Western US high June 2015 temperatures and their relation to global warming and soil moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Kew, Sarah F.; Hauser, Mathias; Guillod, Benoit P.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Whan, Kirien; Uhe, Peter; Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van

2018-04-01

The Western US states Washington (WA), Oregon (OR) and California (CA) experienced extremely high temperatures in June 2015. The temperature anomalies were so extreme that they cannot be explained with global warming alone. We investigate the hypothesis that soil moisture played an important role as well. We use a land surface model and a large ensemble from the weather@home modelling effort to investigate the coupling between soil moisture and temperature in a warming world. Both models show that May was anomalously dry, satisfying a prerequisite for the extreme heat wave, and they indicate that WA and OR are in a wet-to-dry transitional soil moisture regime. We use two different land surface-atmosphere coupling metrics to show that there was strong coupling between temperature, latent heat flux and the effect of soil moisture deficits on the energy balance in June 2015 in WA and OR. June temperature anomalies conditioned on wet/dry conditions show that both the mean and extreme temperatures become hotter for dry soils, especially in WA and OR. Fitting a Gaussian model to temperatures using soil moisture as a covariate shows that the June 2015 temperature values fit well in the extrapolated empirical temperature/drought lines. The high temperature anomalies in WA and OR are thus to be expected, given the dry soil moisture conditions and that those regions are in the transition from a wet to a dry regime. CA is already in the dry regime and therefore the necessity of taking soil moisture into account is of lower importance.

Caldera unrest detected with seawater temperature anomalies at Deception Island, Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berrocoso, M.; Prates, G.; Fernández-Ros, A.; Peci, L. M.; de Gil, A.; Rosado, B.; Páez, R.; Jigena, B.

2018-04-01

Increased thermal activity was detected to coincide with the onset of volcano inflation in the seawater-filled caldera at Deception Island. This thermal activity was manifested in pulses of high water temperature that coincided with ocean tide cycles. The seawater temperature anomalies were detected by a thermometric sensor attached to the tide gauge (bottom pressure sensor). This was installed where the seawater circulation and the locations of known thermal anomalies, fumaroles and thermal springs, together favor the detection of water warmed within the caldera. Detection of the increased thermal activity was also possible because sea ice, which covers the entire caldera during the austral winter months, insulates the water and thus reduces temperature exchange between seawater and atmosphere. In these conditions, the water temperature data has been shown to provide significant information about Deception volcano activity. The detected seawater temperature increase, also observed in soil temperature readings, suggests rapid and near-simultaneous increase in geothermal activity with onset of caldera inflation and an increased number of seismic events observed in the following austral summer.

Hemispheric Circulation Regimes Associated with Predominant Anomaly Patterns of Wintertime Temperature Distribution over the Far East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukougawa, H.; Mabuchi, M.

2012-04-01

Characteristics of extratropical planetary flow regimes in the Northern Hemisphere associated with prevailing spatial patterns of temperature anomaly distribution in the winter season (DJF) over the Far East are examined based on 2D phase space spanned by the leading two EOFs of the Far East low-frequency temperature variation by the use of ERA-40 reanalysis dataset from 1957/58 to 2001/02 winter and NOAA OLR dataset from 1979/80 to 2001/02 winter. The first EOF of 10-day low-pass filtered 850-hPa temperature anomaly in the winter season over the Far East (25˚N-50˚N, 120˚E-150˚E) represents a coherent temperature variation over the whole domain while the second EOF corresponds to a meridional dipole pattern with a node around 40˚N. These two leading EOFs explain 76% of the total temperature variance over the Far East. Regression analysis of 250-hPa height anomaly with respect to the corresponding PCs shows that EOF1 and EOF2 are related to the Eurasian (EU) and the West Pacific (WP) pattern, respectively. The PDF of 850-hPa low-frequency temperature anomaly is estimated by the kernel density estimation method of Kimoto and Ghil (1993) in 2D phase space spanned by the leading 2 PCs. Inhomogeneity of the observed PDF from the bivariate Gaussianity is evaluated by a nonparametric method, and we find the existence of two distinct regimes with significantly greater PDF than the Gaussianity: One regime (regime A) represents an atmospheric state with low temperature anomaly over the whole Far East region, especially over Western Japan. The other regime (regime B) corresponds to a state with a prevailing weak positive temperature anomaly over the Far East. Finally, a composite analysis of 250-hPa height anomaly associated with regime A based on the 2D phase space reveals its time evolution as follows: Blocking developing over the Alaska 15 days (day -15) before the mature phase of regime A has a retrograde phase velocity and resides over the Sea of Okhotsk. After day

The Response of a Branch of Puget Sound, Washington to the 2014 North Pacific Warm Anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mickett, J.; Newton, J.; Devol, A.; Krembs, C.; Ruef, W.

2016-02-01

The flow of the unprecedentedly-warm upper-ocean North Pacific "Blob" water into Puget Sound, Washington, caused local extreme water property anomalies that extended from the arrival of the water inshore in the fall of 2014 through 2015. Here we report on moored and seaplane observations from Hood Canal, a branch of Puget Sound, where temperature was more than 2σ above climatology for much of the year with maximum temperature anomalies at depth and at the surface +2.5 °C and +7 °C respectively. The low density of the oceanic warm "Blob" water resulted in weak deep water flushing in Hood Canal in the fall of 2014, which combined with a lack of wintertime flushing to result in anomalously-low dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations at depth. Late-summer 2015 DO values were the lowest in a decade of mooring observations and more than 2σ below climatology. The anomalously low density of the deep basin water allowed a very early onset of the annually-occurring, late-summer intrusion, which first entered Hood Canal at the end of July compared to the usual arrival in early to mid-September. In late August this intrusion conspired with an early fall storm to lift the very low DO deep water to surface at the south end of Hood Canal, causing a significant fish kill event.

Relative roles of differential SST warming, uniform SST warming and land surface warming in determining the Walker circulation changes under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lei; Li, Tim

2017-02-01

Most of CMIP5 models projected a weakened Walker circulation in tropical Pacific, but what causes such change is still an open question. By conducting idealized numerical simulations separating the effects of the spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming, extra land surface warming and differential SST warming, we demonstrate that the weakening of the Walker circulation is attributed to the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon and South America land effects. The effect of the uniform SST warming is through so-called "richest-get-richer" mechanism. In response to a uniform surface warming, the WNP monsoon is enhanced by competing moisture with other large-scale convective branches. The strengthened WNP monsoon further induces surface westerlies in the equatorial western-central Pacific, weakening the Walker circulation. The increase of the greenhouse gases leads to a larger land surface warming than ocean surface. As a result, a greater thermal contrast occurs between American Continent and equatorial Pacific. The so-induced zonal pressure gradient anomaly forces low-level westerly anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and weakens the Walker circulation. The differential SST warming also plays a role in driving low-level westerly anomalies over tropical Pacific. But such an effect involves a positive air-sea feedback that amplifies the weakening of both east-west SST gradient and Pacific trade winds.

ASTER Thermal Anomalies in Western Colorado

DOE Data Explorer

Richard E. Zehner

2013-01-01

This layer contains the areas identified as areas of anomalous surface temperature from ASTER satellite imagery. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o, and areas with temperature equal to 1o to 2o, were considered ASTER modeled very warm and warm surface exposures (thermal anomalies), respectively Note: 'o' is used in place of lowercase sigma in this description.

Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

PubMed

Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

2015-08-11

Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

Ecosystem Resilience to Drought and Temperature Anomalies in the Mekong River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Na-U-Dom, T.; García, M.; Mo, X.

2017-05-01

Climate change is leading to an increasing in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, which significantly affect ecosystems stability. In this study, ecological stability metrics in response to wet/dry events and warm/cold events on vegetation greenness were assessed using an auto-regressive model of NDVI in the Mekong River basin (around 759,000 km2) where large ecological and climatic gradients exist. Gridded temperature, and the Global Standard Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) and antecedent NDVI were used as model predictors. The forest in north Laos was more resilient to the temperate and wet/dry anomalies events than other regions in the basin. Drought reduced green biomass in north Laos, northeast Thailand and Myanmar, but in these tropical climate regions’ the vegetation biomass was also more responsive by higher temperatures. Vegetation in northeast Thailand, Cambodia and the Mekong delta were less sensitive to the temperature anomalies effect compared to other part of Mekong River basin. The map of resistance and resilience metrics can help to determine the most vulnerable regions to extreme events for policy makers.

A three-stage hybrid model for regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses of temperature anomalies in China from 1966 to 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Feifei; Yang, XiaoHua; Shen, Zhenyao

2018-06-01

Temperature anomalies have received increasing attention due to their potentially severe impacts on ecosystems, economy and human health. To facilitate objective regionalization and examine regional temperature anomalies, a three-stage hybrid model with stages of regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses was developed. Annual mean and extreme temperatures were analyzed using the daily data collected from 537 stations in China from 1966 to 2015, including the annual mean, minimum and maximum temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) as well as the extreme minimum and maximum temperatures (TNe and TXe). The results showed the following: (1) subregions with coherent temperature changes were identified using the rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis and K-means clustering algorithm. The numbers of subregions were 6, 7, 8, 9 and 8 for Tm, TNm, TXm, TNe and TXe, respectively. (2) Significant increases in temperature were observed in most regions of China from 1966 to 2015, although warming slowed down over the last decade. This warming primarily featured a remarkable increase in its minimum temperature. For Tm and TNm, 95% of the stations showed a significant upward trend at the 99% confidence level. TNe increased the fastest, at a rate of 0.56 °C/decade, whereas 21% of the stations in TXe showed a downward trend. (3) The mean temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) in the high-latitude regions increased more quickly than those in the low-latitude regions. The maximum temperature increased significantly at high elevations, whereas the minimum temperature increased greatly at middle-low elevations. The most pronounced warming occurred in eastern China in TNe and northwestern China in TXe, with mean elevations of 51 m and 2098 m, respectively. A cooling trend in TXe was observed at the northwestern end of China. The warming rate in TNe varied the most among the subregions (0.63 °C/decade).

Spatiotemporal Divergence of the Warming Hiatus over Land Based on Different Definitions of Mean Temperature

PubMed Central

Zhou, Chunlüe; Wang, Kaicun

2016-01-01

Existing studies of the recent warming hiatus over land are primarily based on the average of daily minimum and maximum temperatures (T2). This study compared regional warming rates of mean temperature based on T2 and T24 calculated from hourly observations available from 1998 to 2013. Both T2 and T24 show that the warming hiatus over land is apparent in the mid-latitudes of North America and Eurasia, especially in cold seasons, which is closely associated with the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) and cold air propagation by the Arctic-original northerly wind anomaly into mid-latitudes. However, the warming rates of T2 and T24 are significantly different at regional and seasonal scales because T2 only samples air temperature twice daily and cannot accurately reflect land-atmosphere and incoming radiation variations in the temperature diurnal cycle. The trend has a standard deviation of 0.43 °C/decade for T2 and 0.41 °C/decade for T24, and 0.38 °C/decade for their trend difference in 5° × 5° grids. The use of T2 amplifies the regional contrasts of the warming rate, i.e., the trend underestimation in the US and overestimation at high latitudes by T2. PMID:27531421

Disentangling Global Warming, Multidecadal Variability, and El Niño in Pacific Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wills, Robert C.; Schneider, Tapio; Wallace, John M.; Battisti, David S.; Hartmann, Dennis L.

2018-03-01

A key challenge in climate science is to separate observed temperature changes into components due to internal variability and responses to external forcing. Extended integrations of forced and unforced climate models are often used for this purpose. Here we demonstrate a novel method to separate modes of internal variability from global warming based on differences in time scale and spatial pattern, without relying on climate models. We identify uncorrelated components of Pacific sea surface temperature variability due to global warming, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results give statistical representations of PDO and ENSO that are consistent with their being separate processes, operating on different time scales, but are otherwise consistent with canonical definitions. We isolate the multidecadal variability of the PDO and find that it is confined to midlatitudes; tropical sea surface temperatures and their teleconnections mix in higher-frequency variability. This implies that midlatitude PDO anomalies are more persistent than previously thought.

Recent Global Warming As Depicted by AIRS, GISSTEMP, and MERRA-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susskind, J.; Iredell, L. F.; Lee, J. N.

2017-12-01

We observed anomalously warm global mean surface temperatures since 2015. The year 2016 represents the warmest annual mean surface skin and surface air temperatures in the AIRS observational period, September 2002 through August 2017. Additionally, AIRS monthly mean surface skin temperature, from January 2016 through September 2016, and November 2016, were the warmest observed for each month of the year. Continuing this trend, the AIRS global surface temperatures of 2017 February and April show the second greatest positive anomalies from average. This recent warming is particularly significant over the Arctic where the snow and sea ice melt is closely tied to the spring and summer surface temperatures. In this paper, we show the global distribution of surface temperature anomalies as observed by AIRS over the period September 2002 through August 2017 and compare them with those from the GISSTEMP and MERRA-2 surface temperatures. The spatial patterns of warm and cold anomalies for a given month show reasonably good agreement in all three data set. AIRS anomalies, which do not have the benefit of in-situ measurements, are in almost perfect agreement with those of MERRA-2, which does use in-situ surface measurements. GISSTEMP anomaly patterns for the most part look similar to those of AIRS and MERRA-2, but are more spread out spatially, and consequently are also weaker.

Annual temperature anomaly trends correlate with coral reef trajectory across the Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riegl, B. M.; Wieters, E.; Bruckner, A.; Purkis, S.

2013-05-01

The future survival of coral reefs depends on the envelope of critical climatic conditions determining the severity of impacts on the ecosystem. While coral health is strongly determined by extreme heat events, that lead to bleaching and often death, chronic "heat loading" may also disadvantage corals by making them more susceptible to, for example, diseases. On the other hand, it has been shown that coral living in hotter areas have higher bleaching thresholds and may be affected by less mortality at extreme events. This level at which heat anomalies lead to coral mortality varies widely across oceans, from ~31 deg C across the Caribbean to ~32 deg C in the Great Barrier Reef to 37.5 deg C in the Persian/Arabian Gulf. Thus, there clearly exists local adaptation and the extremes required to kill reefs strongly vary among regions. This could be be interpreted as suggesting that as long as bleaching temperatures are not reached, increased overall heat content expressed by a positive annual thermal anomaly, might actually foster coral resilience. Is there evidence for or against such an argument? Bleaching events have been occurring worldwide with variable recurrence and variable subsequent recovery. Despite demonstrated adaptation to higher-than-usual mean summer temperatures, reefs in the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea are on a declining trajectory. This coincides with consistent warming in the region. Mean annual anomalies of ocean temperature (since 1870) and atmospheric temperatures (since 1950) increase throughout the region. Since 1994 (Red Sea) and 1998 (southern Arabian Gulf) all mean annual anomalies have been positive and this period has coincided with repeated, severe bleaching events. In the Eastern Pacific (Galapagos and Easter Island), the trend of mean annual temperature anomalies has been declining and coral cover has been increasing. Thus, trends in coral cover and mean annual anomaly are negatively correlated in both regions. Despite strong impacts

Detecting primary precursors of January surface air temperature anomalies in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Guirong; Ren, Hong-Li; Chen, Haishan; You, Qinglong

2017-12-01

This study aims to detect the primary precursors and impact mechanisms for January surface temperature anomaly (JSTA) events in China against the background of global warming, by comparing the causes of two extreme JSTA events occurring in 2008 and 2011 with the common mechanisms inferred from all typical episodes during 1979-2008. The results show that these two extreme events exhibit atmospheric circulation patterns in the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia, with a positive anomaly center over the Ural Mountains and a negative one to the south of Lake Baikal (UMLB), which is a pattern quite similar to that for all the typical events. However, the Eurasian teleconnection patterns in the 2011 event, which are accompanied by a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, are different to those of the typical events and the 2008 event. We further find that a common anomalous signal appearing in early summer over the tropical Indian Ocean may be responsible for the following late-winter Eurasian teleconnections and the associated JSTA events in China. We show that sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the preceding summer over the western Indian Ocean (WIO) are intimately related to the UMLB-like circulation pattern in the following January. Positive WIOSSTAs in early summer tend to induce strong UMLB-like circulation anomalies in January, which may result in anomalously or extremely cold events in China, which can also be successfully reproduced in model experiments. Our results suggest that the WIOSSTAs may be a useful precursor for predicting JSTA events in China.

Spatial Correlations of Anomaly Time Series of AIRS Version-6 Land Surface Skin Temperatures with the Nino-4 Index

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Lee, Jae N.; Iredell, Lena

2013-01-01

The AIRS Science Team Version-6 data set is a valuable resource for meteorological studies. Quality Controlled earth's surface skin temperatures are produced on a 45 km x 45 km spatial scale under most cloud cover conditions. The same retrieval algorithm is used for all surface types under all conditions. This study used eleven years of AIRS monthly mean surface skin temperature and cloud cover products to show that land surface skin temperatures have decreased significantly in some areas and increased significantly in other areas over the period September 2002 through August 2013. These changes occurred primarily at 1:30 PM but not at 1:30 AM. Cooling land areas contained corresponding increases in cloud cover over this time period, with the reverse being true for warming land areas. The cloud cover anomaly patterns for a given month are affected significantly by El Nino/La Nina activity, and anomalies in cloud cover are a driving force behind anomalies in land surface skin temperature.

Causality of an extreme harmful algal bloom in Monterey Bay, California, during the 2014-2016 northeast Pacific warm anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryan, J. P.; Kudela, R. M.; Birch, J. M.; Blum, M.; Bowers, H. A.; Chavez, F. P.; Doucette, G. J.; Hayashi, K.; Marin, R.; Mikulski, C. M.; Pennington, J. T.; Scholin, C. A.; Smith, G. J.; Woods, A.; Zhang, Y.

2017-06-01

An ecologically and economically disruptive harmful algal bloom (HAB) affected much of the northeast Pacific margin in 2015, during a prolonged oceanic warm anomaly. Caused by diatoms of the genus Pseudo-nitzschia, this HAB produced the highest particulate concentrations of the biotoxin domoic acid (DA) ever recorded in Monterey Bay, California. Bloom inception followed strong upwelling during the spring transition, which introduced nutrients and eliminated the warm anomaly locally. Subsequently, moderate and intermittent upwelling created favorable conditions for growth and accumulation of HAB biomass, which was dominated by a highly toxigenic species, P. australis. High cellular DA concentrations were associated with available nitrogen for DA synthesis coincident with silicate exhaustion. This nutrient influence resulted from two factors: (1) disproportionate depletion of silicate in upwelling source waters during the warm anomaly, the most severe depletion observed in 24 years, and (2) silicate uptake by the dense diatom bloom.

Reduced North American terrestrial primary productivity linked to anomalous Arctic warming

DOE PAGES

Kim, Jin-Soo; Kug, Jong-Seong; Jeong, Su-Jong; ...

2017-07-10

Warming temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere have enhanced terrestrial productivity. Despite the warming trend, North America has experienced more frequent and more intense cold weather events during winters and springs. These events have been linked to anomalous Arctic warming since 1990, and may affect terrestrial processes. Here we analyse many observation data sets and numerical model simulations to evaluate links between Arctic temperatures and primary productivity in North America. We find that positive springtime temperature anomalies in the Arctic have led to negative anomalies in gross primary productivity over most of North America during the last three decades, which amountmore » to a net productivity decline of 0.31 PgC yr -1 across the continent. This decline is mainly explained by two factors: severe cold conditions in northern North America and lower precipitation in the South Central United States. In addition, United States crop-yield data reveal that during years experiencing anomalous warming in the Arctic, yields declined by approximately 1 to 4% on average, with individual states experiencing declines of up to 20%. We conclude that the strengthening of Arctic warming anomalies in the past decades has remotely reduced productivity over North America.« less

Reduced North American terrestrial primary productivity linked to anomalous Arctic warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Jin-Soo; Kug, Jong-Seong; Jeong, Su-Jong

Warming temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere have enhanced terrestrial productivity. Despite the warming trend, North America has experienced more frequent and more intense cold weather events during winters and springs. These events have been linked to anomalous Arctic warming since 1990, and may affect terrestrial processes. Here we analyse many observation data sets and numerical model simulations to evaluate links between Arctic temperatures and primary productivity in North America. We find that positive springtime temperature anomalies in the Arctic have led to negative anomalies in gross primary productivity over most of North America during the last three decades, which amountmore » to a net productivity decline of 0.31 PgC yr -1 across the continent. This decline is mainly explained by two factors: severe cold conditions in northern North America and lower precipitation in the South Central United States. In addition, United States crop-yield data reveal that during years experiencing anomalous warming in the Arctic, yields declined by approximately 1 to 4% on average, with individual states experiencing declines of up to 20%. We conclude that the strengthening of Arctic warming anomalies in the past decades has remotely reduced productivity over North America.« less

Global Surface Temperature Anomalies and Attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietrafesa, L. J.

2017-12-01

We study Non-Stationary, Non-Linear time series of global surface temperatures from 1850 to 2016, and via an empirical, mathematical methodology, we reveal the buried, internal modes of variability of planetary temperatures over the past 167 years, and find periods of cooling and warming, both in the ocean and the atmosphere over land, with multiple modes of variability; seasonal, annual, inter-annual, multi-year, decadal, multi-decadal, centennial and overall warming trends in the ocean, atmosphere and the combination therein. The oceanic rate of warming is less than two thirds of that of the atmosphere. While our findings on overall trends of fossil fuel burning and planetary temperatures are only visually correlative, by employing a mathematical methodology well known in ergonomics, this study causally links the upward rise in planetary surface temperature from the latter part of the 19th Century and into the 21st Century, to the contemporaneous upward rise in fossil fuel burning and suggests that if present fossil fuel burning is not curtailed there will be continued warming of the planet in the future.

Sea surface temperature anomalies driven by oceanic local forcing in the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silveira, Isabel Porto; Pezzi, Luciano Ponzi

2014-03-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly events in the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) were investigated through wavelet analysis and numerical modeling. Wavelet analysis was applied to recognize the main spectral signals of SST anomaly events in the BMC and in the Drake Passage as a first attempt to link middle and high latitudes. The numerical modeling approach was used to clarify the local oceanic dynamics that drive these anomalies. Wavelet analysis pointed to the 8-12-year band as the most energetic band representing remote forcing between high to middle latitudes. Other frequencies observed in the BMC wavelet analysis indicate that part of its variability could also be forced by low-latitude events, such as El Niño. Numerical experiments carried out for the years of 1964 and 1992 (cold and warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases) revealed two distinct behaviors that produced negative and positive sea surface temperature anomalies on the BMC region. The first behavior is caused by northward cold flow, Río de la Plata runoff, and upwelling processes. The second behavior is driven by a southward excursion of the Brazil Current (BC) front, alterations in Río de la Plata discharge rates, and most likely by air-sea interactions. Both episodes are characterized by uncoupled behavior between the surface and deeper layers.

Characteristics of Winter Surface Air Temperature Anomalies in Moscow in 1970-2016 under Conditions of Reduced Sea Ice Area in the Barents Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukurov, K. A.; Semenov, V. A.

2018-01-01

On the basis of observational data on daily mean surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents Sea (BS), the characteristics of strong positive and negative winter SAT anomalies in Moscow have been studied in comparison with BS SIC data obtained in 1949-2016. An analysis of surface backward trajectories of air-particle motions has revealed the most probable paths of both cold and warm air invasions into Moscow and located regions that mostly affect strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow. Atmospheric circulation anomalies that cause strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow have been revealed. Changes in the ways of both cold and warm air invasions have been found, as well as an increase in the frequency of blocking anticyclones in 2005-2016 when compared to 1970-1999. The results suggest that a winter SIC decrease in the BS in 2005-2016 affects strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow due to an increase in the frequency of occurrence of blocking anticyclones to the south of and over the BS.

Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

PubMed

Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

2011-04-01

Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

Intraseasonal sea surface warming in the western Indian Ocean by oceanic equatorial Rossby waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rydbeck, Adam V.; Jensen, Tommy G.; Nyadjro, Ebenezer S.

2017-05-01

A novel process is identified whereby equatorial Rossby (ER) waves maintain warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies against cooling by processes related to atmospheric convection in the western Indian Ocean. As downwelling ER waves enter the western Indian Ocean, SST anomalies of +0.15°C develop near 60°E. These SST anomalies are hypothesized to stimulate convective onset of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The upper ocean warming that manifests in response to downwelling ER waves is examined in a mixed layer heat budget using observational and reanalysis products, respectively. In the heat budget, horizontal advection is the leading contributor to warming, in part due to an equatorial westward jet of 80 cm s-1 associated with downwelling ER waves. When anomalous currents associated with ER waves are removed in the budget, the warm intraseasonal temperature anomaly in the western Indian Ocean is eliminated in observations and reduced by 55% in reanalysis.

Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Dinezio, Pedro N.; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

2017-06-01

In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015-16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes.

Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming.

PubMed

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

2017-06-06

In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015-16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes.

Does the recent warming hiatus exist over northern Asia for winter wind chill temperature?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Ying

2017-04-01

Wind chill temperature (WCT) describes the joint effect of wind velocity and air temperature on exposed body skin and could support policy makers in designing plans to reduce the risks of notably cold and windy weather. This study examined winter WCT over northern Asia during 1973-2013 by analyzing in situ station data. The winter WCT warming rate over the Tibetan Plateau slowed during 1999-2013 (-0.04 °C/decade) compared with that during 1973-1998 (0.67 °C/decade). The winter WCT warming hiatus has also been observed in the remainder of Northern Asia with trends of 1.11 °C/decade during 1973-1998 but -1.02 °C/decade during 1999-2013, except for the Far East of Russia (FE), where the winter WCT has continued to heat up during both the earlier period of 1973-1998 (0.54 °C/decade) and the recent period of 1999-2013 (0.75 °C/decade). The results indicate that the influence of temperature on winter WCT is greater than that of wind speed over northern Asia. Atmospheric circulation changes associated with air temperature and wind speed were analyzed to identify the causes for the warming hiatus of winter WCT over northern Asia. The distributions of sea level pressure and 500 hPa height anomalies during 1999-2013 transported cold air from the high latitudes to middle latitudes, resulting in low air temperature over Northern Asia except for the Far East of Russia. Over the Tibetan Plateau, the increase in wind speed offset the increase in air temperature during 1999-2013. For the Far East, the southerly wind from the Western Pacific drove the temperature up during the 1999-2013 period via warm advection.

An Updated Global Grid Point Surface Air Temperature Anomaly Data Set: 1851-1990 (revised 1991) (NDP-020)

DOE Data Explorer

Jones, P. D. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Raper, S. C.B. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Cherry, B. S.G. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Goodess, C. M. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Wigley, T. M. L. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Santer, B. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Kelly, P. M. [University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Bradley, R. S. [University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts (USA); Diaz, H. F. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Environmental Research Laboratories, Boulder, CO (United States).

1991-01-01

This NDP presents land-based monthly surface-air-temperature anomalies (departures from a 1951-1970 reference period mean) on a 5° latitude by 10° longitude global grid. Monthly surface-air-temperature anomalies (departures from a 1957-1975 reference period mean) for the Antarctic (grid points from 65°S to 85°S) are presented in a similar way as a separate data set. The data were derived primarily from the World Weather Records and from the archives of the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. This long-term record of temperature anomalies may be used in studies addressing possible greenhouse-gas-induced climate changes. To date, the data have been employed in producing regional, hemispheric, and global time series for determining whether recent (i.e., post-1900) warming trends have taken place. The present updated version of this data set is identical to the earlier version for all records from 1851-1978 except for the addition of the Antarctic surface-air-temperature anomalies beginning in 1957. Beginning with the 1979 data, this package differs from the earlier version in several ways. Erroneous data for some sites have been corrected after a review of the actual station temperature data, and inconsistencies in the representation of missing values have been removed. For some grid locations, data have been added from stations that had not contributed to the original set. Data from satellites have also been used to correct station records where large discrepancies were evident. The present package also extends the record by adding monthly surface-air-temperature anomalies for the Northern (grid points from 85°N to 0°) and Southern (grid points from 5°S to 60°S) Hemispheres for 1985-1990. In addition, this updated package presents the monthly-mean-temperature records for the individual stations that were used to produce the set of gridded anomalies. The periods of record vary by station. Northern Hemisphere data have been corrected for inhomogeneities

Warming and Cooling: The Medieval Climate Anomaly in Africa and Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lüning, Sebastian; Gałka, Mariusz; Vahrenholt, Fritz

2017-11-01

The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is a well-recognized climate perturbation in many parts of the world, with a core period of 1000-1200 Common Era. Here we present a palaeotemperature synthesis for the MCA in Africa and Arabia, based on 44 published localities. The data sets have been thoroughly correlated and the MCA trends palaeoclimatologically mapped. The vast majority of available Afro-Arabian onshore sites suggest a warm MCA, with the exception of the southern Levant where the MCA appears to have been cold. MCA cooling has also been documented in many segments of the circum-Africa-Arabian upwelling systems, as a result of changes in the wind systems which were leading to an intensification of cold water upwelling. Offshore cores from outside upwelling systems mostly show warm MCA conditions. The most likely key drivers of the observed medieval climate change are solar forcing and ocean cycles. Conspicuous cold spikes during the earliest and latest MCA may help to discriminate between solar (Oort Minimum) and ocean cycle (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO) influence. Compared to its large share of nearly one quarter of the world's landmass, data from Africa and Arabia are significantly underrepresented in global temperature reconstructions of the past 2,000 years. Onshore data are still absent for most regions in Africa and Arabia, except for regional data clusters in Morocco, South Africa, the East African Rift, and the Levant coast. In order to reconstruct land palaeotemperatures more robustly over Africa and Arabia, a systematic research program is needed.

The Recent Atlantic Cold Anomaly: Causes, Consequences, and Related Phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Josey, Simon A.; Hirschi, Joel J.-M.; Sinha, Bablu; Duchez, Aurélie; Grist, Jeremy P.; Marsh, Robert

2018-01-01

Cold ocean temperature anomalies have been observed in the mid- to high-latitude North Atlantic on interannual to centennial timescales. Most notably, a large region of persistently low surface temperatures accompanied by a sharp reduction in ocean heat content was evident in the subpolar gyre from the winter of 2013-2014 to 2016, and the presence of this feature at a time of pervasive warming elsewhere has stimulated considerable debate. Here, we review the role of air-sea interaction and ocean processes in generating this cold anomaly and place it in a longer-term context. We also discuss the potential impacts of surface temperature anomalies for the atmosphere, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and European heat waves; contrast the behavior of the Atlantic with the extreme warm surface event that occurred in the North Pacific over a similar timescale; and consider the possibility that these events represent a response to a change in atmospheric planetary wave forcing.

Central and rear-edge populations can be equally vulnerable to warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Scott; Wernberg, Thomas; Arackal Joy, Bijo; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Campbell, Alexandra H.

2015-12-01

Rear (warm) edge populations are often considered more susceptible to warming than central (cool) populations because of the warmer ambient temperatures they experience, but this overlooks the potential for local variation in thermal tolerances. Here we provide conceptual models illustrating how sensitivity to warming is affected throughout a species' geographical range for locally adapted and non-adapted populations. We test these models for a range-contracting seaweed using observations from a marine heatwave and a 12-month experiment, translocating seaweeds among central, present and historic range edge locations. Growth, reproductive development and survivorship display different temperature thresholds among central and rear-edge populations, but share a 2.5 °C anomaly threshold. Range contraction, therefore, reflects variation in local anomalies rather than differences in absolute temperatures. This demonstrates that warming sensitivity can be similar throughout a species geographical range and highlights the importance of incorporating local adaptation and acclimatization into climate change vulnerability assessments.

Equilibrium Atmospheric Response to North Atlantic SST Anomalies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushnir, Yochanan; Held, Isaac M.

1996-06-01

The equilibrium general circulation model (GCM) response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western North Atlantic region is studied. A coarse resolution GCM, with realistic lower boundary conditions including topography and climatological SST distribution, is integrated in perpetual January and perpetual October modes, distinguished from one another by the strength of the midlatitude westerlies. An SST anomaly with a maximum of 4°C is added to the climatological SST distribution of the model with both positive and negative polarity. These anomaly runs are compared to one another, and to a control integration, to determine the atmospheric response. In all cases warming (cooling) of the midlatitude ocean surface yields a warming (cooling) of the atmosphere over and to the east of the SST anomaly center. The atmospheric temperature change is largest near the surface and decreases upward. Consistent with this simple thermal response, the geopotential height field displays a baroclinic response with a shallow anomalous low somewhat downstream from the warm SST anomaly. The equivalent barotropic, downstream response is weak and not robust. To help interpret the results, the realistic GCM integrations are compared with parallel idealized model runs. The idealized model has full physics and a similar horizontal and vertical resolution, but an all-ocean surface with a single, permanent zonal asymmetry. The idealized and realistic versions of the GCM display compatible response patterns that are qualitatively consistent with stationary, linear, quasigeostrophic theory. However, the idealized model response is stronger and more coherent. The differences between the two model response patterns can be reconciled based on the size of the anomaly, the model treatment of cloud-radiation interaction, and the static stability of the model atmosphere in the vicinity of the SST anomaly. Model results are contrasted with other GCM studies and observations.

Sources of global warming in upper ocean temperature during El Niño

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Warren B.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Mike; Auad, Guillermo

2001-01-01

Global average sea surface temperature (SST) from 40°S to 60°N fluctuates ±0.3°C on interannual period scales, with global warming (cooling) during El Niño (La Niña). About 90% of the global warming during El Niño occurs in the tropical global ocean from 20°S to 20°N, half because of large SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with El Niño and the other half because of warm SST anomalies occurring over ∼80% of the tropical global ocean. From examination of National Centers for Environmental Prediction [Kalnay et al., 1996] and Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set [Woodruff et al., 1993] reanalyses, tropical global warming during El Niño is associated with higher troposphere moisture content and cloud cover, with reduced trade wind intensity occurring during the onset phase of El Niño. During this onset phase the tropical global average diabatic heat storage tendency in the layer above the main pycnocline is 1–3 W m−2above normal. Its principal source is a reduction in the poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropical ocean of 2–5 W m−2. Subsequently, peak tropical global warming during El Niño is dissipated by an increase in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere of 2–5 W m−2, with reduced shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes in response to increased cloud cover tending to cancel each other. In the extratropical global ocean the reduction in poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropics during the onset of El Niño tends to be balanced by reduction in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere. Thus global warming and cooling during Earth's internal mode of interannual climate variability arise from fluctuations in the global hydrological balance, not the global radiation balance. Since it occurs in the absence of extraterrestrial and anthropogenic forcing, global warming on decadal, interdecadal, and centennial period scales may also occur in association with Earth's internal modes of climate variability on those scales.

Unabated global surface temperature warming: evaluating the evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karl, T. R.; Arguez, A.

2015-12-01

New insights related to time-dependent bias corrections in global surface temperatures have led to higher rates of warming over the past few decades than previously reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014). Record high global temperatures in the past few years have also contributed to larger trends. The combination of these factors and new analyses of the rate of temperature change show unabated global warming since at least the mid-Twentieth Century. New time-dependent bias corrections account for: (1) differences in temperatures measured from ships and drifting buoys; (2) improved corrections to ship measured temperatures; and (3) the larger rates of warming in polar regions (particularly the Arctic). Since 1951, the period over which IPCC (2014) attributes over half of the observed global warming to human causes, it is shown that there has been a remarkably robust and sustained warming, punctuated with inter-annual and decadal variability. This finding is confirmed through simple trend analysis and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Trend analysis however, especially for decadal trends, is sensitive to selection bias of beginning and ending dates. EMD has no selection bias. Additionally, it can highlight both short- and long-term processes affecting the global temperature times series since it addresses both non-linear and non-stationary processes. For the new NOAA global temperature data set, our analyses do not support the notion of a hiatus or slowing of long-term global warming. However, sub-decadal periods of little (or no warming) and rapid warming can also be found, clearly showing the impact of inter-annual and decadal variability that previously has been attributed to both natural and human-induced non-greenhouse forcings.

Precision and Radiosonde Validation of Satellite Gridpoint Temperature Anomalies. Part II: A Tropospheric Retrieval and Trends during 1979-90.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spencer, Roy W.; Christy, John R.

1992-08-01

TIROS-N satellite Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) channel 2 data from different view angles across the MSU man swath are combined to remove the influence of the lower stratosphere and much of the upper troposphere on the measured brightness temperatures. The retrieval provides a sharper averaging kernel than the raw channel 2 weighting function, with a peak lowered from 50 kPa to 70 kPa and with only slightly more surface influence than raw channel 2. Monthly 2.5° gridpoint anomalies of this tropospheric retrieval compared between simultaneously operating satellites indicate close agreement, 0.15°C in the tropics to around 0.30°C over much of the higher latitudes. The agreement is not as close as with raw channel 2 anomalies because synoptic-scale temperature gradient information across the 2000-km swath of the MSU is lost in the retrieval procedure and because the retrieval involves the magnification of a small difference between two large numbers. Single gridpoint monthly anomaly correlations between the satellite measurements and the radiosonde calculations range from around 0.95 at high latitudes to below 0.8 in the tropical west Pacific, with standard errors of estimate of 0.16°C at Guam to around 0.50°C at high-latitude continental stations. Calculation of radiosonde temperature with a static weighting function instead of the radiative transfer equation degrades the standard errors by an average of less than 0.04°C. Of various standard tropospheric layers, the channel 2 retrieval anomalies correlate best with radiosonde 100-50- or 100-40-kPa-thickness anomalies. A comparison between global and hemispheric anomalies computed for raw channel 2 data versus the tropospheric retrieval show a correction in the 1979-90 time series for the volcano-induced stratospheric warming of 1982-83, which was independently observed by MSU channel 4. This correction leads to a slightly greater tropospheric warming trend in the 12-year time series (1979-90) for the

Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming

PubMed Central

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N.; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

2017-01-01

In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015–16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes. PMID:28585927

Potential causes of differences between ground and surface air temperature warming across different ecozones in Alberta, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majorowicz, Jacek A.; Skinner, Walter R.

1997-10-01

Analysis and modelling of temperature anomalies from 25 selected deep wells in Alberta show that the differences between GST (ground surface temperature) warming for the northern Boreal Forest ecozone and the combined Prairie Grassland ecozone and Aspen Parkland transition region to the south occur during the latter half of this century. This corresponds with recent changes in surface albedo resulting from permanent land development in the northern areas and also to increases in natural forest fires in the past 20 years. Differences between GST and SAT (surface air temperature) warming are much higher in the Boreal Forest ecozone than in the Prairie Grassland ecozone and Aspen Parkland transition region. Various hypotheses which could account for the existing differences between the GST and SAT warming in the different ecozones of Alberta, and western Canada in general, are tested. Analysis of existing data on soil temperature, hydrological piezometric surfaces, snowfall and moisture patterns, and land clearing and forest fires, indicate that large areas of Alberta, characterised by anomalous GST warming, have experienced widespread changes to the surface landscape in this century. It is postulated that this has resulted in a lower surface albedo with a subsequent increase in the absorption of solar energy. Heat flow modelling shows that, after climatic SAT warming, permanent clearing of the land is the most effective and likely cause of the observed changes in the GST warming. The greater GST warming in the Boreal Forest ecozone in the latter half of this century is related to landscape change due to land development and increasing forest fire activity. It appears to account for a portion of the observed SAT warming in this region through a positive feedback loop with the overlying air. The anthropogenic effect on regional climatic warming through 20th century land clearing and landscape alteration requires further study. In future, more accurate quantification of

Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationships Between Anomalies of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover, and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel

2008-01-01

AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiles; atmospheric humidity profiles, percent cloud cover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Near real time products, stating with September 2002, have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. Results in this paper included products through April 2008. The time period studied is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear Sky and All Sky OLR The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, are shown below, with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. The ability to match this data represents a good test of a model's response to El Nino.

Convection anomalies associated with warm eddy at the coastal area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, R.; Wang, D.

2017-12-01

A possible correlation between a warm eddy and thunderstorms and convective precipitations are investigated at the coastal area in the northwestern South China Sea. Compared to the climatological mean in August from 2006 to 2013, an extreme enhancement of thunderstorm activities and precipitation rate are identified at the southern offshore area of Hainan island in August 2010 when a strong and long-live warm eddy was observed near the coastline at the same time. The 3 hourly satellite data (TRMM) indicate that the nocturnal convections is strong offshore and that could be responsible for the extreme positive anomalies of thunderstorms and rainfall in August 2010. The TRMM data also show a small reduction of thunderstorm activities and rainfall on the island in the afternoon. Meanwhile, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was applied to simulate the change of rainfall in August 2010. The WRF simulation of rainfall rate is comparable with the observation results while there is some difference in the spatial distribution. The WRF simulation successfully captured the strong offshore rainfall and the diurnal variation of rainfall in August 2010. The WRF simulation indicated that the different convergence induced by sea/land breeze could be one essential reason for the adjustment of thunderstorms and rainfall in 2010. The substantial connection between sea/land breeze and upper layer heat content modified by the warm eddy is still on ongoing and will be reported in the future work.

Effective Tolman temperature induced by trace anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eune, Myungseok; Gim, Yongwan; Kim, Wontae

2017-04-01

Despite the finiteness of stress tensor for a scalar field on the four-dimensional Schwarzschild black hole in the Israel-Hartle-Hawking vacuum, the Tolman temperature in thermal equilibrium is certainly divergent on the horizon due to the infinite blue-shift of the Hawking temperature. The origin of this conflict is due to the fact that the conventional Tolman temperature was based on the assumption of a traceless stress tensor, which is, however, incompatible with the presence of the trace anomaly responsible for the Hawking radiation. Here, we present an effective Tolman temperature which is compatible with the presence of the trace anomaly by using the modified Stefan-Boltzmann law. Eventually, the effective Tolman temperature turns out to be finite everywhere outside the horizon, and so an infinite blue-shift of the Hawking temperature at the event horizon does not appear any more. In particular, it is vanishing on the horizon, so that the equivalence principle is exactly recovered at the horizon.

The Tropical Western Hemisphere Warm Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chunzai; Enfield, David B.

The Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) of water warmer than 28.5°C extends from the eastern North Pacific to the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, and at its peak, overlaps with the tropical North Atlantic. It has a large seasonal cycle and its interannual fluctuations of area and intensity are significant. Surface heat fluxes warm the WHWP through the boreal spring to an annual maximum of SST and areal extent in the late summer/early fall, associated with eastern North Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activities and rainfall from northern South America to the southern tier of the United States. SST and area anomalies occur at high temperatures where small changes can have a large impact on tropical convection. Observations suggest that a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback operating through longwave radiation and associated cloudiness is responsible for the WHWP SST anomalies. Associated with an increase in SST anomalies is a decrease in atmospheric sea level pressure anomalies and an anomalous increase in atmospheric convection and cloudiness. The increase in convective activity and cloudiness results in less longwave radiation loss from the surface, which then reinforces SST anomalies.

Seabird Community Responses in the Northern California Current to the 2014-2015 NE Pacific Warm Anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gladics, A.; Suryan, R. M.

2016-02-01

Previous warm temperature anomalies in the NE Pacific, including the 1997-1998 El Niño, had profound impacts on seabird communities in the northern California Current. Both physical forcing and biotic interactions impact seabirds from top-down effects of seabird predators to interactions between seabirds and their prey. We report on changes in diving seabird (common murre, Uria aalge, and pelagic and Brandt's cormorants, Phalacrocorax spp.) breeding population sizes, reproductive success, phenology, and diets at breeding colonies (1998-2015) and at-sea seabird distribution and abundance (2013-2015) along the Oregon coast. Breeding seabird responses varied by species and breeding site. In 2014, reproductive success was mostly consistent with recent prior years for all species. In 2015, however, common murres and pelagic cormorants suffered colony-wide reproductive failures, while Brandt's cormorants had the highest breeding success during our 8-yr time series. Breeding phenology in cormorants was delayed by 14 days in 2015 and the number of breeding pairs reduced compared to 2014. At-sea surveys revealed greater species diversity in 2015 compared to previous years, with sub-tropical and unusual migrant species observed in greater numbers. Overall, seabirds off Oregon appeared to suffer greater impacts from the 2014-2015 Pacific Ocean Anomalies during the 2015 breeding season.

Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming.

PubMed

Carey, Joanna C; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H; Kroeger, Kevin D; Crowther, Thomas W; Burton, Andrew J; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D; Heskel, Mary A; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; Collins, Scott L; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C; Enquist, Brian J; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M; Peñuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward; Reinmann, Andrew B; Reynolds, Lorien L; Schmidt, Inger K; Shaver, Gaius R; Strong, Aaron L; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert

2016-11-29

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming.

Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carey, Joanna C.; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H.; Kroeger, Kevin D.; Crowther, Thomas W.; Burton, Andrew J.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D.; Heskel, Mary A.; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B.; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B.; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D.; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; Collins, Scott L.; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C.; Enquist, Brian J.; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R.; Steenberg Larsen, Klaus; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M.; Penuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward B.; Reinmann, Andrew B.; Reynolds, Lorien L.; Schmidt, Inger K.; Shaver, Gaius R.; Strong, Aaron L.; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert

2016-01-01

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming.

Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming

PubMed Central

Carey, Joanna C.; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H.; Kroeger, Kevin D.; Crowther, Thomas W.; Burton, Andrew J.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D.; Heskel, Mary A.; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B.; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B.; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D.; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C.; Enquist, Brian J.; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R.; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M.; Peñuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward; Reinmann, Andrew B.; Reynolds, Lorien L.; Schmidt, Inger K.; Shaver, Gaius R.; Strong, Aaron L.; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert

2016-01-01

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming. PMID:27849609

Temperature adaptation of bacterial communities in experimentally warmed forest soils.

PubMed

Rousk, Johannes; Frey, Serita D; Bååth, Erland

2012-10-01

A detailed understanding of the influence of temperature on soil microbial activity is critical to predict future atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and feedbacks to anthropogenic warming. We investigated soils exposed to 3-4 years of continuous 5 °C-warming in a field experiment in a temperate forest. We found that an index for the temperature adaptation of the microbial community, T min for bacterial growth, increased by 0.19 °C per 1 °C rise in temperature, showing a community shift towards one adapted to higher temperature with a higher temperature sensitivity (Q 10(5-15 °C) increased by 0.08 units per 1 °C). Using continuously measured temperature data from the field experiment we modelled in situ bacterial growth. Assuming that warming did not affect resource availability, bacterial growth was modelled to become 60% higher in warmed compared to the control plots, with the effect of temperature adaptation of the community only having a small effect on overall bacterial growth (<5%). However, 3 years of warming decreased bacterial growth, most likely due to substrate depletion because of the initially higher growth in warmed plots. When this was factored in, the result was similar rates of modelled in situ bacterial growth in warmed and control plots after 3 years, despite the temperature difference. We conclude that although temperature adaptation for bacterial growth to higher temperatures was detectable, its influence on annual bacterial growth was minor, and overshadowed by the direct temperature effect on growth rates. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Contribution of Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies to the Ongoing California Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, L.; Apps, D.; Arcand, S. E.

2015-12-01

The ongoing multiyear drought over California is a major concern for the residents of the golden state as it brings water restrictions in preparing for water shortages and wild fires due to dry and hot conditions. Both positive temperature and negative precipitation anomalies can contribute to drought developments, but how important are these anomalies for the ongoing California drought? Using the VIC hydrological model, this study investigated the relative contribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies to the ongoing 2011-2015 drought in comparison with another multiyear drought between 1987 and 1992 over the same region. By swapping the observed temperature and precipitation anomalies between two drought events, the study was able to show how temperature and precipitation anomalies and their spatial variability affect other elements of the hydrological cycle including evapotranspiration, soil moisture and streamflow, thus the severity of the drought. The comparison between these two events helps to reveal the unique characteristics of the current drought and provides useful insights for drought prediction and mitigation.

Temperature-induced water stress in high-latitude forests in response to natural and anthropogenic warming.

PubMed

Trahan, Matthew W; Schubert, Brian A

2016-02-01

The Arctic is particularly sensitive to climate change, but the independent effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration (pCO2 ) and temperature on high-latitude forests are poorly understood. Here, we present a new, annually resolved record of stable carbon isotope (δ(13) C) data determined from Larix cajanderi tree cores collected from far northeastern Siberia in order to investigate the physiological response of these trees to regional warming. The tree-ring record, which extends from 1912 through 1961 (50 years), targets early twentieth-century warming (ETCW), a natural warming event in the 1920s to 1940s that was limited to Northern hemisphere high latitudes. Our data show that net carbon isotope fractionation (Δ(13) C), decreased by 1.7‰ across the ETCW, which is consistent with increased water stress in response to climate warming and dryer soils. To investigate whether this signal is present across the northern boreal forest, we compiled published carbon isotope data from 14 high-latitude sites within Europe, Asia, and North America. The resulting dataset covered the entire twentieth century and spanned both natural ETCW and anthropogenic Late Twentieth-Century Warming (~0.7 °C per decade). After correcting for a ~1‰ increase in Δ(13) C in response to twentieth century pCO2 rise, a significant negative relationship (r = -0.53, P < 0.0001) between the average, annual Δ(13) C values and regional annual temperature anomalies is observed, suggesting a strong control of temperature on the Δ(13) C value of trees growing at high latitudes. We calculate a 17% increase in intrinsic water-use efficiency within these forests across the twentieth century, of which approximately half is attributed to a decrease in stomatal conductance in order to conserve water in response to drying conditions, with the other half being attributed to increasing pCO2 . We conclude that annual tree-ring records from northern high-latitude forests record the effects of

Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura; Li, Chao; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Marotzke, Jochem

2018-06-01

We use the 100-member Grand Ensemble with the climate model MPI-ESM to evaluate the controllability of mean and extreme European summer temperatures with the global mean temperature targets in the Paris Agreement. We find that European summer temperatures at 2 °C of global warming are on average 1 °C higher than at 1.5 °C of global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels. In a 2 °C warmer world, one out of every two European summer months would be warmer than ever observed in our current climate. Daily maximum temperature anomalies for extreme events with return periods of up to 500 years reach return levels of 7 °C at 2 °C of global warming and 5.5 °C at 1.5 °C of global warming. The largest differences in return levels for shorter return periods of 20 years are over southern Europe, where we find the highest mean temperature increase. In contrast, for events with return periods of over 100 years these differences are largest over central Europe, where we find the largest changes in temperature variability. However, due to the large effect of internal variability, only four out of every ten summer months in a 2 °C warmer world present mean temperatures that could be distinguishable from those in a 1.5 °C world. The distinguishability between the two climates is largest over southern Europe, while decreasing to around 10% distinguishable months over eastern Europe. Furthermore, we find that 10% of the most extreme and severe summer maximum temperatures in a 2 °C world could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.

Impacts of the IOD-associated temperature and salinity anomalies on the intermittent equatorial undercurrent anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Junde; Liang, Chujin; Tang, Youmin; Liu, Xiaohui; Lian, Tao; Shen, Zheqi; Li, Xiaojing

2017-11-01

The study of Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) has attracted a broad attention in recent years due to its strong response and feedback to the Indian Ocean Dipole. In this paper, we first produce a high-quality simulation of three-dimensional temperature, salinity and zonal current simulation from 1982 to 2014, using a high-resolution ocean general circulation model. On this basis, with two sensitivity experiments, we investigate the role of temperature and salinity anomalies in driving and enhancing the EUC during the positive IOD events by examining the variation of the EUC seasonal cycle and diagnosing the zonal momentum budget along the equatorial Indian Ocean. Our results show that during January-March, the EUC can appear along the entire equatorial Indian Ocean in all years, but during August-November, the EUC can appear and reach the eastern Indian Ocean only during the positive IOD events. The zonal momentum budget analysis indicates that the pressure gradient force contributes most to the variation of the eastward acceleration of zonal currents in the subsurface. During the positive IOD events, strong negative subsurface temperature anomalies exist in the eastern Indian Ocean, with negative surface salinity anomalies in the central and eastern Indian Ocean, resulting in a large pressure gradient force to drive EUC during the August-November. Further, the results of two sensitivity experiments indicate that the temperature anomalies significantly impact the pressure gradient force, playing a leading role in driving the EUC, while the surface salinity anomalies can secondarily help to intensify the eastward EUC through increasing the zonal density gradient in the eastern Indian Ocean and impacting the vertical momentum advection in the subsurface.

Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationships between Anomalies and Trends of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover, and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel

2008-01-01

AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU by the AIRS Science Team include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiles; atmospheric humidity profiles, fractional cloud cover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Products covering the period September 2002 through the present have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we will show results covering the time period September 2006 - November 2008. This time period is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extratropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear sky and All Sky OLR. The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, will be shown, with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. Results will also be shown to validate the anomalies and trends of temperature profiles and OLR as determined from analysis of AIRS/AMSU data. Global and regional trends during the 6 1/3 year period are not necessarily indicative of what has happened in the past, or what may happen in the future. Nevertheless, the inter-relationships of spatial and temporal anomalies of atmospheric geophysical parameters with those of surface skin temperature are indicative of climate processes, and can be used to test the performance of climate models when driven by changes in surface temperatures.

Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationship between Anomalies and Trends of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula

2009-01-01

AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU by the AIRS Science Team include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiled; atmospheric humidity profiles, fractional cloud clover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Products covering the period September 2002 through the present have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we will show results covering the time period September 2006 - November 2008. This time period is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extra-tropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear Sky and All Sky OLR. The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, will be shown with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. Results will also be shown to evaluate the anomalies and trends of temperature profiles and OLR as determined from analysis of AIRS/AMSU data. Global and regional trends during the 6 1/3 year time period are not necessarily indicative of what has happened in the past, or what may happen in the future. Nevertheless, the inter-relationships of spatial and temporal anomalies of atmospheric geophysical parameters with those of surface skin temperature are indicative of climate processes, and can be used to test the performance of climate models when driven by changes in surface temperatures.

Temperature Control of Hypertensive Rats during Moderate Exercise in Warm Environment.

PubMed

Campos, Helton O; Leite, Laura H R; Drummond, Lucas R; Cunha, Daise N Q; Coimbra, Cândido C; Natali, Antônio J; Prímola-Gomes, Thales N

2014-09-01

The control of body temperature in Spontaneously Hypertensive Rat (SHR) subjected to exercise in warm environment was investigated. Male SHR and Wistar rats were submitted to moderate exercise in temperate (25°C) and warm (32°C) environments while body and tail skin temperatures, as well as oxygen consumption, were registered. Total time of exercise, workload performed, mechanical efficiency and heat storage were determined. SHR had increased heat production and body temperature at the end of exercise, reduced mechanical efficiency and increased heat storage (p < 0.05). Furthermore, these rats also showed a more intense and faster increase in body temperature during moderate exercise in the warm environment (p < 0.05). The lower mechanical efficiency seen in SHR was closely correlated with their higher body temperature at the point of fatigue in warm environment (p < 0.05). Our results indicate that SHR exhibit significant differences in body temperature control during moderate exercise in warm environment characterized by increased heat production and heat storage during moderate exercise in warm environment. The combination of these responses result in aggravated hyperthermia linked with lower mechanical efficiency. Key PointsThe practice of physical exercise in warm environment has gained importance in recent decades mainly because of the progressive increases in environmental temperature;To the best of our knowledge, these is the first study to analyze body temperature control of SHR during moderate exercise in warm environment;SHR showed increased heat production and heat storage that resulted in higher body temperature at the end of exercise;SHR showed reduced mechanical efficiency;These results demonstrate that when exercising in a warm environment the hypertensive rat exhibit differences in temperature control.

Effects of Ambient Temperature and Forced-air Warming on Intraoperative Core Temperature: A Factorial Randomized Trial.

PubMed

Pei, Lijian; Huang, Yuguang; Xu, Yiyao; Zheng, Yongchang; Sang, Xinting; Zhou, Xiaoyun; Li, Shanqing; Mao, Guangmei; Mascha, Edward J; Sessler, Daniel I

2018-05-01

The effect of ambient temperature, with and without active warming, on intraoperative core temperature remains poorly characterized. The authors determined the effect of ambient temperature on core temperature changes with and without forced-air warming. In this unblinded three-by-two factorial trial, 292 adults were randomized to ambient temperatures 19°, 21°, or 23°C, and to passive insulation or forced-air warming. The primary outcome was core temperature change between 1 and 3 h after induction. Linear mixed-effects models assessed the effects of ambient temperature, warming method, and their interaction. A 1°C increase in ambient temperature attenuated the negative slope of core temperature change 1 to 3 h after anesthesia induction by 0.03 (98.3% CI, 0.01 to 0.06) °Ccore/(h°Cambient) (P < 0.001), for patients who received passive insulation, but not for those warmed with forced-air (-0.01 [98.3% CI, -0.03 to 0.01] °Ccore/[h°Cambient]; P = 0.40). Final core temperature at the end of surgery increased 0.13°C (98.3% CI, 0.07 to 0.20; P < 0.01) per degree increase in ambient temperature with passive insulation, but was unaffected by ambient temperature during forced-air warming (0.02 [98.3% CI, -0.04 to 0.09] °Ccore/°Cambient; P = 0.40). After an average of 3.4 h of surgery, core temperature was 36.3° ± 0.5°C in each of the forced-air groups, and ranged from 35.6° to 36.1°C in passively insulated patients. Ambient intraoperative temperature has a negligible effect on core temperature when patients are warmed with forced air. The effect is larger when patients are passively insulated, but the magnitude remains small. Ambient temperature can thus be set to comfortable levels for staff in patients who are actively warmed.

Amazon Basin climate under global warming: the role of the sea surface temperature.

PubMed

Harris, Phil P; Huntingford, Chris; Cox, Peter M

2008-05-27

The Hadley Centre coupled climate-carbon cycle model (HadCM3LC) predicts loss of the Amazon rainforest in response to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the atmospheric component of HadCM3LC is used to assess the role of simulated changes in mid-twenty-first century sea surface temperature (SST) in Amazon Basin climate change. When the full HadCM3LC SST anomalies (SSTAs) are used, the atmosphere model reproduces the Amazon Basin climate change exhibited by HadCM3LC, including much of the reduction in Amazon Basin rainfall. This rainfall change is shown to be the combined effect of SSTAs in both the tropical Atlantic and the Pacific, with roughly equal contributions from each basin. The greatest rainfall reduction occurs from May to October, outside of the mature South American monsoon (SAM) season. This dry season response is the combined effect of a more rapid warming of the tropical North Atlantic relative to the south, and warm SSTAs in the tropical east Pacific. Conversely, a weak enhancement of mature SAM season rainfall in response to Atlantic SST change is suppressed by the atmospheric response to Pacific SST. This net wet season response is sufficient to prevent dry season soil moisture deficits from being recharged through the SAM season, leading to a perennial soil moisture reduction and an associated 30% reduction in annual Amazon Basin net primary productivity (NPP). A further 23% NPP reduction occurs in response to a 3.5 degrees C warmer air temperature associated with a global mean SST warming.

Temperature and size variabilities of the Western Pacific Warm Pool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yan, Xiao-Hai; Ho, Chung-Ru; Zheng, Quanan; Klemas, Vic

1992-01-01

Variabilities in sea-surface temperature and size of the Western Pacific Warm Pool were tracked with 10 years of satellite multichannel sea-surface temperature observations from 1982 to 1991. The results show that both annual mean sea-surface temperature and the size of the warm pool increased from 1983 to 1987 and fluctuated after 1987. Possible causes of these variations include solar irradiance variabilities, El Nino-Southern Oscillaton events, volcanic activities, and global warming.

Chromium Isotope Anomaly Scaling with Past Warming Episodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remmelzwaal, S.; O'Connor, L.; Preston, W.; Parkinson, I. J.; Schmidt, D. N.

2017-12-01

The recent expansion of oxygen minimum zones caused by anthropogenic global warming raises questions about the scale of this expansion with different emission scenarios. Ocean deoxygenation will impact marine ecosystems and fisheries demanding an assessment of the possible extent and intensity of deoxygenation. Here, we used past climate warming events to quantify a potential link between warming and the spread of oxygen minimum zones: including Ocean Anoxic Event (OAE) 1a, OAE 2 in the Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2), and Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles. We applied the emerging proxy of chromium isotopes in planktic foraminifera to assess redox changes during the PETM, ETM2, and Pleistocene and bulk carbonate for the OAEs. Both δ53Cr and chromium concentrations respond markedly during the PETM indicative of a reduction in dissolved oxygen concentrations caused by changes in ocean ventilation and associated warming [1]. A strong correlation between Δδ53Cr and benthic Δδ18O, a measure of the excursion size in both oxygen and chromium isotopes, suggest temperatures to be one of the main drivers of ocean deoxygenation in the past [1]. Chromium concentrations decrease during ETM2 and OAE1a, and, increase by 4.5 ppm over the Plenus Cold Event during OAE2, which suggests enhanced seafloor ventilation. [1] Remmelzwaal, S.R.C., Dixon, S., Parkinson, I.J., Schmidt, D.N., Monteiro, F.M., Sexton, P., Fehr, M., Peacock, C., Donnadieu, Y., James, R.H., in review. Ocean deoxygenation during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. EPSL.

Sources of global warming of the upper ocean on decadal period scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Warren B.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.

2003-01-01

Recent studies find global climate variability in the upper ocean and lower atmosphere during the twentieth century dominated by quasi-biennial, interannual, quasi-decadal and interdecadal signals. The quasi-decadal signal in upper ocean temperature undergoes global warming/cooling of ???0.1??C, similar to that occuring with the interannual signal (i.e., El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation), both signals dominated by global warming/cooling in the tropics. From the National Centers for Environmental Prediction troposphere reanalysis and Scripps Institution of Oceanography upper ocean temperature reanalysis we examine the quasi-decadal global tropical diabetic heat storage (DHS) budget from 1975 to 2000. We find the anomalous DHS warming tendency of 0.3-0.9 W m-2 driven principally by a downward global tropical latent-plus-sensible heat flux anomaly into the ocean, overwhelming the tendency by weaker upward shortwave-minus-longwave heat flux anomaly to drive an anomalous DHS cooling tendency. During the peak quasi-decadal warming the estimated dissipation of DHS anomaly of 0.2-0.5 W m-2 into the deep ocean and a similar loss to the overlying atmosphere through air-sea heat flux anomaly are balanced by a decrease in the net poleward Ekman heat advection out of the tropics of 0.4-0.7 W m-2. This scenario is nearly the opposite of that accounting for global tropical warming during the El Nin??o. These diagnostics confirm that even though the global quasi-decadal signal is phase-locked to the 11-year signal in the Sun's surface radiative forcing of ???0.1 W m-2, the anomalous global tropical DHS tendency cannot be driven by it directly.

Theory of warm ionized gases: equation of state and kinetic Schottky anomaly.

PubMed

Capolupo, A; Giampaolo, S M; Illuminati, F

2013-10-01

Based on accurate Lennard-Jones-type interaction potentials, we derive a closed set of state equations for the description of warm atomic gases in the presence of ionization processes. The specific heat is predicted to exhibit peaks in correspondence to single and multiple ionizations. Such kinetic analog in atomic gases of the Schottky anomaly in solids is enhanced at intermediate and low atomic densities. The case of adiabatic compression of noble gases is analyzed in detail and the implications on sonoluminescence are discussed. In particular, the predicted plasma electron density in a sonoluminescent bubble turns out to be in good agreement with the value measured in recent experiments.

Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts. A Review in the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Mohino, Elsa; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Caminade, Cyril; Biasutti, Michela; Gaetani, Marco; Garcia-Serrano, J.; Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry; Xue, Yongkang;

Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

2017-10-01

Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

Near bottom temperature anomalies in the Dead Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Avraham, Zvi; Ballard, Robert D.

1984-12-01

A bottom photographic and temperature study was carried out in the Dead Sea using a miniature version of the unmanned camera system ANGUS (mini-ANGUS). Due to the low transparency of the Dead Sea water, the bottom photographs provide very poor results. Only in a very few locations was the floor visible and in those cases it was found to be a white undulating sedimentary surface. The bottom temperature measurements, which were made continuously along the ship track, indicate the presence of a large zone of temperature anomalies. This zone is located in the deep part of the north basin at a water depth of over 330 m. The anomalies occur above a portion of an east-west fault which cuts through the Dead Sea suggesting the presence of hydrothermal activity.

Role of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region in the northeast Asia severe drought in summer 2014: month-to-month perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhiqing; Fan, Ke; Wang, HuiJun

2017-09-01

The severe drought over northeast Asia in summer 2014 and the contribution to it by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region were investigated from the month-to-month perspective. The severe drought was accompanied by weak lower-level summer monsoon flow and featured an obvious northward movement during summer. The mid-latitude Asian summer (MAS) pattern and East Asia/Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern, induced by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) rainfall anomalies respectively, were two main bridges between the SST anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region and the severe drought. Warming in the Arabian Sea induced reduced rainfall over northeast India and then triggered a negative MAS pattern favoring the severe drought in June 2014. In July 2014, warming in the tropical western North Pacific led to a strong WNPSM and increased rainfall over the Philippine Sea, triggering a positive EAP pattern. The equatorial eastern Pacific and local warming resulted in increased rainfall over the off-equatorial western Pacific and triggered an EAP-like pattern. The EAP pattern and EAP-like pattern contributed to the severe drought in July 2014. A negative Indian Ocean dipole induced an anomalous meridional circulation, and warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific induced an anomalous zonal circulation, in August 2014. The two anomalous cells led to a weak ISM and WNPSM, triggering the negative MAS and EAP patterns responsible for the severe drought. Two possible reasons for the northward movement of the drought were also proposed.

Warm & wet or warm & dry? - A tree-ring based drought reconstruction from the European lowlands with emphasis on the medieval climate anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharnweber, Tobias; Heinrich, Ingo; van der Maaten, Ernst; Heußner, Karl-Uwe; Wilmking, Martin

2016-04-01

Recent advances in reconstructing natural drought variability in Europe, such as the 'Old world drought atlas' (Cook et al., 2015), have sharpened our picture of historical hydroclimatic variability. However, our knowledge lacks high spatial resolution, especially for the northern non-arid regions. For example, it is still under debate if the so called medieval climate anomaly (MCA; ~950-1300 AD), a period of warm temperatures comparable to the contemporary warm phase, was likewise accompanied by increased drought occurrence, or, on the contrary, was rather wet (e.g. Kress et al., 2014). Here, we present a new millennial long drought reconstruction based on a unique dataset of tree rings from historical and modern beech wood from the northeastern European lowlands. Beech has a stable and strong regional summer drought signal over the calibration period of instrumental data (r>0.7 with drought index PDSI over 1900-2010) which, in contrast to other species such as oak, is consistent irrespective of the site/soil conditions the trees grew in. It can be assumed that during medieval times beech wood was available locally and not traded long distances. This strongly reduces the possibility that the new reconstruction mixes different signals of the possibly high spatial variability of precipitation. The extremely high replication of our chronology for the period 1000-1300 AD (peak in town foundations in NE-Germany) with more than 600 series enables a direct comparison with the well replicated recent period 1800-2010. In contrast to the results of Kress et al. (2014) for the Swiss Alps, but in accordance with the 'Old world drought atlas', our first results point at a rather dry and warm MCA in NE-Germany. In addition they support the observation that the hydroclimate of the twentieth century was highly variable compared with the last millennium. References Cook ER, Seager R, Kushnir Y, et al. (2015) Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era. Science

A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewin, Keith F.; McMahon, Andrew M.; Ely, Kim S.

Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. But, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by ~1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be ~2–3more » °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW) chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. Our approach is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming approaches is desired.« less

A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewin, Keith F.; McMahon, Andrew M.; Ely, Kim S.; Serbin, Shawn P.; Rogers, Alistair

2017-09-01

Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. However, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by ˜ 1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be ˜ 2-3 °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW) chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. The approach we describe is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming approaches is desired.

A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature

DOE PAGES

Lewin, Keith F.; McMahon, Andrew M.; Ely, Kim S.; ...

2017-09-19

Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. But, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by ~1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be ~2–3more » °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW) chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. Our approach is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming approaches is desired.« less

Reply to Stone Et Al.: Human-Made Role in Local Temperature Extremes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto A.

2013-01-01

Stone et al. find that their analysis is unable to show a causal relation of local temperature anomalies, such as in Texas in 2011, with global warming. It was because of limitations in such local analyses that we reframed the problem in our report, separating the task of attribution of the causes of global warming from the task of quantifying changes in the likelihood of extreme local temperature anomalies.

Equatorial temperature anomaly during solar minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhasini, R.; Raghavarao, R.; Mayr, H. G.; Hoegy, W. R.; Wharton, L. E.

2001-11-01

We show evidence for the occurrence of the equatorial temperature anomaly (ETA) during solar minimum by analyzing the temperature and total ion density data from the Neutral Atmosphere Temperature Experiment (NATE) and the Cylindrical Electrostatic Probe (CEP), respectively, on board the Atmospheric Explorer-E satellite. The chosen data refer to a height of ~254 km in the African and Asian longitude sector (340.1°E-200°E) during a summer season in the Southern Hemisphere. As during the solar maximum period, the spatial characteristics of the ETA are similar to those of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). A minimum in the gas temperature is collocated with the minimum in the ion density at the dip equator, and a temperature maximum on the south side of the equator is collocated with the density maximum of the EIA. The daytime behavior of ETA formation is about the same as that of EIA as both of them are clearly present at around 1300 and 1400 local solar time (LST) only. At 1400 LST the difference between the temperatures at the crest and the trough (ETA strength) reaches a maximum value of about 100°K which is ~14% of the temperature at the trough. Like the EIA, the ETA also suddenly disappears after 1400 LST. Thus the EIA appears to be a prerequisite for the ETA formation. During the premidnight time (2200 LST), however, while the EIA is nonexistent, the temperature distribution forms a pattern opposite to that at 1400 LST in the daytime. It shows a maximum around the dip equator and a broad minimum at the daytime crest region where the postsunset cooling also is faster and occurs earlier than at the dip equator. This nighttime maximum appears to be related to the signature of the midnight temperature maximum (MTM). Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter (MSIS) model temperatures, in general, are higher than the observed average temperatures for the summer season and in particular for the region around the dip equator around noon hours.

Common Warm Dust Temperatures Around Main Sequence Stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morales, Farisa; Rieke, George; Werner, Michael; Stapelfeldt, Karl; Bryden, Geoffrey; Su, Kate

2011-01-01

We compare the properties of warm dust emission from a sample of main-sequence A-type stars (B8-A7) to those of dust around solar-type stars (F5-KO) with similar Spitzer Space Telescope Infrared Spectrograph/MIPS data and similar ages. Both samples include stars with sources with infrared spectral energy distributions that show evidence of multiple components. Over the range of stellar types considered, we obtain nearly the same characteristic dust temperatures (∼ 190 K and ∼60 K for the inner and outer dust components, respectively)-slightly above the ice evaporation temperature for the inner belts. The warm inner dust temperature is readily explained if populations of small grains are being released by sublimation of ice from icy planetesimals. Evaporation of low-eccentricity icy bodies at ∼ 150 K can deposit particles into an inner/warm belt, where the small grains are heated to dust Temperatures of -190 K. Alternatively, enhanced collisional processing of an asteroid belt-like system of parent planetesimals just interior to the snow line may account for the observed uniformity in dust temperature. The similarity in temperature of the warmer dust across our B8-KO stellar sample strongly suggests that dust-producing planetesimals are not found at similar radial locations around all stars, but that dust production is favored at a characteristic temperature horizon.

Response of Global Lightning Activity Observed by the TRMM/LIS During Warm and Cold ENSO Phases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chronis, Themis G.; Cecil, Dan; Goodman, Steven J.; Buechler, Dennis

2007-01-01

This paper investigates the response of global lightning activity to the transition from the warm (January February March-JFM 1998) to the cold (JFM 1999) ENSO phase. The nine-year global lightning climatology for these months from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) provides the observational baseline. Flash rate density is computed on a 5.0x5.0 degree lat/lon grid within the LIS coverage area (between approx.37.5 N and S) for each three month period. The flash rate density anomalies from this climatology are examined for these months in 1998 and 1999. The observed lightning anomalies spatially match the documented general circulation features that accompany the warm and cold ENSO events. During the warm ENSO phase the dominant positive lightning anomalies are located mostly over the Western Hemisphere and more specifically over Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Northern Mid-Atlantic. We further investigate specifically the Northern Mid-Atlantic related anomaly features since these show strong relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Furthermore these observed anomaly patterns show strong spatial agreement with anomalous upper level (200 mb) cold core cyclonic circulations. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies during the warm ENSO phase also affect the lightning activity, but this is mostly observed near coastal environments. Over the open tropical oceans, there is climatologically less lightning and the anomalies are less pronounced. Warm ENSO related anomalies over the Eastern Hemisphere are most prominent over the South China coast. The transition to the cold ENSO phase illustrates the detected lightning anomalies to be more pronounced over East and West Pacific. A comparison of total global lightning between warm and cold ENSO phase reveals no significant difference, although prominent regional anomalies are located over mostly oceanic environments. All three tropical "chimneys" (Maritime Continent, Central

Prolonged California aridity linked to climate warming and Pacific sea surface temperature.

PubMed

MacDonald, Glen M; Moser, Katrina A; Bloom, Amy M; Potito, Aaron P; Porinchu, David F; Holmquist, James R; Hughes, Julia; Kremenetski, Konstantine V

2016-09-15

California has experienced a dry 21(st) century capped by severe drought from 2012 through 2015 prompting questions about hydroclimatic sensitivity to anthropogenic climate change and implications for the future. We address these questions using a Holocene lake sediment record of hydrologic change from the Sierra Nevada Mountains coupled with marine sediment records from the Pacific. These data provide evidence of a persistent relationship between past climate warming, Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) shifts and centennial to millennial episodes of California aridity. The link is most evident during the thermal-maximum of the mid-Holocene (~8 to 3 ka; ka = 1,000 calendar years before present) and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (~1 ka to 0.7 ka). In both cases, climate warming corresponded with cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific despite differences in the factors producing increased radiative forcing. The magnitude of prolonged eastern Pacific cooling was modest, similar to observed La Niña excursions of 1(o) to 2 °C. Given differences with current radiative forcing it remains uncertain if the Pacific will react in a similar manner in the 21st century, but should it follow apparent past behavior more intense and prolonged aridity in California would result.

Localized thermal anomalies in haloclines of coastal Yucatan sinkholes.

PubMed

Stoessell, Ronald K; Coke, James G; Easley, Dale H

2002-01-01

A temperature spike is reported in the haloclines of three Yucatan sinkholes along a 1 km NW-SE transect from 5 to 4 km inland from the Caribbean coast. The temperature spike decreases in magnitude from 3.5 degrees C to 0.2 degrees C, approaching the coast. The anomaly does not vary diurnally and does not extend down into the underlying sea water. These conditions are inconsistent with explanations such as radiation absorption within the halocline, in situ microbially mediated sulfate reduction within the halocline and the underlying sea water, and sulfide oxidation by photosynthetic purple and green bacteria within the halocline. One explanation consistent with the shape and halocline location of the temperature spike involves a localized sea water convection cell operating near the coast. Cold sea water from the Caribbean Sea enters the coastal limestone at depths of a few hundred meters and heats up because of the geothermal gradient, buoyantly rising in vertical fractures within the unconfined aquifer. Blocked by the less dense fresh water, the movement stops in the halocline where the warm sea water mixes with brackish water. The convection cycle would be completed by the coastward movement of cooling brackish water. The observed temperature anomalies could possibly be snapshots of this warm layer moving coastward.

Human Milk Warming Temperatures Using a Simulation of Currently Available Storage and Warming Methods

PubMed Central

Bransburg-Zabary, Sharron; Virozub, Alexander; Mimouni, Francis B.

2015-01-01

Human milk handling guidelines are very demanding, based upon solid scientific evidence that handling methods can make a real difference in infant health and nutrition. Indeed, properly stored milk maintains many of its unique qualities and continues to be the second and third best infant feeding alternatives, much superior to artificial feeding. Container type and shape, mode of steering, amount of air exposure and storage temperature may adversely affect milk stability and composition. Heating above physiological temperatures significantly impacts nutritional and immunological properties of milk. In spite of this knowledge, there are no strict guidelines regarding milk warming. Human milk is often heated in electrical-based bottle warmers that can exceed 80°C, a temperature at which many beneficial human milk properties disappear. High temperatures can also induce fat profile variations as compared with fresh human milk. In this manuscript we estimate the amount of damage due to overheating during warming using a heat flow simulation of a regular water based bottle warmer. To do so, we carried out a series of warming simulations which provided us with dynamic temperature fields within bottled milk. We simulated the use of a hot water-bath at 80°C to heat bottled refrigerated milk (60ml and 178 ml) to demonstrate that large milk portions are overheated (above 40°C). It seems that the contemporary storage method (upright feeding tool, i.e. bottle) and bottle warming device, are not optimize to preserve the unique properties of human milk. Health workers and parents should be aware of this problem especially when it relates to sick neonates and preemies that cannot be directly fed at the breast. PMID:26061694

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sigmond, M.; Scinocca, J. F.; Kharin, V. V.; Shepherd, T. G.

2013-02-01

Advances in seasonal forecasting have brought widespread socio-economic benefits. However, seasonal forecast skill in the extratropics is relatively modest, prompting the seasonal forecasting community to search for additional sources of predictability. For over a decade it has been suggested that knowledge of the state of the stratosphere can act as a source of enhanced seasonal predictability; long-lived circulation anomalies in the lower stratosphere that follow stratospheric sudden warmings are associated with circulation anomalies in the troposphere that can last up to two months. Here, we show by performing retrospective ensemble model forecasts that such enhanced predictability can be realized in a dynamical seasonal forecast system with a good representation of the stratosphere. When initialized at the onset date of stratospheric sudden warmings, the model forecasts faithfully reproduce the observed mean tropospheric conditions in the months following the stratospheric sudden warmings. Compared with an equivalent set of forecasts that are not initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings, we document enhanced forecast skill for atmospheric circulation patterns, surface temperatures over northern Russia and eastern Canada and North Atlantic precipitation. We suggest that seasonal forecast systems initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings are likely to yield significantly greater forecast skill in some regions.

Effect of warming temperatures on US wheat yields.

PubMed

Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Nalley, Lawton Lanier

2015-06-02

Climate change is expected to increase future temperatures, potentially resulting in reduced crop production in many key production regions. Research quantifying the complex relationship between weather variables and wheat yields is rapidly growing, and recent advances have used a variety of model specifications that differ in how temperature data are included in the statistical yield equation. A unique data set that combines Kansas wheat variety field trial outcomes for 1985-2013 with location-specific weather data is used to analyze the effect of weather on wheat yield using regression analysis. Our results indicate that the effect of temperature exposure varies across the September-May growing season. The largest drivers of yield loss are freezing temperatures in the Fall and extreme heat events in the Spring. We also find that the overall effect of warming on yields is negative, even after accounting for the benefits of reduced exposure to freezing temperatures. Our analysis indicates that there exists a tradeoff between average (mean) yield and ability to resist extreme heat across varieties. More-recently released varieties are less able to resist heat than older lines. Our results also indicate that warming effects would be partially offset by increased rainfall in the Spring. Finally, we find that the method used to construct measures of temperature exposure matters for both the predictive performance of the regression model and the forecasted warming impacts on yields.

Teleconnection of the 1997 El Nino Observed by Spaceborne Sensors and the Dacadal Anomalies in the Northeast Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W.; Hu, H.; Xie, X.

1999-01-01

Liu et al.[1998] (hereafter referred as LTH), superimposed wind velocity anomalies observed by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) on the map of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies observed by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) in the Pacific at the end of May 1997, and illustrated that the three regions of anomalous warming in the North Pacific Ocean are related to wind anomalies through different mechanisms.

Impact of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis in coupled and forced simulations: role of SST spatial anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royer, Jean-François; Chauvin, Fabrice; Daloz, Anne-Sophie

2010-05-01

The response of tropical cyclones (TC) activity to global warming has not yet reached a clear consensus in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) or in the recent scientific literature. Observed series are neither long nor reliable enough for a statistically significant detection and attribution of past TC trends, and coupled climate models give widely divergent results for the future evolution of TC activity in the different ocean basins. The potential importance of the spatial structure of the future SST warming has been pointed out by Chauvin et al. (2006) in simulations performed at CNRM with the ARPEGE-Climat GCM. The current presentation describes a new set of simulations that have been performed with the ARPEGE-Climat model to try to understand the possible role of SST patterns in the TC cyclogenesis response in 15 CMIP3 coupled simulations analysed by Royer et al (2009). The new simulations have been performed with the atmospheric component of the ARPEGE-Climat GCM forced in 10 year simulations by the SST patterns from each of 15 CMIP3 simulations with different climate model at the end of the 21st century according to scenario A2. The TC analysis is based on the computation of a Convective Yearly Genesis Parameter (CYGP) and the Genesis Potential Index (GPI). The computed genesis indices for each of the ARPEGE-Climat forced simulations is compared with the indices computed directly from the initial coupled simulation. The influence of SST patterns can then be more easily assessed since all the ARPEGE-Climat simulations are performed with the same atmospheric model, whereas the original simulations used models with different parameterization and resolutions. The analysis shows that CYGP or GPI anomalies obtained with ARPEGE are as variable between each other as those obtained originally by the different IPCC models. The variety of SST patterns used to force ARPEGE explains a large part of

Marginal sea surface temperature variation as a pre-cursor of heat waves over the Korean Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Na, Hye-Yun

2017-11-01

This study examines the role of the marginal sea surface temperature (SST) on heat waves over Korea. It is found that sea surface warming in the south sea of Korea/Japan (122-138°E, 24- 33°N) causes heat waves after about a week. Due to the frictional force, the positive geopotential height anomalies associated with the south sea warming induce divergent flows over the boundary layer. This divergent flow induces the southerly in Korea, which leads to a positive temperature advection. On the other hand, over the freeatmosphere, the geostrophic wind around high-pressure anomalies flows in a westerly direction over Korea during the south sea warming, which is not effective in temperature advection. Therefore, the positive temperature advection in Korea due to the south sea warming decreases with height. This reduces the vertical potential temperature gradient, which indicates a negative potential vorticity (PV) tendency over Korea. Therefore, the high-pressure anomaly over the south sea of Korea is propagated northward, which results in heat waves due to more incoming solar radiation.

Fall season atypically warm weather event leads to substantial CH4 loss in Arctic ecosystems?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zona, Donatella; Moreaux, Virginie; Liljedahl, Anna; Losacco, Salvatore; Murphy, Patrick; Oechel, Walter

2014-05-01

In the last century (during 1875-2008) high-latitudes are warming at a rate of 1.360C century-1, almost 2 times faster than the Northern Hemisphere trend (Bekryaev et al., 2010). This warming has been more intense outside of the summer season, with anomalies of 1.09, 1.59, 1.730C in the fall, winter, and spring season respectively (Bekryaev et al., 2010). This substantial temperature anomalies have the potential to increase the emission of greenhouse gas (CO2 and CH4) fluxes from arctic tundra ecosystems. In particular, CH4 emissions, which are primarily controlled by temperature (in addition to water table), can steeply increase with warming. Despite the potential relevance of CH4 emissions, very few measurements have been performed outside of the growing season across the entire Arctic, due to logistic constrains. Importantly, no flux measurements achieved a temporal and spatial data coverage sufficient to estimate with confidence an annual CH4 emissions from tundra ecosystem in Alaska, and its sensitivity to warming. Fall 2013 was unusually warm in central and northern Alaska. Following a relatively warm summer with dramatically above-average rainfall, the October mean monthly temperatures was the 4th and top warmest in Barrow (1949-2013) and Ivotuk (1998-2013), respectively. As we just upgraded several eddy covariance towers to measure CO2 and CH4 fluxes year-round, the atypical weather conditions of fall 2013 represented a unique chance for testing the sensitivity of CH4 loss to these atypically warm temperatures. All our sites across a latitudinal gradient (from the northern site, Barrow, to the southern site, Ivotuk), presented substantial CH4 loss in the fall. Importantly, in two of these sites (Barrow, Ivotuk) where the fall weather was substantially warmer than the long term trend, fall CH4 emission represented between 44-63% of the June-November cumulative emission. Surprisingly, in the southernmost site (Ivotuk), when the temperature anomaly was the

Solar cycle length hypothesis appears to support the ipcc on global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laut, P.; Gundermann, J.

1998-12-01

Since the discovery of a striking correlation between 1-2-2-2-1 filtered solar cycle lengths and the 11-year running average of northern hemisphere land air temperatures, there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. The solar hypothesis (as we shall term this assumption) claims that solar activity causes a significant component of the global mean temperature to vary in phase opposite to the filtered solar cycle lengths. In an earlier article we have demonstrated that for data covering the period 1860-1980 the solar hypothesis does not rule out any significant contribution from man-made greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The present analysis goes a step further. We analyse the period 1579-1987 and find that the solar hypothesis-instead of contradicting-appears to support the assumption of a significant warming due to human activities. We have tentatively corrected the historical northern hemisphere land air temperature anomalies by removing the assumed effects of human activities. These are represented by northern hemisphere land air temperature anomalies calculated as the contributions from man-made greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols by using an upwelling diffusion-energy balance model similar to the model of [Wigley and Raper, 1993] employed in the Second Assessment Report of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It turns out that the agreement of the filtered solar cycle lengths with the corrected temperature anomalies is substantially better than with the historical anomalies, with the mean square deviation reduced by 36% for a climate sensitivity of 2.5°C, the central value of the IPCC assessment, and by 43% for the best-fit value of 1.7°C. Therefore our findings support a total reversal of the common assumption that a verification of the solar hypothesis would challenge the IPCC assessment of

Global temperatures and the global warming ``debate''

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aubrecht, Gordon

2009-04-01

Many ordinary citizens listen to pronouncements on talk radio casting doubt on anthropogenic global warming. Some op-ed columnists likewise cast doubts, and are read by credulous citizens. For example, on 8 March 2009, the Boston Globe published a column by Jeff Jacoby, ``Where's global warming?'' According to Jacoby, ``But it isn't such hints of a planetary warming trend that have been piling up in profusion lately. Just the opposite.'' He goes on to write, ``the science of climate change is not nearly as important as the religion of climate change,'' and blamed Al Gore for getting his mistaken views accepted. George Will at the Washington Post also expressed denial. As a result, 44% of U.S. voters, according to the January 19 2009 Rasmussen Report, blame long-term planetary trends for global warming, not human beings. Is there global cooling, as skeptics claim? We examine the temperature record.

The Interrelationship Between Temperature Changes in the Free Atmosphere and Sea Surface Temperature Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newell, Reginald E.; Wu, Zhong-Xiang

1992-03-01

Fields of sea surface temperature anomalies from the Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas (GOSTA) and microwave sounding measurements (MSU) of temperature in the troposphere are examined separately and together for the 1979-1988 period. Global correlation patterns of both sets of fields are investigated at a range of leads and lags up to 6 months and exhibit a wide range of correlation structure. There are regions, such as the tropical eastern Pacific, where sea surface temperature anomalies persist for several months and are associated with local air temperature anomalies; in this particular example, about 0.7°C air temperature change is associated with a 1.0°C sea temperature change. By contrast, some ocean regions and many atmospheric regions, mostly in middle and high latitude, show only local spatial correlations that disappear completely in a month or two. The most persistent and extensive spatial correlation patterns are quite different for the sea and the air. In the sea the "butterfly" pattern of the Pacific is the most important and reverses sign between the eastern equatorial Pacific and the western Pacific and subtropics. In the warm phase the temperature anomalies associated with this pattern are similar to the correlation pattern. For the atmosphere the main correlation pattern is an equatorial belt with no sign changes in the tropics; this pattern is linked to the oceanic El Niño mode. In the warm phase the temperature anomalies show peak values on both sides of the equator in the eastern and central Pacific. Based mainly on the results from the spatial patterns, certain regions are selected for intercomparison of time series. In the tropical eastern Pacific the sea leads the air by about a month while in the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio regions the sequence is reversed.

Recent Global Warming as Observed by AIRS and Depicted in GISSTEMP and MERRA-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Lee, Jae; Iredell, Lena

2017-01-01

AIRS Version-6 monthly mean level-3 surface temperature products confirm the result, depicted in the GISSTEMP dataset, that the earth's surface temperature has been warming since early 2015, though not before that. AIRS is at a higher spatial resolution than GISSTEMP, and produces sharper spatial features which are otherwise in excellent agreement with those of GISSTEMP. Version-6 AO Ts anomalies are consistent with those of Version-6 AIRS/AMSU. Version-7 AO anomalies should be even more accurate, especially at high latitudes. ARCs of MERRA-2 Ts anomalies are spurious as a result of a discontinuity which occurred somewhere between 2007 and 2008. This decreases global mean trends.

Global coral disease prevalence associated with sea temperature anomalies and local factors.

PubMed

Ruiz-Moreno, Diego; Willis, Bette L; Page, A Cathie; Weil, Ernesto; Cróquer, Aldo; Vargas-Angel, Bernardo; Jordan-Garza, Adán Guillermo; Jordán-Dahlgren, Eric; Raymundo, Laurie; Harvell, C Drew

2012-09-12

Coral diseases are taking an increasing toll on coral reef structure and biodiversity and are important indicators of declining health in the oceans. We implemented standardized coral disease surveys to pinpoint hotspots of coral disease, reveal vulnerable coral families and test hypotheses about climate drivers from 39 locations worldwide. We analyzed a 3 yr study of coral disease prevalence to identify links between disease and a range of covariates, including thermal anomalies (from satellite data), location and coral cover, using a Generalized Linear Mixed Model. Prevalence of unhealthy corals, i.e. those with signs of known diseases or with other signs of compromised health, exceeded 10% on many reefs and ranged to over 50% on some. Disease prevalence exceeded 10% on 20% of Caribbean reefs and 2.7% of Pacific reefs surveyed. Within the same coral families across oceans, prevalence of unhealthy colonies was higher and some diseases were more common at sites in the Caribbean than those in the Pacific. The effects of high disease prevalence are potentially extensive given that the most affected coral families, the acroporids, faviids and siderastreids, are among the major reef-builders at these sites. The poritids and agaricids stood out in the Caribbean as being the most resistant to disease, even though these families were abundant in our surveys. Regional warm temperature anomalies were strongly correlated with high disease prevalence. The levels of disease reported here will provide a much-needed local reference point against which to compare future change.

Investigating the Impacts of Surface Temperature Anomalies due to Burned Area Albedo in Northern sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabbert, T.; Matsui, T.; Capehart, W. J.; Ichoku, C. M.; Gatebe, C. K.

2015-12-01

The northern Sub-Saharan African region (NSSA) is an area of intense focus due to periodic severe droughts that have dire consequences on the growing population, which relies mostly on rain fed agriculture for its food supply. This region's weather and hydrologic cycle are very complex and are dependent on the West African Monsoon. Different regional processes affect the West African Monsoon cycle and variability. One of the areas of current investigation is the water cycle response to the variability of land surface characteristics. Land surface characteristics are often altered in NSSA due to agricultural practices, grazing, and the fires that occur during the dry season. To better understand the effects of biomass burning on the hydrologic cycle of the sub-Saharan environment, an interdisciplinary team sponsored by NASA is analyzing potential feedback mechanisms due to the fires. As part of this research, this study focuses on the effects of land surface changes, particularly albedo and skin temperature, that are influenced by biomass burning. Surface temperature anomalies can influence the initiation of convective rainfall and surface albedo is linked to the absorption of solar radiation. To capture the effects of fire perturbations on the land surface, NASA's Unified Weather and Research Forecasting (NU-WRF) model coupled with NASA's Land Information System (LIS) is being used to simulate burned area surface albedo inducing surface temperature anomalies and other potential effects to environmental processes. Preliminary sensitivity results suggest an altered surface radiation budget, regional warming of the surface temperature, slight increase in average rainfall, and a change in precipitation locations.

Recent accelerated warming of the continental shelf off New Jersey: Observations from the CMV Oleander expendable bathythermograph line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsyth, Jacob Samuel Tse; Andres, Magdalena; Gawarkiewicz, Glen G.

2015-03-01

Expendable bathythermographs (XBTs) have been launched along a repeat track from New Jersey to Bermuda from the CMV Oleander through the NOAA/NEFSC Ship of Opportunity Program about 14 times per year since 1977. The XBT temperatures on the Middle Atlantic Bight shelf are binned with 10 km horizontal and 5 m vertical resolution to produce monthly, seasonally, and annually averaged cross-shelf temperature sections. The depth-averaged shelf temperature, Ts, calculated from annually averaged sections that are spatially averaged across the shelf, increases at 0.026 ± 0.001°C yr-1 from 1977 to 2013, with the recent trend substantially larger than the overall 37 year trend (0.11 ± 0.02°C yr-1 since 2002). The Oleander temperature sections suggest that the recent acceleration in warming on the shelf is not confined to the surface, but occurs throughout the water column with some contribution from interactions between the shelf and the adjacent Slope Sea reflected in cross-shelf motions of the shelfbreak front. The local warming on the shelf cannot explain the region's amplified rate of sea level rise relative to the global mean. Additionally, Ts exhibits significant interannual variability with the warmest anomalies increasing in intensity over the 37 year record even as the cold anomalies remain relatively uniform throughout the record. Ts anomalies are not correlated with annually averaged coastal sea level anomalies at zero lag. However, positive correlation is found between 2 year lagged Ts anomalies and coastal sea level anomalies, suggesting that the region's sea level anomalies may serve as a predictor of shelf temperature.

Upper mixed layer temperature anomalies at the North Atlantic storm-track zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moshonkin, S. N.; Diansky, N. A.

1995-10-01

Synoptic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) were determined as a result of separation of time scales smaller than 183 days. The SSTAs were investigated using daily data of ocean weather station C (52.75°N; 35.5°W) from 1 January 1976 to 31 December 1980 (1827 days). There were 47 positive and 50 negative significant SSTAs (lifetime longer than 3 days, absolute value greater than 0.10 °C) with four main intervals of the lifetime repetitions: 1. 4-7 days (45% of all cases), 2. 9-13 days (20-25%), 3. 14-18 days (10-15%), and 4. 21-30 days (10-15%) and with a magnitude 1.5-2.0 °C. An upper layer balance model based on equations for temperature, salinity, mechanical energy (with advanced parametrization), state (density), and drift currents was used to simulate SSTA. The original method of modelling taking into account the mean observed temperature profiles proved to be very stable. The model SSTAs are in a good agreement with the observed amplitudes and phases of synoptic SSTAs during all 5 years. Surface heat flux anomalies are the main source of SSTAs. The influence of anomalous drift heat advection is about 30-50% of the SSTA, and the influence of salinity anomalies is about 10-25% and less. The influence of a large-scale ocean front was isolated only once in February-April 1978 during all 5 years. Synoptic SSTAs develop just in the upper half of the homogeneous layer at each winter. We suggest that there are two main causes of such active sublayer formation: 1. surface heat flux in the warm sectors of cyclones and 2. predominant heat transport by ocean currents from the south. All frequency functions of the ocean temperature synoptic response to heat and momentum surface fluxes are of integral character (red noise), though there is strong resonance with 20-days period of wind-driven horizontal heat advection with mixed layer temperature; there are some other peculiarities on the time scales from 5.5 to 13 days. Observed and modelled frequency functions

Native temperature regime influences soil response to simulated warming

Treesearch

Timothy G. Whitby; Michael D. Madritch

2013-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase global temperatures and potentially increase soil carbon (C) mineralization, which could lead to a positive feedback between global warming and soil respiration. However the magnitude and spatial variability of belowground responses to warming are not yet fully understood. Some of the variability may depend...

The influence of global sea surface temperature variability on the large-scale land surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyrrell, Nicholas L.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Frauen, Claudia; Wales, Scott; Rezny, Mike

2015-04-01

In global warming scenarios, global land surface temperatures () warm with greater amplitude than sea surface temperatures (SSTs), leading to a land/sea warming contrast even in equilibrium. Similarly, the interannual variability of is larger than the covariant interannual SST variability, leading to a land/sea contrast in natural variability. This work investigates the land/sea contrast in natural variability based on global observations, coupled general circulation model simulations and idealised atmospheric general circulation model simulations with different SST forcings. The land/sea temperature contrast in interannual variability is found to exist in observations and models to a varying extent in global, tropical and extra-tropical bands. There is agreement between models and observations in the tropics but not the extra-tropics. Causality in the land-sea relationship is explored with modelling experiments forced with prescribed SSTs, where an amplification of the imposed SST variability is seen over land. The amplification of to tropical SST anomalies is due to the enhanced upper level atmospheric warming that corresponds with tropical moist convection over oceans leading to upper level temperature variations that are larger in amplitude than the source SST anomalies. This mechanism is similar to that proposed for explaining the equilibrium global warming land/sea warming contrast. The link of the to the dominant mode of tropical and global interannual climate variability, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is found to be an indirect and delayed connection. ENSO SST variability affects the oceans outside the tropical Pacific, which in turn leads to a further, amplified and delayed response of.

Extreme Temperature Exceedances Change more Rapidly Under Future Warming in Regions of non-Gaussian Short Temperature Distribution Tails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, P. C.; Neelin, J. D.; Meyerson, J.

2017-12-01

Regions of shorter-than-Gaussian warm and cold side temperature distribution tails are shown to occur in spatially coherent patterns in the current climate. Under such conditions, warming may be manifested in more complex ways than if the underlying distribution were close to Gaussian. For example, under a uniform warm shift, the simplest prototype for future warming, a location with a short warm side tail would experience a greater increase in extreme warm exceedances compared to if the distribution were Gaussian. Similarly, for a location with a short cold side tail, a uniform warm shift would result in a rapid decrease in extreme cold exceedances. Both scenarios carry major societal and environmental implications including but not limited to negative impacts on human and ecosystem health, agriculture, and the economy. It is therefore important for climate models to be able to realistically reproduce short tails in simulations of historical climate in order to boost confidence in projections of future temperature extremes. Overall, climate models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project capture many of the principal observed regions of short tails. This suggests the underlying dynamics and physics occur on scales resolved by the models, and helps build confidence in model projections of extremes. Furthermore, most GCMs show more rapid changes in exceedances of extreme temperature thresholds in regions of short tails. Results therefore suggest that the shape of the tails of the underlying temperature distribution is an indicator of how rapidly a location will experience changes to extreme temperature occurrence under future warming.

Electron-ion temperature equilibration in warm dense tantalum

DOE PAGES

Doppner, T; LePape, S.; Ma, T.; ...

2014-11-05

We present measurements of electron-ion temperature equilibration in proton-heated tantalum, under warm dense matter conditions. Our results agree with theoretical predictions for metals calculated using input data from ab initio simulations. Furthermore, the fast relaxation observed in the experiment contrasts with much longer equilibration times found in proton heated carbon, indicating that the energy flow pathways in warm dense matter are far from being fully understood.

Atlantic salmon show capability for cardiac acclimation to warm temperatures.

PubMed

Anttila, Katja; Couturier, Christine S; Overli, Oyvind; Johnsen, Arild; Marthinsen, Gunnhild; Nilsson, Göran E; Farrell, Anthony P

2014-06-24

Increases in environmental temperature predicted to result from global warming have direct effects on performance of ectotherms. Moreover, cardiac function has been observed to limit the tolerance to high temperatures. Here we show that two wild populations of Atlantic salmon originating from northern and southern extremes of its European distribution have strikingly similar cardiac responses to acute warming when acclimated to common temperatures, despite different local environments. Although cardiac collapse starts at 21-23 °C with a maximum heart rate of ~150 beats per min (bpm) for 12 °C-acclimated fish, acclimation to 20 °C considerably raises this temperature (27.5 °C) and maximum heart rate (~200 bpm). Only minor population differences exist and these are consistent with the warmer habitat of the southern population. We demonstrate that the considerable cardiac plasticity discovered for Atlantic salmon is largely independent of natural habitat, and we propose that observed cardiac plasticity may aid salmon to cope with global warming.

Global patterns in lake ecosystem responses to warming based on the temperature dependence of metabolism.

PubMed

Kraemer, Benjamin M; Chandra, Sudeep; Dell, Anthony I; Dix, Margaret; Kuusisto, Esko; Livingstone, David M; Schladow, S Geoffrey; Silow, Eugene; Sitoki, Lewis M; Tamatamah, Rashid; McIntyre, Peter B

2017-05-01

Climate warming is expected to have large effects on ecosystems in part due to the temperature dependence of metabolism. The responses of metabolic rates to climate warming may be greatest in the tropics and at low elevations because mean temperatures are warmer there and metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature (with exponents >1). However, if warming rates are sufficiently fast in higher latitude/elevation lakes, metabolic rate responses to warming may still be greater there even though metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature. Thus, a wide range of global patterns in the magnitude of metabolic rate responses to warming could emerge depending on global patterns of temperature and warming rates. Here we use the Boltzmann-Arrhenius equation, published estimates of activation energy, and time series of temperature from 271 lakes to estimate long-term (1970-2010) changes in 64 metabolic processes in lakes. The estimated responses of metabolic processes to warming were usually greatest in tropical/low-elevation lakes even though surface temperatures in higher latitude/elevation lakes are warming faster. However, when the thermal sensitivity of a metabolic process is especially weak, higher latitude/elevation lakes had larger responses to warming in parallel with warming rates. Our results show that the sensitivity of a given response to temperature (as described by its activation energy) provides a simple heuristic for predicting whether tropical/low-elevation lakes will have larger or smaller metabolic responses to warming than higher latitude/elevation lakes. Overall, we conclude that the direct metabolic consequences of lake warming are likely to be felt most strongly at low latitudes and low elevations where metabolism-linked ecosystem services may be most affected. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effect of warm compress application on tissue temperature in healthy dogs.

PubMed

Millard, Ralph P; Towle-Millard, Heather A; Rankin, David C; Roush, James K

2013-03-01

To measure the effect of warm compress application on tissue temperature in healthy dogs. 10 healthy mixed-breed dogs. Dogs were sedated with hydromorphone (0.1 mg/kg, IV) and diazepam (0.25 mg/kg, IV). Three 24-gauge thermocouple needles were inserted to a depth of 0.5 cm (superficial), 1.0 cm (middle), and 1.5 cm (deep) into a shaved, lumbar, epaxial region to measure tissue temperature. Warm (47°C) compresses were applied with gravity dependence for periods of 5, 10, and 20 minutes. Tissue temperature was recorded before compress application and at intervals for up to 80 minutes after application. Control data were collected while dogs received identical sedation but with no warm compress. Mean temperature associated with 5 minutes of heat application at the superficial, middle, and deep depths was significantly increased, compared with the control temperature. Application for 10 minutes significantly increased the temperature at all depths, compared with 5 minutes of application. Mean temperature associated with 20 minutes of application was not different at the superficial or middle depths, compared with 10 minutes of application. Temperature at the deep depth associated with 10 minutes of application was significantly higher, compared with 20 minutes of application, but all temperature increases at this depth were minimal. Results suggested that application of a warm compress should be performed for 10 minutes. Changes in temperature at a tissue depth of 1.5 cm were minimal or not detected. The optimal compress temperature to achieve therapeutic benefits was not determined.

Evidence of thermophilisation and elevation-dependent warming during the Last Interglacial in the Italian Alps.

PubMed

Johnston, V E; Borsato, A; Frisia, S; Spötl, C; Dublyansky, Y; Töchterle, P; Hellstrom, J C; Bajo, P; Edwards, R L; Cheng, H

2018-02-08

Thermophilisation is the response of plants communities in mountainous areas to increasing temperatures, causing an upward migration of warm-adapted (thermophilic) species and consequently, the timberline. This greening, associated with warming, causes enhanced evapotranspiration that leads to intensification of the hydrological cycle, which is recorded by hydroclimate-sensitive archives, such as stalagmites and flowstones formed in caves. Understanding how hydroclimate manifests at high altitudes is important for predicting future water resources of many regions of Europe that rely on glaciers and snow accumulation. Using proxy data from three coeval speleothems (stalagmites and flowstone) from the Italian Alps, we reconstructed both the ecosystem and hydrological setting during the Last Interglacial (LIG); a warm period that may provide an analogue to a near-future climate scenario. Our speleothem proxy data, including calcite fabrics and the stable isotopes of calcite and fluid inclusions, indicate a +4.3 ± 1.6 °C temperature anomaly at ~2000 m a.s.l. for the peak LIG, with respect to present-day values (1961-1990). This anomaly is significantly higher than any low-altitude reconstructions for the LIG in Europe, implying elevation-dependent warming during the LIG. The enhanced warming at high altitudes must be accounted for when considering future climate adaption strategies in sensitive mountainous regions.

Effects of experimental warming on soil temperature, moisture and respiration in northern Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharkhuu, A.; Plante, A. F.; Casper, B. B.; Helliker, B. R.; Liancourt, P.; Boldgiv, B.; Petraitis, P.

2010-12-01

Mean annual air temperature in the Lake Hövsgöl region of northern Mongolia has increased by 1.8 °C over the last 40 years, greater than global average temperature increases. A decrease of soil moisture due to changes in precipitation regime is also predicted over the northern region of Mongolia. Warmer temperatures generally result in higher soil CO2 efflux, but responses of soil efflux to climate change may differ among ecosystems due to response variations in soil temperature and moisture regime. The objectives of our study were to examine the environmental responses (soil temperature and moisture) to experimental warming, and to test responses of soil CO2 efflux to experimental warming, in three different ecozones. The experimental site is located in Dalbay Valley, on the eastern shore of Lake Hövsgöl in northern Mongolia (51.0234° N 100.7600° E; 1670 m elevation). Replicate plots with ITEX-style open-top passive warming chambers (OTC) and non-warmed control areas were installed in three ecosystems: (1) semi-arid grassland on the south-facing slope not underlain by permafrost, (2) riparian zone, and (3) larch forest on the north-facing slope underlain by permafrost. Aboveground air temperature and belowground soil temperature and moisture (10 and 20 cm) were monitored using sensors and dataloggers. Soil CO2 efflux was measured periodically using a portable infra-red gas analyzer with an attached soil respiration chamber. The warming chambers were installed and data collected during the 2009 and 2010 growing seasons. Passive warming chambers increased nighttime air temperatures; more so in grassland compared to the forest. Increases in daytime air temperatures were observed in the grassland, but were not significant in the riparian and forest areas. Soil temperatures in warmed plots were consistently higher in all three ecozones at 10 cm depth but not at 20 cm depth. Warming chambers had a slight drying effect in the grassland, but no consistent effect in

The Global Climate Anomaly in 1940-1942

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brönnimann, S.; Luterbacher, J.; Staehelin, J.; Svendby, T. M.

2003-12-01

An unprecedented climatic anomaly occurred in the tropics and in the Northern Hemisphere in 1940-1942. During a strong and prolonged El Niño [Bigg & Inoué, QJRMS 118 (1992), 125], extremely cold winters were observed in Europe, accompanied by very warm temperatures in Alaska and large parts of the Arctic and a cold North Pacific. The anomalies were strong (comprising the two coldest European winters of the 20th century) and extraordinarily persistent. In addition, exceptionally high values of total ozone are reported [Langlo, Geofys. Publ. 18/6 (1952)], pointing to an anomalous stratospheric circulation. Events of this magnitude have a strong economical and environmental impact; the 1940s anomaly even affected World War II. Studying this anomaly in detail contributes to (1) document the extent of 20th century climate variability, (2) understand large-scale coupling processes between the tropics and the extratropics and between the troposphere and the stratosphere and (3) develop tools to analyze past upper-level climate variability prior to 1948, i.e., the reanalysis period. For this study we have compiled, digitized, and re-evaluated several tens of thousands of temperature and pressure profiles from aircraft and radiosonde ascents up to 50 hPa [Brönnimann, Int. J. Clim. 23 (2003), 769]. The upper-air data were supplemented with data from the Earth's surface and used to statistically reconstruct monthly upper-level fields for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere up to 100 hPa [Brönnimann & Luterbacher, Clim. Dyn., submitted]. Although the quality of the reconstructed stratospheric fields is not comparable to more recent data, it is sufficient to allow a broad characterization of the circulation at 100 hPa during the early 1940s. In addition to upper-air data, several total ozone series from the 1940s were re-evaluated [Brönnimann et al., QJRMS 129 (2003), 2819], providing further information on the stratosphere. In this paper we present an analysis of these

Facing warm temperatures during migration: cardiac mRNA responses of two adult Oncorhynchus nerka populations to warming and swimming challenges.

PubMed

Anttila, K; Eliason, E J; Kaukinen, K H; Miller, K M; Farrell, A P

2014-05-01

The main findings of the current study were that exposing adult sockeye salmon Onchorhynchus nerka to a warm temperature that they regularly encounter during their river migration induced a heat shock response at an mRNA level, and this response was exacerbated with forced swimming. Similar to the heat shock response, increased immune defence-related responses were also observed after warm temperature treatment and with a swimming challenge in two different populations (Chilko and Nechako), but with some important differences. Microarray analyses revealed that 347 genes were differentially expressed between the cold (12-13° C) and warm (18-19° C) treated fish, with stress response (GO:0006950) and response to fungus (GO:0009620) elevated with warm treatment, while expression for genes involved in oxidative phosphorylation (GO:0006119) and electron transport chain (GO:0022900) elevated for cold-treated fish. Analysis of single genes with real-time quantitative PCR revealed that temperature had the most significant effect on mRNA expression levels, with swimming and population having secondary influences. Warm temperature treatment for the Chilko population induced expression of heat shock protein (hsp) 90α, hsp90β and hsp30 as well as interferon-inducible protein. The Nechako population, which is known to have a narrower thermal tolerance window than the Chilko population, showed even more pronounced stress responses to the warm treatment and there was significant interaction between population and temperature treatment for hsp90β expression. Moreover, significant interactions were noted between temperature treatment and swimming challenge for hsp90α and hsp30, and while swimming challenge alone increased expression of these hsps, the expression levels were significantly elevated in warm-treated fish swum to exhaustion. In conclusion, it seems that adult O. nerka currently encounter conditions that induce several cellular defence mechanisms during their once

Temperature-dependent body size effects determine population responses to climate warming.

PubMed

Lindmark, Max; Huss, Magnus; Ohlberger, Jan; Gårdmark, Anna

2018-02-01

Current understanding of animal population responses to rising temperatures is based on the assumption that biological rates such as metabolism, which governs fundamental ecological processes, scale independently with body size and temperature, despite empirical evidence for interactive effects. Here, we investigate the consequences of interactive temperature- and size scaling of vital rates for the dynamics of populations experiencing warming using a stage-structured consumer-resource model. We show that interactive scaling alters population and stage-specific responses to rising temperatures, such that warming can induce shifts in population regulation and stage-structure, influence community structure and govern population responses to mortality. Analysing experimental data for 20 fish species, we found size-temperature interactions in intraspecific scaling of metabolic rate to be common. Given the evidence for size-temperature interactions and the ubiquity of size structure in animal populations, we argue that accounting for size-specific temperature effects is pivotal for understanding how warming affects animal populations and communities. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qigang; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Cao, DanDan; Cheng, Luyao; Hu, Haibo; Sun, Leng; Yao, Ying; Yang, Zhiqi; Gao, Xuxu; Schroeder, Steven R.

2018-01-01

This study investigates observed and modeled contributions of global sea surface temperature (SST) to China winter climate trends in 1960-2014, including increased precipitation, warming through about 1997, and cooling since then. Observations and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations with prescribed historical SST and sea ice show that tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming and increasing rainfall causes diabatic heating that generates a tropospheric wave train with anticyclonic 500-hPa height anomaly centers in the TIO or equatorial western Pacific (TIWP) and northeastern Eurasia (EA) and a cyclonic anomaly over China, referred to as the TIWP-EA wave train. The cyclonic anomaly causes Indochina moisture convergence and southwesterly moist flow that enhances South China precipitation, while the northern anticyclone enhances cold surges, sometimes causing severe ice storms. AMIP simulations show a 1960-1997 China cooling trend by simulating increasing instead of decreasing Arctic 500-hPa heights that move the northern anticyclone into Siberia, but enlarge the cyclonic anomaly so it still simulates realistic China precipitation trend patterns. A separate idealized TIO SST warming simulation simulates the TIWP-EA feature more realistically with correct precipitation patterns and supports the TIWP-EA teleconnection as the primary mechanism for long-term increasing precipitation in South China since 1960. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments simulate a reduced TIO SST warming trend and weak precipitation trends, so the TIWP-EA feature is absent and strong drying is simulated in South China for 1960-1997. These simulations highlight the need for accurately modeled SST to correctly attribute regional climate trends.

Seasonal re-emergence of North Atlantic subsurface ocean temperature anomalies and Northern hemisphere climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinha, Bablu; Blaker, Adam; Duchez, Aurelie; Grist, Jeremy; Hewitt, Helene; Hirschi, Joel; Hyder, Patrick; Josey, Simon; Maclachlan, Craig; New, Adrian

2017-04-01

A high-resolution coupled ocean atmosphere model is used to study the effects of seasonal re-emergence of North Atlantic subsurface ocean temperature anomalies on northern hemisphere winter climate. A 50-member control simulation is integrated from September 1 to 28 February and compared with a similar ensemble with perturbed ocean initial conditions. The perturbation consists of a density-compensated subsurface (deeper than 180m) temperature anomaly corresponding to the observed subsurface temperature anomaly for September 2010, which is known to have re-emerged at the ocean surface in subsequent months. The perturbation is confined to the North Atlantic Ocean between the Equator and 65 degrees North. The model has 1/4 degree horizontal resolution in the ocean and the experiment is repeated for two atmosphere horizontal resolutions ( 60km and 25km) in order to determine whether the sensitivity of the atmosphere to re-emerging temperature anomalies is dependent on resolution. The ensembles display a wide range of reemergence behaviour, in some cases re-emergence occurs by November, in others it is delayed or does not occur at all. A wide range of amplitudes of the re-emergent temperature anomalies is observed. In cases where re-emergence occurs, there is a marked effect on both the regional (North Atlantic and Europe) and hemispheric surface pressure and temperature patterns. The results highlight a potentially important process whereby ocean memory of conditions up to a year earlier can significantly enhance seasonal forecast skill.

The responses of microbial temperature relationships to seasonal change and winter warming in a temperate grassland.

PubMed

Birgander, Johanna; Olsson, Pål Axel; Rousk, Johannes

2018-01-18

Microorganisms dominate the decomposition of organic matter and their activities are strongly influenced by temperature. As the carbon (C) flux from soil to the atmosphere due to microbial activity is substantial, understanding temperature relationships of microbial processes is critical. It has been shown that microbial temperature relationships in soil correlate with the climate, and microorganisms in field experiments become more warm-tolerant in response to chronic warming. It is also known that microbial temperature relationships reflect the seasons in aquatic ecosystems, but to date this has not been investigated in soil. Although climate change predictions suggest that temperatures will be mostly affected during winter in temperate ecosystems, no assessments exist of the responses of microbial temperature relationships to winter warming. We investigated the responses of the temperature relationships of bacterial growth, fungal growth, and respiration in a temperate grassland to seasonal change, and to 2 years' winter warming. The warming treatments increased winter soil temperatures by 5-6°C, corresponding to 3°C warming of the mean annual temperature. Microbial temperature relationships and temperature sensitivities (Q 10 ) could be accurately established, but did not respond to winter warming or to seasonal temperature change, despite significant shifts in the microbial community structure. The lack of response to winter warming that we demonstrate, and the strong response to chronic warming treatments previously shown, together suggest that it is the peak annual soil temperature that influences the microbial temperature relationships, and that temperatures during colder seasons will have little impact. Thus, mean annual temperatures are poor predictors for microbial temperature relationships. Instead, the intensity of summer heat-spells in temperate systems is likely to shape the microbial temperature relationships that govern the soil-atmosphere C

The effects of the Indo-Pacific warm pool on the stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Xin; Li, Jianping; Xie, Fei; Ding, Ruiqiang; Li, Yanjie; Zhao, Sen; Zhang, Jiankai; Li, Yang

2017-03-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) plays a key role in influencing East Asian climate, and even affects global-scale climate change. This study defines IPWP Niño and IPWP Niña events to represent the warm and cold phases of IPWP SST anomalies, respectively, and investigates the effects of these events on stratospheric circulation and temperature. Results from simulations forced by observed SST anomalies during IPWP Niño and Niña events show that the tropical lower stratosphere tends to cool during IPWP Niño events and warm during IPWP Niña events. The responses of the northern and southern polar vortices to IPWP Niño events are fairly symmetric, as both vortices are significantly warmed and weakened. However, the responses of the two polar vortices to IPWP Niña events are of opposite sign: the northern polar vortex is warmed and weakened, but the southern polar vortex is cooled and strengthened. These features are further confirmed by composite analysis using reanalysis data. A possible dynamical mechanism connecting IPWP SST to the stratosphere is suggested, in which IPWP Niño and Niña events excite teleconnections, one similar to the Pacific-North America pattern in the Northern Hemisphere and a Rossby wave train in the Southern Hemisphere, which project onto the climatological wave in the mid-high latitudes, intensifying the upward propagation of planetary waves into the stratosphere and, in turn, affecting the polar vortex.

Black sea surface temperature anomaly on 5th August 1998 and the ozone layer thickness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manev, A.; Palazov, K.; Raykov, St.; Ivanov, V.

2003-04-01

BLACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY ON 5th AUGUST 1998 AND THE OZONE LAYER THICKNESS A. Manev , K. Palazov , St. Raykov, V. Ivanov Solar Terrestrial Influences Laboratory, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences amanev@abv.bg This paper focuses on the peculiarities of the Black Sea surface temperature anomaly on 05.08.1998. Researching the daily temperature changes in a number of control fields in the course of 8-10 years, we have found hidden correlations and anomalous deviations in the sea surface temperatures on a global scale. Research proves the statistical reliability of the temperature anomaly on the entire Black Sea surface registered on 04.-05.08.1998. In the course of six days around these dates the temperatures are up to 2°C higher than the maximum temperatures in this period in the other seven years. A more detailed analysis of the dynamics of the anomaly required the investigation of five Black Sea surface characteristic zones of 75x75 km. The analysis covers the period 20 days - 10 days before and 10 days after the anomaly. Investigations aimed at interpreting the reasons for the anomalous heating of the surface waters. We have tried to analyze the correlation between sea surface temperature and the global ozone above the Black Sea by using simultaneously data from the two satellite systems NOAA and TOMS. Methods of processing and comparing the data from the two satellite systems are described. The correlation coefficients values for the five characteristic zones are very high and close, which proves that the character of the correlation ozone - sea surface temperature is the same for the entire Black Sea surface. Despite the high correlation coefficient, we have proved that causality between the two phenomena at the time of the anomaly does not exit.

Interpretation of Ground Temperature Anomalies in Hydrothermal Discharge Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, Adam N.; Lindsey, Cary R.; Fairley, Jerry P.

2017-12-01

Researchers have long noted the potential for shallow hydrothermal fluids to perturb near-surface temperatures. Several investigators have made qualitative or semiquantitative use of elevated surface temperatures; for example, in snowfall calorimetry, or for tracing subsurface flow paths. However, a quantitative framework connecting surface temperature observations with conditions in the subsurface is currently lacking. Here, we model an area of shallow subsurface flow at Burgdorf Hot Springs, a rustic commercial resort in the Payette National Forest, north of McCall, ID, USA. We calibrate the model using shallow (0.2 m depth) ground temperature measurements and overburden thickness estimates from seismic refraction studies. The calibrated model predicts negligible loss of heat energy from the laterally migrating fluids at the Burgdorf site, in spite of the fact that thermal anomalies are observed in the unconsolidated near-surface alluvium. Although elevated near-surface ground temperatures are commonly assumed to result from locally high heat flux, this conflicts with the small apparent heat loss during lateral flow inferred at the Burgdorf site. We hypothesize an alternative explanation for near-surface temperature anomalies that is only weakly dependent on heat flux, and more strongly controlled by the Biot number, a dimensionless parameter that compares the rate at which convection carries heat away from the land surface to the rate at which it is supplied by conduction to the interface.

Mechanisms of northeastern Brazil rainfall anomalies due to Southern Tropical Atlantic variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neelin, J.; Su, H.

2004-05-01

Observational studies have shown that the rainfall anomalies in eastern equatorial South America, including Nordeste Brazil, have a positive correlation with tropical southern Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Such relationships are reproduced in model simulations with the quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model (QTCM), which includes a simple land model. A suite of model ensemble experiments is analysed using observed SST over the tropical oceans, the tropical Atlantic and the tropical southern Atlantic (30S-0), respectively (with climatological SST in the remainder of the oceans). Warm tropical south Atlantic SST anomalies yield positive precipitation anomalies over the Nordeste and the southern edge of the Atlantic marine intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Mechanisms associated with moisture variations are responsible for the land precipitation changes. Increases in moisture over the Atlantic cause positive anomalies in moisture advection, spreading increased moisture downwind. Where the basic state is far from the convective stability threshold, moisture changes have little effect, but the margins of the climatological convection zone are affected. The increased moisture supply due to advection is enhanced by increases in low-level convergence required by moist static energy balances. The moisture convergence term is several times larger, but experiments altering the moisture advection confirm that the feedback is initiated by wind acting on moisture gradient. This mechanism has several features in common with the recently published "upped-ante" mechanism for El Nino impacts on this region. In that case, the moisture gradient is initiated by warm free tropospheric temperature anomalies increasing the typical value of low-level moisture required to sustain convection in the convection zones. Both mechanisms suggest the usefulness of coordinating ocean and land in situ observations of boundary layer moisture.

Optimal Detection of Global Warming using Temperature Profiles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leroy, Stephen S.

1997-01-01

Optimal fingerprinting is applied to estimate the amount of time it would take to detect warming by increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in monthly averages of temperature profiles over the Indian Ocean.

Assessing Whether Northeastern Earthquakes and Warm Springs Are Produced by the Northern Appalachian Anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrero, A. M.; Abbott, D. H.; Menke, W. H.

2017-12-01

The passive margin of eastern North America has been tectonically quiescent for >100 Ma. However, earthquakes, mantle-derived 3He in ground water and warm springs hint at continued activity. The recent proposal of asthenospheric upwelling (the Northern Appalachian Anomaly, NAA) beneath southern New England (SNE) raises the possibility that this activity is due to mantle melt. Its delivery to the lithosphere may lower density and cause stress, open pathways for 3He, and heat the crust. We examine isostatic balance along the Levin et al. [2017] receiver function profile for which crustal thickness H and compressional-to-shear velocity ratio R are published. It crosses the continental margin north of the NAA and acts as a control against which regions closer to it may be compared. We use Christensen's [1996] measurements of rocks to predict crustal density Dc from R. Isostatic balance is estimated by combining H, Dc, elevation and mantle density Dm. We assume a constant Dm, which allows us to assess the imbalance due to factors other than mantle heterogeneities. The crust along the profile is not in isostatic balance, with very large disequilibrium pressure P (up to -33.6 MPa). We use the horizontal gradient of P as a proxy for crustal shear force and compare it to seismicity. The signals show significant correlation, indicating that both the isostatic imbalance and the crustal seismicity may be due to crustal features that are thought to be mostly "fossil'; that is, originating hundreds of millions of year ago when the crust was formed. While our results do not preclude the possibility that the present-day NAA is influencing isostatic disequilibria and seismicity in SNE, they indicate that distinguishing its effect from the very large ancient causes may be problematical. We also study warm springs underlain by the NAA and show that their temperatures have been stable over the last 100 years, suggesting their importance in long-term heat transport.

Re-emerging ocean temperature anomalies in late-2010 associated with a repeat negative NAO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taws, Sarah L.; Marsh, Robert; Wells, Neil C.; Hirschi, Joël

2011-10-01

Northern Europe was influenced by consecutive episodes of extreme winter weather at the start and end of the 2010 calendar year. A tripole pattern in North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), associated with an exceptionally negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), characterized both winter periods. This pattern was largely absent at the surface during the 2010 summer season; however equivalent sub-surface temperature anomalies were preserved within the seasonal thermocline throughout the year. Here, we present evidence for the re-emergence of late-winter 2009/10 SSTAs during the following early winter season of 2010/11. The observed re-emergence contributes toward the winter-to-winter persistence of the anomalous tripole pattern. Considering the active influence of the oceans upon leading modes of atmospheric circulation over seasonal timescales, associated with the memory of large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns, the re-emergence of remnant temperature anomalies may have also contributed toward the persistence of a negative winter NAO, and the recurrence of extreme wintry conditions over the initial 2010/11 winter season.

The pelagic ecosystem in the Northern California Current off Oregon during the 2014-2016 warm anomalies within the context of the past 20 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, William T.; Fisher, Jennifer L.; Strub, P. Ted; Du, Xiuning; Risien, Craig; Peterson, Jay; Shaw, C. Tracy

2017-09-01

A warm anomaly in the upper ocean, colloquially named "the Blob," appeared in the Gulf of Alaska during the calm winter of 2013-2014, spread across the northern North Pacific (NP) Ocean, and shifted eastward and onto the Oregon shelf. At least 14 species of copepods occurred which had never been observed in shelf/slope waters off Oregon, some of which are known to have NP Gyre affinities, indicating that the source waters of the coastal "Blob" were likely of both offshore (from the west) and subtropical/tropical origin. The anomalously warm conditions were reduced during strong upwelling in spring 2015 but returned when upwelling weakened in July 2015 and transitioned to downwelling in fall 2015. The extended period of warm conditions resulted in prolonged effects on the ecosystem off central Oregon, lasting at least through 2016. Impacts to the lower trophic levels were unprecedented and include a novel plankton community composition resulting from increased copepod, diatom, and dinoflagellate species richness and increased abundance of dinoflagellates. Additionally, the multiyear warm anomalies were associated with reduced biomass of copepods and euphausiids, high abundance of larvaceans and doliolids (indictors of oligotrophic ocean conditions), and a toxic diatom bloom (Pseudo-nitzschia) throughout the California Current in 2015, thereby changing the composition of the food web that is relied upon by many commercially and ecologically important species.

Potential sources of the air masses leading to warm and cold anomalies in Moscow in summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukurov, K. A.; Semenov, V. A.

2017-11-01

For summer (June-July-August) days in 1949-2016, using the NOAA trajectory model HYSPLIT_4, the 5-day backward trajectories of the air parcels (elementary air particles) were calculated. Using the daily surface air temperatures (SAT) in summer in Moscow in 1949-2016 and the results of the backward trajectories modeling by PSCF (potential source contribution function) and CWT (concentration weighted trajectories) methods the regions where the air masses most probably hit to before its arrive into the Moscow region at the days of 20%, 10%, 5% and 2% of the strongest positive and negative anomalies of SAT in summer in Moscow. For composites of days with SAT in summer in Moscow above 90th and below the 10th percentile of the distribution function of the SAT, the field of the anomaly of atmospheric pressure at sea level relative to 1981-2010 climatology and the field of average SAT in Eurasia north of 30° N are calculated. The peculiarities of the fields associated with the strong positive and negative anomalies of SAT in summer seasons in Moscow are identified. The fields of potential sources of air parcels, mean air temperature on the path of the movement of air parcels and the average height of the backward trajectory for days with strong anomalies of SAT in summer in Moscow are compared. Possible atmospheric circulation drivers of the highest and lowest anomalies of SAT in winter in Moscow are found out.

Impact of a permanent El Niño (El Padre) and Indian Ocean Dipole in warm Pliocene climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shukla, Sonali P.; Chandler, Mark A.; Jonas, Jeff; Sohl, Linda E.; Mankoff, Ken; Dowsett, Harry J.

2009-01-01

 Pliocene sea surface temperature data, as well as terrestrial precipitation and temperature proxies, indicate warmer than modern conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific and imply permanent El Niño–like conditions with impacts similar to those of the 1997/1998 El Niño event. Here we use a general circulation model to examine the global-scale effects that result from imposing warm tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in both modern and Pliocene simulations. Observed SSTs from the 1997/1998 El Niño event were used for the anomalies and incorporate Pacific warming as well as a prominent Indian Ocean Dipole event. Both the permanent El Niño (also called El Padre) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are necessary to reproduce temperature and precipitation patterns consistent with the global distribution of Pliocene proxy data. These patterns may result from the poleward propagation of planetary waves from the strong convection centers associated with the El Niño and IOD.

Role of CO2-forced Antarctic shelf freshening on local shelf warming in an eddying global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goddard, P.; Dufour, C.; Yin, J.; Griffies, S. M.; Winton, M.

2017-12-01

Ocean warming near the Antarctic ice shelves has critical implications for future ice sheet mass loss and global sea level rise. A global climate model (GFDL CM2.6) with an eddying ocean is used to quantify and better understand the mechanisms contributing to ocean warming on the Antarctic continental shelf in an idealized 2xCO2 experiment. The results indicate that the simulated shelf region warming varies in magnitude at different locations. Relatively large warm anomalies occur both in the upper 100 m and at depth, which are controlled by different mechanisms. Here, we focus on the deep shelf warming and its relationship to shelf freshening. Under CO2-forcing, enhanced runoff from Antarctica, more regional precipitation, and reduction of sea ice contribute to the shelf freshening. The freshening increases the lateral density gradient of the Antarctic Slope Front, which can limit along-isopycnal onshore transport of heat from the Circumpolar Deep Water across the shelf break. Thus, the magnitude and location of the freshening anomalies govern the magnitude and location of onshore heat transport and deep warm anomalies. Additionally, the freshening increases vertical stratification on the shelf. The enhanced stratification reduces vertical mixing of heat associated with diffusion and gravitational instabilities, further contributing to the build-up of temperature anomalies at depth. Freshening is a crucial driver of the magnitude and location of the warming; however, other drivers influence the warming such as CO2-forced weakening of the easterly wind stress and associated shoaling of isotherms. Understanding the relative role of freshening in the inhomogeneous ocean warming of the Antarctic continental shelf would lead to better projections of future ice sheet mass loss, especially near the most vulnerable calving fronts.

Constant diurnal temperature regime alters the impact of simulated climate warming on a tropical pseudoscorpion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeh, Jeanne A.; Bonilla, Melvin M.; Su, Eleanor J.; Padua, Michael V.; Anderson, Rachel V.; Zeh, David W.

2014-01-01

Recent theory suggests that global warming may be catastrophic for tropical ectotherms. Although most studies addressing temperature effects in ectotherms utilize constant temperatures, Jensen's inequality and thermal stress considerations predict that this approach will underestimate warming effects on species experiencing daily temperature fluctuations in nature. Here, we tested this prediction in a neotropical pseudoscorpion. Nymphs were reared in control and high-temperature treatments under a constant daily temperature regime, and results compared to a companion fluctuating-temperature study. At constant temperature, pseudoscorpions outperformed their fluctuating-temperature counterparts. Individuals were larger, developed faster, and males produced more sperm, and females more embryos. The greatest impact of temperature regime involved short-term, adult exposure, with constant temperature mitigating high-temperature effects on reproductive traits. Our findings demonstrate the importance of realistic temperature regimes in climate warming studies, and suggest that exploitation of microhabitats that dampen temperature oscillations may be critical in avoiding extinction as tropical climates warm.

Heightened fire risk in Indonesia in response to increasing temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, K.; Baethgen, W.; Verchot, L. V.; Gutierrez-Velez, V.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.

2016-12-01

In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as those of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated whether fires are impacted by temperature anomalies and if so, if the responses differ under contrasting precipitation regimes. Our findings show that when the July-October dry-season is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature anomalies is similar regardless of the sign of the anomalies. In contrast, in wet condition, fire risk increases sharply when the dry season is anomalously warm. We also present a characterization of near-term regional climate projections over the next few decades and the implications of continuing global temperature increase in future fire probability in Indonesia.

Trends in continental temperature and humidity directly linked to ocean warming.

PubMed

Byrne, Michael P; O'Gorman, Paul A

2018-05-08

In recent decades, the land surface has warmed substantially more than the ocean surface, and relative humidity has fallen over land. Amplified warming and declining relative humidity over land are also dominant features of future climate projections, with implications for climate-change impacts. An emerging body of research has shown how constraints from atmospheric dynamics and moisture budgets are important for projected future land-ocean contrasts, but these ideas have not been used to investigate temperature and humidity records over recent decades. Here we show how both the temperature and humidity changes observed over land between 1979 and 2016 are linked to warming over neighboring oceans. A simple analytical theory, based on atmospheric dynamics and moisture transport, predicts equal changes in moist static energy over land and ocean and equal fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean. The theory is shown to be consistent with the observed trends in land temperature and humidity given the warming over ocean. Amplified land warming is needed for the increase in moist static energy over drier land to match that over ocean, and land relative humidity decreases because land specific humidity is linked via moisture transport to the weaker warming over ocean. However, there is considerable variability about the best-fit trend in land relative humidity that requires further investigation and which may be related to factors such as changes in atmospheric circulations and land-surface properties.

Remotely Sensed Thermal Anomalies in Western Colorado

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This layer contains the areas identified as areas of anomalous surface temperature from Landsat satellite imagery in Western Colorado. Data was obtained for two different dates. The digital numbers of each Landsat scene were converted to radiance and the temperature was calculated in degrees Kelvin and then converted to degrees Celsius for each land cover type using the emissivity of that cover type. And this process was repeated for each of the land cover types (open water, barren, deciduous forest and evergreen forest, mixed forest, shrub/scrub, grassland/herbaceous, pasture hay, and cultivated crops). The temperature of each pixel within each scene was calculated using the thermal band. In order to calculate the temperature an average emissivity value was used for each land cover type within each scene. The NLCD 2001 land cover classification raster data of the zones that cover Colorado were downloaded from USGS site and used to identify the land cover types within each scene. Areas that had temperature residual greater than 2o, and areas with temperature equal to 1o to 2o, were considered Landsat modeled very warm and warm surface exposures (thermal anomalies), respectively. Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

The Tropical Western Hemisphere Warm Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Enfield, D. B.

2002-12-01

The paper describes and examines variability of the tropical Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) of water warmer than 28.5oC. The WHWP is the second-largest tropical warm pool on Earth. Unlike the Eastern Hemisphere warm pool in the western Pacific, which straddles the equator, the WHWP is entirely north of the equator. At various stages of development the WHWP extends over parts of the eastern North Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the western tropical North Atlantic. It has a large seasonal cycle and its interannual fluctuations of area and intensity are significant. Surface heat fluxes warm the WHWP through the boreal spring to an annual maximum of SST and WHWP area in the late summer/early fall, associated with eastern North Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activities and rainfall from northern South America to the southern tier of the United States. Observations suggest that a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback operating through longwave radiation and associated cloudiness seems to operate in the WHWP. During winter preceding large warm pool, there is an alteration of the Walker and Hadley circulation cells that serves as a "tropospheric bridge" for transferring Pacific ENSO effects to the Atlantic sector and inducing initial warming of warm pool. Associated with the warm SST anomalies is a decrease in sea level pressure anomalies and an anomalous increase in atmospheric convection and cloudiness. The increase in convective activity and cloudiness results in less net longwave radiation loss from the sea surface, which then reinforces SST anomalies.

Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years. PMID:28178351

Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies.

PubMed

Zhao, Xia; Yang, Guang

2017-01-01

The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years.

Are Sierran Lakes Warming as a Result of Climate Change? The Effects of Climate Warming and Variation in Precipitation on Water Temperature in a Snowmelt-Dominated Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadro, S.; Melack, J. M.; Sickman, J. O.; Skeen, K.

2016-12-01

Water temperature regulates a broad range of fundamental ecosystem processes in lakes. While climate can be an important factor regulating lake temperatures, heterogeneity in the warming response of lakes is large, and variation in precipitation is rarely considered. We analyzed three decades of climate and water temperature data from a high-elevation catchment in the southern Sierra Nevada of California to illustrate the magnitude of warming taking place during different seasons and the role of precipitation in regulating lake temperatures. Significant climate warming trends were evident during all seasons except spring. Nighttime rates of climate warming were approximately 25% higher than daytime rates. Spatial patterns in warming were elevation dependent, with rates of temperature increase higher at sites above 2800 m.a.s.l. than below. Although interannual variation in snow deposition was high, the frequency and severity of recent droughts has contributed to a significant 3.4 mm year -1 decline in snow water equivalent over the last century. Snow accumulation, more than any other climate factor, regulated lake temperature; 94% of variation in summer lake temperature was regulated by precipitation as snow. For every 100 mm decrease in snow water equivalent there was a 0.62 ° increase in lake temperature. Drought years amplify warming in lakes by reducing the role of cold spring meltwaters in lake energy budgets and prolonging the ice-free period during which lakes warm. The combination of declining winter snowpack and warming air temperatures has the capacity to amplify the effect of climate warming on lake temperatures during drought years. Interactions among climatic factors need to be considered when evaluating ecosystem level effects, especially in mountain regions. For mountain lakes already affected by drought, continued climate warming during spring and autumn has the greatest potential to impact mean lake temperatures.

Gravity and geoid anomalies of the Philippine Sea: Evidence on the depth of compensation for the negative residual water depth anomaly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowin, C.

1982-01-01

A negative free-air gravity anomaly which occurs in the central part of the Philippine Sea was examined to determine the distribution and nature of possible regional mass excesses or deficiencies. Geoid anomalies from GEOS-3 observation were positive. A negative residual geoid anomaly consistent with the area of negative free-air gravity anomalies were found. Theoretical gravity-topography and geoid-topography admittance functions indicated that high density mantle at about 60 km dept could account for the magnitudes of the gravity and residual geoid anomaly and the 1 km residual water depth anomaly in the Philippine Sea. The negative residual depth anomaly may be compensated for by excess density in the uppermost mantle, but the residual geoid and regional free-air gravity anomalies and a slow surface wave velocity structure might result from low-density warm upper mantle material lying beneath the zone of high-density uppermost mantle. From a horizontal disk approximation, the depth of the low-density warm mantle was estimated to be on the order of 200 km.

The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio

2017-08-01

The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10-member initial-condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.

The Role of Forcing and Internal Dynamics in explaining the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goossee, Hugues; Crespin, Elisabeth; Dubinkina, Svetlana; Loutre, Marie-France; Mann, Michael E.; Renssen, Hans; Shindell, Drew

2012-01-01

Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming.

The Summertime Warming Trends in Surface Water Temperature of the Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyama, N.; Kravtsov, S.; Roebber, P.

2014-12-01

Over the past 30 years, the Laurentian Great Lakes have exhibited summertime warming trends in surface water temperature which were greater than those in surface air temperature of the surrounding land, by as much as an order of magnitude over some of the regions. For the years 1995-2012, Lake Superior exhibited the most dramatic warming trend in July-mean temperature, of 0.27±0.15 deg. C yr-1, based on the NOAA's GLSEA satellite observations. Shallower lakes, such as Lake Erie, exhibited smaller warming trends. In addition, within each lake, the warming was also the greatest in the regions of larger water depth; for example, some regions of Lake Superior deeper than 200m exhibited surface-water July-mean warming trends which exceeded 0.3 deg. C yr-1. We used a three-column lake model based on the one developed by Hostetler and Barnstein (1990) coupled with a two-layer atmospheric energy balance model to explore the physics behind these warming trends. We found that, as suggested by Austin and Colman (2007), the ice-albedo feedback plays an important role in amplifying the overlake warming trends. Our particular emphasis was on the question of whether the ice-albedo feedback alone is enough to account for lacustrine amplification of surface warming observed over the Great Lakes region. We found that the answer to this question depends on a number of model parameters, including the diffusion and light attenuation coefficients, which greatly affect the model's skill in reproducing the observed ice coverage of the deep lakes.

Global warming hiatus contributed to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia.

PubMed

Zhao, Jiuwei; Zhan, Ruifen; Wang, Yuqing

2018-04-16

The recent global warming hiatus (GWH) was characterized by a La Niña-like cooling in the tropical Eastern Pacific accompanied with the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming. Here we show that the recent GWH contributed significantly to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia since 1998. The GWH associated sea surface temperature anomalies triggered a pair of anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulations and equatorial easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which favored TC genesis and intensification over the western Northwest Pacific but suppressed TC genesis and intensification over the southeastern Northwest Pacific due to increased vertical wind shear and anticyclonic circulation anomalies. Results from atmospheric general circulation model experiments demonstrate that the Pacific La Niña-like cooling dominated the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming in contributing to the observed GWH-related anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Northwest Pacific.

Can the GEOS CCM Simulate the Temperature Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events in the Antarctic Stratosphere?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Song, I.-S.; Oman, L. D.; Newman, P. A.; Molod, A. M.; Frith, S. M.; Nielsen, J. E.

2010-01-01

"Warm pool" (WP) El Nino events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. During austral spring. WP El Nino events are associated with an enhancement of convective activity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, provoking a tropospheric planetary wave response and thus increasing planetary wave driving of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. These conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and to a weaker polar jet during austral summer, as compared with neutral ENSO years. Furthermore, this response is sensitive to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): a stronger warming is seen in WP El Nino events coincident with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as compared with WP El Nino events coincident with a westerly or neutral QBO. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is used to further explore the atmospheric response to ENSO. Time-slice simulations are forced by composited SSTs from observed WP El Nino and neutral ENSO events. The modeled eddy heat flux, temperature and wind responses to WP El Nino events are compared with observations. A new gravity wave drag scheme has been implemented in the GEOS CCM, enabling the model to produce a realistic, internally generated QBO. By repeating the above time-slice simulations with this new model version, the sensitivity of the WP El Nino response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation QBO is estimated.

Can the GEOS CCM Simulate the Temperature Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events in the Antarctic Stratosphere?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Song, I.-S.; Oman, L. D.; Newman, P. A.; Molod, A. M.; Frith, S. M.; Nielsen, J. E.

2011-01-01

"Warm pool" (WP) El Nino events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. During austral spring, WP El Nino events are associated with an enhancement of convective activity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, provoking a tropospheric planetary wave response and thus increasing planetary wave driving of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. These conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and to a weaker polar jet during austral summer, as compared with neutral ENSO years. Furthermore, this response is sensitive to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): a stronger warming is seen in WP El Nino events coincident with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as compared with WP El Nino events coincident with a westerly or neutral QBO. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is used to further explore the atmospheric response to ENSO. Time-slice simulations are forced by composited SSTs from observed NP El Nino and neutral ENSO events. The modeled eddy heat flux, temperature and wind responses to WP El Nino events are compared with observations. A new gravity wave drag scheme has been implemented in the GEOS CCM, enabling the model to produce e realistic, internally generated QBO. By repeating the above time-slice simulations with this new model version, the sensitivity of the WP El Nino response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation QBO is estimated.

Consecutive record-breaking high temperatures marked the handover from hiatus to accelerated warming

PubMed Central

Su, Jingzhi; Zhang, Renhe; Wang, Huijun

2017-01-01

Closely following the hiatus warming period, two astonishing high temperature records reached in 2014 and 2015 consecutively. To investigate the occurrence features of record-breaking high temperatures in recent years, a new index focusing the frequency of the top 10 high annual mean temperatures was defined in this study. Analyses based on this index shown that record-breaking high temperatures occurred over most regions of the globe with a salient increasing trend after 1960 s, even during the so-called hiatus period. Overlapped on the ongoing background warming trend and the interdecadal climate variabilities, the El Niño events, particularly the strong ones, can make a significant contribution to the occurrence of high temperatures on interannual timescale. High temperatures associated with El Niño events mainly occurred during the winter annual period. As the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) struggled back to its positive phase since 2014, the global warming returned back to a new accelerated warming period, marked by the record-breaking high temperatures in 2014. Intensified by the super strong El Niño, successive high records occurred in 2015 and 2016. Higher frequencies of record high temperatures would occur in the near future because the PDO tends to maintain a continuously positive phase. PMID:28256561

Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño: role of southeast tropical Indian Ocean warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zesheng; Du, Yan; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Wang, Chunzai

2018-06-01

This study investigates the influence of southeast tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming on Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño by using observations and model experiments. The results show that the SETIO SST warming in spring 2016 enhanced local convection and forced a "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern in the lower troposphere. The "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean consists of anomalous westerly flow south of the equator and anomalous easterly flow north of the equator. The anomalous easterly flow then extended eastward into the western North Pacific (WNP) and facilitates the development or the maintenance of an anomalous anticyclone over the South China Sea (SCS). Correspondingly, the eastern part of the Bay of Bengal, the SCS and the WNP suffered less rainfall. Such precipitation features and the associated "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern shifted northward about five latitudes in summer 2016. Additionally, the SETIO warming can induce local meridional circulation anomalies, which directly affect Indo-Pacific climate. Numerical model experiments further confirm that the SETIO SST warming plays an important role in modulating Indo-Pacific climate.

Spatial Correlations of Anomalies of Tropospheric Temperature and Water Vapor, Cloud Cover, and OLR with the El Nino Index

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena; Lee, Jae N.

2014-01-01

In this presentation, we will show AIRS Version-6 area weighted anomaly time series over the time period September 2002 through August 2014 of atmospheric temperature and water vapor profiles as a function of height. These anomaly time series show very different behaviors in the stratosphere and in the troposphere. Tropical mean stratospheric temperature anomaly time series are very strongly influenced by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) with large anomalies that propagate downward from 1 mb to 100 mb with a period of about two years. AIRS stratospheric temperature anomalies are in good agreement with those obtained by MLS over a common period. Tropical mean tropospheric temperature profile anomalies appear to be totally disconnected from those of the stratosphere and closely follow El Nino La Nina activity.

Retrieving Temperature Anomaly in the Global Subsurface and Deeper Ocean From Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Hua; Li, Wene; Yan, Xiao-Hai

2018-01-01

Retrieving the subsurface and deeper ocean (SDO) dynamic parameters from satellite observations is crucial for effectively understanding ocean interior anomalies and dynamic processes, but it is challenging to accurately estimate the subsurface thermal structure over the global scale from sea surface parameters. This study proposes a new approach based on Random Forest (RF) machine learning to retrieve subsurface temperature anomaly (STA) in the global ocean from multisource satellite observations including sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), sea surface salinity anomaly (SSSA), and sea surface wind anomaly (SSWA) via in situ Argo data for RF training and testing. RF machine-learning approach can accurately retrieve the STA in the global ocean from satellite observations of sea surface parameters (SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, SSWA). The Argo STA data were used to validate the accuracy and reliability of the results from the RF model. The results indicated that SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, and SSWA together are useful parameters for detecting SDO thermal information and obtaining accurate STA estimations. The proposed method also outperformed support vector regression (SVR) in global STA estimation. It will be a useful technique for studying SDO thermal variability and its role in global climate system from global-scale satellite observations.

The Effect of Ocean Currents on Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stammer, Detlef; Leeuwenburgh, Olwijn

2000-01-01

We investigate regional and global-scale correlations between observed anomalies in sea surface temperature and height. A strong agreement between the two fields is found over a broad range of latitudes for different ocean basins. Both time-longitude plots and wavenumber-frequency spectra suggest an advective forcing of SST anomalies by a first-mode baroclinic wave field on spatial scales down to 400 km and time scales as short as 1 month. Even though the magnitude of the mean background temperature gradient is determining for the effectiveness of the forcing, there is no obvious seasonality that can be detected in the amplitudes of SST anomalies. Instead, individual wave signatures in the SST can in some cases be followed over periods of two years. The phase relationship between SST and SSH anomalies is dependent upon frequency and wavenumber and displays a clear decrease of the phase lag toward higher latitudes where the two fields come into phase at low frequencies. Estimates of the damping coefficient are larger than generally obtained for a purely atmospheric feedback. From a global frequency spectrum a damping time scale of 2-3 month was found. Regionally results are very variable and range from 1 month near strong currents to 10 month at low latitudes and in the sub-polar North Atlantic. Strong agreement is found between the first global EOF modes of 10 day averaged and spatially smoothed SST and SSH grids. The accompanying time series display low frequency oscillations in both fields.

Coral-Derived Western Pacific Tropical Sea Surface Temperatures During the Last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Tianran; Cobb, Kim M.; Roff, George; Zhao, Jianxin; Yang, Hongqiang; Hu, Minhang; Zhao, Kuan

2018-04-01

Reconstructions of ocean temperatures prior to the industrial era serve to constrain natural climate variability on decadal to centennial timescales, yet relatively few such observations are available from the west Pacific Warm Pool. Here we present multiple coral-based sea surface temperature reconstructions from Yongle Atoll, in the South China Sea over the last 1,250 years (762-2013 Common Era [CE]). Reconstructed coral Sr/Ca-sea surface temperatures indicate that the "Little Ice Age (1711-1817 CE)" period was 0.7°C cooler than the "Medieval Climate Anomaly (913-1132 CE)" and that late 20th century warming of the western Pacific is likely unprecedented over the past millennium. Our findings suggest that the Western Pacific Warm Pool may have expanded (contracted) during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (Little Ice Age), leading to a strengthening (weakening) of the Asian summer monsoon, as recorded in Chinese stalagmites.

Mechanism for Surface Warming in the Equatorial Pacific during 1994-95

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rienecker, Michele M.; Borovikov, Anna; Schopf, Paul S.

1999-01-01

Mechanisms controlling the variation in sea surface temperature warm event in the equatorial Pacific were investigated through ocean model simulations. In addition, the mechanisms of the climatological SST cycle were investigated. The dominant mechanisms governing the seasonal cycle of SST vary significantly across the basin. In the western Pacific the annual cycle of SST is primarily in response to external heat flux. In the central basin the magnitude of zonal advection is comparable to that of the external heat flux. In the eastern basin the role of zonal advection is reduced and the vertical mixing is more important. In the easternmost equatorial Pacific the vertical entrainment contribution is as large as that of vertical diffusion. The model estimate of the vertical mixing contribution to the mixed layer heat budget compared well with estimates obtained by analysis of observations using the same diagnostic vertical mixing scheme. During 1994- 1995 the largest positive SST anomaly was observed in the mid-basin and was related to reduced latent heat flux due to weak surface winds. In the western basin the initial warming was related to enhanced external heating and reduced cooling effects of both vertical mixing and horizontal advection associated with weaker than usual wind stress. In the eastern Pacific where winds were not significantly anomalous throughout 1994-1995, only a moderate warm surface anomaly was detected. This is in contrast to strong El Nino events where the SST anomaly is largest in the eastern basin and, as shown by previous studies, the anomaly is due to zonal advection rather than anomalous surface heat flux. The end of the warm event was marked by cooling in July 1995 everywhere across the equatorial Pacific.

POMC neurons in heat: A link between warm temperatures and appetite suppression.

PubMed

Vicent, Maria A; Mook, Conor L; Carter, Matthew E

2018-05-01

When core body temperature increases, appetite and food consumption decline. A higher core body temperature can occur during exercise, during exposure to warm environmental temperatures, or during a fever, yet the mechanisms that link relatively warm temperatures to appetite suppression are unknown. A recent study in PLOS Biology demonstrates that neurons in the mouse hypothalamus that express pro-opiomelanocortin (POMC), a neural population well known to suppress food intake, also express a temperature-sensitive ion channel, transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 (TRPV1). Slight increases in body temperature cause a TRPV1-dependent increase in activity in POMC neurons, which suppresses feeding in mice. Taken together, this study suggests a novel mechanism linking body temperature and food-seeking behavior.

Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effects of temperature.

PubMed

Crabbe, M James C

2008-10-01

Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems. This review summarizes recent literature on the influence of temperature on coral growth, coral bleaching, and modelling the effects of high temperature on corals. Satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and coral bleaching information available on the internet is an important tool in monitoring and modelling coral responses to temperature. Within the narrow temperature range for coral growth, corals can respond to rate of temperature change as well as to temperature per se. We need to continue to develop models of how non-steady-state processes such as global warming and climate change will affect coral reefs.

Fires in Non-drought Conditions in Indonesia: the Role of Increasing Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, K.; Verchot, L. V.; Baethgen, W.; Gutierrez-Velez, V.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.; Martius, C.

2017-12-01

In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as those of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated whether fires are impacted by temperature anomalies and if so, if the responses differ under contrasting precipitation regimes. Our findings show that when the July-October dry-season is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature anomalies is similar regardless of the sign of the anomalies. In contrast, in wet condition, fire risk increases sharply when the dry season is anomalously warm. We also present a characterization of near-term regional climate projections over the next few decades and the implications of continuing global temperature increase in future fire probability in Indonesia.

Desert Amplification in a Warming Climate

PubMed Central

Zhou, Liming

2016-01-01

Here I analyze the observed and projected surface temperature anomalies over land between 50°S-50°N for the period 1950–2099 by large-scale ecoregion and find strongest warming consistently and persistently seen over driest ecoregions such as the Sahara desert and the Arabian Peninsula during various 30-year periods, pointing to desert amplification in a warming climate. This amplification enhances linearly with the global mean greenhouse gases(GHGs) radiative forcing and is attributable primarily to a stronger GHGs-enhanced downward longwave radiation forcing reaching the surface over drier ecoregions as a consequence of a warmer and thus moister atmosphere in response to increasing GHGs. These results indicate that desert amplification may represent a fundamental pattern of global warming associated with water vapor feedbacks over land in low- and mid- latitudes where surface warming rates depend inversely on ecosystem dryness. It is likely that desert amplification might involve two types of water vapor feedbacks that maximize respectively in the tropical upper troposphere and near the surface over deserts, with both being very dry and thus extremely sensitive to changes of water vapor. PMID:27538725

Effect of the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean warming since the late 1970s on wintertime Northern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and East Asian climate interdecadal changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Cuijiao; Yang, Xiu-Qun; Sun, Xuguang; Yang, Dejian; Jiang, Yiquan; Feng, Tao; Liang, Jin

2018-04-01

Observation reveals that the tropical Pacific-Indian Ocean (TPIO) has experienced a pronounced interdecadal warming since the end of the 1970s. Meanwhile, the wintertime midlatitude Northern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and East Asian climate have also undergone substantial interdecadal changes. The effect of the TPIO warming on these interdecadal changes are identified by a suite of AMIP-type atmospheric general circulation model experiments in which the model is integrated from September 1948 to December 1999 with prescribed historical, observed realistic sea surface temperature (SST) in a specific region and climatological SST elsewhere. Results show that the TPIO warming reproduces quite well the observed Northern Hemispheric wintertime interdecadal changes, suggesting that these interdecadal changes primarily originate from the TPIO warming. However, each sub-region of TPIO has its own distinct contribution. Comparatively, the tropical central-eastern Pacific (TCEP) and tropical western Pacific (TWP) warming makes dominant contributions to the observed positive-phase PNA-like interdecadal anomaly over the North Pacific sector, while the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming tends to cancel these contributions. Meanwhile, the TIO and TWP warming makes dominant contributions to the observed positive NAO-like interdecadal anomaly over the North Atlantic sector as well as the interdecadal anomalies over the Eurasian sector, although the TWP warming's contribution is relatively small. These remote responses are directly attributed to the TPIO warming-induced tropical convection, rainfall and diabatic heating increases, in which the TIO warming has the most significant effect. Moreover, the TPIO warming excites a Gill-type pattern anomaly over the tropical western Pacific, with a low-level anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the Philippine Sea. Of three sub-regions, the TIO warming dominates such a pattern, although the TWP warming tends to cancel this effect

Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability

PubMed Central

Tokinaga, Hiroki; Xie, Shang-Ping; Mukougawa, Hitoshi

2017-01-01

With amplified warming and record sea ice loss, the Arctic is the canary of global warming. The historical Arctic warming is poorly understood, limiting our confidence in model projections. Specifically, Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing. Here, we show that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variability modes is the major driver for the rapid early 20th-century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations successfully reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early 20th-century Arctic warming is associated with positive SST anomalies over the tropical and North Atlantic and a Pacific SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Atmospheric circulation changes are important for the early 20th-century Arctic warming. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air into the North American Arctic. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. Coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, negative-to-positive phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal modes. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region. PMID:28559341

Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokinaga, Hiroki; Xie, Shang-Ping; Mukougawa, Hitoshi

2017-06-01

With amplified warming and record sea ice loss, the Arctic is the canary of global warming. The historical Arctic warming is poorly understood, limiting our confidence in model projections. Specifically, Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing. Here, we show that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variability modes is the major driver for the rapid early 20th-century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations successfully reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early 20th-century Arctic warming is associated with positive SST anomalies over the tropical and North Atlantic and a Pacific SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Atmospheric circulation changes are important for the early 20th-century Arctic warming. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air into the North American Arctic. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. Coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, negative-to-positive phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal modes. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region.

Current spring warming as a driver of selection on reproductive timing in a wild passerine.

PubMed

Marrot, Pascal; Charmantier, Anne; Blondel, Jacques; Garant, Dany

2018-05-01

Evolutionary adaptation as a response to climate change is expected for fitness-related traits affected by climate and exhibiting genetic variance. Although the relationship between warmer spring temperature and earlier timing of reproduction is well documented, quantifications and predictions of the impact of global warming on natural selection acting on phenology in wild populations remain rare. If global warming affects fitness in a similar way across individuals within a population, or if fitness consequences are independent of phenotypic variation in key-adaptive traits, then no evolutionary response is expected for these traits. Here, we quantified the selection pressures acting on laying date during a 24-year monitoring of blue tits in southern Mediterranean France, a hot spot of climate warming. We explored the temporal fluctuation in annual selection gradients and we determined its temperature-related drivers. We first investigated the month-specific warming since 1970 in our study site and tested its influence on selection pressures, using a model averaging approach. Then, we quantified the selection strength associated with temperature anomalies experienced by the blue tit population. We found that natural selection acting on laying date significantly fluctuated both in magnitude and in sign across years. After identifying a significant warming in spring and summer, we showed that warmer daily maximum temperatures in April were significantly associated with stronger selection pressures for reproductive timing. Our results indicated an increase in the strength of selection by 46% for every +1°C anomaly. Our results confirm the general assumption that recent climate change translates into strong selection favouring earlier breeders in passerine birds. Our findings also suggest that differences in fitness among individuals varying in their breeding phenology increase with climate warming. Such climate-driven influence on the strength of directional

On the Relative Influences of Different Ocean Basin Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on Southern African Rainfall in 20th and 21st Century GCM Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lickley, M.; Solomon, S.

2017-12-01

Southern Africa rainfall (SAR) is generally projected to decrease during the 21st century as a result of climate change, though there is some disagreement regarding the location and magnitude of this reduction in General Circulation Models (GCMs). Here we examine the robustness of the rainfall response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Previous work argues that warmer SSTs in the Indian Ocean suppress SAR. Other studies argue that El Niños lead to suppressed SAR. We examine the SAR response to SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean, Atlantic Ocean and ENSO 3.4 region both in observations and in two large ensembles of GCMs run over the 20th and 21st century. We find that ENSO SSTs are most correlated with SAR, while correlations between SAR and the Indian Ocean are dominated by their respective responses to ENSO. This relationship appears to persist under a warming background state.

Climate anomalies associated with the occurrence of rockfalls at high-elevation in the Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paranunzio, Roberta; Laio, Francesco; Chiarle, Marta; Nigrelli, Guido; Guzzetti, Fausto

2016-09-01

Climate change is seriously affecting the cryosphere in terms, for example, of permafrost thaw, alteration of rain / snow ratio, and glacier shrinkage. There is concern about the increasing number of rockfalls at high elevation in the last decades. Nevertheless, the exact role of climate parameters in slope instability at high elevation has not been fully explored yet. In this paper, we investigate 41 rockfalls listed in different sources (newspapers, technical reports, and CNR IRPI archive) in the elevation range 1500-4200 m a.s.l. in the Italian Alps between 1997 and 2013 in the absence of an evident trigger. We apply and improve an existing data-based statistical approach to detect the anomalies of climate parameters (temperature and precipitation) associated with rockfall occurrences. The identified climate anomalies have been related to the spatiotemporal distribution of the events. Rockfalls occurred in association with significant temperature anomalies in 83 % of our case studies. Temperature represents a key factor contributing to slope failure occurrence in different ways. As expected, warm temperatures accelerate snowmelt and permafrost thaw; however, surprisingly, negative anomalies are also often associated with slope failures. Interestingly, different regional patterns emerge from the data: higher-than-average temperatures are often associated with rockfalls in the Western Alps, while in the Eastern Alps slope failures are mainly associated with colder-than-average temperatures.

Temperature alone does not explain phenological variation of diverse temperate plants under experimental warming.

PubMed

Marchin, Renée M; Salk, Carl F; Hoffmann, William A; Dunn, Robert R

2015-08-01

Anthropogenic climate change has altered temperate forest phenology, but how these trends will play out in the future is controversial. We measured the effect of experimental warming of 0.6-5.0 °C on the phenology of a diverse suite of 11 plant species in the deciduous forest understory (Duke Forest, North Carolina, USA) in a relatively warm year (2011) and a colder year (2013). Our primary goal was to dissect how temperature affects timing of spring budburst, flowering, and autumn leaf coloring for functional groups with different growth habits, phenological niches, and xylem anatomy. Warming advanced budburst of six deciduous woody species by 5-15 days and delayed leaf coloring by 18-21 days, resulting in an extension of the growing season by as much as 20-29 days. Spring temperature accumulation was strongly correlated with budburst date, but temperature alone cannot explain the diverse budburst responses observed among plant functional types. Ring-porous trees showed a consistent temperature response pattern across years, suggesting these species are sensitive to photoperiod. Conversely, diffuse-porous species responded differently between years, suggesting winter chilling may be more important in regulating budburst. Budburst of the ring-porous Quercus alba responded nonlinearly to warming, suggesting evolutionary constraints may limit changes in phenology, and therefore productivity, in the future. Warming caused a divergence in flowering times among species in the forest community, resulting in a longer flowering season by 10-16 days. Temperature was a good predictor of flowering for only four of the seven species studied here. Observations of interannual temperature variability overpredicted flowering responses in spring-blooming species, relative to our warming experiment, and did not consistently predict even the direction of flowering shifts. Experiments that push temperatures beyond historic variation are indispensable for improving predictions of

Spring Soil Temperature Anomalies over Tibetan Plateau and Summer Droughts/Floods in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Y.; Li, W.; LI, Q.; Diallo, I.; Chu, P. C.; Guo, W.; Fu, C.

2017-12-01

Recurrent extreme climate events, such as droughts and floods, are important features of the climate of East Asia, especially over the Yangtze River basin. Many studies have attributed these episodes to variability and anomaly of global sea surface temperatures (SST) anomaly. In addition, snow in the Tibetan Plateau has also been considered as one of the factors affecting the Asian monsoon variability. However, studies have consistently shown that SST along is unable to explain the extreme climate events fully and snow has difficulty to use as a predictor. Remote effects of observed large-scale land surface temperature (LST) and subsurface temperature variability in Tibetan Plateau (TP) on East Asian regional droughts/floods, however, have been largely ignored. We conjecture that a temporally filtered response to snow anomalies may be preserved in the LST anomaly. In this study, evidence from climate observations and model simulations addresses the LST/SUBT effects. The Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) of observational data identifies that a pronounce spring LST anomaly pattern over TP is closely associated with precipitation anomalies in East Asia with a dipole pattern, i.e., negative/positive TP spring LST anomaly is associated with the summer drought/flood over the region south of the Yangtze River and wet/dry conditions to the north of the Yangtze River. Climate models were used to demonstrate a causal relationship between spring cold LST anomaly in the TP and the severe 2003 drought over the southern part of the Yangtze River in eastern Asia. This severe drought resulted in 100 x 106 kg crop yield losses and an economic loss of 5.8 billion Chinese Yuan. The modeling study suggests that the LST effect produced about 58% of observed precipitation deficit; while the SST effect produced about 32% of the drought conditions. Meanwhile, the LST and SST effects also simulated the observed flood over to the north of the Yangtze River. This suggests that inclusion of

PDO and ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Control Grassland Plant Production across the United States Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parton, W. J.; Del Grosso, S. J.; Smith, W. K.; Chen, M.

2017-12-01

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are multi-annual to multi-decadal climate patterns defined by ocean temperature anomalies that can strongly modulate climate variability. Here we evaluated the impacts of PDO and ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on observed grassland above ground plant production (ANPP; 1940 to 2015), spring (April to July) cumulative actual evapotranspiration (iAET; 1900 to 2015) , and satellite-derived growing season (April to October) cumulative normalized difference vegetation index (iNDVI 1982 to 2015) across the United States Great Plains. The results showed that grassland ANPP is well correlated to iAET (r2=0.69) and iNDVI (r2=0.50 to 0.70) for the Cheyenne Wyoming and Northeastern Colorado long-term ANPP sites. At the site scale, during the negative phase of the PDO, we find ANPP is much lower (25%) and that variability of iAET, iNDVI, and ANPP are much higher (2 to 3 times) compared to the warm phase PDO. Further, we find there is a high frequency of below normal iAET when PDO and ENSO SST's are both negative, while there is a high frequency of above normal iAET when PDO and ENSO values are positive. At the regional scale, iAET, iNDVI, and modeled ANPP data sets show that plant production and iAET values are high in the southern Great Plains and low in the northern Great Plains when spring PDO and ENSO are both in the positive phase, while the opposite pattern is observed when both PDO and ENSO are both in the negative phase. Variability of iAET, iNDVI, and modeled ANPP are much higher in the central Great Plains during the negative phase PDO. We demonstrate clearly that the PDO and ENSO SST anomalies have large impacts on mean and variability of grassland plant production across the Great Plains.

Localized rapid warming of West Antarctic subsurface waters by remote winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, Paul; Holmes, Ryan M.; Hogg, Andrew Mcc.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Stewart, Kial D.; England, Matthew H.

2017-08-01

The highest rates of Antarctic glacial ice mass loss are occurring to the west of the Antarctica Peninsula in regions where warming of subsurface continental shelf waters is also largest. However, the physical mechanisms responsible for this warming remain unknown. Here we show how localized changes in coastal winds off East Antarctica can produce significant subsurface temperature anomalies (>2 °C) around much of the continent. We demonstrate how coastal-trapped barotropic Kelvin waves communicate the wind disturbance around the Antarctic coastline. The warming is focused on the western flank of the Antarctic Peninsula because the circulation induced by the coastal-trapped waves is intensified by the steep continental slope there, and because of the presence of pre-existing warm subsurface water offshore. The adjustment to the coastal-trapped waves shoals the subsurface isotherms and brings warm deep water upwards onto the continental shelf and closer to the coast. This result demonstrates the vulnerability of the West Antarctic region to a changing climate.

New Peak Temperature Constraints Using RSCM Geothermometry on Lucia Subterrane in Franciscan Complex (California, USA): Detection of Thermal Anomalies in Gold-Bearing Quartz Veins Surrounding.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahfid, A.; Delchini, S.; Lacroix, B.

2015-12-01

The occurrence of deposits hosted by carbonaceous materials-rich metasediments is widespread. Therefore, we aims in this study to investigate the potential of the Raman Spectroscopy of Carbonaceous Material (RSCM) geothermometry to detect thermal anomalies in hydrothermal ore deposits environment and to demonstrate the ability of warm fluids, migrating through the sedimentary sequence to locally disturb the thermal gradient and associated peak temperatures. For this purpose, we have chosen the Lucia subterrane in the Franciscan Complex (California, USA), which includes gold-bearing quartz veins that witness a hydrothermal overprint (Underwood et al., 1995).The sediments in this zone essentially comprise greywacke and shale-matrix mélange (e.g. Frey and Robinson, 1999), which have undergone high-pressure, low-temperature metamorphism. The thermal history of the Lucia subterrane has been previously proposed by Underwood et al. (1995), essentially using vitrinite reflectance method (Rm). Rm values increase from the south to the north; they vary between 0.9 and 3.7 % (~150-280°C). All these results suggest that the Lucia subterrane underwent a regional increase of thermal gradient toward the north. Anomalous Rm values from 4.5% to 4.9% (~305-315°C) are recorded near Cape San Martin. These highest temperatures estimated are likely, associated with a late hydrothermal event (Underwood et al., 1995). Estimated Raman temperatures 1) confirmed the increase in the metamorphic grade towards the north already shown by Underwood et al. (1995), using classical methods like mineralogy and vitrinite reflectance and 2) exhibit anomalous values (temperatures reach 350°C). These anomalies are probably due to the later hydrothermal event. This result suggests that RSCM could be used as a reliable tool to determine thermal anomalies caused by hot fluid-flow.

Temperature Anomalies from the AIRS Product in Giovanni for the Climate Community

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ding, Feng; Hearty, Thomas J.; Wei, Jennifer; Theobald, Michael; Vollmer, Bruce; Seiler, Edward; Meyer, David

2018-01-01

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) mission began with the launch of Aqua in 2002. Over 15 years of AIRS products have been used by the climate research and application communities. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), in collaboration with NASA Sounder Team at JPL, provides processing, archiving, and distribution services for NASA sounders: the present Aqua AIRS mission and the succeeding Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (SNPP) Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) mission. We generated a Multi-year Monthly Mean and Anomaly product using 14 years of AIRS standard monthly product. The product includes Air Temperature at the Surface and Surface Skin Temperature, both in Ascending/Daytime and Descending/Nighttime mode. The temperature variables and their anomalies are deployed to Giovanni, a Web-based application developed by the GES DISC. Giovanni provides a simple and intuitive way to visualize, analyze, and access vast amounts of Earth science remote sensing data without having to download the data. It is also a powerful tool that stakeholders can use for decision support in planning and preparing for increased climate variability. In this presentation, we demonstrate the functions in Giovanni with use cases employing AIRS Multi-year Monthly Mean and Anomaly variables.

Field warming experiments shed light on the wheat yield response to temperature in China

PubMed Central

Zhao, Chuang; Piao, Shilong; Huang, Yao; Wang, Xuhui; Ciais, Philippe; Huang, Mengtian; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Peng, Shushi

2016-01-01

Wheat growth is sensitive to temperature, but the effect of future warming on yield is uncertain. Here, focusing on China, we compiled 46 observations of the sensitivity of wheat yield to temperature change (SY,T, yield change per °C) from field warming experiments and 102 SY,T estimates from local process-based and statistical models. The average SY,T from field warming experiments, local process-based models and statistical models is −0.7±7.8(±s.d.)% per °C, −5.7±6.5% per °C and 0.4±4.4% per °C, respectively. Moreover, SY,T is different across regions and warming experiments indicate positive SY,T values in regions where growing-season mean temperature is low, and water supply is not limiting, and negative values elsewhere. Gridded crop model simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project appear to capture the spatial pattern of SY,T deduced from warming observations. These results from local manipulative experiments could be used to improve crop models in the future. PMID:27853151

Occurrence and Detectability of Thermal Anomalies on Europa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayne, Paul O.; Christensen, Philip R.; Spencer, John R.; Abramov, Oleg; Howett, Carly; Mellon, Michael; Nimmo, Francis; Piqueux, Sylvain; Rathbun, Julie A.

2017-10-01

Endogenic activity is likely on Europa, given its young surface age of and ongoing tidal heating by Jupiter. Temperature is a fundamental signature of activity, as witnessed on Enceladus, where plumes emanate from vents with strongly elevated temperatures. Recent observations suggest the presence of similar water plumes at Europa. Even if plumes are uncommon, resurfacing may produce elevated surface temperatures, perhaps due to near-surface liquid water. Detecting endogenic activity on Europa is one of the primary mission objectives of NASA’s planned Europa Clipper flyby mission.Here, we use a probabilistic model to assess the likelihood of detectable thermal anomalies on the surface of Europa. The Europa Thermal Emission Imaging System (E-THEMIS) investigation is designed to characterize Europa’s thermal behavior and identify any thermal anomalies due to recent or ongoing activity. We define “detectability” on the basis of expected E-THEMIS measurements, which include multi-spectral infrared emission, both day and night.Thermal anomalies on Europa may take a variety of forms, depending on the resurfacing style, frequency, and duration of events: 1) subsurface melting due to hot spots, 2) shear heating on faults, and 3) eruptions of liquid water or warm ice on the surface. We use numerical and analytical models to estimate temperatures for these features. Once activity ceases, lifetimes of thermal anomalies are estimated to be 100 - 1000 yr. On average, Europa’s 10 - 100 Myr surface age implies a resurfacing rate of ~3 - 30 km2/yr. The typical size of resurfacing features determines their frequency of occurrence. For example, if ~100 km2 chaos features dominate recent resurfacing, we expect one event every few years to decades. Smaller features, such as double-ridges, may be active much more frequently. We model each feature type as a statistically independent event, with probabilities weighted by their observed coverage of Europa’s surface. Our results

Structure and Dynamics of Decadal Anomalies in the Wintertime Midlatitude North Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, J.

2017-12-01

The structure and dynamics of decadal anomalies in the wintertime midlatitude North Pacific ocean- atmosphere system are examined in this study, using the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis, HadISST SST and Simple Ocean Data Assimilation data for 1960-2010. The midlatitude decadal anomalies associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are identified, being characterized by an equivalent barotropic atmospheric low (high) pressure over a cold (warm) oceanic surface. Such a unique configuration of decadal anomalies can be maintained by an unstable ocean-atmosphere interaction mechanism in the midlatitudes, which is hypothesized as follows. Associated with a warm PDO phase, an initial midlatitude surface westerly anomaly accompanied with intensified Aleutian low tends to force a negative SST anomaly by increasing upward surface heat fluxes and driving southward Ekman current anomaly. The SST cooling tends to increase the meridional SST gradient, thus enhancing the subtropical oceanic front. As an adjustment of the atmospheric boundary layer to the enhanced oceanic front, the low-level atmospheric meridional temperature gradient and thus the low-level atmospheric baroclinicity tend to be strengthened, inducing more active transient eddy activities that increase transient eddy vorticity forcing. The vorticity forcing that dominates the total atmospheric forcing tends to produce an equivalent barotropic atmospheric low pressure north of the initial westerly anomaly, intensifying the initial anomalies of the midlatitude surface westerly and Aleutian low. Therefore, it is suggested that the midlatitude ocean-atmosphere interaction can provide a positive feedback mechanism for the development of initial anomaly, in which the oceanic front and the atmospheric transient eddy are the indispensable ingredients. Such a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback mechanism is fundamentally responsible for the observed decadal anomalies in the midlatitude North Pacific ocean

Reduced diurnal temperature range does not change warming impacts on ecosystem carbon balance of Mediterranean grassland mesocosms

DOE PAGES

Phillips, Claire L.; Gregg, Jillian W.; Wilson, John K.

2011-11-01

Daily minimum temperature (T min) has increased faster than daily maximum temperature (T max) in many parts of the world, leading to decreases in diurnal temperature range (DTR). Projections suggest these trends are likely to continue in many regions, particularly northern latitudes and in arid regions. Despite wide speculation that asymmetric warming has different impacts on plant and ecosystem production than equal-night-and-day warming, there has been little direct comparison of these scenarios. Reduced DTR has also been widely misinterpreted as a result of night-only warming, when in fact T min occurs near dawn, indicating higher morning as well as nightmore » temperatures. We report on the first experiment to examine ecosystem-scale impacts of faster increases in T min than T max, using precise temperature controls to create realistic diurnal temperature profiles with gradual day-night temperature transitions and elevated early morning as well as night temperatures. Studying a constructed grassland ecosystem containing species native to Oregon, USA, we found the ecosystem lost more carbon at elevated than ambient temperatures, but was unaffected by the 3ºC difference in DTR between symmetric warming (constantly ambient +3.5ºC) and asymmetric warming (dawn T min=ambient +5ºC, afternoon T max= ambient +2ºC). Reducing DTR had no apparent effect on photosynthesis, likely because temperatures were most different in the morning and late afternoon when light was low. Respiration was also similar in both warming treatments, because respiration temperature sensitivity was not sufficient to respond to the limited temperature differences between asymmetric and symmetric warming. We concluded that changes in daily mean temperatures, rather than changes in T min/T max, were sufficient for predicting ecosystem carbon fluxes in this reconstructed Mediterranean grassland system.« less

Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.

2017-12-01

By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that

Coherent changes of wintertime surface air temperatures over North Asia and North America.

PubMed

Yu, Bin; Lin, Hai

2018-03-29

The surface temperature variance and its potential change with global warming are most prominent in winter over Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitudes. Consistent wintertime surface temperature variability has been observed over large areas in Eurasia and North America on a broad range of time scales. However, it remains a challenge to quantify where and how the coherent change of temperature anomalies occur over the two continents. Here we demonstrate the coherent change of wintertime surface temperature anomalies over North Asia and the central-eastern parts of North America for the period from 1951 to 2015. This is supported by the results from the empirical orthogonal function analysis of surface temperature and temperature trend anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere extratropical lands and the timeseries analysis of the regional averaged temperature anomalies over North Asia and the Great Plains and Great Lakes. The Asian-Bering-North American (ABNA) teleconnection provides a pathway to connect the regional temperature anomalies over the two continents. The ABNA is also responsible for the decadal variation of the temperature relationship between North Asia and North America.

Localized Rapid Warming of West Antarctic Subsurface Waters by Remote Winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffies, S. M.; Spence, P.; Holmes, R.; Hogg, A. M.; Stewart, K. D.; England, M. H.

2017-12-01

The largest rates of Antarctic glacial ice mass loss are occurring tothe west of the Antarctica Peninsula in regions where warming ofsubsurface continental shelf waters is also largest. However, thephysical mechanisms responsible for this warming remain unknown. Herewe show how localized changes in coastal winds off East Antarctica canproduce significant subsurface temperature anomalies (>2C) around theentire continent. We demonstrate how coastal-trapped Kelvin wavescommunicate the wind disturbance around the Antarctic coastline. Thewarming is focused on the western flank of the Antarctic Peninsulabecause the anomalous circulation induced by the coastal-trapped wavesis intensified by the steep continental slope there, and because ofthe presence of pre-existing warm subsurface water. Thecoastal-trapped waves leads to an adjustment of the flow that shoalsisotherms and brings warm deep water upwards onto the continentalshelf and closer to the coast. This result demonstrates the uniquevulnerability of the West Antarctic region to a changing climate.

The seasonal response of the Held-Suarez climate model to prescribed ocean temperature anomalies. II - Dynamical analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, T. J.

1984-01-01

The heating associated with equatorial, subtropical, and midlatitude ocean temperature anamolies in the Held-Suarez climate model is analyzed. The local and downstream response to the anomalies is analyzed, first by examining the seasonal variation in heating associated with each ocean temperature anomaly, and then by combining knowledge of the heating with linear dynamical theory in order to develop a more comprehensive explanation of the seasonal variation in local and downstream atmospheric response to each anomaly. The extent to which the linear theory of propagating waves can assist the interpretation of the remote cross-latitudinal response of the model to the ocean temperature anomalies is considered. Alternative hypotheses that attempt to avoid the contradictions inherent in a strict application of linear theory are investigated, and the impact of sampling errors on the assessment of statistical significance is also examined.

The relationship between surface topography, gravity anomalies, and temperature structure of convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parsons, B.; Daly, S.

1983-01-01

Consideration is given to the relationship between the temperature structure of mantle convection and the resulting surface topography and gravity anomalies, which are used in its investigation. Integral expressions relating the three variables as a function of wavelength are obtained with the use of Green's function solutions to the equations of motion for the case of constant-viscosity convection in a plane layer subject to a uniform gravitational field. The influence of the boundary conditions, particularly at large wavelengths, is pointed out, and surface topographies and gravity produced by convection are illustrated for a number of simple temperature distributions. It is shown that the upper thermal boundary layer plays an important role in determining the surface observables, while temperatures near the bottom of the layer affect mainly that boundary. This result is consistent with an explanation of geoid anomalies over mid-ocean swells in terms of convection beneath the lithosphere.

Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice-shelf history.

PubMed

Mulvaney, Robert; Abram, Nerilie J; Hindmarsh, Richard C A; Arrowsmith, Carol; Fleet, Louise; Triest, Jack; Sime, Louise C; Alemany, Olivier; Foord, Susan

2012-09-06

Rapid warming over the past 50 years on the Antarctic Peninsula is associated with the collapse of a number of ice shelves and accelerating glacier mass loss. In contrast, warming has been comparatively modest over West Antarctica and significant changes have not been observed over most of East Antarctica, suggesting that the ice-core palaeoclimate records available from these areas may not be representative of the climate history of the Antarctic Peninsula. Here we show that the Antarctic Peninsula experienced an early-Holocene warm period followed by stable temperatures, from about 9,200 to 2,500 years ago, that were similar to modern-day levels. Our temperature estimates are based on an ice-core record of deuterium variations from James Ross Island, off the northeastern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. We find that the late-Holocene development of ice shelves near James Ross Island was coincident with pronounced cooling from 2,500 to 600 years ago. This cooling was part of a millennial-scale climate excursion with opposing anomalies on the eastern and western sides of the Antarctic Peninsula. Although warming of the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula began around 600 years ago, the high rate of warming over the past century is unusual (but not unprecedented) in the context of natural climate variability over the past two millennia. The connection shown here between past temperature and ice-shelf stability suggests that warming for several centuries rendered ice shelves on the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula vulnerable to collapse. Continued warming to temperatures that now exceed the stable conditions of most of the Holocene epoch is likely to cause ice-shelf instability to encroach farther southward along the Antarctic Peninsula.

Subseasonal Reversal of East Asian Surface Temperature Variability in Winter 2014/15

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xinping; Li, Fei; He, Shengping; Wang, Huijun

2018-06-01

Although there has been a considerable amount of research conducted on the East Asian winter-mean climate, subseasonal surface air temperature (SAT) variability reversals in the early and late winter remain poorly understood. In this study, we focused on the recent winter of 2014/15, in which warmer anomalies dominated in January and February but colder conditions prevailed in December. Moreover, Arctic sea-ice cover (ASIC) in September-October 2014 was lower than normal, and warmer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies occurred in the Niño4 region in winter, together with a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO|+) phase. Using observational data and CMIP5 historical simulations, we investigated the PDO|+ phase modulation upon the winter warm Niño4 phase (autumn ASIC reduction) influence on the subseasonal SAT variability of East Asian winter. The results show that, under a PDO|+ phase modulation, warm Niño4 SST anomalies are associated with a subseasonal delay of tropical surface heating and subsequent Hadley cell and Ferrel cell intensification in January-February, linking the tropical and midlatitude regions. Consistently, the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) is significantly decelerated in January-February and hence promotes the warm anomalies over East Asia. Under the PDO|+ phase, the decrease in ASIC is related to cold SST anomalies in the western North Pacific, which increase the meridional temperature gradient and generate an accelerated and westward-shifted EAJS in December. The westward extension of the EAJS is responsible for the eastward-propagating Rossby waves triggered by declining ASIC and thereby favors the connection between ASIC and cold conditions over East Asia.

Variable Responses of Benthic Communities to Anomalously Warm Sea Temperatures on a High-Latitude Coral Reef

PubMed Central

Bryson, Mitch; Hovey, Renae; Figueira, Will F.; Williams, Stefan B.; Pizarro, Oscar; Harborne, Alastair R.; Byrne, Maria

2014-01-01

High-latitude reefs support unique ecological communities occurring at the biogeographic boundaries between tropical and temperate marine ecosystems. Due to their lower ambient temperatures, they are regarded as potential refugia for tropical species shifting poleward due to rising sea temperatures. However, acute warming events can cause rapid shifts in the composition of high-latitude reef communities, including range contractions of temperate macroalgae and bleaching-induced mortality in corals. While bleaching has been reported on numerous high-latitude reefs, post-bleaching trajectories of benthic communities are poorly described. Consequently, the longer-term effects of thermal anomalies on high-latitude reefs are difficult to predict. Here, we use an autonomous underwater vehicle to conduct repeated surveys of three 625 m2 plots on a coral-dominated high-latitude reef in the Houtman Abrolhos Islands, Western Australia, over a four-year period spanning a large-magnitude thermal anomaly. Quantification of benthic communities revealed high coral cover (>70%, comprising three main morphospecies) prior to the bleaching event. Plating Montipora was most susceptible to bleaching, but in the plot where it was most abundant, coral cover did not change significantly because of post-bleaching increases in branching Acropora. In the other two plots, coral cover decreased while macroalgal cover increased markedly. Overall, coral cover declined from 73% to 59% over the course of the study, while macroalgal cover increased from 11% to 24%. The significant differences in impacts and post-bleaching trajectories among plots underline the importance of understanding the underlying causes of such variation to improve predictions of how climate change will affect reefs, especially at high-latitudes. PMID:25426718

Variable responses of benthic communities to anomalously warm sea temperatures on a high-latitude coral reef.

PubMed

Bridge, Tom C L; Ferrari, Renata; Bryson, Mitch; Hovey, Renae; Figueira, Will F; Williams, Stefan B; Pizarro, Oscar; Harborne, Alastair R; Byrne, Maria

2014-01-01

High-latitude reefs support unique ecological communities occurring at the biogeographic boundaries between tropical and temperate marine ecosystems. Due to their lower ambient temperatures, they are regarded as potential refugia for tropical species shifting poleward due to rising sea temperatures. However, acute warming events can cause rapid shifts in the composition of high-latitude reef communities, including range contractions of temperate macroalgae and bleaching-induced mortality in corals. While bleaching has been reported on numerous high-latitude reefs, post-bleaching trajectories of benthic communities are poorly described. Consequently, the longer-term effects of thermal anomalies on high-latitude reefs are difficult to predict. Here, we use an autonomous underwater vehicle to conduct repeated surveys of three 625 m(2) plots on a coral-dominated high-latitude reef in the Houtman Abrolhos Islands, Western Australia, over a four-year period spanning a large-magnitude thermal anomaly. Quantification of benthic communities revealed high coral cover (>70%, comprising three main morphospecies) prior to the bleaching event. Plating Montipora was most susceptible to bleaching, but in the plot where it was most abundant, coral cover did not change significantly because of post-bleaching increases in branching Acropora. In the other two plots, coral cover decreased while macroalgal cover increased markedly. Overall, coral cover declined from 73% to 59% over the course of the study, while macroalgal cover increased from 11% to 24%. The significant differences in impacts and post-bleaching trajectories among plots underline the importance of understanding the underlying causes of such variation to improve predictions of how climate change will affect reefs, especially at high-latitudes.

Irrigation offsets wheat yield reductions from warming temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Hendricks, Nathan

2017-11-01

Temperature increases due to climate change are expected to cause substantial reductions in global wheat yields. However, uncertainty remains regarding the potential role for irrigation as an adaptation strategy to offset heat impacts. Here we utilize over 7000 observations spanning eleven Kansas field-trial locations, 180 varieties, and 29 years to show that irrigation significantly reduces the negative impact of warming temperatures on winter wheat yields. Dryland wheat yields are estimated to decrease about eight percent for every one-degree Celsius increase in temperature, yet irrigation completely offsets this negative impact in our sample. As in previous studies, we find that important interactions exist between heat stress and precipitation for dryland production. Here, uniquely, we observe both dryland and irrigated trials side-by-side at the same locations and find that precipitation does not provide the same reduction in heat stress as irrigation. This is likely to be because the timing, intensity, and volume of water applications influence wheat yields, so the ability to irrigate—rather than relying on rainfall alone—has a stronger influence on heat stress. We find evidence of extensive differences of water-deficit stress impacts across varieties. This provides some evidence of the potential for adapting to hotter and drier climate conditions using optimal variety selection. Overall, our results highlight the critical role of water management for future global food security. Water scarcity not only reduces crop yields through water-deficit stress, but also amplifies the negative effects of warming temperatures.

Asymmetric effects of daytime and night-time warming on Northern Hemisphere vegetation.

PubMed

Peng, Shushi; Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Myneni, Ranga B; Chen, Anping; Chevallier, Frédéric; Dolman, Albertus J; Janssens, Ivan A; Peñuelas, Josep; Zhang, Gengxin; Vicca, Sara; Wan, Shiqiang; Wang, Shiping; Zeng, Hui

2013-09-05

Temperature data over the past five decades show faster warming of the global land surface during the night than during the day. This asymmetric warming is expected to affect carbon assimilation and consumption in plants, because photosynthesis in most plants occurs during daytime and is more sensitive to the maximum daily temperature, Tmax, whereas plant respiration occurs throughout the day and is therefore influenced by both Tmax and the minimum daily temperature, Tmin. Most studies of the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming, however, ignore this asymmetric forcing effect on vegetation growth and carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes. Here we analyse the interannual covariations of the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, an indicator of vegetation greenness) with Tmax and Tmin over the Northern Hemisphere. After removing the correlation between Tmax and Tmin, we find that the partial correlation between Tmax and NDVI is positive in most wet and cool ecosystems over boreal regions, but negative in dry temperate regions. In contrast, the partial correlation between Tmin and NDVI is negative in boreal regions, and exhibits a more complex behaviour in dry temperate regions. We detect similar patterns in terrestrial net CO2 exchange maps obtained from a global atmospheric inversion model. Additional analysis of the long-term atmospheric CO2 concentration record of the station Point Barrow in Alaska suggests that the peak-to-peak amplitude of CO2 increased by 23 ± 11% for a +1 °C anomaly in Tmax from May to September over lands north of 51° N, but decreased by 28 ± 14% for a +1 °C anomaly in Tmin. These lines of evidence suggest that asymmetric diurnal warming, a process that is currently not taken into account in many global carbon cycle models, leads to a divergent response of Northern Hemisphere vegetation growth and carbon sequestration to rising temperatures.

Precipitation Anomalies in Southern Brazil Associated with El Niño and La Niña Events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimm, Alice M.; Ferraz, Simone E. T.; Gomes, Júlio

1998-11-01

The impact of El Niño and La Niña events (warm and cold phases of the Southern Oscillation) on rainfall over southern Brazil is investigated through the use of a large dataset of monthly precipitation from 250 stations. This region is partly dominated by rough orography and presents different climatic regimes of rainfall. As previous global studies on Southern Oscillation-precipitation relationships used data from only two stations in southern Brazil, this region was not included in the area of consistent Southern Oscillation-related precipitation in southeastern South America. The present analysis is based on the method by Ropelewski and Halpert, the sensitivity of which is assessed for this region. The spatial structure of the rainfall anomalies associated with warm (cold) events is analyzed and subregions with coherent anomalies are determined. Their distribution indicates the influence of relief, latitude, and proximity to the ocean. These areas are subjected to further analysis to determine the seasons of largest anomalies and assess their consistency during warm (cold) events.The whole of southern Brazil was found to have strong and consistent precipitation anomalies associated with those events. Their magnitude is even larger than in Argentina and Uruguay. All of the subregions have consistent wet anomalies during the austral spring of the warm event year, with a pronounced peak in November. The southeastern part also shows a consistent tendency to higher than average rainfall during the austral winter of the following year. There is also a consistent tendency to dryness in the year before a warm event. During the spring of cold event years strong consistent dry anomalies prevail over the whole region, also with maximum magnitude in November. They are even stronger and more consistent than the wet anomalies in warm event years. Consistent anomalies do not occur over large areas in the years before and after cold events. The wet anomalies during the austral

Sensitivity of mountain permafrost to extreme climatic events; a case study from the 2006-2007 air temperature anomaly in southern Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isaksen, K.; Ødegård, R. S.; Eiken, T.; Sollid, J. L.

2009-04-01

An unusual synoptic situation with long periods of warm and humid southerlies produced record breaking temperatures in southern Norway during the period from July 2006 to June 2007, particularly late summer, autumn and early winter 2006-2007. For the one-year period, the temperature anomaly was 2.5-3.0 °C above the 1961-1990 average, with highest anomalies in the eastern and northern parts of southern Norway. The homogenised mean air temperature for the station Kjøremsgrende (62°06'N, 9°03'E, 626 m a.s.l.) was 2.9 °C above the 1961-1990 average. This is the warmest since records began in 1867. The most striking month was December 2006, when mean air temperature was 7.5 °C above the 1961-1990 average. At the official mountain station Fokstugu (62°11'N, 9°29'E, 972 m a.s.l.), on Dovrefjell, there were no days with temperatures below freezing in August and September. The late summer heat had a particularly strong impact on snow, ice and frozen ground in the mountains of southern Norway. Official mass balance investigations performed on three glaciers showed that they had their most negative net balances ever measured. Analysis of a leather shoe that melted out from a perennial snowfield at 2000 meters altitude was dated back 3,400 years old. Several complete arrows and a spade made from wood were also found in front of perennial snowfields. This study seeks to analyse the impact of the 2006-2007 air temperature anomaly on the ground thermal regime, including permafrost and seasonal frost, in the high mountains of Jotunheimen and Dovrefjell in southern Norway. In Jotunheimen, ground temperature data are monitored in a 129 m deep permafrost borehole, located at Juvvasshøe (61°40'N, 8°22'E, 1894 m a.s.l.), established within the PACE-project (Permafrost and Climate in Europe). On Dovrefjell ground temperatures are measured in a transect from deep seasonal frost at 1039 m a.s.l. to discontinuous mountain permafrost at 1505 m a.s.l. in 11 boreholes, 9 m deep

Global Warming Estimation From Microwave Sounding Unit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Dalu, G.

1998-01-01

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 data sets, collected from sequential, polar-orbiting, Sun-synchronous National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operational satellites, contain systematic calibration errors that are coupled to the diurnal temperature cycle over the globe. Since these coupled errors in MSU data differ between successive satellites, it is necessary to make compensatory adjustments to these multisatellite data sets in order to determine long-term global temperature change. With the aid of the observations during overlapping periods of successive satellites, we can determine such adjustments and use them to account for the coupled errors in the long-term time series of MSU Ch 2 global temperature. In turn, these adjusted MSU Ch 2 data sets can be used to yield global temperature trend. In a pioneering study, Spencer and Christy (SC) (1990) developed a procedure to derive the global temperature trend from MSU Ch 2 data. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedure, the magnitude of the coupled errors is not determined explicitly. Furthermore, based on some assumptions, these coupled errors are eliminated in three separate steps. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedures. Based on our analysis, we find there is a global warming of 0.23+/-0.12 K between 1980 and 1991. Also, in this study, the time series of global temperature anomalies constructed by removing the global mean annual temperature cycle compares favorably with a similar

Effects of copper, hypoxia and acute temperature shifts on mitochondrial oxidation in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) acclimated to warm temperature.

PubMed

Sappal, Ravinder; Fast, Mark; Stevens, Don; Kibenge, Fred; Siah, Ahmed; Kamunde, Collins

2015-12-01

Temperature fluctuations, hypoxia and metals pollution frequently occur simultaneously or sequentially in aquatic systems and their interactions may confound interpretation of their biological impacts. With a focus on energy homeostasis, the present study examined how warm acclimation influences the responses and interactions of acute temperature shift, hypoxia and copper (Cu) exposure in fish. Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) were acclimated to cold (11°C; control) and warm (20°C) temperature for 3 weeks followed by exposure to environmentally realistic levels of Cu and hypoxia for 24h. Subsequently, mitochondrial electron transport system (ETS) respiratory activity supported by complexes I-IV (CI-IV), plasma metabolites and condition indices were measured. Warm acclimation reduced fish condition, induced aerobic metabolism and altered the responses of fish to acute temperature shift, hypoxia and Cu. Whereas warm acclimation decelerated the ETS and increased the sensitivity of maximal oxidation rates of the proximal (CI and II) complexes to acute temperature shift, it reduced the thermal sensitivity of state 4 (proton leak). Effects of Cu with and without hypoxia were variable depending on the acclimation status and functional index. Notably, Cu stimulated respiratory activity in the proximal ETS segments, while hypoxia was mostly inhibitory and minimized the stimulatory effect of Cu. The effects of Cu and hypoxia were modified by temperature and showed reciprocal antagonistic interaction on the ETS and plasma metabolites, with modest additive actions limited to CII and IV state 4. Overall, our results indicate that warm acclimation came at a cost of reduced ETS efficiency and increased sensitivity to added stressors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

"Cold" and "hot" thermal anomalies/events during spring and autumn in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graczyk, Dariusz; Szwed, Małgorzata; Choryński, Adam

2014-05-01

Regular air temperatures' changes, as an effect of succession of the seasons, are a part of people's everyday life. When winters and summers are not characterised by extreme thermal conditions, people are well prepared and there are no losses for agriculture and economy or human health consequences observed. A similar situation takes place in case of typical springs and autumns, where normally no too low or too high air temperatures occur. The situation becomes totally different when the air temperature significantly exceeds frames of typical temperature for particular months or seasons. Appearance of winter conditions during months in which they are not expected may lead to losses in different branches of the economy e.g. transport or agriculture. Heat in non-summer months potentially brings less damages for the economy, but it might be a great threat for human health, especially for those with cardiological diseases, and it may result in thermal discomfort. If these conditions last for sufficient period of time, they may cause disorders in plant vegetation cycles. One element of the discussion held on the global warming which has been observed since the half of the twentieth century, is the question of how this effects the occurrence of climatic anomalies. Does it result in an decrease of "cold" thermal anomalies and in an increase of frequency of "hot" anomalies? Or does it increase the occurrence of both types of these events? In this research there will be performed an analysis of the occurrence of conditions typical for winter months, outside the climatic winter (December, January, February) at ten locations in the area of Poland. During the months directly close to this period (November and March) the threshold for winter conditions will be maximum temperature below 0 oC which means occurrence of frost all day long. For other non-summer months the threshold will be mean daily temperature below 0 oC meaning low temperatures during the day, not only morning

The Effects of Global Warming on Temperature and Precipitation Trends in Northeast America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francis, F.

2013-12-01

The objective of this paper is to discuss the analysis of results in temperature and precipitation (rainfall) data and how they are affected by the theory of global warming in Northeast America. The topic was chosen because it will show the trends in temperature and precipitation and their relations to global warming. Data was collected from The Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). The data range from years of 1973 to 2012. We were able to calculate the yearly and monthly regress to estimate the relationship of variables found in the individual sources. With the use of specially designed software, analysis and manual calculations we are able to give a visualization of these trends in precipitation and temperature and to question if these trends are due to the theory of global warming. With the Calculation of the trends in slope we were able to interpret the changes in minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation. Precipitation had a 9.5 % increase over the past forty years, while maximum temperature increased 1.9 %, a greater increase is seen in minimum temperature of 3.3 % was calculated over the years. The trends in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature is statistically significant at a 95% level.

Linear dependence of surface expansion speed on initial plasma temperature in warm dense matter

DOE PAGES

Bang, Woosuk; Albright, Brian James; Bradley, Paul Andrew; ...

2016-07-12

Recent progress in laser-driven quasi-monoenergetic ion beams enabled the production of uniformly heated warm dense matter. Matter heated rapidly with this technique is under extreme temperatures and pressures, and promptly expands outward. While the expansion speed of an ideal plasma is known to have a square-root dependence on temperature, computer simulations presented here show a linear dependence of expansion speed on initial plasma temperature in the warm dense matter regime. The expansion of uniformly heated 1–100 eV solid density gold foils was modeled with the RAGE radiation-hydrodynamics code, and the average surface expansion speed was found to increase linearly withmore » temperature. The origin of this linear dependence is explained by comparing predictions from the SESAME equation-of-state tables with those from the ideal gas equation-of-state. In conclusion, these simulations offer useful insight into the expansion of warm dense matter and motivate the application of optical shadowgraphy for temperature measurement.« less

Upper temperature limits of tropical marine ectotherms: global warming implications.

PubMed

Nguyen, Khanh Dung T; Morley, Simon A; Lai, Chien-Houng; Clark, Melody S; Tan, Koh Siang; Bates, Amanda E; Peck, Lloyd S

2011-01-01

Animal physiology, ecology and evolution are affected by temperature and it is expected that community structure will be strongly influenced by global warming. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where organisms are already living close to their upper temperature limits and hence are highly vulnerable to rising temperature. Here we present data on upper temperature limits of 34 tropical marine ectotherm species from seven phyla living in intertidal and subtidal habitats. Short term thermal tolerances and vertical distributions were correlated, i.e., upper shore animals have higher thermal tolerance than lower shore and subtidal animals; however, animals, despite their respective tidal height, were susceptible to the same temperature in the long term. When temperatures were raised by 1°C hour(-1), the upper lethal temperature range of intertidal ectotherms was 41-52°C, but this range was narrower and reduced to 37-41°C in subtidal animals. The rate of temperature change, however, affected intertidal and subtidal animals differently. In chronic heating experiments when temperature was raised weekly or monthly instead of every hour, upper temperature limits of subtidal species decreased from 40°C to 35.4°C, while the decrease was more than 10°C in high shore organisms. Hence in the long term, activity and survival of tropical marine organisms could be compromised just 2-3°C above present seawater temperatures. Differences between animals from environments that experience different levels of temperature variability suggest that the physiological mechanisms underlying thermal sensitivity may vary at different rates of warming.

Exploring Antarctic Land Surface Temperature Extremes Using Condensed Anomaly Databases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, Glenn Edwin

Satellite observations have revolutionized the Earth Sciences and climate studies. However, data and imagery continue to accumulate at an accelerating rate, and efficient tools for data discovery, analysis, and quality checking lag behind. In particular, studies of long-term, continental-scale processes at high spatiotemporal resolutions are especially problematic. The traditional technique of downloading an entire dataset and using customized analysis code is often impractical or consumes too many resources. The Condensate Database Project was envisioned as an alternative method for data exploration and quality checking. The project's premise was that much of the data in any satellite dataset is unneeded and can be eliminated, compacting massive datasets into more manageable sizes. Dataset sizes are further reduced by retaining only anomalous data of high interest. Hosting the resulting "condensed" datasets in high-speed databases enables immediate availability for queries and exploration. Proof of the project's success relied on demonstrating that the anomaly database methods can enhance and accelerate scientific investigations. The hypothesis of this dissertation is that the condensed datasets are effective tools for exploring many scientific questions, spurring further investigations and revealing important information that might otherwise remain undetected. This dissertation uses condensed databases containing 17 years of Antarctic land surface temperature anomalies as its primary data. The study demonstrates the utility of the condensate database methods by discovering new information. In particular, the process revealed critical quality problems in the source satellite data. The results are used as the starting point for four case studies, investigating Antarctic temperature extremes, cloud detection errors, and the teleconnections between Antarctic temperature anomalies and climate indices. The results confirm the hypothesis that the condensate databases

The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age in Chesapeake Bay and the North Atlantic Ocean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T. M.; Hayo, K.; Thunell, R.C.; Dwyer, G.S.; Saenger, C.; Willard, D.A.

2010-01-01

A new 2400-year paleoclimate reconstruction from Chesapeake Bay (CB) (eastern US) was compared to other paleoclimate records in the North Atlantic region to evaluate climate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Using Mg/Ca ratios from ostracodes and oxygen isotopes from benthic foraminifera as proxies for temperature and precipitation-driven estuarine hydrography, results show that warmest temperatures in CB reached 16-17. ??C between 600 and 950. CE (Common Era), centuries before the classic European Medieval Warm Period (950-1100. CE) and peak warming in the Nordic Seas (1000-1400. CE). A series of centennial warm/cool cycles began about 1000. CE with temperature minima of ~. 8 to 9. ??C about 1150, 1350, and 1650-1800. CE, and intervening warm periods (14-15. ??C) centered at 1200, 1400, 1500 and 1600. CE. Precipitation variability in the eastern US included multiple dry intervals from 600 to 1200. CE, which contrasts with wet medieval conditions in the Caribbean. The eastern US experienced a wet LIA between 1650 and 1800. CE when the Caribbean was relatively dry. Comparison of the CB record with other records shows that the MCA and LIA were characterized by regionally asynchronous warming and complex spatial patterns of precipitation, possibly related to ocean-atmosphere processes. ?? 2010.

Variability in daily, zonal mean lower-stratospheric temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christy, John R.; Drouilhet, S. James, Jr.

1994-01-01

Satellite data from the microwave sounding unit (MSU) channel 4, when carefully merged, provide daily zonal anomalies of lower-stratosphere temperature with a level of precision between 0.01 and 0.08 C per 2.5 deg latitude band. Global averages of these daily zonal anomalies reveal the prominent warming events due to volcanic aerosol in 1982 (El Chichon) and 1991 (Mt. Pinatubo), which are on the order of 1 C. The quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) may be extracted from these zonal data by applying a spatial filter between 15 deg N and 15 deg S latitude, which resembles the meridional curvature. Previously published relationships between the QBO and the north polar stratospheric temperatures during northern winter are examined but were not found to be reproduced in the MSU4 data. Sudden stratospheric warmings in the north polar region are represented in the MSU4 data for latitudes poleward of 70 deg N. In the Southern Hemisphere, there appears to be a moderate relationship between total ozone concentration and MSU4 temperatures, though it has been less apparent in 1991 and 1992. In terms of empirical modes of variability, the authors find a strong tendency in EOF 1 (39.2% of the variance) for anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere polar regions to be counterbalanced by anomalies equatorward of 40 deg N and 40 deg S latitudes. In addition, most of the modes revealed significant power in the 15-20 day period band.

First results of warm mesospheric temperature over Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) during the sudden stratospheric warming of 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sridharan, S.; Raghunath, K.; Sathishkumar, S.; Nath, D.

2010-09-01

Rayleigh lidar observations at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) show an enhancement of the nightly mean temperature by 10-15 K at altitudes 70-80 km and of gravity wave potential energy at 60-70 km during the 2009 major stratospheric warming event. An enhanced quasi-16-day wave activity is observed at 50-70 km in the wavelet spectrum of TIMED-SABER temperatures, possibly due to the absence of a critical level in the low-latitude stratosphere because of less westward winds caused by this warming event. The observed low-latitude mesospheric warming could be due to wave breaking, as waves are damped at 80 km.

Elevational ranges of birds on a tropical montane gradient lag behind warming temperatures.

PubMed

Forero-Medina, German; Terborgh, John; Socolar, S Jacob; Pimm, Stuart L

2011-01-01

Species may respond to a warming climate by moving to higher latitudes or elevations. Shifts in geographic ranges are common responses in temperate regions. For the tropics, latitudinal temperature gradients are shallow; the only escape for species may be to move to higher elevations. There are few data to suggest that they do. Yet, the greatest loss of species from climate disruption may be for tropical montane species. We repeat a historical transect in Peru and find an average upward shift of 49 m for 55 bird species over a 41 year interval. This shift is significantly upward, but also significantly smaller than the 152 m one expects from warming in the region. To estimate the expected shift in elevation we first determined the magnitude of warming in the locality from historical data. Then we used the temperature lapse rate to infer the required shift in altitude to compensate for warming. The range shifts in elevation were similar across different trophic guilds. Endothermy may provide birds with some flexibility to temperature changes and allow them to move less than expected. Instead of being directly dependent on temperature, birds may be responding to gradual changes in the nature of the habitat or availability of food resources, and presence of competitors. If so, this has important implications for estimates of mountaintop extinctions from climate change.

Tularosa Basin Play Fairway Analysis: Weights of Evidence; Mineralogy, and Temperature Anomaly Maps

DOE Data Explorer

Adam Brandt

2015-11-15

This submission has two shapefiles and a tiff image. The weights of evidence analysis was applied to data representing heat of the earth and fracture permeability using training sites around the Southwest; this is shown in the tiff image. A shapefile of surface temperature anomalies was derived from the statistical analysis of Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) thermal infrared data which had been converted to surface temperatures; these anomalies have not been field checked. The second shapefile shows outcrop mineralogy which originally mapped by the New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources, and supplemented with mineralogic information related to rock fracability risk for EGS. Further metadata can be found within each file.

The seasonal response of the Held-Suarez climate model to prescribed ocean temperature anomalies. I - Results of decadal integrations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, T. J.; Semtner, A. J., Jr.

1984-01-01

Anomalies in ocean surface temperature have been identified as possible causes of variations in the climate of particular seasons or as a source of interannual climatic variability, and attempts have been made to forecast seasonal climate by using ocean temperatures as predictor variables. However, the seasonal atmospheric response to ocean temperature anomalies has not yet been systematically investigated with nonlinear models. The present investigation is concerned with ten-year integrations involving a model of intermediate complexity, the Held-Suarez climate model. The calculations have been performed to investigate the changes in seasonal climate which result from a fixed anomaly imposed on a seasonally varying, global ocean temperature field. Part I of the paper provides a report on the results of these decadal integrations. Attention is given to model properties, the experimental design, and the anomaly experiments.

Indian Ocean warming during 1958-2004 simulated by a climate system model and its mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Wu, Bo

2014-01-01

The mechanism responsible for Indian Ocean Sea surface temperature (SST) basin-wide warming trend during 1958-2004 is studied based on both observational data analysis and numerical experiments with a climate system model FGOALS-gl. To quantitatively estimate the relative contributions of external forcing (anthropogenic and natural forcing) and internal variability, three sets of numerical experiments are conducted, viz. an all forcing run forced by both anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols) and natural forcing (solar constant and volcanic aerosols), a natural forcing run driven by only natural forcing, and a pre-industrial control run. The model results are compared to the observations. The results show that the observed warming trend during 1958-2004 (0.5 K (47-year)-1) is largely attributed to the external forcing (more than 90 % of the total trend), while the residual is attributed to the internal variability. Model results indicate that the anthropogenic forcing accounts for approximately 98.8 % contribution of the external forcing trend. Heat budget analysis shows that the surface latent heat flux due to atmosphere and surface longwave radiation, which are mainly associated with anthropogenic forcing, are in favor of the basin-wide warming trend. The basin-wide warming is not spatially uniform, but with an equatorial IOD-like pattern in climate model. The atmospheric processes, oceanic processes and climatological latent heat flux together form an equatorial IOD-like warming pattern, and the oceanic process is the most important in forming the zonal dipole pattern. Both the anthropogenic forcing and natural forcing result in easterly wind anomalies over the equator, which reduce the wind speed, thereby lead to less evaporation and warmer SST in the equatorial western basin. Based on Bjerknes feedback, the easterly wind anomalies uplift the thermocline, which is unfavorable to SST warming in the eastern basin, and contribute to SST

Post-warm-up muscle temperature maintenance: blood flow contribution and external heating optimisation.

PubMed

Raccuglia, Margherita; Lloyd, Alex; Filingeri, Davide; Faulkner, Steve H; Hodder, Simon; Havenith, George

2016-02-01

Passive muscle heating has been shown to reduce the drop in post-warm-up muscle temperature (Tm) by about 25% over 30 min, with concomitant sprint/power performance improvements. We sought to determine the role of leg blood flow in this cooling and whether optimising the heating procedure would further benefit post-warm-up T m maintenance. Ten male cyclists completed 15-min sprint-based warm-up followed by 30 min recovery. Vastus lateralis Tm (Tmvl) was measured at deep-, mid- and superficial-depths before and after the warm-up, and after the recovery period (POST-REC). During the recovery period, participants wore water-perfused trousers heated to 43 °C (WPT43) with either whole leg heating (WHOLE) or upper leg heating (UPPER), which was compared to heating with electrically heated trousers at 40 °C (ELEC40) and a non-heated control (CON). The blood flow cooling effect on Tmvl was studied comparing one leg with (BF) and without (NBF) blood flow. Warm-up exercise significantly increased Tmvl by ~3 °C at all depths. After the recovery period, BF Tmvl was lower (~0.3 °C) than NBF Tmvl at all measured depths, with no difference between WHOLE versus UPPER. WPT43 reduced the post-warm-up drop in deep-Tmvl (-0.12 °C ± 0.3 °C) compared to ELEC40 (-1.08 ± 0.4 °C) and CON (-1.3 ± 0.3 °C), whereas mid- and superficial-Tmvl even increased by 0.15 ± 0.3 and 1.1 ± 1.1 °C, respectively. Thigh blood flow contributes to the post-warm-up Tmvl decline. Optimising the external heating procedure and increasing heating temperature of only 3 °C successfully maintained and even increased T mvl, demonstrating that heating temperature is the major determinant of post-warm-up Tmvl cooling in this application.

A reduction in the asymmetry of ENSO amplitude due to global warming: The role of atmospheric feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun

2017-08-01

This study analyzes a reduction in the asymmetry of El Niño Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude due to global warming in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. The multimodel-averaged Niño3 skewness during December-February season decreased approximately 40% in the RCP4.5 scenario compared to that in the historical simulation. The change in the nonlinear relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation is a key factor for understanding the reduction in ENSO asymmetry due to global warming. In the historical simulations, the background SST leading to the greatest precipitation sensitivity (SST for Maximum Precipitation Sensitivity, SST_MPS) occurs when the positive SST anomaly is located over the equatorial central Pacific. Therefore, an increase in climatological SST due to global warming weakens the atmospheric response during El Niño over the central Pacific. However, the climatological SST over this region in the historical simulation is still lower than the SST_MPS for the negative SST anomaly; therefore, a background SST increase due to global warming can further increase precipitation sensitivity. The atmospheric feedbacks during La Niña are enhanced and increase the La Niña amplitude due to global warming.

Extreme Marine Warming Across Tropical Australia During Austral Summer 2015-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benthuysen, Jessica A.; Oliver, Eric C. J.; Feng, Ming; Marshall, Andrew G.

2018-02-01

During austral summer 2015-2016, prolonged extreme ocean warming events, known as marine heatwaves (MHWs), occurred in the waters around tropical Australia. MHWs arose first in the southeast tropical Indian Ocean in November 2015, emerging progressively east until March 2016, when all waters from the North West Shelf to the Coral Sea were affected. The MHW maximum intensity tended to occur in March, coinciding with the timing of the maximum sea surface temperature (SST). Large areas were in a MHW state for 3-4 months continuously with maximum intensities over 2°C. In 2016, the Indonesian-Australian Basin and areas including the Timor Sea and Kimberley shelf experienced the longest and most intense MHW from remotely sensed SST dating back to 1982. In situ temperature data from temperature loggers at coastal sites revealed a consistent picture, with MHWs appearing from west to east and peaking in March 2016. Temperature data from moorings, an Argo float, and Slocum gliders showed the extent of warming with depth. The events occurred during a strong El Niño and weakened monsoon activity, enhanced by the extended suppressed phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Reduced cloud cover in January and February 2016 led to positive air-sea heat flux anomalies into the ocean, predominantly due to the shortwave radiation contribution with a smaller additional contribution from the latent heat flux anomalies. A data-assimilating ocean model showed regional changes in the upper ocean circulation and a change in summer surface mixed layer depths and barrier layer thicknesses consistent with past El Niño events.

Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection

PubMed Central

Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

2016-01-01

Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection. PMID:26838053

Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection.

PubMed

Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

2016-02-03

Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection.

Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winslow, Luke; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Rose, Kevin C.; Robertson, Dale M.

2017-01-01

Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr−1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr−1). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr−1), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr−1 to 0.035°C yr−1, SD: 0.034°C yr−1). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.

Warming and drought reduce temperature sensitivity of nitrogen transformations.

PubMed

Novem Auyeung, Dolaporn S; Suseela, Vidya; Dukes, Jeffrey S

2013-02-01

Shifts in nitrogen (N) mineralization and nitrification rates due to global changes can influence nutrient availability, which can affect terrestrial productivity and climate change feedbacks. While many single-factor studies have examined the effects of environmental changes on N mineralization and nitrification, few have examined these effects in a multifactor context or recorded how these effects vary seasonally. In an old-field ecosystem in Massachusetts, USA, we investigated the combined effects of four levels of warming (up to 4 °C) and three levels of precipitation (drought, ambient, and wet) on net N mineralization, net nitrification, and potential nitrification. We also examined the treatment effects on the temperature sensitivity of net N mineralization and net nitrification and on the ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization. During winter, freeze-thaw events, snow depth, and soil freezing depth explained little of the variation in net nitrification and N mineralization rates among treatments. During two years of treatments, warming and altered precipitation rarely influenced the rates of N cycling, and there was no evidence of a seasonal pattern in the responses. In contrast, warming and drought dramatically decreased the apparent Q10 of net N mineralization and net nitrification, and the warming-induced decrease in apparent Q10 was more pronounced in ambient and wet treatments than the drought treatment. The ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization varied over time and was sensitive to the interactive effects of warming and altered precipitation. Although many studies have found that warming tends to accelerate N cycling, our results suggest that warming can have little to no effect on N cycling in some ecosystems. Thus, ecosystem models that assume that warming will consistently increase N mineralization rates and inputs of plant-available N may overestimate the increase in terrestrial productivity and the magnitude of an important

[A comparison of the effects of intravenous fluid warming and skin surface warming on peri-operative body temperature and acid base balance of elderly patients with abdominal surgery].

PubMed

Park, Hyosun; Yoon, Haesang

2007-12-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of intravenous fluid warming and skin surface warming on peri-operative body temperature and acid base balance of abdominal surgical patients under general anesthesia. Data collection was performed from January 4th, to May 31, 2004. The intravenous fluid warming(IFW) group (30 elderly patients) was warmed through an IV line by an Animec set to 37 degrees C. The skin surface warming (SSW) group (30 elderly patients) was warmed by a circulating-water blanket set to 38 degrees C under the back and a 60W heating lamp 40 cm above the chest. The warming continued from induction of general anesthesia to two hours after completion of surgery. Collected data was analyzed using Repeated Measures ANOVA, and Bonferroni methods. SSW was more effective than IFW in preventing hypothermia(p= .043), preventing a decrease of HCO(3)(-)(p= .000) and preventing base excess (p= .000) respectively. However, there was no difference in pH between the SSW and IFW (p= .401) groups. We conclude that skin surface warming is more effective in preventing hypothermia, and HCO(3)(-) and base excess during general anesthesia, and returning to normal body temperature after surgery than intravenous fluid warming; however, skin surface warming wasn't able to sustain a normal body temperature in elderly patients undergoing abdominal surgery under general anesthesia.

Soil warming increases metabolic quotients of soil microorganisms without changes in temperature sensitivity of soil respiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marañón-Jiménez, Sara; Soong, Jenniffer L.; Leblans, Niki I. W.; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D.; Dauwe, Steven; Fransen, Erik; Janssens, Ivan A.

2017-04-01

Increasing temperatures can accelerate soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition and release large amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere, potentially inducing climate change feedbacks. Alterations to the temperature sensitivity and metabolic pathways of soil microorganisms in response to soil warming can play a key role in these soil carbon (C) losses. Here, we present results of an incubation experiment using soils from a geothermal gradient in Iceland that have been subjected to different intensities of soil warming (+0, +1, +3, +5, +10 and +20 °C above ambient) over seven years. We hypothesized that 7 years of soil warming would led to a depletion of labile organic substrates, with a subsequent decrease of the "apparent" temperature sensitivity of soil respiration. Associated to this C limitation and more sub-optimal conditions for microbial growth, we also hypothesized increased microbial metabolic quotients (soil respiration per unit of microbial biomass), which is associated with increases in the relative amount of C invested into catabolic pathways along the warming gradient. Soil respiration and basal respiration rates decreased with soil warming intensity, in parallel with a decline in soil C availability. Contrasting to our first hypothesis, we did not detect changes in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration with soil warming or on the availability of nutrients and of labile C substrates at the time of incubation. However, in agreement to our second hypothesis, microbial metabolic quotients (soil respiration per unit of microbial biomass) increased at warmer temperatures, while the C retained in biomass decreased as substrate became limiting. Long-term (7 years) temperature increases thus triggered a change in the metabolic functioning of the soil microbial communities towards increasing energy costs for maintenance or resource acquisition, thereby lowering the capacity of C retention and stabilization of warmed soils. These results highlight the need

Warm-adapted microbial communities enhance their carbon-use efficiency in warmed soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousk, Johannes; Frey, Serita

2017-04-01

Ecosystem models predict that climate warming will stimulate microbial decomposition of soil carbon (C), resulting in a positive feedback to increasing temperatures. The current generation of models assume that the temperature sensitivities of microbial processes do not respond to warming. However, recent studies have suggested that the ability of microbial communities to adapt to warming can lead both strengthened and weakened feedbacks. A further complication is that the balance between microbial C used for growth to that used for respiration - the microbial carbon-use efficiency (CUE) - also has been shown through both modelling and empirical study to respond to warming. In our study, we set out to assess how chronic warming (+5°C over ambient during 9 years) of a temperate hardwood forest floor (Harvard Forest LTER, USA) affected temperature sensitivities of microbial processes in soil. To do this, we first determined the temperature relationships for bacterial growth, fungal growth, and respiration in plots exposed to warmed or ambient conditions. Secondly, we parametrised the established temperature functions microbial growth and respiration with plot-specific measured soil temperature data at a hourly time-resolution over the course of 3 years to estimate the real-time variation of in situ microbial C production and respiration. To estimate the microbial CUE, we also divided the microbial C production with the sum of microbial C production and respiration as a proxy for substrate use. We found that warm-adapted bacterial and fungal communities both shifted their temperature relationships to grow at higher rates in warm conditions which coincided with reduced rates at cool conditions. As such, their optimal temperature (Topt), minimum temperature (Tmin) and temperature sensitivity (Q10) were all increased. The temperature relationship for temperature, in contrast, was only marginally shifted in the same direction, but at a much smaller effect size, with

Extreme warm temperatures alter forest phenology and productivity in Europe.

PubMed

Crabbe, Richard A; Dash, Jadu; Rodriguez-Galiano, Victor F; Janous, Dalibor; Pavelka, Marian; Marek, Michal V

2016-09-01

Recent climate warming has shifted the timing of spring and autumn vegetation phenological events in the temperate and boreal forest ecosystems of Europe. In many areas spring phenological events start earlier and autumn events switch between earlier and later onset. Consequently, the length of growing season in mid and high latitudes of European forest is extended. However, the lagged effects (i.e. the impact of a warm spring or autumn on the subsequent phenological events) on vegetation phenology and productivity are less explored. In this study, we have (1) characterised extreme warm spring and extreme warm autumn events in Europe during 2003-2011, and (2) investigated if direct impact on forest phenology and productivity due to a specific warm event translated to a lagged effect in subsequent phenological events. We found that warmer events in spring occurred extensively in high latitude Europe producing a significant earlier onset of greening (OG) in broadleaf deciduous forest (BLDF) and mixed forest (MF). However, this earlier OG did not show any significant lagged effects on autumnal senescence. Needleleaf evergreen forest (NLEF), BLDF and MF showed a significantly delayed end of senescence (EOS) as a result of extreme warm autumn events; and in the following year's spring phenological events, OG started significantly earlier. Extreme warm spring events directly led to significant (p=0.0189) increases in the productivity of BLDF. In order to have a complete understanding of ecosystems response to warm temperature during key phenological events, particularly autumn events, the lagged effect on the next growing season should be considered. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Moisture increase in response to high-altitude warming evidenced by tree-rings on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jinbao; Shi, Jiangfeng; Zhang, David D.; Yang, Bao; Fang, Keyan; Yue, Pak Hong

2017-01-01

Rapid warming has been observed in the high-altitude areas around the globe, but the implications on moisture change are not fully understood. Here we use tree-rings to reveal common moisture change on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the past five centuries, and show that regional moisture change in late spring to early summer (April-June) is closely related to large-scale temperature anomaly over the TP, with increased moisture coincident with periods of high temperature. The most recent pluvial during the 1990s-2000s is likely the wettest for the past five centuries, which coincides with the warmest period on the TP during the past millennium. Dynamic analysis reveals that vertical air convection is enhanced in response to anomalous TP surface warming, leading to an increase in lower-tropospheric humidity and effective precipitation over the southeastern TP. The coherent warm-wet relationship identified in both tree-rings and dynamic analysis implies a generally wetter condition on the southeastern TP under future warming.

No inter-gyre pathway for sea-surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic.

PubMed

Foukal, Nicholas P; Lozier, M Susan

2016-04-22

Recent Lagrangian analyses of surface drifters have questioned the existence of a surface current connecting the Gulf Stream (GS) to the subpolar gyre (SPG) and have cast doubt on the mechanism underlying an apparent pathway for sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies between the two regions. Here we use modelled Lagrangian trajectories to determine the fate of surface GS water and satellite SST data to analyse pathways of GS SST anomalies. Our results show that only a small fraction of the surface GS water reaches the SPG, the water that does so mainly travels below the surface mixed layer, and GS SST anomalies do not propagate into the SPG on interannual timescales. Instead, the inter-gyre heat transport as part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation must be accomplished via subsurface pathways. We conclude that the SST in the SPG cannot be predicted by tracking SST anomalies along the GS.

No inter-gyre pathway for sea-surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic

PubMed Central

Foukal, Nicholas P.; Lozier, M. Susan

2016-01-01

Recent Lagrangian analyses of surface drifters have questioned the existence of a surface current connecting the Gulf Stream (GS) to the subpolar gyre (SPG) and have cast doubt on the mechanism underlying an apparent pathway for sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies between the two regions. Here we use modelled Lagrangian trajectories to determine the fate of surface GS water and satellite SST data to analyse pathways of GS SST anomalies. Our results show that only a small fraction of the surface GS water reaches the SPG, the water that does so mainly travels below the surface mixed layer, and GS SST anomalies do not propagate into the SPG on interannual timescales. Instead, the inter-gyre heat transport as part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation must be accomplished via subsurface pathways. We conclude that the SST in the SPG cannot be predicted by tracking SST anomalies along the GS. PMID:27103496

Long-Term Responses of the Endemic Reef-Builder Cladocora caespitosa to Mediterranean Warming

PubMed Central

Kersting, Diego K.; Bensoussan, Nathaniel; Linares, Cristina

2013-01-01

Recurrent climate-induced mass-mortalities have been recorded in the Mediterranean Sea over the past 15 years. Cladocora caespitosa, the sole zooxanthellate scleractinian reef-builder in the Mediterranean, is among the organisms affected by these episodes. Extensive bioconstructions of this endemic coral are very rare at the present time and are threatened by several stressors. In this study, we assessed the long-term response of this temperate coral to warming sea-water in the Columbretes Islands (NW Mediterranean) and described, for the first time, the relationship between recurrent mortality events and local sea surface temperature (SST) regimes in the Mediterranean Sea. A water temperature series spanning more than 20 years showed a summer warming trend of 0.06°C per year and an increased frequency of positive thermal anomalies. Mortality resulted from tissue necrosis without massive zooxanthellae loss and during the 11-year study, necrosis was recorded during nine summers separated into two mortality periods (2003–2006 and 2008–2012). The highest necrosis rates were registered during the first mortality period, after the exceptionally hot summer of 2003. Although necrosis and temperature were significantly associated, the variability in necrosis rates during summers with similar thermal anomalies pointed to other acting factors. In this sense, our results showed that these differences were more closely related to the interannual temperature context and delayed thermal stress after extreme summers, rather than to acclimatisation and adaption processes. PMID:23951016

Analyses Reveal Record-Shattering Global Warm Temperatures in 2015

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-01-20

2015 was the warmest year since modern record-keeping began in 1880, according to a new analysis by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The record-breaking year continues a long-term warming trend — 15 of the 16 warmest years on record have now occurred since 2001. Credits: Scientific Visualization Studio/Goddard Space Flight Center Details: Earth’s 2015 surface temperatures were the warmest since modern record keeping began in 1880, according to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Globally-averaged temperatures in 2015 shattered the previous mark set in 2014 by 0.23 degrees Fahrenheit (0.13 Celsius). Only once before, in 1998, has the new record been greater than the old record by this much. The 2015 temperatures continue a long-term warming trend, according to analyses by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York (GISTEMP). NOAA scientists agreed with the finding that 2015 was the warmest year on record based on separate, independent analyses of the data. Because weather station locations and measurements change over time, there is some uncertainty in the individual values in the GISTEMP index. Taking this into account, NASA analysis estimates 2015 was the warmest year with 94 percent certainty.

Temperature-difference-driven mass transfer through the vapor from a cold to a warm liquid.

PubMed

Struchtrup, Henning; Kjelstrup, Signe; Bedeaux, Dick

2012-06-01

Irreversible thermodynamics provides interface conditions that yield temperature and chemical potential jumps at phase boundaries. The interfacial jumps allow unexpected transport phenomena, such as the inverted temperature profile [Pao, Phys. Fluids 14, 306 (1971)] and mass transfer from a cold to a warm liquid driven by a temperature difference across the vapor phase [Mills and Phillips, Chem. Phys. Lett. 372, 615 (2002)]. Careful evaluation of the thermodynamic laws has shown [Bedeaux et al., Physica A 169, 263 (1990)] that the inverted temperature profile is observed for processes with a high heat of vaporization. In this paper, we show that cold to warm mass transfer through the vapor from a cold to a warm liquid is only possible when the heat of evaporation is sufficiently small. A necessary criterium for the size of the mass transfer coefficient is given.

Climatic warming in China during 1901–2015 based on an extended dataset of instrumental temperature records

DOE PAGES

Cao, Lijuan; Yan, Zhongwei; Zhao, Ping; ...

2017-05-26

Monthly mean instrumental surface air temperature (SAT) observations back to the nineteenth century in China are synthesized from different sources via specific quality-control, interpolation, and homogenization. Compared with the first homogenized long-term SAT dataset for China which contained 18 stations mainly located in the middle and eastern part of China, the present dataset includes homogenized monthly SAT series at 32 stations, with an extended coverage especially towards western China. Missing values are interpolated by using observations at nearby stations, including those from neighboring countries. Cross validation shows that the mean bias error (MBE) is generally small and falls between 0.45more » °C and –0.35 °C. Multiple homogenization methods and available metadata are applied to assess the consistency of the time series and to adjust inhomogeneity biases. The homogenized annual mean SAT series shows a range of trends between 1.1 °C and 4.0 °C/century in northeastern China, between 0.4 °C and 1.9 °C/century in southeastern China, and between 1.4 °C and 3.7 °C/century in western China to the west of 105 E (from the initial years of the stations to 2015). The unadjusted data include unusually warm records during the 1940s and hence tend to underestimate the warming trends at a number of stations. As a result, the mean SAT series for China based on the climate anomaly method shows a warming trend of 1.56 °C/century during 1901–2015, larger than those based on other currently available datasets.« less

Climatic warming in China during 1901–2015 based on an extended dataset of instrumental temperature records

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cao, Lijuan; Yan, Zhongwei; Zhao, Ping

Monthly mean instrumental surface air temperature (SAT) observations back to the nineteenth century in China are synthesized from different sources via specific quality-control, interpolation, and homogenization. Compared with the first homogenized long-term SAT dataset for China which contained 18 stations mainly located in the middle and eastern part of China, the present dataset includes homogenized monthly SAT series at 32 stations, with an extended coverage especially towards western China. Missing values are interpolated by using observations at nearby stations, including those from neighboring countries. Cross validation shows that the mean bias error (MBE) is generally small and falls between 0.45more » °C and –0.35 °C. Multiple homogenization methods and available metadata are applied to assess the consistency of the time series and to adjust inhomogeneity biases. The homogenized annual mean SAT series shows a range of trends between 1.1 °C and 4.0 °C/century in northeastern China, between 0.4 °C and 1.9 °C/century in southeastern China, and between 1.4 °C and 3.7 °C/century in western China to the west of 105 E (from the initial years of the stations to 2015). The unadjusted data include unusually warm records during the 1940s and hence tend to underestimate the warming trends at a number of stations. As a result, the mean SAT series for China based on the climate anomaly method shows a warming trend of 1.56 °C/century during 1901–2015, larger than those based on other currently available datasets.« less

Interannual variability of western North Pacific SST anomalies and its impact on North Pacific and North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jae-Heung; An, Soon-Il; Kug, Jong-Seong

2017-12-01

In this study, the interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) and its atmospheric teleconnection over the western North Pacific (WNP) toward the North Pacific/North America during boreal winter are investigated. First, we defined the WNP mode as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of SST anomalies over the WNP region (100-165°E, 0-35°N), of which the principle component time-series are significantly correlated with several well-known climate modes such as the warm pool mode which is the second EOF mode of the tropical to North Pacific SST anomalies, North Pacific oscillation (NPO), North Pacific gyre oscillation (NPGO), and central Pacific (CP)-El Niño at 95% confidence level, but not correlated with the eastern Pacific (EP)-El Niño. The warm phase of the WNP mode (sea surface warming) is initiated by anomalous southerly winds through reduction of wind speed with the background of northerly mean winds over the WNP during boreal winter, i.e., reduced evaporative cooling. Meanwhile, the atmospheric response to the SST warming pattern and its diabatic heating further enhance the southerly wind anomaly, referred to the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback. Thus, the WNP mode is developed and maintained through winter until spring, when the northerly mean wind disappears. Furthermore, it is also known that anomalous upper-level divergence associated with WNP mode leads to the NPO-like structure over the North Pacific and the east-west pressure contrast pattern over the North America through Rossby wave propagation, impacting the climate over the North Pacific and North America.

Warmed, humidified CO2 insufflation benefits intraoperative core temperature during laparoscopic surgery: A meta‐analysis

PubMed Central

Dean, Meara; Ramsay, Robert; Heriot, Alexander; Mackay, John; Hiscock, Richard

2016-01-01

Abstract Background Intraoperative hypothermia is linked to postoperative adverse events. The use of warmed, humidified CO2 to establish pneumoperitoneum during laparoscopy has been associated with reduced incidence of intraoperative hypothermia. However, the small number and variable quality of published studies have caused uncertainty about the potential benefit of this therapy. This meta‐analysis was conducted to specifically evaluate the effects of warmed, humidified CO2 during laparoscopy. Methods An electronic database search identified randomized controlled trials performed on adults who underwent laparoscopic abdominal surgery under general anesthesia with either warmed, humidified CO2 or cold, dry CO2. The main outcome measure of interest was change in intraoperative core body temperature. Results The database search identified 320 studies as potentially relevant, and of these, 13 met the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. During laparoscopic surgery, use of warmed, humidified CO2 is associated with a significant increase in intraoperative core temperature (mean temperature change, 0.3°C), when compared with cold, dry CO2 insufflation. Conclusion Warmed, humidified CO2 insufflation during laparoscopic abdominal surgery has been demonstrated to improve intraoperative maintenance of normothermia when compared with cold, dry CO2. PMID:27976517

An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Jian; Liu, Qinyu; Wang, Chuanyang

2018-03-01

Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.

Response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to El Niño versus global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Fukai; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian

Climate models project an El Niño-like SST response in the tropical Pacific Ocean to global warming (GW). By employing the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component, Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2), this study investigates the similarity and difference of formation mechanism for the changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean under El Niño and GW. Results show that, despite sharing some similarities between the two scenarios, there are many significant distinctions between GW and El Niño: 1) the phase locking of the seasonal cycle reduction is more notable under GW compared withmore » El Niño, implying more extreme El Niño events in the future; 2) in contrast to the penetration of the equatorial subsurface temperature anomaly that appears to propagate in the form of an oceanic equatorial upwelling Kelvin wave during El Niño, the GW-induced subsurface temperature anomaly manifest in the form of off-equatorial upwelling Rossby waves; 3) while significant across-equator northward heat transport (NHT) is induced by the wind stress anomalies associated with El Niño, little NHT is found at the equator due to a symmetric change in the shallow meridional overturning circulation that appears to be weakened in both North and South Pacific under GW; and 4) the maintaining mechanisms for the eastern equatorial Pacific warming are also substantially different.« less

Pre-seismic anomalies in remotely sensed land surface temperature measurements: The case study of 2003 Boumerdes earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellaoui, Mebrouk; Hassini, Abdelatif; Bouchouicha, Kada

2017-05-01

Detection of thermal anomaly prior to earthquake events has been widely confirmed by researchers over the past decade. One of the popular approaches for anomaly detection is the Robust Satellite Approach (RST). In this paper, we use this method on a collection of six years of MODIS satellite data, representing land surface temperature (LST) images to predict 21st May 2003 Boumerdes Algeria earthquake. The thermal anomalies results were compared with the ambient temperature variation measured in three meteorological stations of Algerian National Office of Meteorology (ONM) (DELLYS-AFIR, TIZI-OUZOU, and DAR-EL-BEIDA). The results confirm the importance of RST as an approach highly effective for monitoring the earthquakes.

Contribution of Anthropogenic Warming to California Drought During 2012-2014

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, A. Park; Seager, Richard; Abatzoglou, John T.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Cook, Edward R.

2015-01-01

A suite of climate data sets and multiple representations of atmospheric moisture demand are used to calculate many estimates of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for near-surface soil moisture, across California from 1901 to 2014 at high spatial resolution. Based on the ensemble of calculations, California drought conditions were record breaking in 2014, but probably not record breaking in 2012-2014, contrary to prior findings. Regionally, the 2012-2014 drought was record breaking in the agriculturally important southern Central Valley and highly populated coastal areas. Contributions of individual climate variables to recent drought are also examined, including the temperature component associated with anthropogenic warming. Precipitation is the primary driver of drought variability but anthropogenic warming is estimated to have accounted for 8-27 percent of the observed drought anomaly in 2012-2014 and 5-18 percent in 2014. Although natural variability dominates, anthropogenic warming has substantially increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts.

Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle

2015-03-31

California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼ 100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm-dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the "exceptional" 2012-2014 drought in California.

Bracketing mid-pliocene sea surface temperature: maximum and minimum possible warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry

2004-01-01

Estimates of sea surface temperature (SST) from ocean cores reveal a warm phase of the Pliocene between about 3.3 and 3.0 Mega-annums (Ma). Pollen records from land based cores and sections, although not as well dated, also show evidence for a warmer climate at about the same time. Increased greenhouse forcing and altered ocean heat transport is the leading candidates for the underlying cause of Pliocene global warmth. However, despite being a period of global warmth, there exists considerable variability within this interval. Two new SST reconstructions have been created to provide a climatological error bar for warm peak phases of the Pliocene. These data represent the maximum and minimum possible warming recorded within the 3.3 to 3.0 Ma interval.

Incorporating residual temperature and specific humidity in predicting weather-dependent warm-season electricity consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Huade; Beecham, Simon; Xu, Hanqiu; Ingleton, Greg

2017-02-01

Climate warming and increasing variability challenges the electricity supply in warm seasons. A good quantitative representation of the relationship between warm-season electricity consumption and weather condition provides necessary information for long-term electricity planning and short-term electricity management. In this study, an extended version of cooling degree days (ECDD) is proposed for better characterisation of this relationship. The ECDD includes temperature, residual temperature and specific humidity effects. The residual temperature is introduced for the first time to reflect the building thermal inertia effect on electricity consumption. The study is based on the electricity consumption data of four multiple-street city blocks and three office buildings. It is found that the residual temperature effect is about 20% of the current-day temperature effect at the block scale, and increases with a large variation at the building scale. Investigation of this residual temperature effect provides insight to the influence of building designs and structures on electricity consumption. The specific humidity effect appears to be more important at the building scale than at the block scale. A building with high energy performance does not necessarily have low specific humidity dependence. The new ECDD better reflects the weather dependence of electricity consumption than the conventional CDD method.

Variability of Winter Air Temperature in Mid-Latitude Europe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.; Ardizzone, J.; Atlas, R.; Bungato, D.; Cierniewski, J.; Jusem, J. C.; Przybylak, R.; Schubert, S.; Starr, D.; Walczewski, J.

2002-01-01

The aim of this paper is to report extreme winter/early-spring air temperature (hereinafter temperature) anomalies in mid-latitude Europe, and to discuss the underlying forcing to these interannual fluctuations. Warm advection from the North Atlantic in late winter controls the surface-air temperature, as indicated by the substantial correlation between the speed of the surface southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic (quantified by a specific Index Ina) and the 2-meter level air temperatures (hereinafter Ts) over Europe, 45-60 deg N, in winter. In mid-March and subsequently, the correlation drops drastically (quite often it is negative). This change in the relationship between Ts and Ina marks a transition in the control of the surface-air temperature: absorption of insolation replaces the warm advection as the dominant control. This forcing by maritime-air advection in winter was demonstrated in a previous publication, and is re-examined here in conjunction with extreme fluctuations of temperatures in Europe. We analyze here the interannual variability at its extreme by comparing warm-winter/early-spring of 1989/90 with the opposite scenario in 1995/96. For these two December-to-March periods the differences in the monthly mean temperature in Warsaw and Torun, Poland, range above 10 C. Short-term (shorter than a month) fluctuations of the temperature are likewise very strong. We conduct pentad-by-pentad analysis of the surface-maximum air temperature (hereinafter Tmax), in a selected location, examining the dependence on Ina. The increased cloudiness and higher amounts of total precipitable water, corollary effects to the warm low-level advection. in the 1989/90 winter, enhance the positive temperature anomalies. The analysis of the ocean surface winds is based on the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) dataset; ascent rates, and over land wind data are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); maps of 2-m temperature, cloud

Direct Contribution of the Stratosphere to Recent West Antarctic Warming in Austral Spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolas, J. P.; Bromwich, D. H.

2015-12-01

The causes of the rapid warming of West Antarctica in recent decades are not yet fully understood. Thus far, investigations of the phenomenon have emphasized the role of tropospheric teleconnections originating from the Tropics in austral winter, but have had less success in explaining the strong warming in austral spring (SON). Here, we further explore the mechanisms behind the SON warming by focusing on September, the month during which atmospheric temperature and circulation trends in and around West Antarctica largely account for the 3-month average SON trends. We show that the tropospheric trends toward lower pressures/heights (more cyclonic) over the South Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean previously reported extend vertically well into the stratosphere. In the lower troposphere, these circulation changes, by steering more warm air toward West Antarctica, have likely contributed to the warming of the region. In the stratosphere, we provide evidence that the cyclonic trends are associated with a very prominent stratospheric warming in the Australian sector, believed to be the result of increased tropically-forced planetary wave activity and wave breaking. Through thermal wind balance, this regional stratospheric warming has led to a poleward displacement of the polar-night jet south of Australia, leading to enhanced cyclonic motion and potential vorticity (PV) downwind over the Amundsen Sea region. Finally, we establish, through the PV inversion framework, a causal link between stratospheric and tropospheric changes, whereby large PV anomalies in the stratosphere induce consistent geopotential height anomalies down in the troposphere. Our results highlight not only the important and largely overlooked role played by the stratosphere in recent West Antarctic climate change, but also a new pathway for tropical climate variability to influence Antarctic climate.

Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.

2017-01-01

Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.

Rate of warming affects temperature sensitivity of anaerobic peat decomposition and greenhouse gas production.

PubMed

Sihi, Debjani; Inglett, Patrick W; Gerber, Stefan; Inglett, Kanika S

2018-01-01

Temperature sensitivity of anaerobic carbon mineralization in wetlands remains poorly represented in most climate models and is especially unconstrained for warmer subtropical and tropical systems which account for a large proportion of global methane emissions. Several studies of experimental warming have documented thermal acclimation of soil respiration involving adjustments in microbial physiology or carbon use efficiency (CUE), with an initial decline in CUE with warming followed by a partial recovery in CUE at a later stage. The variable CUE implies that the rate of warming may impact microbial acclimation and the rate of carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) production. Here, we assessed the effects of warming rate on the decomposition of subtropical peats, by applying either a large single-step (10°C within a day) or a slow ramping (0.1°C/day for 100 days) temperature increase. The extent of thermal acclimation was tested by monitoring CO 2 and CH 4 production, CUE, and microbial biomass. Total gaseous C loss, CUE, and MBC were greater in the slow (ramp) warming treatment. However, greater values of CH 4 -C:CO 2 -C ratios lead to a greater global warming potential in the fast (step) warming treatment. The effect of gradual warming on decomposition was more pronounced in recalcitrant and nutrient-limited soils. Stable carbon isotopes of CH 4 and CO 2 further indicated the possibility of different carbon processing pathways under the contrasting warming rates. Different responses in fast vs. slow warming treatment combined with different endpoints may indicate alternate pathways with long-term consequences. Incorporations of experimental results into organic matter decomposition models suggest that parameter uncertainties in CUE and CH 4 -C:CO 2 -C ratios have a larger impact on long-term soil organic carbon and global warming potential than uncertainty in model structure, and shows that particular rates of warming are central to understand the

Using ecosystem indicators to track effects of recent warm conditions in Alaska's Large Marine Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zador, S.; Ormseth, O.; Renner, H.

2016-02-01

A comprehensive suite of ecosystem indicators, defined simply here as time-series of data that measure some component of an ecosystem, can provide a holistic and long-term view of ecosystem status and response to change. In Alaska, marine ecosystem indicators are tracked in the Gulf of Alaska, Aleutian Islands and eastern Bering Sea to inform annual ecosystem assessments for managers and scientists, and in particular, to inform ecosystem-based fisheries management. We will present the most recent indicator-based assessments of these three large marine ecosystems (LMEs) that integrate data from climate and oceanographic indicators through lower and upper-trophic biological indicators and highlight regional and species-specific apparent responses to the recent warm anomalies in the North Pacific. We will use comparisons among the three LMEs to illustrate how the effects of the anomalies may propagate through ecosystems and food webs. In general, we expect to see more changes in indicators' status that may be attributed to the Warm Blob in the Gulf of Alaska relative to the other LMEs, as a result of the proximity of the Gulf of Alaska to the areas where the temperature anomalies originated. In the eastern Bering Sea, which is separated from the North Pacific by the Aleutian Island chain, we expect to see more modulated responses. We will discuss the types of biological indicators that are expected to show direct responses to temperatures, such as changes in species distribution, compared to those that may show lagged effects.

A review on remotely sensed land surface temperature anomaly as an earthquake precursor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhardwaj, Anshuman; Singh, Shaktiman; Sam, Lydia; Joshi, P. K.; Bhardwaj, Akanksha; Martín-Torres, F. Javier; Kumar, Rajesh

2017-12-01

The low predictability of earthquakes and the high uncertainty associated with their forecasts make earthquakes one of the worst natural calamities, capable of causing instant loss of life and property. Here, we discuss the studies reporting the observed anomalies in the satellite-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) before an earthquake. We compile the conclusions of these studies and evaluate the use of remotely sensed LST anomalies as precursors of earthquakes. The arrival times and the amplitudes of the anomalies vary widely, thus making it difficult to consider them as universal markers to issue earthquake warnings. Based on the randomness in the observations of these precursors, we support employing a global-scale monitoring system to detect statistically robust anomalous geophysical signals prior to earthquakes before considering them as definite precursors.

Low-temperature geothermal potential of the Ojo Caliente warm springs area, northern New Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vuataz, F.D.; Stix, J.; Goff, F.

1984-05-01

A detailed geochemical investigation of 17 waters (thermal and cold, mineralized and dilute) was performed in the Ojo Caliente-La Madera area. Two types of thermomineral waters have separate and distinctive geologic, geochemical, and geothermal characteristics. The water from Ojo Caliente Resort emerges with temperatures less than or equal to 54/sup 0/C from a Precambrian metarhyolite. Its chemistry, typically Na-HCO/sub 3/, has a total mineralization of 3600 mg/l. Isotopic studies have shown that the thermal water emerges from the springs and a hot well without significant mixing with the cold shallow aquifer of the valley alluvium. However, the cold aquifer adjacentmore » to the resort does contain varying amounts of thermal water that originates from the warm spring system. Geothermometry calculations indicate that the thermal water may be as hot as 85/sup 0/C at depth before its ascent toward surface. Thermodynamic computations on the reaction states of numerous mineral phases suggest that the thermal water will not cause major scaling problems if the hot water is utilized for direct-use geothermal applications. By means of a network of very shallow holes, temperature and electrical conductivity anomalies have been found elsewhere in the valley around Ojo Caliente, and resistivity soundings have confirmed the presence of a plume of thermal water entering the shallow aquifer. The group of lukewarm springs around La Madera, with temperatures less than or equal to 29/sup 0/C, chemical type of NaCaMg-HCO/sub 3/Cl and with a total mineralization less than or equal to 1500 mg/l behaves as a different system without any apparent relation to the Ojo Caliente system. Its temperature at depth is not believed to exceed 35 to 40/sup 0/C.« less

The time of day effects of warm temperature on flowering time involve PIF4 and PIF5

PubMed Central

Thines, Bryan C.; Duarte, Maritza I.; Harmon, Frank G.

2014-01-01

Warm temperature promotes flowering in Arabidopsis thaliana and this response involves multiple signalling pathways. To understand the temporal dynamics of temperature perception, tests were carried out to determine if there was a daily window of enhanced sensitivity to warm temperature (28 °C). Warm temperature applied during daytime, night-time, or continuously elicited earlier flowering, but the effects of each treatment were unequal. Plants exposed to warm night (WN) conditions flowered nearly as early as those in constant warm (CW) conditions, while treatment with warm days (WD) caused later flowering than either WN or CW. Flowering in each condition relied to varying degrees on the activity of CO , FT , PIF4 , and PIF5 , as well as the action of unknown genes. The combination of signalling pathways involved in flowering depended on the time of the temperature cue. WN treatments caused a significant advance in the rhythmic expression waveform of CO, which correlated with pronounced up-regulation of FT expression, while WD caused limited changes in CO expression and no stimulation of FT expression. WN- and WD-induced flowering was partially CO independent and, unexpectedly, dependent on PIF4 and PIF5 . pif4-2, pif5-3, and pif4-2 pif5-3 mutants had delayed flowering under all three warm conditions. The double mutant was also late flowering in control conditions. In addition, WN conditions alone imposed selective changes to PIF4 and PIF5 expression. Thus, the PIF4 and PIF5 transcription factors promote flowering by at least two means: inducing FT expression in WN and acting outside of FT by an unknown mechanism in WD. PMID:24574484

Spatial and Temporal Changes in Coral Community Responses to Ocean Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkley, H.; Cohen, A. L.

2016-02-01

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature is projected to rise 2-3°C by the end of this century, fueling efforts to identify thermally-tolerant reef communities that have the best chance of surviving future climate change. We used skeletal indicators of thermal stress in massive Porites corals collected across the Palau archipelago to document spatial and temporal changes in community-scale tolerance to anomalous warm events associated with the 1998 and 2010 Pacific ENSOs. Within communities where bleaching was documented by visual surveys, we find a strong correlation between percent bleaching and the proportion of surviving Porites colonies exhibiting skeletal density anomalies or "stress bands". Using this relationship, we reconstructed the intensity and spatial patterns of bleaching during the 1998 ENSO event when survey data are limited. On exposed barrier reefs and inshore fringing reefs, the proportion of corals with 1998 stress bands (60% and 40% respectively) was consistent with that expected from DHW predictions and post-bleaching surveys. Conversely, in the Rock Island bays, where ambient temperatures were highest, no 1998 stress bands were recorded. However, these corals did respond to the 2010 thermal anomaly with the appearance of stress bands and an abrupt decline in calcification. The reasons for this apparent shift in thermal tolerance in response to the relatively weak 2010 warming are not yet clear. While the interplay of temperature with other environmental variables including light and flow cannot yet be ruled out, stressors associated with an increase in human activities, including tourism, on Palau are also considered.

Multi-decadal evolution characteristics of global surface temperature anomaly data shown by observation and CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.

2017-12-01

Based on methods of statistical analysis, the time series of global surface air temperature(SAT) anomalies from 1860-2014 has been defined by three types of phase changes that occur through the division of temperature changes into different stages. The characteristics of the three types of phase changes simulated by CMIP5 models were evaluated. The conclusion is as follows: the SAT from 1860-2014 can be divided into six stages according to trend differences, and this subdivision is proved to be statistically significant. Based on trend analysis and the distribution of slopes between any two points (two points' slope) in every stage, the six stages can be summarized as three phase changes of warming, cooling, and hiatus. Between 1860 and 2014, the world experienced three heating phases (1860-1878, 1909-1942,1975-2004), one cooling phase (1878-1909), and two hiatus phases (1942-1975, 2004-2014).Using the definition method, whether the next year belongs to the previous phase can be estimated. Furthermore, the temperature in 2015 was used as an example to validate the feasibility of this method. The simulations of the heating period by CMIP5 models are well; however the characteristics shown by SAT during the cooling and hiatus period cannot be represented by CMIP5 models. As such, the projections of future heating phases using the CMIP5 models are credible, but for cooling and hiatus events they are unreliable.

Holocene warming in western continental Eurasia driven by glacial retreat and greenhouse forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Jonathan L.; Lachniet, Matthew S.; Chervyatsova, Olga; Asmerom, Yemane; Polyak, Victor J.

2017-06-01

The global temperature evolution during the Holocene is poorly known. Whereas proxy data suggest that warm conditions prevailed in the Early to mid-Holocene with subsequent cooling, model reconstructions show long-term warming associated with ice-sheet retreat and rising greenhouse gas concentrations. One reason for this contradiction could be the under-representation of indicators for winter climate in current global proxy reconstructions. Here we present records of carbon and oxygen isotopes from two U-Th-dated stalagmites from Kinderlinskaya Cave in the southern Ural Mountains that document warming during the winter season from 11,700 years ago to the present. Our data are in line with the global Holocene temperature evolution reconstructed from transient model simulations. We interpret Eurasian winter warming during the Holocene as a response to the retreat of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets until about 7,000 years ago, and to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and winter insolation thereafter. We attribute negative δ18O anomalies 11,000 and 8,200 years ago to enhanced meltwater forcing of North Atlantic Ocean circulation, and a rapid decline of δ13C during the Early Holocene with stabilization after about 10,000 years ago to afforestation at our study site. We conclude that winter climate dynamics dominated Holocene temperature evolution in the continental interior of Eurasia, in contrast to regions more proximal to the ocean.

The effects of reduced ambient temperatures on the warm-up fuel consumption behavior of gasoline fueled automobiles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pucher, G.R.; Gardiner, D.P.; Mallory, R.W.

Warm-up fuel consumption behavior as affected by ambient temperature was evaluated for five OEM gasoline fueled automobiles. Multiple EPA FTP 75 tests were performed with each vehicle at ambient test cell soak temperatures of 25 C and {minus}7 C. Fuel consumption measured during the warm-up (Bag 1, Cold Transient) test segments at these two temperature conditions was compared to the fully warmed Hot Transient (Bag 3) fuel consumption from the 25 C ambient temperature tests (the Bag 1 and Bag 3 segments involve identical speed curves). Fuel consumption increases over the 25 C Bag 3 tests for the two warm-upmore » test conditions were differentiated as those caused by increased drivetrain losses and those caused by intake charge enrichment. Results show wide variations in warm-up behavior among the five vehicles with respect to the relative increases in fuel consumption, and the proportion of the fuel consumption increases attributable to drivetrain losses and enrichment. It was discovered that the most sophisticated vehicle systems do not necessarily facilitate the least degradation in fuel consumption with respect to baseline conditions for the group of vehicles tested.« less

A tale of two springs: using recent climate anomalies to characterize the sensitivity of temperate forest phenology to climate change

Treesearch

Mark A Friedl; Josh M Gray; Eli K Melaas; Andrew D Richardson; Koen Hufkens; Trevor F Keenan; Amey Bailey; John O' Keefe

2014-01-01

By the end of this century, mean annual temperatures in the Northeastern United States are expected to warm by 3-5 °C, which will have significant impacts on the structure and function of temperate forests in this region. To improve understanding of these impacts, we exploited two recent climate anomalies to explore how the springtime phenology of Northeastern...

Spatial Patterns of Variability in Antarctic Surface Temperature: Connections to the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode and the Southern Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwok, Ron; Comiso, Josefino C.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The 17-year (1982-1998) trend in surface temperature shows a general cooling over the Antarctic continent, warming of the sea ice zone, with moderate changes over the oceans. Warming of the peripheral seas is associated with negative trends in the regional sea ice extent. Effects of the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) and the extrapolar Southern Oscillation (SO) on surface temperature are quantified through regression analysis. Positive polarities of the SAM are associated with cold anomalies over most of Antarctica, with the most notable exception of the Antarctic Peninsula. Positive temperature anomalies and ice edge retreat in the Pacific sector are associated with El Nino episodes. Over the past two decades, the drift towards high polarity in the SAM and negative polarity in the SO indices couple to produce a spatial pattern with warmer temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula and peripheral seas, and cooler temperatures over much of East Antarctica.

On the Regulation of the Pacific Warm Pool Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Ming-Dah; Chou, Sue-Hsien; Chan, Pui-King; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

In the tropical western Pacific, regions of the highest sea surface temperature (SST) and the largest cloud cover are found to have the largest surface heating, primarily due to the weak evaporative cooling associated with weak winds. This situation is in variance with the suggestions that the temperature in the Pacific warm pool is regulated either by the reduced solar heating due to an enhanced cloudiness or by the enhanced evaporative cooling due to an elevated SST. It is clear that an enhanced surface heating in an enhanced convection region is not sustainable and must be interrupted by variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation. As the deep convective regions shift away from regions of high SST due primarily to seasonal variation and secondarily to interannual variation of the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation, both trade wind and evaporative cooling in the high SST region increase, leading to a reduction in SST. We conclude that the evaporative cooling associated with the seasonal and interannual variations of trade winds in the primary factor that prevent the warm pool SST from increasing to a value much higher than what is observed.

Mechanism for the recent ocean warming events on the Scotian Shelf of eastern Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brickman, D.; Hebert, D.; Wang, Z.

2018-03-01

In 2012, 2014, and 2015 anomalous warm events were observed in the subsurface waters in the Scotian Shelf region of eastern Canada. Monthly output from a high resolution numerical ocean model simulation of the North Atlantic ocean for the period 1990-2015 is used to investigate this phenomenon. It is found that the model shows skill in simulating the anomaly fields derived from various sources of data, and the observed warming trend over the last decade. From analysis of the model run it is found that the anomalies originate from the interaction between the Gulf Stream and the Labrador Current at the tail of the Grand Banks (south of Newfoundland). This interaction results in the creation of anomalous warm/salty (or cold/fresh) eddies that travel east-to-west along the shelfbreak. These anomalies penetrate into the Gulf of St. Lawrence, onto the Scotian Shelf, and into the Gulf of Maine via deep channels along the shelfbreak. The observed warming trend can be attributed to an increase in the frequency of creation of warm anomalies during the last decade. Strong anomalous events are commonly observed in the data and model, and thus should be considered as part of the natural variability of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system.

Ground temperature enhancements in seismic regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parrot, M.; Pokhotelov, O.; Surkov, V.; Hayakawa, M.

In the past decade, numerous observations of surface and near surface temperature anomalies before earthquakes have been published. Monitoring of the seismo -active regions from space have been made in visible and infrared ranges by various satellites: NOOA satellites, UARS, TERRA and etc. This paper presents some examples of these observations. A review of different mechanisms to explain the phenomenon is given and a more detailed explanation of the mechanism proposed by the authors is presented. It is shown that long term temperature anomalies can arise due to the rock warming resulting from the underground water upward filtrating. However, the short term temperature anomalies observed several days before an earthquake, are due to the change in the specific heat capacity and in the heat conductivity of the soil induced by the variations of the moisture. This research is partially supported by the Commission of the EU (Grant No. INTAS-2001-0456), by ISTC through Research Grant No. 1121 and by Russian Fund for Basic Research through Grant No. 02-05-64612.

Synergistic contribution of precipitation anomalies over northwestern India and the South China Sea to high temperature over the Yangtze River Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ge; Wu, Renguang; Sun, Shuqing; Wang, Huimei

2015-09-01

This study explores the characteristics of high temperature anomalies over eastern China and associated influencing factors using observations and model outputs. Results show that more long-duration (over 8 days) high temperature events occur over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) than over the surrounding regions, and control most of the interannual variation of summer mean temperature in situ. The synergistic effect of summer precipitation over the South China Sea (SCS) region (18°-27°N, 115°-124°E) and the northwestern India and Arabian Sea (IAS) region (18°-27°N, 60°-80°E) contributes more significantly to the variation of summer YRV temperature, relative to the respective SCS or IAS precipitation anomaly. More precipitation (enhanced condensational heating) over the SCS region strengthens the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and simultaneously weakens the westerly trough over the east coast of Asia, and accordingly results in associated high temperature anomalies over the YRV region through stimulating an East Asia-Pacific (EAP) pattern. More precipitation over the IAS region further adjusts the variations of the WPSH and westerly trough, and eventually reinforces high temperature anomalies over the YRV region. Furthermore, the condensational heating related to more IAS precipitation can adjust upper-tropospheric easterly anomalies over the YRV region by exciting a circumglobal teleconnection, inducing cold horizontal temperature advection and related anomalous descent, which is also conducive to the YRV high temperature anomalies. The reproduction of the above association in the model results indicates that the above results can be explained both statistically and dynamically.

Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle

2015-01-01

California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm–dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the “exceptional” 2012–2014 drought in California. PMID:25733875

European temperature responses to blocking and ridge regional patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Pedro M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Barriopedro, David; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Santos, João A.

2018-01-01

Blocking occurrence and its impacts on European temperature have been studied in the last decade. However, most previous studies on blocking impacts have focused on winter only, disregarding its fingerprint in summer and differences with other synoptic patterns that also trigger temperature extremes. In this work, we provide a clear distinction between high-latitude blocking and sub-tropical ridges occurring in three sectors of the Euro-Atlantic region, describing their climatology and consequent impacts on European temperature during both winter and summer. Winter blocks (ridges) are generally associated to colder (warmer) than average conditions over large regions of Europe, in some areas with anomalies larger than 5 °C, particularly for the patterns occurring in the Atlantic and Central European sectors. During summer, there is a more regional response characterized by above average temperature for both blocking and ridge patterns, especially those occurring in continental areas, although negative temperature anomalies persist in southernmost areas during blocking. An objective analysis of the different forcing mechanisms associated to each considered weather regime has been performed, quantifying the importance of the following processes in causing the temperature anomalies: horizontal advection, vertical advection and diabatic heating. While during winter advection processes tend to be more relevant to explain temperature responses, in summer radiative heating under enhanced insolation plays a crucial role for both blocking and ridges. Finally, the changes in the distributions of seasonal temperature and in the frequencies of extreme temperature indices were also examined for specific areas of Europe. Winter blocking and ridge patterns are key drivers in the occurrence of regional cold and warm extreme temperatures, respectively. In summer, they are associated with substantial changes in the frequency of extremely warm days, but with different signatures in

On the compressibility and temperature boundary of warm frozen soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Jilin; Dang, Boxiang; Guo, Xueluan; Sun, Xiaoyu; Yan, Xu

2017-04-01

A silty-clay obtained along the Qinghai-Tibetan railway and a standard Chinese sand were taken as study objects. Saturated frozen soil samples were prepared for testing. Step-load was used and confined compression was carried out on the soils under different temperatures. Compression index and pseudo-preconsolidation pressure (PPC) were obtained. Unlike unfrozen soils, PPC is not associated with stress history. However, it is still the boundary of elastic and plastic deformations. Different compression indexes can be obtained from an individual compression curve under pressures before and after PPC. The parameters at different thermal and stress conditions were analyzed. It is found that temperature plays a critical role in mechanical behaviours of frozen soils. Efforts were then made on the silty-clay in order to suggest a convincing temperature boundary in defining warm frozen soil. Three groups of ice-rich samples with different ice contents were prepared and tested under confined compression. The samples were compressed under a constant load and with 5 stepped temperatures. Strain rates at different temperatures were examined. It was found that the strain rate at around -0.6°C increased abruptly. Analysis of compression index was performed on the data both from our own testing program and from the literature, which showed that at about -1°C was a turning point in the curves for compression index against temperature. Based on both our work and taking into account the unfrozen water content vs. temperature, the range of -1°C to -0.5°C seems to be the temperature where the mechanical properties change greatly. For convenience, -1.0°C can be defined as the boundary for warm frozen soils.

Temperature inverted haloclines provide winter warm-water refugia for manatees in southwest Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stith, Bradley M.; Reid, James P.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; Swain, Eric D.; Doyle, Terry J.; Slone, Daniel H.; Decker, Jeremy D.; Soderqvist, Lars E.

2010-01-01

Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) overwintering in the Ten Thousand Islands and western Everglades have no access to power plants or major artesian springs that provide warm-water refugia in other parts of Florida. Instead, hundreds of manatees aggregate at artificial canals, basins, and natural deep water sites that act as passive thermal refugia (PTR). Monitoring at two canal sites revealed temperature inverted haloclines, which provided warm salty bottom layers that generally remained above temperatures considered adverse for manatees. At the largest PTR, the warmer bottom layer disappeared unless significant salt stratification was maintained by upstream freshwater inflow over a persistent tidal wedge. A detailed three-dimensional hydrology model showed that salinity stratification inhibited vertical convection induced by atmospheric cooling. Management or creation of temperature inverted haloclines may be a feasible and desirable option for resource managers to provide passive thermal refugia for manatees and other temperature sensitive aquatic species.

Regional Contrasts of the Warming Rate over Land Significantly Depend on the Calculation Methods of Mean Air Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kaicun; Zhou, Chunlüe

2016-04-01

Global analyses of surface mean air temperature (Tm) are key datasets for climate change studies and provide fundamental evidences for global warming. However, the causes of regional contrasts in the warming rate revealed by such datasets, i.e., enhanced warming rates over the northern high latitudes and the "warming hole" over the central U.S., are still under debate. Here we show these regional contrasts depends on the calculation methods of Tm. Existing global analyses calculated Tm from daily minimum and maximum temperatures (T2). We found that T2 has a significant standard deviation error of 0.23 °C/decade in depicting the regional warming rate from 2000 to 2013 but can be reduced by two-thirds using Tm calculated from observations at four specific times (T4), which samples diurnal cycle of land surface air temperature more often. From 1973 to 1997, compared with T4, T2 significantly underestimated the warming rate over the central U.S. and overestimated the warming rate over the northern high latitudes. The ratio of the warming rate over China to that over the U.S. reduces from 2.3 by T2 to 1.4 by T4. This study shows that the studies of regional warming can be substantially improved by T4 instead of T2.

Differential responses of invasive and native plants to warming with simulated changes in diurnal temperature ranges.

PubMed

Chen, Bao-Ming; Gao, Yang; Liao, Hui-Xuan; Peng, Shao-Lin

2017-07-01

Although many studies have documented the effects of global warming on invasive plants, little is known about whether the effects of warming on plant invasion differ depending on the imposed change in different diurnal temperature ranges (DTR). We tested the impact of warming with DTR change on seed germination and seedling growth of eight species in the family Asteraceae. Four of these are invasive ( Eupatorium catarium , Mikania micrantha , Biodens pilosa var. radiate , Ageratum conyzoides ) in China, and four are native ( Sonchus arvensis , Senecios candens , Pterocypsela indica , Eupatorium fortunei ). Four temperature treatments were set in growth chambers (three warming by 3 °C with different DTRs and control), and experiments were run to mimic wintertime and summertime conditions. The control treatment ( T c ) was set to the mean temperature for the corresponding time of year, and the three warming treatments were symmetric (i.e. equal night-and-day) (DTR sym ), asymmetric warming with increased (DTR inc ) and decreased (DTR dec ) DTR. The warming treatments did not affect seed germination of invasive species under any of the conditions, but DTR sym and DTR inc increased seed germination of natives relative to the control, suggesting that warming may not increase success of these invasive plant species via effects on seed germination of invasive plants relative to native plants. The invasive plants had higher biomass and greater stem allocation than the native ones under all of the warming treatments. Wintertime warming increased the biomass of the invasive and wintertime DTR sym and DTR inc increased that of the native plants, whereas summertime asymmetric warming decreased the biomass of the invasives but not the natives. Therefore, warming may not facilitate invasion of these invasive species due to the suppressive effects of summertime warming (particularly the asymmetric warming) on growth. Compared with DTR sym , DTR dec decreased the biomass of

Differential responses of invasive and native plants to warming with simulated changes in diurnal temperature ranges

PubMed Central

Chen, Bao-Ming; Gao, Yang; Liao, Hui-Xuan

2017-01-01

Abstract Although many studies have documented the effects of global warming on invasive plants, little is known about whether the effects of warming on plant invasion differ depending on the imposed change in different diurnal temperature ranges (DTR). We tested the impact of warming with DTR change on seed germination and seedling growth of eight species in the family Asteraceae. Four of these are invasive (Eupatorium catarium, Mikania micrantha, Biodens pilosa var. radiate, Ageratum conyzoides) in China, and four are native (Sonchus arvensis, Senecios candens, Pterocypsela indica, Eupatorium fortunei). Four temperature treatments were set in growth chambers (three warming by 3 °C with different DTRs and control), and experiments were run to mimic wintertime and summertime conditions. The control treatment (Tc) was set to the mean temperature for the corresponding time of year, and the three warming treatments were symmetric (i.e. equal night-and-day) (DTRsym), asymmetric warming with increased (DTRinc) and decreased (DTRdec) DTR. The warming treatments did not affect seed germination of invasive species under any of the conditions, but DTRsym and DTRinc increased seed germination of natives relative to the control, suggesting that warming may not increase success of these invasive plant species via effects on seed germination of invasive plants relative to native plants. The invasive plants had higher biomass and greater stem allocation than the native ones under all of the warming treatments. Wintertime warming increased the biomass of the invasive and wintertime DTRsym and DTRinc increased that of the native plants, whereas summertime asymmetric warming decreased the biomass of the invasives but not the natives. Therefore, warming may not facilitate invasion of these invasive species due to the suppressive effects of summertime warming (particularly the asymmetric warming) on growth. Compared with DTRsym, DTRdec decreased the biomass of both the invasive

Influences of spring-to-summer sea surface temperatures over different Indian Ocean domains on the Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhenning; Yang, Song

2017-11-01

The influences of spring-to-summer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in different domains of the Indian Ocean (IO) on the Asian summer monsoon are investigated by conducting a series of numerical experiments using the NCAR CAM4 model. It is found that, to a certain extent, the springtime IO SST anomalies can persist to the summer season. The spring-to-summer IO SST anomalies associated with the IO basin warming mode are strongly linked to the summer climate over Asia, especially the South Asian monsoon (SAM) and the East Asian monsoon. Among this connection, the warming of tropical IO plays the most critical role, and the warming of southern IO is important for monsoon variation and prediction prior to the full development of the monsoon. The atmospheric response to IO basin wide warming is similar with that to tropical IO warming. The influence of northern IO warming on the SAM, however, is opposite to the effect of southern IO warming. Meanwhile, the discrepancies between the results from idealized SST forcing simulations and observations, especially for the southern IO, reveal that the dominant role of air-sea interaction in the monsoon-IO coupled system cannot be ignored. Moreover, the springtime northern IO warming seems to favor an early onset or a stronger persistence of the SAM.

Meta-analysis of warmed versus standard temperature CO2 insufflation for laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

PubMed

Hakeem, Abdul R; Birks, Theodore; Azeem, Qasim; Di Franco, Filippo; Gergely, Szabolcs; Harris, Adrian M

2016-06-01

There is conflicting evidence for the use of warmed, humidified carbon dioxide (CO2) for creating pneumoperitoneum during laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Few studies have reported less post-operative pain and analgesic requirement when warmed CO2 was used. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to analyse the literature on the use of warmed CO2 in comparison to standard temperature CO2 during laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Systematic review and meta-analysis carried out in line with the PRISMA guidelines. Primary outcomes of interest were post-operative pain at 6 h, day 1 and day 2 following laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Secondary outcomes were analgesic usage and drop in intra-operative core body temperature. Standard Mean Difference (SMD) was calculated for continuous variables. Six randomised controlled trials (RCTs) met the inclusion criteria (n = 369). There was no significant difference in post-operative pain at 6 h [3 RCTs; SMD = -0.66 (-1.33, 0.02) (Z = 1.89) (P = 0.06)], day 1 [4 RCTs; SMD = -0.51 (-1.47, 0.44) (Z = 1.05) (P = 0.29)] and day 2 [2 RCTs; SMD = -0.96 (-2.30, 0.37) (Z = 1.42) (P = 0.16)] between the warmed CO2 and standard CO2 group. There was no difference in analgesic usage between the two groups, but pooled analysis was not possible. Two RCTs reported significant drop in intra-operative core body temperature, but there were no adverse events related to this. This review showed no difference in post-operative pain and analgesic requirements between the warmed and standard CO2 insufflation during laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Currently there is not enough high quality evidence to suggest routine usage of warmed CO2 for creating pneumoperitoneum during laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Copyright © 2015 Royal College of Surgeons of Edinburgh (Scottish charity number SC005317) and Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

PubMed

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-07

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

PubMed

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-20

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

PubMed Central

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-01-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming. PMID:28317914

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Warmed, humidified CO2 insufflation benefits intraoperative core temperature during laparoscopic surgery: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dean, Meara; Ramsay, Robert; Heriot, Alexander; Mackay, John; Hiscock, Richard; Lynch, A Craig

2017-05-01

Intraoperative hypothermia is linked to postoperative adverse events. The use of warmed, humidified CO 2 to establish pneumoperitoneum during laparoscopy has been associated with reduced incidence of intraoperative hypothermia. However, the small number and variable quality of published studies have caused uncertainty about the potential benefit of this therapy. This meta-analysis was conducted to specifically evaluate the effects of warmed, humidified CO 2 during laparoscopy. An electronic database search identified randomized controlled trials performed on adults who underwent laparoscopic abdominal surgery under general anesthesia with either warmed, humidified CO 2 or cold, dry CO 2 . The main outcome measure of interest was change in intraoperative core body temperature. The database search identified 320 studies as potentially relevant, and of these, 13 met the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. During laparoscopic surgery, use of warmed, humidified CO 2 is associated with a significant increase in intraoperative core temperature (mean temperature change, 0.3°C), when compared with cold, dry CO 2 insufflation . CONCLUSION: Warmed, humidified CO 2 insufflation during laparoscopic abdominal surgery has been demonstrated to improve intraoperative maintenance of normothermia when compared with cold, dry CO 2. © 2016 The Authors. Asian Journal of Endoscopic Surgery published by Asia Endosurgery Task Force and Japan Society of Endoscopic Surgery and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

The effects of core and peripheral warming methods on temperature and physiologic variables in injured children.

PubMed

Bernardo, L M; Gardner, M J; Lucke, J; Ford, H

2001-04-01

Injured children are at risk for thermoregulatory compromise, where temperature maintenance mechanisms are overwhelmed by severe injury, environmental exposure, and resuscitation measures. Adequate thermoregulation can be maintained, and heat loss can be prevented, by core (administration of warmed intravenous fluid) and peripheral (application of convective air warming) methods. It is not known which warming method is better to maintain thermoregulation and prevent heat loss in injured children during their trauma resuscitations. The purpose of this feasibility study was to compare the effects of core and peripheral warming measures on body temperature and physiologic changes in a small sample of injured children during their initial emergency department (ED) treatment. A prospective, randomized experimental design was used. Eight injured children aged 3 to 14 years (mean = 6.87, SD = 3.44 ) treated in the ED of Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh were enrolled. Physiologic responses (eg, heart rate, blood pressure, respiratory rate, arterial oxygen saturation, core, peripheral temperatures) and level of consciousness were continuously measured and recorded every 5 minutes to detect early thermoregulatory compromise and to determine the child's response to warming. Data were collected throughout the resuscitation period, including transport to CT scan, the inpatient nursing unit, intensive care unit, operating room or discharge to home. Core warming was accomplished with the Hotline Fluid Warmer (Sims Level 1, Inc., Rockland, MA), and peripheral warming was accomplished with the Snuggle Warm Convective Warming System (Sins Level 1, Inc., Rockland, MA). Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. There were no statistically significant differences between the two groups on age (t = -0.485, P = 0.645); weight (t = -0.005, P = 0.996); amount of prehospital intravenous (IV) fluid (t = 0314, P = 0.766); temperature on ED arrival (t = 0.287, P = 0

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

PubMed

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets

PubMed Central

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951–1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as “extremely hot”. The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by “extremely hot” summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low. PMID:26090931

Interactions between rates of temperature change and acclimation affect latitudinal patterns of warming tolerance

PubMed Central

Allen, Jessica L; Chown, Steven L; Janion-Scheepers, Charlene; Clusella-Trullas, Susana

2016-01-01

Abstract Critical thermal limits form an increasing component of the estimation of impacts of global change on ectotherms. Whether any consistent patterns exist in the interactive effects of rates of temperature change (or experimental ramping rates) and acclimation on critical thermal limits and warming tolerance (one way of assessing sensitivity to climate change) is, however, far from clear. Here, we examine the interacting effects of ramping rate and acclimation on the critical thermal maxima (CTmax) and minima (CTmin) and warming tolerance of six species of springtails from sub-tropical, temperate and polar regions. We also provide microhabitat temperatures from 26 sites spanning 5 years in order to benchmark environmentally relevant rates of temperature change. Ramping rate has larger effects than acclimation on CTmax, but the converse is true for CTmin. Responses to rate and acclimation effects are more consistent among species for CTmax than for CTmin. In the latter case, interactions among ramping rate and acclimation are typical of polar species, less marked for temperate ones, and reduced in species from the sub-tropics. Ramping rate and acclimation have substantial effects on estimates of warming tolerance, with the former being more marked. At the fastest ramping rates (>1.0°C/min), tropical species have estimated warming tolerances similar to their temperate counterparts, whereas at slow ramping rates (<0.4°C/min) the warming tolerance is much reduced in tropical species. Rates of temperate change in microhabitats relevant to the springtails are typically <0.05°C/min, with rare maxima of 0.3–0.5°C/min depending on the site. These findings emphasize the need to consider the environmental setting and experimental conditions when assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change using a warming tolerance approach. PMID:27933165

Interactions between rates of temperature change and acclimation affect latitudinal patterns of warming tolerance.

PubMed

Allen, Jessica L; Chown, Steven L; Janion-Scheepers, Charlene; Clusella-Trullas, Susana

2016-01-01

Critical thermal limits form an increasing component of the estimation of impacts of global change on ectotherms. Whether any consistent patterns exist in the interactive effects of rates of temperature change (or experimental ramping rates) and acclimation on critical thermal limits and warming tolerance (one way of assessing sensitivity to climate change) is, however, far from clear. Here, we examine the interacting effects of ramping rate and acclimation on the critical thermal maxima (CTmax) and minima (CTmin) and warming tolerance of six species of springtails from sub-tropical, temperate and polar regions. We also provide microhabitat temperatures from 26 sites spanning 5 years in order to benchmark environmentally relevant rates of temperature change. Ramping rate has larger effects than acclimation on CTmax, but the converse is true for CTmin. Responses to rate and acclimation effects are more consistent among species for CTmax than for CTmin. In the latter case, interactions among ramping rate and acclimation are typical of polar species, less marked for temperate ones, and reduced in species from the sub-tropics. Ramping rate and acclimation have substantial effects on estimates of warming tolerance, with the former being more marked. At the fastest ramping rates (>1.0°C/min), tropical species have estimated warming tolerances similar to their temperate counterparts, whereas at slow ramping rates (<0.4°C/min) the warming tolerance is much reduced in tropical species. Rates of temperate change in microhabitats relevant to the springtails are typically <0.05°C/min, with rare maxima of 0.3-0.5°C/min depending on the site. These findings emphasize the need to consider the environmental setting and experimental conditions when assessing species' vulnerability to climate change using a warming tolerance approach.

Effects of a Circulating-water Garment and Forced-air Warming on Body Heat Content and Core Temperature

PubMed Central

Taguchi, Akiko; Ratnaraj, Jebadurai; Kabon, Barbara; Sharma, Neeru; Lenhardt, Rainer; Sessler, Daniel I.

2005-01-01

Background: Forced-air warming is sometimes unable to maintain perioperative normothermia. We therefore compared heat transfer, regional heat distribution, and core rewarming of forced-air warming with a novel circulating-water garment. Methods: Nine volunteers were each evaluated on two randomly ordered study days. They were anesthetized and cooled to a core temperature near 34°C. The volunteers were subsequently warmed for 2.5 hours with either a circulating-water garment or forced-air cover. Overall, heat balance was determined from the difference between cutaneous heat loss (thermal flux transducers) and metabolic heat production (oxygen consumption). Average arm and leg (peripheral) tissue temperatures were determined from 18 intramuscular needle thermocouples, 15 skin thermal flux transducers, and “deep” arm and foot thermometers. Results: Heat production (≈ 60 kcal/h) and loss (≈45 kcal/h) were similar with each treatment before warming. The increase in heat transfer across anterior portions of the skin surface was similar with each warming system (≈65 kcal/h). Forced-air warming had no effect on posterior heat transfer whereas circulating-water transferred 21 ± 9 kcal/h through the posterior skin surface after a half hour of warming. Over 2.5 h, circulating-water thus increased body heat content 56% more than forced air. Core temperatures thus increased faster than with circulating water than forced air, especially during the first hour, with the result that core temperature was 1.1 ± 0.7°C greater after 2.5 h (P < 0.001). Peripheral tissue heat content increased twice as much as core heat content with each device, but the core-to-peripheral tissue temperature gradient remained positive throughout the study. Conclusions: The circulating-water system transferred more heat than forced air, with the difference resulting largely from posterior heating. Circulating water rewarmed patients 0.4°C/h faster than forced air. A substantial peripheral

Warm up I: potential mechanisms and the effects of passive warm up on exercise performance.

PubMed

Bishop, David

2003-01-01

Despite limited scientific evidence supporting their effectiveness, warm-up routines prior to exercise are a well-accepted practice. The majority of the effects of warm up have been attributed to temperature-related mechanisms (e.g. decreased stiffness, increased nerve-conduction rate, altered force-velocity relationship, increased anaerobic energy provision and increased thermoregulatory strain), although non-temperature-related mechanisms have also been proposed (e.g. effects of acidaemia, elevation of baseline oxygen consumption (.VO(2)) and increased postactivation potentiation). It has also been hypothesised that warm up may have a number of psychological effects (e.g. increased preparedness). Warm-up techniques can be broadly classified into two major categories: passive warm up or active warm up. Passive warm up involves raising muscle or core temperature by some external means, while active warm up utilises exercise. Passive heating allows one to obtain the increase in muscle or core temperature achieved by active warm up without depleting energy substrates. Passive warm up, although not practical for most athletes, also allows one to test the hypothesis that many of the performance changes associated with active warm up can be largely attributed to temperature-related mechanisms.

Phylogeographic differentiation versus transcriptomic adaptation to warm temperatures in Zostera marina, a globally important seagrass.

PubMed

Jueterbock, A; Franssen, S U; Bergmann, N; Gu, J; Coyer, J A; Reusch, T B H; Bornberg-Bauer, E; Olsen, J L

2016-11-01

Populations distributed across a broad thermal cline are instrumental in addressing adaptation to increasing temperatures under global warming. Using a space-for-time substitution design, we tested for parallel adaptation to warm temperatures along two independent thermal clines in Zostera marina, the most widely distributed seagrass in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. A North-South pair of populations was sampled along the European and North American coasts and exposed to a simulated heatwave in a common-garden mesocosm. Transcriptomic responses under control, heat stress and recovery were recorded in 99 RNAseq libraries with ~13 000 uniquely annotated, expressed genes. We corrected for phylogenetic differentiation among populations to discriminate neutral from adaptive differentiation. The two southern populations recovered faster from heat stress and showed parallel transcriptomic differentiation, as compared with northern populations. Among 2389 differentially expressed genes, 21 exceeded neutral expectations and were likely involved in parallel adaptation to warm temperatures. However, the strongest differentiation following phylogenetic correction was between the three Atlantic populations and the Mediterranean population with 128 of 4711 differentially expressed genes exceeding neutral expectations. Although adaptation to warm temperatures is expected to reduce sensitivity to heatwaves, the continued resistance of seagrass to further anthropogenic stresses may be impaired by heat-induced downregulation of genes related to photosynthesis, pathogen defence and stress tolerance. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Extremely Low Frequency Electromagnetic Field from Convective Air Warming System on Temperature Selection and Distance.

PubMed

Cho, Kwang Rae; Kim, Myoung-Hun; Ko, Myoung Jin; Jung, Jae Wook; Lee, Ki Hwa; Park, Yei-Heum; Kim, Yong Han; Kim, Ki Hoon; Kim, Jin Soo

2014-12-01

Hypothermia generates potentially severe complications in operating or recovery room. Forced air warmer is effective to maintain body temperature. Extremely low frequency electromagnetic field (ELF-EMF) is harmful to human body and mainly produced by electronic equipment including convective air warming system. We investigated ELF-EMF from convective air warming device on various temperature selection and distance for guideline to protect medical personnel and patients. The intensity of ELF-EMF was measured as two-second interval for five minutes on various distance (0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5 and 1meter) and temperature selection (high, medium, low and ambient). All of electrical devices were off including lamp, computer and air conditioner. Groups were compared using one-way ANOVA. P<0.05 was considered significant. Mean values of ELF-EMF on the distance of 30 cm were 18.63, 18.44, 18.23 and 17.92 milligauss (mG) respectively (high, medium, low and ambient temperature set). ELF-EMF of high temperature set was higher than data of medium, low and ambient set in all the distances. ELF-EMF from convective air warming system is higher in condition of more close location and higher temperature. ELF-EMF within thirty centimeters exceeds 2mG recommended by Swedish TCO guideline.

Atmospheric forcing of sea ice anomalies in the Ross Sea Polynya region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dale, Ethan; McDonald, Adrian; Rack, Wolfgang

2016-04-01

Despite warming trends in global temperatures, sea ice extent in the southern hemisphere has shown an increasing trend over recent decades. Wind-driven sea ice export from coastal polynyas is an important source of sea ice production. Areas of major polynyas in the Ross Sea, the region with largest increase in sea ice extent, have been suggested to produce the vast amount of the sea ice in the region. We investigate the impacts of strong wind events on polynyas and the subsequent sea ice production. We utilize Bootstrap sea ice concentration (SIC) measurements derived from satellite based, Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) brightness temperature images. These are compared with surface wind measurements made by automatic weather stations of the University of Wisconsin-Madison Antarctic Meteorology Program. Our analysis focusses on the winter period defined as 1st April to 1st November in this study. Wind data was used to classify each day into characteristic regimes based on the change of wind speed. For each regime, a composite of SIC anomaly was formed for the Ross Sea region. We found that persistent weak winds near the edge of the Ross Ice Shelf are generally associated with positive SIC anomalies in the Ross Sea polynya area (RSP). Conversely we found negative SIC anomalies in this area during persistent strong winds. By analyzing sea ice motion vectors derived from SSM/I brightness temperatures, we find significant sea ice motion anomalies throughout the Ross Sea during strong wind events. These anomalies persist for several days after the strong wing event. Strong, negative correlations are found between SIC within the RSP and wind speed indicating that strong winds cause significant advection of sea ice in the RSP. This rapid decrease in SIC is followed by a more gradual recovery in SIC. This increase occurs on a time scale greater than the average persistence of strong wind events and the resulting Sea ice motion anomalies, highlighting the production

Bud break responds more strongly to daytime than night-time temperature under asymmetric experimental warming.

PubMed

Rossi, Sergio; Isabel, Nathalie

2017-01-01

Global warming is diurnally asymmetric, leading to a less cold, rather than warmer, climate. We investigated the effects of asymmetric experimental warming on plant phenology by testing the hypothesis that daytime warming is more effective in advancing bud break than night-time warming. Bud break was monitored daily in Picea mariana seedlings belonging to 20 provenances from Eastern Canada and subjected to daytime and night-time warming in growth chambers at temperatures varying between 8 and 16 °C. The higher advancements of bud break and shorter times required to complete the phenological phases occurred with daytime warming. Seedlings responded to night-time warming, but still with less advancement of bud break than under daytime warming. No advancement was observed when night-time warming was associated with a daytime cooling. The effect of the treatments was uniform across provenances. Our observations realized under controlled conditions allowed to experimentally demonstrate that bud break can advance under night-time warming, but to a lesser extent than under daytime warming. Prediction models using daily timescales could neglect the diverging influence of asymmetric warming and should be recalibrated for higher temporal resolutions. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Catalytic power of enzymes decreases with temperature: New insights for understanding soil C cycling and microbial ecology under warming.

PubMed

Alvarez, Gaël; Shahzad, Tanvir; Andanson, Laurence; Bahn, Michael; Wallenstein, Matthew D; Fontaine, Sébastien

2018-04-23

Most current models of soil C dynamics predict that climate warming will accelerate soil C mineralization, resulting in a long-term CO 2 release and positive feedback to global warming. However, ecosystem warming experiments show that CO 2 loss from warmed soils declines to control levels within a few years. Here, we explore the temperature dependence of enzymatic conversion of polymerized soil organic C (SOC) into assimilable compounds, which is presumed the rate-limiting step of SOC mineralization. Combining literature review, modelling and enzyme assays, we studied the effect of temperature on activity of enzymes considering their thermal inactivation and catalytic activity. We defined the catalytic power of enzymes (E power ) as the cumulative amount of degraded substrate by one unit of enzyme until its complete inactivation. We show a universal pattern of enzyme's thermodynamic properties: activation energy of catalytic activity (EA cat ) < activation energy of thermal inactivation (EA inact ). By investing in stable enzymes (high EA inact ) having high catalytic activity (low EA cat ), microorganisms may maximize the E power of their enzymes. The counterpart of such EAs' hierarchical pattern is the higher relative temperature sensitivity of enzyme inactivation than catalysis, resulting in a reduction in E power under warming. Our findings could explain the decrease with temperature in soil enzyme pools, microbial biomass (MB) and carbon use efficiency (CUE) reported in some warming experiments and studies monitoring the seasonal variation in soil enzymes. They also suggest that a decrease in soil enzyme pools due to their faster inactivation under warming contributes to the observed attenuation of warming effect on soil C mineralization. This testable theory predicts that the ultimate response of SOC degradation to warming can be positive or negative depending on the relative temperature response of E power and microbial production of enzymes. © 2018 John

Resolving an anomaly in electron temperature measurement using double and triple Langmuir probes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Soumen; Barada, K. K.; Chattopadhyay, P. K.; Ghosh, J.; Bora, D.

2015-02-01

Langmuir probes with variants such as single, double and triple probes remain the most common method of electron temperature measurement in low-temperature laboratory plasmas. However, proper estimation of electron temperature mainly using triple probe configuration requires the proper choice of compensation factor (W). Determination of the compensating factor is not very straightforward as it depends heavily on plasma floating potential (Vf), electron temperature (Te), the type of gas used for plasma production and the bias voltage applied to probe pins, especially in cases where there are substantial variations in floating potential. In this paper we highlight the anomaly in electron temperature measurement using double and triple Langmuir probe techniques as well as the proper determination of the compensation factor (W) to overcome this anomaly. Experiments are carried out with helicon antenna producing inductive radiofrequency plasmas, where significant variation of floating potential along the axis enables a detailed study of deviations introduced in Te measurements using triple probes compared to double and single probes. It is observed that the bias voltage between the probe pins of the triple probes plays an important role in the accurate determination of the compensating factor (W) and should be in the range (5Vd2 < Vd3 < 10Vd2), where Vd2 and Vd3 are the voltage between floating probe pins 2 and 1 and the bias voltage, respectively.

Mean-state SST Response to global warming caused by the ENSO Nonlinearity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohyama, T.; Hartmann, D. L.

2017-12-01

The majority of the models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) exhibit El Niño-like trends under global warming. GFDL-ESM2M, however, is an exception that exhibits a La Niña-like response with strengthened trade winds. Our previous studies have shown that this La Niña-like trend could be a physically consistent warming response, and we proposed the Nonlinear ENSO Warming Suppression (NEWS) mechanism to explain this La Niña-like response to global warming. The most important necessary condition of NEWS is the ENSO skewness (El Niños are stronger than La Niñas). Most CMIP5 models do not reproduce the observed ENSO skewness, while GFDL-ESM2M exhibits the realistic ENSO skewness, which suggests that, despite being in the minority, the La Niña-like trend of GFDL-ESM2M could be a plausible equatorial Pacific response to warming. In this study, we introduce another interesting outlier, MIROC5, which reproduces the observed skewness, yet exhibits an El Niño-like response. By decomposing the source of the ENSO nonlinearity into the following three components: "SST anomalies modulate winds", "winds excite oceanic waves", and "oceanic waves modulate the subsurface temperature", we show that the large inter-model spread of the third component appears to explain the most important cause of the poor reproducibility of the ENSO nonlinearity in CMIP5 models. It is concluded that the change in the response of subsurface temperature to oceanic waves is the primary explanation for the different warming response of GFDL-ESM2M and MIROC5. Our analyses suggest that the difference of the warming response are caused by difference in the climatological thermal stratification. This study may shed new light on the fundamental question of why observed ENSO has a strong skewness and on the implications of this skewed ENSO for the mean-state sea surface temperature response to global warming.

Regional difference of the vertical structure of seasonal thermocline and its impact on sea surface temperature in the North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamaguchi, R.; Suga, T.

2016-12-01

Recent observational studies show that, during the warming season, a large amount of heat flux is penetrated through the base of thin mixed layer by vertical eddy diffusion, in addition to penetration of solar radiation [1]. In order to understand this heat penetration process due to vertical eddy diffusivity and its contribution to seasonal variation of sea surface temperature, we investigated the evolution of thermal stratification below the summertime thin mixed layer (i.e. evolution of seasonal thermocline) and its vertical structure in the North Pacific using high vertical resolution temperature profile observed by Argo floats. We quantified the vertical structure of seasonal thermocline as deviations from the linear structure where the vertical gradient of temperature is constant, that is, "shape anomaly". The shape anomaly is variable representing the extent of the bend of temperature profiles. We found that there are larger values of shape anomaly in the region where the seasonal sea surface temperature warming is relatively faster. To understand the regional difference of shape anomalies, we investigated the relationship between time changes in shape anomalies and net surface heat flux and surface kinetic energy flux. From May to July, the analysis indicated that, in a large part of North Pacific, there's a tendency for shape anomalies to develop strongly (weakly) under the conditions of large (small) downward net surface heat flux and small (large) downward surface kinetic energy flux. Since weak (strong) development of shape anomalies means efficient (inefficient) downward heat transport from the surface, these results suggest that the regional difference of the downward heat penetration below mixed layer is explained reasonably well by differences in surface heat forcing and surface wind forcing in a vertical one dimensional framework. [1] Hosoda et al. (2015), J. Oceanogr., 71, 541-556.

An analysis of the relationship between cloud anomalies and sea surface temperature anomalies in a global circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, Thomas C.; Barnett, Tim P.; Roeckner, Erich; Vonder Haar, Thomas H.

1992-01-01

The relationship between the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and the anomalies of the monthly mean cloud cover (including the high-level, low-level, and total cloud cover), the outgoing longwave radiation, and the reflected solar radiation was analyzed using a least absolute deviations regression at each grid point over the open ocean for a 6-yr period. The results indicate that cloud change in association with a local 1-C increase in SSTAs cannot be used to predict clouds in a potential future world where all the oceans are 1-C warmer than at present, because much of the observed cloud changes are due to circulation changes, which in turn are related not only to changes in SSTAs but to changes in SSTA gradients. However, because SSTAs are associated with changes in the local ocean-atmosphere moisture and heat fluxes as well as significant changes in circulation (such as ENSO), SSTAs can serve as a surrogate for many aspects of global climate change.

Oligocene sea water temperatures offshore Wilkes Land (Antarctica) indicate warm and stable glacial-interglacial variation and show no 'late Oligocene warming'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartman, Julian; Bijl, Peter; Peterse, Francien; Schouten, Stefan; Salabarnada, Ariadna; Bohaty, Steven; Escutia, Carlota; Brinkhuis, Henk; Sangiorgi, Francesca

2017-04-01

At present, warming of the waters below the Antarctic ice shelves is a major contributor to the instability of the Antarctic cryosphere. In order to get insight into future melt behavior of the Antarctic ice sheet, it is important to look at past warm periods that can serve as an analogue for the future. The Oligocene ( 34-23 Ma) is a period within the range of CO2 concentrations predicted by the latest IPCC report for the coming century and is characterized by a very dynamic Antarctic ice sheet, as suggested by benthic δ18O records from ice-distal sites. We suspect that, like today, environmental changes in the Southern Ocean are in part responsible for this dynamicity. To gain more insight into this, we have reconstructed sea water temperatures (SWT) based on Thaumarchaeotal lipids (TEX86) for the Oligocene record obtained from the ice-proximal Site U1356 (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program), offshore Wilkes Land. Part of our record shows a strong coupling between the lithology and SWT, which we attribute to glacial-interglacial variation. Our data shows that both glacial and interglacial temperatures are relatively warm throughout the Oligocene: 14°C and 18°C respectively, which is consistent with previously published estimates based on UK'37 and clumped isotopes for the early Oligocene. Our SST records show only a minor decline between 30 and 24 Ma, and thus show no evidence for a 'late Oligocene warming' as was suggested based on benthic δ18O records from low latitudes. Instead, the discrepancy between our SST trend and the δ18O trend suggests that the late-Oligocene benthic δ18O decrease is likely related to a decline in ice volume. After 24 Ma, however, glacial-interglacial temperature variation appears to increase. In particular, some large temperature drops occur, one of which can be related to the Mi-1 event and a major expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet.

Ocean heat budget analysis on sea surface temperature anomaly in western Indian Ocean during strong-weak Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fathrio, Ibnu; Manda, Atsuyoshi; Iizuka, Satoshi; Kodama, Yasu-Masa; Ishida, Sachinobu

2018-05-01

This study presents ocean heat budget analysis on seas surface temperature (SST) anomalies during strong-weak Asian summer monsoon (southwest monsoon). As discussed by previous studies, there was close relationship between variations of Asian summer monsoon and SST anomaly in western Indian Ocean. In this study we utilized ocean heat budget analysis to elucidate the dominant mechanism that is responsible for generating SST anomaly during weak-strong boreal summer monsoon. Our results showed ocean advection plays more important role to initate SST anomaly than the atmospheric prcess (surface heat flux). Scatterplot analysis showed that vertical advection initiated SST anomaly in western Arabian Sea and southwestern Indian Ocean, while zonal advection initiated SST anomaly in western equatorial Indian Ocean.

Inter-Relationship Between Subtropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature, Arctic Sea Ice Concentration, and the North Atlantic Oscillation in Recent Summers and Winters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Cullather, Richard I.; Nowicki, Sophie M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2017-01-01

The inter-relationship between subtropical western-central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are investigated for the last 37 summers and winters (1980-2016). Lag-correlation of the STWCPSST×(-1) in spring with the NAO phase and SICBS in summer increases over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.4-0.5 with significance at 5 percent, while winter has strong correlations in approximately 1985-2005. Observational analysis and the atmospheric general circulation model experiments both suggest that STWCPSST warming acts to increase the Arctic geopotential height and temperature in the following season. This atmospheric response extends to Greenland, providing favorable conditions for developing the negative phase of the NAO. SIC and surface albedo tend to decrease over the Beaufort Sea in summer, linked to the positive surface net shortwave flux. Energy balance considering radiative and turbulent fluxes reveal that available energy that can heat surface is larger over the Arctic and Greenland and smaller over the south of Greenland, in response to the STWCPSST warming in spring. XXXX Arctic & Atlantic: Positive upper-level height/T anomaly over the Arctic and Greenland, and a negative anomaly over the central-eastern Atlantic, resembling the (-) phase of the NAO. Pacific: The negative height/T anomaly over the mid-latitudes, along with the positive anomaly over the STWCP, where 1degC warming above climatology is prescribed. Discussion: It is likely that the Arctic gets warm and the NAO is in the negative phase in response to the STWCP warming. But, there are other factors (e.g., internal variability) that contribute to determination of the NAO phase: not always the negative phase of the NAO in the event of STWCP warming (e.g.: recent winters and near neutral NAO in 2017 summer).

Hiatus on the upward staircase of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, S. P.; Kosaka, Y.

2016-12-01

Since the 19th century, global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has risen in staircase-like stages due to contributions from both radiative forcing and internal variability. Our earlier study showed that tropical Pacific variability, specifically the La Nina-like cooling, caused the current hiatus of global warming. We have extended the Pacific Ocean-Global Atmosphere (POGA) pacemaker experiment back to the late 19th century, by restoring tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies towards the observed history. POGA reproduces annual-mean GMST variability with high correlation. We quantify relative contributions from the radiative forcing and tropical Pacific variability for various epochs of the staircase. Beyond the global mean, POGA also captures observed regional trends of surface temperature for these periods, especially over the tropical Indian Ocean, Indian subcontinent, North and South Pacific and North America. The POGA effect for the recent hiatus is comparable in magnitude with that at the beginning of the 20th century, but lasts the longest in duration over the past 150 years. The attendant strengthening of the Pacific trade winds since the 1990s is unprecedented on the instrumental record. To the extent that POGA captures much of the internal variability in GMST, we can infer radiatively forced GMST response. This method has the advantage of being independent of the model's radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. While raw data show a warming of 0.9 degree C for the recent five-year period of 2010-2014 relative to 1900, our new calculation yields a much higher anthropogenic warming of 1.2 C after correcting for the internal variability effect. This indicates that the task is more challenging than thought to implement the Paris consensus of limiting global average temperature change to below 2 C above preindustrial levels.

On the influence of simulated SST warming on rainfall projections in the Indo-Pacific domain: an AGCM study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Huqiang; Zhao, Y.; Moise, A.; Ye, H.; Colman, R.; Roff, G.; Zhao, M.

2018-02-01

Significant uncertainty exists in regional climate change projections, particularly for rainfall and other hydro-climate variables. In this study, we conduct a series of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments with different future sea surface temperature (SST) warming simulated by a range of coupled climate models. They allow us to assess the extent to which uncertainty from current coupled climate model rainfall projections can be attributed to their simulated SST warming. Nine CMIP5 model-simulated global SST warming anomalies have been super-imposed onto the current SSTs simulated by the Australian climate model ACCESS1.3. The ACCESS1.3 SST-forced experiments closely reproduce rainfall means and interannual variations as in its own fully coupled experiments. Although different global SST warming intensities explain well the inter-model difference in global mean precipitation changes, at regional scales the SST influence vary significantly. SST warming explains about 20-25% of the patterns of precipitation changes in each of the four/five models in its rainfall projections over the oceans in the Indo-Pacific domain, but there are also a couple of models in which different SST warming explains little of their precipitation pattern changes. The influence is weaker again for rainfall changes over land. Roughly similar levels of contribution can be attributed to different atmospheric responses to SST warming in these models. The weak SST influence in our study could be due to the experimental setup applied: superimposing different SST warming anomalies onto the same SSTs simulated for current climate by ACCESS1.3 rather than directly using model-simulated past and future SSTs. Similar modelling and analysis from other modelling groups with more carefully designed experiments are needed to tease out uncertainties caused by different SST warming patterns, different SST mean biases and different model physical/dynamical responses to the same underlying

Impact of the ocean diurnal cycle on the North Atlantic mean sea surface temperatures in a regionally coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guemas, Virginie; Salas-Mélia, David; Kageyama, Masa; Giordani, Hervé; Voldoire, Aurore

2013-03-01

This study investigates the mechanisms by which the ocean diurnal cycle can affect the ocean mean state in the North Atlantic region. We perform two ocean-atmosphere regionally coupled simulations (20°N-80°N, 80°W-40°E) using the CNRMOM1D ocean model coupled to the ARPEGE4 atmospheric model: one with a 1 h coupling frequency (C1h) and another with a 24 h coupling frequency (C24h). The comparison between both experiments shows that accounting for the ocean diurnal cycle tends to warm up the surface ocean at high latitudes and cool it down in the subtropics during the boreal summer season (June-August). In the subtropics, the leading cause for the formation of the negative surface temperature anomalies is the fact that the nocturnal entrainment heat flux overcompensates the diurnal absorption of solar heat flux. Both in the subtropics and in the high latitudes, the surface temperature anomalies are involved in a positive feedback loop: the cold (warm) surface anomalies favour a decrease (increase) in evaporation, a decrease (increase) in tropospheric humidity, a decrease (increase) in downwelling longwave radiative flux which in turn favours the surface cooling (warming). Furthermore, the decrease in meridional sea surface temperature gradient affects the large-scale atmospheric circulation by a decrease in the zonal mean flow.

Drivers of Arctic Ocean warming in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgard, Clara; Notz, Dirk

2017-05-01

We investigate changes in the Arctic Ocean energy budget simulated by 26 general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 framework. Our goal is to understand whether the Arctic Ocean warming between 1961 and 2099 is primarily driven by changes in the net atmospheric surface flux or by changes in the meridional oceanic heat flux. We find that the simulated Arctic Ocean warming is driven by positive anomalies in the net atmospheric surface flux in 11 models, by positive anomalies in the meridional oceanic heat flux in 11 models, and by positive anomalies in both energy fluxes in four models. The different behaviors are mainly characterized by the different changes in meridional oceanic heat flux that lead to different changes in the turbulent heat loss to the atmosphere. The multimodel ensemble mean is hence not representative of a consensus across the models in Arctic climate projections.

Skeletal anomaly assessment in diploid and triploid juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) and the effect of temperature in freshwater.

PubMed

Amoroso, G; Adams, M B; Ventura, T; Carter, C G; Cobcroft, J M

2016-04-01

Triploid Atlantic salmon tend to develop a higher prevalence of skeletal anomalies. This tendency may be exacerbated by an inadequate rearing temperature. Early juvenile all-female diploid and triploid Atlantic salmon were screened for skeletal anomalies in consecutive experiments to include two size ranges: the first tested the effect of ploidy (0.2-8 g) and the second the effect of ploidy, temperature (14 °C and 18 °C) and their interaction (8-60 g). The first experiment showed that ploidy had no effect on skeletal anomaly prevalence. A high prevalence of opercular shortening was observed (average prevalence in both ploidies 85.8%) and short lower jaws were common (highest prevalence observed 11.3%). In the second experiment, ploidy, but not temperature, affected the prevalence of short lower jaw (diploids > triploids) and lower jaw deformity (triploids > diploids, highest prevalence observed 11.1% triploids and 2.7% diploids) with a trend indicating a possible developmental link between the two jaw anomalies in triploids. A radiological assessment (n = 240 individuals) showed that at both temperatures triploids had a significantly (P < 0.05) lower number of vertebrae and higher prevalence of deformed individuals. These findings (second experiment) suggest ploidy was more influential than temperature in this study. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

How are warm and cool years in the California Current related to ENSO?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiedler, Paul C.; Mantua, Nathan J.

2017-07-01

The tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual variability that impacts climate throughout the Pacific. The California Current System (CCS) in the northeast Pacific warms and cools from year to year, with or without a corresponding tropical El Niño or La Niña event. We update the record of warm and cool events in the CCS for 1950-2016 and use composite sea level pressure (SLP) and surface wind anomalies to explore the atmospheric forcing mechanisms associated with tropical and CCS warm and cold events. CCS warm events are associated with negative SLP anomalies in the NE Pacific—a strong and southeastward displacement of the wintertime Aleutian Low, a weak North Pacific High, and a regional pattern of cyclonic wind anomalies that are poleward over the CCS. We use a first-order autoregressive model to show that regional North Pacific forcing is predominant in SST variations throughout most of the CCS, while remote tropical forcing is more important in the far southern portion of the CCS. In our analysis, cool events in the CCS tend to be more closely associated with tropical La Niña than are warm events in the CCS with tropical El Niño; the forcing of co-occurring cool events is analogous, but nearly opposite, to that of warm events.

On the origin of multidecadal to centennial Greenland temperature anomalies over the past 800 yr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobashi, T.; Shindell, D. T.; Kodera, K.; Box, J. E.; Nakaegawa, T.; Kawamura, K.

2013-03-01

The surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is among the most important climate variables for assessing how climate change may impact human societies due to its association with sea level rise. However, the causes of multidecadal-to-centennial temperature changes in Greenland temperatures are not well understood, largely owing to short observational records. To examine these, we calculated the Greenland temperature anomalies (GTA[G-NH]) over the past 800 yr by subtracting the standardized northern hemispheric (NH) temperature from the standardized Greenland temperature. This decomposes the Greenland temperature variation into background climate (NH); polar amplification; and regional variability (GTA[G-NH]). The central Greenland polar amplification factor as expressed by the variance ratio Greenland/NH is 2.6 over the past 161 yr, and 3.3-4.2 over the past 800 yr. The GTA[G-NH] explains 31-35% of the variation of Greenland temperature in the multidecadal-to-centennial time scale over the past 800 yr. We found that the GTA[G-NH] has been influenced by solar-induced changes in atmospheric circulation patterns such as those produced by the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO). Climate modeling and proxy temperature records indicate that the anomaly is also likely linked to solar-paced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and associated changes in northward oceanic heat transport.

On the Origin of Multidecadal to Centennial Greenland Temperature Anomalies Over the Past 800 yr

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kobashi, T.; Shindell, D. T.; Kodera, K.; Box, J. E.; Nakaegawa, T.; Kawamura, K.

2013-01-01

The surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is among the most important climate variables for assessing how climate change may impact human societies due to its association with sea level rise. However, the causes of multidecadal-to-centennial temperature changes in Greenland temperatures are not well understood, largely owing to short observational records. To examine these, we calculated the Greenland temperature anomalies (GTA[G-NH]) over the past 800 yr by subtracting the standardized northern hemispheric (NH) temperature from the standardized Greenland temperature. This decomposes the Greenland temperature variation into background climate (NH); polar amplification; and regional variability (GTA[G-NH]). The central Greenland polar amplification factor as expressed by the variance ratio Greenland/NH is 2.6 over the past 161 yr, and 3.3-4.2 over the past 800 yr. The GTA[G-NH] explains 31-35%of the variation of Greenland temperature in the multidecadal-to-centennial time scale over the past 800 yr. We found that the GTA[G-NH] has been influenced by solar-induced changes in atmospheric circulation patterns such as those produced by the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO). Climate modeling and proxy temperature records indicate that the anomaly is also likely linked to solar-paced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and associated changes in northward oceanic heat transport.

Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfleiderer, Peter; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Mengel, Matthias; Rogelj, Joeri

2018-06-01

International climate policy uses global mean temperature rise limits as proxies for societally acceptable levels of climate change. These limits are informed by risk assessments which draw upon projections of climate impacts under various levels of warming. Here we illustrate that indicators used to define limits of warming and those used to track the evolution of the Earth System under climate change are not directly comparable. Depending on the methodological approach, differences can be time-variant and up to 0.2 °C for a warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This might lead to carbon budget overestimates of about 10 years of continued year-2015 emissions, and about a 10% increase in estimated 2100 sea-level rise. Awareness of this definitional mismatch is needed for a more effective communication between scientists and decision makers, as well as between the impact and physical climate science communities.

Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (≥4°C) global warming.

PubMed

Sanderson, M G; Hemming, D L; Betts, R A

2011-01-13

Climate models vary widely in their projections of both global mean temperature rise and regional climate changes, but are there any systematic differences in regional changes associated with different levels of global climate sensitivity? This paper examines model projections of climate change over the twenty-first century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report which used the A2 scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, assessing whether different regional responses can be seen in models categorized as 'high-end' (those projecting 4°C or more by the end of the twenty-first century relative to the preindustrial). It also identifies regions where the largest climate changes are projected under high-end warming. The mean spatial patterns of change, normalized against the global rate of warming, are generally similar in high-end and 'non-high-end' simulations. The exception is the higher latitudes, where land areas warm relatively faster in boreal summer in high-end models, but sea ice areas show varying differences in boreal winter. Many continental interiors warm approximately twice as fast as the global average, with this being particularly accentuated in boreal summer, and the winter-time Arctic Ocean temperatures rise more than three times faster than the global average. Large temperature increases and precipitation decreases are projected in some of the regions that currently experience water resource pressures, including Mediterranean fringe regions, indicating enhanced pressure on water resources in these areas.

Southern Ocean air-sea heat flux, SST spatial anomalies, and implications for multi-decadal upper ocean heat content trends.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamsitt, V. M.; Talley, L. D.; Mazloff, M. R.

2014-12-01

The Southern Ocean displays a zonal dipole (wavenumber one) pattern in sea surface temperature (SST), with a cool zonal anomaly in the Atlantic and Indian sectors and a warm zonal anomaly in the Pacific sector, associated with the large northward excursion of the Malvinas and southeastward flow of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). To the north of the cool Indian sector is the warm, narrow Agulhas Return Current (ARC). Air-sea heat flux is largely the inverse of this SST pattern, with ocean heat gain in the Atlantic/Indian, cooling in the southeastward-flowing ARC, and cooling in the Pacific, based on adjusted fluxes from the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE), a ⅙° eddy permitting model constrained to all available in situ data. This heat flux pattern is dominated by turbulent heat loss from the ocean (latent and sensible), proportional to perturbations in the difference between SST and surface air temperature, which are maintained by ocean advection. Locally in the Indian sector, intense heat loss along the ARC is contrasted by ocean heat gain of 0.11 PW south of the ARC. The IPCC AR5 50 year depth-averaged 0-700 m temperature trend shows surprising similarities in its spatial pattern, with upper ocean warming in the ARC contrasted by cooling to the south. Using diagnosed heat budget terms from the most recent (June 2014) 6-year run of the SOSE we find that surface cooling in the ARC is balanced by heating from south-eastward advection by the current whereas heat gain in the ACC is balanced by cooling due to northward Ekman transport driven by strong westerly winds. These results suggest that spatial patterns in multi-decadal upper ocean temperature trends depend on regional variations in upper ocean dynamics.

Brain Temperature in Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats during Physical Exercise in Temperate and Warm Environments.

PubMed

Drummond, Lucas Rios; Kunstetter, Ana Cançado; Vaz, Filipe Ferreira; Campos, Helton Oliveira; Andrade, André Gustavo Pereira de; Coimbra, Cândido Celso; Natali, Antônio José; Wanner, Samuel Penna; Prímola-Gomes, Thales Nicolau

2016-01-01

This study aimed to evaluate brain temperature (Tbrain) changes in spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHRs) subjected to two different physical exercise protocols in temperate or warm environments. We also investigated whether hypertension affects the kinetics of exercise-induced increases in Tbrain relative to the kinetics of abdominal temperature (Tabd) increases. Male 16-week-old normotensive Wistar rats (NWRs) and SHRs were implanted with an abdominal temperature sensor and a guide cannula in the frontal cortex to enable the insertion of a thermistor to measure Tbrain. Next, the animals were subjected to incremental-speed (initial speed of 10 m/min; speed was increased by 1 m/min every 3 min) or constant-speed (60% of the maximum speed) treadmill running until they were fatigued in a temperate (25°C) or warm (32°C) environment. Tbrain, Tabd and tail skin temperature were measured every min throughout the exercise trials. During incremental and constant exercise at 25°C and 32°C, the SHR group exhibited greater increases in Tbrain and Tabd relative to the NWR group. Irrespective of the environment, the heat loss threshold was attained at higher temperatures (either Tbrain or Tabd) in the SHRs. Moreover, the brain-abdominal temperature differential was lower at 32°C in the SHRs than in the NWRs during treadmill running. Overall, we conclude that SHRs exhibit enhanced brain hyperthermia during exercise and that hypertension influences the kinetics of the Tbrain relative to the Tabd increases, particularly during exercise in a warm environment.

Brain Temperature in Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats during Physical Exercise in Temperate and Warm Environments

PubMed Central

Drummond, Lucas Rios; Kunstetter, Ana Cançado; Vaz, Filipe Ferreira; Campos, Helton Oliveira; de Andrade, André Gustavo Pereira; Coimbra, Cândido Celso; Natali, Antônio José

2016-01-01

This study aimed to evaluate brain temperature (Tbrain) changes in spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHRs) subjected to two different physical exercise protocols in temperate or warm environments. We also investigated whether hypertension affects the kinetics of exercise-induced increases in Tbrain relative to the kinetics of abdominal temperature (Tabd) increases. Male 16-week-old normotensive Wistar rats (NWRs) and SHRs were implanted with an abdominal temperature sensor and a guide cannula in the frontal cortex to enable the insertion of a thermistor to measure Tbrain. Next, the animals were subjected to incremental-speed (initial speed of 10 m/min; speed was increased by 1 m/min every 3 min) or constant-speed (60% of the maximum speed) treadmill running until they were fatigued in a temperate (25°C) or warm (32°C) environment. Tbrain, Tabd and tail skin temperature were measured every min throughout the exercise trials. During incremental and constant exercise at 25°C and 32°C, the SHR group exhibited greater increases in Tbrain and Tabd relative to the NWR group. Irrespective of the environment, the heat loss threshold was attained at higher temperatures (either Tbrain or Tabd) in the SHRs. Moreover, the brain-abdominal temperature differential was lower at 32°C in the SHRs than in the NWRs during treadmill running. Overall, we conclude that SHRs exhibit enhanced brain hyperthermia during exercise and that hypertension influences the kinetics of the Tbrain relative to the Tabd increases, particularly during exercise in a warm environment. PMID:27214497

The General Circulation Model Response to a North Pacific SST Anomaly: Dependence on Time Scale and Pattern Polarity.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushnir, Yochanan; Lau, Ngar-Cheung

1992-04-01

A general circulation model was integrated with perpetual January conditions and prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific. A characteristic pattern with a warm region centered northeast of Hawaii and a cold region along the western seaboard of North America was alternately added to and subtracted from the climatological SST field. Long 1350-day runs, as well as short 180-day runs, each starting from different initial conditions, were performed. The results were compared to a control integration with climatological SSTs.The model's quasi-stationary response does not exhibit a simple linear relationship with the polarity of the prescribed SST anomaly. In the short runs with a negative SST anomaly over the central ocean, a large negative height anomaly, with an equivalent barotropic vertical structure, occurs over the Gulf of Alaska. For the same SST forcing, the long run yields a different response pattern in which an anomalous high prevails over northern Canada and the Alaskan Peninsula. A significant reduction in the northward heat flux associated with baroclinic eddies and a concomitant reduction in convective heating occur along the model's Pacific storm track. In the runs with a positive SST anomaly over the central ocean, the average height response during the first 90-day period of the short runs is too weak to be significant. In the subsequent 90-day period and in the long run an equivalent barotropic low occurs downstream from the warm SST anomaly. All positive anomaly runs exhibit little change in baroclinic eddy activity or in the patterns of latent heat release. Horizontal momentum transports by baroclinic eddies appear to help sustain the quasi-stationary response in the height field regardless of the polarity of the SST anomaly. These results emphasize the important role played by baroclinic eddies in determining the quasi-stationary response to midlatitude SST anomalies. Differences between the response patterns of the

Sea surface temperature anomalies, planetary waves, and air-sea feedback in the middle latitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frankignoul, C.

1985-01-01

Current analytical models for large-scale air-sea interactions in the middle latitudes are reviewed in terms of known sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The scales and strength of different atmospheric forcing mechanisms are discussed, along with the damping and feedback processes controlling the evolution of the SST. Difficulties with effective SST modeling are described in terms of the techniques and results of case studies, numerical simulations of mixed-layer variability and statistical modeling. The relationship between SST and diabatic heating anomalies is considered and a linear model is developed for the response of the stationary atmosphere to the air-sea feedback. The results obtained with linear wave models are compared with the linear model results. Finally, sample data are presented from experiments with general circulation models into which specific SST anomaly data for the middle latitudes were introduced.

Sea surface temperatures of the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period: A comparison of PRISM3 and HadCM3

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, H.J.; Haywood, A.M.; Valdes, P.J.; Robinson, M.M.; Lunt, D.J.; Hill, D.J.; Stoll, D.K.; Foley, K.M.

2011-01-01

It is essential to document how well the current generation of climate models performs in simulating past climates to have confidence in their ability to project future conditions. We present the first global, in-depth comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from a coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model experiment and a SST reconstruction based on proxy data. This enables the identification of areas in which both the climate model and the proxy dataset require improvement.In general, the fit between model-produced SST anomalies and those formed from the available data is very good. We focus our discussion on three regions where the data–model anomaly exceeds 2 °C. 1) In the high latitude North Pacific, a systematic model error may result in anomalies that are too cold. Also, the deeper Pliocene thermocline may cause disagreement along the California margin; either the upwelling in the model is too strong or the modeled thermocline is not deep enough. 2) In the North Atlantic, the model predicts cooling in the center of a data-based warming trend that steadily increases with latitude from + 1.5 °C to >+ 6 °C. The discrepancy may arise because the modeled North Atlantic Current is too zonal compared to reality, which is reinforced by the lowering of the altitude of the Pliocene Western Cordillera Mountains. In addition, the model's use of modern bathymetry in the higher latitudes may have led the model to underestimate the northward penetration of warmer surface water into the Arctic. 3) Finally, though the data and model show good general agreement across most of the Southern Ocean, a few locations show offsets due to the modern land–sea mask used in the model.Additional considerations could account for many of the modest data–model anomalies, such as differences between calibration climatologies, the oversimplification of the seasonal cycle, and differences between SST proxies (i.e. seasonality and water depth). New SST

Climate warming may increase aphids' dropping probabilities in response to high temperatures.

PubMed

Ma, Gang; Ma, Chun-Sen

2012-11-01

Dropping off is considered an anti-predator behavior for aphids since previous studies have shown that it reduces the risk of predation. However, little attention is paid to dropping behavior triggered by other external stresses such as daytime high temperatures which are predicted to become more frequent in the context of climate warming. Here we defined a new parameter, drop-off temperature (DOT), to describe the critical temperature at which an aphid drops off its host plant when the ambient temperature increases gradually and slowly. Detailed studies were conducted to reveal effects of short-term acclimation (temperature, exposure time at high-temperature and starvation) on DOT of an aphid species, Sitobion avenae. Our objectives were to test if the aphids dropped off host plant to avoid high temperatures and how short-term acclimation affected the aphids' dropping behavior in response to heat stress. We suggest that dropping is a behavioral thermoregulation to avoid heat stress, since aphids started to move before they dropped off and the dropped aphids were still able to control their muscles prior to knockdown. The adults starved for 12 h had higher DOT values than those that were unstarved or starved for 6 h, and there was a trade-off between behavioral thermoregulation and energy acquisition. Higher temperatures and longer exposure times at high temperatures significantly lowered the aphids' DOT, suggested that the aphids avoid heat stress by dropping when exposed to high temperatures. Climate warming may therefore increase the aphids' dropping probabilities and consequently affect the aphids' individual development and population growth. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

PubMed

Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen

2018-04-30

The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

Perioperative warming with a thermal gown prevents maternal temperature loss during elective cesarean section. A randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

de Bernardis, Ricardo Caio Gracco; Siaulys, Monica Maria; Vieira, Joaquim Edson; Mathias, Lígia Andrade Silva Telles

2016-01-01

Decrease in body temperature is common during general and regional anesthesia. Forced-air warming intraoperative during cesarean section under spinal anesthesia seems not able to prevent it. The hypothesis considers that active warming before the intraoperative period avoids temperature loss during cesarean. Forty healthy pregnant patients undergoing elective cesarean section with spinal anesthesia received active warming from a thermal gown in the preoperative care unit 30min before spinal anesthesia and during surgery (Go, n=20), or no active warming at any time (Ct, n=20). After induction of spinal anesthesia, the thermal gown was replaced over the chest and upper limbs and maintained throughout study. Room temperature, hemoglobin saturation, heart rate, arterial pressure, and tympanic body temperature were registered 30min before (baseline) spinal anesthesia, right after it (time zero) and every 15min thereafter. There was no difference for temperature at baseline, but they were significant throughout the study (p<0.0001; repeated measure ANCOVA). Tympanic temperature baseline was 36.6±0.3°C, measured 36.5±0.3°C at time zero and reached 36.1±0.2°C for gown group, while control group had baseline temperature of 36.4±0.4°C, measured 36.3±0.3°C at time zero and reached 35.4±0.4°C (F=32.53; 95% CI 0.45-0.86; p<0.001). Hemodynamics did not differ throughout the study for both groups of patients. Active warming 30min before spinal anesthesia and during surgery prevented a fall in body temperature in full-term pregnant women during elective cesarean delivery. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Brasileira de Anestesiologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

[Perioperative warming with a thermal gown prevents maternal temperature loss during elective cesarean section. A randomized clinical trial].

PubMed

Bernardis, Ricardo Caio Gracco de; Siaulys, Monica Maria; Vieira, Joaquim Edson; Mathias, Lígia Andrade Silva Telles

2016-01-01

Decrease in body temperature is common during general and regional anesthesia. Forced-air warming intraoperative during cesarean section under spinal anesthesia seems not able to prevent it. The hypothesis considers that active warming before the intraoperative period avoids temperature loss during cesarean. Forty healthy pregnant patients undergoing elective cesarean section with spinal anesthesia received active warming from a thermal gown in the preoperative care unit 30min before spinal anesthesia and during surgery (Go, n=20), or no active warming at any time (Ct, n=20). After induction of spinal anesthesia, the thermal gown was replaced over the chest and upper limbs and maintained throughout study. Room temperature, hemoglobin saturation, heart rate, arterial pressure, and tympanic body temperature were registered 30min before (baseline) spinal anesthesia, right after it (time zero) and every 15min thereafter. There was no difference for temperature at baseline, but they were significant throughout the study (p<0.0001; repeated measure ANCOVA). Tympanic temperature baseline was 36.6±0.3°C, measured 36.5±0.3°C at time zero and reached 36.1±0.2°C for gown group, while control group had baseline temperature of 36.4±0.4°C, measured 36.3±0.3°C at time zero and reached 35.4±0.4°C (F=32.53; 95% CI 0.45-0.86; p<0.001). Hemodynamics did not differ throughout the study for both groups of patients. Active warming 30min before spinal anesthesia and during surgery prevented a fall in body temperature in full-term pregnant women during elective cesarean delivery. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Brasileira de Anestesiologia. Publicado por Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Direct benefits and indirect costs of warm temperatures for high-elevation populations of a solitary bee.

PubMed

Forrest, Jessica R K; Chisholm, Sarah P M

2017-02-01

Warm temperatures are required for insect flight. Consequently, warming could benefit many high-latitude and high-altitude insects by increasing opportunities for foraging or oviposition. However, warming can also alter species interactions, including interactions with natural enemies, making the net effect of rising temperatures on population growth rate difficult to predict. We investigated the temperature-dependence of nesting activity and lifetime reproductive output over 3 yr in subalpine populations of a pollen-specialist bee, Osmia iridis. Rates of nest provisioning increased with ambient temperatures and with availability of floral resources, as expected. However, warmer conditions did not increase lifetime reproductive output. Lifetime offspring production was best explained by rates of brood parasitism (by the wasp Sapyga), which increased with temperature. Direct observations of bee and parasite activity suggest that although activity of both species is favored by warmer temperatures, bees can be active at lower ambient temperatures, while wasps are active only at higher temperatures. Thus, direct benefits to the bees of warmer temperatures were nullified by indirect costs associated with increased parasite activity. To date, most studies of climate-change effects on pollinators have focused on changing interactions between pollinators and their floral host-plants (i.e., bottom-up processes). Our results suggest that natural enemies (i.e., top-down forces) can play a key role in pollinator population regulation and should not be overlooked in forecasts of pollinator responses to climate change. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Detection of Low Temperature Volcanogenic Thermal Anomalies with ASTER

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pieri, D. C.; Baxter, S.

2009-12-01

Predicting volcanic eruptions is a thorny problem, as volcanoes typically exhibit idiosyncratic waxing and/or waning pre-eruption emission, geodetic, and seismic behavior. It is no surprise that increasing our accuracy and precision in eruption prediction depends on assessing the time-progressions of all relevant precursor geophysical, geochemical, and geological phenomena, and on more frequently observing volcanoes when they become restless. The ASTER instrument on the NASA Terra Earth Observing System satellite in low earth orbit provides important capabilities in the area of detection of volcanogenic anomalies such as thermal precursors and increased passive gas emissions. Its unique high spatial resolution multi-spectral thermal IR imaging data (90m/pixel; 5 bands in the 8-12um region), bore-sighted with visible and near-IR imaging data, and combined with off-nadir pointing and stereo-photogrammetric capabilities make ASTER a potentially important volcanic precursor detection tool. We are utilizing the JPL ASTER Volcano Archive (http://ava.jpl.nasa.gov) to systematically examine 80,000+ ASTER volcano images to analyze (a) thermal emission baseline behavior for over 1500 volcanoes worldwide, (b) the form and magnitude of time-dependent thermal emission variability for these volcanoes, and (c) the spatio-temporal limits of detection of pre-eruption temporal changes in thermal emission in the context of eruption precursor behavior. We are creating and analyzing a catalog of the magnitude, frequency, and distribution of volcano thermal signatures worldwide as observed from ASTER since 2000 at 90m/pixel. Of particular interest as eruption precursors are small low contrast thermal anomalies of low apparent absolute temperature (e.g., melt-water lakes, fumaroles, geysers, grossly sub-pixel hotspots), for which the signal-to-noise ratio may be marginal (e.g., scene confusion due to clouds, water and water vapor, fumarolic emissions, variegated ground emissivity, and

The warming trend of ground surface temperature in the Choshui Alluvial Fan, western central Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, W.; Chang, M.; Chen, J.; Lu, W.; Huang, C. C.; Wang, Y.

2013-12-01

Heat storage in subsurface of the continents forms a fundamental component of the global energy budget and plays an important role in the climate system. Several researches revealed that subsurface temperatures were being increased to 1.8-2.8°C higher in mean ground surface temperature (GST) for some Asian cities where are experiencing a rapid growth of population. Taiwan is a subtropic-tropic island with densely populated in the coastal plains surrounding its mountains. We investigate the subsurface temperature distribution and the borehole temperature-depth profiles by using groundwater monitoring wells in years 2000 and 2010. Our data show that the western central Taiwan plain also has been experiencing a warming trend but with a higher temperatures approximately 3-4 °C of GST during the last 250 yrs. We suggest that the warming were mostly due to the land change to urbanization and agriculture. The current GSTs from our wells are approximately 25.51-26.79 °C which are higher than the current surface air temperature (SAT) of 23.65 °C. Data from Taiwan's weather stations also show 1-1.5 °C higher for the GST than the SAT at neighboring stations. The earth surface heat balance data indicate that GST higher than SAT is reasonable. More researches are needed to evaluate the interaction of GST and SAT, and how a warming GST's impact to the SAT and the climate system of the Earth.

Effects of seasonal change and experimental warming on the temperature dependence of photosynthesis in the canopy leaves of Quercus serrata.

PubMed

Yamaguchi, Daisuke P; Nakaji, Tatsuro; Hiura, Tsutom; Hikosaka, Kouki

2016-10-01

The effects of warming on the temperature response of leaf photosynthesis have become an area of major concern in recent decades. Although growth temperature (GT) and day length (DL) affect leaf gas exchange characteristics, the way in which these factors influence the temperature dependence of photosynthesis remains uncertain. We established open-top canopy chambers at the canopy top of a deciduous forest, in which average daytime leaf temperature was increased by 1.0 °C. We conducted gas exchange measurements for the canopy leaves of deciduous trees exposed to artificial warming during different seasons. The carbon dioxide assimilation rate at 20 °C (A 20 ) was not affected by warming, whereas that at 25 °C (A 25 ) tended to be higher in leaves exposed to warming. Warming increased the optimal temperature of photosynthesis by increasing the activation energy for the maximum rate of carboxylation. Regression analysis indicated that both GT and DL strongly influenced gas exchange characteristics. Sensitivity analysis revealed that DL affected A without obvious effects on the temperature dependence of A, whereas GT almost maintained constant A 20 and strongly influenced the temperature dependence. These results indicate that GT and DL have different influences on photosynthesis; GT and DL affect the 'slope' and intercept' of the temperature dependence of photosynthesis, respectively. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Archuleta County

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Dolores County

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Statistical downscaling forecast of Chinese winter temperature based on the autumn SST anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, J.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the impacts of the autumn sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) on interannual variations of Chinese winter temperature, and discusses the potential predictability of December-January-February (DJF) 2-m air temperature anomalies (TSA) over China based on the intimate linkage between the DJF TSA and autumn SSTA. According to the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, three leading EOF modes jointly account for 80% of the total TSA variances and are characterized by a homogeneous spatial pattern, a north-south seesaw and a cross structure. The first three EOFs exhibit a stable feature revealed by cross-validation, suggesting the potential predictability of the DJF TSA. The EOF1 mode is influenced by changes in the intensities of the Siberian High (SH), East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and East Asian Trough related to an Eurasian pattern teleconnection, which can be tracked back to September-October-November (SON) SSTA associated with two SSTA tripole patterns in the North Pacific and North Atlantic, a dipole mode in the Indian Ocean and an ENSO-like mode in the equatorial and subtropical Pacific. However, the Arctic Oscillation plays an important role in the second mode. The teleconnection connecting the atmospheric circulation anomalies in two hemispheres indicates that the configuration of global SON SSTA induces the two annular modes and causes a TSA oscillation between the northern and southern parts of China. The third mode is related to the westward shift of the SH and western pathway EAWM, which are attributed to two dipole modes in the North Pacific and South Pacific, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Indian Ocean Basin Mode. Therefore a physically-based statistical model is established based on autumn SSTA indices. Cross-validation suggests that this statistical downscaling forecast model shows a good performance in predicting the DJF TSA.

S-NPP VIIRS thermal emissive band gain correction during the blackbody warm-up-cool-down cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Taeyoung J.; Cao, Changyong; Weng, Fuzhong

2016-09-01

The Suomi National Polar orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) has onboard calibrators called blackbody (BB) and Space View (SV) for Thermal Emissive Band (TEB) radiometric calibration. In normal operation, the BB temperature is set to 292.5 K providing one radiance level. From the NOAA's Integrated Calibration and Validation System (ICVS) monitoring system, the TEB calibration factors (F-factors) have been trended and show very stable responses, however the BB Warm-Up-Cool-Down (WUCD) cycles provide detectors' gain and temperature dependent sensitivity measurements. Since the launch of S-NPP, the NOAA Sea Surface Temperature (SST) group noticed unexpected global SST anomalies during the WUCD cycles. In this study, the TEB Ffactors are calculated during the WUCD cycle on June 17th 2015. The TEB F-factors are analyzed by identifying the VIIRS On-Board Calibrator Intermediate Product (OBCIP) files to be Warm-Up or Cool-Down granules. To correct the SST anomaly, an F-factor correction parameter is calculated by the modified C1 (or b1) values which are derived from the linear portion of C1 coefficient during the WUCD. The F-factor correction factors are applied back to the original VIIRS SST bands showing significantly reducing the F-factor changes. Obvious improvements are observed in M12, M14 and M16, but corrections effects are hardly seen in M16. Further investigation is needed to find out the source of the F-factor oscillations during the WUCD.

Surface Heat Budgets and Sea Surface Temperature in the Pacific Warm Pool During TOGA COARE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shu-Hsien; Zhao, Wenzhong; Chou, Ming-Dah

1998-01-01

The daily mean heat and momentum fluxes at the surface derived from the SSM/I and Japan's GMS radiance measurements are used to study the temporal and spatial variability of the surface energy budgets and their relationship to the sea surface temperature during the COARE intensive observing period (IOP). For the three time legs observed during the IOP, the retrieved surface fluxes compare reasonably well with those from the IMET buoy, RV Moana Wave, and RV Wecoma. The characteristics of surface heat and momentum fluxes are very different between the southern and northern warm pool. In the southern warm pool, the net surface heat flux is dominated by solar radiation which is, in turn, modulated by the two Madden-Julian oscillations. The surface winds are generally weak, leading to a shallow ocean mixed layer. The solar radiation penetrating through the bottom of the mixed layer is significant, and the change in the sea surface temperature during the IOP does not follow the net surface heat flux. In the northern warm pool, the northeasterly trade wind is strong and undergoes strong seasonal variation. The variation of the net surface heat flux is dominated by evaporation. The two westerly wind bursts associated with the Madden-Julian oscillations seem to have little effect on the net surface heat flux. The ocean mixed layer is deep, and the solar radiation penetrating through the bottom of the mixed layer is small. As opposed to the southern warm pool, the trend of the sea surface temperature in the northern warm pool during the IOP is in agreement with the variation of the net heat flux at the surface.

Evidence for wavelike anomalies with short meridional and large zonal scales in the lower stratospheric temperature field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanford, J. L.; Short, D. A.

1981-01-01

Global microwave brightness temperature measurements are analyzed to investigate the range of meridional wavelengths 2000-3000 km where spectral studies reveal larger than expected variance. The data, from the TIROS-N Microwave Sounding Unit, are sensitive to lower stratospheric temperatures (30-150 mb). The results reveal striking temperature anomalies with short meridional wavelengths (2000-3000 km) and long zonal wavelengths (zonal wavenumbers 1-4). The anomalies, with amplitudes approximately 1-2 K, extend from the equatorial region to at least as high as 70 deg N and 70 deg S during January 1979. The features exhibit slow eastward movement or else are nearly stationary for several days. In the Northern Hemisphere, comparison with NMC data reveals that the strongest features tend to be associated with major jet streams.

Interdecadal Change in the Tropical Pacific Precipitation Anomaly Pattern around the Late 1990s during Boreal Spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Zhiping; Guo, Yuanyuan; Wu, Renguang

2017-04-01

The leading mode of boreal spring precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific experienced a pronounced interdecadal change around the late 1990s. The pattern before 1998 features positive precipitation anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific (EP) with positive principle component years. The counterpart after 1998 exhibits a westward shift of the positive center to the equatorial central Pacific (CP). Observational evidence shows that this interdecadal change in the leading mode of precipitation variability is closely associated with a distinctive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern. The westward shift of the anomalous precipitation center after 1998 is in tandem with a similar shift of maximum warming from the EP to CP. Diagnostic analyses based on a linear equation of the mixed layer temperature anomaly exhibit that an interdecadal enhancement of zonal advection (ZA) feedback process plays a vital role in the shift in the leading mode of both the tropical Pacific SST and the precipitation anomaly during spring. Moreover, the variability of the anomalous zonal current at the upper ocean dominates the ZA feedback change, while the mean zonal SST gradient associated with a La Niña-like pattern of the mean state only accounts for a relatively trivial proportion of the ZA feedback change. It was found that both the relatively rapid decaying of the SST anomalies in the EP and the La Niña-like mean state make it conceivable that the shift of the leading mode of the tropical precipitation anomaly only occurs in spring. In addition, the largest variance of the anomalous zonal current in spring might contribute to the unique interdecadal change in the tropical spring precipitation anomaly pattern.

Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records.

PubMed

Hausfather, Zeke; Cowtan, Kevin; Clarke, David C; Jacobs, Peter; Richardson, Mark; Rohde, Robert

2017-01-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) records are subject to potential biases due to changing instrumentation and measurement practices. Significant differences exist between commonly used composite SST reconstructions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), the Hadley Centre SST data set (HadSST3), and the Japanese Meteorological Agency's Centennial Observation-Based Estimates of SSTs (COBE-SST) from 2003 to the present. The update from ERSST version 3b to version 4 resulted in an increase in the operational SST trend estimate during the last 19 years from 0.07° to 0.12°C per decade, indicating a higher rate of warming in recent years. We show that ERSST version 4 trends generally agree with largely independent, near-global, and instrumentally homogeneous SST measurements from floating buoys, Argo floats, and radiometer-based satellite measurements that have been developed and deployed during the past two decades. We find a large cooling bias in ERSST version 3b and smaller but significant cooling biases in HadSST3 and COBE-SST from 2003 to the present, with respect to most series examined. These results suggest that reported rates of SST warming in recent years have been underestimated in these three data sets.

A systematic review of randomised controlled trials of the effects of warmed irrigation fluid on core body temperature during endoscopic surgeries.

PubMed

Jin, Yinghui; Tian, Jinhui; Sun, Mei; Yang, Kehu

2011-02-01

The purpose of this systematic review was to establish whether warmed irrigation fluid temperature could decrease the drop of body temperature and incidence of shivering and hypothermia. Irrigation fluid, which is used in large quantities during endoscopic surgeries at room temperature, is considered to be associated with hypothermia and shivering. It remains controversial whether using warmed irrigation fluid to replace room-temperature irrigation fluid will decrease the drop of core body temperature and the occurrence of hypothermia. A comprehensive search (computerised database searches, footnote chasing, citation chasing) was undertaken to identify all the randomised controlled trials that explored temperature of irrigation fluid in endoscopic surgery. An approach involving meta-analysis was used. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, SCI, China academic journals full-text databases, Chinese Biomedical Literature Database, Chinese scientific journals databases and Chinese Medical Association Journals for trials that meet the inclusion criteria. Study quality was assessed using standards recommended by Cochrane Library Handbook 5.0.1. Disagreement was resolved by consensus. Thirteen randomised controlled trials including 686 patients were identified. The results showed that room-temperature irrigation fluid caused a greater drop of core body temperature in patients, compared to warmed irrigation fluid (p < 0.00001; I(2) = 85%). The occurrence of shivering [odds ratio (OR) 5.13, 95% CI: 2.95-10.19, p < 0.00001; I(2) = 0%] and hypothermia (OR 22.01, 95% CI: 2.03-197.08, p = 0.01; I(2) = 64%) in the groups having warmed irrigation fluid were lower than the group of studies having room-temperature fluid. In endoscopic surgeries, irrigation fluid is recommended to be warmed to decrease the drop of core body temperature and the risk of perioperative shivering and hypothermia. Warming irrigating fluid should be considered standard practice in all endoscopic

Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface temperatures reveal more than warming.

PubMed

Lima, Fernando P; Wethey, David S

2012-02-28

Understanding and forecasting current and future consequences of coastal warming require a fine-scale assessment of the near-shore temperature changes. Here we show that despite the fact that 71% of the world's coastlines are significantly warming, rates of change have been highly heterogeneous both spatially and seasonally. We demonstrate that 46% of the coastlines have experienced a significant decrease in the frequency of extremely cold events, while extremely hot days are becoming more common in 38% of the area. Also, we show that the onset of the warm season is significantly advancing earlier in the year in 36% of the temperate coastal regions. More importantly, it is now possible to analyse local patterns within the global context, which is useful for a broad array of scientific fields, policy makers and general public.

Temperature profiles of patient-applied eyelid warming therapies.

PubMed

Wang, Michael T M; Gokul, Akilesh; Craig, Jennifer P

2015-12-01

To compare temperature profile characteristics (on and off eye) of two patient-applied heat therapies for meibomian gland dysfunction (MGD): an eye mask containing disposable warming units (EyeGiene(®)) and a microwave-heated flaxseed eye bag(®) (MGDRx EyeBag(®)). In vitro evaluation: surface temperature profiles of activated eye masks and heated eye bags(®) (both n=10), were tracked every 10s until return to ambient temperature. Heat-transfer assessment: outer and inner eyelid temperature profiles throughout the eye mask and eye bag(®) treatment application period (10min) were investigated in triplicate. The devices were applied for 12 different time intervals in a randomised order, with a cool-down period in between to ensure ocular temperatures returned to baseline. Temperature measurements were taken before and immediately after each application. In vitro evaluation: on profile, the eye bag(®) surface temperature peaked earlier (0±0 s vs. 100±20 s, p<0.001), cooled more slowly and displayed less variability than the eye mask (all p<0.05). Heat-transfer assessment: the eye bag(®) effected higher peak inner eyelid temperatures (38.1±0.4°C vs. 37.4±0.2°C, p=0.04), as well as larger inner eyelid temperature increases over the first 2 min, and between 9 and 10 min (all p<0.05). The eye bag(®) surface temperature profile displayed greater uniformity and slower cooling than the eye mask, and was demonstrated to be significantly more effective in raising ocular temperatures than the eye mask, both statistically and clinically. This has implications for MGD treatment, where the melting points of meibomian secretions are likely to be higher with increasing disease severity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding the tropical warm temperature bias simulated by climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio

2017-04-01

The state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models have difficulties in representing the observed spatial pattern of surface tempertaure. A majority of them suffers a warm bias in the tropical subsiding regions located over the eastern parts of oceans. These regions are usually covered by low-level clouds scattered from stratus along the coasts to more vertically developed shallow cumulus farther from them. Models usually fail to represent accurately this transition. Here we investigate physical drivers of this warm bias in CMIP5 models through a near-surface energy budget perspective. We show that overestimated solar insolation due to a lack of stratocumulus mostly explains the warm bias. This bias also arises partly from inter-model differences in surface fluxes that could be traced to differences in near-surface relative humidity and air-sea temperature gradient. We investigate the role of the atmosphere in driving surface biases by comparing historical and atmopsheric (AMIP) experiments. We show that some differences in boundary-layer characteristics, mostly those related to cloud fraction and relative humidity, are already present in AMIP experiments and may be the drivers of coupled biases. This gives insights in how models can be improved for better simulations of the tropical climate.

Rapid warming of the world's lakes: Interdecadal variability and long-term trends from 1910-2009 using in situ and remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenters, J. D.; Read, J. S.; Sharma, S.; O'Reilly, C.; Hampton, S. E.; Gray, D.; McIntyre, P. B.; Hook, S. J.; Schneider, P.; Soylu, M. E.; Barabás, N.; Lofton, D. D.

2014-12-01

Global and regional changes in climate have important implications for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Recent studies, for example, have revealed significant warming of inland water bodies throughout the world. To better understand the global patterns, physical mechanisms, and ecological implications of lake warming, an initiative known as the "Global Lake Temperature Collaboration" (GLTC) was started in 2010, with the objective of compiling and analyzing lake temperature data from numerous satellite and in situ records dating back at least 20-30 years. The GLTC project has now assembled data from over 300 lakes, with some in situ records extending back more than 100 years. Here, we present an analysis of the long-term warming trends, interdecadal variability, and a direct comparison between in situ and remotely sensed lake surface temperature for the 3-month summer period July-September (January-March for some lakes). The overall results show consistent, long-term trends of increasing summer-mean lake surface temperature across most but not all sites. Lakes with especially long records show accelerated warming in the most recent two to three decades, with almost half of the lakes warming at rates in excess of 0.5 °C per decade during the period 1985-2009, and a few even exceeding 1.0 °C per decade. Both satellite and in situ data show a similar distribution of warming trends, and a direct comparison at lake sites that have both types of data reveals a close correspondence in mean summer water temperature, interannual variability, and long-term trends. Finally, we examine standardized lake surface temperature anomalies across the full 100-year period (1910-2009), and in conjunction with similar timeseries of air temperature. The results reveal a close correspondence between summer air temperature and lake surface temperature on interannual and interdecadal timescales, but with many lakes warming more rapidly than the ambient air temperature over 25- to 100

Shifts in community size structure drive temperature invariance of secondary production in a stream-warming experiment.

PubMed

Nelson, Daniel; Benstead, Jonathan P; Huryn, Alexander D; Cross, Wyatt F; Hood, James M; Johnson, Philip W; Junker, James R; Gíslason, Gísli M; Ólafsson, Jón S

2017-07-01

A central question at the interface of food-web and climate change research is how secondary production, or the formation of heterotroph biomass over time, will respond to rising temperatures. The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) hypothesizes the temperature-invariance of secondary production, driven by matched and opposed forces that reduce biomass of heterotrophs while increasing their biomass turnover rate (production : biomass, or P:B) with warming. To test this prediction at the whole community level, we used a geothermal heat exchanger to experimentally warm a stream in southwest Iceland by 3.8°C for two years. We quantified invertebrate community biomass, production, and P : B in the experimental stream and a reference stream for one year prior to warming and two years during warming. As predicted, warming had a neutral effect on community production, but this result was not driven by opposing effects on community biomass and P:B. Instead, warming had a positive effect on both the biomass and production of larger-bodied, slower-growing taxa (e.g., larval black flies, dipteran predators, snails) and a negative effect on small-bodied taxa with relatively high growth rates (e.g., ostracods, larval chironomids). We attribute these divergent responses to differences in thermal preference between small- vs. large-bodied taxa. Although metabolic demand vs. resource supply must ultimately constrain community production, our results highlight the potential for idiosyncratic community responses to warming, driven by variation in thermal preference and body size within regional species pools. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Analyses Reveal Record-Shattering Global Warm Temperatures in 2015

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

2015 was the warmest year since modern record-keeping began in 1880, according to a new analysis by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The record-breaking year continues a long-term warming trend — 15 of the 16 warmest years on record have now occurred since 2001. Credits: Scientific Visualization Studio/Goddard Space Flight Center Details: Earth’s 2015 surface temperatures were the warmest since modern record keeping began in 1880, according to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Globally-averaged temperatures in 2015 shattered the previous mark set in 2014 by 0.23 degrees Fahrenheit (0.13 Celsius). Only once before, in 1998, has the new record been greater than the old record by this much. The 2015 temperatures continue a long-term warming trend, according to analyses by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York (GISTEMP). NOAA scientists agreed with the finding that 2015 was the warmest year on record based on separate, independent analyses of the data. Because weather station locations and measurements change over time, there is some uncertainty in the individual values in the GISTEMP index. Taking this into account, NASA analysis estimates 2015 was the warmest year with 94 percent certainty. Read more: www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-reco... NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Spring Soil Temperature Anomalies over Northwest U.S. and later Spring-Summer Droughts/Floods over Southern Plains and Adjacent Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Y.; Diallo, I.; Li, W.; Neelin, J. D.; Chu, P. C.; Vasic, R.; Zhu, Y.; LI, Q.; Robinson, D. A.

2017-12-01

Recurrent droughts/floods are high-impact meteorological events. Many studies have attributed these episodes to variability and anomaly of global sea surface temperatures (SST). However, studies have consistently shown that SST along is unable to fully explain the extreme climate events. Remote effects of large-scale spring land surface temperature (LST) and subsurface temperature (SUBT) variability in Northwest U.S. over the Rocky Mountain area on later spring-summer droughts/floods over the Southern Plains and adjacent areas, however, have been largely ignored. In this study, evidence from climate observations and model simulations addresses these effects. The Maximum Covariance Analysis of observational data identifies that a pronounce spring LST anomaly pattern over Northwest U.S. is closely associated with summer precipitation anomalies in Southern Plains: negative/positive spring LST anomaly is associated with the summer drought/flood over the Southern Plains. The global and regional weather forecast models were used to demonstrate a causal relationship. The modeling study suggests that the observed LST and SUBT anomalies produced about 29% and 31% of observed May 2015 heavy precipitation and June 2011 precipitation deficit, respectively. The analyses discovered that the LST/SUBT's downstream effects are associated with a large-scale atmospheric stationary wave extending eastward from the LST/SUBT anomaly region. For comparison, the SST effect was also tested and produced about 31% and 45% of the May 2015 heavy precipitation and June 2011 drought conditions, respectively. This study suggests that consideration of both SST and LST/SUBT anomalies are able to explain a substantial amount of variance in precipitation at sub-seasonal scale and inclusion of the LST/SUBT effect is essential to make reliable sub-seasonal and seasonal North American drought/flood predictions.

Mass coral mortality under local amplification of 2 °C ocean warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decarlo, Thomas M.; Cohen, Anne L.; Wong, George T. F.; Davis, Kristen A.; Lohmann, Pat; Soong, Keryea

2017-03-01

A 2 °C increase in global temperature above pre-industrial levels is considered a reasonable target for avoiding the most devastating impacts of anthropogenic climate change. In June 2015, sea surface temperature (SST) of the South China Sea (SCS) increased by 2 °C in response to the developing Pacific El Niño. On its own, this moderate, short-lived warming was unlikely to cause widespread damage to coral reefs in the region, and the coral reef “Bleaching Alert” alarm was not raised. However, on Dongsha Atoll, in the northern SCS, unusually weak winds created low-flow conditions that amplified the 2 °C basin-scale anomaly. Water temperatures on the reef flat, normally indistinguishable from open-ocean SST, exceeded 6 °C above normal summertime levels. Mass coral bleaching quickly ensued, killing 40% of the resident coral community in an event unprecedented in at least the past 40 years. Our findings highlight the risks of 2 °C ocean warming to coral reef ecosystems when global and local processes align to drive intense heating, with devastating consequences.

Interannual variability of temperature in the UTLS region over Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river basin based on COSMIC GNSS RO data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khandu; Awange, Joseph L.; Forootan, Ehsan

2016-04-01

Poor reliability of radiosonde records across South Asia imposes serious challenges in understanding the structure of upper-tropospheric and lower-stratospheric (UTLS) region. The Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) mission launched in April 2006 has overcome many observational limitations inherent in conventional atmospheric sounding instruments. This study examines the interannual variability of UTLS temperature over the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river basin in South Asia using monthly averaged COSMIC radio occultation (RO) data, together with two global reanalyses. Comparisons between August 2006 and December 2013 indicate that MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research Application) and ERA-Interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis) are warmer than COSMIC RO data by 2 °C between 200 and 50 hPa levels. These warm biases with respect to COSMIC RO data are found to be consistent over time. The UTLS temperature show considerable interannual variability from 2006 to 2013 in addition to warming (cooling) trends in the troposphere (stratosphere). The cold (warm) anomalies in the upper troposphere (tropopause region) are found to be associated with warm ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) phase, while quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is negatively (positively) correlated with temperature anomalies at 70 hPa (50 hPa) level. PCA (principal component analysis) decomposition of tropopause temperatures and heights over the basin indicate that ENSO accounts for 73 % of the interannual (non-seasonal) variability with a correlation of 0.77 with Niño3.4 index whereas the QBO explains about 10 % of the variability. The largest tropopause anomaly associated with ENSO occurs during the winter, when ENSO reaches its peak. The tropopause temperature (height) increased (decreased) by about 1.5 °C (300 m) during the last major El Niño event of 2009/2010. In general, we find decreasing

Discharge, water temperature, and water quality of Warm Mineral Springs, Sarasota County, Florida: A retrospective analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Metz, Patricia A.

2016-09-27

in inland areas, and upward flow toward the surface in coastal areas, such as at Warm Mineral Springs. Warm Mineral Springs is located in a discharge area. Changes in water use in the region have affected the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer. Historical increase in groundwater withdrawals resulted in a 10- to 20-foot regional decline in the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer by May 1975 relative to predevelopment levels and remained at approximately that level in May 2007 in the area of Warm Mineral Springs. Discharge measurements at Warm Mineral Springs (1942–2014) decreased from about 11–12 cubic feet per second in the 1940s to about 6–9 cubic feet per second in the 1970s and remained at about that level for the remainder of the period of record. Similarity of changes in regional water use and discharge at Warm Mineral Springs indicates that basin-scale changes to the groundwater system have affected discharge at Warm Mineral Springs. Water temperature had no significant trend in temperature over the period of record, 1943–2015, and outliers were identified in the data that might indicate inconsistencies in measurement methods or locations.Within the regional groundwater basin, Warm Mineral Springs is influenced by deep Upper Floridan aquifer flow paths that discharge toward the coast. Associated with these flow paths, the groundwater temperatures increase with depth and toward the coast. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that a source of warm groundwater to Warm Mineral Springs is likely the permeable zone of the Avon Park Formation within the Upper Floridan aquifer at a depth of about 1,400 to 1,600 feet, or deeper sources. The permeable zone contains saline groundwater with water temperatures of at least 95 degrees Fahrenheit.The water quality of Warm Mineral Springs, when compared with other springs in Florida had the highest temperature and the greatest mineralized content. Warm Mineral Springs water is

West African warming: Investigating Temperature Trends and their relation between Precipitation Trends over West African Sahel.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LY, M., Jr.

2014-12-01

It is now admitted that the West African region faces a lot of constraints due to the comprehensiveness of the high climate variability and potential climate change. This is mainly due to the lack of a large number of datasets and long-term records as summarized in the in the IPCC reports. This paper aims to provide improved knowledge and evidence on current and future climate conditions, for better manage climate variability over seasons and from year to year and strengthen the capacity to adapt to future climate change. In this regards, we analyse the evolution of some extreme temperature and precipitation indices over a large area of West Africa. Prior results show a general warming trend at individual stations throughout the region during the period from 1960 to 2010, namely negative trends in the number of cool nights, and positive trends in the number of warm days and length of warm spells. Trends in rainfall-related indices are not as uniform as the ones in temperatures, rather they display marked multi-decadal variability, as expected. To refine analyses of temperature variations and their relation to precipitation we investigated on cluster analysis aimed at distinguishing different sub-regions, such as continental and coastal, and relevant seasons, such as wet, dry/cold and dry warm. This will contribute to significantly lower uncertainties by developing better and more tailored temperature and precipitation trends to inform the user communities on climate related risks, as well as enhance their resilience to food insecurity and other climate related disasters.

Local insufflation of warm humidified CO₂increases open wound and core temperature during open colon surgery: a randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

Frey, Joana M; Janson, Martin; Svanfeldt, Monika; Svenarud, Peter K; van der Linden, Jan A

2012-11-01

The open surgical wound is exposed to cold and dry ambient air resulting in heat loss through radiation, evaporation, and convection. Also, general and neuraxial anesthesia decrease the patient's core temperature. Despite routine preventive measures mild intraoperative hypothermia is still common and contributes to postoperative morbidity and mortality. We hypothesized that local insufflation of warm fully humidified CO(2) would increase both the open surgical wound and core temperature. Eighty-three patients undergoing open colon surgery were equally and parallelly randomized to either standard warming measures including forced-air warming, warm fluids, and insulation of limbs and head, or to additional local wound insufflation of warm (37°C) humidified (100% relative humidity) CO(2) at a laminar flow (10 L/min) via a gas diffuser. Wound surface and core temperatures were followed with a heat-sensitive infrared camera and a tympanic thermometer. The mean wound area temperature during surgery was 31.3°C in the warm humidified CO(2) group compared with 29.6°C in the control group (P < 0.001, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2°C to 2.3°C). Also, the mean wound edge temperature during surgery was 30.1°C compared with 28.5°C in the control group (P < 0.001, 95% CI, 0.2°C to 0.7°C). Mean core temperature before start of surgery was similar with 36.7°C ± 0.5°C in the warm humidified CO(2) group versus 36.6°C ± 0.5°C in the control group (95% CI, 0.4 to -0.1°C). At end of surgery, the 2 groups differed significantly with 36.9 ± 0.5°C in the warm humidified CO(2) group versus 36.3 ± 0.5°C in the control group (P < 0.001, 95% CI, 0.38°C to 0.82°C). Moreover, only 8 patients of 40 in the warm humidified CO(2) group had a core temperature <36.5°C (20%, 95% CI, 7 to 33%), whereas in the control group this was the case in 24 of 39 (62%, 95% CI, 46% to 78%, P = 0.001) patients (difference of the percentages between the groups 42%, 95% CI, 22% to 61%, P < 0

Global and Hemispheric Temperature Anomalies: Land and Marine Instrumental Records (1850 - 2015)

DOE Data Explorer

Jones, P. D. [Climatic Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Parker, D. E. [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Berkshire, United Kingdom; Osborn, T. J. [Climatic Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Briffa, K. R. [Climatic Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom

2016-05-01

These global and hemispheric temperature anomaly time series, which incorporate land and marine data, are continually updated and expanded by P. Jones of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) with help from colleagues at the CRU and other institutions. Some of the earliest work in producing these temperature series dates back to Jones et al. (1986a,b,c), Jones (1988, 1994), and Jones and Briffa (1992). Most of the discussion of methods given here has been gleaned from the Frequently Asked Questions section of the CRU temperature data web pages. Users are encouraged to visit the CRU Web site for the most comprehensive overview of these data (the "HadCRUT4" dataset), other associated datasets, and the most recent literature references to the work of Jones et al.

Coldest Temperature Extreme Monotonically Increased and Hottest Extreme Oscillated over Northern Hemisphere Land during Last 114 Years.

PubMed

Zhou, Chunlüe; Wang, Kaicun

2016-05-13

Most studies on global warming rely on global mean surface temperature, whose change is jointly determined by anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) and natural variability. This introduces a heated debate on whether there is a recent warming hiatus and what caused the hiatus. Here, we presented a novel method and applied it to a 5° × 5° grid of Northern Hemisphere land for the period 1900 to 2013. Our results show that the coldest 5% of minimum temperature anomalies (the coldest deviation) have increased monotonically by 0.22 °C/decade, which reflects well the elevated anthropogenic GHG effect. The warmest 5% of maximum temperature anomalies (the warmest deviation), however, display a significant oscillation following the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with a warming rate of 0.07 °C/decade from 1900 to 2013. The warmest (0.34 °C/decade) and coldest deviations (0.25 °C/decade) increased at much higher rates over the most recent decade than last century mean values, indicating the hiatus should not be interpreted as a general slowing of climate change. The significant oscillation of the warmest deviation provides an extension of previous study reporting no pause in the hottest temperature extremes since 1979, and first uncovers its increase from 1900 to 1939 and decrease from 1940 to 1969.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Fremont County, Colorado

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Routt County, Colorado

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled"warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

On the origin of multi-decadal to centennial Greenland temperature anomalies over the past 800 yr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobashi, T.; Shindell, D. T.; Kodera, K.; Box, J. E.; Nakaegawa, T.; Kawamura, K.

2012-11-01

The surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is among the most important climate variables for assessing how climate change may impact human societies associated with accelerating sea level rise. However, the causes of multi-decadal-to-centennial temperature changes in Greenland are not well understood, largely owing to short observational records. To examine the causes of the Greenland temperature variability, we calculated the Greenland temperature anomalies (GTA(G-NH)) over the past 800 yr by subtracting the standardised NH temperature from the standardised Greenland temperature. It decomposes the Greenland temperature variation into background climate (NH); Polar amplification; and Regional variability (GTA(G-NH)). The Central Greenland polar amplification factor as expressed by the variance ratio = Greenland/NH is 2.6 over the past 161 yr, and 3.3-4.2 over the past 800 yr. The GTA explains 31-35% of the variation of Greenland temperature in the multi-decadal-to-centennial time scale over the past 800 yr. Another orthogonal component of the Greenland and NH temperatures, GTP(G+NH) (Greenland temperature plus = standardized Greenland temperature + standardized NH temperature) exhibited the multi-decadal variations that were likely induced by large volcanic eruptions, increasing greenhouse gasses, and internal variation of climate. We found that the GTA(G-NH) has been influenced by solar-induced changes in atmospheric circulation patterns such as those produced by North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO). Climate modelling indicates that the anomaly is also likely linked to solar-paced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and to associated changes in northward oceanic heat transport.

Similar temperature responses suggest future climate warming will not alter partitioning between denitrification and anammox in temperate marine sediments.

PubMed

Brin, Lindsay D; Giblin, Anne E; Rich, Jeremy J

2017-01-01

Removal of biologically available nitrogen (N) by the microbially mediated processes denitrification and anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) affects ecosystem N availability. Although few studies have examined temperature responses of denitrification and anammox, previous work suggests that denitrification could become more important than anammox in response to climate warming. To test this hypothesis, we determined whether temperature responses of denitrification and anammox differed in shelf and estuarine sediments from coastal Rhode Island over a seasonal cycle. The influence of temperature and organic C availability was further assessed in a 12-week laboratory microcosm experiment. Temperature responses, as characterized by thermal optima (T opt ) and apparent activation energy (E a ), were determined by measuring potential rates of denitrification and anammox at 31 discrete temperatures ranging from 3 to 59 °C. With a few exceptions, T opt and E a of denitrification and anammox did not differ in Rhode Island sediments over the seasonal cycle. In microcosm sediments, E a  was somewhat lower for anammox compared to denitrification across all treatments. However, T opt  did not differ between processes, and neither E a  nor T opt  changed with warming or carbon addition. Thus, the two processes behaved similarly in terms of temperature responses, and these responses were not influenced by warming. This led us to reject the hypothesis that anammox is more cold-adapted than denitrification in our study system. Overall, our study suggests that temperature responses of both processes can be accurately modeled for temperate regions in the future using a single set of parameters, which are likely not to change over the next century as a result of predicted climate warming. We further conclude that climate warming will not directly alter the partitioning of N flow through anammox and denitrification. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effect of geomagnetic storm conditions on the equatorial ionization anomaly and equatorial temperature anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bharti, Gaurav; Bag, T.; Sunil Krishna, M. V.

2018-03-01

The effect of the geomagnetic storm on the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) and equatorial temperature anomaly (ETA) has been studied using the atomic oxygen dayglow emissions at 577.7 nm (OI 557.7 nm) and 732.0 nm (OII 732.0 nm). For the purpose of this study, four intense geomagnetic storms during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24 have been considered. This study is primarily based on the results obtained using photochemical models with necessary inputs from theoretical studies and experimental observations. The latest reaction rate coefficients, quantum yields and the corresponding cross-sections have also been incorporated in these models. The volume emission rate of airglow emissions has been calculated using the neutral densities from NRLMSISE-00 and charged densities from IRI-2012 model. The modeled volume emission rate (VER) for OI 557.7 nm shows a positive correlation with the Dst index at 150 km and negative correlation with Dst at 250 and 280 km altitudes. Latitudinal profile of the greenline emission rate at different altitudes show a distinct behaviour similar to what has been observed in EIA with crests on either sides of the equator. The EIA crests are found to show poleward movement in the higher altitude regions. The volume emission rate of 732.0 nm emission shows a strong enhancement during the main phase of the storm. The changes observed in the airglow emission rates are explained with the help of variations induced in neutral densities and parameters related to EIA and ETA. The latitudinal variation of 732.0 nm emission rate is correlated to the variability in EIA during the storm period.

How warm days increase belief in global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

2014-02-01

Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

Large ground surface temperature changes of the last three centuries inferred from borehole temperatures in the Southern Canadian Prairies, Saskatchewan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majorowicz, Jacek A.; Safanda, Jan; Harris, Robert N.; Skinner, Walter R.

1999-05-01

New temperature logs in wells located in the grassland ecozone in the Southern Canadian Prairies in Saskatchewan, where surface disturbance is considered minor, show a large curvature in the upper 100 m. The character of this curvature is consistent with ground surface temperature (GST) warming in the 20th century. Repetition of precise temperature logs in southern Saskatchewan (years 1986 and 1997) shows the conductive nature of warming of the subsurface sediments. The magnitude of surface temperature change during that time (11 years) is high (0.3-0.4°C). To assess the conductive nature of temperature variations at the grassland surface interface, several precise air and soil temperature time series in the southern Canadian Prairies (1965-1995) were analyzed. The combined anomalies correlated at 0.85. Application of the functional space inversion (FSI) technique with the borehole temperature logs and site-specific lithology indicates a warming to date of approximately 2.5°C since a minimum in the late 18th century to mid 19th century. This warming represents an approximate increase from 4°C around 1850 to 6.5°C today. The significance of this record is that it suggests almost half of the warming occurred prior to 1900, before dramatic build up of atmospheric green house gases. This result correlates well with the proxy record of climatic change further to the north, beyond the Arctic Circle [Overpeck, J., Hughen, K., Hardy, D., Bradley, R., Case, R., Douglas, M., Finney, B., Gajewski, K., Jacoby, G., Jennings, A., Lamourex, S., Lasca, A., MacDonald, G., Moore, J., Retelle, M., Smith, S., Wolfe, A., Zielinski, G., 1997. Arctic environmental change of the last four centuries, Science 278, 1251-1256.].

Lunar Tidal Modulation of Periodic Meridional Movement of Equatorial Ionization Anomaly Crest During Sudden Stratospheric Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, X. H.; Zhang, D. H.

2018-02-01

Using the location of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crest derived from GPS observations in China and Brazilian sector, we investigated the longitudinal dependence of periodic meridional movement of EIA crest during sudden stratospheric warming events in 2003, 2006, and 2009. The solar activity was from high to low for the three events. Results show that the locations of EIA crests in both China and Brazilian sectors exhibit obvious and constant 14- to 15-day periodic oscillation being in-phase in two sectors, which coincide with the half of the lunar revolution period (29.53 days) and the lunar phase. The temporal extent of wave power at 14-15 days is consistent with the temporal extent of stratospheric zonal wind, indicating that 14- to 15-day periodic meridional movement of EIA crest is due to enhanced lunar tide modulated by zonal wind. In addition, it is also found that the amplitude of 14- to 15-day periodic oscillation of EIA crest in China sector is larger than that in Brazilian sector, which may be caused by the longitudinal variation of tides and neutral wind pattern.

Higher climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon in cold than warm climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, Charles D.; Hugelius, Gustaf; Lawrence, David M.; Wieder, William R.

2017-11-01

The projected loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere resulting from climate change is a potentially large but highly uncertain feedback to warming. The magnitude of this feedback is poorly constrained by observations and theory, and is disparately represented in Earth system models (ESMs). To assess the climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon, we calculate apparent soil carbon turnover times that reflect long-term and broad-scale rates of decomposition. Here, we show that the climatological temperature control on carbon turnover in the top metre of global soils is more sensitive in cold climates than in warm climates and argue that it is critical to capture this emergent ecosystem property in global-scale models. We present a simplified model that explains the observed high cold-climate sensitivity using only the physical scaling of soil freeze-thaw state across climate gradients. Current ESMs fail to capture this pattern, except in an ESM that explicitly resolves vertical gradients in soil climate and carbon turnover. An observed weak tropical temperature sensitivity emerges in a different model that explicitly resolves mineralogical control on decomposition. These results support projections of strong carbon-climate feedbacks from northern soils and demonstrate a method for ESMs to capture this emergent behaviour.

Surface-Wind Anomalies in North-Atlantic and North Pacific from SSM/I Observations: Influence on Temperature of Adjoining Land Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, Joseph; Atlas, R.; Ingraham, J.; Ardizzone, J.; Starr, D.; Terry, J.

1998-01-01

Surface winds over the oceans are derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) measurements, assigning direction by Variational Analysis Method (VAM). Validations by comparison with other measurements indicate highly-satisfactory data quality. Providing global coverage from 1988, the dataset is a convenient source for surface-wind climatology. In this study, the interannual variability of zonal winds is analyzed concentrating on the westerlies in North Atlantic and North Pacific, above 30 N. Interannual differences in the westerlies exceeding 10 m sec (exp -1) are observed over large regions, often accompanied by changes of the same magnitude in the easterlies below 30 N. We concentrate on February/March, since elevated temperatures, by advancing snow-melt, can produce early spring. The extremely strong westerlies in 1997 observed in these months over North Atlantic (and also North Pacific) apparently contributed to large surface-temperature anomalies in western Europe, on the order of +3 C above the climatic monthly average for England and France. At these latitudes strong positive anomalies extended in a ring around the globe. We formulated an Index of South westerlies for the North Atlantic, which can serve as an indicator for day-by-day advection effects into Europe. In comparing 1997 and 1998 with the previous years, we establish significant correlations with the temperature anomalies (one to five days later, depending on the region, and on the season). This variability of the ocean-surface winds and of the temperature anomalies on land may be related to the El Nino/La Nina oscillations. Such large temperature fluctuations over large areas, whatever the cause, can be regarded as noise in attempts to assess long-term trends in global temperature.

Impact of cool versus warm temperatures on gestation in the aspic viper (Vipera aspis).

PubMed

Michel, Catherine Louise; Pastore, Jean-Henri; Bonnet, Xavier

2013-07-01

Previous experimental data suggested that digestion and growth rates are not impaired under cool constant temperature (23°C) in a viviparous snake (Vipera aspis). These results challenged the widespread notion that both elevated temperatures (e.g. 30°C) and temperature fluctuations are required for digestion and growth in temperate climate reptiles. Here, we investigated the impact of constant cool temperatures on another physiological performance that is crucial to population persistence: gestation. At the time when reproductive females were midway through vitellogenesis, we placed ten reproductive and two non-reproductive female aspic vipers at each of two contrasted constant temperature conditions: cool (23°C) versus warm (28°C). Sixty percent of the females placed at 28°C gave birth to healthy offspring, suggesting that constant warm body temperatures were compatible with normal offspring production. Conversely, none of the cool females gave birth to healthy offspring. A blister disease affected exclusively cool pregnant females. Apparently, the combination of cool temperatures plus gestation was too challenging for such females. Our results suggest that reproduction is more thermally sensitive than digestion or growth, indeed gestation faltered under moderately cool thermal constraints. This sensitivity could be a crucial factor determining the capacity of this species to colonize different habitats. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions.

PubMed

Moyes, Andrew B; Germino, Matthew J; Kueppers, Lara M

2015-09-01

Climate change is altering plant species distributions globally, and warming is expected to promote uphill shifts in mountain trees. However, at many cold-edge range limits, such as alpine treelines in the western United States, tree establishment may be colimited by low temperature and low moisture, making recruitment patterns with warming difficult to predict. We measured response functions linking carbon (C) assimilation and temperature- and moisture-related microclimatic factors for limber pine (Pinus flexilis) seedlings growing in a heating × watering experiment within and above the alpine treeline. We then extrapolated these response functions using observed microclimate conditions to estimate the net effects of warming and associated soil drying on C assimilation across an entire growing season. Moisture and temperature limitations were each estimated to reduce potential growing season C gain from a theoretical upper limit by 15-30% (c. 50% combined). Warming above current treeline conditions provided relatively little benefit to modeled net assimilation, whereas assimilation was sensitive to either wetter or drier conditions. Summer precipitation may be at least as important as temperature in constraining C gain by establishing subalpine trees at and above current alpine treelines as seasonally dry subalpine and alpine ecosystems continue to warm. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

[Effects of climate warming and drying on millet yield in Gansu Province and related countermeasures].

PubMed

Cao, Ling; Wang, Qiang; Deng, Zhen-yong; Guo, Xiao-qin; Ma, Xing-xiang; Ning, Hui-fang

2010-11-01

Based on the data of air temperature, precipitation, and millet yield from Ganzhou, Anding, and Xifeng, the representative stations in Hexi moderate arid oasis irrigation area, moderate sub-arid dry area in middle Gansu, and moderate sub-humid dry area in eastern Gansu, respectively, this paper calculated the regional active accumulated temperature of > or = 0 degrees C, > or =5 degrees C, > or =10 degrees C, > or =15 degrees C, and > or =20 degrees C in millet growth period, and the average temperature and precipitation in millet key growth stages. The millet climatic yield was isolated by orthogonal polynomial, and the change characteristics of climate and millet climatic yield as well as the effects of climate change on millet yield were analyzed by statistical methods of linear tendency, cumulative anomaly, and Mann-Kendall. The results showed that warming and drying were the main regional features in the modern climatic change of Gansu. The regional temperature had a significant upward trend since the early 1990s, while the precipitation was significantly reduced from the late 1980s. There were significant correlations between millet yield and climatic factors. The millet yield in dry areas increased with the increasing temperature and precipitation in millet key growth stages, and that in Hexi Corridor area increased with increasing temperature. Warming and drying affected millet yield prominently. The weather fluctuation index of regional millet yield in Xifeng, Anding, and Ganzhou accounted for 73%, 72%, and 54% of real output coefficient variation, respectively, and the percentages increased significantly after warming. Warming was conducive to the increase of millet production, and the annual increment of millet climatic yield in Xifeng, Anding, and Ganzhou after warming was 30.6, 43.1, and 121.1 kg x hm(-2), respectively. Aiming at the warming and drying trend in Gansu Province in the future, the millet planting area in the Province should be further

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.

2018-05-01

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the

Recent Warming of Lake Kivu

PubMed Central

Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A.; Crowe, Sean A.; Hecky, Robert E.

2014-01-01

Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient. PMID:25295730

Recent warming of lake Kivu.

PubMed

Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A; Crowe, Sean A; Hecky, Robert E

2014-01-01

Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

Interannual Variations in Arctic Winter Temperature: The Role of Global Scale Teleconnections

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

also advect warm air northward and eastward between Iceland and Scandinavia . Figure 7 shows the LTM patterns of global Z200 and shows the normal...with an extension of this warm anomaly into the subpolar regions of the North Atlantic (i.e., Baffin Bay- Scandinavia ). Weak positive anomalies in...positive anomalies over northern Siberia and Scandinavia . We speculate that these areas of positive and negative anomalies in Z850, and implied WAA, may

Phytoplankton Community Structure in 2011-2013 Compared to the Extratropical Warming Event of 2014-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, X.; Peterson, W. T.

2018-02-01

Coastal waters of the Northern California Current experienced "normal" ocean conditions in 2011-2012, weak upwelling in 2013-2014, then suddenly warmed in September 2014. The response of phytoplankton community structure to contrasting ocean conditions was determined from samples collected off Newport, Oregon. Cluster analysis identified three prominent phytoplankton community types: one that occurred during the upwelling season characterized by the highest abundance and diversity of diatoms, a preupwelling/relaxation community characterized by lower abundance, lowest diversity of diatoms and dinoflagellates, and another one associated with the warm anomalies from September 2014 through 2015 with reduced diatom abundance and diversity but the highest dinoflagellate diversity. The changes of diatom and dinoflagellate community were correlated with local factors (silicate, silicate: nitrate ratios, temperature, and salinity), and with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Forced-Air Warming During Pediatric Surgery: A Randomized Comparison of a Compressible with a Noncompressible Warming System.

PubMed

Triffterer, Lydia; Marhofer, Peter; Sulyok, Irene; Keplinger, Maya; Mair, Stefan; Steinberger, Markus; Klug, Wolfgang; Kimberger, Oliver

2016-01-01

Perioperative hypothermia is a common problem, challenging the anesthesiologist and influencing patient outcome. Efficient and safe perioperative active warming is therefore paramount; yet, it can be particularly challenging in pediatric patients. Forced-air warming technology is the most widespread patient-warming option, with most forced-air warming systems consisting of a forced-air blower connected to a compressible, double layer plastic and/or a paper blanket with air holes on the patient side. We compared an alternative, forced-air, noncompressible, under-body patient-warming mattress (Baby/Kleinkinddecke of MoeckWarmingSystems, Moeck und Moeck GmbH; group MM) with a standard, compressible warming mattress system (Pediatric Underbody, Bair Hugger, 3M; group BH). The study included 80 patients aged <2 years, scheduled for elective surgery. After a preoperative core temperature measurement, the patients were placed on the randomized mattress in the operation theater and 4 temperature probes were applied rectally and to the patients' skin. The warming devices were turned on as soon as possible to the level for pediatric patients as recommended by the manufacturer (MM = 40°C, BH = 43°C). There was a distinct difference of temperature slope between the 2 groups: core temperatures of patients in the group MM remained stable and mean of the core temperature of patients in the group BH increased significantly (difference: +1.48°C/h; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-2.15°C/h; P = 0.0001). The need for temperature downregulation occurred more often in the BH group, with 22 vs 7 incidences (RR, 3.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.52-6.52; P = 0.0006). Skin temperatures were all lower in the MM group. Perioperatively, no side effects related to a warming device were observed in any group. Both devices are feasible choices for active pediatric patient warming, with the compressible mattress system being better suited to increase core temperature. The use of lower pediatric

Effect of specific pathways to 1.5°C global warming on the contribution of Greenland to sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humbert, A.; Rückamp, M.; Falk, U.; Frieler, K.

2017-12-01

Sea level rise associated with changing climate is expected to pose a major challenge for societies. Here, we estimate the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea level change in terms of different emission scenarios. We investigate the effect of different pathways of global warming on the dynamics and mass balance of the GrIS with a focus on scenarios in line with limiting global warming to 2.0° or even 1.5° by the end of 2100 (Paris Agreement). We particularly address the issue of peak and decline scenarios temporarily exceeding a given temperature limit. This kind of overshooting might have strong effects on the evolution of the GrIS. Furthermore, we investigate the long-term effects of different levels of climate change to estimate the threshold for stabilizing the GrIS. For modeling the flow dynamics and future evolution of the GrIS, we apply the thermo-mechanical coupled Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). The model is forced with anomalies for temperature and surface mass balance derived from different GCM data from the CMIP5 RCP2.6 scenario provided from the ISIMIP2b project. In order to obtain these anomalies from the GCM data, a surface energy balance model is applied.

Anomalies detected in Central European Temperature series reconstructed from documentary evidence and instrumental records for the last 500 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrovolný, P.; Brázdil, R.; Moberg, A.; Wilson, R.

2009-09-01

Various types of documentary evidence from Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Republic have been used to create temperature indices for the period 1500-1854. Homogenized temperature series from 11 Central European stations covering the period 1760-2007 served as target values to reconstruct monthly, seasonal and annual temperatures in Central Europe since AD 1500. Spatial coherency of the compiled Central European Temperature (CEuT) series is presented. The CEuT series is further used to define extremely cold/warm months and seasons and the spatial and temporal distribution of such extremes are presented in context of existing knowledge of climate variability within Europe. The CEuT extremes are compared to corresponding documentary based chronologies from other European countries or regions as well as reconstructions from other proxies (e.g. tree rings). The most pronounced cold/warm seasons are analyzed with respect to potential causes and also with respect to recent warming trends. We discuss the potential of documentary evidence to study weather and climate extremes and show that such data provide valuable information for studying past human response to climatic extremes.

Experimental winter warming modifies thermal performance and primes acorn ants for warm weather.

PubMed

MacLean, Heidi J; Penick, Clint A; Dunn, Robert R; Diamond, Sarah E

2017-07-01

The frequency of warm winter days is increasing under global climate change, but how organisms respond to warmer winters is not well understood. Most studies focus on growing season responses to warming. Locomotor performance is often highly sensitive to temperature, and can determine fitness outcomes through a variety of mechanisms including resource acquisition and predator escape. As a consequence, locomotor performance, and its impacts on fitness, may be strongly affected by winter warming in winter-active species. Here we use the acorn ant, Temnothorax curvispinosus, to explore how thermal performance (temperature-driven plasticity) in running speed is influenced by experimental winter warming of 3-5°C above ambient in a field setting. We used running speed as a measure of performance as it is a common locomotor trait that influences acquisition of nest sites and food in acorn ants. Experimental winter warming significantly altered thermal performance for running speed at high (26 and 36°C) but not low test temperatures (6 and 16°C). Although we saw little differentiation in thermal performance at cooler test temperatures, we saw a marked increase in running speed at the hotter test temperatures for ants that experienced warmer winters compared with those that experienced cooler winters. Our results provide evidence that overwintering temperatures can substantially influence organismal performance, and suggest that we cannot ignore overwintering effects when forecasting organismal responses to environmental changes in temperature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ENSO related SST anomalies and relation with surface heat fluxes over south Pacific and Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, S.; Nuncio, M.; Satheesan, K.

2017-07-01

The role of surface heat fluxes in Southern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SST anomalies associated with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is studied using observation and ocean reanalysis products. A prominent dipole structure in SST anomaly is found with a positive (negative) anomaly center over south Pacific (65S-45S, 120W-70W) and negative (positive) one over south Atlantic (50S-30S, 30W-0E) during austral summer (DJF) of El Nino (LaNina). During late austral spring-early summer (OND) of El Nino (LaNina), anomalous northerly (southerly) meridional moisture transport and a positive (negative) sea level pressure anomaly induces a suppressed (enhanced) latent heat flux from the ocean surface over south Pacific. This in turn results in a shallower than normal mixed layer depth which further helps in development of the SST anomaly. Mixed layer thins further due to anomalous shortwave radiation during summer and a well developed SST anomaly evolves. The south Atlantic pole exhibits exactly opposite characteristics at the same time. The contribution from the surface heat fluxes to mixed layer temperature change is found to be dominant over the advective processes over both the basins. Net surface heat fluxes anomaly is also found to be maximum during late austral spring-early summer period, with latent heat flux having a major contribution to it. The anomalous latent heat fluxes between atmosphere and ocean surface play important role in the growth of observed summertime SST anomaly. Sea-surface height also shows similar out-of-phase signatures over the two basins and are well correlated with the ENSO related SST anomalies. It is also observed that the magnitude of ENSO related anomalies over the southern ocean are weaker in LaNina years than in El Nino years, suggesting an intensified tropics-high latitude tele-connection during warm phases of ENSO.

Influences of spawning timing, water temperature, and climatic warming on early life history phenology in western Alaska sockeye salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sparks, Morgan M.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Quinn, Thomas P.; Adkison, Milo D.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Bartz, Krista K.; Young, Daniel B.; Westley, Peter A. H.

2018-01-01

We applied an empirical model to predict hatching and emergence timing for 25 western Alaska sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations in four lake-nursery systems to explore current patterns and potential responses of early life history phenology to warming water temperatures. Given experienced temperature regimes during development, we predicted hatching to occur in as few as 58 d to as many as 260 d depending on spawning timing and temperature. For a focal lake spawning population, our climate-lake temperature model predicted a water temperature increase of 0.7 to 1.4 °C from 2015 to 2099 during the incubation period, which translated to a 16 d to 30 d earlier hatching timing. The most extreme scenarios of warming advanced development by approximately a week earlier than historical minima and thus climatic warming may lead to only modest shifts in phenology during the early life history stage of this population. The marked variation in the predicted timing of hatching and emergence among populations in close proximity on the landscape may serve to buffer this metapopulation from climate change.

Magnetic study of the low temperature anomalies in the underdoped PrBCO compound

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahoubi, Mahieddine

2018-05-01

The low temperature anomalous magnetic properties of a non-superconducting PrBCO6+x compound in an underdoped oxygen state of concentration (x = 0.44) are characterized by paraprocess magnetic susceptibility χH(T) measurements carried out as a function of temperature T under different values of a DC magnetic field H up to 110 kOe. The derivatives dχH(T)/dT curves reveal a significant reduction with increasing H in the Néel temperature TN = 9 K of the Pr antiferromagnetic (AFM) ordering for which the transition subsists at 100 kOe. The small anomaly at T2 = 6-7 K is confirmed at 20 kOe and the previous spin reorientation attributed to this transition temperature seems to be suppressed above 60 kOe. The well defined anomaly in the vicinity of the low-critical point Tcr = 4-5 K which occurs simultaneously, is still present when the strength of H is increased up to 100 kOe. Weak field induced phase transitions are observed between T2 and TN at a low transition-field (Ht<11 kOe) in the differential magnetic susceptibility dMT(H)/dH as a function of H deduced from the isothermal magnetizations MT(H) with H up to 21 kOe, whereas a weak ferromagnetic behavior of the Pr sublattice appears below Tcr. The magnetic field effects give rise to more evidence for the Pr-Cu(2) coupling with 'exchange-frustrated AFM' interactions and ascertain the main role of the Pr sublattice whereas the Cu(2) sublattice seems to be less efficient.

A study of the dynamics of droughts in Northern Brazil: Observations, theory, and numerical experiments with a global atmospheric circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, J.; Moura, A. D.

1980-01-01

The monthly mean sea surface temperature anomalies over tropical Altantic and rainfall anomalies over two selected stations for 25 years (1948-1972) were examined. It is found that the most severe drought events are associated with the simultaneous occurrence of warm sea surface temperature anomalies over north and cold sea surface temperature anomalies over south tropical Atlantic. Simultaneous occurrences of warm sea surface temperature anomaly at 15 deg N, 45 deg W and cold sea surface temperature anomaly at 15 deg S, 5 deg W were always associated with negative anomalies of rainfall, and vice versa. A simple primitive equation model is used to calculate the frictionally controlled and thermally driven circulation due to a prescribed heating function in a resting atmosphere.

Observed modes of sea surface temperature variability in the South Pacific region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saurral, Ramiro I.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; García-Serrano, Javier

2018-02-01

The South Pacific (SP) region exerts large control on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere at many times scales. This paper identifies the main modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the SP which consist of a tropical-driven mode related to a horseshoe structure of positive/negative SST anomalies within midlatitudes and highly correlated to ENSO and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) variability, and another mode mostly confined to extratropical latitudes which is characterized by zonal propagation of SST anomalies within the South Pacific Gyre. Both modes are associated with temperature and rainfall anomalies over the continental regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Besides the leading mode which is related to well known warmer/cooler and drier/moister conditions due to its relationship with ENSO and the IPO, an inspection of the extratropical mode indicates that it is associated with distinct patterns of sea level pressure and surface temperature advection. These relationships are used here as plausible and partial explanations to the observed warming trend observed within the Southern Hemisphere during the last decades.