Past and future warming of a deep European lake (Lake Lugano): What are the climatic drivers?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lepori, Fabio; Roberts, James J.

2015-01-01

We used four decades (1972–2013) of temperature data from Lake Lugano, Switzerland and Italy, to address the hypotheses that: [i] the lake has been warming; [ii] part of the warming reflects global trends and is independent from climatic oscillations and [iii] the lake will continue to warm until the end of the 21st century. During the time spanned by our data, the surface waters of the lake (0–5 m) warmed at rates of 0.2–0.9 °C per decade, depending on season. The temperature of the deep waters (50-m bottom) displayed a rising trend in a meromictic basin of the lake and a sawtooth pattern in the other basin, which is holomictic. Long-term variation in surfacewater temperature correlated to global warming and multidecadal variation in two climatic oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the East Atlantic Pattern (EA).However, we did not detect an influence of the EA on the lake's temperature (as separate from the effect of global warming). Moreover, the effect of the AMO, estimated to a maximum of +1 °C, was not sufficient to explain the observed temperature increase (+2–3 °C in summer). Based on regional climate projections, we predicted that the lake will continue to warm at least until the end of the 21st century. Our results strongly suggest that the warming of Lake Lugano is tied to globalclimate change. To sustain current ecosystem conditions in Lake Lugano, we suggest that manage- ment plans that curtail eutrophication and (or) mitigation of global warming be pursued.

Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Calaveri, Molly A.; Reed, Sasha C.; Smith, W. Kolby; Wood, Tana E.

2015-01-01

Although tropical forests account for only a fraction of the planet's terrestrial surface, they exchange more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other biome on Earth, and thus play a disproportionate role in the global climate. In the next 20 years, the tropics will experience unprecedented warming, yet there is exceedingly high uncertainty about their potential responses to this imminent climatic change. Here, we prioritize research approaches given both funding and logistical constraints in order to resolve major uncertainties about how tropical forests function and also to improve predictive capacity of earth system models. We investigate overall model uncertainty of tropical latitudes and explore the scientific benefits and inevitable trade-offs inherent in large-scale manipulative field experiments. With a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 analysis, we found that model variability in projected net ecosystem production was nearly 3 times greater in the tropics than for any other latitude. Through a review of the most current literature, we concluded that manipulative warming experiments are vital to accurately predict future tropical forest carbon balance, and we further recommend the establishment of a network of comparable studies spanning gradients of precipitation, edaphic qualities, plant types, and/or land use change. We provide arguments for long-term, single-factor warming experiments that incorporate warming of the most biogeochemically active ecosystem components (i.e. leaves, roots, soil microbes). Hypothesis testing of underlying mechanisms should be a priority, along with improving model parameterization and constraints. No single tropical forest is representative of all tropical forests; therefore logistical feasibility should be the most important consideration for locating large-scale manipulative experiments. Above all, we advocate for multi-faceted research programs, and we offer arguments for what we consider the most

Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests.

PubMed

Cavaleri, Molly A; Reed, Sasha C; Smith, W Kolby; Wood, Tana E

2015-06-01

Although tropical forests account for only a fraction of the planet's terrestrial surface, they exchange more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other biome on Earth, and thus play a disproportionate role in the global climate. In the next 20 years, the tropics will experience unprecedented warming, yet there is exceedingly high uncertainty about their potential responses to this imminent climatic change. Here, we prioritize research approaches given both funding and logistical constraints in order to resolve major uncertainties about how tropical forests function and also to improve predictive capacity of earth system models. We investigate overall model uncertainty of tropical latitudes and explore the scientific benefits and inevitable trade-offs inherent in large-scale manipulative field experiments. With a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 analysis, we found that model variability in projected net ecosystem production was nearly 3 times greater in the tropics than for any other latitude. Through a review of the most current literature, we concluded that manipulative warming experiments are vital to accurately predict future tropical forest carbon balance, and we further recommend the establishment of a network of comparable studies spanning gradients of precipitation, edaphic qualities, plant types, and/or land use change. We provide arguments for long-term, single-factor warming experiments that incorporate warming of the most biogeochemically active ecosystem components (i.e. leaves, roots, soil microbes). Hypothesis testing of underlying mechanisms should be a priority, along with improving model parameterization and constraints. No single tropical forest is representative of all tropical forests; therefore logistical feasibility should be the most important consideration for locating large-scale manipulative experiments. Above all, we advocate for multi-faceted research programs, and we offer arguments for what we consider the most

Will hypolimnetic waters become anoxic in all deep tropical lakes?

PubMed Central

Fukushima, Takehiko; Matsushita, Bunkei; Subehi, Luki; Setiawan, Fajar; Wibowo, Hendro

2017-01-01

To elucidate trends of hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations, vertical distributions of dissolved oxygen were measured in eight deep tropical bodies of water (one natural lake with two basins, five natural lakes, and one reservoir) in Indonesia. A comparison of those concentrations with previously reported data revealed that shoaling of hypolimnetic oxygen-deficient (around a few decimeters to a few meter per year) water had occurred in all of the lakes. Calculated areal hypolimnetic oxygen depletion rates were 0.046–5.9 g m−2 y−1. The oligomictic or meromictic characteristics of the bodies of water suppressed circulation and mixing in the hypolimnions and thus resulted in continuous shoaling of the uppermost oxygen-deficient layers. In some lakes, millions of fish sometimes died suddenly, probably owing to upward movement of oxygen-deficient water to near the surface during periods of strong winds. In the future, the rate of shoaling will be accelerated by human impacts in the basins and by climate warming, the influence of which has already been manifested by rising water temperatures in these lakes. Appropriate monitoring and discussions of future restoration challenges are urgently needed to prevent the hypolimnions of the lakes from becoming completely anoxic.

Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Reilly, Catherine; Sharma, Sapna; Gray, Derek; Hampton, Stephanie; Read, Jordan S.; Rowley, Rex J.; Schneider, Philipp; Lenters, John D.; McIntyre, Peter B.; Kraemer, Benjamin M.; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Straile, Dietmar; Dong, Bo; Adrian, Rita; Allan, Mathew G.; Anneville, Orlane; Arvola, Lauri; Austin, Jay; Bailey, John L.; Baron, Jill S.; Brookes, Justin D; de Eyto, Elvira; Dokulil, Martin T.; Hamilton, David P.; Havens, Karl; Hetherington, Amy L.; Higgins, Scott N.; Hook, Simon; Izmest'eva, Lyubov R.; Jöhnk, Klaus D.; Kangur, Külli; Kasprzak, Peter; Kumagai, Michio; Kuusisto, Esko; Leshkevich, George; Livingstone, David M.; MacIntyre, Sally; May, Linda; Melack, John M.; Mueller-Navara, Doerthe C.; Naumenko, Mikhail; Noges, Peeter; Noges, Tiina; North, Ryan P.; Plisnier, Pierre-Denis; Rigosi, Anna; Rimmer, Alon; Rogora, Michela; Rudstam, Lars G.; Rusak, James A.; Salmaso, Nico; Samal, Nihar R.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Schladow, Geoffrey; Schmid, Martin; Schmidt, Silke R.; Silow, Eugene A.; Soylu, M. Evren; Teubner, Katrin; Verburg, Piet; Voutilainen, Ari; Watkinson, Andrew; Williamson, Craig E.; Zhang, Guoqing

2015-01-01

In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite-derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade−1) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors—from seasonally ice-covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade−1) to ice-free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade−1). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes.

Mechanistic Lake Modeling to Understand and Predict Heterogeneous Responses to Climate Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, J. S.; Winslow, L. A.; Rose, K. C.; Hansen, G. J.

2016-12-01

Substantial warming has been documented for of hundreds globally distributed lakes, with likely impacts on ecosystem processes. Despite a clear pattern of widespread warming, thermal responses of individual lakes to climate change are often heterogeneous, with the warming rates of neighboring lakes varying across depths and among seasons. We aggregated temperature observations and parameterized mechanistic models for 9,000 lakes in the U.S. states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan to examine broad-scale lake warming trends and among-lake diversity. Daily lake temperature profiles and ice-cover dynamics were simulated using the General Lake Model for the contemporary period (1979-2015) using drivers from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) and for contemporary and future periods (1980-2100) using downscaled data from six global circulation models driven by the Representative Climate Pathway 8.5 scenario. For the contemporary period, modeled vs observed summer mean surface temperatures had a root mean squared error of 0.98°C with modeled warming trends similar to observed trends. Future simulations under the extreme 8.5 scenario predicted a median lake summer surface warming rate of 0.57°C/decade until mid-century, with slower rates in the later half of the 21st century (0.35°C/decade). Modeling scenarios and analysis of field data suggest that the lake-specific properties of size, water clarity, and depth are strong controls on the sensitivity of lakes to climate change. For example, a simulated 1% annual decline in water clarity was sufficient to override the effects of climate warming on whole lake water temperatures in some - but not all - study lakes. Understanding heterogeneous lake responses to climate variability can help identify lake-specific features that influence resilience to climate change.

An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Jian; Liu, Qinyu; Wang, Chuanyang

2018-03-01

Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.

The Summertime Warming Trends in Surface Water Temperature of the Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyama, N.; Kravtsov, S.; Roebber, P.

2014-12-01

Over the past 30 years, the Laurentian Great Lakes have exhibited summertime warming trends in surface water temperature which were greater than those in surface air temperature of the surrounding land, by as much as an order of magnitude over some of the regions. For the years 1995-2012, Lake Superior exhibited the most dramatic warming trend in July-mean temperature, of 0.27±0.15 deg. C yr-1, based on the NOAA's GLSEA satellite observations. Shallower lakes, such as Lake Erie, exhibited smaller warming trends. In addition, within each lake, the warming was also the greatest in the regions of larger water depth; for example, some regions of Lake Superior deeper than 200m exhibited surface-water July-mean warming trends which exceeded 0.3 deg. C yr-1. We used a three-column lake model based on the one developed by Hostetler and Barnstein (1990) coupled with a two-layer atmospheric energy balance model to explore the physics behind these warming trends. We found that, as suggested by Austin and Colman (2007), the ice-albedo feedback plays an important role in amplifying the overlake warming trends. Our particular emphasis was on the question of whether the ice-albedo feedback alone is enough to account for lacustrine amplification of surface warming observed over the Great Lakes region. We found that the answer to this question depends on a number of model parameters, including the diffusion and light attenuation coefficients, which greatly affect the model's skill in reproducing the observed ice coverage of the deep lakes.

Southern Hemisphere and deep-sea warming led deglacial atmospheric CO2 rise and tropical warming.

PubMed

Stott, Lowell; Timmermann, Axel; Thunell, Robert

2007-10-19

Establishing what caused Earth's largest climatic changes in the past requires a precise knowledge of both the forcing and the regional responses. We determined the chronology of high- and low-latitude climate change at the last glacial termination by radiocarbon dating benthic and planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope and magnesium/calcium records from a marine core collected in the western tropical Pacific. Deep-sea temperatures warmed by approximately 2 degrees C between 19 and 17 thousand years before the present (ky B.P.), leading the rise in atmospheric CO2 and tropical-surface-ocean warming by approximately 1000 years. The cause of this deglacial deep-water warming does not lie within the tropics, nor can its early onset between 19 and 17 ky B.P. be attributed to CO2 forcing. Increasing austral-spring insolation combined with sea-ice albedo feedbacks appear to be the key factors responsible for this warming.

Decadal Variation's Offset of Global Warming in Recent Tropical Pacific Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeo, S. R.; Yeh, S. W.; Kim, K. Y.; Kim, W.

2015-12-01

Despite the increasing greenhouse gas concentration, there is no significant warming in the sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical eastern Pacific since about 2000. This counterintuitive observation has generated substantial interest in the role of low-frequency variation over the Pacific Ocean such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Therefore, it is necessary to appropriately separate low-frequency variability and global warming from SST records. Here we present three primary modes of global SST as a secular warming trend, a low-frequency variability, and a biennial oscillation through the use of novel statistical method. By analyzing temporal behavior of the three-mode, it is found that the opposite contributions of secular warming trend and cold phase of low-frequency variability since 1999 account for the warming hiatus in the tropical eastern Pacific. This result implies that the low-frequency variability modulates the manifestation of global warming signal in the tropical Pacific SST. Furthermore, if the low-frequency variability turns to a positive phase, warming in the tropical eastern Pacific will be amplified and also strong El Niño events will occur more frequently in the near future.

Infrared heater system for warming tropical forest understory plants and soils

Treesearch

Bruce A. Kimball; Aura M. Alonso-Rodríguez; Molly A. Cavaleri; Sasha C. Reed; Grizelle González; Tana E. Wood

2018-01-01

The response of tropical forests to global warming is one of the largest uncertainties in predicting the future carbon balance of Earth. To determine the likely effects of elevated temperatures on tropical forest understory plants and soils, as well as other ecosystems, an infrared (IR) heater system was developed to provide in situ warming for the Tropical Responses...

Commentary: Urgent need for large-scale warming manipulation experiments in tropical forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavaleri, M. A.; Wood, T. E.; Reed, S.

2013-12-01

Tropical forests represent the largest fluxes of carbon into and out of the atmosphere of any terrestrial ecosystem type on earth. Despite their clear biogeochemical importance, responses of tropical forests to global warming are more uncertain than for any other biome. This uncertainty stems primarily from a lack of mechanistic data, in part because warming manipulation field experiments have been located almost exclusively in higher latitude systems. As a result of the large fluxes, lack of data, and high uncertainty, recent studies have highlighted the tropics as a 'high priority region' for future climate change research. We argue that warming manipulation experiments are urgently needed in tropical forests that are: 1) single-factor, 2) large-scale, and 3) long-term. The emergence of a novel heat regime is predicted for the tropics within the next two decades, and tropical forest trees may be more susceptible to warming than previously thought. Over a decade of Free Air CO2 Enrichment experiments have shown that single-factor studies that integrate above- and belowground function can be the most informative and efficient means of informing models, which can then be used to determine interactive effects of multiple factors. Warming both above- and below-ground parts of an ecosystem would be fundamental to the understanding of whole-ecosystem and net carbon responses because of the multiple feedbacks between tree canopy, root, and soil function. Finally, evidence from high-latitude warming experiments highlight the importance of long-term studies by suggesting that key processes related to carbon cycling, like soil respiration, could acclimate with extended warming. Despite the fact that there has never been a long-term ecosystem-level warming experiment in any forest, the technology is available, and momentum is gathering. In order to study the effects of warming on tropical forests, which contribute disproportionately to global carbon balance, full

Tropical rain forest biogeochemistry in a warmer world: initial results from a novel warming experiment in a Puerto Rico tropical forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, S.; Cavaleri, M. A.; Alonso-Rodríguez, A. M.; Kimball, B. A.; Wood, T. E.

2016-12-01

Tropical forests represent one of the planet's most active biogeochemical engines. They account for the dominant proportion of Earth's live terrestrial plant biomass, nearly one-third of all soil carbon, and exchange more CO2 with the atmosphere than any other biome. In the coming decades, the tropics will experience extraordinary changes in temperature, and our understanding of how this warming will affect biogeochemical cycling remains notably poor. Given the large amounts of carbon tropical forests store and cycle, it is no surprise that our limited ability to characterize tropical forest responses to climate change may represent the largest hurdle in accurately predicting Earth's future climate. Here we describe initial results from the world's first tropical forest field warming experiment, where forest understory plants and soils are being warmed 4 °C above ambient temperatures. This Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) was established in a rain forest in Puerto Rico to investigate the effects of increased temperature on key biological processes that control tropical forest carbon cycling, and to establish the steps that need to be taken to resolve the uncertainties surrounding tropical forest responses to warming. In this talk we will describe the experimental design, as well as the wide range of measurements being conducted. We will also present results from the initial phase of warming, including data on how increased temperatures from infrared lamp warming affected soil moisture, soil respiration rates, a suite of carbon pools, soil microbial biomass, nutrient availability, and the exchange of elements between leaf litter and soil. These data represent a first look into tropical rain forest responses to an experimentally-warmed climate in the field, and provide exciting insight into the non-linear ways tropical biogeochemical cycles respond to change. Overall, we strive to improve Earth System Model parameterization of the pools and

The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2016-09-01

Global mean surface temperature change over the past 120 years resembles a rising staircase: the overall warming trend was interrupted by the mid-twentieth-century big hiatus and the warming slowdown since about 1998. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation has been implicated in modulations of global mean surface temperatures, but which part of the mode drives the variability in warming rates is unclear. Here we present a successful simulation of the global warming staircase since 1900 with a global ocean-atmosphere coupled model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution. Without prescribed tropical Pacific variability, the same model, on average, produces a continual warming trend that accelerates after the 1960s. We identify four events where the tropical Pacific decadal cooling markedly slowed down the warming trend. Matching the observed spatial and seasonal fingerprints we identify the tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the warming staircase, with radiative forcing driving the overall warming trend. Specifically, tropical Pacific variability amplifies the first warming epoch of the 1910s-1940s and determines the timing when the big hiatus starts and ends. Our method of removing internal variability from the observed record can be used for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.

Tropical forest soil microbes and climate warming: An Andean-Amazon gradient and `SWELTR'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nottingham, A.; Turner, B. L.; Fierer, N.; Whitaker, J.; Ostle, N. J.; McNamara, N. P.; Bardgett, R.; Silman, M.; Bååth, E.; Salinas, N.; Meir, P.

2017-12-01

Climate warming predicted for the tropics in the coming century will result in average temperatures under which no closed canopy forest exists today. There is, therefore, great uncertainty associated with the direction and magnitude of feedbacks between tropical forests and our future climate - especially relating to the response of soil microbes and the third of global soil carbon contained in tropical forests. While warming experiments are yet to be performed in tropical forests, natural temperature gradients are powerful tools to investigate temperature effects on soil microbes. Here we draw on studies from a 3.5 km elevation gradient - and 20oC mean annual temperature gradient - in Peruvian tropical forest, to investigate how temperature affects the structure of microbial communities, microbial metabolism, enzymatic activity and soil organic matter cycling. With decreased elevation, soil microbial diversity increased and community composition shifted, from taxa associated with oligotrophic towards copiotrophic traits. A key role for temperature in shaping these patterns was demonstrated by a soil translocation experiment, where temperature-manipulation altered the relative abundance of specific taxa. Functional implications of these community composition shifts were indicated by changes in enzyme activities, the temperature sensitivity of bacterial and fungal growth rates, and the presence of temperature-adapted iso-enzymes at different elevations. Studies from a Peruvian elevation transect indicated that soil microbial communities are adapted to long-term (differences with elevation) and short-term (translocation responses) temperature changes. These findings indicate the potential for adaptation of soil microbes in tropical soils to future climate warming. However, in order to evaluate the sensitivity of these processes to climate warming in lowland forests, in situ experimentation is required. Finally, we describe SWELTR (Soil Warming Experiment in Lowland

Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests

Treesearch

M.A. Cavaleri; S.C. Reed; K.W. Smith; Tana Wood

2015-01-01

Although tropical forests account for only a fraction of the planet's terrestrial surface, they exchange more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other biome on Earth, and thus play a disproportionate role in the global climate. In the next 20 years, the tropics will experience unprecedented warming, yet there is exceedingly high uncertainty about their...

Paleoenvironments, Evolution, and Geomicrobiology in a Tropical Pacific Lake: The Lake Towuti Drilling Project (TOWUTI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, Hendrik; Russell, James M.; Bijaksana, Satria; Crowe, Sean; Fowle, David; Haffner, Douglas; King, John; Marwoto, Ristiyanti; Melles, Martin; von Rintelen, Thomas; Stevenson, Janelle; Watkinson, Ian; Wattrus, Nigel

2014-05-01

Lake Towuti (2.5°S, 121°E) is a, 560 km2, 200-m deep tectonic lake at the downstream end of the Malili lake system, a set of five, ancient (1-2 MYr) tectonic lakes in central Sulawesi, Indonesia. Lake Towuti's location in central Indonesia provides a unique opportunity to reconstruct long-term paleoclimate change in a crucially important yet understudied region- the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP), heart of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The Malili Lakes have extraordinarily high rates of floral and faunal endemism, and the lakes are surrounded by one of the most diverse tropical forests on Earth. Drilling in Lake Towuti will identify the age and origin of the lake and the environmental and climatic context that shaped the evolution of this unique lacustrine and terrestrial ecosystem. The ultramafic (ophiolitic) rocks and lateritic soils surrounding Lake Towuti provide metal substrates that feed a diverse, exotic microbial community, analogous to the microbial ecosystems that operated in the Archean Oceans. Drill core will provide unique insight into long-term changes in this ecosystem, as well as microbial processes operating at depth in the sediment column. High-resolution seismic reflection data (CHIRP and airgun) combined with numerous long sediment piston cores collected from 2007-2013 demonstrate the enormous promise of Lake Towuti for an ICDP drilling campaign. Well-stratified sequences of up to 150 m thickness, uninterrupted by unconformities or erosional truncation, are present in multiple sub-basins within Towuti, providing ideal sites for long-term environmental, climatic, and limnological reconstructions. Multiproxy analyses of our piston cores document a continuous and detailed record of moisture balance variations in Lake Towuti during the past 60 kyr BP. In detail our datasets show that wet conditions and rainforest ecosystems in central Indonesia persisted during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) and the Holocene, and were interrupted by severe

Tropical Pacific variability as a key pacemaker of the global warming staircase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosaka, Y.; Xie, S. P.

2016-12-01

Global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has increased since the 19th century with notable interdecadal accelerations and slowdowns, forming the global-warming "staircase". The last step of this staircase is the surface warming slowdown since the late 1990s, for which the transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) from a positive to negative state has been suggested as the leading mechanism. To examine the role of IPO in the entire warming staircase, a long pacemaker experiment is performed with a coupled climate model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution since the late 19th century. The pacemaker experiment successfully reproduces the staircase-like global warming remarkably well since 1900. Without the tropical Pacific effect, the same model produces a continual warming from the 1900s to the 1960 followed by rapid warming. The successful reproduction identifies the tropical Pacific decadal variability as a key pacemaker of the GMST staircase. We further propose a method to remove internal variability from observed GMST changes for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.

The Effect of Extratropical Warming Amplification on the Future Tropical Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshimori, M.; Hamano, Y.; Abe-Ouchi, A.

2016-12-01

The Arctic warms much more than the rest of the world under relatively uniform radiative forcing. Recent observations verify this characteristics of global warming. On the other hand, previous studies based on paleo-proxy data and paleo- and idealized numerical experiments have indicated that asymmetric warming between the two hemispheres can impact on the distribution of tropical precipitation. It was suggested diagnostically that the Arctic warming amplification may become responsible for a part of the future precipitation change in the tropics. In the current study, we have conducted several sensitivity experiments that isolate the effect of remote warming on the tropical precipitation using an atmospheric general circulation model with a mixture of prescribed and predicted mixed-layer sea surface conditions, depending of the region. Additional experiments including ocean dynamics will also be presented. In a standard equilibrium experiment of doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (2xCO2), the Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitude (40-90ºN) warms by about 7ºC and precipitation change occurs mostly in the tropical Pacific (20ºS-20ºN). In the zonal average, the increase in precipitation is larger in the North than the South by about 0.5 mm/day and the peak latitude of precipitation shifted northward by about 1º. Sensitivity experiments were designed to amplify or suppress the Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitude warming to different levels and to allow for the tropics to respond freely to those perturbations. The perturbations of the mid-high latitude warming range from -5ºC to +7ºC from the standard 2xCO2 experiment, and precipitation change range from -160% to +160% relative to the difference between 2xCO2 and control experiments. The peak latitude of precipitation shifted northward from -1.5º to +2.5º, and it was verified that most of the change is contributed by the change in the Hadley circulation, rather than the change in the moisture amount

Climate-induced warming of lakes can be either amplified or suppressed by trends in water clarity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rose, Kevin C.; Winslow, Luke A.; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.

2016-01-01

Climate change is rapidly warming aquatic ecosystems including lakes and reservoirs. However, variability in lake characteristics can modulate how lakes respond to climate. Water clarity is especially important both because it influences the depth range over which heat is absorbed, and because it is changing in many lakes. Here, we show that simulated long-term water clarity trends influence how both surface and bottom water temperatures of lakes and reservoirs respond to climate change. Clarity changes can either amplify or suppress climate-induced warming, depending on lake depth and the direction of clarity change. Using a process-based model to simulate 1894 north temperate lakes from 1979 to 2012, we show that a scenario of decreasing clarity at a conservative yet widely observed rate of 0.92% yr−1 warmed surface waters and cooled bottom waters at rates comparable in magnitude to climate-induced warming. For lakes deeper than 6.5 m, decreasing clarity was sufficient to fully offset the effects of climate-induced warming on median whole-lake mean temperatures. Conversely, a scenario increasing clarity at the same rate cooled surface waters and warmed bottom waters relative to baseline warming rates. Furthermore, in 43% of lakes, increasing clarity more than doubled baseline bottom temperature warming rates. Long-term empirical observations of water temperature in lakes with and without clarity trends support these simulation results. Together, these results demonstrate that water clarity trends may be as important as rising air temperatures in determining how waterbodies respond to climate change.

Water isotope tracers of tropical hydroclimate in a warming world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konecky, B. L.; Noone, D.; Nusbaumer, J. M.; Cobb, K. M.; Di Nezio, P. N.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.

2016-12-01

The tropical water cycle is projected to undergo substantial changes under a warming climate, but direct meteorological observations to contextualize these changes are rare prior to the 20th century. Stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios (δ18O, δD) of environmental waters preserved in geologic archives are increasingly being used to reconstruct terrestrial rainfall over many decades to millions of years. However, a rising number of new, modern-day observations and model simulations have challenged previous interpretations of these isotopic signatures. This presentation systematically evaluates the three main influences on the δ18O and δD of modern precipitation - rainfall amount, cloud type, and moisture transport - from terrestrial stations throughout the tropics, and uses this interpretive framework to understand past changes in terrestrial tropical rainfall. Results indicate that cloud type and moisture transport have a larger influence on modern δ18O and δD of tropical precipitation than previously believed, indicating that isotope records track changes in cloud characteristics and circulation that accompany warmer and cooler climate states. We use our framework to investigate isotopic records of the land-based tropical rain belt during the Last Glacial Maximum, the period of warming following the Little Ice Age, and the 21st century. Proxy and observational data are compared with water isotope-enabled simulations with the Community Earth System Model in order to discuss how global warming and cooling may influence tropical terrestrial hydroclimate.

High-elevation amplification of warming since the Last Glacial Maximum in East Africa: New perspectives from biomarker paleotemperature reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loomis, S. E.; Russell, J. M.; Kelly, M. A.; Eggermont, H.; Verschuren, D.

2013-12-01

Tropical lapse rate variability on glacial/interglacial time scales has been hotly debated since the publication of CLIMAP in 1976. Low-elevation paleotemperature reconstructions from the tropics have repeatedly shown less warming from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present than reconstructions from high elevations, leading to widespread difficulty in estimating the true LGM-present temperature change in the tropics. This debate is further complicated by the fact that most paleotemperature estimates from high elevations in the tropics are derived from pollen- and moraine-based reconstructions of altitudinal shifts in vegetation belts and glacial equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs). These traditional approaches rely on the assumption that lapse rates have remained constant through time. However, this assumption is problematic in the case of the LGM, when pervasive tropical aridity most likely led to substantial changes in lapse rates. Glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) can be used to reconstruct paleotemperatures independent of hydrological changes, making them the ideal proxy to reconstruct high elevation temperature change and assess lapse rate variability through time. Here we present two new equatorial paleotemperature records from high elevations in East Africa (Lake Rutundu, Mt. Kenya and Lake Mahoma, Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda) based on branched GDGTs. Our record from Lake Rutundu shows deglacial warming starting near 17 ka and a mid-Holocene thermal maximum near 5 ka. The overall amplitude of warming in the Lake Rutundu record is 6.8×1.0°C from the LGM to the present, with mid-Holocene temperatures 1.6×0.9°C warmer than modern. Our record from Lake Mahoma extends back to 7 ka and shows similar temperature trends to our record from Lake Rutundu, indicating similar temporal resolution of high-elevation temperature change throughout the region. Combining these new records with three previously published GDGT temperature records from different

Infrared heater system for warming tropical forest understory plants and soils.

PubMed

Kimball, Bruce A; Alonso-Rodríguez, Aura M; Cavaleri, Molly A; Reed, Sasha C; González, Grizelle; Wood, Tana E

2018-02-01

The response of tropical forests to global warming is one of the largest uncertainties in predicting the future carbon balance of Earth. To determine the likely effects of elevated temperatures on tropical forest understory plants and soils, as well as other ecosystems, an infrared (IR) heater system was developed to provide in situ warming for the Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. Three replicate heated 4-m-diameter plots were warmed to maintain a 4°C increase in understory vegetation compared to three unheated control plots, as sensed by IR thermometers. The equipment was larger than any used previously and was subjected to challenges different from those of many temperate ecosystem warming systems, including frequent power surges and outages, high humidity, heavy rains, hurricanes, saturated clayey soils, and steep slopes. The system was able to maintain the target 4.0°C increase in hourly average vegetation temperatures to within ± 0.1°C. The vegetation was heterogeneous and on a 21° slope, which decreased uniformity of the warming treatment on the plots; yet, the green leaves were fairly uniformly warmed, and there was little difference among 0-10 cm depth soil temperatures at the plot centers, edges, and midway between. Soil temperatures at the 40-50 cm depth increased about 3°C compared to the controls after a month of warming. As expected, the soil in the heated plots dried faster than that of the control plots, but the average soil moisture remained adequate for the plants. The TRACE heating system produced an adequately uniform warming precisely controlled down to at least 50-cm soil depth, thereby creating a treatment that allows for assessing mechanistic responses of tropical plants and soil to warming, with applicability to other ecosystems. No physical obstacles to scaling the approach to taller vegetation (i.e., trees) and larger plots were observed.

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change

PubMed Central

Roberts, James J.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans. PMID:28683083

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change.

PubMed

Roberts, James J; Fausch, Kurt D; Schmidt, Travis S; Walters, David M

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, James J.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Schmidt, Travis S.; Walters, David M.

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.

Diurnal sampling reveals significant variation in CO2 emission from a tropical productive lake.

PubMed

Reis, P C J; Barbosa, F A R

2014-08-01

It is well accepted in the literature that lakes are generally net heterotrophic and supersaturated with CO2 because they receive allochthonous carbon inputs. However, autotrophy and CO2 undersaturation may happen for at least part of the time, especially in productive lakes. Since diurnal scale is particularly important to tropical lakes dynamics, we evaluated diurnal changes in pCO2 and CO2 flux across the air-water interface in a tropical productive lake in southeastern Brazil (Lake Carioca) over two consecutive days. Both pCO2 and CO2 flux were significantly different between day (9:00 to 17:00) and night (21:00 to 5:00) confirming the importance of this scale for CO2 dynamics in tropical lakes. Net heterotrophy and CO2 outgassing from the lake were registered only at night, while significant CO2 emission did not happen during the day. Dissolved oxygen concentration and temperature trends over the diurnal cycle indicated the dependence of CO2 dynamics on lake metabolism (respiration and photosynthesis). This study indicates the importance of considering the diurnal scale when examining CO2 emissions from tropical lakes.

The Tropical Western Hemisphere Warm Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chunzai; Enfield, David B.

The Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) of water warmer than 28.5°C extends from the eastern North Pacific to the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, and at its peak, overlaps with the tropical North Atlantic. It has a large seasonal cycle and its interannual fluctuations of area and intensity are significant. Surface heat fluxes warm the WHWP through the boreal spring to an annual maximum of SST and areal extent in the late summer/early fall, associated with eastern North Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activities and rainfall from northern South America to the southern tier of the United States. SST and area anomalies occur at high temperatures where small changes can have a large impact on tropical convection. Observations suggest that a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback operating through longwave radiation and associated cloudiness is responsible for the WHWP SST anomalies. Associated with an increase in SST anomalies is a decrease in atmospheric sea level pressure anomalies and an anomalous increase in atmospheric convection and cloudiness. The increase in convective activity and cloudiness results in less longwave radiation loss from the surface, which then reinforces SST anomalies.

Model finds bigger, stronger tropical cyclones with warming seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Colin

2014-03-01

In the wake of powerful tropical cyclones such as Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina and Typhoon Haiyan, questions about the likely effect of climate change on tropical cyclone activity are on the public's mind. The interactions between global warming and cyclone activity, however, are complex, with rising sea surface temperatures, changing energy distributions, and altered atmospheric dynamics all having some effect.

Bioturbation enhances the aerobic respiration of lake sediments in warming lakes.

PubMed

Baranov, Viktor; Lewandowski, Jörg; Krause, Stefan

2016-08-01

While lakes occupy less than 2% of the total surface of the Earth, they play a substantial role in global biogeochemical cycles. For instance, shallow lakes are important sites of carbon metabolism. Aerobic respiration is one of the important drivers of the carbon metabolism in lakes. In this context, bioturbation impacts of benthic animals (biological reworking of sediment matrix and ventilation of the sediment) on sediment aerobic respiration have previously been underestimated. Biological activity is likely to change over the course of a year due to seasonal changes of water temperatures. This study uses microcosm experiments to investigate how the impact of bioturbation (by Diptera, Chironomidae larvae) on lake sediment respiration changes when temperatures increase. While at 5°C, respiration in sediments with and without chironomids did not differ, at 30°C sediment respiration in microcosms with 2000 chironomids per m(2) was 4.9 times higher than in uninhabited sediments. Our results indicate that lake water temperature increases could significantly enhance lake sediment respiration, which allows us to better understand seasonal changes in lake respiration and carbon metabolism as well as the potential impacts of global warming. © 2016 The Authors.

Bioturbation enhances the aerobic respiration of lake sediments in warming lakes

PubMed Central

Krause, Stefan

2016-01-01

While lakes occupy less than 2% of the total surface of the Earth, they play a substantial role in global biogeochemical cycles. For instance, shallow lakes are important sites of carbon metabolism. Aerobic respiration is one of the important drivers of the carbon metabolism in lakes. In this context, bioturbation impacts of benthic animals (biological reworking of sediment matrix and ventilation of the sediment) on sediment aerobic respiration have previously been underestimated. Biological activity is likely to change over the course of a year due to seasonal changes of water temperatures. This study uses microcosm experiments to investigate how the impact of bioturbation (by Diptera, Chironomidae larvae) on lake sediment respiration changes when temperatures increase. While at 5°C, respiration in sediments with and without chironomids did not differ, at 30°C sediment respiration in microcosms with 2000 chironomids per m2 was 4.9 times higher than in uninhabited sediments. Our results indicate that lake water temperature increases could significantly enhance lake sediment respiration, which allows us to better understand seasonal changes in lake respiration and carbon metabolism as well as the potential impacts of global warming. PMID:27484649

Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation at middle to low levels causes a reduction of high cloud cover due to the depletion of water available for ice-phase rain production. As a result, more isolated, but more intense penetrative convection develops. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale tends, implying a faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbance on daily to weekly time scales. The causes of the sensitivity of the dynamical regimes to the microphysics parameterization in the GCM will be discussed.

Frequency of Tropical Ocean Deep Convection and Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aumann, H. H.; Behrangi, A.; Ruzmaikin, A.

2017-12-01

The average of 36 CMIP5 models predicts about 3K of warming and a 4.7% increase in precipitation for the tropical oceans with a doubling of the CO2 by the end of this century. For this scenario we evaluate the increase in the frequency of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC) in the tropical oceans. We select only DCC which reach or penetrate the tropopause in the 15 km AIRS footprint. The evaluation is based on Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) of the current temperatures of the tropical oceans, those predicted by the mean of the CMIP5 models and the PDF of the DCC process. The PDF of the DCC process is derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) between the years 2003 and 2016. During this time the variability due Enso years provided a 1 K p-p change in the mean tropical SST. The key parameter is the SST associated with the onset of the DCC process. This parameter shifts only 0.5 K for each K of warming of the oceans. As a result the frequency of DCC is expected to increases by the end of this century by about 50% above the current frequency.

A warming tropical central Pacific dries the lower stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Qinghua; Fu, Qiang

2018-04-01

The amount of water vapor in the tropical lower stratosphere (TLS), which has an important influence on the radiative energy budget of the climate system, is modulated by the temperature variability of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). The TTL temperature variability is caused by a complex combination of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), tropospheric convective processes in the tropics, and the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) driven by mid-latitude and subtropical atmospheric waves. In 2000, the TLS water vapor amount exhibited a stepwise transition to a dry phase, apparently caused by a change in the BDC. In this study, we present observational and modeling evidence that the epochal change of water vapor between the periods of 1992-2000 and 2001-2005 was also partly caused by a concurrent sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the tropical central Pacific. This SST warming cools the TTL above by enhancing the equatorial wave-induced upward motion near the tropopause, which consequently reduces the amount of water vapor entering the stratosphere. The QBO affects the TLS water vapor primarily on inter-annual timescales, whereas a classical El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) event has small effect on tropical mean TLS water vapor because its responses are longitudinally out of phase. This study suggests that the tropical central Pacific SST is another driver of TLS water vapor variability on inter-decadal timescales and the tropical SST changes could contribute to about 30% of the step-wise drop of the lower stratospheric water vapor from 1992-2000 to 2001-2005.

Heterogeneous Sensitivity of Tropical Precipitation Extremes during Growth and Mature Phases of Atmospheric Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parhi, P.; Giannini, A.; Lall, U.; Gentine, P.

2016-12-01

Assessing and managing risks posed by climate variability and change is challenging in the tropics, from both a socio-economic and a scientific perspective. Most of the vulnerable countries with a limited climate adaptation capability are in the tropics. However, climate projections, particularly of extreme precipitation, are highly uncertain there. The CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter- comparison Project - Phase 5) inter-model range of extreme precipitation sensitivity to the global temperature under climate change is much larger in the tropics as compared to the extra-tropics. It ranges from nearly 0% to greater than 30% across models (O'Gorman 2012). The uncertainty is also large in historical gauge or satellite based observational records. These large uncertainties in the sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes highlight the need to better understand how tropical precipitation extremes respond to warming. We hypothesize that one of the factors explaining the large uncertainty is due to differing sensitivities during different phases of warming. We consider the `growth' and `mature' phases of warming under climate variability case- typically associated with an El Niño event. In the remote tropics (away from tropical Pacific Ocean), the response of the precipitation extremes during the two phases can be through different pathways: i) a direct and fast changing radiative forcing in an atmospheric column, acting top-down due to the tropospheric warming, and/or ii) an indirect effect via changes in surface temperatures, acting bottom-up through surface water and energy fluxes. We also speculate that the insights gained here might be useful in interpreting the large sensitivity under climate change scenarios, since the physical mechanisms during the two warming phases under climate variability case, have some correspondence with an increasing and stabilized green house gas emission scenarios.

New insights into deglacial climate variability in tropical South America from molecular fossil and isotopic indicators in Lake Titicaca

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanahan, T. M.; Hughen, K. A.; Fornace, K.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.

2010-12-01

As one of the main centers of tropical convection, the South American Altiplano plays a crucial role in the long-term climate variability of South America. However, both the timing and the drivers of climate variability on orbital to millennial timescales remain poorly understood for this region. New data from molecular fossil (e.g., TEX86) and compound specific hydrogen isotope (D/H) analyses provide new insights into the climate evolution of this region over the last ~50 kyr. TEX86 temperature reconstructions suggest that the Altiplano warmed as early as 19- 21 kyr ago and proceeded rapidly, consistent with published evidence for an early retreat of LGM glaciers at this time at some locations. The early warming signal observed at Lake Titicaca also appears to be synchronous with continental temperature reconstructions at some sites in tropical Africa, but leads tropical SST changes by several thousands of years. Although the initiation of warming coincided with the peak in southern hemisphere summer insolation, subsequent temperature increases were accompanied by decreases in southern hemisphere insolation, suggesting a northern hemisphere driver for temperature changes in tropical South America. Preliminary D/H ratios from leaf waxes appear to support existing data suggesting that wet conditions prevailed until the late glacial/early Holocene and are broadly consistent with local southern hemisphere summer insolation forcing of the summer monsoon. These data suggest that temperature and precipitation changes during the last deglaciation were decoupled and that both local and extratropical drivers are important for controlling climate change in this region on orbital timescales.

Regional patterns of the change in annual-mean tropical rainfall under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, P.

2013-12-01

Projection of the change in tropical rainfall under global warming is a major challenge with great societal implications. The current study analyzes the 18 models from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, and investigates the regional pattern of annual-mean rainfall change under global warming. With surface warming, the climatological ascending pumps up increased surface moisture and leads rainfall increase over the tropical convergence zone (wet-get-wetter effect), while the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) increase induces ascending flow and then increasing rainfall over the equatorial Pacific and the northern Indian Ocean where the local oceanic warming exceeds the tropical mean temperature increase (warmer-get-wetter effect). The background surface moisture and SST also can modify warmer-get-wetter effect: the former can influence the moisture change and contribute to the distribution of moist instability change, while the latter can suppress the role of instability change over the equatorial eastern Pacific due to the threshold effect of convection-SST relationship. The wet-get-wetter and modified warmer-get-wetter effects form a hook-like pattern of rainfall change over the tropical Pacific and an elliptic pattern over the northern Indian Ocean. The annual-mean rainfall pattern can be partly projected based on current rainfall climatology, while it also has great uncertainties due to the uncertain change in SST pattern.

Potentially Extreme Population Displacement and Concentration in the Tropics Under Non-Extreme Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiang, Solomon M.; Sobel, Adam H.

2016-06-01

Evidence increasingly suggests that as climate warms, some plant, animal, and human populations may move to preserve their environmental temperature. The distances they must travel to do this depends on how much cooler nearby surfaces temperatures are. Because large-scale atmospheric dynamics constrain surface temperatures to be nearly uniform near the equator, these displacements can grow to extreme distances in the tropics, even under relatively mild warming scenarios. Here we show that in order to preserve their annual mean temperatures, tropical populations would have to travel distances greater than 1000 km over less than a century if global mean temperature rises by 2 °C over the same period. The disproportionately rapid evacuation of the tropics under such a scenario would cause migrants to concentrate in tropical margins and the subtropics, where population densities would increase 300% or more. These results may have critical consequences for ecosystem and human wellbeing in tropical contexts where alternatives to geographic displacement are limited.

Tropical cyclogenesis in warm climates simulated by a cloud-system resolving model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedorov, Alexey V.; Muir, Les; Boos, William R.; Studholme, Joshua

2018-03-01

Here we investigate tropical cyclogenesis in warm climates, focusing on the effect of reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient relevant to past equable climates and, potentially, to future climate change. Using a cloud-system resolving model that explicitly represents moist convection, we conduct idealized experiments on a zonally periodic equatorial β-plane stretching from nearly pole-to-pole and covering roughly one-fifth of Earth's circumference. To improve the representation of tropical cyclogenesis and mean climate at a horizontal resolution that would otherwise be too coarse for a cloud-system resolving model (15 km), we use the hypohydrostatic rescaling of the equations of motion, also called reduced acceleration in the vertical. The simulations simultaneously represent the Hadley circulation and the intertropical convergence zone, baroclinic waves in mid-latitudes, and a realistic distribution of tropical cyclones (TCs), all without use of a convective parameterization. Using this model, we study the dependence of TCs on the meridional sea surface temperature gradient. When this gradient is significantly reduced, we find a substantial increase in the number of TCs, including a several-fold increase in the strongest storms of Saffir-Simpson categories 4 and 5. This increase occurs as the mid-latitudes become a new active region of TC formation and growth. When the climate warms we also see convergence between the physical properties and genesis locations of tropical and warm-core extra-tropical cyclones. While end-members of these types of storms remain very distinct, a large distribution of cyclones forming in the subtropics and mid-latitudes share properties of the two.

Global warming, elevational range shifts, and lowland biotic attrition in the wet tropics.

PubMed

Colwell, Robert K; Brehm, Gunnar; Cardelús, Catherine L; Gilman, Alex C; Longino, John T

2008-10-10

Many studies suggest that global warming is driving species ranges poleward and toward higher elevations at temperate latitudes, but evidence for range shifts is scarce for the tropics, where the shallow latitudinal temperature gradient makes upslope shifts more likely than poleward shifts. Based on new data for plants and insects on an elevational transect in Costa Rica, we assess the potential for lowland biotic attrition, range-shift gaps, and mountaintop extinctions under projected warming. We conclude that tropical lowland biotas may face a level of net lowland biotic attrition without parallel at higher latitudes (where range shifts may be compensated for by species from lower latitudes) and that a high proportion of tropical species soon faces gaps between current and projected elevational ranges.

Thermal acclimation of leaf respiration of tropical trees and lianas: response to experimental canopy warming, and consequences for tropical forest carbon balance.

PubMed

Slot, Martijn; Rey-Sánchez, Camilo; Gerber, Stefan; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Winter, Klaus; Kitajima, Kaoru

2014-09-01

Climate warming is expected to increase respiration rates of tropical forest trees and lianas, which may negatively affect the carbon balance of tropical forests. Thermal acclimation could mitigate the expected respiration increase, but the thermal acclimation potential of tropical forests remains largely unknown. In a tropical forest in Panama, we experimentally increased nighttime temperatures of upper canopy leaves of three tree and two liana species by on average 3 °C for 1 week, and quantified temperature responses of leaf dark respiration. Respiration at 25 °C (R25 ) decreased with increasing leaf temperature, but acclimation did not result in perfect homeostasis of respiration across temperatures. In contrast, Q10 of treatment and control leaves exhibited similarly high values (range 2.5-3.0) without evidence of acclimation. The decrease in R25 was not caused by respiratory substrate depletion, as warming did not reduce leaf carbohydrate concentration. To evaluate the wider implications of our experimental results, we simulated the carbon cycle of tropical latitudes (24°S-24°N) from 2000 to 2100 using a dynamic global vegetation model (LM3VN) modified to account for acclimation. Acclimation reduced the degree to which respiration increases with climate warming in the model relative to a no-acclimation scenario, leading to 21% greater increase in net primary productivity and 18% greater increase in biomass carbon storage over the 21st century. We conclude that leaf respiration of tropical forest plants can acclimate to nighttime warming, thereby reducing the magnitude of the positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The High Arctic's Only Great Lake Is Succumbing To Climate Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

St Louis, V. L.; Lehnherr, I.; Schiff, S. L.; Sharp, M. J.; Smol, J. P.; Muir, D.; Gardner, A. S.; Tarnocai, C.; St Pierre, K.; Michelutti, N.; Emmerton, C. A.; Mortimer, C.; Talbot, C.; Wiklund, J.

2016-12-01

Lake Hazen, located within Quttinirpaaq National Park on northern Ellesmere Island (Nunavut, Canada), is the largest lake by volume north of the Arctic Circle and the High Arctic's only true Great Lake. Lake Hazen has a maximum depth of 267 m, a surface area of 540 km2 and a 8400 km2 watershed that is 1/3 glaciated. The climate of the Lake Hazen watershed has experienced a recent strong warming trend of 0.21 °C yr-1 from 2000-2012. During this period, modeled glacier mass-balance values showed a distinct shift from net annual mass gain of 0.3 Gt to a net annual mass loss of up to 1.4 Gt beginning in 2007-2008. Recent warming of soils (0.14 oC yr-1) and deepening of the active layer in the Lake Hazen watershed have also occurred. Rising temperatures had important consequences for summer lake ice cover: the ice-free area on the lake increased by an average of 3 km2 yr-1 from 2000 to 2012, and full ice-off on Lake Hazen became more frequent, from 60% of the years between 1985-95 to 88% of the years between 2006-12. The 250 year sediment record obtained from the floor of Lake Hazen showed that, in the past 15 years, changes in diatom species % abundance, sedimentation rates, geological inputs from the catchment, the abundance of redox sensitive elements such as Fe and Mn in the sediments, and fluxes of organic carbon and contaminants are historically unprecedented and consistent with the observed trends of rising surface temperatures, increasing glacial melt and runoff, and decreasing summer lake ice cover. These changes have important implications for in-lake processes that pertain to ecosystem net productivity, and the cycling of carbon, nutrients and contaminants. We demonstrate that even more resilient ecosystems such as very large lakes are exhibiting regime shifts due to climate change and entering new ecological states.

What do we know about Indonesian tropical lakes? Insights from high frequency measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budi Santoso, Arianto; Triwisesa, Endra; Fakhrudin, Muh.; Harsono, Eko; Agita Rustini, Hadiid

2018-02-01

When measuring ecological variables in lakes, sampling frequency is critical in capturing an environmental pattern. Discrete sampling of traditional monitoring programs is likely to result in vital knowledge gaps in understanding any processes particularly those with fine temporal scale characteristics. The development of high frequency measurements offer a sophisticated range of information in recording any events in lakes at a finer time scale. We present physical indices of a tropical deep Lake Maninjau arrayed from OnLine Monitoring System (OLM). It is revealed that Lake Maninjau mostly has a diurnal thermal stratification pattern. The calculated lake stability (Schmidt stability), however, follows a seasonal pattern; low in December-January and around August, and high in May and September. Using a 3D numerical model simulation (ELCOM), we infer how wind and solar radiation intensity control lake’s temperature profiles. In this review, we highlight the needs of high frequency measurement establishment in Indonesian tropical lakes to better understand the unique processes and to support the authorities’ decision making in maximizing the provision of ecosystem services supplied by lakes and reservoirs.

Wet-to-dry shift over Southwest China in 1994 tied to the warming of tropical warm pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lin; Huang, Gang; Chen, Wen; Zhou, Wen; Wang, Weiqiang

2018-01-01

The autumn climate in Southwest China (SWC) experienced a notable wet-to-dry shift in 1994. Associated with this change in precipitation, decadal signatures of large-scale atmospheric circulation and SST identify a likely dynamical origin: the tropical warm pool (TWP) consisting of tropical northwest Pacific (TNWP, 3°S-12°N and 110°E-150°E) sector and tropical east Indian Ocean (TEI, 10°S-3°N and 80°E-110°E) sector. A cold-to-warm phase switch of TWP SST occurred in 1994, coinciding exactly with the timing of the regime transition of SWC precipitation. During post-1994 period, warm states in the TNWP and TEI sectors plays in a synergistic fashion to invoke dry decades in SWC. On the one side, warm SST over the TNWP sector excites an anomalous cyclone centered on the South China Sea directed opposite to the climatological moisture transport and strengthened zonal wind to its west accompanied by a weakening of the poleward flux; on the other side, warm SST over the TEI sector acts to intensify inflow into TEI with less concurrent transfer of moisture to SWC and to steer moisture to the northern Arabic Sea and away from the SWC-oriented track. Meanwhile, the troposphere over SWC is capped by subsidence, which is jointly contributed by TNWP and TEI. It then follows a reduced moisture supply, suppressed convective activity, and anomalous divergence in SWC, bringing a precipitation deficit there. In contrast, cold TWP SST during 1961-1994 favors wet conditions in SWC, given a perfectly symmetrical circulation pattern. Further, the dominant role of TWP is confirmed, because the modeled response to TWP SST forcing alone bears a great resemblance to the observed evidence. Finally, it is also found that the teleconnected influence induced by TWP is stronger in southern SWC than in northern SWC, which explains the south-north gradient of interdecadal signal of SWC precipitation.

Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming.

PubMed

Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P R; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A

2016-01-01

There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and - the notoriously unknown - physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

PubMed Central

Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P. R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

2016-01-01

There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25–35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390–800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10–20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change. PMID:27242814

Understanding tropical upper tropospheric warming: The role of SSTs, convective parameterizations, and observational uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Po-Chedley, S.; Thorsen, T. J.; Fu, Q.

2015-12-01

Recent research has compared CMIP5 general circulation model (GCM) simulations with satellite observations of warming in the tropical upper troposphere relative to the lower-middle troposphere. Although the pattern of SST warming is important, this research demonstrated that models overestimate increases in static stability between the mid- to upper- tropical troposphere, even when they are forced with historical sea surface temperatures. This discrepancy between satellite-borne microwave sounding unit measurements (MSU) and GCMs is important because it has implications for the strength of the lapse rate and water vapor feedback. The apparent model-observational difference for changes in static stability in the tropical upper troposphere represents an important problem, but it is not clear whether the difference is a result of common biases in GCMs, biases in observational datasets, or both. In this work, we will use GCM simulations to examine the importance of the spatial pattern of SST warming and different convective parameterizations in determining the lapse rate changes in tropical troposphere. We will also consider uncertainties in MSU satellite observations, including changes in the diurnal sampling of temperature and instrument calibration biases when comparing GCMs with the observed record.

Disentangling the effects of a century of eutrophication and climate warming on freshwater lake fish assemblages

PubMed Central

Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Bethke, Bethany J.; Cross, Timothy K.

2017-01-01

Eutrophication and climate warming are profoundly affecting fish in many freshwater lakes. Understanding the specific effects of these stressors is critical for development of effective adaptation and remediation strategies for conserving fish populations in a changing environment. Ecological niche models that incorporated the individual effects of nutrient concentration and climate were developed for 25 species of fish sampled in standard gillnet surveys from 1,577 Minnesota lakes. Lake phosphorus concentrations and climates were hindcasted to a pre-disturbance period of 1896–1925 using existing land use models and historical temperature data. Then historical fish assemblages were reconstructed using the ecological niche models. Substantial changes were noted when reconstructed fish assemblages were compared to those from the contemporary period (1981–2010). Disentangling the sometimes opposing, sometimes compounding, effects of eutrophication and climate warming was critical for understanding changes in fish assemblages. Reconstructed abundances of eutrophication-tolerant, warmwater taxa increased in prairie lakes that experienced significant eutrophication and climate warming. Eutrophication-intolerant, warmwater taxa abundance increased in forest lakes where primarily climate warming was the stressor. Coolwater fish declined in abundance in both ecoregions. Large changes in modeled abundance occurred when the effects of both climate and eutrophication operated in the same direction for some species. Conversely, the effects of climate warming and eutrophication operated in opposing directions for other species and dampened net changes in abundance. Quantifying the specific effects of climate and eutrophication will allow water resource managers to better understand how lakes have changed and provide expectations for sustainable fish assemblages in the future. PMID:28777816

The Morphometry of Lake Palmas, a Deep Natural Lake in Brazil

PubMed Central

Barroso, Gilberto F.; Gonçalves, Monica A.; Garcia, Fábio da C.

2014-01-01

Lake Palmas (A = 10.3km2) is located in the Lower Doce River Valley (LDRV), on the southeastern coast of Brazil. The Lake District of the LDRV includes 90 lakes, whose basic geomorphology is associated with the alluvial valleys of the Barreiras Formation (Cenozoic, Neogene) and with the Holocene coastal plain. This study aimed to investigate the relationship of morphometry and thermal pattern of a LDRV deep lake, Lake Palmas. A bathymetric survey carried out in 2011 and the analysis of hydrographic and wind data with a geographic information system allowed the calculation of several metrics of lake morphometry. The vertical profiling of physical and chemical variables in the water column during the wet/warm and dry/mild cold seasons of 2011 to 2013 has furnished a better understanding of the influence of the lake morphometry on its structure and function. The overdeepened basin has a subrectangular elongated shape and is aligned in a NW-SE direction in an alluvial valley with a maximum depth (Zmax) of 50.7m, a volume of 2.2×108 m3 (0.22km3) and a mean depth (Zmv) of 21.4m. These metrics suggest Lake Palmas as the deepest natural lake in Brazil. Water column profiling has indicated strong physical and chemical stratification during the wet/warm season, with a hypoxic/anoxic layer occupying one-half of the lake volume. The warm monomictic pattern of Lake Palmas, which is in an accordance to deep tropical lakes, is determined by water column mixing during the dry and mild cold season, especially under the influence of a high effective fetch associated with the incidence of cold fronts. Lake Palmas has a very long theoretical retention time, with a mean of 19.4 years. The changes observed in the hydrological flows of the tributary rivers may disturb the ecological resilience of Lake Palmas. PMID:25406062

The positive Indian Ocean Dipole-like response in the tropical Indian Ocean to global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

Climate models project a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD)-like SST response in the tropical Indian Ocean to global warming. By employing the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2), this study investigates the similarity and difference of the formation mechanisms for the changes in the tropical Indian Ocean during the pIOD versus global warming. Results show that their formation processes and related seasonality are quite similar; in particular, the Bjerknes feedback is the leading mechanism in producing the anomalous cooling over the eastern tropics in both cases.more » Some differences are also found, including that the cooling effect of the vertical advection over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean is dominated by the anomalous vertical velocity during the pIOD while it is dominated by the anomalous upper-ocean stratification under global warming. Lastly, these findings above are further examined with an analysis of the mixed layer heat budget.« less

The positive Indian Ocean Dipole-like response in the tropical Indian Ocean to global warming

DOE PAGES

Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai; ...

2016-02-04

Climate models project a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD)-like SST response in the tropical Indian Ocean to global warming. By employing the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2), this study investigates the similarity and difference of the formation mechanisms for the changes in the tropical Indian Ocean during the pIOD versus global warming. Results show that their formation processes and related seasonality are quite similar; in particular, the Bjerknes feedback is the leading mechanism in producing the anomalous cooling over the eastern tropics in both cases.more » Some differences are also found, including that the cooling effect of the vertical advection over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean is dominated by the anomalous vertical velocity during the pIOD while it is dominated by the anomalous upper-ocean stratification under global warming. Lastly, these findings above are further examined with an analysis of the mixed layer heat budget.« less

Relationships Between Global Warming and Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

In this work, we investigate the relationships between global warming and tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific (WNP). Our...hypothesis is that global warming impacts on TC activity occur through changes in the large scale environmental factors (LSEFs) known to be important in...averages. Using a least squares fit, we identify global warming signals in both the SST and vertical wind shear data across the WNP. These signals vary

Tropical Intraseasonal Air-Sea Exchanges during the 1997 Pacific Warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sui, C.-H.; Lau, K.-M.; Chou, S.-H.; Wang, Zihou

1999-01-01

The Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) and associated westerly wind (WW) events account for much of the tropical intraseasonal variability (TISV). The TISV has been suggested as an important stochastic forcing that may be one of the underlying causes for the observed irregularities of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Recent observational studies and theories of interannual to interdecadal-scale variability suggest that ENSO may arise from different mechanisms depending on the basic states. The Pacific warming event of 1997, being associated with a period of strong MJO and WW events, serves as a natural experiment for studying the possible role of TISV in triggering an ENSO event. We have performed a combined statistical and composite analysis of surface WW events based on the assimilated surface wind and sea level pressure for the period of 1980-1993, the SSM/I wind for the period of 1988-1997, and OLR. Results indicates that extratropical forcing contribute significantly to the evolution of MJO and establishment of WW events over the Pacific warm pool. Following the major WW events, there appeared an eastward extension of equatorial warm SST anomalies from the western Pacific warm pool. Such tropical-extratropical interaction is particularly clear in the winter of 96-97 that leads to the recent warming event in 1997/98. From the above discussion, our current study on this subject is based on the hypothesis that 1) there is an enhanced air-sea interaction associated with TISV and the northerly surges from the extratropics in the initial phase of the 97/98 warming event, and 2) the relevant mechanisms are functions of the basic state of the coupled system (in terms of SST distribution and atmospheric mean circulation) that varies at the interannual and interdecadal time scale. We are analyzing the space-time structure of the northerly surges, their association with air-sea fluxes and upper ocean responses during the period of September 1996 to June 1997. The

Effects of phosphorus and nitrogen additions on tropical soil microbial activity in the context of experimental warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foley, M.; Nottingham, A.; Turner, B. L.

2017-12-01

Soil warming is generally predicted to increase microbial mineralization rates and accelerate soil C losses which could establish a positive feedback to climatic warming. Tropical rain forests account for a third of global soil C, yet the responseto of tropical soil C a warming climate remains poorly understood. Despite predictions of soil C losses, decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) in tropical soils may be constrained by several factors including microbial nutrient deficiencies. We performed an incubation experiment in conjunction with an in-situ soil warming experiment in a lowland tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to measure microbial response to two key nutrient additions in shallow (0-10cm) and deep (50-100 cm) soils. We compared the response of lowland tropical soils to montane tropical soils, predicting that lowland soils would display the strongest response to phosphorus additions. Soils were treated with either carbon alone (C), nitrogen (CN), phosphorus (CP) or nitrogen and phosphorus combined (CNP). Carbon dioxide (CO2) production was measured by NaOH capture and titrimetric analysis for 10 days. Cumulative CO2 production in montane soils increased significantly with all additions, suggesting these soils are characterized by a general microbial nutrient deficiency. The cumulative amount of C respired in deep soils from the lowland site increased significantly with CP and CNP additions, suggesting that microbial processes in deep lowland tropical soils are phosphorus-limited. These results support the current understanding that lowland tropical forests are growing on highly weathered, phosphorus-deplete soils, and provide novel insight that deep tropical SOM may be stabilized by a lack of biologically-available phosphorus. Further, this data suggests tropical soil C losses under elevated temperature may be limited by a strong microbial phosphorus deficiency.

Understanding the tropical warm temperature bias simulated by climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio

2017-04-01

The state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models have difficulties in representing the observed spatial pattern of surface tempertaure. A majority of them suffers a warm bias in the tropical subsiding regions located over the eastern parts of oceans. These regions are usually covered by low-level clouds scattered from stratus along the coasts to more vertically developed shallow cumulus farther from them. Models usually fail to represent accurately this transition. Here we investigate physical drivers of this warm bias in CMIP5 models through a near-surface energy budget perspective. We show that overestimated solar insolation due to a lack of stratocumulus mostly explains the warm bias. This bias also arises partly from inter-model differences in surface fluxes that could be traced to differences in near-surface relative humidity and air-sea temperature gradient. We investigate the role of the atmosphere in driving surface biases by comparing historical and atmopsheric (AMIP) experiments. We show that some differences in boundary-layer characteristics, mostly those related to cloud fraction and relative humidity, are already present in AMIP experiments and may be the drivers of coupled biases. This gives insights in how models can be improved for better simulations of the tropical climate.

Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming.

PubMed

Walter, K M; Zimov, S A; Chanton, J P; Verbyla, D; Chapin, F S

2006-09-07

Large uncertainties in the budget of atmospheric methane, an important greenhouse gas, limit the accuracy of climate change projections. Thaw lakes in North Siberia are known to emit methane, but the magnitude of these emissions remains uncertain because most methane is released through ebullition (bubbling), which is spatially and temporally variable. Here we report a new method of measuring ebullition and use it to quantify methane emissions from two thaw lakes in North Siberia. We show that ebullition accounts for 95 per cent of methane emissions from these lakes, and that methane flux from thaw lakes in our study region may be five times higher than previously estimated. Extrapolation of these fluxes indicates that thaw lakes in North Siberia emit 3.8 teragrams of methane per year, which increases present estimates of methane emissions from northern wetlands (< 6-40 teragrams per year; refs 1, 2, 4-6) by between 10 and 63 per cent. We find that thawing permafrost along lake margins accounts for most of the methane released from the lakes, and estimate that an expansion of thaw lakes between 1974 and 2000, which was concurrent with regional warming, increased methane emissions in our study region by 58 per cent. Furthermore, the Pleistocene age (35,260-42,900 years) of methane emitted from hotspots along thawing lake margins indicates that this positive feedback to climate warming has led to the release of old carbon stocks previously stored in permafrost.

Clastic sediment flux to tropical Andean lakes: records of glaciation and soil erosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodbell, Donald T.; Seltzer, Geoffrey O.; Mark, Bryan G.; Smith, Jacqueline A.; Abbott, Mark B.

2008-08-01

We developed records of clastic sediment flux to 13 alpine lakes in Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia, and compared these with independently dated records of regional glaciation. Our objectives are to determine whether a strong relationship exists between the extent of ice cover in the region and the rate of clastic sediment delivery to alpine lakes, and thus whether clastic sediment records serve as reliable proxies for glaciation during the late Pleistocene. We isolated the clastic component in lake sediment cores by removing the majority of the biogenic and authigenic components from the bulk sediment record, and we dated cores by a combination of radiocarbon and tephrochronology. In order to partially account for intra-basin differences in sediment focusing, bedrock erosivity, and sediment availability, we normalized each record to the weighted mean value of clastic sediment flux for each respective core. This enabled the stacking of all 13 lake records to produce a composite record that is generally representative of the tropical Andes. There is a striking similarity between the composite record of clastic sediment flux and the distribution of ˜100 cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) exposure ages for erratics on moraine crests in the central Peruvian and northern Bolivian Andes. The extent of ice cover thus appears to be the primary variable controlling the delivery of clastic sediment to alpine lakes in the region, which bolsters the increasing use of clastic sediment flux as a proxy for the extent of ice cover in the region. The CRN moraine record and the stacked lake core composite record together indicate that the expansion of ice cover and concomitant increase in clastic sediment flux began at least 40 ka, and the local last glacial maximum (LLGM) culminated between 30 and 20 ka. A decline in clastic sediment flux that began ˜20 ka appears to mark the onset of deglaciation from the LLGM, at least one millennium prior to significant warming in high latitude regions

Synergy between nutrients and warming enhances methane ebullition from experimental lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, Thomas A.; Audet, Joachim; Jeppesen, Erik; Landkildehus, Frank; Lauridsen, Torben L.; Søndergaard, Martin; Syväranta, Jari

2018-01-01

Lakes and ponds are important natural sources of the potent greenhouse gas methane (CH4), with small shallow waters identified as particular hotspots1,2. Ebullition (bubbles) of CH4 makes up a large proportion of total CH4 flux3,4. However, difficulty measuring such episodic events5 makes prediction of how ebullition responds to nutrient enrichment and rising temperatures challenging. Here, the world's longest running, mesocosm-based, shallow lake climate change experiment was used to investigate how the combination of warming and eutrophication (that is, nutrient enrichment) affects CH4 ebullition. Eutrophication without heating increased the relative contribution of ebullition from 51% to 75%. More strikingly the combination of nutrient enrichment and experimental warming treatments of +2-3 °C and +4-5 °C had a synergistic effect, increasing mean annual ebullition by at least 1900 mg CH4-C m-2 yr-1. In contrast, diffusive flux showed no response to eutrophication and only a small increase at higher temperatures (average 63 mg CH4-C m-2 yr-1). As shallow lakes are the most common lake type globally, abundant in highly climate sensitive regions6 and most vulnerable to eutrophication, these results suggest their current and future contributions to atmospheric CH4 concentrations may be significantly underestimated.

Decadal-scale variation in diet forecasts persistently poor breeding under ocean warming in a tropical seabird

PubMed Central

Tompkins, Emily M.; Townsend, Howard M.

2017-01-01

Climate change effects on population dynamics of natural populations are well documented at higher latitudes, where relatively rapid warming illuminates cause-effect relationships, but not in the tropics and especially the marine tropics, where warming has been slow. Here we forecast the indirect effect of ocean warming on a top predator, Nazca boobies in the equatorial Galápagos Islands, where rising water temperature is expected to exceed the upper thermal tolerance of a key prey item in the future, severely reducing its availability within the boobies’ foraging envelope. From 1983 to 1997 boobies ate mostly sardines, a densely aggregated, highly nutritious food. From 1997 until the present, flying fish, a lower quality food, replaced sardines. Breeding success under the poor diet fell dramatically, causing the population growth rate to fall below 1, indicating a shrinking population. Population growth may not recover: rapid future warming is predicted around Galápagos, usually exceeding the upper lethal temperature and maximum spawning temperature of sardines within 100 years, displacing them permanently from the boobies’ island-constrained foraging range. This provides rare evidence of the effect of ocean warming on a tropical marine vertebrate. PMID:28832597

Decadal-scale variation in diet forecasts persistently poor breeding under ocean warming in a tropical seabird.

PubMed

Tompkins, Emily M; Townsend, Howard M; Anderson, David J

2017-01-01

Climate change effects on population dynamics of natural populations are well documented at higher latitudes, where relatively rapid warming illuminates cause-effect relationships, but not in the tropics and especially the marine tropics, where warming has been slow. Here we forecast the indirect effect of ocean warming on a top predator, Nazca boobies in the equatorial Galápagos Islands, where rising water temperature is expected to exceed the upper thermal tolerance of a key prey item in the future, severely reducing its availability within the boobies' foraging envelope. From 1983 to 1997 boobies ate mostly sardines, a densely aggregated, highly nutritious food. From 1997 until the present, flying fish, a lower quality food, replaced sardines. Breeding success under the poor diet fell dramatically, causing the population growth rate to fall below 1, indicating a shrinking population. Population growth may not recover: rapid future warming is predicted around Galápagos, usually exceeding the upper lethal temperature and maximum spawning temperature of sardines within 100 years, displacing them permanently from the boobies' island-constrained foraging range. This provides rare evidence of the effect of ocean warming on a tropical marine vertebrate.

Mercury in sediment, water, and fish in a managed tropical wetland-lake ecosystem.

PubMed

Malczyk, Evan A; Branfireun, Brian A

2015-08-15

Mercury pollution has not been well documented in the inland lakes or fishes of Mexico, despite the importance of freshwater fish as a source of protein in local diets. Total mercury and methylmercury in waters, sediments, and the commercial fish catch were investigated in Lake Zapotlán, Mexico. Concentrations of total and methylmercury were very high in runoff and wastewater inputs, but very low in sediments and surface waters of the open water area of the lake. Concentrations of total mercury in tilapia and carp were very low, consistent with the low concentrations in lake water and sediments. Particle settling, sorption, the biogeochemical environment, and/or bloom dilution are all plausible explanations for the significant reductions in both total mercury and methylmercury. Despite very high loading of mercury, this shallow tropical lake was not a mercury-impaired ecosystem, and these findings may translate across other shallow, alkaline tropical lakes. Importantly, the ecosystem services that seemed to be provided by peripheral wetlands in reducing mercury inputs highlight the potential for wetland conservation or restoration in Mexico. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Modeling methane emissions from Arctic lakes under warming conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Qianlai; Tan, Zeli

2014-05-01

To investigate the response of methane emissions from arctic lakes, a process-based climate-sensitive lake methane model is developed. The processes of methane production, oxidation and transport are modeled within a one-dimensional water and sediment column. Dynamics of point-source ebullition seeps are explicitly modeled. The model was calibrated and verified using observational data in the region. The model was further used to estimate the lake methane emissions from the Arctic from 2002 to 2004. We estimate that the total amount of methane emissions is 24.9 Tg CH4 yr-1, which is consistent with a recent estimation of 24±10 Tg CH4 yr-1 and two-fold of methane emissions from natural wetlands in the north of 60 oN. The methane emission rate of lakes spatially varies over high latitudes from 170.5 mg CH4 m-2 day-1 in northern Siberia to only 10.1 mg CH4 m-2 day-1 in northern Europe. A projection assuming 2-7.5oC warming and 15-25% expansion of lake coverage shows that the total amount of methane emitted from Arctic lakes will increase to 29.8-35.6 Tg CH4 yr-1.

How Dry is the Tropical Free Troposphere? Implications for Global Warming Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spencer, Roy W.; Braswell, William D.

1997-01-01

The humidity of the free troposphere is being increasingly scrutinized in climate research due to its central role in global warming theory through positive water vapor feedback. This feedback is the primary source of global warming in general circulation models (GCMs). Because the loss of infrared energy to space increases nonlinearly with decreases in relative humidity, the vast dry zones in the Tropics are of particular interest. These dry zones are nearly devoid of radiosonde stations, and most of those stations have, until recently, ignored the low humidity information from the sondes. This results in substantial uncertainty in GCM tuning and validation based on sonde data. While satellite infrared radiometers are now beginning to reveal some information about the aridity of the tropical free troposphere, the authors show that the latest microwave humidity sounder data suggests even drier conditions than have been previously reported. This underscores the importance of understanding how these low humidity levels are controlled in order to tune and validate GCMs, and to predict the magnitude of water vapor feedback and thus the magnitude of global warming.

Rapid warming of the world's lakes: Interdecadal variability and long-term trends from 1910-2009 using in situ and remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenters, J. D.; Read, J. S.; Sharma, S.; O'Reilly, C.; Hampton, S. E.; Gray, D.; McIntyre, P. B.; Hook, S. J.; Schneider, P.; Soylu, M. E.; Barabás, N.; Lofton, D. D.

2014-12-01

Global and regional changes in climate have important implications for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Recent studies, for example, have revealed significant warming of inland water bodies throughout the world. To better understand the global patterns, physical mechanisms, and ecological implications of lake warming, an initiative known as the "Global Lake Temperature Collaboration" (GLTC) was started in 2010, with the objective of compiling and analyzing lake temperature data from numerous satellite and in situ records dating back at least 20-30 years. The GLTC project has now assembled data from over 300 lakes, with some in situ records extending back more than 100 years. Here, we present an analysis of the long-term warming trends, interdecadal variability, and a direct comparison between in situ and remotely sensed lake surface temperature for the 3-month summer period July-September (January-March for some lakes). The overall results show consistent, long-term trends of increasing summer-mean lake surface temperature across most but not all sites. Lakes with especially long records show accelerated warming in the most recent two to three decades, with almost half of the lakes warming at rates in excess of 0.5 °C per decade during the period 1985-2009, and a few even exceeding 1.0 °C per decade. Both satellite and in situ data show a similar distribution of warming trends, and a direct comparison at lake sites that have both types of data reveals a close correspondence in mean summer water temperature, interannual variability, and long-term trends. Finally, we examine standardized lake surface temperature anomalies across the full 100-year period (1910-2009), and in conjunction with similar timeseries of air temperature. The results reveal a close correspondence between summer air temperature and lake surface temperature on interannual and interdecadal timescales, but with many lakes warming more rapidly than the ambient air temperature over 25- to 100

A preliminary study of the tropical water cycle and its sensitivity to surface warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Sui, C. H.; Tao, W. K.

1993-01-01

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCEM) has been used to demonstrate that cumulus-scale dynamics and microphysics play a major role in determining the vertical distribution of water vapor and clouds in the tropical atmosphere. The GCEM is described and is the basic structure of cumulus convection. The long-term equilibrium response to tropical convection to surface warming is examined. A picture of the water cycle within tropical cumulus clusters is developed.

Northern Galápagos Corals Reveal Twentieth Century Warming in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez, Gloria; Cole, Julia E.; Thompson, Diane M.; Tudhope, Alexander W.

2018-02-01

Models and observations disagree regarding sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the eastern tropical Pacific. We present a new Sr/Ca-SST record that spans 1940-2010 from two Wolf Island corals (northern Galápagos). Trend analysis of the Wolf record shows significant warming on multiple timescales, which is also present in several other records and gridded instrumental products. Together, these data sets suggest that most of the eastern tropical Pacific has warmed over the twentieth century. In contrast, recent decades have been characterized by warming during boreal spring and summer (especially north of the equator), and subtropical cooling during boreal fall and winter (especially south of the equator). These SST trends are consistent with the effects of radiative forcing, mitigated by cooling due to wind forcing during boreal winter, as well as intensified upwelling and a strengthened Equatorial Undercurrent.

Carbon dioxide dynamics in a lake and a reservoir on a tropical island (Bali, Indonesia).

PubMed

Macklin, Paul A; Suryaputra, I Gusti Ngurah Agung; Maher, Damien T; Santos, Isaac R

2018-01-01

Water-to-air carbon dioxide fluxes from tropical lakes and reservoirs (artificial lakes) may be an important but understudied component of global carbon fluxes. Here, we investigate the seasonal dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2) dynamics in a lake and a reservoir on a tropical volcanic island (Bali, Indonesia). Observations were performed over four seasonal surveys in Bali's largest natural lake (Lake Batur) and largest reservoir (Palasari Reservoir). Average CO2 partial pressures in the natural lake and reservoir were 263.7±12.2 μatm and 785.0±283.6 μatm respectively, with the highest area-weighted partial pressures in the wet season for both systems. The strong correlations between seasonal mean values of dissolved oxygen (DO) and pCO2 in the natural lake (r2 = 0.92) suggest that surface water metabolism was an important driver of CO2 dynamics in this deep system. Radon (222Rn, a natural groundwater discharge tracer) explained up to 77% of the variability in pCO2 in the shallow reservoir, suggesting that groundwater seepage was the major CO2 driver in the reservoir. Overall, the natural lake was a sink of atmospheric CO2 (average fluxes of -2.8 mmol m-2 d-1) while the reservoir was a source of CO2 to the atmosphere (average fluxes of 7.3 mmol m-2 d-1). Reservoirs are replacing river valleys and terrestrial ecosystems, particularly throughout developing tropical regions. While the net effect of this conversion on atmospheric CO2 fluxes remains to be resolved, we speculate that reservoir construction will partially offset the CO2 sink provided by deep, volcanic, natural lakes and terrestrial environments.

Constant diurnal temperature regime alters the impact of simulated climate warming on a tropical pseudoscorpion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeh, Jeanne A.; Bonilla, Melvin M.; Su, Eleanor J.; Padua, Michael V.; Anderson, Rachel V.; Zeh, David W.

2014-01-01

Recent theory suggests that global warming may be catastrophic for tropical ectotherms. Although most studies addressing temperature effects in ectotherms utilize constant temperatures, Jensen's inequality and thermal stress considerations predict that this approach will underestimate warming effects on species experiencing daily temperature fluctuations in nature. Here, we tested this prediction in a neotropical pseudoscorpion. Nymphs were reared in control and high-temperature treatments under a constant daily temperature regime, and results compared to a companion fluctuating-temperature study. At constant temperature, pseudoscorpions outperformed their fluctuating-temperature counterparts. Individuals were larger, developed faster, and males produced more sperm, and females more embryos. The greatest impact of temperature regime involved short-term, adult exposure, with constant temperature mitigating high-temperature effects on reproductive traits. Our findings demonstrate the importance of realistic temperature regimes in climate warming studies, and suggest that exploitation of microhabitats that dampen temperature oscillations may be critical in avoiding extinction as tropical climates warm.

Acute thermal tolerance of tropical estuarine fish occupying a man-made tidal lake, and increased exposure risk with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waltham, Nathan J.; Sheaves, Marcus

2017-09-01

Understanding acute hyperthermic exposure risk to animals, including fish in tropical estuaries, is increasingly necessary under future climate change. To examine this hypothesis, fish (upper water column species - glassfish, Ambassis vachellii; river mullet, Chelon subviridis; diamond scale mullet, Ellochelon vaigiensis; and ponyfish, Leiognathus equulus; and lower water bottom dwelling species - whiting Sillago analis) were caught in an artificial tidal lake in tropical north Queensland (Australia), and transported to a laboratory tank to acclimate (3wks). After acclimation, fish (between 10 and 17 individuals each time) were transferred to a temperature ramping experimental tank, where a thermoline increased (2.5 °C/hr; which is the average summer water temperature increasing rate measured in the urban lakes) tank water temperature to establish threshold points where each fish species lost equilibrium (defined here as Acute Effect Temperature; AET). The coolest AET among all species was 33.1 °C (S. analis), while the highest was 39.9 °C (A. vachellii). High frequency loggers were deployed (November and March representing Austral summer) in the same urban lake where fish were sourced, to measure continuous (20min) surface (0.15 m) and bottom (0.1 m) temperature to derive thermal frequency curves to examine how often lake temperatures exceed AET thresholds. For most fish species examined, water temperature that could be lethal were exceeded at the surface, but rarely, if ever, at the bottom waters suggesting deep, cooler, water provides thermal refugia for fish. An energy-balance model was used to estimate daily mean lake water temperature with good accuracy (±1 °C; R2 = 0.91, modelled vs lake measured temperature). The model was used to predict climate change effects on lake water temperature, and the exceedance of thermal threshold change. A 2.3 °C climate warming (based on 2100 local climate prediction) raised lake water temperature by 1.3 °C. However

Modelling the mid-Pliocene Warm Period with the IPSLGCM: contribution to PlioMIP and feedback mechanisms from the presence of mega-lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contoux, C.; Jost, A.; Sepulchre, P.; Ramstein, G.

2012-04-01

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, ca. 3.3 -3 Ma) is the last geological period showing a warmer climate than the preindustrial during a sustained period of time, much longer than interglacial periods of the last million years. Moreover, mPWP position of the continents and atmospheric pCO2 are very close to present-day, both conditions making the mPWP a relevant analogue for future global warming. For these reasons, the mPWP has been the focus of Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), which associates data analysis and modelling. We use the IPSLCM5 Earth System model and its atmospheric component alone (LMDZ), to simulate the climate of the mPWP. Boundary conditions such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), topography, ice sheet extent and vegetation are the ones used within the PlioMIP framework. On a global scale we show the impact of different boundary conditions with LMDZ, and of a global coupling on the simulated climate. Results from the Earth System model are also compared to SST reconstructions, particularly in the North Atlantic Ocean, where an important warming occurs, generally poorly reproduced by models. These results will then be part of the multi-model analysis for the Pliocene. The PlioMIP exercise is also about better understanding model/data mismatches. In the present-day desertic regions of Lake Chad (Africa) and Lake Eyre (Australia), vegetation data show the presence of tropical savanna at the expense of deserts during the mPWP. Vegetation models forced by mPWP climatic simulations fail to reproduce more humid vegetation in these locations. There might be a reason for this model/data discrepancy: geological data stand for the presence of mega-lakes in these two regions during the mPWP that are not accounted for in previous simulations. Such extended waterbodies could have important feedbacks on the hydrological cycle and regional climate. We use the LMDZ4 atmospheric model imbedding explicitly resolved lake surfaces to simulate

Ocean cleaning stations under a changing climate: biological responses of tropical and temperate fish-cleaner shrimp to global warming.

PubMed

Rosa, Rui; Lopes, Ana Rita; Pimentel, Marta; Faleiro, Filipa; Baptista, Miguel; Trübenbach, Katja; Narciso, Luis; Dionísio, Gisela; Pegado, Maria Rita; Repolho, Tiago; Calado, Ricardo; Diniz, Mário

2014-10-01

Cleaning symbioses play an important role in the health of certain coastal marine communities. These interspecific associations often occur at specific sites (cleaning stations) where a cleaner organism (commonly a fish or shrimp) removes ectoparasites/damaged tissue from a 'client' (a larger cooperating fish). At present, the potential impact of climate change on the fitness of cleaner organisms remains unknown. This study investigated the physiological and biochemical responses of tropical (Lysmata amboinensis) and temperate (L. seticaudata) cleaner shrimp to global warming. Specifically, thermal limits (CTMax), metabolic rates, thermal sensitivity, heat shock response (HSR), lipid peroxidation [malondialdehyde (MDA) concentration], lactate levels, antioxidant (GST, SOD and catalase) and digestive enzyme activities (trypsin and alkaline phosphatase) at current and warming (+3 °C) temperature conditions. In contrast to the temperate species, CTMax values decreased significantly from current (24-27 °C) to warming temperature conditions (30 °C) for the tropical shrimp, where metabolic thermal sensitivity was affected and the HSR was significantly reduced. MDA levels in tropical shrimp increased dramatically, indicating extreme cellular lipid peroxidation, which was not observed in the temperate shrimp. Lactate levels, GST and SOD activities were significantly enhanced within the muscle tissue of the tropical species. Digestive enzyme activities in the hepatopancreas of both species were significantly decreased by warmer temperatures. Our data suggest that the tropical cleaner shrimp will be more vulnerable to global warming than the temperate Lysmata seticaudata; the latter evolved in a relatively unstable environment with seasonal thermal variations that may have conferred greater adaptive plasticity. Thus, tropical cleaning symbioses may be challenged at a greater degree by warming-related anthropogenic forcing, with potential cascading effects on the health

Extent of Night Warming Differentiates the Temporal Trend of Tropical Greenness over 2001-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, M.; Gao, Q.; Gao, C.; Wang, C.

2016-12-01

Tropical forests have essential functions in global C dynamic but vulnerable to changes in land cover land use (LCLUC) and climate. The tropics of Caribbean are experiencing warming and drying climate and diverse LCLUC. However, large-scale studies to detect long-term trends of C and associated mechanisms are still rare. Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we investigated trend of greenness in the Greater Antilles Caribbean during 2000 - 2015 and further analyzed the trend of vegetation patches without LCLUC to separate the climate impacts. We hypothesized that rainfall decrease or/and warming would reduce EVI in this tropical region. All five countries showed significantly decreasing EVI except Cuba of which EVI was increasing partly due to strong reforestation. Haiti has the steepest decreasing EVI due to its deforestation for charcoals. EVI trend varied greatly even for patches without LCLUC, tending to decrease in the windward but increase in the leeward of the island Puerto Rico. Contrary to our intuition, the rainfall was mostly increasing. However the rising night temperature significantly and negatively correlates with the spatial pattern of EVI trends. Although the cooled daytime and increased rainfall might enhance EVI, night warming dominated the climate impacts and differentiated the EVI trend.

Management of Philippine tropical forests: Implications to global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lasco, R.D.

1997-12-31

The first part of the paper presents the massive changes in tropical land management in the Philippines as a result of a {open_quotes}paradigm shift{close_quotes} in forestry. The second part of the paper analyzes the impacts of the above management strategies on global warming, in general, preserved forests are neither sinks not sources of greenhouse gasses (GHG). Reforestation activities are primarily net sinks of carbon specially the use of fast growing reforestation species. Estimates are given for the carbon-sequestering ability of some commonly used species. The last part of the paper policy recommendations and possible courses of action by the governmentmore » to maximize the role of forest lands in the mitigation of global warming. Private sector initiatives are also explored.« less

Exceptional summer warming leads to contrasting outcomes for methane cycling in small Arctic lakes of Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cadieux, Sarah B.; White, Jeffrey R.; Pratt, Lisa M.

2017-02-01

In thermally stratified lakes, the greatest annual methane emissions typically occur during thermal overturn events. In July of 2012, Greenland experienced significant warming that resulted in substantial melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and enhanced runoff events. This unusual climate phenomenon provided an opportunity to examine the effects of short-term natural heating on lake thermal structure and methane dynamics and compare these observations with those from the following year, when temperatures were normal. Here, we focus on methane concentrations within the water column of five adjacent small lakes on the ice-free margin of southwestern Greenland under open-water and ice-covered conditions from 2012-2014. Enhanced warming of the epilimnion in the lakes under open-water conditions in 2012 led to strong thermal stability and the development of anoxic hypolimnia in each of the lakes. As a result, during open-water conditions, mean dissolved methane concentrations in the water column were significantly (p < 0.0001) greater in 2012 than in 2013. In all of the lakes, mean methane concentrations under ice-covered conditions were significantly (p < 0.0001) greater than under open-water conditions, suggesting spring overturn is currently the largest annual methane flux to the atmosphere. As the climate continues to warm, shorter ice cover durations are expected, which may reduce the winter inventory of methane and lead to a decrease in total methane flux during ice melt. Under open-water conditions, greater heat income and warming of lake surface waters will lead to increased thermal stratification and hypolimnetic anoxia, which will consequently result in increased water column inventories of methane. This stored methane will be susceptible to emissions during fall overturn, which may result in a shift in greatest annual efflux of methane from spring melt to fall overturn. The results of this study suggest that interannual variation in ground-level air

Impact of Ocean Warming on Tropical Cyclone Size and Its Destructiveness.

PubMed

Sun, Yuan; Zhong, Zhong; Li, Tim; Yi, Lan; Hu, Yijia; Wan, Hongchao; Chen, Haishan; Liao, Qianfeng; Ma, Chen; Li, Qihua

2017-08-15

The response of tropical cyclone (TC) destructive potential to global warming is an open issue. A number of previous studies have ignored the effect of TC size change in the context of global warming, which resulted in a significant underestimation of the TC destructive potential. The lack of reliable and consistent historical data on TC size limits the confident estimation of the linkage between the observed trend in TC size and that in sea surface temperature (SST) under the background of global climate warming. A regional atmospheric model is used in the present study to investigate the response of TC size and TC destructive potential to increases in SST. The results show that a large-scale ocean warming can lead to not only TC intensification but also TC expansion. The TC size increase in response to the ocean warming is possibly attributed to the increase in atmospheric convective instability in the TC outer region below the middle troposphere, which facilitates the local development of grid-scale ascending motion, low-level convergence and the acceleration of tangential winds. The numerical results indicate that TCs will become stronger, larger, and unexpectedly more destructive under global warming.

Assessing the El Niño/Southern Oscillation proxy potential of the sediment record from Genovesa Crater Lake, Galápagos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conroy, J.; Overpeck, J. T.; Cole, J. E.; Collins, A.; Bush, M. B.; Steinitz-Kannan, M.

2009-12-01

Paleoclimate records from the tropical Pacific Ocean suggest significant changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability during the Holocene, but there are still many spatial and temporal gaps in our understanding of past tropical Pacific climate change. Many of the annually-resolved records of past ENSO variability are short, discontinuous, or from outside the tropical Pacific, whereas those records from the tropical Pacific often do not have the temporal resolution to accurately resolve the timing of individual El Niño events. Paleoclimate records from the Galápagos Islands are ideal for reconstructing past changes in tropical Pacific climate variability, since these islands are located in the heart of the ENSO phenomenon. Records from other lakes in the Galápagos have already suggested significant changes in ENSO frequency and the mean state of the eastern tropical Pacific throughout the Holocene. However, these lake sediment records have interannual temporal resolution at best, hampering our understanding of past ENSO dynamics. Here we present our initial findings from an additional Galápagos lake: Genovesa Crater Lake. The Genovesa sediment record is finely laminated and will likely provide a high-resolution paleoclimate record for this region of the tropical Pacific, as well as a means to test the hypotheses proposed by other ENSO reconstructions. Scanning μ-XRF time series of elemental abundances in the Genovesa sediment cores indicate that peaks in Ca abundance reflect the warm/wet season and El Niño events. We hypothesize that during warm/wet periods, a reduced sea bird population around the typically guanotropic Genovesa Crater Lake reduces the guano input into the lake, allowing layers of relatively clean carbonate to precipitate. During the cool season and La Niña events, guano input dilutes the precipitated carbonate. High-resolution pollen and diatom analyses will provide additional constraints on

Upper temperature limits of tropical marine ectotherms: global warming implications.

PubMed

Nguyen, Khanh Dung T; Morley, Simon A; Lai, Chien-Houng; Clark, Melody S; Tan, Koh Siang; Bates, Amanda E; Peck, Lloyd S

2011-01-01

Animal physiology, ecology and evolution are affected by temperature and it is expected that community structure will be strongly influenced by global warming. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where organisms are already living close to their upper temperature limits and hence are highly vulnerable to rising temperature. Here we present data on upper temperature limits of 34 tropical marine ectotherm species from seven phyla living in intertidal and subtidal habitats. Short term thermal tolerances and vertical distributions were correlated, i.e., upper shore animals have higher thermal tolerance than lower shore and subtidal animals; however, animals, despite their respective tidal height, were susceptible to the same temperature in the long term. When temperatures were raised by 1°C hour(-1), the upper lethal temperature range of intertidal ectotherms was 41-52°C, but this range was narrower and reduced to 37-41°C in subtidal animals. The rate of temperature change, however, affected intertidal and subtidal animals differently. In chronic heating experiments when temperature was raised weekly or monthly instead of every hour, upper temperature limits of subtidal species decreased from 40°C to 35.4°C, while the decrease was more than 10°C in high shore organisms. Hence in the long term, activity and survival of tropical marine organisms could be compromised just 2-3°C above present seawater temperatures. Differences between animals from environments that experience different levels of temperature variability suggest that the physiological mechanisms underlying thermal sensitivity may vary at different rates of warming.

Global warming hiatus contributed to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia.

PubMed

Zhao, Jiuwei; Zhan, Ruifen; Wang, Yuqing

2018-04-16

The recent global warming hiatus (GWH) was characterized by a La Niña-like cooling in the tropical Eastern Pacific accompanied with the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming. Here we show that the recent GWH contributed significantly to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia since 1998. The GWH associated sea surface temperature anomalies triggered a pair of anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulations and equatorial easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which favored TC genesis and intensification over the western Northwest Pacific but suppressed TC genesis and intensification over the southeastern Northwest Pacific due to increased vertical wind shear and anticyclonic circulation anomalies. Results from atmospheric general circulation model experiments demonstrate that the Pacific La Niña-like cooling dominated the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming in contributing to the observed GWH-related anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Northwest Pacific.

Warm tropical ocean surface and global anoxia during the mid-Cretaceous period.

PubMed

Wilson, P A; Norris, R D

2001-07-26

The middle of the Cretaceous period (about 120 to 80 Myr ago) was a time of unusually warm polar temperatures, repeated reef-drowning in the tropics and a series of oceanic anoxic events (OAEs) that promoted both the widespread deposition of organic-carbon-rich marine sediments and high biological turnover. The cause of the warm temperatures is unproven but widely attributed to high levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. In contrast, there is no consensus on the climatic causes and effects of the OAEs, with both high biological productivity and ocean 'stagnation' being invoked as the cause of ocean anoxia. Here we show, using stable isotope records from multiple species of well-preserved foraminifera, that the thermal structure of surface waters in the western tropical Atlantic Ocean underwent pronounced variability about 100 Myr ago, with maximum sea surface temperatures 3-5 degrees C warmer than today. This variability culminated in a collapse of upper-ocean stratification during OAE-1d (the 'Breistroffer' event), a globally significant period of organic-carbon burial that we show to have fundamental, stratigraphically valuable, geochemical similarities to the main OAEs of the Mesozoic era. Our records are consistent with greenhouse forcing being responsible for the warm temperatures, but are inconsistent both with explanations for OAEs based on ocean stagnation, and with the traditional view (reviewed in ref. 12) that past warm periods were more stable than today's climate.

Emergent Macrophytes Support Zooplankton in a Shallow Tropical Lake: A Basis for Wetland Conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebrehiwot, Mesfin; Kifle, Demeke; Triest, Ludwig

2017-12-01

Understanding the biodiversity value of littoral zones of lakes is a priority for aquatic biodiversity conservation. However, less emphasis has been given to the littoral part of tropical African lakes, with many of the previous researches focusing only on the open water side. The aim of the present study was, therefore, to investigate the impact of the littoral zone of a shallow freshwater tropical lake (Ziway, Ethiopia), dominated by two emergent macrophytes, on zooplankton community structure. We hypothesized that the wetland vegetation serves as a preferred microhabitat for zooplankton communities. A lake with substantial coverage of emergent macrophytes was monitored monthly from January to August, 2016. The monitoring included the measurements of physical, chemical, and biological parameters. Sampling sites were selected to represent areas of the macrophyte vegetation ( Typha latifolia and Phragmites australis) and the open water part of the lake. Sites with macrophyte vegetation were found to be the home of more dense and diverse zooplankton community. However, during the period of high vegetation loss, the density of crustacean zooplankton showed significant reduction within the patches of macrophytes. From biodiversity conservation perspective, it was concluded that the preservation of such small areas of macrophytes covering the littoral zone of lakes could be as important as protecting the whole lake. However, the rapid degradation of wetland vegetation by human activities is a real threat to the lake ecosystem. In the not-too-far future, it could displace and evict riparian vegetation and the biota it supports.

Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GOES GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Warm Rain Processes over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GEOS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Effects of simulated warming on soil respiration to XiaoPo lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Shuangkai; Chen, Kelong; Wu, Chengyong; Mao, Yahui

2018-02-01

The main flux of carbon cycling in terrestrial and atmospheric ecosystems is soil respiration, and soil respiration is one of the main ways of soil carbon output. This is of great significance to explore the dynamic changes of soil respiration rate and its effect on temperature rise, and the correlation between environmental factors and soil respiration. In this study, we used the open soil carbon flux measurement system (LI-8100, LI-COR, NE) in the experimental area of the XiaoPo Lake wetland in the Qinghai Lake Basin, and the Kobresia (Rs) were measured, and the soil respiration was simulated by simulated temperature (OTC) and natural state. The results showed that the temperature of 5 cm soil was 1.37 °C higher than that of the control during the experiment, and the effect of warming was obvious. The respiration rate of soil under warming and natural conditions showed obvious diurnal variation and monthly variation. The effect of warming on soil respiration rate was promoted and the effect of precipitation on soil respiration rate was inhibited. Further studies have shown that the relationship between soil respiration and 5 cm soil temperature under the control and warming treatments can be described by the exponential equation, and the correlation analysis between the two plots shows a very significant exponential relationship (p < 0.001). The warming treatment not only increased the Q10 value of soil respiration rate, but also increased the sensitivity of soil respiration rate. The relationship between soil respiration and soil moisture can be explained by the quadratic linear equation (p < 0.05). It can be concluded that under the condition of sufficient rainfall, the soil temperature is the main influencing factor of soil respiration in this region.

Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winslow, Luke; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Rose, Kevin C.; Robertson, Dale M.

2017-01-01

Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr−1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr−1). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr−1), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr−1 to 0.035°C yr−1, SD: 0.034°C yr−1). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.

Inverse relationship between present-day tropical precipitation and its sensitivity to greenhouse warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong; Choi, Jun-Young; Jin, Fei-Fei; Watanabe, Masahiro

2018-01-01

Future changes in rainfall have serious impacts on human adaptation to climate change, but quantification of these changes is subject to large uncertainties in climate model projections. To narrow these uncertainties, significant efforts have been made to understand the intermodel differences in future rainfall changes. Here, we show a strong inverse relationship between present-day precipitation and its future change to possibly calibrate future precipitation change by removing the present-day bias in climate models. The results of the models with less tropical (40° S-40° N) present-day precipitation are closely linked to the dryness over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, and project weaker regional precipitation increase due to the anthropogenic greenhouse forcing1-6 with stronger zonal Walker circulation. This induces Indo-western Pacific warming through Bjerknes feedback, which reduces relative humidity by the enhanced atmospheric boundary-layer mixing in the future projection. This increases the air-sea humidity difference to enhance tropical evaporation and the resultant precipitation. Our estimation of the sensitivity of the tropical precipitation per 1 K warming, after removing a common bias in the present-day simulation, is about 50% greater than the original future multi-model projection.

Elevational ranges of birds on a tropical montane gradient lag behind warming temperatures.

PubMed

Forero-Medina, German; Terborgh, John; Socolar, S Jacob; Pimm, Stuart L

2011-01-01

Species may respond to a warming climate by moving to higher latitudes or elevations. Shifts in geographic ranges are common responses in temperate regions. For the tropics, latitudinal temperature gradients are shallow; the only escape for species may be to move to higher elevations. There are few data to suggest that they do. Yet, the greatest loss of species from climate disruption may be for tropical montane species. We repeat a historical transect in Peru and find an average upward shift of 49 m for 55 bird species over a 41 year interval. This shift is significantly upward, but also significantly smaller than the 152 m one expects from warming in the region. To estimate the expected shift in elevation we first determined the magnitude of warming in the locality from historical data. Then we used the temperature lapse rate to infer the required shift in altitude to compensate for warming. The range shifts in elevation were similar across different trophic guilds. Endothermy may provide birds with some flexibility to temperature changes and allow them to move less than expected. Instead of being directly dependent on temperature, birds may be responding to gradual changes in the nature of the habitat or availability of food resources, and presence of competitors. If so, this has important implications for estimates of mountaintop extinctions from climate change.

Primary production in a tropical large lake: the role of phytoplankton composition.

PubMed

Darchambeau, F; Sarmento, H; Descy, J-P

2014-03-01

Phytoplankton biomass and primary production in tropical large lakes vary at different time scales, from seasons to centuries. We provide a dataset made of 7 consecutive years of phytoplankton biomass and production in Lake Kivu (Eastern Africa). From 2002 to 2008, bi-weekly samplings were performed in a pelagic site in order to quantify phytoplankton composition and biomass, using marker pigments determined by HPLC. Primary production rates were estimated by 96 in situ (14)C incubations. A principal component analysis showed that the main environmental gradient was linked to a seasonal variation of the phytoplankton assemblage, with a clear separation between diatoms during the dry season and cyanobacteria during the rainy season. A rather wide range of the maximum specific photosynthetic rate (PBm) was found, ranging between 1.15 and 7.21 g carbong(-1)chlorophyll ah(-1), and was best predicted by a regression model using phytoplankton composition as an explanatory variable. The irradiance at the onset of light saturation (Ik) ranged between 91 and 752 μE m(-2)s(-1) and was linearly correlated with the mean irradiance in the mixed layer. The inter-annual variability of phytoplankton biomass and production was high, ranging from 53 to 100 mg chlorophyll am(-2) (annual mean) and from 143 to 278 g carbon m(-2)y(-1), respectively. The degree of seasonal mixing determined annual production, demonstrating the sensitivity of tropical lakes to climate variability. A review of primary production of other African great lakes allows situating Lake Kivu productivity in the same range as that of lakes Tanganyika and Malawi, even if mean phytoplankton biomass was higher in Lake Kivu. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rock magnetic and geochemical proxies for iron mineral diagenesis in a tropical lake: Lago Verde, Los Tuxtlas, East Central Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega, Beatriz; Caballero, Margarita; Lozano, Socorro; Vilaclara, Gloria; Rodríguez, Alejandro

2006-10-01

Magnetic and non-magnetic mineral analyses were conducted on a lacustrine sequence from Lago Verde in the tropical coast along the Gulf of Mexico that covers the last 2000 years. The site witnessed the transformation of the environment since the early Olmec societies until forest clearance in the last century. Through these analyses we investigated the processes that affected the magnetic mineralogy in order to construct a model of past environmental changes, and compare this model with the archeological record and inferred climatic changes in the northern hemisphere of tropical America. Volcanic activity has played a major influence on sediment magnetic properties, as a purveyor of Ti-magnetites/Ti-maghemites, and as a factor of instability in the environment. Anoxic reductive conditions are evident in most of Lago Verde's sedimentary record. Direct observations of magnetic minerals and ratios of geochemical (Fe, Ti), and ferrimagnetic ( χf) and paramagnetic ( χp) susceptibility ( χ) data, are used as parameters for magnetite dissolution ( χp/ χ, Fe/ χf), and precipitation ( χf/Ti) of magnetic minerals. Intense volcanic activity and anoxia are recorded before A.D. 20, leading to the formation of framboidal pyrite. Increased erosion, higher evaporation rates, lower lake levels, anoxia and reductive diagenesis in non-sulphidic conditions are inferred for laminated sediments between A.D. 20-850. This deposit matches the period of historical crisis and multiyear droughts that contributed to the collapse of the Maya civilization. Dissolution of magnetite, a high organic content and framboidal pyrite point to anoxic, sulphidic conditions and higher lake levels after A.D. 850. Higher lake levels in Lago Verde broadly coincide with the increased precipitation documented during the Medieval Warm Period (A.D. 950-1350) in the northern tropical and subtropical regions of the American continent. For the Little Ice Age (A.D. 1400-1800), the relatively moist conditions

Climate-mediated nitrogen and carbon dynamics in a tropical watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballantyne, A. P.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Poulter, B.

2011-06-01

Climate variability affects the capacity of the biosphere to assimilate and store important elements, such as nitrogen and carbon. Here we present biogeochemical evidence from the sediments of tropical Lake Titicaca indicating that large hydrologic changes in response to global glacial cycles during the Quaternary were accompanied by major shifts in ecosystem state. During prolonged glacial intervals, lake level was high and the lake was in a stable nitrogen-limited state. In contrast, during warm dry interglacials lake level fell and rates of nitrogen concentrations increased by a factor of 4-12, resulting in a fivefold to 24-fold increase in organic carbon concentrations in the sediments due to increased primary productivity. Observed periods of increased primary productivity were also associated with an apparent increase in denitrification. However, the net accumulation of nitrogen during interglacial intervals indicates that increased nitrogen supply exceeded nitrogen losses due to denitrification, thereby causing increases in primary productivity. Although primary productivity in tropical ecosystems, especially freshwater ecosystems, tends to be nitrogen limited, our results indicate that climate variability may lead to changes in nitrogen availability and thus changes in primary productivity. Therefore some tropical ecosystems may shift between a stable state of nitrogen limitation and a stable state of nitrogen saturation in response to varying climatic conditions.

Five thousand years of tropical lake sediment DNA records from Benin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bremond, L.; Favier, C.; Ficetola, G. F.; Tossou, M. G.; Akouégninou, A.; Gielly, L.; Giguet-Covex, C.; Oslisly, R.; Salzmann, U.

2017-08-01

Until now, sedimentary DNA (sedDNA) studies have only focused on cold and temperate regions were DNA is relatively well preserved. Consequently, the tropics, where vegetation is hyperdiverse and natural archives are rare, have been neglected and deserve attention. In this study, we used next-generation sequencing to barcode sedDNA from Lake Sele, localized in the tropical lowlands of Benin (Africa), and compared the taxonomic diversity detected by DNA analyses with pollen assemblages. Plant sedDNA was successfully amplified from 33 of the 34 successfully extracted samples. In total, 43 taxa were identified along the 5000 years spanned by the sediment: 22 taxa were identified at the family level and 21 at the genus level. The plant diversity recovered through sedDNA from Lake Sele showed a specific local signal and limited overlapping with pollen. Introduced plants, grown and cultivated close to the water, such as sweet potato, were also well recorded by sedDNA. It appears, therefore, to be a promising approach to studying past diversity in tropical regions, and could help in tracking the introduction and history of agriculture. This is the first time this method has been used in the field of domestication and dissemination of several specific crops, and the results are very encouraging.

Hydrologic Variability During the Last 10,000 Years in the Tropical Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seltzer, G.; Rodbell, D.; Burns, S.; Edwards, R.; Chen, H.

2003-12-01

The apparent increase in frequency of strong El Niño events in the mid Holocene as recorded around the tropical Pacific (e.g., Moy et al., 2002, Nature) has prompted the search for additional records to help identify the mechanism(s) behind tropical climatic variability on interannual and longer time scales. Lake Junin is a large lake (300 km2) in the Peruvian Andes (11° S, 4100 masl) that has rapidly accumulated authigenic carbonate over the last 10,000 years. A 14C and U/Th dated time series of δ 18Ocalcite with an average sample spacing of ˜30 years shows up to +/-2‰ (VPDB) deviations from an overall decreasing trend. The δ 18O of source precipitation to the region, as recorded in the Nevado Huascaran (9° S) and Nevado Sajama (18° S) ice-cores, reveals no decadal-centennial changes over the same time period and a long-term Holocene trend of <3‰ (VSMOW). It is likely that large changes in the hydrologic balance (precipitation minus evaporation) of Lake Junin led to relatively rapid and large changes in δ 18Ocalcite . The hydrologic changes at Lake Junin can be correlated with El Niño events recorded in lake sediments in southern Ecuador, lake level records from Lake Titicaca, and the amount of ice-rafted debris in North Atlantic sediments. The variability in precipitation in the tropical Andes is likely a result of the interplay between air masses that deliver moisture to the Andes from the east and the upper tropospheric westerlies that are impacted by sea-surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific(Vuille et al., 2000, JGR). Climatic conditions are generally drier in the tropical Andes during intervals marked by an increased frequency in El Niño Southern Oscillation warm events and cooler North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures.

The influence of the Great Lakes on MCS formation and development in the warm season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srock, Alan F.

This study focuses on how near-surface thermal boundaries that form near the Great Lakes during the warm season can contribute to the formation of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Differential heating across land-water interfaces can create a cold dome of air over the lake; convection may develop when the relatively-cold dome of air becomes deep enough to enable air parcels that intersect these boundaries to reach their level of free convection. A radar-based climatology of MCS events surrounding the Great Lakes for 2002-2005 showed that MCSs frequently form in the vicinity of the Great Lakes. Composites of MCS events over the Great Lakes and in sub-regions defined by proximity to a Great Lake showed that the most important synoptic-scale precursor for MCS initiation is the presence of a low-level moisture plume, which is often (but not always) provided by a low-level jet (LLJ). Case studies of two MCSs that formed along the eastern shore of Lake Michigan showed how differential heating across the land-lake interface enabled the development of a near-surface mesoscale thermal boundary along which forced ascent was able to trigger convection. A third case study of an MCS that formed along the southern shore of Lake Superior showed that a strong land-lake thermal boundary provided a focus for long-lived MCS development beneath a plume of warm, moist air along the LLJ. High-resolution WRF-modeling studies were used to test the effect of the presence of a Great Lake on land-lake thermal boundary development and MCS generation. In one pair of simulations, differential heating in the control run created an over-lake cold dome that grew stronger and deeper during the day. Removing the lake removed the differential heating, so the no-lake run became comparatively warmer and moister in the lowest 1000 m over the "lake". Convection focused and organized along the near-lake mesoscale boundary in the control run, but was less organized and forced by larger-scale processes

Temporal variation of phytoplankton in a small tropical crater lake, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Umaña-Villalobos, Gerardo

2010-12-01

The temporal variation in lake's phytoplankton is important to understand its general biodiversity. For tropical lakes, it has been hypothesized that they follow a similar pattern as temperate ones, on a much accelerated pace; nevertheless, few case studies have tried to elucidate this. Most studies in Costa Rica have used a monthly sampling scheme and failed in showing the expected changes. In this study, the phytoplankton of the small Barvas's crater lake was followed for more than three years, first with monthly and later with weekly samplings, that covered almost two years. Additional information on temperature and oxygen vertical profiles was obtained on a monthly basis, and surface temperature was measured during weekly samplings around noon. Results showed that in spite of its shallow condition (max. depth: 7m) and low surface temperature (11 to 19 degrees C), the lake stratifies at least for brief periods. The phytoplankton showed both, rapid change periods, and prolonged ones of relative stasis. The plankton composition fluctuated between three main phases, one characterized by the abundance of small sized desmids (Staurastrum paradoxum, Cosmarium asphaerosporum), a second phase dominated by equally small cryptomonads (Chryptochrysis minor, Chroomonas sp.) and a third phase dominated by the green alga Eutetramorus tetrasporus. Although data evidenced that monthly sampling could miss short term events, the temporal variation did not follow the typical dry and rainy seasons of the region, or any particular annual pattern. Year to year variation was high. As this small lake is located at the summit of Barva Volcano and receives the influence from both the Caribbean and the Pacific weather, seasonality at the lake is not clearly defined as in the rest of the country and short term variations in the local weather might have a stronger effect than broad seasonal trends. The occurrence of this short term changes in the phytoplankton of small tropical lakes in

Abundance and morphometry changes across the high-mountain lake-size gradient in the tropical Andes of Southern Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosquera, Pablo V.; Hampel, Henrietta; Vázquez, Raúl F.; Alonso, Miguel; Catalan, Jordi

2017-08-01

The number, size, and shape of lakes are key determinants of the ecological functionality of a lake district. The lake area scaling relationships with lake number and volume enable upscaling biogeochemical processes and spatially considering organisms' metapopulation dynamics. These relationships vary regionally depending on the geomorphological context, particularly in the range of lake area <1 km2 and mountainous regions. The Cajas Massif (Southern Ecuador) holds a tropical mountain lake district with 5955 water bodies. The number of lakes deviates from a power law relationship with the lake area at both ends of the size range; similarly to the distributions found in temperate mountain ranges. The deviation of each distribution tail does not respond to the same cause. The marked relief limits the size of the largest lakes at high altitudes, whereas ponds are prompt to a complete infilling. A bathymetry survey of 202 lakes, selected across the full-size range, revealed a volume-area scaling coefficient larger than those found for other lake areas of glacial origin but softer relief. Water renewal time is not consistently proportional to the lake area due to the volume-area variation in midsize lakes. The 85% of the water surface is in lakes >104 m2 and 50% of the water resources are held in a few ones (˜10) deeper than 18 m. Therefore, midlakes and large lakes are by far more biogeochemically relevant than ponds and shallow lakes in this tropical mountain lake district.

LakeMIP Kivu: Evaluating the representation of a large, deep tropical lake by a set of 1-dimensional lake models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Stepanenko, Viktor; Darchambeau, François; Joehnk, Klaus; Martynov, Andrey; Mironov, Dmitrii; Perroud, Marjorie; van Lipzig, Nicole

2013-04-01

The African great lakes are of utmost importance for the local economy (fishing), as well as being essential to the survival of the local people. During the last decades, these lakes experienced fast changes in ecosystem structure and functioning and their future evolution is a major concern. In this study, for the first time a set of one-dimensional lake models are evaluated over East-Africa, in particular over Lake Kivu (2.28 °S; 28.98 °E). The unique limnology of meromictic Lake Kivu, with the importance of salinity and geothermal springs in a tropical high-altitude climate, presents a worthy challenge to the 1D-lake models currently involved in the Lake Model Intercomparison Project (LakeMIP). Furthermore, this experiment will serve as the basis for a future, more complex intercomparison, coupling lake models with atmospheric circulation models to analyse climate change effects on the lake. Meteorological observations from two automatic weather stations, one at Kamembe airport (Rwanda, 2003-2008), the other at ISP Bukavu (DRC, 2003-2011), are used to drive each of these models. For the evaluation, a unique dataset is used which contains over 150 temperature profiles recorded since 2002. The standard LakeMIP protocol is adapted to mirror the limnological conditions in Lake Kivu and to unify model parameters as far as possible. Since some lake models do not account for salinity and its effect upon lake stratification, two sets of simulations are performed with each model: one for the freshwater layer only (60 m) and one for the average lake depth (240 m) including salinity. Therewith, on the one hand it is investigated whether each model is able to reproduce the correct mixing regime in Lake Kivu and captures the controlling of this seasonality by the relative humidity, which constrains evaporation except during summer (JJA). On the other hand, the ability of different models to simulate salinity- and geothermal-induced effects upon deep water stratification is

Warming trends of perialpine lakes from homogenised time series of historical satellite and in-situ data.

PubMed

Pareeth, Sajid; Bresciani, Mariano; Buzzi, Fabio; Leoni, Barbara; Lepori, Fabio; Ludovisi, Alessandro; Morabito, Giuseppe; Adrian, Rita; Neteler, Markus; Salmaso, Nico

2017-02-01

The availability of more than thirty years of historical satellite data is a valuable source which could be used as an alternative to the sparse in-situ data. We developed a new homogenised time series of daily day time Lake Surface Water Temperature (LSWT) over the last thirty years (1986-2015) at a spatial resolution of 1km from thirteen polar orbiting satellites. The new homogenisation procedure implemented in this study corrects for the different acquisition times of the satellites standardizing the derived LSWT to 12:00 UTC. In this study, we developed new time series of LSWT for five large lakes in Italy and evaluated the product with in-situ data from the respective lakes. Furthermore, we estimated the long-term annual and summer trends, the temporal coherence of mean LSWT between the lakes, and studied the intra-annual variations and long-term trends from the newly developed LSWT time series. We found a regional warming trend at a rate of 0.017°Cyr -1 annually and 0.032°Cyr -1 during summer. Mean annual and summer LSWT temporal patterns in these lakes were found to be highly coherent. Amidst the reported rapid warming of lakes globally, it is important to understand the long-term variations of surface temperature at a regional scale. This study contributes a new method to derive long-term accurate LSWT for lakes with sparse in-situ data thereby facilitating understanding of regional level changes in lake's surface temperature. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tropical cyclone warm core analyses with FY-3 microwave temperature sounder data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhe; Bai, Jie; Zhang, Wenjun; Yan, Jun; Zhou, Zhuhua

2014-05-01

Space-borne microwave instruments are well suited to analyze Tropical Cyclone (TC) warm core structure, because certain wavelengths of microwave energy are able to penetrate the cirrus above TC. With the vector discrete-ordinate microwave radiative transfer model, the basic atmospheric parameters of Hurricane BOB are used to simulate the upwelling brightness temperatures on each channel of the Microwave Temperature Sounder (MWTS) onboard FY-3A/3B observation. Based on the simulation, the characteristic of 1109 super typhoon "Muifa" warm core structure is analyzed with the MWTS channel 3. Through the radiative and hydrostatic equation, TC warm core brightness temperature anomalies are related to surface pressure anomalies. In order to correct the radiation attenuation caused by MWTS scan geometric features, and improve the capability in capturing the relatively complete warm core radiation, a proposed algorithm is devised to correct the bias from receiving warm core microwave radiation, shows similar time-variant tendency with "Muifa" minimal sea level pressure as described by TC best track data. As the next generation of FY-3 satellite will be launched in 2012, this method will be further verified

Statistical Aspects of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones: Trends, Natural Variability, and Global Warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2007-01-01

Statistical aspects of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945- 2005 are examined, including the variation of the yearly frequency of occurrence for various subgroups of storms (all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, major hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes, and category 4/5 hurricanes); the yearly variation of the mean latitude and longitude (genesis location) of all tropical cyclones and hurricanes; and the yearly variation of the mean peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and durations for all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Also examined is the relationship between inferred trends found in the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity and natural variability and global warming, the latter described using surface air temperatures from the Armagh Observatory Armagh, Northern Ireland. Lastly, a simple statistical technique is employed to ascertain the expected level of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity for the upcoming 2007 season.

Plasticity in habitat use determines metabolic response of fish to global warming in stratified lakes.

PubMed

Busch, Susan; Kirillin, Georgiy; Mehner, Thomas

2012-09-01

We used a coupled lake physics and bioenergetics-based foraging model to evaluate how the plasticity in habitat use modifies the seasonal metabolic response of two sympatric cold-water fishes (vendace and Fontane cisco, Coregonus spp.) under a global warming scenario for the year 2100. In different simulations, the vertically migrating species performed either a plastic strategy (behavioral thermoregulation) by shifting their population depth at night to maintain the temperatures occupied at current in-situ observations, or a fixed strategy (no thermoregulation) by keeping their occupied depths at night but facing modified temperatures. The lake physics model predicted higher temperatures above 20 m and lower temperatures below 20 m in response to warming. Using temperature-zooplankton relationships, the density of zooplankton prey was predicted to increase at the surface, but to decrease in hypolimnetic waters. Simulating the fixed strategy, growth was enhanced only for the deeper-living cisco due to the shift in thermal regime at about 20 m. In contrast, simulating the plastic strategy, individual growth of cisco and young vendace was predicted to increase compared to growth currently observed in the lake. Only growth rates of older vendace are reduced under future global warming scenarios irrespective of the behavioral strategy. However, performing behavioral thermoregulation would drive both species into the same depth layers, and hence will erode vertical microhabitat segregation and intensify inter-specific competition between the coexisting coregonids.

An oxygen isotope record from Lake Xiarinur in Inner Mongolia since the last deglaciation and its implication for tropical monsoon change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Qing; Chu, Guoqiang; Xie, Manman; Zhu, Qingzeng; Su, Youliang; Wang, Xisheng

2018-04-01

We present a high-resolution oxygen isotope record from authigenic carbonate (δ18Ocarb) from Lake Xiarinur (Inner Mongolia) since the last deglaciation. The lake is located at the modern northern limit of the monsoon, and is therefore sensitive to the extension of the East Asian summer monsoon. Based on calibration against the instrumental record, the δ18Ocar variation has been interpreted as changes in atmospheric circulation pattern on decadal time scales. On longer time scales, the δ18Ocarb in lake sediments could be mainly regulated by the relative contribution of nearby (remote) water-vapor sources associated with subtropical (tropical) monsoon through changes in the distance from sources to the site of precipitation. Increased remote water vapors from tropical monsoon would lead to lighter isotope value in our study site. Through time the δ18Ocarb record in Lake Xiarinur indicate a notable weak tropical monsoon during the Younger Dryas, a gradual increasing monsoon from the early Holocene and weakening monsoon after the middle Holocene. Oxygen isotope records from lakes and stalagmite in the Asian monsoon region across different localities show a general similar temporal pattern since the last deglaciation, and highlight a fundamental role of the tropical monsoon.

Tropical/Subtropical Peatland Development and Global CH4 during the Last Glaciation.

PubMed

Xu, Hai; Lan, Jianghu; Sheng, Enguo; Liu, Yong; Liu, Bin; Yu, Keke; Ye, Yuanda; Cheng, Peng; Qiang, Xiaoke; Lu, Fengyan; Wang, Xulong

2016-07-28

Knowledge of peatland development over the tropical/subtropical zone during the last glaciation is critical for understanding the glacial global methane cycle. Here we present a well-dated 'peat deposit-lake sediment' alternate sequence at Tengchong, southwestern China, and discuss the peatland development and its linkage to the global glacial methane cycle. Peat layers were formed during the cold Marine Isotope Stage (MIS)-2 and -4, whereas lake sediments coincided with the relatively warm MIS-3, which is possibly related to the orbital/suborbital variations in both temperature and Asian summer monsoon intensity. The Tengchong peatland formation pattern is broadly synchronous with those over subtropical southern China and other tropical/subtropical areas, but it is clearly in contrast to those over the mid-high Northern Hemisphere. The results of this work suggest that the shifts of peatland development between the tropical/subtropical zone and mid-high Northern Hemisphere may have played important roles in the glacial/interglacial global atmospheric CH4 cycles.

Tropical/Subtropical Peatland Development and Global CH4 during the Last Glaciation

PubMed Central

Xu, Hai; Lan, Jianghu; Sheng, Enguo; Liu, Yong; Liu, Bin; Yu, Keke; Ye, Yuanda; Cheng, Peng; Qiang, Xiaoke; Lu, Fengyan; Wang, Xulong

2016-01-01

Knowledge of peatland development over the tropical/subtropical zone during the last glaciation is critical for understanding the glacial global methane cycle. Here we present a well-dated ‘peat deposit-lake sediment’ alternate sequence at Tengchong, southwestern China, and discuss the peatland development and its linkage to the global glacial methane cycle. Peat layers were formed during the cold Marine Isotope Stage (MIS)-2 and -4, whereas lake sediments coincided with the relatively warm MIS-3, which is possibly related to the orbital/suborbital variations in both temperature and Asian summer monsoon intensity. The Tengchong peatland formation pattern is broadly synchronous with those over subtropical southern China and other tropical/subtropical areas, but it is clearly in contrast to those over the mid-high Northern Hemisphere. The results of this work suggest that the shifts of peatland development between the tropical/subtropical zone and mid-high Northern Hemisphere may have played important roles in the glacial/interglacial global atmospheric CH4 cycles. PMID:27465566

Effect of the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean warming since the late 1970s on wintertime Northern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and East Asian climate interdecadal changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Cuijiao; Yang, Xiu-Qun; Sun, Xuguang; Yang, Dejian; Jiang, Yiquan; Feng, Tao; Liang, Jin

2018-04-01

Observation reveals that the tropical Pacific-Indian Ocean (TPIO) has experienced a pronounced interdecadal warming since the end of the 1970s. Meanwhile, the wintertime midlatitude Northern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and East Asian climate have also undergone substantial interdecadal changes. The effect of the TPIO warming on these interdecadal changes are identified by a suite of AMIP-type atmospheric general circulation model experiments in which the model is integrated from September 1948 to December 1999 with prescribed historical, observed realistic sea surface temperature (SST) in a specific region and climatological SST elsewhere. Results show that the TPIO warming reproduces quite well the observed Northern Hemispheric wintertime interdecadal changes, suggesting that these interdecadal changes primarily originate from the TPIO warming. However, each sub-region of TPIO has its own distinct contribution. Comparatively, the tropical central-eastern Pacific (TCEP) and tropical western Pacific (TWP) warming makes dominant contributions to the observed positive-phase PNA-like interdecadal anomaly over the North Pacific sector, while the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming tends to cancel these contributions. Meanwhile, the TIO and TWP warming makes dominant contributions to the observed positive NAO-like interdecadal anomaly over the North Atlantic sector as well as the interdecadal anomalies over the Eurasian sector, although the TWP warming's contribution is relatively small. These remote responses are directly attributed to the TPIO warming-induced tropical convection, rainfall and diabatic heating increases, in which the TIO warming has the most significant effect. Moreover, the TPIO warming excites a Gill-type pattern anomaly over the tropical western Pacific, with a low-level anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the Philippine Sea. Of three sub-regions, the TIO warming dominates such a pattern, although the TWP warming tends to cancel this effect

Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Area Expansion, Modoki Activity, and Tropical Cold-Point Tropopause Temperature Variations

PubMed Central

Xie, Fei; Li, Jianping; Tian, Wenshou; Li, Yanjie; Feng, Juan

2014-01-01

The tropical cold-point tropopause temperature (CPTT), a potentially important indicator of global climate change, is of particular importance for understanding changes in stratospheric water vapor levels. Since the 1980s, the tropical CPTT has shown not only interannual variations, but also a decreasing trend. However, the factors controlling the variations in the tropical CPTT since the 1980s remain elusive. The present study reveals that the continuous expansion of the area of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) since the 1980s represents an increase in the total heat energy of the IPWP available to heat the tropospheric air, which is likely to expand as a result. This process lifts the tropical cold-point tropopause height (CPTH) and leads to the observed long-term cooling trend of the tropical CPTT. In addition, our analysis shows that Modoki activity is an important factor in modulating the interannual variations of the tropical CPTT through significant effects on overshooting convection. PMID:24686481

Amino acid composition reveals functional diversity of zooplankton in tropical lakes related to geography, taxonomy and productivity.

PubMed

Aranguren-Riaño, Nelson J; Guisande, Cástor; Shurin, Jonathan B; Jones, Natalie T; Barreiro, Aldo; Duque, Santiago R

2018-07-01

Variation in resource use among species determines their potential for competition and co-existence, as well as their impact on ecosystem processes. Planktonic crustaceans consume a range of micro-organisms that vary among habitats and species, but these differences in resource consumption are difficult to characterize due to the small size of the organisms. Consumers acquire amino acids from their diet, and the composition of tissues reflects both the use of different resources and their assimilation in proteins. We examined the amino acid composition of common crustacean zooplankton from 14 tropical lakes in Colombia in three regions (the Amazon floodplain, the eastern range of the Andes, and the Caribbean coast). Amino acid composition varied significantly among taxonomic groups and the three regions. Functional richness in amino acid space was greatest in the Amazon, the most productive region, and tended to be positively related to lake trophic status, suggesting the niche breadth of the community could increase with ecosystem productivity. Functional evenness increased with lake trophic status, indicating that species were more regularly distributed within community-wide niche space in more productive lakes. These results show that zooplankton resource use in tropical lakes varies with both habitat and taxonomy, and that lake productivity may affect community functional diversity and the distribution of species within niche space.

The Nyanza Project: Interdisciplinary Research Training In Tropical Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, A. S.; Lezzar, K. E.; Michel, E.; O'Reilly, C. M.; Russell, J. M.; Nkotagu, H.; Kimirei, I.

2005-12-01

The Nyanza Project is a research training program for American and African students, run annually at Lake Tanganyika (LT), Tanzania. The Project`s objective is to provide undergraduates, graduate students and secondary school teachers with the skills to plan and conduct interdisciplinary research on various aspects of tropical lake studiees. At a time of rapid global change there is a pressing need for young scientists trained to investigate environmental processes in an interdisciplinary framework. Training students to understand long-term changes in water availability, water quality and the relationship of aquatic ecosystems to rapid climate change represents a critical element of this societal need. Waterbodies in the tropics are particularly useful proving grounds for training future researchers on the impacts of global change on natural waters, as they are very sensitive to environmental and climatic change. Moreover, they are likely to provide instructive bellwethers of changes to come in U.S. inland waters. Each year 17-22 undergraduates, 3-4 graduate students and one secondary school teacher are selected for the program from the US and Africa. To date (1998-2005), 89 undergraduate students, 24 graduate students, and 8 secondary school teachers from the US have participated through the Project`s NSF support and 58 African students (from Tanzania, Burundi, Zambia, Congo, Kenya, and Burkina Faso) have been funded to participate in the Nyanza Project through supporting grants from our non-NSF funding sources. The 7-week program comprises an initial two week intensive short course on all aspects of the LT system and project preparation period, followed by 5 weeks of directed research, written report preparation, and scientific meeting-styled presentations. Focal topics for Nyanza Project research include: 1) investigating East African paleoclimates using sediment cores and reflection seismic profiling, 2) mapping & interpreting the geologic structure and

Responses of trophic structure and zooplankton community to salinity and temperature in Tibetan lakes: Implication for the effect of climate warming.

PubMed

Lin, Qiuqi; Xu, Lei; Hou, Juzhi; Liu, Zhengwen; Jeppesen, Erik; Han, Bo-Ping

2017-11-01

Warming has pronounced effects on lake ecosystems, either directly by increased temperatures or indirectly by a change in salinity. We investigated the current status of zooplankton communities and trophic structure in 45 Tibetan lakes along a 2300 m altitude and a 76 g/l salinity gradient. Freshwater to hyposaline lakes mainly had three trophic levels: phytoplankton, small zooplankton and fish/Gammarus, while mesosaline to hypersaline lakes only had two: phytoplankton and large zooplankton. Zooplankton species richness declined significantly with salinity, but did not relate with temperature. Furthermore, the decline in species richness with salinity in lakes with two trophic levels was much less abrupt than in lakes with three trophic levels. The structural variation of the zooplankton community depended on the length of the food chain, and was significantly explained by salinity as the critical environmental variable. The zooplankton community shifted from dominance of copepods and small cladoceran species in the lakes with low salinity and three trophic levels to large saline filter-feeding phyllopod species in those lakes with high salinity and two trophic levels. The zooplankton to phytoplankton biomass ratio was positively related with temperature in two-trophic-level systems and vice versa in three-trophic-level systems. As the Tibetan Plateau is warming about three times faster than the global average, our results imply that warming could have a considerable impact on the structure and function of Tibetan lake ecosystems, either via indirect effects of salinization/desalinization on species richness, composition and trophic structure or through direct effects of water temperature on trophic interactions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Temperature Reconstructions from Holocene and Late Glacial Lake Sediments in the Tropical Andes using Chironomidae (non-biting midges)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews-Bird, F.; Gosling, W. D.; Brooks, S. J.; Montoya, E.; Coe, A. L.

2014-12-01

Chironomidae (non-biting midges) is a family of two-winged aquatic insects of the order Diptera. They are globally distributed and one of the most diverse families within aquatic ecosystems. The insects are stenotopic, and the rapid turnover of species and their ability to colonise quickly favourable habitats means chironomids are extremely sensitive to environmental change, notably temperature. Through the development of quantitative temperature inference models chironomids have become important palaeoecological tools. Proxies capable of generating independent estimates of past climate are crucial to disentangling climate signals and ecosystem response in the palaeoecological record. This project has developed the first modern environmental calibration data set in order to use chironomids from the Tropical Andes as quantitative climate proxies. Using surface sediments from c. 60 lakes from Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador we have developed an inference model capable of reconstructing temperatures, with a prediction error of 1-2°C, from fossil assemblages. Here we present the first Lateglacial and Holocene chironomid-inferred temperature reconstructions from two sites in the tropical Andes. The first record, from a high elevation (4153 m asl) lake in the Bolivian Andes, shows persistently cool temperatures for the past 15 kyr, punctuated by warm episodes in the early Holocene (9-10 kyr BP). The chironomid-inferred Holocene temperature trends from a lake sediment record on the eastern Andean flank of Ecuador (1248 m asl) spanning the last 5 millennia are synchronous with temperature changes in the NGRIP ice core record. The temperature estimates suggest along the eastern flank of the Andes, at lower latitudes (~1°S), climate closely resemble the well-established fluctuations of the Northern Hemisphere for this time period. Late-glacial climate fluctuations across South America are still disputed with some palaeoecological records suggesting evidence for Younger Dryas

Global warming and tropical cyclone climate in the western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Nam-Young

Violent tropical cyclones (TCs) continue to inflict serious impacts on national economies and welfare, but how they are responding to global warming has not been fully clarified. Here I construct an empirical framework that shows the observations supporting a strong link between rising global ocean warmth and increasing trade-off between TC intensity and frequency in the western North Pacific. Thermodynamic structure of the tropical western North Pacific with high global ocean warmth is characterized by convectively more unstable lower troposphere with greater heat and moisture, but this instability is simultaneously accompanied by anomalous high pressure in the middle and upper troposphere over the same region. Increasing trade-off level between TC intensity and frequency in a warmer year proves that this environment further inhibits the TC occurrences over the region, but TCs that form tend to discharge stored energy to upper troposphere with stronger intensities. By increasing the intensity threshold at higher levels we confirmed that the TC climate connection with global ocean warmth occurs throughout the strongest portion of TCs, and the environmental connection of the TC climate is more conspicuous in the extreme portion of TCs. Intensities at the strongest 10~% of the western North Pacific TCs are comparable to super typhoons on average, the increasing trade-off magnitude clearly suggests that super typhoons in a warmer year gets stronger. Conclusively, the negative collinear feature of the thermodynamics influences the portion of TCs at the highest intensities, and super typhoons are likely to become stronger at the expense of overall TC frequencies in a warmer world. The consequence of this finding is that record-breaking TC intensities occur at the expense of overall TC frequencies under global warming. TC activity is understood as a variation which is independent of global warming, and could be assumed to be an internal variability having no trend

Quaternary glaciation and hydrologic variation in the South American tropics as reconstructed from the Lake Titicaca drilling project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Baker, Paul A.; Seltzer, Geoffrey O.; Ballantyne, Ashley; Tapia, Pedro; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence

2007-11-01

A 136-m-long drill core of sediments was recovered from tropical high-altitude Lake Titicaca, Bolivia-Peru, enabling a reconstruction of past climate that spans four cycles of regional glacial advance and retreat and that is estimated to extend continuously over the last 370,000 yr. Within the errors of the age model, the periods of regional glacial advance and retreat are concordant respectively with global glacial and interglacial stages. Periods of ice advance in the southern tropical Andes generally were periods of positive water balance, as evidenced by deeper and fresher conditions in Lake Titicaca. Conversely, reduced glaciation occurred during periods of negative water balance and shallow closed-basin conditions in the lake. The apparent coincidence of positive water balance of Lake Titicaca and glacial growth in the adjacent Andes with Northern Hemisphere ice sheet expansion implies that regional water balance and glacial mass balance are strongly influenced by global-scale temperature changes, as well as by precessional forcing of the South American summer monsoon.

Rapid upslope shifts in New Guinean birds illustrate strong distributional responses of tropical montane species to global warming

PubMed Central

Freeman, Benjamin G.; Class Freeman, Alexandra M.

2014-01-01

Temperate-zone species have responded to warming temperatures by shifting their distributions poleward and upslope. Thermal tolerance data suggests that tropical species may respond to warming temperatures even more strongly than temperate-zone species, but this prediction has yet to be tested. We addressed this data gap by conducting resurveys to measure distributional responses to temperature increases in the elevational limits of the avifaunas of two geographically and faunally independent New Guinean mountains, Mt. Karimui and Karkar Island, 47 and 44 y after they were originally surveyed. Although species richness is roughly five times greater on mainland Mt. Karimui than oceanic Karkar Island, distributional shifts at both sites were similar: upslope shifts averaged 113 m (Mt. Karimui) and 152 m (Karkar Island) for upper limits and 95 m (Mt. Karimui) and 123 m (Karkar Island) for lower limits. We incorporated these results into a metaanalysis to compare distributional responses of tropical species with those of temperate-zone species, finding that average upslope shifts in tropical montane species match local temperature increases significantly more closely than in temperate-zone montane species. That tropical species appear to be strong responders has global conservation implications and provides empirical support to hitherto untested models that predict widespread extinctions in upper-elevation tropical endemics with small ranges. PMID:24550460

Geochemical and Sedimentological Records of Late Quaternary Climate Change, Lake Tanganyika, Tropical East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felton, A. A.; Russell, J. M.; Cohen, A. S.; Baker, M. E.; McGlue, M. M.; Lezzar, K. E.

2005-12-01

We have analyzed piston core records from Lake Tanganyika (western Tanzania, East African Rift Valley) to investigate possible signals of tropical paleoclimate change during the Late Quaternary. Long paleoclimate records from East Africa are of importance for understanding climatic processes such as the role of solar variability in regulating tropical climates at Milankovitch time scales, and the relationship between abrupt climate changes, migration of Intertropical Convergence Zone, and regional climate variability (Nicholson, 2000). However, records of pre-Holocene climate variability from tropical African lakes (>25ka) are still quite rare. Long records from Lake Tanganyika are of particular interest given the lake's antiquity and its demonstrated potential for producing high resolution (frequently annually laminated) sedimentary records (Cohen et al., 1993). We analyzed physical properties, grain size, total organic carbon, major, minor and trace element variability, and biogenic silica data for a 7.75 m core from the Kalya slope and horst region of central Lake Tanganyika at 640m water depth. Nine 14C dates provide an age model for the core, which spans ~62 cal kyr. Elemental concentrations preserved in Lake Tanganyika sediments record variability in deposition and runoff into the lake basin. Under conditions of rapid erosion, exposure and rapid weathering of bedrock has been shown to generate high concentrations of original silicate minerals enriched in soluble cations such as sodium and potassium, elements that are also biologically conservative. Prior to 40ka cal yr. core sediments are characterized by high magnetic susceptibility, intermediate levels of organic carbon, low to intermediate levels of biogenic silica, and fine grain size, indicative of relatively high precipitation. There is a profound decrease in magnetic susceptibility, a decrease in organic carbon and an increase in grain size at 40ka cal yr, which persists until ~16ka cal yr. Seismic

Understanding the El Niño-like Oceanic Response in the Tropical Pacific to Global Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

The enhanced central and eastern Pacific SST warming and the associated ocean processes under global warming are investigated using the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2). The tropical SST warming pattern in the coupled CESM can be faithfully reproduced by the POP2 forced with surface fluxes computed using the aerodynamic bulk formula. By prescribing the wind stress and/or wind speed through the bulk formula, the effects of wind stress change and/or the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback are isolated and their linearity is evaluated in this ocean-alone setting. Result shows that, although themore » weakening of the equatorial easterlies contributes positively to the El Niño-like SST warming, 80% of which can be simulated by the POP2 without considering the effects of wind change in both mechanical and thermodynamic fluxes. This result points to the importance of the air-sea thermal interaction and the relative feebleness of the ocean dynamical process in the El Niño-like equatorial Pacific SST response to global warming. On the other hand, the wind stress change is found to play a dominant role in the oceanic response in the tropical Pacific, accounting for most of the changes in the equatorial ocean current system and thermal structures, including the weakening of the surface westward currents, the enhancement of the near-surface stratification and the shoaling of the equatorial thermocline. Interestingly, greenhouse gas warming in the absence of wind stress change and WES feedback also contributes substantially to the changes at the subsurface equatorial Pacific. Further, this warming impact can be largely replicated by an idealized ocean experiment forced by a uniform surface heat flux, whereby, arguably, a purest form of oceanic dynamical thermostat is revealed.« less

Extent of Night Warming and Spatially Heterogeneous Cloudiness Differentiate Temporal Trend of Greenness in Mountainous Tropics in the New Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Mei; Gao, Qiong; Gao, Chunxiao; Wang, Chao

2017-01-01

Tropical forests have essential functions in global C dynamics but vulnerable to changes in land cover land use (LCLUC) and climate. The tropics of Caribbean are experiencing warming and drying climate and diverse LCLUC. However, large-scale studies to detect long-term trends of C and mechanisms behind are still rare. Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we investigated greenness trend in the Greater Antilles Caribbean during 2000-2015, and analyzed trend of vegetation patches without LCLUC to give prominence to climate impacts. We hypothesized that night warming and heavy cloudiness would reduce EVI in this mountainous tropical region. Over the 15 years, EVI decreased significantly in Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico, but increased in Cuba partly due to its strong reforestation. Haiti had the largest decreasing trend because of continuous deforestation for charcoals. After LCLUC was excluded, EVI trend still varied greatly, decreasing in the windward but increasing in the leeward of Puerto Rico. Nighttime warming reinforced by spatially heterogeneous cloudiness was found to significantly and negatively correlate with EVI trend, and explained the spatial pattern of the latter. Although cooled daytime and increased rainfall might enhance EVI, nighttime warming dominated the climate impacts and differentiated the EVI trend.

Extent of Night Warming and Spatially Heterogeneous Cloudiness Differentiate Temporal Trend of Greenness in Mountainous Tropics in the New Century

PubMed Central

Yu, Mei; Gao, Qiong; Gao, Chunxiao; Wang, Chao

2017-01-01

Tropical forests have essential functions in global C dynamics but vulnerable to changes in land cover land use (LCLUC) and climate. The tropics of Caribbean are experiencing warming and drying climate and diverse LCLUC. However, large-scale studies to detect long-term trends of C and mechanisms behind are still rare. Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we investigated greenness trend in the Greater Antilles Caribbean during 2000–2015, and analyzed trend of vegetation patches without LCLUC to give prominence to climate impacts. We hypothesized that night warming and heavy cloudiness would reduce EVI in this mountainous tropical region. Over the 15 years, EVI decreased significantly in Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico, but increased in Cuba partly due to its strong reforestation. Haiti had the largest decreasing trend because of continuous deforestation for charcoals. After LCLUC was excluded, EVI trend still varied greatly, decreasing in the windward but increasing in the leeward of Puerto Rico. Nighttime warming reinforced by spatially heterogeneous cloudiness was found to significantly and negatively correlate with EVI trend, and explained the spatial pattern of the latter. Although cooled daytime and increased rainfall might enhance EVI, nighttime warming dominated the climate impacts and differentiated the EVI trend. PMID:28120949

Arctic lakes are continuous methane sources to the atmosphere under warming conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Zeli; Zhuang, Qianlai

2015-05-01

Methane is the second most powerful carbon-based greenhouse gas in the atmosphere and its production in the natural environment through methanogenesis is positively correlated with temperature. Recent field studies showed that methane emissions from Arctic thermokarst lakes are significant and could increase by two- to four-fold due to global warming. But the estimates of this source are still poorly constrained. By using a process-based climate-sensitive lake biogeochemical model, we estimated that the total amount of methane emissions from Arctic lakes is 11.86 Tg yr-1, which is in the range of recent estimates of 7.1-17.3 Tg yr-1 and is on the same order of methane emissions from northern high-latitude wetlands. The methane emission rate varies spatially over high latitudes from 110.8 mg CH4 m-2 day-1 in Alaska to 12.7 mg CH4 m-2 day-1 in northern Europe. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 future climate scenarios, methane emissions from Arctic lakes will increase by 10.3 and 16.2 Tg CH4 yr-1, respectively, by the end of the 21st century.

Inherited hypoxia: A new challenge for reoligotrophicated lakes under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenny, Jean-Philippe; Arnaud, Fabien; Alric, Benjamin; Dorioz, Jean-Marcel; Sabatier, Pierre; Meybeck, Michel; Perga, Marie-Elodie

2014-12-01

The Anthropocene is characterized by a worldwide spread of hypoxia, among other manifestations, which threatens aquatic ecosystem functions, services, and biodiversity. The primary cause of hypoxia onset in recent decades is human-triggered eutrophication. Global warming has also been demonstrated to contribute to the increase of hypoxic conditions. However, the precise role of both environmental forcings on hypoxia dynamics over the long term remains mainly unknown due to a lack of historical monitoring. In this study, we used an innovative paleolimnological approach on three large European lakes to quantify past hypoxia dynamics and to hierarchies the contributions of climate and nutrients. Even for lake ecosystems that have been well oxygenated over a millennia-long period, and regardless of past climatic fluctuations, a shift to hypoxic conditions occurred in the 1950s in response to an unprecedented rise in total phosphorus concentrations above 10 ± 5 µg P L-1. Following this shift, hypoxia never disappeared despite the fact that environmental policies succeeded in drastically reducing lake phosphorus concentrations. During that period, decadal fluctuations in hypoxic volume were great, ranging between 0.5 and 8% of the total lake volumes. We demonstrate, through statistical modeling, that these fluctuations were essentially driven by climatic factors, such as river discharge and air temperature. In lakes Geneva and Bourget, which are fed by large river systems, fluctuations in hypoxic volume were negatively correlated with river discharge. In contrast, the expansion of hypoxia has been related only to warmer air temperatures at Annecy, which is fed by small river systems. Hence, we outline a theoretical framework assuming that restored lake ecosystems have inherited hypoxia from the eutrophication period and have shifted to a new stable state with new key controls of water and ecosystem quality. We suggest that controlling river discharge may be a

Sea surface height evidence for long-term warming effects of tropical cyclones on the ocean

PubMed Central

Mei, Wei; Primeau, François; McWilliams, James C.; Pasquero, Claudia

2013-01-01

Tropical cyclones have been hypothesized to influence climate by pumping heat into the ocean, but a direct measure of this warming effect is still lacking. We quantified cyclone-induced ocean warming by directly monitoring the thermal expansion of water in the wake of cyclones, using satellite-based sea surface height data that provide a unique way of tracking the changes in ocean heat content on seasonal and longer timescales. We find that the long-term effect of cyclones is to warm the ocean at a rate of 0.32 ± 0.15 PW between 1993 and 2009, i.e., ∼23 times more efficiently per unit area than the background equatorial warming, making cyclones potentially important modulators of the climate by affecting heat transport in the ocean–atmosphere system. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the rate of warming increases with cyclone intensity. This, together with a predicted shift in the distribution of cyclones toward higher intensities as climate warms, suggests the ocean will get even warmer, possibly leading to a positive feedback. PMID:23922393

Sea surface height evidence for long-term warming effects of tropical cyclones on the ocean.

PubMed

Mei, Wei; Primeau, François; McWilliams, James C; Pasquero, Claudia

2013-09-17

Tropical cyclones have been hypothesized to influence climate by pumping heat into the ocean, but a direct measure of this warming effect is still lacking. We quantified cyclone-induced ocean warming by directly monitoring the thermal expansion of water in the wake of cyclones, using satellite-based sea surface height data that provide a unique way of tracking the changes in ocean heat content on seasonal and longer timescales. We find that the long-term effect of cyclones is to warm the ocean at a rate of 0.32 ± 0.15 PW between 1993 and 2009, i.e., ∼23 times more efficiently per unit area than the background equatorial warming, making cyclones potentially important modulators of the climate by affecting heat transport in the ocean-atmosphere system. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the rate of warming increases with cyclone intensity. This, together with a predicted shift in the distribution of cyclones toward higher intensities as climate warms, suggests the ocean will get even warmer, possibly leading to a positive feedback.

Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming.

PubMed

Singh, Martin S; Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D; Hannah, Walter M; Wolding, Brandon O

2017-10-31

Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth's atmosphere. Published under the PNAS license.

Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming

PubMed Central

Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D.; Hannah, Walter M.; Wolding, Brandon O.

2017-01-01

Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth’s atmosphere. PMID:29078312

Tropical nighttime warming as a dominant driver of variability in the terrestrial carbon sink

Treesearch

William R. L. Anderegg; Ashley P. Ballantyne; W. Kolby Smith; Joseph Majkut; Sam Rabin; Claudie Beaulieu; Richard Birdsey; John P. Dunne; Richard A. Houghton; Ranga B. Myneni; Yude Pan; Jorge L. Sarmiento; Nathan Serota; Elena Shevliakova; Pieter Tans; Stephen W. Pacala

2015-01-01

The terrestrial biosphere is currently a strong carbon (C) sink but may switch to a source in the 21st century as climate-driven losses exceed CO2-driven C gains, thereby accelerating global warming. Although it has long been recognized that tropical climate plays a critical role in regulating interannual climate variability, the causal link...

Lake warming favours small-sized planktonic diatom species

PubMed Central

Winder, Monika; Reuter, John E.; Schladow, S. Geoffrey

2008-01-01

Diatoms contribute to a substantial portion of primary production in the oceans and many lakes. Owing to their relatively heavy cell walls and high nutrient requirements, planktonic diatoms are expected to decrease with climate warming because of reduced nutrient redistribution and increasing sinking velocities. Using a historical dataset, this study shows that diatoms were able to maintain their biovolume with increasing stratification in Lake Tahoe over the last decades; however, the diatom community structure changed. Increased stratification and reduced nitrogen to phosphorus ratios selected for small-celled diatoms, particularly within the Cyclotella genus. An empirical model showed that a shift in phytoplankton species composition and cell size was consistent within different depth strata, indicating that altered nutrient concentrations were not responsible for the change. The increase in small-celled species was sufficient to decrease the average diatom size and thus sinking velocity, which strongly influences energy transfer through the food web and carbon cycling. Our results show that within the diverse group of diatoms, small-sized species with a high surface area to volume ratio were able to adapt to a decrease in mixing intensity, supporting the hypotheses that abiotic drivers affect the size structure of planktonic communities and that warmer climate favours small-sized diatom cells. PMID:18812287

Monoterpene 'thermometer' of tropical forest-atmosphere response to climate warming.

PubMed

Jardine, Kolby J; Jardine, Angela B; Holm, Jennifer A; Lombardozzi, Danica L; Negron-Juarez, Robinson I; Martin, Scot T; Beller, Harry R; Gimenez, Bruno O; Higuchi, Niro; Chambers, Jeffrey Q

2017-03-01

Tropical forests absorb large amounts of atmospheric CO 2 through photosynthesis but elevated temperatures suppress this absorption and promote monoterpene emissions. Using 13 CO 2 labeling, here we show that monoterpene emissions from tropical leaves derive from recent photosynthesis and demonstrate distinct temperature optima for five groups (Groups 1-5), potentially corresponding to different enzymatic temperature-dependent reaction mechanisms within β-ocimene synthases. As diurnal and seasonal leaf temperatures increased during the Amazonian 2015 El Niño event, leaf and landscape monoterpene emissions showed strong linear enrichments of β-ocimenes (+4.4% °C -1 ) at the expense of other monoterpene isomers. The observed inverse temperature response of α-pinene (-0.8% °C -1 ), typically assumed to be the dominant monoterpene with moderate reactivity, was not accurately simulated by current global emission models. Given that β-ocimenes are highly reactive with respect to both atmospheric and biological oxidants, the results suggest that highly reactive β-ocimenes may play important roles in the thermotolerance of photosynthesis by functioning as effective antioxidants within plants and as efficient atmospheric precursors of secondary organic aerosols. Thus, monoterpene composition may represent a new sensitive 'thermometer' of leaf oxidative stress and atmospheric reactivity, and therefore a new tool in future studies of warming impacts on tropical biosphere-atmosphere carbon-cycle feedbacks. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Distinctive effects of allochthonous and autochthonous organic matter on CDOM spectra in a tropical lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pena Mello Brandão, Luciana; Silva Brighenti, Ludmila; Staehr, Peter Anton; Asmala, Eero; Massicotte, Philippe; Tonetta, Denise; Antônio Rodrigues Barbosa, Francisco; Pujoni, Diego; Fernandes Bezerra-Neto, José

2018-05-01

Despite the increasing understanding about differences in carbon cycling between temperate and tropical freshwater systems, our knowledge on the importance of organic matter (OM) pools on light absorption properties in tropical lakes is very scarce. We performed a factorial mesocosm experiment in a tropical lake (Minas Gerais, Brazil) to evaluate the effects of increased concentrations of allochthonous and autochthonous OM, and differences in light availability on the light absorption characteristics of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM). Autochthonous OM deriving from phytoplankton ( ˜ Chl a) was stimulated by addition of nutrients, while OM from degradation of terrestrial leaves increased allochthonous OM, and neutral shading was used to manipulate light availability. Effects of the additions and shading on DOC, Chl a, nutrients, total suspended solid concentrations (TSM) and spectral CDOM absorption were monitored every 3 days. CDOM quality was characterized by spectral indices (S250-450, S275-295, S350-450, SR and SUVA254). Effects of carbon sources and shading on the spectral CDOM absorption was investigated through principal component (PCA) and redundancy (RDA) analyses. The two different OM sources affected CDOM quality very differently and shading had minor effects on OM levels, but significant effects on OM quality, especially in combination with nutrient additions. Spectral indices (S250-450 and SR) were mostly affected by allochthonous OM addition. The PCA showed that enrichment by allochthonous carbon had a strong effect on the CDOM spectra in the range between 300 and 400 nm, while the increase in autochthonous carbon increased absorption at wavelengths below 350 nm. Our study shows that small inputs of allochthonous OM can have large effects on the spectral light absorption compared to large production of autochthonous OM, with important implications for carbon cycling in tropical lakes.

Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming.

PubMed

Dillon, Michael E; Wang, George; Huey, Raymond B

2010-10-07

Documented shifts in geographical ranges, seasonal phenology, community interactions, genetics and extinctions have been attributed to recent global warming. Many such biotic shifts have been detected at mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere-a latitudinal pattern that is expected because warming is fastest in these regions. In contrast, shifts in tropical regions are expected to be less marked because warming is less pronounced there. However, biotic impacts of warming are mediated through physiology, and metabolic rate, which is a fundamental measure of physiological activity and ecological impact, increases exponentially rather than linearly with temperature in ectotherms. Therefore, tropical ectotherms (with warm baseline temperatures) should experience larger absolute shifts in metabolic rate than the magnitude of tropical temperature change itself would suggest, but the impact of climate warming on metabolic rate has never been quantified on a global scale. Here we show that estimated changes in terrestrial metabolic rates in the tropics are large, are equivalent in magnitude to those in the north temperate-zone regions, and are in fact far greater than those in the Arctic, even though tropical temperature change has been relatively small. Because of temperature's nonlinear effects on metabolism, tropical organisms, which constitute much of Earth's biodiversity, should be profoundly affected by recent and projected climate warming.

Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific

PubMed Central

Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L

2005-01-01

Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance of the dominant member of the pelagic community, an endemic subspecies of zooxanthellate jellyfish, is temperature associated. These results have broad relevance because the lake: (i) illustrates an ENSO signal that is partly obscured in surrounding semi-enclosed lagoon waters and, therefore, (ii) may provide a model system for studying the effects of climate change on community evolution and cnidarian–zooxanthellae symbioses, which (iii) should be traceable throughout the Holocene because the lake harbours a high quality sediment record; the sediment record should (iv) provide a sensitive and regionally unique record of Holocene climate relevant to predicting ENSO responses to future global climate change and, finally, (v) seawater lake ecosystems elsewhere in the Pacific may hold similar potential for past, present, and predictive measurements of climate variation and ecosystem response. PMID:17148349

Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific.

PubMed

Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L

2006-03-22

Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance of the dominant member of the pelagic community, an endemic subspecies of zooxanthellate jellyfish, is temperature associated. These results have broad relevance because the lake: (i) illustrates an ENSO signal that is partly obscured in surrounding semi-enclosed lagoon waters and, therefore, (ii) may provide a model system for studying the effects of climate change on community evolution and cnidarian-zooxanthellae symbioses, which (iii) should be traceable throughout the Holocene because the lake harbours a high quality sediment record; the sediment record should (iv) provide a sensitive and regionally unique record of Holocene climate relevant to predicting ENSO responses to future global climate change and, finally, (v) seawater lake ecosystems elsewhere in the Pacific may hold similar potential for past, present, and predictive measurements of climate variation and ecosystem response.

Why does tropical convective available potential energy (CAPE) increase with warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seeley, Jacob T.; Romps, David M.

2015-12-01

Recent work has produced a theory for tropical convective available potential energy (CAPE) that highlights the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling of the atmosphere's saturation deficit as a driver of increases in CAPE with warming. Here we test this so-called "zero-buoyancy" theory for CAPE by modulating the saturation deficit of cloud-resolving simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium in two ways: changing the sea surface temperature (SST) and changing the environmental relative humidity (RH). For earthlike and warmer SSTs, undilute parcel buoyancy in the lower troposphere is insensitive to increasing SST because of a countervailing CC scaling that balances the increase in the saturation deficit; however, buoyancy increases dramatically with SST in the upper troposphere. Conversely, in the RH experiment, undilute buoyancy throughout the troposphere increases monotonically with decreasing RH. We show that the zero-buoyancy theory successfully predicts these contrasting behaviors, building confidence that it describes the fundamental physics of CAPE and its response to warming.

Tropical precipitation extremes: Response to SST-induced warming in aquaplanet simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Ritthik; Bordoni, Simona; Teixeira, João.

2017-04-01

Scaling of tropical precipitation extremes in response to warming is studied in aquaplanet experiments using the global Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We show how the scaling of precipitation extremes is highly sensitive to spatial and temporal averaging: while instantaneous grid point extreme precipitation scales more strongly than the percentage increase (˜7% K-1) predicted by the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship, extremes for zonally and temporally averaged precipitation follow a slight sub-CC scaling, in agreement with results from Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models. The scaling depends crucially on the employed convection parameterization. This is particularly true when grid point instantaneous extremes are considered. These results highlight how understanding the response of precipitation extremes to warming requires consideration of dynamic changes in addition to the thermodynamic response. Changes in grid-scale precipitation, unlike those in convective-scale precipitation, scale linearly with the resolved flow. Hence, dynamic changes include changes in both large-scale and convective-scale motions.

New production in the warm waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pena, M. Angelica; Lewis, Marlon R.; Cullen, John J.

1994-01-01

The average depth-integrated rate of new production in the tropical Pacific Ocean was estimated from a calculation of horizontal and vertical nitrate balance over the region enclosed by the climatological 26 C isotherm. The net turbulent flux of nitrate into the region was computed in terms of the climatological net surface heat flux and the nitrate-temperature relationship at the base of the 26 C isotherm. The net advective transport of nitrate into the region was estimated using the mean nitrate distribution obtained from the analysis of historical data and previous results of a general circulation model of the tropical Pacific. The rate of new production resulting from vertical turbulent fluxes of nitrate was found to be similar in magnitude to that due to advective transport. Most (about 75%) of the advective input of nitrate was due to the horizontal transport of nutrient-rich water from the eastern equatorial region rather than from equatorial upwelling. An average rate of new production of 14.5 - 16 g C/sq m/yr was found for the warm waters of the tropical Pacific region. These values are in good agreement with previous estimates for this region and are almost five times less than is estimated for the eastern equatorial Pacific, where most of the nutrient upwelling occurs.

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen; Stone, Dáithí; Krishnan, Harinarayan

2018-02-01

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

Extreme Marine Warming Across Tropical Australia During Austral Summer 2015-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benthuysen, Jessica A.; Oliver, Eric C. J.; Feng, Ming; Marshall, Andrew G.

2018-02-01

During austral summer 2015-2016, prolonged extreme ocean warming events, known as marine heatwaves (MHWs), occurred in the waters around tropical Australia. MHWs arose first in the southeast tropical Indian Ocean in November 2015, emerging progressively east until March 2016, when all waters from the North West Shelf to the Coral Sea were affected. The MHW maximum intensity tended to occur in March, coinciding with the timing of the maximum sea surface temperature (SST). Large areas were in a MHW state for 3-4 months continuously with maximum intensities over 2°C. In 2016, the Indonesian-Australian Basin and areas including the Timor Sea and Kimberley shelf experienced the longest and most intense MHW from remotely sensed SST dating back to 1982. In situ temperature data from temperature loggers at coastal sites revealed a consistent picture, with MHWs appearing from west to east and peaking in March 2016. Temperature data from moorings, an Argo float, and Slocum gliders showed the extent of warming with depth. The events occurred during a strong El Niño and weakened monsoon activity, enhanced by the extended suppressed phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Reduced cloud cover in January and February 2016 led to positive air-sea heat flux anomalies into the ocean, predominantly due to the shortwave radiation contribution with a smaller additional contribution from the latent heat flux anomalies. A data-assimilating ocean model showed regional changes in the upper ocean circulation and a change in summer surface mixed layer depths and barrier layer thicknesses consistent with past El Niño events.

Holocene Paleohydrology of the tropical andes from lake records

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abbott, M. B., LLNL

Two century-scale time series in northern Bolivia constrain the ages of abrupt changes in the physical, geochemical, and biological characteristics of sediments obtained from lakes that formed during deglaciation from the late Pleistocene glacial maximum. The watersheds of Laguna Viscachani (16{degrees}12`S, 68{degrees}07`W, 3780m) and Lago Taypi Chaka Kkota (16{degrees}13`S, 68{degrees}21`W, 4300m), located on the eastern and western slopes of the Cordillera Real, respectively, contain small cirque glaciers. A high-resolution chronology of the lake sediments is provided by 23 AMS {sup 14}C dates of discrete macro-fossils. Late Pleistocene glaciers retreated rapidly, exposing the lake basins between 10,700 and 9700 {sup 14}Cmore » yr B.P. The sedimentary facies suggest that after 8900 {sup 14}C B.P. glaciers were absent from the watersheds and remained so during the middle Holocene. An increase in the precipitation-evaporation balance is indicated above unconformities dated to about 2300 {sup 14}C yr B.P. in both Lago Taypi Chaka Kkota and Laguna Viscachani. An abrupt increase in sediment accumulation rated after 1400 {sup 14}C yr B.P. signals the onset of Neoglaciation. A possible link exists between the observed millennial-scale shifts in the regional precipitation- evaporation balance and seasonal shifts in tropical insolation.« less

The Great Lakes' regional climate regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyama, Noriyuki

For the last couple of decades, the Great Lakes have undergone rapid surface warming. In particular, the magnitude of the summer surface-warming trends of the Great Lakes have been much greater than those of surrounding land (Austin and Colman, 2007). Among the Great Lakes, the deepest Lake Superior exhibited the strongest warming trend in its annual, as well as summer surface water temperature. We find that many aspects of this behavior can be explained in terms of the tendency of deep lakes to exhibit multiple regimes characterized, under the same seasonally varying forcing, by the warmer and colder seasonal cycles exhibiting different amounts of wintertime lake-ice cover and corresponding changes in the summertime lake-surface temperatures. In this thesis, we address the problem of the Great Lakes' warming using one-dimensional lake modeling to interpret diverse observations of the recent lake behavior. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

Thermal tolerance and climate warming sensitivity in tropical snails.

PubMed

Marshall, David J; Rezende, Enrico L; Baharuddin, Nursalwa; Choi, Francis; Helmuth, Brian

2015-12-01

Tropical ectotherms are predicted to be especially vulnerable to climate change because their thermal tolerance limits generally lie close to current maximum air temperatures. This prediction derives primarily from studies on insects and lizards and remains untested for other taxa with contrasting ecologies. We studied the HCT (heat coma temperatures) and ULT (upper lethal temperatures) of 40 species of tropical eulittoral snails (Littorinidae and Neritidae) inhabiting exposed rocky shores and shaded mangrove forests in Oceania, Africa, Asia and North America. We also estimated extremes in animal body temperature at each site using a simple heat budget model and historical (20 years) air temperature and solar radiation data. Phylogenetic analyses suggest that HCT and ULT exhibit limited adaptive variation across habitats (mangroves vs. rocky shores) or geographic locations despite their contrasting thermal regimes. Instead, the elevated heat tolerance of these species (HCT = 44.5 ± 1.8°C and ULT = 52.1 ± 2.2°C) seems to reflect the extreme temperature variability of intertidal systems. Sensitivity to climate warming, which was quantified as the difference between HCT or ULT and maximum body temperature, differed greatly between snails from sunny (rocky shore; Thermal Safety Margin, TSM = -14.8 ± 3.3°C and -6.2 ± 4.4°C for HCT and ULT, respectively) and shaded (mangrove) habitats (TSM = 5.1 ± 3.6°C and 12.5 ± 3.6°C). Negative TSMs in rocky shore animals suggest that mortality is likely ameliorated during extreme climatic events by behavioral thermoregulation. Given the low variability in heat tolerance across species, habitat and geographic location account for most of the variation in TSM and may adequately predict the vulnerability to climate change. These findings caution against generalizations on the impact of global warming across ectothermic taxa and highlight how the consideration of nonmodel animals, ecological transitions

Tropical Pacific climate variability over the last 6000 years as recorded in Bainbridge Crater Lake, Galápagos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Diane M.; Conroy, Jessica L.; Collins, Aaron; Hlohowskyj, Stephan R.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Riedinger-Whitmore, Melanie; Cole, Julia E.; Bush, Mark B.; Whitney, H.; Corley, Timothy L.; Kannan, Miriam Steinitz

2017-08-01

Finely laminated sediments within Bainbridge Crater Lake, Galápagos, provide a record of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events over the Holocene. Despite the importance of this sediment record, hypotheses for how climate variability is preserved in the lake sediments have not been tested. Here we present results of long-term monitoring of the local climate and limnology and a revised interpretation of the sediment record. Brown-green, organic-rich, siliciclastic laminae reflect warm, wet conditions typical of El Niño events, whereas carbonate and gypsum precipitate during cool, dry La Niña events and persistent dry periods, respectively. Applying this new interpretation, we find that ENSO events of both phases were generally less frequent during the mid-Holocene ( 6100-4000 calendar years B.P.) relative to the last 1500 calendar years. Abundant carbonate laminations between 3500 and 3000 calendar years B.P. imply that conditions in the Galápagos region were cool and dry during this period when the tropical Pacific E-W sea surface temperature (SST) gradient likely strengthened. The frequency of El Niño and La Niña events then intensified dramatically around 1750-2000 calendar years B.P., consistent with a weaker SST gradient and an increased frequency of ENSO events in other regional records. This strong interannual variability persisted until 700 calendar years B.P., when ENSO-related variability at the lake decreased as the SST gradient strengthened. Persistent, dry conditions then dominated between 300 and 50 calendar years B.P. (A.D. 1650-1900, ± 100 years), whereas wetter conditions and frequent El Niño events dominated in the most recent century.

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5°C above preindustrial average temperatures. In this paper, we present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical stormsmore » is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5°C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.« less

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

DOE PAGES

Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen; ...

2018-02-28

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5°C above preindustrial average temperatures. In this paper, we present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical stormsmore » is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5°C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.« less

Walleye recruitment success is less resilient to warming water temperatures in lakes with abundant largemouth bass populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Midway, Stephen R.; Wagner, Tyler

2018-01-01

Lakes respond heterogeneously to climate, with implications for fisheries management. We analyzed walleye (Sander vitreus) recruitment to age-0 in 359 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, to (i) quantify the relationship between annual water temperature degree days (DD) and walleye recruitment success and (ii) identify the influence of lake characteristics — area, conductivity, largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) catch rates, and mean DD — on this relationship. The relationship between walleye recruitment and annual DD varied among lakes and was not distinguishable from zero overall (posterior mean = −0.11, 90% CI = −0.34, 0.15). DD effects on recruitment were negative in 198 lakes (55%) and positive in 161 (45%). The effect of annual DD was most negative in lakes with high largemouth bass densities, and, on average, the probability of recruitment was highest in large lakes with low largemouth bass densities. Conductivity and mean DD influenced neither recruitment nor the effect of annual DD. Walleye recruitment was most resilient to warming in lakes with few largemouth bass, suggesting that the effects of climate change depend on lake-specific food-web and habitat contexts.

A 1200-Year Record of Rapid Climate Changes Across the Tropical Americas Identified from Lake Sediments (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbott, M.; Rodbell, D. T.; Stansell, N.; Bird, B. W.; Vuille, M.

2009-12-01

Well-dated, highly resolved lake sediment stratigraphies from similar catchments across the tropical Americas provide a means to investigate the timing, rate and direction of climate variability as well as providing a way to evaluate whether rapid changes occur synchronously in both hemispheres. This presentation focuses on the last 1500 years from three new high-resolution stable isotope records including Yuraicocha (12°32'S, 75°29'W), Pumacocha (10°41'S, 76° 3'36W), and Gancho (8°27'N, 80°51'W). These lakes are all sensitive to changes in P/E and the sediment records respond at subdecadal timescales. Additionally, the results from these sites are compared with lake level records from Titicaca (16°14'S, 68°37'W) and Blanca (8°19'N, 71°46'W) as well as other lake core and speleothem records from the region. The results show that in general conditions are dry across South America from ~800 AD until ~1300 AD with wetter conditions in Central America and the Caribbean. This pattern of dry conditions in tropical South America and wet conditions in the north reverses after ~1300 when conditions become wetter in South America, and drier in Central America and the Carrabin.

Monoterpene ‘thermometer’ of tropical forest-atmosphere response to climate warming

DOE PAGES

Jardine, Kolby J.; Jardine, Angela B.; Holm, Jennifer A.; ...

2016-12-11

Tropical forests absorb large amounts of atmospheric CO 2 through photosynthesis but elevated temperatures suppress this absorption and promote monoterpene emissions. Using 13CO 2 labeling, in this paper we show that monoterpene emissions from tropical leaves derive from recent photosynthesis and demonstrate distinct temperature optima for five groups (Groups 1–5), potentially corresponding to different enzymatic temperature-dependent reaction mechanisms within β-ocimene synthases. As diurnal and seasonal leaf temperatures increased during the Amazonian 2015 El Niño event, leaf and landscape monoterpene emissions showed strong linear enrichments of β-ocimenes (+4.4% °C -1) at the expense of other monoterpene isomers. The observed inverse temperaturemore » response of α-pinene (-0.8% °C -1), typically assumed to be the dominant monoterpene with moderate reactivity, was not accurately simulated by current global emission models. Given that β-ocimenes are highly reactive with respect to both atmospheric and biological oxidants, the results suggest that highly reactive β-ocimenes may play important roles in the thermotolerance of photosynthesis by functioning as effective antioxidants within plants and as efficient atmospheric precursors of secondary organic aerosols. Monoterpene composition may represent a new sensitive ‘thermometer’ of leaf oxidative stress and atmospheric reactivity, and therefore a new tool in future studies of warming impacts on tropical biosphere-atmosphere carbon-cycle feedbacks.« less

Monoterpene ‘thermometer’ of tropical forest-atmosphere response to climate warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jardine, Kolby J.; Jardine, Angela B.; Holm, Jennifer A.

Tropical forests absorb large amounts of atmospheric CO 2 through photosynthesis but elevated temperatures suppress this absorption and promote monoterpene emissions. Using 13CO 2 labeling, in this paper we show that monoterpene emissions from tropical leaves derive from recent photosynthesis and demonstrate distinct temperature optima for five groups (Groups 1–5), potentially corresponding to different enzymatic temperature-dependent reaction mechanisms within β-ocimene synthases. As diurnal and seasonal leaf temperatures increased during the Amazonian 2015 El Niño event, leaf and landscape monoterpene emissions showed strong linear enrichments of β-ocimenes (+4.4% °C -1) at the expense of other monoterpene isomers. The observed inverse temperaturemore » response of α-pinene (-0.8% °C -1), typically assumed to be the dominant monoterpene with moderate reactivity, was not accurately simulated by current global emission models. Given that β-ocimenes are highly reactive with respect to both atmospheric and biological oxidants, the results suggest that highly reactive β-ocimenes may play important roles in the thermotolerance of photosynthesis by functioning as effective antioxidants within plants and as efficient atmospheric precursors of secondary organic aerosols. Monoterpene composition may represent a new sensitive ‘thermometer’ of leaf oxidative stress and atmospheric reactivity, and therefore a new tool in future studies of warming impacts on tropical biosphere-atmosphere carbon-cycle feedbacks.« less

Long-term empirical evidence of ocean warming leading to tropicalization of fish communities, increased herbivory, and loss of kelp.

PubMed

Vergés, Adriana; Doropoulos, Christopher; Malcolm, Hamish A; Skye, Mathew; Garcia-Pizá, Marina; Marzinelli, Ezequiel M; Campbell, Alexandra H; Ballesteros, Enric; Hoey, Andrew S; Vila-Concejo, Ana; Bozec, Yves-Marie; Steinberg, Peter D

2016-11-29

Some of the most profound effects of climate change on ecological communities are due to alterations in species interactions rather than direct physiological effects of changing environmental conditions. Empirical evidence of historical changes in species interactions within climate-impacted communities is, however, rare and difficult to obtain. Here, we demonstrate the recent disappearance of key habitat-forming kelp forests from a warming tropical-temperate transition zone in eastern Australia. Using a 10-y video dataset encompassing a 0.6 °C warming period, we show how herbivory increased as kelp gradually declined and then disappeared. Concurrently, fish communities from sites where kelp was originally abundant but subsequently disappeared became increasingly dominated by tropical herbivores. Feeding assays identified two key tropical/subtropical herbivores that consumed transplanted kelp within hours at these sites. There was also a distinct increase in the abundance of fishes that consume epilithic algae, and much higher bite rates by this group at sites without kelp, suggesting a key role for these fishes in maintaining reefs in kelp-free states by removing kelp recruits. Changes in kelp abundance showed no direct relationship to seawater temperatures over the decade and were also unrelated to other measured abiotic factors (nutrients and storms). Our results show that warming-mediated increases in fish herbivory pose a significant threat to kelp-dominated ecosystems in Australia and, potentially, globally.

NorTropical Warm Pool variability and its effects on the climate of Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricaurte Villota, Constanza; Romero-Rodriguez, Deisy; Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo

2015-04-01

Much has been said about the effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on oceanographic and climatic conditions in Colombia, but little is known about the influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP), which includes the gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean and the western tropical North Atlantic. The AWP has been identified by some authors as an area that influences the Earth's climate, associated with anomalous summer rainfall and hurricane activity in the Atlantic. The aim of this study was to understand the variation in the AWP and its effects on the climate of Colombia. An annual average of sea surface temperature (SST) was obtained from the composition of monthly images of the Spectroradiometer Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), with resolution of 4 km, for one area that comprises the marine territory of Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica both the Pacific and the Caribbean, and parts of the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua, for the period between 2007 and 2013. The results suggest that warm pool is not restricted to the Caribbean, but it also covers a strip Pacific bordering Central America and the northern part of the Colombian coast, so it should be called the Nor-Tropical Warm pool (NTWP). Within the NTWP higher SST correspond to a marine area extending about 1 degree north and south of Central and out of the Colombian Caribbean coast. The NTWP also showed large interannual variability, with the years 2008 and 2009 with lower SST in average, while 2010, 2011 and 2013 years with warmer conditions, matching with greater precipitation. It was also noted that during warmer conditions (high amplitude NTWP) the cold tongue from the south Pacific has less penetration on Colombian coast. Finally, the results suggest a strong influence of NTWP in climatic conditions in Colombia.

Lake Challa (Mt. Kilimanjaro) sediments as recorder of present and past seasonality in equatorial East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristen, I.; Wolff, C.; Schettler, G.; Dulski, P.; Naumann, R.; Haug, G. H.; Blaauw, M.; Verschuren, D.

2008-12-01

In discussions on the impact of global warming on moisture balance and human water resources, natural archives of past hydrological variability in tropical regions are attracting increasing attention. The EuroCLIMATE project CHALLACEA studies the sediment archive of Lake Challa, a 4.5 km² and ~94 m deep crater lake located on the lower eastern slope of Mt. Kilimanjaro with the aim to produce a continuous, high-resolution and multi-proxy reconstruction of past temperature and moisture-balance variability in equatorial East Africa over the past 25,000 years. Lake Challa is a freshwater lake with a water budget controlled mostly by sub-surface in- and outflow and lake-surface evaporation. Accordingly, microscopic thin-section investigation of sediment composition reveals an overall dominance of autochthonous components (diatom frustules, calcite, and organic matter). First results from an ongoing sediment trap study point to distinct seasonality in sediment input: calcite and organic matter accumulate during the warm southern hemisphere summer months (November - March), whereas the principal diatom blooms occur during the cool and windy period between June and October. Here we present the results of physical and chemical investigations of the lake water column between September 1999 and November 2007, which document the concomitant seasonal changes in lake mixing/stratification and related element cycling. High-resolution μXRF profiles of these elements in the laminated sediments of Lake Challa thus also show marked seasonal cycles, as well as longer-term variability. In particular, variability in the Mn/Fe ratio along the top 15 cm of the sediment record is interpreted to reflect changes in lake stratification during the last ~100 years. This proxy record is evaluated in comparison with records of historical weather variability in East Africa, and of potentially influencing parameters such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. Eventually

Upper thermal tolerance plasticity in tropical amphibian species from contrasting habitats: implications for warming impact prediction.

PubMed

Simon, Monique Nouailhetas; Ribeiro, Pedro Leite; Navas, Carlos Arturo

2015-02-01

Tropical ectothermic species are currently depicted as more vulnerable to increasing temperatures because of the proximity between their upper thermal limits and environmental temperatures. Yet, the acclimatory capacity of thermal limits has rarely been measured in tropical species, even though they are generally predicted to be smaller than in temperate species. We compared critical thermal maximum (CTmax) and warming tolerance (WT: the difference between CTmax and maximum temperature, Tmax), as well as CTmax acclimatory capacity of toad species from the Atlantic forest (AF) and the Brazilian Caatinga (CAA), a semi-arid habitat with high temperatures. Acclimation temperatures represented the mean temperatures of AF and CAA habitats, making estimates of CTmax and WT more ecologically realistic. CAA species mean CTmax was higher compared to AF species in both acclimation treatments. Clutches within species, as well as between AF and CAA species, differed in CTmax plasticity and we discuss the potential biological meaning of these findings. We did not find a trade-off between absolute CTmax and CTmax plasticity, indicating that species can have both high CTmax and high CTmax plasticity. Although CTmax was highly correlated to Tmax, CTmax plasticity was not related to Tmax or Tmax coefficients of variation. CAA species mean WT was lower than for AF species, but still very high for all species, diverging from other studies with tropical species. This might be partially related to over-estimation of vulnerability due to under-appreciation of realistic acclimation treatments in CTmax estimation. Thus, some tropical species might not be as vulnerable to warming as previously predicted if CTmax is considered as a shifting population parameter. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benthic‐pelagic coupling drives non‐seasonal zooplankton blooms and restructures energy flows in shallow tropical lakes

PubMed Central

Schagerl, Michael; Yasindi, Andrew; Singer, Gabriel; Kaggwa, Mary Nakabungo; Winder, Monika

2016-01-01

Abstract Zooplankton blooms are a frequent phenomenon in tropical systems. However, drivers of bloom formation and the contribution of emerging resting eggs are largely unexplored. We investigated the dynamics and the triggers of rotifer blooms in African soda‐lakes and assessed their impact on other trophic levels. A meta‐analysis of rotifer peak densities including abundances of up to 6 × 105 individuals L−1 demonstrated that rotifer bloom formation was uncoupled from the food environment and the seasonality of climatic conditions. A time series with weekly sampling intervals from Lake Nakuru (Kenya) revealed that intrinsic growth factors (food quality and the physicochemical environment) significantly affected rotifer population fluctuations, but were of minor importance for bloom formation. Instead, rotifer bloom formation was linked to sediment resuspension, a prerequisite for hatching of resting‐eggs. Population growth rates exceed pelagic birth rates and simulations of rotifer dynamics confirmed the quantitative importance of rotifer emergence from the sediment egg‐bank and signifying a decoupling of bloom formation from pelagic reproduction. Rotifer blooms led to a top‐down control of small‐sized algae and facilitated a switch to more grazing‐resistant, filamentous cyanobacteria. This shift in phytoplankton composition cascaded up the food chain and triggered the return of filter‐feeding flamingos. Calculations of consequent changes in the lake's energy budget and export of aquatic primary production to terrestrial ecosystems demonstrated the large potential impact of nonseasonal disturbances on the functioning of shallow tropical lakes. PMID:27587899

Hydrologic responses of a tropical catchment in Thailand and two temperate/cold catchments in north America to global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gan, T.Y.; Ahmad, Z.

The hydrologic impact or sensitivities of three medium-sized catchments to global warming, one of tropical climate in Northern Thailand and two of temperate climate in the Sacramento and San Joaquin River basins of California, were investigated.

Localized Upper Tropospheric Warming During Tropical Depression and Storm Formation Revealed by the NOAA-15 AMSU

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spencer, Roy W.; Braswell, William D.

1999-01-01

The warm core of hurricanes as measured by microwave temperature sounders has been related to various azimuthally averaged measures of hurricane strength by several researchers Unfortunately, the use of these instruments (e.g. the Microwave Sounding Units, MSU) for the routine monitoring of tropical cyclone genesis and intensity has been hampered by poor resolution. The recent launch of the NOAA-15 AMSU represents a significant advance in our ability to monitor subtle atmospheric temperature variations (0.1-0.2 C) at relatively high spatial resolution (50 km) in the presence of clouds. Of particular interest is the possible capability of the AMSU to observe the slight warming associated with depression formation, and the relationship of the spatial characteristics of the warming to the surface pressure and wind field, without azimuthal averaging. In order to present the AMSU data as imagery, we have developed a method for precise limb-correction of all 15 AMSU channels. Through a linear combination of several neighboring channels, we can very closely match the nadir weighting functions of a given AMSU sounding channel with the non-nadir data. It is found that there is discernible, localized upper tropospheric warming associated with depression formation in the Atlantic basin during the 1998 hurricane season. Also, it is found that uncertainty in positioning of tropical cyclone circulation centers can be reduced, as in the example of Hurricane Georges as it approached Cuba. Finally, to explore the potential utility of a future high resolution microwave temperature sounder, we present an analysis of the relationship between the modeled surface wind field and simulated high -resolution AMSU-type measurements, based upon cloud resolving model simulations of hurricane Andrew in 1992.

Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.

2017-12-01

By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that

Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming.

PubMed

Huang, Ping; Lin, I-I; Chou, Chia; Huang, Rong-Hui

2015-05-18

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are hazardous natural disasters. Because TC intensification is significantly controlled by atmosphere and ocean environments, changes in these environments may cause changes in TC intensity. Changes in surface and subsurface ocean conditions can both influence a TC's intensification. Regarding global warming, minimal exploration of the subsurface ocean has been undertaken. Here we investigate future subsurface ocean environment changes projected by 22 state-of-the-art climate models and suggest a suppressive effect of subsurface oceans on the intensification of future TCs. Under global warming, the subsurface vertical temperature profile can be sharpened in important TC regions, which may contribute to a stronger ocean coupling (cooling) effect during the intensification of future TCs. Regarding a TC, future subsurface ocean environments may be more suppressive than the existing subsurface ocean environments. This suppressive effect is not spatially uniform and may be weak in certain local areas.

Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming

PubMed Central

Huang, Ping; Lin, I. -I; Chou, Chia; Huang, Rong-Hui

2015-01-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are hazardous natural disasters. Because TC intensification is significantly controlled by atmosphere and ocean environments, changes in these environments may cause changes in TC intensity. Changes in surface and subsurface ocean conditions can both influence a TC's intensification. Regarding global warming, minimal exploration of the subsurface ocean has been undertaken. Here we investigate future subsurface ocean environment changes projected by 22 state-of-the-art climate models and suggest a suppressive effect of subsurface oceans on the intensification of future TCs. Under global warming, the subsurface vertical temperature profile can be sharpened in important TC regions, which may contribute to a stronger ocean coupling (cooling) effect during the intensification of future TCs. Regarding a TC, future subsurface ocean environments may be more suppressive than the existing subsurface ocean environments. This suppressive effect is not spatially uniform and may be weak in certain local areas. PMID:25982028

Relative roles of differential SST warming, uniform SST warming and land surface warming in determining the Walker circulation changes under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lei; Li, Tim

2017-02-01

Most of CMIP5 models projected a weakened Walker circulation in tropical Pacific, but what causes such change is still an open question. By conducting idealized numerical simulations separating the effects of the spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming, extra land surface warming and differential SST warming, we demonstrate that the weakening of the Walker circulation is attributed to the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon and South America land effects. The effect of the uniform SST warming is through so-called "richest-get-richer" mechanism. In response to a uniform surface warming, the WNP monsoon is enhanced by competing moisture with other large-scale convective branches. The strengthened WNP monsoon further induces surface westerlies in the equatorial western-central Pacific, weakening the Walker circulation. The increase of the greenhouse gases leads to a larger land surface warming than ocean surface. As a result, a greater thermal contrast occurs between American Continent and equatorial Pacific. The so-induced zonal pressure gradient anomaly forces low-level westerly anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and weakens the Walker circulation. The differential SST warming also plays a role in driving low-level westerly anomalies over tropical Pacific. But such an effect involves a positive air-sea feedback that amplifies the weakening of both east-west SST gradient and Pacific trade winds.

Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qigang; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Cao, DanDan; Cheng, Luyao; Hu, Haibo; Sun, Leng; Yao, Ying; Yang, Zhiqi; Gao, Xuxu; Schroeder, Steven R.

2018-01-01

This study investigates observed and modeled contributions of global sea surface temperature (SST) to China winter climate trends in 1960-2014, including increased precipitation, warming through about 1997, and cooling since then. Observations and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations with prescribed historical SST and sea ice show that tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming and increasing rainfall causes diabatic heating that generates a tropospheric wave train with anticyclonic 500-hPa height anomaly centers in the TIO or equatorial western Pacific (TIWP) and northeastern Eurasia (EA) and a cyclonic anomaly over China, referred to as the TIWP-EA wave train. The cyclonic anomaly causes Indochina moisture convergence and southwesterly moist flow that enhances South China precipitation, while the northern anticyclone enhances cold surges, sometimes causing severe ice storms. AMIP simulations show a 1960-1997 China cooling trend by simulating increasing instead of decreasing Arctic 500-hPa heights that move the northern anticyclone into Siberia, but enlarge the cyclonic anomaly so it still simulates realistic China precipitation trend patterns. A separate idealized TIO SST warming simulation simulates the TIWP-EA feature more realistically with correct precipitation patterns and supports the TIWP-EA teleconnection as the primary mechanism for long-term increasing precipitation in South China since 1960. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments simulate a reduced TIO SST warming trend and weak precipitation trends, so the TIWP-EA feature is absent and strong drying is simulated in South China for 1960-1997. These simulations highlight the need for accurately modeled SST to correctly attribute regional climate trends.

Contribution of tropical cyclones to abnormal sea surface temperature warming in the Yellow Sea in December 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Taekyun; Choo, Sung-Ho; Moon, Jae-Hong; Chang, Pil-Hun

2017-12-01

Unusual sea surface temperature (SST) warming occurred over the Yellow Sea (YS) in December 2004. To identify the causes of the abnormal SST warming, we conducted an analysis on atmospheric circulation anomalies induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) and their impacts on upper ocean characteristics using multiple datasets. With the analysis of various datasets, we explored a new aspect of the relationship between TC activity and SST. The results show that there is a significant link between TC activity over the Northwest Pacific (NWP) and SST in the YS. The integrated effect of consecutive TCs activity induces a large-scale atmospheric cyclonic circulation anomaly over the NWP and consequently anomalous easterly winds over the YS and East China Sea. The mechanism of the unusually warm SST in the YS can be explained by considering TCs acting as an important source of Ekman heat transport that results in substantial intrusion of relatively warm surface water into the YS interior. Furthermore, TC-related circulation anomalies contribute to the retention of the resulting warm SST anomalies in the entire YS.

Warm Water Pools of the Western Caribbean and Eastern Tropical Pacific: Their Influence on Intraseasonal Rainfall Regimes and Tropical Storm Activity in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douglas, A. V.; Englehart, P. J.

2007-05-01

A dipole in tropical cyclone development between the Caribbean and the eastern tropical Pacific will be examined relative to its affect on southern Mexican rainfall. With the change over in the AMO and PDO in 1994 and 1998, respectively, tropical storm genesis has been increasing in the Caribbean while declining in the tropical east Pacific. This dipole in tropical cyclone development appears to be related to changes in the pre storm season heat content of the two ocean basins (data Scripps Institution of Oceanography). Preliminary work indicates that if the Caribbean is warmer than the Pacific by late May the dipole will be accentuated with a pronounced decrease in tropical storms in the east Pacific with an early and prolonged season in the Caribbean. In recent years there appears to have been an increase in the intensity and duration of midsummer drought (Canicula) in Mexico associated with changes in the PDO and AMO. These long term ocean oscillations appear to control the dipole in the strength of the Caribbean and East Pacific warm pools. Mid summer drought is a normal occurrence in much of Mexico and Central America, but the intensified droughts of the recent period have stressed the agricultural community of the region. Based on preliminary work, it appears that the recent increased frequency of midsummer drought can be linked to a shift in the warmest pool from the East Pacific to the Caribbean.

Distributions of Heterocyst Glycolipids in Settling Particulate Matter Record Ecological and Environmental Parameters in a Tropical Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meegan Kumar, D.; Hopmans, E.; S Sinninghe Damsté, J.; Schouten, S.; Bauersachs, T.; Werne, J. P.

2017-12-01

Temperature is a critical component of paleoenvironmental reconstructions, yet it is notoriously difficult to measure in terrestrial archives. Presented here is an investigation of unique glycolipids produced by heterocystous cyanobacteria, so-called heterocyst glycolipids (HGs), in the water column of Lake Malawi (East Africa). The goal of the study is to evaluate the potential of HGs to function as a paleotemperature proxy in tropical lacustrine environments. HGs in Lake Malawi were extracted from settling particulate matter (SPM) collected at bi-monthly intervals from 2011 - 2013. Sediment traps were moored in the metalimnion of both the north and south basins of the lake in order to evaluate the spatial and the temporal trends in lipid production and export. This study is the first to analyze HGs in SPM and contains the longest time-series of HG production in a natural environment to date. HGs are consistently present throughout the three-year study period, but maximum fluxes occur annually in December, coincident with the timing of cyanobacterial blooms in the lake. HGs in SPM appear to be sourced from living cyanobacteria populations, indicating rapid export of the lipids through the water column. Temperatures reconstructed with published HG-based indices, which are derived from the relative abundances of HG diols and triols to HG keto-(di)ols, do not accurately reflect the seasonal variability in measured surface water temperatures. Rather, the production of C28 HG keto-ols appears to be related to the timing of heterocyst differentiation. Heterocystous cyanobacteria in Lake Malawi may instead respond to growth temperatures by elongating the alkyl side chain of HG diols, as indicated by increases in the abundance of the C28 HG diol relative to the C26 HG diol with warmer surface water temperatures. Distributions of HGs thus may indeed provide a novel tool for paleotemperature reconstructions in tropical lakes.

Drifting algae and fish: Implications of tropical Sargassum invasion due to ocean warming in western Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamasaki, Mami; Aono, Mikina; Ogawa, Naoto; Tanaka, Koichiro; Imoto, Zenji; Nakamura, Yohei

2014-06-01

Evidence is accumulating that the invasion and extinction of habitat-forming seaweed species alters coastal community structure and ecological services, but their effects on the pelagic environment have been largely ignored. Thus, we examined the seasonal occurrence patterns of indigenous temperate and invasive tropical drifting algae and associated fish species every month for 2 years (2009-2011) in western Japan (Tosa Bay), where a rapid shift from temperate to tropical Sargassum species has been occurring in the coastal area since the late 1980s due to rising seawater temperatures. Of the 19 Sargassum species (31.6%) in drifting algae, we found that six were tropical species, whereas a study in the early 1980s found only one tropical species among 12 species (8.3%), thereby suggesting an increase in the proportion of tropical Sargassum species in drifting algae during the last 30 years. Drifting temperate algae were abundantly present from late winter to summer, whereas tropical algal clumps occurred primarily during summer. In the warm season, fish assemblages did not differ significantly between drifting temperate and tropical algae, suggesting the low host-algal specificity of most fishes. We also found that yellowtail juveniles frequently aggregated with drifting temperate algae from late winter to spring when drifting tropical algae were unavailable. Local fishermen collect these juveniles for use as aquaculture seed stock; therefore, the occurrence of drifting temperate algae in early spring is important for local fisheries. These results suggest that the further extinction of temperate Sargassum spp. may have negative impacts on the pelagic ecosystem and associated regional fisheries.

The response of heterotrophic activity and carbon cycling to nitrogen additions and warming in two tropical soils

Treesearch

Daniela F. Cusack; Margaret S. Torn; William H. McDowell; Whendee L. Silver

2010-01-01

Nitrogen (N) deposition is projected to increase significantly in tropical regions in the coming decades, where changes in climate are also expected. Additional N and warming each have the potential to alter soil carbon (C) storage via changes in microbial activity and decomposition, but little is known about the combined effects of these global change factors in...

Tropical Warm Semi-Arid Regions Expanding Over Temperate Latitudes In The Projected 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajaud, A.; de Noblet, N. I.

2015-12-01

Two billion people today live in drylands, where extreme climatic conditions prevail, and natural resources are limited. Drylands are expected to expand under several scenarios of climatic change. However, relevant adaptation strategies need to account for the aridity level: it conditions the equilibrium tree-cover density, ranging from deserts (hyper-arid) to dense savannas (sub-humid). Here we focus on the evolution of climatically defined warm semi-arid areas, where low-tree density covers can be maintained. We study the global repartition of these regions in the future and the bioclimatic shifts involved. We adopted a bioclimatological approach based on the Köppen climate classification. The warm semi-arid class is characterized by mean annual temperatures over 18°C and a rainfall-limitation criterion. A multi-model ensemble of CMIP5 projections for three representative concentration pathways was selected to analyze future conditions. The classification was first applied to the start, middle and end of the 20th and 21st centuries, in order to localize past and future warm semi-arid regions. Then, time-series for the classification were built to characterize trends and variability in the evolution of those regions. According to the CRU datasets, global expansion of the warm semi-arid area has already started (~+13%), following the global warming trend since the 1900s. This will continue according to all projections, most significantly so outside the tropical belt. Under the "business as usual" scenario, the global warm semi-arid area will increase by 30% and expand 12° poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the multi-model mean. Drying drives the conversion from equatorial sub-humid conditions. Beyond 30° of latitude, cold semi-arid conditions become warm semi-arid through warming, and temperate conditions through combined warming and drying processes. Those various transitions may have drastic but also very distinct ecological and sociological

Influence of global warming on western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensities during 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Nam-Young; Yang, Se-Hwan; Elsner, James

2017-04-01

The climate of 2015 was characterized by a strong El Niño, global warmth, and record-setting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity for western North Pacific typhoons. In this study, the highest TC intensity in 32 years (1984-2015) is shown to be a consequence of above normal TC activity—following natural internal variation—and greater efficiency of intensity. The efficiency of intensity (EINT) is termed the 'blasting' effect and refers to typhoon intensification at the expense of occurrence. Statistical models show that the EINT is mostly due to the anomalous warmth in the environment as indicated by global mean sea-surface temperature. In comparison, the EINT due to El Niño is negligible. This implies that the record-setting intensity of 2015 might not have occurred without environmental warming and suggests that a year with even greater TC intensity is possible in the near future when above normal activity coincides with another record EINT due to continuous warming.

Multiple climate regimes in an idealized lake-ice-atmosphere model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyama, Noriyuki; Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul

2018-01-01

In recent decades, the Laurentian Great Lakes have undergone rapid surface warming with the summertime trends substantially exceeding the warming rates of surrounding land. Warming of the deepest (Lake Superior) was the strongest, and that of the shallowest (Lake Erie)—the weakest of all lakes. To investigate the dynamics of accelerated lake warming, we considered single-column and multi-column thermodynamic lake-ice models coupled to an idealized two-layer atmosphere. The variable temperature of the upper atmospheric layer—a proxy for the large-scale atmospheric forcing—consisted, in the most general case, of a linear trend mimicking the global warming and atmospheric interannual variability, both on top of the prescribed seasonal cycle of the upper-air temperature. The atmospheric boundary layer of the coupled model exchanged heat with the lake and exhibited lateral diffusive heat transports between the adjacent atmospheric columns. In simpler single-column models, we find that, for a certain range of periodic atmospheric forcing, each lake possesses two stable equilibrium seasonal cycles, which we call "regimes"—with and without lake-ice occurrence in winter and with corresponding cold and warm temperatures in the following summer, respectively, all under an identical seasonally varying external forcing. Deeper lakes exhibit larger differences in their summertime surface water temperature between the warm and cold regimes, due to their larger thermal and dynamical inertia. The regime behavior of multi-column coupled models is similar but more complex, and in some cases, they admit more than two stable equilibrium seasonal cycles, with varying degrees of wintertime ice-cover. The simulated lake response to climate change in the presence of the atmospheric noise rationalizes the observed accelerated warming of the lakes, the correlation between wintertime ice cover and next summer's lake-surface temperature, as well as higher warming trends of the

Tropical North Atlantic subsurface warming events as a fingerprint for AMOC variability during Marine Isotope Stage 3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Andrew O.; Schmidt, Matthew W.; Chang, Ping

2015-11-01

The role of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as the driver of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) variability that characterized Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) has long been hypothesized. Although there is ample proxy evidence suggesting that DO events were robust features of glacial climate, there is little data supporting a link with AMOC. Recently, modeling studies and subsurface temperature reconstructions have suggested that subsurface warming across the tropical North Atlantic can be used to fingerprint a weakened AMOC during the deglacial because a reduction in the strength of the western boundary current allows warm salinity maximum water of the subtropical gyre to enter the deep tropics. To determine if AMOC variability played a role during the DO cycles of MIS 3, we present new, high-resolution Mg/Ca and δ18O records spanning 24-52 kyr from the near-surface dwelling planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber and the lower thermocline dwelling planktonic foraminifera Globorotalia truncatulinoides in Southern Caribbean core VM12-107 (11.33°N, 66.63°W, 1079 m depth). Our subsurface Mg/Ca record reveals abrupt increases in Mg/Ca ratios (the largest equal to a 4°C warming) during the interstadial-stadial transition of most DO events during this period. This change is consistent with reconstructions of subsurface warming events associated with cold events across the deglacial using the same core. Additionally, our data support the conclusion reached by a recently published study from the Florida Straits that AMOC did not undergo significant reductions during Heinrich events 2 and 3. This record presents some of the first high-resolution marine sediment derived evidence for variable AMOC during MIS 3.

TRMM-observed summer warm rain over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean: Characteristics and regional differences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Fang; Fu, Yunfei

2016-06-01

Based on the merged measurements from the TRMM Precipitation Radar and Visible and Infrared Scanner, refined characteristics (intensity, frequency, vertical structure, and diurnal variation) and regional differences of the warm rain over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40ffiS-40ffiN, 120ffiE-70ffiW) in boreal summer are investigated for the period 1998-2012. The results reveal that three warm rain types (phased, pure, and mixed) exist over these regions. The phased warm rain, which occurs during the developing or declining stage of precipitation weather systems, is located over the central to western Intertropical Convergence Zone, South Pacific Convergence Zone, and Northwest Pacific. Its occurrence frequency peaks at midnight and minimizes during daytime with a 5.5-km maximum echo top. The frequency of this warm rain type is about 2.2%, and it contributes to 40% of the regional total rainfall. The pure warm rain is characterized by typical stable precipitation with an echo top lower than 4 km, and mostly occurs in Southeast Pacific. Although its frequency is less than 1.3%, this type of warm rain accounts for 95% of the regional total rainfall. Its occurrence peaks before dawn and it usually disappears in the afternoon. For the mixed warm rain, some may develop into deep convective precipitation, while most are similar to those of the pure type. The mixed warm rain is mainly located over the ocean east of Hawaii. Its frequency is 1.2%, but this type of warm rain could contribute to 80% of the regional total rainfall. The results also uncover that the mixed and pure types occur over the regions where SST ranges from 295 to 299 K, accompanied by relatively strong downdrafts at 500 hPa. Both the mixed and pure warm rains happen in a more unstable atmosphere, compared with the phased warm rain.

Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño: role of southeast tropical Indian Ocean warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zesheng; Du, Yan; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Wang, Chunzai

2018-06-01

This study investigates the influence of southeast tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming on Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño by using observations and model experiments. The results show that the SETIO SST warming in spring 2016 enhanced local convection and forced a "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern in the lower troposphere. The "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean consists of anomalous westerly flow south of the equator and anomalous easterly flow north of the equator. The anomalous easterly flow then extended eastward into the western North Pacific (WNP) and facilitates the development or the maintenance of an anomalous anticyclone over the South China Sea (SCS). Correspondingly, the eastern part of the Bay of Bengal, the SCS and the WNP suffered less rainfall. Such precipitation features and the associated "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern shifted northward about five latitudes in summer 2016. Additionally, the SETIO warming can induce local meridional circulation anomalies, which directly affect Indo-Pacific climate. Numerical model experiments further confirm that the SETIO SST warming plays an important role in modulating Indo-Pacific climate.

Climatic warming and overgrazing induced the high concentration of organic matter in Lake Hulun, a large shallow eutrophic steppe lake in northern China.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaofeng; Chuai, Xiaoming; Yang, Liuyan; Zhao, Huiying

2012-08-01

An abnormally high concentration of organic matter (OM) in Lake Hulun, a large shallow eutrophic lake located in the sparsely populated Hulun Buir Steppe, was observed in a field investigation. Little was known about the origin of the OM. To identify the source of the OM in Lake Hulun, the carbon/nitrogen (C/N) ratio, natural abundance of stable isotope and three dimensional excitation emission matrix (3DEEM) fluorescence spectroscopy techniques were employed. Furthermore, a cyanobacterial incubation and degradation experiment was conducted in the laboratory to quantify the contribution of algae to dissolved organic matter (DOM) in Lake Hulun. C/N, the stable carbon isotope (δ(13)C) values typical of C3 plant debris in particulate organic matter (POM) and the fluorescence indices of DOM indicate that most of the OM in Lake Hulun is of terrigenous origin. It was deduced that only about 10.2% and 7.3% of DOM were contributed by algae in September and January, respectively, according to the linear correlation between the concentrations of algae-derived DOM and the fluorescence intensities of tyrosine-like matter. According to the stockbreeding development and climate change in Hunlun Buir Steppe, we deduced that the destruction of the grassland ecosystem by overgrazing in specific locations and trends in climatic warming and drying were the main factors causing the increase of OM and nutrient concentrations in Lake Hulun. This result highlights the need to pay more attention to the inputs of terrigenous organic matter to the lakes in northern China. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Will Outer Tropical Cyclone Size Change due to Anthropogenic Warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schenkel, B. A.; Lin, N.; Chavas, D. R.; Vecchi, G. A.; Knutson, T. R.; Oppenheimer, M.

2017-12-01

Prior research has shown significant interbasin and intrabasin variability in outer tropical cyclone (TC) size. Moreover, outer TC size has even been shown to vary substantially over the lifetime of the majority of TCs. However, the factors responsible for both setting initial outer TC size and determining its evolution throughout the TC lifetime remain uncertain. Given these gaps in our physical understanding, there remains uncertainty in how outer TC size will change, if at all, due to anthropogenic warming. The present study seeks to quantify whether outer TC size will change significantly in response to anthropogenic warming using data from a high-resolution global climate model and a regional hurricane model. Similar to prior work, the outer TC size metric used in this study is the radius in which the azimuthal-mean surface azimuthal wind equals 8 m/s. The initial results from the high-resolution global climate model data suggest that the distribution of outer TC size shifts significantly towards larger values in each global TC basin during future climates, as revealed by 1) statistically significant increase of the median outer TC size by 5-10% (p<0.05) according to a 1,000-sample bootstrap resampling approach with replacement and 2) statistically significant differences between distributions of outer TC size from current and future climate simulations as shown using two-sample Kolmogorov Smirnov testing (p<<0.01). Additional analysis of the high-resolution global climate model data reveals that outer TC size does not uniformly increase within each basin in future climates, but rather shows substantial locational dependence. Future work will incorporate the regional mesoscale hurricane model data to help focus on identifying the source of the spatial variability in outer TC size increases within each basin during future climates and, more importantly, why outer TC size changes in response to anthropogenic warming.

Response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to El Niño versus global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Fukai; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian

Climate models project an El Niño-like SST response in the tropical Pacific Ocean to global warming (GW). By employing the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component, Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2), this study investigates the similarity and difference of formation mechanism for the changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean under El Niño and GW. Results show that, despite sharing some similarities between the two scenarios, there are many significant distinctions between GW and El Niño: 1) the phase locking of the seasonal cycle reduction is more notable under GW compared withmore » El Niño, implying more extreme El Niño events in the future; 2) in contrast to the penetration of the equatorial subsurface temperature anomaly that appears to propagate in the form of an oceanic equatorial upwelling Kelvin wave during El Niño, the GW-induced subsurface temperature anomaly manifest in the form of off-equatorial upwelling Rossby waves; 3) while significant across-equator northward heat transport (NHT) is induced by the wind stress anomalies associated with El Niño, little NHT is found at the equator due to a symmetric change in the shallow meridional overturning circulation that appears to be weakened in both North and South Pacific under GW; and 4) the maintaining mechanisms for the eastern equatorial Pacific warming are also substantially different.« less

Fossil Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera) as Paleothermometers in the African Tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eggermont, H.; Heiri, O.; Russell, J.; Vuille, M.; Audenaert, L.; Klaassen, G.; Verschuren, D.

2008-12-01

Reconstruction of Africa's temperature history from natural climate archives such as lake sediments is essential to amend the current scarcity of information on natural tropical climate and ecosystem variability. Chironomids are well-established paleothermometers in north-temperate/boreal regions, but their potential in tropical lakes has never before been assessed. We surveyed sub-fossil chironomid assemblages in surface sediments from 65 lakes and permanent pools in southwestern Uganda and central/southern Kenya, spanning elevations between 489 and 4575 m asl. Using various subsets of lakes and corresponding Surface-Water Temperatures (SWTemp) and Mean Annual Air Temperatures (MATemp), we developed a series of inference models for quantitative paleotemperature reconstruction. Models using both low-, mid- and high-elevation sites suffer to some extent from the small number of samples between 2500 and 3500 m asl, and from the presence of ecologically distinct but morphologically indistinguishable taxa. Models confined to mountain sites produce poorer error statistics, but are less prone to the biogeographical and taxonomic complexities associated with long climatic gradients. Overall, error statistics compare favourably with those of inference models developed for temperate regions, indicating that fossil assemblages of African Chironomidae can be valuable indicators of past temperature change. We subsequently used these models to evaluate whether high-elevation lakes in the Rwenzori Mountains (>3000 m asl) have been impacted by climate warming in recent centuries by comparing temperatures inferred from chironomid assemblages in modern sediments with those derived from chironomid assemblages in sediments deposited within or briefly after the Little Ice Age (1270-1850 AD). Depending on the model used, between 44 and 63% of the 16 lakes studied indicate significantly warmer temperatures in recent times (corresponding with an average MATemp rise of 0.88 ° C, and

Understanding the effect of an excessive cold tongue bias on projecting the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ying, Jun; Huang, Ping; Lian, Tao; Tan, Hongjian

2018-05-01

An excessive cold tongue is a common bias among current climate models, and considered an important source of bias in projections of tropical Pacific climate change under global warming. Specifically, the excessive cold tongue bias is closely related to the tropical Pacific SST warming (TPSW) pattern. In this study, we reveal that two processes are the critical mechanisms by which the excessive cold tongue bias influences the projection of the TPSW pattern, based on 32 models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP5). On the one hand, by assuming that the shortwave (SW) radiation to SST feedback is linearly correlated to the cold tongue SST, the excessive cold tongue bias can induce an overly weak negative SW-SST feedback in the central Pacific, which can lead to a positive SST warming bias in the central to western Pacific (around 150°E-140°W). Moreover, the overly weak local atmospheric dynamics response to SST is a key process of the overly weak SW-SST feedback, compared with the cloud response to atmospheric dynamics and the SW radiation response to cloud. On the other hand, the overly strong ocean zonal overturning circulation associated with the excessive cold tongue bias results in an overestimation of the ocean dynamical thermostat effect, with enhanced ocean stratification under global warming, leading to a negative SST warming bias in the central and eastern Pacific (around 170°W-120°W). These two processes jointly form a positive SST warming bias in the western Pacific, contributing to a La Niña-like warming bias. Therefore, we suggest a more realistic climatological cold tongue SST is needed for a more reliable projection of the TPSW pattern.

Abrupt stop of deep water turnover with lake warming: Drastic consequences for algal primary producers.

PubMed

Yankova, Yana; Neuenschwander, Stefan; Köster, Oliver; Posch, Thomas

2017-10-23

After strong fertilization in the 20 th century, many deep lakes in Central Europe are again nutrient poor due to long-lasting restoration (re-oligotrophication). In line with reduced phosphorus and nitrogen loadings, total organismic productivity decreased and lakes have now historically low nutrient and biomass concentrations. This caused speculations that restoration was overdone and intended fertilizations are needed to ensure ecological functionality. Here we show that recent re-oligotrophication processes indeed accelerated, however caused by lake warming. Rising air temperatures strengthen thermal stabilization of water columns which prevents thorough turnover (holomixis). Reduced mixis impedes down-welling of oxygen rich epilimnetic (surface) and up-welling of phosphorus and nitrogen rich hypolimnetic (deep) water. However, nutrient inputs are essential for algal spring blooms acting as boost for annual food web successions. We show that repeated lack (since 1977) and complete stop (since 2013) of holomixis caused drastic epilimnetic phosphorus depletions and an absence of phytoplankton spring blooms in Lake Zurich (Switzerland). By simulating holomixis in experiments, we could induce significant vernal algal blooms, confirming that there would be sufficient hypolimnetic phosphorus which presently accumulates due to reduced export. Thus, intended fertilizations are highly questionable, as hypolimnetic nutrients will become available during future natural or artificial turnovers.

Gross mismatch between thermal tolerances and environmental temperatures in a tropical freshwater snail: climate warming and evolutionary implications.

PubMed

Polgar, Gianluca; Khang, Tsung Fei; Chua, Teddy; Marshall, David J

2015-01-01

The relationship between acute thermal tolerance and habitat temperature in ectotherm animals informs about their thermal adaptation and is used to assess thermal safety margins and sensitivity to climate warming. We studied this relationship in an equatorial freshwater snail (Clea nigricans), belonging to a predominantly marine gastropod lineage (Neogastropoda, Buccinidae). We found that tolerance of heating and cooling exceeded average daily maximum and minimum temperatures, by roughly 20°C in each case. Because habitat temperature is generally assumed to be the main selective factor acting on the fundamental thermal niche, the discordance between thermal tolerance and environmental temperature implies trait conservation following 'in situ' environmental change, or following novel colonisation of a thermally less-variable habitat. Whereas heat tolerance could relate to an historical association with the thermally variable and extreme marine intertidal fringe zone, cold tolerance could associate with either an ancestral life at higher latitudes, or represent adaptation to cooler, higher-altitudinal, tropical lotic systems. The broad upper thermal safety margin (difference between heat tolerance and maximum environmental temperature) observed in this snail is grossly incompatible with the very narrow safety margins typically found in most terrestrial tropical ectotherms (insects and lizards), and hence with the emerging prediction that tropical ectotherms, are especially vulnerable to environmental warming. A more comprehensive understanding of climatic vulnerability of animal ectotherms thus requires greater consideration of taxonomic diversity, ecological transition and evolutionary history. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term empirical evidence of ocean warming leading to tropicalization of fish communities, increased herbivory, and loss of kelp

PubMed Central

Vergés, Adriana; Doropoulos, Christopher; Malcolm, Hamish A.; Skye, Mathew; Garcia-Pizá, Marina; Marzinelli, Ezequiel M.; Campbell, Alexandra H.; Ballesteros, Enric; Hoey, Andrew S.; Vila-Concejo, Ana; Steinberg, Peter D.

2016-01-01

Some of the most profound effects of climate change on ecological communities are due to alterations in species interactions rather than direct physiological effects of changing environmental conditions. Empirical evidence of historical changes in species interactions within climate-impacted communities is, however, rare and difficult to obtain. Here, we demonstrate the recent disappearance of key habitat-forming kelp forests from a warming tropical–temperate transition zone in eastern Australia. Using a 10-y video dataset encompassing a 0.6 °C warming period, we show how herbivory increased as kelp gradually declined and then disappeared. Concurrently, fish communities from sites where kelp was originally abundant but subsequently disappeared became increasingly dominated by tropical herbivores. Feeding assays identified two key tropical/subtropical herbivores that consumed transplanted kelp within hours at these sites. There was also a distinct increase in the abundance of fishes that consume epilithic algae, and much higher bite rates by this group at sites without kelp, suggesting a key role for these fishes in maintaining reefs in kelp-free states by removing kelp recruits. Changes in kelp abundance showed no direct relationship to seawater temperatures over the decade and were also unrelated to other measured abiotic factors (nutrients and storms). Our results show that warming-mediated increases in fish herbivory pose a significant threat to kelp-dominated ecosystems in Australia and, potentially, globally. PMID:27849585

Assessment of predictive models for chlorophyll-a concentration of a tropical lake

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background This study assesses four predictive ecological models; Fuzzy Logic (FL), Recurrent Artificial Neural Network (RANN), Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithm (HEA) and multiple linear regressions (MLR) to forecast chlorophyll- a concentration using limnological data from 2001 through 2004 of unstratified shallow, oligotrophic to mesotrophic tropical Putrajaya Lake (Malaysia). Performances of the models are assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (r), and Area under the Receiving Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Chlorophyll-a have been used to estimate algal biomass in aquatic ecosystem as it is common in most algae. Algal biomass indicates of the trophic status of a water body. Chlorophyll- a therefore, is an effective indicator for monitoring eutrophication which is a common problem of lakes and reservoirs all over the world. Assessments of these predictive models are necessary towards developing a reliable algorithm to estimate chlorophyll- a concentration for eutrophication management of tropical lakes. Results Same data set was used for models development and the data was divided into two sets; training and testing to avoid biasness in results. FL and RANN models were developed using parameters selected through sensitivity analysis. The selected variables were water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen and Secchi depth. Dissolved oxygen, selected through stepwise procedure, was used to develop the MLR model. HEA model used parameters selected using genetic algorithm (GA). The selected parameters were pH, Secchi depth, dissolved oxygen and nitrate nitrogen. RMSE, r, and AUC values for MLR model were (4.60, 0.5, and 0.76), FL model were (4.49, 0.6, and 0.84), RANN model were (4.28, 0.7, and 0.79) and HEA model were (4.27, 0.7, and 0.82) respectively. Performance inconsistencies between four models in terms of performance criteria in this study resulted from the methodology used in measuring

Emerging Glacial Lakes in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru: A Case Study at Arteson Glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chisolm, R. E.; Mckinney, D. C.; Gomez, J.; Voss, K.

2012-12-01

Tropical glaciers are an essential component of the water resources systems in the mountainous regions where they are located, and a warming climate has resulted in the accelerated retreat of Andean glaciers in recent decades. The shrinkage of Andean glaciers influences the flood risk for communities living downstream as new glacial lakes have begun to form at the termini of some glaciers. As these lakes continue to grow in area and volume, they pose an increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Ice thickness measurements have been a key missing link in studying the tropical glaciers in Peru and how climate change is likely to impact glacial melt and the growth of glacial lakes. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) has rarely been applied to glaciers in Peru to measure ice thickness, and these measurements can tell us a lot about how a warming climate will affect glacier mass balance. This study presents GPR data taken in July 2012 at the Arteson glacier in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. A new lake has begun to form at the terminus of the Arteson glacier, and this lake has key features, including overhanging ice and loose rock likely to create landslides, that could trigger a catastrophic GLOF if the lake continues to grow. This new lake is part of a series of three lakes that have formed below the Arteson glacier. The two lower lakes, Artesonraju and Paron, are much larger so that if there were an avalanche or landslide into the new lake below Arteson glacier, the impact could potentially be more catastrophic than a GLOF from one single lake. Estimates of how the lake mass balance is likely to evolve due to the retreating glacier are key to assessing the flood risk from this dynamic three-lake system. Because the glacier mass balance and lake mass balance are closely linked, the ice thickness measurements and measurements of the bed slope of the Arteson glacier and underlying bedrock give us a clue to how the lake is likely to evolve. GPR measurements of

Tropical Glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fountain, Andrew

The term "tropical glacier" calls to mind balmy nights and palm trees on one hand and cold, blue ice on the other. Certainly author Gabriel Garcia Marqez exploited this contrast in One Hundred Years of Solitude. We know that tropical fish live in warm, Sun-kissed waters and tropical plants provide lush, dense foliage populated by colorful tropical birds. So how do tropical glaciers fit into this scene? Like glaciers everywhere, tropical glaciers form where mass accumulation—usually winter snow—exceeds mass loss, which is generally summer melt. Thus, tropical glaciers exist at high elevations where precipitation can occur as snowfall exceeds melt and sublimation losses, such as the Rwenzori Mountains in east Africa and the Maoke Range of Irian Jaya.

Atlantic-induced pan-tropical climate change over the past three decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xichen; Xie, Shang-Ping; Gille, Sarah T.; Yoo, Changhyun

2016-03-01

During the past three decades, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) has shown dipole-like trends, with warming over the tropical Atlantic and Indo-western Pacific but cooling over the eastern Pacific. Competing hypotheses relate this cooling, identified as a driver of the global warming hiatus, to the warming trends in either the Atlantic or Indian Ocean. However, the mechanisms, the relative importance and the interactions between these teleconnections remain unclear. Using a state-of-the-art climate model, we show that the Atlantic plays a key role in initiating the tropical-wide teleconnection, and the Atlantic-induced anomalies contribute ~55-75% of the tropical SST and circulation changes during the satellite era. The Atlantic warming drives easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific as Kelvin waves and westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific as Rossby waves. The wind changes induce an Indo-western Pacific warming through the wind-evaporation-SST effect, and this warming intensifies the La Niña-type response in the tropical Pacific by enhancing the easterly trade winds and through the Bjerknes ocean dynamical processes. The teleconnection develops into a tropical-wide SST dipole pattern. This mechanism, supported by observations and a hierarchy of climate models, reveals that the tropical ocean basins are more tightly connected than previously thought.

Out of the tropics: the Pacific, Great Basin lakes, and late Pleistocene water cycle in the western United States.

PubMed

Lyle, Mitchell; Heusser, Linda; Ravelo, Christina; Yamamoto, Masanobu; Barron, John; Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Herbert, Timothy; Andreasen, Dyke

2012-09-28

The water cycle in the western United States changed dramatically over glacial cycles. In the past 20,000 years, higher precipitation caused desert lakes to form which have since dried out. Higher glacial precipitation has been hypothesized to result from a southward shift of Pacific winter storm tracks. We compared Pacific Ocean data to lake levels from the interior west and found that Great Basin lake high stands are older than coastal wet periods at the same latitude. Westerly storms were not the source of high precipitation. Instead, air masses from the tropical Pacific were transported northward, bringing more precipitation into the Great Basin when coastal California was still dry. The changing climate during the deglaciation altered precipitation source regions and strongly affected the regional water cycle.

Out of the tropics: the Pacific, Great Basin lakes, and late Pleistocene water cycle in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyle, Mitchell; Heusser, Linda; Ravelo, Christina; Yamamoto, Masanobu; Barron, John; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Herbert, Timothy; Andreasen, Dyke

2012-01-01

The water cycle in the western U.S. changed dramatically over glacial cycles. In the last 20,000 years, higher precipitation caused desert lakes to form which have since dried out. Higher glacial precipitation is hypothesized to result from a southward shift of Pacific winter storm tracks. We compared Pacific Ocean data to lake levels from the interior west and found that Great Basin lake high stands are older than coastal wet periods at the same latitude. Westerly storms were not the source of high precipitation. Instead, air masses from the tropical Pacific were transported northward, bringing more precipitation into the Great Basin when coastal California was still dry. The changing climate during the deglaciation altered precipitation source regions and strongly affected the regional water cycle.

Future volcanic lake research: revealing secrets from poorly studied lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouwet, D.; Tassi, F.; Mora-Amador, R. A.

2012-04-01

Volcanic lake research boosted after the 1986 Lake Nyos lethal gas burst, a limnic rather than volcanic event. This led to the formation of the IAVCEI-Commission on Volcanic Lakes, which grew out into a multi-disciplinary scientific community since the 1990's. At Lake Nyos, a degassing pipe is functional since 2001, and two additional pipes were added in 2011, aimed to prevent further limnic eruption events. There are between 150 and 200 volcanic lakes on Earth. Some acidic crater lakes topping active magmatic-hydrothermal systems are monitored continuously or discontinuously. Such detailed studies have shown their usefulness in volcanic surveillance (e.g. Ruapehu, Yugama-Kusatsu-Shiran, Poás). Others are "Nyos-type" lakes, with possible gas accumulation in bottom waters and thus potentially hazardous. "Nyos-type" lakes tend to remain stably stratified in tropical and sub-tropical climates (meromictic), leading to long-term gas build-up and thus higher potential risk. In temperate climates, such lakes tend to turn over in winter (monomictic), and thus liberating its gas charge yearly. We line out research strategies for the different types of lakes. We believe a complementary, multi-disciplinary approach (geochemistry, geophysics, limnology, biology, statistics, etc.) will lead to new insights and ideas, which can be the base for future following-up and monitoring. After 25 years of pioneering studies on rather few lakes, the scientific community should be challenged to study the many poorly studied volcanic lakes, in order to better constrain the related hazard, based on probabilistic approaches.

Coherent monsoonal changes in the northern tropics revealed by Chadian lakes (L. Chad and Yoa) sedimentary archives during the African Humid Period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sylvestre, Florence; Kroepelin, Stefan; Pierre, Deschamps; Christine, Cocquyt; Nicolas, Waldmann; Kazuyo, Tachikawa; Amaral Paula, Do; Doriane, Delanghe; Guillaume, Jouve; Edouard, Bard; Camille, Bouchez; Jean-Claude, Doumnang; Jean-Charles, Mazur; Martin, Melles; Guillemette, Menot; Frauke, Rostek; Nicolas, Thouveny; Volkner, Wennrich

2016-04-01

In northern African tropics, it is now well established that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was extremely dry followed by a wetter Holocene. Numerous palaeolake records reveal a fairly consistent pattern of a moister early Holocene resulting in a green Sahara followed by the onset of aridification about 4000 years ago. These palaeoenvironmental conditions are deciphered from several continental records distributed over the sub-Saharan zone and including diverse environments. However, pronounced differences in the timing and amplitude of these moisture changes inferred from sedimentary records point to both regional climatic variability change and site-specific influences of local topographic-hydrogeological factors which biased the evolution of water balance reconstructed from individual lacustrine archives. Here we present hydrological reconstructions from Chadian lakes, i.e. Lake Chad (c. 13°N) and Lake Yoa (19°N). Because of their location, both records allow to reconstruct lake level fluctuations and environmental changes according to a gradient from Sahelian to Saharan latitudes. Whereas Lake Chad is considered as a good sensor of climatic changes because of its large drainage basin covering 610,000 km2 in the Sudanian belt, Lake Yoa logs the northern precipitation changes in the Sahara. Combining sedimentological (laser diffraction grain size) and geochemical (XRF analysis) data associated with bio-indicators proxies (diatoms, pollen), we compare lake-level fluctuations and environmental changes during the last 12,000 years. After the hyperarid Last Glacial Maximum period during which dunes covered the Lake Chad basin, both lake records indicate an onset of more humid conditions between 12.5-11 ka cal BP. These resulted in lacustrine transgressions approaching their maximum extension at c. 10.5 ka cal BP. The lacustrine phase was probably interrupted by a relatively short drying event occurring around 8.2 ka cal BP which is well-defined in Lake Yoa by

Predicted effects of future climate warming on thermal habitat suitability for Lake Sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens, Rafinesque, 1817) in rivers in Wisconsin, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyons, John D.; Stewart, Jana S.

2015-01-01

The Lake Sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens, Rafinesque, 1817) may be threatened by future climate warming. The purpose of this study was to identify river reaches in Wisconsin, USA, where they might be vulnerable to warming water temperatures. In Wisconsin, A. fulvescens is known from 2291 km of large-river habitat that has been fragmented into 48 discrete river-lake networks isolated by impassable dams. Although the exact temperature tolerances are uncertain, water temperatures above 28–30°C are potentially less suitable for this coolwater species. Predictions from 13 downscaled global climate models were input to a lotic water temperature model to estimate amounts of potential thermally less-suitable habitat at present and for 2046–2065. Currently, 341 km (14.9%) of the known habitat are estimated to regularly exceed 28°C for an entire day, but only 6 km (0.3%) to exceed 30°C. In 2046–2065, 685–2164 km (29.9–94.5%) are projected to exceed 28°C and 33–1056 km (1.4–46.1%) to exceed 30°C. Most river-lake networks have cooler segments, large tributaries, or lakes that might provide temporary escape from potentially less suitable temperatures, but 12 short networks in the Lower Fox and Middle Wisconsin rivers totaling 93.6 km are projected to have no potential thermal refugia. One possible adaptation to climate change could be to provide fish passage or translocation so that riverine Lake Sturgeon might have access to more thermally suitable habitats.

Assessing Climate Change Within Lake Champlain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leibensperger, E. M.; Pierce, W.; Mihuc, T.; Myers, L.

2016-12-01

Lake Champlain is experiencing environmental stresses that have caused statistically significant biological, chemical, and physical trends. Such trends have already impacted management strategies within the Lake Champlain basin, which lies within the states of New York and Vermont and province of Quebec. A long-term monitoring program initiated in 1992 has revealed warming of upwards of 0.7°C per decade within certain regions of the lake; much faster than observed local atmospheric warming. Here we analyze the observed lake warming in the context of atmospheric variability and assess its uncertainty given monitoring frequency (biweekly to monthly), variable seasonal and hourly observation timing, and synoptic variability of lake dynamics. To address these issues, we use observations from a June-October 2016 deployment of a data buoy on Lake Champlain containing a 1-meter spaced thermistor chain and surface weather station. These new observations, and reanalysis of intensive monitoring during a campaign in 1993, indicate that synoptic variability of lake thermal structure lowers confidence in trends derived from infrequent observations. However, principal component analysis of lake thermal structure reveals two primary modes of variability that are predictable from atmospheric conditions, presenting an opportunity to improve interpretation of existing and future observations.

Heat-Wave Effects on Oxygen, Nutrients, and Phytoplankton Can Alter Global Warming Potential of Gases Emitted from a Small Shallow Lake.

PubMed

Bartosiewicz, Maciej; Laurion, Isabelle; Clayer, François; Maranger, Roxane

2016-06-21

Increasing air temperatures may result in stronger lake stratification, potentially altering nutrient and biogenic gas cycling. We assessed the impact of climate forcing by comparing the influence of stratification on oxygen, nutrients, and global-warming potential (GWP) of greenhouse gases (the sum of CH4, CO2, and N2O in CO2 equivalents) emitted from a shallow productive lake during an average versus a heat-wave year. Strong stratification during the heat wave was accompanied by an algal bloom and chemically enhanced carbon uptake. Solar energy trapped at the surface created a colder, isolated hypolimnion, resulting in lower ebullition and overall lower GWP during the hotter-than-average year. Furthermore, the dominant CH4 emission pathway shifted from ebullition to diffusion, with CH4 being produced at surprisingly high rates from sediments (1.2-4.1 mmol m(-2) d(-1)). Accumulated gases trapped in the hypolimnion during the heat wave resulted in a peak efflux to the atmosphere during fall overturn when 70% of total emissions were released, with littoral zones acting as a hot spot. The impact of climate warming on the GWP of shallow lakes is a more complex interplay of phytoplankton dynamics, emission pathways, thermal structure, and chemical conditions, as well as seasonal and spatial variability, than previously reported.

Climate Warming and Soil Carbon in Tropical Forests: Insights from an Elevation Gradient in the Peruvian Andes

PubMed Central

Nottingham, Andrew T.; Whitaker, Jeanette; Turner, Benjamin L.; Salinas, Norma; Zimmermann, Michael; Malhi, Yadvinder; Meir, Patrick

2015-01-01

The temperature sensitivity of soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition in tropical forests will influence future climate. Studies of a 3.5-kilometer elevation gradient in the Peruvian Andes, including short-term translocation experiments and the examination of the long-term adaptation of biota to local thermal and edaphic conditions, have revealed several factors that may regulate this sensitivity. Collectively this work suggests that, in the absence of a moisture constraint, the temperature sensitivity of decomposition is regulated by the chemical composition of plant debris (litter) and both the physical and chemical composition of preexisting SOM: higher temperature sensitivities are found in litter or SOM that is more chemically complex and in SOM that is less occluded within aggregates. In addition, the temperature sensitivity of SOM in tropical montane forests may be larger than previously recognized because of the presence of “cold-adapted” and nitrogen-limited microbial decomposers and the possible future alterations in plant and microbial communities associated with warming. Studies along elevation transects, such as those reviewed here, can reveal factors that will regulate the temperature sensitivity of SOM. They can also complement and guide in situ soil-warming experiments, which will be needed to understand how this vulnerability to temperature may be mediated by altered plant productivity under future climatic change. PMID:26955086

An 500,000 yr record of tropical glaciation recovered during the Lake Junin (Peru) Drilling Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodbell, Donald; Abbott, Mark; Chen, Christine; McGee, David; Hatfield, Robert; Stoner, Joseph; Tapia, Pedro; Valero Garces, Blas; Weidhaas, Nicholas; Woods, Arielle; Hillman, Aubrey; Larsen, Darren; Valencia, Bryan; Bush, Mark

2017-04-01

Lake Junín (11.0°S, 76.2°W) is a shallow (zmax 12 m), intermontane, high-elevation (4080 masl) lake in the inner-tropics of the Southern Hemisphere that spans 300 km2. It is dammed by coalescing alluvial fans that are >250 ka that emanate from glacial valleys. Lake Junín has not been overrun by glacial ice in several hundred thousand years and is ideally located to receive glacigenic sediment. The Junín basin is underlain by carbonate rocks that have provided a source of Ca and HCO3 ions; during the present interglacial period precipitation of CaCO3 in the western margin of the lake has occurred at 1mm yr-1. An airgun seismic survey reveals a strong reflector at 105 meters depth, which marks the base of the lacustrine section. Drilling focused on three sites. Site 1, located near the depocenter and most distal to glacial sources, yielded a composite sediment thickness of 95m; Site 2, proximal to glacial outwash fans, yielded a composite thickness of 28 m; Site 3, located at an intermediate distance yielded a sediment thickness of 55m. The stratigraphy of Site 1 is marked by 8 interstadial units that are characterized by low bulk density and magnetic susceptibility (MS)and high CaCO3. These units are intercalated with glacigenic sediment that has high density and MS, and low CaCO3. The age model for Site 1 is based on numerous AMS radiocarbon dates on terrestrial macrofossils and dozens of U/Th ages on authigenic CaCO3. Comparison of the MS record of glaciation in Junín over the past 700 ka with the global ice volume record reveals many common features and several prominent differences. The high resolution signal of the last 50 ka suggests that glacial pulses are correlative with increases in tropical moisture and steep meridional sea surface temperature gradients in the North Atlantic.

Recent climate warming drives ecological change in a remote high-Arctic lake.

PubMed

Woelders, Lineke; Lenaerts, Jan T M; Hagemans, Kimberley; Akkerman, Keechy; van Hoof, Thomas B; Hoek, Wim Z

2018-05-01

The high Arctic is the fastest warming region on Earth, evidenced by extreme near-surface temperature increase in non-summer seasons, recent rapid sea ice decline and permafrost melting since the early 1990's. Understanding the impact of climate change on the sensitive Arctic ecosystem to climate change has so far been hampered by the lack of time-constrained, high-resolution records and by implicit climate data analyses. Here, we show evidence of sharp growth in freshwater green algae as well as distinct diatom assemblage changes since ~1995, retrieved from a high-Arctic (80 °N) lake sediment record on Barentsøya (Svalbard). The proxy record approaches an annual to biennial resolution. Combining remote sensing and in-situ climate data, we show that this ecological change is concurrent with, and is likely driven by, the atmospheric warming and a sharp decrease in the length of the sea ice covered period in the region, and throughout the Arctic. Moreover, this research demonstrates the value of palaeoclimate records in pristine environments for supporting and extending instrumental records. Our results reinforce and extend observations from other sites that the high Arctic has already undergone rapid ecological changes in response to on-going climate change, and will continue to do so in the future.

Limnology of Botos Lake, a tropical crater lake in Costa Rica.

PubMed

Umaña, G

2001-12-01

Botos Lake, located at the Poas Volcano complex (Costa Rica) was sampled eight times from 1994 to 1996 for physicochemical conditions of the water column and phytoplanktonic community composition. Depth was measured at fixed intervals in several transects across the lake to determine its main morphometric characteristics. The lake has an outlet to the north. It is located 2580 m above sea level and is shallow, with a mean depth of 1.8 m and a relative depth of 2.42 (surface area 10.33 ha, estimated volume 47.3 hm3). The lake showed an isothermal water column in all occasions, but it heats and cools completely according to weather fluctuations. Water transparency reached the bottom on most occasions (> 9 m). The results support the idea that the lake is polymictic and oligotrophic. The lake has at least 23 species of planktonic algae, but it was always dominated by dinoflagellates, especially Peridinium inconspicuum. The shore line is populated by a sparse population of Isoetes sp. and Eleocharis sp. mainly in the northern shore where the bottom has a gentle slope and the forest does not reach the shore.

Does internal variability change in response to global warming? A large ensemble modelling study of tropical rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milinski, S.; Bader, J.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Marotzke, J.

2017-12-01

There is some consensus on mean state changes of rainfall under global warming; changes of the internal variability, on the other hand, are more difficult to analyse and have not been discussed as much despite their importance for understanding changes in extreme events, such as droughts or floodings. We analyse changes in the rainfall variability in the tropical Atlantic region. We use a 100-member ensemble of historical (1850-2005) model simulations with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1) to identify changes of internal rainfall variability. To investigate the effects of global warming on the internal variability, we employ an additional ensemble of model simulations with stronger external forcing (1% CO2-increase per year, same integration length as the historical simulations) with 68 ensemble members. The focus of our study is on the oceanic Atlantic ITCZ. We find that the internal variability of rainfall over the tropical Atlantic does change due to global warming and that these changes in variability are larger than changes in the mean state in some regions. From splitting the total variance into patterns of variability, we see that the variability on the southern flank of the ITCZ becomes more dominant, i.e. explaining a larger fraction of the total variance in a warmer climate. In agreement with previous studies, we find that changes in the mean state show an increase and narrowing of the ITCZ. The large ensembles allow us to do a statistically robust differentiation between the changes in variability that can be explained by internal variability and those that can be attributed to the external forcing. Furthermore, we argue that internal variability in a transient climate is only well defined in the ensemble domain and not in the temporal domain, which requires the use of a large ensemble.

Paired moraine-dammed lakes: a key landform for glaciated high mountain areas in the tropical Andes of Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iturrizaga, Lasafam

2016-04-01

The tropical mountain range of the Cordillera Blanca hosts one of the main concentrations of proglacial lakes in high-mountain settings worldwide, which have formed as a result of the dominant trend of modern glacier retreat. Based on empirical data from field research in over 20 valleys and the analysis of air and satellite images, a genetic classification of major lake types with their barriers and a generalized model for the distribution of the present lakes and paleolakes was set up. The origin of the lakes and their recurrent distribution pattern are associated with the individual stages of the Pleistocene to modern glaciation and their corresponding geomorphological landforms. Characteristic repetitive moraine sequences are found in the upper parts of numerous valleys of the Cordillera Blanca. In terms of the spatial arrangement of the lake types, combined lakes are classified as a distinct composite lake type. These lakes occur at nearly the same elevation or at successively lower elevations, and form characteristic lake sequences of two or more lakes. They may occur as multi-moraine-dammed lakes or mixed combined lakes such as moraine-rock-dammed lakes or multi-debris-dammed lakes. From special interest are in this study the paired moraine-dammed lakes (e.g. Lagunas Qoyllurcochas, Lagunas Safuna Alta and Baja). They are composed of the Great Endmoraine (GEM), primarily formed during the Little Ice Age and earlier, and the pre-GEM, formed during the Holocene. Both moraines are located in rather close vicinity to each other at a distance of 1-3 km. In contrast to the prominent sharp-crested GEM, the pre-GEM is a low-amplitude end-moraine complex, which usually does not exceed a few meters to tens of meters in height. The latter is often composed of several inserted moraine ridges or an irregular hummocky moraine landscape. It is argued here that the process of formation of these combined lakes is mainly controlled by a combination of distinct topographical

First experimental evidence for carbon starvation at warm temperatures in epiphytic orchids of tropical cloud forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoch, Guenter; Roemer, Helena; Fioroni, Tiffany; Olmedo, Inayat; Kahmen, Ansgar

2017-04-01

Tropical cloud forests are among the most climate sensitive ecosystems world-wide. The lack of a strong seasonality and the additional dampening of temperature fluctuations by the omnipresence of clouds and fog produce year-round constant climatic conditions. With climate change the presence of clouds and fog is, however, predicted to be reduced. The disappearance of the cooling fog cover will have dramatic consequences for air temperatures, that are predicted to increase locally well over 5 °C by the end of the 21st century. Especially the large number of endemic epiphytic orchids in tropical cloud forests that contribute substantially to the biological diversity of these ecosystems, but are typically adapted to a very narrow climate envelope, are speculated to be very sensitive to the anticipated rise in temperature. In a phytotron experiment we investigated the effect of increasing temperatures on the carbon balance (gas-exchange and the carbon reserve household) of 10 epiphytic orchid species from the genera Dracula, native to tropical, South-American cloud forests. The orchids were exposed to three temperature treatments: i) a constant temperature treatment (23°C/13°C, day/night) simulating natural conditions, ii) a slow temperature ramp of +0.75 K every 10 days, and iii) a fast temperature ramp of +1.5 K every 10 days. CO2 leaf gas-exchanges was determined every 10 days, and concentrations of low molecular weight sugars and starch were analyses from leaf samples throughout the experiment. We found that increasing temperatures had only minor effects on day-time leaf respiration, but led to a moderate increase of respiration during night-time. In contrast to the rather minor effects of higher temperatures on respiration, there was a dramatic decline of net-photosynthesis above day-time temperatures of 29°C, and a complete stop of net-carbon uptake at 33°C in all investigated species. This high sensitivity of photosynthesis to warming was independent of the

How are warm and cool years in the California Current related to ENSO?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiedler, Paul C.; Mantua, Nathan J.

2017-07-01

The tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual variability that impacts climate throughout the Pacific. The California Current System (CCS) in the northeast Pacific warms and cools from year to year, with or without a corresponding tropical El Niño or La Niña event. We update the record of warm and cool events in the CCS for 1950-2016 and use composite sea level pressure (SLP) and surface wind anomalies to explore the atmospheric forcing mechanisms associated with tropical and CCS warm and cold events. CCS warm events are associated with negative SLP anomalies in the NE Pacific—a strong and southeastward displacement of the wintertime Aleutian Low, a weak North Pacific High, and a regional pattern of cyclonic wind anomalies that are poleward over the CCS. We use a first-order autoregressive model to show that regional North Pacific forcing is predominant in SST variations throughout most of the CCS, while remote tropical forcing is more important in the far southern portion of the CCS. In our analysis, cool events in the CCS tend to be more closely associated with tropical La Niña than are warm events in the CCS with tropical El Niño; the forcing of co-occurring cool events is analogous, but nearly opposite, to that of warm events.

Relationships Among Atmospheric Rivers, Tropical Moisture Exports, and Warm Conveyor Belts over the Northeast Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordeira, J. M.

2015-12-01

Extreme precipitation and attendant floods annually result in 80 fatalities and $5 Billion in damages across the U.S. and account for 50% of annual average U.S. natural disaster losses. The mechanisms that produce extreme precipitation are well known and are relatively well simulated by modern numerical weather prediction models in conjunction with synoptic-scale and mesoscale lift, instability, moisture, and boundaries. The focus of this presentation is on moisture in the form of synoptic-scale water vapor transport and its role in extreme precipitation along the U.S. West Coast. Many different terms have been used to describe synoptic-scale water vapor transport over the Northeast Pacific, including: moisture conveyor belts, warm conveyor belts, tropical moisture exports, tropical plumes, moisture plumes, pineapple express events, and atmospheric rivers. Each term respectively attempts to quantify or represent the propagation or instantaneous movement of water vapor from the Lagrangian and Eulerian frameworks in which they exist. These differences in frameworks often makes comparing and contrasting, for example, warm conveyor belts and atmospheric rivers difficult and may lead to misguided interpretations of long-range trans-oceanic water vapor transport. The purpose of this presentation is to discuss the dynamics of water vapor transport over the Northeast Pacific from the Eulerian and Lagrangian frameworks and illustrate to what degree the two- and three-dimensional structures of these rivers, exports, and belts overlap. Illustration of overlap between these processes will be shown via case study analysis of synoptic-scale water vapor transport over the Northeast Pacific that led to heavy precipitation along the U.S. West Coast during February 2014 and February 2015.

Greenhouse warming and the tropical water budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Betts, Alan K.

1990-01-01

The present work takes issue with some of the theses of Lindzen's (1990) work on global warming, arguing in particular that Lindzen's work is hampered by the use of oversimplified models. Lindzen then presents a detailed reply to these arguments, emphasizing the fundamental importance of the upper tropospheric water-vapor budget to the question of global warming.

Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch.

PubMed

Cheung, William W L; Watson, Reg; Pauly, Daniel

2013-05-16

Marine fishes and invertebrates respond to ocean warming through distribution shifts, generally to higher latitudes and deeper waters. Consequently, fisheries should be affected by 'tropicalization' of catch (increasing dominance of warm-water species). However, a signature of such climate-change effects on global fisheries catch has so far not been detected. Here we report such an index, the mean temperature of the catch (MTC), that is calculated from the average inferred temperature preference of exploited species weighted by their annual catch. Our results show that, after accounting for the effects of fishing and large-scale oceanographic variability, global MTC increased at a rate of 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade between 1970 and 2006, and non-tropical MTC increased at a rate of 0.23 degrees Celsius per decade. In tropical areas, MTC increased initially because of the reduction in the proportion of subtropical species catches, but subsequently stabilized as scope for further tropicalization of communities became limited. Changes in MTC in 52 large marine ecosystems, covering the majority of the world's coastal and shelf areas, are significantly and positively related to regional changes in sea surface temperature. This study shows that ocean warming has already affected global fisheries in the past four decades, highlighting the immediate need to develop adaptation plans to minimize the effect of such warming on the economy and food security of coastal communities, particularly in tropical regions.

Mining and drought in the tropical Andes: a case study of lake Poopó

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zogheib, C.

2017-12-01

The respective impacts of mining water withdrawals and El Niño-related droughts on water availability in the Altiplano region of the tropical Andes were investigated. The naturally semi-arid to arid climate of the region is highly vulnerable to the effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as well as changes to the Bolivian High upper troposphere circulation. The 2015-2016 El Niño event displayed a maximal Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) of up to 2.2 °C, comparable with the 1998-1999 event, considered as the most severe of the 20th century with a maximal ONI of 2.5 °C. This has severely impacted the Altiplano region. Whereas mining has been found to affect observed water quality in the region, its influence on water availability has not been extensively examined. In light of these observations, the case of Lake Poopó, a water body at the intersection of both these climatic and anthropogenic influences, was further analyzed. The lake was officially declared dry in January 2016 by the Bolivian government. Therefore, a water balance model was implemented for the Lake Titicaca - Río Desaguadero - Lake Poopó - Salar de Coipasa (TDPS) catchment, simulating several possible climatic scenarios. Mines were identified and associated water withdrawals were extrapolated using available processing water consumption data. Long-term climatic trends, as averaged between 1970 and 2010 were used to assess the recovery prospects of the lake. Mining was found to have a very limited impact on water quantity in Lake Poopó, with total mining water withdrawals accounting for 0.2% to 0.4% of the total amount of water flowing into the lake from the Desaguadero River, reduced by only 1%. However, 1998 El Niño-induced drought conditions were found to cause a net yearly reduction in storage of 0.76 m. Under such climatic constraints, it was obtained that 32 months were needed for the lake to dry out from its height of 1.972 m as observed on the 10th of April 2013 and 38 months

Differential Millennial-scale Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Cycling Dynamics to Warming from two Contrasting Lake Catchments in Arctic Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longo, W. M.; Huang, Y.; Russell, J. M.; Giblin, A. E.; McNichol, A. P.; Xu, L.; Daniels, W.

2016-12-01

Earth's permafrost carbon (C) reservoir is more than twice as large as global atmospheric C and its vulnerability to warming makes it a significant potential feedback to climate change. Predicted rates of warming could result in the release of 5 to 15% of permafrost C to the atmosphere by 2100 (Schuur et al., 2015); however the uncertainty around this estimate hinders our ability to quantify the arctic temperature-carbon feedback. To elucidate the long-term response of terrestrial C to warming in regions underlain by continuous permafrost, we present geologic records of changes in temperature and terrestrial C cycling dynamics from sediment cores from two contrasting lake catchments in arctic Alaska. The sediment records feature independent chronologies, biomarker-based temperature reconstructions, and geochemical measurements of vascular plant biomarkers (lignin phenols) that provide insight into terrestrial carbon quality, its release from permafrost soils and its transit time on the landscape. Our results indicate that both abrupt and sustained increases in temperature over the past 20,000 years resulted in increased carbon normalized yields of lignin phenols (Λ8, Λ6), which indicate increased mobilization of terrestrial organic carbon from permafrost soils. Lignin phenol indicators of terrestrial carbon quality (Ad:Al(s), Ad:Al(v)), indicated that carbon quality decreased with increasing temperature. These results demonstrate covariation between temperature and both the decay of terrestrial organic matter and lignin alteration resulting from dissolution and sorption processes. Compound specific radiocarbon analyses of lignin phenols and their offsets from depositional ages quantify transit times of terrestrial carbon on the landscape. These measurements revealed the presence of a persistent "pre-aged" terrestrial organic carbon pool, which is likely sourced from degrading permafrost. We also observe different responses of terrestrial organic carbon cycling to

Planktonic cyanobacteria of the tropical karstic lake Lagartos from the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico.

PubMed

Valadez, Francisco; Rosiles-González, Gabriela; Almazán-Becerril, Antonio; Merino-Ibarra, Martin

2013-06-01

The tropical karstic lakes on the Mexican Caribbean Sea coast are numerous. However, there is an enormous gap of knowledge about their limnological conditions and micro-algae communities. In the present study, surface water samples were collected monthly from November 2007 to September 2008 to provide taxonomical composition and biovolume of planktonic cyanobacteria of the lake Lagartos from State of Quintana Roo, Mexico. Water temperature, pH, conductivity, salinity, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), and soluble reactive silica (SRSi) levels were also analyzed. A total of 22 species were identified. Chroococcales and Oscillatoriales dominated the phytoplankton assemblages during the study period. Chroococcus pulcherrimus, Coelosphaerium confertum, Cyanodyction iac, Phormidium pachydermaticum and Planktolyngbya contorta were recorded for the first time in Mexico. A surplus of DIN (mean value of 42.7 microM) and low concentrations of SRP (mean value of 1.0 microM) promoted the enhanced growth and bloom formation of cyanobacteria. The mean biovolume was 3.22 x 10(8) microm3/mL, and two biovolume peaks were observed; the first was dominated by Microcystis panniformis in November 2007 (7.40 x 10(8) microm3/mL), and the second was dominated by Oscillatoriaprinceps in April 2008 (6.55 x 10(8) microm3/mL). Water quality data, nitrates enrichment, and trophic state based on biovolume, indicated that Lagartos is a hyposaline, secondarily phosphorus-limited, and eutrophic lake, where the cyanobacteria flora was composed mainly by non-heterocystous groups.

Sediments Exposed by Drainage of a Collapsing Glacier-Dammed Lake Show That Contemporary Summer Temperatures and Glacier Retreat Exceed the Medieval Warm Period in Southern Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loso, M. G.; Anderson, R. S.; Anderson, S. P.; Reimer, P. J.

2007-12-01

In the mountains of southcentral Alaska, recent and widespread glacier retreat is well-documented, but few instrumental or proxy records of temperature are available to place recent changes in a long-term context. The Medieval Warm Period in particular, is poorly documented because subsequent Little Ice Age glacier advances destroyed much of the existing sedimentary record. In a rare exception, sudden and unexpected catastrophic drainage of a previously stable glacier-dammed lake recently revealed lacustrine stratigraphy that spans over 1500 years. Located near the Bagley Icefield in Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve, Iceberg Lake first drained in A.D. 1999 and has not regained a stable shoreline since that time. Rapid incision of the exposed lakebed provided subaerial exposure of annual laminations (varves, confirmed by radiogenic evidence) that record continuous sediment deposition from A.D. 442 to A.D. 1998. We present a recalculated master chronology of varve thickness that combines measurements from several sites within the former lake. Varve thickness in this chronology is positively correlated with northern hemisphere temperature trends and also with a local, ~600 year long tree ring width chronology. Varve thickness increases in warm summers because of higher melt, runoff, and sediment transport, and also because shrinkage of the glacier dam allows shoreline regression that concentrates sediment in the smaller lake. Relative to the entire record, varve thicknesses and implied summer temperatures were lowest around A.D. 600, high between A.D. 1000 and A.D. 1300, low between A.D. 1500 and A.D 1850, and highest in the late 20th century. Combined with stratigraphic evidence that contemporary jokulhlaups are unprecedented since at least A.D. 442, this record suggests that late 20th century warming was more intense, and accompanied by more extensive glacier retreat, than the Medieval Warm Period or any other time in the last 1500 years. We emphasize

HISTORICAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION OF LAKE SUPERIOR: EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE GREAT LAKES

EPA Science Inventory

Recent studies (Levitus et al., .2000) suggest a warming of the world ocean over the past 50 years. This could be occurring in the Great Lakes also but thermal measurements are lacking. Historical trends in natural phenomena, such as the duration of ice cover on lakes, provide in...

Analysis agriculture's impact in a system of lakes on a karst environment with tropical climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olea Olea, Selene; Escolero Fuentes, Oscar

2015-04-01

This paper has as main object to analyze the impact of agriculture in the water quality of the "Lagos de Montebello" area; which is located in the Southeast of Mexico. This area is prominent by its tropical climate and a karstic environment. The issue arises in a lake system affected by pollution in the later years, which has turned its former clear water into a highly sedimented muddy water in the topographically lower terrains while no polluted on the higher ones; therefore it is intended to determine if the rise in agricultural activity in the lower terrains has induced this phenomenon. The impact of agriculture has been historically studied in temperate climates with karstic environments; nevertheless it has not been very well studied in tropical climates; which are the reason of this proposal to perform a study to analyze the impact of the intensive agriculture running in the area. To develop this project we studied the area regarding to the types of crops that has being established in the zone, being mostly tomato, corn, and bean; and the fertilizers and pesticides applied to them. A groundwater monitoring plan was designed with a variety of phases such as: piezometers building, measurement of groundwater levels, measurement of field parameters, with a two months intervals (Ph, temperature, electric conductivity, total dissolved solids), and water samplings for laboratory analysis (major ions, nutrients, total organic carbon, pesticides) at twice a year, once during rainy season and then on drought. The rates of pollution agents infiltration depends on the type of soil retention and volume of water. The materials found in the soil by the piezometers are clay, silt, sand and variations between them. We determined that the geochemical qualities of the groundwater vary from calcic bicarbonate to calcic sulfated. The results reached with this monitoring provides a preliminary diagnosis on the possible causes and other implications that intensive agriculture in a

Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Hall, Timothy M.; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Wing, Allison A.

2016-01-01

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

Air temperature change in the northern and southern tropical Andes linked to North-Atlantic stadials and Greenland interstadials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrego, Dunia H.; Hooghiemstra, Henry

2016-04-01

We use eight pollen records reflecting climatic and environmental change from northern and southern sites in the tropical Andes. Our analysis focuses on the signature of millennial-scale climate variability during the last 30,000 years, in particular the Younger Dryas (YD), Heinrich stadials (HS) and Greenland interstadials (GI). We identify rapid responses of the vegetation to millennial-scale climate variability in the tropical Andes. The signature of HS and the YD are generally recorded as downslope migrations of the upper forest line (UFL), and are likely linked to air temperature cooling. The GI1 signal is overall comparable between northern and southern records and indicates upslope UFL migrations and warming in the tropical Andes. Our marker for lake level changes indicates a north to south difference that could be related to moisture availability. The direction of air temperature change recorded by the Andean vegetation is consistent with millennial-scale cryosphere and sea surface temperature records from the American tropics, but suggests a potential difference between the magnitude of temperature change in the ocean and the atmosphere.

Connecting tropical climate change with Southern Ocean heat uptake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, Yen-Ting; Xie, Shang-Ping; Deser, Clara; Kang, Sarah M.

2017-09-01

Under increasing greenhouse gas forcing, climate models project tropical warming that is greater in the Northern than the Southern Hemisphere, accompanied by a reduction in the northeast trade winds and a strengthening of the southeast trades. While the ocean-atmosphere coupling indicates a positive feedback, what triggers the coupled asymmetry and favors greater warming in the northern tropics remains unclear. Far away from the tropics, the Southern Ocean (SO) has been identified as the major region of ocean heat uptake. Beyond its local effect on the magnitude of sea surface warming, we show by idealized modeling experiments in a coupled slab ocean configuration that enhanced SO heat uptake has a profound global impact. This SO-to-tropics connection is consistent with southward atmospheric energy transport across the equator. Enhanced SO heat uptake results in a zonally asymmetric La-Nina-like pattern of sea surface temperature change that not only affects tropical precipitation but also has influences on the Asian and North American monsoons.

Isotopic Estimation of Water Balance and Groundwater-Surface Water Interactions of Tropical Wetland Lakes in the Pantanal, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwerdtfeger, J.; Johnson, M. S.; Weiler, M.; Couto, E. G.

2009-12-01

The Pantanal is the largest and most pristine wetland of the world, yet hydrological research there is still in its infancy. In particular the water balance of the millions of lakes and ponds and their interaction with the groundwater and the rivers are not known. The aim of this study was to assess the hydrological behaviour between different water bodies in the dry season of the northern Pantanal wetland, Brazil, to provide a more general understanding of the hydrological functioning of tropical floodplain lakes and surface water-groundwater interactions of wetlands. In the field 6-9 water sample of seven different lakes were taken during 3 months and were analyzed for stable water isotopes and chloride. In addition meteorological data from a nearby station was used to estimate daily evaporation from the water surface. This information was then used to predict the hydrological dynamics to determine whether the lakes are evaporation-controlled or throughflow-dominated systems. A chloride mass balance served to evaluate whether Cl- enrichment took place due to evaporation only, or whether the system has significant inflow and/or outflow rates. The results of those methods showed that for all lakes the water budget in the dry season, output was controlled by strong evaporation while significant inflow rates were also apparent. Inflow rates and their specific concentrations in stable isotopes and chloride were successfully estimated using the simple mass balance model MINA TrêS. This approach enabled us to calculate the water balance for the lakes as well as providing an information on source water flowing into the lakes.

A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed.

PubMed

Kossin, James P

2018-06-01

As the Earth's atmosphere warms, the atmospheric circulation changes. These changes vary by region and time of year, but there is evidence that anthropogenic warming causes a general weakening of summertime tropical circulation 1-8 . Because tropical cyclones are carried along within their ambient environmental wind, there is a plausible a priori expectation that the translation speed of tropical cyclones has slowed with warming. In addition to circulation changes, anthropogenic warming causes increases in atmospheric water-vapour capacity, which are generally expected to increase precipitation rates 9 . Rain rates near the centres of tropical cyclones are also expected to increase with increasing global temperatures 10-12 . The amount of tropical-cyclone-related rainfall that any given local area will experience is proportional to the rain rates and inversely proportional to the translation speeds of tropical cyclones. Here I show that tropical-cyclone translation speed has decreased globally by 10 per cent over the period 1949-2016, which is very likely to have compounded, and possibly dominated, any increases in local rainfall totals that may have occurred as a result of increased tropical-cyclone rain rates. The magnitude of the slowdown varies substantially by region and by latitude, but is generally consistent with expected changes in atmospheric circulation forced by anthropogenic emissions. Of particular importance is the slowdown of 30 per cent and 20 per cent over land areas affected by western North Pacific and North Atlantic tropical cyclones, respectively, and the slowdown of 19 per cent over land areas in the Australian region. The unprecedented rainfall totals associated with the 'stall' of Hurricane Harvey 13-15 over Texas in 2017 provide a notable example of the relationship between regional rainfall amounts and tropical-cyclone translation speed. Any systematic past or future change in the translation speed of tropical cyclones, particularly over

Shift in tuna catches due to ocean warming.

PubMed

Monllor-Hurtado, Alberto; Pennino, Maria Grazia; Sanchez-Lizaso, José Luis

2017-01-01

Ocean warming is already affecting global fisheries with an increasing dominance of catches of warmer water species at higher latitudes and lower catches of tropical and subtropical species in the tropics. Tuna distributions are highly conditioned by sea temperature, for this reason and their worldwide distribution, their populations may be a good indicator of the effect of climate change on global fisheries. This study shows the shift of tuna catches in subtropical latitudes on a global scale. From 1965 to 2011, the percentage of tropical tuna in longliner catches exhibited a significantly increasing trend in a study area that included subtropical regions of the Atlantic and western Pacific Oceans and partially the Indian Ocean. This may indicate a movement of tropical tuna populations toward the poles in response to ocean warming. Such an increase in the proportion of tropical tuna in the catches does not seem to be due to a shift of the target species, since the trends in Atlantic and Indian Oceans of tropical tuna catches are decreasing. Our results indicate that as populations shift towards higher latitudes the catches of these tropical species did not increase. Thus, at least in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, tropical tuna catches have reduced in tropical areas.

Atlantic Induced Pan-tropical Climate Variability in the Upper-ocean and Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Xie, S. P.; Gille, S. T.; Yoo, C.

2016-02-01

During the last three decades, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) exhibited dipole-like trends, with warming over the tropical Atlantic and Indo-Western Pacific but cooling over the Eastern Pacific. The Eastern Pacific cooling has recently been identified as a driver of the global warming hiatus. Previous studies revealed atmospheric bridges between the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean, which could potentially contribute to this zonally asymmetric SST pattern. However, the mechanisms and the interactions between these teleconnections remain unclear. To investigate these questions, we performed a `pacemaker' simulation by restoring the tropical Atlantic SST changes in a state-of-the-art climate model - the CESM1. Results show that the Atlantic plays a key role in initiating the tropical-wide teleconnections, and the Atlantic-induced anomalies contribute 55%-75% of the total tropical SST and circulation changes during the satellite era. A hierarchy of oceanic and atmospheric models are then used to investigate the physical mechanisms of these teleconnections: the Atlantic warming enhances atmospheric deep convection, drives easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-Western Pacific through the Kelvin wave, and westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific as Rossby waves, in line with Gill's solution (Fig1a). These wind changes induce an Indo-Western Pacific warming via the wind-evaporation-SST effect, and this warming intensifies the La Niña-type response in the upper Pacific Ocean by enhancing the easterly trade winds and through the Bjerknes ocean-dynamical processes (Fig1b). The teleconnection finally develops into a tropical-wide SST dipole pattern with an enhanced trade wind and Walker circulation, similar as the observed changes during the satellite era. This mechanism reveals that the tropical ocean basins are more tightly connected than previously thought, and the Atlantic plays a key role in the tropical climate pattern formation and further the

Microbial Community Composition and Putative Biogeochemical Functions in the Sediment and Water of Tropical Granite Quarry Lakes.

PubMed

Kumar, Amit; Ng, Daphne H P; Wu, Yichao; Cao, Bin

2018-05-28

Re-naturalized quarry lakes are important ecosystems, which support complex communities of flora and fauna. Microorganisms associated with sediment and water form the lowest trophic level in these ecosystems and drive biogeochemical cycles. A direct comparison of microbial taxa in water and sediment microbial communities is lacking, which limits our understanding of the dominant functions that are carried out by the water and sediment microbial communities in quarry lakes. In this study, using the 16S rDNA amplicon sequencing approach, we compared microbial communities in the water and sediment in two re-naturalized quarry lakes in Singapore and elucidated putative functions of the sediment and water microbial communities in driving major biogeochemical processes. The richness and diversity of microbial communities in sediments of the quarry lakes were higher than those in the water. The composition of the microbial communities in the sediments from the two quarries was highly similar to one another, while those in the water differed greatly. Although the microbial communities of the sediment and water samples shared some common members, a large number of microbial taxa (at the phylum and genus levels) were prevalent either in sediment or water alone. Our results provide valuable insights into the prevalent biogeochemical processes carried out by water and sediment microbial communities in tropical granite quarry lakes, highlighting distinct microbial processes in water and sediment that contribute to the natural purification of the resident water.

Tropical Atlantic Impacts on the Decadal Climate Variability of the Tropical Ocean and Atmosphere.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Xie, S. P.; Gille, S. T.; Yoo, C.

2015-12-01

Previous studies revealed atmospheric bridges between the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. In particular, several recent works indicate that the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) may contribute to the climate variability over the equatorial Pacific. Inspired by these studies, our work aims at investigating the impact of the tropical Atlantic on the entire tropical climate system, and uncovering the physical dynamics under these tropical teleconnections. We first performed a 'pacemaker' simulation by restoring the satellite era tropical Atlantic SST changes in a fully coupled model - the CESM1. Results reveal that the Atlantic warming heats the Indo-Western Pacific and cools the Eastern Pacific, enhances the Walker circulation and drives the subsurface Pacific to a La Niña mode, contributing to 60-70% of the above tropical changes in the past 30 years. The same pan-tropical teleconnections have been validated by the statistics of observations and 106 CMIP5 control simulations. We then used a hierarchy of atmospheric and oceanic models with different complexities, to single out the roles of atmospheric dynamics, atmosphere-ocean fluxes, and oceanic dynamics in these teleconnections. With these simulations we established a two-step mechanism as shown in the schematic figure: 1) Atlantic warming generates an atmospheric deep convection and induces easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-Western Pacific in the form of Kelvin waves, and westerly wind anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific as Rossby waves, in line with Gill's solution. This circulation changes warms the Indo-Western Pacific and cools the Eastern Pacific with the wind-evaporation-SST effect, forming a temperature gradient over the Indo-Pacific basins. 2) The temperature gradient further generates a secondary atmospheric deep convection, which reinforces the easterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and enhances the Walker circulation, triggering the Pacific to a La Ni

Accelerated increase in the Arctic tropospheric warming events surpassing stratospheric warming events during winter: Accelerated Increase in Arctic Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, S. -Y. Simon; Lin, Yen-Heng; Lee, Ming-Ying

In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March-April. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as well as those documented in previous studies. Our results indicate a recent and accelerated increasemore » in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. Given that tropospheric warming events occur twice as fast than the stratospheric warming type, the noted increase in the former implies further intensification in midlatitude winter weather extremes similar to those experienced in early 2016. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated impact on the anomalously cold Siberia.« less

Special Office Report for Warm Springs Dam and Lake Sonoma. Sonoma County, California. Section 7. Consultation on Endangered Species.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-05-01

REPORT, SECTION 7 CONSULTATION, FN WARM SPRINGS DAM AND LAKE SONOMA, SONOMA COUNTY , F P IN CALIFORNIA 6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER 7. AUTHOR(s) 8...regarding the American Peregrine Falcon (Falco peregrInus anatum) and its critical habitat (about 13,300 acres in Sonoma County , California) in the 29 May...federally owned historic resources. Actions to be undertaken will not impair historic properties. e. Sonoma County General Plan. This County Plan is a

Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robock, Alan; Mao, Jianping

1992-01-01

An examination of the Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows warming over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95-percent level. This pattern is found in the first winter after tropical eruptions, in the first or second winter after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second winter after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of warming, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.

Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robock, Alan; Mao, Jianping

1992-01-01

An examination of the Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows warming over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95 percent level. This pattern is found in the first winter after tropical eruptions, in the first or second winter after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second winter after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of warming, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.

Abrupt climate warming in East Antarctica during the early Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremer, Holger; Heiri, Oliver; Wagner, Bernd; Wagner-Cremer, Friederike

2007-08-01

We report a centennial-scale warming event between 8600 and 8400 cal BP from Amery Oasis, East Antarctica, that is documented by the geochemical record in a lacustrine sediment sequence. The organic carbon content, the C/S ratio, and the sedimentation rate in this core have distinctly elevated values around 8500 y ago reflecting relatively warm and ice-free conditions that led to well-ventilated conditions in the lake and considerable sedimentation of both autochthonous and allochthonous organic matter on the lake bottom. This abrupt warming event occurred concurrently with reported warm climatic conditions in the Southern Ocean while the climate in central East Antarctic remained cold. The comparison of the spatial and temporal variability of warm climatic periods documented in various terrestrial, marine, and glacial archives from East Antarctica elucidates the uniqueness of the centennial-scale warming event in the Amery Oasis. We also discuss a possible correlation of the Amery warming event with the abrupt climatic deterioration around 8200 cal BP on the Northern Hemisphere.

Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity.

PubMed

Sobel, Adam H; Camargo, Suzana J; Hall, Timothy M; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K; Wing, Allison A

2016-07-15

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Vegetation dynamics of the Guatemalan lowlands from MIS7 to MIS5: Evidence from Lake Petén-Itzá

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cruz-Silva, E.; Correa-Metrio, A.; Bush, M. B.

2013-05-01

Reconstructing vegetation patterns of past warm climatic stages is critical for understanding modern processes that affect diversity and climate. Tropical lowlands are of special interest because of the high biodiversity they foster and the risks they face under a scenario of rapid climate change. With a basal age of more that 191,000 years, core PI-1 from Lake Petén-Itzá, Guatemalan lowlands, offer an exceptional opportunity to investigate the dynamics of the vegetation of the area during climatic stages that might be analogous to today. Pollen analysis of the lower part of this sedimentary record shows a sequence of five different climatic stages of alternating warm and cold conditions. According to our interpretation, tropical forests extended in the area during MIS7 and MIS5, with the former characterized by drier conditions than the latter. Apparently forest dynamics closely followed global climatic changes that were recorded in the Antarctic and the Marine Stack records. Our results confirm that vegetation of the Peninsula, although highly resilient, has been very sensitive to global climatic changes.

Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude.

PubMed

Deutsch, Curtis A; Tewksbury, Joshua J; Huey, Raymond B; Sheldon, Kimberly S; Ghalambor, Cameron K; Haak, David C; Martin, Paul R

2008-05-06

The impact of anthropogenic climate change on terrestrial organisms is often predicted to increase with latitude, in parallel with the rate of warming. Yet the biological impact of rising temperatures also depends on the physiological sensitivity of organisms to temperature change. We integrate empirical fitness curves describing the thermal tolerance of terrestrial insects from around the world with the projected geographic distribution of climate change for the next century to estimate the direct impact of warming on insect fitness across latitude. The results show that warming in the tropics, although relatively small in magnitude, is likely to have the most deleterious consequences because tropical insects are relatively sensitive to temperature change and are currently living very close to their optimal temperature. In contrast, species at higher latitudes have broader thermal tolerance and are living in climates that are currently cooler than their physiological optima, so that warming may even enhance their fitness. Available thermal tolerance data for several vertebrate taxa exhibit similar patterns, suggesting that these results are general for terrestrial ectotherms. Our analyses imply that, in the absence of ameliorating factors such as migration and adaptation, the greatest extinction risks from global warming may be in the tropics, where biological diversity is also greatest.

Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude

PubMed Central

Deutsch, Curtis A.; Tewksbury, Joshua J.; Huey, Raymond B.; Sheldon, Kimberly S.; Ghalambor, Cameron K.; Haak, David C.; Martin, Paul R.

2008-01-01

The impact of anthropogenic climate change on terrestrial organisms is often predicted to increase with latitude, in parallel with the rate of warming. Yet the biological impact of rising temperatures also depends on the physiological sensitivity of organisms to temperature change. We integrate empirical fitness curves describing the thermal tolerance of terrestrial insects from around the world with the projected geographic distribution of climate change for the next century to estimate the direct impact of warming on insect fitness across latitude. The results show that warming in the tropics, although relatively small in magnitude, is likely to have the most deleterious consequences because tropical insects are relatively sensitive to temperature change and are currently living very close to their optimal temperature. In contrast, species at higher latitudes have broader thermal tolerance and are living in climates that are currently cooler than their physiological optima, so that warming may even enhance their fitness. Available thermal tolerance data for several vertebrate taxa exhibit similar patterns, suggesting that these results are general for terrestrial ectotherms. Our analyses imply that, in the absence of ameliorating factors such as migration and adaptation, the greatest extinction risks from global warming may be in the tropics, where biological diversity is also greatest. PMID:18458348

A Northern Hemisphere perspective on Holocene hydroclimate trends in the tropical Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larsen, D. J.; Polissar, P. J.; Abbott, M. B.

2016-12-01

Reconstructions of tropical precipitation are important for determining the sensitivity of rainfall patterns in the tropics to climate variability and improving the accuracy of projected hydrologic changes in a warming world. In tropical South America, precipitation is dominantly controlled by the South American Monsoon system (SAM), which operates in conjunction with the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to deliver water resources to hundreds of millions of people. The classic model of South American hydroclimate evolution during the Holocene (past 11 ka) invokes an anti-phased pattern of precipitation between hemispheres, whereby orbital forcing drove a gradual displacement of the ITCZ, causing a southerly shift in seasonal convection and precipitation, and strengthening the SAM as Southern Hemisphere summer insolation increased. Indeed, paleoclimate records derived from multiple geologic archives support this pattern. However, the vast majority of existing records come from the southern tropics and emerging terrestrial datasets from the northern tropics appear contrary to the paradigm. Here, we present lake sediment evidence for coupled hydroclimate and environmental changes from the Venezuelan Andes, a key region for investigating interhemispheric linkages and drivers of tropical hydroclimate variability. Compound specific hydrogen isotope ratios from terrestrial plant waxes and algal lipids, together with supporting sedimentary indicators of runoff and aridity, provide a comprehensive reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere tropical precipitation at local and regional scales. Our results are consistent in sign and magnitude to precipitation reconstructions from both hemispheres, indicating interhemispheric similarities in tropical hydroclimate variability and calling into question the synchronicity and phasing of hydroclimate trends in South America.

Sources of global warming in upper ocean temperature during El Niño

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Warren B.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Mike; Auad, Guillermo

2001-01-01

Global average sea surface temperature (SST) from 40°S to 60°N fluctuates ±0.3°C on interannual period scales, with global warming (cooling) during El Niño (La Niña). About 90% of the global warming during El Niño occurs in the tropical global ocean from 20°S to 20°N, half because of large SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with El Niño and the other half because of warm SST anomalies occurring over ∼80% of the tropical global ocean. From examination of National Centers for Environmental Prediction [Kalnay et al., 1996] and Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set [Woodruff et al., 1993] reanalyses, tropical global warming during El Niño is associated with higher troposphere moisture content and cloud cover, with reduced trade wind intensity occurring during the onset phase of El Niño. During this onset phase the tropical global average diabatic heat storage tendency in the layer above the main pycnocline is 1–3 W m−2above normal. Its principal source is a reduction in the poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropical ocean of 2–5 W m−2. Subsequently, peak tropical global warming during El Niño is dissipated by an increase in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere of 2–5 W m−2, with reduced shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes in response to increased cloud cover tending to cancel each other. In the extratropical global ocean the reduction in poleward Ekman heat flux out of the tropics during the onset of El Niño tends to be balanced by reduction in the flux of latent heat to the troposphere. Thus global warming and cooling during Earth's internal mode of interannual climate variability arise from fluctuations in the global hydrological balance, not the global radiation balance. Since it occurs in the absence of extraterrestrial and anthropogenic forcing, global warming on decadal, interdecadal, and centennial period scales may also occur in association with Earth's internal modes of climate variability on those scales.

Effects of warming and nutrients on the microbial food web in shallow lake mesocosms.

PubMed

Zingel, Priit; Cremona, Fabien; Nõges, Tiina; Cao, Yu; Neif, Érika M; Coppens, Jan; Işkın, Uğur; Lauridsen, Torben L; Davidson, Thomas A; Søndergaard, Martin; Beklioglu, Meryem; Jeppesen, Erik

2018-06-01

We analysed changes in the abundance, biomass and cell size of the microbial food web community (bacteria, heterotrophic nanoflagellates, ciliates) at contrasting nutrient concentrations and temperatures during a simulated heat wave. We used 24 mesocosms mimicking shallow lakes in which two nutrient levels (unenriched and enriched by adding nitrogen and phosphorus) and three different temperature scenarios (ambient, IPCC A2 scenario and A2+%50) are simulated (4 replicates of each). Experiments using the mesocosms have been running un-interrupted since 2003. A 1-month heat wave was imitated by an extra 5 °C increase in the previously heated mesocosms (from 1st July to 1st August 2014). Changes in water temperature induced within a few days a strong effect on the microbial food web functioning, demonstrating a quick response of microbial communities to the changes in environment, due to their short generation times. Warming and nutrients showed synergistic effects. Microbial assemblages of heterotrophic nanoflagellates and ciliates responded positively to the heating, the increase being largest in the enriched mesocosms. The results indicate that warming and nutrients in combination can set off complex interactions in the microbial food web functioning. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Exogenous thyroid hormones regulate the activity of citrate synthase and cytochrome c oxidase in warm- but not cold-acclimated lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zak, Megan A.; Regish, Amy M.; McCormick, Stephen; Manzon, Richard G.

2017-01-01

Thermal acclimation is known to elicit metabolic adjustments in ectotherms, but the cellular mechanisms and endocrine control of these shifts have not been fully elucidated. Here we examined the relationship between thermal acclimation, thyroid hormones and oxidative metabolism in juvenile lake whitefish. Impacts of thermal acclimation above (19 °C) or below (8 °C) the thermal optimum (13 °C) and exposure to exogenous thyroid hormone (60 µg T4/g body weight) were assessed by quantifying citrate synthase and cytochrome c oxidase activities in liver, red muscle, white muscle and heart. Warm acclimation decreased citrate synthase activity in liver and elevated both citrate synthase and cytochrome c oxidase activities in red muscle. In contrast, induction of hyperthyroidism in warm-acclimated fish stimulated a significant increase in liver citrate synthase and heart cytochrome c oxidase activities, and a decrease in the activity of both enzymes in red muscle. No change in citrate synthase or cytochrome c oxidase activities was observed following cold acclimation in either the presence or absence of exogenous thyroid hormones. Collectively, our results indicate that thyroid hormones influence the activity of oxidative enzymes more strongly in warm-acclimated than in cold-acclimated lake whitefish, and they may play a role in mediating metabolic adjustments observed during thermal acclimation.

Exogenous thyroid hormones regulate the activity of citrate synthase and cytochrome c oxidase in warm- but not cold-acclimated lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis).

PubMed

Zak, Megan A; Regish, Amy M; McCormick, Stephen D; Manzon, Richard G

2017-06-01

Thermal acclimation is known to elicit metabolic adjustments in ectotherms, but the cellular mechanisms and endocrine control of these shifts have not been fully elucidated. Here we examined the relationship between thermal acclimation, thyroid hormones and oxidative metabolism in juvenile lake whitefish. Impacts of thermal acclimation above (19°C) or below (8°C) the thermal optimum (13°C) and exposure to exogenous thyroid hormone (60µg T 4 /g body weight) were assessed by quantifying citrate synthase and cytochrome c oxidase activities in liver, red muscle, white muscle and heart. Warm acclimation decreased citrate synthase activity in liver and elevated both citrate synthase and cytochrome c oxidase activities in red muscle. In contrast, induction of hyperthyroidism in warm-acclimated fish stimulated a significant increase in liver citrate synthase and heart cytochrome c oxidase activities, and a decrease in the activity of both enzymes in red muscle. No change in citrate synthase or cytochrome c oxidase activities was observed following cold acclimation in either the presence or absence of exogenous thyroid hormones. Collectively, our results indicate that thyroid hormones influence the activity of oxidative enzymes more strongly in warm-acclimated than in cold-acclimated lake whitefish, and they may play a role in mediating metabolic adjustments observed during thermal acclimation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sources of global warming of the upper ocean on decadal period scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Warren B.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.

2003-01-01

Recent studies find global climate variability in the upper ocean and lower atmosphere during the twentieth century dominated by quasi-biennial, interannual, quasi-decadal and interdecadal signals. The quasi-decadal signal in upper ocean temperature undergoes global warming/cooling of ???0.1??C, similar to that occuring with the interannual signal (i.e., El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation), both signals dominated by global warming/cooling in the tropics. From the National Centers for Environmental Prediction troposphere reanalysis and Scripps Institution of Oceanography upper ocean temperature reanalysis we examine the quasi-decadal global tropical diabetic heat storage (DHS) budget from 1975 to 2000. We find the anomalous DHS warming tendency of 0.3-0.9 W m-2 driven principally by a downward global tropical latent-plus-sensible heat flux anomaly into the ocean, overwhelming the tendency by weaker upward shortwave-minus-longwave heat flux anomaly to drive an anomalous DHS cooling tendency. During the peak quasi-decadal warming the estimated dissipation of DHS anomaly of 0.2-0.5 W m-2 into the deep ocean and a similar loss to the overlying atmosphere through air-sea heat flux anomaly are balanced by a decrease in the net poleward Ekman heat advection out of the tropics of 0.4-0.7 W m-2. This scenario is nearly the opposite of that accounting for global tropical warming during the El Nin??o. These diagnostics confirm that even though the global quasi-decadal signal is phase-locked to the 11-year signal in the Sun's surface radiative forcing of ???0.1 W m-2, the anomalous global tropical DHS tendency cannot be driven by it directly.

Methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes during the 21st century: An analysis with process-based models of lake evolution and biogeochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Zeli; Zhuang, Qianlai

2015-12-01

The importance of methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes in the global carbon cycle has been suggested by recent studies. These studies indicated that climate change influences this methane source mainly in two ways: the warming of lake sediments and the evolution of thermokarst lakes. Few studies have been conducted to quantify the two impacts together in a unified modeling framework. Here we adapt a region-specific lake evolution model to the pan-Arctic scale and couple it with a lake methane biogeochemical model to quantify the change of this freshwater methane source in the 21st century. Our simulations show that the extent of thaw lakes will increase throughout the 21st century in the northern lowlands of the pan-Arctic where the reworking of epigenetic ice in drained lake basins will continue. The projected methane emissions by 2100 are 28.3 ± 4.5 Tg CH4 yr-1 under a low warming scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6) and 32.7 ± 5.2 Tg CH4 yr-1 under a high warming scenario (RCP 8.5), which are about 2.5 and 2.9 times the simulated present-day emissions. Most of the emitted methane originates from nonpermafrost carbon stock. For permafrost carbon, the methanogenesis will mineralize a cumulative amount of 3.4 ± 0.8 Pg C under RCP 2.6 and 3.9 ± 0.9 Pg C under RCP 8.5 from 2006 to 2099. The projected emissions could increase atmospheric methane concentrations by 55.0-69.3 ppb. This study further indicates that the warming of lake sediments dominates the increase of methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes in the future.

Accelerated increase in the Arctic tropospheric warming events surpassing stratospheric warming events during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Lin, Yen-Heng; Lee, Ming-Ying; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Meyer, Jonathan D. D.; Rasch, Philip J.

2017-04-01

In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as documented in previous studies. The analysis indicates a recent and seemingly accelerated increase in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. The shorter duration and more rapid transition of tropospheric warming events may connect to the documented increase in midlatitude weather extremes, more so than the route of stratospheric warming type. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated remarkable strengthening of the cold Siberian high manifest in 2016.

Changes in South Pacific rainfall bands in a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widlansky, M. J.; Timmermann, A.; Stein, K.; McGregor, S.; Schneider, N.; England, M. H.; Lengaigne, M.; Cai, W.

2012-12-01

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest rainband in the Southern Hemisphere and provides most of the rainfall to Southwest Pacific island nations. In spite of various modeling efforts, it remains uncertain how the SPCZ will respond to greenhouse warming. A multi-model ensemble average of 21st century climate change projections from the current-generation of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) suggests a slightly wetter Southwest Pacific; however, inter-model uncertainty is greater than projected rainfall changes in the SPCZ region. Using a hierarchy of climate models we show that the uncertainty of SPCZ rainfall projections in the Southwest Pacific can be explained as a result of two competing mechanisms. Higher tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) lead to an overall increase of atmospheric moisture and rainfall while weaker SST gradients dynamically shift the SPCZ northeastward (see illustration) and promote summer drying in areas of the Southwest Pacific, similar to the response to strong El Niño events. Based on a multi-model ensemble of 55 greenhouse warming experiments and for moderate tropical warming of 2-3°C we estimate a 5% decrease of SPCZ rainfall, although uncertainty exceeds ±30% among CGCMs. For stronger tropical warming, a tendency for a wetter SPCZ region is identified.; Illustration of the "warmest gets wetter" response to projected 21st century greenhouse warming. Green shading depicts observed (1982-2009) rainfall during DJF (contour interval: 2 mm/day; starting at 1 mm/day). Blue (red) contours depict warming less (more) than the tropical mean (42.5°N/S) 21st century multi-model trend (contour interval: 0.2°C; starting at ±0.1°C).

LakeSST: Lake Skin Surface Temperature in French inland water bodies for 1999-2016 from Landsat archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prats, Jordi; Reynaud, Nathalie; Rebière, Delphine; Peroux, Tiphaine; Tormos, Thierry; Danis, Pierre-Alain

2018-04-01

The spatial and temporal coverage of the Landsat satellite imagery make it an ideal resource for the monitoring of water temperature over large territories at a moderate spatial and temporal scale at a low cost. We used Landsat 5 and Landsat 7 archive images to create the Lake Skin Surface Temperature (LakeSST) data set, which contains skin water surface temperature data for 442 French water bodies (natural lakes, reservoirs, ponds, gravel pit lakes and quarry lakes) for the period 1999-2016. We assessed the quality of the satellite temperature measurements by comparing them to in situ measurements and taking into account the cool skin and warm layer effects. To estimate these effects and to investigate the theoretical differences between the freshwater and seawater cases, we adapted the COARE 3.0 algorithm to the freshwater environment. We also estimated the warm layer effect using in situ data. At the reservoir of Bimont, the estimated cool skin effect was about -0.3 and -0.6 °C most of time, while the warm layer effect at 0.55 m was negligible on average, but could occasionally attain several degrees, and a cool layer was often observed in the night. The overall RMSE of the satellite-derived temperature measurements was about 1.2 °C, similar to other applications of satellite images to estimate freshwater surface temperatures. The LakeSST data can be used for studies on the temporal evolution of lake water temperature and for geographical studies of temperature patterns. The LakeSST data are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1193745.

Tropical warm pool rainfall variability and impact on upper ocean variability throughout the Madden-Julian oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Elizabeth J.

Heating and rain freshening often stabilize the upper tropical ocean, bringing the ocean mixed layer depth to the sea surface. Thin mixed layer depths concentrate subsequent fluxes of heat, momentum, and freshwater in a thin layer. Rapid heating and cooling of the tropical sea surface is important for controlling or triggering atmospheric convection. Ocean mixed layer depth and SST variability due to rainfall events have not been as comprehensively explored as the ocean's response to heating or momentum fluxes, but are very important to understand in the tropical warm pool where precipitation exceeds evaporation and many climate phenomena such as ENSO and the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) originate. The first part of the dissertation investigates tropical, oceanic convective and stratiform rainfall variability and determines how to most accurately estimate rainfall accumulation with radar from each rain type. The second, main part of the dissertation uses central Indian Ocean salinity and temperature microstructure measurements and surrounding radar-derived rainfall maps throughout two DYNAMO MJO events to determine the impact of precipitating systems on upper-ocean mixed layer depth and resulting SST variability. The ocean mixed layer was as shallow as 0-5 m during 528/1071 observation hours throughout 2 MJOs (54% of the data record). Out of 43 observation days, thirty-eight near-surface mixed layer depth events were attributed to freshwater stabilization, called rain-formed mixed layers (RFLs). Thirty other mixed layer stratification events were classified as diurnal warm layers (DWLs) due to stable temperature stratification by daytime heating. RFLs and DWLs were observed to interact in two ways: 1) RFLs fill preexisting DWLs and add to total near-surface mixed layer stratification, which occurred ten times; 2) RFLs last long enough to heat, creating a new DWL on top of the RFL, which happened nine times. These combination stratification events were

Temperate Lakes Discovered on Titan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vixie, Graham; Barnes, Jason W.; Jackson, Brian; Wilson, Paul

2012-04-01

We have discovered two temperate lakes on Titan using Cassini's Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS). Three key features help to identify these surface features as lakes: morphology, albedo, and specular reflection. The presence of lakes at the mid-latitudes mean liquid can accumulate and remain stable outside of the poles. We first identify a lake surface by looking for possible shorelines with a lacustrine morphology. Then, we apply a simple atmospheric correction that produces an approximate surface albedo. Next, we prepare cylindrical projection maps of the brightness of the sky as seen from any points on the surface to identify specular reflections. Our techniques can then be applied to other areas, such as Arrakis Planitia, to test for liquid. Currently, all the known lakes on Titan are concentrated at the poles. Lakes have been suggested in the tropic zone by Griffith et al. Our discovery of non-transient, temperate lakes has important implications for Titan's hydrologic cycle. Clouds have been recorded accumulating in the mid-latitudes and areas have been darkened by rainfall but later brightened after evaporation (Turtle et al. 2011). Stable temperate lakes would affect total rainfall, liquid accumulation, evaporation rates, and infiltration. Polaznik Macula (Figure 1) is a great candidate for lake filling, evaporation rates, and stability. References: Griffith, C., et al.: "Evidence for Lakes on Titan's Tropical Surface". AAS/Division for Planetary Sciences Meeting Abstracts #42, Vol. 42, pp. 1077, 2010. Turtle, E. P., et al.: "Rapid and Extensive Surface Changes Near Titan's Equator: Evidence of April Showers". Science, Vol. 331, pp. 1414-, 2011. Figure 1: Polaznik Macula is the large, dark area central to the figure. The encircled dark blue areas represent positively identified lake regions in the T66 flyby. The light blue areas represent lake candidates still under analysis. The green circle marks a non-lake surface feature enclosed by a

Evaluating COSMO's lake module (FLake) for an East-African lake using a comprehensive set of lake temperature profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, W.; Martynov, A.; Darchambeau, F.; Demuzere, M.; van Lipzig, N.

2012-04-01

The African great lakes are of utmost importance for the local economy (fishing), as well as being essential to the survival of the local people. During last decades, these lakes have been changing rapidly and their evolution is a major concern. Hence, it is important to correctly represent them in regional climate models for simulations over tropical Africa. However, so far lake models have been developed and tested primarily for boreal conditions. In this study, for the first time the freshwater lake model FLake is evaluated over East-Africa, more specifically over lake Kivu. Meteorological observations from January 2003 to December 2008 from an automatic weather station in Bukavu, DRC, are used to drive the standalone version of FLake. For the evaluation, a unique dataset is used which contains over 200 temperature profiles recorded since 2002. Results show that FLake in its default configuration is very successful at reproducing both the timing and magnitude of the seasonal cycle at 5 m depth. Flake captures that this seasonality is regulated by the water vapour pressure, which constrains evaporation except during summer (JJA). A positive bias of ~1 K is attributed to the driving data, which are collected in the city and are therefore expected to mirror higher temperatures and lower wind speeds compared to the lake surface. The evaluation also showed that driving FLake with Era-Interim from the nearest pixel does only slightly deteriorate the model performance. Using forcing fields from the Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5 (CRCM5) simulation output gives similar performance as Era-Interim. Furthermore, a drawback of FLake is that it does not account for salinity and its effect upon lake stratification, and therefore requires artificial initial conditions for both lake depth and bottom temperature in order to reproduce the correct mixing regime in lake Kivu. Further research will therefore aim at improving FLake's representation of tropical lakes.

Late Pleistocene and Holocene Hydroclimate Variability in the Tropical Andes from Alpine Lake Sediments, Cordillera de Mérida, Venezuela

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larsen, D. J.; Abbott, M. B.; Polissar, P. J.

2014-12-01

The tropics play a major role in the global hydrologic cycle and changes to tropical rainfall patterns have critical implications for water resources and ecosystem dynamics over large geographic scales. In tropical South America, late Pleistocene and Holocene precipitation variability has been documented in geologic records and associated with numerous external and internal variables, including changes in summer insolation, South American summer monsoon strength, Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, continental moisture recycling, and other climate processes. However, there are few records from the northern hemisphere tropical Americas, a key region for understanding interhemispheric linkages and the drivers of tropical hydroclimate variability. Here, we present a ~13 ka record of coupled hydroclimate and environmental changes from Laguna Brava, a small (~0.07 km2), hydrologically closed lake basin situated at 2400 m asl in the Cordillera de Mérida, Venezuela. Sediment cores collected from varying water depths and proximity to shore are placed in a chronologic framework using radiocarbon ages from terrestrial macrofossils, and analyzed for a suite of physical, bulk geochemical, and stable isotopic parameters. Compound specific hydrogen isotope (D/H) measurements of terrestrial plant waxes (long-chain n-alkanes) show a sharp increase in the late Pleistocene, followed by a long-term trend toward more negative values that suggest a ~20‰ decrease in the D/H ratios of South American tropical precipitation during the Holocene. This pattern is consistent in sign and magnitude to other South American precipitation reconstructions from both hemispheres, indicating interhemispheric similarities in tropical hydroclimate variability. Superimposed on this continent-scale trend are changes in moisture balance and environmental conditions in the Venezuelan Andes. We reconstruct these parameters at Laguna Brava at multidecadal and centennial resolution and evaluate this

Trends in historical mercury deposition inferred from lake sediment cores across a climate gradient in the Canadian High Arctic.

PubMed

Korosi, Jennifer B; Griffiths, Katherine; Smol, John P; Blais, Jules M

2018-06-02

Recent climate change may be enhancing mercury fluxes to Arctic lake sediments, confounding the use of sediment cores to reconstruct histories of atmospheric deposition. Assessing the independent effects of climate warming on mercury sequestration is challenging due to temporal overlap between warming temperatures and increased long-range transport of atmospheric mercury following the Industrial Revolution. We address this challenge by examining mercury trends in short cores (the last several hundred years) from eight lakes centered on Cape Herschel (Canadian High Arctic) that span a gradient in microclimates, including two lakes that have not yet been significantly altered by climate warming due to continued ice cover. Previous research on subfossil diatoms and inferred primary production indicated the timing of limnological responses to climate warming, which, due to prevailing ice cover conditions, varied from ∼1850 to ∼1990 for lakes that have undergone changes. We show that climate warming may have enhanced mercury deposition to lake sediments in one lake (Moraine Pond), while another (West Lake) showed a strong signal of post-industrial mercury enrichment without any corresponding limnological changes associated with warming. Our results provide insights into the role of climate warming and organic carbon cycling as drivers of mercury deposition to Arctic lake sediments. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

50,000 years of Environmental Change in West Tropical Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gosling, W. D.; Miller, C. S.

2010-12-01

Tropical forests provide three vital ‘ecosystem services’ to the Earth, they: i) contain c. 40% of the terrestrial carbon stock, ii) store c. 50% of global biodiversity, and iii) feedback into global climate and carbon cycles. In addition, tropical forests are thought to have been actively absorbing atmospheric carbon dioxide over recent decades and consequently may be mitigating the impact of ongoing human induced global climate change. The services provided by tropical ecosystems are now threatened by human land use practices and projected future climate change. However, due to the complex nature of tropical ecosystems it is unclear how vegetation will respond to changes in global climate conditions. To provide an empirical insight into the response of tropical vegetation to global climate change it is necessary to learn lessons from the past by exploring the fossil record. Lake sediments are the ideal source for fossils to provide evidence of terrestrial vegetation response to past global climate change. The identification of fossil pollen grains trapped within lake sediments is a tried and tested way of establishing past terrestrial vegetation change. Determining the types of plant represented in the fossil pollen record at any particular point in time provides a good indication of the vegetation that surrounded that lake during sediment deposition. In this paper we present a new c. 50,000 year fossil pollen record from Lake Bosumtwi (Ghana; 06o 30’N, 01o 25’ W; c. 100 m above sea level). Lake Bosumtwi is today located within the Guineo-Congolian rainforest close to the ecotone. The seasonal migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) passes over Bosumtwi and consequently vegetation is likely to be sensitive to any changes in the ITCZ position and the associated monsoon. Sediments recovered from Lake Bosumtwi in 2004 by the Intercontinental Drilling Program provide an opportunity to investigate tropical vegetation response to climate change

Comparison of Magnetic, Geochemical and Biological Proxies Signals in a ca. 2,000 yr Record from the Tropical Lowlands of Eastern Mexico.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caballero, M.; Beatriz, O.; Ma. Del Socorro, L.; Rodríguez, A.

2007-05-01

diatom assemblage point to anoxic, sulphidic conditions and higher lake levels after A.D. 850. Higher lake levels in Lago Verde coincide with a recovery in the forest cover, the same lake and vegetation signals are present in nearby lake Pompal, allowing to infer increased precipitation. This signal is coeval with the increased moisture documented during the Medieval Warm Period (A.D. 950-1350) in the northern tropical and subtropical regions of the American continent. For the Little Ice Age (A.D. 1400-1800) data are suggestive of relatively mistier conditions, with a deeper lake and highest vegetation cover, in concordance with the glacial advances recorded in central Mexico and tropical Andes. Higher erosion rates reflect destruction of the rainforest over the last 40 years.

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Over the Past 30 Years: A Global and Dynamic Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Liguang; Wang, Bin; Braun, Scott A.

2006-01-01

The hurricane season of 2005 was the busiest on record and Hurricane Katrina (2005) is believed to be the costliest hurricane in U. S. history. There are growing concerns regarding whether this increased tropical cyclone activity is a result of global warming, as suggested by Emanuel(2005) and Webster et al. (2005), or just a natural oscillation (Goldenberg et al. 2001). This study examines the changes in tropical cyclone intensity to see what were really responsible for the changes in tropical cyclone activity over the past 30 years. Since the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) warming also leads to the response of atmospheric circulation, which is not solely determined by the local SST warming, this study suggests that it is better to take the tropical cyclone activities in the North Atlantic (NA), western North Pacific (WNP) and eastern North Pacific (ENP) basins as a whole when searching for the influence of the global-scale SST warming on tropical cyclone intensity. Over the past 30 years, as the tropical SST increased by about 0.5 C, the linear trends indicate 6%, 16% and 15% increases in the overall average intensity and lifetime and the annual frequency. Our analysis shows that the increased annual destructiveness of tropical cyclones reported by Emanuel(2005) resulted mainly from the increases in the average lifetime and annual frequency in the NA basin and from the increases in the average intensity and lifetime in the WNP basin, while the annual destructiveness in the ENP basin generally decreased over the past 30 years. The changes in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones reported by Webster et a1 (2005) were due mainly to the fact that increasing tropical cyclones took the tracks that favor for the development of intense tropical cyclones in the NA and WNP basins over the past 30 years. The dynamic influence associated with the tropical SST warming can lead to the impact of global warming on tropical cyclone intensity that may be very

Denitrification, anammox and fixed nitrogen removal in the water column of a tropical great lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darchambeau, François; Roland, Fleur; Crowe, Sean A.; De Brabandere, Loreto; Llirós, Marc; Garcia-Armisen, Tamara; Inceoglu, Ozgul; Michiels, Céline; Servais, Pierre; Morana, Cédric D. T.; Bouillon, Steven; Meysman, Filip; Veuger, Bart; Masilya, Pascal M.; Descy, Jean-Pierre; Borges, Alberto V.

2013-04-01

If rates of microbial denitrification in aquatic systems are poorly constrained, it is much more the case for tropical water bodies. Lake Kivu [2.50° S 1.59° S, 29.37° E 28.83° E] is one of the great lakes of the East African Rift. It is an oligotrophic lake characterized by anoxic deep waters rich in dissolved gases (methane and carbon dioxide) and nutrients, and by well oxygenated and nutrient-depleted surface waters. During the seasonally stratified rainy season (October to May), a nitrogenous zone characterized by the accumulation of nitrite (NO2-) and nitrate (NO3-) is often observed in the lower layer of the mixolimnion. It results from nitrification of ammonium released by decaying organic matter. With the seasonal uplift of the oxygen minimum zone, the nitrogenous zone becomes anoxic and might be the most preferential area for fixed nitrogen (N) removal in Lake Kivu. Our work aimed at identifying and quantifying the processes of N losses by denitrification and/or anammox in the nitrogenous zone of the Lake Kivu water column. During 5 sampling campaigns (March 2010, October 2010, June 2011, February 2012 and September 2012), isotopic labelling experiments were used to quantify denitrification and anammox rates along vertical profiles at two pelagic stations of the main lake. Moreover, N2:Ar ratios were estimated during the September 2012 campaign, and 16S rDNA pyrosequencing was used to describe bacterial community composition during the last 2 campaigns. No bacteria related to organisms performing anammox was observed and labelling experiments failed to detect anammox at any locations and any depths. In Lake Kivu, denitrifying bacteria were mainly related to Denitratisoma and Thiobacillus genus. Significant denitrification rates were observed at several occasions, especially under the oxic-anoxic interface in the bottom of the nitracline. The annual average denitrification rate was estimated at ~150 μmoles N m-2 d-1. Denitrification was not the only

Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability.

PubMed

Cox, Peter M; Pearson, David; Booth, Ben B; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Huntingford, Chris; Jones, Chris D; Luke, Catherine M

2013-02-21

The release of carbon from tropical forests may exacerbate future climate change, but the magnitude of the effect in climate models remains uncertain. Coupled climate-carbon-cycle models generally agree that carbon storage on land will increase as a result of the simultaneous enhancement of plant photosynthesis and water use efficiency under higher atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, but will decrease owing to higher soil and plant respiration rates associated with warming temperatures. At present, the balance between these effects varies markedly among coupled climate-carbon-cycle models, leading to a range of 330 gigatonnes in the projected change in the amount of carbon stored on tropical land by 2100. Explanations for this large uncertainty include differences in the predicted change in rainfall in Amazonia and variations in the responses of alternative vegetation models to warming. Here we identify an emergent linear relationship, across an ensemble of models, between the sensitivity of tropical land carbon storage to warming and the sensitivity of the annual growth rate of atmospheric CO(2) to tropical temperature anomalies. Combined with contemporary observations of atmospheric CO(2) concentration and tropical temperature, this relationship provides a tight constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. We estimate that over tropical land from latitude 30° north to 30° south, warming alone will release 53 ± 17 gigatonnes of carbon per kelvin. Compared with the unconstrained ensemble of climate-carbon-cycle projections, this indicates a much lower risk of Amazon forest dieback under CO(2)-induced climate change if CO(2) fertilization effects are as large as suggested by current models. Our study, however, also implies greater certainty that carbon will be lost from tropical land if warming arises from reductions in aerosols or increases in other greenhouse gases.

Impacts of warming on tropical lowland rainforests.

PubMed

Corlett, Richard T

2011-11-01

Before the end of this century, tropical rainforests will be subject to climatic conditions that have not existed anywhere on Earth for millions of years. These forests are the most species-rich ecosystems in the world and play a crucial role in regulating carbon and water feedbacks in the global climate system; therefore, it is important that the probable impacts of anthropogenic climate change are understood. However, the recent literature shows a striking range of views on the vulnerability of tropical rainforests, from least to most concern among major ecosystems. This review, which focuses on the impact of rising temperatures, examines the evidence for and against high vulnerability, identifies key research needs for resolving current differences and suggests ways of mitigating or adapting to potential impacts. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The IOD-ENSO precursory teleconnection over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean: dynamics and long-term trends under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Dongliang; Hu, Xiaoyue; Xu, Peng; Zhao, Xia; Masumoto, Yukio; Han, Weiqing

2018-01-01

The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations. The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO. In comparison, lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant, suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge. A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%-15% depending on the baroclinic modes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so. Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century, which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.

The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio

2017-08-01

The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10-member initial-condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.

Accelerated Increase in the Arctic Tropospheric Warming Events Surpassing StratosphericWarming Events During Winter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Simon; Lin, Yen-Heng; Lee, Ming-Ying

2017-04-22

In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March-April. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as well as those documented in previous studies. Our results indicate a recent and accelerated increasemore » in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. Given that tropospheric warming events occur twice as fast than the stratospheric warming type, the noted increase in the former implies further intensification in midlatitude winter weather extremes similar to those experienced in early 2016. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated impact on the anomalously cold Siberia.« less

Sources and Fluxes of Atmospheric Methane from Lakes in the Alaskan Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Townsend-Small, A.; Akerstrom, F.; Hinkel, K. M.; Arp, C. D.; Beck, R. A.; Grosse, G.; Jones, B. M.; Kim, C.; Lenters, J. D.; Liu, H.; Eisner, W. R.

2014-12-01

Climate warming in the Arctic may result in release of carbon dioxide and/or methane from thawing permafrost soils, resulting in a positive feedback to warming. Permafrost thaw may also result in release of methane from previously trapped natural gas. The Arctic landscape is approximately 50% covered by shallow permafrost lakes, and these environments may serve as bellwethers for climate change - carbon cycle feedbacks, since permafrost thaw is generally deeper under lakes than tundra soils. Since 2011, the Circum-Arctic Lakes Observation Network (CALON) project has documented landscape-scale variability in physical and biogeochemical processes of Arctic lakes in permafrost terrain, including carbon cycle feedbacks to climate warming. Here we present a dataset of concentrations, isotope ratios (13C and 2H), and atmospheric fluxes of methane from lakes in Arctic Alaska. Concentrations of methane in lake water ranged from 0.3 to 43 micrograms per liter, or between 6 and 750 times supersaturated with respect to air. Isotopic measurements of dissolved methane indicated that most of the lakes had methane derived from anaerobic organic matter decomposition, but that some lakes may have a small source of methane from fossil fuel sources such as natural gas or coal beds. Concurrent measurements of methane fluxes and dissolved methane concentrations in summer of 2014 will aid in translating routine dissolved measurements into fluxes, and will also elucidate the relative importance of diffusive versus ebulliative fluxes. It is essential that measurements of methane emissions from Arctic lakes be continued long-term to determine whether methane emissions are on the rise, and whether warming of the lakes leads to increased venting of fossil fuel methane from enhanced thaw of permafrost beneath the lakes.

Vegetation responses to interglacial warming in the Arctic, examples from Lake El'gygytgyn, northeast Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lozhkin, A. V.; Anderson, P. M.

2013-01-01

Palynological data from Lake El'gygytgyn reveal responses of plant communities to a range of climatic conditions that can help assess the possible impact of global warming on arctoboreal ecosystems. Vegetation associated with climatic optima suggests two types of interglacial responses: one is dominated by deciduous taxa (the postglacial thermal maximum (PGTM) and marine isotope stage (MIS5)) and the second by evergreen conifers (MIS11, MIS31). The MIS11 forests show a similarity to Picea-Larix-Betula-Alnus forests of Siberia. While dark coniferous forest also characterizes MIS31, the pollen taxa show an affinity to the modern boreal forest of the lower Amur valley in the Russian Far East. Despite vegetation differences during the thermal maxima, all four glacial-interglacial transitions are alike, being dominated by deciduous woody taxa. Initially Betula shrub tundra established and was replaced by tundra with tree-sized shrubs (PGTM), Betula woodland (MIS5), or Betula-Larix (MIS11, MIS31) forest. The consistent occurrence of deciduous forest and/or high shrub tundra in all interglaciations as they approach or achieve maximum warmth underscores the significance of this biome for modeling efforts. The El'gygytgyn data also suggest the possible elimination or massive reduction of arctic plant communities under extreme warm-earth scenarios.

High-water marks from flooding in Lake Champlain from April through June 2011 and Tropical Storm Irene in August 2011 in Vermont

USGS Publications Warehouse

Medalie, Laura; Olson, S.A.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, identified high-water marks after two floods in Vermont during 2011. Following a snowy winter, new monthly precipitation records were set in Burlington, Vermont, in April and May 2011, causing extensive flooding from April through June. The spring 2011 flooding resulted in a new record for stage (103.27 feet, referenced to the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929) at the Lake Champlain at Burlington, Vt., gaging station (04294500). During August 28 and 29, 2011, tropical storm Irene delivered rainfall totals of 3 to more than 7 inches throughout Vermont, which resulted in extensive flooding and new streamflow records at nine streamgaging stations. Four presidential declarations of disaster were made following the 2011 flood events in Vermont. Thirty-nine high-water marks were identified and flagged to mark the highest levels of Lake Champlain from the May 2011 flooding, and 1,138 high-water marks were identified and flagged along Vermont rivers after flooding from tropical storm Irene in August 2011. Seventy-four percent of the high-water marks that were flagged were later found and surveyed to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988.

Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change.

PubMed

Luo, Jing-Jia; Sasaki, Wataru; Masumoto, Yukio

2012-11-13

It has been widely believed that the tropical Pacific trade winds weakened in the last century and would further decrease under a warmer climate in the 21st century. Recent high-quality observations, however, suggest that the tropical Pacific winds have actually strengthened in the past two decades. Precise causes of the recent Pacific climate shift are uncertain. Here we explore how the enhanced tropical Indian Ocean warming in recent decades favors stronger trade winds in the western Pacific via the atmosphere and hence is likely to have contributed to the La Niña-like state (with enhanced east-west Walker circulation) through the Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. Further analysis, based on 163 climate model simulations with centennial historical and projected external radiative forcing, suggests that the Indian Ocean warming relative to the Pacific's could play an important role in modulating the Pacific climate changes in the 20th and 21st centuries.

New permafrost is forming around shrinking Arctic lakes, but will it last?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Briggs, Martin A.; Walvoord, Michelle Ann; McKenzie, Jeffrey M.; Voss, Clifford I.; Day-Lewis, Frederick D.; Lane, John W.

2014-01-01

Widespread lake shrinkage in cold regions has been linked to climate warming and permafrost thaw. Permafrost aggradation, however, has been observed within the margins of recently receded lakes, in seeming contradiction of climate warming. Here permafrost aggradation dynamics are examined at Twelvemile Lake, a retreating lake in interior Alaska. Observations reveal patches of recently formed permafrost within the dried lake margin, colocated with discrete bands of willow shrub. We test ecological succession, which alters shading, infiltration, and heat transport, as the driver of aggradation using numerical simulation of variably saturated groundwater flow and heat transport with phase change (i.e., freeze-thaw). Simulations support permafrost development under current climatic conditions, but only when net effects of vegetation on soil conditions are incorporated, thus pointing to the role of ecological succession. Furthermore, model results indicate that permafrost aggradation is transitory with further climate warming, as new permafrost thaws within seven decades.

Temperature responses of tropical to warm temperate Cladophora species in relation to their distribution in the North Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cambridge, M. L.; Breeman, A. M.; Kraak, S.; van den Hoek, C.

1987-09-01

The relationship between distribution boundaries and temperature responses of some North Atlantic Cladophora species (Chlorophyta) was experimentally examined under various regimes of temperature, light and daylength. Experimentally determined critical temperature intervals, in which survival, growth or reproduction was limited, were compared with annual temperature regimes (monthly means and extremes) at sites inside and outside distribution boundaries. The species tested belonged to two phytogeographic groups: (1) the tropical West Atlantic group ( C. submarina: isolate from Curaçao) and (2) the amphiatlantic tropical to warm temperate group ( C. prolifera: isolate from Corsica; C. coelothrix: isolates from Brittany and Curaçao; and C. laetevirens: isolates from deep and shallow water in Corsica and from Brittany). In accordance with distribution from tropical to warm temperate regions, each of the species grew well between 20 30°C and reproduction and growth were limited at and below 15°C. The upper survival limit in long days was <35°C in all species but high or maximum growth rates occurred at 30°C. C. prolifera, restricted to the tropical margins, had the most limited survival at 35°C. Experimental evidence suggests that C. submarina is restricted to the Caribbean and excluded from the more northerly American mainland and Gulf of Mexico coasts by sporadic low winter temperatures in the nearshore waters, when cold northerly weather penetrates far south every few years. Experimental evidence suggests that C. prolifera, C. coelothrix and C. laetevirens are restricted to their northern European boundaries by summer temperatures too low for sufficient growth and/or reproduction. Their progressively more northerly located boundaries were accounted for by differences in growth rates over the critical 10 15°C interval. C. prolifera and C. coelothrix are excluded or restricted in distribution on North Sea coasts by lethal winter temperatures, again differences

Sensitivity analysis of lake mass balance in discontinuous permafrost: the example of disappearing Twelvemile Lake, Yukon Flats, Alaska (USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jepsen, S.M.; Voss, C.I.; Walvoord, Michelle Ann; Rose, J.R.; Minsley, B.J.; Smith, B.D.

2013-01-01

Many lakes in northern high latitudes have undergone substantial changes in surface area over the last four decades, possibly as a result of climate warming. In the discontinuous permafrost of Yukon Flats, interior Alaska (USA), these changes have been non-uniform across adjacent watersheds, suggesting local controls on lake water budgets. Mechanisms that could explain the decreasing mass of one lake in Yukon Flats since the early 1980s, Twelvemile Lake, are identified via a scoping analysis that considers plausible changes in snowmelt mass and infiltration, permafrost distribution, and climate warming. Because predicted changes in evaporation (2 cmyr-1) are inadequate to explain the observed 17.5 cmyr-1 reduction in mass balance, other mechanisms are required. The most important potential mechanisms are found to involve: (1) changes in shallow, lateral groundwater flow to the lake possibly facilitated by vertical freeze-thaw migration of the permafrost table in gravel; (2) increased loss of lake water as downward groundwater flow through an open talik to a permeable subpermafrost flowpath; and (3) reduced snow meltwater inputs due to decreased snowpack mass and increased infiltration of snowmelt into, and subsequent evaporation from, fine-grained sediment mantling the permafrost-free lake basin.

Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Soden, Brian J.; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Held, Isaac M.; Leetmaa, Ants; Harrison, Matthew J.

2006-05-01

Since the mid-nineteenth century the Earth's surface has warmed, and models indicate that human activities have caused part of the warming by altering the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Simple theories suggest that global warming will reduce the strength of the mean tropical atmospheric circulation. An important aspect of this tropical circulation is a large-scale zonal (east-west) overturning of air across the equatorial Pacific Ocean-driven by convection to the west and subsidence to the east-known as the Walker circulation. Here we explore changes in tropical Pacific circulation since the mid-nineteenth century using observations and a suite of global climate model experiments. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure reveals a weakening of the Walker circulation. The size of this trend is consistent with theoretical predictions, is accurately reproduced by climate model simulations and, within the climate models, is largely due to anthropogenic forcing. The climate model indicates that the weakened surface winds have altered the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results support model projections of further weakening of tropical atmospheric circulation during the twenty-first century.

Phenotypic plasticity of life-history traits of a calanoid copepod in a tropical lake: Is the magnitude of thermal plasticity related to thermal variability?

PubMed

Ortega-Mayagoitia, Elizabeth; Hernández-Martínez, Osvaldo; Ciros-Pérez, Jorge

2018-01-01

According to the Climatic Variability Hypothesis [CVH], thermal plasticity should be wider in organisms from temperate environments, but is unlikely to occur in tropical latitudes where temperature fluctuations are narrow. In copepods, food availability has been suggested as the main driver of phenotypic variability in adult size if the range of temperature change is less than 14°C. Leptodiaptomus garciai is a calanoid copepod inhabiting Lake Alchichica, a monomictic, tropical lake in Mexico that experiences regular, narrow temperature fluctuations but wide changes in phytoplankton availability. We investigated whether the seasonal fluctuations of temperature and food produce phenotypic variation in the life-history traits of this tropical species. We sampled L. garciai throughout a year and measured female size, egg size and number, and hatching success, along with temperature and phytoplankton biomass. The amplitude of the plastic responses was estimated with the Phenotypic Plasticity Index. This index was also computed for a published dataset of 84 copepod populations to look if there is a relationship between the amplitude of the phenotypic plasticity of adult size and seasonal change in temperature. The temperature annual range in Lake Alchichica was 3.2°C, whereas phytoplankton abundance varied 17-fold. A strong pattern of thermal plasticity in egg size and adult female size followed the inverse relationship with temperature commonly observed in temperate environments, although its adaptive value was not demonstrated. Egg number, relative reproductive effort and number of nauplii per female were clearly plastic to food availability, allowing organisms to increase their fitness. When comparing copepod species from different latitudes, we found that the magnitude of thermal plasticity of adult size is not related to the range of temperature variation; furthermore, thermal plasticity exists even in environments of limited temperature variation, where the

Phenotypic plasticity of life-history traits of a calanoid copepod in a tropical lake: Is the magnitude of thermal plasticity related to thermal variability?

PubMed Central

Hernández-Martínez, Osvaldo; Ciros-Pérez, Jorge

2018-01-01

According to the Climatic Variability Hypothesis [CVH], thermal plasticity should be wider in organisms from temperate environments, but is unlikely to occur in tropical latitudes where temperature fluctuations are narrow. In copepods, food availability has been suggested as the main driver of phenotypic variability in adult size if the range of temperature change is less than 14°C. Leptodiaptomus garciai is a calanoid copepod inhabiting Lake Alchichica, a monomictic, tropical lake in Mexico that experiences regular, narrow temperature fluctuations but wide changes in phytoplankton availability. We investigated whether the seasonal fluctuations of temperature and food produce phenotypic variation in the life-history traits of this tropical species. We sampled L. garciai throughout a year and measured female size, egg size and number, and hatching success, along with temperature and phytoplankton biomass. The amplitude of the plastic responses was estimated with the Phenotypic Plasticity Index. This index was also computed for a published dataset of 84 copepod populations to look if there is a relationship between the amplitude of the phenotypic plasticity of adult size and seasonal change in temperature. The temperature annual range in Lake Alchichica was 3.2°C, whereas phytoplankton abundance varied 17-fold. A strong pattern of thermal plasticity in egg size and adult female size followed the inverse relationship with temperature commonly observed in temperate environments, although its adaptive value was not demonstrated. Egg number, relative reproductive effort and number of nauplii per female were clearly plastic to food availability, allowing organisms to increase their fitness. When comparing copepod species from different latitudes, we found that the magnitude of thermal plasticity of adult size is not related to the range of temperature variation; furthermore, thermal plasticity exists even in environments of limited temperature variation, where the

Tributaries affect the thermal response of lakes to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Råman Vinnå, Love; Wüest, Alfred; Zappa, Massimiliano; Fink, Gabriel; Bouffard, Damien

2018-01-01

Thermal responses of inland waters to climate change varies on global and regional scales. The extent of warming is determined by system-specific characteristics such as fluvial input. Here we examine the impact of ongoing climate change on two alpine tributaries, the Aare River and the Rhône River, and their respective downstream peri-alpine lakes: Lake Biel and Lake Geneva. We propagate regional atmospheric temperature effects into river discharge projections. These, together with anthropogenic heat sources, are in turn incorporated into simple and efficient deterministic models that predict future water temperatures, river-borne suspended sediment concentration (SSC), lake stratification and river intrusion depth/volume in the lakes. Climate-induced shifts in river discharge regimes, including seasonal flow variations, act as positive and negative feedbacks in influencing river water temperature and SSC. Differences in temperature and heating regimes between rivers and lakes in turn result in large seasonal shifts in warming of downstream lakes. The extent of this repressive effect on warming is controlled by the lakes hydraulic residence time. Previous studies suggest that climate change will diminish deep-water oxygen renewal in lakes. We find that climate-related seasonal variations in river temperatures and SSC shift deep penetrating river intrusions from summer towards winter. Thus potentially counteracting the otherwise negative effects associated with climate change on deep-water oxygen content. Our findings provide a template for evaluating the response of similar hydrologic systems to on-going climate change.

Honey Lake Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boren, K.L.; Johnson, K.R.

1978-11-01

Thirty units of a planned 205 geothermally heated hydroponic greenhouses are producing European cucumbers and tropic tomatoes near Wendel, California. The planned utilization of the geothermal resource in this project, hydroponics, in general, and the Honey Lake system is described. (MHR)

A new node on the SE Asian paleoclimate map: the alkaline crater lakes of central Myanmar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smittenberg, Rienk H.; Chabangborn, Akkaneewut; Thu Aung, Lin; Fritz, Sherilyn; Wohlfarth, Barbara

2014-05-01

SE Asia is climatically a key region where the Asian monsoon system connects with the Indo-Pacific warm pool and from where much (latent) heat gets transported to higher latitudes. We recently obtained sediment cores from four crater lakes located in Central Myanmar, with the aim to further colour the still largely white space on the SE Asian paleoclimate map. The chain of volcanic craters extending northeast to southwest in the vicinity of the lower Chindwin River in central Myanmar have been known for a long time. These craters are aligned west of the Sagaing Fault, which is a continental transform fault between the Indian and Sunda continental plates. Four of the craters still contain lakes, while several of the smaller craters are drained and used for agriculture. The region has a tropical Savannah climate, with warm temperatures throughout the year. Precipitation is almost absent during the dry season but increases to an average monthly precipitation of 100-134 mm per month during the monsoon season (May through October). Three of the four lakes, named Twin Ywa (30 m depth), Twin Taung (60 m), and Twin Pyauk (8m), are highly alkaline (pH 10-11), support extensive cyanobacterial blooms and are anoxic below a few meters water depth. Their sediments are composed of highly organic and laminated algae gyttjas. The shallower (2m), oxic and more neutral (pH 7.5) Lake Leshe contains organic-lean clays but with clear variations in colour and bulk density that likely mark changes in humidity though time. The lake levels of the relatively small crater lakes are solely regulated by precipitation and evaporation, and their limnology and water isotope compositions are therefore sensitive to changes in monsoon intensity. We will present limnological data including water isotopic compositions, and initial bulk sedimentary data as well as preliminary age determinations. These will form the basis for more extensive multi-proxy analyses that should result in an improved insight

A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Race, Caitlin; Steinbach, Michael; Ganguly, Auroop R

2010-01-01

The connections among greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios, global warming, and frequencies of hurricanes or tropical cyclones are among the least understood in climate science but among the most fiercely debated in the context of adaptation decisions or mitigation policies. Here we show that a knowledge discovery strategy, which leverages observations and climate model simulations, offers the promise of developing credible projections of tropical cyclones based on sea surface temperatures (SST) in a warming environment. While this study motivates the development of new methodologies in statistics and data mining, the ability to solve challenging climate science problems with innovative combinations of traditionalmore » and state-of-the-art methods is demonstrated. Here we develop new insights, albeit in a proof-of-concept sense, on the relationship between sea surface temperatures and hurricane frequencies, and generate the most likely projections with uncertainty bounds for storm counts in the 21st-century warming environment based in turn on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our preliminary insights point to the benefits that can be achieved for climate science and impacts analysis, as well as adaptation and mitigation policies, by a solution strategy that remains tailored to the climate domain and complements physics-based climate model simulations with a combination of existing and new computational and data science approaches.« less

Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DU, Y.; Zhang, Y.

2016-02-01

A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004-2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate.

Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan

2015-11-01

A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004-2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate.

Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s

PubMed Central

Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan

2015-01-01

A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004–2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate. PMID:26522168

Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s.

PubMed

Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan

2015-11-02

A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004-2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate.

Tightening of tropical ascent and high clouds key to precipitation change in a warmer climate

PubMed Central

Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Neelin, J. David; Shen, T. Janice; Zhai, Chengxing; Yue, Qing; Wang, Zhien; Huang, Lei; Choi, Yong-Sang; Stephens, Graeme L.; Yung, Yuk L.

2017-01-01

The change of global-mean precipitation under global warming and interannual variability is predominantly controlled by the change of atmospheric longwave radiative cooling. Here we show that tightening of the ascending branch of the Hadley Circulation coupled with a decrease in tropical high cloud fraction is key in modulating precipitation response to surface warming. The magnitude of high cloud shrinkage is a primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the changes of tropical-mean outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and global-mean precipitation per unit surface warming (dP/dTs) for both interannual variability and global warming. Compared to observations, most Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 models underestimate the rates of interannual tropical-mean dOLR/dTs and global-mean dP/dTs, consistent with the muted tropical high cloud shrinkage. We find that the five models that agree with the observation-based interannual dP/dTs all predict dP/dTs under global warming higher than the ensemble mean dP/dTs from the ∼20 models analysed in this study. PMID:28589940

Toward Clarity on Understanding Tropical Cyclone Intensification

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-01

forefront of tropical cyclone research for a number of years , espe- cially in the context of the rapid intensification or decay of storms. Rapid...67, 1817 – 1830, doi:10.1175/2010JAS3318.1. Vigh, J. L., and W. H. Schubert, 2009: Rapid development of the tropical cyclone warm core. J. Atmos

Terrestrial water flux responses to global warming in tropical rainforest areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lan, Chia-Wei; Lo, Min-Hui; Chou, Chia; Kumar, Sanjiv

2016-05-01

Precipitation extremes are expected to become more frequent in the changing global climate, which may considerably affect the terrestrial hydrological cycle. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archives have been examined to explore the changes in normalized terrestrial water fluxes (precipitation minus evapotranspiration minus total runoff, divided by the precipitation climatology) in three tropical rainforest areas: Maritime Continent, Congo, and Amazon. Results show that a higher frequency of intense precipitation events is predicted for the Maritime Continent in the future climate than in the present climate, but not for the Amazon or Congo rainforests. Nonlinear responses to extreme precipitation lead to a reduced groundwater recharge and a proportionately greater amount of direct runoff, particularly for the Maritime Continent, where both the amount and intensity of precipitation increase under global warming. We suggest that the nonlinear response is related to the existence of a higher near-surface soil moisture over the Maritime Continent than that over the Amazon and Congo rainforests. The wetter soil over the Maritime Continent also leads to an increased subsurface runoff. Thus, increased precipitation extremes and concomitantly reduced terrestrial water fluxes lead to an intensified hydrological cycle for the Maritime Continent. This has the potential to result in a strong temporal heterogeneity in soil water distribution affecting the ecosystem of the rainforest region and increasing the risk of flooding and/or landslides.

Microbial Diversity and Cyanobacterial Production in Dziani Dzaha Crater Lake, a Unique Tropical Thalassohaline Environment

PubMed Central

Carré, Claire; Cellamare, Maria; Duval, Charlotte; Intertaglia, Laurent; Lavergne, Céline; Roques, Cécile

2017-01-01

This study describes, for the first time, the water chemistry and microbial diversity in Dziani Dzaha, a tropical crater lake located on Mayotte Island (Comoros archipelago, Western Indian Ocean). The lake water had a high level of dissolved matter and high alkalinity (10.6–14.5 g L-1 eq. CO32-, i.e. 160–220 mM compare to around 2–2.5 in seawater), with salinity up to 52 psu, 1.5 higher than seawater. Hierarchical clustering discriminated Dziani Dzaha water from other alkaline, saline lakes, highlighting its thalassohaline nature. The phytoplankton biomass was very high, with a total chlorophyll a concentration of 524 to 875 μg chl a L-1 depending on the survey, homogeneously distributed from surface to bottom (4 m). Throughout the whole water column the photosynthetic biomass was dominated (>97% of total biovolume) by the filamentous cyanobacteria Arthrospira sp. with a straight morphotype. In situ daily photosynthetic oxygen production ranged from 17.3 to 22.2 g O2 m-2 d-1, consistent with experimental production / irradiance measurements and modeling. Heterotrophic bacterioplankton was extremely abundant, with cell densities up to 1.5 108 cells mL-1 in the whole water column. Isolation and culture of 59 Eubacteria strains revealed the prevalence of alkaliphilic and halophilic organisms together with taxa unknown to date, based on 16S rRNA gene analysis. A single cloning-sequencing approach using archaeal 16S rDNA gene primers unveiled the presence of diverse extremophilic Euryarchaeota. The water chemistry of Dziani Dzaha Lake supports the hypothesis that it was derived from seawater and strongly modified by geological conditions and microbial activities that increased the alkalinity. Dziani Dzaha has a unique consortium of cyanobacteria, phytoplankton, heterotrophic Eubacteria and Archaea, with very few unicellular protozoa, that will deserve further deep analysis to unravel its uncommon diversity. A single taxon, belonging to the genus Arthrospira, was

Fuel treatments, fire suppression, and their interaction with wildfire and its impacts: the Warm Lake experience during the Cascade Complex of wildfires in central Idaho, 2007

Treesearch

Russell T. Graham; Theresa B. Jain; Mark Loseke

2009-01-01

Wildfires during the summer of 2007 burned over 500,000 acres within central Idaho. These fires burned around and through over 8,000 acres of fuel treatments designed to offer protection from wildfire to over 70 summer homes and other buildings located near Warm Lake. This area east of Cascade, Idaho, exemplifies the difficulty of designing and implementing fuel...

Prolonged California aridity linked to climate warming and Pacific sea surface temperature.

PubMed

MacDonald, Glen M; Moser, Katrina A; Bloom, Amy M; Potito, Aaron P; Porinchu, David F; Holmquist, James R; Hughes, Julia; Kremenetski, Konstantine V

2016-09-15

California has experienced a dry 21(st) century capped by severe drought from 2012 through 2015 prompting questions about hydroclimatic sensitivity to anthropogenic climate change and implications for the future. We address these questions using a Holocene lake sediment record of hydrologic change from the Sierra Nevada Mountains coupled with marine sediment records from the Pacific. These data provide evidence of a persistent relationship between past climate warming, Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) shifts and centennial to millennial episodes of California aridity. The link is most evident during the thermal-maximum of the mid-Holocene (~8 to 3 ka; ka = 1,000 calendar years before present) and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (~1 ka to 0.7 ka). In both cases, climate warming corresponded with cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific despite differences in the factors producing increased radiative forcing. The magnitude of prolonged eastern Pacific cooling was modest, similar to observed La Niña excursions of 1(o) to 2 °C. Given differences with current radiative forcing it remains uncertain if the Pacific will react in a similar manner in the 21st century, but should it follow apparent past behavior more intense and prolonged aridity in California would result.

Late Holocene lake-level fluctuations in Walker Lake, Nevada, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yuan, F.; Linsley, B.K.; Howe, S.S.; Lund, S.P.; McGeehin, J.P.

2006-01-01

Walker Lake, a hydrologically closed, saline, and alkaline lake, is situated along the western margin of the Great Basin in Nevada of the western United States. Analyses of the magnetic susceptibility (??), total inorganic carbon (TIC), and oxygen isotopic composition (??18O) of carbonate sediments including ostracode shells (Limnocythere ceriotuberosa) from Walker Lake allow us to extend the sediment record of lake-level fluctuations back to 2700??years B.P. There are approximately five major stages over the course of the late Holocene hydrologic evolution in Walker Lake: an early lowstand (> 2400??years B.P.), a lake-filling period (??? 2400 to ??? 1000??years B.P.), a lake-level lowering period during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) (??? 1000 to ??? 600??years B.P.), a relatively wet period (??? 600 to ??? 100??years B.P.), and the anthropogenically induced lake-level lowering period (< 100??years B.P.). The most pronounced lowstand of Walker Lake occurred at ??? 2400??years B.P., as indicated by the relatively high values of ??18O. This is generally in agreement with the previous lower resolution paleoclimate results from Walker Lake, but contrasts with the sediment records from adjacent Pyramid Lake and Siesta Lake. The pronounced lowstand suggests that the Walker River that fills Walker Lake may have partially diverted into the Carson Sink through the Adrian paleochannel between 2700 to 1400??years B.P. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Moisture sources of the Mono Lake deglacial pluvial events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Liang, M. C.; Ali, G.; Shen, C. C.; Cai, Y.; Ke, L.; Hemming, S. R.

2016-12-01

Enormously expanded lakes existed in the today's dry western US Great Basin during the last glacial period. The ancient shorelines located well above modern lake levels suggest that precipitation in lake basins must have been substantially higher in the past. It is however under debate whether the subtropical North Pacific or the tropical Pacific is the major moisture source that contributed to the pluvial events, particularly during the deglaciation. Here, we collected a suite of tufa carbonate samples deposited at the 2,080 meter terrace ( 135 meters above today's lake level) in the Mono Basin, California, a closed lake basin for the last 130 thousand years (kyr). At Goat Ranch, we discovered white, shiny, laminated botryoidal carbonate coatings on tufa mounds. Most of these coatings present two generations of formation separated by a hiatus, which indicates lake level fluctuations. Using high-precision U-Th dating techniques, we found that the lower layer was formed 14.1-14.4 kyr BP (corresponding to the North Atlantic Bølling warming period). The upper layer of the coating was formed 11.9-12.3 kyr BP (within the Younger Dryas event). We then obtained d18O, d13C, D47 and 17O-excess values for the two carbonate layers. The upper part is characterized by low d18O values, -8 to -12 ‰ VPDB, whereas the lower one has higher d18O values, -5 to -6 ‰ VPDB. Both share similar d13C values ( 1-2‰ VPDB). D47 analysis on the carbonates suggests that both layers were deposited in a water temperature of 9±2 oC (1s, n = 4 and 8, respectively). The two generations of carbonates present 17O-excess of moisture in values of 50±5 (1s, n=4) and 25±5 (1s, n=8) per meg VSMOW-SLAP, respectively. The large difference in 17O-excess of parent meteoric water points to different origins of moisture for the tufa carbonate formations. The high 17O-excess values during YD suggest a moisture source with a low relative humidity, consistent with the conventional view that the moisture

Glacier monitoring and glacier-climate interactions in the tropical Andes: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veettil, Bijeesh Kozhikkodan; Wang, Shanshan; Florêncio de Souza, Sergio; Bremer, Ulisses Franz; Simões, Jefferson Cardia

2017-08-01

In this review, we summarized the evolution of glacier monitoring in the tropical Andes during the last few decades, particularly after the development of remote sensing and photogrammetry. Advantages and limitations of glacier mapping, applied so far, in Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia are discussed in detail. Glacier parameters such as the equilibrium line altitude, snowline and mass balance were given special attention in understanding the complex cryosphere-climate interactions, particularly using remote sensing techniques. Glaciers in the inner and the outer tropics were considered separately based on the precipitation and temperature conditions within a new framework. The applicability of various methods to use glacier records to understand and reconstruct the tropical Andean climate between the Last Glacial Maximum (11,700 years ago) and the present is also explored in this paper. Results from various studies published recently were analyzed and we tried to understand the differences in the magnitudes of glacier responses towards the climatic perturbations in the inner tropics and the outer tropics. Inner tropical glaciers, particularly those in Venezuela and Colombia near the January Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), are more vulnerable to increase in temperature. Surface energy balance experiments show that outer tropical glaciers respond to precipitation variability very rapidly in comparison with the temperature variability, particularly when moving towards the subtropics. We also analyzed the gradients in glacier response to climate change from the Pacific coast towards the Amazon Basin as well as with the elevation. Based on the current trends synthesised from recent studies, it is hypothesized that the glaciers in the inner tropics and the southern wet outer tropics will disappear first as a response to global warming whereas glaciers in the northern wet outer tropics and dry outer tropics show resistance to warming trends due to

Tropical fish in a warming world: thermal tolerance of Nile perch Lates niloticus (L.) in Lake Nabugabo, Uganda.

PubMed

Chrétien, Emmanuelle; Chapman, Lauren J

2016-01-01

Key to predicting the response of fishes to climate change is quantifying how close fish are to their critical thermal limits in nature and their ability to adjust their thermal sensitivity to maintain performance. Here, we evaluated the effects of body size and habitat on aerobic scope (AS) and thermal tolerance of Nile perch Lates niloticus (L.), a fish of great economic and food security importance in East Africa, using respirometry and critical thermal maximum (CTmax) trials. Juvenile Nile perch from distinct habitats (high or low dissolved oxygen concentrations) of Lake Nabugabo, Uganda were exposed for 4.6 ± 0.55 days to a temperature treatment (25.5, 27.5, 29.5 or 31.5°C) prior to experimentation, with the lowest temperature corresponding to the mean annual daytime temperature in Lake Nabugabo and the highest temperature being 3°C higher than the maximal monthly average. As expected, metabolic rates increased with body mass. Although resting metabolic rate increased with temperature, maximal metabolic rate showed no change. Likewise, AS did not vary across treatments. The CTmax increased with acclimation temperature. There was no effect of habitat on maximal metabolic rate, AS or CTmax; however, there was a trend towards a lower resting metabolic rate for Nile perch captured in the low-dissolved oxygen habitat than in well-oxygenated waters. This study shows that juvenile Nile perch maintain a large AS at temperatures near the upper limit of their natural thermal range and provides evidence that Nile perch have physiological mechanisms to deal with acute exposure to thermal stress.

Great Lakes

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

Bands of lake effect snow drift eastward from the western Great Lakes in this true-color image captured by the NOAA/NASA Suomi NPP satellite's Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument on January 5, 2017. National Weather Service forecasters expect light to moderate lake effect snow showers to continue throughout the day today and into Saturday (1/7). Lake-effect snow forms when cold air passes over the warmer waters of a lake. This causes some lake water to evaporate into the air and warm it. This warmer, wetter air rises and cools as it moves away from the lake. When it cools, it releases that moisture and, if it’s cold enough, that moisture turns into snow. Although true-color images like this may appear to be photographs of Earth, they aren't. They are created by combining data from the three color channels on the VIIRS instrument sensitive to the red, green and blue (or RGB) wavelengths of light into one composite image. In addition, data from several other channels are often also included to cancel out or correct atmospheric interference that may blur parts of the image. Credit: NOAA/NASA/Suomi NPP via NOAA's Environmental Visualization Laboratory

Temporal patterns of glacial lake evolution in high-mountain environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mergili, Martin; Emmer, Adam; Viani, Cristina; Huggel, Christian

2017-04-01

Lakes forming at the front of retreating glaciers are characteristic features of high-mountain areas in a warming climate. Typically, lakes shift from the proglacial phase (lake is in direct contact with glacier) to a glacier-detached (no direct contact) and finally to a non-glacial phase (lake catchment is completely deglaciated) of lake evolution. Apart from changing glacier-lake interactions, each stage is characterized by particular features of lake growth, and by the lake's susceptibility to sudden drainage (lake outburst flood). While this concept appears to be valid globally, some mountain areas are rich in dynamically evolving proglacial lakes, while in others most lakes have already shifted to the glacier-detached or even non-glacial phase. In the present contribution we (i) explore and quantify the history of glacial lake formation and evolution over the past up to 70 years; (ii) assess the current situation of selected contrasting mountain areas (eastern and western European Alps, southern and northern Pamir, Cordillera Blanca); and (iii) link the patterns of lake evolution to the prevailing topographic and glaciological characteristics in order to improve the understanding of high-mountain geoenvironmental change. In the eastern Alps we identify only very few lakes in the proglacial stage. While many lakes appeared and dynamically evolved until the 1980s between 2550 m and 2800 m asl, most of them have lost glacier contact until the 2000s, whereas very few new proglacial lakes appeared at the same time. Even though a similar trend is observed in the higher western Alps, a more dynamic glacial lake evolution is observed there. The arid southern Pamir is characterized by a high number of proglacial lakes, mainly around 4500 m asl. There is strong evidence that glacial lake evolution is, after a highly dynamic phase between the 1970s and approx. 2000, decelerating. Few proglacial lakes exist in the higher and more humid, heavily glacierized northern Pamir

Characteristics and development of European cyclones with tropical origin in reanalysis data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dekker, Mark M.; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Vries, Hylke de; Baatsen, Michiel; Delden, Aarnout J. van

2018-01-01

Major storm systems over Europe frequently have a tropical origin. This paper analyses the characteristics and dynamics of such cyclones in the observational record, using MERRA reanalysis data for the period 1979-2013. By stratifying the cyclones along three key phases of their development (tropical phase, extratropical transition and final re-intensification), we identify four radically different life cycles: the tropical cyclone and extratropical cyclone life cycles, the classic extratropical transition and the warm seclusion life cycle. More than 50% of the storms reaching Europe from low latitudes follow the warm seclusion life cycle. It also contains the strongest cyclones. They are characterized by a warm core and a frontal T-bone structure, with a northwestward warm conveyor belt and the effects of dry intrusion. Rapid deepening occurs in the latest phase, around their arrival in Europe. Both baroclinic instability and release of latent heat contribute to the strong intensification. The pressure minimum occurs often a day after entering Europe, which enhances the potential threat of warm seclusion storms for Europe. The impact of a future warmer climate on the development of these storms is discussed.

A Late Holocene Record of Human Impact in the Tropical Lowlands of the Mexican Gulf Coast: Lago Verde.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Socorro, L.; Sosa, S.; Caballero, M.; Rodriguez, A.; Ortega, B.

2005-05-01

Lago Verde is a maar lake (18 36 43 N; 95 20 52 W) located on the Gulf Coast of Mexico in "Los Tuxtlas" region. The area was cover by tropical rain forest and is part of the core area of the earliest Mesoamerican cultures. A 6 m sediment core was obtained in order to document vegetation and lake level history of this area. Lago Verde is a shallow, eutrophic lake (max. 4 m), the natural vegetation has been removed and grasslands with some tropical trees such Bursera grows around the lake. According with the radiocarbon chronology the sequence covers the last 2500 yr BP. At the base of the sequence low abundance of tropical trees is record, with intermediate lake levels. A sudden change in the pollen stratigraphy occurs at ca. 2000 yr BP, with important presence of Poaceae, Ambrosia and Cheno.-Am. along with Zea mays indicating human activity in the area. This is associated with a change in limnological conditions, recording turbid, shallow environments. This pollen signals correlates with dry phases in Yucatan, suggesting that this dry climatic signal probably had effect on an ample area of Mexico. However, at 1200 yr BP, no more Zea mays pollen is recovered suggesting the abandonment of the area. Lake levels recover as well as the tropical forest. The last 150 yr BP is characterized by the reduction in the pollen of tropical forest trees, presence of Zea mays, increased erosion rates, turbidity and eutrophication in the lake, all related to deforestation.

More-frequent extreme northward shifts of eastern Indian Ocean tropical convergence under greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Weller, Evan; Cai, Wenju; Min, Seung-Ki; Wu, Lixin; Ashok, Karumuri; Yamagata, Toshio

2014-01-01

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean exhibits strong interannual variability, often co-occurring with positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events. During what we identify as an extreme ITCZ event, a drastic northward shift of atmospheric convection coincides with an anomalously strong north-minus-south sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Such shifts lead to severe droughts over the maritime continent and surrounding islands but also devastating floods in southern parts of the Indian subcontinent. Understanding future changes of the ITCZ is therefore of major scientific and socioeconomic interest. Here we find a more-than-doubling in the frequency of extreme ITCZ events under greenhouse warming, estimated from climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 that are able to simulate such events. The increase is due to a mean state change with an enhanced north-minus-south SST gradient and a weakened Walker Circulation, facilitating smaller perturbations to shift the ITCZ northwards. PMID:25124737

Tropical fish in a warming world: thermal tolerance of Nile perch Lates niloticus (L.) in Lake Nabugabo, Uganda

PubMed Central

Chrétien, Emmanuelle; Chapman, Lauren J.

2016-01-01

Key to predicting the response of fishes to climate change is quantifying how close fish are to their critical thermal limits in nature and their ability to adjust their thermal sensitivity to maintain performance. Here, we evaluated the effects of body size and habitat on aerobic scope (AS) and thermal tolerance of Nile perch Lates niloticus (L.), a fish of great economic and food security importance in East Africa, using respirometry and critical thermal maximum (CTmax) trials. Juvenile Nile perch from distinct habitats (high or low dissolved oxygen concentrations) of Lake Nabugabo, Uganda were exposed for 4.6 ± 0.55 days to a temperature treatment (25.5, 27.5, 29.5 or 31.5°C) prior to experimentation, with the lowest temperature corresponding to the mean annual daytime temperature in Lake Nabugabo and the highest temperature being 3°C higher than the maximal monthly average. As expected, metabolic rates increased with body mass. Although resting metabolic rate increased with temperature, maximal metabolic rate showed no change. Likewise, AS did not vary across treatments. The CTmax increased with acclimation temperature. There was no effect of habitat on maximal metabolic rate, AS or CTmax; however, there was a trend towards a lower resting metabolic rate for Nile perch captured in the low-dissolved oxygen habitat than in well-oxygenated waters. This study shows that juvenile Nile perch maintain a large AS at temperatures near the upper limit of their natural thermal range and provides evidence that Nile perch have physiological mechanisms to deal with acute exposure to thermal stress. PMID:27990290

Sedimentation in Lake Elgygytgyn, NE Russia, during the past 340.000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juschus, O.; Melles, M.; Wennrich, V.; Nowaczyk, N.; Brigham-Grette, J.; Minyuk, P.

2009-12-01

In spring 2009, an ICDP drilling operation on Lake Elgygytgyn, located in a 3.6 Myr old meteorite impact crater in NE Siberia, penetrated 312 m of lake sediments above a suevite layer and brecciated bedrock. In the uppermost ca. 140 m, the lake sediments according to on-site core descriptions and susceptibility measurements are comparable to those occurring in up to 16.0 m long sediment cores from the central lake part, which were recovered and investigated within the site survey for the drilling project. Assuming comparable sedimentation rates, the upper 80 m of the sediment record may represent the depositional history during the past ca. 3.0 Myr. This poster summarizes the results thus far available from the upper 16 m, in order to illustrate the potential the drilled upper lake sediment record has for reconstructing the environmental and climatic history of the terrestrial Arctic during the Quaternary. Besides two volcanic ash layers and a number of fine-grained turbidites, by far most of the sediments in the central part of Lake Elgygytgyn originate from fluvial and eolian input, and from the biological production in the lake. These pelagic sediments can be distinguished into four depositional units of contrasting lithological and biogeochemical composition, reflecting past environmental conditions associated with relatively warm, peak warm, cold and dry, and cold but more moist climate modes. A relatively warm climate, resulting in complete summer melt of the lake ice cover and seasonal mixing of the water column, prevailed during the Holocene and Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 3, 5.1 - 5.3, 6.1, 6.3, 6.5, 7.1 - 7.3, 7.5, 8.1, 8.3 and 9.1. MIS 5.5 (Eemian) and 9.5 were characterized by significantly enhanced aquatic primary production and organic matter supply from the catchment, indicating peak warm conditions. During MIS 2, 5.4, 6.2, 6.6, 8.2, 8.4, and 10 the climate was cold and dry, leading to perennial lake ice cover, little regional snowfall, and a

Warm Tropical Sea Surface Temperatures During the Pliocene: a New Record from Mg/Ca and δ18O In Situ Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wycech, J.; Kelly, D.; Kozdon, R.; Fournelle, J.; Valley, J. W.

2013-12-01

The Pliocene Warm Period (PWP) was a global warming event that punctuated Earth's climate history ~3 Ma, and study of its geologic record is providing important constraints for models predicting future climate change. Many sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions for the PWP indicate amplified polar warmth with minimal or absent warming in the tropics - a phenomenon termed the cool tropics paradox. Key pieces of evidence for the lack of tropical warmth are oxygen isotope (δ18O) and Mg/Ca ratios in planktic foraminiferal shells. However, the δ18O data used to reconstruct surface-ocean conditions are derived from whole foraminiferal shells with the assumption that their geochemical compositions are well preserved and homogeneous. To the contrary, most planktic foraminiferal shells found in deep-sea sediments are an aggregate mixture of three carbonate phases (18O-depleted pre-gametogenic calcite, 18O-rich gametogenic calcite added during reproduction, and very 18O-rich diagenetic calcite) that formed under different physiological and/or environmental conditions. Here we report preliminary results of an ongoing study that uses secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) and electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) to acquire in situ δ18O and Mg/Ca data, respectively, from 3-10 μm domains within individual planktic foraminiferal shells (Globigerinoides sacculifer) preserved in a PWP record recovered at ODP Site 806 in the West Pacific Warm Pool. SIMS analyses show that the δ18O of gametogenic calcite is 1-2‰ higher than in the pre-gametogenic calcite of Gs. sacculifer. Mass-balance calculations using the mean δ18O of gametogenic and pre-gametogenic calcites predict a whole-shell δ18O that is ~1.9‰ lower than the published whole-shell δ18O for Gs. sacculifer in this same deep-sea section. Removal of 18O-depleted, pre-gametogenic calcite via dissolution cannot fully account for this isotopic offset since the mean δ18O of whole shells (-1.3‰) is higher than that

Climate change and tectonic activity during the early Pliocene Warm Period from the ostracod record at Lake Qinghai, northeastern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Fengyan; An, Zhisheng; Chang, Hong; Dodson, John; Qiang, Xiaoke; Yan, Hong; Dong, Jibao; Song, Yougui; Fu, Chaofeng; Li, Xiangzhong

2017-05-01

The Early Pliocene Warm Period (EPWP, 5-3 Ma) is sometimes thought to be a useful analogue for a future warmer world, and thus the boundary conditions and drivers of climate in the EPWP may provide valuable lessons for understanding how a future warmer world might unfold. Lake Qinghai is located on the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and is affected by both Monsoon climate and Westerlies circulation. It is sensitive to the climate drivers of these systems. Its sediments, accumulated over the Cenozoic period, are a rich source of information for climate, tectonics and environmental changes of the period. We present a high-resolution ostracod record from a Lake Qinghai sediment core with a record of the period 5.10-2.60 Ma, thus covering the EPWP. Ostracods appear at 4.63 Ma and are most abundant until 3.58 Ma, while a body of water was present at the core site. This suggests a phase of humid climate and an intensified Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM), which is consistent with a warmer and wetter climate in the early Pliocene. Within this period the ostracod record shows some variabilities in lake level with deeper periods suggesting more intense ASM compared to those with shallower water. The disappearance of ostracods at 3.58 Ma may provide evidence for the uplift of Qinghai Nanshan (south of Qinghai Lake) since this is when the ASM intensified.

Effects of Arctic geoengineering on precipitation in the tropical monsoon regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nalam, Aditya; Bala, Govindasamy; Modak, Angshuman

2017-07-01

Arctic geoengineering wherein sunlight absorption is reduced only in the Arctic has been suggested as a remedial measure to counteract the on-going rapid climate change in the Arctic. Several modeling studies have shown that Arctic geoengineering can minimize Arctic warming but will shift the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) southward, unless offset by comparable geoengineering in the Southern Hemisphere. In this study, we investigate and quantify the implications of this ITCZ shift due to Arctic geoengineering for the global monsoon regions using the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 coupled to a slab ocean model. A doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial levels leads to a warming of 6 K in the Arctic region and precipitation in the monsoon regions increases by up to 15%. In our Arctic geoengineering simulation which illustrates a plausible latitudinal distribution of the reduction in sunlight, an addition of sulfate aerosols (11 Mt) in the Arctic stratosphere nearly offsets the Arctic warming due to CO2 doubling but this shifts the ITCZ southward by 1.5° relative to the pre-industrial climate. The combined effect from this shift and the residual CO2-induced climate change in the tropics is a decrease/increase in annual mean precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere/Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions by up to -12/+17%. Polar geoengineering where sulfate aerosols are prescribed in both the Arctic (10 Mt) and Antarctic (8 Mt) nearly offsets the ITCZ shift due to Arctic geoengineering, but there is still a residual precipitation increase (up to 7%) in most monsoon regions associated with the residual CO2 induced warming in the tropics. The ITCZ shift due to our Global geoengineering simulation, where aerosols (20 Mt) are prescribed uniformly around the globe, is much smaller and the precipitation changes in most monsoon regions are within ±2% as the residual CO2-induced warming in the tropics is also much less than in Arctic and Polar geoengineering. Further

Terrestrial Water Flux Responses to Global Warming in Tropical Rainforest Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lan, C. W.; Lo, M. H.; Kumar, S.

2016-12-01

Precipitation extremes are expected to become more frequent in the changing global climate, which may considerably affect the terrestrial hydrological cycle. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archives have been examined to explore the changes in normalized terrestrial water fluxes (TWFn) (precipitation minus evapotranspiration minus total runoff, divided by the precipitation climatology) in three tropical rainforest areas: Maritime Continent, Congo, and Amazon. Results reveal that a higher frequency of intense precipitation events is predicted for the Maritime Continent in the future climate than in the present climate, but not for the Amazon or Congo rainforests. Nonlinear responses to extreme precipitation lead to a reduced groundwater recharge and a proportionately greater amount of direct runoff, particularly for the Maritime Continent, where both the amount and intensity of precipitation increase under global warming. We suggest that the nonlinear response is related to the existence of a higher near-surface soil moisture over the Maritime Continent than that over the Amazon and Congo rainforests. The wetter soil over the Maritime Continent also leads to an increased subsurface runoff. Thus, increased precipitation extremes and concomitantly reduced terrestrial water fluxes (TWF) lead to an intensified hydrological cycle for the Maritime Continent. This has the potential to result in a strong temporal heterogeneity in soil water distribution affecting the ecosystem of the rainforest region and increasing the risk of flooding and/or landslides.

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carey, Michael P.; Zimmerman, Christian E.

2014-01-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska.

PubMed

Carey, Michael P; Zimmerman, Christian E

2014-05-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to

Lake ice records used to detect historical and future climatic changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robertson, Dale M.; Ragotzkie, R.A.; Magnuson, John J.

1992-01-01

With the relationships between air temperature and freeze and break up dates, we can project how the ice cover of Lake Mendota should respond to future climatic changes. If warming occurs, the ice cover for Lake Mendota should decrease approximately 11 days per 1 °C increase. With a warming of 4 to 5 °C, years with no ice cover should occur in approximately 1 out of 15 to 30 years.

Climatic forcing of carbon-oxygen isotopic covariance in temperate-region marl lakes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drummond, C. N.; Patterson, W. P.; Walker, J. C.

1995-01-01

Carbon and oxygen stable isotopic compositions of lacustrine carbonate from a southeastern Michigan marl lake display linear covariance over a range of 4.0% Peedee belemnite (PDB) in oxygen and 3.9% (PDB) in carbon. Mechanisms of delta 13 C-delta 18 O coupling conventionally attributed to lake closure in arid-region basins are inapplicable to hydrologically open lake systems. Thus, an alternative explanation of isotopic covariance in temperate region dimictic marl lakes is required. We propose that isotopic covariance is a direct record of change in regional climate. In short-residence-time temperate-region lake basins, summer meteoric precipitation is enriched in 18O relative to winter values, and summer organic productivity enriches epilimnic dissolved inorganic carbon in 13C. Thus, climate change toward longer summers and/or shorter winters could result in greater proportions of warm-month meteoric precipitation, longer durations of warm-month productivity, and net long-term enrichment in carbonate 18O and 13C. Isotopic covariance observed in the Michigan marl lake cores is interpreted to reflect postglacial warming from 10 to 3 ka followed by cooler mean annual temperature, a shift toward greater proportions of seasonal summer precipitation, a shortening of the winter season, or some combination of these three factors.

Reversal of Increasing Tropical Ocean Hypoxia Trends With Sustained Climate Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; Keith Moore, J.; Lindsay, Keith; Randerson, James T.

2018-04-01

Dissolved oxygen (O2) is essential for the survival of marine animals. Climate change impacts on future oxygen distributions could modify species biogeography, trophic interactions, biodiversity, and biogeochemistry. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models predict a decreasing trend in marine O2 over the 21st century. Here we show that this increasing hypoxia trend reverses in the tropics after 2100 in the Community Earth System Model forced by atmospheric CO2 from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and Extended Concentration Pathway 8.5. In tropical intermediate waters between 200 and 1,000 m, the model predicts a steady decline of O2 and an expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) during the 21st century. By 2150, however, the trend reverses with oxygen concentration increasing and OMZ volume shrinking through 2300. A novel five-box model approach in conjunction with output from the full Earth system model is used to separate the contributions of biological and physical processes to the trends in tropical oxygen. The tropical O2 recovery is caused mainly by reductions in tropical biological export, coupled with a modest increase in ventilation after 2200. The time-evolving oxygen distribution impacts marine nitrogen cycling, with potentially important climate feedbacks.

Relation between century-scale Holocene arid intervals in tropical and temperate zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, H. F.; Gasse, F.; Benkaddour, A.; El Hamouti, N.; van der Kaars, S.; Perkins, W. T.; Pearce, N. J.; Roberts, C. N.

1995-01-01

CLIMATE records from lake sediments in tropical Africa, Central America and west Asia show several century-scale arid intervals during the Holocene1-10. These may have been caused by temporary weakening of the monsoonal circulation associated with reduced northward heat transport by the oceans7 or by feedback processes stimulated by changes in tropical land-surface conditions10. Here we use a lake-sediment record from the montane Mediterranean zone of Morocco to address the question of whether these events were also felt in temperate continental regions. We find evidence of arid intervals of similar duration, periodicity and possibly timing to those in the tropics. But our pollen data show that the forest vegetation was not substantially affected by these events, indicating that precipitation remained adequate during the summer growing season. Thus, the depletion of the groundwater aquifer that imprinted the dry events in the lake record must have resulted from reduced winter precipitation. We suggest that the occurrence of arid events during the summer in the tropics but during the winter at temperate latitudes can be rationalized if they are both associated with cooler sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic.

Global change effects on humid tropical forests: Evidence for biogeochemical and biodiversity shifts at an ecosystem scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cusack, Daniela F.; Karpman, Jason; Ashdown, Daniel; Cao, Qian; Ciochina, Mark; Halterman, Sarah; Lydon, Scott; Neupane, Avishesh

2016-09-01

Government and international agencies have highlighted the need to focus global change research efforts on tropical ecosystems. However, no recent comprehensive review exists synthesizing humid tropical forest responses across global change factors, including warming, decreased precipitation, carbon dioxide fertilization, nitrogen deposition, and land use/land cover changes. This paper assesses research across spatial and temporal scales for the tropics, including modeling, field, and controlled laboratory studies. The review aims to (1) provide a broad understanding of how a suite of global change factors are altering humid tropical forest ecosystem properties and biogeochemical processes; (2) assess spatial variability in responses to global change factors among humid tropical regions; (3) synthesize results from across humid tropical regions to identify emergent trends in ecosystem responses; (4) identify research and management priorities for the humid tropics in the context of global change. Ecosystem responses covered here include plant growth, carbon storage, nutrient cycling, biodiversity, and disturbance regime shifts. The review demonstrates overall negative effects of global change on all ecosystem properties, with the greatest uncertainty and variability in nutrient cycling responses. Generally, all global change factors reviewed, except for carbon dioxide fertilization, demonstrate great potential to trigger positive feedbacks to global warming via greenhouse gas emissions and biogeophysical changes that cause regional warming. This assessment demonstrates that effects of decreased rainfall and deforestation on tropical forests are relatively well understood, whereas the potential effects of warming, carbon dioxide fertilization, nitrogen deposition, and plant species invasions require more cross-site, mechanistic research to predict tropical forest responses at regional and global scales.

Changes in tropical precipitation cluster size distributions under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neelin, J. D.; Quinn, K. M.

2016-12-01

The total amount of precipitation integrated across a tropical storm or other precipitation feature (contiguous clusters of precipitation exceeding a minimum rain rate) is a useful measure of the aggregate size of the disturbance. To establish baseline behavior in current climate, the probability distribution of cluster sizes from multiple satellite retrievals and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis is compared to those from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory high-resolution atmospheric model (HIRAM-360 and -180). With the caveat that a minimum rain rate threshold is important in the models (which tend to overproduce low rain rates), the models agree well with observations in leading properties. In particular, scale-free power law ranges in which the probability drops slowly with increasing cluster size are well modeled, followed by a rapid drop in probability of the largest clusters above a cutoff scale. Under the RCP 8.5 global warming scenario, the models indicate substantial increases in probability (up to an order of magnitude) of the largest clusters by the end of century. For models with continuous time series of high resolution output, there is substantial spread on when these probability increases for the largest precipitation clusters should be detectable, ranging from detectable within the observational period to statistically significant trends emerging only in the second half of the century. Examination of NCEP reanalysis and SSMI/SSMIS series of satellite retrievals from 1979 to present does not yield reliable evidence of trends at this time. The results suggest improvements in inter-satellite calibration of the SSMI/SSMIS retrievals could aid future detection.

Temperature Trends in Montane Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melack, J. M.; Sadro, S.; Jellison, R.

2014-12-01

Long-term temperature trends in lakes integrate hydrological and meteorological factors. We examine temperature trends in a small montane lake with prolonged ice-cover and large seasonal snowfall and in a large saline lake. Emerald Lake, located in the Sierra Nevada (California), is representative of high-elevation lakes throughout the region. No significant trend in outflow temperature was apparent from 1991to 2012. Snowfall in the watershed accounted for 93% of the variability in average summer lake temperatures. Mono Lake (California) lies in a closed, montane basin and is hypersaline and monomictic or meromictic. Temperature profiles have been collected from 1982 to 2010. In the upper water column, the July-August-September water temperatures increased 0.8-1.0°C over the 29 years. This rate of warming is less than published estimates based on satellite-derived skin temperatures and will discussed in the context of general limnological interpretation of temperature trends.

Ice cover extent drives phytoplankton and bacterial community structure in a large north-temperate lake: implications for a warming climate.

PubMed

Beall, B F N; Twiss, M R; Smith, D E; Oyserman, B O; Rozmarynowycz, M J; Binding, C E; Bourbonniere, R A; Bullerjahn, G S; Palmer, M E; Reavie, E D; Waters, Lcdr M K; Woityra, Lcdr W C; McKay, R M L

2016-06-01

Mid-winter limnological surveys of Lake Erie captured extremes in ice extent ranging from expansive ice cover in 2010 and 2011 to nearly ice-free waters in 2012. Consistent with a warming climate, ice cover on the Great Lakes is in decline, thus the ice-free condition encountered may foreshadow the lakes future winter state. Here, we show that pronounced changes in annual ice cover are accompanied by equally important shifts in phytoplankton and bacterial community structure. Expansive ice cover supported phytoplankton blooms of filamentous diatoms. By comparison, ice free conditions promoted the growth of smaller sized cells that attained lower total biomass. We propose that isothermal mixing and elevated turbidity in the absence of ice cover resulted in light limitation of the phytoplankton during winter. Additional insights into microbial community dynamics were gleaned from short 16S rRNA tag (Itag) Illumina sequencing. UniFrac analysis of Itag sequences showed clear separation of microbial communities related to presence or absence of ice cover. Whereas the ecological implications of the changing bacterial community are unclear at this time, it is likely that the observed shift from a phytoplankton community dominated by filamentous diatoms to smaller cells will have far reaching ecosystem effects including food web disruptions. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Snowmelt Timing as a Determinant of Lake Inflow Mixing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, D. C.; Forrest, A. L.; Sahoo, G. B.; Hook, S. J.; Schladow, S. G.

2018-02-01

Snowmelt is a significant source of carbon, nutrient, and sediment loads to many mountain lakes. The mixing conditions of snowmelt inflows, which are heavily dependent on the interplay between snowmelt and lake thermal regime, dictate the fate of these loads within lakes and their ultimate impact on lake ecosystems. We use five decades of data from Lake Tahoe, a 600 year residence-time lake where snowmelt has little influence on lake temperature, to characterize the snowmelt mixing response to a range of climate conditions. Using stream discharge and lake profile data (1968-2017), we find that the proportion of annual snowmelt entering the lake prior to the onset of stratification increases as annual snowpack decreases, ranging from about 50% in heavy-snow years to close to 90% in warm, dry years. Accordingly, in 8 recent years (2010-2017) where hourly inflow buoyancy and discharge could be quantified, we find that decreased snowpack similarly increases the proportion of annual snowmelt entering the lake at weak to positive buoyancy. These responses are due to the stronger effect of winter precipitation conditions on streamflow timing and temperature than on lake stratification, and point toward increased nearshore and near-surface mixing of inflows in low-snowpack years. The response of inflow mixing conditions to snowpack is apparent when isolating temperature effects on snowpack. Snowpack levels are decreasing due to warming temperatures during winter precipitation. Thus, our findings suggest that climate change may lead to increased deposition of inflow loads in the ecologically dynamic littoral zone of high-residence time, snowmelt-fed lakes.

Invasive floating macrophytes reduce greenhouse gas emissions from a small tropical lake

PubMed Central

Attermeyer, K.; Flury, S.; Jayakumar, R.; Fiener, P.; Steger, K.; Arya, V.; Wilken, F.; van Geldern, R.; Premke, K.

2016-01-01

Floating macrophytes, including water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes), are dominant invasive organisms in tropical aquatic systems, and they may play an important role in modifying the gas exchange between water and the atmosphere. However, these systems are underrepresented in global datasets of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study investigated the carbon (C) turnover and GHG emissions from a small (0.6 km2) water-harvesting lake in South India and analysed the effect of floating macrophytes on these emissions. We measured carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emissions with gas chambers in the field as well as water C mineralization rates and physicochemical variables in both the open water and in water within stands of water hyacinths. The CO2 and CH4 emissions from areas covered by water hyacinths were reduced by 57% compared with that of open water. However, the C mineralization rates were not significantly different in the water between the two areas. We conclude that the increased invasion of water hyacinths and other floating macrophytes has the potential to change GHG emissions, a process that might be relevant in regional C budgets. PMID:26846590

Invasive floating macrophytes reduce greenhouse gas emissions from a small tropical lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attermeyer, K.; Flury, S.; Jayakumar, R.; Fiener, P.; Steger, K.; Arya, V.; Wilken, F.; van Geldern, R.; Premke, K.

2016-02-01

Floating macrophytes, including water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes), are dominant invasive organisms in tropical aquatic systems, and they may play an important role in modifying the gas exchange between water and the atmosphere. However, these systems are underrepresented in global datasets of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study investigated the carbon (C) turnover and GHG emissions from a small (0.6 km2) water-harvesting lake in South India and analysed the effect of floating macrophytes on these emissions. We measured carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emissions with gas chambers in the field as well as water C mineralization rates and physicochemical variables in both the open water and in water within stands of water hyacinths. The CO2 and CH4 emissions from areas covered by water hyacinths were reduced by 57% compared with that of open water. However, the C mineralization rates were not significantly different in the water between the two areas. We conclude that the increased invasion of water hyacinths and other floating macrophytes has the potential to change GHG emissions, a process that might be relevant in regional C budgets.

Small change, big difference: Sea surface temperature distributions for tropical coral reef ecosystems, 1950-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lough, J. M.

2012-09-01

Changes in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) are examined over the period 1950-2011 during which global average temperature warmed by 0.4°C. Average tropical SST is warming about 70% of the global average rate. Spatially, significant warming between the two time periods, 1950-1980 and 1981-2011, has occurred across 65% of the tropical oceans. Coral reef ecosystems occupy 10% of the tropical oceans, typically in regions of warmer (+1.8°C) and less variable SST (80% of months within 3.3°C range) compared to non-reef areas (80% of months within 7.0°C range). SST is a primary controlling factor of coral reef distribution and coral reef organisms have already shown their sensitivity to the relatively small amount of warming observed so far through, for example, more frequent coral bleaching events and outbreaks of coral disease. Experimental evidence is also emerging of possible thermal thresholds in the range 30°C-32°C for some physiological processes of coral reef organisms. Relatively small changes in SST have already resulted in quite large differences in SST distribution with a maximum ‘hot spot’ of change in the near-equatorial Indo-Pacific which encompasses both the Indo-Pacific warm pools and the center of coral reef biodiversity. Identification of this hot spot of SST change is not new but this study highlights its significance with respect to tropical coral reef ecosystems. Given the modest amount of warming to date, changes in SST distribution are of particular concern for coral reefs given additional local anthropogenic stresses on many reefs and ongoing ocean acidification likely to increasingly compromise coral reef processes.

Interactions between rates of temperature change and acclimation affect latitudinal patterns of warming tolerance

PubMed Central

Allen, Jessica L; Chown, Steven L; Janion-Scheepers, Charlene; Clusella-Trullas, Susana

2016-01-01

Abstract Critical thermal limits form an increasing component of the estimation of impacts of global change on ectotherms. Whether any consistent patterns exist in the interactive effects of rates of temperature change (or experimental ramping rates) and acclimation on critical thermal limits and warming tolerance (one way of assessing sensitivity to climate change) is, however, far from clear. Here, we examine the interacting effects of ramping rate and acclimation on the critical thermal maxima (CTmax) and minima (CTmin) and warming tolerance of six species of springtails from sub-tropical, temperate and polar regions. We also provide microhabitat temperatures from 26 sites spanning 5 years in order to benchmark environmentally relevant rates of temperature change. Ramping rate has larger effects than acclimation on CTmax, but the converse is true for CTmin. Responses to rate and acclimation effects are more consistent among species for CTmax than for CTmin. In the latter case, interactions among ramping rate and acclimation are typical of polar species, less marked for temperate ones, and reduced in species from the sub-tropics. Ramping rate and acclimation have substantial effects on estimates of warming tolerance, with the former being more marked. At the fastest ramping rates (>1.0°C/min), tropical species have estimated warming tolerances similar to their temperate counterparts, whereas at slow ramping rates (<0.4°C/min) the warming tolerance is much reduced in tropical species. Rates of temperate change in microhabitats relevant to the springtails are typically <0.05°C/min, with rare maxima of 0.3–0.5°C/min depending on the site. These findings emphasize the need to consider the environmental setting and experimental conditions when assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change using a warming tolerance approach. PMID:27933165

Interactions between rates of temperature change and acclimation affect latitudinal patterns of warming tolerance.

PubMed

Allen, Jessica L; Chown, Steven L; Janion-Scheepers, Charlene; Clusella-Trullas, Susana

2016-01-01

Critical thermal limits form an increasing component of the estimation of impacts of global change on ectotherms. Whether any consistent patterns exist in the interactive effects of rates of temperature change (or experimental ramping rates) and acclimation on critical thermal limits and warming tolerance (one way of assessing sensitivity to climate change) is, however, far from clear. Here, we examine the interacting effects of ramping rate and acclimation on the critical thermal maxima (CTmax) and minima (CTmin) and warming tolerance of six species of springtails from sub-tropical, temperate and polar regions. We also provide microhabitat temperatures from 26 sites spanning 5 years in order to benchmark environmentally relevant rates of temperature change. Ramping rate has larger effects than acclimation on CTmax, but the converse is true for CTmin. Responses to rate and acclimation effects are more consistent among species for CTmax than for CTmin. In the latter case, interactions among ramping rate and acclimation are typical of polar species, less marked for temperate ones, and reduced in species from the sub-tropics. Ramping rate and acclimation have substantial effects on estimates of warming tolerance, with the former being more marked. At the fastest ramping rates (>1.0°C/min), tropical species have estimated warming tolerances similar to their temperate counterparts, whereas at slow ramping rates (<0.4°C/min) the warming tolerance is much reduced in tropical species. Rates of temperate change in microhabitats relevant to the springtails are typically <0.05°C/min, with rare maxima of 0.3-0.5°C/min depending on the site. These findings emphasize the need to consider the environmental setting and experimental conditions when assessing species' vulnerability to climate change using a warming tolerance approach.

Threshold sensitivity of shallow Arctic lakes and sublake permafrost to changing winter climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Grosse, Guido; Bondurant, Allen C.; Romanovksy, Vladimir E.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Parsekian, Andrew D.

2016-01-01

Interactions and feedbacks between abundant surface waters and permafrost fundamentally shape lowland Arctic landscapes. Sublake permafrost is maintained when the maximum ice thickness (MIT) exceeds lake depth and mean annual bed temperatures (MABTs) remain below freezing. However, declining MIT since the 1970s is likely causing talik development below shallow lakes. Here we show high-temperature sensitivity to winter ice growth at the water-sediment interface of shallow lakes based on year-round lake sensor data. Empirical model experiments suggest that shallow (1 m depth) lakes have warmed substantially over the last 30 years (2.4°C), with MABT above freezing 5 of the last 7 years. This is in comparison to slower rates of warming in deeper (3 m) lakes (0.9°C), with already well-developed taliks. Our findings indicate that permafrost below shallow lakes has already begun crossing a critical thawing threshold approximately 70 years prior to predicted terrestrial permafrost thaw in northern Alaska.

Night ventilation at courtyard housing estate in warm humid tropic for sustainable environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Defiana, Ima; Teddy Badai Samodra, FX; Setyawan, Wahyu

2018-03-01

The problem in the night-time for warm humid tropic housing estate is thermal discomfort. Heat gains accumulation from building envelope, internal heat gains and activities of occupants influence indoor thermal comfort. Ventilation is needed for transfer or removes heat gains accumulation to outdoor. This study describes the role of an inner courtyard to promote pressure difference. Pressure difference as a wind driven force to promote wind velocity thereby could transfer indoor heat gains accumulation to outdoor of building. A simulation used as the research method for prediction wind velocity. Purposive sampling used as the method to choose building sample with similar inner courtyards. The field survey was conducted to obtain data of inner courtyard typologies and two housing were used as model simulation. Furthermore, the simulation is running in steady state mode, at 05.00 pm when the occupants usually close window. But the window should be opened in the night-time to transfer indoor heat gain to outdoor. The result shows that the factor influencing physiological cooling as consequences of inner courtyard are height to width ratio, the distance between inner courtyard to windward, window configuration and the inner courtyard design-the proportion between the length, the width, and the height.

Elevated temperature and acclimation time affect metabolic performance in the heavily exploited Nile perch of Lake Victoria.

PubMed

Nyboer, Elizabeth A; Chapman, Lauren J

2017-10-15

Increasing water temperatures owing to anthropogenic climate change are predicted to negatively impact the aerobic metabolic performance of aquatic ectotherms. Specifically, it has been hypothesized that thermal increases result in reductions in aerobic scope (AS), which lead to decreases in energy available for essential fitness and performance functions. Consequences of warming are anticipated to be especially severe for warm-adapted tropical species as they are thought to have narrow thermal windows and limited plasticity for coping with elevated temperatures. In this study we test how predicted warming may affect the aerobic performance of Nile perch ( Lates niloticus ), a commercially harvested fish species in the Lake Victoria basin of East Africa. We measured critical thermal maxima (CT max ) and key metabolic variables such as AS and excess post-exercise oxygen consumption (EPOC) across a range of temperatures, and compared responses between acute (3-day) exposures and 3-week acclimations. CT max increased with acclimation temperature; however, 3-week-acclimated fish had higher overall CT max than acutely exposed individuals. Nile perch also showed the capacity to increase or maintain high AS even at temperatures well beyond their current range; however, acclimated Nile perch had lower AS compared with acutely exposed fish. These changes were accompanied by lower EPOC, suggesting that drops in AS may reflect improved energy utilization after acclimation, a finding that is supported by improvements in growth at high temperatures over the acclimation period. Overall, the results challenge predictions that tropical species have limited thermal plasticity, and that high temperatures will be detrimental because of limitations in AS. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Lake Tahoe Ca-Nv USA to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahoo, G. B.; Schladow, S. G.; Reuter, J. E.; Coats, R. N.

2011-12-01

Observational studies indicate that climate at Lake Tahoe (CA-NV) basin is changing at faster rate. The impact of climate change on the lake was investigated using a suite of models and bias-corrected downscaled climate dataset generated from global circulation models. Our results indicate an increase of air temperature, a shift of snow to rainfall, a decrease of wind speed, and an onset of earlier snowmelt during the 21st Century. Combined, these changes could affect lake dynamics, ecosystems, water supply, and the winter recreational sport industry. The lake may fail to mix completely by the middle of this Century due to lake warming. Under this condition bottom dissolved oxygen would not be replenished leading to the significant release of bio-stimulatory ammonium-nitrogen and soluble phosphorus from the sediment. Both these nutrients are known to cause increased algal growth in the lake and would likely result in major changes to the lake's water quality and food web. Lake warming also increases water loss through evaporation, resulting in less available water for downstream domestic supply, agriculture, and recreation. Population growth and increased human demand for water will compound severity of problems in water quantity and quality. Thus, watershed planning and management should assess vulnerability to climatic variations through the application of basin-wide hydro-climatology, watershed soils, and lake response models to (1) improve drought, flood, and forest-fire forecasting, (2) assess hydrological trends, (3) estimate the potential effects of climate change on surface runoff and pollutant loads, and (4) evaluate response from various adaptation strategies.

Climate-driven changes in grassland vegetation, snow cover, and lake water of the Qinghai Lake basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xuelu; Liang, Tiangang; Xie, Hongjie; Huang, Xiaodong; Lin, Huilong

2016-07-01

Qinghai Lake basin and the lake have undergone significant changes in recent decades. We examine MODIS-derived grassland vegetation and snow cover of the Qinghai Lake basin and their relations with climate parameters during 2001 to 2010. Results show: (1) temperature and precipitation of the Qinghai Lake basin increased while evaporation decreased; (2) most of the grassland areas improved due to increased temperature and growing season precipitation; (3) weak relations between snow cover and precipitation/vegetation; (4) a significantly negative correlation between lake area and temperature (r=-0.9, p<0.05) and (5) a positive relation between lake level (lake-level difference) and temperature (precipitation). Compared with Namco Lake (located in the inner Tibetan Plateau) where the primary water source of lake level increases was the accelerated melt of glacier/perennial snow cover in the lake basin, for the Qinghai Lake, however, it was the increased precipitation. Increased precipitation explained the improvement of vegetation cover in the Qinghai Lake basin, while accelerated melt of glacier/perennial snow cover was responsible for the degradation of vegetation cover in Namco Lake basin. These results suggest different responses to the similar warming climate: improved (degraded) ecological condition and productive capacity of the Qinghai Lake basin (Namco Lake basin).

Environmental changes in the Tule Lake basin, Siskiyou and Modoc Counties, California, from 3 to 2 million years before present

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adam, David P.; Bradbury, J. Platt; Rieck, Hugh J.; Sarna-Wojcicki, Andrei M.

1990-01-01

Pollen and diatom analyses of a core from the town of Tulelake, Siskiyou County, California, for the period between 3 and 2 Ma reveal a paleoclimatic and paleolimnologic sequence recording a long, warm time interval that lasted from about 2.9 to 2.6 Ma and had a short, cooler interval within it. During this warm interval, the regional vegetation surrounding ancient Tule Lake was a mixed coniferous forest, and Tule Lake was a warm monomictic lake. Approximate modern analogs for this Pliocene fossil record at Tulelake are found at least 2 degrees farther south. The Tulelake warm interval appears to have correlatives in the North Atlantic oxygen isotope record and in the pollen record of the Reuverian in the Netherlands. An interval beginning at about 2.4 Ma was characterized at Tule Lake by slow sedimentation, by changes in the relative amounts of algae in the lake, and by an increase in the maximum percentages of Artemisia pollen.

Impact of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis in coupled and forced simulations: role of SST spatial anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royer, Jean-François; Chauvin, Fabrice; Daloz, Anne-Sophie

2010-05-01

The response of tropical cyclones (TC) activity to global warming has not yet reached a clear consensus in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) or in the recent scientific literature. Observed series are neither long nor reliable enough for a statistically significant detection and attribution of past TC trends, and coupled climate models give widely divergent results for the future evolution of TC activity in the different ocean basins. The potential importance of the spatial structure of the future SST warming has been pointed out by Chauvin et al. (2006) in simulations performed at CNRM with the ARPEGE-Climat GCM. The current presentation describes a new set of simulations that have been performed with the ARPEGE-Climat model to try to understand the possible role of SST patterns in the TC cyclogenesis response in 15 CMIP3 coupled simulations analysed by Royer et al (2009). The new simulations have been performed with the atmospheric component of the ARPEGE-Climat GCM forced in 10 year simulations by the SST patterns from each of 15 CMIP3 simulations with different climate model at the end of the 21st century according to scenario A2. The TC analysis is based on the computation of a Convective Yearly Genesis Parameter (CYGP) and the Genesis Potential Index (GPI). The computed genesis indices for each of the ARPEGE-Climat forced simulations is compared with the indices computed directly from the initial coupled simulation. The influence of SST patterns can then be more easily assessed since all the ARPEGE-Climat simulations are performed with the same atmospheric model, whereas the original simulations used models with different parameterization and resolutions. The analysis shows that CYGP or GPI anomalies obtained with ARPEGE are as variable between each other as those obtained originally by the different IPCC models. The variety of SST patterns used to force ARPEGE explains a large part of

Positive Low Cloud and Dust Feedbacks Amplify Tropical North Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yuan, Tianle; Oraiopoulos, Lazaros; Zelinka, Mark; Yu, Hongbin; Norris, Joel R.; Chin, Mian; Platnick, Steven; Meyer, Kerry

2016-01-01

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is characterized by a horseshoe pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and has a wide range of climatic impacts. While the tropical arm of AMO is responsible for many of these impacts, it is either too weak or completely absent in many climate model simulations. Here we show, using both observational and model evidence, that the radiative effect of positive low cloud and dust feedbacks is strong enough to generate the tropical arm of AMO, with the low cloud feedback more dominant. The feedbacks can be understood in a consistent dynamical framework: weakened tropical trade wind speed in response to a warm middle latitude SST anomaly reduces dust loading and low cloud fraction over the tropical Atlantic, which warms the tropical North Atlantic SST. Together they contribute to appearance of the tropical arm of AMO. Most current climate models miss both the critical wind speed response and two positive feedbacks though realistic simulations of them may be essential for many climatic studies related to the AMO.

Hiatus on the upward staircase of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, S. P.; Kosaka, Y.

2016-12-01

Since the 19th century, global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has risen in staircase-like stages due to contributions from both radiative forcing and internal variability. Our earlier study showed that tropical Pacific variability, specifically the La Nina-like cooling, caused the current hiatus of global warming. We have extended the Pacific Ocean-Global Atmosphere (POGA) pacemaker experiment back to the late 19th century, by restoring tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies towards the observed history. POGA reproduces annual-mean GMST variability with high correlation. We quantify relative contributions from the radiative forcing and tropical Pacific variability for various epochs of the staircase. Beyond the global mean, POGA also captures observed regional trends of surface temperature for these periods, especially over the tropical Indian Ocean, Indian subcontinent, North and South Pacific and North America. The POGA effect for the recent hiatus is comparable in magnitude with that at the beginning of the 20th century, but lasts the longest in duration over the past 150 years. The attendant strengthening of the Pacific trade winds since the 1990s is unprecedented on the instrumental record. To the extent that POGA captures much of the internal variability in GMST, we can infer radiatively forced GMST response. This method has the advantage of being independent of the model's radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. While raw data show a warming of 0.9 degree C for the recent five-year period of 2010-2014 relative to 1900, our new calculation yields a much higher anthropogenic warming of 1.2 C after correcting for the internal variability effect. This indicates that the task is more challenging than thought to implement the Paris consensus of limiting global average temperature change to below 2 C above preindustrial levels.

Eastern Tropical Pacific Precipitation Response to Zonal SPCZ events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durán-Quesada, A. M.; Lintner, B. R.

2014-12-01

Extreme El Niño events and warming conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific have been linked to pronounced spatial displacements of the South Pacific Convergence Zone known as "zonal SPCZ" events.. Using a global dataset of Lagrangian back trajectories computed with the FLEXPART model for the period 1980-2013, comprehensive analysis of the 3D circulation characteristics associated with the SPCZ is undertaken. Ten days history of along-trajectory specific humidity, potential vorticity and temperature are reconstructed for zonal SPCZ events as well as other states,, with differences related to El Niño intensity and development stage as well as the state of the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool. How zonal events influence precipitation over the Eastern Tropical Pacific is examined using back trajectories, reanalysis, TRMM precipitation, and additional satellite derived cloud information. It is found that SPCZ displacements are associated with enhanced convection over the Eastern Tropical Pacific in good agreement with prior work. The connection between intensification of precipitation over the eastern Tropical Pacific during zonal events and suppression of rainfall over the Maritime continent is also described.

Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, W.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Wittenberg, A.

2009-08-01

The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly sensitive to the concentration and distribution of ocean chlorophyll. Setting the near-oligotrophic regions to contain optically pure water warms the mean state and suppresses variability in the western tropical Pacific. Doing the same above the shadow zones of the tropical Pacific also warms the mean state but enhances the variability. It is shown that increasing penetration can both deepen the pycnocline (which tends to damp El Niño) while shifting the mean circulation so that the wind response to temperature changes is altered. Depending on what region is involved this change in the wind stress can either strengthen or weaken ENSO variability.

Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, W.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Wittenberg, A.

2009-02-01

The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly sensitive to the concentration and distribution of ocean chlorophyll. Setting the near-oligotrophic regions to contain optically pure water warms the mean state and suppresses variability in the western tropical Pacific. Doing the same above the shadow zones of the tropical Pacific also warms the mean state but enhances the variability. It is shown that increasing penetration can both deepen the pycnocline (which tends to damp El Niño) while shifting the mean circulation so that the wind response to temperature changes is altered. Depending on what region is involved this change in the wind stress can either strengthen or weaken ENSO variability.

Phenology of temperate trees in tropical climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borchert, Rolf; Robertson, Kevin; Schwartz, Mark D.; Williams-Linera, Guadalupe

2005-09-01

Several North American broad-leaved tree species range from the northern United States at ˜47°N to moist tropical montane forests in Mexico and Central America at 15-20°N. Along this gradient the average minimum temperatures of the coldest month (T Jan), which characterize annual variation in temperature, increase from -10 to 12°C and tree phenology changes from deciduous to leaf-exchanging or evergreen in the southern range with a year-long growing season. Between 30 and 45°N, the time of bud break is highly correlated with T Jan and bud break can be reliably predicted for the week in which mean minimum temperature rises to 7°C. Temperature-dependent deciduous phenology—and hence the validity of temperature-driven phenology models—terminates in southern North America near 30°N, where T Jan>7°C enables growth of tropical trees and cultivation of frost-sensitive citrus fruits. In tropical climates most temperate broad-leaved species exchange old for new leaves within a few weeks in January-February, i.e., their phenology becomes similar to that of tropical leaf-exchanging species. Leaf buds of the southern ecotypes of these temperate species are therefore not winter-dormant and have no chilling requirement. As in many tropical trees, bud break of Celtis, Quercus and Fagus growing in warm climates is induced in early spring by increasing daylength. In tropical climates vegetative phenology is determined mainly by leaf longevity, seasonal variation in water stress and day length. As water stress during the dry season varies widely with soil water storage, climate-driven models cannot predict tree phenology in the tropics and tropical tree phenology does not constitute a useful indicator of global warming.

Profile of micronucleus frequencies and DNA damage in different species of fish in a eutrophic tropical lake

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Lake Paranoá is a tropical reservoir for the City of Brasilia, which became eutrophic due to inadequate sewage treatment associated with intensive population growth. At present, two wastewater treatment plants are capable of processing up to 95% of the domestic sewage, thereby successfully reducing eutrophization. We evaluated both genotoxic and cytotoxic parameters in several fish species (Geophagus brasiliensis, Cichla temensis, Hoplias malabaricus, Astyanax bimaculatus lacustres, Oreochromis niloticus, Cyprinus carpio and Steindachnerina insculpita) by using the micronucleus (MN) test, the comet assay and nuclear abnormality assessment in peripheral erythrocytes. The highest frequencies of MN were found in Cichla temensis and Hoplias malabaricus, which were statistically significant when compared to the other species. However, Steindachnerina insculpita (a detritivorous and lake-floor feeder species) showed the highest index of DNA damage in the comet assay, followed by C. temensis (piscivorous). Nuclear abnormalities, such as binucleated, blebbed, lobed and notched cells, were used as evidence of cytotoxicity. Oreochromis niloticus followed by Hoplias malaricus, ominivorous/detritivotous and piscivorous species, respectively, presented the highest frequency of nuclear abnormalities, especially notched cells, while the herbivorous Astyanax bimaculatus lacustres showed the lowest frequency compared to the other species studied. Thus, for biomonitoring aquatic genotoxins under field conditions, the food web should also be considered. PMID:21637659

Tropical African Glacier Fluctuations During Termination 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, M. S.; Kelly, M. A.; Russell, J. M.; Doughty, A. M.; Howley, J. A.; Zimmerman, S. R. H.

2017-12-01

As the primary source of latent heat and water vapor to the atmosphere, the tropics are a key element of Earth's climate system. However, the potential role of the tropics in past climate change, and particularly abrupt climate changes, is uncertain. A first step to assessing the role of the low latitudes in both past and future climate is to determine the timing and spatial variability of past climate change in the tropics. Termination 1, the time of most rapid global warming of the last glacial cycle, is an ideal period on which to focus. We present a 10Be chronology of glaciation from the Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda, which elucidates the timing and magnitude of deglacial warming in the African tropics through the Termination, from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Holocene. Ice retreated from its maximum LGM extent by 20.7 ka. In the Bujuku valley, a series of nested moraines deposited between 15-14 ka attest to late-glacial ice extent. In both the Bujuku and Nyamugasani valleys, moraine sequences and erratic boulders indicate glacier retreat following the Younger Dryas (YD) and during the early Holocene. The preliminary chronology from these moraines suggests that glaciers were more extensive during the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) than during the YD. This chronology is similar to that observed in the South American tropics, where expanded glaciers during the ACR are recognized across the high Andes. This suggests that glaciers across the tropics responded to a common forcing during Termination 1, likely temperature. Possible mechanisms to induce such temperature change include global climate boundary conditions, and greenhouse gas forcing in particular, as well as tropical ocean variability.

Tropical warming and the dynamics of endangered primates.

PubMed

Wiederholt, Ruscena; Post, Eric

2010-04-23

Many primate species are severely threatened, but little is known about the effects of global warming and the associated intensification of El Niño events on primate populations. Here, we document the influences of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) and hemispheric climatic variability on the population dynamics of four genera of ateline (neotropical, large-bodied) primates. All ateline genera experienced either an immediate or a lagged negative effect of El Niño events. ENSO events were also found to influence primate resource levels through neotropical arboreal phenology. Furthermore, frugivorous primates showed a high degree of interspecific population synchrony over large scales across Central and South America attributable to the recent trends in large-scale climate. These results highlight the role of large-scale climatic variation and trends in ateline primate population dynamics, and emphasize that global warming could pose additional threats to the persistence of multiple species of endangered primates.

On the impact of the resolution on the surface and subsurface Eastern Tropical Atlantic warm bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martín-Rey, Marta; Lazar, Alban

2016-04-01

The tropical variability has a great importance for the climate of adjacent areas. Its sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) affect in particular the Brazilian Nordeste and the Sahelian region, as well as the tropical Pacific or the Euro-Atlantic sector. Nevertheless, the state-of the art climate models exhibits very large systematic errors in reproducing the seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability in the equatorial and coastal Africa upwelling zones (up to several °C for SST). Theses biases exist already, in smaller proportions though, in forced ocean models (several 1/10th of °C), and affect not only the mixed layer but also the whole thermocline. Here, we present an analysis of the impact of horizontal and vertical resolution changes on these biases. Three different DRAKKAR NEMO OGCM simulations have been analysed, associated to the same forcing set (DFS4.4) with different grid resolutions: "REF" for reference (1/4°, 46 vertical levels), "HH" with a finer horizontal grid (1/12°, 46 v.l.) and "HV" with a finer vertical grid (1/4°, 75 v.l.). At the surface, a more realistic seasonal SST cycle is produced in HH in the three upwellings, where the warm bias decreases (by 10% - 20%) during boreal spring and summer. A notable result is that increasing vertical resolution in HV causes a shift (in advance) of the upwelling SST seasonal cycles. In order to better understand these results, we estimate the three upwelling subsurface temperature errors, using various in-situ datasets, and provide thus a three-dimensional view of the biases.

Vegetation responses to interglacial warming in the Arctic: examples from Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lozhkin, A. V.; Anderson, P. M.

2013-06-01

Preliminary analyses of Lake El'gygytgyn sediment indicate a wide range of ecosystem responses to warmer than present climates. While palynological work describing all interglacial vegetation is ongoing, sufficient data exist to compare recent warm events (the postglacial thermal maximum, PGTM, and marine isotope stage, MIS5) with "super" interglaciations (MIS11, MIS31). Palynological assemblages associated with these climatic optima suggest two types of vegetation responses: one dominated by deciduous taxa (PGTM, MIS5) and the second by evergreen conifers (MIS11, MIS31). MIS11 forests show a similarity to modern Picea-Larix-Betula-Alnus forests of Siberia. While dark coniferous forest also characterizes MIS31, the pollen taxa show an affinity to the boreal forest of the lower Amur valley (southern Russian Far East). Despite vegetation differences during these thermal maxima, all glacial-interglacial transitions are alike, being dominated by deciduous woody taxa. Initially Betula shrub tundra established and was replaced by tundra with tree-sized shrubs (PGTM), Betula woodland (MIS5), or Betula-Larix (MIS11, MIS31) forest. The consistent occurrence of deciduous forest and/or high shrub tundra before the incidence of maximum warmth underscores the importance of this biome for modeling efforts. The El'gygytgyn data also suggest a possible elimination or massive reduction of Arctic plant communities under extreme warm-earth scenarios.

Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, D. J.; Haywood, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Hunter, S. J.; Bragg, F. J.; Contoux, C.; Stepanek, C.; Sohl, L.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Chan, W.-L.;

A spurious warming trend in the NMME equatorial Pacific SST hindcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Chul-Su; Huang, Bohua

2017-06-01

Using seasonal hindcasts of six different models participating in the North American Multimodel Ensemble project, the trend of the predicted sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific for 1982-2014 at each lead month and its temporal evolution with respect to the lead month are investigated for all individual models. Since the coupled models are initialized with the observed ocean, atmosphere, land states from observation-based reanalysis, some of them using their own data assimilation process, one would expect that the observed SST trend is reasonably well captured in their seasonal predictions. However, although the observed SST features a weak-cooling trend for the 33-year period with La Niña-like spatial pattern in the tropical central-eastern Pacific all year round, it is demonstrated that all models having a time-dependent realistic concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) display a warming trend in the equatorial Pacific that amplifies as the lead-time increases. In addition, these models' behaviors are nearly independent of the starting month of the hindcasts although the growth rates of the trend vary with the lead month. This key characteristic of the forecasted SST trend in the equatorial Pacific is also identified in the NCAR CCSM3 hindcasts that have the GHG concentration for a fixed year. This suggests that a global warming forcing may not play a significant role in generating the spurious warming trend of the coupled models' SST hindcasts in the tropical Pacific. This model SST trend in the tropical central-eastern Pacific, which is opposite to the observed one, causes a developing El Niño-like warming bias in the forecasted SST with its peak in boreal winter. Its implications for seasonal prediction are discussed.

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

PubMed Central

Carey, Michael P; Zimmerman, Christian E

2014-01-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to

A drinking water crisis in Lake Taihu, China: linkage to climatic variability and lake management.

PubMed

Qin, Boqiang; Zhu, Guangwei; Gao, Guang; Zhang, Yunlin; Li, Wei; Paerl, Hans W; Carmichael, Wayne W

2010-01-01

In late May, 2007, a drinking water crisis took place in Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, China, following a massive bloom of the toxin producing cyanobacteria Microcystis spp. in Lake Taihu, China's third largest freshwater lake. Taihu was the city's sole water supply, leaving approximately two million people without drinking water for at least a week. This cyanobacterial bloom event began two months earlier than previously documented for Microcystis blooms in Taihu. This was attributed to an unusually warm spring. The prevailing wind direction during this period caused the bloom to accumulate at the shoreline near the intake of the water plant. Water was diverted from the nearby Yangtze River in an effort to flush the lake of the bloom. However, this management action was counterproductive, because it produced a current which transported the bloom into the intake, exacerbating the drinking water contamination problem. The severity of this microcystin toxin containing bloom and the ensuing drinking water crisis were attributable to excessive nutrient enrichment; however, a multi-annual warming trend extended the bloom period and amplified its severity, and this was made worse by unanticipated negative impacts of water management. Long-term management must therefore consider both the human and climatic factors controlling these blooms and their impacts on water supply in this and other large lakes threatened by accelerating eutrophication.

Direct Contribution of the Stratosphere to Recent West Antarctic Warming in Austral Spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolas, J. P.; Bromwich, D. H.

2015-12-01

The causes of the rapid warming of West Antarctica in recent decades are not yet fully understood. Thus far, investigations of the phenomenon have emphasized the role of tropospheric teleconnections originating from the Tropics in austral winter, but have had less success in explaining the strong warming in austral spring (SON). Here, we further explore the mechanisms behind the SON warming by focusing on September, the month during which atmospheric temperature and circulation trends in and around West Antarctica largely account for the 3-month average SON trends. We show that the tropospheric trends toward lower pressures/heights (more cyclonic) over the South Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean previously reported extend vertically well into the stratosphere. In the lower troposphere, these circulation changes, by steering more warm air toward West Antarctica, have likely contributed to the warming of the region. In the stratosphere, we provide evidence that the cyclonic trends are associated with a very prominent stratospheric warming in the Australian sector, believed to be the result of increased tropically-forced planetary wave activity and wave breaking. Through thermal wind balance, this regional stratospheric warming has led to a poleward displacement of the polar-night jet south of Australia, leading to enhanced cyclonic motion and potential vorticity (PV) downwind over the Amundsen Sea region. Finally, we establish, through the PV inversion framework, a causal link between stratospheric and tropospheric changes, whereby large PV anomalies in the stratosphere induce consistent geopotential height anomalies down in the troposphere. Our results highlight not only the important and largely overlooked role played by the stratosphere in recent West Antarctic climate change, but also a new pathway for tropical climate variability to influence Antarctic climate.

Warming off southwestern Japan linked to distributional shifts of subtidal canopy-forming seaweeds.

PubMed

Tanaka, Kouki; Taino, Seiya; Haraguchi, Hiroko; Prendergast, Gabrielle; Hiraoka, Masanori

2012-11-01

To assess distributional shifts of species in response to recent warming, historical distribution records are the most requisite information. The surface seawater temperature (SST) of Kochi Prefecture, southwestern Japan on the western North Pacific, has significantly risen, being warmed by the Kuroshio Current. Past distributional records of subtidal canopy-forming seaweeds (Laminariales and Fucales) exist at about 10-year intervals from the 1970s, along with detailed SST datasets at several sites along Kochi's >700 km coastline. In order to provide a clear picture of distributional shifts of coastal marine organisms in response to warming SST, we observed the present distribution of seaweeds and analyzed the SST datasets to estimate spatiotemporal SST trends in this coastal region. We present a large increase of 0.3°C/decade in the annual mean SST of this area over the past 40 years. Furthermore, a comparison of the previous and present distributions clearly showed the contraction of temperate species' distributional ranges and expansion of tropical species' distributional ranges in the seaweeds. Although the main temperate kelp Ecklonia (Laminariales) had expanded their distribution during periods of cooler SST, they subsequently declined as the SST warmed. Notably, the warmest SST of the 1997-98 El Niño Southern Oscillation event was the most likely cause of a widespread destruction of the kelp populations; no recovery was found even in the present survey at the formerly habitable sites where warm SSTs have been maintained. Temperate Sargassum spp. (Fucales) that dominated widely in the 1970s also declined in accordance with recent warming SSTs. In contrast, the tropical species, S. ilicifolium, has gradually expanded its distribution to become the most conspicuously dominant among the present observations. Thermal gradients, mainly driven by the warming Kuroshio Current, are presented as an explanation for the successive changes in both temperate and

Detecting Trends in Tropical Rainfall Characteristics, 1979-2003

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2006-01-01

From analyses of blended space-based and ground-based global rainfall data, we found increasing trends in the occurrence of extreme heavy and light rain events, coupled to a decreasing trend in moderate rain events in the tropics during 1979-2003. The trends are consistent with a shift in the large-scale circulation associated with a) a relatively uniform increase in warm rain over the tropical oceans, b) enhanced ice-phase rain over the near-equatorial oceans, and c) reduced mixed-phase rain over the tropical ocean and land regions. Due to the large compensation among different rain categories, the total tropical rainfall trend remained undetectable.

Effects of Cloud-Microphysics on Tropical Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes in the GEOS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, G. K.

2004-01-01

The sensitivity of tropical atmospheric hydrologic processes to cloud-microphysics is investigated using the NASA GEOS GCM. Results show that a faster autoconversion - rate produces more warm rain and less clouds at all levels. Fewer clouds enhances longwave cooling and reduces shortwave heating in the upper troposphere, while more warm rain produces increased condensation heating in the lower troposphere. This vertical heating differential destablizes the tropical atmosphere, producing a positive feedback resulting in more rain over the tropics. The feedback is maintained via a two-cell secondary circulation. The lower cell is capped by horizontal divergence and maximum cloud detrainment near the melting/freezing, with rising motion in the warm rain region connected to descending motion in the cold rain region. The upper cell is found above the freezing/melting level, with longwave-induced subsidence in the warm rain and dry regions, coupled to forced ascent in the deep convection region. The tropical large scale circulation is found to be very sensitive to the radiative-dynamic effects induced by changes in autoconversion rate. Reduced cloud-radiation processes feedback due to a faster autoconversion rate results in intermittent but more energetic eastward propagating Madden and Julian Oscillations (MJO). Conversely,-a slower autconversion rate, with increased cloud radiation produces MJO's with more realistic westward propagating transients, resembling a supercloud cluster structure. Results suggests that warm rain and associated low and mid level clouds, i.e., cumulus congestus, may play a critical role in regulating the time-intervals of deep convections and hence the fundamental time scales of the MJO.

Lake sediment records on climate change and human activities in the Xingyun Lake catchment, SW China.

PubMed

Zhang, Wenxiang; Ming, Qingzhong; Shi, Zhengtao; Chen, Guangjie; Niu, Jie; Lei, Guoliang; Chang, Fengqin; Zhang, Hucai

2014-01-01

Sediments from Xinyun Lake in central Yunnan, southwest China, provide a record of environmental history since the Holocene. With the application of multi-proxy indicators (total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), δ13C and δ15N isotopes, C/N ratio, grain size, magnetic susceptibility (MS) and CaCO3 content), as well as accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C datings, four major climatic stages during the Holocene have been identified in Xingyun's catchment. A marked increase in lacustrine palaeoproductivity occurred from 11.06 to 9.98 cal. ka BP, which likely resulted from an enhanced Asian southwest monsoon and warm-humid climate. Between 9.98 and 5.93 cal. ka BP, a gradually increased lake level might have reached the optimum water depth, causing a marked decline in coverage by aquatic plants and lake productivity of the lake. This was caused by strong Asian southwest monsoon, and coincided with the global Holocene Optimum. During the period of 5.60-1.35 cal. ka BP, it resulted in a warm and dry climate at this stage, which is comparable to the aridification of India during the mid- and late Holocene. The intensifying human activity and land-use in the lake catchment since the early Tang Dynasty (∼1.35 cal. ka BP) were associated with the ancient Dian culture within Xingyun's catchment. The extensive deforestation and development of agriculture in the lake catchment caused heavy soil loss. Our study clearly shows that long-term human activities and land-use change have strongly impacted the evolution of the lake environment and therefore modulated the sediment records of the regional climate in central Yunnan for more than one thousand years.

ENSO/PDO-Like Variability of Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Fluxes Over the Satellite Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, F. R.; Miller, Tim L.

2008-01-01

Recent variations of tropical climate on interannual to near-decadal scales have provided a useful target for studying the nature of climate feedback processes. A strong warm / cold ENSO couplet (e.g. 1997-2000) along with several subsequent weaker events are prominent interannual signals that are part of an apparent longer term strengthening of the Walker circulation during the mid to late 1990's with some weakening thereafter. Decadal scale changes in tropical SST structure during the 1990s are accompanied by focusing of precipitation over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and an increase in tropical ocean evaporation of order 1.0 % /decade. Associated with ENSO and PDO-like tropical SST changes are surface freshwater and radiative fluxes which have important implications for heat and energy transport variations. In this study we examine how surface fluxes attending interannual to decadal SST fluctuations, e.g. precipitation (GPCP, TRMM), turbulent fluxes (OAFlux), and radiative fluxes (ERBE/CERES, SRB) are coupled. Using these data we analyze vertically-integrated divergence of moist static energy, divMSE, and its dry static energy and latent energy components. We examine consistency between these data sets and explore relationships between SST variations, flux changes and modulation of tropical Walker and Hadley circulations. Strong signatures ofMSE flux transport linking ascending and descending regions of tropical circulations are found. Relative strengths of these fluxes and transports are interpreted as a measure of efficiency in the overall process of tropical heat balance during episodes of warm or cold tropical SST.

Weakened stratospheric quasibiennial oscillation driven by increased tropical mean upwelling.

PubMed

Kawatani, Yoshio; Hamilton, Kevin

2013-05-23

The zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere switches between prevailing easterlies and westerlies with a period of about 28 months. In the lowermost stratosphere, the vertical structure of this quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) is linked to the mean upwelling, which itself is a key factor in determining stratospheric composition. Evidence for changes in the QBO have until now been equivocal, raising questions as to the extent of stratospheric circulation changes in a global warming context. Here we report an analysis of near-equatorial radiosonde observations for 1953-2012, and reveal a long-term trend of weakening amplitude in the zonal wind QBO in the tropical lower stratosphere. The trend is particularly notable at the 70-hectopascal pressure level (an altitude of about 19 kilometres), where the QBO amplitudes dropped by roughly one-third over the period. This trend is also apparent in the global warming simulations of the four models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) that realistically simulate the QBO. The weakening is most reasonably explained as resulting from a trend of increased mean tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere. Almost all comprehensive climate models have projected an intensifying tropical upwelling in global warming scenarios, but attempts to estimate changes in the upwelling by using observational data have yielded ambiguous, inconclusive or contradictory results. Our discovery of a weakening trend in the lower-stratosphere QBO amplitude provides strong support for the existence of a long-term trend of enhanced upwelling near the tropical tropopause.

Reduced efficiency of biological pump in the western tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, D.

2016-02-01

The western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) area has recently extended, which may influence considerably the marine ecosystems in the tropical Pacific. Here, we show the long-term trends in particle fluxes associated with the marine ecosystem changes in WPWP area. Total mass and biogenic fluxes have an annually decreasing trend from 2009 to 2014, which is mainly derived by the decrease in the biomass of N2 fixing cyanobacteria during summer. In the western tropical Pacific, the decrease in the biomass of N2 fixing cyanobacteria is attributed to the decrease of phosphate concentration associated with the shoaling of the winter mixed layer depth. The efficiency of biological pump has recently reduced in the western tropical Pacific, which might suppress the oceanic sequestration of atmospheric CO2 and thereby accelerate the global warming in the future.

Attributing Tropical Cyclogenesis to Equatorial Waves in the Western North Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schreck, Carl J., III; Molinari, John; Mohr, Karen I.

2009-01-01

The direct influences of equatorial waves on the genesis of tropical cyclones are evaluated. Tropical cyclogenesis is attributed to an equatorial wave when the filtered rainfall anomaly exceeds a threshold value at the genesis location. For an attribution threshold of 3 mm/day, 51% of warm season western North Pacific tropical cyclones are attributed to tropical depression (TD)-type disturbances, 29% to equatorial Rossby waves, 26% to mixed Rossby-Gravity waves, 23% to Kelvin waves, 13% to the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), and 19% are not attributed to any equatorial wave. The fraction of tropical cyclones attributed to TD-type disturbances is consistent with previous findings. Past studies have also demonstrated that the MJO significantly modulates tropical cyclogenesis, but fewer storms are attributed to the MJO than any other wave type. This disparity arises from the difference between attribution and modulation. The MJO produces broad regions of favorable conditions for cyclogenesis, but the MJO alone might not determine when and where a storm will develop within these regions. Tropical cyclones contribute less than 17% of the power in any portion of the equatorial wave spectrum because tropical cyclones are relatively uncommon equatorward of 15deg latitude. In regions where they are active, however, tropical cyclones can contribute more than 20% of the warm season rainfall and up to 50% of the total variance. Tropical cyclone-related anomalies can significantly contaminate wave-filtered precipitation at the location of genesis. To mitigate this effect, the tropical cyclone-related rainfall anomalies were removed before filtering in this study.

Possible relationship between East Indian Ocean SST and tropical cyclone affecting Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J. Y.; Choi, K. S.; Kim, B. J.

2014-12-01

In this study, a strong negative correlation was found between East Indian Ocean (EIO) SST and frequency of summertime tropical cyclone (TC) affecting Korea.For the Warm EIO SST years, the TCs mostly occurred in the southwestern region of tropical and subtropical western Pacific, and migrated west toward the southern coast of China and Indochinese peninsula through the South China Sea. This is because the anomalous easterlies, induced by the development of anomalous anticyclone (weakening of monsoon trough) from the tropical central Pacific to the southern coast of China, served as the steering flows for the westward migration of TCs. In contrast, for the cold EIO SST years, the TCs mostly occurred in the northeastern region of tropical and subtropical western Pacific, and migrated toward Korea and Japan located in the mid-latitudes of East Asia through the East China Sea. This is because the northeastward retreat of subtropical western North Pacific high (SWNPH) was more distinct for the cold EIO SST years compared to the warm EIO SST years. Therefore, the TCs of warm EIO SST years weakened or dissipated shortly due to the effect of geographical features as they land on the southern coast of China and Indochinese peninsula, whereas the TCs of cold EIO SST years had stronger intensity than the TCs of warm EIO SST years as sufficient energy is supplied from the ocean while moving toward Korea and Japan.

Medical Imaging of Neglected Tropical Diseases of the Americas.

PubMed

Jones, Patrick; Mazal, Jonathan

2016-01-01

Neglected tropical diseases are a group of protozoan, parasitic, bacterial, and viral diseases endemic in 149 countries causing substantial illness globally. Extreme poverty and warm tropical climates are the 2 most potent forces promoting the spread of neglected tropical diseases. These forces are prevalent in Central and South America, as well as the U.S. Gulf Coast. Advanced cases often require specialized medical imaging for diagnosis, disease staging, and follow-up. This article offers a review of epidemiology, pathophysiology, clinical manifestations, diagnosis (with special attention to medical imaging), and treatment of neglected tropical diseases specific to the Americas.

Comprehensive lake dynamics mapping at continental scales using Landsat 8

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Inland lakes, important water resources, play a crucial role in the global water cycle and are sensitive to global warming and human activities. There clearly is a pressing need to understand temporal and spatial variations of lakes at global and continental scales. The recent operation of Landsat...

A cosmogenic 10Be chronology for the local last glacial maximum and termination in the Cordillera Oriental, southern Peruvian Andes: Implications for the tropical role in global climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bromley, Gordon R. M.; Schaefer, Joerg M.; Hall, Brenda L.; Rademaker, Kurt M.; Putnam, Aaron E.; Todd, Claire E.; Hegland, Matthew; Winckler, Gisela; Jackson, Margaret S.; Strand, Peter D.

2016-09-01

Resolving patterns of tropical climate variability during and since the last glacial maximum (LGM) is fundamental to assessing the role of the tropics in global change, both on ice-age and sub-millennial timescales. Here, we present a10Be moraine chronology from the Cordillera Carabaya (14.3°S), a sub-range of the Cordillera Oriental in southern Peru, covering the LGM and the first half of the last glacial termination. Additionally, we recalculate existing 10Be ages using a new tropical high-altitude production rate in order to put our record into broader spatial context. Our results indicate that glaciers deposited a series of moraines during marine isotope stage 2, broadly synchronous with global glacier maxima, but that maximum glacier extent may have occurred prior to stage 2. Thereafter, atmospheric warming drove widespread deglaciation of the Cordillera Carabaya. A subsequent glacier resurgence culminated at ∼16,100 yrs, followed by a second period of glacier recession. Together, the observed deglaciation corresponds to Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1: ∼18,000-14,600 yrs), during which pluvial lakes on the adjacent Peruvian-Bolivian altiplano rose to their highest levels of the late Pleistocene as a consequence of southward displacement of the inter-tropical convergence zone and intensification of the South American summer monsoon. Deglaciation in the Cordillera Carabaya also coincided with the retreat of higher-latitude mountain glaciers in the Southern Hemisphere. Our findings suggest that HS1 was characterised by atmospheric warming and indicate that deglaciation of the southern Peruvian Andes was driven by rising temperatures, despite increased precipitation. Recalculated 10Be data from other tropical Andean sites support this model. Finally, we suggest that the broadly uniform response during the LGM and termination of the glaciers examined here involved equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies and propose a framework for testing the viability

Microbial processes and factors controlling their activities in alkaline lakes of the Mongolian plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Namsaraev, Zorigto B.; Zaitseva, Svetlana V.; Gorlenko, Vladimir M.; Kozyreva, Ludmila P.; Namsaraev, Bair B.

2015-11-01

A striking feature of the Mongolian plateau is the wide range of air temperatures during a year, -30 to 30°C. High summer temperatures, atmospheric weathering and the arid climate lead to formation of numerous alkaline soda lakes that are covered by ice during 6-7 months per year. During the study period, the lakes had pH values between 8.1 to 10.4 and salinity between 1.8 and 360 g/L. According to chemical composition, the lakes belong to sodium carbonate, sodium chloride-carbonate and sodium sulfate-carbonate types. This paper presents the data on the water chemical composition, results of the determination of the rates of microbial processes in microbial mats and sediments in the lakes studied, and the results of a Principal Component Analysis of environmental variables and microbial activity data. Temperature was the most important factor that influenced both chemical composition and microbial activity. pH and salinity are also important factors for the microbial processes. Dark CO2 fixation is impacted mostly by salinity and the chemical composition of the lake water. Total photosynthesis and sulfate-reduction are impacted mostly by pH. Photosynthesis is the dominant process of primary production, but the highest rate (386 mg C/(L•d)) determined in the lakes studied were 2-3 times lower than in microbial mats of lakes located in tropical zones. This can be explained by the relatively short warm period that lasts only 3-4 months per year. The highest measured rate of dark CO2 assimilation (59.8 mg C/(L•d)) was much lower than photosynthesis. The highest rate of sulfate reduction was 60 mg S/(L•d), while that of methanogenesis was 75.6 μL CN4/(L•d) in the alkaline lakes of Mongolian plateau. The rate of organic matter consumption during sulfate reduction was 3-4 orders of magnitude higher than that associated with methanogenesis.

Positive low cloud and dust feedbacks amplify tropical North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

DOE PAGES

Yuan, Tianle; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Zelinka, Mark; ...

2016-02-04

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is characterized by a horseshoe pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and has a wide range of climatic impacts. While the tropical arm of AMO is responsible for many of these impacts, it is either too weak or completely absent in many climate model simulations. Here we show, using both observational and model evidence, that the radiative effect of positive low cloud and dust feedbacks is strong enough to generate the tropical arm of AMO, with the low cloud feedback more dominant. The feedbacks can be understood in a consistent dynamical framework: weakened tropicalmore » trade wind speed in response to a warm middle latitude SST anomaly reduces dust loading and low cloud fraction over the tropical Atlantic, which warms the tropical North Atlantic SST. Together they contribute to the appearance of the tropical arm of AMO. Most current climate models miss both the critical wind speed response and two positive feedbacks though realistic simulations of them may be essential for many climatic studies related to the AMO.« less

Extreme warmth and heat-stressed plankton in the tropics during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

PubMed

Frieling, Joost; Gebhardt, Holger; Huber, Matthew; Adekeye, Olabisi A; Akande, Samuel O; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Middelburg, Jack J; Schouten, Stefan; Sluijs, Appy

2017-03-01

Global ocean temperatures rapidly warmed by ~5°C during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; ~56 million years ago). Extratropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) met or exceeded modern subtropical values. With these warm extratropical temperatures, climate models predict tropical SSTs >35°C-near upper physiological temperature limits for many organisms. However, few data are available to test these projected extreme tropical temperatures or their potential lethality. We identify the PETM in a shallow marine sedimentary section deposited in Nigeria. On the basis of planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca and oxygen isotope ratios and the molecular proxy [Formula: see text], latest Paleocene equatorial SSTs were ~33°C, and [Formula: see text] indicates that SSTs rose to >36°C during the PETM. This confirms model predictions on the magnitude of polar amplification and refutes the tropical thermostat theory. We attribute a massive drop in dinoflagellate abundance and diversity at peak warmth to thermal stress, showing that the base of tropical food webs is vulnerable to rapid warming.

Effects of Temperature, Salinity and Fish in Structuring the Macroinvertebrate Community in Shallow Lakes: Implications for Effects of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Brucet, Sandra; Boix, Dani; Nathansen, Louise W.; Quintana, Xavier D.; Jensen, Elisabeth; Balayla, David; Meerhoff, Mariana; Jeppesen, Erik

2012-01-01

Climate warming may lead to changes in the trophic structure and diversity of shallow lakes as a combined effect of increased temperature and salinity and likely increased strength of trophic interactions. We investigated the potential effects of temperature, salinity and fish on the plant-associated macroinvertebrate community by introducing artificial plants in eight comparable shallow brackish lakes located in two climatic regions of contrasting temperature: cold-temperate and Mediterranean. In both regions, lakes covered a salinity gradient from freshwater to oligohaline waters. We undertook day and night-time sampling of macroinvertebrates associated with the artificial plants and fish and free-swimming macroinvertebrate predators within artificial plants and in pelagic areas. Our results showed marked differences in the trophic structure between cold and warm shallow lakes. Plant-associated macroinvertebrates and free-swimming macroinvertebrate predators were more abundant and the communities richer in species in the cold compared to the warm climate, most probably as a result of differences in fish predation pressure. Submerged plants in warm brackish lakes did not seem to counteract the effect of fish predation on macroinvertebrates to the same extent as in temperate freshwater lakes, since small fish were abundant and tended to aggregate within the macrophytes. The richness and abundance of most plant-associated macroinvertebrate taxa decreased with salinity. Despite the lower densities of plant-associated macroinvertebrates in the Mediterranean lakes, periphyton biomass was lower than in cold temperate systems, a fact that was mainly attributed to grazing and disturbance by fish. Our results suggest that, if the current process of warming entails higher chances of shallow lakes becoming warmer and more saline, climatic change may result in a decrease in macroinvertebrate species richness and abundance in shallow lakes. PMID:22393354

3D mapping and simulation of Geneva Lake environmental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villard, Roch; Maignan, Michel; Kanevski, Mikhail; Rapin, Francois; Klein, Audrey

2010-05-01

several depths. Applying all data comprehensive analysis both in space and in time was performed. The evolution of the distribution of environmental parameters and their difference in space between two periods and also several times series were studied. Furthermore with the analysis of temporal measurements depending on spatial coordinates (x, y, z) the trends, periodicity, and seasonal variation or cycles were evaluated. First results demonstrate no global warming in such environment. However certain currents and their evolution in the lake were identified. Then, we can see the movement of cold and hot waters in the lake during time and in space. A main question posed by ecologists is: is there any global warming of the lake? According to the results based on date 1954-1980, no global warming either of the "Small Lake" (Geneva) or the whole lake was put into evidence. However the temperatures of the different parts of the lake vary from one year to another year with significant differences of warming, respectively cooling of different areas and at different depths. The graphical representations of time series of temperature at one location for different depths show clearly the annual rhythm and also other frequencies (11 years). The historical well known "cold years" are well identified. At some years, one can observe an inversion of temperature when the cold water in the depth comes upwards to the surface. Spatial patterns are also found for the nitrate content in water. The future developments deal with multivariate analysis and simulations of environmental and pollution data in the lake.

Assessment of pathogenic bacteria in water and sediment from a water reservoir under tropical conditions (Lake Ma Vallée), Kinshasa Democratic Republic of Congo.

PubMed

Mwanamoki, Paola M; Devarajan, Naresh; Thevenon, Florian; Atibu, Emmanuel K; Tshibanda, Joseph B; Ngelinkoto, Patience; Mpiana, Pius T; Prabakar, Kandasamy; Mubedi, Josué I; Kabele, Christophe G; Wildi, Walter; Poté, John

2014-10-01

This study was conducted to assess potential human health risks presented by pathogenic bacteria in a protected multi-use lake-reservoir (Lake Ma Vallée) located in west of Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Water and surface sediments from several points of the Lake were collected during summer. Microbial analysis was performed for Escherichia coli, Enterococcus (ENT), Pseudomonas species and heterotrophic plate counts. PCR amplification was performed for the confirmation of E. coli, ENT, Pseudomonas spp. and Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolated from samples. The results reveal low concentration of bacteria in water column of the lake, the bacterial quantification results observed in this study for the water column were below the recommended limits, according to WHO and the European Directive 2006/7/CE, for bathing water. However, high concentration of bacteria was observed in the sediment samples; the values of 2.65 × 10(3), 6.35 × 10(3), 3.27 × 10(3) and 3.60 × 10(8) CFU g(-1) of dry sediment for E. coli, ENT, Pseudomonas spp. and heterotrophic plate counts, respectively. The results of this study indicate that sediments of the Lake Ma Vallée can constitute a reservoir of pathogenic microorganisms which can persist in the lake. Possible resuspension of faecal indicator bacteria and pathogens would affect water quality and may increase health risks to the population during recreational activities. Our results indicate that the microbial sediment analysis provides complementary and important information for assessing sanitary quality of surface water under tropical conditions.

Fishery survey of U. S. waters of Lake Ontario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wells, LaRue

1969-01-01

Gill nets and trawls were fished by the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries R/V Cisco during September 19-23, 1964, at several locations and depths in the offshore United States waters of Lake Ontario. Water temperatures were low (3.7-8.3 A?C) at all fishing stations except one (16.4 A?C). Supplementary data were provided by the Bureau's R/V Kaho in 1966. Alewives and smelt were common. Ciscoes were extremely scarce, but large; most of those caught were bloaters. Slimy sculpins were abundant, but no deepwater sculpins were caught. Yellow perch were scarce. Although the warm water species were inadequately sampled, trout-perch seemed to be abundant. Other species, all caught in small numbers, were lake trout, spottail shiners, burbot, threespine sticklebacks, and johnny darters from cold water and northern pike, lake chubs, white suckers, white bass, white perch, and rock bass from warm water.

Directly dated MIS 3 lake-level record from Lake Manix, Mojave Desert, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reheis, Marith; Miller, David M.; McGeehin, John P.; Redwine, Joanna R.; Oviatt, Charles G.; Bright, Jordon E.

2015-01-01

An outcrop-based lake-level curve, constrained by ~ 70 calibrated 14C ages on Anodonta shells, indicates at least 8 highstands between 45 and 25 cal ka BP within 10 m of the 543-m upper threshold of Lake Manix in the Mojave Desert of southern California. Correlations of Manix highstands with ice, marine, and speleothem records suggest that at least the youngest three highstands coincide with Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) stadials and Heinrich events 3 and 4. The lake-level record is consistent with results from speleothem studies in the Southwest that indicate cool wet conditions during D–O stadials. Notably, highstands between 43 and 25 ka apparently occurred at times of generally low levels of pluvial lakes farther north as interpreted from core-based proxies. Mojave lakes may have been supported by tropical moisture sources during oxygen-isotope stage 3, perhaps controlled by southerly deflection of Pacific storm tracks due to weakening of the sea-surface temperature gradient in response to North Atlantic climate perturbations.

Adapt, move or die - how will tropical coral reef fishes cope with ocean warming?

PubMed

Habary, Adam; Johansen, Jacob L; Nay, Tiffany J; Steffensen, John F; Rummer, Jodie L

2017-02-01

Previous studies hailed thermal tolerance and the capacity for organisms to acclimate and adapt as the primary pathways for species survival under climate change. Here we challenge this theory. Over the past decade, more than 365 tropical stenothermal fish species have been documented moving poleward, away from ocean warming hotspots where temperatures 2-3 °C above long-term annual means can compromise critical physiological processes. We examined the capacity of a model species - a thermally sensitive coral reef fish, Chromis viridis (Pomacentridae) - to use preference behaviour to regulate its body temperature. Movement could potentially circumvent the physiological stress response associated with elevated temperatures and may be a strategy relied upon before genetic adaptation can be effectuated. Individuals were maintained at one of six temperatures (23, 25, 27, 29, 31 and 33 °C) for at least 6 weeks. We compared the relative importance of acclimation temperature to changes in upper critical thermal limits, aerobic metabolic scope and thermal preference. While acclimation temperature positively affected the upper critical thermal limit, neither aerobic metabolic scope nor thermal preference exhibited such plasticity. Importantly, when given the choice to stay in a habitat reflecting their acclimation temperatures or relocate, fish acclimated to end-of-century predicted temperatures (i.e. 31 or 33 °C) preferentially sought out cooler temperatures, those equivalent to long-term summer averages in their natural habitats (~29 °C). This was also the temperature providing the greatest aerobic metabolic scope and body condition across all treatments. Consequently, acclimation can confer plasticity in some performance traits, but may be an unreliable indicator of the ultimate survival and distribution of mobile stenothermal species under global warming. Conversely, thermal preference can arise long before, and remain long after, the harmful effects of elevated

Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations in Lake Trout lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jabbari, A.; Boegman, L.; MacKay, M.; Hadley, K.; Paterson, A.; Jeziorski, A.; Nelligan, C.; Smol, J. P.

2016-02-01

Lake Trout are a rare and valuable natural resource that are threatened by multiple environmental stressors. With the added threat of climate warming, there is growing concern among resource managers that increased thermal stratification will reduce the habitat quality of deep-water Lake Trout lakes through enhanced oxygen depletion. To address this issue, a three-part study is underway, which aims to: analyze sediment cores to understand the past, develop empirical formulae to model the present and apply computational models to forecast the future. This presentation reports on the computational modeling efforts. To this end, a simple dissolved oxygen sub-model has been embedded in the one-dimensional bulk mixed-layer thermodynamic Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM). This model is currently being incorporated into the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS), the primary land surface component of Environment Canada's global and regional climate modelling systems. The oxygen model was calibrated and validated by hind-casting temperature and dissolved oxygen profiles from two Lake Trout lakes on the Canadian Shield. These data sets include 5 years of high-frequency (10 s to 10 min) data from Eagle Lake and 30 years of bi-weekly data from Harp Lake. Initial results show temperature and dissolved oxygen was predicted with root mean square error <1.5 °C and <3 mgL-1, respectively. Ongoing work is validating the model, over climate-change relevant timescales, against dissolved oxygen reconstructions from the sediment cores and predicting future deep-water temperature and dissolved oxygen concentrations in Canadian Lake Trout lakes under future climate change scenarios. This model will provide a useful tool for managers to ensure sustainable fishery resources for future generations.

Changes in winter air temperatures near Lake Michigan, 1851-1993, as determined from regional lake-ice records

USGS Publications Warehouse

Assel, R.A.; Robertson, Dale M.

1995-01-01

Records of freezeup and breakup dates for Grand Traverse Bay, Michigan, and Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, are among the longest ice records available near the Great Lakes, beginning in 185 1 and 1855, respectively. The timing of freezeup and breakup results from an integration of meteorological conditions (primarily air temperature) that occur before these events. Changes in the average timing of these ice-events are translated into changes in air temperature by the use of empirical and process-driven models. The timing of freezeup and breakup at the two locations represents an integration of air temperatures over slightly different seasons (months). Records from both locations indicate that the early winter period before about 1890 was - 15°C cooler than the early winter period after that time; the mean temperature has, however, remained relatively constant since about 1890. Changes in breakup dates demonstrate a similar 1.0-1 .5”C increase in late winter and early spring air temperatures about 1890. More recent average breakup dates at both locations have been earlier than during 1890-1940, indicating an additional warming of 1.2”C in March since about 1940 and a warming of 1 . 1°C in January-March since about 1980. Ice records at these sites will continue to provide an early indication of the anticipated climatic warming, not only because of the large response of ice cover to small changes in air temperature but also because these records integrate climatic conditions during the seasons (winter-spring) when most warming is forecast to occur. Future reductions in ice cover may strongly affect the winter ecology of the Great Lakes by reducing the stable environment required by various levels of the food chain. 

Hydroclimate variability and regional atmospheric circulation over the past 1,350 years reconstructed from Lake Ohau, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roop, H. A.; Levy, R. H.; Vandergoes, M.; Dunbar, G. B.; Howarth, J. D.; Lorrey, A.; Phipps, S. J.

2016-12-01

Comprehensive understanding of natural climate-system dynamics requires high-resolution paleoclimate records extending beyond the instrumental period. This is particularly the case for the sparsely-instrumented Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, where the timing and amplitude of regional and hemispheric-scale climatic events are poorly constrained. Here we present a 1,350-year record of hydroclimatic variability and regional circulation derived from an annually laminated sediment record from Lake Ohau, South Island, New Zealand (44.23°S, 169.85°E). The climate of New Zealand is influenced by climatological patterns originating in both the tropics (e.g. El-Niño-Southern Oscillation, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation) and the Antarctic (Southern Annular Mode, SAM). Utilizing the annually resolved Lake Ohau hydroclimate record in combination with a tree-ring record of summer temperature from Oroko Swamp, New Zealand (Cook et al., 2002), we generate a circulation index for the Western South Island of New Zealand. This index utilizes the temperature and precipitation anomalies defined by the Regional Climate Regime Classification scheme for New Zealand to assign synoptic scale circulation patterns to 25-year intervals from 900-2000 AD. This circulation index shows significant periods of change, most notably 835 - 985 AD when northerly airflow dominated and from 1385 - 1710 AD when strong southerly airflow persisted. Comparisons with regional SAM and ENSO reconstructions show that dry, warm conditions at Lake Ohau are consistently associated with strengthened tropical teleconnections to New Zealand and a positive SAM, while cold and wet conditions are driven by increased southerly airflow and negative phase SAM. A persistent negative SAM dominates the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1385-1710 AD) interval in the Western South Island. This same period coincides with the Northern Hemisphere LIA.

Global Warming and Energy Transition: A Public Policy Imperative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, G. T.

2006-12-01

The historic transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy resources has begun. This development is commonly attributed to increasing energy costs and the need for energy security. Looming ever larger, however, is the issue that will soon drive the third energy revolution: global warming. A preponderance of evidence documents accelerating warming, enlarging impacts, and human causes -- principally combustion of fossil fuels. The carbon dioxide (C02) content of Earth's atmosphere has increased more than 35 percent since the beginning of the industrial revolution and is the highest in 650,000 years. This dramatic rise of C02 and attendant positive feedbacks are already forcing significant impacts worldwide. These include atmospheric warming with shifting climatic and habitat zones, spreading tropical disease, and more extreme weather events; rapid ice loss at high latitude and high altitude; ocean warming and acidification with coral reef bleaching and intensifying tropical storms; rising sea level; and accelerating extinction rates. The 2007 draft report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts greater warming than in previous models. A tipping point to abrupt climate change may be imminent. It is incumbent upon geoscientists and geoscience educators to assume leadership in addressing this challenge through public outreach and general education. The following topics should be integrated into all appropriate courses: the evidence of global warming and its causes; observed present and predicted future impacts of global warming; mitigation and adaptation strategies; and implications for energy policies and economic opportunities. New entry-level science and general education courses -- such as Climate Change Fundamentals and Energy in Nature, Technology, and Society -- are proving to be effective should be widely developed In addition, by workshops and presentations to civic and business organizations and by demonstrated examples of

Warm season heavy rainfall events over the Huaihe River Valley and their linkage with wintertime thermal condition of the tropical oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Laifang; Li, Wenhong; Tang, Qiuhong; Zhang, Pengfei; Liu, Yimin

2016-01-01

Warm season heavy rainfall events over the Huaihe River Valley (HRV) of China are amongst the top causes of agriculture and economic loss in this region. Thus, there is a pressing need for accurate seasonal prediction of HRV heavy rainfall events. This study improves the seasonal prediction of HRV heavy rainfall by implementing a novel rainfall framework, which overcomes the limitation of traditional probability models and advances the statistical inference on HRV heavy rainfall events. The framework is built on a three-cluster Normal mixture model, whose distribution parameters are sampled using Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The three rainfall clusters reflect probability behaviors of light, moderate, and heavy rainfall, respectively. Our analysis indicates that heavy rainfall events make the largest contribution to the total amount of seasonal precipitation. Furthermore, the interannual variation of summer precipitation is attributable to the variation of heavy rainfall frequency over the HRV. The heavy rainfall frequency, in turn, is influenced by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the north Indian Ocean, equatorial western Pacific, and the tropical Atlantic. The tropical SSTAs modulate the HRV heavy rainfall events by influencing atmospheric circulation favorable for the onset and maintenance of heavy rainfall events. Occurring 5 months prior to the summer season, these tropical SSTAs provide potential sources of prediction skill for heavy rainfall events over the HRV. Using these preceding SSTA signals, we show that the support vector machine algorithm can predict HRV heavy rainfall satisfactorily. The improved prediction skill has important implication for the nation's disaster early warning system.

Diel Surface Temperature Range Scales with Lake Size

PubMed Central

Woolway, R. Iestyn; Jones, Ian D.; Maberly, Stephen C.; French, Jon R.; Livingstone, David M.; Monteith, Donald T.; Simpson, Gavin L.; Thackeray, Stephen J.; Andersen, Mikkel R.; Battarbee, Richard W.; DeGasperi, Curtis L.; Evans, Christopher D.; de Eyto, Elvira; Feuchtmayr, Heidrun; Hamilton, David P.; Kernan, Martin; Krokowski, Jan; Rimmer, Alon; Rose, Kevin C.; Rusak, James A.; Ryves, David B.; Scott, Daniel R.; Shilland, Ewan M.; Smyth, Robyn L.; Staehr, Peter A.; Thomas, Rhian; Waldron, Susan; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.

2016-01-01

Ecological and biogeochemical processes in lakes are strongly dependent upon water temperature. Long-term surface warming of many lakes is unequivocal, but little is known about the comparative magnitude of temperature variation at diel timescales, due to a lack of appropriately resolved data. Here we quantify the pattern and magnitude of diel temperature variability of surface waters using high-frequency data from 100 lakes. We show that the near-surface diel temperature range can be substantial in summer relative to long-term change and, for lakes smaller than 3 km2, increases sharply and predictably with decreasing lake area. Most small lakes included in this study experience average summer diel ranges in their near-surface temperatures of between 4 and 7°C. Large diel temperature fluctuations in the majority of lakes undoubtedly influence their structure, function and role in biogeochemical cycles, but the full implications remain largely unexplored. PMID:27023200

The predominance of young carbon in Arctic whole-lake CH4 and CO2 emissions and implications for Boreal yedoma lakes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elder, C.; Xu, X.; Walker, J. C.; Walter Anthony, K. M.; Pohlman, J.; Arp, C. D.; Townsend-Small, A.; Hinkel, K. M.; Czimczik, C. I.

2017-12-01

Lakes in Arctic and Boreal regions are hotspots for atmospheric exchange of the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4. Thermokarst lakes are a subset of these Northern lakes that may further accelerate climate warming by mobilizing ancient permafrost C (> 11,500 years old) that has been disconnected from the active C cycle for millennia. Northern lakes are thus potentially powerful agents of the permafrost C-climate feedback. While they are critical for projecting the magnitude and timing these feedbacks from the rapidly warming circumpolar region, we lack datasets capturing the diversity of northern lakes, especially regarding their CH4contributions to whole-lake C emissions and their ability to access and mobilize ancient C. We measured the radiocarbon (14C) ages of CH4 and CO2 emitted from 60 understudied lakes and ponds in Arctic and Boreal Alaska during winter and summer to estimate the ages of the C sources yielding these gases. Integrated mean ages for whole-lake emissions were inferred from the 14C-age of dissolved gases sampled beneath seasonal ice. Additionally, we measured concentrations and 14C values of gases emitted by ebullition and diffusion in summer to apportion C emission pathways. Using a multi-sourced mass balance approach, we found that whole-lake CH4 and CO2 emissions were predominantly sourced from relatively young C in most lakes. In Arctic lakes, CH4 originated from 850 14C-year old C on average, whereas dissolved CO2 was sourced from 400 14C-year old C, and represented 99% of total dissolved C flux. Although ancient C had a minimal influence (11% of total emissions), we discovered that lakes in finer-textured aeolian deposits (Yedoma) emitted twice as much ancient C as lakes in sandy regions. In Boreal, yedoma-type lakes, CH4 and CO2 were fueled by significantly older sources, and mass balance results estimated CH4-ebullition to comprise 50-60% of whole-lake CH4 emissions. The mean 14C-age of Boreal emissions was 6,000 14C-years for CH4-C, and 2

Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharski, F.; Sun, C.; Li, J.; Jin, F. F.; Kang, I. S.; Ding, R.

2017-12-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.

Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

PubMed Central

Sun, Cheng; Kucharski, Fred; Li, Jianping; Jin, Fei-Fei; Kang, In-Sik; Ding, Ruiqiang

2017-01-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO–WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind–evaporation–SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST–sea level pressure–cloud–longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability. PMID:28685765

Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Cheng; Kucharski, Fred; Li, Jianping; Jin, Fei-Fei; Kang, In-Sik; Ding, Ruiqiang

2017-07-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.

The Teleconnection Between Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patricola, C. M.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.

2016-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) predictability, in both local and remote ocean basins. Unusually warm eastern tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) during El Niño tends not only to enhance local TC activity in the eastern North Pacific (ENP) but also to suppress Atlantic TCs via well-known teleconnections. Here, we demonstrate that Atlantic SST variability likewise exerts a significant influence on remote TC activity in the eastern Pacific basin using observations and 27 km resolution tropical channel model simulations. Observed and simulated accumulated cyclone energy in the ENP is substantially reduced during the positive phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), which is characterized by warm and cool SST anomalies in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic respectively, and vice versa during the cool AMM phase. We find that the observed anti-correlation in seasonal TC activity between the Atlantic and ENP basins is driven by interannual climate variability in both the tropical Pacific (ENSO) and Atlantic (AMM). The physical mechanisms that drive the teleconnection between Atlantic SST and ENP TC activity will also be presented. This work provides information that can be used to improve seasonal forecasts and future projections of ENP tropical cyclone activity.

Structure of the Highly Sheared Tropical Storm Chantal During CAMEX-4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heymsfield, G. M.; Halverson, J.; Ritchie, E.; Simpson, Joanne; Molinari, J.; Tian, L.

2004-01-01

NASA's 4th Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4) focused on Atlantic hurricanes during the 2001 hurricane season and it involved both NASA and NOAA participation. The NASA ER-2 and DC-8 aircraft were instrumented with unique remote sensing instruments to help increase the overall understanding of hurricanes. This paper is concerned about one of the storms studied, Tropical Storm Chantal, that was a weak storm which failed to intense into a hurricane. One of the practical questions of high importance is why some tropical stoins intensify into hurricanes, and others remain weak or die altogether. The magnitude of the difference between the horizontal winds at lower levels and upper altitudes in a tropical storm, i.e., the wind shear, is one important quantity that can affect the intensification of a tropical storm. Strong shear as was present during Tropical Storm Chantal s lifetime and it was detrimental to its intensification. The paper presents an analysis of unique aircraft observations collected from Chantal including an on-board radar, radiometers, dropsondes, and flight level measurements. These measurements have enabled us to examine the internal structure of the winds and thermal structure of Chantal. Most of the previous studies have involved intense hurricanes that overcame the effects of shear and this work has provided new insights into what prevents a weaker storm from intensifying. The storm had extremely intense thunderstorms and rainfall, yet its main circulation was confined to low levels of the atmosphere. Chantal's thermal structure was not configured properly for the storm to intensify. It is most typical that huricanes have a warm core structure where warm temperatures in upper levels of a storm s circulation help intensify surface winds and lower its central pressure. Chantal had two weaker warm layers instead of a well-defined warm core. These layers have been related to the horizontal and vertical winds and precipitation structure and

Tropical-Subpolar Linkages in the North Atlantic during the last Glacial Period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vautravers, M. J.; Hodell, D. A.

2010-12-01

We studied millennial-scale changes in planktonic foraminifera assemblages from the last glacial period in a high-resolution core (KN166-14-JPC13) recovered from the southern part of the Gardar Drift in the subpolar North Atlantic. Similar to recent findings reported by Jonkers et al. (2010), we also found that the sub-polar North Atlantic Ocean experienced some seasonal warming during each of the Heinrich Events (HEs). In addition, increasing abundances of tropical species are found just prior to the IRD event marking the end of each Bond cycle, suggesting that summer warming may have been involved in triggering Heinrich events. We suggest that tropical-subtropical water transported via the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Drift may have triggered the collapse of large NH ice-shelves. Sharp decreases in polar species are tied to abrupt warming following Heinrich Events as documented in Greenland Ice cores and other marine records in the North Atlantic. The record bears a strong resemblance to the tropical record of Cariaco basin (Peterson et al., 2000), suggesting strong tropical-subpolar linkages in the glacial North Atlantic. Enhanced spring productivity, possibly related to eddy activity along the Subpolar Front, is recorded by increased shell size, high δ13C in G. bulloides and other biological indices early during the transition from HE stadials to the following interstadial.

Convectively induced mesoscale weather systems in the tropical and warm-season midlatitude atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smull, Bradley F.

1995-07-01

As anticipated by Nelson [1991] in the last U.S. National Report, mesoscale meteorology has continued to be an area of vigorous research activity. Progress is evinced by a growing number of process-oriented studies capitalizing on expanded observational capabilities, as well as more theoretical treatments employing numerical simulations of increasing sophistication. While the majority of papers within the scope of this review fall into the category of basic research, the field's maturation is evident in the emergence of a growing number of applications to operational weather forecasting. Even as our ability to anticipate shifts in synoptic scale upper-air patterns and associated baroclinic developments has steadily improved, lagging skill with regard to quantitative forecasts of precipitation—particularly in situations where deep moist convection is prevalent—has sustained research in warm-season mesoscale meteorology. Each spring and summer midlatitude populations are exposed to life-threatening natural weather phenomena in the form of lightning, tornadoes, straight-line winds, hail, and flash floods. This point was driven home during the summer of 1993, when an extraordinarily persistent series of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) led to unusually severe and widespread flooding throughout the Mississippi and Missouri river basins. In addition to this obvious impact on regional climate, the 1990's have brought an increased appreciation for the less direct yet potentially significant role that tropical convection may play in shaping global climate through phenomena such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Lake seasonality across the Tibetan Plateau and their varying relationship with regional mass changes and local hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Yanbin; Yao, Tandong; Yang, Kun; Sheng, Yongwei; Kleinherenbrink, Marcel; Yi, Shuang; Bird, Broxton W.; Zhang, Xiaowen; Zhu, La; Zhang, Guoqing

2017-01-01

The recent growth and deepening of inland lakes in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) may be a salient indicator of the consequences of climate change. The seasonal dynamics of these lakes is poorly understood despite this being potentially crucial for disentangling contributions from glacier melt and precipitation, which are all sensitive to climate, to lake water budget. Using in situ observations, satellite altimetry and gravimetry data, we identified two patterns of lake level seasonality. In the central, northern, and northeastern TP, lake levels are characterized by considerable increases during warm seasons and decreases during cold seasons, which is consistent with regional mass changes related to monsoon precipitation and evaporation. In the northwestern TP, however, lake levels exhibit dramatic increases during both warm and cold seasons, which deviate from regional mass changes. This appears to be more connected with high spring snowfall and large summer glacier melt. The variable lake level response to different drivers indicates heterogeneous sensitivity to climate change between the northwestern TP and other regions.

Spatial patterns in oxygen and redox sensitive biogeochemistry in tropical forest soils

Treesearch

Daniel Liptzin; Whendee L. Silver