt advances in an east-west direction, which is mainly controlled by the regional Plateau monsoon.

The tropical rain belts with an annual cycle and a continent model intercomparison project: TRACMIP

DOE PAGES

Voigt, Aiko; Biasutti, Michela; Scheff, Jacob; ...

2016-11-16

This paper introduces the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP). TRACMIP studies the dynamics of tropical rain belts and their response to past and future radiative forcings through simulations with 13 comprehensive and one simplified atmosphere models coupled to a slab ocean and driven by seasonally-varying insolation. Five idealized experiments, two with an aquaplanet setup and three with a setup with an idealized tropical continent, fill the space between prescribed-SST aquaplanet simulations and realistic simulations provided by CMIP5/6. The simulations reproduce key features of the present-day climate and expected future climate change,more » including an annual-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) that is located north of the equator and Hadley cells and eddy-driven jets that are similar to the present-day climate. Quadrupling CO 2 leads to a northward ITCZ shift and preferential warming in Northern high-latitudes. The simulations show interesting CO 2-induced changes in the seasonal excursion of the ITCZ and indicate a possible state-dependence of climate sensitivity. The inclusion of an idealized continent modulates both the control climate and the response to increased CO 2; for example it reduces the northward ITCZ shift associated with warming and, in some models, climate sensitivity. In response to eccentricity-driven seasonal insolation changes, seasonal changes in oceanic rainfall are best characterized as a meridional dipole, while seasonal continental rainfall changes tend to be symmetric about the equator. Finally, this survey illustrates TRACMIP’s potential to engender a deeper understanding of global and regional climate phenomena and to address pressing questions on past and future climate change.« less

The Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project: TRACMIP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Voigt, Aiko; Biasutti, Michela; Scheff, Jacob; Bader, Juergen; Bordoni, Simona; Codron, Francis; Dixon, Ross D.; Jonas, Jeffrey; Kang, Sarah M.; Klingaman, Nicholas P.;

Impact of La Niña and La Niña Modoki on Indonesia rainfall variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidayat, R.; Juniarti, MD; Ma’rufah, U.

2018-05-01

La Niña events are indicated by cooling SST in central and eastern equatorial Pacific. While La Niña Modoki occurrences are indicated by cooling SST in central Pacific and warming SST in western and eastern equatorial Pacific. These two events are influencing rainfall variability in several regions including Indonesia. The objective of this study is to analyse the impact of La Niña and La Niña Modoki on Indonesian rainfall variability. We found the Nino 3.4 index is highly correlated (r = -0.95) with Indonesian rainfall. Positive rainfall anomalies up to 200 mm/month occurred mostly in Indonesian region during La Niña events, but in DJF several areas of Sumatera, Kalimantan and eastern Indonesia tend to have negative rainfall. During La Niña Modoki events, positive rainfall anomaly (up to 50 mm/month) occurred in Sumatera Island, Kalimantan, Java and eastern Indonesia in DJF and up to 175 mm/month occurred only in Java Island in MAM season. La Niña events have strong cooling SST in central and eastern equatorial Pacific (-1.5°C) in DJF. While La Niña Modoki events warming SST occurred in western and eastern equatorial Pacific (0.75°C) and cooling SST in central Pacific (- 0.75°C) in DJF and MAM. Walker circulation in La Niña Modoki events (on DJF and MAM) showed strong convergence in eastern Pacific, and weak convergence in western Pacific (Indonesia).

Climate change in Bangladesh: a spatio-temporal analysis and simulation of recent temperature and rainfall data using GIS and time series analysis model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Md. Rejaur; Lateh, Habibah

2017-04-01

In this paper, temperature and rainfall data series were analysed from 34 meteorological stations distributed throughout Bangladesh over a 40-year period (1971 to 2010) in order to evaluate the magnitude of these changes statistically and spatially. Linear regression, coefficient of variation, inverse distance weighted interpolation techniques and geographical information systems were performed to analyse the trends, variability and spatial patterns of temperature and rainfall. Autoregressive integrated moving average time series model was used to simulate the temperature and rainfall data. The results confirm a particularly strong and recent climate change in Bangladesh with a 0.20 °C per decade upward trend of mean temperature. The highest upward trend in minimum temperature (range of 0.80-2.4 °C) was observed in the northern, northwestern, northeastern, central and central southern parts while greatest warming in the maximum temperature (range of 1.20-2.48 °C) was found in the southern, southeastern and northeastern parts during 1971-2010. An upward trend of annual rainfall (+7.13 mm per year) and downward pre-monsoon (-0.75 mm per year) and post-monsoon rainfall (-0.55 mm per year) trends were observed during this period. Rainfall was erratic in pre-monsoon season and even more so during the post-monsoon season (variability of 44.84 and 85.25 % per year, respectively). The mean forecasted temperature exhibited an increase of 0.018 °C per year in 2011-2020, and if this trend continues, this would lead to approximately 1.0 °C warmer temperatures in Bangladesh by 2020, compared to that of 1971. A greater rise is projected for the mean minimum (0.20 °C) than the mean maximum (0.16 °C) temperature. Annual rainfall is projected to decline 153 mm from 2011 to 2020, and a drying condition will persist in the northwestern, western and southwestern parts of the country during the pre- and post-monsoonal seasons.

Disentangling Seasonality and Mean Annual Precipitation in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool: Insights from Coupled Plant Wax C and H Isotope Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galy, V.; Oppo, D.; Dubois, N.; Arbuszewski, J. A.; Mohtadi, M.; Schefuss, E.; Rosenthal, Y.; Linsley, B. K.

2016-12-01

There is ample evidence suggesting that rainfall distribution across the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) - a key component of the global climate system - has substantially varied over the last deglaciation. Yet, the precise nature of these hydroclimate changes remains to be elucidated. In particular, the relative importance of variations in precipitation seasonality versus annual precipitation amount is essentially unknown. Here we use a set of surface sediments from the IPWP covering a wide range of modern hydroclimate conditions to evaluate how plant wax stable isotope composition records rainfall distribution in the area. We focus on long chain fatty acids, which are exclusively produced by vascular plants living on nearby land and delivered to the ocean by rivers. We relate the C (δ13C) and H (δD) isotope composition of long chain fatty acids preserved in surface sediments to modern precipitation distribution and stable isotope composition in their respective source area. We show that: 1) δ13C values reflect vegetation distribution (in particular the relative abundance of C3 and C4 plants) and are primarily recording precipitation seasonality (Dubois et al., 2014) and, 2) once corrected for plant fractionation effects, δD values reflect the amount-weighted average stable isotope composition of precipitation and are primarily recording annual precipitation amounts. We propose that combining the C and H isotope composition of long chain fatty acids thus allows independent reconstructions of precipitation seasonality and annual amounts in the IPWP. The practical implications for reconstructing past hydroclimate in the IPWP will be discussed.

Effects of warming and nitrogen fertilization on GHG flux in the permafrost region of an alpine meadow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiaopeng; Wang, Genxu; Zhang, Tao; Mao, Tianxu; Wei, Da; Hu, Zhaoyong; Song, Chunlin

2017-05-01

The limited number of in situ measurements of greenhouse gas (GHG) flux during soil freeze-thaw cycles in permafrost regions limits our ability to accurately predict how the alpine ecosystem carbon sink or source function will vary under future warming and increased nitrogen (N) deposition. An alpine meadow in the permafrost region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was selected, and a simulated warming with N fertilization experiment was carried out to investigate the key GHG fluxes (ecosystem respiration [Re], CH4 and N2O) in the early (EG), mid (MG) and late (LG) growing seasons. The results showed that: (i) warming (4.5 °C) increased the average seasonal Re, CH4 uptake and N2O emission by 73.5%, 65.9% and 431.6%, respectively. N fertilization (4 g N m-2) alone had no significant effect on GHG flux; the interaction of warming and N fertilization enhanced CH4 uptake by 10.3% and N2O emissions by 27.2% than warming, while there was no significant effect on the Re; (ii) the average seasonal fluxes of Re, CH4 and N2O were MG > LG > EG, and Re and CH4 uptake were most sensitive to the soil freezing process instead of soil thawing process; (iii) surface soil temperature was the main driving factor of the Re and CH4 fluxes, and the N2O flux was mainly affected by daily rainfall; (iv) in the growing season, warming increased greenhouse warming potential (GWP) of the alpine meadow by 74.5%, the N fertilization decreased GWP of the warming plots by 13.9% but it was not statistically significant. These results indicate that (i) relative to future climate warming (or permafrost thawing), there could be a hysteresis of GHG flux in the alpine meadow of permafrost region; (ii) under the scenario of climate warming, increasing N deposition has limited impacts on the feedback of GHG flux of the alpine meadow.

Hydro-climate and ecological behaviour of the drought of Amazonia in 2005.

PubMed

Marengo, J A; Nobre, C A; Tomasella, J; Cardoso, M F; Oyama, M D

2008-05-27

In 2005, southwestern Amazonia experienced the effects of an intense drought that affected life and biodiversity. Several major tributaries as well as parts of the main river itself contained only a fraction of their normal volumes of water, and lakes were drying up. The consequences for local people, animals and the forest itself are impossible to estimate now, but they are likely to be serious. The analyses indicate that the drought was manifested as weak peak river season during autumn to winter as a consequence of a weak summertime season in southwestern Amazonia; the winter season was also accompanied by rainfall that sometimes reached 25% of the climatic value, being anomalously warm and dry and helping in the propagation of fires. Analyses of climatic and hydrological records in Amazonia suggest a broad consensus that the 2005 drought was linked not to El Niño as with most previous droughts in the Amazon, but to warming sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean.

Agriculturally Relevant Climate Extremes and Their Trends in the World's Major Growing Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Xiao; Troy, Tara J.

2018-04-01

Climate extremes can negatively impact crop production, and climate change is expected to affect the frequency and severity of extremes. Using a combination of in situ station measurements (Global Historical Climatology Network's Daily data set) and multiple other gridded data products, a derived 1° data set of growing season climate indices and extremes is compiled over the major growing regions for maize, wheat, soybean, and rice for 1951-2006. This data set contains growing season climate indices that are agriculturally relevant, such as the number of hot days, duration of dry spells, and rainfall intensity. Before 1980, temperature-related indices had few trends; after 1980, statistically significant warming trends exist for each crop in the majority of growing regions. In particular, crops have increasingly been exposed to extreme hot temperatures, above which yields have been shown to decline. Rainfall trends are less consistent compared to temperature, with some regions receiving more rainfall and others less. Anomalous temperature and precipitation conditions are shown to often occur concurrently, with dry growing seasons more likely to be hotter, have larger drought indices, and have larger vapor pressure deficits. This leads to the confluence of a variety of climate conditions that negatively impact crop yields. These results show a consistent increase in global agricultural exposure to negative climate conditions since 1980.

Interannual variability and predictability over the Arabian Penuinsula Winter monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adnan Abid, Muhammad; Kucharski, Fred; Almazroui, Mansour; Kang, In-Sik

2016-04-01

Interannual winter rainfall variability and its predictability are analysed over the Arabian Peninsula region by using observed and hindcast datasets from the state-of-the-art European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal prediction System 4 for the period 1981-2010. An Arabian winter monsoon index (AWMI) is defined to highlight the Arabian Peninsula as the most representative region for the Northern Hemispheric winter dominating the summer rainfall. The observations show that the rainfall variability is relatively large over the northeast of the Arabian Peninsula. The correlation coefficient between the Nino3.4 index and rainfall in this region is 0.33, suggesting potentially some modest predictability, and indicating that El Nino increases and La Nina decreases the rainfall. Regression analysis shows that upper-level cyclonic circulation anomalies that are forced by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are responsible for the winter rainfall anomalies over the Arabian region. The stronger (weaker) mean transient-eddy activity related to the upper-level trough induced by the warm (cold) sea-surface temperatures during El Nino (La Nina) tends to increase (decrease) the rainfall in the region. The model hindcast dataset reproduces the ENSO-rainfall connection. The seasonal mean predictability of the northeast Arabian rainfall index is 0.35. It is shown that the noise variance is larger than the signal over the Arabian Peninsula region, which tends to limit the prediction skill. The potential predictability is generally increased in ENSO years and is, in particular, larger during La Nina compared to El Nino years in the region. Furthermore, central Pacific ENSO events and ENSO events with weak signals in the Indian Ocean tend to increase predictability over the Arabian region.

Assessing the impact of climate-change scenarios on landslide occurrence in Umbria Region, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciabatta, L.; Camici, S.; Brocca, L.; Ponziani, F.; Stelluti, M.; Berni, N.; Moramarco, T.

2016-10-01

Landslides are frequent and widespread geomorphological phenomena causing loss of human life and damage to property. The main tool for assessing landslide risk relies on rainfall thresholds and thus, many countries established early warning systems aimed to landslide hazard assessment. The Umbria Region Civil Protection Centre developed an operational early warning system for landslide risk assessment, named PRESSCA, based on the soil saturation conditions to identify rainfall thresholds. These thresholds, currently used by the Civil Protection operators for the day-by-day landslide hazard assessment, provided satisfactory results with more than 86% of the landslides events correctly identified during the period 1990-2013. In this study, the PRESSCA system was employed for the assessment of climate change impact on landslide hazard in Central Italy. The outputs of five different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were downscaled and weather generators were used for obtaining hourly rainfall and temperature time series from daily GCMs projection. Then, PRESSCA system was employed to estimate the number of landslide occurrence per year. By comparing results obtained for three different periods (1990-2013 (baseline), 2040-2069 and 2070-2099), for the Umbria territory a general increase in events occurrence was expected (up to more than 40%) in the future period, mainly during the winter season. The results also revealed that the effect of climate change on landslides was not straightforward to identify and the close interaction between rainfall magnitude/intensity, temperature and soil moisture should be analysed in depth. Overall, soil moisture was projected to decrease throughout the year but during the wet season the variations with respect to the present period were very small. Specifically, it was found that during the warm-dry season, due to the strong decrease of soil moisture, even for a sensible increase in rainfall intensity, the landslide occurrence was unchanged. Conversely, during the cold-wet season, the number of landslide events increased considerably if a positive variation in rainfall amount, more significant than rainfall intensity, was coupled with small negative variations in soil moisture.

Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulations over the Contiguous United States Including Potential Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Changhai; Rasmussen, Roy; Ikeda, Kyoko; Barlage, Michael; Chen, Fei; Clark, Martyn; Dai, Aiguo; Dudhia, Jimy; Gochis, David; Gutmann, Ethan; Li, Yanping; Newman, Andrew; Thompson, Gregory

2016-04-01

The WRF model with a domain size of 1360x1016x51 points, using a 4 km spacing to encompass most of North America, is employed to investigate the water cycle and climate change impacts over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Four suites of numerical experiments are being conducted, consisting of a 13-year retrospective simulation forced with ERA-I reanalysis, a 13-year climate sensitivity or Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) simulation, and two 10-year CMIP5-based historical/future period simulations based on a revised bias-correction method. The major objectives are: 1) to evaluate high-resolution WRF's capability to capture orographic precipitation and snow mass balance over the western CONUS and convective precipitation over the eastern CONUS; 2) to assess future changes of seasonal snowfall and snowpack and associated hydrological cycles along with their regional variability across the different mountain barriers and elevation dependency, in response to the CMIP5 projected 2071-2100 climate warming; 3) to examine the precipitation changes under the projected global warming, with an emphasis on precipitation extremes and the warm-season precipitation corridor in association with MCS tracks in the central US; and 4) to provide a valuable community dataset for regional climate change and impact studies. Preliminary analysis of the retrospective simulation shows both seasonal/sub-seasonal precipitation and temperature are well reproduced, with precipitation bias being within 10% of the observations and temperature bias being below 1 degree C in most seasons and locations. The observed annual cycle of snow water equivalent (SWE), such as peak time and disappearance time, is also realistically replicated, even though the peak value is somewhat underestimated. The PGW simulation shows a large cold-season warming in northeast US and eastern Canada, possibly associated with snow albedo feedback, and a strong summer warming in north central US in association with precipitation reduction. There is an increase in annual rainfall/precipitation, but a sharp reduction in snowfall/snowpack in response to the global warming. A pronounced seasonal feature is the suppressed summertime precipitation in central US for the warmer climate. More detailed analysis of the modeling results is presently under way and will be presented in the meeting.

Longer growing seasons shift grassland vegetation towards more-productive species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fridley, Jason D.; Lynn, Josh S.; Grime, J. P.; Askew, A. P.

2016-09-01

Despite advances in plant functional ecology that provide a framework for predicting the responses of vegetation to environmental change, links between plant functional strategies and elevated temperatures are poorly understood. Here, we analyse the response of a species-rich grassland in northern England to two decades of temperature and rainfall manipulations in the context of the functional attributes of 21 coexisting species that represent a large array of resource-use strategies. Three principal traits, including body size (canopy height), tissue investment (leaf construction cost), and seed size, varied independently across species and reflect tradeoffs associated with competitiveness, stress tolerance, and colonization ability. Unlike past studies, our results reveal a strong association between functional traits and temperature regime; species favoured by extended growing seasons have taller canopies and faster assimilation rates, which has come at the expense of those species of high tissue investment. This trait-warming association was three times higher in deep soils, suggesting species shifts have been strongly mediated by competition. In contrast, vegetation shifts from rainfall manipulations have been associated only with tissue investment. Functional shifts towards faster growing species in response to warming may be responsible for a marginal increase in productivity in a system that was assumed to be nutrient-limited.

Use of dynamical downscaling to improve the simulation of Central U.S. warm season precipitation in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harding, Keith J.; Snyder, Peter K.; Liess, Stefan

2013-11-01

supporting exceptionally productive agricultural lands, the Central U.S. is susceptible to severe droughts and floods. Such precipitation extremes are expected to worsen with climate change. However, future projections are highly uncertain as global climate models (GCMs) generally fail to resolve precipitation extremes. In this study, we assess how well models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulate summer means, variability, extremes, and the diurnal cycle of Central U.S. summer rainfall. Output from a subset of historical CMIP5 simulations are used to drive the Weather Research and Forecasting model to determine whether dynamical downscaling improves the representation of Central U.S. rainfall. We investigate which boundary conditions influence dynamically downscaled precipitation estimates and identify GCMs that can reasonably simulate precipitation when downscaled. The CMIP5 models simulate the seasonal mean and variability of summer rainfall reasonably well but fail to resolve extremes, the diurnal cycle, and the dynamic forcing of precipitation. Downscaling to 30 km improves these characteristics of precipitation, with the greatest improvement in the representation of extremes. Additionally, sizeable diurnal cycle improvements occur with higher (10 km) resolution and convective parameterization disabled, as the daily rainfall peak shifts 4 h closer to observations than 30 km resolution simulations. This lends greater confidence that the mechanisms responsible for producing rainfall are better simulated. Because dynamical downscaling can more accurately simulate these aspects of Central U.S. summer rainfall, policymakers can have added confidence in dynamically downscaled rainfall projections, allowing for more targeted adaptation and mitigation.

Evaluation of GPM IMERG Early, Late, and Final rainfall estimates using WegenerNet gauge data in southeastern Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O, Sungmin; Foelsche, Ulrich; Kirchengast, Gottfried; Fuchsberger, Juergen; Tan, Jackson; Petersen, Walter A.

2017-12-01

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) products provide quasi-global (60° N-60° S) precipitation estimates, beginning March 2014, from the combined use of passive microwave (PMW) and infrared (IR) satellites comprising the GPM constellation. The IMERG products are available in the form of near-real-time data, i.e., IMERG Early and Late, and in the form of post-real-time research data, i.e., IMERG Final, after monthly rain gauge analysis is received and taken into account. In this study, IMERG version 3 Early, Late, and Final (IMERG-E,IMERG-L, and IMERG-F) half-hourly rainfall estimates are compared with gauge-based gridded rainfall data from the WegenerNet Feldbach region (WEGN) high-density climate station network in southeastern Austria. The comparison is conducted over two IMERG 0.1° × 0.1° grid cells, entirely covered by 40 and 39 WEGN stations each, using data from the extended summer season (April-October) for the first two years of the GPM mission. The entire data are divided into two rainfall intensity ranges (low and high) and two seasons (warm and hot), and we evaluate the performance of IMERG, using both statistical and graphical methods. Results show that IMERG-F rainfall estimates are in the best overall agreement with the WEGN data, followed by IMERG-L and IMERG-E estimates, particularly for the hot season. We also illustrate, through rainfall event cases, how insufficient PMW sources and errors in motion vectors can lead to wide discrepancies in the IMERG estimates. Finally, by applying the method of Villarini and Krajewski (2007), we find that IMERG-F half-hourly rainfall estimates can be regarded as a 25 min gauge accumulation, with an offset of +40 min relative to its nominal time.

Variability of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation during the Holocene and possible forcing mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Fuzhi; Ma, Chunmei; Zhu, Cheng; Lu, Huayu; Zhang, Xiaojian; Huang, Kangyou; Guo, Tianhong; Li, Kaifeng; Li, Lan; Li, Bing; Zhang, Wenqing

2018-03-01

Projecting how the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall will change with global warming is essential for human sustainability. Reconstructing Holocene climate can provide critical insight into its forcing and future variability. However, quantitative reconstructions of Holocene summer precipitation are lacking for tropical and subtropical China, which is the core region of the EASM influence. Here we present high-resolution annual and summer rainfall reconstructions covering the whole Holocene based on the pollen record at Xinjie site from the lower Yangtze region. Summer rainfall was less seasonal and 30% higher than modern values at 10-6 cal kyr BP and gradually declined thereafter, which broadly followed the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Over the last two millennia, however, the summer rainfall has deviated from the downward trend of summer insolation. We argue that greenhouse gas forcing might have offset summer insolation forcing and contributed to the late Holocene rainfall anomaly, which is supported by the TraCE-21 ka transient simulation. Besides, tropical sea-surface temperatures could modulate summer rainfall by affecting evaporation of seawater. The rainfall pattern concurs with stalagmite and other proxy records from southern China but differs from mid-Holocene rainfall maximum recorded in arid/semiarid northern China. Summer rainfall in northern China was strongly suppressed by high-northern-latitude ice volume forcing during the early Holocene in spite of high summer insolation. In addition, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation might be responsible for droughts of northern China and floods of southern China during the late Holocene. Furthermore, quantitative rainfall reconstructions indicate that the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) simulations underestimate the magnitude of Holocene precipitation changes. Our results highlight the spatial and temporal variability of the Holocene EASM precipitation and potential forcing mechanisms, which are very helpful for calibration of paleoclimate models and prediction of future precipitation changes in East Asia in the scenario of global warming.

Advancing a Model-Validated Statistical Method for Decomposing the Key Oceanic Drivers of Observed Regional Climate Variability and Evaluating Model Performance: Focus on North African Rainfall in CESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Notaro, M.; Yu, Y.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Wei, Y.

2016-12-01

North (N.) African rainfall is characterized by dramatic interannual to decadal variability with serious socio-economic ramifications. The Sahel and West African Monsoon (WAM) region experienced a dramatic shift to persistent drought by the late 1960s, while the Horn of Africa (HOA) underwent drying since the 1990s. Large disagreementregarding the dominant oceanic drivers of N. African hydrologic variability exists among modeling studies, leading to notable spread in Sahel summer rainfall projections for this century among Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models. In order to gain a deeper understanding of the oceanic drivers of N. African rainfall and establish a benchmark for model evaluation, a statistical method, the multivariate Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment, is validated and applied to observations and a control run from the Community Earth System Model (CESM). This study represents the first time that the dominant oceanic drivers of N. African rainfall were evaluated and systematically compared between observations and model simulations. CESM and the observations consistently agree that tropical oceanic modes are the dominant controls of N. African rainfall. During the monsoon season, CESM and observations agree that an anomalously warm eastern tropical Pacific shifts the Walker Circulation eastward, with its descending branch supporting Sahel drying. CESM and the observations concur that a warmer tropical eastern Atlantic favors a southward-shifted Intertropical Convergence Zone, which intensifies WAM monsoonal rainfall. An observed reduction in Sahel rainfall accompanies this enhanced WAM rainfall, yet is confined to the Atlantic in CESM. During the short rains, both observations and CESM indicate that a positive phase of tropical Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode [anomalously warm (cold) in western (eastern) Indian] enhances HOA rainfall. The observed IOD impacts are limited to the short rains, while the simulated impacts are year-round.

Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal air temperature and rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin, China during 1960-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Lifang; Wang, Lunche; Lai, Zhongping; Tian, Qing; Liu, Wen; Li, Jun

2017-11-01

The variation characteristics of air temperature and precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China during 1960-2015 were analysed using a linear regression (LR) analysis, a Mann-Kendall (MK) test with Sen's slope estimator and Sen's innovative trend analysis (ITA). The results showed that the annual maximum, minimum and mean temperature significantly increased at the rate of 0.15°C/10yr, 0.23°C/10yr and 0.19°C/10yr, respectively, over the whole study area during 1960-2015. The warming magnitudes for the above variables during 1980-2015 were much higher than those during 1960-2015:0.38°C/10yr, 0.35°C/10yr and 0.36°C/10yr, respectively. The seasonal maximum, minimum and mean temperature significantly increased in the spring, autumn and winter seasons during 1960-2015. Although the summer temperatures also increased at some extent, only the minimum temperature showed a significant increasing trend. Meanwhile, the highest rate of increase of seasonal mean temperature occurred in winter (0.24°C/10yr) during 1960-2015 and spring (0.50°C/10yr) during 1980-2015, which indicated that the significant warming trend for the whole YRB could be attributed to the remarkable temperature increases in winter and spring months. However, both the annual and seasonal warming magnitudes showed large regional differences, and a higher warming rate was detected in the eastern YRB and the western source region of the Yangtze River on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Additionally, annual precipitation increased by approximately 12.02 mm/10yr during 1960-2015 but decreased at the rate of 19.63 mm/10yr during 1980-2015. There were decreasing trends for precipitation in all four seasons since 1980 in the YRB, and a significant increasing trend was only detected in summer since 1960 (12.37 mm/10yr). Overall, a warming-wetting trend was detected in the south-eastern and north-western YRB, while there was a warming-drying trend in middle regions.

A Multiseason Comparison of the Forecast Skills among Three Numerical Models over Southcentral United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, D.; Reddy, S.

2005-05-01

During the summer 2003 and winter 2003-2004, three mesoscale numerical models, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), Navy's Coupled Ocean/Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) and the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), were operationally run at a horizontal resolution of 27 km twice daily in Jackson State University (JSU). Three models were run by the initial and lateral boundary conditions from AVN data. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performances of three models during these two seasons. It was found that the temporal variation of distribution and strength of mean error (ME) biases at 12, 24 and 36h was rather weak for surface temperature, sea level pressure and surface wind speed. During two seasons, the MM5 underpredicted the seasonal precipitation while the COAMPS and WRF overpredicted. This is consistent with the statistical score analyses of rainfall. The Bias scores revealed that the MM5 yielded an underprediction of precipitation, especially for heavier rainfall events. Due to the under estimate of rainfall areas and strength, the MM5 presented the lower TS, POD and KSS scores at lighter rainfall events compared to the COAMPS and WRF. At moderate to heavier thresholds, three models produced rather low KSS and POD scores that are consistent with the high FAR values. The WRF skills in predicting precipitation heavily depend on the performance of cumulus parameterization scheme. Instead of Kain-Fritsch scheme, using other two schemes, Grell-Devenyi and Bette-Miller-Janjic, in the WRF for warm season 2003 demonstrated that the precipitation overprediction had been efficiently suppressed. Overall, the performances of three models revealed that the best skill is at 12h and the worst at 36h.

Attributing Tropical Cyclogenesis to Equatorial Waves in the Western North Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schreck, Carl J., III; Molinari, John; Mohr, Karen I.

2009-01-01

The direct influences of equatorial waves on the genesis of tropical cyclones are evaluated. Tropical cyclogenesis is attributed to an equatorial wave when the filtered rainfall anomaly exceeds a threshold value at the genesis location. For an attribution threshold of 3 mm/day, 51% of warm season western North Pacific tropical cyclones are attributed to tropical depression (TD)-type disturbances, 29% to equatorial Rossby waves, 26% to mixed Rossby-Gravity waves, 23% to Kelvin waves, 13% to the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), and 19% are not attributed to any equatorial wave. The fraction of tropical cyclones attributed to TD-type disturbances is consistent with previous findings. Past studies have also demonstrated that the MJO significantly modulates tropical cyclogenesis, but fewer storms are attributed to the MJO than any other wave type. This disparity arises from the difference between attribution and modulation. The MJO produces broad regions of favorable conditions for cyclogenesis, but the MJO alone might not determine when and where a storm will develop within these regions. Tropical cyclones contribute less than 17% of the power in any portion of the equatorial wave spectrum because tropical cyclones are relatively uncommon equatorward of 15deg latitude. In regions where they are active, however, tropical cyclones can contribute more than 20% of the warm season rainfall and up to 50% of the total variance. Tropical cyclone-related anomalies can significantly contaminate wave-filtered precipitation at the location of genesis. To mitigate this effect, the tropical cyclone-related rainfall anomalies were removed before filtering in this study.

Future changes in precipitation of the baiu season under RCP scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okada, Y.; Takemi, T.; Ishikawa, H.

2014-12-01

Recently, the relationship between global warming and rainfall during the rainy season, which called the baiu in Japan, has been attracting attention in association with heavy rainfall in this period. In the Innovative Program of Climate Change Projection for the 21st Century, many studies show a delay in the northward march of the baiu front, and significant increase of daily precipitation amounts around western Japan during the late baiu season (e.g., Kusunoki et al. 2011, Kanada et al. 2012). The future climate experiment in these studies was performed under the IPCC SRES A1B scenarios for global warming conditions. In this study, we discuss the future changes in precipitation using calculated 60km-mesh model (MRI-AGCM3.2H) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Support of this dataset is provided by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). These dataset are calculated by setting the Yoshimura (YS) scheme mainly.Seasonal progression of future precipitation generally indicates the northward in RCP2.6 and 4.5 scenarios, around western Japan. In RCP6.0 scenario, precipitation intensity is weak compared to the other scenarios. RCP8.5 scenario is calculated by setting three different cumulus schemes (YS, Arakawa-Schubert (AS), and Kain-Fritsch (KF) schemes). RCP8.5 configured in YS scheme showed that the rainband associated with the baiu front is not clear. Moreover, peak is remarkable during late June. In AS scheme, the precipitation area stagnates around 30 N until August. And it in KF scheme shows gradual northward migration.This work was conducted under the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology-Japan (MEXT).

Frequency of extreme Sahelian storms tripled since 1982 in satellite observations.

PubMed

Taylor, Christopher M; Belušić, Danijel; Guichard, Françoise; Parker, Douglas J; Vischel, Théo; Bock, Olivier; Harris, Phil P; Janicot, Serge; Klein, Cornelia; Panthou, Gérémy

2017-04-26

The hydrological cycle is expected to intensify under global warming, with studies reporting more frequent extreme rain events in many regions of the world, and predicting increases in future flood frequency. Such early, predominantly mid-latitude observations are essential because of shortcomings within climate models in their depiction of convective rainfall. A globally important group of intense storms-mesoscale convective systems (MCSs)-poses a particular challenge, because they organize dynamically on spatial scales that cannot be resolved by conventional climate models. Here, we use 35 years of satellite observations from the West African Sahel to reveal a persistent increase in the frequency of the most intense MCSs. Sahelian storms are some of the most powerful on the planet, and rain gauges in this region have recorded a rise in 'extreme' daily rainfall totals. We find that intense MCS frequency is only weakly related to the multidecadal recovery of Sahel annual rainfall, but is highly correlated with global land temperatures. Analysis of trends across Africa reveals that MCS intensification is limited to a narrow band south of the Sahara desert. During this period, wet-season Sahelian temperatures have not risen, ruling out the possibility that rainfall has intensified in response to locally warmer conditions. On the other hand, the meridional temperature gradient spanning the Sahel has increased in recent decades, consistent with anthropogenic forcing driving enhanced Saharan warming. We argue that Saharan warming intensifies convection within Sahelian MCSs through increased wind shear and changes to the Saharan air layer. The meridional gradient is projected to strengthen throughout the twenty-first century, suggesting that the Sahel will experience particularly marked increases in extreme rain. The remarkably rapid intensification of Sahelian MCSs since the 1980s sheds new light on the response of organized tropical convection to global warming, and challenges conventional projections made by general circulation models.

Contrasting rainfall declines in northern and southern Tanzania: Potential differential impacts of west Pacific warming and east Pacific cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, L.; Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.; Pedreros, D. H.; Shukla, S.; Husak, G. J.

2015-12-01

Here, we present analysis of a new 1900-2014 rainfall record for the Greater Horn of Africa with high station density (CenTrends), and evaluate potential climate change "hot spots" in Tanzania. We identify recent (1981-2014) downward trends in Tanzanian rainfall, use CenTrends to place these in a longer historical context, and relate rainfall in these regions to decadal changes in global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). To identify areas of concern, we consider the potential food security impacts of the recent rainfall declines and also rapid population growth. Looking forward, we consider what the links to SSTs might mean for rainfall in the next several decades based on SST projections. In addition to CenTrends, we use a variety of geographic data sets, including 1981-2014 rainfall from the Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPSv2.0), simulated crop stress from the USGS Geospatial Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (GeoWRSI) model, NOAA Extended Reconstructed SSTs (ERSST v4), SST projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and land cover and population maps from SERVIR, WorldPOP, and CIESIN's Gridded Population of the World. The long-term CenTrends record allows us to suggest an interesting dichotomy in decadal rainfall forcing. During the March to June season, SSTs in the west Pacific appear to be driving post-1980 rainfall reductions in northern Tanzania. In the 2000s, northern Tanzania's densely populated Pangani River, Internal Drainage, and Lake Victoria basins experienced the driest period in more than a century. During summer, negative trends in southern Tanzania appear linked to a negative SST trend in the Nino3.4 region. Since the SST trend in the west (east) Pacific appears strongly influenced by global warming (natural decadal variability), we suggest that water resources in northern Tanzania may face increasing challenges, but that this will be less the case in southern Tanzania.

Spatial Analysis of the Effects of the Anomalous Winter of 2014/15 on 157 Ski Resorts Located in Western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahbahani, K. M.; Pidwirny, M. J.

2017-12-01

The winter of 2014/2015 was one of the warmest in recent history for many locations in western North America. The cause of this climate irregularity was the development of extremely warm ocean surface waters (The Blob) over much of the eastern North Pacific Ocean. During this winter season, many ski resorts in western Canada and the United States either did not open or were forced to close their ski season early. Here, we examine climate data from 157 ski resorts to develop a picture of where the effected locations were in western North America. Using the climate database software ClimateBC and ClimateNA, high quality downscaled historical data was generated for the winter season (December, January, and February) for the variables mean temperature, snowfall, and rainfall. Values for winter of 2014/15 were statistically compared to the 30-year normal period from 1981-2010. Z-scores were calculated for 2014/15 relative to the selected 30-year normal period. These Z-score values were then mapped using ArcGIS. From the mean winter temperature map, it is apparent that abnormally warm temperatures influenced many ski resorts in California, Nevada, western Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Utah, southern Idaho, and parts of southern British Columbia. The winter snowfall map shows anomalous below normal conditions only at two resorts in south-central British Columbia and a single above normal situation at one site in central Colorado. The winter rainfall map displays that many ski resorts in New Mexico, Arizona, southern Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, western Washington, and southwestern British Columbia experienced exceptional above normal winter season rainfalls. It is highly likely that the next Blob will be forecasted many months in advance of its occurrence. The results of this study have identified which ski resorts could be climatically influenced by such an event. This information may help reduce potential financial losses to ski resorts and their associated stakeholders when the next Blob shows up.

Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm and cold season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.

2013-07-01

Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. The first objective of this study is to investigate this hypothesis. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations, availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions, and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions necessary for the initiation of slope instability, and should therefore be considered explicitly in landslide hazard assessments. Moreover, the relationships between slope stability and interflow are strongly modulated by the topography and catchment specific geomorphologic features that determine subsurface flow convergence zones. The three case-studies demonstrate the value of coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation potential in the context of developing a regional hazard warning system.

Role of moisture transport for Central American precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

María Durán-Quesada, Ana; Gimeno, Luis; Amador, Jorge

2017-02-01

A climatology of moisture sources linked with Central American precipitation was computed based upon Lagrangian trajectories for the analysis period 1980-2013. The response of the annual cycle of precipitation in terms of moisture supply from the sources was analysed. Regional precipitation patterns are mostly driven by moisture transport from the Caribbean Sea (CS). Moisture supply from the eastern tropical Pacific (ETPac) and northern South America (NSA) exhibits a strong seasonal pattern but weaker compared to CS. The regional distribution of rainfall is largely influenced by a local signal associated with surface fluxes during the first part of the rainy season, whereas large-scale dynamics forces rainfall during the second part of the rainy season. The Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ) and the Chocó Jet (CJ) are the main conveyors of regional moisture, being key to define the seasonality of large-scale forced rainfall. Therefore, interannual variability of rainfall is highly dependent of the regional LLJs to the atmospheric variability modes. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found to be the dominant mode affecting moisture supply for Central American precipitation via the modulation of regional phenomena. Evaporative sources show opposite anomaly patterns during warm and cold ENSO phases, as a result of the strengthening and weakening, respectively, of the CLLJ during the summer months. Trends in both moisture supply and precipitation over the last three decades were computed, results suggest that precipitation trends are not homogeneous for Central America. Trends in moisture supply from the sources identified show a marked north-south seesaw, with an increasing supply from the CS Sea to northern Central America. Long-term trends in moisture supply are larger for the transition months (March and October). This might have important implications given that any changes in the conditions seen during the transition to the rainy season may induce stronger precipitation trends.

Seasonal hydroclimatic impacts of Brazilian sugar cane expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgescu, M.; Lobell, D. B.; Field, C. B.; Mahalov, A.

2012-12-01

Brazil is the leading producer of sugar cane in the world with roughly half used for ethanol production. Because of suitable climatic growing conditions, the majority of biofuel production is derived from sugar plantations in southeastern states. Anticipated increases in global demand for biofuels are expected to lead to future sugar cane expansion extending into Brazilian pasturelands and native cerrado. Prior to undergoing large-scale expansion an evaluation of impacts on the region's hydroclimate is warranted. Using a suite of multi-year ensemble-based simulations with the WRF modeling system, we quantify hydroclimatic consequences of sugar cane expansion across portions of south-central Brazil. Conversion from current land use to sugar cane causes opposing seasonal impacts on near-surface temperature. Proggresively greater cooling is simulated during the course of the growing season, followed by an abrupt warming shift post-harvest. Although seasonal impacts on near-surface temperature are significant, with cooling of 1C occurring during the peak of the growing season followed by warming of similar magnitude, impacts are small when annually averaged. Ensemble mean differences between the imposed sugar cane expansion and non-expansion scenario are suggestive of a drying precipitation trend, yet large uncertainty among individual members precludes definitive statements about impacts on the region's rainfall.

Simulated sensitivity of African terrestrial ecosystem photosynthesis to rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Kaiyu; Good, Stephen P.; Caylor, Kelly K.; Medvigy, David; Pan, Ming; Wood, Eric F.; Sato, Hisashi; Biasutti, Michela; Chen, Min; Ahlström, Anders; Xu, Xiangtao

2018-02-01

There is growing evidence of ongoing changes in the statistics of intra-seasonal rainfall variability over large parts of the world. Changes in annual total rainfall may arise from shifts, either singly or in a combination, of distinctive intra-seasonal characteristics -i.e. rainfall frequency, rainfall intensity, and rainfall seasonality. Understanding how various ecosystems respond to the changes in intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics is critical for predictions of future biome shifts and ecosystem services under climate change, especially for arid and semi-arid ecosystems. Here, we use an advanced dynamic vegetation model (SEIB-DGVM) coupled with a stochastic rainfall/weather simulator to answer the following question: how does the productivity of ecosystems respond to a given percentage change in the total seasonal rainfall that is realized by varying only one of the three rainfall characteristics (rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length)? We conducted ensemble simulations for continental Africa for a realistic range of changes (-20% ~ +20%) in total rainfall amount. We find that the simulated ecosystem productivity (measured by gross primary production, GPP) shows distinctive responses to the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics. Specifically, increase in rainfall frequency can lead to 28% more GPP increase than the same percentage increase in rainfall intensity; in tropical woodlands, GPP sensitivity to changes in rainy season length is ~4 times larger than to the same percentage changes in rainfall frequency or intensity. In contrast, shifts in the simulated biome distribution are much less sensitive to intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics than they are to total rainfall amount. Our results reveal three major distinctive productivity responses to seasonal rainfall variability—‘chronic water stress’, ‘acute water stress’ and ‘minimum water stress’ - which are respectively associated with three broad spatial patterns of African ecosystem physiognomy, i.e. savannas, woodlands, and tropical forests.

Impacts of the seasonal distribution of rainfall on vegetation productivity across the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenmin; Brandt, Martin; Tong, Xiaoye; Tian, Qingjiu; Fensholt, Rasmus

2018-01-01

Climate change in drylands has caused alterations in the seasonal distribution of rainfall including increased heavy-rainfall events, longer dry spells, and a shifted timing of the wet season. Yet the aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in drylands is usually explained by annual-rainfall sums, disregarding the influence of the seasonal distribution of rainfall. This study tested the importance of rainfall metrics in the wet season (onset and cessation of the wet season, number of rainy days, rainfall intensity, number of consecutive dry days, and heavy-rainfall events) for growing season ANPP. We focused on the Sahel and northern Sudanian region (100-800 mm yr-1) and applied daily satellite-based rainfall estimates (CHIRPS v2.0) and growing-season-integrated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; MODIS) as a proxy for ANPP over the study period: 2001-2015. Growing season ANPP in the arid zone (100-300 mm yr-1) was found to be rather insensitive to variations in the seasonal-rainfall metrics, whereas vegetation in the semi-arid zone (300-700 mm yr-1) was significantly impacted by most metrics, especially by the number of rainy days and timing (onset and cessation) of the wet season. We analysed critical breakpoints for all metrics to test if vegetation response to changes in a given rainfall metric surpasses a threshold beyond which vegetation functioning is significantly altered. It was shown that growing season ANPP was particularly negatively impacted after > 14 consecutive dry days and that a rainfall intensity of ˜ 13 mm day-1 was detected for optimum growing season ANPP. We conclude that the number of rainy days and the timing of the wet season are seasonal-rainfall metrics that are decisive for favourable vegetation growth in the semi-arid Sahel and need to be considered when modelling primary productivity from rainfall in the drylands of the Sahel and elsewhere.

Analyzing Flash Flood Data in an Ultra-Urban Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, B. K.; Rodriguez, S.

2016-12-01

New York City is an ultra-urban region, with combined sewers and buried stream channels. Traditional flood studies rely on the presence of stream gages to detect flood stage and discharge, but ultra-urban regions frequently lack the surface stream channels and gages necessary for this approach. In this study we aggregate multiple non-traditional data for detecting flash flood events. These data including phone call reports, city records, and, for one particular flood event, news reports and social media reports. These data are compared with high-resolution bias-corrected radar rainfall fields to study flash flood events in New York City. We seek to determine if these non-traditional data will allow for a comprehensive study of rainfall-runoff relationships in New York City. We also seek to map warm season rainfall heterogeneities in the city and to compare them to spatial distribution of reported flood occurrence.

Spatial and temporal variation of precipitation trends in Andhra Pradesh, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivajothi, R.; Karthikeyan, K.

2017-11-01

Long-term samples of meteorological data are periodically necessary to assess the long standing effects of future hydrological changes. The evaluations are repeatedly undertaken using deterministic statistical analyze which requires daily weather data as input. Andhra Pradesh had experienced frequent disasters like cyclones, floods, droughts etc. The frequency and intensity of the hazardous events has been significantly increasing in there cent decades due to climatic changes and global warming. This model is being applied to all the districts of the state to evaluate the results of abnormally low rainfall and to evaluate possible adjustment polices. The final results shows that the lack of rainfall has larger influence on the living society and the major adaptation sustained by irrigation and the ecosystem which illustrates the potential of hydrological modelling for multiple dimensions of water resources. No significant trend has been detected for annual and seasonal precipitation in the entire state, some of the district’s annual and monsoon precipitation has decreased, and has increased during post monsoon and winter seasons.

Simulated projection of ISMR over Indian Himalayan region: assessment from CSIRO-CORDEX South Asia experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukherjee, Sandipan; Hazra, Anupam; Kumar, Kireet; Nandi, Shyamal K.; Dhyani, Pitamber P.

2017-09-01

In view of a significant lacuna in the Himalaya-specific knowledge of forthcoming expected changes in the rainfall climatology, this study attempts to assess the expected changes in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) pattern exclusively over the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) during 2020-2070 in comparison to a baseline period of 1970-2005 under two different warming scenarios, i.e., representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Five climate model products from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization initiated Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment of World Climate Research Programme over south Asia region are used for this purpose. Among the several different features of ISMR, this study attempts to investigate expected changes in the average summer monsoon rainfall and percent monthly rainfall to the total monsoon seasonal rainfall using multimodel averages. Furthermore, this study attempts to identify the topographical ranges which are expected to be mostly affected by the changing average monsoon seasonal rainfall over IHR. Results from the multimodel average analysis indicate that the rainfall climatology is expected to increase by >0.75 mm/day over the foothills of northwest Himalaya during 2020-2070, whereas the rainfall climatology is expected to decrease for the flood plains of Brahmaputra under a warmer climate. The monthly percent rainfall of June is expected to rise by more than 1% over the northwestern Himalaya during 2020-2040 (although insignificant at p value <0.05), whereas the same for August and September is expected to decrease over the eastern Himalaya under a warmer climate. In terms of rainfall changes along the altitudinal gradient, this study indicates that the two significant rainfall regions, one at around 900 m and the other around 2000 m of the northwestern Himalaya are expected to see positive changes (>1%) in rainfall climatology during 2020-2070, whereas regions more than 1500 m in eastern Himalaya are expected to experience inconsistent variation in rainfall climatology under a warmer climate scenario.

Vegetation response to rainfall seasonality and interannual variability in tropical dry forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Silva Souza, R. M.; Souza, E.; Antonino, A.; Montenegro, S.; Porporato, A. M.

2015-12-01

We analyzed the response of tropical dry forests to seasonal and interannual rainfall variability, focusing on the caatinga biome in semi-arid in Northeast Brazil. We selected four sites across a gradient of rainfall amount and seasonality and analyzed daily rainfall and biweekly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the period 2000-2014. The seasonal and interannual rainfall statistics were characterized using recently developed metrics describing duration, location, and intensity of wet season and compared them with those of NDVI time series and modelled soil moisture. A model of NDVI was also developed and forced by different rainfall scenarios (combination amount of rainfall and duration of wet season). The results show that the caatinga tends to have a more stable response characterized by longer and less variable growing seasons (of duration 3.1±0.1 months) compared to the rainfall wet seasons (2.0±0.5 months). Even for more extreme rainfall conditions, the ecosystem shows very little sensitivity to duration of wet season in relation to the amount of rainfall, however the duration of wet season is most evident for wetter sites. This ability of the ecosystem in buffering the interannual variability of rainfall is corroborated by the stability of the centroid location of the growing season compared to the wet season for all sites. The maximal biomass production was observed at intermediate levels of seasonality, suggesting a possible interesting trade-off in the effects of intensity (i.e., amount) and duration of the wet season on vegetation growth.

Modeling the Large-scale Environments of Long-lived Mesoscale Convective Systems Conducive to Heavy Precipitation in the Central United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, L. R.; Houze, R.; Feng, Z.; Yang, Q.

2017-12-01

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are important precipitation producers that account for 30-70% of warm season rainfall between the Rocky Mountains and Mississippi River and some 50-60% of tropical rainfall. Besides the tendency to produce floods, MCSs also carry with them a variety of attendant severe weather phenomena. Our recent analysis found that observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in the central United States in the past 35 years are dominated by increased frequency and intensity of long-lasting MCSs. Understanding the environmental conditions producing long-lived MCSs is therefore a priority in determining how heavy precipitation events might change in character and location in a changing climate. Continental-scale convection-permitting simulations of the warm seasons using the WRF model reproduce realistic structure and frequency distribution of lifetime and event mean precipitation of MCSs over the central United States. The simulations show that MCSs systematically form over the central Great Plains ahead of a trough in the westerlies in combination with an enhanced low-level moist jet from the Gulf of Mexico. These environmental properties at the time of storm initiation are most prominent for the MCSs that persist for the longest times. MCSs reaching lifetimes of 9 h or more occur closer to the approaching trough than shorter-lived MCSs. These long-lived MCSs exhibit the strongest feedback to the environment through diabatic heating in the trailing regions of the MCSs that helps to maintain them over a long period of time. The identified large-scale and mesoscale ingredients provide a framework for understanding and modeling the potential changes in MCSs and associated hydrometeorological extremes in the future.

Stressed Watersheds in a Rainfall-Rich Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kastrinos, J. R.; Miles, O.; Pickering, N. B.

2016-12-01

Southern New England has ample rainfall and, in some years, snowmelt, to sustain reservoirs and aquifers that are used primarily for municipal water supplies and secondarily for industrial and agricultural needs. Despite the humid climate, however, many watersheds are considered stressed, particularly during the summer and early fall growing-season months due to the combined effect of evapotranspiration and increased demand for lawn irrigation and other seasonal, warm-weather uses. While per capita consumption is frequently the focus of water-conservation efforts, most high-stress areas are in population centers where concentrated demand exceeds recharge (to aquifers) or runoff (to surface water supplies) within the region's small watersheds (commonly 200 mi2 or less). The parameter depletion intensity, described by Konikow (2015) in a review of groundwater-depletion trends across the United States, is used to compare seasonal stress and changes in stress level in several watersheds in Massachusetts. Areas of stress follow patterns of high depletion intensity during the summer months when demand is high. This seasonal stress is exacerbated by inter-basin transfer of water or wastewater from a watershed. Examples will be presented of projects where streamflow impacts have been offset using tools including well optimization, water conservation, storm water recharge, and reductions of infiltration/inflow to utilities, pursuant to the state's Sustainable Water Management Initiative.

Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, Jacob; Levermann, Anders

2017-07-01

Projections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change. Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 to 300 % over the 21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non-linearly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture source regions, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming level. We argue that this behavior is consistent with a self-amplifying dynamic-thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today's core monsoon region.

Relationships between Rainy Days, Mean Daily Intensity, and Seasonal Rainfall over the Koyna Catchment during 1961–2005

PubMed Central

Nandargi, S.; Mulye, S. S.

2012-01-01

There are limitations in using monthly rainfall totals in studies of rainfall climatology as well as in hydrological and agricultural investigations. Variations in rainfall may be considered to result from frequency changes in the daily rainfall of the respective regime. In the present study, daily rainfall data of the stations inside the Koyna catchment has been analysed for the period of 1961–2005 to understand the relationship between the rain and rainy days, mean daily intensity (MDI) and seasonal rainfall over the catchment on monthly as well as seasonal scale. Considering the topographical location of the catchment, analysis of seasonal rainfall data of 8 stations suggests that a linear relationship fits better than the logarithmic relationship in the case of seasonal rainfall versus mean daily intensity. So far as seasonal rainfall versus number of rainy days is considered, the logarithmic relationship is found to be better. PMID:22654646

Intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics and their importance to the seasonal prediction problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tennant, Warren J.; Hewitson, Bruce C.

2002-07-01

Daily station rainfall data in South Africa from 1936 to 1999 are combined into homogeneous rainfall regions using Ward's clustering method. Various rainfall characteristics are calculated for the summer season, defined as December to February. These include seasonal rainfall total, region-average number of station rain days exceeding 1 and 20 mm, region-average of periods between rain days at stations >1 and >20 mm, region-average of wet spell length (sequential days of station rainfall >1 and >20 mm), correlation of daily station rainfall within a region and correlation of seasonal station rainfall anomalies within a region.Rank-ordered rainfall characteristic data generally form an s-shaped curve, and significance testing of discontinuities in these curves suggests that normal rainfall conditions in South Africa consist of a combined middle three quintiles separated from the outer quintiles, rather than the traditional middle tercile.The relationships between the various rainfall characteristics show that seasons with a high total rainfall generally have a higher number of heavy rain days (>20 mm) and not necessarily an increase in light rain days. The length of the period between rain days has a low correlation to season totals, demonstrating that seasons with a high total rainfall may still contain prolonged dry periods. These additional rainfall characteristics are important to end-users, and the analysis undertaken here offers a valuable starting point for seeking physical relationships between rainfall characteristics and the general circulation. Preliminary studies show that the vertical mean wind is related to rainfall characteristics in South Africa. Given that general circulation models capture this part of the circulation adequately, seasonal forecasts of rainfall characteristics become plausible.

Contributions of Tropical Cyclones to the North Atlantic Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The tropical cyclone rainfall climatology study that was performed for the North Pacific was extended to the North Atlantic. Similar to the North Pacific tropical cyclone study, mean monthly rainfall within 444 km of the center of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones (i.e., that reached storm stage and greater) was estimated from passive microwave satellite observations during, an eleven year period. These satellite-observed rainfall estimates were used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Atlantic total rainfall during, June-November when tropical cyclones were most abundant. The main results from this study indicate: 1) that tropical cyclones contribute, respectively, 4%, 3%, and 4% to the western, eastern, and entire North Atlantic; 2) similar to that observed in the North Pacific, the maximum in North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall is approximately 5 - 10 deg poleward (depending on longitude) of the maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute regionally a maximum of 30% of the total rainfall 'northeast of Puerto Rico, within a region near 15 deg N 55 deg W, and off the west coast of Africa; 4) there is no lag between the months with maximum tropical cyclone rainfall and non-tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Atlantic, while in the eastern North Atlantic, maximum tropical cyclone rainfall precedes maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 5) like the North Pacific, North Atlantic tropical cyclones Of hurricane intensity generate the greatest amount of rainfall in the higher latitudes; and 6) warm ENSO events inhibit tropical cyclone rainfall.

Rainfall Modification by Major Urban Areas: Observations from Spaceborne Rain Radar on the TRMM Satellite.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Pierce, Harold; Negri, Andrew J.

2002-07-01

Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite's precipitation radar (PR) were employed to identify warm-season rainfall (1998-2000) patterns around Atlanta, Georgia; Montgomery, Alabama; Nashville, Tennessee; and San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas, Texas. Results reveal an average increase of about 28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 km downwind of the metropolis, with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage changes are relative to an upwind control area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area exceeded the mean value in the upwind control area by 48%-116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. Results are consistent with the Metropolitan Meteorological Experiment (METROMEX) studies of St. Louis, Missouri, almost two decades ago and with more recent studies near Atlanta. The study establishes the possibility of utilizing satellite-based rainfall estimates for examining rainfall modification by urban areas on global scales and over longer time periods. Such research has implications for weather forecasting, urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment and climate.

Enhanced future variability during India's rainy season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menon, Arathy; Levermann, Anders; Schewe, Jacob

2013-06-01

The Indian summer monsoon shapes the livelihood of a large share of the world's population. About 80% of annual precipitation over India occurs during the monsoon season from June through September. Next to its seasonal mean rainfall, the day-to-day variability is crucial for the risk of flooding, national water supply, and agricultural productivity. Here we show that the latest ensemble of climate model simulations, prepared for the AR-5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently projects significant increases in day-to-day rainfall variability under unmitigated climate change. The relative increase by the period 2071-2100 with respect to the control period 1871-1900 ranges from 13% to 50% under the strongest scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP-8.5), in the 10 models with the most realistic monsoon climatology; and 13% to 85% when all the 20 models are considered. The spread across models reduces when variability increase per degree of global warming is considered, which is independent of the scenario in most models, and is 8% ± 4%/K on average. This consistent projection across 20 comprehensive climate models provides confidence in the results and suggests the necessity of profound adaptation measures in the case of unmitigated climate change.

Rainfall model investigation and scenario analyses of the effect of government reforestation policy on seasonal rainfalls: A case study from Northern Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duangdai, Eakkapong; Likasiri, Chulin

2017-03-01

In this work, 4 models for predicting rainfall amounts are investigated and compared using Northern Thailand's seasonal rainfall data for 1973-2008. Two models, global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall (TFR) and modified TFR based on a system of differential equations, give the relationships between global temperature, Northern Thailand's forest cover and seasonal rainfalls in the region. The other two models studied are time series and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. All models are validated using the k-fold cross validation method with the resulting errors being 0.971233, 0.740891, 2.376415 and 2.430891 for time series, ARMA, TFR and modified TFR models, respectively. Under Business as Usual (BaU) scenario, seasonal rainfalls in Northern Thailand are projected through the year 2020 using all 4 models. TFR and modified TFR models are also used to further analyze how global temperature rise and government reforestation policy affect seasonal rainfalls in the region. Rainfall projections obtained via the two models are also compared with those from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under IS92a scenario. Results obtained through a mathematical model for global temperature, forest area and seasonal rainfall show that the higher the forest cover, the less fluctuation there is between rainy-season and summer rainfalls. Moreover, growth in forest cover also correlates with an increase in summer rainfalls. An investigation into the relationship between main crop productions and rainfalls in dry and rainy seasons indicates that if the rainy-season rainfall is high, that year's main-crop rice production will decrease but the second-crop rice, maize, sugarcane and soybean productions will increase in the following year.

Precipitation and temperature trends over central Italy (Abruzzo Region): 1951-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scorzini, Anna Rita; Leopardi, Maurizio

2018-02-01

This study analyses spatial and temporal trends of precipitation and temperatures over Abruzzo Region (central Italy), using historical climatic data from a dense observation network. The results show a general, although not significant, negative trend in the regionally averaged annual precipitation (- 1.8% of the yearly mean rainfall per decade). This reduction is particularly evident in winter, especially at mountain stations (average - 3% change/decade). Despite this general decreasing trend, a partial rainfall recovery is observed after the 1980s. Furthermore, the majority of meteorological stations register a significant warming over the last 60 years, (mean annual temperature increase of + 0.15 °C/decade), which reflects a rise in both minimum and maximum temperatures, with the latter generally increasing at a faster rate. Spring and summer are the seasons which contribute most to the general temperature increase, in particular at high elevation sites, which exhibit a more pronounced warming (+ 0.24 °C/decade). However, this tendency has not been uniform over 1951-2012, but it has been characterised by a cooling phenomenon in the first 30 years (1951-1981), followed by an even stronger warming during the last three decades (1982-2012). Finally, correlations between the climatic variables and the dominant teleconnection patterns in the Mediterranean basin are analysed to identify the potential influence of large-scale atmospheric dynamics on observed trends in Abruzzo. The results highlight the dominant role of the East-Atlantic pattern on seasonal temperatures, while more spatially heterogeneous associations, depending on the complex topography of the region, are identified between winter precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, East-Atlantic and East-Atlantic/Western Russian patterns.

Regional patterns of the change in annual-mean tropical rainfall under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, P.

2013-12-01

Projection of the change in tropical rainfall under global warming is a major challenge with great societal implications. The current study analyzes the 18 models from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, and investigates the regional pattern of annual-mean rainfall change under global warming. With surface warming, the climatological ascending pumps up increased surface moisture and leads rainfall increase over the tropical convergence zone (wet-get-wetter effect), while the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) increase induces ascending flow and then increasing rainfall over the equatorial Pacific and the northern Indian Ocean where the local oceanic warming exceeds the tropical mean temperature increase (warmer-get-wetter effect). The background surface moisture and SST also can modify warmer-get-wetter effect: the former can influence the moisture change and contribute to the distribution of moist instability change, while the latter can suppress the role of instability change over the equatorial eastern Pacific due to the threshold effect of convection-SST relationship. The wet-get-wetter and modified warmer-get-wetter effects form a hook-like pattern of rainfall change over the tropical Pacific and an elliptic pattern over the northern Indian Ocean. The annual-mean rainfall pattern can be partly projected based on current rainfall climatology, while it also has great uncertainties due to the uncertain change in SST pattern.

Interannual Variability of Boreal Summer Rainfall in the Equatorial Atlantic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.

2007-01-01

Tropical Atlantic rainfall patterns and variation during boreal summer [June-July-August (JJA)] are quantified by means of a 28-year (1979-2006) monthly precipitation dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Rainfall variability during boreal spring [March-April-May (MAM)] is also examined for comparison in that the most intense interannual variability is usually observed during this season. Comparable variabilities in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) strength and the basin-mean rainfall are found during both seasons. Interannual variations in the ITCZ's latitudinal location during JJA however are generally negligible, in contrasting to intense year-to-year fluctuations during MAM. Sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations along the equatorial region (usually called the Atlantic Nino events) and in the tropical north Atlantic (TNA) are shown to be the two major local factors modulating the tropical Atlantic climate during both seasons. During MAM, both SST modes tend to contribute to the formation of an evident interhemispheric SST gradient, thus inducing anomalous shifting of the ITCZ and then forcing a dipolar structure of rainfall anomalies across the equator primarily in the western basin. During JJA the impacts however are primarily on the ITCZ strength likely due to negligible changes in the ITCZ latitudinal location. The Atlantic Nino reaches its peak in JJA, while much weaker SST anomalies appear north of the equator in JJA than in MAM, showing decaying of the interhemispheric SST mode. SST anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific (the El Nino events) have a strong impact on tropical Atlantic including both the tropical north Atlantic and the equatorial-southern Atlantic. However, anomalous warming in the tropical north Atlantic following positive SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific disappears during JJA because of seasonal changes in the large-scale circulation cutting off the ENSO influence passing through the mid-latitudes. Hence the anomalies associated with the tropical Pacific during JJA are forced through an anomalous Walker circulation primarily working on the western basin, and likely a lagged oceanic response in the equatorial region.

Moisture-driven xylogenesis in Pinus ponderosa from a Mojave Desert mountain reveals high phenological plasticity.

PubMed

Ziaco, Emanuele; Truettner, Charles; Biondi, Franco; Bullock, Sarah

2018-04-01

Future seasonal dynamics of wood formation in hyperarid environments are still unclear. Although temperature-driven extension of the growing season and increased forest productivity are expected for boreal and temperate biomes under global warming, a similar trend remains questionable in water-limited regions. We monitored cambial activity in a montane stand of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) from the Mojave Desert for 2 consecutive years (2015-2016) showing opposite-sign anomalies between warm- and cold-season precipitation. After the wet winter/spring of 2016, xylogenesis started 2 months earlier compared to 2015, characterized by abundant monsoonal (July-August) rainfall and hyperarid spring. Tree size did not influence the onset and ending of wood formation, highlighting a predominant climatic control over xylem phenological processes. Moisture conditions in the previous month, in particular soil water content and dew point, were the main drivers of cambial phenology. Latewood formation started roughly at the same time in both years; however, monsoonal precipitation triggered the formation of more false rings and density fluctuations in 2015. Because of uncertainties in future precipitation patterns simulated by global change models for the Southwestern United States, the dependency of P. ponderosa on seasonal moisture implies a greater conservation challenge than for species that respond mostly to temperature conditions. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Investigation of summer monsoon rainfall variability in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho

2016-08-01

This study analyzes the inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability in Pakistan using daily rainfall data during the summer monsoon season (June to September) recorded from 1980 to 2014. The variability in inter-annual monsoon rainfall ranges from 20 % in northeastern regions to 65 % in southwestern regions of Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the transition of the negative and positive anomalies was not uniform in the investigated dataset. In order to acquire broad observations of the intra-seasonal variability, an objective criterion, the pre-active period, active period and post-active periods of the summer monsoon rainfall have demarcated. The analysis also reveals that the rainfall in June has no significant contribution to the increase in intra-seasonal rainfall in Pakistan. The rainfall has, however, been enhanced in the summer monsoon in August. The rainfall of September demonstrates a sharp decrease, resulting in a high variability in the summer monsoon season. A detailed examination of the intra-seasonal rainfall also reveals frequent amplitude from late July to early August. The daily normal rainfall fluctuates significantly with its maximum in the Murree hills and its minimum in the northwestern Baluchistan.

Agricultural Early Warning Informing Humanitarian Response in East Africa for 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.

2012-12-01

Long rains during the March-April-May (MAM) 2011 growing season were a failure for much of the Greater Horn of Africa. These conditions resulted in severe food shortages, with the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) estimating that 12.4 million people were in need of food assistance in Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia and Djibouti. Heading into the 2012 season, La Niña conditions, an exceptionally strong western-to-central Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, and warm SSTs in the eastern Indian Ocean foretold further dryness, compounding the difficulties faced by the already vulnerable populations of this region. In an effort to assess the potential for greater food insecurity in the region, FEWS NET scientists attempted to quantify the likelihood of a dry event. This work used satellite rainfall estimates with a 13-year rainfall history. Weights were assigned to previous years based on the similarity of existing SST conditions to those of previous years in the rainfall record. Scenarios were created by randomly combining dekadal rainfall from the historical record, in accordance with the weights. This bootstrapping resulted in a suite of simulations which could be used to identify the likelihood of specific rainfall outcomes. Areal averages of each simulation were used in the analysis. Analysis of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) rainfall record, a gridded rainfall product based on available station data, showed that the mean rainfall value for the time period of the satellite data for this region was only about 80% of the 30-year mean. The bootstrapped scenarios were corrected for this bias during the period of the satellite record. Results were expressed as percent of average rather than in absolute rainfall amounts, to account for biases in the satellite products as well as variability in spatial amounts. The results showed that during a normal year the interquartile range is typically 80-120% of normal. However, using the weighted scenarios based on February SSTs, the interquartile range shifted to 75-105% of normal. As the season progressed, March turned out to be exceptionally dry, with a lack of onset of rains for much of the region. This delayed start to the season allowed for the combination of satellite estimates for the start of March to be combined with scenarios to look ahead to end-of-season values. By the end of March, combining estimated 2012 rains with the scenarios built before the season resulted in the interquartile range for expected outcomes dropping to 60-85% of normal. This information was relayed to FEWS NET food security analysts and used in a special report, highlighting the potential for crisis in the region. In April, this forecasting effort, combined with FEWS NET's extensive monitoring activities, helped motivate allocation of an additional $50M in food aid from the U.S. government. This presentation examines the climate conditions associated with MAM drought in the eastern sector of the Greater Horn, reviews the techniques behind the 2012 forecasts, and analyzes the actual outcome for the region. Methods for improving the work to more accurately reflect the variability and future directions and applications will be discussed.

Climate change impacts on mass movements--case studies from the European Alps.

PubMed

Stoffel, M; Tiranti, D; Huggel, C

2014-09-15

This paper addresses the current knowledge on climate change impacts on mass movement activity in mountain environments by illustrating characteristic cases of debris flows, rock slope failures and landslides from the French, Italian, and Swiss Alps. It is expected that events are likely to occur less frequently during summer, whereas the anticipated increase of rainfall in spring and fall could likely alter debris-flow activity during the shoulder seasons (March, April, November, and December). The magnitude of debris flows could become larger due to larger amounts of sediment delivered to the channels and as a result of the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events. At the same time, however, debris-flow volumes in high-mountain areas will depend chiefly on the stability and/or movement rates of permafrost bodies, and destabilized rock glaciers could lead to debris flows without historic precedents in the future. The frequency of rock slope failures is likely to increase, as excessively warm air temperatures, glacier shrinkage, as well as permafrost warming and thawing will affect and reduce rock slope stability in the direction that adversely affects rock slope stability. Changes in landslide activity in the French and Western Italian Alps will likely depend on differences in elevation. Above 1500 m asl, the projected decrease in snow season duration in future winters and springs will likely affect the frequency, number and seasonality of landslide reactivations. In Piemonte, for instance, 21st century landslides have been demonstrated to occur more frequently in early spring and to be triggered by moderate rainfalls, but also to occur in smaller numbers. On the contrary, and in line with recent observations, events in autumn, characterized by a large spatial density of landslide occurrences might become more scarce in the Piemonte region. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal modulation of the Asian summer monsoon between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: a multi model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamae, Youichi; Kawana, Toshi; Oshiro, Megumi; Ueda, Hiroaki

2017-12-01

Instrumental and proxy records indicate remarkable global climate variability over the last millennium, influenced by solar irradiance, Earth's orbital parameters, volcanic eruptions and human activities. Numerical model simulations and proxy data suggest an enhanced Asian summer monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) compared to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Using multiple climate model simulations, we show that anomalous seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere due to a long cycle of orbital parameters results in a modulation of the Asian summer monsoon transition between the MWP and LIA. Ten climate model simulations prescribing historical radiative forcing that includes orbital parameters consistently reproduce an enhanced MWP Asian monsoon in late summer and a weakened monsoon in early summer. Weakened, then enhanced Northern Hemisphere insolation before and after June leads to a seasonally asymmetric temperature response over the Eurasian continent, resulting in a seasonal reversal of the signs of MWP-LIA anomalies in land-sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation, and rainfall from early to late summer. This seasonal asymmetry in monsoon response is consistently found among the different climate models and is reproduced by an idealized model simulation forced solely by orbital parameters. The results of this study indicate that slow variation in the Earth's orbital parameters contributes to centennial variability in the Asian monsoon transition.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Processes Controlling Baseflow and Climatic Warming Effects in Merced River, Sierra Nevada, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, F.; Conklin, M. H.; Shaw, G.; Bales, R. C.; Conrad, M. E.; Rice, R.

2006-12-01

Sources of streamflow in Merced River were determined using stable isotopes and chemical tracers in order to improve our understanding of hydrologic controls on streamflow and their relationship with climatic warming in the region. Samples were collected from streamflow, groundwater, and natural springs from 2003 to 2006. Both stable isotopes and specific conductivity in streamflow showed a strong seasonality, with lower values from April to July during the snowmelt season, higher values from August to October during dry season, and intermediate values from November to March during winter rainfall and snowfall. Two components controlling baseflow (streamflow from August to October) in the Upper Merced River were identified: shallow subsurface runoff from snowmelt infiltration and groundwater from fractured bedrock. Conductivity in baseflow increased rapidly with discharge, following a power law (R2 > 0.96, p < 0.05), and peaked in October, indicating that the contribution of shallow subsurface runoff to baseflow was significant but decreased rapidly from August to October. Baseflow appears to be very sensitive to the snowmelt timing and regime. From 1976 to 2005, during a period of increasing temperature in the region, streamflow tended to decrease significantly during October (p < 0.05) and increase during March (p < 0.05). However, total annual precipitation did not change significantly, indicating that the shift in baseflow discharge is a result of the early onset of snowmelt due to climatic warming. If climatic warming continues in the region, baseflow in the Sierra Nevada may continue decreasing and water supply may suffer increased stress during the late summer, high water-demand period.

Impacts of second-generation biofuel feedstock production in the central U.S. on the hydrologic cycle and global warming mitigation potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harding, K. J.; Twine, T. E.; VanLoocke, A.; Bagley, J. E.; Hill, J.

2016-10-01

Biofuel feedstocks provide a renewable energy source that can reduce fossil fuel emissions; however, if produced on a large scale they can also impact local to regional water and carbon budgets. Simulation results for 2005-2014 from a regional weather model adapted to simulate the growth of two perennial grass biofuel feedstocks suggest that replacing at least half the current annual cropland with these grasses would increase water use efficiency and drive greater rainfall downwind of perturbed grid cells, but increased evapotranspiration (ET) might switch the Mississippi River basin from having a net warm-season surplus of water (precipitation minus ET) to a net deficit. While this scenario reduces land required for biofuel feedstock production relative to current use for maize grain ethanol production, it only offsets approximately one decade of projected anthropogenic warming and increased water vapor results in greater atmospheric heat content.

Leaf unfolding of Tibetan alpine meadows captures the arrival of monsoon rainfall

PubMed Central

Li, Ruicheng; Luo, Tianxiang; Mölg, Thomas; Zhao, Jingxue; Li, Xiang; Cui, Xiaoyong; Du, Mingyuan; Tang, Yanhong

2016-01-01

The alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau is the highest and largest pasture in the world, and its formation and distribution are mainly controlled by Indian summer monsoon effects. However, little is known about how monsoon-related cues may trigger spring phenology of the vast alpine vegetation. Based on the 7-year observations with fenced and transplanted experiments across lower to upper limits of Kobresia meadows in the central plateau (4400–5200 m), we found that leaf unfolding dates of dominant sedge and grass species synchronized with monsoon onset, regardless of air temperature. We also found similar patterns in a 22-year data set from the northeast plateau. In the monsoon-related cues for leaf unfolding, the arrival of monsoon rainfall is crucial, while seasonal air temperatures are already continuously above 0 °C. In contrast, the early-emerging cushion species generally leafed out earlier in warmer years regardless of precipitation. Our data provide evidence that leaf unfolding of dominant species in the alpine meadows senses the arrival of monsoon-season rainfall. These findings also provide a basis for interpreting the spatially variable greening responses to warming detected in the world’s highest pasture, and suggest a phenological strategy for avoiding damages of pre-monsoon drought and frost to alpine plants. PMID:26856260

Competing influences of greenhouse warming and aerosols on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, William Ka-Ming; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2017-05-01

In this paper, we have compared and contrasted competing influences of greenhouse gases (GHG) warming and aerosol forcing on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall based on CMIP5 historical simulations. Under GHG-only forcing, the land warms much faster than the ocean, magnifying the pre-industrial climatological land-ocean thermal contrast and hemispheric asymmetry, i.e., warmer northern than southern hemisphere. A steady increasing warm-ocean-warmer-land (WOWL) trend has been in effect since the 1950's substantially increasing moisture transport from adjacent oceans, and enhancing rainfall over the Asian monsoon regions. However, under GHG warming, increased atmospheric stability due to strong reduction in mid-tropospheric and near surface relative humidity coupled to an expanding subsidence areas, associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (DTS, Lau and Kim, 2015b) strongly suppress monsoon convection and rainfall over subtropical and extratropical land, leading to a weakening of the Asian monsoon meridional circulation. Increased anthropogenic aerosol emission strongly masks WOWL, by over 60% over the northern hemisphere, negating to a large extent the rainfall increase due to GHG warming, and leading to a further weakening of the monsoon circulation, through increasing atmospheric stability, most likely associated with aerosol solar dimming and semi-direct effects. Overall, we find that GHG exerts stronger positive rainfall sensitivity, but less negative circulation sensitivity in SASM compared to EASM. In contrast, aerosols exert stronger negative impacts on rainfall, but less negative impacts on circulation in EASM compared to SASM.

The Southern Oscillation and Prediction of `Der' Season Rainfall in Somalia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutchinson, P.

1992-05-01

Somalia survives in semiarid to arid conditions, with annual rainfall totals rarely exceeding 700 mm, which are divided between two seasons. Many areas are arid, with negligible precipitation. Seasonal totals are highly variable. Thus, any seasonal rainfall forecast would be of significant importance to both the agricultural and animal husbandry communities. An investigation was carried out to determine whether there is a relationship between the Southern Oscillation and seasonal rainfall. No relationship exists between the Southern Oscillation and rainfall during the midyear `Gu' season, but it is shown that the year-end `Der' season precipitation is attected by the Southern Oscillation in southern and central areas of Somalia. Three techniques were used: correlation, regression, and simple contingency tables. Correlations between the SOI (Southern Oscillation index) and seasonal rainfall vary from zero up to about 0.8, with higher correlations in the south, both for individual stations and for area-averaged rainfall. Regression provides some predictive capacity, but the `explanation' of the variation in rainfall is not particularly high. The contingency tables revealed that there were very few occasions of both high SOI and high seasonal rainfall, although there was a wide scatter of seasonal rainfall associated with a low SOI.It is concluded that the SOI would be useful for planners, governments, and agencies as one tool in food/famine early warning but that the relationships are not strong enough for the average farmer to place much reliance on forecasts produced solely using the SOI.

Effect of rainfall seasonality on carbon storage in tropical dry ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohr, Tyler; Manzoni, Stefano; Feng, Xue; Menezes, Rômulo S. C.; Porporato, Amilcare

2013-07-01

seasonally dry conditions are typical of large areas of the tropics, their biogeochemical responses to seasonal rainfall and soil carbon (C) sequestration potential are not well characterized. Seasonal moisture availability positively affects both productivity and soil respiration, resulting in a delicate balance between C deposition as litterfall and C loss through heterotrophic respiration. To understand how rainfall seasonality (i.e., duration of the wet season and rainfall distribution) affects this balance and to provide estimates of long-term C sequestration, we develop a minimal model linking the seasonal behavior of the ensemble soil moisture, plant productivity, related C inputs through litterfall, and soil C dynamics. A drought-deciduous caatinga ecosystem in northeastern Brazil is used as a case study to parameterize the model. When extended to different patterns of rainfall seasonality, the results indicate that for fixed annual rainfall, both plant productivity and soil C sequestration potential are largely, and nonlinearly, dependent on wet season duration. Moreover, total annual rainfall is a critical driver of this relationship, leading at times to distinct optima in both production and C storage. These theoretical predictions are discussed in the context of parameter uncertainties and possible changes in rainfall regimes in tropical dry ecosystems.

Overview: Precipitation characteristics and sensitivities to environmental conditions during GoAmazon2014/5 and ACRIDICON-CHUVA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machado, Luiz A. T.; Calheiros, Alan J. P.; Biscaro, Thiago; Giangrande, Scott; Silva Dias, Maria A. F.; Cecchini, Micael A.; Albrecht, Rachel; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Araujo, Wagner F.; Artaxo, Paulo; Borrmann, Stephan; Braga, Ramon; Burleyson, Casey; Eichholz, Cristiano W.; Fan, Jiwen; Feng, Zhe; Fisch, Gilberto F.; Jensen, Michael P.; Martin, Scot T.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Pöhlker, Christopher; Pöhlker, Mira L.; Ribaud, Jean-François; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Saraiva, Jaci M. B.; Schumacher, Courtney; Thalman, Ryan; Walter, David; Wendisch, Manfred

2018-05-01

This study provides an overview of precipitation processes and their sensitivities to environmental conditions in the Central Amazon Basin near Manaus during the GoAmazon2014/5 and ACRIDICON-CHUVA experiments. This study takes advantage of the numerous measurement platforms and instrument systems operating during both campaigns to sample cloud structure and environmental conditions during 2014 and 2015; the rainfall variability among seasons, aerosol loading, land surface type, and topography has been carefully characterized using these data. Differences between the wet and dry seasons were examined from a variety of perspectives. The rainfall rates distribution, total amount of rainfall, and raindrop size distribution (the mass-weighted mean diameter) were quantified over both seasons. The dry season generally exhibited higher rainfall rates than the wet season and included more intense rainfall periods. However, the cumulative rainfall during the wet season was 4 times greater than that during the total dry season rainfall, as shown in the total rainfall accumulation data. The typical size and life cycle of Amazon cloud clusters (observed by satellite) and rain cells (observed by radar) were examined, as were differences in these systems between the seasons. Moreover, monthly mean thermodynamic and dynamic variables were analysed using radiosondes to elucidate the differences in rainfall characteristics during the wet and dry seasons. The sensitivity of rainfall to atmospheric aerosol loading was discussed with regard to mass-weighted mean diameter and rain rate. This topic was evaluated only during the wet season due to the insignificant statistics of rainfall events for different aerosol loading ranges and the low frequency of precipitation events during the dry season. The impacts of aerosols on cloud droplet diameter varied based on droplet size. For the wet season, we observed no dependence between land surface type and rain rate. However, during the dry season, urban areas exhibited the largest rainfall rate tail distribution, and deforested regions exhibited the lowest mean rainfall rate. Airplane measurements were taken to characterize and contrast cloud microphysical properties and processes over forested and deforested regions. Vertical motion was not correlated with cloud droplet sizes, but cloud droplet concentration correlated linearly with vertical motion. Clouds over forested areas contained larger droplets than clouds over pastures at all altitudes. Finally, the connections between topography and rain rate were evaluated, with higher rainfall rates identified at higher elevations during the dry season.

Changes in South Pacific rainfall bands in a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widlansky, M. J.; Timmermann, A.; Stein, K.; McGregor, S.; Schneider, N.; England, M. H.; Lengaigne, M.; Cai, W.

2012-12-01

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest rainband in the Southern Hemisphere and provides most of the rainfall to Southwest Pacific island nations. In spite of various modeling efforts, it remains uncertain how the SPCZ will respond to greenhouse warming. A multi-model ensemble average of 21st century climate change projections from the current-generation of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) suggests a slightly wetter Southwest Pacific; however, inter-model uncertainty is greater than projected rainfall changes in the SPCZ region. Using a hierarchy of climate models we show that the uncertainty of SPCZ rainfall projections in the Southwest Pacific can be explained as a result of two competing mechanisms. Higher tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) lead to an overall increase of atmospheric moisture and rainfall while weaker SST gradients dynamically shift the SPCZ northeastward (see illustration) and promote summer drying in areas of the Southwest Pacific, similar to the response to strong El Niño events. Based on a multi-model ensemble of 55 greenhouse warming experiments and for moderate tropical warming of 2-3°C we estimate a 5% decrease of SPCZ rainfall, although uncertainty exceeds ±30% among CGCMs. For stronger tropical warming, a tendency for a wetter SPCZ region is identified.; Illustration of the "warmest gets wetter" response to projected 21st century greenhouse warming. Green shading depicts observed (1982-2009) rainfall during DJF (contour interval: 2 mm/day; starting at 1 mm/day). Blue (red) contours depict warming less (more) than the tropical mean (42.5°N/S) 21st century multi-model trend (contour interval: 0.2°C; starting at ±0.1°C).

Impacts of climate change on rainfall, seasonal flooding, and evapotranspiration in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konecky, B. L.; Noone, D.; Mosimanyana, E.; Gondwe, M.

2016-12-01

The Okavango Delta in northern Botswana is one of the world's richest biodiversity hotspots. A UNESCO World Heritage Site, the Delta is known for its unique annual flood pulse, whereby the wetland and its neighboring river systems are inundated with waters that travel nearly 1000 km before reaching this subtropical, semi-arid destination. The livelihoods of northern Botswana's ecosystems and human populations rely on these floods to supplement the short and variable rainy season, which in many years is too minimal to ameliorate regional drought. However, anthropogenic climate change is reducing the amount of water that reaches the delta by increasing evaporation from soils and rivers, and transpiration by vegetation, during its long transit to Botswana. Future changes in rainfall patterns, extreme events, and increased upstream water use could exacerbate this water stress. Unfortunately, it remains difficult to assess the impacts of climate change on the delta because few data exist to constrain its complex climatic and seasonal water cycling regimes. This study presents a novel characterization of the water cycle in and around the Okavango Delta based on a survey of free-flowing surface waters, stagnant pools, precipitation, and groundwater carried out during the 2016 rainy and early-flood season. We use stable isotope and water quality data to assess local moisture sources, transport, evaporation, wetland flushing, and land-atmosphere exchanges, all of which are subject to change under global warming. We find a strong evaporation gradient and a progressive flushing of stagnant swamp waters along the northeastern and northwestern channels of the Delta. The evaporation gradient is more limited in nearby rivers with more limited wetlands. We contrast results with a survey of the Delta performed in the 1970's in order to assess changes over the past 40 years. Since some of these changes may arise from rainfall supply, we also present new analysis of rainfall moisture sources and transport characteristics during 2016's unusually-late wet season, using both in situ and satellite data. Implications are discussed for the large-scale water cycling over the southern African continental interior. These data serve as a baseline for future monitoring under climate change.

Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm- and cold-season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.

2014-01-01

Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm-season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold-season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. We further hypothesize that the transient mass fluxes associated with the temporal-spatial dynamics of interflow govern the timing of shallow landslide initiation, and subsequent debris flow mobilization. The first objective of this study is to investigate this relationship. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations; availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions; and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions necessary for the initiation of slope instability, and should therefore be considered explicitly in landslide hazard assessments. Moreover, the relationships between slope stability and interflow are strongly modulated by the topography and catchment-specific geomorphologic features that determine subsurface flow convergence zones. The three case studies demonstrate the value of coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation potential in the context of developing a regional hazard warning system.

Climate change impacts on hillslope runoff on the northern Great Plains, 1962-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coles, A. E.; McConkey, B. G.; McDonnell, J. J.

2017-07-01

On the Great Plains of North America, water resources are being threatened by climatic shifts. However, a lack of hillslope-scale climate-runoff observations is limiting our ability to understand these impacts. Here, we present a 52-year (1962-2013) dataset (precipitation, temperature, snow cover, soil water content, and runoff) from three 5 ha hillslopes on the seasonally-frozen northern Great Plains. In this region, snowmelt-runoff drives c. 80% of annual runoff and is potentially vulnerable to warming temperatures and changes in precipitation amount and phase. We assessed trends in these climatological and hydrological variables using time series analysis. We found that spring snowmelt-runoff has decreased (on average by 59%) in response to a reduction in winter snowfall (by 18%), but that rainfall-runoff has shown no significant response to a 51% increase in rainfall or shifts to more multi-day rain events. In summer, unfrozen, deep, high-infiltrability soils act as a 'shock absorber' to rainfall, buffering the long-term runoff response to rainfall. Meanwhile, during winter and spring freshet, frozen ground limits soil infiltrability and results in runoff responses that more closely mirror the snowfall and snowmelt trends. These findings are counter to climate-runoff relationships observed at the catchment scale on the northern Great Plains where land drainage alterations dominate. At the hillslope scale, decreasing snowfall, snowmelt-runoff, and spring soil water content is causing agricultural productivity to be increasingly dependent on growing season precipitation, and will likely accentuate the impact of droughts.

Dynamics of intense rainfalls in the southern half of European Russia for the period 1960-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chizhikova, N.

2018-01-01

Two time periods (1960-1986 and 1986-2015) were compared in terms of mean annual frequency and mean annual sum of warm season rainfalls to quantify general trends in the changing regime of heavy precipitation over the southern part of European Russia, which is the area of the most intensive agricultural activity. The identified trends were compared with the published assessment of the intensity trends of soil erosion processes. The prevalence of the increasing tendency in the frequency and amount of precipitation is demonstrated, which undergoes against a decrease in the rate of eroded sediment accumulation and against a decrease of linear growth rate of gullies. This result rather proves the crucial contribution of the snowmelt to the soil erosion over the studied area.

Warm Water Pools of the Western Caribbean and Eastern Tropical Pacific: Their Influence on Intraseasonal Rainfall Regimes and Tropical Storm Activity in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douglas, A. V.; Englehart, P. J.

2007-05-01

A dipole in tropical cyclone development between the Caribbean and the eastern tropical Pacific will be examined relative to its affect on southern Mexican rainfall. With the change over in the AMO and PDO in 1994 and 1998, respectively, tropical storm genesis has been increasing in the Caribbean while declining in the tropical east Pacific. This dipole in tropical cyclone development appears to be related to changes in the pre storm season heat content of the two ocean basins (data Scripps Institution of Oceanography). Preliminary work indicates that if the Caribbean is warmer than the Pacific by late May the dipole will be accentuated with a pronounced decrease in tropical storms in the east Pacific with an early and prolonged season in the Caribbean. In recent years there appears to have been an increase in the intensity and duration of midsummer drought (Canicula) in Mexico associated with changes in the PDO and AMO. These long term ocean oscillations appear to control the dipole in the strength of the Caribbean and East Pacific warm pools. Mid summer drought is a normal occurrence in much of Mexico and Central America, but the intensified droughts of the recent period have stressed the agricultural community of the region. Based on preliminary work, it appears that the recent increased frequency of midsummer drought can be linked to a shift in the warmest pool from the East Pacific to the Caribbean.

Variability of the recent climate of eastern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schreck, Carl J., III; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.

2004-05-01

The primary objective of this study is to investigate the recent variability of the eastern African climate. The region of interest is also known as the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), and comprises the countries of Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, and Tanzania.The analysis was based primarily on the construction of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of gauge rainfall data and on CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data, derived from a combination of rain-gauge observations and satellite estimates. The investigation is based on the period 1961-2001 for the short rains season of eastern Africa of October through to December. The EOF analysis was supplemented by projection of National Centers for Environmental Prediction wind data onto the rainfall eigenmodes to understand the rainfall-circulation relationships. Furthermore, correlation and composite analyses have been performed with the Climatic Research Unit globally averaged surface-temperature time series to explore the potential relationship between the climate of eastern Africa and global warming.The most dominant mode of variability (EOF1) based on CMAP data over eastern Africa corresponds to El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) climate variability. It is associated with above-normal rainfall amounts during the short rains throughout the entire region, except for Sudan. The corresponding anomalous low-level circulation is dominated by easterly inflow from the Indian Ocean, and to a lesser extent the Congo tropical rain forest, into the positive rainfall anomaly region that extends across most of eastern Africa. The easterly inflow into eastern Africa is part of diffluent outflow from the maritime continent during the warm ENSO events. The second eastern African EOF (trend mode) is associated with decadal variability. In distinct contrast from the ENSO mode pattern, the trend mode is characterized by positive rainfall anomalies over the northern sector of eastern Africa and opposite conditions over the southern sector. This rainfall trend mode eluded detection in previous studies that did not include recent decades of data, because the signal was still relatively weak. The wind projection onto this mode indicates that the primary flow that feeds the positive anomaly region over the northern part of eastern Africa emanates primarily from the rainfall-deficient southern region of eastern Africa and Sudan. Although we do not assign attribution of the trend mode to global warming (in part because of the relatively short period of analysis), the evidence, based on our results and previous studies, strongly suggests a potential connection.

Intra-seasonal rainfall variability during the maize growing season in the northern lowlands of Lesotho

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tongwane, Mphethe Isaac; Moeletsi, Mokhele Edmond

2015-05-01

Intra-seasonal rainfall distribution was identified as a priority gap that needs to be addressed for southern Africa to cope with agro-meteorological risks. The region in the northwest of Lesotho is appropriate for crop cultivation due to its relatively favourable climatic conditions and soils. High rainfall variability is often blamed for poor agricultural production in this region. This study aims to determine the onset of rains, cessation of rains and rainy season duration using historical climate data. Temporal variability of these rainy season characteristics was also investigated. The earliest and latest onset dates of the rainy season are during the last week of October at Butha-Buthe and the third week of November at Mapoteng, respectively. Cessation of the season is predominantly in the first week of April making the season approximately 137-163 days long depending on the location. Average seasonal rainfall ranged from 474 mm at Mapoteng to 668 mm at Butha-Buthe. Onset and cessation of the rainfall season vary by 4-7 weeks and 1 week, respectively. Mean coefficient of variation of seasonal rainfall is 39 %, but monthly variations are higher. These variations make annual crop management and planning difficult each year. Trends show a decrease in the rainfall amounts but improvements in both the temporal distribution of annual rainfall, onset and cessation dates.

South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability and Trend: Its Links to Indo-Pacific SST Anomalies and Moist Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasanna, V.

2016-06-01

The warm (cold) phase of El Niño (La Niña) and its impact on all Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall (AISMR) relationship is explored for the past 100 years. The 103-year (1901-2003) data from the twentieth century reanalysis datasets (20CR) and other major reanalysis datasets for southwest monsoon season (JJAS) is utilized to find out the simultaneous influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-AISMR relationship. Two cases such as wet, dry monsoon years associated with ENSO(+) (El Niño), ENSO(-) (La Niña) and Non-ENSO (neutral) events have been discussed in detail using observed rainfall and three-dimensional 20CR dataset. The dry and wet years associated with ENSO and Non-ENSO periods show significant differences in the spatial pattern of rainfall associated with three-dimensional atmospheric composite, the 20CR dataset has captured the anomalies quite well. During wet (dry) years, the rainfall is high (low), i.e. 10 % above (below) average from the long-term mean and this wet or dry condition occur both during ENSO and Non-ENSO phases. The Non-ENSO year dry or wet composites are also focused in detail to understand, where do the anomalous winds come from unlike in the ENSO case. The moisture transport is coherent with the changes in the spatial pattern of AISMR and large-scale feature in the 20CR dataset. Recent 50-year trend (1951-2000) is also analyzed from various available observational and reanalysis datasets to see the influence of Indo-Pacific SST and moist processes on the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall trend. Apart from the Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST), the moisture convergence and moisture transport among India (IND), Equatorial Indian Ocean (IOC) and tropical western pacific (WNP) is also important in modifying the wet or dry cycles over India. The mutual interaction among IOC, WNP and IND in seasonal timescales is significant in modifying wet and dry cycles over the Indian region and the seasonal anomalies.

Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Chan; Wu, Peili; Zhang, Lixia; Song, Lianchun

2016-12-01

Global warming increases the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and consequently the potential risks of extreme rainfall. Here we show that maximum hourly summer rainfall intensity has increased by about 11.2% on average, using continuous hourly gauge records for 1971-2013 from 721 weather stations in China. The corresponding event accumulated precipitation has on average increased by more than 10% aided by a small positive trend in events duration. Linear regression of the 95th percentile daily precipitation intensity with daily mean surface air temperature shows a negative scaling of -9.6%/K, in contrast to a positive scaling of 10.6%/K for hourly data. This is made up of a positive scaling below the summer mean temperature and a negative scaling above. Using seasonal means instead of daily means, we find a consistent scaling rate for the region of 6.7-7%/K for both daily and hourly precipitation extremes, about 10% higher than the regional Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 6.1%/K based on a mean temperature of 24.6 °C. With up to 18% further increase in extreme precipitation under continuing global warming towards the IPCC’s 1.5 °C target, risks of flash floods will exacerbate on top of the current incapability of urban drainage systems in a rapidly urbanizing China.

On Rainfall Modification by Major Urban Areas. Part 1; Observations from Space-borne Rain Radar Aboard TRMM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshell; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A novel approach is introduced to correlating urbanization and rainfall modification. This study represents one of the first published attempts (possibly the first) to identify and quantify rainfall modification by urban areas using satellite-based rainfall measurements. Previous investigations successfully used rain gauge networks and around-based radar to investigate this phenomenon but still encountered difficulties due to limited, specialized measurements and separation of topographic and other influences. Three years of mean monthly rainfall rates derived from the first space-based rainfall radar, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Precipitation Radar, are employed. Analysis of data at half-degree latitude resolution enables identification of rainfall patterns around major metropolitan areas of Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas during the warm season. Preliminary results reveal an average increase of 5.6% in monthly rainfall rates (relative to a mean upwind CONTROL area) over the metropolis but an average increase of approx. 28%, in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis. Some portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates found in the downwind impact area exceeded the mean value in the upwind CONTROL area by 48%-116% and were generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. These results are quite consistent studies of St. Louis (e.g' METROMEX) and Chicago almost two decades ago and more recent studies in the Atlanta and Mexico City areas.

On the influence of simulated SST warming on rainfall projections in the Indo-Pacific domain: an AGCM study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Huqiang; Zhao, Y.; Moise, A.; Ye, H.; Colman, R.; Roff, G.; Zhao, M.

2018-02-01

Significant uncertainty exists in regional climate change projections, particularly for rainfall and other hydro-climate variables. In this study, we conduct a series of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments with different future sea surface temperature (SST) warming simulated by a range of coupled climate models. They allow us to assess the extent to which uncertainty from current coupled climate model rainfall projections can be attributed to their simulated SST warming. Nine CMIP5 model-simulated global SST warming anomalies have been super-imposed onto the current SSTs simulated by the Australian climate model ACCESS1.3. The ACCESS1.3 SST-forced experiments closely reproduce rainfall means and interannual variations as in its own fully coupled experiments. Although different global SST warming intensities explain well the inter-model difference in global mean precipitation changes, at regional scales the SST influence vary significantly. SST warming explains about 20-25% of the patterns of precipitation changes in each of the four/five models in its rainfall projections over the oceans in the Indo-Pacific domain, but there are also a couple of models in which different SST warming explains little of their precipitation pattern changes. The influence is weaker again for rainfall changes over land. Roughly similar levels of contribution can be attributed to different atmospheric responses to SST warming in these models. The weak SST influence in our study could be due to the experimental setup applied: superimposing different SST warming anomalies onto the same SSTs simulated for current climate by ACCESS1.3 rather than directly using model-simulated past and future SSTs. Similar modelling and analysis from other modelling groups with more carefully designed experiments are needed to tease out uncertainties caused by different SST warming patterns, different SST mean biases and different model physical/dynamical responses to the same underlying SST forcing.

Spatio-temporal variability and trends of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia in 1980-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gummadi, Sridhar; Rao, K. P. C.; Seid, Jemal; Legesse, Gizachew; Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Takele, Robel; Amede, Tilahun; Whitbread, Anthony

2017-12-01

This article summarizes the results from an analysis conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in the rainfall over Ethiopia over a period of 31 years from 1980 to 2010. The data is mostly observed station data supplemented by bias-corrected AgMERRA climate data. Changes in annual and Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June to September) season rainfalls and rainy days have been analysed over the entire Ethiopia. Rainfall is characterized by high temporal variability with coefficient of variation (CV, %) varying from 9 to 30% in the annual, 9 to 69% during the Kiremt season and 15-55% during the Belg season rainfall amounts. Rainfall variability increased disproportionately as the amount of rainfall declined from 700 to 100 mm or less. No significant trend was observed in the annual rainfall amounts over the country, but increasing and decreasing trends were observed in the seasonal rainfall amounts in some areas. A declining trend is also observed in the number of rainy days especially in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. Trends in seasonal rainfall indicated a general decline in the Belg season and an increase in the Kiremt season rainfall amounts. The increase in rainfall during the main Kiremt season along with the decrease in the number of rainy days leads to an increase in extreme rainfall events over Ethiopia. The trends in the 95th-percentile rainfall events illustrate that the annual extreme rainfall events are increasing over the eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia covering Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. During the Belg season, extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over central Ethiopia extending towards the southern part of the country while during the Kiremt season, they are observed over parts of Oromia, (covering Borena, Guji, Bali, west Harerge and east Harerge), Somali, Gambella, southern Tigray and Afar regions. Changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over south-eastern parts of Ethiopia extending to the south-west covering Somali and Oromia regions. Similar trends are also observed in the greatest 3-, 5- and 10-day rainfall amounts. Changes in the consecutive dry and wet days showed that consecutive wet days during Belg and Kiremt seasons decreased significantly in many areas in Ethiopia while consecutive dry days increased. The consistency in the trends over large spatial areas confirms the robustness of the trends and serves as a basis for understanding the projected changes in the climate. These results were discussed in relation to their significance to agriculture.

A Downscaling Analysis of the Urban Influence on Rainfall: TRMM Satellite Component AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Burian, Steven J.

2002-01-01

A recent publication by Shepherd et al. (2002) demonstrated the feasibility of using TRMM precipitation radar (PR) estimates to identify precipitation anomalies caused by urbanization. The approach is particularly useful for investigating this global process because TRMM data span large portions of the globe and comprise an extended temporal dataset. Recent literature suggests that urbanized regions of Houston, Texas may be influencing lightning and precipitation formation over and downwind of the city. Possible mechanisms include: (1) enhanced convergence through interactions between the sea breeze, Galveston bay breeze, and urban heat island circulations, (2) enhanced convergence due to increased surface roughness over the city and/or destabilization of the boundary layer by the UHI, or (3) enhanced cloud condensation nuclei due to urban and industrial aerosol sources. In this study, a downscaling analysis of spatial and temporal trends in rainfall around the Houston Area is being conducted. The downscaling analysis concept involves identifying and quantifying urban rainfall anomalies at progressively smaller spatial and temporal scales using the TRMM satellite, ground-based radar, and a dense network of rain gauges. The goal is to test the hypothesis that the Houston urban district and regions in the climatological downwind region of the city exhibit enhanced rainfall amounts relative to the climatological upwind regions. TRMM was launched in 1997 and currently operates in a low-inclination (35 deg), non-sun-synchronous orbit at an altitude of 402 km (350 km prior to August 2001). The satellite analysis follows the methodologies described in Shepherd et al. (2002). Nearly five years of TRMM PR-derived mean monthly rainfall estimates are utilized to produce annual and warm season isohyetal analyses around Houston. Early results indicate that rainfall rates (mm/h) for the entire period are largest within 100 km northeast and east of Houston (e.g. the "hypothesized downwind region"). The mean rainfall rate over the Houston urban center is 30.5% larger than the upwind control region. The mean rainfall rate in the downwind region is 34.4% larger than the upwind region. An analysis of a parameter called the urban rainfall ratio (URR) illustrates that 65% (88%) of the satellite-derived rainfall rates in the downwind (upwind control) region are greater (less) than the mean background rainfall rate of the entire study region. When the data is stratified by summer months from 1998 to 2001 (June-August), even greater influence over and downwind of the urban area is observed in the statistics. This result is consistent with published reports of urban-generated rainfall being more prevalent in the warm season. The research demonstrates that the evolving TRMM satellite climatology is a credible way to detect mesoscale precipitation signatures that may be linked to urbanization. Early results also corroborate recent findings on Houston-induced convection/drainfall anomalies. Burian and Shepherd will report on other aspects of the downscaling analysis in future forums, but early rain gauge results are consistent with the satellite-based observations.

The response of vegetation structure to active warming and precipitation reduction of the Sphagnum peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Łuców, Dominika; Basińska, Anna; Chojnicki, Bogdan; Gąbka, Maciej; Józefczyk, Damian; Juszczak, Radosław; Leśny, Jacek; Olejnik, Janusz; Reczuga, Monika; Samson, Mateusz; Silvennoinen, Hanna; Stróżecki, Marcin; Urbaniak, Marek; Zielińska, Małgorzata; Lamentowicz, Mariusz

2017-04-01

The recent climate change (e.g. increased temperature and decreased precipitation) is expected to affect biodiversity and vegetation structure of the European peatlands, as well as carbon fluxes. Our experimental study carried out in Western Poland, tests the hypothesis that the increased temperature, in particular in combination with rainfall reduction affects vegetation structure of the Sphagnum peatland, through changes in moss and vascular plants abundance. The innovative climate manipulation system was installed on the Rzecin peatland in 2014. The field site consists of four blocks: "drought" "warming and drought" "warming" and "control". The air and peat temperatures were increased in 2015 and 2016 by about 0.2 oC and 1.0 oC, respectively, using infrared radiators. Precipitation was reduced by automatic curtain operated only during the nights by about 37 % in both years. Data resulting from the analyses of digital pictures as well as Point Intercept method were used to identify changes in vegetation structure as a response to warming and drought. We observed increase in abundance of vascular plant and decrease in abundance of mosses during the very dry 2015 vegetation season. It appeared that Carex spp. (C. limosa and C. rostrata) abundance responded positively to warming, while Sphagnum spp. (S. angustifolium and S. teres) responded negatively. The "warming" block was characterized by an increase in abundance of Carex spp. by 8.3 % to 16.7 % and decreased abundance of Sphagnum spp. from 25 % to 19.4 %, whereas in the block of "warming and drought" 11.4 % to by 18.3 and 38 % to 26.9 %, respectively in the August 2015. However, we observed decrease in Sphagnum spp. abundance in the treatment with rainfall reduction in wetter 2016, and their increase in the control. Our results show how considerable changes in vegetation structure can be expected under the stress of warming and modified rainfall conditions, even after a short-term manipulation. However, it is still challenging to explore air temperature as a key variable driving the observed species turnover. Therefore the study needs to be continued in the following years. We plan to synthesize vegetation data with carbon fluxes to obtain a better understanding of the response of peatland ecosystem to global warming. The Research was co-founded by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development within the Polish-Norwegian Research Programme within the WETMAN project (Central European Wetland Ecosystem Feedbacks to Changing Climate - Field Scale Manipulation, Project ID: 203258, contract No. Pol-Nor/203258/31/2013 (www.wetman.pl).

Rainfall Modification by Urban Areas: New Perspectives from TRMM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Pierce, Harold F.; Negri, Andrew

2002-01-01

Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) were employed to identify warm season rainfall (1998-2000) patterns around Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas. Results reveal an average increase of -28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage changes are relative to an upwind control area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area exceeded the mean value in the upwind control area by 48% - 116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. Results are consistent with METROMEX studies of St. Louis almost two decades ago and with more recent studies near Atlanta. Future work is extending the investigation to Phoenix, Arizona, an arid U.S. city, and several international cities like Mexico City, Johannesburg, and Brasilia. The study establishes the possibility of utilizing satellite-based rainfall estimates for examining rainfall modification by urban areas on global scales and over longer time periods. Such research has implications for weather forecasting, urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment and climate.

Changing character of rainfall in eastern China, 1951-2007.

PubMed

Day, Jesse A; Fung, Inez; Liu, Weihan

2018-02-27

The topography and continental configuration of East Asia favor the year-round existence of storm tracks that extend thousands of kilometers from China into the northwestern Pacific Ocean, producing zonally elongated patterns of rainfall that we call "frontal rain events." In spring and early summer (known as "Meiyu Season"), frontal rainfall intensifies and shifts northward during a series of stages collectively known as the East Asian summer monsoon. Using a technique called the Frontal Rain Event Detection Algorithm, we create a daily catalog of all frontal rain events in east China during 1951-2007, quantify their attributes, and classify all rainfall on each day as either frontal, resulting from large-scale convergence, or nonfrontal, produced by local buoyancy, topography, or typhoons. Our climatology shows that the East Asian summer monsoon consists of a series of coupled changes in frontal rain event frequency, latitude, and daily accumulation. Furthermore, decadal changes in the amount and distribution of rainfall in east China are overwhelmingly due to changes in frontal rainfall. We attribute the "South Flood-North Drought" pattern observed beginning in the 1980s to changes in the frequency of frontal rain events, while the years 1994-2007 witnessed an uptick in event daily accumulation relative to the rest of the study years. This particular signature may reflect the relative impacts of global warming, aerosol loading, and natural variability on regional rainfall, potentially via shifting the East Asian jet stream.

Late Noachian Climate Of Mars: Constraints From Valley Network System Formation Times And The Intermittencies (Episodic/Periodic And Punctuated).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, James

2017-04-01

Formation of Late Noachian-Early Hesperian (LN-EH) valley network systems (VNS) signaled the presence of warm/wet conditions generating several hypotheses for climates permissive of these conditions. To constrain options for the ambient Noachian climate, we examine estimates for time required to carve channels/deltas and total duration implied by plausible intermittencies. Formation Times for VN, OBL, Deltas, Fans: A synthesis of required timescales show that even with the longest estimated continuous duration of VN formation/intermittencies, total time to carve the VN does not exceed 106 years, <˜0.25% of the total Noachian. Intermittency/episodicity assumptions are climate-model dependent (e.g., most workers use Earth-like fluvial activity and intermittency). Noachian-Early Hesperian Climate Models: 1) Warm and wet/semiarid/arid climate: Sustained background MAT >273 K, hydrological system vertically integrated, and rainfall occurs to recharge the aquifer. Two subtypes: a) "Rainfall/Fluvial Erosion-Dominated Warm and Wet Model": "Rainfall and surface runoff" persist throughout Noachian to explain crater degradation, and a LN-EH short rapidly ending terminal epoch. b) "Recharge Evaporation/Evaporite Dominated Warm and Wet Model": Sustained period of equatorial/mid-latitude precipitation and a vertically integrated hydrological system driven by evaporative upwelling and fluctuating shallow water table playa environments account for sulfate evaporate environments at Meridiani Planum. Sustained temperatures >273 K are required for extended periods (107-108 years). 2) Cold and icy climate: Sustained background temperatures extremely low (MAT ˜225 K), cryosphere is globally continuous, hydrological system is horizontally stratified, separating groundwater system from surface; no combination of spin-axis/orbital perturbations can raise MAT to 273 K. Adiabatic cooling effects transfer water to high altitudes, leading to "Late Noachian Icy Highlands Model". VNS cannot form in this nominal climate environment without special circumstances (e.g., impacts or volcanic eruptions elevate of temperatures by >˜50 K to induce melting and fluvial/lacustrine activity). 3) Cold and Icy climate warmed by greenhouse gases: The climate is sustained cold/icy model, but greenhouse gases of unspecified nature/amount/duration elevate MAT by several tens of Kelvins (say 25 K, to MAT 250 K), bringing annual temperature range into the realm where peak seasonal temperatures (PST) exceed 273 K. In this climate environment, analogous to the Antarctic Dry Valleys, seasonal summer temperatures above 273 K are sufficient to melt snow/ice and form fluvial and lacustrine features, but MAT is well below 273 K (253 K). Fluvial systems driven by episodic/periodic intermittency typically involve short intermittency time-scales (10-106 years) but require a warm climate (MAT >273 K) to be sustained for >0.4 x 109 years. Fluvial systems driven by punctuated intermittency typically involve short duration time-scales (10-105 years) but only require a warm climate (MAT >273 K) for the very short duration of the climatic impact of the punctuated event (102-105 years). We conclude that a cold and icy background climate with punctuated intermittency of warming and melting events is consistent with: 1) the estimated durations of continuous VN formation (<105 years) and 2) VN system estimated recurrence rates (106-107 years).

Overview: Precipitation characteristics and sensitivities to environmental conditions during GoAmazon2014/5 and ACRIDICON-CHUVA

DOE PAGES

Machado, Luiz A. T.; Calheiros, Alan J. P.; Biscaro, Thiago; ...

2018-05-07

This study provides an overview of precipitation processes and their sensitivities to environmental conditions in the Central Amazon Basin near Manaus during the GoAmazon2014/5 and ACRIDICON-CHUVA experiments. Here, this study takes advantage of the numerous measurement platforms and instrument systems operating during both campaigns to sample cloud structure and environmental conditions during 2014 and 2015; the rainfall variability among seasons, aerosol loading, land surface type, and topography has been carefully characterized using these data. Differences between the wet and dry seasons were examined from a variety of perspectives. The rainfall rates distribution, total amount of rainfall, and raindrop size distribution (the mass-weightedmore » mean diameter) were quantified over both seasons. The dry season generally exhibited higher rainfall rates than the wet season and included more intense rainfall periods. However, the cumulative rainfall during the wet season was 4 times greater than that during the total dry season rainfall, as shown in the total rainfall accumulation data. The typical size and life cycle of Amazon cloud clusters (observed by satellite) and rain cells (observed by radar) were examined, as were differences in these systems between the seasons. Moreover, monthly mean thermodynamic and dynamic variables were analysed using radiosondes to elucidate the differences in rainfall characteristics during the wet and dry seasons. The sensitivity of rainfall to atmospheric aerosol loading was discussed with regard to mass-weighted mean diameter and rain rate. This topic was evaluated only during the wet season due to the insignificant statistics of rainfall events for different aerosol loading ranges and the low frequency of precipitation events during the dry season. The impacts of aerosols on cloud droplet diameter varied based on droplet size. For the wet season, we observed no dependence between land surface type and rain rate. However, during the dry season, urban areas exhibited the largest rainfall rate tail distribution, and deforested regions exhibited the lowest mean rainfall rate. Airplane measurements were taken to characterize and contrast cloud microphysical properties and processes over forested and deforested regions. Vertical motion was not correlated with cloud droplet sizes, but cloud droplet concentration correlated linearly with vertical motion. Clouds over forested areas contained larger droplets than clouds over pastures at all altitudes. Finally, the connections between topography and rain rate were evaluated, with higher rainfall rates identified at higher elevations during the dry season.« less

Overview: Precipitation characteristics and sensitivities to environmental conditions during GoAmazon2014/5 and ACRIDICON-CHUVA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Machado, Luiz A. T.; Calheiros, Alan J. P.; Biscaro, Thiago

This study provides an overview of precipitation processes and their sensitivities to environmental conditions in the Central Amazon Basin near Manaus during the GoAmazon2014/5 and ACRIDICON-CHUVA experiments. Here, this study takes advantage of the numerous measurement platforms and instrument systems operating during both campaigns to sample cloud structure and environmental conditions during 2014 and 2015; the rainfall variability among seasons, aerosol loading, land surface type, and topography has been carefully characterized using these data. Differences between the wet and dry seasons were examined from a variety of perspectives. The rainfall rates distribution, total amount of rainfall, and raindrop size distribution (the mass-weightedmore » mean diameter) were quantified over both seasons. The dry season generally exhibited higher rainfall rates than the wet season and included more intense rainfall periods. However, the cumulative rainfall during the wet season was 4 times greater than that during the total dry season rainfall, as shown in the total rainfall accumulation data. The typical size and life cycle of Amazon cloud clusters (observed by satellite) and rain cells (observed by radar) were examined, as were differences in these systems between the seasons. Moreover, monthly mean thermodynamic and dynamic variables were analysed using radiosondes to elucidate the differences in rainfall characteristics during the wet and dry seasons. The sensitivity of rainfall to atmospheric aerosol loading was discussed with regard to mass-weighted mean diameter and rain rate. This topic was evaluated only during the wet season due to the insignificant statistics of rainfall events for different aerosol loading ranges and the low frequency of precipitation events during the dry season. The impacts of aerosols on cloud droplet diameter varied based on droplet size. For the wet season, we observed no dependence between land surface type and rain rate. However, during the dry season, urban areas exhibited the largest rainfall rate tail distribution, and deforested regions exhibited the lowest mean rainfall rate. Airplane measurements were taken to characterize and contrast cloud microphysical properties and processes over forested and deforested regions. Vertical motion was not correlated with cloud droplet sizes, but cloud droplet concentration correlated linearly with vertical motion. Clouds over forested areas contained larger droplets than clouds over pastures at all altitudes. Finally, the connections between topography and rain rate were evaluated, with higher rainfall rates identified at higher elevations during the dry season.« less

Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability during 2014 and 2015 and associated Indo-Pacific upper ocean temperature patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kakatkar, Rashmi; Gnanaseelan, C.; Chowdary, J. S.; Parekh, Anant; Deepa, J. S.

2018-02-01

In this study, factors responsible for the deficit Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall in 2014 and 2015 and the ability of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology-Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (IITM-GODAS) in representing the oceanic features are examined. IITM-GODAS has been used to provide initial conditions for seasonal forecast in India during 2014 and 2015. The years 2014 and 2015 witnessed deficit ISM rainfall but were evolved from two entirely different preconditions over Pacific. This raises concern over the present understanding of the role of Pacific Ocean on ISM variability. Analysis reveals that the mechanisms associated with the rainfall deficit over the Indian Subcontinent are different in the two years. It is found that remote forcing in summer of 2015 due to El Niño is mostly responsible for the deficit monsoon rainfall through changes in Walker circulation and large-scale subsidence. In the case of the summer of 2014, both local circulation with anomalous anticyclone over central India and intrusion of mid-latitude dry winds from north have contributed for the deficit rainfall. In addition to the above, Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) and remote forcing from Pacific Ocean also modulated the ISM rainfall. It is observed that Pacific SST warming has extended westward in 2014, making it a basin scale warming unlike the strong El Niño year 2015. The eastern equatorial Indian Ocean is anomalously warmer than west in summer of 2014, and vice versa in 2015. These differences in SST in both tropical Pacific and TIO have considerable impact on ISM rainfall in 2014 and 2015. The study reveals that initializing coupled forecast models with proper upper ocean temperature over the Indo-Pacific is therefore essential for improved model forecast. It is important to note that the IITM-GODAS which assimilates only array for real-time geostrophic oceanography (ARGO) temperature and salinity profiles could capture most of the observed surface and subsurface temperature variations from early spring to summer during the years 2014 and 2015 over the Indo-Pacific region. This study highlights the importance of maintaining observing systems such as ARGO for accurate monsoon forecast.

An Investigation of the Influence of Urban Areas on Rainfall Using a Cloud-Mesoscale Model and the TRMM Satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Starr, David O'C (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A recent paper by Shepherd and Pierce (conditionally accepted to Journal of Applied Meteorology) used rainfall data from the Precipitation Radar on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) satellite to identify warm season rainfall anomalies downwind of major urban areas. A convective-mesoscale model with extensive land-surface processes is employed to (a) determine if an urban heat island (UHI) thermal perturbation can induce a dynamic response to affect rainfall processes and (b) quantify the impact of the following three factors on the evolution of rainfall: (1) urban surface roughness, (2) magnitude of the UHI temperature anomaly, and (3) physical size of the UHI temperature anomaly. The sensitivity experiments are achieved by inserting a slab of land with urban properties (e.g. roughness length, albedo, thermal character) within a rural surface environment and varying the appropriate lower boundary condition parameters. Early analysis suggests that urban surface roughness (through turbulence and low-level convergence) may control timing and initial location of UHI-induced convection. The magnitude of the heat island appears to be closely linked to the total rainfall amount with minor impact on timing and location. The physical size of the city may predominantly impact on the location of UHI-induced rainfall anomaly. The UHI factor parameter space will be thoroughly investigated with respect to their effects on rainfall amount, location, and timing. This study extends prior numerical investigations of the impact of urban surfaces on meteorological processes, particularly rainfall development. The work also contains several novel aspects, including the application of a high-resolution (less than I km) cloud-mesoscale model to investigate urban-induce rainfall process; investigation of thermal magnitude of the UHI on rainfall process; and investigation of UHI physical size on rainfall processes.

Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall associated with ENSO and its Predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, C. S.; Huang, B.; Zhu, J.; Marx, L.; Kinter, J. L.; Shukla, J.

2015-12-01

The leading modes of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) rainfall variability and their seasonal predictability are investigated using the CFSv2 hindcasts initialized from multiple ocean analyses over the period of 1979-2008 and observation-based analyses. It is shown that the two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the observed ASM rainfall anomalies, which together account for about 34% of total variance, largely correspond to the ASM responses to the ENSO influences during the summers of the developing and decaying years of a Pacific anomalous event, respectively. These two ASM modes are then designated as the contemporary and delayed ENSO responses, respectively. It is demonstrated that the CFSv2 is capable of predicting these two dominant ASM modes up to the lead of 5 months. More importantly, the predictability of the ASM rainfall are much higher with respect to the delayed ENSO mode than the contemporary one, with the predicted principal component time series of the former maintaining high correlation skill and small ensemble spread with all lead months whereas the latter shows significant degradation in both measures with lead-time. A composite analysis for the ASM rainfall anomalies of all warm ENSO events in this period substantiates the finding that the ASM is more predictable following an ENSO event. The enhanced predictability mainly comes from the evolution of the warm SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean in the spring of the ENSO maturing phases and the persistence of the anomalous high sea surface pressure over the western Pacific in the subsequent summer, which the hindcasts are able to capture reasonably well. The results also show that the ensemble initialization with multiple ocean analyses improves the CFSv2's prediction skill of both ENSO and ASM rainfall. In fact, the skills of the ensemble mean hindcasts initialized from the four different ocean analyses are always equivalent to the best ones initialized from any individual ocean analysis, although the best performer varies with lead-time and starting calendar month.

A Novel Observation-Guided Approach for Evaluating Mesoscale Convective Systems Simulated by the DOE ACME Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Z.; Ma, P. L.; Hardin, J. C.; Houze, R.

2017-12-01

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the largest type of convective storms that develop when convection aggregates and induces mesoscale circulation features. Over North America, MCSs contribute over 60% of the total warm-season precipitation and over half of the extreme daily precipitation in the central U.S. Our recent study (Feng et al. 2016) found that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in this region are dominated by increased frequency and intensity of long-lived MCSs*. To date, global climate models typically do not run at a resolution high enough to explicitly simulate individual convective elements and may not have adequate process representations for MCSs, resulting in a large deficiency in projecting changes of the frequency of extreme precipitation events in future climate. In this study, we developed a novel observation-guided approach specifically designed to evaluate simulated MCSs in the Department of Energy's climate model, Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME). The ACME model has advanced treatments for convection and subgrid variability and for this study is run at 25 km and 100 km grid spacings. We constructed a robust MCS database consisting of over 500 MCSs from 3 warm-season observations by applying a feature-tracking algorithm to 4-km resolution merged geostationary satellite and 3-D NEXRAD radar network data over the Continental US. This high-resolution MCS database is then down-sampled to the 25 and 100 km ACME grids to re-characterize key MCS properties. The feature-tracking algorithm is adapted with the adjusted characteristics to identify MCSs from ACME model simulations. We demonstrate that this new analysis framework is useful for evaluating ACME's warm-season precipitation statistics associated with MCSs, and provides insights into the model process representations related to extreme precipitation events for future improvement. *Feng, Z., L. R. Leung, S. Hagos, R. A. Houze, C. D. Burleyson, and K. Balaguru (2016), More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall, Nat Commun, 7, 13429, doi: 10.1038/ncomms13429.

A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Williams, A. Park

2011-01-01

Observations and simulations link anthropogenic greenhouse and aerosol emissions with rapidly increasing Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Over the past 60 years, the Indian Ocean warmed two to three times faster than the central tropical Pacific, extending the tropical warm pool to the west by ~40° longitude (>4,000 km). This propensity toward rapid warming in the Indian Ocean has been the dominant mode of interannual variability among SSTs throughout the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (55°E–140°W) since at least 1948, explaining more variance than anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the atmosphere, the primary mode of variability has been a corresponding trend toward greatly increased convection and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean. The temperature and rainfall increases in this region have produced a westward extension of the western, ascending branch of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Diabatic heating due to increased mid-tropospheric water vapor condensation elicits a westward atmospheric response that sends an easterly flow of dry air aloft toward eastern Africa. In recent decades (1980–2009), this response has suppressed convection over tropical eastern Africa, decreasing precipitation during the ‘long-rains’ season of March–June. This trend toward drought contrasts with projections of increased rainfall in eastern Africa and more ‘El Niño-like’ conditions globally by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Increased Indian Ocean SSTs appear likely to continue to strongly modulate the Warm Pool circulation, reducing precipitation in eastern Africa, regardless of whether the projected trend in ENSO is realized. These results have important food security implications, informing agricultural development, environmental conservation, and water resource planning.

A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, A. Park; Funk, Christopher C.

2011-01-01

Observations and simulations link anthropogenic greenhouse and aerosol emissions with rapidly increasing Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Over the past 60 years, the Indian Ocean warmed two to three times faster than the central tropical Pacific, extending the tropical warm pool to the west by ~40° longitude (>4,000 km). This propensity toward rapid warming in the Indian Ocean has been the dominant mode of interannual variability among SSTs throughout the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (55°E–140°W) since at least 1948, explaining more variance than anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the atmosphere, the primary mode of variability has been a corresponding trend toward greatly increased convection and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean. The temperature and rainfall increases in this region have produced a westward extension of the western, ascending branch of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Diabatic heating due to increased mid-tropospheric water vapor condensation elicits a westward atmospheric response that sends an easterly flow of dry air aloft toward eastern Africa. In recent decades (1980–2009), this response has suppressed convection over tropical eastern Africa, decreasing precipitation during the ‘long-rains’ season of March–June. This trend toward drought contrasts with projections of increased rainfall in eastern Africa and more ‘El Niño-like’ conditions globally by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Increased Indian Ocean SSTs appear likely to continue to strongly modulate the Warm Pool circulation, reducing precipitation in eastern Africa, regardless of whether the projected trend in ENSO is realized. These results have important food security implications, informing agricultural development, environmental conservation, and water resource planning.

Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharmila, S.; Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.

2015-01-01

In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21st century indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30 day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70 day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming may notably modulate the ISM rainfall in future climate. Both extreme wet and dry episodes are likely to intensify and regionally extend in future climate with enhanced propensity of short active and long break spells. The SM (WM) could also be more wet (dry) in future due to the increment in longer active (break) spells. However, future changes in the spatial pattern during active/break phase of SM and WM are geographically inconsistent among the models. The results point out the growing climate-related vulnerability over Indian subcontinent, and further suggest the requisite of profound adaptation measures and better policy making in future.

Elevated CO2 and warming effects on grassland plant mortality are determined by the timing of rainfall.

PubMed

Hovenden, Mark J; Newton, Paul C D; Porter, Meagan

2017-05-01

Global warming is expected to increase the mortality rate of established plants in water-limited systems because of its effect on evapotranspiration. The rising CO 2 concentration ([CO 2 ]), however, should have the opposite effect because it reduces plant transpiration, delaying the onset of drought. This potential for elevated [CO 2 ] (eCO 2 ) to modify the warming effect on mortality should be related to prevailing moisture conditions. This study aimed to determine the impacts of warming by 2 °C and eCO 2 (550 μmol mol -1 ) on plant mortality in an Australian temperate grassland over a 6-year period and to test how interannual variation in rainfall influenced treatment effects. Analyses were based on results from a field experiment, TasFACE, in which grassland plots were exposed to a combination of eCO 2 by free air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) and warming by infrared heaters. Using an annual census of established plants and detailed estimates of recruitment, annual mortality of all established plants was calculated. The influence of rainfall amount and timing on the relative impact of treatments on mortality in each year was analysed using multiple regression techniques. Warming and eCO 2 effects had an interactive influence on mortality which varied strongly from year to year and this variation was determined by temporal rainfall patterns. Warming tended to increase density-adjusted mortality and eCO 2 moderated that effect, but to a greater extent in years with fewer dry periods. These results show that eCO 2 reduced the negative effect of warming but this influence varied strongly with rainfall timing. Importantly, indices involving the amount of rainfall were not required to explain interannual variation in mortality or treatment effects on mortality. Therefore, predictions of global warming effects on plant mortality will be reliant not only on other climate change factors, but also on the temporal distribution of rainfall. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Elevated CO2 and warming effects on grassland plant mortality are determined by the timing of rainfall

PubMed Central

Newton, Paul C. D.; Porter, Meagan

2017-01-01

Abstract Background and aims Global warming is expected to increase the mortality rate of established plants in water-limited systems because of its effect on evapotranspiration. The rising CO2 concentration ([CO2]), however, should have the opposite effect because it reduces plant transpiration, delaying the onset of drought. This potential for elevated [CO2] (eCO2) to modify the warming effect on mortality should be related to prevailing moisture conditions. This study aimed to determine the impacts of warming by 2 °C and eCO2 (550 μmol mol−1) on plant mortality in an Australian temperate grassland over a 6-year period and to test how interannual variation in rainfall influenced treatment effects. Methods Analyses were based on results from a field experiment, TasFACE, in which grassland plots were exposed to a combination of eCO2 by free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) and warming by infrared heaters. Using an annual census of established plants and detailed estimates of recruitment, annual mortality of all established plants was calculated. The influence of rainfall amount and timing on the relative impact of treatments on mortality in each year was analysed using multiple regression techniques. Key Results Warming and eCO2 effects had an interactive influence on mortality which varied strongly from year to year and this variation was determined by temporal rainfall patterns. Warming tended to increase density-adjusted mortality and eCO2 moderated that effect, but to a greater extent in years with fewer dry periods. Conclusions These results show that eCO2 reduced the negative effect of warming but this influence varied strongly with rainfall timing. Importantly, indices involving the amount of rainfall were not required to explain interannual variation in mortality or treatment effects on mortality. Therefore, predictions of global warming effects on plant mortality will be reliant not only on other climate change factors, but also on the temporal distribution of rainfall. PMID:28334161

Fall season atypically warm weather event leads to substantial CH4 loss in Arctic ecosystems?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zona, Donatella; Moreaux, Virginie; Liljedahl, Anna; Losacco, Salvatore; Murphy, Patrick; Oechel, Walter

2014-05-01

In the last century (during 1875-2008) high-latitudes are warming at a rate of 1.360C century-1, almost 2 times faster than the Northern Hemisphere trend (Bekryaev et al., 2010). This warming has been more intense outside of the summer season, with anomalies of 1.09, 1.59, 1.730C in the fall, winter, and spring season respectively (Bekryaev et al., 2010). This substantial temperature anomalies have the potential to increase the emission of greenhouse gas (CO2 and CH4) fluxes from arctic tundra ecosystems. In particular, CH4 emissions, which are primarily controlled by temperature (in addition to water table), can steeply increase with warming. Despite the potential relevance of CH4 emissions, very few measurements have been performed outside of the growing season across the entire Arctic, due to logistic constrains. Importantly, no flux measurements achieved a temporal and spatial data coverage sufficient to estimate with confidence an annual CH4 emissions from tundra ecosystem in Alaska, and its sensitivity to warming. Fall 2013 was unusually warm in central and northern Alaska. Following a relatively warm summer with dramatically above-average rainfall, the October mean monthly temperatures was the 4th and top warmest in Barrow (1949-2013) and Ivotuk (1998-2013), respectively. As we just upgraded several eddy covariance towers to measure CO2 and CH4 fluxes year-round, the atypical weather conditions of fall 2013 represented a unique chance for testing the sensitivity of CH4 loss to these atypically warm temperatures. All our sites across a latitudinal gradient (from the northern site, Barrow, to the southern site, Ivotuk), presented substantial CH4 loss in the fall. Importantly, in two of these sites (Barrow, Ivotuk) where the fall weather was substantially warmer than the long term trend, fall CH4 emission represented between 44-63% of the June-November cumulative emission. Surprisingly, in the southernmost site (Ivotuk), when the temperature anomaly was the highest, cumulative fall CH4 emission outpaced even the summer emission. This shows the sensitivity of CH4 loss to abnormal conditions, and the importance of fall periods for the annual CH4 budget in these Arctic ecosystems. Bekryaev, R. V., I. V. Polyakov, and V. A. Alexeev. 2010. Role of polar amplification in long-term surface air temperature variations and modern Arctic warming. Journal of Climate 23(14):3888-3906.

Identification of trends in rainfall, rainy days and 24 h maximum rainfall over subtropical Assam in Northeast India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jhajharia, Deepak; Yadav, Brijesh K.; Maske, Sunil; Chattopadhyay, Surajit; Kar, Anil K.

2012-01-01

Trends in rainfall, rainy days and 24 h maximum rainfall are investigated using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test at twenty-four sites of subtropical Assam located in the northeastern region of India. The trends are statistically confirmed by both the parametric and non-parametric methods and the magnitudes of significant trends are obtained through the linear regression test. In Assam, the average monsoon rainfall (rainy days) during the monsoon months of June to September is about 1606 mm (70), which accounts for about 70% (64%) of the annual rainfall (rainy days). On monthly time scales, sixteen and seventeen sites (twenty-one sites each) witnessed decreasing trends in the total rainfall (rainy days), out of which one and three trends (seven trends each) were found to be statistically significant in June and July, respectively. On the other hand, seventeen sites witnessed increasing trends in rainfall in the month of September, but none were statistically significant. In December (February), eighteen (twenty-two) sites witnessed decreasing (increasing) trends in total rainfall, out of which five (three) trends were statistically significant. For the rainy days during the months of November to January, twenty-two or more sites witnessed decreasing trends in Assam, but for nine (November), twelve (January) and eighteen (December) sites, these trends were statistically significant. These observed changes in rainfall, although most time series are not convincing as they show predominantly no significance, along with the well-reported climatic warming in monsoon and post-monsoon seasons may have implications for human health and water resources management over bio-diversity rich Northeast India.

The Nature of the Medieval Warm Period - Little Ice Ace Transition in an Annually Resolved Speleothem Record from Voli Voli Cave, Fiji

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattey, D.; Stephens, M.; Garcia-Anton, E.; Hoffmann, D.; Dredge, J. A.; Fisher, R. E.; Lowry, D.

2011-12-01

The modern tropical Fiji climate is characterised by seasonal rainfall controlled by the position of the South Pacific Convergance Zone, which is closest to the islands during the wet summer season and weakens when migrating north during the drier winter season. Annual rainfall is strongly modulated on decadal timescales by ENSO with higher rainfall associated with La Nina events with dry spells sometimes leading to drought conditions during El Nino events. A laminated speleothem from Voli Voli cave Fiji spans a 1500 year interval across the transition from the Medieval Warm Period into the Little Ice Age. Fabrics change from calcite with thin clay layers at the base to white laminated calcite and the older record is characterised by elevated δ13C values then a rapid decrease in δ13C, dated at 1200-1300 AD, coinciding with the onset of clean calcite deposition. δ18O values define a simpler trend that monotonically decreases by ≈1% across the transition but high resolution micromilling at 100 micron resolution reveals smooth oscillations in δ18O and a key question is whether these cycles are annual or multi-annual features. To understand relationships between local cave processes and seasonal weather patterns, a program of cave monitoring has been underway since 2009. Voli Voli cave is a descending passage that terminates near a fissured cliff facing the SE trade winds; these are more persistent during the winter and weaken during the summer and cave monitoring shows that high cave air CO2 levels decline near the cave termination as a result of weak incoming ventilation by atmosphere driven by wind strength or chimney ventilation. The high resolution δ13C record shows regular peaks that are correlated with cycles in P and Sr and are interpreted as annual markers driven by rainfall and seasonal ventilation. The smooth δ18O cycles are quasi-decadal features possessing a similar frequency to ENSO with an amplitude of 2-3% equivalent to an amount-effect related change in annual precipitation of ≈50%. Clay layers are associated with micro hiatuses suggesting periods of drought which are much more frequent prior to the AD 1300 transition which is known to have had a widespread impact on societies in the Pacific Basin resulting in increased conflict, shifts in settlements and changes in subsistence strategies. The Voli Voli record provides new evidence of an underlying climatic change and further work will provide insight into long term trends in intradecadal ENSO periodicity and intensity in terms of δ18O cycles that can be related directly to precipitation amount and sea surface temperature, improving understanding of the impact of short-lived climate changes on past and future societies.

On Rainfall Modification by Major Urban Areas. Part 1; Observations from Space-borne Rain Radar on TRMM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Pierce, Harold; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This study represents one of the first published attempts to identify rainfall modification by urban areas using satellite-based rainfall measurements. Data from the first space-based rain-radar, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Precipitation Radar, are employed. Analysis of the data enables identification of rainfall patterns around Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas during the warm season. Results reveal an average increase of -28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage chances are relative to an upwind CONTROL area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area can exceed the mean value in the upwind CONTROL area by 48%-116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. These results are consistent with METROMEX studies of St. Louis almost two decades ago and more recent studies near Atlanta. Future work will investi(yate hypothesized factors causing rainfall modification by urban areas. Additional work is also needed to provide more robust validation of space-based rain estimates near major urban areas. Such research has implications for urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment.

East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: A Historical Perspective of the 1998 Flood over Yangtze River

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weng, H.-Y.; Lau, K.-M.

1999-01-01

One of the main factors that might have caused the disastrous flood in China during 1998 summer is long-term variations that include a trend indicating increasing monsoon rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley. China's 160-station monthly rainfall anomaly for the summers of 1955-98 is analyzed for exploring such long-term variations. Singular value decomposition (SVD) between the summer rainfall and the global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies reveals that the rainfall over Yangtze River Valley is closely related to global and regional SST variabilities at both interannual and interdecadal timescales. SVD1 mode links the above normal rainfall condition in central China to an El Nino-like SSTA distribution, varying on interannual timescale modified by a trend during the period. SVD3 mode links positive rainfall anomaly in Yangtze River Valley to the warm SST anomaly in the subtropical western Pacific, varying on interannual timescales modified by interdecadal timescales. This link tends to be stronger when the Nino3 area becomes colder and the western subtropical Pacific becomes warmer. The 1998 summer is a transition season when the 1997/98 El Nino event was in its decaying phase, and the SST in the Nino3 area emerged below normal anomaly while the subtropical western Pacific SST above normal. Thus, the first and third SVD modes become dominant in 1998 summer, favoring more Asian summer monsoon rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley.

Spatial Interpolation of Historical Seasonal Rainfall Indices over Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, Zulkarnain; Haidir, Ahmad; Saad, Farah Naemah Mohd; Ayob, Afizah; Rahim, Mustaqqim Abdul; Ghazaly, Zuhayr Md.

2018-03-01

The inconsistency in inter-seasonal rainfall due to climate change will cause a different pattern in the rainfall characteristics and distribution. Peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this inconsistency, in which it is resulting extreme events such as flood and water scarcity. This study evaluates the seasonal patterns in rainfall indices such as total amount of rainfall, the frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme intensity in Peninsular Malaysia. 40 years (1975-2015) data records have been interpolated using Inverse Distance Weighted method. The results show that the formation of rainfall characteristics are significance during the Northeast monsoon (NEM), as compared to Southwest monsoon (SWM). Also, there is a high rainfall intensity and frequency related to extreme over eastern coasts of Peninsula during the NEM season.

Entropy of stable seasonal rainfall distribution in Kelantan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad

2017-05-01

Investigating the rainfall variability is vital for any planning and management in many fields related to water resources. Climate change can gives an impact of water availability and may aggravate water scarcity in the future. Two statistics measurements which have been used by many researchers to measure the rainfall variability are variance and coefficient of variation. However, these two measurements are insufficient since rainfall distribution in Malaysia especially in the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia is not symmetric instead it is positively skewed. In this study, the entropy concept is used as a tool to measure the seasonal rainfall variability in Kelantan and ten rainfall stations were selected. In previous studies, entropy of stable rainfall (ESR) and apportionment entropy (AE) were used to describe the rainfall amount variability during years for Australian rainfall data. In this study, the entropy of stable seasonal rainfall (ESSR) is suggested to model rainfall amount variability during northeast monsoon (NEM) and southwest monsoon (SWM) seasons in Kelantan. The ESSR is defined to measure the long-term average seasonal rainfall amount variability within a given year (1960-2012). On the other hand, the AE measures the rainfall amounts variability across the months. The results of ESSR and AE values show that stations in east coastline are more variable as compared to other stations inland for Kelantan rainfall. The contour maps of ESSR for Kelantan rainfall stations are also presented.

Extensive Treatment System For Recycling Water For Flushing Fresh Manure And Recovering Nutrients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morand, Philippe; Robin, Paul; Escande, Aurélie; Picot, Bernadette; Pourcher, Anne-Marie; Jiangping, Qiu; Yinsheng, Li; Hamon, Gwenn; Amblard, Charlotte; Luth, Fievet, Sébastien; Oudart, Didier; Le Quéré, Camille Pain; Cluzeau, Daniel; Landrain, Brigitte

2010-11-01

From preliminary researches on a pilot scale, a complete demonstration plant was built to treat the effluents of a 30 pregnant sow's piggery. It includes a screen, a vermifilter, a macrophyte lagooning, and a complementary water storage pond; the recycled water is used for flushing, and rainfall is collected to compensate for evapotranspiration. After functioning in 2008 and 2009, it was showed that, during the warm season, the whole plant produced an effluent suitable for flushing, where the concentration decrease was over 70% for the phosphorus and potassium, 95% for the COD and nitrogen, 99.8% for endocrine disruptors (estrogenic activity), and 99.99% for pathogenic micro-organisms. During the cold season, the dilution by the rain water and the treatment effect of the constructed wetlands lead to similar results. Nevertheless, for this season, suitable floating macrophytes that will cover the lagoons remain to be settled.

Prognostic Aspects of Sub-seasonal Rainfall Characteristics using the Outputs of General Circulation Model: An Application of Statistical Downscaling and Temporal Disaggregation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A.; Mohanty, U. C.; Ghosh, K.

2015-12-01

Most regions of India experience varied rainfall duration during the southwest monsoon, changes in which exhibit major impact not only agriculture, but also other sectors like hydrology, agriculture, food and fodder storage etc. In addition, changes in sub-seasonal rainfall characteristics highly impact the rice production. As part of the endeavor seasonal climate outlook, as well as information for weather within climate may be helpful for advance planning and risk management in agriculture. The General Circulation Model (GCM) provide an alternative to gather information for weather within climate but variability is very low in comparison to observation. On the other hand, the spatial resolution of GCM predicted rainfall is not found at the observed station/grid point. To tackle the problem, initially a statistical downscaling over 19 station of Odisha state is undertaken using the atmospheric parameters predicted by a GCM (NCEP-CFSv2). For the purpose, an extended domain is taken for analyzing the significant zone for the atmospheric parameters like zonal wind at 850hPa, Sea Surface Temperature (SST), geopotential height. A statistical model using the pattern projection method is further developed based on empirical orthogonal function. The downscaled rainfall is found better in association with station observation in comparison to raw GCM prediction in view of deterministic and probabilistic skill measure. Further, the sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast from the GCMs can be used at different time steps for risk management. Therefore, downscaled seasonal/monthly rainfall is further converted to sub-seasonal/daily time scale using a non-homogeneous markov model. The simulated weather sequences are further compared with the observed sequence in view of categorical rainfall events. The outcomes suggest that the rainfall amount are overestimated for excess rainfall and henceforth larger excess rainfall events can be realized. The skill for prediction of rainfall events corresponding to lower thresholds is found higher. A detail discussion regarding skill of spatial downscale rainfall at observed stations and its further representation of sub-seasonal characteristics (spells, less rainfall, heavy rainfall, and moderate rainfall events) of rainfall for disaggregated outputs will be presented.

Warming increases the sensitivity of seedling growth capacity to rainfall in six temperate deciduous tree species

PubMed Central

Smith, Nicholas G; Hoeppner, Susanne S; Dukes, Jeffrey S

2018-01-01

Abstract Predicting the effects of climate change on tree species and communities is critical for understanding the future state of our forested ecosystems. We used a fully factorial precipitation (three levels; ambient, −50 % ambient, +50 % ambient) by warming (four levels; up to +4 °C) experiment in an old-field ecosystem in the northeastern USA to study the climatic sensitivity of seedlings of six native tree species. We measured whole plant-level responses: survival, total leaf area (TLA), seedling insect herbivory damage, as well as leaf-level responses: specific leaf area (SLA), leaf-level water content (LWC), foliar nitrogen (N) concentration, foliar carbon (C) concentration and C:N ratio of each of these deciduous species in each treatment across a single growing season. We found that canopy warming dramatically increased the sensitivity of plant growth (measured as TLA) to rainfall across all species. Warm, dry conditions consistently reduced TLA and also reduced leaf C:N in four species (Acer rubrum, Betula lenta, Prunus serotina, Ulmus americana), primarily as a result of reduced foliar C, not increased foliar N. Interestingly, these conditions also harmed the other two species in different ways, increasing either mortality (Populus grandidentata) or herbivory (Quercus rubra). Specific leaf area and LWC varied across species, but did not show strong treatment responses. Our results indicate that, in the northeastern USA, dry years in a future warmer environment could have damaging effects on the growth capacity of these early secondary successional forests, through species-specific effects on leaf production (total leaves and leaf C), herbivory and mortality. PMID:29484151

Implications of global warming for regional climate and water resources of tropical islands: Case studies over Sri Lanka and Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mawalagedara, R.; Kumar, D.; Oglesby, R. J.; Ganguly, A. R.

2013-12-01

The IPCC AR4 identifies small islands as particularly vulnerable to climate change. Here we consider the cases of two tropical islands: Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean and Puerto Rico in the Caribbean. The islands share a predominantly tropical climate with diverse topography and hence significant spatial variability of regional climate. Seasonal variability in temperatures is relatively small, but spatial variations can be large owing to topography. Precipitation mechanisms and patterns over the two islands are different however. Sri Lanka receives a majority of the annual rainfall from the summer and winter monsoons, with convective rainfall dominating in the inter-monsoon period. Rainfall generating mechanisms over Puerto Rico can range from orographic lifting, disturbances embedded in Easterly waves and synoptic frontal systems. Here we compare the projected changes in the regional and seasonal means and extremes of temperature and precipitation over the two islands during the middle of this century with the present conditions. Two 5-year regional climate model runs for each region, representing the present (2006-2010) and future (2056-2060) conditions, are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the lateral boundary conditions provided using the output from CCSM4 RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions pathway simulation from the CMIP5 ensemble. The consequences of global warming for water resources and the overall economy are examined. While both economies have substantial contributions from tourism, there are major differences: The agricultural sector is much more important over Sri Lanka compared to Puerto Rico, while the latter exhibits no recent growth in population or in urbanization trends unlike the former. Policy implications for water sustainability and security are discussed, which highlight how despite the differences, certain lessons learned may generalize across the two relatively small tropical islands, which in turn have diverse economic, infrastructural, and societal constraints.

Climate Change and Tropical Total Lightning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Albrecht, R.; Petersen, W.; Buechler, D.; Goodman, S.; Blakeslee, R.; Christian, H.

2009-01-01

While global warming is regarded as a fact by many in the scientific community, its future impact remains a challenge to be determined and measured. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (IPCC, 2007) shows inconclusive answers on global rainfall trends and general agreement on a future drier climate with increased global warming. The relationship between temperature, humidity and convection is not linear and is strongly dependent on regional scale features, such as topography and land cover. Furthermore, the relationship between convective lightning production (thunderstorms) and temperature is even more complicated, being subjected to the cloud dynamics and microphysics. Total lightning (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) monitoring is a relatively new field of observation. Global and tropical total lightning began to be more extensively measured by satellites in the mid 90s. In this scope, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) onboard of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) has been operational for over 11 years. Here we address total lightning trends observed by LIS from 1998 to 2008 in different temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial (large and regional) scales. The observed 11-year trends are then associate to different predicted/hypothesized climate change scenarios.

Evaluation of high resolution global satellite precipitation products using daily raingauge data over the Upper Blue Nile Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahlu, Dejene; Moges, Semu; Anagnostou, Emmanouil; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios; Hailu, Dereje; Mei, Yiwen

2017-04-01

Water resources assessment, planning and management in Africa is often constrained by the lack of reliable spatio-temporal rainfall data. Satellite products are steadily growing and offering useful alternative datasets of rainfall globally. The aim of this paper is to examine the error characteristics of the main available global satellite precipitation products with the view of improving the reliability of wet season (June to September) and small rainy season rainfall datasets over the Upper Blue Nile Basin. The study utilized six satellite derived precipitation datasets at 0.25-deg spatial grid size and daily temporal resolution:1) the near real-time (3B42_RT) and gauge adjusted (3B42_V7) products of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), 2) gauge adjusted and unadjusted Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) products and 3) the gauge adjusted and un-adjusted product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique (CMORPH) over the period of 2000 to 2013.The error analysis utilized statistical techniques using bias ratio (Bias), correlation coefficient (CC) and root-mean-square-error (RMSE). Mean relative error (MRE), CC and RMSE metrics are further examined for six categories of 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90thand 95th percentile rainfall thresholds. The skill of the satellite estimates is evaluated using categorical error metrics of missed rainfall volume fraction (MRV), falsely detected rainfall volume fraction (FRV), probability of detection (POD) and False Alarm Ratio (FAR). Results showed that six satellite based rainfall products underestimated wet season (June to September) gauge precipitation, with the exception of non-adjusted PERSIANN that overestimated the initial part of the rainy season (March to May). During the wet season, adjusted CMORPH has relatively better bias ratio (89 %) followed by 3B42_V7 (88%), adjusted-PERSIANN (81%), and non-adjusted products have relatively lower bias ratio. The results from CC statistic range from 0.34 to 0.43 for the wet season with adjusted products having slightly higher values. The initial rainy season has relatively higher CC than the wet season. Results from the categorical error metrics showed that CMORPH products have higher POD (91%), which are better in avoiding detecting false rainfall events in the wet season. For the initial rainy season PERSIANN (<50%), TMPA and CMORPH products are nearly equivalent (63-67%). On the other hand, FAR is below 0.1% for all products while in the wet season is higher (10-25%). In terms of rainfall volume of missed and false detected rainfall, CMORPH exhibited lower MRV ( 4.5%) than the TMPA and PERSIANN products (11-19%.) in the wet season. MRV for the initial rainy season was 20% for TMPA and CMORPH products and above 30% for PERSIANN products. All products are nearly equivalent in the wet season in terms of FRV (< 0.2%). The magnitude of MRE increases with gauge rainfall threshold categories with 3B42-V7 and adjusted CMORPH having lower magnitude, showing that underestimation of rainfall increases with increasing rainfall magnitude. CC also decreases with gauge rainfall threshold categories with CMORPH products having slightly higher values. Overall, all satellite products underestimated (overestimated) lower (higher) quantiles quantiles. We have observed that among the six satellite rainfall products the adjusted CMORPH has relatively better potential to improve wet season rainfall estimate and 3B42-V7 that initial rainy season in the Upper Blue Nile Basin.

West African warming: Investigating Temperature Trends and their relation between Precipitation Trends over West African Sahel.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LY, M., Jr.

2014-12-01

It is now admitted that the West African region faces a lot of constraints due to the comprehensiveness of the high climate variability and potential climate change. This is mainly due to the lack of a large number of datasets and long-term records as summarized in the in the IPCC reports. This paper aims to provide improved knowledge and evidence on current and future climate conditions, for better manage climate variability over seasons and from year to year and strengthen the capacity to adapt to future climate change. In this regards, we analyse the evolution of some extreme temperature and precipitation indices over a large area of West Africa. Prior results show a general warming trend at individual stations throughout the region during the period from 1960 to 2010, namely negative trends in the number of cool nights, and positive trends in the number of warm days and length of warm spells. Trends in rainfall-related indices are not as uniform as the ones in temperatures, rather they display marked multi-decadal variability, as expected. To refine analyses of temperature variations and their relation to precipitation we investigated on cluster analysis aimed at distinguishing different sub-regions, such as continental and coastal, and relevant seasons, such as wet, dry/cold and dry warm. This will contribute to significantly lower uncertainties by developing better and more tailored temperature and precipitation trends to inform the user communities on climate related risks, as well as enhance their resilience to food insecurity and other climate related disasters.

Trends in rainfall and temperature extremes in Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khomsi, K.; Mahe, G.; Tramblay, Y.; Sinan, M.; Snoussi, M.

2015-02-01

In Morocco, socioeconomic fields are vulnerable to weather extreme events. This work aims to analyze the frequency and the trends of temperature and rainfall extreme events in two contrasted Moroccan regions (the Tensift in the semi-arid South, and the Bouregreg in the sub-humid North), during the second half of the 20th century. This study considers long time series of daily extreme temperatures and rainfall, recorded in the stations of Marrakech and Safi for the Tensift region, and Kasba-Tadla and Rabat-Sale for the Bouregreg region, data from four other stations (Tanger, Fes, Agadir and Ouarzazate) from outside the regions were added. Extremes are defined by using as thresholds the 1st, 5th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Results show upward trends in maximum and minimum temperatures of both regions and no generalized trends in rainfall amounts. Changes in cold events are larger than those for warm events, and the number of very cold events decrease significantly in the whole studied area. The southern region is the most affected with the changes of the temperature regime. Most of the trends found in rainfall heavy events are positive with weak magnitudes even though no statistically significant generalized trends could be identified during both seasons.

A simple lightning assimilation technique for improving ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Convective rainfall is often a large source of error in retrospective modeling applications. In particular, positive rainfall biases commonly exist during summer months due to overactive convective parameterizations. In this study, lightning assimilation was applied in the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective scheme to improve retrospective simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The assimilation method has a straightforward approach: force KF deep convection where lightning is observed and, optionally, suppress deep convection where lightning is absent. WRF simulations were made with and without lightning assimilation over the continental United States for July 2012, July 2013, and January 2013. The simulations were evaluated against NCEP stage-IV precipitation data and MADIS near-surface meteorological observations. In general, the use of lightning assimilation considerably improves the simulation of summertime rainfall. For example, the July 2012 monthly averaged bias of 6 h accumulated rainfall is reduced from 0.54 to 0.07 mm and the spatial correlation is increased from 0.21 to 0.43 when lightning assimilation is used. Statistical measures of near-surface meteorological variables also are improved. Consistent improvements also are seen for the July 2013 case. These results suggest that this lightning assimilation technique has the potential to substantially improve simulation of warm-season rainfall in retrospective WRF applications. The

A Simple Lightning Assimilation Technique For Improving ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Convective rainfall is often a large source of error in retrospective modeling applications. In particular, positive rainfall biases commonly exist during summer months due to overactive convective parameterizations. In this study, lightning assimilation was applied in the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective scheme to improve retrospective simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The assimilation method has a straightforward approach: Force KF deep convection where lightning is observed and, optionally, suppress deep convection where lightning is absent. WRF simulations were made with and without lightning assimilation over the continental United States for July 2012, July 2013, and January 2013. The simulations were evaluated against NCEP stage-IV precipitation data and MADIS near-surface meteorological observations. In general, the use of lightning assimilation considerably improves the simulation of summertime rainfall. For example, the July 2012 monthly-averaged bias of 6-h accumulated rainfall is reduced from 0.54 mm to 0.07 mm and the spatial correlation is increased from 0.21 to 0.43 when lightning assimilation is used. Statistical measures of near-surface meteorological variables also are improved. Consistent improvements also are seen for the July 2013 case. These results suggest that this lightning assimilation technique has the potential to substantially improve simulation of warm-season rainfall in retrospective WRF appli

Meteorological Conditions for Functioning Automobile Transport in Moscow Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiryaeva, Alexandra

2017-04-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate weather and climate conditions of functioning automobile transport in Moscow region. For this, statistics on the daily number of accidents in the City of Moscow in 2013-2014 were studied and compared with the weather conditions. Various weather phenomena and meteorological parameters that affect the increase and decrease in the number of accidents in warm and cold seasons were identified; the extent of this influence was assessed. Moreover, an analysis of the distribution and change of the frequency of occurrence of these phenomena and meteorological parameters in 1961-2010 in Moscow region was conducted. In the cold season, there are much more weather events influencing the growth in the number of accidents than in the warm season. Fallout of more than 2 cm of snow per date, the reduction in meteorological visibility, drizzle and snow storms lead to an increase of accident rate by 5-15%. In the warm season, when thunderstorms and heavy rainfall there is a decrease in accidents; increase in the number of accidents happens in hot weather (maximum air temperatures over +30 °C). In the period 1991-2010 compared to 1961-1990 in the Moscow oblast the sustained cold period and amount of precipitation under negative air temperature has reduced; a decrease in the number of days with reduced visibility range and the offset of the date of the fallout of the first snow aside winter months is observed, which is favorable for automobile transport. At the same time, there is an increase in the number of days with transitions of air temperature through 0 °C, and the number of hot days, which negatively affects the functioning automobile transport.

The Relationship Between Anomalous Presummer Extreme Rainfall Over South China and Synoptic Disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ling; Luo, Yali; Zhang, Da-Lin

2018-04-01

A spectral analysis of daily rainfall data has been performed to investigate extreme rainfall events in south China during the presummer rainy seasons between 1998 and 2015 (excluding 1999, 2006, 2011, and 2014). The results reveal a dominant frequency mode at the synoptic scale with pronounced positive rainfall anomalies. By analyzing the synoptic-scale bandpass-filtered anomalous circulations, 24 extreme rainfall episodes (defined as those with a daily rainfall amount in the top 5%) are categorized into "cyclone" (15) and "trough" (8) types, with the remaining events as an "anticyclone" type, according to the primary anomalous weather system contributing to each extreme rainfall episode. The 15 cyclone-type episodes are further separated into (11) lower- and (4) upper-tropospheric migratory anomalies. An analysis of their anomalous fields shows that both types could be traced back to the generation of cyclonic anomalies downstream of the Tibetan Plateau, except for two episodes of lower-tropospheric migratory anomalies originating over the South China Sea. However, a lower-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly appears during all phases in the former type, but only in the wettest phase in the latter type, with its peak disturbance occurring immediately beneath an upper-level warm anomaly. The production of extreme rainfall in the trough-type episodes is closely related to a deep trough anomaly extending from an intense cyclonic anomaly over north China, which in turn could be traced back to a midlatitude Rossby wave train passing by the Tibetan Plateau. The results have important implications for understanding the origin, structure, and evolution of synoptic disturbances associated with the presummer extreme rainfall in south China.

Assessment of long-term monthly and seasonal trends of warm (cold), wet (dry) spells in Kansas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dokoohaki, H.; Anandhi, A.

2013-12-01

A few recent studies have focused on trends in rainfall, temperature, and frost indicators at different temporal scales using centennial weather station data in Kansas; our study supplements this work by assessing the changes in spell indicators in Kansas. These indicators provide the duration between temperature-based (warm and cold) and precipitation-based (wet and dry) spells. For wet (dry) spell calculations, a wet day is defined as a day with precipitation ≥1 mm, and a dry day is defined as one with precipitation ≤1 mm. For warm (cold) spell calculations, a warm day is defined as a day with maximum temperature >90th percentile of daily maximum temperature, and a cold day is defined as a day with minimum temperature <10th percentile of daily minimum temperature. The percentiles are calculated for 1971-2000, and four spell indicators are calculated: Average Wet Spell Length (AWSL), Dry Spell Length (ADSL), Average Warm Spell Days (AWSD) and Average Cold Spell Days (ACSD) are calculated. Data were provided from 23 centennial weather stations across Kansas, and all calculations were done for four time periods (through 1919, 1920-1949, 1950-1979, and 1980-2009). The definitions and software provided by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were adapted for application to Kansas. The long- and short-term trends in these indices were analyzed at monthly and seasonal timescales. Monthly results indicate that ADSL is decreasing and AWSL is increasing throughout the state. AWSD and ACSD both showed an overall decreasing trend, but AWSD trends were variable during the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Results of seasonal analysis revealed that the fall season recorded the greatest increasing trend for ACSD and the greatest decreasing trend for AWSD across the whole state and during all time periods. Similarly, the greatest increasing and decreasing trends occurred in winter for AWSL and ADSL, respectively. These variations can be important indicators of climatic change that may not be represented in mean conditions. Detailed geographical and temporal variations of the spell indices also can be beneficial for updating management decisions and providing adaptation recommendations for local and regional agricultural production.

The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.

2011-01-01

Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Interannual and intra-annual variability of rainfall in Haiti (1905-2005)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moron, Vincent; Frelat, Romain; Jean-Jeune, Pierre Karly; Gaucherel, Cédric

2015-08-01

The interannual variability of annual and monthly rainfall in Haiti is examined from a database of 78 rain gauges in 1905-2005. The spatial coherence of annual rainfall is rather low, which is partly due to Haiti's rugged landscape, complex shoreline, and surrounding warm waters (mean sea surface temperatures >27 °C from May to December). The interannual variation of monthly rainfall is mostly shaped by the intensity of the low-level winds across the Caribbean Sea, leading to a drier- (or wetter-) than-average rainy season associated with easterly (or westerly) anomalies, increasing (or decreasing) winds. The varying speed of low-level easterlies across the Caribbean basin may reflect at least four different processes during the year: (1) an anomalous trough/ridge over the western edge of the Azores high from December to February, peaking in January; (2) a zonal pressure gradient between Eastern Pacific and the tropical Northern Atlantic from May/June to September, with a peak in August (i.e. lower-than-average rainfall in Haiti is associated with positive sea level pressure anomalies over the tropical North Atlantic and negative sea level pressure anomalies over the Eastern Pacific); (3) a local ocean-atmosphere coupling between the speed of the Caribbean Low Level Jet and the meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the Caribbean basin (i.e. colder-than-average SST in the southern Caribbean sea is associated with increased easterlies and below-average rainfall in Haiti). This coupling is triggered when the warmest Caribbean waters move northward toward the Gulf of Mexico; (4) in October/November, a drier- (or wetter-) than-usual rainy season is related to an almost closed anticyclonic (or cyclonic) anomaly located ENE of Haiti on the SW edge of the Azores high. This suggests a main control of the interannual variations of rainfall by intensity, track and/or recurrence of tropical depressions traveling northeast of Haiti. During this period, the teleconnection of Haitian rainfall with synchronous Atlantic and Eastern Pacific SST is at a minimum.

Analysis of weather changes in the region of Surabaya in 2015 and 2016 using water vapor data from GPS and Terra MODIS satellite image

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahyadi, M. N.; Audah, S.; Mutia, N.; Aliyan, S. A.

2017-07-01

Sea surface temperature conditions in the territorial waters of Indonesia can be used as one indicator of a lot or least the content of water vapor in the atmosphere. It is closely related to the process of cloud formation in the region of Indonesia. Surabaya is the capital of the Indonesia's second largest potential for the occurrence of global warming due to climate change around the region. Global warming has the consequence of occurrence of climate variability, with marked by changes in temperature, and rainfall, as well as runoff of water. Monitoring the space-based Global Positioning System (GPS) and remote sensing satellite data such as Terra MODIS can be used in the field of meteorology. That is to measured the level of water vapor globally, with the approach of the amount of precipitable water vapor (PWV) in the atmosphere layer. It can be seen humidity conditions and the potential occurrence of rainfall in an area. The PWV value obtained from GPS processing had range 25.13 mm - 32.87 mm; average value is 27.38 mm and standard deviation is 2.018 mm. Based on the diurnal variation of the PWV GPS indicates that the climatic conditions in the area of Surabaya in 2015 showed the dry season, this is because the average values of PWV pretty low that occurred in July-September. But in September 2015 the PWV value occurrence an increase in water vapor and can be estimated that in the next month will be approaching rainy season.

Small mammal use of native warm-season and non-native cool-season grass forage fields

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryan L Klimstra,; Christopher E Moorman,; Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Craig A Harper,

2015-01-01

Recent emphasis has been put on establishing native warm-season grasses for forage production because it is thought native warm-season grasses provide higher quality wildlife habitat than do non-native cool-season grasses. However, it is not clear whether native warm-season grass fields provide better resources for small mammals than currently are available in non-native cool-season grass forage production fields. We developed a hierarchical spatially explicit capture-recapture model to compare abundance of hispid cotton rats (Sigmodon hispidus), white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus), and house mice (Mus musculus) among 4 hayed non-native cool-season grass fields, 4 hayed native warm-season grass fields, and 4 native warm-season grass-forb ("wildlife") fields managed for wildlife during 2 summer trapping periods in 2009 and 2010 of the western piedmont of North Carolina, USA. Cotton rat abundance estimates were greater in wildlife fields than in native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields and greater in native warm-season grass fields than in non-native cool-season grass fields. Abundances of white-footed mouse and house mouse populations were lower in wildlife fields than in native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields, but the abundances were not different between the native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields. Lack of cover following haying in non-native cool-season grass and native warm-season grass fields likely was the key factor limiting small mammal abundance, especially cotton rats, in forage fields. Retention of vegetation structure in managed forage production systems, either by alternately resting cool-season and warm-season grass forage fields or by leaving unharvested field borders, should provide refugia for small mammals during haying events.

Effects of shifting seasonal rainfall patterns on net primary productivity and carbon storage in tropical seasonally dry ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohr, T.; Manzoni, S.; Feng, X.; Menezes, R.; Porporato, A. M.

2013-12-01

Although seasonally dry ecosystems (SDEs), identified by prolonged drought followed by a short, but intense, rainy season, cover large regions of the tropics, their biogeochemical response to seasonal rainfall and soil carbon (C) sequestration potential are not well characterized. Both productivity and soil respiration are positively affected by seasonal soil moisture availability, creating a delicate balance between C deposition through litterfall and C losses through heterotrophic respiration. As climate change projections for the tropics predict decreased annual rainfall and increased dry season length, it is critical to understand how variations in seasonal rainfall distributions control this balance. To address this question, we develop a minimal model linking the seasonal behavior of the ensemble soil moisture, plant productivity, the related soil C inputs through litterfall, and soil C dynamics. The model is parameterized for a case study from a drought-deciduous caatinga ecosystem in northeastern Brazil. Results indicate that when altering the seasonal rainfall patterns for a fixed annual rainfall, both plant productivity and soil C sequestration potential are largely, and nonlinearly, dependent on wet season duration. Moreover, total annual rainfall plays a dominant role in describing this relationship, leading at times to the emergence of distinct optima in both primary production and C sequestration. Examining these results in the context of climate-driven changes to wet season duration and mean annual precipitation indicate that the initial hydroclimatic regime of a particular ecosystem is an important factor to predict both the magnitude and direction of the effects of shifting seasonal distributions on productivity and C storage. Although highly productive ecosystems will likely experience declining C storage with predicted climate shifts, those currently operating well below peak production can potentially see improved C stocks with the onset of declining rainfall due to reduced soil respiration. a) Annual average net primary productivity and b) the temporally averaged ensemble soil carbon concentration <(C_yr )> are plotted against the length of the wet season T_W, for six annual rainfall rates (m yr-1).

Amplification of ENSO Effects on Indian Summer Monsoon by Absorbing Aerosols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Maeng-Ki; Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Sang, Jeong; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Woo-Seop

2015-01-01

In this study, we present observational evidence, based on satellite aerosol measurements and MERRA reanalysis data for the period 1979-2011, indicating that absorbing aerosols can have strong influence on seasonal-to-interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, including amplification of ENSO effects. We find a significant correlation between ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and aerosol loading in April-May, with La Nina (El Nino) conditions favoring increased (decreased) aerosol accumulation over northern India, with maximum aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the Arabian Sea and Northwestern India, indicative of strong concentration of dust aerosols transported from West Asia and Middle East deserts. Composite analyses based on a normalized aerosol index (NAI) show that high concentration of aerosol over northern India in April-May is associated with increased moisture transport, enhanced dynamically induced warming of the upper troposphere over the Tibetan Plateau, and enhanced rainfall over northern India and the Himalayan foothills during May-June, followed by a subsequent suppressed monsoon rainfall over all India,consistent with the Elevated Heat Pump (EHP) hypothesis (Lau et al. 2006). Further analyses from sub-sampling of ENSO years, with normal (less than 1 sigma), and abnormal (greater than 1 sigma)) NAI over northern India respectively show that the EHP may lead to an amplification of the Indian summer monsoon response to ENSO forcing, particularly with respect to the increased rainfall over the Himalayan foothills, and the warming of the upper troposphere over the Tibetan Plateau. Our results suggest that absorbing aerosol, particular desert dusts can strongly modulate ENSO influence, and possibly play important roles as a feedback agent in climate change in Asian monsoon regions.

Global intensification in observed short-duration rainfall extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, H. J.; Lewis, E.; Guerreiro, S.; Blenkinsop, S.; Barbero, R.; Westra, S.; Lenderink, G.; Li, X.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall events are expected to intensify with a warming climate and this is currently driving extensive research. While daily rainfall extremes are widely thought to have increased globally in recent decades, changes in rainfall extremes on shorter timescales, often associated with flash flooding, have not been documented at global scale due to surface observational limitations and the lack of a global sub-daily rainfall database. The access to and use of such data remains a challenge. For the first time, we have synthesized across multiple data sources providing gauge-based sub-daily rainfall observations across the globe over the last 6 decades. This forms part of the INTENSE project (part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)'s Grand Challenge on 'Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes' and the Global Water and Energy Exchanges (GEWEX) Hydroclimate Project cross-cut on sub-daily rainfall). A set of global hydroclimatic indices have been produced based upon stakeholder recommendations including indices that describe maximum rainfall totals and timing, the intensity, duration and frequency of storms, frequency of storms above specific thresholds and information about the diurnal cycle. This will provide a unique global data resource on sub-daily precipitation whose derived indices will be freely available to the wider scientific community. Because of the physical connection between global warming and the moisture budget, we also sought to infer long-term changes in sub-daily rainfall extremes contingent on global mean temperature. Whereas the potential influence of global warming is uncertain at regional scales, where natural variability dominates, aggregating surface stations across parts of the world may increase the global warming-induced signal. Changes in terms of annual maximum rainfall across various resolutions ranging from 1-h to 24-h are presented and discussed.

What aspects of future rainfall changes matter for crop yields in West Africa?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Kaiyu; Sultan, Benjamin; Biasutti, Michela; Baron, Christian; Lobell, David B.

2015-10-01

How rainfall arrives, in terms of its frequency, intensity, the timing and duration of rainy season, may have a large influence on rainfed agriculture. However, a thorough assessment of these effects is largely missing. This study combines a new synthetic rainfall model and two independently validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to assess sorghum yield response to possible shifts in seasonal rainfall characteristics in West Africa. We find that shifts in total rainfall amount primarily drive the rainfall-related crop yield change, with less relevance to intraseasonal rainfall features. However, dry regions (total annual rainfall below 500 mm/yr) have a high sensitivity to rainfall frequency and intensity, and more intense rainfall events have greater benefits for crop yield than more frequent rainfall. Delayed monsoon onset may negatively impact yields. Our study implies that future changes in seasonal rainfall characteristics should be considered in designing specific crop adaptations in West Africa.

Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau (China) during 1960-2013 under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Wenyi; Mu, Xingmin; Song, Xiaoyan; Wu, Dan; Cheng, Aifang; Qiu, Bing

2016-02-01

In recent decades, extreme climatic events have been a major issue worldwide. Regional assessments on various climates and geographic regions are needed for understanding uncertainties in extreme events' responses to global warming. The objective of this study was to assess the annual and decadal trends in 12 extreme temperature and 10 extreme precipitation indices in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration over the Loess Plateau during 1960-2013. The results indicated that the regionally averaged trends in temperature extremes were consistent with global warming. The occurrence of warm extremes, including summer days (SU), tropical nights (TR), warm days (TX90), and nights (TN90) and a warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), increased by 2.76 (P < 0.01), 1.24 (P < 0.01), 2.60 (P = 0.0003), 3.41 (P < 0.01), and 0.68 (P = 0.0041) days/decade during the period of 1960-2013, particularly, sharp increases in these indices occurred in 1985-2000. Over the same period, the occurrence of cold extremes, including frost days (FD), ice days (ID), cold days (TX10) and nights (TN10), and a cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) exhibited decreases of - 3.22 (P < 0.01), - 2.21 (P = 0.0028), - 2.71 (P = 0.0028), - 4.31 (P < 0.01), and - 0.69 (P = 0.0951) days/decade, respectively. Moreover, extreme warm events in most regions tended to increase while cold indices tended to decrease in the Loess Plateau, but the trend magnitudes of cold extremes were greater than those of warm extremes. The growing season (GSL) in the Loess Plateau was lengthened at a rate of 3.16 days/decade (P < 0.01). Diurnal temperature range (DTR) declined at a rate of - 0.06 °C /decade (P = 0.0931). Regarding the precipitation indices, the annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) showed no obvious trends (P = 0.7828). The regionally averaged daily rainfall intensity (SDII) exhibited significant decreases (- 0.14 mm/day/decade, P = 0.0158), whereas consecutive dry days (CDD) significantly increased (1.96 days/decade, P = 0.0001) during 1960-2013. Most of stations with significant changes in SDII and CDD occurred in central and southeastern Loess Plateau. However, the changes in days of erosive rainfall, heavy rain, rainstorm, maximum 5-day precipitation, and very-wet-day and extremely wet-day precipitation were not significant. Large-scale atmospheric circulation indices, such as the Western Pacific Subtropical High Intensity Index (WPSHII) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), strongly influences warm/cold extremes and contributes significantly to climate changes in the Loess Plateau. The enhanced geopotential height over the Eurasian continent and increase in water vapor divergence in the rainy season have contributed to the changes of the rapid warming and consecutive drying in the Loess Plateau.

Towards combining GPM and MFG observations to monitor near real time heavy precipitation at fine scale over India and nearby oceanic regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Anoop; Rafiq, Mohammd

2017-12-01

This is the first attempt to merge highly accurate precipitation estimates from Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) with gap free satellite observations from Meteosat to develop a regional rainfall monitoring algorithm to estimate heavy rainfall over India and nearby oceanic regions. Rainfall signature is derived from Meteosat observations and is co-located against rainfall from GPM to establish a relationship between rainfall and signature for various rainy seasons. This relationship can be used to monitor rainfall over India and nearby oceanic regions. Performance of this technique was tested by applying it to monitor heavy precipitation over India. It is reported that our algorithm is able to detect heavy rainfall. It is also reported that present algorithm overestimates rainfall areal spread as compared to rain gauge based rainfall product. This deficiency may arise from various factors including uncertainty caused by use of different sensors from different platforms (difference in viewing geometry from MFG and GPM), poor relationship between warm rain (light rain) and IR brightness temperature, and weak characterization of orographic rain from IR signature. We validated hourly rainfall estimated from the present approach with independent observations from GPM. We also validated daily rainfall from this approach with rain gauge based product from India Meteorological Department (IMD). Present technique shows a Correlation Coefficient (CC) of 0.76, a bias of -2.72 mm, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 10.82 mm, Probability of Detection (POD) of 0.74, False Alarm Ratio (FAR) of 0.34 and a Skill score of 0.36 with daily rainfall from rain gauge based product of IMD at 0.25° resolution. However, FAR reduces to 0.24 for heavy rainfall events. Validation results with rain gauge observations reveal that present technique outperforms available satellite based rainfall estimates for monitoring heavy rainfall over Indian region.

Using observed warming to identify hazards to Mozambique maize production

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Harrison, Laura; Eilerts, Gary

2011-01-01

New Perspectives on Crop Yield Constraints because of Climate Change. Climate change impact assessments usually focus on changes to precipitation because most global food production is from rainfed cropping systems; however, other aspects of climate change may affect crop growth and potential yields.A recent (2011) study by the University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB) Climate Hazards Group, determined that climate change may be affecting Mozambique's primary food crop in a usually overlooked, but potentially significant way (Harrison and others, 2011). The study focused on the direct relation between maize crop development and growing season temperature. It determined that warming during the past three decades in Mozambique may be causing more frequent crop stress and yield reductions in that country's maize crop, independent of any changes occurring in rainfall. This report summarizes the findings and conclusions of that study.

Characterizing land surface phenology and responses to rainfall in the Sahara desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Dong; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Yu, Yunyue; Guo, Wei; Hanan, Niall P.

2016-08-01

Land surface phenology (LSP) in the Sahara desert is poorly understood due to the difficulty in detecting subtle variations in vegetation greenness. This study examined the spatial and temporal patterns of LSP and its responses to rainfall seasonality in the Sahara desert. We first generated daily two-band enhanced vegetation index (EVI2) from half-hourly observations acquired by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the Meteosat Second Generation series of geostationary satellites from 2006 to 2012. The EVI2 time series was used to retrieve LSP based on the Hybrid Piecewise Logistic Model. We further investigated the associations of spatial and temporal patterns in LSP with those in rainfall seasonality derived from the daily rainfall time series of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission. Results show that the spatial shifts in the start of the vegetation growing season generally follow the rainy season onset that is controlled by the summer rainfall regime in the southern Sahara desert. In contrast, the end of the growing season significantly lags the end of the rainy season without any significant dependence. Vegetation growing season can unfold during the dry seasons after onset is triggered during rainy seasons. Vegetation growing season can be as long as 300 days or more in some areas and years. However, the EVI2 amplitude and accumulation across the Sahara region was very low indicating sparse vegetation as expected in desert regions. EVI2 amplitude and accumulated EVI2 strongly depended on rainfall received during the growing season and the preceding dormancy period.

[Canopy rainfall storage capacity of tropical seasonal rainforest and rubber plantation in Xishuangbanna].

PubMed

Wang, Xin; Zhang, Yiping

2006-10-01

Based on the 2003-2004 laboratory and field observation data, and with scaling-up method, this paper studied the canopy rainfall storage capacity of tropical seasonal rainforest and rubber plantation in Xishuangbanna. The results showed that the canopy rainfall storage capacity was 0.45-0.79 mm for tropical seasonal rainforest and 0.48-0.71 mm for rubber plantation, and that of the branch and bark accounted for >50 % of the total. For these two forests, the canopy rainfall storage capacity was much higher in foggy season (from November to February) and dry-hot season (from March to April) than in rainy season (from May to October), and the duration needed to reach water saturation was about 5 min for leaf, 2-3 h for bark, and 2. 5-4 h for branch. During the processes of wetting and air-drying, leaf was easier while branch and bark were somewhat difficult to hold water and then be air-dried, suggesting that leaf played an important role in intercepting rainfall in short-duration rainfall events, while branch and bark could work much better in doing this in long-duration or high-intensity rainfall events. Compared with rubber plantation, tropical seasonal rainforest had a stronger rainfall-storage capacity due to its multi-layer structure of canopy and excellent water-holding performance.

Climate change effects on landslides in southern B.C.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakob, M.

2009-04-01

Two mechanisms that contribute to the temporal occurrence of landslides in coastal British Columbia are ante¬cedent rainfall and short-term intense rainfall. These two quantities can be extracted from the precipitation regimes simulated by climate models. This makes such models an attractive tool for use in the investigation of the effect of global warming on landslide fre¬quencies. In order to provide some measure of the reliability of models used to address the landslide question, the present-day simulation of the antecedent precipitation and short- term rainfall using the daily data from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis model (CGCM) is compared to observations along the south coast of British Colum¬bia. This evaluation showed that the model was reasonably successful in simulating sta¬tistics of the antecedent rainfall but was less successful in simulating the short-term rainfall. The monthly mean precipitation data from an ensemble of 19 of the world's global climate models were available to study potential changes in landslide frequencies with global warming. Most of the models were used to produce simulations with three scenar¬ios with different levels of prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations during the twenty-first century. The changes in the antecedent precipitation were computed from the resulting monthly and seasonal means. In order to deal with models' suspected difficulties in sim¬ulating the short-term precipitation and lack of daily data, a statistical procedure was used to relate the short-term precipitation to the monthly means. The qualitative model results agree reasonably well, and when averaged over all models and the three scenarios, the change in the antecedent precipitation is predicted to be about 10% and the change in the short-term precipitation about 6%. Because the antecedent precipitation and the short-term precipitation contribute to the occurrence of landslides, the results of this study support the prediction of increased landslide frequency along the British Columbia south coast during the twenty-first century.

Rainfall as primary driver of discharge and solute export from rock glaciers: The Col d'Olen Rock Glacier in the NW Italian Alps.

PubMed

Colombo, Nicola; Gruber, Stephan; Martin, Maria; Malandrino, Mery; Magnani, Andrea; Godone, Danilo; Freppaz, Michele; Fratianni, Simona; Salerno, Franco

2018-10-15

Three hypotheses exist to explain how meteorological variables drive the amount and concentration of solute-enriched water from rock glaciers: (1) Warm periods cause increased subsurface ice melt, which releases solutes; (2) rain periods and the melt of long-lasting snow enhance dilution of rock-glacier outflows; and (3) percolation of rain through rock glaciers facilitates the export of solutes, causing an opposite effect as that described in hypothesis (2). This lack of detailed understanding likely exists because suitable studies of meteorological variables, hydrologic processes and chemical characteristics of water bodies downstream from rock glaciers are unavailable. In this study, a rock-glacier pond in the North-Western Italian Alps was studied on a weekly basis for the ice-free seasons 2014 and 2015 by observing the meteorological variables (air temperature, snowmelt, rainfall) assumed to drive the export of solute-enriched waters from the rock glacier and the hydrochemical response of the pond (water temperature as a proxy of rock-glacier discharge, stable water isotopes, major ions and selected trace elements). An intra-seasonal pattern of increasing solute export associated with higher rock-glacier discharge was found. Specifically, rainfall, after the winter snowpack depletion and prolonged periods of atmospheric temperature above 0 °C, was found to be the primary driver of solute export from the rock glacier during the ice-free season. This occurs likely through the flushing of isotopically- and geochemically-enriched icemelt, causing concomitant increases in the rock-glacier discharge and the solute export (SO 4 2- , Mg 2+ , Ca 2+ , Ni, Mn, Co). Moreover, flushing of microbially-active sediments can cause increases in NO 3 - export. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulated hydroclimatic impacts of projected Brazilian sugarcane expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgescu, M.; Lobell, D. B.; Field, C. B.; Mahalov, A.

2013-03-01

Sugarcane area is currently expanding in Brazil, largely in response to domestic and international demand for sugar-based ethanol. To investigate the potential hydroclimatic impacts of future expansion, a regional climate model is used to simulate 5 years of a scenario in which cerrado and cropland areas (~1.1E6 km2) within south-central Brazil are converted to sugarcane. Results indicate a cooling of up to ~1.0°C during the peak of the growing season, mainly as a result of increased albedo of sugarcane relative to the previous landscape. After harvest, warming of similar magnitude occurs from a significant decline in evapotranspiration and a repartitioning toward greater sensible heating. Overall, annual temperature changes from large-scale conversion are expected to be small because of offsetting reductions in net radiation absorption and evapotranspiration. The decline in net water flux from land to the atmosphere implies a reduction in regional precipitation, which is consistent with progressively decreasing simulated average rainfall for the study period, upon conversion to sugarcane. However, rainfall changes were not robust across three ensemble members. The results suggest that sugarcane expansion will not drastically alter the regional energy or water balance, but could result in important local and seasonal effects.

Mapping the rainfall distribution for irrigation planning in dry season at pineapple plantation, Lampung Province, Indonesia (Study case at Great Giant Pineapple Co. Ltd.)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahyono, P.; Astuti, N. K.; Purwito; Rahmat, A.

2018-03-01

One of the problems caused by climate change is unpredictable of the dry season. Understanding when the dry season will start is very important to planning the irrigation schedule especially on large plantation. Data of rainfall for 30 years in Lampung, especially in Pineapple Plantation show that dry month occurs from June to October. If in two decadals (ten days period) rainfall less than 100 mm then it is predicted that next decadal will be dry season. Great Giant Pineapple Co. Ltd. has 32,000 hectares plantation area and located in three regencies at Lampung Province, Indonesia with varies rainfall between regions within a plantation. Therefore, monitoring the rainfall distribution by using ombrometer installed at 10 representative location points can be used to determine irrigation period at the beginning of dry season. Mapping method using the server program and data source is from 10 monitoring rainfall stations installed at the observed points. Preparation of rainfall distribution mapping is important to know the beginning of the dry season and thus planning the irrigation. The results show that 2nd decadal of April is indicated as the starting time of dry season, which is similar with Indonesian government for climate agency’s result.

Maintenance and Variations of Atmospheric Subsidence in the Southeast Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Lee, S.; Mechoso, C. R.; Enfield, D. B.

2010-12-01

The southeastern tropical Pacific (SEP) is characterized by large-scale subsidence, extensive and persistent stratocumulus cloud, and cold SST. The subtropical high in the South Pacific and subsidence over the SEP during the austral summer are related to the monsoonal heating over South America. Previous studies demonstrate that during the austral summer, Rossby wave response to heating associated with the South American monsoon system interacting with the midlatitude westerlies produces descending motion to the west of the South American heating, i.e., over the SEP. The Sverdrup balance demands the existence of equatorward flow beneath the region of descent, closing off the South Pacific subtropical anticyclone on its eastern flank. During seasons other than the austral summer, when convective activity over South America is weaker, other processes must be responsible for maintaining and varying the subsidence over the SEP. This paper shows that the Atlantic warm pool (AWP) is responsible for the subsidence in the SEP during the austral winter and spring. The AWP is a large body of warm water comprising the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the western tropical North Atlantic. AWP variability occurs on seasonal, interannual, and multidecadal timescales. The AWP reaches its maximum size in the boreal late summer and early fall, with large AWPs being almost three times larger than small ones. The warm pool alternates with South America as the seasonal heating source for the Hadley circulation in the Western Hemisphere. During the boreal summer and fall, a strong Hadley circulation emanates from the AWP and forks into the subsidence region of the SEP. The anomalous warm pool index is positively correlated with rainfall anomalies over the SEP where the drizzle under the stratus cloud deck appears. Large (small) warm pools strengthen (weaken) the summer Hadley circulation that emanates from the region of the warm pool into the SEP. This will change the subsidence over the SEP and thus the stratus cloud and drizzle. Atmospheric GCM and simple models are further used to demonstrate the remote and inter-hemispheric response of the AWP to the SEP; that is, the AWP contributes to sinking over the SEP and hence the stratus cloud in the region.

Intra-Seasonal Rainfall Variations and Linkage with Kharif Crop Production: An Attempt to Evaluate Predictability of Sub-Seasonal Rainfall Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Ankita; Ghosh, Kripan; Mohanty, U. C.

2018-03-01

The sub-seasonal variation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall highly impacts Kharif crop production in comparison with seasonal total rainfall. The rainfall frequency and intensity corresponding to various rainfall events are found to be highly related to crop production and therefore, the predictability of such events are considered to be diagnosed. Daily rainfall predictions are made available by one of the coupled dynamical model National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System (NCEPCFS). A large error in the simulation of daily rainfall sequence influences to take up a bias correction and for that reason, two approaches are used. The bias-corrected GCM is able to capture the inter-annual variability in rainfall events. Maximum prediction skill of frequency of less rainfall (LR) event is observed during the month of September and a similar result is also noticed for moderate rainfall event with maximum skill over the central parts of the country. On the other hand, the impact of rainfall weekly rainfall intensity is evaluated against the Kharif rice production. It is found that weekly rainfall intensity during July is having a significant impact on Kharif rice production, but the corresponding skill was found very low in GCM. The GCM are able to simulate the less and moderate rainfall frequency with significant skill.

Widespread climate change in the Himalayas and associated changes in local ecosystems.

PubMed

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Gautam, Shiva; Bawa, Kamaljit S

2012-01-01

Climate change in the Himalayas, a biodiversity hotspot, home of many sacred landscapes, and the source of eight largest rivers of Asia, is likely to impact the well-being of ~20% of humanity. However, despite the extraordinary environmental, cultural, and socio-economic importance of the Himalayas, and despite their rapidly increasing ecological degradation, not much is known about actual changes in the two most critical climatic variables: temperature and rainfall. Nor do we know how changes in these parameters might impact the ecosystems including vegetation phenology. By analyzing temperature and rainfall data, and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) values from remotely sensed imagery, we report significant changes in temperature, rainfall, and vegetation phenology across the Himalayas between 1982 and 2006. The average annual mean temperature during the 25 year period has increased by 1.5 °C with an average increase of 0.06 °C yr(-1). The average annual precipitation has increased by 163 mm or 6.52 mmyr(-1). Since changes in temperature and precipitation are immediately manifested as changes in phenology of local ecosystems, we examined phenological changes in all major ecoregions. The average start of the growing season (SOS) seems to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr(-1) and the length of growing season (LOS) appears to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr(-1), but there has been no change in the end of the growing season (EOS). There is considerable spatial and seasonal variation in changes in climate and phenological parameters. This is the first time that large scale climatic and phenological changes at the landscape level have been documented for the Himalayas. The rate of warming in the Himalayas is greater than the global average, confirming that the Himalayas are among the regions most vulnerable to climate change.

Effects of climatic variation on field metabolism and water relations of desert tortoises

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henen, B.T.; Peterson, C.C.; Wallis, I.R.; Berry, K.H.; Nagy, K.A.

1998-01-01

We used the doubly labeled water method to measure the field metabolic rates (FMRs, in kJ kg-1 day-1) and water flux rates (WIRs, in ml H2O kg-1 day-1) of adult desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) in three parts of the Mojave Desert in California over a 3.5-year period, in order to develop insights into the physiological responses of this threatened species to climate variation among sites and years. FMR, WIR, and the water economy index (WEI, in ml H2O kJ-1, an indicator of drinking of free water) differed extensively among seasons, among study sites, between sexes, and among years. In high-rainfall years, males had higher FMRs than females. Average daily rates of energy and water use by desert tortoises were extraordinarily variable: 28-fold differences in FMR and 237-fold differences in WIR were measured. Some of this variation was due to seasonal conditions, with rates being low during cold winter months and higher in the warm seasons. However, much of the variation was due to responses to year-to-year variation in rainfall. Annual spring peaks in FMR and WIR were higher in wet years than in drought years. Site differences in seasonal patterns were apparently due to geographic differences in rainfall patterns (more summer rain at eastern Mojave sites). In spring 1992, during an El Nino (ENSO) event, the WEI was greater than the maximal value obtainable from consuming succulent vegetation, indicating copious drinking of rainwater at that time. The physiological and behavioral flexibility of desert tortoises, evident in individuals living at all three study sites, appears central to their ability to survive droughts and benefit from periods of resource abundance. The strong effects of the El Nino (ENSO) weather pattern on tortoise physiology, reproduction, and survival elucidated in this and other studies suggest that local manifestations of global climate events could have a long-term influence on the tortoise populations in the Mojave Desert.

Widespread Climate Change in the Himalayas and Associated Changes in Local Ecosystems

PubMed Central

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Gautam, Shiva; Bawa, Kamaljit S.

2012-01-01

Background Climate change in the Himalayas, a biodiversity hotspot, home of many sacred landscapes, and the source of eight largest rivers of Asia, is likely to impact the well-being of ∼20% of humanity. However, despite the extraordinary environmental, cultural, and socio-economic importance of the Himalayas, and despite their rapidly increasing ecological degradation, not much is known about actual changes in the two most critical climatic variables: temperature and rainfall. Nor do we know how changes in these parameters might impact the ecosystems including vegetation phenology. Methodology/Principal Findings By analyzing temperature and rainfall data, and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) values from remotely sensed imagery, we report significant changes in temperature, rainfall, and vegetation phenology across the Himalayas between 1982 and 2006. The average annual mean temperature during the 25 year period has increased by 1.5°C with an average increase of 0.06°C yr−1. The average annual precipitation has increased by 163 mm or 6.52 mmyr−1. Since changes in temperature and precipitation are immediately manifested as changes in phenology of local ecosystems, we examined phenological changes in all major ecoregions. The average start of the growing season (SOS) seems to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr−1 and the length of growing season (LOS) appears to have advanced by 4.7 days or 0.19 days yr−1, but there has been no change in the end of the growing season (EOS). There is considerable spatial and seasonal variation in changes in climate and phenological parameters. Conclusions/Significance This is the first time that large scale climatic and phenological changes at the landscape level have been documented for the Himalayas. The rate of warming in the Himalayas is greater than the global average, confirming that the Himalayas are among the regions most vulnerable to climate change. PMID:22615804

The Tropical Western Hemisphere Warm Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Enfield, D. B.

2002-12-01

The paper describes and examines variability of the tropical Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) of water warmer than 28.5oC. The WHWP is the second-largest tropical warm pool on Earth. Unlike the Eastern Hemisphere warm pool in the western Pacific, which straddles the equator, the WHWP is entirely north of the equator. At various stages of development the WHWP extends over parts of the eastern North Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the western tropical North Atlantic. It has a large seasonal cycle and its interannual fluctuations of area and intensity are significant. Surface heat fluxes warm the WHWP through the boreal spring to an annual maximum of SST and WHWP area in the late summer/early fall, associated with eastern North Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activities and rainfall from northern South America to the southern tier of the United States. Observations suggest that a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback operating through longwave radiation and associated cloudiness seems to operate in the WHWP. During winter preceding large warm pool, there is an alteration of the Walker and Hadley circulation cells that serves as a "tropospheric bridge" for transferring Pacific ENSO effects to the Atlantic sector and inducing initial warming of warm pool. Associated with the warm SST anomalies is a decrease in sea level pressure anomalies and an anomalous increase in atmospheric convection and cloudiness. The increase in convective activity and cloudiness results in less net longwave radiation loss from the sea surface, which then reinforces SST anomalies.

Analysing regional climate change in Africa in a 1.5 °C global warming world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Torsten; Haensler, Andreas; Jacob, Daniela

2017-04-01

At the 21st session of the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris, a reaffirmation to strengthen the effort to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C was decided. However, even if global warming is limited, some regions might still be substantially affected by climate change, especially for continents like Africa where the socio-economic conditions are strongly linked to the climatic conditions. Hence, providing a detailed analysis of the projected climate changes in a 1.5 °C global warming scenario will allow the African society to undertake measures for adaptation in order to mitigate potential negative consequences. In order to provide such climate change information, the existing CORDEX Africa ensemble for RCP2.6 scenario simulations has systematically been increased by conducting additional REMO simulations using data from various global circulation models (GCMs) as lateral boundary conditions. Based on this ensemble, which now consists of eleven CORDEX Africa RCP2.6 regional climate model simulations from three RCMs (forced with different GCMs), various temperature and precipitation indices such as number of cold/hot days and nights, duration of the rainy season, the amount of rainfall in the rainy seasons and the number of dry spells have been calculated for a 1.5 °C global warming scenario. The applied method to define the 1.5 °C global warming period has been already applied in the IMPACT2C project. In our presentation, we will discuss the analysis of the climate indices in a 1.5 °C global warming world for the CORDEX-Africa region. Amongst presenting the magnitude of projected changes, we will also address the question for selected indices if the changes projected in a 1.5 °C global warming scenario are already larger than the climate variability and we will also draw links to the changes projected under a more extreme scenario.

Convection anomalies associated with warm eddy at the coastal area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, R.; Wang, D.

2017-12-01

A possible correlation between a warm eddy and thunderstorms and convective precipitations are investigated at the coastal area in the northwestern South China Sea. Compared to the climatological mean in August from 2006 to 2013, an extreme enhancement of thunderstorm activities and precipitation rate are identified at the southern offshore area of Hainan island in August 2010 when a strong and long-live warm eddy was observed near the coastline at the same time. The 3 hourly satellite data (TRMM) indicate that the nocturnal convections is strong offshore and that could be responsible for the extreme positive anomalies of thunderstorms and rainfall in August 2010. The TRMM data also show a small reduction of thunderstorm activities and rainfall on the island in the afternoon. Meanwhile, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was applied to simulate the change of rainfall in August 2010. The WRF simulation of rainfall rate is comparable with the observation results while there is some difference in the spatial distribution. The WRF simulation successfully captured the strong offshore rainfall and the diurnal variation of rainfall in August 2010. The WRF simulation indicated that the different convergence induced by sea/land breeze could be one essential reason for the adjustment of thunderstorms and rainfall in 2010. The substantial connection between sea/land breeze and upper layer heat content modified by the warm eddy is still on ongoing and will be reported in the future work.

The influence of land cover change in the Asian monsoon region on present-day and mid-Holocene climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.

2011-02-01

Using the general circulation model ECHAM5/JSBACH, we investigate the biogeophysical effect of large-scale afforestation and deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain on present-day and mid-Holocene climate. We demonstrate that the applied land cover change does not only modify the local climate but also change the climate in North Africa and the Middle East via teleconnections. Deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain enhances the rainfall in North Africa. In parts of the Sahara summer precipitation is more than doubled. In contrast, afforestation strongly decreases summer rainfall in the Middle East and even leads to the cessation of the rainfall-activity in some parts of this region. Regarding the local climate, deforestation results in a reduction of precipitation and a cooler climate as grass mostly has a higher albedo than forests. However, in the core region of the Asian monsoon the decrease of evaporative cooling in the monsoon season overcompensates this signal and results in a net warming. Afforestation has mainly the opposite effect, although the pattern of change is less clear. It leads to more precipitation in most parts of the Asian monsoon domain and a warmer climate except for the southern regions where a stronger evaporation decreases near-surface temperatures in the monsoon season. When prescribing mid-Holocene insolation, the pattern of local precipitation change differs. Afforestation particularly increases monsoon rainfall in the region along the Yellow River which was the settlement area of major prehistoric cultures. In this region, the effect of land cover change on precipitation is half as large as the orbitally-induced precipitation change. Thus, our model results reveal that mid- to late-Holocene land cover change could strongly have contributed to the decreasing Asian monsoon precipitation during the Holocene known from reconstructions.

The influence of land cover change in the Asian monsoon region on present-day and mid-Holocene climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, A.; Claussen, M.

2011-06-01

Using the general circulation model ECHAM5/JSBACH, we investigate the biogeophysical effect of large-scale afforestation and deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain on present-day and mid-Holocene climate. We demonstrate that the applied land cover change does not only modify the local climate but also change the climate in North Africa and the Middle East via teleconnections. Deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain enhances the rainfall in North Africa. In parts of the Sahara summer precipitation is more than doubled. In contrast, afforestation strongly decreases summer rainfall in the Middle East and even leads to the cessation of the rainfall-activity in some parts of this region. Regarding the local climate, deforestation results in a reduction of precipitation and a cooler climate as grass mostly has a higher albedo than forests. However, in the core region of the Asian monsoon the decrease in evaporative cooling in the monsoon season overcompensates this signal and results in a net warming. Afforestation has mainly the opposite effect, although the pattern of change is less clear. It leads to more precipitation in most parts of the Asian monsoon domain and a warmer climate except for the southern regions where a stronger evaporation decreases near-surface temperatures in the monsoon season. When prescribing mid-Holocene insolation, the pattern of local precipitation change differs. Afforestation particularly increases monsoon rainfall in the region along the Yellow River which was the settlement area of major prehistoric cultures. In this region, the effect of land cover change on precipitation is half as large as the orbitally-induced precipitation change. Thus, our model results reveal that mid- to late-Holocene land cover change could strongly have contributed to the decreasing Asian monsoon precipitation during the Holocene known from reconstructions.

The influence of ENSO, PDO and PNA on secular rainfall variations in Hawai`i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frazier, Abby G.; Elison Timm, Oliver; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Diaz, Henry F.

2017-11-01

Over the last century, significant declines in rainfall across the state of Hawai`i have been observed, and it is unknown whether these declines are due to natural variations in climate, or manifestations of human-induced climate change. Here, a statistical analysis of the observed rainfall variability was applied as first step towards better understanding causes for these long-term trends. Gridded seasonal rainfall from 1920 to 2012 is used to perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The leading EOF components are correlated with three indices of natural climate variations (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Pacific North American (PNA)), and multiple linear regression (MLR) is used to model the leading components with climate indices. PNA is the dominant mode of wet season (November-April) variability, while ENSO is most significant in the dry season (May-October). To assess whether there is an anthropogenic influence on rainfall, two methods are used: a linear trend term is included in the MLR, and pattern correlation coefficients (PCC) are calculated between recent rainfall trends and future changes in rainfall projected by downscaling methods. PCC results indicate that recent observed rainfall trends in the wet season are positively correlated with future expected changes in rainfall, while dry season PCC results do not show a clear pattern. The MLR results, however, show that the trend term adds significantly to model skill only in the dry season. Overall, MLR and PCC results give weak and inconclusive evidence for detection of anthropogenic signals in the observed rainfall trends.

An exploratory study on occurrence and impact of climate change on agriculture in Tamil Nadu, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varadan, R. Jayakumara; Kumar, Pramod; Jha, Girish Kumar; Pal, Suresh; Singh, Rashmi

2017-02-01

This study has been undertaken to examine the occurrence of climate change in Tamil Nadu, the southernmost state of India and its impact on rainfall pattern which is a primary constraint for agricultural production. Among the five sample stations examined across the state, the minimum temperature has increased significantly in Coimbatore while the same has decreased significantly in Vellore whereas both minimum and maximum temperatures have increased significantly in Madurai since 1969 with climate change occurring between late 1980s and early 1990s. As a result, the south-west monsoon has been disturbed with August rainfall increasing with more dispersion while September rainfall decreasing with less dispersion. Thus, September, the peak rainfall month of south-west monsoon before climate change, has become the monsoon receding month after climate change. Though there has been no change in the trend of the north-east monsoon, the quantity of October and November rainfall has considerably increased with increased dispersion after climate change. On the whole, south-west monsoon has decreased with decreased dispersion while north-east monsoon has increased with increased dispersion. Consequently, the season window for south-west monsoon crops has shortened while the north-east monsoon crops are left to fend against flood risk during their initial stages. Further, the incoherence in warming, climate change and rainfall impact seen across the state necessitates devising different indigenous and institutional adaptation strategies for different regions to overcome the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture.

Association between Childhood Diarrhoeal Incidence and Climatic Factors in Urban and Rural Settings in the Health District of Mbour, Senegal

PubMed Central

Thiam, Sokhna; Diène, Aminata N.; Sy, Ibrahima; Winkler, Mirko S.; Schindler, Christian; Ndione, Jacques A.; Faye, Ousmane; Vounatsou, Penelope; Utzinger, Jürg; Cissé, Guéladio

2017-01-01

We assessed the association between childhood diarrhoeal incidence and climatic factors in rural and urban settings in the health district of Mbour in western Senegal. We used monthly diarrhoeal case records among children under five years registered in 24 health facilities over a four-year period (2011–2014). Climatic data (i.e., daily temperature, night temperature and rainfall) for the same four-year period were obtained. We performed a negative binomial regression model to establish the relationship between monthly diarrhoeal incidence and climatic factors of the same and the previous month. There were two annual peaks in diarrhoeal incidence: one during the cold dry season and one during the rainy season. We observed a positive association between diarrhoeal incidence and high average temperature of 36 °C and above and high cumulative monthly rainfall at 57 mm and above. The association between diarrhoeal incidence and temperature was stronger in rural compared to urban settings, while higher rainfall was associated with higher diarrhoeal incidence in the urban settings. Concluding, this study identified significant health–climate interactions and calls for effective preventive measures in the health district of Mbour. Particular attention should be paid to urban settings where diarrhoea was most common in order to reduce the high incidence in the context of climatic variability, which is expected to increase in urban areas in the face of global warming. PMID:28895927

A structural equation model analysis of relationships among ENSO, seasonal descriptors and wildfires.

PubMed

Slocum, Matthew G; Orzell, Steve L

2013-01-01

Seasonality drives ecological processes through networks of forcings, and the resultant complexity requires creative approaches for modeling to be successful. Recently ecologists and climatologists have developed sophisticated methods for fully describing seasons. However, to date the relationships among the variables produced by these methods have not been analyzed as networks, but rather with simple univariate statistics. In this manuscript we used structural equation modeling (SEM) to analyze a proposed causal network describing seasonality of rainfall for a site in south-central Florida. We also described how this network was influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and how the network in turn affected the site's wildfire regime. Our models indicated that wet and dry seasons starting later in the year (or ending earlier) were shorter and had less rainfall. El Niño conditions increased dry season rainfall, and via this effect decreased the consistency of that season's drying trend. El Niño conditions also negatively influenced how consistent the moistening trend was during the wet season, but in this case the effect was direct and did not route through rainfall. In modeling wildfires, our models showed that area burned was indirectly influenced by ENSO via its effect on dry season rainfall. Area burned was also indirectly reduced when the wet season had consistent rainfall, as such wet seasons allowed fewer wildfires in subsequent fire seasons. Overall area burned at the study site was estimated with high accuracy (R (2) score = 0.63). In summary, we found that by using SEMs, we were able to clearly describe causal patterns involving seasonal climate, ENSO and wildfire. We propose that similar approaches could be effectively applied to other sites where seasonality exerts strong and complex forcings on ecological processes.

Effect of forest clear-cutting on landslide occurrences: Analysis of rainfall thresholds at Mt. Ichifusa, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, Hitoshi; Murakami, Wataru; Daimaru, Hiromu; Oguchi, Takashi

2017-01-01

Vegetation cover is an important factor for rainfall-induced landslides. We analyzed the effect of forest clear-cutting on the initiation of landslides using empirical rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) thresholds at Mt. Ichifusa, Japan, which is characterized by granitic rocks. Extensive clear-cutting was conducted for the forest industry during the late 1960s in the northern part of Mt. Ichifusa. This single episode of clear-cutting caused frequent shallow landslides triggered by rainfall. We interpreted orthorectified aerial photographs from 1969, 1976, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 1999, and 2005 using GIS and mapped landslides based on these photographs. We then analyzed all rainfall events of the warm seasons (Apr.-Oct.) of 1952-2011 (60 years) based on hourly rain gauge data. We used basic rainfall parameters such as mean rainfall intensity (I, mm/h) and duration (D, h) and estimated the return periods of these rainfall conditions. We investigated rainfall I-D thresholds for landslide occurrences in each period represented by the aerial photographs and assessed the relationships between landslide occurrences and topographic characteristics from 10-m DEMs. The results show that several landslides occurred after clear-cutting before 1976 but that they have occurred most frequently during the periods 1976-1980, 1980-1985, and 1990-1995. Numerous landslides occurred in these years at steeper and gentler slopes in the clear-cut area, but few landslides occurred in the non-clear-cut area. Rainfall analysis demonstrates that rainfall I-D thresholds after clear-cutting declined to half of those of the non-clear-cut area. The return periods of these rainfall I-D thresholds also declined to 1 year for short durations of < 12 h and to < 3 years for 72 h in the clear-cut area. Our findings underscore the substantial hysteresis effects between clear-cutting and landslide occurrences at Mt. Ichifusa.

Climate-change driven increase in high intensity rainfall events: Analysis of development in the last decades and towards an extrapolation of future progression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Eva; Pfister, Angela; Gerd, Büger; Maik, Heistermann; Bronstert, Axel

2015-04-01

Hydrological extreme events can be triggered by rainfall on different spatiotemporal scales: river floods are typically caused by event durations of between hours and days, while urban flash floods as well as soil erosion or contaminant transport rather result from storms events of very short duration (minutes). Still, the analysis of climate change impacts on rainfall-induced extreme events is usually carried out using daily precipitation data at best. Trend analyses of extreme rainfall at sub-daily or even sub-hourly time scales are rare. In this contribution two lines of research are combined: first, we analyse sub-hourly rainfall data for several decades in three European regions.Second, we investigate the scaling behaviour of heavy short-term precipitation with temperature, i.e. the dependence of high intensity rainfall on the atmospheric temperature at that particular time and location. The trend analysis of high-resolution rainfall data shows for the first time that the frequency of short and intensive storm events in the temperate lowland regions in Germany has increased by up to 0.5 events per year over the last decades. I.e. this trend suggests that the occurrence of these types of storms have multiplied over only a few decades. Parallel to the changes in the rainfall regime, increases in the annual and seasonal average temperature and changes in the occurrence of circulation patterns responsible for the generation of high-intensity storms have been found. The analysis of temporally highly resolved rainfall records from three European regions further indicates that extreme precipitation events are more intense with warmer temperatures during the rainfall event. These observations follow partly the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Based on this relation one may derive a general rule of maximum rainfall intensity associated to the event temperature, roughly following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This rule might be used for scenarios of future maximum rainfall intensities under a warming climate.

A Structural Equation Model Analysis of Relationships among ENSO, Seasonal Descriptors and Wildfires

PubMed Central

Slocum, Matthew G.; Orzell, Steve L.

2013-01-01

Seasonality drives ecological processes through networks of forcings, and the resultant complexity requires creative approaches for modeling to be successful. Recently ecologists and climatologists have developed sophisticated methods for fully describing seasons. However, to date the relationships among the variables produced by these methods have not been analyzed as networks, but rather with simple univariate statistics. In this manuscript we used structural equation modeling (SEM) to analyze a proposed causal network describing seasonality of rainfall for a site in south-central Florida. We also described how this network was influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and how the network in turn affected the site’s wildfire regime. Our models indicated that wet and dry seasons starting later in the year (or ending earlier) were shorter and had less rainfall. El Niño conditions increased dry season rainfall, and via this effect decreased the consistency of that season’s drying trend. El Niño conditions also negatively influenced how consistent the moistening trend was during the wet season, but in this case the effect was direct and did not route through rainfall. In modeling wildfires, our models showed that area burned was indirectly influenced by ENSO via its effect on dry season rainfall. Area burned was also indirectly reduced when the wet season had consistent rainfall, as such wet seasons allowed fewer wildfires in subsequent fire seasons. Overall area burned at the study site was estimated with high accuracy (R 2 score = 0.63). In summary, we found that by using SEMs, we were able to clearly describe causal patterns involving seasonal climate, ENSO and wildfire. We propose that similar approaches could be effectively applied to other sites where seasonality exerts strong and complex forcings on ecological processes. PMID:24086670

Unexpected consequences of a drier world: evidence that delay in late summer rains biases the population sex ratio of an insect.

PubMed

Bonal, Raul; Hernández, Marisa; Espelta, Josep M; Muñoz, Alberto; Aparicio, José M

2015-09-01

The complexity of animal life histories makes it difficult to predict the consequences of climate change on their populations. In this paper, we show, for the first time, that longer summer drought episodes, such as those predicted for the dry Mediterranean region under climate change, may bias insect population sex ratio. Many Mediterranean organisms, like the weevil Curculio elephas, become active again after summer drought. This insect depends on late summer rainfall to soften the soil and allow adult emergence from their underground refuges. We found that, as in many protandric species, more C. elephas females emerged later in the season. Male emergence timing was on average earlier and also more dependent on the beginning of late summer rainfall. When these rains were delayed, the observed weevil sex ratio was biased towards females. So far, the effects of global warming on animal sex ratios has been reported for temperature-dependent sex determination in reptiles. Our results show that rainfall timing can also bias the sex ratio in an insect, and highlight the need for keeping a phenological perspective to predict the consequences of climate change. We must consider not just the magnitude of the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall but also the effects of their timing.

Unexpected consequences of a drier world: evidence that delay in late summer rains biases the population sex ratio of an insect

PubMed Central

Bonal, Raul; Hernández, Marisa; Espelta, Josep M.; Muñoz, Alberto; Aparicio, José M.

2015-01-01

The complexity of animal life histories makes it difficult to predict the consequences of climate change on their populations. In this paper, we show, for the first time, that longer summer drought episodes, such as those predicted for the dry Mediterranean region under climate change, may bias insect population sex ratio. Many Mediterranean organisms, like the weevil Curculio elephas, become active again after summer drought. This insect depends on late summer rainfall to soften the soil and allow adult emergence from their underground refuges. We found that, as in many protandric species, more C. elephas females emerged later in the season. Male emergence timing was on average earlier and also more dependent on the beginning of late summer rainfall. When these rains were delayed, the observed weevil sex ratio was biased towards females. So far, the effects of global warming on animal sex ratios has been reported for temperature-dependent sex determination in reptiles. Our results show that rainfall timing can also bias the sex ratio in an insect, and highlight the need for keeping a phenological perspective to predict the consequences of climate change. We must consider not just the magnitude of the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall but also the effects of their timing. PMID:26473046

Dynamics of Cholera Outbreaks in Great Lakes Region of Africa, 1978–2008

PubMed Central

Nkoko, Didier Bompangue; Giraudoux, Patrick; Plisnier, Pierre-Denis; Tinda, Annie Mutombo; Piarroux, Martine; Sudre, Bertrand; Horion, Stephanie; Tamfum, Jean-Jacques Muyembe; Ilunga, Benoît Kebela

2011-01-01

Cholera outbreaks have occurred in Burundi, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya almost every year since 1977–1978, when the disease emerged in these countries. We used a multiscale, geographic information system–based approach to assess the link between cholera outbreaks, climate, and environmental variables. We performed time-series analyses and field investigations in the main affected areas. Results showed that cholera greatly increased during El Niño warm events (abnormally warm El Niños) but decreased or remained stable between these events. Most epidemics occurred in a few hotspots in lakeside areas, where the weekly incidence of cholera varied by season, rainfall, fluctuations of plankton, and fishing activities. During lull periods, persistence of cholera was explained by outbreak dynamics, which suggested a metapopulation pattern, and by endemic foci around the lakes. These links between cholera outbreaks, climate, and lake environments need additional, multidisciplinary study. PMID:22099090

A westward extension of the tropical Pacific warm pool leads to March through June drying in Kenya and Ethiopia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, A. Park; Funk, Christopher C.

2010-01-01

An estimated 14.3 million people are currently (July 2010) food insecure in Kenya and Ethiopia, and the U.S. government has spent more than $972 million on food aid in these two countries since 2009 (USAID, 2010). This insecurity stems from recent drought and rapid population growth that has outpaced agricultural development (Funk and others, 2008; Funk and Brown, 2009). Previous work by Funk and others (2005, 2008) and Verdin and others (2005) has linked drought conditions in Kenya and Ethiopia with warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Indian Ocean. Recent work has shown that Indian Ocean SSTs substantially affect rainfall in this region from March through June (Funk and others, 2008; Funk and Verdin, 2009). This season is known as the 'long rains' in Kenya and the 'Belg' rains in Ethiopia.

Predicting and attributing recent East African Spring droughts with dynamical-statistical climate model ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Shukla, S.; Hoerling, M. P.; Robertson, F. R.; Hoell, A.; Liebmann, B.

2013-12-01

During boreal spring, eastern portions of Kenya and Somalia have experienced more frequent droughts since 1999. Given the region's high levels of food insecurity, better predictions of these droughts could provide substantial humanitarian benefits. We show that dynamical-statistical seasonal climate forecasts, based on the latest generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean and uncoupled atmospheric models, effectively predict boreal spring rainfall in this area. Skill sources are assessed by comparing ensembles driven with full-ocean forcing with ensembles driven with ENSO-only sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Our analysis suggests that both ENSO and non-ENSO Indo-Pacific SST forcing have played an important role in the increase in drought frequencies. Over the past 30 years, La Niña drought teleconnections have strengthened, while non-ENSO Indo-Pacific convection patterns have also supported increased (decreased) Western Pacific (East African) rainfall. To further examine the relative contribution of ENSO, low frequency warming and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, we present decompositions of ECHAM5, GFS, CAM4 and GMAO AMIP simulations. These decompositions suggest that rapid warming in the western Pacific and steeper western-to-central Pacific SST gradients have likely played an important role in the recent intensification of the Walker circulation, and the associated increase in East African aridity. A linear combination of time series describing the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the strength of Indo-Pacific warming are shown to track East African rainfall reasonably well. The talk concludes with a few thoughts linking the potentially important interplay of attribution and prediction. At least for recent East African droughts, it appears that a characteristic Indo-Pacific SST and precipitation anomaly pattern can be linked statistically to support forecasts and attribution analyses. The combination of traditional AGCM attribution analyses with simple yet physically plausible statistical estimation procedures may help us better untangle some climate mysteries.

Temporal and spatial characteristics of annual and seasonal rainfall in Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngongondo, Cosmo; Xu, Chong-Yu; Gottschalk, Lars; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Alemaw, Berhanu

2010-05-01

An understanding of the temporal and spatial characteristics of rainfall is central to water resources planning and management. However, such information is often limited in many developing countries like Malawi. In an effort to bridge the information gap, this study examined the temporal and spatial charecteristics of rainfall in Malawi. Rainfall readings from 42 stations across Malawi from 1960 to 2006 were analysed at monthly, annual and seasonal scales. The Malawian rainfall season lasts from November to April. The data were firstly subjected to quality checks through the cumulative deviations test and the Standard Normal Homogeinity Test (SNHT). Monthly distribution in a typical year, called heterogeneity, was investigated using the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI). Further, normalized precipitation anomaly series of annual rainfall series (AR) and the PCI (APCI) were used to test for interannual rainfall variability. Spatial variability was characterised by fitting the Spatial Correlation function (SCF). The nonparametric Mann-Kendall statistic was used to investigate the temporal trends of the various rainfall variables. The results showed that 40 of the stations passed both data quality tests. For the two stations that failed, the data were adjusted using nearby stations. Annual and seasonal rainfall were found to be characterised by high spatial variation. The country mean annual rainfall was 1095 mm with mean interannual variability of 26%. The highland areas to the north and southeast of the country exhibited the highest rainfall and lowest interannual variability. Lowest rainfall coupled with high interannual variability was found in the Lower Shire basin, in the southern part of Malawi. This simillarity is the pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall should be expected because all stations had over 90% of their observed annual rainfall in the six month period between November and April. Monthly rainfall was found to be highly variable both temporally and spatially. None of the stations have stable monthly rainfall regimes (mean PCI of less than 10). Stations with the highest mean rainfall were found to have a lower interannual variability. The rainfall stations showed low spatial correlations for annual, monthly as well as seasonal timescales indicating that the data may not be suitable for spatial interpolation. However, some structure (i.e. lower correlation with distance) could be observed when aggregating the data at 50 mile intervals. The annual and seasonal rainfall series were dominated by negative trends. The spatial distribution of the trends can be described as heterogeneous, although most of the stations in the southern region have negative trends. At the monthly timescale, 37 of the stations show a negative trend with four of the stations, all in the south, showing significant negative trends. On the other hand, only 5 stations show positive trends with only one significant trend in the south. Keywords: Malawi, rainfall trends, spatial variation

Organization of vertical shear of wind and daily variability of monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouda, K. C.; Goswami, P.

2016-10-01

Very little is known about the mechanisms that govern the day to day variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall; in the current dominant view, the daily rainfall is essentially a result of chaotic dynamics. Most studies in the past have thus considered monsoon in terms of its seasonal (June-September) or monthly rainfall. We show here that the daily rainfall in June is associated with vertical shear of horizontal winds at specific scales. While vertical shear had been used in the past to investigate interannual variability of seasonal rainfall, rarely any effort has been made to examine daily rainfall. Our work shows that, at least during June, the daily rainfall variability of ISM rainfall is associated with a large scale dynamical coherence in the sense that the vertical shear averaged over large spatial extents are significantly correlated with area-averaged daily rainfall. An important finding from our work is the existence of a clearly delineated monsoon shear domain (MSD) with strong coherence between area-averaged shear and area-averaged daily rainfall in June; this association of daily rainfall is not significant with shear over only MSD. Another important feature is that the association between daily rainfall and vertical shear is present only during the month of June. Thus while ISM (June-September) is a single seasonal system, it is important to consider the dynamics and variation of June independently of the seasonal ISM rainfall. The association between large-scale organization of circulation and daily rainfall is suggested as a basis for attempting prediction of daily rainfall by ensuring accurate simulation of wind shear.

Future climate change enhances rainfall seasonality in a regional model of western Maritime Continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Suchul; Im, Eun-Soon; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2018-03-01

In this study, future changes in rainfall due to global climate change are investigated over the western Maritime Continent based on dynamically downscaled climate projections using the MIT Regional Climate Model (MRCM) with 12 km horizontal resolution. A total of nine 30-year regional climate projections driven by multi-GCMs projections (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-MR and ACCESS1.0) under multi-scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions (Historical: 1976-2005, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5: 2071-2100) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) are analyzed. Focusing on dynamically downscaled rainfall fields, the associated systematic biases originating from GCM and MRCM are removed based on observations using Parametric Quantile Mapping method in order to enhance the reliability of future projections. The MRCM simulations with bias correction capture the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall as well as the frequency distribution of daily rainfall. Based on projected rainfall changes under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the ensemble of MRCM simulations project a significant decrease in rainfall over the western Maritime Continent during the inter-monsoon periods while the change in rainfall is not relevant during wet season. The main mechanism behind the simulated decrease in rainfall is rooted in asymmetries of the projected changes in seasonal dynamics of the meridional circulation along different latitudes. The sinking motion, which is marginally positioned in the reference simulation, is enhanced and expanded under global climate change, particularly in RCP8.5 scenario during boreal fall season. The projected enhancement of rainfall seasonality over the western Maritime Continent suggests increased risk of water stress for natural ecosystems as well as man-made water resources reservoirs.

A national-scale seasonal hydrological forecast system: development and evaluation over Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Victoria A.; Davies, Helen N.; Kay, Alison L.; Brookshaw, Anca; Scaife, Adam A.

2017-09-01

Skilful winter seasonal predictions for the North Atlantic circulation and northern Europe have now been demonstrated and the potential for seasonal hydrological forecasting in the UK is now being explored. One of the techniques being used combines seasonal rainfall forecasts provided by operational weather forecast systems with hydrological modelling tools to provide estimates of seasonal mean river flows up to a few months ahead. The work presented here shows how spatial information contained in a distributed hydrological model typically requiring high-resolution (daily or better) rainfall data can be used to provide an initial condition for a much simpler forecast model tailored to use low-resolution monthly rainfall forecasts. Rainfall forecasts (hindcasts) from the GloSea5 model (1996 to 2009) are used to provide the first assessment of skill in these national-scale flow forecasts. The skill in the combined modelling system is assessed for different seasons and regions of Britain, and compared to what might be achieved using other approaches such as use of an ensemble of historical rainfall in a hydrological model, or a simple flow persistence forecast. The analysis indicates that only limited forecast skill is achievable for Spring and Summer seasonal hydrological forecasts; however, Autumn and Winter flows can be reasonably well forecast using (ensemble mean) rainfall forecasts based on either GloSea5 forecasts or historical rainfall (the preferred type of forecast depends on the region). Flow forecasts using ensemble mean GloSea5 rainfall perform most consistently well across Britain, and provide the most skilful forecasts overall at the 3-month lead time. Much of the skill (64 %) in the 1-month ahead seasonal flow forecasts can be attributed to the hydrological initial condition (particularly in regions with a significant groundwater contribution to flows), whereas for the 3-month ahead lead time, GloSea5 forecasts account for ˜ 70 % of the forecast skill (mostly in areas of high rainfall to the north and west) and only 30 % of the skill arises from hydrological memory (typically groundwater-dominated areas). Given the high spatial heterogeneity in typical patterns of UK rainfall and evaporation, future development of skilful spatially distributed seasonal forecasts could lead to substantial improvements in seasonal flow forecast capability, potentially benefitting practitioners interested in predicting hydrological extremes, not only in the UK but also across Europe.

Establishing native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barnes, T.G.; Larkin, J.L.; Arnett, M.B.

1998-12-31

The authors evaluated various methods of establishing native warm season grasses on two reclaimed Eastern Kentucky mines from 1994--1997. Most current reclamation practices incorporate the use of tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea) and other cool-season grasses/legumes that provide little wildlife habitats. The use of native warm season grasses will likely improve wildlife habitat on reclaimed strip mines. Objectives of this study were to compare the feasibility of establishing these grasses during fall, winter, or spring using a native rangeland seeder or hydroseeding; a fertilizer application at planting; or cold-moist stratification prior to hydroseeding. Vegetative cover, bare ground, species richness, and biomassmore » samples were collected at the end of each growing season. Native warm season grass plantings had higher plant species richness compared to cool-season reclamation mixtures. There was no difference in establishment of native warm season grasses as a result of fertilization or seeding technique. Winter native warm season grass plantings were failures and cold-moist stratification did not increase plant establishment during any season. As a result of a drought during 1997, both cool-season and warm season plantings were failures. Cool-season reclamation mixtures had significantly more vegetative cover and biomass compared to native warm season grass mixtures and the native warm season grass plantings did not meet vegetative cover requirements for bond release. Forbs and legumes that established well included pale purple coneflower (Echinacea pallida), lance-leaf coreopsis (Coreopsis lanceolata), round-headed lespedeza (Lespedeza capitata), partridge pea (Cassia fasiculata), black-eyed susan (Rudbeckia hirta), butterfly milkweed (Asclepias tuberosa), and bergamot (Monarda fistulosa). Results from two demonstration plots next to research plots indicate it is possible to establish native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines for wildlife habitat.« less

Representing northern peatland microtopography and hydrology within the Community Land Model

DOE PAGES

Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter E.; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; ...

2015-11-12

Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth for a vegetated wetland, independent of prescribed regional water tables. We introduce here a new configuration of the Community Land Model (CLM) which includes a fully prognostic water table calculation for a vegetated peatland. Our structural and process changes to CLM focus on modifications needed to representmore » the hydrologic cycle of bogs environment with perched water tables, as well as distinct hydrologic dynamics and vegetation communities of the raised hummock and sunken hollow microtopography characteristic of peatland bogs. The modified model was parameterized and independently evaluated against observations from an ombrotrophic raised-dome bog in northern Minnesota (S1-Bog), the site for the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change experiment (SPRUCE). Simulated water table levels compared well with site-level observations. The new model predicts hydrologic changes in response to planned warming at the SPRUCE site. At present, standing water is commonly observed in bog hollows after large rainfall events during the growing season, but simulations suggest a sharp decrease in water table levels due to increased evapotranspiration under the most extreme warming level, nearly eliminating the occurrence of standing water in the growing season. Simulated soil energy balance was strongly influenced by reduced winter snowpack under warming simulations, with the warming influence on soil temperature partly offset by the loss of insulating snowpack in early and late winter. Furthermore, the new model provides improved predictive capacity for seasonal hydrological dynamics in northern peatlands, and provides a useful foundation for investigation of northern peatland carbon exchange.« less

Representing northern peatland microtopography and hydrology within the Community Land Model

DOE PAGES

Shi, X.; Thornton, P. E.; Ricciuto, D. M.; ...

2015-02-20

Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth for a vegetated wetland, independent of prescribed regional water tables. We introduce here a new configuration of the Community Land Model (CLM) which includes a fully prognostic water table calculation for a vegetated peatland. Our structural and process changes to CLM focus on modifications needed to representmore » the hydrologic cycle of bogs environment with perched water tables, as well as distinct hydrologic dynamics and vegetation communities of the raised hummock and sunken hollow microtopography characteristic of peatland bogs. The modified model was parameterized and independently evaluated against observations from an ombrotrophic raised-dome bog in northern Minnesota (S1-Bog), the site for the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change experiment (SPRUCE). Simulated water table levels compared well with site-level observations. The new model predicts significant hydrologic changes in response to planned warming at the SPRUCE site. At present, standing water is commonly observed in bog hollows after large rainfall events during the growing season, but simulations suggest a sharp decrease in water table levels due to increased evapotranspiration under the most extreme warming level, nearly eliminating the occurrence of standing water in the growing season. Simulated soil energy balance was strongly influenced by reduced winter snowpack under warming simulations, with the warming influence on soil temperature partly offset by the loss of insulating snowpack in early and late winter. The new model provides improved predictive capacity for seasonal hydrological dynamics in northern peatlands, and provides a useful foundation for investigation of northern peatland carbon exchange.« less

Runoff and leaching of metolachlor from Mississippi River alluvial soil during seasons of average and below-average rainfall.

PubMed

Southwick, Lloyd M; Appelboom, Timothy W; Fouss, James L

2009-02-25

The movement of the herbicide metolachlor [2-chloro-N-(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)-N-(2-methoxy-1-methylethyl)acetamide] via runoff and leaching from 0.21 ha plots planted to corn on Mississippi River alluvial soil (Commerce silt loam) was measured for a 6-year period, 1995-2000. The first three years received normal rainfall (30 year average); the second three years experienced reduced rainfall. The 4-month periods prior to application plus the following 4 months after application were characterized by 1039 +/- 148 mm of rainfall for 1995-1997 and by 674 +/- 108 mm for 1998-2000. During the normal rainfall years 216 +/- 150 mm of runoff occurred during the study seasons (4 months following herbicide application), accompanied by 76.9 +/- 38.9 mm of leachate. For the low-rainfall years these amounts were 16.2 +/- 18.2 mm of runoff (92% less than the normal years) and 45.1 +/- 25.5 mm of leachate (41% less than the normal seasons). Runoff of metolachlor during the normal-rainfall seasons was 4.5-6.1% of application, whereas leaching was 0.10-0.18%. For the below-normal periods, these losses were 0.07-0.37% of application in runoff and 0.22-0.27% in leachate. When averages over the three normal and the three less-than-normal seasons were taken, a 35% reduction in rainfall was characterized by a 97% reduction in runoff loss and a 71% increase in leachate loss of metolachlor on a percent of application basis. The data indicate an increase in preferential flow in the leaching movement of metolachlor from the surface soil layer during the reduced rainfall periods. Even with increased preferential flow through the soil during the below-average rainfall seasons, leachate loss (percent of application) of the herbicide remained below 0.3%. Compared to the average rainfall seasons of 1995-1997, the below-normal seasons of 1998-2000 were characterized by a 79% reduction in total runoff and leachate flow and by a 93% reduction in corresponding metolachlor movement via these routes. An added observation in the study was that neither runoff of rainfall nor runoff loss of metolachlor was influenced by the presence of subsurface drains, compared to the results from plots without such drains that were described in an earlier paper.

Trends and homogeneity of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall over arid region of Rajasthan, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meena, Hari Mohan; Machiwal, Deepesh; Santra, Priyabrata; Moharana, Pratap Chandra; Singh, D. V.

2018-05-01

Knowledge of rainfall variability is important for regional-scale planning and management of water resources in agriculture. This study explores spatio-temporal variations, trends, and homogeneity in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall series of 62 stations located in arid region of Rajasthan, India using 55 year (1957-2011) data. Box-whisker plots indicate presence of outliers and extremes in annual rainfall, which made the distribution of annual rainfall right-skewed. Mean and coefficient of variation (CV) of rainfall reveals a high inter-annual variability (CV > 200%) in the western portion where the mean annual rainfall is very low. A general gradient of the mean monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall is visible from northwest to southeast direction, which is orthogonal to the gradient of CV. The Sen's innovative trend test is found over-sensitive in evaluating statistical significance of the rainfall trends, while the Mann-Kendall test identifies significantly increasing rainfall trends in June and September. Rainfall in July shows prominently decreasing trends although none of them are found statistically significant. Monsoon and annual rainfall show significantly increasing trends at only four stations. The magnitude of trends indicates that the rainfall is increasing at a mean rate of 1.11, 2.85, and 2.89 mm year-1 in August, monsoon season, and annual series. The rainfall is found homogeneous over most of the area except for few stations situated in the eastern and northwest portions where significantly increasing trends are observed. Findings of this study indicate that there are few increasing trends in rainfall of this Indian arid region.

Seasonal and ENSO Influences on the Stable Isotopic Composition of Galápagos Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, N. J.; Conroy, J. L.; Noone, D.; Cobb, K. M.; Konecky, B. L.; Rea, S.

2018-01-01

The origin of stable isotopic variability in precipitation over time and space is critical to the interpretation of stable isotope-based paleoclimate proxies. In the eastern equatorial Pacific, modern stable isotope measurements in precipitation (δ18Op and δDp) are sparse and largely unevaluated in the literature, although insights from such analyses would benefit the interpretations of several regional isotope-based paleoclimate records. Here we present a new 3.5 year record of daily-resolved δ18Op and δDp from Santa Cruz, Galápagos. With a prior 13 year record of monthly δ18Op and δDp from the island, these new data reveal controls on the stable isotopic composition of regional precipitation on event to interannual time scales. Overall, we find Galápagos δ18Op is significantly correlated with precipitation amount on daily and monthly time scales. The majority of Galápagos rain events are drizzle, or garúa, derived from local marine boundary layer vapor, with corresponding high δ18Op values due to the local source and increased evaporation and equilibration of smaller drops with boundary layer vapor. On monthly time scales, only precipitation in very strong, warm season El Niño months has substantially lower δ18Op values, as the sea surface temperature threshold for deep convection (28°C) is only surpassed at these times. The 2015/2016 El Niño event did not produce strong precipitation or δ18Op anomalies due to the short period of warm SST anomalies, which did not extend into the peak of the warm season. Eastern Pacific proxy isotope records may be biased toward periods of high rainfall during strong to very strong El Niño events.

Observing Seasonal and Diurnal Hydrometeorological Variability Within a Tropical Alpine Valley: Implications for Evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellstrom, R. A.; Mark, B. G.

2007-12-01

Conditions of glacier recession in the seasonally dry tropical Peruvian Andes motivate research to better constrain the hydrological balance in alpine valleys. There is an outstanding need to better understand the impact of the pronounced tropical hygric seasonality on energy and water budgets within pro-glacial valleys that channel glacier runoff to stream flow. This paper presents a novel embedded network installed in the glacierized Llanganuco valley of the Cordillera Blanca (9°S) comprising eight low-cost, discrete temperature and humidity microloggers ranging from 3470 to 4740 masl and an automatic weather station at 3850 masl. Data are aggregated into distinct dry and wet periods sampled from two full annual cycles (2004-2006) to explore patterns of diurnal and seasonal variability. The magnitude of diurnal solar radiation varies little within the valley between the dry and wet periods, while wet season near-surface air temperatures are cooler. Seasonally characteristic diurnal fluctuations in lapse rate partially regulate convection and humidity. Steep lapse rates during the wet season afternoon promote up-slope convection of warm, moist air and nocturnal rainfall events. Standardized grass reference evapotranspiration (ET0) was estimated using the FAO-56 algorithm of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and compared with estimates of actual ET from the process-based BROOK90 model that incorporates more realistic vegetation parameters. Comparisons of composite diurnal cycles of ET for the wet and dry periods suggest about twice the daily ET0 during the dry period, attributed primarily to the 500% higher vapor pressure deficit and 20% higher daily total solar irradiance. Conversely, the near absence of rainfall during the dry season diminishes actual ET below that of the wet season by two orders of magnitude. Nearly cloud-free daylight conditions are critical for ET during the wet season. We found significant variability of ET with elevation up through the valley. Humidity and temperature measurements were analyzed to show significant effects of elevation and proximity to melt-water lakes on vapor pressure deficit.

Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) in an epiphytic ant-plant, Myrmecodia beccarii Hook.f. (Rubiaceae).

PubMed

Tsen, Edward W J; Holtum, Joseph A M

2012-09-01

This study demonstrates unequivocally the presence of crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) in a species of the Rubiaceae, the fourth largest angiosperm plant family. The tropical Australian endemic epiphytic ant-plant, Myrmecodia beccarii Hook.f., exhibits net CO(2) uptake in the dark and a concomitant accumulation of titratable acidity in plants in the field and in cultivation. Plants growing near Cardwell, in a north Queensland coastal seasonally dry forest of Melaleuca viridiflora Sol. ex Gaertn., accumulated ~50 % of their 24 h carbon gain in the dark during the warm wet season. During the transition from the wet season to the dry season, 24 h carbon gain was reduced whilst the proportion of carbon accumulated during the dark increased. By mid dry season many plants exhibited zero net carbon uptake over 24 h, but CO(2) uptake in the dark was observed in some plants following localised rainfall. In a shade-house experiment, droughted plants in which CO(2) uptake in the light was absent and dark CO(2) uptake was reduced, were able to return to relatively high rates of CO(2) uptake in the light and dark within 12 h of rewatering.

The Tropical Western Hemisphere Warm Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chunzai; Enfield, David B.

The Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) of water warmer than 28.5°C extends from the eastern North Pacific to the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, and at its peak, overlaps with the tropical North Atlantic. It has a large seasonal cycle and its interannual fluctuations of area and intensity are significant. Surface heat fluxes warm the WHWP through the boreal spring to an annual maximum of SST and areal extent in the late summer/early fall, associated with eastern North Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activities and rainfall from northern South America to the southern tier of the United States. SST and area anomalies occur at high temperatures where small changes can have a large impact on tropical convection. Observations suggest that a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback operating through longwave radiation and associated cloudiness is responsible for the WHWP SST anomalies. Associated with an increase in SST anomalies is a decrease in atmospheric sea level pressure anomalies and an anomalous increase in atmospheric convection and cloudiness. The increase in convective activity and cloudiness results in less longwave radiation loss from the surface, which then reinforces SST anomalies.

Downscale climate change scenarios over the Western Himalayan region of India using multi-generation CMIP experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Lalu; Meher, Jitendra K.; Akhter, Javed

2017-04-01

Assessing climate change information over the Western Himalayan Region (WHR) of India is crucial but challenging task due to its limited numbers of station data containing huge missing values. The issues of missing values of station data were replaced the Multiple Imputation Chained Equation (MICE) technique. Finally 22 numbers of rain gauge stations having continuous data during 1901-2005 and 16 numbers stations having continuous temperature data during 1969-2009 were considered as " reference stations for assessing rainfall and temperature trends in addition to evaluation of the GCMs available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) over WRH. Station data indicates that the winter warming is higher and rapid (1.05oC) than other seasons and less warming in the post monsoon season in the last 41 years. Area averaged using 22 station data indicates that monsoon and winter rainfall has decreased by -5 mm and -320 mm during 1901-2000 while pre-monsoon and post monsoon showed an increasing trends of 21 mm and 13 mm respectively. Present study is constructed the downscaled climate change information at station locations (22 and 16 stations for rainfall and temperature respectively) over the WHR from the GCMs commonly available in the IPCC's different generations assessment reports namely 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th thereafter known as SAR, TAR, AR4 and AR5 respectively. Once the downscaled results are obtained for each generation model outputs, then a comparison of studies is carried out from the results of each generation. Finally an overall model improvement index (OMII) is developed using the downscaling results which is used to investigate the model improvement across generations as well as the improvement of downscaling results obtained from the empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) methods. In general, the results indicate that there is a gradual improvement of GCMs simulations as well as downscaling results across generation. Key words: MICE Techniques, CMIP3, CMIP5, ESD and OMII

Relationships between Tropical Rainfall Events and Regional Annual Rainfall Anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Painter, C.; Varble, A.; Zipser, E. J.

2016-12-01

Regional annual precipitation anomalies strongly impact the health of regional ecosystems, water resources, agriculture, and the probability of flood and drought conditions. Individual event characteristics, including rain rate, areal coverage, and stratiform fraction are also crucial in considering large-scale impacts on these resources. Therefore, forecasting individual event characteristics is important and could potentially be improved through correlation with longer and better predicted timescale environmental variables such as annual rainfall. This study examines twelve years of retrieved rainfall characteristics from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite at a 5° x 5° resolution between 35°N and 35°S, as a function of annual rainfall anomaly derived from Global Precipitation Climatology Project data. Rainfall event characteristics are derived at a system scale from the University of Utah TRMM Precipitation Features database and at a 5-km pixel scale from TRMM 2A25 products. For each 5° x 5° grid box and year, relationships between these characteristics and annual rainfall anomaly are derived. Additionally, years are separated into wet and dry groups for each grid box and are compared versus one another. Convective and stratiform rain rates, along with system area and volumetric rainfall, generally increase during wetter years, and this increase is most prominent over oceans. This is in agreement with recent studies suggesting that convective systems become larger and rainier when regional annual rainfall increases or when the climate warms. Over some land regions, on the other hand, system rain rate, volumetric rainfall, and area actually decrease as annual rainfall increases. Therefore, land and ocean regions generally exhibit different relationships. In agreement with recent studies of extreme rainfall in a changing climate, the largest and rainiest systems increase in relative size and intensity compared to average systems, and do so as a function of annual rainfall in most tropical regions. However, select land regions such as the Congo fail to follow this tendency. Changes in seasonal and diurnal cycles of PF characteristics as a function of regional annual rainfall anomaly are also analyzed.

Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Donghyun; Min, Seung-Ki; Fischer, Erich; Shiogama, Hideo; Bethke, Ingo; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Scinocca, John F.

2018-04-01

This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events, exerting devastating impacts on the human and natural system over the Asian monsoon region.

Spatial and temporal variability of organic C and N concentrations and export from 30 boreal rivers induced by land use and climate.

PubMed

Mattsson, Tuija; Kortelainen, Pirkko; Räike, Antti; Lepistö, Ahti; Thomas, David N

2015-03-01

Climate change scenarios for northern boreal regions indicate that there will be increasing temperature and precipitation, and the changes are expected to be larger in winter than in summer. These precipitation and discharge patterns, coupled with shorter ice cover/soil frost periods in the future would be expected to contribute significantly to changing flow paths of organic matter over a range of land use patterns. In order to study the impact of climate change on the seasonality of organic matter export we compared total organic carbon (TOC) and total organic nitrogen (TON) concentrations and export, during different seasons and climatically different years, over 12 years for 30 Finnish rivers separated into forest, agriculture and peat dominated catchments. The mean monthly TOC concentrations were highest during autumn and there was also a peak in May during the highest flow period. The mean monthly concentrations of TON were lowest during winter, increased in spring and remaining high throughout summer and autumn. The TOC/TON ratios were lowest during summer and highest during winter, and in all seasons the ratios were lowest in catchments with a high proportion of agricultural land and highest in peat-dominated catchments. The seasonality of TOC and TON exports reflected geographical location, hydrology and land use patterns. Most of the TOC and TON were transported during the high flow following the spring snowmelt and during rainfall in autumn. In all catchments the relative importance of the spring snowmelt decreased in wet and warm years. However, in peat-dominated catchments the proportion of spring period was over 30% of the annual export even in these wet and warm years, while in other catchments the proportion was about 20%. This might be linked to the northern location of the peat-dominated catchments and the permanent snow cover and spring snowmelt, even in warm years. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food-limited Arctic herbivore.

PubMed

Albon, Steve D; Irvine, R Justin; Halvorsen, Odd; Langvatn, Rolf; Loe, Leif E; Ropstad, Erik; Veiberg, Vebjørn; van der Wal, René; Bjørkvoll, Eirin M; Duff, Elizabeth I; Hansen, Brage B; Lee, Aline M; Tveraa, Torkild; Stien, Audun

2017-04-01

The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain-on-snow) can cause 'icing', restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a 'barometer' of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between-year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long-term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to 'rain-on-snow' events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density-dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important 'missing' mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

James Madison and a Shift in Precipitation Seasonality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Druckenbrod, D. L.; Mann, M. E.; Stahle, D. W.; Cleaveland, M. K.; Therrell, M. D.; Shugart, H. H.

2001-12-01

An eighteen-year meteorological diary and tree ring data from James Madison's Montpelier plantation provide a consistent reconstruction of early summer and prior fall rainfall for the 18th Century Virginia piedmont. The Madison meteorological diary suggests a seasonal shift in monthly rainfall towards an earlier wet season relative to 20th Century norms. Furthermore, dendroclimatic reconstructions of early summer and prior fall rainfall reflect this shift in the seasonality of summer rainfall. The most pronounced early summer drought during the Madison diary period is presented as a case study. This 1792 drought occurs during one of the strongest El Niño events on record and is highlighted in the correspondence of James Madison.

Linking Vital Rates of Landbirds on a Tropical Island to Rainfall and Vegetation Greenness

PubMed Central

Saracco, James F.; Radley, Paul; Pyle, Peter; Rowan, Erin; Taylor, Ron; Helton, Lauren

2016-01-01

Remote tropical oceanic islands are of high conservation priority, and they are exemplified by range-restricted species with small global populations. Spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall and plant productivity may be important in driving dynamics of these species. Yet, little is known about environmental influences on population dynamics for most islands and species. Here we leveraged avian capture-recapture, rainfall, and remote-sensed habitat data (enhanced vegetation index [EVI]) to assess relationships between rainfall, vegetation greenness, and demographic rates (productivity, adult apparent survival) of three native bird species on Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands: rufous fantail (Rhipidura rufifrons), bridled white-eye (Zosterops conspicillatus), and golden white-eye (Cleptornis marchei). Rainfall was positively related to vegetation greenness at all but the highest rainfall levels. Temporal variation in greenness affected the productivity of each bird species in unique ways. Predicted productivity of rufous fantail was highest when dry and wet season greenness values were high relative to site-specific 5-year seasonal mean values (i.e., relative greenness); while the white-eye species had highest predicted productivity when relative greenness contrasted between wet and dry seasons. Survival of rufous fantail and bridled white eye was positively related to relative dry-season greenness and negatively related to relative wet-season greenness. Bridled white-eye survival also showed evidence of a positive response to overall greenness. Our results highlight the potentially important role of rainfall regimes in affecting population dynamics of species on oceanic tropical islands. Understanding linkages between rainfall, vegetation, and animal population dynamics will be critical for developing effective conservation strategies in this and other regions where the seasonal timing, extent, and variability of rainfall is expected to change in the coming decades. PMID:26863013

Linking Vital Rates of Landbirds on a Tropical Island to Rainfall and Vegetation Greenness.

PubMed

Saracco, James F; Radley, Paul; Pyle, Peter; Rowan, Erin; Taylor, Ron; Helton, Lauren

2016-01-01

Remote tropical oceanic islands are of high conservation priority, and they are exemplified by range-restricted species with small global populations. Spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall and plant productivity may be important in driving dynamics of these species. Yet, little is known about environmental influences on population dynamics for most islands and species. Here we leveraged avian capture-recapture, rainfall, and remote-sensed habitat data (enhanced vegetation index [EVI]) to assess relationships between rainfall, vegetation greenness, and demographic rates (productivity, adult apparent survival) of three native bird species on Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands: rufous fantail (Rhipidura rufifrons), bridled white-eye (Zosterops conspicillatus), and golden white-eye (Cleptornis marchei). Rainfall was positively related to vegetation greenness at all but the highest rainfall levels. Temporal variation in greenness affected the productivity of each bird species in unique ways. Predicted productivity of rufous fantail was highest when dry and wet season greenness values were high relative to site-specific 5-year seasonal mean values (i.e., relative greenness); while the white-eye species had highest predicted productivity when relative greenness contrasted between wet and dry seasons. Survival of rufous fantail and bridled white eye was positively related to relative dry-season greenness and negatively related to relative wet-season greenness. Bridled white-eye survival also showed evidence of a positive response to overall greenness. Our results highlight the potentially important role of rainfall regimes in affecting population dynamics of species on oceanic tropical islands. Understanding linkages between rainfall, vegetation, and animal population dynamics will be critical for developing effective conservation strategies in this and other regions where the seasonal timing, extent, and variability of rainfall is expected to change in the coming decades.

Seasonal forecasts in the Sahel region: the use of rainfall-based predictive variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lodoun, Tiganadaba; Sanon, Moussa; Giannini, Alessandra; Traoré, Pierre Sibiry; Somé, Léopold; Rasolodimby, Jeanne Millogo

2014-08-01

In the Sahel region, seasonal predictions are crucial to alleviate the impacts of climate variability on populations' livelihoods. Agricultural planning (e.g., decisions about sowing date, fertilizer application date, and choice of crop or cultivar) is based on empirical predictive indices whose accuracy to date has not been scientifically proven. This paper attempts to statistically test whether the pattern of rainfall distribution over the May-July period contributes to predicting the real onset date and the nature (wet or dry) of the rainy season, as farmers believe. To that end, we considered historical records of daily rainfall from 51 stations spanning the period 1920-2008 and the different agro-climatic zones in Burkina Faso. We performed (1) principal component analysis to identify climatic zones, based on the patterns of intra-seasonal rainfall, (2) and linear discriminant analysis to find the best rainfall-based variables to distinguish between real and false onset dates of the rainy season, and between wet and dry seasons in each climatic zone. A total of nine climatic zones were identified in each of which, based on rainfall records from May to July, we derived linear discriminant functions to correctly predict the nature of a potential onset date of the rainy season (real or false) and that of the rainy season (dry or wet) in at least three cases out of five. These functions should contribute to alleviating the negative impacts of climate variability in the different climatic zones of Burkina Faso.

Use of vegetation sampling and analysis to detect a problem within a portion of a prairie restoration project.

PubMed

Franson, Raymond; Scholes, Chad; Krabbe, Stephen

2017-01-02

In June 2005, the Department of Energy (DOE) began establishing the 60-ha Howell Prairie around the disposal cell at the DOE Weldon Spring Site (WSS). Prairies were historically present in the area of the site. Quantitative Cover sampling was used to quantify Total Cover, Native Grass Cover, Non-Native Grass Cover, Native Forb Cover, Non-Native Forb Cover, Warm Season (C 4 Grass), Cool Season (C 3 Grass), Perennial Cover and Annual Cover, Litter, and Bare Ground. Four permanent vegetation sampling plots were established. The first 4 years of vegetation measurements at Howell Prairie were made during above-average rainfall years on burned and unburned plots. The fifth-year (2012) vegetation measurements were made after below-average rainfall. Five years of results not only document the consistency of the restoration effort in three areas, but also demonstrate deficiencies in Grass Cover in a fourth area. The results are not only useful for Howell Prairie, but will be useful for restoration work throughout the region. Restoration work suffers from a lack of success monitoring and in this case from a lack of available reference areas. Floristic Quality Indices are used to make qualitative comparisons of the site to Konza Prairie sites.

Indian summer monsoon variability forecasts in the North American multimodel ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Bohar; Cash, Ben; Kinter, James L., III

2018-04-01

The representation of the seasonal mean and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models that participated in the North American Multimodal Ensemble (NMME) phase 1 (NMME:1), and in nine global ocean-atmosphere coupled models participating in the NMME phase 2 (NMME:2) from 1982-2009, is evaluated over the Indo-Pacific domain with May initial conditions. The multi-model ensemble (MME) represents the Indian monsoon rainfall with modest skill and systematic biases. There is no significant improvement in the seasonal forecast skill or interannual variability of ISMR in NMME:2 as compared to NMME:1. The NMME skillfully predicts seasonal mean sea surface temperature (SST) and some of the teleconnections with seasonal mean rainfall. However, the SST-rainfall teleconnections are stronger in the NMME than observed. The NMME is not able to capture the extremes of seasonal mean rainfall and the simulated Indian Ocean-monsoon teleconnections are opposite to what are observed.

Inter-annual precipitation variabiity inferred from late Holocene speleothem records from Fiji: implications for SPCZ localisation and ENSO behaviour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattey, D.; Stephens, M.; Hoffmann, D.; Brett, M.

2015-12-01

The modern tropical Fiji climate is characterised by seasonal rainfall controlled by the position of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). Interannual rainfall is strongly modulated on decadal timescales by ENSO with higher rainfall associated with La Nina events. Voli Voli cave near Sigatoga (Viti Levu) is a stream passage that has been monitored since 2009. A U-Th dated laminated speleothem spans a 1500 year interval across the transition from the Medieval Warm Period into the Little Ice Age marked by a fabric change from finely laminated calcite with thin clay layers, to white well-laminated calcite. The older record is characterised by rising δ13C values followed by a rapid decrease in δ13C around 1200 AD. Evidence from cave monitoring shows that cave air CO2 levels are strongly seasonal as a result of greater ventilation by winter trade winds and high resolution δ13C record shows regularly spaced peaks correlated with paired laminae and cycles in P and S which provide annual markers driven by rainfall and seasonal ventilation. δ18O values remain relatively unchanged throughout the record but micromilling at sub-annual resolution reveals systematic cycles in δ18O that span groups of paired laminae with an inferred periodicity of 3-7 years i.e. a similar frequency to modern ENSO. The presence of these sub-decadal cycles in δ18O may be a result of a combination of factors. The amplitude of 2-3‰ would be equivalent to an amount-effect related change in annual precipitation of around 50% but an additional smoothing process, perhaps a result of aquifer storage, is required to attenuate interannual variance in precipitation. The Voli Voli record provides evidence of an underlying climatic change to more frequent La Niña conditions from 1200 AD and may be associated with increased conflict, shifts in settlements and changes in subsistence strategies on the island. Coeval speleothem isotope records from tropical Pacific Islands provide a provide a powerful means of locating the mean position and intensity of the SPCZ and changes in regional coupling of ocean-atmospheric circulation patterns.

Quality-control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK.

PubMed

Blenkinsop, Stephen; Lewis, Elizabeth; Chan, Steven C; Fowler, Hayley J

2017-02-01

Sub-daily rainfall extremes may be associated with flash flooding, particularly in urban areas but, compared with extremes on daily timescales, have been relatively little studied in many regions. This paper describes a new, hourly rainfall dataset for the UK based on ∼1600 rain gauges from three different data sources. This includes tipping bucket rain gauge data from the UK Environment Agency (EA), which has been collected for operational purposes, principally flood forecasting. Significant problems in the use of such data for the analysis of extreme events include the recording of accumulated totals, high frequency bucket tips, rain gauge recording errors and the non-operation of gauges. Given the prospect of an intensification of short-duration rainfall in a warming climate, the identification of such errors is essential if sub-daily datasets are to be used to better understand extreme events. We therefore first describe a series of procedures developed to quality control this new dataset. We then analyse ∼380 gauges with near-complete hourly records for 1992-2011 and map the seasonal climatology of intense rainfall based on UK hourly extremes using annual maxima, n-largest events and fixed threshold approaches. We find that the highest frequencies and intensities of hourly extreme rainfall occur during summer when the usual orographically defined pattern of extreme rainfall is replaced by a weaker, north-south pattern. A strong diurnal cycle in hourly extremes, peaking in late afternoon to early evening, is also identified in summer and, for some areas, in spring. This likely reflects the different mechanisms that generate sub-daily rainfall, with convection dominating during summer. The resulting quality-controlled hourly rainfall dataset will provide considerable value in several contexts, including the development of standard, globally applicable quality-control procedures for sub-daily data, the validation of the new generation of very high-resolution climate models and improved understanding of the drivers of extreme rainfall.

Quality‐control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK

PubMed Central

Lewis, Elizabeth; Chan, Steven C.; Fowler, Hayley J.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Sub‐daily rainfall extremes may be associated with flash flooding, particularly in urban areas but, compared with extremes on daily timescales, have been relatively little studied in many regions. This paper describes a new, hourly rainfall dataset for the UK based on ∼1600 rain gauges from three different data sources. This includes tipping bucket rain gauge data from the UK Environment Agency (EA), which has been collected for operational purposes, principally flood forecasting. Significant problems in the use of such data for the analysis of extreme events include the recording of accumulated totals, high frequency bucket tips, rain gauge recording errors and the non‐operation of gauges. Given the prospect of an intensification of short‐duration rainfall in a warming climate, the identification of such errors is essential if sub‐daily datasets are to be used to better understand extreme events. We therefore first describe a series of procedures developed to quality control this new dataset. We then analyse ∼380 gauges with near‐complete hourly records for 1992–2011 and map the seasonal climatology of intense rainfall based on UK hourly extremes using annual maxima, n‐largest events and fixed threshold approaches. We find that the highest frequencies and intensities of hourly extreme rainfall occur during summer when the usual orographically defined pattern of extreme rainfall is replaced by a weaker, north–south pattern. A strong diurnal cycle in hourly extremes, peaking in late afternoon to early evening, is also identified in summer and, for some areas, in spring. This likely reflects the different mechanisms that generate sub‐daily rainfall, with convection dominating during summer. The resulting quality‐controlled hourly rainfall dataset will provide considerable value in several contexts, including the development of standard, globally applicable quality‐control procedures for sub‐daily data, the validation of the new generation of very high‐resolution climate models and improved understanding of the drivers of extreme rainfall. PMID:28239235

Biogeographical variation of plumage coloration in the sexually dichromatic Hawai‘i ‘Amakihi (Chlorodrepanis virens)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gaudioso-Levita, Jacqueline M.; Hart, Patrick J.; Lapointe, Dennis; Veillet, Anne; Sebastian-Gonzalez, Esther

2017-01-01

Plumage coloration in birds can be of major importance to mate selection, social signaling, or predator avoidance. Variations in plumage coloration related to sex, age class, or seasons have been widely studied, but the effect of other factors such as climate is less known. In this study, we examine how carotenoid-based plumage coloration and sexual dichromatism of the Hawai‘i ‘Amakihi (Chlorodrepanis virens) varies with rainfall and temperature on Hawai‘i Island. We also examined whether Hawai‘i ‘Amakihi plumage coloration patterns follow Gloger’s rule, which states that animals in wetter climates have darker coloration. Hawai‘i ‘Amakihi were mist-netted and banded at 12 sites representing six major climatic zones on Hawai‘i Island. Feather samples were collected from two body regions: the breast and rump. Using spectrophotometry, we recorded coloration using measures of hue, saturation, and brightness. We conducted sex determination by polymerase chain reaction to confirm the sex of birds sampled. We found that the plumage coloration of Hawai‘i ‘Amakihi varied with both temperature and rainfall. ‘Amakihi plumage’s brightness showed a quadratic relationship with rainfall, contrary to Gloger’s rule, and decreased with temperature. Saturation depended on the interaction between temperature and rainfall. Increases in rainfall also increased saturation in warm areas, while they reduced saturation when the temperature was low. Finally, we found chromatic differences among sexes, but sexual dichromatism was not affected by the climatic conditions. This study provides evidence that rainfall and temperature play an important role in determining the plumage traits of Hawai‘i ‘Amakihi.

Climate science and famine early warning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, James P.; Funk, Chris; Senay, Gabriel B.; Choularton, R.

2005-01-01

Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised.

Climate science and famine early warning.

PubMed

Verdin, James; Funk, Chris; Senay, Gabriel; Choularton, Richard

2005-11-29

Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised.

Climate science and famine early warning

PubMed Central

Verdin, James; Funk, Chris; Senay, Gabriel; Choularton, Richard

2005-01-01

Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised. PMID:16433101

Seasonal Evolution and Variability Associated with the West African Monsoon System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.

2003-01-01

In this study, we investigate the seasonal variations in surface rainfall and associated large-scale processes in the tropical eastern Atlantic and West African region. The 5-yr (1998-2002) high-quality TRMM rainfall, sea surface temperature (SST), water vapor and cloud liquid water observations are applied along with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind components and a 3-yr (2000-2002) Quickscat satellite-observed surface wind product. Major mean rainfall over West Africa tends to be concentrated in two regions and is observed in two different seasons, manifesting an abrupt shift of the mean rainfall zone during June-July. (i) Near the Gulf of Guinea (about 5 degN), intense convection and rainfall are seen during April-June and roughly follow the seasonality of SST in the tropical eastern Atlantic. (ii) Along the latitudes of about 10 deg. N over the interior West African continent, a second intense rain belt begins to develop from July and remains there during the later summer season. This belt co-exists with a northwardmoved African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and its accompanying horizonal and vertical shear zones, the appearance and intensification of an upper tropospheric Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), and a strong low-level westerly flow. Westward-propagating wave signals [ i e . , African easterly waves (AEWs)] dominate the synoptic-scale variability during July-September, in contrast to the evident eastward-propagating wave signals during May- June. The abrupt shift of mean rainfall zone thus turns out to be a combination of two different physical processes: (i) Evident seasonal cycles in the tropical eastern Atlantic ocean which modulate convection and rainfall in the Gulf of Guinea by means of SST thermal forcing and SST-related meridional gradient; (ii) The interaction among the AEJ, TEJ, low-level westerly flow, moist convection and AEWs during July-September which modulates rainfall variability in the interior West Africa, primarily within the ITCZ rain band. Evident seasonality in synoptic-scale wave signals is shown to be a good evidence for this seasonal evolution.

Precipitation Changes Throughout the South Pacific Convergence Zone During the Last 2000 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maloney, A. E.; Nelson, D. B.; Sachs, J. P.

2016-12-01

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the southern hemisphere's most prominent precipitation feature extending 3000km southeastwards from Papua New Guinea to French Polynesia. Seasonal and interannual variability in SPCZ rainfall is well characterized by satellite data, however an understanding of this feature prior to the instrumental record is lacking. Rainfall in the western tropical Pacific is difficult to reconstruct due to a dearth of archives that are both high-resolution and continuous. Here we present molecular fossil hydroclimate reconstructions from the last 2000 years. The hydrogen isotopic composition of the algal lipid biomarker dinosterol was measured in 10 freshwater lake sediment cores from 7 lakes on 4 islands in Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands, and Wallis and Futuna. Coretop δ2Hdinosterol values were well correlated with satellite-derived rainfall rates, providing a transfer function for deriving precipitation rates from sedimentary δ2Hdinosterol values. The Vanuatu and Wallis records indicate that the south-western portion of the SPCZ was driest during the transition from the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) to the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1200-1400 CE) with rainfall rates as low as 2mm/day compare to more typical values of 4mm/day. Conversely, the central SPCZ (Solomon Islands) experienced the driest conditions ( 5mm/day) during the MWP (600-1200 CE) and has maintained high ( 9mm/day) rainfall rates since the LIA. The tropical water cycle influences global climate and these quantitative precipitation records are important for understanding SPCZ natural variability.

Impacts of northern Tibetan Plateau on East Asian summer rainfall via modulating midlatitude transient eddies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Jiechun; Xu, Haiming; Shi, Ning; Zhang, Leying; Ma, Jing

2017-08-01

Roles of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in forming and changing the seasonal Asian climate system have been widely explored. However, little is known about modulation effects of the TP on extratropical transient eddies (TEs) and subsequent synoptic responses of the East Asian rainfall. In this study, the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 coupled with a slab ocean model is employed to highlight the important role of the TP in regulating the upper-tropospheric transient wave train. Comparison between sensitivity experiments with and without the TP shows that the northern TP excites a strong anomalous anticyclone, which shifts the upper-level East Asian westerly jet northward and helps transfer barotropic and baroclinic energy from the mean flow to the synoptic TE flow. The transient wave train is primarily shifted northward by northern TP and is forced to propagate southeastward along the eastern flank of the TP until reaching eastern China. Before the strengthening of monsoonal southerlies, the TP-modulated transient wave train cools the troposphere, which decreases the static stability over northern China. Meanwhile, the associated anomalous warm advection induces ascending motion, leading to excessive rainfall by releasing unstable energy as the southerly strengthens. Due to the southeastward propagation of the wave train, anomalous heavy rainfall subsequently appears over eastern China from north to south, which increases day-to-day rainfall variation in this region. Additionally, occurrence of this upper-tropospheric transient wave train associated with low-level southerly peak is substantially increased by northern TP.

Performance of Sorghum Varieties under Variable Rainfall in Central Tanzania

PubMed Central

Tumbo, S. D.; Kihupi, N. I.; Rwehumbiza, Filbert B.

2017-01-01

Rainfall variability has a significant impact on crop production with manifestations in frequent crop failure in semiarid areas. This study used the parameterized APSIM crop model to investigate how rainfall variability may affect yields of improved sorghum varieties based on long-term historical rainfall and projected climate. Analyses of historical rainfall indicate a mix of nonsignificant and significant trends on the onset, cessation, and length of the growing season. The study confirmed that rainfall variability indeed affects yields of improved sorghum varieties. Further analyses of simulated sorghum yields based on seasonal rainfall distribution indicate the concurrence of lower grain yields with the 10-day dry spells during the cropping season. Simulation results for future sorghum response, however, show that impacts of rainfall variability on sorghum will be overridden by temperature increase. We conclude that, in the event where harms imposed by moisture stress in the study area are not abated, even improved sorghum varieties are likely to perform poorly. PMID:28536708

Performance of Sorghum Varieties under Variable Rainfall in Central Tanzania.

PubMed

Msongaleli, Barnabas M; Tumbo, S D; Kihupi, N I; Rwehumbiza, Filbert B

2017-01-01

Rainfall variability has a significant impact on crop production with manifestations in frequent crop failure in semiarid areas. This study used the parameterized APSIM crop model to investigate how rainfall variability may affect yields of improved sorghum varieties based on long-term historical rainfall and projected climate. Analyses of historical rainfall indicate a mix of nonsignificant and significant trends on the onset, cessation, and length of the growing season. The study confirmed that rainfall variability indeed affects yields of improved sorghum varieties. Further analyses of simulated sorghum yields based on seasonal rainfall distribution indicate the concurrence of lower grain yields with the 10-day dry spells during the cropping season. Simulation results for future sorghum response, however, show that impacts of rainfall variability on sorghum will be overridden by temperature increase. We conclude that, in the event where harms imposed by moisture stress in the study area are not abated, even improved sorghum varieties are likely to perform poorly.

Three-dimensional circulation structures leading to heavy summer rainfall over central North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Wei; Yu, Rucong; Li, Jian; Yuan, Weihua

2016-04-01

Using daily and hourly rain gauge records and Japanese 25 year reanalysis data over 30 years, this work reveals two major circulation structures leading to heavy summer rainfall events in central North China (CNC), and further analyzes the effects of the circulations on these rainfall events. One circulation structure has an extensive upper tropospheric warm anomaly (UTWA) covering North China (NC). By strengthening the upper anticyclonic anomaly and lower southerly flows around NC, the UTWA plays a positive role in forming upper level divergence and lower level moisture convergence. As a result, the warm anomalous circulation has a solid relationship with large-scale, long-duration rainfall events with a diurnal peak around midnight to early morning. The other circulation structure has an upper tropospheric cold anomaly (UTCA) located in the upper stream of NC. Contributed to by the UTCA, a cold trough appears in the upper stream of NC and an unstable configuration with upper (lower) cold (warm) anomalies forms around CNC. Consequently, CNC is covered by strong instability and high convective energy, and the cold anomalous circulation is closely connected with local, short-duration rainfall events concentrated from late afternoon to early nighttime. The close connections between circulation structures and typical rainfall events are confirmed by two independent converse analysis processes: from circulations to rainfall characteristics, and from typical rainfall events to circulations. The results presented in this work indicate that the upper tropospheric temperature has significant influences on heavy rainfall, and thus more attention should be paid to the upper tropospheric temperature in future analyses.

Climatic controls of the interannual to decadal variability in Saudi Arabian dust activity: Towards the development of a seasonal prediction tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Notaro, M.; Liu, Z.; Alkolibi, F.; Fadda, E.; Bakhrjy, F.

2013-12-01

Atmospheric dust significantly influences the climate system, as well as human life in Saudi Arabia. Skillful seasonal prediction of dust activity with climatic variables will help prevent some negative social impacts of dust storms. Yet, the climatic regulators on Saudi Arabian dust activity remain largely unaddressed. Remote sensing and station observations show consistent seasonal cycles in Saudi Arabian dust activity, which peaks in spring and summer. The climatic controls on springtime and summertime Saudi Arabian dust activity during 1975-2010 are studied using observational and reanalysis data. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of the observed Saudi Arabian dust storm frequency shows a dominant homogeneous pattern across the country, which has distinct interannual and decadal variations, as revealed by the power spectrum. Regression and correlation analyses reveal that Saudi Arabian dust activity is largely tied to precipitation on the Arabian Peninsula in spring and northwesterly (Shamal) wind in summer. On the seasonal-interannual time scale, warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase (El Niño) in winter-to-spring inhibits spring dust activity by increasing the precipitation over the Rub'al Khali Desert, a major dust source region on the southern Arabian Peninsula; warm ENSO and warm Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) in winter-to-spring favor less summer dust activity by producing anomalously low sea-level pressure over eastern north Africa and Arabian Peninsula, which leads to the reduced Shamal wind speed. The decadal variation in dust activity is likely associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which impacts Sahel rainfall and North African dust, and likely dust transport to Saudi Arabia. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and tropical Indian Ocean SST also have influence on the decadal variation in Saudi Arabian dust activity, by altering precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula and summer Shamal wind speed. Using eastern tropical Pacific SST as the high-frequency predictor and antecedent accumulated precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa as low-frequency predictors, the predicted seasonal dust activity over Saudi Arabia is well correlated with the original time series (correlation above 0.6).

Characterization and disaggregation of daily rainfall in the Upper Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engida, Agizew N.; Esteves, Michel

2011-03-01

SummaryIn Ethiopia, available rainfall records are mainly limited to daily time steps. Though rainfall data at shorter time steps are important for various purposes like modeling of erosion processes and flood hydrographs, they are hardly available in Ethiopia. The objectives of this study were (i) to study the temporal characteristics of daily rains at two stations in the region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB) and (ii) to calibrate and evaluate a daily rainfall disaggregation model. The analysis was based on rainfall data of Bahir Dar and Gonder Meteorological Stations. The disaggregation model used was the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse Model (MBLRPM). The mean daily rainfall intensity varied from about 4 mm in the dry season to 17 mm in the wet season with corresponding variation in raindays of 0.4-26 days. The observed maximum daily rainfall varied from 13 mm in the dry month to 200 mm in the wet month. The average wet/dry spell length varied from 1/21 days in the dry season to 6/1 days in the rainy season. Most of the rainfall occurs in the afternoon and evening periods of the day. Daily rainfall disaggregation using the MBLRPM alone resulted in poor match between the disaggregated and observed hourly rainfalls. Stochastic redistribution of the outputs of the model using Beta probability distribution function improved the agreement between observed and calculated hourly rain intensities. In areas where convective rainfall is dominant, the outputs of MBLRPM should be redistributed using relevant probability distributions to simulate the diurnal rainfall pattern.

Eddy covariance and lysimeter measurements of moisture fluxes over supraglacial debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brock, Benjamin

2015-04-01

Supraglacial debris covers have the potential to evaporate large quantities of water derived from either sub-debris ice melt or precipitation. Currently, knowledge of evaporation and condensation rates in supraglacial debris is limited due to the difficulty of making direct measurements. This paper presents eddy covariance and lysimeter measurements of moisture fluxes made over a 0.2 m debris layer at Miage debris covered glacier, Italian Alps, during the 2013 ablation season. The meteorological data are complimented by reflectometer measurements of volumetric water fraction in the saturated and vadose zones of the debris layer. The lysimeters were designed specifically to mimic the debris cover and were embedded within the debris matrix, level with the surface. Over the ablation season, the latent heat flux is dominated by evaporation, and the flux magnitude closely follows the daily cycle of daytime solar heating and night time radiative cooling of debris. Mean flux values are of the order of 1 kg m-2 day-1, but often higher for short periods following rainfall. Condensation rates are relatively small and restricted to night time and humid conditions when the debris-atmosphere vapour pressure gradient reverses due to relatively warm air overlying cold debris. The reflectometer measurements provide evidence of vertical water movement through capillary rise in the upper part of the fine-grained debris layer, just above the saturated horizon, and demonstrate how debris bulk water content increases after rainfall. The latent heat flux responds directly to changes in wind speed, indicating that atmospheric turbulence can penetrate porous upper debris layers to the saturated horizon. Hence, vertical sorting of debris sediments and antecedent rainfall are important in determining evaporation rates, in addition to current meteorological conditions. Comparison of lysimeter measurements with rainfall data provides an estimate that between 45% and 89% of rainfall is evaporated directly back to the atmosphere. Rainfall evaporation rates increase with debris impermeability and temperature, with highest rates occurring when a shower falls on hot debris. If these point measurements are representative of larger scales, evaporation rates of the order of 1000 tonnes km-2 day-1 are implied, with higher rates following rainfall. This has important implications for downstream runoff, sub-debris ice melt rates (due to consumption of evaporative latent heat energy) and, possibly, convective atmospheric processes.

Projected rainfall and temperature changes over Malaysia at the end of the 21st century based on PRECIS modelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loh, Jui Le; Tangang, Fredolin; Juneng, Liew; Hein, David; Lee, Dong-In

2016-05-01

This study investigates projected changes in rainfall and temperature over Malaysia by the end of the 21st century based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1B and B2 emission scenarios using the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS). The PRECIS regional climate model (HadRM3P) is configured in 0.22° × 0.22° horizontal grid resolution and is forced at the lateral boundaries by the UKMO-HadAM3P and UKMOHadCM3Q0 global models. The model performance in simulating the present-day climate was assessed by comparing the modelsimulated results to the Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) dataset. Generally, the HadAM3P/PRECIS and HadCM3Q0/PRECIS simulated the spatio-temporal variability structure of both temperature and rainfall reasonably well, albeit with the presence of cold biases. The cold biases appear to be associated with the systematic error in the HadRM3P. The future projection of temperature indicates widespread warming over the entire country by the end of the 21st century. The projected temperature increment ranges from 2.5 to 3.9°C, 2.7 to 4.2°C and 1.7 to 3.1°C for A2, A1B and B2 scenarios, respectively. However, the projection of rainfall at the end of the 21st century indicates substantial spatio-temporal variation with a tendency for drier condition in boreal winter and spring seasons while wetter condition in summer and fall seasons. During the months of December to May, ~20-40% decrease of rainfall is projected over Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo, particularly for the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. During the summer months, rainfall is projected to increase by ~20-40% across most regions in Malaysia, especially for A2 and A1B scenarios. The spatio-temporal variations in the projected rainfall can be related to the changes in the weakening monsoon circulations, which in turn alter the patterns of regional moisture convergences in the region.

Biocrusts modulate warming and rainfall exclusion effects on soil respiration in a semi-arid grassland

PubMed Central

Escolar, Cristina; Maestre, Fernando T.; Rey, Ana

2015-01-01

Soil surface communities composed of cyanobacteria, algae, mosses, liverworts, fungi, bacteria and lichens (biocrusts) largely affect soil respiration in dryland ecosystems. Climate change is expected to have large effects on biocrusts and associated ecosystem processes. However, few studies so far have experimentally assessed how expected changes in temperature and rainfall will affect soil respiration in biocrust-dominated ecosystems. We evaluated the impacts of biocrust development, increased air temperature and decreased precipitation on soil respiration dynamics during dry (2009) and wet (2010) years, and investigated the relative importance of soil temperature and moisture as environmental drivers of soil respiration, in a semiarid grassland from central Spain. Soil respiration rates were significantly lower in the dry than during the wet year, regardless of biocrust cover. Warming increased soil respiration rates, but this response was only significant in biocrust-dominated areas (> 50% biocrust cover). Warming also increased the temperature sensitivity (Q10 values) of soil respiration in biocrust-dominated areas, particularly during the wet year. The combination of warming and rainfall exclusion had similar effects in low biocrust cover areas. Our results highlight the importance of biocrusts as a modulator of soil respiration responses to both warming and rainfall exclusion, and indicate that they must be explicitly considered when evaluating soil respiration responses to climate change in drylands. PMID:25914428

A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

Local and remote impacts of aerosol species on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, A. G.; Guo, L.; Highwood, E.

2016-12-01

The HadGEM2 AGCM is used to determine the most important anthropogenic aerosols in the Indian monsoon using experiments in which observed trends in individual aerosol species are imposed. Sulphur dioxide (SD) emissions are shown to impact rainfall more strongly than black carbon (BC) aerosols, causing reduced rainfall especially over northern India. Significant perturbations due to BC are not noted until its emissions are scaled up in a sensitivity test, resulting in rainfall increases over northern India due to the Elevated Heat Pump mechanism, enhancing convection during the premonsoon and bringing forward the monsoon onset. Secondly, the impact of anthropogenic aerosols is compared to that of increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations and observed sea-surface temperature (SST) warming. The tropospheric temperature gradient driving the monsoon shows weakening when forced by either SD or imposed SST trends. However the observed SST trend is dominated by warming in the deep tropics; when the component of SST trend related to aerosol emissions is removed, further warming is found in the extratropical northern hemisphere that tends to offset monsoon weakening. This suggests caution is needed when using SST forcing as a proxy for greenhouse warming. Finally, aerosol emissions are decomposed into those from the Indian region and those elsewhere, in pairs of experiments with SD and BC. Both local and remote aerosol emissions are found to lead to rainfall changes over India; for SD, remote aerosols contribute around 75% of the rainfall decrease over India, while for BC the remote forcing is even more dominant.

Local and remote impacts of aerosol species on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Liang; Turner, Andrew; Highwood, Eleanor

2016-04-01

The HadGEM2 AGCM is used to determine the most important anthropogenic aerosols in the Indian monsoon using experiments in which observed trends in individual aerosol species are imposed. Sulphur dioxide (SD) emissions are shown to impact rainfall more strongly than black carbon (BC) aerosols, causing reduced rainfall especially over northern India. Significant perturbations due to BC are not noted until its emissions are scaled up in a sensitivity test, in which rainfall increases over northern India as a result of the Elevated Heat Pump mechanism, enhancing convection during the pre-monsoon and bringing forward the monsoon onset. Secondly, the impact of anthropogenic aerosols is compared to that of increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations and observed sea-surface temperature (SST) warming. The tropospheric temperature gradient driving the monsoon shows weakening when forced by either SD or imposed SST trends. However the observed SST trend is dominated by warming in the deep tropics; when the component of SST trend related to aerosol emissions is removed, further warming is found in the extratropical northern hemisphere that tends to offset monsoon weakening. This suggests caution is needed when using SST forcing as a proxy for greenhouse warming. Finally, aerosol emissions are decomposed into those from the Indian region and those elsewhere, in pairs of experiments with SD and BC. Both local and remote aerosol emissions are found to lead to rainfall changes over India; for SD, remote aerosols contribute around 75% of the rainfall decrease over India, while for BC the remote forcing is even more dominant.

The effect of climate manipulations on the herbivory of the pest slug Deroceras reticulatum (Müller, 1774) (Pulmonata: Agriolimacidae)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Danasoury, H.; Iglesias-Piñeiro, J.; Córdoba, M.

2016-10-01

The pestiferous status of the terrestrial slug Deroceras reticulatum and the strong dependence of its biology and ecology on climatic factors have driven research on the potential responses of the slug to predicted scenarios of climate change. Here, we report two short-term experiments performed outdoors, under seminatural conditions, to assess the behavioural response of D. reticulatum to different climate manipulations in terms of herbivory, by measuring over 7 days the damage inflicted by slug populations to lettuce seedlings. The climate manipulations tested emulate predicted climatic conditions for northwest Spain, specifically winter warming and increased summer rainfall, in contrast respectively with normal winter conditions and summer without rain conditions. In a winter experiment, we compared a normal winter treatment with a winter warming treatment; with respect to the normal winter treatment, the winter warming treatment was characterised by higher temperature, lower relative humidity and the absence of rainfall. In a summer experiment, we compared a summer drought treatment with an increased summer rainfall treatment; with respect to the summer drought treatment, the increased summer rainfall treatment was characterised by the presence of rainfall, while the conditions of temperature and relative humidity were similar in both treatments. Neither winter warming nor increased summer rainfall did lead to a significant increase on the number of seedlings damaged by the slugs. However, with both treatments, we found a moderate increase on the amount of damage suffered by the seedlings. The results are discussed in the context of the potential responses of D. reticulatum to future climatic conditions.

The effect of climate manipulations on the herbivory of the pest slug Deroceras reticulatum (Müller, 1774) (Pulmonata: Agriolimacidae).

PubMed

El-Danasoury, H; Iglesias-Piñeiro, J; Córdoba, M

2016-10-01

The pestiferous status of the terrestrial slug Deroceras reticulatum and the strong dependence of its biology and ecology on climatic factors have driven research on the potential responses of the slug to predicted scenarios of climate change. Here, we report two short-term experiments performed outdoors, under seminatural conditions, to assess the behavioural response of D. reticulatum to different climate manipulations in terms of herbivory, by measuring over 7 days the damage inflicted by slug populations to lettuce seedlings. The climate manipulations tested emulate predicted climatic conditions for northwest Spain, specifically winter warming and increased summer rainfall, in contrast respectively with normal winter conditions and summer without rain conditions. In a winter experiment, we compared a normal winter treatment with a winter warming treatment; with respect to the normal winter treatment, the winter warming treatment was characterised by higher temperature, lower relative humidity and the absence of rainfall. In a summer experiment, we compared a summer drought treatment with an increased summer rainfall treatment; with respect to the summer drought treatment, the increased summer rainfall treatment was characterised by the presence of rainfall, while the conditions of temperature and relative humidity were similar in both treatments. Neither winter warming nor increased summer rainfall did lead to a significant increase on the number of seedlings damaged by the slugs. However, with both treatments, we found a moderate increase on the amount of damage suffered by the seedlings. The results are discussed in the context of the potential responses of D. reticulatum to future climatic conditions.

Analysis of rainfall seasonality from observations and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascale, Salvatore; Lucarini, Valerio; Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; Hasson, Shabeh ul

2015-06-01

Two new indicators of rainfall seasonality based on information entropy, the relative entropy (RE) and the dimensionless seasonality index (DSI), together with the mean annual rainfall, are evaluated on a global scale for recently updated precipitation gridded datasets and for historical simulations from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. The RE provides a measure of the number of wet months and, for precipitation regimes featuring a distinct wet and dry season, it is directly related to the duration of the wet season. The DSI combines the rainfall intensity with its degree of seasonality and it is an indicator of the extent of the global monsoon region. We show that the RE and the DSI are fairly independent of the time resolution of the precipitation data, thereby allowing objective metrics for model intercomparison and ranking. Regions with different precipitation regimes are classified and characterized in terms of RE and DSI. Comparison of different land observational datasets reveals substantial difference in their local representation of seasonality. It is shown that two-dimensional maps of RE provide an easy way to compare rainfall seasonality from various datasets and to determine areas of interest. Models participating to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project platform, Phase 5, consistently overestimate the RE over tropical Latin America and underestimate it in West Africa, western Mexico and East Asia. It is demonstrated that positive RE biases in a general circulation model are associated with excessively peaked monthly precipitation fractions, too large during the wet months and too small in the months preceding and following the wet season; negative biases are instead due, in most cases, to an excess of rainfall during the premonsoonal months.

Subtropical high predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions.

PubMed

Wang, Bin; Xiang, Baoqiang; Lee, June-Yi

2013-02-19

Monsoon rainfall and tropical storms (TSs) impose great impacts on society, yet their seasonal predictions are far from successful. The western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) is a prime circulation system affecting East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and western North Pacific TS activities, but the sources of its variability and predictability have not been established. Here we show that the WPSH variation faithfully represents fluctuations of EASM strength (r = -0.92), the total TS days over the subtropical western North Pacific (r = -0.81), and the total number of TSs impacting East Asian coasts (r = -0.76) during 1979-2009. Our numerical experiment results establish that the WPSH variation is primarily controlled by central Pacific cooling/warming and a positive atmosphere-ocean feedback between the WPSH and the Indo-Pacific warm pool oceans. With a physically based empirical model and the state-of-the-art dynamical models, we demonstrate that the WPSH is highly predictable; this predictability creates a promising way for prediction of monsoon and TS. The predictions using the WPSH predictability not only yields substantially improved skills in prediction of the EASM rainfall, but also enables skillful prediction of the TS activities that the current dynamical models fail. Our findings reveal that positive WPSH-ocean interaction can provide a source of climate predictability and highlight the importance of subtropical dynamics in understanding monsoon and TS predictability.

Subtropical High predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions

PubMed Central

Wang, Bin; Xiang, Baoqiang; Lee, June-Yi

2013-01-01

Monsoon rainfall and tropical storms (TSs) impose great impacts on society, yet their seasonal predictions are far from successful. The western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) is a prime circulation system affecting East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and western North Pacific TS activities, but the sources of its variability and predictability have not been established. Here we show that the WPSH variation faithfully represents fluctuations of EASM strength (r = –0.92), the total TS days over the subtropical western North Pacific (r = –0.81), and the total number of TSs impacting East Asian coasts (r = –0.76) during 1979–2009. Our numerical experiment results establish that the WPSH variation is primarily controlled by central Pacific cooling/warming and a positive atmosphere-ocean feedback between the WPSH and the Indo-Pacific warm pool oceans. With a physically based empirical model and the state-of-the-art dynamical models, we demonstrate that the WPSH is highly predictable; this predictability creates a promising way for prediction of monsoon and TS. The predictions using the WPSH predictability not only yields substantially improved skills in prediction of the EASM rainfall, but also enables skillful prediction of the TS activities that the current dynamical models fail. Our findings reveal that positive WPSH–ocean interaction can provide a source of climate predictability and highlight the importance of subtropical dynamics in understanding monsoon and TS predictability. PMID:23341624

Exploring Pacific Climate Variability and Its Impacts on East African Water Resources and Food Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Hoerling, M. P.; Hoell, A.; Liebmann, B.; Verdin, J. P.; Eilerts, G.

2014-12-01

In 8 out the past 15 boreal springs (1999, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2013), substantial parts of eastern East Africa experienced very low boreal spring rains. These rainfall deficits have triggered widespread food insecurity, and even contributed to the outbreak of famine conditions in Somalia in 2011. At both seasonal and decadal time scales, new science supported by the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network seeks to understand the mechanisms producing these droughts. We present research suggesting that the ultimate and proximate causes of these increases in aridity are i) stronger equatorial Pacific SST gradients and ii) associated increases in the strength of the Indo-Pacific Walker circulation. Using observations and new modeling ensembles, we explore the relative contributions of Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) and global warming under warm and cold east Pacific Ocean states. This question is addressed in two ways: by using atmospheric GCMs forced with full and ENSO-only SSTs, and ii) by decomposing coupled ocean-atmosphere climate simulations into PDV and non-PDV components. These analyses allow us to explore the Walker circulation's sensitivity to climate change under various PDV states, and inform a tentative bracketing of 2030 climate conditions. We conclude by discussing links to East African development. Regions of high rainfall sensitivity are delineated and intersected with recent changes in population and land cover/land use. The interaction of elevation and climate is shown to create climatically secure regions that are likely to remain viable even under drier and warmer conditions; such regions may be logical targets for agricultural intensification. Conversely, arid low elevation regions are likely to experience substantial temperature impacts. Continued expansion into these areas may effectively create more 'drought' even if rainfall increases.

Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

2018-03-01

Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

Performance of ICTP's RegCM4 in Simulating the Rainfall Characteristics over the CORDEX-SEA Domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neng Liew, Ju; Tangang, Fredolin; Tieh Ngai, Sheau; Chung, Jing Xiang; Narisma, Gemma; Cruz, Faye Abigail; Phan Tan, Van; Thanh, Ngo-Duc; Santisirisomboon, Jerasron; Milindalekha, Jaruthat; Singhruck, Patama; Gunawan, Dodo; Satyaningsih, Ratna; Aldrian, Edvin

2015-04-01

The performance of the RegCM4 in simulating rainfall variations over the Southeast Asia regions was examined. Different combinations of six deep convective parameterization schemes, namely i) Grell scheme with Arakawa-Schubert closure assumption, ii) Grell scheme with Fritch-Chappel closure assumption, iii) Emanuel MIT scheme, iv) mixed scheme with Emanuel MIT scheme over the Ocean and the Grell scheme over the land, v) mixed scheme with Grell scheme over the land and Emanuel MIT scheme over the ocean and (vi) Kuo scheme, and three ocean flux treatments were tested. In order to account for uncertainties among the observation products, four different gridded rainfall products were used for comparison. The simulated climate is generally drier over the equatorial regions and slightly wetter over the mainland Indo-China compare to the observation. However, simulation with MIT cumulus scheme used over the land area consistently produces large amplitude of positive rainfall biases, although it simulates more realistic annual rainfall variations. The simulations are found less sensitive to treatment of ocean fluxes. Although the simulations produced the rainfall climatology well, all of them simulated much stronger interannual variability compare to that of the observed. Nevertheless, the time evolution of the inter-annual variations was well reproduced particularly over the eastern part of maritime continent. Over the mainland Southeast Asia (SEA), unrealistic rainfall anomalies processes were simulated. The lacking of summer season air-sea interaction results in strong oceanic forcings over the regions, leading to positive rainfall anomalies during years with warm ocean temperature anomalies. This incurs much stronger atmospheric forcings on the land surface processes compare to that of the observed. A score ranking system was designed to rank the simulations according to their performance in reproducing different aspects of rainfall characteristics. The result suggests that the simulation with Emanuel MIT convective scheme and BATs land surface scheme produces better collective performance compare to the rest of the simulations.

Possible shift in the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship under future global warming

PubMed Central

Azad, Sarita; Rajeevan, M.

2016-01-01

EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon rainfall are known to have an inverse relationship, which we have observed in the rainfall spectrum exhibiting a spectral dip in 3–5 y period band. It is well documented that El Nino events are known to be associated with deficit rainfall. Our analysis reveals that this spectral dip (3–5 y) is likely to shift to shorter periods (2.5–3 y) in future, suggesting a possible shift in the relationship between ENSO and monsoon rainfall. Spectral analysis of future climate projections by 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5) models are employed in order to corroborate our findings. Change in spectral dip speculates early occurrence of drought events in future due to multiple factors of global warming. PMID:26837459

Relating tree growth to rainfall in Bolivian rain forests: a test for six species using tree ring analysis.

PubMed

Brienen, Roel J W; Zuidema, Pieter A

2005-11-01

Many tropical regions show one distinct dry season. Often, this seasonality induces cambial dormancy of trees, particularly if these belong to deciduous species. This will often lead to the formation of annual rings. The aim of this study was to determine whether tree species in the Bolivian Amazon region form annual rings and to study the influence of the total amount and seasonal distribution of rainfall on diameter growth. Ring widths were measured on stem discs of a total of 154 trees belonging to six rain forest species. By correlating ring width and monthly rainfall data we proved the annual character of the tree rings for four of our study species. For two other species the annual character was proved by counting rings on trees of known age and by radiocarbon dating. The results of the climate-growth analysis show a positive relationship between tree growth and rainfall in certain periods of the year, indicating that rainfall plays a major role in tree growth. Three species showed a strong relationship with rainfall at the beginning of the rainy season, while one species is most sensitive to the rainfall at the end of the previous growing season. These results clearly demonstrate that tree ring analysis can be successfully applied in the tropics and that it is a promising method for various research disciplines.

[Comparative evaluation of heat state in workers exposed to heating microclimate during cold and warm seasons].

PubMed

Afanas'eva, R F; Prokopenko, L V; Kiladze, N A; Konstantinov, E I

2009-01-01

The authors demonstrated differences in heat state among workers exposed to heating microclimate during cold and warm seasons. Same external thermal load in cold season induces more humidity loss, lower weighted average skin temperature, higher pulse rate, increased systolic and diastolic blood pressure. With that, heat discomfort was more in cold season, than in warm one, this necessitates decrease of thermal load in cold season vs. the warm one.

Species biogeography predicts drought responses in a seasonally dry tropical forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, N.; Powers, J. S.; Vargas, G.; Xu, X.; Smith, C. M.; Brodribb, T.; Werden, L. K.; Becknell, J.; Medvigy, D.

2017-12-01

The timing, distribution, and amount of rainfall in the seasonal tropics have shifted in recent years, with consequences for seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF). SDTF are sensitive to changing rainfall regimes and drought conditions, but sensitivity to drought varies substantially across species. One potential explanation of species differences is that species that experience dry conditions more frequently throughout their range will be better able to cope with drought than species from wetter climates, because species from drier climates will be better adapted to drought. An El-Niño induced drought in 2015 presented an opportunity to assess species-level differences in mortality in SDTF, and to ask whether the ranges of rainfall conditions species experience and the average rainfall regimes in species' ranges predict differences in mortality rates in Costa Rican SDTF. We used field plot data from northwest Costa Rica to determine species' level mortality rates. Mortality rates ranged substantially across species, with some species having no dead individuals to as high as 50% mortality. To quantify rainfall conditions across species' ranges, we used species occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, and rainfall data from the Chelsa climate dataset. We found that while the average and range of mean annual rainfall across species ranges did not predict drought-induced mortality in the field plots, across-range averages of the seasonality index, a measure of rainfall seasonality, was strongly correlated with species-level drought mortality (r = -0.62, p < 0.05), with species from more strongly seasonal climates experiencing less severe drought mortality. Furthermore, we found that the seasonality index was a stronger predictor of mortality than any individual functional trait we considered. This result shows that species' biogeography may be an important factor for how species will respond to future drought, and may be a more integrative predictor than individual functional traits.

[Impact of seasons, years El Nino/La Nina and rainfalls on stroke-related morbidity and mortality in Kinshasa].

PubMed

Kintoki Mbala, F; Longo-Mbenza, B; Mbungu Fuele, S; Zola, N; Motebang, D; Nakin, V; Lueme Lokotola, C; Simbarashe, N; Nge Okwe, A

2016-02-01

The significant impact of seasonality and climate change on stroke-related morbidity and mortality is well established, however, some findings on this issue are conflicting. The objective was to determine the impact of gender, age, season, year of admission, temperature, rainfall and El Nino phenomenon on ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes and fatal cases of stroke. The study was carried out at the teaching hospital of Kinshasa, DRC, between January 1998 and December 2004. Rainy and dry seasons, elevated temperatures, indices of rainfalls El Nino years 1998, 2002 and 2004, but La Nina years 1999-2000 and neutral/normal years 2001 and 2003 were defined. Among 470 incident strokes, 34.5% of victims (n=162) died. Traditional seasons (small dry season, small rainy season, great dry season, great rainy season) and temperatures did not significantly (P>0.005) impact on stroke incidence. However, there was a positive association between the decrease in rainfall, El Nino, and incident ischemic strokes, but a significant positive association between the increase in rainfall, La Nina, and incident hemorrhagic strokes. Using logistic regression analysis, age ≥ 60 years (OR: 1.7, 95% CI: 1.2-2.5; P=0.018) and El Nino years (OR: 2, 95% CI: 1.2-3.3; P=0.009) were identified as the independent predictors of fatal strokes. Early warning systems should be developed to predict the impact of seasons and climate variability on stroke morbidity and mortality. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Predictability of Seasonal Rainfall over the Greater Horn of Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngaina, J. N.

2016-12-01

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a primary mode of climate variability in the Greater of Africa (GHA). The expected impacts of climate variability and change on water, agriculture, and food resources in GHA underscore the importance of reliable and accurate seasonal climate predictions. The study evaluated different model selection criteria which included the Coefficient of determination (R2), Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and the Fisher information approximation (FIA). A forecast scheme based on the optimal model was developed to predict the October-November-December (OND) and March-April-May (MAM) rainfall. The predictability of GHA rainfall based on ENSO was quantified based on composite analysis, correlations and contingency tables. A test for field-significance considering the properties of finiteness and interdependence of the spatial grid was applied to avoid correlations by chance. The study identified FIA as the optimal model selection criterion. However, complex model selection criteria (FIA followed by BIC) performed better compared to simple approach (R2 and AIC). Notably, operational seasonal rainfall predictions over the GHA makes of simple model selection procedures e.g. R2. Rainfall is modestly predictable based on ENSO during OND and MAM seasons. El Nino typically leads to wetter conditions during OND and drier conditions during MAM. The correlations of ENSO indices with rainfall are statistically significant for OND and MAM seasons. Analysis based on contingency tables shows higher predictability of OND rainfall with the use of ENSO indices derived from the Pacific and Indian Oceans sea surfaces showing significant improvement during OND season. The predictability based on ENSO for OND rainfall is robust on a decadal scale compared to MAM. An ENSO-based scheme based on an optimal model selection criterion can thus provide skillful rainfall predictions over GHA. This study concludes that the negative phase of ENSO (La Niña) leads to dry conditions while the positive phase of ENSO (El Niño) anticipates enhanced wet conditions

Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei

2018-05-01

The widely used design storms in urban drainage networks has different drawbacks. One of them is that the shape of the rainfall temporal pattern is fixed regardless of climate change. However, previous studies have shown that the temporal pattern may scale with temperature due to climate change, which consequently affects peak flow. Thus, in addition to the scaling of the rainfall volume, the scaling relationship for the rainfall temporal pattern with temperature needs to be investigated by deriving the scaling values for each fraction within storm events, which is lacking in many parts of the world including the UK. Therefore, this study analysed rainfall data from 28 gauges close to the study area with a 15-min resolution as well as the daily temperature data. It was found that, at warmer temperatures, the rainfall temporal pattern becomes less uniform, with more intensive peak rainfall during higher intensive times and weaker rainfall during less intensive times. This is the case for storms with and without seasonal separations. In addition, the scaling values for both the rainfall volume and the rainfall fractions (i.e. each segment of rainfall temporal pattern) for the summer season were found to be higher than the corresponding results for the winter season. Applying the derived scaling values for the temporal pattern of the summer season in a hydrodynamic sewer network model produced high percentage change of peak flow between the current and future climate. This study on the scaling of rainfall fractions is the first in the UK, and its findings are of importance to modellers and designers of sewer systems because it can provide more robust scenarios for flooding mitigation in urban areas.

Prediction of rainfall anomalies during the dry to wet transition season over the Southern Amazonia using machine learning tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, X.; Zhang, K.; Zhuang, Y.; Fu, R.; Hong, Y.

2017-12-01

Seasonal prediction of rainfall during the dry-to-wet transition season in austral spring (September-November) over southern Amazonia is central for improving planting crops and fire mitigation in that region. Previous studies have identified the key large-scale atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamics pre-conditions during the dry season (June-August) that influence the rainfall anomalies during the dry to wet transition season over Southern Amazonia. Based on these key pre-conditions during dry season, we have evaluated several statistical models and developed a Neural Network based statistical prediction system to predict rainfall during the dry to wet transition for Southern Amazonia (5-15°S, 50-70°W). Multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) Analysis is applied to the following four fields during JJA from the ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) spanning from year 1979 to 2015: geopotential height at 200 hPa, surface relative humidity, convective inhibition energy (CIN) index and convective available potential energy (CAPE), to filter out noise and highlight the most coherent spatial and temporal variations. The first 10 EOF modes are retained for inputs to the statistical models, accounting for at least 70% of the total variance in the predictor fields. We have tested several linear and non-linear statistical methods. While the regularized Ridge Regression and Lasso Regression can generally capture the spatial pattern and magnitude of rainfall anomalies, we found that that Neural Network performs best with an accuracy greater than 80%, as expected from the non-linear dependence of the rainfall on the large-scale atmospheric thermodynamic conditions and circulation. Further tests of various prediction skill metrics and hindcasts also suggest this Neural Network prediction approach can significantly improve seasonal prediction skill than the dynamic predictions and regression based statistical predictions. Thus, this statistical prediction system could have shown potential to improve real-time seasonal rainfall predictions in the future.

Declining Global Per Capita Agricultural Production and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Funk, Chris C.; Brown, Molly E.

2009-01-01

Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that was grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be controlled by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices, and policies. In this paper we discuss several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia, and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14 percent between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21 st century food availability by disrupting Indian Ocean moisture transports and tilting the 21 st century climate toward a more El Nino-like state. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced main growing season rainfall along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, we present an analysis of emerging threats to global food security.

Declining global per capita agricultural production and warming oceans threaten food security

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Brown, Molly E.

2009-01-01

Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that is grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be determined by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices and policies. This paper discusses several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14% between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21st century food availability in some countries by disrupting moisture transports and bringing down dry air over crop growing areas. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced rainfall during the main growing season along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, this study presents an analysis of emerging threats to global food security.

Predicting watershed acidification under alternate rainfall conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huntington, T.G.

1996-01-01

The effect of alternate rainfall scenarios on acidification of a forested watershed subjected to chronic acidic deposition was assessed using the model of acidification of groundwater in catchments (MAGIC). The model was calibrated at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed, near Atlanta, Georgia, U.S.A. using measured soil properties, wet and dry deposition, and modeled hydrologic routing. Model forecast simulations were evaluated to compare alternate temporal averaging of rainfall inputs and variations in rainfall amount and seasonal distribution. Soil water alkalinity was predicted to decrease to substantially lower concentrations under lower rainfall compared with current or higher rainfall conditions. Soil water alkalinity was also predicted to decrease to lower levels when the majority of rainfall occurred during the growing season compared with other rainfall distributions. Changes in rainfall distribution that result in decreases in net soil water flux will temporarily delay acidification. Ultimately, however, decreased soil water flux will result in larger increases in soil- adsorbed sulfur and soil-water sulfate concentrations and decreases in alkalinity when compared to higher water flux conditions. Potential climate change resulting in significant changes in rainfall amounts, seasonal distribution of rainfall, or evapotranspiration will change net soil water flux and, consequently, will affect the dynamics of the acidification response to continued sulfate loading.

Spatial structure of monthly rainfall measurements average over 25 years and trends of the hourly variability of a current rainy day in Rwanda.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nduwayezu, Emmanuel; Kanevski, Mikhail; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2013-04-01

Climate plays a vital role in a wide range of socio-economic activities of most nations particularly of developing countries. Climate (rainfall) plays a central role in agriculture which is the main stay of the Rwandan economy and community livelihood and activities. The majority of the Rwandan population (81,1% in 2010) relies on rain fed agriculture for their livelihoods, and the impacts of variability in climate patterns are already being felt. Climate-related events like heavy rainfall or too little rainfall are becoming more frequent and are impacting on human wellbeing.The torrential rainfall that occurs every year in Rwanda could disturb the circulation for many days, damages houses, infrastructures and causes heavy economic losses and deaths. Four rainfall seasons have been identified, corresponding to the four thermal Earth ones in the south hemisphere: the normal season (summer), the rainy season (autumn), the dry season (winter) and the normo-rainy season (spring). Globally, the spatial rainfall decreasing from West to East, especially in October (spring) and February (summer) suggests an «Atlantic monsoon influence» while the homogeneous spatial rainfall distribution suggests an «Inter-tropical front» mechanism. What is the hourly variability in this mountainous area? Is there any correlation with the identified zones of the monthly average series (from 1965 to 1990 established by the Rwandan meteorological services)? Where could we have hazards with several consecutive rainy days (using forecasted datas from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute)? Spatio-temporal analysis allows for identifying and explaining large-scale anomalies which are useful for understanding hydrological characteristics and subsequently predicting these hydrological events. The objective of our current research (Rainfall variability) is to proceed to an evaluation of the potential rainfall risk by applying advanced geospatial modelling tools in Rwanda: geostatistical predictions and simulations, machine learning algorithm (different types of neural networks) and GIS. Hybrid models - mixing geostatistics and machine learning, will be applied to study spatial non-stationarity of rainfall fields. The research will include rainfalls variability mapping and probabilistic analyses of extreme events. Key words: rainfall variability, Rwanda, extreme event, model, mapping, geostatistics.

Mimicking a semi-arid tropical environment achieves dormancy alleviation for seeds of Australian native Goodeniaceae and Asteraceae.

PubMed

Hoyle, G L; Daws, M I; Steadman, K J; Adkins, S W

2008-04-01

Seed physiological dormancy (PD) limits the use and conservation of some of Queensland's (Qld) native forb species. It was hypothesised that optimum dormancy-alleviating treatments would reflect environmental conditions that seeds experience in situ, and this premise was tested for PD seeds of four species native to south-west Qld. High temperatures and increased rainfall during summer are characteristic of this semi-arid tropical environment. Ex situ treatments were designed to mimic conditions that seeds dispersed in spring experience during the summer months before germinating in cooler autumn temperatures. Seeds received between 4 and 20 weeks of a dry after-ripening (DAR), warm stratification or dry/wet cycling treatment (DAR interspersed with short periods of warm stratification), in darkness, before being transferred to germination test conditions. In addition, natural dormancy alleviation of one of the Goodeniaceae species was investigated in situ. Dry/wet cycling resulted in higher levels of germination of Actinobole uliginosum (Asteraceae), Goodenia cycloptera and Velleia glabrata (Goodeniaceae) when compared with constant DAR or stratification, while Goodenia fascicularis (Goodeniaceae) responded better to short durations of warm stratification. Long durations of DAR partially alleviated PD of A. uliginosum; however, stratification induced and maintained dormancy of this species. Modifications to the dry/wet cycling treatment and germination test conditions based on data collected in situ enabled germination of G. cycloptera and V. glabrata to be further improved. Treatments designed using temperature, relative humidity and rainfall data for the period between natural seed dispersal and germination can successfully alleviate PD. Differences between the four species in conditions that resulted in maximum germination indicate that, in addition to responding to broad-scale climate patterns, species may be adapted to particular microsites and/or seasonal conditions.

Mimicking a Semi-arid Tropical Environment Achieves Dormancy Alleviation for Seeds of Australian Native Goodeniaceae and Asteraceae

PubMed Central

Hoyle, G. L.; Daws, M. I.; Steadman, K. J.; Adkins, S.W.

2008-01-01

Background and Aims Seed physiological dormancy (PD) limits the use and conservation of some of Queensland's (Qld) native forb species. It was hypothesised that optimum dormancy-alleviating treatments would reflect environmental conditions that seeds experience in situ, and this premise was tested for PD seeds of four species native to south-west Qld. Methods High temperatures and increased rainfall during summer are characteristic of this semi-arid tropical environment. Ex situ treatments were designed to mimic conditions that seeds dispersed in spring experience during the summer months before germinating in cooler autumn temperatures. Seeds received between 4 and 20 weeks of a dry after-ripening (DAR), warm stratification or dry/wet cycling treatment (DAR interspersed with short periods of warm stratification), in darkness, before being transferred to germination test conditions. In addition, natural dormancy alleviation of one of the Goodeniaceae species was investigated in situ. Key Results Dry/wet cycling resulted in higher levels of germination of Actinobole uliginosum (Asteraceae), Goodenia cycloptera and Velleia glabrata (Goodeniaceae) when compared with constant DAR or stratification, while Goodenia fascicularis (Goodeniaceae) responded better to short durations of warm stratification. Long durations of DAR partially alleviated PD of A. uliginosum; however, stratification induced and maintained dormancy of this species. Modifications to the dry/wet cycling treatment and germination test conditions based on data collected in situ enabled germination of G. cycloptera and V. glabrata to be further improved. Conclusions Treatments designed using temperature, relative humidity and rainfall data for the period between natural seed dispersal and germination can successfully alleviate PD. Differences between the four species in conditions that resulted in maximum germination indicate that, in addition to responding to broad-scale climate patterns, species may be adapted to particular microsites and/or seasonal conditions. PMID:18245107

Climatic effects on mosquito abundance in Mediterranean wetlands

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases is highly controversial. One of the principal points of debate is whether or not climate influences mosquito abundance, a key factor in disease transmission. Methods To test this hypothesis, we analysed ten years of data (2003–2012) from biweekly surveys to assess inter-annual and seasonal relationships between the abundance of seven mosquito species known to be pathogen vectors (West Nile virus, Usutu virus, dirofilariasis and Plasmodium sp.) and several climatic variables in two wetlands in SW Spain. Results Within-season abundance patterns were related to climatic variables (i.e. temperature, rainfall, tide heights, relative humidity and photoperiod) that varied according to the mosquito species in question. Rainfall during winter months was positively related to Culex pipiens and Ochlerotatus detritus annual abundances. Annual maximum temperatures were non-linearly related to annual Cx. pipiens abundance, while annual mean temperatures were positively related to annual Ochlerotatus caspius abundance. Finally, we modelled shifts in mosquito abundances using the A2 and B2 temperature and rainfall climate change scenarios for the period 2011–2100. While Oc. caspius, an important anthropophilic species, may increase in abundance, no changes are expected for Cx. pipiens or the salt-marsh mosquito Oc. detritus. Conclusions Our results highlight that the effects of climate are species-specific, place-specific and non-linear and that linear approaches will therefore overestimate the effect of climate change on mosquito abundances at high temperatures. Climate warming does not necessarily lead to an increase in mosquito abundance in natural Mediterranean wetlands and will affect, above all, species such as Oc. caspius whose numbers are not closely linked to rainfall and are influenced, rather, by local tidal patterns and temperatures. The final impact of changes in vector abundance on disease frequency will depend on the direct and indirect effects of climate and other parameters related to pathogen amplification and spillover on humans and other vertebrates. PMID:25030527

Analysis of spatial and temporal rainfall trends in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liuzzo, Lorena; Bono, Enrico; Sammartano, Vincenzo; Freni, Gabriele

2016-10-01

Precipitation patterns worldwide are changing under the effects of global warming. The impacts of these changes could dramatically affect the hydrological cycle and, consequently, the availability of water resources. In order to improve the quality and reliability of forecasting models, it is important to analyse historical precipitation data to account for possible future changes. For these reasons, a large number of studies have recently been carried out with the aim of investigating the existence of statistically significant trends in precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, the existence of statistically significant trends in rainfall from observational datasets, which were measured by 245 rain gauges over Sicily (Italy) during the 1921-2012 period, was investigated. Annual, seasonal and monthly time series were examined using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical test to detect statistically significant trends at local and regional scales, and their significance levels were assessed. Prior to the application of the Mann-Kendall test, the historical dataset was completed using a geostatistical spatial interpolation technique, the residual ordinary kriging, and then processed to remove the influence of serial correlation on the test results, applying the procedure of trend-free pre-whitening. Once the trends at each site were identified, the spatial patterns of the detected trends were examined using spatial interpolation techniques. Furthermore, focusing on the 30 years from 1981 to 2012, the trend analysis was repeated with the aim of detecting short-term trends or possible changes in the direction of the trends. Finally, the effect of climate change on the seasonal distribution of rainfall during the year was investigated by analysing the trend in the precipitation concentration index. The application of the Mann-Kendall test to the rainfall data provided evidence of a general decrease in precipitation in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period. Downward trends frequently occurred during the autumn and winter months. However, an increase in total annual precipitation was detected during the period from 1981 to 2012.

An annually-resolved stalagmite tropical cyclone reconstruction from Belize reveals a northward shift in North Atlantic storm track position since 1550 C.E.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldini, Lisa; Baldini, James; McElwaine, Jim; Frappier, Amy; Asmerom, Yemane; Liu, Kam-biu; Prufer, Keith; Ridley, Harriet; Polyak, Victor; Kennett, Douglas; Macpherson, Colin; Aquino, Valorie; Awe, Jaime; Breitenbach, Sebastian

2017-04-01

Hurricanes are large-scale atmospheric phenomena that typically produce high volume, high intensity, and isotopically depleted rainfall. Such storms have the ability to alter the isotopic composition of the groundwater reservoir, imparting a uniquely negative isotopic fingerprint to actively growing stalagmites. In regions influenced by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), large volumes of rainfall delivered during the wet season can obscure the tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall proxy signal. Coupled annually resolved carbon and oxygen isotope ratios were used to isolate the low δ18O TC signal from the isotopically more enriched background rainfall associated with seasonal ITCZ migration. The new composite stalagmite proxy record yielded a 99.7% significant correlation with the western Caribbean-filtered HURDAT2 database over the instrumental record based on a non-parametric bootstrap approach. The new annually-resolved TC reconstruction for the western Caribbean spans the last 450 years and reveals a peak in western Caribbean TCs at 1650 C.E. and a gradual decline until a marked decrease is observed at the start of the Industrial Era. Comparison with documentary records of TC occurrence along the US eastern seaboard reveals a clear pattern of north-eastward TC track migration since peak Little Ice Age cooling. This pattern is consistent with natural warming since the Little Ice Age temperature minimum and with anthropogenic influences after industrialisation. Satellite observations reveal Hadley cell expansion has occurred over the last three decades and modelling studies implicate rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations as the driver. Our results suggest that Hadley cell position and width is a major control on hurricane track position and that future emissions scenarios (continued rising greenhouse gases coupled with decreasing Northern Hemisphere aerosol emissions) are likely to increase storm risk to the north-eastern USA.

Vegetation, substrate, and eolian sediment transport at Teesto Wash, Navajo Nation, 2009-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Draut, Amy E.; Redsteer, Margaret Hiza; Amoroso, Lee

2012-01-01

On the Navajo Nation, southwestern United States, warming temperatures and recent drought have increased eolian (windblown) sediment mobility such that large, migrating sand dunes affect grazing lands, housing, and road access. We present an assessment of seasonal variations in sand transport, mobility, and ground cover (vegetation and substrate) within a 0.2-km2 study area near Teesto Wash, southern Navajo Nation, as part of a multiyear study measuring the effects of drought on landscape stability. Sand mobility in the study area decreased substantially as one year (2010) with near-normal monsoon rainfall somewhat abated a decade-long drought, temporarily doubling vegetation cover. The invasive annual plant Russian thistle (Salsola sp.), in particular, thrived after the monsoon rains of 2010. Vegetation that grew during that year with adequate rain died off rapidly during drier conditions in 2011 and 2012, and the proportion of bare, open sand area increased steadily after summer 2010. We infer that isolated seasonal increases in rainfall will not improve landscape stability in the long term because sustained increase in perennial plants, which are more effective than annual plants at stabilizing sand against wind erosion, requires multiple consecutive seasons of adequate rain. On the basis of climate projections, a warmer, drier climate and potentially enhanced sediment supply from ephemeral washes may further increase eolian sediment transport and dune activity, worsening the present challenges to people living in this region. Connections between climate, vegetation cover, and eolian sediment erodibility in this region also are highly relevant for studies in other regions worldwide with similar environmental characteristics.

Response of African Elephants (Loxodonta africana) to Seasonal Changes in Rainfall

PubMed Central

Garstang, Michael; Davis, Robert E.; Leggett, Keith; Frauenfeld, Oliver W.; Greco, Steven; Zipser, Edward; Peterson, Michael

2014-01-01

The factors that trigger sudden, seasonal movements of elephants are uncertain. We hypothesized that savannah elephant movements at the end of the dry season may be a response to their detection of distant thunderstorms. Nine elephants carrying Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers were tracked over seven years in the extremely dry and rugged region of northwestern Namibia. The transition date from dry to wet season conditions was determined annually from surface- and satellite-derived rainfall. The distance, location, and timing of rain events relative to the elephants were determined using the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite precipitation observations. Behavioral Change Point Analysis (BCPA) was applied to four of these seven years demonstrating a response in movement of these elephants to intra- and inter-seasonal occurrences of rainfall. Statistically significant changes in movement were found prior to or near the time of onset of the wet season and before the occurrence of wet episodes within the dry season, although the characteristics of the movement changes are not consistent between elephants and years. Elephants in overlapping ranges, but following separate tracks, exhibited statistically valid non-random near-simultaneous changes in movements when rainfall was occurring more than 100 km from their location. While the environmental trigger that causes these excursions remains uncertain, rain-system generated infrasound, which can travel such distances and be detected by elephants, is a possible trigger for such changes in movement. PMID:25299514

Response of African elephants (Loxodonta africana) to seasonal changes in rainfall.

PubMed

Garstang, Michael; Davis, Robert E; Leggett, Keith; Frauenfeld, Oliver W; Greco, Steven; Zipser, Edward; Peterson, Michael

2014-01-01

The factors that trigger sudden, seasonal movements of elephants are uncertain. We hypothesized that savannah elephant movements at the end of the dry season may be a response to their detection of distant thunderstorms. Nine elephants carrying Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers were tracked over seven years in the extremely dry and rugged region of northwestern Namibia. The transition date from dry to wet season conditions was determined annually from surface- and satellite-derived rainfall. The distance, location, and timing of rain events relative to the elephants were determined using the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite precipitation observations. Behavioral Change Point Analysis (BCPA) was applied to four of these seven years demonstrating a response in movement of these elephants to intra- and inter-seasonal occurrences of rainfall. Statistically significant changes in movement were found prior to or near the time of onset of the wet season and before the occurrence of wet episodes within the dry season, although the characteristics of the movement changes are not consistent between elephants and years. Elephants in overlapping ranges, but following separate tracks, exhibited statistically valid non-random near-simultaneous changes in movements when rainfall was occurring more than 100 km from their location. While the environmental trigger that causes these excursions remains uncertain, rain-system generated infrasound, which can travel such distances and be detected by elephants, is a possible trigger for such changes in movement.

Drying projection over western maritime continent during Southwest and Northeast monsoon seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kartika Lestari, R.

2017-04-01

In the maritime continent, the precipitation variability is large and recently, this region experiences longer dry season and more number of severe drought events that are threatening the human life, such as, water supply for daily life and agriculture, and unhealthy air quality due to the increased number of wildfires. Global warming has been known to contribute to the rainfall anomalies around the world, and present study investigate the extent to which the drying conditions are going to be happened in 21st century over western part of the maritime continent (WMC), where the population is much larger than the eastern part, during both active Southwest (SW) and Northeast (NE) monsoon seasons. A future change in the precipitation over WMC is suggested from our analyses of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. In addition to CMIP5, we analyse the downscaled data of nine selected CMIP5 models to examine if there is modification in the drying projection when higher resolution data are used. While the north and south of equator show out of phase in the precipitation change, the region around equator shows decreased precipitation during both the SW monsoon in June-July-August-September (JJAS) and the peak of NE monsoon in February (FEB). The drying projection is robustly shown in FEB when Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shift to the southern hemisphere, but the same robustness is not shown in JJAS when the monsoon over South China Sea is active. The detail results, including the mechanisms and the impacts of tropical climate features (such as, warming Pacific Ocean, monsoon, ITCZ) that drive the drying projection, and the possible reasons causing different degree in the robustness between two seasons, will be shown in the presentation.

The changing impact of snow conditions and refreezing on the mass balance of an idealized Svalbard glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Pelt, Ward; Pohjola, Veijo; Reijmer, Carleen

2016-11-01

Glacier surface melt and runoff depend strongly on seasonal and perennial snow (firn) conditions. Not only does the presence of snow and firn directly affect melt rates by reflecting solar radiation, it may also act as a buffer against mass loss by storing melt water in refrozen or liquid form. In Svalbard, ongoing and projected amplified climate change with respect to the global mean change has severe implications for the state of snow and firn and its impact on glacier mass loss. Model experiments with a coupled surface energy balance - firn model were done to investigate the surface mass balance and the changing role of snow and firn conditions for an idealized Svalbard glacier. A climate forcing for the past, present and future (1984-2104) is constructed, based on observational data from Svalbard Airport and a seasonally dependent projection scenario. Results illustrate ongoing and future firn degradation in response to an elevational retreat of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of 31 m decade-1. The temperate firn zone is found to retreat and expand, while cold ice in the ablation zone warms considerably. In response to pronounced winter warming and an associated increase in winter rainfall, the current prevalence of refreezing during the melt season gradually shifts to the winter season in a future climate. Sensitivity tests reveal that in a present and future climate the density and thermodynamic structure of Svalbard glaciers are heavily influenced by refreezing. Refreezing acts as a net buffer against mass loss. However, the net mass balance change after refreezing is substantially smaller than the amount of refreezing itself, which can be ascribed to melt-enhancing effects after refreezing, which partly offset the primary mass-retaining effect of refreezing.

River catchment rainfall series analysis using additive Holt-Winters method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puah, Yan Jun; Huang, Yuk Feng; Chua, Kuan Chin; Lee, Teang Shui

2016-03-01

Climate change is receiving more attention from researchers as the frequency of occurrence of severe natural disasters is getting higher. Tropical countries like Malaysia have no distinct four seasons; rainfall has become the popular parameter to assess climate change. Conventional ways that determine rainfall trends can only provide a general result in single direction for the whole study period. In this study, rainfall series were modelled using additive Holt-Winters method to examine the rainfall pattern in Langat River Basin, Malaysia. Nine homogeneous series of more than 25 years data and less than 10% missing data were selected. Goodness of fit of the forecasted models was measured. It was found that seasonal rainfall model forecasts are generally better than the monthly rainfall model forecasts. Three stations in the western region exhibited increasing trend. Rainfall in southern region showed fluctuation. Increasing trends were discovered at stations in the south-eastern region except the seasonal analysis at station 45253. Decreasing trend was found at station 2818110 in the east, while increasing trend was shown at station 44320 that represents the north-eastern region. The accuracies of both rainfall model forecasts were tested using the recorded data of years 2010-2012. Most of the forecasts are acceptable.

Understanding Flood Seasonality and Its Temporal Shifts within the Contiguous United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ye, Sheng; Li, Hong-Yi; Leung, L. Ruby

2017-07-01

Understanding the causes of flood seasonality is critical for better flood management. This study examines the seasonality of annual maximum floods (AMF) and its changes before and after 1980 at over 250 natural catchments across the contiguous United States. Using circular statistics to define a seasonality index, our analysis focuses on the variability of the flood occurrence date. Generally, catchments with more synchronized seasonal water and energy cycles largely inherit their seasonality of AMF from that of annual maximum rainfall (AMR). In contrast, the seasonality of AMF in catchments with loosely synchronized water and energy cycles are more influenced bymore » high antecedent storage, which is responsible for the amplification of the seasonality of AMF over that of AMR. This understanding then effectively explains a statistically significant shift of flood seasonality detected in some catchments in the recent decades. Catchments where the antecedent soil water storage has increased since 1980 exhibit increasing flood seasonality while catchments that have experienced increases in storm rainfall before the floods have shifted towards floods occurring more variably across the seasons. In the eastern catchments, a concurrent widespread increase in event rainfall magnitude and reduced soil water storage have led to a more variable timing of floods. Our findings of the role of antecedent storage and event rainfall on the flood seasonality provide useful insights for understanding future changes in flood seasonality as climate models projected changes in extreme precipitation and aridity over land.« less

The Role of Rainfall Patterns in Seasonal Malaria Transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bomblies, A.

2010-12-01

Seasonal total precipitation is well known to affect malaria transmission because Anopheles mosquitoes depend on standing water for breeding habitat. However, the within-season temporal pattern of the rainfall influences persistence of standing water and thus rainfall patterns also affect mosquito population dynamics. In this talk, I show that intraseasonal rainfall pattern describes 40% of the variance in simulated mosquito abundance in a Niger Sahel village where malaria is endemic but highly seasonal, demonstrating the necessity for detailed distributed hydrology modeling to explain the variance from this important effect. I apply a field validated, high spatial- and temporal-resolution hydrology model coupled with an entomology model. Using synthetic rainfall time series generated using a stationary first-order Markov Chain model, I hold all variables except hourly rainfall constant, thus isolating the contribution of rainfall pattern to variance in mosquito abundance. I further show the utility of hydrology modeling to assess precipitation effects by analyzing collected water. Time-integrated surface area of pools explains 70% of the variance in mosquito abundance, and time-integrated surface area of pools persisting longer than seven days explains 82% of the variance, showing an improved predictive ability when pool persistence is explicitly modeled at high spatio-temporal resolution. I extend this analysis to investigate the impacts of this effect on malaria vector mosquito populations under climate shift scenarios, holding all climate variables except precipitation constant. In these scenarios, rainfall mean and variance change with climatic change, and the modeling approach evaluates the impact of non-stationarity in rainfall and the associated rainfall patterns on expected mosquito activity.

Month-to-month variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in 2016: role of the Indo-Pacific climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdary, Jasti S.; Srinivas, G.; Du, Yan; Gopinath, K.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Singh, Prem

2018-03-01

Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall during 2016 exhibited a prominent month-to-month fluctuations over India, with below normal rainfall in June and August and above normal rainfall in July. The factors determining the month-to-month fluctuations in ISM rainfall during 2016 are investigated with main focus on the Indo-Pacific climatic anomalies. Warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with super El Niño 2015 disappeared by early summer 2016 over the central and eastern Pacific. On the other hand, negative Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) like SST anomaly pattern over the equatorial Indian Ocean and anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific (WNP) are reported in summer 2016 concurrently with decaying El Niño/developing La Niña phase. Observations revealed that the low rainfall over central north India in June is due to moisture divergence caused by the westward extension of ridge corresponding to WNP anticyclone and subsidence induced by local Hadley cell partly related to negative IOD. Low level convergence of southeasterly wind from Bay of Bengal associated with weak WNP anticyclone and northwesterly wind corresponding to anticyclonic circulation over the northwest India remarkably contributed to positive rainfall in July over most of the Indian subcontinent. While reduced rainfall over the Indian subcontinent in August 2016 is associated with the anomalous moisture transport from ISM region to WNP region, in contrast to July, due to local cyclogenesis corroborated by number of tropical cyclones in the WNP. In addition to this, subsidence related to strong convection supported by cyclonic circulation over the WNP also resulted in low rainfall over the ISM region. Coupled General Circulation model sensitivity experiments confirmed that strong convective activities associated with cyclonic circulation over the WNP is primarily responsible for the observed negative ISM rainfall anomalies in August 2016. It is noted that the Indo-Western Pacific circulation anomalies in August 2016 are well predicted when the coupled model is initiated with initial conditions from end of July and beginning of August compared to May. This analysis suggests the importance of the WNP circulation in forcing strong sub-seasonal/month to month rainfall variations over India.

The role of synoptic weather variability in Greenland ice sheet dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, J. M.; Radic, V.

2017-12-01

Much of the large uncertainty in predictions of future global sea level rise is due to our limited understanding of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) motion and its interactions with climate. Over the next century, climate models predict that the GrIS will experience not only gradual warming, but also changes in atmospheric circulation, hydrology, and weather, including a northward shift of the North Atlantic storm track, with greater frequency and intensity of rain storms over the GrIS. Recent studies of GrIS dynamics have focused on the effects of increased seasonal mean meltwater on ice velocities, finding only a modest impact due to compensation by subglacial drainage systems, but subglacial hydraulic theory indicates that variability on shorter timescales is also relevant: short-term surges in meltwater or rainfall can overload drainage systems at rates faster than they can adjust, leading to water pressure spikes and ice acceleration. If the magnitude or frequency of these transient ice accelerations increase substantially as synoptic weather patterns change over the next century, there could be a significant cumulative impact on seasonal mean ice velocities. However, this issue has not been addressed in the literature and represents a major source of uncertainty. In this study, we investigate the role of synoptic weather variability in GrIS dynamics, with the ultimate goal of evaluating the relationships between extreme weather events and ice sheet flow in different seasons and regions of the GrIS. As a first step, we apply the machine learning technique of self-organizing maps to atmospheric reanalysis data to categorize the predominant synoptic weather systems over the GrIS domain, evaluating atmospheric moisture transport and rainfall to assess the impacts of each weather system on GrIS surface hydrology. The preliminary results presented here will be used in conjunction with ice velocity satellite measurements in future work, to identify any correlations between seasonal mean GrIS velocities and the frequency or intensity of storms during the season.

Contrasting patterns of litterfall seasonality and seasonal changes in litter decomposability in a tropical rainforest region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parsons, S. A.; Valdez-Ramirez, V.; Congdon, R. A.; Williams, S. E.

2014-09-01

The seasonality of litter inputs in forests has important implications for understanding ecosystem processes and biogeochemical cycles. We quantified the drivers of seasonality in litterfall and leaf decomposability using plots throughout the Australian wet tropical region. Litter fell mostly in the summer (wet, warm) months in the region, but other peaks occurred throughout the year. Litterfall seasonality was modelled well with the level of deciduousness of the site (plots with more deciduous species had lower seasonality than evergreen plots), temperature (higher seasonality in the uplands), disturbance (lower seasonality with more early secondary species) and soil fertility (higher seasonality with higher N : P/P limitation) (SL total litterfall model 1 = deciduousness + soil N : P + early secondary sp.: r2 = 0.63, n = 30; model 2 = temperature + early secondary sp. + soil N : P: r2 = 0.54, n = 30; SL leaf = temperature + early secondary sp. + rainfall seasonality: r2 = 0.39, n = 30). Leaf litter decomposability was lower in the dry season than in the wet season, driven by higher phenolic concentrations in the dry, with the difference exacerbated particularly by lower dry season moisture. Our results are contrary to the global trend for tropical rainforests; in that seasonality of litterfall input was generally higher in wetter, cooler, evergreen forests, compared to generally drier, warmer, semi-deciduous sites that had more uniform monthly inputs. We consider this due to more diverse litter shedding patterns in semi-deciduous and raingreen rainforest sites, and an important consideration for ecosystem modellers. Seasonal changes in litter quality are likely to have impacts on decomposition and biogeochemical cycles in these forests due to the litter that falls in the dry season being more recalcitrant to decay.

Consequences of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokam Mba, Wilfried; Longandjo, Georges-Noel T.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Bell, Jean-Pierre; James, Rachel; Vondou, Derbetini A.; Haensler, Andreas; Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.; Merlin Guenang, Guy; Djiotang Tchotchou, Angennes Lucie; Kamsu-Tamo, Pierre H.; Takong, Ridick R.; Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Christopher J.; Dosio, Alessandro

2018-05-01

Discriminating climate impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels is particularly important for Central Africa, a vulnerable region where multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to constrain the region’s adaptive capacity. This study uses an ensemble of 25 transient Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the CORDEX initiative, forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, to investigate the potential temperature and precipitation changes in Central Africa corresponding to 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Global climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to drive the RCMs and determine timing of the targeted global warming levels. The regional warming differs over Central Africa between 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Whilst there are large uncertainties associated with projections at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, the 0.5 °C increase in global temperature is associated with larger regional warming response. Compared to changes in temperature, changes in precipitation are more heterogeneous and climate model simulations indicate a lack of consensus across the region, though there is a tendency towards decreasing seasonal precipitation in March–May, and a reduction of consecutive wet days. As a drought indicator, a significant increase in consecutive dry days was found. Consistent changes of maximum 5 day rainfall are also detected between 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C global warming levels.

Statistical evaluation of rainfall time series in concurrence with agriculture and water resources of Ken River basin, Central India (1901-2010)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meshram, Sarita Gajbhiye; Singh, Sudhir Kumar; Meshram, Chandrashekhar; Deo, Ravinesh C.; Ambade, Balram

2017-12-01

Trend analysis of long-term rainfall records can be used to facilitate better agriculture water management decision and climate risk studies. The main objective of this study was to identify the existing trends in the long-term rainfall time series over the period 1901-2010 utilizing 12 hydrological stations located at the Ken River basin (KRB) in Madhya Pradesh, India. To investigate the different trends, the rainfall time series data were divided into annual and seasonal (i.e., pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter season) sub-sets, and a statistical analysis of data using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test and the Sen's slope approach was applied to identify the nature of the existing trends in rainfall series for the Ken River basin. The obtained results were further interpolated with the aid of the Quantum Geographic Information System (GIS) approach employing the inverse distance weighted approach. The results showed that the monsoon and the winter season exhibited a negative trend in rainfall changes over the period of study, and this was true for all stations, although the changes during the pre- and the post-monsoon seasons were less significant. The outcomes of this research study also suggest significant decreases in the seasonal and annual trends of rainfall amounts in the study period. These findings showing a clear signature of climate change impacts on KRB region potentially have implications in terms of climate risk management strategies to be developed during major growing and harvesting seasons and also to aid in the appropriate water resource management strategies that must be implemented in decision-making process.

Fire season and intensity affect shrub recruitment in temperate sclerophyllous woodlands.

PubMed

Knox, K J E; Clarke, P J

2006-10-01

The season in which a fire occurs may regulate plant seedling recruitment because of: (1) the interaction of season and intensity of fire and the temperature requirements for seed release, germination and growth; (2) post-fire rainfall and temperature patterns affecting germination; (3) the interaction of post-fire germination conditions and competition from surrounding vegetation; and (4) the interaction of post-fire germination conditions and seed predators and/or seedling herbivores. This study examined the effects of different fire intensities and fire seasons on the emergence and survival of shrubs representing a range of fire response syndromes from a summer rainfall cool climate region. Replicated experimental burns were conducted in two seasons (spring and autumn) in 2 consecutive years and fuel loads were increased to examine the effects of fire intensity (low intensity and moderate intensity). Post-fire watering treatments partitioned the effects of seasonal temperature from soil moisture. Higher intensity fires resulted in enhanced seedling emergence for hard-seeded species but rarely influenced survival. Spring fires enhanced seedling emergence across all functional groups. Reduced autumn recruitment was related to seasonal temperature inhibiting germination rather than a lack of soil moisture or competition. In Mediterranean-type climate regions, seedling emergence has been related to post-fire rainfall and exposure of seeds to seed predators. We think a similar model may operate in temperate summer rainfall regions where cold-induced dormancy over winter exposes seeds to predators for a longer time and subsequently results in recruitment failure. Our results support the theory that the effect of fire season is more predictable where there are strong seasonal patterns in climate. In this study seasonal temperature rather than rainfall appears to be more influential.

Application of Wavelet Analysis on Variability, Teleconnectivity, and Predictability November-January Taiwan rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

T.; Gan, Y.

2009-04-01

First the wavelet analysis was used to analyze the variability of winter (November-January) rainfall (1974-2006) of Taiwan and seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) in selected domains of the Pacific Ocean. From the scale average wavelet power (SAWP) computed for the seasonal rainfall and seasonal SST, it seems that these data exhibit interannual oscillations at 2-4-year period. Correlations between rainfall and SST SAWP were further estimated. Next the SST in selected sectors of the western Pacific Ocean (around 5°N-30°N, 120°E-150°E) was used as predictors to predict the winter rainfall of Taiwan at one season lead time using an Artificial Neural Network calibrated by Genetic Algorithm (ANN-GA). The ANN-GA was first calibrated using the 1974-1998 data and independently validated using 1999-2005 data. In terms of summary statistics such as the correlation coefficient, root-mean-square errors (RMSE), and Hansen-Kuipers (HK) scores, the seasonal prediction for northern and western Taiwan are generally good for both calibration and validation stages, but not so in some stations located in southeast Taiwan and Central Mountain.

Multiple Satellite Observations of Cloud Cover in Extratropical Cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naud, Catherine M.; Booth, James F.; Posselt, Derek J.; van den Heever, Susan C.

2013-01-01

Using cloud observations from NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer, and CloudSat-CALIPSO, composites of cloud fraction in southern and northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones are obtained for cold and warm seasons between 2006 and 2010, to assess differences between these three data sets, and between summer and winter cyclones. In both hemispheres and seasons, over the open ocean, the cyclone-centered cloud fraction composites agree within 5% across the three data sets, but behind the cold fronts, or over sea ice and land, the differences are much larger. To supplement the data set comparison and learn more about the cyclones, we also examine the differences in cloud fraction between cold and warm season for each data set. The difference in cloud fraction between cold and warm season southern hemisphere cyclones is small for all three data sets, but of the same order of magnitude as the differences between the data sets. The cold-warm season contrast in northern hemisphere cyclone cloud fractions is similar for all three data sets: in the warm sector, the cold season cloud fractions are lower close to the low, but larger on the equator edge than their warm season counterparts. This seasonal contrast in cloud fraction within the cyclones warm sector seems to be related to the seasonal differences in moisture flux within the cyclones. Our analysis suggests that the three different data sets can all be used confidently when studying the warm sector and warm frontal zone of extratropical cyclones but caution should be exerted when studying clouds in the cold sector.

Western Pacific emergent constraint lowers projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Gen; Xie, Shang-Ping; He, Chao; Chen, Zesheng

2017-10-01

The agrarian-based socioeconomic livelihood of densely populated South Asian countries is vulnerable to modest changes in Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall. How the ISM rainfall will evolve is a question of broad scientific and socioeconomic importance. In response to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, climate models commonly project an increase in ISM rainfall. This wetter ISM projection, however, does not consider large model errors in both the mean state and ocean warming pattern. Here we identify a relationship between biases in simulated present climate and future ISM projections in a multi-model ensemble: models with excessive present-day precipitation over the tropical western Pacific tend to project a larger increase in ISM rainfall under GHG forcing because of too strong a negative cloud-radiation feedback on sea surface temperature. The excessive negative feedback suppresses the local ocean surface warming, strengthening ISM rainfall projections via atmospheric circulation. We calibrate the ISM rainfall projections using this `present-future relationship’ and observed western Pacific precipitation. The correction reduces by about 50% of the projected rainfall increase over the broad ISM region. Our study identifies an improved simulation of western Pacific convection as a priority for reliable ISM projections.

A distinction between summer rainy season and summer monsoon season over the Central Highlands of Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngo-Thanh, Huong; Ngo-Duc, Thanh; Nguyen-Hong, Hanh; Baker, Peter; Phan-Van, Tan

2018-05-01

The daily rainfall data at 13 stations over the Central Highlands (CH) Vietnam were collected for the period 1981-2014. Two different sets of criteria using daily observed rainfall and 850 hPa daily reanalysis wind data were applied to determine the onset (retreat) dates of the summer rainy season (RS) and summer monsoon (SM) season, respectively. Over the study period, the mean RS and SM onset dates were April 20 and May 13 with standard deviations of 17.4 and 17.8 days, respectively. The mean RS and SM retreat dates were November 1 and September 30 with standard deviations of 17.9 and 10.2 days, respectively . The year-to-year variations of the onset dates and the rainfall amount within the RS and SM season were closely linked with the preceding winter and spring sea surface temperature in the central-eastern and western Pacific. It was also found that the onset dates were significantly correlated with the RS and SM rainfall amount.

Contrasting patterns of litterfall seasonality and seasonal changes in litter decomposability in a tropical rainforest region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parsons, S. A.; Valdez-Ramirez, V.; Congdon, R. A.; Williams, S. E.

2014-06-01

The seasonality of litter inputs in forests has important implications for understanding ecosystem processes and biogeochemical cycles. We quantified the drivers of seasonality in litterfall and leaf decomposability, using plots throughout the Australian wet tropical region. Litter fell mostly in the summer (wet, warm) months in the region, but other peaks occurred throughout the year. Litterfall seasonality was modelled well with the level of deciduousness of the site (plots with more deciduous species had lower seasonality than evergreen plots), temperature (higher seasonality in the uplands), disturbance (lower seasonality with more early secondary species) and soil fertility (higher seasonality with higher N : P/P limitation) (SL total litterfall model 1 = deciduousness + soil N : P + early secondary sp: r2 = 0.63, n = 30 plots; model 2 = temperature + early secondary sp. + soil N : P: r2 = 0.54, n = 30; SL leaf = temperature + early secondary sp. + rainfall seasonality: r2 = 0.39, n = 30). Leaf litter decomposability was lower in the dry season than in the wet season, driven by higher phenolic concentrations in the dry, with the difference exacerbated particularly by lower dry season moisture. Our results are contrary to the global trend for tropical rainforests; in that seasonality of litterfall inputs were generally higher in wetter, cooler, evergreen forests, compared to generally drier, warmer, semi-deciduous sites that had more uniform monthly inputs. We consider this due to more diverse litter shedding patterns in semi-deciduous and raingreen rainforest sites, and an important consideration for ecosystem modellers. Seasonal changes in litter quality are likely to have impacts on decomposition and biogeochemical cycles in these forests due to the litter that falls in the dry being more recalcitrant to decay.

Seasonal and spatial patterns of erosivity in a tropical watershed of the Colombian Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoyos, Natalia; Waylen, Peter R.; Jaramillo, Álvaro

2005-11-01

The Dosquebradas Basin, in the central coffee growing region of Colombia, covers an area of 58 km 2 between 1350 and 2150 m of elevation, with an annual precipitation of 2600-3200 mm. Seasonal erosivity (EI30), as defined by the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), was calculated for 11 years of record (1987-1997) from six pluviographic stations located within 21 km of the basin. Regression models for each station indicated that storm rainfall explained 61-70% of the variation in storm erosivity. Individual storms represented as much as 25% of the annual EI30 (10,409-15,975 MJ mm ha -1 h -1 yr -1). At the seasonal scale, the explained variation increased to 75-86%. There was a significant difference between wet and dry seasons, with higher values and larger increases in erosivity per unit increase in rainfall during the wet seasons. Two pooled regression models, one for the wet and one for the dry seasons, were created and used to estimate seasonal erosivity for 10 stations with pluviometric data. Interpolation surfaces were created from seasonal values using the local polynomial algorithm. Spatial patterns of erosivity were related to (a) the regional elevation gradient, particularly important during the dry seasons, and (b) local topographic effects, particularly during the wet seasons. Our findings underscore the importance of using seasonal erosivity values and local rainfall intensity records in tropical mountainous regions characterized by marked rainfall seasonality and complex topography.

Operational 0-3 h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts: Recent performance and potential enhancements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokol, Z.; Kitzmiller, D.; Pešice, P.; Guan, S.

2009-05-01

The NOAA National Weather Service has maintained an automated, centralized 0-3 h prediction system for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts since 2001. This advective-statistical system (ADSTAT) produces probabilities that rainfall will exceed multiple threshold values up to 50 mm at some location within a 40-km grid box. Operational characteristics and development methods for the system are described. Although development data were stratified by season and time of day, ADSTAT utilizes only a single set of nation-wide equations that relate predictor variables derived from radar reflectivity, lightning, satellite infrared temperatures, and numerical prediction model output to rainfall occurrence. A verification study documented herein showed that the operational ADSTAT reliably models regional variations in the relative frequency of heavy rain events. This was true even in the western United States, where no regional-scale, gridded hourly precipitation data were available during the development period in the 1990s. An effort was recently launched to improve the quality of ADSTAT forecasts by regionalizing the prediction equations and to adapt the model for application in the Czech Republic. We have experimented with incorporating various levels of regional specificity in the probability equations. The geographic localization study showed that in the warm season, regional climate differences and variations in the diurnal temperature cycle have a marked effect on the predictor-predictand relationships, and thus regionalization would lead to better statistical reliability in the forecasts.

Mulga, a major tropical dry open forest of Australia: recent insights to carbon and water fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eamus, Derek; Huete, Alfredo; Cleverly, James; Nolan, Rachael H.; Ma, Xuanlong; Tarin, Tonantzin; Santini, Nadia S.

2016-12-01

Mulga, comprised of a complex of closely related Acacia spp., grades from a low open forest to tall shrublands in tropical and sub-tropical arid and semi-arid regions of Australia and experiences warm-to-hot annual temperatures and a pronounced dry season. This short synthesis of current knowledge briefly outlines the causes of the extreme variability in rainfall characteristic of much of central Australia, and then discusses the patterns and drivers of variability in carbon and water fluxes of a central Australian low open Mulga forest. Variation in phenology and the impact of differences in the amount and timing of precipitation on vegetation function are then discussed. We use field observations, with particular emphasis on eddy covariance data, coupled with modelling and remote sensing products to interpret inter-seasonal and inter-annual patterns in the behaviour of this ecosystem. We show that Mulga can vary between periods of near carbon neutrality to periods of being a significant sink or source for carbon, depending on both the amount and timing of rainfall. Further, we demonstrate that Mulga contributed significantly to the 2011 global land sink anomaly, a result ascribed to the exceptional rainfall of 2010/2011. Finally, we compare and contrast the hydraulic traits of three tree species growing close to the Mulga and show how each species uses different combinations of trait strategies (for example, sapwood density, xylem vessel implosion resistance, phenological guild, access to groundwater and Huber value) to co-exist in this semi-arid environment. Understanding the inter-annual variability in functional behaviour of this important arid-zone biome and mechanisms underlying species co-existence will increase our ability to predict trajectories of carbon and water balances for future changing climates.

Uganda rainfall variability and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jury, Mark R.

2018-05-01

This study analyzes large-scale controls on Uganda's rainfall. Unlike past work, here, a May-October season is used because of the year-round nature of agricultural production, vegetation sensitivity to rainfall, and disease transmission. The Uganda rainfall record exhibits steady oscillations of ˜3 and 6 years over 1950-2013. Correlation maps at two-season lead time resolve the subtropical ridge over global oceans as an important feature. Multi-variate environmental predictors include Dec-May south Indian Ocean sea surface temperature, east African upper zonal wind, and South Atlantic wind streamfunction, providing a 33% fit to May-Oct rainfall time series. Composite analysis indicates that cool-phase El Niño Southern Oscillation supports increased May-Oct Uganda rainfall via a zonal overturning lower westerly/upper easterly atmospheric circulation. Sea temperature anomalies are positive in the east Atlantic and negative in the west Indian Ocean in respect of wet seasons. The northern Hadley Cell plays a role in limiting the northward march of the equatorial trough from May to October. An analysis of early season floods found that moist inflow from the west Indian Ocean converges over Uganda, generating diurnal thunderstorm clusters that drift southwestward producing high runoff.

Exploring the relationship between malaria, rainfall intermittency, and spatial variation in rainfall seasonality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merkord, C. L.; Wimberly, M. C.; Henebry, G. M.; Senay, G. B.

2014-12-01

Malaria is a major public health problem throughout tropical regions of the world. Successful prevention and treatment of malaria requires an understanding of the environmental factors that affect the life cycle of both the malaria pathogens, protozoan parasites, and its vectors, anopheline mosquitos. Because the egg, larval, and pupal stages of mosquito development occur in aquatic habitats, information about the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is critical for modeling malaria risk. Potential sources of hydrological data include satellite-derived rainfall estimates (TRMM and GPM), evapotranspiration derived from a simplified surface energy balance, and estimates of soil moisture and fractional water cover from passive microwave imagery. Previous studies have found links between malaria cases and total monthly or weekly rainfall in areas where both are highly seasonal. However it is far from clear that monthly or weekly summaries are the best metrics to use to explain malaria outbreaks. It is possible that particular temporal or spatial patterns of rainfall result in better mosquito habitat and thus higher malaria risk. We used malaria case data from the Amhara region of Ethiopia and satellite-derived rainfall estimates to explore the relationship between malaria outbreaks and rainfall with the goal of identifying the most useful rainfall metrics for modeling malaria occurrence. First, we explored spatial variation in the seasonal patterns of both rainfall and malaria cases in Amhara. Second, we assessed the relative importance of different metrics of rainfall intermittency, including alternation of wet and dry spells, the strength of intensity fluctuations, and spatial variability in these measures, in determining the length and severity of malaria outbreaks. We also explored the sensitivity of our results to the choice of method for describing rainfall intermittency and the spatial and temporal scale at which metrics were calculated. Results demonstrate that information about the seasonality and intermittency of rainfall has the potential to improve our understanding of malaria epidemiology and improve our ability to forecast malaria outbreaks.

Has contemporary climate change played a role in population declines of the lizard Ctenophorus decresii from semi-arid Australia?

PubMed

Walker, Samantha; Stuart-Fox, Devi; Kearney, Michael R

2015-12-01

Whilst contemporary climatic changes are small in magnitude compared to those predicted for the coming decades, they have already been linked to species range shifts and local extinctions. Elucidating the drivers behind species' responses to contemporary climate change will better inform management strategies for vulnerable and pest species alike. A recent proposal to explain worldwide local extinctions in lizards is that increasing maximum temperatures have constrained lizard activity time in the breeding season beyond extinction thresholds. Here we document a significant population decline and potential local extinction at the warm (northern) range margin of the tawny dragon, Ctenophorus decresii, a rock-dwelling lizard from the Flinders Ranges in semi-arid Australia. We developed and tested a biophysical model of tawny dragon thermoregulatory behaviour and drove the model with daily weather data for the period 1990-2009 across the Flinders Ranges. Our results indicate that potential annual activity time has likely increased over this period throughout the historic range, with within-season declines only in the summer months at the northern range limit. However, populations that have declined since 2000 have also likely experienced higher active body temperatures and more stringent retreat-site requirements (deeper crevices) than have regions where the species remains common, during a period of declining rainfall. Our laboratory estimates of thermal preference in this species were insensitive to altered nutritional and hydric state. Thus it is possible that recent population declines are linked to desiccation stress driven by higher body temperatures and declining rainfall. Our study illustrates that simple indices of the impact of climate warming on animals, such as activity restriction, may in fact reflect a variety of potential mechanisms whose ultimate outcome will be contingent on other factors such as water and shelter availability. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monthly Rainfall Erosivity Assessment for Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Simon; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

2016-04-01

Water erosion is crucially controlled by rainfall erosivity, which is quantified out of the kinetic energy of raindrop impact and associated surface runoff. Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as the R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). Just like precipitation, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland has a characteristic seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This inter-annual variability is to be assessed by a monthly and seasonal modelling approach. We used a network of 86 precipitation gauging stations with a 10-minute temporal resolution to calculate long-term average monthly R-factors. Stepwise regression and Monte Carlo Cross Validation (MCCV) was used to select spatial covariates to explain the spatial pattern of R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The regionalized monthly R-factor is mapped by its individual regression equation and the ordinary kriging interpolation of its residuals (Regression-Kriging). As covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included like snow height, a combination of hourly gauging measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), mean monthly alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD) and monthly precipitation sums (Rhires). Topographic parameters were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of all 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed seasonality with highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) and lowest rainfall erosivity in winter months. Besides the inter-annual temporal regime, a seasonal spatial variability was detectable. Spatial maps of monthly rainfall erosivity are presented for the first time for Switzerland. The assessment of the spatial and temporal dynamic behaviour of the R-factor is valuable for the identification of more susceptible seasons and regions as well as for the application of selective erosion control measures. A combination with monthly vegetation cover (C-factor) maps would enable the assessment of seasonal dynamics of erosion processes in Switzerland.

Changes to dryland rainfall result in rapid moss mortality and altered soil fertility

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, Sasha C.; Coe, Kirsten K.; Sparks, Jed P.; Housman, David C.; Zelikova, Tamara J.; Belnap, Jayne

2012-01-01

Arid and semi-arid ecosystems cover ~40% of Earth’s terrestrial surface, but we know little about how climate change will affect these widespread landscapes. Like many drylands, the Colorado Plateau in southwestern United States is predicted to experience elevated temperatures and alterations to the timing and amount of annual precipitation. We used a factorial warming and supplemental rainfall experiment on the Colorado Plateau to show that altered precipitation resulted in pronounced mortality of the widespread moss Syntrichia caninervis. Increased frequency of 1.2 mm summer rainfall events reduced moss cover from ~25% of total surface cover to <2% after only one growing season, whereas increased temperature had no effect. Laboratory measurements identified a physiological mechanism behind the mortality: small precipitation events caused a negative moss carbon balance, whereas larger events maintained net carbon uptake. Multiple metrics of nitrogen cycling were notably different with moss mortality and had significant implications for soil fertility. Mosses are important members in many dryland ecosystems and the community changes observed here reveal how subtle modifications to climate can affect ecosystem structure and function on unexpectedly short timescales. Moreover, mortality resulted from increased precipitation through smaller, more frequent events, underscoring the importance of precipitation event size and timing, and highlighting our inadequate understanding of relationships between climate and ecosystem function in drylands.

Persistence Characteristics of Australian Rainfall Anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmonds, Ian; Hope, Pandora

1997-05-01

Using 79 years (1913-1991) of Australian monthly precipitation data we examined the nature of the persistence of rainfall anomalies. Analyses were performed for four climate regions covering the country, as well as for the entire Australian continent. We show that rainfall over these regions has high temporal variability and that annual rainfall amounts over all five sectors vary in phase and are, with the exception of the north-west region, significantly correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). These relationships were particularly strong during the spring season.It is demonstrated that Australian rainfall exhibits statistically significant persistence on monthly, seasonal, and (to a limited extent) annual time-scales, up to lags of 3 months and one season and 1 year. The persistence showed strong seasonal dependence, with each of the five regions showing memory out to 4 or 5 months from winter and spring. Many aspects of climate in the Australasian region are known to have undergone considerable changes about 1950. We show this to be true for persistence also; its characteristics identified for the entire record were present during the 1951--1980 period, but virtually disappeared in the previous 30-year period.Much of the seasonal distribution of rainfall persistence on monthly time-scales, particularly in the east, is due to the influence of the SOI. However, most of the persistence identified in winter and spring in the north-west is independent of the ENSO phenomenon.Rainfall anomalies following extreme dry and wet months, seasons and years (lowest and highest two deciles) persisted more than would be expected by chance. For monthly extreme events this was more marked in the winter semester for the wet events, except in the south-east region. In general, less persistence was found for the extreme seasons. Although the persistence of dry years was less than would have been expected by chance, the wet years appear to display persistence.

Noachian Climate of Mars: Insights from Noachian Stratigraphy and Valley Networks System Formation Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, J. W., III

2017-12-01

Noachian climate models have been proposed in order to account for 1) observed fluvial and lacustrine activity, 2) weathering processes producing phyllosilicates, and 3) an unusual impact record including three major impact basins and unusual degradation processes. We adopt a stratigraphic approach in order place these observations in a temporal context. Formation of the major impact basins Hellas, Isidis and Argyre in earlier Noachian profoundly influenced the uplands geology and appears to have occurred concurrently with major phyllosilicate and related surface occurrences/deposits; the immediate aftermath of these basins appears to have created a temporary hot and wet surface environment with significant effect on surface morphology and alteration processes. Formation of Late Noachian-Early Hesperian valley network systems (VNS) signaled the presence of warm/wet conditions generating several hypotheses for climates permissive of these conditions. We examined estimates for the time required to carve channels/deltas and total duration implied by plausible intermittencies. Synthesis of required timescales show that the total time to carve the VN does not exceed 106 years, < 0.25% of the total Noachian. What climate models can account for the VNS? 1) Warm and wet/semiarid/arid climate: Sustained background MAT >273 K, hydrological system vertically integrated, and rainfall occurs to recharge the aquifer. 2) Cold and Icy climate warmed by greenhouse gases or episodic stochastic events: Climate is sustained cold/icy, but greenhouse gases of unspecified nature/amount/duration elevate MAT by several tens of Kelvins, bringing the annual temperature range into the realm where peak seasonal temperatures (PST) exceed 273 K. In this climate environment, analogous to the Antarctic Dry Valleys, seasonal summer temperatures above 273 K are sufficient to melt snow/ice and form fluvial and lacustrine features, but MAT is well below 273 K (253 K); punctuated warming alternatives include impacts or volcanic eruptions. We conclude that a cold and icy background climate with modest greenhouse warming or punctuated warming and melting events for the VNs origin is consistent with: 1) the estimated durations of continuous VN formation (<105 years) and 2) VN system estimated recurrence rates (106-107 years).

Mineralogical evidence of reduced East Asian summer monsoon rainfall on the Chinese loess plateau during the early Pleistocene interglacials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Xianqiang; Liu, Lianwen; Wang, Xingchen T.; Balsam, William; Chen, Jun; Ji, Junfeng

2018-03-01

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is an important component of the global climate system. A better understanding of EASM rainfall variability in the past can help constrain climate models and better predict the response of EASM to ongoing global warming. The warm early Pleistocene, a potential analog of future climate, is an important period to study EASM dynamics. However, existing monsoon proxies for reconstruction of EASM rainfall during the early Pleistocene fail to disentangle monsoon rainfall changes from temperature variations, complicating the comparison of these monsoon records with climate models. Here, we present three 2.6 million-year-long EASM rainfall records from the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) based on carbonate dissolution, a novel proxy for rainfall intensity. These records show that the interglacial rainfall on the CLP was lower during the early Pleistocene and then gradually increased with global cooling during the middle and late Pleistocene. These results are contrary to previous suggestions that a warmer climate leads to higher monsoon rainfall on tectonic timescales. We propose that the lower interglacial EASM rainfall during the early Pleistocene was caused by reduced sea surface temperature gradients across the equatorial Pacific, providing a testable hypothesis for climate models.

Convective and nonconvective rainfall partitioning over a mixed Sudanian Savanna Agriculture Catchment: Use of a distributed sensor network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceperley, N. C.; Mande, T.; Barrenetxea, G.; Repetti, A.; Yacouba, H.; Tyler, S. W.; Parlange, M. B.

2011-12-01

A hydro-meteorological field campaign (joint EPFL-2iE) in a mixed agricultural and forest region in the southern Burkina Faso Savanna aims to identify and understand convective rainfall processes and the link to soil moisture. A simple slab Mixed Layer and Lifting Condensation Level model is implemented to separate convective and nonconvective rainfall. Data for this research were acquired during the 2010 rainy season using an array of wireless weather stations (SensorScope) as well as surface energy balance stations that based upon eddy correlation heat flux measurements. The precipitation was found to be variable over the basin with some 200 mm of difference in total seasonal rainfall between agricultural fields and savanna forest. Convective rainfall represents more than 30% of the total rainfall. The convective rainfall events are short (less than hour), intense (greater than 3 mm/minute) and occur both in the early morning and in the afternoons. These events can have an important impact on soil erosion, which we discuss in more detail along with seasonal stream-aquifer interactions.

Regional seasonal warming anomalies and land-surface feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coffel, E.; Horton, R. M.

2017-12-01

Significant seasonal variations in warming are projected in some regions, especially central Europe, the southeastern U.S., and central South America. Europe in particular may experience up to 2°C more warming during June, July, and August than in the annual mean, enhancing the risk of extreme summertime heat. Previous research has shown that heat waves in Europe and other regions are tied to seasonal soil moisture variations, and that in general land-surface feedbacks have a strong effect on seasonal temperature anomalies. In this study, we show that the seasonal anomalies in warming are also due in part to land-surface feedbacks. We find that in regions with amplified warming during the hot season, surface soil moisture levels generally decline and Bowen ratios increase as a result of a preferential partitioning of incoming energy into sensible vs. latent. The CMIP5 model suite shows significant variability in the strength of land-atmosphere coupling and in projections of future precipitation and soil moisture. Due to the dependence of seasonal warming on land-surface processes, these inter-model variations influence the projected summertime warming amplification and contribute to the uncertainty in projections of future extreme heat.

An Evaluation of WRF Microphysics Schemes for Simulating the Warm-Type Heavy Rain over the Korean Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Hwan-Jin; Sohn, Byung-Ju

2018-05-01

The Korean peninsula is the region of distinctly showing the heavy rain associated with relatively low storm height and small ice water content in the upper part of cloud system (i.e., so-called warm-type heavy rainfall). The satellite observations for the warm-type rain over Korea led to a conjecture that the cloud microphysics parameterization suitable for the continental deep convection may not work well for the warm-type heavy rainfall over the Korean peninsula. Therefore, there is a growing need to examine the performance of cloud microphysics schemes for simulating the warm-type heavy rain structures over the Korean peninsula. This study aims to evaluate the capabilities of eight microphysics schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model how warm-type heavy rain structures can be simulated, in reference to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) reflectivity measurements. The results indicate that the WRF Double Moment 6-class (WDM6) scheme simulated best the vertical structure of warm-type heavy rain by virtue of a reasonable collision-coalescence process between liquid droplets and the smallest amount of snow. Nonetheless the WDM6 scheme appears to have limitations that need to be improved upon for a realistic reflectivity structure, in terms of the reflectivity slope below the melting layer, discontinuity in reflectivity profiles around the melting layer, and overestimation of upper-level reflectivity due to high graupel content.

Effects of Raindrop Shape Parameter on the Simulation of Plum Rains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mei, H.; Zhou, L.; Li, X.; Huang, X.; Guo, W.

2017-12-01

The raindrop shape parameter of particle distribution is generally set as constant in a Double-moment Bulk Microphysics Scheme (DBMS) using Gama distribution function though which suggest huge differences in time and space according to observations. Based on Milbrandt 2-mon(MY) DBMS, four cases during Plum Rains season are simulated coupled with four empirical relationships between shape parameter (μr) and slope parameter of raindrop which have been concluded from observations of raindrop distributions. The analysis of model results suggest that μr have some influences on rainfall. Introducing the diagnostic formulas of μr may have some improvement on systematic biases of 24h accumulated rainfall and show some correction ability on local characteristics of rainfall distribution. Besides,the tendency to improve strong rainfall could be sensitive to μr. With the improvement of the diagnosis of μr using the empirically diagnostic formulas, μr increases generally in the middle- and lower-troposphere and decreases with the stronger rainfall. Its conclued that, the decline in raindrop water content and the increased raindrop mass-weighted average terminal velocity directly related to μr are the direct reasons of variations in the precipitation.On the other side, the environmental conditions including relative humidity and dynamical parameters are the key indirectly causes which has close relationships with the changes in cloud particles and rainfall distributions.Furthermore,the differences in the scale of improvement between the weak and heavy rainfall mainly come from the distinctions of response features about their variable fields respectively. The extent of variation in the features of cloud particles in warm clouds of heavy rainfall differs greatly from that of weak rainfall, though they share the same trend of variation. On the conditions of weak rainfall, the response of physical characteristics to μr performed consistent trends and some linear features. However, environmental conditions of relative humidity and dynamical parameters perform strong and vertically deep adjustments in the heavy precipitation with vigorous cloud systems. In this case, the microphysical processes and environmental conditions experience complex interactions with each other and no significant laws could be concluded.

North-East monsoon rainfall extremes over the southern peninsular India and their association with El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Prem; Gnanaseelan, C.; Chowdary, J. S.

2017-12-01

The present study investigates the relationship between extreme north-east (NE) monsoon rainfall (NEMR) over the Indian peninsula region and El Niño forcing. This turns out to be a critical science issue especially after the 2015 Chennai flood. The puzzle being while most El Niños favour good NE monsoon, some don't. In fact some El Niño years witnessed deficit NE monsoon. Therefore two different cases (or classes) of El Niños are considered for analysis based on standardized NEMR index and Niño 3.4 index with case-1 being both Niño-3.4 and NEMR indices greater than +1 and case-2 being Niño-3.4 index greater than +1 and NEMR index less than -1. Composite analysis suggests that SST anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific are strong in both cases but large differences are noted in the spatial distribution of SST over the Indo-western Pacific region. This questions our understanding of NEMR as mirror image of El Niño conditions in the Pacific. It is noted that the favourable excess NEMR in case-1 is due to anomalous moisture transport from Bay of Bengal and equatorial Indian Ocean to southern peninsular India. Strong SST gradient between warm western Indian Ocean (and Bay of Bengal) and cool western Pacific induced strong easterly wind anomalies during NE monsoon season favour moisture transport towards the core NE monsoon region. Further anomalous moisture convergence and convection over the core NE monsoon region supported positive rainfall anomalies in case-1. While in case-2, weak SST gradients over the Indo-western Pacific and absence of local low level convergence over NE monsoon region are mainly responsible for deficit rainfall. The ocean dynamics in the Indian Ocean displayed large differences during case-1 and case-2, suggesting the key role of Rossby wave dynamics in the Indian Ocean on NE monsoon extremes. Apart from the large scale circulation differences the number of cyclonic systems land fall for case-1 and case-2 have also contributed for variations in NE monsoon rainfall extremes during El Niño years. This study indicates that despite having strong warming in the central and eastern Pacific, NE monsoon rainfall variations over the southern peninsular India is mostly determined by SST gradient over the Indo-western Pacific region and number of systems formation in the Bay of Bengal and their land fall. The paper concludes that though the favourable large scale circulation induced by Pacific is important in modulating the NE monsoon rainfall the local air sea interaction plays a key role in modulating or driving rainfall extremes associated with El Niño.

Real-time prediction of rain-triggered lahars: incorporating seasonality and catchment recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Robbie; Manville, Vern; Peakall, Jeff; Froude, Melanie J.; Odbert, Henry M.

2017-12-01

Rain-triggered lahars are a significant secondary hydrological and geomorphic hazard at volcanoes where unconsolidated pyroclastic material produced by explosive eruptions is exposed to intense rainfall, often occurring for years to decades after the initial eruptive activity. Previous studies have shown that secondary lahar initiation is a function of rainfall parameters, source material characteristics and time since eruptive activity. In this study, probabilistic rain-triggered lahar forecasting models are developed using the lahar occurrence and rainfall record of the Belham River valley at the Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat, collected between April 2010 and April 2012. In addition to the use of peak rainfall intensity (PRI) as a base forecasting parameter, considerations for the effects of rainfall seasonality and catchment evolution upon the initiation of rain-triggered lahars and the predictability of lahar generation are also incorporated into these models. Lahar probability increases with peak 1 h rainfall intensity throughout the 2-year dataset and is higher under given rainfall conditions in year 1 than year 2. The probability of lahars is also enhanced during the wet season, when large-scale synoptic weather systems (including tropical cyclones) are more common and antecedent rainfall and thus levels of deposit saturation are typically increased. The incorporation of antecedent conditions and catchment evolution into logistic-regression-based rain-triggered lahar probability estimation models is shown to enhance model performance and displays the potential for successful real-time prediction of lahars, even in areas featuring strongly seasonal climates and temporal catchment recovery.

Simple additive simulation overestimates real influence: altered nitrogen and rainfall modulate the effect of warming on soil carbon fluxes.

PubMed

Ni, Xiangyin; Yang, Wanqin; Qi, Zemin; Liao, Shu; Xu, Zhenfeng; Tan, Bo; Wang, Bin; Wu, Qinggui; Fu, Changkun; You, Chengming; Wu, Fuzhong

2017-08-01

Experiments and models have led to a consensus that there is positive feedback between carbon (C) fluxes and climate warming. However, the effect of warming may be altered by regional and global changes in nitrogen (N) and rainfall levels, but the current understanding is limited. Through synthesizing global data on soil C pool, input and loss from experiments simulating N deposition, drought and increased precipitation, we quantified the responses of soil C fluxes and equilibrium to the three single factors and their interactions with warming. We found that warming slightly increased the soil C input and loss by 5% and 9%, respectively, but had no significant effect on the soil C pool. Nitrogen deposition alone increased the soil C input (+20%), but the interaction of warming and N deposition greatly increased the soil C input by 49%. Drought alone decreased the soil C input by 17%, while the interaction of warming and drought decreased the soil C input to a greater extent (-22%). Increased precipitation stimulated the soil C input by 15%, but the interaction of warming and increased precipitation had no significant effect on the soil C input. However, the soil C loss was not significantly affected by any of the interactions, although it was constrained by drought (-18%). These results implied that the positive C fluxes-climate warming feedback was modulated by the changing N and rainfall regimes. Further, we found that the additive effects of [warming × N deposition] and [warming × drought] on the soil C input and of [warming × increased precipitation] on the soil C loss were greater than their interactions, suggesting that simple additive simulation using single-factor manipulations may overestimate the effects on soil C fluxes in the real world. Therefore, we propose that more multifactorial experiments should be considered in studying Earth systems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

TRMM-observed summer warm rain over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean: Characteristics and regional differences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Fang; Fu, Yunfei

2016-06-01

Based on the merged measurements from the TRMM Precipitation Radar and Visible and Infrared Scanner, refined characteristics (intensity, frequency, vertical structure, and diurnal variation) and regional differences of the warm rain over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40ffiS-40ffiN, 120ffiE-70ffiW) in boreal summer are investigated for the period 1998-2012. The results reveal that three warm rain types (phased, pure, and mixed) exist over these regions. The phased warm rain, which occurs during the developing or declining stage of precipitation weather systems, is located over the central to western Intertropical Convergence Zone, South Pacific Convergence Zone, and Northwest Pacific. Its occurrence frequency peaks at midnight and minimizes during daytime with a 5.5-km maximum echo top. The frequency of this warm rain type is about 2.2%, and it contributes to 40% of the regional total rainfall. The pure warm rain is characterized by typical stable precipitation with an echo top lower than 4 km, and mostly occurs in Southeast Pacific. Although its frequency is less than 1.3%, this type of warm rain accounts for 95% of the regional total rainfall. Its occurrence peaks before dawn and it usually disappears in the afternoon. For the mixed warm rain, some may develop into deep convective precipitation, while most are similar to those of the pure type. The mixed warm rain is mainly located over the ocean east of Hawaii. Its frequency is 1.2%, but this type of warm rain could contribute to 80% of the regional total rainfall. The results also uncover that the mixed and pure types occur over the regions where SST ranges from 295 to 299 K, accompanied by relatively strong downdrafts at 500 hPa. Both the mixed and pure warm rains happen in a more unstable atmosphere, compared with the phased warm rain.

Recent trends in rainfall and temperature over North West India during 1871-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saxena, Rani; Mathur, Prasoon

2018-03-01

Rainfall and temperature are the most important environmental factors influencing crop growth, development, and yield. The northwestern (NW) part of India is one of the main regions of food grain production of the country. It comprises of six meteorological subdivisions (Haryana, Punjab, West Rajasthan, East Rajasthan, Gujarat and Saurashtra, Kutch and Diu). In this study, attempts were made to study variability and trends in rainfall and temperature during 30-year climate normal periods (CN) and 10-year decadal excess or deficit rainfall frequency during the historical period from 1871 to 2016. The Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rank correlation (Spearman's rho) tests were used to determine significance of trends. Least square linear fitting method was adopted to find out the slopes of the trend lines. The long-term mean annual rainfall over North West India is 587.7 mm (standard deviation of 153.0 mm and coefficient of variation 26.0). There was increasing trend in minimum and maximum temperatures during post monsoon season in entire study period and current climate normal period (1991-2016) due to which the sowing of rabi season crops may be delayed and there may be germination problem too. There was a non-significant decreasing trend in rainfall during monsoon season and an increasing trend in rainfall during post monsoon over North West India during entire study period. During current CN5 (1991-2016), all the subdivision (except the Saurashtra region) showed a decreasing trend in rainfall during monsoon season which is a matter of concern for kharif crops and those rabi crops which are grown as rainfed on conserved soil moisture. The decadal annual and seasonal frequencies of excess and deficit years results revealed that the annual total deficit rainfall years (24) exceeded total excess rainfall years (22) in North West India during the entire study period. While during the current decadal period (2011 to 2016), single year was the excess year and 2 years were deficit rainfall years in all subdivisions (except East Rajasthan) on annual basis.

Seasonal rainfall-runoff relationships in a lowland forested watershed in the southeastern USA

Treesearch

Ileana La Torre Torres; Devendra Amatya; Ge Sun; Timothy Callahan

2011-01-01

Hydrological processes of lowland watersheds of the southern USA are not well understood compared to a hilly landscape due to their unique topography, soil compositions, and climate. This study describes the seasonal relationships between rainfall patterns and runoff (sum of storm flow and base flow) using 13 years (1964–1976) of rainfall and stream flow data for a low...

Regionalization of monthly rainfall erosivity patternsin Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Simon; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos; Meusburger, Katrin

2016-10-01

One major controlling factor of water erosion is rainfall erosivity, which is quantified as the product of total storm energy and a maximum 30 min intensity (I30). Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). As rainfall erosivity is closely correlated with rainfall amount and intensity, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland can be expected to have a regional characteristic and seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This intra-annual variability was mapped by a monthly modeling approach to assess simultaneously spatial and monthly patterns of rainfall erosivity. So far only national seasonal means and regional annual means exist for Switzerland. We used a network of 87 precipitation gauging stations with a 10 min temporal resolution to calculate long-term monthly mean R-factors. Stepwise generalized linear regression (GLM) and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) were used to select spatial covariates which explain the spatial and temporal patterns of the R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The monthly R-factor is mapped by summarizing the predicted R-factor of the regression equation and the corresponding residues of the regression, which are interpolated by ordinary kriging (regression-kriging). As spatial covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included such as snow depths, a combination product of hourly precipitation measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), daily Alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD), and monthly precipitation sums (RhiresM). Topographic parameters (elevation, slope) were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of the 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed a distinct seasonality with the highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) influenced by intense rainfall events. Winter months have the lowest rainfall erosivity. A proportion of 62 % of the total annual rainfall erosivity is identified within four months only (June-September). The highest erosion risk can be expected in July, where not only rainfall erosivity but also erosivity density is high. In addition to the intra-annual temporal regime, a spatial variability of this seasonality was detectable between different regions of Switzerland. The assessment of the dynamic behavior of the R-factor is valuable for the identification of susceptible seasons and regions.

Influence of the balance of the intertropical front on seasonal variations of the isotopic composition in rainfall at Kisiba Masoko (Rungwe Volcanic Province, SW, Tanzania).

PubMed

Nivet, Fantine; Bergonzini, Laurent; Mathé, Pierre-Etienne; Noret, Aurélie; Monvoisin, Gaël; Majule, Amos; Williamson, David

2018-08-01

Tropical rainfall isotopic composition results from complex processes. The climatological and environmental variability in East Africa increases this complexity. Long rainfall isotope datasets are needed to fill the lack of observations in this region. At Kisiba Masoko, Tanzania, rainfall and rain isotopic composition have been monitored during 6 years. Mean year profiles allow to analyse the seasonal variations. The mean annual rainfall is 2099 mm with a rain-weighted mean composition of -3.2 ‰ for δ 18 O and -11.7 ‰ for δ 2 H. The results are consistent with available data although they present their own specificity. Thus, if the local meteoric water line is δ 2 H = 8.6 δ 18 O + 14.8, two seasonal lines are observed. The seasonality of the isotopic composition in rain and deuterium excess has been compared with precipitating air masses backtracking trajectories to characterize a simple scheme of vapour histories. The three major oceanic sources have two moisture signatures with their own trajectory histories: one originated from the tropical Indian Ocean at the beginning of the rainy season and one from the Austral Ocean at its end. The presented isotopic seasonality depends on the balance of the intertropical front and provides a useful dataset to improve the knowledge about local processes.

Validation of TRMM precipitation radar monthly rainfall estimates over Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franchito, Sergio H.; Rao, V. Brahmananda; Vasques, Ana C.; Santo, Clovis M. E.; Conforte, Jorge C.

2009-01-01

In an attempt to validate the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) over Brazil, TRMM PR estimates are compared with rain gauge station data from Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL). The analysis is conducted on a seasonal basis and considers five geographic regions with different precipitation regimes. The results showed that TRMM PR seasonal rainfall is well correlated with ANEEL rainfall (correlation coefficients are significant at the 99% confidence level) over most of Brazil. The random and systematic errors of TRMM PR are sensitive to seasonal and regional differences. During December to February and March to May, TRMM PR rainfall is reliable over Brazil. In June to August (September to November) TRMM PR estimates are only reliable in the Amazonian and southern (Amazonian and southeastern) regions. In the other regions the relative RMS errors are larger than 50%, indicating that the random errors are high.

Climate and vegetational regime shifts in the late Paleozoic ice age earth.

PubMed

DiMichele, W A; Montañez, I P; Poulsen, C J; Tabor, N J

2009-03-01

The late Paleozoic earth experienced alternation between glacial and non-glacial climates at multiple temporal scales, accompanied by atmospheric CO2 fluctuations and global warming intervals, often attended by significant vegetational changes in equatorial latitudes of Pangaea. We assess the nature of climate-vegetation interaction during two time intervals: middle-late Pennsylvanian transition and Pennsylvanian-Permian transition, each marked by tropical warming and drying. In case study 1, there is a catastrophic intra-biomic reorganization of dominance and diversity in wetland, evergreen vegetation growing under humid climates. This represents a threshold-type change, possibly a regime shift to an alternative stable state. Case study 2 is an inter-biome dominance change in western and central Pangaea from humid wetland and seasonally dry to semi-arid vegetation. Shifts between these vegetation types had been occurring in Euramerican portions of the equatorial region throughout the late middle and late Pennsylvanian, the drier vegetation reaching persistent dominance by Early Permian. The oscillatory transition between humid and seasonally dry vegetation appears to demonstrate a threshold-like behavior but probably not repeated transitions between alternative stable states. Rather, changes in dominance in lowland equatorial regions were driven by long-term, repetitive climatic oscillations, occurring with increasing intensity, within overall shift to seasonal dryness through time. In neither case study are there clear biotic or abiotic warning signs of looming changes in vegetational composition or geographic distribution, nor is it clear that there are specific, absolute values or rates of environmental change in temperature, rainfall distribution and amount, or atmospheric composition, approach to which might indicate proximity to a terrestrial biotic-change threshold.

Precipitation Climatology over Mediterranean Basin from Ten Years of TRMM Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mehta, Amita V.; Yang, Song

2008-01-01

Climatological features of mesoscale rain activities over the Mediterranean region between 5 W-40 E and 28 N-48 N are examined using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 and 2A25 rain products. The 3B42 rainrates at 3-hourly, 0.25 deg x 0.25 deg spatial resolution for the last 10 years (January 1998 to July 2007) are used to form and analyze the 5-day mean and monthly mean climatology of rainfall. Results show considerable regional and seasonal differences of rainfall over the Mediterranean Region. The maximum rainfall (3-5 mm/day) occurs over the mountain regions of Europe, while the minimum rainfall is observed over North Africa (approximately 0.5 mm/day). The main rainy season over the Mediterranean Sea extends from October to March, with maximum rainfall occurring during November-December. Over the Mediterranean Sea, an average rainrate of approximately 1-2 mm/day is observed, but during the rainy season there is 20% larger rainfall over the western Mediterranean Sea than that over the eastern Mediterranean Sea. During the rainy season, mesoscale rain systems generally propagate from west to east and from north to south over the Mediterranean region, likely to be associated with Mediterranean cyclonic disturbances resulting from interactions among large-scale circulation, orography, and land-sea temperature contrast.

Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution.

PubMed

Cox, Peter M; Harris, Phil P; Huntingford, Chris; Betts, Richard A; Collins, Matthew; Jones, Chris D; Jupp, Tim E; Marengo, José A; Nobre, Carlos A

2008-05-08

The Amazon rainforest plays a crucial role in the climate system, helping to drive atmospheric circulations in the tropics by absorbing energy and recycling about half of the rainfall that falls on it. This region (Amazonia) is also estimated to contain about one-tenth of the total carbon stored in land ecosystems, and to account for one-tenth of global, net primary productivity. The resilience of the forest to the combined pressures of deforestation and global warming is therefore of great concern, especially as some general circulation models (GCMs) predict a severe drying of Amazonia in the twenty-first century. Here we analyse these climate projections with reference to the 2005 drought in western Amazonia, which was associated with unusually warm North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We show that reduction of dry-season (July-October) rainfall in western Amazonia correlates well with an index of the north-south SST gradient across the equatorial Atlantic (the 'Atlantic N-S gradient'). Our climate model is unusual among current GCMs in that it is able to reproduce this relationship and also the observed twentieth-century multidecadal variability in the Atlantic N-S gradient, provided that the effects of aerosols are included in the model. Simulations for the twenty-first century using the same model show a strong tendency for the SST conditions associated with the 2005 drought to become much more common, owing to continuing reductions in reflective aerosol pollution in the Northern Hemisphere.

Thermodynamic and dynamic responses of the hydrological cycle to solar dimming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smyth, Jane E.; Russotto, Rick D.; Storelvmo, Trude

2017-05-01

The fundamental role of the hydrological cycle in the global climate system motivates a thorough evaluation of its responses to climate change and mitigation. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) is a coordinated international effort to assess the climate impacts of solar geoengineering, a proposal to counteract global warming with a reduction in incoming solar radiation. We assess the mechanisms underlying the rainfall response to a simplified simulation of such solar dimming (G1) in the suite of GeoMIP models and identify robust features. While solar geoengineering nearly restores preindustrial temperatures, the global hydrology is altered. Tropical precipitation changes dominate the response across the model suite, and these are driven primarily by shifts of the Hadley circulation cells. We report a damping of the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in G1, associated with preferential cooling of the summer hemisphere, and annual mean ITCZ shifts in some models that are correlated with the warming of one hemisphere relative to the other. Dynamical changes better explain the varying tropical rainfall anomalies between models than changes in relative humidity or the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of precipitation minus evaporation (P - E), given that the relative humidity and temperature responses are robust across the suite. Strong reductions in relative humidity over vegetated land regions are likely related to the CO2 physiological response in plants. The uncertainty in the spatial distribution of tropical P - E changes highlights the need for cautious consideration and continued study before any implementation of solar geoengineering.

Trends and spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheung, W.H.; Senay, G.B.; Singh, A.

2008-01-01

As a country whose economy is heavily dependent on low-productivity rainfed agriculture, rainfall trends are often cited as one of the more important factors in explaining various socio-economic problems such as food insecurity. Therefore, in order to help policymakers and developers make more informed decisions, this study investigated the temporal dynamics of rainfall and its spatial distribution within Ethiopia. Changes in rainfall were examined using data from 134 stations in 13 watersheds between 1960 and 2002. The variability and trends in seasonal and annual rainfall were analysed at the watershed scale with data (1) from all available years, and (2) excluding years that lacked observations from at least 25% of the gauges. Similar analyses were also performed at the gauge, regional, and national levels. By regressing annual watershed rainfall on time, results from the one-sample t-test show no significant changes in rainfall for any of the watersheds examined. However, in our regressions of seasonal rainfall averages against time, we found a significant decline in June to September rainfall (i.e. Kiremt) for the Baro-Akobo, Omo-Ghibe, Rift Valley, and Southern Blue Nile watersheds located in the southwestern and central parts of Ethiopia. While the gauge level analysis showed that certain gauge stations experienced recent changes in rainfall, these trends are not necessarily reflected at the watershed or regional levels.

A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schepen, Andrew; Zhao, Tongtiegang; Wang, Quan J.; Robertson, David E.

2018-03-01

Rainfall forecasts are an integral part of hydrological forecasting systems at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In seasonal forecasting, global climate models (GCMs) are now the go-to source for rainfall forecasts. For hydrological applications however, GCM forecasts are often biased and unreliable in uncertainty spread, and calibration is therefore required before use. There are sophisticated statistical techniques for calibrating monthly and seasonal aggregations of the forecasts. However, calibration of seasonal forecasts at the daily time step typically uses very simple statistical methods or climate analogue methods. These methods generally lack the sophistication to achieve unbiased, reliable and coherent forecasts of daily amounts and seasonal accumulated totals. In this study, we propose and evaluate a Rainfall Post-Processing method for Seasonal forecasts (RPP-S), which is based on the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach for calibrating daily forecasts and the Schaake Shuffle for connecting the daily ensemble members of different lead times. We apply the method to post-process ACCESS-S forecasts for 12 perennial and ephemeral catchments across Australia and for 12 initialisation dates. RPP-S significantly reduces bias in raw forecasts and improves both skill and reliability. RPP-S forecasts are also more skilful and reliable than forecasts derived from ACCESS-S forecasts that have been post-processed using quantile mapping, especially for monthly and seasonal accumulations. Several opportunities to improve the robustness and skill of RPP-S are identified. The new RPP-S post-processed forecasts will be used in ensemble sub-seasonal to seasonal streamflow applications.

Rainfall Controls on Land Surface Phenology over "Never-green" and "Ever-green" Lands in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, D.; Zhang, X.; Yu, Y.; Guo, W.

2015-12-01

The characteristics of land surface phenology (LSP) in the "Never-green" Sahara desert and the "Ever-green" equatorial Congo Basin were rarely discussed due to the extremely low seasonal greenness variations across the Sahara desert and the prolonged cloud cover over the Congo Basin. Based on 30-minute observations acquired by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager onboard the METEOSAT geostationary satellites, we generated a three-day angularly corrected Two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) time series for each year between 2006 and 2013. We further reconstructed EVI2 temporal trajectories and retrieved LSP transitions using the Hybrid Piecewise Logistic Model. We associated the LSP transitions with the rainy season transitions derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Product 3B42. Results show that LSP within both the Sahara Desert and the Congo Basin was strongly controlled by the rainfall seasonality. Specially, although there is no vegetation growth in most part of the Sahara Desert, recurring LSP was spatially detected in irrigation agriculture and the geomorphological regions of wadis, dayas, chotts/sebkhas and rocky hills. These geomorphological features are able to store moisture in soil to keep plants growing during the long dry seasons after vegetation greenup is triggered by rainfall events. The spatial shift of phenological timing is controlled by the Mediterranean rainfall regime in the north and the rainfalls brought by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the south. Across the equatorial Congo Basin, EVI2 time series reveals that canopy greenness cycles (CGC) of the seasonal leaf variation occur in tropical rainforests, which differs from the commonly termed "growing season" with complete leafless canopies. The seasonal EVI2 amplitude is very small and represents the gradual "leaf-exchange" processes. Two annual CGC are found and their spatial shifts closely follow the seasonal migration of ITCZ precipitation.

Effect of warming temperatures on US wheat yields.

PubMed

Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Nalley, Lawton Lanier

2015-06-02

Climate change is expected to increase future temperatures, potentially resulting in reduced crop production in many key production regions. Research quantifying the complex relationship between weather variables and wheat yields is rapidly growing, and recent advances have used a variety of model specifications that differ in how temperature data are included in the statistical yield equation. A unique data set that combines Kansas wheat variety field trial outcomes for 1985-2013 with location-specific weather data is used to analyze the effect of weather on wheat yield using regression analysis. Our results indicate that the effect of temperature exposure varies across the September-May growing season. The largest drivers of yield loss are freezing temperatures in the Fall and extreme heat events in the Spring. We also find that the overall effect of warming on yields is negative, even after accounting for the benefits of reduced exposure to freezing temperatures. Our analysis indicates that there exists a tradeoff between average (mean) yield and ability to resist extreme heat across varieties. More-recently released varieties are less able to resist heat than older lines. Our results also indicate that warming effects would be partially offset by increased rainfall in the Spring. Finally, we find that the method used to construct measures of temperature exposure matters for both the predictive performance of the regression model and the forecasted warming impacts on yields.

Humans have already increased the risk of major disruption to Pacific rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, Scott; Delage, Francois; Chung, Christine; Ye, Harvey; Murphy, Brad

2017-04-01

Intermittent disruptions to rainfall patterns and intensity over the Pacific Ocean lasting up to approximately one year have major impacts on severe weather, agricultural production, ecosystems, and disease within the Pacific, and in many countries beyond. These disruptions are primarily driven by the El Niño/La Niña cycle, which is a naturally occurring phenomenon centered in the tropical Pacific. Recent research concluded that global warming under scenarios with further large increases in global greenhouse gas emissions will increase the frequency of disruptions to Pacific rainfall over the 21st century. Fortunately governments from around the world recently agreed to markedly reduce emissions over coming decades. But will these cuts be sufficient to prevent a human-forced increase in the risk of major disruption? And has the risk (i.e., likelihood) of major disruption driven by year-to-year rainfall variability already increased relative to pre-industrial times? These issues are addressed here (Power et al., Nature Communications, in press). We examined disruption in CMIP5 models under climatic conditions corresponding to the pre-industrial era, the historical period and the remainder of the 21st century under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. RCP2.6 results in global warming in the late 21st century that is likely to be in the range of approximately 0.9-2.3°C (relative to the latter half of the 19th century). The equivalent figures for RCP8.5 are 3.2-5.4°C (IPCC 2014). We use a simple measure of disruption or volatility: the time evolving RMS difference in seasonal rainfall over the Pacific relative to a changing climatological value of seasonal rainfall. The CMIP5 models, the observations and an SST-forced AGCM all indicate that while both El Nino and La Nina can cause major disruptions, the largest disruptions occur during El Nino years. We also show that there is a 26% increase in the frequency of major disruptions in the models by the early twentieth century and a 28% increase by the end of the twentieth century, relative to the pre-idustrial value of approximately one major disruption every nine years. Under RCP8.5 there is a 90% increase in the early 21st century and a 126% increase during the late 21st century, again relative to the pre-industrial value. The increase in the frequency of disruption arises from an increase in the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events in some models, and a non-linear boost in precipitation anomalies during El Niño and La Niña events caused by the associated global warming. This boost occurs even if the underlying sea-surface temperature anomalies during El Niño and La Niña events are unchanged from pre-industrial times. The non-linear boost increases the likelihood that a given El Niño or La Niña event will cause major disruption to rainfall. Unfortunately, even the stringent mitigation represented in RCP2.6 does not prevent further increases in the frequency of disruption: there is a 56% increase in the early twenty first century, and a 61% increase in the late 21st century. Four important conclusions can be drawn from these climate model results. First, the risk of major disruption to Pacific rainfall had already increased by the end of the 20th century and the early 21st century. This means, for example, that some of the disruption actually witnessed in the real world might have been partially due to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gas concentrations that had already occurred by that time. Second, the risk is elevated today relative to pre-industrial times, and will remain elevated over coming years. Third, further increases in the risk of major disruption during the remainder of the 21st century can be strongly moderated if major and sustained cuts to global emissions of GHGs are made, but elevated risk for at least the remainder of the 21st century might arise, even if global action is successful in restricting emissions to RCP2.6 levels.

Exceptional warming in the Western Pacific-Indian Ocean warm pool has contributed to more frequent droughts in eastern Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Peterson, Thomas C.; Stott, Peter A.; Herring, Stephanie

2012-01-01

In 2011, East Africa faced a tragic food crisis that led to famine conditions in parts of Somalia and severe food shortages in parts of Ethiopia and Somalia. While many nonclimatic factors contributed to this crisis (high global food prices, political instability, and chronic poverty, among others) failed rains in both the boreal winter of 2010/11 and the boreal spring of 2011 played a critical role. The back-to-back failures of these rains, which were linked to the dominant La Niña climate and warm SSTs in the central and southeastern Indian Ocean, were particularly problematic since they followed poor rainfall during the spring and summer of 2008 and 2009. In fact, in parts of East Africa, in recent years, there has been a substantial increase in the number of below-normal rainy seasons, which may be related to the warming of the western Pacific and Indian Oceans (for more details, see Funk et al. 2008; Williams and Funk 2011; Williams et al. 2011; Lyon and DeWitt 2012). The basic argument of this work is that recent warming in the Indian–Pacific warm pool (IPWP) enhances the export of geopotential height energy from the warm pool, which tends to produce subsidence across eastern Africa and reduce onshore moisture transports. The general pattern of this disruption has been supported by canonical correlation analyzes and numerical experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model (Funk et al. 2008), diagnostic evaluations of reanalysis data (Williams and Funk 2011; Williams et al. 2011), and SST-driven experiments with ECHAM4.5, ECHAM5, and the Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3.6) (Lyon and DeWitt 2012).

Climatic Drivers Of Seasonal Influenza Epidemics In French Guiana, 2006–2010

PubMed Central

Mahamat, A.; Dussart, P.; Bouix, A.; Carvalho, L.; Eltges, F.; Matheus, S.; Miller, MA.; Quenel, P.; Viboud, C.

2013-01-01

Objectives Influenza seasonality remains poorly studied in Equatorial regions. Here we assessed the seasonal characteristics and environmental drivers of influenza epidemics in French Guiana, where influenza surveillance was established in 2006. Methods Sentinel GPs monitored weekly incidence of Influenza-like illnesses (ILI) from January 2006 through December 2010 and collected nasopharyngeal specimens from patients for virological confirmation. Times series analysis was used to investigate relationship between ILI and climatic parameters (rainfall and specific humidity). Results Based on 1,533 viruses identified during the study period, we observed marked seasonality in the circulation of influenza virus in the pre-pandemic period, followed by year-round activity in the post-pandemic period, with a peak in the rainy season. ILI incidence showed seasonal autoregressive variation based on ARIMA analysis. Multivariate dynamic regression revealed that a 1mm increase of rainfall resulted in an increase of 0.33% in ILI incidence one week later, adjusting for specific humidity (SH). Conversely, an increase of 1g/kg of SH resulted in a decrease of 11% in ILI incidence 3 weeks later, adjusting for rainfall. Conclusions Increased rainfall and low levels of specific humidity favor influenza transmission in French Guiana. PMID:23597784

Vegetation responses to season of fire in an aseasonal, fire-prone fynbos shrubland

PubMed Central

Cowling, Richard M.; van Wilgen, Brian W.; Rikhotso, Diba R.; Difford, Mark

2017-01-01

Season of fire has marked effects on floristic composition in fire-prone Mediterranean-climate shrublands. In these winter-rainfall systems, summer-autumn fires lead to optimal recruitment of overstorey proteoid shrubs (non-sprouting, slow-maturing, serotinous Proteaceae) which are important to the conservation of floral diversity. We explored whether fire season has similar effects on early establishment of five proteoid species in the eastern coastal part of the Cape Floral Kingdom (South Africa) where rainfall occurs year-round and where weather conducive to fire and the actual incidence of fire are largely aseasonal. We surveyed recruitment success (ratio of post-fire recruits to pre-fire parents) of proteoids after fires in different seasons. We also planted proteoid seeds into exclosures, designed to prevent predation by small mammals and birds, in cleared (intended to simulate fire) fynbos shrublands at different sites in each of four seasons and monitored their germination and survival to one year post-planting (hereafter termed ‘recruitment’). Factors (in decreasing order of importance) affecting recruitment success in the post-fire surveys were species, pre-fire parent density, post-fire age of the vegetation at the time of assessment, and fire season, whereas rainfall (for six months post-fire) and fire return interval (>7 years) had little effect. In the seed-planting experiment, germination occurred during the cooler months and mostly within two months of planting, except for summer-plantings, which took 2–3 months longer to germinate. Although recruitment success differed significantly among planting seasons, sites and species, significant interactions occurred among the experimental factors. In both the post-fire surveys and seed planting experiment, recruitment success in relation to fire- or planting season varied greatly within and among species and sites. Results of these two datasets were furthermore inconsistent, suggesting that proteoid recruitment responses are not related to the season of fire. Germination appeared less rainfall-dependent than in winter-rainfall shrublands, suggesting that summer drought-avoiding dormancy is limited and has less influence on variation in recruitment success among fire seasons. The varied response of proteoid recruitment to fire season (or its simulation) implies that burning does not have to be restricted to particular seasons in eastern coastal fynbos, affording more flexibility for fire management than in shrublands associated with winter rainfall. PMID:28828239

Vegetation responses to season of fire in an aseasonal, fire-prone fynbos shrubland.

PubMed

Kraaij, Tineke; Cowling, Richard M; van Wilgen, Brian W; Rikhotso, Diba R; Difford, Mark

2017-01-01

Season of fire has marked effects on floristic composition in fire-prone Mediterranean-climate shrublands. In these winter-rainfall systems, summer-autumn fires lead to optimal recruitment of overstorey proteoid shrubs (non-sprouting, slow-maturing, serotinous Proteaceae) which are important to the conservation of floral diversity. We explored whether fire season has similar effects on early establishment of five proteoid species in the eastern coastal part of the Cape Floral Kingdom (South Africa) where rainfall occurs year-round and where weather conducive to fire and the actual incidence of fire are largely aseasonal. We surveyed recruitment success (ratio of post-fire recruits to pre-fire parents) of proteoids after fires in different seasons. We also planted proteoid seeds into exclosures, designed to prevent predation by small mammals and birds, in cleared (intended to simulate fire) fynbos shrublands at different sites in each of four seasons and monitored their germination and survival to one year post-planting (hereafter termed 'recruitment'). Factors (in decreasing order of importance) affecting recruitment success in the post-fire surveys were species, pre-fire parent density, post-fire age of the vegetation at the time of assessment, and fire season, whereas rainfall (for six months post-fire) and fire return interval (>7 years) had little effect. In the seed-planting experiment, germination occurred during the cooler months and mostly within two months of planting, except for summer-plantings, which took 2-3 months longer to germinate. Although recruitment success differed significantly among planting seasons, sites and species, significant interactions occurred among the experimental factors. In both the post-fire surveys and seed planting experiment, recruitment success in relation to fire- or planting season varied greatly within and among species and sites. Results of these two datasets were furthermore inconsistent, suggesting that proteoid recruitment responses are not related to the season of fire. Germination appeared less rainfall-dependent than in winter-rainfall shrublands, suggesting that summer drought-avoiding dormancy is limited and has less influence on variation in recruitment success among fire seasons. The varied response of proteoid recruitment to fire season (or its simulation) implies that burning does not have to be restricted to particular seasons in eastern coastal fynbos, affording more flexibility for fire management than in shrublands associated with winter rainfall.

Precipitation isotopes link regional climate patterns to water supply in a tropical mountain forest, eastern Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scholl, Martha A.; Murphy, Sheila F.

2014-01-01

Like many mountainous areas in the tropics, watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico have abundant rainfall and stream discharge and provide much of the water supply for the densely populated metropolitan areas nearby. Projected changes in regional temperature and atmospheric dynamics as a result of global warming suggest that water availability will be affected by changes in rainfall patterns. It is essential to understand the relative importance of different weather systems to water supply to determine how changes in rainfall patterns, interacting with geology and vegetation, will affect the water balance. To help determine the links between climate and water availability, stable isotope signatures of precipitation from different weather systems were established to identify those that are most important in maintaining streamflow and groundwater recharge. Precipitation stable isotope values in the Luquillo Mountains had a large range, from fog/cloud water with δ2H, δ18O values as high as +12 ‰, −0.73 ‰ to tropical storm rain with values as low as −127 ‰, −16.8 ‰. Temporal isotope values exhibit a reverse seasonality from those observed in higher latitude continental watersheds, with higher isotopic values in the winter and lower values in the summer. Despite the higher volume of convective and low-pressure system rainfall, stable isotope analyses indicated that under the current rainfall regime, frequent trade -wind orographic showers contribute much of the groundwater recharge and stream base flow. Analysis of rain events using 20 years of 15 -minute resolution data at a mountain station (643 m) showed an increasing trend in rainfall amount, in agreement with increased precipitable water in the atmosphere, but differing from climate model projections of drying in the region. The mean intensity of rain events also showed an increasing trend. The determination of recharge sources from stable isotope tracers indicates that water supply will be affected if regional atmospheric dynamics change trade- wind orographic rainfall patterns in the Caribbean.

The short-term association of temperature and rainfall with mortality in Vadu Health and Demographic Surveillance System: a population level time series analysis

PubMed Central

Ingole, Vijendra; Juvekar, Sanjay; Muralidharan, Veena; Sambhudas, Somnath; Rocklöv, Joacim

2012-01-01

Background Research in mainly developed countries has shown that some changes in weather are associated with increased mortality. However, due to the lack of accessible data, few studies have examined such effects of weather on mortality, particularly in rural regions in developing countries. Objective In this study, we aimed to investigate the relationship between temperature and rainfall with daily mortality in rural India. Design Daily mortality data were obtained from the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in Vadu, India. Daily mean temperature and rainfall data were obtained from a regional meteorological center, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune. A Poisson regression model was established over the study period (January 2003–May 2010) to assess the short-term relationship between weather variables and total mortality, adjusting for time trends and stratifying by both age and sex. Result Mortality was found to be significantly associated with daily ambient temperatures and rainfall, after controlling for seasonality and long-term time trends. Children aged 5 years or below appear particularly susceptible to the effects of warm and cold temperatures and heavy rainfall. The population aged 20–59 years appeared to face increased mortality on hot days. Most age groups were found to have increased mortality rates 7–13 days after rainfall events. This association was particularly evident in women. Conclusion We found the level of mortality in Vadu HDSS in rural India to be highly affected by both high and low temperatures and rainfall events, with time lags of up to 2 weeks. These results suggest that weather-related mortality may be a public health problem in rural India today. Furthermore, as changes in local climate occur, adaptation measures should be considered to mitigate the potentially negative impacts on public health in these rural communities. PMID:23195513

Simulation and Sensitivity in a Nested Modeling System for South America. Part II: GCM Boundary Forcing.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rojas, Maisa; Seth, Anji

2003-08-01

of this study, the RegCM's ability to simulate circulation and rainfall observed in the two extreme seasons was demonstrated when driven at the lateral boundaries by reanalyzed forcing. Seasonal integrations with the RegCM driven by GCM ensemble-derived lateral boundary forcing demonstrate that the nested model responds well to the SST forcing, by capturing the major features of the circulation and rainfall differences between the two years. The GCM-driven model also improves upon the monthly evolution of rainfall compared with that from the GCM. However, the nested model rainfall simulations for the two seasons are degraded compared with those from the reanalyses-driven RegCM integrations. The poor location of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the GCM leads to excess rainfall in Nordeste in the nested model.An expanded domain was tested, wherein the RegCM was permitted more internal freedom to respond to SST and regional orographic forcing. Results show that the RegCM is able to improve the location of the ITCZ, and the seasonal evolution of rainfall in Nordeste, the Amazon region, and the southeastern region of Brazil. However, it remains that the limiting factor in the skill of the nested modeling system is the quality of the lateral boundary forcing provided by the global model.

Identification of deficiencies in seasonal rainfall simulated by CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunning, Caroline M.; Allan, Richard P.; Black, Emily

2017-11-01

An objective technique for analysing seasonality, in terms of regime, progression and timing of the wet seasons, is applied in the evaluation of CMIP5 simulations across continental Africa. Atmosphere-only and coupled integrations capture the gross observed patterns of seasonal progression and give mean onset/cessation dates within 18 days of the observational dates for 11 of the 13 regions considered. Accurate representation of seasonality over central-southern Africa and West Africa (excluding the southern coastline) adds credence for future projected changes in seasonality here. However, coupled simulations exhibit timing biases over the Horn of Africa, with the long rains 20 days late on average. Although both sets of simulations detect biannual rainfall seasonal cycles for East and Central Africa, coupled simulations fail to capture the biannual regime over the southern West African coastline. This is linked with errors in the Gulf of Guinea sea surface temperature (SST) and deficient representation of the SST/rainfall relationship.

Cellulosic ethanol production from warm-season perennial grasses

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Warm-season (C4) perennial grasses are able to produce large quantities of biomass, and will play a key role in bioenergy production, particularly in areas with long warm growing seasons. Several different grass species have been studied as candidate bioenergy crops for the Southeast USA, and each ...

Case studies of seasonal rainfall forecasts for Hong Kong and its vicinity using a regional climate model

Treesearch

David Hui; Karen Shum; Ji Chen; Shyh-Chin Chen; Jack Ritchie; John Roads

2007-01-01

Seasonal climate forecasts are one of the most promising tools for providing early warnings for natural hazards such as floods and droughts. Using two case studies, this paper documents the skill of a regional climate model in the seasonal forecasting of below normal rainfall in southern China during the rainy seasons of July–August–September 2003 and April–...

Miocene vegetation shift and climate change: Evidence from the Siwalik of Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, Gaurav; Paudayal, Khum N.; Utescher, Torsten; Mehrotra, R. C.

2018-02-01

We reconstruct climate and vegetation applying the Coexistence Approach (CA) methodology on two palaeofloras recovered from the Lower (middle Miocene; 13-11 Ma) and Middle Siwalik (late Miocene; 9.5-6.8 Ma) sediments of Surai Khola section, Nepal. The reconstructed mean annual temperature (MAT) and cold month mean temperature (CMT) show an increasing trend, while warm month mean temperature (WMT) remains nearly the same during the period. The reconstructed precipitation data indicates that the summer monsoon precipitation was nearly the same during the middle and late Miocene, while the winter season precipitation significantly decreased in the late Miocene. The overall precipitation infers increased rainfall seasonality during the late Miocene. The vegetation during the middle Miocene was dominated by wet evergreen taxa, whereas deciduous ones increased significantly during the late Miocene. The reconstructed climate data indicates that high temperature and significantly low precipitation during the winter season (dry season) in the late Miocene might have enhanced forest fire which favoured the expansion of C4 plants over C3 plants during the period. This idea gets further support not only from a recent forest fire in northern India that was caused by the weakening of winter precipitation, but also from the burnt wood recovered from the late Miocene Siwalik sediments of northern India.

Experimental warming of a mountain tundra increases soil CO2 effluxes and enhances CH4 and N2O uptake at Changbai Mountain, China

PubMed Central

Zhou, Yumei; Hagedorn, Frank; Zhou, Chunliang; Jiang, Xiaojie; Wang, Xiuxiu; Li, Mai-He

2016-01-01

Climatic warming is expected to particularly alter greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soils in cold ecosystems such as tundra. We used 1 m2 open-top chambers (OTCs) during three growing seasons to examine how warming (+0.8–1.2 °C) affects the fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) from alpine tundra soils. Results showed that OTC warming increased soil CO2 efflux by 141% in the first growing season and by 45% in the second and third growing season. The mean CH4 flux of the three growing seasons was −27.6 and −16.7 μg CH4-C m−2h−1 in the warmed and control treatment, respectively. Fluxes of N2O switched between net uptake and emission. Warming didn’t significantly affect N2O emission during the first and the second growing season, but stimulated N2O uptake in the third growing season. The global warming potential of GHG was clearly dominated by soil CO2 effluxes (>99%) and was increased by the OTC warming. In conclusion, soil temperature is the main controlling factor for soil respiration in this tundra. Climate warming will lead to higher soil CO2 emissions but also to an enhanced CH4 uptake with an overall increase of the global warming potential for tundra. PMID:26880107

Evidence For Decadal and Century Scale Climate and Oceanic Variability in the Guaymas Basin, Gulf of California, Over the Last Millenium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pineda, L.; Ravelo, A. C.; Aiello, I. W.; Stewart, Z.; Sauthoff, W.

2015-12-01

Linda Pineda1Ana Christina Ravelo2Ivano Aiello3Zach Stewart2Wilson Sauthoff2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Department, UCSC Ocean Sciences Department, UCSC Moss Landing Marine Lab Natural climate change affects coastal water resources, human land use, and marine biological productivity. In particular, the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is influenced by changes in global-scale temperature and pressure gradients and is responsible for spatial changes in summertime rainfall in Mesoamerica impacting regional water resources and the strength of upwelling. In October 2014, aboard the Research Vessel El Puma, a 3.9 meter long core (G14-P12) was recovered from the Northeast flank of the Guaymas Basin in the Gulf of California within the oxygen minimum zone (27˚52.11'N, 111˚41.51'W, water depth of 677m) to investigate changes in seasonal upwelling and Central Mexico rainfall over the last ~1000 years. The age model was developed using Pb210, C14 and lamination counting. The time interval includes the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period. Biological productivity and precipitation proxy records were produced using an X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) core-scanner and a color line scanner to generate a record of bulk chemistry and color reflectance. The records indicate marked decadal and centennial scale variability in the lithologic composition of the sediment superimposed on millimeter-scale variability that reflects the presence of seasonally laminated sediments. Nitrogen isotopic and nitrogen weight % measurements were used, in combination with the scanned data, to interpret changes in nitrate utilization and biological productivity. These new records will have broad implications on the link between regional coastal environmental conditions in the Gulf of California and global climate change.

Climate Effects on Corn Yield in Missouri(.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Qi; Buyanovsky, Gregory

2003-11-01

Understanding climate effects on crop yield has been a continuous endeavor aiming at improving farming technology and management strategy, minimizing negative climate effects, and maximizing positive climate effects on yield. Many studies have examined climate effects on corn yield in different regions of the United States. However, most of those studies used yield and climate records that were shorter than 10 years and were for different years and localities. Although results of those studies showed various influences of climate on corn yield, they could be time specific and have been difficult to use for deriving a comprehensive understanding of climate effects on corn yield. In this study, climate effects on corn yield in central Missouri are examined using unique long-term (1895 1998) datasets of both corn yield and climate. Major results show that the climate effects on corn yield can only be explained by within-season variations in rainfall and temperature and cannot be distinguished by average growing-season conditions. Moreover, the growing-season distributions of rainfall and temperature for high-yield years are characterized by less rainfall and warmer temperature in the planting period, a rapid increase in rainfall, and more rainfall and warmer temperatures during germination and emergence. More rainfall and cooler-than-average temperatures are key features in the anthesis and kernel-filling periods from June through August, followed by less rainfall and warmer temperatures during the September and early October ripening time. Opposite variations in rainfall and temperature in the growing season correspond to low yield. Potential applications of these results in understanding how climate change may affect corn yield in the region also are discussed.

Diagnosing the Atmospheric/Oceanic Phenomena Associated with the Onset, Demise and Mid-Summer Drought of the Rainy Season in Mesoamerica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groenen, D.; Bourassa, M. A.

2017-12-01

The rainfall in Mesoamerica (Mexico and Central America) has influences from two bodies of water, interesting topography, and complex wind patterns, which complicates weather forecasting. Knowing the approximate onset and demise of the rainy season is critical for the optimal growth and development of key crops in this region such as coffee, bananas, rice, and maize. This study compares three methods to calculate the onset/demise dates of the individual years' rainy season, using area-averaged rainfall data (7-28 °N/77-109 °W) from two datasets. After these onset/demise dates are obtained using rainfall data, the atmospheric and oceanic phenomena associated with the timing is analyzed using MERRA-2 reanalysis data. The objective is to link the large-scale phenomena to the individual years' onset/demise dates, as well as link the weather phenomena to the interannual variability of the onset/demise dates. In addition, the broad scale rainy season will be connected with regional onset/demise dates on the scale of 400km. Linking the broad scale rainfall regimes to the regional regimes will allow a more cohesive view of the dynamics related to rainfall variability in the Mesoamerican region. A smoothing method will be used to analyze the timing and intensity of the mid-summer drought (MSD), a minimum in rainfall typically occurring during July and August. The goal of this research is to link the physical and dynamical mechanisms that cause the Mesoamerican rainy season and mid-summer drought (MSD) in order to better understand the predictability of Mesoamerican rainfall and ensure the health and safety of key crops.

Fires in Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest: Testing the Varying Constraints Hypothesis across a Regional Rainfall Gradient.

PubMed

Mondal, Nandita; Sukumar, Raman

2016-01-01

The "varying constraints hypothesis" of fire in natural ecosystems postulates that the extent of fire in an ecosystem would differ according to the relative contribution of fuel load and fuel moisture available, factors that vary globally along a spatial gradient of climatic conditions. We examined if the globally widespread seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) can be placed as a single entity in this framework by analyzing environmental influences on fire extent in a structurally diverse SDTF landscape in the Western Ghats of southern India, representative of similar forests in monsoonal south and southeast Asia. We used logistic regression to model fire extent with factors that represent fuel load and fuel moisture at two levels-the overall landscape and within four defined moisture regimes (between 700 and1700 mm yr-1)-using a dataset of area burnt and seasonal rainfall from 1990 to 2010. The landscape scale model showed that the extent of fire in a given year within this SDTF is dependent on the combined interaction of seasonal rainfall and extent burnt the previous year. Within individual moisture regimes the relative contribution of these factors to the annual extent burnt varied-early dry season rainfall (i.e., fuel moisture) was the predominant factor in the wettest regime, while wet season rainfall (i.e., fuel load) had a large influence on fire extent in the driest regime. Thus, the diverse structural vegetation types associated with SDTFs across a wide range of rainfall regimes would have to be examined at finer regional or local scales to understand the specific environmental drivers of fire. Our results could be extended to investigating fire-climate relationships in STDFs of monsoonal Asia.

Fires in Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest: Testing the Varying Constraints Hypothesis across a Regional Rainfall Gradient

PubMed Central

Mondal, Nandita; Sukumar, Raman

2016-01-01

The “varying constraints hypothesis” of fire in natural ecosystems postulates that the extent of fire in an ecosystem would differ according to the relative contribution of fuel load and fuel moisture available, factors that vary globally along a spatial gradient of climatic conditions. We examined if the globally widespread seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) can be placed as a single entity in this framework by analyzing environmental influences on fire extent in a structurally diverse SDTF landscape in the Western Ghats of southern India, representative of similar forests in monsoonal south and southeast Asia. We used logistic regression to model fire extent with factors that represent fuel load and fuel moisture at two levels—the overall landscape and within four defined moisture regimes (between 700 and1700 mm yr-1)—using a dataset of area burnt and seasonal rainfall from 1990 to 2010. The landscape scale model showed that the extent of fire in a given year within this SDTF is dependent on the combined interaction of seasonal rainfall and extent burnt the previous year. Within individual moisture regimes the relative contribution of these factors to the annual extent burnt varied—early dry season rainfall (i.e., fuel moisture) was the predominant factor in the wettest regime, while wet season rainfall (i.e., fuel load) had a large influence on fire extent in the driest regime. Thus, the diverse structural vegetation types associated with SDTFs across a wide range of rainfall regimes would have to be examined at finer regional or local scales to understand the specific environmental drivers of fire. Our results could be extended to investigating fire-climate relationships in STDFs of monsoonal Asia. PMID:27441689

Seasonal Water Balance Forecasts for Drought Early Warning in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spirig, Christoph; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark

2016-04-01

Droughts severely impact Ethiopian agricultural production. Successful early warning for drought conditions in the upcoming harvest season therefore contributes to better managing food shortages arising from adverse climatic conditions. So far, however, meteorological seasonal forecasts have not been used in Ethiopia's national food security early warning system (i.e. the LEAP platform). Here we analyse the forecast quality of seasonal forecasts of total rainfall and of the meteorological water balance as a proxy for plant available water. We analyse forecast skill of June to September rainfall and water balance from dynamical seasonal forecast systems, the ECMWF System4 and EC-EARTH global forecasting systems. Rainfall forecasts outperform forecasts assuming a stationary climate mainly in north-eastern Ethiopia - an area that is particularly vulnerable to droughts. Forecasts of the water balance index seem to be even more skilful and thus more useful than pure rainfall forecasts. The results vary though for different lead times and skill measures employed. We further explore the potential added value of dynamically downscaling the forecasts through several dynamical regional climate models made available through the EU FP7 project EUPORIAS. Preliminary results suggest that dynamically downscaled seasonal forecasts are not significantly better compared with seasonal forecasts from the global models. We conclude that seasonal forecasts of a simple climate index such as the water balance have the potential to benefit drought early warning in Ethiopia, both due to its positive predictive skill and higher usefulness than seasonal mean quantities.

Seasonal responses of soil respiration to warming and nitrogen addition in a semi-arid alfalfa-pasture of the Loess Plateau, China.

PubMed

Fang, Chao; Ye, Jian-Sheng; Gong, Yanhong; Pei, Jiuying; Yuan, Ziqiang; Xie, Chan; Zhu, Yusi; Yu, Yueyuan

2017-07-15

Responses of soil respiration (R s ) to increasing nitrogen (N) deposition and warming will have far-reaching influences on global carbon (C) cycling. However, the seasonal (growing and non-growing seasons) difference of R s responses to warming and N deposition has rarely been investigated. We conducted a field manipulative experiment in a semi-arid alfalfa-pasture of northwest China to evaluate the response of R s to nitrogen addition and warming from March 2014 to March 2016. Open-top chambers were used to elevate temperature and N was enriched at a rate of 4.42g m -2 yr -1 with NH 4 NO 3 . Results showed that (1) N addition increased R s by 14% over the two-year period; and (2) warming stimulated R s by 15% in the non-growing season, while inhibited it by 5% in the growing season, which can be explained by decreased plant coverage and soil water. The main effect of N addition did not change with time, but that of warming changed with time, with the stronger inhibition observed in the dry year. When N addition and warming were combined, an antagonistic effect was observed in the growing season, whereas a synergism was observed in the non-growing season. Overall, warming and N addition did not affect the Q10 values over the two-year period, but these treatments significantly increased the Q10 values in the growing season compared with the control treatment. In comparison, combined warming and nitrogen addition significantly reduced the Q10 values compared with the single factor treatment. These results suggest that the negative indirect effect of warming-induced water stress overrides the positive direct effect of warming on R s . Our results also imply the necessity of considering the different R s responses in the growing and non-growing seasons to climate change to accurately evaluate the carbon cycle in the arid and semi-arid regions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Animal perception of seasonal thresholds: changes in elephant movement in relation to rainfall patterns.

PubMed

Birkett, Patricia J; Vanak, Abi T; Muggeo, Vito M R; Ferreira, Salamon M; Slotow, Rob

2012-01-01

The identification of temporal thresholds or shifts in animal movement informs ecologists of changes in an animal's behaviour, which contributes to an understanding of species' responses in different environments. In African savannas, rainfall, temperature and primary productivity influence the movements of large herbivores and drive changes at different scales. Here, we developed a novel approach to define seasonal shifts in movement behaviour by examining the movements of a highly mobile herbivore (elephant; Loxodonta africana), in relation to local and regional rainfall patterns. We used speed to determine movement changes of between 8 and 14 GPS-collared elephant cows, grouped into five spatial clusters, in Kruger National Park, South Africa. To detect broad-scale patterns of movement, we ran a three-year daily time-series model for each individual (2007-2009). Piecewise regression models provided the best fit for elephant movement, which exhibited a segmented, waveform pattern over time. Major breakpoints in speed occurred at the end of the dry and wet seasons of each year. During the dry season, female elephant are constrained by limited forage and thus the distances they cover are shorter and less variable. Despite the inter-annual variability of rainfall, speed breakpoints were strongly correlated with both local and regional rainfall breakpoints across all three years. Thus, at a multi-year scale, rainfall patterns significantly affect the movements of elephant. The variability of both speed and rainfall breakpoints across different years highlights the need for an objective definition of seasonal boundaries. By using objective criteria to determine behavioural shifts, we identified a biologically meaningful indicator of major changes in animal behaviour in different years. We recommend the use of such criteria, from an animal's perspective, for delineating seasons or other extrinsic shifts in ecological studies, rather than arbitrarily fixed definitions based on convention or common practice.

Analysis of long-term changes in extreme climatic indices: a case study of the Mediterranean climate, Marmara Region, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasnia, Mohsen; Toros, Hüseyin

2018-05-01

This study aimed to analyze extreme temperature and precipitation indices at seven stations in the Marmara Region of Turkey for the period 1961-2016. The trend of temperature indices showed that the warm-spell duration and the numbers of summer days, tropical nights, warm nights, and warm days have increased, while the cold-spell duration and number of ice days, cool nights, and cool days have decreased across the Marmara Region. Additionally, the diurnal temperature range has slightly increased at most of the stations. A majority of stations have shown significant warming trends for warm days and warm nights throughout the study area, whereas warm extremes and night-time based temperature indices have shown stronger trends compared to cold extremes and day-time indices. The analysis of precipitation indices has mostly shown increasing trends in consecutive dry days and increasing trends in annual rainfall, rainfall intensity for inland and urban stations, especially for stations in Sariyer and Edirne, which are affected by a fast rate of urbanization. Overall, a large proportion of study stations have experienced an increase in annual precipitation and heavy precipitation events, although there was a low percentage of results that was significant. Therefore, it is expected that the rainfall events will tend to become shorter and more intense, the occurrence of temperature extremes will become more pronounced in favor of hotter events, and there will be an increase in the atmospheric moisture content over the Marmara Region. This provides regional evidence for the importance of ongoing research on climate change.

The impact of annual and seasonal rainfall patterns on growth and phenology of emergent tree species in Southeastern Amazonia, Brazil

Treesearch

James Grogan; Mark Schulze

2012-01-01

Understanding tree growth in response to rainfall distribution is critical to predicting forest and species population responses to climate change. We investigated inter-annual and seasonal variation in stem diameter by three emergent tree species in a seasonally dry tropical forest in southeast Pará, Brazil. Annual diameter growth rates by Swietenia macrophylla...

Influences of the Agulhas Current on South African terrestrial climate as inferred from speleothem stable isotope records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, K.; Bar-Matthews, M.; Ayalon, A.; Marean, C.; Herries, A. I. R.; Zahn, R.; Matthews, A.

2012-04-01

South African (SA) climate is strongly influenced by the circulation systems surrounding the subcontinent. The warm tropical Agulhas Current provides large amounts of moisture, transported onshore by south-easterly trade winds during summer. As the trade wind shifts north during winter, the south-western tip of SA is especially affected by temperate westerlies. High amounts of rainfall from the Benguela region off the west coast then only affect the very south-west of the country. This seasonal pattern creates a highly variable terrestrial climate, characterized by strong E-W gradients in the seasonal distribution and amount of rainfall. As summer and winter rain is derived from sources with different properties (density, salinity, temperature), the rainfall also displays seasonal isotopic compositional variations, as for example the present mean δ18O of rainfall in Mossel Bay located in the transition region varies from ~0.13‰ in January to -6.05‰ in July. Vegetation type (C3 vs C4) also follows the rainfall regime with C4 vegetation dominating in the summer rainfall region. As part of the GATEWAYS project, speleothems are used as an excellent, high resolution, precisely dated archive of terrestrial paleoenvironmental conditions[1]. This study focuses on a speleothem record from Crevice Cave on the South African south coast (near Mossel Bay), covering the interval between ~111 and ~53 ka[1,2]. At present, the area is influenced by both summer and winter rainfall, and has mostly C3 type vegetation. Variations in the past show more positive δ18O and δ13C values in the interval corresponding to the glacial MIS 4 and indicate increased summer rainfall and C4 vegetation. This contradicts the common assumption that MIS 4 was characterized by a northward shift of the climatic belts over SA and an increase of winter rainfall and C3 vegetation in the cave area[3]. Comparison of the record to marine sediment cores from the Agulhas Retroflection area[4] and the Cape Basin[5,6] as well as an ice-core record from Antarctica[7] reveal that the speleothem δ18O and δ13C are more closely related to the sea surface temperature shifts in the Agulhas region and Antarctica (with lower δ18O and δ13C values corresponding to higher temperatures) than to the influence of global ice-volume related changes in the isotopic composition of the ocean. A contemporary record from a cave site situated ~92 km inland from Mossel Bay (E-Flux Cave, Klein Karoo) shows a very different signal, corresponding to overall changes in Obliquity[8]. The influence of the Agulhas Current is thus apparent on the coast, but reduced inland. [1] Bar-Matthews, M. et al. 2010. Quaternary Science Reviews 29 p2131. [2] Braun, K. et al. 2011. Conference Abstract, Climate Change - The Karst Record 6. Birmingham England p27. [3] Chase, B. M. & Meadows, M. E., 2007. Earth-Science Reviews 84 p103. [4] Cortese, G. et al. 2004. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 222 p767. [5] Martínez-Méndez, G. et al. (2010). Paleoceanography 25(PA4227): doi:10.1029/2009PA001879. [6] Peeters, F. J. C. et al. 2004. Nature 430 p661. [7] Petit, J. R. et al. 1999. Nature 399 p429. [8] Berger, A. L. 1978. Quaternary Research 9 p139.

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sigmond, M.; Scinocca, J. F.; Kharin, V. V.; Shepherd, T. G.

2013-02-01

Advances in seasonal forecasting have brought widespread socio-economic benefits. However, seasonal forecast skill in the extratropics is relatively modest, prompting the seasonal forecasting community to search for additional sources of predictability. For over a decade it has been suggested that knowledge of the state of the stratosphere can act as a source of enhanced seasonal predictability; long-lived circulation anomalies in the lower stratosphere that follow stratospheric sudden warmings are associated with circulation anomalies in the troposphere that can last up to two months. Here, we show by performing retrospective ensemble model forecasts that such enhanced predictability can be realized in a dynamical seasonal forecast system with a good representation of the stratosphere. When initialized at the onset date of stratospheric sudden warmings, the model forecasts faithfully reproduce the observed mean tropospheric conditions in the months following the stratospheric sudden warmings. Compared with an equivalent set of forecasts that are not initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings, we document enhanced forecast skill for atmospheric circulation patterns, surface temperatures over northern Russia and eastern Canada and North Atlantic precipitation. We suggest that seasonal forecast systems initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings are likely to yield significantly greater forecast skill in some regions.

Statistical bias correction modelling for seasonal rainfall forecast for the case of Bali island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lealdi, D.; Nurdiati, S.; Sopaheluwakan, A.

2018-04-01

Rainfall is an element of climate which is highly influential to the agricultural sector. Rain pattern and distribution highly determines the sustainability of agricultural activities. Therefore, information on rainfall is very useful for agriculture sector and farmers in anticipating the possibility of extreme events which often cause failures of agricultural production. This research aims to identify the biases from seasonal forecast products from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) rainfall forecast and to build a transfer function in order to correct the distribution biases as a new prediction model using quantile mapping approach. We apply this approach to the case of Bali Island, and as a result, the use of bias correction methods in correcting systematic biases from the model gives better results. The new prediction model obtained with this approach is better than ever. We found generally that during rainy season, the bias correction approach performs better than in dry season.

Evaluation of satellite rainfall estimates for drought and flood monitoring in Mozambique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tote, Carolien; Patricio, Domingos; Boogaard, Hendrik; van der Wijngaart, Raymond; Tarnavsky, Elena; Funk, Christopher C.

2015-01-01

Satellite derived rainfall products are useful for drought and flood early warning and overcome the problem of sparse, unevenly distributed and erratic rain gauge observations, provided their accuracy is well known. Mozambique is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as major droughts and floods and thus, an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different rainfall products is valuable. Three dekadal (10-day) gridded satellite rainfall products (TAMSAT African Rainfall Climatology And Time-series (TARCAT) v2.0, Famine Early Warning System NETwork (FEWS NET) Rainfall Estimate (RFE) v2.0, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS)) are compared to independent gauge data (2001–2012). This is done using pairwise comparison statistics to evaluate the performance in estimating rainfall amounts and categorical statistics to assess rain-detection capabilities. The analysis was performed for different rainfall categories, over the seasonal cycle and for regions dominated by different weather systems. Overall, satellite products overestimate low and underestimate high dekadal rainfall values. The RFE and CHIRPS products perform as good, generally outperforming TARCAT on the majority of statistical measures of skill. TARCAT detects best the relative frequency of rainfall events, while RFE underestimates and CHIRPS overestimates the rainfall events frequency. Differences in products performance disappear with higher rainfall and all products achieve better results during the wet season. During the cyclone season, CHIRPS shows the best results, while RFE outperforms the other products for lower dekadal rainfall. Products blending thermal infrared and passive microwave imagery perform better than infrared only products and particularly when meteorological patterns are more complex, such as over the coastal, central and south regions of Mozambique, where precipitation is influenced by frontal systems.

The hydroclimatological response to global warming based on the dynamically downscaled climate change scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Im, Eun-Soon; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Felippo

2010-05-01

Given the discernable evidences of climate changes due to human activity, there is a growing demand for the reliable climate change scenario in response to future emission forcing. One of the most significant impacts of climate changes can be that on the hydrological process. Changes in the seasonality and increase in the low and high rainfall extremes can severely influence the water balance of river basin, with serious consequences for societies and ecosystems. In fact, recent studies have reported that East Asia including the Korean peninsula is regarded to be a highly vulnerability region under global warming, in particular for water resources. As an attempt accurately assess the impact of climate change over Korea, we performed a downscaling of the ECAHM5-MPI/OM global projection under the A1B emission scenario for the period 1971-2100 using the RegCM3 one-way double-nested system. Physically based long-term (130 years) fine-scale (20 km) climate information is appropriate for analyzing the detailed structure of the hydroclimatological response to climate change. Changes in temperature and precipitation are translated to the hydrological condition in a direct or indirect way. The change in precipitation shows a distinct seasonal variations and a complicated spatial pattern. While changes in total precipitation do not show any relevant trend, the change patterns in daily precipitation clearly show an enhancement of high intensity precipitation and a reduction of weak intensity precipitation. The increase of temperature enhances the evapotranspiration, and hence the actual water stress becomes more pronounced in the future climate. Precipitation, snow, and runoff changes show the relevant topographical modulation under global warming. This study clearly demonstrates the importance of a refined topography for improving the accuracy of the local climatology. Improved accuracy of regional climate projection could lead to an enhanced reliability of the interpretation of the warming effect, especially when viewed in the linkage climate change information and impact assessment studies.

Spatial-temporal variations of dominant drought/flood modes and the associated atmospheric circulation and ocean events in rainy season over the east of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shaoni; Huang, Fei

2012-06-01

By using Season-reliant Empirical Orthogonal Function (S-EOF) analysis, three dominant modes of the spatial-temporal evolution of the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China are revealed for the period of 1960-2004. The first two leading modes occur during the turnabout phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) decaying year, but the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China are different due to the role of the Indian Ocean (IO). The first leading mode appears closely correlated with the ENSO events. In the decaying year of El Niño, the associated western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclone located over the Philippine Sea persists from the previous winter to the next early summer, transports warm and moist air toward the southern Yangtze River in China, and leads to wet conditions over this entire region. Therefore, the precipitation anomaly in summer exhibits a `Southern Flood and Northern Drought' pattern over East China. On the other hand, the basin-wide Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) plays a crucial role in prolonging the impact of ENSO on the second mode during the ENSO decaying summer. The Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) warming persists through summer and unleashes its influence, which forces a Matsuno-Gill pattern in the upper troposphere. Over the subtropical western North Pacific, an anomalous anticyclone forms in the lower troposphere. The southerlies on the northwest flank of this anticyclone increase the moisture transport onto central China, leading to abundant rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys. The anomalous anticyclone causes dry conditions over South China and the South China Sea (SCS). The precipitation anomaly in summer exhibits a `Northern Flood and Southern Drought' pattern over East China. Therefore, besides the ENSO event the IOBM is an important factor to influence the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China. The third mode is positively correlated with the tropical SSTA in the Indian Ocean from the spring of preceding year(-1) to the winter of following year(+1), but not related to the ENSO events. The positive SSTA in the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea persists from spring to autumn, leading to weak north-south and land-sea thermal contrasts, which may weaken the intensity of the East Asia summer monsoon. The weakened rainfall over the northern Indian monsoon region may link to the third spatial mode through the `Silk Road' teleconnection or a part of circumglobal teleconnection (CGT). The physical mechanisms that reveal these linkages remain elusive and invite further investigation.

Component Analysis of Errors on PERSIANN Precipitation Estimates over Urmia Lake Basin, IRAN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghajarnia, N.; Daneshkar Arasteh, P.; Liaghat, A. M.; Araghinejad, S.

2016-12-01

In this study, PERSIANN daily dataset is evaluated from 2000 to 2011 in 69 pixels over Urmia Lake basin in northwest of Iran. Different analytical approaches and indexes are used to examine PERSIANN precision in detection and estimation of rainfall rate. The residuals are decomposed into Hit, Miss and FA estimation biases while continues decomposition of systematic and random error components are also analyzed seasonally and categorically. New interpretation of estimation accuracy named "reliability on PERSIANN estimations" is introduced while the changing manners of existing categorical/statistical measures and error components are also seasonally analyzed over different rainfall rate categories. This study yields new insights into the nature of PERSIANN errors over Urmia lake basin as a semi-arid region in the middle-east, including the followings: - The analyzed contingency table indexes indicate better detection precision during spring and fall. - A relatively constant level of error is generally observed among different categories. The range of precipitation estimates at different rainfall rate categories is nearly invariant as a sign for the existence of systematic error. - Low level of reliability is observed on PERSIANN estimations at different categories which are mostly associated with high level of FA error. However, it is observed that as the rate of precipitation increase, the ability and precision of PERSIANN in rainfall detection also increases. - The systematic and random error decomposition in this area shows that PERSIANN has more difficulty in modeling the system and pattern of rainfall rather than to have bias due to rainfall uncertainties. The level of systematic error also considerably increases in heavier rainfalls. It is also important to note that PERSIANN error characteristics at each season varies due to the condition and rainfall patterns of that season which shows the necessity of seasonally different approach for the calibration of this product. Overall, we believe that different error component's analysis performed in this study, can substantially help any further local studies for post-calibration and bias reduction of PERSIANN estimations.

Synergistic effects of seasonal rainfall, parasites and demography on fluctuations in springbok body condition

PubMed Central

Turner, Wendy C.; Versfeld, Wilferd D.; Kilian, J. Werner; Getz, Wayne M.

2011-01-01

Summary 1. Seasonality of rainfall can exert a strong influence on animal condition and on host-parasite interactions. The body condition of ruminants fluctuates seasonally in response to changes in energy requirements, foraging patterns and resource availability, and seasonal variation in parasite infections may further alter ruminant body condition. 2. This study disentangles effects of rainfall and gastrointestinal parasite infections on springbok (Antidorcas marsupialis) body condition and determines how these factors vary among demographic groups. 3. Using data from four years and three study areas, we investigated i) the influence of rainfall variation, demographic factors and parasite interactions on parasite prevalence or infection intensity, ii) whether parasitism or rainfall is a more important predictor of springbok body condition and iii) how parasitism and condition vary among study areas along a rainfall gradient. 4. We found that increased parasite intensity is associated with reduced body condition only for adult females. For all other demographic groups, body condition was significantly related to prior rainfall and not to parasitism. Rainfall lagged by two months had a positive effect on body condition. 5. Adult females showed evidence of a “periparturient rise” in parasite intensity, and had higher parasite intensity and lower body condition than adult males after parturition and during early lactation. After juveniles were weaned, adult females had lower parasite intensity than adult males. Sex differences in parasitism and condition may be due to differences between adult females and males in the seasonal timing of reproductive effort and its effects on host immunity, as well as documented sex differences in vulnerability to predation. 6. Our results highlight that parasites and the environment can synergistically affect host populations, but that these interactions might be masked by their interwoven relationships, their differential impacts on demographic groups, and the different time scales at which they operate. PMID:21831195

Does GPM-based multi-satellite precipitation enhance rainfall estimates over Pakistan and Bolivia arid regions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Y.; Satgé, F.; Bonnet, M. P.; Pillco, R.; Molina, J.; Timouk, F.; Roig, H.; Martinez-Carvajal, H., Sr.; Gulraiz, A.

2016-12-01

Arid regions are sensitive to rainfall variations which are expressed in the form of flooding and droughts. Unfortunately, those regions are poorly monitored and high quality rainfall estimates are still needed. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission released two new satellite rainfall products named Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals GPM (IMERG) and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation version 6 (GSMaP-v6) bringing the possibility of accurate rainfall monitoring over these countries. This study assessed both products at monthly scale over Pakistan considering dry and wet season over the 4 main climatic zones from 2014 to 2016. With similar climatic conditions, the Altiplano region of Bolivia is considered to quantify the influence of big lakes (Titicaca and Poopó) in rainfall estimates. For comparison, the widely used TRMM-Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B43 (TMPA-3B43) version 7 is also involved in the analysis to observe the potential enhancement in rainfall estimate brought by GPM products. Rainfall estimates derived from 110 rain-gauges are used as reference to compare IMERG, GSMaP-v6 and TMPA-3B43 at the 0.1° and 0.25° spatial resolution. Over both regions, IMERG and GSMaP-v6 capture the spatial pattern of precipitation as well as TMPA-3B43. All products tend to over estimates rainfall over very arid regions. This feature is even more marked during dry season. However, during this season, both reference and estimated rainfall remain very low and do not impact seasonal water budget computation. On a general way, IMERG slightly outperforms TMPA-3B43 and GSMaP-v6 which provides the less accurate rainfall estimate. The TMPA-3B43 rainfall underestimation previously found over Lake Titicaca is still observed in IMERG estimates. However, GSMaP-v6 considerably decreases the underestimation providing the most accurate rainfall estimate over the lake. MOD11C3 Land Surface Temperature (LST) and ASTER Global Emissivity Dataset reveal strong LST and Emissivity anomaly over the lake in comparison with surrounding lands. These anomalies should explain rainfall underestimations tendency over this lake. LST and Emissivity of lake Poopó are closest to surrounding land and the slight observed rainfall overestimation appears to be related to the very arid context of the region.

Assimilating Non-linear Effects of Customized Large-Scale Climate Predictors on Downscaled Precipitation over the Tropical Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina, J. M.; Zaitchik, B. F.

2016-12-01

Recent findings considering high CO2 emission scenarios (RCP8.5) suggest that the tropical Andes may experience a massive warming and a significant precipitation increase (decrease) during the wet (dry) seasons by the end of the 21st century. Variations on rainfall-streamflow relationships and seasonal crop yields significantly affect human development in this region and make local communities highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. We developed an expert-informed empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) algorithm to explore and construct robust global climate predictors to perform skillful RCP8.5 projections of in-situ March-May (MAM) precipitation required for impact modeling and adaptation studies. We applied our framework to a topographically-complex region of the Colombian Andes where a number of previous studies have reported El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the main driver of climate variability. Supervised machine learning algorithms were trained with customized and bias-corrected predictors from NCEP reanalysis, and a cross-validation approach was implemented to assess both predictive skill and model selection. We found weak and not significant teleconnections between precipitation and lagged seasonal surface temperatures over El Niño3.4 domain, which suggests that ENSO fails to explain MAM rainfall variability in the study region. In contrast, series of Sea Level Pressure (SLP) over American Samoa -likely associated with the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)- explains more than 65% of the precipitation variance. The best prediction skill was obtained with Selected Generalized Additive Models (SGAM) given their ability to capture linear/nonlinear relationships present in the data. While SPCZ-related series exhibited a positive linear effect in the rainfall response, SLP predictors in the north Atlantic and central equatorial Pacific showed nonlinear effects. A multimodel (MIROC, CanESM2 and CCSM) ensemble of ESD projections revealed an increased variability and a positive and significant trend in the MAM precipitation mean in the next decades, with accentuated changes and projection uncertainty after 2050. ESD traces (2050-2100) from MIROC presented the highest changes in the precipitation mean ( 60%) when compared with the observations.

Modeling and forecasting rainfall patterns of southwest monsoons in North-East India as a SARIMA process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narasimha Murthy, K. V.; Saravana, R.; Vijaya Kumar, K.

2018-02-01

Weather forecasting is an important issue in the field of meteorology all over the world. The pattern and amount of rainfall are the essential factors that affect agricultural systems. India experiences the precious Southwest monsoon season for four months from June to September. The present paper describes an empirical study for modeling and forecasting the time series of Southwest monsoon rainfall patterns in the North-East India. The Box-Jenkins Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) methodology has been adopted for model identification, diagnostic checking and forecasting for this region. The study has shown that the SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1)4 model is appropriate for analyzing and forecasting the future rainfall patterns. The Analysis of Means (ANOM) is a useful alternative to the analysis of variance (ANOVA) for comparing the group of treatments to study the variations and critical comparisons of rainfall patterns in different months of the season.

Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sultan, B.; Guan, K.; Kouressy, M.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.; Lobell, D. B.

2014-10-01

West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031-2060 compared to a baseline of 1961-1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16-20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential adaptation to ongoing climate changes. Easing nitrogen stress via increasing fertilizer inputs would increase absolute yields, but also make the crops more responsive to climate stresses, thus enhancing the negative impacts of climate change in a relative sense. Finally, CO2 fertilization would significantly offset the negative climate impacts on sorghum yields by about 10%, with drier regions experiencing the largest benefits, though the net impacts of climate change remain negative even after accounting for CO2.

Plants regulate the effects of experimental warming on the soil microbial community in an alpine scrub ecosystem.

PubMed

Ma, Zhiliang; Zhao, Wenqiang; Zhao, Chunzhang; Wang, Dong; Liu, Mei; Li, Dandan; Liu, Qing

2018-01-01

Information on how soil microbial communities respond to warming is still scarce for alpine scrub ecosystems. We conducted a field experiment with two plant treatments (plant removal or undisturbed) subjected to warmed or unwarmed conditions to examine the effects of warming and plant removal on soil microbial community structures during the growing season in a Sibiraea angustata scrubland of the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The results indicate that experimental warming significantly influenced soil microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and microbial biomass nitrogen (MBN), but the warming effects were dependent on the plant treatments and sampling seasons. In the plant-removal plots, warming did not affect most of the microbial variables, while in the undisturbed plots, warming significantly increased the abundances of actinomycete and Gram-positive bacterial groups during the mid-growing season (July), but it did not affect the fungi groups. Plant removal significantly reduced fungal abundance throughout the growing season and significantly altered the soil microbial community structure in July. The interaction between warming and plant removal significantly influenced the soil MBC and MBN and the abundances of total microbes, bacteria and actinomycete throughout the growing season. Experimental warming significantly reduced the abundance of rare taxa, while the interaction between warming and plant removal tended to have strong effects on the abundant taxa. These findings suggest that the responses of soil microbial communities to warming are regulated by plant communities. These results provide new insights into how soil microbial community structure responds to climatic warming in alpine scrub ecosystems.

Plants regulate the effects of experimental warming on the soil microbial community in an alpine scrub ecosystem

PubMed Central

Ma, Zhiliang; Zhao, Wenqiang; Zhao, Chunzhang; Wang, Dong; Liu, Mei; Li, Dandan

2018-01-01

Information on how soil microbial communities respond to warming is still scarce for alpine scrub ecosystems. We conducted a field experiment with two plant treatments (plant removal or undisturbed) subjected to warmed or unwarmed conditions to examine the effects of warming and plant removal on soil microbial community structures during the growing season in a Sibiraea angustata scrubland of the eastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau. The results indicate that experimental warming significantly influenced soil microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and microbial biomass nitrogen (MBN), but the warming effects were dependent on the plant treatments and sampling seasons. In the plant-removal plots, warming did not affect most of the microbial variables, while in the undisturbed plots, warming significantly increased the abundances of actinomycete and Gram-positive bacterial groups during the mid-growing season (July), but it did not affect the fungi groups. Plant removal significantly reduced fungal abundance throughout the growing season and significantly altered the soil microbial community structure in July. The interaction between warming and plant removal significantly influenced the soil MBC and MBN and the abundances of total microbes, bacteria and actinomycete throughout the growing season. Experimental warming significantly reduced the abundance of rare taxa, while the interaction between warming and plant removal tended to have strong effects on the abundant taxa. These findings suggest that the responses of soil microbial communities to warming are regulated by plant communities. These results provide new insights into how soil microbial community structure responds to climatic warming in alpine scrub ecosystems. PMID:29668711

Will seasonally dry tropical forests be sensitive or resistant to future changes in rainfall regimes?

DOE PAGES

Allen, Kara; Dupuy, Juan Manuel; Gei, Maria G.; ...

2017-02-03

Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF) are located in regions with alternating wet and dry seasons, with dry seasons that last several months or more. By the end of the 21st century, climate models predict substantial changes in rainfall regimes across these regions, but little is known about how individuals, species, and communities in SDTF will cope with the hotter, drier conditions predicted by climate models. In this review, we explore different rainfall scenarios that may result in ecological drought in SDTF through the lens of two alternative hypotheses: 1) these forests will be sensitive to drought because they are alreadymore » limited by water and close to climatic thresholds, or 2) they will be resistant/resilient to intra- and inter-annual changes in rainfall because they are adapted to predictable, seasonal drought. In our review of literature that spans microbial to ecosystem processes, a majority of the available studies suggests that increasing frequency and intensity of droughts in SDTF will likely alter species distributions and ecosystem processes. Though we conclude that SDTF will be sensitive to altered rainfall regimes, many gaps in the literature remain. Future research should focus on geographically comparative studies and well-replicated drought experiments that can provide empirical evidence to improve simulation models used to forecast SDTF responses to future climate change at coarser spatial and temporal scales.« less

Will seasonally dry tropical forests be sensitive or resistant to future changes in rainfall regimes?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allen, Kara; Dupuy, Juan Manuel; Gei, Maria G.

Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF) are located in regions with alternating wet and dry seasons, with dry seasons that last several months or more. By the end of the 21st century, climate models predict substantial changes in rainfall regimes across these regions, but little is known about how individuals, species, and communities in SDTF will cope with the hotter, drier conditions predicted by climate models. In this review, we explore different rainfall scenarios that may result in ecological drought in SDTF through the lens of two alternative hypotheses: 1) these forests will be sensitive to drought because they are alreadymore » limited by water and close to climatic thresholds, or 2) they will be resistant/resilient to intra- and inter-annual changes in rainfall because they are adapted to predictable, seasonal drought. In our review of literature that spans microbial to ecosystem processes, a majority of the available studies suggests that increasing frequency and intensity of droughts in SDTF will likely alter species distributions and ecosystem processes. Though we conclude that SDTF will be sensitive to altered rainfall regimes, many gaps in the literature remain. Future research should focus on geographically comparative studies and well-replicated drought experiments that can provide empirical evidence to improve simulation models used to forecast SDTF responses to future climate change at coarser spatial and temporal scales.« less

Will seasonally dry tropical forests be sensitive or resistant to future changes in rainfall regimes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Kara; Dupuy, Juan Manuel; Gei, Maria G.; Hulshof, Catherine; Medvigy, David; Pizano, Camila; Salgado-Negret, Beatriz; Smith, Christina M.; Trierweiler, Annette; Van Bloem, Skip J.; Waring, Bonnie G.; Xu, Xiangtao; Powers, Jennifer S.

2017-02-01

Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF) are located in regions with alternating wet and dry seasons, with dry seasons that last several months or more. By the end of the 21st century, climate models predict substantial changes in rainfall regimes across these regions, but little is known about how individuals, species, and communities in SDTF will cope with the hotter, drier conditions predicted by climate models. In this review, we explore different rainfall scenarios that may result in ecological drought in SDTF through the lens of two alternative hypotheses: 1) these forests will be sensitive to drought because they are already limited by water and close to climatic thresholds, or 2) they will be resistant/resilient to intra- and inter-annual changes in rainfall because they are adapted to predictable, seasonal drought. In our review of literature that spans microbial to ecosystem processes, a majority of the available studies suggests that increasing frequency and intensity of droughts in SDTF will likely alter species distributions and ecosystem processes. Though we conclude that SDTF will be sensitive to altered rainfall regimes, many gaps in the literature remain. Future research should focus on geographically comparative studies and well-replicated drought experiments that can provide empirical evidence to improve simulation models used to forecast SDTF responses to future climate change at coarser spatial and temporal scales.

Future changes in rainfall associated with ENSO, IOD and changes in the mean state over Eastern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endris, Hussen Seid; Lennard, Christopher; Hewitson, Bruce; Dosio, Alessandro; Nikulin, Grigory; Artan, Guleid A.

2018-05-01

This study examines the projected changes in the characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in terms of mean state, intensity and frequency, and associated rainfall anomalies over eastern Africa. Two regional climate models driven by the same four global climate models (GCMs) and the corresponding GCM simulations are used to investigate projected changes in teleconnection patterns and East African rainfall. The period 1976-2005 is taken as the reference for present climate and the far-future climate (2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) is analyzed for projected change. Analyses of projections based on GCMs indicate an El Niño-like (positive IOD-like) warming pattern over the tropical Pacific (Indian) Ocean. However, large uncertainties remain in the projected future changes in ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity with some GCMs show increase of ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity, and others a decrease or no/small change. Projected changes in mean rainfall over eastern Africa based on the GCM and RCM data indicate a decrease in rainfall over most parts of the region during JJAS and MAM seasons, and an increase in rainfall over equatorial and southern part of the region during OND, with the greatest changes in equatorial region. During ENSO and IOD years, important changes in the strength of the teleconnections are found. During JJAS, when ENSO is an important driver of rainfall variability over the region, both GCM and RCM projections show an enhanced La Niña-related rainfall anomaly compared to the present period. Although the long rains (MAM) have little association with ENSO in the reference period, both GCMs and RCMs project stronger ENSO teleconnections in the future. On the other hand, during the short rains (OND), a dipole future change in rainfall teleconnection associated with ENSO and IOD is found, with a stronger ENSO/IOD related rainfall anomaly over the eastern part of the domain, but a weaker ENSO/IOD signal over the southern part of the region. This signal is consistent and robust in all global and regional model simulations. The projected increase in OND rainfall over the eastern horn of Africa might be linked with the mean changes in SST over Indian and Pacific Ocean basins and the associated Walker circulations.

Influence of the Northeast Cold Vortex on Flooding in Northeast China in Summer 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Jing; Gao, Hui

2018-04-01

Severe flooding occurred in Northeast China (NEC) in summer 2013. Compared with the rainfall climatology of the region, the rainy season began earlier in 2013 and two main rainy periods occurred from late June to early July and from mid July to early August, respectively. During the summer season of 2013, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) was located farther westward, which strengthened the southerly winds on its west side in the lower troposphere. Under this circulation pattern, more water vapor was transported to North China and NEC. Another moisture transport pathway to NEC was traced to the cross-equatorial flow over the Bay of Bengal. In mid-high latitudes in summer 2013, the Northeast Cold Vortex (NECV) was much stronger and remained stable over NEC. Thus, the cold air flow from its northwest side frequently met with the warm and wet air from the south to form stronger moisture convergence at lower levels in the troposphere, resulting in increased precipitation over the region. Correlation analysis indicated that the NECV played a more direct role than the WPSH. Synoptic analyses of the two heaviest flood cases on 2 and 16 July confirmed this conclusion. The four wettest summers in NEC before 2000 were also analyzed and the results were consistent with the conclusion that both the WPSH and the NECV led to the intense rainfall in NEC, but the NECV had a more direct role.

Patterns and perceptions of climate change in a biodiversity conservation hotspot.

PubMed

Hartter, Joel; Stampone, Mary D; Ryan, Sadie J; Kirner, Karen; Chapman, Colin A; Goldman, Abraham

2012-01-01

Quantifying local people's perceptions to climate change, and their assessments of which changes matter, is fundamental to addressing the dual challenge of land conservation and poverty alleviation in densely populated tropical regions To develop appropriate policies and responses, it will be important not only to anticipate the nature of expected changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local residents. The Albertine Rift region in East Africa is one of the world's most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense smallholder agriculture, high levels of land and resource pressures, and habitat loss and conversion. Results of three separate household surveys conducted in the vicinity of Kibale National Park during the late 2000s indicate that farmers are concerned with variable precipitation. Many survey respondents reported that conditions are drier and rainfall timing is becoming less predictable. Analysis of daily rainfall data for the climate normal period 1981 to 2010 indicates that total rainfall both within and across seasons has not changed significantly, although the timing and transitions of seasons has been highly variable. Results of rainfall data analysis also indicate significant changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall distribution, including longer dry periods within rainy seasons, which may contribute to the perceived decrease in rainfall and can compromise food security. Our results highlight the need for fine-scale climate information to assist agro-ecological communities in developing effective adaptive management.

Patterns and Perceptions of Climate Change in a Biodiversity Conservation Hotspot

PubMed Central

Hartter, Joel; Stampone, Mary D.; Ryan, Sadie J.; Kirner, Karen; Chapman, Colin A.; Goldman, Abraham

2012-01-01

Quantifying local people's perceptions to climate change, and their assessments of which changes matter, is fundamental to addressing the dual challenge of land conservation and poverty alleviation in densely populated tropical regions To develop appropriate policies and responses, it will be important not only to anticipate the nature of expected changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local residents. The Albertine Rift region in East Africa is one of the world's most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense smallholder agriculture, high levels of land and resource pressures, and habitat loss and conversion. Results of three separate household surveys conducted in the vicinity of Kibale National Park during the late 2000s indicate that farmers are concerned with variable precipitation. Many survey respondents reported that conditions are drier and rainfall timing is becoming less predictable. Analysis of daily rainfall data for the climate normal period 1981 to 2010 indicates that total rainfall both within and across seasons has not changed significantly, although the timing and transitions of seasons has been highly variable. Results of rainfall data analysis also indicate significant changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall distribution, including longer dry periods within rainy seasons, which may contribute to the perceived decrease in rainfall and can compromise food security. Our results highlight the need for fine-scale climate information to assist agro-ecological communities in developing effective adaptive management. PMID:22384244

The Angola Low: relationship with southern African rainfall and ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crétat, Julien; Pohl, Benjamin; Dieppois, Bastien; Berthou, Ségolène; Pergaud, Julien

2018-05-01

The main states of the Angola Low (AL) are identified using clustering analysis applied to daily anomalous patterns of 700-hPa wind vorticity over Angola and adjacent countries from November to March for the 1980/81-2014/15 period. At the daily timescale, we examine the extent to which the main states of the AL modulate daily rainfall over southern Africa. At the interannual timescale, we assess both the relationship between the occurrence of these AL states and El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) and the role of the AL in explaining ENSO's failure in driving southern African rainfall at times. Three reanalyses are considered to account for uncertainties induced by the scarcity of data available for assimilation over southern Africa. Three preferential states of the Angola Low are identified: AL state close to its seasonal climatology with slight zonal displacements, anomalously weak AL state and anomalously strong AL state with meridional displacements. These different states all significantly modulate daily southern African rainfall. Near-climatological AL state promotes wet rainfall anomalies over eastern subtropical southern Africa and dry rainfall anomalies over its western part. A slight westward shift in the near-climatological position of the AL leads to reversed zonal gradient in rainfall. The remaining regimes significantly modulate the meridional gradient in southern African rainfall. Anomalously weak and anomalously northward AL states promote wet rainfall anomalies over tropical southern Africa and dry rainfall anomalies over subtropical southern Africa. The reverse prevails for anomalously southward AL. At the interannual timescale, ENSO significantly modulates the seasonal occurrence of most AL states in the three reanalyses. Anomalously weak and southward AL states are more strongly correlated with regional rainfall than ENSO in all reanalyses, suggesting that accounting for AL variability may improve seasonal forecasts. Case study analysis of the major 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events suggests that the weak rainfall anomalies and strong seasonal AL in 1997/98 may result from counteracting effects between ENSO and Indian Ocean coupled modes of variability.

Dynamical Downscaling of Climate Change over the Hawaiian Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Zhang, C.; Hamilton, K. P.; Lauer, A.

2015-12-01

The pseudo-global-warming (PGW) method was applied to the Hawaii Regional Climate Model (HRCM) to dynamically downscale the projected climate in the late 21st century over the Hawaiian Islands. The initial and boundary conditions were adopted from MERRA reanalysis and NOAA SST data for the present-day simulations. The global warming increments constructed from the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble mean were added to the reanalysis and SST data to perform the future climate simulations. We found that the Hawaiian Islands are vulnerable to global warming effects and the changes are diverse due to the varied topography. The windward side will have more clouds and receive more rainfall. The increase of the moisture in the boundary layer makes the major contribution. On the contrary, the leeward side will have less clouds and rainfall. The clouds and rain can slightly slow down the warming trend over the windward side. The temperature increases almost linearly with the terrain height. Cloud base and top heights will slightly decline in response to the slightly lower trade wind inversion base height, while the trade wind occurrence frequency will increase by about 8% in the future. More extreme rainfall events will occur in the warming climate over the Hawaiian Islands. And the snow cover on the top of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa will nearly disappear in the future winter.

The role of mountain precipitation as a drought buffer in Puerto Rico: Assessing natural systems' resilience to change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scholl, M. A.; Clark, K. E.; Van Beusekom, A.; Shanley, J. B.; Torres-Sanchez, A.; Murphy, S. F.; Gonzalez, G.

2017-12-01

Like many island and coastal areas, the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico receive orographic precipitation (rain and cloud water), maintaining headwater streamflow and allowing diverse forest ecosystems to thrive. Although rainfall from regional-scale convective systems is greater in volume, multiple lines of evidence (stable isotope tracers; precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity; cloud immersion; regional cloud dynamics; weather analysis) show that trade-wind orographic precipitation contributes significantly to streamflow, soil water, and shallow groundwater. Ceilometer data and time-lapse photography of cloud-immersed conditions at the mountain indicated a seasonally invariant, sustained overnight regime of cloud water precipitation, in addition to the abundant rainfall in the mountains. Rising ocean temperatures and a warming tropical climate lead to questions about persistence of the trade-wind associated orographic precipitation and the resilience of similar mountain ecosystems to change. Projections for Caribbean climate change include amplification of trade winds; less frequent, more intense large convective systems; and a warming ocean. These may have opposing effects on mountain precipitation, increasing uncertainty about processes that mitigate drought. Field studies provide insights regarding these questions. Ceilometer and satellite observations showed cloud base is higher over the mountains than in the surrounding Caribbean region; with the trade-wind inversion cap, further rise in cloud base may produce shallower clouds and reduced precipitation. We analyzed the February-October 2015 drought, characterized by strong El Niño conditions, an absence of tropical storm systems, and reduced convection in easterly waves. Combined δ2H, δ18O and d-excess signatures of streamflow indicated precipitation was derived from shallow convective systems, trade-wind showers and cloud water. During severe drought on the island, streamflow-sustaining rainfall at the mountain station at 640 m persisted, albeit with 19% lower frequency and 52% fewer large (>10 mm) rain events than the 20-year average. Clearly, resilience of the mountain forest ecosystem and of streamflow to drought periods depends on orographic precipitation.

Rainfall and labile carbon availability control litter nitrogen dynamics in a tropical dry forest.

PubMed

Anaya, Carlos A; García-Oliva, Felipe; Jaramillo, Víctor J

2007-01-01

N cycling in tropical dry forests is driven by rainfall seasonality but the mechanisms involved are not well understood. We studied the seasonal variation in N dynamics and microbial biomass in the surface litter of a tropical dry forest ecosystem in Mexico over a 2-year period. Litter was collected at 4 different times of the year to determine changes in total, soluble, and microbial C and N concentrations. Additionally, litter from each sampling date was incubated under laboratory conditions to determine potential C mineralization rate, net N mineralization, net C and N microbial immobilization, and net nitrification. Litter C concentrations were highest in the early-dry season and lowest in the rainy season, while the seasonal changes in N concentrations varied between years. Litter P was higher in the rainy than in the early-dry season. Water-soluble organic C (WSOC) and water-soluble N concentrations were highest during the early- and late-dry seasons and represented up to 4.1 and 5.9% of the total C and N, respectively. NH (4) (+) and NO (3) (-) showed different seasonal and annual variations. They represented an average 23% of soluble N. Microbial C was generally higher in the dry than in the wet seasons, while microbial N was lowest in the late-dry and highest in the early-rainy seasons. Incubations showed that lowest potential C mineralization rates and C and N microbial immobilization occurred in rainy season litter, and were positively correlated to WSOC. Net nitrification was highest in rainy season litter. Our results showed that the seasonal pattern in N dynamics was influenced by rainfall seasonality and labile C availability, and not by microbial biomass. We propose a conceptual model to hypothesize how N dynamics in the litter layer of the Chamela tropical dry forest respond to the seasonal variation in rainfall.

Evaluation of empirical relationships between extreme rainfall and daily maximum temperature in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herath, Sujeewa Malwila; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Nguyen, Van Thanh Van

2018-01-01

Understanding the relationships between extreme daily and sub-daily rainfall events and their governing factors is important in order to analyse the properties of extreme rainfall events in a changing climate. Atmospheric temperature is one of the dominant climate variables which has a strong relationship with extreme rainfall events. In this study, a temperature-rainfall binning technique is used to evaluate the dependency of extreme rainfall on daily maximum temperature. The Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation was found to describe the relationship between daily maximum temperature and a range of rainfall durations from 6 min up to 24 h for seven Australian weather stations, the stations being located in Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney. The analysis shows that the rainfall - temperature scaling varies with location, temperature and rainfall duration. The Darwin Airport station shows a negative scaling relationship, while the other six stations show a positive relationship. To identify the trend in scaling relationship over time the same analysis is conducted using data covering 10 year periods. Results indicate that the dependency of extreme rainfall on temperature also varies with the analysis period. Further, this dependency shows an increasing trend for more extreme short duration rainfall and a decreasing trend for average long duration rainfall events at most stations. Seasonal variations of the scale changing trends were analysed by categorizing the summer and autumn seasons in one group and the winter and spring seasons in another group. Most of 99th percentile of 6 min, 1 h and 24 h rain durations at Perth, Melbourne and Sydney stations show increasing trend for both groups while Adelaide and Darwin show decreasing trend. Furthermore, majority of scaling trend of 50th percentile are decreasing for both groups.

Warming and elevated CO2 lead to longer growing season in temperate grassland

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Observational data over time suggest that as climate has warmed the growing season has lengthened, although experimental warming shortens early-growing species’ life cycles. Are other plant species living longer? We found that experimental warming in a temperate, semi-arid grassland led to earlier l...

Temporal and spatial changes of rainfall and streamflow in the Upper Tekezē-Atbara river basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebremicael, Tesfay G.; Mohamed, Yasir A.; Zaag, Pieter v.; Hagos, Eyasu Y.

2017-04-01

The Upper Tekezē-Atbara river sub-basin, part of the Nile Basin, is characterized by high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall and streamflow. In spite of its importance for sustainable water use and food security, the changing patterns of streamflow and its association with climate change is not well understood. This study aims to improve the understanding of the linkages between rainfall and streamflow trends and identify possible drivers of streamflow variabilities in the basin. Trend analyses and change-point detections of rainfall and streamflow were analysed using Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests, respectively, using data records for 21 rainfall and 9 streamflow stations. The nature of changes and linkages between rainfall and streamflow were carefully examined for monthly, seasonal and annual flows, as well as indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA). The trend and change-point analyses found that 19 of the tested 21 rainfall stations did not show statistically significant changes. In contrast, trend analyses on the streamflow showed both significant increasing and decreasing patterns. A decreasing trend in the dry season (October to February), short season (March to May), main rainy season (June to September) and annual totals is dominant in six out of the nine stations. Only one out of nine gauging stations experienced significant increasing flow in the dry and short rainy seasons, attributed to the construction of Tekezē hydropower dam upstream this station in 2009. Overall, streamflow trends and change-point timings were found to be inconsistent among the stations. Changes in streamflow without significant change in rainfall suggests factors other than rainfall drive the change. Most likely the observed changes in streamflow regimes could be due to changes in catchment characteristics of the basin. Further studies are needed to verify and quantify the hydrological changes shown in statistical tests by identifying the physical mechanisms behind those changes. The findings from this study are useful as a prerequisite for studying the effects of catchment management dynamics on the hydrological variabilities in the basin.

Describing rainfall in northern Australia using multiple climate indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilks Rogers, Cassandra Denise; Beringer, Jason

2017-02-01

Savanna landscapes are globally extensive and highly sensitive to climate change, yet the physical processes and climate phenomena which affect them remain poorly understood and therefore poorly represented in climate models. Both human populations and natural ecosystems are highly susceptible to precipitation variation in these regions due to the effects on water and food availability and atmosphere-biosphere energy fluxes. Here we quantify the relationship between climate phenomena and historical rainfall variability in Australian savannas and, in particular, how these relationships changed across a strong rainfall gradient, namely the North Australian Tropical Transect (NATT). Climate phenomena were described by 16 relevant climate indices and correlated against precipitation from 1900 to 2010 to determine the relative importance of each climate index on seasonal, annual and decadal timescales. Precipitation trends, climate index trends and wet season characteristics have also been investigated using linear statistical methods. In general, climate index-rainfall correlations were stronger in the north of the NATT where annual rainfall variability was lower and a high proportion of rainfall fell during the wet season. This is consistent with a decreased influence of the Indian-Australian monsoon from the north to the south. Seasonal variation was most strongly correlated with the Australian Monsoon Index, whereas yearly variability was related to a greater number of climate indices, predominately the Tasman Sea and Indonesian sea surface temperature indices (both of which experienced a linear increase over the duration of the study) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices. These findings highlight the importance of understanding the climatic processes driving variability and, subsequently, the importance of understanding the relationships between rainfall and climatic phenomena in the Northern Territory in order to project future rainfall patterns in the region.

Impact of Climatic Variability on Hydropower Reservoirs in the Paraiba Basin, Southeast of Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barros, A.; simoes, s

2002-05-01

During 2000/2001, a severe drought greatly reduced the volume of water available to Brazilian hydropower plants and lead to a national water rationing plan. To undestand the potential for climatic change in hydrological regimes and its impact on hydropower we chose the Paraiba Basin located in Southeast Brazil. Three important regional multi-purpose reservoirs are operating in this basin. Moreover, the Paraiba River is of great economic and environmental importance and also constitutes a major corridor connecting the two cities of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. We analyzed monthly and daily records for rainfall, streamflow and temperature using regression and variance analysis. Rainfall records do not show any significant trend since the 1930s/1940s. By contrast, analysis of seasonal patterns show that in the last twenty years rainfall has increased during autumn and winter (dry season) and decreased during spring and summer (rainy season). Comparison between rainfall and streaflow, from small catchment without man-made influences, shows a more pronounced deficit in streamflow when compared with rainfall. The shifts in seasonal rainfall could indicate a tendency towards a more uniform rainfall pattern and could serve to reduce the streamflow. However, the largest upward trends in temperature were found in the driest months (JJA). The increase in rainfall would not be sufficient to overcome increased of evaporation expect to the same period. Instead, such increase in evaporation could create an over more pronounced streamflow deficit. Climatic variability could be reducing water availability in these reservoirs especially in the driest months. To reduce the uncertainties in hydrological predictions, planners need to incorporate climatic variability, at the catchment scale, in order to accomodate the new conditions resulting from these changes.

Hydrologic monitoring of a landslide-prone hillslope in the Elliott State Forest, Southern Coast Range, Oregon, 2009-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Joel B.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Baum, Rex L.; Coe, Jeffrey A.; Burns, William J.; Morse, Michael M.; Sener-Kaya, Basak; Kaya, Murat

2014-01-01

The Oregon Coast Range is dissected by numerous unchanneled headwater basins, which can generate shallow landslides and debris flows during heavy or prolonged rainfall. An automated monitoring system was installed in an unchanneled headwater basin to measure rainfall, volumetric water content, groundwater temperature, and pore pressures at 15-minute intervals. The purpose of this report is to describe and present the methods used for the monitoring as well as the preliminary data collected during the period from 2009 to 2012. Observations show a pronounced seasonal variation in volumetric water content and pore pressures. Increases in pore pressures and volumetric water content from dry-season values begin with the onset of the rainy season in the fall (typically early to mid October). High water contents and pore pressures tend to persist throughout the rainy season, which typically ends in May. Heavy or prolonged rainfall during the wet season that falls on already moist soils often generates positive pore pressures that are observed in the deeper instruments. These data provide a record of the basin’s hydrologic response to rainfall and provide a foundation for understanding the conditions that lead to landslide and debris-flow occurrence.

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring (TRMM) - What Have We Learned and What Does the Future Hold?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kummerow, C.; Hong, Y.; Olsen, W. S.

2000-01-01

Rainfall is important in the hydrological cycle and to the lives and welfare of humans. In addition to being a life-giving resource, rainfall processes also plays a crucial role in the dynamics of the global atmospheric circulation. Three-fourths of the energy that drives the atmospheric wind circulation comes from the latent heat released by tropical precipitation. It varies greatly in space and time. The rain-producing cloud systems may last several hours or days. Their dimensions range from 10 km to several hundred km. This makes it difficult to incorporate rainfall directly large-scale weather and climate models. Until the end of 1997, precipitation in the global tropics was not known to within a factor of two. Regarding "global warming", the various large-scale models differed among themselves in the predicted magnitude of the warming and in the expected regional effects of these temperature and moisture changes. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite has yielded important interim results related to rainfall observations, data assimilation and model forecast skills when rainfall data is assimilated. This talk will summarize where the TRMM science team is with regards to answering some of these important scientific challenges, as well as discuss the future Global Precipitation Mission which will provide 3 hourly rainfall coverage and offers some unique collaborative potential for NOAA and NASA.

Mechanism of ENSO influence on the South Asian monsoon rainfall in global model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Sneh; Kar, Sarat C.

2018-02-01

Coupled ocean atmosphere global climate models are increasingly being used for seasonal scale simulation of the South Asian monsoon. In these models, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evolve as coupled air-sea interaction process. However, sensitivity experiments with various SST forcing can only be done in an atmosphere-only model. In this study, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution has been used to examine the mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing on the monsoon circulation and rainfall. The model has been integrated (ensemble) with observed, climatological and ENSO SST forcing to document the mechanism on how the South Asian monsoon responds to basin-wide SST variations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The model simulations indicate that the internal variability gets modulated by the SSTs with warming in the Pacific enhancing the ensemble spread over the monsoon region as compared to cooling conditions. Anomalous easterly wind anomalies cover the Indian region both at 850 and 200 hPa levels during El Niño years. The locations and intensity of Walker and Hadley circulations are altered due to ENSO SST forcing. These lead to reduction of monsoon rainfall over most parts of India during El Niño events compared to La Niña conditions. However, internally generated variability is a major source of uncertainty in the model-simulated climate.

How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

PubMed

Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

2017-03-11

Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.

Ammonia-oxidizing archaea are more resistant than denitrifiers to seasonal precipitation changes in an acidic subtropical forest soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jie

2017-04-01

More frequent droughts and storms will occur globally in the prediction of global climate change model, which will influence soil microorganisms and nutrient cycles. Understanding the resistance of soil functional microorganisms and the associated biogeochemical cycles to such climate changes is important in evaluating responses of ecosystem functioning. In order to clarify the responses of soil functional microorganisms involved in nitrogen (N) cycle to the predicted precipitation scenarios, two contrasting precipitation manipulation experiments were conducted in an acidic subtropical forest soil. One experiment manipulated drier dry-season and wetter wet-season (DD) by reducing dry-season rainfall and adding the equivalently reduced rainfall to wet-season. Another experiment manipulated extending dry-season and wetter wet-season (ED) by reducing spring-season rainfall and adding the equivalent rainfall in the late wet-season. The resistance index of ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) amoA and denitrifying (nirK, nirS and nosZ) genes abundance, soil net N mineralization and nitrification rates were calculated during experiments to examine their responses to precipitation changes. As the results, the resistance index of functional microbial abundance (-0.03 ± 0.08) was much lower than that of net N transformation rates (0.55 ± 0.02), indicating more sensitive of functional microorganisms in response to precipitation changes than the related N processes. Extending dry-season showed greater effects on both AOA amoA and denitrifying genes abundance than drier dry-season, with significant increases of these microbial abundance after extending dry-season. This was mainly due to the interaction effects of soil water content (SWC), dissolve organic carbon (DOC) and NH4+ concentration during rainfall reduction in spring-season. Interestingly, the resistance index of AOA amoA abundance was significantly higher than that of denitrifying gene abundance, indicating more resistant of AOA to precipitation changes. This was mainly because AOA have higher resource utilization efficiency and can acclimate to environmental changes more rapidly than denitrifiers, as indicated by less effects of N, C substrates and SWC on the resistance index of AOA abundance. This study demonstrated substantial disturbance of drier spring-season to soil nitrifying and denitrifying microorganisms, and greater stability of AOA community abundance in resistant to such disturbance.

Changing frequency of flooding in Bangladesh: Is the wettest place on Earth getting wetter?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haustein, K.; Uhe, P.; Rimi, R.; Islam, A. S.; Otto, F. E. L.

2017-12-01

Human influence on the Asian monsoon is exerted by two counteracting forces, (1) anthropogenic warming due to the influence of increasing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and (2) radiative cooling due to increased amounts of anthropogenic aerosols. GHG emissions tend to intensify the water cycle and increase monsoon precipitation, whereas aerosols are considered to have the opposite effect. On larger scales, aerosols may be responsible for meridional circulation anomalies as well as direct cooling effects, with an associated tendency for drier monsoon seasons that compensate a change towards wetter conditions in a purely GHG-driven scenario. On regional scales, aerosols weaken the thermal contrast between land and ocean which acts to inhibit the monsoon too. As a result, neither observations nor model simulations that consider all human influences suggest clear changes in extreme precipitation at present. In actual reality we are essentially committed to more rainfall extremes already as aerosol pollution will eventually be reduced regardless of future GHG emissions. Thus we argue that it is crucial to assess the risk related to removing anthropogenic aerosols from the current world as opposed to standard experiments that use projected climate scenarios. We present results from on analysis of extreme precipitation that led to the Bangladesh floods in summer 2016. Since the Meghalaya Hills are the major contributor to flood waters in Bangladesh, we focus on this region, despite slightly higher rainfall anomalies further west. More specifically, we primarily analyze the grid point representing Cherrapunji, also known to be the wettest place on Earth (situated on the southern flank of Meghalaya Hills). We use the weather@home HadAM3P model at 50km spatial resolution. Our model results generally support the notion that rainfall extremes in Cherrapunji might have become more likely already. Mean rainfall is slightly lowered, but 21-day maximum rainfall under current "allforcing" conditions has occurred more often compared to the counterfactual world. While the 2016 rainfall event was not extreme, our results indicate that such flood-inducing rainfall will likely become more frequent without aerosols. In other words, mean rainfall trends could reverse, with considerably increased risks for more future flooding.

Use of microwave satellite data to study variations in rainfall over the Indian Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinton, Barry B.; Martin, David W.; Auvine, Brian; Olson, William S.

1990-01-01

The University of Wisconsin Space Science and Engineering Center mapped rainfall over the Indian Ocean using a newly developed Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) rain-retrieval algorithm. The short-range objective was to characterize the distribution and variability of Indian Ocean rainfall on seasonal and annual scales. In the long-range, the objective is to clarify differences between land and marine regimes of monsoon rain. Researchers developed a semi-empirical algorithm for retrieving Indian Ocean rainfall. Tools for this development have come from radiative transfer and cloud liquid water models. Where possible, ground truth information from available radars was used in development and testing. SMMR rainfalls were also compared with Indian Ocean gauge rainfalls. Final Indian Ocean maps were produced for months, seasons, and years and interpreted in terms of historical analysis over the sub-continent.

Indian Monsoon Depression: Climatology and Variability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoon, Jin-Ho; Huang, Wan-Ru

The monsoon climate is traditionally characterized by large seasonal rainfall and reversal of wind direction (e.g., Krishnamurti 1979). Most importantly this rainfall is the major source of fresh water to various human activities such as agriculture. The Indian subcontinent resides at the core of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon system, with the monsoon trough extended from northern India across Indochina to the Western Tropical Pacific (WTP). Large fraction of annual rainfall occurs during the summer monsoon season, i.e., June - August with two distinct maxima. One is located over the Bay of Bengal with rainfall extending northwestward into eastern andmore » central India, and the other along the west coast of India where the lower level moist wind meets the Western Ghat Mountains (Saha and Bavardeckar 1976). The rest of the Indian subcontinent receives relatively less rainfall. Various weather systems such as tropical cyclones and weak disturbances contribute to monsoon rainfall (Ramage 1971). Among these systems, the most efficient rain-producing system is known as the Indian monsoon depression (hereafter MD). This MD is critical for monsoon rainfall because: (i) it occurs about six times during each summer monsoon season, (ii) it propagates deeply into the continent and produces large amounts of rainfall along its track, and (iii) about half of the monsoon rainfall is contributed to by the MDs (e.g., Krishnamurti 1979). Therefore, understanding various properties of the MD is a key towards comprehending the veracity of the Indian summer monsoon and especially its hydrological process.« less

A study of 2014 record drought in India with CFSv2 model: role of water vapor transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Brahmananda Rao, V.; Srinivasa Rao, B. R.; Hari Prasad, D.; Nanaji Rao, N.; Panda, Roshmitha

2017-07-01

The Indian summer monsoon season of 2014 was erratic and ended up with a seasonal rainfall deficit of 12 % and a record drought in June. In this study we analyze the moisture transport characteristics for the monsoon season of 2014 using both NCEP FNL reanalysis (FNL) and CFSv2 (CFS) model data. In FNL, in June 2014 there was a large area of divergence of moisture flux. In other months also there was lesser flux. This probably is the cause of 2014 drought. The CFS model overestimated the drought and it reproduces poorly the observed rainfall over central India (65E-95E; 5N-35N). The correlation coefficient (CC) between the IMD observed rainfall and CFS model rainfall is only 0.1 while the CC between rainfall and moisture flux convergence in CFS model is only 0.20 and with FNL data -0.78. This clearly shows that the CFS model has serious difficulty in reproducing the moisture flux convergence and rainfall. We found that the rainfall variations are strongly related to the moisture convergence or divergence. The hypothesis of Krishnamurti et al. (J Atmos Sci 67:3423-3441, 2010) namely the intrusion of west African desert air and the associated low convective available potential energy inhibiting convection and rainfall shows some promise to explain dry spells in Indian summer monsoon. However, the rainfall or lack of it is mainly explained by convergence or divergence of moisture flux.

The Tropical Convective Spectrum. Part 1; Archetypal Vertical Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boccippio, Dennis J.; Petersen, Walter A.; Cecil, Daniel J.

2005-01-01

A taxonomy of tropical convective and stratiform vertical structures is constructed through cluster analysis of 3 yr of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) "warm-season" (surface temperature greater than 10 C) precipitation radar (PR) vertical profiles, their surface rainfall, and associated radar-based classifiers (convective/ stratiform and brightband existence). Twenty-five archetypal profile types are identified, including nine convective types, eight stratiform types, two mixed types, and six anvil/fragment types (nonprecipitating anvils and sheared deep convective profiles). These profile types are then hierarchically clustered into 10 similar families, which can be further combined, providing an objective and physical reduction of the highly multivariate PR data space that retains vertical structure information. The taxonomy allows for description of any storm or local convective spectrum by the profile types or families. The analysis provides a quasi-independent corroboration of the TRMM 2A23 convective/ stratiform classification. The global frequency of occurrence and contribution to rainfall for the profile types are presented, demonstrating primary rainfall contribution by midlevel glaciated convection (27%) and similar depth decaying/stratiform stages (28%-31%). Profiles of these types exhibit similar 37- and 85-GHz passive microwave brightness temperatures but differ greatly in their frequency of occurrence and mean rain rates, underscoring the importance to passive microwave rain retrieval of convective/stratiform discrimination by other means, such as polarization or texture techniques, or incorporation of lightning observations. Close correspondence is found between deep convective profile frequency and annualized lightning production, and pixel-level lightning occurrence likelihood directly tracks the estimated mean ice water path within profile types.

Comparison of Ground- and Space-based Radar Observations with Disdrometer Measurements During the PECAN Field Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres, A. D.; Rasmussen, K. L.; Bodine, D. J.; Dougherty, E.

2015-12-01

Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) was a large field campaign that studied nocturnal mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), convective initiation, bores, and low-level jets across the central plains in the United States. MCSs are responsible for over half of the warm-season precipitation across the central U.S. plains. The rainfall from deep convection of these systems over land have been observed to be underestimated by satellite radar rainfall-retrieval algorithms by as much as 40 percent. These algorithms have a strong dependence on the generally unmeasured rain drop-size distribution (DSD). During the campaign, our group measured rainfall DSDs, precipitation fall velocities, and total precipitation in the convective and stratiform regions of MCSs using Ott Parsivel optical laser disdrometers. The disdrometers were co-located with mobile pod units that measured temperature, wind, and relative humidity for quality control purposes. Data from the operational NEXRAD radar in LaCrosse, Wisconsin and space-based radar measurements from a Global Precipitation Measurement satellite overpass on July 13, 2015 were used for the analysis. The focus of this study is to compare DSD measurements from the disdrometers to radars in an effort to reduce errors in existing rainfall-retrieval algorithms. The error analysis consists of substituting measured DSDs into existing quantitative precipitation estimation techniques (e.g. Z-R relationships and dual-polarization rain estimates) and comparing these estimates to ground measurements of total precipitation. The results from this study will improve climatological estimates of total precipitation in continental convection that are used in hydrological studies, climate models, and other applications.

Elevated CO2 further lengthens growing season under warming conditions.

PubMed

Reyes-Fox, Melissa; Steltzer, Heidi; Trlica, M J; McMaster, Gregory S; Andales, Allan A; LeCain, Dan R; Morgan, Jack A

2014-06-12

Observations of a longer growing season through earlier plant growth in temperate to polar regions have been thought to be a response to climate warming. However, data from experimental warming studies indicate that many species that initiate leaf growth and flowering earlier also reach seed maturation and senesce earlier, shortening their active and reproductive periods. A conceptual model to explain this apparent contradiction, and an analysis of the effect of elevated CO2--which can delay annual life cycle events--on changing season length, have not been tested. Here we show that experimental warming in a temperate grassland led to a longer growing season through earlier leaf emergence by the first species to leaf, often a grass, and constant or delayed senescence by other species that were the last to senesce, supporting the conceptual model. Elevated CO2 further extended growing, but not reproductive, season length in the warmed grassland by conserving water, which enabled most species to remain active longer. Our results suggest that a longer growing season, especially in years or biomes where water is a limiting factor, is not due to warming alone, but also to higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations that extend the active period of plant annual life cycles.

Indian Monsoon Rainfall Variability During the Common Era: Implications on the Ancient Civilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pothuri, D.

2017-12-01

Indian monsoon rainfall variability was reconstructed during last two millennia by using the δ18Ow from a sediment core in the Krishna-Godavari Basin. Higher δ18Ow values during Dark Age Cold Period (DACP) (1550 to 1250 years BP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) (700 to 200 years BP) represent less Indian monsoon rainfall. Whereas during Medieval Warm Period (MWP) (1200 to 800 years BP) and major portion of Roman Warm Period (RWP) 2000 to 1550 years BP) document more rainfall in the Indian subcontinent as evident from lower δ18Ow values. A significant correlation exist between the Bay of Bengal (BoB) sea surface temperature (SST) and Indian monsoon proxy (i.e. δ18Ow), which suggests that; (i) the forcing mechanism of the Indian monsoon rainfall variability during last two millennia was controlled by the thermal contrast between the Indian Ocean and Asian Land Mass, and (ii) the evaporation processes in the BoB and associated SST are strongly coupled with the Indian Monsoon variability over the last two millennia.

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Requirements of Dry Season Boro Rice: Recent Trends and Future Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharjee, T. K.; Ludwig, F.; Halsema, G. V.; Hellegers, P.; Supit, I.

2017-12-01

The North-West part of Bangladesh is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, because of dry season water shortage and high water demand for rice cultivation. A study was carried out to understand the impacts of recent climate change (1980-2013) and future consequences (for 2050s and 2080s) on water requirements of Boro rice. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo), potential crop water requirement (∑ETC), effective rainfall (ER), potential irrigation requirement for crop evapotranspiration (∑ETC-ER) and net irrigation requirement of Boro rice were estimated in CropWat using observed daily climate data for recent trends and statistically downscaled and bias corrected GCM outputs (five models and two RCPs) for future scenarios. ETo showed a significant decreasing recent trends due to increasing relative humidity and decreasing wind speed and sun shine hours instead of an increase in temperature. However, the strong future increase in temperature will lead to an insignificant increase in ETo. ∑ETC showed a decreasing recent trend and will further decrease in the future because of shortened duration of Boro growth stages as crop's phenological response to increased temperature. The variations in trends of ∑ETC-ER found among different districts, are mainly linked to the variations in trends of changes in effective rainfall. During last three decades, the net irrigation requirement has decreased by 11% at an average rate of -4.4 mm/year, instead of a decreasing effective rainfall, mainly because of high rate of decrease of crop evapotranspiration (-5.9 mm/year). In future, although daily water requirement will increase, the total net irrigation requirement of Boro rice will decrease by 1.6% in 2050s and 7.4% in 2080s for RCP 8.5 scenario on an average for five models and four districts compared to the base period (1980-2013). High variations in projected changes in rainfall bring high uncertainty for future water requirements estimation. Therefore, a warming climate will not directly increase the water demand for crop agriculture in North-West Bangladesh but will make the future agricultural water management more complex by bringing more variations and uncertainty in the system.

The covariability of North American land-atmosphere coupling strength and rainfall characteristics in reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferguson, C. R.; Roundy, J. K.; Kim, W.

2016-12-01

The GEWEX North American Regional Hydroclimate Project (RHP): Water for the Food Baskets of the World initiative is aimed at: improving understanding of key processes—both natural and anthropogenic—that determine water availability, improving understanding of the independent and collective sensitivity of these processes to local and global change, and the integration of knowledge gained into the next model development cycle for the benefit of improved water availability forecasts. Considering that the agricultural sector accounts for three quarters of water withdrawals and suffers the brunt of drought-related financial damages, a rational RHP focal point is subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast skill. Forecasts on this timescale over the Great Plains food basket have shown particular sensitivity to land initial conditions (i.e., soil moisture, snow cover, and vegetative stress) and the realism of modeled land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling. L-A coupling strength denotes the degree to which the model's land scheme (i.e., soil column memory and surface flux partitioning) affect the atmospheric forecast scheme's daytime evolution of the convective boundary layer, including cloud development and precipitation. Prior studies have connected L-A coupling strength to the phase and amplitude of the diurnal precipitation cycle, as well as the evolution of heatwaves and drought. In this study, we apply three metrics of L-A coupling strength: soil moisture memory, the two-legged coupling metric, and the convective triggering potential-humidity index, to the 161-year NOAA-Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CRV2c). Over the full period, we also analyze warm-season rainfall characteristics and subsequently perform statistical trend and change point analyses on both sets of results. We test the stationarity of both coupling and rainfall characteristics as well as the hypothesis that any detected shifts in coupling strength and afternoon rainfall frequency will coincide. Although the source data has inherent limitations that will be quantified and discussed, the results will be the first of their kind over such a long period of record and will provide key insights for the North American RHP.

Mechanisms for Diurnal Variability of Global Tropical Rainfall Observed from TRMM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Song; Smith, Eric A.

2004-01-01

The behavior and various controls of diurnal variability in tropical-subtropical rainfall are investigated using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation measurements retrieved from: (1) TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), (2) Precipitation Radar (PR), and (3) TMI/PR Combined, standard level 2 algorithms for the 1998 annual cycle. Results show that the diurnal variability characteristics of precipitation are consistent for all three algorithms, providing assurance that TRMM retrievals are providing consistent estimates of rainfall variability. As anticipated, most ocean areas exhibit more rainfall at night, while over most land areas rainfall peaks during daytime ,however, various important exceptions are found. The dominant feature of the oceanic diurnal cycle is a rainfall maximum in late-evening/early-morning (LE-EM) hours, while over land the dominant maximum occurs in the mid- to late-afternoon (MLA). In conjunction with these maxima are pronounced seasonal variations of the diurnal amplitudes. Amplitude analysis shows that the diurnal pattern and its seasonal evolution are closely related to the rainfall accumulation pattern and its seasonal evolution. In addition, the horizontal distribution of diurnal variability indicates that for oceanic rainfall there is a secondary MLA maximum, co-existing with the LE-EM maximum, at latitudes dominated by large scale convergence and deep convection. Analogously, there is a preponderance for an LE-EM maximum over land, co-existing with the stronger MLA maximum, although it is not evident that this secondary continental feature is closely associated with the large scale circulation. The ocean results clearly indicate that rainfall diurnal variability associated with large scale convection is an integral part of the atmospheric general circulation.

Diagnostics of Rainfall Anomalies in the Nordeste During the Global Weather Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sikdar, D. M.

1984-01-01

The relationship of the daily variability of large-scale pressure, cloudiness and upper level wind patterns over the Brazil-Atlantic sector during March/April 1979 to rainfall anomalies in northern Nordeste was investigated. The experiment divides the rainy season (March/April) of 1979 into wet and dry days, then composites bright cloudiness, sea level pressure, and upper level wind fields with respect to persistent rainfall episodes. Wet and dry anomalies are analyzed along with seasonal mean conditions.

An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grover-Kopec, Emily; Kawano, Mika; Klaver, Robert W.; Blumenthal, Benno; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J.

2005-01-01

Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response.Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization.The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to previous seasons and climatological averages. These resources are available at no cost to the user and are updated on a routine basis.

Contrasting above- and belowground sensitivity of three Great Plains grasslands to altered rainfall regimes.

PubMed

Wilcox, Kevin R; von Fischer, Joseph C; Muscha, Jennifer M; Petersen, Mark K; Knapp, Alan K

2015-01-01

Intensification of the global hydrological cycle with atmospheric warming is expected to increase interannual variation in precipitation amount and the frequency of extreme precipitation events. Although studies in grasslands have shown sensitivity of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) to both precipitation amount and event size, we lack equivalent knowledge for responses of belowground net primary productivity (BNPP) and NPP. We conducted a 2-year experiment in three US Great Plains grasslands--the C4-dominated shortgrass prairie (SGP; low ANPP) and tallgrass prairie (TGP; high ANPP), and the C3-dominated northern mixed grass prairie (NMP; intermediate ANPP)--to test three predictions: (i) both ANPP and BNPP responses to increased precipitation amount would vary inversely with mean annual precipitation (MAP) and site productivity; (ii) increased numbers of extreme rainfall events during high-rainfall years would affect high and low MAP sites differently; and (iii) responses belowground would mirror those aboveground. We increased growing season precipitation by as much as 50% by augmenting natural rainfall via (i) many (11-13) small or (ii) fewer (3-5) large watering events, with the latter coinciding with naturally occurring large storms. Both ANPP and BNPP increased with water addition in the two C4 grasslands, with greater ANPP sensitivity in TGP, but greater BNPP and NPP sensitivity in SGP. ANPP and BNPP did not respond to any rainfall manipulations in the C3 -dominated NMP. Consistent with previous studies, fewer larger (extreme) rainfall events increased ANPP relative to many small events in SGP, but event size had no effect in TGP. Neither system responded consistently above- and belowground to event size; consequently, total NPP was insensitive to event size. The diversity of responses observed in these three grassland types underscores the challenge of predicting responses relevant to C cycling to forecast changes in precipitation regimes even within relatively homogeneous biomes such as grasslands. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Analysis of global oceanic rainfall from microwave data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rao, M.

1978-01-01

A Global Rainfall Atlas was prepared from Nimbus 5 ESMR data. The Atlas includes global oceanic rainfall maps based on weekly, monthly and seasonal averages, complete through the end of 1975. Similar maps for 1973 and 1974 were studied. They reveal several previously unknown areas of enhanced rainfall and preliminary data on interannual variability of oceanic rainfall.

NOAA AVHRR and its uses for rainfall and evapotranspiration monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerr, Yann H.; Imbernon, J.; Dedieu, G.; Hautecoeur, O.; Lagouarde, J. P.

1989-01-01

NOAA-7 Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Vegetation Indices (GVI) were used during the 1986 rainy season (June-September) over Senegal to monitor rainfall. The satellite data were used in conjunction with ground-based measurements so as to derive empirical relationships between rainfall and GVI. The regression obtained was then used to map the total rainfall corresponding to the growing season, yielding good results. Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices (NDVI) derived from High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRPT) data were also compared with actual evapotranspiration (ET) data and proved to be closely correlated with it with a time lapse of 20 days.

Rainfall trends in the Brazilian Amazon Basin in the past eight decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satyamurty, Prakki; de Castro, Aline Anderson; Tota, Julio; da Silva Gularte, Lucia Eliane; Manzi, Antonio Ocimar

2010-01-01

Rainfall series at 18 stations along the major rivers of the Brazilian Amazon Basin, having data since 1920s or 1930s, are analyzed to verify if there are appreciable long-term trends. Annual, rainy-season, and dry-season rainfalls are individually analyzed for each station and for the region as a whole. Some stations showed positive trends and some negative trends. The trends in the annual rainfall are significant at only six stations, five of which reporting increasing trends (Barcelos, Belem, Manaus, Rio Branco, and Soure stations) and just one (Itaituba station) reporting decreasing trend. The climatological values of rainfall before and after 1970 show significant differences at six stations (Barcelos, Belem, Benjamin Constant, Iaurete, Itaituba, and Soure). The region as a whole shows an insignificant and weak downward trend; therefore, we cannot affirm that the rainfall in the Brazilian Amazon basin is experiencing a significant change, except at a few individual stations. Subregions with upward and downward trends are interspersed in space from the far eastern Amazon to western Amazon. Most of the seasonal trends follow the annual trends, thus, indicating a certain consistency in the datasets and analysis.

California Drought and the 2015-2016 El Niño: Implications for Seasonal Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cash, B.

2017-12-01

California winter rainfall is examined in observations and data from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and Project Metis, a new suite of seasonal integrations made using the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model. We focus on the 2015-2016 season, and the non-canonical response to the major El Niño event that occurred. We show that the Metis ensemble mean is capable of distinguishing between the response to the 1997/98 and 2015/16 events, while the two events are more similar in the NMME. We also show that unpredicted variations in the atmospheric circulation in the north Pacific significantly affect southern California rainfall totals. Improving prediction of these variations is thus a key target for improving seasonal rainfall predictions for this region.

Study of acid mine drainage management with evaluating climate and rainfall in East Pit 3 West Banko coal mine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rochyani, Neny

2017-11-01

Acid mine drainage is a major problem for the mining environment. The main factor that formed acid mine drainage is the volume of rainfall. Therefore, it is important to know clearly the main climate pattern of rainfall and season on the management of acid mine drainage. This study focuses on the effects of rainfall on acid mine water management. Based on daily rainfall data, monthly and seasonal patterns by using Gumbel approach is known the amount of rainfall that occurred in East Pit 3 West Banko area. The data also obtained the highest maximum daily rainfall on 165 mm/day and the lowest at 76.4 mm/day, where it is known that the rainfall conditions during the period 2007 - 2016 is from November to April so the use of lime is also slightly, While the low rainfall is from May to October and the use of lime will be more and more. Based on calculation of lime requirement for each return period, it can be seen the total of lime and financial requirement for treatment of each return period.

A radar-based regional extreme rainfall analysis to derive the thresholds for a novel automatic alert system in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panziera, Luca; Gabella, Marco; Zanini, Stefano; Hering, Alessandro; Germann, Urs; Berne, Alexis

2016-06-01

This paper presents a regional extreme rainfall analysis based on 10 years of radar data for the 159 regions adopted for official natural hazard warnings in Switzerland. Moreover, a nowcasting tool aimed at issuing heavy precipitation regional alerts is introduced. The two topics are closely related, since the extreme rainfall analysis provides the thresholds used by the nowcasting system for the alerts. Warm and cold seasons' monthly maxima of several statistical quantities describing regional rainfall are fitted to a generalized extreme value distribution in order to derive the precipitation amounts corresponding to sub-annual return periods for durations of 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 and 48 h. It is shown that regional return levels exhibit a large spatial variability in Switzerland, and that their spatial distribution strongly depends on the duration of the aggregation period: for accumulations of 3 h and shorter, the largest return levels are found over the northerly alpine slopes, whereas for longer durations the southern Alps exhibit the largest values. The inner alpine chain shows the lowest values, in agreement with previous rainfall climatologies. The nowcasting system presented here is aimed to issue heavy rainfall alerts for a large variety of end users, who are interested in different precipitation characteristics and regions, such as, for example, small urban areas, remote alpine catchments or administrative districts. The alerts are issued not only if the rainfall measured in the immediate past or forecast in the near future exceeds some predefined thresholds but also as soon as the sum of past and forecast precipitation is larger than threshold values. This precipitation total, in fact, has primary importance in applications for which antecedent rainfall is as important as predicted one, such as urban floods early warning systems. The rainfall fields, the statistical quantity representing regional rainfall and the frequency of alerts issued in case of continuous threshold exceedance are some of the configurable parameters of the tool. The analysis of the urban flood which occurred in the city of Schaffhausen in May 2013 suggests that this alert tool might have complementary skill with respect to radar-based thunderstorm nowcasting systems for storms which do not show a clear convective signature.

Future impacts of global warming and reforestation on drought patterns over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diasso, Ulrich; Abiodun, Babatunde J.

2017-07-01

This study investigates how a large-scale reforestation in Savanna (8-12°N, 20°W-20°E) could affect drought patterns over West Africa in the future (2031-2060) under the RCP4.5 scenario. Simulations from two regional climate models (RegCM4 and WRF) were analyzed for the study. The study first evaluated the performance of both RCMs in simulating the present-day climate and then applied the models to investigate the future impacts of global warming and reforestation on the drought patterns. The simulated and observed droughts were characterized with the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the drought patterns were classified using a Self-organizing Map (SOM) technique. The models capture essential features in the seasonal rainfall and temperature fields (including the Saharan Heat Low), but struggle to reproduce the onset and retreat of the West African Monsoon as observed. Both RCMs project a warmer climate (about 1-2 °C) over West Africa in the future. They do not reach a consensus on future change in rainfall, but they agree on a future increase in frequency of severe droughts (by about 2 to 9 events per decade) over the region. They show that reforestation over the Savanna could reduce the future warming by 0.1 to 0.8 °C and increase the precipitation by 0.8 to 1.2 mm per day. However, the impact of reforestation on the frequency of severe droughts is twofold. While reforestation decreases the droughts frequency (by about 1-2 events per decade) over the Savanna and Guinea coast, it increases droughts frequency (by 1 event per decade) over the Sahel, especially in July to September. The results of this study have application in using reforestation to mitigate impacts of climate change in West Africa.

Will climate change affect outbreak patterns of planthoppers in Bangladesh?

PubMed

Ali, M P; Huang, Dingcheng; Nachman, G; Ahmed, Nur; Begum, Mahfuz Ara; Rabbi, M F

2014-01-01

Recently, planthoppers outbreaks have intensified across Asia resulting in heavy rice yield losses. The problem has been widely reported as being induced by insecticides while other factors such as global warming that could be potential drivers have been neglected. Here, we speculate that global warming may increase outbreak risk of brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens Stål.). We present data that demonstrate the relationship between climate variables (air temperature and precipitation) and the abundance of brown planthopper (BPH) during 1998-2007. Data show that BPH has become significantly more abundant in April over the 10-year period, but our data do not indicate that this is due to a change in climate, as no significant time trends in temperature and precipitation could be demonstrated. The abundance of BPH varied considerably between months within a year which is attributed to seasonal factors, including the availability of suitable host plants. On the other hand, the variation within months is attributed to fluctuations in monthly temperature and precipitation among years. The effects of these weather variables on BPH abundance were analyzed statistically by a general linear model. The statistical model shows that the expected effect of increasing temperatures is ambiguous and interacts with the amount of rainfall. According to the model, months or areas characterized by a climate that is either cold and dry or hot and wet are likely to experience higher levels of BPH due to climate change, whereas other combinations of temperature and rainfall may reduce the abundance of BPH. The analysis indicates that global warming may have contributed to the recent outbreaks of BPH in some rice growing areas of Asia, and that the severity of such outbreaks is likely to increase if climate change exaggerates. Our study highlights the need to consider climate change when designing strategies to manage planthoppers outbreaks.

Effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and global warming on drought in the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.

2012-12-01

Droughts are among the most expensive weather related disasters in the US. In the semi-arid regions of the US Southwest, where average annual rainfall is already very low, multiyear droughts can have large economic, societal and ecological impacts. The US Southwest relies on annual precipitation maxima during winter and the North American Monsoon (NAM), both of which undergo considerable interannual variability associated with large-scale climate patterns, in particular ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The region is also part of the subtropical belt projected to become more arid in a warming climate. These impacts have not been combined and compared with projections of long-term variations due to natural climate patterns. This study addresses this need by deriving future projections of rainfall departures for Arizona and New Mexico with the PDO and AMO and combining these with projected global warming impacts. Depending on the precipitation dataset used, the impacts for the ongoing negative PDO phase are projected to be between 1-1.6 times as large as the multi-model means projection of precipitation minus evaporation during 2020-2040 in the IPCC A1B Scenario. The projected precipitation impacts of a combined negative PDO and positive AMO phase are between 1-2 times as large as the A1B Scenario projection. The study also advances earlier work by addressing problems in detecting the effect of the PDO on precipitation. Given the different mechanisms with which the PDO affects precipitation during winter and the NAM season, precipitation impacts are here investigated on a monthly scale. The impacts of the PDO also vary with other climate patterns. This can be partly addressed by investigating precipitation departures in dependence on other patterns. It is further found that the long-term effect of the PDO can be more clearly separated from short-term variability by considering return periods of multi-year drought measures rather than return periods of simple drought measures.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

: Monsoon progress image (Link) IITM : 2017 Monsoon (Link) SW Monsoon, 2016 IMD : Daily rainfall report (30th September, 2016) (Link) IMD : End of season Monsoon Report (2016) (Link) SW Monsoon, 2015 IMD : Daily rainfall report (30th September, 2015) (Link) IMD : End of season Monsoon Report (2015) (Link

Cluster analysis applied to the spatial and temporal variability of monthly rainfall in Mato Grosso do Sul State, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teodoro, Paulo Eduardo; de Oliveira-Júnior, José Francisco; da Cunha, Elias Rodrigues; Correa, Caio Cezar Guedes; Torres, Francisco Eduardo; Bacani, Vitor Matheus; Gois, Givanildo; Ribeiro, Larissa Pereira

2016-04-01

The State of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS) located in Brazil Midwest is devoid of climatological studies, mainly in the characterization of rainfall regime and producers' meteorological systems and rain inhibitors. This state has different soil and climatic characteristics distributed among three biomes: Cerrado, Atlantic Forest and Pantanal. This study aimed to apply the cluster analysis using Ward's algorithm and identify those meteorological systems that affect the rainfall regime in the biomes. The rainfall data of 32 stations (sites) of the MS State were obtained from the Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) database, collected from 1954 to 2013. In each of the 384 monthly rainfall temporal series was calculated the average and applied the Ward's algorithm to identify spatial and temporal variability of rainfall. Bartlett's test revealed only in January homogeneous variance at all sites. Run test showed that there was no increase or decrease in trend of monthly rainfall. Cluster analysis identified five rainfall homogeneous regions in the MS State, followed by three seasons (rainy, transitional and dry). The rainy season occurs during the months of November, December, January, February and March. The transitional season ranges between the months of April and May, September and October. The dry season occurs in June, July and August. The groups G1, G4 and G5 are influenced by South Atlantic Subtropical Anticyclone (SASA), Chaco's Low (CL), Bolivia's High (BH), Low Levels Jet (LLJ) and South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and Maden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Group G2 is influenced by Upper Tropospheric Cyclonic Vortex (UTCV) and Front Systems (FS). The group G3 is affected by UTCV, FS and SACZ. The meteorological systems' interaction that operates in each biome and the altitude causes the rainfall spatial and temporal diversity in MS State.

Weather types across the Caribbean basin and their relationship with rainfall and sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moron, Vincent; Gouirand, Isabelle; Taylor, Michael

2016-07-01

Eight weather types (WTs) are computed over 98.75°W-56.25°W, 8.75°N-31.25°N using cluster analysis of daily low-level (925 hPa) winds and outgoing longwave radiation, without removing the mean annual cycle, by a k-means algorithm from 1979 to 2013. The WTs can be firstly interpreted as snapshots of the annual cycle with a clear distinction between 5 "wintertime" and 3 "summertime" WTs, which account together for 70 % of the total mean annual rainfall across the studied domain. The wintertime WTs occur mostly from late November to late April and are characterized by varying intensity and location of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) and transient synoptic troughs along the northern edge of the domain. Large-scale subsidence dominates the whole basin but rainfall can occur over sections of the basin, especially on the windward shores of the troughs associated with the synoptic waves. The transition between wintertime and summertime WTs is rather abrupt, especially in May. One summertime WT (WT 4) is prevalent in summer, and almost exclusive around late July. It is characterized by strong NASH, fast Caribbean low level jet and rainfall mostly concentrated over the Caribbean Islands, the Florida Peninsula, the whole Central America and the tropical Eastern Pacific. The two remaining summertime WTs display widespread rainfall respectively from Central America to Bermuda (WT 5) and over the Eastern Caribbean (WT 6). Both WTs combine reduced regional scale subsidence and weaker Caribbean low-level jet relatively to WT 4. The relationships between WT frequency and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are broadly linear. Warm central and eastern ENSO events are associated with more WT 4 (less WT 5-6) during boreal summer and autumn (0) while this relationship is reversed during boreal summer (+1) for central events only. In boreal winter, the largest anomalies are observed for two WTs consistent with negative (WT 2) and positive (WT 8) phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation; more (less) WT 2 and less (more) WT 8 than usually occur from January to early April during warm (cold) ENSO events, the strongest anomalies being recorded during eastern events. Multinomial logistic regression is used to hindcast the 11-day low-pass filtered occurrence of WTs from local (Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) and remote (Eastern and Central Tropical Pacific) sea surface temperatures (SSTs). In boreal summer, the interannual variability of the seasonal occurrence of WTs 4-6 is well hindcast when at least the Caribbean Sea and Eastern Tropical Pacific are included as predictors with anomalously warm (cold) SSTs over the Caribbean Sea (Eastern Tropical Pacific) being related to more WT 5-6 and less WT 4 and vice-versa. Using antecedent SST to forecast WT frequency shows that the SST forcing is negligible at the start of boreal summer and increases toward its end.

Seasonal nitrogen effects on nutritive value in binary mixtures of tall fescue and bermudagrass

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Year-round forage production is feasible in much of the southeastern USA through utilization of cool- and warm-season forages. This study determined changes in herbage nutritive value in binary mixtures of cool-season, tall fescue [Schedonorus arundinaceus (Schreb.) Dumort], and warm-season, bermuda...

Climate Change Impact on Neotropical Social Wasps

PubMed Central

Dejean, Alain; Céréghino, Régis; Carpenter, James M.; Corbara, Bruno; Hérault, Bruno; Rossi, Vivien; Leponce, Maurice; Orivel, Jérome; Bonal, Damien

2011-01-01

Establishing a direct link between climate change and fluctuations in animal populations through long-term monitoring is difficult given the paucity of baseline data. We hypothesized that social wasps are sensitive to climatic variations, and thus studied the impact of ENSO events on social wasp populations in French Guiana. We noted that during the 2000 La Niña year there was a 77.1% decrease in their nest abundance along ca. 5 km of forest edges, and that 70.5% of the species were no longer present. Two simultaneous 13-year surveys (1997–2009) confirmed the decrease in social wasps during La Niña years (2000 and 2006), while an increase occurred during the 2009 El Niño year. A 30-year weather survey showed that these phenomena corresponded to particularly high levels of rainfall, and that temperature, humidity and global solar radiation were correlated with rainfall. Using the Self-Organizing Map algorithm, we show that heavy rainfall during an entire rainy season has a negative impact on social wasps. Strong contrasts in rainfall between the dry season and the short rainy season exacerbate this effect. Social wasp populations never recovered to their pre-2000 levels. This is probably because these conditions occurred over four years; heavy rainfall during the major rainy seasons during four other years also had a detrimental effect. On the contrary, low levels of rainfall during the major rainy season in 2009 spurred an increase in social wasp populations. We conclude that recent climatic changes have likely resulted in fewer social wasp colonies because they have lowered the wasps' resistance to parasitoids and pathogens. These results imply that Neotropical social wasps can be regarded as bio-indicators because they highlight the impact of climatic changes not yet perceptible in plants and other animals. PMID:22073236

An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Stephanie J.; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steven; Martin, Gill; MacLachlan, Craig

2017-03-01

We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 Indian summer monsoon seasonal prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

Climate change impact on neotropical social wasps.

PubMed

Dejean, Alain; Céréghino, Régis; Carpenter, James M; Corbara, Bruno; Hérault, Bruno; Rossi, Vivien; Leponce, Maurice; Orivel, Jérome; Bonal, Damien

2011-01-01

Establishing a direct link between climate change and fluctuations in animal populations through long-term monitoring is difficult given the paucity of baseline data. We hypothesized that social wasps are sensitive to climatic variations, and thus studied the impact of ENSO events on social wasp populations in French Guiana. We noted that during the 2000 La Niña year there was a 77.1% decrease in their nest abundance along ca. 5 km of forest edges, and that 70.5% of the species were no longer present. Two simultaneous 13-year surveys (1997-2009) confirmed the decrease in social wasps during La Niña years (2000 and 2006), while an increase occurred during the 2009 El Niño year. A 30-year weather survey showed that these phenomena corresponded to particularly high levels of rainfall, and that temperature, humidity and global solar radiation were correlated with rainfall. Using the Self-Organizing Map algorithm, we show that heavy rainfall during an entire rainy season has a negative impact on social wasps. Strong contrasts in rainfall between the dry season and the short rainy season exacerbate this effect. Social wasp populations never recovered to their pre-2000 levels. This is probably because these conditions occurred over four years; heavy rainfall during the major rainy seasons during four other years also had a detrimental effect. On the contrary, low levels of rainfall during the major rainy season in 2009 spurred an increase in social wasp populations. We conclude that recent climatic changes have likely resulted in fewer social wasp colonies because they have lowered the wasps' resistance to parasitoids and pathogens. These results imply that Neotropical social wasps can be regarded as bio-indicators because they highlight the impact of climatic changes not yet perceptible in plants and other animals.

On the distributions of annual and seasonal daily rainfall extremes in central Arizona and their spatial variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mascaro, Giuseppe

2018-04-01

This study uses daily rainfall records of a dense network of 240 gauges in central Arizona to gain insights on (i) the variability of the seasonal distributions of rainfall extremes; (ii) how the seasonal distributions affect the shape of the annual distribution; and (iii) the presence of spatial patterns and orographic control for these distributions. For this aim, recent methodological advancements in peak-over-threshold analysis and application of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) were used to assess the suitability of the GPD hypothesis and improve the estimation of its parameters, while limiting the effect of short sample sizes. The distribution of daily rainfall extremes was found to be heavy-tailed (i.e., GPD shape parameter ξ > 0) during the summer season, dominated by convective monsoonal thunderstorms. The exponential distribution (a special case of GPD with ξ = 0) was instead showed to be appropriate for modeling wintertime daily rainfall extremes, mainly caused by cold fronts transported by westerly flow. The annual distribution exhibited a mixed behavior, with lighter upper tails than those found in summer. A hybrid model mixing the two seasonal distributions was demonstrated capable of reproducing the annual distribution. Organized spatial patterns, mainly controlled by elevation, were observed for the GPD scale parameter, while ξ did not show any clear control of location or orography. The quantiles returned by the GPD were found to be very similar to those provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14, which used the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Results of this work are useful to improve statistical modeling of daily rainfall extremes at high spatial resolution and provide diagnostic tools for assessing the ability of climate models to simulate extreme events.

Effects of rainfall seasonality and soil moisture capacity on mean annual water balance for Australian catchments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Potter, N.J.; Zhang, L.; Milly, P.C.D.; McMahon, T.A.; Jakeman, A.J.

2005-01-01

An important factor controlling catchment‐scale water balance is the seasonal variation of climate. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of the seasonal distributions of water and energy, and their interactions with the soil moisture store, on mean annual water balance in Australia at catchment scales using a stochastic model of soil moisture balance with seasonally varying forcing. The rainfall regime at 262 catchments around Australia was modeled as a Poisson process with the mean storm arrival rate and the mean storm depth varying throughout the year as cosine curves with annual periods. The soil moisture dynamics were represented by use of a single, finite water store having infinite infiltration capacity, and the potential evapotranspiration rate was modeled as an annual cosine curve. The mean annual water budget was calculated numerically using a Monte Carlo simulation. The model predicted that for a given level of climatic aridity the ratio of mean annual evapotranspiration to rainfall was larger where the potential evapotranspiration and rainfall were in phase, that is, in summer‐dominant rainfall catchments, than where they were out of phase. The observed mean annual evapotranspiration ratios have opposite results. As a result, estimates of mean annual evapotranspiration from the model compared poorly with observational data. Because the inclusion of seasonally varying forcing alone was not sufficient to explain variability in the mean annual water balance, other catchment properties may play a role. Further analysis showed that the water balance was highly sensitive to the catchment‐scale soil moisture capacity. Calibrations of this parameter indicated that infiltration‐excess runoff might be an important process, especially for the summer‐dominant rainfall catchments; most similar studies have shown that modeling of infiltration‐excess runoff is not required at the mean annual timescale.

Extent of Night Warming Differentiates the Temporal Trend of Tropical Greenness over 2001-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, M.; Gao, Q.; Gao, C.; Wang, C.

2016-12-01

Tropical forests have essential functions in global C dynamic but vulnerable to changes in land cover land use (LCLUC) and climate. The tropics of Caribbean are experiencing warming and drying climate and diverse LCLUC. However, large-scale studies to detect long-term trends of C and associated mechanisms are still rare. Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we investigated trend of greenness in the Greater Antilles Caribbean during 2000 - 2015 and further analyzed the trend of vegetation patches without LCLUC to separate the climate impacts. We hypothesized that rainfall decrease or/and warming would reduce EVI in this tropical region. All five countries showed significantly decreasing EVI except Cuba of which EVI was increasing partly due to strong reforestation. Haiti has the steepest decreasing EVI due to its deforestation for charcoals. EVI trend varied greatly even for patches without LCLUC, tending to decrease in the windward but increase in the leeward of the island Puerto Rico. Contrary to our intuition, the rainfall was mostly increasing. However the rising night temperature significantly and negatively correlates with the spatial pattern of EVI trends. Although the cooled daytime and increased rainfall might enhance EVI, night warming dominated the climate impacts and differentiated the EVI trend.

A monsoon-like Southwest Australian circulation and its relation with rainfall in Southwest Western Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Juan; Li, Jianping; Li, Yun

2010-05-01

Using the NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40 reanalysis, and precipitation data from CMAP and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the variability and circulation features influencing the southwest Western Australia (SWWA) winter rainfall are investigated. It is found that the climate of southwest Australia bears a strong seasonality in the annual cycle and exhibits a monsoon-like atmospheric circulation, which is termed as the southwest Australian circulation (SWAC) for its several distinct features characterizing a monsoonal circulation: the seasonal reversal of winds, alternate wet and dry seasons, and an evident land-sea thermal contrast. The seasonal march of the SWAC in extended winter (May to October) is demonstrated by pentad data. An index based on the dynamics normalized seasonality was introduced to describe the behavior and variation of the winter SWAC. It is found that the winter rainfall over SWWA has a significant positive correlation with the SWAC index in both early (May to July) and late (August to October) winter. In weaker winter SWAC years there is an anti-cyclonic anomaly over southern Indian Ocean resulting in weaker westerlies and northerlies which are not favorable for more rainfall over SWWA, and the opposite combination is true in the stronger winter SWAC years. The SWAC explains not only a large portion of the interannual variability of SWWA rainfall in both early and late winter, but also the long term drying trend over SWWA in early winter. The well-coupled SWAC-SWWA rainfall relationship seems to be largely independent of the well-known effects of large-scale atmospheric circulations such as the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and ENSO Modoki (EM). The result offers qualified support for the argument that the monsoon-like circulation may contribute to the rainfall decline in early winter over SWWA.

Role of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region in the northeast Asia severe drought in summer 2014: month-to-month perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhiqing; Fan, Ke; Wang, HuiJun

2017-09-01

The severe drought over northeast Asia in summer 2014 and the contribution to it by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region were investigated from the month-to-month perspective. The severe drought was accompanied by weak lower-level summer monsoon flow and featured an obvious northward movement during summer. The mid-latitude Asian summer (MAS) pattern and East Asia/Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern, induced by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) rainfall anomalies respectively, were two main bridges between the SST anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region and the severe drought. Warming in the Arabian Sea induced reduced rainfall over northeast India and then triggered a negative MAS pattern favoring the severe drought in June 2014. In July 2014, warming in the tropical western North Pacific led to a strong WNPSM and increased rainfall over the Philippine Sea, triggering a positive EAP pattern. The equatorial eastern Pacific and local warming resulted in increased rainfall over the off-equatorial western Pacific and triggered an EAP-like pattern. The EAP pattern and EAP-like pattern contributed to the severe drought in July 2014. A negative Indian Ocean dipole induced an anomalous meridional circulation, and warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific induced an anomalous zonal circulation, in August 2014. The two anomalous cells led to a weak ISM and WNPSM, triggering the negative MAS and EAP patterns responsible for the severe drought. Two possible reasons for the northward movement of the drought were also proposed.

Seasonality in cholera dynamics: A rainfall-driven model explains the wide range of patterns in endemic areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baracchini, Theo; King, Aaron A.; Bouma, Menno J.; Rodó, Xavier; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Pascual, Mercedes

2017-10-01

Seasonal patterns in cholera dynamics exhibit pronounced variability across geographical regions, showing single or multiple peaks at different times of the year. Although multiple hypotheses related to local climate variables have been proposed, an understanding of this seasonal variation remains incomplete. The historical Bengal region, which encompasses the full range of cholera's seasonality observed worldwide, provides a unique opportunity to gain insights on underlying environmental drivers. Here, we propose a mechanistic, rainfall-temperature driven, stochastic epidemiological model which explicitly accounts for the fluctuations of the aquatic reservoir, and analyze with this model the historical dataset of cholera mortality in the Bengal region. Parameters are inferred with a recently developed sequential Monte Carlo method for likelihood maximization in partially observed Markov processes. Results indicate that the hydrological regime is a major driver of the seasonal dynamics of cholera. Rainfall tends to buffer the propagation of the disease in wet regions due to the longer residence times of water in the environment and an associated dilution effect, whereas it enhances cholera resurgence in dry regions. Moreover, the dynamics of the environmental water reservoir determine whether the seasonality is unimodal or bimodal, as well as its phase relative to the monsoon. Thus, the full range of seasonal patterns can be explained based solely on the local variation of rainfall and temperature. Given the close connection between cholera seasonality and environmental conditions, a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms would allow the better management and planning of public health policies with respect to climate variability and climate change.

Seasonal forecasting of fire over Kalimantan, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spessa, A. C.; Field, R. D.; Pappenberger, F.; Langner, A.; Englhart, S.; Weber, U.; Stockdale, T.; Siegert, F.; Kaiser, J. W.; Moore, J.

2015-03-01

Large-scale fires occur frequently across Indonesia, particularly in the southern region of Kalimantan and eastern Sumatra. They have considerable impacts on carbon emissions, haze production, biodiversity, health, and economic activities. In this study, we demonstrate that severe fire and haze events in Indonesia can generally be predicted months in advance using predictions of seasonal rainfall from the ECMWF System 4 coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Based on analyses of long, up-to-date series observations on burnt area, rainfall, and tree cover, we demonstrate that fire activity is negatively correlated with rainfall and is positively associated with deforestation in Indonesia. There is a contrast between the southern region of Kalimantan (high fire activity, high tree cover loss, and strong non-linear correlation between observed rainfall and fire) and the central region of Kalimantan (low fire activity, low tree cover loss, and weak, non-linear correlation between observed rainfall and fire). The ECMWF seasonal forecast provides skilled forecasts of burnt and fire-affected area with several months lead time explaining at least 70% of the variance between rainfall and burnt and fire-affected area. Results are strongly influenced by El Niño years which show a consistent positive bias. Overall, our findings point to a high potential for using a more physical-based method for predicting fires with several months lead time in the tropics rather than one based on indexes only. We argue that seasonal precipitation forecasts should be central to Indonesia's evolving fire management policy.

Congo Basin rainfall climatology: can we believe the climate models?

PubMed

Washington, Richard; James, Rachel; Pearce, Helen; Pokam, Wilfried M; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran

2013-01-01

The Congo Basin is one of three key convective regions on the planet which, during the transition seasons, dominates global tropical rainfall. There is little agreement as to the distribution and quantity of rainfall across the basin with datasets differing by an order of magnitude in some seasons. The location of maximum rainfall is in the far eastern sector of the basin in some datasets but the far western edge of the basin in others during March to May. There is no consistent pattern to this rainfall distribution in satellite or model datasets. Resolving these differences is difficult without ground-based data. Moisture flux nevertheless emerges as a useful variable with which to study these differences. Climate models with weak (strong) or even divergent moisture flux over the basin are dry (wet). The paper suggests an approach, via a targeted field campaign, for generating useful climate information with which to confront rainfall products and climate models.

Land-atmosphere coupling manifested in warm-season observations on the U.S. southern great plains

DOE PAGES

Phillips, Thomas J.; Klein, Stephen A.

2014-01-28

This study examines several observational aspects of land-atmosphere coupling on daily average time scales during warm seasons of the years 1997 to 2008 at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility site near Lamont, Oklahoma. Characteristics of the local land-atmosphere coupling are inferred by analyzing the covariability of selected land and atmospheric variables that include precipitation and soil moisture, surface air temperature, relative humidity, radiant and turbulent fluxes, as well as low-level cloud base height and fractional coverage. For both the energetic and hydrological aspects of this coupling, it is found that large-scalemore » atmospheric forcings predominate, with local feedbacks of the land on the atmosphere being comparatively small much of the time. The weak land feedbacks are manifested by 1) the inability of soil moisture to comprehensively impact the coupled land-atmosphere energetics, and 2) the limited recycling of local surface moisture under conditions where most of the rainfall derives from convective cells that originate at remote locations. There is some evidence, nevertheless, of the local land feedback becoming stronger as the soil dries out in the aftermath of precipitation events, or on days when the local boundary-layer clouds are influenced by thermal updrafts known to be associated with convection originating at the surface. Finally, we also discuss potential implications of these results for climate-model representation of regional land-atmosphere coupling.« less

More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall

PubMed Central

Feng, Zhe; Leung, L. Ruby; Hagos, Samson; Houze, Robert A.; Burleyson, Casey D.; Balaguru, Karthik

2016-01-01

The changes in extreme rainfall associated with a warming climate have drawn significant attention in recent years. Mounting evidence shows that sub-daily convective rainfall extremes are increasing faster than the rate of change in the atmospheric precipitable water capacity with a warming climate. However, the response of extreme precipitation depends on the type of storm supported by the meteorological environment. Here using long-term satellite, surface radar and rain-gauge network data and atmospheric reanalyses, we show that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in the central United States are dominated by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), the largest type of convective storm, with increased frequency and intensity of long-lasting MCSs. A strengthening of the southerly low-level jet and its associated moisture transport in the Central/Northern Great Plains, in the overall climatology and particularly on days with long-lasting MCSs, accounts for the changes in the precipitation produced by these storms. PMID:27834368

More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall

DOE PAGES

Feng, Zhe; Leung, L. Ruby; Hagos, Samson M.; ...

2016-11-11

Here, the changes in extreme rainfall associated with a warming climate have drawn significant attention in recent years. Mounting evidence shows that sub-daily convective rainfall extremes are increasing faster than the rate of change in the atmospheric precipitable water capacity with a warming climate. However, the response of extreme precipitation depends on the type of storm supported by the meteorological environment. Here using long-term satellite, surface radar and rain-gauge network data and atmospheric reanalyses, we show that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in 36 the central U.S. are dominated by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), the largestmore » type of convective storm, with increased frequency and intensity of long-lasting MCSs. A strengthening of the southerly low-level jet and its associated moisture transport in the Central/Northern Great Plains, in the overall climatology and particularly on days with long-lasting MCSs, accounts for the changes in the precipitation produced by these storms.« less

More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feng, Zhe; Leung, L. Ruby; Hagos, Samson M.

Here, the changes in extreme rainfall associated with a warming climate have drawn significant attention in recent years. Mounting evidence shows that sub-daily convective rainfall extremes are increasing faster than the rate of change in the atmospheric precipitable water capacity with a warming climate. However, the response of extreme precipitation depends on the type of storm supported by the meteorological environment. Here using long-term satellite, surface radar and rain-gauge network data and atmospheric reanalyses, we show that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in 36 the central U.S. are dominated by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), the largestmore » type of convective storm, with increased frequency and intensity of long-lasting MCSs. A strengthening of the southerly low-level jet and its associated moisture transport in the Central/Northern Great Plains, in the overall climatology and particularly on days with long-lasting MCSs, accounts for the changes in the precipitation produced by these storms.« less

Environmental Humidity Regulates Effects of Experimental Warming on Vegetation Index and Biomass Production in an Alpine Meadow of the Northern Tibet

PubMed Central

Fu, Gang; Shen, Zhen Xi

2016-01-01

Uncertainty about responses of vegetation index, aboveground biomass (AGB) and gross primary production (GPP) limits our ability to predict how climatic warming will influence plant growth in alpine regions. A field warming experiment was conducted in an alpine meadow at a low (4313 m), mid- (4513 m) and high elevation (4693 m) in the Northern Tibet since May 2010. Growing season vapor pressure deficit (VPD), soil temperature (Ts) and air temperature (Ta) decreased with increasing elevation, while growing season precipitation, soil moisture (SM), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), AGB and GPP increased with increasing elevation. The growing season Ta, Ts and VPD in 2015 was greater than that in 2014, while the growing season precipitation, SM, NDVI, SAVI, AGB and GPP in 2015 was lower than that in 2014, respectively. Compared to the mean air temperature and precipitation during the growing season in 1963–2015, it was a warmer and wetter year in 2014 and a warmer and drier year in 2015. Experimental warming increased growing season Ts, Ta,VPD, but decreased growing season SM in 2014–2015 at all the three elevations. Experimental warming only reduced growing season NDVI, SAVI, AGB and GPP at the low elevation in 2015. Growing season NDVI, SAVI, AGB and GPP increased with increasing SM and precipitation, but decreased with increasing VPD, indicating vegetation index and biomass production increased with environmental humidity. The VPD explained more variation of growing season NDVI, SAVI, AGB and GPP compared to Ts, Ta and SM at all the three elevations. Therefore, environmental humidity regulated the effect of experimental warming on vegetation index and biomass production in alpine meadows on the Tibetan Plateau. PMID:27798690

Diagnosing observed characteristics of the wet season across Africa to identify deficiencies in climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunning, C.; Black, E.; Allan, R. P.

2017-12-01

The seasonality of rainfall over Africa plays a key role in determining socio-economic impacts for agricultural stakeholders, influences energy supply from hydropower, affects the length of the malaria transmission season and impacts surface water supplies. Hence, failure or delays of these rains can lead to significant socio-economic impacts. Diagnosing and interpreting interannual variability and long-term trends in seasonality, and analysing the physical driving mechanisms, requires a robust definition of African precipitation seasonality, applicable to both observational datasets and model simulations. Here we present a methodology for objectively determining the onset and cessation of multiple wet seasons across the whole of Africa. Compatibility with known physical drivers of African rainfall, consistency with indigenous methods, and generally strong agreement between satellite-based rainfall data sets confirm that the method is capturing the correct seasonal progression of African rainfall. Application of this method to observational datasets reveals that over East Africa cessation of the short rains is 5 days earlier in La Nina years, and the failure of the rains and subsequent humanitarian disaster is associated with shorter as well as weaker rainy seasons over this region. The method is used to examine the representation of the seasonality of African precipitation in CMIP5 model simulations. Overall, atmosphere-only and fully coupled CMIP5 historical simulations represent essential aspects of the seasonal cycle; patterns of seasonal progression of the rainy season are captured, for the most part mean model onset/ cessation dates agree with mean observational dates to within 18 days. However, unlike the atmosphere-only simulations, the coupled simulations do not capture the biannual regime over the southern West African coastline, linked to errors in Gulf of Guinea Sea Surface Temperature. Application to both observational and climate model datasets, and good agreement with agricultural onset methods, indicates the potential applicability of this method to a variety of meteorological and climate impact studies.

An evaluation of government-recommended stocking systems for sustaining pastoral businesses and ecosystems of the Alpine Meadows of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Wang, Yingxin; Hodgkinson, Kenneth C; Hou, Fujiang; Wang, Zhaofeng; Chang, Shenghua

2018-04-01

China introduced the "Retire Livestock and Restore Grassland" policy in 2003. It was strengthened in 2011 by additional funding for on-farm structures. On the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), fences were erected, livestock excluded from degraded areas, rotational stocking introduced, nighttime shelters were built, forages grown, and seed sown. However, the effectiveness of these actions and their value to Tibetan herders has been questioned. We conducted a sheep stocking experiment for 5 years in an Alpine Meadow region of the QTP to evaluate stocking options recommended by Government. Cold and warm season stocking each at three rates (0, 8, and 16 sheep/ha) and continuous stocking at 0 and 4 sheep/ha were compared. We measured live weights of sheep, plant species richness and evenness, root biomass and carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) contents of the 0-10 cm of soil. We found that resting grassland from stocking during the warm season for later cold season stocking significantly reduced plant species richness and evenness and root biomass but not soil C, N, and P. During cold season stocking, live weights of sheep declined whether at a stocking rate of 8 or 16 per ha. In contrast, sheep continuously stocked on grassland at 4 per ha gained weight throughout both the warm and cold seasons and plant species richness and evenness were maintained. Warm season stocking at 8 and 16 sheep/ha increased plant species richness and root biomass but reduced plant species evenness. Resting these alpine grasslands from stocking in the warm season has adverse consequences for plant conservation. Fencing from stocking in the warm season is not justified by this study; all grassland should be judiciously stocked during the warm season to maintain plant species richness. Neither resting nor stocking during the cold season appears to have any adverse consequences but sheltering and in-door feeding of sheep during the cold season may be more profitable than cold season stocking with use of open nighttime yards.

An evaluation of WRF microphysics schemes for simulating the warm-type heavy rain over the Korean peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Hwan-Jin; Sohn, Byung-Ju

2018-01-01

The Korean peninsula is the region of distinctly showing the heavy rain associated with relatively low storm height and small ice water content in the upper part of cloud system (i.e., so-called warm-type heavy rainfall). The satellite observations for the warmtype rain over Korea led to a conjecture that the cloud microphysics parameterization suitable for the continental deep convection may not work well for the warm-type heavy rainfall over the Korean peninsula. Therefore, there is a growing need to examine the performance of cloud microphysics schemes for simulating the warm-type heavy rain structures over the Korean peninsula. This study aims to evaluate the capabilities of eight microphysics schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model how warmtype heavy rain structures can be simulated, in reference to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) reflectivity measurements. The results indicate that the WRF Double Moment 6-class (WDM6) scheme simulated best the vertical structure of warm-type heavy rain by virtue of a reasonable collisioncoalescence process between liquid droplets and the smallest amount of snow. Nonetheless the WDM6 scheme appears to have limitations that need to be improved upon for a realistic reflectivity structure, in terms of the reflectivity slope below the melting layer, discontinuity in reflectivity profiles around the melting layer, and overestimation of upper-level reflectivity due to high graupel content.

Uncertainties in TRMM-Era multisatellite-based tropical rainfall estimates over the Maritime Continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rauniyar, S. P.; Protat, A.; Kanamori, H.

2017-05-01

This study investigates the regional and seasonal rainfall rate retrieval uncertainties within nine state-of-the-art satellite-based rainfall products over the Maritime Continent (MC) region. The results show consistently larger differences in mean daily rainfall among products over land, especially over mountains and along coasts, compared to over ocean, by about 20% for low to medium rain rates and 5% for heavy rain rates. However, rainfall differences among the products do not exhibit any seasonal dependency over both surface types (land and ocean) of the MC region. The differences between products largely depends on the rain rate itself, with a factor 2 difference for light rain and 30% for intermediate and high rain rates over ocean. The rain-rate products dominated by microwave measurements showed less spread among themselves over ocean compared to the products dominated by infrared measurements. Conversely, over land, the rain gauge-adjusted post-real-time products dominated by microwave measurements produced the largest spreads, due to the usage of different gauge analyses for the bias corrections. Intercomparisons of rainfall characteristics of these products revealed large discrepancies in detecting the frequency and intensity of rainfall. These satellite products are finally evaluated at subdaily, daily, monthly, intraseasonal, and seasonal temporal scales against high-quality gridded rainfall observations in the Sarawak (Malaysia) region for the 4 year period 2000-2003. No single satellite-based rainfall product clearly outperforms the other products at all temporal scales. General guidelines are provided for selecting a product that could be best suited for a particular application and/or temporal resolution.

Isotopic paleoecology of Clovis mammoths from Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metcalfe, Jessica Z.; Longstaffe, Fred J.; Ballenger, Jesse A. M.; Vance Haynes, C., Jr.

2011-11-01

The causes of megafaunal extinctions in North America have been widely debated but remain poorly understood. Mammoths (Mammuthus spp.) in the American Southwest were hunted by Clovis people during a period of rapid climate change, just before the regional onset of Younger Dryas cooling and mammoth extirpation. Thus, these mammoths may provide key insights into late Pleistocene extinction processes. Here we reconstruct the seasonal diet and climatic conditions experienced by mammoths in the San Pedro Valley of Arizona, using the carbon (13C/12C) and oxygen (18O/16O) isotope compositions of tooth enamel. These records suggest that Clovis mammoths experienced a warm, dry climate with sufficient summer rainfall to support seasonal C4 plant growth. Monsoon intensity may have been reduced relative to the preceding time period, but there is no isotopic evidence for severe drought. However, it is possible that the "Clovis drought", inferred from stratigraphic evidence, occurred suddenly at the end of the animals' lives and thus was not recorded in the enamel isotopic compositions. Unlike mammoths that lived before the Last Glacial Maximum, Clovis mammoths regularly increased C4 grass consumption during summer, probably seeking seasonally green grasslands farther from the river valley. This predictable seasonal behavior may have made mammoths easier to locate by Clovis hunters. Furthermore, Clovis mammoths probably had no previous experience of such sudden climatic change as is believed to have occurred at the time of their extinction.

Potential contribution of groundwater to dry-season ET in the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo; Fan, Ying

2010-05-01

Climate and land ecosystem models simulate vegetation stress in the Amazon forest in the dry season, but observations show enhanced growth in response to higher radiation under less cloudy skies indicating an adequate water supply. The question is: how does the vegetation obtain sufficient water, and what is missing in the models? Shallow model soil and rooting depth is a factor; the ability of roots to move water up and down (hydraulic redistribution) may be another, but another cause may lie in the buffering effect of the groundwater found in nature but absent in models. We present observational and modeling evidence that the vast groundwater store, consequence of high annual rainfall combined with poor drainage in the Amazon, may provide a stable source for dry-season photosynthesis. The water table beneath the Amazon is sufficiently shallow (38% area <5m and 63% area <10m deep) as to contribute >2mm/day to dry-season evapotranspiration, a non-negligible portion of tower-observed flux of 3-4mm/day, the latter including canopy-interception loss and open-water evaporation. This may have important implications to our understanding of Amazonia ecosystem response and feedback to climate change. Current models, lacking groundwater, predict a significant reduction in dry-season photosynthesis under current climate and large-scale dieback under projected future climate converting the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net source and accelerating warming. If groundwater is considered in the models, the magnitude of the responses and feedbacks may be reduced.

Seasonal Transitions and the Westerly Jet in the Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, W.; Chiang, J. C. H.

2015-12-01

The Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) was characterized by a trend to weaker monsoon intensity paced by orbital insolation. Here, we attribute the stronger EASM intensity in the early-mid Holocene to changes in the timing of the transition between the EASM seasonal stages - Spring, pre Mei- Yu, Mei-Yu, and Summer - during that time. Following the recent 'jet transition hypothesis' (Chiang et al., 2015), we explore the role of north-south displacement of the westerlies relative to the Tibetan Plateau that is hypothesized to control the downstream EASM seasonality changes across the Holocene. To this end, we analyze model simulations of the Holocene EASM, compare the simulated Holocene climate with the paleodata observations, and examine the role of atmospheric circulation and specifically the westerlies in modulating the East Asia summer climate. The PMIP3 climate model simulations suggest that, compared to the pre-industrial, the Mei-Yu onset and the transition from Mei-Yu to Summer rainfall occur earlier in the mid-Holocene. The advanced seasonal rainfall transition is accompanied by the weakened and northward-shifted upstream westerlies. In our atmospheric general circulation model (coupled to a slab ocean) simulations of various time periods across the Holocene (9ka, 6ka, 3ka, and pre-industrial), we quantitatively show that the timing and the length of each rainfall stage are closely related to the jet position over East Asia. We also show that the simulated changes in the maximum annual rainfall band and dust emission over East Asia largely agree with the paleo-proxy observations. In addition, we find that changes to the seasonal rainfall transitions, latitudinal westerly position, and stationary eddy activity over East Asia co-vary across the Holocene. In particular, we argue that the changes in the rainfall seasonal transitions are tied to an altered stationary wave pattern, resembling today's the so-called 'Silk Road Pattern', riding along the westerly jet. We end by discussing the mechanism that is proposed to explain the changed EASM seasonality across the Holocene.

[Effect of precipitation and seasonal period on the patterns of commuting to school in children and adolescents from Granada].

PubMed

Segura-Díaz, José Manuel; Herrador-Colmenero, Manuel; Martínez-Téllez, Borja; Chillón Garzón, Palma

2014-12-17

Active commuting (walking or cycling) to school contributes to increase physical activity levels in young people. Meteorological conditions might have a remarkable influence on this behaviour. The aim is to study the impact of the rainfall and seasonality on the mode of commuting to primary school or secondary school in children and adolescents from Granada. A total of 384 students (166 children and 218 adolescents) between 8-18 years from 2 different schools (primary and secondary schools) of Granada took part in the research. Participants filled a questionnaire about their weekly pattern on the mode of commuting to school in the three seasons of the academic year. Data about the rainfall in those three weeks was obtained from the National Agency of Meteorology. The association between rainfall and seasonality with mode of commuting to school was studied by McNemar test. No significant associations were spotted between the rainfall and the seasonality with mode of commuting in children and adolescents (p>0.05) except for: a) a positive effect of rainfall in the percentage of children who usually walked to school between a rainy day and a non-rainy day in spring (p=0.031) and b) a weak effect of the seasonality on the percentage of children and adolescents who usually walk between autumn and winter (45.8% and 37.5% walk to school) and between autumn and spring (59.7% and 56%) respectively (p=0.07). The meteorological conditions do not seem to influence the mode of commuting to school in children and adolescents from Granada, which might indicate that this behavior keeps a constant pattern throughout the whole academic year. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

Analysis of seasonal water pollution based on rainfall feature at Anyang river basin in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, J. G.; Lee, Y. K.; Kim, T. H.; Hwang, E. J.

2005-08-01

To determine selected water pollution parameters of the Anyang River (one of the biggest contributory branches of the Han River in Korea) and its main tributaries, the geological and topographical and rainfall features in its basin were investigated, and the resulting data were tabulated. Samples were collected at the upper, mid and down parts of the Anyang River and its branches and were analyzed based on biochemical and chemical methods, Korean biotic index (KBI) and Saprobien systems. Selected parameters of concern include BOD, heavy metals, nonpoint pollution and sewage discharge. The Anyang River basin has a torrential heavy rainfall; however, the rate of rainfall significantly varies from season to season. Water pollution levels in the dry season increase dramatically. The mainstream of the Anyang River is classified as fifth grade polysaprobic water according to Saprobien system. In addition, the biotic index is over 2.5 in overall. General pollution at the junction of the Anyang River and each branch stream varies. Possible countermeasures to improve the water quality of the river include intercept the non-treated waste water and sewage at the Anyang River junction and each branch stream, enforcement of water management during the rainy season, and continuous investment on environmental restoration.

Prediction of early summer rainfall over South China by a physical-empirical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yim, So-Young; Wang, Bin; Xing, Wen

2014-10-01

In early summer (May-June, MJ) the strongest rainfall belt of the northern hemisphere occurs over the East Asian (EA) subtropical front. During this period the South China (SC) rainfall reaches its annual peak and represents the maximum rainfall variability over EA. Hence we establish an SC rainfall index, which is the MJ mean precipitation averaged over 72 stations over SC (south of 28°N and east of 110°E) and represents superbly the leading empirical orthogonal function mode of MJ precipitation variability over EA. In order to predict SC rainfall, we established a physical-empirical model. Analysis of 34-year observations (1979-2012) reveals three physically consequential predictors. A plentiful SC rainfall is preceded in the previous winter by (a) a dipole sea surface temperature (SST) tendency in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, (b) a tripolar SST tendency in North Atlantic Ocean, and (c) a warming tendency in northern Asia. These precursors foreshadow enhanced Philippine Sea subtropical High and Okhotsk High in early summer, which are controlling factors for enhanced subtropical frontal rainfall. The physical empirical model built on these predictors achieves a cross-validated forecast correlation skill of 0.75 for 1979-2012. Surprisingly, this skill is substantially higher than four-dynamical models' ensemble prediction for 1979-2010 period (0.15). The results here suggest that the low prediction skill of current dynamical models is largely due to models' deficiency and the dynamical prediction has large room to improve.

A Robust Response of Precipitation to Global Warming from CMIP5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. -M.; Wu, H. -T.; Kim, K. -M.

2012-01-01

How precipitation responds to global warming is a major concern to society and a challenge to climate change research. Based on analyses of rainfall probability distribution functions of 14 state-of-the-art climate models, we find a robust, canonical global rainfall response to a triple CO2 warming scenario, featuring 100 250% more heavy rain, 5-10% less moderate rain, and 10-15% more very light or no-rain events. Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy rain events over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, and more dry events over subtropical and tropical land areas. Results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce basic structural changes in global rain systems, increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.

An evaluation of soil water outlooks for winter wheat in south-eastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Western, A. W.; Dassanayake, K. B.; Perera, K. C.; Alves, O.; Young, G.; Argent, R.

2015-12-01

Abstract: Soil moisture is a key limiting resource for rain-fed cropping in Australian broad-acre cropping zones. Seasonal rainfall and temperature outlooks are standard operational services offered by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and are routinely used to support agricultural decisions. This presentation examines the performance of proposed soil water seasonal outlooks in the context of wheat cropping in south-eastern Australia (autumn planting, late spring harvest). We used weather ensembles simulated by the Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), as input to the Agricultural Production Simulator (APSIM) to construct ensemble soil water "outlooks" at twenty sites. Hindcasts were made over a 33 year period using the 33 POAMA ensemble members. The overall modelling flow involved: 1. Downscaling of the daily weather series (rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature, humidity, radiation) from the ~250km POAMA grid scale to a local weather station using quantile-quantile correction. This was based on a 33 year observation record extracted from the SILO data drill product. 2. Using APSIM to produce soil water ensembles from the downscaled weather ensembles. A warm up period of 5 years of observed weather was followed by a 9 month hindcast period based on each ensemble member. 3. The soil water ensembles were summarized by estimating the proportion of outlook ensembles in each climatological tercile, where the climatology was constructed using APSIM and observed weather from the 33 years of hindcasts at the relevant site. 4. The soil water outlooks were evaluated for different lead times and months using a "truth" run of APSIM based on observed weather. Outlooks generally have useful some forecast skill for lead times of up to two-three months, except late spring; in line with current useful lead times for rainfall outlooks. Better performance was found in summer and autumn when vegetation cover and water use is low.

Quantifying characteristic growth dynamics in a semiarid grassland ecosystem by predicting short-term NDVI phenology from daily rainfall: a simple 4 parameter coupled-reservoir model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Predicting impacts of the magnitude and seasonal timing of rainfall pulses in water-limited grassland ecosystems concerns ecologists, climate scientists, hydrologists, and a variety of stakeholders. This report describes a simple, effective procedure to emulate the seasonal response of grassland bio...

Tree-Ring Reconstruction of Wet Season Rainfall Totals in the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahle, D. W.; Lopez, L.; Granato-Souza, D.; Barbosa, A. C. M. C.; Torbenson, M.; Villalba, R.; Pereira, G. D. A.; Feng, S.; Schongart, J.; Cook, E. R.

2017-12-01

The Amazon Basin is a globally important center of deep atmospheric convection, energy balance, and biodiversity, but only a handful of weather stations in this vast Basin have recorded rainfall measurements for at least 50 years. The available rainfall and river level observations suggest that the hydrologic cycle in the Amazon may have become amplified in the last 40-years, with more extreme rainfall and streamflow seasonality, deeper droughts, and more severe flooding. These changes in the largest hydrological system on earth may be early evidence of the expected consequences of anthropogenic climate change and deforestation in the coming century. Placing these observed and simulated changes in the context of natural climate variability during the late Holocene is a significant challenge for high-resolution paleoclimatology. We have developed exactly dated and well-replicated annual tree-ring chronologies from two native Amazonian tree species (Cedrela sp and Centrolobium microchaete). These moisture sensitive chronologies have been used to compute two reconstructions of wet season rainfall totals, one in the southern Amazon based on Centrolobium and another in the eastern equatorial Amazon using Cedrela. Both reconstructions are over 200-years long and extend the available instrumental observations in each region by over 150-years. These reconstructions are well correlated with the same regional and large-scale climate dynamics that govern the inter-annual variability of the instrumental wet season rainfall totals. Increased multi-decadal variability is reconstructed after 1950 with the Centrolobium chronologies in the southern Amazon. The Cedrela reconstruction from the eastern Amazon exhibits changes in the spatial pattern of correlation with regional rainfall stations and the large-scale sea surface temperature field after 1990 that may be consistent with recent changes in the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in March over the western Atlantic and South American sector.

The association of weather and mortality in Bangladesh from 1983–2009

PubMed Central

Alam, Nurul; Begum, Dilruba; Streatfield, Peter Kim

2012-01-01

Introduction The association of weather and mortality have not been widely studied in subtropical monsoon regions, particularly in Bangladesh. This study aims to assess the association of weather and mortality (measured with temperature and rainfall), adjusting for time trend and seasonal patterns in Abhoynagar, Bangladesh. Material and methods A sample vital registration system (SVRS) was set up in 1982 to facilitate operational research in family planning and maternal and child health. SVRS provided data on death counts and population from 1983–2009. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department provided data on daily temperature and rainfall for the same period. Time series Poisson regression with cubic spline functions was used, allowing for over-dispersion, including lagged weather parameters, and adjusting for time trends and seasonal patterns. Analysis was carried out using R statistical software. Results Both weekly mean temperature and rainfall showed strong seasonal patterns. After adjusting for seasonal pattern and time trend, weekly mean temperatures (lag 0) below the 25th percentile and between the 25th and 75th percentiles were associated with increased mortality risk, particularly in females and adults aged 20–59 years by 2.3–2.4% for every 1°C decrease. Temperature above the 75th percentile did not increase the risk. Every 1 mm increase in rainfall up to 14 mm of weekly average rainfall over lag 0–4 weeks was associated with decreased mortality risks. Rainfall above 14 mm was associated with increased mortality risk. Conclusion The relationships between temperature, rainfall and mortality reveal the importance of understanding the current factors contributing to adaptation and acclimatization, and how these can be enhanced to reduce negative impacts from weather. PMID:23195512

Precipitation Regime Shift Enhanced the Rain Pulse Effect on Soil Respiration in a Semi-Arid Steppe

PubMed Central

Yan, Liming; Chen, Shiping; Xia, Jianyang; Luo, Yiqi

2014-01-01

The effect of resource pulses, such as rainfall events, on soil respiration plays an important role in controlling grassland carbon balance, but how shifts in long-term precipitation regime regulate rain pulse effect on soil respiration is still unclear. We first quantified the influence of rainfall event on soil respiration based on a two-year (2006 and 2009) continuously measured soil respiration data set in a temperate steppe in northern China. In 2006 and 2009, soil carbon release induced by rainfall events contributed about 44.5% (83.3 g C m−2) and 39.6% (61.7 g C m−2) to the growing-season total soil respiration, respectively. The pulse effect of rainfall event on soil respiration can be accurately predicted by a water status index (WSI), which is the product of rainfall event size and the ratio between antecedent soil temperature to moisture at the depth of 10 cm (r 2 = 0.92, P<0.001) through the growing season. It indicates the pulse effect can be enhanced by not only larger individual rainfall event, but also higher soil temperature/moisture ratio which is usually associated with longer dry spells. We then analyzed a long-term (1953–2009) precipitation record in the experimental area. We found both the extreme heavy rainfall events (>40 mm per event) and the long dry-spells (>5 days) during the growing seasons increased from 1953–2009. It suggests the shift in precipitation regime has increased the contribution of rain pulse effect to growing-season total soil respiration in this region. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating precipitation regime shift and its impacts on the rain pulse effect into the future predictions of grassland carbon cycle under climate change. PMID:25093573

Precipitation regime shift enhanced the rain pulse effect on soil respiration in a semi-arid steppe.

PubMed

Yan, Liming; Chen, Shiping; Xia, Jianyang; Luo, Yiqi

2014-01-01

The effect of resource pulses, such as rainfall events, on soil respiration plays an important role in controlling grassland carbon balance, but how shifts in long-term precipitation regime regulate rain pulse effect on soil respiration is still unclear. We first quantified the influence of rainfall event on soil respiration based on a two-year (2006 and 2009) continuously measured soil respiration data set in a temperate steppe in northern China. In 2006 and 2009, soil carbon release induced by rainfall events contributed about 44.5% (83.3 g C m(-2)) and 39.6% (61.7 g C m(-2)) to the growing-season total soil respiration, respectively. The pulse effect of rainfall event on soil respiration can be accurately predicted by a water status index (WSI), which is the product of rainfall event size and the ratio between antecedent soil temperature to moisture at the depth of 10 cm (r2 = 0.92, P<0.001) through the growing season. It indicates the pulse effect can be enhanced by not only larger individual rainfall event, but also higher soil temperature/moisture ratio which is usually associated with longer dry spells. We then analyzed a long-term (1953-2009) precipitation record in the experimental area. We found both the extreme heavy rainfall events (>40 mm per event) and the long dry-spells (>5 days) during the growing seasons increased from 1953-2009. It suggests the shift in precipitation regime has increased the contribution of rain pulse effect to growing-season total soil respiration in this region. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating precipitation regime shift and its impacts on the rain pulse effect into the future predictions of grassland carbon cycle under climate change.

Heavy rainfall in Mediterranean cyclones. Part I: contribution of deep convection and warm conveyor belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flaounas, Emmanouil; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Lagouvardos, Konstantinos; Gray, Suzanne L.; Rysman, Jean-François; Claud, Chantal

2018-04-01

In this study, we provide an insight to the role of deep convection (DC) and the warm conveyor belt (WCB) as leading processes to Mediterranean cyclones' heavy rainfall. To this end, we use reanalysis data, lighting and satellite observations to quantify the relative contribution of DC and the WCB to cyclone rainfall, as well as to analyse the spatial and temporal variability of these processes with respect to the cyclone centre and life cycle. Results for the period 2005-2015 show that the relationship between cyclone rainfall and intensity has high variability and demonstrate that even intense cyclones may produce low rainfall amounts. However, when considering rainfall averages for cyclone intensity bins, a linear relationship was found. We focus on the 500 most intense tracked cyclones (responsible for about 40-50% of the total 11-year Mediterranean rainfall) and distinguish between the ones producing high and low rainfall amounts. DC and the WCB are found to be the main cause of rainfall for the former (producing up to 70% of cyclone rainfall), while, for the latter, DC and the WCB play a secondary role (producing up to 50% of rainfall). Further analysis showed that rainfall due to DC tends to occur close to the cyclones' centre and to their eastern sides, while the WCBs tend to produce rainfall towards the northeast. In fact, about 30% of rainfall produced by DC overlaps with rainfall produced by WCBs but this represents only about 8% of rainfall produced by WCBs. This suggests that a considerable percentage of DC is associated with embedded convection in WCBs. Finally, DC was found to be able to produce higher rain rates than WCBs, exceeding 50 mm in 3-h accumulated rainfall compared to a maximum of the order of 40 mm for WCBs. Our results demonstrate in a climatological framework the relationship between cyclone intensity and processes that lead to heavy rainfall, one of the most prominent environmental risks in the Mediterranean. Therefore, we set perspectives for a deeper analysis of the favourable atmospheric conditions that yield high impact weather.

Impacts of the ENSO Modoki and other Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate-Drivers on African Rainfall

PubMed Central

Preethi, B.; Sabin, T. P.; Adedoyin, J. A.; Ashok, K.

2015-01-01

The study diagnoses the relative impacts of the four known tropical Indo-Pacific drivers, namely, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ENSO Modoki, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Indian Ocean Basin-wide mode (IOBM) on African seasonal rainfall variability. The canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki are in general associated with anomalous reduction (enhancement) of rainfall in southern (northern) hemispheric regions during March-May season. However, both the El Niño flavours anomalously reduce the northern hemispheric rainfall during June-September. Interestingly, during boreal spring and summer, in many regions, the Indian Ocean drivers have influences opposite to those from tropical Pacific drivers. On the other hand, during the October-December season, the canonical El Niño and/or positive IOD are associated with an anomalous enhancement of rainfall in the Eastern Africa, while the El Niño Modoki events are associated with an opposite impact. In addition to the Walker circulation changes, the Indo-Pacific drivers influence the African rainfall through modulating jet streams. During boreal summer, the El Niño Modoki and canonical El Niño (positive IOD) tend to weaken (strengthen) the tropical easterly jet, and result in strengthening (weakening) and southward shift of African easterly jet. This anomalously reduces (enhances) rainfall in the tropical north, including Sahelian Africa. PMID:26567458

Impacts of the ENSO Modoki and other Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate-Drivers on African Rainfall.

PubMed

Preethi, B; Sabin, T P; Adedoyin, J A; Ashok, K

2015-11-16

The study diagnoses the relative impacts of the four known tropical Indo-Pacific drivers, namely, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ENSO Modoki, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Indian Ocean Basin-wide mode (IOBM) on African seasonal rainfall variability. The canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki are in general associated with anomalous reduction (enhancement) of rainfall in southern (northern) hemispheric regions during March-May season. However, both the El Niño flavours anomalously reduce the northern hemispheric rainfall during June-September. Interestingly, during boreal spring and summer, in many regions, the Indian Ocean drivers have influences opposite to those from tropical Pacific drivers. On the other hand, during the October-December season, the canonical El Niño and/or positive IOD are associated with an anomalous enhancement of rainfall in the Eastern Africa, while the El Niño Modoki events are associated with an opposite impact. In addition to the Walker circulation changes, the Indo-Pacific drivers influence the African rainfall through modulating jet streams. During boreal summer, the El Niño Modoki and canonical El Niño (positive IOD) tend to weaken (strengthen) the tropical easterly jet, and result in strengthening (weakening) and southward shift of African easterly jet. This anomalously reduces (enhances) rainfall in the tropical north, including Sahelian Africa.

Temperature and rainfall interact to control carbon cycling in tropical forests.

PubMed

Taylor, Philip G; Cleveland, Cory C; Wieder, William R; Sullivan, Benjamin W; Doughty, Christopher E; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Townsend, Alan R

2017-06-01

Tropical forests dominate global terrestrial carbon (C) exchange, and recent droughts in the Amazon Basin have contributed to short-term declines in terrestrial carbon dioxide uptake and storage. However, the effects of longer-term climate variability on tropical forest carbon dynamics are still not well understood. We synthesised field data from more than 150 tropical forest sites to explore how climate regulates tropical forest aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and organic matter decomposition, and combined those data with two existing databases to explore climate - C relationships globally. While previous analyses have focused on the effects of either temperature or rainfall on ANPP, our results highlight the importance of interactions between temperature and rainfall on the C cycle. In cool forests (< 20 °C), high rainfall slowed rates of C cycling, but in warm tropical forests (> 20 °C) it consistently enhanced both ANPP and decomposition. At the global scale, our analysis showed an increase in ANPP with rainfall in relatively warm sites, inconsistent with declines in ANPP with rainfall reported previously. Overall, our results alter our understanding of climate - C cycle relationships, with high precipitation accelerating rates of C exchange with the atmosphere in the most productive biome on earth. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Assessment of soil water use by grassland by frequency domain reflectometry in the humid area of Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mestas Valero, R. M.; Báez Bernal, D.; García Pomar, M. I.; Paz González, A.

2009-04-01

Frequency domain reflectometry (FDR) is becoming increasingly used for indirect water content determination in soils. In Galica, located in NW Spain, the humid region of this country, annual precipitation exceeds evapotranspiration. However, the yearly distribution of rainfall is irregular, so that supplementary irrigation during the dry warm summer is required often. This study aims to evaluate soil water use by grasslands and soil water regime patterns during the warm season from soil moisture measured at successive depths using FDR. The study sity is located at the experimental field of the Centre for Agricultural Research (CIAM) in Mabegondo, latitude 43°14' N and longitude 08°15' W. Soil moisture was monitored at six experimental plots from July to October 2008 two times per week using a portable FDR sensor. Measurements were made from 10 to 160 cm depth at 10 cm intervals. Moreover one of the plots was equipped with a continuous recording FDR-EnviroSCAN probe. Crop potential evapotranspiration (ETc) was estimated according to the of FAO version of the Penman-Monteith equation and the meteorological information required to apply this method was provided by a station located in the place experimental field. Cumulative rainfall along the study period was 195 mm, which is above the long-term mean and cumulative potential evapotranspiration was 264.7 mm. Using the water balance method the total value of actual evapotranspiration was estimated at 205.2 mm. Analysis of soil moisture content profiles allowed a description of soil water regime and main soil water withdrawal patterns under grassland. In general, grassland roots extracted most soil water from the 0-40 cm depth. In contrast, moisture content at the bottom of the profile was close to saturation, even the driest weeks of the study period. Continuous monitoring of soil water content allowed a more detailed characterization of dry and wet periods during the study season. The study data set may be useful for assessing draught risks and supplementary irrigation needs.

Rainfall, ground-water flow, and seasonal movement at Minor Creek landslide, northwestern California: physical interpretation of empirical relations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iverson, R.M.; Major, J.J.

1987-01-01

We present data on rainfall, ground-water flow, and repetitive seasonal motion that occurred from 1982 to 1985 at Minor Creek landslide in northwestern Californa, and we interpret these data in the context of physically based theories. We find that landslide motion is closely regulated by the direction and magnitude of near-surface hydraulic gradients and by waves of pore pressure caused by intermittent rainfall. Hummocky topography that results from slope instability may cause ground-water flow that perpetuates instability. -from Authors