Sample records for warmer climate growth

  1. Is a warmer climate wilting the forests of the north?

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Taubes, G.

    1995-03-17

    The far-northern climate has warmed 2 degrees Celsium since the 1880s, much more than the rest of the world. A warmer climate might be expected to speed tree growth and drive the northern edge of the forest farther into the Arctic. However a 4 year study of growth rings in trees growing near the timberline in northern and central Alaska indicated differently. Two researchers, Jacoby and D`Arrigo of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, report that as the high latitudes warmed over the past 100 years, tree growth accelerated at first, but recently the growth rate has flattened while the climate continues tomore » warm. This article discusses how the research was done and the possible implications and explanations, including the possibility that warmer temperatures may encourage outbreaks of insect pests.« less

  2. Increased ocean heat transports and warmer climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rind, D.; Chandler, M.

    1991-01-01

    The impact of an increased ocean heat transport on climate is investigated in the framework of the GISS GMC model described by Hansen et al. (1983), using two scenarios: one starting from warmer polar temperatures/no sea ice and the other from the current ocean conditions. A 20-percent increase in cross-equatorial heat transport was sufficient to melt all sea ice; it resulted in a climate that was 2 C warmer for the global average, with values some 20-deg warmer at high altitudes and 1-deg warmer near the equator. It is suggested that the hydrological and dynamical changes associated with this different climate regime may be self-sustaining and, as such, would account for the high-latitude warmth of climates in the Mesozoic and Tertiary periods and the decadenal-scale climate fluctuations during the Holocene.

  3. Potential Costs of Acclimatization to a Warmer Climate: Growth of a Reef Coral with Heat Tolerant vs. Sensitive Symbiont Types

    PubMed Central

    Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray

    2010-01-01

    One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change. PMID:20454653

  4. Potential costs of acclimatization to a warmer climate: growth of a reef coral with heat tolerant vs. sensitive symbiont types.

    PubMed

    Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray

    2010-05-03

    One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change.

  5. Effects of a warmer climate on seed germination in the subarctic

    PubMed Central

    Milbau, Ann; Graae, Bente Jessen; Shevtsova, Anna; Nijs, Ivan

    2009-01-01

    Background and Aims In a future warmer subarctic climate, the soil temperatures experienced by dispersed seeds are likely to increase during summer but may decrease during winter due to expected changes in snow depth, duration and quality. Because little is known about the dormancy-breaking and germination requirements of subarctic species, how warming may influence the timing and level of germination in these species was examined. Methods Under controlled conditions, how colder winter and warmer summer soil temperatures influenced germination was tested in 23 subarctic species. The cold stratification and warm incubation temperatures were derived from real soil temperature measurements in subarctic tundra and the temperatures were gradually changed over time to simulate different months of the year. Key Results Moderate summer warming (+2·5 °C) substantially accelerated germination in all but four species but did not affect germination percentages. Optimum germination temperatures (20/10°C) further decreased germination time and increased germination percentages in three species. Colder winter soil temperatures delayed the germination in ten species and decreased the germination percentage in four species, whereas the opposite was found in Silene acaulis. In most species, the combined effect of a reduced snow cover and summer warming resulted in earlier germination and thus a longer first growing season, which improves the chance of seedling survival. In particular the recruitment of (dwarf) shrubs (Vaccinium myrtillus, V. vitis-idaea, Betula nana), trees (Alnus incana, Betula pubescens) and grasses (Calamagrostis lapponica, C. purpurea) is likely to benefit from a warmer subarctic climate. Conclusions Seedling establishment is expected to improve in a future warmer subarctic climate, mainly by considerably earlier germination. The magnitudes of the responses are species-specific, which should be taken into account when modelling population growth and migration

  6. Managing fire and fuels in a warmer climate

    Treesearch

    David L. Peterson

    2010-01-01

    This historical perspective on fire provides a window into the future of fire in the Pacific Northwest. Although fire will always be more common in the interior portion of the region, a warmer climate could bring more fire to the westside of the Cascade Range where summers are typically dry and will probably become drier. If future climate resembles the climate now...

  7. Precipitation Organization in a Warmer Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rickenbach, T. M.; Nieto Ferreira, R.; Nissenbaum, M.

    2014-12-01

    This study will investigate changes in precipitation organization in a warmer climate using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and CMIP-5 ensemble climate simulations. This work builds from an existing four-year NEXRAD radar-based precipitation climatology over the southeastern U.S. that uses a simple two-category framework of precipitation organization based on instantaneous precipitating feature size. The first category - mesoscale precipitation features (MPF) - dominates winter precipitation and is linked to the more predictable large-scale forcing provided by the extratropical cyclones. In contrast, the second category - isolated precipitation - dominates the summer season precipitation in the southern coastal and inland regions but is linked to less predictable mesoscale circulations and to local thermodynamics more crudely represented in climate models. Most climate modeling studies suggest that an accelerated water cycle in a warmer world will lead to an overall increase in precipitation, but few studies have addressed how precipitation organization may change regionally. To address this, WRF will simulate representative wintertime and summertime precipitation events in the Southeast US under the current and future climate. These events will be simulated in an environment resembling the future climate of the 2090s using the pseudo-global warming (PGW) approach based on an ensemble of temperature projections. The working hypothesis is that the higher water vapor content in the future simulation will result in an increase in the number of isolated convective systems, while MPFs will be more intense and longer-lasting. In the context of the seasonal climatology of MPF and isolated precipitation, these results have implications for assessing the predictability of future regional precipitation in the southeastern U.S.

  8. Biases in simulation of the rice phenology models when applied in warmer climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, T.; Li, T.; Yang, X.; Simelton, E.

    2015-12-01

    The current model inter-comparison studies highlight the difference in projections between crop models when they are applied to warmer climates, but these studies do not provide results on how the accuracy of the models would change in these projections because the adequate observations under largely diverse growing season temperature (GST) are often unavailable. Here, we investigate the potential changes in the accuracy of rice phenology models when these models were applied to a significantly warmer climate. We collected phenology data from 775 trials with 19 cultivars in 5 Asian countries (China, India, Philippines, Bangladesh and Thailand). Each cultivar encompasses the phenology observations under diverse GST regimes. For a given rice cultivar in different trials, the GST difference reaches 2.2 to 8.2°C, which allows us to calibrate the models under lower GST and validate under higher GST (i.e., warmer climates). Four common phenology models representing major algorithms on simulations of rice phenology, and three model calibration experiments were conducted. The results suggest that the bilinear and beta models resulted in gradually increasing phenology bias (Figure) and double yield bias per percent increase in phenology bias, whereas the growing-degree-day (GDD) and exponential models maintained a comparatively constant bias when applied in warmer climates (Figure). Moreover, the bias of phenology estimated by the bilinear and beta models did not reduce with increase in GST when all data were used to calibrate models. These suggest that variations in phenology bias are primarily attributed to intrinsic properties of the respective phenology model rather than on the calibration dataset. Therefore we conclude that using the GDD and exponential models has more chances of predicting rice phenology correctly and thus, production under warmer climates, and result in effective agricultural strategic adaptation to and mitigation of climate change.

  9. Spatial modeling to project Southern Appalachian Trout distribution in warmer climate

    Treesearch

    Patrica A. Flebbe; Laura D. Roghair; Jennifer L. Bruggink

    2006-01-01

    In the southern Appalachian Mountains, the distributions of native brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and introduced rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss and brown trout Salmo trutta are presently limited by temperature and are expected to be limited further by a warmer climate. To estimate trout habitat in a future...

  10. Climate threats on growth of rear-edge European beech peripheral populations in Spain.

    PubMed

    Dorado-Liñán, I; Akhmetzyanov, L; Menzel, A

    2017-12-01

    European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests in the Iberian Peninsula are a clear example of a temperate forest tree species at the rear edge of its large distribution area in Europe. The expected drier and warmer climate may alter tree growth and species distribution. Consequently, the peripheral populations will most likely be the most threatened ones. Four peripheral beech forests in the Iberian Peninsula were studied in order to assess the climate factors influencing tree growth for the last six decades. The analyses included an individual tree approach in order to detect not only the changes in the sensitivity to climate but also the potential size-mediated sensitivity to climate. Our results revealed a dominant influence of previous and current year summer on tree growth during the last six decades, although the analysis in two equally long periods unveiled changes and shifts in tree sensitivity to climate. The individual tree approach showed that those changes in tree response to climate are not size dependent in most of the cases. We observed a reduced negative effect of warmer winter temperatures at some sites and a generalized increased influence of previous year climatic conditions on current year tree growth. These results highlight the crucial role played by carryover effects and stored carbohydrates for future tree growth and species persistence.

  11. Climate threats on growth of rear-edge European beech peripheral populations in Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorado-Liñán, I.; Akhmetzyanov, L.; Menzel, A.

    2017-12-01

    European beech ( Fagus sylvatica L.) forests in the Iberian Peninsula are a clear example of a temperate forest tree species at the rear edge of its large distribution area in Europe. The expected drier and warmer climate may alter tree growth and species distribution. Consequently, the peripheral populations will most likely be the most threatened ones. Four peripheral beech forests in the Iberian Peninsula were studied in order to assess the climate factors influencing tree growth for the last six decades. The analyses included an individual tree approach in order to detect not only the changes in the sensitivity to climate but also the potential size-mediated sensitivity to climate. Our results revealed a dominant influence of previous and current year summer on tree growth during the last six decades, although the analysis in two equally long periods unveiled changes and shifts in tree sensitivity to climate. The individual tree approach showed that those changes in tree response to climate are not size dependent in most of the cases. We observed a reduced negative effect of warmer winter temperatures at some sites and a generalized increased influence of previous year climatic conditions on current year tree growth. These results highlight the crucial role played by carryover effects and stored carbohydrates for future tree growth and species persistence.

  12. Adapting to warmer climate through prolonged maize grain filling period in the US Midwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, P.; Zhuang, Q.; Jin, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Climate warming is expected to negatively impact the US food productivity. How to adapt to the future warmer environment and meet the rising food requirement becomes unprecedented urgent. Continuous satellite observational data provides an opportunity to examine the historic responses of crop plants to climate variation. Here 16 years crop growing phases information across US Midwest is generated based on satellite observations. We found a prolonged grain-filling period during 2000-2015, which could partly explain the increasing trend in Midwest maize yield. This longer grain-filling period might be resulted from the adoption of longer maturity group varieties or more resistant varieties to temperature variation. Other management practice changes like advance in planting date could be also an effective way of adapting future warmer climate through lowering the possibility of exposure to heat and drought stresses. If the progress in breeding technology enables the maize grain-filling period to prolong with the current rate, the maize grain filling length could be longer and maize yield in Midwest could adapt to future climate despite of the warming.

  13. Simulations of the effect of a warmer climate on atmospheric humidity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Del Genio, Anthony D.; Lacis, Andrew A.; Ruedy, Reto A.

    1991-01-01

    Increases in the concentration of water vapor constitute the single largest positive feedback in models of global climate warming caused by greenhouse gases. It has been suggested that sinking air in the regions surrounding deep cumulus clouds will dry the upper troposphere and eliminate or reverse the direction of water vapor feedback. This hypothesis has been tested by performing an idealized simulation of climate change with two different versions of a climate model which both incorporate drying due to subsidence of clear air but differ in their parameterization of moist convection and stratiform clouds. Despite increased drying of the upper troposphere by cumulus clouds, upper-level humidity increases in the warmer climate because of enhanced upward moisture transport by the general circulation and increased accumulation of water vapor and ice at cumulus cloud tops.

  14. Recent climate warming forces contrasting growth responses of white spruce at treeline in Alaska through temperature thresholds

    Treesearch

    Martin Wilmking; Glenn P. Juday; Valerie A. Barber; Harold S.J. Zald

    2004-01-01

    Northern and high-latitude alpine treelines are generally thought to be limited by available warmth. Most studies of tree-growth-climate interaction at treeline as well as climate reconstructions using dendrochronology report positive growth response of treeline trees to warmer temperatures. However, population-wide responses of treeline trees to climate remain largely...

  15. Quantifying the risks of winter damage on overwintering crops under future climates: Will low-temperature damage be more likely in warmer climates?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vico, G.; Weih, M.

    2014-12-01

    Autumn-sown crops act as winter cover crop, reducing soil erosion and nutrient leaching, while potentially providing higher yields than spring varieties in many environments. Nevertheless, overwintering crops are exposed for longer periods to the vagaries of weather conditions. Adverse winter conditions, in particular, may negatively affect the final yield, by reducing crop survival or its vigor. The net effect of the projected shifts in climate is unclear. On the one hand, warmer temperatures may reduce the frequency of low temperatures, thereby reducing damage risk. On the other hand, warmer temperatures, by reducing plant acclimation level and the amount and duration of snow cover, may increase the likelihood of damage. Thus, warmer climates may paradoxically result in more extensive low temperature damage and reduced viability for overwintering plants. The net effect of a shift in climate is explored by means of a parsimonious probabilistic model, based on a coupled description of air temperature, snow cover, and crop tolerable temperature. Exploiting an extensive dataset of winter wheat responses to low temperature exposure, the risk of winter damage occurrence is quantified under conditions typical of northern temperate latitudes. The full spectrum of variations expected with climate change is explored, quantifying the joint effects of alterations in temperature averages and their variability as well as shifts in precipitation. The key features affecting winter wheat vulnerability to low temperature damage under future climates are singled out.

  16. Contradictory cooling in a warmer world? the climate of the Mediterranean region during the ';Holocene Thermal Maximum'

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, B.

    2013-12-01

    Extensive evidence from high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere indicates that temperatures were warmer than present during the early-mid Holocene, a period known as the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM). The existence of the HTM over lower mid-latitudes and the sub-tropics however is less clear, with pollen-based reconstructions in particular actually indicating a contrary cooling at this time in these regions. This apparent cooling is controversial because it is not shown in climate model simulations, which indicate that the HTM occurred across all extra-tropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This is also supported by alkenone based SST reconstructions, which also show a much more widespread HTM than indicated by the pollen data. Here this problem is investigated by reviewing the evidence both for, and against, the HTM in the Mediterranean region, which represents one of the most intensively studied regions of sub-tropical climate in the Northern Hemisphere. This evidence includes a large number of both marine and terrestrial records that can be directly compared due to their close proximity around the Mediterranean Sea. The results highlight the potential for bias in both marine and terrestrial climate proxies, but despite many criticisms of the pollen-based record, it is shown that the existence of more extensive temperate vegetation in the early-mid Holocene in the Mediterranean is difficult to explain by anything other than a cooler climate. For instance, vegetation models driven by climate model output show that the warmer climate suggested by the models produces a HTM vegetation even more arid than today. The results have important implications in the interpretation of proxy records, but perhaps most importantly, the potential for climate models to underestimate cooling processes in a warmer world needs further investigation.

  17. Growth tradeoffs associated with thermotolerant symbionts in the coral Pocillopora damicornis are lost in warmer oceans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cunning, R.; Gillette, P.; Capo, T.; Galvez, K.; Baker, A. C.

    2015-03-01

    The growth and survival of reef corals are influenced by their symbiotic algal partners ( Symbiodinium spp.), which may be flexible in space and time. Tradeoffs among partnerships exist such that corals with thermotolerant symbionts (e.g., clade D) resist bleaching but grow more slowly, making the long-term ecosystem-level impacts of different host-symbiont associations uncertain. However, much of this uncertainty is due to limited data regarding these tradeoffs and particularly how they are mediated by the environment. To address this knowledge gap, we measured growth and survival of Pocillopora damicornis with thermally sensitive (clade C) or tolerant (clade D) symbionts at three temperatures over 18-55 weeks. Warming reduced coral growth overall, but altered the tradeoffs associated with symbiont type. While clade D corals grew 35-40 % slower than clade C corals at cooler temperatures (26 °C), warming of 1.5-3 °C reduced and eliminated this growth disadvantage. These results suggest that although warmer oceans will negatively impact corals, clade D may enhance survival at no cost to growth relative to clade C. Understanding these genotype-environment interactions can help improve modeling efforts and conservation strategies for reefs under global climate change.

  18. Forest structure, stand composition, and climate-growth response in montane forests of Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve, China.

    PubMed

    Schwartz, Mark W; Dolanc, Christopher R; Gao, Hui; Strauss, Sharon Y; Schwartz, Ari C; Williams, John N; Tang, Ya

    2013-01-01

    Montane forests of western China provide an opportunity to establish baseline studies for climate change. The region is being impacted by climate change, air pollution, and significant human impacts from tourism. We analyzed forest stand structure and climate-growth relationships from Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in northwestern Sichuan province, along the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau. We conducted a survey to characterize forest stand diversity and structure in plots occurring between 2050 and 3350 m in elevation. We also evaluated seedling and sapling recruitment and tree-ring data from four conifer species to assess: 1) whether the forest appears in transition toward increased hardwood composition; 2) if conifers appear stressed by recent climate change relative to hardwoods; and 3) how growth of four dominant species responds to recent climate. Our study is complicated by clear evidence of 20(th) century timber extraction. Focusing on regions lacking evidence of logging, we found a diverse suite of conifers (Pinus, Abies, Juniperus, Picea, and Larix) strongly dominate the forest overstory. We found population size structures for most conifer tree species to be consistent with self-replacement and not providing evidence of shifting composition toward hardwoods. Climate-growth analyses indicate increased growth with cool temperatures in summer and fall. Warmer temperatures during the growing season could negatively impact conifer growth, indicating possible seasonal climate water deficit as a constraint on growth. In contrast, however, we found little relationship to seasonal precipitation. Projected warming does not yet have a discernible signal on trends in tree growth rates, but slower growth with warmer growing season climates suggests reduced potential future forest growth.

  19. Forest Structure, Stand Composition, and Climate-Growth Response in Montane Forests of Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve, China

    PubMed Central

    Schwartz, Mark W.; Dolanc, Christopher R.; Gao, Hui; Strauss, Sharon Y.; Schwartz, Ari C.; Williams, John N.; Tang, Ya

    2013-01-01

    Montane forests of western China provide an opportunity to establish baseline studies for climate change. The region is being impacted by climate change, air pollution, and significant human impacts from tourism. We analyzed forest stand structure and climate-growth relationships from Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in northwestern Sichuan province, along the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau. We conducted a survey to characterize forest stand diversity and structure in plots occurring between 2050 and 3350 m in elevation. We also evaluated seedling and sapling recruitment and tree-ring data from four conifer species to assess: 1) whether the forest appears in transition toward increased hardwood composition; 2) if conifers appear stressed by recent climate change relative to hardwoods; and 3) how growth of four dominant species responds to recent climate. Our study is complicated by clear evidence of 20th century timber extraction. Focusing on regions lacking evidence of logging, we found a diverse suite of conifers (Pinus, Abies, Juniperus, Picea, and Larix) strongly dominate the forest overstory. We found population size structures for most conifer tree species to be consistent with self-replacement and not providing evidence of shifting composition toward hardwoods. Climate-growth analyses indicate increased growth with cool temperatures in summer and fall. Warmer temperatures during the growing season could negatively impact conifer growth, indicating possible seasonal climate water deficit as a constraint on growth. In contrast, however, we found little relationship to seasonal precipitation. Projected warming does not yet have a discernible signal on trends in tree growth rates, but slower growth with warmer growing season climates suggests reduced potential future forest growth. PMID:23951188

  20. Shifts of regional hydro-climatic regimes in the warmer future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, H.; Morishita, S.

    2016-12-01

    It is well known that the global climate is projected to be significantly warmer than pre-industrial period, and, in 2015, it was indicated as 1-degreen increase of global mean temperature that was unprecedented previously. Human-induced additional radiative forcing causes global and regional mean temperature increase and alters energy and water partitioning in the heterogeneous pathway. Budyko proposed a conceptual equation to estimate a climate-induced dryness relating available energy and precipitation, and it has been used broadly in hydrology communities to determine regional hydro-climatic characteristics. In this study, a diagnosis framework is proposed to traced how the regional hydro-climatic regimes are shifted under the warming condition with 4 °C increase of global mean temperature. A database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) based on a super-ensemble AMIP-style experiment (11,400 model years, totally) with sea surface temperature patterns extracted from six CMIP5 models is used to estimate the probability distribution of the regime shifts maximizing signal-to-noise. It was found that the global future hydro-climate condition shifts slightly to more humid condition comparing to the historical condition, since the increase of precipitation is greater and the increate of net radiation, globally. Very humid regions including tropics and semi-arid regions tend to expand, and Semi-humid and arid-regions tend to shrink. Although the change of global mean state between historical and future climate is not considerable, temporal variability under the warming climate is amplified significantly, and it induces more frequent occurrence of once-in-a-century level drought over large terrestrial regions including Africa, South America, East and Central Asia, Australia, and United States. This analysis will be extended up to the availability (expected as October 2016) of a similar database being produced under the Half a degree Additional

  1. A warmer and drier climate in the northern sagebrush biome does not promote cheatgrass invasion or change its response to fire.

    PubMed

    Larson, Christian D; Lehnhoff, Erik A; Rew, Lisa J

    2017-12-01

    Dryland shrub communities have been degraded by a range of disturbances and now face additional stress from global climate change. The spring/summer growing season of the North American sagebrush biome is projected to become warmer and drier, which is expected to facilitate the expansion of the invasive annual grass Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) and alter its response to fire in the northern extent of the biome. We tested these predictions with a factorial experiment with two levels of burning (spring burn and none) and three climate treatments (warming, warming + drying, and control) that was repeated over 3 years in a Montana sagebrush steppe. We expected the climate treatments to make B. tectorum more competitive with the native perennial grass community, especially Pseudoroegneria spicata, and alter its response to fire. Experimental warming and warming + drying reduced B. tectorum cover, biomass, and fecundity, but there was no response to fire except for fecundity, which increased; the native grass community was the most significant factor that affected B. tectorum metrics. The experimental climate treatments also negatively affected P. spicata, total native grass cover, and community biodiversity, while fire negatively affected total native grass cover, particularly when climate conditions were warmer and drier. Our short-term results indicate that without sufficient antecedent moisture and a significant disruption to the native perennial grass community, a change in climate to a warmer and drier spring/summer growing season in the northern sagebrush biome will not facilitate B. tectorum invasion or alter its response to fire.

  2. A High-Latitude Winter Continental Low Cloud Feedback Suppresses Arctic Air Formation in Warmer Climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cronin, T.; Tziperman, E.; Li, H.

    2015-12-01

    High latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. It has also been found that the high-latitude lapse rate feedback plays an important role in Arctic amplification of climate change in climate model simulations, but we have little understanding of why lapse rates at high latitudes change so strongly with warming. To better understand these problems, we study Arctic air formation - the process by which a high-latitude maritime air mass is advected over a continent during polar night, cooled at the surface by radiation, and transformed into a much colder continental polar air mass - and its sensitivity to climate warming. We use a single-column version of the WRF model to conduct two-week simulations of the cooling process across a wide range of initial temperature profiles and microphysics schemes, and find that a low cloud feedback suppresses Arctic air formation in warmer climates. This cloud feedback consists of an increase in low cloud amount with warming, which shields the surface from radiative cooling, and increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ~10 days for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 oC. Given that this is about the time it takes an air mass starting over the Pacific to traverse the north American continent, this suggests that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates. We find that CMIP5 climate model runs show large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, consistent with the proposed low-cloud feedback

  3. Tracking an atmospheric river in a warmer climate: from water vapor to economic impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominguez, Francina; Dall'erba, Sandy; Huang, Shuyi; Avelino, Andre; Mehran, Ali; Hu, Huancui; Schmidt, Arthur; Schick, Lawrence; Lettenmaier, Dennis

    2018-03-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for more than 75 % of heavy precipitation events and nearly all of the extreme flooding events along the Olympic Mountains and western Cascade Mountains of western Washington state. In a warmer climate, ARs in this region are projected to become more frequent and intense, primarily due to increases in atmospheric water vapor. However, it is unclear how the changes in water vapor transport will affect regional flooding and associated economic impacts. In this work we present an integrated modeling system to quantify the atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic and economic impacts of the December 2007 AR event that impacted the Chehalis River basin in western Washington. We use the modeling system to project impacts under a hypothetical scenario in which the same December 2007 event occurs in a warmer climate. This method allows us to incorporate different types of uncertainty, including (a) alternative future radiative forcings, (b) different responses of the climate system to future radiative forcings and (c) different responses of the surface hydrologic system. In the warming scenario, AR integrated vapor transport increases; however, these changes do not translate into generalized increases in precipitation throughout the basin. The changes in precipitation translate into spatially heterogeneous changes in sub-basin runoff and increased streamflow along the entire Chehalis main stem. Economic losses due to stock damages increase moderately, but losses in terms of business interruption are significant. Our integrated modeling tool provides communities in the Chehalis region with a range of possible future physical and economic impacts associated with AR flooding.

  4. The last interglacial in eastern Canada and the northwest North Atlantic : further evidence for warmer climate and ocean conditions than during the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Vernal, A.; Fréchette, B.; Hillaire-Marcel, C.; van Nieuwenhove, N.; Retailleau, S.

    2012-04-01

    The climate conditions of the last interglacial (LI) in northeastern and southeastern Canada are documented from pollen data of Baffin Island and Cape Breton Island respectively. The LI pollen assemblages indicate very different vegetation than at present and a northern limit of the deciduous forest biome as far as 500 km north of its modern position. The application of the modern analogue technique also reveal warmer climate during the LI than at present, 4-5°C warmer on Baffin Island at ~67-70°N in the Canadian Arctic, and up to 7°C warmer on Cape Breton Island at ~45°N in the southeastern Canada. The contrast between LI and Holocene climates is also shown from marine data (dinocysts, foraminifers, oxygen and carbon isotopes) that document warmer than Holocene conditions in surface waters (up to 5.5°C in summer, notably off southwest Greenland) and very distinct distribution of intermediate to deep waters in northern and southern part of the Labrador Sea. An important zonal atmospheric circulation component at mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic is also evidenced from the pollen content of marine cores collected in central North Atlantic (IODP Site 1304), which strongly suggests an origin from southeastern Canada. Altogether the data demonstrate much warmer conditions along the eastern Canadian margins, from North to South. The mild conditions along the coastlines and the relatively warm waters off eastern Canada and southern Greenland suggest reduced Arctic outflow components through the East Greenland Current and Labrador Current. Comparisons with records from eastern North Atlantic lead us to conclude in a more zonal climate during the LI than the Holocene, especially the early Holocene that was marked by a particularly pronounced west to east gradient of temperatures. Hence, the thermal optimum of the LI and that of the Holocene provide two examples of very different climate and ocean circulation regimes in the circum-Atlantic region during the "warm

  5. Enhanced growth of Juniperus thurifera under a warmer climate is explained by a positive carbon gain under cold and drought.

    PubMed

    Gimeno, Teresa E; Camarero, J Julio; Granda, Elena; Pías, Beatriz; Valladares, Fernando

    2012-03-01

    Juniperus thurifera L. is an endemic conifer of the western Mediterranean Basin where it is subjected to a severe climatic stress characterized by low winter temperatures and summer drought. Given the trend of increased warming-induced drought stress in this area and the climatic sensitivity of this species, we expect a negative impact of climate change on growth and ecophysiological performance of J. thurifera in the harsh environments where it dominates. To evaluate this, we measured long- and short-term radial growth using dendrochronology, photosynthesis and water-use efficiency in males, females and juveniles in three sites in Central Spain. Climate was monitored and completed with historical records. Mean annual temperature has increased +0.2 °C per decade in the study area, and the main warming trends corresponded to spring (+0.2 °C per decade) and summer (+0.3 °C per decade). Radial growth and maximum photosynthesis peaked in spring and autumn. Positive photosynthetic rates were maintained all year long, albeit at reduced rates in winter and summer. Radial growth was enhanced by wet conditions in the previous autumn and by warm springs and high precipitation in summer of the year of tree-ring formation. Cloud cover during the summer increased growth, while cloudy winters led to impaired carbon gain and reduced growth in the long term. We argue that maintenance of carbon gain under harsh conditions (low winter temperatures and dry summer months) and plastic xylogenesis underlie J. thurifera's ability to profit from changing climatic conditions such as earlier spring onset and erratic summer rainfall. Our results highlight that not only the magnitude but also the sign of the impact of climate change on growth and persistence of Mediterranean trees is species specific.

  6. Shrub growth response to climate across the North Slope of Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ackerman, D.; Griffin, D.; Finlay, J. C.; Hobbie, S. E.

    2016-12-01

    Warmer temperatures at high latitudes are driving the expansion of woody shrubs in arctic tundra, yielding feedbacks to regional carbon cycling. Accounting for these feedbacks in global climate models will require accurate predictions of the spatial extent of shrub expansion within arctic tundra. While dendroecological approaches have proven useful in understanding how shrubs respond to climate, empirical studies to date are limited in spatial extent, often to just one or two sites within a landscape. A recent meta-analysis of such dendroecological studies hypothesizes that soil moisture is a key variable in determining climate sensitivity of arctic shrub growth. We present the first regional-scale empirical test of this hypothesis by analyzing inter-annual radial growth of deciduous shrubs across soil moisture gradients throughout the North Slope of Alaska. Contrary to expectation, riparian shrubs in high-moisture environments showed no climate sensitivity, while shrubs growing in drier upland sites showed a strong positive growth response to summer temperature. These results proved robust to a variety of detrending functions ranging from conservative (negative exponential) to data adaptive (20-year cubic smoothing spline). These findings call into question the role of soil moisture in determining the climate sensitivity of arctic shrubs and further highlight the importance of unified, regional-scale sampling strategies in understanding climate-vegetation links.

  7. Pollen-proxies say cooler, climate models say warmer: resolving conflicting views of the Holocene climate of the Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russo, E.; Mauri, A.; Davis, B. A. S.; Cubasch, U.

    2017-12-01

    The evolution of the Mediterranean region's climate during the Holocene has been the subject of long-standing debate within the paleoclimate community. Conflicting hypotheses have emerged from the analysis of different climate reconstructions based on proxy records and climate models outputs.In particular, pollen-based reconstructions of cooler summer temperatures during the Holocene have been criticized based on a hypothesis that the Mediterranean vegetation is mainly limited by effective precipitation and not summer temperature. This criticism is important because climate models show warmer summer temperatures during the Holocene over the Mediterranean region, in direct contradiction of the pollen-based evidence. Here we investigate this problem using a high resolution model simulation of the climate of the Mediterranean region during the mid-to-late Holocene, which we compare against pollen-based reconstructions using two different approaches.In the first, we compare the simulated climate from the model directly with the climate derived from the pollen data. In the second, we compare the simulated vegetation from the model directly with the vegetation from the pollen data.Results show that the climate model is unable to simulate neither the climate nor the vegetation shown by the pollen-data. The pollen data indicates an expansion in cool temperate vegetation in the mid-Holocene while the model suggests an expansion in warm arid vegetation. This suggests that the data-model discrepancy is more likely the result of bias in climate models, and not bias in the pollen-climate calibration transfer-function.

  8. Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process-based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear-edges.

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Camarero, Jesus Julio; Gutiérrez, Emilia; González Rouco, Fidel; Gazol, Antonio; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Linares, Juan Carlos; Seftigen, Kristina

    2017-07-01

    Growth models can be used to assess forest vulnerability to climate warming. If global warming amplifies water deficit in drought-prone areas, tree populations located at the driest and southernmost distribution limits (rear-edges) should be particularly threatened. Here, we address these statements by analyzing and projecting growth responses to climate of three major tree species (silver fir, Abies alba; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris; and mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) in mountainous areas of NE Spain. This region is subjected to Mediterranean continental conditions, it encompasses wide climatic, topographic and environmental gradients, and, more importantly, it includes rear-edges of the continuous distributions of these tree species. We used tree-ring width data from a network of 110 forests in combination with the process-based Vaganov-Shashkin-Lite growth model and climate-growth analyses to forecast changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Climatic projections were based on four ensembles CO 2 emission scenarios. Warm and dry conditions during the growing season constrain silver fir and Scots pine growth, particularly at the species rear-edge. By contrast, growth of high-elevation mountain pine forests is enhanced by climate warming. The emission scenario (RCP 8.5) corresponding to the most pronounced warming (+1.4 to 4.8 °C) forecasted mean growth reductions of -10.7% and -16.4% in silver fir and Scots pine, respectively, after 2050. This indicates that rising temperatures could amplify drought stress and thus constrain the growth of silver fir and Scots pine rear-edge populations growing at xeric sites. Contrastingly, mountain pine growth is expected to increase by +12.5% due to a longer and warmer growing season. The projections of growth reduction in silver fir and Scots pine portend dieback and a contraction of their species distribution areas through potential local extinctions of the most vulnerable driest rear-edge stands. Our modeling

  9. Integrated Analysis of Climate, Soil, Topography and Vegetative Growth in Iberian Viticultural Regions

    PubMed Central

    Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Cardoso, Rita M.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Cancela, Javier J.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Santos, João A.

    2014-01-01

    The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO) and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation) were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate. PMID:25251495

  10. Integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth in Iberian viticultural regions.

    PubMed

    Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Cardoso, Rita M; Soares, Pedro M M; Cancela, Javier J; Pinto, Joaquim G; Santos, João A

    2014-01-01

    The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO) and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation) were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.

  11. Future summer mega-heatwave and record-breaking temperatures in a warmer France climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bador, Margot; Terray, Laurent; Boé, Julien; Somot, Samuel; Alias, Antoinette; Gibelin, Anne-Laure; Dubuisson, Brigitte

    2017-07-01

    This study focuses on future very hot summers associated with severe heatwaves and record-breaking temperatures in France. Daily temperature observations and a pair of historical and scenario (greenhouse gas radiative concentration pathway 8.5) simulations with the high-resolution (∼12.5 km) ALADIN regional climate model provide a robust framework to examine the spatial distribution of these extreme events and their 21st century evolution. Five regions are identified with an extreme event spatial clustering algorithm applied to observed temperatures. They are used to diagnose the 21st century heatwave spatial patterns. In the 2070s, we find a simulated mega-heatwave as severe as the 2003 observed heatwave relative to its contemporaneous climate. A 20-member initial condition ensemble is used to assess the sensitivity of this future heatwave to the internal variability in the regional climate model and to pre-existing land surface conditions. Even in a much warmer and drier climate in France, late spring dry land conditions may lead to a significant amplification of summer extreme temperatures and heatwave intensity through limitations in evapotranspiration. By 2100, the increase in summer temperature maxima exhibits a range from 6 °C to almost 13 °C in the five regions in France, relative to historical maxima. These projections are comparable with the estimates given by a large number of global climate models.

  12. Global lake evaporation accelerated by changes in surface energy allocation in a warmer climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Wei; Lee, Xuhui; Xiao, Wei; Liu, Shoudong; Schultz, Natalie; Wang, Yongwei; Zhang, Mi; Zhao, Lei

    2018-06-01

    Lake evaporation is a sensitive indicator of the hydrological response to climate change. Variability in annual lake evaporation has been assumed to be controlled primarily by the incoming surface solar radiation. Here we report simulations with a numerical model of lake surface fluxes, with input data based on a high-emissions climate change scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). In our simulations, the global annual lake evaporation increases by 16% by the end of the century, despite little change in incoming solar radiation at the surface. We attribute about half of this projected increase to two effects: periods of ice cover are shorter in a warmer climate and the ratio of sensible to latent heat flux decreases, thus channelling more energy into evaporation. At low latitudes, annual lake evaporation is further enhanced because the lake surface warms more slowly than the air, leading to more long-wave radiation energy available for evaporation. We suggest that an analogous change in the ratio of sensible to latent heat fluxes in the open ocean can help to explain some of the spread among climate models in terms of their sensitivity of precipitation to warming. We conclude that an accurate prediction of the energy balance at the Earth's surface is crucial for evaluating the hydrological response to climate change.

  13. Western juniper and ponderosa pine ecotonal climate-growth relationships across landscape gradients in southern Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knutson, K.C.; Pyke, D.A.

    2008-01-01

    Forecasts of climate change for the Pacific northwestern United States predict warmer temperatures, increased winter precipitation, and drier summers. Prediction of forest growth responses to these climate fluctuations requires identification of climatic variables limiting tree growth, particularly at limits of free species distributions. We addressed this problem at the pine-woodland ecotone using tree-ring data for western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis var. occidentalis Hook.) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Loud.) from southern Oregon. Annual growth chronologies for 1950-2000 were developed for each species at 17 locations. Correlation and linear regression of climate-growth relationships revealed that radial growth in both species is highly dependent on October-June precipitation events that recharge growing season soil water. Mean annual radial growth for the nine driest years suggests that annual growth in both species is more sensitive to drought at lower elevations and sites with steeper slopes and sandy or rocky soils. Future increases in winter precipitation could increase productivity in both species at the pine-woodland ecotone. Growth responses, however, will also likely vary across landscape features, and our findings suggest that heightened sensitivity to future drought periods and increased temperatures in the two species will predominantly occur at lower elevation sites with poor water-holding capacities. ?? 2008 NRC.

  14. Asymmetric effects of cooler and warmer winters on beech phenology last beyond spring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Signarbieux, Constant; Toledano, Ester; Sangines, Paula; Fu, Yongshuo; Schlaepfer, Rodolphe; Buttler, Alexandre; Vitasse, Yann

    2017-04-01

    In temperate trees, the timing of plant growth onset and cessation affect biogeochemical cycles, water and energy balance. Currently, phenological studies largely focus on specific phenophases and on their responses to warming. How differently spring phenology responds to the warming and cooling, and affects the subsequent phases, has not been well investigated. Here, we exposed saplings of Fagus sylvatica L. to warmer and cooler climate during the winter 2013-2014 by conducting a reciprocal transplant experiment between two elevations (1340 vs. 371 m.a.s.l., ca. 6°C difference) in the Swiss Jura mountains. To test the legacy effects of earlier or later budburst on the budset timing, saplings were moved back to their original elevation shortly after the occurrence of budburst in spring 2014. One degree decrease of air temperature resulted in a delay of 10.9 days in budburst dates, whereas one degree of warming advanced the date by 8.8 days. Interestingly, we found an asymmetric effect of the warmer winter vs. cooler winter on the budset timing in autumn: saplings experiencing a cooler winter showed a delay of 31 days in their budset timing compared to the control, whereas saplings experiencing a warmer winter showed 10 days earlier budset. The dependency of spring over autumn phenophases might be partly explained by the building up of the non-structural carbohydrate storage and suggests that the potential delay in growth cessation due to global warming might be smaller than expected. We did not find a significant correlation in budburst dates between 2014 and 2015, indicating that the legacy effects of the different phenophases might be reset during each winter. Adapting phenological models to the whole annual phenological cycle, and considering the different response to cooling and warming, would improve predictions of tree phenology under future climate warming conditions.

  15. Warmer and drier conditions and nitrogen fertilizer application altered methanotroph abundance and methane emissions in a vegetable soil.

    PubMed

    Ran, Yu; Xie, Jianli; Xu, Xiaoya; Li, Yong; Liu, Yapeng; Zhang, Qichun; Li, Zheng; Xu, Jianming; Di, Hongjie

    2017-01-01

    Methane (CH 4 ) is a potent greenhouse gas, and soil can both be a source and sink for atmospheric CH 4 . It is not clear how future climate change may affect soil CH 4 emissions and related microbial communities. The aim of this study was to determine the interactive effects of a simulated warmer and drier climate scenarios and the application of different nitrogen (N) sources (urea and manure) on CH 4 emissions and related microbial community abundance in a vegetable soil. Greenhouses were used to control simulated climate conditions which gave 2.99 °C warmer and 6.2% lower water content conditions. The field experiment was divided into two phases. At the beginning of phase II, half of the greenhouses were removed to study possible legacy effects of the simulated warmer and drier conditions. The responses in methanogen and methanotroph abundance to a simulated climate change scenario were determined using real-time PCR. The results showed that the simulated warmer and drier conditions in the greenhouses significantly decreased CH 4 emissions largely due to the lower soil moisture content. For the same reason, CH 4 emissions of treatments in phase I were much lower than the same treatments in phase II. The abundance of methanotrophs showed a more significant response than methanogens to the simulated climate change scenario, increasing under simulated drier conditions. Methanogenic community abundance remained low, except where manure was applied which provided a source of organic C that stimulated methanogen growth. Soil moisture content was a major driver for methanotroph abundance and strongly affected CH 4 emissions. The application of N source decreased CH 4 emissions probably because of increased methanotrophic activity. CH 4 emissions were positively correlated to methanogenic abundance and negatively correlated to methanotrophic abundance. These results demonstrate that projected future climate change conditions can have a feedback impact on CH 4

  16. Forest phenology and a warmer climate - Growing season extension in relation to climatic provenance

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gunderson, Carla A; Edwards, Nelson T; Walker, Ashley V

    2012-01-01

    Predicting forest responses to warming climates relies on assumptions about niche and temperature sensitivity that remain largely untested. Observational studies have related current and historical temperatures to phenological shifts, but experimental evidence is sparse, particularly for autumn responses. A five-year field experiment exposed four deciduous forest species from contrasting climates (Liquidambar styraciflua, Quercus rubra, Populus grandidentata, and Betula alleghaniensis) to air temperatures 2 and 4 C above ambient controls. Impacts of year-round warming on bud burst (BB), senescence and abscission were evaluated in relation to thermal provenance. Leaves emerged earlier in all species, by an average of 6-9 days atmore » +2 and +4 C. Magnitude of advance varied with species and year, but was larger for the first 2 C increment than the second. The effect of warming increased with early BB, favoring Liquidambar, from the warmest climate, but even BB in northern species advanced, despite temperatures well beyond those of the realized niche. Treatment differences in BB were poorly explained by temperature sums, which increased with treatment. In autumn, chlorophyll was retained an average of 4 and 7 days longer in +2 and +4 C treatments, and abscission delayed by 8 and 13 days. Species differences in autumn responses were marginally significant. Growing seasons in the warmer atmospheres were 6 - 28 days longer, with the least impact in Quercus. Results are compared with a 16-year record of canopy onset and offset in a nearby upland deciduous forest, where BB showed similar responsiveness to spring temperatures (2 - 4 days C-1). Offset dates in the stand tracked August-September temperatures, except when late summer drought caused premature senescence. The common garden-like experimental approach provides evidence that warming alone extends the growing season, at both ends, even if stand-level impacts are complicated by other environmental factors.« less

  17. [Responses of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica radial growth to climate warming in Great Xing' an Mountins: a case study in Mangui].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xing-Liang; He, Xing-Yuan; Chen, Zhen-Ju; Cui, Ming-Xing; Li, Na

    2011-12-01

    Based on the theory and methodology of dendrochronology, the tree ring width chronology of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica in Mangui of Great Xing' an Mountains was developed, and the relationships between the standardized tree ring width chronology and local climate factors (temperature and precipitation) as well as the effects of climate factors on the P. sylvestris var. mongolica radial growth were analyzed. In this region, the mean monthly temperature in April-August of current year was the main factor limiting the radial growth, and the increasing mean monthly temperature from April to August had negative effects to the radial growth. The simulation of the variations of the radial growth by the mean monthly temperature change in April-August showed that the radial growth of P. sylvestris var. mongolica would present a declining trend accompanied with the warmer and drier regional climate condition.

  18. Growth responses of Scots pine to climatic factors on reclaimed oil shale mined land.

    PubMed

    Metslaid, Sandra; Stanturf, John A; Hordo, Maris; Korjus, Henn; Laarmann, Diana; Kiviste, Andres

    2016-07-01

    Afforestation on reclaimed mining areas has high ecological and economic importance. However, ecosystems established on post-mining substrate can become vulnerable due to climate variability. We used tree-ring data and dendrochronological techniques to study the relationship between climate variables and annual growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growing on reclaimed open cast oil shale mining areas in Northeast Estonia. Chronologies for trees of different age classes (50, 40, 30) were developed. Pearson's correlation analysis between radial growth indices and monthly climate variables revealed that precipitation in June-July and higher mean temperatures in spring season enhanced radial growth of pine plantations, while higher than average temperatures in summer months inhibited wood production. Sensitivity of radial increment to climatic factors on post-mining soils was not homogenous among the studied populations. Older trees growing on more developed soils were more sensitive to precipitation deficit in summer, while growth indices of two other stand groups (young and middle-aged) were highly correlated to temperature. High mean temperatures in August were negatively related to annual wood production in all trees, while trees in the youngest stands benefited from warmer temperatures in January. As a response to thinning, mean annual basal area increment increased up to 50 %. By managing tree competition in the closed-canopy stands, through the thinning activities, tree sensitivity and response to climate could be manipulated.

  19. More Intense Mega Heat Waves in the Warmer World

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, G.; Robinson, D. A.

    2017-12-01

    In this study, changes in the occurrences of heat waves on the globe since the mid- 20th century and the synoptic characteristics of mega heat waves at regional scales in the warmer climate are examined. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis surface data show that there have been no obvious linear changes in the heat wave frequencies at the continental scales since the mid-20th century, but amplified interdecadal variations led to unprecedented intense heat waves in the recent decades at the regional scales. Such mega heat waves have been more frequently observed in the poleward subtropical climate belts as well as in the interior region of continents. According to the analyses of upper tropospheric data, the occurrences of more intense mega heat waves since the late 20th century may be associated with the expansion of subtropical high pressures. These results suggest that populous cities near the subtropical climate zones should provide proactive mega heat wave warning systems for residents due to their vulnerability to the sudden attack of human lives harvest by mega heat waves in the warmer 21st century.

  20. Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ford, Kevin R.; Harrington, Constance A.; Bansal, Sheel; Gould, Petter J.; St. Clair, Bradley

    2016-01-01

    Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures (“forcing”) typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures (“chilling”) while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height- and diameter-growth initiation in coast Douglas-fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field-based and controlled-environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, towards lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter-growth initiation than height-growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas-fir to climate change at the warm

  1. Tree-ring growth of Scots pine, Common beech and Pedunculate oak under future climate in northeastern Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jurasinski, Gerald; Scharnweber, Tobias; Schröder, Christian; Lennartz, Bernd; Bauwe, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    Germany Scots pine has great potential to remain resilient to projected climate change without any greater impairment, whereas Common beech and Pedunculate oak will likely face lesser growth under the expected warmer and dryer climate conditions. The results call for an adaptation of forest management to mitigate the negative effects of climate change for beech and oak in the region.

  2. Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia

    PubMed Central

    Camarero, J. Julio; Carrer, Marco; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Alla, Arben Q.; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Hevia, Andrea; Koutavas, Athanasios; Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet; Nola, Paola; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Pasho, Edmond; Toromani, Ervin

    2017-01-01

    Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950–2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells. PMID:29109266

  3. Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia.

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Camarero, J Julio; Carrer, Marco; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Alla, Arben Q; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Hevia, Andrea; Koutavas, Athanasios; Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet; Nola, Paola; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Pasho, Edmond; Toromani, Ervin; Carreira, José A; Linares, Juan C

    2017-11-21

    Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950-2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells.

  4. Thermal physiology of native cool-climate, and non-native warm-climate Pumpkinseed sunfish raised in a common environment.

    PubMed

    Rooke, Anna C; Burness, Gary; Fox, Michael G

    2017-02-01

    Contemporary evolution of thermal physiology has the potential to help limit the physiological stress associated with rapidly changing thermal environments; however it is unclear if wild populations can respond quickly enough for such changes to be effective. We used native Canadian Pumpkinseed (Lepomis gibbosus) sunfish, and non-native Pumpkinseed introduced into the milder climate of Spain ~100 years ago, to assess genetic differences in thermal physiology in response to the warmer non-native climate. We compared temperature performance reaction norms of two Canadian and two Spanish Pumpkinseed populations born and raised within a common environment. We found that Canadian Pumpkinseed had higher routine metabolic rates when measured at seasonally high temperatures (15°C in winter, 30°C in summer), and that Spanish Pumpkinseed had higher critical thermal maxima when acclimated to 30°C in the summer. Growth rates were not significantly different among populations, however Canadian Pumpkinseed tended to have faster growth at the warmest temperatures measured (32°C). The observed differences in physiology among Canadian and Spanish populations at the warmest acclimation temperatures are consistent with the introduced populations being better suited to the warmer non-native climate than native populations. The observed differences could be the result of either founder effects, genetic drift, and/or contemporary adaptive evolution in the warmer non-native climate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir.

    PubMed

    Ford, Kevin R; Harrington, Constance A; Bansal, Sheel; Gould, Peter J; St Clair, J Bradley

    2016-11-01

    Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures ('forcing') typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures ('chilling') while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height- and diameter-growth initiation in coast Douglas-fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field-based and controlled-environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, toward lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter-growth initiation than height-growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas-fir to climate change at the warm edges of

  6. Shrub growth and plant diversity along an elevation gradient: Evidence of indirect effects of climate on alpine ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Casolo, Valentino; Beraldo, Paola; Braidot, Enrico; Zancani, Marco; Rixen, Christian

    2018-01-01

    Enhanced shrub growth and expansion are widespread responses to climate warming in many arctic and alpine ecosystems. Warmer temperatures and shrub expansion could cause major changes in plant community structure, affecting both species composition and diversity. To improve our understanding of the ongoing changes in plant communities in alpine tundra, we studied interrelations among climate, shrub growth, shrub cover and plant diversity, using an elevation gradient as a proxy for climate conditions. Specifically, we analyzed growth of bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus L.) and its associated plant communities along an elevation gradient of ca. 600 vertical meters in the eastern European Alps. We assessed the ramet age, ring width and shoot length of V. myrtillus, and the shrub cover and plant diversity of the community. At higher elevation, ramets of V. myrtillus were younger, with shorter shoots and narrower growth rings. Shoot length was positively related to shrub cover, but shrub cover did not show a direct relationship with elevation. A greater shrub cover had a negative effect on species richness, also affecting species composition (beta-diversity), but these variables were not influenced by elevation. Our findings suggest that changes in plant diversity are driven directly by shrub cover and only indirectly by climate, here represented by changes in elevation. PMID:29698464

  7. Climatic limits on foliar growth during major droughts in the Southwestern U.S.A.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Weiss, Jeremy L.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.

    2012-01-01

    Pronounced droughts during the 1950s and 2000s in the Southwestern U.S.A. (SW) provide an opportunity to compare mesoscale ecosystem responses to anomalously dry conditions before and during the regional warming that started in the late 1970s. This year-round warming has produced fewer cool season freezes, losses in regional snowpack, an 8-10 day advance in spring onset, and hotter summers, all of which should affect vegetation differently across seasons and elevations. Here, we examine indices that represent climatic limits on foliar growth for both drought periods, and evaluate these indices for areas that experienced tree mortality during the 2000s drought. Relative to the 1950s drought, warmer conditions during the 2000s drought decreased the occurrence of temperatures too low for foliar growth at lower elevations in winter and higher elevations in summer. Higher vapor pressure deficits (VPDs) largely driven by warmer temperatures in the more recent drought were more limiting to foliar growth from spring through summer at lower and middle elevations. At many locations where tree mortality occurred during the 2000s drought, low-temperature constraints on foliar growth were extremely unlimiting, whereas VPD constraints were extremely limiting from early spring through late autumn. Our analysis shows that in physiographically complex regions like the SW, seasonality and elevational gradients are important for understanding vegetative responses to warming. It also suggests that continued warming will increase the degree to which VPD limits foliar growth during future droughts, and expand its reach to higher elevations and other seasons.

  8. Linking wood anatomy and xylogenesis allows pinpointing of climate and drought influences on growth of coexisting conifers in continental Mediterranean climate.

    PubMed

    Pacheco, Arturo; Camarero, J Julio; Carrer, Marco

    2016-04-01

    Forecasted warmer and drier conditions will probably lead to reduced growth rates and decreased carbon fixation in long-term woody pools in drought-prone areas. We therefore need a better understanding of how climate stressors such as drought constrain wood formation and drive changes in wood anatomy. Drying trends could lead to reduced growth if they are more intense in spring, when radial growth rates of conifers in continental Mediterranean climates peak. Since tree species from the aforementioned areas have to endure dry summers and also cold winters, we chose two coexisting species: Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensisMill., Pinaceae) and Spanish juniper (Juniperus thuriferaL., Cupressaceae) (10 randomly selected trees per species), to analyze how growth (tree-ring width) and wood-anatomical traits (lumen transversal area, cell-wall thickness, presence of intra-annual density fluctuations-IADFs-in the latewood) responded to climatic variables (minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, soil moisture deficit) calculated for different time intervals. Tree-ring width and mean lumen area showed similar year-to-year variability, which indicates that they encoded similar climatic signals. Wet and cool late-winter to early-spring conditions increased lumen area expansion, particularly in pine. In juniper, cell-wall thickness increased when early summer conditions became drier and the frequency of latewood IADFs increased in parallel with late-summer to early-autumn wet conditions. Thus, latewood IADFs of the juniper capture increased water availability during the late growing season, which is reflected in larger tracheid lumens. Soil water availability was one of the main drivers of wood formation and radial growth for the two species. These analyses allow long-term (several decades) growth and wood-anatomical responses to climate to be inferred at intra-annual scales, which agree with the growing patterns already described by xylogenesis approaches for the same

  9. Climate change. Climate in Medieval time.

    PubMed

    Bradley, Raymond S; Hughes, Malcolm K; Diaz, Henry F

    2003-10-17

    Many papers have referred to a "Medieval Warm Period." But how well defined is climate in this period, and was it as warm as or warmer than it is today? In their Perspective, Bradley et al. review the evidence and conclude that although the High Medieval (1100 to 1200 A.D.) was warmer than subsequent centuries, it was not warmer than the late 20th century. Moreover, the warmest Medieval temperatures were not synchronous around the globe. Large changes in precipitation patterns are a particular characteristic of "High Medieval" time. The underlying mechanisms for such changes must be elucidated further to inform the ongoing debate on natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.

  10. Western forest, fire risk, and climate change

    Treesearch

    Valerie Rapp

    2004-01-01

    Climate warming may first show up in forests as increased growth, which occurs as warmer temperatures, increased carbon dioxide, and more precipitation encourage higher rates of photosynthesis. The second way that climate change may show up in forests is through changes in disturbance regimes—the long-term patterns of fire, drought, insects, and diseases that are basic...

  11. Western forests, fire risk, and climate change.

    Treesearch

    Valerie Rapp

    2004-01-01

    Climate warming may first show up in forests as increased growth, which occurs as warmer temperatures, increased carbon dioxide, and more precipitation encourage higher rates of photosynthesis. The second way that climate change may show up in forests is through changes in disturbance regimes—the long-term patterns of fire, drought, insects, and diseases that are basic...

  12. Converging Climate Sensitivities of European Forests Between Observed Radial Tree Growth and Vegetation Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhang, Zhen; Babst, Flurin; Bellassen, Valentin; Frank, David; Launois, Thomas; Tan, Kun; Ciais, Philippe; Poulter, Benjamin

    2017-01-01

    The impacts of climate variability and trends on European forests are unevenly distributed across different bioclimatic zones and species. Extreme climate events are also becoming more frequent and it is unknown how they will affect feed backs of CO2 between forest ecosystems and the atmosphere. An improved understanding of species differences at the regional scale of the response of forest productivity to climate variation and extremes is thus important for forecasting forest dynamics. In this study, we evaluate the climate sensitivity of above ground net primary production (NPP) simulated by two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM; ORCHIDEE and LPJ-wsl) against tree ring width (TRW) observations from about1000 sites distributed across Europe. In both the model simulations and the TRW observations, forests in northern Europe and the Alps respond positively to warmer spring and summer temperature, and their overall temperature sensitivity is larger than that of the soil-moisture-limited forests in central Europe and Mediterranean regions. Compared with TRW observations, simulated NPP from ORCHIDEE and LPJ-wsl appear to be overly sensitive to climatic factors. Our results indicate that the models lack biological processes that control time lags, such as carbohydrate storage and remobilization, that delay the effects of radial growth dynamics to climate. Our study highlights the need for re-evaluating the physiological controls on the climate sensitivity of NPP simulated by DGVMs. In particular, DGVMs could be further enhanced by a more detailed representation of carbon reserves and allocation that control year-to year variation in plant growth.

  13. Stand Competition Determines How Different Tree Species Will Cope with a Warming Climate

    PubMed Central

    Fernández-de-Uña, Laura; Cañellas, Isabel; Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo

    2015-01-01

    Plant-plant interactions influence how forests cope with climate and contribute to modulate species response to future climate scenarios. We analysed the functional relationships between growth, climate and competition for Pinus sylvestris, Quercus pyrenaica and Quercus faginea to investigate how stand competition modifies forest sensitivity to climate and simulated how annual growth rates of these species with different drought tolerance would change throughout the 21st century. Dendroecological data from stands subjected to thinning were modelled using a novel multiplicative nonlinear approach to overcome biases related to the general assumption of a linear relationship between covariates and to better mimic the biological relationships involved. Growth always decreased exponentially with increasing competition, which explained more growth variability than climate in Q. faginea and P. sylvestris. The effect of precipitation was asymptotic in all cases, while the relationship between growth and temperature reached an optimum after which growth declined with warmer temperatures. Our growth projections indicate that the less drought-tolerant P. sylvestris would be more negatively affected by climate change than the studied sub-Mediterranean oaks. Q. faginea and P. sylvestris mean growth would decrease under all the climate change scenarios assessed. However, P. sylvestris growth would decline regardless of the competition level, whereas this decrease would be offset by reduced competition in Q. faginea. Conversely, Q. pyrenaica growth would remain similar to current rates, except for the warmest scenario. Our models shed light on the nature of the species-specific interaction between climate and competition and yield important implications for management. Assuming that individual growth is directly related to tree performance, trees under low competition would better withstand the warmer conditions predicted under climate change scenarios but in a variable manner

  14. Potential effect of atmospheric warming on grapevine phenology and post-harvest heat accumulation across a range of climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hall, Andrew; Mathews, Adam J.; Holzapfel, Bruno P.

    2016-09-01

    Carbohydrates are accumulated within the perennial structure of grapevines when their production exceeds the requirements of reproduction and growth. The period between harvest and leaf-fall (the post-harvest period) is a key period for carbohydrate accumulation in relatively warmer grape-growing regions. The level of carbohydrate reserves available for utilisation in the following season has an important effect on canopy growth and yield potential and is therefore an important consideration in vineyard management. In a warming climate, the post-harvest period is lengthening and becoming warmer, evidenced through studies in wine regions worldwide that have correlated recent air temperature increases with changing grapevine phenology. Budbreak, flowering, veraison, and harvest have all been observed to be occurring earlier than in previous decades. Additionally, the final stage of the grapevine phenological cycle, leaf-fall, occurs later. This study explored the potential for increased post-harvest carbohydrate accumulation by modelling heat accumulation following harvest dates for the recent climate (1975-2004) and two warmer climate projections with mean temperature anomalies of +1.26 and +2.61 °C. Summaries of post-harvest heat accumulation between harvest and leaf-fall were produced for each of Australia's Geographical Indications (wine regions) to provide comparisons from the base temperatures to projected warmer conditions across a range of climates. The results indicate that for warmer conditions, all regions observe earlier occurring budbreak and harvest as well as increasing post-harvest growing degree days accumulation before leaf-fall. The level of increase varies depending upon starting climatic condition, with cooler regions experiencing the greatest change.

  15. The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Goodsman, Devin W.; Grosklos, Guenchik; Aukema, Brian H.

    Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km 2, that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountainmore » pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources.« less

  16. The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition.

    PubMed

    Goodsman, Devin W; Grosklos, Guenchik; Aukema, Brian H; Whitehouse, Caroline; Bleiker, Katherine P; McDowell, Nate G; Middleton, Richard S; Xu, Chonggang

    2018-05-29

    Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km 2 , that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition

    DOE PAGES

    Goodsman, Devin W.; Grosklos, Guenchik; Aukema, Brian H.; ...

    2018-05-29

    Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km 2, that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountainmore » pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources.« less

  18. Photosynthetic capacity and leaf nitrogen decline along a controlled climate gradient in provenances of two widely distributed Eucalyptus species.

    PubMed

    Crous, Kristine Y; Drake, John E; Aspinwall, Michael J; Sharwood, Robert E; Tjoelker, Mark G; Ghannoum, Oula

    2018-05-27

    Climate is an important factor limiting tree distributions and adaptation to different thermal environments may influence how tree populations respond to climate warming. Given the current rate of warming, it has been hypothesized that tree populations in warmer, more thermally stable climates may have limited capacity to respond physiologically to warming compared to populations from cooler, more seasonal climates. We determined in a controlled environment how several provenances of widely distributed Eucalyptus tereticornis and E. grandis adjusted their photosynthetic capacity to +3.5°C warming along their native distribution range (~16-38°S) and whether climate of seed origin of the provenances influenced their response to different growth temperatures. We also tested how temperature optima (T opt ) of photosynthesis and J max responded to higher growth temperatures. Our results showed increased photosynthesis rates at a standardized temperature with warming in temperate provenances, while rates in tropical provenances were reduced by about 40% compared to their temperate counterparts. Temperature optima of photosynthesis increased as provenances were exposed to warmer growth temperatures. Both species had ~30% reduced photosynthetic capacity in tropical and subtropical provenances related to reduced leaf nitrogen and leaf Rubisco content compared to temperate provenances. Tropical provenances operated closer to their thermal optimum and came within 3% of the T opt of J max during the daily temperature maxima. Hence, further warming may negatively affect C uptake and tree growth in warmer climates, whereas eucalypts in cooler climates may benefit from moderate warming. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei

    2018-05-01

    The widely used design storms in urban drainage networks has different drawbacks. One of them is that the shape of the rainfall temporal pattern is fixed regardless of climate change. However, previous studies have shown that the temporal pattern may scale with temperature due to climate change, which consequently affects peak flow. Thus, in addition to the scaling of the rainfall volume, the scaling relationship for the rainfall temporal pattern with temperature needs to be investigated by deriving the scaling values for each fraction within storm events, which is lacking in many parts of the world including the UK. Therefore, this study analysed rainfall data from 28 gauges close to the study area with a 15-min resolution as well as the daily temperature data. It was found that, at warmer temperatures, the rainfall temporal pattern becomes less uniform, with more intensive peak rainfall during higher intensive times and weaker rainfall during less intensive times. This is the case for storms with and without seasonal separations. In addition, the scaling values for both the rainfall volume and the rainfall fractions (i.e. each segment of rainfall temporal pattern) for the summer season were found to be higher than the corresponding results for the winter season. Applying the derived scaling values for the temporal pattern of the summer season in a hydrodynamic sewer network model produced high percentage change of peak flow between the current and future climate. This study on the scaling of rainfall fractions is the first in the UK, and its findings are of importance to modellers and designers of sewer systems because it can provide more robust scenarios for flooding mitigation in urban areas.

  20. 21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

  1. 21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

  2. 21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

  3. 21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

  4. 21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

  5. Coexisting oak species, including rear-edge populations, buffer climate stress through xylem adjustments.

    PubMed

    Granda, E; Alla, A Q; Laskurain, N A; Loidi, J; Sánchez-Lorenzo, A; Camarero, J J

    2018-02-01

    The ability of trees to cope with climate change is a pivotal feature of forest ecosystems, especially for rear-edge populations facing warm and dry conditions. To evaluate current and future forests threats, a multi-proxy focus on the growth, anatomical and physiological responses to climate change is needed. We examined the long-term xylem adjustments to climate variability of the temperate Quercus robur L. at its rear edge and the sub-Mediterranean Quercus pyrenaica Willd. Both species coexist at a mesic (ME, humid and warmer) and a xeric (XE, dry and cooler) site in northern Spain, the latter experiencing increasing temperatures in recent decades. We compared xylem traits at each site and assessed their trends, relationships and responses to climate (1960-2008). Traits included basal area increment, earlywood vessel hydraulic diameter, density and theoretical-specific hydraulic conductivity together with latewood oxygen (δ18O) stable isotopes and δ13C-derived water-use efficiency (iWUE). Quercus robur showed the highest growth at ME, likely through enhanced cambial activity. Quercus pyrenaica had higher iWUE at XE compared with ME, but limited plasticity of anatomical xylem traits was found for the two oak species. Similar physiological performance was found for both species. The iWUE augmented in recent years especially at XE, likely explained by stomatal closure given the increasing δ18O signal in response to drier and sunnier growing seasons. Overall, traits were more correlated at XE than at ME. The iWUE improvements were linked to higher growth up to a threshold (~85 μmol mol-1) after which reduced growth was found at XE. Our results are consistent with Q. pyrenaica and Q. robur coexisting at the central and dry edge of the climatic species distribution, respectively, showing similar responses to buffer warmer conditions. In fact, the observed adjustments found for Q. robur point towards growth stability of similar rear-edge oak populations under

  6. Northeastern North America as a potential refugium for boreal forests in a warming climate.

    PubMed

    D'Orangeville, L; Duchesne, L; Houle, D; Kneeshaw, D; Côté, B; Pederson, N

    2016-06-17

    High precipitation in boreal northeastern North America could help forests withstand the expected temperature-driven increase in evaporative demand, but definitive evidence is lacking. Using a network of tree-ring collections from 16,450 stands across 583,000 km(2) of boreal forests in Québec, Canada, we observe a latitudinal shift in the correlation of black spruce growth with temperature and reduced precipitation, from negative south of 49°N to largely positive to the north of that latitude. Our results suggest that the positive effect of a warmer climate on growth rates and growing season length north of 49°N outweighs the potential negative effect of lower water availability. Unlike the central and western portions of the continent's boreal forest, northeastern North America may act as a climatic refugium in a warmer climate. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  7. Food Safety for Warmer Weather

    MedlinePlus

    ... Fight Off Food Poisoning Food Safety for Warmer Weather En español Send us your comments In warm-weather months, who doesn’t love to get outside ... to keep foods safe to eat during warmer weather. If you’re eating or preparing foods outside, ...

  8. Tropical cyclones in a stabilized 1.5 and 2 degree warmer world.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wehner, M. F.; Stone, D. A.; Loring, B.; Krishnan, H.

    2017-12-01

    We present an ensemble of very high resolution global climate model simulations of a stabilized 1.5oC and 2oC warmer climate as envisioned by the Paris COP21 agreement. The resolution of this global climate model (25km) permits simulated tropical cyclones up to Category Five on the Saffir-Simpson scale Projected changes in tropical cyclones are significant. Tropical cyclones in the two stabilization scenarios are less frequent but more intense than in simulations of the present. Output data from these simulations is freely available to all interested parties and should prove a useful resource to those interested in studying the impacts of stabilized global warming.

  9. A 2 °C warmer world is not safe for ecosystem services in the European Alps.

    PubMed

    Elkin, Ché; Gutiérrez, Alvaro G; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Manusch, Corina; Temperli, Christian; Rasche, Livia; Bugmann, Harald

    2013-06-01

    Limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2 °C is the objective of international efforts aimed at avoiding dangerous climate impacts. However, the regional response of terrestrial ecosystems and the services that they provide under such a scenario are largely unknown. We focus on mountain forests in the European Alps and evaluate how a range of ecosystem services (ES) are projected to be impacted in a 2 °C warmer world, using four novel regional climate scenarios. We employ three complementary forest models to assess a wide range of ES in two climatically contrasting case study regions. Within each climate scenario we evaluate if and when ES will deviate beyond status quo boundaries that are based on current system variability. Our results suggest that the sensitivity of mountain forest ES to a 2 °C warmer world depends heavily on the current climatic conditions of a region, the strong elevation gradients within a region, and the specific ES in question. Our simulations project that large negative impacts will occur at low and intermediate elevations in initially warm-dry regions, where relatively small climatic shifts result in negative drought-related impacts on forest ES. In contrast, at higher elevations, and in regions that are initially cool-wet, forest ES will be comparatively resistant to a 2 °C warmer world. We also found considerable variation in the vulnerability of forest ES to climate change, with some services such as protection against rockfall and avalanches being sensitive to 2 °C global climate change, but other services such as carbon storage being reasonably resistant. Although our results indicate a heterogeneous response of mountain forest ES to climate change, the projected substantial reduction of some forest ES in dry regions suggests that a 2 °C increase in global mean temperature cannot be seen as a universally 'safe' boundary for the maintenance of mountain forest ES. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  10. Contrasting environmental drivers of adult and juvenile growth in a marine fish: implications for the effects of climate change

    PubMed Central

    Ong, Joyce Jia Lin; Nicholas Rountrey, Adam; Jane Meeuwig, Jessica; John Newman, Stephen; Zinke, Jens; Gregory Meekan, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Many marine fishes have life history strategies that involve ontogenetic changes in the use of coastal habitats. Such ontogenetic shifts may place these species at particular risk from climate change, because the successive environments they inhabit can differ in the type, frequency and severity of changes related to global warming. We used a dendrochronology approach to examine the physical and biological drivers of growth of adult and juvenile mangrove jack (Lutjanus argentimaculatus) from tropical north-western Australia. Juveniles of this species inhabit estuarine environments and adults reside on coastal reefs. The Niño-4 index, a measure of the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) had the highest correlation with adult growth chronologies, with La Niña years (characterised by warmer temperatures and lower salinities) having positive impacts on growth. Atmospheric and oceanographic phenomena operating at ocean-basin scales seem to be important correlates of the processes driving growth in local coastal habitats. Conversely, terrestrial factors influencing precipitation and river runoff were positively correlated with the growth of juveniles in estuaries. Our results show that the impacts of climate change on these two life history stages are likely to be different, with implications for resilience and management of populations. PMID:26052896

  11. Contrasting environmental drivers of adult and juvenile growth in a marine fish: implications for the effects of climate change.

    PubMed

    Ong, Joyce Jia Lin; Rountrey, Adam Nicholas; Meeuwig, Jessica Jane; Newman, Stephen John; Zinke, Jens; Meekan, Mark Gregory

    2015-06-08

    Many marine fishes have life history strategies that involve ontogenetic changes in the use of coastal habitats. Such ontogenetic shifts may place these species at particular risk from climate change, because the successive environments they inhabit can differ in the type, frequency and severity of changes related to global warming. We used a dendrochronology approach to examine the physical and biological drivers of growth of adult and juvenile mangrove jack (Lutjanus argentimaculatus) from tropical north-western Australia. Juveniles of this species inhabit estuarine environments and adults reside on coastal reefs. The Niño-4 index, a measure of the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) had the highest correlation with adult growth chronologies, with La Niña years (characterised by warmer temperatures and lower salinities) having positive impacts on growth. Atmospheric and oceanographic phenomena operating at ocean-basin scales seem to be important correlates of the processes driving growth in local coastal habitats. Conversely, terrestrial factors influencing precipitation and river runoff were positively correlated with the growth of juveniles in estuaries. Our results show that the impacts of climate change on these two life history stages are likely to be different, with implications for resilience and management of populations.

  12. Nitrous oxide emissions are enhanced in a warmer and wetter world.

    PubMed

    Griffis, Timothy J; Chen, Zichong; Baker, John M; Wood, Jeffrey D; Millet, Dylan B; Lee, Xuhui; Venterea, Rodney T; Turner, Peter A

    2017-11-07

    Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) has a global warming potential that is 300 times that of carbon dioxide on a 100-y timescale, and is of major importance for stratospheric ozone depletion. The climate sensitivity of N 2 O emissions is poorly known, which makes it difficult to project how changing fertilizer use and climate will impact radiative forcing and the ozone layer. Analysis of 6 y of hourly N 2 O mixing ratios from a very tall tower within the US Corn Belt-one of the most intensive agricultural regions of the world-combined with inverse modeling, shows large interannual variability in N 2 O emissions (316 Gg N 2 O-N⋅y -1 to 585 Gg N 2 O-N⋅y -1 ). This implies that the regional emission factor is highly sensitive to climate. In the warmest year and spring (2012) of the observational period, the emission factor was 7.5%, nearly double that of previous reports. Indirect emissions associated with runoff and leaching dominated the interannual variability of total emissions. Under current trends in climate and anthropogenic N use, we project a strong positive feedback to warmer and wetter conditions and unabated growth of regional N 2 O emissions that will exceed 600 Gg N 2 O-N⋅y -1 , on average, by 2050. This increasing emission trend in the US Corn Belt may represent a harbinger of intensifying N 2 O emissions from other agricultural regions. Such feedbacks will pose a major challenge to the Paris Agreement, which requires large N 2 O emission mitigation efforts to achieve its goals. Published under the PNAS license.

  13. Nitrous oxide emissions are enhanced in a warmer and wetter world

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffis, Timothy J.; Chen, Zichong; Baker, John M.; Wood, Jeffrey D.; Millet, Dylan B.; Lee, Xuhui; Venterea, Rodney T.; Turner, Peter A.

    2017-11-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) has a global warming potential that is 300 times that of carbon dioxide on a 100-y timescale, and is of major importance for stratospheric ozone depletion. The climate sensitivity of N2O emissions is poorly known, which makes it difficult to project how changing fertilizer use and climate will impact radiative forcing and the ozone layer. Analysis of 6 y of hourly N2O mixing ratios from a very tall tower within the US Corn Belt—one of the most intensive agricultural regions of the world—combined with inverse modeling, shows large interannual variability in N2O emissions (316 Gg N2O-Nṡy‑1 to 585 Gg N2O-Nṡy‑1). This implies that the regional emission factor is highly sensitive to climate. In the warmest year and spring (2012) of the observational period, the emission factor was 7.5%, nearly double that of previous reports. Indirect emissions associated with runoff and leaching dominated the interannual variability of total emissions. Under current trends in climate and anthropogenic N use, we project a strong positive feedback to warmer and wetter conditions and unabated growth of regional N2O emissions that will exceed 600 Gg N2O-Nṡy‑1, on average, by 2050. This increasing emission trend in the US Corn Belt may represent a harbinger of intensifying N2O emissions from other agricultural regions. Such feedbacks will pose a major challenge to the Paris Agreement, which requires large N2O emission mitigation efforts to achieve its goals.

  14. Portable Cooler/Warmers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    Early in the space program, NASA recognized the need to replace bulky coils, compressers, and motors for refrigeration purposes by looking at existing thermoelectric technology. This effort resulted in the development of miniaturized thermoelectric components and packaging to accommodate tight confines of spacecraft. Koolatron's portable electronic refrigerators incorporate this NASA technology. Each of the cooler/warmers employs one or two miniaturized thermoelectric modules. Although each module is only the size of a book of matches, it delivers the cooling power of a 10-pound block of ice. In some models, the cooler can be converted to a warmer. There are no moving parts. The Koolatrons can be plugged into auto cigarette lighters, recreational vehicles, boats or motel outlets.

  15. Impacts of simulated climate change and fungal symbionts on survival and growth of a foundation species in sand dunes.

    PubMed

    Emery, Sarah M; Rudgers, Jennifer A

    2013-12-01

    For many ecosystems, one of the primary avenues of climate impact may be through changes to foundation species, which create habitats and sustain ecosystem services. For plants, microbial symbionts can often act as mutualists under abiotic stress and may mediate foundational plant responses to climate change. We manipulated the presence of endophytes in Ammophila breviligulata, a foundational sand dune species, to evaluate their potential to influence plant responses to climate change. We simulated projected climate change scenarios for temperature and precipitation using a growth chamber experiment. A 5 °C increase in temperature relative to current climate in northern Michigan reduced A. breviligulata survival by 45 %. Root biomass of A. breviligulata, which is critical to dune stabilization, was also strongly reduced by temperature. Plants inoculated with the endophyte had 14 % higher survival than endophyte-free plants. Contrary to our prediction, endophyte symbiosis did not alter the magnitude or direction of the effects of climate manipulations on A. breviligulata survival. However, in the absence of the endophyte, an increase in temperature increased the number of sand grains bound by roots by 80 %, while in symbiotic plants sand adherence did not significantly respond to temperature. Thus, plant-endophyte symbiosis actually negated the benefits in ecosystem function gained under a warmer climate. This study suggests that heat stress related to climate change in the Great Lakes may compromise the ability of A. breviligulata to stabilize dune ecosystems and reduce carbon storage and organic matter build-up in these early-successional systems due to reduced plant survival and root growth.

  16. Carbon assimilation and transfer through kelp forests in the NE Atlantic is diminished under a warmer ocean climate.

    PubMed

    Pessarrodona, Albert; Moore, Pippa J; Sayer, Martin D J; Smale, Dan A

    2018-06-03

    Global climate change is affecting carbon cycling by driving changes in primary productivity and rates of carbon fixation, release and storage within Earth's vegetated systems. There is, however, limited understanding of how carbon flow between donor and recipient habitats will respond to climatic changes. Macroalgal-dominated habitats, such as kelp forests, are gaining recognition as important carbon donors within coastal carbon cycles, yet rates of carbon assimilation and transfer through these habitats are poorly resolved. Here, we investigated the likely impacts of ocean warming on coastal carbon cycling by quantifying rates of carbon assimilation and transfer in Laminaria hyperborea kelp forests-one of the most extensive coastal vegetated habitat types in the NE Atlantic-along a latitudinal temperature gradient. Kelp forests within warm climatic regimes assimilated, on average, more than three times less carbon and donated less than half the amount of particulate carbon compared to those from cold regimes. These patterns were not related to variability in other environmental parameters. Across their wider geographical distribution, plants exhibited reduced sizes toward their warm-water equatorward range edge, further suggesting that carbon flow is reduced under warmer climates. Overall, we estimated that Laminaria hyperborea forests stored ~11.49 Tg C in living biomass and released particulate carbon at a rate of ~5.71 Tg C year -1 . This estimated flow of carbon was markedly higher than reported values for most other marine and terrestrial vegetated habitat types in Europe. Together, our observations suggest that continued warming will diminish the amount of carbon that is assimilated and transported through temperate kelp forests in NE Atlantic, with potential consequences for the coastal carbon cycle. Our findings underline the need to consider climate-driven changes in the capacity of ecosystems to fix and donate carbon when assessing the impacts of

  17. Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Hong; Shiogama, Hideo; Zhang, Yuqing

    2018-03-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia). Less rural populations (-217.7 ± 79.2 million and -216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought) and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.

  18. Warmer and wetter 6000 years ago?

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Beck, W.

    1998-02-13

    The author discusses recent work on thermometer systems which can be used to study past climatic temperatures. The {sup 18}O/{sup 16}O isotope ratio of marine carbonates was originally expected to provide a definitive answer following its introduction. However this ratio has been shown to be a function of temperature and the isotope ratio in seawater, which has been seen to vary on glacial time scales. Recent work to link the {sup 18}O/{sup 16}O isotope ratio with the Sr/Ca ratio measurement in corals has shown promise to factor out some of this variability. One interpretation of recent work with 6000 yearmore » corals is that sea temperatures were 1.2{degrees}C warmer, and the extratropics should have been wetter. The authors discuss other interpretations, and additional work to validate the use of these types of thermometer systems.« less

  19. Baldcypress swamp management and climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Middleton, Beth A.

    2006-01-01

    In the future, climates may become warmer and drier in the southeastern United States; as a result, the range of baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) swamps may shrink. Managers of baldcypress swamps at the southern edge of the range may face special challenges in attempting to preserve these swamp habitats in the future if climates become warmer and drier.

  20. Growth temperature modulates the spatial variability of leaf morphology and chemical elements within crowns of climatically divergent Acer rubrum genotypes.

    PubMed

    Shahba, Mohamed A; Bauerle, William L

    2009-07-01

    Our understanding of leaf acclimation in relation to temperature of fully grown or juvenile tree crowns is mainly based on research involving spatially uncontrolled growth temperature. In this study, we test the hypothesis that leaf morphology and chemical elements are modulated by within-crown growth temperature differences. We ask whether within-species variation can influence acclimation to elevated temperatures. Within-crown temperature dependence of leaf morphology, carbon and nitrogen was examined in two genotypes of Acer rubrum L. (red maple) from different latitudes, where the mean annual temperature varies between 7.2 and 19.4 degrees C. Crown sections were grown in temperature-controlled chambers at three daytime growth temperatures (25, 33 and 38 degrees C). Leaf growth and resource acquisition were measured at regular intervals over long-term (50 days) controlled daytime growth temperatures. We found significant intraspecific variation in temperature dependence of leaf carbon and nitrogen accumulation between genotypes. Additionally, there was evidence that leaf morphology depended on inherited adaptation. Leaf dry matter and nitrogen content decreased as growth temperature was elevated above 25 degrees C in the genotype native to the cooler climate, whereas they remained fairly constant in response to temperature in the genotype native to the warmer climate. Specific leaf area (SLA) was correlated positively to leaf nitrogen content in both genotypes. The SLA and the relative leaf dry matter content (LM), on the other hand, were correlated negatively to leaf thickness. However, intraspecific variation in SLA and LM versus leaf thickness was highly significant. Intraspecific differences in leaf temperature response between climatically divergent genotypes yielded important implications for convergent evolution of leaf adaptation. Comparison of our results with those of previous studies showed that leaf carbon allocation along a vertical temperature

  1. Short-term acclimation to warmer temperatures accelerates leaf carbon exchange processes across plant types.

    PubMed

    Smith, Nicholas G; Dukes, Jeffrey S

    2017-11-01

    While temperature responses of photosynthesis and plant respiration are known to acclimate over time in many species, few studies have been designed to directly compare process-level differences in acclimation capacity among plant types. We assessed short-term (7 day) temperature acclimation of the maximum rate of Rubisco carboxylation (V cmax ), the maximum rate of electron transport (J max ), the maximum rate of phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase carboxylation (V pmax ), and foliar dark respiration (R d ) in 22 plant species that varied in lifespan (annual and perennial), photosynthetic pathway (C 3 and C 4 ), and climate of origin (tropical and nontropical) grown under fertilized, well-watered conditions. In general, acclimation to warmer temperatures increased the rate of each process. The relative increase in different photosynthetic processes varied by plant type, with C 3 species tending to preferentially accelerate CO 2 -limited photosynthetic processes and respiration and C 4 species tending to preferentially accelerate light-limited photosynthetic processes under warmer conditions. R d acclimation to warmer temperatures caused a reduction in temperature sensitivity that resulted in slower rates at high leaf temperatures. R d acclimation was similar across plant types. These results suggest that temperature acclimation of the biochemical processes that underlie plant carbon exchange is common across different plant types, but that acclimation to warmer temperatures tends to have a relatively greater positive effect on the processes most limiting to carbon assimilation, which differ by plant type. The acclimation responses observed here suggest that warmer conditions should lead to increased rates of carbon assimilation when water and nutrients are not limiting. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics.

    PubMed

    Itter, Malcolm S; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Foster, Jane R; Bradford, John B

    2017-06-01

    Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics-changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly

  3. Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Foster, Jane R.; Bradford, John B.

    2017-01-01

    Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly

  4. Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts.

    PubMed

    Doak, Daniel F; Morris, William F

    2010-10-21

    To persist, species are expected to shift their geographical ranges polewards or to higher elevations as the Earth's climate warms. However, although many species' ranges have shifted in historical times, many others have not, or have shifted only at the high-latitude or high-elevation limits, leading to range expansions rather than contractions. Given these idiosyncratic responses to climate warming, and their varied implications for species' vulnerability to climate change, a critical task is to understand why some species have not shifted their ranges, particularly at the equatorial or low-elevation limits, and whether such resilience will last as warming continues. Here we show that compensatory changes in demographic rates are buffering southern populations of two North American tundra plants against the negative effects of a warming climate, slowing their northward range shifts, but that this buffering is unlikely to continue indefinitely. Southern populations of both species showed lower survival and recruitment but higher growth of individual plants, possibly owing to longer, warmer growing seasons. Because of these and other compensatory changes, the population growth rates of southern populations are not at present lower than those of northern ones. However, continued warming may yet prove detrimental, as most demographic rates that improved in moderately warmer years declined in the warmest years, with the potential to drive future population declines. Our results emphasize the need for long-term, range-wide measurement of all population processes to detect demographic compensation and to identify nonlinear responses that may lead to sudden range shifts as climatic tipping points are exceeded.

  5. Climate sensitivity of shrub growth across the tundra biome

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Myers-Smith, Isla H.; Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Beck, Pieter S. A.; Wilmking, Martin; Hallinger, Martin; Blok, Daan; Tape, Ken D.; Rayback, Shelly A.; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Forbes, Bruce C.; Speed, James D. M.; Boulanger-Lapointe, Noémie; Rixen, Christian; Lévesque, Esther; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Baittinger, Claudia; Trant, Andrew J.; Hermanutz, Luise; Collier, Laura Siegwart; Dawes, Melissa A.; Lantz, Trevor C.; Weijers, Stef; Jørgensen, Rasmus Halfdan; Buchwal, Agata; Buras, Allan; Naito, Adam T.; Ravolainen, Virve; Schaepman-Strub, Gabriela; Wheeler, Julia A.; Wipf, Sonja; Guay, Kevin C.; Hik, David S.; Vellend, Mark

    2015-09-01

    Rapid climate warming in the tundra biome has been linked to increasing shrub dominance. Shrub expansion can modify climate by altering surface albedo, energy and water balance, and permafrost, yet the drivers of shrub growth remain poorly understood. Dendroecological data consisting of multi-decadal time series of annual shrub growth provide an underused resource to explore climate-growth relationships. Here, we analyse circumpolar data from 37 Arctic and alpine sites in 9 countries, including 25 species, and ~42,000 annual growth records from 1,821 individuals. Our analyses demonstrate that the sensitivity of shrub growth to climate was: (1) heterogeneous, with European sites showing greater summer temperature sensitivity than North American sites, and (2) higher at sites with greater soil moisture and for taller shrubs (for example, alders and willows) growing at their northern or upper elevational range edges. Across latitude, climate sensitivity of growth was greatest at the boundary between the Low and High Arctic, where permafrost is thawing and most of the global permafrost soil carbon pool is stored. The observed variation in climate-shrub growth relationships should be incorporated into Earth system models to improve future projections of climate change impacts across the tundra biome.

  6. Elevated temperature is more effective than elevated [CO2 ] in exposing genotypic variation in Telopea speciosissima growth plasticity: implications for woody plant populations under climate change.

    PubMed

    Huang, Guomin; Rymer, Paul D; Duan, Honglang; Smith, Renee A; Tissue, David T

    2015-10-01

    Intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity is a critical determinant of plant species capacity to cope with climate change. A long-standing hypothesis states that greater levels of environmental variability will select for genotypes with greater phenotypic plasticity. However, few studies have examined how genotypes of woody species originating from contrasting environments respond to multiple climate change factors. Here, we investigated the main and interactive effects of elevated [CO2 ] (CE ) and elevated temperature (TE ) on growth and physiology of Coastal (warmer, less variable temperature environment) and Upland (cooler, more variable temperature environment) genotypes of an Australian woody species Telopea speciosissima. Both genotypes were positively responsive to CE (35% and 29% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively), but only the Coastal genotype exhibited positive growth responses to TE . We found that the Coastal genotype exhibited greater growth response to TE (47% and 85% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively) when compared with the Upland genotype (no change in dry mass or leaf area). No intraspecific variation in physiological plasticity was detected under CE or TE , and the interactive effects of CE and TE on intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity were also largely absent. Overall, TE was a more effective climate factor than CE in exposing genotypic variation in our woody species. Our results contradict the paradigm that genotypes from more variable climates will exhibit greater phenotypic plasticity in future climate regimes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Complementarity effects on tree growth are contingent on tree size and climatic conditions across Europe

    PubMed Central

    Madrigal-González, Jaime; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Ratcliffe, Sophia; Calatayud, Joaquín; Kändler, Gerald; Lehtonen, Aleksi; Dahlgren, Jonas; Wirth, Christian; Zavala, Miguel A.

    2016-01-01

    Neglecting tree size and stand structure dynamics might bias the interpretation of the diversity-productivity relationship in forests. Here we show evidence that complementarity is contingent on tree size across large-scale climatic gradients in Europe. We compiled growth data of the 14 most dominant tree species in 32,628 permanent plots covering boreal, temperate and Mediterranean forest biomes. Niche complementarity is expected to result in significant growth increments of trees surrounded by a larger proportion of functionally dissimilar neighbours. Functional dissimilarity at the tree level was assessed using four functional types: i.e. broad-leaved deciduous, broad-leaved evergreen, needle-leaved deciduous and needle-leaved evergreen. Using Linear Mixed Models we show that, complementarity effects depend on tree size along an energy availability gradient across Europe. Specifically: (i) complementarity effects at low and intermediate positions of the gradient (coldest-temperate areas) were stronger for small than for large trees; (ii) in contrast, at the upper end of the gradient (warmer regions), complementarity is more widespread in larger than smaller trees, which in turn showed negative growth responses to increased functional dissimilarity. Our findings suggest that the outcome of species mixing on stand productivity might critically depend on individual size distribution structure along gradients of environmental variation. PMID:27571971

  8. Will the warmer temperature bring the more intensity precipitation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yutong, Z., II; Wang, T.

    2017-12-01

    Will the warmer temperature bring the more intensity precipitation?Over the past several decades, changes in climate are amplified over the Tibetan Plateau(TP), with warming trend almost being twice as large as the global average. In sharp contrast, there is a large spatial discrepancy of the variations in precipitation extremes, with increasing trends found in the southern and decreasing trends in central TP. These features motivate are urgent need for an observation-based understanding of how precipitation extremes respond to climate change. Here we examine the relation between precipitation intensity with atmospheric temperature, dew point temperature (Td) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) in Tibet Plateau. Owing to the influences of the westerlies and Indian monsoon on Tibetan climate, the stations can be divided into three sub-regions in TP: the westerlies region (north of 35°N, N = 28), the monsoon region (south of 30°N in TP, N = 31), and the transition region (located between 30°N and 35°N, N = 48). We found that the intensity precipitation does not follow the C-C relation and there is a mix of positive and negative slope. To better understand why different scaling occurs with temperature in district region, using the dew point temperature replace the temperature, although there is significant variability in relative humidity values, at most stations, there appears to be a general increase in relative humidity associated. It is likely that the observed rise in relative humidity can assist in explaining the negative scaling of extreme precipitation at westerlies domain and monsoon domain, with the primary reason why precipitation extremes expected to increase follows from the fact that a warmer atmosphere can "hold" more moisture. This suggests that not only on how much the moisture the atmosphere can hold, but on how much moisture exits in atmosphere. To understand the role of dynamic on extreme precipitation, we repeat the precipitation

  9. Projecting excess emergency department visits and associated costs in Brisbane, Australia, under population growth and climate change scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Toloo, Ghasem (Sam); Hu, Wenbiao; FitzGerald, Gerry; Aitken, Peter; Tong, Shilu

    2015-01-01

    The direct and indirect health effects of increasingly warmer temperatures are likely to further burden the already overcrowded hospital emergency departments (EDs). Using current trends and estimates in conjunction with future population growth and climate change scenarios, we show that the increased number of hot days in the future can have a considerable impact on EDs, adding to their workload and costs. The excess number of visits in 2030 is projected to range between 98–336 and 42–127 for younger and older groups, respectively. The excess costs in 2012–13 prices are estimated to range between AU$51,000–184,000 (0–64) and AU$27,000–84,000 (65+). By 2060, these estimates will increase to 229–2300 and 145–1188 at a cost of between AU$120,000–1,200,000 and AU$96,000–786,000 for the respective age groups. Improvements in climate change mitigation and adaptation measures are likely to generate synergistic health co-benefits and reduce the impact on frontline health services. PMID:26245139

  10. Agroecosystem productivity in a warmer and CO2 enriched atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernacchi, Carl; Köhler, Iris; Ort, Donald; Long, Steven; Clemente, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    A number of in-field manipulative experiments have been conducted that address the response of key ecosystem services of major agronomic species to rising CO2. Global warming, however, is inextricably linked to rising greenhouse gases in general, of which CO2 is the most dominant. Therefore, agroecosystem functioning in future conditions requires an understanding of plant responses to both rising CO2 and increased temperatures. Few in-field manipulative experiments have been conducted that supplement both heating and CO2 above background concentrations. Here, the results of six years of experimentation using a coupled Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) technology with variable output infrared heating arrays are reported. The manipulative experiment increased temperatures (+ 3.5˚ C) and CO2 (+ 200 μmol mol-1) above background levels for on two major agronomic crop species grown throughout the world, Zea mays (maize) and Glycine max (soybean). The first phase of this research addresses the response of plant physiological parameters to growth in elevated CO2 and warmer temperatures for maize and soybean grown in an open-air manipulative experiment. The results show that any increase in ecosystem productivity associated with rising CO2 is either similar or is offset by growth at higher temperatures, inconsistent with the perceived benefits of higher CO2 plus warmer temperatures on agroecosystem productivity. The second phase of this research addresses the opportunity to genetically modify soybean to allow for improved productivity under high CO2 and warmer temperatures by increasing a key photosynthetic carbon reduction cycle enzyme, SPBase. The results from this research demonstrates that manipulation of the photosynthetic pathway can lead to higher productivity in high CO2 and temperature relative to the wild-type control soybean. Overall, this research advances the understanding of the physiological responses of two major crops, and the impact on ecosystem services

  11. Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

    PubMed

    Harsch, Melanie A; McGlone, Matt S; Wilmshurst, Janet M

    2014-01-01

    Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

  12. Climate, Tree Growth, Forest Drought Stress, and Tree Mortality in Forests of Western North America: Long-Term Patterns and Recent Trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, C. D.; Williams, P.

    2012-12-01

    Ongoing climate changes are increasingly affecting the world's forests, particularly including high latitude and high elevation coniferous forests. Although forest growth has improved in some regions due to greater growing season length and warmth (perhaps along with increased atmospheric CO2 or N), large growth declines or increased mortality from droughts or hotter temperatures also are being observed. We present and interpret information on regional variation in climate-tree growth relationships and trends, and on patterns and trends of climate-related forest disturbances, from western North America. From 235 tree-ring chronologies in the Southwest US we show that tree-ring growth records from warmer southwestern sites are more sensitive to temperature than tree-ring growth records from cooler southwestern sites. Assessment of 59 tree-ring records from 11 species in the Cascade Mountains of the Pacific Northwest shows that trees growing in cool places respond positively to increased temperature and trees in warm places respond negatively, implying that trees historically not sensitive to temperature may become sensitive as mean temperatures warm. An analysis of 59 white spruce populations in Alaska supports the hypothesis that warming has caused tree growth to lose sensitivity to cold temperatures. Comparing ring widths to temperature during just the coldest 50% of years during the 20th century, tree growth was sensitive to cold temperatures, and this effect was strongest at the coldest sites; whereas during the warmest 50% of years, trees were not at all sensitive to cold temperatures, even at the cold sites. Drought and vapor pressure deficit are among the variables that emerge as being increasingly important to these Alaska boreal forests as mean temperatures rise. Most recently, from 346 tree-ring chronologies in the Southwest US we establish a tree-ring-based Forest Drought Stress Index (FDSI) for the three most widespread conifer species (Pinus edulis

  13. Winter Climate Limits Subantarctic Low Forest Growth and Establishment

    PubMed Central

    Harsch, Melanie A.; McGlone, Matt S.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.

    2014-01-01

    Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°S, 169°E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  = −5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6°C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally. PMID:24691026

  14. Methane Feedbacks to the Global Climate System in a Warmer World

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dean, Joshua F.; Middelburg, Jack J.; Röckmann, Thomas; Aerts, Rien; Blauw, Luke G.; Egger, Matthias; Jetten, Mike S. M.; de Jong, Anniek E. E.; Meisel, Ove H.; Rasigraf, Olivia; Slomp, Caroline P.; in't Zandt, Michiel H.; Dolman, A. J.

    2018-03-01

    Methane (CH4) is produced in many natural systems that are vulnerable to change under a warming climate, yet current CH4 budgets, as well as future shifts in CH4 emissions, have high uncertainties. Climate change has the potential to increase CH4 emissions from critical systems such as wetlands, marine and freshwater systems, permafrost, and methane hydrates, through shifts in temperature, hydrology, vegetation, landscape disturbance, and sea level rise. Increased CH4 emissions from these systems would in turn induce further climate change, resulting in a positive climate feedback. Here we synthesize biological, geochemical, and physically focused CH4 climate feedback literature, bringing together the key findings of these disciplines. We discuss environment-specific feedback processes, including the microbial, physical, and geochemical interlinkages and the timescales on which they operate, and present the current state of knowledge of CH4 climate feedbacks in the immediate and distant future. The important linkages between microbial activity and climate warming are discussed with the aim to better constrain the sensitivity of the CH4 cycle to future climate predictions. We determine that wetlands will form the majority of the CH4 climate feedback up to 2100. Beyond this timescale, CH4 emissions from marine and freshwater systems and permafrost environments could become more important. Significant CH4 emissions to the atmosphere from the dissociation of methane hydrates are not expected in the near future. Our key findings highlight the importance of quantifying whether CH4 consumption can counterbalance CH4 production under future climate scenarios.

  15. Economic Growth, Climate Change, and Obesity.

    PubMed

    Minos, Dimitrios; Butzlaff, Iris; Demmler, Kathrin Maria; Rischke, Ramona

    2016-12-01

    Human and planetary health as well as economic growth are firmly interlinked and subject to complex interaction effects. In this paper, we provide an overview of interlinkages between economic growth, climate change, and obesity focusing on recent advances in the literature. In addition to empirical findings, we discuss different theoretical frameworks used to conceptualize these complex links and highlight policy options and challenges. We conclude that policies addressing both climate change and obesity simultaneously are particularly promising and often suitable for ensuring sustainable development.

  16. Forest disturbances under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seidl, Rupert; Thom, Dominik; Kautz, Markus; Martin-Benito, Dario; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, Davide; Petr, Michal; Honkaniemi, Juha; Lexer, Manfred J.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Mairota, Paola; Svoboda, Miroslav; Fabrika, Marek; Nagel, Thomas A.; Reyer, Christopher P. O.

    2017-06-01

    Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.

  17. Forest disturbances under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Seidl, Rupert; Thom, Dominik; Kautz, Markus; Martin-Benito, Dario; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, Davide; Petr, Michal; Honkaniemi, Juha; Lexer, Manfred J.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Mairota, Paola; Svoboda, Miroslav; Fabrika, Marek; Nagel, Thomas A.; Reyer, Christopher P. O.

    2017-01-01

    Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests. PMID:28861124

  18. Pan-Tropical Analysis of Climate Effects on Seasonal Tree Growth

    PubMed Central

    Wagner, Fabien; Rossi, Vivien; Aubry-Kientz, Mélaine; Bonal, Damien; Dalitz, Helmut; Gliniars, Robert; Stahl, Clément; Trabucco, Antonio; Hérault, Bruno

    2014-01-01

    Climate models predict a range of changes in tropical forest regions, including increased average temperatures, decreased total precipitation, reduced soil moisture and alterations in seasonal climate variations. These changes are directly related to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily CO2. Assessing seasonal forest growth responses to climate is of utmost importance because woody tissues, produced by photosynthesis from atmospheric CO2, water and light, constitute the main component of carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In this paper, we combine intra-annual tree growth measurements from published tree growth data and the corresponding monthly climate data for 25 pan-tropical forest sites. This meta-analysis is designed to find the shared climate drivers of tree growth and their relative importance across pan-tropical forests in order to improve carbon uptake models in a global change context. Tree growth reveals significant intra-annual seasonality at seasonally dry sites or in wet tropical forests. Of the overall variation in tree growth, 28.7% was explained by the site effect, i.e. the tree growth average per site. The best predictive model included four climate variables: precipitation, solar radiation (estimated with extrasolar radiation reaching the atmosphere), temperature amplitude and relative soil water content. This model explained more than 50% of the tree growth variations across tropical forests. Precipitation and solar radiation are the main seasonal drivers of tree growth, causing 19.8% and 16.3% of the tree growth variations. Both have a significant positive association with tree growth. These findings suggest that forest productivity due to tropical tree growth will be reduced in the future if climate extremes, such as droughts, become more frequent. PMID:24670981

  19. Pan-tropical analysis of climate effects on seasonal tree growth.

    PubMed

    Wagner, Fabien; Rossi, Vivien; Aubry-Kientz, Mélaine; Bonal, Damien; Dalitz, Helmut; Gliniars, Robert; Stahl, Clément; Trabucco, Antonio; Hérault, Bruno

    2014-01-01

    Climate models predict a range of changes in tropical forest regions, including increased average temperatures, decreased total precipitation, reduced soil moisture and alterations in seasonal climate variations. These changes are directly related to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily CO2. Assessing seasonal forest growth responses to climate is of utmost importance because woody tissues, produced by photosynthesis from atmospheric CO2, water and light, constitute the main component of carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In this paper, we combine intra-annual tree growth measurements from published tree growth data and the corresponding monthly climate data for 25 pan-tropical forest sites. This meta-analysis is designed to find the shared climate drivers of tree growth and their relative importance across pan-tropical forests in order to improve carbon uptake models in a global change context. Tree growth reveals significant intra-annual seasonality at seasonally dry sites or in wet tropical forests. Of the overall variation in tree growth, 28.7% was explained by the site effect, i.e. the tree growth average per site. The best predictive model included four climate variables: precipitation, solar radiation (estimated with extrasolar radiation reaching the atmosphere), temperature amplitude and relative soil water content. This model explained more than 50% of the tree growth variations across tropical forests. Precipitation and solar radiation are the main seasonal drivers of tree growth, causing 19.8% and 16.3% of the tree growth variations. Both have a significant positive association with tree growth. These findings suggest that forest productivity due to tropical tree growth will be reduced in the future if climate extremes, such as droughts, become more frequent.

  20. Douglas-fir displays a range of growth responses to ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) growth in the Pacific Northwest is affected by climatic, edaphic factors and Swiss needle cast (SNC) disease. We examine Douglas-fir growth responses to temperature, dewpoint deficit (DPD), soil moisture, and SNC using time series intervention analysis of intra-annual tree-ring width data collected at nine forest stands in western Oregon, USA. The effects of temperature and SNC were similar in importance on tree growth at all sites. Previous-year DPD during the annual drought period was a key factor limiting growth regionally. Winter temperature was more important at high elevation cool sites, whereas summer temperature was more important at warm and dry sites. Growth rate increased with summer temperature to an optimum (Topt) then decreased at higher temperatures. At drier sites, temperature and water affected growth interactively such that Topt decreased with decreasing summer soil moisture. With climate change, growth rates increased at high elevation sites and declined at mid-elevation inland sites since ~1990. Growth response to climate is masked by SNC regionally. We conclude that as temperature rises and precipitation patterns shift towards wetter winters and drier summers, Douglas-fir will experience greater temperature and water stress and an increase in severity of SNC. By the end of the 21st century, climate models predict hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters in the Pac

  1. The Golden Canopies (Infant Radiant Warmer)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    The cradle warmer is based on technology in heated transparent materials developed by Sierracin Corporation, Sylmar, California he original application was in heated faceplates for the pressure suit heated faceplates worn by pilots of an Air Force/NASA reconnaissance and weather research plane. Later, Sierracin advanced the technology for other applications, among them the cockpit windows of the NASA X-15 supersonic research vehicle and the helmet faceplates of Apollo astronauts. Adapting the technology to hospital needs, Sierracin teamed with Cavitron Corporation, Anaheim, California, which produces the cradle warmer and two other systems employing Sierracin's electrically-heated transparencies. Working to combat the infant mortality rate, hospitals are continually upgrading delivery room and nursery care techniques. Many have special procedures and equipment to protect infants during the "period of apprehension," the critical six to 12 hours after delivery. One such item of equipment is an aerospace spinoff called the Infant Radiant Warmer, a "golden canopy" which provides uniform, controlled warmth to the infant's cradle. Warmth is vitally important to all newborns, particularly premature babies; they lose heat more rapidly than adults because they have greater surface area in comparison with body mass.

  2. [Quality Improvement Project: Increasing the Rate of Proper Use of Infant Transferring Warmers].

    PubMed

    Huang, Hsiu-Yu; Fann, Guei-Ling

    2015-10-01

    Infant-transferring warmers provide a warm environment and emergency care facilities such ventilators for high-risk infants during transport. Accurate use of this warmer has been demonstrated to reduce rates of neonatal complications and increase rates of survival. This project found that, despite the complaints of nurses that warmers occasionally malfunctioned during the transfer process, warmer functions nearly always tested normal after use. Therefore, the researchers surveyed ward nurses to better understand the underlying reasons for these complaints. Results found that only 68.4% of those surveyed operated the warmer correctly. The reasons for improper use were analyzed and categorized as: Nurse-related factors - lack of warmer operating knowledge and experience in the clinic; System-related factors - lack of a standard operating procedure (SOP) and monitor/audit practices and an incomplete training protocol; Equipment-related factors - lack of an equipment preparation SOP and difficulties in setting the ventilator properly. The purpose of this project was to achieve a 100% rate of proper warmer use among nurses. Through continuous clinical education, we created a standard operating procedure for warmer operation, created a video and poster for warmer users, simplified the equipment preparation SOP, and periodically monitored and checked results. After the intervention, 100% of the nurses were able to use the warmers correctly. Additionally, the rate of satisfaction for nursing-warmer use among the participating nurses increased from 51.4% to 80.6%. This project effectively increased the rate for correctly using transferring warmers among participating nurses and improved the quality of medical care.

  3. Climate change likely to favor shift toward warmer climate states of the Pliocene and Eocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burke, K. D.; Williams, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the climate system is moving toward a state without precedent in the historical record. Various past climate states have been proposed as potential analogues or model systems for the coming decades, including the early to middle Holocene, the last interglacial, the middle Pliocene, and the early Eocene. However, until now, such comparisons have been qualitative. To compare these time periods to the projected climate states for the 21st and 22nd centuries, we conduct a climate similarity analysis using the standardized Euclidean distance metric (SED) and seasonal means of surface air temperature and precipitation. We make this future-to-past comparison using 30-year mean climatologies, for every decade between 2020 and 2280 AD (27 total comparisons). The list of past earth system states includes the historical period (1940-1970 AD), a pre-industrial control (ca. 1850), the middle Holocene (ca. 6 ka), the last glacial maximum (ca. 21 ka), the last interglacial (ca. 125 ka), the middle Pliocene (ca. 3 Ma), and the early Eocene (ca. 50-55 Ma). To reduce uncertainties resulting from choice of earth system model, analyses are based on simulations from three earth system models (HadCM, CCSM, NASA/GISS Model-E), using in part experiments from PMIP2, PMIP3/CMIP5, EoMIP, and PlioMIP. Results are presented for two representative concentration pathways (RCP's 4.5, 8.5). By 2050 AD, the most common past climate analogue is sourced from the Pliocene for RCP 8.5, while by 2190 AD, the Eocene becomes the source of the most common past climate analogue. For RCP 4.5, in which radiative forcings stabilize this century, the Pliocene becomes the most important past climate analogue by 2100 AD. Low latitude climates are the first to most closely resemble these past earth warm periods. The mid-latitudes then follow this pattern by the end of the 22nd century. Although no past state of the earth system is a perfect analogue

  4. Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

    PubMed

    Liao, Wei; Elison Timm, Oliver; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T; LaPointe, Dennis A; Samuel, Michael D

    2015-12-01

    Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Liao, Wei; Timm, Oliver Elison; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

    2015-01-01

    Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

  6. Evidence for lower plasticity in CTMAX at warmer developmental temperatures.

    PubMed

    Kellermann, Vanessa; Sgrò, Carla M

    2018-06-07

    Understanding the capacity for different species to reduce their susceptibility to climate change via phenotypic plasticity is essential for accurately predicting species extinction risk. The climatic variability hypothesis suggests that spatial and temporal variation in climatic variables should select for more plastic phenotypes. However, empirical support for this hypothesis is limited. Here, we examine the capacity for ten Drosophila species to increase their critical thermal maxima (CT MAX ) through developmental acclimation and/or adult heat hardening. Using four fluctuating developmental temperature regimes, ranging from 13 to 33 °C, we find that most species can increase their CT MAX via developmental acclimation and adult hardening, but found no relationship between climatic variables and absolute measures of plasticity. However, when plasticity was dissected across developmental temperatures, a positive association between plasticity and one measure of climatic variability (temperature seasonality) was found when development took place between 26 and 28 °C, whereas a negative relationship was found when development took place between 20 and 23 °C. In addition, a decline in CT MAX and egg-to-adult viability, a proxy for fitness, was observed in tropical species at the warmer developmental temperatures (26-28 °C); this suggests that tropical species may be at even greater risk from climate change than currently predicted. The combined effects of developmental acclimation and adult hardening on CT MAX were small, contributing to a <0.60 °C shift in CT MAX . Although small shifts in CT MAX may increase population persistence in the shorter term, the degree to which they can contribute to meaningful responses in the long term is unclear. © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  7. A Warmer Atmosphere on Mars near the Noachian-Hesperian Boundary: Evidence from Basal Melting of the South Polar Ice Cap (Dorsa Argentea Formation)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fastook, J. L.; Head, J. W.; Marchant, D. R.; Forget, F.; Madeleine, J.-B.

    2012-05-01

    Eskers in the Dorsa Argentea Formation imply the presence of an ice sheet with a wet bed. With an ice sheet model, we examine a range of geothermal heat fluxes and warmer climates to determine what conditions could produce such an ice sheet.

  8. Testing a growth efficiency hypothesis with continental-scale phenological variations of common and cloned plants.

    PubMed

    Liang, Liang; Schwartz, Mark D

    2014-10-01

    Variation in the timing of plant phenology caused by phenotypic plasticity is a sensitive measure of how organisms respond to weather and climate variability. Although continental-scale gradients in climate and consequential patterns in plant phenology are well recognized, the contribution of underlying genotypic difference to the geography of phenology is less well understood. We hypothesize that different temperate plant genotypes require varying amount of heat energy for resuming annual growth and reproduction as a result of adaptation and other ecological and evolutionary processes along climatic gradients. In particular, at least for some species, the growing degree days (GDD) needed to trigger the same spring phenology events (e.g., budburst and flower bloom) may be less for individuals originated from colder climates than those from warmer climates. This variable intrinsic heat energy requirement in plants can be characterized by the term growth efficiency and is quantitatively reflected in the timing of phenophases-earlier timing indicates higher efficiency (i.e., less heat energy needed to trigger phenophase transitions) and vice versa compared to a standard reference (i.e., either a uniform climate or a uniform genotype). In this study, we tested our hypothesis by comparing variations of budburst and bloom timing of two widely documented plants from the USA National Phenology Network (i.e., red maple-Acer rubrum and forsythia-Forsythia spp.) with cloned indicator plants (lilac-Syringa x chinensis 'Red Rothomagensis') at multiple eastern US sites. Our results indicate that across the accumulated temperature gradient, the two non-clonal plants showed significantly more gradual changes than the cloned plants, manifested by earlier phenology in colder climates and later phenology in warmer climates relative to the baseline clone phenological response. This finding provides initial evidence supporting the growth efficiency hypothesis, and suggests more work is

  9. Tree growth and climate in the Pacific Northwest, North America: a broad-scale analysis of changing growth environments

    Treesearch

    Whitney L. Albright; David L. Peterson

    2013-01-01

    Climate change in the 21st century will affect tree growth in the Pacific Northwest region of North America, although complex climate–growth relationships make it difficult to identify how radial growth will respond across different species distributions. We used a novel method to examine potential growth responses to climate change at a broad geographical scale with a...

  10. Competition alters tree growth responses to climate at individual and stand scales

    Treesearch

    Kevin Ford; Ian K. Breckheimer; Jerry F. Franklin; James A. Freund; Steve J. Kroiss; Andrew J. Larson; Elinore J. Theobald; Janneke. HilleRisLambers

    2015-01-01

    Understanding how climate affects tree growth is essential for assessing climate change impacts on forests, but is complicated by the effects of competition, which strongly influences growth and could alter how forests respond to climate change. We characterized the joint effects of climate and competition on diameter growth in the mountain forests of Mount Rainier...

  11. Differentiating drought legacy effects on vegetation growth over the temperate Northern Hemisphere.

    PubMed

    Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Li, Xiaoyan; Ciais, Philippe; Babst, Flurin; Guo, Weichao; Zhang, Cicheng; Magliulo, Vincenzo; Pavelka, Marian; Liu, Shaomin; Huang, Yongmei; Wang, Pei; Shi, Chunming; Ma, Yujun

    2018-01-01

    In view of future changes in climate, it is important to better understand how different plant functional groups (PFGs) respond to warmer and drier conditions, particularly in temperate regions where an increase in both the frequency and severity of drought is expected. The patterns and mechanisms of immediate and delayed impacts of extreme drought on vegetation growth remain poorly quantified. Using satellite measurements of vegetation greenness, in-situ tree-ring records, eddy-covariance CO 2 and water flux measurements, and meta-analyses of source water of plant use among PFGs, we show that drought legacy effects on vegetation growth differ markedly between forests, shrubs and grass across diverse bioclimatic conditions over the temperate Northern Hemisphere. Deep-rooted forests exhibit a drought legacy response with reduced growth during up to 4 years after an extreme drought, whereas shrubs and grass have drought legacy effects of approximately 2 years and 1 year, respectively. Statistical analyses partly attribute the differences in drought legacy effects among PFGs to plant eco-hydrological properties (related to traits), including plant water use and hydraulic responses. These results can be used to improve the representation of drought response of different PFGs in land surface models, and assess their biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks in response to a warmer and drier climate. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. A third option for climate policy within potential limits to growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.

    2017-02-01

    Climate change has revived debates around the concept of limits to growth, 45 years after it was first proposed. Many citizens, scientists and politicians fear that stringent climate policy will harm economic growth. Some are anti-growth, whereas others believe green growth is compatible with a transition to a low-carbon economy. As the window to curb warming at 2 °C closes, this debate will intensify. This Review critically reflects on both positions, providing an overview of existing literature on the growth versus climate debate. Both positions are argued here to jeopardize environmental or social goals. A third position, labelled an 'agrowth' strategy, is proposed to depolarize the debate and reduce resistance to climate policies.

  13. Will seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) quality change in a warmer ocean?

    PubMed

    Barbosa, Vera; Maulvault, Ana Luísa; Alves, Ricardo N; Anacleto, Patrícia; Pousão-Ferreira, Pedro; Carvalho, Maria Luísa; Nunes, Maria Leonor; Rosa, Rui; Marques, António

    2017-07-01

    The impacts of climate change on seafood quality, safety and human health are still unknown. The present study investigated the effect of warming on fatty acids and elements content in two tissues (muscle and liver) of the relevant commercial seabass species (Dicentrarchus labrax). After exposing fish to increased seawater temperature for a period of 60days, higher saturated fatty acid (SFA) levels were observed in fish muscle (2.16% increase); whereas lower SFA levels were observed in fish liver (5.42% decrease). On the other hand, monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) contents decreased in both muscle (1.77% and 0.39%, respectively) and liver (10.54% and 8.11%, respectively) of fish subjected to warmer conditions. Additionally, warming promoted changes in fish elemental profiles, leading to significantly higher levels of Cl in the muscle and lower levels of Rb in the liver. Overall, data showed that fatty acids and elemental contents were affected by temperature, though representing small implications to human health. Moreover, this preliminary study highlights the importance of conducting further seafood risk-benefit assessments under climate change contexts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Climate Effects on Corn Yield in Missouri(.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Qi; Buyanovsky, Gregory

    2003-11-01

    Understanding climate effects on crop yield has been a continuous endeavor aiming at improving farming technology and management strategy, minimizing negative climate effects, and maximizing positive climate effects on yield. Many studies have examined climate effects on corn yield in different regions of the United States. However, most of those studies used yield and climate records that were shorter than 10 years and were for different years and localities. Although results of those studies showed various influences of climate on corn yield, they could be time specific and have been difficult to use for deriving a comprehensive understanding of climate effects on corn yield. In this study, climate effects on corn yield in central Missouri are examined using unique long-term (1895 1998) datasets of both corn yield and climate. Major results show that the climate effects on corn yield can only be explained by within-season variations in rainfall and temperature and cannot be distinguished by average growing-season conditions. Moreover, the growing-season distributions of rainfall and temperature for high-yield years are characterized by less rainfall and warmer temperature in the planting period, a rapid increase in rainfall, and more rainfall and warmer temperatures during germination and emergence. More rainfall and cooler-than-average temperatures are key features in the anthesis and kernel-filling periods from June through August, followed by less rainfall and warmer temperatures during the September and early October ripening time. Opposite variations in rainfall and temperature in the growing season correspond to low yield. Potential applications of these results in understanding how climate change may affect corn yield in the region also are discussed.

  15. Pinus taeda forest growth predictions in the 21st century vary with site mean annual temperature and site quality.

    PubMed

    Gonzalez-Benecke, Carlos A; Teskey, Robert O; Dinon-Aldridge, Heather; Martin, Timothy A

    2017-11-01

    Climate projections from 20 downscaled global climate models (GCMs) were used with the 3-PG model to predict the future productivity and water use of planted loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) growing across the southeastern United States. Predictions were made using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. These represent scenarios in which total radiative forcing stabilizes before 2100 (RCP 4.5) or continues increasing throughout the century (RCP 8.5). Thirty-six sites evenly distributed across the native range of the species were used in the analysis. These sites represent a range in current mean annual temperature (14.9-21.6°C) and precipitation (1,120-1,680 mm/year). The site index of each site, which is a measure of growth potential, was varied to represent different levels of management. The 3-PG model predicted that aboveground biomass growth and net primary productivity will increase by 10%-40% in many parts of the region in the future. At cooler sites, the relative growth increase was greater than at warmer sites. By running the model with the baseline [CO 2 ] or the anticipated elevated [CO 2 ], the effect of CO 2 on growth was separated from that of other climate factors. The growth increase at warmer sites was due almost entirely to elevated [CO 2 ]. The growth increase at cooler sites was due to a combination of elevated [CO 2 ] and increased air temperature. Low site index stands had a greater relative increase in growth under the climate change scenarios than those with a high site index. Water use increased in proportion to increases in leaf area and productivity but precipitation was still adequate, based on the downscaled GCM climate projections. We conclude that an increase in productivity can be expected for a large majority of the planted loblolly pine stands in the southeastern United States during this century. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Was the Eemian warmer than the Holocene? Indications from high- and low-altitude speleothems in the Italian Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnston, V. E.; Borsato, A.; Frisia, S.; Spoetl, C.; Edwards, R.; Cheng, H.; Hellstrom, J.; Eggins, S. M.

    2012-12-01

    The Eemian was the most recent period, prior to the Holocene, where conditions were similar to the present. This permits its use for comparison with recent times but without anthropogenic influence. However, the natural similarity between these two periods must be questioned, and therefore, the suitability of using Eemian climate as a reference for modern times. Present-day speleothem growth in the high altitude Cesere Battisti (CB) cave (1880 m a.s.l.) is scarce and limited to only a few, thin calcite crusts and moonmilk deposits, despite ample time for soil development to occur. By contrast, during the Eemian, flowstone deposits and large stalagmites filled parts of the cave. Dating indicates that these deposits commenced growth shortly after deglaciation, with the growth phase corresponding well with the step to negative δ18O values seen at Soreq Cave (Bar-Matthews et al., 2003, Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, 67, 3181-3199). δ13C values of Eemian speleothems are more negative than present-day precipitates indicating that either the Eemian soil was better developed or there was less in-cave fractionation, both in agreement with favorable speleothem growth conditions and corresponding with greater mass of calcite during the Eemian. The situation is similar at the lower altitude (370 m a.s.l.) Bigonda Cave (BG) that presently hosts stalagmites and stalactites in parts of the cave, but during the Eemian thick flowstones covered large sections of cave passage. High resolution stable isotope and trace element data on two corresponding flowstones from BG cave indicate that flowstone growth commenced rapidly, even during the deglacial phase, with a negative meltwater spike in δ18O and Sr concentrations initially decreasing from the progressive weathering of glacial till in the infiltration area. It is therefore possible that the Eemian climate in the Italian Alps was warmer and more humid than the Holocene, promoting stronger weathering and faster soil development

  17. Geographical differences in maternal basking behaviour and offspring growth rate in a climatically widespread viviparous reptile.

    PubMed

    Cadby, Chloé D; Jones, Susan M; Wapstra, Erik

    2014-04-01

    In reptiles, the thermal environment during embryonic development affects offspring phenotypic traits and potentially offspring fitness. In viviparous species, mothers can potentially manipulate the embryonic thermal environment through their basking behaviour and, thus, may be able to manipulate offspring phenotype and increase offspring fitness. One way in which mothers can maximise offspring phenotype (and thus potentially affect offspring fitness) is by fine-tuning their basking behaviour to the environment in order to buffer the embryo from deleterious developmental temperatures. In widespread species, it is unclear whether populations that have evolved under different climatic conditions will exhibit different maternal behaviours and/or thermal effects on offspring phenotype. To test this, we provided extended or reduced basking opportunity to gravid spotted skinks (Niveoscincus ocellatus) and their offspring from two populations at the climatic extremes of the species' distribution. Gravid females fine-tuned their basking behaviour to the basking opportunity, which allowed them to buffer their embryos from potentially negative thermal effects. This fine-tuning of female basking behaviour appears to have led to the expression of geographical differences in basking behaviour, with females from the cold alpine regions being more opportunistic in their basking behaviour than females from the warmer regions. However, those differences in maternal behaviour did not preclude the evolution of geographic differences in thermal effects: offspring growth varied between populations, potentially suggesting local adaptation to basking conditions. Our results demonstrate that maternal effects and phenotypic plasticity can play a significant role in allowing species to cope in changing environmental conditions, which is particularly relevant in the context of climate change.

  18. Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans

    2017-12-01

    Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees (Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.

  19. Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans

    2018-05-01

    Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees ( Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.

  20. Urban climate modifies tree growth in Berlin.

    PubMed

    Dahlhausen, Jens; Rötzer, Thomas; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Pretzsch, Hans

    2018-05-01

    Climate, e.g., air temperature and precipitation, differs strongly between urban and peripheral areas, which causes diverse life conditions for trees. In order to compare tree growth, we sampled in total 252 small-leaved lime trees (Tilia cordata Mill) in the city of Berlin along a gradient from the city center to the surroundings. By means of increment cores, we are able to trace back their growth for the last 50 to 100 years. A general growth trend can be shown by comparing recent basal area growth with estimates from extrapolating a growth function that had been fitted with growth data from earlier years. Estimating a linear model, we show that air temperature and precipitation significantly influence tree growth within the last 20 years. Under consideration of housing density, the results reveal that higher air temperature and less precipitation led to higher growth rates in high-dense areas, but not in low-dense areas. In addition, our data reveal a significantly higher variance of the ring width index in areas with medium housing density compared to low housing density, but no temporal trend. Transferring the results to forest stands, climate change is expected to lead to higher tree growth rates.

  1. Competition amplifies drought stress in forests across broad climatic and compositional gradients

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gleason, Kelly; Bradford, John B.; Bottero, Alessandra; D'Amato, Tony; Fraver, Shawn; Palik, Brian J.; Battaglia, Michael; Iverson, Louis R.; Kenefic, Laura; Kern, Christel C.

    2017-01-01

    Forests around the world are experiencing increasingly severe droughts and elevated competitive intensity due to increased tree density. However, the influence of interactions between drought and competition on forest growth remains poorly understood. Using a unique dataset of stand-scale dendrochronology sampled from 6405 trees, we quantified how annual growth of entire tree populations responds to drought and competition in eight, long-term (multi-decadal), experiments with replicated levels of density (e.g., competitive intensity) arrayed across a broad climatic and compositional gradient. Forest growth (cumulative individual tree growth within a stand) declined during drought, especially during more severe drought in drier climates. Forest growth declines were exacerbated by high density at all sites but one, particularly during periods of more severe drought. Surprisingly, the influence of forest density was persistent overall, but these density impacts were greater in the humid sites than in more arid sites. Significant density impacts occurred during periods of more extreme drought, and during warmer temperatures in the semi-arid sites but during periods of cooler temperatures in the humid sites. Because competition has a consistent influence over growth response to drought, maintaining forests at lower density may enhance resilience to drought in all climates.

  2. Individualistic and Time-Varying Tree-Ring Growth to Climate Sensitivity

    PubMed Central

    Carrer, Marco

    2011-01-01

    The development of dendrochronological time series in order to analyze climate-growth relationships usually involves first a rigorous selection of trees and then the computation of the mean tree-growth measurement series. This study suggests a change in the perspective, passing from an analysis of climate-growth relationships that typically focuses on the mean response of a species to investigating the whole range of individual responses among sample trees. Results highlight that this new approach, tested on a larch and stone pine tree-ring dataset, outperforms, in terms of information obtained, the classical one, with significant improvements regarding the strength, distribution and time-variability of the individual tree-ring growth response to climate. Moreover, a significant change over time of the tree sensitivity to climatic variability has been detected. Accordingly, the best-responder trees at any one time may not always have been the best-responders and may not continue to be so. With minor adjustments to current dendroecological protocol and adopting an individualistic approach, we can improve the quality and reliability of the ecological inferences derived from the climate-growth relationships. PMID:21829523

  3. The effect of climate on the phenology, acorn crop and radial increment of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) in the middle Volga region, Tatarstan, Russia.

    PubMed

    Askeyev, O V; Tischin, D; Sparks, T H; Askeyev, I V

    2005-03-01

    Our data, collected in the extreme east of Europe, show that a significant biological effect of climate change has been experienced even in territories where temperature increase has been the lowest. This study documents the climatic response of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) growing near its north-eastern limits in Europe. It demonstrates the potential of oak trees in old-growth forest to act as proxy climate indicators. Many factors may influence the temporal stability of the growth-climate, acorn crop-climate and first leafing-climate relationships. Climate data, climatic fluctuations, reproduction, genetics and tree-age may relate to this instability. Our results stress that an increase in climate variability or climatic warming resulting from warmer winters or summers could affect the oak population in eastern Europe in a similar way to that in western Europe. These findings, from remnants of oak forest in the middle Volga region of Russia, allow a further understanding of how species could be affected by future climates.

  4. Growth-climate relationships across topographic gradients in the northern Great Lakes

    Treesearch

    S.F. Dymond; A.W. D' Amato; Randy Kolka; P.V. Bolstad; Stephen Sebestyen; J.B. Bradford

    2016-01-01

    Climatic conditions exert important control over the growth, productivity, and distribution of forests, and characterizing these relationships is essential for understanding how forest ecosystems will respond to climate change. We used dendrochronological methods to develop climate–growth relationships for two dominant species, Populus tremuloides...

  5. Geoengineering: Direct Mitigation of Climate Warming

    EPA Science Inventory

    For Frank Princiotta’s book, Global Climate Change—The Technology Challenge With the concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) rising to levels unprecedented in the current glacial epoch, the earth’s climate system appears to be rapidly shifting into a warmer regime....

  6. Interactive effects of ozone and climate on water use, soil moisture content and streamflow in a southern Appalachian forest in the USA

    Treesearch

    S.B. McLaughlin; S.D. Wullschleger; G. Sun; M. Nosal

    2007-01-01

    Documentation of the degree and direction of effects of ozone on transpiration of canopies of mature forest trees is critically needed to model ozone effects on forest water use and growth in a warmer future climate.Patterns of sap flow in stems and soil moisture in the rooting zones of mature trees, coupled with late-season...

  7. Regional patterns of increasing Swiss needle cast impacts on Douglas-fir growth with warming temperatures.

    PubMed

    Lee, E Henry; Beedlow, Peter A; Waschmann, Ronald S; Tingey, David T; Cline, Steven; Bollman, Michael; Wickham, Charlotte; Carlile, Cailie

    2017-12-01

    The fungal pathogen, Phaeocryptopus gaeumannii , causing Swiss needle cast (SNC) occurs wherever Douglas-fir is found but disease damage is believed to be limited in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) to the Coast Range of Oregon and Washington (Hansen et al., Plant Disease , 2000, 84 , 773; Rosso & Hansen, Phytopathology , 2003, 93 , 790; Shaw, et al., Journal of Forestry , 2011, 109 , 109). However, knowledge remains limited on the history and spatial distribution of SNC impacts in the PNW. We reconstructed the history of SNC impacts on mature Douglas-fir trees based on tree-ring width chronologies from western Oregon. Our findings show that SNC impacts on growth occur wherever Douglas-fir is found and is not limited to the coastal fog zone. The spatiotemporal patterns of growth impact from SNC disease were synchronous across the region, displayed periodicities of 12-40 years, and strongly correlated with winter and summer temperatures and summer precipitation. The primary climatic factor limiting pathogen dynamics varied spatially by location, topography, and elevation. SNC impacts were least severe in the first half of the 20th century when climatic conditions during the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (1924-1945) were less conducive to pathogen development. At low- to mid-elevations, SNC impacts were most severe in 1984-1986 following several decades of warmer winters and cooler, wetter summers including a high summer precipitation anomaly in 1983. At high elevations on the west slope of the Cascade Range, SNC impacts peaked several years later and were the greatest in the 1990s, a period of warmer winter temperatures. Climate change is predicted to result in warmer winters and will likely continue to increase SNC severity at higher elevations, north along the coast from northern Oregon to British Columbia, and inland where low winter temperatures currently limit growth of the pathogen. Our findings indicate that SNC may become a significant

  8. Snowmelt sensitivity to warmer temperatures: a field-validated model analysis, southern Sierra Nevada, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Musselman, K. N.; Molotch, N. P.; Margulis, S. A.

    2014-12-01

    We present model simulations of climate change impacts on snowmelt processes over a 1600 km2 area in the southern Sierra Nevada, including western Sequoia National Park. The domain spans a 3600 m elevation gradient and ecosystems ranging from semi-arid grasslands to giant sequoia groves to alpine tundra. Three reference years were evaluated: a moderately dry snow season (23% below average SWE), an average snow season (7% above average SWE), and a moderately wet snow season (54% above average SWE). The Alpine3D model was run for the reference years and results were evaluated against data from a multi-scale measurement campaign that included repeated manual snow courses and basin-scale snow surveys, dozens of automated snow depth sensors, and automated SWE stations. Compared to automated measurements, the model represented the date of snow disappearance within two days. Compared to manual measurements, model SWE RMSE values for the average and wet snow seasons were highly correlated (R2=0.89 and R2=0.73) with the distance of SWE measurements from the nearest precipitation gauge used to force the model; no significant correlation was found with elevation. The results suggest that Alpine3D is highly accurate during the melt season and that precipitation uncertainty may critically limit snow model accuracy. The air temperature measured at 19 regional stations for the three reference years was modified by +1°C to +6°C to simulate the impact of warmer temperatures on snowmelt dynamics over the 3600 m elevation gradient. For all years, progressively warmer temperatures caused the seasonal SWE centroid to shift earlier and higher in elevation. At forested middle elevations, 70 - 80% of the present-day snowpack volume is lost in a +2°C scenario; 30 - 40% of that change is a result of precipitation phase shift and the remainder is due to enhanced melt. At all elevations, spring and fall snowpack was most sensitive to warmer temperatures; mid-winter sensitivity was least

  9. Reduced Urban Heat Island intensity under warmer conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scott, Anna A.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Zaitchik, Ben F.

    2018-06-01

    The Urban Heat Island (UHI), the tendency for urban areas to be hotter than rural regions, represents a significant health concern in summer as urban populations are exposed to elevated temperatures. A number of studies suggest that the UHI increases during warmer conditions, however there has been no investigation of this for a large ensemble of cities. Here we compare urban and rural temperatures in 54 US cities for 2000–2015 and show that the intensity of the Urban Heat Island, measured here as the differences in daily-minimum or daily-maximum temperatures between urban and rural stations or ΔT, in fact tends to decrease with increasing temperature in most cities (38/54). This holds when investigating daily variability, heat extremes, and variability across climate zones and is primarily driven by changes in rural areas. We relate this change to large-scale or synoptic weather conditions, and find that the lowest ΔT nights occur during moist weather conditions. We also find that warming cities have not experienced an increasing Urban Heat Island effect.

  10. [Allergic disease--pollen allergy and climate change].

    PubMed

    Sommer, Janne; Plaschke, Peter; Poulsen, Lars K

    2009-10-26

    Pollen allergy currently affects a fifth of the population. A warmer climate will lead to a longer pollen season and more days with high pollen counts. In addition, a warmer climate increases the risk of proliferation of new plants with well-known allergenic pollens like ragweed, plane tree and wall pellitory, which have not previously caused allergy in Denmark. The consequences will be more people with hay fever and pollen asthma, longer allergy seasons and an increase in the severity of symptoms, disease-related costs and demands on health care for diagnosis and treatment of more complex allergies.

  11. Climate and population density drive changes in cod body size throughout a century on the Norwegian coast

    PubMed Central

    Rogers, Lauren A.; Stige, Leif C.; Olsen, Esben M.; Knutsen, Halvor; Chan, Kung-Sik; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding how populations respond to changes in climate requires long-term, high-quality datasets, which are rare for marine systems. We estimated the effects of climate warming on cod lengths and length variability using a unique 91-y time series of more than 100,000 individual juvenile cod lengths from surveys that began in 1919 along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. Using linear mixed-effects models, we accounted for spatial population structure and the nested structure of the survey data to reveal opposite effects of spring and summer warming on juvenile cod lengths. Warm summer temperatures in the coastal Skagerrak have limited juvenile growth. In contrast, warmer springs have resulted in larger juvenile cod, with less variation in lengths within a cohort, possibly because of a temperature-driven contraction in the spring spawning period. A density-dependent reduction in length was evident only at the highest population densities in the time series, which have rarely been observed in the last decade. If temperatures rise because of global warming, nonlinearities in the opposing temperature effects suggest that negative effects of warmer summers will increasingly outweigh positive effects of warmer springs, and the coastal Skagerrak will become ill-suited for Atlantic cod. PMID:21245301

  12. Growth-climate relationships across topographic gradients in the northern Great Lakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dymond, S.F.; D'Amato, A.W.; Kolka, R.K.; Bolstad, P.V.; Sebestyen, S.D.; Bradford, John B.

    2016-01-01

    Climatic conditions exert important control over the growth, productivity, and distribution of forests, and characterizing these relationships is essential for understanding how forest ecosystems will respond to climate change. We used dendrochronological methods to develop climate–growth relationships for two dominant species, Populus tremuloides (quaking aspen) and Pinus resinosa (red pine), in the upper Great Lakes region to understand how climate and water availability influence annual forest productivity. Trees were sampled along a topographic gradient at the Marcell Experimental Forest (Minnesota, USA) to assess growth response to variations in temperature and different water availability metrics (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), cumulative moisture index (CMI), and soil water storage). Climatic variables were able to explain 33–58% of the variation in annual growth (as measured by ring-width increment) for quaking aspen and 37–74% of the variation for red pine. Climate–growth relationships were influenced by topography for quaking aspen but not for red pine. Annual ring growth for quaking aspen decreased with June CMI on ridges, decreased with temperature in the November prior to the growing season on sideslopes, and decreased with June PET on toeslopes. Red pine growth increased with increasing July PET across all topographic positions. These results indicate the sensitivity of both quaking aspen and red pine to local climate and show several vulnerabilities of these species to shifts in water supply and temperature because of climate change.

  13. Competition alters tree growth responses to climate at individual and stand scales

    Treesearch

    Kevin R. Ford; Ian K. Breckheimer; Jerry F. Franklin; James A. Freund; Steve J. Kroiss; Andrew J. Larson; Elinore J. Theobald; Janneke HilleRisLambers

    2017-01-01

    Understanding how climate affects tree growth is essential for assessing climate change impacts on forests but can be confounded by effects of competition, which strongly influences tree responses to climate. We characterized the joint influences of tree size, competition, and climate on diameter growth using hierarchical Bayesian methods applied to permanent sample...

  14. Researchers consider U.S. Southwest's response to warmer, drier conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, Kevin M.; Webb, Robert H.

    In 2000, the popular press frequently referred to reports that the southwestern United States might experience a shift from relatively wet to dry conditions during the next couple of decades (see http://topex-www.jpl.nasa.gov/discover/PDO.html). These predictions stemmed from observations that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) appeared to abruptly change from a “positive” to a “negative” phase in 1999 (Figure 1). During the mid-twentieth century, a similar negative phase of the PDO was accompanied by prolonged dry conditions in the southwest.By extrapolation, some climatologists predicted future drought in the southwest. Such a change would heavily affect land use planning in the region, because national demographics have stressed the region's resources over the past century From 1990 to 2000, for instance, the population of Nevada and Arizona increased by almost 2.3 million people (http://www.census.gov/population/www/cen2000/respop.html). To discuss potential scenarios of landscape and ecosystem response to 25 years of hot and dry climate, scientists from diverse disciplines gathered at the University of Arizona in April 2001. The objectives of this workshop were to address evidence supporting predictions of warmer and drier climate and the possible landscape responses (http://geology.wr.usgs.gov/sw-workshop/).

  15. Climatic warming and the future of bison as grazers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Craine, Joseph M.; Towne, E. Gene; Miller, Mary; Fierer, Noah

    2015-11-01

    Climatic warming is likely to exacerbate nutritional stress and reduce weight gain in large mammalian herbivores by reducing plant nutritional quality. Yet accurate predictions of the effects of climatic warming on herbivores are limited by a poor understanding of how herbivore diet varies along climate gradients. We utilized DNA metabarcoding to reconstruct seasonal variation in the diet of North American bison (Bison bison) in two grasslands that differ in mean annual temperature by 6 °C. Here, we show that associated with greater nutritional stress in warmer climates, bison consistently consumed fewer graminoids and more shrubs and forbs, i.e. eudicots. Bison in the warmer grassland consumed a lower proportion of C3 grass, but not a greater proportion of C4 grass. Instead, bison diet in the warmer grassland had a greater proportion of N2-fixing eudicots, regularly comprising >60% of their protein intake in spring and fall. Although bison have been considered strict grazers, as climatic warming reduces grass protein concentrations, bison may have to attempt to compensate by grazing less and browsing more. Promotion of high-protein, palatable eudicots or increasing the protein concentrations of grasses will be critical to minimizing warming-imposed nutritional stress for bison and perhaps other large mammalian herbivores.

  16. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Insect Communities: A Transplant Experiment

    PubMed Central

    Nooten, Sabine S.; Andrew, Nigel R.; Hughes, Lesley

    2014-01-01

    Climate change will have profound impacts on the distribution, abundance and ecology of all species. We used a multi-species transplant experiment to investigate the potential effects of a warmer climate on insect community composition and structure. Eight native Australian plant species were transplanted into sites approximately 2.5°C (mean annual temperature) warmer than their native range. Subsequent insect colonisation was monitored for 12 months. We compared the insect communities on transplanted host plants at the warmer sites with control plants transplanted within the species' native range. Comparisons of the insect communities were also made among transplanted plants at warmer sites and congeneric plant species native to the warmer transplant area. We found that the morphospecies composition of the colonising Coleoptera and Hemiptera communities differed markedly between transplants at the control compared to the warmer sites. Community structure, as described by the distribution of feeding guilds, was also found to be different between the controls and transplants when the entire Coleoptera and Hemiptera community, including non-herbivore feeding guilds, was considered. However, the structure of the herbivorous insect community showed a higher level of consistency between plants at control and warm sites. There were marked differences in community composition and feeding guild structure, for both herbivores and non-herbivores, between transplants and congenerics at the warm sites. These results suggest that as the climate warms, considerable turnover in the composition of insect communities may occur, but insect herbivore communities may retain elements of their present-day structure. PMID:24465827

  17. Climate-mediated competition in a high-elevation salamander community

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dallalio, Eric A.; Brand, Adrianne B,; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

    2017-01-01

    The distribution of the federally endangered Shenandoah Salamander (Plethodon shenandoah) is presumed to be limited by competition with the Red-backed Salamander (Plethodon cinereus). In particular, the current distribution of P. shenandoah is understood to be restricted to warmer and drier habitats because of interspecific interactions. These habitats may be particularly sensitive to climate change, though the influence of competition may also be affected by temperature and relative humidity. We investigated the response of P. shenandoah to competition with P. cinereus under four climate scenarios in 3-dimensional mesocosms. The results suggest that, although climate change may alleviate competitive pressure from P. cinereus, warmer temperatures may also significantly influence the persistence of the species across its known range.

  18. Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe.

    PubMed

    Sáenz-Romero, Cuauhtémoc; Lamy, Jean-Baptiste; Ducousso, Alexis; Musch, Brigitte; Ehrenmann, François; Delzon, Sylvain; Cavers, Stephen; Chałupka, Władysław; Dağdaş, Said; Hansen, Jon Kehlet; Lee, Steve J; Liesebach, Mirko; Rau, Hans-Martin; Psomas, Achilleas; Schneck, Volker; Steiner, Wilfried; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Kremer, Antoine

    2017-07-01

    How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071-2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5-EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4-GEM2-ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will

  19. Parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.) and climate change: the effect of CO2 concentration, temperature, and water deficit on growth and reproduction of two biotypes.

    PubMed

    Nguyen, Thi; Bajwa, Ali Ahsan; Navie, Sheldon; O'Donnell, Chris; Adkins, Steve

    2017-04-01

    Climate change will have a considerable impact upon the processes that moderate weed invasion, in particular to that of parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.). This study evaluated the performance of two Australian biotypes of parthenium weed under a range of environmental conditions including soil moisture (100 and 50% of field capacity), atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration (390 and 550 ppm), and temperature (35/20 and 30/15 °C/day/night). Measurements were taken upon growth, reproductive output, seed biology (fill, viability and dormancy) and soil seed longevity. Parthenium weed growth and seed output were significantly increased under the elevated CO 2 concentration (550 ppm) and in the cooler (30/15 °C) and wetter (field capacity) conditions. However, elevated CO 2 concentration could not promote growth or seed output when the plants were grown under the warmer (35/20 °C) and wetter conditions. Warm temperatures accelerated the growth of parthenium weed, producing plants with greater height biomass but with a shorter life span. Warm temperatures also affected the reproductive output by promoting both seed production and fill, and promoting seed longevity. Dryer soil conditions (50% of field capacity) also promoted the reproductive output, but did not retain high seed fill or promote seed longevity. Therefore, the rising temperatures, the increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration and the longer periods of drought predicted under climate change scenarios are likely to substantially enhance the growth and reproductive output of these two Australian parthenium weed biotypes. This may facilitate the further invasion of this noxious weed in tropical and sub-tropical natural and agro-ecosystems.

  20. Phenological cues drive an apparent trade-off between freezing tolerance and growth in the family Salicaceae.

    PubMed

    Savage, Jessica A; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine

    2013-08-01

    With increasing concern about the ecological consequences of global climate change, there has been renewed interest in understanding the processes that determine species range limits. We tested a long-hypothesized trade-off between freezing tolerance and growth rate that is often used to explain species range limits. We grew 24 willow and poplar species (family Salicaceae) collected from across North America in a greenhouse common garden under two climate treatments. Maximum entropy models were used to describe species distributions and to estimate species-specific climate parameters. A range of traits related to freezing tolerance, including senescence, budburst, and susceptibility to different temperature minima during and after acclimation were measured. As predicted, species from colder climates exhibited higher freezing tolerance and slower growth rates than species from warmer climates under certain environmental conditions. However, the average relative growth rate (millimeters per meter per day) of northern species markedly increased when a subset of species was grown under a long summer day length (20.5 h), indicating that genetically based day-length cues are required for growth regulation in these species. We conclude that the observed relationship between freezing tolerance and growth rate is not driven by differences in species' intrinsic growth capacity but by differences in the environmental cues that trigger growth. We propose that the coordinated evolution of freezing tolerance and growth phenology could be important in circumscribing willow and poplar range limits and may have important implications for species' current and future distributions.

  1. Empirical Estimation of Climate Impacts Under Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rising, J. A.; Jina, A.; Hsiang, S. M.

    2016-12-01

    Estimating the impacts of climate change requires a careful account of both the present levels of adaptation observed in different regions and the adaptive capacity those regions might show under climate change. To date, little empirical evidence on either of these components. We present a general approach for empirically estimating the impacts of climate change under both forms of adaptation, applied to the United States. We draw upon relationships between daily temperatures and impacts on mortality, agriculture, and crime, from the econometric climate impacts literature. These are estimated using year-to-year temperature variation within each location. The degree to which regions are vulnerable to high temperatures varies across the US, with warmer regions generally showing less vulnerability. As climate changes, cooler regions will adopt behaviors from warmer regions, such as greater use of air conditioning, and their impact relationships will change accordingly. The rate at which regions have adapted is estimated from changes in these relationships over recent decades. We use these results to model future changes in each US county. as they are exposed to warmer temperatures and adopt characteristics of currently warmer areas. We do this across a full range of climate and statistical uncertainty. The median degree to which adaptation alleviates impacts varies by sector, with 10% lower rates of temperature-induced crime, 15% lower yield losses to maize, to 80% lower rates of heat-related mortality. However, the uncertainty in adaptive capacity remains greater than these changes. Uncertainty in regional response relationships and the rate of adaptation dominate the uncertainty in our total result. We perform two thought experiments to explore the extreme potential for adaptation in light of this uncertainty. We replace the regional relationships with a uniform approach to complete temperature insensitivity, using the normal estimated rate of adaptation. We also

  2. Assessing the Dynamic Effects of Climate on Individual Tree Growth Across Time and Space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Itter, M.; Finley, A. O.; D'Amato, A. W.; Foster, J. R.; Bradford, J. B.

    2015-12-01

    The relationship between climate variability and an ecosystem process, such as forest growth, is frequently not fixed over time, but changes due to complex interactions between unobserved ecological factors and the process of interest. Climate data and forecasts are frequently spatially and temporally misaligned with ecological observations making inference regarding the effects of climate on ecosystem processes particularly challenging. Here we develop a Bayesian dynamic hierarchical model for annual tree growth increment that allows the effects of climate to evolve over time, applies climate data at a spatial-temporal scale consistent with observations, and controls for individual-level variability commonly encountered in ecological datasets. The model is applied to individual tree data from northern Minnesota using a modified Thornthwaite-type water balance model to transform PRISM temperature and precipitation estimates to physiologically relevant values of actual and potential evapotranspiration (AET, PET), and climatic water deficit. Model results indicate that mean tree growth is most sensitive to AET during the growing season and PET and minimum temperature in the spring prior to growth. The effects of these variables on tree growth, however, are not stationary with significant effects observed in only a subset of years during the 111-year study period. Importantly, significant effects of climate do not result from anomalous climate observations, but follow from large growth deviations unexplained by tree age and size, and time since forest disturbance. Results differ markedly from alternative models that assume the effects of climate are stationary over time or apply climate estimates at the individual scale. Forecasts of future tree growth as a function of climate follow directly from the dynamic hierarchical model allowing for assessment of forest change. Current work is focused on extending the model framework to include regional climate and ecosystem

  3. Reconstruction of late Holocene climate based on tree growth and mechanistic hierarchical models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tipton, John; Hooten, Mevin B.; Pederson, Neil; Tingley, Martin; Bishop, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Reconstruction of pre-instrumental, late Holocene climate is important for understanding how climate has changed in the past and how climate might change in the future. Statistical prediction of paleoclimate from tree ring widths is challenging because tree ring widths are a one-dimensional summary of annual growth that represents a multi-dimensional set of climatic and biotic influences. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical framework using a nonlinear, biologically motivated tree ring growth model to jointly reconstruct temperature and precipitation in the Hudson Valley, New York. Using a common growth function to describe the response of a tree to climate, we allow for species-specific parameterizations of the growth response. To enable predictive backcasts, we model the climate variables with a vector autoregressive process on an annual timescale coupled with a multivariate conditional autoregressive process that accounts for temporal correlation and cross-correlation between temperature and precipitation on a monthly scale. Our multi-scale temporal model allows for flexibility in the climate response through time at different temporal scales and predicts reasonable climate scenarios given tree ring width data.

  4. Climate-growth relationships along a black spruce toposequence in Interior Alaska

    Treesearch

    Jane M. Wolken; Daniel H. Mann; Thomas A. Grant; Andrea H. Lloyd; T. Scott Rupp; Teresa N. Hollingsworth

    2016-01-01

    Despite its wide geographic distribution and important role in boreal forest fire regimes, little is known about the climate-growth relationships of black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.). We used site- and tree-level analyses to evaluate the radial growth responses to climate of black spruce growing...

  5. In-line pressure within a HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer, under various flow conditions.

    PubMed

    Higashi, Midoriko; Yamaura, Ken; Matsubara, Yukie; Fukudome, Takuya; Hoka, Sumio

    2015-04-01

    Roller pump infusion devices are widely used for rapid infusion, and may be combined with separate warming devices. There may be instances however, where the pressures generated by the roller pump may not be compatible with the warming device. We assessed a commonly used roller pump in combination with a HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer, and found that it could generate pressures exceeding the HOTLINE® manufacturers specifications. This was of concern because the HOTLINE® manufacturer guideline states that not for use with pressure devices generating over 300 mmHg. Pressure greater than 300 mmHg may compromise the integrity of the HOTLINE® Fluid Warming Set. The aim of this study was to compare in-line pressure within a HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer at different infusion rates of a roller pump using various sizes of intravenous cannulae. The rapid infusion system comprised a 500 mL-normal saline bag, roller pump type infusion device, HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer (blood and fluid warmer system), and six different sizes of intravenous cannulae. In-line pressure was measured proximal to the HOTLINE® (pre-warmer) and proximal to the cannula (post-warmer), at flow rate of 50-160 mL/min. The in-line pressures increased significantly with increasing flow rate. The pre-warmer pressures exceeded 300 mmHg when the flow rate was ≥120 mL/min with 20-gauge, 48 mm length cannula, 130 with 20-gauge, 25 mm cannula, and 160 mL/min with 18-gauge, 48 mm cannula. However, they were <300 mmHg at any flow rates with 18-gauge, 30 mm cannula and 16-gauge cannulae. The post-warmer pressures exceeded 300 mmHg at the flow rate of 140 mL/min with 20-gauge, 48 mm cannula, and 160 mL/min with 20-gauge, 25 mm cannula, while they were <300 mmHg at any flow rates with 18 and 16-gauge cannulae. The in-line pressure within a HOTLINE® could exceed 300 mmHg, depending on the flow rate and size and length of cannula. It is important to pay attention to the size and length of cannulae and flow rate to keep the maximum

  6. Pumps and warmers during amnioinfusion: is either necessary?

    PubMed

    Glantz, J C; Letteney, D L

    1996-01-01

    To determine if there is evidence from published reports that the use of infusion pumps or solution warmers during amnioinfusion is beneficial. We identified all English-language amnioinfusion reports published since 1983 through Medline and references. Fourteen prospective papers with at least 40 subjects were identified. For the amnioinfusion and control groups in each study, odds ratios (OR) were calculated for cesarean delivery, fetal distress, meconium below the cords, low 5-minute Apgar score, and endometritis. Cumulative ORs were calculated using the Mantel-Haenszel inverse variance method. This process was repeated after separation into pump-gravity and warmed-unwarmed groups. Multiple regression analyses were performed. Amnioinfusion improved the ability of the fetus to tolerate labor (fetal distress OR 0.40), decreased the incidence of meconium below the cords (OR 0.16), and decreased the rate of cesarean delivery (OR 0.56). There were no demonstrable benefits associated with the use of warmers or pumps. In multiple regression analysis, infusion pumps were associated with a significantly increased risk of fetal distress (P = .01). The use of amnioinfusion is associated with a decreased risk of fetal distress, meconium below the cords, and cesarean delivery. To date, there is no demonstrable benefit using infusion pumps or solution warmers during amnioinfusion.

  7. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Blue Mountains

    Treesearch

    Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson

    2017-01-01

    The Blue Mountains Adaptation Partnership was developed to identify climate change issues relevant to resource management in the Blue Mountains region, to find solutions that can minimize negative effects of climate change, and to facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. Partnering organizations included three national forests (Malheur, Umatilla...

  8. Simulation of growth of Adirondack conifers in relation to global climate change

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Pan, Y.; Raynal, D.J.

    1993-06-01

    Several conifer species grown in plantations in the southeastern Adirondack mountains of New York were chosen to model tree growth. In the models, annual xylem growth was decomposed into several components that reflect various intrinsic or extrinsic factors. Growth signals indicative of climatic effects were used to construct response functions using both multivariate analysis and Kalman filter methods. Two models were used to simulate tree growth response to future CO[sub 2]-induced climate change projected by GCMs. The comparable results of both models indicate that different conifer species have individualistic growth responses to future climatic change. The response behaviors of treesmore » are affected greatly by local stand conditions. The results suggest possible changes in future growth and distributions of naturally occurring conifers in this region.« less

  9. Extreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid; Najafi, M. S.

    2018-01-01

    Observations unequivocally show that Iran has been rapidly warming over recent decades, which in sequence has triggered a wide range of climatic impacts. Meteorological records of several ground stations across Iran with daily temporal resolution for the period 1951-2013 were analyzed to investigate the climate change and its impact on some weather extremes. Iran has warmed by nearly 1.3 °C during the period 1951-2013 (+0.2 °C per decade), with an increase of the minimum temperature at a rate two times that of the maximum. Consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat extremes and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes have been observed. The annual precipitation has decreased by 8 mm per decade, causing an expansion of Iran's dry zones. Previous studies have pointed out that warming is generally associated with more frequent heavy precipitation because a warmer air can hold more moisture. Nevertheless, warming in Iran has been associated with more frequent light precipitation, but less frequent moderate, heavy and extremely heavy precipitation. This is because in the subtropical dry zones, a longer time is required to recharge the atmosphere with water vapour in a warmer climate, causing more water vapour to be transported from the subtropics to high latitudes before precipitations forms. In addition, the altitude of the condensation level increases in a warmer climate in subtropical regions, causing an overall decrease of precipitation. We argue that changing in the frequency of heavy precipitation in response to warming varies depending on the geographical location. Warming over the dry subtropical regions is associated with a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation, while an increase is expected over both subpolar and tropical regions. The warmer climate has also led to the increase in the frequency of both thunderstorms (driven by convective heating) and dust events over Iran.

  10. Quantifying climate-growth relationships at the stand level in a mature mixed-species conifer forest.

    PubMed

    Teets, Aaron; Fraver, Shawn; Weiskittel, Aaron R; Hollinger, David Y

    2018-03-11

    A range of environmental factors regulate tree growth; however, climate is generally thought to most strongly influence year-to-year variability in growth. Numerous dendrochronological (tree-ring) studies have identified climate factors that influence year-to-year variability in growth for given tree species and location. However, traditional dendrochronology methods have limitations that prevent them from adequately assessing stand-level (as opposed to species-level) growth. We argue that stand-level growth analyses provide a more meaningful assessment of forest response to climate fluctuations, as well as the management options that may be employed to sustain forest productivity. Working in a mature, mixed-species stand at the Howland Research Forest of central Maine, USA, we used two alternatives to traditional dendrochronological analyses by (1) selecting trees for coring using a stratified (by size and species), random sampling method that ensures a representative sample of the stand, and (2) converting ring widths to biomass increments, which once summed, produced a representation of stand-level growth, while maintaining species identities or canopy position if needed. We then tested the relative influence of seasonal climate variables on year-to-year variability in the biomass increment using generalized least squares regression, while accounting for temporal autocorrelation. Our results indicate that stand-level growth responded most strongly to previous summer and current spring climate variables, resulting from a combination of individualistic climate responses occurring at the species- and canopy-position level. Our climate models were better fit to stand-level biomass increment than to species-level or canopy-position summaries. The relative growth responses (i.e., percent change) predicted from the most influential climate variables indicate stand-level growth varies less from to year-to-year than species-level or canopy-position growth responses. By

  11. Boreal forests, aerosols and the impacts on clouds and climate.

    PubMed

    Spracklen, Dominick V; Bonn, Boris; Carslaw, Kenneth S

    2008-12-28

    Previous studies have concluded that boreal forests warm the climate because the cooling from storage of carbon in vegetation and soils is cancelled out by the warming due to the absorption of the Sun's heat by the dark forest canopy. However, these studies ignored the impacts of forests on atmospheric aerosol. We use a global atmospheric model to show that, through emission of organic vapours and the resulting condensational growth of newly formed particles, boreal forests double regional cloud condensation nuclei concentrations (from approx. 100 to approx. 200 cm(-3)). Using a simple radiative model, we estimate that the resulting change in cloud albedo causes a radiative forcing of between -1.8 and -6.7 W m(-2) of forest. This forcing may be sufficiently large to result in boreal forests having an overall cooling impact on climate. We propose that the combination of climate forcings related to boreal forests may result in an important global homeostasis. In cold climatic conditions, the snow-vegetation albedo effect dominates and boreal forests warm the climate, whereas in warmer climates they may emit sufficiently large amounts of organic vapour modifying cloud albedo and acting to cool climate.

  12. Geographic variation in climate as a proxy for climate change: Forecasting evolutionary trajectories from species differentiation and genetic correlations.

    PubMed

    Schneider, Heather E; Mazer, Susan J

    2016-01-01

    Climate change models for California predict a warmer, drier future, potentially resulting in shorter growing seasons. If phenotypic differences between closely related species currently distributed across a moisture and temperature gradient represent adaptations to their abiotic environment, then as conditions become warmer and drier, populations presently adapted to cooler and wetter conditions may evolve to become more similar to those adapted to warmer and drier conditions. Two sister species, Clarkia unguiculata and C. exilis, are distributed across a moisture and temperature gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada, providing an opportunity to predict how this process may occur. In a greenhouse experiment using wild-collected seeds from 11 populations in the southern Sierra Nevada, we examined relationships among elevation, climatic conditions, and population means for each trait, then evaluated bivariate relationships among maternal family means, using raw values and controlling for population and seed mass effects on phenotype. Clarkia exilis occupied warmer, drier conditions, typically at lower elevations, than C. unguiculata did and flowered earlier and faster, producing smaller flowers with lower herkogamy. In C. unguiculata, petal area, herkogamy, and the rate of flower production were positively correlated with days to first flower. If selection favors earlier flowering, smaller petals, or faster flower production in C. unguiculata, then the genetic correlations among these traits should reinforce their joint evolution. Moreover, the correlations between these traits and herkogamy may promote the evolution of self-fertilization as an indirect response to selection, a previously unrecognized potential outcome of climate change. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

  13. Climate change, zoonoses and India.

    PubMed

    Singh, B B; Sharma, R; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Banga, H S

    2011-12-01

    Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review.

  14. Environmental effects on growth phenology of co-occurring Eucalyptus species.

    PubMed

    Rawal, Deepa S; Kasel, Sabine; Keatley, Marie R; Aponte, Cristina; Nitschke, Craig R

    2014-05-01

    Growth is one of the most important phenological cycles in a plant's life. Higher growth rates increase the competitive ability, survival and recruitment and can provide a measure of a plant's adaptive capacity to climate variability and change. This study identified the growth relationship of six Eucalyptus species to variations in temperature, soil moisture availability, photoperiod length and air humidity over 12 months. The six species represent two naturally co-occurring groups of three species each representing warm-dry and the cool-moist sclerophyll forests, respectively. Warm-dry eucalypts were found to be more tolerant of higher temperatures and lower air humidity than the cool-moist eucalypts. Within groups, species-specific responses were detected with Eucalyptus microcarpa having the widest phenological niche of the warm-dry species, exhibiting greater resistance to high temperature and lower air humidity. Temperature dependent photoperiodic responses were exhibited by all the species except Eucalyptus tricarpa and Eucalyptus sieberi, which were able to maintain growth as photoperiod shortened but temperature requirements were fulfilled. Eucalyptus obliqua exhibited a flexible growth rate and tolerance to moisture limitation which enables it to maintain its growth rate as water availability changes. The wider temperature niche exhibited by E. sieberi compared with E. obliqua and Eucalyptus radiata may improve its competitive ability over these species where winters are warm and moisture does not limit growth. With climate change expected to result in warmer and drier conditions in south-east Australia, the findings of this study suggest all cool-moist species will likely suffer negative effects on growth while the warm-dry species may still maintain current growth rates. Our findings highlight that climate driven shifts in growth phenology will likely occur as climate changes and this may facilitate changes in tree communities by altering inter

  15. Relationships between climate and growth of Gymnocypris selincuoensis in the Tibetan Plateau

    PubMed Central

    Tao, Juan; Chen, Yifeng; He, Dekui; Ding, Chengzhi

    2015-01-01

    The consequences of climate change are becoming increasingly evident in the Tibetan Plateau, represented by glaciers retreating and lakes expanding, but the biological response to climate change by plateau–lake ecosystems is poorly known. In this study, we applied dendrochronology methods to develop a growth index chronology with otolith increment widths of Selincuo naked carp (Gymnocypris selincuoensis), which is an endemic species in Lake Selincuo (4530 m), and investigated the relationships between fish growth and climate variables (regional and global) in the last three decades. A correlation analysis and principle component regression analysis between regional climate factors and the growth index chronology indicated that the growth of G. selincuoensis was significantly and positively correlated with length of the growing season and temperature-related variables, particularly during the growing season. Most of global climate variables, which are relevant to the Asian monsoon and the midlatitude westerlies, such as El Nino Southern Oscillation Index, the Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and North America Pattern, showed negative but not significant correlations with the annual growth of Selincuo naked carp. This may have resulted from the high elevation of the Tibetan Plateau and the high mountains surrounding this area. In comparison, the Pacific Decade Oscillation (PDO) negatively affected the growth of G. selincuoensis. The reason maybe that enhancement of the PDO can lead to cold conditions in this area. Taken together, the results indicate that the Tibetan Plateau fish has been affected by global climate change, particularly during the growing season, and global climate change likely has important effects on productivity of aquatic ecosystems in this area. PMID:25937912

  16. Relationships between climate and growth of Gymnocypris selincuoensis in the Tibetan Plateau.

    PubMed

    Tao, Juan; Chen, Yifeng; He, Dekui; Ding, Chengzhi

    2015-04-01

    The consequences of climate change are becoming increasingly evident in the Tibetan Plateau, represented by glaciers retreating and lakes expanding, but the biological response to climate change by plateau-lake ecosystems is poorly known. In this study, we applied dendrochronology methods to develop a growth index chronology with otolith increment widths of Selincuo naked carp (Gymnocypris selincuoensis), which is an endemic species in Lake Selincuo (4530 m), and investigated the relationships between fish growth and climate variables (regional and global) in the last three decades. A correlation analysis and principle component regression analysis between regional climate factors and the growth index chronology indicated that the growth of G. selincuoensis was significantly and positively correlated with length of the growing season and temperature-related variables, particularly during the growing season. Most of global climate variables, which are relevant to the Asian monsoon and the midlatitude westerlies, such as El Nino Southern Oscillation Index, the Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and North America Pattern, showed negative but not significant correlations with the annual growth of Selincuo naked carp. This may have resulted from the high elevation of the Tibetan Plateau and the high mountains surrounding this area. In comparison, the Pacific Decade Oscillation (PDO) negatively affected the growth of G. selincuoensis. The reason maybe that enhancement of the PDO can lead to cold conditions in this area. Taken together, the results indicate that the Tibetan Plateau fish has been affected by global climate change, particularly during the growing season, and global climate change likely has important effects on productivity of aquatic ecosystems in this area.

  17. Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDowell, Nathan G.; Allen, Craig D.

    2015-07-01

    Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle. We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy’s law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy’s law indicates today’s forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy’s corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. Given the robustness of Darcy’s law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today’s forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

  18. Resolving contradictory reconstructions of Alpine climate in 1540 - Using Nonlinearities in Tree Growth Response to Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, J.; Tolwinski-ward, S. E.

    2013-12-01

    Reconstructions of Swiss climate based on documentary data suggest that the year 1540 was anomalously hot and dry (Wetter and Pfister 2013, Wetter et al in prep). They stand in stark contrast to reconstructions from tree ring data (Casty et al. 2005) in which 1540 climate is within the range of average conditions. In this contribution we combine documentary and dendrochronological sources of information and account for potential nonlinearities in the response of the tree ring signal to climate in order to resolve this apparent contradiction. Our reconstruction uses a Bayesian hierarchical model, with a nonlinear, mechanisms-based model for tree-ring data (Tolwinski-Ward et al. 2010) and a multinomial model for the documentary data. The results show that the extreme heat conditions documented in written crop records of 1540 cross a biological threshold above which the formation of latewood density is not limited by temperature. We thus demonstrate that the tree ring and documentary data for 1540 are in fact consistent within the ranges of uncertainty used to interpret each source of information, and together indicate anomalously hot and dry conditions in that year, although to a lesser extend as reconstructed by Wetter and Pfister (2013). Casty et al. "Temperature and precipitation variability in the European Alps since 1500", Int. J. Climatol. 25, 1855-1880 (2005) Tolwinski-Ward et al. "An efficient forward model of the climate controls on interannual variation in tree-ring width", Clim. Dyn. 36, 2419--2439 (2010) Werner and Tolwinski-Ward, in prep. Wetter and Pfister "An underestimated record breaking event: why summer 1540 was very likely warmer than 2003", Clim. Past 9, 41-56 (2013) Wetter et al. "The European Mega-drought of 1540 - an evidence-based Worst Case Scenario" (in prep.)

  19. Climate-growth relationships of Abies spectabilis in a central Himalayan treeline ecotone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwab, Niels; Kaczka, Ryszard J.; Schickhoff, Udo

    2017-04-01

    Climate warming is expected to induce treelines to advance to higher elevations. Empirical studies in diverse mountain ranges, however, give evidence of both advancing alpine treelines as well as rather insignificant responses. The large spectrum of responses is not fully understood. In the framework of investigating the sensitivity and response of a near-natural treeline ecotone in Rolwaling Himal, Nepal, to climate warming we present results from dendroclimatological analyses of Abies spectabilis (Himalayan Fir) increment cores. Tree ring width was measured and cross-dated. After standardization, the chronology was correlated with temperature and precipitation variables. Preliminary results point to positive correlations with autumn temperature and precipitation. We will present improved climate-growth relationships. The resulting climate - tree growth relationships may be used as an indication of future growth patterns and treeline dynamics under climate change conditions.

  20. Projections of European summer tourism demand at a +2 degrees warmer climate.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grillakis, Manolis; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Tsanis, Ioannis; Jacob, Daniela

    2015-04-01

    Tourism is a billion euros industry for Europe and especially for the southern countries for which summer tourism is an important contribution to their GDP. It is highly dependent on the climate and any future changes will alter the favorability of European destinations. The impact of a potential global temperature increase of 1.5 and 2 degrees on European tourism was investigated in the frame of IMPACT2C FP7 project. Climate information from four ENSEMBLES and five Euro-CORDEX RCMs were used to estimate the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) under the A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The monthly averages of the historical TCI estimates were correlated to the recorded monthly averages of overnight stays for all considered NUTS3 regions in Europe. The correlation proved to be significantly high for the majority of these regions with higher values for the European South, while the lowest correlation was attained for Sweden Denmark and Austria. The correlation estimates was then used to provide information about the change in tourism activity due to changes in the future climate favorability through the TCI. The results show that for the May to October "summer tourism" season, and under +1.5 and +2 degrees climate the potential overnight stays are projected to increase in average in almost the entire European domain, except Cyprus which exhibits a consistent decrease, robust across all scenarios. In contrast, for the peak of the summer season between June and August, it is projected that the European south will potentially exhibit decrease in the overnight stays to as high as 20% and for some cases to even higher than 30% (Greece). Key strength of the results are the correlation of measured tourism indicators to a conceptual index, which gives the ability to quantify the change in the tourism indicator, rather than investigating the coarser concept of climate risk.

  1. Urban growth, climate change, and freshwater availability

    PubMed Central

    McDonald, Robert I.; Green, Pamela; Balk, Deborah; Fekete, Balazs M.; Revenga, Carmen; Todd, Megan; Montgomery, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Nearly 3 billion additional urban dwellers are forecasted by 2050, an unprecedented wave of urban growth. While cities struggle to provide water to these new residents, they will also face equally unprecedented hydrologic changes due to global climate change. Here we use a detailed hydrologic model, demographic projections, and climate change scenarios to estimate per-capita water availability for major cities in the developing world, where urban growth is the fastest. We estimate the amount of water physically available near cities and do not account for problems with adequate water delivery or quality. Modeled results show that currently 150 million people live in cities with perennial water shortage, defined as having less than 100 L per person per day of sustainable surface and groundwater flow within their urban extent. By 2050, demographic growth will increase this figure to almost 1 billion people. Climate change will cause water shortage for an additional 100 million urbanites. Freshwater ecosystems in river basins with large populations of urbanites with insufficient water will likely experience flows insufficient to maintain ecological process. Freshwater fish populations will likely be impacted, an issue of special importance in regions such as India's Western Ghats, where there is both rapid urbanization and high levels of fish endemism. Cities in certain regions will struggle to find enough water for the needs of their residents and will need significant investment if they are to secure adequate water supplies and safeguard functioning freshwater ecosystems for future generations. PMID:21444797

  2. Climate, icing, and wild arctic reindeer: past relationships and future prospects.

    PubMed

    Hansen, Brage Bremset; Aanes, Ronny; Herfindal, Ivar; Kohler, Jack; Saether, Bernt-Erik

    2011-10-01

    Across the Arctic, heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) is an "extreme" climatic event that is expected to become increasingly frequent with global warming. This has potentially large ecosystem implications through changes in snowpack properties and ground-icing, which can block the access to herbivores' winter food and thereby suppress their population growth rates. However, the supporting empirical evidence for this is still limited. We monitored late winter snowpack properties to examine the causes and consequences of ground-icing in a Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) metapopulation. In this high-arctic area, heavy ROS occurred annually, and ground-ice covered from 25% to 96% of low-altitude habitat in the sampling period (2000-2010). The extent of ground-icing increased with the annual number of days with heavy ROS (> or = 10 mm) and had a strong negative effect on reindeer population growth rates. Our results have important implications as a downscaled climate projection (2021-2050) suggests a substantial future increase in ROS and icing. The present study is the first to demonstrate empirically that warmer and wetter winter climate influences large herbivore population dynamics by generating ice-locked pastures. This may serve as an early warning of the importance of changes in winter climate and extreme weather events in arctic ecosystems.

  3. Climate change and temperate zone insects: the tyranny of thermodynamics meets the world of limited resources.

    PubMed

    Adamo, Shelley A; Baker, Jillian L; Lovett, Maggie M E; Wilson, Graham

    2012-12-01

    Climate change will result in warmer temperatures and an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. Given that higher temperatures increase the reproductive rate of temperate zone insects, insect population growth rates are predicted to increase in the temperate zone in response to climate. This consensus, however, rests on the assumption that food is freely available. However, under conditions of limited food, the reproductive output of the Texan cricket Gryllus texensis (Cade and Otte) was highest at its current normal average temperature and declined with increasing temperature. Moreover, low food availability decreased survival during a simulated heat wave. Therefore, the effects of climate change on this species, and possibly on many others, are likely to hinge on food availability. Extrapolation from our data suggests that G. texensis will show larger yearly fluctuations in population size as climate change continues, and this will also have ecological repercussions. Only those temperate zone insects with a ready supply of food (e.g., agricultural pests) are likely to experience the predicted increase in population growth in response to climate change; food-limited species are likely to experience a population decline.

  4. Climate change and the Delta

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dettinger, Michael; Anderson, Jamie; Anderson, Michael L.; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Maurer, Edwin P.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful

  5. Hydrogeologic controls on streamflow sensitivity to climate variation

    Treesearch

    Anne Jefferson; Anne Nolin; Sarah Lewis; Christina Tague

    2008-01-01

    Climate models project warmer temperatures for the north-west USA, which will result in reduced snowpacks and decreased summer streamflow. This paper examines how groundwater, snowmelt, and regional climate patterns control discharge at multiple time scales, using historical records from two watersheds with contrasting geological properties and drainage efficiencies....

  6. A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Ashraf, M Irfan; Meng, Fan-Rui; Bourque, Charles P-A; MacLean, David A

    2015-01-01

    Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA) and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model). Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS) of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm(2) 5-year(-1) and volume: 0.0008 m(3) 5-year(-1)). Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE) in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm(2) 5-year(-1) and 0.0393 m(3) 5-year(-1) in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence technology

  7. A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Ashraf, M. Irfan; Meng, Fan-Rui; Bourque, Charles P.-A.; MacLean, David A.

    2015-01-01

    Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA) and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model). Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS) of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm2 5-year-1 and volume: 0.0008 m3 5-year-1). Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE) in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm2 5-year-1 and 0.0393 m3 5-year-1 in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence technology has substantial

  8. Climate Change Implications to Vegetation Production in Alaska

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Neigh, Christopher S.R.

    2008-01-01

    Investigation of long-term meteorological satellite data revealed statistically significant vegetation response to climate drivers of temperature, precipitation and solar radiation with exclusion of fire disturbance in Alaska. Abiotic trends were correlated to satellite remote sensing observations of normalized difference vegetation index to understand biophysical processes that could impact ecosystem carbon storage. Warming resulted in disparate trajectories for vegetation growth due to precipitation and photosynthetically active radiation variation. Interior spruce forest low lands in late summer through winter had precipitation deficit which resulted in extensive fire disturbance and browning of undisturbed vegetation with reduced post-fire recovery while Northern slope moist alpine tundra had increased production due to warmer-wetter conditions during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Coupled investigation of Alaska s vegetation response to warming climate found spatially dynamic abiotic processes with vegetation browning not a result from increased fire disturbance.

  9. Spatial variability in forest growth—climate relationships in the Olympic Mountains, Washington.

    Treesearch

    Jill M. Nakawatase; David L. Peterson

    2006-01-01

    For many Pacific Northwest forests, little is known about the spatial and temporal variability in tree growth - climate relationships, yet it is this information that is needed to predict how forests will respond to future climatic change. We studied the effects of climatic variability on forest growth at 74 plots in the western and northeastern Olympic Mountains....

  10. Growth and reproduction respond differently to climate in three Neotropical tree species.

    PubMed

    Alfaro-Sánchez, Raquel; Muller-Landau, Helene C; Wright, S Joseph; Camarero, J Julio

    2017-06-01

    The response of tropical forests to anthropogenic climate change is critically important to future global carbon budgets, yet remains highly uncertain. Here, we investigate how precipitation, temperature, solar radiation and dry- and wet-season lengths are related to annual tree growth, flower production, and fruit production in three moist tropical forest tree species using long-term datasets from tree rings and litter traps in central Panama. We also evaluated how growth, flower, and fruit production were interrelated. We found that growth was positively correlated with wet-season precipitation in all three species: Jacaranda copaia (r = 0.63), Tetragastris panamensis (r = 0.39) and Trichilia tuberculata (r = 0.39). Flowering and fruiting in Jacaranda were negatively related to current-year dry-season rainfall and positively related to prior-year dry-season rainfall. Flowering in Tetragastris was negatively related to current-year annual mean temperature while Trichilia showed no significant relationships of reproduction with climate. Growth was significantly related to reproduction only in Tetragastris, where it was positively related to previous year fruiting. Our results suggest that tree growth in moist tropical forest tree species is generally reduced by drought events such as those associated with strong El Niño events. In contrast, interannual variation in reproduction is not generally associated with growth and has distinct and species-specific climate responses, with positive effects of El Niño events in some species. Understanding these contrasting climate effects on tree growth and reproduction is critical to predicting changes in tropical forest dynamics and species composition under climate change.

  11. Elevated CO2, warmer temperatures and soil water deficit affect plant growth, physiology and water use of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.)

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Changes in temperature, atmospheric [CO2] and precipitation under the scenarios of projected climate change present a challenge to crop production, and may have significant impacts on the physiology, growth and yield of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.). A glasshouse experiment explored the early growt...

  12. Climate-change adaptation on rangelands: Linking regional exposure with diverse adaptive capacity

    Treesearch

    David D. Briske; Linda A. Joyce; H. Wayne Polley; Joel R. Brown; Klaus Wolter; Jack A. Morgan; Bruce A. McCarl; Derek W. Bailey

    2015-01-01

    The ecological consequences of climate change are predicted to vary greatly throughout US rangelands. Projections show warming and drying in the southern Great Plains and the Southwest, warmer and drier summers with reduced winter snowpack in the Northwest, and warmer and wetter conditions in the northern Great Plains. Primarily through their combined effects on soil...

  13. Darcy’s law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McDowell, Nate G.; Allen, Craig D.

    2015-01-01

    Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle. We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy’s law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy’s law indicates today’s forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy’s corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. Given the robustness of Darcy’s law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today’s forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

  14. Climate change: Future rise in rain inequality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biasutti, Michela

    2013-05-01

    Rainfall disparities are expected to intensify in response to anthropogenic climate change. Model simulations suggest that wet regions and seasons will get wetter, and that a warmer equator will get wetter too.

  15. Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortalityunder climate warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.

    2015-12-01

    Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle. We used a hydraulic corollary to Darcy's law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy's law indicates today's forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy's corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. There are assumptions and omissions in this theoretical prediction, as well as new evidence supporting its predictions, both of which I will review. Given the robustness of Darcy's law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today's forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

  16. Climate Response of Tree Radial Growth at Different Timescales in the Qinling Mountains.

    PubMed

    Sun, Changfeng; Liu, Yu

    2016-01-01

    The analysis of the tree radial growth response to climate is crucial for dendroclimatological research. However, the response relationships between tree-ring indices and climatic factors at different timescales are not yet clear. In this study, the tree-ring width of Huashan pine (Pinus armandii) from Huashan in the Qinling Mountains, north-central China, was used to explore the response differences of tree growth to climatic factors at daily, pentad (5 days), dekad (10 days) and monthly timescales. Correlation function and linear regression analysis were applied in this paper. The tree-ring width showed a more sensitive response to daily and pentad climatic factors. With the timescale decreasing, the absolute value of the maximum correlation coefficient between the tree-ring data and precipitation increases as well as temperature (mean, minimum and maximum temperature). Compared to the other three timescales, pentad was more suitable for analysing the response of tree growth to climate. Relative to the monthly climate data, the association between the tree-ring data and the pentad climate data was more remarkable and accurate, and the reconstruction function based on the pentad climate was also more reliable and stable. We found that the major climatic factor limiting Huashan pine growth was the precipitation of pentads 20-35 (from April 6 to June 24) rather than the well-known April-June precipitation. The pentad was also proved to be a better timescale for analysing the climate and tree growth in the western and eastern Qinling Mountains. The formation of the earlywood density of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) from Shimenshan in western Qinling was mainly affected by the maximum temperature of pentads 28-32 (from May 16 to June 9). The maximum temperature of pentads 28-33 (from May 16 to June 14) was the major factor affecting the ring width of Chinese pine from Shirenshan in eastern Qinling.

  17. Wild apple growth and climate change in southeast Kazakhstan

    Treesearch

    Irina P. Panyushkina; Nurjan S. Mukhamadiev; Ann M. Lynch; Nursagim A. Ashikbaev; Alexis H. Arizpe; Christopher D. O' Connor; Danyar Abjanbaev; Gulnaz Z. Mengdbayeva; Abay O. Sagitov

    2017-01-01

    Wild populations of Malus sieversii [Ldb.] M. Roem are valued genetic and watershed resources in Inner Eurasia. These populations are located in a region that has experienced rapid and on-going climatic change over the past several decades. We assess relationships between climate variables and wild apple radial growth with dendroclimatological techniques to understand...

  18. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Intermountain Region [Part 1

    Treesearch

    Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; Joanne J. Ho; Natalie Little; Linda A. Joyce

    2018-01-01

    The Intermountain Adaptation Partnership (IAP) identified climate change issues relevant to resource management on Federal lands in Nevada, Utah, southern Idaho, eastern California, and western Wyoming, and developed solutions intended to minimize negative effects of climate change and facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. U.S. Department of...

  19. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Intermountain Region [Part 2

    Treesearch

    Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; Joanne J. Ho; Natalie Little; Linda A. Joyce

    2018-01-01

    The Intermountain Adaptation Partnership (IAP) identified climate change issues relevant to resource management on Federal lands in Nevada, Utah, southern Idaho, eastern California, and western Wyoming, and developed solutions intended to minimize negative effects of climate change and facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. U.S. Department of...

  20. Fire-induced erosion and millennial-scale climate change in northern ponderosa pine forests.

    PubMed

    Pierce, Jennifer L; Meyer, Grant A; Jull, A J Timothy

    2004-11-04

    Western US ponderosa pine forests have recently suffered extensive stand-replacing fires followed by hillslope erosion and sedimentation. These fires are usually attributed to increased stand density as a result of fire suppression, grazing and other land use, and are often considered uncharacteristic or unprecedented. Tree-ring records from the past 500 years indicate that before Euro-American settlement, frequent, low-severity fires maintained open stands. However, the pre-settlement period between about ad 1500 and ad 1900 was also generally colder than present, raising the possibility that rapid twentieth-century warming promoted recent catastrophic fires. Here we date fire-related sediment deposits in alluvial fans in central Idaho to reconstruct Holocene fire history in xeric ponderosa pine forests and examine links to climate. We find that colder periods experienced frequent low-severity fires, probably fuelled by increased understory growth. Warmer periods experienced severe droughts, stand-replacing fires and large debris-flow events that comprise a large component of long-term erosion and coincide with similar events in sub-alpine forests of Yellowstone National Park. Our results suggest that given the powerful influence of climate, restoration of processes typical of pre-settlement times may be difficult in a warmer future that promotes severe fires.

  1. Disentangling the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment.

    PubMed

    Madrigal-González, Jaime; Andivia, Enrique; Zavala, Miguel A; Stoffel, Markus; Calatayud, Joaquín; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan

    2018-06-14

    Climate change can impair ecosystem functions and services in extensive dry forests worldwide. However, attribution of climate change impacts on tree growth and forest productivity is challenging due to multiple inter-annual patterns of climatic variability associated with atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Moreover, growth responses to rising atmospheric CO 2 , namely carbon fertilization, as well as size ontogenetic changes can obscure the climate change signature as well. Here we apply Structural Equation Models (SEM) to investigate the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment (i.e., extreme in terms of the combination of sandy-unconsolidated soils and climatic aridity). Specifically, we analyzed potential direct and indirect pathways by which different sources of climatic variability (i.e. warming and precipitation trends, the North Atlantic Oscillation, [NAO]; the Mediterranean Oscillation, [MOI]; the Atlantic Mediterranean Oscillation, [AMO]) affect aridity through their control on local climate (in terms of mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation), and subsequently tree productivity, in terms of basal area increments (BAI). Our results support the predominant role of Diameter at Breast Height (DHB) as the main growth driver. In terms of climate, NAO and AMO are the most important drivers of tree growth through their control of aridity (via effects of precipitation and temperature, respectively). Furthermore and contrary to current expectations, our findings also support a net positive role of climate warming on growth over the last 50 years and suggest that impacts of climate warming should be evaluated considering multi-annual and multi-decadal periods of local climate defined by atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. The role of climate change in interpreting historical variability

    Treesearch

    Constance I. Millar; Wallace B. Woolfenden

    1999-01-01

    Significant climate anomalies have characterized the last 1000 yr in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Two warm, dry periods of 150- and 200-yr duration occurred during AD 900-1350, which were followed by anomalously cold climates, known as the Little Ice Age, that lasted from AD 1400 to 1900. Climate in the last century has been significantly warmer. Regional biotic...

  3. Energy metabolism and substrate utilization in low birth weight neonates under radiant warmers.

    PubMed

    Marks, K H; Nardis, E E; Momin, M N

    1986-09-01

    We evaluated the metabolic response to the thermal demands of an open radiant warmer device, as distinct from convection incubator, in 13 healthy premature infants (1.395 +/- 169 g, 28 +/- 12 days of age, mean +/- SD). Metabolic rate was 10% higher for infants under the radiant warmer than in the incubator (2.60 +/- 0.4 v 2.36 +/- 0.3 kcal/kg/h; P less than .05). The radiant warmer also induced a small (4%), but significant, increase in nonprotein respiratory quotient (0.94 +/- 0.1 v 0.90 +/- 0.1; P less than .05) and a 13% increase in carbon dioxide production (8.26 +/- 1.1 v 7.31 +/- 1.1 mL/kg/min; P less than .05). Subcutaneous fat accumulation (estimated from 60-second skin-fold thickness measurements) was greater under the radiant warmer than in the incubator (0.08 +/- 0.05 v 0.04 +/- 0.04 mm/d; P less than .05). Under the warmer, the infant's mean skin temperatures and core temperatures were normal and similar to those found in the incubator, but the foot temperature was on average 0.6 degrees C cooler. The average rate of weight gain (18 g/kg/d) was the same in the radiant environment. The pattern of the elevated metabolic rate, shift of respiratory quotient coupled with the accumulation of subcutaneous fat, and cool extremities of infants under the radiant warmer may represent a physiologic adaptive response to thermal stress. However, the reasons for the elevated metabolic rate are unclear, because activation of the sympathetic nervous system with the release of catecholamines is not apparently involved.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  4. Both life-history plasticity and local adaptation will shape range-wide responses to climate warming in the tundra plant Silene acaulis.

    PubMed

    Peterson, Megan L; Doak, Daniel F; Morris, William F

    2018-04-01

    Many predictions of how climate change will impact biodiversity have focused on range shifts using species-wide climate tolerances, an approach that ignores the demographic mechanisms that enable species to attain broad geographic distributions. But these mechanisms matter, as responses to climate change could fundamentally differ depending on the contributions of life-history plasticity vs. local adaptation to species-wide climate tolerances. In particular, if local adaptation to climate is strong, populations across a species' range-not only those at the trailing range edge-could decline sharply with global climate change. Indeed, faster rates of climate change in many high latitude regions could combine with local adaptation to generate sharper declines well away from trailing edges. Combining 15 years of demographic data from field populations across North America with growth chamber warming experiments, we show that growth and survival in a widespread tundra plant show compensatory responses to warming throughout the species' latitudinal range, buffering overall performance across a range of temperatures. However, populations also differ in their temperature responses, consistent with adaptation to local climate, especially growing season temperature. In particular, warming begins to negatively impact plant growth at cooler temperatures for plants from colder, northern populations than for those from warmer, southern populations, both in the field and in growth chambers. Furthermore, the individuals and maternal families with the fastest growth also have the lowest water use efficiency at all temperatures, suggesting that a trade-off between growth and water use efficiency could further constrain responses to forecasted warming and drying. Taken together, these results suggest that populations throughout species' ranges could be at risk of decline with continued climate change, and that the focus on trailing edge populations risks overlooking the largest

  5. Mixed precipitation occurrences over southern Québec, Canada, under warmer climate conditions using a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matte, Dominic; Thériault, Julie M.; Laprise, René

    2018-05-01

    Winter weather events with temperatures near 0°C are often associated with freezing rain. They can have major impacts on the society by causing power outages and disruptions to the transportation networks. Despite the catastrophic consequences of freezing rain, very few studies have investigated how their occurrences could evolve under climate change. This study aims to investigate the change of freezing rain and ice pellets over southern Québec using regional climate modeling at high resolution. The fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model with climate scenario RCP 8.5 at 0.11° grid mesh was used. The precipitation types such as freezing rain, ice pellets or their combination are diagnosed using five methods (Cantin and Bachand, Bourgouin, Ramer, Czys and, Baldwin). The occurrences of the diagnosed precipitation types for the recent past (1980-2009) are found to be comparable to observations. The projections for the future scenario (2070-2099) suggested a general decrease in the occurrences of mixed precipitation over southern Québec from October to April. This is mainly due to a decrease in long-duration events (≥6 h ). Overall, this study contributes to better understand how the distribution of freezing rain and ice pellets might change in the future using high-resolution regional climate model.

  6. Economic growth, climate change, biodiversity loss: distributive justice for the global north and south.

    PubMed

    Rosales, Jon

    2008-12-01

    Economic growth-the increase in production and consumption of goods and services-must be considered within its biophysical context. Economic growth is fueled by biophysical inputs and its outputs degrade ecological processes, such as the global climate system. Economic growth is currently the principal cause of increased climate change, and climate change is a primary mechanism of biodiversity loss. Therefore, economic growth is a prime catalyst of biodiversity loss. Because people desire economic growth for dissimilar reasons-some for the increased accumulation of wealth, others for basic needs-how we limit economic growth becomes an ethical problem. Principles of distributive justice can help construct an international climate-change regime based on principles of equity. An equity-based framework that caps economic growth in the most polluting economies will lessen human impact on biodiversity. When coupled with a cap-and-trade mechanism, the framework can also provide a powerful tool for redistribution of wealth. Such an equity-based framework promises to be more inclusive and therefore more effective because it accounts for the disparate developmental conditions of the global north and south.

  7. Climate change accelerates growth of urban trees in metropolises worldwide.

    PubMed

    Pretzsch, Hans; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Dahlhausen, Jens; Schütze, Gerhard; Perkins, Diana; Rötzer, Thomas; Caldentey, Juan; Koike, Takayoshi; Con, Tran van; Chavanne, Aurélia; Toit, Ben du; Foster, Keith; Lefer, Barry

    2017-11-13

    Despite the importance of urban trees, their growth reaction to climate change and to the urban heat island effect has not yet been investigated with an international scope. While we are well informed about forest growth under recent conditions, it is unclear if this knowledge can be simply transferred to urban environments. Based on tree ring analyses in ten metropolises worldwide, we show that, in general, urban trees have undergone accelerated growth since the 1960s. In addition, urban trees tend to grow more quickly than their counterparts in the rural surroundings. However, our analysis shows that climate change seems to enhance the growth of rural trees more than that of urban trees. The benefits of growing in an urban environment seem to outweigh known negative effects, however, accelerated growth may also mean more rapid ageing and shortened lifetime. Thus, city planners should adapt to the changed dynamics in order to secure the ecosystem services provided by urban trees.

  8. Gender specific reproductive strategies of an arctic key species (Boreogadus saida) and implications of climate change.

    PubMed

    Nahrgang, Jasmine; Varpe, Oystein; Korshunova, Ekaterina; Murzina, Svetlana; Hallanger, Ingeborg G; Vieweg, Ireen; Berge, Jørgen

    2014-01-01

    The Arctic climate is changing at an unprecedented rate. What consequences this may have on the Arctic marine ecosystem depends to a large degree on how its species will respond both directly to elevated temperatures and more indirectly through ecological interactions. But despite an alarming recent warming of the Arctic with accompanying sea ice loss, reports evaluating ecological impacts of climate change in the Arctic remain sparse. Here, based upon a large-scale field study, we present basic new knowledge regarding the life history traits for one of the most important species in the entire Arctic, the polar cod (Boreogadus saida). Furthermore, by comparing regions of contrasting climatic influence (domains), we present evidence as to how its growth and reproductive success is impaired in the warmer of the two domains. As the future Arctic is predicted to resemble today's Atlantic domains, we forecast changes in growth and life history characteristics of polar cod that will lead to alteration of its role as an Arctic keystone species. This will in turn affect community dynamics and energy transfer in the entire Arctic food chain.

  9. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Northern Rocky Mountains [Part 2

    Treesearch

    Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; S. Karen Dante-Wood; Linh Hoang; Joanne J. Ho; Linda A. Joyce

    2018-01-01

    The Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership (NRAP) identified climate change issues relevant to resource management in the Northern Rockies (USA) region, and developed solutions intended to minimize negative effects of climate change and facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. The NRAP region covers 183 million acres, spanning northern Idaho,...

  10. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Northern Rocky Mountains [Part 1

    Treesearch

    Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; S. Karen Dante-Wood; Linh Hoang; Joanne J. Ho; Linda A. Joyce

    2018-01-01

    The Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership (NRAP) identified climate change issues relevant to resource management in the Northern Rockies (USA) region, and developed solutions intended to minimize negative effects of climate change and facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. The NRAP region covers 183 million acres, spanning northern Idaho,...

  11. Araucaria growth response to solar and climate variability in South Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prestes, Alan; Klausner, Virginia; Rojahn da Silva, Iuri; Ojeda-González, Arian; Lorensi, Caren

    2018-05-01

    In this work, the Sun-Earth-climate relationship is studied using tree growth rings of Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol.) O. Kuntze collected in the city of Passo Fundo, located in the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS), Brazil. These samples were previously studied by Rigozo et al. (2008); however, their main interest was to search for the solar periodicities in the tree-ring width mean time series without interpreting the rest of the periodicities found. The question arises as to what are the drivers related to those periodicities. For this reason, the classical method of spectral analysis by iterative regression and wavelet methods are applied to find periodicities and trends present in each tree-ring growth, in Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and in annual mean temperature anomaly between the 24 and 44° S. In order to address the aforementioned question, this paper discusses the correlation between the growth rate of the tree rings with temperature and SOI. In each tree-ring growth series, periods between 2 and 7 years were found, possibly related to the El Niño/La Niña phenomena, and a ˜ 23-year period was found, which may be related to temperature variation. These novel results might represent the tree-ring growth response to local climate conditions during its lifetime, and to nonlinear coupling between the Sun and the local climate variability responsible to the regional climate variations.

  12. Quantifying impacts of historical climate change in American River basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sultana, R.

    2017-12-01

    There is a near consensus among scientists that climate has been changing for the last few decades in different parts of the world. Some regions are already experiencing the impacts of these changes. Warmer climate can alter the hydrology and water resources around the globe. Historical data shows the temperature has been rising in California and affecting California's water resource by reducing snowfall and snowmelt runoff during spring season. In this study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to simulate the historical climate in American River basin, a mountainous watershed in California. The results show that warmer climate in the recent decades (1995-2014) have already have affected streamflow characteristics of the watershed. Compared to the 1965-1974, the mean annual streamflow has decreased more than 6% and the peak streamflow has shifted from May to April. Understanding the changes will assist the water resource managers with valuable insight on the effectiveness of mitigation strategies considered as of now.

  13. Changing climate, changing forests: The impacts of climate change on forests of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada

    Treesearch

    Lindsey Rustad; John Campbell; Jeffrey S. Dukes; Thomas Huntington; Kathy Fallon Lambert; Jacqueline Mohan; Nicholas Rodenhouse

    2012-01-01

    Decades of study on climatic change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems provide important insights for forest science, management, and policy. A synthesis of recent research from the northeastern United States and eastern Canada shows that the climate of the region has become warmer and wetter over the past 100 years and that there are more extreme...

  14. Legacy effects of land-use modulate tree growth responses to climate extremes.

    PubMed

    Mausolf, Katharina; Härdtle, Werner; Jansen, Kirstin; Delory, Benjamin M; Hertel, Dietrich; Leuschner, Christoph; Temperton, Vicky M; von Oheimb, Goddert; Fichtner, Andreas

    2018-05-10

    Climate change can impact forest ecosystem processes via individual tree and community responses. While the importance of land-use legacies in modulating these processes have been increasingly recognised, evidence of former land-use mediated climate-growth relationships remain rare. We analysed how differences in former land-use (i.e. forest continuity) affect the growth response of European beech to climate extremes. Here, using dendrochronological and fine root data, we show that ancient forests (forests with a long forest continuity) and recent forests (forests afforested on former farmland) clearly differ with regard to climate-growth relationships. We found that sensitivity to climatic extremes was lower for trees growing in ancient forests, as reflected by significantly lower growth reductions during adverse climatic conditions. Fine root morphology also differed significantly between the former land-use types: on average, trees with high specific root length (SRL) and specific root area (SRA) and low root tissue density (RTD) were associated with recent forests, whereas the opposite traits were characteristic of ancient forests. Moreover, we found that trees of ancient forests hold a larger fine root system than trees of recent forests. Our results demonstrate that land-use legacy-mediated modifications in the size and morphology of the fine root system act as a mechanism in regulating drought resistance of beech, emphasising the need to consider the 'ecological memory' of forests when assessing or predicting the sensitivity of forest ecosystems to global environmental change.

  15. A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; Kebebe, Emebet; Biru, Nigist; White, Libby; Galu, Gideon

    2012-01-01

    This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), examines recent trends in March-June, June-September, and March-September rainfall and temperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in many areas of Ethiopia. Conclusions: * Spring and summer rains in parts of Ethiopia have declined by 15-20 percent since the mid-1970s. * Substantial warming across the entire country has exacerbated the dryness.* An important pattern of observed existing rainfall declines coincides with heavily populated areas of the Rift Valley in south-central Ethiopia, and is likely already adversely affecting crop yields and pasture conditions. * Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a drier, warmer climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Ethiopia during the next 20 years.* Many areas of Ethiopia will maintain moist climate conditions, and agricultural development in these areas could help offset rainfall declines and reduced production in other areas.

  16. Pollution Critical Load Exceedance and an Extended Growing Season as Modulators of Red Spruce Radial Growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kosiba, A. M.; Schaberg, P. G.; Engel, B. J.; Rayback, S. A.; Hawley, G. J.; Pontius, J.; Miller, E. K.

    2016-12-01

    Acidic sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition depletes cations such as calcium (Ca) from forest soils and has been linked to increases in foliar winter injury that led to the decline of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) in the northeastern United States. We used results from a 30 m resolution steady-state S and N critical load exceedance model for New England to better understand the spatial connections between Ca depletion and red spruce productivity. To calculate exceedance, atmospheric deposition was estimated for a 5-year period (1984-1988) because tree health and productivity declines were expected to be most responsive to high acid loading. We examined how radial growth (basal area increment) of 441 dominant and co-dominant red spruce trees from 37 sites across Vermont and New Hampshire was related to modeled estimates of S and N critical load exceedance. We assessed growth using statistical models with exceedance as a source of variation, but which also included "year" and "elevation class" (to help account for climatic variability) and interactions among factors. Exceedance was significantly and negatively associated with mean growth for the study period (1951-2010) overall, and particularly for the 1980s and 2000s - periods of numerous and/or severe foliar winter injury events. However, climate-related sources of variation (year and elevation) accounted for most of the differences in growth over the chronology. Interestingly, recent growth for red spruce is now the highest recorded over our dendrochronological record for the species - suggesting that the factors shaping growth may be changing. Because red spruce is a temperate conifer that has the capacity to photosynthesize year-round, it is possible that warmer temperatures may be extending the functional growing season of the species thereby fostering increased growth. Data from elevational transects on Mount Mansfield (Vermont's tallest mountain) indicate that warmer spring, summer, fall and even winter

  17. Comparison of the performance of battery-operated fluid warmers.

    PubMed

    Lehavi, Amit; Yitzhak, Avraham; Jarassy, Refael; Heizler, Rami; Katz, Yeshayahu Shai; Raz, Aeyal

    2018-06-07

    Warming intravenous fluids is essential to prevent hypothermia in patients with trauma, especially when large volumes are administered. Prehospital and transport settings require fluid warmers to be small, energy efficient and independent of external power supply. We compared the warming properties and resistance to flow of currently available battery-operated fluid warmers. Fluid warming was evaluated at 50, 100 and 200 mL/min at a constant input temperature of 20°C and 10°C using a cardiopulmonary bypass roller pump and cooler. Output temperature was continuously recorded. Performance of fluid warmers varied with flows and input temperatures. At an input temperature of 20°C and flow of 50 mL/min, the Buddy Lite, enFlow, Thermal Angel and Warrior warmed 3.4, 2.4, 1 and 3.6 L to over 35°C, respectively. However, at an input temperature of 10°C and flow of 200 mL/min, the Buddy Lite failed to warm, the enFlow warmed 3.3 L to 25.7°C, the Thermal Angel warmed 1.5 L to 20.9°C and the Warrior warmed 3.4 L to 34.4°C (p<0.0001). We found significant differences between the fluid warmers: the use of the Buddy Lite should be limited to moderate input temperature and low flow rates. The use of the Thermal Angel is limited to low volumes due to battery capacity and low output temperature at extreme conditions. The Warrior provides the best warming performance at high infusion rates, as well as low input temperatures, and was able to warm the largest volumes in these conditions. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  18. Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth.

    PubMed

    Charney, Noah D; Babst, Flurin; Poulter, Benjamin; Record, Sydne; Trouet, Valerie M; Frank, David; Enquist, Brian J; Evans, Margaret E K

    2016-09-01

    Predicting long-term trends in forest growth requires accurate characterisation of how the relationship between forest productivity and climatic stress varies across climatic regimes. Using a network of over two million tree-ring observations spanning North America and a space-for-time substitution methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future forest growth. We explored differing scenarios of increased water-use efficiency (WUE) due to CO2 -fertilisation, which we simulated as increased effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1) climate change negatively impacted forest growth rates in the interior west and positively impacted forest growth along the western, southeastern and northeastern coasts; (2) shifting climate sensitivities offset positive effects of warming on high-latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued 'boreal greening'; and (3) it took a 72% WUE enhancement to compensate for continentally averaged growth declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight the importance of locally adapted forest management strategies to handle regional differences in growth responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  19. Recent climate hiatus revealed dual control by temperature and drought on the stem growth of Mediterranean Quercus ilex.

    PubMed

    Lempereur, Morine; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Guibal, Frédéric; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Rambal, Serge; Ruffault, Julien; Mouillot, Florent

    2017-01-01

    A better understanding of stem growth phenology and its climate drivers would improve projections of the impact of climate change on forest productivity. Under a Mediterranean climate, tree growth is primarily limited by soil water availability during summer, but cold temperatures in winter also prevent tree growth in evergreen forests. In the widespread Mediterranean evergreen tree species Quercus ilex, the duration of stem growth has been shown to predict annual stem increment, and to be limited by winter temperatures on the one hand, and by the summer drought onset on the other hand. We tested how these climatic controls of Q. ilex growth varied with recent climate change by correlating a 40-year tree ring record and a 30-year annual diameter inventory against winter temperature, spring precipitation, and simulated growth duration. Our results showed that growth duration was the best predictor of annual tree growth. We predicted that recent climate changes have resulted in earlier growth onset (-10 days) due to winter warming and earlier growth cessation (-26 days) due to earlier drought onset. These climatic trends partly offset one another, as we observed no significant trend of change in tree growth between 1968 and 2008. A moving-window correlation analysis revealed that in the past, Q. ilex growth was only correlated with water availability, but that since the 2000s, growth suddenly became correlated with winter temperature in addition to spring drought. This change in the climate-growth correlations matches the start of the recent atmospheric warming pause also known as the 'climate hiatus'. The duration of growth of Q. ilex is thus shortened because winter warming has stopped compensating for increasing drought in the last decade. Decoupled trends in precipitation and temperature, a neglected aspect of climate change, might reduce forest productivity through phenological constraints and have more consequences than climate warming alone. © 2016 John

  20. Radial growth of Qilian juniper on the Northeast Tibetan Plateau and potential climate associations.

    PubMed

    Qin, Chun; Yang, Bao; Melvin, Thomas M; Fan, Zexin; Zhao, Yan; Briffa, Keith R

    2013-01-01

    There is controversy regarding the limiting climatic factor for tree radial growth at the alpine treeline on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we collected 594 increment cores from 331 trees, grouped within four altitude belts spanning the range 3550 to 4020 m.a.s.l. on a single hillside. We have developed four equivalent ring-width chronologies and shown that there are no significant differences in their growth-climate responses during 1956 to 2011 or in their longer-term growth patterns during the period AD 1110-2011. The main climate influence on radial growth is shown to be precipitation variability. Missing ring analysis shows that tree radial growth at the uppermost treeline location is more sensitive to climate variation than that at other elevations, and poor tree radial growth is particularly linked to the occurrence of serious drought events. Hence water limitation, rather than temperature stress, plays the pivotal role in controlling the radial growth of Sabina przewalskii Kom. at the treeline in this region. This finding contradicts any generalisation that tree-ring chronologies from high-elevation treeline environments are mostly indicators of temperature changes.

  1. Radial Growth of Qilian Juniper on the Northeast Tibetan Plateau and Potential Climate Associations

    PubMed Central

    Qin, Chun; Yang, Bao; Melvin, Thomas M.; Fan, Zexin; Zhao, Yan; Briffa, Keith R.

    2013-01-01

    There is controversy regarding the limiting climatic factor for tree radial growth at the alpine treeline on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we collected 594 increment cores from 331 trees, grouped within four altitude belts spanning the range 3550 to 4020 m.a.s.l. on a single hillside. We have developed four equivalent ring-width chronologies and shown that there are no significant differences in their growth-climate responses during 1956 to 2011 or in their longer-term growth patterns during the period AD 1110–2011. The main climate influence on radial growth is shown to be precipitation variability. Missing ring analysis shows that tree radial growth at the uppermost treeline location is more sensitive to climate variation than that at other elevations, and poor tree radial growth is particularly linked to the occurrence of serious drought events. Hence water limitation, rather than temperature stress, plays the pivotal role in controlling the radial growth of Sabina przewalskii Kom. at the treeline in this region. This finding contradicts any generalisation that tree-ring chronologies from high-elevation treeline environments are mostly indicators of temperature changes. PMID:24244488

  2. Impact of warmer weather on electricity sector emissions due to building energy use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meier, Paul; Holloway, Tracey; Patz, Jonathan; Harkey, Monica; Ahl, Doug; Abel, David; Schuetter, Scott; Hackel, Scott

    2017-06-01

    Most US energy consumption occurs in buildings, with cooling demands anticipated to increase net building electricity use under warmer conditions. The electricity generation units that respond to this demand are major contributors to sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), both of which have direct impacts on public health, and contribute to the formation of secondary pollutants including ozone and fine particulate matter. This study quantifies temperature-driven changes in power plant emissions due to increased use of building air conditioning. We compare an ambient temperature baseline for the Eastern US to a model-calculated mid-century scenario with summer-average temperature increases ranging from 1 C to 5 C across the domain. We find a 7% increase in summer electricity demand and a 32% increase in non-coincident peak demand. Power sector modeling, assuming only limited changes to current generation resources, calculated a 16% increase in emissions of NOx and an 18% increase in emissions of SO2. There is a high level of regional variance in the response of building energy use to climate, and the response of emissions to associated demand. The East North Central census region exhibited the greatest sensitivity of energy demand and associated emissions to climate.

  3. Recent widespread tree growth decline despite increasing atmospheric CO2.

    PubMed

    Silva, Lucas C R; Anand, Madhur; Leithead, Mark D

    2010-07-21

    The synergetic effects of recent rising atmospheric CO(2) and temperature are expected to favor tree growth in boreal and temperate forests. However, recent dendrochronological studies have shown site-specific unprecedented growth enhancements or declines. The question of whether either of these trends is caused by changes in the atmosphere remains unanswered because dendrochronology alone has not been able to clarify the physiological basis of such trends. Here we combined standard dendrochronological methods with carbon isotopic analysis to investigate whether atmospheric changes enhanced water use efficiency (WUE) and growth of two deciduous and two coniferous tree species along a 9 degrees latitudinal gradient across temperate and boreal forests in Ontario, Canada. Our results show that although trees have had around 53% increases in WUE over the past century, growth decline (measured as a decrease in basal area increment--BAI) has been the prevalent response in recent decades irrespective of species identity and latitude. Since the 1950s, tree BAI was predominantly negatively correlated with warmer climates and/or positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting warming induced water stress. However, where growth declines were not explained by climate, WUE and BAI were linearly and positively correlated, showing that declines are not always attributable to warming induced stress and additional stressors may exist. Our results show an unexpected widespread tree growth decline in temperate and boreal forests due to warming induced stress but are also suggestive of additional stressors. Rising atmospheric CO2 levels during the past century resulted in consistent increases in water use efficiency, but this did not prevent growth decline. These findings challenge current predictions of increasing terrestrial carbon stocks under climate change scenarios.

  4. Comparison of injury incidences between football teams playing in different climatic regions

    PubMed Central

    Orchard, John W; Waldén, Markus; Hägglund, Martin; Orchard, Jessica J; Chivers, Ian; Seward, Hugh; Ekstrand, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Australian Football League (AFL) teams in northern (warmer) areas generally have higher rates of injury than those in southern (cooler) areas. Conversely, in soccer (football) in Europe, teams in northern (cooler) areas have higher rates of injury than those in southern (warmer) areas, with an exception being knee anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries, which are more common in the southern (warmer) parts of Europe. This study examined relative injury incidence in the AFL comparing 9,477 injuries over 229,827 player-weeks from 1999–2012. There was a slightly higher injury incidence for teams from warmer parts of Australia (relative risk [RR] 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01–1.10) with quadriceps strains (RR 1.32, 95% CI 1.10–1.58), knee cartilage injuries (RR 1.42, 95% CI 1.16–1.74), and ankle sprains (RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.00–1.37) all being more likely in warmer region teams. Achilles injuries followed a reverse pattern, tending to be more common in cooler region teams (RR 0.70, 95% CI 0.47–1.03). In conclusion, common findings from the AFL and European soccer are that ankle sprains and ACL injuries are generally more likely in teams playing in warmer climate zones, whereas Achilles tendinopathy may be more likely in teams playing in cooler zones. These injuries may have climate or surface risk factors (possibly related to types and structure of grass and shoe-surface traction) that are universal across different football codes. PMID:24379731

  5. The Impact of Urban Growth and Climate Change on Heat Stress in an Australian City

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chapman, S.; Mcalpine, C. A.; Thatcher, M. J.; Salazar, A.; Watson, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    Over half of the world's population lives in urban areas. Most people will therefore be exposed to climate change in an urban environment. One of the climate risks facing urban residents is heat stress, which can lead to illness and death. Urban residents are at increased risk of heat stress due to the urban heat island effect. The urban heat island is a modification of the urban environment and increases temperatures on average by 2°C, though the increase can be much higher, up to 8°C when wind speeds and cloud cover are low. The urban heat island is also expected to increase in the future due to urban growth and intensification, further exacerbating urban heat stress. Climate change alters the urban heat island due to changes in weather (wind speed and cloudiness) and evapotranspiration. Future urban heat stress will therefore be affected by urban growth and climate change. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of urban growth and climate change on the urban heat island and heat stress in Brisbane, Australia. We used CCAM, the conformal cubic atmospheric model developed by the CSIRO, to examine temperatures in Brisbane using scenarios of urban growth and climate change. We downscaled the urban climate using CCAM, based on bias corrected Sea Surface Temperatures from the ACCESS1.0 projection of future climate. We used Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the periods 1990 - 2000, 2049 - 2060 and 2089 - 2090 with current land use and an urban growth scenario. The present day climatology was verified using weather station data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. We compared the urban heat island of the present day with the urban heat island with climate change to determine if climate change altered the heat island. We also calculated heat stress using wet-bulb globe temperature and apparent temperature for the climate change and base case scenarios. We found the urban growth scenario increased present day temperatures by 0.5°C in the

  6. Sensitivity of ring growth and carbon allocation to climatic variation vary within ponderosa pine trees.

    PubMed

    Kerhoulas, Lucy P; Kane, Jeffrey M

    2012-01-01

    Most dendrochronological studies focus on cores sampled from standard positions (main stem, breast height), yet vertical gradients in hydraulic constraints and priorities for carbon allocation may contribute to different growth sensitivities with position. Using cores taken from five positions (coarse roots, breast height, base of live crown, mid-crown branch and treetop), we investigated how radial growth sensitivity to climate over the period of 1895-2008 varies by position within 36 large ponderosa pines (Pinus ponderosa Dougl.) in northern Arizona. The climate parameters investigated were Palmer Drought Severity Index, water year and monsoon precipitation, maximum annual temperature, minimum annual temperature and average annual temperature. For each study tree, we generated Pearson correlation coefficients between ring width indices from each position and six climate parameters. We also investigated whether the number of missing rings differed among positions and bole heights. We found that tree density did not significantly influence climatic sensitivity to any of the climate parameters investigated at any of the sample positions. Results from three types of analyses suggest that climatic sensitivity of tree growth varied with position height: (i) correlations of radial growth and climate variables consistently increased with height; (ii) model strength based on Akaike's information criterion increased with height, where treetop growth consistently had the highest sensitivity and coarse roots the lowest sensitivity to each climatic parameter; and (iii) the correlation between bole ring width indices decreased with distance between positions. We speculate that increased sensitivity to climate at higher positions is related to hydraulic limitation because higher positions experience greater xylem tensions due to gravitational effects that render these positions more sensitive to climatic stresses. The low sensitivity of root growth to all climatic variables

  7. Winter and spring climatic conditions influence timing and synchrony of calving in reindeer.

    PubMed

    Paoli, Amélie; Weladji, Robert B; Holand, Øystein; Kumpula, Jouko

    2018-01-01

    In a context of climate change, a mismatch has been shown to occur between some species' reproductive phenology and their environment. So far, few studies have either documented temporal trends in calving phenology or assessed which climatic variables influence the calving phenology in ungulate species, yet the phenology of ungulates' births affects offspring survival and population's recruitment rate. Using a long-term dataset (45 years) of birth dates of a semi-domesticated reindeer population in Kaamanen, North Finland, we show that calving season has advanced by ~ 7 days between 1970 and 2016. Advanced birth dates were associated with lower precipitation and a reduced snow cover in April and warmer temperatures in April-May. Improved females' physical condition in late gestation due to warmer temperatures in April-May and reduced snow conditions in April probably accounted for such advance in calving date. On the other hand, a lengthening of the calving season was reported following a warmer temperature in January, a higher number of days when mean temperature exceeds 0°C in October-November and a decreasing snow cover from October to November. By affecting the inter-individual heterogeneity in the plastic response of females' calving date to better climatic conditions in fall and winter, climatic variability contributed to weaken the calving synchrony in this herd. Whether variability in climatic conditions form environmental cues for the adaptation of calving phenology by females to climate change is however uncertain, but it is likely. As such this study enhances our understanding on how reproductive phenology of ungulate species would be affected by climate change.

  8. Effects of climate on growth traits of river red gum are determined by respiration parameters

    Treesearch

    Richard S. Criddle; Thimmappa S. Anekonda; Sharon Tong; John N. Church; F. Thomas Ledig; Lee D. Hansen

    2000-01-01

    Temperature is the major uncontrollable climate variable in plantation forestry. Matching plants to climate is essential for optimizing growth. Matching is usually done with field trials because of the lack of a predictive relation between laboratory measurements of physiological responses and climatic factors affecting growth. This paper evaluates the potential of...

  9. Who is the new sheriff in town regulating boreal forest growth?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park Williams, A.; Xu, Chonggang; McDowell, Nate G.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change appears to be altering boreal forests. One recently observed symptom of these changes has been an apparent weakening of the positive relationship between high-latitude boreal tree growth and temperature at some sites (D'Arrigo et al 2008). This phenomenon is referred to as the 'divergence problem' or 'divergence effect' and is thought to reflect a non-linear relationship between temperature and tree growth, where recent warming has allowed other factors besides growing-season temperature to emerge as dominant regulators of annual growth rates. Figure 1 demonstrates this divergence phenomenon with records of tree-ring widths collected from 59 populations of white spruce in Alaska 1. Key tendencies among these populations include: (1) growth is most sensitive to temperature during relatively cold growing seasons (figure 1(a)), (2) populations at colder sites are more sensitive to temperature than those at warmer sites are (figure 1(a)), and (3) growth at warmer sites may respond negatively to increased temperature beyond some optimal growing-season temperature (figure 1(b)). Since temperature is rising rapidly at high latitudes, one interpretation of figures 1(a) and (b) is that warming has promoted increased growth at colder sites, but caused growth to plateau or slow at warmer sites. Corroborating this interpretation, satellite imagery and tree-ring data indicate increasing vegetation productivity near the forest-tundra boundary but declining productivity in warmer regions within forest interiors (e.g., Bunn and Goetz 2006, Beck and Goetz 2011, Beck et al 2011, Berner et al 2011). Will continued warming cause a northward migration of boreal forests, with mortality in the warmer, southern locations and expansion into the colder tundra? This question is difficult to answer because many factors besides temperature influence boreal forest dynamics. Widespread productivity declines within interior boreal forests appear to be related to warming

  10. Interspecific variation in growth responses to climate and competition of five eastern tree species.

    PubMed

    Rollinson, Christine R; Kaye, Margot W; Canham, Charles D

    2016-04-01

    Climate and competition are often presented from two opposing views of the dominant driver of individual tree growth and species distribution in temperate forests, such as those in the eastern United States. Previous studies have provided abundant evidence indicating that both factors influence tree growth, and we argue that these effects are not independent of one another and rather that interactions between climate, competition, and size best describe tree growth. To illustrate this point, we describe the growth responses of five common eastern tree species to interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, competition, and individual size using maximum likelihood estimation. Models that explicitly include interactions among these four factors explained over half of the variance in annual growth for four out of five species using annual climate. Expanding temperature and precipitation analyses to include seasonal interactions resulted in slightly improved models with a mean R2 of 0.61 (SD 0.10). Growth responses to individual factors as well their interactions varied greatly among species. For example, growth sensitivity to temperature for Quercus rubra increased with maximum annual precipitation, but other species showed no change in sensitivity or slightly reduced annual growth. Our results also indicate that three-way interactions among individual stem size, competition, and temperature may determine which of the five co-occurring species in our study could have the highest growth rate in a given year. Continued consideration and quantification of interactions among climate, competition, and individual-based characteristics are likely to increase understanding of key biological processes such as tree growth. Greater parameterization of interactions between traditionally segregated factors such as climate and competition may also help build a framework to reconcile drivers of individual-based processes such as growth with larger-scale patterns of species

  11. Climate Controls on Tree Growth Across Species and Sites in Northeastern Arizona

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwan, M. R.; Guiterman, C. H.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding how forests will respond to ongoing climate change is important for conservation and resource management. Conifer forests in the US Southwest are predicted to be particularly at risk from increased drought and higher temperatures projected to occur in the region. Tree-ring studies shed light on how trees respond to climate, but there remains considerable uncertainty as to which climate factors are most important, and which species are most at risk. Confounding climate and environmental factors, biological differences among species, and biogeography often complicate cross-species analysis. Here we present a multi-species, multivariate analysis of tree growth response to climate variability. We analyze data from three coexisting conifer tree species at two sites near Canyon de Chelly, Arizona. We use a high-resolution PRISM gridded climate dataset to determine the growth responses across species and sites to temperature and precipitation. We identify both common and differential responses in our data and use these to infer possible risks these forest communities may face under a changing climate.

  12. Climate dependency of tree growth suppressed by acid deposition effects on soils in Northwest Russia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lawrence, G.B.; Lapenis, A.G.; Berggren, D.; Aparin, B.F.; Smith, K.T.; Shortle, W.C.; Bailey, S.W.; Varlyguin, D.L.; Babikov, B.

    2005-01-01

    Increased tree growth in temperate and boreal forests has been proposed as a direct consequence of a warming climate. Acid deposition effects on nutrient availability may influence the climate dependency of tree growth, however. This study presents an analysis of archived soil samples that has enabled changes in soil chemistry to be tracked with patterns of tree growth through the 20th century. Soil samples collected in 1926, 1964, and 2001, near St. Petersburg, Russia, showed that acid deposition was likely to have decreased root-available concentrations of Ca (an essential element) and increased root-available concentrations of Al (an inhibitor of Ca uptake). These soil changes coincided with decreased diameter growth and a suppression of climate-tree growth relationships in Norway spruce. Expected increases in tree growth from climate warming may be limited by decreased soil fertility in regions of northern and eastern Europe, and eastern North America, where Ca availability has been reduced by acidic deposition. ?? 2005 American Chemical Society.

  13. Climate dependency of tree growth suppressed by acid deposition effects on soils in northwest Russia.

    PubMed

    Lawrence, Gregory B; Lapenis, Andrei G; Berggren, Dan; Aparin, Boris F; Smith, Kevin T; Shortle, Walter C; Bailey, Scott W; Varlyguin, Dmitry L; Babikov, Boris

    2005-04-01

    Increased tree growth in temperate and boreal forests has been proposed as a direct consequence of a warming climate. Acid deposition effects on nutrient availability may influence the climate dependency of tree growth, however. This study presents an analysis of archived soil samples that has enabled changes in soil chemistry to be tracked with patterns of tree growth through the 20th century. Soil samples collected in 1926, 1964, and 2001, near St. Petersburg, Russia, showed that acid deposition was likely to have decreased root-available concentrations of Ca (an essential element) and increased root-available concentrations of Al (an inhibitor of Ca uptake). These soil changes coincided with decreased diameter growth and a suppression of climate-tree growth relationships in Norway spruce. Expected increases in tree growth from climate warming may be limited by decreased soil fertility in regions of northern and eastern Europe, and eastern North America, where Ca availability has been reduced by acidic deposition.

  14. Impact of Future Climate on Radial Growth of Four Major Boreal Tree Species in the Eastern Canadian Boreal Forest

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Jian-Guo; Bergeron, Yves; Berninger, Frank; Zhai, Lihong; Tardif, Jacques C.; Denneler, Bernhard

    2013-01-01

    Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010–2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

  15. Impact of future climate on radial growth of four major boreal tree species in the Eastern Canadian boreal forest.

    PubMed

    Huang, Jian-Guo; Bergeron, Yves; Berninger, Frank; Zhai, Lihong; Tardif, Jacques C; Denneler, Bernhard

    2013-01-01

    Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010-2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

  16. Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baatsen, Michiel; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Van Delden, Aarnout J.; de Vries, Hylke

    2015-08-01

    Simulations with a very high resolution (~25 km) global climate model indicate that more severe Autumn storms will impact Europe in a warmer future climate. The observed increase is mainly attributed to storms with a tropical origin, especially in the later part of the twentyfirst century. As their genesis region expands, tropical cyclones become more intense and their chances of reaching Europe increase. This paper investigates the properties and evolution of such storms and clarifies the future changes. The studied tropical cyclones feature a typical evolution of tropical development, extratropical transition and a re-intensification. A reduction of the transit area between regions of tropical and extratropical cyclogenesis increases the probability of re-intensification. Many of the modelled storms exhibit hybrid properties in a considerable part of their life cycle during which they exhibit the hazards of both tropical and extratropical systems. In addition to tropical cyclones, other systems such as cold core extratropical storms mainly originating over the Gulf Stream region also increasingly impact Western Europe. Despite their different history, all of the studied storms have one striking similarity: they form a warm seclusion. The structure, intensity and frequency of storms in the present climate are compared to observations using the MERRA and IBTrACS datasets. Damaging winds associated with the occurrence of a sting jet are observed in a large fraction of the cyclones during their final stage. Baroclinic instability is of great importance for the (re-)intensification of the storms. Furthermore, so-called atmospheric rivers providing tropical air prove to be vital for the intensification through diabatic heating and will increase considerably in strength in the future, as will the associated flooding risks.

  17. Correlation analysis of tree growth, climate, and acid deposition in the Lake States.

    Treesearch

    Margaret R. Holdaway

    1990-01-01

    Describes research designed to detect subtle regional tree growth trends related to sulfate (SO4) deposition in the Lake States. Correlation methods were used to analyze climatic and SO4 deposition. Effects of SO4 deposition are greater on climatically stressed trees, especially pine species on dry sites, than on unstressed trees. Jack pine growth shows the...

  18. Convergent acclimation of leaf photosynthesis and respiration to prevailing ambient temperatures under current and warmer climates in Eucalyptus tereticornis.

    PubMed

    Aspinwall, Michael J; Drake, John E; Campany, Courtney; Vårhammar, Angelica; Ghannoum, Oula; Tissue, David T; Reich, Peter B; Tjoelker, Mark G

    2016-10-01

    Understanding physiological acclimation of photosynthesis and respiration is important in elucidating the metabolic performance of trees in a changing climate. Does physiological acclimation to climate warming mirror acclimation to seasonal temperature changes? We grew Eucalyptus tereticornis trees in the field for 14 months inside 9-m tall whole-tree chambers tracking ambient air temperature (Tair ) or ambient Tair  + 3°C (i.e. 'warmed'). We measured light- and CO2 -saturated net photosynthesis (Amax ) and night-time dark respiration (R) each month at 25°C to quantify acclimation. Tree growth was measured, and leaf nitrogen (N) and total nonstructural carbohydrate (TNC) concentrations were determined to investigate mechanisms of acclimation. Warming reduced Amax and R measured at 25°C compared to ambient-grown trees. Both traits also declined as mean daily Tair increased, and did so in a similar way across temperature treatments. Amax and R (at 25°C) both increased as TNC concentrations increased seasonally; these relationships appeared to arise from source-sink imbalances, suggesting potential substrate regulation of thermal acclimation. We found that photosynthesis and respiration each acclimated equivalently to experimental warming and seasonal temperature change of a similar magnitude, reflecting a common, nearly homeostatic constraint on leaf carbon exchange that will be important in governing tree responses to climate warming. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

  19. Dynamic size responses to climate change: prevailing effects of rising temperature drive long-term body size increases in a semi-arid passerine.

    PubMed

    Gardner, Janet L; Amano, Tatsuya; Mackey, Brendan G; Sutherland, William J; Clayton, Mark; Peters, Anne

    2014-07-01

    Changes in animal body size have been widely reported as a correlate of contemporary climate change. Body size affects metabolism and fitness, so changing size has implications for resilience, yet the climatic factors that drive size variation remain poorly understood. We test the role of mean and extreme temperature, rainfall, and remotely sensed primary productivity (NDVI) as drivers of body size in a sedentary, semi-arid Australian passerine, Ptilotula (Lichenostomus)penicillatus, over 23 years. To distinguish effects due to differential growth from changes in population composition, we analysed first-year birds and adults separately and considered climatic variation at three temporal scales (current, previous, and preceding 5 years). The strongest effects related to temperature: in both age classes, larger size was associated with warmer mean temperatures in the previous year, contrary to Bergmann's Rule. Moreover, adults were larger in warmer breeding seasons, while first years was larger after heat waves; these effects are more likely to be mediated through size-dependent mortality, highlighting the role of body size in determining vulnerability to extinction. In addition to temperature, larger adult size was associated with lower primary productivity, which may reflect a trade-off between vegetative growth and nectar production, on which adults rely. Finally, lower rainfall was associated with decreasing size in first year and adults, most likely related to decreased food availability. Overall,body size increased over 23 years, strongly in first-year birds (2.7%) compared with adults (1%), with size outcomes a balance between competing drivers. As rainfall declined over time and productivity remained fairly stable, the temporal increase in body size appears largely driven by rising mean temperature and temperature extremes. Body size responses to environmental change are thus complex and dynamic, driven by effects on growth as well as mortality.

  20. Forced-Air Warmers and Surgical Site Infections in Patients Undergoing Knee or Hip Arthroplasty.

    PubMed

    Austin, Paul N

    2017-01-01

    The majority of the evidence indicates preventing inadvertent perioperative hypothermia reduces the incidence of many perioperative complications. Among the results of inadvertent perioperative hypothermia are increased bleeding, myocardial events, impaired wound healing, and diminished renal function. Most researchers agree there is an increased incidence of surgical site infections in patients who experience inadvertent perioperative hypothermia. Forced-air warming is effective in preventing inadvertent perioperative hypothermia. Paradoxically, forced-air warmers have been implicated in causing surgical site infections in patients undergoing total knee or hip arthroplasty. The results of investigations suggest these devices harbor pathogens and cause unwanted airflow disturbances. However, no significant increases in bacterial counts were found when forced-air warmers were used according to the manufacturer's directions. The results of one study suggested the incidence of surgical site infections in patients undergoing total joint arthroplasty was increased when using a forced-air warmer. However these researchers did not control for other factors affecting the incidence of surgical site infections in these patients. Current evidence does not support forced-air warmers causing surgical site infections in patients undergoing total knee or hip arthroplasty. Clinicians must use and maintain these devices as per the manufacturer's directions. They may consider using alternative warming methods. Well-conducted studies are needed to help determine the role of forced-air warmers in causing infections in these patients.

  1. Warmer, deeper, and greener mixed layers in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre over the last 50 years.

    PubMed

    Martinez, Elodie; Raitsos, Dionysios E; Antoine, David

    2016-02-01

    Shifts in global climate resonate in plankton dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, and marine food webs. We studied these linkages in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASG), which hosts extensive phytoplankton blooms. We show that phytoplankton abundance increased since the 1960s in parallel to a deepening of the mixed layer and a strengthening of winds and heat losses from the ocean, as driven by the low frequency of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In parallel to these bottom-up processes, the top-down control of phytoplankton by copepods decreased over the same time period in the western NASG, following sea surface temperature changes typical of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). While previous studies have hypothesized that climate-driven warming would facilitate seasonal stratification of surface waters and long-term phytoplankton increase in subpolar regions, here we show that deeper mixed layers in the NASG can be warmer and host a higher phytoplankton biomass. These results emphasize that different modes of climate variability regulate bottom-up (NAO control) and top-down (AMO control) forcing on phytoplankton at decadal timescales. As a consequence, different relationships between phytoplankton, zooplankton, and their physical environment appear subject to the disparate temporal scale of the observations (seasonal, interannual, or decadal). The prediction of phytoplankton response to climate change should be built upon what is learnt from observations at the longest timescales. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Effects of climate change on plant population growth rate and community composition change.

    PubMed

    Chang, Xiao-Yu; Chen, Bao-Ming; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiao-Rong; Peng, Shao-Lin

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades) based on long-term monitoring data from two plots-Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR) and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI)-that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change.

  3. Forests synchronize their growth in contrasting Eurasian regions in response to climate warming.

    PubMed

    Shestakova, Tatiana A; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Kirdyanov, Alexander V; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Génova, Mar; Knorre, Anastasia A; Linares, Juan Carlos; Resco de Dios, Víctor; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Voltas, Jordi

    2016-01-19

    Forests play a key role in the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. One of the main uncertainties in global change predictions lies in how the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest productivity will be affected by climate warming. Here we show an increasing influence of climate on the spatial variability of tree growth during the last 120 y, ultimately leading to unprecedented temporal coherence in ring-width records over wide geographical scales (spatial synchrony). Synchrony in growth patterns across cold-constrained (central Siberia) and drought-constrained (Spain) Eurasian conifer forests have peaked in the early 21st century at subcontinental scales (∼ 1,000 km). Such enhanced synchrony is similar to that observed in trees co-occurring within a stand. In boreal forests, the combined effects of recent warming and increasing intensity of climate extremes are enhancing synchrony through an earlier start of wood formation and a stronger impact of year-to-year fluctuations of growing-season temperatures on growth. In Mediterranean forests, the impact of warming on synchrony is related mainly to an advanced onset of growth and the strengthening of drought-induced growth limitations. Spatial patterns of enhanced synchrony represent early warning signals of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems at subcontinental scales.

  4. Forests synchronize their growth in contrasting Eurasian regions in response to climate warming

    PubMed Central

    Shestakova, Tatiana A.; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Kirdyanov, Alexander V.; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Génova, Mar; Knorre, Anastasia A.; Linares, Juan Carlos; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Voltas, Jordi

    2016-01-01

    Forests play a key role in the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. One of the main uncertainties in global change predictions lies in how the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest productivity will be affected by climate warming. Here we show an increasing influence of climate on the spatial variability of tree growth during the last 120 y, ultimately leading to unprecedented temporal coherence in ring-width records over wide geographical scales (spatial synchrony). Synchrony in growth patterns across cold-constrained (central Siberia) and drought-constrained (Spain) Eurasian conifer forests have peaked in the early 21st century at subcontinental scales (∼1,000 km). Such enhanced synchrony is similar to that observed in trees co-occurring within a stand. In boreal forests, the combined effects of recent warming and increasing intensity of climate extremes are enhancing synchrony through an earlier start of wood formation and a stronger impact of year-to-year fluctuations of growing-season temperatures on growth. In Mediterranean forests, the impact of warming on synchrony is related mainly to an advanced onset of growth and the strengthening of drought-induced growth limitations. Spatial patterns of enhanced synchrony represent early warning signals of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems at subcontinental scales. PMID:26729860

  5. Tree growth-climate relationships in a forest-plot network on Mediterranean mountains.

    PubMed

    Fyllas, Nikolaos M; Christopoulou, Anastasia; Galanidis, Alexandros; Michelaki, Chrysanthi Z; Dimitrakopoulos, Panayiotis G; Fulé, Peter Z; Arianoutsou, Margarita

    2017-11-15

    In this study we analysed a novel tree-growth dataset, inferred from annual ring-width measurements, of 7 forest tree species from 12 mountain regions in Greece, in order to identify tree growth - climate relationships. The tree species of interest were: Abies cephalonica, Abies borisii-regis, Picea abies, Pinus nigra, Pinus sylvestris, Fagus sylvatica and Quercus frainetto growing across a gradient of climate conditions with mean annual temperature ranging from 5.7 to 12.6°C and total annual precipitation from 500 to 950mm. In total, 344 tree cores (one per tree) were analysed across a network of 20 study sites. We found that water availability during the summer period (May-August) was a strong predictor of interannual variation in tree growth for all study species. Across species and sites, annual tree growth was positively related to summer season precipitation (P SP ). The responsiveness of annual growth to P SP was tightly related to species and site specific measurements of instantaneous photosynthetic water use efficiency (WUE), suggesting that the growth of species with efficient water use is more responsive to variations in precipitation during the dry months of the year. Our findings support the importance of water availability for the growth of mountainous Mediterranean tree species and highlight that future reductions in precipitation are likely to lead to reduced tree-growth under climate change conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Post Milestone B Funding Climate and Cost Growth in Major Defense Acquisition Programs

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-03-01

    by P-5126 supposes that most of the growth in unit cost shown by programs that pass MS B in a bust funding climate is “ baked into” the baselines...that most of the growth in unit cost shown by programs that pass MS B in a bust funding climate is “ baked into” the baselines established at MS B

  7. Climate interacts with soil to produce beta diversity in Californian plant communities.

    PubMed

    Fernandez-Going, B M; Harrison, S P; Anacker, B L; Safford, H D

    2013-09-01

    Spatially distinct communities can arise through interactions and feedbacks between abiotic and biotic factors. We suggest that, for plants, patches of infertile soils such as serpentine may support more distinct communities from those in the surrounding non-serpentine matrix in regions where the climate is more productive (i.e., warmer and/or wetter). Where both soil fertility and climatic productivity are high, communities may be dominated by plants with fast-growing functional traits, whereas where either soils or climate impose low productivity, species with stress-tolerant functional traits may predominate. As a result, both species and functional composition may show higher dissimilarity between patch and matrix in productive climates. This pattern may be reinforced by positive feedbacks, in which higher plant growth under favorable climate and soil conditions leads to higher soil fertility, further enhancing plant growth. For 96 pairs of sites across a 200-km latitudinal gradient in California, we found that the species and functional dissimilarities between communities on infertile serpentine and fertile non-serpentine soils were higher in more productive (wetter) regions. Woody species had more stress-tolerant functional traits on serpentine than non-serpentine soil, and as rainfall increased, woody species functional composition changed toward fast-growing traits on non-serpentine, but not on serpentine soils. Soil organic matter increased with rainfall, but only on non-serpentine soils, and the difference in organic matter between soils was positively correlated with plant community dissimilarity. These results illustrate a novel mechanism wherein climatic productivity is associated with higher species, functional, and landscape-level dissimilarity (beta diversity).

  8. Pressure Infusion Cuff and Blood Warmer during Massive Transfusion: An Experimental Study About Hemolysis and Hypothermia.

    PubMed

    Poder, Thomas G; Pruneau, Denise; Dorval, Josée; Thibault, Louis; Fisette, Jean-François; Bédard, Suzanne K; Jacques, Annie; Beauregard, Patrice

    2016-01-01

    Blood warmers were developed to reduce the risk of hypothermia associated with the infusion of cold blood products. During massive transfusion, these devices are used with compression sleeve, which induce a major stress to red blood cells. In this setting, the combination of blood warmer and compression sleeve could generate hemolysis and harm the patient. We conducted this study to compare the impact of different pressure rates on the hemolysis of packed red blood cells and on the outlet temperature when a blood warmer set at 41.5°C is used. Pressure rates tested were 150 and 300 mmHg. Ten packed red blood cells units were provided by Héma-Québec and each unit was sequentially tested. We found no increase in hemolysis either at 150 or 300 mmHg. By cons, we found that the blood warmer was not effective at warming the red blood cells at the specified temperature. At 150 mmHg, the outlet temperature reached 37.1°C and at 300 mmHg, the temperature was 33.7°C. To use a blood warmer set at 41.5°C in conjunction with a compression sleeve at 150 or 300 mmHg does not generate hemolysis. At 300 mmHg a blood warmer set at 41.5°C does not totally avoid a risk of hypothermia.

  9. Water temperature and fish growth: otoliths predict growth patterns of a marine fish in a changing climate.

    PubMed

    Rountrey, Adam N; Coulson, Peter G; Meeuwig, Jessica J; Meekan, Mark

    2014-08-01

    Ecological modeling shows that even small, gradual changes in body size in a fish population can have large effects on natural mortality, biomass, and catch. However, efforts to model the impact of climate change on fish growth have been hampered by a lack of long-term (multidecadal) data needed to understand the effects of temperature on growth rates in natural environments. We used a combination of dendrochronology techniques and additive mixed-effects modeling to examine the sensitivity of growth in a long-lived (up to 70 years), endemic marine fish, the western blue groper (Achoerodus gouldii), to changes in water temperature. A multi-decadal biochronology (1952-2003) of growth was constructed from the otoliths of 56 fish collected off the southwestern coast of Western Australia, and we tested for correlations between the mean index chronology and a range of potential environmental drivers. The chronology was significantly correlated with sea surface temperature in the region, but common variance among individuals was low. This suggests that this species has been relatively insensitive to past variations in climate. Growth increment and age data were also used in an additive mixed model to predict otolith growth and body size later this century. Although growth was relatively insensitive to changes in temperature, the model results suggested that a fish aged 20 in 2099 would have an otolith about 10% larger and a body size about 5% larger than a fish aged 20 in 1977. Our study shows that species or populations regarded as relatively insensitive to climate change could still undergo significant changes in growth rate and body size that are likely to have important effects on the productivity and yield of fisheries. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Breeding crops for improved mineral nutrition under climate change conditions.

    PubMed

    Pilbeam, David J

    2015-06-01

    Improvements in understanding how climate change may influence chemical and physical processes in soils, how this may affect nutrient availability, and how plants may respond to changed availability of nutrients will influence crop breeding programmes. The effects of increased atmospheric CO2 and warmer temperatures, both individually and combined, on soil microbial activity, including mycorrhizas and N-fixing organisms, are evaluated, together with their implications for nutrient availability. Potential changes to plant growth, and the combined effects of soil and plant changes on nutrient uptake, are discussed. The organization of research on the efficient use of macro- and micronutrients by crops under climate change conditions is outlined, including analysis of QTLs for nutrient efficiency. Suggestions for how the information gained can be used in plant breeding programmes are given. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Winter and spring climatic conditions influence timing and synchrony of calving in reindeer

    PubMed Central

    Paoli, Amélie; Holand, Øystein; Kumpula, Jouko

    2018-01-01

    In a context of climate change, a mismatch has been shown to occur between some species’ reproductive phenology and their environment. So far, few studies have either documented temporal trends in calving phenology or assessed which climatic variables influence the calving phenology in ungulate species, yet the phenology of ungulates’ births affects offspring survival and population’s recruitment rate. Using a long-term dataset (45 years) of birth dates of a semi-domesticated reindeer population in Kaamanen, North Finland, we show that calving season has advanced by ~ 7 days between 1970 and 2016. Advanced birth dates were associated with lower precipitation and a reduced snow cover in April and warmer temperatures in April-May. Improved females’ physical condition in late gestation due to warmer temperatures in April-May and reduced snow conditions in April probably accounted for such advance in calving date. On the other hand, a lengthening of the calving season was reported following a warmer temperature in January, a higher number of days when mean temperature exceeds 0°C in October-November and a decreasing snow cover from October to November. By affecting the inter-individual heterogeneity in the plastic response of females’ calving date to better climatic conditions in fall and winter, climatic variability contributed to weaken the calving synchrony in this herd. Whether variability in climatic conditions form environmental cues for the adaptation of calving phenology by females to climate change is however uncertain, but it is likely. As such this study enhances our understanding on how reproductive phenology of ungulate species would be affected by climate change. PMID:29694410

  12. Assessing Potential Climate Change Effects on Loblolly Pine Growth: A Probabilistic Regional Modeling Approach

    Treesearch

    Peter B. Woodbury; James E. Smith; David A. Weinstein; John A. Laurence

    1998-01-01

    Most models of the potential effects of climate change on forest growth have produced deterministic predictions. However, there are large uncertainties in data on regional forest condition, estimates of future climate, and quantitative relationships between environmental conditions and forest growth rate. We constructed a new model to analyze these uncertainties...

  13. Experimental Study of Isothermal Plate Uniformity for Blood Warmer Development using Geothermal Energy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hendrarsakti, J.; Ichsan, Y.

    2016-09-01

    This research was conducted to assess the direct use of geothermal energy for blood warmer. The heating plate was made form aluminium plates with dimensions of 100 x 200 mm and then fed from the hot water heater. Tests were conducted in the laboratory where geothermal source water is replaced with the heat generated from the heater. The hot water from the heater in the temperature range 55°C - 60°C flowed into vertical chamber. Setting the temperature of the hot water heater is done by changing the flow of hot water coming out of the heater. Results showed that the value of a standard deviation of plate temperature was about 0.42 °C, so it can be said isothermal accordance with design requirement and objective. The test data used for the analysis of the manufacture of the heating plate in the blood warmer to regulate the discharge of hot water at intervals of 21.47 mL/s to 24.8 mL/s to obtain a temperature of 37.20 °C - 40.15 °C. Geothermal energy has the potential for blood warmer because blood warmer is part of the energy cascade in a temperature range of 40°C to 60°C

  14. Recent Widespread Tree Growth Decline Despite Increasing Atmospheric CO2

    PubMed Central

    Silva, Lucas C. R.; Anand, Madhur; Leithead, Mark D.

    2010-01-01

    Background The synergetic effects of recent rising atmospheric CO2 and temperature are expected to favor tree growth in boreal and temperate forests. However, recent dendrochronological studies have shown site-specific unprecedented growth enhancements or declines. The question of whether either of these trends is caused by changes in the atmosphere remains unanswered because dendrochronology alone has not been able to clarify the physiological basis of such trends. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we combined standard dendrochronological methods with carbon isotopic analysis to investigate whether atmospheric changes enhanced water use efficiency (WUE) and growth of two deciduous and two coniferous tree species along a 9° latitudinal gradient across temperate and boreal forests in Ontario, Canada. Our results show that although trees have had around 53% increases in WUE over the past century, growth decline (measured as a decrease in basal area increment – BAI) has been the prevalent response in recent decades irrespective of species identity and latitude. Since the 1950s, tree BAI was predominantly negatively correlated with warmer climates and/or positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting warming induced water stress. However, where growth declines were not explained by climate, WUE and BAI were linearly and positively correlated, showing that declines are not always attributable to warming induced stress and additional stressors may exist. Conclusions Our results show an unexpected widespread tree growth decline in temperate and boreal forests due to warming induced stress but are also suggestive of additional stressors. Rising atmospheric CO2 levels during the past century resulted in consistent increases in water use efficiency, but this did not prevent growth decline. These findings challenge current predictions of increasing terrestrial carbon stocks under climate change scenarios. PMID:20657763

  15. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling.

    PubMed

    Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K; Murphy, Lora

    2018-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here, we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured interannual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including aboveground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate. © 2017 John

  16. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha C.; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Murphy, Lora

    2018-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

  17. The growth of finfish in global open-ocean aquaculture under climate change.

    PubMed

    Klinger, Dane H; Levin, Simon A; Watson, James R

    2017-10-11

    Aquaculture production is projected to expand from land-based operations to the open ocean as demand for seafood grows and competition increases for inputs to land-based aquaculture, such as freshwater and suitable land. In contrast to land-based production, open-ocean aquaculture is constrained by oceanographic factors, such as current speeds and seawater temperature, which are dynamic in time and space, and cannot easily be controlled. As such, the potential for offshore aquaculture to increase seafood production is tied to the physical state of the oceans. We employ a novel spatial model to estimate the potential of open-ocean finfish aquaculture globally, given physical, biological and technological constraints. Finfish growth potential for three common aquaculture species representing different thermal guilds-Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ), gilthead seabream ( Sparus aurata ) and cobia ( Rachycentron canadum )-is compared across species and regions and with climate change, based on outputs of a high-resolution global climate model. Globally, there are ample areas that are physically suitable for fish growth and potential expansion of the nascent aquaculture industry. The effects of climate change are heterogeneous across species and regions, but areas with existing aquaculture industries are likely to see increases in growth rates. In areas where climate change results in reduced growth rates, adaptation measures, such as selective breeding, can probably offset potential production losses. © 2017 The Author(s).

  18. Gender Specific Reproductive Strategies of an Arctic Key Species (Boreogadus saida) and Implications of Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Nahrgang, Jasmine; Varpe, Øystein; Korshunova, Ekaterina; Murzina, Svetlana; Hallanger, Ingeborg G.; Vieweg, Ireen; Berge, Jørgen

    2014-01-01

    The Arctic climate is changing at an unprecedented rate. What consequences this may have on the Arctic marine ecosystem depends to a large degree on how its species will respond both directly to elevated temperatures and more indirectly through ecological interactions. But despite an alarming recent warming of the Arctic with accompanying sea ice loss, reports evaluating ecological impacts of climate change in the Arctic remain sparse. Here, based upon a large-scale field study, we present basic new knowledge regarding the life history traits for one of the most important species in the entire Arctic, the polar cod (Boreogadus saida). Furthermore, by comparing regions of contrasting climatic influence (domains), we present evidence as to how its growth and reproductive success is impaired in the warmer of the two domains. As the future Arctic is predicted to resemble today's Atlantic domains, we forecast changes in growth and life history characteristics of polar cod that will lead to alteration of its role as an Arctic keystone species. This will in turn affect community dynamics and energy transfer in the entire Arctic food chain. PMID:24871481

  19. Climate change and bird reproduction: warmer springs benefit breeding success in boreal forest grouse.

    PubMed

    Wegge, Per; Rolstad, Jørund

    2017-11-15

    Global warming is predicted to adversely affect the reproduction of birds, especially in northern latitudes. A recent study in Finland inferred that declining populations of black grouse, Tetrao tetrix , could be attributed to advancement of the time of mating and chicks hatching too early-supporting the mismatch hypothesis. Here, we examine the breeding success of sympatric capercaillie, T. urogallus, and black grouse over a 38-year period in southeast Norway. Breeding season temperatures increased, being most pronounced in April. Although the onset of spring advanced nearly three weeks, the peak of mating advanced only 4-5 days. In contrast to the result of the Finnish study, breeding success increased markedly in both species (capercaillie: 62%, black grouse: 38%). Both brood frequency and brood size increased during the study period, but significantly so only for brood frequency in capercaillie. Whereas the frequency of capercaillie broods was positively affected by rising temperatures, especially during the pre-hatching period, this was not the case in black grouse. Brood size, on the other hand, increased with increasing post-hatching temperatures in both species. Contrary to the prediction that global warming will adversely affect reproduction in boreal forest grouse, our study shows that breeding success was enhanced in warmer springs. © 2017 The Authors.

  20. The Science of Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oppenheimer, Michael; Anttila-Hughes, Jesse K.

    2016-01-01

    Michael Oppenheimer and Jesse Anttila-Hughes begin with a primer on how the greenhouse effect works, how we know that Earth is rapidly getting warmer, and how we know that the recent warming is caused by human activity. They explain the sources of scientific knowledge about climate change as well as the basis for the models scientists use to…

  1. Ecotypic differentiation between urban and rural populations of the grasshopper Chorthippus brunneus relative to climate and habitat fragmentation.

    PubMed

    San Martin Y Gomez, Gilles; Van Dyck, Hans

    2012-05-01

    Urbanization alters environmental conditions in multiple ways and offers an ecological or evolutionary challenge for organisms to cope with. Urban areas typically have a warmer climate and strongly fragmented herbaceous vegetation; the urban landscape matrix is often assumed to be hostile for many organisms. Here, we addressed the issue of evolutionary differentiation between urban and rural populations of an ectotherm insect, the grasshopper Chorthippus brunneus. We compared mobility-related morphology and climate-related life history traits measured on the first generation offspring of grasshoppers from urban and rural populations reared in a common garden laboratory experiment. We predicted (1) the urban phenotype to be more mobile (i.e., lower mass allocation to the abdomen, longer relative femur and wing lengths) than the rural phenotype; (2) the urban phenotype to be more warm adapted (e.g., higher female body mass); and (3) further evidence of local adaptation in the form of significant interaction effects between landscape of origin and breeding temperature. Both males and females of urban origin had significantly longer relative femur and wing lengths and lower mass allocation to the abdomen (i.e., higher investment in thorax and flight muscles) relative to individuals of rural origin. The results were overall significant but small (2-4%). Body mass and larval growth rate were much higher (+10%) in females of urban origin. For the life history traits, we did not find evidence for significant interaction effects between the landscape of origin and the two breeding temperatures. Our results point to ecotypic differentiation with urbanization for mobility-related morphology and climate-related life history traits. We argue that the warmer urban environment has an indirect effect through longer growth season rather than direct effects on the development.

  2. Pressure Infusion Cuff and Blood Warmer during Massive Transfusion: An Experimental Study About Hemolysis and Hypothermia

    PubMed Central

    Pruneau, Denise; Dorval, Josée; Thibault, Louis; Fisette, Jean-François; Bédard, Suzanne K.; Jacques, Annie; Beauregard, Patrice

    2016-01-01

    Background Blood warmers were developed to reduce the risk of hypothermia associated with the infusion of cold blood products. During massive transfusion, these devices are used with compression sleeve, which induce a major stress to red blood cells. In this setting, the combination of blood warmer and compression sleeve could generate hemolysis and harm the patient. We conducted this study to compare the impact of different pressure rates on the hemolysis of packed red blood cells and on the outlet temperature when a blood warmer set at 41.5°C is used. Methods Pressure rates tested were 150 and 300 mmHg. Ten packed red blood cells units were provided by Héma-Québec and each unit was sequentially tested. Results We found no increase in hemolysis either at 150 or 300 mmHg. By cons, we found that the blood warmer was not effective at warming the red blood cells at the specified temperature. At 150 mmHg, the outlet temperature reached 37.1°C and at 300 mmHg, the temperature was 33.7°C. Conclusion To use a blood warmer set at 41.5°C in conjunction with a compression sleeve at 150 or 300 mmHg does not generate hemolysis. At 300 mmHg a blood warmer set at 41.5°C does not totally avoid a risk of hypothermia. PMID:27711116

  3. Impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of Arctic oil spills.

    PubMed

    Nordam, Tor; Dunnebier, Dorien A E; Beegle-Krause, C J; Reed, Mark; Slagstad, Dag

    2017-12-01

    We investigated the effects of a warmer climate, and seasonal trends, on the fate of oil spilled in the Arctic. Three well blowout scenarios, two shipping accidents and a pipeline rupture were considered. We used ensembles of numerical simulations, using the OSCAR oil spill model, with environmental data for the periods 2009-2012 and 2050-2053 (representing a warmer future) as inputs to the model. Future atmospheric forcing was based on the IPCC's A1B scenario, with the ocean data generated by the hydrodynamic model SINMOD. We found differences in "typical" outcome of a spill in a warmer future compared to the present, mainly due to a longer season of open water. We have demonstrated that ice cover is extremely important for predicting the fate of an Arctic oil spill, and find that oil spills in a warming climate will in some cases result in greater areal coverage and shoreline exposure.

  4. Climate sensitivity of thinleaf alder growth on an interior Alaska floodplain

    Treesearch

    Dana R. Nossov; Roger W. Ruess; Teresa N. Hollingsworth

    2010-01-01

    This study examined the climate sensitivity of the growth of riparian Alnus incana ssp. tenuifolia (thinleaf alder), a keystone nitrogen-fixer, on the Tanana River floodplain of interior Alaska. We investigated correlations between alder radial growth and inter-annual variation in monthly meteorology and hydrology, spatial...

  5. Warmer winters modulate life history and energy storage but do not affect sensitivity to a widespread pesticide in an aquatic insect.

    PubMed

    Arambourou, Hélène; Stoks, Robby

    2015-10-01

    Despite the increased attention for the effects of pesticides under global warming no studies tested how winter warming affects subsequent sensitivity to pesticides. Winter warming is expected to cause delayed negative effects when it increases metabolic rates and thereby depletes energy reserves. Using a common-garden experiment, we investigated the combined effect of a 4 °C increase in winter temperature and subsequent exposure to chlorpyrifos in the aquatic larvae of replicated low- and high-latitude European populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. The warmer winter (8 °C) resulted in a higher winter survival and higher growth rates compared to the cold winter (4 °C) commonly experienced by European high-latitude populations. Low-latitude populations were better at coping with the warmer winter, indicating thermal adaptation to the local winter temperatures. Subsequent chlorpyrifos exposure at 20 °C induced strong negative effects on survival, growth rate, lipid content and acetylcholinesterase activity while phenoloxidase activity increased. These pesticide effects were not affected by winter warming. Our results suggest that for species where winter warming has positive effects on life history, no delayed effects on the sensitivity to subsequent pesticide exposure should be expected. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Climate effects on late-season flight times of Massachusetts butterflies.

    PubMed

    Zipf, L; Williams, E H; Primack, R B; Stichter, S

    2017-09-01

    Although the responses of living organisms to climate change are being widely investigated, little attention has been given to such effects late in the growing season. We studied the late-season flight times of 20 species of butterflies in a geographically limited region, the state of Massachusetts in the USA, by examining change in dates of flight over a 22-year period and in response to average monthly temperature and precipitation. By analyzing the last 10% of each year's observations reported by observers of the Massachusetts Butterfly Club, we found that seven species remain in flight significantly later into the fall than they did two decades earlier, while two species show reduced late-season flight. Life history characteristics of the species, particularly voltinism and average fall flight dates, influenced whether warmer fall months led to increases or decreases in fall flight. Warmer Novembers often led to later fall flight, and wetter Augusts usually extended fall flight. These results document the effects of climate on late-season flight times of butterflies, add to an understanding of how warmer autumn conditions alter the phenology of different butterfly species, and show the usefulness of citizen science data.

  7. Earlier snowmelt and warming lead to earlier but not necessarily more plant growth.

    PubMed

    Livensperger, Carolyn; Steltzer, Heidi; Darrouzet-Nardi, Anthony; Sullivan, Patrick F; Wallenstein, Matthew; Weintraub, Michael N

    2016-01-01

    Climate change over the past ∼50 years has resulted in earlier occurrence of plant life-cycle events for many species. Across temperate, boreal and polar latitudes, earlier seasonal warming is considered the key mechanism leading to earlier leaf expansion and growth. Yet, in seasonally snow-covered ecosystems, the timing of spring plant growth may also be cued by snowmelt, which may occur earlier in a warmer climate. Multiple environmental cues protect plants from growing too early, but to understand how climate change will alter the timing and magnitude of plant growth, experiments need to independently manipulate temperature and snowmelt. Here, we demonstrate that altered seasonality through experimental warming and earlier snowmelt led to earlier plant growth, but the aboveground production response varied among plant functional groups. Earlier snowmelt without warming led to early leaf emergence, but often slowed the rate of leaf expansion and had limited effects on aboveground production. Experimental warming alone had small and inconsistent effects on aboveground phenology, while the effect of the combined treatment resembled that of early snowmelt alone. Experimental warming led to greater aboveground production among the graminoids, limited changes among deciduous shrubs and decreased production in one of the dominant evergreen shrubs. As a result, we predict that early onset of the growing season may favour early growing plant species, even those that do not shift the timing of leaf expansion. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

  8. Seasonally resolved climate variability during the last interglacial from southern Caribbean corals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brocas, William; Felis, Thomas; Kölling, Martin; Scholz, Denis; Lohmann, Gerrit; Scheffers, Sanders

    2013-04-01

    A range of future climate scenarios have been predicted for a warmer Earth as a result of varying anthropogenic greenhouse emissions. The Last Interglacial period (~125,000 years ago, Marine Isotope Stage 5) offers a period in time which is estimated to have been in the range of 0.1 to > 2oC warmer than present (AD 1961-1990). Although this period is not considered completely analogous for future climate states, the mechanisms behind such changes have the potential to be well understood. Here we present the initial findings of a study which aims to augment current understanding by quantifying the climate dynamics of the tropical southern Caribbean using high resolution marine climate archives. In doing so, we highlight geochemical proxies obtained from aragonitic coral skeletons as a proxy for seasonality and interannual to decadal climate variability. Unique fossil coral material has been collected from an uplifted reef terrace on the island of Bonaire (Netherlands Antilles), which according to 230Th/U dating, was deposited during the Last Interglacial. The sampling technique employed here has been focused using C/T scanning and X-radiography which revealed annual density bands in 21 individual coral colonies. Due to a high average extension rate of greater than 6mm/year, monthly records are available which represent growth periods from 9 to 40 years and so cover various time windows across the Last Interglacial. We discuss the results from geochemical signals of Sr/Ca and oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) which reflect, respectively, regional temperature and hydrological balance at the sea surface. The finding that Sr/Ca and δ18O cycles occur alongside visible annual density bands allows the quality of the fossil coral material to be considered high and reliable. To further supplement the interpretation of these records greyscale increment analysis, Mg/Ca and δ13C records are presented. The implications of these findings, when compared to Holocene records, identify

  9. 'Back to the future': how archaeological remains can describe salmon adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Blanchet, Simon; Dubut, Vincent

    2012-05-01

    A strategy for species to survive climate change will be to change adaptively their way of life. Understanding rapid adaptation to climate change is therefore a priority for current research. In this issue, Turrero et al. (2012) use an original approach to unravel life history trait responses to climate change in two fish species (Salmo trutta and S. salar). Going against the flow, the authors adopt the strategy of going back to the future by investigating the responses of fish to the warming periods that followed the Last Glacial Period (approximately 30-20,000 years BP). To do this, they analysed Salmo vertebrae from well-dated archaeological sites in northern Spain in order to uncover key life history traits, which they then compared to those of contemporary specimens. They found that, as the climate got warmer, Salmo species tended to reduce the time spent in growing areas and reached spawning areas at a younger age; this tendency began approximately 15,000 years BP and accelerated in contemporary periods. The implication is a lower age at maturity and a lower reproductive success, which they tentatively related to recent declines in population growth rate. This innovative study demonstrates how changes in life history traits are linked both to the population growth rate and to the evolutionary rate under climatic constraints, which may serve as a basis for future conservation research. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  10. Chronic warm exposure impairs growth performance and reduces thermal safety margins in the common triplefin fish (Forsterygion lapillum).

    PubMed

    McArley, Tristan J; Hickey, Anthony J R; Herbert, Neill A

    2017-10-01

    Intertidal fish species face gradual chronic changes in temperature and greater extremes of acute thermal exposure through climate-induced warming. As sea temperatures rise, it has been proposed that whole-animal performance will be impaired through oxygen and capacity limited thermal tolerance [OCLTT; reduced aerobic metabolic scope (MS)] and, on acute exposure to high temperatures, thermal safety margins may be reduced because of constrained acclimation capacity of upper thermal limits. Using the New Zealand triplefin fish ( Forsterygion lapillum ), this study addressed how performance in terms of growth and metabolism (MS) and upper thermal tolerance limits would be affected by chronic exposure to elevated temperature. Growth was measured in fish acclimated (12 weeks) to present and predicted future temperatures and metabolic rates were then determined in fish at acclimation temperatures and with acute thermal ramping. In agreement with the OCLTT hypothesis, chronic exposure to elevated temperature significantly reduced growth performance and MS. However, despite the prospect of impaired growth performance under warmer future summertime conditions, an annual growth model revealed that elevated temperatures may only shift the timing of high growth potential and not the overall annual growth rate. While the upper thermal tolerance (i.e. critical thermal maxima) increased with exposure to warmer temperatures and was associated with depressed metabolic rates during acute thermal ramping, upper thermal tolerance did not differ between present and predicted future summertime temperatures. This suggests that warming may progressively decrease thermal safety margins for hardy generalist species and could limit the available habitat range of intertidal populations. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  11. The capacity to cope with climate warming declines from temperate to tropical latitudes in two widely distributed Eucalyptus species.

    PubMed

    Drake, John E; Aspinwall, Michael J; Pfautsch, Sebastian; Rymer, Paul D; Reich, Peter B; Smith, Renee A; Crous, Kristine Y; Tissue, David T; Ghannoum, Oula; Tjoelker, Mark G

    2015-01-01

    As rapid climate warming creates a mismatch between forest trees and their home environment, the ability of trees to cope with warming depends on their capacity to physiologically adjust to higher temperatures. In widespread species, individual trees in cooler home climates are hypothesized to more successfully acclimate to warming than their counterparts in warmer climates that may approach thermal limits. We tested this prediction with a climate-shift experiment in widely distributed Eucalyptus tereticornis and E. grandis using provenances originating along a ~2500 km latitudinal transect (15.5-38.0°S) in eastern Australia. We grew 21 provenances in conditions approximating summer temperatures at seed origin and warmed temperatures (+3.5 °C) using a series of climate-controlled glasshouse bays. The effects of +3.5 °C warming strongly depended on home climate. Cool-origin provenances responded to warming through an increase in photosynthetic capacity and total leaf area, leading to enhanced growth of 20-60%. Warm-origin provenances, however, responded to warming through a reduction in photosynthetic capacity and total leaf area, leading to reduced growth of approximately 10%. These results suggest that there is predictable intraspecific variation in the capacity of trees to respond to warming; cool-origin taxa are likely to benefit from warming, while warm-origin taxa may be negatively affected. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Evaluating within-population variability in behavior and demography for the adaptive potential of a dispersal-limited species to climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Muñoz, David J.; Miller Hesed, Kyle; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Miller, David A.W.

    2016-01-01

    Multiple pathways exist for species to respond to changing climates. However, responses of dispersal-limited species will be more strongly tied to ability to adapt within existing populations as rates of environmental change will likely exceed movement rates. Here, we assess adaptive capacity in Plethodon cinereus, a dispersal-limited woodland salamander. We quantify plasticity in behavior and variation in demography to observed variation in environmental variables over a 5-year period. We found strong evidence that temperature and rainfall influence P. cinereus surface presence, indicating changes in climate are likely to affect seasonal activity patterns. We also found that warmer summer temperatures reduced individual growth rates into the autumn, which is likely to have negative demographic consequences. Reduced growth rates may delay reproductive maturity and lead to reductions in size-specific fecundity, potentially reducing population-level persistence. To better understand within-population variability in responses, we examined differences between two common color morphs. Previous evidence suggests that the color polymorphism may be linked to physiological differences in heat and moisture tolerance. We found only moderate support for morph-specific differences for the relationship between individual growth and temperature. Measuring environmental sensitivity to climatic variability is the first step in predicting species' responses to climate change. Our results suggest phenological shifts and changes in growth rates are likely responses under scenarios where further warming occurs, and we discuss possible adaptive strategies for resulting selective pressures.

  13. Climate-driven speedup of alpine treeline forest growth in the Tianshan Mountains, Northwestern China.

    PubMed

    Qi, Zhaohuan; Liu, Hongyan; Wu, Xiuchen; Hao, Qian

    2015-02-01

    Forest growth is sensitive to interannual climatic change in the alpine treeline ecotone (ATE). Whether the alpine treeline ecotone shares a similar pattern of forest growth with lower elevational closed forest belt (CFB) under changing climate remains unclear. Here, we reported an unprecedented acceleration of Picea schrenkiana forest growth since 1960s in the ATE of Tianshan Mountains, northwestern China by a stand-total sampling along six altitudinal transects with three plots in each transect: one from the ATE between the treeline and the forest line, and the other two from the CFB. All the sampled P. schrenkiana forest patches show a higher growth speed after 1960 and, comparatively, forest growth in the CFB has sped up much slower than that in the ATE. The speedup of forest growth at the ATE is mainly accounted for by climate factors, with increasing temperature suggested to be the primary driver. Stronger water deficit as well as more competition within the CFB might have restricted forest growth there more than that within the ATE, implying biotic factors were also significant for the accelerated forest growth in the ATE, which should be excluded from simulations and predictions of warming-induced treeline dynamics. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Table of Policy Options for Smart Growth Fixes for Climate Adaptation and Resilience

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Sortable table of policy options discussed in the publication Smart Growth Fixes for Climate Adaptation and Resilience, which can help local governments prepare for climate change while gaining other environmental, economic, health, and social benefits

  15. Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities

    PubMed Central

    Diamond, Sarah E.; Nichols, Lauren M.; Pelini, Shannon L.; Penick, Clint A.; Barber, Grace W.; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Gotelli, Nicholas J.

    2016-01-01

    How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable. PMID:27819044

  16. Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities.

    PubMed

    Diamond, Sarah E; Nichols, Lauren M; Pelini, Shannon L; Penick, Clint A; Barber, Grace W; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R; Ellison, Aaron M; Sanders, Nathan J; Gotelli, Nicholas J

    2016-10-01

    How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable.

  17. Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to the Atlantic Coast

    Treesearch

    Rachel Loehman; Greer Anderson

    2009-01-01

    Observed 20th century climate changes in the Atlantic Coast bioregion include warmer air and sea surface temperatures, increased winter precipitation (especially rainfall), and an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events. Climate change impacts during the century include phenological shifts in plant and animals species, such as earlier occurrence of lilac...

  18. Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate.

    PubMed

    Neuner, Susanne; Albrecht, Axel; Cullmann, Dominik; Engels, Friedrich; Griess, Verena C; Hahn, W Andreas; Hanewinkel, Marc; Härtl, Fabian; Kölling, Christian; Staupendahl, Kai; Knoke, Thomas

    2015-02-01

    Shifts in tree species distributions caused by climatic change are expected to cause severe losses in the economic value of European forestland. However, this projection disregards potential adaptation options such as tree species conversion, shorter production periods, or establishment of mixed species forests. The effect of tree species mixture has, as yet, not been quantitatively investigated for its potential to mitigate future increases in production risks. For the first time, we use survival time analysis to assess the effects of climate, species mixture and soil condition on survival probabilities for Norway spruce and European beech. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models based on an extensive dataset of almost 65,000 trees from the European Forest Damage Survey (FDS)--part of the European-wide Level I monitoring network--predicted a 24% decrease in survival probability for Norway spruce in pure stands at age 120 when unfavorable changes in climate conditions were assumed. Increasing species admixture greatly reduced the negative effects of unfavorable climate conditions, resulting in a decline in survival probabilities of only 7%. We conclude that future studies of forest management under climate change as well as forest policy measures need to take this, as yet unconsidered, strongly advantageous effect of tree species mixture into account. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Climate Change in Voyageurs National Park

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seeley, M. W.

    2011-12-01

    Voyageurs National Park was created in 1975. This beautifully forested and lake-dominated landscape shared between Minnesota and Canada has few roads and must be seen by water. The islands and Kabetogama Peninsula are part of the Canadian Shield, some of the oldest exposed rock in the world. Voyageurs National Park boasts many unique landscape and climatic attributes, and like most mid-latitude regions of the northern hemisphere climate change is in play there. The statistical signals of change in the climate record are evident from both temperature and precipitation measurements. The history of these measurements goes back over 100 years. Additionally, studies and measurements of the lakes and general ecosystem already show some consequences of these climate changes. Mean temperature measurements are generally warmer than they once were, most notably in the winter season. Minimum temperatures have changed more than maximum temperatures. Precipitation has trended upward, but has also changed in character with greater frequency and contribution from thunderstorm rainfalls across the park. In addition variability in annual precipitation has become more amplified, as the disparity between wet and dry years has grown wider. Some changes are already in evidence in terms of bird migration patterns, earlier lake ice-out dates, warmer water temperatures with more algal blooms, decline in lake clarity, and somewhat longer frost-free seasons. Climate change will continue to have impacts on Voyageurs National Park, and likely other national parks across the nation. Furthermore scientists may find that the study, presentation, and discussion about climate impacts on our national parks is a particularly engaging way to educate citizens and improve climate literacy as we contemplate what adaptation and mitigation policies should be enacted to preserve the quality of our national parks for future generations.

  20. Rapid warming forces contrasting growth trends of subalpine fir ( Abies fabri ) at higher- and lower-elevations in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wang, Wenzhi; Jia, Min; Wang, Genxu

    Tree radial growth is expected to increase at higher elevations under climate warming, while lower elevation tree growth is expected to decline. However, numerous studies have found tree radial growth responds consistently to climate along elevational gradients. Here, we sampled five plots across the subalpine Abies fabri forest belt on Gongga Mountain in the eastern Tibetan Plateau to determine tree radial growth trends and responses to climate. Three commonly used detrending methods all consistently showed that tree radial growth at high elevation (> 3100 m) increased, while tree growth declined at the lower elevations (2700 m–2900 m) over the lastmore » three decades. Increasing late-growing season temperature positively (p < 0.05) correlated to tree radial growth at higher elevations, but the sign of this relationship reversed to become negative at lower elevations. Moving-window correlation analyses indicated the difference between high and low elevations response to temperature variation increased strongly with warming. Placing our result into the global context, 62% of 39 published studies found that trees along elevation gradients respond divergently to warming, and that these are located in warmer and wetter regions of the Earth. Notably, 28% of studies found non-significant responses to temperature at both high and low elevations. Our findings in the subalpine mountain forest in the eastern Tibetan Plateau were consistent with the majority of published datasets, and imply increasing temperature benefit for tree populations at higher elevation, while warming dampens growth at lower elevations.« less

  1. Contrasting growth forecasts across the geographical range of Scots pine due to altitudinal and latitudinal differences in climatic sensitivity.

    PubMed

    Matías, Luis; Linares, Juan C; Sánchez-Miranda, Ángela; Jump, Alistair S

    2017-10-01

    Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of a species' geographical distribution, where differences in growth or population dynamics may result in range expansions or contractions. Understanding population responses to different climatic drivers along wide latitudinal and altitudinal gradients is necessary in order to gain a better understanding of plant responses to ongoing increases in global temperature and drought severity. We selected Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) as a model species to explore growth responses to climatic variability (seasonal temperature and precipitation) over the last century through dendrochronological methods. We developed linear models based on age, climate and previous growth to forecast growth trends up to year 2100 using climatic predictions. Populations were located at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the northern, central and southernmost populations and across an altitudinal gradient at the southern edge of the distribution (treeline, medium and lower elevations). Radial growth was maximal at medium altitude and treeline of the southernmost populations. Temperature was the main factor controlling growth variability along the gradients, although the timing and strength of climatic variables affecting growth shifted with latitude and altitude. Predictive models forecast a general increase in Scots pine growth at treeline across the latitudinal distribution, with southern populations increasing growth up to year 2050, when it stabilizes. The highest responsiveness appeared at central latitude, and moderate growth increase is projected at the northern limit. Contrastingly, the model forecasted growth declines at lowland-southern populations, suggesting an upslope range displacement over the coming decades. Our results give insight into the geographical responses of tree species to climate change

  2. Disaggregating from daily to sub-daily rainfall under a future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westra, S.; Evans, J.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

    2012-04-01

    We describe an algorithm for disaggregating daily rainfall into sub-daily rainfall 'fragments' (continuous fine-resolution rainfall sequences whose total depth sums to the daily rainfall amount) under a future, warmer climate. The basis of the algorithm is re-sample sub-daily fragments from the historical record conditional on the total daily rainfall amount and a range of atmospheric predictors representative of the future climate. The logic is that as the atmosphere warms, future rainfall patterns will be more reflective of historical rainfall patterns which occurred on warmer days at the same location, or at locations which have an atmospheric profile more reflective of expected future conditions. When looking at the scaling from daily to sub-daily rainfall over the historical record, it was found that the relationship varied significantly by season and by location, with rainfall patterns on warmer seasons or at warmer locations typically showing more intense rain falling over shorter periods compared with cooler seasons and stations. Importantly, by regressing against atmospheric covariates such as temperature this effect was almost entirely eliminated, providing a basis for suggesting the approach may be valid when extrapolating sub-daily sequences to a future climate. The method of fragments algorithm was then applied to nine stations around Australia, and showed that when holding the total daily rainfall constant, the maximum intensity of a short duration (6 minute) rainfall increased by between 4.1% and 13.4% per degree change in temperature for the maximum six minute burst, between 3.1% and 6.8% for the maximum one hour burst, and between 1.5% and 3.5% for the fraction of the day with no rainfall. This highlights that a large proportion of the change to the distribution of precipitation in the future is likely to occur at sub-daily timescales, with significant implications for many hydrological systems.

  3. ARE LAKES GETTING WARMER? REMOTE SENSING OF LARGE LAKE TEMPERATURES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recent studies (Levitus et al., 2000) suggest a warning of the world ocean over the past 50 years. Freshwater lakes could also be getting warmer but thermal measurements to determine this are lacking. Large lake temperatures are vertically and horizontally heterogeneous and vary ...

  4. Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy

    PubMed Central

    Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B.; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H.; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

    2017-01-01

    Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period’s discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing—rather than merely cost savings—again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. PMID:29087298

  5. Adapting silviculture to a changing climate in the southern United States

    Treesearch

    James M. Guldin

    2014-01-01

    Questions about how forests might respond to climate change are often addressed through planning, prediction, and modeling at the landscape scale. A recent synthesis of climate-change impacts on forest management and policy found that the earth is warmer than it has been in the recent past, and that 11 of the last 12 years rank among the 12 warmest since 1850 (Solomon...

  6. Response of high-elevation forests in the Olympic Mountains to climatic change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zolbrod, A.N.; Peterson, D.L.

    1999-01-01

    The gap model ZELIG was used to examine the effects of increased temperature (2°C) and altered precipitation on high-elevation ecosystems of the Olympic Mountains, Washington, U.S.A. Changes in tree species distribution and abundance, as well as stand biomass, were examined on north and south aspects in the dry northeast (NE) and wet southwest (SW) regions of the Olympics for (i) warmer, (ii) warmer and 20% wetter, and (iii) warmer and 20% drier climatic-change scenarios. Dominant tree species shift upwards 300-600 m in elevation in the SW, with subalpine meadows and Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carr. forests being replaced by Abies amabilis (Dougl.) Forbes forests at higher elevations and A. amabilis forests being replaced by Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg. forests at lower elevations. In the NE, drought-tolerant species become dominant approximately 200 m lower than present, with A. lasiocarpa dominating the north aspect and Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. the south aspect. Biomass increases in the SW and generally decreases in the NE, depending on aspect and precipitation regime. This study suggests that species and site-specific responses at mesoscale (e.g., wet vs. dry climatic regime) and microscale (e.g., north vs. south aspect) resolutions must be characterized to quantify the variation in potential effects of climatic change on forest vegetation in mountainous regions.

  7. [Energy policy rather than climate policy].

    PubMed

    Kroonenberg, Salomon B

    2009-01-01

    Energy policy and climate policy are two different issues and should not be treated as if they were the same. Whether the climate gets warmer or colder, saving energy and developing sustainable forms of energy production remain of paramount importance because fossil hydrocarbons are likely to be exhausted soon. But climate policy is a fallacy: it is human arrogance to think we can control the climate by reducing emissions and by storing CO2 underground. In spite of rising CO2 levels, the climate has cooled down slightly over the past decade. Since the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) did not predict this, it is questionable whether they can reliably predict warming. Other factors such as solar activity are probably more important for climate than greenhouse gases. The danger of coupling energy policy to climate policy is evident: if the climate cools down, people will lose belief in the greenhouse effect and therefore also lose interest in saving energy.

  8. The influence of recent climate change on tree height growth differs with species and spatial environment.

    PubMed

    Messaoud, Yassine; Chen, Han Y H

    2011-02-16

    Tree growth has been reported to increase in response to recent global climate change in controlled and semi-controlled experiments, but few studies have reported response of tree growth to increased temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration in natural environments. This study addresses how recent global climate change has affected height growth of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx) and black spruce (Picea mariana Mill B.S.) in their natural environments. We sampled 145 stands dominated by aspen and 82 dominated by spruce over the entire range of their distributions in British Columbia, Canada. These stands were established naturally after fire between the 19th and 20th centuries. Height growth was quantified as total heights of sampled dominant and co-dominant trees at breast-height age of 50 years. We assessed the relationships between 50-year height growth and environmental factors at both spatial and temporal scales. We also tested whether the tree growth associated with global climate change differed with spatial environment (latitude, longitude and elevation). As expected, height growth of both species was positively related to temperature variables at the regional scale and with soil moisture and nutrient availability at the local scale. While height growth of trembling aspen was not significantly related to any of the temporal variables we examined, that of black spruce increased significantly with stand establishment date, the anomaly of the average maximum summer temperature between May-August, and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, but not with the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Furthermore, the increase of spruce height growth associated with recent climate change was higher in the western than in eastern part of British Columbia. This study demonstrates that the response of height growth to recent climate change, i.e., increasing temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, did not only differ with tree species, but

  9. Ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Climate Change Response Framework Project in northern Wisconsin

    Treesearch

    Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Louis Iverson; Linda Parker; David Mladenoff; Leslie Brandt; Patricia Butler; Matt St. Pierre; Anantha Prasad; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Dale Higgins; Avery Dorland

    2011-01-01

    The forests of northern Wisconsin will likely experience dramatic changes over the next 100 years as a result of climate change. This assessment evaluates key forest ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change across northern Wisconsin under a range of future climate scenarios. Warmer temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are expected to influence ecosystem...

  10. Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe.

    PubMed

    Ciscar, Juan-Carlos; Iglesias, Ana; Feyen, Luc; Szabó, László; Van Regemorter, Denise; Amelung, Bas; Nicholls, Robert; Watkiss, Paul; Christensen, Ole B; Dankers, Rutger; Garrote, Luis; Goodess, Clare M; Hunt, Alistair; Moreno, Alvaro; Richards, Julie; Soria, Antonio

    2011-02-15

    Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to design and prioritize adaptation strategies. New developments in regional climate modeling and physical-impact modeling in Europe allow a better exploration of those dimensions. This article quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework. We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union (EU) resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2-1%. If the welfare loss is assumed to be constant over time, climate change may halve the EU's annual welfare growth. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and a higher rise in sea level result in more severe economic damage. However, the results show that there are large variations across European regions. Southern Europe, the British Isles, and Central Europe North appear most sensitive to climate change. Northern Europe, on the other hand, is the only region with net economic benefits, driven mainly by the positive effects on agriculture. Coastal systems, agriculture, and river flooding are the most important of the four market impacts assessed.

  11. Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe

    PubMed Central

    Ciscar, Juan-Carlos; Iglesias, Ana; Feyen, Luc; Szabó, László; Van Regemorter, Denise; Amelung, Bas; Nicholls, Robert; Watkiss, Paul; Christensen, Ole B.; Dankers, Rutger; Garrote, Luis; Goodess, Clare M.; Hunt, Alistair; Moreno, Alvaro; Richards, Julie; Soria, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to design and prioritize adaptation strategies. New developments in regional climate modeling and physical-impact modeling in Europe allow a better exploration of those dimensions. This article quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework. We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union (EU) resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2–1%. If the welfare loss is assumed to be constant over time, climate change may halve the EU's annual welfare growth. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and a higher rise in sea level result in more severe economic damage. However, the results show that there are large variations across European regions. Southern Europe, the British Isles, and Central Europe North appear most sensitive to climate change. Northern Europe, on the other hand, is the only region with net economic benefits, driven mainly by the positive effects on agriculture. Coastal systems, agriculture, and river flooding are the most important of the four market impacts assessed. PMID:21282624

  12. Quantifying the health impacts of air pollution under a changing climate-a review of approaches and methodology.

    PubMed

    Sujaritpong, Sarunya; Dear, Keith; Cope, Martin; Walsh, Sean; Kjellstrom, Tord

    2014-03-01

    Climate change has been predicted to affect future air quality, with inevitable consequences for health. Quantifying the health effects of air pollution under a changing climate is crucial to provide evidence for actions to safeguard future populations. In this paper, we review published methods for quantifying health impacts to identify optimal approaches and ways in which existing challenges facing this line of research can be addressed. Most studies have employed a simplified methodology, while only a few have reported sensitivity analyses to assess sources of uncertainty. The limited investigations that do exist suggest that examining the health risk estimates should particularly take into account the uncertainty associated with future air pollution emissions scenarios, concentration-response functions, and future population growth and age structures. Knowledge gaps identified for future research include future health impacts from extreme air pollution events, interactions between temperature and air pollution effects on public health under a changing climate, and how population adaptation and behavioural changes in a warmer climate may modify exposure to air pollution and health consequences.

  13. Linkages between Alaskan sockeye salmon abundance, growth at sea, and climate, 1955-2002

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ruggerone, G.T.; Nielsen, J.L.; Bumgarner, J.

    2007-01-01

    We tested the hypothesis that increased growth of salmon during early marine life contributed to greater survival and abundance of salmon following the 1976/1977 climate regime shift and that this, in turn, led to density-dependent reductions in growth during late marine stages. Annual measurements of Bristol Bay (Bering Sea) and Chignik (Gulf of Alaska) sockeye salmon scale growth from 1955 to 2002 were used as indices of body growth. During the first and second years at sea, growth of both stocks tended to be higher after the 1976-1977 climate shift, whereas growth during the third year and homeward migration was often below average. Multiple regression models indicated that return per spawner of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon and adult abundance of western and central Alaska sockeye salmon were positively correlated with growth during the first 2 years at sea and negatively correlated with growth during later life stages. After accounting for competition between Bristol Bay sockeye and Asian pink salmon, age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon increased after the 1976-1977 regime shift, then decreased after the 1989 climate shift. Late marine growth and age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon was exceptionally low after 1989, possibly reducing their reproductive potential. These findings support the hypothesis that greater marine growth during the first 2 years at sea contributed to greater salmon survival and abundance, which in turn led to density-dependent growth during later life stages when size-related mortality was likely lower. Our findings provide new evidence supporting the importance of bottom-up control in marine ecosystems and highlight the complex dynamics of species interactions that continually change as salmon grow and mature in the ocean. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Holocene climate variability in Texas, USA: An integration of existing paleoclimate data and modeling with a new, high-resolution speleothem record

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wong, Corinne I.; Banner, Jay L.; Musgrove, MaryLynn

    2015-01-01

    Delineating the climate processes governing precipitation variability in drought-prone Texas is critical for predicting and mitigating climate change effects, and requires the reconstruction of past climate beyond the instrumental record. We synthesize existing paleoclimate proxy data and climate simulations to provide an overview of climate variability in Texas during the Holocene. Conditions became progressively warmer and drier transitioning from the early to mid Holocene, culminating between 7 and 3 ka (thousand years ago), and were more variable during the late Holocene. The timing and relative magnitude of Holocene climate variability, however, is poorly constrained owing to considerable variability among the different records. To help address this, we present a new speleothem (NBJ) reconstruction from a central Texas cave that comprises the highest resolution proxy record to date, spanning the mid to late Holocene. NBJ trace-element concentrations indicate variable moisture conditions with no clear temporal trend. There is a decoupling between NBJ growth rate, trace-element concentrations, and δ18O values, which indicate that (i) the often direct relation between speleothem growth rate and moisture availability is likely complicated by changes in the overlying ecosystem that affect subsurface CO2 production, and (ii) speleothem δ18O variations likely reflect changes in moisture source (i.e., proportion of Pacific-vs. Gulf of Mexico-derived moisture) that appear not to be linked to moisture amount.

  15. Holocene climate variability in Texas, USA: An integration of existing paleoclimate data and modeling with a new, high-resolution speleothem record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, Corinne I.; Banner, Jay L.; Musgrove, MaryLynn

    2015-11-01

    Delineating the climate processes governing precipitation variability in drought-prone Texas is critical for predicting and mitigating climate change effects, and requires the reconstruction of past climate beyond the instrumental record. We synthesize existing paleoclimate proxy data and climate simulations to provide an overview of climate variability in Texas during the Holocene. Conditions became progressively warmer and drier transitioning from the early to mid Holocene, culminating between 7 and 3 ka (thousand years ago), and were more variable during the late Holocene. The timing and relative magnitude of Holocene climate variability, however, is poorly constrained owing to considerable variability among the different records. To help address this, we present a new speleothem (NBJ) reconstruction from a central Texas cave that comprises the highest resolution proxy record to date, spanning the mid to late Holocene. NBJ trace-element concentrations indicate variable moisture conditions with no clear temporal trend. There is a decoupling between NBJ growth rate, trace-element concentrations, and δ18O values, which indicate that (i) the often direct relation between speleothem growth rate and moisture availability is likely complicated by changes in the overlying ecosystem that affect subsurface CO2 production, and (ii) speleothem δ18O variations likely reflect changes in moisture source (i.e., proportion of Pacific-vs. Gulf of Mexico-derived moisture) that appear not to be linked to moisture amount.

  16. Are whooping cranes destined for extinction? Climate change imperils recruitment and population growth.

    PubMed

    Butler, Matthew J; Metzger, Kristine L; Harris, Grant M

    2017-04-01

    Identifying climatic drivers of an animal population's vital rates and locating where they operate steers conservation efforts to optimize species recovery. The population growth of endangered whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) hinges on juvenile recruitment. Therefore, we identify climatic drivers (solar activity [sunspots] and weather) of whooping crane recruitment throughout the species' life cycle (breeding, migration, wintering). Our method uses a repeated cross-validated absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach to identify drivers of recruitment. We model effects of climate change on those drivers to predict whooping crane population growth given alternative scenarios of climate change and solar activity. Years with fewer sunspots indicated greater recruitment. Increased precipitation during autumn migration signified less recruitment. On the breeding grounds, fewer days below freezing during winter and more precipitation during breeding suggested less recruitment. We predicted whooping crane recruitment and population growth may fall below long-term averages during all solar cycles when atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases, as expected, to 500 ppm by 2050. Species recovery during a typical solar cycle with 500 ppm may require eight times longer than conditions without climate change and the chance of population decline increases to 31%. Although this whooping crane population is growing and may appear secure, long-term threats imposed by climate change and increased solar activity may jeopardize its persistence. Weather on the breeding grounds likely affects recruitment through hydrological processes and predation risk, whereas precipitation during autumn migration may influence juvenile mortality. Mitigating threats or abating climate change should occur within ≈30 years or this wild population of whooping cranes may begin declining.

  17. Implications of climate change on wind erosion of agricultural lands in the Columbia Plateau

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Climate change may impact soil health and productivity as a result of accelerated or decelerated rates of erosion. Previous studies suggest a greater risk of wind erosion on arid and semi-arid lands due to loss of biomass under a future warmer climate. There have been no studies conducted to assess ...

  18. Interspecific variation in growth responses to tree size, competition and climate of western Canadian boreal mixed forests.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Xinyu; Huang, Jian-Guo; Cheng, Jiong; Dawson, Andria; Stadt, Kenneth J; Comeau, Philip G; Chen, Han Y H

    2018-08-01

    Tree growth of boreal forest plays an important role on global carbon (C) cycle, while tree growth in the western Canadian boreal mixed forests has been predicted to be negatively affected by regional drought. Individual tree growth can be controlled by many factors, such as competition, climate, tree size and age. However, information about contributions of different factors to tree growth is still limited in this region. In order to address this uncertainty, tree rings of two dominant tree species, trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) and white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench.) Voss), were sampled from boreal mixed forest stands distributed across Alberta, Canada. Tree growth rates over different time intervals (10years interval, 1998-2007; 20years interval, 1988-2007; 30years interval, 1978-2007) were calculated to study the effects of different factors (tree size, competition, climate, and age) on tree growth. Results indicated that tree growth of two species were both primarily affected by competition or tree size, while climatic indices showed less effects on tree growth. Growth of trembling aspen was significantly affected by inter- and intraspecific competition, while growth of white spruce was primarily influenced by tree size, followed by competition. Positive relationship was found between growth of white spruce and competition index of coniferous group, suggesting an intraspecific mutualism mechanism within coniferous group. Our results further suggested that competition driven succession was the primary process of forest composition shift in the western Canadian boreal mixed forest. Although drought stress increased tree mortality, decline of stem density under climate change released competition stress of surviving trees, which in turn sustained growth of surviving trees. Therefore, climatic indices showed fewer effects on growth of dominant tree species compared to other factors in our study. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Fine-scale variability in growth-climate relationships of Douglas-fir, North Cascade Range, Washington.

    Treesearch

    Michael J. Case; David L. Peterson

    2005-01-01

    Information about the sensitivity to climate of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) is valuable because it will allow forest managers to maximize growth, better understand how carbon sequestration may change over time, and better model and predict future ecosystem responses to climatic change. We examined the effects of climatic...

  20. Controlled warming effects on wheat growth and yield: field measurements and modeling

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Climate warming may raise wheat yields in cooler climates and lower them in warmer. To understand these contrasting effects, infrared heating lamps were used to warm irrigated spring wheat by 1.5 'C (day) and 3.0 'C (night) above unheated controls during different times of the year at Maricopa, AZ. ...

  1. A risk assessment of climate change and the impact of forest diseases on forest ecosystems in the Western United States and Canada

    Treesearch

    John T. Kliejunas

    2011-01-01

    This risk assessment projects the effects of eight forest diseases under two climate-change scenarios (warmer and drier, warmer and wetter). Examples are used to describe how various types of forest diseases may respond to environmental changes. Forest diseases discussed in this report include foliar diseases, Phytophthora diseases, stem rusts,...

  2. Response of northern hemisphere environmental and atmospheric conditions to climate changes using Greenland aerosol records from the Eemian to the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, H.

    2017-12-01

    The Northern Hemisphere experienced dramatic climate changes over the last glacial cycle, including vast ice sheet expansion and frequent abrupt climate events. Moreover, high northern latitudes during the last interglacial (Eemian) were warmer than today and may provide guidance for future climate change scenarios. However, little evidence exists regarding the environmental alterations connected to these climate changes. Using aerosol concentration records in decadal resolution from the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) over the last 128,000 years we extract quantitative information on environmental changes, including the first comparison of northern hemisphere environmental conditions between the warmer than present Eemian and the early Holocene. Separating source changes from transport effects, we find that changes in the ice concentration greatly overestimate the changes in atmospheric concentrations in the aerosol source region, the latter mirroring changes in aerosol emissions. Glacial times were characterized by a strong reduction in terrestrial biogenic emissions (only 10-20% of the early Holocene value) reflecting the net loss of vegetated area in mid to high latitudes, while rapid climate changes during the glacial had essentially no effect on terrestrial biogenic aerosol emissions. An increase in terrestrial dust emissions of approximately a factor of eight during peak glacial and cold stadial intervals indicates higher aridity and dust storm activity in Asian deserts. Glacial sea salt aerosol emissions increased only moderately (by approximately 50%), likely due to sea ice expansion, while marked stadial/interstadial variations in sea salt concentrations in the ice reflect mainly changes in wet deposition en route. Eemian ice contains lower aerosol concentrations than ice from the early Holocene, due to shortened atmospheric residence time during the warmer Eemian, suggesting that generally 2°C warmer climate in high northern latitudes did not

  3. Shifts in the climate space of temperate cyprinid fishes due to climate change are coupled with altered body sizes and growth rates.

    PubMed

    Ruiz-Navarro, Ana; Gillingham, Phillipa K; Britton, J Robert

    2016-09-01

    Predictions of species responses to climate change often focus on distribution shifts, although responses can also include shifts in body sizes and population demographics. Here, shifts in the distributional ranges ('climate space'), body sizes (as maximum theoretical body sizes, L∞) and growth rates (as rate at which L∞ is reached, K) were predicted for five fishes of the Cyprinidae family in a temperate region over eight climate change projections. Great Britain was the model area, and the model species were Rutilus rutilus, Leuciscus leuciscus, Squalius cephalus, Gobio gobio and Abramis brama. Ensemble models predicted that the species' climate spaces would shift in all modelled projections, with the most drastic changes occurring under high emissions; all range centroids shifted in a north-westerly direction. Predicted climate space expanded for R. rutilus and A. brama, contracted for S. cephalus, and for L. leuciscus and G. gobio, expanded under low-emission scenarios but contracted under high emissions, suggesting the presence of some climate-distribution thresholds. For R. rutilus, A. brama, S. cephalus and G. gobio, shifts in their climate space were coupled with predicted shifts to significantly smaller maximum body sizes and/or faster growth rates, aligning strongly to aspects of temperature-body size theory. These predicted shifts in L∞ and K had considerable consequences for size-at-age per species, suggesting substantial alterations in population age structures and abundances. Thus, when predicting climate change outcomes for species, outputs that couple shifts in climate space with altered body sizes and growth rates provide considerable insights into the population and community consequences, especially for species that cannot easily track their thermal niches. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Vulnerabilities and adapting irrigated and rainfed cotton to climate change in the lower Mississippi Delta Region

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Overdependence on fossil fuels for human energy needs continues to emitpotential greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere leading to a warmer climate over the earth. Predicting the impacts of climate change (CC) on food and fiber production systems in the future is essential for divising adaptati...

  5. Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

    2015-10-01

    Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates.

  6. Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

    2015-01-01

    Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates. PMID:26501958

  7. Vegetation limits the impact of a warm climate on boreal wildfires.

    PubMed

    Girardin, Martin P; Ali, Adam A; Carcaillet, Christopher; Blarquez, Olivier; Hély, Christelle; Terrier, Aurélie; Genries, Aurélie; Bergeron, Yves

    2013-09-01

    Strategic introduction of less flammable broadleaf vegetation into landscapes was suggested as a management strategy for decreasing the risk of boreal wildfires projected under climatic change. However, the realization and strength of this offsetting effect in an actual environment remain to be demonstrated. Here we combined paleoecological data, global climate models and wildfire modelling to assess regional fire frequency (RegFF, i.e. the number of fires through time) in boreal forests as it relates to tree species composition and climate over millennial time-scales. Lacustrine charcoals from northern landscapes of eastern boreal Canada indicate that RegFF during the mid-Holocene (6000-3000 yr ago) was significantly higher than pre-industrial RegFF (AD c. 1750). In southern landscapes, RegFF was not significantly higher than the pre-industrial RegFF in spite of the declining drought severity. The modelling experiment indicates that the high fire risk brought about by a warmer and drier climate in the south during the mid-Holocene was offset by a higher broadleaf component. Our data highlight an important function for broadleaf vegetation in determining boreal RegFF in a warmer climate. We estimate that its feedback may be large enough to offset the projected climate change impacts on drought conditions. © 2013 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

  8. Effect of historical land-use and climate change on tree-climate relationships in the upper Midwestern United States.

    PubMed

    Goring, Simon J; Williams, John W

    2017-04-01

    Contemporary forest inventory data are widely used to understand environmental controls on tree species distributions and to construct models to project forest responses to climate change, but the stability and representativeness of contemporary tree-climate relationships are poorly understood. We show that tree-climate relationships for 15 tree genera in the upper Midwestern US have significantly altered over the last two centuries due to historical land-use and climate change. Realised niches have shifted towards higher minimum temperatures and higher rainfall. A new attribution method implicates both historical climate change and land-use in these shifts, with the relative importance varying among genera and climate variables. Most climate/land-use interactions are compounding, in which historical land-use reinforces shifts in species-climate relationships toward wetter distributions, or confounding, in which land-use complicates shifts towards warmer distributions. Compounding interactions imply that contemporary-based models of species distributions may underestimate species resilience to climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  9. Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy.

    PubMed

    Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

    2017-11-14

    Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  10. Climate change alters the reproductive phenology and investment of a lacustrine fish, the three-spine stickleback.

    PubMed

    Hovel, Rachel A; Carlson, Stephanie M; Quinn, Thomas P

    2017-06-01

    High-latitude lakes are particularly sensitive to the effects of global climate change, demonstrating earlier ice breakup, longer ice-free seasons, and increased water temperatures. Such physical changes have implications for diverse life-history traits in taxa across entire lake food webs. Here, we use a five-decade time series from an Alaskan lake to explore effects of climate change on growth and reproduction of a widely distributed lacustrine fish, the three-spine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We used multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) models to describe trends in the mean length for multiple size classes and to explore the influence of physical (date of ice breakup, surface water temperature) and biological (density of con- and heterospecifics) factors. As predicted, mean size of age 1 and older fish at the end of the growing season increased across years with earlier ice breakup and warmer temperatures. In contrast, mean size of age 0 fish decreased over time. Overall, lower fish density and warmer water temperatures were associated with larger size for all cohorts. Earlier ice breakup was associated with larger size for age 1 and older fish but, paradoxically, with smaller size of age 0 fish. To explore this latter result, we used mixing models on age 0 size distributions, which revealed an additional cohort in years with early ice breakup, lowering the mean size of age 0 fish. Moreover, early ice breakup was associated with earlier breeding, evidenced by earlier capture of age 0 fish. Our results suggest that early ice breakup altered both timing and frequency of breeding; three-spine stickleback spawned earlier and more often in response to earlier ice breakup date. While previous studies have shown the influence of changing conditions in northern lakes on breeding timing and growth, this is the first to document increased breeding frequency, highlighting another pathway by which climate change can alter the ecology of northern lakes

  11. Potential effects of climate change on the growth of fishes from different thermal guilds in Lakes Michigan and Huron

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kao, Yu-Chun; Madenjian, Charles P.; Bunnell, David B.; Lofgren, Brent M.; Perroud, Marjorie

    2015-01-01

    We used a bioenergetics modeling approach to investigate potential effects of climate change on the growth of two economically important native fishes: yellow perch (Perca flavescens), a cool-water fish, and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), a cold-water fish, in deep and oligotrophic Lakes Michigan and Huron. For assessing potential changes in fish growth, we contrasted simulated fish growth in the projected future climate regime during the period 2043-2070 under different prey availability scenarios with the simulated growth during the baseline (historical reference) period 1964-1993. Results showed that effects of climate change on the growth of these two fishes are jointly controlled by behavioral thermoregulation and prey availability. With the ability of behavioral thermoregulation, temperatures experienced by yellow perch in the projected future climate regime increased more than those experienced by lake whitefish. Thus simulated future growth decreased more for yellow perch than for lake whitefish under scenarios where prey availability remains constant into the future. Under high prey availability scenarios, simulated future growth of these two fishes both increased but yellow perch could not maintain the baseline efficiency of converting prey consumption into body weight. We contended that thermal guild should not be the only factor used to predict effects of climate change on the growth of a fish, and that ecosystem responses to climate change should be also taken into account.

  12. Fishing, fast growth and climate variability increase the risk of collapse

    PubMed Central

    Pinsky, Malin L.; Byler, David

    2015-01-01

    Species around the world have suffered collapses, and a key question is why some populations are more vulnerable than others. Traditional conservation biology and evidence from terrestrial species suggest that slow-growing populations are most at risk, but interactions between climate variability and harvest dynamics may alter or even reverse this pattern. Here, we test this hypothesis globally. We use boosted regression trees to analyse the influences of harvesting, species traits and climate variability on the risk of collapse (decline below a fixed threshold) across 154 marine fish populations around the world. The most important factor explaining collapses was the magnitude of overfishing, while the duration of overfishing best explained long-term depletion. However, fast growth was the next most important risk factor. Fast-growing populations and those in variable environments were especially sensitive to overfishing, and the risk of collapse was more than tripled for fast-growing when compared with slow-growing species that experienced overfishing. We found little evidence that, in the absence of overfishing, climate variability or fast growth rates alone drove population collapse over the last six decades. Expanding efforts to rapidly adjust harvest pressure to account for climate-driven lows in productivity could help to avoid future collapses, particularly among fast-growing species. PMID:26246548

  13. Fishing, fast growth and climate variability increase the risk of collapse.

    PubMed

    Pinsky, Malin L; Byler, David

    2015-08-22

    Species around the world have suffered collapses, and a key question is why some populations are more vulnerable than others. Traditional conservation biology and evidence from terrestrial species suggest that slow-growing populations are most at risk, but interactions between climate variability and harvest dynamics may alter or even reverse this pattern. Here, we test this hypothesis globally. We use boosted regression trees to analyse the influences of harvesting, species traits and climate variability on the risk of collapse (decline below a fixed threshold) across 154 marine fish populations around the world. The most important factor explaining collapses was the magnitude of overfishing, while the duration of overfishing best explained long-term depletion. However, fast growth was the next most important risk factor. Fast-growing populations and those in variable environments were especially sensitive to overfishing, and the risk of collapse was more than tripled for fast-growing when compared with slow-growing species that experienced overfishing. We found little evidence that, in the absence of overfishing, climate variability or fast growth rates alone drove population collapse over the last six decades. Expanding efforts to rapidly adjust harvest pressure to account for climate-driven lows in productivity could help to avoid future collapses, particularly among fast-growing species. © 2015 The Author(s).

  14. Climate change and marine ecosystems (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chavez, F.

    2013-12-01

    Impacts of climate variability on marine ecosystems are pervasive. Those associated with the interannual El Ni~no phenomena are the most studied and better understood. Longer term variations associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) have become more evident as the present-day instrumental record has increased in length. The biological (chlorophyll to fish) and chemical (nutrients, oxygen, carbon) consequences of these climate-driven variations are discussed with an emphasis on the eastern and equatorial Pacific. During warmer periods biological productivity in the eastern Pacific is reduced and larger mobile organisms dramatically change their abundance and/or geographic distributions. At the same time biological productivity in the western Pacific increases highlighting that present (and future) climate-driven changes in biological productivity and chemical distributions are not (and will not) be uniform. The presentation documents present day variations using global scale information from satellites and in situ databases, model simulations and data collected by intensive local time series. Paradoxically longer term changes associated with phenomena like the Little Ice Age (LIA), captured in the sedimentary record, do not seem to follow the same warm (poor), cold (productive) patterns in the eastern Pacific, in fact these are reversed. The presentation ends with speculation regarding long term changes associated with a warmer world.

  15. Difference in tree growth responses to climate at the upper treeline: Qilian Juniper in the Anyemaqen Mountains.

    PubMed

    Peng, Jianfeng; Gou, Xiaohua; Chen, Fahu; Li, Jinbao; Liu, Puxing; Zhang, Yong; Fang, Keyan

    2008-08-01

    Three ring-width chronologies were developed from Qilian Juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) at the upper treeline along a west-east gradient in the Anyemaqen Mountains. Most chronological statistics, except for mean sensitivity (MS), decreased from west to east. The first principal component (PC1) loadings indicated that stands in a similar climate condition were most important to the variability of radial growth. PC2 loadings decreased from west to east, suggesting the difference of tree-growth between eastern and western Anyemaqen Mountains. Correlations between standard chronologies and climatic factors revealed different climatic influences on radial growth along a west-east gradient in the study area. Temperature of warm season (July-August) was important to the radial growth at the upper treeline in the whole study area. Precipitation of current May was an important limiting factor of tree growth only in the western (drier) upper treeline, whereas precipitation of current September limited tree growth in the eastern (wetter) upper treeline. Response function analysis results showed that there were regional differences between tree growth and climatic factors in various sampling sites of the whole study area. Temperature and precipitation were the important factors influencing tree growth in western (drier) upper treeline. However, tree growth was greatly limited by temperature at the upper treeline in the middle area, and was more limited by precipitation than temperature in the eastern (wetter) upper treeline.

  16. Tree-ring anatomy and carbon isotope ratio show both direct and legacy effects of climate on bimodal xylem formation in Pinus pinea.

    PubMed

    Castagneri, Daniele; Battipaglia, Giovanna; von Arx, Georg; Pacheco, Arturo; Carrer, Marco

    2018-04-24

    Understanding how climate affects xylem formation is critical for predicting the impact of future conditions on tree growth and functioning in the Mediterranean region, which is expected to face warmer and drier conditions. However, mechanisms of growth response to climate at different temporal scales are still largely unknown, being complicated by separation between spring and autumn xylogenesis (bimodal temporal pattern) in most species such as Mediterranean pines. We investigated wood anatomical characteristics and carbon stable isotope composition in Mediterranean Pinus pinea L. along tree-ring series at intra-ring resolution to assess xylem formation processes and responses to intra-annual climate variability. Xylem anatomy was strongly related to environmental conditions occurring a few months before and during the growing season, but was not affected by summer drought. In particular, the lumen diameter of the first earlywood tracheids was related to winter precipitation, whereas the size of tracheids produced later was influenced by mid-spring precipitation. Diameter of latewood tracheids was associated with precipitation in mid-autumn. In contrast, tree-ring carbon isotope composition was mostly related to climate of the previous seasons. Earlywood was likely formed using both recently and formerly assimilated carbon, while latewood relied mostly on carbon accumulated many months prior to its formation. Our integrated approach provided new evidence on the short-term and carry-over effects of climate on the bimodal temporal xylem formation in P. pinea. Investigations on different variables and time scales are necessary to disentangle the complex climate influence on tree growth processes under Mediterranean conditions.

  17. Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus: recent trends and future scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Caminade, Cyril; Medlock, Jolyon M.; Ducheyne, Els; McIntyre, K. Marie; Leach, Steve; Baylis, Matthew; Morse, Andrew P.

    2012-01-01

    The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive species that has the potential to transmit infectious diseases such as dengue and chikungunya fever. Using high-resolution observations and regional climate model scenarios for the future, we investigated the suitability of Europe for A. albopictus using both recent climate and future climate conditions. The results show that southern France, northern Italy, the northern coast of Spain, the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea and western Turkey were climatically suitable areas for the establishment of the mosquito during the 1960–1980s. Over the last two decades, climate conditions have become more suitable for the mosquito over central northwestern Europe (Benelux, western Germany) and the Balkans, while they have become less suitable over southern Spain. Similar trends are likely in the future, with an increased risk simulated over northern Europe and slightly decreased risk over southern Europe. These distribution shifts are related to wetter and warmer conditions favouring the overwintering of A. albopictus in the north, and drier and warmer summers that might limit its southward expansion. PMID:22535696

  18. Agricultural Practice and Regional Climate Interactions in a Coupled Land Surface Mesoscale Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cooley, H. S.; Riley, W. J.; Torn, M. S.

    2003-12-01

    Regional climate affects the timing of harvest for rain-fed crops. In response to dry conditions, for example, farmers may harvest crops earlier than they do under wet conditions. This removal of vegetation alters the land surface characteristics and may, in turn, affect regional climate conditions. We studied the dynamic relationship between land use practice, i.e. winter wheat harvest, and regional climate by applying a coupled climate (MM5) and land-surface (LSM1) model to the ARM-CART region of the Southern Great Plains. We compared early and late harvest scenarios, with winter wheat harvested on June 5 and July 5, respectively. Winter wheat is grown in a fairly uniform belt that accounts for 20% of the total land area over the domain of the ARM-CART. Results showed that harvest dramatically affects energy, momentum, and water fluxes. Regionally-averaged, 2 m air temperatures were 0.5-1\\deg C warmer in the early- compared to late-harvest case, with peak warming of 5\\deg C centered over the harvested area. Soils in the harvested area were drier and warmer in the top 10 cm. Near-surface soil water-filled pore space was reduced by 7% across the region, with a peak drying of 22% centered over the harvested area. Soils were up to 10\\deg C warmer, with area-averaged warming of ~0.6\\deg C at mid-day two weeks after harvest. Differences between scenarios were greatest during an initial two-week dry period. A subsequent wet period greatly reduced these differences.

  19. Response of North American freshwater lakes to simulated future climates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hostetler, S.W.; Small, E.E.

    1999-01-01

    We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO2 doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30??C ever the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.

  20. Vascular plant-mediated controls on atmospheric carbon assimilation and peat carbon decomposition under climate change.

    PubMed

    Gavazov, Konstantin; Albrecht, Remy; Buttler, Alexandre; Dorrepaal, Ellen; Garnett, Mark H; Gogo, Sebastien; Hagedorn, Frank; Mills, Robert T E; Robroek, Bjorn J M; Bragazza, Luca

    2018-03-23

    Climate change can alter peatland plant community composition by promoting the growth of vascular plants. How such vegetation change affects peatland carbon dynamics remains, however, unclear. In order to assess the effect of vegetation change on carbon uptake and release, we performed a vascular plant-removal experiment in two Sphagnum-dominated peatlands that represent contrasting stages of natural vegetation succession along a climatic gradient. Periodic measurements of net ecosystem CO 2 exchange revealed that vascular plants play a crucial role in assuring the potential for net carbon uptake, particularly with a warmer climate. The presence of vascular plants, however, also increased ecosystem respiration, and by using the seasonal variation of respired CO 2 radiocarbon (bomb- 14 C) signature we demonstrate an enhanced heterotrophic decomposition of peat carbon due to rhizosphere priming. The observed rhizosphere priming of peat carbon decomposition was matched by more advanced humification of dissolved organic matter, which remained apparent beyond the plant growing season. Our results underline the relevance of rhizosphere priming in peatlands, especially when assessing the future carbon sink function of peatlands undergoing a shift in vegetation community composition in association with climate change. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Millennium-scale crossdating and inter-annual climate sensitivities of standing California redwoods.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Allyson L; Sillett, Stephen C; Kramer, Russell D

    2014-01-01

    Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California's redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI) helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE) have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood species have

  2. Millennium-Scale Crossdating and Inter-Annual Climate Sensitivities of Standing California Redwoods

    PubMed Central

    Carroll, Allyson L.; Sillett, Stephen C.; Kramer, Russell D.

    2014-01-01

    Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California’s redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI) helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE) have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood species have

  3. Subalpine tree growth, climate, and increasing CO sub 2 : An assessment of recent growth trends. [Pinus balfouriana; P. murrayana; Juniperus occidentalis

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Graumlich, L.J.

    1991-02-01

    Five tree-ring series from foxtail pine (Pinus balfouriana), lodgepole pine (P. murrayana), and western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) collected in the Sierra Nevada, California, were analyzed to determine if the temporal and spatial patterns of recent growth were consistent with the hypothesized CO{sub 2}-induced growth enhancement. Specifically, the author addresses the following questions: (1) can growth trends be explained solely in terms of climatic variation; (2) are recent growth trends unusual with respect to long-term growth records While the results offer no support for the hypothesized CO{sub 2} fertilization effect, they do provide insights into the response of subalpine conifers tomore » climatic variation. Response surfaces demonstrate that precipitation during previous winter and temperature during the current summer interact in controlling growth and that the response can be nonlinear. Although maximum growth rates occur under conditions of high winter precipitation and warm summers for all three species, substantial species-to-species variation occurs in the response to these two variables.« less

  4. Impact of climate change on projected runoff from mountain snowpack of the King’s Rivershed in California

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Central Valley of California, like most dryland agricultural areas in the Southwest United States, relies heavily on winter snowpack for water resources. Projections of future climate in the Sierra Mountains of California calls for a warmer climate regime that will impact the snowpack in the Sie...

  5. From cold to hot: Climatic effects and productivity in Wisconsin dairy farms.

    PubMed

    Qi, L; Bravo-Ureta, B E; Cabrera, V E

    2015-12-01

    This study examined the effects of climatic conditions on dairy farm productivity using panel data for the state of Wisconsin along with alternative stochastic frontier models. A noteworthy feature of this analysis is that Wisconsin is a major dairy-producing area where winters are typically very cold and snowy and summers are hot and humid. Thus, it is an ideal geographical region for examining the effects of a range of climatic factors on dairy production. We identified the effects of temperature and precipitation, both jointly and separately, on milk output. The analysis showed that increasing temperature in summer or in autumn is harmful for dairy production, whereas warmer winters and warmer springs are beneficial. In contrast, more precipitation had a consistent adverse effect on dairy productivity. Overall, the analysis showed that over the past 17 yr, changes in climatic conditions have had a negative effect on Wisconsin dairy farms. Alternative scenarios predict that climate change would lead to a 5 to 11% reduction in dairy production per year between 2020 and 2039 after controlling for other factors. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Climate Forcing Growth Rates: Doubling Down on Our Faustian Bargain

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko

    2013-01-01

    Rahmstorf et al 's (2012) conclusion that observed climate change is comparable to projections, and in some cases exceeds projections, allows further inferences if we can quantify changing climate forcings and compare those with projections. The largest climate forcing is caused by well-mixed long-lived greenhouse gases. Here we illustrate trends of these gases and their climate forcings, and we discuss implications. We focus on quantities that are accurately measured, and we include comparison with fixed scenarios, which helps reduce common misimpressions about how climate forcings are changing. Annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions have shot up in the past decade at about 3/yr, double the rate of the prior three decades (figure 1). The growth rate falls above the range of the IPCC (2001) 'Marker' scenarios, although emissions are still within the entire range considered by the IPCC SRES (2000). The surge in emissions is due to increased coal use (blue curve in figure 1), which now accounts for more than 40 of fossil fuel CO2 emissions.

  7. Climate and Management Controls on Forest Growth and Forest Carbon Balance in the Western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelsey, Katharine Cashman

    Climate change is resulting in a number of rapid changes in forests worldwide. Forests comprise a critical component of the global carbon cycle, and therefore climate-induced changes in forest carbon balance have the potential to create a feedback within the global carbon cycle and affect future trajectories of climate change. In order to further understanding of climate-driven changes in forest carbon balance, I (1) develop a method to improve spatial estimates forest carbon stocks, (2) investigate the effect of climate change and forest management actions on forest recovery and carbon balance following disturbance, and (3) explore the relationship between climate and forest growth, and identify climate-driven trends in forest growth through time, within San Juan National Forest in southwest Colorado, USA. I find that forest carbon estimates based on texture analysis from LandsatTM imagery improve regional forest carbon maps, and this method is particularly useful for estimating carbon stocks in forested regions affected by disturbance. Forest recovery from disturbance is also a critical component of future forest carbon stocks, and my results indicate that both climate and forest management actions have important implications for forest recovery and carbon dynamics following disturbance. Specifically, forest treatments that use woody biomass removed from the forest for electricity production can reduce carbon emissions to the atmosphere, but climate driven changes in fire severity and forest recovery can have the opposite effect on forest carbon stocks. In addition to the effects of disturbance and recovery on forest condition, I also find that climate change is decreasing rates of forest growth in some species, likely in response to warming summer temperatures. These growth declines could result in changes of vegetation composition, or in extreme cases, a shift in vegetation type that would alter forest carbon storage. This work provides insight into both

  8. Solar variability and climate change: An historical perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feldman, Theodore S.

    There is nothing new about the debate over the Sun's influence on terrestrial climate.As early as the late 18th century, widespread concern for the deterioration of the Earth's climate led to speculation about the Sun's role in climate change [Feldman, 1993; Fleming, 1990]. Drawing analogies with variations in the brightness of stars, the British astronomer William Herschel suggested that greater sunspot activity would result in warmer terrestrial climates. Herschel supported his hypothesis by referring to price series for wheat published in Adam Smiths Wealth of Nations [Hufbauer, 1991]. Later, the eminent American physicist Joseph Henry demonstrated by thermopile measurements that, contrary to Herschel's assumption, sunspots were cooler than the unblemished portions of the solar disk.

  9. Ecological constraints increase the climatic debt in forests

    PubMed Central

    Bertrand, Romain; Riofrío-Dillon, Gabriela; Lenoir, Jonathan; Drapier, Jacques; de Ruffray, Patrice; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Loreau, Michel

    2016-01-01

    Biodiversity changes are lagging behind current climate warming. The underlying determinants of this climatic debt are unknown and yet critical to understand the impacts of climate change on the present biota and improve forecasts of biodiversity changes. Here we assess determinants of climatic debt accumulated in French forest herbaceous plant communities between 1987 and 2008 (that is, a 1.05 °C mean difference between the observed and bioindicated temperatures). We show that warmer baseline conditions predispose plant communities to larger climatic debts, and that climate warming exacerbates this response. Forest plant communities, however, are absorbing part of the temperature increase mainly through the species' ability to tolerate changing climate. As climate warming is expected to accelerate during the twenty-first century, plant migration and tolerance to climatic stresses probably will be insufficient to absorb this impact posing threats to the sustainability of forest plant communities. PMID:27561410

  10. Ecological constraints increase the climatic debt in forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertrand, Romain; Riofrío-Dillon, Gabriela; Lenoir, Jonathan; Drapier, Jacques; de Ruffray, Patrice; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Loreau, Michel

    2016-08-01

    Biodiversity changes are lagging behind current climate warming. The underlying determinants of this climatic debt are unknown and yet critical to understand the impacts of climate change on the present biota and improve forecasts of biodiversity changes. Here we assess determinants of climatic debt accumulated in French forest herbaceous plant communities between 1987 and 2008 (that is, a 1.05 °C mean difference between the observed and bioindicated temperatures). We show that warmer baseline conditions predispose plant communities to larger climatic debts, and that climate warming exacerbates this response. Forest plant communities, however, are absorbing part of the temperature increase mainly through the species' ability to tolerate changing climate. As climate warming is expected to accelerate during the twenty-first century, plant migration and tolerance to climatic stresses probably will be insufficient to absorb this impact posing threats to the sustainability of forest plant communities.

  11. Interactions of predominant insects and diseases with climate change in Douglas-fir forests of western Oregon and Washington, U.S.A.

    PubMed

    Agne, Michelle C; Beedlow, Peter A; Shaw, David C; Woodruff, David R; Lee, E Henry; Cline, Steven P; Comeleo, Randy L

    2018-02-01

    Forest disturbance regimes are beginning to show evidence of climate-mediated changes, such as increasing severity of droughts and insect outbreaks. We review the major insects and pathogens affecting the disturbance regime for coastal Douglas-fir forests in western Oregon and Washington State, USA, and ask how future climate changes may influence their role in disturbance ecology. Although the physiological constraints of light, temperature, and moisture largely control tree growth, episodic and chronic disturbances interacting with biological factors have substantial impacts on the structure and functioning of forest ecosystems in this region. Understanding insect and disease interactions is critical to predicting forest response to climate change and the consequences for ecosystem services, such as timber, clean water, fish and wildlife. We focused on future predictions for warmer wetter winters, hotter drier summers, and elevated atmospheric CO 2 to hypothesize the response of Douglas-fir forests to the major insects and diseases influencing this forest type: Douglas-fir beetle, Swiss needle cast, black stain root disease, and laminated root rot. We hypothesize that 1) Douglas-fir beetle and black stain root disease could become more prevalent with increasing, fire, temperature stress, and moisture stress, 2) future impacts of Swiss needle cast are difficult to predict due to uncertainties in May-July leaf wetness, but warmer winters could contribute to intensification at higher elevations, and 3) laminated root rot will be influenced primarily by forest management, rather than climatic change. Furthermore, these biotic disturbance agents interact in complex ways that are poorly understood. Consequently, to inform management decisions, insect and disease influences on disturbance regimes must be characterized specifically by forest type and region in order to accurately capture these interactions in light of future climate-mediated changes.

  12. Radial growth of two dominant montane conifer tree species in response to climate change in North-Central China.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Yuan; Zhang, Wentao; Wang, Mingchang; Kang, Muyi; Dong, Manyu

    2014-01-01

    North-Central China is a region in which the air temperature has clearly increased for several decades. Picea meyeri and Larix principis-rupprechtii are the most dominant co-occurring tree species within the cold coniferous forest belt ranging vertically from 1800 m to 2800 m a.s.l. in this region. Based on a tree-ring analysis of 292 increment cores sampled from 146 trees at different elevations, this study aimed to examine if the radial growth of the two species in response to climate is similar, whether the responses are consistent along altitudinal gradients and which species might be favored in the future driven by the changing climate. The results indicated the following: (1) The two species grew in different rhythms at low and high elevation respectively; (2) Both species displayed inconsistent relationships between radial growth and climate data along altitudinal gradients. The correlation between radial growth and the monthly mean temperature in the spring or summer changed from negative at low elevation into positive at high elevation, whereas those between the radial growth and the total monthly precipitation displayed a change from positive into negative along the elevation gradient. These indicate the different influences of the horizontal climate and vertical mountainous climate on the radial growth of the two species; (3) The species-dependent different response to climate in radial growth appeared mainly in autumn of the previous year. The radial growth of L. principis-rupprechtii displayed negative responses both to temperature and to precipitation in the previous September, October or November, which was not observed in the radial growth of P. meyeri. (4) The radial growth of both species will tend to be increased at high elevation and limited at low elevation, and L. principis-rupprechtii might be more favored in the future, if the temperature keeps rising.

  13. Climate change and tectonic activity during the early Pliocene Warm Period from the ostracod record at Lake Qinghai, northeastern Tibetan Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Fengyan; An, Zhisheng; Chang, Hong; Dodson, John; Qiang, Xiaoke; Yan, Hong; Dong, Jibao; Song, Yougui; Fu, Chaofeng; Li, Xiangzhong

    2017-05-01

    The Early Pliocene Warm Period (EPWP, 5-3 Ma) is sometimes thought to be a useful analogue for a future warmer world, and thus the boundary conditions and drivers of climate in the EPWP may provide valuable lessons for understanding how a future warmer world might unfold. Lake Qinghai is located on the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and is affected by both Monsoon climate and Westerlies circulation. It is sensitive to the climate drivers of these systems. Its sediments, accumulated over the Cenozoic period, are a rich source of information for climate, tectonics and environmental changes of the period. We present a high-resolution ostracod record from a Lake Qinghai sediment core with a record of the period 5.10-2.60 Ma, thus covering the EPWP. Ostracods appear at 4.63 Ma and are most abundant until 3.58 Ma, while a body of water was present at the core site. This suggests a phase of humid climate and an intensified Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM), which is consistent with a warmer and wetter climate in the early Pliocene. Within this period the ostracod record shows some variabilities in lake level with deeper periods suggesting more intense ASM compared to those with shallower water. The disappearance of ostracods at 3.58 Ma may provide evidence for the uplift of Qinghai Nanshan (south of Qinghai Lake) since this is when the ASM intensified.

  14. Climate-associated population declines reverse recovery and threaten future of an iconic high-elevation plant

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krushelnycky, Paul D.; Loope, Lloyd L.; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Starr, Forest; Starr, Kim; Drake, Donald R.; Taylor, Andrew D.; Robichaux, Robert H.

    2013-01-01

    Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai‘i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1–2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management, this iconic species has entered a period of substantial climate-associated decline. Mortality has been highest at the lower end of the distributional range, where most silverswords occur, and the strong association of annual population growth rates with patterns of precipitation suggests an increasing frequency of lethal water stress. Local climate data confirm trends toward warmer and drier conditions on the mountain, and signify a bleak outlook for silverswords if these trends continue. The silversword example foreshadows trouble for diversity in other biological hotspots, and illustrates how even well-protected and relatively abundant species may succumb to climate-induced stresses.

  15. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

    Treesearch

    Xiaohui Feng; María Uriarte; Grizelle González; Sasha Reed; Jill Thompson; Jess K. Zimmerman; Lora Murphy

    2018-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very...

  16. Climate-growth relationships for largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) across three southeastern USA states

    Treesearch

    Andrew L. Rypel

    2009-01-01

    The role of climate variability in the ecology of freshwater fishes is of increasing interest. However, there are relatively few tools available for examining how freshwater fish populations respond to climate variations. Here, I apply tree-ring techniques to incremental growth patterns in largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides Lacepe`de) otoliths to explore...

  17. Effect of warming and flow rate conditions of blood warmers on red blood cell integrity.

    PubMed

    Poder, T G; Pruneau, D; Dorval, J; Thibault, L; Fisette, J-F; Bédard, S K; Jacques, A; Beauregard, P

    2016-11-01

    Fluid warmers are routinely used to reduce the risk of hypothermia and cardiac complications associated with the infusion of cold blood products. However, warming blood products could generate haemolysis. This study was undertaken to compare the impact of temperature of blood warmers on the per cent haemolysis of packed red blood cells (RBCs) heated at different flow rates as well as non-flow conditions. Infusion warmers used were calibrated at 41·5°C ± 0·5°C and 37·5°C ± 0·5°C. Cold RBC units stored at 4°C in AS-3 (n = 30), aged 30-39 days old, were divided into half units before being allocated under two different scenarios (i.e. infusion pump or syringe). Blood warmers were effective to warm cold RBCs to 37·5°C or 41·5°C when used in conjunction with an infusion pump at flow rate up to 600 ml/h. However, when the warmed blood was held in a syringe for various periods of time, such as may occur in neonatal transfusions, the final temperature was below the expected requirements with measurement as low as 33·1°C. Increasing the flow with an infusion pump increased haemolysis in RBCs from 0·2% to up to 2·1% at a flow rate of 600 ml/h regardless of the warming device used (P < 0·05). No relevant increase of haemolysis was observed using a syringe. The use of a blood warmer adjusted to 41·5°C is probably the best choice for reducing the risk of hypothermia for the patient without generating haemolysis. However, we should be cautious with the use of an infusion pump for RBC transfusion, particularly at high flow rates. © 2016 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

  18. Genetic variation in Pinus strobiformis growth and drought tolerance from southwestern US populations.

    PubMed

    Goodrich, Betsy A; Waring, Kristen M; Kolb, Thomas E

    2016-10-01

    The persistence of some tree species is threatened by combinations of novel abiotic and biotic stressors. To examine the hypothesis that Pinus strobiformis Engelm., a tree threatened by an invasive forest pathogen and a changing climate, exhibits intraspecific genetic variation in adaptive traits, we conducted a common garden study of seedlings at one location with two watering regimes using 24 populations. Four key findings emerged: (i) growth and physiological traits were low to moderately differentiated among populations but differentiation was high for some traits in water-stressed populations; (ii) seedlings from warmer climates grew larger, had higher stomatal density and were more water-use efficient (as measured by the carbon isotope ratio) than populations from colder climates; (iii) seedlings from the northern edge of the species' distribution had lower water-use efficiency, higher stomatal conductance, slower growth and longer survival in a lethal drought experiment compared with seedlings from more southern populations; and (iv) based on non-metric multidimensional scaling analyses, populations clustered into southern and northern groups, which did not correspond to current seed transfer zones. Our discovery of a clinal geographic pattern of genetic variation in adaptive traits of P. strobiformis seedlings will be useful in developing strategies to maintain the species during ongoing climate change and in the face of an invasive pathogen. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Diverse growth trends and climate responses across Eurasia’s boreal forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hellmann, Lena; Agafonov, Leonid; Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik; Churakova (Sidorova, Olga; Düthorn, Elisabeth; Esper, Jan; Hülsmann, Lisa; Kirdyanov, Alexander V.; Moiseev, Pavel; Myglan, Vladimir S.; Nikolaev, Anatoly N.; Reinig, Frederick; Schweingruber, Fritz H.; Solomina, Olga; Tegel, Willy; Büntgen, Ulf

    2016-07-01

    The area covered by boreal forests accounts for ˜16% of the global and 22% of the Northern Hemisphere landmass. Changes in the productivity and functioning of this circumpolar biome not only have strong effects on species composition and diversity at regional to larger scales, but also on the Earth’s carbon cycle. Although temporal inconsistency in the response of tree growth to temperature has been reported from some locations at the higher northern latitudes, a systematic dendroecological network assessment is still missing for most of the boreal zone. Here, we analyze the geographical patterns of changes in summer temperature and precipitation across northern Eurasia >60 °N since 1951 AD, as well as the growth trends and climate responses of 445 Pinus, Larix and Picea ring width chronologies in the same area and period. In contrast to widespread summer warming, fluctuations in precipitation and tree growth are spatially more diverse and overall less distinct. Although the influence of summer temperature on ring formation is increasing with latitude and distinct moisture effects are restricted to a few southern locations, growth sensitivity to June-July temperature variability is only significant at 16.6% of all sites (p ≤ 0.01). By revealing complex climate constraints on the productivity of Eurasia’s northern forests, our results question the a priori suitability of boreal tree-ring width chronologies for reconstructing summer temperatures. This study further emphasizes regional climate differences and their role on the dynamics of boreal ecosystems, and also underlines the importance of free data access to facilitate the compilation and evaluation of massively replicated and updated dendroecological networks.

  20. Impact of choice of future climate change projection on growth chamber experimental outcomes: a preliminary study in potato.

    PubMed

    Leisner, Courtney P; Wood, Joshua C; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Tang, Ying; Douches, Dave S; Robin Buell, C; Winkler, Julie A

    2018-04-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture is essential to ensure adequate future food production. Controlled growth experiments provide an effective tool for assessing the complex effects of climate change. However, a review of the use of climate projections in 57 previously published controlled growth studies found that none considered within-season variations in projected future temperature change, and few considered regional differences in future warming. A fixed, often arbitrary, temperature perturbation typically was applied for the entire growing season. This study investigates the utility of employing more complex climate change scenarios in growth chamber experiments. A case study in potato was performed using three dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the mid-twenty-first century that differ in terms of the timing during the growing season of the largest projected temperature changes. The climate projections were used in growth chamber experiments for four elite potato cultivars commonly planted in Michigan's major potato growing region. The choice of climate projection had a significant influence on the sign and magnitude of the projected changes in aboveground biomass and total tuber count, whereas all projections suggested an increase in total tuber weight and a decrease in specific gravity, a key market quality trait for potato, by mid-century. These results demonstrate that the use of more complex climate projections that extend beyond a simple incremental change can provide additional insights into the future impacts of climate change on crop production and the accompanying uncertainty.

  1. Younger Dryas cooling and the Greenland climate response to CO2.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zhengyu; Carlson, Anders E; He, Feng; Brady, Esther C; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Briegleb, Bruce P; Wehrenberg, Mark; Clark, Peter U; Wu, Shu; Cheng, Jun; Zhang, Jiaxu; Noone, David; Zhu, Jiang

    2012-07-10

    Greenland ice-core δ(18)O-temperature reconstructions suggest a dramatic cooling during the Younger Dryas (YD; 12.9-11.7 ka), with temperatures being as cold as the earlier Oldest Dryas (OD; 18.0-14.6 ka) despite an approximately 50 ppm rise in atmospheric CO(2). Such YD cooling implies a muted Greenland climate response to atmospheric CO(2), contrary to physical predictions of an enhanced high-latitude response to future increases in CO(2). Here we show that North Atlantic sea surface temperature reconstructions as well as transient climate model simulations suggest that the YD over Greenland should be substantially warmer than the OD by approximately 5 °C in response to increased atmospheric CO(2). Additional experiments with an isotope-enabled model suggest that the apparent YD temperature reconstruction derived from the ice-core δ(18)O record is likely an artifact of an altered temperature-δ(18)O relationship due to changing deglacial atmospheric circulation. Our results thus suggest that Greenland climate was warmer during the YD relative to the OD in response to rising atmospheric CO(2), consistent with sea surface temperature reconstructions and physical predictions, and has a sensitivity approximately twice that found in climate models for current climate due to an enhanced albedo feedback during the last deglaciation.

  2. Climate Controls on Tree Growth in the Western Mediterranean

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Touchan, Ramzi; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Meko, David M.; Kerchouche, Dalila; Slimani, Said; Ilmen, Rachid; Hasnaoui, Fouad; Guibal, Frederic; Canarerim Hesys Hykui; Sanchez-Salguero, Raul; hide

    2017-01-01

    The first large-scale network of tree-ring chronologies from the western Mediterranean (WM; 32 deg N-43 deg N, 10 deg W-17 deg E) is described and analyzed to identify the seasonal climatic signal in indices of annual ring width. Correlation and rotated empirical orthogonal function analyses are applied to 85 tree-ring series and corresponding gridded climate data to assess the climate signal embedded in the network. Chronologies range in length from 80 to 1129 years. Monthly correlations and partial correlations show overall positive associations for Pinus halepensis (PIHA) and Cedrus atlantica (CDAT) with winter (December-February) and spring (March-May) precipitation across this network. In both seasons, the precipitation correlation with PIHA is stronger, while CDAT chronologies tend to be longer. A combination of positive correlations between growth and winter-summer precipitation and negative partial correlations with growing season temperatures suggests that chronologies in at least part of the network reflect soil moisture and the integrated effects of precipitation and evapotranspiration signal. The range of climate response observed across this network reflects a combination of both species and geographic influences. Western Moroccan chronologies have the strongest association with the North Atlantic Oscillation.

  3. Tropical rain forest tree growth and atmospheric carbon dynamics linked to interannual temperature variation during 1984–2000

    PubMed Central

    Clark, D. A.; Piper, S. C.; Keeling, C. D.; Clark, D. B.

    2003-01-01

    During 1984–2000, canopy tree growth in old-growth tropical rain forest at La Selva, Costa Rica, varied >2-fold among years. The trees' annual diameter increments in this 16-yr period were negatively correlated with annual means of daily minimum temperatures. The tree growth variations also negatively covaried with the net carbon exchange of the terrestrial tropics as a whole, as inferred from nearly pole-to-pole measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) interpreted by an inverse tracer–transport model. Strong reductions in tree growth and large inferred tropical releases of CO2 to the atmosphere occurred during the record-hot 1997–1998 El Niño. These and other recent findings are consistent with decreased net primary production in tropical forests in the warmer years of the last two decades. As has been projected by recent process model studies, such a sensitivity of tropical forest productivity to on-going climate change would accelerate the rate of atmospheric CO2 accumulation. PMID:12719545

  4. Climate change in the North American Arctic: A one health perspective

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Climate change is expected to increase the prevalence of acute and chronic diseases among human and animal populations within the Arctic and sub-Arctic latitudes of North America. Warmer temperatures are expected to increase disease risks from food-borne pathogens, water-borne diseases, and vector-...

  5. Projected Impact of Urban Growth on Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amato, Federico; Murgante, Beniamino; Martellozzo, Federico

    2017-04-01

    Human activities on land use such as intensive agricultural techniques and urbanization are generating a number of social and economic benefit for contemporary society. Besides, these phenomena are one of the most significant causes of Land Degradation. Firstly, intensive agriculture is on the one hand creating an advantage in the short-period in terms of food production, while on the other is producing serious long-period problems in terms of loss of ecosystem services, including some important for agriculture itself. Secondly, the rapid growth of urban areas in recent decades is generating deep environmental issues. The World Urbanization Prospect by the United Nations (UN) shows that more than half of the world's population today (54%) lives in urban areas. This figure was only 30% in 1950, and estimates are that it will rise to 66% by 2050. Urban growth is responsible for the increase of air pollution, waste production, energy consumption, and land take. Moreover, the expansion of urban areas is making the problem of urban heat islands more relevant, and studies are proving how land cover changes are among the main factors that affect local microclimates. Consequently, territorial planning will play an important role in the fight to mitigate the effects of climate change, as land cover has a significant impact on the energy exchanges between the earth and the atmosphere. This study couples urban growth simulation models based on cellular automata to multiple linear regression techniques that are used to formulate equations for predicting the effects of simulated urban development on soil surface temperature. The proposed methodology is applied to the case study of the Italian national territory, considering various alternative scenarios of land use changes and of their impact on local surface temperatures. The results show that the areas with the greatest urban pressure might be subject to significant climatic changes due to the increased impact of urban heat

  6. Population trends in northern spotted owls: Associations with climate in the Pacific Northwest

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Glenn, E.M.; Anthony, R.G.; Forsman, E.D.

    2010-01-01

    We used reverse time capture-mark-recapture models to describe associations between rate of population change (??) and climate for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) at six long-term study areas in Washington and Oregon, USA. Populations in three of six areas showed strong evidence of declining populations, while populations in two additional areas were likely declining as well. At four areas, ?? was positively associated with wetter-than-normal conditions during the growing season, which likely affects prey availability. Lambda was also negatively associated with cold, wet winters and nesting seasons, and the number of hot summer days. The amount of annual variation in ?? accounted for by climate varied across study areas (3-85%). Rate of population change was more sensitive to adult survival than to recruitment; however, there was considerable variation among years and across study areas for all demographic rates. While annual survival was more closely related to regional climate conditions, recruitment was often associated with local weather. In addition to climate, declines in recruitment at four of six areas were associated with increased presence of barred owls. Climate change models predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest in the first half of the 21st century. Our results indicate that these conditions have the potential to negatively affect annual survival, recruitment, and consequently population growth rates for northern spotted owls. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Early kit mortality and growth in farmed mink are affected by litter size rather than nest climate.

    PubMed

    Schou, T M; Malmkvist, J

    2017-09-01

    We investigated the effects of nest box climate on early mink kit mortality and growth. We hypothesised that litters in warm nest boxes experience less hypothermia-induced mortality and higher growth rates during the 1st week of life. This study included data from 749, 1-year-old breeding dams with access to nesting materials. Kits were weighed on days 1 and 7, dead kits were collected daily from birth until day 7 after birth, and nest climate was measured continuously from days 1 to 6. We tested the influences of the following daily temperature (T) and humidity (H) parameters on the number of live-born kit deaths and kit growth: T mean, T min, T max, T var (fluctuation) and H mean. The nest microclimate experienced by the kits was buffered against the ambient climate, with higher temperatures and reduced climate fluctuation. Most (77.0%) live-born kit deaths in the 1st week occurred on days 0 and 1. Seven of 15 climate parameters on days 1 to 3 had significant effects on live-born kit mortality. However, conflicting effects among days, marginal effects and late effects indicated that climate was not the primary cause of kit mortality. Five of 30 climate parameters had significant effects on kit growth. Few and conflicting effects indicated that the climate effect on growth was negligible. One exception was that large nest temperature fluctuations on day 1 were associated with reduced deaths of live-born kit (P<0.001) and increased kit growth (P=0.003). Litter size affected kit vitality; larger total litter size at birth was associated with greater risks of kit death (P<0.001) and reduced growth (P<0.001). The number of living kits in litters had the opposite effect, as kits in large liveborn litters had a reduced risk of death (P<0.001) and those with large mean litter size on days 1 to 7 had increased growth (P=0.026). Nest box temperature had little effect on early kit survival and growth, which could be due to dams' additional maternal behaviour. Therefore, we

  8. Lagging adaptation to warming climate in Arabidopsis thaliana.

    PubMed

    Wilczek, Amity M; Cooper, Martha D; Korves, Tonia M; Schmitt, Johanna

    2014-06-03

    If climate change outpaces the rate of adaptive evolution within a site, populations previously well adapted to local conditions may decline or disappear, and banked seeds from those populations will be unsuitable for restoring them. However, if such adaptational lag has occurred, immigrants from historically warmer climates will outperform natives and may provide genetic potential for evolutionary rescue. We tested for lagging adaptation to warming climate using banked seeds of the annual weed Arabidopsis thaliana in common garden experiments in four sites across the species' native European range: Valencia, Spain; Norwich, United Kingdom; Halle, Germany; and Oulu, Finland. Genotypes originating from geographic regions near the planting site had high relative fitness in each site, direct evidence for broad-scale geographic adaptation in this model species. However, genotypes originating in sites historically warmer than the planting site had higher average relative fitness than local genotypes in every site, especially at the northern range limit in Finland. This result suggests that local adaptive optima have shifted rapidly with recent warming across the species' native range. Climatic optima also differed among seasonal germination cohorts within the Norwich site, suggesting that populations occurring where summer germination is common may have greater evolutionary potential to persist under future warming. If adaptational lag has occurred over just a few decades in banked seeds of an annual species, it may be an important consideration for managing longer-lived species, as well as for attempts to conserve threatened populations through ex situ preservation.

  9. Lagging adaptation to warming climate in Arabidopsis thaliana

    PubMed Central

    Wilczek, Amity M.; Cooper, Martha D.; Korves, Tonia M.; Schmitt, Johanna

    2014-01-01

    If climate change outpaces the rate of adaptive evolution within a site, populations previously well adapted to local conditions may decline or disappear, and banked seeds from those populations will be unsuitable for restoring them. However, if such adaptational lag has occurred, immigrants from historically warmer climates will outperform natives and may provide genetic potential for evolutionary rescue. We tested for lagging adaptation to warming climate using banked seeds of the annual weed Arabidopsis thaliana in common garden experiments in four sites across the species’ native European range: Valencia, Spain; Norwich, United Kingdom; Halle, Germany; and Oulu, Finland. Genotypes originating from geographic regions near the planting site had high relative fitness in each site, direct evidence for broad-scale geographic adaptation in this model species. However, genotypes originating in sites historically warmer than the planting site had higher average relative fitness than local genotypes in every site, especially at the northern range limit in Finland. This result suggests that local adaptive optima have shifted rapidly with recent warming across the species’ native range. Climatic optima also differed among seasonal germination cohorts within the Norwich site, suggesting that populations occurring where summer germination is common may have greater evolutionary potential to persist under future warming. If adaptational lag has occurred over just a few decades in banked seeds of an annual species, it may be an important consideration for managing longer-lived species, as well as for attempts to conserve threatened populations through ex situ preservation. PMID:24843140

  10. Improving the Accuracy of Estimation of Climate Extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zolina, Olga; Detemmerman, Valery; Trenberth, Kevin E.

    2010-12-01

    Workshop on Metrics and Methodologies of Estimation of Extreme Climate Events; Paris, France, 27-29 September 2010; Climate projections point toward more frequent and intense weather and climate extremes such as heat waves, droughts, and floods, in a warmer climate. These projections, together with recent extreme climate events, including flooding in Pakistan and the heat wave and wildfires in Russia, highlight the need for improved risk assessments to help decision makers and the public. But accurate analysis and prediction of risk of extreme climate events require new methodologies and information from diverse disciplines. A recent workshop sponsored by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and hosted at United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) headquarters in France brought together, for the first time, a unique mix of climatologists, statisticians, meteorologists, oceanographers, social scientists, and risk managers (such as those from insurance companies) who sought ways to improve scientists' ability to characterize and predict climate extremes in a changing climate.

  11. Post-1980 shifts in the sensitivity of boreal tree growth to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics and seasonal climate. Tree growth responses to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ols, Clémentine; Trouet, Valerie; Girardin, Martin P.; Hofgaard, Annika; Bergeron, Yves; Drobyshev, Igor

    2018-06-01

    The mid-20th century changes in North Atlantic Ocean dynamics, e.g. slow-down of the Atlantic meridional overturning thermohaline circulation (AMOC), have been considered as early signs of tipping points in the Earth climate system. We hypothesized that these changes have significantly altered boreal forest growth dynamics in northeastern North America (NA) and northern Europe (NE), two areas geographically adjacent to the North Atlantic Ocean. To test our hypothesis, we investigated tree growth responses to seasonal large-scale oceanic and atmospheric indices (the AMOC, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO)) and climate (temperature and precipitation) from 1950 onwards, both at the regional and local levels. We developed a network of 6876 black spruce (NA) and 14437 Norway spruce (NE) tree-ring width series, extracted from forest inventory databases. Analyses revealed post-1980 shifts from insignificant to significant tree growth responses to summer oceanic and atmospheric dynamics both in NA (negative responses to NAO and AO indices) and NE (positive response to NAO and AMOC indices). The strength and sign of these responses varied, however, through space with stronger responses in western and central boreal Quebec and in central and northern boreal Sweden, and across scales with stronger responses at the regional level than at the local level. Emerging post-1980 associations with North Atlantic Ocean dynamics synchronized with stronger tree growth responses to local seasonal climate, particularly to winter temperatures. Our results suggest that ongoing and future anomalies in oceanic and atmospheric dynamics may impact forest growth and carbon sequestration to a greater extent than previously thought. Cross-scale differences in responses to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics highlight complex interplays in the effects of local climate and ocean-atmosphere dynamics on tree growth processes and advocate for the use of different spatial scales in

  12. Climate change in safety assessment of a surface disposal facility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leterme, B.

    2012-04-01

    The Belgian Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials (ONDRAF/NIRAS) aims to develop a surface disposal facility for LILW-SL in Dessel (North-East of Belgium). Given the time scale of interest for the safety assessment (several millennia), a number of parameters in the modelling chain near field - geosphere - biosphere may be influenced by climate change. The present study discusses how potential climate change impact was accounted for the following quantities: (i) near field infiltration through the repository earth cover, (ii) partial pressure of CO2 in the water infiltrating the cover and draining the concrete, and (iii) groundwater recharge in the vicinity of the site. For these three parameters, the impact of climate change is assessed using climatic analogue stations, i.e. stations presently under climatic conditions corresponding to a given climate state. Results indicate that : (i) Using Gijon (Spain) as representative analogue station for the next millennia, infiltration at the bottom of the soil layer towards the modules of the facility is expected to increase (from 346 to 413 mm/y) under a subtropical climate. Although no colder climate is foreseen in the next 10 000 years, the approach was also tested with analogue stations for a colder climate state. Using Sisimiut (Greenland) as representative analogue station, infiltration is expected to decrease (109 mm/y). (ii) Due to changes of the partial pressure of CO2 in the soil water, cement degradation is estimated to occur more rapidly under a warmer climate. (iii) A decrease of long-term annual average groundwater recharge by 12% was simulated using Gijon representative analogue (from 314 to 276 mm), although total rainfall was higher (947 mm) in the warmer climate compared to the current temperate climate (899 mm). For a colder climate state, groundwater recharge simulated for the representative analogue Sisimiut showed a decrease by 69% compared to current climate conditions. The

  13. Climatic and anthropogenic changes in Western Switzerland: Impacts on water stress.

    PubMed

    Milano, Marianne; Reynard, Emmanuel; Köplin, Nina; Weingartner, Rolf

    2015-12-01

    Recent observed hydro-climatic changes in mountainous areas are of concern as they may directly affect capacity to fulfill water needs. The canton of Vaud in Western Switzerland is an example of such a region as it has experienced water shortage episodes during the past decade. Based on an integrated modeling framework, this study explores how hydro-climatic conditions and water needs could evolve in mountain environments and assesses their potential impacts on water stress by the 2060 horizon. Flows were simulated based on a daily semi-distributed hydrological model. Future changes were derived from Swiss climate scenarios based on two regional climate models. Regarding water needs, the authorities of the canton of Vaud provided a population growth scenario while irrigation and livestock trends followed a business-as-usual scenario. Currently, the canton of Vaud experiences moderate water stress from June to August, except in its Alpine area where no stress is noted. In the 2060 horizon, water needs could exceed 80% of the rivers' available resources in low- to mid-altitude environments in mid-summer. This arises from the combination of drier and warmer climate that leads to longer and more severe low flows, and increasing urban (+40%) and irrigation (+25%) water needs. Highlighting regional differences supports the development of sustainable development pathways to reduce water tensions. Based on a quantitative assessment, this study also calls for broader impact studies including water quality issues. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a Western river's water quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Records, R. M.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W. G.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K. C.

    2014-05-01

    An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrients loads in the historically snow melt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, Western United States. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that in the Sprague River (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high flow season under warmer-wetter climate projections, or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

  15. Seasonal Differences in Climatic Controls of Vegetation Growth in the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region of China.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, H.

    2017-12-01

    Seasonal differences in climatic controls of vegetation growth in the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region of China Bin He1 , Haiyan Wan11 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China Corresponding author: Bin He, email addresses: hebin@bnu.edu.cnPhone:+861058806506, Address: Beijing Normal University, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. Email addresses of co-authors: wanghaiyan@mail.bnu.edu.cnABSTRACTLaunched in 2000, the Beiing-Tainjin Sand Source Controlling Project (BTSSCP) is an ecological restoration project intended to prevent desertification in China. Evidence from multiple sources has confirmed increases in vegetation growth in the BTSSCP region since the initiation of the project. Precipitation and related soil moisture conditions typically are considered to be the main drivers of vegetation growth in this arid region. However, by investigating the relationships between vegetation growth and corresponding climatic factors, we identified seasonal variation in the climatic constraints of vegetation growth. In spring, vegetation growth is stimulated mainly by elevated temperature, whereas precipitation is the lead driver of summer greening. In autumn, positive effects of both temperature and precipitation on vegetation growth were observed. Furthermore, strong biosphere-atmosphere interactions were observed in this region. Spring warming promotes vegetation growth, but also reduces soil moisture. Summer greening has a strong cooling effect on land surface temperature. These results indicate that 1) precipitation-based projections of vegetation growth may be misleading; and 2) the ecological and environment consequences of ecological projects should be comprehensively evaluated. KEYWORDS: vegetation growth, climatic drivers, seasonal variation, BTSSCP

  16. Modeling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Pacific Salmon Culture Programs: An Example at Winthrop National Fish Hatchery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanson, Kyle C.; Peterson, Douglas P.

    2014-09-01

    Hatcheries have long been used in an attempt to mitigate for declines in wild stocks of Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.), though the conservation benefit of hatcheries is a topic of ongoing debate. Irrespective of conservation benefits, a fundamental question is whether hatcheries will be able to function as they have in the past given anticipated future climate conditions. To begin to answer this question, we developed a deterministic modeling framework to evaluate how climate change may affect hatcheries that rear Pacific salmon. The framework considers the physiological tolerances for each species, incorporates a temperature-driven growth model, and uses two metrics commonly monitored by hatchery managers to determine the impacts of changes in water temperature and availability on hatchery rearing conditions. As a case study, we applied the model to the US Fish and Wildlife Service's Winthrop National Fish Hatchery. We projected that hatchery environmental conditions remained within the general physiological tolerances for Chinook salmon in the 2040s (assuming A1B greenhouse gas emissions scenario), but that warmer water temperatures in summer accelerated juvenile salmon growth. Increased growth during summer coincided with periods when water availability should also be lower, thus increasing the likelihood of physiological stress in juvenile salmon. The identification of these climate sensitivities led to a consideration of potential mitigation strategies such as chilling water, altering rations, or modifying rearing cycles. The framework can be refined with new information, but in its present form, it provides a consistent, repeatable method to assess the vulnerability of hatcheries to predicted climate change.

  17. What are the physiological and immunological responses of coral to climate warming and disease?

    PubMed

    Mydlarz, Laura D; McGinty, Elizabeth S; Harvell, C Drew

    2010-03-15

    Coral mortality due to climate-associated stress is likely to increase as the oceans get warmer and more acidic. Coral bleaching and an increase in infectious disease are linked to above average sea surface temperatures. Despite the uncertain future for corals, recent studies have revealed physiological mechanisms that improve coral resilience to the effects of climate change. Some taxa of bleached corals can increase heterotrophic food intake and exchange symbionts for more thermally tolerant clades; this plasticity can increase the probability of surviving lethal thermal stress. Corals can fight invading pathogens with a suite of innate immune responses that slow and even arrest pathogen growth and reduce further tissue damage. Several of these responses, such as the melanin cascade, circulating amoebocytes and antioxidants, are induced in coral hosts during pathogen invasion or disease. Some components of immunity show thermal resilience and are enhanced during temperature stress and even in bleached corals. These examples suggest some plasticity and resilience to cope with environmental change and even the potential for evolution of resistance to disease. However, there is huge variability in responses among coral species, and the rate of climate change is projected to be so rapid that only extremely hardy taxa are likely to survive the projected changes in climate stressors.

  18. Towards a More Biologically-meaningful Climate Characterization: Variability in Space and Time at Multiple Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christianson, D. S.; Kaufman, C. G.; Kueppers, L. M.; Harte, J.

    2013-12-01

    Sampling limitations and current modeling capacity justify the common use of mean temperature values in summaries of historical climate and future projections. However, a monthly mean temperature representing a 1-km2 area on the landscape is often unable to capture the climate complexity driving organismal and ecological processes. Estimates of variability in addition to mean values are more biologically meaningful and have been shown to improve projections of range shifts for certain species. Historical analyses of variance and extreme events at coarse spatial scales, as well as coarse-scale projections, show increasing temporal variability in temperature with warmer means. Few studies have considered how spatial variance changes with warming, and analysis for both temporal and spatial variability across scales is lacking. It is unclear how the spatial variability of fine-scale conditions relevant to plant and animal individuals may change given warmer coarse-scale mean values. A change in spatial variability will affect the availability of suitable habitat on the landscape and thus, will influence future species ranges. By characterizing variability across both temporal and spatial scales, we can account for potential bias in species range projections that use coarse climate data and enable improvements to current models. In this study, we use temperature data at multiple spatial and temporal scales to characterize spatial and temporal variability under a warmer climate, i.e., increased mean temperatures. Observational data from the Sierra Nevada (California, USA), experimental climate manipulation data from the eastern and western slopes of the Rocky Mountains (Colorado, USA), projected CMIP5 data for California (USA) and observed PRISM data (USA) allow us to compare characteristics of a mean-variance relationship across spatial scales ranging from sub-meter2 to 10,000 km2 and across temporal scales ranging from hours to decades. Preliminary spatial analysis at

  19. Effect of global climate change on rare trees and shrubs

    Treesearch

    Margaret S. Devall

    2008-01-01

    In the past, climate has fluctuated with periodsof cooler, warmer, drier or wetter weather thanat present. Plants have been able to adapt,but widespread, rapid warming could be disastrousfor rare trees and shrubs – i.e. thosenative species that are among an area’s most

  20. Predicting Summer Dryness Under a Warmer Climate: Modeling Land Surface Processes in the Midwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winter, J. M.; Eltahir, E. A.

    2009-12-01

    One of the most significant impacts of climate change is the potential alteration of local hydrologic cycles over agriculturally productive areas. As the world’s food supply continues to be taxed by its burgeoning population, a greater percentage of arable land will need to be utilized and land currently producing food must become more efficient. This study seeks to quantify the effects of climate change on soil moisture in the American Midwest. A series of 24-year numerical experiments were conducted to assess the ability of Regional Climate Model Version 3 coupled to Integrated Biosphere Simulator (RegCM3-IBIS) and Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme 1e (RegCM3-BATS1e) to simulate the observed hydroclimatology of the midwestern United States. Model results were evaluated using NASA Surface Radiation Budget, NASA Earth Radiation Budget Experiment, Illinois State Water Survey, Climate Research Unit Time Series 2.1, Global Soil Moisture Data Bank, and regional-scale estimations of evapotranspiration. The response of RegCM3-IBIS and RegCM3-BATS1e to a surrogate climate change scenario, a warming of 3oC at the boundaries and doubling of CO2, was explored. Precipitation increased significantly during the spring and summer in both RegCM3-IBIS and RegCM3-BATS1e, leading to additional runoff. In contrast, enhancement of evapotranspiration and shortwave radiation were modest. Soil moisture remained relatively unchanged in RegCM3-IBIS, while RegCM3-BATS1e exhibited some fall and winter wetting.

  1. Tracking climate impacts on the migratory monarch butterfly

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zipkin, Elise F.; Ries, Leslie; Reeves, Rick; Regetz, James; Oberhauser, Karen S.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate on migratory species is complicated by the fact that these species travel through several climates that may be changing in diverse ways throughout their complete migratory cycle. Most studies are not designed to tease out the direct and indirect effects of climate at various stages along the migration route. We assess the impacts of spring and summer climate conditions on breeding monarch butterflies, a species that completes its annual migration cycle over several generations. No single, broad-scale climate metric can explain summer breeding phenology or the substantial year-to-year fluctuations observed in population abundances. As such, we built a Poisson regression model to help explain annual arrival times and abundances in the Midwestern United States. We incorporated the climate conditions experienced both during a spring migration/breeding phase in Texas as well as during subsequent arrival and breeding during the main recruitment period in Ohio. Using data from a state-wide butterfly monitoring network in Ohio, our results suggest that climate acts in conflicting ways during the spring and summer seasons. High spring precipitation in Texas is associated with the largest annual population growth in Ohio and the earliest arrival to the summer breeding ground, as are intermediate spring temperatures in Texas. On the other hand, the timing of monarch arrivals to the summer breeding grounds is not affected by climate conditions within Ohio. Once in Ohio for summer breeding, precipitation has minimal impacts on overall abundances, whereas warmer summer temperatures are generally associated with the highest expected abundances, yet this effect is mitigated by the average seasonal temperature of each location in that the warmest sites receive no benefit of above average summer temperatures. Our results highlight the complex relationship between climate and performance for a migrating species and suggest that attempts to

  2. Climate's Role in Terroir

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, G. V.

    2012-12-01

    The marriage between a given winegrape cultivar planted in its ideal climate, over favorable topography and physical soil characteristics, combine to create the potential to produce fine wine. The French term terroir embodies this potential as a holistic concept that relates to both environmental and cultural factors that together influence the grape growing to wine production continuum. While the landscape, geology, soil, and climate strongly interact to influence the vine's balance of nutrients and water, climate is clearly of prevailing importance in that it limits where grapes can be grown at both the global and site scale. This talk will review the nature of climate's role in terroir through a discussion of the structure of climate in wine regions globally and how this structure influences cultivar suitability. Furthermore, the talk will use two of the most commonly planted red wine cultivars as examples - Pinot Noir and Cabernet Sauvignon - providing details on the historic, current, and future climate structure of wine regions growing these cultivars. In general the examination reveals that cool climate cultivars tend to have a narrower climate niche for high quality wine production, than do warmer climate cultivars, with less range of adaptation. Furthermore, the range of the climate suitability of these two cultivars shows that potentially new terroirs for each are waiting to be found.

  3. Climate-diameter growth relationships of black spruce and jack pine trees in boreal Ontario, Canada.

    PubMed

    Subedi, Nirmal; Sharma, Mahadev

    2013-02-01

    To predict the long-term effects of climate change - global warming and changes in precipitation - on the diameter (radial) growth of jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) and black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.) trees in boreal Ontario, we modified an existing diameter growth model to include climate variables. Diameter chronologies of 927 jack pine and 1173 black spruce trees, growing in the area from 47°N to 50°N and 80°W to 92°W, were used to develop diameter growth models in a nonlinear mixed-effects approach. Our results showed that the variables long-term average of mean growing season temperature, precipitation during wettest quarter, and total precipitation during growing season were significant (alpha = 0.05) in explaining variation in diameter growth of the sample trees. Model results indicated that higher temperatures during the growing season would increase the diameter growth of jack pine trees, but decrease that of black spruce trees. More precipitation during the wettest quarter would favor the diameter growth of both species. On the other hand, a wetter growing season, which may decrease radiation inputs, increase nutrient leaching, and reduce the decomposition rate, would reduce the diameter growth of both species. Moreover, our results indicated that future (2041-2070) diameter growth rate may differ from current (1971-2000) growth rates for both species, with conditions being more favorable for jack pine than black spruce trees. Expected future changes in the growth rate of boreal trees need to be considered in forest management decisions. We recommend that knowledge of climate-growth relationships, as represented by models, be combined with learning from adaptive management to reduce the risks and uncertainties associated with forest management decisions. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  4. Admission temperatures following radiant warmer or incubator transport for preterm infants <28 weeks: a randomised study.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Michael P; Bold, Geoff T

    2007-07-01

    Sixty two infants <28 weeks were occlusively wrapped and randomised to radiant warmer or incubator transport to the neonatal unit. Median axillary temperature on arrival was 36.8 degrees C in both groups. Target temperatures (36.5-37.5 degrees C) were achieved in 60% of the incubator group compared to 75% in the warmer group (not statistically significant). While powered to detect a 35% difference between warming devices, a more modest difference is not excluded.

  5. Climate indices strongly influence old-growth forest carbon exchange

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wharton, Sonia; Falk, Matthias

    We present a decade and a half (1998–2013) of carbon dioxide fluxes from an old-growth stand in the American Pacific Northwest to identify ecosystem-level responses to Pacific teleconnection patterns, including the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study provides the longest, continuous record of old-growth eddy flux data to date from one of the longest running Fluxnet stations in the world. From 1998 to 2013, average annual net ecosystem exchange (F NEE) at Wind River AmeriFlux was –32 ± 84 g C m –2 yr –1 indicating that the late seral forest is on average a small net sink of atmosphericmore » carbon. However, interannual variability is high (>300 g C m –2 yr –1) and shows that the stand switches from net carbon sink to source in response to climate drivers associated with ENSO. The old-growth forest is a much stronger sink during La Niña years (mean F NEE = –90 g C m –2 yr –1) than during El Niño when the stand turns carbon neutral or into a small net carbon source (mean F NEE = +17 g C m –2 yr –1). Forest inventory data dating back to the 1930s show a similar correlation with the lower frequency Pacific North American (PNA) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) whereby higher aboveground net primary productivity (F ANPP) is associated with cool phases of both the PNA and PDO. Furthermore, these measurements add evidence that carbon exchange in old-growth stands may be more sensitive to climate variability across shorter time scales than once thought.« less

  6. Climate indices strongly influence old-growth forest carbon exchange

    DOE PAGES

    Wharton, Sonia; Falk, Matthias

    2016-04-13

    We present a decade and a half (1998–2013) of carbon dioxide fluxes from an old-growth stand in the American Pacific Northwest to identify ecosystem-level responses to Pacific teleconnection patterns, including the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study provides the longest, continuous record of old-growth eddy flux data to date from one of the longest running Fluxnet stations in the world. From 1998 to 2013, average annual net ecosystem exchange (F NEE) at Wind River AmeriFlux was –32 ± 84 g C m –2 yr –1 indicating that the late seral forest is on average a small net sink of atmosphericmore » carbon. However, interannual variability is high (>300 g C m –2 yr –1) and shows that the stand switches from net carbon sink to source in response to climate drivers associated with ENSO. The old-growth forest is a much stronger sink during La Niña years (mean F NEE = –90 g C m –2 yr –1) than during El Niño when the stand turns carbon neutral or into a small net carbon source (mean F NEE = +17 g C m –2 yr –1). Forest inventory data dating back to the 1930s show a similar correlation with the lower frequency Pacific North American (PNA) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) whereby higher aboveground net primary productivity (F ANPP) is associated with cool phases of both the PNA and PDO. Furthermore, these measurements add evidence that carbon exchange in old-growth stands may be more sensitive to climate variability across shorter time scales than once thought.« less

  7. Radiant energy and insensible water loss in the premature newborn infant nursed under a radiant warmer.

    PubMed

    Baumgart, S

    1982-10-01

    Radiant warmers are a powerful and efficient source of heat serving to warm the cold-stressed infant acutely and to provide uninterrupted maintenance of body temperature despite a multiplicity of nursing, medical, and surgical procedures required to care for the critically ill premature newborn in today's intensive care nursery. A recognized side-effect of radiant warmer beds is the now well-documented increase in insensible water loss through evaporation from an infant's skin. Particularly the very-low-birth-weight, severely premature, and critically ill neonate is subject to this increase in evaporative water loss. The clinician caring for the infant is faced with the difficult problem of fluid and electrolyte balance, which requires vigilant monitoring of all parameters of fluid homeostasis. Compounding these difficulties, other portions of the electromagnetic spectrum (for example, phototherapy) may affect an infant's fluid metabolism by mechanisms that are not well understood. The role of plastic heat shielding in reducing large insensible losses in infants nursed on radiant warmer beds is currently under intense investigation. Apparently, convective air currents and not radiant heat energy may be the cause of the observed increase in insensible water loss in the intensive care nursery. A thin plastic blanket may be effective in reducing evaporative water loss by diminishing an infant's exposure to convective air currents while being nursed on an open radiant warmer bed. A rigid plastic body hood, although effective as a radiant heat shield, is not as effective in preventing exposure to convection in the intensive care nursery and, therefore, is not as effective as the thin plastic blanket in reducing insensible water loss. Care should be exercised in determining the effect of heat shielding on all parameters of heat exchange (convection, evaporation, and radiation) before application is made to the critically ill premature infant nursed on an open radiant

  8. Climate Change Impacts on Forest Succession and Future Productivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohan, J. E.; Melillo, J. M.; Clark, J. S.; Schlesinger, W. H.

    2012-12-01

    Change in ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics with forest succession is a long-studied topic in ecology, and secondary forests currently comprise a significant proportion of the global land base. Although mature forests are generally more important for conserving species and habitats, early successional trees and stands typically have higher rates of productivity, including net ecosystem productivity (NEP), which represents carbon available for sequestration. Secondary forests undergoing successional development are thus major players in the current global carbon cycle, yet how forests will function in the future under warmer conditions with higher atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations is unknown. Future forest C dynamics will depend, in part, on future species composition. Data from "Forests of the Future" research in a number of global change experiments provide insights into how forests may look in terms of dominant species composition, and thus function, in a future world. Studies at Free-Air Carbon Dioxide (FACE) experiments at Duke Forest and other facilities, plus climate warming experiments such as those at the Harvard Forest, suggest a common underlying principle of vegetation responses to environmental manipulation: Namely, that shade-tolerant woody species associating with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi show greater growth stimulation than ectomycorrhizal-associating (ECM) trees which are more common in temperate and boreal forests (Fig. 1 of relative growth rates standardized by pre-treatment rates). This may be due in part to the role of AM fungi in obtaining soil phosphorus and inorganic forms of nitrogen for plant associates. In combination, these results suggest a shift in future forest composition towards less-productive tree species that generally acquire atmospheric CO2 at lower annual rates, as well as a competitive advantage extended to woody vines such as poison ivy. Due to higher atmospheric CO2 and warmer temperatures, forests of the

  9. Changes to Sub-daily Rainfall Patterns in a Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westra, S.; Evans, J. P.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

    2012-12-01

    An algorithm is developed for disaggregating daily rainfall into sub-daily rainfall 'fragments' (continuous high temporal-resolution rainfall sequences whose total depth sums to the daily rainfall amount) under a future, warmer climate. The basis of the algorithm is to re-sample sub-daily fragments from the historical record conditional on the total daily rainfall amount and a range of temperature-based atmospheric predictors. The logic is that as the atmosphere warms, future rainfall patterns will be more reflective of historical rainfall patterns which occurred on warmer days at the same location, or at locations which have an atmospheric temperature profile more representative of expected future atmospheric conditions. It was found that the daily to sub-daily scaling relationship varied significantly by season and by location, with rainfall patterns on warmer seasons or at warmer locations typically exhibiting higher rainfall intensity occurring over shorter periods within a day, compared with cooler seasons and locations. Importantly, by regressing against temperature-based atmospheric covariates, this effect was substantially reduced, suggesting that the approach also may be valid when extrapolating to a future climate. An adjusted method of fragments algorithm was then applied to nine stations around Australia, with the results showing that when holding total daily rainfall constant, the maximum intensity of short duration rainfall increased by a median of about 5% per degree for the maximum 6 minute burst, and 3.5% for the maximum one hour burst, whereas the fraction of the day with no rainfall increased by a median of 1.5%. This highlights that a large proportion of the change to the distribution of rainfall is likely to occur at sub-daily timescales, with significant implications for many hydrological systems.

  10. Impact of climate warming-induced increase in drought stress on successional dynamic of a coniferous forest within a dry inner Alpine environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuster, R.; Zeisler, B.; Oberhuber, W.

    2012-04-01

    Climate sensitivity of tree growth will effect the development of forest ecosystems under a warmer and drier climate by changing species composition and inducing shifts in forest distribution. We applied dendroclimatological techniques to determine impact of climate warming on radial stem growth of three native and widespread coniferous tree species of the central Austrian Alps (Norway spruce, Picea abies; European larch, Larix decidua; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris), which grow intermixed at dry-mesic sites within a dry inner Alpine environment (750 m a.s.l., Tyrol, Austria). Time series of annual increments were developed from > 250 saplings and mature trees. Radial growth response to recent climate warming was explored by means of moving response functions (MRF) and evaluation of trends in basal area increment (BAI) for the period 1911 - 2009. Climate-growth relationships revealed significant differences among species in response to water availability. While precipitation in May - June favoured radial growth of spruce and larch, Scots pine growth mainly depended on April - May precipitation. Spruce growth was most sensitive to May - June temperature (inverse relationship). Although MRF coefficients indicated increasing drought sensitivity of all species, which is most likely related to intensified belowground competition for scarce water with increasing stand density and higher evapotranspiration rates due to climate warming, recent BAI trends strikingly differed among species. While BAI of larch was distinctly declining, spruce showed steadily increasing BAI and quite constant BAI was maintained in drought adapted Scots pine, although at lowest level of all species. Furthermore, more favourable growing conditions of spruce in recent decades are indicated by scattered natural regeneration and higher growth rates of younger trees during first decades of their lifespan. Because human interference and wildlife stock is negligible within the study area, results

  11. Water and growth: An econometric analysis of climate and policy impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Hassaan Furqan; Morzuch, Bernard J.; Brown, Casey M.

    2017-06-01

    Water-related hazards such as floods, droughts, and disease cause damage to an economy through the destruction of physical capital including property and infrastructure, the loss of human capital, and the interruption of economic activities, like trade and education. The question for policy makers is whether the impacts of water-related risk accrue to manifest as a drag on economic growth at a scale suggesting policy intervention. In this study, the average drag on economic growth from water-related hazards faced by society at a global level is estimated. We use panel regressions with various specifications to investigate the relationship between economic growth and hydroclimatic variables at the country-river basin level. In doing so, we make use of surface water runoff variables never used before. The analysis of the climate variables shows that water availability and water hazards have significant effects on economic growth, providing further evidence beyond earlier studies finding that precipitation extremes were at least as important or likely more important than temperature effects. We then incorporate a broad set of variables representing the areas of infrastructure, institutions, and information to identify the characteristics of a region that determine its vulnerability to water-related risks. The results identify water scarcity, governance, and agricultural intensity as the most relevant measures affecting vulnerabilities to climate variability effects.

  12. Climate-Induced Larch Growth Response Within the Central Siberian Permafrost Zone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kharuk, Viacheslav I.; Ranson, Kenneth J.; Im, Sergei T.; Petrov, Il'ya A.

    2015-01-01

    Aim: estimation of larch (Larix gmelinii) growth response to current climate changes. Location: permafrost area within the northern part of Central Siberia (approximately 65.8 deg N, 98.5 deg E). Method: analysis of dendrochronological data, climate variables, drought index SPEI, GPP (gross primary production) and EVI vegetation index (both Aqua/MODIS satellite derived), and soil water content anomalies (GRACE satellite measurements of equivalent water thickness anomalies, EWTA). Results: larch tree ring width (TRW) correlated with previous year August precipitation (r = 0.63), snow accumulation (r = 0.61), soil water anomalies (r = 0.79), early summer temperatures and water vapor pressure (r = 0.73 and r = 0.69, respectively), May and June drought index (r = 0.68-0.82). There are significant positive trends of TRW since late 1980s and GPP since the year 2000. Mean TRW increased by about 50%, which is similar to post-Little Ice Age warming. TRW correlated with GPP and EVI of larch stands (r = 0.68-0.69). Main conclusions: within the permafrost zone of central Siberia larch TRW growth is limited by early summer temperatures, available water from snowmelt, water accumulated within soil in the previous year, and permafrost thaw water. Water stress is one of the limiting factors of larch growth. Larch TRW growth and GPP increased during recent decades.

  13. Assessing climate-change risks to cultural and natural resources in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hatten, James R.; Waste, Stephen M.; Maule, Alec G.

    2014-01-01

    We provide an overview of an interdisciplinary special issue that examines the influence of climate change on people and fish in the Yakima River Basin, USA. Jenni et al. (2013) addresses stakeholder-relevant climate change issues, such as water availability and uncertainty, with decision analysis tools. Montag et al. (2014) explores Yakama Tribal cultural values and well-being and their incorporation into the decision-making process. Graves and Maule (2012) simulates effects of climate change on stream temperatures under baseline conditions (1981–2005) and two future climate scenarios (increased air temperature of 1 °C and 2 °C). Hardiman and Mesa (2013) looks at the effects of increased stream temperatures on juvenile steelhead growth with a bioenergetics model. Finally, Hatten et al. (2013) examines how changes in stream flow will affect salmonids with a rule-based fish habitat model. Our simulations indicate that future summer will be a very challenging season for salmonids when low flows and high water temperatures can restrict movement, inhibit or alter growth, and decrease habitat. While some of our simulations indicate salmonids may benefit from warmer water temperatures and increased winter flows, the majority of simulations produced less habitat. The floodplain and tributary habitats we sampled are representative of the larger landscape, so it is likely that climate change will reduce salmonid habitat potential throughout particular areas of the basin. Management strategies are needed to minimize potential salmonid habitat bottlenecks that may result from climate change, such as keeping streams cool through riparian protection, stream restoration, and the reduction of water diversions. An investment in decision analysis and support technologies can help managers understand tradeoffs under different climate scenarios and possibly improve water and fish conservation over the next century.

  14. Limited evidence for CO2 -related growth enhancement in northern Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine populations across climate gradients.

    PubMed

    Reed, Charlotte C; Ballantyne, Ashley P; Cooper, Leila Annie; Sala, Anna

    2018-04-15

    Forests sequester large amounts of carbon annually and are integral in buffering against effects of global change. Increasing atmospheric CO 2 may enhance photosynthesis and/or decrease stomatal conductance (g s ) thereby enhancing intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), having potential indirect and direct benefits to tree growth. While increasing iWUE has been observed in most trees globally, enhanced growth is not ubiquitous, possibly due to concurrent climatic constraints on growth. To investigate our incomplete understanding of interactions between climate and CO 2 and their impacts on tree physiology and growth, we used an environmental gradient approach. We combined dendrochronology with carbon isotope analysis (δ 13 C) to assess the covariation of basal area increment (BAI) and iWUE over time in lodgepole pine. Trees were sampled at 18 sites spanning two climatically distinct elevation transects on the lee and windward sides of the Continental Divide, encompassing the majority of lodgepole pine's northern Rocky Mountain elevational range. We analyzed BAI and iWUE from 1950 to 2015, and explored correlations with monthly climate variables. As expected, iWUE increased at all sites. However, concurrent growth trends depended on site climatic water deficit (CWD). Significant growth increases occurred only at the driest sites, where increases in iWUE were strongest, while growth decreases were greatest at sites where CWD has been historically lowest. Late summer drought of the previous year negatively affected growth across sites. These results suggest that increasing iWUE, if strong enough, may indirectly benefit growth at drier sites by effectively extending the growing season via reductions in g s . Strong growth decreases at high elevation windward sites may reflect increasing water stress as a result of decreasing snowpack, which was not offset by greater iWUE. Our results imply that increasing iWUE driven by decreasing g s may benefit tree growth in

  15. Variation in piñon pine growth responses to climate across gradients of environmental stress using an individual-based approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Redmond, M. D.; Kelsey, K.; Urza, A.; Barger, N. N.

    2015-12-01

    Forest and woodland ecosystems play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle and may be strongly affected by changing climate. Here we use an individual-based approach to model piñon pine (Pinus edulis) radial growth responses to climate across gradients of environmental stress. We sampled piñon pine trees at 24 sites across southwestern Colorado that varied in soil available water capacity, elevation, and latitude, obtaining a total of 552 pinon pine tree ring series. We used linear mixed effect models to assess piñon pine growth responses to climate and site-level environmental stress (mean annual climatic water deficit and soil available water capacity). Using a similar modeling approach, we also determined long-term growth trends across our gradients of environmental stress. Piñon pine growth was strongly positively associated with winter precipitation and strongly negatively associated with summer vapor pressure deficit. However, the strength of the relationship between winter precipitation and piñon pine growth was affected by site-level environmental stress. Trees at sites with greater climatic water deficit (i.e. hotter, drier sites) were more sensitive to winter precipitation. Interestingly, trees at sites with greater soil available water capacity were also more sensitive to winter precipitation, as these trees had much higher growth rates during years of high precipitation. We found weak evidence of long-term declines in piñon growth rates over the past century within our study area. Growth trends overtime did vary across our soil available water capacity gradient: trees growing at sites with higher soil available water capacity responded more positively to the cool, wet climate conditions of the 1910s and 1980s, whereas tree growth rates at sites with lower soil available water capacity declined more linearly over the last century. Our findings suggest that the sensitivity of woodland ecosystems to changing climate will vary across the landscape

  16. Growth of trees on permafrost: habitat driven response to climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bryukhanova, Marina; Fonti, Patrick; Kirdyanov, Alexander; Saurer, Matthias; Siegwolf, Rolf; Pochebit, Natalia; Sidorova, Olga; Prokushkin, Anatoly

    2013-04-01

    Global change is expected to alter boreal forest conditions with far reaching consequences for tree growth in these ecosystems. Within this study we aimed at determining which limiting factors control tree-growth on permafrost under different site conditions. A tree-ring multi-proxy characterisation of mature Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr. from a continuous permafrost zone of Siberia (Russia, 64°18' N, 100°11' E) was used to identify the physiological principle of responses related to the plant-soil system. Tree-ring width (1975-2009), carbon and oxygen stable isotopes, and xylem structural characteristics (2000-2009) indicated that an increased depth of the soil active layer favors a better exploitation of the available resources. Our study used a mechanistic description of expected soil thermo-hydrological changes associated with a detailed comparison of tree growth responses, and supplied possible scenarios of northern larch stands development under projected climate change and permafrost degradation. By using a "space for time" approach along a 100 m long transect characterized by distinct permafrost regimes combined with measurements of physiological and structural tree responses, it become possible to propose a mechanism responsible for the differing climatic-growth responses. The results obtained indicate global warming to promote large increases in tree productivity of permafrost larch stands with a shift from a cold to a water limited environment. This work was supported by the SNSF (VG IZ76Z0_141967/1, SCOPES IZ73Z0_128035) and grant form the President of the Russian Federation for young scientists 5498.2012.4.

  17. Hybridization in a warmer world

    PubMed Central

    Chunco, Amanda J

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is profoundly affecting the evolutionary trajectory of individual species and ecological communities, in part through the creation of novel species assemblages. How climate change will influence competitive interactions has been an active area of research. Far less attention, however, has been given to altered reproductive interactions. Yet, reproductive interactions between formerly isolated species are inevitable as populations shift geographically and temporally as a result of climate change, potentially resulting in introgression, speciation, or even extinction. The susceptibility of hybridization rates to anthropogenic disturbance was first recognized in the 1930s. To date, work on anthropogenically mediated hybridization has focused primarily on either physical habitat disturbance or species invasion. Here, I review recent literature on hybridization to identify how ecological responses to climate change will increase the likelihood of hybridization via the dissolution of species barriers maintained by habitat, time, or behavior. Using this literature, I identify several cases where novel hybrid zones have recently formed, likely as a result of changing climate. Future research should focus on identifying areas and taxonomic groups where reproductive species interactions are most likely to be influenced by climate change. Furthermore, a better understanding of the evolutionary consequences of climate-mediated secondary contact is urgently needed. Paradoxically, hybridization is both a major conservation concern and an important source of novel genetic and phenotypic variation. Hybridization may therefore both contribute to increasing rates of extinction and stimulate the creation of novel phenotypes that will speed adaptation to novel climates. Predicting which result will occur following secondary contact will be an important contribution to conservation for many species. PMID:24963394

  18. Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations

    PubMed Central

    Aitken, Sally N; Yeaman, Sam; Holliday, Jason A; Wang, Tongli; Curtis-McLane, Sierra

    2008-01-01

    Abstract Species distribution models predict a wholesale redistribution of trees in the next century, yet migratory responses necessary to spatially track climates far exceed maximum post-glacial rates. The extent to which populations will adapt will depend upon phenotypic variation, strength of selection, fecundity, interspecific competition, and biotic interactions. Populations of temperate and boreal trees show moderate to strong clines in phenology and growth along temperature gradients, indicating substantial local adaptation. Traits involved in local adaptation appear to be the product of small effects of many genes, and the resulting genotypic redundancy combined with high fecundity may facilitate rapid local adaptation despite high gene flow. Gene flow with preadapted alleles from warmer climates may promote adaptation and migration at the leading edge, while populations at the rear will likely face extirpation. Widespread species with large populations and high fecundity are likely to persist and adapt, but will likely suffer adaptational lag for a few generations. As all tree species will be suffering lags, interspecific competition may weaken, facilitating persistence under suboptimal conditions. Species with small populations, fragmented ranges, low fecundity, or suffering declines due to introduced insects or diseases should be candidates for facilitated migration. PMID:25567494

  19. Impact of Urban Growth on Surface Climate: A Case Study in Oran, Algeria

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bounoua, Lahouari; Safia, Abdelmounaine; Masek, Jeffrey; Peters-Lidars, Christaq; Imhoff, Marc L.

    2008-01-01

    We develop a land use map discriminating urban surfaces from other cover types over a semiarid region in North Africa and use it in a land surface model to assess the impact of urbanized land on surface energy, water and carbon balances. Unlike in temperate climates where urbanization creates a marked heat island effect, this effect is not strongly marked in semiarid regions. During summer, the urban class results in an additional warming of 1.45 C during daytime and 0.81 C at night compared to that simulated for needleleaf trees under similar climate conditions. Seasonal temperatures show urban areas warmer than their surrounding during summer and slightly cooler in winter. The hydrological cycle is practically "shut down" during summer and characterized by relatively large amount of runoff in winter. We estimate the annual amount of carbon uptake to 1.94 million metric tons with only 11.9% assimilated during the rainy season. However, if urbanization expands to reach 50% of the total area excluding forests, the annual total carbon uptake will decline by 35% and the July mean temperature would increase only 0.10 C, compared to current situation. In contrast, if urbanization expands to 50% of the total land excluding forests and croplands but all short vegetation is replaced by native broadleaf deciduous trees, the annual carbon uptake would increase 39% and the July mean temperature would decrease by 0.9 C, compared to current configuration. These results provide guidelines for urban planners and land use managers and indicate possibilities for mitigating the urban heat.

  20. Accelerating forest growth enhancement due to climate and atmospheric changes in British Colombia, Canada over 1956-2001.

    PubMed

    Wu, Chaoyang; Hember, Robbie A; Chen, Jing M; Kurz, Werner A; Price, David T; Boisvenue, Céline; Gonsamo, Alemu; Ju, Weimin

    2014-03-25

    Changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen (N) over the last several decades have induced significant effects on forest carbon (C) cycling. However, contributions of individual factors are largely unknown because of the lack of long observational data and the undifferentiating between intrinsic factors and external forces in current ecosystem models. Using over four decades (1956-2001) of forest inventory data at 3432 permanent samples in maritime and boreal regions of British Columbia (B.C.), Canada, growth enhancements were reconstructed and partitioned into contributions of climate, CO2 and N after removal of age effects. We found that climate change contributed a particularly large amount (over 70%) of the accumulated growth enhancement, while the remaining was attributed to CO2 and N, respectively. We suggest that climate warming is contributing a widespread growth enhancement in B.C.'s forests, but ecosystem models should consider CO2 and N fertilization effects to fully explain inventory-based observations.

  1. Evidence of a Cooler Continental Climate in East China during the Warm Early Cenozoic.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Qian-Qian; Smith, Thierry; Yang, Jian; Li, Cheng-Sen

    2016-01-01

    The early Cenozoic was characterized by a very warm climate especially during the Early Eocene. To understand climatic changes in eastern Asia, we reconstructed the Early Eocene vegetation and climate based on palynological data of a borehole from Wutu coal mine, East China and evaluated the climatic differences between eastern Asia and Central Europe. The Wutu palynological assemblages indicated a warm temperate vegetation succession comprising mixed needle- and broad-leaved forests. Three periods of vegetation succession over time were recognized. The changes of palynomorph relative abundance indicated that period 1 was warm and humid, period 2 was relatively warmer and wetter, and period 3 was cooler and drier again. The climatic parameters estimated by the coexistence approach (CA) suggested that the Early Eocene climate in Wutu was warmer and wetter. Mean annual temperature (MAT) was approximately 16°C and mean annual precipitation (MAP) was 800-1400 mm. Comparison of the Early Eocene climatic parameters of Wutu with those of 39 other fossil floras of different age in East China, reveals that 1) the climate became gradually cooler during the last 65 million years, with MAT dropping by 9.3°C. This cooling trend coincided with the ocean temperature changes but with weaker amplitude; 2) the Early Eocene climate was cooler in East China than in Central Europe; 3) the cooling trend in East China (MAT dropped by 6.9°C) was gentler than in Central Europe (MAT dropped by 13°C) during the last 45 million years.

  2. Evidence of a Cooler Continental Climate in East China during the Warm Early Cenozoic

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Qian-Qian; Smith, Thierry; Yang, Jian; Li, Cheng-Sen

    2016-01-01

    The early Cenozoic was characterized by a very warm climate especially during the Early Eocene. To understand climatic changes in eastern Asia, we reconstructed the Early Eocene vegetation and climate based on palynological data of a borehole from Wutu coal mine, East China and evaluated the climatic differences between eastern Asia and Central Europe. The Wutu palynological assemblages indicated a warm temperate vegetation succession comprising mixed needle- and broad-leaved forests. Three periods of vegetation succession over time were recognized. The changes of palynomorph relative abundance indicated that period 1 was warm and humid, period 2 was relatively warmer and wetter, and period 3 was cooler and drier again. The climatic parameters estimated by the coexistence approach (CA) suggested that the Early Eocene climate in Wutu was warmer and wetter. Mean annual temperature (MAT) was approximately 16°C and mean annual precipitation (MAP) was 800–1400 mm. Comparison of the Early Eocene climatic parameters of Wutu with those of 39 other fossil floras of different age in East China, reveals that 1) the climate became gradually cooler during the last 65 million years, with MAT dropping by 9.3°C. This cooling trend coincided with the ocean temperature changes but with weaker amplitude; 2) the Early Eocene climate was cooler in East China than in Central Europe; 3) the cooling trend in East China (MAT dropped by 6.9°C) was gentler than in Central Europe (MAT dropped by 13°C) during the last 45 million years. PMID:27196048

  3. Shifts in climate suitability for wine production as a result of climate change in a temperate climate wine region of Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irimia, Liviu Mihai; Patriche, Cristian Valeriu; Quenol, Hervé; Sfîcă, Lucian; Foss, Chris

    2018-02-01

    Climate change is causing important shifts in the suitability of regions for wine production. Fine scale mapping of these shifts helps us to understand the evolution of vineyard climates, and to find solutions through viticultural adaptation. The aim of this study is to identify and map the structural and spatial shifts that occurred in the climatic suitability for wine production of the Cotnari wine growing region (Romania) between 1961 and 2013. Discontinuities in trends of temperature were identified, and the averages and trends of 13 climatic parameters for the 1961 to 1980 and 1981 to 2013 time periods were analysed. Using the averages of these climatic parameters, climate suitability for wine production was calculated at a resolution of 30 m and mapped for each time period, and the changes analysed. The results indicate shifts in the area's historic climatic profile, due to an increase of heliothermal resources and precipitation constancy. The area's climate suitability for wine production was modified by the loss of climate suitability for white table wines, sparkling wines and wine for distillates; shifts in suitability to higher altitudes by about 67 m, and a 48.6% decrease in the area suitable for quality white wines; and the occurrence of suitable climates for red wines at lower altitudes. The study showed that climate suitability for wine production has a multi-level spatial structure, with classes requiring a cooler climate being located at a higher altitude than those requiring a warmer climate. Climate change has therefore resulted in the shift of climate suitability classes for wine production to higher altitudes.

  4. Topography and age mediate the growth responses of Smith fir to climate warming in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, B.; Wang, Y.; Zhu, H.; Liang, E.; Camarero, J. J.

    2016-10-01

    The Tibetan Plateau holds some of the world's highest undisturbed natural treelines and timberlines. Such extreme environments constitute potentially valuable monitoring sites of the effects of climate warming on high-elevation forests. Here, we analyze a network of 21 Smith fir forests situated in the Sygera Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau, using tree-ring width (TRW) and basal area increment (BAI) chronologies. Sampled sites encompassed a wide elevation gradient, from 3600 to 4400 m, including some treeline sites and diverse aspects and tree ages. In comparison with TRW series, BAI series better capture the long-term warming signal. Previous November and current April and summer temperatures are the dominant climatic factors controlling Smith fir radial growth. The mean inter-series correlations of TRW increased upwards, but the forest limit presented the highest potential to reconstruct past temperature variability. Moreover, the growth responses of young trees were less stable than those of trees older than 100 years. Climate warming is accelerating radial growth of Smith fir forest subjected to mesic conditions. Collectively, these findings confirm that the effects of site elevation and tree age should be considered when quantifying climate-growth relationships. The type of tree-ring data (BAI vs. TRW) is also relevant since BAI indices seem to be a better climatic proxy of low-frequency temperature signals than TRW indices. Therefore, site (e.g., elevation) and tree (e.g., age) features should be considered to properly evaluate the effects of climate warming on growth of high-elevation forests.

  5. Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehner, F.; Coats, S.; Stocker, T. F.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Sanderson, B. M.; Raible, C.; Smerdon, J. E.

    2017-12-01

    The large socioeconomic costs of droughts make them a crucial target for impact assessments of climate change scenarios. Using multiple drought metrics and a set of simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) targeting 1.5°C and 2°C above preindustrial global mean temperatures, we investigate changes in aridity and the risk of consecutive drought years. The latter metric is motivated by recent droughts in California and the US Southwest in general, where consecutive years of moderate precipitation deficit can quickly lead to significant drought and elevated pressure on water resources. If warming is limited to 2°C, these simulations suggest little change in drought risk for the U.S. Southwest and Central Plains compared to present day, an interesting result that arises from a delicate balance between increases in evaporative demand and precipitation in CESM in that region. In the Mediterranean, central Europe, and a number of other regions across the globe, however, drought risk increases significantly for both 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets, and the additional 0.5°C of the 2°C climate leads to significantly higher drought risk. Our study suggests that limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, as aspired to by the Paris Climate Agreement, may have benefits for future drought risk but that such benefits may be regional and in some cases highly uncertain. We will therefore also discuss the robustness of results across different drought metrics as well as the model uncertainties associated with drought projections for low warming targets.

  6. Climate change and associated fire potential for the south-eastern United States in the 21st century

    Treesearch

    Anthony P. Bedel; Thomas L. Mote; Scott L. Goodrick

    2013-01-01

    Climate models indicate that the climate of the south-eastern US will experience increasing temperatures and associated evapotranspiration in the 21st century. The current study found that conditions in the south-eastern US will likely become drier overall, given a warmer environment during future winter and spring seasons. This study examined the potential effects of...

  7. Climate tolerances and trait choices shape continental patterns of urban tree biodiversity

    Treesearch

    G. Darrel Jenerette; Lorraine W. Clarke; Meghan L. Avolio; Diane E. Pataki; Thomas W. Gillespie; Stephanie Pincetl; Dave J. Nowak; Lucy R. Hutyra; Melissa McHale; Joseph P. McFadden; Michael Alonzo

    2016-01-01

    Aim. We propose and test a climate tolerance and trait choice hypothesis of urban macroecological variation in which strong filtering associated with low winter temperatures restricts urban biodiversity while weak filtering associated with warmer temperatures and irrigation allows dispersal of species from a global source pool, thereby...

  8. Climate Controls on Carbon Sequestration in Eastern North America

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peteet, D. M.; Renik, B.; Maenza-Gmeich, T.; Kurdyla, D.; Guilderson, T.

    2002-01-01

    Mid-latitude forest ecosystems have been proposed as a "missing sink" today. The role of soils (including wetlands) in this proposed sink is a very important unknown. In order to make estimates of future climate change effects on carbon storage, we can examine past wetland carbon sequestration. How did past climate change affect net wetland carbon storage? We present long-term data from existing wetland sites used for paleoclimate reconstruction to assess the net carbon storage in wetland over the last 15000 years. During times of colder and wetter climate, many mid-latitude sites show increases in carbon storage, while past warmer, drier climates produced decreases in storage. Comparison among bog, fen, swamp, and tidal marsh are demonstrated for the Hudson Valley region.

  9. The influence of soil-site factors on sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) growth response to climatic change in central Ontario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schutten, K.; Gedalof, Z.

    2010-12-01

    Over the past several decades, concerns about climatic change and its potential impacts on Canada’s various geographical regions and associated ecological processes have grown steadily, especially among land and resource managers. As these risks transition into tangible outcomes in the field, it will be important for resource managers to understand historical climatic variability and natural ecological trends in order to effectively respond to a changing climate. Sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) is considered a stable endpoint for mature forests in the northern hardwood community of central Ontario, and it tends to be the dominant species, in a beech-ironwood-yellow birch matrix. In North America, this species is used for both hardwood lumber and for maple sugar (syrup) products; where it dominates, large recreational opportunities also exist. There are many biotic and abiotic factors that play a large role in the growth and productivity of sugar maple stands, such as soil pH, moisture regime, and site slope and aspect. This research undertaking aims to add to the body of literature addressing the following question: how do site factors influence the sensitivity of sugar maple growth to climatic change? The overall objective of the research is to evaluate how biotic and abiotic factors influence the sensitivity of sugar maple annual radial growth to climatic variability. This research will focus on sugar maple growth and productivity in Algonquin Provincial Park, and the impact that climatic variability has had in the past on these stands based on site-specific characteristics. In order to complete this goal, 20 sites were identified in Algonquin Provincial Park based on variability of known soil and site properties. These sites were visited in order to collect biotic and abiotic site data, and to measure annual radial growth increment of trees. Using regional climate records and standard dendrochronological methods, the collected increment growth data will be

  10. Vulnerability of white spruce tree growth in interior Alaska in response to climate variability: dendrochronological, demographic, and experimental perspectives

    Treesearch

    A.D. McGuire; R.W. Ruess; A. Lloyd; J. Yarie; J.S. Clein; G.P. Juday

    2010-01-01

    This paper integrates dendrochronological, demographic, and experimental perspectives to improve understanding of the response of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) tree growth to climatic variability in interior Alaska. The dendrochronological analyses indicate that climate warming has led to widespread declines in white spruce growth...

  11. Predicted responses of arctic and alpine ecosystems to altered seasonality under climate change.

    PubMed

    Ernakovich, Jessica G; Hopping, Kelly A; Berdanier, Aaron B; Simpson, Rodney T; Kachergis, Emily J; Steltzer, Heidi; Wallenstein, Matthew D

    2014-10-01

    Global climate change is already having significant impacts on arctic and alpine ecosystems, and ongoing increases in temperature and altered precipitation patterns will affect the strong seasonal patterns that characterize these temperature-limited systems. The length of the potential growing season in these tundra environments is increasing due to warmer temperatures and earlier spring snow melt. Here, we compare current and projected climate and ecological data from 20 Northern Hemisphere sites to identify how seasonal changes in the physical environment due to climate change will alter the seasonality of arctic and alpine ecosystems. We find that although arctic and alpine ecosystems appear similar under historical climate conditions, climate change will lead to divergent responses, particularly in the spring and fall shoulder seasons. As seasonality changes in the Arctic, plants will advance the timing of spring phenological events, which could increase plant nutrient uptake, production, and ecosystem carbon (C) gain. In alpine regions, photoperiod will constrain spring plant phenology, limiting the extent to which the growing season can lengthen, especially if decreased water availability from earlier snow melt and warmer summer temperatures lead to earlier senescence. The result could be a shorter growing season with decreased production and increased nutrient loss. These contrasting alpine and arctic ecosystem responses will have cascading effects on ecosystems, affecting community structure, biotic interactions, and biogeochemistry. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Photosynthetic oxygen production in a warmer ocean: the Sargasso Sea as a case study.

    PubMed

    Richardson, Katherine; Bendtsen, Jørgen

    2017-09-13

    Photosynthetic O 2 production can be an important source of oxygen in sub-surface ocean waters especially in permanently stratified oligotrophic regions of the ocean where O 2 produced in deep chlorophyll maxima (DCM) is not likely to be outgassed. Today, permanently stratified regions extend across approximately 40% of the global ocean and their extent is expected to increase in a warmer ocean. Thus, predicting future ocean oxygen conditions requires a better understanding of the potential response of photosynthetic oxygen production to a warmer ocean. Based on our own and published observations of water column processes in oligotrophic regions, we develop a one-dimensional water column model describing photosynthetic oxygen production in the Sargasso Sea to quantify the importance of photosynthesis for the downward flux of O 2 and examine how it may be influenced in a warmer ocean. Photosynthesis is driven in the model by vertical mixing of nutrients (including eddy-induced mixing) and diazotrophy and is found to substantially increase the downward O 2 flux relative to physical-chemical processes alone. Warming (2°C) surface waters does not significantly change oxygen production at the DCM. Nor does a 15% increase in re-mineralization rate (assuming Q 10  = 2; 2°C warming) have significant effect on net sub-surface oxygen accumulation. However, changes in the relative production of particulate (POM) and dissolved organic material (DOM) generate relatively large changes in net sub-surface oxygen production. As POM/DOM production is a function of plankton community composition, this implies plankton biodiversity and food web structure may be important factors influencing O 2 production in a warmer ocean.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  13. Photosynthetic oxygen production in a warmer ocean: the Sargasso Sea as a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richardson, Katherine; Bendtsen, Jørgen

    2017-08-01

    Photosynthetic O2 production can be an important source of oxygen in sub-surface ocean waters especially in permanently stratified oligotrophic regions of the ocean where O2 produced in deep chlorophyll maxima (DCM) is not likely to be outgassed. Today, permanently stratified regions extend across approximately 40% of the global ocean and their extent is expected to increase in a warmer ocean. Thus, predicting future ocean oxygen conditions requires a better understanding of the potential response of photosynthetic oxygen production to a warmer ocean. Based on our own and published observations of water column processes in oligotrophic regions, we develop a one-dimensional water column model describing photosynthetic oxygen production in the Sargasso Sea to quantify the importance of photosynthesis for the downward flux of O2 and examine how it may be influenced in a warmer ocean. Photosynthesis is driven in the model by vertical mixing of nutrients (including eddy-induced mixing) and diazotrophy and is found to substantially increase the downward O2 flux relative to physical-chemical processes alone. Warming (2°C) surface waters does not significantly change oxygen production at the DCM. Nor does a 15% increase in re-mineralization rate (assuming Q10 = 2; 2°C warming) have significant effect on net sub-surface oxygen accumulation. However, changes in the relative production of particulate (POM) and dissolved organic material (DOM) generate relatively large changes in net sub-surface oxygen production. As POM/DOM production is a function of plankton community composition, this implies plankton biodiversity and food web structure may be important factors influencing O2 production in a warmer ocean. This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'.

  14. Climate during the Roman and early-medieval periods in North-western Europe: a review of climate reconstructions from terrestrial archives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reichelmann, Dana F. C.; Gouw-Bouman, Marjolein T. I. J.; Hoek, Wim Z.; van Lanen, Rowin J.; Stouthamer, Esther; Jansma, Esther

    2016-04-01

    High-resolution palaeoclimate reconstructions are essential to identify possible influences of climate variability on landscape evolution and landscape-related cultural changes (e.g., shifting settlement patterns and long-distance trade relations). North-western Europe is an ideal research area for comparison between climate variability and cultural transitions given its geomorphological diversity and the significant cultural changes that took place in this region during the last two millennia (e.g., the decline of the Roman Empire and the transition to medieval kingdoms). Compared to more global climate records, such as ice cores and marine sediments, terrestrial climate proxies have the advantage of representing a relatively short response time to regional climatic change. Furthermore for this region large quantity of climate reconstructions is available covering the last millennium, whereas for the first millennium AD only few high resolution climate reconstructions are available. We compiled climate reconstructions for sites in North-western Europe from the literature and its underlying data. All these reconstructions cover the time period of AD 1 to 1000. We only selected data with an annual to decadal resolution and a minimum resolution of 50 years. This resulted in 18 climate reconstructions from different archives such as chironomids (1), pollen (4), Sphagnum cellulose (1), stalagmites (6), testate amoebae (4), and tree-rings (2). The compilation of the different temperature reconstructions shows similar trends in most of the records. Colder conditions since AD 300 for a period of approximately 400 years and warmer conditions after AD 700 become apparent. A contradicting signal is found before AD 300 with warmer conditions indicated by most of the records but not all. This is likely the result of the use of different proxies, reflecting temperatures linked to different seasons. The compilation of the different precipitation reconstructions also show similar

  15. Climate-associated population declines reverse recovery and threaten future of an iconic high-elevation plant.

    PubMed

    Krushelnycky, Paul D; Loope, Lloyd L; Giambelluca, Thomas W; Starr, Forest; Starr, Kim; Drake, Donald R; Taylor, Andrew D; Robichaux, Robert H

    2013-03-01

    Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai'i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1-2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management, this iconic species has entered a period of substantial climate-associated decline. Mortality has been highest at the lower end of the distributional range, where most silverswords occur, and the strong association of annual population growth rates with patterns of precipitation suggests an increasing frequency of lethal water stress. Local climate data confirm trends toward warmer and drier conditions on the mountain, and signify a bleak outlook for silverswords if these trends continue. The silversword example foreshadows trouble for diversity in other biological hotspots, and illustrates how even well-protected and relatively abundant species may succumb to climate-induced stresses. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  16. Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a western river's water quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Records, R. M.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W. G.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K. C.

    2014-11-01

    An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and the protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss (e.g., via increased evapotranspiration and lower growing season flows leading to reduced riparian wetland inundation) or altered land use patterns. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrient loads in the snowmelt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, western US. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that, in the Sprague River, (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high-flow season under warmer, wetter climate projections or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

  17. Explaining the dependence of climatic response of tree radial growth on permafrost

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bryukhanova, Marina; Benkova, Anna; von Arx, Georg; Fonti, Patrick; Simanko, Valentina; Kirdyanov, Alexander; Shashkin, Alexander

    2015-04-01

    In northern regions of Siberia it is infrequent to have long-term observations of the variability of soil features, phenological data, duration of the growing season, which can be used to infer the influence of the environment on tree growth and productivity. The best way to understand tree-growth and tree responses to environmental changes is to make use of mechanistic models, allowing to combine already available experiment/field data with other parameters based on biological principles of tree growth. The goal of our study is to estimate which tree species (deciduous, conifer deciduous or conifer evergreen) is more plastic under possible climate changes in permafrost zone. The studied object is located in the northern part of central Siberia, Russia (64°N, 100°E). The study plot was selected within a post-fire succession and representatives for 100 years old even aged mixed forest of Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr. and Betula pubescens Ehrh. with few exemplars of Spruce (Picea obovata Ledeb.). To understand physiological response of larch, birch and spruce trees to climatic changes the ecological-physiological process-based model of tree photosynthesis (Benkova and Shashkin 2003) was applied. Multiparametric tree-ring chronologies were analyzed and correlated with climatic parameters over the last 77 years. This work is supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation (Grant from the President of RF for Young Scientists MK-1589.2014.4).

  18. The Ancient Martian Climate System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haberle, Robert M.

    2014-01-01

    Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. The atmosphere is thin and liquid water is not stable. But there is evidence that very early in its history it was warmer and wetter. Since Mariner 9 first detected fluvial features on its ancient terrains researchers have been trying to understand what climatic conditions could have permitted liquid water to flow on the surface. Though the evidence is compelling, the problem is not yet solved. The main issue is coping with the faint young sun. During the period when warmer conditions prevailed 3.5-3.8 Gy the sun's luminosity was approximately 25% less than it is today. How can we explain the presence of liquid water on the surface of Mars under such conditions? A similar problem exists for Earth, which would have frozen over under a faint sun even though the evidence suggests otherwise. Attempts to solve the "Faint Young Sun Paradox" rely on greenhouse warming from an atmosphere with a different mass and composition than we see today. This is true for both Mars and Earth. However, it is not a straightforward solution. Any greenhouse theory must (a) produce the warming and rainfall needed, (b) have a plausible source for the gases required, (c) be sustainable, and (d) explain how the atmosphere evolved to its present state. These are challenging requirements and judging from the literature they have yet to be met. In this talk I will review the large and growing body of work on the early Mars climate system. I will take a holistic approach that involves many disciplines since our goal is to present an integrated view that touches on each of the requirements listed in the preceding paragraph. I will begin with the observational evidence, which comes from the geology, mineralogy, and isotopic data. Each of the data sets presents a consistent picture of a warmer and wetter past with a thicker atmosphere. How much warmer and wetter and how much thicker is a matter of debate, but conditions then were certainly different than

  19. The Last Interglacial recorded in a Remouchamps cave speleothem (Belgium) -Information on seasonal changes and on the chronology of first climate deteriorations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verheyden, Sophie; Genty, Dominique; Blamart, Dominique; Cheng, Hai; Hodel, Florent; Vansteenberghe, Stef; McGavick, Matthew L.; Gillikin, David P.; Quinif, Yves

    2015-04-01

    A ~3m long stalagmite from the Remouchamps and ~15cm long stalagmite from the Han-sur-Lesse caves (Belgium) grew from ~124 to 100ka with growth rates going from 0.8mm/century to 30mm/century. Stable isotope (d18O and d13C) and growth-rate analyses suggest a rather stable climate from 122.0 to 115.8 ka. A clear climate deterioration is observed at ~115.8 ka and lasts until 111.2ka (±0.5ka, 2s), which corresponds well with Greenland Stadial 26. Several short-term but clear changes are observed in the stable isotopic composition at ~121.5, 119.5, 118.4, 117.6 (±0.5ka, 2s)) and are interpreted as climatic events of ~several hundred years long. They correspond with changes in stalagmite diameter and growth rate. Depending on the combination of changes in the d18O, d13C, growth rate and stalagmite diameter, the events are interpreted as corresponding to changes in rainfall amount or temperature. The RSM17 stalagmite exhibits visible seasonal layering during the entire 120-115ka period on which changes in Mg, Sr, Ba en P have been observed. This well pronounced lamination, likely annual as suggested by the U-Th data, demonstrates a strong seasonal character of the climate and/or vegetation activity during this period. We compare these MIS5 seasonality to the present day calcite layering observed in the cave. Both stalagmites, with a growth-rate increase after 125ka globally corresponding to the so-called Eemian optimum, seem to start later than other southern stalagmites from France, Italy or Spain. This observation raises the question of a possible late onset of interglacial conditions in north-west Europe and a progressive S-N advance of warmer conditions between 130 and 125ka through Western Europe.

  20. Spatial variability in growth-increment chronologies of long-lived freshwater mussels: Implications for climate impacts and reconstructions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Black, Bryan A.; Dunham, Jason B.; Blundon, Brett W.; Raggon, Mark F.; Zima, Daniela

    2010-01-01

    Estimates of historical variability in river ecosystems are often lacking, but long-lived freshwater mussels could provide unique opportunities to understand past conditions in these environments. We applied dendrochronology techniques to quantify historical variability in growth-increment widths in valves (shells) of western pearlshell freshwater mussels (Margaritifera falcata). A total of 3 growth-increment chronologies, spanning 19 to 26 y in length, were developed. Growth was highly synchronous among individuals within each site, and to a lesser extent, chronologies were synchronous among sites. All 3 chronologies negatively related to instrumental records of stream discharge, while correlations with measures of water temperature were consistently positive but weaker. A reconstruction of stream discharge was performed using linear regressions based on a mussel growth chronology and the regional Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Models based on mussel growth and PDSI yielded similar coefficients of prediction (R2Pred) of 0.73 and 0.77, respectively, for predicting out-ofsample observations. From an ecological perspective, we found that mussel chronologies provided a rich source of information for understanding climate impacts. Responses of mussels to changes in climate and stream ecosystems can be very site- and process-specific, underscoring the complex nature of biotic responses to climate change and the need to understand both regional and local processes in projecting climate impacts on freshwater species.

  1. Large Impacts of Climatic Warming on Growth of Boreal Forests since 1960

    PubMed Central

    Kauppi, Pekka E.; Posch, Maximilian; Pirinen, Pentti

    2014-01-01

    Boreal forests are sensitive to climatic warming, because low temperatures hold back ecosystem processes, such as the mobilization of nitrogen in soils. A greening of the boreal landscape has been observed using remote sensing, and the seasonal amplitude of CO2 in the northern hemisphere has increased, indicating warming effects on ecosystem productivity. However, field observations on responses of ecosystem productivity have been lacking on a large sub-biome scale. Here we report a significant increase in the annual growth of boreal forests in Finland in response to climatic warming, especially since 1990. This finding is obtained by linking meteorological records and forest inventory data on an area between 60° and 70° northern latitude. An additional increase in growth has occurred in response to changes in other drivers, such as forest management, nitrogen deposition and/or CO2 concentration. A similar warming impact can be expected in the entire boreal zone, where warming takes place. Given the large size of the boreal biome – more than ten million km2– important climate feedbacks are at stake, such as the future carbon balance, transpiration and albedo. PMID:25383552

  2. Large impacts of climatic warming on growth of boreal forests since 1960.

    PubMed

    Kauppi, Pekka E; Posch, Maximilian; Pirinen, Pentti

    2014-01-01

    Boreal forests are sensitive to climatic warming, because low temperatures hold back ecosystem processes, such as the mobilization of nitrogen in soils. A greening of the boreal landscape has been observed using remote sensing, and the seasonal amplitude of CO2 in the northern hemisphere has increased, indicating warming effects on ecosystem productivity. However, field observations on responses of ecosystem productivity have been lacking on a large sub-biome scale. Here we report a significant increase in the annual growth of boreal forests in Finland in response to climatic warming, especially since 1990. This finding is obtained by linking meteorological records and forest inventory data on an area between 60° and 70° northern latitude. An additional increase in growth has occurred in response to changes in other drivers, such as forest management, nitrogen deposition and/or CO2 concentration. A similar warming impact can be expected in the entire boreal zone, where warming takes place. Given the large size of the boreal biome - more than ten million km2- important climate feedbacks are at stake, such as the future carbon balance, transpiration and albedo.

  3. Potential ecological and economic consequences of climate-driven agricultural and silvicultural transformations in central Siberia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Zander, Evgeniya V.; Pyzhev, Anton I.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Soja, Amber J.

    2014-05-01

    Increased warming predicted from general circulation models (GCMs) by the end of the century is expected to dramatically impact Siberian forests. Both natural climate-change-caused disturbance (weather, wildfire, infestation) and anthropogenic disturbance (legal/illegal logging) has increased, and their impact on Siberian boreal forest has been mounting over the last three decades. The Siberian BioClimatic Model (SiBCliM) was used to simulate Siberian forests, and the resultant maps show a severely decreased forest that has shifted northwards and a changed composition. Predicted dryer climates would enhance the risks of high fire danger and thawing permafrost, both of which challenge contemporary ecosystems. Our current goal is to evaluate the ecological and economic consequences of climate warming, to optimise economic loss/gain effects in forestry versus agriculture, to question the relative economic value of supporting forestry, agriculture or a mixed agro-forestry at the southern forest border in central Siberia predicted to undergo the most noticeable landcover and landuse changes. We developed and used forest and agricultural bioclimatic models to predict forest shifts; novel tree species and their climatypes are introduced in a warmer climate and/or potential novel agriculture are introduced with a potential variety of crops by the end of the century. We applied two strategies to estimate climate change effects, motivated by forest disturbance. One is a genetic means of assisting trees and forests to be harmonized with a changing climate by developing management strategies for seed transfer to locations that are best ecologically suited to the genotypes in future climates. The second strategy is the establishment of agricultural lands in new forest-steppe and steppe habitats, because the forests would retreat northwards. Currently, food, forage, and biofuel crops primarily reside in the steppe and forest-steppe zones which are known to have favorable

  4. Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition alters growth responses of European beech (Fagus sylvativa L.) to climate change.

    PubMed

    Hess, Carsten; Niemeyer, Thomas; Fichtner, Andreas; Jansen, Kirstin; Kunz, Matthias; Maneke, Moritz; von Wehrden, Henrik; Quante, Markus; Walmsley, David; von Oheimb, Goddert; Härdtle, Werner

    2018-02-01

    Global change affects the functioning of forest ecosystems and the services they provide, but little is known about the interactive effects of co-occurring global change drivers on important functions such as tree growth and vitality. In the present study we quantified the interactive (i.e. synergistic or antagonistic) effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation) on tree growth (in terms of tree-ring width, TRW), taking forest ecosystems with European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) as an example. We hypothesised that (i) N deposition and climatic variables can evoke non-additive responses of the radial increment of beech trees, and (ii) N loads have the potential to strengthen the trees' sensitivity to climate change. In young stands, we found a synergistic positive effect of N deposition and annual mean temperature on TRW, possibly linked to the alleviation of an N shortage in young stands. In mature stands, however, high N deposition significantly increased the trees' sensitivity to increasing annual mean temperatures (antagonistic effect on TRW), possibly due to increased fine root dieback, decreasing mycorrhizal colonization or shifts in biomass allocation patterns (aboveground vs. belowground). Accordingly, N deposition and climatic variables caused both synergistic and antagonistic effects on the radial increment of beech trees, depending on tree age and stand characteristics. Hence, the nature of interactions could mediate the long-term effects of global change drivers (including N deposition) on forest carbon sequestration. In conclusion, our findings illustrate that interaction processes between climatic variables and N deposition are complex and have the potential to impair growth and performance of European beech. This in turn emphasises the importance of multiple-factor studies to foster an integrated understanding and models aiming at improved projections of tree growth responses to co-occurring drivers

  5. Late Holocene climate dynamics: A high-resolution sediment core from Maxwell Bay, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hass, H. C.; Kuhn, G.; Monien, P.; Brumsack, H.

    2009-12-01

    Presently, the Antarctic Peninsula belongs to the fastest warming regions on Earth. Meltwater discharge increases, glaciers retreat and as a consequence the coastal ecosystems change at an ever-increasing pace. The goal of our study is to reconstruct the timing and impact of historical climate phases such as the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) as analogs for the recent climate development, and to identify the marine sedimentary processes affected by the changing climate. We present results from a 928 cm long gravity core from Maxwell Bay, King George Island, Antarctica. The core spans the past c. 1700 years. Sedimentation at the core site is governed by sediments from the tributary fjords entering Maxwell Bay, namely Potter and Marian coves and Collins Harbor. There are two sediment classes: Class 1 is characterized by two grain-size subpopulations. The coarser one represents the bedload fraction, whereas the finer one is interpreted to represent meltwater-induced suspension load. Since meltwater is restricted to the summer season, it is suggested that Class 1 sediments characterize periods of intense summer-meltwater production and thus, warmer climate phases. Class 2 samples show the same coarse grain-size mode but they lack the fine subpopulation. We suggest that these sediments indicate less intense summer-meltwater production and thus colder climatic conditions. The mean grain size suggests that average bottom current speeds were slightly higher during colder climate phases than during the warmer phases. Bioproduction at the core location and in the sediment source areas as reflected by bio-productivity proxies (TOC, bio-opal) is not always positively related to climate since warm-phase meltwater discharge adversely affects bioproduction through light attenuation by turbid waters. Furthermore, during warmer phases the TOC signal becomes diluted due to increased deposition of terrigenous fine sediment. Comparison with Antarctic

  6. Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability

    PubMed Central

    Mora, Camilo; Caldwell, Iain R.; Caldwell, Jamie M.; Fisher, Micah R.; Genco, Brandon M.; Running, Steven W.

    2015-01-01

    Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under “business as usual” (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation). Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world’s terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world’s population) highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people. PMID:26061091

  7. Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability.

    PubMed

    Mora, Camilo; Caldwell, Iain R; Caldwell, Jamie M; Fisher, Micah R; Genco, Brandon M; Running, Steven W

    2015-06-01

    Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under "business as usual" (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation). Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world's terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world's population) highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people.

  8. Food Crops Response to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, E.; Huybers, P.

    2009-12-01

    Projections of future climate show a warming world and heterogeneous changes in precipitation. Generally, warming temperatures indicate a decrease in crop yields where they are currently grown. However, warmer climate will also open up new areas at high latitudes for crop production. Thus, there is a question whether the warmer climate with decreased yields but potentially increased growing area will produce a net increase or decrease of overall food crop production. We explore this question through a multiple linear regression model linking temperature and precipitation to crop yield. Prior studies have emphasised temporal regression which indicate uniformly decreased yields, but neglect the potentially increased area opened up for crop production. This study provides a compliment to the prior work by exploring this spatial variation. We explore this subject with a multiple linear regression model from temperature, precipitation and crop yield data over the United States. The United States was chosen as the training region for the model because there are good crop data available over the same time frame as climate data and presumably the yield from crops in the United States is optimized with respect to potential yield. We study corn, soybeans, sorghum, hard red winter wheat and soft red winter wheat using monthly averages of temperature and precipitation from NCEP reanalysis and yearly yield data from the National Agriculture Statistics Service for 1948-2008. The use of monthly averaged temperature and precipitation, which neglect extreme events that can have a significant impact on crops limits this study as does the exclusive use of United States agricultural data. The GFDL 2.1 model under a 720ppm CO2 scenario provides temperature and precipitation fields for 2040-2100 which are used to explore how the spatial regions available for crop production will change under these new conditions.

  9. Marine Climate Archives across the Medieval Climate Anomaly-Little Ice Age Transition from Viking and Medieval Age Shells, Orkney, Scotland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Surge, D. M.; Barrett, J. H.

    2013-12-01

    Proxy records reconstructing marine climatic conditions across the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ~900-1350 AD) and Little Ice Age (LIA; ~1350-1850) are strongly biased towards decadal to annual resolution and summer/growing seasons. Here we present new archives of seasonal variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) from shells of the European limpet, Patella vulgata, which accumulated in Viking and medieval shell and fish middens at Quoygrew on Westray, Orkney. SST was reconstructed at submonthly resolution using oxygen isotope ratios preserved in shells from the 12th and mid 15th centuries (MCA and LIA, respectively). MCA shells recorded warmer summers and colder winters by ~2 degrees C relative to the late 20th Century (1961-1990). Therefore, seasonality was higher during the MCA relative to the late 20th century. Without the benefit of seasonal resolution, SST averaged from shell time series would be weighted toward the fast-growing summer season, resulting in the conclusion that the early MCA was warmer than the late 20th century by ~1°C. This conclusion is broadly true for the summer season, but not true for the winter season. Higher seasonality and cooler winters during early medieval times may result from a weakened North Atlantic Oscillation index. In contrast, the LIA shells have a more a variable inter-annual pattern. Some years record cooler summers and winters relative to the MCA shells and late 20th century, whereas other years record warmer summers and cooler winters similar to the MCA shells. Our findings provide a new test for the accuracy of seasonal amplitudes resulting from paleoclimate model experiments.

  10. A Framework Predicting Water Availability in a Rapidly Growing, Semi-Arid Region under Future Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, B.; Benner, S. G.; Glenn, N. F.; Lindquist, E.; Dahal, K. R.; Bolte, J.; Vache, K. B.; Flores, A. N.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change can lead to dramatic variations in hydrologic regime, affecting both surface water and groundwater supply. This effect is most significant in populated semi-arid regions where water availability are highly sensitive to climate-induced outcomes. However, predicting water availability at regional scales, while resolving some of the key internal variability and structure in semi-arid regions is difficult due to the highly non-linearity relationship between rainfall and runoff. In this study, we describe the development of a modeling framework to evaluate future water availability that captures elements of the coupled response of the biophysical system to climate change and human systems. The framework is built under the Envision multi-agent simulation tool, characterizing the spatial patterns of water demand in the semi-arid Treasure Valley area of Southwest Idaho - a rapidly developing socio-ecological system where urban growth is displacing agricultural production. The semi-conceptual HBV model, a population growth and allocation model (Target), a vegetation state and transition model (SSTM), and a statistically based fire disturbance model (SpatialAllocator) are integrated to simulate hydrology, population and land use. Six alternative scenarios are composed by combining two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with three population growth and allocation scenarios (Status Quo, Managed Growth, and Unconstrained Growth). Five-year calibration and validation performances are assessed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Irrigation activities are simulated using local water rights. Results show that in all scenarios, annual mean stream flow decreases as the projected rainfall increases because the projected warmer climate also enhances water losses to evapotranspiration. Seasonal maximum stream flow tends to occur earlier than in current conditions due to the earlier peak of snow melting. The aridity index and water deficit generally increase in the

  11. Nitrogen deposition outweighs climatic variability in driving annual growth rate of canopy beech trees: Evidence from long-term growth reconstruction across a geographic gradient.

    PubMed

    Gentilesca, Tiziana; Rita, Angelo; Brunetti, Michele; Giammarchi, Francesco; Leonardi, Stefano; Magnani, Federico; van Noije, Twan; Tonon, Giustino; Borghetti, Marco

    2018-07-01

    In this study, we investigated the role of climatic variability and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in driving long-term tree growth in canopy beech trees along a geographic gradient in the montane belt of the Italian peninsula, from the Alps to the southern Apennines. We sampled dominant trees at different developmental stages (from young to mature tree cohorts, with tree ages spanning from 35 to 160 years) and used stem analysis to infer historic reconstruction of tree volume and dominant height. Annual growth volume (G V ) and height (G H ) variability were related to annual variability in model simulated atmospheric nitrogen deposition and site-specific climatic variables, (i.e. mean annual temperature, total annual precipitation, mean growing period temperature, total growing period precipitation, and standard precipitation evapotranspiration index) and atmospheric CO 2 concentration, including tree cambial age among growth predictors. Generalized additive models (GAM), linear mixed-effects models (LMM), and Bayesian regression models (BRM) were independently employed to assess explanatory variables. The main results from our study were as follows: (i) tree age was the main explanatory variable for long-term growth variability; (ii) GAM, LMM, and BRM results consistently indicated climatic variables and CO 2 effects on G V and G H were weak, therefore evidence of recent climatic variability influence on beech annual growth rates was limited in the montane belt of the Italian peninsula; (iii) instead, significant positive nitrogen deposition (N dep ) effects were repeatedly observed in G V and G H ; the positive effects of N dep on canopy height growth rates, which tended to level off at N dep values greater than approximately 1.0 g m -2  y -1 , were interpreted as positive impacts on forest stand above-ground net productivity at the selected study sites. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Climate, fire size, and biophysical setting control fire severity and spatial pattern in the northern Cascade Range, USA

    Treesearch

    C. Alina Cansler; Donald. McKenzie

    2014-01-01

    Warmer and drier climate over the past few decades has brought larger fire sizes and increased annual area burned in forested ecosystems of western North America, and continued increases in annual area burned are expected due to climate change. As warming continues, fires may also increase in severity and produce larger contiguous patches of severely burned areas. We...

  13. Air quality and climate--synergies and trade-offs.

    PubMed

    von Schneidemesser, Erika; Monks, Paul S

    2013-07-01

    Air quality and climate are often treated as separate science and policy areas. Air quality encompasses the here-and-now of pollutant emissions, atmospheric transformations and their direct effect on human and ecosystem health. Climate change deals with the drivers leading to a warmer world and the consequences of that. These two science and policy issues are inexorably linked via common pollutants, such as ozone (methane) and black carbon. This short review looks at the new scientific evidence around so-called "short-lived climate forcers" and the growing realisation that a way to meet short-term climate change targets may be through the control of "air quality" pollutants. None of the options discussed here can replace reduction of long-lived greenhouse gases, such as CO2, which is required for any long-term climate change mitigation strategy. An overview is given of the underlying science, remaining uncertainties, and some of the synergies and trade-offs for addressing air quality and climate in the science and policy context.

  14. The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lafferty, Kevin D.

    2009-01-01

    The projected global increase in the distribution and prevalence of infectious diseases with climate change suggests a pending societal crisis. The subject is increasingly attracting the attention of health professionals and climate-change scientists, particularly with respect to malaria and other vector-transmitted human diseases. The result has been the emergence of a crisis discipline, reminiscent of the early phases of conservation biology. Latitudinal, altitudinal, seasonal, and interannual associations between climate and disease along with historical and experimental evidence suggest that climate, along with many other factors, can affect infectious diseases in a nonlinear fashion. However, although the globe is significantly warmer than it was a century ago, there is little evidence that climate change has already favored infectious diseases. While initial projections suggested dramatic future increases in the geographic range of infectious diseases, recent models predict range shifts in disease distributions, with little net increase in area. Many factors can affect infectious disease, and some may overshadow the effects of climate.

  15. Getting into hot water: sick guppies frequent warmer thermal conditions.

    PubMed

    Mohammed, Ryan S; Reynolds, Michael; James, Joanna; Williams, Chris; Mohammed, Azad; Ramsubhag, Adesh; van Oosterhout, Cock; Cable, Jo

    2016-07-01

    Ectotherms depend on the environmental temperature for thermoregulation and exploit thermal regimes that optimise physiological functioning. They may also frequent warmer conditions to up-regulate their immune response against parasite infection and/or impede parasite development. This adaptive response, known as 'behavioural fever', has been documented in various taxa including insects, reptiles and fish, but only in response to endoparasite infections. Here, a choice chamber experiment was used to investigate the thermal preferences of a tropical freshwater fish, the Trinidadian guppy (Poecilia reticulata), when infected with a common helminth ectoparasite Gyrodactylus turnbulli, in female-only and mixed-sex shoals. The temperature tolerance of G. turnbulli was also investigated by monitoring parasite population trajectories on guppies maintained at a continuous 18, 24 or 32 °C. Regardless of shoal composition, infected fish frequented the 32 °C choice chamber more often than when uninfected, significantly increasing their mean temperature preference. Parasites maintained continuously at 32 °C decreased to extinction within 3 days, whereas mean parasite abundance increased on hosts incubated at 18 and 24 °C. We show for the first time that gyrodactylid-infected fish have a preference for warmer waters and speculate that sick fish exploit the upper thermal tolerances of their parasites to self medicate.

  16. Faster growth in warmer winters for large trees in a Mediterranean-climate ecosystem

    Treesearch

    Seth W. Bigelow; Michael J. Papaik; Caroline Caum; Malcolm P. North

    2014-01-01

    Large trees (>76 cm breast-height diameter) are vital components of Sierra Nevada/Cascades mixed-conifer ecosystems because of their fire resistance, ability to sequester large amounts of carbon, and role as preferred habitat for sensitive species such as the California spotted owl. To investigate the likely performance of large trees in a rapidly changing...

  17. Climate change and economic growth: a heterogeneous panel data approach.

    PubMed

    Sequeira, Tiago Neves; Santos, Marcelo Serra; Magalhães, Manuela

    2018-05-31

    Climate change is a global phenomenon. Its impact on economic growth must therefore be analyzed in accordance with its (time-varying) common effects. We present an econometric analysis that evaluates this effect taking into account its global nature. Contrary to previous evidence that ignores the global effects, we obtain that the rising temperature has not decreased growth in real GDP per capita in the second half of the twentieth century for the world countries. However, we obtain a negative effect of rising temperatures and a positive effect of rising precipitation in poor countries. This positive effect of rising precipitation is also confirmed for hot and temperate countries.

  18. Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.; Miguel, E.

    2014-12-01

    A rapidly growing body of research examines whether human conflict can be affected by climatic changes. Drawing from archaeology, criminology, economics, geography, history, political science, and psychology, we assemble and analyze the most rigorous quantitative studies and document, for the first time, a striking convergence of results. We find strong causal evidence linking climatic events to human conflict across a range of spatial and temporal scales and across all major regions of the world. The magnitude of climate's influence is substantial: for each one standard deviation (1sd) change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall, median estimates indicate that the frequency of interpersonal violence rises 4% and the frequency of intergroup conflict rises 14%. Because locations throughout the inhabited world are expected to warm 2sd to 4sd by 2050, amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large and critical impact of anthropogenic climate change.

  19. Different growth sensitivity to climate of the conifer Juniperus thurifera on both sides of the Mediterranean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeSoto, Lucía; Varino, Filipa; Andrade, José P.; Gouveia, Celia M.; Campelo, Filipe; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Nabais, Cristina

    2014-12-01

    Mediterranean plants cope with cold wet winters and dry hot summers, with a drought gradient from northwest to southeast. Limiting climatic conditions have become more pronounced in the last decades due to the warming trend and rainfall decrease. Juniperus thurifera L., a long-lived conifer tree endemic to the western Mediterranean region, has a disjunct distribution in Europe and Africa, making it a suitable species to study sensitivity to climate in both sides of the Mediterranean Basin. Tree-ring width chronologies were built for three J. thurifera stands at Spain (Europe) and three in Morocco (Africa) and correlated with monthly temperature and precipitation. The temporal stability of climate-growth relationships was assessed using moving correlations; the drought effect on growth was calculated using the monthly standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at different temporal scales. In the wettest stands, increasing spring temperature and summer precipitation enhanced growth, while in the driest stands, growth was enhanced by higher spring precipitation and lower summer temperature. The climate-growth correlations shifted during the twentieth century, especially since the 1970s. Particularly noticeable is the recent negative correlation with previous autumn and winter precipitation in the wettest stands of J. thurifera, probably related with an effect of cloud cover or flooding on carbon storage depletion for next year growth. The driest stands were affected by drought at long time scales, while the wettest stands respond to drought at short time scales. This reveals a different strategy to cope with drought conditions, with populations from drier sites able to cope with short periods of water deficit.

  20. Strip-bark and Whole-bark Siberian Pine Radial Growth Trends and Implications for Climate Reconstruction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leland, C.; Cook, E. R.; Andreu-Hayles, L.; Pederson, N.; Hessl, A. E.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Byambasuren, O.; Nachin, B.; Davi, N. K.; D'Arrigo, R.; Griffin, K. L.; Bishop, D. A.; Rao, M. P.

    2017-12-01

    Ancient trees can exhibit strip-bark morphology in which a portion of the cambium, the active layer of growth in the stem, dies in response to environmental stress. Partial cambial dieback has been linked to several different ecological and physiological factors, but the causes of dieback vary depending on site conditions. Further, the implications of such morphology on radial growth trends and its importance for tree-ring-based climate reconstructions remain unclear. We investigate the timing and potential environmental drivers of cambial dieback in Pinus sibirica trees from a xeric site in central Mongolia, and compare growth patterns of strip and whole-bark (full cambium) trees over the past 500 years. Cambial dieback occurred primarily on the southern side of trees, and was most common during the cold and dry 19th century. These unfavorable climatic conditions, combined with high exposure to solar radiation, suggested by the orientation of strip bark, might be responsible for cambial dieback. Increasing ring-width trends are gradual in most strip-bark trees, and do not immediately follow dieback dates detected for individual stems. However, a mean ring-width chronology of all strip-bark trees abruptly increases and significantly exceeds ring widths of coeval whole-bark trees in the early 20th century. After standardizing strip and whole-bark series to remove allometric trends, the differences in recent growth trends persist. Before using strip-bark trees for climate reconstruction, we suggest comparing strip and whole-bark ring-width trends in order to determine appropriate methods for removing potential morphology-related growth trends. We extend this study by analyzing stable carbon isotopes in tree rings to evaluate whether there are physiological differences between strip-bark and whole-bark trees, and to determine if δ13C can be used as an additional parameter for climate reconstruction.

  1. Different parts, different stories: climate sensitivity of growth is stronger in root collars vs. stems in tundra shrubs.

    PubMed

    Ropars, Pascale; Angers-Blondin, Sandra; Gagnon, Marianne; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Lévesque, Esther; Boudreau, Stéphane

    2017-08-01

    Shrub densification has been widely reported across the circumpolar arctic and subarctic biomes in recent years. Long-term analyses based on dendrochronological techniques applied to shrubs have linked this phenomenon to climate change. However, the multi-stemmed structure of shrubs makes them difficult to sample and therefore leads to non-uniform sampling protocols among shrub ecologists, who will favor either root collars or stems to conduct dendrochronological analyses. Through a comparative study of the use of root collars and stems of Betula glandulosa, a common North American shrub species, we evaluated the relative sensitivity of each plant part to climate variables and assessed whether this sensitivity is consistent across three different types of environments in northwestern Québec, Canada (terrace, hilltop and snowbed). We found that root collars had greater sensitivity to climate than stems and that these differences were maintained across the three types of environments. Growth at the root collar was best explained by spring precipitation and summer temperature, whereas stem growth showed weak and inconsistent responses to climate variables. Moreover, sensitivity to climate was not consistent among plant parts, as individuals having climate-sensitive root collars did not tend to have climate-sensitive stems. These differences in sensitivity of shrub parts to climate highlight the complexity of resource allocation in multi-stemmed plants. Whereas stem initiation and growth are driven by microenvironmental variables such as light availability and competition, root collars integrate the growth of all plant parts instead, rendering them less affected by mechanisms such as competition and more responsive to signals of global change. Although further investigations are required to determine the degree to which these findings are generalizable across the tundra biome, our results indicate that consistency and caution in the choice of plant parts are a key

  2. Wood production response to climate change will depend critically on forest composition and structure.

    PubMed

    Coomes, David A; Flores, Olivier; Holdaway, Robert; Jucker, Tommaso; Lines, Emily R; Vanderwel, Mark C

    2014-12-01

    Established forests currently function as a major carbon sink, sequestering as woody biomass about 26% of global fossil fuel emissions. Whether forests continue to act as a global sink will depend on many factors, including the response of aboveground wood production (AWP; MgC ha(-1 ) yr(-1) ) to climate change. Here, we explore how AWP in New Zealand's natural forests is likely to change. We start by statistically modelling the present-day growth of 97 199 individual trees within 1070 permanently marked inventory plots as a function of tree size, competitive neighbourhood and climate. We then use these growth models to identify the factors that most influence present-day AWP and to predict responses to medium-term climate change under different assumptions. We find that if the composition and structure of New Zealand's forests were to remain unchanged over the next 30 years, then AWP would increase by 6-23%, primarily as a result of physiological responses to warmer temperatures (with no appreciable effect of changing rainfall). However, if warmth-requiring trees were able to migrate into currently cooler areas and if denser canopies were able to form, then a different AWP response is likely: forests growing in the cool mountain environments would show a 30% increase in AWP, while those in the lowland would hardly respond (on average, -3% when mean annual temperature exceeds 8.0 °C). We conclude that response of wood production to anthropogenic climate change is not only dependent on the physiological responses of individual trees, but is highly contingent on whether forests adjust in composition and structure. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Chapter 3. Effects of climate change and commercial fishing on Atlantic cod Gadus morhua.

    PubMed

    Mieszkowska, Nova; Genner, Martin J; Hawkins, Stephen J; Sims, David W

    2009-01-01

    During the course of the last century, populations of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua L. have undergone dramatic declines in abundance across their biogeographic range, leading to debate about the relative roles of climatic warming and overfishing in driving these changes. In this chapter, we describe the geographic distributions of this important predator of North Atlantic ecosystems and document extensive evidence for limitations of spatial movement and local adaptation from population genetic markers and electronic tagging. Taken together, this evidence demonstrates that knowledge of spatial population ecology is critical for evaluating the effects of climate change and commercial harvesting. To explore the possible effects of climate change on cod, we first describe thermal influences on individual physiology, growth, activity and maturation. We then evaluate evidence that temperature has influenced population-level processes including direct effects on recruitment through enhanced growth and activity, and indirect effects through changes to larval food resources. Although thermal regimes clearly define the biogeographic range of the species, and strongly influence many aspects of cod biology, the evidence that population declines across the North Atlantic are strongly linked to fishing activity is now overwhelming. Although there is considerable concern about low spawning stock biomasses, high levels of fishing activity continues in many areas. Even with reduced fishing effort, the potential for recovery from low abundance may be compromised by unfavourable climate and Allee effects. Current stock assessment and management approaches are reviewed, alongside newly advocated methods for monitoring stock status and recovery. However, it remains uncertain whether the rebuilding of cod to historic population sizes and demographic structures will be possible in a warmer North Atlantic.

  4. Complex responses of spring vegetation growth to climate in a moisture-limited alpine meadow

    PubMed Central

    Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Gao, Qingzhu; Schwartz, Mark W.; Zhu, Wenquan; Liang, Yan; Li, Yue; Wan, Yunfan; Cao, Xujuan; Williamson, Matthew A.; Jiangcun, Wangzha; Guo, Hongbao; Lin, Erda

    2016-01-01

    Since 2000, the phenology has advanced in some years and at some locations on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, whereas it has been delayed in others. To understand the variations in spring vegetation growth in response to climate, we conducted both regional and experimental studies on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We used the normalized difference vegetation index to identify correlations between climate and phenological greening, and found that greening correlated negatively with winter-spring time precipitation, but not with temperature. We used open top chambers to induce warming in an alpine meadow ecosystem from 2012 to 2014. Our results showed that in the early growing season, plant growth (represented by the net ecosystem CO2 exchange, NEE) was lower in the warmed plots than in the control plots. Late-season plant growth increased with warming relative to that under control conditions. These data suggest that the response of plant growth to warming is complex and non-intuitive in this system. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that moisture limitation increases in early spring as temperature increases. The effects of moisture limitation on plant growth with increasing temperatures will have important ramifications for grazers in this system. PMID:26983697

  5. Complex responses of spring vegetation growth to climate in a moisture-limited alpine meadow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Gao, Qingzhu; Schwartz, Mark W.; Zhu, Wenquan; Liang, Yan; Li, Yue; Wan, Yunfan; Cao, Xujuan; Williamson, Matthew A.; Jiangcun, Wangzha; Guo, Hongbao; Lin, Erda

    2016-03-01

    Since 2000, the phenology has advanced in some years and at some locations on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, whereas it has been delayed in others. To understand the variations in spring vegetation growth in response to climate, we conducted both regional and experimental studies on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We used the normalized difference vegetation index to identify correlations between climate and phenological greening, and found that greening correlated negatively with winter-spring time precipitation, but not with temperature. We used open top chambers to induce warming in an alpine meadow ecosystem from 2012 to 2014. Our results showed that in the early growing season, plant growth (represented by the net ecosystem CO2 exchange, NEE) was lower in the warmed plots than in the control plots. Late-season plant growth increased with warming relative to that under control conditions. These data suggest that the response of plant growth to warming is complex and non-intuitive in this system. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that moisture limitation increases in early spring as temperature increases. The effects of moisture limitation on plant growth with increasing temperatures will have important ramifications for grazers in this system.

  6. Complex responses of spring vegetation growth to climate in a moisture-limited alpine meadow.

    PubMed

    Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Gao, Qingzhu; Schwartz, Mark W; Zhu, Wenquan; Liang, Yan; Li, Yue; Wan, Yunfan; Cao, Xujuan; Williamson, Matthew A; Jiangcun, Wangzha; Guo, Hongbao; Lin, Erda

    2016-03-17

    Since 2000, the phenology has advanced in some years and at some locations on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, whereas it has been delayed in others. To understand the variations in spring vegetation growth in response to climate, we conducted both regional and experimental studies on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We used the normalized difference vegetation index to identify correlations between climate and phenological greening, and found that greening correlated negatively with winter-spring time precipitation, but not with temperature. We used open top chambers to induce warming in an alpine meadow ecosystem from 2012 to 2014. Our results showed that in the early growing season, plant growth (represented by the net ecosystem CO2 exchange, NEE) was lower in the warmed plots than in the control plots. Late-season plant growth increased with warming relative to that under control conditions. These data suggest that the response of plant growth to warming is complex and non-intuitive in this system. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that moisture limitation increases in early spring as temperature increases. The effects of moisture limitation on plant growth with increasing temperatures will have important ramifications for grazers in this system.

  7. Response of the European ecosystems to climate change: a modelling approach for the 21st century.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dury, Marie; Warnant, Pierre; François, Louis; Henrot, Alexandra; Favre, Eric; Hambuckers, Alain

    2010-05-01

    According to projections, over the 21st century, significant climatic changes appear and will be strengthened all over the world with the continuing increase of the atmospheric CO2 level. Climate will be generally warmer with notably changes in the seasonality and in the precipitation regime. These changes will have major impacts on the environment and on the biodiversity of natural ecosystems. Geographic distribution of ecosystems may be modified since species will be driven to migrate towards more suitable areas (e. g., shifting of the arctic tree lines). The CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Carbon Assimilation in the Biosphere) forced with 21st century climate scenarios of the IPCC (ARPEGE-Climat model) is used to illustrate and analyse the potential impacts of climate change on tree species distribution and productivity over Europe. Changes in hydrological budget (e. g., runoff) and fire effects on forests will also be shown. Transient runs (1975-2100) with a new dynamic module introduced in CARAIB are performed to follow the future evolutions. In the new module, the processes of species establishment, competition and mortality due to stresses and disturbances have been improved. Among others, increased atmospheric CO2 and warmer climate increase tree productivity while drier conditions decrease it. Regions with more severe droughts will also be affected by an increase of wildfire frequency, which may have large impacts on vegetation density and distribution.

  8. Climate fluctuations in the Czech Lands from AD 1500 compiled from various proxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobrovolný, Petr; Brázdil, Rudolf; Možný, Martin; Trnka, Miroslav; Řezníčková, Ladislava; Kotyza, Oldřich; Valášek, Hubert; Dolák, Lukáš

    2017-04-01

    The territory of the Czech Lands (recent Czech Republic) belongs to European areas well covered by dedrochronological, documentary and instrumental data which can be used for climate reconstructions for the last c. 500 years, i.e. for description of climate fluctuations during the greater part of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the subsequent period of the recent Global Warming. Synthesis of various existing reconstructions should help to create more consistent description of climate variability in that period in Central Europe. The contribution starts from characteristic of the basic features of three existing data sources and a general method of climate reconstruction. Monthly, seasonal and annual climate reconstructions based on different data are presented: a) temperature reconstructions derived from series of temperature indices, winter wheat harvest days and grape harvest days; b) precipitation reconstructions derived from series of precipitation indices and fir tree-rings; c) drought indices (SPI, SPEI, Z-index and PDSI) reconstructions derived from series of fir tree-rings, grape harvest days and documentary-based temperature and precipitation reconstructions. Basic features of past c. 500 years are represented by various time intervals of cooler and warmer climate on the one hand and wetter and drier climate on the other. Examples of such particularly warmer and drier period can be the 1530s (with extreme 1540 year) or colder and wetter conditions during the 1590s and 1690s. Outstanding extreme weather events during LIA in Central Europe are briefly mentioned and our findings are discussed with respect to climate fluctuations and forcings in wider European context. (This study was supported by Czech Science Foundation, project nos. 13-04291S and 17-10026S).

  9. Disturbance legacies and climate jointly drive tree growth and mortality in an intensively studied boreal forest.

    PubMed

    Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Rocha, Adrian V; Calvin, Katherine; Holmes, Bruce; Wang, Chuankuan; Goulden, Michael L

    2014-01-01

    Most North American forests are at some stage of post-disturbance regrowth, subject to a changing climate, and exhibit growth and mortality patterns that may not be closely coupled to annual environmental conditions. Distinguishing the possibly interacting effects of these processes is necessary to put short-term studies in a longer term context, and particularly important for the carbon-dense, fire-prone boreal forest. The goals of this study were to combine dendrochronological sampling, inventory records, and machine-learning algorithms to understand how tree growth and death have changed at one highly studied site (Northern Old Black Spruce, NOBS) in the central Canadian boreal forest. Over the 1999-2012 inventory period, mean tree diameter increased even as stand density and basal area declined significantly. Tree mortality averaged 1.4 ± 0.6% yr-(1), with most mortality occurring in medium-sized trees; new recruitment was minimal. There have been at least two, and probably three, significant influxes of new trees since stand initiation, but none in recent decades. A combined tree ring chronology constructed from sampling in 2001, 2004, and 2012 showed several periods of extreme growth depression, with increased mortality lagging depressed growth by ~5 years. Higher minimum and maximum air temperatures exerted a negative influence on tree growth, while precipitation and climate moisture index had a positive effect; both current- and previous-year data exerted significant effects. Models based on these variables explained 23-44% of the ring-width variability. We suggest that past climate extremes led to significant mortality still visible in the current forest structure, with decadal dynamics superimposed on slower patterns of fire and succession. These results have significant implications for our understanding of previous work at NOBS, the carbon sequestration capability of old-growth stands in a disturbance-prone landscape, and the sustainable management of

  10. Climatic Stress during Stand Development Alters the Sign and Magnitude of Age-Related Growth Responses in a Subtropical Mountain Pine.

    PubMed

    Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Madrigal-González, Jaime; Young, Sarah; Mercatoris, Pierre; Cavin, Liam; Huang, Tsurng-Juhn; Chen, Jan-Chang; Jump, Alistair S

    2015-01-01

    The modification of typical age-related growth by environmental changes is poorly understood, In part because there is a lack of consensus at individual tree level regarding age-dependent growth responses to climate warming as stands develop. To increase our current understanding about how multiple drivers of environmental change can modify growth responses as trees age we used tree ring data of a mountain subtropical pine species along an altitudinal gradient covering more than 2,200 m of altitude. We applied mixed-linear models to determine how absolute and relative age-dependent growth varies depending on stand development; and to quantify the relative importance of tree age and climate on individual tree growth responses. Tree age was the most important factor for tree growth in models parameterised using data from all forest developmental stages. Contrastingly, the relationship found between tree age and growth became non-significant in models parameterised using data corresponding to mature stages. These results suggest that although absolute tree growth can continuously increase along tree size when trees reach maturity age had no effect on growth. Tree growth was strongly reduced under increased annual temperature, leading to more constant age-related growth responses. Furthermore, young trees were the most sensitive to reductions in relative growth rates, but absolute growth was strongly reduced under increased temperature in old trees. Our results help to reconcile previous contrasting findings of age-related growth responses at the individual tree level, suggesting that the sign and magnitude of age-related growth responses vary with stand development. The different responses found to climate for absolute and relative growth rates suggest that young trees are particularly vulnerable under warming climate, but reduced absolute growth in old trees could alter the species' potential as a carbon sink in the future.

  11. Sensitivity of tree ring growth to local and large-scale climate variability in a region of Southeastern Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venegas-González, Alejandro; Chagas, Matheus Peres; Anholetto Júnior, Claudio Roberto; Alvares, Clayton Alcarde; Roig, Fidel Alejandro; Tomazello Filho, Mario

    2016-01-01

    We explored the relationship between tree growth in two tropical species and local and large-scale climate variability in Southeastern Brazil. Tree ring width chronologies of Tectona grandis (teak) and Pinus caribaea (Caribbean pine) trees were compared with local (Water Requirement Satisfaction Index—WRSI, Standardized Precipitation Index—SPI, and Palmer Drought Severity Index—PDSI) and large-scale climate indices that analyze the equatorial pacific sea surface temperature (Trans-Niño Index-TNI and Niño-3.4-N3.4) and atmospheric circulation variations in the Southern Hemisphere (Antarctic Oscillation-AAO). Teak trees showed positive correlation with three indices in the current summer and fall. A significant correlation between WRSI index and Caribbean pine was observed in the dry season preceding tree ring formation. The influence of large-scale climate patterns was observed only for TNI and AAO, where there was a radial growth reduction in months preceding the growing season with positive values of the TNI in teak trees and radial growth increase (decrease) during December (March) to February (May) of the previous (current) growing season with positive phase of the AAO in teak (Caribbean pine) trees. The development of a new dendroclimatological study in Southeastern Brazil sheds light to local and large-scale climate influence on tree growth in recent decades, contributing in future climate change studies.

  12. Growth gains from selective breeding in a spruce hybrid zone do not compromise local adaptation to climate.

    PubMed

    MacLachlan, Ian R; Yeaman, Sam; Aitken, Sally N

    2018-02-01

    Hybrid zones contain extensive standing genetic variation that facilitates rapid responses to selection. The Picea glauca  ×  Picea engelmannii hybrid zone in western Canada is the focus of tree breeding programs that annually produce ~90 million reforestation seedlings. Understanding the direct and indirect effects of selective breeding on adaptive variation is necessary to implement assisted gene flow (AGF) polices in Alberta and British Columbia that match these seedlings with future climates. We decomposed relationships among hybrid ancestry, adaptive traits, and climate to understand the implications of selective breeding for climate adaptations and AGF strategies. The effects of selection on associations among hybrid index estimated from ~6,500 SNPs, adaptive traits, and provenance climates were assessed for ~2,400 common garden seedlings. Hybrid index differences between natural and selected seedlings within breeding zones were small in Alberta (average +2%), but larger and more variable in BC (average -7%, range -24% to +1%), slightly favoring P. glauca ancestry. The average height growth gain of selected seedlings over natural seedlings within breeding zones was 36% (range 12%-86%). Clines in growth with temperature-related variables were strong, but differed little between selected and natural populations. Seedling hybrid index and growth trait associations with evapotranspiration-related climate variables were stronger in selected than in natural seedlings, indicating possible preadaptation to drier future climates. Associations among cold hardiness, hybrid ancestry, and cold-related climate variables dominated signals of local adaptation and were preserved in breeding populations. Strong hybrid ancestry-phenotype-climate associations suggest that AGF will be necessary to match interior spruce breeding populations with shifting future climates. The absence of antagonistic selection responses among traits and maintenance of cold adaptation in

  13. Differential sensitivity to climate change of C and N cycling processes across soil horizons in a northern hardwood forest

    Treesearch

    Jorge Durán; Jennifer L. Morse; Alexandra Rodríguez; John L. Campbell; Lynn M. Christenson; Charles T. Driscoll; Timothy J. Fahey; Melany C. Fisk; Myron J. Mitchell; Pamela H. Templer; Peter M. Groffman

    2017-01-01

    Climate of the northern hardwood forests of North America will become significantly warmer in the coming decades. Associated increases in soil temperature, decreases in water availability and changes in winter snow pack and soil frost are likely to affect soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling. Most studies of the effects of climate change on soil function have...

  14. Climate, CO2, and demographic impacts on global wildfire emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

    2015-09-01

    continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load, and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.

  15. Climate change overruns resilience conferred by temperature-dependent sex determination in sea turtles and threatens their survival.

    PubMed

    Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Genovart, Meritxell; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R; Oro, Daniel

    2015-08-01

    Temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) is the predominant form of environmental sex determination (ESD) in reptiles, but the adaptive significance of TSD in this group remains unclear. Additionally, the viability of species with TSD may be compromised as climate gets warmer. We simulated population responses in a turtle with TSD to increasing nest temperatures and compared the results to those of a virtual population with genotypic sex determination (GSD) and fixed sex ratios. Then, we assessed the effectiveness of TSD as a mechanism to maintain populations under climate change scenarios. TSD populations were more resilient to increased nest temperatures and mitigated the negative effects of high temperatures by increasing production of female offspring and therefore, future fecundity. That buffered the negative effect of temperature on the population growth. TSD provides an evolutionary advantage to sea turtles. However, this mechanism was only effective over a range of temperatures and will become inefficient as temperatures rise to levels projected by current climate change models. Projected global warming threatens survival of sea turtles, and the IPCC high gas concentration scenario may result in extirpation of the studied population in 50 years. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Climate change, fire management, and ecological services in the southwestern US

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hurteau, Matthew D.; Bradford, John B.; Fulé, Peter Z.; Taylor, Alan H.; Martin, Katherine L.

    2014-01-01

    The diverse forest types of the southwestern US are inseparable from fire. Across climate zones in California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico, fire suppression has left many forest types out of sync with their historic fire regimes. As a result, high fuel loads place them at risk of severe fire, particularly as fire activity increases due to climate change. A legacy of fire exclusion coupled with a warming climate has led to increasingly large and severe wildfires in many southwest forest types. Climate change projections include an extended fire season length due to earlier snowmelt and a general drying trend due to rising temperatures. This suggests the future will be warmer and drier regardless of changes in precipitation. Hotter, drier conditions are likely to increase forest flammability, at least initially. Changes in climate alone have the potential to alter the distribution of vegetation types within the region, and climate-driven shifts in vegetation distribution are likely to be accelerated when coupled with stand-replacing fire. Regardless of the rate of change, the interaction of climate and fire and their effects on Southwest ecosystems will alter the provisioning of ecosystem services, including carbon storage and biodiversity. Interactions between climate, fire, and vegetation growth provide a source of great uncertainty in projecting future fire activity in the region, as post-fire forest recovery is strongly influenced by climate and subsequent fire frequency. Severe fire can be mitigated with fuels management including prescribed fire, thinning, and wildfire management, but new strategies are needed to ensure the effectiveness of treatments across landscapes. We review the current understanding of the relationship between fire and climate in the Southwest, both historical and projected. We then discuss the potential implications of climate change for fire management and examine the potential effects of climate change and fire on ecosystem

  17. Thermal controls of Yellowstone cutthroat trout and invasive fishes under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Alder, Jay R.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Gresswell, Robert E.; Shepard, Bradley

    2013-01-01

    We combine large observed data sets and dynamically downscaled climate data to explore historic and future (2050–2069) stream temperature changes over the topographically diverse Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (elevation range = 824–4017 m). We link future stream temperatures with fish growth models to investigate how changing thermal regimes could influence the future distribution and persistence of native Yellowstone cutthroat trout (YCT) and competing invasive species. We find that stream temperatures during the recent decade (2000–2009) surpass the anomalously warm period of the 1930s. Climate simulations indicate air temperatures will warm by 1 °C to >3 °C over the Greater Yellowstone by mid-21st century, resulting in concomitant increases in 2050–2069 peak stream temperatures and protracted periods of warming from May to September (MJJAS). Projected changes in thermal regimes during the MJJAS growing season modify the trajectories of daily growth rates at all elevations with pronounced growth during early and late summer. For high-elevation populations, we find considerable increases in fish body mass attributable both to warming of cold-water temperatures and to extended growing seasons. During peak July to August warming, mid-21st century temperatures will cause periods of increased thermal stress, rendering some low-elevation streams less suitable for YCT. The majority (80%) of sites currently inhabited by YCT, however, display minimal loss (<10%) or positive changes in total body mass by midcentury; we attribute this response to the fact that many low-elevation populations of YCT have already been extirpated by historical changes in land use and invasions of non-native species. Our results further suggest that benefits to YCT populations due to warmer stream temperatures at currently cold sites could be offset by the interspecific effects of corresponding growth of sympatric, non-native species, underscoring the importance of developing

  18. Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition ameliorates the decline in tree growth caused by a drier climate.

    PubMed

    Ibáñez, Inés; Zak, Donald R; Burton, Andrew J; Pregitzer, Kurt S

    2018-02-01

    Most forest ecosystems are simultaneously affected by concurrent global change drivers. However, when assessing these effects, studies have mainly focused on the responses to single factors and have rarely evaluated the joined effects of the multiple aspects of environmental change. Here, we analyzed the combined effects of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition and climatic conditions on the radial growth of Acer saccharum, a dominant tree species in eastern North American forests. We capitalized on a long-term N deposition study, replicated along a latitudinal gradient, that has been taking place for more than 20 yr. We analyzed tree radial growth as a function of anthropogenic N deposition (ambient and experimental addition) and of summer temperature and soil water conditions. Our results reveal that experimental N deposition enhances radial growth of this species, an effect that was accentuated as temperature increased and soil water became more limiting. The spatial and temporal extent of our data also allowed us to assert that the positive effects of growing under the experimental N deposition are likely due to changes in the physiological performance of this species, and not due to the positive correlation between soil N and soil water holding capacity, as has been previously speculated in other studies. Our simulations of tree growth under forecasted climate scenarios specific for this region also revealed that although anthropogenic N deposition may enhance tree growth under a large array of environmental conditions, it will not mitigate the expected effects of growing under the considerably drier conditions characteristic of our most extreme climatic scenario. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  19. The effects of increased stream temperatures on juvenile steelhead growth in the Yakima River Basin based on projected climate change scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hardiman, Jill M.; Mesa, Matthew G.

    2013-01-01

    Stakeholders within the Yakima River Basin expressed concern over impacts of climate change on mid-Columbia River steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), listed under the Endangered Species Act. We used a bioenergetics model to assess the impacts of changing stream temperatures—resulting from different climate change scenarios—on growth of juvenile steelhead in the Yakima River Basin. We used diet and fish size data from fieldwork in a bioenergetics model and integrated baseline and projected stream temperatures from down-scaled air temperature climate modeling into our analysis. The stream temperature models predicted that daily mean temperatures of salmonid-rearing streams in the basin could increase by 1–2°C and our bioenergetics simulations indicated that such increases could enhance the growth of steelhead in the spring, but reduce it during the summer. However, differences in growth rates of fish living under different climate change scenarios were minor, ranging from about 1–5%. Because our analysis focused mostly on the growth responses of steelhead to changes in stream temperatures, further work is needed to fully understand the potential impacts of climate change. Studies should include evaluating changing stream flows on fish activity and energy budgets, responses of aquatic insects to climate change, and integration of bioenergetics, population dynamics, and habitat responses to climate change.

  20. Vulnerability of white spruce tree growth in interior Alaska in response to climate variability: Dendrochronological, demographic, and experimental perspectives

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGuire, A. David; Ruess, Roger W.; Lloyd, A.; Yarie, J.; Clein, Joy S.; Juday, G.P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper integrates dendrochronological, demographic, and experimental perspectives to improve understanding of the response of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) tree growth to climatic variability in interior Alaska. The dendrochronological analyses indicate that climate warming has led to widespread declines in white spruce growth throughout interior Alaska that have become more prevalent during the 20th century. Similarly, demographic studies show that white spruce tree growth is substantially limited by soil moisture availability in both mid- and late-successional stands. Interannual variability in tree growth among stands within a landscape exhibits greater synchrony than does growth of trees that occupy different landscapes, which agrees with dendrochronological findings that the responses depend on landscape position and prevailing climate. In contrast, the results from 18 years of a summer moisture limitation experiment showed that growth in midsuccessional upland stands was unaffected by moisture limitation and that moisture limitation decreased white spruce growth in floodplain stands where it was expected that growth would be less vulnerable because of tree access to river water. Taken together, the evidence from the different perspectives analyzed in this study clearly indicates that white spruce tree growth in interior Alaska is vulnerable to the effects of warming on plant water balance.

  1. Spatial match-mismatch between juvenile fish and prey provides a mechanism for recruitment variability across contrasting climate conditions in the eastern Bering Sea.

    PubMed

    Siddon, Elizabeth Calvert; Kristiansen, Trond; Mueter, Franz J; Holsman, Kirstin K; Heintz, Ron A; Farley, Edward V

    2013-01-01

    Understanding mechanisms behind variability in early life survival of marine fishes through modeling efforts can improve predictive capabilities for recruitment success under changing climate conditions. Walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) support the largest single-species commercial fishery in the United States and represent an ecologically important component of the Bering Sea ecosystem. Variability in walleye pollock growth and survival is structured in part by climate-driven bottom-up control of zooplankton composition. We used two modeling approaches, informed by observations, to understand the roles of prey quality, prey composition, and water temperature on juvenile walleye pollock growth: (1) a bioenergetics model that included local predator and prey energy densities, and (2) an individual-based model that included a mechanistic feeding component dependent on larval development and behavior, local prey densities and size, and physical oceanographic conditions. Prey composition in late-summer shifted from predominantly smaller copepod species in the warmer 2005 season to larger species in the cooler 2010 season, reflecting differences in zooplankton composition between years. In 2010, the main prey of juvenile walleye pollock were more abundant, had greater biomass, and higher mean energy density, resulting in better growth conditions. Moreover, spatial patterns in prey composition and water temperature lead to areas of enhanced growth, or growth 'hot spots', for juvenile walleye pollock and survival may be enhanced when fish overlap with these areas. This study provides evidence that a spatial mismatch between juvenile walleye pollock and growth 'hot spots' in 2005 contributed to poor recruitment while a higher degree of overlap in 2010 resulted in improved recruitment. Our results indicate that climate-driven changes in prey quality and composition can impact growth of juvenile walleye pollock, potentially severely affecting recruitment variability.

  2. Middle Pliocene vegetation: Reconstructions, paleoclimatic inferences, and boundary conditions for climate modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thompson, R.S.; Fleming, R.F.

    1996-01-01

    The general characteristics of global vegetation during the middle Pliocene warm period can be reconstructed from fossil pollen and plant megafossil data. The largest differences between Pliocene vegetation and that of today occurred at high latitudes in both hemispheres, where warming was pronounced relative to today. In the Northern Hemisphere coniferous forests lived in the modern tundra and polar desert regions, whereas in the Southern Hemisphere southern beech apparently grew in coastal areas of Antarctica. Pliocene middle latitude vegetation differed less, although moister-than-modern conditions supported forest and woodland growth in some regions now covered by steppe or grassland. Pliocene tropical vegetation reflects essentially modern conditions in some regions and slightly cooler-than-or warmer-than- modern climates in other areas. Changes in topography induced by tectonics may be responsible for many of the climatic changes since the Pliocene in both middle and lower latitudes. However, the overall latitudinal progression of climatic conditions on land parallels that seen in the reconstruction of middle Pliocene sea-surface temperatures. Pliocene paleovegetational data was employed to construct a 2????2?? global grid of estimated mid-Pliocene vegetational cover for use as boundary conditions for numerical General Circulation Model simulations of middle Pliocene climates. Continental outlines and topography were first modified to represent the Pliocene landscape on the 2????2?? grid. A modern 1????1?? vegetation grid was simplified and mapped on this Pliocene grid, and then modified following general geographic trends evident in the Pliocene paleovegetation data set.

  3. Linking climate change and biological invasions: Ocean warming facilitates nonindigenous species invasions.

    PubMed

    Stachowicz, John J; Terwin, Jeffrey R; Whitlatch, Robert B; Osman, Richard W

    2002-11-26

    The spread of exotic species and climate change are among the most serious global environmental threats. Each independently causes considerable ecological damage, yet few data are available to assess whether changing climate might facilitate invasions by favoring introduced over native species. Here, we compare our long-term record of weekly sessile marine invertebrate recruitment with interannual variation in water temperature to assess the likely effect of climate change on the success and spread of introduced species. For the three most abundant introduced species of ascidian (sea squirt), the timing of the initiation of recruitment was strongly negatively correlated with winter water temperature, indicating that invaders arrived earlier in the season in years with warmer winters. Total recruitment of introduced species during the following summer also was positively correlated with winter water temperature. In contrast, the magnitude of native ascidian recruitment was negatively correlated with winter temperature (more recruitment in colder years) and the timing of native recruitment was unaffected. In manipulative laboratory experiments, two introduced compound ascidians grew faster than a native species, but only at temperatures near the maximum observed in summer. These data suggest that the greatest effects of climate change on biotic communities may be due to changing maximum and minimum temperatures rather than annual means. By giving introduced species an earlier start, and increasing the magnitude of their growth and recruitment relative to natives, global warming may facilitate a shift to dominance by nonnative species, accelerating the homogenization of the global biota.

  4. Using Nitrogen Stable Isotope Tracers to Track Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Salt Marshes

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change impacts on coastal salt marshes are predicted to be complex and multi-faceted. In addition to rising sea level and warmer water temperatures, regional precipitation patterns are also expected to change. At least in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic U.S., more severe s...

  5. Unique challenges and opportunities for Northeastern U.S. crop production in a changing climate

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Climate change may both exacerbate the vulnerabilities and open up new opportunities for farming in the Northeastern United States. Among the opportunities are double-cropping and new crop options that may come with warmer temperatures and a longer frost-free period. However, prolonged periods of sp...

  6. Recent climatic drying leads to age-independent growth reductions of white spruce stands in western Canada.

    PubMed

    Hogg, Edward H; Michaelian, Michael; Hook, Trisha I; Undershultz, Michael E

    2017-12-01

    Since 2001, climatic conditions have been notably drier than normal across large areas of the western Canadian interior, leading to widespread impacts on the forests of this region. This poses a major concern for the future, given climate change projections for continued warming and drying. We conducted tree-ring analysis in 75 pure stands of white spruce (Picea glauca) across Alberta and west-central Saskatchewan to examine the effects of recent climatic drying on the growth of this important boreal tree species. Allometric equations were used to calculate annual growth in aboveground tree biomass (G BM ) from ring width measurements. Results showed an increasing trend in G BM from the 1960s to the 1990s, followed by a sharp decline during the severe drought of 2001-2002. Of the 75 stands, only 18 recovered sufficiently to cause an increase in mean G BM from the predrought decade of 1991-2000 to the subsequent decade of 2001-2010. The remaining 57 stands exhibited a decline in mean G BM between these decades. Climatic drying was a major cause of the growth decline, as shown by the significant stand-level relationship between percentage change in decadal mean G BM and the change in decadal mean values of a climate moisture index from 1991-2000 to 2001-2010. Subsequent analyses of boreal stands sampled across Alberta during 2015 revealed that white spruce growth had declined even further as drought conditions intensified during 2014-2015. Overall, there was a 38% decrease in mean G BM between 1997 and 2015, but surprisingly, the percentage decrease was not significantly different for young, productive stands compared with older, less productive stands. Thus, stand ageing cannot explain the observed decline in white spruce growth during the past quarter century, suggesting that these forests are at risk if the trend towards more frequent, severe drought continues in the region. © 2017 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada Global Change Biology ©2017 John Wiley

  7. Predicting tree biomass growth in the temperate-boreal ecotone: is tree size, age, competition or climate response most important?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Foster, Jane R.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.; Banerjee, Sudipto

    2016-01-01

    As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests’ ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals’ size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species likeAcer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92–95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth

  8. Predicting tree biomass growth in the temperate-boreal ecotone: Is tree size, age, competition, or climate response most important?

    PubMed

    Foster, Jane R; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Bradford, John B; Banerjee, Sudipto

    2016-06-01

    As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2 and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests' ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals' size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species like Acer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92-95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses

  9. Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period.

    PubMed

    Haywood, Alan M; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M

    2016-02-16

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change.

  10. Changes in the structural composition and reactivity of Acer rubrum leaf litter tannins exposed to warming and altered precipitation: climatic stress-induced tannins are more reactive.

    PubMed

    Tharayil, Nishanth; Suseela, Vidya; Triebwasser, Daniella J; Preston, Caroline M; Gerard, Patrick D; Dukes, Jeffrey S

    2011-07-01

    Climate change could increase the frequency with which plants experience abiotic stresses, leading to changes in their metabolic pathways. These stresses may induce the production of compounds that are structurally and biologically different from constitutive compounds. • We studied how warming and altered precipitation affected the composition, structure, and biological reactivity of leaf litter tannins in Acer rubrum at the Boston-Area Climate Experiment, in Massachusetts, USA. • Warmer and drier climatic conditions led to higher concentrations of protective compounds, including flavonoids and cutin. The abundance and structure of leaf tannins also responded consistently to climatic treatments. Drought and warming in combination doubled the concentration of total tannins, which reached 30% of leaf-litter DW. This treatment also produced condensed tannins with lower polymerization and a greater proportion of procyanidin units, which in turn reduced sequestration of tannins by litter fiber. Furthermore, because of the structural flexibility of these tannins, litter from this treatment exhibited five times more enzyme (β-glucosidase) complexation capacity on a per-weight basis. Warmer and wetter conditions decreased the amount of foliar condensed tannins. • Our finding that warming and drought result in the production of highly reactive tannins is novel, and highly relevant to climate change research as these tannins, by immobilizing microbial enzymes, could slow litter decomposition and thus carbon and nutrient cycling in a warmer, drier world. © 2011 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2011 New Phytologist Trust.

  11. Abrupt Climate Change in the Southern Great Plains during the Last Glacial Interval

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Housson, A. L.; Maupin, C. R.; Roark, B.; Shen, C. C.; Baykara, O.; White, K.; Kampen-Lewis, S. V.; McChesney, C. L.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding how the climate of the North American Great Plains may change in the future is of tremendous socioeconomic importance, yet the regional response to previous abrupt global climate events, such as the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles of the last glacial interval, are poorly known. Here we present two absolutely dated (U/Th), partially replicated oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from calcite speleothems in central Texas (30° N, 98° W) that grew during marine isotope stage 3 (MIS 3) (31 to 49 ky BP). The study site experiences boreal spring and fall maxima in precipitation with rainfall moisture sourced almost exclusively from the Gulf of Mexico. The two samples exhibit reproducible δ18O means and variability during overlapping growth intervals. Weak correlations between paired oxygen and carbon isotopic values coupled with reproducible δ18O strongly suggest that dripwater δ18O and calcite formation temperatures are the primary drivers of speleothem δ18O variations through time. We interpret more depleted (enriched) δ18O values to reconstruct warmer and wetter (cooler and drier) conditions based on observations of modern rainfall stable isotope variations at the study site. We find that warmer and wetter conditions in the Southern Plains are contemporaneous with MIS 3 DO interstadials, while cooler and more arid conditions prevail during stadials and Heinrich Events 4 and 5. Our results show a response opposite that of hydrologic reconstructions from the American Southwest, where wetter conditions occur with stadial conditions. Future work includes exploration of paleoclimate model results to examine potential mechanisms responsible for this opposite phasing. Our speleothem data indicate that further intensification of rainy seasons in the Southern Plains should not be ruled out as a response to anthropogenic global warming.

  12. Different fire-climate relationships on forested and non-forested landscapes in the Sierra Nevada ecoregion

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

    2015-01-01

    In the California Sierra Nevada region, increased fire activity over the last 50 years has only occurred in the higher-elevation forests on US Forest Service (USFS) lands, and is not characteristic of the lower-elevation grasslands, woodlands and shrublands on state responsibility lands (Cal Fire). Increased fire activity on USFS lands was correlated with warmer and drier springs. Although this is consistent with recent global warming, we found an equally strong relationship between fire activity and climate in the first half of the 20th century. At lower elevations, warmer and drier conditions were not strongly tied to fire activity over the last 90 years, although prior-year precipitation was significant. It is hypothesised that the fire–climate relationship in forests is determined by climatic effects on spring and summer fuel moisture, with hotter and drier springs leading to a longer fire season and more extensive burning. In contrast, future fire activity in the foothills may be more dependent on rainfall patterns and their effect on the herbaceous fuel load. We predict spring and summer warming will have a significant impact on future fire regimes, primarily in higher-elevation forests. Lower elevation ecosystems are likely to be affected as much by global changes that directly involve land-use patterns as by climate change.

  13. Local adaptations and climate change: converging sensitivity of bud break in black spruce provenances.

    PubMed

    Rossi, Sergio

    2015-07-01

    Species with transcontinental distribution or spread over wide geographical regions develop populations with growth traits genetically adapted to the local climate. The aim of this study was to investigate the ecotypic sensitivity of bud break, a strong adaptive trait, to a changing environment. Six phenological phases of bud break were monitored daily on black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP] seedlings submitted to different temperatures (12, 16 and 20 °C) and photoperiods (14, 18 and 22 h). Six provenances were tested in growth chambers, produced from seeds collected along the whole latitudinal range of the closed boreal forest in Quebec, Canada. Bud break lasted 13.3 days on average and occurred earlier in seedlings from colder sites. The annual temperature of the sites suitably tracked the clinal variation among ecotypes, providing a clear biological explanation for the environmental signal driving the adaptive divergence of populations to the local climate. Increasing temperature induced an earlier bud break according to a non-linear pattern with greater advancements observed between 12 and 16 °C. Photoperiod was significant, but sensitivity analysis indicated that its effect on bud break was marginal with respect to temperature. No interaction of provenance × treatment was observed, demonstrating an ecotypic convergence of the responses to both factors. Changes in the growing conditions could substantially modify the synchronization between bud phenology and climate, thus exposing the developing meristems of black spruce to frost damage. However, similar advancements of bud break could be expected in the different ecotypes subjected to warmer temperatures or longer day lengths.

  14. Impact of climate change on cold hardiness of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii): environmental and genetic considerations.

    PubMed

    Bansal, Sheel; St Clair, J Bradley; Harrington, Constance A; Gould, Peter J

    2015-10-01

    The success of conifers over much of the world's terrestrial surface is largely attributable to their tolerance to cold stress (i.e., cold hardiness). Due to an increase in climate variability, climate change may reduce conifer cold hardiness, which in turn could impact ecosystem functioning and productivity in conifer-dominated forests. The expression of cold hardiness is a product of environmental cues (E), genetic differentiation (G), and their interaction (G × E), although few studies have considered all components together. To better understand and manage for the impacts of climate change on conifer cold hardiness, we conducted a common garden experiment replicated in three test environments (cool, moderate, and warm) using 35 populations of coast Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii) to test the hypotheses: (i) cool-temperature cues in fall are necessary to trigger cold hardening, (ii) there is large genetic variation among populations in cold hardiness that can be predicted from seed-source climate variables, (iii) observed differences among populations in cold hardiness in situ are dependent on effective environmental cues, and (iv) movement of seed sources from warmer to cooler climates will increase risk to cold injury. During fall 2012, we visually assessed cold damage of bud, needle, and stem tissues following artificial freeze tests. Cool-temperature cues (e.g., degree hours below 2 °C) at the test sites were associated with cold hardening, which were minimal at the moderate test site owing to mild fall temperatures. Populations differed 3-fold in cold hardiness, with winter minimum temperatures and fall frost dates as strong seed-source climate predictors of cold hardiness, and with summer temperatures and aridity as secondary predictors. Seed-source movement resulted in only modest increases in cold damage. Our findings indicate that increased fall temperatures delay cold hardening, warmer/drier summers confer a degree of cold

  15. Climate perceptions of local communities validated through scientific signals in Sikkim Himalaya, India.

    PubMed

    Sharma, R K; Shrestha, D G

    2016-10-01

    Sikkim, a tiny Himalayan state situated in the north-eastern region of India, records limited research on the climate change. Understanding the changes in climate based on the perceptions of local communities can provide important insights for the preparedness against the unprecedented consequences of climate change. A total of 228 households in 12 different villages of Sikkim, India, were interviewed using eight climate change indicators. The results from the public opinions showed a significant increase in temperature compared to a decade earlier, winters are getting warmer, water springs are drying up, change in concept of spring-water recharge (locally known as Mul Phutnu), changes in spring season, low crop yields, incidences of mosquitoes during winter, and decrease in rainfall in last 10 years. In addition, study also showed significant positive correlations of increase in temperature with other climate change indicators viz. spring-water recharge concept (R (2) = 0.893), warmer winter (R (2) = 0.839), drying up of water springs (R (2) = 0.76), changes in spring season (R (2) = 0.68), low crop yields (R (2) = 0.68), decrease in rainfall (R (2) = 0.63), and incidences of mosquitoes in winter (R (2) = 0.50). The air temperature for two meteorological stations of Sikkim indicated statistically significant increasing trend in mean minimum temperature and mean minimum winter temperature (DJF). The observed climate change is consistent with the people perceptions. This information can help in planning specific adaptation strategies to cope with the impacts of climate change by framing village-level action plan.

  16. Public Perception of Climate Change and the New Climate Dice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto

    2012-01-01

    "Climate dice", describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have become more and more "loaded" in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3 sigma) warmer than the climatology of the 1951-1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming, because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change.

  17. Progress in Australian dendroclimatology: Identifying growth limiting factors in four climate zones.

    PubMed

    Haines, Heather A; Olley, Jon M; Kemp, Justine; English, Nathan B

    2016-12-01

    Dendroclimatology can be used to better understand past climate in regions such as Australia where instrumental and historical climate records are sparse and rarely extend beyond 100years. Here we review 36 Australian dendroclimatic studies which cover the four major climate zones of Australia; temperate, arid, subtropical and tropical. We show that all of these zones contain tree and shrub species which have the potential to provide high quality records of past climate. Despite this potential only four dendroclimatic reconstructions have been published for Australia, one from each of the climate zones: A 3592year temperature record for the SE-temperate zone, a 350year rainfall record for the Western arid zone, a 140year rainfall record for the northern tropics and a 146year rainfall record for SE-subtropics. We report on the spatial distribution of tree-ring studies, the environmental variables identified as limiting tree growth in each study, and identify the key challenges in using tree-ring records for climate reconstruction in Australia. We show that many Australian species have yet to be tested for dendroclimatological potential, and that the application of newer techniques including isotopic analysis, carbon dating, wood density measurements, and anatomical analysis, combined with traditional ring-width measurements should enable more species in each of the climate zones to be used, and long-term climate records to be developed across the entire continent. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Strong sea forcing and warmer winter during solar minima ˜2765 yr B.P. recorded in the growth bands of Crassostrea sp . from the confluence of river Ganges, Eastern India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banerjee, Yogaraj; Ghosh, Prosenjit; Bhushan, Ravi; Rahul, P.

    2018-06-01

    Long term variation of solar activity plays a key role in controlling climatic oscillations during glacial-interglacial cycles. The records of such climatic shifts can be retrieved from sedimentary archives in overbank deposits found in the estuary regions of major rivers in the tropics which are fed by glaciers. In this study we have shown the effect of solar variability on regional climate by altering the river discharge and incursion of warm water pool into the region adjoining Bay of Bengal during seasonal dry period. The incremental growth bands present in the modern day Meretrix sp and Late Holocene Crassostrea sp. were examined for reconstruction of temperature and water composition at the head bay region of the river Ganges. The conventional C14 techniques on fossil oyster yielded age of 2765 ± 130 yr B.P., which coincides with a solar minima. Analysis of clumped isotope thermometry on the growth bands provided temperature estimates for the growth of shells. The temperature estimates for the modern shell, suggesting range of values showed a range between 13° and 42°C, close to the observed temperatures recorded in the climatological data while the fossil shell had a range of values between 22° and 38°C. The δ18O measured in the aragonite together with the estimated temperature were used to deduce the water composition during growth at equilibrium condition. The water δ18O varied between -4.78‰ and 1.2‰ for the modern sample, close to the observed values of water measured near this locality, while the range in water composition inferred for the paleo samples was from -2.37‰ to 0.82‰, suggesting a stronger influence of sea water throughout the year. The results are consistent with the argument of infiltration of water from neighbouring warm water pool into the estuary. A similar approach can be extended to evaluate the effects of climate variability due to differential action of river discharge into the sea at seasonal time scales based on

  19. Climate change projections for Greek viticulture as simulated by a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lazoglou, Georgia; Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Koundouras, Stefanos

    2017-07-01

    Viticulture represents an important economic activity for Greek agriculture. Winegrapes are cultivated in many areas covering the whole Greek territory, due to the favorable soil and climatic conditions. Given the dependence of viticulture on climate, the vitivinicultural sector is expected to be affected by possible climatic changes. The present study is set out to investigate the impacts of climatic change in Greek viticulture, using nine bioclimatic indices for the period 1981-2100. For this purpose, reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and data from the regional climatic model Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) are used. It was found that the examined regional climate model estimates satisfactorily these bioclimatic indices. The results of the study show that the increasing trend of temperature and drought will affect all wine-producing regions in Greece. In vineyards in mountainous regions, the impact is positive, while in islands and coastal regions, it is negative. Overall, it should be highlighted that for the first time that Greece is classified into common climatic characteristic categories, according to the international Geoviticulture Multicriteria Climatic Classification System (MCC system). According to the proposed classification, Greek viticulture regions are estimated to have similar climatic characteristics with the warmer wine-producing regions of the world up to the end of twenty-first century. Wine growers and winemakers should take the findings of the study under consideration in order to take measures for Greek wine sector adaptation and the continuation of high-quality wine production.

  20. Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change.

    PubMed

    Luo, Jing-Jia; Sasaki, Wataru; Masumoto, Yukio

    2012-11-13

    It has been widely believed that the tropical Pacific trade winds weakened in the last century and would further decrease under a warmer climate in the 21st century. Recent high-quality observations, however, suggest that the tropical Pacific winds have actually strengthened in the past two decades. Precise causes of the recent Pacific climate shift are uncertain. Here we explore how the enhanced tropical Indian Ocean warming in recent decades favors stronger trade winds in the western Pacific via the atmosphere and hence is likely to have contributed to the La Niña-like state (with enhanced east-west Walker circulation) through the Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. Further analysis, based on 163 climate model simulations with centennial historical and projected external radiative forcing, suggests that the Indian Ocean warming relative to the Pacific's could play an important role in modulating the Pacific climate changes in the 20th and 21st centuries.

  1. Forecasting Impacts of Climate Change on Indicators of British Columbia's Biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holmes, Keith Richard

    Understanding the relationships between biodiversity and climate is essential for predicting the impact of climate change on broad-scale landscape processes. Utilizing indirect indicators of biodiversity derived from remotely sensed imagery, we present an approach to forecast shifts in the spatial distribution of biodiversity. Indirect indicators, such as remotely sensed plant productivity metrics, representing landscape seasonality, minimum growth, and total greenness have been linked to species richness over broad spatial scales, providing unique capacity for biodiversity modeling. Our goal is to map future spatial distributions of plant productivity metrics based on expected climate change and to quantify anticipated change to park habitat in British Columbia. Using an archival dataset sourced from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite from the years 1987 to 2007 at 1km spatial resolution, corresponding historical climate data, and regression tree modeling, we developed regional models of the relationships between climate and annual productivity growth. Historical interconnections between climate and annual productivity were coupled with three climate change scenarios modeled by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma) to predict and map productivity components to the year 2065. Results indicate we can expect a warmer and wetter environment, which may lead to increased productivity in the north and higher elevations. Overall, seasonality is expected to decrease and greenness productivity metrics are expected to increase. The Coastal Mountains and high elevation edge habitats across British Columbia are forecasted to experience the greatest amount of change. In the future, protected areas may have potential higher greenness and lower seasonality as represented by indirect biodiversity indicators. The predictive model highlights potential gaps in protection along the central interior and Rocky Mountains. Protected

  2. Warmer weather as a risk factor for hospitalisations due to urinary tract infections.

    PubMed

    Simmering, J E; Cavanaugh, J E; Polgreen, L A; Polgreen, P M

    2018-02-01

    The incidence of urinary tract infections (UTIs) is seasonal, and this seasonality may be explained by changes in weather, specifically, temperature. Using data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, we identified the geographic location for 581 813 hospital admissions with the primary diagnosis of a UTI and 56 630 773 non-UTI hospitalisations in the United States. Next, we used data from the National Climatic Data Center to estimate the monthly average temperature for each location. Using a case-control design, we modelled the odds of a hospital admission having a primary diagnosis of UTI as a function of demographics, payer, location, patient severity, admission month, year and the average temperature for the admission month. We found, after controlling for patient factors and month of admission, the odds of a UTI diagnosis increased with higher temperatures in a dose-dependent manner. For example, relative to months with average temperatures of 5-7.5 °C, an admission in a month with an average temperature of 27.5-30 °C has 20% higher odds of a primary diagnosis of UTI. However, in months with extremely high average temperatures (above 30 °C), the odds of a UTI admissions decrease, perhaps due to changes in behaviour. Thus, at a population level, UTI-related hospitalisations are associated with warmer weather.

  3. In-line Microwave Warmer for Blood and Intravenous Fluids. Phase 2.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-02-15

    occuring in the battlefield often requires restoring normothermia and infusion of fluids, such as saline or blood, into the patient. These two...elevation is required to restore normal body temperature in response to hypothermic cardioplegic arrest induced prior to the operation. 6 1.2 System... Microfiltration Devices," Acta Annaesth Scand, 23:40- 45, 1979. [20] K Linko, K Hynynen, "Erythrocyte Damage Caused by the Haemotherm Microwave Blood Warmer

  4. Relating annual increments of the endangered Blanding's turtle plastron growth to climate

    PubMed Central

    Richard, Monik G; Laroque, Colin P; Herman, Thomas B

    2014-01-01

    This research is the first published study to report a relationship between climate variables and plastron growth increments of turtles, in this case the endangered Nova Scotia Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii). We used techniques and software common to the discipline of dendrochronology to successfully cross-date our growth increment data series, to detrend and average our series of 80 immature Blanding's turtles into one common chronology, and to seek correlations between the chronology and environmental temperature and precipitation variables. Our cross-dated chronology had a series intercorrelation of 0.441 (above 99% confidence interval), an average mean sensitivity of 0.293, and an average unfiltered autocorrelation of 0.377. Our master chronology represented increments from 1975 to 2007 (33 years), with index values ranging from a low of 0.688 in 2006 to a high of 1.303 in 1977. Univariate climate response function analysis on mean monthly air temperature and precipitation values revealed a positive correlation with the previous year's May temperature and current year's August temperature; a negative correlation with the previous year's October temperature; and no significant correlation with precipitation. These techniques for determining growth increment response to environmental variables should be applicable to other turtle species and merit further exploration. PMID:24963390

  5. Relating annual increments of the endangered Blanding's turtle plastron growth to climate.

    PubMed

    Richard, Monik G; Laroque, Colin P; Herman, Thomas B

    2014-05-01

    This research is the first published study to report a relationship between climate variables and plastron growth increments of turtles, in this case the endangered Nova Scotia Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii). We used techniques and software common to the discipline of dendrochronology to successfully cross-date our growth increment data series, to detrend and average our series of 80 immature Blanding's turtles into one common chronology, and to seek correlations between the chronology and environmental temperature and precipitation variables. Our cross-dated chronology had a series intercorrelation of 0.441 (above 99% confidence interval), an average mean sensitivity of 0.293, and an average unfiltered autocorrelation of 0.377. Our master chronology represented increments from 1975 to 2007 (33 years), with index values ranging from a low of 0.688 in 2006 to a high of 1.303 in 1977. Univariate climate response function analysis on mean monthly air temperature and precipitation values revealed a positive correlation with the previous year's May temperature and current year's August temperature; a negative correlation with the previous year's October temperature; and no significant correlation with precipitation. These techniques for determining growth increment response to environmental variables should be applicable to other turtle species and merit further exploration.

  6. Different radial growth responses of co-occurring coniferous forest trees in the Alps to drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oberhuber, Walter; Mennel, Julia

    2010-05-01

    Species-specific drought resistance will effect the development of forest ecosystems under a warmer and drier climate by changing species composition and inducing shifts in forest distribution. Therefore, we applied dendroclimatological techniques to determine drought sensitivity of three native coniferous tree species (Norway spruce, Picea abies; European larch, Larix decidua; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris), which differ in phenological and successional traits and grow intermixed at dry-mesic sites within an inner-Alpine dry valley (750 m a.s.l., Tyrol, Austria). Ring-width chronologies (resolution 1 µm) of each species were developed by extracting two core samples from ≥ 80 mature trees (mean tree age 135 yr). To identify the climatic factors most closely associated with variations in radial tree growth, we calculated response and correlation functions for the common interval from 1911-2007 using yearly tree-ring indices and monthly and seasonal climate variables (precipitation, air temperature) and evaluated growth response to extreme hot and/or dry conditions during the growing season. Additionally, the impact of climate warming on long-term variability of climate-growth relationships was analysed by means of moving response functions. Major finding of our study were: (i) current April through June precipitation was the environmental factor most strongly associated with growth of all three species (r = 0.484, 0.458, and 0.546 for Pinus sylvestris, Larix decidua and Picea abies, respectively; all P < 0.001), whereby Picea abies showed higher correlation coefficients with precipitation from May through June (r = 0.585, P < 0.001). (ii) Annual increment of Picea abies was most strongly limited by May through June temperature (r = -0.500, P < 0.001). (iii) Continuously increasing moving response function coefficients of monthly precipitation variables since the mid-20th century revealed increasing drought sensitivity of all species. During recent decades a

  7. School climate and bullying victimization: a latent class growth model analysis.

    PubMed

    Gage, Nicholas A; Prykanowski, Debra A; Larson, Alvin

    2014-09-01

    Researchers investigating school-level approaches for bullying prevention are beginning to discuss and target school climate as a construct that (a) may predict prevalence and (b) be an avenue for school-wide intervention efforts (i.e., increasing positive school climate). Although promising, research has not fully examined and established the social-ecological link between school climate factors and bullying/peer aggression. To address this gap, we examined the association between school climate factors and bullying victimization for 4,742 students in Grades 3-12 across 3 school years in a large, very diverse urban school district using latent class growth modeling. Across 3 different models (elementary, secondary, and transition to middle school), a 3-class model was identified, which included students at high-risk for bullying victimization. Results indicated that, for all students, respect for diversity and student differences (e.g., racial diversity) predicted within-class decreases in reports of bullying. High-risk elementary students reported that adult support in school was a significant predictor of within-class reduction of bullying, and high-risk secondary students report peer support as a significant predictor of within-class reduction of bullying. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  8. Non-stationary influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and winter temperature on oak latewood growth in NW Iberian Peninsula.

    PubMed

    Rozas, Vicente; García-González, Ignacio

    2012-09-01

    The properties of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as period, amplitude, and teleconnection strength to extratropical regions, have changed since the mid-1970s. ENSO affects the regional climatic regime in SW Europe, thus tree performance in the Iberian Peninsula could be affected by recent ENSO dynamics. We established four Quercus robur chronologies of earlywood and latewood widths in the NW Iberian Peninsula. The relationship between tree growth and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the atmospheric expression of ENSO, showed that only latewood growth was correlated negatively with the SOI of the previous summer-autumn-winter. This relationship was non-stationary, with significant correlations only during the period 1952-1980; and also non-linear, with enhanced latewood growth only in La Niña years, i.e. years with a negative SOI index for the previous autumn. Non-linear relationship between latewood and SOI indicates an asymmetric influence of ENSO on tree performance, biassed towards negative SOI phases. During La Niña years, climate in the study area was warmer and wetter than during positive years, but only for 1952-1980. Winter temperatures became the most limiting factor for latewood growth since 1980, when mean regional temperatures increased by 1°C in comparison to previous periods. As a result, higher winter respiration rates, and the extension of the growing season, would probably cause an additional consumption of stored carbohydrates. The influence of ENSO and winter temperatures proved to be of great importance for tree growth, even at lower altitudes and under mild Atlantic climate in the NW Iberian Peninsula.

  9. Management of plains cottonwood at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Friedman, Jonathan M.; Griffin, Eleanor R.

    2017-01-01

    Warmer temperatures since 1976 have reduced flood peaks and the ice jamming that magnifies those peaks; as a result channel movement, cottonwood establishment and cottonwood growth have decreased. Increasing temperatures associated with global climate change could continue this trend.

  10. Forest responses to climate change in the northwestern United States: ecophysiological foundations for adaptive management

    Treesearch

    Daniel J. Chmura; Paul D. Anderson; Glenn T. Howe; Constance A. Harrington; Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; David C. Shaw; Brad J. St Clair

    2011-01-01

    Climate change resulting from increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide ([C02]) is expected to result in warmer temperatures and changed precipitation regimes during this century. In the northwestern U.S., these changes will likely decrease snowpack, cause earlier snowmelt, increase summer evapotranspiration, and increase the...

  11. National Assessment of Human Health Effects of Climate Change in Portugal: Approach and Key Findings

    PubMed Central

    Casimiro, Elsa; Calheiros, Jose; Santos, Filipe Duarte; Kovats, Sari

    2006-01-01

    In this study we investigated the potential impact of climate change in Portugal on heat-related mortality, air pollution–related health effects, and selected vectorborne diseases. The assessment used climate scenarios from two regional climate models for a range of future time periods. The annual heat-related death rates in Lisbon may increase from between 5.4 and 6 per 100,000 in 1980–1998 to between 8.5 and 12.1 by the 2020s and to a maximum of 29.5 by the 2050s, if no adaptations occur. The projected warmer and more variable weather may result in better dispersion of nitrogen dioxide levels in winter, whereas the higher temperatures may reduce air quality during the warmer months by increasing tropospheric ozone levels. We estimated the future risk of zoonoses using ecologic scenarios to describe future changes in vectors and parasites. Malaria and schistosomiasis, which are currently not endemic in Portugal, are more sensitive to the introduction of infected vectors than to temperature changes. Higher temperatures may increase the transmission risk of zoonoses that are currently endemic to Portugal, such as leishmaniasis, Lyme disease, and Mediterranean spotted fever. PMID:17185290

  12. Simulating stand climate, phenology, and photosynthesis of a forest stand with a process-based growth model.

    PubMed

    Rötzer, Thomas; Leuchner, Michael; Nunn, Angela J

    2010-07-01

    In the face of climate change and accompanying risks, forest management in Europe is becoming increasingly important. Model simulations can help to understand the reactions and feedbacks of a changing environment on tree growth. In order to simulate forest growth based on future climate change scenarios, we tested the basic processes underlying the growth model BALANCE, simulating stand climate (air temperature, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and precipitation), tree phenology, and photosynthesis. A mixed stand of 53- to 60-year-old Norway spruce (Picea abies) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica) in Southern Germany was used as a reference. The results show that BALANCE is able to realistically simulate air temperature gradients in a forest stand using air temperature measurements above the canopy and PAR regimes at different heights for single trees inside the canopy. Interception as a central variable for water balance of a forest stand was also estimated. Tree phenology, i.e. bud burst and leaf coloring, could be reproduced convincingly. Simulated photosynthesis rates were in accordance with measured values for beech both in the sun and the shade crown. For spruce, however, some discrepancies in the rates were obvious, probably due to changed environmental conditions after bud break. Overall, BALANCE has shown to respond to scenario simulations of a changing environment (e.g., climate change, change of forest stand structure).

  13. Poleward shift and weakening of summer season synoptic activity over India in a warming climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ravindran, A. M.; Sandeep, S.; Boos, W. R.; TP, S.; Praveen, V.

    2017-12-01

    One of the main components of the Indian summer monsoon is the presence of low intensity cyclonic systems popularly known as Low Pressure Systems (LPS), which contribute more than half of the precipitation received over the fertile Central Indian region. An average of 13 (±2.5) storms develop each boreal summer, with most originating over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and adjoining land. These systems typically follow a north-west track along the monsoon trough. Despite its significance, the future variability of these storms is not studied, due to the inadequate representation of these systems in current generation climate models. A series of numerical experiments are performed here using the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) with a horizontal grid spacing of 50 km globally to simulate these rain-bearing systems. One set of simulations represents the historical (HIST) period and the other a late 21st century climate scenario based on the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). Four ensemble members of these simulations are run, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) taken from different CMIP5 GCMs selected for their skill in simulating the Indian monsoon. In addition, ten ensemble members of `decadal' experiments are run for both HIST and RCP8.5 to assess model uncertainty, in which the model is forced with annual cycles of decadal mean SSTs. We show that the strength of monsoon LPS activity would decline as much as 50% by the end of the 21st century, under business as usual emission scenario. The overall reduction in the LPS activity is contributed by a 60% decrease in the frequency of storms over the Bay of Bengal, while the weaker systems that form over the land has increased 10% in a warmer climate. Further analysis suggests that a relatively slower rate of warming over the Bay of Bengal compared to the surrounding regions has resulted in an enhanced moist stability over the main genesis region of LPS, which in turn suppressed the growth of

  14. Climate vulnerability of native cold-water salmonids in the Northern Rockies Region [Chapter 5

    Treesearch

    Michael K. Young; Daniel J. Isaak; Scott Spaulding; Cameron A. Thomas; Scott A. Barndt; Matthew C. Groce; Dona Horan; David E. Nagel

    2018-01-01

    During the 21st century, climate change is expected to alter aquatic habitats throughout the Northern Rocky Mountains, intermountain basins, and western Great Plains. Particularly in montane watersheds, direct changes are likely to include warmer water temperatures, earlier snowmelt-driven runoff, earlier declines to summer baseflow, downhill movement of perennial...

  15. Climate Change Detection and Attribution of Infrared Spectrum Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa; Parker, Peter A.; Mlynczak, Martin G.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change occurs when the Earth's energy budget changes due to natural or possibly anthropogenic forcings. These forcings cause the climate system to adjust resulting in a new climate state that is warmer or cooler than the original. The key question is how to detect and attribute climate change. The inference of infrared spectral signatures of climate change has been discussed in the literature for nearly 30 years. Pioneering work in the 1980s noted that distinct spectral signatures would be evident in changes in the infrared radiance emitted by the Earth and its atmosphere, and that these could be observed from orbiting satellites. Since then, a number of other studies have advanced the concepts of spectral signatures of climate change. Today the concept of using spectral signatures to identify and attribute atmospheric composition change is firmly accepted and is the foundation of the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) satellite mission being developed at NASA. In this work, we will present an overview of the current climate change detection concept using climate model calculations as surrogates for climate change. Any future research work improving the methodology to achieve this concept will be valuable to our society.

  16. Robust Spring Drying in the Southwestern U.S. and Seasonal Migration of Wet/Dry Patterns in a Warmer Climate

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gao, Yang; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Lu, Jian

    2014-03-16

    This study compares climate simulations over the United States produced by a regional climate model with the driving global climate simulations as well as a large multi-model ensemble of global climate simulations to investigate robust changes in water availability (precipitation (P) – evapotranspiration (E)). A robust spring dry signal across multiple models is identified in the Southwest that results from a decrease in P and an increase in E in the future. In the boreal winter and summer, the prominent changes in P – E are associated with a north – south dipole pattern, while in spring, the prominent changesmore » in P – E appear as an east – west dipole pattern. The progression of the north – south and east – west dipole patterns through the seasons manifests clearly as a seasonal “clockwise” migration of wet/dry patterns, which is shown to be a robust feature of water availability changes in the US consistent across regional and global climate simulations.« less

  17. Climate Change and Health Risks from Extreme Heat and Air Pollution in the Eastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Limaye, V.; Vargo, J.; Harkey, M.; Holloway, T.; Meier, P.; Patz, J.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to exacerbate health risks from exposure to extreme heat and air pollution through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Directly, warmer ambient temperatures promote biogenic emissions of ozone precursors and favor the formation of ground-level ozone, while an anticipated increase in the frequency of stagnant air masses will allow fine particulates to accumulate. Indirectly, warmer summertime temperatures stimulate energy demand and exacerbate polluting emissions from the electricity sector. Thus, while technological adaptations such as air conditioning can reduce risks from exposures to extreme heat, they can trigger downstream damage to air quality and public health. Through an interdisciplinary modeling effort, we quantify the impacts of climate change on ambient temperatures, summer energy demand, air quality, and public health. The first phase of this work explores how climate change will directly impact the burden of heat-related mortality. Climatic patterns, demographic trends, and epidemiologic risk models suggest that populations in the eastern United States are likely to experience an increasing heat stress mortality burden in response to rising summertime air temperatures. We use North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program modeling data to estimate mid-century 2-meter air temperatures and humidity across the eastern US from June-August, and quantify how long-term changes in actual and apparent temperatures from present-day will affect the annual burden of heat-related mortality across this region. With the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, we estimate health risks using concentration-response functions, which relate temperature increases to changes in annual mortality rates. We compare mid-century summertime temperature data, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, to 2007 baseline temperatures at a 12 km resolution in order to estimate

  18. Climatic variation and the distribution of an amphibian polyploid complex

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Otto, C.R.V.; Snodgrass, J.W.; Forester, D.C.; Mitchell, J.C.; Miller, R.W.

    2007-01-01

    1. The establishment of polyploid populations involves the persistence and growth of the polyploid in the presence of the progenitor species. Although there have been a number of animal polyploid species documented, relatively few inquiries have been made into the large-scale mechanisms of polyploid establishment in animal groups. Herein we investigate the influence of regional climatic conditions on the distributional patterns of a diploid-tetraploid species pair of gray treefrogs, Hyla chrysoscelis and H. versicolor (Anura: Hylidae) in the mid-Atlantic region of eastern North America. 2. Calling surveys at breeding sites were used to document the distribution of each species. Twelve climatic models and one elevation model were generated to predict climatic and elevation values for gray treefrog breeding sites. A canonical analysis of discriminants was used to describe relationships between climatic variables, elevation and the distribution of H. chrysoscelis and H. versicolor. 3. There was a strong correlation between several climatic variables, elevation and the distribution of the gray treefrog complex. Specifically, the tetraploid species almost exclusively occupied areas of higher elevation, where climatic conditions were relatively severe (colder, drier, greater annual variation). In contrast, the diploid species was restricted to lower elevations, where climatic conditions were warmer, wetter and exhibited less annual variation. 4. Clusters of syntopic sites were associated with areas of high variation in annual temperature and precipitation during the breeding season. 5. Our data suggest that large-scale climatic conditions have played a role in the establishment of the polyploid H. versicolor in at least some portions of its range. The occurrence of the polyploid and absence of the progenitor in colder, drier and more varied environments suggests the polyploid may posses a tolerance of severe environmental conditions that is not possessed by the diploid

  19. Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period

    PubMed Central

    Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.

    2016-01-01

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change. PMID:26879640

  20. Influence of ecohydrologic feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Walsum, P. E. V.; Supit, I.

    2012-06-01

    Hydrologic climate change modelling is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. To reduce this dependency, we extended the regional hydrologic modelling framework SIMGRO to host a two-way coupling between the soil moisture model MetaSWAP and the crop growth simulation model WOFOST, accounting for ecohydrologic feedbacks in terms of radiation fraction that reaches the soil, crop coefficient, interception fraction of rainfall, interception storage capacity, and root zone depth. Except for the last, these feedbacks are dependent on the leaf area index (LAI). The influence of regional groundwater on crop growth is included via a coupling to MODFLOW. Two versions of the MetaSWAP-WOFOST coupling were set up: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous crop growth simulation, the "dynamic" model. Parameterization of the static and dynamic models ensured that for the current climate the simulated long-term averages of actual evapotranspiration are the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios and two crops: grass and potato. In the dynamic model, higher temperatures in a warm year under the current climate resulted in accelerated crop development, and in the case of potato a shorter growing season, thus partly avoiding the late summer heat. The static model has a higher potential transpiration; depending on the available soil moisture, this translates to a higher actual transpiration. This difference between static and dynamic models is enlarged by climate change in combination with higher CO2 concentrations. Including the dynamic crop simulation gives for potato (and other annual arable land crops) systematically higher effects on the predicted recharge change due to climate change. Crop yields from soils with poor water retention capacities strongly depend on capillary rise if moisture supply from other sources is limited. Thus, including a crop simulation model in an integrated

  1. Changes in the extremes of the climate simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO{sub 2} doubling

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zwiers, F.W.; Kharin, V.V.

    Changes due to CO{sub 2} doubling in the extremes of the surface climate as simulated by the second-generation circulation model of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis are studied in two 20-yr equilibrium simulations. Extreme values of screen temperature, precipitation, and near-surface wind in the control climate are compared to those estimated from 17 yr of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and from some Canadian station data. The extremes of screen temperature are reasonably well reproduced in the control climate. Their changes under CO{sub 2} doubling can be connected with other physical changes such as surface albedo changes duemore » to the reduction of snow and sea ice cover as well as a decrease of soil moisture in the warmer world. The signal in the extremes of daily precipitation and near-surface wind speed due to CO{sub 2} doubling is less obvious. The precipitation extremes increase almost everywhere over the globe. The strongest change, over northwest India, is related to the intensification of the summer monsoon in this region in the warmer world. The modest reduction of wind extremes in the Tropics and middle latitudes is consistent with the reduction of the meridional temperature gradient in the 2{times}CO{sub 2} climate. The larger wind extremes occur in the areas where sea ice has retreated.« less

  2. [Impacts of climate warming on growth period and yield of rice in Northeast China during recent two decades].

    PubMed

    Hou, Wen-jia; Geng, Ting; Chen, Qun; Chen, Chang-qing

    2015-01-01

    By using rice growth period, yield and climate observation data during the recent two decades, the impact of climate warming on rice in Northeast China was investigated by mathematical statistics methods. The results indicated that in the three provinces of Northeast China, the average, maximum and minimum temperatures in rice growing season were on the. rise, and the rainfall presented a downward trend during 1989-2009. Compared to 1990s, the rice whole growth periods of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces in 2000s were prolonged 14 d, 4.5 d and 5.1 d, respectively. The increase of temperature in May, June and September could extend the rice growth period, while that in July would shorten the growth duration. The rice growth duration of registered varieties and experiment sites had a similar increasing trend in Northeast China except for the Heilongjiang Province, and the extension of registered varieties growth period was the main factor causing the prolonged growth period of rice at experiment sites. The change in daily average, minimum and maximum temperatures all could affect the rice yield in Northeast China. The increasing temperature significantly increased the rice yield in Heilongjiang Province, especially in the west region of Sanjiang Plain. Except for the south of Liaoning Province, rice yields in other regions of Northeast China were promoted by increasing temperature. Proper measures for breeding, cultivation and farming, could be adopted to fully improve the adaptation of rice to climate warming in Northeast China.

  3. Assessing simulated ecosystem processes for climate variability research at Glacier National Park, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    White, J.D.; Running, S.W.; Thornton, P.E.; Keane, R.E.; Ryan, K.C.; Fagre, D.B.; Key, C.H.

    1998-01-01

    Glacier National Park served as a test site for ecosystem analyses than involved a suite of integrated models embedded within a geographic information system. The goal of the exercise was to provide managers with maps that could illustrate probable shifts in vegetation, net primary production (NPP), and hydrologic responses associated with two selected climatic scenarios. The climatic scenarios were (a) a recent 12-yr record of weather data, and (b) a reconstituted set that sequentially introduced in repeated 3-yr intervals wetter-cooler, drier-warmer, and typical conditions. To extrapolate the implications of changes in ecosystem processes and resulting growth and distribution of vegetation and snowpack, the model incorporated geographic data. With underlying digital elevation maps, soil depth and texture, extrapolated climate, and current information on vegetation types and satellite-derived estimates of a leaf area indices, simulations were extended to envision how the park might look after 120 yr. The predictions of change included underlying processes affecting the availability of water and nitrogen. Considerable field data were acquired to compare with model predictions under current climatic conditions. In general, the integrated landscape models of ecosystem processes had good agreement with measured NPP, snowpack, and streamflow, but the exercise revealed the difficulty and necessity of averaging point measurements across landscapes to achieve comparable results with modeled values. Under the extremely variable climate scenario significant changes in vegetation composition and growth as well as hydrologic responses were predicted across the park. In particular, a general rise in both the upper and lower limits of treeline was predicted. These shifts would probably occur along with a variety of disturbances (fire, insect, and disease outbreaks) as predictions of physiological stress (water, nutrients, light) altered competitive relations and hydrologic

  4. Putting the rise of the Inca Empire within a climatic and land management context

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chepstow-Lusty, A. J.; Frogley, M. R.; Bauer, B. S.; Leng, M. J.; Boessenkool, K. P.; Carcaillet, C.; Ali, A. A.; Gioda, A.

    2009-07-01

    The rapid expansion of the Inca from the Cuzco area of highland Peru (ca. AD 1400-1532) produced the largest empire in the New World. Although this meteoric growth may in part be due to the adoption of innovative societal strategies, supported by a large labour force and a standing army, we argue that it would not have been possible without increased crop productivity, which was linked to more favourable climatic conditions. Here we present a multi-proxy, high-resolution 1200-year lake sediment record from Marcacocha, located 12 km north of Ollantaytambo, in the heartland of the Inca Empire. This record reveals a period of sustained aridity that began from AD 880, followed by increased warming from AD 1100 that lasted beyond the arrival of the Spanish in AD 1532. These increasingly warmer conditions would have allowed the Inca and their immediate predecessors the opportunity to exploit higher altitudes (post-AD 1150) by constructing agricultural terraces that employed glacial-fed irrigation, in combination with deliberate agroforestry techniques. There may be some important lessons to be learnt today from these strategies for sustainable rural development in the Andes in the light of future climate uncertainty.

  5. Empirically Derived and Simulated Sensitivity of Vegetation to Climate Across Global Gradients of Temperature and Precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quetin, G. R.; Swann, A. L. S.

    2017-12-01

    Successfully predicting the state of vegetation in a novel environment is dependent on our process level understanding of the ecosystem and its interactions with the environment. We derive a global empirical map of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate using the response of satellite-observed greenness and leaf area to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation. Our analysis provides observations of ecosystem functioning; the vegetation interactions with the physical environment, across a wide range of climates and provide a functional constraint for hypotheses engendered in process-based models. We infer mechanisms constraining ecosystem functioning by contrasting how the observed and simulated sensitivity of vegetation to climate varies across climate space. Our analysis yields empirical evidence for multiple physical and biological mediators of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate as a systematic change across climate space. Our comparison of remote sensing-based vegetation sensitivity with modeled estimates provides evidence for which physiological mechanisms - photosynthetic efficiency, respiration, water supply, atmospheric water demand, and sunlight availability - dominate the ecosystem functioning in places with different climates. Earth system models are generally successful in reproducing the broad sign and shape of ecosystem functioning across climate space. However, this general agreement breaks down in hot wet climates where models simulate less leaf area during a warmer year, while observations show a mixed response but overall more leaf area during warmer years. In addition, simulated ecosystem interaction with temperature is generally larger and changes more rapidly across a gradient of temperature than is observed. We hypothesize that the amplified interaction and change are both due to a lack of adaptation and acclimation in simulations. This discrepancy with observations suggests that simulated responses of vegetation to

  6. Nonlinear responses of white spruce growth to climate variability in interior Alaska

    Treesearch

    A.H. Lloyd; P.A. Duffy; D.H. Mann

    2013-01-01

    Ongoing warming at high latitudes is expected to lead to large changes in the structure and function of boreal forests. Our objective in this research is to determine the climatic controls over the growth of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) at the warmest driest margins of its range in interior Alaska. We then use those relationships to...

  7. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    PubMed Central

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  8. Why sustainable population growth is a key to climate change and public health equity.

    PubMed

    Howat, Peter; Stoneham, Melissa

    2011-12-01

    Australia's population could reach 42 million by 2050. This rapid population growth, if unabated, will have significant social, public health and environmental implications. On the one hand, it is a major driver of climate change and environmental degradation; on the other it is likely to be a major contributor to growing social and health issues including a decline in quality of life for many residents. Disadvantaged and vulnerable groups will be most affected. The environmental, social and health-related issues include: pressure on the limited arable land in Australia; increased volumes of industrial and domestic waste; inadequate essential services; traffic congestion; lack of affordable housing; declining mental health; increased obesity problems; and inadequate aged care services. Many of these factors are related to the aggravation of climate change and health inequities. It is critical that the Australian Government develops a sustainable population plan with stabilisation of population growth as an option. The plan needs to ensure adequate hospitals and healthcare services, education facilities, road infrastructure, sustainable transport options, water quality and quantity, utilities and other amenities that are already severely overburdened in Australian cities. There is a need for a guarantee that affordable housing will be available and priority be given to training young people and Indigenous people for employment. This paper presents evidence to support the need for the stabilisation of population growth as one of the most significant measures to control climate change as well as to improve public health equity.

  9. Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - impacts to the Pacific Coast

    Treesearch

    Amanda Schramm; Rachel Loehman

    2012-01-01

    The Pacific Coast is an area of incredible biodiversity and diverse landscapes that are subject to a range of effects as regional climates shift. Changes that have already been observed within this bioregion include warmer average temperatures, earlier runoff season, rising sea levels, coastal erosion, species migration, and a longer growing season. In the next century...

  10. Variability in winter climate and winter extremes reduces population growth of an alpine butterfly.

    PubMed

    Roland, Jens; Matter, Stephen F

    2013-01-01

    We examined the long-term, 15-year pattern of population change in a network of 21 Rocky Mountain populations of Parnassius smintheus butterflies in response to climatic variation. We found that winter values of the broadscale climate variable, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, were a strong predictor of annual population growth, much more so than were endogenous biotic factors related to population density. The relationship between PDO and population growth was nonlinear. Populations declined in years with extreme winter PDO values, when there were either extremely warm or extremely cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific relative to that in the western Pacific. Results suggest that more variable winters, and more frequent extremely cold or warm winters, will result in more frequent decline of these populations, a pattern exacerbated by the trend for increasingly variable winters seen over the past century.

  11. Landscape heterogeneity controls growth variability of alder, willow, and birch shrubs in response to observed increases in temperature and snow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tape, K. D.; Hallinger, M.; Buras, A.; Wilmking, M.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last decade, evidence has emerged for a circumarctic trend of increasing shrub cover in tundra regions. On the Alaskan tundra, repeat photography has shown spatial differences in shrub patch dynamics: since 1950, most patches expanded while some remained stable. In this study we explore the underpinnings of this landscape heterogeneity by sampling the three dominant shrubs of the Alaskan tundra--alder, willow and birch--and creating shrub ring width chronologies to determine the influence of climate variability on shrub growth. Shrubs of expanding patches of all three species grew at higher rates than shrubs of stable patches. Alder and willow shrubs in expanding patches exhibited mainly positive growth trends, while their counterparts in stable patches exhibited mainly negative growth trends. Birch shrub growth declined in expanding and stable patches. Alder and willow shrub growth rates and responses to climate were controlled more by soil characteristics than by their genus; expanding alder and willow shrubs showed significant positive correlations with spring and summer temperatures, whereas alder and willow shrubs of stable patches were negatively influenced by winter precipitation. The widely-scattered stable shrub patches sampled here are considered ';moist tussock tundra,' which covers 13.4% of the low arctic landscape. In moist tussock tundra, and presumably also wet tussock tundra, the negative influence of deeper snow on shrubs outweighed the positive influence of deeper snow on ground temperature and nutrient stocks articulated by the snow-shrub-microbe hypothesis. Thus, while shrubs of expanding patches have generally profited from warmer summers, shrubs of stable patches have suffered from increased soil moisture resulting from increased snowmelt water. These results underscore the spatial and temporal complexity in shrub-climate dynamics, which will require considerable finesse to appropriately integrate into modeling efforts.

  12. [Spatiotemporal dynamics of land cover in northern Tibetan Plateau with responses to climate change].

    PubMed

    Song, Chun-qiao; You, Song-cai; Ke, Ling-hong; Liu, Gao-huan; Zhong, Xin-ke

    2011-08-01

    By using the 2001-2008 MOMS land cover products (MCDl2Ql) and based on the modified classification scheme embodied the characteristics of land cover in northern Tibetan Plateau, the annual land cover type maps of the Plateau were drawn, with the dynamic changes of each land cover type analyzed by classification statistics, dynamic transfer matrix, and landscape pattern indices. In 2001-2008, due to the acceleration of global climate warming, the areas of glacier and snow-covered land in the Plateau decreased rapidly, and the melted snow water gathered into low-lying valley or basin, making the lake level raised and the lake area enlarged. Some permanent wetlands were formed because of partially submersed grassland. The vegetation cover did not show any evident meliorated or degraded trend. From 2001 to 2004, as the climate became warmer and wetter, the spatial distribution of desert began to shrink, and the proportions of sparse grassland and grassland increased. From 2006 to 2007, due to the warmer and drier climate, the desert bare land increased, and the sparse grassland decreased. From 2001 to 2008, both the landscape fragmentation degree and the land cover heterogeneity decreased, and the differences in the proportions of all land cover types somewhat enlarged.

  13. Soil Dissolved Organic Carbon Fluxes are Controlled by both Precipitation and Longer-Term Climate Effects on Boreal Forest Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hotchkiss, E. R.; Ziegler, S. E.; Edwards, K. A.; Bowering, K.

    2017-12-01

    Water acts as a control on the cycling of organic carbon (OC). Forest productivity responses to climate change are linked to water availability while water residence time is a major control on OC loss in aquatic ecosystems. However, controls on the export of terrestrial OC to the aquatic environment remains poorly understood. Transport of dissolved OC (DOC) through soils both vertically to deeper soil horizons and into aquatic systems is a key flux of terrestrial OC, but the climate drivers controlling OC mobilized from soils is poorly understood. We installed zero-tension lysimeters across similar balsam fir forest sites within three regions that span a MAT gradient of 5.2˚C and MAP of 1050-1500 mm. Using soil water collected over all seasons for four years we tested whether a warmer and wetter climate promotes greater DOC fluxes in ecosystems experiencing relatively high precipitation. Variability within and between years was compared to that observed across climates to test the sensitivity of this flux to shorter relative to longer-term climate effects on this flux. The warmest and wettest southern site exhibited the greatest annual DOC flux (25 to 28 g C m-2 y-1) in contrast to the most northern site (8 to 10 g C m -2 y-1). This flux represented 10% of litterfall C inputs across sites and surpassed the DOC export from associated forested headwater streams (1 to 16 g C m-2 y-1) suggesting terrestrial to aquatic interface processing. Historical climate and increased soil C inputs explain the greater DOC flux in the southern region. Even in years with comparable annual precipitation among regions the DOC flux differed by climate region. Furthermore, neither quantity nor form of precipitation could explain inter-annual differences in DOC flux within each region. Region specific relationships between precipitation and soil water flux instead suggest historical climate effects may impact soil water transport efficiency thereby controlling the regional variation in

  14. Fungi in a changing world: growth rates will be elevated, but spore production may decrease in future climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Damialis, Athanasios; Mohammad, Aqilah B.; Halley, John M.; Gange, Alan C.

    2015-09-01

    Very little is known about the impact of climate change on fungi and especially on spore production. Fungal spores can be allergenic, thus being important for human health. The aim of this study was to investigate how climate change influences the responsive ability of fungi by simulating differing environmental regimes. Fungal species with high spore allergenic potential and atmospheric abundance were grown and experimentally examined under a variety of temperatures and different nutrient availability. Each represented the average decadal air temperature of the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s in the UK, along with an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenario for 2100. All tests were run on six fungal species: Alternaria alternata, Aspergillus niger, Botrytis cinerea, Cladosporium cladosporioides, Cladosporium oxysporum and Epicoccum purpurascens. Mycelium growth rate and spore production were examined on each single species and competitive capacity among species combinations in pairs. All fungal species grew faster at higher temperatures, and this was more pronounced for the temperature projection in 2100. Most species grew faster when there was lower nutrient availability. Exceptions were the species with the highest growth rate ( E. purpurascens) and with the highest competition capacity ( A. alternata). Most species (except for E. purpurascens) produced more spores in the richer nutrient medium but fewer as temperature increased. C. cladosporioides was an exception, exponentially increasing its spore production in the temperature of the 2100 scenario. Regarding competitive capacity, no species displayed any significant alterations within the environmental range checked. It is suggested that in future climates, fungi will display dramatic growth responses, with faster mycelium growth and lower spore production, with questions risen on relevant allergen potential.

  15. Braking effect of climate and topography on global change-induced upslope forest expansion.

    PubMed

    Alatalo, Juha M; Ferrarini, Alessandro

    2017-03-01

    Forests are expected to expand into alpine areas due to global climate change. It has recently been shown that temperature alone cannot realistically explain this process and that upslope tree advance in a warmer scenario may depend on the availability of sites with adequate geomorphic/topographic characteristics. Here, we show that, besides topography (slope and aspect), climate itself can produce a braking effect on the upslope advance of subalpine forests and that tree limit is influenced by non-linear and non-monotonic contributions of the climate variables which act upon treeline upslope advance with varying relative strengths. Our results suggest that global climate change impact on the upslope advance of subalpine forests should be interpreted in a more complex way where climate can both speed up and slow down the process depending on complex patterns of contribution from each climate and non-climate variable.

  16. Legacy effects of simulated short-term climate change on ammonia oxidisers, denitrifiers, and nitrous oxide emissions in an acid soil.

    PubMed

    Xu, Xiaoya; Liu, Xiaorui; Li, Yong; Ran, Yu; Liu, Yapeng; Zhang, Qichun; Li, Zheng; He, Yan; Xu, Jianming; Di, Hongjie

    2017-04-01

    Although the effect of simulated climate change on nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and on associated microbial communities has been reported, it is not well understood if these effects are short-lived or long-lasting. Here, we conducted a field study to determine the interactive effects of simulated warmer and drier conditions on nitrifier and denitrifier communities and N 2 O emissions in an acidic soil and the longevity of the effects. A warmer (+2.3 °C) and drier climate (-7.4% soil moisture content) was created with greenhouses. The variation of microbial population abundance and community structure of ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA), bacteria (AOB), and denitrifiers (nirK/S, nosZ) were determined using real-time PCR and high-throughput sequencing. The results showed that the simulated warmer and drier conditions under the greenhouse following urea application significantly increased N 2 O emissions. There was also a moderate legacy effect on the N 2 O emissions when the greenhouses were removed in the urea treatment, although this effect only lasted a short period of time (about 60 days). The simulated climate change conditions changed the composition of AOA with the species affiliated to marine group 1.1a-associated lineage increasing significantly. The abundance of all the functional denitrifier genes decreased significantly under the simulated climate change conditions and the legacy effect, after the removal of greenhouses, significantly increased the abundance of AOB, AOA (mainly the species affiliated to marine group 1.1a-associated lineage), and nirK and nosZ genes in the urea-treated soil. In general, the effect of the simulated climate change was short-lived, with the denitrifier communities being able to return to ambient levels after a period of adaptation to ambient conditions. Therefore, the legacy effect of simulated short-time climate change conditions on the ammonia oxidizer and denitrifier communities and N 2 O emissions were temporary and

  17. Climate warming shifts carbon allocation from stemwood to roots in calcium-depleted spruce forests

    Treesearch

    Andrei G. ​Lapenis; Gregory B. Lawrence; Alexander Heim; Chengyang Zheng; Walter Shortle

    2013-01-01

    Increased greening of northern forests, measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), has been presented as evidence that a warmer climate has increased both net primary productivity (NPP) and the carbon sink in boreal forests. However, higher production and greener canopies may accompany changes in carbon allocation that favor foliage or fine roots...

  18. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate feedback mechanisms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cess, R. D.

    1982-01-01

    As a consequence of fossil fuel burning, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased from 314 ppm in 1958, when detailed measurements of this quantity began, to a present value of 335 ppm; and it is estimated that during the next century, the CO2 concentration will double relative to its assumed preindustrial value of 290 ppm. Since CO2 is an infrared-active gas, increases in its atmospheric concentration would lead to a larger infrared opacity for the atmospheric which, by normal logic, would result in a warmer Earth. A number of modeling endeavors suggest a 2 to 4 C increase in global mean surface temperature with doubling of the CO2 concentration. But such estimates of CO2-induced warming are highly uncertain because of a lack of knowledge of climate feedback mechanisms. Interactive influences upon the solar and infrared opacities of the Earth-atmosphere system can either amplify or damp a climate-forcing mechanism such as increasing CO2. Climate feedback mechanisms discussed include climate sensitivity, cloudiness-radiation feedback, climate change predictions, and interactive atmospheric chemistry.

  19. Projected Impacts of Climate, Urbanization, Water Management, and Wetland Restoration on Waterbird Habitat in California's Central Valley.

    PubMed

    Matchett, Elliott L; Fleskes, Joseph P

    2017-01-01

    The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006-2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the "existing" landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional

  20. Assessing the Impact of Laurentide Ice-sheet Topography on Glacial Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ullman, D. J.; LeGrande, A. N.; Carlson, A. E.; Anslow, F. S.; Licciardi, J. M.

    2014-01-01

    Simulations of past climates require altered boundary conditions to account for known shifts in the Earth system. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the existence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets caused profound changes in surface topography and albedo. While ice-sheet extent is fairly well known, numerous conflicting reconstructions of ice-sheet topography suggest that precision in this boundary condition is lacking. Here we use a high-resolution and oxygen-isotopeenabled fully coupled global circulation model (GCM) (GISS ModelE2-R), along with two different reconstructions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) that provide maximum and minimum estimates of LIS elevation, to assess the range of climate variability in response to uncertainty in this boundary condition.We present this comparison at two equilibrium time slices: the LGM, when differences in ice-sheet topography are maximized, and 14 ka, when differences in maximum ice-sheet height are smaller but still exist. Overall, we find significant differences in the climate response to LIS topography, with the larger LIS resulting in enhanced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and warmer surface air temperatures, particularly over northeastern Asia and the North Pacific. These up- and downstream effects are associated with differences in the development of planetary waves in the upper atmosphere, with the larger LIS resulting in a weaker trough over northeastern Asia that leads to the warmer temperatures and decreased albedo from snow and sea-ice cover. Differences between the 14 ka simulations are similar in spatial extent but smaller in magnitude, suggesting that climate is responding primarily to the larger difference in maximum LIS elevation in the LGM simulations. These results suggest that such uncertainty in ice-sheet boundary conditions alone may significantly impact the results of paleoclimate simulations and their ability to successfully simulate past climates

  1. Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carey, Michael P.; Zimmerman, Christian E.

    2014-01-01

    Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to

  2. Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska.

    PubMed

    Carey, Michael P; Zimmerman, Christian E

    2014-05-01

    Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to

  3. Plant movements and climate warming: intraspecific variation in growth responses to nonlocal soils.

    PubMed

    De Frenne, Pieter; Coomes, David A; De Schrijver, An; Staelens, Jeroen; Alexander, Jake M; Bernhardt-Römermann, Markus; Brunet, Jörg; Chabrerie, Olivier; Chiarucci, Alessandro; den Ouden, Jan; Eckstein, R Lutz; Graae, Bente J; Gruwez, Robert; Hédl, Radim; Hermy, Martin; Kolb, Annette; Mårell, Anders; Mullender, Samantha M; Olsen, Siri L; Orczewska, Anna; Peterken, George; Petřík, Petr; Plue, Jan; Simonson, William D; Tomescu, Cezar V; Vangansbeke, Pieter; Verstraeten, Gorik; Vesterdal, Lars; Wulf, Monika; Verheyen, Kris

    2014-04-01

    Most range shift predictions focus on the dispersal phase of the colonization process. Because moving populations experience increasingly dissimilar nonclimatic environmental conditions as they track climate warming, it is also critical to test how individuals originating from contrasting thermal environments can establish in nonlocal sites. We assess the intraspecific variation in growth responses to nonlocal soils by planting a widespread grass of deciduous forests (Milium effusum) into an experimental common garden using combinations of seeds and soil sampled in 22 sites across its distributional range, and reflecting movement scenarios of up to 1600 km. Furthermore, to determine temperature and forest-structural effects, the plants and soils were experimentally warmed and shaded. We found significantly positive effects of the difference between the temperature of the sites of seed and soil collection on growth and seedling emergence rates. Migrant plants might thus encounter increasingly favourable soil conditions while tracking the isotherms towards currently 'colder' soils. These effects persisted under experimental warming. Rising temperatures and light availability generally enhanced plant performance. Our results suggest that abiotic and biotic soil characteristics can shape climate change-driven plant movements by affecting growth of nonlocal migrants, a mechanism which should be integrated into predictions of future range shifts. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

  4. Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future.

    PubMed

    Willis, K J; Bennett, K D; Burrough, S L; Macias-Fauria, M; Tovar, C

    2013-01-01

    Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400-500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records.

  5. Climate change is affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species.

    PubMed

    Inouye, D W; Barr, B; Armitage, K B; Inouye, B D

    2000-02-15

    Calendar date of the beginning of the growing season at high altitude in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is variable but has not changed significantly over the past 25 years. This result differs from growing evidence from low altitudes that climate change is resulting in a longer growing season, earlier migrations, and earlier reproduction in a variety of taxa. At our study site, the beginning of the growing season is controlled by melting of the previous winter's snowpack. Despite a trend for warmer spring temperatures the average date of snowmelt has not changed, perhaps because of the trend for increased winter precipitation. This disjunction between phenology at low and high altitudes may create problems for species, such as many birds, that migrate over altitudinal gradients. We present data indicating that this already may be true for American robins, which are arriving 14 days earlier than they did in 1981; the interval between arrival date and the first date of bare ground has grown by 18 days. We also report evidence for an effect of climate change on hibernation behavior; yellow-bellied marmots are emerging 38 days earlier than 23 years ago, apparently in response to warmer spring air temperatures. Migrants and hibernators may experience problems as a consequence of these changes in phenology, which may be exacerbated if climate models are correct in their predictions of increased winter snowfall in our study area. The trends we report for earlier formation of permanent snowpack and for a longer period of snow cover also have implications for hibernating species.

  6. Climate change is affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species

    PubMed Central

    Inouye, David W.; Barr, Billy; Armitage, Kenneth B.; Inouye, Brian D.

    2000-01-01

    Calendar date of the beginning of the growing season at high altitude in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is variable but has not changed significantly over the past 25 years. This result differs from growing evidence from low altitudes that climate change is resulting in a longer growing season, earlier migrations, and earlier reproduction in a variety of taxa. At our study site, the beginning of the growing season is controlled by melting of the previous winter's snowpack. Despite a trend for warmer spring temperatures the average date of snowmelt has not changed, perhaps because of the trend for increased winter precipitation. This disjunction between phenology at low and high altitudes may create problems for species, such as many birds, that migrate over altitudinal gradients. We present data indicating that this already may be true for American robins, which are arriving 14 days earlier than they did in 1981; the interval between arrival date and the first date of bare ground has grown by 18 days. We also report evidence for an effect of climate change on hibernation behavior; yellow-bellied marmots are emerging 38 days earlier than 23 years ago, apparently in response to warmer spring air temperatures. Migrants and hibernators may experience problems as a consequence of these changes in phenology, which may be exacerbated if climate models are correct in their predictions of increased winter snowfall in our study area. The trends we report for earlier formation of permanent snowpack and for a longer period of snow cover also have implications for hibernating species. PMID:10677510

  7. Differences in Temperature Changes in Premature Infants During Invasive Procedures in Incubators and Radiant Warmers.

    PubMed

    Handhayanti, Ludwy; Rustina, Yeni; Budiati, Tri

    Premature infants tend to lose heat quickly. This loss can be aggravated when they have received an invasive procedure involving a venous puncture. This research uses crossover design by conducting 2 intervention tests to compare 2 different treatments on the same sample. This research involved 2 groups with 18 premature infants in each. The process of data analysis used a statistical independent t test. Interventions conducted in an open incubator showed a p value of .001 which statistically related to heat loss in premature infants. In contrast, the radiant warmer p value of .001 statistically referred to a different range of heat gain before and after the venous puncture was given. The radiant warmer saved the premature infant from hypothermia during the invasive procedure. However, it is inadvisable for routine care of newborn infants since it can increase insensible water loss.

  8. Building Climate Resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: A Framework for Action

    PubMed Central

    Simane, Belay; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Mesfin, Desalegn

    2012-01-01

    Ethiopia has become warmer over the past century and human induced climate change will bring further warming over the next century at unprecedented rates. On the average, climate models show a tendency for higher mean annual rainfall and for wetter conditions, in particular during October, November and December, but there is much uncertainty about the future amount, distribution, timing and intensity of rainfall. Ethiopia’s low level of economic development, combined with its heavy dependence on agriculture and high population growth rate make the country particularly susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change. Nearly 90% of Ethiopia’s population lives in the Highlands, which include the critical Blue Nile (Abay) Highlands—a region that holds special importance due to its role in domestic agricultural production and international water resources. A five year study of climate vulnerability and adaptation strategies in communities of Choke Mountain, located in the center of the Abay Highlands, has informed a proposed framework for enhancing climate resilience in communities across the region. The framework is motivated by the critical need to enhance capacity to cope with climate change and, subsequently, to advance a carbon neutral and climate resilient economy in Ethiopia. The implicit hypothesis in applying a research framework for this effort is that science-based information, generated through improved understanding of impacts and vulnerabilities of local communities, can contribute to enhanced resilience strategies. We view adaptation to climate change in a wider context of changes, including, among others, market conditions, the political-institutional framework, and population dynamics. From a livelihood perspective, culture, historical settings, the diversity of income generation strategies, knowledge, and education are important factors that contribute to adaptive capacities. This paper reviews key findings of the Choke Mountain study

  9. A latitudinal gradient in tree growth response to climate warming in the Siberian taiga

    Treesearch

    Andrea H. Lloyd; Andrew G. Bunn; Logan Berner

    2010-01-01

    We investigated the climate response of three Siberian taiga species, Larix cajanderi, Picea obovata, and Pinus sylvestris, across a latitudinal gradient in central Siberia. We hypothesized that warming is more frequently associated with increased growth for evergreen conifers (P. obovata and P....

  10. Long-term forest resilience to climate change indicated by mortality, regeneration, and growth in semiarid southern Siberia.

    PubMed

    Xu, Chongyang; Liu, Hongyan; Anenkhonov, Oleg A; Korolyuk, Andrey Yu; Sandanov, Denis V; Balsanova, Larisa D; Naidanov, Bulat B; Wu, Xiuchen

    2017-06-01

    Several studies have documented that regional climate warming and the resulting increase in drought stress have triggered increased tree mortality in semiarid forests with unavoidable impacts on regional and global carbon sequestration. Although climate warming is projected to continue into the future, studies examining long-term resilience of semiarid forests against climate change are limited. In this study, long-term forest resilience was defined as the capacity of forest recruitment to compensate for losses from mortality. We observed an obvious change in long-term forest resilience along a local aridity gradient by reconstructing tree growth trend and disturbance history and investigating postdisturbance regeneration in semiarid forests in southern Siberia. In our study, with increased severity of local aridity, forests became vulnerable to drought stress, and regeneration first accelerated and then ceased. Radial growth of trees during 1900-2012 was also relatively stable on the moderately arid site. Furthermore, we found that smaller forest patches always have relatively weaker resilience under the same climatic conditions. Our results imply a relatively higher resilience in arid timberline forest patches than in continuous forests; however, further climate warming and increased drought could possibly cause the disappearance of small forest patches around the arid tree line. This study sheds light on climate change adaptation and provides insight into managing vulnerable semiarid forests. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Climate change, renewable energy and population impact on future energy demand for Burkina Faso build environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouedraogo, B. I.

    This research addresses the dual challenge faced by Burkina Faso engineers to design sustainable low-energy cost public buildings and domestic dwellings while still providing the required thermal comfort under warmer temperature conditions caused by climate change. It was found base don climate change SRES scenario A2 that predicted mean temperature in Burkina Faso will increase by 2oC between 2010 and 2050. Therefore, in order to maintain a thermally comfortable 25oC inside public buildings, the projected annual energy consumption for cooling load will increase by 15%, 36% and 100% respectively for the period between 2020 to 2039, 2040 to 2059 and 2070 to 2089 when compared to the control case. It has also been found that a 1% increase in population growth will result in a 1.38% and 2.03% increase in carbon emission from primary energy consumption and future electricity consumption respectively. Furthermore, this research has investigated possible solutions for adaptation to the severe climate change and population growth impact on energy demand in Burkina Faso. Shading devices could potentially reduce the cooling load by up to 40%. Computer simulation programming of building energy consumption and a field study has shown that adobe houses have the potential of significantly reducing energy demand for cooling and offer a formidable method for climate change adaptation. Based on the Net Present Cost, hybrid photovoltaic (PV) and Diesel generator energy production configuration is the most cost effective local electricity supply system, for areas without electricity at present, with a payback time of 8 years when compared to diesel generator stand-alone configuration. It is therefore a viable solution to increase electricity access to the majority of the population.

  12. Disturbance legacies and climate jointly drive tree growth and mortality in an intensively studied boreal forest

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Rocha, Adrian; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-01

    How will regional growth and mortality change with even relatively small climate shifts, even independent of catastrophic disturbances? This question is particularly acute for the North American boreal forest, which is carbon-dense and subject The goals of this study were to combine dendrochronological sampling, inventory records, and machine-learning algorithms to understand how tree growth and death have changed at one highly studied site (Northern Old Black Spruce, NOBS) in the central Canadian boreal forest. Over the 1999-2012 inventory period, mean DBH increased even as stand density and basal area declined significantly from 41.3 to 37.5 m2 ha-1. Tree mortality averagedmore » 1.4±0.6% yr-1, with most mortality occurring in medium-sized trees. A combined tree ring chronology constructed from 2001, 2004, and 2012 sampling showed several periods of extreme growth depression, with increased mortality lagging depressed growth by ~5 years. Minimum and maximum air temperatures exerted a negative influence on tree growth, while precipitation and climate moisture index had a positive effect; both current- and previous-year data exerted significant effects. Models based on these variables explained 23-44% of the ring-width variability. There have been at least one, and probably two, significant recruitment episodes since stand initiation, and we infer that past climate extremes led to significant NOBS mortality still visible in the current forest structure. These results imply that a combination of successional and demographic processes, along with mortality driven by abiotic factors, continue to affect the stand, with significant implications for our understanding of previous work at NOBS and the sustainable management of regional forests.« less

  13. Climate-Induced Boreal Forest Change: Predictions versus Current Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soja, Amber J.; Tchebakova, Nadezda M.; French, Nancy H. F.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Shugart, Herman H.; Stocks, Brian J.; Sukhinin, Anatoly I.; Parfenova, E. I.; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.

    2007-01-01

    For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, five of the last seven years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

  14. [Difference in responses of major tree species growth to climate in the Miyaluo Mountains, western Sichuan, China].

    PubMed

    Guo, Ming-ming; Zhang, Yuan-dong; Wang, Xiao-chun; Liu, Shi-rong

    2015-08-01

    To explore the responses of different tree species growth to climate change in the semi-humid region of the eastern Tibetan Plateau, we investigated climate-growth relationships of Tsuga chinensis, Abies faxoniana, Picea purpurea at an altitude of 3000 m (low altitude) and A. faxoniana and Larix mastersiana at an altitude of 4000 m (high altitude) using tree ring-width chronologies (total of 182 cores) developed from Miyaluo, western Sichuan, China. Five residual chronologies were developed from the cross-dated ring width series using the program ARSTAN, and the relationships between monthly climate variables and tree-ring index were analyzed. Results showed that the chronologies of trees at low altitudes were negatively correlated with air temperature but positively with precipitation in April and May. This indicated that drought stress limited tree growth at low altitude, but different tree species showed significant variations. T. chinensis was most severely affected by drought stress, followed by A. faxoniana and P. purpurea. Trees at high altitude were mainly affected by growing season temperature. Tree-ring index of A. faxoniana was positively correlated with monthly minimum temperature in February and July of the current year and monthly maximum temperature in October of the previous year. Radial growth of L. mastersiana was positively correlated with monthly maximum temperature in May, and negatively with monthly mean temperature in February and monthly minimum temperature in March. In recent decadal years, the climate in northeast Tibetan Plateau had a warming and drying trend. If this trend continues, we could deduce that P. purpurea should grow faster than T. chinensis and A. faxoniana at low altitudes, while A. faxoniana would benefit more from global warming at high altitudes.

  15. Winter Precipitation Efficiency of Mountain Ranges in the Colorado Rockies Under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eidhammer, Trude; Grubišić, Vanda; Rasmussen, Roy; Ikdea, Kyoko

    2018-03-01

    Orographic precipitation depends on the environmental conditions and the barrier shape. In this study we examine the sensitivity of the precipitation efficiency (i.e., drying ratio (DR)), defined as the ratio of precipitation to incoming water flux, to mountain shape, temperature, stability, and horizontal velocity of the incoming air mass. Furthermore, we explore how the DR of Colorado mountain ranges might change under warmer and moister conditions in the future. For given environmental conditions, we find the DR to be primarily dependent on the upwind slope for mountain ranges wider than about 70 km and on both the slope and width for narrower ranges. Temperature is found to exert an influence on the DR for all Colorado mountain ranges, with DR decreasing with increasing temperature, under both the current and future climate conditions. The decrease of DR with temperature under warmer climate was found to be stronger for wider mountains than the narrower ones. We attribute this asymmetry to the sensitivity of DR to reduced horizontal velocity under warmer conditions. Specifically, while DR for wider mountains shows no sensitivity to changes in horizontal velocity, the DR for narrow ranges increases as the horizontal velocity decreases and more time is provided for precipitation to form. Thus, for narrower ranges, the horizontal velocity appears to offset the temperature effect slightly. The percentagewise decrease of DR for all examined mountain ranges is about 4%K-1. In comparison, the increase in precipitation is about 6%K-1 while the vapor flux increase is about 9%K-1.

  16. Does warmer China land attract more super typhoons?

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Xiangde; Peng, Shiqiu; Yang, Xiangjing; Xu, Hongxiong; Tong, Daniel Q.; Wang, Dongxiao; Guo, Yudi; Chan, Johnny C. L.; Chen, Lianshou; Yu, Wei; Li, Yineng; Lai, Zhijuan; Zhang, Shengjun

    2013-01-01

    Accurate prediction of where and when typhoons (or named hurricanes which form over the North Atlantic Ocean) will make landfall is critical to protecting human lives and properties. Although the traditional method of typhoon track prediction based on the steering flow theory has been proven to be an effective way in most situations, it slipped up in some cases. Our analysis of the long-term Chinese typhoon records reveals that typhoons, especially super typhoons (those with maximum sustained surface winds of greater than 51 ms−1), have a trend to make landfalls toward warmer land in China over the past 50 years (1960–2009). Numerical sensitivity experiments using an advanced atmospheric model further confirm this finding. Our finding suggests an alternative approach to predict the landfall tracks of the most devastating typhoons in the southeastern China. PMID:23519311

  17. Diverging climate trends in Mongolian taiga forests influence growth and regeneration of Larix sibirica

    PubMed Central

    Dulamsuren, Choimaa; Khishigjargal, Mookhor; Leuschner, Hanns Hubert; Leuschner, Christoph

    2010-01-01

    Central and semiarid north-eastern Asia was subject to twentieth century warming far above the global average. Since forests of this region occur at their drought limit, they are particularly vulnerable to climate change. We studied the regional variations of temperature and precipitation trends and their effects on tree growth and forest regeneration in Mongolia. Tree-ring series from more than 2,300 trees of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica) collected in four regions of Mongolia’s forest zone were analyzed and related to available weather data. Climate trends underlie a remarkable regional variation leading to contrasting responses of tree growth in taiga forests even within the same mountain system. Within a distance of a few hundred kilometers (140–490 km), areas with recently reduced growth and regeneration of larch alternated with regions where these parameters remained constant or even increased. Reduced productivity could be correlated with increasing summer temperatures and decreasing precipitation; improved growth conditions were found at increasing precipitation, but constant summer temperatures. An effect of increasing winter temperatures on tree-ring width or forest regeneration was not detectable. Since declines of productivity and regeneration are more widespread in the Mongolian taiga than the opposite trend, a net loss of forests is likely to occur in the future, as strong increases in temperature and regionally differing changes in precipitation are predicted for the twenty-first century. PMID:20571829

  18. Diverging climate trends in Mongolian taiga forests influence growth and regeneration of Larix sibirica.

    PubMed

    Dulamsuren, Choimaa; Hauck, Markus; Khishigjargal, Mookhor; Leuschner, Hanns Hubert; Leuschner, Christoph

    2010-08-01

    Central and semiarid north-eastern Asia was subject to twentieth century warming far above the global average. Since forests of this region occur at their drought limit, they are particularly vulnerable to climate change. We studied the regional variations of temperature and precipitation trends and their effects on tree growth and forest regeneration in Mongolia. Tree-ring series from more than 2,300 trees of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica) collected in four regions of Mongolia's forest zone were analyzed and related to available weather data. Climate trends underlie a remarkable regional variation leading to contrasting responses of tree growth in taiga forests even within the same mountain system. Within a distance of a few hundred kilometers (140-490 km), areas with recently reduced growth and regeneration of larch alternated with regions where these parameters remained constant or even increased. Reduced productivity could be correlated with increasing summer temperatures and decreasing precipitation; improved growth conditions were found at increasing precipitation, but constant summer temperatures. An effect of increasing winter temperatures on tree-ring width or forest regeneration was not detectable. Since declines of productivity and regeneration are more widespread in the Mongolian taiga than the opposite trend, a net loss of forests is likely to occur in the future, as strong increases in temperature and regionally differing changes in precipitation are predicted for the twenty-first century.

  19. Changing climate shifts timing of European floods.

    PubMed

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A P; Merz, Bruno; Arheimer, Berit; Aronica, Giuseppe T; Bilibashi, Ardian; Bonacci, Ognjen; Borga, Marco; Čanjevac, Ivan; Castellarin, Attilio; Chirico, Giovanni B; Claps, Pierluigi; Fiala, Károly; Frolova, Natalia; Gorbachova, Liudmyla; Gül, Ali; Hannaford, Jamie; Harrigan, Shaun; Kireeva, Maria; Kiss, Andrea; Kjeldsen, Thomas R; Kohnová, Silvia; Koskela, Jarkko J; Ledvinka, Ondrej; Macdonald, Neil; Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria; Mediero, Luis; Merz, Ralf; Molnar, Peter; Montanari, Alberto; Murphy, Conor; Osuch, Marzena; Ovcharuk, Valeryia; Radevski, Ivan; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José L; Sauquet, Eric; Šraj, Mojca; Szolgay, Jan; Viglione, Alberto; Volpi, Elena; Wilson, Donna; Zaimi, Klodian; Živković, Nenad

    2017-08-11

    A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

  20. Climatic controls of aboveground net primary production in semi-arid grasslands along a latitudinal gradient portend low sensitivity to warming

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Although climate models forecast warmer temperatures with a high degree of certainty, precipitation is the primary driver of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in most grasslands. In contrast, variations in temperature seldom are related to patterns of ANPP. Thus forecasting responses to wa...