NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Lei; Li, Tim
2017-02-01
Most of CMIP5 models projected a weakened Walker circulation in tropical Pacific, but what causes such change is still an open question. By conducting idealized numerical simulations separating the effects of the spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming, extra land surface warming and differential SST warming, we demonstrate that the weakening of the Walker circulation is attributed to the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon and South America land effects. The effect of the uniform SST warming is through so-called "richest-get-richer" mechanism. In response to a uniform surface warming, the WNP monsoon is enhanced by competing moisture with other large-scale convective branches. The strengthened WNP monsoon further induces surface westerlies in the equatorial western-central Pacific, weakening the Walker circulation. The increase of the greenhouse gases leads to a larger land surface warming than ocean surface. As a result, a greater thermal contrast occurs between American Continent and equatorial Pacific. The so-induced zonal pressure gradient anomaly forces low-level westerly anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and weakens the Walker circulation. The differential SST warming also plays a role in driving low-level westerly anomalies over tropical Pacific. But such an effect involves a positive air-sea feedback that amplifies the weakening of both east-west SST gradient and Pacific trade winds.
Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.
Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping
2013-09-19
Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.
Regional seasonal warming anomalies and land-surface feedbacks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Coffel, E.; Horton, R. M.
2017-12-01
Significant seasonal variations in warming are projected in some regions, especially central Europe, the southeastern U.S., and central South America. Europe in particular may experience up to 2°C more warming during June, July, and August than in the annual mean, enhancing the risk of extreme summertime heat. Previous research has shown that heat waves in Europe and other regions are tied to seasonal soil moisture variations, and that in general land-surface feedbacks have a strong effect on seasonal temperature anomalies. In this study, we show that the seasonal anomalies in warming are also due in part to land-surface feedbacks. We find that in regions with amplified warming during the hot season, surface soil moisture levels generally decline and Bowen ratios increase as a result of a preferential partitioning of incoming energy into sensible vs. latent. The CMIP5 model suite shows significant variability in the strength of land-atmosphere coupling and in projections of future precipitation and soil moisture. Due to the dependence of seasonal warming on land-surface processes, these inter-model variations influence the projected summertime warming amplification and contribute to the uncertainty in projections of future extreme heat.
The 2014/15 Warm Anomaly in the Southern California Current - Physical and Biological Responses
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ralf, G.
2016-02-01
The 2014/15 Warm Anomaly (WarmA) off Southern California manifested itself in the summer of 2014 as an anomalously warm surface layer in the Southern Calif. Bight with low concentrations of Chl a. This layer intensified in spatial extent, covering the entire CalCOFI surface area by the winter of 2015 with temperature anomalies 3 StDev larger than long-term averages. Concentrations of nutrients, phytoplankton biomass and rates of primary production were extremely low during the WarmA. The evolution of the WarmA as well as the 2015/16 El Niño with time will be compared to the evolution of the weak and strong El Niño's observed over the last 60 years. These events provide unique insights in the controls of phytoplankton biomass and production in the southern California Current System. Preliminary analyses suggest that the response of the phytoplankton community to the WarmA was consistent with responses to similar forcing during the prior decade. This presentation is based on data collected during the quarterly CalCOFI cruises by the CalCOFI and the CCE-LTER groups.
Chae, Jinho; Choi, Hyun Woo; Lee, Woo Jin; Kim, Dongsung; Lee, Jae Hac
2008-07-01
Impingement of a large amount of gelatinous plankton, Salpa fusiformis on the seawater intake system-screens in a nuclear power plant at Uljin was firstly recorded on 18th June 2003. Whole amount of the clogged animals was estimated were presumptively at 295 tons and the shortage of cooling seawater supply by the animal clogging caused 38% of decrease in generation capability of the power plant. Zooplankton collection with a multiple towing net during the day and at night from 5 to 6 June 2003 included various gelatinous zooplanktons known to be warm water species such as salps and siphonophores. Comparatively larger species, Salpa fusiformis occupied 25.4% in individual density among the gelatinous plankton and showed surface distribution in the depth shallower than thermocline, performing little diel vertical migration. Temperature, salinity and satellite data also showed warm surface current predominated over the southern coastal region near the power plant in June. The results suggested that warm surface current occasionally extended into the neritic region may transfer S. fusiformis, to the waters off the power plant. The environmental factors and their relation to ecobiology of the large quantity of salpa population that are being sucked into the intake channel of the power plant are discussed.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hu, Xiaoming; Sejas, Sergio A.; Cai, Ming; Taylor, Patrick C.; Deng, Yi; Yang, Song
2018-05-01
The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but a muted warming since, referred to as the global warming hiatus in the literature. Decadal changes in deep ocean heat uptake are thought to primarily account for the rapid warming and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine the role of ocean heat uptake in establishing the fast warming and warming hiatus periods in the ERA-Interim through a decomposition of the global-mean surface energy budget. We find the increase of carbon dioxide alone yields a nearly steady increase of the downward longwave radiation at the surface from the 1980s to the present, but neither accounts for the fast warming nor warming hiatus periods. During the global warming hiatus period, the transfer of latent heat energy from the ocean to atmosphere increases and the total downward radiative energy flux to the surface decreases due to a reduction of solar absorption caused primarily by an increase of clouds. The reduction of radiative energy into the ocean and the surface latent heat flux increase cause the ocean heat uptake to decrease and thus contribute to the slowdown of the global-mean surface warming. Our analysis also finds that in addition to a reduction of deep ocean heat uptake, the fast warming period is also driven by enhanced solar absorption due predominantly to a decrease of clouds and by enhanced longwave absorption mainly attributed to the air temperature feedback.
Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus
Liu, Wei; Xie, Shang -Ping; Lu, Jian
2016-03-30
Ocean heat uptake is observed to penetrate deep during the recent hiatus1,2,3 of global warming in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean. This has been suggested to indicate that the two regions are the driver of the surface warming hiatus4. We show that the deep heat penetration in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean is not unique to the hiatus but common to the past four decades including the 1970s-90s epoch of accelerated surface warming. Our analyses of a large ensemble simulation5 confirm the deep heat penetration in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean in ensemble members with or without surface warming hiatusmore » in the early 21th century. During the past four decades, the global ocean heat content (OHC) of upper 1500m is dominated by a warming trend, and the depth of anthropogenic heat penetration merely reflects the depth of the mean meridional overturning circulation in the basin. Furthermore, the heat penetration depth is not a valid basis to infer the hiatus mechanism.« less
Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Liu, Wei; Xie, Shang -Ping; Lu, Jian
Ocean heat uptake is observed to penetrate deep during the recent hiatus1,2,3 of global warming in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean. This has been suggested to indicate that the two regions are the driver of the surface warming hiatus4. We show that the deep heat penetration in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean is not unique to the hiatus but common to the past four decades including the 1970s-90s epoch of accelerated surface warming. Our analyses of a large ensemble simulation5 confirm the deep heat penetration in the Atlantic and Southern Ocean in ensemble members with or without surface warming hiatusmore » in the early 21th century. During the past four decades, the global ocean heat content (OHC) of upper 1500m is dominated by a warming trend, and the depth of anthropogenic heat penetration merely reflects the depth of the mean meridional overturning circulation in the basin. Furthermore, the heat penetration depth is not a valid basis to infer the hiatus mechanism.« less
The Origin of the Tsushima Warm Current in a High Resolution Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Park, Y.; Yeh, S.; Hwang, J.
2008-12-01
Using a high resolution global ocean circulation model results, the present study investigates the origin of the Tsushima Warm Current and related East China Sea Circulation. The simulated Tsushima Warm Current is weaker than the observations by about 30 %, but the persistence of the Taiwan-Tsushima Current System shows that the Taiwan Warm Current is the main source of the Tsushima Warm Current. The high resolution model results allow us to distinguish the Kuroshio intrusion north of Taiwan and west of Kyushu from the Taiwan-Tsushima Current System. West of Kyushu the onshore intrusion of the Kuroshio is strong between September and February, and north of Taiwan between June and November. The annual mean strength of the intrusion is 0.32 Sv west of Kyushu, and 0.22 Sv north of Taiwan. Since the simulated Tsushima Warm Current is weaker than the observation while that of the Taiwan Current is comparable to the observations, the strength of the intrusion is weaker than the reality. In addition, a linear relation is found between the transport of the Tsushima Warm Current and the sea level difference between the Korea/Tsushima Strait and the Tsugaru/Soya Straits, and we can conclude that the sea level difference is the main driving force of the current.
Surface Heat Budgets and Sea Surface Temperature in the Pacific Warm Pool During TOGA COARE
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chou, Shu-Hsien; Zhao, Wenzhong; Chou, Ming-Dah
1998-01-01
The daily mean heat and momentum fluxes at the surface derived from the SSM/I and Japan's GMS radiance measurements are used to study the temporal and spatial variability of the surface energy budgets and their relationship to the sea surface temperature during the COARE intensive observing period (IOP). For the three time legs observed during the IOP, the retrieved surface fluxes compare reasonably well with those from the IMET buoy, RV Moana Wave, and RV Wecoma. The characteristics of surface heat and momentum fluxes are very different between the southern and northern warm pool. In the southern warm pool, the net surface heat flux is dominated by solar radiation which is, in turn, modulated by the two Madden-Julian oscillations. The surface winds are generally weak, leading to a shallow ocean mixed layer. The solar radiation penetrating through the bottom of the mixed layer is significant, and the change in the sea surface temperature during the IOP does not follow the net surface heat flux. In the northern warm pool, the northeasterly trade wind is strong and undergoes strong seasonal variation. The variation of the net surface heat flux is dominated by evaporation. The two westerly wind bursts associated with the Madden-Julian oscillations seem to have little effect on the net surface heat flux. The ocean mixed layer is deep, and the solar radiation penetrating through the bottom of the mixed layer is small. As opposed to the southern warm pool, the trend of the sea surface temperature in the northern warm pool during the IOP is in agreement with the variation of the net heat flux at the surface.
The phenology of Arctic Ocean surface warming.
Steele, Michael; Dickinson, Suzanne
2016-09-01
In this work, we explore the seasonal relationships (i.e., the phenology) between sea ice retreat, sea surface temperature (SST), and atmospheric heat fluxes in the Pacific Sector of the Arctic Ocean, using satellite and reanalysis data. We find that where ice retreats early in most years, maximum summertime SSTs are usually warmer, relative to areas with later retreat. For any particular year, we find that anomalously early ice retreat generally leads to anomalously warm SSTs. However, this relationship is weak in the Chukchi Sea, where ocean advection plays a large role. It is also weak where retreat in a particular year happens earlier than usual, but still relatively late in the season, primarily because atmospheric heat fluxes are weak at that time. This result helps to explain the very different ocean warming responses found in two recent years with extreme ice retreat, 2007 and 2012. We also find that the timing of ice retreat impacts the date of maximum SST, owing to a change in the ocean surface buoyancy and momentum forcing that occurs in early August that we term the Late Summer Transition (LST). After the LST, enhanced mixing of the upper ocean leads to cooling of the ocean surface even while atmospheric heat fluxes are still weakly downward. Our results indicate that in the near-term, earlier ice retreat is likely to cause enhanced ocean surface warming in much of the Arctic Ocean, although not where ice retreat still occurs late in the season.
How are warm and cool years in the California Current related to ENSO?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fiedler, Paul C.; Mantua, Nathan J.
2017-07-01
The tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual variability that impacts climate throughout the Pacific. The California Current System (CCS) in the northeast Pacific warms and cools from year to year, with or without a corresponding tropical El Niño or La Niña event. We update the record of warm and cool events in the CCS for 1950-2016 and use composite sea level pressure (SLP) and surface wind anomalies to explore the atmospheric forcing mechanisms associated with tropical and CCS warm and cold events. CCS warm events are associated with negative SLP anomalies in the NE Pacific—a strong and southeastward displacement of the wintertime Aleutian Low, a weak North Pacific High, and a regional pattern of cyclonic wind anomalies that are poleward over the CCS. We use a first-order autoregressive model to show that regional North Pacific forcing is predominant in SST variations throughout most of the CCS, while remote tropical forcing is more important in the far southern portion of the CCS. In our analysis, cool events in the CCS tend to be more closely associated with tropical La Niña than are warm events in the CCS with tropical El Niño; the forcing of co-occurring cool events is analogous, but nearly opposite, to that of warm events.
The 2014-2015 Warming Anomaly in the Southern California Current System: Glider Observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zaba, K. D.; Rudnick, D. L.
2016-02-01
During 2014-2015, basin-wide patterns of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies affected surface waters throughout the North Pacific Ocean. We present regional physical and biological effects of the warming, as observed by our autonomous underwater gliders in the southern California Current System (SCCS). Established in 2006, the California Glider Network provides sustained subsurface observations for monitoring the coastal effects of large-scale climate variability. Along repeat sections that extend to 350-500 km in offshore distance and 500 m in depth, Spray gliders have continuously occupied CalCOFI lines 66.7, 80, and 90 for nearly nine years. Following a sawtooth trajectory, the gliders complete each dive in approximately 3 hours and over 3 km. Measured variables include pressure, temperature, salinity, chlorophyll fluorescence, and velocity. For each of the three lines, a comprehensive climatology has been constructed from the multiyear timeseries. The ongoing surface-intensified warming anomaly, which began locally in early 2014 and persists through present, is unprecedented in the glider climatology. Reaching up to 5°C, positive temperature anomalies have been generally confined to the upper 50 m and persistent for over 20 months. The timing of the warming was in phase along each glider line but out of phase with equatorial SST anomalies, suggesting a decoupling of tropical and mid-latitude dynamics. Concurrent physical oceanographic anomalies included a depressed thermocline and high stratification. An induced biological response was apparent in the deepening of the subsurface chlorophyll fluorescence maximum. Ancillary atmospheric data from the NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) model indicate that a combination of surface forcing anomalies, namely high downward heat flux and weak wind stress magnitude, caused the unusual warm, downwelling conditions. With a strong El Niño event in the forecast for winter 2015-2016, our sustained glider network will
The Summertime Warming Trends in Surface Water Temperature of the Great Lakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sugiyama, N.; Kravtsov, S.; Roebber, P.
2014-12-01
Over the past 30 years, the Laurentian Great Lakes have exhibited summertime warming trends in surface water temperature which were greater than those in surface air temperature of the surrounding land, by as much as an order of magnitude over some of the regions. For the years 1995-2012, Lake Superior exhibited the most dramatic warming trend in July-mean temperature, of 0.27±0.15 deg. C yr-1, based on the NOAA's GLSEA satellite observations. Shallower lakes, such as Lake Erie, exhibited smaller warming trends. In addition, within each lake, the warming was also the greatest in the regions of larger water depth; for example, some regions of Lake Superior deeper than 200m exhibited surface-water July-mean warming trends which exceeded 0.3 deg. C yr-1. We used a three-column lake model based on the one developed by Hostetler and Barnstein (1990) coupled with a two-layer atmospheric energy balance model to explore the physics behind these warming trends. We found that, as suggested by Austin and Colman (2007), the ice-albedo feedback plays an important role in amplifying the overlake warming trends. Our particular emphasis was on the question of whether the ice-albedo feedback alone is enough to account for lacustrine amplification of surface warming observed over the Great Lakes region. We found that the answer to this question depends on a number of model parameters, including the diffusion and light attenuation coefficients, which greatly affect the model's skill in reproducing the observed ice coverage of the deep lakes.
Regional warming of hot extremes accelerated by surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Donat, M.; Pitman, A.; Seneviratne, S. I.
2017-12-01
Strong regional differences exist in how hot temperature extremes increase under global warming. Using an ensemble of coupled climate models, we examine the regional warming rates of hot extremes relative to annual average warming rates in the same regions. We identify hotspots of accelerated warming of model-simulated hot extremes in Europe, North America, South America and Southeast China. These hotspots indicate where the warm tail of a distribution of temperatures increases faster than the average and are robust across most CMIP5 models. Exploring the conditions on the specific day the hot extreme occurs demonstrates the hotspots are explained by changes in the surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils. Furthermore, in these hotspot regions we find a relationship between the temperature - heat flux correlation under current climate conditions and the magnitude of future projected changes in hot extremes, pointing to a potential emergent constraint for simulations of future hot extremes. However, the model-simulated accelerated warming of hot extremes appears inconsistent with observations of the past 60 years, except over Europe. The simulated acceleration of hot extremes may therefore be unreliable, a result that necessitates a re-evaluation of how climate models resolve the relevant terrestrial processes.
Intraseasonal sea surface warming in the western Indian Ocean by oceanic equatorial Rossby waves
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rydbeck, Adam V.; Jensen, Tommy G.; Nyadjro, Ebenezer S.
2017-05-01
A novel process is identified whereby equatorial Rossby (ER) waves maintain warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies against cooling by processes related to atmospheric convection in the western Indian Ocean. As downwelling ER waves enter the western Indian Ocean, SST anomalies of +0.15°C develop near 60°E. These SST anomalies are hypothesized to stimulate convective onset of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The upper ocean warming that manifests in response to downwelling ER waves is examined in a mixed layer heat budget using observational and reanalysis products, respectively. In the heat budget, horizontal advection is the leading contributor to warming, in part due to an equatorial westward jet of 80 cm s-1 associated with downwelling ER waves. When anomalous currents associated with ER waves are removed in the budget, the warm intraseasonal temperature anomaly in the western Indian Ocean is eliminated in observations and reduced by 55% in reanalysis.
The warming trend of ground surface temperature in the Choshui Alluvial Fan, western central Taiwan
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, W.; Chang, M.; Chen, J.; Lu, W.; Huang, C. C.; Wang, Y.
2013-12-01
Heat storage in subsurface of the continents forms a fundamental component of the global energy budget and plays an important role in the climate system. Several researches revealed that subsurface temperatures were being increased to 1.8-2.8°C higher in mean ground surface temperature (GST) for some Asian cities where are experiencing a rapid growth of population. Taiwan is a subtropic-tropic island with densely populated in the coastal plains surrounding its mountains. We investigate the subsurface temperature distribution and the borehole temperature-depth profiles by using groundwater monitoring wells in years 2000 and 2010. Our data show that the western central Taiwan plain also has been experiencing a warming trend but with a higher temperatures approximately 3-4 °C of GST during the last 250 yrs. We suggest that the warming were mostly due to the land change to urbanization and agriculture. The current GSTs from our wells are approximately 25.51-26.79 °C which are higher than the current surface air temperature (SAT) of 23.65 °C. Data from Taiwan's weather stations also show 1-1.5 °C higher for the GST than the SAT at neighboring stations. The earth surface heat balance data indicate that GST higher than SAT is reasonable. More researches are needed to evaluate the interaction of GST and SAT, and how a warming GST's impact to the SAT and the climate system of the Earth.
Current Warm-Up Practices and Contemporary Issues Faced by Elite Swimming Coaches.
McGowan, Courtney J; Pyne, David B; Raglin, John S; Thompson, Kevin G; Rattray, Ben
2016-12-01
McGowan, CJ, Pyne, DB, Raglin, JS, Thompson, KG, and Rattray, B. Current warm-up practices and contemporary issues faced by elite swimming coaches. J Strength Cond Res 30(12): 3471-3480, 2016-A better understanding of current swimming warm-up strategies is needed to improve their effectiveness. The purpose of this study was to describe current precompetition warm-up practices and identify contemporary issues faced by elite swimming coaches during competition. Forty-six state-international level swimming coaches provided information through a questionnaire on their prescription of volume, intensity, and recovery within their pool and dryland-based competition warm-ups, and challenges faced during the final stages of event preparation. Coaches identified four key objectives of the precompetition warm-up: physiological (elevate body temperature and increase muscle activation), kinesthetic (tactile preparation, increase "feel" of the water), tactical (race-pace rehearsal), and mental (improve focus, reduce anxiety). Pool warm-up volume ranged from ∼1300 to 2100 m, beginning with 400-1000 m of continuous, low-intensity (∼50-70% of perceived maximal exertion) swimming, followed by 200-600 m of stroke drills and 1-2 sets (100-400 m in length) of increasing intensity (∼60-90%) swimming, concluding with 3-4 race or near race-pace efforts (25-100 m; ∼90-100%) and 100-400 m easy swimming. Dryland-based warm-up exercises, involving stretch cords and skipping, were also commonly prescribed. Coaches preferred swimmers complete their warm-up 20-30 minutes before race start. Lengthy marshalling periods (15-20+ minutes) and the time required to don racing suits (>10 minutes) were identified as complicating issues. Coaches believed that the pool warm-up affords athletes the opportunity to gain a tactile feel for the water and surrounding pool environment. The combination of dryland-based activation exercises followed by pool-based warm-up routines seems to be the preferred
Precipitation response to the current ENSO variability in a warming world
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bonfils, C.; Santer, B. D.; Phillips, T. J.; Marvel, K.; Leung, L.
2013-12-01
The major triggers of past and recent droughts include large modes of variability, such as ENSO, as well as specific and persistent patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs; Hoerling and Kumar, 2003, Shin et al. 2010, Schubert et al. 2009). However, alternative drought initiators are also anticipated in response to increasing greenhouse gases, potentially changing the relative contribution of ocean variability as drought initiator. They include the intensification of the current zonal wet-dry patterns (the thermodynamic mechanism, Held and Soden, 2006), a latitudinal redistribution of global precipitation (the dynamical mechanism, Seager et al. 2007, Seidel et al. 2008, Scheff and Frierson 2008) and a reduction of local soil moisture and precipitation recycling (the land-atmosphere argument). Our ultimate goal is to investigate whether the relative contribution of those mechanisms change over time in response to global warming. In this study, we first perform an EOF analysis of the 1900-1999 time series of observed global SST field and identify a simple ENSO-like (ENSOL) mode of SST variability. We show that this mode is well spatially and temporally correlated with observed worldwide regional precipitation and drought variability. We then develop concise metrics to examine the fidelity with which the CMIP5 coupled global climate models (CGCMs) capture this particular ENSO-like mode in the current climate, and their ability to replicate the observed teleconnections with precipitation. Based on the CMIP5 model projections of future climate change, we finally analyze the potential temporal variations in ENSOL to be anticipated under further global warming, as well as their associated teleconnections with precipitation (pattern, amplitude, and total response). Overall, our approach allows us to determine what will be the effect of the current ENSO-like variability (i.e., as measured with instrumental observations) on precipitation in a warming world. This
Unabated global surface temperature warming: evaluating the evidence
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Karl, T. R.; Arguez, A.
2015-12-01
New insights related to time-dependent bias corrections in global surface temperatures have led to higher rates of warming over the past few decades than previously reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014). Record high global temperatures in the past few years have also contributed to larger trends. The combination of these factors and new analyses of the rate of temperature change show unabated global warming since at least the mid-Twentieth Century. New time-dependent bias corrections account for: (1) differences in temperatures measured from ships and drifting buoys; (2) improved corrections to ship measured temperatures; and (3) the larger rates of warming in polar regions (particularly the Arctic). Since 1951, the period over which IPCC (2014) attributes over half of the observed global warming to human causes, it is shown that there has been a remarkably robust and sustained warming, punctuated with inter-annual and decadal variability. This finding is confirmed through simple trend analysis and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Trend analysis however, especially for decadal trends, is sensitive to selection bias of beginning and ending dates. EMD has no selection bias. Additionally, it can highlight both short- and long-term processes affecting the global temperature times series since it addresses both non-linear and non-stationary processes. For the new NOAA global temperature data set, our analyses do not support the notion of a hiatus or slowing of long-term global warming. However, sub-decadal periods of little (or no warming) and rapid warming can also be found, clearly showing the impact of inter-annual and decadal variability that previously has been attributed to both natural and human-induced non-greenhouse forcings.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, Sukyoung; Gong, Tingting; Feldstein, Steven B.; Screen, James A.; Simmonds, Ian
2017-10-01
The Arctic has been warming faster than elsewhere, especially during the cold season. According to the leading theory, ice-albedo feedback warms the Arctic Ocean during the summer, and the heat gained by the ocean is released during the winter, causing the cold-season warming. Screen and Simmonds (2010; SS10) concluded that the theory is correct by comparing trend patterns in surface air temperature (SAT), surface turbulence heat flux (HF), and net surface infrared radiation (IR). However, in this comparison, downward IR is more appropriate to use. By analyzing the same data used in SS10 using the surface energy budget, it is shown here that over most of the Arctic the skin temperature trend, which closely resembles the SAT trend, is largely accounted for by the downward IR, not the HF, trend.
Warm Anomaly Effects on California Current Phytoplankton
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gomez Ocampo, E.; Gaxiola-Castro, G.; Beier, E.; Durazo, R.
2016-02-01
Positive temperature anomalies were reported in the NE Pacific Ocean since the boreal winter of 2013-2014. Previous studies showed that these anomalies were caused by lower than normal rates of heat loss from the ocean to the atmosphere and by relatively weak cold water advection to the upper ocean. Anomalous Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Absolute Dynamic Topography (ADT), and Chlorophyll (CHL) obtained from monthly remote sensing data were registered in the California Current region during August 2014. Anomalies appeared around the coastal and oceanic zones, particularly in the onshore zone between Monterey Bay, California and Magdalena Bay, Baja California. High positive SST anomalous values up to 4ºC above the long-term mean, 20 cm in ADT, and less of 4.5 mg m-3 of CHL were registered. Changes of 20 cm in ADT above the average are equivalent to 50 m thermocline deepening considering typical values of stratification for the area, which in turn influenced the availability of nutrients and light for phytoplankton growth in the euphotic zone. To examine the influence of the warm anomaly on phytoplankton production, we fitted with Generalized Additive Models the relationship between monthly primary production satellite data and ADT. Primary production inferred from the model, showed during August 2014 high negative anomalies (up to 0.5 gC m-2 d1) in the coastal zone. The first empirical orthogonal function of ADT and PP revealed that the highest ADT anomalies and the lowest primary production occurred off the Baja California Peninsula, between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas. Preliminary conclusions showed that warm anomaly affected negatively to phytoplankton organisms during August 2014, being this evident by low biomass and negative primary production anomalies as result of pycnocline deepens.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zaba, Katherine D.; Rudnick, Daniel L.
2016-02-01
Large-scale patterns of positive temperature anomalies persisted throughout the surface waters of the North Pacific Ocean during 2014-2015. In the Southern California Current System, measurements by our sustained network of underwater gliders reveal the coastal effects of the recent warming. Regional upper ocean temperature anomalies were greatest since the initiation of the glider network in 2006. Additional observed physical anomalies included a depressed thermocline, high stratification, and freshening; induced biological consequences included changes in the vertical distribution of chlorophyll fluorescence. Contemporaneous surface heat flux and wind strength perturbations suggest that local anomalous atmospheric forcing caused the unusual oceanic conditions.
Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe
O'Reilly, Catherine; Sharma, Sapna; Gray, Derek; Hampton, Stephanie; Read, Jordan S.; Rowley, Rex J.; Schneider, Philipp; Lenters, John D.; McIntyre, Peter B.; Kraemer, Benjamin M.; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Straile, Dietmar; Dong, Bo; Adrian, Rita; Allan, Mathew G.; Anneville, Orlane; Arvola, Lauri; Austin, Jay; Bailey, John L.; Baron, Jill S.; Brookes, Justin D; de Eyto, Elvira; Dokulil, Martin T.; Hamilton, David P.; Havens, Karl; Hetherington, Amy L.; Higgins, Scott N.; Hook, Simon; Izmest'eva, Lyubov R.; Jöhnk, Klaus D.; Kangur, Külli; Kasprzak, Peter; Kumagai, Michio; Kuusisto, Esko; Leshkevich, George; Livingstone, David M.; MacIntyre, Sally; May, Linda; Melack, John M.; Mueller-Navara, Doerthe C.; Naumenko, Mikhail; Noges, Peeter; Noges, Tiina; North, Ryan P.; Plisnier, Pierre-Denis; Rigosi, Anna; Rimmer, Alon; Rogora, Michela; Rudstam, Lars G.; Rusak, James A.; Salmaso, Nico; Samal, Nihar R.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Schladow, Geoffrey; Schmid, Martin; Schmidt, Silke R.; Silow, Eugene A.; Soylu, M. Evren; Teubner, Katrin; Verburg, Piet; Voutilainen, Ari; Watkinson, Andrew; Williamson, Craig E.; Zhang, Guoqing
2015-01-01
In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite-derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade−1) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors—from seasonally ice-covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade−1) to ice-free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade−1). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes.
Ocean Heat Uptake Slows 21st Century Surface Warming Driven by Extratropical Cloud Feedbacks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Frey, W.; Maroon, E.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Kay, J. E.
2017-12-01
Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the warming in response to instantaneously doubled CO2, has long been used to compare climate models. In many models, ECS is well correlated with warming produced by transient forcing experiments. Modifications to cloud phase at high latitudes in a state-of-the-art climate model, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), produce a large increase in ECS (1.5 K) via extratropical cloud feedbacks. However, only a small surface warming increase occurs in a realistic 21st century simulation including a full-depth dynamic ocean and the "business as usual" RCP8.5 emissions scenario. In fact, the increase in surface warming is only barely above the internal variability-generated range in the CESM Large Ensemble. The small change in 21st century warming is attributed to subpolar ocean heat uptake in both hemispheres. In the Southern Ocean, the mean-state circulation takes up heat while in the North Atlantic a slowdown in circulation acts as a feedback to slow surface warming. These results show the importance of subpolar ocean heat uptake in controlling the pace of warming and demonstrate that ECS cannot be used to reliably infer transient warming when it is driven by extratropical feedbacks.
Evolution of surface sensible heat over the Tibetan Plateau under the recent global warming hiatus
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhu, Lihua; Huang, Gang; Fan, Guangzhou; Qu, Xia; Zhao, Guijie; Hua, Wei
2017-10-01
Based on regular surface meteorological observations and NCEP/DOE reanalysis data, this study investigates the evolution of surface sensible heat (SH) over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau (CE-TP) under the recent global warming hiatus. The results reveal that the SH over the CE-TP presents a recovery since the slowdown of the global warming. The restored surface wind speed together with increased difference in ground-air temperature contribute to the recovery in SH. During the global warming hiatus, the persistent weakening wind speed is alleviated due to the variation of the meridional temperature gradient. Meanwhile, the ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature show a significant increasing trend in that period caused by the increased total cloud amount, especially at night. At nighttime, the increased total cloud cover reduces the surface effective radiation via a strengthening of atmospheric counter radiation and subsequently brings about a clear upward trend in ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature. Cloud-radiation feedback plays a significant role in the evolution of the surface temperature and even SH during the global warming hiatus. Consequently, besides the surface wind speed, the difference in ground-air temperature becomes another significant factor for the variation in SH since the slowdown of global warming, particularly at night.
Park, Hyosun; Yoon, Haesang
2007-12-01
The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of intravenous fluid warming and skin surface warming on peri-operative body temperature and acid base balance of abdominal surgical patients under general anesthesia. Data collection was performed from January 4th, to May 31, 2004. The intravenous fluid warming(IFW) group (30 elderly patients) was warmed through an IV line by an Animec set to 37 degrees C. The skin surface warming (SSW) group (30 elderly patients) was warmed by a circulating-water blanket set to 38 degrees C under the back and a 60W heating lamp 40 cm above the chest. The warming continued from induction of general anesthesia to two hours after completion of surgery. Collected data was analyzed using Repeated Measures ANOVA, and Bonferroni methods. SSW was more effective than IFW in preventing hypothermia(p= .043), preventing a decrease of HCO(3)(-)(p= .000) and preventing base excess (p= .000) respectively. However, there was no difference in pH between the SSW and IFW (p= .401) groups. We conclude that skin surface warming is more effective in preventing hypothermia, and HCO(3)(-) and base excess during general anesthesia, and returning to normal body temperature after surgery than intravenous fluid warming; however, skin surface warming wasn't able to sustain a normal body temperature in elderly patients undergoing abdominal surgery under general anesthesia.
Warm ocean surface led to ice margin retreat in central-eastern Baffin Bay during the Younger Dryas
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Oksman, Mimmi; Weckström, Kaarina; Miettinen, Arto; Juggins, Stephen; Divine, Dmitry; Jackson, Rebecca; Korsgaard, Niels J.; Telford, Richard; Kucera, Michal
2017-04-01
The Greenland ice sheet stability is linked to fast-flowing ice streams that are influenced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at their front. One of the largest ice streams in West Greenland is the Jakobshavn Isbræ, which has been shown to have collapsed at ca. 12.2 kyr BP in the middle of the Younger Dryas (YD) cold period (12.9-11.7 kyr BP). The cause for this collapse is still unknown yet hypotheses, such as warm Atlantic water inflow, have been put forward to explain it. Here we present the first diatom-based high-resolution reconstruction of sea surface conditions in the central-eastern Baffin Bay between 14.0 and 10.2 kyr BP. The sea surface temperatures reveal warmer conditions beginning at ca. 13.4 kyr BP and leading to intensive calving and iceberg discharge from Jakobshavn Isbræ visible as increased sedimentation rates and deposition of coarse-grained material in our sediment stratigraphy. The warm YD ocean surface conditions in Baffin Bay are out of phase with the δ18O record from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) and other SST records from northern North-Atlantic. We show that the ocean has had significant interactions with the Greenland ice sheet in the past and emphasize its importance under the current warming of the North Atlantic.
Characteristics of the cold-water belt formed off Soya Warm Current
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ishizu, Miho; Kitade, Yujiro; Matsuyama, Masaji
2008-12-01
We examined the data obtained by acoustic Doppler current profiler, conductivity-temperature-depth profiler, and expendable bathythermograph observations, which were collected in the summers of 2000, 2001, and 2002, to clarify the characteristics of the cold-water belt (CWB), i.e., lower-temperature water than the surrounding water extending from the southwest coast of Sakhalin along the offshore side of Soya Warm Current (SWC) and to confirm one of the formation mechanisms of the CWB as suggested by our previous study, i.e., the upwelling due to the convergence of bottom Ekman transport off the SWC region. The CWB was observed at about 30 km off the coast, having a thickness of 14 m and a minimum temperature of 12°C at the sea surface. The CWB does not have the specific water mass, but is constituted of three representative water types off the northeast coast of Hokkaido in summer, i.e., SWC water, Fresh Surface Okhotsk Sea Water, and Okhotsk Sea Intermediate Water. In a comparison of the horizontal distributions of current and temperature, the CWB region is found to be advected to the southeast at an average of 40 ± 29% of the maximum current velocity of the SWC. The pumping speed due to the convergence of the bottom Ekman transport is estimated as (1.5-3.0) × 10-4 m s-1. We examined the mixing ratio of the CWB, and the results implied that the water mass of the CWB is advected southeastward and mixes with a water mass upwelling in a different region off SWC.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sejas, S.; Cai, M.
2012-12-01
Surfing warming due to CO2 doubling is a robust feature of coupled general circulation models (GCM), as noted in the IPCC AR4 assessment report. In this study, the contributions of different climate feedbacks to the magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonality of the surface warming is examined using data from NCAR's CCSM4. In particular, a focus is placed on polar regions to see which feedbacks play a role in polar amplification and its seasonal pattern. A new climate feedback analysis method is used to isolate the surface warming or cooling contributions of both radiative and non-radiative (dynamical) climate feedbacks to the total (actual) surface temperature change given by the CCSM4. These contributions (or partial surface temperature changes) are additive and their total is approximately equal to the actual surface temperature change. What is found is that the effects of CO2 doubling alone warms the surface throughout with a maximum in polar regions, which indicates the CO2 forcing alone has a degree of polar warming amplification. Water vapor feedback is a positive feedback throughout but is most responsible for the surface warming found in the tropics. Polar warming amplification is found to be strongest away from summer (especially in NH), which is primarily caused by a positive feedback due to cloud feedbacks but with the surface temperature change due to the CO2 forcing alone and the ocean dynamics and storage feedback also playing an important role. Contrary to popular belief, surface albedo feedback (SAF) does not account for much of the polar amplification. SAF tries to amplify polar warming, but in summer. No major polar amplification is seen in summer for the actual surface temperature, so SAF is not the feedback responsible for polar amplification. This is actually a consequence of the ocean dynamics and storage feedback, which negates the effects of SAF to a large degree.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Koike, M.; Asano, N.; Nakamura, H.; Sakai, S.; Nagao, T. M.; Nakajima, T. Y.
2016-10-01
In our previous aircraft observations, the possible influence of high sea surface temperature (SST) along the Kuroshio Current on aerosol-cloud interactions over the western North Pacific was revealed. The cloud droplet number concentration (Nc) was found to increase with decreasing near-surface static stability (NSS), which was evaluated locally as the difference between the SST and surface air temperature (SAT). To explore the spatial and temporal extent to which this warm SST influence can be operative, the present study analyzed Nc values estimated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite measurements. The comparison of the local Nc values between the high and low SST - SAT days revealed a marked increase in Nc (up to a factor of 1.8) along the Kuroshio Current in the southern East China Sea, where particularly high SST - SAT values (up to 8 K) were observed in winter under monsoonal cold air outflows from the Asian Continent. This cold airflow destabilizes the atmospheric boundary layer, which leads to enhanced updraft velocities within the well-developed mixed layer and thus greater Nc. The monsoonal northwesterlies also bring a large amount of anthropogenic aerosols from the Asian continent that increase Nc in the first place. These results suggest that the same modulations of cloud microphysics can occur over other warm western boundary currents, including the Gulf Stream, under polluted cool continental airflows. Possibilities of influencing the cloud liquid water path are also discussed.
Mechanism for Surface Warming in the Equatorial Pacific during 1994-95
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rienecker, Michele M.; Borovikov, Anna; Schopf, Paul S.
1999-01-01
Mechanisms controlling the variation in sea surface temperature warm event in the equatorial Pacific were investigated through ocean model simulations. In addition, the mechanisms of the climatological SST cycle were investigated. The dominant mechanisms governing the seasonal cycle of SST vary significantly across the basin. In the western Pacific the annual cycle of SST is primarily in response to external heat flux. In the central basin the magnitude of zonal advection is comparable to that of the external heat flux. In the eastern basin the role of zonal advection is reduced and the vertical mixing is more important. In the easternmost equatorial Pacific the vertical entrainment contribution is as large as that of vertical diffusion. The model estimate of the vertical mixing contribution to the mixed layer heat budget compared well with estimates obtained by analysis of observations using the same diagnostic vertical mixing scheme. During 1994- 1995 the largest positive SST anomaly was observed in the mid-basin and was related to reduced latent heat flux due to weak surface winds. In the western basin the initial warming was related to enhanced external heating and reduced cooling effects of both vertical mixing and horizontal advection associated with weaker than usual wind stress. In the eastern Pacific where winds were not significantly anomalous throughout 1994-1995, only a moderate warm surface anomaly was detected. This is in contrast to strong El Nino events where the SST anomaly is largest in the eastern basin and, as shown by previous studies, the anomaly is due to zonal advection rather than anomalous surface heat flux. The end of the warm event was marked by cooling in July 1995 everywhere across the equatorial Pacific.
Beck, David A.; Ryan, Roslyn; Veley, Ronald J.; Harper, Donald P.; Tanko, Daron J.
2006-01-01
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Southern Nevada Water Authority and the Nevada Division of Water Resources, operates and maintains a surface-water monitoring network of 6 continuous-record stream-flow gaging stations and 11 partial-record stations in the Warm Springs area near Moapa, Nevada. Permanent land-surface bench marks were installed within the Warm Springs area by the Las Vegas Valley Water District, the Southern Nevada Water Authority, and the U.S. Geological Survey to determine water-surface elevations at all network monitoring sites. Vertical datum elevation and horizontal coordinates were established for all bench marks through a series of Differential Global Positioning System surveys. Optical theodolite surveys were made to transfer Differential Global Positioning System vertical datums to reference marks installed at each monitoring site. The surveys were completed in June 2004 and water-surface elevations were measured on August 17, 2004. Water-surface elevations ranged from 1,810.33 feet above North American Vertical Datum of 1988 at a stream-gaging station in the Pederson Springs area to 1,706.31 feet at a station on the Muddy River near Moapa. Discharge and water-quality data were compiled for the Warm Springs area and include data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey, Nevada Division of Water Resources, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Moapa Valley Water District, Desert Research Institute, and Converse Consultants. Historical and current hydrologic data-collection networks primarily are related to changes in land- and water-use activities in the Warm Springs area. These changes include declines in ranching and agricultural use, the exportation of water to other areas of Moapa Valley, and the creation of a national wildlife refuge. Water-surface elevations, discharge, and water-quality data compiled for the Warm Springs area will help identify (1) effects of changing vegetation within the former agricultural lands, (2) effects
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dyez, K. A.; Hoenisch, B.; deMenocal, P. B.
2017-12-01
Although plankton drift with ocean currents, their presence and relative abundance varies across latitudes and environmental seawater conditions (e.g. temperature, pH, salinity). While earlier studies have focused on temperature as the primary factor for determining the regional species composition of planktic foraminiferal communities, evidence has recently been presented that foraminiferal shell thickness varies with ocean pH, and it remains unclear whether ongoing ocean acidification will cause ecological shifts within this plankton group. The transition from the last glacial maximum (LGM; 19,000-23,000 years B.P.) to the late Holocene (0-5,000 years B.P.) was characterized by both warming and acidification of the surface ocean, and thus provides an opportunity to study ecosystem shifts in response to these environmental changes. Here we provide new δ11B, Mg/Ca, and δ18O measurements from a suite of global sediment cores spanning this time range. We use these geochemical data to reconstruct ocean temperature, pH and salinity and pair the new data with previously published analyses of planktic foraminifera assemblages to study the respective effects of ocean warming and acidification on the foraminiferal habitat. At most open-ocean sample locations, our proxies indicate warming and acidification similar to previously published estimates, but in some marginal seas and coastal locations pH changes little between over the glacial termination. At face value, these observations suggest that warming is generally more important for ecosystem changes than acidification, at least over the slow rates of warming and ocean acidification in this time period. While geochemical data collection is being completed, we aim to include these data in an ecological model of foraminiferal habitat preferences.
Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year.
Steig, Eric J; Schneider, David P; Rutherford, Scott D; Mann, Michael E; Comiso, Josefino C; Shindell, Drew T
2009-01-22
Assessments of Antarctic temperature change have emphasized the contrast between strong warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and slight cooling of the Antarctic continental interior in recent decades. This pattern of temperature change has been attributed to the increased strength of the circumpolar westerlies, largely in response to changes in stratospheric ozone. This picture, however, is substantially incomplete owing to the sparseness and short duration of the observations. Here we show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. West Antarctic warming exceeds 0.1 degrees C per decade over the past 50 years, and is strongest in winter and spring. Although this is partly offset by autumn cooling in East Antarctica, the continent-wide average near-surface temperature trend is positive. Simulations using a general circulation model reproduce the essential features of the spatial pattern and the long-term trend, and we suggest that neither can be attributed directly to increases in the strength of the westerlies. Instead, regional changes in atmospheric circulation and associated changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice are required to explain the enhanced warming in West Antarctica.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Majorowicz, Jacek A.; Skinner, Walter R.
1997-10-01
Analysis and modelling of temperature anomalies from 25 selected deep wells in Alberta show that the differences between GST (ground surface temperature) warming for the northern Boreal Forest ecozone and the combined Prairie Grassland ecozone and Aspen Parkland transition region to the south occur during the latter half of this century. This corresponds with recent changes in surface albedo resulting from permanent land development in the northern areas and also to increases in natural forest fires in the past 20 years. Differences between GST and SAT (surface air temperature) warming are much higher in the Boreal Forest ecozone than in the Prairie Grassland ecozone and Aspen Parkland transition region. Various hypotheses which could account for the existing differences between the GST and SAT warming in the different ecozones of Alberta, and western Canada in general, are tested. Analysis of existing data on soil temperature, hydrological piezometric surfaces, snowfall and moisture patterns, and land clearing and forest fires, indicate that large areas of Alberta, characterised by anomalous GST warming, have experienced widespread changes to the surface landscape in this century. It is postulated that this has resulted in a lower surface albedo with a subsequent increase in the absorption of solar energy. Heat flow modelling shows that, after climatic SAT warming, permanent clearing of the land is the most effective and likely cause of the observed changes in the GST warming. The greater GST warming in the Boreal Forest ecozone in the latter half of this century is related to landscape change due to land development and increasing forest fire activity. It appears to account for a portion of the observed SAT warming in this region through a positive feedback loop with the overlying air. The anthropogenic effect on regional climatic warming through 20th century land clearing and landscape alteration requires further study. In future, more accurate quantification of
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ebuchi, N.; Fukamachi, Y.; Ohshima, K. I.; Wakatsuchi, M.
2007-12-01
The Soya Warm Current (SWC) is a coastal boundary current, which flows along the coast of Hokkaido in the Sea of Okhotsk. The SWC flows into the Sea of Okhotsk from the Sea of Japan through the Soya/La Perouse Strait, which is located between Hokkaido, Japan, and Sakhalin, Russia. It supplies warm, saline water in the Sea of Japan to the Sea of Okhotsk and largely affects the ocean circulation and water mass formation in the Sea of Okhotsk, and local climate, environment and fishery in the region. However, the SWC has never been continuously monitored due to the difficulties involved in field observations related to, for example, severe weather conditions in the winter, political issues at the border strait, and conflicts with fishing activities in the strait. Detailed features of the SWC and its variations have not yet been clarified. In order to monitor variations in the SWC, three HF ocean radar stations were installed around the strait. The radar covers a range of approximately 70 km from the coast. It is shown that the HF radars clearly capture seasonal and subinertial variations of the SWC. The velocity of the SWC reaches its maximum, approximately 1 m/s, in summer, and weakens in winter. The velocity core is located 20 to 30 km from the coast, and its width is approximately 50 km. The surface transport by the Soya Warm Current shows a significant correlation with the sea level difference along the strait, as derived from coastal tide gauge records. The cross-current sea level difference, which is estimated from the sea level anomalies observed by the Jason-1 altimeter and a coastal tide gauge, also exhibits variation in concert with the surface transport and along-current sea level difference.
Global warming effects: future feasibility of current cooling equipment for animal houses
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Valiño, V.; Perdigones, A.; García, J. L.; de La Plaza, S.
2009-04-01
Interest in global warming effects on the agricultural systems is currently high, especially in areas which are likely to be more affected by this temperature rising, i.e. the Mediterranean area (IPCC, 2008). According to this report, the model projections of surface warming predict a temperature increase between 0.5°C to 1.5°C in the European area by the period 2020-2029. The aim of the present work was to assess the future consequences of the global warming effect on the feasibility of the cooling equipment in animal houses. Several equipment combinations were compared by means of modelling the inside climate in fattening pig houses, including forced ventilation and cooling pad. The modelling was carried out for six different European locations: Spain, Greece, Italy, The Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom, for the today conditions; secondly, the global warming effect in the inside climate was considered in a second set of simulations, and a mean temperature rising of 2°C was taken into account. Climate data. The six European locations were: Madrid (Spain); Aliartos (Greece); Bedford (The United Kingdom); Schipol (The Netherlands); Milan (Italy); and Stuttgart (Germany). From every location, the available climate data were monthly mean temperature (To; °C); monthly mean relative humidity (HRo, %) and monthly mean solar irradiation on horizontal surface (So; W m-2). From these monthly values, hourly means were calculated resulting in 24 data for a typical day, each month. Climate model. In this study, cooling strategies resulted from the combination of natural ventilation, mechanical ventilation and cooling pads. The climate model was developed taking into account the following energy fluxes: solar radiation, ventilation (Seginer, 2002), animal heat losses (Blanes and Pedersen, 2005), and loss of energy due to the cooling pads (Seginer, 2002). Results for the present work, show a comparative scene of the inside climate by using different cooling
Bracketing mid-pliocene sea surface temperature: maximum and minimum possible warming
Dowsett, Harry
2004-01-01
Estimates of sea surface temperature (SST) from ocean cores reveal a warm phase of the Pliocene between about 3.3 and 3.0 Mega-annums (Ma). Pollen records from land based cores and sections, although not as well dated, also show evidence for a warmer climate at about the same time. Increased greenhouse forcing and altered ocean heat transport is the leading candidates for the underlying cause of Pliocene global warmth. However, despite being a period of global warmth, there exists considerable variability within this interval. Two new SST reconstructions have been created to provide a climatological error bar for warm peak phases of the Pliocene. These data represent the maximum and minimum possible warming recorded within the 3.3 to 3.0 Ma interval.
Role of land-surface changes in arctic summer warming
Chapin, F. S.; Sturm, M.; Serreze, Mark C.; McFadden, J.P.; Key, J.R.; Lloyd, A.H.; McGuire, A.D.; Rupp, T.S.; Lynch, A.H.; Schimel, Joshua P.; Beringer, J.; Chapman, W.L.; Epstein, H.E.; Euskirchen, E.S.; Hinzman, L.D.; Jia, G.; Ping, C.-L.; Tape, K.D.; Thompson, C.D.C.; Walker, D.A.; Welker, J.M.
2005-01-01
A major challenge in predicting Earth's future climate state is to understand feedbacks that alter greenhouse-gas forcing. Here we synthesize field data from arctic Alaska, showing that terrestrial changes in summer albedo contribute substantially to recent high-latitude warming trends. Pronounced terrestrial summer warming in arctic Alaska correlates with a lengthening of the snow-free season that has increased atmospheric heating locally by about 3 watts per square meter per decade (similar in magnitude to the regional heating expected over multiple decades from a doubling of atmospheric CO2). The continuation of current trends in shrub and tree expansion could further amplify this atmospheric heating by two to seven times.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Inoue, M.; Shirotani, Y.; Furusawa, Y.; Fujimoto, K.; Kofuji, H.; Yoshida, K.; Nagao, S.; Yamamoto, M.; Hamajima, Y.; Honda, N.; Morimoto, A.; Takikawa, T.; Shiomoto, A.; Isoda, Y.; Minakawa, M.
2017-07-01
We investigated lateral profiles of 228Ra (half-life; 5.75 years) activity and 228Ra/226Ra (1600 years) activity ratio using 241 surface water samples collected in/around the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea (ECS) during June-October of 2009-2014. In the ECS, the 228Ra/226Ra ratio in the surface waters exhibited markedly wide variation (<0.05-3.5) in June, predominantly reflecting the mixing between the 228Ra-rich continental shelf water and the 228Ra-depleted Kuroshio Current water. In July, the surface waters of the central Sea of Japan (135-138°E) became separated into three currents: the Offshore Branch of the Tsushima Warm Current (OBTWC) (228Ra/226Ra =0.7-1.2) at 39-41°N, the Coastal Branch of the TWC (CBTWC) ( 0.7) on the southern side, and sub-Arctic Current ( 0.7) on the northern side. From the central to northeastern Sea of Japan, the 228Ra/226Ra ratio at the surface (0.8-1.0) was within a range between that of the CBTWC and OBTWC. The fraction of continental shelf water in the CBTWC, OBTWC, and in their combined current was estimated to be 11-16%, 8%, and 10-11%, respectively.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pepin, N. C.
2013-12-01
Arctic amplification, whereby enhanced warming is evident at high latitudes, is well accepted amongst the scientific community. Increased warming at high elevations is more controversial and is often given the more vague term 'elevational dependency'. The way in which different approaches (mountain surface data, radiosondes, satellite data and models) often yield different results is discussed, along with the differences between these approaches. Analyses of surface data differ in the stations chosen for comparison, the time period, elevational range, and methods of trend identification. An analysis of global datasets using over a thousand stations (GHCN, CRU) and defining change by the most common method of calculating the linear gradient of a best fit line (linear regression) shows no simple relationship between warming rate and elevation. There are however feedback mechanisms in the mountain environment (e.g. cryospheric change, water vapor and treelines) which, although they may enhance warming at certain elevations, are fairly poorly understood. Warming rates are also shown to be influenced by factors in the mountain environment other than elevation, including topography (aspect, slope, topographic exposure) as well as mean annual temperature, but the relative influences of such controls have yet to be disentangled from those that show a more simple elevationally-dependent signal. Mountain summits and exposed ridge sites are shown to show least variability in warming rates, rising up above a sea of noise. Radiosondes and satellite data are further removed from changes on the ground (surface temperatures) and studies using such data tend to be rather divorced from the mountain environment and need calibration/comparison with surface datasets. Reanalyses such as NCEP/NCAR and ERA, although having good spatial coverage, tend to suffer from the same problems. Following a discussion of differences between all these approaches, a plan to develop an integrated global
Sea Surface Warming and Increased Aridity at Mid-latitudes during Eocene Thermal Maximum 2
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Harper, D. T.; Zeebe, R. E.; Hoenisch, B.; Schrader, C.; Lourens, L. J.; Zachos, J. C.
2017-12-01
Early Eocene hyperthermals, i.e. abrupt global warming events characterized by the release of isotopically light carbon to the atmosphere, can provide insight into the sensitivity of the Earth's climate system and hydrologic cycle to carbon emissions. Indeed, the largest Eocene hyperthermal, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), has provided one case study of extreme and abrupt global warming, with a mass of carbon release roughly equivalent to total modern fossil fuel reserves and a release rate 1/10 that of modern. Global sea surface temperatures (SST) increased by 5-8°C during the PETM and extensive evidence from marine and terrestrial records indicates significant shifts in the hydrologic cycle consistent with an increase in poleward moisture transport in response to surface warming. The second largest Eocene hyperthermal, Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM-2) provides an additional calibration point for determining the sensitivity of climate and the hydrologic cycle to massive carbon release. Marine carbon isotope excursions (CIE) and warming at the ETM-2 were roughly half as large as at the PETM, but reliable evidence for shifts in temperature and the hydrologic cycle are sparse for the ETM-2. Here, we utilize coupled planktic foraminiferal δ18O and Mg/Ca to determine ΔSST and ΔSSS (changes in sea surface temperature and salinity) for ETM-2 at ODP Sites 1209 (28°N paleolatitude in the Pacific) and 1265 (42°S paleolatitude in the S. Atlantic), accounting for potential pH influence on the two proxies by using LOSCAR climate-carbon cycle simulated ΔpH. Our results indicate a warming of 2-4°C at both mid-latitude sites and an increase in SSS of 1-3ppt, consistent with simulations of early Paleogene hydroclimate that suggest an increase in low- to mid-latitude aridity due to an intensification of moisture transport to high-latitudes. Furthermore, the magnitude of the CIE and warming for ETM-2 scales with the CIE and warming for the PETM, suggesting that
Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.
Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho
2015-05-12
Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.
Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming
Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho
2015-01-01
Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical–ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean−atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes. PMID:25902494
Prolonged California aridity linked to climate warming and Pacific sea surface temperature.
MacDonald, Glen M; Moser, Katrina A; Bloom, Amy M; Potito, Aaron P; Porinchu, David F; Holmquist, James R; Hughes, Julia; Kremenetski, Konstantine V
2016-09-15
California has experienced a dry 21(st) century capped by severe drought from 2012 through 2015 prompting questions about hydroclimatic sensitivity to anthropogenic climate change and implications for the future. We address these questions using a Holocene lake sediment record of hydrologic change from the Sierra Nevada Mountains coupled with marine sediment records from the Pacific. These data provide evidence of a persistent relationship between past climate warming, Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) shifts and centennial to millennial episodes of California aridity. The link is most evident during the thermal-maximum of the mid-Holocene (~8 to 3 ka; ka = 1,000 calendar years before present) and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (~1 ka to 0.7 ka). In both cases, climate warming corresponded with cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific despite differences in the factors producing increased radiative forcing. The magnitude of prolonged eastern Pacific cooling was modest, similar to observed La Niña excursions of 1(o) to 2 °C. Given differences with current radiative forcing it remains uncertain if the Pacific will react in a similar manner in the 21st century, but should it follow apparent past behavior more intense and prolonged aridity in California would result.
A numerical study of the South China Sea Warm Current during winter monsoon relaxation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Cong; Ding, Yang; Bao, Xianwen; Bi, Congcong; Li, Ruixiang; Zhang, Cunjie; Shen, Biao; Wan, Kai
2018-03-01
Using a Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model, we investigated the dynamic mechanism of the South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC) in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) during winter monsoon relaxation. The model reproduces the mean surface circulation of the NSCS during winter, while model-simulated subtidal currents generally capture its current pattern. The model shows that the current over the continental shelf is generally southwestward, under a strong winter monsoon condition, but a northeastward counter-wind current usually develops between 50-and 100-m isobaths, when the monsoon relaxes. Model experiments, focusing on the wind relaxation process, show that sea level is elevated in the northwestern South China Sea (SCS), related to the persistent northeasterly monsoon. Following wind relaxation, a high sea level band builds up along the mid-shelf, and a northeastward current develops, having an obvious vertical barotropic structure. Momentum balance analysis indicates that an along-shelf pressure gradient provides the initial driving force for the SCSWC during the first few days following wind relaxation. The SCSWC subsequently reaches a steady quasi-geostrophic balance in the cross-shelf direction, mainly linked to sea level adjustment over the shelf. Lagrangian particle tracking experiments show that both the southwestward coastal current and slope current contribute to the northeastward movement of the SCSWC during winter monsoon relaxation.
Warm tropical ocean surface and global anoxia during the mid-Cretaceous period.
Wilson, P A; Norris, R D
2001-07-26
The middle of the Cretaceous period (about 120 to 80 Myr ago) was a time of unusually warm polar temperatures, repeated reef-drowning in the tropics and a series of oceanic anoxic events (OAEs) that promoted both the widespread deposition of organic-carbon-rich marine sediments and high biological turnover. The cause of the warm temperatures is unproven but widely attributed to high levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. In contrast, there is no consensus on the climatic causes and effects of the OAEs, with both high biological productivity and ocean 'stagnation' being invoked as the cause of ocean anoxia. Here we show, using stable isotope records from multiple species of well-preserved foraminifera, that the thermal structure of surface waters in the western tropical Atlantic Ocean underwent pronounced variability about 100 Myr ago, with maximum sea surface temperatures 3-5 degrees C warmer than today. This variability culminated in a collapse of upper-ocean stratification during OAE-1d (the 'Breistroffer' event), a globally significant period of organic-carbon burial that we show to have fundamental, stratigraphically valuable, geochemical similarities to the main OAEs of the Mesozoic era. Our records are consistent with greenhouse forcing being responsible for the warm temperatures, but are inconsistent both with explanations for OAEs based on ocean stagnation, and with the traditional view (reviewed in ref. 12) that past warm periods were more stable than today's climate.
CLIMATE CHANGE. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus.
Karl, Thomas R; Arguez, Anthony; Huang, Boyin; Lawrimore, Jay H; McMahon, James R; Menne, Matthew J; Peterson, Thomas C; Vose, Russell S; Zhang, Huai-Min
2015-06-26
Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming "hiatus." Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a "slowdown" in the increase of global surface temperature. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale
Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.
2017-01-01
Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693
Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.
2017-02-01
Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.
Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.
Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing withmore » event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.« less
Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.
Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N
2017-02-07
Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.
Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale
Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; ...
2017-01-23
Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing withmore » event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.« less
North Atlantic Surface Winds Examined as the Source of Warm Advection into Europe in Winter
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Otterman, J.; Angell, J. K.; Ardizzone, J.; Atlas, Robert; Schubert, S.; Starr, D.; Wu, M.-L.
2002-01-01
When from the southwest, North Atlantic ocean surface winds are known to bring warm and moist airmasses into central Europe in winter. By tracing backward trajectories from western Europe, we establish that these airmasses originate in the southwestern North Atlantic, in the very warm regions of the Gulf Stream. Over the eastern North Atlantic, Lt the gateway to Europe, the ocean-surface winds changed directions in the second half of the XXth century, those from the northwest and from the southeast becoming so infrequent, that the direction from the southwest became even more dominant. For the January-to-March period, the strength of south-westerlies in this region, as well as in the source region, shows in the years 1948-1995 a significant increase, above 0.2 m/sec/ decade. Based on the sensitivity of the surface temperature in Europe, slightly more than 1 C for a 1m/sec increase in the southwesterly wind, found in the previous studies, the trend in the warm advection accounts for a large part of the warming in Europe established for this period in several reports. However, for the most recent years, 1996-2001, the positive trend in the southwesterly advection appears to be is broken, which is consistent with unseasonally cold events reported in Europe in those winters. This study had, some bearing on evaluating the respective roles of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Greenhouse Gas Global warming, GGG, in the strong winter warming observed for about half a century over the northern-latitude continents. Changes in the ocean-surface temperatures induced by GGG may have produced the dominant southwesterly direction of the North Atlantic winds. However, this implies a monotonically (apart from inherent interannual variability) increasing advection, and if the break in the trend which we observe after 1995 persists, this mechanism is counter-indicated. The 1948-1995 trend in the south-westerlies could then be considered to a large degree attributable to the
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shin, Yechul; Kang, Sarah M.; Watanabe, Masahiro
2017-12-01
Previous studies suggest large uncertainties in the stationary wave response under global warming. Here, we investigate how the Arctic climate responds to changes in the latitudinal position of stationary waves, and to high-latitudes surface warming that mimics the effect of Arctic sea ice loss under global warming. To generate stationary waves in an atmospheric model coupled to slab ocean, a series of experiments is performed where the thermal forcing with a zonal wavenumber-2 (with zero zonal-mean) is prescribed at the surface at different latitude bands in the Northern Hemisphere. When the stationary waves are generated in the subtropics, the cooling response dominates over the warming response in the lower troposphere due to cloud radiative effects. Then, the low-level baroclinicity is reduced in the subtropics, which gives rise to a poleward shift of the eddy driven jet, thereby inducing substantial cooling in the northern high latitudes. As the stationary waves are progressively generated at higher latitudes, the zonal-mean climate state gradually becomes more similar to the integration with no stationary waves. These differences in the mean climate affect the Arctic climate response to high-latitudes surface warming. Additional surface heating over the Arctic is imposed to the reference climates in which the stationary waves are located at different latitude bands. When the stationary waves are positioned at lower latitudes, the eddy driven jet is located at higher latitude, closer to the prescribed Arctic heating. As baroclinicity is more effectively perturbed, the jet shifts more equatorward that accompanies a larger reduction in the poleward eddy transport of heat and momentum. A stronger eddy-induced descending motion creates greater warming over the Arctic. Our study calls for a more accurate simulation of the present-day stationary wave pattern to enhance the predictability of the Arctic warming response in a changing climate.
Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming
Berg, Alexis; Sheffield, Justin; Milly, Paul C.D.
2017-01-01
Land aridity has been projected to increase with global warming. Such projections are mostly based on off-line aridity and drought metrics applied to climate model outputs but also are supported by climate-model projections of decreased surface soil moisture. Here we comprehensively analyze soil moisture projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, including surface, total, and layer-by-layer soil moisture. We identify a robust vertical gradient of projected mean soil moisture changes, with more negative changes near the surface. Some regions of the northern middle to high latitudes exhibit negative annual surface changes but positive total changes. We interpret this behavior in the context of seasonal changes in the surface water budget. This vertical pattern implies that the extensive drying predicted by off-line drought metrics, while consistent with the projected decline in surface soil moisture, will tend to overestimate (negatively) changes in total soil water availability.
Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E
2015-08-11
Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, Taekyun; Choo, Sung-Ho; Moon, Jae-Hong; Chang, Pil-Hun
2017-12-01
Unusual sea surface temperature (SST) warming occurred over the Yellow Sea (YS) in December 2004. To identify the causes of the abnormal SST warming, we conducted an analysis on atmospheric circulation anomalies induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) and their impacts on upper ocean characteristics using multiple datasets. With the analysis of various datasets, we explored a new aspect of the relationship between TC activity and SST. The results show that there is a significant link between TC activity over the Northwest Pacific (NWP) and SST in the YS. The integrated effect of consecutive TCs activity induces a large-scale atmospheric cyclonic circulation anomaly over the NWP and consequently anomalous easterly winds over the YS and East China Sea. The mechanism of the unusually warm SST in the YS can be explained by considering TCs acting as an important source of Ekman heat transport that results in substantial intrusion of relatively warm surface water into the YS interior. Furthermore, TC-related circulation anomalies contribute to the retention of the resulting warm SST anomalies in the entire YS.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Hileman, Bette
1989-01-01
States the foundations of the theory of global warming. Describes methodologies used to measure the changes in the atmosphere. Discusses steps currently being taken in the United States and the world to slow the warming trend. Recognizes many sources for the warming and the possible effects on the earth. (MVL)
Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records.
Hausfather, Zeke; Cowtan, Kevin; Clarke, David C; Jacobs, Peter; Richardson, Mark; Rohde, Robert
2017-01-01
Sea surface temperature (SST) records are subject to potential biases due to changing instrumentation and measurement practices. Significant differences exist between commonly used composite SST reconstructions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), the Hadley Centre SST data set (HadSST3), and the Japanese Meteorological Agency's Centennial Observation-Based Estimates of SSTs (COBE-SST) from 2003 to the present. The update from ERSST version 3b to version 4 resulted in an increase in the operational SST trend estimate during the last 19 years from 0.07° to 0.12°C per decade, indicating a higher rate of warming in recent years. We show that ERSST version 4 trends generally agree with largely independent, near-global, and instrumentally homogeneous SST measurements from floating buoys, Argo floats, and radiometer-based satellite measurements that have been developed and deployed during the past two decades. We find a large cooling bias in ERSST version 3b and smaller but significant cooling biases in HadSST3 and COBE-SST from 2003 to the present, with respect to most series examined. These results suggest that reported rates of SST warming in recent years have been underestimated in these three data sets.
Will surface winds weaken in response to global warming?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ma, Jian; Foltz, Gregory R.; Soden, Brian J.; Huang, Gang; He, Jie; Dong, Changming
2016-12-01
The surface Walker and tropical tropospheric circulations have been inferred to slow down from historical observations and model projections, yet analysis of large-scale surface wind predictions is lacking. Satellite measurements of surface wind speed indicate strengthening trends averaged over the global and tropical oceans that are supported by precipitation and evaporation changes. Here we use corrected anemometer-based observations to show that the surface wind speed has not decreased in the averaged tropical oceans, despite its reduction in the region of the Walker circulation. Historical simulations and future projections for climate change also suggest a near-zero wind speed trend averaged in space, regardless of the Walker cell change. In the tropics, the sea surface temperature pattern effect acts against the large-scale circulation slow-down. For higher latitudes, the surface winds shift poleward along with the eddy-driven mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a very small contribution to the global change in surface wind speed. Despite its importance for surface wind speed change, the influence of the SST pattern change on global-mean rainfall is insignificant since it cannot substantially alter the global energy balance. As a result, the precipitation response to global warming remains ‘muted’ relative to atmospheric moisture increase. Our results therefore show consistency between projections and observations of surface winds and precipitation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Clare, Michael; Peter, Talling; James, Hunt
2014-05-01
A geologically short-lived (~170kyr) episode of global warming occurred at ~55Ma, termed the Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum (IETM). Global temperatures rose by up to 8oC over only ~10kyr and a massive perturbation of the global carbon cycle occurred; creating a negative carbon isotopic (~-4% δ13C) excursion in sedimentary records. This interval has relevance to study of future climate change and its influence on geohazards including submarine landslides and turbidity currents. We analyse the recurrence frequency of turbidity currents, potentially initiated from large-volume slope failures. The study focuses on two sedimentary intervals that straddle the IETM and we discuss implications for turbidity current triggering. We present the results of statistical analyses (regression, generalised linear model, and proportional hazards model) for extensive turbidite records from an outcrop at Zumaia in NE Spain (N=285; 54.0 to 56.5 Ma) and based on ODP site 1068 on the Iberian Margin (N=1571; 48.2 to 67.6 Ma). The sedimentary sequences provide clear differentiation between hemipelagic and turbiditic mud with only negligible evidence of erosion. We infer dates for turbidites by converting hemipelagic bed thicknesses to time using interval-averaged accumulation rates. Multi-proxy dating techniques provide good age constraint. The background trend for the Zumaia record shows a near-exponential distribution of turbidite recurrence intervals, while the Iberian Margin shows a log-normal response. This is interpreted to be related to regional time-independence (exponential) and the effects of additive processes (log-normal). We discuss how a log-normal response may actually be generated over geological timescales from multiple shorter periods of random turbidite recurrence. The IETM interval shows a dramatic departure from both these background trends, however. This is marked by prolonged hiatuses (0.1 and 0.6 Myr duration) in turbidity current activity in contrast to the
Sea surface height evidence for long-term warming effects of tropical cyclones on the ocean
Mei, Wei; Primeau, François; McWilliams, James C.; Pasquero, Claudia
2013-01-01
Tropical cyclones have been hypothesized to influence climate by pumping heat into the ocean, but a direct measure of this warming effect is still lacking. We quantified cyclone-induced ocean warming by directly monitoring the thermal expansion of water in the wake of cyclones, using satellite-based sea surface height data that provide a unique way of tracking the changes in ocean heat content on seasonal and longer timescales. We find that the long-term effect of cyclones is to warm the ocean at a rate of 0.32 ± 0.15 PW between 1993 and 2009, i.e., ∼23 times more efficiently per unit area than the background equatorial warming, making cyclones potentially important modulators of the climate by affecting heat transport in the ocean–atmosphere system. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the rate of warming increases with cyclone intensity. This, together with a predicted shift in the distribution of cyclones toward higher intensities as climate warms, suggests the ocean will get even warmer, possibly leading to a positive feedback. PMID:23922393
Sea surface height evidence for long-term warming effects of tropical cyclones on the ocean.
Mei, Wei; Primeau, François; McWilliams, James C; Pasquero, Claudia
2013-09-17
Tropical cyclones have been hypothesized to influence climate by pumping heat into the ocean, but a direct measure of this warming effect is still lacking. We quantified cyclone-induced ocean warming by directly monitoring the thermal expansion of water in the wake of cyclones, using satellite-based sea surface height data that provide a unique way of tracking the changes in ocean heat content on seasonal and longer timescales. We find that the long-term effect of cyclones is to warm the ocean at a rate of 0.32 ± 0.15 PW between 1993 and 2009, i.e., ∼23 times more efficiently per unit area than the background equatorial warming, making cyclones potentially important modulators of the climate by affecting heat transport in the ocean-atmosphere system. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the rate of warming increases with cyclone intensity. This, together with a predicted shift in the distribution of cyclones toward higher intensities as climate warms, suggests the ocean will get even warmer, possibly leading to a positive feedback.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kang, H.; Seo, J.; Kim, M.; Jung, J. Y.; Lee, Y. K.
2017-12-01
Arctic tundra ecosystems are of great importance because they store a large amount of carbon as un-decomposed organic matter. Global climate change is expected to affect enzyme activities and heterotrophic respiration in Arctic soils, which may accelerate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission through positive biological feedbacks. Unlike laboratory-based incubation experiments, field measurements often show different warming effects on decomposition of organic carbon and releases of GHGs. In the present study, we conducted a field-based warming experiment in Cambridge Bay, Canada (69°07'48″N, 105°03'36″W) by employing passive chambers during growing seasons over 6 years. A suite of enzyme activities (ß-glucosidase, cellobiohydrolase, N-acetylglucosaminidase, leucine aminopeptidase and phenol oxidase), microbial community structure (NGS), microbial abundances (gene copy numbers of bacteria and fungi), and soil chemical properties have been monitored in two depths (0-5 cm and 5-10 cm) of tundra soils, which were exposed to four different treatments (`control', `warming-only', `water-addition only', and both `warming and water-addition'). Phenol oxidase activity increased substantially, and bacterial community structure and abundance changed in the early stage (after 1 year's warming manipulation), but these changes disappeared afterwards. Most hydrolases were enhanced in surface soils by `water-addition only' over the period. However, the long-term effects of warming appeared in sub-surface soils where both `warming only' and `warming and water addition' increased hydrolase activities. Overall results of this study indicate that the warming effects on enzyme activities in surface soils are only short-term (phenol oxidase) or masked by water-limitation (hydrolases). However, hydrolases activities in sub-surface soils are more strongly enhanced than surface soils by warming, probably due to the lack of water limitation. Meanwhile, negative correlations between hydrolase
Evaluating Arctic warming mechanisms in CMIP5 models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Franzke, Christian L. E.; Lee, Sukyoung; Feldstein, Steven B.
2017-05-01
Arctic warming is one of the most striking signals of global warming. The Arctic is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth and constitutes, thus, a good test bed to evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce the physics and dynamics involved in Arctic warming. Different physical and dynamical mechanisms have been proposed to explain Arctic amplification. These mechanisms include the surface albedo feedback and poleward sensible and latent heat transport processes. During the winter season when Arctic amplification is most pronounced, the first mechanism relies on an enhancement in upward surface heat flux, while the second mechanism does not. In these mechanisms, it has been proposed that downward infrared radiation (IR) plays a role to a varying degree. Here, we show that the current generation of CMIP5 climate models all reproduce Arctic warming and there are high pattern correlations—typically greater than 0.9—between the surface air temperature (SAT) trend and the downward IR trend. However, we find that there are two groups of CMIP5 models: one with small pattern correlations between the Arctic SAT trend and the surface vertical heat flux trend (Group 1), and the other with large correlations (Group 2) between the same two variables. The Group 1 models exhibit higher pattern correlations between Arctic SAT and 500 hPa geopotential height trends, than do the Group 2 models. These findings suggest that Arctic warming in Group 1 models is more closely related to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation, whereas in Group 2, the albedo feedback effect plays a more important role. Interestingly, while Group 1 models have a warm or weak bias in their Arctic SAT, Group 2 models show large cold biases. This stark difference in model bias leads us to hypothesize that for a given model, the dominant Arctic warming mechanism and trend may be dependent on the bias of the model mean state.
Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.
Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui
2017-03-07
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.
Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.
Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui
2017-03-20
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.
Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming
Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui
2017-01-01
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming. PMID:28317914
Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui
2017-03-01
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Williams, Richard; Roussenov, Vassil; Goodwin, Philip; Resplandy, Laure; Bopp, Laurent
2017-04-01
Insight into how to avoid dangerous climate may be obtained from Earth system model projections, which reveal a near-linear dependence of global-mean surface warming on cumulative carbon emissions. This dependence of surface warming on carbon emissions is interpreted in terms of a product of three terms: the dependence of surface warming on radiative forcing, the fractional radiative forcing contribution from atmospheric CO2 and the dependence of radiative forcing from atmospheric CO2 on cumulative carbon emissions. Mechanistically each of these dependences varies, respectively, with ocean heat uptake, the CO2 and non-CO2 radiative forcing, and the ocean and terrestrial uptake of carbon. An ensemble of 9 Earth System models forced by up to 4 Representative Concentration Pathways are diagnosed. In all cases, the dependence of surface warming on carbon emissions evolves primarily due to competing effects of heat and carbon uptake over the upper ocean: there is a reduced effect of radiative forcing from CO2 due to ocean carbon uptake, which is partly compensated by enhanced surface warming due to a reduced effect of ocean heat uptake. There is a wide spread in the dependence of surface warming on carbon emissions, undermining the ability to identify the maximum permitted carbon emission to avoid dangerous climate. Our framework reveals how uncertainty in the future warming trend is high over the next few decades due to relatively high uncertainties in ocean heat uptake, non-CO2 radiative forcing and the undersaturation of carbon in the ocean.
Warm Arctic-cold Siberia: comparing the recent and the early 20th-century Arctic warmings
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wegmann, Martin; Orsolini, Yvan; Zolina, Olga
2018-02-01
The Warm Arctic-cold Siberia surface temperature pattern during recent boreal winter is suggested to be triggered by the ongoing decrease of Arctic autumn sea ice concentration and has been observed together with an increase in mid-latitude extreme events and a meridionalization of tropospheric circulation. However, the exact mechanism behind this dipole temperature pattern is still under debate, since model experiments with reduced sea ice show conflicting results. We use the early twentieth-century Arctic warming (ETCAW) as a case study to investigate the link between September sea ice in the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) and the Siberian temperature evolution. Analyzing a variety of long-term climate reanalyses, we find that the overall winter temperature and heat flux trend occurs with the reduction of September BKS sea ice. Tropospheric conditions show a strengthened atmospheric blocking over the BKS, strengthening the advection of cold air from the Arctic to central Siberia on its eastern flank, together with a reduction of warm air advection by the westerlies. This setup is valid for both the ETCAW and the current Arctic warming period.
Gill, Allison L; Giasson, Marc-André; Yu, Rieka; Finzi, Adrien C
2017-12-01
Boreal peatlands contain approximately 500 Pg carbon (C) in the soil, emit globally significant quantities of methane (CH 4 ), and are highly sensitive to climate change. Warming associated with global climate change is likely to increase the rate of the temperature-sensitive processes that decompose stored organic carbon and release carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and CH 4 . Variation in the temperature sensitivity of CO 2 and CH 4 production and increased peat aerobicity due to enhanced growing-season evapotranspiration may alter the nature of peatland trace gas emission. As CH 4 is a powerful greenhouse gas with 34 times the warming potential of CO 2 , it is critical to understand how factors associated with global change will influence surface CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes. Here, we leverage the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) climate change manipulation experiment to understand the impact of a 0-9°C gradient in deep belowground warming ("Deep Peat Heat", DPH) on peat surface CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes. We find that DPH treatments increased both CO 2 and CH 4 emission. Methane production was more sensitive to warming than CO 2 production, decreasing the C-CO 2 :C-CH 4 of the respired carbon. Methane production is dominated by hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis but deep peat warming increased the δ 13 C of CH 4 suggesting an increasing contribution of acetoclastic methanogenesis to total CH 4 production with warming. Although the total quantity of C emitted from the SPRUCE Bog as CH 4 is <2%, CH 4 represents >50% of seasonal C emissions in the highest-warming treatments when adjusted for CO 2 equivalents on a 100-year timescale. These results suggest that warming in boreal regions may increase CH 4 emissions from peatlands and result in a positive feedback to ongoing warming. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Slow and Steady: Ocean Circulation. The Influence of Sea Surface Height on Ocean Currents
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Haekkinen, Sirpa
2000-01-01
The study of ocean circulation is vital to understanding how our climate works. The movement of the ocean is closely linked to the progression of atmospheric motion. Winds close to sea level add momentum to ocean surface currents. At the same time, heat that is stored and transported by the ocean warms the atmosphere above and alters air pressure distribution. Therefore, any attempt to model climate variation accurately must include reliable calculations of ocean circulation. Unlike movement of the atmosphere, movement of the ocean's waters takes place mostly near the surface. The major patterns of surface circulation form gigantic circular cells known as gyres. They are categorized according to their general location-equatorial, subtropical, subpolar, and polar-and may run across an entire ocean. The smaller-scale cell of ocean circulation is known' as an eddy. Eddies are much more common than gyres and much more difficult to track in computer simulations of ocean currents.
Evidence for a Southern Pattern of Deglacial Surface Warming in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Spero, H. J.; Schmidt, M. W.; Lea, D. W.; Lavagnino, L.
2009-12-01
The timing of both Southern and Northern hemisphere warming patterns has been used to explain tropical Pacific warming at the end of the last glacial period. Despite the importance of resolving this deglacial tropical-polar connection, the controversy is still ongoing (Koutavas & Sachs, 2008; Lea et al., 2000, 2006). For instance, the initiation of eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) surface warming, derived from Mg/Ca analyses of the surface-dwelling foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber, shows a clear correlation with the Southern hemisphere. In contrast, alkenone-derived temperatures from the EEP indicate tropical warming occurred at least 3 kyr later than that implied from Mg/Ca data, thereby suggesting a Northern hemisphere link to initial SST rise. Here, we use a multispecies, multiproxy approach that is based on fundamental foraminifera biology to resolve this controversy. Laboratory experiments demonstrate the final shell size of symbiont-bearing foraminifera varies primarily as a function of the light level (=symbiont photosynthetic rate) that an individual grew under. Because light decreases exponentially in the water column, and the EEP is highly stratified with a shallow mixed layer and cold thermocline, we hypothesize that symbiotic foraminifera with a broad habitat range such as Globigerinoides sacculifer, should produce smaller shells in the more dimly lit cold thermocline than individuals growing in the more illuminated mixed layer. Moreover, these larger shells should contain a temperature signal that is similar to G. ruber, which is constrained to the shallow mixed layer. Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses conducted on 350-400 μm and >650 μm sized G. sacculifer from EEP core TR163-19 (2N, 91W, 2348) demonstrate large specimens yield Mg/Ca and δ18O that are similar to data published previously for mixed layer dwelling G. ruber. In contrast, small G. sacculifer record significantly higher δ18O and lower Mg/Ca temperatures that are consistent with a shallow
Local atmospheric response to warm mesoscale ocean eddies in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Confluence region.
Sugimoto, Shusaku; Aono, Kenji; Fukui, Shin
2017-09-19
In the extratropical regions, surface winds enhance upward heat release from the ocean to atmosphere, resulting in cold surface ocean: surface ocean temperature is negatively correlated with upward heat flux. However, in the western boundary currents and eddy-rich regions, the warmer surface waters compared to surrounding waters enhance upward heat release-a positive correlation between upward heat release and surface ocean temperature, implying that the ocean drives the atmosphere. The atmospheric response to warm mesoscale ocean eddies with a horizontal extent of a few hundred kilometers remains unclear because of a lack of observations. By conducting regional atmospheric model experiments, we show that, in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Confluence region, wintertime warm eddies heat the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), and accelerate westerly winds in the near-surface atmosphere via the vertical mixing effect, leading to wind convergence around the eastern edge of eddies. The warm-eddy-induced convergence forms local ascending motion where convective precipitation is enhanced, providing diabatic heating to the atmosphere above MABL. Our results indicate that warm eddies affect not only near-surface atmosphere but also free atmosphere, and possibly synoptic atmospheric variability. A detailed understanding of warm eddy-atmosphere interaction is necessary to improve in weather and climate projections.
Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M.
2016-01-01
The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or “committed” warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state. PMID:27461560
Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M
2016-07-27
The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or "committed" warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M.
2016-07-01
The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or “committed” warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state.
Nonlinear interaction of the Tsugaru Warm Current and tide in the Tsugaru Strait
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wada, Ryota; Waseda, Takuji; Nanjo, Hirotada
2012-06-01
The Tsugaru Strait, which connects the Sea of Japan with the Pacific Ocean, is characterized by the eastward Tsugaru Warm Current (TWC) and oscillating tidal currents of similar magnitude. A 15-day current observation was conducted in one of the two narrow channels in the strait, at the northwest tip of the Shimokita Peninsula. The observation revealed that the spectral energy of the semidiurnal current exceeds that of the diurnal current, contrary to the conventional view. The Tsugaru Strait regional model was developed to study the mechanism of this spectral energy reversal (140-141.5° E, 40.4-42.6° N, 500 m grid resolution). At the eastern and western open boundaries, the model was driven by the constant Tsugaru warm current and tidal elevation, which was adjusted by comparing the model with tidal gauge observations within the channel. The relative magnitude of the spectral energies differed from that of the observation when the model was driven by tide only. However, the spectral energy levels were reversed when the model was driven by both tide and current. The nonlinear interaction of periodic tidal currents and the steady TWC was explained by the vorticity equation, which describes the production and advection of residual currents from tidal currents. According to the model results, flow separation and advection of vorticity by the TWC was the most prominent factor in this phenomenon. Because of the strong nonlinearities, flow separation around the headland occurred during the tidal period with dominant current magnitude and furnished the main difference between the diurnal and semidiurnal interactions. These phenomena were enhanced by the complex topography, and demonstrate the importance of scale interaction, especially when developing high-resolution regional models.
Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface temperatures reveal more than warming.
Lima, Fernando P; Wethey, David S
2012-02-28
Understanding and forecasting current and future consequences of coastal warming require a fine-scale assessment of the near-shore temperature changes. Here we show that despite the fact that 71% of the world's coastlines are significantly warming, rates of change have been highly heterogeneous both spatially and seasonally. We demonstrate that 46% of the coastlines have experienced a significant decrease in the frequency of extremely cold events, while extremely hot days are becoming more common in 38% of the area. Also, we show that the onset of the warm season is significantly advancing earlier in the year in 36% of the temperate coastal regions. More importantly, it is now possible to analyse local patterns within the global context, which is useful for a broad array of scientific fields, policy makers and general public.
On the suitability of current atmospheric reanalyses for regional warming studies over China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhou, Chunlüe; He, Yanyi; Wang, Kaicun
2018-06-01
Reanalyses are widely used because they add value to routine observations by generating physically or dynamically consistent and spatiotemporally complete atmospheric fields. Existing studies include extensive discussions of the temporal suitability of reanalyses in studies of global change. This study adds to this existing work by investigating the suitability of reanalyses in studies of regional climate change, in which land-atmosphere interactions play a comparatively important role. In this study, surface air temperatures (Ta) from 12 current reanalysis products are investigated; in particular, the spatial patterns of trends in Ta are examined using homogenized measurements of Ta made at ˜ 2200 meteorological stations in China from 1979 to 2010. The results show that ˜ 80 % of the mean differences in Ta between the reanalyses and the in situ observations can be attributed to the differences in elevation between the stations and the model grids. Thus, the Ta climatologies display good skill, and these findings rebut previous reports of biases in Ta. However, the biases in theTa trends in the reanalyses diverge spatially (standard deviation = 0.15-0.30 °C decade-1 using 1° × 1° grid cells). The simulated biases in the trends in Ta correlate well with those of precipitation frequency, surface incident solar radiation (Rs) and atmospheric downward longwave radiation (Ld) among the reanalyses (r = -0.83, 0.80 and 0.77; p < 0.1) when the spatial patterns of these variables are considered. The biases in the trends in Ta over southern China (on the order of -0.07 °C decade-1) are caused by biases in the trends in Rs, Ld and precipitation frequency on the order of 0.10, -0.08 and -0.06 °C decade-1, respectively. The biases in the trends in Ta over northern China (on the order of -0.12 °C decade-1) result jointly from those in Ld and precipitation frequency. Therefore, improving the simulation of precipitation frequency and Rs helps to maximize the signal
Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.
Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen
2018-04-30
The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.
Regional patterns of the change in annual-mean tropical rainfall under global warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huang, P.
2013-12-01
Projection of the change in tropical rainfall under global warming is a major challenge with great societal implications. The current study analyzes the 18 models from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, and investigates the regional pattern of annual-mean rainfall change under global warming. With surface warming, the climatological ascending pumps up increased surface moisture and leads rainfall increase over the tropical convergence zone (wet-get-wetter effect), while the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) increase induces ascending flow and then increasing rainfall over the equatorial Pacific and the northern Indian Ocean where the local oceanic warming exceeds the tropical mean temperature increase (warmer-get-wetter effect). The background surface moisture and SST also can modify warmer-get-wetter effect: the former can influence the moisture change and contribute to the distribution of moist instability change, while the latter can suppress the role of instability change over the equatorial eastern Pacific due to the threshold effect of convection-SST relationship. The wet-get-wetter and modified warmer-get-wetter effects form a hook-like pattern of rainfall change over the tropical Pacific and an elliptic pattern over the northern Indian Ocean. The annual-mean rainfall pattern can be partly projected based on current rainfall climatology, while it also has great uncertainties due to the uncertain change in SST pattern.
Warming and Inhibition of Salinization at the Ocean's Surface by Cyanobacteria
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wurl, O.; Bird, K.; Cunliffe, M.; Landing, W. M.; Miller, U.; Mustaffa, N. I. H.; Ribas-Ribas, M.; Witte, C.; Zappa, C. J.
2018-05-01
This paper describes high-resolution in situ observations of temperature and, for the first time, of salinity in the uppermost skin layer of the ocean, including the influence of large surface blooms of cyanobacteria on those skin properties. In the presence of the blooms, large anomalies of skin temperature and salinity of 0.95°C and -0.49 practical salinity unit were found, but a substantially cooler (-0.22°C) and saltier skin layer (0.19 practical salinity unit) was found in the absence of surface blooms. The results suggest that biologically controlled warming and inhibition of salinization of the ocean's surface occur. Less saline skin layers form during precipitation, but our observations also show that surface blooms of Trichodesmium sp. inhibit evaporation decreasing the salinity at the ocean's surface. This study has important implications in the assessment of precipitation over the ocean using remotely sensed salinity, but also for a better understanding of heat exchange and the hydrologic cycle on a regional scale.
Warming of the Global Ocean: Spatial Structure and Water-Mass Trends
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hakkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B.; Worthen, Denise L.
2016-01-01
This study investigates the multidecadal warming and interannual-to-decadal heat content changes in the upper ocean (0-700 m), focusing on vertical and horizontal patterns of variability. These results support a nearly monotonic warming over much of the World Ocean, with a shift toward Southern Hemisphere warming during the well-observed past decade. This is based on objectively analyzed gridded observational datasets and on a modeled state estimate. Besides the surface warming, a warming climate also has a subsurface effect manifesting as a strong deepening of the midthermocline isopycnals, which can be diagnosed directly from hydrographic data. This deepening appears to be a result of heat entering via subduction and spreading laterally from the high-latitude ventilation regions of subtropical mode waters. The basin-average multidecadal warming mainly expands the subtropical mode water volume, with weak changes in the temperature-salinity (u-S) relationship (known as ''spice'' variability). However, the spice contribution to the heat content can be locally large, for example in Southern Hemisphere. Multidecadal isopycnal sinking has been strongest over the southern basins and weaker elsewhere with the exception of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current/subtropical recirculation gyre. At interannual to decadal time scales, wind-driven sinking and shoaling of density surfaces still dominate ocean heat content changes, while the contribution from temperature changes along density surfaces tends to decrease as time scales shorten.
Uncovering a New Current: The Southwest MAdagascar Coastal Current
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ramanantsoa, Juliano D.; Penven, P.; Krug, M.; Gula, J.; Rouault, M.
2018-02-01
Cruise data sets, satellite remote sensing observations, and model data analyses are combined to highlight the existence of a coastal surface poleward flow in the southwest of Madagascar: the Southwest MAdagascar Coastal Current (SMACC). The SMACC is a relatively shallow (<300 m) and narrow (<100 km wide) warm and salty coastal surface current, which flows along the south western coast of Madagascar toward the south, opposite to the dominant winds. The warm water surface signature of the SMACC extends from 22°S (upstream) to 26.4°S (downstream). The SMACC exhibits a seasonal variability: more intense in summer and reduced in winter. The average volume transport of its core is about 1.3 Sv with a mean summer maximum of 2.1 Sv. It is forced by a strong cyclonic wind stress curl associated with the bending of the trade winds along the southern tip of Madagascar. The SMACC directly influences the coastal upwelling regions south of Madagascar. Its existence is likely to influence local fisheries and larval transport patterns, as well as the connectivity with the Agulhas Current, affecting the returning branch of the global overturning circulation.
Soil crusts to warm the planet
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Garcia-Pichel, Ferran; Couradeau, Estelle; Karaoz, Ulas; da Rocha Ulisses, Nunes; Lim Hsiao, Chiem; Northen, Trent; Brodie, Eoin
2016-04-01
Soil surface temperature, an important driver of terrestrial biogeochemical processes, depends strongly on soil albedo, which can be significantly modified by factors such as plant cover. In sparsely vegetated lands, the soil surface can also be colonized by photosynthetic microbes that build biocrust communities. We used concurrent physical, biochemical and microbiological analyses to show that mature biocrusts can increase surface soil temperature by as much as 10 °C through the accumulation of large quantities of a secondary metabolite, the microbial sunscreen scytonemin, produced by a group of late-successional cyanobacteria. Scytonemin accumulation decreases soil albedo significantly. Such localized warming had apparent and immediate consequences for the crust soil microbiome, inducing the replacement of thermosensitive bacterial species with more thermotolerant forms. These results reveal that not only vegetation but also microorganisms are a factor in modifying terrestrial albedo, potentially impacting biosphere feedbacks on past and future climate, and call for a direct assessment of such effects at larger scales. Based on estimates of the global biomass of cyanobacteria in soil biocrusts, one can easily calculate that there must currently exist about 15 million metric tons of scytonemin at work, warming soil surfaces worldwide
Keller, Charles F
2003-05-05
Global warming and attendant climate change have been controversial for at least a decade. This is largely because of its societal implications. With the recent publication of the Third Assessment Report of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change there has been renewed interest and controversy about how certain the scientific community is of its conclusions: that humans are influencing the climate and that global temperatures will continue to rise rapidly in this century. This review attempts to update what is known and in particular what advances have been made in the past 5 years or so. It does not attempt to be comprehensive. Rather it focuses on the most controversial issues, which are actually few in number. They are: Is the surface temperature record accurate or is it biased by heat from cities, etc.?, Is that record significantly different from past warmings such as the Medieval Warming Period?, Is not the sun's increasing activity the cause of most of the warming?, Can we model climate and predict its future, or is it just too complex and chaotic?, Are there any other changes in climate other than warming, and can they be attributed to the warming? Despite continued uncertainties, the review finds affirmative answers to these questions. Of particular interest are advances that seem to explain why satellites do not see as much warming as surface instruments, how we are getting a good idea of recent paleoclimates, and why the 20th century temperature record was so complex. It makes the point that in each area new information could come to light that would change our thinking on the quantitative magnitude and timing of anthropogenic warming, but it is unlikely to alter the basic conclusions. Finally, there is a very brief discussion of the societal policy response to the scientific message, and the author comments on his 2-year email discussions with many of the world's most outspoken critics of the anthropogenic warming hypothesis.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
MacDonald, H. S.; Roughan, M.; Baird, M. E.; Wilkin, J.
2013-01-01
Endurance of larch forest ecosystems in eastern Siberia under warming trends
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sato, H.; Iwahana, G.; Ohta, T.
2015-12-01
The larch (Larix spp.) forest in eastern Siberia is the world's largest coniferous forest. However, its existence depends on near-surface permafrost, which increases water availability for trees, and the boundary of the forest closely follows the permafrost zone. Therefore, the degradation of near-surface permafrost due to forecasted warming trends during the 21st century is expected to affect the larch forest in Siberia. However, predictions of how warming trends will affect this forest vary greatly, and many uncertainties remain about land-atmospheric interactions within the ecosystem. We developed an integrated land surface model to analyze how the Siberian larch forest will react to current warming trends. This model analyzed interactions between vegetation dynamics and thermo-hydrology and showed that, under climatic conditions predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 2.6 and 8.5, annual larch net primary production (NPP) increased about 2 and 3 times, respectively, by the end of 21st century compared with that in the 20th century. Soil water content during larch growing season showed no obvious trend, even after decay of surface permafrost and accompanying sub-surface runoff. A sensitivity test showed that the forecasted warming and pluvial trends extended leafing days of larches and reduced water shortages during the growing season, thereby increasing productivity.
Influence of Transient Atmospheric Circulation on the Surface Heating of the Pacific Warm Pool
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chou, Ming-Dah; Chou, Shu-Hsien; Chan, Pui-King
2003-01-01
Analyses of data on clouds, winds, and surface heat fluxes show that the transient behavior of basin-wide large-scale circulation has a significant influence on the warm pool sea surface temperature (SST). Trade winds converge to regions of the highest SST in the equatorial western Pacific. These regions have the largest cloud cover and smallest wind speed. Both surface solar heating and evaporative cooling are weak. The reduced evaporative cooling due to weakened winds exceeds the reduced solar heating due to enhanced cloudiness. The result is a maximum surface heating in the strong convective and high SST regions. Data also show that the maximum surface heating in strong convective regions is interrupted by transient atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Due to the seasonal variation of the insolation at the top of the atmosphere, trade winds and clouds also experience seasonal variations. Regions of high SST and low-level convergence follow the Sun, where the surface heating is a maximum. As the Sun moves away from a convective region, the strong trade winds set in, and the evaporative cooling enhances, resulting in a net cooling of the surface. During an El Nino, the maximum SST and convective region shifts eastward from the maritime continent to the equatorial central Pacific. Following the eastward shift of the maximum SST, the region of maximum cloudiness and surface heating also shift eastward. As the atmospheric and oceanic circulation returns to normal situations, the trade winds increase and the surface heating decreases. We conclude that the evaporative cooling associated with the seasonal and interannual variations of trade winds is one of the major factors that modulate the SST distribution of the Pacific warm pool.
Tarling, Geraint A; Ward, Peter; Thorpe, Sally E
2018-01-01
The biogeographic response of oceanic planktonic communities to climatic change has a large influence on the future stability of marine food webs and the functioning of global biogeochemical cycles. Temperature plays a pivotal role in determining the distribution of these communities and ocean warming has the potential to cause major distributional shifts, particularly in polar regions where the thermal envelope is narrow. We considered the impact of long-term ocean warming on the spatial distribution of Southern Ocean mesozooplankton communities through examining plankton abundance in relation to sea surface temperature between two distinct periods, separated by around 60 years. Analyses considered 16 dominant mesozooplankton taxa (in terms of biomass and abundance) in the southwest Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, from net samples and in situ temperature records collected during the Discovery Investigations (1926-1938) and contemporary campaigns (1996-2013). Sea surface temperature was found to have increased significantly by 0.74°C between the two eras. The corresponding sea surface temperature at which community abundance peaked was also significantly higher in contemporary times, by 0.98°C. Spatial projections indicated that the geographical location of community peak abundance had remained the same between the two eras despite the poleward advance of sea surface isotherms. If the community had remained within the same thermal envelope as in the 1920s-1930s, community peak abundance would be 500 km further south in the contemporary era. Studies in the northern hemisphere have found that dominant taxa, such as calanoid copepods, have conserved their thermal niches and tracked surface isotherms polewards. The fact that this has not occurred in the Southern Ocean suggests that other selective pressures, particularly food availability and the properties of underlying water masses, place greater constraints on spatial distributions in this region. It
Linear dependence of surface expansion speed on initial plasma temperature in warm dense matter
Bang, Woosuk; Albright, Brian James; Bradley, Paul Andrew; ...
2016-07-12
Recent progress in laser-driven quasi-monoenergetic ion beams enabled the production of uniformly heated warm dense matter. Matter heated rapidly with this technique is under extreme temperatures and pressures, and promptly expands outward. While the expansion speed of an ideal plasma is known to have a square-root dependence on temperature, computer simulations presented here show a linear dependence of expansion speed on initial plasma temperature in the warm dense matter regime. The expansion of uniformly heated 1–100 eV solid density gold foils was modeled with the RAGE radiation-hydrodynamics code, and the average surface expansion speed was found to increase linearly withmore » temperature. The origin of this linear dependence is explained by comparing predictions from the SESAME equation-of-state tables with those from the ideal gas equation-of-state. In conclusion, these simulations offer useful insight into the expansion of warm dense matter and motivate the application of optical shadowgraphy for temperature measurement.« less
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lau, William K.; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lee, Woo-Seop
2010-01-01
Numerical experiments with the NASA finite-volume general circulation model show that heating of the atmosphere by dust and black carbon can lead to widespread enhanced warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and accelerated snow melt in the western TP and Himalayas. During the boreal spring, a thick aerosol layer, composed mainly of dust transported from adjacent deserts and black carbon from local emissions, builds up over the Indo-Gangetic Plain, against the foothills of the Himalaya and the TP. The aerosol layer, which extends from the surface to high elevation (approx.5 km), heats the mid-troposphere by absorbing solar radiation. The heating produces an atmospheric dynamical feedback the so-called elevated-heat-pump (EHP) effect, which increases moisture, cloudiness, and deep convection over northern India, as well as enhancing the rate of snow melt in the Himalayas and TP. The accelerated melting of snow is mostly confined to the western TP, first slowly in early April and then rapidly from early to mid-May. The snow cover remains reduced from mid-May through early June. The accelerated snow melt is accompanied by similar phases of enhanced warming of the atmosphere-land system of the TP, with the atmospheric warming leading the surface warming by several days. Surface energy balance analysis shows that the short-wave and long-wave surface radiative fluxes strongly offset each other, and are largely regulated by the changes in cloudiness and moisture over the TP. The slow melting phase in April is initiated by an effective transfer of sensible heat from a warmer atmosphere to land. The rapid melting phase in May is due to an evaporation-snow-land feedback coupled to an increase in atmospheric moisture over the TP induced by the EHP effect.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gill, A. L.; Finzi, A.; Hsieh, I. F.; Giasson, M. A.
2016-12-01
High latitude peatlands represent a major terrestrial carbon store sensitive to climate change, as well as a globally significant methane source. While elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and warming temperatures may increase peat respiration and C losses to the atmosphere, reductions in peatland water tables associated with increased growing season evapotranspiration may alter the nature of trace gas emission and increase peat C losses as CO2 relative to methane (CH4). As CH4 is a greenhouse gas with twenty times the warming potential of CO2, it is critical to understand how surface fluxes of CO2 and CH4 will be influenced by factors associated with global climate change. We used automated soil respiration chambers to assess the influence of elevated atmospheric CO2 and whole ecosystem warming on peatland CH4 and CO2 fluxes at the SPRUCE (Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change) Experiment in northern Minnesota. Here we report soil iCO2 and iCH4 flux responses to the first year of belowground warming and the first season of whole ecosystem warming and elevated CO2 treatments. We find that peat methane fluxes are more sensitive to warming treatments than peat CO2 fluxes, particularly in hollow peat microforms. Surface CO2:CH4 flux ratios decreased across warming treatments, suggesting that the temperature sensitivity of methane production overshadows the effect of peat drying and surface aeration in the short term. δ13C of the emitted methane was more depleted in the early and late growing season, indicating a transition from hydrogenotrophic to acetoclastic methanogenesis during periods of high photosynthetic input. The measurement record demonstrates that belowground warming has measureable impacts on the nature of peat greenhouse gas emission within one year of treatment.
Arctic Warming Signals from Satellite Observations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Comiso, Josefino C.
2005-01-01
Global warming signals are expected to be amplified in the Arctic primarily because of ice-albedo feedback associated with the high reflectivity of ice and snow that blankets much of the region. The Arctic had been a poorly explored territory basically because of its general inaccessibility on account of extremely harsh weather conditions and the dominant presence of thick perennial ice in the region. The advent of satellite remote sensing systems since the 1960s, however, enabled the acquisition of synoptic data that depict in good spatial detail the temporal changes of many Arctic surface parameters. Among the surface parameters that have been studied using space based systems are surface temperature, sea ice concentration, snow cover, surface albedo and phytoplankton concentration. Associated atmospheric parameters, such as cloud cover, temperature profile, ozone concentration, and aerosol have also been derived. Recent observational and phenomenological studies have indeed revealed progressively changing conditions in the Arctic during the last few decades (e g , Walsh et al. 1996; Serreze et al 2000; Comiso and Parkinson 2004). The changes included declines in the extent and area of surfaces covered by sea ice and snow, increases in melt area over the Greenland ice sheets, thawing of the permafrost, warming in the troposphere, and retreat of the glaciers. These observations are consistent with the observed global warming that has been associated with the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Karl and Trenberth 2003) and confirmed by modeling studies (Holland and Bitz, 2003). The Arctic system, however, is still not well understood complicated by a largely fluctuating wind circulation and atmospheric conditions (Proshutinsky and Johnson 1997) and controlled by what is now known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which provides a measure of the strength of atmospheric activities in the region (Thompson and Wallace 1998). Meanwhile, the
Understanding the El Niño-like Oceanic Response in the Tropical Pacific to Global Warming
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai
The enhanced central and eastern Pacific SST warming and the associated ocean processes under global warming are investigated using the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2). The tropical SST warming pattern in the coupled CESM can be faithfully reproduced by the POP2 forced with surface fluxes computed using the aerodynamic bulk formula. By prescribing the wind stress and/or wind speed through the bulk formula, the effects of wind stress change and/or the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback are isolated and their linearity is evaluated in this ocean-alone setting. Result shows that, although themore » weakening of the equatorial easterlies contributes positively to the El Niño-like SST warming, 80% of which can be simulated by the POP2 without considering the effects of wind change in both mechanical and thermodynamic fluxes. This result points to the importance of the air-sea thermal interaction and the relative feebleness of the ocean dynamical process in the El Niño-like equatorial Pacific SST response to global warming. On the other hand, the wind stress change is found to play a dominant role in the oceanic response in the tropical Pacific, accounting for most of the changes in the equatorial ocean current system and thermal structures, including the weakening of the surface westward currents, the enhancement of the near-surface stratification and the shoaling of the equatorial thermocline. Interestingly, greenhouse gas warming in the absence of wind stress change and WES feedback also contributes substantially to the changes at the subsurface equatorial Pacific. Further, this warming impact can be largely replicated by an idealized ocean experiment forced by a uniform surface heat flux, whereby, arguably, a purest form of oceanic dynamical thermostat is revealed.« less
Warm Middle Jurassic-Early Cretaceous high-latitude sea-surface temperatures from the Southern Ocean
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jenkyns, H. C.; Schouten-Huibers, L.; Schouten, S.; Sinninghe Damsté, J. S.
2012-02-01
Although a division of the Phanerozoic climatic modes of the Earth into "greenhouse" and "icehouse" phases is widely accepted, whether or not polar ice developed during the relatively warm Jurassic and Cretaceous Periods is still under debate. In particular, there is a range of isotopic and biotic evidence that favours the concept of discrete "cold snaps", marked particularly by migration of certain biota towards lower latitudes. Extension of the use of the palaeotemperature proxy TEX86 back to the Middle Jurassic indicates that relatively warm sea-surface conditions (26-30 °C) existed from this interval (∼160 Ma) to the Early Cretaceous (∼115 Ma) in the Southern Ocean, with a general warming trend through the Late Jurassic followed by a general cooling trend through the Early Cretaceous. The lowest sea-surface temperatures are recorded from around the Callovian-Oxfordian boundary, an interval identified in Europe as relatively cool, but do not fall below 25 °C. The early Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event, identified on the basis of published biostratigraphy, total organic carbon and carbon-isotope stratigraphy, records an interval with the lowest, albeit fluctuating Early Cretaceous palaeotemperatures (∼26 °C), recalling similar phenomena recorded from Europe and the tropical Pacific Ocean. Extant belemnite δ18O data, assuming an isotopic composition of waters inhabited by these fossils of -1‰ SMOW, give palaeotemperatures throughout the Upper Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous interval that are consistently lower by ∼14 °C than does TEX86 and the molluscs likely record conditions below the thermocline. The long-term, warm climatic conditions indicated by the TEX86 data would only be compatible with the existence of continental ice if appreciable areas of high altitude existed on Antarctica, and/or in other polar regions, during the Mesozoic Era.
Bransburg-Zabary, Sharron; Virozub, Alexander; Mimouni, Francis B.
2015-01-01
Human milk handling guidelines are very demanding, based upon solid scientific evidence that handling methods can make a real difference in infant health and nutrition. Indeed, properly stored milk maintains many of its unique qualities and continues to be the second and third best infant feeding alternatives, much superior to artificial feeding. Container type and shape, mode of steering, amount of air exposure and storage temperature may adversely affect milk stability and composition. Heating above physiological temperatures significantly impacts nutritional and immunological properties of milk. In spite of this knowledge, there are no strict guidelines regarding milk warming. Human milk is often heated in electrical-based bottle warmers that can exceed 80°C, a temperature at which many beneficial human milk properties disappear. High temperatures can also induce fat profile variations as compared with fresh human milk. In this manuscript we estimate the amount of damage due to overheating during warming using a heat flow simulation of a regular water based bottle warmer. To do so, we carried out a series of warming simulations which provided us with dynamic temperature fields within bottled milk. We simulated the use of a hot water-bath at 80°C to heat bottled refrigerated milk (60ml and 178 ml) to demonstrate that large milk portions are overheated (above 40°C). It seems that the contemporary storage method (upright feeding tool, i.e. bottle) and bottle warming device, are not optimize to preserve the unique properties of human milk. Health workers and parents should be aware of this problem especially when it relates to sick neonates and preemies that cannot be directly fed at the breast. PMID:26061694
Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hansen, James E.
2000-01-01
Evidence on a broad range of time scales, from Proterozoic to the most recent periods, shows that the Earth's climate responds sensitively to global forcings. In the past few decades the Earth's surface has warmed rapidly, apparently in response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The conventional view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate in the 21st century. I will describe an alternate scenario that would slow the rate of global warming and reduce the danger of dramatic climate change. But reliable prediction of future climate change requires improved knowledge of the carbon cycle and global observations that allow interpretation of ongoing climate change.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aoyagi, Toshinori; Takahashi, Shunji
2012-02-01
To investigate how a three-dimensional structure such as an urban canyon can affect urban surface warming, we developed an urban multilayer radiation scheme. The complete consideration of multiple scattering of shortwave and longwave radiation using the radiosity method is an important feature of the present scheme. A brief description of this scheme is presented, followed by evaluations that compare its results with observations of the effective albedo and radiative temperature for urban blocks. Next, we calculate the urban surface warming potential (USWP), defined as the difference between the daily mean radiative temperature of urban surfaces (which are assumed to be black bodies), including their canyon effects and the daily mean temperature of a flat surface with the same material properties, under a radiative equilibrium state. Assuming standard material properties (albedo and emissivity of 0.4 and 0.9, respectively), we studied the sensitivity of the USWP to various aspect ratios of building heights to road widths. The results show that the temporally-averaged surface temperature of an urban area can be higher than that of a flat surface. In addition, we determined the overestimation of the effective temperature of urban surfaces induced by the overestimation of the radiation distribution to the walls when one uses a single-layer scheme for urban block arrays that have a low sky-view factor less than around 0.5.
Trichodesmium blooms and warm-core ocean surface features in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
Jyothibabu, R; Karnan, C; Jagadeesan, L; Arunpandi, N; Pandiarajan, R S; Muraleedharan, K R; Balachandran, K K
2017-08-15
Trichodesmium is a bloom-forming, diazotrophic, non-heterocystous cyanobacteria widely distributed in the warmer oceans, and their bloom is considered a 'biological indication' of stratification and nitrogen limitation in the ocean surface layer. In the first part of this paper, based on the retrospective analyses of the ocean surface mesoscale features associated with 59 Trichodesmium bloom incidences recorded in the past, 32 from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, and 27 from the rest of the world, we have showed that warm-core features have an inducing effect on bloom formation. In the second part, we have considered the environmental preferences of Trichodesmium bloom based on laboratory and field studies across the globe, and proposed a view about how warm-core features could provide an inducing pre-requisite condition for the bloom formation in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Proposed that the subsurface waters of warm-core features maintain more likely chances for the conducive nutrient and light conditions required for the triggering of the blooms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Rita Roars Through a Warm Gulf September 22, 2005
2005-09-22
This sea surface height map of the Gulf of Mexico, with the Florida peninsula on the right and the Texas-Mexico Gulf Coast on the left, is based on altimeter data from four satellites including NASA’s Topex/Poseidon and Jason. Red indicates a strong circulation of much warmer waters, which can feed energy to a hurricane. This area stands 35 to 60 centimeters (about 13 to 23 inches) higher than the surrounding waters of the Gulf. The actual track of a hurricane is primarily dependent upon steering winds, which are forecasted through the use of atmospheric models. However, the interaction of the hurricane with the upper ocean is the primary source of energy for the storm. Hurricane intensity is therefore greatly affected by the upper ocean temperature structure and can exhibit explosive growth over warm ocean currents and eddies. Eddies are currents of water that run contrary to the direction of the main current. According to the forecasted track through the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Rita will continue crossing the warm waters of a Gulf of Mexico circulation feature called the Loop Current and then pass near a warm-water eddy called the Eddy Vortex, located in the north central Gulf, south of Louisiana. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA06427
Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming.
Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Elison Timm, Oliver; Ganopolski, Andrey
2016-11-01
Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing-referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity ( S )-is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth's future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections.
Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming
Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Elison Timm, Oliver; Ganopolski, Andrey
2016-01-01
Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing—referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity (S)—is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth’s future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections. PMID:28861462
Keller, Charles F
2007-03-09
In the four years since my original review (Keller[25]; hereafter referred to as CFK03), research has clarified and strengthened our understanding of how humans are warming the planet. So many of the details highlighted in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report[21] and in CFK03 have been resolved that I expect many to be a bit overwhelmed, and I hope that, by treating just the most significant aspects of the research, this update may provide a road map through the expected maze of new information. In particular, while most of CFK03 remains current, there are important items that have changed: Most notable is the resolution of the conundrum that mid-tropospheric warming did not seem to match surface warming. Both satellite and radiosonde (balloon-borne sensors) data reduction showed little warming in the middle troposphere (4-8 km altitude). In the CFK03 I discussed potential solutions to this problem, but at that time there was no clear resolution. This problem has now been solved, and the middle troposphere is seen to be warming apace with the surface. There have also been advances in determinations of temperatures over the past 1,000 years showing a cooler Little Ice Age (LIA) but essentially the same warming during medieval times (not as large as recent warming). The recent uproar over the so-called "hockey stick" temperature determination is much overblown since at least seven other groups have made relatively independent determinations of northern hemisphere temperatures over the same time period and derived essentially the same results. They differ on how cold the LIA was but essentially agree with the Mann's hockey stick result that the Medieval Warm Period was not as warm as the last 25 years. The question of the sun's influence on climate continues to generate controversy. It appears there is a growing consensus that, while the sun was a major factor in earlier temperature variations, it is incapable of having caused observed warming in the past quarter
A Digital Map From External Forcing to the Final Surface Warming Pattern and its Seasonal Cycle
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cai, M.
2015-12-01
Historically, only the thermodynamic processes (e.g., water vapor, cloud, surface albedo, and atmospheric lapse rate) that directly influence the top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative energy flux balance are considered in climate feedback analysis. One of my recent research areas is to develop a new framework for climate feedback analysis that explicitly takes into consideration not only the thermodynamic processes that the directly influence the TOA radiative energy flux balance but also the local dynamical (e.g., evaporation, surface sensible heat flux, vertical convections etc) and non-local dynamical (large-scale horizontal energy transport) processes in aiming to explain the warming asymmetry between high and low latitudes, between ocean and land, and between the surface and atmosphere. In the last 5-6 years, we have developed a coupled atmosphere-surface climate feedback-response analysis method (CFRAM) as a new framework for estimating climate feedback and sensitivity in coupled general circulation models with a full physical parameterization package. In the CFRAM, the isolation of partial temperature changes due to an external forcing alone or an individual feedback is achieved by solving the linearized infrared radiation transfer model subject to individual energy flux perturbations (external or due to feedbacks). The partial temperature changes are addable and their sum is equal to the (total) temperature change (in the linear sense). The CFRAM is used to isolate the partial temperature changes due to the external forcing, due to water vapor feedback, clouds, surface albedo, local vertical convection, and non-local atmospheric dynamical feedbacks, as well as oceanic heat storage. It has been shown that seasonal variations in the cloud feedback, surface albedo feedback, and ocean heat storage/dynamics feedback, directly caused by the strong annual cycle of insolation, contribute primarily to the large seasonal variation of polar warming. Furthermore, the
Military Implications of Global Warming.
1999-05-20
U.S. environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current U.S. Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate...for military involvement to reduce global warming . Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the U.S. military. As the United
King penguin population threatened by Southern Ocean warming.
Le Bohec, Céline; Durant, Joël M; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Stenseth, Nils C; Park, Young-Hyang; Pradel, Roger; Grémillet, David; Gendner, Jean-Paul; Le Maho, Yvon
2008-02-19
Seabirds are sensitive indicators of changes in marine ecosystems and might integrate and/or amplify the effects of climate forcing on lower levels in food chains. Current knowledge on the impact of climate changes on penguins is primarily based on Antarctic birds identified by using flipper bands. Although flipper bands have helped to answer many questions about penguin biology, they were shown in some penguin species to have a detrimental effect. Here, we present for a Subantarctic species, king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus), reliable results on the effect of climate on survival and breeding based on unbanded birds but instead marked by subcutaneous electronic tags. We show that warm events negatively affect both breeding success and adult survival of this seabird. However, the observed effect is complex because it affects penguins at several spatio/temporal levels. Breeding reveals an immediate response to forcing during warm phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation affecting food availability close to the colony. Conversely, adult survival decreases with a remote sea-surface temperature forcing (i.e., a 2-year lag warming taking place at the northern boundary of pack ice, their winter foraging place). We suggest that this time lag may be explained by the delay between the recruitment and abundance of their prey, adjusted to the particular 1-year breeding cycle of the king penguin. The derived population dynamic model suggests a 9% decline in adult survival for a 0.26 degrees C warming. Our findings suggest that king penguin populations are at heavy extinction risk under the current global warming predictions.
Influence of warm air-drying on enamel bond strength and surface free-energy of self-etch adhesives.
Shiratsuchi, Koji; Tsujimoto, Akimasa; Takamizawa, Toshiki; Furuichi, Tetsuya; Tsubota, Keishi; Kurokawa, Hiroyasu; Miyazaki, Masashi
2013-08-01
We examined the effect of warm air-drying on the enamel bond strengths and the surface free-energy of three single-step self-etch adhesives. Bovine mandibular incisors were mounted in self-curing resin and then wet ground with #600 silicon carbide (SiC) paper. The adhesives were applied according to the instructions of the respective manufacturers and then dried in a stream of normal (23°C) or warm (37°C) air for 5, 10, and 20 s. After visible-light irradiation of the adhesives, resin composites were condensed into a mold and polymerized. Ten samples per test group were stored in distilled water at 37°C for 24 h and then the bond strengths were measured. The surface free-energies were determined by measuring the contact angles of three test liquids placed on the cured adhesives. The enamel bond strengths varied according to the air-drying time and ranged from 15.8 to 19.1 MPa. The trends for the bond strengths were different among the materials. The value of the γS⁺ component increased slightly when drying was performed with a stream of warm air, whereas that of the γS⁻ component decreased significantly. These data suggest that warm air-drying is essential to obtain adequate enamel bond strengths, although increasing the drying time did not significantly influence the bond strength. © 2013 Eur J Oral Sci.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ma, H. Y.; Klein, S. A.; Xie, S.; Zhang, C.; Morcrette, C. J.; Van Weverberg, K.; Petch, J.
2016-12-01
The CAUSES (Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface) is a joint GASS/RGCM/ASR model intercomparison project with an observational focus (data from the U.S. DOE ARM SGP site and other observations). The goal of this project is to evaluate the role of clouds, radiation and precipitation processes in contributing to the surface air temperature bias in the region of the central U.S., which is seen in several weather and climate models. In this project, we use a short-term hindcast approach and examine the error growth due to cloud-associated processes while the large-scale state remains close to observations. The study period is from April 1 to August 31, 2011, which also covers the entire Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) campaign that provides very frequent radiosondes (8 per day) and many extensive cloud and precipitation radar observations. Our preliminary analysis indicates that the warm surface air temperature bias in the mean diurnal cycle of the whole study period is very robust across all the participating models over the ARM SGP site. During the spring season (April-May), the daytime warm bias in most models is mostly due to excessive net surface shortwave flux resulting from insufficient deep convective cloud fraction or too optically thin clouds. The nighttime warm bias is likely due to the excessive downwelling longwave flux warming resulting from the persisting deep clouds. During the summer season (June-August), bias contribution from precipitation bias becomes important. The insufficient seasonal accumulated precipitation from the propagating convective systems originated from the Rockies contributes to lower soil moisture. Such condition drives the land surface to a dry state whereby radiative input can only be balanced by sensible heat loss through an increased surface air temperature. More information about the CAUSES project can be found through the following project webpage (http
Indian Ocean warming during 1958-2004 simulated by a climate system model and its mechanism
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Wu, Bo
2014-01-01
The mechanism responsible for Indian Ocean Sea surface temperature (SST) basin-wide warming trend during 1958-2004 is studied based on both observational data analysis and numerical experiments with a climate system model FGOALS-gl. To quantitatively estimate the relative contributions of external forcing (anthropogenic and natural forcing) and internal variability, three sets of numerical experiments are conducted, viz. an all forcing run forced by both anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols) and natural forcing (solar constant and volcanic aerosols), a natural forcing run driven by only natural forcing, and a pre-industrial control run. The model results are compared to the observations. The results show that the observed warming trend during 1958-2004 (0.5 K (47-year)-1) is largely attributed to the external forcing (more than 90 % of the total trend), while the residual is attributed to the internal variability. Model results indicate that the anthropogenic forcing accounts for approximately 98.8 % contribution of the external forcing trend. Heat budget analysis shows that the surface latent heat flux due to atmosphere and surface longwave radiation, which are mainly associated with anthropogenic forcing, are in favor of the basin-wide warming trend. The basin-wide warming is not spatially uniform, but with an equatorial IOD-like pattern in climate model. The atmospheric processes, oceanic processes and climatological latent heat flux together form an equatorial IOD-like warming pattern, and the oceanic process is the most important in forming the zonal dipole pattern. Both the anthropogenic forcing and natural forcing result in easterly wind anomalies over the equator, which reduce the wind speed, thereby lead to less evaporation and warmer SST in the equatorial western basin. Based on Bjerknes feedback, the easterly wind anomalies uplift the thermocline, which is unfavorable to SST warming in the eastern basin, and contribute to SST
Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A.; Crowe, Sean A.; Hecky, Robert E.
2014-01-01
Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient. PMID:25295730
Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A; Crowe, Sean A; Hecky, Robert E
2014-01-01
Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.
Global warming: Clouds cooled the Earth
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mauritsen, Thorsten
2016-12-01
The slow instrumental-record warming is consistent with lower-end climate sensitivity. Simulations and observations now show that changing sea surface temperature patterns could have affected cloudiness and thereby dampened the warming.
The rogue nature of hiatuses in a global warming climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sévellec, F.; Sinha, B.; Skliris, N.
2016-08-01
The nature of rogue events is their unlikelihood and the recent unpredicted decade-long slowdown in surface warming, the so-called hiatus, may be such an event. However, given decadal variability in climate, global surface temperatures were never expected to increase monotonically with increasing radiative forcing. Here surface air temperature from 20 climate models is analyzed to estimate the historical and future likelihood of hiatuses and "surges" (faster than expected warming), showing that the global hiatus of the early 21st century was extremely unlikely. A novel analysis of future climate scenarios suggests that hiatuses will almost vanish and surges will strongly intensify by 2100 under a "business as usual" scenario. For "CO2 stabilisation" scenarios, hiatus, and surge characteristics revert to typical 1940s values. These results suggest to study the hiatus of the early 21st century and future reoccurrences as rogue events, at the limit of the variability of current climate modelling capability.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ohishi, Shun; Tozuka, Tomoki; Komori, Nobumasa
2016-12-01
Detailed mechanisms for frontogenesis/frontolysis of the Agulhas Return Current (ARC) Front, defined as the maximum of the meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient at each longitude within the ARC region (40°-50°E, 55°-35°S), are investigated using observational datasets. Due to larger (smaller) latent heat release to the atmosphere on the northern (southern) side of the front, the meridional gradient of surface net heat flux (NHF) is found throughout the year. In austral summer, surface warming is weaker (stronger) on the northern (southern) side, and thus the NHF tends to relax the SST front. The weaker (stronger) surface warming, at the same time, leads to the deeper (shallower) mixed layer on the northern (southern) side. This enhances the frontolysis, because deeper (shallower) mixed layer is less (more) sensitive to surface warming. In austral winter, stronger (weaker) surface cooling on the northern (southern) side contributes to the frontolysis. However, deeper (shallower) mixed layer is induced by stronger (weaker) surface cooling on the northern (southern) side and suppresses the frontolysis, because the deeper (shallower) mixed layer is less (more) sensitive to surface cooling. Therefore, the frontolysis by the NHF becomes stronger (weaker) through the mixed layer processes in austral summer (winter). The cause of the meridional gradient of mixed layer depth is estimated using diagnostic entrainment velocity and the Monin-Obukhov depth. Furthermore, the above mechanisms obtained from the observation are confirmed using outputs from a high-resolution coupled general circulation model. Causes of model biases are also discussed.
Desert Amplification in a Warming Climate
Zhou, Liming
2016-01-01
Here I analyze the observed and projected surface temperature anomalies over land between 50°S-50°N for the period 1950–2099 by large-scale ecoregion and find strongest warming consistently and persistently seen over driest ecoregions such as the Sahara desert and the Arabian Peninsula during various 30-year periods, pointing to desert amplification in a warming climate. This amplification enhances linearly with the global mean greenhouse gases(GHGs) radiative forcing and is attributable primarily to a stronger GHGs-enhanced downward longwave radiation forcing reaching the surface over drier ecoregions as a consequence of a warmer and thus moister atmosphere in response to increasing GHGs. These results indicate that desert amplification may represent a fundamental pattern of global warming associated with water vapor feedbacks over land in low- and mid- latitudes where surface warming rates depend inversely on ecosystem dryness. It is likely that desert amplification might involve two types of water vapor feedbacks that maximize respectively in the tropical upper troposphere and near the surface over deserts, with both being very dry and thus extremely sensitive to changes of water vapor. PMID:27538725
Xu, Deke; Lu, Houyuan; Wu, Naiqin; Liu, Zhenxia; Li, Tiegang; Shen, Caiming; Wang, Luo
2013-06-11
A high-resolution multiproxy record, including pollen, foraminifera, and alkenone paleothermometry, obtained from a single core (DG9603) from the Okinawa Trough, East China Sea (ECS), provided unambiguous evidence for asynchronous climate change between the land and ocean over the past 40 ka. On land, the deglacial stage was characterized by rapid warming, as reflected by paleovegetation, and it began ca. 15 kaBP, consistent with the timing of the last deglacial warming in Greenland. However, sea surface temperature estimates from foraminifera and alkenone paleothermometry increased around 20-19 kaBP, as in the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). Sea surface temperatures in the Okinawa Trough were influenced mainly by heat transport from the tropical western Pacific Ocean by the Kuroshio Current, but the epicontinental vegetation of the ECS was influenced by atmospheric circulation linked to the northern high-latitude climate. Asynchronous terrestrial and marine signals of the last deglacial warming in East Asia were thus clearly related to ocean currents and atmospheric circulation. We argue that (i) early warming seawater of the WPWP, driven by low-latitude insolation and trade winds, moved northward via the Kuroshio Current and triggered marine warming along the ECS around 20-19 kaBP similar to that in the WPWP, and (ii) an almost complete shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ca. 18-15 kaBP was associated with cold Heinrich stadial-1 and delayed terrestrial warming during the last deglacial warming until ca. 15 kaBP at northern high latitudes, and hence in East Asia. Terrestrial deglacial warming therefore lagged behind marine changes by ca. 3-4 ka.
Xu, Deke; Lu, Houyuan; Wu, Naiqin; Liu, Zhenxia; Li, Tiegang; Shen, Caiming; Wang, Luo
2013-01-01
A high-resolution multiproxy record, including pollen, foraminifera, and alkenone paleothermometry, obtained from a single core (DG9603) from the Okinawa Trough, East China Sea (ECS), provided unambiguous evidence for asynchronous climate change between the land and ocean over the past 40 ka. On land, the deglacial stage was characterized by rapid warming, as reflected by paleovegetation, and it began ca. 15 kaBP, consistent with the timing of the last deglacial warming in Greenland. However, sea surface temperature estimates from foraminifera and alkenone paleothermometry increased around 20–19 kaBP, as in the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). Sea surface temperatures in the Okinawa Trough were influenced mainly by heat transport from the tropical western Pacific Ocean by the Kuroshio Current, but the epicontinental vegetation of the ECS was influenced by atmospheric circulation linked to the northern high-latitude climate. Asynchronous terrestrial and marine signals of the last deglacial warming in East Asia were thus clearly related to ocean currents and atmospheric circulation. We argue that (i) early warming seawater of the WPWP, driven by low-latitude insolation and trade winds, moved northward via the Kuroshio Current and triggered marine warming along the ECS around 20–19 kaBP similar to that in the WPWP, and (ii) an almost complete shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ca. 18–15 kaBP was associated with cold Heinrich stadial-1 and delayed terrestrial warming during the last deglacial warming until ca. 15 kaBP at northern high latitudes, and hence in East Asia. Terrestrial deglacial warming therefore lagged behind marine changes by ca. 3–4 ka. PMID:23720306
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yin, Jin-Fang; Wang, Dong-Hai; Liang, Zhao-Ming; Liu, Chong-Jian; Zhai, Guo-Qing; Wang, Hong
2018-02-01
Simulations of the severe precipitation event that occurred in the warm sector over southern China on 08 May 2014 are conducted using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARWv3.5.1) model to investigate the roles of microphysical latent heating and surface heat fluxes during the severe precipitation processes. At first, observations from surface rain gauges and ground-based weather radars are used to evaluate the model outputs. Results show that the spatial distribution of 24-h accumulated precipitation is well reproduced, and the temporal and spatial distributions of the simulated radar reflectivity agree well with the observations. Then, several sensitive simulations are performed with the identical model configurations, except for different options in microphysical latent heating and surface heat fluxes. From the results, one of the significant findings is that the latent heating from warm rain microphysical processes heats the atmosphere in the initial phase of the precipitation and thus convective systems start by self-triggering and self-organizing, despite the fact that the environmental conditions are not favorable to the occurrence of precipitation event at the initial phase. In the case of the severe precipitation event over the warm sector, both warm and ice microphysical processes are active with the ice microphysics processes activated almost two hours later. According to the sensitive results, there is a very weak precipitation without heavy rainfall belt when microphysical latent heating is turned off. In terms of this precipitation event, the warm microphysics processes play significant roles on precipitation intensity, while the ice microphysics processes have effects on the spatial distribution of precipitation. Both surface sensible and latent heating have effects on the precipitation intensity and spatial distribution. By comparison, the surface sensible heating has a strong influence on the spatial distribution of precipitation
Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.
Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa
2011-04-01
Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wickham, J.; Wade, T. G.; Riitters, K. H.
2014-09-01
Forest-oriented climate mitigation policies promote forestation as a means to increase uptake of atmospheric carbon to counteract global warming. Some have pointed out that a carbon-centric forest policy may be overstated because it discounts biophysical aspects of the influence of forests on climate. In extra-tropical regions, many climate models have shown that forests tend to be warmer than grasslands and croplands because forest albedos tend to be lower than non-forest albedos. A lower forest albedo results in higher absorption of solar radiation and increased sensible warming that is not offset by the cooling effects of carbon uptake in extra-tropical regions. However, comparison of forest warming potential in the context of climate models is based on a coarse classification system of tropical, temperate, and boreal. There is considerable variation in climate within the broad latitudinal zonation of tropical, temperate, and boreal, and the relationship between biophysical (albedo) and biogeochemical (carbon uptake) mechanisms may not be constant within these broad zones. We compared wintertime forest and non-forest surface temperatures for the southeastern United States and found that forest surface temperatures shifted from being warmer than non-forest surface temperatures north of approximately 36°N to cooler south of 36°N. Our results suggest that the biophysical aspects of forests' influence on climate reinforce the biogeochemical aspects of forests' influence on climate south of 36°N. South of 36°N, both biophysical and biogeochemical properties of forests appear to support forestation as a climate mitigation policy. We also provide some quantitative evidence that evergreen forests tend to have cooler wintertime surface temperatures than deciduous forests that may be attributable to greater evapotranspiration rates.
Attributing extreme precipitation in the Black Sea region to sea surface warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Meredith, Edmund; Semenov, Vladimir; Maraun, Douglas; Park, Wonsun; Chernokulsky, Alexander
2016-04-01
Higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs) warm and moisten the overlying atmosphere, increasing the low-level atmospheric instability, the moisture available to precipitating systems and, hence, the potential for intense convective systems. Both the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions have seen a steady increase in summertime SSTs since the early 1980s, by over 2 K in places. This raises the question of how this SST increase has affected convective precipitation extremes in the region, and through which mechanisms any effects are manifested. In particular, the Black Sea town of Krymsk suffered an unprecedented precipitation extreme in July 2012, which may have been influenced by Black Sea warming, causing over 170 deaths. To address this question, we adopt two distinct modelling approaches to event attribution and compare their relative merits. In the first, we use the traditional probabilistic event attribution approach involving global climate model ensembles representative of the present and a counterfactual past climate where regional SSTs have not increased. In the second, we use the conditional event attribution approach, taking the 2012 Krymsk precipitation extreme as a showcase example. Under the second approach, we carry out ensemble sensitivity experiments of the Krymsk event at convection-permitting resolution with the WRF regional model, and test the sensitivity of the event to a range of SST forcings. Both experiments show the crucial role of recent Black Sea warming in amplifying the 2012 Krymsk precipitation extreme. In the conditional event attribution approach, though, the explicit simulation of convective processes provides detailed insight into the physical mechanisms behind the extremeness of the event, revealing the dominant role of dynamical (i.e. static stability and vertical motions) over thermodynamical (i.e. increased atmospheric moisture) changes. Additionally, the wide range of SST states tested in the regional setup, which would be
Delayed warming hiatus over the Tibetan Plateau
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
An, Wenling; Hou, Shugui; Hu, Yongyun; Wu, Shuangye
2017-03-01
A reduction in the warming rate for the global surface temperature since the late 1990s has attracted much attention and caused a great deal of controversy. During the same time period, however, most previous studies have reported enhanced warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In this study we further examined the temperature trend of the TP and surrounding areas based on the homogenized temperature records for the period 1980-2014, we found that for the TP regions lower than 4000 m the warming rate has started to slow down since the late 1990s, a similar pattern consistent with the whole China and the global temperature trend. However, for the TP regions higher than 4000 m, this reduction in warming rate did not occur until the mid-2000s. This delayed warming hiatus could be related to changes in regional radiative, energy, and land surface processes in recent years.
Temperature and size variabilities of the Western Pacific Warm Pool
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Yan, Xiao-Hai; Ho, Chung-Ru; Zheng, Quanan; Klemas, Vic
1992-01-01
Variabilities in sea-surface temperature and size of the Western Pacific Warm Pool were tracked with 10 years of satellite multichannel sea-surface temperature observations from 1982 to 1991. The results show that both annual mean sea-surface temperature and the size of the warm pool increased from 1983 to 1987 and fluctuated after 1987. Possible causes of these variations include solar irradiance variabilities, El Nino-Southern Oscillaton events, volcanic activities, and global warming.
A preliminary study of the tropical water cycle and its sensitivity to surface warming
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lau, K. M.; Sui, C. H.; Tao, W. K.
1993-01-01
The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCEM) has been used to demonstrate that cumulus-scale dynamics and microphysics play a major role in determining the vertical distribution of water vapor and clouds in the tropical atmosphere. The GCEM is described and is the basic structure of cumulus convection. The long-term equilibrium response to tropical convection to surface warming is examined. A picture of the water cycle within tropical cumulus clusters is developed.
Contoured Surface Eddy Current Inspection System
Batzinger, Thomas James; Fulton, James Paul; Rose, Curtis Wayne; Perocchi, Lee Cranford
2003-04-08
Eddy current inspection of a contoured surface of a workpiece is performed by forming a backing piece of flexible, resiliently yieldable material with a contoured exterior surface conforming in shape to the workpiece contoured surface. The backing piece is preferably cast in place so as to conform to the workpiece contoured surface. A flexible eddy current array probe is attached to the contoured exterior surface of the backing piece such that the probe faces the contoured surface of the workpiece to be inspected when the backing piece is disposed adjacent to the workpiece. The backing piece is then expanded volumetrically by inserting at least one shim into a slot in the backing piece to provide sufficient contact pressure between the probe and the workpiece contoured surface to enable the inspection of the workpiece contoured surface to be performed.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Houghton, John
2005-06-01
'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Demissie, Teferi; Toniazzo, Thomas; Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Ilicak, Mehmet; Shen, Mao-Lin
2018-06-01
We have investigated the causes of the sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean simulated by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Similar to other coupled-models, NorESM has a warm SST bias in the ABFZ of up to 8 °C in the annual mean. Our analysis of NorESM reveals that a cyclonic surface wind bias over the ABFZ drives a locally excessively strong southward (0.05 m/s (relative to observation)) Angola Current displacing the ABFZ southward. A series of uncoupled stand-alone atmosphere and ocean model simulations are performed to investigate the cause of the coupled model bias. The stand-alone atmosphere model driven with observed SST exhibits a similar cyclonic surface circulation bias; while the stand-alone ocean model forced with the reanalysis data produces a warm SST in the ABFZ with a magnitude approximately half of that in the coupled NorESM simulation. An additional uncoupled sensitivity experiment shows that the atmospheric model's local negative surface wind curl generates anomalously strong Angola Current at the ocean surface. Consequently, this contributes to the warm SST bias in the ABFZ by 2 °C (compared to the reanalysis forced simulation). There is no evidence that local air-sea feedbacks among wind stress curl, SST, and sea level pressure (SLP) affect the ABFZ SST bias. Turbulent surface heat flux differences between coupled and uncoupled experiments explain the remaining 2 °C warm SST bias in NorESM. Ocean circulation, upwelling and turbulent heat flux errors all modulate the intensity and the seasonality of the ABFZ errors.
The Tropical Western Hemisphere Warm Pool
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, C.; Enfield, D. B.
2002-12-01
The paper describes and examines variability of the tropical Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) of water warmer than 28.5oC. The WHWP is the second-largest tropical warm pool on Earth. Unlike the Eastern Hemisphere warm pool in the western Pacific, which straddles the equator, the WHWP is entirely north of the equator. At various stages of development the WHWP extends over parts of the eastern North Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the western tropical North Atlantic. It has a large seasonal cycle and its interannual fluctuations of area and intensity are significant. Surface heat fluxes warm the WHWP through the boreal spring to an annual maximum of SST and WHWP area in the late summer/early fall, associated with eastern North Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activities and rainfall from northern South America to the southern tier of the United States. Observations suggest that a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback operating through longwave radiation and associated cloudiness seems to operate in the WHWP. During winter preceding large warm pool, there is an alteration of the Walker and Hadley circulation cells that serves as a "tropospheric bridge" for transferring Pacific ENSO effects to the Atlantic sector and inducing initial warming of warm pool. Associated with the warm SST anomalies is a decrease in sea level pressure anomalies and an anomalous increase in atmospheric convection and cloudiness. The increase in convective activity and cloudiness results in less net longwave radiation loss from the sea surface, which then reinforces SST anomalies.
Eddy Current Probe for Surface and Sub-Surface Inspection
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wincheski, Russell A. (Inventor); Simpson, John W. (Inventor)
2014-01-01
An eddy current probe includes an excitation coil for coupling to a low-frequency alternating current (AC) source. A magneto-resistive sensor is centrally disposed within and at one end of the excitation coil to thereby define a sensing end of the probe. A tubular flux-focusing lens is disposed between the excitation coil and the magneto-resistive sensor. An excitation wire is spaced apart from the magneto-resistive sensor in a plane that is perpendicular to the sensor's axis of sensitivity and such that, when the sensing end of the eddy current probe is positioned adjacent to the surface of a structure, the excitation wire is disposed between the magneto-resistive sensor and the surface of the structure. The excitation wire is coupled to a high-frequency AC source. The excitation coil and flux-focusing lens can be omitted when only surface inspection is required.
Physical Mechanisms of Rapid Lake Warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lenters, J. D.
2016-12-01
Recent studies have shown significant warming of inland water bodies around the world. Many lakes are warming more rapidly than the ambient surface air temperature, and this is counter to what is often expected based on the lake surface energy balance. A host of reasons have been proposed to explain these discrepancies, including changes in the onset of summer stratification, significant loss of ice cover, and concomitant changes in winter air temperature and/or summer cloud cover. A review of the literature suggests that no single physical mechanism is primarily responsible for the majority of these changes, but rather that the large heterogeneity in regional climate trends and lake geomorphometry results in a host of potential physical drivers. In this study, we discuss the variety of mechanisms that have been proposed to explain rapid lake warming and offer an assessment of the physical plausibility for each potential contributor. Lake Superior is presented as a case study to illustrate the "perfect storm" of factors that can cause a deep, dimictic lake to warm at rate that exceeds the rate of global air temperature warming by nearly an order of magnitude. In particular, we use a simple mixed-layer model to show that spatially variable trends in Lake Superior surface water temperature are determined, to first order, by variations in bathymetry and winter air temperature. Summer atmospheric conditions are often of less significance, and winter ice cover may simply be a correlate. The results highlight the importance of considering the full range of factors that can lead to trends in lake surface temperature, and that conventional wisdom may often not be the best guide.
Eisenhauer, Nico; Stefanski, Artur; Fisichelli, Nicholas A; Rice, Karen; Rich, Roy; Reich, Peter B
2014-11-03
Climate change causes species range shifts and potentially alters biological invasions. The invasion of European earthworm species across northern North America has severe impacts on native ecosystems. Given the long and cold winters in that region that to date supposedly have slowed earthworm invasion, future warming is hypothesized to accelerate earthworm invasions into yet non-invaded regions. Alternatively, warming-induced reductions in soil water content (SWC) can also decrease earthworm performance. We tested these hypotheses in a field warming experiment at two sites in Minnesota, USA by sampling earthworms in closed and open canopy in three temperature treatments in 2010 and 2012. Structural equation modeling revealed that detrimental warming effects on earthworm densities and biomass could indeed be partly explained by warming-induced reductions in SWC. The direction of warming effects depended on the current average SWC: warming had neutral to positive effects at high SWC, whereas the opposite was true at low SWC. Our results suggest that warming limits the invasion of earthworms in northern North America by causing less favorable soil abiotic conditions, unless warming is accompanied by increased and temporally even distributions of rainfall sufficient to offset greater water losses from higher evapotranspiration.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Justh, H. L.; Kasting, J. F.
2001-12-01
Images from the Mariner, Viking and Mars Global Surveyor missions have shown geologic features on the Martian surface that seem to indicate an earlier period of hydrologic activity. Many researchers have suggested that the early Martian climate was more Earth-like with a Ts of 273 K or higher. The presence of liquid water would require a greenhouse effect much larger than needed at present since S0 is 25% lower 3.8 billion years ago when the channels are thought to have formed. Research into the effects of CO2 clouds upon the climate of early Mars have yielded results that would not effectively warm the surface to the temperature needed to account for the presence of liquid water. Forget and Pierrehumbert (Science, 1997) showed that large crystals of CO2 ice in clouds that form in the upper troposphere would produce a strong warming effect. Obtaining mean surface temperatures above 273 K would require 100% cloud cover, a condition that is unrealistic for early Mars. It has also been shown that any reduction in cloud cover makes it difficult to achieve warm Martian surface temperatures except at high pressures. CO2 clouds could also cool the Martian surface if they were low and optically thick. CO2 ice may be hard to nucleate, leading to the formation of very large particles (Glandorf, private communication). CH4 has been suggested as an important greenhouse gas on the early Earth. This has led us to look at CH4 as a potential solution to the early Mars climate issue. To investigate the possible warming effect of CH4, we utilized a modified, one-dimensional, radiative-convective climate model that has been used in previous studies of the early Martian climate. New calculations of the effects of CH4 upon the early Martian climate will be presented. The use of CH4 to warm the surface of early Mars does not necessarily imply the presence of life on Mars. Abiotic sources of CH4, such as serpentinization of ultramafic rocks, could supply the concentrations needed to warm
Methane Cycling in a Warming Wetland
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Noyce, G. L.; Megonigal, P.; Rich, R.; Kirwan, M. L.; Herbert, E. R.
2017-12-01
Coastal wetlands are global hotspots of carbon (C) storage, but the future of these systems is uncertain. In June 2016, we initiated an in-situ, active, whole-ecosystem warming experiment in the Smithsonian's Global Change Research Wetland to quantify how warming and elevated CO2 affect the stability of coastal wetland soil C pools and contemporary rates of C sequestration. Transects are located in two plant communities, dominated by C3 sedges or C4 grasses. The experiment has a gradient design with air and soil warming treatments ranging from ambient to +5.1 °C and heated plots consistently maintain their target temperature year-round. In April 2017, an elevated CO2 treatment was crossed with temperature in the C3community. Ongoing measurements include soil elevation, C fluxes, porewater chemistry and redox potential, and above- and below-ground growth and biomass. In both years, warming increased methane (CH4) emissions (measured at 3-4 week intervals) from spring through fall at the C3 site, but had little effect on emissions from the C4 site. Winter (Dec-Mar) emissions showed no treatment effect. Stable isotope analysis of dissolved CH4 and DIC also indicated that warming had differing effects on CH4 pathways in the two vegetation communities. To better understand temperature effects on rates of CH4 production and oxidation, 1 m soil cores were collected from control areas of the marsh in summer 2017 and incubated at temperatures ranging from 4 °C to 35 °C. Warming increased CH4 production and oxidation rates in surface samples and oxidation rates in the rooting zone samples from both sites, but temperature responses in deep (1 m) soil samples were minimal. In the surface and rooting zone samples, production rates were also consistently higher in C3 soils compared to C4 soils, but, contrary to our expectations, the temperature response was stronger in the C4 soils. However, oxidation in C3 rooting zone samples did have a strong temperature response. The
Who decides who has won the bet? Total and Anthropogenic Warming Indices
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haustein, K.; Allen, M. R.; Otto, F. E. L.; Schmidt, A.; Frame, D. J.; Forster, P.; Matthews, D.
2016-12-01
An extension of the idea of betting markets as a means of revealing opinions about future climate are climate policies indexed to geophysical indicators: for example, to ensure net zero global carbon dioxide emissions by the time anthropogenic warming reaches 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial, given about 1 degree of warming already, emissions must fall, on average, by 20% of their current value for every tenth of a degree of anthropogenic warming from now on. In principle, policies conditioned on some measure of attributable warming are robust to uncertainty in the global climate response: the risk of a higher or lower response than expected is borne by those affected by climate change mitigation policy rather than those affected by climate change impacts, as is the case with emission targets for specific years based on "current understanding" of the response. To implement any indexed policy, or to agree payout terms for any bet on future climate, requires consensus on the definition of the index: how is it calculated, and who is responsible for releasing it? The global mean surface temperature of the current decade relative to pre-industrial may vary by 0.1 degree or more depending on precisely what is measured, what is defined as pre-industrial, and the treatment of regions with sparse data coverage in earlier years. Indices defined using different conventions, however, are all expected to evolve very similarly over the coming decades, so agreeing on a conservative, traceable index such as HadCRUT is more important than debating the "true" global temperature. A more important question is whether indexed policies and betting markets should focus on total warming, including natural and anthropogenic drivers and internal variability, or an Anthropogenic Warming Index (AWI) representing an unbiased estimate of warming attributable to human influence to date. We propose a simple AWI based solely on observed temperatures and global natural and anthropogenic forcing
Amazon Basin climate under global warming: the role of the sea surface temperature.
Harris, Phil P; Huntingford, Chris; Cox, Peter M
2008-05-27
The Hadley Centre coupled climate-carbon cycle model (HadCM3LC) predicts loss of the Amazon rainforest in response to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the atmospheric component of HadCM3LC is used to assess the role of simulated changes in mid-twenty-first century sea surface temperature (SST) in Amazon Basin climate change. When the full HadCM3LC SST anomalies (SSTAs) are used, the atmosphere model reproduces the Amazon Basin climate change exhibited by HadCM3LC, including much of the reduction in Amazon Basin rainfall. This rainfall change is shown to be the combined effect of SSTAs in both the tropical Atlantic and the Pacific, with roughly equal contributions from each basin. The greatest rainfall reduction occurs from May to October, outside of the mature South American monsoon (SAM) season. This dry season response is the combined effect of a more rapid warming of the tropical North Atlantic relative to the south, and warm SSTAs in the tropical east Pacific. Conversely, a weak enhancement of mature SAM season rainfall in response to Atlantic SST change is suppressed by the atmospheric response to Pacific SST. This net wet season response is sufficient to prevent dry season soil moisture deficits from being recharged through the SAM season, leading to a perennial soil moisture reduction and an associated 30% reduction in annual Amazon Basin net primary productivity (NPP). A further 23% NPP reduction occurs in response to a 3.5 degrees C warmer air temperature associated with a global mean SST warming.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Radenac, Marie-Hélène; Léger, Fabien; Messié, Monique; Dutrieux, Pierre; Menkes, Christophe; Eldin, Gérard
2016-04-01
Satellite observations of wind, sea level and derived currents, sea surface temperature (SST), and chlorophyll are used to expand our understanding of the physical and biological variability of the ocean surface north of New Guinea. Based on scarce cruise and mooring data, previous studies differentiated a trade wind situation (austral winter) when the New Guinea Coastal Current (NGCC) flows northwestward and a northwest monsoon situation (austral summer) when a coastal upwelling develops and the NGCC reverses. This circulation pattern is confirmed by satellite observations, except in Vitiaz Strait where the surface northwestward flow persists. We find that intraseasonal and seasonal time scale variations explain most of the variance north of New Guinea. SST and chlorophyll variabilities are mainly driven by two processes: penetration of Solomon Sea waters and coastal upwelling. In the trade wind situation, the NGCC transports cold Solomon Sea waters through Vitiaz Strait in a narrow vein hugging the coast. Coastal upwelling is generated in westerly wind situations (westerly wind event, northwest monsoon). Highly productive coastal waters are advected toward the equator and, during some westerly wind events, toward the eastern part of the warm pool. During El Niño, coastal upwelling events and northward penetration of Solomon Sea waters combine to influence SST and chlorophyll anomalies.
Do Southern Ocean Cloud Feedbacks Matter for 21st Century Warming?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Frey, W. R.; Maroon, E. A.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Kay, J. E.
2017-12-01
Cloud phase improvements in a state-of-the-art climate model produce a large 1.5 K increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, the surface warming in response to instantaneously doubled CO2) via extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks. Here we show that the same model improvements produce only a small surface warming increase in a realistic 21st century emissions scenario. The small 21st century warming increase is attributed to extratropical ocean heat uptake. Southern Ocean mean-state circulation takes up heat while a slowdown in North Atlantic circulation acts as a feedback to slow surface warming. Persistent heat uptake by extratropical oceans implies that extratropical cloud biases may not be as important to 21st century warming as biases in other regions. Observational constraints on cloud phase and shortwave radiation that produce a large ECS increase do not imply large changes in 21st century warming.
Sejas, Sergio A.; Albert, Oriene S.; Cai, Ming; ...
2014-12-02
One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heatmore » flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Furthermore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Sejas, Sergio A.; Albert, Oriene S.; Cai, Ming
One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heatmore » flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Furthermore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea.« less
Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO2 concentrations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Good, Peter; Lowe, Jason A.; Andrews, Timothy; Wiltshire, Andrew; Chadwick, Robin; Ridley, Jeff K.; Menary, Matthew B.; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Dufresne, Jean Louis; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Schaller, Nathalie; Shiogama, Hideo
2015-02-01
When considering adaptation measures and global climate mitigation goals, stakeholders need regional-scale climate projections, including the range of plausible warming rates. To assist these stakeholders, it is important to understand whether some locations may see disproportionately high or low warming from additional forcing above targets such as 2 K (ref. ). There is a need to narrow uncertainty in this nonlinear warming, which requires understanding how climate changes as forcings increase from medium to high levels. However, quantifying and understanding regional nonlinear processes is challenging. Here we show that regional-scale warming can be strongly superlinear to successive CO2 doublings, using five different climate models. Ensemble-mean warming is superlinear over most land locations. Further, the inter-model spread tends to be amplified at higher forcing levels, as nonlinearities grow--especially when considering changes per kelvin of global warming. Regional nonlinearities in surface warming arise from nonlinearities in global-mean radiative balance, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, surface snow/ice cover and evapotranspiration. For robust adaptation and mitigation advice, therefore, potentially avoidable climate change (the difference between business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios) and unavoidable climate change (change under strong mitigation scenarios) may need different analysis methods.
Does the climate warming hiatus exist over the Tibetan Plateau?
Duan, Anmin; Xiao, Zhixiang
2015-01-01
The surface air temperature change over the Tibetan Plateau is determined based on historical observations from 1980 to 2013. In contrast to the cooling trend in the rest of China, and the global warming hiatus post-1990s, an accelerated warming trend has appeared over the Tibetan Plateau during 1998–2013 (0.25 °C decade−1), compared with that during 1980–1997 (0.21 °C decade−1). Further results indicate that, to some degree, such an accelerated warming trend might be attributable to cloud–radiation feedback. The increased nocturnal cloud over the northern Tibetan Plateau would warm the nighttime temperature via enhanced atmospheric back-radiation, while the decreased daytime cloud over the southern Tibetan Plateau would induce the daytime sunshine duration to increase, resulting in surface air temperature warming. Meanwhile, the in situ surface wind speed has recovered gradually since 1998, and thus the energy concentration cannot explain the accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau after the 1990s. It is suggested that cloud–radiation feedback may play an important role in modulating the recent accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau. PMID:26329678
Does the climate warming hiatus exist over the Tibetan Plateau?
Duan, Anmin; Xiao, Zhixiang
2015-09-02
The surface air temperature change over the Tibetan Plateau is determined based on historical observations from 1980 to 2013. In contrast to the cooling trend in the rest of China, and the global warming hiatus post-1990s, an accelerated warming trend has appeared over the Tibetan Plateau during 1998-2013 (0.25 °C decade(-1)), compared with that during 1980-1997 (0.21 °C decade(-1)). Further results indicate that, to some degree, such an accelerated warming trend might be attributable to cloud-radiation feedback. The increased nocturnal cloud over the northern Tibetan Plateau would warm the nighttime temperature via enhanced atmospheric back-radiation, while the decreased daytime cloud over the southern Tibetan Plateau would induce the daytime sunshine duration to increase, resulting in surface air temperature warming. Meanwhile, the in situ surface wind speed has recovered gradually since 1998, and thus the energy concentration cannot explain the accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau after the 1990s. It is suggested that cloud-radiation feedback may play an important role in modulating the recent accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau.
Atmospheric signature of the Agulhas current
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stela Nkwinkwa Njouodo, Arielle; Koseki, Shunya; Rouault, Mathieu; Keenlyside, Noel
2017-04-01
Satellite observation and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) are used to map the influence of the Agulhas current on local annual precipitation in Southern Africa. The pressure adjustment mechanism is applied over the Agulhas current region. Results unfold that the narrow band of precipitation above the Agulhas Current is collocated with surface wind convergence, sea surface temperature (SST) Laplacian and sea level pressure (SLP) Laplacian. Relationship between SLP Laplacian and wind convergence is found, with 0.54 correlation coefficient statistically significant. In the free troposphere, the band of precipitation above the Agulhas current is collocated with the wind divergence and the upward motion of wind velocity. The warm waters from the Agulhas current can influence local precipitation.
A warmer and wetter solution for early Mars and the challenges with transient warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ramirez, Ramses M.
2017-11-01
The climate of early Mars has been hotly debated for decades. Although most investigators believe that the geology indicates the presence of surface water, disagreement has persisted regarding how warm and wet the surface must have been and how long such conditions may have existed. Although the geologic evidence is most easily explained by a persistently warm climate, the perceived difficulty that climate models have in generating warm surface conditions has seeded various models that assume a cold and glaciated early Mars punctuated by transient warming episodes. However, I use a single-column radiative convective climate model to show that it is relatively more straightforward to satisfy warm and relatively non-glaciated early Mars conditions, requiring only ∼1% H2 and 3 bar CO2 or ∼20% H2 and 0.55 bar CO2. In contrast, the reflectivity of surface ice greatly increases the difficulty to transiently warm an initially frozen surface. Surface pressure thresholds required for warm conditions increase ∼10 - 60% for transient warming models, depending on ice cover fraction. No warm solution is possible for ice cover fractions exceeding 40%, 70%, and 85% for mixed snow/ice and 25%, 35%, and 49% for fresher snow/ice at H2 concentrations of 3%, 10%, and 20%, respectively. If high temperatures (298-323 K) were required to produce the observed surface clay amounts on a transiently warm early Mars (Bishop et al), I show that such temperatures would have required surface pressures that exceed available paleopressure constraints for nearly all H2 concentrations considered (1-20%). I then argue that a warm and semi-arid climate remains the simplest and most logical solution to Mars paleoclimate.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Yentsch, C. S.; Phinney, D. A.
1985-01-01
The term 'ring' is generally used in the case of a subdivision of ocean eddies. in the present investigation, it denotes mesoscale features which are spawned by the Gulf Stream. This investigation is concerned with the mechanism involved in the regulation of the growth of phytoplankton by the physical oceanographic features of rings. Gulf Stream rings were first observed by Parker (1971) and Fuglister (1972) as a result of extensive temperature measurements from ships in the Gulf Stream. Attention is given to changes in density boundaries associated with the rotation of rings, a synthetic model of a newly formed warm core ring, convection-stabilization, the role of light, the influence of convective overturn in adding nutrients to surface waters of warm core rings, and two major areas which require study.
Eisenhauer, Nico; Stefanski, Artur; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Rice, Karen; Rich, Roy; Reich, Peter B.
2014-01-01
Climate change causes species range shifts and potentially alters biological invasions. The invasion of European earthworm species across northern North America has severe impacts on native ecosystems. Given the long and cold winters in that region that to date supposedly have slowed earthworm invasion, future warming is hypothesized to accelerate earthworm invasions into yet non-invaded regions. Alternatively, warming-induced reductions in soil water content (SWC) can also decrease earthworm performance. We tested these hypotheses in a field warming experiment at two sites in Minnesota, USA by sampling earthworms in closed and open canopy in three temperature treatments in 2010 and 2012. Structural equation modeling revealed that detrimental warming effects on earthworm densities and biomass could indeed be partly explained by warming-induced reductions in SWC. The direction of warming effects depended on the current average SWC: warming had neutral to positive effects at high SWC, whereas the opposite was true at low SWC. Our results suggest that warming limits the invasion of earthworms in northern North America by causing less favorable soil abiotic conditions, unless warming is accompanied by increased and temporally even distributions of rainfall sufficient to offset greater water losses from higher evapotranspiration. PMID:25363633
Could cirrus clouds have warmed early Mars?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ramirez, Ramses M.; Kasting, James F.
2017-01-01
The presence of the ancient valley networks on Mars indicates that the climate at 3.8 Ga was warm enough to allow substantial liquid water to flow on the martian surface for extended periods of time. However, the mechanism for producing this warming continues to be debated. One hypothesis is that Mars could have been kept warm by global cirrus cloud decks in a CO2sbnd H2O atmosphere containing at least 0.25 bar of CO2 (Urata and Toon, 2013). Initial warming from some other process, e.g., impacts, would be required to make this model work. Those results were generated using the CAM 3-D global climate model. Here, we use a single-column radioactive-convective climate model to further investigate the cirrus cloud warming hypothesis. Our calculations indicate that cirrus cloud decks could have produced global mean surface temperatures above freezing, but only if cirrus cloud cover approaches ∼75 - 100% and if other cloud properties (e.g., height, optical depth, particle size) are chosen favorably. However, at more realistic cirrus cloud fractions, or if cloud parameters are not optimal, cirrus clouds do not provide the necessary warming, suggesting that other greenhouse mechanisms are needed.
Future Warming Patterns Linked to Today's Climate Variability.
Dai, Aiguo
2016-01-11
The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models' ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21(st) century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today's climate, with areas of larger variations during 1950-1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21(st) century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950-2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21(st) century in models and in the real world. They support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.
Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Samaniego, L.; Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Rakovec, O.; Pan, M.; Zink, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Marx, A.
2018-05-01
Anthropogenic warming is anticipated to increase soil moisture drought in the future. However, projections are accompanied by large uncertainty due to varying estimates of future warming. Here, using an ensemble of hydrological and land-surface models, forced with bias-corrected downscaled general circulation model output, we estimate the impacts of 1-3 K global mean temperature increases on soil moisture droughts in Europe. Compared to the 1.5 K Paris target, an increase of 3 K—which represents current projected temperature change—is found to increase drought area by 40% (±24%), affecting up to 42% (±22%) more of the population. Furthermore, an event similar to the 2003 drought is shown to become twice as frequent; thus, due to their increased occurrence, events of this magnitude will no longer be classified as extreme. In the absence of effective mitigation, Europe will therefore face unprecedented increases in soil moisture drought, presenting new challenges for adaptation across the continent.
A Contribution by Ice Nuclei to Global Warming
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zhang, Minghua; Hou, Arthur Y.; Xie, Shaocheng; Lang, Stephen; Li, Xiaowen; Starr, David O.; Li, Xiaofan
2009-01-01
Ice nuclei (IN) significantly affect clouds via supercooled droplets, that in turn modulate atmospheric radiation and thus climate change. Since the IN effect is relatively strong in stratiform clouds but weak in convective ones, the overall effect depends on the ratio of stratiform to convective cloud amount. In this paper, 10 years of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite data are analyzed to confirm that stratiform precipitation fraction increases with increasing latitude, which implies that the IN effect is stronger at higher latitudes. To quantitatively evaluate the IN effect versus latitude, large-scale forcing data from ten field campaigns are used to drive a CRM (cloud-resolving model) to generate longterm cloud simulations. As revealed in the simulations, the increase in the net downward radiative flux at the TOA (top of the atmosphere) from doubling the current IN concentrations is larger at higher latitude, which is attributed to the meridional tendency in the stratiform precipitation fraction. Surface warming from doubling the IN concentrations, based on the radiative balance of the globe, is compared with that from anthropogenic COZ . It is found that the former effect is stronger than the latter in middle and high latitudes but not in the Tropics. With regard to the impact of IN on global warming, there are two factors to consider: the radiative effect from increasing the IN concentration and the increase in IN concentration itself. The former relies on cloud ensembles and thus varies mainly with latitude. In contrast, the latter relies on IN sources (e.g., the land surface distribution) and thus varies not only with latitude but also longitude. Global desertification and industrialization provide clues on the geographic variation of the increase in IN concentration since pre-industrial times. Thus, their effect on global warming can be inferred and then be compared with observations. A general match in geographic and seasonal
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Makarim, S.; Liu, Z.; Yu, W.; Yan, X.; Sprintall, J.
2016-12-01
The global warming slowdown indicated by a slower warming rate at the surface layer accompanied by stronger heat transport into the deeper layers has been explored in the Indian Ocean. Although the mechanisms of the global warming slowdown are still under warm debate, some clues have been recognized that decadal La Nina like-pattern induced decadal cooling in the Pacific Ocean and generated an increase of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport in 2004-2010. However, how the ITF spreading to the interior of the Indian Ocean and the impact of ITF changes on the Indian Ocean, in particular its water mass transformation and current system are still unknown. To this end, we analyzed thermohaline structure and current system at different depths in the Indian Ocean both during and just before the global warming slowdown period using the ORAS4 and ARGO dataset. Here, we found the new edge of ITF at off Sumatra presumably as northward deflection of ITF Lombok Strait, and The Monsoon Onset Monitoring and Social Ecology Impact (MOMSEI) and Java Upwelling Variation Observation (JUVO) dataset confirmed this evident. An isopycnal mixing method initially proposed by Du et al. (2013) is adopted to quantify the spreading of ITF water in the Indian Ocean, and therefore the impacts of ITF changes on the variation of the Agulhas Current, Leuween Current, Bay of Bengal Water. This study also prevailed the fresher salinity in the Indian Ocean during the slowdown warming period were not only contributed by stronger transport of the ITF, but also by freshening Arabian Sea and infiltrating Antartic Intermediate Water (AAIW).
Changes in ENSO amplitude under climate warming and cooling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Yingying; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai
2018-05-01
The response of ENSO amplitude to climate warming and cooling is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in which the warming and cooling scenarios are designed by adding heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign onto the ocean surface, respectively. Results show that the warming induces an increase of the ENSO amplitude but the cooling gives rise to a decrease of the ENSO amplitude, and these changes are robust in statistics. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that the increasing (decreasing) SST tendency under climate warming (cooling) is mainly due to an enhancement (weakening) of dynamical feedback processes over the equatorial Pacific, including zonal advective (ZA) feedback, meridional advective (MA) feedback, thermocline (TH) feedback, and Ekman (EK) feedback. As the climate warms, a wind anomaly of the same magnitude across the equatorial Pacific can induce a stronger zonal current change in the east (i.e., a stronger ZA feedback), which in turn produces a greater weakening of upwelling (i.e., a stronger EK feedback) and thus a larger thermocline change (i.e., a stronger TH feedback). In response to the climate warming, in addition, the MA feedback is also strengthened due to an enhancement of the meridional SST gradient around the equator resulting from a weakening of the subtropical cells (STCs). It should be noted that the weakened STCs itself has a negative contribution to the change of the MA feedback which, however, appears to be secondary. And vice versa for the cooling case. Bjerknes linear stability (BJ) index is also evaluated for the linear stability of ENSO, with remarkably larger (smaller) BJ index found for the warming (cooling) case.
Kephart, Rebecca; Johnson, Anna; Sapkota, Avi; Stalder, Kenneth; McGlone, John
2014-04-11
This study was conducted July of 2012 in Iowa, in WARM (<26.7 °C) and HOT (≥26.7 °C) weather. Four sprinkling methods were compared, with one treatment being randomly assigned to each load: control- no sprinkling (not applied in HOT weather), pigs only, bedding only, or pigs and bedding. Experiment 1 used 51 loads in WARM- and 86 loads in HOT weather to determine sprinkling effects on pig measures (surface temperature, vocalizations, slips and falls, and stress signs). Experiment 2 used 82 loads in WARM- and 54 loads in HOT weather to determine the sprinkling effects on transport losses (non-ambulatory, dead, and total transport losses). Experiment 1 found that, in WARM weather, there were no differences between sprinkling treatments for surface temperature, vocalizations, or slips and falls (p ≥ 0.18). However, stress signs were 2% greater when sprinkling pigs- or bedding only- compared to control (p = 0.03). Experiment 2 found that, in WARM and HOT weather, sprinkling did not affect non-ambulatory, dead, or total transport losses (p ≥ 0.18). Although the current study did not find any observed sprinkling effects for pig measures or transport losses it is extremely important to note that the inference space of this study is relatively small, so further studies should be conducted to see if these results are applicable to other geographical regions and seasons.
Xiu, Peng; Chai, Fei; Curchitser, Enrique N; Castruccio, Frederic S
2018-02-12
Coastal upwelling ecosystems are among the most productive ecosystems in the world, meaning that their response to climate change is of critical importance. Our understanding of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems is largely limited to the open ocean, mainly because coastal upwelling is poorly reproduced by current earth system models. Here, a high-resolution model is used to examine the response of nutrients and plankton dynamics to future climate change in the California Current System (CCS). The results show increased upwelling intensity associated with stronger alongshore winds in the coastal region, and enhanced upper-ocean stratification in both the CCS and open ocean. Warming of the open ocean forces isotherms downwards, where they make contact with water masses with higher nutrient concentrations, thereby enhancing the nutrient flux to the deep source waters of the CCS. Increased winds and eddy activity further facilitate upward nutrient transport to the euphotic zone. However, the plankton community exhibits a complex and nonlinear response to increased nutrient input, as the food web dynamics tend to interact differently. This analysis highlights the difficulty in understanding how the marine ecosystem responds to a future warming climate, given to range of relevant processes operating at different scales.
Observational constraints on monomial warm inflation
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Visinelli, Luca, E-mail: Luca.Visinelli@studio.unibo.it
Warm inflation is, as of today, one of the best motivated mechanisms for explaining an early inflationary period. In this paper, we derive and analyze the current bounds on warm inflation with a monomial potential U ∝ φ {sup p} , using the constraints from the PLANCK mission. In particular, we discuss the parameter space of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r and the potential coupling λ of the monomial warm inflation in terms of the number of e-folds. We obtain that the theoretical tensor-to-scalar ratio r ∼ 10{sup −8} is much smaller than the current observational constrain r ∼< 0.12, despitemore » a relatively large value of the field excursion Δ φ ∼ 0.1 M {sub Pl}. Warm inflation thus eludes the Lyth bound set on the tensor-to-scalar ratio by the field excursion.« less
Liquid Cooling/Warming Garment
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Koscheyev, Victor S.; Leon, Gloria R.; Dancisak, Michael J.
2010-01-01
The NASA liquid cooling/ventilating garment (LCVG) currently in use was developed over 40 years ago. With the commencement of a greater number of extra-vehicular activity (EVA) procedures with the construction of the International Space Station, problems of astronaut comfort, as well as the reduction of the consumption of energy, became more salient. A shortened liquid cooling/warming garment (SLCWG) has been developed based on physiological principles comparing the efficacy of heat transfer of different body zones; the capability of blood to deliver heat; individual muscle and fat body composition as a basis for individual thermal profiles to customize the zonal sections of the garment; and the development of shunts to minimize or redirect the cooling/warming loop for different environmental conditions, physical activity levels, and emergency situations. The SLCWG has been designed and completed, based on extensive testing in rest, exercise, and antiorthostatic conditions. It is more energy efficient than the LCVG currently used by NASA. The total length of tubing in the SLCWG is approximately 35 percent less and the weight decreased by 20 percent compared to the LCVG. The novel features of the innovation are: 1. The efficiency of the SLCWG to maintain thermal status under extreme changes in body surface temperatures while using significantly less tubing than the LCVG. 2. The construction of the garment based on physiological principles of heat transfer. 3. The identification of the body areas that are most efficient in heat transfer. 4. The inclusion of a hood as part of the garment. 5. The lesser consumption of energy.
Generation of spin currents by surface plasmon resonance
Uchida, K.; Adachi, H.; Kikuchi, D.; Ito, S.; Qiu, Z.; Maekawa, S.; Saitoh, E.
2015-01-01
Surface plasmons, free-electron collective oscillations in metallic nanostructures, provide abundant routes to manipulate light–electron interactions that can localize light energy and alter electromagnetic field distributions at subwavelength scales. The research field of plasmonics thus integrates nano-photonics with electronics. In contrast, electronics is also entering a new era of spintronics, where spin currents play a central role in driving devices. However, plasmonics and spin-current physics have so far been developed independently. Here we report the generation of spin currents by surface plasmon resonance. Using Au nanoparticles embedded in Pt/BiY2Fe5O12 bilayer films, we show that, when the Au nanoparticles fulfill the surface-plasmon-resonance conditions, spin currents are generated across the Pt/BiY2Fe5O12 interface. This spin-current generation cannot be explained by conventional heating effects, requiring us to introduce nonequilibrium magnons excited by surface-plasmon-induced evanescent electromagnetic fields in BiY2Fe5O12. This plasmonic spin pumping integrates surface plasmons with spin-current physics, opening the door to plasmonic spintronics. PMID:25569821
Global lake response to the recent warming hiatus
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Winslow, Luke A.; Leach, Taylor H.; Rose, Kevin C.
2018-05-01
Understanding temporal variability in lake warming rates over decadal scales is important for understanding observed change in aquatic systems. We analyzed a global dataset of lake surface water temperature observations (1985‑2009) to examine how lake temperatures responded to a recent global air temperature warming hiatus (1998‑2012). Prior to the hiatus (1985‑1998), surface water temperatures significantly increased at an average rate of 0.532 °C decade‑1 (±0.214). In contrast, water temperatures did not change significantly during the hiatus (average rate ‑0.087 °C decade‑1 ±0.223). Overall, 83% of lakes in our dataset (129 of 155) had faster warming rates during the pre-hiatus period than during the hiatus period. These results demonstrate that lakes have exhibited decadal-scale variability in warming rates coherent with global air temperatures and represent an independent line of evidence for the recent warming hiatus. Our analyses provide evidence that lakes are sentinels of broader climatological processes and indicate that warming rates based on datasets where a large proportion of observations were collected during the hiatus period may underestimate longer-term trends.
Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012-2015
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Williams, P.; Seager, R.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Cook, B.; Smerdon, J. E.; Cook, E. R.
2015-12-01
California is currently in its fourth year of a drought that has caused record-breaking rates of ground-water extraction, fallowed agricultural fields, changes to water-use policy, dangrously low lake levels, and ecological disturbances such as large wildfires and bark-beetle outbreaks. A common and important question is: to what degree can the severity of this drought in California, or of any drought globally, be blamed on human-caused global warming? Here we present the most comprehensive accounting of the natural and anthropogenic contributions to drought variability to date, and we provide an in-depth evaluation of the recent extreme drought in California. A suite of climate datasets and multiple representations of atmospheric moisture demand are used to calculate many estimates of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for near-surface soil moisture, across California from 1901-2014 at high spatial resolution. Based on the ensemble of calculations, California drought conditions were record-breaking in 2014, but probably not record-breaking in 2012-2014, contrary to prior findings. Regionally, the 2012-2014 drought was record-breaking in the agriculturally important southern Central Valley and highly populated coastal areas. Contributions of individual climate variables to recent drought are also examined, including the temperature component associated with anthropogenic warming. Precipitation is the primary driver of drought variability but anthropogenic warming is estimated to have accounted for 8-27% of the observed drought anomaly in 2012-2014 and 5-18% in 2014. Analyses will be updated through 2015 for this presentation. Although natural climate variability has often masked the background effects of warming on drought, the background effect is becoming increasingly detectable and important, particularly by increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts. The dramatic effects of the current drought in California, combined
Early 20th Century Arctic Warming Intensified by Pacific and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tokinaga, H.; Xie, S. P.; Mukougawa, H.
2017-12-01
We investigate the influence of Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability on the Arctic temperature, with a particular focus on the early 20th century Arctic warming. Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing than at present. We find that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability is the major driver for the early 20th century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early Arctic warming is associated with the cold-to-warm phase shifts of Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal variability modes, a SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal and Atlantic multidecadal oscillations. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air to the North American Arctic. Coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, cold-to-warm phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region.
Hiatus on the upward staircase of global warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xie, S. P.; Kosaka, Y.
2016-12-01
Since the 19th century, global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has risen in staircase-like stages due to contributions from both radiative forcing and internal variability. Our earlier study showed that tropical Pacific variability, specifically the La Nina-like cooling, caused the current hiatus of global warming. We have extended the Pacific Ocean-Global Atmosphere (POGA) pacemaker experiment back to the late 19th century, by restoring tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies towards the observed history. POGA reproduces annual-mean GMST variability with high correlation. We quantify relative contributions from the radiative forcing and tropical Pacific variability for various epochs of the staircase. Beyond the global mean, POGA also captures observed regional trends of surface temperature for these periods, especially over the tropical Indian Ocean, Indian subcontinent, North and South Pacific and North America. The POGA effect for the recent hiatus is comparable in magnitude with that at the beginning of the 20th century, but lasts the longest in duration over the past 150 years. The attendant strengthening of the Pacific trade winds since the 1990s is unprecedented on the instrumental record. To the extent that POGA captures much of the internal variability in GMST, we can infer radiatively forced GMST response. This method has the advantage of being independent of the model's radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. While raw data show a warming of 0.9 degree C for the recent five-year period of 2010-2014 relative to 1900, our new calculation yields a much higher anthropogenic warming of 1.2 C after correcting for the internal variability effect. This indicates that the task is more challenging than thought to implement the Paris consensus of limiting global average temperature change to below 2 C above preindustrial levels.
Tropical Pacific variability as a key pacemaker of the global warming staircase
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kosaka, Y.; Xie, S. P.
2016-12-01
Global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has increased since the 19th century with notable interdecadal accelerations and slowdowns, forming the global-warming "staircase". The last step of this staircase is the surface warming slowdown since the late 1990s, for which the transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) from a positive to negative state has been suggested as the leading mechanism. To examine the role of IPO in the entire warming staircase, a long pacemaker experiment is performed with a coupled climate model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution since the late 19th century. The pacemaker experiment successfully reproduces the staircase-like global warming remarkably well since 1900. Without the tropical Pacific effect, the same model produces a continual warming from the 1900s to the 1960 followed by rapid warming. The successful reproduction identifies the tropical Pacific decadal variability as a key pacemaker of the GMST staircase. We further propose a method to remove internal variability from observed GMST changes for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Tingting; Sun, Fubao; Ge, Quansheng; Kleidon, Axel; Liu, Wenbin
2018-02-01
Although gridded air temperature data sets share much of the same observations, different rates of warming can be detected due to different approaches employed for considering elevation signatures in the interpolation processes. Here we examine the influence of varying spatiotemporal distribution of sites on surface warming in the long-term trend and over the recent warming hiatus period in China during 1951-2015. A suspicious cooling trend in raw interpolated air temperature time series is found in the 1950s, and 91% of which can be explained by the artificial elevation changes introduced by the interpolation process. We define the regression slope relating temperature difference and elevation difference as the bulk lapse rate of -5.6°C/km, which tends to be higher (-8.7°C/km) in dry regions but lower (-2.4°C/km) in wet regions. Compared to independent experimental observations, we find that the estimated monthly bulk lapse rates work well to capture the elevation bias. Significant improvement can be achieved in adjusting the interpolated original temperature time series using the bulk lapse rate. The results highlight that the developed bulk lapse rate is useful to account for the elevation signature in the interpolation of site-based surface air temperature to gridded data sets and is necessary for avoiding elevation bias in climate change studies.
Temperature Data Shows Warming in 2001
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
2002-01-01
TThe figure above depicts how much air temperatures near the Earth's surface changed relative to the global mean temperature from 1951 to 1980. NASA researchers used maps of urban areas derived from city lights data to account for the 'heat island' effect of cities. The red and orange colors show that temperatures are warmer in most regions of the world when compared to the 1951 to 1980 'normal' temperatures. Warming around the world has been widespread, but it is not present everywhere. The largest warming is in Northern Canada, Alaska and Siberia, as indicated by the deeper red colors. The lower 48 United States have become warmer recently, but only enough to make the temperatures comparable to what they were in the 1930s. The scale on the bottom of these temperature anomaly images represent degrees in Celsius. The negative numbers represent cooling and the positive numbers depict warming. Overall, the air temperature near the Earth's surface has warmed by 1oF (0.6oC) globally, on average, over the last century. For more information and additional images, read Satellites Shed Light on a Warmer World. Image courtesy Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS).
Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability
Tokinaga, Hiroki; Xie, Shang-Ping; Mukougawa, Hitoshi
2017-01-01
With amplified warming and record sea ice loss, the Arctic is the canary of global warming. The historical Arctic warming is poorly understood, limiting our confidence in model projections. Specifically, Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing. Here, we show that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variability modes is the major driver for the rapid early 20th-century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations successfully reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early 20th-century Arctic warming is associated with positive SST anomalies over the tropical and North Atlantic and a Pacific SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Atmospheric circulation changes are important for the early 20th-century Arctic warming. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air into the North American Arctic. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. Coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, negative-to-positive phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal modes. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region. PMID:28559341
Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tokinaga, Hiroki; Xie, Shang-Ping; Mukougawa, Hitoshi
2017-06-01
With amplified warming and record sea ice loss, the Arctic is the canary of global warming. The historical Arctic warming is poorly understood, limiting our confidence in model projections. Specifically, Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing. Here, we show that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variability modes is the major driver for the rapid early 20th-century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations successfully reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early 20th-century Arctic warming is associated with positive SST anomalies over the tropical and North Atlantic and a Pacific SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Atmospheric circulation changes are important for the early 20th-century Arctic warming. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air into the North American Arctic. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. Coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, negative-to-positive phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal modes. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Xing; Jeong, Su-Jong
2018-02-01
To meet the growing demand for food, land is being managed to be more productive using agricultural intensification practices, such as the use of irrigation. Understanding the specific environmental impacts of irrigation is a critical part of using it as a sustainable way to provide food security. However, our knowledge of irrigation effects on climate is still limited to daytime effects. This is a critical issue to define the effects of irrigation on warming related to greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study shows that irrigation led to an increasing temperature (0.002 °C year-1) by enhancing nighttime warming (0.009 °C year-1) more than daytime cooling (-0.007 °C year-1) during the dry season from 1961-2004 over the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of largest irrigated areas in the world. By implementing irrigation processes in regional climate model simulations, the consistent warming effect of irrigation on nighttime temperatures over the NCP was shown to match observations. The intensive nocturnal warming is attributed to energy storage in the wetter soil during the daytime, which contributed to the nighttime surface warming. Our results suggest that irrigation could locally amplify the warming related to GHGs, and this effect should be taken into account in future climate change projections.
Role of volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols in the recent global surface warming slowdown
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Smith, Doug M.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Eade, Rosie; Hermanson, Leon; Jones, Gareth S.; Scaife, Adam A.; Sheen, Katy L.; Thompson, Vikki
2016-10-01
The rate of global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming has slowed this century despite the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. Climate model experiments show that this slowdown was largely driven by a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), with a smaller external contribution from solar variability, and volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols. The prevailing view is that this negative PDO occurred through internal variability. However, here we show that coupled models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project robustly simulate a negative PDO in response to anthropogenic aerosols implying a potentially important role for external human influences. The recovery from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 also contributed to the slowdown in GMST trends. Our results suggest that a slowdown in GMST trends could have been predicted in advance, and that future reduction of anthropogenic aerosol emissions, particularly from China, would promote a positive PDO and increased GMST trends over the coming years. Furthermore, the overestimation of the magnitude of recent warming by models is substantially reduced by using detection and attribution analysis to rescale their response to external factors, especially cooling following volcanic eruptions. Improved understanding of external influences on climate is therefore crucial to constrain near-term climate predictions.
Sherman, Kenneth; Belkin, Igor M; Friedland, Kevin D; O'Reilly, John; Hyde, Kimberly
2009-06-01
Information on the effects of global climate change on trends in global fisheries biomass yields has been limited in spatial and temporal scale. Results are presented of a global study of the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) changes over the last 25 years on the fisheries yields of 63 large marine ecosystems (LMEs) that annually produce 80% of the world's marine fisheries catches. Warming trends were observed in 61 LMEs around the globe. In 18 of the LMEs, rates of SST warming were two to four times faster during the past 25 years than the globally averaged rates of SST warming reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007. Effects of warming on fisheries biomass yields were greatest in the fast-warming northern Northeast Atlantic LMEs, where increasing trends in fisheries biomass yields were related to zooplankton biomass increases. In contrast, fisheries biomass yields of LMEs in the fast-warming, more southerly reaches of the Northeast Atlantic were declining in response to decreases in zooplankton abundance. The LMEs around the margins of the Indian Ocean, where SSTs were among the world's slowest warming, revealed a consistent pattern of fisheries biomass increases during the past 25 years, driven principally by human need for food security from fisheries resources. As a precautionary approach toward more sustainable fisheries utilization, management measures to limit the total allowable catch through a cap-and-sustain approach are suggested for the developing nations recently fishing heavily on resources of the Agulhas Current, Somali Current, Arabian Sea, and Bay of Bengal LMEs.
Long-terms Change of Sea Surface Temperature in the South China Sea
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Park, Y. G.; Choi, A.
2016-02-01
Using the Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) the long term trend in the South China Sea (SCS) sea surface temperature (SST) between 1950 and 2008 is investigated. Both in winter and summer SST was increased by comparable amounts, but the warming patterns and the governing processes was different. During winter warming rate was greater in the deep basin in the central part, while during summer near the southern part. In winter the net heat flux into the sea was increased and could contribute to the warming. The pattern of the heat flux, however, was different from that of the warming. The heat flux was increased over the coastal area where warming was weaker, but decreased in deeper part where warming was stronger. The northeasterly monsoon wind weakened to lower the shoreward Ekman transport and the sea surface height gradient. The cyclonic gyre that transports cold northern water to south was weakened to warm the ocean. The effect manifested more strongly southward western boundary currents, and subsequently cold advection. In summer the net surface heat flux, however, was reduced and could not contribute to the warming. Over the southern part of the ocean the weakening of the southwesterly summer monsoon reduced southeastward Ekman transport, which is antiparallel to the mean SST gradient. Firstly, southeastward cold advection is reduced to warm the surface near the southeastern boundary of the SCS. The upwelling southeast of Vietnam was also weakened to raise the SST east of Vietnam. Thus the weakening of the wind in each season was the ultimate cause of the warming, but the responses of the ocean that lead to the warming were different.
Global Warming - Are We on Thin Ice?
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tucker, Compton J.
2007-01-01
The evidence for global warming is very conclusive for the past 400-500 years. Prior to the 16th century, proxy surface temperature data are regionally good but lack a global distribution. The speaker will review surface temperature reconstruction based upon ice cores, coral cores, tree rings, deep sea sediments, and bore holes and discuss the controversy surrounding global warming. This will be contrasted with the excellent data we have from the satellite era of earth observations the past 30+ years that enables the quantitative study of climate across earth science disciplines.
Coastal warming and wind-driven upwelling: A global analysis.
Varela, Rubén; Lima, Fernando P; Seabra, Rui; Meneghesso, Claudia; Gómez-Gesteira, Moncho
2018-10-15
Long-term sea surface temperature (SST) warming trends are far from being homogeneous, especially when coastal and ocean locations are compared. Using data from NOAA's AVHRR OISST, we have analyzed sea surface temperature trends over the period 1982-2015 at around 3500 worldwide coastal points and their oceanic counterparts with a spatial resolution of 0.25 arc-degrees. Significant warming was observed at most locations although with important differences between oceanic and coastal points. This is especially patent for upwelling regions, where 92% of the coastal locations showed lower warming trends than at neighboring ocean locations. This result strongly suggests that upwelling has the potential to buffer the effects of global warming nearshore, with wide oceanographic, climatic, and biogeographic implications. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Huqiang; Zhao, Y.; Moise, A.; Ye, H.; Colman, R.; Roff, G.; Zhao, M.
2018-02-01
Significant uncertainty exists in regional climate change projections, particularly for rainfall and other hydro-climate variables. In this study, we conduct a series of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments with different future sea surface temperature (SST) warming simulated by a range of coupled climate models. They allow us to assess the extent to which uncertainty from current coupled climate model rainfall projections can be attributed to their simulated SST warming. Nine CMIP5 model-simulated global SST warming anomalies have been super-imposed onto the current SSTs simulated by the Australian climate model ACCESS1.3. The ACCESS1.3 SST-forced experiments closely reproduce rainfall means and interannual variations as in its own fully coupled experiments. Although different global SST warming intensities explain well the inter-model difference in global mean precipitation changes, at regional scales the SST influence vary significantly. SST warming explains about 20-25% of the patterns of precipitation changes in each of the four/five models in its rainfall projections over the oceans in the Indo-Pacific domain, but there are also a couple of models in which different SST warming explains little of their precipitation pattern changes. The influence is weaker again for rainfall changes over land. Roughly similar levels of contribution can be attributed to different atmospheric responses to SST warming in these models. The weak SST influence in our study could be due to the experimental setup applied: superimposing different SST warming anomalies onto the same SSTs simulated for current climate by ACCESS1.3 rather than directly using model-simulated past and future SSTs. Similar modelling and analysis from other modelling groups with more carefully designed experiments are needed to tease out uncertainties caused by different SST warming patterns, different SST mean biases and different model physical/dynamical responses to the same underlying
Warming off southwestern Japan linked to distributional shifts of subtidal canopy-forming seaweeds.
Tanaka, Kouki; Taino, Seiya; Haraguchi, Hiroko; Prendergast, Gabrielle; Hiraoka, Masanori
2012-11-01
To assess distributional shifts of species in response to recent warming, historical distribution records are the most requisite information. The surface seawater temperature (SST) of Kochi Prefecture, southwestern Japan on the western North Pacific, has significantly risen, being warmed by the Kuroshio Current. Past distributional records of subtidal canopy-forming seaweeds (Laminariales and Fucales) exist at about 10-year intervals from the 1970s, along with detailed SST datasets at several sites along Kochi's >700 km coastline. In order to provide a clear picture of distributional shifts of coastal marine organisms in response to warming SST, we observed the present distribution of seaweeds and analyzed the SST datasets to estimate spatiotemporal SST trends in this coastal region. We present a large increase of 0.3°C/decade in the annual mean SST of this area over the past 40 years. Furthermore, a comparison of the previous and present distributions clearly showed the contraction of temperate species' distributional ranges and expansion of tropical species' distributional ranges in the seaweeds. Although the main temperate kelp Ecklonia (Laminariales) had expanded their distribution during periods of cooler SST, they subsequently declined as the SST warmed. Notably, the warmest SST of the 1997-98 El Niño Southern Oscillation event was the most likely cause of a widespread destruction of the kelp populations; no recovery was found even in the present survey at the formerly habitable sites where warm SSTs have been maintained. Temperate Sargassum spp. (Fucales) that dominated widely in the 1970s also declined in accordance with recent warming SSTs. In contrast, the tropical species, S. ilicifolium, has gradually expanded its distribution to become the most conspicuously dominant among the present observations. Thermal gradients, mainly driven by the warming Kuroshio Current, are presented as an explanation for the successive changes in both temperate and
Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Naumann, G.; Alfieri, L.; Wyser, K.; Mentaschi, L.; Betts, R. A.; Carrao, H.; Spinoni, J.; Vogt, J.; Feyen, L.
2018-04-01
Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply-demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South-eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100-year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kleisner, Kristin M.; Fogarty, Michael J.; McGee, Sally; Hare, Jonathan A.; Moret, Skye; Perretti, Charles T.; Saba, Vincent S.
2017-04-01
The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf marine ecosystem has warmed much faster than the global ocean and it is expected that this enhanced warming will continue through this century. Complex bathymetry and ocean circulation in this region have contributed to biases in global climate model simulations of the Shelf waters. Increasing the resolution of these models results in reductions in the bias of future climate change projections and indicates greater warming than suggested by coarse resolution climate projections. Here, we used a high-resolution global climate model and historical observations of species distributions from a trawl survey to examine changes in the future distribution of suitable thermal habitat for various demersal and pelagic species on the Shelf. Along the southern portion of the shelf (Mid-Atlantic Bight and Georges Bank), a projected 4.1 °C (surface) to 5.0 °C (bottom) warming of ocean temperature from current conditions results in a northward shift of the thermal habitat for the majority of species. While some southern species like butterfish and black sea bass are projected to have moderate losses in suitable thermal habitat, there are potentially significant increases for many species including summer flounder, striped bass, and Atlantic croaker. In the north, in the Gulf of Maine, a projected 3.7 °C (surface) to 3.9 °C (bottom) warming from current conditions results in substantial reductions in suitable thermal habitat such that species currently inhabiting this region may not remain in these waters under continued warming. We project a loss in suitable thermal habitat for key northern species including Acadian redfish, American plaice, Atlantic cod, haddock, and thorney skate, but potential gains for some species including spiny dogfish and American lobster. We illustrate how changes in suitable thermal habitat of important commercially fished species may impact local fishing communities and potentially impact major fishing ports
The recent warming trend in North Greenland
Orsi, Anais J.; Kawamura, Kenji; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Fettweis, Xavier; Box, Jason E.; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Clow, Gary D.; Landais, Amaelle; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.
2017-01-01
The Arctic is among the fastest warming regions on Earth, but it is also one with limited spatial coverage of multidecadal instrumental surface air temperature measurements. Consequently, atmospheric reanalyses are relatively unconstrained in this region, resulting in a large spread of estimated 30 year recent warming trends, which limits their use to investigate the mechanisms responsible for this trend. Here we present a surface temperature reconstruction over 1982–2011 at NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling Project, 51°W, 77°N), in North Greenland, based on the inversion of borehole temperature and inert gas isotope data. We find that NEEM has warmed by 2.7 ± 0.33°C over the past 30 years, from the long-term 1900–1970 average of −28.55 ± 0.29°C. The warming trend is principally caused by an increase in downward longwave heat flux. Atmospheric reanalyses underestimate this trend by 17%, underlining the need for more in situ observations to validate reanalyses.
Some Coolness on Martian Global Warming and Reflections on the Role of Surface Dust
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Richardson, M. I.; Vasavada, A. R.
2007-12-01
Recent comparisons of global snap-shots of Mars' surface taken by the Viking and Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) cameras have been used to suggest that Mars has darkened, and hence has warmed, between the 1970's and 1990's. While this conclusion is not supported by more quantitative analysis of albedo data, the idea of Martian darkening and warming has found its way into the terrestrial climate change debate. Through blogs and other opinion pieces it has been used, both amusingly and disturbingly, to argue that Mars' apparent natural warming should alleviate our concerns about anthropomorphic climate change on Earth. Relating planetary research results to terrestrial analogs is instructive and promotes public understanding, but this example provides a cautionary tale of misinterpretation in this age of politicized science. The dust cycle is the dominant short-term component of the Martian climate. The atmosphere is strongly forced via dust's modification of atmospheric radiative heating rates, while dust loading displays dramatic interannual variability, from background opacity to aperiodic global dust storms. Until recently, the atmospheric component of the dust cycle was better documented than the surface component (which on Mars can be gauged via albedo). But now thanks to the combination of regional imaging, spot thermal infrared spectra, and spot short-wavelength photometry sampled at synoptic time and length scales by MGS, a rich new view of the relationship between specific meteorological phenomena and the patterns of surface dust is emerging. Seasonal cap winds, local, regional, and global dust storms, and monsoonal circulations all redistribute surface dust on large spatial scales, while dust devils are surprisingly shown to be insignificant. Rapid and widespread albedo modification is accomplished by storms that darken relatively bright regions through dust removal, and deposit dust upon largely dust free areas, brightening them. (It is not possible with
Southern Hemisphere and deep-sea warming led deglacial atmospheric CO2 rise and tropical warming.
Stott, Lowell; Timmermann, Axel; Thunell, Robert
2007-10-19
Establishing what caused Earth's largest climatic changes in the past requires a precise knowledge of both the forcing and the regional responses. We determined the chronology of high- and low-latitude climate change at the last glacial termination by radiocarbon dating benthic and planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope and magnesium/calcium records from a marine core collected in the western tropical Pacific. Deep-sea temperatures warmed by approximately 2 degrees C between 19 and 17 thousand years before the present (ky B.P.), leading the rise in atmospheric CO2 and tropical-surface-ocean warming by approximately 1000 years. The cause of this deglacial deep-water warming does not lie within the tropics, nor can its early onset between 19 and 17 ky B.P. be attributed to CO2 forcing. Increasing austral-spring insolation combined with sea-ice albedo feedbacks appear to be the key factors responsible for this warming.
Tropical Intraseasonal Air-Sea Exchanges during the 1997 Pacific Warming
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Sui, C.-H.; Lau, K.-M.; Chou, S.-H.; Wang, Zihou
1999-01-01
The Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) and associated westerly wind (WW) events account for much of the tropical intraseasonal variability (TISV). The TISV has been suggested as an important stochastic forcing that may be one of the underlying causes for the observed irregularities of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Recent observational studies and theories of interannual to interdecadal-scale variability suggest that ENSO may arise from different mechanisms depending on the basic states. The Pacific warming event of 1997, being associated with a period of strong MJO and WW events, serves as a natural experiment for studying the possible role of TISV in triggering an ENSO event. We have performed a combined statistical and composite analysis of surface WW events based on the assimilated surface wind and sea level pressure for the period of 1980-1993, the SSM/I wind for the period of 1988-1997, and OLR. Results indicates that extratropical forcing contribute significantly to the evolution of MJO and establishment of WW events over the Pacific warm pool. Following the major WW events, there appeared an eastward extension of equatorial warm SST anomalies from the western Pacific warm pool. Such tropical-extratropical interaction is particularly clear in the winter of 96-97 that leads to the recent warming event in 1997/98. From the above discussion, our current study on this subject is based on the hypothesis that 1) there is an enhanced air-sea interaction associated with TISV and the northerly surges from the extratropics in the initial phase of the 97/98 warming event, and 2) the relevant mechanisms are functions of the basic state of the coupled system (in terms of SST distribution and atmospheric mean circulation) that varies at the interannual and interdecadal time scale. We are analyzing the space-time structure of the northerly surges, their association with air-sea fluxes and upper ocean responses during the period of September 1996 to June 1997. The
Streaming current for particle-covered surfaces: simulations and experiments
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Blawzdziewicz, Jerzy; Adamczyk, Zbigniew; Ekiel-Jezewska, Maria L.
2017-11-01
Developing in situ methods for assessment of surface coverage by adsorbed nanoparticles is crucial for numerous technological processes, including controlling protein deposition and fabricating diverse microstructured materials (e.g., antibacterial coatings, catalytic surfaces, and particle-based optical systems). For charged surfaces and particles, promising techniques for evaluating surface coverage are based on measurements of the electrokinetic streaming current associated with ion convection in the double-layer region. We have investigated the dependence of the streaming current on the area fraction of adsorbed particles for equilibrium and random-sequential-adsorption (RSA) distributions of spherical particles, and for periodic square and hexagonal sphere arrays. The RSA results have been verified experimentally. Our numerical results indicate that the streaming current weakly depends on the microstructure of the particle monolayer. Combining simulations with the virial expansion, we provide convenient fitting formulas for the particle and surface contributions to the streaming current as functions of area fractions. For particles that have the same ζ-potential as the surface, we find that surface roughness reduces the streaming current. Supported by NSF Award No. 1603627.
Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huang, Jianbin; Zhang, Xiangdong; Zhang, Qiyi; Lin, Yanluan; Hao, Mingju; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Yao, Yao; Chen, Xin; Wang, Lei; Nie, Suping; Yin, Yizhou; Xu, Ying; Zhang, Jiansong
2017-12-01
The existence and magnitude of the recently suggested global warming hiatus, or slowdown, have been strongly debated1-3. Although various physical processes4-8 have been examined to elucidate this phenomenon, the accuracy and completeness of observational data that comprise global average surface air temperature (SAT) datasets is a concern9,10. In particular, these datasets lack either complete geographic coverage or in situ observations over the Arctic, owing to the sparse observational network in this area9. As a consequence, the contribution of Arctic warming to global SAT changes may have been underestimated, leading to an uncertainty in the hiatus debate. Here, we constructed a new Arctic SAT dataset using the most recently updated global SATs2 and a drifting buoys based Arctic SAT dataset11 through employing the `data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions' method12. Our estimate of global SAT rate of increase is around 0.112 °C per decade, instead of 0.05 °C per decade from IPCC AR51, for 1998-2012. Analysis of this dataset shows that the amplified Arctic warming over the past decade has significantly contributed to a continual global warming trend, rather than a hiatus or slowdown.
Reconciling controversies about the 'global warming hiatus'.
Medhaug, Iselin; Stolpe, Martin B; Fischer, Erich M; Knutti, Reto
2017-05-03
Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the 'global warming hiatus', caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of 'hiatus' and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.
The recent warming of permafrost in Alaska
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Osterkamp, T. E.
2005-12-01
This paper reports results of an experiment initiated in 1977 to determine the effects of climate on permafrost in Alaska. Permafrost observatories with boreholes were established along a north-south transect of Alaska in undisturbed permafrost terrain. The analysis and interpretation of annual temperature measurements in the boreholes and daily temperature measurements of the air, ground and permafrost surfaces made with automated temperature loggers are reported. Permafrost temperatures warmed along this transect coincident with a statewide warming of air temperatures that began in 1977. At two sites on the Arctic Coastal Plain, the warming was seasonal, greatest during "winter" months (October through May) and least during "summer" months (June through September). Permafrost temperatures peaked in the early 1980s and then decreased in response to slightly cooler air temperatures and thinner snow covers. Arctic sites began warming again typically about 1986 and Interior Alaska sites about 1988. Gulkana, the southernmost site, has been warming slowly since it was drilled in 1983. Air temperatures were relatively warm and snow covers were thicker-than-normal from the late 1980s into the late 1990s allowing permafrost temperatures to continue to warm. Temperatures at some sites leveled off or cooled slightly at the turn of the century. Two sites (Yukon River Bridge and Livengood) cooled during the period of observations. The magnitude of the total warming at the surface of the permafrost (through 2003) was 3 to 4 °C for the Arctic Coastal Plain, 1 to 2 °C for the Brooks Range including its northern and southern foothills, and 0.3 to 1 °C south of the Yukon River. While the data are sparse, permafrost is warming throughout the region north of the Brooks Range, southward along the transect from the Brooks Range to the Chugach Mountains (except for Yukon River and Livengood), in Interior Alaska throughout the Tanana River region, and in the region south of the
The whole-soil carbon flux in response to warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hicks Pries, Caitlin E.; Castanha, C.; Porras, R. C.; Torn, M. S.
2017-03-01
Soil organic carbon harbors three times as much carbon as Earth’s atmosphere, and its decomposition is a potentially large climate change feedback and major source of uncertainty in climate projections. The response of whole-soil profiles to warming has not been tested in situ. In a deep warming experiment in mineral soil, we found that CO2 production from all soil depths increased with 4°C warming; annual soil respiration increased by 34 to 37%. All depths responded to warming with similar temperature sensitivities, driven by decomposition of decadal-aged carbon. Whole-soil warming reveals a larger soil respiration response than many in situ experiments (most of which only warm the surface soil) and models.
Deducing noninductive current profile from surface voltage evolution
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Litwin, C.; Wukitch, S.; Hershkowitz, N.
Solving the resistive diffusion equation in the presence of a noninductive current source determines the time-evolution of the surface voltage. By inverting the problem the current drive profile can be determined from the surface voltage evolution. We show that under wide range of conditions the deduced profile is unique. If the conductivity profile is known, this method can be employed to infer the noninductive current profile, and, ipso facto, the profile of the total current. We discuss the application of this method to analyze the Alfven wave current drive experiments in Phaedrus-T.
Was early Mars warmed by ammonia?
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kasting, J. F.; Brown, L. L.; Acord, J. M.; Pollack, J. B.
1992-01-01
Runoff channels and valley networks present on ancient, heavily cratered Martian terrain suggests that the climate of Mars was originally warm and wet. One explanation for the formation of these channels is that the surface was warmed by the greenhouse effect of a dense, CO2 atmosphere. However, recent work shows that this theory is not consistent for the early period of the solar system. One way to increase the surface temperature predicted is to assume that other greenhouse gases were present in Mars' atmosphere in addition to CO2 and H2O. This possible gas is ammonia, NH3. If ammonia was present in sufficient quantities, it could have raised the surface temperature to 273 K. An adequate source would have been volcanic outgassing if the NH3 produced was shielded from photolysis by an ultraviolet light absorber.
2010-10-19
This frame from an animation based on NASA Spitzer Space Telescope data illustrates an unexpected warm spot on the surface of a gaseous exoplanet.The bright orange patches are the hottest part of the planet.
The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping
2016-09-01
Global mean surface temperature change over the past 120 years resembles a rising staircase: the overall warming trend was interrupted by the mid-twentieth-century big hiatus and the warming slowdown since about 1998. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation has been implicated in modulations of global mean surface temperatures, but which part of the mode drives the variability in warming rates is unclear. Here we present a successful simulation of the global warming staircase since 1900 with a global ocean-atmosphere coupled model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution. Without prescribed tropical Pacific variability, the same model, on average, produces a continual warming trend that accelerates after the 1960s. We identify four events where the tropical Pacific decadal cooling markedly slowed down the warming trend. Matching the observed spatial and seasonal fingerprints we identify the tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the warming staircase, with radiative forcing driving the overall warming trend. Specifically, tropical Pacific variability amplifies the first warming epoch of the 1910s-1940s and determines the timing when the big hiatus starts and ends. Our method of removing internal variability from the observed record can be used for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.
Remote sensing of surface currents with single shipborne high-frequency surface wave radar
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Zhongbao; Xie, Junhao; Ji, Zhenyuan; Quan, Taifan
2016-01-01
High-frequency surface wave radar (HFSWR) is a useful technology for remote sensing of surface currents. It usually requires two (or more) stations spaced apart to create a two-dimensional (2D) current vector field. However, this method can only obtain the measurements within the overlapping coverage, which wastes most of the data from only one radar observation. Furthermore, it increases observation's costs significantly. To reduce the number of required radars and increase the ocean area that can be measured, this paper proposes an economical methodology for remote sensing of the 2D surface current vector field using single shipborne HFSWR. The methodology contains two parts: (1) a real space-time multiple signal classification (MUSIC) based on sparse representation and unitary transformation techniques is developed for measuring the radial currents from the spreading first-order spectra, and (2) the stream function method is introduced to obtain the 2D surface current vector field. Some important conclusions are drawn, and simulations are included to validate the correctness of them.
Enhanced greenhouse gas emissions from the Arctic with experimental warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Voigt, Carolina; Lamprecht, Richard E.; Marushchak, Maija E.; Lind, Saara E.; Novakovskiy, Alexander; Aurela, Mika; Martikainen, Pertti J.; Biasi, Christina
2017-04-01
Temperatures in the Arctic are projected to increase more rapidly than in lower latitudes. With temperature being a key factor for regulating biogeochemical processes in ecosystems, even a subtle temperature increase might promote the release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere. Usually, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are the GHGs dominating the climatic impact of tundra. However, bare, patterned ground features in the Arctic have recently been identified as hot spots for nitrous oxide (N2O). N2O is a potent greenhouse gas, which is almost 300 times more effective in its global warming potential than CO2; but studies on arctic N2O fluxes are rare. In this study we examined the impact of temperature increase on the seasonal GHG balance of all three important GHGs (CO2, CH4 and N2O) from three tundra surface types (vegetated peat soils, unvegetated peat soils, upland mineral soils) in the Russian Arctic (67˚ 03' N 62˚ 55' E), during the course of two growing seasons. We deployed open-top chambers (OTCs), inducing air and soil surface warming, thus mimicking predicted warming scenarios. We combined detailed CO2, CH4 and N2O flux studies with concentration measurements of these gases within the soil profile down to the active layer-permafrost interface, and complemented these GHG measurements with detailed soil nutrient (nitrate and ammonium) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) measurements in the soil pore water profile. In our study, gentle air warming (˜1.0 ˚ C) increased the seasonal GHG release of all dominant surface types: the GHG budget of vegetated peat and mineral soils, which together cover more than 80 % of the land area in our study region, shifted from a sink to a source of -300 to 144 g CO2-eq m-2 and from -198 to 105 g CO2-eq m-2, respectively. While the positive warming response was governed by CO2, we provide here the first in situ evidence that warming increases arctic N2O emissions: Warming did not only enhance N2O emissions from
Anthropogenic Warming Impacts on Today's Sierra Nevada Snowpack and Flood Severity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huang, X.; Hall, A. D.; Berg, N.
2017-12-01
Focusing on this recent extreme wet year over California, this study investigates the warming impacts on the snowpack and the flood severity over the Sierra Nevada (SN), where the majority of the precipitation occurs during the winter season and early spring. One of our goals is to quantify anthropogenic warming impacts on the snow water equivalent (SWE) including recent historical warming and prescribed future projected warming scenarios; This work also explores to what extent flooding risk has increased under those warming cases. With a good representation of the historical precipitation and snowpack over the Sierra Nevada from the historical reference run at 9km (using WRF), the results from the offline Noah-MP simulations with perturbed near-surface temperatures reveal magnificent impacts of warming to the loss of the average snowpack. The reduction of the SWE under warming mainly results from the decreased rain-to-snow conversion with a weaker effect from increased snowmelt. Compared to the natural case, the past industrial warming decreased the maximum SWE by about one-fifth averaged over the study area. Future continuing warming can result in around one-third reduction of current maximum SWE under RCP4.5 emissions scenario, and the loss can reach to two-thirds under RCP8.5 as a "business-as-usual" condition. The impact of past warming is particularly outstanding over the North SN region where precipitation dominates and over the middle elevation regions where the snow mainly distributes. In the future, the warming impact on SWE progresses to higher regions, and so to the south and east. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the projected mid-elevation snowpack almost disappears by April 1st with even high-elevation snow reduced by about half. Along with the loss of the snowpack, as the temperature warms, floods can also intensify with increased early season runoff especially under heavy-rainy days caused by the weakened rain-to-snow processes and
Warm-adapted microbial communities enhance their carbon-use efficiency in warmed soils
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rousk, Johannes; Frey, Serita
2017-04-01
Ecosystem models predict that climate warming will stimulate microbial decomposition of soil carbon (C), resulting in a positive feedback to increasing temperatures. The current generation of models assume that the temperature sensitivities of microbial processes do not respond to warming. However, recent studies have suggested that the ability of microbial communities to adapt to warming can lead both strengthened and weakened feedbacks. A further complication is that the balance between microbial C used for growth to that used for respiration - the microbial carbon-use efficiency (CUE) - also has been shown through both modelling and empirical study to respond to warming. In our study, we set out to assess how chronic warming (+5°C over ambient during 9 years) of a temperate hardwood forest floor (Harvard Forest LTER, USA) affected temperature sensitivities of microbial processes in soil. To do this, we first determined the temperature relationships for bacterial growth, fungal growth, and respiration in plots exposed to warmed or ambient conditions. Secondly, we parametrised the established temperature functions microbial growth and respiration with plot-specific measured soil temperature data at a hourly time-resolution over the course of 3 years to estimate the real-time variation of in situ microbial C production and respiration. To estimate the microbial CUE, we also divided the microbial C production with the sum of microbial C production and respiration as a proxy for substrate use. We found that warm-adapted bacterial and fungal communities both shifted their temperature relationships to grow at higher rates in warm conditions which coincided with reduced rates at cool conditions. As such, their optimal temperature (Topt), minimum temperature (Tmin) and temperature sensitivity (Q10) were all increased. The temperature relationship for temperature, in contrast, was only marginally shifted in the same direction, but at a much smaller effect size, with
Can cirrus clouds warm early Mars?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ramirez, R. M.
2015-12-01
The presence of the ancient valley networks on Mars indicates a climate 3.8 Ga that was warm enough to allow substantial liquid water to flow on the martian surface for extended periods of time. However, the origin of these enigmatic features is hotly debated and discussion of their formation has been focused on how warm such a climate may have been and for how long. Recent warm and wet solutions using single-column radiative convective models involve supplementing CO2-H2O atmospheres with other greenhouse gases, such as H2 (i.e. Ramirez et al., 2014; Batalha et al., 2015). An interesting recent proposal, using the CAM 3-D General Circulation model, argues that global cirrus cloud decks in CO2-H2O atmospheres with at least 0.25 bar of CO2 , consisting of 10-micron (and larger) sized particles, could have generated the above-freezing temperatures required to explain the early martian surface geology (Urata and Toon, 2013). Here, we use our single-column radiative convective climate model to check these 3-D results and analyze the likelihood that such warm atmospheres, with mean surface pressures of up to 3 bar, could have supported cirrus cloud decks at full and fractional cloud cover for sufficiently long durations to form the ancient valleys. Our results indicate that cirrus cloud decks could have provided the mean surface temperatures required, but only if cloud cover approaches 100%, in agreement with Urata and Toon (2013). However, even should cirrus cloud coverage approach 100%, we show that such atmospheres are likely to have been too short-lived to produce the volumes of water required to carve the ancient valleys. At more realistic early Mars cloud fractions (~50%, Forget et al., 2013), cirrus clouds do not provide the required warming. Batalha, N., Domagal-Goldman, S. D., Ramirez, R.M., & Kasting, J. F., 2015. Icarus, 258, 337-349. Forget, F., Wordsworth, R., Millour, E., Madeleine, J. B., Kerber, L., Leconte, J., ... & Haberle, R. M., 2013. Icarus, 222
Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming.
Graversen, Rune G; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Tjernström, Michael; Källén, Erland; Svensson, Gunilla
2008-01-03
Near-surface warming in the Arctic has been almost twice as large as the global average over recent decades-a phenomenon that is known as the 'Arctic amplification'. The underlying causes of this temperature amplification remain uncertain. The reduction in snow and ice cover that has occurred over recent decades may have played a role. Climate model experiments indicate that when global temperature rises, Arctic snow and ice cover retreats, causing excessive polar warming. Reduction of the snow and ice cover causes albedo changes, and increased refreezing of sea ice during the cold season and decreases in sea-ice thickness both increase heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere. Changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation, as well as cloud cover, have also been proposed to cause Arctic temperature amplification. Here we examine the vertical structure of temperature change in the Arctic during the late twentieth century using reanalysis data. We find evidence for temperature amplification well above the surface. Snow and ice feedbacks cannot be the main cause of the warming aloft during the greater part of the year, because these feedbacks are expected to primarily affect temperatures in the lowermost part of the atmosphere, resulting in a pattern of warming that we only observe in spring. A significant proportion of the observed temperature amplification must therefore be explained by mechanisms that induce warming above the lowermost part of the atmosphere. We regress the Arctic temperature field on the atmospheric energy transport into the Arctic and find that, in the summer half-year, a significant proportion of the vertical structure of warming can be explained by changes in this variable. We conclude that changes in atmospheric heat transport may be an important cause of the recent Arctic temperature amplification.
Changes in South Pacific rainfall bands in a warming climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Widlansky, M. J.; Timmermann, A.; Stein, K.; McGregor, S.; Schneider, N.; England, M. H.; Lengaigne, M.; Cai, W.
2012-12-01
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest rainband in the Southern Hemisphere and provides most of the rainfall to Southwest Pacific island nations. In spite of various modeling efforts, it remains uncertain how the SPCZ will respond to greenhouse warming. A multi-model ensemble average of 21st century climate change projections from the current-generation of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) suggests a slightly wetter Southwest Pacific; however, inter-model uncertainty is greater than projected rainfall changes in the SPCZ region. Using a hierarchy of climate models we show that the uncertainty of SPCZ rainfall projections in the Southwest Pacific can be explained as a result of two competing mechanisms. Higher tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) lead to an overall increase of atmospheric moisture and rainfall while weaker SST gradients dynamically shift the SPCZ northeastward (see illustration) and promote summer drying in areas of the Southwest Pacific, similar to the response to strong El Niño events. Based on a multi-model ensemble of 55 greenhouse warming experiments and for moderate tropical warming of 2-3°C we estimate a 5% decrease of SPCZ rainfall, although uncertainty exceeds ±30% among CGCMs. For stronger tropical warming, a tendency for a wetter SPCZ region is identified.; Illustration of the "warmest gets wetter" response to projected 21st century greenhouse warming. Green shading depicts observed (1982-2009) rainfall during DJF (contour interval: 2 mm/day; starting at 1 mm/day). Blue (red) contours depict warming less (more) than the tropical mean (42.5°N/S) 21st century multi-model trend (contour interval: 0.2°C; starting at ±0.1°C).
Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances.
Magris, Rafael A; Heron, Scott F; Pressey, Robert L
2015-01-01
Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST) data, integrating both observed (1985-2009) and projected (2010-2099) time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events) and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming) and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i) by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii) by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types) intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming.
Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances
Magris, Rafael A.; Heron, Scott F.; Pressey, Robert L.
2015-01-01
Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST) data, integrating both observed (1985–2009) and projected (2010–2099) time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events) and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming) and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i) by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii) by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types) intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming. PMID:26535586
Aydogan, Ebru L.; Moser, Gerald; Müller, Christoph; Kämpfer, Peter; Glaeser, Stefanie P.
2018-01-01
Global warming is currently a much discussed topic with as yet largely unexplored consequences for agro-ecosystems. Little is known about the warming effect on the bacterial microbiota inhabiting the plant surface (phyllosphere), which can have a strong impact on plant growth and health, as well as on plant diseases and colonization by human pathogens. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of moderate surface warming on the diversity and composition of the bacterial leaf microbiota of the herbaceous plant Galium album. Leaves were collected from four control and four surface warmed (+2°C) plots located at the field site of the Environmental Monitoring and Climate Impact Research Station Linden in Germany over a 6-year period. Warming had no effect on the concentration of total number of cells attached to the leaf surface as counted by Sybr Green I staining after detachment, but changes in the diversity and phylogenetic composition of the bacterial leaf microbiota analyzed by bacterial 16S rRNA gene Illumina amplicon sequencing were observed. The bacterial phyllosphere microbiota were dominated by Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, and Actinobacteria. Warming caused a significant higher relative abundance of members of the Gammaproteobacteria, Actinobacteria, and Firmicutes, and a lower relative abundance of members of the Alphaproteobacteria and Bacteroidetes. Plant beneficial bacteria like Sphingomonas spp. and Rhizobium spp. occurred in significantly lower relative abundance in leaf samples of warmed plots. In contrast, several members of the Enterobacteriaceae, especially Enterobacter and Erwinia, and other potential plant or human pathogenic genera such as Acinetobacter and insect-associated Buchnera and Wolbachia spp. occurred in higher relative abundances in the phyllosphere samples from warmed plots. This study showed for the first time the long-term impact of moderate (+2°C) surface warming on the phyllosphere microbiota on plants. A reduction
Aydogan, Ebru L; Moser, Gerald; Müller, Christoph; Kämpfer, Peter; Glaeser, Stefanie P
2018-01-01
Global warming is currently a much discussed topic with as yet largely unexplored consequences for agro-ecosystems. Little is known about the warming effect on the bacterial microbiota inhabiting the plant surface (phyllosphere), which can have a strong impact on plant growth and health, as well as on plant diseases and colonization by human pathogens. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of moderate surface warming on the diversity and composition of the bacterial leaf microbiota of the herbaceous plant Galium album . Leaves were collected from four control and four surface warmed (+2°C) plots located at the field site of the Environmental Monitoring and Climate Impact Research Station Linden in Germany over a 6-year period. Warming had no effect on the concentration of total number of cells attached to the leaf surface as counted by Sybr Green I staining after detachment, but changes in the diversity and phylogenetic composition of the bacterial leaf microbiota analyzed by bacterial 16S rRNA gene Illumina amplicon sequencing were observed. The bacterial phyllosphere microbiota were dominated by Proteobacteria , Bacteroidetes , and Actinobacteria . Warming caused a significant higher relative abundance of members of the Gammaproteobacteria , Actinobacteria , and Firmicutes , and a lower relative abundance of members of the Alphaproteobacteria and Bacteroidetes . Plant beneficial bacteria like Sphingomonas spp. and Rhizobium spp. occurred in significantly lower relative abundance in leaf samples of warmed plots. In contrast, several members of the Enterobacteriaceae , especially Enterobacter and Erwinia , and other potential plant or human pathogenic genera such as Acinetobacter and insect-associated Buchnera and Wolbachia spp. occurred in higher relative abundances in the phyllosphere samples from warmed plots. This study showed for the first time the long-term impact of moderate (+2°C) surface warming on the phyllosphere microbiota on plants. A
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Masure, Edwige; Desmares, Delphine; Vrielynck, Bruno
2014-05-01
Dealing with 87 articles and using a Geographical Information System, Masure and Vrielynck (2009) have mapped worldwide biogeography of 38 Late Albian dinoflagellate cysts and have demonstrated Cretaceous oceanic bioclimatic belts. For comparison 30 Aptian species derived from 49 studies (Masure et al., 2013) and 49 Cenomanian species recorded from 33 articles have been encountered. Tropical, Subtropical, Boreal, Austral, bipolar and cosmopolitan species have been identified and Cretaceous dinoflagellate biomes are introduced. Asymmetric distribution of Aptian and Late Albian/Cenomanian subtropical Tethyan species, from 40°N to 70°S, demonstrates asymmetric Aptian and Late Albian/Cenomanian Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradients with warm water masses in high latitudes of Southern Ocean. The SST gradients were stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. We note that Aptian and Late Albian/Cenomanian dinoflagellates restricted to subtropical and subpolar latitudes met and mixed at 35-40°N, while they mixed from 30°S to 70°S and from 50°S to 70°S respectively in the Southern Hemisphere. Mixing belts extend on 5° in the Northern Hemisphere and along 40° (Aptian) and 20° (Late Albian/Cenomanian) in the Southern one. The board southern mixing belt of Tethyan and Austral dinoflagellates suggest co-occurrence of warm and cold currents. We record climatic changes such as the Early Aptian cooler period and Late Aptian and Albian warming through the poleward migration of species constrained to cool water masses. These species sensitive to temperature migrated from 35°N to 55°N through the shallow Greenland-Norwergian Seaway connecting the Central Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. While Tethyan species did not migrate staying at 40°N. We suggest that the Greenland-Norwergian Seaway might has been a barrier until Late Albian/Cenomanian for oceanic Tethyan dinoflagellates stopped either by the shallow water column or temperature and salinity
The effects of global warming on allergic diseases.
Chan, A W; Hon, K L; Leung, T F; Ho, M H; Rosa Duque, J S; Lee, T H
2018-06-01
Global warming is a public health emergency. Substantial scientific evidence indicates an unequivocal rising trend in global surface temperature that has caused higher atmospheric levels of moisture retention leading to more frequent extreme weather conditions, shrinking ice volume, and gradually rising sea levels. The concomitant rise in the prevalence of allergic diseases is closely related to these environmental changes because warm and moist environments favour the proliferation of common allergens such as pollens, dust mites, molds, and fungi. Global warming also stresses ecosystems, further accelerating critical biodiversity loss. Excessive carbon dioxide, together with the warming of seawater, promotes ocean acidification and oxygen depletion. This results in a progressive decline of phytoplankton and fish growth that in turn promotes the formation of larger oceanic dead zones, disrupting the food chain and biodiversity. Poor environmental biodiversity and a reduction in the microbiome spectrum are risk factors for allergic diseases in human populations. While climate change and the existence of an allergy epidemic are closely linked according to robust international research, efforts to mitigate these have encountered strong resistance because of vested economic and political concerns in different countries. International collaboration to establish legally binding regulations should be mandatory for forest protection and energy saving. Lifestyle and behavioural changes should also be advocated at the individual level by focusing on low carbon living; avoiding food wastage; and implementing the 4Rs: reduce, reuse, recycle, and replace principles. These lifestyle measures are entirely consistent with the current recommendations for allergy prevention. Efforts to mitigate climate change, preserve biodiversity, and prevent chronic diseases are interdependent disciplines.
Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability
Dai, Aiguo
2016-01-11
The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21 st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations duringmore » 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21 st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21 st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.« less
Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Dai, Aiguo
The reliability of model projections of greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced future climate change is often assessed based on models’ ability to simulate the current climate, but there has been little evidence that connects the two. In fact, this practice has been questioned because the GHG-induced future climate change may involve additional physical processes that are not important for the current climate. Here I show that the spatial patterns of the GHG-induced future warming in the 21 st century is highly correlated with the patterns of the year-to-year variations of surface air temperature for today’s climate, with areas of larger variations duringmore » 1950–1979 having more GHG-induced warming in the 21 st century in all climate models. Such a relationship also exists in other climate fields such as atmospheric water vapor, and it is evident in observed temperatures from 1950–2010. The results suggest that many physical processes may work similarly in producing the year-to-year climate variations in the current climate and the GHG-induced long-term changes in the 21 st century in models and in the real world. Furthermore, they support the notion that models that simulate present-day climate variability better are likely to make more reliable predictions of future climate change.« less
Is Global Warming Accelerating?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shukla, J.; Delsole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.
2009-12-01
A global pattern that fluctuates naturally on decadal time scales is identified in climate simulations and observations. This newly discovered component, called the Global Multidecadal Oscillation (GMO), is related to the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation and shown to account for a substantial fraction of decadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature. IPCC-class climate models generally underestimate the variance of the GMO, and hence underestimate the decadal fluctuations due to this component of natural variability. Decomposing observed sea surface temperature into a component due to anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing plus the GMO, reveals that most multidecadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature can be accounted for by these two components alone. The fact that the GMO varies naturally on multidecadal time scales implies that it can be predicted with some skill on decadal time scales, which provides a scientific rationale for decadal predictions. Furthermore, the GMO is shown to account for about half of the warming in the last 25 years and hence a substantial fraction of the recent acceleration in the rate of increase in global average sea surface temperature. Nevertheless, in terms of the global average “well-observed” sea surface temperature, the GMO can account for only about 0.1° C in transient, decadal-scale fluctuations, not the century-long 1° C warming that has been observed during the twentieth century.
Christiansen, Casper T; Haugwitz, Merian S; Priemé, Anders; Nielsen, Cecilie S; Elberling, Bo; Michelsen, Anders; Grogan, Paul; Blok, Daan
2017-01-01
Many Arctic regions are currently experiencing substantial summer and winter climate changes. Litter decomposition is a fundamental component of ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycles, with fungi being among the primary decomposers. To assess the impacts of seasonal climatic changes on litter fungal communities and their functioning, Betula glandulosa leaf litter was surface-incubated in two adjacent low Arctic sites with contrasting soil moisture regimes: dry shrub heath and wet sedge tundra at Disko Island, Greenland. At both sites, we investigated the impacts of factorial combinations of enhanced summer warming (using open-top chambers; OTCs) and deepened snow (using snow fences) on surface litter mass loss, chemistry and fungal decomposer communities after approximately 1 year. Enhanced summer warming significantly restricted litter mass loss by 32% in the dry and 17% in the wet site. Litter moisture content was significantly reduced by summer warming in the dry, but not in the wet site. Likewise, fungal total abundance and diversity were reduced by OTC warming at the dry site, while comparatively modest warming effects were observed in the wet site. These results suggest that increased evapotranspiration in the OTC plots lowered litter moisture content to the point where fungal decomposition activities became inhibited. In contrast, snow addition enhanced fungal abundance in both sites but did not significantly affect litter mass loss rates. Across sites, control plots only shared 15% of their fungal phylotypes, suggesting strong local controls on fungal decomposer community composition. Nevertheless, fungal community functioning (litter decomposition) was negatively affected by warming in both sites. We conclude that although buried soil organic matter decomposition is widely expected to increase with future summer warming, surface litter decay and nutrient turnover rates in both xeric and relatively moist tundra are likely to be significantly restricted by
Century-Long Warming Trends in the Upper Water Column of Lake Tanganyika.
Kraemer, Benjamin M; Hook, Simon; Huttula, Timo; Kotilainen, Pekka; O'Reilly, Catherine M; Peltonen, Anu; Plisnier, Pierre-Denis; Sarvala, Jouko; Tamatamah, Rashid; Vadeboncoeur, Yvonne; Wehrli, Bernhard; McIntyre, Peter B
2015-01-01
Lake Tanganyika, the deepest and most voluminous lake in Africa, has warmed over the last century in response to climate change. Separate analyses of surface warming rates estimated from in situ instruments, satellites, and a paleolimnological temperature proxy (TEX86) disagree, leaving uncertainty about the thermal sensitivity of Lake Tanganyika to climate change. Here, we use a comprehensive database of in situ temperature data from the top 100 meters of the water column that span the lake's seasonal range and lateral extent to demonstrate that long-term temperature trends in Lake Tanganyika depend strongly on depth, season, and latitude. The observed spatiotemporal variation in surface warming rates accounts for small differences between warming rate estimates from in situ instruments and satellite data. However, after accounting for spatiotemporal variation in temperature and warming rates, the TEX86 paleolimnological proxy yields lower surface temperatures (1.46 °C lower on average) and faster warming rates (by a factor of three) than in situ measurements. Based on the ecology of Thaumarchaeota (the microbes whose biomolecules are involved with generating the TEX86 proxy), we offer a reinterpretation of the TEX86 data from Lake Tanganyika as the temperature of the low-oxygen zone, rather than of the lake surface temperature as has been suggested previously. Our analyses provide a thorough accounting of spatiotemporal variation in warming rates, offering strong evidence that thermal and ecological shifts observed in this massive tropical lake over the last century are robust and in step with global climate change.
Century-Long Warming Trends in the Upper Water Column of Lake Tanganyika
Kraemer, Benjamin M.; Hook, Simon; Huttula, Timo; Kotilainen, Pekka; O’Reilly, Catherine M.; Peltonen, Anu; Plisnier, Pierre-Denis; Sarvala, Jouko; Tamatamah, Rashid; Vadeboncoeur, Yvonne; Wehrli, Bernhard; McIntyre, Peter B.
2015-01-01
Lake Tanganyika, the deepest and most voluminous lake in Africa, has warmed over the last century in response to climate change. Separate analyses of surface warming rates estimated from in situ instruments, satellites, and a paleolimnological temperature proxy (TEX86) disagree, leaving uncertainty about the thermal sensitivity of Lake Tanganyika to climate change. Here, we use a comprehensive database of in situ temperature data from the top 100 meters of the water column that span the lake’s seasonal range and lateral extent to demonstrate that long-term temperature trends in Lake Tanganyika depend strongly on depth, season, and latitude. The observed spatiotemporal variation in surface warming rates accounts for small differences between warming rate estimates from in situ instruments and satellite data. However, after accounting for spatiotemporal variation in temperature and warming rates, the TEX86 paleolimnological proxy yields lower surface temperatures (1.46 °C lower on average) and faster warming rates (by a factor of three) than in situ measurements. Based on the ecology of Thaumarchaeota (the microbes whose biomolecules are involved with generating the TEX86 proxy), we offer a reinterpretation of the TEX86 data from Lake Tanganyika as the temperature of the low-oxygen zone, rather than of the lake surface temperature as has been suggested previously. Our analyses provide a thorough accounting of spatiotemporal variation in warming rates, offering strong evidence that thermal and ecological shifts observed in this massive tropical lake over the last century are robust and in step with global climate change. PMID:26147964
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Justh, H. L.; Kasting, J. F.
2002-12-01
The nature of the ancient climate of Mars remains one of the fundamental unresolved problems in martian research. While the present environment is hostile to life, images from the Mariner, Viking and Mars Global Surveyor missions, have shown geologic features on the martian surface that seem to indicate an earlier period of hydrologic activity. The fact that ancient valley networks and degraded craters have been seen on the martian surface indicates that the early martian climate may have been more Earth-like, with a warmer surface temperature. The presence of liquid water would require a greenhouse effect much larger than needed at present, as the solar constant, S0, was 25% lower 3.8 billion years ago when the channels are thought to have formed (1,2). Previous calculations have shown that gaseous CO2 and H2O alone could not have warmed the martian surface to the temperature needed to account for the presence of liquid water (3). It has been hypothesized that a CO2-H2O atmosphere could keep early Mars warm if it was filled with CO2 ice clouds in the upper martian troposphere (4). Obtaining mean martian surface temperatures above 273 K would require nearly 100% cloud cover, a condition that is unrealistic for condensation clouds on early Mars. Any reduction in cloud cover makes it difficult to achieve warm martian surface temperatures except at high pressures and CO2 clouds could cool the martian surface if they were low and optically thick (5). CO2 and CH4 have been suggested as important greenhouse gases on the early Earth. Our research focuses on the effects of increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases on the surface temperature of early Mars, with emphasis on the reduced greenhouse gas, CH4. To investigate the possible warming effect of CH4, we modified a one-dimensional, radiative-convective climate model used in previous studies of the early martian climate (5). New cloud-free temperature profiles for various surface pressures and CH4 mixing
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Malakar, N. K.; Hulley, G. C.
2016-12-01
The Los Angeles (LA) metropolitan area is one of the fastest growing urban centers in the United States, and home to roughly 18 million people. Understanding the trends and impacts of warming temperatures in urban environments is an increasingly important issue in our changing climate. We used thermal infrared data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensors to retrieve Land Surface Temperature using a new Temperature Emissivity Separation algorithm adapted for these sensors. We analyzed day and night LST retrievals to study the warming trends of LST for the greater LA region from 2002-2015. The average warming trend over LA for summer days and nights over this period for MODIS Aqua data was 1.1 °C per decade, while a more rapid warming is observed for the years 2012-2016 for both MODIS and VIIRS observations. We have also found that inland LA regions are warming more rapidly than the other regions. We further investigate the underlying cause of the warming by looking into the physical factors such as changes in net radiation, cloud cover, and evapotranspiration. The results will help to understand how indicators of climate change are evolving in the beginning of the 21st century, and how they compare with global climate model projections. Identification of potential impacts, and underlying causes of warming trends in various LA regions will help decision makers to develop policies to help mitigate the effects of rising temperatures.
Multi-species collapses at the warm edge of a warming sea
Rilov, Gil
2016-01-01
Even during the current biodiversity crisis, reports on population collapses of highly abundant, non-harvested marine species were rare until very recently. This is starting to change, especially at the warm edge of species’ distributions where populations are more vulnerable to stress. The Levant basin is the southeastern edge of distribution of most Mediterranean species. Coastal water conditions are naturally extreme, and are fast warming, making it a potential hotspot for species collapses. Using multiple data sources, I found strong evidence for major, sustained, population collapses of two urchins, one large predatory gastropod and a reef-building gastropod. Furthermore, of 59 molluscan species once-described in the taxonomic literature as common on Levant reefs, 38 were not found in the present-day surveys, and there was a total domination of non-indigenous species in molluscan assemblages. Temperature trends indicate an exceptional warming of the coastal waters in the past three decades. Though speculative at this stage, the fast rise in SST may have helped pushing these invertebrates beyond their physiological tolerance limits leading to population collapses and possible extirpations. If so, these collapses may indicate the initiation of a multi-species range contraction at the Mediterranean southeastern edge that may spread westward with additional warming. PMID:27853237
Global Warming, Africa and National Security
2008-01-15
African populations. This includes awareness from a global perspective in line with The Army Strategy for the Environment, the UN’s Intergovernmental...2 attention. At the time, computer models did not indicate a significant issue with global warming suggesting only a modest increase of 2°C9...projected climate changes. Current Science The science surrounding climate change and global warming was, until recently, a point of
Current-induced switching of magnetic molecules on topological insulator surfaces
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Locane, Elina; Brouwer, Piet W.
2017-03-01
Electrical currents at the surface or edge of a topological insulator are intrinsically spin polarized. We show that such surface or edge currents can be used to switch the orientation of a molecular magnet weakly coupled to the surface or edge of a topological insulator. For the edge of a two-dimensional topological insulator as well as for the surface of a three-dimensional topological insulator the application of a well-chosen surface or edge current can lead to a complete polarization of the molecule if the molecule's magnetic anisotropy axis is appropriately aligned with the current direction. For a generic orientation of the molecule a nonzero but incomplete polarization is obtained. We calculate the probability distribution of the magnetic states and the switching rates as a function of the applied current.
Cloud-to-ground lightning and surface rainfall in warm-season Florida thunderstorms
Gungle, B.; Krider, E.P.
2006-01-01
Relationships between cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning and surface rainfall have been examined in nine isolated, warm-season thunderstorms on the east coast of central Florida. CG flashes and the associated rain volumes were measured as a function of time in storm-centered reference frames that followed each storm over a network of rain gauges. Values of the storm-average rain volume per CG flash ranged from 0.70 ?? 104 to 6.4 ?? 104 m3/CG flash, with a mean (and standard deviation) of 2.6 ?? 104 ?? 2.1 ?? 104 m3/CG flash. Values of the rain volume concurrent with CG flashes ranged from 0.11 ?? 104 to 4.9 ?? 104 m3/CG flash with a mean of 2.1 ?? 104 ?? 2.0 ?? 104 m3/CG flash. The lag-time between the peak CG flash rate and the peak rainfall rate (using 5 min bins), and the results of a lag correlation analysis, show that surface rainfall tends to follow the lightning (positive lag) by up to 20 min in six storms. In one storm the rainfall preceded the lightning by 5 min, and two storms had nonsignificant lags. Values of the lagged rain volume concurrent with CG flashes ranged from 0.43 ?? 104 to 4.9 ?? 104 m3/CG flash, and the mean was 1.9 ?? 104 ?? 1.7 ?? 104 m3/CG flash. For the five storms that produced 12 or more flashes and had significant lags, a plot of the optimum lag time versus the total number of CG flashes shows a linear trend (R2 = 0.56). The number of storms is limited, but the lag results do indicate that large storms tend to have longer lags. A linear fit to the lagged rain volume vs. the number of concurrent CG flashes has a slope of 1.9 ?? 104 m3/CG flash (R2 = 0.83). We conclude that warm-season Florida thunderstorms produce a roughly constant rain volume per CG flash and that CG lightning can be used to estimate the location and intensity of convective rainfall in that weather regime. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.
Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Medhaug, Iselin; Stolpe, Martin B.; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto
2017-05-01
Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the ‘global warming hiatus’, caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of ‘hiatus’ and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.
Drylands face potential threat under 2 °C global warming target
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huang, Jianping; Yu, Haipeng; Dai, Aiguo; Wei, Yun; Kang, Litai
2017-06-01
The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean surface warming to less than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. However, we show this target is acceptable only for humid lands, whereas drylands will bear greater warming risks. Over the past century, surface warming over global drylands (1.2-1.3 °C) has been 20-40% higher than that over humid lands (0.8-1.0 °C), while anthropogenic CO2 emissions generated from drylands (~230 Gt) have been only ~30% of those generated from humid lands (~750 Gt). For the twenty-first century, warming of 3.2-4.0 °C (2.4-2.6 °C) over drylands (humid lands) could occur when global warming reaches 2.0 °C, indicating ~44% more warming over drylands than humid lands. Decreased maize yields and runoff, increased long-lasting drought and more favourable conditions for malaria transmission are greatest over drylands if global warming were to rise from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. Our analyses indicate that ~38% of the world's population living in drylands would suffer the effects of climate change due to emissions primarily from humid lands. If the 1.5 °C warming limit were attained, the mean warming over drylands could be within 3.0 °C therefore it is necessary to keep global warming within 1.5 °C to prevent disastrous effects over drylands.
Coil Realizability Criteria for Stellarator Surface Currents
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Boozer, A.; Hirshman, S.; Brooks, A.
1998-11-01
The method of automatic optimization(P. Merkel, Nucl. Fusion 27 (1987) 867.) for the design of stellarator coils (NESCOIL code) typically yields a two-dimensional surface current potential φ from which current filaments can be extracted, using the relation Ks = n × nabla φ. Until now, the realizability of coils obtained in this way has been largely decoupled from the physics optimization process which originally provided the matching surface on which B_normal = 0 (thus determining φ). For quasi-axisymmetric stellarators (QAS)(A. Reiman, et al., to be published.) or quasi- omnigeneous stellarators(S. P. Hirshman, D. A. Spong, et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 80 (1998) 528.) with finite parallel plasma currents, it is often found that the current potential becomes too complicated to be consistent with realizable coils. We have developed analytic measures of the complexity of the current potential. These measures can be incorporated into the physics optimizer and can limit the plasma boundaries to those which are likely to produce realizable coils.
Warm Rivers Play Role in Arctic Sea Ice Melt Animation
2014-03-05
This frame from a NASA MODIS animation depicts warming sea surface temperatures in the Arctic Beaufort Sea after warm waters from Canada Mackenzie River broke through a shoreline sea ice barrier in summer 2012, enhancing the melting of sea ice.
Warming early Mars with carbon dioxide clouds that scatter infrared radiation.
Forget, F; Pierrehumbert, R T
1997-11-14
Geomorphic evidence that Mars was warm enough to support flowing water about 3.8 billion years ago presents a continuing enigma that cannot be explained by conventional greenhouse warming mechanisms. Model calculations show that the surface of early Mars could have been warmed through a scattering variant of the greenhouse effect, resulting from the ability of the carbon dioxide ice clouds to reflect the outgoing thermal radiation back to the surface. This process could also explain how Earth avoided an early irreversible glaciation and could extend the size of the habitable zone on extrasolar planets around stars.
Atmospheric Signature of the Agulhas Current
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nkwinkwa Njouodo, Arielle Stela; Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Rouault, Mathieu
2018-05-01
Western boundary currents play an important role in the climate system by transporting heat poleward and releasing it to the atmosphere. While their influence on extratropical storms and oceanic rainfall is becoming appreciated, their coastal influence is less known. Using satellite and climate reanalysis data sets and a regional atmospheric model, we show that the Agulhas Current is a driver of the observed band of rainfall along the southeastern African coast and above the Agulhas Current. The Agulhas current's warm core is associated with sharp gradients in sea surface temperature and sea level pressure, a convergence of low-level winds, and a co-located band of precipitation. Correlations among wind convergence, sea level pressure, and sea surface temperature indicate that these features show high degree of similarity to those in the Gulf Stream region. Model experiments further indicate that the Agulhas Current mostly impacts convective rainfall.
Quantification of Local Warming Trend: A Remote Sensing-Based Approach
Rahaman, Khan Rubayet; Hassan, Quazi K.
2017-01-01
Understanding the warming trends at local level is critical; and, the development of relevant adaptation and mitigation policies at those levels are quite challenging. Here, our overall goal was to generate local warming trend map at 1 km spatial resolution by using: (i) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based 8-day composite surface temperature data; (ii) weather station-based yearly average air temperature data; and (iii) air temperature normal (i.e., 30 year average) data over the Canadian province of Alberta during the period 1961–2010. Thus, we analysed the station-based air temperature data in generating relationships between air temperature normal and yearly average air temperature in order to facilitate the selection of year-specific MODIS-based surface temperature data. These MODIS data in conjunction with weather station-based air temperature normal data were then used to model local warming trends. We observed that almost 88% areas of the province experienced warming trends (i.e., up to 1.5°C). The study concluded that remote sensing technology could be useful for delineating generic trends associated with local warming. PMID:28072857
The global warming hiatus: Slowdown or redistribution?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yan, Xiao-Hai; Boyer, Tim; Trenberth, Kevin; Karl, Thomas R.; Xie, Shang-Ping; Nieves, Veronica; Tung, Ka-Kit; Roemmich, Dean
2016-11-01
Global mean surface temperatures (GMST) exhibited a smaller rate of warming during 1998-2013, compared to the warming in the latter half of the 20th Century. Although, not a "true" hiatus in the strict definition of the word, this has been termed the "global warming hiatus" by IPCC (2013). There have been other periods that have also been defined as the "hiatus" depending on the analysis. There are a number of uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the "hiatus." This report reviews these issues and also posits insights from a collective set of diverse information that helps us understand what we do and do not know. One salient insight is that the GMST phenomenon is a surface characteristic that does not represent a slowdown in warming of the climate system but rather is an energy redistribution within the oceans. Improved understanding of the ocean distribution and redistribution of heat will help better monitor Earth's energy budget and its consequences. A review of recent scientific publications on the "hiatus" shows the difficulty and complexities in pinpointing the oceanic sink of the "missing heat" from the atmosphere and the upper layer of the oceans, which defines the "hiatus." Advances in "hiatus" research and outlooks (recommendations) are given in this report.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Raitsos, D. E.; Hoteit, I.; Prihartato, P. K.; Chronis, T.; Triantafyllou, G.; Abualnaja, Y.
2011-07-01
Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.
Pathways to 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming based on observational and geological constraints
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Goodwin, Philip; Katavouta, Anna; Roussenov, Vassil M.; Foster, Gavin L.; Rohling, Eelco J.; Williams, Richard G.
2018-02-01
To restrict global warming to below the agreed targets requires limiting carbon emissions, the principal driver of anthropogenic warming. However, there is significant uncertainty in projecting the amount of carbon that can be emitted, in part due to the limited number of Earth system model simulations and their discrepancies with present-day observations. Here we demonstrate a novel approach to reduce the uncertainty of climate projections; using theory and geological evidence we generate a very large ensemble (3 × 104) of projections that closely match records for nine key climate metrics, which include warming and ocean heat content. Our analysis narrows the uncertainty in surface-warming projections and reduces the range in equilibrium climate sensitivity. We find that a warming target of 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial level requires the total emitted carbon from the start of year 2017 to be less than 195-205 PgC (in over 66% of the simulations), whereas a warming target of 2 °C is only likely if the emitted carbon remains less than 395-455 PgC. At the current emission rates, these warming targets are reached in 17-18 years and 35-41 years, respectively, so that there is a limited window to develop a more carbon-efficient future.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dai, Aiguo; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Prein, Andreas F.
2017-08-01
Climate models project increasing precipitation intensity but decreasing frequency as greenhouse gases increase. However, the exact mechanism for the frequency decrease remains unclear. Here we investigate this by analyzing hourly data from regional climate change simulations with 4 km grid spacing covering most of North America using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model was forced with present and future boundary conditions, with the latter being derived by adding the CMIP5 19-model ensemble mean changes to the ERA-interim reanalysis. The model reproduces well the observed seasonal and spatial variations in precipitation frequency and histograms, and the dry interval between rain events over the contiguous US. Results show that overall precipitation frequency indeed decreases during the warm season mainly due to fewer light-moderate precipitation (0.1 < P ≤ 2.0 mm/h) events, while heavy (2 < P ≤ 10 mm/h) to very heavy precipitation (P > 10 mm/h) events increase. Dry spells become longer and more frequent, together with a reduction in time-mean relative humidity (RH) in the lower troposphere during the warm season. The increased dry hours and decreased RH lead to a reduction in overall precipitation frequency and also for light-moderate precipitation events, while water vapor-induced increases in precipitation intensity and the positive latent heating feedback in intense storms may be responsible for the large increase in intense precipitation. The size of intense storms increases while their number decreases in the future climate, which helps explain the increase in local frequency of heavy precipitation. The results generally support a new hypothesis for future warm-season precipitation: each rainstorm removes ≥7% more moisture from the air per 1 K local warming, and surface evaporation and moisture advection take slightly longer than currently to replenish the depleted moisture before the next storm forms, leading to longer dry spells and
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gill, A. L.; Finzi, A.; Giasson, M. A.
2015-12-01
High latitude peatlands represent a major terrestrial carbon store sensitive to climate change, as well as a globally significant methane source. While elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and warming temperatures may increase peat respiration and C losses to the atmosphere, reductions in peatland water tables associated with increased growing season evapotranspiration may alter the nature of trace gas emission and increase peat C losses as CO2 relative to methane (CH4). As CH4 is a greenhouse gas with twenty times the warming potential of CO2, it is critical to understand how surface fluxes of CO2 and CH4 will be influenced by factors associated with global climate change. We used automated soil respiration chambers to assess the influence of elevated atmospheric CO2 and whole ecosystem warming on peatland CH4 and CO2 fluxes at the SPRUCE (Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change) Experiment in northern Minnesota. Belowground warming treatments were initiated in July 2014 and whole ecosystem warming and elevated CO2 treatments began in August 2015. Here we report soil iCO2 and iCH4 flux responses to the first year of belowground warming and the first two months of whole ecosystem manipulation. We also leverage the spatial and temporal density of measurements across the twenty autochambers to assess how physical (i.e., plant species composition, microtopography) and environmental (i.e., peat temperature, water table position, oxygen availability) factors influence observed rates of CH4 and CO2 loss. We find that methane fluxes increased significantly across warming treatments following the first year of belowground warming, while belowground warming alone had little influence on soil CO2 fluxes. Peat microtopography strongly influenced trace gas emission rates, with higher CH4 fluxes in hollow locations and higher CO2 fluxes in hummock locations. While there was no difference in the isotopic composition of the methane
Atmospheric footprint of the recent warming slowdown
Liu, Bo; Zhou, Tianjun
2017-01-01
Growing body of literature has developed to detect the role of ocean heat uptake and transport in the recent warming slowdown between 1998–2013; however, the atmospheric footprint of the slowdown in dynamical and physical processes remains unclear. Here, we divided recent decades into the recent hiatus period and the preceding warming period (1983–1998) to investigate the atmospheric footprint. We use a process-resolving analysis method to quantify the contributions of different processes to the total temperature changes. We show that the increasing rate of global mean tropospheric temperature was also reduced during the hiatus period. The decomposed trends due to physical processes, including surface albedo, water vapour, cloud, surface turbulent fluxes and atmospheric dynamics, reversed the patterns between the two periods. The changes in atmospheric heat transport are coupled with changes in the surface latent heat flux across the lower troposphere (below approximately 800 hPa) and with cloud-related processes in the upper troposphere (above approximately 600 hPa) and were underpinned by strengthening/weakening Hadley Circulation and Walker Circulation during the warming/hiatus period. This dynamical coupling experienced a phase transition between the two periods, reminding us of the importance of understanding the atmospheric footprint, which constitutes an essential part of internal climate variability. PMID:28084457
Potential impacts of global warming on water resources in southern California.
Beuhler, M
2003-01-01
Global warming will have a significant impact on water resources within the 20 to 90-year planning period of many water projects. Arid and semi-arid regions such as Southern California are especially vulnerable to anticipated negative impacts of global warming on water resources. Long-range water facility planning must consider global climate change in the recommended mix of new facilities needed to meet future water requirements. The generally accepted impacts of global warming include temperature, rising sea levels, more frequent and severe floods and droughts, and a shift from snowfall to rain. Precipitation changes are more difficult to predict. For Southern California, these impacts will be especially severe on surface water supplies. Additionally, rising sea levels will exacerbate salt-water intrusion into freshwater and impact the quality of surface water supplies. Integrated water resources planning is emerging as a tool to develop water supplies and demand management strategies that are less vulnerable to the impacts of global warming. These tools include water conservation, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and desalination of brackish water and possibly seawater. Additionally, planning for future water needs should include explicit consideration of the potential range of global warming impacts through techniques such as scenario planning.
The Question of Future Droughts in a CO2-Warmed World
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rind, David
1999-01-01
Increased droughts are to be expected in a warmer world, and so are increased floods. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, and evaporate more water from the surface. Thus, when it is not raining, available soil water should be reduced. When it is raining, it could very well rain harder. Most researchers agree then that a warmer world will have greater hydrologic extremes. In addition, there is a basic imbalance that develops as climate warms, between the loss of moisture from the soil by evaporation and replenishment via precipitation. The land has a smaller heat capacity than the ocean, so it should warm faster. Evaporation from the land proceeds at the rate of its warming, while precipitation derives primarily from evaporation at the ocean surface. As the latter is increasing more slowly, in a warmer world, precipitation will not increase as rapidly as evaporation due to the fact that the oceans warm more slowly than the land surface (evaporation over the ocean is slower than over the land). Hence, more droughts are anticipated in a warmer world, but the specific location of such droughts is somewhat uncertain. To address the question of where droughts are likely to occur, one first needs to have a reasonable sense of what the future magnitude of warming will be, and what the latitudinal distribution of warming will be. For example, the greater the warming at high latitudes relative to low latitudes, the more likely there will be increased drought over the U.S. in summer. In contrast, substantial tropical warming could give us El Nino-like precipitation, with intensified flooding along the southern tier of the U.S. All of these conditions are likely to intensify as the global temperature rises.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bratu, S.
2012-04-01
In order to find new approaches and new ideas for my students to appreciate the importance of science in their daily life, I proposed a theme for them to debate. They had to search for global warming information and illustrations in the media, and discuss the articles they found in the classroom. This task inspired them to search for new information about this important and timely theme in science. I informed my students that all the best information about global warming and meltwater they found would be used in a poster that would help us to update the knowledge base of the Physics laboratory. I guided them to choose the most eloquent images and significant information. Searching and working to create this poster, the students arrived to better appreciate the importance of science in their daily life and to critically evaluate scientific information transmitted via the media. In the poster we created, one can find images, photos and diagrams and some interesting information: Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected evolution. In the last 100 years, the Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuel. They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 °C for the lowest emissions scenario and 2.4 to 6.4 °C for the highest predictions. An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, and potentially result in expansion of subtropical deserts. Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing decrease of
Visualization tool for the world ocean surface currents
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kasyanov, S.; Nikitin, O.
2003-04-01
Fortran-based software for the world ocean surface currents visualization functioning on the Windows platform (95 and higher) has been developed. The software works with the global interpolated drifting buoys data set (1979-2002) from the WOCE Surface Velocity Program and the global bottom relief five-minute resolution data set (ETOPO5). These data sets loaded in binary form into operative memory of a PC (256 Mb or better more), together with the software compose the world ocean surface currents visualization tool. The tool allows researches to process data on-line in any region of the world ocean, display data in different visualization forms, calculate currents velocity statistics and save chosen images as graphic files. It provides displays of buoy movement (animation), maps of buoy trajectories, averaged (by prescribed time and space grid intervals) current vector and modulus fields, fields of current mean and eddy kinetic energies and their ratio, current steadiness coefficient and sea surface temperature. Any trajectory may be selected simply by clicking it on any summary map of trajectories (or by given buoy number). It may then be viewed and analyzed in detail, while graphs of velocity (components, module and vector) and water temperature variations along this trajectory may be displayed. The description of the previous version of the tool and some screen shots are available at http://zhurnal.ape.relarn.ru/articles/2001/154.pdf(in Russian) and will be available (in English) at http://csit.ugatu.ac.ru (CSIT '2001, Proceedings, v.2, p. 32-41, Nikitin O.P. et al).
Trends in continental temperature and humidity directly linked to ocean warming.
Byrne, Michael P; O'Gorman, Paul A
2018-05-08
In recent decades, the land surface has warmed substantially more than the ocean surface, and relative humidity has fallen over land. Amplified warming and declining relative humidity over land are also dominant features of future climate projections, with implications for climate-change impacts. An emerging body of research has shown how constraints from atmospheric dynamics and moisture budgets are important for projected future land-ocean contrasts, but these ideas have not been used to investigate temperature and humidity records over recent decades. Here we show how both the temperature and humidity changes observed over land between 1979 and 2016 are linked to warming over neighboring oceans. A simple analytical theory, based on atmospheric dynamics and moisture transport, predicts equal changes in moist static energy over land and ocean and equal fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean. The theory is shown to be consistent with the observed trends in land temperature and humidity given the warming over ocean. Amplified land warming is needed for the increase in moist static energy over drier land to match that over ocean, and land relative humidity decreases because land specific humidity is linked via moisture transport to the weaker warming over ocean. However, there is considerable variability about the best-fit trend in land relative humidity that requires further investigation and which may be related to factors such as changes in atmospheric circulations and land-surface properties.
Effects of Global Warming on Vibrio Ecology.
Vezzulli, Luigi; Pezzati, Elisabetta; Brettar, Ingrid; Höfle, Manfred; Pruzzo, Carla
2015-06-01
Vibrio-related infections are increasing worldwide both in humans and aquatic animals. Rise in global sea surface temperature (SST), which is approximately 1 °C higher now than 140 years ago and is one of the primary physical impacts of global warming, has been linked to such increases. In this chapter, major known effects of increasing SST on the biology and ecology of vibrios are described. They include the effects on bacterial growth rate, both in the field and in laboratory, culturability, expression of pathogenicity traits, and interactions with aquatic organisms and abiotic surfaces. Special emphasis is given to the effect of ocean warming on Vibrio interactions with zooplankters, which represent one of the most important aquatic reservoirs for these bacteria. The reported findings highlight the biocomplexity of the interactions between vibrios and their natural environment in a climate change scenario, posing the need for interdisciplinary studies to properly understand the connection between ocean warming and persistence and spread of vibrios in sea waters and the epidemiology of the diseases they cause.
The Effect of Extratropical Warming Amplification on the Future Tropical Precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yoshimori, M.; Hamano, Y.; Abe-Ouchi, A.
2016-12-01
The Arctic warms much more than the rest of the world under relatively uniform radiative forcing. Recent observations verify this characteristics of global warming. On the other hand, previous studies based on paleo-proxy data and paleo- and idealized numerical experiments have indicated that asymmetric warming between the two hemispheres can impact on the distribution of tropical precipitation. It was suggested diagnostically that the Arctic warming amplification may become responsible for a part of the future precipitation change in the tropics. In the current study, we have conducted several sensitivity experiments that isolate the effect of remote warming on the tropical precipitation using an atmospheric general circulation model with a mixture of prescribed and predicted mixed-layer sea surface conditions, depending of the region. Additional experiments including ocean dynamics will also be presented. In a standard equilibrium experiment of doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (2xCO2), the Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitude (40-90ºN) warms by about 7ºC and precipitation change occurs mostly in the tropical Pacific (20ºS-20ºN). In the zonal average, the increase in precipitation is larger in the North than the South by about 0.5 mm/day and the peak latitude of precipitation shifted northward by about 1º. Sensitivity experiments were designed to amplify or suppress the Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitude warming to different levels and to allow for the tropics to respond freely to those perturbations. The perturbations of the mid-high latitude warming range from -5ºC to +7ºC from the standard 2xCO2 experiment, and precipitation change range from -160% to +160% relative to the difference between 2xCO2 and control experiments. The peak latitude of precipitation shifted northward from -1.5º to +2.5º, and it was verified that most of the change is contributed by the change in the Hadley circulation, rather than the change in the moisture amount
Regional influence of monsoons in the current and a warming climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Saini, Roop
Monsoon rainfall is of critical societal importance and monsoon circulations comprise an important part of global climate. Here, the thermodynamics of monsoon onsets in India and North America are considered both for observed data and for model projections with increasing greenhouse gases, in order to better understand the regional influence of monsoons in the current and warming climate. The regional influence of the monsoon onsets is analyzed in terms of the thermodynamic energy equation, regional circulation, and precipitation. For the Indian Monsoon, a Rossby-like response to the monsoon onset is clear in the observational data and is associated with horizontal temperature advection at midlevels as the westerlies intersect the warm temperature anomalies of the Rossby wave. The horizontal temperature advection is balanced by subsidence over areas of North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East, with an associated decrease in precipitation over those regions. The same processes that favor subsidence to the west of the monsoon also force rising motion over northern India and appear to be an important factor for the inland development of the monsoon. For the smaller spatial scales of the North American Monsoon, the descent to the northwest of the primary onset in Northwest Mexico is much more local and occurs directly in the path of monsoon development, apparently providing a self-limiting mechanism. For both monsoon onsets, simple Gill-Matsuno dynamics provide some qualitative understanding of the onset circulation, but do not reproduce the large spatial scales of the upper-level flow, which appear to be related to interactions with the mean westerly jets. The monsoon onsets for both regions were also analyzed for 5 models with available data from the CMIP5 project for runs with 1% per year CO2 increases. For the models considered, there is little consensus regarding changes to the strength of the monsoon onset in a warmer climate in terms of precipitation
Surface currents on the plasma-vacuum interface in MHD equilibria
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hanson, James
2017-10-01
The VMEC non-axisymmetric MHD equilibrium code can compute free-boundary equilibria. Since VMEC assumes that magnetic fields within the plasma form closed and nested flux surfaces, the plasma-vacuum interface is a flux surface, and the total magnetic field there has no normal component. VMEC imposes this condition of zero normal field using the potential formulation of Merkel, and solves a Neumann problem for the magnetic potential in the exterior region. This boundary condition necessarily admits the possibility of a surface current on the interface. While this surface current may be small in MHD equilibrium, it is readily computed in terms of the magnetic potentials in both the interior and exterior regions, evaluated on the surface. If only the external magnetic potential is known (as in VMEC), then the surface current can be computed from the discontinuity of the tangential field across the interface. Examples of the surface current for VMEC equilibria will be shown for a zero-pressure stellarator equilibrium. Field-line following of the vacuum magnetic field shows magnetic islands within the plasma region.
Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?
Salzmann, Marc
2016-01-01
Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K−1 decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge. PMID:27386558
Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?
Salzmann, Marc
2016-06-01
Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ma, H.-Y.; Klein, S. A.; Xie, S.; Zhang, C.; Tang, S.; Tang, Q.; Morcrette, C. J.; Van Weverberg, K.; Petch, J.; Ahlgrimm, M.; Berg, L. K.; Cheruy, F.; Cole, J.; Forbes, R.; Gustafson, W. I.; Huang, M.; Liu, Y.; Merryfield, W.; Qian, Y.; Roehrig, R.; Wang, Y.-C.
2018-03-01
Many weather forecast and climate models simulate warm surface air temperature (T2m) biases over midlatitude continents during the summertime, especially over the Great Plains. We present here one of a series of papers from a multimodel intercomparison project (CAUSES: Cloud Above the United States and Errors at the Surface), which aims to evaluate the role of cloud, radiation, and precipitation biases in contributing to the T2m bias using a short-term hindcast approach during the spring and summer of 2011. Observations are mainly from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains sites. The present study examines the contributions of surface energy budget errors. All participating models simulate too much net shortwave and longwave fluxes at the surface but with no consistent mean bias sign in turbulent fluxes over the Central United States and Southern Great Plains. Nevertheless, biases in the net shortwave and downward longwave fluxes as well as surface evaporative fraction (EF) are contributors to T2m bias. Radiation biases are largely affected by cloud simulations, while EF bias is largely affected by soil moisture modulated by seasonal accumulated precipitation and evaporation. An approximate equation based upon the surface energy budget is derived to further quantify the magnitudes of radiation and EF contributions to T2m bias. Our analysis ascribes that a large EF underestimate is the dominant source of error in all models with a large positive temperature bias, whereas an EF overestimate compensates for an excess of absorbed shortwave radiation in nearly all the models with the smallest temperature bias.
Correcting Borehole Temperture Profiles for the Effects of Postglacial Warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rath, V.; Gonzalez-Rouco, J. F.
2010-09-01
Though the investigation of observed borehole temperatures has proved to be a valuable tool for the reconstruction of ground surface temperature histories, there are many open questions concerning the signifcance and accuracy of the reconstructions from these data. In particular, the temperature signal of the warming after the Last glacial Maximum (LGM) is still present in borehole temperature proiles. It also influences the relatively shallow boreholes used in current paleoclimate inversions to estimate temperature changes in the last centuries. This is shown using Monte Carlo experiments on past surface temperature change, using plausible distributions for the most important parameters, i.e.,amplitude and timing of the glacial-interglacial transition, the prior average temperature, and petrophysical properties. It has been argued that the signature of the last glacial-interglacial transition could be responsible for the high amplitudes of millennial temperature reconstructions. However, in shallow boreholes the additional effect of past climate can reasonably approximated by a linear variation of temperature with depth, and thus be accommodated by a "biased" background heat flow. This is good news for borehole climatology. A simple correction based on subtracting an appropriate prior surface temperature history shows promising results reducing these errors considerably, in particular with deeper boreholes, where the warming signal in heat flow can no longer be approximated linearly. We will show examples from North America and Eurasia, comparing temperatures reduced the proposed algoritm with AOGCM modeling results.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yamamoto-Kawai, M.; McLaughlin, F. A.; Carmack, E. C.
2011-02-01
In 2008, surface waters in the Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean were found to be undersaturated with respect to aragonite. This is associated with recent extensive melting of sea ice in this region, as well as elevated sea surface temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We have estimated the relative contribution of each of these controlling factors to the calcium carbonate saturation state (Ω) from observations of dissolved inorganic carbon, total alkalinity and oxygen isotope ratio. Results indicate that the increase in atmospheric CO2 has lowered surface Ω by ˜0.3 in the Canada Basin since the preindustrial period. Recent melting of sea ice has further lowered mean Ω by 0.4, and of this, half was due to dilution of surface water and half was due to the change in air-sea disequilibrium state. Surface water warming has generally counteracted the mean decrease in Ω by 0.1.
Warm and Saline Events Embedded in the Meridional Circulation of the Northern North Atlantic
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hakkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B.; Worthen, Denise L.
2011-01-01
Ocean state estimates from 1958 to 2005 from the Simple Ocean Assimilation System (SODA) system are analyzed to understand circulation between subtropical and subpolar Atlantic and their connection with atmospheric forcing. This analysis shows three periods (1960s, around 1980, and 2000s) with enhanced warm, saline waters reaching high latitudes, alternating with freshwater events originating at high latitudes. It complements surface drifter and altimetry data showing the subtropical -subpolar exchange leading to a significant temperature and salinity increase in the northeast Atlantic after 2001. The warm water limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning cell represented by SODA expanded in density/salinity space during these warm events. Tracer simulations using SODA velocities also show decadal variation of the Gulf Stream waters reaching the subpolar gyre and Nordic seas. The negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation index, usually invoked in such variability, fails to predict the warming and salinization in the early 2000s, with salinities not seen since the 1960s. Wind stress curl variability provided a linkage to this subtropical/subpolar gyre exchange as illustrated using an idealized two ]layer circulation model. The ocean response to the modulation of the climatological wind stress curl pattern was found to be such that the northward penetration of subtropical tracers is enhanced when amplitude of the wind stress curl is weaker than normal. In this case both the subtropical and subpolar gyres weaken and the subpolar density surfaces relax; hence, the polar front moves westward, opening an enhanced northward access of the subtropical waters in the eastern boundary current.
Kephart, Rebecca; Johnson, Anna; Sapkota, Avi; Stalder, Kenneth; McGlone, John
2014-01-01
Simple Summary Transport is an inevitable process in the modern, multi-site swine industry. Pigs do not have efficient physiological means (such as sweating) to cool themselves. Therefore, being transported in hot weather can cause heat stress and even death. Sprinkling the pigs and/or bedding may facilitate cooling, thereby improving well-being and survivability of pigs arriving at the plant. Abstract This study was conducted July of 2012 in Iowa, in WARM (<26.7 °C) and HOT (≥26.7 °C) weather. Four sprinkling methods were compared, with one treatment being randomly assigned to each load: control- no sprinkling (not applied in HOT weather), pigs only, bedding only, or pigs and bedding. Experiment 1 used 51 loads in WARM- and 86 loads in HOT weather to determine sprinkling effects on pig measures (surface temperature, vocalizations, slips and falls, and stress signs). Experiment 2 used 82 loads in WARM- and 54 loads in HOT weather to determine the sprinkling effects on transport losses (non-ambulatory, dead, and total transport losses). Experiment 1 found that, in WARM weather, there were no differences between sprinkling treatments for surface temperature, vocalizations, or slips and falls (p ≥ 0.18). However, stress signs were 2% greater when sprinkling pigs- or bedding only- compared to control (p = 0.03). Experiment 2 found that, in WARM and HOT weather, sprinkling did not affect non-ambulatory, dead, or total transport losses (p ≥ 0.18). Although the current study did not find any observed sprinkling effects for pig measures or transport losses it is extremely important to note that the inference space of this study is relatively small, so further studies should be conducted to see if these results are applicable to other geographical regions and seasons. PMID:26480035
Recent Global Warming As Depicted by AIRS, GISSTEMP, and MERRA-2
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Susskind, J.; Iredell, L. F.; Lee, J. N.
2017-12-01
We observed anomalously warm global mean surface temperatures since 2015. The year 2016 represents the warmest annual mean surface skin and surface air temperatures in the AIRS observational period, September 2002 through August 2017. Additionally, AIRS monthly mean surface skin temperature, from January 2016 through September 2016, and November 2016, were the warmest observed for each month of the year. Continuing this trend, the AIRS global surface temperatures of 2017 February and April show the second greatest positive anomalies from average. This recent warming is particularly significant over the Arctic where the snow and sea ice melt is closely tied to the spring and summer surface temperatures. In this paper, we show the global distribution of surface temperature anomalies as observed by AIRS over the period September 2002 through August 2017 and compare them with those from the GISSTEMP and MERRA-2 surface temperatures. The spatial patterns of warm and cold anomalies for a given month show reasonably good agreement in all three data set. AIRS anomalies, which do not have the benefit of in-situ measurements, are in almost perfect agreement with those of MERRA-2, which does use in-situ surface measurements. GISSTEMP anomaly patterns for the most part look similar to those of AIRS and MERRA-2, but are more spread out spatially, and consequently are also weaker.
Forced-air patient warming blankets disrupt unidirectional airflow.
Legg, A J; Hamer, A J
2013-03-01
We have recently shown that waste heat from forced-air warming blankets can increase the temperature and concentration of airborne particles over the surgical site. The mechanism for the increased concentration of particles and their site of origin remained unclear. We therefore attempted to visualise the airflow in theatre over a simulated total knee replacement using neutral-buoyancy helium bubbles. Particles were created using a Rocket PS23 smoke machine positioned below the operating table, a potential area of contamination. The same theatre set-up, warming devices and controls were used as in our previous study. This demonstrated that waste heat from the poorly insulated forced-air warming blanket increased the air temperature on the surgical side of the drape by > 5°C. This created convection currents that rose against the downward unidirectional airflow, causing turbulence over the patient. The convection currents increased the particle concentration 1000-fold (2 174 000 particles/m(3) for forced-air warming vs 1000 particles/m(3) for radiant warming and 2000 particles/m(3) for the control) by drawing potentially contaminated particles from below the operating table into the surgical site. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:407-10.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Phillips, J. R.; Hanson, P. J.; Warren, J.; Ward, E. J.; Brice, D. J.; Graham, J.
2017-12-01
Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) is an in situ warming by elevated CO2 manipulation located in a high-carbon, spruce peatland in northern Minnesota. Warming treatments combined a 12-m diameter open topped chamber with internally recirculating warm air and soil deep heating to simulate a broad range of future warming treatments. Deep below ground soil warming rates are 0, +2.25, +4.5, +6.75, and +9 °C. Deep belowground warming was initiated in June 2014 followed by air warming in August 2015. In June 2016, elevated CO2 atmospheres (eCO2 at + 500 ppm) were added to half of the warming treatments in a regression design. Our objective was to track long-term vegetation responses to warming and eCO2. Annual tree growth is based on winter measurement of circumference of all Picea mariana and Larix laricina trees within each 113 m2 plot, automated dendrometers, terrestrial LIDAR scanning of tree heights and canopy volumes, and destructive allometry. Annual shrub growth is measured in late summer by destructive clipping in two 0.25 m2 sub-plots and separation of the current year tissues. During the first year of warming, tree basal area growth was reduced for Picea, but not Larix trees. Growth responses for the woody shrub vegetation remains highly variable with a trend towards increasing growth with warming. Elevated CO2 enhancements of growth are not yet evident in the data. Second-year results will also be reported. Long-term hypotheses for increased woody plant growth under warming include potential enhancements driven by increased nutrient availability from warming induced decomposition of surface peats.
Modulation of sea surface temperature warming in the Bay of Biscay by Loire and Gironde Rivers
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Costoya, X.; Fernández-Nóvoa, D.; deCastro, M.; Santos, F.; Lazure, P.; Gómez-Gesteira, M.
2016-01-01
The influence of Loire and Gironde River discharges over the sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern Bay of Biscay (0.6º-36.6ºW, 44.2º-47.8ºW) was analyzed by means of two complementary databases (MODIS and OISST1/4). The area influenced by river plume showed a different SST when compared with the adjacent oceanic area for the months when the plume attains its highest extension (December, January, and February). Ocean was observed to warm at a rate of approximately 0.3ºC dec-1 while temperature at the area influenced by the rivers cooled at a rate of -0.15ºC dec-1 over the period 1982-2014. The mere presence of a freshwater layer is able to modulate the warming observed at adjacent ocean locations since the coastal area is isolated from the rest of the Bay. This nearshore strip is the only part of the Bay where changes in SST depend on North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) but not on North Atlantic SST represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These different cooling-warming trends are even more patent over the last years (2002-2014) under atmospheric favorable conditions for plume enhancement. River runoff increased at a rate on the order of 120 m3s-1dec-1 over that period and southwesterly winds, which favor the confinement of the plume, showed a positive and significant trend both in duration and intensity. Thus, the coastal strip has been observed to cool at a rate of -0.5°C dec-1.
Greenhouse gas release from arctic permafrost: positive feedback to climate warming (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Walter Anthony, K. M.; Zimov, S. A.
2009-12-01
The release of carbon (C) in the form of greenhouse gases from thawing permafrost is one of the most likely and important positive feedbacks from the land to the atmosphere in a warmer world. Perennially frozen ground, known as permafrost, covers 20 percent of the Earth’s land surface. Recent accounting for C stored as far as 80m beneath the surface in permafrost (950 billion tons) more than doubles previous inventory estimates and is comparable to the current atmospheric CO2 burden of 750 billion tons. Permafrost organic C accumulated over tens of thousands of years. In its frozen state this C is sequestered from the atmosphere, mitigating climate warming. Long term borehole from Siberia and North America attest that permafrost is thawing. A third to half of permafrost is now within a degree to a degree and a half of thawing. In places where permafrost temperature crosses the critical 0°C threshold, ice melts causing thermokarst (ground surface collapse). Thermokarst features such as sink holes, pits, slope failure, mud flows, and the formation, expansion, and drainage of thaw lakes are widespread, up to 90% of the land area in some areas of the Arctic. Dating of features revealed that this process has been going on for the past 10,000 years, since the Earth entered the most recent interglacial warm period. However, satellite records during the past 55 years suggest that permafrost thaw in some regions is accelerating. What will happen to the climate as the rest of the permafrost thaws? When permafrost thaws, organic C is made available to microbes, which rapidly degrade it, producing greenhouse gases such as CO2 and methane (CH4, 25 times the global warming potential of CO2 over 100 years). A particularly important region for greenhouse gas emissions is the Siberian Yedoma Ice Complex (10^6 km2), a Pliestocene-aged permafrost type that contains roughly half of the Arctic’s permafrost C stock. Based on patterns of yedoma degradation during the present
Potential and limits for rapid genetic adaptation to warming in a Great Barrier Reef coral.
Matz, Mikhail V; Treml, Eric A; Aglyamova, Galina V; Bay, Line K
2018-04-01
Can genetic adaptation in reef-building corals keep pace with the current rate of sea surface warming? Here we combine population genomics, biophysical modeling, and evolutionary simulations to predict future adaptation of the common coral Acropora millepora on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Genomics-derived migration rates were high (0.1-1% of immigrants per generation across half the latitudinal range of the GBR) and closely matched the biophysical model of larval dispersal. Both genetic and biophysical models indicated the prevalence of southward migration along the GBR that would facilitate the spread of heat-tolerant alleles to higher latitudes as the climate warms. We developed an individual-based metapopulation model of polygenic adaptation and parameterized it with population sizes and migration rates derived from the genomic analysis. We find that high migration rates do not disrupt local thermal adaptation, and that the resulting standing genetic variation should be sufficient to fuel rapid region-wide adaptation of A. millepora populations to gradual warming over the next 20-50 coral generations (100-250 years). Further adaptation based on novel mutations might also be possible, but this depends on the currently unknown genetic parameters underlying coral thermal tolerance and the rate of warming realized. Despite this capacity for adaptation, our model predicts that coral populations would become increasingly sensitive to random thermal fluctuations such as ENSO cycles or heat waves, which corresponds well with the recent increase in frequency of catastrophic coral bleaching events.
Emerging Vibrio risk at high latitudes in response to ocean warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Baker-Austin, Craig; Trinanes, Joaquin A.; Taylor, Nick G. H.; Hartnell, Rachel; Siitonen, Anja; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime
2013-01-01
There is increasing concern regarding the role of climate change in driving bacterial waterborne infectious diseases. Here we illustrate associations between environmental changes observed in the Baltic area and the recent emergence of Vibrio infections and also forecast future scenarios of the risk of infections in correspondence with predicted warming trends. Using multidecadal long-term sea surface temperature data sets we found that the Baltic Sea is warming at an unprecedented rate. Sea surface temperature trends (1982-2010) indicate a warming pattern of 0.063-0.078°Cyr-1 (6.3-7.8°C per century; refs , ), with recent peak temperatures unequalled in the history of instrumented measurements for this region. These warming patterns have coincided with the unexpected emergence of Vibrio infections in northern Europe, many clustered around the Baltic Sea area. The number and distribution of cases correspond closely with the temporal and spatial peaks in sea surface temperatures. This is among the first empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change is driving the emergence of Vibrio disease in temperate regions through its impact on resident bacterial communities, implying that this process is reshaping the distribution of infectious diseases across global scales.
Understanding the tropical warm temperature bias simulated by climate models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio
2017-04-01
The state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models have difficulties in representing the observed spatial pattern of surface tempertaure. A majority of them suffers a warm bias in the tropical subsiding regions located over the eastern parts of oceans. These regions are usually covered by low-level clouds scattered from stratus along the coasts to more vertically developed shallow cumulus farther from them. Models usually fail to represent accurately this transition. Here we investigate physical drivers of this warm bias in CMIP5 models through a near-surface energy budget perspective. We show that overestimated solar insolation due to a lack of stratocumulus mostly explains the warm bias. This bias also arises partly from inter-model differences in surface fluxes that could be traced to differences in near-surface relative humidity and air-sea temperature gradient. We investigate the role of the atmosphere in driving surface biases by comparing historical and atmopsheric (AMIP) experiments. We show that some differences in boundary-layer characteristics, mostly those related to cloud fraction and relative humidity, are already present in AMIP experiments and may be the drivers of coupled biases. This gives insights in how models can be improved for better simulations of the tropical climate.
Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests
Calaveri, Molly A.; Reed, Sasha C.; Smith, W. Kolby; Wood, Tana E.
2015-01-01
Although tropical forests account for only a fraction of the planet's terrestrial surface, they exchange more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other biome on Earth, and thus play a disproportionate role in the global climate. In the next 20 years, the tropics will experience unprecedented warming, yet there is exceedingly high uncertainty about their potential responses to this imminent climatic change. Here, we prioritize research approaches given both funding and logistical constraints in order to resolve major uncertainties about how tropical forests function and also to improve predictive capacity of earth system models. We investigate overall model uncertainty of tropical latitudes and explore the scientific benefits and inevitable trade-offs inherent in large-scale manipulative field experiments. With a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 analysis, we found that model variability in projected net ecosystem production was nearly 3 times greater in the tropics than for any other latitude. Through a review of the most current literature, we concluded that manipulative warming experiments are vital to accurately predict future tropical forest carbon balance, and we further recommend the establishment of a network of comparable studies spanning gradients of precipitation, edaphic qualities, plant types, and/or land use change. We provide arguments for long-term, single-factor warming experiments that incorporate warming of the most biogeochemically active ecosystem components (i.e. leaves, roots, soil microbes). Hypothesis testing of underlying mechanisms should be a priority, along with improving model parameterization and constraints. No single tropical forest is representative of all tropical forests; therefore logistical feasibility should be the most important consideration for locating large-scale manipulative experiments. Above all, we advocate for multi-faceted research programs, and we offer arguments for what we consider the most
Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests.
Cavaleri, Molly A; Reed, Sasha C; Smith, W Kolby; Wood, Tana E
2015-06-01
Although tropical forests account for only a fraction of the planet's terrestrial surface, they exchange more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other biome on Earth, and thus play a disproportionate role in the global climate. In the next 20 years, the tropics will experience unprecedented warming, yet there is exceedingly high uncertainty about their potential responses to this imminent climatic change. Here, we prioritize research approaches given both funding and logistical constraints in order to resolve major uncertainties about how tropical forests function and also to improve predictive capacity of earth system models. We investigate overall model uncertainty of tropical latitudes and explore the scientific benefits and inevitable trade-offs inherent in large-scale manipulative field experiments. With a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 analysis, we found that model variability in projected net ecosystem production was nearly 3 times greater in the tropics than for any other latitude. Through a review of the most current literature, we concluded that manipulative warming experiments are vital to accurately predict future tropical forest carbon balance, and we further recommend the establishment of a network of comparable studies spanning gradients of precipitation, edaphic qualities, plant types, and/or land use change. We provide arguments for long-term, single-factor warming experiments that incorporate warming of the most biogeochemically active ecosystem components (i.e. leaves, roots, soil microbes). Hypothesis testing of underlying mechanisms should be a priority, along with improving model parameterization and constraints. No single tropical forest is representative of all tropical forests; therefore logistical feasibility should be the most important consideration for locating large-scale manipulative experiments. Above all, we advocate for multi-faceted research programs, and we offer arguments for what we consider the most
Spatiotemporal variability in surface energy balance across tundra, snow and ice in Greenland.
Lund, Magnus; Stiegler, Christian; Abermann, Jakob; Citterio, Michele; Hansen, Birger U; van As, Dirk
2017-02-01
The surface energy balance (SEB) is essential for understanding the coupled cryosphere-atmosphere system in the Arctic. In this study, we investigate the spatiotemporal variability in SEB across tundra, snow and ice. During the snow-free period, the main energy sink for ice sites is surface melt. For tundra, energy is used for sensible and latent heat flux and soil heat flux leading to permafrost thaw. Longer snow-free period increases melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and glaciers and may promote tundra permafrost thaw. During winter, clouds have a warming effect across surface types whereas during summer clouds have a cooling effect over tundra and a warming effect over ice, reflecting the spatial variation in albedo. The complex interactions between factors affecting SEB across surface types remain a challenge for understanding current and future conditions. Extended monitoring activities coupled with modelling efforts are essential for assessing the impact of warming in the Arctic.
The Effect of Postoperative Skin-Surface Warming on Oxygen Consumption and the Shivering Threshold
Alfonsi, P.; Nourredine, K.; Adam, F.; Chauvin, M.; Sessler, D. I.
2005-01-01
Summary Cutaneous warming is reportedly an effective treatment for shivering during epidural and after general anaesthesia. We quantified the efficacy of cutaneous warming as a treatment for shivering. Unwarmed surgical patients (final intraoperative core temperatures ≈35°C) were randomly assigned to be covered with a blanket (n=9) or full-body forced-air cover (n=9). Shivering was evaluated clinically and by oxygen consumption. Forced-air heating increased mean-skin temperature (35.7±0.4 °C vs. 33.2±0.8°C, P< 0.0001) and lowered core temperature at the shivering threshold (35.7±0.2 °C vs. 36.4±0.2°C, P< 0.0001). Active warming improved thermal comfort and significantly reduced oxygen consumption from 9.7±4.4 to 5.6±1.9 mL·min−1·kg−1(P=0.038). However, duration of shivering was similar in the two groups (37±11 min [warming] and 36±10 min [control]). Core temperature thus contributed about four times as much as skin temperature to control of shivering. Cutaneous warming improved thermal comfort and reduced metabolic stress in postoperative patients, but did not quickly obliterate shivering. PMID:14705689
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Reusch, D. B.
2017-12-01
Melting on the surface of the Greenland ice sheet has been changing dramatically as global air temperatures have increased in recent decades, including melt extent often exceeding the 1981-2010 median through much of the melt season and the onset of intermittent melt moving to earlier in the year. To evaluate potential future change, we investigate surface melting characteristics under both "low" (limited to 1.5 °C) and "high" (RCP 8.5) warming scenarios including analysis of differences in scenario outcomes. Climatologies of melt-relevant variables are developed from two publicly available ensembles of CESM1-CAM5-BGC GCM runs: the 30-member Large Ensemble (CESM LE; Kay et al. 2015) for historical calibration and the RCP 8.5 scenario and the 11-member Low Warming ensemble (CESM LW; Sanderson et al. 2017) for the 1.5 °C scenario. For higher spatial resolution (15 km) and improved polar-centric model physics, we also apply the regional forecast model Polar WRF to decadal subsets (1996-2005; 2071-80) using GCM data archived at sub-daily resolution for boundary conditions. Models were skill-tested against ERA-Interim Reanalysis (ERAI) and AWS observations. For example, CESM LE tends to overpredict both maximum (above-freezing) and minimum daily average surface temperatures compared to observations from the GC-Net Swiss Camp AWS. Ensembles of members differing only by initial conditions allow us to also estimate intramodel uncertainty. Historical (1981-2000) CESM LE spatially averaged July temperatures are 2 +/- 0.2 °C cooler than ERAI while local anomalies in individual members reach up to +/- 2 °C. As expected, Greenland does not escape future (2081-2100) warming (and expectations of more widespread surface melting) even in the LW scenario, but positive changes versus ERAI are mostly coastal (2-3 °C) with the interior showing only minor change (+/- 1 °C). In contrast, under RCP 8.5, the entire ice sheet has warmed by 2-6 °C, or a median increase of 5 °C versus
Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.
2017-01-01
Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.
Ma, H. -Y.; Klein, S. A.; Xie, S.; ...
2018-02-27
Many weather forecast and climate models simulate warm surface air temperature (T 2m) biases over midlatitude continents during the summertime, especially over the Great Plains. We present here one of a series of papers from a multimodel intercomparison project (CAUSES: Cloud Above the United States and Errors at the Surface), which aims to evaluate the role of cloud, radiation, and precipitation biases in contributing to the T 2m bias using a short-term hindcast approach during the spring and summer of 2011. Observations are mainly from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains sites. The present study examines the contributions ofmore » surface energy budget errors. All participating models simulate too much net shortwave and longwave fluxes at the surface but with no consistent mean bias sign in turbulent fluxes over the Central United States and Southern Great Plains. Nevertheless, biases in the net shortwave and downward longwave fluxes as well as surface evaporative fraction (EF) are contributors to T 2m bias. Radiation biases are largely affected by cloud simulations, while EF bias is largely affected by soil moisture modulated by seasonal accumulated precipitation and evaporation. An approximate equation based upon the surface energy budget is derived to further quantify the magnitudes of radiation and EF contributions to T 2m bias. Our analysis ascribes that a large EF underestimate is the dominant source of error in all models with a large positive temperature bias, whereas an EF overestimate compensates for an excess of absorbed shortwave radiation in nearly all the models with the smallest temperature bias.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Ma, H. -Y.; Klein, S. A.; Xie, S.
Many weather forecast and climate models simulate warm surface air temperature (T 2m) biases over midlatitude continents during the summertime, especially over the Great Plains. We present here one of a series of papers from a multimodel intercomparison project (CAUSES: Cloud Above the United States and Errors at the Surface), which aims to evaluate the role of cloud, radiation, and precipitation biases in contributing to the T 2m bias using a short-term hindcast approach during the spring and summer of 2011. Observations are mainly from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains sites. The present study examines the contributions ofmore » surface energy budget errors. All participating models simulate too much net shortwave and longwave fluxes at the surface but with no consistent mean bias sign in turbulent fluxes over the Central United States and Southern Great Plains. Nevertheless, biases in the net shortwave and downward longwave fluxes as well as surface evaporative fraction (EF) are contributors to T 2m bias. Radiation biases are largely affected by cloud simulations, while EF bias is largely affected by soil moisture modulated by seasonal accumulated precipitation and evaporation. An approximate equation based upon the surface energy budget is derived to further quantify the magnitudes of radiation and EF contributions to T 2m bias. Our analysis ascribes that a large EF underestimate is the dominant source of error in all models with a large positive temperature bias, whereas an EF overestimate compensates for an excess of absorbed shortwave radiation in nearly all the models with the smallest temperature bias.« less
The Warm Plasma Composition in the Inner Magnetosphere during 2012–2015
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Jahn, J. M.; Goldstein, J.; Reeves, Geoffrey D.
Ionospheric heavy ions play an important role in the dynamics of Earth's magnetosphere. The greater mass and gyro radius of ionospheric oxygen differentiates its behavior from protons at the same energies. Oxygen may have an impact on tail reconnection processes, and it can at least temporarily dominate the energy content of the ring current during geomagnetic storms. At sub-keV energies, multi-species ion populations in the inner magnetosphere form the warm plasma cloak, occupying the energy range between the plasmasphere and the ring current. Lastly, cold lighter ions from the mid-latitude ionosphere create the co-rotating plasmasphere whose outer regions can interactmore » with the plasma cloak, plasma sheet, ring current, and outer electron belt. Here in this paper we present a statistical view of warm, cloak-like ion populations in the inner magnetosphere, contrasting in particular the warm plasma composition during quiet and active times. We study the relative abundances and absolute densities of warm plasma measured by the Van Allen Probes, whose two spacecraft cover the inner magnetosphere from plasmaspheric altitudes close to Earth to just inside geostationary orbit. We observe that warm (>30 eV) oxygen is most abundant closer to the plasmasphere boundary whereas warm hydrogen dominates closer to geostationary orbit. Warm helium is usually a minor constituent, but shows a noticeable enhancement in the near-Earth dusk sector.« less
The Warm Plasma Composition in the Inner Magnetosphere during 2012–2015
Jahn, J. M.; Goldstein, J.; Reeves, Geoffrey D.; ...
2017-09-11
Ionospheric heavy ions play an important role in the dynamics of Earth's magnetosphere. The greater mass and gyro radius of ionospheric oxygen differentiates its behavior from protons at the same energies. Oxygen may have an impact on tail reconnection processes, and it can at least temporarily dominate the energy content of the ring current during geomagnetic storms. At sub-keV energies, multi-species ion populations in the inner magnetosphere form the warm plasma cloak, occupying the energy range between the plasmasphere and the ring current. Lastly, cold lighter ions from the mid-latitude ionosphere create the co-rotating plasmasphere whose outer regions can interactmore » with the plasma cloak, plasma sheet, ring current, and outer electron belt. Here in this paper we present a statistical view of warm, cloak-like ion populations in the inner magnetosphere, contrasting in particular the warm plasma composition during quiet and active times. We study the relative abundances and absolute densities of warm plasma measured by the Van Allen Probes, whose two spacecraft cover the inner magnetosphere from plasmaspheric altitudes close to Earth to just inside geostationary orbit. We observe that warm (>30 eV) oxygen is most abundant closer to the plasmasphere boundary whereas warm hydrogen dominates closer to geostationary orbit. Warm helium is usually a minor constituent, but shows a noticeable enhancement in the near-Earth dusk sector.« less
Past and future warming of a deep European lake (Lake Lugano): What are the climatic drivers?
Lepori, Fabio; Roberts, James J.
2015-01-01
We used four decades (1972–2013) of temperature data from Lake Lugano, Switzerland and Italy, to address the hypotheses that: [i] the lake has been warming; [ii] part of the warming reflects global trends and is independent from climatic oscillations and [iii] the lake will continue to warm until the end of the 21st century. During the time spanned by our data, the surface waters of the lake (0–5 m) warmed at rates of 0.2–0.9 °C per decade, depending on season. The temperature of the deep waters (50-m bottom) displayed a rising trend in a meromictic basin of the lake and a sawtooth pattern in the other basin, which is holomictic. Long-term variation in surfacewater temperature correlated to global warming and multidecadal variation in two climatic oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the East Atlantic Pattern (EA).However, we did not detect an influence of the EA on the lake's temperature (as separate from the effect of global warming). Moreover, the effect of the AMO, estimated to a maximum of +1 °C, was not sufficient to explain the observed temperature increase (+2–3 °C in summer). Based on regional climate projections, we predicted that the lake will continue to warm at least until the end of the 21st century. Our results strongly suggest that the warming of Lake Lugano is tied to globalclimate change. To sustain current ecosystem conditions in Lake Lugano, we suggest that manage- ment plans that curtail eutrophication and (or) mitigation of global warming be pursued.
Surface currents in the Canary Basin from drifter observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhou, Meng; Paduan, Jeffrey D.; Niiler, Pearn P.
2000-09-01
Satellite-tracked drifting buoys, deployed in the Canary Basin as part of the Subduction Experiment between July 1991 and October 1993 and the French Semaphore Experiment during October 1993, were used to obtain a description of surface currents and temperature in the Canary Basin. The study focuses on surface water convergence, eddy energy production, and heat transport. The Azores Current associated with the subtropical convergence zone is clearly visible at 34°N, and bifurcates around 22°W, with the major branch of the current circling the Madeira plateau and joining the Canary Current along the continental slope. Eddy kinetic energy maxima are found along the Azores Current. The mean current revealed a region of maximum convergence north of the Azores Current around longitude 29°W occurring with a negative heating anomaly and positive work done by the Reynolds stress. The southward meridional temperature fluxes in the Ekman layer (0-50 m) between 37°W and the African and European coast are estimated between -0.076±0.022×l015 W, produced by mean southward volume transport in our study area. The residual between local surface heat fluxes and horizontal convergence of heat implies a vertical heat convergence process associated with mesoscale temperature and flow fields.
Diagnostic Characteristics of Submesoscale Coastal Surface Currents
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Soh, Hyun Sup; Kim, Sung Yong
2018-03-01
Submesoscale kinetic energy (KE) spectra and fluxes at the length scales ranging from 2 to 25 km are estimated from hourly and O(1) km-scale coastal surface current maps observed from shore-based high-frequency radars off southern San Diego. The one-dimensional wave number-domain KE spectra of the surface currents have decay slopes between k-2 and k-3 at a wave number (k) of 0.5 km-1. The KE spectra exhibit anisotropy associated with anisotropic circulation, which is constrained by the shoreline and bottom bathymetry. Moreover, the KE spectra exhibit weak seasonality related to the regional submesoscale eddies and low-frequency circulation with weak seasonal variability. The estimated KE fluxes are categorized into four cases of purely forward cascades and inverse cascades at all wave numbers, inverse-then-forward cascades with a single zero-crossing within the range of wave numbers (0.04 to 0.5 km-1), and residuals, which account for approximately 33%, 39%, 19%, and 9% of the total number of realizations, respectively. An injection scale where forward enstrophy cascade and inverse energy cascade occur is estimated to be 5 to 10 km from the cases of the inverse-then-forward cascade, which is consistent with the length scales of the regional submesoscale eddies. Thus, the regional submesoscale processes are initiated by surface frontogenesis due to the weak seasonal low-frequency surface circulation and topography-related currents, then maintained by baroclinic instabilities associated with the seasonal mixed layer and O(10) km-scale submesoscale eddies with weak seasonal variability.
Surface Currents and Winds at the Delaware Bay Mouth
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Muscarella, P A; Barton, N P; Lipphardt, B L
2011-04-06
Knowledge of the circulation of estuaries and adjacent shelf waters has relied on hydrographic measurements, moorings, and local wind observations usually removed from the region of interest. Although these observations are certainly sufficient to identify major characteristics, they lack both spatial resolution and temporal coverage. High resolution synoptic observations are required to identify important coastal processes at smaller scales. Long observation periods are needed to properly sample low-frequency processes that may also be important. The introduction of high-frequency (HF) radar measurements and regional wind models for coastal studies is changing this situation. Here we analyze synoptic, high-resolution surface winds andmore » currents in the Delaware Bay mouth over an eight-month period (October 2007 through May 2008). The surface currents were measured by two high-frequency radars while the surface winds were extracted from a data-assimilating regional wind model. To illustrate the utility of these monitoring tools we focus on two 45-day periods which previously were shown to present contrasting pictures of the circulation. One, the low-outflow period is from 1 October through 14 November 2007; the other is the high-outflow period from 3 March through 16 April 2008. The large-scale characteristics noted by previous workers are clearly corroborated. Specifically the M2 tide dominates the surface currents, and the Delaware Bay outflow plume is clearly evident in the low frequency currents. Several new aspects of the surface circulation were also identified. These include a map of the spatial variability of the M2 tide (validating an earlier model study), persistent low-frequency cross-mouth flow, and a rapid response of the surface currents to a changing wind field. However, strong wind episodes did not persist long enough to set up a sustained Ekman response.« less
Current spring warming as a driver of selection on reproductive timing in a wild passerine.
Marrot, Pascal; Charmantier, Anne; Blondel, Jacques; Garant, Dany
2018-05-01
Evolutionary adaptation as a response to climate change is expected for fitness-related traits affected by climate and exhibiting genetic variance. Although the relationship between warmer spring temperature and earlier timing of reproduction is well documented, quantifications and predictions of the impact of global warming on natural selection acting on phenology in wild populations remain rare. If global warming affects fitness in a similar way across individuals within a population, or if fitness consequences are independent of phenotypic variation in key-adaptive traits, then no evolutionary response is expected for these traits. Here, we quantified the selection pressures acting on laying date during a 24-year monitoring of blue tits in southern Mediterranean France, a hot spot of climate warming. We explored the temporal fluctuation in annual selection gradients and we determined its temperature-related drivers. We first investigated the month-specific warming since 1970 in our study site and tested its influence on selection pressures, using a model averaging approach. Then, we quantified the selection strength associated with temperature anomalies experienced by the blue tit population. We found that natural selection acting on laying date significantly fluctuated both in magnitude and in sign across years. After identifying a significant warming in spring and summer, we showed that warmer daily maximum temperatures in April were significantly associated with stronger selection pressures for reproductive timing. Our results indicated an increase in the strength of selection by 46% for every +1°C anomaly. Our results confirm the general assumption that recent climate change translates into strong selection favouring earlier breeders in passerine birds. Our findings also suggest that differences in fitness among individuals varying in their breeding phenology increase with climate warming. Such climate-driven influence on the strength of directional
Effect of Common Cryoprotectants on Critical Warming Rates and Ice Formation in Aqueous Solutions
Hopkins, Jesse B.; Badeau, Ryan; Warkentin, Matthew; Thorne, Robert E.
2012-01-01
Ice formation on warming is of comparable or greater importance to ice formation on cooling in determining survival of cryopreserved samples. Critical warming rates required for ice-free warming of vitrified aqueous solutions of glycerol, dimethyl sulfoxide, ethylene glycol, polyethylene glycol 200 and sucrose have been measured for warming rates of order 10 to 104 K/s. Critical warming rates are typically one to three orders of magnitude larger than critical cooling rates. Warming rates vary strongly with cooling rates, perhaps due to the presence of small ice fractions in nominally vitrified samples. Critical warming and cooling rate data spanning orders of magnitude in rates provide rigorous tests of ice nucleation and growth models and their assumed input parameters. Current models with current best estimates for input parameters provide a reasonable account of critical warming rates for glycerol solutions at high concentrations/low rates, but overestimate both critical warming and cooling rates by orders of magnitude at lower concentrations and larger rates. In vitrification protocols, minimizing concentrations of potentially damaging cryoprotectants while minimizing ice formation will require ultrafast warming rates, as well as fast cooling rates to minimize the required warming rates. PMID:22728046
Enhanced Climatic Warming in the Tibetan Plateau Due to Double CO2: A Model Study
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chen, Baode; Chao, Winston C.; Liu, Xiao-Dong; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
The NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) regional climate model (RegCM2) with time-dependent lateral meteorological fields provided by a 130-year transient increasing CO2 simulation of the NCAR Climate System Model (CSM) has been used to investigate the mechanism of enhanced ground temperature warming over the TP (Tibetan Plateau). From our model results, a remarkable tendency of warming increasing with elevation is found for the winter season, and elevation dependency of warming is not clearly recognized in the summer season. This simulated feature of elevation dependency of ground temperature is consistent with observations. Based on an analysis of surface energy budget, the short wave solar radiation absorbed at the surface plus downward long wave flux reaching the surface shows a strong elevation dependency, and is mostly responsible for enhanced surface warming over the TP. At lower elevations, the precipitation forced by topography is enhanced due to an increase in water vapor supply resulted from a warming in the atmosphere induced by doubling CO2. This precipitation enhancement must be associated with an increase in clouds, which results in a decline in solar flux reaching surface. At higher elevations, large snow depletion is detected in the 2xCO2run. It leads to a decrease in albedo, therefore more solar flux is absorbed at the surface. On the other hand, much more uniform increase in downward long wave flux reaching the surface is found. The combination of these effects (i.e. decrease in solar flux at lower elevations, increase in solar flux at higher elevation and more uniform increase in downward long wave flux) results in elevation dependency of enhanced ground temperature warming over the TP.
Suppressed midlatitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Qigang; Cheng, Luyao; Chan, Duo; Yao, Yonghong; Hu, Haibo; Yao, Ying
2016-03-01
Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heat waves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH midlatitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation(AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH midlatitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.
Is Europa's Subsurface Water Ocean Warm?
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Melosh, H. J.; Ekholm, A. G.; Showman, A. P.; Lorenz, R. D.
2002-01-01
Europa's subsurface water ocean may be warm: that is, at the temperature of water's maximum density. This provides a natural explanation of chaos melt-through events and leads to a correct estimate of the age of its surface. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Y.; Stek, P. C.; Su, H.; Jiang, J. H.; Livesey, N. J.; Santee, M. L.
2014-12-01
Over the past century, global average surface temperature has warmed by about 0.16°C/decade, largely due to anthropogenic increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases. However, the trend in global surface temperatures has been nearly flat since 2000, raising a question regarding the exploration of the drivers of climate change. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Previous studies suggested that the sudden decrease of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) around 2000 may have contributed to the stall of global warming. Since 2004, the SWV observed by Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura satellite has shown a slow recovery. The role of recent SWV variations in global warming has not been quantified. We employ a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, the NCAR CESM, to address this issue. It is found that the CESM underestimates the stratospheric water vapor by about 1 ppmv due to limited representations of the stratospheric dynamic and chemical processes important for water vapor variabilities. By nudging the modeled SWV to the MLS observation, we find that increasing SWV by 1 ppmv produces a robust surface warming about 0.2°C in global-mean when the model reaches equilibrium. Conversely, the sudden drop of SWV from 2000 to 2004 would cause a surface cooling about -0.08°C in global-mean. On the other hand, imposing the observed linear trend of SWV based on the 10-year observation of MLS in the CESM yields a rather slow surface warming, about 0.04°C/decade. Our model experiments suggest that SWV contributes positively to the global surface temperature variation, although it may not be the dominant factor that drives the recent global warming hiatus. Additional sensitivity experiments show that the impact of SWV on surface climate is mostly governed by the SWV amount at 100 hPa in the tropics. Furthermore, the atmospheric model simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST) show that the inter-annual variation of SWV follows that of SST
Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Robock, Alan; Mao, Jianping
1992-01-01
An examination of the Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows warming over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95-percent level. This pattern is found in the first winter after tropical eruptions, in the first or second winter after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second winter after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of warming, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.
Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Robock, Alan; Mao, Jianping
1992-01-01
An examination of the Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows warming over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95 percent level. This pattern is found in the first winter after tropical eruptions, in the first or second winter after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second winter after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of warming, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.
Surface currents on the plasma-vacuum interface in MHD equilibria
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hanson, James D.
2016-10-01
The VMEC non-axisymmetric MHD equilibrium code can compute free-boundary equilibria. Since VMEC assumes that magnetic fields within the plasma form closed and nested flux surfaces, the plasma-vacuum interface is a flux surface, and the total magnetic field there has no normal component. VMEC imposes this condition of zero normal field using the potential formulation of Merkel, and solves a Neumann problem for the magnetic potential in the exterior region. This boundary condition necessarily admits the possibility of a surface current on the plasma-vacuum interface. While this current may be small in MHD equilibrium, this current may be readily computed in terms of a magnetic potential in both the interior and exterior regions. Examples of the surface current for VMEC equilibria will be shown. This material is based upon work supported by Auburn University and the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Fusion Energy Sciences under Award Number DE-FG02-03ER54692.
Continuous tonic spike activity in spider warm cells in the absence of sensory input.
Gingl, E; Tichy, H
2006-09-01
The warm cells of the spider tarsal organ respond very sensitively to low-amplitude changes in temperature and discharge continuously as the rate of change in temperature reaches zero. To test whether the continuous tonic discharge remains without sensory input, we blocked the warm cell's receptive region by Epoxy glue. The activity continued in this situation, but its dependence on temperature changes was strongly reduced. We interpret this to mean that the warm cells exhibit specific intrinsic properties that underlie the generation of the tonic discharge. Experiments with electrical stimulation confirmed the observation that the warm cells persist in activity without an external drive. In warm cells with blocked receptive region, the response curves describing the relationship between the tonic discharge and the level of depolarization is the same for different temperatures. In warm cells with intact receptive region, the curves are shifted upward with rising temperature, as if the injected current is simply added to the receptor current. This indicates a modulating effect of the receptor current on the tonic discharge. Stimulation causes a change in the tonic discharge rate and thereby enables individual warm cells to signal the direction in addition to the magnitude of temperature changes.
Estimating Advective Near-surface Currents from Ocean Color Satellite Images
2015-01-01
of surface current information. The present study uses the sequential ocean color products provided by the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) and...on the SuomiNational Polar-Orbiting Partner- ship (S-NPP) satellite. The GOCI is the world’s first geostationary orbit satellite sensor over the...used to extract the near-surface currents by the MCC algorithm. We not only demonstrate the retrieval of currents from the geostationary satellite ocean
Lower-limb warming improves sleep quality in elderly people living in nursing homes.
Oshima-Saeki, Chika; Taniho, Yuiko; Arita, Hiromi; Fujimoto, Etsuko
2017-01-01
Sleep disturbances are common in older people. This study was conducted to examine the effects of a hot pack, which was used to warm the lower limbs, on the sleep of elderly people living in a nursing home. This is a prospective cohort involving seven elderly women. Subjects aged 74-93 years old were treated by warming the lower limbs for 40 minutes using hot packs every night over 8 weeks. A hot pack made of a dense polymer and warmed in a microwave oven was used as a warming device. In the first and last week, the subjects were required to wear an activity monitor to determine their sleep-awake status. During the second to ninth week, they received limb-warming treatment by a hot pack heated to 42ºC for 40 min every night. Surface skin temperature data were collected by thermographic measurement. As a result, lower-limb warming by a hot pack significantly improved the quality of sleep in the subjects. During warming, the surface temperature of the hands and face rose by approximately 0.5-1.5ºC. This study showed that lower-limb warming with a hot pack reduced sleep latency and wake episodes after sleep onset; thus, improving the quality of sleep in elderly people living in a nursing home.
Climate. Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration.
Chen, Xianyao; Tung, Ka-Kit
2014-08-22
A vacillating global heat sink at intermediate ocean depths is associated with different climate regimes of surface warming under anthropogenic forcing: The latter part of the 20th century saw rapid global warming as more heat stayed near the surface. In the 21st century, surface warming slowed as more heat moved into deeper oceans. In situ and reanalyzed data are used to trace the pathways of ocean heat uptake. In addition to the shallow La Niña-like patterns in the Pacific that were the previous focus, we found that the slowdown is mainly caused by heat transported to deeper layers in the Atlantic and the Southern oceans, initiated by a recurrent salinity anomaly in the subpolar North Atlantic. Cooling periods associated with the latter deeper heat-sequestration mechanism historically lasted 20 to 35 years. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude.
Deutsch, Curtis A; Tewksbury, Joshua J; Huey, Raymond B; Sheldon, Kimberly S; Ghalambor, Cameron K; Haak, David C; Martin, Paul R
2008-05-06
The impact of anthropogenic climate change on terrestrial organisms is often predicted to increase with latitude, in parallel with the rate of warming. Yet the biological impact of rising temperatures also depends on the physiological sensitivity of organisms to temperature change. We integrate empirical fitness curves describing the thermal tolerance of terrestrial insects from around the world with the projected geographic distribution of climate change for the next century to estimate the direct impact of warming on insect fitness across latitude. The results show that warming in the tropics, although relatively small in magnitude, is likely to have the most deleterious consequences because tropical insects are relatively sensitive to temperature change and are currently living very close to their optimal temperature. In contrast, species at higher latitudes have broader thermal tolerance and are living in climates that are currently cooler than their physiological optima, so that warming may even enhance their fitness. Available thermal tolerance data for several vertebrate taxa exhibit similar patterns, suggesting that these results are general for terrestrial ectotherms. Our analyses imply that, in the absence of ameliorating factors such as migration and adaptation, the greatest extinction risks from global warming may be in the tropics, where biological diversity is also greatest.
Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude
Deutsch, Curtis A.; Tewksbury, Joshua J.; Huey, Raymond B.; Sheldon, Kimberly S.; Ghalambor, Cameron K.; Haak, David C.; Martin, Paul R.
2008-01-01
The impact of anthropogenic climate change on terrestrial organisms is often predicted to increase with latitude, in parallel with the rate of warming. Yet the biological impact of rising temperatures also depends on the physiological sensitivity of organisms to temperature change. We integrate empirical fitness curves describing the thermal tolerance of terrestrial insects from around the world with the projected geographic distribution of climate change for the next century to estimate the direct impact of warming on insect fitness across latitude. The results show that warming in the tropics, although relatively small in magnitude, is likely to have the most deleterious consequences because tropical insects are relatively sensitive to temperature change and are currently living very close to their optimal temperature. In contrast, species at higher latitudes have broader thermal tolerance and are living in climates that are currently cooler than their physiological optima, so that warming may even enhance their fitness. Available thermal tolerance data for several vertebrate taxa exhibit similar patterns, suggesting that these results are general for terrestrial ectotherms. Our analyses imply that, in the absence of ameliorating factors such as migration and adaptation, the greatest extinction risks from global warming may be in the tropics, where biological diversity is also greatest. PMID:18458348
Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming.
Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Munguía-Vega, Adrián; Beger, Maria; Del Mar Mancha-Cisneros, Maria; Suárez-Castillo, Alvin N; Gurney, Georgina G; Pressey, Robert L; Gerber, Leah R; Morzaria-Luna, Hem Nalini; Reyes-Bonilla, Héctor; Adams, Vanessa M; Kolb, Melanie; Graham, Erin M; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Castillo-López, Alejandro; Hinojosa-Arango, Gustavo; Petatán-Ramírez, David; Moreno-Baez, Marcia; Godínez-Reyes, Carlos R; Torre, Jorge
2018-02-01
Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Ma, H. -Y.; Klein, S. A.; Xie, S.
Many weather forecasting and climate models simulate a warm surface air temperature (T2m) bias over mid-latitude continents during the summertime, especially over the Great Plains. We present here one of a series of papers from a multi-model intercomparison project (CAUSES: Cloud Above the United States and Errors at the Surface), which aims to evaluate the role of cloud, radiation, and precipitation biases in contributing to T2m bias using a short-term hindcast approach with observations mainly from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site during the period of April to August 2011. The present study examines the contributionmore » of surface energy budget errors to the bias. All participating models simulate higher net shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes at the surface but there is no consistency on signs of biases in latent and sensible heat fluxes over the Central U.S. and ARM SGP. Nevertheless, biases in net shortwave and downward longwave fluxes, as well as surface evaporative fraction (EF) are the main contributors to T2m bias. Radiation biases are largely affected by cloud simulations, while EF is affected by soil moisture modulated by seasonal accumulated precipitation and evaporation. An approximate equation is derived to further quantify the magnitudes of radiation and EF contributions to T2m bias. Our analysis suggests that radiation errors are always an important source of T2m error for long-term climate runs with EF errors either of equal or lesser importance. However, for the short-term hindcasts, EF errors are more important provided a model has a substantial EF bias.« less
Dynamical amplification of Arctic and global warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana; Bobylev, Leonid; Gnatiuk, Natalia; Urazgildeeva, Aleksandra
2015-04-01
The Arctic is coupled with global climate system by the atmosphere and ocean circulation that provides a major contribution to the Arctic energy budget. Therefore increase of meridional heat transport under global warming can impact on its Arctic amplification. Contribution of heat transport to the recent warming in the Arctic, Northern Hemisphere and the globe are estimated on base of reanalysis data, global climate model data and proposed special index. It is shown that significant part of linear trend during last four decades in average surface air temperature in these areas can be attributed to dynamical amplification. This attribution keeps until 400 mb height with progressive decreasing. The Arctic warming is amplified also due to an increase of humidity and cloudiness in the Arctic atmosphere that follow meridional transport gain. From October to January the Arctic warming trends are amplified as a result of ice edge retreat from the Siberian and Alaska coast and the heating of expanded volume of sea water. This investigation is supported with RFBR project 15-05-03512.
Enhanced Climatic Warming Over the Tibetan Plateau Due to Doubling CO2: A Model Study
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chen, Baode; Chao, Winston C.; Liu, Xiaodong; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
A number of studies have presented the evidences that surface climate change associated with global warming at high elevation sites shows more pronounced warming than at low elevations, i.e. an elevation dependency of climatic warming pointed out that snow-albedo feedback may be responsible for the excessive warming in the Swiss Alps. From an ensemble of climate change experiments of increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols using an air-sea coupled climate model, Eyre and Raw (1999) found a marked elevation dependency of the simulated surface screen temperature increase over the Rocky Mountains. Using almost all available instrumental records, Liu and Chen (2000) showed that the main portion of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced significant ground temperature warming since the middlebrows, especially in winter, and that there is a tendency for the warming trend to increase with elevation in the TP as well as its surrounding areas. In this paper, we will investigate the mechanism of elevation dependency of climatic warming in the TP by using a high-resolution regional climate model.
Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents.
Abram, Nerilie J; McGregor, Helen V; Tierney, Jessica E; Evans, Michael N; McKay, Nicholas P; Kaufman, Darrell S
2016-08-25
The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-ad 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.
Enhanced deep ocean ventilation and oxygenation with global warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Froelicher, T. L.; Jaccard, S.; Dunne, J. P.; Paynter, D.; Gruber, N.
2014-12-01
Twenty-first century coupled climate model simulations, observations from the recent past, and theoretical arguments suggest a consistent trend towards warmer ocean temperatures and fresher polar surface oceans in response to increased radiative forcing resulting in increased upper ocean stratification and reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the deep ocean. Paleo-proxy records of the warming at the end of the last ice age, however, suggests a different outcome, namely a better ventilated and oxygenated deep ocean with global warming. Here we use a four thousand year global warming simulation from a comprehensive Earth System Model (GFDL ESM2M) to show that this conundrum is a consequence of different rates of warming and that the deep ocean is actually better ventilated and oxygenated in a future warmer equilibrated climate consistent with paleo-proxy records. The enhanced deep ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean occurs in spite of increased positive surface buoyancy fluxes and a constancy of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds - circumstances that would otherwise be expected to lead to a reduction in deep ocean ventilation. This ventilation recovery occurs through a global scale interaction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation undergoing a multi-centennial recovery after an initial century of transient decrease and transports salinity-rich waters inform the subtropical surface ocean to the Southern Ocean interior on multi-century timescales. The subsequent upwelling of salinity-rich waters in the Southern Ocean strips away the freshwater cap that maintains vertical stability and increases open ocean convection and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Waters. As a result, the global ocean oxygen content and the nutrient supply from the deep ocean to the surface are higher in a warmer ocean. The implications for past and future changes in ocean heat and carbon storage will be discussed.
Permanent transparent color-warming glazes for dimmable and non-dimmable LED bulbs
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Spanard, Jan-Marie A.
2014-02-01
Illuminant metameric failure is frequently experienced when viewing material samples under LED generated light vs. traditional incandescent light. LED light temperatures can be improved with phosphor coatings, but long-wave red light is still generally absent in LED "warm-white" light, resulting in metameric failure of orange-to-red objects. Drawing on techniques developed for the architectural restoration of stained glass, we find that transparent, heat-resistant, permanent, pigmented coatings can be applied to any glass, aluminum or plastic surface of an LED bulb, including the phosphor plate, dome or envelope, to produce warmer visible light than in current warm-light LED bulbs. These glazes can be applied in combination with existing technologies to better tune the LED emitted light or they may be used alone. These pigmented coatings include, but are not limited to, those made by suspending inorganic materials in potassium silicates or durable transparent pigmented resins. The pigmented resin glazes may be produced in either a clear gloss vehicle or an iridescent, light diffusing transparent base. Further, a graduated density of the tinted glazes on dimmable bulbs allow the light to change color as wattage is diminished. The glazes may be applied in the manufacturing of the bulb or marketed to current bulb owners as an after-market product to better tune the thousands of LED light bulbs currently in use.
What Sets the Radial Locations of Warm Debris Disks?
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Ballering, Nicholas P.; Rieke, George H.; Su, Kate Y. L.
The architectures of debris disks encode the history of planet formation in these systems. Studies of debris disks via their spectral energy distributions (SEDs) have found infrared excesses arising from cold dust, warm dust, or a combination of the two. The cold outer belts of many systems have been imaged, facilitating their study in great detail. Far less is known about the warm components, including the origin of the dust. The regularity of the disk temperatures indicates an underlying structure that may be linked to the water snow line. If the dust is generated from collisions in an exo-asteroid belt,more » the dust will likely trace the location of the water snow line in the primordial protoplanetary disk where planetesimal growth was enhanced. If instead the warm dust arises from the inward transport from a reservoir of icy material farther out in the system, the dust location is expected to be set by the current snow line. We analyze the SEDs of a large sample of debris disks with warm components. We find that warm components in single-component systems (those without detectable cold components) follow the primordial snow line rather than the current snow line, so they likely arise from exo-asteroid belts. While the locations of many warm components in two-component systems are also consistent with the primordial snow line, there is more diversity among these systems, suggesting additional effects play a role.« less
Observing mass exchange with the Lofoten Basin using surface drifters
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dugstad, Johannes S.; LaCasce, Joe; Koszalka, Inga M.; Fer, Ilker
2017-04-01
The Lofoten Basin in the Nordic Seas plays a central role in the global overturning circulation, acting as a reservoir for northward-flowing Atlantic water. Substantial heat loss occurs here, permitting the waters to become denser and eventually sink nearer the Arctic. Idealized modeling studies and theoretical arguments suggest the warm water enters the Lofoten Basin via eddy transport from the boundary current over the adjacent continental slope. But there is no observational evidence that this is the major contribution to mass exchange between the warm Atlantic Current and the Basin. How the basin waters exit also remains a mystery. Surface drifters offer an unique possibility to study the pathways of the boundary-basin exchange of mass and heat. We thereby examine trajectories of surface drifters released in the Nordic Seas in the POLEWARD and PROVOLO experiments, and supplemented by historical data from the Global Drifter Array. Contrary to the idea that the boundary current eddies are the main source, the results suggest that fluid is entering the Lofoten Basin from all sides. However, the drifters exit preferentially in the northeast corner of the basin. This asymmetry likely contributes to the extended residence times of the warm Atlantic waters in the Lofoten Basin. We consider various measures to quantify the effect, and test whether this is captured in a high resolution numerical model.
MODIS Global Sea Surface Temperature
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
2002-01-01
Every day the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measures sea surface temperature over the entire globe with high accuracy. This false-color image shows a one-month composite for May 2001. Red and yellow indicates warmer temperatures, green is an intermediate value, while blues and then purples are progressively colder values. The new MODIS sea surface temperature product will be particularly useful in studies of temperature anomalies, such as El Nino, as well as research into how air-sea interactions drive changes in weather and climate patterns. In the high resolution image, notice the amazing detail in some of the regional current patterns. For instance, notice the cold water currents that move from Antarctica northward along South America's west coast. These cold, deep waters upwell along an equatorial swath around and to the west of the Galapagos Islands. Note the warm, wide currents of the Gulf Stream moving up the United States' east coast, carrying Caribbean warmth toward Newfoundland and across the Atlantic toward Western Europe. Note the warm tongue of water extending from Africa's east coast to well south of the Cape of Good Hope. MODIS was launched in December 1999 aboard NASA's Terra satellite. For more details on this and other MODIS data products, please see NASA Unveils Spectacular Suite of New Global Data Products from MODIS. Image courtesy MODIS Ocean Group, NASA GSFC, and the University of Miami
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sedlar, J.
2015-12-01
Atmospheric advection of heat and moisture from lower latitudes to the high-latitude Arctic is a critical component of Earth's energy cycle. Large-scale advective events have been shown to make up a significant portion of the moist static energy budget of the Arctic atmosphere, even though such events are typically infrequent. The transport of heat and moisture over surfaces covered by ice and snow results in dynamic changes to the boundary layer structure, stability and turbulence, as well as to diabatic processes such as cloud distribution, microphysics and subsequent radiative effects. Recent studies have identified advection into the Arctic as a key mechanism for modulating the melt and freeze of snow and sea ice, via modification to all-sky longwave radiation. This paper examines the radiative impact during summer of such Arctic advective events at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), considering also the important role they play for the surface energy budget. Using infrared sounder measurements from the AIRS satellite, the summer frequency of significantly stable and moist advective events from 2003-2014 are characterized; justification of AIRS profiles over the Arctic are made using radiosoundings during a 3-month transect (ACSE) across the Eastern Arctic basin. One such event was observed within the East Siberian Sea in August 2014 during ACSE, providing in situ verification on the robustness and capability of AIRS to monitor advective cases. Results will highlight the important surface warming aspect of stable, moist instrusions. However a paradox emerges as such events also result in a cooling at the TOA evident on monthly mean TOA radiation. Thus such events have a climatic importance over ice and snow covered surfaces across the Arctic. ERA-Interim reanalyses are examined to provide a longer term perspective on the frequency of such events as well as providing capability to estimate meridional fluxes of moist static energy.
McGovern, P D; Albrecht, M; Belani, K G; Nachtsheim, C; Partington, P F; Carluke, I; Reed, M R
2011-11-01
We investigated the capacity of patient warming devices to disrupt the ultra-clean airflow system. We compared the effects of two patient warming technologies, forced-air and conductive fabric, on operating theatre ventilation during simulated hip replacement and lumbar spinal procedures using a mannequin as a patient. Infection data were reviewed to determine whether joint infection rates were associated with the type of patient warming device that was used. Neutral-buoyancy detergent bubbles were released adjacent to the mannequin's head and at floor level to assess the movement of non-sterile air into the clean airflow over the surgical site. During simulated hip replacement, bubble counts over the surgical site were greater for forced-air than for conductive fabric warming when the anaesthesia/surgery drape was laid down (p = 0.010) and at half-height (p < 0.001). For lumbar surgery, forced-air warming generated convection currents that mobilised floor air into the surgical site area. Conductive fabric warming had no such effect. A significant increase in deep joint infection, as demonstrated by an elevated infection odds ratio (3.8, p = 0.024), was identified during a period when forced-air warming was used compared to a period when conductive fabric warming was used. Air-free warming is, therefore, recommended over forced-air warming for orthopaedic procedures.
The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus
Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn
2015-01-01
Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes. PMID:26568024
The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus.
Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn
2015-11-16
Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.
Will the Arctic Land Surface become Wetter or Drier in Response to a Warming Climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hinzman, L. D.; Rawlins, M.; Serreze, M.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Walsh, J. E.
2015-12-01
There is much concern about a potentially "accelerated" hydrologic cycle, with associated extremes in weather and climate-related phenomena. Whether this translates into wetter or drier conditions across arctic landscapes remains an open question. Arctic ecosystems differ substantially from those in temperate regions, largely due to the interactions of extremes in climate and land surface characteristics. Ice-rich permafrost prevents percolation of rainfall or snowmelt water, often maintaining a moist to saturated active layer where the permafrost table is shallow. Permafrost may also block the lateral movement of groundwater, and act as a confining unit for water in sub- or intra-permafrost aquifers. However, as permafrost degrades, profound changes in interactions between groundwater and surface water occur that affect the partitioning among the water balance components with subsequent impacts to the surface energy balance and essential ecosystem processes. Most simulations of arctic climate project sustained increases in temperature and gradual increases in precipitation over the 21st century. However, most climatic models do not correctly represent the essential controls that permafrost exerts on hydrological, ecological, and climatological processes. If warming continues as projected, we expect large-scale changes in surface hydrology as permafrost degrades. Where groundwater gradients are downward (i.e. surface water will infiltrate to subsurface groundwater), as in most cases, we may expect improved drainage and drier soils, which would result in reduced evaporation and transpiration (ET). In some special cases, where the groundwater gradient is upward (as in many wetlands or springs) surface soils may become wetter or inundated as permafrost degrades. Further, since soil moisture is a primary factor controlling ecosystem processes, interactions between ecosystems, GHG emissions, and high-latitude climate must also be considered highly uncertain. These inter
Wang, Kang; Zhang, Tingjun; Zhang, Xiangdong; Clow, Gary D.; Jafarov, Elchin E.; Overeem, Irina; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Peng, Xiaoqing; Cao, Bin
2017-01-01
Historically, in situ measurements have been notoriously sparse over the Arctic. As a consequence, the existing gridded data of surface air temperature (SAT) may have large biases in estimating the warming trend in this region. Using data from an expanded monitoring network with 31 stations in the Alaskan Arctic, we demonstrate that the SAT has increased by 2.19°C in this region, or at a rate of 0.23°C/decade during 1921–2015. Meanwhile, we found that the SAT warmed at 0.71°C/decade over 1998–2015, which is 2 to 3 times faster than the rate established from the gridded data sets. Focusing on the “hiatus” period 1998–2012 as identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the SAT has increased at 0.45°C/decade, which captures more than 90% of the regional trend for 1951–2012. We suggest that sparse in situ measurements are responsible for underestimation of the SAT change in the gridded data sets. It is likely that enhanced climate warming may also have happened in the other regions of the Arctic since the late 1990s but left undetected because of incomplete observational coverage.
Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Moore, J. Keith; Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; Britten, Gregory L.; Lindsay, Keith; Long, Matthew; Doney, Scott C.; Mahowald, Natalie; Hoffman, Forrest; Randerson, James T.
2018-03-01
Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease by more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.
Process contributions to the intermodel spread in amplified Arctic warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Boeke, R.; Taylor, P. C.
2016-12-01
The Arctic is warming at a rate more than twice the global average. This robust climate system response to an external forcing is referred to as Arctic Amplification (AA). While Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate models simulate AA, the largest intermodel spread in projected warming is also found in the Arctic. Quantifying the amount of polar warming relative to global warming influences how society adapts to climate change; a 2°C increase in global mean temperature would result in a polar warming between 4-8°C according to the intermodel spread in CMIP5 simulations. A trove of previous work has considered AA diagnostically using variations in the surface energy budget to attribute the intermodel spread in AA to an assortment of feedbacks—surface albedo, cloud, surface turbulent flux, and atmospheric and oceanic energy transport. We consider a systems-thinking approach treating AA as a process that evolves over time. We hypothesize that two specific components of the AA process are most important and influence the intermodel spread. (1) The inability of the Arctic system to effectively remove excess heat sourced from natural variability. The change in the efficiency of the `Arctic air conditioner' is thought to be due to thinner and less extensive sea ice and the resulting ice albedo feedback. (2) The process through which energy is stored in the ocean and exchanged with the atmosphere within the context of the sea ice annual cycle is also important. This study uses CMIP5 simulations from the historical and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway; an emission scenario with forcing increasing to 8.5 W m-2 by 2100) to analyze how the AA process operates in present and future climate. The intermodel spread in these processes and the influence on the spread in AA are discussed. This approach identifies models that more realistically simulate the AA process and will aid in narrowing intermodel spread in Arctic surface temperature
TOPEX/El Nino Watch - El Nino Warm Water Pool Decreasing, Jan, 08, 1998
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1998-01-01
This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Jan. 8, 1998, and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The volume of the warm water pool related to the El Nino has decreased by about 40 percent since its maximum in early November, but the area of the warm water pool is still about one and a half times the size of the continental United States. The volume measurements are computed as the sum of all the sea surface height changes as compared to normal ocean conditions. In addition, the maximum water temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific, as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is still higher than normal. Until these high temperatures diminish, the El Nino warm water pool still has great potential to disrupt global weather because the high water temperatures directly influence the atmosphere. Oceanographers believe the recent decrease in the size of the warm water pool is a normal part of El Nino's natural rhythm. TOPEX/Poseidon has been tracking these fluctuations of the El Nino warm pool since it began in early 1997. These sea surface height measurements have provided scientists with their first detailed view of how El Nino's warm pool behaves because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea surface height with unprecedented precision. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.
The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade windsSuppressed mid-latitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Q.
2016-12-01
Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heatwaves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature (SST) warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH mid-latitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH mid-latitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.
Comparison of HF radar measurements with Eulerian and Lagrangian surface currents
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Röhrs, Johannes; Sperrevik, Ann Kristin; Christensen, Kai Håkon; Broström, Göran; Breivik, Øyvind
2015-05-01
High-frequency (HF) radar-derived ocean currents are compared with in situ measurements to conclude if the radar observations include effects of surface waves that are of second order in the wave amplitude. Eulerian current measurements from a high-resolution acoustic Doppler current profiler and Lagrangian measurements from surface drifters are used as references. Directional wave spectra are obtained from a combination of pressure sensor data and a wave model. Our analysis shows that the wave-induced Stokes drift is not included in the HF radar-derived currents, that is, HF radars measure the Eulerian current. A disputed nonlinear correction to the phase velocity of surface gravity waves, which may affect HF radar signals, has a magnitude of about half the Stokes drift at the surface. In our case, this contribution by nonlinear dispersion would be smaller than the accuracy of the HF radar currents, hence no conclusion can be made. Finally, the analysis confirms that the HF radar data represent an exponentially weighted vertical average where the decay scale is proportional to the wavelength of the transmitted signal.
Busch, Susan; Kirillin, Georgiy; Mehner, Thomas
2012-09-01
We used a coupled lake physics and bioenergetics-based foraging model to evaluate how the plasticity in habitat use modifies the seasonal metabolic response of two sympatric cold-water fishes (vendace and Fontane cisco, Coregonus spp.) under a global warming scenario for the year 2100. In different simulations, the vertically migrating species performed either a plastic strategy (behavioral thermoregulation) by shifting their population depth at night to maintain the temperatures occupied at current in-situ observations, or a fixed strategy (no thermoregulation) by keeping their occupied depths at night but facing modified temperatures. The lake physics model predicted higher temperatures above 20 m and lower temperatures below 20 m in response to warming. Using temperature-zooplankton relationships, the density of zooplankton prey was predicted to increase at the surface, but to decrease in hypolimnetic waters. Simulating the fixed strategy, growth was enhanced only for the deeper-living cisco due to the shift in thermal regime at about 20 m. In contrast, simulating the plastic strategy, individual growth of cisco and young vendace was predicted to increase compared to growth currently observed in the lake. Only growth rates of older vendace are reduced under future global warming scenarios irrespective of the behavioral strategy. However, performing behavioral thermoregulation would drive both species into the same depth layers, and hence will erode vertical microhabitat segregation and intensify inter-specific competition between the coexisting coregonids.
Anttila, K; Eliason, E J; Kaukinen, K H; Miller, K M; Farrell, A P
2014-05-01
The main findings of the current study were that exposing adult sockeye salmon Onchorhynchus nerka to a warm temperature that they regularly encounter during their river migration induced a heat shock response at an mRNA level, and this response was exacerbated with forced swimming. Similar to the heat shock response, increased immune defence-related responses were also observed after warm temperature treatment and with a swimming challenge in two different populations (Chilko and Nechako), but with some important differences. Microarray analyses revealed that 347 genes were differentially expressed between the cold (12-13° C) and warm (18-19° C) treated fish, with stress response (GO:0006950) and response to fungus (GO:0009620) elevated with warm treatment, while expression for genes involved in oxidative phosphorylation (GO:0006119) and electron transport chain (GO:0022900) elevated for cold-treated fish. Analysis of single genes with real-time quantitative PCR revealed that temperature had the most significant effect on mRNA expression levels, with swimming and population having secondary influences. Warm temperature treatment for the Chilko population induced expression of heat shock protein (hsp) 90α, hsp90β and hsp30 as well as interferon-inducible protein. The Nechako population, which is known to have a narrower thermal tolerance window than the Chilko population, showed even more pronounced stress responses to the warm treatment and there was significant interaction between population and temperature treatment for hsp90β expression. Moreover, significant interactions were noted between temperature treatment and swimming challenge for hsp90α and hsp30, and while swimming challenge alone increased expression of these hsps, the expression levels were significantly elevated in warm-treated fish swum to exhaustion. In conclusion, it seems that adult O. nerka currently encounter conditions that induce several cellular defence mechanisms during their once
Water runoff vs modern climatic warming in mountainous cryolithic zone in North-East Russia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Glotov, V. E.; Glotova, L. P.
2018-01-01
The article presents the results of studying the effects of current climatic warming for both surface and subsurface water runoffs in North-East Russia, where the Main Watershed of the Earth separates it into the Arctic and Pacific continental slopes. The process of climatic warming is testified by continuous weather records during 80-100 years and longer periods. Over the Arctic slope and in the northern areas of the Pacific slope, climatic warming results in a decline in a total runoff of rivers whereas the ground-water recharge becomes greater in winter low-level conditions. In the southern Pacific slope and in the Sea of Okhotsk basin, the effect of climatic warming is an overall increase in total runoff including its subsurface constituents. We believe these peculiar characters of river runoff there to be related to the cryolithic zone environments. Over the Arctic slope and the northern Pacific slope, where cryolithic zone is continuous, the total runoff has its subsurface constituent as basically resulting from discharge of ground waters hosted in seasonally thawing rocks. Warmer climatic conditions favor growth of vegetation that needs more water for the processes of evapotranspiration and evaporation from rocky surfaces in summer seasons. In the Sea of Okhotsk basin, where the cryolithic zone is discontinuous, not only ground waters in seasonally thawing layers, but also continuous taliks and subpermafrost waters participate in processes of river recharges. As a result, a greater biological productivity of vegetation cover does not have any effect on ground-water supply and river recharge processes. If a steady climate warming is provided, a continuous cryolithic zone can presumably degrade into a discontinuous and then into an island-type permafrost layer. Under such a scenario, there will be a general increase in the total runoff and its subsurface constituent. From geoecological viewpoints, a greater runoff will have quite positive effects, whereas some
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Ridley, W. Ian; Debraal, Jeffrey D.
1992-01-01
This is one in a series of reports summarizing our chemical modeling studies of water-rock-gas interactions at the martian surface through time. The purpose of these studies is to place constraints on possible mineralogies formed at the martian surface and to model the geochemical implications of martian surficial processes proposed by previous researchers. Plumlee and Ridley summarize geochemical processes that may have occurred as a result of inferred volcano- and impact-driven hydrothermal activity on Mars. DeBraal et al. model the geochemical aspects of water-rock interactions and water evaporation near 0 C, as a prelude to future calculations that will model sub-0 C brine-rock-clathrate interactions under the current martian climate. In this report, we discuss reaction path calculations that model chemical processes that may have occurred at the martian surface in a postulated early, warm, wet climate. We assume a temperature of 25 C in all our calculations. Processes we model here include (1) the reaction of rainwater under various ambient CO2 and O2 pressures with basaltic rocks at the martian surface, (2) the formation of acid rain by volcanic gases such as HCl and SO2, (3) the reactions of acid rain with basaltic surficial materials, and (4) evaporation of waters resulting from rainwater-basalt interactions.
Role of Western Hemisphere Warm Pool in Rapid Climate Changes over the Western North Pacific
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kug, Jong-Seong; Park, Jae-Heung; An, Soon-Il
2017-04-01
Oceanic states over the western North Pacific (WNP), which is surrounded by heavily populated countries, are closely tied to the lives of the people in East Asia in regards to both climate and socioeconomics. As global warming continues, remarkable increases in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) have been observed in the WNP in recent decades. Here, we show that the SST increase in the western hemisphere warm pool (WHWP), which is the second largest warm pool on the globe, has contributed considerably to the rapid surface warming and sea level rise in the WNP via its remote teleconnection along the Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). State-of-the-art climate models strongly support the role of the WHWP not only on interannual time sales but also in long-term climate projections. We expect that understanding the processes initiated by the WHWP-SST could permit better forecasts of western North Pacific climate and the further development of the socioeconomics of East Asia.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Majorowicz, J.; Šafanda, J.; Gosnold, W.; Unsworth, M.
2012-04-01
Recent results from a 2.3km deep temperature log in northern Alberta, Canada acquired as part of the University of Alberta Helmholtz-Alberta Initiative (HAI) geothermal energy project in 2010-2011shows that there is a significant increase in thermal gradient in the granites. Inversion of the measured T-z profile between 550 - 2320 m indicates a temperature increase of 9.6 ± 0.3 °C, at 13.0 ± 0.6 ka and that the glacial base surface temperature was - 4.4± 0.3 °C. This inversion computation accounted for granite heat production of 3 µW/m3. This is the largest amplitude of Pleistocene - Holocene surface warming in Canada inferred from borehole temperature logs, and is compatible with the results of similar studies in Eurasia (KTB, Outokumpu, Torun-1 etc.) reported previously. Reference: Majorowicz, J., Unsworth, M., Chacko, T., Gray, A., Heaman L., Potter, D., Schmitt, D., and Babadagli, T., 2011. Geothermal energy as a source of heat for oilsands processing in northern Alberta, Canada, in: Hein, F. J., Leckie, D., Suter , J., and Larter, S., (Eds), Heavy Oil/Bitumen Petroleum Systems in Alberta and beyond, AAPG Mem., in press.
Ocean acidification ameliorates harmful effects of warming in primary consumer.
Pedersen, Sindre Andre; Hanssen, Anja Elise
2018-01-01
Climate change-induced warming and ocean acidification are considered two imminent threats to marine biodiversity and current ecosystem structures. Here, we have for the first time examined an animal's response to a complete life cycle of exposure to co-occurring warming (+3°C) and ocean acidification (+1,600 μatm CO 2 ), using the key subarctic planktonic copepod, Calanus finmarchicus , as a model species. The animals were generally negatively affected by warming, which significantly reduced the females' energy status and reproductive parameters (respectively, 95% and 69%-87% vs. control). Unexpectedly, simultaneous acidification partially offset the negative effect of warming in an antagonistic manner, significantly improving reproductive parameters and hatching success (233%-340% improvement vs. single warming exposure). The results provide proof of concept that ocean acidification may partially offset negative effects caused by warming in some species. Possible explanations and ecological implications for the observed antagonistic effect are discussed.
Intraseasonal sea surface warming in the western Indian Ocean by oceanic equatorial Rossby waves
2017-05-09
using observational and reanalysis products , respectively. In the heat budget, horizontal advection is the leading contributor to warming, in part due to...warming and cooling in these studies . SST is observed to maximize just ahead of MJO convection. After convection begins, SST rapidly cools and reaches a...minimum ~5 days later. However, several studies have observed a certain class of MJO events that deviate from the previously observed relationship of
Low clouds suppress Arctic air formation and amplify high-latitude continental winter warming.
Cronin, Timothy W; Tziperman, Eli
2015-09-15
High-latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. We use an idealized single-column atmospheric model across a range of conditions to study the polar night process of air mass transformation from high-latitude maritime air, with a prescribed initial temperature profile, to much colder high-latitude continental air. We find that a low-cloud feedback--consisting of a robust increase in the duration of optically thick liquid clouds with warming of the initial state--slows radiative cooling of the surface and amplifies continental warming. This low-cloud feedback increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature, effectively suppressing Arctic air formation. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ∼ 10 d for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 °C. These results, supplemented by an analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 climate model runs that shows large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, suggest that the "lapse rate feedback" in simulations of anthropogenic climate change may be related to the influence of low clouds on the stratification of the lower troposphere. The results also indicate that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates.
Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth's energy imbalance.
Drijfhout, Sybren
2015-10-06
A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15-20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40-50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible.
The Differential Warming Response of Britain's Rivers (1982-2011).
Jonkers, Art R T; Sharkey, Kieran J
2016-01-01
River water temperature is a hydrological feature primarily controlled by topographical, meteorological, climatological, and anthropogenic factors. For Britain, the study of freshwater temperatures has focussed mainly on observations made in England and Wales; similar comprehensive data sets for Scotland are currently unavailable. Here we present a model for the whole of mainland Britain over three recent decades (1982-2011) that incorporates geographical extrapolation to Scotland. The model estimates daily mean freshwater temperature for every river segment and for any day in the studied period, based upon physico-geographical features, daily mean air and sea temperatures, and available freshwater temperature measurements. We also extrapolate the model temporally to predict future warming of Britain's rivers given current observed trends. Our results highlight the spatial and temporal diversity of British freshwater temperatures and warming rates. Over the studied period, Britain's rivers had a mean temperature of 9.84°C and experienced a mean warming of +0.22°C per decade, with lower rates for segments near lakes and in coastal regions. Model results indicate April as the fastest-warming month (+0.63°C per decade on average), and show that most rivers spend on average ever more days of the year at temperatures exceeding 10°C, a critical threshold for several fish pathogens. Our results also identify exceptional warming in parts of the Scottish Highlands (in April and September) and pervasive cooling episodes, in December throughout Britain and in July in the southwest of England (in Wales, Cornwall, Devon, and Dorset). This regional heterogeneity in rates of change has ramifications for current and future water quality, aquatic ecosystems, as well as for the spread of waterborne diseases.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio
2017-08-01
The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10-member initial-condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.
Using radiative signatures to diagnose the cause of warming during the 2013-2014 Californian drought
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wolf, Sebastian; Yin, Dongqin; Roderick, Michael L.
2017-10-01
California recently experienced among the worst droughts of the last century, with exceptional precipitation deficits and co-occurring record high temperatures. The dry conditions caused severe water shortages in one of the economically most important agricultural regions of the US. It has recently been hypothesized that anthropogenic warming is increasing the likelihood of such extreme droughts in California, or more specifically, that warmer temperatures from the enhanced greenhouse effect intensify drought conditions. However, separating the cause and effect is difficult because the dry conditions lead to a reduction in evaporative cooling that contributes to the warming. Here we investigate and compare the forcing of long-term greenhouse-induced warming with the short-term warming during the 2013-2014 Californian drought. We use the concept of radiative signatures to investigate the source of the radiative perturbation during the drought, relate the signatures to expected changes due to anthropogenic warming, and assess the cause of warming based on observed changes in the surface energy balance compared to the period 2001-2012. We found that the recent meteorological drought based on precipitation deficits was characterised by an increase in incoming shortwave radiation coupled with a decline in incoming longwave radiation, which contributed to record warm temperatures. In contrast, climate models project that anthropogenic warming is accompanied by little change in incoming shortwave but a large increase in incoming longwave radiation. The warming during the drought was associated with increased incoming shortwave radiation in combination with reduced evaporative cooling from water deficits, which enhanced surface temperatures and sensible heat transfer to the atmosphere. Our analyses demonstrate that radiative signatures are a powerful tool to differentiate the source of perturbations in the surface energy balance at monthly to seasonal time scales.
Current Climate Variability & Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.
2013-12-01
climate change. The next section guides students through the exploration of temporal changes in global temperature from the surface to the lower stratosphere. Students discover that there has been global warming over the past several decades, and the subsequent section allows them to consider solar radiation and greenhouse gases as possible causes of this warming. Students then zoom in on different latitudinal zones to examine changes in temperature for each zone and hypothesize about why one zone may have warmed more than others. The final section, prior to the answering of the essential questions, is an examination of the following effects of the current change in temperatures: loss of sea ice; rise of sea level; loss of permafrost loss; and moistening of the atmosphere. The lab addresses 14 climate-literacy concepts and all seven climate-literacy principles through data and images that are mainly NASA products. It focuses on the satellite era of climate data; therefore, 1979 is the typical starting year for most datasets used by students. Additionally, all time-series analysis end with the latest year with full-year data availability; thus, the climate variability and trends truly are 'current.'
More losers than winners in a century of future Southern Ocean seafloor warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Griffiths, Huw J.; Meijers, Andrew J. S.; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.
2017-10-01
The waters of the Southern Ocean are projected to warm over the coming century, with potential adverse consequences for native cold-adapted organisms. Warming waters have caused temperate marine species to shift their ranges poleward. The seafloor animals of the Southern Ocean shelf have long been isolated by the deep ocean surrounding Antarctica and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with little scope for southward migration. How these largely endemic species will react to future projected warming is unknown. By considering 963 invertebrate species, we show that within the current century, warming temperatures alone are unlikely to result in wholesale extinction or invasion affecting Antarctic seafloor life. However, 79% of Antarctica's endemic species do face a significant reduction in suitable temperature habitat (an average 12% reduction). Our findings highlight the species and regions most likely to respond significantly (negatively and positively) to warming and have important implications for future management of the region.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peterson, William T.; Fisher, Jennifer L.; Strub, P. Ted; Du, Xiuning; Risien, Craig; Peterson, Jay; Shaw, C. Tracy
2017-09-01
A warm anomaly in the upper ocean, colloquially named "the Blob," appeared in the Gulf of Alaska during the calm winter of 2013-2014, spread across the northern North Pacific (NP) Ocean, and shifted eastward and onto the Oregon shelf. At least 14 species of copepods occurred which had never been observed in shelf/slope waters off Oregon, some of which are known to have NP Gyre affinities, indicating that the source waters of the coastal "Blob" were likely of both offshore (from the west) and subtropical/tropical origin. The anomalously warm conditions were reduced during strong upwelling in spring 2015 but returned when upwelling weakened in July 2015 and transitioned to downwelling in fall 2015. The extended period of warm conditions resulted in prolonged effects on the ecosystem off central Oregon, lasting at least through 2016. Impacts to the lower trophic levels were unprecedented and include a novel plankton community composition resulting from increased copepod, diatom, and dinoflagellate species richness and increased abundance of dinoflagellates. Additionally, the multiyear warm anomalies were associated with reduced biomass of copepods and euphausiids, high abundance of larvaceans and doliolids (indictors of oligotrophic ocean conditions), and a toxic diatom bloom (Pseudo-nitzschia) throughout the California Current in 2015, thereby changing the composition of the food web that is relied upon by many commercially and ecologically important species.
Efficient Warm-ups: Creating a Warm-up That Works.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Lauffenburger, Sandra Kay
1992-01-01
Proper warm-up is important for any activity, but designing an effective warm-up can be time consuming. An alternative approach is to take a cue from Laban Movement Analysis (LMA) and consider movement design from the perspective of space and planes of motion. Efficient warm-up exercises using LMA are described. (SM)
Current warming will reduce yields unless maize breeding and seed systems adapt immediately
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Challinor, A. J.; Koehler, A.-K.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Whitfield, S.; Das, B.
2016-10-01
The development of crop varieties that are better suited to new climatic conditions is vital for future food production. Increases in mean temperature accelerate crop development, resulting in shorter crop durations and reduced time to accumulate biomass and yield. The process of breeding, delivery and adoption (BDA) of new maize varieties can take up to 30 years. Here, we assess for the first time the implications of warming during the BDA process by using five bias-corrected global climate models and four representative concentration pathways with realistic scenarios of maize BDA times in Africa. The results show that the projected difference in temperature between the start and end of the maize BDA cycle results in shorter crop durations that are outside current variability. Both adaptation and mitigation can reduce duration loss. In particular, climate projections have the potential to provide target elevated temperatures for breeding. Whilst options for reducing BDA time are highly context dependent, common threads include improved recording and sharing of data across regions for the whole BDA cycle, streamlining of regulation, and capacity building. Finally, we show that the results have implications for maize across the tropics, where similar shortening of duration is projected.
Kink modes and surface currents associated with vertical displacement events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Manickam, Janardhan; Boozer, Allen; Gerhardt, Stefan
2012-08-01
The fast termination phase of a vertical displacement event (VDE) in a tokamak is modeled as a sequence of shrinking equilibria, where the core current profile remains constant so that the safety-factor at the axis, qaxis, remains fixed and the qedge systematically decreases. At some point, the n = 1 kink mode is destabilized. Kink modes distort the magnetic field lines outside the plasma, and surface currents are required to nullify the normal component of the B-field at the plasma boundary and maintain equilibrium at finite pressure. If the plasma touches a conductor, the current can be transferred to the conductor, and may be measurable by the halo current monitors. This report describes a practical method to model the plasma as it evolves during a VDE, and determine the surface currents, needed to maintain equilibrium. The main results are that the onset conditions for the disruption are that the growth-rate of the n = 1 kink exceeds half the Alfven time and the associated surface current needed to maintain equilibrium exceeds one half of the core plasma current. This occurs when qedge drops below a low integer, usually 2. Application to NSTX provides favorable comparison with non-axisymmetric halo-current measurements. The model is also applied to ITER and shows that the 2/1 mode is projected to be the most likely cause of the final disruption.
Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity
Moore, J. Keith; Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; ...
2018-03-01
Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease bymore » more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.« less
Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Moore, J. Keith; Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois
Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease bymore » more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.« less
Terra Data Confirm Warm, Dry U.S. Winter
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
2002-01-01
New maps of land surface temperature and snow cover produced by NASA's Terra satellite show this year's winter was warmer than last year's, and the snow line stayed farther north than normal. The observations confirm earlier National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that the United States was unusually warm and dry this past winter. (Click to read the NASA press release and to access higher-resolution images.) For the last two years, a new sensor aboard Terra has been collecting the most detailed global measurements ever made of our world's land surface temperatures and snow cover. The Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is already giving scientists new insights into our changing planet. Average temperatures during December 2001 through February 2002 for the contiguous United States appear to have been unseasonably warm from the Rockies eastward. In the top image the coldest temperatures appear black, while dark green, blue, red, yellow, and white indicate progressively warmer temperatures. MODIS observes both land surface temperature and emissivity, which indicates how efficiently a surface absorbs and emits thermal radiation. Compared to the winter of 2000-01, temperatures throughout much of the U.S. were warmer in 2001-02. The bottom image depicts the differences on a scale from dark blue (colder this year than last) to red (warmer this year than last). A large region of warm temperatures dominated the northern Great Plains, while the area around the Great Salt Lake was a cold spot. Images courtesy Robert Simmon, NASA GSFC, based upon data courtesy Zhengming Wan, MODIS Land Science Team member at the University of California, Santa Barbara's Institute for Computational Earth System Science
How does whole ecosystem warming of a peatland affect methane production and consumption?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hopple, A.; Brunik, K.; Keller, J.; Pfeifer-Meister, L.; Woerndle, G.; Zalman, C.; Hanson, P.; Bridgham, S. D.
2017-12-01
Peatlands are among Earth's most important terrestrial ecosystems due to their massive soil carbon (C) stores and significant release of methane (CH4) into the atmosphere. Methane has a sustained-flux global warming potential 45-times greater than carbon dioxide (CO2), and the accuracy of Earth system model projections relies on our mechanistic understanding of peatland CH4 cycling in the context of environmental change. The objective of this study was to determine, under in situ conditions, how heating of the peat profile affects ecosystem-level anaerobic C cycling. We assessed the response of CO2 and CH4 production, as well as the anaerobic oxidation of CH4 (AOM), in a boreal peatland following 13 months of deep peat heating (DPH) and 16 months of subsequent whole-ecosystem warming (surface and deep heating; WEW) as part of the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) project in northern Minnesota, USA. The study uses a regression-based experimental design including 5 temperature treatments that warmed the entire 2 m peat profile from 0 to +9 °C above ambient temperature. Soil cores were collected at multiple depths (25-200 cm) from each experimental chamber at the SPRUCE site and anaerobically incubated at in situ temperatures for 1-2 weeks. Methane and CO2 production in surface peat were positively correlated with elevated temperature, but no consistent temperature response was found at depth (75-200 cm) following DPH. However, during WEW, we observed significant increases in both surface and deep peat methanogenesis with increasing temperature. Surface peat had greater CH4 production rates than deeper peat, implying that the increased CH4 emissions observed in the field were largely driven by surface peat warming. The CO2:CH4 ratio was inversely correlated with temperature across all depths following 16 months of WEW, indicating that the entire peat profile is becoming more methanogenic with warming. We also observed AOM throughout
Circumpolar dynamics of a marine top-predator track ocean warming rates.
Descamps, Sébastien; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Barrett, Robert T; Irons, David B; Merkel, Flemming; Robertson, Gregory J; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Mallory, Mark L; Montevecchi, William A; Boertmann, David; Artukhin, Yuri; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe; Erikstad, Kjell-Einar; Gilchrist, H Grant; Labansen, Aili L; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon; Mosbech, Anders; Olsen, Bergur; Petersen, Aevar; Rail, Jean-Francois; Renner, Heather M; Strøm, Hallvard; Systad, Geir H; Wilhelm, Sabina I; Zelenskaya, Larisa
2017-09-01
Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change. Understanding of nonlinearity in the biological responses to climate warming is needed to assess the consequences of ongoing climate change. Here, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of a long-lived, wide-ranging marine predator are associated with changes in the rate of ocean warming. Data from 556 colonies of black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla distributed throughout its breeding range revealed that an abrupt warming of sea-surface temperature in the 1990s coincided with steep kittiwake population decline. Periods of moderate warming in sea temperatures did not seem to affect kittiwake dynamics. The rapid warming observed in the 1990s may have driven large-scale, circumpolar marine ecosystem shifts that strongly affected kittiwakes through bottom-up effects. Our study sheds light on the nonlinear response of a circumpolar seabird to large-scale changes in oceanographic conditions and indicates that marine top predators may be more sensitive to the rate of ocean warming rather than to warming itself. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Lewin, Keith F.; McMahon, Andrew M.; Ely, Kim S.
Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. But, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by ~1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be ~2–3more » °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW) chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. Our approach is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming approaches is desired.« less
A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lewin, Keith F.; McMahon, Andrew M.; Ely, Kim S.; Serbin, Shawn P.; Rogers, Alistair
2017-09-01
Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. However, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by ˜ 1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be ˜ 2-3 °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW) chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. The approach we describe is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming approaches is desired.
A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature
Lewin, Keith F.; McMahon, Andrew M.; Ely, Kim S.; ...
2017-09-19
Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. But, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by ~1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be ~2–3more » °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW) chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. Our approach is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming approaches is desired.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wang, S. -Y. Simon; Lin, Yen-Heng; Lee, Ming-Ying
In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March-April. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as well as those documented in previous studies. Our results indicate a recent and accelerated increasemore » in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. Given that tropospheric warming events occur twice as fast than the stratospheric warming type, the noted increase in the former implies further intensification in midlatitude winter weather extremes similar to those experienced in early 2016. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated impact on the anomalously cold Siberia.« less
Climate-induced warming of lakes can be either amplified or suppressed by trends in water clarity
Rose, Kevin C.; Winslow, Luke A.; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.
2016-01-01
Climate change is rapidly warming aquatic ecosystems including lakes and reservoirs. However, variability in lake characteristics can modulate how lakes respond to climate. Water clarity is especially important both because it influences the depth range over which heat is absorbed, and because it is changing in many lakes. Here, we show that simulated long-term water clarity trends influence how both surface and bottom water temperatures of lakes and reservoirs respond to climate change. Clarity changes can either amplify or suppress climate-induced warming, depending on lake depth and the direction of clarity change. Using a process-based model to simulate 1894 north temperate lakes from 1979 to 2012, we show that a scenario of decreasing clarity at a conservative yet widely observed rate of 0.92% yr−1 warmed surface waters and cooled bottom waters at rates comparable in magnitude to climate-induced warming. For lakes deeper than 6.5 m, decreasing clarity was sufficient to fully offset the effects of climate-induced warming on median whole-lake mean temperatures. Conversely, a scenario increasing clarity at the same rate cooled surface waters and warmed bottom waters relative to baseline warming rates. Furthermore, in 43% of lakes, increasing clarity more than doubled baseline bottom temperature warming rates. Long-term empirical observations of water temperature in lakes with and without clarity trends support these simulation results. Together, these results demonstrate that water clarity trends may be as important as rising air temperatures in determining how waterbodies respond to climate change.
Stochastic Modeling and Global Warming Trend Extraction For Ocean Acoustic Travel Times.
1995-01-06
consideration and that these models can not currently be relied upon by themselves to predict global warming . Experimental data is most certainly needed, not...only to measure global warming itself, but to help improve the ocean model themselves. (AN)
An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zheng, Jian; Liu, Qinyu; Wang, Chuanyang
2018-03-01
Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.
Effects of warming on the structure and function of a boreal black spruce forest
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Stith T.Gower
2010-03-03
belowground net primary production (NPP) budgets. Autotrophic respiration budgets will be constructed using chamber measurements for each tissue and NPP and standard allometry techniques (Gower et al. 1999). (4) Compare microbial and root dynamics, and net soil surface CO2 flux, of control and warmed soils to identify causes that may explain the hypothesized minimal effect of soil warming on soil surface CO2 flux. Fine root production and turnover will be quantified using minirhizotrons, and microbial dynamics will be determined using laboratory mineralization incubations. Soil surface CO2 flux will be measured using automated soil surface CO2 flux systems and portable CO2 analyzers. The proposed study builds on the existing research programs Gower has in northern Manitoba and would not be possible without in-kind services and financial support from Manitoba Hydro and University of Wisconsin.« less
The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes
Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.
2011-01-01
Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.
Over-limiting Current and Control of Dendritic Growth by Surface Conduction in Nanopores
Han, Ji-Hyung; Khoo, Edwin; Bai, Peng; Bazant, Martin Z.
2014-01-01
Understanding over-limiting current (faster than diffusion) is a long-standing challenge in electrochemistry with applications in desalination and energy storage. Known mechanisms involve either chemical or hydrodynamic instabilities in unconfined electrolytes. Here, it is shown that over-limiting current can be sustained by surface conduction in nanopores, without any such instabilities, and used to control dendritic growth during electrodeposition. Copper electrodeposits are grown in anodized aluminum oxide membranes with polyelectrolyte coatings to modify the surface charge. At low currents, uniform electroplating occurs, unaffected by surface modification due to thin electric double layers, but the morphology changes dramatically above the limiting current. With negative surface charge, growth is enhanced along the nanopore surfaces, forming surface dendrites and nanotubes behind a deionization shock. With positive surface charge, dendrites avoid the surfaces and are either guided along the nanopore centers or blocked from penetrating the membrane. PMID:25394685
Warming Mars Using Artificial Super-Greenhouse Gases
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Marinova, M. M.; McKay, C. P.; Hashimoto, H.
Artificial super-greenhouse gases will be needed in terraforming Mars. They could be used to initiate warming and also to supplement the greenhouse effect of a breathable oxygen/nitrogen atmosphere containing a limited amount of carbon dioxide. The leading super-greenhouse gas candidates are SF6 and perfluorocarbons (PFCs) such as CF4 and C2F6. The transmission spectra of C2F6, CF2Cl2, and CF3Cl were analyzed, and their specific absorption bands quantitatively assessed. A detailed band model was used to accurately calculate and compare the greenhouse warming of Earth and Mars given different temperature profiles and concentrations of the gases. The results show that for the current Mars, 0.1 Pa (10-6 atm) of a single super-greenhouse gas will result in a warming of about 3 K. The synthesis of this amount of gas requires about 1020 J, equivalent to ~ 70 minutes of the total solar energy reaching Mars. Super-greenhouse gases are a viable method for warming up a planet alone and are certainly practical in combination with other methods.
Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sigmond, M.; Scinocca, J. F.; Kharin, V. V.; Shepherd, T. G.
2013-02-01
Advances in seasonal forecasting have brought widespread socio-economic benefits. However, seasonal forecast skill in the extratropics is relatively modest, prompting the seasonal forecasting community to search for additional sources of predictability. For over a decade it has been suggested that knowledge of the state of the stratosphere can act as a source of enhanced seasonal predictability; long-lived circulation anomalies in the lower stratosphere that follow stratospheric sudden warmings are associated with circulation anomalies in the troposphere that can last up to two months. Here, we show by performing retrospective ensemble model forecasts that such enhanced predictability can be realized in a dynamical seasonal forecast system with a good representation of the stratosphere. When initialized at the onset date of stratospheric sudden warmings, the model forecasts faithfully reproduce the observed mean tropospheric conditions in the months following the stratospheric sudden warmings. Compared with an equivalent set of forecasts that are not initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings, we document enhanced forecast skill for atmospheric circulation patterns, surface temperatures over northern Russia and eastern Canada and North Atlantic precipitation. We suggest that seasonal forecast systems initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings are likely to yield significantly greater forecast skill in some regions.
Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection
Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju
2016-01-01
Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection. PMID:26838053
Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection.
Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju
2016-02-03
Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection.
Synergistic surface current mapping by spaceborne stereo imaging and coastal HF radar
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Matthews, John Philip; Yoshikawa, Yutaka
2012-09-01
Well validated optical and radar methods of surface current measurement at high spatial resolution (nominally <100 m) from space can greatly advance our ability to monitor earth's oceans, coastal zones, lakes and rivers. With interest growing in optical along-track stereo techniques for surface current and wave motion determinations, questions of how to interpret such data and how to relate them to measurements made by better validated techniques arise. Here we make the first systematic appraisal of surface currents derived from along-track stereo Sun glitter (ATSSG) imagery through comparisons with simultaneous synoptic flows observed by coastal HF radars working at frequencies of 13.9 and 24.5 MHz, which return averaged currents within surface layers of roughly 1 m and 2 m depth respectively. At our Tsushima Strait (Japan) test site, we found that these two techniques provided largely compatible surface current patterns, with the main difference apparent in current strength. Within the northwest (southern) comparison region, the magnitudes of the ATSSG current vectors derived for 13 August 2006 were on average 22% (40%) higher than the corresponding vectors for the 1-m (2-m) depth radar. These results reflect near-surface vertical current structure, differences in the flow components sensed by the two techniques and disparities in instrumental performance. The vertical profile constructed here from ATSSG, HF radar and ADCP data is the first to resolve downwind drift in the upper 2 m of the open ocean. The profile e-folding depth suggests Stokes drift from waves of 10-m wavelength visible in the images.
Cellular Convection in a Chamber with a Warm Surface Raft
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Whitehead, John; Shea, Erin; Behn, Mark
2011-11-01
We calculate velocity and temperature fields for Rayleigh-Benard convection in a chamber with a warm raft that can float along the top surface for Rayleigh number up to Ra=20,000. Two-dimensional, infinite Prandtl number, Boussinesq approximation equations are numerically advanced in time from a motionless state in a chamber of length L' and depth D'. We consider cases with an insulated raft and a raft of fixed temperature. Either oscillatory or stationary flow exists. The case of an insulated raft has three governing parameters: Ra, scaled chamber length L=L'/D', and scaled raft width W. For W=0 and L=1, the marginal state is at Ra=779.3. For smallest W (determined by numerical grid size) and Ra <790 the raft approaches the center monotonically in time. For 790
Low clouds suppress Arctic air formation and amplify high-latitude continental winter warming
Cronin, Timothy W.; Tziperman, Eli
2015-01-01
High-latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. We use an idealized single-column atmospheric model across a range of conditions to study the polar night process of air mass transformation from high-latitude maritime air, with a prescribed initial temperature profile, to much colder high-latitude continental air. We find that a low-cloud feedback—consisting of a robust increase in the duration of optically thick liquid clouds with warming of the initial state—slows radiative cooling of the surface and amplifies continental warming. This low-cloud feedback increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature, effectively suppressing Arctic air formation. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ∼10 d for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 °C. These results, supplemented by an analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 climate model runs that shows large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, suggest that the “lapse rate feedback” in simulations of anthropogenic climate change may be related to the influence of low clouds on the stratification of the lower troposphere. The results also indicate that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates. PMID:26324919
Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California.
Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle
2015-03-31
California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼ 100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm-dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the "exceptional" 2012-2014 drought in California.
Dynamics of tokamak plasma surface current in 3D ideal MHD model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Galkin, Sergei A.; Svidzinski, V. A.; Zakharov, L. E.
2013-10-01
Interest in the surface current which can arise on perturbed sharp plasma vacuum interface in tokamaks was recently generated by a few papers (see and references therein). In dangerous disruption events with plasma-touching-wall scenarios, the surface current can be shared with the wall leading to the strong, damaging forces acting on the wall A relatively simple analytic definition of δ-function surface current proportional to a jump of tangential component of magnetic field nevertheless leads to a complex computational problem on the moving plasma-vacuum interface, requiring the incorporation of non-linear 3D plasma dynamics even in one-fluid ideal MHD. The Disruption Simulation Code (DSC), which had recently been developed in a fully 3D toroidal geometry with adaptation to the moving plasma boundary, is an appropriate tool for accurate self-consistent δfunction surface current calculation. Progress on the DSC-3D development will be presented. Self-consistent surface current calculation under non-linear dynamics of low m kink mode and VDE will be discussed. Work is supported by the US DOE SBIR grant #DE-SC0004487.
Rich, Roy L; Stefanski, Artur; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Hobbie, Sarah E; Kimball, Bruce A; Reich, Peter B
2015-06-01
Conducting manipulative climate change experiments in complex vegetation is challenging, given considerable temporal and spatial heterogeneity. One specific challenge involves warming of both plants and soils to depth. We describe the design and performance of an open-air warming experiment called Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger (B4WarmED) that addresses the potential for projected climate warming to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes at the boreal-temperate ecotone. The experiment includes two forested sites in northern Minnesota, USA, with plots in both open (recently clear-cut) and closed canopy habitats, where seedlings of 11 tree species were planted into native ground vegetation. Treatments include three target levels of plant canopy and soil warming (ambient, +1.7°C, +3.4°C). Warming was achieved by independent feedback control of voltage input to aboveground infrared heaters and belowground buried resistance heating cables in each of 72-7.0 m(2) plots. The treatments emulated patterns of observed diurnal, seasonal, and annual temperatures but with superimposed warming. For the 2009 to 2011 field seasons, we achieved temperature elevations near our targets with growing season overall mean differences (∆Tbelow ) of +1.84°C and +3.66°C at 10 cm soil depth and (∆T(above) ) of +1.82°C and +3.45°C for the plant canopies. We also achieved measured soil warming to at least 1 m depth. Aboveground treatment stability and control were better during nighttime than daytime and in closed vs. open canopy sites in part due to calmer conditions. Heating efficacy in open canopy areas was reduced with increasing canopy complexity and size. Results of this study suggest the warming approach is scalable: it should work well in small-statured vegetation such as grasslands, desert, agricultural crops, and tree saplings (<5 m tall). © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Warm Rivers Play Role in Arctic Sea Ice Melt
2014-03-05
Beaufort Sea surface temperatures where Canada Mackenzie River discharges into the Arctic Ocean, measured by NASA MODIS instrument; warm river waters had broken through a shoreline sea ice barrier to enhance sea ice melt.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hsieh, I. F.; Gill, A. L.; Finzi, A.
2017-12-01
Potential increase in peatland C losses by environmental change has been presented by impacting the balance of CO2 and CH4 sequestration and release. While temperature warming may accelerate the temperature-sensitive processes and release CO2 and CH4 from peat C stores, factors associated with warming and that associated with elevated CO2 concentration may alter the intrinsic characteristics of CO2 and CH4 emission from peatland. By leveraging Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experiment, we measured peat surface CO2 and CH4 fluxes and their i13C signatures across a gradient of warming temperatures in a boreal black spruce peat bog in 2015 and 2016 growing seasons. Elevated CO2 (eCO2) treatment was added to the warming experiment in June, 2016. Our results show both CH4 and CO2 flux increased with warming temperature in the two-year measurement period. Total emission for both gases were higher in 2016 with whole ecosystem warming than that in 2015 with deep peat heat warming. The 2016 increase in CO2 emission was significantly larger in the hummock microtopographic position compared to hollows. The opposite was true for CH4 fluxes, where the increase was strongest in the hollows. In fact, CH4 flux from hummocks declined in 2016 compared to 2015, suggesting lower overall rates of CH4 production and/or greater rates of methanotrophy. The increase (less depleted) in i13C -CH4 signatures suggest acetoclastic methanogensis increased its contribution to total CH4 production across the growing season and in response to experimental warming, while hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis dominated total CH4 production. On the contrary, results of i13C-CO2 show no significant change in the contribution of different sources to total CO2 emission through time or across warming temperature. On the other hand, i13C-CO2 signatures under CO2 fumigation in 2016 was significantly depleted since the eCO2 initiation, indicating a rapid increase in plant
Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, USA.
Lyons, J; Stewart, J S; Mitro, M
2010-11-01
Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0-93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kavanaugh, Maria T.; Rheuban, Jennie E.; Luis, Kelly M. A.; Doney, Scott C.
2017-12-01
The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf is experiencing rapid warming, with potentially profound consequences to marine ecosystems. While satellites document multiple scales of spatial and temporal variability on the surface, our understanding of the status, trends, and drivers of the benthic environmental change remains limited. We interpolated sparse benthic temperature data along the New England Shelf and upper Slope using a seasonally dynamic, regionally specific multiple linear regression model that merged in situ and remote sensing data. The statistical model predicted nearly 90% of the variability of the data, resulting in a synoptic time series spanning over three decades from 1982 to 2014. Benthic temperatures increased throughout the domain, including in the Gulf of Maine. Rates of benthic warming ranged from 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade, with fastest rates occurring in shallow, nearshore regions and on Georges Bank, the latter exceeding rates observed in the surface. Rates of benthic warming were up to 1.6 times faster in winter than the rest of the year in many regions, with important implications for disease occurrence and energetics of overwintering species. Drivers of warming varied over the domain. In southern New England and the mid-Atlantic shallow Shelf regions, benthic warming was tightly coupled to changes in SST, whereas both regional and basin-scale changes in ocean circulation affect temperatures in the Gulf of Maine, the Continental Shelf, and Georges Banks. These results highlight data gaps, the current feasibility of prediction from remotely sensed variables, and the need for improved understanding on how climate may affect seasonally specific ecological processes.
Kavanaugh, Maria T; Rheuban, Jennie E; Luis, Kelly M A; Doney, Scott C
2017-12-01
The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf is experiencing rapid warming, with potentially profound consequences to marine ecosystems. While satellites document multiple scales of spatial and temporal variability on the surface, our understanding of the status, trends, and drivers of the benthic environmental change remains limited. We interpolated sparse benthic temperature data along the New England Shelf and upper Slope using a seasonally dynamic, regionally specific multiple linear regression model that merged in situ and remote sensing data. The statistical model predicted nearly 90% of the variability of the data, resulting in a synoptic time series spanning over three decades from 1982 to 2014. Benthic temperatures increased throughout the domain, including in the Gulf of Maine. Rates of benthic warming ranged from 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade, with fastest rates occurring in shallow, nearshore regions and on Georges Bank, the latter exceeding rates observed in the surface. Rates of benthic warming were up to 1.6 times faster in winter than the rest of the year in many regions, with important implications for disease occurrence and energetics of overwintering species. Drivers of warming varied over the domain. In southern New England and the mid-Atlantic shallow Shelf regions, benthic warming was tightly coupled to changes in SST, whereas both regional and basin-scale changes in ocean circulation affect temperatures in the Gulf of Maine, the Continental Shelf, and Georges Banks. These results highlight data gaps, the current feasibility of prediction from remotely sensed variables, and the need for improved understanding on how climate may affect seasonally specific ecological processes.
Decadal Variation's Offset of Global Warming in Recent Tropical Pacific Climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yeo, S. R.; Yeh, S. W.; Kim, K. Y.; Kim, W.
2015-12-01
Despite the increasing greenhouse gas concentration, there is no significant warming in the sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical eastern Pacific since about 2000. This counterintuitive observation has generated substantial interest in the role of low-frequency variation over the Pacific Ocean such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Therefore, it is necessary to appropriately separate low-frequency variability and global warming from SST records. Here we present three primary modes of global SST as a secular warming trend, a low-frequency variability, and a biennial oscillation through the use of novel statistical method. By analyzing temporal behavior of the three-mode, it is found that the opposite contributions of secular warming trend and cold phase of low-frequency variability since 1999 account for the warming hiatus in the tropical eastern Pacific. This result implies that the low-frequency variability modulates the manifestation of global warming signal in the tropical Pacific SST. Furthermore, if the low-frequency variability turns to a positive phase, warming in the tropical eastern Pacific will be amplified and also strong El Niño events will occur more frequently in the near future.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Race, Caitlin; Steinbach, Michael; Ganguly, Auroop R
2010-01-01
The connections among greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios, global warming, and frequencies of hurricanes or tropical cyclones are among the least understood in climate science but among the most fiercely debated in the context of adaptation decisions or mitigation policies. Here we show that a knowledge discovery strategy, which leverages observations and climate model simulations, offers the promise of developing credible projections of tropical cyclones based on sea surface temperatures (SST) in a warming environment. While this study motivates the development of new methodologies in statistics and data mining, the ability to solve challenging climate science problems with innovative combinations of traditionalmore » and state-of-the-art methods is demonstrated. Here we develop new insights, albeit in a proof-of-concept sense, on the relationship between sea surface temperatures and hurricane frequencies, and generate the most likely projections with uncertainty bounds for storm counts in the 21st-century warming environment based in turn on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our preliminary insights point to the benefits that can be achieved for climate science and impacts analysis, as well as adaptation and mitigation policies, by a solution strategy that remains tailored to the climate domain and complements physics-based climate model simulations with a combination of existing and new computational and data science approaches.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gentemann, C. L.; Akella, S.
2018-02-01
An analysis of the ocean skin Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has been included in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) - Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS), Version 5 (GEOS-ADAS). This analysis is based on the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) that simulates near-surface diurnal warming and cool skin effects. Analysis for the skin SST is performed along with the atmospheric state, including Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite radiance observations as part of the data assimilation system. One month (September, 2015) of GEOS-ADAS SSTs were compared to collocated satellite Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) SSTs to examine how the GEOS-ADAS diurnal warming compares to the satellite measured warming. The spatial distribution of warming compares well to the satellite observed distributions. Specific diurnal events are analyzed to examine variability within a single day. The dependence of diurnal warming on wind speed, time of day, and daily average insolation is also examined. Overall the magnitude of GEOS-ADAS warming is similar to the warming inferred from satellite retrievals, but several weaknesses in the GEOS-AGCM simulated diurnal warming are identified and directly related back to specific features in the formulation of the diurnal warming model.
Hydrogen-nitrogen greenhouse warming in Earth's early atmosphere.
Wordsworth, Robin; Pierrehumbert, Raymond
2013-01-04
Understanding how Earth has sustained surface liquid water throughout its history remains a key challenge, given that the Sun's luminosity was much lower in the past. Here we show that with an atmospheric composition consistent with the most recent constraints, the early Earth would have been significantly warmed by H(2)-N(2) collision-induced absorption. With two to three times the present-day atmospheric mass of N(2) and a H(2) mixing ratio of 0.1, H(2)-N(2) warming would be sufficient to raise global mean surface temperatures above 0°C under 75% of present-day solar flux, with CO(2) levels only 2 to 25 times the present-day values. Depending on their time of emergence and diversification, early methanogens may have caused global cooling via the conversion of H(2) and CO(2) to CH(4), with potentially observable consequences in the geological record.
Conical Current Sheets in a Source-Surface Model of the Heliosphere
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schulz, M.
2007-12-01
Different methods of modeling the coronal and heliospheric magnetic field are conveniently visualized and intercompared by applying them to ideally axisymmetric field models. Thus, for example, a dipolar B field with its moment parallel to the Sun's rotation axis leads to a flat heliospheric current sheet. More general solar B fields (still axisymmetric about the solar rotation axis for simplicity) typically lead to cone-shaped current sheets beyond the source surface (and presumably also in MHD models). As in the dipolar case [Schulz et al., Solar Phys., 60, 83-104, 1978], such conical current sheets can be made realistically thin by taking the source surface to be non-spherical in a way that reflects the underlying structure of the Sun's main B field. A source surface that seems to work well in this respect [Schulz, Ann. Geophysicae, 15, 1379-1387, 1997] is a surface of constant F = (1/r)kB, where B is the scalar strength of the Sun's main magnetic field and k (~ 1.4) is a shape parameter. This construction tends to flatten the source surface in regions where B is relatively weak. Thus, for example, the source surface for a dipolar B field is shaped somewhat like a Rugby football, whereas the source surface for an axisymmetric quadrupolar B field is similarly elongated but somewhat flattened (as if stuffed into a cone) at mid-latitudes. A linear combination of co-axial dipolar and quadrupolar B fields generates a somewhat pear-shaped (but still convex) source surface. If the region surrounded by the source surface is regarded as current-free, then the source surface itself should be (as nearly as possible) an equipotential surface for the corresponding magnetic scalar potential (expanded, for example, in spherical harmonics). The solar wind should then flow not quite radially, but rather in a straight line along the outward normal to the source surface, and the heliospheric B field should follow a corresponding generalization of Parker's spiral [Levine et al
The impact of sea surface currents in wave power potential modeling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zodiatis, George; Galanis, George; Kallos, George; Nikolaidis, Andreas; Kalogeri, Christina; Liakatas, Aristotelis; Stylianou, Stavros
2015-11-01
The impact of sea surface currents to the estimation and modeling of wave energy potential over an area of increased economic interest, the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, is investigated in this work. High-resolution atmospheric, wave, and circulation models, the latter downscaled from the regional Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) of the Copernicus marine service (former MyOcean regional MFS system), are utilized towards this goal. The modeled data are analyzed by means of a variety of statistical tools measuring the potential changes not only in the main wave characteristics, but also in the general distribution of the wave energy and the wave parameters that mainly affect it, when using sea surface currents as a forcing to the wave models. The obtained results prove that the impact of the sea surface currents is quite significant in wave energy-related modeling, as well as temporally and spatially dependent. These facts are revealing the necessity of the utilization of the sea surface currents characteristics in renewable energy studies in conjunction with their meteo-ocean forecasting counterparts.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Simeonov, J.; Holland, K. T.
2015-12-01
We developed an inversion model for river bathymetry and discharge estimation based on measurements of surface currents, water surface elevation and shoreline coordinates. The model uses a simplification of the 2D depth-averaged steady shallow water equations based on a streamline following system of coordinates and assumes spatially uniform bed friction coefficient and eddy viscosity. The spatial resolution of the predicted bathymetry is related to the resolution of the surface currents measurements. The discharge is determined by minimizing the difference between the predicted and the measured streamwise variation of the total head. The inversion model was tested using in situ and remote sensing measurements of the Kootenai River east of Bonners Ferry, ID. The measurements were obtained in August 2010 when the discharge was about 223 m3/s and the maximum river depth was about 6.5 m. Surface currents covering a 10 km reach with 8 m spatial resolution were estimated from airborne infrared video and were converted to depth-averaged currents using acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) measurements along eight cross-stream transects. The streamwise profile of the water surface elevation was measured using real-time kinematic GPS from a drifting platform. The value of the friction coefficient was obtained from forward calibration simulations that minimized the difference between the predicted and measured velocity and water level along the river thalweg. The predicted along/cross-channel water depth variation was compared to the depth measured with a multibeam echo sounder. The rms error between the measured and predicted depth along the thalweg was found to be about 60cm and the estimated discharge was 5% smaller than the discharge measured by the ADCP.
Sea surface temperatures of the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period: A comparison of PRISM3 and HadCM3
Dowsett, H.J.; Haywood, A.M.; Valdes, P.J.; Robinson, M.M.; Lunt, D.J.; Hill, D.J.; Stoll, D.K.; Foley, K.M.
2011-01-01
It is essential to document how well the current generation of climate models performs in simulating past climates to have confidence in their ability to project future conditions. We present the first global, in-depth comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from a coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model experiment and a SST reconstruction based on proxy data. This enables the identification of areas in which both the climate model and the proxy dataset require improvement.In general, the fit between model-produced SST anomalies and those formed from the available data is very good. We focus our discussion on three regions where the data–model anomaly exceeds 2 °C. 1) In the high latitude North Pacific, a systematic model error may result in anomalies that are too cold. Also, the deeper Pliocene thermocline may cause disagreement along the California margin; either the upwelling in the model is too strong or the modeled thermocline is not deep enough. 2) In the North Atlantic, the model predicts cooling in the center of a data-based warming trend that steadily increases with latitude from + 1.5 °C to >+ 6 °C. The discrepancy may arise because the modeled North Atlantic Current is too zonal compared to reality, which is reinforced by the lowering of the altitude of the Pliocene Western Cordillera Mountains. In addition, the model's use of modern bathymetry in the higher latitudes may have led the model to underestimate the northward penetration of warmer surface water into the Arctic. 3) Finally, though the data and model show good general agreement across most of the Southern Ocean, a few locations show offsets due to the modern land–sea mask used in the model.Additional considerations could account for many of the modest data–model anomalies, such as differences between calibration climatologies, the oversimplification of the seasonal cycle, and differences between SST proxies (i.e. seasonality and water depth). New SST
Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming.
Jarvis, Lauren; McCann, Kevin; Tunney, Tyler; Gellner, Gabriel; Fryxell, John M
2016-09-01
Earth's surface temperatures are projected to increase by ~1-4°C over the next century, threatening the future of global biodiversity and ecosystem stability. While this has fueled major progress in the field of physiological trait responses to warming, it is currently unclear whether routine population monitoring data can be used to predict temperature-induced population collapse. Here, we integrate trait performance theory with that of critical tipping points to test whether early warning signals can be reliably used to anticipate thermally induced extinction events. We find that a model parameterized by experimental growth rates exhibits critical slowing down in the vicinity of an experimentally tested critical threshold, suggesting that dynamical early warning signals may be useful in detecting the potentially precipitous onset of population collapse due to global climate change.
Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.
2017-12-01
By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that
Surface Current Measurements In Terra Nova Bay By Hf Radar
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Flocco, D.; Falco, P.; Wadhams, P.; Spezie, G.
We present the preliminary results of a field experiment carried out within frame- work of the CLIMA project of the Italian National Programme for Antarctic Research (PNRA) and in cooperation with the Scott Polar Research Institute of Cambridge. Dur- ing the second period (02/12/1999-23/01/2000) of the XV Italian expedition a coastal radar was used to characterize the current field in the area of Terra Nova Bay (TNB). One of the aims of the CLIMA (Climatic Long-term Interactions for the Mass balance in Antarctica) project is to determine the role of the polynya in the sea ice mass bal- ance, water structure and local climate. The OSCR-II experiment was planned in order to provide surface current measurements in the area of TNB polynya, one of the most important coastal polynya of the Ross Sea. OSCR (Ocean Surface Current Radar) is a shore based, remote sensing system designed to measure sea surface currents in coastal waters. Two radar sites (a master and a slave) provide with radial current mea- surements; data combined from both sites yield the total current vector. Unfortunately the master and slave stations did not work together throughout the whole period of the experiment. A description of the experiment and a discussion of the results, will be proposed.
Depletion region surface effects in electron beam induced current measurements.
Haney, Paul M; Yoon, Heayoung P; Gaury, Benoit; Zhitenev, Nikolai B
2016-09-07
Electron beam induced current (EBIC) is a powerful characterization technique which offers the high spatial resolution needed to study polycrystalline solar cells. Current models of EBIC assume that excitations in the p - n junction depletion region result in perfect charge collection efficiency. However we find that in CdTe and Si samples prepared by focused ion beam (FIB) milling, there is a reduced and nonuniform EBIC lineshape for excitations in the depletion region. Motivated by this, we present a model of the EBIC response for excitations in the depletion region which includes the effects of surface recombination from both charge-neutral and charged surfaces. For neutral surfaces we present a simple analytical formula which describes the numerical data well, while the charged surface response depends qualitatively on the location of the surface Fermi level relative to the bulk Fermi level. We find the experimental data on FIB-prepared Si solar cells is most consistent with a charged surface, and discuss the implications for EBIC experiments on polycrystalline materials.
Depletion region surface effects in electron beam induced current measurements
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Haney, Paul M.; Zhitenev, Nikolai B.; Yoon, Heayoung P.
2016-09-07
Electron beam induced current (EBIC) is a powerful characterization technique which offers the high spatial resolution needed to study polycrystalline solar cells. Current models of EBIC assume that excitations in the p-n junction depletion region result in perfect charge collection efficiency. However, we find that in CdTe and Si samples prepared by focused ion beam (FIB) milling, there is a reduced and nonuniform EBIC lineshape for excitations in the depletion region. Motivated by this, we present a model of the EBIC response for excitations in the depletion region which includes the effects of surface recombination from both charge-neutral and chargedmore » surfaces. For neutral surfaces, we present a simple analytical formula which describes the numerical data well, while the charged surface response depends qualitatively on the location of the surface Fermi level relative to the bulk Fermi level. We find that the experimental data on FIB-prepared Si solar cells are most consistent with a charged surface and discuss the implications for EBIC experiments on polycrystalline materials.« less
Does warm debris dust stem from asteroid belts?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Geiler, Fabian; Krivov, Alexander V.
2017-06-01
Many debris discs reveal a two-component structure, with a cold outer and a warm inner component. While the former are likely massive analogues of the Kuiper belt, the origin of the latter is still a matter of debate. In this work, we investigate whether the warm dust may be a signature of asteroid belt analogues. In the scenario tested here, the current two-belt architecture stems from an originally extended protoplanetary disc, in which planets have opened a gap separating it into the outer and inner discs which, after the gas dispersal, experience a steady-state collisional decay. This idea is explored with an analytic collisional evolution model for a sample of 225 debris discs from a Spitzer/IRS catalogue that are likely to possess a two-component structure. We find that the vast majority of systems (220 out of 225, or 98 per cent) are compatible with this scenario. For their progenitors, original protoplanetary discs, we find an average surface density slope of -0.93 ± 0.06 and an average initial mass of (3.3^{+0.4}_{-0.3})× 10^{-3} solar masses, both of which are in agreement with the values inferred from submillimetre surveys. However, dust production by short-period comets and - more rarely - inward transport from the outer belts may be viable, and not mutually excluding, alternatives to the asteroid belt scenario. The remaining five discs (2 per cent of the sample: HIP 11486, HIP 23497, HIP 57971, HIP 85790, HIP 89770) harbour inner components that appear inconsistent with dust production in an 'asteroid belt.' Warm dust in these systems must either be replenished from cometary sources or represent an aftermath of a recent rare event, such as a major collision or planetary system instability.
Physics of greenhouse effect and convection in warm oceans
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Inamdar, A. K.; Ramanathan, V.
1994-01-01
Sea surface temperature (SST) in roughly 50% of the tropical Pacific Ocean is warm enough (SST greater than 300 K) to permit deep convection. This paper examines the effects of deep convection on the climatological mean vertical distributions of water vapor and its greenhouse effect over such warm oceans. The study, which uses a combination of satellite radiation budget observations, atmospheric soundings deployed from ships, and radiation model calculations, also examines the link between SST, vertical distribution of water vapor, and its greenhouse effect in the tropical oceans. Since the focus of the study is on the radiative effects of water vapor, the radiation model calculations do not include the effects of clouds. The data are grouped into nonconvective and convective categories using SST as an index for convective activity. On average, convective regions are more humid, trap significantly more longwave radiation, and emit more radiation to the sea surface. The greenhouse effect in regions of convection operates as per classical ideas, that is, as the SST increases, the atmosphere traps the excess longwave energy emitted by the surface and reradiates it locally back to the ocean surface. The important departure from the classical picture is that the net (up minus down) fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere decrease with an increase in SST; that is, the surface and the surface-troposphere column lose the ability to radiate the excess energy to space. The cause of this super greenhouse effect at the surface is the rapid increase in the lower-troposphere humidity with SST; that of the column is due to a combination of increase in humidity in the entire column and increase in the lapse rate within the lower troposphere. The increase in the vertical distribution of humidity far exceeds that which can be attributed to the temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure; that is, the tropospheric relative humidity is larger in convective
Effect of forced-air warming on the performance of operating theatre laminar flow ventilation.
Dasari, K B; Albrecht, M; Harper, M
2012-03-01
Forced-air warming exhaust may disrupt operating theatre airflows via formation of convection currents, which depends upon differences in exhaust and operating room air temperatures. We investigated whether the floor-to-ceiling temperatures around a draped manikin in a laminar-flow theatre differed when using three types of warming devices: a forced-air warming blanket (Bair Hugger™); an over-body conductive blanket (Hot Dog™); and an under-body resistive mattress (Inditherm™). With forced-air warming, mean (SD) temperatures were significantly elevated over the surgical site vs those measured with the conductive blanket (+2.73 (0.7) °C; p<0.001) or resistive mattress (+3.63 (0.7) °C; p<0.001). Air temperature differences were insignificant between devices at floor (p=0.339), knee (p=0.799) and head height levels (p=0.573). We conclude that forced-air warming generates convection current activity in the vicinity of the surgical site. The clinical concern is that these currents may disrupt ventilation airflows intended to clear airborne contaminants from the surgical site. Anaesthesia © 2012 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.
Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth’s energy imbalance
Drijfhout, Sybren
2015-01-01
A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15–20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40–50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible. PMID:26437599
The Tropical Western Hemisphere Warm Pool
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Chunzai; Enfield, David B.
The Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) of water warmer than 28.5°C extends from the eastern North Pacific to the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, and at its peak, overlaps with the tropical North Atlantic. It has a large seasonal cycle and its interannual fluctuations of area and intensity are significant. Surface heat fluxes warm the WHWP through the boreal spring to an annual maximum of SST and areal extent in the late summer/early fall, associated with eastern North Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activities and rainfall from northern South America to the southern tier of the United States. SST and area anomalies occur at high temperatures where small changes can have a large impact on tropical convection. Observations suggest that a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback operating through longwave radiation and associated cloudiness is responsible for the WHWP SST anomalies. Associated with an increase in SST anomalies is a decrease in atmospheric sea level pressure anomalies and an anomalous increase in atmospheric convection and cloudiness. The increase in convective activity and cloudiness results in less longwave radiation loss from the surface, which then reinforces SST anomalies.
A comparison of Argo nominal surface and near-surface temperature for validation of AMSR-E SST
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, Zenghong; Chen, Xingrong; Sun, Chaohui; Wu, Xiaofen; Lu, Shaolei
2017-05-01
Satellite SST (sea surface temperature) from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) is compared with in situ temperature observations from Argo profiling floats over the global oceans to evaluate the advantages of Argo NST (near-surface temperature: water temperature less than 1 m from the surface). By comparing Argo nominal surface temperature ( 5 m) with its NST, a diurnal cycle caused by daytime warming and nighttime cooling was found, along with a maximum warming of 0.08±0.36°C during 14:00-15:00 local time. Further comparisons between Argo 5-m temperature/Argo NST and AMSR-E SST retrievals related to wind speed, columnar water vapor, and columnar cloud water indicate warming biases at low wind speed (<5 m/s) and columnar water vapor >28 mm during daytime. The warming tendency is more remarkable for AMSR-E SST/Argo 5-m temperature compared with AMSR-E SST/Argo NST, owing to the effect of diurnal warming. This effect of diurnal warming events should be excluded before validation for microwave SST retrievals. Both AMSR-E nighttime SST/Argo 5-m temperature and nighttime SST/Argo NST show generally good agreement, independent of wind speed and columnar water vapor. From our analysis, Argo NST data demonstrated their advantages for validation of satellite-retrieved SST.
Bräuer, A; English, M J M; Lorenz, N; Steinmetz, N; Perl, T; Braun, U; Weyland, W
2003-01-01
Forced-air warming has gained high acceptance as a measure for the prevention of intraoperative hypothermia. However, data on heat transfer with lower body blankets are not yet available. This study was conducted to determine the heat transfer efficacy of six complete lower body warming systems. Heat transfer of forced-air warmers can be described as follows:[1]Qdot;=h.DeltaT.A where Qdot; = heat transfer [W], h = heat exchange coefficient [W m-2 degrees C-1], DeltaT = temperature gradient between blanket and surface [ degrees C], A = covered area [m2]. We tested the following forced-air warmers in a previously validated copper manikin of the human body: (1) Bair Hugger and lower body blanket (Augustine Medical Inc., Eden Prairie, MN); (2) Thermacare and lower body blanket (Gaymar Industries, Orchard Park, NY); (3) WarmAir and lower body blanket (Cincinnati Sub-Zero Products, Cincinnati, OH); (4) Warm-Gard(R) and lower body blanket (Luis Gibeck AB, Upplands Väsby, Sweden); (5) Warm-Gard and reusable lower body blanket (Luis Gibeck AB); and (6) WarmTouch and lower body blanket (Mallinckrodt Medical Inc., St. Luis, MO). Heat flux and surface temperature were measured with 16 calibrated heat flux transducers. Blanket temperature was measured using 16 thermocouples. DeltaT was varied between -10 and +10 degrees C and h was determined by a linear regression analysis as the slope of DeltaT vs. heat flux. Mean DeltaT was determined for surface temperatures between 36 and 38 degrees C, because similar mean skin temperatures have been found in volunteers. The area covered by the blankets was estimated to be 0.54 m2. Heat transfer from the blanket to the manikin was different for surface temperatures between 36 degrees C and 38 degrees C. At a surface temperature of 36 degrees C the heat transfer was higher (between 13.4 W to 18.3 W) than at surface temperatures of 38 degrees C (8-11.5 W). The highest heat transfer was delivered by the Thermacare system (8.3-18.3 W), the
Bräuer, A; English, M J M; Steinmetz, N; Lorenz, N; Perl, T; Braun, U; Weyland, W
2002-09-01
Forced-air warming with upper body blankets has gained high acceptance as a measure for the prevention of intraoperative hypothermia. However, data on heat transfer with upper body blankets are not yet available. This study was conducted to determine the heat transfer efficacy of eight complete upper body warming systems and to gain more insight into the principles of forced-air warming. Heat transfer of forced-air warmers can be described as follows: Qdot;=h. DeltaT. A, where Qdot;= heat flux [W], h=heat exchange coefficient [W m-2 degrees C-1], DeltaT=temperature gradient between the blanket and surface [ degrees C], and A=covered area [m2]. We tested eight different forced-air warming systems: (1) Bair Hugger and upper body blanket (Augustine Medical Inc. Eden Prairie, MN); (2) Thermacare and upper body blanket (Gaymar Industries, Orchard Park, NY); (3) Thermacare (Gaymar Industries) with reusable Optisan upper body blanket (Willy Rüsch AG, Kernen, Germany); (4) WarmAir and upper body blanket (Cincinnati Sub-Zero Products, Cincinnati, OH); (5) Warm-Gard and single use upper body blanket (Luis Gibeck AB, Upplands Väsby, Sweden); (6) Warm-Gard and reusable upper body blanket (Luis Gibeck AB); (7) WarmTouch and CareDrape upper body blanket (Mallinckrodt Medical Inc., St. Luis, MO); and (8) WarmTouch and reusable MultiCover trade mark upper body blanket (Mallinckrodt Medical Inc.) on a previously validated copper manikin of the human body. Heat flux and surface temperature were measured with 11 calibrated heat flux transducers. Blanket temperature was measured using 11 thermocouples. The temperature gradient between the blanket and surface (DeltaT) was varied between -8 and +8 degrees C, and h was determined by linear regression analysis as the slope of DeltaT vs. heat flux. Mean DeltaT was determined for surface temperatures between 36 and 38 degrees C, as similar mean skin surface temperatures have been found in volunteers. The covered area was estimated to be 0
Effects of turbulence on warm clouds and precipitation with various aerosol concentrations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, Hyunho; Baik, Jong-Jin; Han, Ji-Young
2015-02-01
This study investigates the effects of turbulence-induced collision enhancement (TICE) on warm clouds and precipitation by changing the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration using a two-dimensional dynamic model with bin microphysics. TICE is determined according to the Taylor microscale Reynolds number and the turbulent dissipation rate. The thermodynamic sounding used in this study is characterized by a warm and humid atmosphere with a capping inversion layer, which is suitable for simulating warm clouds. For all CCN concentrations, TICE slightly reduces the liquid water path during the early stage of cloud development and accelerates the onset of surface precipitation. However, changes in the rainwater path and in the amount of surface precipitation that are caused by TICE depend on the CCN concentrations. For high CCN concentrations, the mean cloud drop number concentration (CDNC) decreases and the mean effective radius increases due to TICE. These changes cause an increase in the amount of surface precipitation. However, for low CCN concentrations, changes in the mean CDNC and in the mean effective radius induced by TICE are small and the amount of surface precipitation decreases slightly due to TICE. A decrease in condensation due to the accelerated coalescence between droplets explains the surface precipitation decrease. In addition, an increase in the CCN concentration can lead to an increase in the amount of surface precipitation, and the relationship between the CCN concentration and the amount of surface precipitation is affected by TICE. It is shown that these results depend on the atmospheric relative humidity.
Effects of global warming on ancient mammalian communities and their environments.
DeSantis, Larisa R G; Feranec, Robert S; MacFadden, Bruce J
2009-06-03
Current global warming affects the composition and dynamics of mammalian communities and can increase extinction risk; however, long-term effects of warming on mammals are less understood. Dietary reconstructions inferred from stable isotopes of fossil herbivorous mammalian tooth enamel document environmental and climatic changes in ancient ecosystems, including C(3)/C(4) transitions and relative seasonality. Here, we use stable carbon and oxygen isotopes preserved in fossil teeth to document the magnitude of mammalian dietary shifts and ancient floral change during geologically documented glacial and interglacial periods during the Pliocene (approximately 1.9 million years ago) and Pleistocene (approximately 1.3 million years ago) in Florida. Stable isotope data demonstrate increased aridity, increased C(4) grass consumption, inter-faunal dietary partitioning, increased isotopic niche breadth of mixed feeders, niche partitioning of phylogenetically similar taxa, and differences in relative seasonality with warming. Our data show that global warming resulted in dramatic vegetation and dietary changes even at lower latitudes (approximately 28 degrees N). Our results also question the use of models that predict the long term decline and extinction of species based on the assumption that niches are conserved over time. These findings have immediate relevance to clarifying possible biotic responses to current global warming in modern ecosystems.
Hoffbauer, Mark A.; Prettyman, Thomas H.
2001-01-01
Reduction of surface leakage current by surface passivation of Cd.sub.1-x Zn.sub.x Te and other materials using hyperthermal oxygen atoms. Surface effects are important in the performance of CdZnTe room-temperature radiation detectors used as spectrometers since the dark current is often dominated by surface leakage. A process using high-kinetic-energy, neutral oxygen atoms (.about.3 eV) to treat the surface of CdZnTe detectors at or near ambient temperatures is described. Improvements in detector performance include significantly reduced leakage current which results in lower detector noise and greater energy resolution for radiation measurements of gamma- and X-rays, thereby increasing the accuracy and sensitivity of measurements of radionuclides having complex gamma-ray spectra, including special nuclear materials.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jiménez-Muñoz, Juan C.; Mattar, Cristian; Barichivich, Jonathan; Santamaría-Artigas, Andrés; Takahashi, Ken; Malhi, Yadvinder; Sobrino, José A.; Schrier, Gerard Van Der
2016-09-01
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual climate extremes in Amazonia and other tropical regions. The current 2015/2016 EN event was expected to be as strong as the EN of the century in 1997/98, with extreme heat and drought over most of Amazonian rainforests. Here we show that this protracted EN event, combined with the regional warming trend, was associated with unprecedented warming and a larger extent of extreme drought in Amazonia compared to the earlier strong EN events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Typical EN-like drought conditions were observed only in eastern Amazonia, whilst in western Amazonia there was an unusual wetting. We attribute this wet-dry dipole to the location of the maximum sea surface warming on the Central equatorial Pacific. The impacts of this climate extreme on the rainforest ecosystems remain to be documented and are likely to be different to previous strong EN events.
Jiménez-Muñoz, Juan C; Mattar, Cristian; Barichivich, Jonathan; Santamaría-Artigas, Andrés; Takahashi, Ken; Malhi, Yadvinder; Sobrino, José A; Schrier, Gerard van der
2016-09-08
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual climate extremes in Amazonia and other tropical regions. The current 2015/2016 EN event was expected to be as strong as the EN of the century in 1997/98, with extreme heat and drought over most of Amazonian rainforests. Here we show that this protracted EN event, combined with the regional warming trend, was associated with unprecedented warming and a larger extent of extreme drought in Amazonia compared to the earlier strong EN events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Typical EN-like drought conditions were observed only in eastern Amazonia, whilst in western Amazonia there was an unusual wetting. We attribute this wet-dry dipole to the location of the maximum sea surface warming on the Central equatorial Pacific. The impacts of this climate extreme on the rainforest ecosystems remain to be documented and are likely to be different to previous strong EN events.
Impact of Soil Warming on the Plant Metabolome of Icelandic Grasslands.
Gargallo-Garriga, Albert; Ayala-Roque, Marta; Sardans, Jordi; Bartrons, Mireia; Granda, Victor; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D; Leblans, Niki I W; Oravec, Michal; Urban, Otmar; Janssens, Ivan A; Peñuelas, Josep
2017-08-23
Climate change is stronger at high than at temperate and tropical latitudes. The natural geothermal conditions in southern Iceland provide an opportunity to study the impact of warming on plants, because of the geothermal bedrock channels that induce stable gradients of soil temperature. We studied two valleys, one where such gradients have been present for centuries (long-term treatment), and another where new gradients were created in 2008 after a shallow crustal earthquake (short-term treatment). We studied the impact of soil warming (0 to +15 °C) on the foliar metabolomes of two common plant species of high northern latitudes: Agrostis capillaris , a monocotyledon grass; and Ranunculus acris , a dicotyledonous herb, and evaluated the dependence of shifts in their metabolomes on the length of the warming treatment. The two species responded differently to warming, depending on the length of exposure. The grass metabolome clearly shifted at the site of long-term warming, but the herb metabolome did not. The main up-regulated compounds at the highest temperatures at the long-term site were saccharides and amino acids, both involved in heat-shock metabolic pathways. Moreover, some secondary metabolites, such as phenolic acids and terpenes, associated with a wide array of stresses, were also up-regulated. Most current climatic models predict an increase in annual average temperature between 2-8 °C over land masses in the Arctic towards the end of this century. The metabolomes of A. capillaris and R. acris shifted abruptly and nonlinearly to soil warming >5 °C above the control temperature for the coming decades. These results thus suggest that a slight warming increase may not imply substantial changes in plant function, but if the temperature rises more than 5 °C, warming may end up triggering metabolic pathways associated with heat stress in some plant species currently dominant in this region.
Impact of Soil Warming on the Plant Metabolome of Icelandic Grasslands
Gargallo-Garriga, Albert; Ayala-Roque, Marta; Granda, Victor; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D.; Leblans, Niki I. W.; Oravec, Michal; Urban, Otmar; Janssens, Ivan A.
2017-01-01
Climate change is stronger at high than at temperate and tropical latitudes. The natural geothermal conditions in southern Iceland provide an opportunity to study the impact of warming on plants, because of the geothermal bedrock channels that induce stable gradients of soil temperature. We studied two valleys, one where such gradients have been present for centuries (long-term treatment), and another where new gradients were created in 2008 after a shallow crustal earthquake (short-term treatment). We studied the impact of soil warming (0 to +15 °C) on the foliar metabolomes of two common plant species of high northern latitudes: Agrostis capillaris, a monocotyledon grass; and Ranunculus acris, a dicotyledonous herb, and evaluated the dependence of shifts in their metabolomes on the length of the warming treatment. The two species responded differently to warming, depending on the length of exposure. The grass metabolome clearly shifted at the site of long-term warming, but the herb metabolome did not. The main up-regulated compounds at the highest temperatures at the long-term site were saccharides and amino acids, both involved in heat-shock metabolic pathways. Moreover, some secondary metabolites, such as phenolic acids and terpenes, associated with a wide array of stresses, were also up-regulated. Most current climatic models predict an increase in annual average temperature between 2–8 °C over land masses in the Arctic towards the end of this century. The metabolomes of A. capillaris and R. acris shifted abruptly and nonlinearly to soil warming >5 °C above the control temperature for the coming decades. These results thus suggest that a slight warming increase may not imply substantial changes in plant function, but if the temperature rises more than 5 °C, warming may end up triggering metabolic pathways associated with heat stress in some plant species currently dominant in this region. PMID:28832555
Calculation of wind-driven surface currents in the North Atlantic Ocean
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rees, T. H.; Turner, R. E.
1976-01-01
Calculations to simulate the wind driven near surface currents of the North Atlantic Ocean are described. The primitive equations were integrated on a finite difference grid with a horizontal resolution of 2.5 deg in longitude and latitude. The model ocean was homogeneous with a uniform depth of 100 m and with five levels in the vertical direction. A form of the rigid-lid approximation was applied. Generally, the computed surface current patterns agreed with observed currents. The development of a subsurface equatorial countercurrent was observed.
Moyes, Andrew B.; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.; Kueppers, Lara M.
2013-01-01
Continued changes in climate are projected to alter the geographic distributions of plant species, in part by affecting where individuals can establish from seed. We tested the hypothesis that warming promotes uphill redistribution of subalpine tree populations by reducing cold limitation at high elevation and enhancing drought stress at low elevation. We seeded limber pine (Pinus flexilis) into plots with combinations of infrared heating and water addition treatments, at sites positioned in lower subalpine forest, the treeline ecotone, and alpine tundra. In 2010, first-year seedlings were assessed for physiological performance and survival over the snow-free growing season. Seedlings emerged in midsummer, about 5–8 weeks after snowmelt. Low temperature was not observed to limit seedling photosynthesis or respiration between emergence and October, and thus experimental warming did not appear to reduce cold limitation at high elevation. Instead, gas exchange and water potential from all sites indicated a prevailing effect of summer moisture stress on photosynthesis and carbon balance. Infrared heaters raised soil growing degree days (base 5 °C, p p 3 m-3 consistently corresponded with moderate and severe indications of drought stress in midday stem water potential, stomatal conductance, photosynthesis, and respiration. Seedling survival was greater in watered plots than in heated plots (p = 0.01), and negatively related to soil growing degree days and duration of exposure to θ 3 m-3 in a stepwise linear regression model (p < 0.0001). We concluded that seasonal moisture stress and high soil surface temperature imposed a strong limitation to limber pine seedling establishment across a broad elevation gradient, including at treeline, and that these limitations are likely to be enhanced by further climate warming.
Europa Plumes Located near Warm Spot on Europa
2017-04-13
These images of the surface of the Jovian moon Europa, taken by NASA's Galileo spacecraft, focus on a "region of interest" on the icy moon. The image at left traces the location of the erupting plumes of material, observed by NASA's Hubble Space Telescope in 2014 and again in 2016. The plumes are located inside the area surrounded by the green oval. The green oval also corresponds to a warm region on Europa's surface, as identified by the temperature map at right. The map is based on observations by the Galileo spacecraft. The warmest area is colored bright red. Researchers speculate these data offer circumstantial evidence for unusual activity that may be related to a subsurface ocean on Europa. The dark circle just below center in both images is a crater and is not thought to be related to the warm spot or the plume activity. https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21444
Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California
Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle
2015-01-01
California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm–dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the “exceptional” 2012–2014 drought in California. PMID:25733875
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Chengzhu; Xie, Shaocheng; Klein, Stephen A.; Ma, Hsi-yen; Tang, Shuaiqi; Van Weverberg, Kwinten; Morcrette, Cyril J.; Petch, Jon
2018-03-01
All the weather and climate models participating in the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface project show a summertime surface air temperature (T2 m) warm bias in the region of the central United States. To understand the warm bias in long-term climate simulations, we assess the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, with long-term observations mainly from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program Southern Great Plains site. Quantities related to the surface energy and water budget, and large-scale circulation are analyzed to identify possible factors and plausible links involved in the warm bias. The systematic warm season bias is characterized by an overestimation of T2 m and underestimation of surface humidity, precipitation, and precipitable water. Accompanying the warm bias is an overestimation of absorbed solar radiation at the surface, which is due to a combination of insufficient cloud reflection and clear-sky shortwave absorption by water vapor and an underestimation in surface albedo. The bias in cloud is shown to contribute most to the radiation bias. The surface layer soil moisture impacts T2 m through its control on evaporative fraction. The error in evaporative fraction is another important contributor to T2 m. Similar sources of error are found in hindcast from other Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface studies. In Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations, biases in meridional wind velocity associated with the low-level jet and the 500 hPa vertical velocity may also relate to T2 m bias through their control on the surface energy and water budget.
TOPEX/El Nino Watch - Warm Water Pool is Increasing, Nov. 10, 1997
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1997-01-01
This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S./French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Nov. 10, 1997. The volume of extra warm surface water (shown in white) in the core of the El Nino continues to increase, especially in the area between 15 degrees south latitude and 15 degrees north latitude in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The area of low sea level (shown in purple) has decreased somewhat from late October. The white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 centimeters and 32 cm (6 inches to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it is about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The surface area covered by the warm water mass is about one-and-one-half times the size of the continental United States. The added amount of oceanic warm water near the Americas, with a temperature between 21 to 30 degrees Celsius (70 to 85 degrees Fahrenheit), is about 30 times the volume of water in all the U.S. Great Lakes combined. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.
The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white areas) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using these global data, limited regional measurements from buoys and ships, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmospheric system, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the National Oceanic andAcute Warm-up Effects in Submaximal Athletes: An EMG Study of Skilled Violinists.
McCrary, J Matt; Halaki, Mark; Sorkin, Evgeny; Ackermann, Bronwen J
2016-02-01
Warm-up is commonly recommended for injury prevention and performance enhancement across all activities, yet this recommendation is not supported by evidence for repetitive submaximal activities such as instrumental music performance. The objective of this study is to quantify the effects of cardiovascular, core muscle, and musical warm-ups on muscle activity levels, musical performance, and subjective experience in skilled violinists. Fifty-five undergraduate, postgraduate, or professional violinists performed five randomly ordered 45-s musical excerpts of varying physical demands both before and after a randomly assigned 15-min, moderate-intensity cardiovascular, core muscle, musical (technical violin exercises), or inactive control warm-up protocol. Surface EMG data were obtained for 16 muscles of the trunk, shoulders, and right arm during each musical performance. Sound recording and perceived exertion (RPE) data were also obtained. Sound recordings were randomly ordered and rated for performance quality by blinded adjudicators. Questionnaire data regarding participant pain sites and fitness levels were used to stratify participants according to pain and fitness levels. Data were analyzed using two- and three-factor ANCOVA (surface EMG and sound recording) and Wilcoxon matched pairs tests (RPE). None of the three warm-up protocols had significant effects on muscle activity levels (P ≥ 0.10). Performance quality did not significantly increase (P ≥ 0.21). RPE significantly decreased (P < 0.05) after warm-up for each of the three experimental warm-ups; control condition RPE did not significantly decrease (P > 0.23). Acute physiological and musical benefits from cardiovascular, core muscle, and musical warm-ups in skilled violinists are limited to decreases in RPE. This investigation provides data from the performing arts in support of sports medical evidence suggesting that warm-up only effectively enhances maximal strength and power performance.
Mechanistic Lake Modeling to Understand and Predict Heterogeneous Responses to Climate Warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Read, J. S.; Winslow, L. A.; Rose, K. C.; Hansen, G. J.
2016-12-01
Substantial warming has been documented for of hundreds globally distributed lakes, with likely impacts on ecosystem processes. Despite a clear pattern of widespread warming, thermal responses of individual lakes to climate change are often heterogeneous, with the warming rates of neighboring lakes varying across depths and among seasons. We aggregated temperature observations and parameterized mechanistic models for 9,000 lakes in the U.S. states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan to examine broad-scale lake warming trends and among-lake diversity. Daily lake temperature profiles and ice-cover dynamics were simulated using the General Lake Model for the contemporary period (1979-2015) using drivers from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) and for contemporary and future periods (1980-2100) using downscaled data from six global circulation models driven by the Representative Climate Pathway 8.5 scenario. For the contemporary period, modeled vs observed summer mean surface temperatures had a root mean squared error of 0.98°C with modeled warming trends similar to observed trends. Future simulations under the extreme 8.5 scenario predicted a median lake summer surface warming rate of 0.57°C/decade until mid-century, with slower rates in the later half of the 21st century (0.35°C/decade). Modeling scenarios and analysis of field data suggest that the lake-specific properties of size, water clarity, and depth are strong controls on the sensitivity of lakes to climate change. For example, a simulated 1% annual decline in water clarity was sufficient to override the effects of climate warming on whole lake water temperatures in some - but not all - study lakes. Understanding heterogeneous lake responses to climate variability can help identify lake-specific features that influence resilience to climate change.
Ya, Miaolei; Wu, Yuling; Li, Yongyu; Wang, Xinhong
2017-03-01
Water masses are the crucial factor driving the terrigenous anthropogenic organochlorine compounds (OCs) migration from the coast to open sea. Therefore, organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were investigated in the Northern South China Sea (NSCS), where different types of water masses are generated by the East Asian summer monsoon: Pearl River estuary plume (PREP), Guangdong offshore eddy (GDEC), South China Sea warm current (SCSWC) and wind-driven upwelling current (WDUC). No discrepant distributions of OC concentrations were found in these water masses (p > 0.05). However, compositions and diagnostic ratios of HCHs, DDTs, trans- or cis-chlordane and PCBs could reflect the discrepancies in the input, transport and transformation of OCs caused by the hydrological characteristics of water masses, therefore, this allowing them to serve as potential tracers of regional water masses. In detail, α/γ-HCH and β-HCH percentages could indicate the weathered residue in the GDEC, long-range transport in the SCSWC, rapid photodegradation in the surface WDUC and biodegradation in the deep WDUC, respectively. The predominance of o, p'-DDT and p, p'-DDT could indicate fresh input in the PREP, GDEC and WDUC. DDT/DDTs of ratios <0.5 also reflected long-range transport in the SCSWC. Different DDD/DDE ratios indicated different oxygen environments of microbial degradation in the surface and deep water of the WDUC. Trans/cis-chlordane ratios could indicate the selective degradation of trans-chlordane in different water masses. Finally, a higher proportion of penta-PCB could reflect the strong paint additive sources carried by river erosion in the PREP. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Impact of Ocean Warming on Tropical Cyclone Size and Its Destructiveness.
Sun, Yuan; Zhong, Zhong; Li, Tim; Yi, Lan; Hu, Yijia; Wan, Hongchao; Chen, Haishan; Liao, Qianfeng; Ma, Chen; Li, Qihua
2017-08-15
The response of tropical cyclone (TC) destructive potential to global warming is an open issue. A number of previous studies have ignored the effect of TC size change in the context of global warming, which resulted in a significant underestimation of the TC destructive potential. The lack of reliable and consistent historical data on TC size limits the confident estimation of the linkage between the observed trend in TC size and that in sea surface temperature (SST) under the background of global climate warming. A regional atmospheric model is used in the present study to investigate the response of TC size and TC destructive potential to increases in SST. The results show that a large-scale ocean warming can lead to not only TC intensification but also TC expansion. The TC size increase in response to the ocean warming is possibly attributed to the increase in atmospheric convective instability in the TC outer region below the middle troposphere, which facilitates the local development of grid-scale ascending motion, low-level convergence and the acceleration of tangential winds. The numerical results indicate that TCs will become stronger, larger, and unexpectedly more destructive under global warming.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Xiaoqiong; Ting, Mingfang
2017-10-01
Future hydroclimate projections from state-of-the-art climate models show large uncertainty and model spread, particularly in the tropics and over the monsoon regions. The precipitation and circulation responses to rising greenhouse gases involve a fast component associated with direct radiative forcing and a slow component associated with sea surface temperature (SST) warming; the relative importance of the two may contribute to model discrepancies. In this study, regional hydroclimate responses to greenhouse warming are assessed using output from coupled general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) and idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the rainfall changes are examined using moisture budget analysis. Results show that direct radiative forcing and SST change exert significantly different responses both over land and ocean. For most part of the Asian monsoon region, the summertime rainfall changes are dominated by the direct CO2 radiative effect through enhanced monsoon circulation. The response to SST warming shows a larger model spread compared to direct radiative forcing, possibly due to the cancellation between the thermodynamical and dynamical components. While the thermodynamical response of the Asian monsoon is robust across the models, there is a lack of consensus for the dynamical response among the models and weak multi-model mean responses in the CMIP5 ensemble, which may be related to the multiple physical processes evolving on different time scales.
Allen, Paul B; Salyer, Steven W; Dubick, Michael A; Holcomb, John B; Blackbourne, Lorne H
2010-07-01
The purpose of this study was to develop an in vitro torso model constructed with fluid bags and to determine whether this model could be used to differentiate between the heat prevention performance of devices with active chemical or radiant forced-air heating systems compared with passive heat loss prevention devices. We tested three active (Hypothermia Prevention Management Kit [HPMK], Ready-Heat, and Bair Hugger) and five passive (wool, space blankets, Blizzard blankets, human remains pouch, and Hot Pocket) hypothermia prevention products. Active warming devices included products with chemically or electrically heated systems. Both groups were tested on a fluid model warmed to 37 degrees C versus a control with no warming device. Core temperatures were recorded every 5 minutes for 120 minutes in total. Products that prevent heat loss with an actively heated element performed better than most passive prevention methods. The original HPMK achieved and maintained significantly higher temperatures than all other methods and the controls at 120 minutes (p < 0.05). None of the devices with an actively heated element achieved the sustained 44 degrees C that could damage human tissue if left in place for 6 hours. The best passive methods of heat loss prevention were the Hot Pocket and Blizzard blanket, which performed the same as two of the three active heating methods tested at 120 minutes. Our in vitro fluid bag "torso" model seemed sensitive to detect heat loss in the evaluation of several active or passive warming devices. All active and most passive devices were better than wool blankets. Under conditions near room temperature, passive warming methods (Blizzard blanket or the Hot Pocket) were as effective as active warming devices other than the original HPMK. Further studies are necessary to determine how these data can translate to field conditions in preventing heat loss in combat casualties.
Warming in the Nordic Seas, North Atlantic storms and thinning Arctic sea ice
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alexeev, Vladimir A.; Walsh, John E.; Ivanov, Vladimir V.; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Smirnov, Alexander V.
2017-08-01
Arctic sea ice over the last few decades has experienced a significant decline in coverage both in summer and winter. The currently warming Atlantic Water layer has a pronounced impact on sea ice in the Nordic Seas (including the Barents Sea). More open water combined with the prevailing atmospheric pattern of airflow from the southeast, and persistent North Atlantic storms such as the recent extremely strong Storm Frank in December 2015, lead to increased energy transport to the high Arctic. Each of these storms brings sizeable anomalies of heat to the high Arctic, resulting in significant warming and slowing down of sea ice growth or even melting. Our analysis indicates that the recently observed sea ice decline in the Nordic Seas during the cold season around Svalbard, Franz Joseph Land and Novaya Zemlya, and the associated heat release from open water into the atmosphere, contributed significantly to the increase in the downward longwave radiation throughout the entire Arctic. Added to other changes in the surface energy budget, this increase since the 1960s to the present is estimated to be at least 10 W m-2, which can result in thinner (up to at least 15-20 cm) Arctic ice at the end of the winter. This change in the surface budget is an important contributing factor accelerating the thinning of Arctic sea ice.
Warming of infusion syringes caused by electronic syringe pumps.
Cornelius, A; Frey, B; Neff, T A; Gerber, A C; Weiss, M
2003-05-01
To evaluate inadvertent warming of the infusion syringe in four different types of electronic syringe pumps. Ambient temperature and syringe surface temperature were simultaneously measured by two electronic temperature probes in four different models of commercially available syringe pumps. Experiments were performed at an infusion rate of 1 ml h(-1) using both battery-operated and main power-operated pumps. Measurements were repeated four times with two pumps from each of the four syringe pump types at a room temperature of approximately 23 degrees C. Differences among the four syringe pump brands regarding ambient to syringe temperature gradient were compared using ANOVA. A P-value of less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Syringe warming differed significantly between the four syringe brands for both the battery-operated and main power-operated mode (ANOVA, P< 0.001 for both modes). Individual differences between syringe surface and ambient temperature ranged from 0.3 to 1.9 degrees C for battery operation and from 0.5 to 11.2 degrees C during main-power operation. Infusion solutions can be significantly warmed by syringe pumps. This has potential impact on bacterial growth and the stability of drug solutions and blood products infused, as well as on the susceptibility to hydrostatic pressure changes within the infusion syringe.
Jiménez-Muñoz, Juan C.; Mattar, Cristian; Barichivich, Jonathan; Santamaría-Artigas, Andrés; Takahashi, Ken; Malhi, Yadvinder; Sobrino, José A.; Schrier, Gerard van der
2016-01-01
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual climate extremes in Amazonia and other tropical regions. The current 2015/2016 EN event was expected to be as strong as the EN of the century in 1997/98, with extreme heat and drought over most of Amazonian rainforests. Here we show that this protracted EN event, combined with the regional warming trend, was associated with unprecedented warming and a larger extent of extreme drought in Amazonia compared to the earlier strong EN events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Typical EN-like drought conditions were observed only in eastern Amazonia, whilst in western Amazonia there was an unusual wetting. We attribute this wet-dry dipole to the location of the maximum sea surface warming on the Central equatorial Pacific. The impacts of this climate extreme on the rainforest ecosystems remain to be documented and are likely to be different to previous strong EN events. PMID:27604976
Using Radiative Signatures to Diagnose the Cause of Warming Associated with the Californian Drought
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wolf, S.; Yin, D.; Roderick, M. L.
2016-12-01
California recently experienced among the worst droughts of the last century, with unprecedented precipitation deficits and record high temperatures. The dry conditions caused severe water shortages in one of the economically most important agricultural regions of the US, particularly in the Central Valley. It has been hypothesized that anthropogenic warming is increasing the likelihood of such extreme droughts in California, or more specifically, that these drought conditions are a consequence of warmer temperatures from the enhanced greenhouse effect. Process studies suggest, however, that increased temperatures during droughts are mostly a consequence of reduced evaporative cooling resulting from the reduction in precipitation. Here we use surface radiation components from NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy Systems (CERES), climatic data and direct flux tower measurements to investigate the cause of warming associated with the recent Californian Drought. Based on radiative signatures and surface energy balance we show that the warmer temperatures were not associated with an enhanced greenhouse effect by anthropogenic warming. The radiative signature showed decreased longwave downward radiation during the water years 2013-2014 compared to the decadal mean of 2001-2012. Instead, increased solar downward radiation in combination with reduced evaporative cooling from water deficits enhanced surface temperatures and sensible heat transfer to the atmosphere. We conclude that the drought was not directly associated with warming by increased longwave downward radiation, and that there is no simple relation between warmer surface temperatures and drought.
Winslow, Luke; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Rose, Kevin C.; Robertson, Dale M.
2017-01-01
Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr−1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr−1). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr−1), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr−1 to 0.035°C yr−1, SD: 0.034°C yr−1). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, Xiaojuan; Tian, Guangjin; Feng, Jinming; Ma, Bingran; Wang, Jun; Kong, Lingqiang
2018-06-01
The impacts of three periods of urban land expansion during 1990-2010 on near-surface air temperature in summer in Beijing were simulated in this study, and then the interrelation between heat waves and urban warming was assessed. We ran the sensitivity tests using the mesoscaleWeather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a single urban canopy model, as well as high-resolution land cover data. The warming area expanded approximately at the same scale as the urban land expansion. The average regional warming induced by urban expansion increased but the warming speed declined slightly during 2000-2010. The smallest warming occurred at noon and then increased gradually in the afternoon before peaking at around 2000 LST—the time of sunset. In the daytime, urban warming was primarily caused by the decrease in latent heat flux at the urban surface. Urbanization led to more ground heat flux during the day and then more release at night, which resulted in nocturnal warming. Urban warming at night was higher than that in the day, although the nighttime increment in sensible heat flux was smaller. This was because the shallower planetary boundary layer at night reduced the release efficiency of near-surface heat. The simulated results also suggested that heat waves or high temperature weather enhanced urban warming intensity at night. Heat waves caused more heat to be stored in the surface during the day, greater heat released at night, and thus higher nighttime warming. Our results demonstrate a positive feedback effect between urban warming and heat waves in urban areas.
Portrait of a Warming Ocean and Rising Sea Levels: Trend of Sea Level Change 1993-2008
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
2008-01-01
Warming water and melting land ice have raised global mean sea level 4.5 centimeters (1.7 inches) from 1993 to 2008. But the rise is by no means uniform. This image, created with sea surface height data from the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellites, shows exactly where sea level has changed during this time and how quickly these changes have occurred. It's also a road map showing where the ocean currently stores the growing amount of heat it is absorbing from Earth's atmosphere and the heat it receives directly from the Sun. The warmer the water, the higher the sea surface rises. The location of heat in the ocean and its movement around the globe play a pivotal role in Earth's climate. Light blue indicates areas in which sea level has remained relatively constant since 1993. White, red, and yellow are regions where sea levels have risen the most rapidly up to 10 millimeters per year and which contain the most heat. Green areas have also risen, but more moderately. Purple and dark blue show where sea levels have dropped, due to cooler water. The dramatic variation in sea surface heights and heat content across the ocean are due to winds, currents and long-term changes in patterns of circulation. From 1993 to 2008, the largest area of rapidly rising sea levels and the greatest concentration of heat has been in the Pacific, which now shows the characteristics of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a feature that can last 10 to 20 years or even longer. In this 'cool' phase, the PDO appears as a horseshoe-shaped pattern of warm water in the Western Pacific reaching from the far north to the Southern Ocean enclosing a large wedge of cool water with low sea surface heights in the eastern Pacific. This ocean/climate phenomenon may be caused by wind-driven Rossby waves. Thousands of kilometers long, these waves move from east to west on either side of the equator changing the distribution of water mass and heat. This image of sea levelSatellite Remote Sensing of Ocean Winds, Surface Waves and Surface Currents during the Hurricanes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, G.; Perrie, W. A.; Liu, G.; Zhang, L.
2017-12-01
Hurricanes over the ocean have been observed by spaceborne aperture radar (SAR) since the first SAR images were available in 1978. SAR has high spatial resolution (about 1 km), relatively large coverage and capability for observations during almost all-weather, day-and-night conditions. In this study, seven C-band RADARSAT-2 dual-polarized (VV and VH) ScanSAR wide images from the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) Hurricane Watch Program in 2017 are collected over five hurricanes: Harvey, Irma, Maria, Nate, and Ophelia. We retrieve the ocean winds by applying our C-band Cross-Polarization Coupled-Parameters Ocean (C-3PO) wind retrieval model [Zhang et al., 2017, IEEE TGRS] to the SAR images. Ocean waves are estimated by applying a relationship based on the fetch- and duration-limited nature of wave growth inside hurricanes [Hwang et al., 2016; 2017, J. Phys. Ocean.]. We estimate the ocean surface currents using the Doppler Shift extracted from VV-polarized SAR images [Kang et al., 2016, IEEE TGRS]. C-3PO model is based on theoretical analysis of ocean surface waves and SAR microwave backscatter. Based on the retrieved ocean winds, we estimate the hurricane center locations, maxima wind speeds, and radii of the five hurricanes by adopting the SHEW model (Symmetric Hurricane Estimates for Wind) by Zhang et al. [2017, IEEE TGRS]. Thus, we investigate possible relations between hurricane structures and intensities, and especially some possible effects of the asymmetrical characteristics on changes in the hurricane intensities, such as the eyewall replacement cycle. The three SAR images of Ophelia include the north coast of Ireland and east coast of Scotland allowing study of ocean surface currents respond to the hurricane. A system of methods capable of observing marine winds, surface waves, and surface currents from satellites is of value, even if these data are only available in near real-time or from SAR-related satellite images. Insight into high resolution ocean winds
Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion.
Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Cai, Wenju; Zwiers, Francis W; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Donghyun
2016-07-01
The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) has warmed and grown substantially during the past century. The IPWP is Earth's largest region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), has the highest rainfall, and is fundamental to global atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle. The region has also experienced the world's highest rates of sea-level rise in recent decades, indicating large increases in ocean heat content and leading to substantial impacts on small island states in the region. Previous studies have considered mechanisms for the basin-scale ocean warming, but not the causes of the observed IPWP expansion, where expansion in the Indian Ocean has far exceeded that in the Pacific Ocean. We identify human and natural contributions to the observed IPWP changes since the 1950s by comparing observations with climate model simulations using an optimal fingerprinting technique. Greenhouse gas forcing is found to be the dominant cause of the observed increases in IPWP intensity and size, whereas natural fluctuations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have played a smaller yet significant role. Further, we show that the shape and impact of human-induced IPWP growth could be asymmetric between the Indian and Pacific basins, the causes of which remain uncertain. Human-induced changes in the IPWP have important implications for understanding and projecting related changes in monsoonal rainfall, and frequency or intensity of tropical storms, which have profound socioeconomic consequences.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Gagan, M.K.; Chivas, A.R.
1995-05-01
The authors report a 12 year record study of oxygen 18 isotope signals in a coral (Ningaloo Reef), which is situated so as to give an ideal measure of the sea-surface temperature variation of the local Leeuwin Current. This record consists of nearly weekly readings from 1981 to 1993, and brackets the period following the June 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Extended study shows a strong correlation of sea-surface temperature on this coral with changes in the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP), with a lag of 2.5 years. A distinct cooling signal was seen in the inferred sea-surface temperatures frommore » coral measurements, in 1992 and 1993, which suggests the WPWP was cooled roughly 0.5{degrees}C by aerosol induced effects.« less
On the response to ocean surface currents in synthetic aperture radar imagery
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Phillips, O. M.
1984-01-01
The balance of wave action spectral density for a fixed wave-number is expressed in terms of a new dimensionless function, the degree of saturation, b, and is applied to an analysis of the variations of this quantity (and local spectral level) at wave-numbers large compared to that of the spectral peak, that are produced by variations in the ocean surface currents in the presence of wind input and wave breaking. Particular care is taken to provide physically based representations of wind input and loss by wave breaking and a relatively convenient equation is derived that specifies the distribution of the degree of saturation in a current field, relative to its ambient (undisturbed) background in the absence of currents. The magnitude of the variations in b depends on two parameters, U(o)/c, where U/(o) is the velocity scale of the current and c the phase speed of the surface waves at the (fixed) wave-number considered or sampled by SAR, and S = (L/lambda) (u*/c)(2), where L is the length scale of the current distribution, lambda the wavelength of the surface waves the length scale of the current distribution, lambda the wavelength of the surface waves and u* the friction velocity of the wind.
Nasiri, Ahmad; Akbari, Ayob; Sharifzade, GholamReza; Derakhshan, Pooya
2015-01-01
Background: Shivering is a common complication of general and epidural anesthesia. Warming methods and many drugs are used for control of shivering in the recovery room. The present study is a randomized clinical trial aimed to investigate the effects of two interventions in comparison with pethidine which is the routine treatment on shivering in patients undergoing abdominal surgery with general anesthesia. Materials and Methods: Eighty-seven patients undergoing abdominal surgery by general anesthesia were randomly assigned to three groups (two intervention groups in comparison with pethidine as routine). Patients in warmed intravenous fluids group received pre-warmed Ringer serum (38°C), patients in combined warming group received pre-warmed Ringer serum (38°C) accompanied by humid-warm oxygen, and patients in pethidine group received intravenous pethidine routinely. The elapsed time of shivering and some hemodynamic parameters of the participants were assessed for 20 min postoperatively in the recovery room. Then the collected data were analyzed by software SPSS (v. 16) with the significance level being P < 0.05. Results: The mean of elapsed time in the warmed intravenous serum group, the combined warming group, and the pethidine group were 7 (1.5) min, 6 (1.5) min, and 2.8 (0.7) min, respectively, which was statistically significant (P < 0.05). The body temperatures in both combined warming and pethidine groups were increased significantly (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Combined warming can be effective in controlling postoperative shivering and body temperature increase. PMID:26793258
Drivers of Arctic Ocean warming in CMIP5 models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Burgard, Clara; Notz, Dirk
2017-05-01
We investigate changes in the Arctic Ocean energy budget simulated by 26 general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 framework. Our goal is to understand whether the Arctic Ocean warming between 1961 and 2099 is primarily driven by changes in the net atmospheric surface flux or by changes in the meridional oceanic heat flux. We find that the simulated Arctic Ocean warming is driven by positive anomalies in the net atmospheric surface flux in 11 models, by positive anomalies in the meridional oceanic heat flux in 11 models, and by positive anomalies in both energy fluxes in four models. The different behaviors are mainly characterized by the different changes in meridional oceanic heat flux that lead to different changes in the turbulent heat loss to the atmosphere. The multimodel ensemble mean is hence not representative of a consensus across the models in Arctic climate projections.
A New Wave of Permafrost Warming in the Alaskan Interior?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Romanovsky, V. E.; Nicolsky, D.; Cable, W.; Kholodov, A. L.; Panda, S. K.
2017-12-01
The impact of climate warming on permafrost and the potential of climate feedbacks resulting from permafrost thawing have recently received a great deal of attention. Ground temperatures are a primary indicator of permafrost stability. Many of the research sites in our permafrost network are located along the North American Arctic Permafrost-Ecological Transect that spans all permafrost zones in Alaska. Most of the sites in Alaska show substantial warming of permafrost since the 1980s. The magnitude of warming has varied with location, but was typically from 0.5 to 3°C. However, this warming was not linear in time and not spatially uniform. In some regions this warming even may be reversed and a slight recent cooling of permafrost has been observed recently at some locations. The Interior of Alaska is one of such regions where a slight permafrost cooling was observed starting in the late 1990s that has continued through the 2000s and in the beginning of the 2010s. The cooling has followed the substantial increase in permafrost temperatures documented for the Interior during the 1980s and 1990s. Permafrost temperatures at 15 m depth increased here by 0.3 to 0.6°C between 1983 and 1996. In most locations they reached their maximum in the second half of the 1990s. Since then, the permafrost temperatures started to decrease slowly and by 2013 this decrease at some locations was as much as 0.3°C at 15 m depth. There are some indications that the warming trend in the Alaskan Interior permafrost resumed during the last four years. By 2016, new record highs for the entire period of measurements of permafrost temperatures at 15 m depth were recorded at several locations. The latest observed permafrost warming in the Interior was combined with higher than normal summer precipitations. This combination has triggered near-surface permafrost degradation in many locations with adverse consequences for the ground surface stability affecting ecosystems and infrastructure. In
Why Hasn't Earth Warmed as Much as Expected?
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Schwartz, Stephen E.; Charlson, Robert J.; Kahn, Ralph A.; Ogren, John A.; Rodhe, Henning
2010-01-01
The observed increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the industrial era is less than 40% of that expected from observed increases in long-lived greenhouse gases together with the best-estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity given by the 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Possible reasons for this warming discrepancy are systematically examined here. The warming discrepancy is found to be due mainly to some combination of two factors: the IPCC best estimate of climate sensitivity being too high and/or the greenhouse gas forcing being partially offset by forcing by increased concentrations of atmospheric aerosols; the increase in global heat content due to thermal disequilibrium accounts for less than 25% of the discrepancy, and cooling by natural temperature variation can account for only about 15 %. Current uncertainty in climate sensitivity is shown to preclude determining the amount of future fossil fuel CO2 emissions that would be compatible with any chosen maximum allowable increase in GMST; even the sign of such allowable future emissions is unconstrained. Resolving this situation, by empirical determination of the earth's climate sensitivity from the historical record over the industrial period or through use of climate models whose accuracy is evaluated by their performance over this period, is shown to require substantial reduction in the uncertainty of aerosol forcing over this period.
Implications of Warm Rain in Shallow Cumulus and Congestus Clouds for Large-Scale Circulations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nuijens, Louise; Emanuel, Kerry; Masunaga, Hirohiko; L'Ecuyer, Tristan
2017-11-01
Space-borne observations reveal that 20-40% of marine convective clouds below the freezing level produce rain. In this paper we speculate what the prevalence of warm rain might imply for convection and large-scale circulations over tropical oceans. We present results using a two-column radiative-convective model of hydrostatic, nonlinear flow on a non-rotating sphere, with parameterized convection and radiation, and review ongoing efforts in high-resolution modeling and observations of warm rain. The model experiments investigate the response of convection and circulation to sea surface temperature (SST) gradients between the columns and to changes in a parameter that controls the conversion of cloud condensate to rain. Convection over the cold ocean collapses to a shallow mode with tops near 850 hPa, but a congestus mode with tops near 600 hPa can develop at small SST differences when warm rain formation is more efficient. Here, interactive radiation and the response of the circulation are crucial: along with congestus a deeper moist layer develops, which leads to less low-level radiative cooling, a smaller buoyancy gradient between the columns, and therefore a weaker circulation and less subsidence over the cold ocean. The congestus mode is accompanied with more surface precipitation in the subsiding column and less surface precipitation in the deep convecting column. For the shallow mode over colder oceans, circulations also weaken with more efficient warm rain formation, but only marginally. Here, more warm rain reduces convective tops and the boundary layer depth—similar to Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) studies—which reduces the integrated buoyancy gradient. Elucidating the impact of warm rain can benefit from large-domain high-resolution simulations and observations. Parameterizations of warm rain may be constrained through collocated cloud and rain profiling from ground, and concurrent changes in convection and rain in subsiding and convecting branches of
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Chunbai; Mitra, Ambar K.
2016-01-01
Any boundary surface evolving in viscous fluid is driven with surface capillary currents. By step function defined for the fluid-structure interface, surface currents are found near a flat wall in a logarithmic form. The general flat-plate boundary layer is demonstrated through the interface kinematics. The dynamics analysis elucidates the relationship of the surface currents with the adhering region as well as the no-slip boundary condition. The wall skin friction coefficient, displacement thickness, and the logarithmic velocity-defect law of the smooth flat-plate boundary-layer flow are derived with the advent of the forced evolving boundary method. This fundamental theory has wide applications in applied science and engineering.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Kaicun; Zhou, Chunlüe
2016-04-01
Global analyses of surface mean air temperature (Tm) are key datasets for climate change studies and provide fundamental evidences for global warming. However, the causes of regional contrasts in the warming rate revealed by such datasets, i.e., enhanced warming rates over the northern high latitudes and the "warming hole" over the central U.S., are still under debate. Here we show these regional contrasts depends on the calculation methods of Tm. Existing global analyses calculated Tm from daily minimum and maximum temperatures (T2). We found that T2 has a significant standard deviation error of 0.23 °C/decade in depicting the regional warming rate from 2000 to 2013 but can be reduced by two-thirds using Tm calculated from observations at four specific times (T4), which samples diurnal cycle of land surface air temperature more often. From 1973 to 1997, compared with T4, T2 significantly underestimated the warming rate over the central U.S. and overestimated the warming rate over the northern high latitudes. The ratio of the warming rate over China to that over the U.S. reduces from 2.3 by T2 to 1.4 by T4. This study shows that the studies of regional warming can be substantially improved by T4 instead of T2.
Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, U.S.A.
Lyons, J.; Stewart, J.S.; Mitro, M.
2010-01-01
Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56.0-93.5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1?? C and water 0.8?? C), moderate warming (air 3?? C and water 2.4?? C) and major warming (air 5?? C and water 4?? C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin. ?? 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology ?? 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.
Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, U.S.A.
Stewart, Jana S.; Lyons, John D.; Matt Mitro,
2010-01-01
Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0–93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin.
Kandiano, Evgenia S; van der Meer, Marcel T J; Schouten, Stefan; Fahl, Kirsten; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S; Bauch, Henning A
2017-04-10
Investigating past interglacial climates not only help to understand how the climate system operates in general, it also forms a vital basis for climate predictions. We reconstructed vertical stratification changes in temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic for a period some 400 ka ago (MIS11), an interglacial time analogue of a future climate. As inferred from a unique set of biogeochemical, geochemical, and faunal data, the internal upper ocean stratification across MIS 11 shows distinct depth-dependent dynamical changes related to vertical as well as lateral shifts in the upper Atlantic meridional circulation system. Importantly, transient cold events are recognized near the end of the long phase of postglacial warming at surface, subsurface, mid, and deeper water layers. These data demonstrate that MIS 11 coolings over the North Atlantic were initially triggered by freshwater input at the surface and expansion of cold polar waters into the Subpolar Gyre. The cooling signal was then transmitted downwards into mid-water depths. Since the cold events occurred after the main deglacial phase we suggest that their cause might be related to continuous melting of the Greenland ice sheet, a mechanism that might also be relevant for the present and upcoming climate.
Studies of Current Circulation at Ocean Waste Disposal Sites
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Klemas, V. (Principal Investigator); Davis, G.; Henry, R.
1976-01-01
The author has identified the following significant results. Acid waste plume was observed in LANDSAT imagery fourteen times ranging from during dump up to 54 hours after dump. Circulation processes at the waste disposal site are highly storm-dominated, with the majority of the water transport occurring during strong northeasterlies. There is a mean flow to the south along shore. This appears to be due to the fact that northeasterly winds produce stronger currents than those driven by southeasterly winds and by the thermohaline circulation. During the warm months (May through October), the ocean at the dump site stratifies with a distinct thermocline observed during all summer cruising at depths ranging from 10 to 21 m. During stratified conditions, the near-bottom currents were small. Surface currents responded to wind conditions resulting in rapid movement of surface drogues on windy days. Mid-depth drogues showed an intermediate behavior, moving more rapidly as wind velocities increased.
Cellular convection in a chamber with a warm surface raft
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Whitehead, J. A.; Shea, Erin; Behn, Mark D.
2011-10-01
We calculate velocity and temperature fields for Rayleigh-Benard convection in a chamber with a warm raft that floats along the top surface for Rayleigh number up to Ra = 20 000. Two-dimensional, infinite Prandtl number, Boussinesq approximation equations are numerically advanced in time from a motionless state in a chamber of length L' and depth D'. We consider cases with an insulated raft and a raft of fixed temperature. Either oscillatory or stationary flow exists. In the case with an insulated raft over a fluid, there are only three parameters that govern the system: Rayleigh number (Ra), scaled chamber length (L = L'/D'), and scaled raft width (W). For W = 0 and L = 1, linear theory shows that the marginal state without a raft is at a Rayleigh number of 23π4=779.3, but we find that for the smallest W (determined by numerical grid size) the raft approaches the center monotonically in time for Ra<790. For 790
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Choi, W.; Kim, K. Y.
2017-12-01
Drought during the growing season (spring through summer) is severe natural hazard in the large cropland over the northern America. It is important to understand how the drought is related with the global warming and how it will change in the future. This study aims to investigate the physical mechanism of global warming impact on the spring and summertime drought over the northern America using Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function (CSEOF) analysis. The Northern Hemisphere surface warming, the most dominant mode of the surface air temperature, has resulted in decreased relative humidity and precipitation over the mid-latitude region of North America. For the viewpoint of atmospheric water demand, soil moisture and evaporation have also decreased significantly, exacerbating vulnerability of drought. These consistent features of changes in water demand and supply related with the global warming can provide a possibility of credible insight for future drought change.
A century of ocean warming on Florida Keys coral reefs: historic in situ observations
Kuffner, Ilsa B.; Lidz, Barbara H.; Hudson, J. Harold; Anderson, Jeffery S.
2015-01-01
There is strong evidence that global climate change over the last several decades has caused shifts in species distributions, species extinctions, and alterations in the functioning of ecosystems. However, because of high variability on short (i.e., diurnal, seasonal, and annual) timescales as well as the recency of a comprehensive instrumental record, it is difficult to detect or provide evidence for long-term, site-specific trends in ocean temperature. Here we analyze five in situ datasets from Florida Keys coral reef habitats, including historic measurements taken by lighthouse keepers, to provide three independent lines of evidence supporting approximately 0.8 °C of warming in sea surface temperature (SST) over the last century. Results indicate that the warming observed in the records between 1878 and 2012 can be fully accounted for by the warming observed in recent decades (from 1975 to 2007), documented using in situ thermographs on a mid-shore patch reef. The magnitude of warming revealed here is similar to that found in other SST datasets from the region and to that observed in global mean surface temperature. The geologic context and significance of recent ocean warming to coral growth and population dynamics are discussed, as is the future prognosis for the Florida reef tract.
Controlled soil warming powered by alternative energy for remote field sites.
Johnstone, Jill F; Henkelman, Jonathan; Allen, Kirsten; Helgason, Warren; Bedard-Haughn, Angela
2013-01-01
Experiments using controlled manipulation of climate variables in the field are critical for developing and testing mechanistic models of ecosystem responses to climate change. Despite rapid changes in climate observed in many high latitude and high altitude environments, controlled manipulations in these remote regions have largely been limited to passive experimental methods with variable effects on environmental factors. In this study, we tested a method of controlled soil warming suitable for remote field locations that can be powered using alternative energy sources. The design was tested in high latitude, alpine tundra of southern Yukon Territory, Canada, in 2010 and 2011. Electrical warming probes were inserted vertically in the near-surface soil and powered with photovoltaics attached to a monitoring and control system. The warming manipulation achieved a stable target warming of 1.3 to 2 °C in 1 m(2) plots while minimizing disturbance to soil and vegetation. Active control of power output in the warming plots allowed the treatment to closely match spatial and temporal variations in soil temperature while optimizing system performance during periods of low power supply. Active soil heating with vertical electric probes powered by alternative energy is a viable option for remote sites and presents a low-disturbance option for soil warming experiments. This active heating design provides a valuable tool for examining the impacts of soil warming on ecosystem processes.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jia, Y.; Xiao, X.; Yu, M.; Yuan, Z. N.; Zhang, H.; Zhao, M.
2017-12-01
The Yellow Sea (YS) environment is influenced by both continental and oceanic forcing. The Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) is the most significantly hydrological characteristics of the YS in winter, which is a conduit by which the deep Pacific Ocean influences the YS. Paleo-environmental records are essential for understanding the evolution of the YS environment, especially the spatial distribution of the sea surface temperature (SST) records which can be used to interpret the controlling factors of the YSWC. Previous studies mostly focused on the temporal variation but studies on both temporal and spatial environmental evolution are rather sparse. We used Uk37 temperature records in 9 cores located the north of 35°N in YS to reconstruct the spatial/temporal variations of the SST during the Holocene and further to understand the main natural factors that influenced the evolution of the YS environment and current system. All the SST records in 9 sediment cores displayed the similar trend during the Holocene, showing a regional response to marine environmental variability in the east China Seas influenced by the YSWC. To reconstruct the historical westward shift of the YSWC relative to the bathymetric trough of the YS, we compared SST records of the cores located in the west and east side of the axis of the modern YSWC. The obvious westward shift of the YSWC was observed during the periods of 4500-5000aBP, 2800-3400aBP and 1600-0aBP, especially 1000-0aBP, indicating by the distinctly gradual temperature gradients. The comparison of the East Asian Winter Monsoon(EAWM) and the Kuroshio current intensity records with the SST records revealed that the westward shift of the YSWC might be controlled by the Kuroshio intensity. Our findings have important implications for understanding the mechanisms of the variability of the YSWC.
Copepod community succession during warm season in Lagoon Notoro-ko, northeastern Hokkaido, Japan
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nakagawa, Yoshizumi; Ichikawa, Hideaki; Kitamura, Mitsuaki; Nishino, Yasuto; Taniguchi, Akira
2015-06-01
Lagoon Notoro-ko, located on the northeastern coast of Hokkaido, Japan, and connected to the Okhotsk Sea by a human-made channel, is strongly influenced by local hydrography, as water masses in the lagoon are seasonally influenced by the Soya Warm Current and the East Sakhalin Current. We here report on the succession of copepod communities during the warm season in relation to water mass exchange. Copepods were categorized into four seasonal communities (spring/early-summer, mid-summer, late-summer/fall, and early-winter) via a cluster analysis based on Bray-Curtis similarities. Spring/early-summer and early-winter communities were characterized by the temperate-boreal calanoid Pseudocalanus newmani, comprising 34.9%-77.6% of the total abundance of copepods during times of low temperature/salinity, as influenced by the prevailing East Sakhalin Current. Late-summer/fall communities were characterized by the neritic warm-water calanoid Paracalanus parvus s.l., comprising 63.9%-96.3% of the total abundance, as influenced by the Soya Warm Current. Mid-summer communities comprised approximately equal abundances of P. parvus, Eurytemora herdmani, Scolecithricella minor, and Centropages abdominalis (12.8%-28.2%); this community is transitional between those of the spring/early-summer and late-summer/fall. Copepod community succession in Lagoon Notoro-ko can be largely explained by seasonal changes in water masses.
Warm water vapour in the sooty outflow from a luminous carbon star.
Decin, L; Agúndez, M; Barlow, M J; Daniel, F; Cernicharo, J; Lombaert, R; De Beck, E; Royer, P; Vandenbussche, B; Wesson, R; Polehampton, E T; Blommaert, J A D L; De Meester, W; Exter, K; Feuchtgruber, H; Gear, W K; Gomez, H L; Groenewegen, M A T; Guélin, M; Hargrave, P C; Huygen, R; Imhof, P; Ivison, R J; Jean, C; Kahane, C; Kerschbaum, F; Leeks, S J; Lim, T; Matsuura, M; Olofsson, G; Posch, T; Regibo, S; Savini, G; Sibthorpe, B; Swinyard, B M; Yates, J A; Waelkens, C
2010-09-02
The detection of circumstellar water vapour around the ageing carbon star IRC +10216 challenged the current understanding of chemistry in old stars, because water was predicted to be almost absent in carbon-rich stars. Several explanations for the water were postulated, including the vaporization of icy bodies (comets or dwarf planets) in orbit around the star, grain surface reactions, and photochemistry in the outer circumstellar envelope. With a single water line detected so far from this one carbon-rich evolved star, it is difficult to discriminate between the different mechanisms proposed. Here we report the detection of dozens of water vapour lines in the far-infrared and sub-millimetre spectrum of IRC +10216 using the Herschel satellite. This includes some high-excitation lines with energies corresponding to approximately 1,000 K, which can be explained only if water is present in the warm inner sooty region of the envelope. A plausible explanation for the warm water appears to be the penetration of ultraviolet photons deep into a clumpy circumstellar envelope. This mechanism also triggers the formation of other molecules, such as ammonia, whose observed abundances are much higher than hitherto predicted.
Metagenomics-Enabled Understanding of Soil Microbial Feedbacks to Climate Warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhou, J.; Wu, L.; Zhili, H.; Kostas, K.; Luo, Y.; Schuur, E. A. G.; Cole, J. R.; Tiedje, J. M.
2014-12-01
Understanding the response of biological communities to climate warming is a central issue in ecology and global change biology, but it is poorly understood microbial communities. To advance system-level predictive understanding of the feedbacks of belowground microbial communities to multiple climate change factors and their impacts on soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling processes, we have used integrated metagenomic technologies (e.g., target gene and shotgun metagenome sequencing, GeoChip, and isotope) to analyze soil microbial communities from experimental warming sites in Alaska (AK) and Oklahoma (OK), and long-term laboratory incubation. Rapid feedbacks of microbial communities to warming were observed in the AK site. Consistent with the changes in soil temperature, moisture and ecosystem respiration, microbial functional community structure was shifted after only 1.5-year warming, indicating rapid responses and high sensitivity of this permafrost ecosystem to climate warming. Also, warming stimulated not only functional genes involved in aerobic respiration of both labile and recalcitrant C, contributing to an observed 24% increase in 2010 growing season and 56% increase of decomposition of a standard substrate, but also functional genes for anaerobic processes (e.g., denitrification, sulfate reduction, methanogenesis). Further comparisons by shotgun sequencing showed significant differences of microbial community structure between AK and OK sites. The OK site was enriched in genes annotated for cellulose degradation, CO2 production, denitrification, sporulation, heat shock response, and cellular surface structures (e.g., trans-membrane transporters for glucosides), while the AK warmed plots were enriched in metabolic pathways related to labile C decomposition. Together, our results demonstrate the vulnerability of permafrost ecosystem C to climate warming and the importance of microbial feedbacks in mediating such vulnerability.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Lin, Yen-Heng; Lee, Ming-Ying; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Meyer, Jonathan D. D.; Rasch, Philip J.
2017-04-01
In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as documented in previous studies. The analysis indicates a recent and seemingly accelerated increase in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. The shorter duration and more rapid transition of tropospheric warming events may connect to the documented increase in midlatitude weather extremes, more so than the route of stratospheric warming type. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated remarkable strengthening of the cold Siberian high manifest in 2016.
Castillo, Karl D; Ries, Justin B; Bruno, John F; Westfield, Isaac T
2014-12-22
Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO2 over this century are predicted to cause global average surface ocean pH to decline by 0.1-0.3 pH units and sea surface temperature to increase by 1-4°C. We conducted controlled laboratory experiments to investigate the impacts of CO2-induced ocean acidification (pCO2 = 324, 477, 604, 2553 µatm) and warming (25, 28, 32°C) on the calcification rate of the zooxanthellate scleractinian coral Siderastrea siderea, a widespread, abundant and keystone reef-builder in the Caribbean Sea. We show that both acidification and warming cause a parabolic response in the calcification rate within this coral species. Moderate increases in pCO2 and warming, relative to near-present-day values, enhanced coral calcification, with calcification rates declining under the highest pCO2 and thermal conditions. Equivalent responses to acidification and warming were exhibited by colonies across reef zones and the parabolic nature of the corals' response to these stressors was evident across all three of the experiment's 30-day observational intervals. Furthermore, the warming projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the end of the twenty-first century caused a fivefold decrease in the rate of coral calcification, while the acidification projected for the same interval had no statistically significant impact on the calcification rate-suggesting that ocean warming poses a more immediate threat than acidification for this important coral species.
Castillo, Karl D.; Ries, Justin B.; Bruno, John F.; Westfield, Isaac T.
2014-01-01
Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO2 over this century are predicted to cause global average surface ocean pH to decline by 0.1–0.3 pH units and sea surface temperature to increase by 1–4°C. We conducted controlled laboratory experiments to investigate the impacts of CO2-induced ocean acidification (pCO2 = 324, 477, 604, 2553 µatm) and warming (25, 28, 32°C) on the calcification rate of the zooxanthellate scleractinian coral Siderastrea siderea, a widespread, abundant and keystone reef-builder in the Caribbean Sea. We show that both acidification and warming cause a parabolic response in the calcification rate within this coral species. Moderate increases in pCO2 and warming, relative to near-present-day values, enhanced coral calcification, with calcification rates declining under the highest pCO2 and thermal conditions. Equivalent responses to acidification and warming were exhibited by colonies across reef zones and the parabolic nature of the corals' response to these stressors was evident across all three of the experiment's 30-day observational intervals. Furthermore, the warming projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the end of the twenty-first century caused a fivefold decrease in the rate of coral calcification, while the acidification projected for the same interval had no statistically significant impact on the calcification rate—suggesting that ocean warming poses a more immediate threat than acidification for this important coral species. PMID:25377455
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rao, R. R.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.
2017-06-01
The observed seasonal and interannual variability of near-surface thermal structure of the Arabian Sea Warm Pool (ASWP) is examined utilizing a reanalysis data set for the period 1990-2008. During a year, the ASWP progressively builds from February, reaches its peak by May only in the topmost 60 m water column. The ASWP Index showed a strong seasonal cycle with distinct interannual signatures. The years with higher (lower) sea surface temperature (SST) and larger (smaller) spatial extent are termed as strong (weak) ASWP years. The differences in the magnitude and spatial extent of thermal structure between the strong and weak ASWP regimes are seen more prominently in the topmost 40 m water column. The heat content values with respect to 28 °C isotherm (HC28) are relatively higher (lower) during strong (weak) ASWP years. Even the secondary peak in HC28 seen during the preceding November-December showed higher (lower) magnitude during the strong ASWP (weak) years. The influence of the observed variability in the surface wind field, surface net air-sea heat flux, near-surface mixed layer thickness, sea surface height (SSH) anomaly, depth of 20 °C isotherm and barrier layer thickness is examined to explain the observed differences in the near-surface thermal structure of the ASWP between strong and weak regimes. The surface wind speed is much weaker in particular during the preceding October and February-March corresponding to the strong ASWP years when compared to those of the weak ASWP years implying its important role. Both stronger winter cooling during weak ASWP years and stronger pre-monsoon heating during strong ASWP years through the surface air-sea heat fluxes contribute to the observed sharp contrast in the magnitudes of both the regimes of the ASWP. The upwelling Rossby wave during the preceding summer monsoon, post-monsoon and winter seasons is stronger corresponding to the weak ASWP regime when compared to the strong ASWP regime resulting in greater
The role stratification on Indian ocean mixing under global warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Praveen, V.; Valsala, V.; Ravindran, A. M.
2017-12-01
The impact of changes in Indian ocean stratification on mixing under global warming is examined. Previous studies on global warming and associated weakening of winds reported to increase the stratification of the world ocean leading to a reduction in mixing, increased acidity, reduced oxygen and there by a reduction in productivity. However this processes is not uniform and are also modulated by changes in wind pattern of the future. Our study evaluate the role of stratification and surface fluxes on mixing focusing northern Indian ocean. A dynamical downscaling study using Regional ocean Modelling system (ROMS) forced with stratification and surface fluxes from selected CMIP5 models are presented. Results from an extensive set of historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (rcp8.5) scenario simulations are used to quantify the distinctive role of stratification on mixing.
Surface characterization of current composites after toothbrush abrasion.
Takahashi, Rena; Jin, Jian; Nikaido, Toru; Tagami, Junji; Hickel, Reinhard; Kunzelmann, Karl-Heinz
2013-01-01
The present study was designed to evaluate the surface roughness and the gloss of current composites before and after toothbrush abrasion. We assessed forty dimensionally standardized composite specimens (n=8/group) from five composites: two nanohybrids (i. e., IPS Empress Direct Enamel and IPS Empress Direct Dentin), two microhybrids (i. e., Clearfil AP-X and Filtek Z250) and one organically modified ceramics (Admira). All of the specimens were polished with 4000-grid silicon carbide papers. Surface roughness was measured with a profilometer and gloss was measured with a glossmeter before and after powered toothbrush abrasion with a 1:1 slurry (dentifrice/tap water) at 12,000 strokes in a toothbrush simulator. There was a significant increase in the surface roughness and a reduction in gloss after toothbrush abrasion in all of the composites except Clearfil AP-X (p<0.05). Simple regression analysis showed that there was not an association between the surface roughness and the gloss (R(2)=0.191, p<0.001).
Warm up I: potential mechanisms and the effects of passive warm up on exercise performance.
Bishop, David
2003-01-01
Despite limited scientific evidence supporting their effectiveness, warm-up routines prior to exercise are a well-accepted practice. The majority of the effects of warm up have been attributed to temperature-related mechanisms (e.g. decreased stiffness, increased nerve-conduction rate, altered force-velocity relationship, increased anaerobic energy provision and increased thermoregulatory strain), although non-temperature-related mechanisms have also been proposed (e.g. effects of acidaemia, elevation of baseline oxygen consumption (.VO(2)) and increased postactivation potentiation). It has also been hypothesised that warm up may have a number of psychological effects (e.g. increased preparedness). Warm-up techniques can be broadly classified into two major categories: passive warm up or active warm up. Passive warm up involves raising muscle or core temperature by some external means, while active warm up utilises exercise. Passive heating allows one to obtain the increase in muscle or core temperature achieved by active warm up without depleting energy substrates. Passive warm up, although not practical for most athletes, also allows one to test the hypothesis that many of the performance changes associated with active warm up can be largely attributed to temperature-related mechanisms.
Is "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" A Fingerprint Pattern of Climate Change?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hoerling, M. P.; Sun, L.; Perlwitz, J.
2015-12-01
Cold winters and cold waves have recently occurred in Europe, central Asia and the Midwest to eastern United States, even as global mean temperatures set record highs and Arctic amplification of surface warming continued. Since 1979, Central Asia winter temperatures have in fact declined. Conjecture has it that more cold extremes over the mid-latitude continents should occur due to global warming and the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss. A Northern Hemisphere temperature signal termed the "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" pattern has thus been surmised. Here we use a multi-model approach to test the hypothesis that such a pattern is indeed symptomatic of climate change. Diagnosis of a large model ensemble of historical climate simulations shows some individual realizations to yield cooling trends over Central Asia, but importantly the vast majority show warming. The observed cooling has thus likely been a low probability state of internal variability, not a fingerprint of forced climate change. We show that daily temperature variations over continents decline in winter due to global warming, and cold waves become less likely. This is partly related to diminution of Arctic cold air reservoirs due to warming-induced sea ice loss. Nonetheless, we find some evidence and present a physical basis that Arctic sea ice loss alone can induce a winter cooling over Central Asia, though with a magnitude that is appreciably smaller than the overall radiative-forced warming signal. Our results support the argument that recent cooling trends over central Asia, and cold extreme events over the winter continents, have principally resulted from atmospheric internal variability and have been neither a forced response to Arctic seas ice loss nor a symptom of global warming. The paradigm of climate change is thus better expressed as "Warm Arctic, Warm Continent" for the NH winter.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Xu, Y.; Ramanathan, V.; Washington, W. M.
Himalayan mountain glaciers and the snowpack over the Tibetan Plateau provide the headwater of several major rivers in Asia. In situ observations of snow cover extent since the 1960s suggest that the snowpack in the region have retreated significantly, accompanied by a surface warming of 2–2.5°C observed over the peak altitudes (5000 m). Using a high-resolution ocean–atmosphere global climate model and an observationally constrained black carbon (BC) aerosol forcing, we attribute the observed altitude dependence of the warming trends as well as the spatial pattern of reductions in snow depths and snow cover extent to various anthropogenic factors. At themore » Tibetan Plateau altitudes, the increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration exerted a warming of 1.7°C, BC 1.3°C where as cooling aerosols cause about 0.7°C cooling, bringing the net simulated warming consistent with the anomalously large observed warming. We therefore conclude that BC together with CO 2 has contributed to the snow retreat trends. In particular, BC increase is the major factor in the strong elevation dependence of the observed surface warming. The atmospheric warming by BC as well as its surface darkening of snow is coupled with the positive snow albedo feedbacks to account for the disproportionately large role of BC in high-elevation regions. Here, these findings reveal that BC impact needs to be properly accounted for in future regional climate projections, in particular on high-altitude cryosphere.« less
Xu, Y.; Ramanathan, V.; Washington, W. M.
2016-02-05
Himalayan mountain glaciers and the snowpack over the Tibetan Plateau provide the headwater of several major rivers in Asia. In situ observations of snow cover extent since the 1960s suggest that the snowpack in the region have retreated significantly, accompanied by a surface warming of 2–2.5°C observed over the peak altitudes (5000 m). Using a high-resolution ocean–atmosphere global climate model and an observationally constrained black carbon (BC) aerosol forcing, we attribute the observed altitude dependence of the warming trends as well as the spatial pattern of reductions in snow depths and snow cover extent to various anthropogenic factors. At themore » Tibetan Plateau altitudes, the increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration exerted a warming of 1.7°C, BC 1.3°C where as cooling aerosols cause about 0.7°C cooling, bringing the net simulated warming consistent with the anomalously large observed warming. We therefore conclude that BC together with CO 2 has contributed to the snow retreat trends. In particular, BC increase is the major factor in the strong elevation dependence of the observed surface warming. The atmospheric warming by BC as well as its surface darkening of snow is coupled with the positive snow albedo feedbacks to account for the disproportionately large role of BC in high-elevation regions. Here, these findings reveal that BC impact needs to be properly accounted for in future regional climate projections, in particular on high-altitude cryosphere.« less
Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hill, D. J.; Haywood, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Hunter, S. J.; Bragg, F. J.; Contoux, C.; Stepanek, C.; Sohl, L.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Chan, W.-L.;
2014-01-01
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is the first coordinated climate model comparison for a warmer palaeoclimate with atmospheric CO2 significantly higher than pre-industrial concentrations. The simulations of the mid-Pliocene warm period show global warming of between 1.8 and 3.6 C above pre-industrial surface air temperatures, with significant polar amplification. Here we perform energy balance calculations on all eight of the coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations within PlioMIP Experiment 2 to evaluate the causes of the increased temperatures and differences between the models. In the tropics simulated warming is dominated by greenhouse gas increases, with the cloud component of planetary albedo enhancing the warming in most of the models, but by widely varying amounts. The responses to mid-Pliocene climate forcing in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes are substantially different between the climate models, with the only consistent response being a warming due to increased greenhouse gases. In the high latitudes all the energy balance components become important, but the dominant warming influence comes from the clear sky albedo, only partially offset by the increases in the cooling impact of cloud albedo. This demonstrates the importance of specified ice sheet and high latitude vegetation boundary conditions and simulated sea ice and snow albedo feedbacks. The largest components in the overall uncertainty are associated with clouds in the tropics and polar clear sky albedo, particularly in sea ice regions. These simulations show that albedo feedbacks, particularly those of sea ice and ice sheets, provide the most significant enhancements to high latitude warming in the Pliocene.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Livensperger, C.; Steltzer, H.; Darrouzet-Nardi, A.; Sullivan, P.; Wallenstein, M. D.; Weintraub, M. N.
2012-12-01
Plant communities in the Arctic are undergoing changes in structure and function due to shifts in seasonality from changing winters and summer warming. These changes will impact biogeochemical cycling, surface energy balance, and functioning of vertebrate and invertebrate communities. To examine seasonal controls on aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in a moist acidic tundra ecosystem in northern Alaska, we shifted the growing season by accelerating snowmelt (using radiation absorbing shadecloth) and warming air and soil temperature (using 1 m2 open-top chambers), individually and in combination. After three years, we measured ANPP by harvesting up to 16 individual ramets, tillers and rhizomes for each of 7 plant species, including two deciduous shrubs, two graminoids, two evergreen shrubs and one forb during peak season. Our results show that ANPP per stem summed across the 7 species increased when snow melt occurred earlier. However, standing biomass, excluding current year growth, was also greater. The ratio of ANPP/standing biomass decreased in all treatments compared to the control. ANPP per unit standing biomass summed for the four shrub species decreases due to summer warming alone or in combination with early snowmelt; however early snowmelt alone did not lead to lower ANPP for the shrubs. ANPP per tiller or rhizome summed for the three herbaceous species increased in response to summer warming. Understanding the differential response of plants to changing seasonality will inform predictions of future Arctic plant community structure and function.
Voigt, Carolina; Lamprecht, Richard E; Marushchak, Maija E; Lind, Saara E; Novakovskiy, Alexander; Aurela, Mika; Martikainen, Pertti J; Biasi, Christina
2017-08-01
Rapidly rising temperatures in the Arctic might cause a greater release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere. To study the effect of warming on GHG dynamics, we deployed open-top chambers in a subarctic tundra site in Northeast European Russia. We determined carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes as well as the concentration of those gases, inorganic nitrogen (N) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) along the soil profile. Studied tundra surfaces ranged from mineral to organic soils and from vegetated to unvegetated areas. As a result of air warming, the seasonal GHG budget of the vegetated tundra surfaces shifted from a GHG sink of -300 to -198 g CO 2 -eq m -2 to a source of 105 to 144 g CO 2 -eq m -2 . At bare peat surfaces, we observed increased release of all three GHGs. While the positive warming response was dominated by CO 2 , we provide here the first in situ evidence of increasing N 2 O emissions from tundra soils with warming. Warming promoted N 2 O release not only from bare peat, previously identified as a strong N 2 O source, but also from the abundant, vegetated peat surfaces that do not emit N 2 O under present climate. At these surfaces, elevated temperatures had an adverse effect on plant growth, resulting in lower plant N uptake and, consequently, better N availability for soil microbes. Although the warming was limited to the soil surface and did not alter thaw depth, it increased concentrations of DOC, CO 2, and CH 4 in the soil down to the permafrost table. This can be attributed to downward DOC leaching, fueling microbial activity at depth. Taken together, our results emphasize the tight linkages between plant and soil processes, and different soil layers, which need to be taken into account when predicting the climate change feedback of the Arctic. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Global warming /climate change: Involving students using local example.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Isiorho, S. A.
2016-12-01
The current political climate has made it apparent that the general public does not believe in global warming. Also, there appears to be some confusion between global warming and climate change; global warming is one aspect of climate change. Most scientists believe there is climate change and global warming, although, there is still doubt among students on global warming. Some upper level undergraduate students are required to conduct water level/temperature measurements as part of their course grade. In addition to students having their individual projects, the various classes also utilize a well field within a wetland on campus to conduct group projects. Twelve wells in the well field on campus are used regularly by students to measure the depth of groundwater, the temperature of the waters and other basic water chemistry parameters like pH, conductivity and total dissolved solid (TDS) as part of the class group project. The data collected by each class is added to data from previous classes. Students work together as a group to interpret the data. More than 100 students have participated in this venture for more than 10 years of the four upper level courses: hydrogeology, environmental and urban geology, environmental conservation and wetlands. The temperature trend shows the seasonal variation as one would expect, but it also shows an upward trend (warming). These data demonstrate a change in climate and warming. Thus, the students participated in data collection, learn to write report and present their result to their peers in the classrooms.
Warming-Induced Changes to the Molecular Composition of Soil Organic Matter
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Feng, X.; Simpson, M. J.; Simpson, A. J.; Wilson, K. P.; Williams, D.
2007-12-01
Soil organic matter (SOM) contains two times more carbon than the atmosphere and the potential changes to SOM quantity and quality with global warming are a major concern. It is commonly believed that global warming will accelerate the decomposition of labile SOM compounds while refractory SOM constituents will remain stable. However, experimental evidence of molecular-level changes to SOM composition with global warming is currently lacking. Here we employ SOM biomarkers and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to study SOM composition and degradation in a soil warming experiment in southern Ontario, Canada. The soil warming experiment consisted of a control and a treatment plot in a mixed forest that had a temperature difference of about 5 degrees C for 14 months. Before soil warming the control and treatment plots had the same organic carbon (OC) content and SOM composition. Soil warming significantly increased soil OC content and the abundance of cutin-derived carbon originating from leaf tissues and decreased carbohydrates that are regarded as easily degradable. Lignin components, which are believed to be part of the stable and slowly-cycling SOM, were observed to be in an advanced stage of degradation. This observation is corroborated by increases in fungal biomass in the warmed soil because fungi are considered the primary decomposer of lignin in the soil environment. An NMR study of SOM in the warmed and control plots indicates that alkyl carbon, mainly originating from plant cuticles in the soil, increased in the warmed soil while O-alkyl carbon, primarily occurring in carbohydrates, decreased. Aromatic and phenolic carbon regions, which include the main structures found in lignin, decreased in the warmed soil. These data collectively suggest that there is a great potential for lignin degradation with soil warming, and that the refractory (aromatic) soil carbon storage may be reduced as a result of increased fungal growth in a warmer climate.
Reed, Mike; Kimberger, Oliver; McGovern, Paul D; Albrecht, Mark C
2013-08-01
Forced-air warming devices are effective for the prevention of surgical hypothermia. However, these devices intake nonsterile floor-level air, and it is unknown whether they have adequate filtration measures to prevent the internal buildup or emission of microbial contaminants. We rated the intake filtration efficiency of a popular current-generation forced-air warming device (Bair Hugger model 750, Arizant Healthcare) using a monodisperse sodium chloride aerosol in the laboratory. We further sampled 23 forced-air warming devices (same model) in daily hospital use for internal microbial buildup and airborne-contamination emissions via swabbing and particle counting. Laboratory testing found the intake filter to be 63.8% efficient. Swabbing detected microorganisms within 100% of the forced-air warming blowers sampled, with isolates of coagulase-negative staphylococci, mold, and micrococci identified. Particle counting showed 96% of forced-air warming blowers to be emitting significant levels of internally generated airborne contaminants out of the hose end. These findings highlight the need for upgraded intake filtration, preferably high-efficiency particulate air filtration (99.97% efficient), on current-generation forced-air warming devices to reduce contamination buildup and emission risks.
On the Regulation of the Pacific Warm Pool Temperature
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chou, Ming-Dah; Chou, Sue-Hsien; Chan, Pui-King; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
In the tropical western Pacific, regions of the highest sea surface temperature (SST) and the largest cloud cover are found to have the largest surface heating, primarily due to the weak evaporative cooling associated with weak winds. This situation is in variance with the suggestions that the temperature in the Pacific warm pool is regulated either by the reduced solar heating due to an enhanced cloudiness or by the enhanced evaporative cooling due to an elevated SST. It is clear that an enhanced surface heating in an enhanced convection region is not sustainable and must be interrupted by variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation. As the deep convective regions shift away from regions of high SST due primarily to seasonal variation and secondarily to interannual variation of the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation, both trade wind and evaporative cooling in the high SST region increase, leading to a reduction in SST. We conclude that the evaporative cooling associated with the seasonal and interannual variations of trade winds in the primary factor that prevent the warm pool SST from increasing to a value much higher than what is observed.
The Differential Warming Response of Britain’s Rivers (1982–2011)
Jonkers, Art R. T.; Sharkey, Kieran J.
2016-01-01
River water temperature is a hydrological feature primarily controlled by topographical, meteorological, climatological, and anthropogenic factors. For Britain, the study of freshwater temperatures has focussed mainly on observations made in England and Wales; similar comprehensive data sets for Scotland are currently unavailable. Here we present a model for the whole of mainland Britain over three recent decades (1982–2011) that incorporates geographical extrapolation to Scotland. The model estimates daily mean freshwater temperature for every river segment and for any day in the studied period, based upon physico-geographical features, daily mean air and sea temperatures, and available freshwater temperature measurements. We also extrapolate the model temporally to predict future warming of Britain’s rivers given current observed trends. Our results highlight the spatial and temporal diversity of British freshwater temperatures and warming rates. Over the studied period, Britain’s rivers had a mean temperature of 9.84°C and experienced a mean warming of +0.22°C per decade, with lower rates for segments near lakes and in coastal regions. Model results indicate April as the fastest-warming month (+0.63°C per decade on average), and show that most rivers spend on average ever more days of the year at temperatures exceeding 10°C, a critical threshold for several fish pathogens. Our results also identify exceptional warming in parts of the Scottish Highlands (in April and September) and pervasive cooling episodes, in December throughout Britain and in July in the southwest of England (in Wales, Cornwall, Devon, and Dorset). This regional heterogeneity in rates of change has ramifications for current and future water quality, aquatic ecosystems, as well as for the spread of waterborne diseases. PMID:27832108
Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification
Couce, Elena; Ridgwell, Andy; Hendy, Erica J
2013-01-01
Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40–70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered ‘marginal’ for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on
Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification.
Couce, Elena; Ridgwell, Andy; Hendy, Erica J
2013-12-01
Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral
Greater future global warming inferred from Earth's recent energy budget.
Brown, Patrick T; Caldeira, Ken
2017-12-06
Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ma, Weiwei; Wan, Xiuquan; Wang, Zhankun; Liu, Yulong; Wan, Kai
2017-12-01
The influence of high-frequency atmospheric forcing on the formation of a well-mixed summer warm water column in the central Bohai Sea is investigated comparing model simulations driven by daily surface forcing and those using monthly forcing data. In the absence of high-frequency atmospheric forcing, numerical simulations have repeatedly failed to reproduce this vertically uniform column of warm water measured over the past 35 years. However, high-frequency surface forcing is found to strongly influence the structure and distribution of the well-mixed warm water column, and simulations are in good agreement with observations. Results show that high frequency forcing enhances vertical mixing over the central bank, intensifies downward heat transport, and homogenizes the water column to form the Bohai central warm column. Evidence presented shows that high frequency forcing plays a dominant role in the formation of the well-mixed warm water column in summer, even without the effects of tidal and surface wave mixing. The present study thus provides a practical and rational way of further improving the performance of oceanic simulations in the Bohai Sea and can be used to adjust parameterization schemes of ocean models.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wang, Simon; Lin, Yen-Heng; Lee, Ming-Ying
2017-04-22
In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March-April. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as well as those documented in previous studies. Our results indicate a recent and accelerated increasemore » in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. Given that tropospheric warming events occur twice as fast than the stratospheric warming type, the noted increase in the former implies further intensification in midlatitude winter weather extremes similar to those experienced in early 2016. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated impact on the anomalously cold Siberia.« less
Project CONVERGE: Initial Results From the Mapping of Surface Currents in Palmer Deep
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Statscewich, H.; Kohut, J. T.; Winsor, P.; Oliver, M. J.; Bernard, K. S.; Cimino, M. A.; Fraser, W.
2016-02-01
The Palmer Deep submarine canyon on the Western Antarctic Peninsula provides a conduit for upwelling of relatively warm, nutrient rich waters which enhance local primary production and support a food web productive enough to sustain a large top predator biomass. In an analysis of ten years of satellite-tagged penguins, Oliver et al. (2013) showed that circulation features associated with tidal flows may be a key driver of nearshore predator distributions. During diurnal tides, the penguins feed close to their breeding colonies and during semi-diurnal tides, the penguins make foraging trips to the more distant regions of Palmer Deep. It is hypothesized that convergent features act to concentrate primary producers and aggregate schools of krill that influence the behavior of predator species. The initial results from a six month deployment of a High Frequency Radar network in Palmer Deep are presented in an attempt to characterize and quantify convergent features. During a three month period from January through March 2015, we conducted in situ sampling consisting of multiple underwater glider deployments, small boat acoustic surveys of Antarctic krill, and penguin ARGOS-linked satellite telemetry and time-depth recorders (TDRs). The combination of real-time surface current maps with adaptive in situ sampling introduces High Frequency Radar to the Antarctic in a way that allows us to rigorously and efficiently test the influence of local tidal processes on top predator foraging ecology.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Villas Boas, A. B.; Gille, S. T.; Mazloff, M. R.
2016-02-01
Surface gravity waves play a crucial role in upper-ocean dynamics, and they are an important mechanism by which the ocean exchanges energy with the overlying atmosphere. Surface waves are largely wind forced and can also be modulated by ocean currents via nonlinear wave-current interactions, leading to either an amplification or attenuation of the wave amplitude. Even though individual waves cannot be detected by present satellite altimeters, surface waves have the potential to produce a sea-state bias in altimeter measurements and can impact the sea-surface-height spectrum at high wavenumbers or frequencies. Knowing the wave climatology is relevant for the success of future altimeter missions, such as the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT). We analyse the seasonal, intra-annual and interannual variability of significant wave heights retrieved from over two decades of satellite altimeter data and assess the extent to which the variability of the surface wave field in the California Current region is modulated by the local wind and current fields.
JPRS Report, Environmental Issues, Japan: Response Strategies for Global Warming Studied
1990-06-12
views currently held both inside and outside of Japan. To cope with the global warming problem, considerations of more specific issues are needed...assessment of our common and needed efforts which are necessary in order to assess and deal with the issue of global warming more effectively....Advisory Committee on climate change. This volume contains summaries of the reports given by the members of the subgroups. Interest in the global
Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion
Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Cai, Wenju; Zwiers, Francis W.; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Donghyun
2016-01-01
The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) has warmed and grown substantially during the past century. The IPWP is Earth’s largest region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), has the highest rainfall, and is fundamental to global atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle. The region has also experienced the world’s highest rates of sea-level rise in recent decades, indicating large increases in ocean heat content and leading to substantial impacts on small island states in the region. Previous studies have considered mechanisms for the basin-scale ocean warming, but not the causes of the observed IPWP expansion, where expansion in the Indian Ocean has far exceeded that in the Pacific Ocean. We identify human and natural contributions to the observed IPWP changes since the 1950s by comparing observations with climate model simulations using an optimal fingerprinting technique. Greenhouse gas forcing is found to be the dominant cause of the observed increases in IPWP intensity and size, whereas natural fluctuations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have played a smaller yet significant role. Further, we show that the shape and impact of human-induced IPWP growth could be asymmetric between the Indian and Pacific basins, the causes of which remain uncertain. Human-induced changes in the IPWP have important implications for understanding and projecting related changes in monsoonal rainfall, and frequency or intensity of tropical storms, which have profound socioeconomic consequences. PMID:27419228
Increasing frequency and duration of Arctic winter warming events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Graham, R. M.; Cohen, L.; Petty, A.; Boisvert, L.; Rinke, A.; Hudson, S. R.; Nicolaus, M.; Granskog, M. A.
2017-12-01
Record low Arctic sea ice extents were observed during the last three winter seasons (March). During each of these winters, near-surface air temperatures close to 0°C were observed, in situ, over sea ice in the central Arctic. Recent media reports and scientific studies suggest that such winter warming events were unprecedented for the Arctic. Here we use in situ winter (December-March) temperature observations, such as those from Soviet North Pole drifting stations and ocean buoys, to determine how common Arctic winter warming events are. The earliest record we find of a winter warming event was in March 1896, where a temperature of -3.7˚C was observed at 84˚N during the Fram expedition. Observations of winter warming events exist over most of the Arctic Basin. Despite a limited observational network, temperatures exceeding -5°C were measured in situ during more than 30% of winters from 1954 to 2010, by either North Pole drifting stations or ocean buoys. Correlation coefficients between the atmospheric reanalysis, ERA-Interim, and these in-situ temperature records are shown to be on the order of 0.90. This suggests that ERA-Interim is a suitable tool for studying Arctic winter warming events. Using the ERA-Interim record (1979-2016), we show that the North Pole (NP) region typically experiences 10 warming events (T2m > -10°C) per winter, compared with only five in the Pacific Central Arctic (PCA). We find a positive trend in the overall duration of winter warming events for both the NP region (4.25 days/decade) and PCA (1.16 days/decade), due to an increased number of events of longer duration.
Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming.
Cai, Wenju; Santoso, Agus; Wang, Guojian; Weller, Evan; Wu, Lixin; Ashok, Karumuri; Masumoto, Yukio; Yamagata, Toshio
2014-06-12
The Indian Ocean dipole is a prominent mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability, affecting the lives of millions of people in Indian Ocean rim countries. In its positive phase, sea surface temperatures are lower than normal off the Sumatra-Java coast, but higher in the western tropical Indian Ocean. During the extreme positive-IOD (pIOD) events of 1961, 1994 and 1997, the eastern cooling strengthened and extended westward along the equatorial Indian Ocean through strong reversal of both the mean westerly winds and the associated eastward-flowing upper ocean currents. This created anomalously dry conditions from the eastern to the central Indian Ocean along the Equator and atmospheric convergence farther west, leading to catastrophic floods in eastern tropical African countries but devastating droughts in eastern Indian Ocean rim countries. Despite these serious consequences, the response of pIOD events to greenhouse warming is unknown. Here, using an ensemble of climate models forced by a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we project that the frequency of extreme pIOD events will increase by almost a factor of three, from one event every 17.3 years over the twentieth century to one event every 6.3 years over the twenty-first century. We find that a mean state change--with weakening of both equatorial westerly winds and eastward oceanic currents in association with a faster warming in the western than the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean--facilitates more frequent occurrences of wind and oceanic current reversal. This leads to more frequent extreme pIOD events, suggesting an increasing frequency of extreme climate and weather events in regions affected by the pIOD.
Structural Evolution of a Warm Frontal Precipitation Band During GCPEx
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Colle, Brian A.; Naeger, Aaron; Molthan, Andrew; Nesbitt, Stephen
2015-01-01
A warm frontal precipitation band developed over a few hours 50-100 km to the north of a surface warm front. The 3-km WRF was able to realistically simulate band development, although the model is somewhat too weak. Band genesis was associated with weak frontogenesis (deformation) in the presence of weak potential and conditional instability feeding into the band region, while it was closer to moist neutral within the band. As the band matured, frontogenesis increased, while the stability gradually increased in the banding region. Cloud top generating cells were prevalent, but not in WRF (too stable). The band decayed as the stability increased upstream and the frontogenesis (deformation) with the warm front weakened. The WRF may have been too weak and short-lived with the band because too stable and forcing too weak (some micro issues as well).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Heuzé, Céline; Eriksson, Leif; Carvajal, Gisela
2017-04-01
Using sea surface temperature from satellite images to retrieve sea surface currents is not a new idea, but so far its operational near-real time implementation has not been possible. Validation studies are too region-specific or uncertain, due to the errors induced by the images themselves. Moreover, the sensitivity of the most common retrieval method, the maximum cross correlation, to the three parameters that have to be set is unknown. Using model outputs instead of satellite images, biases induced by this method are assessed here, for four different seas of Western Europe, and the best of nine settings and eight temporal resolutions are determined. For all regions, tracking a small 5 km pattern from the first image over a large 30 km region around its original location on a second image, separated from the first image by 6 to 9 hours returned the most accurate results. Moreover, for all regions, the problem is not inaccurate results but missing results, where the velocity is too low to be picked by the retrieval. The results are consistent both with limitations caused by ocean surface current dynamics and with the available satellite technology, indicating that automated sea surface current retrieval from sea surface temperature images is feasible now, for search and rescue operations, pollution confinement or even for more energy efficient and comfortable ship navigation.
Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests
M.A. Cavaleri; S.C. Reed; K.W. Smith; Tana Wood
2015-01-01
Although tropical forests account for only a fraction of the planet's terrestrial surface, they exchange more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other biome on Earth, and thus play a disproportionate role in the global climate. In the next 20 years, the tropics will experience unprecedented warming, yet there is exceedingly high uncertainty about their...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Byrne, Michael P.; O'Gorman, Paul A.
2016-12-01
Climate models simulate a strong land-ocean contrast in the response of near-surface relative humidity to global warming: relative humidity tends to increase slightly over oceans but decrease substantially over land. Surface energy balance arguments have been used to understand the response over ocean but are difficult to apply over more complex land surfaces. Here, a conceptual box model is introduced, involving moisture transport between the land and ocean boundary layers and evapotranspiration, to investigate the decreases in land relative humidity as the climate warms. The box model is applied to idealized and full-complexity (CMIP5) general circulation model simulations, and it is found to capture many of the features of the simulated changes in land relative humidity. The box model suggests there is a strong link between fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean, and the greater warming over land than ocean then implies a decrease in land relative humidity. Evapotranspiration is of secondary importance for the increase in specific humidity over land, but it matters more for the decrease in relative humidity. Further analysis shows there is a strong feedback between changes in surface-air temperature and relative humidity, and this can amplify the influence on relative humidity of factors such as stomatal conductance and soil moisture.
A Massive Warm Baryonic Halo in the Coma Cluster
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bonamente, Massimiliano; Joy, Marshall K.; Lieu, Richard
2003-01-01
Several deep PSPC observations of the Coma Cluster reveal a very large scale halo of soft X-ray emission, substantially in excess of the well-known radiation from the hot intracluster medium. The excess emission, previously reported in the central region of the cluster using lower sensitivity Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) and ROSAT data, is now evident out to a radius of 2.6 Mpc, demonstrating that the soft excess radiation from clusters is a phenomenon of cosmological significance. The X-ray spectrum at these large radii cannot be modeled nonthermally but is consistent with the original scenario of thermal emission from warm gas at approx. 10(exp 6) K. The mass of the warm gas is on par with that of the hot X-ray-emitting plasma and significantly more massive if the warm gas resides in low-density filamentary structures. Thus, the data lend vital support to current theories of cosmic evolution, which predict that at low redshift approx. 30%-40% of the baryons reside in warm filaments converging at clusters of galaxies.
Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature.
Chaidez, V; Dreano, D; Agusti, S; Duarte, C M; Hoteit, I
2017-08-15
Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade -1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century 1 . However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea's thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade -1 , while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade -1 , all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.
Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming
Berg, Alexis; Findell, Kirsten; Lintner, Benjamin; Giannini, Alessandra; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lorenz, Ruth; Pitman, Andy; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Cheruy, Frédérique; Ducharne, Agnès; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.
2016-01-01
The response of the terrestrial water cycle to global warming is central to issues including water resources, agriculture and ecosystem health. Recent studies indicate that aridity, defined in terms of atmospheric supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, Ep) of water at the land surface, will increase globally in a warmer world. Recently proposed mechanisms for this response emphasize the driving role of oceanic warming and associated atmospheric processes. Here we show that the aridity response is substantially amplified by land–atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface’s response to climate and CO2 change. Using simulations from the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we show that global aridity is enhanced by the feedbacks of projected soil moisture decrease on land surface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. The physiological impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on vegetation exerts a qualitatively similar control on aridity. We reconcile these findings with previously proposed mechanisms by showing that the moist enthalpy change over land is unaffected by the land hydrological response. Thus, although oceanic warming constrains the combined moisture and temperature changes over land, land hydrology modulates the partitioning of this enthalpy increase towards increased aridity.
Pipette-surface interaction: current enhancement and intrinsic force.
Clarke, Richard W; Zhukov, Alexander; Richards, Owen; Johnson, Nicholas; Ostanin, Victor; Klenerman, David
2013-01-09
There is an intrinsic repulsion between glass and cell surfaces that allows noninvasive scanning ion conductance microscopy (SICM) of cells and which must be overcome in order to form the gigaseals used for patch clamping investigations of ion channels. However, the interactions of surfaces in physiological solutions of electrolytes, including the presence of this repulsion, for example, do not obviously agree with the standard Derjaguin-Landau-Verwey-Overbeek (DLVO) colloid theory accurate at much lower salt concentrations. In this paper we investigate the interactions of glass nanopipettes in this high-salt regime with a variety of surfaces and propose a way to resolve DLVO theory with the results. We demonstrate the utility of this understanding to SICM by topographically mapping a live cell's cytoskeleton. We also report an interesting effect whereby the ion current though a nanopipette can increase under certain conditions upon approaching an insulating surface, rather than decreasing as would be expected. We propose that this is due to electroosmotic flow separation, a high-salt electrokinetic effect. Overall these experiments yield key insights into the fundamental interactions that take place between surfaces in strong solutions of electrolytes.
Impact of 1.5°C global warming on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ritz, Catherine; Pattyn, Frank
2017-04-01
For strengthening the global response to climate change, it is crucial to assess to what extent limiting global warming to low values may reduce the impacts on society. To tackle this issue, the IPCC has decided to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. Ice sheets are well known contributors to sea level rise and many studies have aimed to provide projections of their future contribution in response to climate change, although the focus was often on worst-case scenarios. Here we propose to review the present knowledge of how the ice sheets could be affected in the case of a limited warming of 1.5°C to 2.0°C. We will review the various processes and feedbacks known to induce ice sheets vulnerability. They are different for Greenland, where we know that the surface mass balance plays a crucial role, and Antarctica where the major risk is marine ice sheet instability. One point of interest is to define, in terms of local forcing, the tipping points associated with these processes. We note that limiting global warming to 1.5°C may mean substantially more warming in the polar regions. This polar amplification can be assessed from experiments following the RCP2.6 scenario that have been carried out in recent (post IPCC AR5) studies. This scenario can be considered as an upper limit for 1.5°C. The final question concerns the long term (millennial) impact. There is a general consensus that there are tipping points both for Greenland and Antarctica, which potentially lead to irreversible mass loss. We will review the current knowledge of how long it takes to reach these tipping points and whether subsequent ice-sheet demise is, indeed, unstoppable.
Teolis, B D; Sillanpää, I; Waite, J H; Khurana, K K
2014-11-01
Sharp magnetic perturbations found by the Cassini spacecraft at the edge of the Rhea flux tube are consistent with field-aligned flux tube currents. The current system results from the difference of ion and electron gyroradii and the requirement to balance currents on the sharp Rhea surface. Differential-type hybrid codes that solve for ion velocity and magnetic field have an intrinsic difficulty modeling the plasma absorber's sharp surface. We overcome this problem by instead using integral equations to solve for ion and electron currents and obtain agreement with the magnetic perturbations at Rhea's flux tube edge. An analysis of the plasma dispersion relations and Cassini data reveals that field-guided whistler waves initiated by (1) the electron velocity anisotropy in the flux tube and (2) interaction with surface sheath electrostatic waves on topographic scales may facilitate propagation of the current system to large distances from Rhea. Current systems like those at Rhea should occur generally, for plasma absorbers of any size such as spacecraft or planetary bodies, in a wide range of space plasma environments. Motion through the plasma is not essential since the current system is thermodynamic in origin, excited by heat flow into the object. The requirements are a difference of ion and electron gyroradii and a sharp surface, i.e., without a significant thick atmosphere. Surface current balance condition yields a current system at astronomical bodiesCurrent system possible for sharp (airless) objects of any sizeCurrent system is thermoelectric and motion through the plasma nonessential.
Teolis, B D; Sillanpää, I; Waite, J H; Khurana, K K
2014-01-01
Sharp magnetic perturbations found by the Cassini spacecraft at the edge of the Rhea flux tube are consistent with field-aligned flux tube currents. The current system results from the difference of ion and electron gyroradii and the requirement to balance currents on the sharp Rhea surface. Differential-type hybrid codes that solve for ion velocity and magnetic field have an intrinsic difficulty modeling the plasma absorber's sharp surface. We overcome this problem by instead using integral equations to solve for ion and electron currents and obtain agreement with the magnetic perturbations at Rhea's flux tube edge. An analysis of the plasma dispersion relations and Cassini data reveals that field-guided whistler waves initiated by (1) the electron velocity anisotropy in the flux tube and (2) interaction with surface sheath electrostatic waves on topographic scales may facilitate propagation of the current system to large distances from Rhea. Current systems like those at Rhea should occur generally, for plasma absorbers of any size such as spacecraft or planetary bodies, in a wide range of space plasma environments. Motion through the plasma is not essential since the current system is thermodynamic in origin, excited by heat flow into the object. The requirements are a difference of ion and electron gyroradii and a sharp surface, i.e., without a significant thick atmosphere. Key Points Surface current balance condition yields a current system at astronomical bodies Current system possible for sharp (airless) objects of any size Current system is thermoelectric and motion through the plasma nonessential PMID:26167436
Global Warming: A Reduced Threat?.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Michaels, Patrick J.; Stooksbury, David E.
1992-10-01
One popular and apocalyptic vision of the world influenced by increasing concentrations of infrared-absorbing trace gases is that of ecological disaster brought about by rapidly rising temperatures, sea level, and evaporation rates. This vision developed from a suite of climate models that have since considerably changed in both their dynamics and their estimates of prospective warming. Observed temperatures indicate that much more warming should already have taken place than predicted by earlier models in the Northern Hemisphere, and that night, rather than day, readings in that hemisphere show a relative warming. A high-latitude polar-night warming or a general night warming could be either benign or beneficial. A large number of plant species show both increased growth and greater water-use efficiency under enhanced carbon dioxide.An extensive body of evidence now indicates that anthropo-generated sulfate emissions are mitigating some of the warming, and that increased cloudiness as a result of these emissions will further enhance night, rather than day, warming. The sulfate emissions, though, are not sufficient to explain all of the night warming. However, the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenerated aerosols, and the general lack of previously predicted warming, could drastically alter the debate on global warming in favor of less expensive policies.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tao, Xie; Shang-Zhuo, Zhao; William, Perrie; He, Fang; Wen-Jin, Yu; Yi-Jun, He
2016-06-01
To study the electromagnetic backscattering from a one-dimensional drifting fractal sea surface, a fractal sea surface wave-current model is derived, based on the mechanism of wave-current interactions. The numerical results show the effect of the ocean current on the wave. Wave amplitude decreases, wavelength and kurtosis of wave height increase, spectrum intensity decreases and shifts towards lower frequencies when the current occurs parallel to the direction of the ocean wave. By comparison, wave amplitude increases, wavelength and kurtosis of wave height decrease, spectrum intensity increases and shifts towards higher frequencies if the current is in the opposite direction to the direction of ocean wave. The wave-current interaction effect of the ocean current is much stronger than that of the nonlinear wave-wave interaction. The kurtosis of the nonlinear fractal ocean surface is larger than that of linear fractal ocean surface. The effect of the current on skewness of the probability distribution function is negligible. Therefore, the ocean wave spectrum is notably changed by the surface current and the change should be detectable in the electromagnetic backscattering signal. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41276187), the Global Change Research Program of China (Grant No. 2015CB953901), the Priority Academic Development Program of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD), Program for the Innovation Research and Entrepreneurship Team in Jiangsu Province, China, the Canadian Program on Energy Research and Development, and the Canadian World Class Tanker Safety Service.
Bakker, Geo L.; Italiaander, Ronald; Veenendaal, Harm R.; Wullings, Bart A.
2017-01-01
on surfaces exposed to warm water in engineered freshwater installations. An investigation with a test system supplied with different types of warm drinking water without disinfectant under controlled hydraulic conditions showed that treated aerobic groundwater (0.3 mg liter−1 of organic carbon) induced a low biofilm concentration that supported no or very limited growth of L. pneumophila. Elevated biofilm concentrations and L. pneumophila colony counts were observed on surfaces exposed to two types of extensively treated groundwater, containing 1.8 and 7.9 mg C liter−1 and complying with the microbial water quality criteria during distribution. Control measures in warm tap water installations are therefore essential for preventing growth of L. pneumophila. PMID:28062459
van der Kooij, Dick; Bakker, Geo L; Italiaander, Ronald; Veenendaal, Harm R; Wullings, Bart A
2017-03-01
exposed to warm water in engineered freshwater installations. An investigation with a test system supplied with different types of warm drinking water without disinfectant under controlled hydraulic conditions showed that treated aerobic groundwater (0.3 mg liter -1 of organic carbon) induced a low biofilm concentration that supported no or very limited growth of L. pneumophila Elevated biofilm concentrations and L. pneumophila colony counts were observed on surfaces exposed to two types of extensively treated groundwater, containing 1.8 and 7.9 mg C liter -1 and complying with the microbial water quality criteria during distribution. Control measures in warm tap water installations are therefore essential for preventing growth of L. pneumophila . Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.
Moore, Danae; Stow, Adam; Kearney, Michael Ray
2018-05-01
For ectotherms such as lizards, the importance of behavioural thermoregulation in avoiding thermal extremes is well-established and is increasingly acknowledged in modern studies of climate warming and its impacts. Less appreciated and understood are the buffering roles of retreat sites and activity phase, in part because of logistical challenges of studying below-ground activity. Burrowing and nocturnal activity are key behavioural adaptations that have enabled a diverse range of reptiles to survive extreme environmental temperatures within hot desert regions. Yet, the direct impact of recent global warming on activity potential has been hypothesised to have caused extinctions in desert lizards, including the Australian arid zone skink Liopholis kintorei. We test the relevance of this hypothesis through a detailed characterisation of the above- and below-ground thermal and hydric microclimates available to, and used by, L. kintorei. We integrate operative temperatures with observed body temperatures to construct daily activity budgets, including the inference of subterranean behaviour. We then assess the likelihood that contemporary and future local extinctions in this species, and those of similar burrowing habits, could be explained by the direct effects of warming on its activity budget and exposure to thermal extremes. We found that L. kintorei spent only 4% of its time active on the surface, primarily at dusk, and that overall potential surface activity will be increased, not restricted, with climate warming. The burrow system provides an exceptional buffer to current and future maximum extremes of temperature (≈40°C reduction from potential surface temperatures), and desiccation (burrows near 100% humidity). Therefore, any climate warming impacts on this species are likely to be indirect. Our findings reflect the general buffering capacity of underground microclimates, therefore, our conclusions for L. kintorei are more generally applicable to
The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool: critical to world oceanography and world climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
De Deckker, Patrick
2016-12-01
The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool holds a unique place on the globe. It is a large area [>30 × 106 km2] that is characterised by permanent surface temperature >28 °C and is therefore called the `heat engine' of the globe. High convective clouds which can reach altitudes up to 15 km generate much latent heat in the process of convection and this area is therefore called the `steam engine' of the world. Seasonal and contrasting monsoonal activity over the region is the cause for a broad seasonal change of surface salinities, and since the area lies along the path of the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt, it is coined the `dilution' basin due to the high incidence of tropical rain and, away from the equator, tropical cyclones contribute to a significant drop in sea water salinity. Discussion about what may happen in the future of the Warm Pool under global warming is presented together with a description of the Warm Pool during the past, such as the Last Glacial Maximum when sea levels had dropped by ~125 m. A call for urgent monitoring of the IPWP area is justified on the grounds of the significance of this area for global oceanographic and climatological processes, but also because of the concerned threats to human population living there.
Seasonal flows on warm Martian slopes
McEwen, A.S.; Ojha, L.; Dundas, C.M.; Mattson, S.S.; Byrne, S.; Wray, J.J.; Cull, S.C.; Murchie, S.L.; Thomas, N.; Gulick, V.C.
2011-01-01
Water probably flowed across ancient Mars, but whether it ever exists as a liquid on the surface today remains debatable. Recurring slope lineae (RSL) are narrow (0.5 to 5 meters), relatively dark markings on steep (25?? to 40??) slopes; repeat images from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment show them to appear and incrementally grow during warm seasons and fade in cold seasons. They extend downslope from bedrock outcrops, often associated with small channels, and hundreds of them form in some rare locations. RSL appear and lengthen in the late southern spring and summer from 48??S to 32??S latitudes favoring equator-facing slopes, which are times and places with peak surface temperatures from ???250 to 300 kelvin. Liquid brines near the surface might explain this activity, but the exact mechanism and source of water are not understood.
Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.
2004-01-01
In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation at middle to low levels causes a reduction of high cloud cover due to the depletion of water available for ice-phase rain production. As a result, more isolated, but more intense penetrative convection develops. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale tends, implying a faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbance on daily to weekly time scales. The causes of the sensitivity of the dynamical regimes to the microphysics parameterization in the GCM will be discussed.
Establishing native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Barnes, T.G.; Larkin, J.L.; Arnett, M.B.
1998-12-31
The authors evaluated various methods of establishing native warm season grasses on two reclaimed Eastern Kentucky mines from 1994--1997. Most current reclamation practices incorporate the use of tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea) and other cool-season grasses/legumes that provide little wildlife habitats. The use of native warm season grasses will likely improve wildlife habitat on reclaimed strip mines. Objectives of this study were to compare the feasibility of establishing these grasses during fall, winter, or spring using a native rangeland seeder or hydroseeding; a fertilizer application at planting; or cold-moist stratification prior to hydroseeding. Vegetative cover, bare ground, species richness, and biomassmore » samples were collected at the end of each growing season. Native warm season grass plantings had higher plant species richness compared to cool-season reclamation mixtures. There was no difference in establishment of native warm season grasses as a result of fertilization or seeding technique. Winter native warm season grass plantings were failures and cold-moist stratification did not increase plant establishment during any season. As a result of a drought during 1997, both cool-season and warm season plantings were failures. Cool-season reclamation mixtures had significantly more vegetative cover and biomass compared to native warm season grass mixtures and the native warm season grass plantings did not meet vegetative cover requirements for bond release. Forbs and legumes that established well included pale purple coneflower (Echinacea pallida), lance-leaf coreopsis (Coreopsis lanceolata), round-headed lespedeza (Lespedeza capitata), partridge pea (Cassia fasiculata), black-eyed susan (Rudbeckia hirta), butterfly milkweed (Asclepias tuberosa), and bergamot (Monarda fistulosa). Results from two demonstration plots next to research plots indicate it is possible to establish native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines for wildlife
A numerical study of the acoustic radiation due to eddy current-cryostat interactions.
Wang, Yaohui; Liu, Feng; Zhou, Xiaorong; Li, Yu; Crozier, Stuart
2017-06-01
To investigate the acoustic radiation due to eddy current-cryostat interactions and perform a qualitative analysis on noise reduction methods. In order to evaluate the sound pressure level (SPL) of the eddy current induced warm bore wall vibration, a Finite Element (FE) model was created to simulate the noises from both the warm bore wall vibration and the gradient coil assembly. For the SPL reduction of the warm bore wall vibration, we first improved the active shielding of the gradient coil, thus reducing the eddy current on the warm bore wall. A damping treatment was then applied to the warm bore wall to control the acoustic radiation. Initial simulations show that the SPL of the warm bore wall is higher than that of the gradient assembly with typical design shielding ratios at many frequencies. Subsequent simulation results of eddy current control and damping treatment application show that the average SPL reduction of the warm bore wall can be as high as 9.6 dB, and even higher in some frequency bands. Combining eddy current control and suggested damping scheme, the noise level in a MRI system can be effectively reduced. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Kleidon, Alex; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Renner, Maik
2015-01-16
We derive analytic expressions of the transient response of the hydrological cycle to surface warming from an extremely simple energy balance model in which turbulent heat fluxes are constrained by the thermodynamic limit of maximum power. For a given magnitude of steady-state temperature change, this approach predicts the transient response as well as the steady-state change in surface energy partitioning and the hydrologic cycle. We show that the transient behavior of the simple model as well as the steady state hydrological sensitivities to greenhouse warming and solar geoengineering are comparable to results from simulations using highly complex models. Many ofmore » the global-scale hydrological cycle changes can be understood from a surface energy balance perspective, and our thermodynamically-constrained approach provides a physically robust way of estimating global hydrological changes in response to altered radiative forcing.« less
The Pliocene to recent history of the Kuroshio and Tsushima Currents: a multi-proxy approach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gallagher, Stephen J.; Kitamura, Akihisa; Iryu, Yasufumi; Itaki, Takuya; Koizumi, Itaru; Hoiles, Peter W.
2015-12-01
The Kuroshio Current is a major western boundary current controlled by the North Pacific Gyre. It brings warm subtropical waters from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool to Japan exerting a major control on Asian climate. The Tsushima Current is a Kuroshio offshoot transporting warm water into the Japan Sea. Various proxies are used to determine the paleohistory of these currents. Sedimentological proxies such as reefs, bedforms, sediment source and sorting reveal paleocurrent strength and latitude. Proxies such as coral and mollusc assemblages reveal past shelfal current activity. Microfossil assemblages and organic/inorganic geochemical analyses determine paleo- sea surface temperature and salinity histories. Transportation of tropical palynomorphs and migrations of Indo-Pacific species to Japanese waters also reveal paleocurrent activity. The stratigraphic distribution of these proxies suggests the Kuroshio Current reached its present latitude (35 °N) by ~3 Ma when temperatures were 1 to 2 °C lower than present. At this time a weak Tsushima Current broke through Tsushima Strait entering the Japan Sea. Similar oceanic conditions persisted until ~2 Ma when crustal stretching deepened the Tsushima Strait allowing inflow during every interglacial. The onset of stronger interglacial/glacial cycles ~1 Ma was associated with increased North Pacific Gyre and Kuroshio Current intensity. This triggered Ryukyu Reef expansion when reefs reached their present latitude (~31 °N), thereafter the reef front advanced (~31 °N) and retreated (~25 °N) with each cycle. Foraminiferal proxy data suggests eastward deflection of the Kuroshio Current from its present path at 24 °N into the Pacific Ocean due to East Taiwan Channel restriction during the Last Glacial Maximum. Subsequently Kuroshio flow resumed its present trajectory during the Holocene. Ocean modeling and geochemical proxies show that the Kuroshio Current path may have been similar during glacials and interglacials, however
de Wit, Heleen A; Bryn, Anders; Hofgaard, Annika; Karstensen, Jonas; Kvalevåg, Maria M; Peters, Glen P
2014-07-01
Expanding high-elevation and high-latitude forest has contrasting climate feedbacks through carbon sequestration (cooling) and reduced surface reflectance (warming), which are yet poorly quantified. Here, we present an empirically based projection of mountain birch forest expansion in south-central Norway under climate change and absence of land use. Climate effects of carbon sequestration and albedo change are compared using four emission metrics. Forest expansion was modeled for a projected 2.6 °C increase in summer temperature in 2100, with associated reduced snow cover. We find that the current (year 2000) forest line of the region is circa 100 m lower than its climatic potential due to land-use history. In the future scenarios, forest cover increased from 12% to 27% between 2000 and 2100, resulting in a 59% increase in biomass carbon storage and an albedo change from 0.46 to 0.30. Forest expansion in 2100 was behind its climatic potential, forest migration rates being the primary limiting factor. In 2100, the warming caused by lower albedo from expanding forest was 10 to 17 times stronger than the cooling effect from carbon sequestration for all emission metrics considered. Reduced snow cover further exacerbated the net warming feedback. The warming effect is considerably stronger than previously reported for boreal forest cover, because of the typically low biomass density in mountain forests and the large changes in albedo of snow-covered tundra areas. The positive climate feedback of high-latitude and high-elevation expanding forests with seasonal snow cover exceeds those of afforestation at lower elevation, and calls for further attention of both modelers and empiricists. The inclusion and upscaling of these climate feedbacks from mountain forests into global models is warranted to assess the potential global impacts. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Song, Y. Tony; Colberg, Frank
2011-01-01
Observational surveys have shown significant oceanic bottom water warming, but they are too spatially and temporally sporadic to quantify the deep ocean contribution to the present-day sea level rise (SLR). In this study, altimetry sea surface height (SSH), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) ocean mass, and in situ upper ocean (0-700 m) steric height have been assessed for their seasonal variability and trend maps. It is shown that neither the global mean nor the regional trends of altimetry SLR can be explained by the upper ocean steric height plus the GRACE ocean mass. A non-Boussinesq ocean general circulation model (OGCM), allowing the sea level to rise as a direct response to the heat added into the ocean, is then used to diagnose the deep ocean steric height. Constrained by sea surface temperature data and the top of atmosphere (TOA) radiation measurements, the model reproduces the observed upper ocean heat content well. Combining the modeled deep ocean steric height with observational upper ocean data gives the full depth steric height. Adding a GRACE-estimated mass trend, the data-model combination explains not only the altimetry global mean SLR but also its regional trends fairly well. The deep ocean warming is mostly prevalent in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, suggesting a strong relation to the oceanic circulation and dynamics. Its comparison with available bottom water measurements shows reasonably good agreement, indicating that deep ocean warming below 700 m might have contributed 1.1 mm/yr to the global mean SLR or one-third of the altimeter-observed rate of 3.11 +/- 0.6 mm/yr over 1993-2008.
Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change
Roberts, James J.
2017-01-01
Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans. PMID:28683083
Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change.
Roberts, James J; Fausch, Kurt D; Schmidt, Travis S; Walters, David M
2017-01-01
Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.
Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change
Roberts, James J.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Schmidt, Travis S.; Walters, David M.
2017-01-01
Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.
Understanding Arctic surface temperature differences in reanalyses
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cullather, R. I.; Zhao, B.; Shuman, C. A.; Nowicki, S.
2017-12-01
Reanalyses in the Arctic are widely used for model evaluation and for understanding contemporary climate change. Nevertheless, differences among reanalyses in fundamental meteorological variables including surface air temperature are large. For example, the 1980-2009 mean surface air temperature for the north polar cap (70°N-90°N) among global reanalyses span a range of 2.4 K, which approximates the average warming trend from these reanalyses over the 30-year period of 2.1 K. Understanding these differences requires evaluation over the three principal surface domains of the Arctic: glaciated land, the unglaciated terrestrial surface, and sea ice/ocean. An examination is conducted of contemporary global reanalyses of the ECMWF Interim project, NASA MERRA, MERRA-2, JRA-55, and NOAA CFSR using available in situ data and assessments of the surface energy budget. Overly-simplistic representations of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface are found to be associated with local warm air temperature biases in winter. A review of progress made in the development of the MERRA-2 land-ice representation is presented. Large uncertainty is also found in temperatures over the Arctic tundra and boreal forest zone. But a key focus of temperature differences for northern high latitudes is the Arctic Ocean. Near-surface air temperature differences over the Arctic Ocean are found to be related to discrepancies in sea ice and sea surface temperature boundary data, which are severely compromised in current reanalyses. Issues with the modeled representation of sea ice cover are an additional factor in reanalysis temperature trends. Differences in the representation of the surface energy budget among the various reanalyses are also reviewed.
Understanding Arctic Surface Temperature Differences in Reanalyses
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cullather, Richard; Zhao, Bin; Shuman, Christopher; Nowicki, Sophie
2017-01-01
Reanalyses in the Arctic are widely used for model evaluation and for understanding contemporary climate change. Nevertheless, differences among reanalyses in fundamental meteorological variables including surface air temperature are large. For example, the 1980-2009 mean surface air temperature for the north polar cap (70ÂdegN-90ÂdegN) among global reanalyses span a range of 2.4 K, which approximates the average warming trend from these reanalyses over the 30-year period of 2.1 K. Understanding these differences requires evaluation over the three principal surface domains of the Arctic: glaciated land, the unglaciated terrestrial surface, and sea ice/ocean. An examination is conducted of contemporary global reanalyses of the ECMWF Interim project, NASA MERRA, MERRA-2, JRA-55, and NOAA CFSR using available in situ data and assessments of the surface energy budget. Overly-simplistic representations of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface are found to be associated with local warm air temperature biases in winter. A review of progress made in the development of the MERRA-2 land-ice representation is presented. Large uncertainty is also found in temperatures over the Arctic tundra and boreal forest zone. But a key focus of temperature differences for northern high latitudes is the Arctic Ocean. Near-surface air temperature differences over the Arctic Ocean are found to be related to discrepancies in sea ice and sea surface temperature boundary data, which are severely compromised in current reanalyses. Issues with the modeled representation of sea ice cover are an additional factor in reanalysis temperature trends. Differences in the representation of the surface energy budget among the various reanalyses are also reviewed.
Will Outer Tropical Cyclone Size Change due to Anthropogenic Warming?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schenkel, B. A.; Lin, N.; Chavas, D. R.; Vecchi, G. A.; Knutson, T. R.; Oppenheimer, M.
2017-12-01
Prior research has shown significant interbasin and intrabasin variability in outer tropical cyclone (TC) size. Moreover, outer TC size has even been shown to vary substantially over the lifetime of the majority of TCs. However, the factors responsible for both setting initial outer TC size and determining its evolution throughout the TC lifetime remain uncertain. Given these gaps in our physical understanding, there remains uncertainty in how outer TC size will change, if at all, due to anthropogenic warming. The present study seeks to quantify whether outer TC size will change significantly in response to anthropogenic warming using data from a high-resolution global climate model and a regional hurricane model. Similar to prior work, the outer TC size metric used in this study is the radius in which the azimuthal-mean surface azimuthal wind equals 8 m/s. The initial results from the high-resolution global climate model data suggest that the distribution of outer TC size shifts significantly towards larger values in each global TC basin during future climates, as revealed by 1) statistically significant increase of the median outer TC size by 5-10% (p<0.05) according to a 1,000-sample bootstrap resampling approach with replacement and 2) statistically significant differences between distributions of outer TC size from current and future climate simulations as shown using two-sample Kolmogorov Smirnov testing (p<<0.01). Additional analysis of the high-resolution global climate model data reveals that outer TC size does not uniformly increase within each basin in future climates, but rather shows substantial locational dependence. Future work will incorporate the regional mesoscale hurricane model data to help focus on identifying the source of the spatial variability in outer TC size increases within each basin during future climates and, more importantly, why outer TC size changes in response to anthropogenic warming.
Why is there net surface heating over the Antarctic Circumpolar Current?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Czaja, Arnaud; Marshall, John
2015-05-01
Using a combination of atmospheric reanalysis data, climate model outputs and a simple model, key mechanisms controlling net surface heating over the Southern Ocean are identified. All data sources used suggest that, in a streamline-averaged view, net surface heating over the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is a result of net accumulation of solar radiation rather than a result of heat gain through turbulent fluxes (the latter systematically cool the upper ocean). It is proposed that the fraction of this net radiative heat gain realized as net ACC heating is set by two factors. First, the sea surface temperature at the southern edge of the ACC. Second, the relative strength of the negative heatflux feedbacks associated with evaporation at the sea surface and advection of heat by the residual flow in the oceanic mixed layer. A large advective feedback and a weak evaporative feedback maximize net ACC heating. It is shown that the present Southern Ocean and its circumpolar current are in this heating regime.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Raymond, David J.; Fuchs, Željka
2018-04-01
A minimal model of the interaction of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) with the Indo-Pacific warm pool is presented. This model is based on the linear superposition of the flow associated with a highly simplified treatment of the MJO plus the flow induced by the warm pool itself. Both of these components parameterize rainfall as proportional to the column water vapor, which in turn is governed by a linearized moisture equation in which WISHE (wind induced surface heat exchange) plays a governing role. The MJO component has maximum growth rate for planetary wavenumber 1 and is equatorially trapped with purely zonal winds. The warm pool component exhibits a complex flow pattern, differing significantly from the classical Gill model as a result of the mean easterly flow. The combination of the two produce a flow that reproduces many aspects of the observed global flow associated with the MJO.
Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.
2017-10-01
Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.
Global Warming: If You Can't Stand the Heat
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Baird, Stephen L.
2005-01-01
Global warming is the progressive, gradual rise of the earth's average surface temperature, thought to be caused in part by increased concentrations of "greenhouse" gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. According to the National Academy of Sciences, the Earth's temperature has risen by about one degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated…
C4 grasses prosper as carbon dioxide eliminates desiccation in warmed semi-arid grassland.
Morgan, Jack A; LeCain, Daniel R; Pendall, Elise; Blumenthal, Dana M; Kimball, Bruce A; Carrillo, Yolima; Williams, David G; Heisler-White, Jana; Dijkstra, Feike A; West, Mark
2011-08-03
Global warming is predicted to induce desiccation in many world regions through increases in evaporative demand. Rising CO(2) may counter that trend by improving plant water-use efficiency. However, it is not clear how important this CO(2)-enhanced water use efficiency might be in offsetting warming-induced desiccation because higher CO(2) also leads to higher plant biomass, and therefore greater transpirational surface. Furthermore, although warming is predicted to favour warm-season, C(4) grasses, rising CO(2) should favour C(3), or cool-season plants. Here we show in a semi-arid grassland that elevated CO(2) can completely reverse the desiccating effects of moderate warming. Although enrichment of air to 600 p.p.m.v. CO(2) increased soil water content (SWC), 1.5/3.0 °C day/night warming resulted in desiccation, such that combined CO(2) enrichment and warming had no effect on SWC relative to control plots. As predicted, elevated CO(2) favoured C(3) grasses and enhanced stand productivity, whereas warming favoured C(4) grasses. Combined warming and CO(2) enrichment stimulated above-ground growth of C(4) grasses in 2 of 3 years when soil moisture most limited plant productivity. The results indicate that in a warmer, CO(2)-enriched world, both SWC and productivity in semi-arid grasslands may be higher than previously expected.
Active Movement Warm-Up Routines
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Walter, Teri; Quint, Ashleigh; Fischer, Kim; Kiger, Joy
2011-01-01
This article presents warm-ups that are designed to physiologically and psychologically prepare students for vigorous physical activity. An active movement warm-up routine is made up of three parts: (1) active warm-up movement exercises, (2) general preparation, and (3) the energy system. These warm-up routines can be used with all grade levels…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xue, X.
2017-12-01
Climatic warming is presumed to cause topsoil drought by increasing evapotranspiration and water infiltration, and by progressively inducing land degradation in alpine meadows of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. However, how soil moisture and temperature patterns of degraded alpine meadows respond to climate warming remains unclear. A six-year continuous warming experiment was carried out in both degraded and undegraded alpine meadows in the source region of the Yangtze River. The goal was to identify the effects of climatic warming and land degradation on soil moisture (θ), soil surface temperature (Tsfc), and soil temperature (Ts). In the present study, land degradation significantly reduced θ by 4.5-6.1% at a depth of 0-100 cm (P < 0.001), and increased the annual mean Tsfc by 0.8°C. Warming with an infrared heater (radiation output of 150 W m-2) significantly increased the annual mean Tsfc by 2.5°C (P < 0.001) and significantly increased θ by 4.7% at a depth of 40-60 cm. Experimental warming in degraded land reversed the positive effects of the infrared heater and caused the yearly average θ to decrease significantly by 3.7-8.1% at a depth of 0-100 cm. Our research reveals that land degradation caused a significant water deficit near the soil surface. Experimental warming aggravated topsoil drought caused by land degradation, intensified the magnitude of degradation, and caused a positive feedback in the degraded alpine meadow ecosystem. Therefore, an immediate need exists to restore degraded alpine meadow grasslands in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in anticipation of a warmer future.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bense, V. F.; Kurylyk, B. L.
2017-12-01
Sustained ground surface warming on a decadal time scale leads to an inversion of thermal gradients in the upper tens of meters. The magnitude and direction of vertical groundwater flow should influence the propagation of this warming signal, but direct field observations of this phenomenon are rare. Comparison of temperature-depth profiles in boreholes in the Veluwe area, Netherlands, collected in 1978-1982 and 2016 provided such direct measurement. We used these repeated profiles to track the downward propagation rate of the depth at which the thermal gradient is zero. Numerical modeling of the migration of this thermal gradient "inflection point" yielded estimates of downward groundwater flow rates (0-0.24 m a-1) that generally concurred with known hydrogeological conditions in the area. We conclude that analysis of inflection point depths in temperature-depth profiles impacted by surface warming provides a largely untapped opportunity to inform sustainable groundwater management plans that rely on accurate estimates of long-term vertical groundwater fluxes.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.;
1998-01-01
Triton, Neptune's largest moon, has been predicted to undergo significant seasonal changes that would reveal themselves as changes in its mean frost temperature. But whether this temperature should at the present time be increasing, decreasing or constant depends on a number of parameters (such as the thermal properties of the surface, and frost migration patterns) that are unknown. Here we report observations of a recent stellar occultation by Triton which, when combined with earlier results, show that Triton has undergone a period of global warming since 1989. Our most conservative estimates of the rate of temperature and surface-pressure increase during this period imply that the atmosphere is doubling in bulk every 10 years, significantly faster than predicted by any published frost model for Triton. Our result suggests that permanent polar caps on Triton play a c dominant role in regulating seasonal atmospheric changes. Similar processes should also be active on Pluto.
Observations of the sub-inertial, near-surface East India Coastal Current
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mukhopadhyay, S.; Shankar, D.; Aparna, S. G.; Mukherjee, A.
2017-09-01
We present surface current measurements made using two pairs of HF (high-frequency) radars deployed on the east coast of India. The radar data, used in conjunction with data from acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) measurements on the shelf and slope off the Indian east coast, confirm that the East India Coastal Current (EICC) flows poleward as a deep current during February-March. During the summer monsoon, when the EICC flows poleward, and October-December, when the EICC flows equatorward, the current is shallow (< 40 m deep), except towards the northern end of the coast. Data from Argo floats confirm a shallow mixed layer that leads to a strong vertical shear off southeast India during October-December. A consequence of the strong stratification is that the upward propagation of phase evident in the ADCP data does not always extend to the surface. Even within the seasons, however, the poleward and equatorward flows show variability at periods of the order of 20-45 days, implying that the EICC direction is the same over the top ∼100 m for short durations. The high spatial resolution of the HF radar data brings out features at scales shorter than those resolved by the altimeter and the high temporal resolution captures short bursts that are not captured in satellite-derived estimates of surface currents. The radar data show that the EICC, which is a boundary current, leaves a strong imprint on the current at the coast. Since the EICC is known to be affected significantly by remote forcing, this correlation between the boundary and nearshore current implies the need to use large-domain models even for simulating the nearshore current. Comparison with a simulation by a state-of-the-art Ocean General Circulation Model, run at a resolution of 0.1 ° × 0.1 ° , shows that the model is able to simulate only the low-frequency variability.
Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections
Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; ...
2016-01-11
Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudomore » observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2°C (3°C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.« less
Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections
Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.
2016-01-01
Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by “current knowledge” of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change. PMID:26750491
Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.
Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudomore » observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2°C (3°C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yi, Kan; Liu, Junfeng; Ban-Weiss, George; Zhang, Jiachen; Tao, Wei; Cheng, Yanli; Tao, Shu
2017-07-01
The response of surface ozone (O3) concentrations to basin-scale warming and cooling of Northern Hemisphere oceans is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Idealized, spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of ±1 °C are individually superimposed onto the North Pacific, North Atlantic, and North Indian oceans. Our simulations suggest large seasonal and regional variability in surface O3 in response to SST anomalies, especially in the boreal summer. The responses of surface O3 associated with basin-scale SST warming and cooling have similar magnitude but are opposite in sign. Increasing the SST by 1 °C in one of the oceans generally decreases the surface O3 concentrations from 1 to 5 ppbv. With fixed emissions, SST increases in a specific ocean basin in the Northern Hemisphere tend to increase the summertime surface O3 concentrations over upwind regions, accompanied by a widespread reduction over downwind continents. We implement the integrated process rate (IPR) analysis in CESM and find that meteorological O3 transport in response to SST changes is the key process causing surface O3 perturbations in most cases. During the boreal summer, basin-scale SST warming facilitates the vertical transport of O3 to the surface over upwind regions while significantly reducing the vertical transport over downwind continents. This process, as confirmed by tagged CO-like tracers, indicates a considerable suppression of intercontinental O3 transport due to increased tropospheric stability at lower midlatitudes induced by SST changes. Conversely, the responses of chemical O3 production to regional SST warming can exert positive effects on surface O3 levels over highly polluted continents, except South Asia, where intensified cloud loading in response to North Indian SST warming depresses both the surface air temperature and solar radiation, and thus photochemical O3 production. Our findings indicate a robust linkage between basin-scale SST
Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hirsch, A. L.; Wilhelm, M.; Davin, E. L.; Thiery, W.; Seneviratne, S. I.
2017-02-01
Limiting global warming to well below 2°C is an imminent challenge for humanity. However, even if this global target can be met, some regions are still likely to experience substantial warming relative to others. Using idealized global climate simulations, we examine the potential of land management options in affecting regional climate, with a focus on crop albedo enhancement and irrigation (climate-effective land management). The implementation is performed over all crop regions globally to provide an upper bound. We find that the implementation of both crop albedo enhancement and irrigation can reduce hot temperature extremes by more than 2°C in North America, Eurasia, and India over the 21st century relative to a scenario without management application. The efficacy of crop albedo enhancement scales with the magnitude, where a cooling response exceeding 0.5°C for hot temperature extremes was achieved with a large (i.e., ≥0.08) change in crop albedo. Regional differences were attributed to the surface energy balance response with temperature changes mostly explained by latent heat flux changes for irrigation and net shortwave radiation changes for crop albedo enhancement. However, limitations do exist, where we identify warming over the winter months when climate-effective land management is temporarily suspended. This was associated with persistent cloud cover that enhances longwave warming. It cannot be confirmed if the magnitude of this feedback is reproducible in other climate models. Our results overall demonstrate that regional warming of hot extremes in our climate model can be partially mitigated when using an idealized treatment of climate-effective land management.