Wildland fire probabilities estimated from weather model-deduced monthly mean fire danger indices

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Shyh-Chin Chen; Francis Fujioka; John W. Benoit; Anthony L. Westerling

2008-01-01

The National Fire Danger Rating System indices deduced from a regional simulation weather model were used to estimate probabilities and numbers of large fire events on monthly and 1-degree grid scales. The weather model simulations and forecasts are ongoing experimental products from the Experimental Climate Prediction Center at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography...

Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela

2011-01-01

The goal of this task was to upgrade to the existing severe weather database by adding observations from the 2010 warm season, update the verification dataset with results from the 2010 warm season, use statistical logistic regression analysis on the database and develop a new forecast tool. The AMU analyzed 7 stability parameters that showed the possibility of providing guidance in forecasting severe weather, calculated verification statistics for the Total Threat Score (TTS), and calculated warm season verification statistics for the 2010 season. The AMU also performed statistical logistic regression analysis on the 22-year severe weather database. The results indicated that the logistic regression equation did not show an increase in skill over the previously developed TTS. The equation showed less accuracy than TTS at predicting severe weather, little ability to distinguish between severe and non-severe weather days, and worse standard categorical accuracy measures and skill scores over TTS.

The impact of weather changes on air quality and health in the United States in 1994-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jhun, Iny; Coull, Brent A.; Schwartz, Joel; Hubbell, Bryan; Koutrakis, Petros

2015-08-01

Air quality is heavily influenced by weather conditions. In this study, we assessed the impact of long-term weather changes on air quality and health in the US during 1994-2012. We quantified past weather-related increases, or ‘weather penalty’, in ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and thereafter estimated the associated excess deaths. Using statistical regression methods, we derived the weather penalty as the additional increases in air pollution relative to trends assuming constant weather conditions (i.e., weather-adjusted trends). During our study period, temperature increased and wind speed decreased in most US regions. Nationally, weather-related 8 h max O3 increases were 0.18 ppb per year (95% CI: 0.06, 0.31) in the warm season (May-October) and 0.07 ppb per year (95% CI: 0.02, 0.13) in the cold season (November-April). The weather penalties on O3 were relatively larger than PM2.5 weather penalties, which were 0.056 μg m-3 per year (95% CI: 0.016, 0.096) in warm months and 0.027 μg m-3 per year (95% CI: 0.010, 0.043) in cold months. Weather penalties on O3 and PM2.5 were associated with 290 (95% CI: 80, 510) and 770 (95% CI: 190, 1350) excess annual deaths, respectively. Over a 19-year period, this amounts to 20 300 excess deaths (5600 from O3, 14 700 from PM2.5) attributable to the weather penalty on air quality.

Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Fluctuation over Six Months and the Effect of the Weather.

PubMed

Czerniec, Sharon A; Ward, Leigh C; Kilbreath, Sharon L

2016-09-01

An understanding of normal fluctuation of lymphedema over time is important to identify real change, whether it is from response to treatment or worsening of the condition. The weather is another factor that possibly influences lymphedema but has had minimal investigation to date. The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL) fluctuated over a 6-month period and the influence of temperature, humidity, and barometric pressure. Women with unilateral BCRL (n = 26) and without BCRL (n = 17) were measured on nine occasions over 6 months using a standardized protocol. Measures included self-reported arm swelling, arm volume, and extracellular fluid with bioimpedance. Daily weather data were obtained for analysis of effects on lymphedema. Neither arm volume nor extracellular fluid varied significantly for women with lymphedema; coefficients of variation were 2.3% and 3.7%, respectively. Women without lymphedema had even less fluctuation, with coefficient of variation of 1.9% for arm volume and 2.9% for ECF. Correlation of weather and lymphedema data showed that temperature was the only aspect of the weather to have any effect on BCRL, with the maximum temperature on the day before measurement slightly affecting ECF (r = 0.27, p < 0.001), arm volume (r = 0.23, p < 0.001), and self-reported swelling (r = 0.26, p < 0.001). For women without lymphedema, the weather did not affect any measure. Established BCRL is relatively stable over a 6-month period. Temperature was the only aspect of the weather found to impact lymphedema.

The impact of weather changes on air quality and health in the United States in 1994–2012

PubMed Central

Jhun, Iny; Coull, Brent A; Schwartz, Joel; Hubbell, Bryan; Koutrakis, Petros

2016-01-01

Air quality is heavily influenced by weather conditions. In this study, we assessed the impact of long-term weather changes on air quality and health in the US during 1994–2012. We quantified past weather-related increases, or ‘weather penalty’, in ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and thereafter estimated the associated excess deaths. Using statistical regression methods, we derived the weather penalty as the additional increases in air pollution relative to trends assuming constant weather conditions (i.e., weather-adjusted trends). During our study period, temperature increased and wind speed decreased in most US regions. Nationally, weather-related 8 h max O3 increases were 0.18 ppb per year (95% CI: 0.06, 0.31) in the warm season (May–October) and 0.07 ppb per year (95% CI: 0.02, 0.13) in the cold season (November–April). The weather penalties on O3 were relatively larger than PM2.5 weather penalties, which were 0.056 µg m−3 per year (95% CI: 0.016, 0.096) in warm months and 0.027 µg m−3 per year (95% CI: 0.010, 0.043) in cold months. Weather penalties on O3 and PM2.5 were associated with 290 (95% CI: 80, 510) and 770 (95% CI: 190, 1350) excess annual deaths, respectively. Over a 19-year period, this amounts to 20 300 excess deaths (5600 from O3, 14 700 from PM2.5) attributable to the weather penalty on air quality PMID:27570539

Remote sensing, global warming, and vector-borne disease

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, B.; Beck, L.; Dister, S.

1997-12-31

The relationship between climate change and the pattern of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are changes such as global warming, which are continental in scale and occur over periods of years, decades, or longer. At the opposite extreme are changes associated with severe weather events, which can occur at local and regional scales over periods of days, weeks, or months. Key ecological factors affecting the distribution of vector-borne diseases include temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability, and their impact on vectors, pathogens, reservoirs, and hosts. Global warming can potentially altermore » these factors, thereby affecting the spatial and temporal patterns of disease.« less

The measured study of natural weathering performance of reflective thermal insulation coating in hot-summer and warm-winter region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Zhao; Dafu, Weng; Jie, Gu; Binbin, Li

2017-11-01

In order to study the attenuation performance of solar direct reflectance of reflective thermal insulation coating under natural weathering, we conducted a measured study on five coatings with the built natural weathering platform. After the 18-month natural weathering experiments, the color of coating templets turn undertint or black with coating layer pulverized and fallen off, some of the templets starting to crack, fall off and go mouldy. Meanwhile, the reflectance ratio of reflective thermal insulation coating decreased significantly after 3 to 6 months, the degree of attenuation of the five templets is 2% to 28%. After 18 months’ exposure to the blazing sun, the most significant degree of attenuation reached 46%. The solar direct reflectance of coating templet of the same brand remained high as before after natural weathering with an initial high solar direct reflectance

Sensitivity of the boreal forest-mire ecotone CO2, CH4, and N2O global warming potential to rainy and dry weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ťupek, Boris; Minkkinen, Kari; Vesala, Timo; Nikinmaa, Eero

2015-04-01

In a mosaic of well drained forests and poorly drained mires of boreal landscape the weather events such as drought and rainy control greenhouse gas dynamics and ecosystem global warming potential (GWP). In forest-mire ecotone especially in ecosystems where CO2 sink is nearly balanced with CO2 source, it's fairly unknown whether the net warming effect of emissions of gases with strong radiative forcing (CH4 and N2O) could offset the net cooling effect of CO2 sequestration. We compared the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) estimated from the carbon sequestrations of forest stands and forest floor CO2 fluxes against CH4 and N2O fluxes of nine forest/mire site types along the soil moisture gradient in Finland. The ground water of nine sites changed between 10 m in upland forests and 0.1 m in mires, and weather during three years ranged between exceptionally wet and dry for the local climate. The NEE of upland forests was typically a sink of CO2, regardless the weather. Though, xeric pine forest was estimated to be a source of CO2 during wet and intermediate year and became a weak sink only in dry year. The NEE of forest-mire transitions ranged between a sink in dry year, while increased stand carbon sequestration could offset the reduced forest floor CO2 emission, and a source in wet year. The NEE of two sparsely forested mires strongly differed. The lawn type mire was balanced around zero and the hummock type mire was relatively strong NEE sink, regardless the weather. Generally, nearly zero N2O emission could not offset the cooling effect of net CH4 sink and net CO2 sink of upland forest and forest-mire transitions. However in sparsely forested mires, with N2O emission also nearly zero, the CH4 emission during wet and intermediate year played important role in turning the net cooling effect of NEE into a net warming. When evaluating GWP of boreal landscapes, undisturbed forest-mire transitions should be regarded as net cooling ecosystems instead of hotspots of net

Weather-Dependent Risk for Legionnaires' Disease, United States.

PubMed

Simmering, Jacob E; Polgreen, Linnea A; Hornick, Douglas B; Sewell, Daniel K; Polgreen, Philip M

2017-11-01

Using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample and US weather data, we estimated the probability of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) being diagnosed as Legionnaires' disease (LD). LD risk increases when weather is warm and humid. With warm weather, we found a dose-response relationship between relative humidity and the odds for LD. When the mean temperature was 60°-80°F with high humidity (>80.0%), the odds for CAP being diagnosed with LD were 3.1 times higher than with lower levels of humidity (<50.0%). Thus, in some regions (e.g., the Southwest), LD is rarely the cause of hospitalizations. In other regions and seasons (e.g., the mid-Atlantic in summer), LD is much more common. Thus, suspicion for LD should increase when weather is warm and humid. However, when weather is cold, dry, or extremely hot, empirically treating all CAP patients for LD might contribute to excessive antimicrobial drug use at a population level.

Arctic-midlatitude weather linkages in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin

2018-06-01

There is intense public interest in whether major Arctic changes can and will impact midlatitude weather such as cold air outbreaks on the central and east side of continents. Although there is progress in linkage research for eastern Asia, a clear gap is conformation for North America. We show two stationary temperature/geopotential height patterns where warmer Arctic temperatures have reinforced existing tropospheric jet stream wave amplitudes over North America: a Greenland/Baffin Block pattern during December 2010 and an Alaska Ridge pattern during December 2017. Even with continuing Arctic warming over the past decade, other recent eastern US winter months were less susceptible for an Arctic linkage: the jet stream was represented by either zonal flow, progressive weather systems, or unfavorable phasing of the long wave pattern. The present analysis lays the scientific controversy over the validity of linkages to the inherent intermittency of jet stream dynamics, which provides only an occasional bridge between Arctic thermodynamic forcing and extended midlatitude weather events.

Experimental winter warming modifies thermal performance and primes acorn ants for warm weather.

PubMed

MacLean, Heidi J; Penick, Clint A; Dunn, Robert R; Diamond, Sarah E

2017-07-01

The frequency of warm winter days is increasing under global climate change, but how organisms respond to warmer winters is not well understood. Most studies focus on growing season responses to warming. Locomotor performance is often highly sensitive to temperature, and can determine fitness outcomes through a variety of mechanisms including resource acquisition and predator escape. As a consequence, locomotor performance, and its impacts on fitness, may be strongly affected by winter warming in winter-active species. Here we use the acorn ant, Temnothorax curvispinosus, to explore how thermal performance (temperature-driven plasticity) in running speed is influenced by experimental winter warming of 3-5°C above ambient in a field setting. We used running speed as a measure of performance as it is a common locomotor trait that influences acquisition of nest sites and food in acorn ants. Experimental winter warming significantly altered thermal performance for running speed at high (26 and 36°C) but not low test temperatures (6 and 16°C). Although we saw little differentiation in thermal performance at cooler test temperatures, we saw a marked increase in running speed at the hotter test temperatures for ants that experienced warmer winters compared with those that experienced cooler winters. Our results provide evidence that overwintering temperatures can substantially influence organismal performance, and suggest that we cannot ignore overwintering effects when forecasting organismal responses to environmental changes in temperature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identifying Heat Waves in Florida: Considerations of Missing Weather Data.

PubMed

Leary, Emily; Young, Linda J; DuClos, Chris; Jordan, Melissa M

2015-01-01

Using current climate models, regional-scale changes for Florida over the next 100 years are predicted to include warming over terrestrial areas and very likely increases in the number of high temperature extremes. No uniform definition of a heat wave exists. Most past research on heat waves has focused on evaluating the aftermath of known heat waves, with minimal consideration of missing exposure information. To identify and discuss methods of handling and imputing missing weather data and how those methods can affect identified periods of extreme heat in Florida. In addition to ignoring missing data, temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal models are described and utilized to impute missing historical weather data from 1973 to 2012 from 43 Florida weather monitors. Calculated thresholds are used to define periods of extreme heat across Florida. Modeling of missing data and imputing missing values can affect the identified periods of extreme heat, through the missing data itself or through the computed thresholds. The differences observed are related to the amount of missingness during June, July, and August, the warmest months of the warm season (April through September). Missing data considerations are important when defining periods of extreme heat. Spatio-temporal methods are recommended for data imputation. A heat wave definition that incorporates information from all monitors is advised.

Convectively induced mesoscale weather systems in the tropical and warm-season midlatitude atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smull, Bradley F.

1995-07-01

As anticipated by Nelson [1991] in the last U.S. National Report, mesoscale meteorology has continued to be an area of vigorous research activity. Progress is evinced by a growing number of process-oriented studies capitalizing on expanded observational capabilities, as well as more theoretical treatments employing numerical simulations of increasing sophistication. While the majority of papers within the scope of this review fall into the category of basic research, the field's maturation is evident in the emergence of a growing number of applications to operational weather forecasting. Even as our ability to anticipate shifts in synoptic scale upper-air patterns and associated baroclinic developments has steadily improved, lagging skill with regard to quantitative forecasts of precipitation—particularly in situations where deep moist convection is prevalent—has sustained research in warm-season mesoscale meteorology. Each spring and summer midlatitude populations are exposed to life-threatening natural weather phenomena in the form of lightning, tornadoes, straight-line winds, hail, and flash floods. This point was driven home during the summer of 1993, when an extraordinarily persistent series of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) led to unusually severe and widespread flooding throughout the Mississippi and Missouri river basins. In addition to this obvious impact on regional climate, the 1990's have brought an increased appreciation for the less direct yet potentially significant role that tropical convection may play in shaping global climate through phenomena such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Respiratory hospital admissions and weather changes: a retrospective study in Charlottesville, Virginia, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Robert E.; Enfield, Kyle B.

2018-02-01

In most midlatitude locations, human morbidity and mortality are highly seasonal, with winter peaks driven by respiratory disease and associated comorbidities. But the transition between high and low mortality/morbidity months varies spatially. We use a measure of the thermal biophysical strain imposed on the respiratory system—the Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI)—to examine respiratory hospital admissions in Charlottesville, VA. Daily respiratory admissions to the University of Virginia over a 19-year period are compared to ATSI values derived from hourly surface weather data acquired from the Charlottesville airport. Negative ATSI values (associated with transitions from warm (and humid) to cold (and dry) conditions) are related to admission peaks at seasonal and weekly timescales, whereas positive ATSI values (cold to warm) exhibit weaker relationships. This research marks the first application of the ATSI to human morbidity, and results suggest that respiratory strain may account for how people who are acclimated to different climates respond to short-term weather changes.

Respiratory hospital admissions and weather changes: a retrospective study in Charlottesville, Virginia, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Robert E.; Enfield, Kyle B.

2018-06-01

In most midlatitude locations, human morbidity and mortality are highly seasonal, with winter peaks driven by respiratory disease and associated comorbidities. But the transition between high and low mortality/morbidity months varies spatially. We use a measure of the thermal biophysical strain imposed on the respiratory system—the Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI)—to examine respiratory hospital admissions in Charlottesville, VA. Daily respiratory admissions to the University of Virginia over a 19-year period are compared to ATSI values derived from hourly surface weather data acquired from the Charlottesville airport. Negative ATSI values (associated with transitions from warm (and humid) to cold (and dry) conditions) are related to admission peaks at seasonal and weekly timescales, whereas positive ATSI values (cold to warm) exhibit weaker relationships. This research marks the first application of the ATSI to human morbidity, and results suggest that respiratory strain may account for how people who are acclimated to different climates respond to short-term weather changes.

Identifying Heat Waves in Florida: Considerations of Missing Weather Data

PubMed Central

Leary, Emily; Young, Linda J.; DuClos, Chris; Jordan, Melissa M.

2015-01-01

Background Using current climate models, regional-scale changes for Florida over the next 100 years are predicted to include warming over terrestrial areas and very likely increases in the number of high temperature extremes. No uniform definition of a heat wave exists. Most past research on heat waves has focused on evaluating the aftermath of known heat waves, with minimal consideration of missing exposure information. Objectives To identify and discuss methods of handling and imputing missing weather data and how those methods can affect identified periods of extreme heat in Florida. Methods In addition to ignoring missing data, temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal models are described and utilized to impute missing historical weather data from 1973 to 2012 from 43 Florida weather monitors. Calculated thresholds are used to define periods of extreme heat across Florida. Results Modeling of missing data and imputing missing values can affect the identified periods of extreme heat, through the missing data itself or through the computed thresholds. The differences observed are related to the amount of missingness during June, July, and August, the warmest months of the warm season (April through September). Conclusions Missing data considerations are important when defining periods of extreme heat. Spatio-temporal methods are recommended for data imputation. A heat wave definition that incorporates information from all monitors is advised. PMID:26619198

Accelerated increase in the Arctic tropospheric warming events surpassing stratospheric warming events during winter: Accelerated Increase in Arctic Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, S. -Y. Simon; Lin, Yen-Heng; Lee, Ming-Ying

In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March-April. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as well as those documented in previous studies. Our results indicate a recent and accelerated increasemore » in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. Given that tropospheric warming events occur twice as fast than the stratospheric warming type, the noted increase in the former implies further intensification in midlatitude winter weather extremes similar to those experienced in early 2016. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated impact on the anomalously cold Siberia.« less

Severe Weather

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forde, Evan B.

2004-01-01

Educating the public about safety issues related to severe weather is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) mission. This month's insert, Severe Weather, has been created by NOAA to help educate the public about hazardous weather conditions. The four types of severe weather highlighted in this poster are hurricanes,…

Warm Hands and Feet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Comfort Products, Inc. was responsible for the cold weather glove and thermal boots, adapted from a spacesuit design that kept astronauts warm or cool in the temperature extremes of the Apollo Moon Mission. Gloves and boots are thermally heated. Batteries are worn inside wrist of glove or sealed in sole of skiboot and are rechargeable hundreds of times. They operate flexible resistance circuit which is turned on periodically when wearer wants to be warm.

Relationship between work-related accidents and hot weather conditions in Tuscany (central Italy).

PubMed

Morabito, Marco; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Crisci, Alfonso; Modesti, Pietro Amedeo; Orlandini, Simone

2006-07-01

Nowadays, no studies have been published on the relationship between meteorological conditions and work-related mortality and morbidity in Italy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between hot weather conditions and hospital admissions due to work-related accidents in Tuscany (central Italy) over the period 1998-2003. Apparent temperature (AT) values were calculated to evaluate human weather discomfort due to hot conditions and then tested for work accident differences using non-parametric procedures. Present findings showed that hot weather conditions might represent a risk factor for work-related accidents in Italy during summer. In particular early warming days during June, characterized by heat discomfort, are less tolerated by workers than warming days of the following summer months. The peak of work-related accidents occurred on days characterized by high, but not extreme, thermal conditions. Workers maybe change their behaviour when heat stress increases, reducing risks by adopting preventive measures. Results suggested that days with an average daytime AT value ranged between 24.8 degrees C and 27.5 degrees C were at the highest risk of work-related accidents. In conclusion, present findings might represent the first step for the development of a watch/warning system for workers that might be used by employers for planning work activities.

Weather Effects on Crop Diseases in Eastern Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conradt, Tobias

2017-04-01

Since the 1970s there are several long-term monitoring programmes for plant diseases and pests in Germany. Within the framework of a national research project, some otherwise confidential databases comprising 77 111 samples from numerous sites accross Eastern Germany could be accessed and analysed. The pest data covered leaf rust (Puccinia triticina) and powdery mildew (Blumeria graminis) in winter wheat, aphids (Aphididae, four genera) on wheat and other cereal crops, late blight (Phytophthora infestans) in potatoes, and pollen beetles (Brassicogethes aeneus) on rape. These data were complemented by daily weather observations from the German Weather Service (DWD). In a first step, Pearson correlations between weather variables and pest frequencies were calculated for seasonal time periods of different start months and durations and ordered into so-called correlograms. This revealed principal weather effects on disease spread - e. g. that wind is favourable for mildew throughout the year or that rape pollen beetles like it warm, but not during wintertime. Secondly, the pest frequency samples were found to resemble gamma distributions, and a generalised linear model was fitted to describe their parameter shift depending on end-of-winter temperatures for aphids on cereals. The method clearly shows potential for systematic pest risk assessments regarding climate change.

Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrews, Bill

1995-01-01

A resource for teaching about the consequences of global warming. Discusses feedback from the temperature increase, changes in the global precipitation pattern, effects on agriculture, weather extremes, effects on forests, effects on biodiversity, effects on sea levels, and actions which will help the global community cope with global warming. (LZ)

Accelerated increase in the Arctic tropospheric warming events surpassing stratospheric warming events during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Lin, Yen-Heng; Lee, Ming-Ying; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Meyer, Jonathan D. D.; Rasch, Philip J.

2017-04-01

In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as documented in previous studies. The analysis indicates a recent and seemingly accelerated increase in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. The shorter duration and more rapid transition of tropospheric warming events may connect to the documented increase in midlatitude weather extremes, more so than the route of stratospheric warming type. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated remarkable strengthening of the cold Siberian high manifest in 2016.

Environmental variables associated with vacationers' sun protection at warm weather resorts in North America.

PubMed

Andersen, Peter A; Buller, David B; Walkosz, Barbara J; Scott, Michael D; Beck, Larry; Liu, Xia; Abbott, Allison; Eye, Rachel

2016-04-01

Vacationing at sunny, warm weather locations is a risk factor for excessive solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure and skin cancer. This study examined the association of environmental variables related to UV levels with vacationers' sun protection. Vacationers at 41 summer resorts in 17 states and 1 Canadian Province were interviewed (n=3531) and observed (N=4347) during 2012 and 2013. Clothing coverage, sunglasses, and shade use were observed. Use of sunscreen and sunburns were self-reported. Environmental information was recorded by research staff or acquired from ground stations and the weather service. Temperature was positively associated with sun protection behaviors; however clothing coverage was negatively associated with temperature. Cloud cover was negatively associated with sun protection, with the exception of clothing coverage which was positively associated with it. Elevation showed a mixed pattern of associations with vacationer's sun protection. Latitude of a resort was negatively associated with most sun protection behaviors, such that sun protection increased at more southerly resorts. Similarly, the farther south a vacationer traveled to the resort, the less sun protection they employed. The UV index showed a weak, positive relationship with some sun protection behaviors even when controlling for temperature. Vacationers appeared aware that UV is higher at southern latitudes and may learn UV is intense when living in southern regions. However, many used temperature, an unreliable cue, to judge UV intensity and seemed to adjust clothing for warmth not UV protection. Efforts are needed to help individuals make more accurate sun safety decisions. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Using cloud and climate data to understand warm season hydrometeorology from diurnal to monthly timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, A. K.; Tawfik, A. B.; Desjardins, R. L.

2016-12-01

We use 600 station years of hourly data from 14 stations on the Canadian Prairies to map the warm season hydrometeorology. The months from April (after snowmelt) to September, have a very similar coupling between surface thermodynamics and opaque cloud cover, which has been calibrated to give cloud radiative forcing. We can derive both the mean diurnal ranges and the diurnal imbalances as a function of opaque cloud cover. For the monthly diurnal climate, we compute the coupling coefficients with opaque cloud cover and lagged precipitation. In April the diurnal cycle climate has memory of precipitation back to freeze-up in November. During the growing season months of June, July and August, there is memory of precipitation back to March. Monthly mean temperature depends strongly on cloud but little on precipitation, while monthly mean mixing ratio depends on precipitation, but rather little on cloud. The coupling coefficients to cloud and precipitation change with increasing monthly precipitation anomaly. This observational climate analysis provides a firm basis for model evaluation.

Dynamics of 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming event and its impact on cold weather over Eurasia: Role of planetary wave reflection

PubMed Central

Nath, Debashis; Chen, Wen; Zelin, Cai; Pogoreltsev, Alexander Ivanovich; Wei, Ke

2016-01-01

In the present study, we investigate the impact of stratospheric planetary wave reflection on tropospheric weather over Central Eurasia during the 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. We analyze EP fluxes and Plumb wave activity fluxes to study the two and three dimensional aspects of wave propagation, respectively. The 2013 SSW event is excited by the combined influence of wavenumber 1 (WN1) and wavenumber 2 (WN2) planetary waves, which makes the event an unusual one and seems to have significant impact on tropospheric weather regime. We observe an extraordinary development of a ridge over the Siberian Tundra and the North Pacific during first development stage (last week of December 2012) and later from the North Atlantic in the second development stage (first week of January 2013), and these waves appear to be responsible for the excitation of the WN2 pattern during the SSW. The wave packets propagated upward and were then reflected back down to central Eurasia due to strong negative wind shear in the upper stratospheric polar jet, caused by the SSW event. Waves that propagated downward led to the formation of a deep trough over Eurasia and brought extreme cold weather over Kazakhstan, the Southern part of Russia and the Northwestern part of China during mid-January 2013. PMID:27051997

Dynamics of 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming event and its impact on cold weather over Eurasia: Role of planetary wave reflection.

PubMed

Nath, Debashis; Chen, Wen; Zelin, Cai; Pogoreltsev, Alexander Ivanovich; Wei, Ke

2016-04-07

In the present study, we investigate the impact of stratospheric planetary wave reflection on tropospheric weather over Central Eurasia during the 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. We analyze EP fluxes and Plumb wave activity fluxes to study the two and three dimensional aspects of wave propagation, respectively. The 2013 SSW event is excited by the combined influence of wavenumber 1 (WN1) and wavenumber 2 (WN2) planetary waves, which makes the event an unusual one and seems to have significant impact on tropospheric weather regime. We observe an extraordinary development of a ridge over the Siberian Tundra and the North Pacific during first development stage (last week of December 2012) and later from the North Atlantic in the second development stage (first week of January 2013), and these waves appear to be responsible for the excitation of the WN2 pattern during the SSW. The wave packets propagated upward and were then reflected back down to central Eurasia due to strong negative wind shear in the upper stratospheric polar jet, caused by the SSW event. Waves that propagated downward led to the formation of a deep trough over Eurasia and brought extreme cold weather over Kazakhstan, the Southern part of Russia and the Northwestern part of China during mid-January 2013.

Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in Southern Québec forests: Implications for fire risk management

PubMed Central

Marchal, Jean; Cumming, Steve G.; McIntire, Eliot J. B.

2017-01-01

Fire activity in North American forests is expected to increase substantially with climate change. This would represent a growing risk to human settlements and industrial infrastructure proximal to forests, and to the forest products industry. We modelled fire size distributions in southern Québec as functions of fire weather and land cover, thus explicitly integrating some of the biotic interactions and feedbacks in a forest-wildfire system. We found that, contrary to expectations, land-cover and not fire weather was the primary driver of fire size in our study region. Fires were highly selective on fuel-type under a wide range of fire weather conditions: specifically, deciduous forest, lakes and to a lesser extent recently burned areas decreased the expected fire size in their vicinity compared to conifer forest. This has large implications for fire risk management in that fuels management could reduce fire risk over the long term. Our results imply, for example, that if 30% of a conifer-dominated landscape were converted to hardwoods, the probability of a given fire, occurring in that landscape under mean fire weather conditions, exceeding 100,000 ha would be reduced by a factor of 21. A similarly marked but slightly smaller effect size would be expected under extreme fire weather conditions. We attribute the decrease in expected fire size that occurs in recently burned areas to fuel availability limitations on fires spread. Because regenerating burned conifer stands often pass through a deciduous stage, this would also act as a negative biotic feedback whereby the occurrence of fires limits the size of nearby future for some period of time. Our parameter estimates imply that changes in vegetation flammability or fuel availability after fires would tend to counteract shifts in the fire size distribution favoring larger fires that are expected under climate warming. Ecological forecasts from models neglecting these feedbacks may markedly overestimate the

Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in Southern Québec forests: Implications for fire risk management.

PubMed

Marchal, Jean; Cumming, Steve G; McIntire, Eliot J B

2017-01-01

Fire activity in North American forests is expected to increase substantially with climate change. This would represent a growing risk to human settlements and industrial infrastructure proximal to forests, and to the forest products industry. We modelled fire size distributions in southern Québec as functions of fire weather and land cover, thus explicitly integrating some of the biotic interactions and feedbacks in a forest-wildfire system. We found that, contrary to expectations, land-cover and not fire weather was the primary driver of fire size in our study region. Fires were highly selective on fuel-type under a wide range of fire weather conditions: specifically, deciduous forest, lakes and to a lesser extent recently burned areas decreased the expected fire size in their vicinity compared to conifer forest. This has large implications for fire risk management in that fuels management could reduce fire risk over the long term. Our results imply, for example, that if 30% of a conifer-dominated landscape were converted to hardwoods, the probability of a given fire, occurring in that landscape under mean fire weather conditions, exceeding 100,000 ha would be reduced by a factor of 21. A similarly marked but slightly smaller effect size would be expected under extreme fire weather conditions. We attribute the decrease in expected fire size that occurs in recently burned areas to fuel availability limitations on fires spread. Because regenerating burned conifer stands often pass through a deciduous stage, this would also act as a negative biotic feedback whereby the occurrence of fires limits the size of nearby future for some period of time. Our parameter estimates imply that changes in vegetation flammability or fuel availability after fires would tend to counteract shifts in the fire size distribution favoring larger fires that are expected under climate warming. Ecological forecasts from models neglecting these feedbacks may markedly overestimate the

Accelerated Increase in the Arctic Tropospheric Warming Events Surpassing StratosphericWarming Events During Winter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Simon; Lin, Yen-Heng; Lee, Ming-Ying

2017-04-22

In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March-April. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as well as those documented in previous studies. Our results indicate a recent and accelerated increasemore » in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. Given that tropospheric warming events occur twice as fast than the stratospheric warming type, the noted increase in the former implies further intensification in midlatitude winter weather extremes similar to those experienced in early 2016. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated impact on the anomalously cold Siberia.« less

Fundamental statistical relationships between monthly and daily meteorological variables: Temporal downscaling of weather based on a global observational dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sommer, Philipp; Kaplan, Jed

2016-04-01

Accurate modelling of large-scale vegetation dynamics, hydrology, and other environmental processes requires meteorological forcing on daily timescales. While meteorological data with high temporal resolution is becoming increasingly available, simulations for the future or distant past are limited by lack of data and poor performance of climate models, e.g., in simulating daily precipitation. To overcome these limitations, we may temporally downscale monthly summary data to a daily time step using a weather generator. Parameterization of such statistical models has traditionally been based on a limited number of observations. Recent developments in the archiving, distribution, and analysis of "big data" datasets provide new opportunities for the parameterization of a temporal downscaling model that is applicable over a wide range of climates. Here we parameterize a WGEN-type weather generator using more than 50 million individual daily meteorological observations, from over 10'000 stations covering all continents, based on the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and Synoptic Cloud Reports (EECRA) databases. Using the resulting "universal" parameterization and driven by monthly summaries, we downscale mean temperature (minimum and maximum), cloud cover, and total precipitation, to daily estimates. We apply a hybrid gamma-generalized Pareto distribution to calculate daily precipitation amounts, which overcomes much of the inability of earlier weather generators to simulate high amounts of daily precipitation. Our globally parameterized weather generator has numerous applications, including vegetation and crop modelling for paleoenvironmental studies.

Weather explains high annual variation in butterfly dispersal

PubMed Central

Rytteri, Susu; Heikkinen, Risto K.; Heliölä, Janne; von Bagh, Peter

2016-01-01

Weather conditions fundamentally affect the activity of short-lived insects. Annual variation in weather is therefore likely to be an important determinant of their between-year variation in dispersal, but conclusive empirical studies are lacking. We studied whether the annual variation of dispersal can be explained by the flight season's weather conditions in a Clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne) metapopulation. This metapopulation was monitored using the mark–release–recapture method for 12 years. Dispersal was quantified for each monitoring year using three complementary measures: emigration rate (fraction of individuals moving between habitat patches), average residence time in the natal patch, and average distance moved. There was much variation both in dispersal and average weather conditions among the years. Weather variables significantly affected the three measures of dispersal and together with adjusting variables explained 79–91% of the variation observed in dispersal. Different weather variables became selected in the models explaining variation in three dispersal measures apparently because of the notable intercorrelations. In general, dispersal rate increased with increasing temperature, solar radiation, proportion of especially warm days, and butterfly density, and decreased with increasing cloudiness, rainfall, and wind speed. These results help to understand and model annually varying dispersal dynamics of species affected by global warming. PMID:27440662

Weather explains high annual variation in butterfly dispersal.

PubMed

Kuussaari, Mikko; Rytteri, Susu; Heikkinen, Risto K; Heliölä, Janne; von Bagh, Peter

2016-07-27

Weather conditions fundamentally affect the activity of short-lived insects. Annual variation in weather is therefore likely to be an important determinant of their between-year variation in dispersal, but conclusive empirical studies are lacking. We studied whether the annual variation of dispersal can be explained by the flight season's weather conditions in a Clouded Apollo (Parnassius mnemosyne) metapopulation. This metapopulation was monitored using the mark-release-recapture method for 12 years. Dispersal was quantified for each monitoring year using three complementary measures: emigration rate (fraction of individuals moving between habitat patches), average residence time in the natal patch, and average distance moved. There was much variation both in dispersal and average weather conditions among the years. Weather variables significantly affected the three measures of dispersal and together with adjusting variables explained 79-91% of the variation observed in dispersal. Different weather variables became selected in the models explaining variation in three dispersal measures apparently because of the notable intercorrelations. In general, dispersal rate increased with increasing temperature, solar radiation, proportion of especially warm days, and butterfly density, and decreased with increasing cloudiness, rainfall, and wind speed. These results help to understand and model annually varying dispersal dynamics of species affected by global warming. © 2016 The Author(s).

High resolution reconstruction of monthly precipitation of Iberian Peninsula using circulation weather types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortesi, N.; Trigo, R.; Gonzalez-Hidalgo, J. C.; Ramos, A. M.

2012-06-01

Precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) is highly variable and shows large spatial contrasts between wet mountainous regions, to the north, and dry regions in the inland plains and southern areas. In this work, a high-density monthly precipitation dataset for the IP was coupled with a set of 26 atmospheric circulation weather types (Trigo and DaCamara, 2000) to reconstruct Iberian monthly precipitation from October to May with a very high resolution of 3030 precipitation series (overall mean density one station each 200 km2). A stepwise linear regression model with forward selection was used to develop monthly reconstructed precipitation series calibrated and validated over 1948-2003 period. Validation was conducted by means of a leave-one-out cross-validation over the calibration period. The results show a good model performance for selected months, with a mean coefficient of variation (CV) around 0.6 for validation period, being particularly robust over the western and central sectors of IP, while the predicted values in the Mediterranean and northern coastal areas are less acute. We show for three long stations (Lisbon, Madrid and Valencia) the comparison between model and original data as an example to how these models can be used in order to obtain monthly precipitation fields since the 1850s over most of IP for this very high density network.

Weather elements, chemical air pollutants and airborne pollen influencing asthma emergency room visits in Szeged, Hungary: performance of two objective weather classifications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makra, László; Puskás, János; Matyasovszky, István; Csépe, Zoltán; Lelovics, Enikő; Bálint, Beatrix; Tusnády, Gábor

2015-09-01

Weather classification approaches may be useful tools in modelling the occurrence of respiratory diseases. The aim of the study is to compare the performance of an objectively defined weather classification and the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) in classifying emergency department (ED) visits for acute asthma depending from weather, air pollutants, and airborne pollen variables for Szeged, Hungary, for the 9-year period 1999-2007. The research is performed for three different pollen-related periods of the year and the annual data set. According to age and gender, nine patient categories, eight meteorological variables, seven chemical air pollutants, and two pollen categories were used. In general, partly dry and cold air and partly warm and humid air aggravate substantially the symptoms of asthmatics. Our major findings are consistent with this establishment. Namely, for the objectively defined weather types favourable conditions for asthma ER visits occur when an anticyclonic ridge weather situation happens with near extreme temperature and humidity parameters. Accordingly, the SSC weather types facilitate aggravating asthmatic conditions if warm or cool weather occur with high humidity in both cases. Favourable conditions for asthma attacks are confirmed in the extreme seasons when atmospheric stability contributes to enrichment of air pollutants. The total efficiency of the two classification approaches is similar in spite of the fact that the methodology for derivation of the individual types within the two classification approaches is completely different.

Weather elements, chemical air pollutants and airborne pollen influencing asthma emergency room visits in Szeged, Hungary: performance of two objective weather classifications.

PubMed

Makra, László; Puskás, János; Matyasovszky, István; Csépe, Zoltán; Lelovics, Enikő; Bálint, Beatrix; Tusnády, Gábor

2015-09-01

Weather classification approaches may be useful tools in modelling the occurrence of respiratory diseases. The aim of the study is to compare the performance of an objectively defined weather classification and the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) in classifying emergency department (ED) visits for acute asthma depending from weather, air pollutants, and airborne pollen variables for Szeged, Hungary, for the 9-year period 1999-2007. The research is performed for three different pollen-related periods of the year and the annual data set. According to age and gender, nine patient categories, eight meteorological variables, seven chemical air pollutants, and two pollen categories were used. In general, partly dry and cold air and partly warm and humid air aggravate substantially the symptoms of asthmatics. Our major findings are consistent with this establishment. Namely, for the objectively defined weather types favourable conditions for asthma ER visits occur when an anticyclonic ridge weather situation happens with near extreme temperature and humidity parameters. Accordingly, the SSC weather types facilitate aggravating asthmatic conditions if warm or cool weather occur with high humidity in both cases. Favourable conditions for asthma attacks are confirmed in the extreme seasons when atmospheric stability contributes to enrichment of air pollutants. The total efficiency of the two classification approaches is similar in spite of the fact that the methodology for derivation of the individual types within the two classification approaches is completely different.

Climate Control Load Reduction Strategies for Electric Drive Vehicles in Warm Weather

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeffers, M. A.; Chaney, L.; Rugh, J. P.

Passenger compartment climate control is one of the largest auxiliary loads on a vehicle. Like conventional vehicles, electric vehicles (EVs) require climate control to maintain occupant comfort and safety, but cabin heating and air conditioning have a negative impact on driving range for all electric vehicles. Range reduction caused by climate control and other factors is a barrier to widespread adoption of EVs. Reducing the thermal loads on the climate control system will extend driving range, thereby reducing consumer range anxiety and increasing the market penetration of EVs. Researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory have investigated strategies for vehiclemore » climate control load reduction, with special attention toward EVs. Outdoor vehicle thermal testing was conducted on two 2012 Ford Focus Electric vehicles to evaluate thermal management strategies for warm weather, including solar load reduction and cabin pre-ventilation. An advanced thermal test manikin was used to assess a zonal approach to climate control. In addition, vehicle thermal analysis was used to support testing by exploring thermal load reduction strategies, evaluating occupant thermal comfort, and calculating EV range impacts. Through stationary cooling tests and vehicle simulations, a zonal cooling configuration demonstrated range improvement of 6%-15%, depending on the drive cycle. A combined cooling configuration that incorporated thermal load reduction and zonal cooling strategies showed up to 33% improvement in EV range.« less

A self-instructional manual for installing low-cost/no-cost weatherization materials: Experimental validation with scouts

PubMed Central

Pavlovich, Mark; Greene, Brandon F.

1984-01-01

In this study, we describe the development and evaluation of a self-instructional program for installing 10 low-cost/no-cost weatherization materials (e.g., weatherstripping, caulking). This program was a weatherization and retrofit manual (WARM) providing step-by-step instructions and illustrations. Boy and Girl Scouts participated and used either the WARM or existing product instructions (EPI) to apply the materials. Scouts installed the materials properly only when they used the WARM. PMID:16795671

Quantification of Local Warming Trend: A Remote Sensing-Based Approach

PubMed Central

Rahaman, Khan Rubayet; Hassan, Quazi K.

2017-01-01

Understanding the warming trends at local level is critical; and, the development of relevant adaptation and mitigation policies at those levels are quite challenging. Here, our overall goal was to generate local warming trend map at 1 km spatial resolution by using: (i) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based 8-day composite surface temperature data; (ii) weather station-based yearly average air temperature data; and (iii) air temperature normal (i.e., 30 year average) data over the Canadian province of Alberta during the period 1961–2010. Thus, we analysed the station-based air temperature data in generating relationships between air temperature normal and yearly average air temperature in order to facilitate the selection of year-specific MODIS-based surface temperature data. These MODIS data in conjunction with weather station-based air temperature normal data were then used to model local warming trends. We observed that almost 88% areas of the province experienced warming trends (i.e., up to 1.5°C). The study concluded that remote sensing technology could be useful for delineating generic trends associated with local warming. PMID:28072857

Does the weather influence public opinion about climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, S. D.; McDaniel, J.

2010-12-01

Public opinion in North America about the science of anthropogenic climate change and the motivation for policy action has been variable over the past twenty years. The trends in public opinion over time have been attributed the general lack of pressing public concern about climate change to a range of political, economic and psychological factors. One driving force behind the variability in polling data from year to year may be the weather itself. The difference between what we “expect” - the climate - and what we “get” - the weather - can be a major source of confusion and obfuscation in the public discourse about climate change. For example, reaction to moderate global temperatures in 2007 and 2008 may have helped prompt the spread of a “global cooling” meme in the public and the news media. At the same time, a decrease in the belief in the science of climate change and the need for action has been noted in opinion polls. This study analyzes the relationship between public opinion about climate change and the weather in the U.S. since the mid-1980s using historical polling data from several major organizations (e.g. Gallup, Pew, Harris Interactive, ABC News), historical monthly air temperature (NCDC) and a survey of opinion articles from major U.S. newspapers (Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Houston Chronicle, USA Today). Seasonal and annual monthly temperature anomalies for the northeastern U.S and the continental U.S are compared with available national opinion data for three general categories of questions: i) Is the climate warming?, ii) Is the observed warming due to human activity?, and iii) Are you concerned about climate change? The variability in temperature and public opinion over time is also compared with the variability in the fraction of opinion articles in the newspapers (n ~ 7000) which express general agreement or disagreement with IPCC Summary for Policymakers consensus statements on climate change (“most of

Beneficial effects of warmed humidified oxygen combined with nebulized albuterol and ipratropium in pediatric patients with acute exacerbation of asthma in winter months.

PubMed

Nibhanipudi, Kumara; Hassen, Getaw Worku; Smith, Arthur

2009-11-01

The objective of this study was to determine whether a combination of nebulized albuterol and ipratropium with warmed humidified oxygen would be more beneficial when compared to the same combination with humidified oxygen at room temperature. Albuterol alone was tested in the same settings. All patients between 6 and 17 years of age who presented to a pediatric emergency department in the winter months with acute exacerbation of bronchial asthma were given a combination of nebulized albuterol and ipratropium with warmed or room temperature humidified oxygen. Peak flow was measured before and after the treatment. Sixty patients were enrolled in the study, with 15 subjects in each group. The mean increase in peak flow in the albuterol-ipratropium with warm humidified oxygen group was 52.6, and in the albuterol-ipratropium with humidified oxygen at room temperature group, it was 26.2. The results of the albuterol with warmed humidified oxygen and with humidified oxygen at room temperature groups were 20.6 and 34.3, respectively. The differences between the groups were statistically significant. Our study shows that warmed humidified oxygen given along with the combination of nebulized albuterol and ipratropium is more beneficial for pediatric patients having an acute exacerbation of bronchial asthma in the winter months when compared to nebulized albuterol alone with warmed humidified oxygen, nebulized albuterol alone with room temperature humidified oxygen, or a combination of nebulized albuterol and ipratropium with room temperature humidified oxygen.

Weather conditions and visits to the medical wing of emergency rooms in a metropolitan area during the warm season in Israel: a predictive model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novikov, Ilya; Kalter-Leibovici, Ofra; Chetrit, Angela; Stav, Nir; Epstein, Yoram

2012-01-01

Global climate changes affect health and present new challenges to healthcare systems. The aim of the present study was to analyze the pattern of visits to the medical wing of emergency rooms (ERs) in public hospitals during warm seasons, and to develop a predictive model that will forecast the number of visits to ERs 2 days ahead. Data on daily visits to the ERs of the four largest medical centers in the Tel-Aviv metropolitan area during the warm months of the year (April-October, 2001-2004), the corresponding daily meteorological data, daily electrical power consumption (a surrogate marker for air-conditioning), air-pollution parameters, and calendar information were obtained and used in the analyses. The predictive model employed a time series analysis with transitional Poisson regression. The concise multivariable model was highly accurate ( r 2 = 0.819). The contribution of mean daily temperature was small but significant: an increase of 1°C in ambient temperature was associated with a 1.47% increase in the number of ER visits ( P < 0.001). An increase in electrical power consumption significantly attenuated the effect of weather conditions on ER visits by 4% per 1,000 MWh ( P < 0.001). Higher daily mean SO2 concentrations were associated with a greater number of ER visits (1% per 1 ppb increment; P = 0.017). Calendar data were the main predictors of ER visits ( r 2 = 0.794). The predictive model was highly accurate in forecasting the number of visits to ERs 2 days ahead. The marginal effect of temperature on the number of ER visits can be attributed to behavioral adaptations, including the use of air-conditioning.

Effect of warming temperatures on US wheat yields.

PubMed

Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Nalley, Lawton Lanier

2015-06-02

Climate change is expected to increase future temperatures, potentially resulting in reduced crop production in many key production regions. Research quantifying the complex relationship between weather variables and wheat yields is rapidly growing, and recent advances have used a variety of model specifications that differ in how temperature data are included in the statistical yield equation. A unique data set that combines Kansas wheat variety field trial outcomes for 1985-2013 with location-specific weather data is used to analyze the effect of weather on wheat yield using regression analysis. Our results indicate that the effect of temperature exposure varies across the September-May growing season. The largest drivers of yield loss are freezing temperatures in the Fall and extreme heat events in the Spring. We also find that the overall effect of warming on yields is negative, even after accounting for the benefits of reduced exposure to freezing temperatures. Our analysis indicates that there exists a tradeoff between average (mean) yield and ability to resist extreme heat across varieties. More-recently released varieties are less able to resist heat than older lines. Our results also indicate that warming effects would be partially offset by increased rainfall in the Spring. Finally, we find that the method used to construct measures of temperature exposure matters for both the predictive performance of the regression model and the forecasted warming impacts on yields.

Using ISCCP Weather States to Decompose Cloud Radiative Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oreopoulos, L.; Rossow, W. B.

2012-01-01

The presentation will examine the shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) cloud radiative effect CRE (aka "cloud radiative forcing") at the top-of-the-atmosphere and surface of ISCCP weather states (aka "cloud regimes") in three distinct geographical zones, one tropical and two mid-latitude. Our goal is to understand and quantify the contribution of the different cloud regimes to the planetary radiation budget. In the tropics we find that the three most convectively active states are the ones with largest SW, LW and net TOA CRE contributions to the overall daytime tropical CRE budget. They account for 59%, 71% and 55% of the total CRE, respectively. The boundary layer-dominated weather states account for only 34% of the total SW CRE and 41% of the total net CRE, so to focus only on them in cloud feedback studies may be imprudent. We also find that in both the northern and southern midlatitude zones only two weather states, the first and third most convectively active with large amounts of nimbostratus-type clouds, contribute ",40% to both the SW and net TOA CRE budgets, highlighting the fact that cloud regimes associated with frontal systems are not only important for weather (precipitation) but also for climate (radiation budget). While all cloud regimes in all geographical zones have a slightly larger SFC than TOA SW CRE, implying cooling of the surface and slight warming of the atmosphere, their LW radiative effects are more subtle: in the tropics the weather states with plentiful high clouds warm the atmosphere while those with copious amounts of low clouds cool the atmosphere. In both midlatitude zones only the weather states with peak cloud fractions at levels above 440 mbar warm the atmosphere while all the rest cool it. These results make the connection of the contrasting CRE effects to the atmospheric dynamics more explicit - "storms" tend to warm the atmosphere whereas fair weather clouds cool it, suggesting a positive feedback of clouds on weather systems. The

Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

2005-01-01

This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

Environmental variables associated with vacationers' sun protection at warm weather resorts in North America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andersen, Peter A., E-mail: westone47@gmail.com; Buller, David B.; Walkosz, Barbara J.

Background: Vacationing at sunny, warm weather locations is a risk factor for excessive solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure and skin cancer. Objectives: This study examined the association of environmental variables related to UV levels with vacationers' sun protection. Methods: Vacationers at 41 summer resorts in 17 states and 1 Canadian Province were interviewed (n=3531) and observed (N=4347) during 2012 and 2013. Clothing coverage, sunglasses, and shade use were observed. Use of sunscreen and sunburns were self-reported. Environmental information was recorded by research staff or acquired from ground stations and the weather service. Results: Temperature was positively associated with sun protectionmore » behaviors; however clothing coverage was negatively associated with temperature. Cloud cover was negatively associated with sun protection, with the exception of clothing coverage which was positively associated with it. Elevation showed a mixed pattern of associations with vacationer's sun protection. Latitude of a resort was negatively associated with most sun protection behaviors, such that sun protection increased at more southerly resorts. Similarly, the farther south a vacationer traveled to the resort, the less sun protection they employed. The UV index showed a weak, positive relationship with some sun protection behaviors even when controlling for temperature. Conclusions: Vacationers appeared aware that UV is higher at southern latitudes and may learn UV is intense when living in southern regions. However, many used temperature, an unreliable cue, to judge UV intensity and seemed to adjust clothing for warmth not UV protection. Efforts are needed to help individuals make more accurate sun safety decisions. - Highlights: • Vacationers poorly monitor and protect against environmental ultraviolet radiation (UVR). • On cloudy days vacationers fail to protect against UVR. • Temperature is erroneously used by vacationers as a marker for UVR. �

How sea ice could be the cold beating heart of European weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margrethe Ringgaard, Ida; Yang, Shuting; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens; Kaas, Eigil

2017-04-01

The possibility that the ongoing rapid demise of Arctic sea ice may instigate abrupt changes is, however, not tackled by current research in general. Ice cores from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) show clear evidence of past abrupt warm events with up to 15 degrees warming in less than a decade, most likely triggered by rapid disappearance of Nordic Seas sea ice. At present, both Arctic Sea ice and the GIS are in strong transformation: Arctic sea-ice cover has been retreating during most of the satellite era and in recent years, Arctic sea ice experienced a dramatic reduction and the summer extent was in 2012 and 2016 only half of the 1979-2000 average. With such dramatic change in the current sea ice coverage as a point of departure, several studies have linked reduction in wintertime sea ice in the Barents-Kara seas to cold weather anomalies over Europe and through large scale tele-connections to regional warming elsewhere. Here we aim to investigate if, and how, Arctic sea ice impacts European weather, i.e. if the Arctic sea ice works as the 'cold heart' of European weather. To understand the effects of the sea ice reduction on the full climate system, a fully-coupled global climate model, EC-Earth, is used. A new energy-conserving method for assimilating sea ice using the sensible heat flux is implemented in the coupled climate model and compared to the traditional, non-conserving, method of assimilating sea ice. Using this new method, experiments are performed with reduced sea ice cover in the Barents-Kara seas under both warm and cold conditions in Europe. These experiments are used to evaluate how the Arctic sea ice modulates European winter weather under present climate conditions with a view towards favouring both relatively cold and warm conditions.

The Application of Synoptic Weather Forecasting Rules to Selected Weather Situations in the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kohler, Fred E.

The document describes the use of weather maps and data in teaching introductory college courses in synoptic meteorology. Students examine weather changes at three-hour intervals from data obtained from the "Monthly Summary of Local Climatological Data." Weather variables in the local summary include sky cover, air temperature, dew point, relative…

ENSO Weather and Coral Bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGowan, Hamish; Theobald, Alison

2017-10-01

The most devastating mass coral bleaching has occurred during El Niño events, with bleaching reported to be a direct result of increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, El Niño itself does not cause SSTs to rise in all regions that experience bleaching. Nor is the upper ocean warming trend of 0.11°C per decade since 1971, attributed to global warming, sufficient alone to exceed the thermal tolerance of corals. Here we show that weather patterns during El Niño that result in reduced cloud cover, higher than average air temperatures and higher than average atmospheric pressures, play a crucial role in determining the extent and location of coral bleaching on the world's largest coral reef system, the World Heritage Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Accordingly, synoptic-scale weather patterns and local atmosphere-ocean feedbacks related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and not large-scale SST warming due to El Niño alone and/or global warming are often the cause of coral bleaching on the GBR.

[Incidence of proximal femur fractures in relation to seasons of the year and weather].

PubMed

Burget, F; Pleva, L; Kudrna, K; Kudrnová, Z

2012-01-01

The opinion that proximal femur fractures occur mainly in the winter season and are related to slippery surfaces prevails in both the lay and medical communities. The elucidation of this relationship would lead to a better understanding of the aetiology of these fractures and may help to prevent them in the elderly population. In a retrospective study conducted at two departments, the occurrence of proximal femur fractures in patients 60+ years old in relation to weather conditions (air temperature and its humidity, atmospheric pressure, rain and mist) between January 1, 2001 and December 31, 2005 was investigated. Patients with high-energy or pathological fractures were excluded. The results were evaluated by Statistika software. A total of 1720 patients were studied, of whom 1313 were women and 407 were men. The numbers of fractures did not differ significantly among either the seasons or months of the year. No correlation was found between the number of fractures and each of the weather characteristics (air temperature and its humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and visibility). It is widely believed that hip fractures are connected with winter months and temperatures below zero. This is supported by several facts related to winter characteristics, such as slippery icy pavements, clumsiness due to warm bulky clothes, bodies affected by cold and thus predisposed to a fall and poorer visibility on shorter winter days. The effect of seasonal variation on hip fracture incidence has been investigated in 10 studies of which only one has taken the influence of daily temperature into consideration. All studies were conduced in the countries north of 40° latitude, i.e., in climatic conditions similar to our country, with temperatures falling below zero and ice-glazed pavements in winter months. Of them, six have found no relation between proximal femur fractures and weather conditions, two have reported an increased incidence of these fractures in winter months

Space Solar Patrol data and changes in weather and climate, including global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avakyan, S. V.; Baranova, L. A.; Leonov, N. B.; Savinov, E. P.; Voronin, N. A.

2010-08-01

In this paper, the results obtained during the execution of several ISTC projects are presented. The general aim of these projects has been the study of global changes in the environment, connected with solar activity. A brief description of the optical apparatus of the Space Solar Patrol (SSP) developed and built in the framework of the ISTC projects 385, 385.2, 1523 and 2500 is given. The SSP is intended for permanent monitoring of spectra and absolute fluxes of soft x-ray and extreme ultraviolet (x-ray/EUV) radiation from the full disk of the Sun which ionizes the upper atmosphere of the Earth. Permanent solar monitoring in the main part of the ionizing radiation spectra 0.8-115 (119) nm does not exist. The apparatus of the SSP was developed in the years 1996-2005 with multiyear experience of developing such apparatus in S I Vavilov State Optical Institute. The basis of this apparatus is the use of unique detectors of ionizing radiation—open secondary electron multipliers, which are 'solar blind' to near UV, visible and IR radiation from the Sun, and new methodology of these solar spectroradiometric absolute measurements. The prospects are discussed of using the SSP data for the investigation and forecast of the influence of solar variability on the weather and climate including global warming and also on the biosphere including human beings (proposal 3878). This article was originally submitted for inclusion with the papers from the 9th International Symposium on Measurement Science and Intelligent Instruments (ISMTII-2009), published in the May 2010 issue.

Severe Weather in a Changing Climate: Getting to Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, D. J.; Janssen, E.; Kunkel, K.

2011-12-01

Analyses of observation records from U.S. weather stations indicate there is an increasing trend over recent decades in certain types of severe weather, especially large precipitation events. Widespread changes in temperature extremes have been observed over the last 50 years. In particular, the number of heat waves globally (and some parts of the U.S.) has increased, and there have been widespread increases in the numbers of warm nights. Also, analyses show that we are now breaking twice as many heat records as cold records in the U.S. Since 1957, there has been an increase in the number of historically top 1% of heavy precipitation events across the U.S. Our new analyses of the repeat or reoccurrence frequencies of large precipitation storms are showing that such events are occurring more often than in the past. The pattern of precipitation change is one of increases generally at higher northern latitudes and drying in the tropics and subtropics over land. It needs to be recognized that every weather event that happens nowadays takes place in the context of the changes in the background climate system. So nothing is entirely "natural" anymore. It's a fallacy to think that individual events are caused entirely by any one thing, either natural variation or human-induced climate change. Every event is influenced by many factors. Human-induced climate change is now a factor in weather events. The changes occurring in precipitation are consistent with the analyses of our changing climate. For extreme precipitation, we know that more precipitation is falling in very heavy events. And we know key reasons why; warmer air holds more water vapor, and so when any given weather system moves through, the extra water dumps can lead to a heavy downpour. As the climate system continues to warm, models of the Earth's climate system indicate severe precipitation events will likely become more commonplace. Water vapor will continue to increase in the atmosphere along with the

Climate Change Mitigation through Enhanced Weathering in Bioenergy Crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kantola, I. B.; Masters, M. D.; Wolz, K. J.; DeLucia, E. H.

2016-12-01

Bioenergy crops are a renewable alternative to fossil fuels that reduce the net flux of CO2 to the atmosphere through carbon sequestration in plant tissues and soil. A portion of the remaining atmospheric CO2 is naturally mitigated by the chemical weathering of silica minerals, which sequester carbon as carbonates. The process of mineral weathering can be enhanced by crushing the minerals to increase surface area and applying them to agricultural soils, where warm temperatures, moisture, and plant roots and root exudates accelerate the weathering process. The carbonate byproducts of enhanced weathering are expected accumulate in soil water and reduce soil acidity, reduce nitrogen loss as N2O, and increase availability of certain soil nutrients. To determine the potential of enhanced weathering to alter the greenhouse gas balance in both annual (high disturbance, high fertilizer) and perennial (low disturbance, low fertilizer) bioenergy crops, finely ground basalt was applied to fields of maize, soybeans, and miscanthus at the University of Illinois Energy Farm. All plots showed an immediate soil temperature response at 10 cm depth, with increases of 1- 4 °C at midday. Early season CO2 and N2O fluxes mirrored soil temperature prior to canopy closure in all crops, while total N2O fluxes from miscanthus were lower than corn and soybeans in both basalt treatment and control plots. Mid-season N2O production was reduced in basalt-treated corn compared to controls. Given the increasing footprint of bioenergy crops, the ability to reduce GHG emissions in basalt-treated fields has the potential to mitigate atmospheric warming while benefitting soil fertility with the byproducts of weathering.

From vegetation zones to climatypes: Effects of climate warming on Siberian ecosystems

Treesearch

N. M. Tchebakova; G. E. Rehfeldt; E. I. Parfenova

2010-01-01

Evidence for global warming over the past 200 years is overwhelming, based on both direct weather observation and indirect physical and biological indicators such as retreating glaciers and snow/ice cover, increasing sea level, and longer growing seasons (IPCC 2001, 2007). On the background of global warming at a rate of 0.6°C during the twentieth century (IPCC 2001),...

What is the weather like today

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jovic, Sladjana

2017-04-01

Meteorology is the study of all changes in the atmosphere that surround the Earth. In this project, students will design and build some of the instruments that meteorologists use and make two school Weather Stations and placed them in different school yards so that results of weather parameters date can be follow during three months and be compared. Poster will present a procedure and a preparation how to work with weather stations that contain 1. Barometer (Air pressure) 2. Rain Gauge (Precipitation) 3. Thermometer (Temperature ) 4. Wind Vane (Wind Direction) By collecting their own data, the students found out more about weather through a process similar to the one that professional meteorologists used. Finally students compared differences between two school weather station and used these results to presented how different places had different climate and how climate changed during the months in a year. This was opportunity for cooperation between students from different schools and different grades when older students from secondary school helped younger student to make their weather station and shared knowledge and experience while they followed weather condition during the project .

Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool in MIDDS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Mark M.

2010-01-01

The goal of this task was to upgrade the severe weather database from the previous phase by adding weather observations from the years 2004 - 2009, re-analyze the data to determine the important parameters, make adjustments to the index weights depending on the analysis results, and update the MIDDS GUI. The added data increased the period of record from 15 to 21 years. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. Four of the stability indices showed increased severe weather predication. The Total Threat Score (TTS) of the previous work was verified for the warm season of 2009 with very good skill. The TTS Probability of Detection (POD) was 88% and the False alarm rate (FAR) of 8%. Based on the results of the analyses, the MIDDS Severe Weather Worksheet GUI was updated to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters and synoptic-scale dynamics.

Supracondylar humerus fractures in children: the effect of weather conditions on their risk.

PubMed

Sinikumpu, Juha-Jaakko; Pokka, Tytti; Hyvönen, Hanna; Ruuhela, Reija; Serlo, Willy

2017-02-01

Supracondylar humerus fractures are the most common fractures of the elbow in children. Many environmental factors such as weather conditions may affect the risk of these fractures. The purpose of the study was to analyze the effect of weather conditions (temperature, rainfall, wind) on fracture risk in children <16 years of age during the extended summer time period with the absence of snow cover. All children <16 years of age with an outdoor supracondylar humerus fracture between May 1 and September 30 in a defined geographical area during the decade of 2000-2009 were included. Daily meteorological recordings for altogether 1526 study days were reviewed from the national weather service and the association of weather conditions and fractures were analyzed. A majority (79.7%, N = 181) of the fractures occurred on dry days versus rainy days (20.3%) (P = 0.011), and risk of a fracture was 3.5-fold higher on dry days as compared with rainy days (crude OR 3.5, 3.41-3.59, P < 0.001). The weather was warm, instead of cool or hot, when the majority of the fractures (N = 147, 64.8%) occurred (P = 0.008): Warm temperatures (15-24.9 °C) increased the fracture risk 2.6-fold (crude OR 2.64, 2.59-2.70, P < 0.001), compared with cool (<15 °C) days. The fracture incidence did not change according to the wind speed (P = 0.171). The findings were similar through the school term and summer vacation. Dry and warm weather conditions increase the risk of outdoor supracondylar humerus fractures in children during the time period with the absence of snow cover.

Fine-scale climate change: modelling spatial variation in biologically meaningful rates of warming.

PubMed

Maclean, Ilya M D; Suggitt, Andrew J; Wilson, Robert J; Duffy, James P; Bennie, Jonathan J

2017-01-01

The existence of fine-grain climate heterogeneity has prompted suggestions that species may be able to survive future climate change in pockets of suitable microclimate, termed 'microrefugia'. However, evidence for microrefugia is hindered by lack of understanding of how rates of warming vary across a landscape. Here, we present a model that is applied to provide fine-grained, multidecadal estimates of temperature change based on the underlying physical processes that influence microclimate. Weather station and remotely derived environmental data were used to construct physical variables that capture the effects of terrain, sea surface temperatures, altitude and surface albedo on local temperatures, which were then calibrated statistically to derive gridded estimates of temperature. We apply the model to the Lizard Peninsula, United Kingdom, to provide accurate (mean error = 1.21 °C; RMS error = 1.63 °C) hourly estimates of temperature at a resolution of 100 m for the period 1977-2014. We show that rates of warming vary across a landscape primarily due to long-term trends in weather conditions. Total warming varied from 0.87 to 1.16 °C, with the slowest rates of warming evident on north-east-facing slopes. This variation contributed to substantial spatial heterogeneity in trends in bioclimatic variables: for example, the change in the length of the frost-free season varied from +11 to -54 days and the increase in annual growing degree-days from 51 to 267 °C days. Spatial variation in warming was caused primarily by a decrease in daytime cloud cover with a resulting increase in received solar radiation, and secondarily by a decrease in the strength of westerly winds, which has amplified the effects on temperature of solar radiation on west-facing slopes. We emphasize the importance of multidecadal trends in weather conditions in determining spatial variation in rates of warming, suggesting that locations experiencing least warming may not remain

A basis set for exploration of sensitivity to prescribed ocean conditions for estimating human contributions to extreme weather in CAM5.1-1degree

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stone, Dáithí A.; Risser, Mark D.; Angélil, Oliver M.

This paper presents two contributions for research into better understanding the role of anthropogenic warming in extreme weather. The first contribution is the generation of a large number of multi-decadal simulations using a medium-resolution atmospheric climate model, CAM5.1-1degree, under two scenarios of historical climate following the protocols of the C20C+ Detection and Attribution project: the one we have experienced (All-Hist), and one that might have been experienced in the absence of human interference with the climate system (Nat-Hist). These simulations are also specifically designed for understanding extreme weather and atmospheric variability in the context of anthropogenic climate change.The second contributionmore » takes advantage of the duration and size of these simulations in order to identify features of variability in the prescribed ocean conditions that may strongly influence calculated estimates of the role of anthropogenic emissions on extreme weather frequency (event attribution). There is a large amount of uncertainty in how much anthropogenic emissions should warm regional ocean surface temperatures, yet contributions to the C20C+ Detection and Attribution project and similar efforts so far use only one or a limited number of possible estimates of the ocean warming attributable to anthropogenic emissions when generating their Nat-Hist simulations. Thus, the importance of the uncertainty in regional attributable warming estimates to the results of event attribution studies is poorly understood. The identification of features of the anomalous ocean state that seem to strongly influence event attribution estimates should therefore be able to serve as a basis set for effective sampling of other plausible attributable warming patterns. The identification performed in this paper examines monthly temperature and precipitation output from the CAM5.1-1degree simulations averaged over 237 land regions, and compares interannual anomalous

A basis set for exploration of sensitivity to prescribed ocean conditions for estimating human contributions to extreme weather in CAM5.1-1degree

DOE PAGES

Stone, Dáithí A.; Risser, Mark D.; Angélil, Oliver M.; ...

2018-03-01

This paper presents two contributions for research into better understanding the role of anthropogenic warming in extreme weather. The first contribution is the generation of a large number of multi-decadal simulations using a medium-resolution atmospheric climate model, CAM5.1-1degree, under two scenarios of historical climate following the protocols of the C20C+ Detection and Attribution project: the one we have experienced (All-Hist), and one that might have been experienced in the absence of human interference with the climate system (Nat-Hist). These simulations are also specifically designed for understanding extreme weather and atmospheric variability in the context of anthropogenic climate change.The second contributionmore » takes advantage of the duration and size of these simulations in order to identify features of variability in the prescribed ocean conditions that may strongly influence calculated estimates of the role of anthropogenic emissions on extreme weather frequency (event attribution). There is a large amount of uncertainty in how much anthropogenic emissions should warm regional ocean surface temperatures, yet contributions to the C20C+ Detection and Attribution project and similar efforts so far use only one or a limited number of possible estimates of the ocean warming attributable to anthropogenic emissions when generating their Nat-Hist simulations. Thus, the importance of the uncertainty in regional attributable warming estimates to the results of event attribution studies is poorly understood. The identification of features of the anomalous ocean state that seem to strongly influence event attribution estimates should therefore be able to serve as a basis set for effective sampling of other plausible attributable warming patterns. The identification performed in this paper examines monthly temperature and precipitation output from the CAM5.1-1degree simulations averaged over 237 land regions, and compares interannual anomalous

The Influence of Recurrent Modes of Climate Variability on the Occurrence of Monthly Temperature Extremes Over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.; Detzer, Judah; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Lee, Huikyo; Barkhordarian, Armineh

2017-10-01

The associations between extreme temperature months and four prominent modes of recurrent climate variability are examined over South America. Associations are computed as the percent of extreme temperature months concurrent with the upper and lower quartiles of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Niño, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index distributions, stratified by season. The relationship is strongest for ENSO, with nearly every extreme temperature month concurrent with the upper or lower quartiles of its distribution in portions of northwestern South America during some seasons. The likelihood of extreme warm temperatures is enhanced over parts of northern South America when the Atlantic Niño index is in the upper quartile, while cold extremes are often association with the lowest quartile. Concurrent precipitation anomalies may contribute to these relations. The PDO shows weak associations during December, January, and February, while in June, July, and August its relationship with extreme warm temperatures closely matches that of ENSO. This may be due to the positive relationship between the PDO and ENSO, rather than the PDO acting as an independent physical mechanism. Over Patagonia, the SAM is highly influential during spring and fall, with warm and cold extremes being associated with positive and negative phases of the SAM, respectively. Composites of sea level pressure anomalies for extreme temperature months over Patagonia suggest an important role of local synoptic scale weather variability in addition to a favorable SAM for the occurrence of these extremes.

Hazardous Convective Weather in the Central United States: Present and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, C.; Ikeda, K.; Rasmussen, R.

2017-12-01

Two sets of 13-year continental-scale convection-permitting simulations were performed using the 4-km-resolution WRF model. They consist of a retrospective simulation, which downscales the ERA-Interim reanalysis during the period October 2000 - September 2013, and a future climate sensitivity simulation for the same period based on the perturbed reanalysis-derived boundary conditions with the CMIP5 ensemble-mean high-end emission scenario climate change. The evaluation of the retrospective simulation indicates that the model is able to realistically reproduce the main characteristics of deep precipitating convection observed in the current climate such as the spectra of convective population and propagating mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). It is also shown that severe convection and associated MCS will increase in frequency and intensity, implying a potential increase in high impact convective weather in a future warmer climate. In this study, the warm-season hazardous convective weather (i.e., tonadoes, hails and damaging gusty wind) in the central United states is examined using these 4-km downscaling simulations. First, a model-based proxy for hazardous convective weather is derived on the basis of a set of characteristic meteorological variables such as the model composite radar reflectivity, updraft helicity, vertical wind shear, and low-level wind. Second, the developed proxy is applied to the retrospective simulation for estimate of the model hazardous weather events during the historical period. Third, the simulated hazardous weather statistics are evaluated against the NOAA severe weather reports. Lastly, the proxy is applied to the future climate simulation for the projected change of hazardous convective weather in response to global warming. Preliminary results will be reported at the 2017 AGU session "High Resolution Climate Modeling".

The mid-Cretaceous super plume, carbon dioxide, and global warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Caldeira, Ken; Rampino, Michael R.

1991-01-01

Carbon-dioxide releases associated with a mid-Cretaceous super plume and the emplacement of the Ontong-Java Plateau have been suggested as a principal cause of the mid-Cretaceous global warming. A carbonate-silicate cycle model is developed to quantify the possible climatic effects of these CO2 releases, utilizing four different formulations for the rate of silicate-rock weathering as a function of atmospheric CO2. CO2 emissions resulting from super-plume tectonics could have produced atmospheric CO2 levels from 3.7 to 14.7 times the modern preindustrial value of 285 ppm. Based on the temperature sensitivity to CO2 increases used in the weathering-rate formulations, this would cause a global warming of from 2.8 to 7.7 C over today's glogal mean temperature. Altered continental positions and higher sea level may have been contributed about 4.8 C to mid-Cretaceous warming. Thus, the combined effects of paleogeographic changes and super-plume related CO2 emissions could be in the range of 7.6 to 12.5 C, within the 6 to 14 C range previously estimated for mid-Cretaceous warming. CO2 releases from oceanic plateaus alone are unlikely to have been directly responsible for more than 20 percent of the mid-Cretaceous increase in atmospheric CO2.

Experimental Evidence for Weathering and Martian Sulfate Formation Under Extremely Cold Weather-Limited Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Niles, Paul B.; Golden, D. C.; Michalski, J.

2013-01-01

High resolution photography and spectroscopy of the martian surface (MOC, HiRISE) from orbit has revolutionized our view of Mars with one of the most important discoveries being wide-spread layered sedimentary deposits associated with sulfate minerals across the low to mid latitude regions of Mars [1, 2]. The mechanism for sulfate formation on Mars has been frequently attributed to playa-like evaporative environments under prolonged warm conditions [3]. However, there are several problems with the presence of prolonged surface temperatures on Mars above 273 K during the Noachian including the faint young Sun [4] and the presence of suitable greenhouse gases [5]. The geomorphic evidence for early warm conditions may instead be explained by periodic episodes of warming rather than long term prolonged warm temperatures [6]. An alternate view of the ancient martian climate contends that prolonged warm temperatures were never present and that the atmosphere and climate has been similar to modern conditions throughout most of its history [6]. This view is more consistent with the climate models, but has had a difficult time explaining the sedimentary history of Mars and in particular the presence of sulfate minerals. We suggest here that mixtures of atmospheric aerosols, ice, and dust have the potential for creating small films of cryo-concentrated acidic solutions that may represent an important unexamined environment for understanding weathering processes on Mars [7, 8]. This study seeks to test whether sulfate formation may be possible at temperatures well below 0 C in water limited environments removing the need for prolonged warm periods to form sulfates on early Mars.

TOPEX/El Nino Watch - Warm Water Pool is Thinning, Feb, 5, 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1998-01-01

This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Feb. 5, 1998 and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The area and volume of the El Nino warm water pool that is affecting global weather patterns remains extremely large, but the pool has thinned along the equator and near the coast of South America. This 'thinning' means that the warm water is not as deep as it was a few months ago. Oceanographers indicate this is a classic pattern, typical of a mature El Nino condition that they would expect to see during the ocean's gradual transition back to normal sea level. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level. The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken and even reverse direction. This change in the winds allows a large mass of warm water (the red and white area) that is normally located near Australia to move eastward along the equator until it reaches the coast of South America. The displacement of so much warm water affects evaporation, where rain clouds form and, consequently, alters the typical atmospheric jet stream patterns around the world. Using satellite imagery, buoy and ship data, and a forecasting model of the ocean-atmosphere system, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA), has continued to issue an advisory indicating the so-called El Nino weather conditions that have impacted much of the United States and the world are expected to remain through

Implementation of bayesian model averaging on the weather data forecasting applications utilizing open weather map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmat, R. F.; Nasution, F. R.; Seniman; Syahputra, M. F.; Sitompul, O. S.

2018-02-01

Weather is condition of air in a certain region at a relatively short period of time, measured with various parameters such as; temperature, air preasure, wind velocity, humidity and another phenomenons in the atmosphere. In fact, extreme weather due to global warming would lead to drought, flood, hurricane and other forms of weather occasion, which directly affects social andeconomic activities. Hence, a forecasting technique is to predict weather with distinctive output, particullary mapping process based on GIS with information about current weather status in certain cordinates of each region with capability to forecast for seven days afterward. Data used in this research are retrieved in real time from the server openweathermap and BMKG. In order to obtain a low error rate and high accuracy of forecasting, the authors use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method. The result shows that the BMA method has good accuracy. Forecasting error value is calculated by mean square error shows (MSE). The error value emerges at minumum temperature rated at 0.28 and maximum temperature rated at 0.15. Meanwhile, the error value of minimum humidity rates at 0.38 and the error value of maximum humidity rates at 0.04. Afterall, the forecasting error rate of wind speed is at 0.076. The lower the forecasting error rate, the more optimized the accuracy is.

Crop weather models of corn and soybeans for Agrophysical Units (APU's) in Iowa using monthly meteorological predictors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leduc, S. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

Models based on multiple regression were developed to estimate corn and soybean yield from weather data for agrophysical units (APU) in Iowa. The predictor variables are derived from monthly average temperature and monthly total precipitation data at meteorological stations in the cooperative network. The models are similar in form to the previous models developed for crop reporting districts (CRD). The trends and derived variables were the same and the approach to select the significant predictors was similar to that used in developing the CRD models. The APU's were selected to be more homogeneous with respect crop to production than the CRDs. The APU models are quite similar to the CRD models, similar explained variation and number of predictor variables. The APU models are to be independently evaluated and compared to the previously evaluated CRD models. That comparison should indicate the preferred model area for this application, i.e., APU or CRD.

Verification of an ENSO-Based Long-Range Prediction of Anomalous Weather Conditions During the Vancouver 2010 Olympics and Paralympics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, Ruping; Joe, Paul I.; Doyle, Chris; Whitfield, Paul H.

2014-01-01

A brief review of the anomalous weather conditions during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games and the efforts to predict these anomalies based on some preceding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals are presented. It is shown that the Olympic Games were held under extraordinarily warm conditions in February 2010, with monthly mean temperature anomalies of +2.2 °C in Vancouver and +2.8 °C in Whistler, ranking respectively as the highest and the second highest in the past 30 years (1981-2010). The warm conditions continued, but became less anomalous, in March 2010 for the Paralympic Games. While the precipitation amounts in the area remained near normal through this winter, the lack of snow due to warm conditions created numerous media headlines and practical problems for the alpine competitions. A statistical model was developed on the premise that February and March temperatures in the Vancouver area could be predicted using an ENSO signal with considerable lead time. This model successfully predicted the warmer-than-normal, lower-snowfall conditions for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics and Paralympics.

Extinction of an introduced warm-climate alien species, Xenopus laevis, by extreme weather events.

PubMed

Tinsley, Richard C; Stott, Lucy C; Viney, Mark E; Mable, Barbara K; Tinsley, Matthew C

Invasive, non-native species represent a major threat to biodiversity worldwide. The African amphibian Xenopus laevis is widely regarded as an invasive species and a threat to local faunas. Populations originating at the Western Cape, South Africa, have been introduced on four continents, mostly in areas with a similar Mediterranean climate. Some introduced populations are also established in cooler environments where persistence for many decades suggests a capacity for long-term adaptation. In these cases, recent climate warming might enhance invasion ability, favouring range expansion, population growth and negative effects on native faunas. In the cool temperate UK, populations have been established for about 50 years in Wales and for an unknown period, probably >20 years, in England (Lincolnshire). Our field studies over 30 and 10 years, respectively, show that in favourable conditions there may be good recruitment, fast individual growth rates and large body size; maximum longevity exceeds 23 years. Nevertheless, areas of distribution remained limited, with numbers <500 in each population. In 2010, only a single individual was captured at each locality and further searching failed to record any others in repeated sampling up to 2014. We conclude that both populations are now extinct. The winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 experienced extreme cold and drought (December 2010 was the coldest in 120 years and the third driest in 100 years). The extinction of X. laevis in these areas indicates that even relatively long-established alien species remain vulnerable to rare extreme weather conditions.

[CO2-exchange in tundra ecosystems of Vaygach Island during the unusually warm and dry vegetation season].

PubMed

Zamolodchikov, D G

2015-01-01

In summer of 2013, field studies of CO2-exchange in tundra ecosystems of Vaygach Island have been conducted using the chamber method. The models are developed that establish relationships between CO2 fluxes and key ecological factors such as temperature, photosynthetic active radiation, leaf mass of vascular plants, and depth of thawing. According to the model estimates, in 2013 vegetation season tundra ecosystems of Vaygach Island have been appearing to be a CO2 source to the atmosphere (31.9 ± 17.1 g C m(-2) season(-1)) with gross primary production equal to 136.6 ± 18.9 g C m(-2) season(-1) and ecosystem respiration of 168.5 ± ± 18.4 g C m(-2) season(-1). Emission of CO2 from the soil surface (soil respiration) has been equal, on the average, to 67.3% of the ecosystem respiration. The reason behind carbon losses by tundra ecosystems seems to be unusually warm and dry weather conditions in 2013 summer. The air temperature during summer months has been twice as high as the climatic norm for 1961-1990. Last decades, researches in the circumpolar Arctic revealed a growing trend to the carbon sink from the atmosphere to tundra ecosystems. This trend can be interrupted by unusually warm weather situations becoming more frequent and of larger scale.

Effects of climate on chemical weathering in watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, A.F.; Blum, A.E.

1995-01-01

Climatic effects on chemical weathering are evaluated by correlating variations in solute concentrations and fluxes with temperature, precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration (ET) for a worldwide distribution of sixty-eight watersheds underlain by granitoid rock types. Stream solute concentrations are strongly correlated with proportional ET loss, and evaporative concentration makes stream solute concentrations an inapprorpiate surrogate for chemical weathering. Chemical fluxes are unaffected by ET, and SiO2 and Na weathering fluxes exhibit systematic increases with precipitation, runoff, and temperature. However, warm and wet watersheds produce anomalously rapid weathering rates. A proposed model that provides an improved prediction of weathering rates over climatic extremes is the product of linear precipitation and Arrhenius temperature functions. The resulting apparent activation energies based on SiO2 and Na fluxes are 59.4 and 62.5 kJ.mol-1, respectively. The coupling between temperature and precipitation emphasizes the importance of tropical regions in global silicate weathering fluxes, and suggests it is not representative to use continental averages for temperature and precipitation in the weathering rate functions of global carbon cycling and climatic change models. Fluxes of K, Ca, and Mg exhibit no climatic correlation, implying that other processes, such as ion exchange, nutrient cycling, and variations in lithology, obscure any climatic signal. -from Authors

Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years.

PubMed

Zhang, Qinghong; Ni, Xiang; Zhang, Fuqing

2017-02-17

Understanding the trend of localized severe weather under the changing climate is of great significance but remains challenging which is at least partially due to the lack of persistent and homogeneous severe weather observations at climate scales while the detailed physical processes of severe weather cannot be resolved in global climate models. Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.

Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years

PubMed Central

Zhang, Qinghong; Ni, Xiang; Zhang, Fuqing

2017-01-01

Understanding the trend of localized severe weather under the changing climate is of great significance but remains challenging which is at least partially due to the lack of persistent and homogeneous severe weather observations at climate scales while the detailed physical processes of severe weather cannot be resolved in global climate models. Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China. PMID:28211465

Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qinghong; Ni, Xiang; Zhang, Fuqing

2017-04-01

Understanding the trend of localized severe weather under the changing climate is of great significance but remains challenging which is at least partially due to the lack of persistent and homogeneous severe weather observations at climate scales while the detailed physical processes of severe weather cannot be resolved in global climate models. Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.

Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qinghong; Ni, Xiang; Zhang, Fuqing

2017-02-01

Understanding the trend of localized severe weather under the changing climate is of great significance but remains challenging which is at least partially due to the lack of persistent and homogeneous severe weather observations at climate scales while the detailed physical processes of severe weather cannot be resolved in global climate models. Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.

Verification of Space Weather Forecasts Issued by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharpe, M. A.; Murray, S. A.

2017-10-01

The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre was founded in 2014 and part of its remit is a daily Space Weather Technical Forecast to help the UK build resilience to space weather impacts; guidance includes 4 day geomagnetic storm forecasts (GMSF) and X-ray flare forecasts (XRFF). It is crucial for forecasters, users, modelers, and stakeholders to understand the strengths and weaknesses of these forecasts; therefore, it is important to verify against the most reliable truth data source available. The present study contains verification results for XRFFs using Geo-Orbiting Earth Satellite 15 satellite data and GMSF using planetary K-index (Kp) values from the GFZ Helmholtz Centre. To assess the value of the verification results, it is helpful to compare them against a reference forecast and the frequency of occurrence during a rolling prediction period is used for this purpose. An analysis of the rolling 12 month performance over a 19 month period suggests that both the XRFF and GMSF struggle to provide a better prediction than the reference. However, a relative operating characteristic and reliability analysis of the full 19 month period reveals that although the GMSF and XRFF possess discriminatory skill, events tend to be overforecast.

One-month validation of the Space Weather Modeling Framework geospace model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haiducek, J. D.; Welling, D. T.; Ganushkina, N. Y.; Morley, S.; Ozturk, D. S.

2017-12-01

The Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) geospace model consists of a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation coupled to an inner magnetosphere model and an ionosphere model. This provides a predictive capability for magnetopsheric dynamics, including ground-based and space-based magnetic fields, geomagnetic indices, currents and densities throughout the magnetosphere, cross-polar cap potential, and magnetopause and bow shock locations. The only inputs are solar wind parameters and F10.7 radio flux. We have conducted a rigorous validation effort consisting of a continuous simulation covering the month of January, 2005 using three different model configurations. This provides a relatively large dataset for assessment of the model's predictive capabilities. We find that the model does an excellent job of predicting the Sym-H index, and performs well at predicting Kp and CPCP during active times. Dayside magnetopause and bow shock positions are also well predicted. The model tends to over-predict Kp and CPCP during quiet times and under-predicts the magnitude of AL during disturbances. The model under-predicts the magnitude of night-side geosynchronous Bz, and over-predicts the radial distance to the flank magnetopause and bow shock. This suggests that the model over-predicts stretching of the magnetotail and the overall size of the magnetotail. With the exception of the AL index and the nightside geosynchronous magnetic field, we find the results to be insensitive to grid resolution.

On the relationship between atmospheric rivers, weather types and floods in Galicia (NW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eiras-Barca, Jorge; Lorenzo, Nieves; Taboada, Juan; Robles, Alba; Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo

2018-06-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) - long and narrow structures of anomalously high water vapor flux located in the warm sector of extratropical cyclones - have been shown to be closely related to extreme precipitation and flooding. In this paper we analyze the connection between ARs and flooding in the northwestern Spanish region of Galicia under a variety of synoptic conditions represented by the so-called weather types, a classification of daily sea-level pressure patterns obtained by means of a simple scheme that adopts the subjective procedure of Lamb. Flood events are identified from official reports conducted by the Spanish emergency management agency (Protección Civil) from 1979 to 2010. Our results suggest that, although most flood events in Galicia do not coincide with the presence of an overhead AR, ARs are present in the majority of severe cases, particularly in coastal areas. Flood events associated with ARs are connected to cyclonic weather types with westerly and southwesterly flows, which occur mostly in winter months. The link between ARs and severe flooding is not very apparent in inland areas or during summer months, in which case heavy precipitation is usually not frontal in nature but rather convective. Nevertheless, our results show that, in general, the amount of precipitation in flood events in Galicia more than doubles when an AR is present.

Explaining the road accident risk: weather effects.

PubMed

Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Debbarh, Mohammed; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

2013-11-01

This research aims to highlight the link between weather conditions and road accident risk at an aggregate level and on a monthly basis, in order to improve road safety monitoring at a national level. It is based on some case studies carried out in Work Package 7 on "Data analysis and synthesis" of the EU-FP6 project "SafetyNet-Building the European Road Safety Observatory", which illustrate the use of weather variables for analysing changes in the number of road injury accidents. Time series analysis models with explanatory variables that measure the weather quantitatively were used and applied to aggregate datasets of injury accidents for France, the Netherlands and the Athens region, over periods of more than 20 years. The main results reveal significant correlations on a monthly basis between weather variables and the aggregate number of injury accidents, but the magnitude and even the sign of these correlations vary according to the type of road (motorways, rural roads or urban roads). Moreover, in the case of the interurban network in France, it appears that the rainfall effect is mainly direct on motorways--exposure being unchanged, and partly indirect on main roads--as a result of changes in exposure. Additional results obtained on a daily basis for the Athens region indicate that capturing the within-the-month variability of the weather variables and including it in a monthly model highlights the effects of extreme weather. Such findings are consistent with previous results obtained for France using a similar approach, with the exception of the negative correlation between precipitation and the number of injury accidents found for the Athens region, which is further investigated. The outlook for the approach and its added value are discussed in the conclusion. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The Early Years: About the Weather

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ashbrook, Peggy

2015-01-01

Observing and documenting elements of weather teach children about using tools and their senses to learn about the environment. This column discusses resources and science topics related to students in grades preK to 2. This month's issue describes an activity where students indirectly document local weather by counting outdoor clothing types worn…

Using Music to Communicate Weather and Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.; Aplin, K. L.; Brown, S.

2017-12-01

Depictions of weather and other atmospheric phenomena are common throughout the arts. Unlike in the visual arts, however, there has been little study of meteorological inspiration in music. This presentation will discuss the frequencies with which different weather types have been depicted in music over time, covering the period from the seventeenth century to the present day. Beginning with classical orchestral music, we find that composers were generally influenced by their own country's climate in the type of weather they chose to represent. Depictions of weather vary from explicit mimicry using traditional and specialized orchestral instruments, through to subtle suggestions. Pieces depicting stormy weather tend to be in minor keys, whereas pieces depicting fair weather tend to be in major keys. As befits the national stereotype, British composers seem disproportionately keen to depict the UK's variable weather patterns and stormy coastline. Moving onto modern popular music, we have identified and analyzed over 750 songs referring to different weather types. We find that lyrical references to bad weather peaked in songs written during the stormy 1950s and 60s, when there were many hurricanes, before declining in the relatively calm 1970s and 80s. This finding again suggests a causal link between song-writers' meteorological environments and compositional outputs. Composers and song-writers have a unique ability to emotionally connect their listeners to the environment. This ability could be exploited to communicate environmental science to a broader audience. Our work provides a catalogue of cultural responses to weather before (and during the early stages of) climate change. The effects of global warming may influence musical expression in future, in which case our work will provide a baseline for comparison.

Using Music to Communicate Weather and Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.; Aplin, K. L.; Brown, S.; Jenkins, K.; Mander, S.; Walsh, C.

2016-12-01

Depictions of weather and other atmospheric phenomena are common throughout the arts. Unlike in the visual arts, however, there has been little study of meteorological inspiration in music. This presentation will discuss the frequencies with which different weather types have been depicted in music over time, covering the period from the seventeenth century to the present day. Beginning with classical orchestral music, we find that composers were generally influenced by their own country's climate in the type of weather they chose to represent. Depictions of weather vary from explicit mimicry using traditional and specialized orchestral instruments, through to subtle suggestions. Pieces depicting stormy weather tend to be in minor keys, whereas pieces depicting fair weather tend to be in major keys. As befits the national stereotype, British composers seem disproportionately keen to depict the UK's variable weather patterns and stormy coastline. Moving onto modern popular music, we have identified and analyzed over 750 songs referring to different weather types. We find that lyrical references to bad weather peaked in songs written during the stormy 1950s and 60s, when there were many hurricanes, before declining in the relatively calm 1970s and 80s. This finding again suggests a causal link between song-writers' meteorological environments and compositional outputs. Composers and song-writers have a unique ability to emotionally connect their listeners to the environment. This ability could be exploited to communicate environmental science to a broader audience. Our work provides a catalogue of cultural responses to weather before (and during the early stages of) climate change. The effects of global warming may influence musical expression in future, in which case our work will provide a baseline for comparison.

Seafloor weathering buffering climate: numerical experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahat, N. X.; Archer, D. E.; Abbot, D. S.

2013-12-01

Continental silicate weathering is widely held to consume atmospheric CO2 at a rate controlled in part by temperature, resulting in a climate-weathering feedback [Walker et al., 1981]. It has been suggested that weathering of oceanic crust of warm mid-ocean ridge flanks also has a CO2 uptake rate that is controlled by climate [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001; Brady and Gislason, 1997]. Although this effect might not be significant on present-day Earth [Caldeira, 1995], seafloor weathering may be more pronounced during snowball states [Le Hir et al., 2008], during the Archean when seafloor spreading rates were faster [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001], and on waterworld planets [Abbot et al., 2012]. Previous studies of seafloor weathering have made significant contributions using qualitative, generally one-box, models, and the logical next step is to extend this work using a spatially resolved model. For example, experiments demonstrate that seafloor weathering reactions are temperature dependent, but it is not clear whether the deep ocean temperature affects the temperature at which the reactions occur, or if instead this temperature is set only by geothermal processes. Our goal is to develop a 2-D numerical model that can simulate hydrothermal circulation and resulting alteration of oceanic basalts, and can therefore address such questions. A model of diffusive and convective heat transfer in fluid-saturated porous media simulates hydrothermal circulation through porous oceanic basalt. Unsteady natural convection is solved for using a Darcy model of porous media flow that has been extensively benchmarked. Background hydrothermal circulation is coupled to mineral reaction kinetics of basaltic alteration and hydrothermal mineral precipitation. In order to quantify seafloor weathering as a climate-weathering feedback process, this model focuses on hydrothermal reactions that influence carbon uptake as well as ocean alkalinity: silicate rock dissolution, calcium and magnesium leaching

[Climate change and hygienic assessment of weather conditions in Omsk and the Omsk Region].

PubMed

Gudinova, Zh V; Akimova, I S; Klochikhina, A V

2010-01-01

The paper deals with trends in climate change in the Omsk Region: the increases in average annual air temperatures and rainfall, which are attended by the higher number of abnormal weather events, as shown by the data of the Omsk Regional Board, Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring. There is information on weather severity in 2008: there was mild weather in spring and severe weather in winter, in January in particular. A survey of physicians has revealed that medical workers are concerned about climate problems and global warming and ascertained weather events mostly affecting the population's health. People worry most frequently about a drastic temperature drop or rise (as high as 71%), atmospheric pressure change (53%), and "when it is too hot in summer (47%).

Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katz, Richard W.; Murphy, Allan H.

1997-06-01

Weather and climate extremes can significantly impact the economics of a region. This book examines how weather and climate forecasts can be used to mitigate the impact of the weather on the economy. Interdisciplinary in scope, it explores the meteorological, economic, psychological, and statistical aspects of weather prediction. Chapters by area specialists provide a comprehensive view of this timely topic. They encompass forecasts over a wide range of temporal scales, from weather over the next few hours to the climate months or seasons ahead, and address the impact of these forecasts on human behavior. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts seeks to determine the economic benefits of existing weather forecasting systems and the incremental benefits of improving these systems, and will be an interesting and essential text for economists, statisticians, and meteorologists.

Climate Prediction Center - monthly Outlook

Science.gov Websites

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Site Map News Outlooks monthly Climate Outlooks Banner OFFICIAL Forecasts June 2018 [UPDATED MONTHLY FORECASTS SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE] [EXPERIMENTAL TWO-CLASS SEASONAL FORECASTS] Text-Format Discussions Monthly Long Lead 30

Integrating K-means Clustering with Kernel Density Estimation for the Development of a Conditional Weather Generation Downscaling Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y.; Ho, C.; Chang, L.

2011-12-01

In previous decades, the climate change caused by global warming increases the occurrence frequency of extreme hydrological events. Water supply shortages caused by extreme events create great challenges for water resource management. To evaluate future climate variations, general circulation models (GCMs) are the most wildly known tools which shows possible weather conditions under pre-defined CO2 emission scenarios announced by IPCC. Because the study area of GCMs is the entire earth, the grid sizes of GCMs are much larger than the basin scale. To overcome the gap, a statistic downscaling technique can transform the regional scale weather factors into basin scale precipitations. The statistic downscaling technique can be divided into three categories include transfer function, weather generator and weather type. The first two categories describe the relationships between the weather factors and precipitations respectively based on deterministic algorithms, such as linear or nonlinear regression and ANN, and stochastic approaches, such as Markov chain theory and statistical distributions. In the weather type, the method has ability to cluster weather factors, which are high dimensional and continuous variables, into weather types, which are limited number of discrete states. In this study, the proposed downscaling model integrates the weather type, using the K-means clustering algorithm, and the weather generator, using the kernel density estimation. The study area is Shihmen basin in northern of Taiwan. In this study, the research process contains two steps, a calibration step and a synthesis step. Three sub-steps were used in the calibration step. First, weather factors, such as pressures, humidities and wind speeds, obtained from NCEP and the precipitations observed from rainfall stations were collected for downscaling. Second, the K-means clustering grouped the weather factors into four weather types. Third, the Markov chain transition matrixes and the

Fatal pneumonia epizootic in musk ox (Ovibos moschatus) in a period of extraordinary weather conditions.

PubMed

Ytrehus, Bjørnar; Bretten, Tord; Bergsjø, Bjarne; Isaksen, Ketil

2008-06-01

The musk ox is adapted to extreme cold and regarded as vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Population decline is proposed to occur due to changes in forage availability, insect harassment, parasite load, and habitat availability, while the possible role of infectious diseases has not been emphasized. The goal of the present article is to describe an outbreak of fatal pasteurellosis that occurred in the introduced musk ox population of Dovrefjell, Norway in 2006, causing the death of a large proportion of the animals. The epizootic coincided with extraordinary warm and humid weather, conditions that often are associated with outbreaks of pasteurellosis. The description is based on long series of data from the surveillance of the musk ox population, weather data from a closely located meteorological station, and pathoanatomical investigation of the diseased animals. It is concluded that the weather conditions likely were the decisive factors for the outbreak. It is suggested that such epizootics may occur increasingly among cold-adapted animals if global warming results in increased occurrence of heat waves and associated extreme weather events, thereby causing population declines and possibly extinctions.

Global Warming - Myth or Reality?, The Erring Ways of Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leroux, Marcel

In the global-warming debate, definitive answers to questions about ultimate causes and effects remain elusive. In Global Warming: Myth or Reality? Marcel Leroux seeks to separate fact from fiction in this critical debate from a climatological perspective. Beginning with a review of the dire hypotheses for climate trends, the author describes the history of the 1998 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and many subsequent conferences. He discusses the main conclusions of the three IPCC reports and the predicted impact on global temperatures, rainfall, weather and climate, while highlighting the mounting confusion and sensationalism of reports in the media.

A conceptual weather-type classification procedure for the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, area

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, Gregory J.

1990-01-01

A simple method of weather-type classification, based on a conceptual model of pressure systems that pass through the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, area, has been developed. The only inputs required for the procedure are daily mean wind direction and cloud cover, which are used to index the relative position of pressure systems and fronts to Philadelphia.Daily mean wind-direction and cloud-cover data recorded at Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, from January 1954 through August 1988 were used to categorize daily weather conditions. The conceptual weather types reflect changes in daily air and dew-point temperatures, and changes in monthly mean temperature and monthly and annual precipitation. The weather-type classification produced by using the conceptual model was similar to a classification produced by using a multivariate statistical classification procedure. Even though the conceptual weather types are derived from a small amount of data, they appear to account for the variability of daily weather patterns sufficiently to describe distinct weather conditions for use in environmental analyses of weather-sensitive processes.

Non-linear responses of glaciated prairie wetlands to climate warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, W. Carter; Werner, Brett; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

2016-01-01

The response of ecosystems to climate warming is likely to include threshold events when small changes in key environmental drivers produce large changes in an ecosystem. Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are especially sensitive to climate variability, yet the possibility that functional changes may occur more rapidly with warming than expected has not been examined or modeled. The productivity and biodiversity of these wetlands are strongly controlled by the speed and completeness of a vegetation cover cycle driven by the wet and dry extremes of climate. Two thresholds involving duration and depth of standing water must be exceeded every few decades or so to complete the cycle and to produce highly functional wetlands. Model experiments at 19 weather stations employing incremental warming scenarios determined that wetland function across most of the PPR would be diminished beyond a climate warming of about 1.5–2.0 °C, a critical temperature threshold range identified in other climate change studies.

Impact of global warming on viral diseases: what is the evidence?

PubMed

Zell, Roland; Krumbholz, Andi; Wutzler, Peter

2008-12-01

Global warming is believed to induce a gradual climate change. Hence, it was predicted that tropical insects might expand their habitats thereby transmitting pathogens to humans. Although this concept is a conclusive presumption, clear evidence is still lacking--at least for viral diseases. Epidemiological data indicate that seasonality of many diseases is further influenced by strong single weather events, interannual climate phenomena, and anthropogenic factors. So far, emergence of new diseases was unlinked to global warming. Re-emergence and dispersion of diseases was correlated with translocation of pathogen-infected vectors or hosts. Coupled ocean/atmosphere circulations and 'global change' that also includes shifting of demographic, social, and economical conditions are important drivers of viral disease variability whereas global warming at best contributes.

El Niño suppresses Antarctic warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertler, Nancy A. N.; Barrett, Peter J.; Mayewski, Paul A.; Fogt, Ryan L.; Kreutz, Karl J.; Shulmeister, James

2004-08-01

Here we present new isotope records derived from snow samples from the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica and re-analysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-40) to explain the connection between the warming of the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean [Jacka and Budd, 1998; Jacobs et al., 2002] and the current cooling of the terrestrial Ross Sea region [Doran et al., 2002a]. Our analysis confirms previous findings that the warming is linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) [Kwok and Comiso, 2002a, 2002b; Carleton, 2003; Ribera and Mann, 2003; Turner, 2004], and provides new evidence that the terrestrial cooling is caused by a simultaneous ENSO driven change in atmospheric circulation, sourced in the Amundsen Sea and West Antarctica.

National Space Weather Program Advances on Several Fronts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunzelman, Mark; Babcock, Michael

2008-10-01

The National Space Weather Program (NSWP; http://www.nswp.gov) is a U.S. federal government interagency initiative through the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology that was created to speed the improvement of space weather services for the nation. The Committee for Space Weather (CSW) under the NSWP has continued to advance the program on a number of fronts over the past 12 months.

Weather and emotional state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spasova, Z.

2010-09-01

Introduction Given the proven effects of weather on the human organism, an attempt to examine its effects on a psychic and emotional level has been made. Emotions affect the bio-tonus, working ability and concentration, hence their significance in various domains of economic life, such as health care, education, transportation, tourism, etc. Data and methods The research has been made in Sofia City within a period of 8 months, using 5 psychological methods (Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), Test for Self-assessment of the emotional state (developed by Wessman and Ricks), Test for evaluation of moods and Test "Self-confidence - Activity - Mood" (developed by the specialists from the Military Academy in Saint Petersburg). The Fiodorov-Chubukov's complex-climatic method was used to characterize meteorological conditions because of the purpose to include in the analysis a maximal number of meteorological elements. 16 weather types are defined in dependence of the meteorological elements values according to this method. Abrupt weather changes from one day to another, defined by the same method, were considered as well. Results and discussions The results obtained by t-test show that the different categories of weather lead to changes in the emotional status, which indicates a character either positive or negative for the organism. The abrupt weather changes, according to expectations, have negative effect on human emotions but only when a transition to the cloudy weather or weather type, classified as "unfavourable" has been realized. The relationship between weather and human emotions is rather complicated since it depends on individual characteristics of people. One of these individual psychological characteristics, marked by the dimension "neuroticism", has a strong effect on emotional reactions in different weather conditions. Emotionally stable individuals are more "protected" to the weather influence on their emotions

Assessing Climate Change Impacts for Military Installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, C.

2013-05-01

Arid and semi-arid regions are experiencing some of the most adverse impacts of climate change with increased heat waves, droughts, and extreme weather. These events will likely exacerbate socioeconomic and political instabilities in regions where the United States has vital strategic interests and ongoing military operations. The Southwest U.S. is strategically important in that it houses some of the most spatially expansive and important military installations in the country. The majority of severe weather events in the Southwest occur in association with the North American monsoon system (NAMS), and current observational record has shown a 'wet gets wetter and dry gets drier' global monsoon precipitation trend. We seek to evaluate the warm season extreme weather projection in the Southwest U.S., and how the extremes can affect Department of Defense (DoD) military facilities in that region. A baseline methodology is being developed to select extreme warm season weather events based on historical sounding data and moisture surge observations from Gulf of California. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)-type high resolution simulations will be performed for the extreme events identified from Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations initiated from IPCC GCM and NCAR Reanalysis data in both climate control and climate change periods. The magnitude in extreme event changes will be analyzed, and the synoptic forcing patterns of the future severe thunderstorms will provide a guide line to assess if the military installations in the Southwest will become more or less susceptible to severe weather in the future.

The seasonal timing of warming that controls onset of the growing season.

PubMed

Clark, James S; Melillo, Jerry; Mohan, Jacqueline; Salk, Carl

2014-04-01

Forecasting how global warming will affect onset of the growing season is essential for predicting terrestrial productivity, but suffers from conflicting evidence. We show that accurate estimates require ways to connect discrete observations of changing tree status (e.g., pre- vs. post budbreak) with continuous responses to fluctuating temperatures. By coherently synthesizing discrete observations with continuous responses to temperature variation, we accurately quantify how increasing temperature variation accelerates onset of growth. Application to warming experiments at two latitudes demonstrates that maximum responses to warming are concentrated in late winter, weeks ahead of the main budbreak period. Given that warming will not occur uniformly over the year, knowledge of when temperature variation has the most impact can guide prediction. Responses are large and heterogeneous, yet predictable. The approach has immediate application to forecasting effects of warming on growing season length, requiring only information that is readily available from weather stations and generated in climate models. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Humid Heat Waves at different warming levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, S.; Sillmann, J.; Sterl, A.

2017-12-01

The co-occurrence of consecutive hot and humid days during a heat wave can strongly affect human health. Here, we quantify humid heat wave hazard in the recent past and at different levels of global warming.We find that the magnitude and apparent temperature peak of heat waves, such as the ones observed in Chicago in 1995 and China in 2003, have been strongly amplified by humidity. Climate model projections suggest that the percentage of area where heat wave magnitude and peak are amplified by humidity increases with increasing warming levels. Considering the effect of humidity at 1.5o and 2o global warming, highly populated regions, such as the Eastern US and China, could experience heat waves with magnitude greater than the one in Russia in 2010 (the most severe of the present era).The apparent temperature peak during such humid-heat waves can be greater than 55o. According to the US Weather Service, at this temperature humans are very likely to suffer from heat strokes. Humid-heat waves with these conditions were never exceeded in the present climate, but are expected to occur every other year at 4o global warming. This calls for respective adaptation measures in some key regions of the world along with international climate change mitigation efforts.

Long-term snow and weather observations at Weissfluhjoch and its relation to other high-altitude observatories in the Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marty, Christoph; Meister, Roland

2012-12-01

Snow and weather observations at Weissfluhjoch were initiated in 1936, when a research team set a snow stake and started digging snow pits on a plateau located at 2,540 m asl above Davos, Switzerland. This was the beginning of what is now the longest series of daily snow depth, new snow height and bi-monthly snow water equivalent measurements from a high-altitude research station. Our investigations reveal that the snow depth at Weissfluhjoch with regard to the evolution and inter-annual variability represents a good proxy for the entire Swiss Alps. In order to set the snow and weather observations from Weissfluhjoch in a broader context, this paper also shows some comparisons with measurements from five other high-altitude observatories in the European Alps. The results show a surprisingly uniform warming of 0.8°C during the last three decades at the six investigated mountain stations. The long-term snow measurements reveal no change in mid-winter, but decreasing trends (especially since the 1980s) for the solid precipitation ratio, snow fall, snow water equivalent and snow depth during the melt season due to a strong temperature increase of 2.5°C in the spring and summer months of the last three decades.

The potential effect of global warming on the geographic and seasonal distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in Southwest Asia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cross, E.R.; Hyams, K.C.

1996-07-01

The distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in Southwest Asia is thought to be highly dependent on temperature and relative humidity. A discriminant analysis model based on weather data and reported vector surveys was developed to predict the seasonal and geographic distribution of P. papatasi in this region. To simulate global warming, temperature values for 115 weather stations were increased by 1 {degrees}C, 3{degrees}C, and 5{degrees}C, and the outcome variable coded as unknown in the model. Probability of occurrence values were then predicted for each location with a weather station. Stations with positive probability of occurrence values for May, June, July, andmore » August were considered locations where two or more life cycles of P. papatasi could occur and which could support endemic transmission of leishmaniasis and sandfly fever. Among 115 weather stations, 71 (62%) would be considered endemic with current temperature conditions; 14 (12%) additional station could become endemic with an increase of 1 {degrees}C; 17 (15%) more than a 3{degrees}C increase; and 12 (10%) more (all but one station) with a t{degrees}C increase. In addition to increased geographic distribution, seasonality of disease transmission could be extended throughout 12 months of the year in 7 (6%) locations with at least a 3{degrees}C rise in temperature and in 29 (25%) locations with a 5{degrees}C rise. 15 refs., 4 figs.« less

Deposition and weathering of Asian dust in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, G.

2013-12-01

Paleolithic stone artifacts in Korea typically occur in brown clay-silt (BCS) sequences. The origin and depositional environment of these sequences are important for reconstructing the paleoenvironment as well as for establishing chronologies of artifact-bearing stratigraphic units. We investigated four BCS-bearing sections in foothills and river and marine terraces in Korea by applying quantitative mineralogical, geochemical, microtextural, and K-Ar isotopic methods. In all four sections, the lower units are colluvial and fluvial deposits strongly influenced by diverse local lithology, whereas the upper units are characterized by BCS units. Mineralogical/geochemical compositions, grain sizes, and colors converge into common properties in the upper BCS units in all sections. These common properties are consistent with the eastward trends of increasing weathering degree and grain size fining throughout the loess-paleosol sections of the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP). K-Ar detrital ages of the sections also converge upward into a narrow range similar to the age ranges of the loess and paleosols in the CLP. The top BCS unit in the Jeongok section, the thickest section, is underlain by an additionally weathered BCS unit, with strong red chroma indicating a change from warm to cold climate. We did not observe any clear evidence of climatic changes in other thinner sections, which may be due to a superposition of cold-stage accumulation and warm-stage deep weathering. The common properties of the BCSs in Korean sections and their relationship to the CLP loess and paleosols indicate widespread deposition of Asian dust and subsequent weathering in the late Quaternary, forming BCS sequences. In this respect, the BCS sequences investigated here are considered to be the additionally weathered equivalents of the CLP loess-paleosol sequences, having been exposed to the high annual precipitation of the Korean Peninsula. Given the wide distribution of BCS sequences at Paleolithic

Suppressed midlatitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qigang; Cheng, Luyao; Chan, Duo; Yao, Yonghong; Hu, Haibo; Yao, Ying

2016-03-01

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heat waves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH midlatitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation(AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH midlatitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

Global warming and the possible globalization of vector-borne diseases: a call for increased awareness and action.

PubMed

Balogun, Emmanuel O; Nok, Andrew J; Kita, Kiyoshi

2016-01-01

Human activities such as burning of fossil fuels play a role in upsetting a previously more balanced and harmonious ecosystem. Climate change-a significant variation in the usual pattern of Earth's average weather conditions is a product of this ecosystem imbalance, and the rise in the Earth's average temperature (global warming) is a prominent evidence. There is a correlation between global warming and the ease of transmission of infectious diseases. Therefore, with global health in focus, we herein opine a stepping-up of research activities regarding global warming and infectious diseases globally.

Exploration of warm-up period in conceptual hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kue Bum; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Han, Dawei

2018-01-01

One of the important issues in hydrological modelling is to specify the initial conditions of the catchment since it has a major impact on the response of the model. Although this issue should be a high priority among modelers, it has remained unaddressed by the community. The typical suggested warm-up period for the hydrological models has ranged from one to several years, which may lead to an underuse of data. The model warm-up is an adjustment process for the model to reach an 'optimal' state, where internal stores (e.g., soil moisture) move from the estimated initial condition to an 'optimal' state. This study explores the warm-up period of two conceptual hydrological models, HYMOD and IHACRES, in a southwestern England catchment. A series of hydrologic simulations were performed for different initial soil moisture conditions and different rainfall amounts to evaluate the sensitivity of the warm-up period. Evaluation of the results indicates that both initial wetness and rainfall amount affect the time required for model warm up, although it depends on the structure of the hydrological model. Approximately one and a half months are required for the model to warm up in HYMOD for our study catchment and climatic conditions. In addition, it requires less time to warm up under wetter initial conditions (i.e., saturated initial conditions). On the other hand, approximately six months is required for warm-up in IHACRES, and the wet or dry initial conditions have little effect on the warm-up period. Instead, the initial values that are close to the optimal value result in less warm-up time. These findings have implications for hydrologic model development, specifically in determining soil moisture initial conditions and warm-up periods to make full use of the available data, which is very important for catchments with short hydrological records.

Temporal Associations between Weather and Headache: Analysis by Empirical Mode Decomposition

PubMed Central

Yang, Albert C.; Fuh, Jong-Ling; Huang, Norden E.; Shia, Ben-Chang; Peng, Chung-Kang; Wang, Shuu-Jiun

2011-01-01

Background Patients frequently report that weather changes trigger headache or worsen existing headache symptoms. Recently, the method of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) has been used to delineate temporal relationships in certain diseases, and we applied this technique to identify intrinsic weather components associated with headache incidence data derived from a large-scale epidemiological survey of headache in the Greater Taipei area. Methodology/Principal Findings The study sample consisted of 52 randomly selected headache patients. The weather time-series parameters were detrended by the EMD method into a set of embedded oscillatory components, i.e. intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). Multiple linear regression models with forward stepwise methods were used to analyze the temporal associations between weather and headaches. We found no associations between the raw time series of weather variables and headache incidence. For decomposed intrinsic weather IMFs, temperature, sunshine duration, humidity, pressure, and maximal wind speed were associated with headache incidence during the cold period, whereas only maximal wind speed was associated during the warm period. In analyses examining all significant weather variables, IMFs derived from temperature and sunshine duration data accounted for up to 33.3% of the variance in headache incidence during the cold period. The association of headache incidence and weather IMFs in the cold period coincided with the cold fronts. Conclusions/Significance Using EMD analysis, we found a significant association between headache and intrinsic weather components, which was not detected by direct comparisons of raw weather data. Contributing weather parameters may vary in different geographic regions and different seasons. PMID:21297940

Validation of the EGSIEM combined monthly GRACE gravity fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhao; van Dam, Tonie; Chen, Qiang; Weigelt, Matthias; Güntner, Andreas; Jäggi, Adrian; Meyer, Ulrich; Jean, Yoomin; Altamimi, Zuheir; Rebischung, Paul

2016-04-01

Observations indicate that global warming is affecting the water cycle. Here in Europe predictions are for more frequent high precipitation events, wetter winters, and longer and dryer summers. The consequences of these changes include the decreasing availability of fresh water resources in some regions as well as flooding and erosion of coastal and low-lying areas in other regions. These weather related effects impose heavy costs on society and the economy. We cannot stop the immediate effects global warming on the water cycle. But there may be measures that we can take to mitigate the costs to society. The Horizon2020 supported project, European Gravity Service for Improved Emergency Management (EGSIEM), will add value to EO observations of variations in the Earth's gravity field. In particular, the EGSIEM project will interpret the observations of gravity field changes in terms of changes in continental water storage. The project team will develop tools to alert the public water storage conditions could indicate the onset of regional flooding or drought. As part of the EGSIEM project, a combined GRACE gravity product is generated, using various monthly GRACE solutions from associated processing centers (ACs). Since each AC follows a set of common processing standards but applies its own independent analysis method, the quality, robustness, and reliability of the monthly combined gravity fields should be significantly improved as compared to any individual solution. In this study, we present detailed and updated comparisons of the combined EGSIEM GRACE gravity product with GPS position time series, hydrological models, and existing GRACE gravity fields. The GPS residuals are latest REPRO2 station position residuals, obtained by rigorously stacking the IGS Repro 2 , daily solutions, estimating, and then restoring the annual and semi-annual signals.

Severe Weather Tool using 1500 UTC Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Soundings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III

2013-01-01

People and property at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are at risk when severe weather occurs. Strong winds, hail and tornadoes can injure individuals and cause costly damage to structures if not properly protected. NASA's Launch Services Program and Ground Systems Development and Operations Program and other KSC programs use the daily and weekly severe weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to determine if they need to limit an activity such as working on gantries, or protect property such as a vehicle on a pad. The 45 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a warm season (May-September) severe weather tool for use in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) based on the late morning, 1500 UTC (1100 local time), CCAFS (XMR) sounding. The 45 WS frequently makes decisions to issue a severe weather watch and other severe weather warning support products to NASA and the 45th Space Wing in the late morning, after the 1500 UTC sounding. The results of this work indicate that certain stability indices based on the late morning XMR soundings can depict differences between days with reported severe weather and days with no reported severe weather. The AMU determined a frequency of reported severe weather for the stability indices and implemented an operational tool in MIDDS.

Weathering effects on fuel moisture sticks: corrections and recommendations.

Treesearch

Donald A. Haines; John S. Frost

1978-01-01

Describes response to weathering of 100-gram (1/2-inch) fuel moisture sticks over 6-month fire season in the Northeast. Presents a chart for correcting weathered-stick values and gives replacement recommendations for those sticks used in the National Fire Danger Rating System.

Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sigmond, M.; Scinocca, J. F.; Kharin, V. V.; Shepherd, T. G.

2013-02-01

Advances in seasonal forecasting have brought widespread socio-economic benefits. However, seasonal forecast skill in the extratropics is relatively modest, prompting the seasonal forecasting community to search for additional sources of predictability. For over a decade it has been suggested that knowledge of the state of the stratosphere can act as a source of enhanced seasonal predictability; long-lived circulation anomalies in the lower stratosphere that follow stratospheric sudden warmings are associated with circulation anomalies in the troposphere that can last up to two months. Here, we show by performing retrospective ensemble model forecasts that such enhanced predictability can be realized in a dynamical seasonal forecast system with a good representation of the stratosphere. When initialized at the onset date of stratospheric sudden warmings, the model forecasts faithfully reproduce the observed mean tropospheric conditions in the months following the stratospheric sudden warmings. Compared with an equivalent set of forecasts that are not initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings, we document enhanced forecast skill for atmospheric circulation patterns, surface temperatures over northern Russia and eastern Canada and North Atlantic precipitation. We suggest that seasonal forecast systems initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings are likely to yield significantly greater forecast skill in some regions.

Spatio-temporal atmospheric circulation variability around the Antarctic Peninsula based on hemispheric circulation modes and weather types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wachter, Paul; Beck, Christoph; Philipp, Andreas; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Höppner, Kathrin

2017-04-01

Large parts of the Polar Regions are affected by a warming trend associated with substantial changes in the cryosphere. In Antarctica this positive trend pattern is most dominant in the western part of the continent and on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). An important driving mechanism of temperature variability and trends in this region is the atmospheric circulation. Changes in atmospheric circulation modes and frequencies of circulation types have major impacts on temperature characteristics at a certain station or region. We present results of a statistical downscaling study focused on AP temperature variability showing both results of large-scale atmospheric circulation modes and regional weather type classifications derived from monthly and daily gridded reanalysis data sets. In order to investigate spatial trends and variabilities of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), we analyze spatio-temporally resolved SAM-pattern maps from 1979 to 2015. First results show dominant multi-annual to decadal pattern variabilities which can be directly linked to temperature variabilities at the Antarctic Peninsula. A sub-continental to regional view on the influence of atmospheric circulation on AP temperature variability is given by the analysis of weather type classifications (WTC). With this analysis we identify significant changes in the frequency of occurrence of highly temperature-relevant circulation patterns. The investigated characteristics of weather type frequencies can also be related to the identified changes of the SAM.

Increasing weather-related impacts on European population under climate and demographic change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forzieri, Giovanni; Cescatti, Alessandro; Batista e Silva, Filipe; Kovats, Sari R.; Feyen, Luc

2017-04-01

Over the last three decades the overwhelming majority of disasters have been caused by weather-related events. The observed rise in weather-related disaster losses has been largely attributed to increased exposure and to a lesser degree to global warming. Recent studies suggest an intensification in the climatology of multiple weather extremes in Europe over the coming decades in view of climate change, while urbanization continues. In view of these pressures, understanding and quantifying the potential impacts of extreme weather events on future societies is imperative in order to identify where and to what extent their livelihoods will be at risk in the future, and develop timely and effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies. Here we show a comprehensive assessment of single- and multi-hazard impacts on the European population until the year 2100. For this purpose, we developed a novel methodology that quantifies the human impacts as a multiplicative function of hazard, exposure and population vulnerability. We focus on seven of the most impacting weather-related hazards - including heat and cold waves, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal floods and windstorms - and evaluated their spatial and temporal variations in intensity and frequency under a business-as-usual climate scenario. Long-term demographic dynamics were modelled to assess exposure developments under a corresponding middle-of-the-road scenario. Vulnerability of humans to weather extremes was appraised based on more than 2300 records of weather-related disasters. The integration of these elements provides a range of plausible estimates of extreme weather-related risks for future European generations. Expected impacts on population are quantified in terms of fatalities and number of people exposed. We find a staggering rise in fatalities from extreme weather events, with the projected death toll by the end of the century amounting to more than 50 times the present number of people

Reduced North American terrestrial primary productivity linked to anomalous Arctic warming

DOE PAGES

Kim, Jin-Soo; Kug, Jong-Seong; Jeong, Su-Jong; ...

2017-07-10

Warming temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere have enhanced terrestrial productivity. Despite the warming trend, North America has experienced more frequent and more intense cold weather events during winters and springs. These events have been linked to anomalous Arctic warming since 1990, and may affect terrestrial processes. Here we analyse many observation data sets and numerical model simulations to evaluate links between Arctic temperatures and primary productivity in North America. We find that positive springtime temperature anomalies in the Arctic have led to negative anomalies in gross primary productivity over most of North America during the last three decades, which amountmore » to a net productivity decline of 0.31 PgC yr -1 across the continent. This decline is mainly explained by two factors: severe cold conditions in northern North America and lower precipitation in the South Central United States. In addition, United States crop-yield data reveal that during years experiencing anomalous warming in the Arctic, yields declined by approximately 1 to 4% on average, with individual states experiencing declines of up to 20%. We conclude that the strengthening of Arctic warming anomalies in the past decades has remotely reduced productivity over North America.« less

Reduced North American terrestrial primary productivity linked to anomalous Arctic warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Jin-Soo; Kug, Jong-Seong; Jeong, Su-Jong

Warming temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere have enhanced terrestrial productivity. Despite the warming trend, North America has experienced more frequent and more intense cold weather events during winters and springs. These events have been linked to anomalous Arctic warming since 1990, and may affect terrestrial processes. Here we analyse many observation data sets and numerical model simulations to evaluate links between Arctic temperatures and primary productivity in North America. We find that positive springtime temperature anomalies in the Arctic have led to negative anomalies in gross primary productivity over most of North America during the last three decades, which amountmore » to a net productivity decline of 0.31 PgC yr -1 across the continent. This decline is mainly explained by two factors: severe cold conditions in northern North America and lower precipitation in the South Central United States. In addition, United States crop-yield data reveal that during years experiencing anomalous warming in the Arctic, yields declined by approximately 1 to 4% on average, with individual states experiencing declines of up to 20%. We conclude that the strengthening of Arctic warming anomalies in the past decades has remotely reduced productivity over North America.« less

Historical Time Series of Extreme Convective Weather in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurila, T. K.; Mäkelä, A.; Rauhala, J.; Olsson, T.; Jylhä, K.

2016-12-01

Thunderstorms, lightning, tornadoes, downbursts, large hail and heavy precipitation are well-known for their impacts to human life. In the high latitudes as in Finland, these hazardous warm season convective weather events are focused in the summer season, roughly from May to September with peak in the midsummer. The position of Finland between the maritime Atlantic and the continental Asian climate zones makes possible large variability in weather in general which reflects also to the occurrence of severe weather; the hot, moist and extremely unstable air masses sometimes reach Finland and makes possible for the occurrence of extreme and devastating weather events. Compared to lower latitudes, the Finnish climate of severe convection is "moderate" and contains a large year-to-year variation; however, behind the modest annual average is hidden the climate of severe weather events that practically every year cause large economical losses and sometimes even losses of life. Because of the increased vulnerability of our modern society, these episodes have gained recently plenty of interest. During the decades, the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) has collected observations and damage descriptions of severe weather episodes in Finland; thunderstorm days (1887-present), annual number of lightning flashes (1960-present), tornados (1796-present), large hail (1930-present), heavy rainfall (1922-present). The research findings show e.g. that a severe weather event may occur practically anywhere in the country, although in general the probability of occurrence is smaller in the Northern Finland. This study, funded by the Finnish Research Programme on Nuclear Power Plant Safety (SAFIR), combines the individual Finnish severe weather time series' and examines their trends, cross-correlation and correlations with other atmospheric parameters. Furthermore, a numerical weather model (HARMONIE) simulation is performed for a historical severe weather case for analyzing how

A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns.

PubMed

Richardson, Douglas; Fowler, Hayley J; Kilsby, Christopher G; Neal, Robert

2018-02-01

Weather-pattern, or weather-type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad-scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. This study analyses the aspects of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a new set of objectively defined weather patterns. These new patterns are currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to Lamb weather types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and drought severity index (DSI) series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather-pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for SPI wet and dry periods and for the 5% most intense DSI-based drought months. The new weather-pattern definitions and daily occurrences largely agree with their respective LWTs, allowing comparison between the two classifications. There is also broad agreement between weather pattern and LWT changes in frequencies. The new data set is shown to be adequate for precipitation-based analyses in the UK, although a smaller set of clustered weather patterns is not. Furthermore, intra-pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in this context. Six of the new weather patterns are associated with drought over the entire UK, with several other patterns linked to regional drought. It is demonstrated that the new data set of weather patterns offers a new opportunity for classification-based analyses in the UK.

Weather Safety - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Safety Weather Safety This page weather safety. StormReady NOAA Weather Radio Emergency Managers Information Network U.S. Hazard Assmt

Suppressed mid-latitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Q.

2016-12-01

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heatwaves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature (SST) warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH mid-latitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH mid-latitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

Science 101: Does the Weather Affect Your Body?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robertson, Bill

2017-01-01

Everyone has an aunt or grandfather or other relative who can tell when the weather is changing because his or her joints start to ache or an old injury begins to hurt. This column provides background science information for elementary teachers. This month's issue focuses on three major weather factors and how they affect the human…

What will be the weather like tomorrow?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christelle, Guilloux

2014-05-01

Since June 2010, our school is part of the network '"météo à l'école'": it hosts an autonomous weather station, approved by Météo France , which measures continuously the temperature and precipitation. The data is transmitted by a GSM module to a computer server. After its validation by Météo France, it is send online every day on a public accessible website : http://www.edumeteo.org/ The MPS Education ( Scientific Methods and Practices) in junior high school classes (one hour and half per week throughout the school year ) makes full use of data from the networks '"météo à l'école'" data and Météo France. Three scientific disciplines :; Mathematics, Life and Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Chemistry are part of a schedule defined after consultation and educational coherence to enable students to: - Discovering and understanding the operation of the sensors station, weather satellites ... - Operating satellite images, studying of the atmosphere and weather phenomena (formation of a storm, for example) - Operating collected data (networks 'météo à l'école' and Météo France) to identify climatic differences between regions, seasons, and their effects on living beings (study of the greenhouse effect and climate warming among others). The ultimate goal is to discover used tools and data to produce a weather forecast. We work for these purposes with the Cité de l'Espace in Toulouse (weather Pole) and the head forecaster Meteo France Merignac.

Evaluation of Thompson-type trend and monthly weather data models for corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

French, V. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

An evaluation was made of Thompson-Type models which use trend terms (as a surrogate for technology), meteorological variables based on monthly average temperature, and total precipitation to forecast and estimate corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. Pooled and unpooled Thompson-type models were compared. Neither was found to be consistently superior to the other. Yield reliability indicators show that the models are of limited use for large area yield estimation. The models are objective and consistent with scientific knowledge. Timely yield forecasts and estimates can be made during the growing season by using normals or long range weather forecasts. The models are not costly to operate and are easy to use and understand. The model standard errors of prediction do not provide a useful current measure of modeled yield reliability.

Degradation assessment of natural weathering on low density polyethylene/thermoplastic soya spent powder blends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nuradibah, M. A.; Sam, S. T.; Noriman, N. Z.; Ragunathan, S.; Ismail, H.

2015-07-01

Soya spent powder was blended with low density polyethylene (LDPE) ranging from 5-25 wt%. Glycerol was added to soya spent powder (SSP) for preparation of thermoplastic soya spent powder (TSSP). Then, the blends were exposed to natural weathering for 6 months. The susceptibility of the LDPE/soya spent powder blends based on its tensile, morphological properties and structural changes was measured every three months. The tensile strength of LDPE/TSSP blends after 6 months of weathering was the lowest compared to the other blends whereas LDPE/SSP blends after 6 months of weathering demonstrated the lowest elongation at break (Eb). Large pore can be seen on the surface of 25 wt% of LDPE/SSP blends.

The December 2015 North Pole Warming Event and the Increasing Occurrence of Such Events

PubMed Central

Moore, G. W. K.

2016-01-01

In late December 2015, widespread media interest revolved around forecasts that the surface air temperature at the North Pole would rise above freezing. Although there has been significant interest in the enhanced warming that is occurring at high northern latitudes, a process known as arctic amplification, remarkably little is known about these midwinter warming events at the pole including their frequency, duration and magnitude as well as the environmental conditions responsible for their occurrence. Here we use buoy and radiosonde data along with operational weather forecasts and atmospheric reanalyses to show that such events are associated with surface cyclones near the pole as well as a highly perturbed polar vortex. They occur once or twice each decade with the earliest identified event taking place in 1959. In addition, the warmest midwinter temperatures at the North Pole have been increasing at a rate that is twice as large as that for mean midwinter temperatures at the pole. It is argued that this enhanced trend is consistent with the loss of winter sea ice from the Nordic Seas that moves the reservoir of warm air over this region northwards making it easier for weather systems to transport this heat polewards. PMID:27976745

Increased chemical weathering during the deglacial to mid-Holocene summer monsoon intensification

PubMed Central

Miriyala, Pavan; Sukumaran, N. P.; Nath, B. Nagender; Ramamurty, P. B.; Sijinkumar, A. V.; Vijayagopal, B.; Ramaswamy, V.; Sebastian, Tyson

2017-01-01

Chemical weathering and the ensuing atmospheric carbon dioxide consumption has long been considered to work on geological time periods until recently when some modelling and natural records have shown that the weathering-related CO2 consumption can change at century to glacial-interglacial time scale. Last glacial to interglacial transition period is a best test case to understand the interplay between Pco2-temperature-chemical weathering when a pulse of rapid chemical weathering was initiated. Here we show, from a high resolution 54 ka record from the Andaman Sea in the northern Indian Ocean, that the chemical weathering responds to deglacial to mid-Holocene summer monsoon intensification in the Myanmar watersheds. The multi-proxy data (Al/K, CIA, Rb/Sr, 87Sr/86Sr for degree of weathering and 143Nd/144Nd for provenance) reveal an increase in silicate weathering with initiation of interglacial warm climate at ~17.7 ka followed by a major change at 15.5 ka. Inferred changes in chemical weathering have varied in tandem with the regional monsoonal proxies (δ18Osw-salinity changes of Northern Indian Ocean, effective Asian moisture content and δ18O records of Chinese caves) and are synchronous with changes in summer insolation at 30°N and δ18O of GISP2 implying that chemical weathering was not a later amplifier but worked in tandem with global climate change. PMID:28303943

Increased chemical weathering during the deglacial to mid-Holocene summer monsoon intensification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miriyala, Pavan; Sukumaran, N. P.; Nath, B. Nagender; Ramamurty, P. B.; Sijinkumar, A. V.; Vijayagopal, B.; Ramaswamy, V.; Sebastian, Tyson

2017-03-01

Chemical weathering and the ensuing atmospheric carbon dioxide consumption has long been considered to work on geological time periods until recently when some modelling and natural records have shown that the weathering-related CO2 consumption can change at century to glacial-interglacial time scale. Last glacial to interglacial transition period is a best test case to understand the interplay between Pco2-temperature-chemical weathering when a pulse of rapid chemical weathering was initiated. Here we show, from a high resolution 54 ka record from the Andaman Sea in the northern Indian Ocean, that the chemical weathering responds to deglacial to mid-Holocene summer monsoon intensification in the Myanmar watersheds. The multi-proxy data (Al/K, CIA, Rb/Sr, 87Sr/86Sr for degree of weathering and 143Nd/144Nd for provenance) reveal an increase in silicate weathering with initiation of interglacial warm climate at ~17.7 ka followed by a major change at 15.5 ka. Inferred changes in chemical weathering have varied in tandem with the regional monsoonal proxies (δ18Osw-salinity changes of Northern Indian Ocean, effective Asian moisture content and δ18O records of Chinese caves) and are synchronous with changes in summer insolation at 30°N and δ18O of GISP2 implying that chemical weathering was not a later amplifier but worked in tandem with global climate change.

Making sense of global warming: Norwegians appropriating knowledge of anthropogenic climate change.

PubMed

Ryghaug, Marianne; Sørensen, Knut Holtan; Naess, Robert

2011-11-01

This paper studies how people reason about and make sense of human-made global warming, based on ten focus group interviews with Norwegian citizens. It shows that the domestication of climate science knowledge was shaped through five sense-making devices: news media coverage of changes in nature, particularly the weather, the coverage of presumed experts' disagreement about global warming, critical attitudes towards media, observations of political inaction, and considerations with respect to everyday life. These sense-making devices allowed for ambiguous outcomes, and the paper argues four main outcomes with respect to the domestication processes: the acceptors, the tempered acceptors, the uncertain and the sceptics.

Workshop on Early Mars: How Warm and How Wet?, part 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Squyres, S. (Editor); Kasting, J. (Editor)

1993-01-01

This volume contains papers that have been accepted for presentation at the Workshop on Early Mars: How Warm and How Wet?, 26-28 Jul. 1993, in Breckenridge, CO. The following topics are covered: the Martian water cycle; Martian paleoclimatology; CO2/CH4 atmosphere on early Mars; Noachian hydrology; early Martian environment; Martian weathering; nitrogen isotope ratios; CO2 evolution on Mars; and climate change.

Impacts of future changes in weather condition on U.S. transportation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaq, M.; Pagan, B. R.; Bonds, B. W.; Rastogi, D.

2016-12-01

High-resolution near-term climate projections suggest an intensification of the regional hydrological cycle over the U.S., leading to stronger and more frequent precipitation events. Increase in precipitation extremes is driven by both warm season convection driven rainstorms and frontal based cold season snowstorms. Results also indicate that future warming is driven more by hot extremes, as decrease in cold extremes is three times less than increase in hot extremes. While projected changes may likely impact the transportation system across the U.S., accurate estimation of such impacts requires knowledge of changes in precipitation types (rain, snow, ice, freezing rain). Here we apply four commonly used precipitation typing algorithms to determine different types of precipitation in an 11-memebr high-resolution (18 km) climate projections dataset that covers 40 years (1966-2005) in the baseline and 40 years (2011-2050) in the future period under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. The results are compared with the NARR-based precipitation classification in the historical period at the county level. Documented weather related county level fatal crash data for the CONUS and non-fatal crash data for selected states in the eastern half of the U.S. is compiled to develop the historical baseline for the impact of weather conditions on transportation. Further analysis is carried out to understand the ability of an ensemble of high-resolution simulations to produce different precipitation types in the baseline period, potential changes in the occurrence of each type of weather condition in the future period and that how such changes may impact road conditions, vehicle crashes and human fatalities. Additional analysis will also be explored to understand the impact of changes in winter weather conditions on the cost associated with road maintenance.

Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bärring, Lars; Strandberg, Gustav

2018-02-01

Since the ‘Paris agreement’ in 2015 there has been much focus on what a +1.5 °C or +2 °C warmer world would look like. Since the focus lies on policy relevant global warming targets, or specific warming levels (SWLs), rather than a specific point in time, projections are pooled together to form SWL ensembles based on the target temperature rather than emission scenario. This study uses an ensemble of CMIP5 global model projections to analyse how well SWL ensembles represent the stabilized climate of global warming targets. The results show that the SWL ensembles exhibit significant trends that reflect the transient nature of the RCP scenarios. These trends have clear effect on the timing and clustering of monthly cold and hot extremes, even though the effect on the temperature of the extreme months is less visible. In many regions there is a link between choice of RCP scenario used in the SWL ensemble and climate change signal in the highest monthly temperatures. In other regions there is no such clear-cut link. From this we conclude that comprehensive analyses of what prospects the different global warming targets bring about will require stabilization scenarios. Awaiting such targeted scenarios we suggest that prudent use of SWL scenarios, taking their characteristics and limitations into account, may serve as reasonable proxies in many situations.

Differentiating Hydrothermal, Pedogenic, and Glacial Weathering in a Cold Volcanic Mars-Analog Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scudder, N. A.; Horgan, B.; Havig, J.; Rutledge, A.; Rampe, E. B.; Hamilton, T.

2016-01-01

Although the current cold, dry environment of Mars extends back through much of its history, its earliest periods experienced significant water- related surface activity. Both geomorphic features (e.g., paleolakes, deltas, and river valleys) and hydrous mineral detections (e.g., clays and salts) have historically been interpreted to imply a "warm and wet" early Mars climate. More recently, atmospheric modeling studies have struggled to produce early climate conditions with temperatures above 0degC, leading some studies to propose a "cold and icy" early Mars dominated by widespread glaciation with transient melting. However, the alteration mineralogy produced in subglacial environments is not well understood, so the extent to which cold climate glacial weathering can produce the diverse alteration mineralogy observed on Mars is unknown. This summer, we will be conducting a field campaign in a glacial weathering environment in the Cascade Range, OR in order to determine the types of minerals that these environments produce. However, we must first disentangle the effects of glacial weathering from other significant alteration processes. Here we attempt a first understanding of glacial weathering by differentiating rocks and sediments weathered by hydrothermal, pedogenic, and glacial weathering processes in the Cascades volcanic range.

Warm Handoff Versus Fax Referral for Linking Hospitalized Smokers to Quitlines.

PubMed

Richter, Kimber P; Faseru, Babalola; Shireman, Theresa I; Mussulman, Laura M; Nazir, Niaman; Bush, Terry; Scheuermann, Taneisha S; Preacher, Kristopher J; Carlini, Beatriz H; Magnusson, Brooke; Ellerbeck, Edward F; Cramer, Carol; Cook, David J; Martell, Mary J

2016-10-01

Few hospitals treat patients' tobacco dependence. To be effective, hospital-initiated cessation interventions must provide at least 1 month of supportive contact post-discharge. Individually randomized clinical trial. Recruitment commenced July 2011; analyses were conducted October 2014-June 2015. The study was conducted in two large Midwestern hospitals. Participants included smokers who were aged ≥18 years, planned to stay quit after discharge, and spoke English or Spanish. Hospital-based cessation counselors delivered the intervention. For patients randomized to warm handoff, staff immediately called the quitline from the bedside and handed the phone to participants for enrollment and counseling. Participants randomized to fax were referred on the day of hospital discharge. Outcomes at 6 months included quitline enrollment/adherence, medication use, biochemically verified cessation, and cost effectiveness. Significantly more warm handoff than fax participants enrolled in quitline (99.6% vs 59.6%; relative risk, 1.67; 95% CI=1.65, 1.68). One in four (25.4% warm handoff, 25.3% fax) were verified to be abstinent at 6-month follow-up; this did not differ significantly between groups (relative risk, 1.02; 95% CI=0.82, 1.24). Cessation medication use in the hospital and receipt of a prescription for medication at discharge did not differ between groups; however, significantly more fax participants reported using cessation medication post-discharge (32% vs 25%, p=0.01). The average incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of enrolling participants into warm handoff was $0.14. Hospital-borne costs were significantly lower in warm handoff than in fax ($5.77 vs $9.41, p<0.001). One in four inpatient smokers referred to quitline by either method were abstinent at 6 months post-discharge. Among motivated smokers, fax referral and warm handoff are efficient and comparatively effective ways to link smokers with evidence-based care. For hospitals, warm handoff is a less

Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.

2017-12-01

By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that

A warm-season comparison of WRF coupled to the CLM4.0, Noah-MP, and Bucket hydrology land surface schemes over the central USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Den Broeke, Matthew S.; Kalin, Andrew; Alavez, Jose Abraham Torres; Oglesby, Robert; Hu, Qi

2017-11-01

In climate modeling studies, there is a need to choose a suitable land surface model (LSM) while adhering to available resources. In this study, the viability of three LSM options (Community Land Model version 4.0 [CLM4.0], Noah-MP, and the five-layer thermal diffusion [Bucket] scheme) in the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3.6 (WRF3.6) was examined for the warm season in a domain centered on the central USA. Model output was compared to Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data, a gridded observational dataset including mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation. Model output temperature, precipitation, latent heat (LH) flux, sensible heat (SH) flux, and soil water content (SWC) were compared to observations from sites in the Central and Southern Great Plains region. An overall warm bias was found in CLM4.0 and Noah-MP, with a cool bias of larger magnitude in the Bucket model. These three LSMs produced similar patterns of wet and dry biases. Model output of SWC and LH/SH fluxes were compared to observations, and did not show a consistent bias. Both sophisticated LSMs appear to be viable options for simulating the effects of land use change in the central USA.

Recent improvement and projected worsening of weather in the United States.

PubMed

Egan, Patrick J; Mullin, Megan

2016-04-21

As climate change unfolds, weather systems in the United States have been shifting in patterns that vary across regions and seasons. Climate science research typically assesses these changes by examining individual weather indicators, such as temperature or precipitation, in isolation, and averaging their values across the spatial surface. As a result, little is known about population exposure to changes in weather and how people experience and evaluate these changes considered together. Here we show that in the United States from 1974 to 2013, the weather conditions experienced by the vast majority of the population improved. Using previous research on how weather affects local population growth to develop an index of people’s weather preferences, we find that 80% of Americans live in counties that are experiencing more pleasant weather than they did four decades ago. Virtually all Americans are now experiencing the much milder winters that they typically prefer, and these mild winters have not been offset by markedly more uncomfortable summers or other negative changes. Climate change models predict that this trend is temporary, however, because US summers will eventually warm more than winters. Under a scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions proceed at an unabated rate (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we estimate that 88% of the US public will experience weather at the end of the century that is less preferable than weather in the recent past. Our results have implications for the public’s understanding of the climate change problem, which is shaped in part by experiences with local weather. Whereas weather patterns in recent decades have served as a poor source of motivation for Americans to demand a policy response to climate change, public concern may rise once people’s everyday experiences of climate change effects start to become less pleasant.

a Weather Monitoring System for Application to Apple and Corn Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stirm, Walter Leroy

Many crop management decisions are based on weather -crop development relationships. Daily weather data is currently used in most crop development research and applied models. Present weather and computer technology now makes possible monitoring of crop development on a realtime basis. This research tests a method of computing crop sensitive temperatures for corn and apple using standard hourly meteorological data. The method also makes use of detailed plant physiological stage measurements to determine timing of vital cultural operations tied to the observed weather conditions. The sensitive temperature method incorporates very short term weather variability accounting for changes in the cloud cover, radiation rates, evaporative cooling and other factors involved in the plant's energy balance. The relationship of plant and weather measurements are also used to determine corn emergence, corn grain drydown rate and fruit harvest duration. The monitoring system also incorporates a crop growth unit forecast technique employing short and medium range temperature forecasts of the National Weather Service. The projections of growth units are made for five and ten days into the future. Predicted growth unit accumulations are compared to historical growth unit accumulations to determine the forecast stage. The sensitive temperature crop monitoring system removes some of the error involved in evaluation of growth units by average daily temperature. Carry over maximum and minimums, extended duration of warm or cool periods within the day and disruption of diurnal temperature curve by passage of fronts are eliminated.

Formation and dynamics of hazardous convective weather events in Ukraine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balabukh, Vera; Malytska, Liudmyla; Bazalieieva, Iuliana

2013-04-01

Atmospheric circulation change observed from the middle of the 70s of the twentieth century in the Northern Hemisphere resulted in changes of weather events formation conditions in different regions. The degree of influence of various factors on the formation of weather events also has changed. This eventually led to an increase in number and intensity of weather events and their variations in time and space. Destructions and damages associated with these events have increased recently and the biggest damages are mainly results of complex convective weather events: showers, hail, squall. Therefore, one of the main tasks of climatology is to study the mechanisms of change repeatability and intensity of these events. The paper considers the conditions of formation of hazardous convective weather phenomena (strong showers, hail, squalls, tornadoes) in Ukraine and their spatial and temporal variability during 1981 - 2010. Research of convection processes was based on daily radiosonde data for the warm season (May-September 1981 - 2010s), reanalysis ERA-Interim ECMWF data for 1989 - 2010 years , daily observations at 187 meteorological stations in Ukraine, as well as observations of the natural phenomena in other regions (different from the meteorological stations). Indices of atmospheric instability, the magnitude of the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), the moisture, the height of the condensation and equilibrium level was used to quantify the intensity of convection. The criteria for the intensity of convection for Ukrainian territory were refined on the basis of these data. Features of the development of convection for various hazardous convective weather events were investigated and identified the necessary conditions for the occurrence of showers, hail, tornadoes and squall in Ukraine. Spatio-temporal variability of convection intensity in Ukraine, its regional characteristics and dynamics for the past 30 year was analyzed. Significant tendency to an

How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

PubMed

Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

2017-03-11

Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.

Enhanced weathering strategies for cooling the planet and saving coral reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beerling, D. J.; Taylor, L.; Quirk, J.; Thorley, R.; Kharecha, P. A.; Hansen, J. E.; Ridgwell, A. J.; Lomas, M.; Banwart, S. A.

2014-12-01

Acceleration of the chemical weathering sink for atmospheric CO2 via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes has been proposed as a macro-engineering Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) scheme, but its effectiveness and response to ongoing global change is poorly understood. We employ a detailed spatially resolved weathering model driven by two ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of 21st Century climate (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) to assess enhanced weathering and examine feedbacks on atmospheric CO2 and ocean carbonate biogeochemistry. Atmospheric CO2 reduction of ~100-260 ppm by year 2100, the range depending mainly on rock composition, is obtained by spreading 5 kg m-2 yr-1 over 20 Mkm2 tropical weathering 'hotspots'. Ocean acidification is neutralized in RCP4.5 and ameliorated in RCP8.5 due to enhanced land-ocean export of weathered alkalinity products and reduced CO2 forcings, and the aragonite saturation state of surface oceans is raised to >3.5, thus avoiding likely extinction of coral reef ecosystems. We suggest that accelerated weathering has substantial potential to help limit global warming and benefits to marine life not obtained from other CDR approaches, but major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences should encourage urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

Deposition and weathering of Asian dust in Paleolithic sites, Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Gi Young; Choi, Jeong-Heon; Lim, Hyoun Soo; Seong, Chuntaek; Yi, Seon Bok

2013-10-01

Paleolithic stone artifacts in Korea typically occur in brown clay-silt (BCS) sequences. The origin and depositional environment of these sequences are important for reconstructing the paleoenvironment as well as for establishing chronologies of artifact-bearing stratigraphic units. We investigated four BCS-bearing sections in foothills and river and marine terraces in Korea by applying quantitative mineralogical, geochemical, microtextural, and K-Ar isotopic methods. In all four sections, the lower units are colluvial and fluvial deposits strongly influenced by diverse local lithology, whereas the upper units are characterized by BCS units. Mineralogical/geochemical compositions, grain sizes, and colors converge into common properties in the upper BCS units in all sections. These common properties are consistent with the eastward trends of increasing weathering degree and grain size fining throughout the loess-paleosol sections of the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP). K-Ar detrital ages of the sections also converge upward into a narrow range similar to the age ranges of the loess and paleosols in the CLP. The top BCS unit in the Jeongok section, the thickest section, is underlain by an additionally weathered BCS unit, with strong red chroma indicating a change from warm to cold climate. We did not observe any clear evidence of climatic changes in other thinner sections, which may be due to a superposition of cold-stage accumulation and warm-stage deep weathering. The common properties of the BCSs in Korean sections and their relationship to the CLP loess and paleosols indicate widespread deposition of Asian dust and subsequent weathering in the late Quaternary, forming BCS sequences. In this respect, the BCS sequences investigated here are considered to be the additionally weathered equivalents of the CLP loess-paleosol sequences, having been exposed to the high annual precipitation of the Korean Peninsula. Given the wide distribution of BCS sequences at Paleolithic

Negative CO2 emissions via enhanced silicate weathering in coastal environments

PubMed Central

Montserrat, Francesc

2017-01-01

Negative emission technologies (NETs) target the removal of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, and are being actively investigated as a strategy to limit global warming to within the 1.5–2°C targets of the 2015 UN climate agreement. Enhanced silicate weathering (ESW) proposes to exploit the natural process of mineral weathering for the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. Here, we discuss the potential of applying ESW in coastal environments as a climate change mitigation option. By deliberately introducing fast-weathering silicate minerals onto coastal sediments, alkalinity is released into the overlying waters, thus creating a coastal CO2 sink. Compared with other NETs, coastal ESW has the advantage that it counteracts ocean acidification, does not interfere with terrestrial land use and can be directly integrated into existing coastal management programmes with existing (dredging) technology. Yet presently, the concept is still at an early stage, and so two major research challenges relate to the efficiency and environmental impact of ESW. Dedicated experiments are needed (i) to more precisely determine the weathering rate under in situ conditions within the seabed and (ii) to evaluate the ecosystem impacts—both positive and negative—from the released weathering products. PMID:28381634

Development of predictive weather scenarios for early prediction of rice yield in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Y.; Cho, J.; Jung, I.

2017-12-01

International grain prices are becoming unstable due to frequent occurrence of abnormal weather phenomena caused by climate change. Early prediction of grain yield using weather forecast data is important for stabilization of international grain prices. The APEC Climate Center (APCC) is providing seasonal forecast data based on monthly climate prediction models for global seasonal forecasting services. The 3-month and 6-month seasonal forecast data using the multi-model ensemble (MME) technique are provided in their own website, ADSS (APCC Data Service System, http://adss.apcc21.org/). The spatial resolution of seasonal forecast data for each individual model is 2.5°×2.5°(about 250km) and the time scale is created as monthly. In this study, we developed customized weather forecast scenarios that are combined seasonal forecast data and observational data apply to early rice yield prediction model. Statistical downscale method was applied to produce meteorological input data of crop model because field scale crop model (ORYZA2000) requires daily weather data. In order to determine whether the forecasting data is suitable for the crop model, we produced spatio-temporal downscaled weather scenarios and evaluated the predictability by comparison with observed weather data at 57 ASOS stations in South Korea. The customized weather forecast scenarios can be applied to various application fields not only early rice yield prediction. Acknowledgement This work was carried out with the support of "Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science and Technology Development (Project No: PJ012855022017)" Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea.

It Takes Two to Tango: Arctic Influence on Mid-Latitude Weather is State-Dependent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francis, J. A.; Vavrus, S. J.; Cohen, J. L.

2016-12-01

Since the late 1990s the Arctic has been warming two to three times faster than mid-latitude regions, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA). During the first half of 2016, AA reached a new record high value. This disproportionate warming is expected to influence the large-scale atmospheric circulation of the northern hemisphere, but understanding exactly how, where, when, and under what conditions has been an active and controversial topic of research. Observational studies of the atmospheric response are challenged by the short record of AA in a noisy environment, while modeling efforts have produced mixed results owing in part to deficiencies in both capturing the full signal of AA and simulating highly amplified atmospheric features (such as blocks, cut-off lows, and sharp ridging). Despite these challenges, progress in understanding the effects of AA on mid-latitude weather has been steady. In this presentation, we will discuss a new hypothesis and supporting evidence suggesting that the influence of regional AA depends on the background state of the large-scale circulation. Long-lived sea-surface temperature patterns in mid-latitudes, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, favor particular ridge/trough configurations that affect the magnitude of AA's influence on weather patterns. These relationships vary both regionally and seasonally. As AA continues to strengthen with unabated rising concentrations of greenhouse gases, the mechanisms by which AA affects mid-latitude weather, particularly extreme events, may become clearer. The record-breaking AA of 2016 and associated extreme mid-latitude weather events may be a preview of the "new normal" in a warmer world.

Constraining climate sensitivity and continental versus seafloor weathering using an inverse geological carbon cycle model.

PubMed

Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Catling, David C

2017-05-22

The relative influences of tectonics, continental weathering and seafloor weathering in controlling the geological carbon cycle are unknown. Here we develop a new carbon cycle model that explicitly captures the kinetics of seafloor weathering to investigate carbon fluxes and the evolution of atmospheric CO 2 and ocean pH since 100 Myr ago. We compare model outputs to proxy data, and rigorously constrain model parameters using Bayesian inverse methods. Assuming our forward model is an accurate representation of the carbon cycle, to fit proxies the temperature dependence of continental weathering must be weaker than commonly assumed. We find that 15-31 °C (1σ) surface warming is required to double the continental weathering flux, versus 3-10 °C in previous work. In addition, continental weatherability has increased 1.7-3.3 times since 100 Myr ago, demanding explanation by uplift and sea-level changes. The average Earth system climate sensitivity is  K (1σ) per CO 2 doubling, which is notably higher than fast-feedback estimates. These conclusions are robust to assumptions about outgassing, modern fluxes and seafloor weathering kinetics.

Constraining climate sensitivity and continental versus seafloor weathering using an inverse geological carbon cycle model

PubMed Central

Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Catling, David C.

2017-01-01

The relative influences of tectonics, continental weathering and seafloor weathering in controlling the geological carbon cycle are unknown. Here we develop a new carbon cycle model that explicitly captures the kinetics of seafloor weathering to investigate carbon fluxes and the evolution of atmospheric CO2 and ocean pH since 100 Myr ago. We compare model outputs to proxy data, and rigorously constrain model parameters using Bayesian inverse methods. Assuming our forward model is an accurate representation of the carbon cycle, to fit proxies the temperature dependence of continental weathering must be weaker than commonly assumed. We find that 15–31 °C (1σ) surface warming is required to double the continental weathering flux, versus 3–10 °C in previous work. In addition, continental weatherability has increased 1.7–3.3 times since 100 Myr ago, demanding explanation by uplift and sea-level changes. The average Earth system climate sensitivity is  K (1σ) per CO2 doubling, which is notably higher than fast-feedback estimates. These conclusions are robust to assumptions about outgassing, modern fluxes and seafloor weathering kinetics. PMID:28530231

Does Weather Matter? The Effect of Weather Patterns and Temporal Factors on Pediatric Orthopedic Trauma Volume

PubMed Central

Livingston, Kristin S.; Miller, Patricia E.; Lierhaus, Anneliese; Matheney, Travis H.; Mahan, Susan T.

2016-01-01

Objectives: Orthopaedists often speculate how weather and school schedule may influence pediatric orthopedic trauma volume, but few studies have examined this. This study aims to determine: how do weather patterns, day, month, season and public school schedule influence the daily frequency of pediatric orthopedic trauma consults and admissions? Methods: With IRB approval, orthopedic trauma data from a level 1 pediatric trauma center, including number of daily orthopedic trauma consults and admissions, were collected from July 2009 to March 2012. Historical weather data (high temperatures, precipitation and hours of daylight), along with local public school schedule data were collected for the same time period. Univariate and multivariate regression models were used to show the average number of orthopedic trauma consults and admissions as a function of weather and temporal variables. Results: High temperature, precipitation, month and day of the week significantly affected the number of daily consults and admissions. The number of consults and admissions increased by 1% for each degree increase in temperature (p=0.001 and p<0.001, respectively), and decreased by 21% for each inch of precipitation (p<0.001, p=0.006). Daily consults on snowy days decreased by an additional 16% compared to days with no precipitation. November had the lowest daily consult and admission rate, while September had the highest. Daily consult rate was lowest on Wednesdays and highest on Saturdays. Holiday schedule was not independently significant. Conclusion: Pediatric orthopedic trauma consultations and admissions are highly linked to temperature and precipitation, as well as day of the week and time of year. PMID:27990193

Does Weather Matter? The Effect of Weather Patterns and Temporal Factors on Pediatric Orthopedic Trauma Volume.

PubMed

Livingston, Kristin S; Miller, Patricia E; Lierhaus, Anneliese; Matheney, Travis H; Mahan, Susan T

2016-01-01

Orthopaedists often speculate how weather and school schedule may influence pediatric orthopedic trauma volume, but few studies have examined this. This study aims to determine: how do weather patterns, day, month, season and public school schedule influence the daily frequency of pediatric orthopedic trauma consults and admissions? With IRB approval, orthopedic trauma data from a level 1 pediatric trauma center, including number of daily orthopedic trauma consults and admissions, were collected from July 2009 to March 2012. Historical weather data (high temperatures, precipitation and hours of daylight), along with local public school schedule data were collected for the same time period. Univariate and multivariate regression models were used to show the average number of orthopedic trauma consults and admissions as a function of weather and temporal variables. High temperature, precipitation, month and day of the week significantly affected the number of daily consults and admissions. The number of consults and admissions increased by 1% for each degree increase in temperature (p=0.001 and p<0.001, respectively), and decreased by 21% for each inch of precipitation (p<0.001, p=0.006). Daily consults on snowy days decreased by an additional 16% compared to days with no precipitation. November had the lowest daily consult and admission rate, while September had the highest. Daily consult rate was lowest on Wednesdays and highest on Saturdays. Holiday schedule was not independently significant. Pediatric orthopedic trauma consultations and admissions are highly linked to temperature and precipitation, as well as day of the week and time of year.

Interactions between tectonics, silicate weathering, and climate explored with carbon cycle modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penman, D. E.; Caves Rugenstein, J. K.; Ibarra, D. E.; Winnick, M.

2017-12-01

Earth's long-term carbon cycle is thought to benefit from a stabilizing negative feedback in the form of CO2 consumption by the chemical weathering of silicate minerals: during periods of elevated atmospheric pCO2, chemical weathering rates increase, thus consuming more atmospheric CO2 and cooling global climate, whereas during periods of low pCO2, weathering rates decrease, allowing buildup of CO2 in the atmosphere and warming. At equilibrium, CO2 consumption by silicate weathering balances volcanic CO2 degassing at a specific atmospheric pCO2 dictated by the relationship between total silicate weathering rate and pCO2: Earth's "weathering curve." We use numerical carbon cycle modeling to demonstrate that the shape and slope of the weathering curve is crucial to understanding proposed tectonic controls on pCO2 and climate. First, the shape of the weathering curve dictates the equilibrium response of the carbon cycle to changes in the rate of background volcanic/solid Earth CO2 degassing, which has been suggested to vary significantly with plate tectonic reorganizations over geologic timescales. Second, we demonstrate that if tectonic events can significantly change the weathering curve, this can act as an effective driver of pCO2 and climate on tectonic timescales by changing the atmospheric pCO2 at which silicate weathering balances a constant volcanic/solid Earth degassing rate. Finally, we review the complex interplay of environmental factors that affect modern weathering rates in the field and highlight how the resulting uncertainty surrounding the shape of Earth's weathering curve significantly hampers our ability to quantitatively predict the response of pCO2 and climate to tectonic forcing, and thus represents a substantial knowledge gap in Earth science. We conclude with strategies for closing this knowledge gap by using precise paleoclimatic reconstructions of intervals with known tectonic forcings.

Olivine Weathering aud Sulfate Formation Under Cryogenic Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Niles, Paul B.; Golden, D. C.; Michalski, J.

2013-01-01

High resolution photography and spectroscopy of the martian surface (MOC, HiRISE) from orbit has revolutionized our view of Mars with one of the most important discoveries being wide-spread layered sedimentary deposits associated with sulfate minerals across the low to mid latitude regions of Mars. The mechanism for sulfate formation on Mars has been frequently attributed to playa-like evaporative environments under prolonged warm conditions. An alternate view of the ancient martian climate contends that prolonged warm temperatures were never present and that the atmosphere and climate has been similar to modern conditions throughout most of its history. This view has had a difficult time explaining the sedimentary history of Mars and in particular the presence of sulfate minerals which seemingly need more water. We suggest here that mixtures of atmospheric aerosols, ice, and dust have the potential for creating small films of cryo-concentrated acidic solutions that may represent an important unexamined environment for understanding weathering processes on Mars. This study seeks to test whether sulfate formation may be possible at temperatures well below 0degC in water limited environments removing the need for prolonged warm periods to form sulfates on early Mars. To test this idea we performed laboratory experiments to simulate weathering of mafic minerals under Mars-like conditions. The weathering rates measured in this study suggest that fine grained olivine on Mars would weather into sulfate minerals in short time periods if they are exposed to H2SO4 aerosols at temperatures at or above -40degC. In this system, the strength of the acidic solution is maximized through eutectic freezing in an environment where the silicate minerals are extremely fine grained and have high surface areas. This provides an ideal environment despite the very low temperatures. On Mars the presence of large deposits of mixed ice and dust is undisputed. The presence of substantial

Global Warming And Meltwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bratu, S.

2012-04-01

glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent occurrences of extreme weather events including heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall events, species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes, and changes in agricultural yields. Meltwater is the water released by the melting of snow or ice, including glacial ice and ice shelves in the oceans. Meltwater is often found in the ablation zone of glaciers, where the rate of snow cover is reduced. In a report published in June 2007, the United Nations Environment Program estimated that global warming could lead to 40% of the world's population being affected by the loss of glaciers, snow and the associated meltwater in Asia. This is one of many activities of the physics laboratory that the students of our high school are involved in.

Weathering During Glacial-Interglacial Cycles Based on Pb Isotopes at Orphan Knoll, NW Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flynn, S. N.; Martin, E. E.

2017-12-01

Seawater Pb isotopes extracted from FeMn oxyhydroxide coatings on deep sea sediments preserve a record of regional variations in continental weathering intensity. Crocket et al. (2012) documented a distinct increase in seawater Pb isotopes across Termination I (TI) at IODP Sites U1302/03 on Orphan Knoll in the NW Atlantic which they attributed to an increase in weathering intensity associated with ice sheet retreat. Deglaciation during Termination II (TII) was more rapid than TI due to higher insolation forcing and elevated CO2 levels. This rapid warming followed Heinrich Stadial 11 (HS11) cooling and circulation changes, but was not interrupted by a Younger Dryas-type reversal in warming. In this study, Pb isotopic data from leachates of the <63 µm fraction of bulk sediment from TII at Sites U1302/03 are used to test whether changes in weathering are a feature of terminations and whether differences in the character of the termination translate to differences in the weathering response. We analyzed the clay/silt fraction to minimize preformed FeMn oxyhydroxides associated with IRD. All three Pb isotopic systems display similar patterns. Seawater 206Pb/204Pb values are 19.5 during MIS 6, reach a minimum of 18.7 during HS11, increase in < 1 ky to 20.6 in MIS 5e, and then vary between 19.9 - 20.5 across MIS 5e-d. In comparison to the TI study (Crocket et al., 2009), the TII HS is defined by a minimum in Pb isotopes that suggests suppressed chemical weathering during cooling and ice sheet advance. The increase in 206Pb/204Pb during TII indicates a rapid increase in weathering at high latitudes following glacial retreat. This result is consistent with a negative shift in ɛNd values during TII observed farther south on Bermuda Rise and interpreted as increased weathering of old continental material (Deaney et al. 2017). Future research on TII at Orphan Knoll includes analyses of detrital Pb isotopes to isolate the impact of changes in source material versus weathering

Intercontinental difference in extreme weather events for the Northern Hemisphere over the past half century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, A.; Tan, J.; Piao, S.

2014-12-01

Weather events that are located in the tails of a weather distribution are called weather extremes. Weather extremes, including severe drought, flooding, heat and cold waves, usually can cause greatest damage to human lives and properties, and have profound implication on ecosystem productivity and carbon cycles. There is mounting evidence suggests that the frequency of temperature and hydrological weather extremes have steadily increased over the last decades, largely due to the ongoing climate change. On the other hand, the distribution and trend of weather extremes can be regionally heterogeneous, which have not been well understood. Here we investigate the spatial distribution and temporal trend of weather extremes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) over the past half century (1961-2010), with emphasis on the intercontinental comparisons. Our results suggest that warming extremes have increased significantly in East Asia and West Europe; while coldness extremes have decreased globally. Heavy precipitation extremes significantly increased in eastern Northern America, boreal Eurasia, and some parts of China; while drought events showed an increasing trend in northern China-southern Mongolia and some parts of western United States. Our results highlight the regional difference in the trend of weather extremes, which need to be incorporated in the mitigation measures.

[Treatment of patients with neuromuscular disease in a warm climate].

PubMed

Dahl, Arve; Skjeldal, Ola H; Simensen, Andreas; Dalen, Håkon E; Bråthen, Tone; Ahlvin, Petra; Svendsby, Ellen Kathrine; Sveinall, Anne; Fredriksen, Per Morten

2004-07-01

Several patient groups request treatment in a warm climate, in spite of the fact that the effects of such treatment are undocumented. 47 children and 40 adults with neuromuscular diseases were recruited, stratified according to sex, use or non-use of electric wheelchair, primary myopathy or hereditary neuropathy, and randomised into two adult and two children groups. The patients were treated in a rehabilitation centre, either on Lanzarote or in Norway. All patients were monitored with physical tests and questionnaires at the start of the study, at the end of the treatment period, after three months (all groups) and after six months (adults only). No significant differences in effect between the groups were found. In the warm climate, the adult patient group showed a statistically significant improvement regarding pain, quality of life, depression, and results of physical tests at the end of treatment. After three months, the improvement in physical tests was still present. Among adult patients treated in Norway, improvement in physical tests was statistically significant after three months, but not at the end of the treatment period. This study did not show a statistically significant difference between patients with various neuromuscular diseases treated in a warm climate compared to similar patients treated in Norway.

Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunne, John P.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; John, Jasmin G.

2013-06-01

A fundamental aspect of greenhouse-gas-induced warming is a global-scale increase in absolute humidity. Under continued warming, this response has been shown to pose increasingly severe limitations on human activity in tropical and mid-latitudes during peak months of heat stress. One heat-stress metric with broad occupational health applications is wet-bulb globe temperature. We combine wet-bulb globe temperatures from global climate historical reanalysis and Earth System Model (ESM2M) projections with industrial and military guidelines for an acclimated individual's occupational capacity to safely perform sustained labour under environmental heat stress (labour capacity)--here defined as a global population-weighted metric temporally fixed at the 2010 distribution. We estimate that environmental heat stress has reduced labour capacity to 90% in peak months over the past few decades. ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to 80% in peak months by 2050. Under the highest scenario considered (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to less than 40% by 2200 in peak months, with most tropical and mid-latitudes experiencing extreme climatological heat stress. Uncertainties and caveats associated with these projections include climate sensitivity, climate warming patterns, CO2 emissions, future population distributions, and technological and societal change.

The recent warming of permafrost in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osterkamp, T. E.

2005-12-01

This paper reports results of an experiment initiated in 1977 to determine the effects of climate on permafrost in Alaska. Permafrost observatories with boreholes were established along a north-south transect of Alaska in undisturbed permafrost terrain. The analysis and interpretation of annual temperature measurements in the boreholes and daily temperature measurements of the air, ground and permafrost surfaces made with automated temperature loggers are reported. Permafrost temperatures warmed along this transect coincident with a statewide warming of air temperatures that began in 1977. At two sites on the Arctic Coastal Plain, the warming was seasonal, greatest during "winter" months (October through May) and least during "summer" months (June through September). Permafrost temperatures peaked in the early 1980s and then decreased in response to slightly cooler air temperatures and thinner snow covers. Arctic sites began warming again typically about 1986 and Interior Alaska sites about 1988. Gulkana, the southernmost site, has been warming slowly since it was drilled in 1983. Air temperatures were relatively warm and snow covers were thicker-than-normal from the late 1980s into the late 1990s allowing permafrost temperatures to continue to warm. Temperatures at some sites leveled off or cooled slightly at the turn of the century. Two sites (Yukon River Bridge and Livengood) cooled during the period of observations. The magnitude of the total warming at the surface of the permafrost (through 2003) was 3 to 4 °C for the Arctic Coastal Plain, 1 to 2 °C for the Brooks Range including its northern and southern foothills, and 0.3 to 1 °C south of the Yukon River. While the data are sparse, permafrost is warming throughout the region north of the Brooks Range, southward along the transect from the Brooks Range to the Chugach Mountains (except for Yukon River and Livengood), in Interior Alaska throughout the Tanana River region, and in the region south of the

Global Warming and Energy Transition: A Public Policy Imperative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, G. T.

2006-12-01

The historic transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy resources has begun. This development is commonly attributed to increasing energy costs and the need for energy security. Looming ever larger, however, is the issue that will soon drive the third energy revolution: global warming. A preponderance of evidence documents accelerating warming, enlarging impacts, and human causes -- principally combustion of fossil fuels. The carbon dioxide (C02) content of Earth's atmosphere has increased more than 35 percent since the beginning of the industrial revolution and is the highest in 650,000 years. This dramatic rise of C02 and attendant positive feedbacks are already forcing significant impacts worldwide. These include atmospheric warming with shifting climatic and habitat zones, spreading tropical disease, and more extreme weather events; rapid ice loss at high latitude and high altitude; ocean warming and acidification with coral reef bleaching and intensifying tropical storms; rising sea level; and accelerating extinction rates. The 2007 draft report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts greater warming than in previous models. A tipping point to abrupt climate change may be imminent. It is incumbent upon geoscientists and geoscience educators to assume leadership in addressing this challenge through public outreach and general education. The following topics should be integrated into all appropriate courses: the evidence of global warming and its causes; observed present and predicted future impacts of global warming; mitigation and adaptation strategies; and implications for energy policies and economic opportunities. New entry-level science and general education courses -- such as Climate Change Fundamentals and Energy in Nature, Technology, and Society -- are proving to be effective should be widely developed In addition, by workshops and presentations to civic and business organizations and by demonstrated examples of

Developmental phenotypic plasticity helps bridge stochastic weather events associated with climate change.

PubMed

Burggren, Warren

2018-05-10

The slow, inexorable rise in annual average global temperatures and acidification of the oceans are often advanced as consequences of global change. However, many environmental changes, especially those involving weather (as opposed to climate), are often stochastic, variable and extreme, particularly in temperate terrestrial or freshwater habitats. Moreover, few studies of animal and plant phenotypic plasticity employ realistic (i.e. short-term, stochastic) environmental change in their protocols. Here, I posit that the frequently abrupt environmental changes (days, weeks, months) accompanying much longer-term general climate change (e.g. global warming over decades or centuries) require consideration of the true nature of environmental change (as opposed to statistical means) coupled with an expansion of focus to consider developmental phenotypic plasticity. Such plasticity can be in multiple forms - obligatory/facultative, beneficial/deleterious - depending upon the degree and rate of environmental variability at specific points in organismal development. Essentially, adult phenotypic plasticity, as important as it is, will be irrelevant if developing offspring lack sufficient plasticity to create modified phenotypes necessary for survival. © 2018. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

1980 Weather summary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Peter M.

The weather in the United States during 1980 was bad. A 3-month heat wave in the southwest caused about $20 billion in ruined crops, an increase in power consumption, and damage to roads and highways. Nationwide, the heat killed 1320 people. Floods caused more than $1 billion in losses. Hurricane Allen caused about $500 million in property losses and took two lives.The highest temperature reading during 1980, 51°C (124°F), was reached five times. Locations were at Bull Head, Arizona; Death Valley, California; and three times at Baker, California. Preliminary figures also show that the lowest temperature for the year was recorded at Tok weather station, 150 miles southeast of Fairbanks, Alaska. There the mercury plummeted to -56°C (-68°F). In the lower 48 states the minimum thermometer reading was -44°C at Wisdom, Montana.

Maternal Warm Responsiveness and Negativity Following Traumatic Brain Injury in Young Children

PubMed Central

Fairbanks, Joy M.; Brown, Tanya M.; Cassedy, Amy; Taylor, H. Gerry; Yeates, Keith O.; Wade, Shari L.

2014-01-01

Purpose/Objective To understand how traumatic brain injury (TBI) affects maternal warm responsiveness and negativity over the first 12 months following injury. Method/Design We used a concurrent cohort research design to examine dyadic interactions in young children with a TBI (n = 78) and a comparison group of young children with orthopedic injuries (OI; n = 112) and their families during the initial weeks following injury (i.e., baseline) and at two follow-up periods (approximately 6 and 12 months later). Trained raters coded videotaped interactions during a free play and structured teaching task for maternal warm responsiveness and negativity. Results Mothers in the complicated mild/moderate TBI group, but not those in the severe TBI group, exhibited significantly lower levels of maternal warm responsiveness than mothers in the OI group. However, these differences were observed only at baseline during free play and only at baseline and 6 months postinjury during the structured teaching task, suggesting diminishing adverse effects of complicated mild/moderate TBI on parenting over time postinjury. Analysis failed to reveal group differences in maternal negativity at any of the assessments. Across groups, lower socioeconomic status (SES) was associated with lower levels of warm responsiveness and higher levels of negativity. Conclusions/Implications These findings, though preliminary, indicate possible alterations in mother–child interactions in the months following a TBI. PMID:23978080

A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns

PubMed Central

Fowler, Hayley J.; Kilsby, Christopher G.; Neal, Robert

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Weather‐pattern, or weather‐type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad‐scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. This study analyses the aspects of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a new set of objectively defined weather patterns. These new patterns are currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to Lamb weather types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and drought severity index (DSI) series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather‐pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for SPI wet and dry periods and for the 5% most intense DSI‐based drought months. The new weather‐pattern definitions and daily occurrences largely agree with their respective LWTs, allowing comparison between the two classifications. There is also broad agreement between weather pattern and LWT changes in frequencies. The new data set is shown to be adequate for precipitation‐based analyses in the UK, although a smaller set of clustered weather patterns is not. Furthermore, intra‐pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in this context. Six of the new weather patterns are associated with drought over the entire UK, with several other patterns linked to regional drought. It is demonstrated that the new data set of weather patterns offers a new opportunity for classification‐based analyses in the UK. PMID:29456290

Persistency in monthly mean temperatures in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasol, Dubravka; Ólafsson, Haraldur

2016-04-01

Time series from a number of weather stations in Europe have been studied in order to assess the persistency of montly mean temperatures. In most regions, the correlation between the mean temperatures of two months next to each other in time has maxima in the summer and in the winter, while there are minima in the sping and the autumn. An exception from this is in the oceanic warm climate in the southwest, where the spring minimum is missing. A plausible explanation for the positive correlation in the winter may be related to snow on the ground. The snow is associated with cold spells and increases the albedo, contributing to extension of the low temperatures. The summertime correlation may be related to the water content of the soil. A cold and rainy period results in wet soil and subsequently, relatively large part of the energy of the incoming solar radiation is consumed by evaporation, rather than sensible heating. In the spring, there is generally no snow on the ground and in the autumn, the air temperature is not as sensitive to the water content of the soil as in the summer. This may explain the low correlation in spring and autumn.

Optimal Detection of Global Warming using Temperature Profiles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leroy, Stephen S.

1997-01-01

Optimal fingerprinting is applied to estimate the amount of time it would take to detect warming by increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in monthly averages of temperature profiles over the Indian Ocean.

Fingerprint and weathering characteristics of stranded oils after the Hebei Spirit oil spill.

PubMed

Yim, Un Hyuk; Ha, Sung Yong; An, Joon Geon; Won, Jong Ho; Han, Gi Myung; Hong, Sang Hee; Kim, Moonkoo; Jung, Jee-Hyun; Shim, Won Joon

2011-12-15

After the Hebei Spirit oil spill in December 2007, mixtures of three types of Middle East crude oil were stranded along 375 km of coastline in Western Korea. Stranded oils were monitored for their identity and weathering status in 19 stations in three provinces. The results obtained using a weathering model indicated that evaporation would be a dominant weathering process immediately after the spill and the sequential changes of chemical composition in the field verified this prediction positively. In the early stages of weathering, the half-life of spilled oil was calculated to be 2.6 months. Tiered fingerprinting approaches identified background contamination and confirmed the identity of the stranded oils with the spill source. Double ratios using alkylated phenanthrenes and dibenzothiophenes in samples after the spill clearly reveal the impact of weathering on oil. However, to derive defensible fingerprinting for source identification and allocation, recalcitrant biomarkers are extremely useful. Weathering status of the stranded oils was evaluated using composition profiles of saturated hydrocarbons, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and various weathering indices. Most samples collected 8 months after the spill were categorized in either the advanced or extreme weathering states. Gradual increase in toxic components in the residual oil through weathering emphasizes the need for adaptive ecotoxicological approaches. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Complex regional pain syndrome: evidence for warm and cold subtypes in a large prospective clinical sample.

PubMed

Bruehl, Stephen; Maihöfner, Christian; Stanton-Hicks, Michael; Perez, Roberto S G M; Vatine, Jean-Jacques; Brunner, Florian; Birklein, Frank; Schlereth, Tanja; Mackey, Sean; Mailis-Gagnon, Angela; Livshitz, Anatoly; Harden, R Norman

2016-08-01

Limited research suggests that there may be Warm complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) and Cold CRPS subtypes, with inflammatory mechanisms contributing most strongly to the former. This study for the first time used an unbiased statistical pattern recognition technique to evaluate whether distinct Warm vs Cold CRPS subtypes can be discerned in the clinical population. An international, multisite study was conducted using standardized procedures to evaluate signs and symptoms in 152 patients with clinical CRPS at baseline, with 3-month follow-up evaluations in 112 of these patients. Two-step cluster analysis using automated cluster selection identified a 2-cluster solution as optimal. Results revealed a Warm CRPS patient cluster characterized by a warm, red, edematous, and sweaty extremity and a Cold CRPS patient cluster characterized by a cold, blue, and less edematous extremity. Median pain duration was significantly (P < 0.001) shorter in the Warm CRPS (4.7 months) than in the Cold CRPS subtype (20 months), with pain intensity comparable. A derived total inflammatory score was significantly (P < 0.001) elevated in the Warm CRPS group (compared with Cold CRPS) at baseline but diminished significantly (P < 0.001) over the follow-up period, whereas this score did not diminish in the Cold CRPS group (time × subtype interaction: P < 0.001). Results support the existence of a Warm CRPS subtype common in patients with acute (<6 months) CRPS and a relatively distinct Cold CRPS subtype most common in chronic CRPS. The pattern of clinical features suggests that inflammatory mechanisms contribute most prominently to the Warm CRPS subtype but that these mechanisms diminish substantially during the first year postinjury.

[Effects of sowing times on the spike differentiation of different wheat varieties under the climate of warm winter].

PubMed

Gao, Qinglu; Xue, Xiang; Wu, Yu; Ru, Zhengang

2003-10-01

Spike differentiation processes and freezing damage of three wheat varieties were studied by sowing in different stages. The results showed that under the condition of weather changing warm, the time of entering each stage of spike differentiation of wheat of strong spring variety was earlier than that of wheat of spring variety and semi-winter variety. Sowing times had more effects on durative time of the elongation stage, single-prism stage and two-prism stage of the spike differentiation. Under sowing early, the stronger the springness of wheat was, the quicker it developed, the higher spike differentiation phases it reached before winter, and the more serious freezing damage it suffered in wintering. According to this, the semi-winter varieties of wheat should be adopted first and arranged in pairs with spring varieties in wheat production, and the sowing times should not be too early as the weather becoming warm.

Mineral weathering experiments to explore the effects of vegetation shifts in high mountain region (Wind River Range, Wyoming, USA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavris, Christian; Furrer, Gerhard; Dahms, Dennis; Anderson, Suzanne P.; Blum, Alex; Goetze, Jens; Wells, Aaron; Egli, Markus

2015-04-01

Climate change influences the evolution of soil and landscape. With changing climate, both flora and fauna must adapt to new conditions. It is unknown in many respects to what extent soils will react to warming and vegetation change. The aim of this study was to identify possible consequences for soils in a dry-alpine region with respect to weathering of primary minerals and leaching of elements under expected warming climate conditions due to shifts in vegetation. To achieve this, a field empirical approach was used in combination with laboratory weathering experiments simulating several scenarios. Study sites located in Sinks Canyon and in Stough Basin of the Wind River Range, Wyoming, USA, encompass ecotones that consist of tundra, forest, or sagebrush (from moist to dry, with increasing temperature, respectively). All soils are developed on granitoid moraines. The mineralogy of the soils along the altitudinal sequence was analysed using cathodoluminescence and X-ray diffraction, and revealed clear mineral transformations: biotite and plagioclase were both weathered to smectite while plagioclase also weathered to kaolinite. Cooler, wetter, altitude-dependent conditions seemed to promote weathering of these primary minerals. To test the impact of soil solutions from different ecotones on mineral weathering, aqueous extracts from topsoils (A horizons) were reacted with subsoils (B horizons) in batch experiments. Aqueous extracts of topsoil samples were generated for all three ecotones, and these solutions were characterized. For the batch experiments, the topsoil extracts were reacted for 1800 hours with the subsoil samples of the same ecotone, or with the subsoil samples from higher altitude ecotones. Solutions collected periodically during the experiments were measured using ICP-OES and ion chromatography. Dissolved Ca, Mg and K were mainly controlled by the chemical weathering of oligoclase, K-feldspar and biotite. With increasing altitude (and consequently

Elevated olivine weathering rates and sulfate formation at cryogenic temperatures on Mars.

PubMed

Niles, Paul B; Michalski, Joseph; Ming, Douglas W; Golden, D C

2017-10-17

Large Hesperian-aged (~3.7 Ga) layered deposits of sulfate-rich sediments in the equatorial regions of Mars have been suggested to be evidence for ephemeral playa environments. But early Mars may not have been warm enough to support conditions similar to what occurs in arid environments on Earth. Instead cold, icy environments may have been widespread. Under cryogenic conditions sulfate formation might be blocked, since kinetics of silicate weathering are typically strongly retarded at temperatures well below 0 °C. But cryo-concentration of acidic solutions may counteract the slow kinetics. Here we show that cryo-concentrated acidic brines rapidly chemically weather olivine minerals and form sulfate minerals at temperatures as low as -60 °C. These experimental results demonstrate the viability of sulfate formation under current Martian conditions, even in the polar regions. An ice-hosted sedimentation and weathering model may provide a compelling description of the origin of large Hesperian-aged layered sulfate deposits on Mars.

Revisiting dirt cracking as a physical weathering process in warm deserts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorn, Ronald I.

2011-12-01

A half century ago C.D. Ollier proposed that insolation-driven temperature changes expand and contract fill in fissures enough to widen cracks, a process that would permit progressively deeper penetration of fissure fills, that would in turn generate a positive feedback of greater and greater strain until desert boulders and bedrock shatters. Although desert physical weathering by "dirt cracking" has occasionally been cited, this hypothesized process remains without support from subsequent research. Here, field observations, electron microscopy, X-ray powder diffraction, particle-size analysis, and laboratory experiments shed new light on dirt cracking. Little clear evidence supports the original notion of expansive pressures from thermal fluctuations. However, mineralogical, high resolution transmission electron microscopy, back-scattered electron microscopy, and experimental evidence support two alternative processes of widening fractures: wetting and drying of fills inside fissures; and the precipitation and remobilization of calcium carbonate. A re-envisioned dirt-cracking wedging process starts with calcium carbonate precipitating in fissures less than 5 μm wide. First precipitation, and then ongoing dissolution of this laminar calcrete, opens enough space for dust to penetrate into these narrow fractures. Wetting of expansive clays in the fissure fill exerts enough pressure to widen and deepen the fissure, allowing the carbonate precipitation process to penetrate even deeper and allowing even more dust to move into a fracture. As the dust infiltrates, its texture changes from a chaotic mix of particles to an alignment of clays parallel to fissure sides. This parallel alignment could increase the efficiency of fill wedging. Ollier's concept of a positive feedback remains supported; each increment of fracture deepening and widening permits more, even deeper infiltration of laminar calcrete and dust. Field and electron microscope observations of rock spalling

Position paper on the potential of inadvertent weather modification of the Florida Peninsula resulting from neutralization of space shuttle solid rocket booster exhaust clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bollay, E.; Bosart, L.; Droessler, E.; Jiusto, J.; Lala, G. G.; Mohnen, V.; Schaefer, V.; Squires, P.

1979-01-01

A concept of injecting compounds into the exhaust cloud was proposed to neutralize the acidic nature of the low-level stabilized ground cloud (SGC) was studied. The potential Inadvertent Weather Modification caused by exhaust cloud characteristics from three hours to seven days after launch was studied. Possible effects of the neutralized SGC in warm and cloud precipitation processes were discussed. Based on a detailed climatology of the Florida Peninsula, the risk for weather modification under a variety of weather situations was assessed.

Weather.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruth, Amy, Ed.

1996-01-01

This theme issue of "The Goldfinch" focuses on weather in Iowa and weather lore. The bulletin contains historical articles, fiction, activities, and maps. The table of contents lists: (1) "Wild Rosie's Map"; (2) "History Mystery"; (3) "Iowa's Weather History"; (4) "Weather Wonders"; (6)…

Antarctica: Cooling or Warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunde, Armin; Ludescher, Josef; Franzke, Christian

2013-04-01

We consider the 14 longest instrumental monthly mean temperature records from the Antarctica and analyse their correlation properties by wavelet and detrended fluctuation analysis. We show that the stations in the western and the eastern part of the Antarctica show significant long-term memory governed by Hurst exponents close to 0.8 and 0.65, respectively. In contrast, the temperature records at the inner part of the continent (South Pole and Vostok), resemble white noise. We use linear regression to estimate the respective temperature differences in the records per decade (i) for the annual data, (ii) for the summer and (iii) for the winter season. Using a recent approach by Lennartz and Bunde [1] we estimate the respective probabilities that these temperature differences can be exceeded naturally without inferring an external (anthropogenic) trend. We find that the warming in the western part of the continent and the cooling at the South Pole is due to a gradually changes in the cold extremes. For the winter months, both cooling and warming are well outside the 95 percent confidence interval, pointing to an anthropogenic origin. In the eastern Antarctica, the temperature increases and decreases are modest and well within the 95 percent confidence interval. [1] S. Lennartz and A. Bunde, Phys. Rev. E 84, 021129 (2011)

Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, G.; Alfieri, L.; Wyser, K.; Mentaschi, L.; Betts, R. A.; Carrao, H.; Spinoni, J.; Vogt, J.; Feyen, L.

2018-04-01

Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply-demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South-eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100-year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming.

Monthly forecasting of agricultural pests in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirschi, M.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Samietz, J.; Calanca, P.; Weigel, A. P.; Fischer, A. M.; Rotach, M. W.

2012-04-01

Given the repercussions of pests and diseases on agricultural production, detailed forecasting tools have been developed to simulate the degree of infestation depending on actual weather conditions. The life cycle of pests is most successfully predicted if the micro-climate of the immediate environment (habitat) of the causative organisms can be simulated. Sub-seasonal pest forecasts therefore require weather information for the relevant habitats and the appropriate time scale. The pest forecasting system SOPRA (www.sopra.info) currently in operation in Switzerland relies on such detailed weather information, using hourly weather observations up to the day the forecast is issued, but only a climatology for the forecasting period. Here, we aim at improving the skill of SOPRA forecasts by transforming the weekly information provided by ECMWF monthly forecasts (MOFCs) into hourly weather series as required for the prediction of upcoming life phases of the codling moth, the major insect pest in apple orchards worldwide. Due to the probabilistic nature of operational monthly forecasts and the limited spatial and temporal resolution, their information needs to be post-processed for use in a pest model. In this study, we developed a statistical downscaling approach for MOFCs that includes the following steps: (i) application of a stochastic weather generator to generate a large pool of daily weather series consistent with the climate at a specific location, (ii) a subsequent re-sampling of weather series from this pool to optimally represent the evolution of the weekly MOFC anomalies, and (iii) a final extension to hourly weather series suitable for the pest forecasting model. Results show a clear improvement in the forecast skill of occurrences of upcoming codling moth life phases when incorporating MOFCs as compared to the operational pest forecasting system. This is true both in terms of root mean squared errors and of the continuous rank probability scores of the

Profiling the scent of weathered training aids for blood-detection dogs.

PubMed

Chilcote, Baree; Rust, LaTara; Nizio, Katie D; Forbes, Shari L

2018-03-01

At outdoor crime scenes, cadaver-detection and blood-detection dogs may be tasked with locating blood that is days, weeks or months old. Although it is known that the odour profile of blood will change during this time, it is currently unknown how the profile changes when exposed to the environment. Such variables must be studied in order to understand when the odour profile is no longer detectable by the scent-detection dogs and other crime scene tools should be implemented. In this study, blood was deposited onto concrete and varnished wood surfaces and weathered in an outdoor environment over a three-month period. Headspace samples were collected using solid phase microextraction (SPME) and analysed using comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography - time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC×GC-TOFMS). The chemical odour profiles were compared with the behavioural responses of cadaver-detection and blood-detection dogs during training. Data interpretation using principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) established that the blood odour could no longer be detected using SPME-GC×GC-TOFMS after two months of weathering on both surfaces. Conversely, the blood-detection dogs had difficulty locating the blood samples after one month of weathering on concrete and after one week of weathering on varnished wood. The scent-detection dogs evaluated herein had not been previously exposed to environmentally weathered blood samples during training. Given that this study was conducted to test the dogs' baseline abilities, it is expected that with repeated exposure, the dogs' capabilities would likely improve. The knowledge gained from this study can assist in providing law enforcement with more accurate training aids for blood-detection dogs and can improve their efficiency when deployed to outdoor crime scenes. Copyright © 2017 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of weather on mood, productivity, and frequency of emotional crisis in a temperate continental climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnston, A. G.

1988-06-01

A group of 62 mostly university student subjects kept structured diaries of their feelings and their productivity for six weeks in Illinois in early autumn. During the same period, daily frequency of telephone calls to a crisis intervention service in the same community was monitored, and complete daily weather data for the vicinity were provided by a local meteorological research facility. Major findings are as follows. The weather appears to influence mood and productivity, but only to a smallextent compared with the aggregate of all other controlling factors. Males show a relatively stronger effect than females. Psychologically troubled people generally appear to be more affected by weather than university students. The students and the crisis intervention service clients with “mild” problems tend to be stressed more when the weather is unstable, cloudy, warm and humid, and least stressed during sunny, dry, cool weather with rising barometric pressure. The crisis service clients with “severe” problems react oppositely to these two weather types. The meaning of these and other results and the strengths and weaknesses of this study's design are discussed.

Winter cold of eastern continental boundaries induced by warm ocean waters.

PubMed

Kaspi, Yohai; Schneider, Tapio

2011-03-31

In winter, northeastern North America and northeastern Asia are both colder than other regions at similar latitudes. This has been attributed to the effects of stationary weather systems set by elevated terrain (orography), and to a lack of maritime influences from the prevailing westerly winds. However, the differences in extent and orography between the two continents suggest that further mechanisms are involved. Here we show that this anomalous winter cold can result in part from westward radiation of large-scale atmospheric waves--nearly stationary Rossby waves--generated by heating of the atmosphere over warm ocean waters. We demonstrate this mechanism using simulations with an idealized general circulation model, with which we show that the extent of the cold region is controlled by properties of Rossby waves, such as their group velocity and its dependence on the planetary rotation rate. Our results show that warm ocean waters contribute to the contrast in mid-latitude winter temperatures between eastern and western continental boundaries not only by warming western boundaries, but also by cooling eastern boundaries.

Global warming and South Indian monsoon rainfall-lessons from the Mid-Miocene.

PubMed

Reuter, Markus; Kern, Andrea K; Harzhauser, Mathias; Kroh, Andreas; Piller, Werner E

2013-04-01

Precipitation over India is driven by the Indian monsoon. Although changes in this atmospheric circulation are caused by the differential seasonal diabatic heating of Asia and the Indo-Pacific Ocean, it is so far unknown how global warming influences the monsoon rainfalls regionally. Herein, we present a Miocene pollen flora as the first direct proxy for monsoon over southern India during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. To identify climatic key parameters, such as mean annual temperature, warmest month temperature, coldest month temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean precipitation during the driest month, mean precipitation during the wettest month and mean precipitation during the warmest month the Coexistence Approach is applied. Irrespective of a ~ 3-4 °C higher global temperature during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum, the results indicate a modern-like monsoonal precipitation pattern contrasting marine proxies which point to a strong decline of Indian monsoon in the Himalaya at this time. Therefore, the strength of monsoon rainfall in tropical India appears neither to be related to global warming nor to be linked with the atmospheric conditions over the Tibetan Plateau. For the future it implies that increased global warming does not necessarily entail changes in the South Indian monsoon rainfall.

The Atmospheric Response to a Future Warming Deficit in North Atlantic SSTs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gervais, M.; Shaman, J. L.; Kushnir, Y.

2017-12-01

As SSTs increase globally over the 21st century, global climate models project a significant deficit in warming within the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic Ocean. This study investigates the impact of this warming deficit on atmosphere circulation. A series of large ensemble experiments are conducted using the Community Atmosphere Model 5 forced with specified sea ice and SSTs for the early (2010-2019), mid (2050-2059), and late (2090-2099) 21stcentury. SST and sea ice fields from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble experiment are used as boundary conditions for the control simulations. Experiments with either a filled or deepened warming hole are conducted by adding a SST perturbation field to these time-varying SST boundary conditions. Results from these experiments demonstrate that the warming hole has significant local and remote impacts on the atmosphere. Filling (deepening) the warming hole results in a local increase (decrease) in turbulent heat fluxes relative to the control run and consequentially an increase (decrease) in temperature in the overlying lower troposphere that spreads over Europe. There are significant impacts on the location and strength of both the North Atlantic and North Pacific jets as well as on the North Atlantic Oscillation. These impacts of the warming hole on both the mean state and variability of the atmosphere have important implications for sensible weather in the Northern Hemisphere and in particular over Europe.

Public health preparedness for the impact of global warming on human health.

PubMed

Wassel, John J

2009-01-01

To assess the changes in weather and weather-associated disturbances related to global warming; the impact on human health of these changes; and the public health preparedness mandated by this impact. Qualitative review of the literature. Articles will be obtained by searching PubMed database, Google, and Google Scholar search engines using terms such as "global warming," "climate change," "human health," "public health," and "preparedness." Sixty-seven journal articles were reviewed. The projections and signs of global environmental changes are worrisome, and there are reasons to believe that related information may have been conservatively interpreted and presented in the recent past. Although the challenges are great, there are many opportunities for devising beneficial solutions at individual, community, and global levels. It is essential for public health professionals to become involved in advocating for change at all of these levels, as well as through professional organizations. We must begin "greening" our own lives and clinical practice, and start talking about these issues with patients. As we build walkable neighborhoods, change methods of energy production, and make water use and food production and distribution more sustainable, the benefits to improved air quality, a stabilized climate, social support, and individual and community health will be dramatic.

Extreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid; Najafi, M. S.

2018-01-01

Observations unequivocally show that Iran has been rapidly warming over recent decades, which in sequence has triggered a wide range of climatic impacts. Meteorological records of several ground stations across Iran with daily temporal resolution for the period 1951-2013 were analyzed to investigate the climate change and its impact on some weather extremes. Iran has warmed by nearly 1.3 °C during the period 1951-2013 (+0.2 °C per decade), with an increase of the minimum temperature at a rate two times that of the maximum. Consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat extremes and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes have been observed. The annual precipitation has decreased by 8 mm per decade, causing an expansion of Iran's dry zones. Previous studies have pointed out that warming is generally associated with more frequent heavy precipitation because a warmer air can hold more moisture. Nevertheless, warming in Iran has been associated with more frequent light precipitation, but less frequent moderate, heavy and extremely heavy precipitation. This is because in the subtropical dry zones, a longer time is required to recharge the atmosphere with water vapour in a warmer climate, causing more water vapour to be transported from the subtropics to high latitudes before precipitations forms. In addition, the altitude of the condensation level increases in a warmer climate in subtropical regions, causing an overall decrease of precipitation. We argue that changing in the frequency of heavy precipitation in response to warming varies depending on the geographical location. Warming over the dry subtropical regions is associated with a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation, while an increase is expected over both subpolar and tropical regions. The warmer climate has also led to the increase in the frequency of both thunderstorms (driven by convective heating) and dust events over Iran.

Maternal history of parentification and warm responsiveness: The mediating role of knowledge of infant development.

PubMed

Nuttall, Amy K; Valentino, Kristin; Wang, Lijuan; Lefever, Jennifer Burke; Borkowski, John G

2015-12-01

Maternal history of parentification in the family of origin poses subsequent risk to parenting quality during the transition to parenthood. The present study builds on prior work by evaluating whether the association between maternal parentification history and warm responsiveness is mediated by maternal knowledge of infant development in first time mothers. Using data from a prospective longitudinal study on the transition to motherhood, maternal knowledge of infant development and observational codings of warm responsiveness were examined across the first 18 months of parenthood for 374 mothers who also provided retrospective reports of their childhood parentification experiences. Results indicated that maternal retrospective reports of higher engagement in parentified roles in family of origin were associated with poorer knowledge of infant development across the first 18 months of parenthood and, in turn, less warm responsiveness with 18-month-old children. However, maternal parentification history did not significantly influence changes in maternal warm responsiveness across the transition to parenthood. These findings suggest that preventive interventions targeting maternal knowledge of infant development as early as the prenatal period may be useful for preventing poor warm responsiveness. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

2014-11-01

One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

The effects of global warming on allergic diseases.

PubMed

Chan, A W; Hon, K L; Leung, T F; Ho, M H; Rosa Duque, J S; Lee, T H

2018-06-01

Global warming is a public health emergency. Substantial scientific evidence indicates an unequivocal rising trend in global surface temperature that has caused higher atmospheric levels of moisture retention leading to more frequent extreme weather conditions, shrinking ice volume, and gradually rising sea levels. The concomitant rise in the prevalence of allergic diseases is closely related to these environmental changes because warm and moist environments favour the proliferation of common allergens such as pollens, dust mites, molds, and fungi. Global warming also stresses ecosystems, further accelerating critical biodiversity loss. Excessive carbon dioxide, together with the warming of seawater, promotes ocean acidification and oxygen depletion. This results in a progressive decline of phytoplankton and fish growth that in turn promotes the formation of larger oceanic dead zones, disrupting the food chain and biodiversity. Poor environmental biodiversity and a reduction in the microbiome spectrum are risk factors for allergic diseases in human populations. While climate change and the existence of an allergy epidemic are closely linked according to robust international research, efforts to mitigate these have encountered strong resistance because of vested economic and political concerns in different countries. International collaboration to establish legally binding regulations should be mandatory for forest protection and energy saving. Lifestyle and behavioural changes should also be advocated at the individual level by focusing on low carbon living; avoiding food wastage; and implementing the 4Rs: reduce, reuse, recycle, and replace principles. These lifestyle measures are entirely consistent with the current recommendations for allergy prevention. Efforts to mitigate climate change, preserve biodiversity, and prevent chronic diseases are interdependent disciplines.

Weathering effects on tensile and stress rupture strength of glass fiber reinforced vinylester and epoxy thermoset pipes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nizamuddin, Syed

Glass fiber reinforced vinylester (GFRE) and epoxy (GFRE) pipes have been used for more than three decades to mitigate corrosion problems in oil fields, chemical and industrial plants. In these services, both GFRV and GFRE pipes are exposed to various environmental conditions. Long-term mechanical durability of these pipes after exposure to environmental conditions, which include natural weathering exposure to seasonal temperature variation, sea water, humidity and other corrosive fluids like crude oil, should be well known. Although extensive research has been undertaken, several major issues pertaining to the performance of these pipes under a number of environmental conditions still remain unresolved. The main objective of this study is to investigate the effects of natural weathering, combined natural weathering with seawater and crude oil exposure, for time periods ranging from 3 to 36 months respectively, on the tensile and stress rupture behavior of GFRV and GFRE pipes. Ring specimens are machined from GFRV and GFRE pipes and tested before and after exposure to different weathering conditions prevalent in the eastern region (Dhahran) of Saudi Arabia and present under service conditions. The natural weathering and combined natural weathering with crude oil exposure of GFRV specimens revealed increased tensile strength even after 36 months of exposure when compared with that of the as received samples. However, the combined natural weathering with seawater exposure of GFRV samples revealed better tensile behavior till 24 months of exposure, and after 36 months their tensile strength was seen to be below that of the as received GFRV samples. The stress rupture behavior of natural weather exposed GFRV samples showed an improvement after 12 months of exposure and it decreased after 24 and 36 months of exposure when compared with the as received GFRV samples. The combined natural weathering with crude oil and seawater exposure of GFRV sample revealed improved

Land plants, weathering, and Paleozoic climatic evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goddéris, Yves; Maffre, Pierre; Donnadieu, Yannick; Carretier, Sébastien

2017-04-01

At the end of the Paleozoic, the Earth plunged into the longest and most severe glaciation of the Phanerozoic eon (Montanez et al., 2013). The triggers for this event (called the Late Paleozoic Ice Age, LPIA) are still debated. Based on field observations and laboratory experiments showing that CO2 consumption by rock weathering is enhanced by the presence of plants, the onset of the LPIA has been related to the colonization of the continents by vascular plants in the latest Devonian. By releasing organic acids, concentrating respired CO2 in the soil, and by mechanically breaking rocks with their roots, land plants may have increased the weatherability of the continental surfaces. The "greening" of the continents may also have contributed to an enhanced burial of organic carbon in continental sedimentary basins, assuming that lignin decomposers have not yet evolved (Berner, 2004). As a consequence, CO2 went down, setting the conditions for the onset of the LPIA. This scenario is now widely accepted in the scientific community, and reinforces the feeling that biotic evolutionary steps are main drivers of the long-term climatic evolution. Although appealing, this scenario suffers from some weaknesses. The timing of the continent colonization by vascular plants was achieved in the late Devonian, several tens of million years before the onset of the LPIA (Davies and Gibling, 2013). Second, lignin decomposer fungi were present at the beginning of the Carboniferous, 360 million years ago while the LPIA started around 340-330 Ma (Nelsen et al., 2016). Land plants have also decreased the continental albedo, warming the Earth surface and promoting runoff. Weathering was thus facilitated and CO2 went down. Yet, temperature may have stayed constant, the albedo change compensating for the CO2 fall (Le Hir et al., 2010). From a modelling point of view, the effect of land plants on CO2 consumption by rock weathering is accounted for by forcing the weatherability of the

Formative Assessment Probes: Is It Erosion or Weathering?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keeley, Page

2016-01-01

This column focuses on promoting learning through assessment. The formative assessment probe in this month's issue can be used as an initial elicitation before students are introduced to the formal concepts of weathering and erosion.

Weather observations on Whistler Mountain during five storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thériault, Julie M.; Rasmussen, Kristen L.; Fisico, Teresa; Stewart, Ronald E.; Joe, Paul; Gultepe, Ismail; Clément, Marilys; Isaac, George A.

2014-01-01

A greater understanding of precipitation formation processes over complex terrain near the west coast of British Colombia will contribute to many relevant applications, such as climate studies, local hydrology, transportation, and winter sport competition. The phase of precipitation is difficult to determine because of the warm and moist weather conditions experienced during the wintertime in coastal mountain ranges. The goal of this study is to investigate the wide range of meteorological conditions that generated precipitation on Whistler Mountain from 4-12 March 2010 during the SNOW-V10 field campaign. During this time period, five different storms were documented in detail and were associated with noticeably different meteorological conditions in the vicinity of Whistler Mountain. New measurement techniques, along with the SNOW-V10 instrumentation, were used to obtain in situ observations during precipitation events along the Whistler mountainside. The results demonstrate a high variability of weather conditions ranging from the synoptic-scale to the macro-scale. These weather events were associated with a variation of precipitation along the mountainside, such as events associated with snow, snow pellets, and rain. Only two events associated with a rain-snow transition along the mountainside were observed, even though above-freezing temperatures along the mountainside were recorded 90 % of the time. On a smaller scale, these events were also associated with a high variability of snowflake types that were observed simultaneously near the top of Whistler Mountain. Overall, these detailed observations demonstrate the importance of understanding small-scale processes to improve observational techniques, short-term weather prediction, and longer-term climate projections over mountainous regions.

Thirty years of weather change and effects on a grassland in the Peloncillo Mountains, New Mexico

Treesearch

William H. Moir

2011-01-01

In this paper I describe and compare grassland changes since 1977 at the Central Peloncillo Research Natural Area (CPRNA) with temperature and precipitation data from its nearby weather station. The grama grasslands there have thrived through two distinctive climate periods since 1977. The current period began with warm and dry years beginning around 1993 and...

Public perceptions of climate change and extreme weather events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Morgan, G.; Taylor, A.; Wong-Parodi, G.

2013-12-01

Climate experts face a serious communication challenge. Public debate about climate change continues, even though at the same time people seem to complain about extreme weather events becoming increasingly common. As compared to the abstract concept of ';climate change,' (changes in) extreme weather events are indeed easier to perceive, more vivid, and personally relevant. Public perception research in different countries has suggested that people commonly expect that climate change will lead to increases in temperature, and that unseasonably warm weather is likely to be interpreted as evidence of climate change. However, relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be driven by changes in other types of extreme weather events, such as exceptional amounts of precipitation or flooding. We therefore examined how perceptions of and personal experiences with changes in these specific weather events are related to public concerns about climate change. In this presentation, we will discuss findings from two large public perception surveys conducted in flood-prone Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (US) and with a national sample in the UK, where extreme flooding has recently occurred across the country. Participants completed questions about their perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events, and their beliefs about climate change. We then conducted linear regressions to predict individual differences in climate-change beliefs, using perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events as predictors, while controlling for demographic characteristics. The US study found that people (a) perceive flood chances to be increasing over the decades, (b) believe climate change to play a role in increases in future flood chances, and (c) would interpret future increases in flooding as evidence for climate change. The UK study found that (a) UK residents are more likely to perceive increases in ';wet' events such

Beyond climate envelopes: effects of weather on regional population trends in butterflies.

PubMed

WallisDeVries, Michiel F; Baxter, Wendy; Van Vliet, Arnold J H

2011-10-01

Although the effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly evident by the shifts in species ranges across taxonomical groups, the underlying mechanisms affecting individual species are still poorly understood. The power of climate envelopes to predict future ranges has been seriously questioned in recent studies. Amongst others, an improved understanding of the effects of current weather on population trends is required. We analysed the relation between butterfly abundance and the weather experienced during the life cycle for successive years using data collected within the framework of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme for 40 species over a 15-year period and corresponding climate data. Both average and extreme temperature and precipitation events were identified, and multiple regression was applied to explain annual changes in population indices. Significant weather effects were obtained for 39 species, with the most frequent effects associated with temperature. However, positive density-dependence suggested climatic independent trends in at least 12 species. Validation of the short-term predictions revealed a good potential for climate-based predictions of population trends in 20 species. Nevertheless, data from the warm and dry year of 2003 indicate that negative effects of climatic extremes are generally underestimated for habitat specialists in drought-susceptible habitats, whereas generalists remain unaffected. Further climatic warming is expected to influence the trends of 13 species, leading to an improvement for nine species, but a continued decline in the majority of species. Expectations from climate envelope models overestimate the positive effects of climate change in northwestern Europe. Our results underline the challenge to include population trends in predicting range shifts in response to climate change.

Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winslow, Luke; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Rose, Kevin C.; Robertson, Dale M.

2017-01-01

Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr−1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr−1). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr−1), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr−1 to 0.035°C yr−1, SD: 0.034°C yr−1). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.

A new mechanism for warm-season precipitation response to global warming based on convection-permitting simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Aiguo; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Prein, Andreas F.

2017-08-01

Climate models project increasing precipitation intensity but decreasing frequency as greenhouse gases increase. However, the exact mechanism for the frequency decrease remains unclear. Here we investigate this by analyzing hourly data from regional climate change simulations with 4 km grid spacing covering most of North America using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model was forced with present and future boundary conditions, with the latter being derived by adding the CMIP5 19-model ensemble mean changes to the ERA-interim reanalysis. The model reproduces well the observed seasonal and spatial variations in precipitation frequency and histograms, and the dry interval between rain events over the contiguous US. Results show that overall precipitation frequency indeed decreases during the warm season mainly due to fewer light-moderate precipitation (0.1 < P ≤ 2.0 mm/h) events, while heavy (2 < P ≤ 10 mm/h) to very heavy precipitation (P > 10 mm/h) events increase. Dry spells become longer and more frequent, together with a reduction in time-mean relative humidity (RH) in the lower troposphere during the warm season. The increased dry hours and decreased RH lead to a reduction in overall precipitation frequency and also for light-moderate precipitation events, while water vapor-induced increases in precipitation intensity and the positive latent heating feedback in intense storms may be responsible for the large increase in intense precipitation. The size of intense storms increases while their number decreases in the future climate, which helps explain the increase in local frequency of heavy precipitation. The results generally support a new hypothesis for future warm-season precipitation: each rainstorm removes ≥7% more moisture from the air per 1 K local warming, and surface evaporation and moisture advection take slightly longer than currently to replenish the depleted moisture before the next storm forms, leading to longer dry spells and

Investigation and Modeling of Cranberry Weather Stress.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croft, Paul Joseph

Cranberry bog weather conditions and weather-related stress were investigated for development of crop yield prediction models and models to predict daily weather conditions in the bog. Field investigations and data gathering were completed at the Rutgers University Blueberry/Cranberry Research Center experimental bogs in Chatsworth, New Jersey. Study indicated that although cranberries generally exhibit little or no stomatal response to changing atmospheric conditions, the evaluation of weather-related stress could be accomplished via use of micrometeorological data. Definition of weather -related stress was made by establishing critical thresholds of the frequencies of occurrence, and magnitudes of, temperature and precipitation in the bog based on values determined by a review of the literature and a grower questionnaire. Stress frequencies were correlated with cranberry yield to develop predictive models based on the previous season's yield, prior season data, prior and current season data, current season data; and prior and current season data through July 31 of the current season. The predictive ability of the prior season models was best and could be used in crop planning and production. Further examination of bog micrometeorological data permitted the isolation of those weather conditions conducive to cranberry scald and allowed for the institution of a pilot scald advisory program during the 1991 season. The micrometeorological data from the bog was also used to develop models to predict daily canopy temperature and precipitation, based on upper air data, for grower use. Models were developed for each month for maximum and minimum temperatures and for precipitation and generally performed well. The modeling of bog weather conditions is an important first step toward daily prediction of cranberry weather-related stress.

Local atmospheric response to warm mesoscale ocean eddies in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Confluence region.

PubMed

Sugimoto, Shusaku; Aono, Kenji; Fukui, Shin

2017-09-19

In the extratropical regions, surface winds enhance upward heat release from the ocean to atmosphere, resulting in cold surface ocean: surface ocean temperature is negatively correlated with upward heat flux. However, in the western boundary currents and eddy-rich regions, the warmer surface waters compared to surrounding waters enhance upward heat release-a positive correlation between upward heat release and surface ocean temperature, implying that the ocean drives the atmosphere. The atmospheric response to warm mesoscale ocean eddies with a horizontal extent of a few hundred kilometers remains unclear because of a lack of observations. By conducting regional atmospheric model experiments, we show that, in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Confluence region, wintertime warm eddies heat the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), and accelerate westerly winds in the near-surface atmosphere via the vertical mixing effect, leading to wind convergence around the eastern edge of eddies. The warm-eddy-induced convergence forms local ascending motion where convective precipitation is enhanced, providing diabatic heating to the atmosphere above MABL. Our results indicate that warm eddies affect not only near-surface atmosphere but also free atmosphere, and possibly synoptic atmospheric variability. A detailed understanding of warm eddy-atmosphere interaction is necessary to improve in weather and climate projections.

Elevational species shifts in a warmer climate are overestimated when based on weather station data.

PubMed

Scherrer, Daniel; Schmid, Samuel; Körner, Christian

2011-07-01

Strong topographic variation interacting with low stature alpine vegetation creates a multitude of micro-habitats poorly represented by common 2 m above the ground meteorological measurements (weather station data). However, the extent to which the actual habitat temperatures in alpine landscapes deviate from meteorological data at different spatial scales has rarely been quantified. In this study, we assessed thermal surface and soil conditions across topographically rich alpine landscapes by thermal imagery and miniature data loggers from regional (2-km(2)) to plot (1-m(2)) scale. The data were used to quantify the effects of spatial sampling resolution on current micro-habitat distributions and habitat loss due to climate warming scenarios. Soil temperatures showed substantial variation among slopes (2-3 K) dependent on slope exposure, within slopes (3-4 K) due to micro-topography and within 1-m(2) plots (1 K) as a result of plant cover effects. A reduction of spatial sampling resolution from 1 × 1 m to 100 × 100 m leads to an underestimation of current habitat diversity by 25% and predicts a six-times higher habitat loss in a 2-K warming scenario. Our results demonstrate that weather station data are unable to reflect the complex thermal patterns of aerodynamically decoupled alpine vegetation at the investigated scales. Thus, the use of interpolated weather station data to describe alpine life conditions without considering the micro-topographically induced thermal mosaic might lead to misinterpretation and inaccurate prediction.

Decomposition of recalcitrant carbon under experimental warming in boreal forest

PubMed Central

Allison, Steven D.; Treseder, Kathleen K.

2017-01-01

Over the long term, soil carbon (C) storage is partly determined by decomposition rate of carbon that is slow to decompose (i.e., recalcitrant C). According to thermodynamic theory, decomposition rates of recalcitrant C might differ from those of non-recalcitrant C in their sensitivities to global warming. We decomposed leaf litter in a warming experiment in Alaskan boreal forest, and measured mass loss of recalcitrant C (lignin) vs. non-recalcitrant C (cellulose, hemicellulose, and sugars) throughout 16 months. We found that these C fractions responded differently to warming. Specifically, after one year of decomposition, the ratio of recalcitrant C to non-recalcitrant C remaining in litter declined in the warmed plots compared to control. Consistent with this pattern, potential activities of enzymes targeting recalcitrant C increased with warming, relative to those targeting non-recalcitrant C. Even so, mass loss of individual C fractions showed that non-recalcitrant C is preferentially decomposed under control conditions whereas recalcitrant C losses remain unchanged between control and warmed plots. Moreover, overall mass loss was greater under control conditions. Our results imply that direct warming effects, as well as indirect warming effects (e.g. drying), may serve to maintain decomposition rates of recalcitrant C compared to non-recalcitrant C despite negative effects on overall decomposition. PMID:28622366

Live birth in a woman with recurrent implantation failure and adenomyosis following transfer of refrozen-warmed embryos.

PubMed

Safari, Somayyeh; Faramarzi, Azita; Agha-Rahimi, Azam; Khalili, Mohammad Ali

2016-09-01

The aim was to report a healthy live birth using re-vitrified-warmed cleavage-stage embryos derived from supernumerary warmed embryos after frozen embryo transfer (ET) in a patient with recurrent implantation failure (RIF). The case was a 39-year-old female with a history of polycystic ovarian syndrome and adenomyosis, along with RIF. After ovarian hyperstimulation, 33 cumulus-oocyte complexes were retrieved and fertilized with conventional in vitro fertilization and intracytoplasmic sperm injection. Because of the risk of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome, 16 grade B and C embryos were vitrified. After 3 and 6 months, 3 and 4 B-C warmed embryos were transferred to the uterus, respectively. However, implantation did not take place. Ten months later, four embryos were warmed, two grade B 8-cell embryos were transferred, and two embryos were re-vitrified. One year later, the two re-vitrified cleavage-stage embryos were warmed, which resulted in a successful live birth. This finding showed that following first warming, it is feasible to refreeze supernumerary warmed embryos for subsequent ET in patients with a history of RIF.

Increasing risk over time of weather-related hazards to the European population: a data-driven prognostic study.

PubMed

Forzieri, Giovanni; Cescatti, Alessandro; E Silva, Filipe Batista; Feyen, Luc

2017-08-01

The observed increase in the effects on human beings of weather-related disasters has been largely attributed to the rise in population exposed, with a possible influence of global warming. Yet, future risks of weather-related hazards on human lives in view of climate and demographic changes have not been comprehensively investigated. We assessed the risk of weather-related hazards to the European population in terms of annual numbers of deaths in 30 year intervals relative to the reference period (1981-2010) up to the year 2100 (2011-40, 2041-70, and 2071-100) by combining disaster records with high-resolution hazard and demographic projections in a prognostic modelling framework. We focused on the hazards with the greatest impacts-heatwaves and cold waves, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal floods, and windstorms-and evaluated their spatial and temporal variations in intensity and frequency under a business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gas emissions. We modelled long-term demographic dynamics through a territorial modelling platform to represent the evolution of human exposure under a corresponding middle-of-the-road socioeconomic scenario. We appraised human vulnerability to weather extremes on the basis of more than 2300 records collected from disaster databases during the reference period and assumed it to be static under a scenario of no adaptation. We found that weather-related disasters could affect about two-thirds of the European population annually by the year 2100 (351 million people exposed per year [uncertainty range 126 million to 523 million] during the period 2071-100) compared with 5% during the reference period (1981-2010; 25 million people exposed per year). About 50 times the number of fatalities occurring annually during the reference period (3000 deaths) could occur by the year 2100 (152 000 deaths [80 500-239 800]). Future effects show a prominent latitudinal gradient, increasing towards southern Europe, where the premature

An observational analysis: Tropical relative to Arctic influence on midlatitude weather in the era of Arctic amplification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Judah

2016-05-01

The tropics, in general, and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in particular are almost exclusively relied upon for seasonal forecasting. Much less considered and certainly more controversial is the idea that Arctic variability is influencing midlatitude weather. However, since the late 1980s and early 1990s, the Arctic has undergone the most rapid warming observed globally, referred to as Arctic amplification (AA), which has coincided with an observed increase in extreme weather. Analysis of observed trends in hemispheric circulation over the period of AA more closely resembles variability associated with Arctic boundary forcings than with tropical forcing. Furthermore, analysis of intraseasonal temperature variability shows that the cooling in midlatitude winter temperatures has been accompanied by an increase in temperature variability and not a decrease, popularly referred to as "weather whiplash."

Infectious Disease in a Warming World: How Weather Influenced West Nile Virus in the United States (2001–2005)

PubMed Central

Soverow, Jonathan E.; Wellenius, Gregory A.; Fisman, David N.; Mittleman, Murray A.

2009-01-01

Background The effects of weather on West Nile virus (WNV) mosquito populations in the United States have been widely reported, but few studies assess their overall impact on transmission to humans. Objectives We investigated meteorologic conditions associated with reported human WNV cases in the United States. Methods We conducted a case–crossover study to assess 16,298 human WNV cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2001 to 2005. The primary outcome measures were the incidence rate ratio of disease occurrence associated with mean weekly maximum temperature, cumulative weekly temperature, mean weekly dew point temperature, cumulative weekly precipitation, and the presence of ≥ 1 day of heavy rainfall (≥ 50 mm) during the month prior to symptom onset. Results Increasing weekly maximum temperature and weekly cumulative temperature were similarly and significantly associated with a 35–83% higher incidence of reported WNV infection over the next month. An increase in mean weekly dew point temperature was significantly associated with a 9–38% higher incidence over the subsequent 3 weeks. The presence of at least 1 day of heavy rainfall within a week was associated with a 29–66% higher incidence during the same week and over the subsequent 2 weeks. A 20-mm increase in cumulative weekly precipitation was significantly associated with a 4–8% increase in incidence of reported WNV infection over the subsequent 2 weeks. Conclusions Warmer temperatures, elevated humidity, and heavy precipitation increased the rate of human WNV infection in the United States independent of season and each others’ effects. PMID:19654911

Effects of Seasonal Weather on Breeding Phenology and Reproductive Success of Alpine Ptarmigan in Colorado

PubMed Central

Wann, Gregory T.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Braun, Clait E.

2016-01-01

Animal populations occurring at high elevations are often assumed to be in peril of extinctions or local extirpations due to elevational-dispersal limitations and thermoregulatory constraints as habitats change and warm. However, long-term monitoring of high-elevation populations is uncommon relative to those occurring at lower elevations, and evidence supporting this assumption is limited. We analyzed 45 years of reproductive data for two Colorado populations of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), an alpine-endemic species with restricted distribution in western North America. Seasonal temperatures measured by the number of growing degree days warmed significantly at our study sites for pre-nesting, nesting, and brood-rearing seasonal periods (mean advance of 8 growing degree days per decade), and both populations advanced their reproductive phenology over the study period based on median hatch dates (median advance of 3.7 and 1.9 days per decade for the northern and southern sites, respectively). Reproductive performance measured by the number of chicks per hen declined significantly at one study site but not the other, and differences between sites may have been due to habitat degradation at one study area. Annual variability in chicks per hen was large at both sites but only weakly related to seasonal weather. An index of precipitation and temperature during the brood-rearing period was the best predictor for reproductive success with warm and dry conditions relating positively to number of chicks per hen. Our results provide evidence for two alpine ptarmigan populations that are remarkably invariant to fluctuations in seasonal weather with respect to reproductive success as measured by number of chicks per hen in the breeding population. These results are surprising given the general perception of alpine animal populations as being highly sensitive to warming temperatures. PMID:27420478

Effects of Seasonal Weather on Breeding Phenology and Reproductive Success of Alpine Ptarmigan in Colorado.

PubMed

Wann, Gregory T; Aldridge, Cameron L; Braun, Clait E

2016-01-01

Animal populations occurring at high elevations are often assumed to be in peril of extinctions or local extirpations due to elevational-dispersal limitations and thermoregulatory constraints as habitats change and warm. However, long-term monitoring of high-elevation populations is uncommon relative to those occurring at lower elevations, and evidence supporting this assumption is limited. We analyzed 45 years of reproductive data for two Colorado populations of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), an alpine-endemic species with restricted distribution in western North America. Seasonal temperatures measured by the number of growing degree days warmed significantly at our study sites for pre-nesting, nesting, and brood-rearing seasonal periods (mean advance of 8 growing degree days per decade), and both populations advanced their reproductive phenology over the study period based on median hatch dates (median advance of 3.7 and 1.9 days per decade for the northern and southern sites, respectively). Reproductive performance measured by the number of chicks per hen declined significantly at one study site but not the other, and differences between sites may have been due to habitat degradation at one study area. Annual variability in chicks per hen was large at both sites but only weakly related to seasonal weather. An index of precipitation and temperature during the brood-rearing period was the best predictor for reproductive success with warm and dry conditions relating positively to number of chicks per hen. Our results provide evidence for two alpine ptarmigan populations that are remarkably invariant to fluctuations in seasonal weather with respect to reproductive success as measured by number of chicks per hen in the breeding population. These results are surprising given the general perception of alpine animal populations as being highly sensitive to warming temperatures.

Effects of seasonal weather on breeding phenology and reproductive success of alpine ptarmigan in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wann, Greg; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Braun, Clait E.

2016-01-01

Animal populations occurring at high elevations are often assumed to be in peril of extinctions or local extirpations due to elevational-dispersal limitations and thermoregulatory constraints as habitats change and warm. However, long-term monitoring of high-elevation populations is uncommon relative to those occurring at lower elevations, and evidence supporting this assumption is limited. We analyzed 45 years of reproductive data for two Colorado populations of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), an alpine-endemic species with restricted distribution in western North America. Seasonal temperatures measured by the number of growing degree days warmed significantly at our study sites for pre-nesting, nesting, and brood-rearing seasonal periods (mean advance of 8 growing degree days per decade), and both populations advanced their reproductive phenology over the study period based on median hatch dates (median advance of 3.7 and 1.9 days per decade for the northern and southern sites, respectively). Reproductive performance measured by the number of chicks per hen declined significantly at one study site but not the other, and differences between sites may have been due to habitat degradation at one study area. Annual variability in chicks per hen was large at both sites but only weakly related to seasonal weather. An index of precipitation and temperature during the brood-rearing period was the best predictor for reproductive success with warm and dry conditions relating positively to number of chicks per hen. Our results provide evidence for two alpine ptarmigan populations that are remarkably invariant to fluctuations in seasonal weather with respect to reproductive success as measured by number of chicks per hen in the breeding population. These results are surprising given the general perception of alpine animal populations as being highly sensitive to warming temperatures.

Weather sensitivity for zoo visitation in Toronto, Canada: a quantitative analysis of historical data.

PubMed

Hewer, Micah J; Gough, William A

2016-11-01

Based on a case study of the Toronto Zoo (Canada), multivariate regression analysis, involving both climatic and social variables, was employed to assess the relationship between daily weather and visitation. Zoo visitation was most sensitive to weather variability during the shoulder season, followed by the off-season and, then, the peak season. Temperature was the most influential weather variable in relation to zoo visitation, followed by precipitation and, then, wind speed. The intensity and direction of the social and climatic variables varied between seasons. Temperatures exceeding 26 °C during the shoulder season and 28 °C during the peak season suggested a behavioural threshold associated with zoo visitation, with conditions becoming too warm for certain segments of the zoo visitor market, causing visitor numbers to decline. Even light amounts of precipitation caused average visitor numbers to decline by nearly 50 %. Increasing wind speeds also demonstrated a negative influence on zoo visitation.

Weather sensitivity for zoo visitation in Toronto, Canada: a quantitative analysis of historical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewer, Micah J.; Gough, William A.

2016-11-01

Based on a case study of the Toronto Zoo (Canada), multivariate regression analysis, involving both climatic and social variables, was employed to assess the relationship between daily weather and visitation. Zoo visitation was most sensitive to weather variability during the shoulder season, followed by the off-season and, then, the peak season. Temperature was the most influential weather variable in relation to zoo visitation, followed by precipitation and, then, wind speed. The intensity and direction of the social and climatic variables varied between seasons. Temperatures exceeding 26 °C during the shoulder season and 28 °C during the peak season suggested a behavioural threshold associated with zoo visitation, with conditions becoming too warm for certain segments of the zoo visitor market, causing visitor numbers to decline. Even light amounts of precipitation caused average visitor numbers to decline by nearly 50 %. Increasing wind speeds also demonstrated a negative influence on zoo visitation.

A spurious warming trend in the NMME equatorial Pacific SST hindcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Chul-Su; Huang, Bohua

2017-06-01

Using seasonal hindcasts of six different models participating in the North American Multimodel Ensemble project, the trend of the predicted sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific for 1982-2014 at each lead month and its temporal evolution with respect to the lead month are investigated for all individual models. Since the coupled models are initialized with the observed ocean, atmosphere, land states from observation-based reanalysis, some of them using their own data assimilation process, one would expect that the observed SST trend is reasonably well captured in their seasonal predictions. However, although the observed SST features a weak-cooling trend for the 33-year period with La Niña-like spatial pattern in the tropical central-eastern Pacific all year round, it is demonstrated that all models having a time-dependent realistic concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) display a warming trend in the equatorial Pacific that amplifies as the lead-time increases. In addition, these models' behaviors are nearly independent of the starting month of the hindcasts although the growth rates of the trend vary with the lead month. This key characteristic of the forecasted SST trend in the equatorial Pacific is also identified in the NCAR CCSM3 hindcasts that have the GHG concentration for a fixed year. This suggests that a global warming forcing may not play a significant role in generating the spurious warming trend of the coupled models' SST hindcasts in the tropical Pacific. This model SST trend in the tropical central-eastern Pacific, which is opposite to the observed one, causes a developing El Niño-like warming bias in the forecasted SST with its peak in boreal winter. Its implications for seasonal prediction are discussed.

Weather Effects on Mobile Social Interactions: A Case Study of Mobile Phone Users in Lisbon, Portugal

PubMed Central

Phithakkitnukoon, Santi; Leong, Tuck W.; Smoreda, Zbigniew; Olivier, Patrick

2012-01-01

The effect of weather on social interactions has been explored through the analysis of a large mobile phone use dataset. Time spent on phone calls, numbers of connected social ties, and tie strength were used as proxies for social interactions; while weather conditions were characterized in terms of temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, and wind speed. Our results are based on the analysis of a full calendar year of data for 22,696 mobile phone users (53.2 million call logs) in Lisbon, Portugal. The results suggest that different weather parameters have correlations to the level and character of social interactions. We found that although weather did not show much influence upon people's average call duration, the likelihood of longer calls was found to increase during periods of colder weather. During periods of weather that were generally considered to be uncomfortable (i.e., very cold/warm, very low/high air pressure, and windy), people were found to be more likely to communicate with fewer social ties. Despite this tendency, we found that people are more likely to maintain their connections with those they have strong ties with much more than those of weak ties. This study sheds new light on the influence of weather conditions on social relationships and how mobile phone data can be used to investigate the influence of environmental factors on social dynamics. PMID:23071523

Weather effects on mobile social interactions: a case study of mobile phone users in Lisbon, Portugal.

PubMed

Phithakkitnukoon, Santi; Leong, Tuck W; Smoreda, Zbigniew; Olivier, Patrick

2012-01-01

The effect of weather on social interactions has been explored through the analysis of a large mobile phone use dataset. Time spent on phone calls, numbers of connected social ties, and tie strength were used as proxies for social interactions; while weather conditions were characterized in terms of temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, and wind speed. Our results are based on the analysis of a full calendar year of data for 22,696 mobile phone users (53.2 million call logs) in Lisbon, Portugal. The results suggest that different weather parameters have correlations to the level and character of social interactions. We found that although weather did not show much influence upon people's average call duration, the likelihood of longer calls was found to increase during periods of colder weather. During periods of weather that were generally considered to be uncomfortable (i.e., very cold/warm, very low/high air pressure, and windy), people were found to be more likely to communicate with fewer social ties. Despite this tendency, we found that people are more likely to maintain their connections with those they have strong ties with much more than those of weak ties. This study sheds new light on the influence of weather conditions on social relationships and how mobile phone data can be used to investigate the influence of environmental factors on social dynamics.

Adult proxy responses to a survey of children's dermal soil contact activities.

PubMed

Wong, E Y; Shirai, J H; Garlock, T J; Kissel, J C

2000-01-01

Contaminated site cleanup decisions may require estimation of dermal exposures to soil. Telephone surveys represent one means of obtaining relevant activity pattern data. The initial Soil Contact Survey (SCS-I), which primarily gathered information on the activities of adults, was conducted in 1996. Data describing adult behaviors have been previously reported. Results from a second Soil Contact Survey (SCS-II), performed in 1998-1999 and focused on children's activity patterns, are reported here. Telephone surveys were used to query a randomly selected sample of U.S. households. A randomly chosen child, under the age of 18 years, was targeted in each responding household having children. Play activities as well as bathing patterns were investigated to quantify total exposure time, defined as activity time plus delay until washing. Of 680 total survey respondents, 500 (73.5%) reported that their child played outdoors on bare dirt or mixed grass and dirt surfaces. Among these "players," the median reported play frequency was 7 days/week in warm weather and 3 days/week in cold weather. Median play duration was 3 h/day in warm weather and 1 h/day in cold weather. Hand washes were reported to occur a median of 4 times per day in both warm and cold weather months. Bath or shower median frequency was seven times per week in both warm and cold weather. Finally, based on clothing choice data gathered in SCS-I, a median of about 37% of total skin surface is estimated to be exposed during young children's warm weather outdoor play.

The Origin of the "Seasons" in Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dikpati, Mausumi; Cally, Paul S.; McIntosh, Scott W.; Heifetz, Eyal

2017-11-01

Powerful `space weather' events caused by solar activity pose serious risks to human health, safety, economic activity and national security. Spikes in deaths due to heart attacks, strokes and other diseases occurred during prolonged power outages. Currently it is hard to prepare for and mitigate the impact of space weather because it is impossible to forecast the solar eruptions that can cause these terrestrial events until they are seen on the Sun. However, as recently reported in Nature, eruptive events like coronal mass ejections and solar flares, are organized into quasi-periodic "seasons", which include enhanced bursts of eruptions for several months, followed by quiet periods. We explored the dynamics of sunspot-producing magnetic fields and discovered for the first time that bursty and quiet seasons, manifested in surface magnetic structures, can be caused by quasi-periodic energy-exchange among magnetic fields, Rossby waves and differential rotation of the solar interior shear-layer (called tachocline). Our results for the first time provide a quantitative physical mechanism for forecasting the strength and duration of bursty seasons several months in advance, which can greatly enhance our ability to warn humans about dangerous solar bursts and prevent damage to satellites and power stations from space weather events.

The Origin of the "Seasons" in Space Weather.

PubMed

Dikpati, Mausumi; Cally, Paul S; McIntosh, Scott W; Heifetz, Eyal

2017-11-07

Powerful 'space weather' events caused by solar activity pose serious risks to human health, safety, economic activity and national security. Spikes in deaths due to heart attacks, strokes and other diseases occurred during prolonged power outages. Currently it is hard to prepare for and mitigate the impact of space weather because it is impossible to forecast the solar eruptions that can cause these terrestrial events until they are seen on the Sun. However, as recently reported in Nature, eruptive events like coronal mass ejections and solar flares, are organized into quasi-periodic "seasons", which include enhanced bursts of eruptions for several months, followed by quiet periods. We explored the dynamics of sunspot-producing magnetic fields and discovered for the first time that bursty and quiet seasons, manifested in surface magnetic structures, can be caused by quasi-periodic energy-exchange among magnetic fields, Rossby waves and differential rotation of the solar interior shear-layer (called tachocline). Our results for the first time provide a quantitative physical mechanism for forecasting the strength and duration of bursty seasons several months in advance, which can greatly enhance our ability to warn humans about dangerous solar bursts and prevent damage to satellites and power stations from space weather events.

Effects of Real-Time NASA Vegetation Data on Model Forecasts of Severe Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Bell, Jordan R.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2012-01-01

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA-EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT started generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States beginning 1 June 2010. A companion poster presentation (Bell et al.) primarily focuses on impact results in an offline configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) for the 2010 warm season, comparing the SPoRT/MODIS GVF dataset to the current operational monthly climatology GVF available within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. This paper/presentation primarily focuses on individual case studies of severe weather events to determine the impacts and possible improvements by using the real-time, high-resolution SPoRT-MODIS GVFs in place of the coarser-resolution NCEP climatological GVFs in model simulations. The NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling system is employed to conduct the sensitivity simulations of individual events. The NU-WRF is an integrated modeling system based on the Advanced Research WRF dynamical core that is designed to represents aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and land processes at satellite-resolved scales in a coupled simulation environment. For this experiment, the coupling between the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and the WRF model is utilized to measure the impacts of the daily SPoRT/MODIS versus the monthly NCEP climatology GVFs. First, a spin-up run of the LIS is integrated for two years using the Noah LSM to ensure that the land surface fields reach an equilibrium state on the 4-km grid mesh used. Next, the spin-up LIS is run in two separate modes beginning on 1 June 2010, one continuing with the climatology GVFs while the

Improved forecasts of winter weather extremes over midlatitudes with extra Arctic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Kazutoshi; Inoue, Jun; Yamazaki, Akira; Kim, Joo-Hong; Maturilli, Marion; Dethloff, Klaus; Hudson, Stephen R.; Granskog, Mats A.

2017-02-01

Recent cold winter extremes over Eurasia and North America have been considered to be a consequence of a warming Arctic. More accurate weather forecasts are required to reduce human and socioeconomic damages associated with severe winters. However, the sparse observing network over the Arctic brings errors in initializing a weather prediction model, which might impact accuracy of prediction results at midlatitudes. Here we show that additional Arctic radiosonde observations from the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition (N-ICE2015) drifting ice camps and existing land stations during winter improved forecast skill and reduced uncertainties of weather extremes at midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. For two winter storms over East Asia and North America in February 2015, ensemble forecast experiments were performed with initial conditions taken from an ensemble atmospheric reanalysis in which the observation data were assimilated. The observations reduced errors in initial conditions in the upper troposphere over the Arctic region, yielding more precise prediction of the locations and strengths of upper troughs and surface synoptic disturbances. Errors and uncertainties of predicted upper troughs at midlatitudes would be brought with upper level high potential vorticity (PV) intruding southward from the observed Arctic region. This is because the PV contained a "signal" of the additional Arctic observations as it moved along an isentropic surface. This suggests that a coordinated sustainable Arctic observing network would be effective not only for regional weather services but also for reducing weather risks in locations distant from the Arctic.

Testing efficacy of monthly forecast application in agrometeorology: Winter wheat phenology dynamic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lalic, B.; Jankovic, D.; Dekic, Lj; Eitzinger, J.; Firanj Sremac, A.

2017-02-01

Use of monthly weather forecast as input meteorological data for agrometeorological forecasting, crop modelling and plant protection can foster promising applications in agricultural production. Operational use of monthly or seasonal weather forecast can help farmers to optimize field operations (fertilizing, irrigation) and protection measures against plant diseases and pests by taking full advantage of monthly forecast information in predicting plant development, pest and disease risks and yield potentials few weeks in advance. It can help producers to obtain stable or higher yield with the same inputs and to minimise losses caused by weather. In Central and South-Eastern Europe ongoing climate change lead to shifts of crops phenology dynamics (i.e. in Serbia 4-8 weeks earlier in 2016 than in previous years) and brings this subject in the front of agronomy science and practice. Objective of this study is to test efficacy of monthly forecast in predicting phenology dynamics of different winter wheat varieties, using phenological model developed by Forecasting and Warning Service of Serbia in plant protection. For that purpose, historical monthly forecast for four months (March 1, 2005 - June 30, 2005) was assimilated from ECMWF MARS archive for 50 ensemble members and control run. Impact of different agroecological conditions is tested by using observed and forecasted data for two locations - Rimski Sancevi (Serbia) and Groß-Enzersdorf (Austria).

Thyroid storm and warm autoimmune hemolytic anemia.

PubMed

Moore, Joseph A; Gliga, Louise; Nagalla, Srikanth

2017-08-01

Graves' disease is often associated with other autoimmune disorders, including rare associations with autoimmune hemolytic anemia (AIHA). We describe a unique presentation of thyroid storm and warm AIHA diagnosed concurrently in a young female with hyperthyroidism. The patient presented with nausea, vomiting, diarrhea and altered mental status. Laboratory studies revealed hemoglobin 3.9g/dL, platelets 171×10 9 L -1 , haptoglobin <5mg/dL, reticulocytosis, and positive direct antiglobulin test (IgG, C3d, warm). Additional workup revealed serum thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) <0.01μIU/mL and serum free-T4 (FT4) level 7.8ng/dL. Our patient was diagnosed with concurrent thyroid storm and warm AIHA. She was started on glucocorticoids to treat both warm AIHA and thyroid storm, as well as antithyroid medications, propranolol and folic acid. Due to profound anemia and hemodynamic instability, the patient was transfused two units of uncrossmatched packed red blood cells slowly and tolerated this well. She was discharged on methimazole as well as a prolonged prednisone taper, and achieved complete resolution of the thyrotoxicosis and anemia at one month. Hyperthyroidism can affect all three blood cell lineages of the hematopoietic system. Anemia can be seen in 10-20% of patients with thyrotoxicosis. Several autoimmune processes can lead to anemia in Graves' disease, including pernicious anemia, celiac disease, and warm AIHA. This case illustrates a rarely described presentation of a patient with Graves' disease presenting with concurrent thyroid storm and warm AIHA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intra- and Interseasonal Autoregressive Prediction of Dengue Outbreaks Using Local Weather and Regional Climate for a Tropical Environment in Colombia

PubMed Central

Eastin, Matthew D.; Delmelle, Eric; Casas, Irene; Wexler, Joshua; Self, Cameron

2014-01-01

Dengue fever transmission results from complex interactions between the virus, human hosts, and mosquito vectors—all of which are influenced by environmental factors. Predictive models of dengue incidence rate, based on local weather and regional climate parameters, could benefit disease mitigation efforts. Time series of epidemiological and meteorological data for the urban environment of Cali, Colombia are analyzed from January of 2000 to December of 2011. Significant dengue outbreaks generally occur during warm-dry periods with extreme daily temperatures confined between 18°C and 32°C—the optimal range for mosquito survival and viral transmission. Two environment-based, multivariate, autoregressive forecast models are developed that allow dengue outbreaks to be anticipated from 2 weeks to 6 months in advance. These models have the potential to enhance existing dengue early warning systems, ultimately supporting public health decisions on the timing and scale of vector control efforts. PMID:24957546

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Park, Hoonyoung; Piao, Shilong; Kim, Jinwon; Feng, Song

2017-09-01

Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961-2010. Before the early 1980s (1961-1983), change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984-2010), the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

Convective Weather Avoidance with Uncertain Weather Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karahan, Sinan; Windhorst, Robert D.

2009-01-01

Convective weather events have a disruptive impact on air traffic both in terminal area and in en-route airspaces. In order to make sure that the national air transportation system is safe and efficient, it is essential to respond to convective weather events effectively. Traffic flow control initiatives in response to convective weather include ground delay, airborne delay, miles-in-trail restrictions as well as tactical and strategic rerouting. The rerouting initiatives can potentially increase traffic density and complexity in regions neighboring the convective weather activity. There is a need to perform rerouting in an intelligent and efficient way such that the disruptive effects of rerouting are minimized. An important area of research is to study the interaction of in-flight rerouting with traffic congestion or complexity and developing methods that quantitatively measure this interaction. Furthermore, it is necessary to find rerouting solutions that account for uncertainties in weather forecasts. These are important steps toward managing complexity during rerouting operations, and the paper is motivated by these research questions. An automated system is developed for rerouting air traffic in order to avoid convective weather regions during the 20- minute - 2-hour time horizon. Such a system is envisioned to work in concert with separation assurance (0 - 20-minute time horizon), and longer term air traffic management (2-hours and beyond) to provide a more comprehensive solution to complexity and safety management. In this study, weather is dynamic and uncertain; it is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. Algorithms are implemented in an air traffic simulation environment to support the research study. The algorithms used are deterministic but periodically revise reroutes to account for weather forecast updates. In contrast to previous studies, in this study convective weather is represented as regions of airspace that pilots

Impact of warm winters on microbial growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birgander, Johanna; Rousk, Johannes; Axel Olsson, Pål

2014-05-01

Growth of soil bacteria has an asymmetrical response to higher temperature with a gradual increase with increasing temperatures until an optimum after which a steep decline occurs. In laboratory studies it has been shown that by exposing a soil bacterial community to a temperature above the community's optimum temperature for two months, the bacterial community grows warm-adapted, and the optimum temperature of bacterial growth shifts towards higher temperatures. This result suggests a change in the intrinsic temperature dependence of bacterial growth, as temperature influenced the bacterial growth even though all other factors were kept constant. An intrinsic temperature dependence could be explained by either a change in the bacterial community composition, exchanging less tolerant bacteria towards more tolerant ones, or it could be due to adaptation within the bacteria present. No matter what the shift in temperature tolerance is due to, the shift could have ecosystem scale implications, as winters in northern Europe are getting warmer. To address the question of how microbes and plants are affected by warmer winters, a winter-warming experiment was established in a South Swedish grassland. Results suggest a positive response in microbial growth rate in plots where winter soil temperatures were around 6 °C above ambient. Both bacterial and fungal growth (leucine incorporation, and acetate into ergosterol incorporation, respectively) appeared stimulated, and there are two candidate explanations for these results. Either (i) warming directly influence microbial communities by modulating their temperature adaptation, or (ii) warming indirectly affected the microbial communities via temperature induced changes in bacterial growth conditions. The first explanation is in accordance with what has been shown in laboratory conditions (explained above), where the differences in the intrinsic temperature relationships were examined. To test this explanation the

A systematic evaluation of the lagged effects of spatiotemporally relative surface weather types on wintertime cardiovascular-related mortality across 19 US cities.

PubMed

Lee, Cameron C

2015-11-01

Previous research using varying methods has shown that the day-to-day variability in cardiovascular (CV)-related mortality is correlated with a number of different meteorological variables, though these relationships can vary geographically. This research systematically examines the relationship between anomalous winter CV-related mortality and geographically and seasonally relative multivariate surface weather types derived from a recently developed gridded weather typing classification (GWTC) for cities in varying climate regions of the United States of America (USA). Results indicate that for all locations examined, during winter, a dry and cool (DC) weather type is significantly related to increased CV-related mortality, especially in the 2 weeks immediately after it occurs, with no apparent mortality displacement. Across the USA as a whole, the peak of this relationship is a 4.1% increase in CV-related mortality at a lag of 3 days. Spike days in CV-related mortality show similar trends, being over 50% more likely 2 to 4 days after the DC type occurs. A humid and warm (HW) weather type exhibited a significant and opposite relationship to that of DC. While these results for DC and HW were statistically significant at every location examined, the magnitudes were larger in the warmer locations. Among other weather types, Warm Front Passages (WFP) were also related to significant increases in CV-related mortality, especially 1 day after they occurred. Though this link was much more varied geographically than results found with DC or HW, it suggests that sequences of multiple DC days followed by WFP may result in increased CV-related mortality.

A systematic evaluation of the lagged effects of spatiotemporally relative surface weather types on wintertime cardiovascular-related mortality across 19 US cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Cameron C.

2015-11-01

Previous research using varying methods has shown that the day-to-day variability in cardiovascular (CV)-related mortality is correlated with a number of different meteorological variables, though these relationships can vary geographically. This research systematically examines the relationship between anomalous winter CV-related mortality and geographically and seasonally relative multivariate surface weather types derived from a recently developed gridded weather typing classification (GWTC) for cities in varying climate regions of the United States of America (USA). Results indicate that for all locations examined, during winter, a dry and cool (DC) weather type is significantly related to increased CV-related mortality, especially in the 2 weeks immediately after it occurs, with no apparent mortality displacement. Across the USA as a whole, the peak of this relationship is a 4.1% increase in CV-related mortality at a lag of 3 days. Spike days in CV-related mortality show similar trends, being over 50% more likely 2 to 4 days after the DC type occurs. A humid and warm (HW) weather type exhibited a significant and opposite relationship to that of DC. While these results for DC and HW were statistically significant at every location examined, the magnitudes were larger in the warmer locations. Among other weather types, Warm Front Passages (WFP) were also related to significant increases in CV-related mortality, especially 1 day after they occurred. Though this link was much more varied geographically than results found with DC or HW, it suggests that sequences of multiple DC days followed by WFP may result in increased CV-related mortality.

A climatology of weather-driven mixing events in a dimictic Arctic lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooke, Melanie; MacIntyre, Sally; Kushner, Paul

2014-05-01

For dimictic and polymictic Arctic lakes, mixing during the ice-free season is primarily controlled by the passage of cold fronts and their associated strong winds. At Toolik Lake, a Long Term Ecological Research site in Alaska, year-to-year variability in lake stability and mixing frequency has been considerable over the past 14 summers. Mixing is important for lake productivity, distributing dissolved gases and nutrients through the water column. Summertime Arctic warming might be expected to stabilize Arctic lakes such as Toolik, but the control of individual weather events on a season's mixing characteristics complicates the ability to predict trends in stability and mixing. With this motivation, this work aims to characterize weather systems that are conducive to mixing at Toolik. High resolution lake and meteorological data from the site were used to characterize mixing while atmospheric reanalysis data were used to describe the weather systems. Mixing events were first identified using an automated algorithm based on Lake Number and lake thermal structure. The algorithm identified mixing events that are separated by at least the timescale of weather systems, so that any given weather event should cause at most one mixing event. Because low Lake Number conditions typically highlight strong wind events, temperature profile data over time were used to identify thermocline deepening as a complementary indicator for mixing. Mixing events were found to be most often characterized by simultaneous occurrence of a low Lake Number condition and thermocline deepening. Once mixing events were identified, they were classified according to their corresponding atmospheric structures. Two primary weather system types with distinct characteristics were determined to be associated with mixing. The analysis suggests that changing the occurrence of these weather system types might change the summertime thermal structure of Toolik Lake, and by extension other lakes in the region.

Using 311 Data as a Proxy For Weather Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, X.

2017-12-01

According to the World Bank, two-thirds of the global population will lives in urban areas by 2050. The impacts of major weather events have sometimes led to huge economic losses in urban areas and impacts are projected to increase as cities grow. Using remote sensing to study weather in urban areas is challenge because urban areas are small relative to the resolutions of many satellite products. In addition, most human activity is indoors and underground, which neither satellites nor other remote sensing instruments can measure. As a substitute for these instruments, there are datasets that can potentially provide information about the local impacts of the weather. Many cities use the U.S. Federal Communications Commision code for non-emergencies (311) as a hotline for residents to report municipal issues. For example, New York City's 311 dataset contains over a 100 million reports, many of which are potentially related to the impacts of weather events. To isolate the impacts, we aggregate over space and time to reduce the noise in the data and normalize the data to account for uneven distributions of people and complaints. We then compare the potentially weather related 311 reports with global monthly summaries of weather observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) to analyze the impact of weather events as reported by the residents of NYC.

Modeling and projection of dengue fever cases in Guangzhou based on variation of weather factors.

PubMed

Li, Chenlu; Wang, Xiaofeng; Wu, Xiaoxu; Liu, Jianing; Ji, Duoying; Du, Juan

2017-12-15

Dengue fever is one of the most serious vector-borne infectious diseases, especially in Guangzhou, China. Dengue viruses and their vectors Aedes albopictus are sensitive to climate change primarily in relation to weather factors. Previous research has mainly focused on identifying the relationship between climate factors and dengue cases, or developing dengue case models with some non-climate factors. However, there has been little research addressing the modeling and projection of dengue cases only from the perspective of climate change. This study considered this topic using long time series data (1998-2014). First, sensitive weather factors were identified through meta-analysis that included literature review screening, lagged analysis, and collinear analysis. Then, key factors that included monthly average temperature at a lag of two months, and monthly average relative humidity and monthly average precipitation at lags of three months were determined. Second, time series Poisson analysis was used with the generalized additive model approach to develop a dengue model based on key weather factors for January 1998 to December 2012. Data from January 2013 to July 2014 were used to validate that the model was reliable and reasonable. Finally, future weather data (January 2020 to December 2070) were input into the model to project the occurrence of dengue cases under different climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Longer time series analysis and scientifically selected weather variables were used to develop a dengue model to ensure reliability. The projections suggested that seasonal disease control (especially in summer and fall) and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions could help reduce the incidence of dengue fever. The results of this study hope to provide a scientifically theoretical basis for the prevention and control of dengue fever in Guangzhou. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

TRMM-observed summer warm rain over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean: Characteristics and regional differences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Fang; Fu, Yunfei

2016-06-01

Based on the merged measurements from the TRMM Precipitation Radar and Visible and Infrared Scanner, refined characteristics (intensity, frequency, vertical structure, and diurnal variation) and regional differences of the warm rain over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40ffiS-40ffiN, 120ffiE-70ffiW) in boreal summer are investigated for the period 1998-2012. The results reveal that three warm rain types (phased, pure, and mixed) exist over these regions. The phased warm rain, which occurs during the developing or declining stage of precipitation weather systems, is located over the central to western Intertropical Convergence Zone, South Pacific Convergence Zone, and Northwest Pacific. Its occurrence frequency peaks at midnight and minimizes during daytime with a 5.5-km maximum echo top. The frequency of this warm rain type is about 2.2%, and it contributes to 40% of the regional total rainfall. The pure warm rain is characterized by typical stable precipitation with an echo top lower than 4 km, and mostly occurs in Southeast Pacific. Although its frequency is less than 1.3%, this type of warm rain accounts for 95% of the regional total rainfall. Its occurrence peaks before dawn and it usually disappears in the afternoon. For the mixed warm rain, some may develop into deep convective precipitation, while most are similar to those of the pure type. The mixed warm rain is mainly located over the ocean east of Hawaii. Its frequency is 1.2%, but this type of warm rain could contribute to 80% of the regional total rainfall. The results also uncover that the mixed and pure types occur over the regions where SST ranges from 295 to 299 K, accompanied by relatively strong downdrafts at 500 hPa. Both the mixed and pure warm rains happen in a more unstable atmosphere, compared with the phased warm rain.

Severe Weather

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forde, Evan B.

2004-01-01

Educating the public about safety issues related to severe weather is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) mission. This article deals with a poster entitled, "Severe Weather," that has been created by NOAA to help educate the public about hazardous weather conditions. The four types of severe weather highlighted in…

Enhanced Continental Weathering on Antarctica During the Mid Miocene Climatic Optima Based on Pb Isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, E. E.; Fenn, C.; Basak, C.

2012-12-01

Feedbacks between climate and continental weathering can be monitored over geologic time scales using Pb isotopes preserved in marine sediments. During chemical weathering, radiogenic Pb is preferentially released to the dissolved phase, producing weathering solutions with more radiogenic isotopic values than the parent rock. The offset between the composition of the solution and rock tend to increase with the intensity of incongruent weathering (von Blanckenburg and Nägler, 2001; Harlavan and Erel, 2002). The seawater isotopic signal extracted from Fe-Mn oxides on bulk marine sediments is interpreted to represent the composition of local dissolved weathering inputs. For example, increasing seawater Pb isotopes observed during the most recent deglaciation are believed to reflect enhanced weathering of newly exposed glacial rock flour under warm conditions (Foster and Vance, 2006; Kurzweil et al., 2010). For this study we evaluated Nd and Pb isotopes from both the seawater fraction (extracted from Fe-Mn oxides) and parent rock (the detrital fraction of marine sediment) during the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO) and subsequent cooling and East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) expansion (18 to 8 Ma) from Ocean Drilling Program site 744 on Kerguelen Plateau (2300 m; Indian sector) and sites 689 and 690 on Maud Rise (2080 m and 2914 m; Atlantic sector). The absolute value of seawater 206Pb/204Pb and separation between values for seawater and detrital fractions increased during the MMCO, suggesting enhanced weathering in proglacial and deglaciated areas exposed by ice sheet meltback during the warm interval. During the ensuing cooling, seawater values and the offset between the two archives decreased. Similar trends are displayed by 207Pb/204Pb and 208Pb/204Pb, although 207Pb/204Pb detrital values tend to be higher than seawater values. Reconstructions of atmospheric pCO2 in the Miocene have suggested both 1) decoupling between pCO2 and climate with consistently low

Monthly means of selected climate variables for 1985 - 1989

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, S.; Wu, C.-Y.; Zero, J.; Schemm, J.-K.; Park, C.-K.; Suarez, M.

1992-01-01

Meteorologists are accustomed to viewing instantaneous weather maps, since these contain the most relevant information for the task of producing short-range weather forecasts. Climatologists, on the other hand, tend to deal with long-term means, which portray the average climate. The recent emphasis on dynamical extended-range forecasting and, in particular measuring and predicting short term climate change makes it important that we become accustomed to looking at variations on monthly and longer time scales. A convenient toll for researchers to familiarize themselves with the variability which occurs in selected parameters on these time scales is provided. The format of the document was chosen to help facilitate the intercomparison of various parameters and highlight the year-to-year variability in monthly means.

Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Warm Season Deep Convective Initiation Modeling Experiment using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Wood, Lance; Zavodsky, Brad; Case, Jon; Molthan, Andrew

2012-01-01

The initiation of deep convection during the warm season is a forecast challenge in the relative high instability and low wind shear environment of the U.S. Deep South. Despite improved knowledge of the character of well known mesoscale features such as local sea-, bay- and land-breezes, observations show the evolution of these features fall well short in fully describing the location of first initiates. A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center was undertaken during the 2012 warm season to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System. The NASA products were: a 4-km Land Information System data, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with a 9 km outer grid spacing and a 3 km inner nest spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the forecast timing and location of the first initiates, with a focus on the impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, D. L.

2009-12-01

freezing nucleation dominates). Weather modification research has developed ice nucleating substances that are extremely effective at these cold temperatures, are non-toxic and are relatively inexpensive. The seeding material could be released in both clear and cloudy conditions to build up a background concentration of efficient ice nuclei so that non-contrail cirrus will experience these nuclei and grow larger ice crystals. Flight corridors are denser in the high- and mid-latitudes where global warming is more severe. A risk with any geoengineering experiment is that it could affect climate in unforeseen ways, causing more harm than good. Since seeding aerosol residence times in the troposphere are 1-2 weeks, the climate might return back to its normal state within a few months after stopping the geoengineering. A drawback to this approach is that it would not stop ocean acidification. It may not have many of the draw-backs that stratospheric injection of sulfur species has, such as ozone destruction, decreased solar radiation possibly altering the hydrological cycle with more frequent droughts, greater expense, the creation of a white sky and less solar energy. In addition, modeling studies indicate it would take at least 3 years for the climate system to return to “normal” upon termination of stratospheric geoengineering.

Arctic Warming Signals from Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.

2005-01-01

Global warming signals are expected to be amplified in the Arctic primarily because of ice-albedo feedback associated with the high reflectivity of ice and snow that blankets much of the region. The Arctic had been a poorly explored territory basically because of its general inaccessibility on account of extremely harsh weather conditions and the dominant presence of thick perennial ice in the region. The advent of satellite remote sensing systems since the 1960s, however, enabled the acquisition of synoptic data that depict in good spatial detail the temporal changes of many Arctic surface parameters. Among the surface parameters that have been studied using space based systems are surface temperature, sea ice concentration, snow cover, surface albedo and phytoplankton concentration. Associated atmospheric parameters, such as cloud cover, temperature profile, ozone concentration, and aerosol have also been derived. Recent observational and phenomenological studies have indeed revealed progressively changing conditions in the Arctic during the last few decades (e g , Walsh et al. 1996; Serreze et al 2000; Comiso and Parkinson 2004). The changes included declines in the extent and area of surfaces covered by sea ice and snow, increases in melt area over the Greenland ice sheets, thawing of the permafrost, warming in the troposphere, and retreat of the glaciers. These observations are consistent with the observed global warming that has been associated with the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Karl and Trenberth 2003) and confirmed by modeling studies (Holland and Bitz, 2003). The Arctic system, however, is still not well understood complicated by a largely fluctuating wind circulation and atmospheric conditions (Proshutinsky and Johnson 1997) and controlled by what is now known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which provides a measure of the strength of atmospheric activities in the region (Thompson and Wallace 1998). Meanwhile, the

Weather Variability, Tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone Region, Australia

PubMed Central

Naish, Suchithra; Hu, Wenbiao; Nicholls, Neville; Mackenzie, John S.; McMichael, Anthony J.; Dale, Pat; Tong, Shilu

2006-01-01

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention. PMID:16675420

Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest virus disease in the Gladstone region, Australia.

PubMed

Naish, Suchithra; Hu, Wenbiao; Nicholls, Neville; Mackenzie, John S; McMichael, Anthony J; Dale, Pat; Tong, Shilu

2006-05-01

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (b=0.15, p-value<0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (b=-1.03, p-value=0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.

A model study of warming-induced phosphorus-oxygen feedbacks in open-ocean oxygen minimum zones on millennial timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niemeyer, Daniela; Kemena, Tronje P.; Meissner, Katrin J.; Oschlies, Andreas

2017-05-01

Observations indicate an expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) over the past 50 years, likely related to ongoing deoxygenation caused by reduced oxygen solubility, changes in stratification and circulation, and a potential acceleration of organic matter turnover in a warming climate. The overall area of ocean sediments that are in direct contact with low-oxygen bottom waters also increases with expanding OMZs. This leads to a release of phosphorus from ocean sediments. If anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions continue unabated, higher temperatures will cause enhanced weathering on land, which, in turn, will increase the phosphorus and alkalinity fluxes into the ocean and therefore raise the ocean's phosphorus inventory even further. A higher availability of phosphorus enhances biological production, remineralisation and oxygen consumption, and might therefore lead to further expansions of OMZs, representing a positive feedback. A negative feedback arises from the enhanced productivity-induced drawdown of carbon and also increased uptake of CO2 due to weathering-induced alkalinity input. This feedback leads to a decrease in atmospheric CO2 and weathering rates. Here, we quantify these two competing feedbacks on millennial timescales for a high CO2 emission scenario. Using the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System Climate Model of intermediate complexity, our model results suggest that the positive benthic phosphorus release feedback has only a minor impact on the size of OMZs in the next 1000 years. The increase in the marine phosphorus inventory under assumed business-as-usual global warming conditions originates, on millennial timescales, almost exclusively (> 80 %) from the input via terrestrial weathering and causes a 4- to 5-fold expansion of the suboxic water volume in the model.

Tropical precipitation extremes: Response to SST-induced warming in aquaplanet simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Ritthik; Bordoni, Simona; Teixeira, João.

2017-04-01

Scaling of tropical precipitation extremes in response to warming is studied in aquaplanet experiments using the global Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We show how the scaling of precipitation extremes is highly sensitive to spatial and temporal averaging: while instantaneous grid point extreme precipitation scales more strongly than the percentage increase (˜7% K-1) predicted by the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship, extremes for zonally and temporally averaged precipitation follow a slight sub-CC scaling, in agreement with results from Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models. The scaling depends crucially on the employed convection parameterization. This is particularly true when grid point instantaneous extremes are considered. These results highlight how understanding the response of precipitation extremes to warming requires consideration of dynamic changes in addition to the thermodynamic response. Changes in grid-scale precipitation, unlike those in convective-scale precipitation, scale linearly with the resolved flow. Hence, dynamic changes include changes in both large-scale and convective-scale motions.

Impact of Probabilistic Weather on Flight Routing Decisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheth, Kapil; Sridhar, Banavar; Mulfinger, Daniel

2006-01-01

Flight delays in the United States have been found to increase year after year, along with the increase in air traffic. During the four-month period from May through August of 2005, weather related delays accounted for roughly 70% of all reported delays, The current weather prediction in tactical (within 2 hours) timeframe is at manageable levels, however, the state of forecasting weather for strategic (2-6 hours) timeframe is still not dependable for long-term planning. In the absence of reliable severe weather forecasts, the decision-making for flights longer than two hours is challenging. This paper deals with an approach of using probabilistic weather prediction for Traffic Flow Management use, and a general method using this prediction for estimating expected values of flight length and delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). The current state-of-the-art convective weather forecasting is employed to aid the decision makers in arriving at decisions for traffic flow and flight planing. The six-agency effort working on the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) have considered weather-assimilated decision-making as one of the principal foci out of a list of eight. The weather Integrated Product Team has considered integrated weather information and improved aviation weather forecasts as two of the main efforts (Ref. 1, 2). Recently, research has focused on the concept of operations for strategic traffic flow management (Ref. 3) and how weather data can be integrated for improved decision-making for efficient traffic management initiatives (Ref. 4, 5). An overview of the weather data needs and benefits of various participants in the air traffic system along with available products can be found in Ref. 6. Previous work related to use of weather data in identifying and categorizing pilot intrusions into severe weather regions (Ref. 7, 8) has demonstrated a need for better forecasting in the strategic planning timeframes and moving towards a

Recent and future warm extreme events and high-mountain slope stability.

PubMed

Huggel, C; Salzmann, N; Allen, S; Caplan-Auerbach, J; Fischer, L; Haeberli, W; Larsen, C; Schneider, D; Wessels, R

2010-05-28

The number of large slope failures in some high-mountain regions such as the European Alps has increased during the past two to three decades. There is concern that recent climate change is driving this increase in slope failures, thus possibly further exacerbating the hazard in the future. Although the effects of a gradual temperature rise on glaciers and permafrost have been extensively studied, the impacts of short-term, unusually warm temperature increases on slope stability in high mountains remain largely unexplored. We describe several large slope failures in rock and ice in recent years in Alaska, New Zealand and the European Alps, and analyse weather patterns in the days and weeks before the failures. Although we did not find one general temperature pattern, all the failures were preceded by unusually warm periods; some happened immediately after temperatures suddenly dropped to freezing. We assessed the frequency of warm extremes in the future by analysing eight regional climate models from the recently completed European Union programme ENSEMBLES for the central Swiss Alps. The models show an increase in the higher frequency of high-temperature events for the period 2001-2050 compared with a 1951-2000 reference period. Warm events lasting 5, 10 and 30 days are projected to increase by about 1.5-4 times by 2050 and in some models by up to 10 times. Warm extremes can trigger large landslides in temperature-sensitive high mountains by enhancing the production of water by melt of snow and ice, and by rapid thaw. Although these processes reduce slope strength, they must be considered within the local geological, glaciological and topographic context of a slope.

[The short-term effects of air pollution on mortality. The results of the EMECAM project in Saragossa, 1991-1995. Estudio Multicéntrico Español sobre la Relación entre la Contaminación Atmosférica y la Mortalidad].

PubMed

Arribas Monzón, F; Alcalá Nalvaiz, T; Abad Díez, J M; Navarro Elipe, M; Martos Jiménez, M del C; Rabanaque Hernández, M J; Zapatero Molinera, S; Muniesa Casamayor, E

1999-01-01

To assess the short-term impact of pollution on the respiratory death rate in the city of Saragossa throughout the 1991-1995 period and to pinpoint whether any differences exists in terms of age and time of the year. The relationship of daily concentrations of smog and SO2 to the daily deaths due to respiratory diseases (CIE-9 460-486) and chronic lung blockage disease and similar EPOC-EA (490-496) was analyzed using Poisson models in keeping with the EMECAM procedure. Possible differences in the impact on those below and over age 70 and according to the six-month period in question were researched. Relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence, intervals (CI95%) WERE CALCULATED FOR 10 micrograms/m3 rises in pollutant. A relationship was found to exist between the respiratory and smog death rate (RR 1.028 CI95% 1.006-1051), the highest risk being during the six-months period of warm weather. For those individuals over age 70, the relationship remained the same throughout this six-month period and was negative for those individuals under age 70. The RR's for the death rate based on EPOC-EA were, overall, 1.038 (CI95% 1.002-1075) and of 1.068 (CI95%: 1.004-1.137) for the six-month period of warm weather. The SO2 pollution showed a positive relationship to the respiratory death rate for the warm period for all ages, RR 1.093 (CI95%: 1.006-1.187) and for those under age 70 (RR 1.240 CI95%: 1.028-1.496). The impact was not conclusive for the cases of pneumonia. Low levels of air pollution can have a significant impact on the respiratory death rate, especially among the elderly and during the six-month period of warm weather.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-05-12

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-01-01

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical–ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean−atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes. PMID:25902494

Satellite Sounder Data Assimilation for Improving Alaska Region Weather Forecast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Jiang; Stevens, E.; Zhang, X.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Heinrichs, T.; Broderson, D.

2014-01-01

A case study and monthly statistical analysis using sounder data assimilation to improve the Alaska regional weather forecast model are presented. Weather forecast in Alaska faces challenges as well as opportunities. Alaska has a large land with multiple types of topography and coastal area. Weather forecast models must be finely tuned in order to accurately predict weather in Alaska. Being in the high-latitudes provides Alaska greater coverage of polar orbiting satellites for integration into forecasting models than the lower 48. Forecasting marine low stratus clouds is critical to the Alaska aviation and oil industry and is the current focus of the case study. NASA AIRS/CrIS sounder profiles data are used to do data assimilation for the Alaska regional weather forecast model to improve Arctic marine stratus clouds forecast. Choosing physical options for the WRF model is discussed. Preprocess of AIRS/CrIS sounder data for data assimilation is described. Local observation data, satellite data, and global data assimilation data are used to verify and/or evaluate the forecast results by the MET tools Model Evaluation Tools (MET).

Experimental Whole-Ecosystem Warming Alters Vegetation Phenology in a Boreal Spruce Bog: Initial Results from the SPRUCE Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, A. D.

2016-12-01

Phenology is one of the most robust indicators of the biological impacts of global change. However, the response of phenology to future environmental conditions still remains highly uncertain because of the challenges associated with conducting realistic manipulative experiments. At the SPRUCE (Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change) experiment in the north-central United States, experimental temperature (0 to +9°C above ambient) and CO2 (ambient and elevated) treatments are being applied to mature, and intact, Picea mariana-Sphagnum spp. bog communities in their native habitat through the use of ten large (approximately 12 m wide, 10 m high) open-topped enclosures. We are tracking vegetation green-up and senescence in these chambers using repeat digital photography. Within each chamber, images are recorded every 30 minutes and uploaded to PhenoCam (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu), where processed to yield quantitative measures of canopy color. These data are complemented by on-the-ground phenological data collected by human observers. Air warming treatments at SPRUCE began in August 2015. We observed a delay in senescence during autumn 2015 (2-5 days per degree of warming) and an advance in onset during spring 2016 (1-4 days per degree of warming). These patterns are robust across species and methods of phenological observation (i.e. camera-based vs. human observer). And, our results show very little evidence for photoperiod acting as a constraint on the response to warming. Early spring onset and consequent loss of frost hardiness in the warmest chambers proved disadvantageous when a brief period of extreme cold (to -12°C in the control chambers, to -3°C in the +9°C chambers) followed a month of generally mild weather. Foliage mortality for both Larix and Picea was immediate and severe, although both species subsequently re-flushed. These results give support for the hypothesis that warming may enhance the likelihood of spring frost

Extreme Weather Risk Assessment: The Case of Jiquilisco, El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melendez, Karla; Ceppi, Claudia; Molero, Juanjo; Rios Insua, David

2014-05-01

All major climate models predict increases in both global and regional mean temperatures throughout this century, under different scenarios concerning future trends in population growth or economic and technological development. This consistency of results across models has strengthened the evidence about global warming. Despite the convincing facts and findings of climate researchers, there is still a great deal of skepticism around climate change. There is somewhat less consensus about some of the consequences of climate change, for example in reference to extreme weather changes, in particular as regards more local scales. However, such changes seem to have already considerable impact in many regions across the world in terms of lives, economic losses, and required changes in lifestyles. This may demand appropriate policy responses both at national and local levels. Our work provides a framework for extreme weather multithreat risk management, based on probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This may be useful in comparing the effectiveness of different actions to manage risks and inform judgment concerning the appropriate resource allocation to mitigate the risks. The methodology has been applied to the case study of the "El Marillo II" community, located in the municipality of Jiquilisco in El Salvador. There, the main problem related with extreme weather conditions are the frequent floods caused by rainfall, hurricanes , and water increases in the Lempa river nearby located. However, droughts are also very relevant. Based on several sources like SNET, newspapers, field visits to the region and interviews, we have built a detailed database that comprises extreme weather daily data from January 1971 until December 2011. Forecasting models for floods and droughts were built suggesting the need to properly manage the risks. We subsequently obtained the optimal portfolio of countermeasures, given the budget constraints. KEYWORDS: CLIMATE CHANGE, EXTREME WEATHER, RISK

A geochemical record of the link between chemical weathering and the East Asian summer monsoon during the late Holocene preserved in lacustrine sediments from Poyang Lake, central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chao; Wei, Gangjian; Li, Wuxian; Liu, Ying

2018-04-01

This paper presents relatively high-resolution geochemical records spanning the past 4000 cal yr BP obtained from the lacustrine sediments of Poyang Lake in central China. The variations in the intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are traced using the K/Na, Ti/Na, Al/K, kaolinite/illite and clay/feldspar ratios, together with the chemical index of alteration (CIA), as indicators of chemical weathering. During the last 4000 years, the proxy records of chemical weathering from Poyang Lake exhibit an overall enhanced trend, consistent with regional hydrological changes in previous independent records. Further comparisons and analyses demonstrate that regional moisture variations in central China is inversely correlated with the EASM intensity, with weak EASM generating high precipitation in central China. Our data reveal three intervals of dramatically dry climatic conditions (i.e., ca. 4000-3200 cal yr BP, ca. 2800-2400 cal yr BP, and ca. 500-200 cal yr BP). A period of weak chemical weathering, related to cold and dry climatic conditions, occurred during the Little Ice Age (LIA), whereas more intense chemical weathering, reflecting warm and humid climatic conditions, was recorded during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). Besides, an intensification of chemical weathering in Poyang Lake during the late Holocene agrees well with strong ENSO activity, suggesting that moisture variations in central China may be predominantly driven by ENSO variability.

Estimating the Exceedance Probability of the Reservoir Inflow Based on the Long-Term Weather Outlooks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Q. Z.; Hsu, S. Y.; Li, M. H.

2016-12-01

The long-term streamflow prediction is important not only to estimate water-storage of a reservoir but also to the surface water intakes, which supply people's livelihood, agriculture, and industry. Climatology forecasts of streamflow have been traditionally used for calculating the exceedance probability curve of streamflow and water resource management. In this study, we proposed a stochastic approach to predict the exceedance probability curve of long-term streamflow with the seasonal weather outlook from Central Weather Bureau (CWB), Taiwan. The approach incorporates a statistical downscale weather generator and a catchment-scale hydrological model to convert the monthly outlook into daily rainfall and temperature series and to simulate the streamflow based on the outlook information. Moreover, we applied Bayes' theorem to derive a method for calculating the exceedance probability curve of the reservoir inflow based on the seasonal weather outlook and its imperfection. The results show that our approach can give the exceedance probability curves reflecting the three-month weather outlook and its accuracy. We also show how the improvement of the weather outlook affects the predicted exceedance probability curves of the streamflow. Our approach should be useful for the seasonal planning and management of water resource and their risk assessment.

Annual distributions and variations of dust weather occurrence over the Tarim Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yong; Zhou, Yang; Wang, Minzhong; Huo, Wen; Huang, Anning; Yang, Xinhua; Yang, Fan

2018-04-01

The annual distribution and variations in dust weather occurrence (DWO) have been analyzed using monthly DWO data from 26 stations over the Tarim Basin during the period of 1961 to 2010. The results show that the DWO presents a significant decreasing trend for different parts of the Tarim Basin in recent decades. The monthly DWO has two peaks in the east and west. In the first half of the year, the peak is in April, but in the second half of the year, the peak is in September. According to the concentration period and concentration degree (CD) of DWO, we can find that the maximum DWO occurs in April in the eastern, western, and northern parts of the basin, but it occurs in May in the southern part. The dust weather season is shorter for the northern and eastern parts of the basin than those of the remaining parts. On average, the dust weather season initiates in April in the northeast and in May for the rest of the region. As an indicator for the length of dust weather season, the CD is significantly related to DWO, with a correlation coefficient of -0.51, revealing an interesting feature of regional climate change with declining DWO and declining dust weather season over the Tarim Basin. The correlation analysis exhibits that all the Arctic Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation have a negative relation with the DWO but a positive relation with the length of dust weather season.

A Sounding-based Severe Weather Tool to Support Daily Operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H.; Roeder, William P.

2014-01-01

People and property at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are at risk when severe weather occurs. Strong winds, hail and tornadoes can injure individuals and cause costly damage to structures if not properly protected. NASA's Launch Services Program and Ground Systems Development and Operations Program and other KSC programs use the daily and weekly severe weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to determine if they need to limit an activity such as working on gantries, or protect property such as a vehicle on a pad. The 45 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a warm season (May-September) severe weather tool for use in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) based on the late morning, 1500 UTC (1100 local time), CCAFS (XMR) sounding. The 45 WS frequently makes decisions to issue a severe weather watch and other severe weather warning support products to NASA and the 45th Space Wing in the late morning, after the 1500 UTC sounding. The results of this work indicate that certain stability indices based on the late morning XMR soundings can depict differences between days with reported severe weather and days with no reported severe weather. The AMU determined a frequency of reported severe weather for the stability indices and implemented an operational tool in MIDDS.

A Modeling Study of the Spring 2011 Extreme US Weather Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, S.; Suarez, M.; Chang, Y.

2012-01-01

The spring of 2011 was characterized by record-breaking tornadic activity with substantial loss of life and destruction of property. While a waning La Nina and other atmospheric teleconnections have been implicated in the development of these extreme weather events, a quantitative assessment of their causes is still lacking. This study uses high resolution (1/4 lat/lon) GEOS-5 AGCM experiments to quantify the role of SSTs and soil moisture in the development of the extreme weather activity with a focus on April - the month of peak tornadic activity. The simulations, consisting of 22-member ensembles of three-month long simulations (initialized March 1st) reproduce the main features of the observed large-scale changes including the below-normal temperature and above-normal precipitation in the Central US, and the hot and dry conditions to the south. Various sensitivity experiments are conducted to separate the roles of the SST, soil moisture and the initial atmospheric conditions in the development and predictability of the atmospheric conditions (wind shear, moisture, etc.) favoring the severe weather activity and flooding.

Recent Global Warming As Depicted by AIRS, GISSTEMP, and MERRA-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susskind, J.; Iredell, L. F.; Lee, J. N.

2017-12-01

We observed anomalously warm global mean surface temperatures since 2015. The year 2016 represents the warmest annual mean surface skin and surface air temperatures in the AIRS observational period, September 2002 through August 2017. Additionally, AIRS monthly mean surface skin temperature, from January 2016 through September 2016, and November 2016, were the warmest observed for each month of the year. Continuing this trend, the AIRS global surface temperatures of 2017 February and April show the second greatest positive anomalies from average. This recent warming is particularly significant over the Arctic where the snow and sea ice melt is closely tied to the spring and summer surface temperatures. In this paper, we show the global distribution of surface temperature anomalies as observed by AIRS over the period September 2002 through August 2017 and compare them with those from the GISSTEMP and MERRA-2 surface temperatures. The spatial patterns of warm and cold anomalies for a given month show reasonably good agreement in all three data set. AIRS anomalies, which do not have the benefit of in-situ measurements, are in almost perfect agreement with those of MERRA-2, which does use in-situ surface measurements. GISSTEMP anomaly patterns for the most part look similar to those of AIRS and MERRA-2, but are more spread out spatially, and consequently are also weaker.

oldWeather.org: Citizen Science for Climate Reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brohan, P.

2012-12-01

Most of us care about today's weather, and the predictions for tomorrow's; but the weather of decades and centuries ago has traditionally been of interest only to a handful of historians and climatologists. However, the increasing concern about the consequences of climate change is raising the profile of historical climatology - a good understanding of past climate is needed to judge whether today's storms and droughts are unusual, and to add confidence and context to predictions of future change. `Old weather' is changing from an academic speciality into an area of public interest, and reconstructions of past climate are being subjected to intense critical inspection. This increased public interest is a challenge for scientists, as they have to communicate their methods and results to a much wider audience; but also an opportunity, as the public can actively help with scientific projects. The oldWeather project (http://oldweather.org) takes advantage of this interest by engaging a large community of interested volunteers, who are recovering the millions of archived historic weather observations needed to reconstruct the past weather and climate. Over the past 18 months, more than 12,000 volunteers have been reading the logbooks of 300 Royal Navy ships from the period 1914-22, and transcribing the frequent and regular weather observations they contain. The wide area of operation of the Royal Navy means that the observations recovered improve historical weather reconstructions over a large fraction of the world. As well as the new climate records, the project has produced a wealth of historical information for the Navy of the period, and an active community of volunteer researchers. The project is now being extended to look at US records - from the Navy and revenue service.

A Simple Ensemble Simulation Technique for Assessment of Future Variations in Specific High-Impact Weather Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taniguchi, Kenji

2018-04-01

To investigate future variations in high-impact weather events, numerous samples are required. For the detailed assessment in a specific region, a high spatial resolution is also required. A simple ensemble simulation technique is proposed in this paper. In the proposed technique, new ensemble members were generated from one basic state vector and two perturbation vectors, which were obtained by lagged average forecasting simulations. Sensitivity experiments with different numbers of ensemble members, different simulation lengths, and different perturbation magnitudes were performed. Experimental application to a global warming study was also implemented for a typhoon event. Ensemble-mean results and ensemble spreads of total precipitation, atmospheric conditions showed similar characteristics across the sensitivity experiments. The frequencies of the maximum total and hourly precipitation also showed similar distributions. These results indicate the robustness of the proposed technique. On the other hand, considerable ensemble spread was found in each ensemble experiment. In addition, the results of the application to a global warming study showed possible variations in the future. These results indicate that the proposed technique is useful for investigating various meteorological phenomena and the impacts of global warming. The results of the ensemble simulations also enable the stochastic evaluation of differences in high-impact weather events. In addition, the impacts of a spectral nudging technique were also examined. The tracks of a typhoon were quite different between cases with and without spectral nudging; however, the ranges of the tracks among ensemble members were comparable. It indicates that spectral nudging does not necessarily suppress ensemble spread.

Weather Watch

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bratt, Herschell Marvin

1973-01-01

Suggests a number of ways in which Federal Aviation Agency weather report printouts can be used in teaching the weather section of meteorology. These weather sequence reports can be obtained free of charge at most major airports. (JR)

Toward seamless weather-climate and environmental prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunet, Gilbert

2016-04-01

Over the last decade or so, predicting the weather, climate and atmospheric composition has emerged as one of the most important areas of scientific endeavor. This is partly because the remarkable increase in skill of current weather forecasts has made society more and more dependent on them day to day for a whole range of decision making. And it is partly because climate change is now widely accepted and the realization is growing rapidly that it will affect every person in the world profoundly, either directly or indirectly. One of the important endeavors of our societies is to remain at the cutting-edge of modelling and predicting the evolution of the fully coupled environmental system: atmosphere (weather and composition), oceans, land surface (physical and biological), and cryosphere. This effort will provide an increasingly accurate and reliable service across all the socio-economic sectors that are vulnerable to the effects of adverse weather and climatic conditions, whether now or in the future. This emerging challenge was at the center of the World Weather Open Science Conference (Montreal, 2014).The outcomes of the conference are described in the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) book: Seamless Prediction of the Earth System: from Minutes to Months, (G. Brunet, S. Jones, P. Ruti Eds., WMO-No. 1156, 2015). It is freely available on line at the WMO website. We will discuss some of the outcomes of the conference for the WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) long term goals and provide examples of seamless modelling and prediction across a range of timescales at convective and sub-kilometer scales for regional coupled forecasting applications at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).

Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings

PubMed Central

Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

2016-01-01

The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities’ preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities’ capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change. PMID:27649547

Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings.

PubMed

Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

2016-01-01

The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities' preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities' capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change.

New Generation of Satellite-Derived Ocean Thermal Structure for the Western North Pacific Typhoon Intensity Forecasting

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-26

took 35% of error as a threshold to deter- mine whether the parameters derived by the REGWNP are of acceptable accuracy. Fig. 13 shows the applicable...2000. The interaction between Hurricane Opal (1995) and a warm core ring in the Gulf of Mexico. Monthly Weather Review 128, 1347–1365. Jacob, S.D...Hurricane Opal . Monthly Weather Review 128, 1366–1383. Stephens, C., Antonov, J.I., Boyer, T.P., Conkright, M.E., Locarnini, R.A., O’Brien, T.D., Carcia

Will climate change affect weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissen, Katrin M.; Pardowitz, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Nied, Manuela

2013-04-01

This study investigates the effects of anthropogenic climate change on weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin. The study is based on an ensemble of 3 simulations with the ECHAM5 MPIOM coupled model forced with historical and SRES A1B greenhouse gas concentrations. Relevant weather types, occuring in association with recent flood events, are identified in the ERA40 reanalysis data set. The weather types are classified with the SANDRA cluster algorithm. Distributions of tropospheric humidity content, 500 hPa geopotential height and 500 hPa temperature over Europe are taken as input parameters. 8 (out of 40) weather types are found to be associated with flooding events in the Elbe river basin. The majority of these (6) typically occur during winter, while 2 are warm season patterns. Downscaling reveals characteristic precipitation anomalies associated with the individual patterns. The 8 flood relevant weather types are then identified in the ECHAM5 simulations. The effect of climate change on these patterns is investigated by comparing the last 30 years of the previous century to the last 30 years of the 21st century. According to the model the frequency of most patterns will not change. 5 patterns may experience a statistically significant increase in the mean precipitation over the catchment area and 4 patterns an increase in extreme precipitation. Persistence may slightly decrease for 2 patterns and remain unchanged for the others. Overall, this indicates a moderate increase in the risk for Elbe river flooding, related to changes in the weather patterns, in the coming decades.

Global Warming.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hileman, Bette

1989-01-01

States the foundations of the theory of global warming. Describes methodologies used to measure the changes in the atmosphere. Discusses steps currently being taken in the United States and the world to slow the warming trend. Recognizes many sources for the warming and the possible effects on the earth. (MVL)

STEREO Space Weather and the Space Weather Beacon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biesecker, D. A.; Webb, D F.; SaintCyr, O. C.

2007-01-01

The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) is first and foremost a solar and interplanetary research mission, with one of the natural applications being in the area of space weather. The obvious potential for space weather applications is so great that NOAA has worked to incorporate the real-time data into their forecast center as much as possible. A subset of the STEREO data will be continuously downlinked in a real-time broadcast mode, called the Space Weather Beacon. Within the research community there has been considerable interest in conducting space weather related research with STEREO. Some of this research is geared towards making an immediate impact while other work is still very much in the research domain. There are many areas where STEREO might contribute and we cannot predict where all the successes will come. Here we discuss how STEREO will contribute to space weather and many of the specific research projects proposed to address STEREO space weather issues. We also discuss some specific uses of the STEREO data in the NOAA Space Environment Center.

Determining mineral weathering rates based on solid and solute weathering gradients and velocities: Application to biotite weathering in saprolites

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, A.F.

2002-01-01

Chemical weathering gradients are defined by the changes in the measured elemental concentrations in solids and pore waters with depth in soils and regoliths. An increase in the mineral weathering rate increases the change in these concentrations with depth while increases in the weathering velocity decrease the change. The solid-state weathering velocity is the rate at which the weathering front propagates through the regolith and the solute weathering velocity is equivalent to the rate of pore water infiltration. These relationships provide a unifying approach to calculating both solid and solute weathering rates from the respective ratios of the weathering velocities and gradients. Contemporary weathering rates based on solute residence times can be directly compared to long-term past weathering based on changes in regolith composition. Both rates incorporate identical parameters describing mineral abundance, stoichiometry, and surface area. Weathering gradients were used to calculate biotite weathering rates in saprolitic regoliths in the Piedmont of Northern Georgia, USA and in Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico. Solid-state weathering gradients for Mg and K at Panola produced reaction rates of 3 to 6 x 10-17 mol m-2 s-1 for biotite. Faster weathering rates of 1.8 to 3.6 ?? 10-16 mol m-2 s-1 are calculated based on Mg and K pore water gradients in the Rio Icacos regolith. The relative rates are in agreement with a warmer and wetter tropical climate in Puerto Rico. Both natural rates are three to six orders of magnitude slower than reported experimental rates of biotite weathering. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Pilot weather advisor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kilgore, W. A.; Seth, S.; Crabill, N. L.; Shipley, S. T.; Graffman, I.; Oneill, J.

1992-01-01

The results of the work performed by ViGYAN, Inc., to demonstrate the Pilot Weather Advisor cockpit weather data system using a broadcast satellite communication system are presented. The Pilot Weather Advisor demonstrated that the technical problems involved with transmitting significant amount of weather data to an aircraft in-flight or on-the-ground via satellite are solvable with today's technology. The Pilot Weather Advisor appears to be a viable solution for providing accurate and timely weather information for general aviation aircraft.

Warming-Induced Changes to the Molecular Composition of Soil Organic Matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Simpson, M. J.; Simpson, A. J.; Wilson, K. P.; Williams, D.

2007-12-01

Soil organic matter (SOM) contains two times more carbon than the atmosphere and the potential changes to SOM quantity and quality with global warming are a major concern. It is commonly believed that global warming will accelerate the decomposition of labile SOM compounds while refractory SOM constituents will remain stable. However, experimental evidence of molecular-level changes to SOM composition with global warming is currently lacking. Here we employ SOM biomarkers and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to study SOM composition and degradation in a soil warming experiment in southern Ontario, Canada. The soil warming experiment consisted of a control and a treatment plot in a mixed forest that had a temperature difference of about 5 degrees C for 14 months. Before soil warming the control and treatment plots had the same organic carbon (OC) content and SOM composition. Soil warming significantly increased soil OC content and the abundance of cutin-derived carbon originating from leaf tissues and decreased carbohydrates that are regarded as easily degradable. Lignin components, which are believed to be part of the stable and slowly-cycling SOM, were observed to be in an advanced stage of degradation. This observation is corroborated by increases in fungal biomass in the warmed soil because fungi are considered the primary decomposer of lignin in the soil environment. An NMR study of SOM in the warmed and control plots indicates that alkyl carbon, mainly originating from plant cuticles in the soil, increased in the warmed soil while O-alkyl carbon, primarily occurring in carbohydrates, decreased. Aromatic and phenolic carbon regions, which include the main structures found in lignin, decreased in the warmed soil. These data collectively suggest that there is a great potential for lignin degradation with soil warming, and that the refractory (aromatic) soil carbon storage may be reduced as a result of increased fungal growth in a warmer climate.

Weather Information System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1995-01-01

WxLink is an aviation weather system based on advanced airborne sensors, precise positioning available from the satellite-based Global Positioning System, cockpit graphics and a low-cost datalink. It is a two-way system that uplinks weather information to the aircraft and downlinks automatic pilot reports of weather conditions aloft. Manufactured by ARNAV Systems, Inc., the original technology came from Langley Research Center's cockpit weather information system, CWIN (Cockpit Weather INformation). The system creates radar maps of storms, lightning and reports of surface observations, offering improved safety, better weather monitoring and substantial fuel savings.

The effect of ambient exposure to PM2.5 on the transfusion usage of blood components and adverse transfusion reactions in the haze weather.

PubMed

Chang, Chih-Chun; Lin, Hui-Jung; Sun, Jen-Tang; Li, Pei-Yu; Lee, Tai-Chen; Su, Ming-Jang; Yen, Tzung-Hai; Chu, Fang-Yeh

2016-10-01

Accumulating evidence has shown that ambient exposure to PM 2.5 , especially in the haze weather, increased the risk of various diseases. However, the association of air pollution status with blood transfusion utilization and the prevalence and severity of adverse transfusion reactions remain to be clarified. The data of monthly transfusion usage of blood components, adverse transfusion reactions, as well as PM 2.5 and PM 10 levels from 2013 to 2015 were obtained. During the study interval, both PM 2.5 and PM 10 levels were significantly increased in the haze weather when compared with the non-haze weather. The utilization of total blood components per patient-month in the haze weather was prone to be increased when compared with that in the non-haze weather (13.28 ± 1.66 vs. 12.33 ± 1.30, p = 0.068). The usage of RBC products per patient-month in the haze weather was significantly increased when compared with that in the non-haze weather (4.39 ± 0.39 vs. 4.07 ± 0.30, p = 0.009). There was no obvious difference between the haze and non-haze weathers for the usage of platelet and plasma products per patient-month. Besides, no definite differences of the prevalence and severity of transfusion-associated adverse reaction were observed between the haze and non-haze weathers. Our study first indicated that transfusion utilization, particularly the RBC products, was significantly increased in the haze weather when compared with that in the non-haze weather. There was no obvious association of air pollution with the prevalence and severity of adverse transfusion reactions and further research is required. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, Tom K. R.; Wilby, Robert L.; Murphy, Conor

2017-04-01

In December of 2015, the international community pledged to limit global warming to below 2 °C above preindustrial (PI) to prevent dangerous climate change. However, to what extent, and for whom, is danger avoided if this ambitious target is realized? We address these questions by scrutinizing heat stress, because the frequency of extremely hot weather is expected to continue to rise in the approach to the 2 °C limit. We use analogs and the extreme South Asian heat of 2015 as a focusing event to help interpret the increasing frequency of deadly heat under specified amounts of global warming. Using a large ensemble of climate models, our results confirm that global mean air temperature is nonlinearly related to heat stress, meaning that the same future warming as realized to date could trigger larger increases in societal impacts than historically experienced. This nonlinearity is higher for heat stress metrics that integrate the effect of rising humidity. We show that, even in a climate held to 2 °C above PI, Karachi (Pakistan) and Kolkata (India) could expect conditions equivalent to their deadly 2015 heatwaves every year. With only 1.5 °C of global warming, twice as many megacities (such as Lagos, Nigeria, and Shanghai, China) could become heat stressed, exposing more than 350 million more people to deadly heat by 2050 under a midrange population growth scenario. The results underscore that, even if the Paris targets are realized, there could still be a significant adaptation imperative for vulnerable urban populations.

Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress

PubMed Central

Matthews, Tom K. R.; Wilby, Robert L.; Murphy, Conor

2017-01-01

In December of 2015, the international community pledged to limit global warming to below 2 °C above preindustrial (PI) to prevent dangerous climate change. However, to what extent, and for whom, is danger avoided if this ambitious target is realized? We address these questions by scrutinizing heat stress, because the frequency of extremely hot weather is expected to continue to rise in the approach to the 2 °C limit. We use analogs and the extreme South Asian heat of 2015 as a focusing event to help interpret the increasing frequency of deadly heat under specified amounts of global warming. Using a large ensemble of climate models, our results confirm that global mean air temperature is nonlinearly related to heat stress, meaning that the same future warming as realized to date could trigger larger increases in societal impacts than historically experienced. This nonlinearity is higher for heat stress metrics that integrate the effect of rising humidity. We show that, even in a climate held to 2 °C above PI, Karachi (Pakistan) and Kolkata (India) could expect conditions equivalent to their deadly 2015 heatwaves every year. With only 1.5 °C of global warming, twice as many megacities (such as Lagos, Nigeria, and Shanghai, China) could become heat stressed, exposing more than 350 million more people to deadly heat by 2050 under a midrange population growth scenario. The results underscore that, even if the Paris targets are realized, there could still be a significant adaptation imperative for vulnerable urban populations. PMID:28348220

Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress.

PubMed

Matthews, Tom K R; Wilby, Robert L; Murphy, Conor

2017-04-11

In December of 2015, the international community pledged to limit global warming to below 2 °C above preindustrial (PI) to prevent dangerous climate change. However, to what extent, and for whom, is danger avoided if this ambitious target is realized? We address these questions by scrutinizing heat stress, because the frequency of extremely hot weather is expected to continue to rise in the approach to the 2 °C limit. We use analogs and the extreme South Asian heat of 2015 as a focusing event to help interpret the increasing frequency of deadly heat under specified amounts of global warming. Using a large ensemble of climate models, our results confirm that global mean air temperature is nonlinearly related to heat stress, meaning that the same future warming as realized to date could trigger larger increases in societal impacts than historically experienced. This nonlinearity is higher for heat stress metrics that integrate the effect of rising humidity. We show that, even in a climate held to 2 °C above PI, Karachi (Pakistan) and Kolkata (India) could expect conditions equivalent to their deadly 2015 heatwaves every year. With only 1.5 °C of global warming, twice as many megacities (such as Lagos, Nigeria, and Shanghai, China) could become heat stressed, exposing more than 350 million more people to deadly heat by 2050 under a midrange population growth scenario. The results underscore that, even if the Paris targets are realized, there could still be a significant adaptation imperative for vulnerable urban populations.

Direct Contribution of the Stratosphere to Recent West Antarctic Warming in Austral Spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolas, J. P.; Bromwich, D. H.

2015-12-01

The causes of the rapid warming of West Antarctica in recent decades are not yet fully understood. Thus far, investigations of the phenomenon have emphasized the role of tropospheric teleconnections originating from the Tropics in austral winter, but have had less success in explaining the strong warming in austral spring (SON). Here, we further explore the mechanisms behind the SON warming by focusing on September, the month during which atmospheric temperature and circulation trends in and around West Antarctica largely account for the 3-month average SON trends. We show that the tropospheric trends toward lower pressures/heights (more cyclonic) over the South Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean previously reported extend vertically well into the stratosphere. In the lower troposphere, these circulation changes, by steering more warm air toward West Antarctica, have likely contributed to the warming of the region. In the stratosphere, we provide evidence that the cyclonic trends are associated with a very prominent stratospheric warming in the Australian sector, believed to be the result of increased tropically-forced planetary wave activity and wave breaking. Through thermal wind balance, this regional stratospheric warming has led to a poleward displacement of the polar-night jet south of Australia, leading to enhanced cyclonic motion and potential vorticity (PV) downwind over the Amundsen Sea region. Finally, we establish, through the PV inversion framework, a causal link between stratospheric and tropospheric changes, whereby large PV anomalies in the stratosphere induce consistent geopotential height anomalies down in the troposphere. Our results highlight not only the important and largely overlooked role played by the stratosphere in recent West Antarctic climate change, but also a new pathway for tropical climate variability to influence Antarctic climate.

Using Weather Types to Understand and Communicate Weather and Climate Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prein, A. F.; Hale, B.; Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Mearns, L.

2017-12-01

A common challenge in atmospheric research is the translation of scientific advancements and breakthroughs to decision relevant and actionable information. This challenge is central to the mission of NCAR's Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes (C3WE, www.c3we.ucar.edu). C3WE advances our understanding of weather and climate impacts and integrates these advances with distributed information technology to create tools that promote a global culture of resilience to weather and climate extremes. Here we will present an interactive web-based tool that connects historic U.S. losses and fatalities from extreme weather and climate events to 12 large-scale weather types. Weather types are dominant weather situations such as winter high-pressure systems over the U.S. leading to very cold temperatures or summertime moist humid air masses over the central U.S. leading to severe thunderstorms. Each weather type has a specific fingerprint of economic losses and fatalities in a region that is quantified. Therefore, weather types enable a direct connection of observed or forecasted weather situation to loss of life and property. The presented tool allows the user to explore these connections, raise awareness of existing vulnerabilities, and build resilience to weather and climate extremes.

Efficient Warm-ups: Creating a Warm-up That Works.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lauffenburger, Sandra Kay

1992-01-01

Proper warm-up is important for any activity, but designing an effective warm-up can be time consuming. An alternative approach is to take a cue from Laban Movement Analysis (LMA) and consider movement design from the perspective of space and planes of motion. Efficient warm-up exercises using LMA are described. (SM)

Relative roles of differential SST warming, uniform SST warming and land surface warming in determining the Walker circulation changes under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lei; Li, Tim

2017-02-01

Most of CMIP5 models projected a weakened Walker circulation in tropical Pacific, but what causes such change is still an open question. By conducting idealized numerical simulations separating the effects of the spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming, extra land surface warming and differential SST warming, we demonstrate that the weakening of the Walker circulation is attributed to the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon and South America land effects. The effect of the uniform SST warming is through so-called "richest-get-richer" mechanism. In response to a uniform surface warming, the WNP monsoon is enhanced by competing moisture with other large-scale convective branches. The strengthened WNP monsoon further induces surface westerlies in the equatorial western-central Pacific, weakening the Walker circulation. The increase of the greenhouse gases leads to a larger land surface warming than ocean surface. As a result, a greater thermal contrast occurs between American Continent and equatorial Pacific. The so-induced zonal pressure gradient anomaly forces low-level westerly anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and weakens the Walker circulation. The differential SST warming also plays a role in driving low-level westerly anomalies over tropical Pacific. But such an effect involves a positive air-sea feedback that amplifies the weakening of both east-west SST gradient and Pacific trade winds.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

PubMed

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-07

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

PubMed

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-20

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

PubMed Central

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-01-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming. PMID:28317914

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Effect of regional climate warming on the phenology of butterflies in boreal forests in Manitoba, Canada.

PubMed

Westwood, A R; Blair, D

2010-08-01

We examined the effect of regional climate warming on the phenology of butterfly species in boreal forest ecosystems in Manitoba, Canada. For the period 1971-2004, the mean monthly temperatures in January, September, and December increased significantly, as did the mean temperatures for several concurrent monthly periods. The mean annual temperature increased ≈ 0.05°C/yr over the study period. The annual number of frost-free days and degree-day accumulations increased as well. We measured the response of 19 common butterfly species to these temperature changes with the date of first appearance, week of peak abundance, and the length of flight period over the 33-yr period of 1972-2004. Although adult butterfly response was variable for spring and summer months, 13 of 19 species showed a significant (P < 0.05) increase in flight period extending longer into the autumn. Flight period extensions increased by 31.5 ± 13.9 (SD) d over the study period for 13 butterfly species significantly affected by the warming trend. The early autumn and winter months warmed significantly, and butterflies seem to be responding to this warming trend with a change in the length of certain life stages. Two species, Junonia coenia and Euphydryas phaeton, increased their northerly ranges by ≈ 150 and 70 km, respectively. Warmer autumns and winters may be providing opportunities for range extensions of more southerly butterfly species held at bay by past climatic conditions.

Defining the `negative emission' capacity of global agriculture deployed for enhanced rock weathering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beerling, D. J.; Taylor, L.; Banwart, S. A.; Kantzas, E. P.; Lomas, M.; Mueller, C.; Ridgwell, A.; Quegan, S.

2016-12-01

Enhanced rock weathering involves application of crushed silicates (e.g. basalt) to the landscape to accelerate their chemical breakdown to release base cations and form bicarbonate that ultimate sequester CO2 in the oceans. Global croplands cover an area of 12 million km2 and might be deployed for long-term removal of anthropogenic CO2 through enhanced rock weathering with a number of co-benefits for food security. This presentation assesses the potential of this strategy to contribute to `negative emissions' as defined by a suite of simulations coupling a detailed model of rock grain weathering by crop root-microbial processes with a managed land dynamic global vegetation model driven by the `business as usual' future climate change scenarios. We calculate potential atmospheric CO2 drawdown over the next century by introducing a strengthened C-sink term into the global carbon cycle model within an intermediate complexity Earth system model. Our simulations indicate agricultural lands deployed in this way constitute a `low tech' biological negative emissions strategy. As part of a wider portfolio of options, this strategy might contribute to limiting future warming to 2oC, subject to economic costs and energy requirements.

Using Space Weather for Enhanced, Extreme Terrestrial Weather Predictions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna, M. H.; Lee, T. A., III

2017-12-01

Considering the complexities of the Sun-Earth system, the impacts of space weather to weather here on Earth are not fully understood. This study attempts to analyze this interrelationship by providing a theoretical framework for studying the varied modalities of solar inclination and explores the extent to which they contribute, both in formation and intensity, to extreme terrestrial weather. Using basic topologic and ontology engineering concepts (TOEC), the transdisciplinary syntaxes of space physics, geophysics, and meteorology are analyzed as a seamless interrelated system. This paper reports this investigation's initial findings and examines the validity of the question "Does space weather contribute to extreme weather on Earth, and if so, to what degree?"

Efficacy of Warm Showers on Postpartum Fatigue Among Vaginal-Birth Taiwanese Women: A Quasi-Experimental Design.

PubMed

Hsieh, Ching-Hsing; Chen, Chien-Lan; Chung, Feng-Fang; Lin, Su-Ying

2017-05-01

Postpartum fatigue is one of the most common complaints among women following childbirth. As a postpartum ritual practice, Taiwanese women refrain from taking showers while "doing the month." However, warm showers are the systemic application of moist heat, and they maintain physical hygiene, stimulate blood circulation, mitigate discomfort, and provide relaxation. As Taiwanese society becomes increasingly receptive to scientific and contemporary health care practice, more and more women choose to take warm showers after childbirth. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of warm showers on postpartum fatigue among vaginal-birth women in Taiwan. This was a two-group quasi-experimental design. Women took showers in warm water with temperatures ranging between 40 °C and 43 °C for approximately 20 minutes. Postpartum women's fatigue is measured using the 10-item Postpartum Fatigue Scale (PFS). The intervention effect was analyzed using a generalized estimating equation (GEE) model. The study population consisted of 358 vaginal-birth postpartum Taiwanese women aged 20-43 years. Postpartum women who took warm showers showed improvements from their pretest to posttest mean scores of postpartum fatigue compared to postpartum women who did not take warm showers. Warm showers helped to reduce postpartum fatigue among vaginal-birth women during the study period. Nurses have the unique opportunity to provide the intervention to Taiwanese women who have vaginal birth to help them relieve postpartum fatigue with warm showers while "doing the month" without the taboo of no-showering customary practices in the early postpartum period.

A new precipitation and meteorological drought climatology based on weather patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, D.; Fowler, H. J.; Kilsby, C. G.; Neal, R.

2017-12-01

Weather-pattern, or weather-type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterise the broad-scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. An analysis of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a set of objectively defined weather patterns is presented. This classification system, introduced last year, is currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. The classification consists of 30 daily patterns derived from North Atlantic Ocean and European mean sea level pressure data. Clustering these 30 patterns yields another set of eight patterns that are intended for use in longer-range applications. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to the commonly-used Lamb Weather Types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Drought index series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather-pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for different drought index thresholds, representing dry, wet and drought conditions. The set of 30 weather patterns is shown to be adequate for precipitation-based analyses in the UK, although the smaller set of clustered patterns is not. Furthermore, intra-pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in the context of precipitation studies. Weather patterns associated with drought over the different UK regions are identified. This has potential forecasting application - if a model (e.g. a global seasonal forecast model) can predict weather pattern occurrences then regional drought outlooks may be derived from the forecasted weather patterns.

Electro-optical seasonal weather and gender data collection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCoppin, Ryan; Koester, Nathan; Rude, Howard N.; Rizki, Mateen; Tamburino, Louis; Freeman, Andrew; Mendoza-Schrock, Olga

2013-05-01

This paper describes the process used to collect the Seasonal Weather And Gender (SWAG) dataset; an electro-optical dataset of human subjects that can be used to develop advanced gender classification algorithms. Several novel features characterize this ongoing effort (1) the human subjects self-label their gender by performing a specific action during the data collection and (2) the data collection will span months and even years resulting in a dataset containing realistic levels and types of clothing corresponding to the various seasons and weather conditions. It is envisioned that this type of data will support the development and evaluation of more robust gender classification systems that are capable of accurate gender recognition under extended operating conditions.

Osmium isotope perturbations during the Pliensbachian-Toarcian (Early Jurassic): Relationships between volcanism, weathering, and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Percival, Lawrence; Cohen, Anthony; Davies, Marc; Dickson, Alexander; Jenkyns, Hugh; Hesselbo, Stephen; Mather, Tamsin; Xu, Weimu; Storm, Marisa

2016-04-01

The Mesozoic Era marked a time of greenhouse conditions on Earth, punctuated by a number of abrupt perturbations to the carbon cycle, such as Ocean Anoxic Events (OAEs). OAEs are typically marked in the stratigraphic record by the appearance of organic-rich shales, and excursions in carbon-isotope ratios registered in carbonates and organic matter. A range of geochemical evidence indicates changes to global temperatures, typically featuring abrupt warming possibly caused by CO2 emissions resulting from Large Igneous Province (LIP) volcanism. A warmer atmosphere is thought to have led to changes in the global hydrological cycle, which would likely have enhanced global weathering rates. The Toarcian OAE (T-OAE) is inferred, from osmium isotope ratios in organic-rich mudrocks from Yorkshire and western North America, to have been a time of such increased weathering rates. However, it is likely that the sediments at these locations were deposited in relatively hydrographically restricted environments, potentially more susceptible to the influence of local input; consequently, they may not offer the best representation of the global seawater Os-isotope composition at that time. In this study, we have measured the osmium isotope composition of siciliclastic mudrocks in a core from the Mochras borehole (Llanbedr Farm, Cardigan Bay Basin, Wales), which constitutes a sedimentary record for a fully open-marine seaway that connected Tethys to the Boreal ocean during the Toarcian. We analysed samples from strata including both the T-OAE and preceding Pliensbachian-Toarcian boundary (Pl-To), both of which record multiple geochemical excursions and records of elevated extinction amongst benthic fauna. We find that the latest Pliensbachian records seawater 187Os/188Os of ~0.35-0.4, rising to ~0.5 at the Pl-To boundary, before a further rise to ~0.7 during the T-OAE. We conclude that such increases in radiogenic Os flux to the ocean system resulted from enhanced continental

Deacclimation may be crucial for winter survival of cereals under warming climate.

PubMed

Rapacz, Marcin; Jurczyk, Barbara; Sasal, Monika

2017-03-01

Climate warming can change the winter weather patterns. Warmer temperatures during winter result in a lower risk of extreme freezing events. On the other hand the predicted warm gaps during winter will decrease their freezing tolerance. Both contradict effects will affect winter survival but their resultant effect is unclear. In this paper, we demonstrate that climate warming may result in a decrease in winter survival of plants. A field study of winterhardiness of common wheat and triticale was established at 11 locations and repeated during three subsequent winters. The freezing tolerance of the plants was studied after controlled cold acclimation and de-acclimation using both plant survival analysis and chlorophyll fluorescence measurements. Cold deacclimation resistance was shown to be independent from cold acclimation ability. Further, cold deacclimation resistance appeared to be crucial for overwintering when deacclimation conditions occurred in the field. The shortening of uninterrupted cold acclimation may increase cold deacclimation efficiency, which could threaten plant survival during warmer winters. Measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence transient showed some differences triggered by freezing before and after deacclimation. We conclude that cold deacclimation resistance should be considered in the breeding of winter cereals and in future models of winter damage risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shyness Trajectories in Slow-to-Warm-Up Infants: Relations with Child Sex and Maternal Parenting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grady, Jessica Stoltzfus; Karraker, Katherine; Metzger, Aaron

2012-01-01

Little is known about slow-to-warm-up temperament in infancy. This study examined the trajectory of shyness in children who were slow-to-warm-up in infancy in comparison to children with other temperament profiles in infancy. Participants were 996 mothers and children in the NICHD SECC studied from 6 months to first grade. Latent growth curve…

Evapotranspiration-dominated biogeophysical warming effect of urbanization in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Guosong; Dong, Jinwei; Cui, Yaoping; Liu, Jiyuan; Zhai, Jun; He, Tian; Zhou, Yuyu; Xiao, Xiangming

2018-03-01

Given the considerable influences of urbanization on near-surface air temperature (T a ) and surface skin temperature (T s ) at local and regional scales, we investigated the biogeophysical effects of urbanization on T a and T s in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region of China, a typical rapidly urbanizing area, using the weather research and forecasting model (WRF). Two experiments were conducted using satellite-derived realistic areal fraction land cover data in 2010 and 1990 as well as localized parameters (e.g. albedo and leaf area index). Without considering anthropogenic heat, experimental differences indicated a regional biogeophysical warming of 0.15 °C (0.16 °C) in summer T a (T s ), but a negligible warming in winter T a (T s ). Sensitivity analyses also showed a stronger magnitude of local warming in summer than in winter. Along with an increase of 10% in the urban fraction, local T a (T s ) increases of 0.185 °C (0.335 °C), 0.212 °C (0.464 °C), and 0.140 °C (0.220 °C) were found at annual, summer, and winter scales, respectively, according to a space-for-time substitution method. The sensitivity analyses will be beneficial to get a rough biogeophysical warming estimation of future urbanization projections. Furthermore, a decomposed temperature metric (DTM) method was applied for the attribution analyses of the change in T s induced by urbanization. Our results showed that the decrease in evapotranspiration-induced latent heat played a dominate role in biogeophysical warming due to urbanization in BTH, indicating that increasing green space could alleviate warming effects, especially in summer.

Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events

PubMed Central

Singh, Deepti; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

2017-01-01

Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent. PMID:28439005

Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S; Horton, Daniel E; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

2017-05-09

Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

Quantifying the Influence of Global Warming on Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael;

Weathering trend characterization of medium-molecular weight polycyclic aromatic disulfur heterocycles by Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry.

PubMed

Hegazi, Abdelrahman H; Fathalla, Eiman M; Andersson, Jan T

2014-09-01

Different weathering factors act to change petroleum composition once it is spilled into the environment. n-Alkanes, biomarkers, low-molecular weight polyaromatic hydrocarbons and sulfur heterocycles compositional changing in the environment have been extensively studied by different researchers and many parameters have been used for oil source identification and monitoring of weathering and biological degradation processes. In this work, we studied the fate of medium-molecular weight polycyclic aromatic disulfur heterocycles (PAS2Hs), up to ca. 900Da, of artificially weathered Flotta North Sea crude oil by ultra high-resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry. It was found that PAS2Hs in studied crude oil having double bond equivalents (DBE) from 5 to 8 with a mass range from ca 316 to 582Da were less influenced even after six months artificial weathering experiment. However, compounds having DBEs 12, 11 and 10 were depleted after two, four and six months weathering, respectively. In addition, DBE 9 series was more susceptible to weathering than those of DBE 7 and 8. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.

2011-01-01

Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Central and rear-edge populations can be equally vulnerable to warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Scott; Wernberg, Thomas; Arackal Joy, Bijo; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Campbell, Alexandra H.

2015-12-01

Rear (warm) edge populations are often considered more susceptible to warming than central (cool) populations because of the warmer ambient temperatures they experience, but this overlooks the potential for local variation in thermal tolerances. Here we provide conceptual models illustrating how sensitivity to warming is affected throughout a species' geographical range for locally adapted and non-adapted populations. We test these models for a range-contracting seaweed using observations from a marine heatwave and a 12-month experiment, translocating seaweeds among central, present and historic range edge locations. Growth, reproductive development and survivorship display different temperature thresholds among central and rear-edge populations, but share a 2.5 °C anomaly threshold. Range contraction, therefore, reflects variation in local anomalies rather than differences in absolute temperatures. This demonstrates that warming sensitivity can be similar throughout a species geographical range and highlights the importance of incorporating local adaptation and acclimatization into climate change vulnerability assessments.

The role of synoptic weather variability in Greenland ice sheet dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, J. M.; Radic, V.

2017-12-01

Much of the large uncertainty in predictions of future global sea level rise is due to our limited understanding of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) motion and its interactions with climate. Over the next century, climate models predict that the GrIS will experience not only gradual warming, but also changes in atmospheric circulation, hydrology, and weather, including a northward shift of the North Atlantic storm track, with greater frequency and intensity of rain storms over the GrIS. Recent studies of GrIS dynamics have focused on the effects of increased seasonal mean meltwater on ice velocities, finding only a modest impact due to compensation by subglacial drainage systems, but subglacial hydraulic theory indicates that variability on shorter timescales is also relevant: short-term surges in meltwater or rainfall can overload drainage systems at rates faster than they can adjust, leading to water pressure spikes and ice acceleration. If the magnitude or frequency of these transient ice accelerations increase substantially as synoptic weather patterns change over the next century, there could be a significant cumulative impact on seasonal mean ice velocities. However, this issue has not been addressed in the literature and represents a major source of uncertainty. In this study, we investigate the role of synoptic weather variability in GrIS dynamics, with the ultimate goal of evaluating the relationships between extreme weather events and ice sheet flow in different seasons and regions of the GrIS. As a first step, we apply the machine learning technique of self-organizing maps to atmospheric reanalysis data to categorize the predominant synoptic weather systems over the GrIS domain, evaluating atmospheric moisture transport and rainfall to assess the impacts of each weather system on GrIS surface hydrology. The preliminary results presented here will be used in conjunction with ice velocity satellite measurements in future work, to identify any correlations

Fun with Weather

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yildirim, Rana

2007-01-01

This three-part weather-themed lesson for young learners connects weather, clothing, and feelings vocabulary. The target structures covered are: asking about the weather; comparing weather; using the modal auxiliary, should; and the question word, when. The lessons utilize all four skills and include such activities as going outside, singing,…

Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Wenju; Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Wang, Huijun; Wu, Lixin

2017-03-01

The frequency of Beijing winter severe haze episodes has increased substantially over the past decades, and is commonly attributed to increased pollutant emissions from China’s rapid economic development. During such episodes, levels of fine particulate matter are harmful to human health and the environment, and cause massive disruption to economic activities, as occurred in January 2013. Conducive weather conditions are an important ingredient of severe haze episodes, and include reduced surface winter northerlies, weakened northwesterlies in the midtroposphere, and enhanced thermal stability of the lower atmosphere. How such weather conditions may respond to climate change is not clear. Here we project a 50% increase in the frequency and an 80% increase in the persistence of conducive weather conditions similar to those in January 2013, in response to climate change. The frequency and persistence between the historical (1950-1999) and future (2050-2099) climate were compared in 15 models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The increased frequency is consistent with large-scale circulation changes, including an Arctic Oscillation upward trend, weakening East Asian winter monsoon, and faster warming in the lower troposphere. Thus, circulation changes induced by global greenhouse gas emissions can contribute to the increased Beijing severe haze frequency.

Design and performance of combined infrared canopy and belowground warming in the B4WarmED (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment.

PubMed

Rich, Roy L; Stefanski, Artur; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Hobbie, Sarah E; Kimball, Bruce A; Reich, Peter B

2015-06-01

Conducting manipulative climate change experiments in complex vegetation is challenging, given considerable temporal and spatial heterogeneity. One specific challenge involves warming of both plants and soils to depth. We describe the design and performance of an open-air warming experiment called Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger (B4WarmED) that addresses the potential for projected climate warming to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes at the boreal-temperate ecotone. The experiment includes two forested sites in northern Minnesota, USA, with plots in both open (recently clear-cut) and closed canopy habitats, where seedlings of 11 tree species were planted into native ground vegetation. Treatments include three target levels of plant canopy and soil warming (ambient, +1.7°C, +3.4°C). Warming was achieved by independent feedback control of voltage input to aboveground infrared heaters and belowground buried resistance heating cables in each of 72-7.0 m(2) plots. The treatments emulated patterns of observed diurnal, seasonal, and annual temperatures but with superimposed warming. For the 2009 to 2011 field seasons, we achieved temperature elevations near our targets with growing season overall mean differences (∆Tbelow ) of +1.84°C and +3.66°C at 10 cm soil depth and (∆T(above) ) of +1.82°C and +3.45°C for the plant canopies. We also achieved measured soil warming to at least 1 m depth. Aboveground treatment stability and control were better during nighttime than daytime and in closed vs. open canopy sites in part due to calmer conditions. Heating efficacy in open canopy areas was reduced with increasing canopy complexity and size. Results of this study suggest the warming approach is scalable: it should work well in small-statured vegetation such as grasslands, desert, agricultural crops, and tree saplings (<5 m tall). © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Redistribution of vegetation zones and populations of Larix sibirica Ledb. and Pinus sylvestris L. in central Siberia in a warming climate

Treesearch

N.M. Tchebakova; G.E. Rehfeldt; E.I. Parfenova

2003-01-01

Evidence for global warming over the past 200 years is overwhelming (Hulme et al. 1999), based on both direct weather observation and indirect physical and biological indicators such as retreating glaciers and snow/ice cover, increasing sea level, and longer growing seasons (IPCC 2001). Recent GCM projections of the Hadley Centre (Gordon et al. 2000) for Siberia show...

An Evaluation of WRF Microphysics Schemes for Simulating the Warm-Type Heavy Rain over the Korean Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Hwan-Jin; Sohn, Byung-Ju

2018-05-01

The Korean peninsula is the region of distinctly showing the heavy rain associated with relatively low storm height and small ice water content in the upper part of cloud system (i.e., so-called warm-type heavy rainfall). The satellite observations for the warm-type rain over Korea led to a conjecture that the cloud microphysics parameterization suitable for the continental deep convection may not work well for the warm-type heavy rainfall over the Korean peninsula. Therefore, there is a growing need to examine the performance of cloud microphysics schemes for simulating the warm-type heavy rain structures over the Korean peninsula. This study aims to evaluate the capabilities of eight microphysics schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model how warm-type heavy rain structures can be simulated, in reference to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) reflectivity measurements. The results indicate that the WRF Double Moment 6-class (WDM6) scheme simulated best the vertical structure of warm-type heavy rain by virtue of a reasonable collision-coalescence process between liquid droplets and the smallest amount of snow. Nonetheless the WDM6 scheme appears to have limitations that need to be improved upon for a realistic reflectivity structure, in terms of the reflectivity slope below the melting layer, discontinuity in reflectivity profiles around the melting layer, and overestimation of upper-level reflectivity due to high graupel content.

Effects of weather conditions on emergency ambulance calls for acute coronary syndromes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vencloviene, Jone; Babarskiene, Ruta; Dobozinskas, Paulius; Siurkaite, Viktorija

2015-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between weather conditions and daily emergency ambulance calls for acute coronary syndromes (ACS). The study included data on 3631 patients who called the ambulance for chest pain and were admitted to the department of cardiology as patients with ACS. We investigated the effect of daily air temperature ( T), barometric pressure (BP), relative humidity, and wind speed (WS) to detect the risk areas for low and high daily volume (DV) of emergency calls. We used the classification and regression tree method as well as cluster analysis. The clusters were created by applying the k-means cluster algorithm using the standardized daily weather variables. The analysis was performed separately during cold (October-April) and warm (May-September) seasons. During the cold period, the greatest DV was observed on days of low T during the 3-day sequence, on cold and windy days, and on days of low BP and high WS during the 3-day sequence; low DV was associated with high BP and decreased WS on the previous day. During June-September, a lower DV was associated with low BP, windless days, and high BP and low WS during the 3-day sequence. During the warm period, the greatest DV was associated with increased BP and changing WS during the 3-day sequence. These results suggest that daily T, BP, and WS on the day of the ambulance call and on the two previous days may be prognostic variables for the risk of ACS.

Convection anomalies associated with warm eddy at the coastal area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, R.; Wang, D.

2017-12-01

A possible correlation between a warm eddy and thunderstorms and convective precipitations are investigated at the coastal area in the northwestern South China Sea. Compared to the climatological mean in August from 2006 to 2013, an extreme enhancement of thunderstorm activities and precipitation rate are identified at the southern offshore area of Hainan island in August 2010 when a strong and long-live warm eddy was observed near the coastline at the same time. The 3 hourly satellite data (TRMM) indicate that the nocturnal convections is strong offshore and that could be responsible for the extreme positive anomalies of thunderstorms and rainfall in August 2010. The TRMM data also show a small reduction of thunderstorm activities and rainfall on the island in the afternoon. Meanwhile, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was applied to simulate the change of rainfall in August 2010. The WRF simulation of rainfall rate is comparable with the observation results while there is some difference in the spatial distribution. The WRF simulation successfully captured the strong offshore rainfall and the diurnal variation of rainfall in August 2010. The WRF simulation indicated that the different convergence induced by sea/land breeze could be one essential reason for the adjustment of thunderstorms and rainfall in 2010. The substantial connection between sea/land breeze and upper layer heat content modified by the warm eddy is still on ongoing and will be reported in the future work.

Weathering and landscape evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turkington, Alice V.; Phillips, Jonathan D.; Campbell, Sean W.

2005-04-01

In recognition of the fundamental control exerted by weathering on landscape evolution and topographic development, the 35th Binghamton Geomorphology Symposium was convened under the theme of Weathering and Landscape Evolution. The papers and posters presented at the conference imparted the state-of-the-art in weathering geomorphology, tackled the issue of scale linkage in geomorphic studies and offered a vehicle for interdisciplinary communication on research into weathering and landscape evolution. The papers included in this special issue are encapsulated here under the general themes of weathering mantles, weathering and relative dating, weathering and denudation, weathering processes and controls and the 'big picture'.

Ten-year variability in ecosystem water use efficiency in an oak-dominated temperate forest under a warming climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, Jing; Chen, Jiquan; Sun, Ge

The impacts of extreme weather events on water-carbon (C) coupling and ecosystem-scale water use efficiency (WUE) over a long term are poorly understood. We analyzed the changes in ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) from 10 years of eddy-covariance measurements (2004-2013) over an oak-dominated temperate forest in Ohio, USA. The aim was to investigate the long-term response of ecosystem WUE to measured changes in site-biophysical conditions and ecosystem attributes. The oak forest produced new plant biomass of 2.5 +/- 0.2 gC kg(-1) of water loss annually. Monthly evapotranspiration (ET) and gross ecosystem production (GEP) were tightly coupled over the 10-year studymore » period (R-2=0.94). Daily WUE had a linear relationship with air temperature (T-a) in low-temperature months and a unimodal relationship with T-a in high-temperature months during the growing season. On average, daily WUE ceased to increase when T-a exceeded 22 degrees C in warm months for both wet and dry years. Monthly WUE had a strong positive linear relationship with leaf area index (LAI), net radiation (R-n), and T-a and weak logarithmic relationship with water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and precipitation (P) on a growing-season basis. When exploring the regulatory mechanisms on WUE within each season, spring LAI and P, summer R-n and T-a, and autumnal VPD and R-n were found to be the main explanatory variables for seasonal variation in WUE. The model developed in this study was able to capture 78% of growing-season variation in WUE on a monthly basis. The negative correlation between WUE and A in spring was mainly due to the high precipitation amounts in spring, decreasing GEP and WUE when LAI was still small, adding ET being observed to increase with high levels of evaporation as a result of high SWC in spring. Summer WUE had a significant decreasing trend across the 10 years mainly due to the combined effect of seasonal drought and increasing potential and available energy increasing

Ten-year variability in ecosystem water use efficiency in an oak-dominated temperate forest under a warming climate

DOE PAGES

Xie, Jing; Chen, Jiquan; Sun, Ge; ...

2016-01-07

The impacts of extreme weather events on water-carbon (C) coupling and ecosystem-scale water use efficiency (WUE) over a long term are poorly understood. We analyzed the changes in ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) from 10 years of eddy-covariance measurements (2004-2013) over an oak-dominated temperate forest in Ohio, USA. The aim was to investigate the long-term response of ecosystem WUE to measured changes in site-biophysical conditions and ecosystem attributes. The oak forest produced new plant biomass of 2.5 +/- 0.2 gC kg(-1) of water loss annually. Monthly evapotranspiration (ET) and gross ecosystem production (GEP) were tightly coupled over the 10-year studymore » period (R-2=0.94). Daily WUE had a linear relationship with air temperature (T-a) in low-temperature months and a unimodal relationship with T-a in high-temperature months during the growing season. On average, daily WUE ceased to increase when T-a exceeded 22 degrees C in warm months for both wet and dry years. Monthly WUE had a strong positive linear relationship with leaf area index (LAI), net radiation (R-n), and T-a and weak logarithmic relationship with water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and precipitation (P) on a growing-season basis. When exploring the regulatory mechanisms on WUE within each season, spring LAI and P, summer R-n and T-a, and autumnal VPD and R-n were found to be the main explanatory variables for seasonal variation in WUE. The model developed in this study was able to capture 78% of growing-season variation in WUE on a monthly basis. The negative correlation between WUE and A in spring was mainly due to the high precipitation amounts in spring, decreasing GEP and WUE when LAI was still small, adding ET being observed to increase with high levels of evaporation as a result of high SWC in spring. Summer WUE had a significant decreasing trend across the 10 years mainly due to the combined effect of seasonal drought and increasing potential and available energy increasing

Alpine Warming induced Nitrogen Export from Green Lakes Valley, Colorado Front Range, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, R. T.; Williams, M. W.; Parman, J.

2012-12-01

Alpine ecosystems are particularly susceptible to disturbance due to their short growing seasons, sparse vegetation and thin soils. Atmospheric nitrogen deposition and warming temperatures currently affect Green Lakes Valley (GLV) within the Colorado Front Range. Research conducted within the alpine links chronic nitrogen inputs to a suite of ecological impacts, resulting in increased nitrate export. According to NADP records at the site, the atmospheric flux of nitrogen has decreased by 0.56 kg ha-1 yr-1 since 2000, due to a decrease in precipitation. Concurrent with this decrease, alpine nitrate yields have continued to increase; by 32% relative to the previous decade (1990-1999). In order to determine the source(s) of the sustained nitrate increases we utilized long term datasets to construct a mass balance model for four stream segments (glacier to subalpine) for nitrogen and weathering product constituents. We also compared geochemical fingerprints of various solute sources (glacial meltwater, thawing permafrost, snow, and stream water) to alpine stream water to determine if sources had changed over time. Long term trends indicate that in addition to increases in nitrate; sulfate, calcium, and silica have also increased over the same period. The geochemical composition of thawing permafrost (as indicated by rock glacial meltwater) suggests it is the source of these weathering products. Mass balance results indicate the high ammonium loads within glacial meltwater are rapidly nitrified, contributing approximately 0.45 kg yr-1 to the NO3- flux within the upper reaches of the watershed. The sustained export of these solutes during dry, summer months is likely facilitated by thawing cryosphere providing hydraulic connectivity late into the growing season. In a neighboring catchment, lacking permafrost and glacial features, there were no long term weathering or nitrogen solute trends; providing further evidence that the changes in alpine chemistry in GLV are likely

Staging Life in an Early Warm ‘Seltzer’ Ocean

DOE PAGES

Schoonen, Martin; Smirnov, Alexander

2016-12-01

A period as short as 20 million years within the first 100 million years after the formation of the Moon may have set the stage for the origin of life. This atmosphere contained more carbon dioxide than any other period afterwards. The carbon dioxide sustained greenhouse conditions, accelerated the weathering of a primitive crust and may have led to conditions conducive to the formation of the building blocks of life. The conversion of CO 2 as well as N 2 may have been facilitated by clays, zeolites, sulfides and metal alloys formed as the crust reacted with a warm ‘seltzer’more » ocean. We used geochemical modeling to constrain the conditions favorable for the formation of these potential mineral catalysts.« less

Staging Life in an Early Warm ‘Seltzer’ Ocean

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schoonen, Martin; Smirnov, Alexander

A period as short as 20 million years within the first 100 million years after the formation of the Moon may have set the stage for the origin of life. This atmosphere contained more carbon dioxide than any other period afterwards. The carbon dioxide sustained greenhouse conditions, accelerated the weathering of a primitive crust and may have led to conditions conducive to the formation of the building blocks of life. The conversion of CO 2 as well as N 2 may have been facilitated by clays, zeolites, sulfides and metal alloys formed as the crust reacted with a warm ‘seltzer’more » ocean. We used geochemical modeling to constrain the conditions favorable for the formation of these potential mineral catalysts.« less

Funnel Beaker weather (6200-4900 cal BP) - reconstructed from the palaeolimnological record of synchronously deposited varves in northern Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dreibrodt, Stefan; Zahrer, Jürgen; Brauer, Achim

2013-04-01

Depositional patterns of synchronously deposited varves of Lake Belauer See and Lake Poggensee (northern Germany) were studied on thin sections under the microscope comparatively. Events and trends that occurred synchronously in the lake systems were detected and interpret as limnologic responses to supra-regional extrinsic (climate) drivers. The different thresholds of the compared lake systems implied by different lake size were utilized to infer about weather conditions. For Lake Belauer See microfacies types of sub-recent varves were proved to reflect responses of certain meteorological conditions (e.g. severity of winters). A short weather anomaly at around 5950 cal BP was detected. Cold summers of about 40 successive years (probably with sudden frost events) lead to breaks of the thermal summer stratification and the associated carbonate precipitation. Instead renewed blooms of planctic diatoms occurred. The subsequent interval of the Funnel Beaker Culture seems to have experienced a period with favorable wea¬ther conditions, with warm summers and not extra-ordinary severe winters. Between ca. 5400 and 5340 cal BP an interval with pronounced warm winters is indicated. The favorable weather conditions termina¬ted abruptly at around 5275 cal BP when the weather (in particular summers) became colder. The comparison of the sediment sequences also provides evidence for the asynchronic onset of anthropogenic activity in the catchment areas of the lakes. A significant increase of minerogenic matter (quartz grains) indication soil erosion in the lake catchment started at ca. 3850 cal BC in Lake Poggensee, and at ca. 3500 cal BC in Lake Belau. Cycles of minerogenic input have been detected with duration of 20-25 years. Whether these cycles could represent slash and burn cycles has to be studied further.

Seawater and Detrital Marine Pb Isotopes as Monitors of Antarctic Weathering Following Ice Sheet Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenn, C.; Martin, E. E.; Basak, C.

2011-12-01

Comparisons of seawater and detrital Pb isotopes from sites proximal to Antarctica at the Eocene/Oligocene transition (EOT) are being used to understand variations in continental weathering associated with the development of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS). Previous work has shown that seawater and detrital archives yield similar isotopic values during Eocene warmth, which is interpreted to record congruent chemical weathering of the continent. In contrast, distinct isotopic values for the two phases at the EOT represents increased incongruent mechanical weathering during growth of the ice sheet. For this study we expanded beyond the initial glaciation at the EOT to determine whether less dramatic changes in ice volume and climate also produce variations in weathering and intensity that are recorded by seawater and detrital Pb isotopes. We collected Nd and Pb isotope data from extractions of Fe-Mn oxide coatings of bulk decarbonated marine sediments, which preserve seawater isotopic values, and from complete dissolutions of the remaining silicate fraction for Ocean Drilling Program Site 748 on Kerguelen Plateau (1300 m modern water depth). The data spans an interval of deglaciation from ~23.5-27 Ma documented by δ18O that has been equated to a ~30% decrease in ice volume on Antarctica (Pekar and Christie-Blick, 2008, Palaeogeogr., Palaeoclim., Palaeoecol.). Initial results from Site 748 include the first ɛNd values for intermediate waters in the Oligocene Southern Ocean and reveal a value of ~-8 over the entire 3.5 my interval, which is consistent with values reported for deep Indian Ocean sites at this time and similar to deeper Southern Ocean sites. Corresponding detrital ɛNd values are less radiogenic and decrease from -9 to -13 during the study interval. Detrital 206Pb/204Pb values also decrease during the warming interval, while seawater 206Pb/204Pb values increase. The decrease in detrital values indicates the composition of source materials entering

Reproducibility of Carbon and Water Cycle by an Ecosystem Process Based Model Using a Weather Generator and Effect of Temporal Concentration of Precipitation on Model Outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyauchi, T.; Machimura, T.

2014-12-01

GCM is generally used to produce input weather data for the simulation of carbon and water cycle by ecosystem process based models under climate change however its temporal resolution is sometimes incompatible to requirement. A weather generator (WG) is used for temporal downscaling of input weather data for models, where the effect of WG algorithms on reproducibility of ecosystem model outputs must be assessed. In this study simulated carbon and water cycle by Biome-BGC model using weather data measured and generated by CLIMGEN weather generator were compared. The measured weather data (daily precipitation, maximum, minimum air temperature) at a few sites for 30 years was collected from NNDC Online weather data. The generated weather data was produced by CLIMGEN parameterized using the measured weather data. NPP, heterotrophic respiration (HR), NEE and water outflow were simulated by Biome-BGC using measured and generated weather data. In the case of deciduous broad leaf forest in Lushi, Henan Province, China, 30 years average monthly NPP by WG was 10% larger than that by measured weather in the growing season. HR by WG was larger than that by measured weather in all months by 15% in average. NEE by WG was more negative in winter and was close to that by measured weather in summer. These differences in carbon cycle were because the soil water content by WG was larger than that by measured weather. The difference between monthly water outflow by WG and by measured weather was large and variable, and annual outflow by WG was 50% of that by measured weather. The inconsistency in carbon and water cycle by WG and measured weather was suggested be affected by the difference in temporal concentration of precipitation, which was assessed.

Climate Throughout Geologic Time Was Cooled by Sequences of Explosive Volcanic Eruptions Forming Aerosols That Reflect and Scatter Ultraviolet Solar Radiation and Warmed by Relatively Continuous Extrusion of Basaltic Lava that Depletes Ozone, Allowing More Solar Ultraviolet Radiation to Reach Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P. L.

2015-12-01

Active volcanoes of all sizes and eruptive styles, emit chlorine and bromine gases observed to deplete ozone. Effusive, basaltic volcanic eruptions, typical in Hawaii and Iceland, extrude large lava flows, depleting ozone and causing global warming. Major explosive volcanoes also deplete ozone with the same emissions, causing winter warming, but in addition eject megatons of water and sulfur dioxide into the lower stratosphere where they form sulfuric-acid aerosols whose particles grow large enough to reflect and scatter ultraviolet sunlight, causing net global cooling for a few years. The relative amounts of explosive and effusive volcanism are determined by the configuration of tectonic plates moving around Earth's surface. Detailed studies of climate change throughout geologic history, and since 1965, are not well explained by greenhouse-gas theory, but are explained quite clearly at OzoneDepletionTheory.info. Ozone concentrations vary substantially by the minute and show close relationships to weather system highs and lows (as pointed out by Dobson in the 1920s), to the height of the tropopause, and to the strength and location of polar vortices and jet streams. Integrating the effects of volcanism on ozone concentrations and the effects of ozone concentrations on synoptic weather patterns should improve weather forecasting. For example, the volcano Bárðarbunga, in central Iceland, extruded 85 km2 of basaltic lava between August 29, 2014, and February 28, 2015, having a profound effect on weather. Most surprising, more than a week before the March 4 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, substantial amounts of ozone were released in the vicinity of the volcano precisely when surface deformation showed that magma first began moving up from sills below 4 km depth. Ozone similarly appears to have been emitted 3.5 months before the Pinatubo eruption in 1991. Readily available daily maps of ozone concentrations may allow early warning of an imminent volcanic

Weather data for simplified energy calculation methods. Volume IV. United States: WYEC data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olsen, A.R.; Moreno, S.; Deringer, J.

The objective of this report is to provide a source of weather data for direct use with a number of simplified energy calculation methods available today. Complete weather data for a number of cities in the United States are provided for use in the following methods: degree hour, modified degree hour, bin, modified bin, and variable degree day. This report contains sets of weather data for 23 cities using Weather Year for Energy Calculations (WYEC) source weather data. Considerable overlap is present in cities (21) covered by both the TRY and WYEC data. The weather data at each city hasmore » been summarized in a number of ways to provide differing levels of detail necessary for alternative simplified energy calculation methods. Weather variables summarized include dry bulb and wet bulb temperature, percent relative humidity, humidity ratio, wind speed, percent possible sunshine, percent diffuse solar radiation, total solar radiation on horizontal and vertical surfaces, and solar heat gain through standard DSA glass. Monthly and annual summaries, in some cases by time of day, are available. These summaries are produced in a series of nine computer generated tables.« less

UTM Weather Presentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chan, William N.; Kopardekar, Parimal H.; Carmichael, Bruce; Cornman, Larry

2017-01-01

Presentation highlighting how weather affected UAS operations during the UTM field tests. Research to develop UAS weather translation models with a description of current and future work for UTM weather.

Reconstruction of Historical Weather by Assimilating Old Weather Diary Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neluwala, P.; Yoshimura, K.; Toride, K.; Hirano, J.; Ichino, M.; Okazaki, A.

2017-12-01

Climate can control not only human life style but also other living beings. It is important to investigate historical climate to understand the current and future climates. Information about daily weather can give a better understanding of past life on earth. Long-term weather influences crop calendar as well as the development of civilizations. Unfortunately, existing reconstructed daily weather data are limited to 1850s due to the availability of instrumental data. The climate data prior to that are derived from proxy materials (e.g., tree-ring width, ice core isotopes, etc.) which are either in annual or decadal scale. However, there are many historical documents which contain information about weather such as personal diaries. In Japan, around 20 diaries in average during the 16th - 19th centuries have been collected and converted into a digitized form. As such, diary data exist in many other countries. This study aims to reconstruct historical daily weather during the 18th and 19th centuries using personal daily diaries which have analogue weather descriptions such as `cloudy' or `sunny'. A recent study has shown the possibility of assimilating coarse weather data using idealized experiments. We further extend this study by assimilating modern weather descriptions similar to diary data in recent periods. The Global Spectral model (GSM) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used to reconstruct weather with the Local Ensemble Kalman filter (LETKF). Descriptive data are first converted to model variables such as total cloud cover (TCC), solar radiation and precipitation using empirical relationships. Those variables are then assimilated on a daily basis after adding random errors to consider the uncertainty of actual diary data. The assimilation of downward short wave solar radiation using weather descriptions improves RMSE from 64.3 w/m2 to 33.0 w/m2 and correlation coefficient (R) from 0.5 to 0.8 compared with the case without any

Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Guojian; Cai, Wenju; Gan, Bolan; Wu, Lixin; Santoso, Agus; Lin, Xiaopei; Chen, Zhaohui; McPhaden, Michael J.

2017-08-01

The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global mean temperature (GMT) increases to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5 °C. However, the pathway to these targets and the impacts of a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming on extreme El Niño and La Niña events--which severely influence weather patterns, agriculture, ecosystems, public health and economies--is little known. Here, by analysing climate models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project's Phase 5 (CMIP5; ref. ) under a most likely emission scenario, we demonstrate that extreme El Niño frequency increases linearly with the GMT towards a doubling at 1.5 °C warming. This increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events continues for up to a century after GMT has stabilized, underpinned by an oceanic thermocline deepening that sustains faster warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific than the off-equatorial region. Ultimately, this implies a higher risk of extreme El Niño to future generations after GMT rise has halted. On the other hand, whereas previous research suggests extreme La Niña events may double in frequency under the 4.5 °C warming scenario, the results presented here indicate little to no change under 1.5 °C or 2 °C warming.

Chronic warming stimulates growth of marsh grasses more than mangroves in a coastal wetland ecotone.

PubMed

Coldren, G A; Barreto, C R; Wykoff, D D; Morrissey, E M; Langley, J A; Feller, I C; Chapman, S K

2016-11-01

Increasing temperatures and a reduction in the frequency and severity of freezing events have been linked to species distribution shifts. Across the globe, mangrove ranges are expanding toward higher latitudes, likely due to diminishing frequency of freezing events associated with climate change. Continued warming will alter coastal wetland plant dynamics both above- and belowground, potentially altering plant capacity to keep up with sea level rise. We conducted an in situ warming experiment, in northeast Florida, to determine how increased temperature (+2°C) influences co-occurring mangrove and salt marsh plants. Warming was achieved using passive warming with three treatment levels (ambient, shade control, warmed). Avicennia germinans, the black mangrove, exhibited no differences in growth or height due to experimental warming, but displayed a warming-induced increase in leaf production (48%). Surprisingly, Distichlis spicata, the dominant salt marsh grass, increased in biomass (53% in 2013 and 70% in 2014), density (41%) and height (18%) with warming during summer months. Warming decreased plant root mass at depth and changed abundances of anaerobic bacterial taxa. Even while the poleward shift of mangroves is clearly controlled by the occurrences of severe freezes, chronic warming between these freeze events may slow the progression of mangrove dominance within ecotones. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events.

PubMed

Mann, Michael E; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A; Miller, Sonya K; Coumou, Dim

2017-03-27

Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6-8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art ("CMIP5") historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.

Weather Types, temperature and relief relationship in the Iberian Peninsula: A regional adiabatic processes under directional weather types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peña Angulo, Dhais; Trigo, Ricardo; Cortesi, Nicola; Gonzalez-Hidalgo, Jose Carlos

2016-04-01

We have analyzed at monthly scale the spatial distribution of Pearson correlation between monthly mean of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures with weather types (WTs) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP), represent them in a high spatial resolution grid (10km x 10km) from MOTEDAS dataset (Gonzalez-Hidalgo et al., 2015a). The WT classification was that developed by Jenkinson and Collison, adapted to the Iberian Peninsula by Trigo and DaCamara, using Sea Level Pressure data from NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis dataset (period 1951-2010). The spatial distribution of Pearson correlations shows a clear zonal gradient in Tmax under the zonal advection produced in westerly (W) and easterly (E) flows, with negative correlation in the coastland where the air mass come from but positive correlation to the inland areas. The same is true under North-West (NW), North-East (NE), South-West (SW) and South-East (SE) WTs. These spatial gradients are coherent with the spatial distribution of the main mountain chain and offer an example of regional adiabatic phenomena that affect the entire IP (Peña-Angulo et al., 2015b). These spatial gradients have not been observed in Tmin. We suggest that Tmin values are less sensitive to changes in Sea Level Pressure and more related to local factors. These directional WT present a monthly frequency over 10 days and could be a valuable tool for downscaling processes. González-Hidalgo J.C., Peña-Angulo D., Brunetti M., Cortesi, C. (2015a): MOTEDAS: a new monthly temperature database for mainland Spain and the trend in temperature (1951-2010). International Journal of Climatology 31, 715-731. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4298 Peña-Angulo, D., Trigo, R., Cortesi, C., González-Hidalgo, J.C. (2015b): The influence of weather types on the monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula. Submitted to Hydrology and Earth System Sciences.

Assessing Climate Change in Early Warm Season and Impacts on Wildfire Potential in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Kim, S. H.; Kim, J.; Nghiem, S. V.; Fujioka, F.; Myoung, B.

2016-12-01

Wildfires are an important concern in the Southwestern United States (SWUS) where the prevalent semi-arid to arid climate, vegetation types and hot and dry warm seasons challenge strategic fire management. Although they are part of the natural cycle related to the region's climate, significant growth of urban areas and expansion of the wildland-urban interface, have made wildfires a serious high-risk hazard. Previous studies also showed that the SWUS region is prone to frequent droughts due to large variations in wet season rainfall and has suffered from a number of severe wildfires in the recent decades. Despite the increasing trend in large wildfires, future wildfire risk assessment studies at regional scales for proactive adaptations are lacking. Our previous study revealed strong correlations between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and temperatures during March-June in SWUS. The abnormally warm and dry conditions in an NAO-positive spring, combined with reduced winter precipitation, can cause an early start of a fire season and extend it for several seasons, from late spring to fall. A strong interannual variation of the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) during the early warm season was also found in the 35 year period 1979 - 2013 of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Thus, it is crucial to investigate the climate change impact that early warm season temperatures have on future wildfire danger potential. Our study reported here examines fine-resolution fire-weather variables for 2041-2070 projected in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The high-resolution climate data were obtained from multiple regional climate models (RCM) driven by multiple climate scenarios projected from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in conjunction with multiple greenhouse gas concentration pathways. The local wildfire potential in future climate is investigated using both the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and the

Privacy Policy of NOAA's National Weather Service - NOAA's National Weather

Science.gov Websites

Safety Weather Radio Hazard Assmt... StormReady / TsunamiReady Skywarn(tm) Education/Outreach Information , and National Weather Service information collection practices. This Privacy Policy Statement applies only to National Weather Service web sites. Some organizations within NOAA may have other information

Study of the Weathering Process of Gasoline by eNose

PubMed Central

Aliaño-González, María José; Ayuso, Jesús; Palma, Miguel; Barroso, Carmelo G.

2018-01-01

In a fire investigation the rapid detection of the presence of ignitable liquids like gasoline is of great importance as it allows appropriate treatment of the remains, the identification of prevention methods and detects the possible presence of an arsonist. In some cases, analysts cannot access the fire scene in the first few hours due to the dangers involved in the situation and, as a consequence, phenomena such as weathering start. Ignitable liquid weathering is an evaporation process that results in an increase in the abundance of non-volatile compounds relative to volatile compounds, and this process changes the chemical composition. In the present work, the weathering of samples of gasoline at different times (from 0 h to a month) has been studied using an electronic nose (eNose). The influence of the volume used (40 µL and 80 µL) and the type of support (cork, wood, paper and cotton sheet) has been studied. Chemometric tools have been used with the aim of ascertaining the weathering time for which the developed method is capable of detecting the presence of gasoline. The eNose was able to discriminate samples of weathered gasoline. The support used for the samples did not seem to have an influence on the detection and the system. PMID:29304020

More frequent showers and thunderstorms under a warming climate: evidence observed in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, H.; Fetzer, E. J.; Wong, S.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Wang, T.; Chen, L. L.; Von, D.

2015-12-01

This study uses historical records of synoptic observations over northern Eurasia to examine changing frequency of precipitation associated with large synoptic events versus convective and thunderstorm activities. We found days associated with showers and precipitation accompanied by thunderstorms have been increasing in general during the study period of 1966-2000 while the total wet day frequency has been decreasing in all seasons. This study suggests increasing convective and severe weather-related precipitation events may be a significant contributor to higher intensity and more extreme precipitation under a warming climate.

A study of the correlation between dengue and weather in Kandy City, Sri Lanka (2003 -2012) and lessons learned.

PubMed

Ehelepola, N D B; Ariyaratne, Kusalika; Buddhadasa, W M N P; Ratnayake, Sunil; Wickramasinghe, Malani

2015-09-24

Weather variables affect dengue transmission. This study aimed to identify a dengue weather correlation pattern in Kandy, Sri Lanka, compare the results with results of similar studies, and establish ways for better control and prevention of dengue. We collected data on reported dengue cases in Kandy and mid-year population data from 2003 to 2012, and calculated weekly incidences. We obtained daily weather data from two weather stations and converted it into weekly data. We studied correlation patterns between dengue incidence and weather variables using the wavelet time series analysis, and then calculated cross-correlation coefficients to find magnitudes of correlations. We found a positive correlation between dengue incidence and rainfall in millimeters, the number of rainy and wet days, the minimum temperature, and the night and daytime, as well as average, humidity, mostly with a five- to seven-week lag. Additionally, we found correlations between dengue incidence and maximum and average temperatures, hours of sunshine, and wind, with longer lag periods. Dengue incidences showed a negative correlation with wind run. Our results showed that rainfall, temperature, humidity, hours of sunshine, and wind are correlated with local dengue incidence. We have suggested ways to improve dengue management routines and to control it in these times of global warming. We also noticed that the results of dengue weather correlation studies can vary depending on the data analysis.

Non-stationarity of extreme weather events in a changing climate - an application to long-term droughts in the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.

2013-12-01

Return periods of many extreme weather events are not stationary over time, given increasing risks due to global warming and multidecadal variability resulting from large scale climate patterns. This is problematic as extreme weather events and long-term climate risks such as droughts are typically conceptualized via measures such as return periods that implicitly assume non-stationarity. I briefly review these problems and present an application to the non-stationarity of droughts in the US Southwest. The US Southwest relies on annual precipitation maxima during winter and the North American Monsoon (NAM), both of which vary with large-scale climate patterns, in particular ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The latter two exhibit variability on longer (multi-decadal) time scales in addition to short-term variations. The region is also part of the subtropical belt projected to become more arid in a warming climate. The possible multidecadal impacts of the PDO on precipitation in the study region are analyzed with a focus on Arizona and New Mexico, using GPCC and CRU data since 1900. The projected impacts of the PDO on annual precipitation during the next three decades with GPCC data are similar in scale to the impacts of global warming on precipitation according to the A1B scenario and the CMIP2 multi-model means, while the combined impact of the PDO and AMO is about 19% larger. The effects according to the CRU dataset are about half as large as the projected global warming impacts. Given the magnitude of the projected impacts from both multidecadal variability and global warming, water management needs to explicitly incorporate both of these trends into long-term planning. Multi-decadal variability could be incorporated into the concept of return periods by presenting return periods as time-varying or as conditional on the respective 'phase' of relevant multidecadal patterns and on global warming. Problems

Impact of selected personal factors on seasonal variability of recreationist weather perceptions and preferences in Warsaw (Poland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindner-Cendrowska, Katarzyna; Błażejczyk, Krzysztof

2018-01-01

Weather and climate are important natural resources for tourism and recreation, although sometimes they can make outdoor leisure activities less satisfying or even impossible. The aim of this work was to determine weather perception seasonal variability of people staying outdoors in urban environment for tourism and recreation, as well as to determine if personal factors influence estimation of recreationist actual biometeorological conditions and personal expectations towards weather elements. To investigate how human thermal sensations vary upon meteorological conditions typical for temperate climate, weather perception field researches were conducted in Warsaw (Poland) in all seasons. Urban recreationists' preference for slightly warm thermal conditions, sunny, windless and cloudless weather, were identified as well as PET values considered to be optimal for sightseeing were defined between 27.3 and 31.7 °C. The results confirmed existence of phenomena called alliesthesia, which manifested in divergent thermal perception of comparable biometeorological conditions in transitional seasons. The results suggest that recreationist thermal sensations differed from other interviewees' responses and were affected not only by physiological processes but they were also conditioned by psychological factors (i.e. attitude, expectations). Significant impact of respondents' place of origin and its climate on creating thermal sensations and preferences was observed. Sex and age influence thermal preferences, whereas state of acclimatization is related with thermal sensations to some point.

Impact of selected personal factors on seasonal variability of recreationist weather perceptions and preferences in Warsaw (Poland).

PubMed

Lindner-Cendrowska, Katarzyna; Błażejczyk, Krzysztof

2018-01-01

Weather and climate are important natural resources for tourism and recreation, although sometimes they can make outdoor leisure activities less satisfying or even impossible. The aim of this work was to determine weather perception seasonal variability of people staying outdoors in urban environment for tourism and recreation, as well as to determine if personal factors influence estimation of recreationist actual biometeorological conditions and personal expectations towards weather elements. To investigate how human thermal sensations vary upon meteorological conditions typical for temperate climate, weather perception field researches were conducted in Warsaw (Poland) in all seasons. Urban recreationists' preference for slightly warm thermal conditions, sunny, windless and cloudless weather, were identified as well as PET values considered to be optimal for sightseeing were defined between 27.3 and 31.7 °C. The results confirmed existence of phenomena called alliesthesia, which manifested in divergent thermal perception of comparable biometeorological conditions in transitional seasons. The results suggest that recreationist thermal sensations differed from other interviewees' responses and were affected not only by physiological processes but they were also conditioned by psychological factors (i.e. attitude, expectations). Significant impact of respondents' place of origin and its climate on creating thermal sensations and preferences was observed. Sex and age influence thermal preferences, whereas state of acclimatization is related with thermal sensations to some point.

weather@home 2: validation of an improved global-regional climate modelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillod, Benoit P.; Jones, Richard G.; Bowery, Andy; Haustein, Karsten; Massey, Neil R.; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Uhe, Peter; Wallom, David C. H.; Wilson, Simon; Allen, Myles R.

2017-05-01

Extreme weather events can have large impacts on society and, in many regions, are expected to change in frequency and intensity with climate change. Owing to the relatively short observational record, climate models are useful tools as they allow for generation of a larger sample of extreme events, to attribute recent events to anthropogenic climate change, and to project changes in such events into the future. The modelling system known as weather@home, consisting of a global climate model (GCM) with a nested regional climate model (RCM) and driven by sea surface temperatures, allows one to generate a very large ensemble with the help of volunteer distributed computing. This is a key tool to understanding many aspects of extreme events. Here, a new version of the weather@home system (weather@home 2) with a higher-resolution RCM over Europe is documented and a broad validation of the climate is performed. The new model includes a more recent land-surface scheme in both GCM and RCM, where subgrid-scale land-surface heterogeneity is newly represented using tiles, and an increase in RCM resolution from 50 to 25 km. The GCM performs similarly to the previous version, with some improvements in the representation of mean climate. The European RCM temperature biases are overall reduced, in particular the warm bias over eastern Europe, but large biases remain. Precipitation is improved over the Alps in summer, with mixed changes in other regions and seasons. The model is shown to represent the main classes of regional extreme events reasonably well and shows a good sensitivity to its drivers. In particular, given the improvements in this version of the weather@home system, it is likely that more reliable statements can be made with regards to impact statements, especially at more localized scales.

Potential and costs of carbon dioxide removal by enhanced weathering of rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strefler, Jessica; Amann, Thorben; Bauer, Nico; Kriegler, Elmar; Hartmann, Jens

2018-03-01

The chemical weathering of rocks currently absorbs about 1.1 Gt CO2 a-1 being mainly stored as bicarbonate in the ocean. An enhancement of this slow natural process could remove substantial amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere, aiming to offset some unavoidable anthropogenic emissions in order to comply with the Paris Agreement, while at the same time it may decrease ocean acidification. We provide the first comprehensive assessment of economic costs, energy requirements, technical parameterization, and global and regional carbon removal potential. The crucial parameters defining this potential are the grain size and weathering rates. The main uncertainties about the potential relate to weathering rates and rock mass that can be integrated into the soil. The discussed results do not specifically address the enhancement of weathering through microbial processes, feedback of geogenic nutrient release, and bioturbation. We do not only assess dunite rock, predominantly bearing olivine (in the form of forsterite) as the mineral that has been previously proposed to be best suited for carbon removal, but focus also on basaltic rock to minimize potential negative side effects. Our results show that enhanced weathering is an option for carbon dioxide removal that could be competitive already at 60 US  t-1 CO2 removed for dunite, but only at 200 US  t-1 CO2 removed for basalt. The potential carbon removal on cropland areas could be as large as 95 Gt CO2 a-1 for dunite and 4.9 Gt CO2 a-1 for basalt. The best suited locations are warm and humid areas, particularly in India, Brazil, South-East Asia and China, where almost 75% of the global potential can be realized. This work presents a techno-economic assessment framework, which also allows for the incorporation of further processes.

Climate, weather, socio-economic and electricity usage data for the residential and commercial sectors in FL, U.S.

PubMed

Mukhopadhyay, Sayanti; Nateghi, Roshanak

2017-08-01

This paper presents the data that is used in the article entitled "Climate sensitivity of end-use electricity consumption in the built environment: An application to the state of Florida, United States" (Mukhopadhyay and Nateghi, 2017) [1]. The data described in this paper pertains to the state of Florida (during the period of January 1990 to November 2015). It can be classified into four categories of (i) state-level electricity consumption data; (ii) climate data; (iii) weather data; and (iv) socio-economic data. While, electricity consumption data and climate data are obtained at monthly scale directly from the source, the weather data was initially obtained at daily-level, and then aggregated to monthly level for the purpose of analysis. The time scale of socio-economic data varies from monthly-level to yearly-level. This dataset can be used to analyze the influence of climate and weather on the electricity demand as described in Mukhopadhyay and Nateghi (2017) [1].

Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.

2017-01-01

Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.

A 400-year ice core melt layer record of summertime warming in the Alaska Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winski, D.; Osterberg, E. C.; Kreutz, K. J.; Wake, C. P.; Ferris, D. G.; Campbell, S. W.; Baum, M.; Raudzens Bailey, A.; Birkel, S. D.; Introne, D.; Handley, M.

2017-12-01

Warming in high-elevation regions has socially relevant impacts on glacier mass balance, water resources, and sensitive alpine ecosystems, yet very few high-elevation temperature records exist from the middle or high latitudes. While many terrestrial paleoclimate records provide critical temperature records from low elevations over recent centuries, melt layers preserved in alpine glaciers present an opportunity to develop calibrated, annually-resolved temperature records from high elevations. We present a 400-year temperature record based on the melt-layer stratigraphy in two ice cores collected from Mt. Hunter in the Central Alaska Range. The ice core record shows a 60-fold increase in melt frequency and water equivalent melt thickness between the pre-industrial period (before 1850) and present day. We calibrate the melt record to summer temperatures based on local and regional weather station analyses, and find that the increase in melt production represents a summer warming of at least 2° C, exceeding rates of temperature increase at most low elevation sites in Alaska. The Mt. Hunter melt layer record is significantly (p<0.05) correlated with surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific through a Rossby-wave like pattern that induces high temperatures over Alaska. Our results show that rapid alpine warming has taken place in the Alaska Range for at least a century, and that conditions in the tropical oceans contribute to this warming.

The effect of temperature on different Salmonella serotypes during warm seasons in a Mediterranean climate city, Adelaide, Australia.

PubMed

Milazzo, A; Giles, L C; Zhang, Y; Koehler, A P; Hiller, J E; Bi, P

2016-04-01

Changing trends in foodborne disease are influenced by many factors, including temperature. Globally and in Australia, warmer ambient temperatures are projected to rise if climate change continues. Salmonella spp. are a temperature-sensitive pathogen and rising temperature can have a substantial effect on disease burden affecting human health. We examined the relationship between temperature and Salmonella spp. and serotype notifications in Adelaide, Australia. Time-series Poisson regression models were fit to estimate the effect of temperature during warmer months on Salmonella spp. and serotype cases notified from 1990 to 2012. Long-term trends, seasonality, autocorrelation and lagged effects were included in the statistical models. Daily Salmonella spp. counts increased by 1·3% [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1·013, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·008-1·019] per 1 °C rise in temperature in the warm season with greater increases observed in specific serotype and phage-type cases ranging from 3·4% (IRR 1·034, 95% CI 1·008-1·061) to 4·4% (IRR 1·044, 95% CI 1·024-1·064). We observed increased cases of S. Typhimurium PT9 and S. Typhimurium PT108 notifications above a threshold of 39 °C. This study has identified the impact of warm season temperature on different Salmonella spp. strains and confirms higher temperature has a greater effect on phage-type notifications. The findings will contribute targeted information for public health policy interventions, including food safety programmes during warmer weather.

Analyses Reveal Record-Shattering Global Warm Temperatures in 2015

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-01-20

2015 was the warmest year since modern record-keeping began in 1880, according to a new analysis by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The record-breaking year continues a long-term warming trend — 15 of the 16 warmest years on record have now occurred since 2001. Credits: Scientific Visualization Studio/Goddard Space Flight Center Details: Earth’s 2015 surface temperatures were the warmest since modern record keeping began in 1880, according to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Globally-averaged temperatures in 2015 shattered the previous mark set in 2014 by 0.23 degrees Fahrenheit (0.13 Celsius). Only once before, in 1998, has the new record been greater than the old record by this much. The 2015 temperatures continue a long-term warming trend, according to analyses by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York (GISTEMP). NOAA scientists agreed with the finding that 2015 was the warmest year on record based on separate, independent analyses of the data. Because weather station locations and measurements change over time, there is some uncertainty in the individual values in the GISTEMP index. Taking this into account, NASA analysis estimates 2015 was the warmest year with 94 percent certainty.

Dynamic Weather Routes: A Weather Avoidance Concept for Trajectory-Based Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McNally, B. David; Love, John

2011-01-01

The integration of convective weather modeling with trajectory automation for conflict detection, trial planning, direct routing, and auto resolution has uncovered a concept that could help controllers, dispatchers, and pilots identify improved weather routes that result in significant savings in flying time and fuel burn. Trajectory automation continuously and automatically monitors aircraft in flight to find those that could potentially benefit from improved weather reroutes. Controllers, dispatchers, and pilots then evaluate reroute options to assess their suitability given current weather and traffic. In today's operations aircraft fly convective weather avoidance routes that were implemented often hours before aircraft approach the weather and automation does not exist to automatically monitor traffic to find improved weather routes that open up due to changing weather conditions. The automation concept runs in real-time and employs two keysteps. First, a direct routing algorithm automatically identifies flights with large dog legs in their routes and therefore potentially large savings in flying time. These are common - and usually necessary - during convective weather operations and analysis of Fort Worth Center traffic shows many aircraft with short cuts that indicate savings on the order of 10 flying minutes. The second and most critical step is to apply trajectory automation with weather modeling to determine what savings could be achieved by modifying the direct route such that it avoids weather and traffic and is acceptable to controllers and flight crews. Initial analysis of Fort Worth Center traffic suggests a savings of roughly 50% of the direct route savings could be achievable.The core concept is to apply trajectory automation with convective weather modeling in real time to identify a reroute that is free of weather and traffic conflicts and indicates enough time and fuel savings to be considered. The concept is interoperable with today

Warmer weather as a risk factor for hospitalisations due to urinary tract infections.

PubMed

Simmering, J E; Cavanaugh, J E; Polgreen, L A; Polgreen, P M

2018-02-01

The incidence of urinary tract infections (UTIs) is seasonal, and this seasonality may be explained by changes in weather, specifically, temperature. Using data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, we identified the geographic location for 581 813 hospital admissions with the primary diagnosis of a UTI and 56 630 773 non-UTI hospitalisations in the United States. Next, we used data from the National Climatic Data Center to estimate the monthly average temperature for each location. Using a case-control design, we modelled the odds of a hospital admission having a primary diagnosis of UTI as a function of demographics, payer, location, patient severity, admission month, year and the average temperature for the admission month. We found, after controlling for patient factors and month of admission, the odds of a UTI diagnosis increased with higher temperatures in a dose-dependent manner. For example, relative to months with average temperatures of 5-7.5 °C, an admission in a month with an average temperature of 27.5-30 °C has 20% higher odds of a primary diagnosis of UTI. However, in months with extremely high average temperatures (above 30 °C), the odds of a UTI admissions decrease, perhaps due to changes in behaviour. Thus, at a population level, UTI-related hospitalisations are associated with warmer weather.

Warm Dry Weather Conditions Cause of 2016 Fort McMurray Wild Forest Fire and Associated Air Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Azevedo, S. C.; Singh, R. P.; da Silva, E. A., Sr.

2016-12-01

The climate change is evident from the increasing temperature around the world, day to day life and increasing frequency of natural hazards. The warm and dry conditions are the cause of frequent forest fires around the globe. Forest fires severely affect the air quality and human health. Multi sensor satellites and dense network of ground stations provide information about vegetation health, meteorological, air quality and atmospheric parameters. We have carried out detailed analysis of satellite and ground data of wild forest fire that occurred in May 2016 in Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada. This wild forest fire destroyed 10 per cent of Fort McMurray's housing and forced more than 90,000 people to evacuate the surrounding areas. Our results show that the warm and dry conditions with low rainfall were the cause of Fort McMurray wild fire. The air quality parameters (particulate matter, CO, ozone, NO2, methane) and greenhouse gases measured from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) satellite show enhanced levels soon after the forest fire. The emissions from the forest fire affected health of population living in surrounding areas up to 300 km radius.

Activities in Teaching Weather

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tonn, Martin

1977-01-01

Presented is a unit composed of activities for teaching weather. Topics include cloud types and formation, simple weather instruments, and the weather station. Illustrations include a weather chart and instruments. A bibliography is given. (MA)

Space Weathering of Rocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noble, Sarah

2011-01-01

Space weathering discussions have generally centered around soils but exposed rocks will also incur the effects of weathering. On the Moon, rocks make up only a very small percentage of the exposed surface and areas where rocks are exposed, like central peaks, are often among the least space weathered regions we find in remote sensing data. However, our studies of weathered Ap 17 rocks 76015 and 76237 show that significant amounts of weathering products can build up on rock surfaces. Because rocks have much longer surface lifetimes than an individual soil grain, and thus record a longer history of exposure, we can study these products to gain a deeper perspective on the weathering process and better assess the relative impo!1ance of various weathering components on the Moon. In contrast to the lunar case, on small asteroids, like Itokowa, rocks make up a large fraction of the exposed surface. Results from the Hayabusa spacecraft at Itokowa suggest that while the low gravity does not allow for the development of a mature regolith, weathering patinas can and do develop on rock surfaces, in fact, the rocky surfaces were seen to be darker and appear spectrally more weathered than regions with finer materials. To explore how weathering of asteroidal rocks may differ from lunar, a set of ordinary chondrite meteorites (H, L, and LL) which have been subjected to artificial space weathering by nanopulse laser were examined by TEM. NpFe(sup 0) bearing glasses were ubiquitous in both the naturally-weathered lunar and the artificially-weathered meteorite samples.

NOAA's weather forecasts go hyper-local with next-generation weather

Science.gov Websites

model NOAA HOME WEATHER OCEANS FISHERIES CHARTING SATELLITES CLIMATE RESEARCH COASTS CAREERS with next-generation weather model New model will help forecasters predict a storm's path, timing and intensity better than ever September 30, 2014 This is a comparison of two weather forecast models looking

Cold-Weather Sports

MedlinePlus

... Videos for Educators Search English Español Cold-Weather Sports KidsHealth / For Teens / Cold-Weather Sports What's in this article? What to Do? Classes ... weather. What better time to be outdoors? Winter sports can help you burn calories, increase your cardiovascular ...

Winter honey bee colony losses, Varroa destructor control strategies, and the role of weather conditions: Results from a survey among beekeepers.

PubMed

Beyer, Marco; Junk, Jürgen; Eickermann, Michael; Clermont, Antoine; Kraus, François; Georges, Carlo; Reichart, Andreas; Hoffmann, Lucien

2018-06-01

Sets of treatments that were applied against varroa mites in the Luxembourgish beekeeper community were surveyed annually with a questionnaire between the winters 2010/11 and 2014/15. The average temperature and the precipitation sum of the month, when the respective varroa control method was applied were considered as co-variables when evaluating the efficacy of varroa control regimes. Success or failure of control regimes was evaluated based on the percentage of colonies lost per apiary in the winter following the treatment(s). Neither a positive nor a negative effect of formic acid (concentration 60%, w/v) on the colony losses could be found, irrespective of the weather conditions around the time of application. The higher concentration of 85% formic acid was linked with reduced colony losses when applications were done in August. Colony losses were reduced when Thymovar was applied in July or August, but applications in September were associated with increased losses compared with apiaries not treated with Thymovar during the same period. Apilife application in July as well as Apivar applications between July and September were associated with reduced colony losses. The removal of the drone brood and trickled oxalic acid application had beneficial effects when being done in April and December, respectively. Relatively warm (3.0±1.3°C) and wet (507.0±38.6mm/2months) conditions during the winter months December and January and relatively cool (17.2±1.4°C average monthly temperature) and wet (110.8±55.5mm/month) conditions in July were associated with elevated honey bee colony losses. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and Application of Syndromic Surveillance for Severe Weather Events Following Hurricane Sandy.

PubMed

Tsai, Stella; Hamby, Teresa; Chu, Alvin; Gleason, Jessie A; Goodrow, Gabrielle M; Gu, Hui; Lifshitz, Edward; Fagliano, Jerald A

2016-06-01

Following Hurricane Superstorm Sandy, the New Jersey Department of Health (NJDOH) developed indicators to enhance syndromic surveillance for extreme weather events in EpiCenter, an online system that collects and analyzes real-time chief complaint emergency department (ED) data and classifies each visit by indicator or syndrome. These severe weather indicators were finalized by using 2 steps: (1) key word inclusion by review of chief complaints from cases where diagnostic codes met selection criteria and (2) key word exclusion by evaluating cases with key words of interest that lacked selected diagnostic codes. Graphs compared 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year periods of 8 Hurricane Sandy-related severe weather event indicators against the same period in the following year. Spikes in overall ED visits were observed immediately after the hurricane for carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning, the 3 disrupted outpatient medical care indicators, asthma, and methadone-related substance use. Zip code level scan statistics indicated clusters of CO poisoning and increased medicine refill needs during the 2 weeks after Hurricane Sandy. CO poisoning clusters were identified in areas with power outages of 4 days or longer. This endeavor gave the NJDOH a clearer picture of the effects of Hurricane Sandy and yielded valuable state preparation information to monitor the effects of future severe weather events. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:463-471).

Regional Differences in the Growing Incidence of Dengue Fever in Vietnam Explained by Weather Variability

PubMed Central

Vu, Ha Hai; Okumura, Junko; Hashizume, Masahiro; Tran, Duong Nhu; Yamamoto, Taro

2014-01-01

Dengue fever is a major health problem in Vietnam, but its incidence differs from province to province. To understand this at the local level, we assessed the effect of four weather components (humidity, rainfall, temperature and sunshine) on the number of dengue cases in nine provinces of Vietnam. Monthly data from 1999 to 2009 were analysed by time-series regression using negative binomial models. A test for heterogeneity was applied to assess the weather-dengue association in the provinces. Those associations were significantly heterogeneous (for temperature, humidity, and sunshine: P < 0.001 heterogeneity test; for rainfall: P = 0.018 heterogeneity test). This confirms that weather components strongly affect dengue transmission at a lag time of 0 to 3 months, with considerable variation in their influence among different areas in Vietnam. This finding may promote the strategic prevention of dengue disease by suggesting specific plans at the local level, rather than a nationally unified approach. PMID:24808744

Application of a COSMO Mesoscale Model to Assess the Influence of Forest Cover Changes on Regional Weather Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olchev, A.; Rozinkina, I.; Kuzmina, E.; Nikitin, M.; Rivin, G. S.

2017-12-01

Modern changes in land use and forest cover have a significant influence on local, regional, and global weather and climate conditions. In this study, the mesoscale model COSMO is used to estimate the possible influence of forest cover change in the central part of the East European Plain on regional weather conditions. The "model region" of the study is surrounded by geographical coordinates 55° and 59°N and 28° and 37°E and situated in the central part of a large modeling domain (50° - 70° N and 15° 55° E), covering almost the entire East European Plain in Northern Eurasia. The forests cover about 50% of the area of the "model region". The modeling study includes 3 main numerical experiments. The first assumes total deforestation of the "model region" and replacement of forests by grasslands. The second is represented by afforestation of the "model region." In the third, weather conditions are simulated with present land use and vegetation structures of the "model region." Output of numerical experiments is at 13.2 km grid resolution, and the ERA-Interim global atmospheric reanalysis (with 6-h resolution in time and 0.75°×0.75° in space) is used to quantify initial and boundary conditions. Numerical experiments for the warm period of 2010 taken as an example show that deforestation and afforestation processes in the selected region can lead to significant changes in weather conditions. Deforestation processes in summer conditions can result in increased air temperature and wind speed, reduction of precipitation, lower clouds, and relative humidity. The afforestation process can result in opposite effects (decreased air temperature, increased precipitation, higher air humidity and fog frequency, and strengthened storm winds). Maximum meteorological changes under forest cover changes are projected for the summer months (July and August). It was also shown that changes of some meteorological characteristics (e.g., air temperature) is observed in the

Weather data for simplified energy calculation methods. Volume II. Middle United States: TRY data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olsen, A.R.; Moreno, S.; Deringer, J.

1984-08-01

The objective of this report is to provide a source of weather data for direct use with a number of simplified energy calculation methods available today. Complete weather data for a number of cities in the United States are provided for use in the following methods: degree hour, modified degree hour, bin, modified bin, and variable degree day. This report contains sets of weather data for 22 cities in the continental United States using Test Reference Year (TRY) source weather data. The weather data at each city has been summarized in a number of ways to provide differing levels ofmore » detail necessary for alternative simplified energy calculation methods. Weather variables summarized include dry bulb and wet bulb temperature, percent relative humidity, humidity ratio, wind speed, percent possible sunshine, percent diffuse solar radiation, total solar radiation on horizontal and vertical surfaces, and solar heat gain through standard DSA glass. Monthly and annual summaries, in some cases by time of day, are available. These summaries are produced in a series of nine computer generated tables.« less

Ionospheric research for space weather service support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanislawska, Iwona; Gulyaeva, Tamara; Dziak-Jankowska, Beata

2016-07-01

Knowledge of the behavior of the ionosphere is very important for space weather services. A wide variety of ground based and satellite existing and future systems (communications, radar, surveillance, intelligence gathering, satellite operation, etc) is affected by the ionosphere. There are the needs for reliable and efficient support for such systems against natural hazard and minimalization of the risk failure. The joint research Project on the 'Ionospheric Weather' of IZMIRAN and SRC PAS is aimed to provide on-line the ionospheric parameters characterizing the space weather in the ionosphere. It is devoted to science, techniques and to more application oriented areas of ionospheric investigation in order to support space weather services. The studies based on data mining philosophy increasing the knowledge of ionospheric physical properties, modelling capabilities and gain applications of various procedures in ionospheric monitoring and forecasting were concerned. In the framework of the joint Project the novel techniques for data analysis, the original system of the ionospheric disturbance indices and their implementation for the ionosphere and the ionospheric radio wave propagation are developed since 1997. Data of ionosonde measurements and results of their forecasting for the ionospheric observatories network, the regional maps and global ionospheric maps of total electron content from the navigational satellite system (GNSS) observations, the global maps of the F2 layer peak parameters (foF2, hmF2) and W-index of the ionospheric variability are provided at the web pages of SRC PAS and IZMIRAN. The data processing systems include analysis and forecast of geomagnetic indices ap and kp and new eta index applied for the ionosphere forecasting. For the first time in the world the new products of the W-index maps analysis are provided in Catalogues of the ionospheric storms and sub-storms and their association with the global geomagnetic Dst storms is

NASA Weather Support 2017

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carroll, Matt

2017-01-01

In the mid to late 1980's, as NASA was studying ways to improve weather forecasting capabilities to reduce excessive weather launch delays and to reduce excessive weather Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) waivers, the Challenger Accident occurred and the AC-67 Mishap occurred.[1] NASA and USAF weather personnel had advance knowledge of extremely high levels of weather hazards that ultimately caused or contributed to both of these accidents. In both cases, key knowledge of the risks posed by violations of weather LCC was not in the possession of final decision makers on the launch teams. In addition to convening the mishap boards for these two lost missions, NASA convened expert meteorological boards focusing on weather support. These meteorological boards recommended the development of a dedicated organization with the highest levels of weather expertise and influence to support all of American spaceflight. NASA immediately established the Weather Support Office (WSO) in the Office of Space Flight (OSF), and in coordination with the United Stated Air Force (USAF), initiated an overhaul of the organization and an improvement in technology used for weather support as recommended. Soon after, the USAF established a senior civilian Launch Weather Officer (LWO) position to provide meteorological support and continuity of weather expertise and knowledge over time. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was established by NASA, USAF, and the National Weather Service to support initiatives to place new tools and methods into an operational status. At the end of the Shuttle Program, after several weather office reorganizations, the WSO function had been assigned to a weather branch at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). This branch was dismantled in steps due to further reorganization, loss of key personnel, and loss of budget line authority. NASA is facing the loss of sufficient expertise and leadership required to provide current levels of weather support. The recommendation proposed

Cockpit weather information needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scanlon, Charles H.

1992-01-01

The primary objective is to develop an advanced pilot weather interface for the flight deck and to measure its utilization and effectiveness in pilot reroute decision processes, weather situation awareness, and weather monitoring. Identical graphical weather displays for the dispatcher, air traffic control (ATC), and pilot crew should also enhance the dialogue capabilities for reroute decisions. By utilizing a broadcast data link for surface observations, forecasts, radar summaries, lightning strikes, and weather alerts, onboard weather computing facilities construct graphical displays, historical weather displays, color textual displays, and other tools to assist the pilot crew. Since the weather data is continually being received and stored by the airborne system, the pilot crew has instantaneous access to the latest information. This information is color coded to distinguish degrees of category for surface observations, ceiling and visibilities, and ground radar summaries. Automatic weather monitoring and pilot crew alerting is accomplished by the airborne computing facilities. When a new weather information is received, the displays are instantaneously changed to reflect the new information. Also, when a new surface or special observation for the intended destination is received, the pilot crew is informed so that information can be studied at the pilot's discretion. The pilot crew is also immediately alerted when a severe weather notice, AIRMET or SIGMET, is received. The cockpit weather display shares a multicolor eight inch cathode ray tube and overlaid touch panel with a pilot crew data link interface. Touch sensitive buttons and areas are used for pilot selection of graphical and data link displays. Time critical ATC messages are presented in a small window that overlays other displays so that immediate pilot alerting and action can be taken. Predeparture and reroute clearances are displayed on the graphical weather system so pilot review of weather along

Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

PubMed

Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

2011-04-01

Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirsch, A. L.; Wilhelm, M.; Davin, E. L.; Thiery, W.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2017-02-01

Limiting global warming to well below 2°C is an imminent challenge for humanity. However, even if this global target can be met, some regions are still likely to experience substantial warming relative to others. Using idealized global climate simulations, we examine the potential of land management options in affecting regional climate, with a focus on crop albedo enhancement and irrigation (climate-effective land management). The implementation is performed over all crop regions globally to provide an upper bound. We find that the implementation of both crop albedo enhancement and irrigation can reduce hot temperature extremes by more than 2°C in North America, Eurasia, and India over the 21st century relative to a scenario without management application. The efficacy of crop albedo enhancement scales with the magnitude, where a cooling response exceeding 0.5°C for hot temperature extremes was achieved with a large (i.e., ≥0.08) change in crop albedo. Regional differences were attributed to the surface energy balance response with temperature changes mostly explained by latent heat flux changes for irrigation and net shortwave radiation changes for crop albedo enhancement. However, limitations do exist, where we identify warming over the winter months when climate-effective land management is temporarily suspended. This was associated with persistent cloud cover that enhances longwave warming. It cannot be confirmed if the magnitude of this feedback is reproducible in other climate models. Our results overall demonstrate that regional warming of hot extremes in our climate model can be partially mitigated when using an idealized treatment of climate-effective land management.

Employing Numerical Weather Models to Enhance Fire Weather and Fire Behavior Predictions

Treesearch

Joseph J. Charney; Lesley A. Fusina

2006-01-01

This paper presents an assessment of fire weather and fire behavior predictions produced by a numerical weather prediction model similar to those used by operational weather forecasters when preparing their forecasts. The PSU/NCAR MM5 model is used to simulate the weather conditions associated with three fire episodes in June 2005. Extreme fire behavior was reported...

Atlas of the global distribution of atmospheric heating during the global weather experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaack, Todd K.; Johnson, Donald R.

1991-01-01

Global distributions of atmospheric heating for the annual cycle of the Global Weather Experiment are estimated from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Level 3b data set. Distributions of monthly, seasonally, and annually averaged heating are presented for isentropic and isobaric layers within the troposphere and for the troposphere as a whole. The distributions depict a large-scale structure of atmospheric heating that appears spatially and temporally consistent with known features of the global circulation and the seasonal evolution.

Space Weather Influence on the Earth wheat markets: past, present, and future.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pustil'Nik, Lev

solar wind, high cosmic ray flux and North Atlantic cloudiness, caused by CR excess, with negative sequences for wheat agriculture in this humid zone. In the same time wheat markets in the South Europe (Spain, Italy) show reliable sensitivity to space weather state in the opposite (maximum) phase of solar activity with strong solar wind, low cosmic ray flux and deficit of CR input in cloudiness in North Atlantic with next deficit of precipitations in the arid zones of the South Europe. In the same time the large part of markets in the Central Europe zone, functioned far from "high risk agriculture state" show the absence of any effects-responses on space weather. This asymmetry is in accordance with model expectation in the frame of proposed approach. For extremely case of the Iceland agriculture we show that drop of agriculture production in unfavorable states of space weather leads to mass mortality from famines correlated with phase of solar activity with high confi- dence level. We discuss possible increasing of sensitivity of wheat markets to space weather effects in condition of drastic and fast change of modern climate, caused by global warming of the Earth atmosphere with fast and unexpected shift of numerous agriculture regions in the world to state of "high risk agriculture zone". Publications on the theme of review: I. "INFLUENCE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY ON THE STATE OF THE WHEAT MARKET IN MEDIEVAL ENGLAND", Solar Physics 223: 335-356, 2004. c 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers II. "SPACE CLIMATE MANIFESTATION IN EARTH PRICES - FROM MEDIEVAL ENGLAND UP TO MODERN U.S.A.", LEV PUSTIL'NIK and GREGORY YOM DIN, Solar Physics, 224: 473-481 c Springer 2005

The effects of warmed intravenous fluids, combined warming (warmed intravenous fluids with humid-warm oxygen), and pethidine on the severity of shivering in general anesthesia patients in the recovery room

PubMed Central

Nasiri, Ahmad; Akbari, Ayob; Sharifzade, GholamReza; Derakhshan, Pooya

2015-01-01

Background: Shivering is a common complication of general and epidural anesthesia. Warming methods and many drugs are used for control of shivering in the recovery room. The present study is a randomized clinical trial aimed to investigate the effects of two interventions in comparison with pethidine which is the routine treatment on shivering in patients undergoing abdominal surgery with general anesthesia. Materials and Methods: Eighty-seven patients undergoing abdominal surgery by general anesthesia were randomly assigned to three groups (two intervention groups in comparison with pethidine as routine). Patients in warmed intravenous fluids group received pre-warmed Ringer serum (38°C), patients in combined warming group received pre-warmed Ringer serum (38°C) accompanied by humid-warm oxygen, and patients in pethidine group received intravenous pethidine routinely. The elapsed time of shivering and some hemodynamic parameters of the participants were assessed for 20 min postoperatively in the recovery room. Then the collected data were analyzed by software SPSS (v. 16) with the significance level being P < 0.05. Results: The mean of elapsed time in the warmed intravenous serum group, the combined warming group, and the pethidine group were 7 (1.5) min, 6 (1.5) min, and 2.8 (0.7) min, respectively, which was statistically significant (P < 0.05). The body temperatures in both combined warming and pethidine groups were increased significantly (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Combined warming can be effective in controlling postoperative shivering and body temperature increase. PMID:26793258

Highlights of Space Weather Services/Capabilities at NASA/GSFC Space Weather Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fok, Mei-Ching; Zheng, Yihua; Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, Maria; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Mays, Leila; Chulaki, Anna; Lee, Hyesook

2012-01-01

The importance of space weather has been recognized world-wide. Our society depends increasingly on technological infrastructure, including the power grid as well as satellites used for communication and navigation. Such technologies, however, are vulnerable to space weather effects caused by the Sun's variability. NASA GSFC's Space Weather Center (SWC) (http://science.gsfc.nasa.gov//674/swx services/swx services.html) has developed space weather products/capabilities/services that not only respond to NASA's needs but also address broader interests by leveraging the latest scientific research results and state-of-the-art models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC: http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov). By combining forefront space weather science and models, employing an innovative and configurable dissemination system (iSWA.gsfc.nasa.gov), taking advantage of scientific expertise both in-house and from the broader community as well as fostering and actively participating in multilateral collaborations both nationally and internationally, NASA/GSFC space weather Center, as a sibling organization to CCMC, is poised to address NASA's space weather needs (and needs of various partners) and to help enhancing space weather forecasting capabilities collaboratively. With a large number of state-of-the-art physics-based models running in real-time covering the whole space weather domain, it offers predictive capabilities and a comprehensive view of space weather events throughout the solar system. In this paper, we will provide some highlights of our service products/capabilities. In particular, we will take the 23 January and the 27 January space weather events as examples to illustrate how we can use the iSWA system to track them in the interplanetary space and forecast their impacts.

Extreme weather and air pollution effects on cardiovascular and respiratory hospital admissions in Cyprus.

PubMed

Tsangari, H; Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, A P; Vardoulakis, S; Heaviside, C; Georgiou, K E; Yamasaki, E N

2016-01-15

In many regions of the world, climatic change is associated with increased extreme temperatures, which can have severe effects on mortality and morbidity. In this study, we examine the effect of extreme weather on hospital admissions in Cyprus, for inland and coastal areas, through the use of synoptic weather classifications (air mass types). In addition, the effect of particulate air pollution (PM10) on morbidity is examined. Our results show that two air mass types, namely (a) warm, rainy days with increased levels of water vapour in the atmosphere and (b) cold, cloudy days with increased levels of precipitation, were associated with increased morbidity in the form of hospital admissions. This was true both for cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, for all age groups, but particularly for the elderly, aged over 65. Particulate air pollution was also associated with increased morbidity in Cyprus, where the effect was more pronounced for cardiovascular diseases. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Weather Education/Outreach - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

select the go button to submit request City, St Go Sign-up for Email Alerts RSS Feeds RSS Feeds Warnings Skip Navigation Links weather.gov NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Select to go to the NWS homepage National Weather Service Site Map News

Careers in Weather - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

select the go button to submit request City, St Go Sign-up for Email Alerts RSS Feeds RSS Feeds Warnings Skip Navigation Links weather.gov NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Select to go to the NWS homepage National Weather Service Site Map News

Survey of Recipients of WAP Services Assessment of Household Budget and Energy Behaviors Pre to Post Weatherization DOE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, Bruce Edward; Rose, Erin M.; Hawkins, Beth A.

This report presents results from the national survey of weatherization recipients. This research was one component of the retrospective and Recovery Act evaluations of the U.S. Department of Energy s Weatherization Assistance Program. Survey respondents were randomly selected from a nationally representative sample of weatherization recipients. The respondents and a comparison group were surveyed just prior to receiving their energy audits and then again approximately 18 months post-weatherization. This report focuses on budget issues faced by WAP households pre- and post-weatherization, whether household energy behaviors changed from pre- to post, the effectiveness of approaches to client energy education, and usemore » and knowledge about thermostats.« less

American Weather Stories.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hughes, Patrick

Weather has shaped United States' culture, national character and folklore; at times it has changed the course of history. The seven accounts compiled in this publication highlight some of the nation's weather experiences from the hurricanes that threatened Christopher Columbus to the peculiar run of bad weather that has plagued American…

Response of Global Lightning Activity Observed by the TRMM/LIS During Warm and Cold ENSO Phases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chronis, Themis G.; Cecil, Dan; Goodman, Steven J.; Buechler, Dennis

2007-01-01

This paper investigates the response of global lightning activity to the transition from the warm (January February March-JFM 1998) to the cold (JFM 1999) ENSO phase. The nine-year global lightning climatology for these months from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) provides the observational baseline. Flash rate density is computed on a 5.0x5.0 degree lat/lon grid within the LIS coverage area (between approx.37.5 N and S) for each three month period. The flash rate density anomalies from this climatology are examined for these months in 1998 and 1999. The observed lightning anomalies spatially match the documented general circulation features that accompany the warm and cold ENSO events. During the warm ENSO phase the dominant positive lightning anomalies are located mostly over the Western Hemisphere and more specifically over Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Northern Mid-Atlantic. We further investigate specifically the Northern Mid-Atlantic related anomaly features since these show strong relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Furthermore these observed anomaly patterns show strong spatial agreement with anomalous upper level (200 mb) cold core cyclonic circulations. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies during the warm ENSO phase also affect the lightning activity, but this is mostly observed near coastal environments. Over the open tropical oceans, there is climatologically less lightning and the anomalies are less pronounced. Warm ENSO related anomalies over the Eastern Hemisphere are most prominent over the South China coast. The transition to the cold ENSO phase illustrates the detected lightning anomalies to be more pronounced over East and West Pacific. A comparison of total global lightning between warm and cold ENSO phase reveals no significant difference, although prominent regional anomalies are located over mostly oceanic environments. All three tropical "chimneys" (Maritime Continent, Central

Skill in Precipitation Forecasting in the National Weather Service.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charba, Jerome P.; Klein, William H.

1980-12-01

All known long-term records of forecasting performance for different types of precipitation forecasts in the National Weather Service were examined for relative skill and secular trends in skill. The largest upward trends were achieved by local probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts for the periods 24-36 h and 36-48 h after 0000 and 1200 GMT. Over the last 13 years, the skill of these forecasts has improved at an average rate of 7.2% per 10-year interval. Over the same period, improvement has been smaller in local PoP skill in the 12-24 h range (2.0% per 10 years) and in the accuracy of "Yea/No" forecasts of measurable precipitation. The overall trend in accuracy of centralized quantitative precipitation forecasts of 0.5 in and 1.0 in has been slightly upward at the 0-24 h range and strongly upward at the 24-48 h range. Most of the improvement in these forecasts has been achieved from the early 1970s to the present. Strong upward accuracy trends in all types of precipitation forecasts within the past eight years are attributed primarily to improvements in numerical and statistical centralized guidance forecasts.The skill and accuracy of both measurable and quantitative precipitation forecasts is 35-55% greater during the cool season than during the warm season. Also, the secular rate of improvement of the cool season precipitation forecasts is 50-110% greater than that of the warm season. This seasonal difference in performance reflects the relative difficulty of forecasting predominantly stratiform precipitation of the cool season and convective precipitation of the warm season.

Decadal Variation of the Number of El Nino Onsets and El Nino-Related Months and Estimating the Likelihood of El Nino Onset in a Warming World

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2009-01-01

Examination of the decadal variation of the number of El Nino onsets and El Nino-related months for the interval 1950-2008 clearly shows that the variation is better explained as one expressing normal fluctuation and not one related to global warming. Comparison of the recurrence periods for El Nino onsets against event durations for moderate/strong El Nino events results in a statistically important relationship that allows for the possible prediction of the onset for the next anticipated El Nino event. Because the last known El Nino was a moderate event of short duration (6 months), having onset in August 2006, unless it is a statistical outlier, one expects the next onset of El Nino probably in the latter half of 2009, with peak following in November 2009-January 2010. If true, then initial early extended forecasts of frequencies of tropical cyclones for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season probably should be revised slightly downward from near average-to-above average numbers to near average-to-below average numbers of tropical cyclones in 2009, especially as compared to averages since 1995, the beginning of the current high-activity interval for tropical cyclone activity.

NASA Space Weather Center Services: Potential for Space Weather Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Masha; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Hesse, M.

2012-01-01

The NASA Space Weather Center's primary objective is to provide the latest space weather information and forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and its partners and to bring space weather knowledge to the public. At the same time, the tools and services it possesses can be invaluable for research purposes. Here we show how our archive and real-time modeling of space weather events can aid research in a variety of ways, with different classification criteria. We will list and discuss major CME events, major geomagnetic storms, and major SEP events that occurred during the years 2010 - 2012. Highlights of major tools/resources will be provided.

Warm-adapted microbial communities enhance their carbon-use efficiency in warmed soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousk, Johannes; Frey, Serita

2017-04-01

Ecosystem models predict that climate warming will stimulate microbial decomposition of soil carbon (C), resulting in a positive feedback to increasing temperatures. The current generation of models assume that the temperature sensitivities of microbial processes do not respond to warming. However, recent studies have suggested that the ability of microbial communities to adapt to warming can lead both strengthened and weakened feedbacks. A further complication is that the balance between microbial C used for growth to that used for respiration - the microbial carbon-use efficiency (CUE) - also has been shown through both modelling and empirical study to respond to warming. In our study, we set out to assess how chronic warming (+5°C over ambient during 9 years) of a temperate hardwood forest floor (Harvard Forest LTER, USA) affected temperature sensitivities of microbial processes in soil. To do this, we first determined the temperature relationships for bacterial growth, fungal growth, and respiration in plots exposed to warmed or ambient conditions. Secondly, we parametrised the established temperature functions microbial growth and respiration with plot-specific measured soil temperature data at a hourly time-resolution over the course of 3 years to estimate the real-time variation of in situ microbial C production and respiration. To estimate the microbial CUE, we also divided the microbial C production with the sum of microbial C production and respiration as a proxy for substrate use. We found that warm-adapted bacterial and fungal communities both shifted their temperature relationships to grow at higher rates in warm conditions which coincided with reduced rates at cool conditions. As such, their optimal temperature (Topt), minimum temperature (Tmin) and temperature sensitivity (Q10) were all increased. The temperature relationship for temperature, in contrast, was only marginally shifted in the same direction, but at a much smaller effect size, with

Weathering and weathering rates of natural stone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkler, Erhard M.

1987-06-01

Physical and chemical weathering were studied as separate processes in the past. Recent research, however, shows that most processes are physicochemical in nature. The rates at which calcite and silica weather by dissolution are dependent on the regional and local climatic environment. The weathering of silicate rocks leaves discolored margins and rinds, a function of the rocks' permeability and of the climatic parameters. Salt action, the greatest disruptive factor, is complex and not yet fully understood in all its phases, but some of the causes of disruption are crystallization pressure, hydration pressure, and hygroscopic attraction of excess moisture. The decay of marble is complex, an interaction between disolution, crack-corrosion, and expansion-contraction cycies triggered by the release of residual stresses. Thin spalls of granites commonly found near the street level of buildings are generally caused by a combination of stress relief and salt action. To study and determine weathering rates of a variety of commercial stones, the National Bureau of Standards erected a Stone Exposure Test Wall in 1948. Of the many types of stone represented, only a few fossiliferous limestones permit a valid measurement of surface reduction in a polluted urban environment.

Extreme April 2016 temperatures in Mainland Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and exacerbated by global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thirumalai, K.; Di Nezio, P. N.; Okumura, Y.; Deser, C.

2016-12-01

In April 2016, Mainland Southeast Asia (MSA) experienced monthly mean surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, caused widespread discomfort, and greatly exacerbated energy consumption. First, we reveal a robust relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and April SATs in the region, demonstrating that virtually all extreme, hot Aprils occur during El Niño years. Next, we show that MSA has experienced continuous warming since the early 20th century. To quantify the relative contributions of this long-term warming trend and the 2015 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs, we use observations and a large ensemble of global warming simulations, performed with a model that realistically simulates this El-Niño-MSA link. We find robust evidence that the "post-Niño" hot Aprils are being exacerbated by global warming, with this effect being pronounced for the 2016 event, where we estimate 24% was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. Despite an increased likelihood of hot Aprils during El Niño years in the future, our findings suggest that these extremes can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance.

Fuel and weather influence wildfires in sand pine forests

Treesearch

W. A. Hough

1973-01-01

A complex combination of fuel and weather factors accounts for the dangerous fires that often develop during the spring in sand pine forests of Florida. Moisture content of live needles is lowest in March, and resin and energy contents reach their yearly highs during the 4-month period from February through May. These fuel properties become critical, however, only when...

Role of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region in the northeast Asia severe drought in summer 2014: month-to-month perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhiqing; Fan, Ke; Wang, HuiJun

2017-09-01

The severe drought over northeast Asia in summer 2014 and the contribution to it by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region were investigated from the month-to-month perspective. The severe drought was accompanied by weak lower-level summer monsoon flow and featured an obvious northward movement during summer. The mid-latitude Asian summer (MAS) pattern and East Asia/Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern, induced by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) rainfall anomalies respectively, were two main bridges between the SST anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region and the severe drought. Warming in the Arabian Sea induced reduced rainfall over northeast India and then triggered a negative MAS pattern favoring the severe drought in June 2014. In July 2014, warming in the tropical western North Pacific led to a strong WNPSM and increased rainfall over the Philippine Sea, triggering a positive EAP pattern. The equatorial eastern Pacific and local warming resulted in increased rainfall over the off-equatorial western Pacific and triggered an EAP-like pattern. The EAP pattern and EAP-like pattern contributed to the severe drought in July 2014. A negative Indian Ocean dipole induced an anomalous meridional circulation, and warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific induced an anomalous zonal circulation, in August 2014. The two anomalous cells led to a weak ISM and WNPSM, triggering the negative MAS and EAP patterns responsible for the severe drought. Two possible reasons for the northward movement of the drought were also proposed.

Aviation weather : FAA and the National Weather Service are considering plans to consolidate weather service offices, but face significant challenges.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-07-01

The National Weather Services (NWS) weather products are a vital component of the Federal Aviation Administrations (FAA) air traffic control system. In addition to providing aviation weather products developed at its own facilities, NWS also pr...

Extreme Warming Challenges Sentinel Status of Kelp Forests as Indicators of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, R. J.; Reed, D.; Washburn, L.; Rassweiler, A.; Bell, T. W.; Harrer, S.

2016-12-01

The ecological effects of global warming are expected to be large, but are proving difficult and costly to measure. This has led to a growing interest in using sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems, raising awareness of the importance of verifying that such conservation shortcuts have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale warming event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and considered sensitive to warming. Here we show that giant kelp did not presage ecosystem effects of extreme warming off southern California despite its expected vulnerability. Fluctuations in the biomass of giant kelp, understory algae, invertebrates and fish remained within historical ranges despite 34 months of above average temperatures and below average nutrients. Sea stars and sea urchins were exceptions, plummeting due to disease outbreaks linked to the warming. Our results challenge the IPCC predictions about the vulnerability of kelp-dominated systems to extreme warming events and question their use as early indicators of climate change. The resilience of giant kelp to unprecedented warming not only questions our understanding of kelp ecology, but exposes the risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.

How does whole ecosystem warming of a peatland affect methane production and consumption?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopple, A.; Brunik, K.; Keller, J.; Pfeifer-Meister, L.; Woerndle, G.; Zalman, C.; Hanson, P.; Bridgham, S. D.

2017-12-01

Peatlands are among Earth's most important terrestrial ecosystems due to their massive soil carbon (C) stores and significant release of methane (CH4) into the atmosphere. Methane has a sustained-flux global warming potential 45-times greater than carbon dioxide (CO2), and the accuracy of Earth system model projections relies on our mechanistic understanding of peatland CH4 cycling in the context of environmental change. The objective of this study was to determine, under in situ conditions, how heating of the peat profile affects ecosystem-level anaerobic C cycling. We assessed the response of CO2 and CH4 production, as well as the anaerobic oxidation of CH4 (AOM), in a boreal peatland following 13 months of deep peat heating (DPH) and 16 months of subsequent whole-ecosystem warming (surface and deep heating; WEW) as part of the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) project in northern Minnesota, USA. The study uses a regression-based experimental design including 5 temperature treatments that warmed the entire 2 m peat profile from 0 to +9 °C above ambient temperature. Soil cores were collected at multiple depths (25-200 cm) from each experimental chamber at the SPRUCE site and anaerobically incubated at in situ temperatures for 1-2 weeks. Methane and CO2 production in surface peat were positively correlated with elevated temperature, but no consistent temperature response was found at depth (75-200 cm) following DPH. However, during WEW, we observed significant increases in both surface and deep peat methanogenesis with increasing temperature. Surface peat had greater CH4 production rates than deeper peat, implying that the increased CH4 emissions observed in the field were largely driven by surface peat warming. The CO2:CH4 ratio was inversely correlated with temperature across all depths following 16 months of WEW, indicating that the entire peat profile is becoming more methanogenic with warming. We also observed AOM throughout

National Space Weather Program Releases Strategy for the New Decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Samuel P.; Babcock, Michael R.; Bonadonna, Michael F.

2010-12-01

The National Space Weather Program (NSWP; http://www.nswp.gov) is a U.S. federal government interagency program established by the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM) in 1995 to coordinate, collaborate, and leverage capabilities across stakeholder agencies, including space weather researchers, service providers, users, policy makers, and funding agencies, to improve the performance of the space weather enterprise for the United States and its international partners. Two important documents released in recent months have established a framework and the vision, goals, and strategy to move the enterprise forward in the next decade. The U.S. federal agency members of the NSWP include the departments of Commerce, Defense, Energy, Interior, State, and Transportation, plus NASA, the National Science Foundation, and observers from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The OFCM is also working with the Department of Homeland Security's Federal Emergency Management Agency to formally join the program.

Root and Shoot Phenology May Respond Differently to Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radville, L.; Eissenstat, D. M.; Post, E.

2015-12-01

Climate change is increasing temperatures and extending the growing season for many organisms. Shifts in phenology have been widely reported in response to global warming and have strong effects on ecosystem processes and greenhouse gas emissions. It is well understood that warming generally advances aboveground plant phenology, but the influence of temperature on root phenology is unclear. Most terrestrial biosphere models assume that root and shoot growth occur at the same time and are influenced by warming in the same way, but recent studies suggest that this may not be the case. Testing this assumption is particularly important in the Arctic where over 70% of plant biomass can be belowground and warming is happening faster than in other ecosystems. In 2013 and 2014 we examined the timing of root growth in the Arctic in plots that had been warmed or unwarmed for 10 years. We found that peak root growth occurred about one month before leaf growth, suggesting that spring root phenology is not controlled by carbon produced during spring photosynthesis. If root phenology is not controlled by photosynthate early in the season, earlier spring leaf growth may not cause earlier spring root growth. In support of this, we found that warming advanced spring leaf cover but did not significantly affect root phenology. Root growth was not significantly correlated with soil temperature and did not appear to be limited by near-freezing temperatures above the permafrost. These results suggest that although shoots are influenced by temperature, roots in this system may be more influenced by photosynthesis and carbon storage. Aboveground phenology, one of the most widely measured aspects of climate change, may not represent whole-plant phenology and may be a poor indicator of the timing of whole-plant carbon fluxes. Additionally, climate model assumptions that roots and shoots grow at the same time may need to be revised.

Surface Landing Site Weather Analysis for Constellation Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Altino, Karen M.; Burns, K. Lee

2008-01-01

Weather information is an important asset for NASA's Constellation Program in developing the next generation space transportation system to fly to the International Space Station, the Moon and, eventually, to Mars. Weather conditions can affect vehicle safety and performance during multiple mission phases ranging from pre-launch ground processing to landing and recovery operations, including all potential abort scenarios. Meteorological analysis is an important contributor, not only to the development and verification of system design requirements but also to mission planning and active ground operations. Of particular interest are the surface atmospheric conditions at both nominal and abort landing sites for the manned Orion capsule. Weather parameters such as wind, rain, and fog all play critical roles in the safe landing of the vehicle and subsequent crew and vehicle recovery. The Marshall Space Flight Center Natural Environments Branch has been tasked by the Constellation Program with defining the natural environments at potential landing zones. Climatological time series of operational surface weather observations are used to calculate probabilities of occurrence of various sets of hypothetical vehicle constraint thresholds, Data are available for numerous geographical locations such that statistical analysis can be performed for single sites as well as multiple-site network configurations. Results provide statistical descriptions of how often certain weather conditions are observed at the site(s) and the percentage that specified criteria thresholds are matched or exceeded. Outputs are tabulated by month and hour of day to show both seasonal and diurnal variation. This paper will describe the methodology used for data collection and quality control, detail the types of analyses performed, and provide a sample of the results that can be obtained,

Generating daily weather data for ecosystem modelling in the Congo River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petritsch, Richard; Pietsch, Stephan A.

2010-05-01

Daily weather data are an important constraint for diverse applications in ecosystem research. In particular, temperature and precipitation are the main drivers for forest ecosystem productivity. Mechanistic modelling theory heavily relies on daily values for minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, incident solar radiation and vapour pressure deficit. Although the number of climate measurement stations increased during the last centuries, there are still regions with limited climate data. For example, in the WMO database there are only 16 stations located in Gabon with daily weather measurements. Additionally, the available time series are heavily affected by measurement errors or missing values. In the WMO record for Gabon, on average every second day is missing. Monthly means are more robust and may be estimated over larger areas. Therefore, a good alternative is to interpolate monthly mean values using a sparse network of measurement stations, and based on these monthly data generate daily weather data with defined characteristics. The weather generator MarkSim was developed to produce climatological time series for crop modelling in the tropics. It provides daily values for maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and solar radiation. The monthly means can either be derived from the internal climate surfaces or prescribed as additional inputs. We compared the generated outputs observations from three climate stations in Gabon (Lastourville, Moanda and Mouilla) and found that maximum temperature and solar radiation were heavily overestimated during the long dry season. This is due to the internal dependency of the solar radiation estimates to precipitation. With no precipitation a cloudless sky is assumed and thus high incident solar radiation and a large diurnal temperature range. However, in reality it is cloudy in the Congo River Basin during the long dry season. Therefore, we applied a correction factor to solar radiation and temperature range

Characterization of Ice and Snow In-Situ Properties During the Main Weather Regimes Observed in The Olympic Mountain Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borque, P.; Finlon, J.; Nesbitt, S. W.; McFarquhar, G. M.

2017-12-01

Observations from the Olympic Mountain Experiment (OLYMPEX) present a unique opportunity to analyze a vast catalogue of in-situ microphysical information over a variety of mid-latitude precipitation types. Data collected by the Citation Research Aircraft was processed using the University of Illinois/Oklahoma Optical Array Probe Processing Software to give not only bulk cloud properties (e.g., total number concentration, ice water content (IWC), and parameters describing gamma fits to observed size distributions) but also particle-by-particle properties (e.g., aspect ratio, perimeter, and projected area). In this work, we analyzed these properties in association with the different processes (e.g., aggregation, riming and accretion) occurring under the three main weather sectors (warm, prefrontal, and postfrontal) present over the OLYMPEX region. Bulk and particle properties present statistically different characteristics over the different sectors of the weather system analyzed. For example, the IWC over the warm sector presents a bimodal distribution with the primary maximum present at 0.055 g m-3 and a secondary maximum at 0.235 g m-3; whereas over the postfrontal sector the IWC has a unique maximum at 0.005 g m-3. The higher frequency of occurrence of mass-weighted mean crystal diameter (Dm) occurs at 1.57mm for the warm sector and 0.125mm for the postfrontal sector. In summary, the warm sector is characterized by large IWC, large Dm, shape parameter of the gamma distribution (μ) close to zero, and lighter particles (following a simple mass-diameter relation), all consistent with aggregation being the dominant process. In contrast, observations from the postfrontal sector show smaller IWCs, smaller Dm, negative μ, and heavier particles, all consistent with rimed particles dominating the region. Evidence for this was also seen with particle images from the in-situ probes showing large aggregates present in the warm sector and rimed particles in the postfrontal

Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2012-08-15

We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 daysmore » of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.« less

Surface Temperature Variation Prediction Model Using Real-Time Weather Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi, M.; Vant-Hull, B.; Nazari, R.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2015-12-01

Combination of climate change and urbanization are heating up cities and putting the lives of millions of people in danger. More than half of the world's total population resides in cities and urban centers. Cities are experiencing urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Hotter days are associated with serious health impacts, heart attaches and respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Densely populated cities like Manhattan, New York can be affected by UHI impact much more than less populated cities. Even though many studies have been focused on the impact of UHI and temperature changes between urban and rural air temperature, not many look at the temperature variations within a city. These studies mostly use remote sensing data or typical measurements collected by local meteorological station networks. Local meteorological measurements only have local coverage and cannot be used to study the impact of UHI in a city and remote sensing data such as MODIS, LANDSAT and ASTER have with very low resolution which cannot be used for the purpose of this study. Therefore, predicting surface temperature in urban cities using weather data can be useful.Three months of Field campaign in Manhattan were used to measure spatial and temporal temperature variations within an urban setting by placing 10 fixed sensors deployed to measure temperature, relative humidity and sunlight. Fixed instrument shelters containing relative humidity, temperature and illumination sensors were mounted on lampposts in ten different locations in Manhattan (Vant-Hull et al, 2014). The shelters were fixed 3-4 meters above the ground for the period of three months from June 23 to September 20th of 2013 making measurements with the interval of 3 minutes. These high resolution temperature measurements and three months of weather data were used to predict temperature variability from weather forecasts. This study shows that the amplitude of spatial and temporal variation in temperature for each day can be predicted

Socio-Economic Impacts of Space Weather and User Needs for Space Weather Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worman, S. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Onsager, T. G.; Adkins, J. E.; Baker, D. N.; Forbes, K. F.

2017-12-01

The 2015 National Space Weather Strategy and Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) details the activities, outcomes, and timelines to build a "Space Weather Ready Nation." NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and Abt Associates are working together on two SWAP initiatives: (1) identifying, describing, and quantifying the socio-economic impacts of moderate and severe space weather; and (2) outreach to engineers and operators to better understand user requirements for space weather products and services. Both studies cover four technological sectors (electric power, commercial aviation, satellites, and GNSS users) and rely heavily on industry input. Findings from both studies are essential for decreasing vulnerabilities and enhancing preparedness.

Weathering of wood

Treesearch

R. Sam Williams

2005-01-01

Weathering is the general term used to define the slow degradation of materials exposed to the weather. The degradation mechanism depends on the type of material, but the cause is a combination of factors found in nature: moisture, sunlight, heat/cold, chemicals, abrasion by windblown materials, and biological agents. Tall mountains weather by the complex and...

Numerical Study of the Role of Microphysical Latent Heating and Surface Heat Fluxes in a Severe Precipitation Event in the Warm Sector over Southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jin-Fang; Wang, Dong-Hai; Liang, Zhao-Ming; Liu, Chong-Jian; Zhai, Guo-Qing; Wang, Hong

2018-02-01

Simulations of the severe precipitation event that occurred in the warm sector over southern China on 08 May 2014 are conducted using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARWv3.5.1) model to investigate the roles of microphysical latent heating and surface heat fluxes during the severe precipitation processes. At first, observations from surface rain gauges and ground-based weather radars are used to evaluate the model outputs. Results show that the spatial distribution of 24-h accumulated precipitation is well reproduced, and the temporal and spatial distributions of the simulated radar reflectivity agree well with the observations. Then, several sensitive simulations are performed with the identical model configurations, except for different options in microphysical latent heating and surface heat fluxes. From the results, one of the significant findings is that the latent heating from warm rain microphysical processes heats the atmosphere in the initial phase of the precipitation and thus convective systems start by self-triggering and self-organizing, despite the fact that the environmental conditions are not favorable to the occurrence of precipitation event at the initial phase. In the case of the severe precipitation event over the warm sector, both warm and ice microphysical processes are active with the ice microphysics processes activated almost two hours later. According to the sensitive results, there is a very weak precipitation without heavy rainfall belt when microphysical latent heating is turned off. In terms of this precipitation event, the warm microphysics processes play significant roles on precipitation intensity, while the ice microphysics processes have effects on the spatial distribution of precipitation. Both surface sensible and latent heating have effects on the precipitation intensity and spatial distribution. By comparison, the surface sensible heating has a strong influence on the spatial distribution of precipitation

Impact of Stratospheric Sudden Warming on East Asian Winter Monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Quanliang

2017-04-01

Quanliang Chen, Luyang Xu, and Hongke Cai College of Atmospheric Science, Chengdu University of Information Technology and Plateau Atmospheric and Environment Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610225, China Fifty-two stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events that occurred from 1957 to 2002 were analysed based on the 40-year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis dataset. Those that could descent to the troposphere were composited to investigate their impacts on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). It reveals that when the SSW occurs, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) are both in the negative phase and that the tropospheric circulations quite wave-like. The Siberian high and the Aleutian low are both strengthened, leading to an increased gradient between the Asian continent and the North Pacific. Hence, strong EAWM is observed with widespread cooling over in land and coastal East Asia. After the peak of the SSW, in contrast, the tropospheric circulation is quite zonally symmetric with negative phases of AO and NPO. The mid-tropospheric East Asian trough deepens and shifts eastward. This configuration facilitates warming over the East AsianinlandandcoolingoverthecoastalEastAsiacenteredoverJapan.Theactivitiesofplanetarywavesduringthelifecycleofthe SSW were analysed. The anomalous propagation and the attendant altered amplitude of the planetary waves can well explain the observed circulation and the EAWM.

Space Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hapgood, Mike

2017-01-01

Space weather-changes in the Earth's environment that can often be traced to physical processes in the Sun-can have a profound impact on critical Earth-based infrastructures such as power grids and civil aviation. Violent eruptions on the solar surface can eject huge clouds of magnetized plasma and particle radiation, which then propagate across interplanetary space and envelop the Earth. These space weather events can drive major changes in a variety of terrestrial environments, which can disrupt, or even damage, many of the technological systems that underpin modern societies. The aim of this book is to offer an insight into our current scientific understanding of space weather, and how we can use that knowledge to mitigate the risks it poses for Earth-based technologies. It also identifies some key challenges for future space-weather research, and considers how emerging technological developments may introduce new risks that will drive continuing investigation.

Weather in Your Life.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kannegieter, Sandy; Wirkler, Linda

Facts and activities related to weather and meteorology are presented in this unit. Separate sections cover the following topics: (1) the water cycle; (2) clouds; (3) the Beaufort Scale for rating the speed and force of wind; (4) the barometer; (5) weather prediction; (6) fall weather in Iowa (sleet, frost, and fog); (7) winter weather in Iowa…

Effect of global warming on willingness to pay for uninterrupted electricity supply in European nations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Jed; Moeltner, Klaus; Reichl, Johannes; Schmidthaler, Michael

2018-01-01

Predicted changes in temperature and other weather events may damage the electricity grid and cause power outages. Understanding the costs of power outages and how these costs change over time with global warming can inform outage-mitigation-investment decisions. Here we show that across 19 EU nations the value of uninterrupted electricity supply is strongly related to local temperatures, and will increase as the climate warms. Bayesian hierarchical modelling of data from a choice experiment and respondent-specific temperature measures reveals estimates of willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid an hour of power outage between €0.32 and €1.86 per household. WTP varies on the basis of season and is heterogeneous between European nations. Winter outages currently cause larger per household welfare losses than summer outages per hour of outage. However, this dynamic will begin to shift under plausible future climates, with summer outages becoming substantially more costly and winter outages becoming slightly less costly on a per-household, per-hour basis.

Warm up I: potential mechanisms and the effects of passive warm up on exercise performance.

PubMed

Bishop, David

2003-01-01

Despite limited scientific evidence supporting their effectiveness, warm-up routines prior to exercise are a well-accepted practice. The majority of the effects of warm up have been attributed to temperature-related mechanisms (e.g. decreased stiffness, increased nerve-conduction rate, altered force-velocity relationship, increased anaerobic energy provision and increased thermoregulatory strain), although non-temperature-related mechanisms have also been proposed (e.g. effects of acidaemia, elevation of baseline oxygen consumption (.VO(2)) and increased postactivation potentiation). It has also been hypothesised that warm up may have a number of psychological effects (e.g. increased preparedness). Warm-up techniques can be broadly classified into two major categories: passive warm up or active warm up. Passive warm up involves raising muscle or core temperature by some external means, while active warm up utilises exercise. Passive heating allows one to obtain the increase in muscle or core temperature achieved by active warm up without depleting energy substrates. Passive warm up, although not practical for most athletes, also allows one to test the hypothesis that many of the performance changes associated with active warm up can be largely attributed to temperature-related mechanisms.

Prospects for Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Subseasonal (2-Week to 2-Month) Times Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Dole, Randall; vandenDool, Huug; Suarez, Max; Waliser, Duane

2002-01-01

This workshop, held in April 2002, brought together various Earth Sciences experts to focus on the subseasonal prediction problem. While substantial advances have occurred over the last few decades in both weather and seasonal prediction, progress in improving predictions on these intermediate time scales (time scales ranging from about two weeks to two months) has been slow. The goals of the workshop were to get an assessment of the "state of the art" in predictive skill on these time scales, to determine the potential sources of "untapped" predictive skill, and to make recommendations for a course of action that will accelerate progress in this area. One of the key conclusions of the workshop was that there is compelling evidence for predictability at forecast lead times substantially longer than two weeks. Tropical diabatic heating and soil wetness were singled out as particularly important processes affecting predictability on these time scales. Predictability was also linked to various low-frequency atmospheric "phenomena" such as the annular modes in high latitudes (including their connections to the stratosphere), the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern, and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The latter, in particular, was highlighted as a key source of untapped predictability in the tropics and subtropics, including the Asian and Australian monsoon regions.

Topographic imprint on chemical weathering in deeply weathered soil-mantled landscapes (southern Brazil)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanacker, Veerle; Schoonejans, Jerome; Ameijeiras-Marino, Yolanda; Opfergelt, Sophie; Minella, Jean

2017-04-01

The regolith mantle is defined as the thin layer of unconsolidated material overlaying bedrock that contributes to shape the Earth's surface. The development of the regolith mantle in a landscape is the result of in-situ weathering, atmospheric input and downhill transport of weathering products. Bedrock weathering - the physical and chemical transformations of rock to soil - contributes to the vertical development of the regolith layer through downward propagation of the weathering front. Lateral transport of soil particles, aggregates and solutes by diffusive and concentrated particle and solute fluxes result in lateral redistribution of weathering products over the hillslope. In this study, we aim to expand the empirical basis on long-term soil evolution at the landscape scale through a detailed study of soil weathering in subtropical soils. Spatial variability in chemical mass fluxes and weathering intensity were studied along two toposequences with similar climate, lithology and vegetation but different slope morphology. This allowed us to isolate the topographic imprint on chemical weathering and soil development. The toposequences have convexo-concave slope morphology, and eight regolith profiles were analysed involving the flat upslope, steep midslope and flat toeslope part. Our data show a clear topographic imprint on soil development. Along hillslope, the chemical weathering intensity of the regolith profiles increases with distance from the crest. In contrast to the upslope positions, the soils in the basal concavities develop on in-situ and transported regolith. While the chemical weathering extent on the slope convexities (the upslope profiles) is similar for the steep and gentle toposequence, there is a clear difference in the rate of increase of the chemical weathering extent with distance from the crest. The increase of chemical weathering extent along hillslope is highest for the steep toposequence, suggesting that topography enhances soil particle

Diurnal warming in shallow coastal seas: Observations from the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.; Minnett, P. J.; Berkelmans, R.; Hendee, J.; Manfrino, C.

2014-07-01

A good understanding of diurnal warming in the upper ocean is important for the validation of satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) against in-situ buoy data and for merging satellite SSTs taken at different times of the same day. For shallow coastal regions, better understanding of diurnal heating could also help improve monitoring and prediction of ecosystem health, such as coral reef bleaching. Compared to its open ocean counterpart which has been studied extensively and modeled with good success, coastal diurnal warming has complicating localized characteristics, including coastline geometry, bathymetry, water types, tidal and wave mixing. Our goal is to characterize coastal diurnal warming using two extensive in-situ temperature and weather datasets from the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Results showed clear daily warming patterns in most stations from both datasets. For the three Caribbean stations where solar radiation is the main cause of daily warming, the mean diurnal warming amplitudes were about 0.4 K at depths of 4-7 m and 0.6-0.7 K at shallower depths of 1-2 m; the largest warming value was 2.1 K. For coral top temperatures of the GBR, 20% of days had warming amplitudes >1 K, with the largest >4 K. The bottom warming at shallower sites has higher daily maximum temperatures and lower daily minimum temperatures than deeper sites nearby. The averaged daily warming amplitudes were shown to be closely related to daily average wind speed and maximum insolation, as found in the open ocean. Diurnal heating also depends on local features including water depth, location on different sections of the reef (reef flat vs. reef slope), the relative distance from the barrier reef chain (coast vs. lagoon stations vs. inner barrier reef sites vs. outer rim sites); and the proximity to the tidal inlets. In addition, the influence of tides on daily temperature changes and its relative importance compared to solar radiation was quantified by

The Influence of Weather Conditions on Joint Pain in Older People with Osteoarthritis: Results from the European Project on OSteoArthritis.

PubMed

Timmermans, Erik J; Schaap, Laura A; Herbolsheimer, Florian; Dennison, Elaine M; Maggi, Stefania; Pedersen, Nancy L; Castell, Maria Victoria; Denkinger, Michael D; Edwards, Mark H; Limongi, Federica; Sánchez-Martínez, Mercedes; Siviero, Paola; Queipo, Rocio; Peter, Richard; van der Pas, Suzan; Deeg, Dorly J H

2015-10-01

This study examined whether daily weather conditions, 3-day average weather conditions, and changes in weather conditions influence joint pain in older people with osteoarthritis (OA) in 6 European countries. Data from the population-based European Project on OSteoArthritis were used. The American College of Rheumatology classification criteria were used to diagnose OA in older people (65-85 yrs). After the baseline interview, at 6 months, and after the 12-18 months followup interview, joint pain was assessed using 2-week pain calendars. Daily values for temperature, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, and wind speed were obtained from local weather stations. Multilevel regression modelling was used to examine the pain-weather associations, adjusted for several confounders. The study included 810 participants with OA in the knee, hand, and/or hip. After adjustment, there were significant associations of joint pain with daily average humidity (B = 0.004, p < 0.01) and 3-day average humidity (B = 0.004, p = 0.01). A significant interaction effect was found between daily average humidity and temperature on joint pain. The effect of humidity on pain was stronger in relatively cold weather conditions. Changes in weather variables between 2 consecutive days were not significantly associated with reported joint pain. The associations between pain and daily average weather conditions suggest that a causal relationship exist between joint pain and weather variables, but the associations between day-to-day weather changes and pain do not confirm causation. Knowledge about the relationship between joint pain in OA and weather may help individuals with OA, physicians, and therapists to better understand and manage fluctuations in pain.

Warming shifts 'worming': effects of experimental warming on invasive earthworms in northern North America.

PubMed

Eisenhauer, Nico; Stefanski, Artur; Fisichelli, Nicholas A; Rice, Karen; Rich, Roy; Reich, Peter B

2014-11-03

Climate change causes species range shifts and potentially alters biological invasions. The invasion of European earthworm species across northern North America has severe impacts on native ecosystems. Given the long and cold winters in that region that to date supposedly have slowed earthworm invasion, future warming is hypothesized to accelerate earthworm invasions into yet non-invaded regions. Alternatively, warming-induced reductions in soil water content (SWC) can also decrease earthworm performance. We tested these hypotheses in a field warming experiment at two sites in Minnesota, USA by sampling earthworms in closed and open canopy in three temperature treatments in 2010 and 2012. Structural equation modeling revealed that detrimental warming effects on earthworm densities and biomass could indeed be partly explained by warming-induced reductions in SWC. The direction of warming effects depended on the current average SWC: warming had neutral to positive effects at high SWC, whereas the opposite was true at low SWC. Our results suggest that warming limits the invasion of earthworms in northern North America by causing less favorable soil abiotic conditions, unless warming is accompanied by increased and temporally even distributions of rainfall sufficient to offset greater water losses from higher evapotranspiration.

Thermal stress weathering and the spalling of Antarctic rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamp, J. L.; Marchant, D. R.; Mackay, S. L.; Head, J. W.

2017-01-01

Using in situ field measurements, laboratory analyses, and numerical modeling, we test the potential efficacy of thermal stress weathering in the flaking of millimeter-thick alteration rinds observed on cobbles and boulders of Ferrar Dolerite on Mullins Glacier, McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV). In particular, we examine whether low-magnitude stresses, arising from temperature variations over time, result in thermal fatigue weathering, yielding slow crack propagation along existing cracks and ultimate flake detachment. Our field results show that during summer months clasts of Ferrar Dolerite experience large-temperature gradients across partially detached alteration rinds (>4.7°C mm-1) and abrupt fluctuations in surface temperature (up to 12°C min-1); the latter are likely due to the combined effects of changing solar irradiation and cooling from episodic winds. The results of our thermal stress model, coupled with subcritical crack growth theory, suggest that thermal stresses induced at the base of thin alteration rinds 2 mm thick, common on rocks exposed for 105 years, may be sufficient to cause existing cracks to propagate under present-day meteorological forcing, eventually leading to rind detachment. The increase in porosity observed within alteration rinds relative to unaltered rock interiors, as well as predicted decreases in rind strength based on allied weathering studies, likely facilitates thermal stress crack propagation through a reduction of fracture toughness. We conclude that thermal stress weathering may be an active, though undervalued, weathering process in hyperarid, terrestrial polar deserts such as the stable upland region of the MDV.

Infrared heater system for warming tropical forest understory plants and soils.

PubMed

Kimball, Bruce A; Alonso-Rodríguez, Aura M; Cavaleri, Molly A; Reed, Sasha C; González, Grizelle; Wood, Tana E

2018-02-01

The response of tropical forests to global warming is one of the largest uncertainties in predicting the future carbon balance of Earth. To determine the likely effects of elevated temperatures on tropical forest understory plants and soils, as well as other ecosystems, an infrared (IR) heater system was developed to provide in situ warming for the Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. Three replicate heated 4-m-diameter plots were warmed to maintain a 4°C increase in understory vegetation compared to three unheated control plots, as sensed by IR thermometers. The equipment was larger than any used previously and was subjected to challenges different from those of many temperate ecosystem warming systems, including frequent power surges and outages, high humidity, heavy rains, hurricanes, saturated clayey soils, and steep slopes. The system was able to maintain the target 4.0°C increase in hourly average vegetation temperatures to within ± 0.1°C. The vegetation was heterogeneous and on a 21° slope, which decreased uniformity of the warming treatment on the plots; yet, the green leaves were fairly uniformly warmed, and there was little difference among 0-10 cm depth soil temperatures at the plot centers, edges, and midway between. Soil temperatures at the 40-50 cm depth increased about 3°C compared to the controls after a month of warming. As expected, the soil in the heated plots dried faster than that of the control plots, but the average soil moisture remained adequate for the plants. The TRACE heating system produced an adequately uniform warming precisely controlled down to at least 50-cm soil depth, thereby creating a treatment that allows for assessing mechanistic responses of tropical plants and soil to warming, with applicability to other ecosystems. No physical obstacles to scaling the approach to taller vegetation (i.e., trees) and larger plots were observed.

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events

PubMed Central

Mann, Michael E.; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A.; Miller, Sonya K.; Coumou, Dim

2017-01-01

Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art (“CMIP5”) historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability. PMID:28345645

El Niño and its impact on fire weather conditions in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Jason C.; Scott, Carven A.; Hufford, Gary L.; Fleming, Michael D.

2001-01-01

Examining the relationship of El Niño to weather patterns in Alaska shows wide climate variances that depend on the teleconnection between the tropics and the northern latitudes. However, the weather patterns exhibited in Alaska during and just after moderate to strong El Niño episodes are generally consistent: above normal temperature and precipitation along the Alaskan coast, and above normal temperature and below normal precipitation in the interior, especially through the winter. The warm, dry conditions in the Alaskan interior increase summer wildfire potential. Statistics on the area burned since 1940 show that 15 out of 17 of the biggest fire years occurred during a moderate to strong El Niño episode. These 15 years account for nearly 63% of the total area burned over the last 58 years. Evidence points to increased dry thunderstorms and associated lightning activity during an El Niño episode; the percentage of total area burned by lightning caused fires during five episodes increased from a normal of less than 40% to a high of about 96%.

Species-specific photosynthetic responses of four coniferous seedlings to open-field experimental warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, S.; Yoon, S. J.; Yoon, T. K.; Han, S. H.; Lee, J.; Lee, D.; Kim, S.; Hwang, J.; Cho, M.; Son, Y.

2014-12-01

Temperature increase under climate change is expected to affect photosynthesis of tree species. Biochemical models generally suggest that the elevated temperature increases the photosynthetic carbon fixation, however, many opposing results were reported as well. We aimed to examine the photosynthetic responses of four coniferous seedlings to projected future temperature increase, by conducting an open-field warming experiment. Experimental warming set-up using infra-red heater was built in 2011 and the temperature in warming plots has been regulated to be consistently 3oC higher than that of control plots. The seeds of Abies holophylla (AH), A. koreana (AK), Pinus densiflora (PD), and P. koraiensis (PK) were planted in each 1 m × 1 m plot (n=3) in April, 2012. Monthly net photosynthetic rates (Pn; μmol CO2 m-2 s-1) of 1-year-old seedlings (n=9) from June to November, 2013 were measured using CIRAS-2 (PP-Systems, UK) and photosynthetic parameters (the apparent quantum yield; ф; µmol CO2 mol-1, the dark respiration rate; Rd; µmol CO2 mol-1, and the light compensation point; LCP; µmol mol-1 s-1) were also calculated from the light-response curve of photosynthesis in August, 2013. Chlorophyll contents were measured using DMSO extraction method. Monthly Pn was generally higher for PD and decreased for AK in warmed plots than in control plots (Fig. 1). Pn of AK and PK did not show any significant difference, however, Pn of PK in October and November increased by experimental warming. Pn of PD also showed the highest increase in November and this distinct increase of Pn in autumn might be caused by delayed cessation of photosynthesis by temperature elevation. ф and Rd in warmed plots were higher for PD and lower for AK, while LCP did not significantly differ by treatments for all species. Because ф is considered to be related to the efficiency of harvesting and using light, the change in ф might have caused the response of Pn to warming in this study. Decreases

Acute Low Back Pain? Do Not Blame the Weather-A Case-Crossover Study.

PubMed

Beilken, Keira; Hancock, Mark J; Maher, Chris G; Li, Qiang; Steffens, Daniel

2017-06-01

To investigate the influence of various weather parameters on the risk of developing a low back pain (LBP) episode. Case-crossover study. Primary care clinics in Sydney, Australia. 981 participants with a new episode of acute LBP. Weather parameters were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were derived comparing two exposure variables in the case window-(1) the average of the weather variable for the day prior to pain onset and (2) the change in the weather variable from 2 days prior to 1 day prior to pain onset-with exposures in two control windows (1 week and 1 month before the case window). The weather parameters of precipitation, humidity, wind speed, wind gust, wind direction, and air pressure were not associated with the onset of acute LBP. For one of the four analyses, higher temperature slightly increased the odds of pain onset. Common weather parameters that had been previously linked to musculoskeletal pain, such as precipitation, humidity, wind speed, wind gust, wind direction, and air pressure, do not increase the risk of onset for LBP. © 2016 American Academy of Pain Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Revised Uniform Summary of Surface Weather Observations (RUSSWO) Monterey FAA, Monterey, California

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-07-24

OF WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM HOUPLY OBSERVATIONS ( RAIN____ I____ _____$NW__FMOEm_%o ls TOA m T"uNDER., o SOWNG I OST JW% OUTS NO. OFMWSTR AND 0 ERAIN...AIR ZXTHED SE VICE/HAC WEATHER CONDITIONS M -ZNT--PY FAA CA 73-7; A STATION STATION NAME MONTH PERCENTAGE FREQUEN4CY OF OCCURRENCE OF iWEATHEP...CONDITIONS FRCM HOURLY OBSERVATIONS . M RO-UTH: I A,-,OB £l1. ., . OW4G ANO’ wi, NSt 0 R SAIN/O FRUZIN SH W %OFf SM OUST I %O OfICS TOTAL _ _LS T. STOMSI,, SNOW

Aviation weather services

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sprinkle, C. H.

1983-01-01

The primary responsibilities of the National Weather Service (NWS) are to: provide warnings of severe weather and flooding for the protection of life and property; provide public forecasts for land and adjacent ocean areas for planning and operation; and provide weather support for: production of food and fiber; management of water resources; production, distribution and use of energy; and efficient and safe air operations.

An evaluation of WRF microphysics schemes for simulating the warm-type heavy rain over the Korean peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Hwan-Jin; Sohn, Byung-Ju

2018-01-01

The Korean peninsula is the region of distinctly showing the heavy rain associated with relatively low storm height and small ice water content in the upper part of cloud system (i.e., so-called warm-type heavy rainfall). The satellite observations for the warmtype rain over Korea led to a conjecture that the cloud microphysics parameterization suitable for the continental deep convection may not work well for the warm-type heavy rainfall over the Korean peninsula. Therefore, there is a growing need to examine the performance of cloud microphysics schemes for simulating the warm-type heavy rain structures over the Korean peninsula. This study aims to evaluate the capabilities of eight microphysics schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model how warmtype heavy rain structures can be simulated, in reference to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) reflectivity measurements. The results indicate that the WRF Double Moment 6-class (WDM6) scheme simulated best the vertical structure of warm-type heavy rain by virtue of a reasonable collisioncoalescence process between liquid droplets and the smallest amount of snow. Nonetheless the WDM6 scheme appears to have limitations that need to be improved upon for a realistic reflectivity structure, in terms of the reflectivity slope below the melting layer, discontinuity in reflectivity profiles around the melting layer, and overestimation of upper-level reflectivity due to high graupel content.

SPRUCE Deep Peat Heating (DPH) to Whole Ecosystem Warming (WEW) Metagenomes for Peat Samples Collected June 2016

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kluber, Laurel A; Yip, Daniel Z; Yang, Zamin K

This data set provides links to the results of metagenomic analyses of 44 peat samples collected on 13 June 2016 from SPRUCE experiment treatment and ambient plots. Experimental plots had received approximately 24 months of belowground warming (deep peat heating (DPH), Hanson et al. 2015) with the last 9 of those months including air warming for implementation of whole ecosystems warming (WEW – Hanson et al. 2016). WEW Metagenomes: Data from these metagenomes are archived in the U.S. Department of Energy Joint Genome Institute (DOE JGI) Integrated Microbial Genomes (IMG) system (http://img.jgi.doe.gov/) and are available at the accession numbers providedmore » below (Table 2) and in the accompanying inventory file. The easiest way to find results on IMG is at this link, https://img.jgi.doe.gov/cgi-bin/m/main.cgi, and then enter “June2016WEW” as a search term in the “Quick Genome Search:” box at the top of the page.« less

Overwintering in the Bamboo Mosquito Tripteroides bambusa (Diptera: Culicidae) During a Warm, But Unpredictably Changing, Winter.

PubMed

Chaves, Luis Fernando; Jian, Jiun-Yu; Moji, Kazuhiko

2018-02-08

The bamboo mosquito, Tripteroides bambusa (Yamada) (Diptera: Culicidae), is a common insect across forested landscapes in Japan. Several studies have reported its overwintering as larvae and eggs, in both natural and artificial water containers. Nevertheless, it is unclear how sensitive this mosquito species is to changes in weather patterns associated with global warming. The El Niño event of 2015 through 2016 was one of the strongest on record and provided an ideal scenario for observations on the overwintering of the bamboo mosquito during a winter predicted to be unusually warm. Thus, we set oviposition traps in mid October 2015 and made weekly observations, from December 2015 to May 2016, on bamboo mosquito larval recruitment and pupation in Nagasaki, Japan. We found that larvae were pupating as late as the first week of January (prior records from the study site indicated mosquito pupation ended by mid-late October) and that pupation resumed in mid April (one month earlier than previous records at the study site). We also found that fourth instar larvae were able to survive in frozen oviposition traps following an extremely unusual snowstorm and cold spell and that recruitment of larvae from eggs happened after this unusual event. Our analysis suggested that overwintering and metamorphosis of the bamboo mosquito is sensitive to average and extreme temperatures, the latter measured by temperature kurtosis. Our results highlight the need to better understand changes in overwintering strategies in insects, and associated trade-offs and impacts on population dynamics, in light of climate change. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Weather Instruments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brantley, L. Reed, Sr.; Demanche, Edna L.; Klemm, E. Barbara; Kyselka, Will; Phillips, Edwin A.; Pottenger, Francis M.; Yamamoto, Karen N.; Young, Donald B.

This booklet presents some activities to measure various weather phenomena. Directions for constructing a weather station are included. Instruments including rain gauges, thermometers, wind vanes, wind speed devices, humidity devices, barometers, atmospheric observations, a dustfall jar, sticky-tape can, detection of gases in the air, and pH of…