Forest phenology and a warmer climate - Growing season extension in relation to climatic provenance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gunderson, Carla A; Edwards, Nelson T; Walker, Ashley V

2012-01-01

Predicting forest responses to warming climates relies on assumptions about niche and temperature sensitivity that remain largely untested. Observational studies have related current and historical temperatures to phenological shifts, but experimental evidence is sparse, particularly for autumn responses. A five-year field experiment exposed four deciduous forest species from contrasting climates (Liquidambar styraciflua, Quercus rubra, Populus grandidentata, and Betula alleghaniensis) to air temperatures 2 and 4 C above ambient controls. Impacts of year-round warming on bud burst (BB), senescence and abscission were evaluated in relation to thermal provenance. Leaves emerged earlier in all species, by an average of 6-9 days atmore » +2 and +4 C. Magnitude of advance varied with species and year, but was larger for the first 2 C increment than the second. The effect of warming increased with early BB, favoring Liquidambar, from the warmest climate, but even BB in northern species advanced, despite temperatures well beyond those of the realized niche. Treatment differences in BB were poorly explained by temperature sums, which increased with treatment. In autumn, chlorophyll was retained an average of 4 and 7 days longer in +2 and +4 C treatments, and abscission delayed by 8 and 13 days. Species differences in autumn responses were marginally significant. Growing seasons in the warmer atmospheres were 6 - 28 days longer, with the least impact in Quercus. Results are compared with a 16-year record of canopy onset and offset in a nearby upland deciduous forest, where BB showed similar responsiveness to spring temperatures (2 - 4 days C-1). Offset dates in the stand tracked August-September temperatures, except when late summer drought caused premature senescence. The common garden-like experimental approach provides evidence that warming alone extends the growing season, at both ends, even if stand-level impacts are complicated by other environmental factors.« less

Potential Costs of Acclimatization to a Warmer Climate: Growth of a Reef Coral with Heat Tolerant vs. Sensitive Symbiont Types

PubMed Central

Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray

2010-01-01

One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change. PMID:20454653

Potential costs of acclimatization to a warmer climate: growth of a reef coral with heat tolerant vs. sensitive symbiont types.

PubMed

Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray

2010-05-03

One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change.

More Intense Mega Heat Waves in the Warmer World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, G.; Robinson, D. A.

2017-12-01

In this study, changes in the occurrences of heat waves on the globe since the mid- 20th century and the synoptic characteristics of mega heat waves at regional scales in the warmer climate are examined. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis surface data show that there have been no obvious linear changes in the heat wave frequencies at the continental scales since the mid-20th century, but amplified interdecadal variations led to unprecedented intense heat waves in the recent decades at the regional scales. Such mega heat waves have been more frequently observed in the poleward subtropical climate belts as well as in the interior region of continents. According to the analyses of upper tropospheric data, the occurrences of more intense mega heat waves since the late 20th century may be associated with the expansion of subtropical high pressures. These results suggest that populous cities near the subtropical climate zones should provide proactive mega heat wave warning systems for residents due to their vulnerability to the sudden attack of human lives harvest by mega heat waves in the warmer 21st century.

Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes

DOE PAGES

Walsh, Kevin J. E.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; ...

2015-06-01

While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results frommore » other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as midtropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased compared with experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased. Experiments where only carbon dioxide is increased are more likely to demonstrate a decrease in tropical cyclone numbers, similar to the decreases simulated by many climate models for a future, warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Lastly, further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.« less

Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walsh, Kevin J. E.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.

While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results frommore » other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as midtropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased compared with experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased. Experiments where only carbon dioxide is increased are more likely to demonstrate a decrease in tropical cyclone numbers, similar to the decreases simulated by many climate models for a future, warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Lastly, further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.« less

Climate change. Climate in Medieval time.

PubMed

Bradley, Raymond S; Hughes, Malcolm K; Diaz, Henry F

2003-10-17

Many papers have referred to a "Medieval Warm Period." But how well defined is climate in this period, and was it as warm as or warmer than it is today? In their Perspective, Bradley et al. review the evidence and conclude that although the High Medieval (1100 to 1200 A.D.) was warmer than subsequent centuries, it was not warmer than the late 20th century. Moreover, the warmest Medieval temperatures were not synchronous around the globe. Large changes in precipitation patterns are a particular characteristic of "High Medieval" time. The underlying mechanisms for such changes must be elucidated further to inform the ongoing debate on natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.

The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goodsman, Devin W.; Grosklos, Guenchik; Aukema, Brian H.

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km 2, that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountainmore » pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources.« less

The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition.

PubMed

Goodsman, Devin W; Grosklos, Guenchik; Aukema, Brian H; Whitehouse, Caroline; Bleiker, Katherine P; McDowell, Nate G; Middleton, Richard S; Xu, Chonggang

2018-05-29

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km 2 , that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition

DOE PAGES

Goodsman, Devin W.; Grosklos, Guenchik; Aukema, Brian H.; ...

2018-05-29

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km 2, that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountainmore » pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources.« less

The Golden Canopies (Infant Radiant Warmer)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

The cradle warmer is based on technology in heated transparent materials developed by Sierracin Corporation, Sylmar, California he original application was in heated faceplates for the pressure suit heated faceplates worn by pilots of an Air Force/NASA reconnaissance and weather research plane. Later, Sierracin advanced the technology for other applications, among them the cockpit windows of the NASA X-15 supersonic research vehicle and the helmet faceplates of Apollo astronauts. Adapting the technology to hospital needs, Sierracin teamed with Cavitron Corporation, Anaheim, California, which produces the cradle warmer and two other systems employing Sierracin's electrically-heated transparencies. Working to combat the infant mortality rate, hospitals are continually upgrading delivery room and nursery care techniques. Many have special procedures and equipment to protect infants during the "period of apprehension," the critical six to 12 hours after delivery. One such item of equipment is an aerospace spinoff called the Infant Radiant Warmer, a "golden canopy" which provides uniform, controlled warmth to the infant's cradle. Warmth is vitally important to all newborns, particularly premature babies; they lose heat more rapidly than adults because they have greater surface area in comparison with body mass.

Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei

2018-05-01

The widely used design storms in urban drainage networks has different drawbacks. One of them is that the shape of the rainfall temporal pattern is fixed regardless of climate change. However, previous studies have shown that the temporal pattern may scale with temperature due to climate change, which consequently affects peak flow. Thus, in addition to the scaling of the rainfall volume, the scaling relationship for the rainfall temporal pattern with temperature needs to be investigated by deriving the scaling values for each fraction within storm events, which is lacking in many parts of the world including the UK. Therefore, this study analysed rainfall data from 28 gauges close to the study area with a 15-min resolution as well as the daily temperature data. It was found that, at warmer temperatures, the rainfall temporal pattern becomes less uniform, with more intensive peak rainfall during higher intensive times and weaker rainfall during less intensive times. This is the case for storms with and without seasonal separations. In addition, the scaling values for both the rainfall volume and the rainfall fractions (i.e. each segment of rainfall temporal pattern) for the summer season were found to be higher than the corresponding results for the winter season. Applying the derived scaling values for the temporal pattern of the summer season in a hydrodynamic sewer network model produced high percentage change of peak flow between the current and future climate. This study on the scaling of rainfall fractions is the first in the UK, and its findings are of importance to modellers and designers of sewer systems because it can provide more robust scenarios for flooding mitigation in urban areas.

21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

Warmer and drier conditions and nitrogen fertilizer application altered methanotroph abundance and methane emissions in a vegetable soil.

PubMed

Ran, Yu; Xie, Jianli; Xu, Xiaoya; Li, Yong; Liu, Yapeng; Zhang, Qichun; Li, Zheng; Xu, Jianming; Di, Hongjie

2017-01-01

Methane (CH 4 ) is a potent greenhouse gas, and soil can both be a source and sink for atmospheric CH 4 . It is not clear how future climate change may affect soil CH 4 emissions and related microbial communities. The aim of this study was to determine the interactive effects of a simulated warmer and drier climate scenarios and the application of different nitrogen (N) sources (urea and manure) on CH 4 emissions and related microbial community abundance in a vegetable soil. Greenhouses were used to control simulated climate conditions which gave 2.99 °C warmer and 6.2% lower water content conditions. The field experiment was divided into two phases. At the beginning of phase II, half of the greenhouses were removed to study possible legacy effects of the simulated warmer and drier conditions. The responses in methanogen and methanotroph abundance to a simulated climate change scenario were determined using real-time PCR. The results showed that the simulated warmer and drier conditions in the greenhouses significantly decreased CH 4 emissions largely due to the lower soil moisture content. For the same reason, CH 4 emissions of treatments in phase I were much lower than the same treatments in phase II. The abundance of methanotrophs showed a more significant response than methanogens to the simulated climate change scenario, increasing under simulated drier conditions. Methanogenic community abundance remained low, except where manure was applied which provided a source of organic C that stimulated methanogen growth. Soil moisture content was a major driver for methanotroph abundance and strongly affected CH 4 emissions. The application of N source decreased CH 4 emissions probably because of increased methanotrophic activity. CH 4 emissions were positively correlated to methanogenic abundance and negatively correlated to methanotrophic abundance. These results demonstrate that projected future climate change conditions can have a feedback impact on CH 4

Food Safety for Warmer Weather

MedlinePlus

... Fight Off Food Poisoning Food Safety for Warmer Weather En español Send us your comments In warm-weather months, who doesn’t love to get outside ... to keep foods safe to eat during warmer weather. If you’re eating or preparing foods outside, ...

Work Context Interactions, Work Climate and Turnover.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-10-01

AD-A133 893 WORK CONTEXT INTERACTIONS WORK CLIMATE AND TURNOVER(U) 1/f MICHIGAN STATE UNIV tAST LANSING B SCHNEIDER OCT 83 RR-83-2 NOSOTA-79-C-0781...CATALOG NUMBER -) L SIL ad utte. TYPE OF REPORT 6 PERIOD COVERED Work Context Interactions, Work Climate and FnlRpr Turnover: Final Report...reverse aide If necesaranmd Identify by block number) Work climate turnover organizational climate interactional psychology realistic job preview job

Tropical cyclones in a stabilized 1.5 and 2 degree warmer world.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, M. F.; Stone, D. A.; Loring, B.; Krishnan, H.

2017-12-01

We present an ensemble of very high resolution global climate model simulations of a stabilized 1.5oC and 2oC warmer climate as envisioned by the Paris COP21 agreement. The resolution of this global climate model (25km) permits simulated tropical cyclones up to Category Five on the Saffir-Simpson scale Projected changes in tropical cyclones are significant. Tropical cyclones in the two stabilization scenarios are less frequent but more intense than in simulations of the present. Output data from these simulations is freely available to all interested parties and should prove a useful resource to those interested in studying the impacts of stabilized global warming.

A 2 °C warmer world is not safe for ecosystem services in the European Alps.

PubMed

Elkin, Ché; Gutiérrez, Alvaro G; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Manusch, Corina; Temperli, Christian; Rasche, Livia; Bugmann, Harald

2013-06-01

Limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2 °C is the objective of international efforts aimed at avoiding dangerous climate impacts. However, the regional response of terrestrial ecosystems and the services that they provide under such a scenario are largely unknown. We focus on mountain forests in the European Alps and evaluate how a range of ecosystem services (ES) are projected to be impacted in a 2 °C warmer world, using four novel regional climate scenarios. We employ three complementary forest models to assess a wide range of ES in two climatically contrasting case study regions. Within each climate scenario we evaluate if and when ES will deviate beyond status quo boundaries that are based on current system variability. Our results suggest that the sensitivity of mountain forest ES to a 2 °C warmer world depends heavily on the current climatic conditions of a region, the strong elevation gradients within a region, and the specific ES in question. Our simulations project that large negative impacts will occur at low and intermediate elevations in initially warm-dry regions, where relatively small climatic shifts result in negative drought-related impacts on forest ES. In contrast, at higher elevations, and in regions that are initially cool-wet, forest ES will be comparatively resistant to a 2 °C warmer world. We also found considerable variation in the vulnerability of forest ES to climate change, with some services such as protection against rockfall and avalanches being sensitive to 2 °C global climate change, but other services such as carbon storage being reasonably resistant. Although our results indicate a heterogeneous response of mountain forest ES to climate change, the projected substantial reduction of some forest ES in dry regions suggests that a 2 °C increase in global mean temperature cannot be seen as a universally 'safe' boundary for the maintenance of mountain forest ES. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Portable Cooler/Warmers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

Early in the space program, NASA recognized the need to replace bulky coils, compressers, and motors for refrigeration purposes by looking at existing thermoelectric technology. This effort resulted in the development of miniaturized thermoelectric components and packaging to accommodate tight confines of spacecraft. Koolatron's portable electronic refrigerators incorporate this NASA technology. Each of the cooler/warmers employs one or two miniaturized thermoelectric modules. Although each module is only the size of a book of matches, it delivers the cooling power of a 10-pound block of ice. In some models, the cooler can be converted to a warmer. There are no moving parts. The Koolatrons can be plugged into auto cigarette lighters, recreational vehicles, boats or motel outlets.

Carbon assimilation and transfer through kelp forests in the NE Atlantic is diminished under a warmer ocean climate.

PubMed

Pessarrodona, Albert; Moore, Pippa J; Sayer, Martin D J; Smale, Dan A

2018-06-03

Global climate change is affecting carbon cycling by driving changes in primary productivity and rates of carbon fixation, release and storage within Earth's vegetated systems. There is, however, limited understanding of how carbon flow between donor and recipient habitats will respond to climatic changes. Macroalgal-dominated habitats, such as kelp forests, are gaining recognition as important carbon donors within coastal carbon cycles, yet rates of carbon assimilation and transfer through these habitats are poorly resolved. Here, we investigated the likely impacts of ocean warming on coastal carbon cycling by quantifying rates of carbon assimilation and transfer in Laminaria hyperborea kelp forests-one of the most extensive coastal vegetated habitat types in the NE Atlantic-along a latitudinal temperature gradient. Kelp forests within warm climatic regimes assimilated, on average, more than three times less carbon and donated less than half the amount of particulate carbon compared to those from cold regimes. These patterns were not related to variability in other environmental parameters. Across their wider geographical distribution, plants exhibited reduced sizes toward their warm-water equatorward range edge, further suggesting that carbon flow is reduced under warmer climates. Overall, we estimated that Laminaria hyperborea forests stored ~11.49 Tg C in living biomass and released particulate carbon at a rate of ~5.71 Tg C year -1 . This estimated flow of carbon was markedly higher than reported values for most other marine and terrestrial vegetated habitat types in Europe. Together, our observations suggest that continued warming will diminish the amount of carbon that is assimilated and transported through temperate kelp forests in NE Atlantic, with potential consequences for the coastal carbon cycle. Our findings underline the need to consider climate-driven changes in the capacity of ecosystems to fix and donate carbon when assessing the impacts of

The Science of Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oppenheimer, Michael; Anttila-Hughes, Jesse K.

2016-01-01

Michael Oppenheimer and Jesse Anttila-Hughes begin with a primer on how the greenhouse effect works, how we know that Earth is rapidly getting warmer, and how we know that the recent warming is caused by human activity. They explain the sources of scientific knowledge about climate change as well as the basis for the models scientists use to…

Baldcypress swamp management and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, Beth A.

2006-01-01

In the future, climates may become warmer and drier in the southeastern United States; as a result, the range of baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) swamps may shrink. Managers of baldcypress swamps at the southern edge of the range may face special challenges in attempting to preserve these swamp habitats in the future if climates become warmer and drier.

Short-term acclimation to warmer temperatures accelerates leaf carbon exchange processes across plant types.

PubMed

Smith, Nicholas G; Dukes, Jeffrey S

2017-11-01

While temperature responses of photosynthesis and plant respiration are known to acclimate over time in many species, few studies have been designed to directly compare process-level differences in acclimation capacity among plant types. We assessed short-term (7 day) temperature acclimation of the maximum rate of Rubisco carboxylation (V cmax ), the maximum rate of electron transport (J max ), the maximum rate of phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase carboxylation (V pmax ), and foliar dark respiration (R d ) in 22 plant species that varied in lifespan (annual and perennial), photosynthetic pathway (C 3 and C 4 ), and climate of origin (tropical and nontropical) grown under fertilized, well-watered conditions. In general, acclimation to warmer temperatures increased the rate of each process. The relative increase in different photosynthetic processes varied by plant type, with C 3 species tending to preferentially accelerate CO 2 -limited photosynthetic processes and respiration and C 4 species tending to preferentially accelerate light-limited photosynthetic processes under warmer conditions. R d acclimation to warmer temperatures caused a reduction in temperature sensitivity that resulted in slower rates at high leaf temperatures. R d acclimation was similar across plant types. These results suggest that temperature acclimation of the biochemical processes that underlie plant carbon exchange is common across different plant types, but that acclimation to warmer temperatures tends to have a relatively greater positive effect on the processes most limiting to carbon assimilation, which differ by plant type. The acclimation responses observed here suggest that warmer conditions should lead to increased rates of carbon assimilation when water and nutrients are not limiting. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Asymmetric effects of cooler and warmer winters on beech phenology last beyond spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Signarbieux, Constant; Toledano, Ester; Sangines, Paula; Fu, Yongshuo; Schlaepfer, Rodolphe; Buttler, Alexandre; Vitasse, Yann

2017-04-01

In temperate trees, the timing of plant growth onset and cessation affect biogeochemical cycles, water and energy balance. Currently, phenological studies largely focus on specific phenophases and on their responses to warming. How differently spring phenology responds to the warming and cooling, and affects the subsequent phases, has not been well investigated. Here, we exposed saplings of Fagus sylvatica L. to warmer and cooler climate during the winter 2013-2014 by conducting a reciprocal transplant experiment between two elevations (1340 vs. 371 m.a.s.l., ca. 6°C difference) in the Swiss Jura mountains. To test the legacy effects of earlier or later budburst on the budset timing, saplings were moved back to their original elevation shortly after the occurrence of budburst in spring 2014. One degree decrease of air temperature resulted in a delay of 10.9 days in budburst dates, whereas one degree of warming advanced the date by 8.8 days. Interestingly, we found an asymmetric effect of the warmer winter vs. cooler winter on the budset timing in autumn: saplings experiencing a cooler winter showed a delay of 31 days in their budset timing compared to the control, whereas saplings experiencing a warmer winter showed 10 days earlier budset. The dependency of spring over autumn phenophases might be partly explained by the building up of the non-structural carbohydrate storage and suggests that the potential delay in growth cessation due to global warming might be smaller than expected. We did not find a significant correlation in budburst dates between 2014 and 2015, indicating that the legacy effects of the different phenophases might be reset during each winter. Adapting phenological models to the whole annual phenological cycle, and considering the different response to cooling and warming, would improve predictions of tree phenology under future climate warming conditions.

Will the warmer temperature bring the more intensity precipitation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yutong, Z., II; Wang, T.

2017-12-01

Will the warmer temperature bring the more intensity precipitation?Over the past several decades, changes in climate are amplified over the Tibetan Plateau(TP), with warming trend almost being twice as large as the global average. In sharp contrast, there is a large spatial discrepancy of the variations in precipitation extremes, with increasing trends found in the southern and decreasing trends in central TP. These features motivate are urgent need for an observation-based understanding of how precipitation extremes respond to climate change. Here we examine the relation between precipitation intensity with atmospheric temperature, dew point temperature (Td) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) in Tibet Plateau. Owing to the influences of the westerlies and Indian monsoon on Tibetan climate, the stations can be divided into three sub-regions in TP: the westerlies region (north of 35°N, N = 28), the monsoon region (south of 30°N in TP, N = 31), and the transition region (located between 30°N and 35°N, N = 48). We found that the intensity precipitation does not follow the C-C relation and there is a mix of positive and negative slope. To better understand why different scaling occurs with temperature in district region, using the dew point temperature replace the temperature, although there is significant variability in relative humidity values, at most stations, there appears to be a general increase in relative humidity associated. It is likely that the observed rise in relative humidity can assist in explaining the negative scaling of extreme precipitation at westerlies domain and monsoon domain, with the primary reason why precipitation extremes expected to increase follows from the fact that a warmer atmosphere can "hold" more moisture. This suggests that not only on how much the moisture the atmosphere can hold, but on how much moisture exits in atmosphere. To understand the role of dynamic on extreme precipitation, we repeat the precipitation

Methane Feedbacks to the Global Climate System in a Warmer World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dean, Joshua F.; Middelburg, Jack J.; Röckmann, Thomas; Aerts, Rien; Blauw, Luke G.; Egger, Matthias; Jetten, Mike S. M.; de Jong, Anniek E. E.; Meisel, Ove H.; Rasigraf, Olivia; Slomp, Caroline P.; in't Zandt, Michiel H.; Dolman, A. J.

2018-03-01

Methane (CH4) is produced in many natural systems that are vulnerable to change under a warming climate, yet current CH4 budgets, as well as future shifts in CH4 emissions, have high uncertainties. Climate change has the potential to increase CH4 emissions from critical systems such as wetlands, marine and freshwater systems, permafrost, and methane hydrates, through shifts in temperature, hydrology, vegetation, landscape disturbance, and sea level rise. Increased CH4 emissions from these systems would in turn induce further climate change, resulting in a positive climate feedback. Here we synthesize biological, geochemical, and physically focused CH4 climate feedback literature, bringing together the key findings of these disciplines. We discuss environment-specific feedback processes, including the microbial, physical, and geochemical interlinkages and the timescales on which they operate, and present the current state of knowledge of CH4 climate feedbacks in the immediate and distant future. The important linkages between microbial activity and climate warming are discussed with the aim to better constrain the sensitivity of the CH4 cycle to future climate predictions. We determine that wetlands will form the majority of the CH4 climate feedback up to 2100. Beyond this timescale, CH4 emissions from marine and freshwater systems and permafrost environments could become more important. Significant CH4 emissions to the atmosphere from the dissociation of methane hydrates are not expected in the near future. Our key findings highlight the importance of quantifying whether CH4 consumption can counterbalance CH4 production under future climate scenarios.

Forest disturbances under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidl, Rupert; Thom, Dominik; Kautz, Markus; Martin-Benito, Dario; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, Davide; Petr, Michal; Honkaniemi, Juha; Lexer, Manfred J.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Mairota, Paola; Svoboda, Miroslav; Fabrika, Marek; Nagel, Thomas A.; Reyer, Christopher P. O.

2017-06-01

Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.

Forest disturbances under climate change

PubMed Central

Seidl, Rupert; Thom, Dominik; Kautz, Markus; Martin-Benito, Dario; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, Davide; Petr, Michal; Honkaniemi, Juha; Lexer, Manfred J.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Mairota, Paola; Svoboda, Miroslav; Fabrika, Marek; Nagel, Thomas A.; Reyer, Christopher P. O.

2017-01-01

Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests. PMID:28861124

[Quality Improvement Project: Increasing the Rate of Proper Use of Infant Transferring Warmers].

PubMed

Huang, Hsiu-Yu; Fann, Guei-Ling

2015-10-01

Infant-transferring warmers provide a warm environment and emergency care facilities such ventilators for high-risk infants during transport. Accurate use of this warmer has been demonstrated to reduce rates of neonatal complications and increase rates of survival. This project found that, despite the complaints of nurses that warmers occasionally malfunctioned during the transfer process, warmer functions nearly always tested normal after use. Therefore, the researchers surveyed ward nurses to better understand the underlying reasons for these complaints. Results found that only 68.4% of those surveyed operated the warmer correctly. The reasons for improper use were analyzed and categorized as: Nurse-related factors - lack of warmer operating knowledge and experience in the clinic; System-related factors - lack of a standard operating procedure (SOP) and monitor/audit practices and an incomplete training protocol; Equipment-related factors - lack of an equipment preparation SOP and difficulties in setting the ventilator properly. The purpose of this project was to achieve a 100% rate of proper warmer use among nurses. Through continuous clinical education, we created a standard operating procedure for warmer operation, created a video and poster for warmer users, simplified the equipment preparation SOP, and periodically monitored and checked results. After the intervention, 100% of the nurses were able to use the warmers correctly. Additionally, the rate of satisfaction for nursing-warmer use among the participating nurses increased from 51.4% to 80.6%. This project effectively increased the rate for correctly using transferring warmers among participating nurses and improved the quality of medical care.

Climate Change Detection and Attribution of Infrared Spectrum Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa; Parker, Peter A.; Mlynczak, Martin G.

2012-01-01

Climate change occurs when the Earth's energy budget changes due to natural or possibly anthropogenic forcings. These forcings cause the climate system to adjust resulting in a new climate state that is warmer or cooler than the original. The key question is how to detect and attribute climate change. The inference of infrared spectral signatures of climate change has been discussed in the literature for nearly 30 years. Pioneering work in the 1980s noted that distinct spectral signatures would be evident in changes in the infrared radiance emitted by the Earth and its atmosphere, and that these could be observed from orbiting satellites. Since then, a number of other studies have advanced the concepts of spectral signatures of climate change. Today the concept of using spectral signatures to identify and attribute atmospheric composition change is firmly accepted and is the foundation of the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) satellite mission being developed at NASA. In this work, we will present an overview of the current climate change detection concept using climate model calculations as surrogates for climate change. Any future research work improving the methodology to achieve this concept will be valuable to our society.

Climate change likely to favor shift toward warmer climate states of the Pliocene and Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, K. D.; Williams, J. W.

2017-12-01

As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the climate system is moving toward a state without precedent in the historical record. Various past climate states have been proposed as potential analogues or model systems for the coming decades, including the early to middle Holocene, the last interglacial, the middle Pliocene, and the early Eocene. However, until now, such comparisons have been qualitative. To compare these time periods to the projected climate states for the 21st and 22nd centuries, we conduct a climate similarity analysis using the standardized Euclidean distance metric (SED) and seasonal means of surface air temperature and precipitation. We make this future-to-past comparison using 30-year mean climatologies, for every decade between 2020 and 2280 AD (27 total comparisons). The list of past earth system states includes the historical period (1940-1970 AD), a pre-industrial control (ca. 1850), the middle Holocene (ca. 6 ka), the last glacial maximum (ca. 21 ka), the last interglacial (ca. 125 ka), the middle Pliocene (ca. 3 Ma), and the early Eocene (ca. 50-55 Ma). To reduce uncertainties resulting from choice of earth system model, analyses are based on simulations from three earth system models (HadCM, CCSM, NASA/GISS Model-E), using in part experiments from PMIP2, PMIP3/CMIP5, EoMIP, and PlioMIP. Results are presented for two representative concentration pathways (RCP's 4.5, 8.5). By 2050 AD, the most common past climate analogue is sourced from the Pliocene for RCP 8.5, while by 2190 AD, the Eocene becomes the source of the most common past climate analogue. For RCP 4.5, in which radiative forcings stabilize this century, the Pliocene becomes the most important past climate analogue by 2100 AD. Low latitude climates are the first to most closely resemble these past earth warm periods. The mid-latitudes then follow this pattern by the end of the 22nd century. Although no past state of the earth system is a perfect analogue

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

PubMed

Liao, Wei; Elison Timm, Oliver; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T; LaPointe, Dennis A; Samuel, Michael D

2015-12-01

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liao, Wei; Timm, Oliver Elison; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

2015-01-01

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

Evidence for lower plasticity in CTMAX at warmer developmental temperatures.

PubMed

Kellermann, Vanessa; Sgrò, Carla M

2018-06-07

Understanding the capacity for different species to reduce their susceptibility to climate change via phenotypic plasticity is essential for accurately predicting species extinction risk. The climatic variability hypothesis suggests that spatial and temporal variation in climatic variables should select for more plastic phenotypes. However, empirical support for this hypothesis is limited. Here, we examine the capacity for ten Drosophila species to increase their critical thermal maxima (CT MAX ) through developmental acclimation and/or adult heat hardening. Using four fluctuating developmental temperature regimes, ranging from 13 to 33 °C, we find that most species can increase their CT MAX via developmental acclimation and adult hardening, but found no relationship between climatic variables and absolute measures of plasticity. However, when plasticity was dissected across developmental temperatures, a positive association between plasticity and one measure of climatic variability (temperature seasonality) was found when development took place between 26 and 28 °C, whereas a negative relationship was found when development took place between 20 and 23 °C. In addition, a decline in CT MAX and egg-to-adult viability, a proxy for fitness, was observed in tropical species at the warmer developmental temperatures (26-28 °C); this suggests that tropical species may be at even greater risk from climate change than currently predicted. The combined effects of developmental acclimation and adult hardening on CT MAX were small, contributing to a <0.60 °C shift in CT MAX . Although small shifts in CT MAX may increase population persistence in the shorter term, the degree to which they can contribute to meaningful responses in the long term is unclear. © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

A Warmer Atmosphere on Mars near the Noachian-Hesperian Boundary: Evidence from Basal Melting of the South Polar Ice Cap (Dorsa Argentea Formation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fastook, J. L.; Head, J. W.; Marchant, D. R.; Forget, F.; Madeleine, J.-B.

2012-05-01

Eskers in the Dorsa Argentea Formation imply the presence of an ice sheet with a wet bed. With an ice sheet model, we examine a range of geothermal heat fluxes and warmer climates to determine what conditions could produce such an ice sheet.

Will seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) quality change in a warmer ocean?

PubMed

Barbosa, Vera; Maulvault, Ana Luísa; Alves, Ricardo N; Anacleto, Patrícia; Pousão-Ferreira, Pedro; Carvalho, Maria Luísa; Nunes, Maria Leonor; Rosa, Rui; Marques, António

2017-07-01

The impacts of climate change on seafood quality, safety and human health are still unknown. The present study investigated the effect of warming on fatty acids and elements content in two tissues (muscle and liver) of the relevant commercial seabass species (Dicentrarchus labrax). After exposing fish to increased seawater temperature for a period of 60days, higher saturated fatty acid (SFA) levels were observed in fish muscle (2.16% increase); whereas lower SFA levels were observed in fish liver (5.42% decrease). On the other hand, monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) contents decreased in both muscle (1.77% and 0.39%, respectively) and liver (10.54% and 8.11%, respectively) of fish subjected to warmer conditions. Additionally, warming promoted changes in fish elemental profiles, leading to significantly higher levels of Cl in the muscle and lower levels of Rb in the liver. Overall, data showed that fatty acids and elemental contents were affected by temperature, though representing small implications to human health. Moreover, this preliminary study highlights the importance of conducting further seafood risk-benefit assessments under climate change contexts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Effects on Corn Yield in Missouri(.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Qi; Buyanovsky, Gregory

2003-11-01

Understanding climate effects on crop yield has been a continuous endeavor aiming at improving farming technology and management strategy, minimizing negative climate effects, and maximizing positive climate effects on yield. Many studies have examined climate effects on corn yield in different regions of the United States. However, most of those studies used yield and climate records that were shorter than 10 years and were for different years and localities. Although results of those studies showed various influences of climate on corn yield, they could be time specific and have been difficult to use for deriving a comprehensive understanding of climate effects on corn yield. In this study, climate effects on corn yield in central Missouri are examined using unique long-term (1895 1998) datasets of both corn yield and climate. Major results show that the climate effects on corn yield can only be explained by within-season variations in rainfall and temperature and cannot be distinguished by average growing-season conditions. Moreover, the growing-season distributions of rainfall and temperature for high-yield years are characterized by less rainfall and warmer temperature in the planting period, a rapid increase in rainfall, and more rainfall and warmer temperatures during germination and emergence. More rainfall and cooler-than-average temperatures are key features in the anthesis and kernel-filling periods from June through August, followed by less rainfall and warmer temperatures during the September and early October ripening time. Opposite variations in rainfall and temperature in the growing season correspond to low yield. Potential applications of these results in understanding how climate change may affect corn yield in the region also are discussed.

The Climate Services Partnership (CSP): Working Together to Improve Climate Services Worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zebiak, S.; Brasseur, G.; Members of the CSP Coordinating Group

2012-04-01

Throughout the world, climate services are required to address urgent needs for climate-informed decision-making, policy and planning. These needs were explored in detail at the first International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS), held in New York in October 2011. After lengthy discussions of needs and capabilities, the conference culminated in the creation of the Climate Services Partnership (CSP). The CSP is an informal interdisciplinary network of climate information users, providers, donors and researchers interested in improving the provision and development of climate services worldwide. Members of the Climate Services Partnership work together to share knowledge, accelerate learning, develop new capacities, and establish good practices. These collaborative efforts will inform and support the evolution and implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services. The Climate Services Partnership focuses its efforts on three levels. These include: 1. encouraging and sustaining connections between climate information providers, users, donors, and researchers 2. gathering, synthesizing and disseminating current knowledge on climate services by way of an online knowledge management platform 3. generating new knowledge on critical topics in climate service development and provision, through the creation of focused working groups on specific topics To date, the Climate Services Partnership has made progress on all three fronts. Connections have been fostered through outreach at major international conferences and professional societies. The CSP also maintains a website and a monthly newsletter, which serves as a resource for those interested in climate services. The second International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS2) will be held in Berlin in September. The CSP has also created a knowledge capture system that gathers and disseminates a wide range of information related to the development and provision of climate services. This includes an online

Geoengineering: Direct Mitigation of Climate Warming

EPA Science Inventory

For Frank Princiotta’s book, Global Climate Change—The Technology Challenge With the concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) rising to levels unprecedented in the current glacial epoch, the earth’s climate system appears to be rapidly shifting into a warmer regime....

Snowmelt sensitivity to warmer temperatures: a field-validated model analysis, southern Sierra Nevada, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musselman, K. N.; Molotch, N. P.; Margulis, S. A.

2014-12-01

We present model simulations of climate change impacts on snowmelt processes over a 1600 km2 area in the southern Sierra Nevada, including western Sequoia National Park. The domain spans a 3600 m elevation gradient and ecosystems ranging from semi-arid grasslands to giant sequoia groves to alpine tundra. Three reference years were evaluated: a moderately dry snow season (23% below average SWE), an average snow season (7% above average SWE), and a moderately wet snow season (54% above average SWE). The Alpine3D model was run for the reference years and results were evaluated against data from a multi-scale measurement campaign that included repeated manual snow courses and basin-scale snow surveys, dozens of automated snow depth sensors, and automated SWE stations. Compared to automated measurements, the model represented the date of snow disappearance within two days. Compared to manual measurements, model SWE RMSE values for the average and wet snow seasons were highly correlated (R2=0.89 and R2=0.73) with the distance of SWE measurements from the nearest precipitation gauge used to force the model; no significant correlation was found with elevation. The results suggest that Alpine3D is highly accurate during the melt season and that precipitation uncertainty may critically limit snow model accuracy. The air temperature measured at 19 regional stations for the three reference years was modified by +1°C to +6°C to simulate the impact of warmer temperatures on snowmelt dynamics over the 3600 m elevation gradient. For all years, progressively warmer temperatures caused the seasonal SWE centroid to shift earlier and higher in elevation. At forested middle elevations, 70 - 80% of the present-day snowpack volume is lost in a +2°C scenario; 30 - 40% of that change is a result of precipitation phase shift and the remainder is due to enhanced melt. At all elevations, spring and fall snowpack was most sensitive to warmer temperatures; mid-winter sensitivity was least

Reduced Urban Heat Island intensity under warmer conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, Anna A.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Zaitchik, Ben F.

2018-06-01

The Urban Heat Island (UHI), the tendency for urban areas to be hotter than rural regions, represents a significant health concern in summer as urban populations are exposed to elevated temperatures. A number of studies suggest that the UHI increases during warmer conditions, however there has been no investigation of this for a large ensemble of cities. Here we compare urban and rural temperatures in 54 US cities for 2000–2015 and show that the intensity of the Urban Heat Island, measured here as the differences in daily-minimum or daily-maximum temperatures between urban and rural stations or ΔT, in fact tends to decrease with increasing temperature in most cities (38/54). This holds when investigating daily variability, heat extremes, and variability across climate zones and is primarily driven by changes in rural areas. We relate this change to large-scale or synoptic weather conditions, and find that the lowest ΔT nights occur during moist weather conditions. We also find that warming cities have not experienced an increasing Urban Heat Island effect.

[Allergic disease--pollen allergy and climate change].

PubMed

Sommer, Janne; Plaschke, Peter; Poulsen, Lars K

2009-10-26

Pollen allergy currently affects a fifth of the population. A warmer climate will lead to a longer pollen season and more days with high pollen counts. In addition, a warmer climate increases the risk of proliferation of new plants with well-known allergenic pollens like ragweed, plane tree and wall pellitory, which have not previously caused allergy in Denmark. The consequences will be more people with hay fever and pollen asthma, longer allergy seasons and an increase in the severity of symptoms, disease-related costs and demands on health care for diagnosis and treatment of more complex allergies.

Researchers consider U.S. Southwest's response to warmer, drier conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Kevin M.; Webb, Robert H.

In 2000, the popular press frequently referred to reports that the southwestern United States might experience a shift from relatively wet to dry conditions during the next couple of decades (see http://topex-www.jpl.nasa.gov/discover/PDO.html). These predictions stemmed from observations that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) appeared to abruptly change from a “positive” to a “negative” phase in 1999 (Figure 1). During the mid-twentieth century, a similar negative phase of the PDO was accompanied by prolonged dry conditions in the southwest.By extrapolation, some climatologists predicted future drought in the southwest. Such a change would heavily affect land use planning in the region, because national demographics have stressed the region's resources over the past century From 1990 to 2000, for instance, the population of Nevada and Arizona increased by almost 2.3 million people (http://www.census.gov/population/www/cen2000/respop.html). To discuss potential scenarios of landscape and ecosystem response to 25 years of hot and dry climate, scientists from diverse disciplines gathered at the University of Arizona in April 2001. The objectives of this workshop were to address evidence supporting predictions of warmer and drier climate and the possible landscape responses (http://geology.wr.usgs.gov/sw-workshop/).

Climatic warming and the future of bison as grazers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craine, Joseph M.; Towne, E. Gene; Miller, Mary; Fierer, Noah

2015-11-01

Climatic warming is likely to exacerbate nutritional stress and reduce weight gain in large mammalian herbivores by reducing plant nutritional quality. Yet accurate predictions of the effects of climatic warming on herbivores are limited by a poor understanding of how herbivore diet varies along climate gradients. We utilized DNA metabarcoding to reconstruct seasonal variation in the diet of North American bison (Bison bison) in two grasslands that differ in mean annual temperature by 6 °C. Here, we show that associated with greater nutritional stress in warmer climates, bison consistently consumed fewer graminoids and more shrubs and forbs, i.e. eudicots. Bison in the warmer grassland consumed a lower proportion of C3 grass, but not a greater proportion of C4 grass. Instead, bison diet in the warmer grassland had a greater proportion of N2-fixing eudicots, regularly comprising >60% of their protein intake in spring and fall. Although bison have been considered strict grazers, as climatic warming reduces grass protein concentrations, bison may have to attempt to compensate by grazing less and browsing more. Promotion of high-protein, palatable eudicots or increasing the protein concentrations of grasses will be critical to minimizing warming-imposed nutritional stress for bison and perhaps other large mammalian herbivores.

Work safety climate, musculoskeletal discomfort, working while injured, and depression among migrant farmworkers in North Carolina.

PubMed

Arcury, Thomas A; O'Hara, Heather; Grzywacz, Joseph G; Isom, Scott; Chen, Haiying; Quandt, Sara A

2012-05-01

This analysis described Latino migrant farmworkers' work safety climate and its association with musculoskeletal discomfort, working while injured or ill, and depressive symptoms. Data were from a cross-sectional survey of 300 farmworkers conducted in North Carolina in 2009. Generalized estimating equations models were used to investigate the association of work safety climate with health and safety outcomes. Farmworkers perceived their work safety climate to be poor. About 40% had elevated musculoskeletal discomfort, 5.0% had worked at least 1 day while injured or ill, and 27.9% had elevated depressive symptoms. The odds of elevated musculoskeletal discomfort were 12% lower and the odds of working while injured or ill were 15% lower with each 1-unit increase in the work safety climate. Work safety climate was not associated with depressive symptoms. Work safety climate was important for agricultural workers. Poor work safety climate was associated with health outcomes (musculoskeletal discomfort) and safety (working while injured or ill). Interventions to improve work safety climate in agriculture are needed, with these interventions being directed to employers and workers.

Work Safety Climate, Musculoskeletal Discomfort, Working While Injured, and Depression Among Migrant Farmworkers in North Carolina

PubMed Central

O’Hara, Heather; Grzywacz, Joseph G.; Isom, Scott; Chen, Haiying; Quandt, Sara A.

2012-01-01

Objectives. This analysis described Latino migrant farmworkers’ work safety climate and its association with musculoskeletal discomfort, working while injured or ill, and depressive symptoms. Methods. Data were from a cross-sectional survey of 300 farmworkers conducted in North Carolina in 2009. Generalized estimating equations models were used to investigate the association of work safety climate with health and safety outcomes. Results. Farmworkers perceived their work safety climate to be poor. About 40% had elevated musculoskeletal discomfort, 5.0% had worked at least 1 day while injured or ill, and 27.9% had elevated depressive symptoms. The odds of elevated musculoskeletal discomfort were 12% lower and the odds of working while injured or ill were 15% lower with each 1-unit increase in the work safety climate. Work safety climate was not associated with depressive symptoms. Conclusions. Work safety climate was important for agricultural workers. Poor work safety climate was associated with health outcomes (musculoskeletal discomfort) and safety (working while injured or ill). Interventions to improve work safety climate in agriculture are needed, with these interventions being directed to employers and workers. PMID:22401520

Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period.

PubMed

Haywood, Alan M; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M

2016-02-16

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change.

The associations between work-life balance behaviours, teamwork climate and safety climate: cross-sectional survey introducing the work-life climate scale, psychometric properties, benchmarking data and future directions.

PubMed

Sexton, J Bryan; Schwartz, Stephanie P; Chadwick, Whitney A; Rehder, Kyle J; Bae, Jonathan; Bokovoy, Joanna; Doram, Keith; Sotile, Wayne; Adair, Kathryn C; Profit, Jochen

2017-08-01

Improving the resiliency of healthcare workers is a national imperative, driven in part by healthcare workers having minimal exposure to the skills and culture to achieve work-life balance (WLB). Regardless of current policies, healthcare workers feel compelled to work more and take less time to recover from work. Satisfaction with WLB has been measured, as has work-life conflict, but how frequently healthcare workers engage in specific WLB behaviours is rarely assessed. Measurement of behaviours may have advantages over measurement of perceptions; behaviours more accurately reflect WLB and can be targeted by leaders for improvement. 1. To describe a novel survey scale for evaluating work-life climate based on specific behavioural frequencies in healthcare workers.2. To evaluate the scale's psychometric properties and provide benchmarking data from a large healthcare system.3. To investigate associations between work-life climate, teamwork climate and safety climate. Cross-sectional survey study of US healthcare workers within a large healthcare system. 7923 of 9199 eligible healthcare workers across 325 work settings within 16 hospitals completed the survey in 2009 (86% response rate). The overall work-life climate scale internal consistency was Cronbach α=0.790. t-Tests of top versus bottom quartile work settings revealed that positive work-life climate was associated with better teamwork climate, safety climate and increased participation in safety leadership WalkRounds with feedback (p<0.001). Univariate analysis of variance demonstrated differences that varied significantly in WLB between healthcare worker role, hospitals and work setting. The work-life climate scale exhibits strong psychometric properties, elicits results that vary widely by work setting, discriminates between positive and negative workplace norms, and aligns well with other culture constructs that have been found to correlate with clinical outcomes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Insect Communities: A Transplant Experiment

PubMed Central

Nooten, Sabine S.; Andrew, Nigel R.; Hughes, Lesley

2014-01-01

Climate change will have profound impacts on the distribution, abundance and ecology of all species. We used a multi-species transplant experiment to investigate the potential effects of a warmer climate on insect community composition and structure. Eight native Australian plant species were transplanted into sites approximately 2.5°C (mean annual temperature) warmer than their native range. Subsequent insect colonisation was monitored for 12 months. We compared the insect communities on transplanted host plants at the warmer sites with control plants transplanted within the species' native range. Comparisons of the insect communities were also made among transplanted plants at warmer sites and congeneric plant species native to the warmer transplant area. We found that the morphospecies composition of the colonising Coleoptera and Hemiptera communities differed markedly between transplants at the control compared to the warmer sites. Community structure, as described by the distribution of feeding guilds, was also found to be different between the controls and transplants when the entire Coleoptera and Hemiptera community, including non-herbivore feeding guilds, was considered. However, the structure of the herbivorous insect community showed a higher level of consistency between plants at control and warm sites. There were marked differences in community composition and feeding guild structure, for both herbivores and non-herbivores, between transplants and congenerics at the warm sites. These results suggest that as the climate warms, considerable turnover in the composition of insect communities may occur, but insect herbivore communities may retain elements of their present-day structure. PMID:24465827

Learning Climate and Work Group Skills in Care Work

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Westerberg, Kristina; Hauer, Esther

2009-01-01

Purpose: The overall aim of the present study was to investigate the learning climate and work group skills perceived by managers and their subordinates in the municipal elderly care, prior to a development project. The specific research questions were: Are managers' and their subordinates' perceptions of the learning climate related? and Does the…

Thermal physiology of native cool-climate, and non-native warm-climate Pumpkinseed sunfish raised in a common environment.

PubMed

Rooke, Anna C; Burness, Gary; Fox, Michael G

2017-02-01

Contemporary evolution of thermal physiology has the potential to help limit the physiological stress associated with rapidly changing thermal environments; however it is unclear if wild populations can respond quickly enough for such changes to be effective. We used native Canadian Pumpkinseed (Lepomis gibbosus) sunfish, and non-native Pumpkinseed introduced into the milder climate of Spain ~100 years ago, to assess genetic differences in thermal physiology in response to the warmer non-native climate. We compared temperature performance reaction norms of two Canadian and two Spanish Pumpkinseed populations born and raised within a common environment. We found that Canadian Pumpkinseed had higher routine metabolic rates when measured at seasonally high temperatures (15°C in winter, 30°C in summer), and that Spanish Pumpkinseed had higher critical thermal maxima when acclimated to 30°C in the summer. Growth rates were not significantly different among populations, however Canadian Pumpkinseed tended to have faster growth at the warmest temperatures measured (32°C). The observed differences in physiology among Canadian and Spanish populations at the warmest acclimation temperatures are consistent with the introduced populations being better suited to the warmer non-native climate than native populations. The observed differences could be the result of either founder effects, genetic drift, and/or contemporary adaptive evolution in the warmer non-native climate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate-mediated competition in a high-elevation salamander community

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dallalio, Eric A.; Brand, Adrianne B,; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

2017-01-01

The distribution of the federally endangered Shenandoah Salamander (Plethodon shenandoah) is presumed to be limited by competition with the Red-backed Salamander (Plethodon cinereus). In particular, the current distribution of P. shenandoah is understood to be restricted to warmer and drier habitats because of interspecific interactions. These habitats may be particularly sensitive to climate change, though the influence of competition may also be affected by temperature and relative humidity. We investigated the response of P. shenandoah to competition with P. cinereus under four climate scenarios in 3-dimensional mesocosms. The results suggest that, although climate change may alleviate competitive pressure from P. cinereus, warmer temperatures may also significantly influence the persistence of the species across its known range.

Energy Balance, Climate, and Life \\-- Work of M. Budyko

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahalan, R. F.

2003-12-01

This talk will review the work of Mikhail I. Budyko, author of "Climate and Life" and many other works, who died recently at the age of 81 in St. Petersburg, Russia. He directed the Division for Climate Change Research at the State Hydrological Institute. We will explore Budyko's work in clarifying the role of energy balance in determining planetary climate, and the role of climate in regulating Earth's biosphere.

Energy Balance, Climate, and Life - Work of M. Budyko

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cahalan, Robert F.

2004-01-01

This talk will review the work of Mikhail I. Budyko, author of "Climate and Life" and many other works, who died recently at age 81, in St Petersburg, Russia. He directed the Division for Climate Change Research at the State Hydrological Institute. We will explore Budyko's work in clarifying the role of energy balance in determining planetary climate, and the role of climate in regulating Earth s biosphere.

Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Hong; Shiogama, Hideo; Zhang, Yuqing

2018-03-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia). Less rural populations (-217.7 ± 79.2 million and -216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought) and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.

Empirical Estimation of Climate Impacts Under Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rising, J. A.; Jina, A.; Hsiang, S. M.

2016-12-01

Estimating the impacts of climate change requires a careful account of both the present levels of adaptation observed in different regions and the adaptive capacity those regions might show under climate change. To date, little empirical evidence on either of these components. We present a general approach for empirically estimating the impacts of climate change under both forms of adaptation, applied to the United States. We draw upon relationships between daily temperatures and impacts on mortality, agriculture, and crime, from the econometric climate impacts literature. These are estimated using year-to-year temperature variation within each location. The degree to which regions are vulnerable to high temperatures varies across the US, with warmer regions generally showing less vulnerability. As climate changes, cooler regions will adopt behaviors from warmer regions, such as greater use of air conditioning, and their impact relationships will change accordingly. The rate at which regions have adapted is estimated from changes in these relationships over recent decades. We use these results to model future changes in each US county. as they are exposed to warmer temperatures and adopt characteristics of currently warmer areas. We do this across a full range of climate and statistical uncertainty. The median degree to which adaptation alleviates impacts varies by sector, with 10% lower rates of temperature-induced crime, 15% lower yield losses to maize, to 80% lower rates of heat-related mortality. However, the uncertainty in adaptive capacity remains greater than these changes. Uncertainty in regional response relationships and the rate of adaptation dominate the uncertainty in our total result. We perform two thought experiments to explore the extreme potential for adaptation in light of this uncertainty. We replace the regional relationships with a uniform approach to complete temperature insensitivity, using the normal estimated rate of adaptation. We also

Nitrous oxide emissions are enhanced in a warmer and wetter world.

PubMed

Griffis, Timothy J; Chen, Zichong; Baker, John M; Wood, Jeffrey D; Millet, Dylan B; Lee, Xuhui; Venterea, Rodney T; Turner, Peter A

2017-11-07

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) has a global warming potential that is 300 times that of carbon dioxide on a 100-y timescale, and is of major importance for stratospheric ozone depletion. The climate sensitivity of N 2 O emissions is poorly known, which makes it difficult to project how changing fertilizer use and climate will impact radiative forcing and the ozone layer. Analysis of 6 y of hourly N 2 O mixing ratios from a very tall tower within the US Corn Belt-one of the most intensive agricultural regions of the world-combined with inverse modeling, shows large interannual variability in N 2 O emissions (316 Gg N 2 O-N⋅y -1 to 585 Gg N 2 O-N⋅y -1 ). This implies that the regional emission factor is highly sensitive to climate. In the warmest year and spring (2012) of the observational period, the emission factor was 7.5%, nearly double that of previous reports. Indirect emissions associated with runoff and leaching dominated the interannual variability of total emissions. Under current trends in climate and anthropogenic N use, we project a strong positive feedback to warmer and wetter conditions and unabated growth of regional N 2 O emissions that will exceed 600 Gg N 2 O-N⋅y -1 , on average, by 2050. This increasing emission trend in the US Corn Belt may represent a harbinger of intensifying N 2 O emissions from other agricultural regions. Such feedbacks will pose a major challenge to the Paris Agreement, which requires large N 2 O emission mitigation efforts to achieve its goals. Published under the PNAS license.

Nitrous oxide emissions are enhanced in a warmer and wetter world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffis, Timothy J.; Chen, Zichong; Baker, John M.; Wood, Jeffrey D.; Millet, Dylan B.; Lee, Xuhui; Venterea, Rodney T.; Turner, Peter A.

2017-11-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) has a global warming potential that is 300 times that of carbon dioxide on a 100-y timescale, and is of major importance for stratospheric ozone depletion. The climate sensitivity of N2O emissions is poorly known, which makes it difficult to project how changing fertilizer use and climate will impact radiative forcing and the ozone layer. Analysis of 6 y of hourly N2O mixing ratios from a very tall tower within the US Corn Belt—one of the most intensive agricultural regions of the world—combined with inverse modeling, shows large interannual variability in N2O emissions (316 Gg N2O-Nṡy‑1 to 585 Gg N2O-Nṡy‑1). This implies that the regional emission factor is highly sensitive to climate. In the warmest year and spring (2012) of the observational period, the emission factor was 7.5%, nearly double that of previous reports. Indirect emissions associated with runoff and leaching dominated the interannual variability of total emissions. Under current trends in climate and anthropogenic N use, we project a strong positive feedback to warmer and wetter conditions and unabated growth of regional N2O emissions that will exceed 600 Gg N2O-Nṡy‑1, on average, by 2050. This increasing emission trend in the US Corn Belt may represent a harbinger of intensifying N2O emissions from other agricultural regions. Such feedbacks will pose a major challenge to the Paris Agreement, which requires large N2O emission mitigation efforts to achieve its goals.

Variability in Heat Strain in Fully Encapsulated Impermeable Suits in Different Climates and at Different Work Loads.

PubMed

DenHartog, Emiel A; Rubenstein, Candace D; Deaton, A Shawn; Bogerd, Cornelis Peter

2017-03-01

A major concern for responders to hazardous materials (HazMat) incidents is the heat strain that is caused by fully encapsulated impermeable (NFPA 1991) suits. In a research project, funded by the US Department of Defense, the thermal strain experienced when wearing these suits was studied. Forty human subjects between the ages of 25 and 50 participated in a protocol approved by the local ethical committee. Six different fully encapsulated impermeable HazMat suits were evaluated in three climates: moderate (24°C, 50% RH, 20°C WBGT), warm-wet (32°C, 60% RH, 30°C WBGT), and hot-dry (45°C, 20% RH, 37°C WBGT, 200 W m-2 radiant load) and at three walking speeds: 2.5, 4, and 5.5 km h-1. The medium speed, 4 km h-1, was tested in all three climates and the other two walking speeds were only tested in the moderate climate. Prior to the test a submaximal exercise test in normal clothing was performed to determine a relationship between heart rate and oxygen consumption (pretest). In total, 163 exposures were measured. Tolerance time ranged from as low as 20 min in the hot-dry condition to 60 min (the maximum) in the moderate climate, especially common at the lowest walking speed. Between the six difference suits limited differences were found, a two-layered aluminized suit exhibited significant shorter tolerance times in the moderate climate, but no other major significant differences were found for the other climates or workloads. An important characteristic of the overall dataset is the large variability between the subjects. Although the average responses seem suitable to be predicted, the variability in the warmer strain conditions ranged from 20 min up to 60 min. The work load in these encapsulated impermeable suits was also significantly higher than working in normal clothing and higher than predicted by the Pandolf equation. Heart rate showed a very strong correlation to body core temperature and was in many cases the limiting factor. Setting the heart rate

Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period

PubMed Central

Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.

2016-01-01

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change. PMID:26879640

In-line pressure within a HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer, under various flow conditions.

PubMed

Higashi, Midoriko; Yamaura, Ken; Matsubara, Yukie; Fukudome, Takuya; Hoka, Sumio

2015-04-01

Roller pump infusion devices are widely used for rapid infusion, and may be combined with separate warming devices. There may be instances however, where the pressures generated by the roller pump may not be compatible with the warming device. We assessed a commonly used roller pump in combination with a HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer, and found that it could generate pressures exceeding the HOTLINE® manufacturers specifications. This was of concern because the HOTLINE® manufacturer guideline states that not for use with pressure devices generating over 300 mmHg. Pressure greater than 300 mmHg may compromise the integrity of the HOTLINE® Fluid Warming Set. The aim of this study was to compare in-line pressure within a HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer at different infusion rates of a roller pump using various sizes of intravenous cannulae. The rapid infusion system comprised a 500 mL-normal saline bag, roller pump type infusion device, HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer (blood and fluid warmer system), and six different sizes of intravenous cannulae. In-line pressure was measured proximal to the HOTLINE® (pre-warmer) and proximal to the cannula (post-warmer), at flow rate of 50-160 mL/min. The in-line pressures increased significantly with increasing flow rate. The pre-warmer pressures exceeded 300 mmHg when the flow rate was ≥120 mL/min with 20-gauge, 48 mm length cannula, 130 with 20-gauge, 25 mm cannula, and 160 mL/min with 18-gauge, 48 mm cannula. However, they were <300 mmHg at any flow rates with 18-gauge, 30 mm cannula and 16-gauge cannulae. The post-warmer pressures exceeded 300 mmHg at the flow rate of 140 mL/min with 20-gauge, 48 mm cannula, and 160 mL/min with 20-gauge, 25 mm cannula, while they were <300 mmHg at any flow rates with 18 and 16-gauge cannulae. The in-line pressure within a HOTLINE® could exceed 300 mmHg, depending on the flow rate and size and length of cannula. It is important to pay attention to the size and length of cannulae and flow rate to keep the maximum

Climate Change and Health Risks from Extreme Heat and Air Pollution in the Eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limaye, V.; Vargo, J.; Harkey, M.; Holloway, T.; Meier, P.; Patz, J.

2013-12-01

Climate change is expected to exacerbate health risks from exposure to extreme heat and air pollution through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Directly, warmer ambient temperatures promote biogenic emissions of ozone precursors and favor the formation of ground-level ozone, while an anticipated increase in the frequency of stagnant air masses will allow fine particulates to accumulate. Indirectly, warmer summertime temperatures stimulate energy demand and exacerbate polluting emissions from the electricity sector. Thus, while technological adaptations such as air conditioning can reduce risks from exposures to extreme heat, they can trigger downstream damage to air quality and public health. Through an interdisciplinary modeling effort, we quantify the impacts of climate change on ambient temperatures, summer energy demand, air quality, and public health. The first phase of this work explores how climate change will directly impact the burden of heat-related mortality. Climatic patterns, demographic trends, and epidemiologic risk models suggest that populations in the eastern United States are likely to experience an increasing heat stress mortality burden in response to rising summertime air temperatures. We use North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program modeling data to estimate mid-century 2-meter air temperatures and humidity across the eastern US from June-August, and quantify how long-term changes in actual and apparent temperatures from present-day will affect the annual burden of heat-related mortality across this region. With the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, we estimate health risks using concentration-response functions, which relate temperature increases to changes in annual mortality rates. We compare mid-century summertime temperature data, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, to 2007 baseline temperatures at a 12 km resolution in order to estimate

Work climate, work values and professional commitment as predictors of job satisfaction in nurses.

PubMed

Caricati, Luca; Sala, Rachele La; Marletta, Giuseppe; Pelosi, Giulia; Ampollini, Monica; Fabbri, Anna; Ricchi, Alba; Scardino, Marcello; Artioli, Giovanna; Mancini, Tiziana

2014-11-01

To investigate the effect of some psychosocial variables on nurses' job satisfaction. Nurses' job satisfaction is one of the most important factors in determining individuals' intention to stay or leave a health-care organisation. Literature shows a predictive role of work climate, professional commitment and work values on job satisfaction, but their conjoint effect has rarely been considered. A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was adopted. Participants were hospital nurses and data were collected in 2011. Professional commitment and work climate positively predicted nurses' job satisfaction. The effect of intrinsic vs. extrinsic work value orientation on job satisfaction was completely mediated by professional commitment. Nurses' job satisfaction is influenced by both contextual and personal variables, in particular work climate and professional commitment. According to a more recent theoretical framework, work climate, work values and professional commitment interact with each other in determining nurses' job satisfaction. Nursing management must be careful to keep the context of work tuned to individuals' attitude and vice versa. Improving the work climate can have a positive effect on job satisfaction, but its effect may be enhanced by favouring strong professional commitment and by promoting intrinsic more than extrinsic work values. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Pumps and warmers during amnioinfusion: is either necessary?

PubMed

Glantz, J C; Letteney, D L

1996-01-01

To determine if there is evidence from published reports that the use of infusion pumps or solution warmers during amnioinfusion is beneficial. We identified all English-language amnioinfusion reports published since 1983 through Medline and references. Fourteen prospective papers with at least 40 subjects were identified. For the amnioinfusion and control groups in each study, odds ratios (OR) were calculated for cesarean delivery, fetal distress, meconium below the cords, low 5-minute Apgar score, and endometritis. Cumulative ORs were calculated using the Mantel-Haenszel inverse variance method. This process was repeated after separation into pump-gravity and warmed-unwarmed groups. Multiple regression analyses were performed. Amnioinfusion improved the ability of the fetus to tolerate labor (fetal distress OR 0.40), decreased the incidence of meconium below the cords (OR 0.16), and decreased the rate of cesarean delivery (OR 0.56). There were no demonstrable benefits associated with the use of warmers or pumps. In multiple regression analysis, infusion pumps were associated with a significantly increased risk of fetal distress (P = .01). The use of amnioinfusion is associated with a decreased risk of fetal distress, meconium below the cords, and cesarean delivery. To date, there is no demonstrable benefit using infusion pumps or solution warmers during amnioinfusion.

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Blue Mountains

Treesearch

Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson

2017-01-01

The Blue Mountains Adaptation Partnership was developed to identify climate change issues relevant to resource management in the Blue Mountains region, to find solutions that can minimize negative effects of climate change, and to facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. Partnering organizations included three national forests (Malheur, Umatilla...

Extreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid; Najafi, M. S.

2018-01-01

Observations unequivocally show that Iran has been rapidly warming over recent decades, which in sequence has triggered a wide range of climatic impacts. Meteorological records of several ground stations across Iran with daily temporal resolution for the period 1951-2013 were analyzed to investigate the climate change and its impact on some weather extremes. Iran has warmed by nearly 1.3 °C during the period 1951-2013 (+0.2 °C per decade), with an increase of the minimum temperature at a rate two times that of the maximum. Consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat extremes and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes have been observed. The annual precipitation has decreased by 8 mm per decade, causing an expansion of Iran's dry zones. Previous studies have pointed out that warming is generally associated with more frequent heavy precipitation because a warmer air can hold more moisture. Nevertheless, warming in Iran has been associated with more frequent light precipitation, but less frequent moderate, heavy and extremely heavy precipitation. This is because in the subtropical dry zones, a longer time is required to recharge the atmosphere with water vapour in a warmer climate, causing more water vapour to be transported from the subtropics to high latitudes before precipitations forms. In addition, the altitude of the condensation level increases in a warmer climate in subtropical regions, causing an overall decrease of precipitation. We argue that changing in the frequency of heavy precipitation in response to warming varies depending on the geographical location. Warming over the dry subtropical regions is associated with a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation, while an increase is expected over both subpolar and tropical regions. The warmer climate has also led to the increase in the frequency of both thunderstorms (driven by convective heating) and dust events over Iran.

Geographic variation in climate as a proxy for climate change: Forecasting evolutionary trajectories from species differentiation and genetic correlations.

PubMed

Schneider, Heather E; Mazer, Susan J

2016-01-01

Climate change models for California predict a warmer, drier future, potentially resulting in shorter growing seasons. If phenotypic differences between closely related species currently distributed across a moisture and temperature gradient represent adaptations to their abiotic environment, then as conditions become warmer and drier, populations presently adapted to cooler and wetter conditions may evolve to become more similar to those adapted to warmer and drier conditions. Two sister species, Clarkia unguiculata and C. exilis, are distributed across a moisture and temperature gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada, providing an opportunity to predict how this process may occur. In a greenhouse experiment using wild-collected seeds from 11 populations in the southern Sierra Nevada, we examined relationships among elevation, climatic conditions, and population means for each trait, then evaluated bivariate relationships among maternal family means, using raw values and controlling for population and seed mass effects on phenotype. Clarkia exilis occupied warmer, drier conditions, typically at lower elevations, than C. unguiculata did and flowered earlier and faster, producing smaller flowers with lower herkogamy. In C. unguiculata, petal area, herkogamy, and the rate of flower production were positively correlated with days to first flower. If selection favors earlier flowering, smaller petals, or faster flower production in C. unguiculata, then the genetic correlations among these traits should reinforce their joint evolution. Moreover, the correlations between these traits and herkogamy may promote the evolution of self-fertilization as an indirect response to selection, a previously unrecognized potential outcome of climate change. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Hybridization in a warmer world

PubMed Central

Chunco, Amanda J

2014-01-01

Climate change is profoundly affecting the evolutionary trajectory of individual species and ecological communities, in part through the creation of novel species assemblages. How climate change will influence competitive interactions has been an active area of research. Far less attention, however, has been given to altered reproductive interactions. Yet, reproductive interactions between formerly isolated species are inevitable as populations shift geographically and temporally as a result of climate change, potentially resulting in introgression, speciation, or even extinction. The susceptibility of hybridization rates to anthropogenic disturbance was first recognized in the 1930s. To date, work on anthropogenically mediated hybridization has focused primarily on either physical habitat disturbance or species invasion. Here, I review recent literature on hybridization to identify how ecological responses to climate change will increase the likelihood of hybridization via the dissolution of species barriers maintained by habitat, time, or behavior. Using this literature, I identify several cases where novel hybrid zones have recently formed, likely as a result of changing climate. Future research should focus on identifying areas and taxonomic groups where reproductive species interactions are most likely to be influenced by climate change. Furthermore, a better understanding of the evolutionary consequences of climate-mediated secondary contact is urgently needed. Paradoxically, hybridization is both a major conservation concern and an important source of novel genetic and phenotypic variation. Hybridization may therefore both contribute to increasing rates of extinction and stimulate the creation of novel phenotypes that will speed adaptation to novel climates. Predicting which result will occur following secondary contact will be an important contribution to conservation for many species. PMID:24963394

Projections of European summer tourism demand at a +2 degrees warmer climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grillakis, Manolis; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Tsanis, Ioannis; Jacob, Daniela

2015-04-01

Tourism is a billion euros industry for Europe and especially for the southern countries for which summer tourism is an important contribution to their GDP. It is highly dependent on the climate and any future changes will alter the favorability of European destinations. The impact of a potential global temperature increase of 1.5 and 2 degrees on European tourism was investigated in the frame of IMPACT2C FP7 project. Climate information from four ENSEMBLES and five Euro-CORDEX RCMs were used to estimate the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) under the A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The monthly averages of the historical TCI estimates were correlated to the recorded monthly averages of overnight stays for all considered NUTS3 regions in Europe. The correlation proved to be significantly high for the majority of these regions with higher values for the European South, while the lowest correlation was attained for Sweden Denmark and Austria. The correlation estimates was then used to provide information about the change in tourism activity due to changes in the future climate favorability through the TCI. The results show that for the May to October "summer tourism" season, and under +1.5 and +2 degrees climate the potential overnight stays are projected to increase in average in almost the entire European domain, except Cyprus which exhibits a consistent decrease, robust across all scenarios. In contrast, for the peak of the summer season between June and August, it is projected that the European south will potentially exhibit decrease in the overnight stays to as high as 20% and for some cases to even higher than 30% (Greece). Key strength of the results are the correlation of measured tourism indicators to a conceptual index, which gives the ability to quantify the change in the tourism indicator, rather than investigating the coarser concept of climate risk.

Work climate and work load measurement in production room of Batik Merak Manis Laweyan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhardi, Bambang; Simanjutak, Sry Yohana; Laksono, Pringgo Widyo; Herjunowibowo, Dewanto

2017-11-01

The work environment is everything around the labours that can affect them in the exercise of duties and work that is charged. In a work environment, there are workplace climate and workload which affect the labour in force carrying out its work. The working climate is one of the physical factors that could potentially cause health problems towards labour at extreme conditions of hot and cold that exceed the threshold limit value allowed by the standards of health. The climate works closely related to the workload accepted by workers in the performance of their duties. The influence of workload is pretty dominant against the performance of human resources and may cause negative effects to the safety and health of the labours. This study aims to measure the effect of the work climate and the workload against workers productivity. Furthermore, some suggestions to increase the productivity also been recommended. The research conducted in production room of Batik Merak Manis Laweyan. The results showed that the workplace climate and the workload at eight stations in production room of Merak Manis does not agree to the threshold limit value that has been set. Therefore, it is recommended to add more opening windows to add air velocity inside the building thus the humidity and temperature might be reduced.

Climate change and the Delta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, Michael; Anderson, Jamie; Anderson, Michael L.; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Maurer, Edwin P.

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful

Hydrogeologic controls on streamflow sensitivity to climate variation

Treesearch

Anne Jefferson; Anne Nolin; Sarah Lewis; Christina Tague

2008-01-01

Climate models project warmer temperatures for the north-west USA, which will result in reduced snowpacks and decreased summer streamflow. This paper examines how groundwater, snowmelt, and regional climate patterns control discharge at multiple time scales, using historical records from two watersheds with contrasting geological properties and drainage efficiencies....

Potential effect of atmospheric warming on grapevine phenology and post-harvest heat accumulation across a range of climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, Andrew; Mathews, Adam J.; Holzapfel, Bruno P.

2016-09-01

Carbohydrates are accumulated within the perennial structure of grapevines when their production exceeds the requirements of reproduction and growth. The period between harvest and leaf-fall (the post-harvest period) is a key period for carbohydrate accumulation in relatively warmer grape-growing regions. The level of carbohydrate reserves available for utilisation in the following season has an important effect on canopy growth and yield potential and is therefore an important consideration in vineyard management. In a warming climate, the post-harvest period is lengthening and becoming warmer, evidenced through studies in wine regions worldwide that have correlated recent air temperature increases with changing grapevine phenology. Budbreak, flowering, veraison, and harvest have all been observed to be occurring earlier than in previous decades. Additionally, the final stage of the grapevine phenological cycle, leaf-fall, occurs later. This study explored the potential for increased post-harvest carbohydrate accumulation by modelling heat accumulation following harvest dates for the recent climate (1975-2004) and two warmer climate projections with mean temperature anomalies of +1.26 and +2.61 °C. Summaries of post-harvest heat accumulation between harvest and leaf-fall were produced for each of Australia's Geographical Indications (wine regions) to provide comparisons from the base temperatures to projected warmer conditions across a range of climates. The results indicate that for warmer conditions, all regions observe earlier occurring budbreak and harvest as well as increasing post-harvest growing degree days accumulation before leaf-fall. The level of increase varies depending upon starting climatic condition, with cooler regions experiencing the greatest change.

The impact of shift work and organizational work climate on health outcomes in nurses.

PubMed

von Treuer, Kathryn; Fuller-Tyszkiewicz, Matthew; Little, Glenn

2014-10-01

Shift workers have a higher rate of negative health outcomes than day shift workers. Few studies however, have examined the role of difference in workplace environment between shifts itself on such health measures. This study investigated variation in organizational climate across different types of shift work and health outcomes in nurses. Participants (n = 142) were nursing staff from a metropolitan Melbourne hospital. Demographic items elicited the type of shift worked, while the Work Environment Scale and the General Health Questionnaire measured organizational climate and health respectively. Analysis supported the hypotheses that different organizational climates occurred across different shifts, and that different organizational climate factors predicted poor health outcomes. Shift work alone was not found to predict health outcomes. Specifically, permanent night shift workers had significantly lower coworker cohesion scores compared with rotating day and evening shift workers and significantly higher managerial control scores compared with day shift workers. Further, coworker cohesion and involvement were found to be significant predictors of somatic problems. These findings suggest that differences in organizational climate between shifts accounts for the variation in health outcomes associated with shift work. Therefore, increased workplace cohesion and involvement, and decreased work pressure, may mitigate the negative health outcomes of shift workers. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Food Crops Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, E.; Huybers, P.

2009-12-01

Projections of future climate show a warming world and heterogeneous changes in precipitation. Generally, warming temperatures indicate a decrease in crop yields where they are currently grown. However, warmer climate will also open up new areas at high latitudes for crop production. Thus, there is a question whether the warmer climate with decreased yields but potentially increased growing area will produce a net increase or decrease of overall food crop production. We explore this question through a multiple linear regression model linking temperature and precipitation to crop yield. Prior studies have emphasised temporal regression which indicate uniformly decreased yields, but neglect the potentially increased area opened up for crop production. This study provides a compliment to the prior work by exploring this spatial variation. We explore this subject with a multiple linear regression model from temperature, precipitation and crop yield data over the United States. The United States was chosen as the training region for the model because there are good crop data available over the same time frame as climate data and presumably the yield from crops in the United States is optimized with respect to potential yield. We study corn, soybeans, sorghum, hard red winter wheat and soft red winter wheat using monthly averages of temperature and precipitation from NCEP reanalysis and yearly yield data from the National Agriculture Statistics Service for 1948-2008. The use of monthly averaged temperature and precipitation, which neglect extreme events that can have a significant impact on crops limits this study as does the exclusive use of United States agricultural data. The GFDL 2.1 model under a 720ppm CO2 scenario provides temperature and precipitation fields for 2040-2100 which are used to explore how the spatial regions available for crop production will change under these new conditions.

Climate-change adaptation on rangelands: Linking regional exposure with diverse adaptive capacity

Treesearch

David D. Briske; Linda A. Joyce; H. Wayne Polley; Joel R. Brown; Klaus Wolter; Jack A. Morgan; Bruce A. McCarl; Derek W. Bailey

2015-01-01

The ecological consequences of climate change are predicted to vary greatly throughout US rangelands. Projections show warming and drying in the southern Great Plains and the Southwest, warmer and drier summers with reduced winter snowpack in the Northwest, and warmer and wetter conditions in the northern Great Plains. Primarily through their combined effects on soil...

Climate change: Future rise in rain inequality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biasutti, Michela

2013-05-01

Rainfall disparities are expected to intensify in response to anthropogenic climate change. Model simulations suggest that wet regions and seasons will get wetter, and that a warmer equator will get wetter too.

Assessment of nurses' work climate at Alexandria Main University Hospital.

PubMed

Emam, Sanaa Abdel-aziz; Nabawy, Zeinab Mohamed; Mohamed, Azzaa Hassan; Sbeira, Walaa Hashem

2005-01-01

Work climate is indicative of how well the organization is realizing its full potential. An accurate assessment of work climate can identify the unnecessary obstacles to nurses interfering with their best performance. The present study aims to assess nurses' work climate at Alexandria Main University Hospital. The study sample included all nurses (N=400) who were working in inpatient medical and surgical units at the Alexandria Main University Hospital who were available at the time of data collection. A structured questionnaire was developed to assess nurses' perceptions regarding the dimensions of work climate. Data was collected by individual interview using the structured questionnaire. Results indicated that the highest percentages of nurses in medical and surgical units perceived that their work climate is characterized by good way of performance management, feeling of responsibility, warmth and supportive relationships, quality of communication, morale, organizational clarity and feeling of identity and belongness to the hospital. Nurses perceived that they are lacking work climate conducive to conflict resolution, participation in decision making, opportunity for training and development, fair rewards and recognition, calculated risks, sufficient resources, effective leadership and teamwork. There were no significant difference between nurses perceptions in medical and surgical units regarding all dimensions of work climate. The highest percentage of nurses in all units were satisfied only with the feeling of responsibility, way of performance management, and quality of communication. Conflict and identity were perceived as the most important areas that need improvement in the hospital. Based on the results recommendations were given to enhance work climate through designing compensation and recognition systems, and negotiate their requirements and accomplishment based on established standards and outcomes measures. Also, encouragement of and planning for

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Intermountain Region [Part 1

Treesearch

Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; Joanne J. Ho; Natalie Little; Linda A. Joyce

2018-01-01

The Intermountain Adaptation Partnership (IAP) identified climate change issues relevant to resource management on Federal lands in Nevada, Utah, southern Idaho, eastern California, and western Wyoming, and developed solutions intended to minimize negative effects of climate change and facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. U.S. Department of...

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Intermountain Region [Part 2

Treesearch

Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; Joanne J. Ho; Natalie Little; Linda A. Joyce

2018-01-01

The Intermountain Adaptation Partnership (IAP) identified climate change issues relevant to resource management on Federal lands in Nevada, Utah, southern Idaho, eastern California, and western Wyoming, and developed solutions intended to minimize negative effects of climate change and facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. U.S. Department of...

The role of climate change in interpreting historical variability

Treesearch

Constance I. Millar; Wallace B. Woolfenden

1999-01-01

Significant climate anomalies have characterized the last 1000 yr in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Two warm, dry periods of 150- and 200-yr duration occurred during AD 900-1350, which were followed by anomalously cold climates, known as the Little Ice Age, that lasted from AD 1400 to 1900. Climate in the last century has been significantly warmer. Regional biotic...

Energy metabolism and substrate utilization in low birth weight neonates under radiant warmers.

PubMed

Marks, K H; Nardis, E E; Momin, M N

1986-09-01

We evaluated the metabolic response to the thermal demands of an open radiant warmer device, as distinct from convection incubator, in 13 healthy premature infants (1.395 +/- 169 g, 28 +/- 12 days of age, mean +/- SD). Metabolic rate was 10% higher for infants under the radiant warmer than in the incubator (2.60 +/- 0.4 v 2.36 +/- 0.3 kcal/kg/h; P less than .05). The radiant warmer also induced a small (4%), but significant, increase in nonprotein respiratory quotient (0.94 +/- 0.1 v 0.90 +/- 0.1; P less than .05) and a 13% increase in carbon dioxide production (8.26 +/- 1.1 v 7.31 +/- 1.1 mL/kg/min; P less than .05). Subcutaneous fat accumulation (estimated from 60-second skin-fold thickness measurements) was greater under the radiant warmer than in the incubator (0.08 +/- 0.05 v 0.04 +/- 0.04 mm/d; P less than .05). Under the warmer, the infant's mean skin temperatures and core temperatures were normal and similar to those found in the incubator, but the foot temperature was on average 0.6 degrees C cooler. The average rate of weight gain (18 g/kg/d) was the same in the radiant environment. The pattern of the elevated metabolic rate, shift of respiratory quotient coupled with the accumulation of subcutaneous fat, and cool extremities of infants under the radiant warmer may represent a physiologic adaptive response to thermal stress. However, the reasons for the elevated metabolic rate are unclear, because activation of the sympathetic nervous system with the release of catecholamines is not apparently involved.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Changing climate shifts timing of European floods.

PubMed

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A P; Merz, Bruno; Arheimer, Berit; Aronica, Giuseppe T; Bilibashi, Ardian; Bonacci, Ognjen; Borga, Marco; Čanjevac, Ivan; Castellarin, Attilio; Chirico, Giovanni B; Claps, Pierluigi; Fiala, Károly; Frolova, Natalia; Gorbachova, Liudmyla; Gül, Ali; Hannaford, Jamie; Harrigan, Shaun; Kireeva, Maria; Kiss, Andrea; Kjeldsen, Thomas R; Kohnová, Silvia; Koskela, Jarkko J; Ledvinka, Ondrej; Macdonald, Neil; Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria; Mediero, Luis; Merz, Ralf; Molnar, Peter; Montanari, Alberto; Murphy, Conor; Osuch, Marzena; Ovcharuk, Valeryia; Radevski, Ivan; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José L; Sauquet, Eric; Šraj, Mojca; Szolgay, Jan; Viglione, Alberto; Volpi, Elena; Wilson, Donna; Zaimi, Klodian; Živković, Nenad

2017-08-11

A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Mixed precipitation occurrences over southern Québec, Canada, under warmer climate conditions using a regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matte, Dominic; Thériault, Julie M.; Laprise, René

2018-05-01

Winter weather events with temperatures near 0°C are often associated with freezing rain. They can have major impacts on the society by causing power outages and disruptions to the transportation networks. Despite the catastrophic consequences of freezing rain, very few studies have investigated how their occurrences could evolve under climate change. This study aims to investigate the change of freezing rain and ice pellets over southern Québec using regional climate modeling at high resolution. The fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model with climate scenario RCP 8.5 at 0.11° grid mesh was used. The precipitation types such as freezing rain, ice pellets or their combination are diagnosed using five methods (Cantin and Bachand, Bourgouin, Ramer, Czys and, Baldwin). The occurrences of the diagnosed precipitation types for the recent past (1980-2009) are found to be comparable to observations. The projections for the future scenario (2070-2099) suggested a general decrease in the occurrences of mixed precipitation over southern Québec from October to April. This is mainly due to a decrease in long-duration events (≥6 h ). Overall, this study contributes to better understand how the distribution of freezing rain and ice pellets might change in the future using high-resolution regional climate model.

Western forest, fire risk, and climate change

Treesearch

Valerie Rapp

2004-01-01

Climate warming may first show up in forests as increased growth, which occurs as warmer temperatures, increased carbon dioxide, and more precipitation encourage higher rates of photosynthesis. The second way that climate change may show up in forests is through changes in disturbance regimes—the long-term patterns of fire, drought, insects, and diseases that are basic...

Western forests, fire risk, and climate change.

Treesearch

Valerie Rapp

2004-01-01

Climate warming may first show up in forests as increased growth, which occurs as warmer temperatures, increased carbon dioxide, and more precipitation encourage higher rates of photosynthesis. The second way that climate change may show up in forests is through changes in disturbance regimes—the long-term patterns of fire, drought, insects, and diseases that are basic...

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Northern Rocky Mountains [Part 2

Treesearch

Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; S. Karen Dante-Wood; Linh Hoang; Joanne J. Ho; Linda A. Joyce

2018-01-01

The Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership (NRAP) identified climate change issues relevant to resource management in the Northern Rockies (USA) region, and developed solutions intended to minimize negative effects of climate change and facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. The NRAP region covers 183 million acres, spanning northern Idaho,...

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Northern Rocky Mountains [Part 1

Treesearch

Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; S. Karen Dante-Wood; Linh Hoang; Joanne J. Ho; Linda A. Joyce

2018-01-01

The Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership (NRAP) identified climate change issues relevant to resource management in the Northern Rockies (USA) region, and developed solutions intended to minimize negative effects of climate change and facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. The NRAP region covers 183 million acres, spanning northern Idaho,...

Quantifying impacts of historical climate change in American River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sultana, R.

2017-12-01

There is a near consensus among scientists that climate has been changing for the last few decades in different parts of the world. Some regions are already experiencing the impacts of these changes. Warmer climate can alter the hydrology and water resources around the globe. Historical data shows the temperature has been rising in California and affecting California's water resource by reducing snowfall and snowmelt runoff during spring season. In this study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to simulate the historical climate in American River basin, a mountainous watershed in California. The results show that warmer climate in the recent decades (1995-2014) have already have affected streamflow characteristics of the watershed. Compared to the 1965-1974, the mean annual streamflow has decreased more than 6% and the peak streamflow has shifted from May to April. Understanding the changes will assist the water resource managers with valuable insight on the effectiveness of mitigation strategies considered as of now.

Changing climate, changing forests: The impacts of climate change on forests of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada

Treesearch

Lindsey Rustad; John Campbell; Jeffrey S. Dukes; Thomas Huntington; Kathy Fallon Lambert; Jacqueline Mohan; Nicholas Rodenhouse

2012-01-01

Decades of study on climatic change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems provide important insights for forest science, management, and policy. A synthesis of recent research from the northeastern United States and eastern Canada shows that the climate of the region has become warmer and wetter over the past 100 years and that there are more extreme...

Comparison of the performance of battery-operated fluid warmers.

PubMed

Lehavi, Amit; Yitzhak, Avraham; Jarassy, Refael; Heizler, Rami; Katz, Yeshayahu Shai; Raz, Aeyal

2018-06-07

Warming intravenous fluids is essential to prevent hypothermia in patients with trauma, especially when large volumes are administered. Prehospital and transport settings require fluid warmers to be small, energy efficient and independent of external power supply. We compared the warming properties and resistance to flow of currently available battery-operated fluid warmers. Fluid warming was evaluated at 50, 100 and 200 mL/min at a constant input temperature of 20°C and 10°C using a cardiopulmonary bypass roller pump and cooler. Output temperature was continuously recorded. Performance of fluid warmers varied with flows and input temperatures. At an input temperature of 20°C and flow of 50 mL/min, the Buddy Lite, enFlow, Thermal Angel and Warrior warmed 3.4, 2.4, 1 and 3.6 L to over 35°C, respectively. However, at an input temperature of 10°C and flow of 200 mL/min, the Buddy Lite failed to warm, the enFlow warmed 3.3 L to 25.7°C, the Thermal Angel warmed 1.5 L to 20.9°C and the Warrior warmed 3.4 L to 34.4°C (p<0.0001). We found significant differences between the fluid warmers: the use of the Buddy Lite should be limited to moderate input temperature and low flow rates. The use of the Thermal Angel is limited to low volumes due to battery capacity and low output temperature at extreme conditions. The Warrior provides the best warming performance at high infusion rates, as well as low input temperatures, and was able to warm the largest volumes in these conditions. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Associations among Work and Family Health Climate, Health Behaviors, Work Schedule and Body Weight

PubMed Central

Buden, Jennifer C.; Dugan, Alicia G.; Faghri, Pouran D.; Huedo-Medina, Tania B.; Namazi, Sara; Cherniack, Martin G.

2017-01-01

Objectives Correctional employees exhibit elevated obesity rates. This study examines interrelations among health behaviors, health climate, BMI, and work schedule. Methods Using survey results from correctional supervisors (n=157), mediation and moderated-mediation analyses were performed to examine how health behaviors explain relationships between obesity, work health climate (WHC) and family health climate (FHC), and work schedule. Results Over 85% of the sample was overweight/obese (mean BMI=30.20). Higher WHC and FHC were associated with lower BMI, mediated by nutrition and physical activity. The interaction effect between health behavior and work schedule revealed a protective effect on BMI. Overtime shiftwork may share a relationship with BMI. Conclusions Findings may have implications for reexamining organizational policies on maximum weekly overtime in corrections. They provide direction for targeted obesity interventions that encourage a supportive FHC and promote healthy behaviors among supervisors working overtime. PMID:28471768

The Ancient Martian Climate System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, Robert M.

2014-01-01

Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. The atmosphere is thin and liquid water is not stable. But there is evidence that very early in its history it was warmer and wetter. Since Mariner 9 first detected fluvial features on its ancient terrains researchers have been trying to understand what climatic conditions could have permitted liquid water to flow on the surface. Though the evidence is compelling, the problem is not yet solved. The main issue is coping with the faint young sun. During the period when warmer conditions prevailed 3.5-3.8 Gy the sun's luminosity was approximately 25% less than it is today. How can we explain the presence of liquid water on the surface of Mars under such conditions? A similar problem exists for Earth, which would have frozen over under a faint sun even though the evidence suggests otherwise. Attempts to solve the "Faint Young Sun Paradox" rely on greenhouse warming from an atmosphere with a different mass and composition than we see today. This is true for both Mars and Earth. However, it is not a straightforward solution. Any greenhouse theory must (a) produce the warming and rainfall needed, (b) have a plausible source for the gases required, (c) be sustainable, and (d) explain how the atmosphere evolved to its present state. These are challenging requirements and judging from the literature they have yet to be met. In this talk I will review the large and growing body of work on the early Mars climate system. I will take a holistic approach that involves many disciplines since our goal is to present an integrated view that touches on each of the requirements listed in the preceding paragraph. I will begin with the observational evidence, which comes from the geology, mineralogy, and isotopic data. Each of the data sets presents a consistent picture of a warmer and wetter past with a thicker atmosphere. How much warmer and wetter and how much thicker is a matter of debate, but conditions then were certainly different than

Impact of warmer weather on electricity sector emissions due to building energy use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, Paul; Holloway, Tracey; Patz, Jonathan; Harkey, Monica; Ahl, Doug; Abel, David; Schuetter, Scott; Hackel, Scott

2017-06-01

Most US energy consumption occurs in buildings, with cooling demands anticipated to increase net building electricity use under warmer conditions. The electricity generation units that respond to this demand are major contributors to sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), both of which have direct impacts on public health, and contribute to the formation of secondary pollutants including ozone and fine particulate matter. This study quantifies temperature-driven changes in power plant emissions due to increased use of building air conditioning. We compare an ambient temperature baseline for the Eastern US to a model-calculated mid-century scenario with summer-average temperature increases ranging from 1 C to 5 C across the domain. We find a 7% increase in summer electricity demand and a 32% increase in non-coincident peak demand. Power sector modeling, assuming only limited changes to current generation resources, calculated a 16% increase in emissions of NOx and an 18% increase in emissions of SO2. There is a high level of regional variance in the response of building energy use to climate, and the response of emissions to associated demand. The East North Central census region exhibited the greatest sensitivity of energy demand and associated emissions to climate.

Comparison of injury incidences between football teams playing in different climatic regions

PubMed Central

Orchard, John W; Waldén, Markus; Hägglund, Martin; Orchard, Jessica J; Chivers, Ian; Seward, Hugh; Ekstrand, Jan

2013-01-01

Australian Football League (AFL) teams in northern (warmer) areas generally have higher rates of injury than those in southern (cooler) areas. Conversely, in soccer (football) in Europe, teams in northern (cooler) areas have higher rates of injury than those in southern (warmer) areas, with an exception being knee anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries, which are more common in the southern (warmer) parts of Europe. This study examined relative injury incidence in the AFL comparing 9,477 injuries over 229,827 player-weeks from 1999–2012. There was a slightly higher injury incidence for teams from warmer parts of Australia (relative risk [RR] 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01–1.10) with quadriceps strains (RR 1.32, 95% CI 1.10–1.58), knee cartilage injuries (RR 1.42, 95% CI 1.16–1.74), and ankle sprains (RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.00–1.37) all being more likely in warmer region teams. Achilles injuries followed a reverse pattern, tending to be more common in cooler region teams (RR 0.70, 95% CI 0.47–1.03). In conclusion, common findings from the AFL and European soccer are that ankle sprains and ACL injuries are generally more likely in teams playing in warmer climate zones, whereas Achilles tendinopathy may be more likely in teams playing in cooler zones. These injuries may have climate or surface risk factors (possibly related to types and structure of grass and shoe-surface traction) that are universal across different football codes. PMID:24379731

Winter and spring climatic conditions influence timing and synchrony of calving in reindeer.

PubMed

Paoli, Amélie; Weladji, Robert B; Holand, Øystein; Kumpula, Jouko

2018-01-01

In a context of climate change, a mismatch has been shown to occur between some species' reproductive phenology and their environment. So far, few studies have either documented temporal trends in calving phenology or assessed which climatic variables influence the calving phenology in ungulate species, yet the phenology of ungulates' births affects offspring survival and population's recruitment rate. Using a long-term dataset (45 years) of birth dates of a semi-domesticated reindeer population in Kaamanen, North Finland, we show that calving season has advanced by ~ 7 days between 1970 and 2016. Advanced birth dates were associated with lower precipitation and a reduced snow cover in April and warmer temperatures in April-May. Improved females' physical condition in late gestation due to warmer temperatures in April-May and reduced snow conditions in April probably accounted for such advance in calving date. On the other hand, a lengthening of the calving season was reported following a warmer temperature in January, a higher number of days when mean temperature exceeds 0°C in October-November and a decreasing snow cover from October to November. By affecting the inter-individual heterogeneity in the plastic response of females' calving date to better climatic conditions in fall and winter, climatic variability contributed to weaken the calving synchrony in this herd. Whether variability in climatic conditions form environmental cues for the adaptation of calving phenology by females to climate change is however uncertain, but it is likely. As such this study enhances our understanding on how reproductive phenology of ungulate species would be affected by climate change.

Impact of climate change on cold hardiness of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii): environmental and genetic considerations.

PubMed

Bansal, Sheel; St Clair, J Bradley; Harrington, Constance A; Gould, Peter J

2015-10-01

hardiness, and seed-source movement from warmer to cooler climates may be a viable option for adapting coniferous forest to future climate. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Warm climates of the past—a lesson for the future?

PubMed Central

Lunt, D. J.; Elderfield, H.; Pancost, R.; Ridgwell, A.; Foster, G. L.; Haywood, A.; Kiehl, J.; Sagoo, N.; Shields, C.; Stone, E. J.; Valdes, P.

2013-01-01

This Discussion Meeting Issue of the Philosophical Transactions A had its genesis in a Discussion Meeting of the Royal Society which took place on 10–11 October 2011. The Discussion Meeting, entitled ‘Warm climates of the past: a lesson for the future?’, brought together 16 eminent international speakers from the field of palaeoclimate, and was attended by over 280 scientists and members of the public. Many of the speakers have contributed to the papers compiled in this Discussion Meeting Issue. The papers summarize the talks at the meeting, and present further or related work. This Discussion Meeting Issue asks to what extent information gleaned from the study of past climates can aid our understanding of future climate change. Climate change is currently an issue at the forefront of environmental science, and also has important sociological and political implications. Most future predictions are carried out by complex numerical models; however, these models cannot be rigorously tested for scenarios outside of the modern, without making use of past climate data. Furthermore, past climate data can inform our understanding of how the Earth system operates, and can provide important contextual information related to environmental change. All past time periods can be useful in this context; here, we focus on past climates that were warmer than the modern climate, as these are likely to be the most similar to the future. This introductory paper is not meant as a comprehensive overview of all work in this field. Instead, it gives an introduction to the important issues therein, using the papers in this Discussion Meeting Issue, and other works from all the Discussion Meeting speakers, as exemplars of the various ways in which past climates can inform projections of future climate. Furthermore, we present new work that uses a palaeo constraint to quantitatively inform projections of future equilibrium ice sheet change. PMID:24043873

Warm climates of the past--a lesson for the future?

PubMed

Lunt, D J; Elderfield, H; Pancost, R; Ridgwell, A; Foster, G L; Haywood, A; Kiehl, J; Sagoo, N; Shields, C; Stone, E J; Valdes, P

2013-10-28

This Discussion Meeting Issue of the Philosophical Transactions A had its genesis in a Discussion Meeting of the Royal Society which took place on 10-11 October 2011. The Discussion Meeting, entitled 'Warm climates of the past: a lesson for the future?', brought together 16 eminent international speakers from the field of palaeoclimate, and was attended by over 280 scientists and members of the public. Many of the speakers have contributed to the papers compiled in this Discussion Meeting Issue. The papers summarize the talks at the meeting, and present further or related work. This Discussion Meeting Issue asks to what extent information gleaned from the study of past climates can aid our understanding of future climate change. Climate change is currently an issue at the forefront of environmental science, and also has important sociological and political implications. Most future predictions are carried out by complex numerical models; however, these models cannot be rigorously tested for scenarios outside of the modern, without making use of past climate data. Furthermore, past climate data can inform our understanding of how the Earth system operates, and can provide important contextual information related to environmental change. All past time periods can be useful in this context; here, we focus on past climates that were warmer than the modern climate, as these are likely to be the most similar to the future. This introductory paper is not meant as a comprehensive overview of all work in this field. Instead, it gives an introduction to the important issues therein, using the papers in this Discussion Meeting Issue, and other works from all the Discussion Meeting speakers, as exemplars of the various ways in which past climates can inform projections of future climate. Furthermore, we present new work that uses a palaeo constraint to quantitatively inform projections of future equilibrium ice sheet change.

Warm and touching tears: tearful individuals are perceived as warmer because we assume they feel moved and touched.

PubMed

Zickfeld, Janis H; Schubert, Thomas W

2018-01-31

Recent work investigated the inter-individual functions of emotional tears in depth. In one study (Van de Ven, N., Meijs, M. H. J., & Vingerhoets, A. (2017). What emotional tears convey: Tearful individuals are seen as warmer, but also as less competent. British Journal of Social Psychology, 56(1), 146-160. Https://doi.org/10.1111/bjso.12162) tearful individuals were rated as warmer, and participants expressed more intentions to approach and help such individuals. Simultaneously, tearful individuals were rated as less competent, and participants expressed less intention to work with the depicted targets. While tearful individuals were perceived as sadder, perceived sadness mediated only the effect on competence, but not on warmth. We argue that tearful individuals might be perceived as warm because they are perceived as feeling moved and touched. We ran a pre-registered extended replication of Van de Ven et al. Results replicate the warmth and helping findings, but not the competence and work effects. The increase in warmth ratings was completely mediated by perceiving feeling moved and touched. Possible functions of feeling moved and touched with regard to emotional tears are discussed.

Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baatsen, Michiel; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Van Delden, Aarnout J.; de Vries, Hylke

2015-08-01

Simulations with a very high resolution (~25 km) global climate model indicate that more severe Autumn storms will impact Europe in a warmer future climate. The observed increase is mainly attributed to storms with a tropical origin, especially in the later part of the twentyfirst century. As their genesis region expands, tropical cyclones become more intense and their chances of reaching Europe increase. This paper investigates the properties and evolution of such storms and clarifies the future changes. The studied tropical cyclones feature a typical evolution of tropical development, extratropical transition and a re-intensification. A reduction of the transit area between regions of tropical and extratropical cyclogenesis increases the probability of re-intensification. Many of the modelled storms exhibit hybrid properties in a considerable part of their life cycle during which they exhibit the hazards of both tropical and extratropical systems. In addition to tropical cyclones, other systems such as cold core extratropical storms mainly originating over the Gulf Stream region also increasingly impact Western Europe. Despite their different history, all of the studied storms have one striking similarity: they form a warm seclusion. The structure, intensity and frequency of storms in the present climate are compared to observations using the MERRA and IBTrACS datasets. Damaging winds associated with the occurrence of a sting jet are observed in a large fraction of the cyclones during their final stage. Baroclinic instability is of great importance for the (re-)intensification of the storms. Furthermore, so-called atmospheric rivers providing tropical air prove to be vital for the intensification through diabatic heating and will increase considerably in strength in the future, as will the associated flooding risks.

Forced-Air Warmers and Surgical Site Infections in Patients Undergoing Knee or Hip Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Austin, Paul N

2017-01-01

The majority of the evidence indicates preventing inadvertent perioperative hypothermia reduces the incidence of many perioperative complications. Among the results of inadvertent perioperative hypothermia are increased bleeding, myocardial events, impaired wound healing, and diminished renal function. Most researchers agree there is an increased incidence of surgical site infections in patients who experience inadvertent perioperative hypothermia. Forced-air warming is effective in preventing inadvertent perioperative hypothermia. Paradoxically, forced-air warmers have been implicated in causing surgical site infections in patients undergoing total knee or hip arthroplasty. The results of investigations suggest these devices harbor pathogens and cause unwanted airflow disturbances. However, no significant increases in bacterial counts were found when forced-air warmers were used according to the manufacturer's directions. The results of one study suggested the incidence of surgical site infections in patients undergoing total joint arthroplasty was increased when using a forced-air warmer. However these researchers did not control for other factors affecting the incidence of surgical site infections in these patients. Current evidence does not support forced-air warmers causing surgical site infections in patients undergoing total knee or hip arthroplasty. Clinicians must use and maintain these devices as per the manufacturer's directions. They may consider using alternative warming methods. Well-conducted studies are needed to help determine the role of forced-air warmers in causing infections in these patients.

Warmer, deeper, and greener mixed layers in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre over the last 50 years.

PubMed

Martinez, Elodie; Raitsos, Dionysios E; Antoine, David

2016-02-01

Shifts in global climate resonate in plankton dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, and marine food webs. We studied these linkages in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASG), which hosts extensive phytoplankton blooms. We show that phytoplankton abundance increased since the 1960s in parallel to a deepening of the mixed layer and a strengthening of winds and heat losses from the ocean, as driven by the low frequency of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In parallel to these bottom-up processes, the top-down control of phytoplankton by copepods decreased over the same time period in the western NASG, following sea surface temperature changes typical of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). While previous studies have hypothesized that climate-driven warming would facilitate seasonal stratification of surface waters and long-term phytoplankton increase in subpolar regions, here we show that deeper mixed layers in the NASG can be warmer and host a higher phytoplankton biomass. These results emphasize that different modes of climate variability regulate bottom-up (NAO control) and top-down (AMO control) forcing on phytoplankton at decadal timescales. As a consequence, different relationships between phytoplankton, zooplankton, and their physical environment appear subject to the disparate temporal scale of the observations (seasonal, interannual, or decadal). The prediction of phytoplankton response to climate change should be built upon what is learnt from observations at the longest timescales. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia

PubMed Central

Camarero, J. Julio; Carrer, Marco; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Alla, Arben Q.; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Hevia, Andrea; Koutavas, Athanasios; Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet; Nola, Paola; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Pasho, Edmond; Toromani, Ervin

2017-01-01

Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950–2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells. PMID:29109266

Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia.

PubMed

Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Camarero, J Julio; Carrer, Marco; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Alla, Arben Q; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Hevia, Andrea; Koutavas, Athanasios; Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet; Nola, Paola; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Pasho, Edmond; Toromani, Ervin; Carreira, José A; Linares, Juan C

2017-11-21

Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950-2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells.

Novel competitors shape species' responses to climate change.

PubMed

Alexander, Jake M; Diez, Jeffrey M; Levine, Jonathan M

2015-09-24

Understanding how species respond to climate change is critical for forecasting the future dynamics and distribution of pests, diseases and biological diversity. Although ecologists have long acknowledged species' direct physiological and demographic responses to climate, more recent work suggests that these direct responses can be overwhelmed by indirect effects mediated via other interacting community members. Theory suggests that some of the most dramatic impacts of community change will probably arise through the assembly of novel species combinations after asynchronous migrations with climate. Empirical tests of this prediction are rare, as existing work focuses on the effects of changing interactions between competitors that co-occur today. To explore how species' responses to climate warming depend on how their competitors migrate to track climate, we transplanted alpine plant species and intact plant communities along a climate gradient in the Swiss Alps. Here we show that when alpine plants were transplanted to warmer climates to simulate a migration failure, their performance was strongly reduced by novel competitors that could migrate upwards from lower elevation; these effects generally exceeded the impact of warming on competition with current competitors. In contrast, when we grew the focal plants under their current climate to simulate climate tracking, a shift in the competitive environment to novel high-elevation competitors had little to no effect. This asymmetry in the importance of changing competitor identity at the leading versus trailing range edges is best explained by the degree of functional similarity between current and novel competitors. We conclude that accounting for novel competitive interactions may be essential to predict species' responses to climate change accurately.

Pressure Infusion Cuff and Blood Warmer during Massive Transfusion: An Experimental Study About Hemolysis and Hypothermia.

PubMed

Poder, Thomas G; Pruneau, Denise; Dorval, Josée; Thibault, Louis; Fisette, Jean-François; Bédard, Suzanne K; Jacques, Annie; Beauregard, Patrice

2016-01-01

Blood warmers were developed to reduce the risk of hypothermia associated with the infusion of cold blood products. During massive transfusion, these devices are used with compression sleeve, which induce a major stress to red blood cells. In this setting, the combination of blood warmer and compression sleeve could generate hemolysis and harm the patient. We conducted this study to compare the impact of different pressure rates on the hemolysis of packed red blood cells and on the outlet temperature when a blood warmer set at 41.5°C is used. Pressure rates tested were 150 and 300 mmHg. Ten packed red blood cells units were provided by Héma-Québec and each unit was sequentially tested. We found no increase in hemolysis either at 150 or 300 mmHg. By cons, we found that the blood warmer was not effective at warming the red blood cells at the specified temperature. At 150 mmHg, the outlet temperature reached 37.1°C and at 300 mmHg, the temperature was 33.7°C. To use a blood warmer set at 41.5°C in conjunction with a compression sleeve at 150 or 300 mmHg does not generate hemolysis. At 300 mmHg a blood warmer set at 41.5°C does not totally avoid a risk of hypothermia.

Winter and spring climatic conditions influence timing and synchrony of calving in reindeer

PubMed Central

Paoli, Amélie; Holand, Øystein; Kumpula, Jouko

2018-01-01

In a context of climate change, a mismatch has been shown to occur between some species’ reproductive phenology and their environment. So far, few studies have either documented temporal trends in calving phenology or assessed which climatic variables influence the calving phenology in ungulate species, yet the phenology of ungulates’ births affects offspring survival and population’s recruitment rate. Using a long-term dataset (45 years) of birth dates of a semi-domesticated reindeer population in Kaamanen, North Finland, we show that calving season has advanced by ~ 7 days between 1970 and 2016. Advanced birth dates were associated with lower precipitation and a reduced snow cover in April and warmer temperatures in April-May. Improved females’ physical condition in late gestation due to warmer temperatures in April-May and reduced snow conditions in April probably accounted for such advance in calving date. On the other hand, a lengthening of the calving season was reported following a warmer temperature in January, a higher number of days when mean temperature exceeds 0°C in October-November and a decreasing snow cover from October to November. By affecting the inter-individual heterogeneity in the plastic response of females’ calving date to better climatic conditions in fall and winter, climatic variability contributed to weaken the calving synchrony in this herd. Whether variability in climatic conditions form environmental cues for the adaptation of calving phenology by females to climate change is however uncertain, but it is likely. As such this study enhances our understanding on how reproductive phenology of ungulate species would be affected by climate change. PMID:29694410

Something is wrong with climate theory.

PubMed

Walker, J C; Sloan, L C

1992-06-01

We frequently forget that there is more to science than the making of a more precise measurement or a more elaborate calculation. It is even more than applying to new problems the methods that worked on old problems. These activities, which keep most of us busy most of the time, are important, but the new and unexpected discoveries are more important. And many radically new discoveries arise from scientific puzzles, the "anomalies." We believe that studies of past climates have exposed an anomaly that deserves attention and that may result in a fundamentally new understanding of the climate system. The poles have been much warmer throughout much of Earth's history than they are now. Ice-age episodes with durations of millions of years have been separated by periods of hundreds of millions of years that have left little or no evidence of polar ice sheets. The data are best for the most recent of these ice-free episodes so we will concentrate on the Eocene.

Experimental Study of Isothermal Plate Uniformity for Blood Warmer Development using Geothermal Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendrarsakti, J.; Ichsan, Y.

2016-09-01

This research was conducted to assess the direct use of geothermal energy for blood warmer. The heating plate was made form aluminium plates with dimensions of 100 x 200 mm and then fed from the hot water heater. Tests were conducted in the laboratory where geothermal source water is replaced with the heat generated from the heater. The hot water from the heater in the temperature range 55°C - 60°C flowed into vertical chamber. Setting the temperature of the hot water heater is done by changing the flow of hot water coming out of the heater. Results showed that the value of a standard deviation of plate temperature was about 0.42 °C, so it can be said isothermal accordance with design requirement and objective. The test data used for the analysis of the manufacture of the heating plate in the blood warmer to regulate the discharge of hot water at intervals of 21.47 mL/s to 24.8 mL/s to obtain a temperature of 37.20 °C - 40.15 °C. Geothermal energy has the potential for blood warmer because blood warmer is part of the energy cascade in a temperature range of 40°C to 60°C

Climate change and bird reproduction: warmer springs benefit breeding success in boreal forest grouse.

PubMed

Wegge, Per; Rolstad, Jørund

2017-11-15

Global warming is predicted to adversely affect the reproduction of birds, especially in northern latitudes. A recent study in Finland inferred that declining populations of black grouse, Tetrao tetrix , could be attributed to advancement of the time of mating and chicks hatching too early-supporting the mismatch hypothesis. Here, we examine the breeding success of sympatric capercaillie, T. urogallus, and black grouse over a 38-year period in southeast Norway. Breeding season temperatures increased, being most pronounced in April. Although the onset of spring advanced nearly three weeks, the peak of mating advanced only 4-5 days. In contrast to the result of the Finnish study, breeding success increased markedly in both species (capercaillie: 62%, black grouse: 38%). Both brood frequency and brood size increased during the study period, but significantly so only for brood frequency in capercaillie. Whereas the frequency of capercaillie broods was positively affected by rising temperatures, especially during the pre-hatching period, this was not the case in black grouse. Brood size, on the other hand, increased with increasing post-hatching temperatures in both species. Contrary to the prediction that global warming will adversely affect reproduction in boreal forest grouse, our study shows that breeding success was enhanced in warmer springs. © 2017 The Authors.

Pressure Infusion Cuff and Blood Warmer during Massive Transfusion: An Experimental Study About Hemolysis and Hypothermia

PubMed Central

Pruneau, Denise; Dorval, Josée; Thibault, Louis; Fisette, Jean-François; Bédard, Suzanne K.; Jacques, Annie; Beauregard, Patrice

2016-01-01

Background Blood warmers were developed to reduce the risk of hypothermia associated with the infusion of cold blood products. During massive transfusion, these devices are used with compression sleeve, which induce a major stress to red blood cells. In this setting, the combination of blood warmer and compression sleeve could generate hemolysis and harm the patient. We conducted this study to compare the impact of different pressure rates on the hemolysis of packed red blood cells and on the outlet temperature when a blood warmer set at 41.5°C is used. Methods Pressure rates tested were 150 and 300 mmHg. Ten packed red blood cells units were provided by Héma-Québec and each unit was sequentially tested. Results We found no increase in hemolysis either at 150 or 300 mmHg. By cons, we found that the blood warmer was not effective at warming the red blood cells at the specified temperature. At 150 mmHg, the outlet temperature reached 37.1°C and at 300 mmHg, the temperature was 33.7°C. Conclusion To use a blood warmer set at 41.5°C in conjunction with a compression sleeve at 150 or 300 mmHg does not generate hemolysis. At 300 mmHg a blood warmer set at 41.5°C does not totally avoid a risk of hypothermia. PMID:27711116

Impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of Arctic oil spills.

PubMed

Nordam, Tor; Dunnebier, Dorien A E; Beegle-Krause, C J; Reed, Mark; Slagstad, Dag

2017-12-01

We investigated the effects of a warmer climate, and seasonal trends, on the fate of oil spilled in the Arctic. Three well blowout scenarios, two shipping accidents and a pipeline rupture were considered. We used ensembles of numerical simulations, using the OSCAR oil spill model, with environmental data for the periods 2009-2012 and 2050-2053 (representing a warmer future) as inputs to the model. Future atmospheric forcing was based on the IPCC's A1B scenario, with the ocean data generated by the hydrodynamic model SINMOD. We found differences in "typical" outcome of a spill in a warmer future compared to the present, mainly due to a longer season of open water. We have demonstrated that ice cover is extremely important for predicting the fate of an Arctic oil spill, and find that oil spills in a warming climate will in some cases result in greater areal coverage and shoreline exposure.

Climate effects on late-season flight times of Massachusetts butterflies.

PubMed

Zipf, L; Williams, E H; Primack, R B; Stichter, S

2017-09-01

Although the responses of living organisms to climate change are being widely investigated, little attention has been given to such effects late in the growing season. We studied the late-season flight times of 20 species of butterflies in a geographically limited region, the state of Massachusetts in the USA, by examining change in dates of flight over a 22-year period and in response to average monthly temperature and precipitation. By analyzing the last 10% of each year's observations reported by observers of the Massachusetts Butterfly Club, we found that seven species remain in flight significantly later into the fall than they did two decades earlier, while two species show reduced late-season flight. Life history characteristics of the species, particularly voltinism and average fall flight dates, influenced whether warmer fall months led to increases or decreases in fall flight. Warmer Novembers often led to later fall flight, and wetter Augusts usually extended fall flight. These results document the effects of climate on late-season flight times of butterflies, add to an understanding of how warmer autumn conditions alter the phenology of different butterfly species, and show the usefulness of citizen science data.

The combination of work organizational climate and individual work commitment predicts return to work in women but not in men.

PubMed

Holmgren, Kristina; Ekbladh, Elin; Hensing, Gunnel; Dellve, Lotta

2013-02-01

To analyze if the combination of organizational climate and work commitment can predict return to work (RTW). This prospective Swedish study was based on 2285 participants, 19 to 64 years old, consecutively selected from the employed population, newly sick-listed for more than 14 days. Data were collected in 2008 through postal questionnaire and from register data. Among women, the combination of good organizational climate and fair work commitment predicted an early RTW with an adjusted relative risk of 2.05 (1.32 to 3.18). Among men, none of the adjusted variables or combinations of variables was found significantly to predict RTW. This study demonstrated the importance of integrative effects of organizational climate and individual work commitment on RTW among women. These factors did not predict RTW in men. More research is needed to understand the RTW process among men.

Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities

PubMed Central

Diamond, Sarah E.; Nichols, Lauren M.; Pelini, Shannon L.; Penick, Clint A.; Barber, Grace W.; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Gotelli, Nicholas J.

2016-01-01

How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable. PMID:27819044

Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities.

PubMed

Diamond, Sarah E; Nichols, Lauren M; Pelini, Shannon L; Penick, Clint A; Barber, Grace W; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R; Ellison, Aaron M; Sanders, Nathan J; Gotelli, Nicholas J

2016-10-01

How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable.

Employer, use of personal protective equipment, and work safety climate: Latino poultry processing workers.

PubMed

Arcury, Thomas A; Grzywacz, Joseph G; Anderson, Andrea M; Mora, Dana C; Carrillo, Lourdes; Chen, Haiying; Quandt, Sara A

2013-02-01

This analysis describes the work safety climate of Latino poultry processing workers and notes differences by worker personal characteristics and employer; describes the use of common personal protective equipment (PPE) among workers; and examines the associations of work safety climate with use of common PPE. Data are from a cross-sectional study of 403 Latino poultry processing workers in western North Carolina. Work safety climate differed little by personal characteristics, but it did differ consistently by employer. Provision of PPE varied; for example, 27.2% of participants were provide with eye protection at no cost, 57.0% were provided with hand protection at no cost, and 84.7% were provided with protective clothing at no cost. PPE use varied by type. Provision of PPE at no cost was associated with lower work safety climate; this result was counter-intuitive. Consistent use of PPE was associated with higher work safety climate. Work safety climate is important for improving workplace safety for immigrant workers. Research among immigrant workers should document work safety climate for different employers and industries, and delineate how work safety climate affects safety behavior and injuries. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to the Atlantic Coast

Treesearch

Rachel Loehman; Greer Anderson

2009-01-01

Observed 20th century climate changes in the Atlantic Coast bioregion include warmer air and sea surface temperatures, increased winter precipitation (especially rainfall), and an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events. Climate change impacts during the century include phenological shifts in plant and animals species, such as earlier occurrence of lilac...

Leadership behaviour of nurse managers in relation to job satisfaction and work climate.

PubMed

Sellgren, Stina Fransson; Ekvall, Göran; Tomson, Göran

2008-07-01

This study examines how nurse managers' leadership behaviour relates to job satisfaction and a creative work climate. The nursing shortage is a challenge for managers all over the world. Leadership is a core element of management and it is important to elucidate leadership behaviour in order to increase knowledge about attracting and retaining talented staff. We studied 770 subordinates at a large university hospital. Three questionnaires for assessing perceived leadership behaviour, creative work climate and job satisfaction were used. Subordinates with a manager perceived as 'super' have the highest rates on job satisfaction. The correlation between leadership and creative work climate is stronger than between leadership and job satisfaction. Between job satisfaction and work climate the correlation is strong. The study shows that the relationship between a creative work climate and job satisfaction is strong. A managers' ability to lead has a major affect on work climate. Nurse managers must work on developing their leadership behaviour towards being an all-round leader that cares about people, is concerned about productivity and can handle changes. Support of ideas and initiatives are important in order to enable subordinates to perceive their work as challenging.

Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate.

PubMed

Neuner, Susanne; Albrecht, Axel; Cullmann, Dominik; Engels, Friedrich; Griess, Verena C; Hahn, W Andreas; Hanewinkel, Marc; Härtl, Fabian; Kölling, Christian; Staupendahl, Kai; Knoke, Thomas

2015-02-01

Shifts in tree species distributions caused by climatic change are expected to cause severe losses in the economic value of European forestland. However, this projection disregards potential adaptation options such as tree species conversion, shorter production periods, or establishment of mixed species forests. The effect of tree species mixture has, as yet, not been quantitatively investigated for its potential to mitigate future increases in production risks. For the first time, we use survival time analysis to assess the effects of climate, species mixture and soil condition on survival probabilities for Norway spruce and European beech. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models based on an extensive dataset of almost 65,000 trees from the European Forest Damage Survey (FDS)--part of the European-wide Level I monitoring network--predicted a 24% decrease in survival probability for Norway spruce in pure stands at age 120 when unfavorable changes in climate conditions were assumed. Increasing species admixture greatly reduced the negative effects of unfavorable climate conditions, resulting in a decline in survival probabilities of only 7%. We conclude that future studies of forest management under climate change as well as forest policy measures need to take this, as yet unconsidered, strongly advantageous effect of tree species mixture into account. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Challenges and Opportunities for Advancing Work on Climate Change and Public Health.

PubMed

Gould, Solange; Rudolph, Linda

2015-12-09

Climate change poses a major threat to public health. Strategies that address climate change have considerable potential to benefit health and decrease health inequities, yet public health engagement at the intersection of public health, equity, and climate change has been limited. This research seeks to understand the barriers to and opportunities for advancing work at this nexus. We conducted semi-structured in-depth interviews (N = 113) with public health and climate change professionals and thematic analysis. Barriers to public health engagement in addressing climate change include individual perceptions that climate change is not urgent or solvable and insufficient understanding of climate change's health impacts and programmatic connections. Institutional barriers include a lack of public health capacity, authority, and leadership; a narrow framework for public health practice that limits work on the root causes of climate change and health; and compartmentalization within and across sectors. Opportunities include integrating climate change into current public health practice; providing inter-sectoral support for climate solutions with health co-benefits; and using a health frame to engage and mobilize communities. Efforts to increase public health sector engagement should focus on education and communications, building leadership and funding, and increasing work on the shared root causes of climate change and health inequities.

Challenges and Opportunities for Advancing Work on Climate Change and Public Health

PubMed Central

Gould, Solange; Rudolph, Linda

2015-01-01

Climate change poses a major threat to public health. Strategies that address climate change have considerable potential to benefit health and decrease health inequities, yet public health engagement at the intersection of public health, equity, and climate change has been limited. This research seeks to understand the barriers to and opportunities for advancing work at this nexus. We conducted semi-structured in-depth interviews (N = 113) with public health and climate change professionals and thematic analysis. Barriers to public health engagement in addressing climate change include individual perceptions that climate change is not urgent or solvable and insufficient understanding of climate change’s health impacts and programmatic connections. Institutional barriers include a lack of public health capacity, authority, and leadership; a narrow framework for public health practice that limits work on the root causes of climate change and health; and compartmentalization within and across sectors. Opportunities include integrating climate change into current public health practice; providing inter-sectoral support for climate solutions with health co-benefits; and using a health frame to engage and mobilize communities. Efforts to increase public health sector engagement should focus on education and communications, building leadership and funding, and increasing work on the shared root causes of climate change and health inequities. PMID:26690194

Climate Change in Voyageurs National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seeley, M. W.

2011-12-01

Voyageurs National Park was created in 1975. This beautifully forested and lake-dominated landscape shared between Minnesota and Canada has few roads and must be seen by water. The islands and Kabetogama Peninsula are part of the Canadian Shield, some of the oldest exposed rock in the world. Voyageurs National Park boasts many unique landscape and climatic attributes, and like most mid-latitude regions of the northern hemisphere climate change is in play there. The statistical signals of change in the climate record are evident from both temperature and precipitation measurements. The history of these measurements goes back over 100 years. Additionally, studies and measurements of the lakes and general ecosystem already show some consequences of these climate changes. Mean temperature measurements are generally warmer than they once were, most notably in the winter season. Minimum temperatures have changed more than maximum temperatures. Precipitation has trended upward, but has also changed in character with greater frequency and contribution from thunderstorm rainfalls across the park. In addition variability in annual precipitation has become more amplified, as the disparity between wet and dry years has grown wider. Some changes are already in evidence in terms of bird migration patterns, earlier lake ice-out dates, warmer water temperatures with more algal blooms, decline in lake clarity, and somewhat longer frost-free seasons. Climate change will continue to have impacts on Voyageurs National Park, and likely other national parks across the nation. Furthermore scientists may find that the study, presentation, and discussion about climate impacts on our national parks is a particularly engaging way to educate citizens and improve climate literacy as we contemplate what adaptation and mitigation policies should be enacted to preserve the quality of our national parks for future generations.

Thermal perception thresholds among workers in a cold climate.

PubMed

Burström, Lage; Björ, Bodil; Nilsson, Tohr; Pettersson, Hans; Rödin, Ingemar; Wahlström, Jens

2017-10-01

To investigate whether exposure to cold could influence the thermal perception thresholds in a working population. This cross-sectional study was comprised of 251 males and females and was carried out at two mines in the northern part of Norway and Sweden. The testing included a baseline questionnaire, a clinical examination and measurements of thermal perception thresholds, on both hands, the index (Digit 2) and little (Digit 5) fingers, for heat and cold. The thermal perception thresholds were affected by age, gender and test site. The thresholds were impaired by experiences of frostbite in the fingers and the use of medication that potentially could affect neurosensory functions. No differences were found between the calculated normative values for these workers and those in other comparative investigations conducted in warmer climates. The study provided no support for the hypothesis that living and working in cold climate will lead to impaired thermal perception thresholds. Exposure to cold that had caused localized damage in the form of frostbite was shown to lead to impaired thermal perception.

Disaggregating from daily to sub-daily rainfall under a future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westra, S.; Evans, J.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

2012-04-01

We describe an algorithm for disaggregating daily rainfall into sub-daily rainfall 'fragments' (continuous fine-resolution rainfall sequences whose total depth sums to the daily rainfall amount) under a future, warmer climate. The basis of the algorithm is re-sample sub-daily fragments from the historical record conditional on the total daily rainfall amount and a range of atmospheric predictors representative of the future climate. The logic is that as the atmosphere warms, future rainfall patterns will be more reflective of historical rainfall patterns which occurred on warmer days at the same location, or at locations which have an atmospheric profile more reflective of expected future conditions. When looking at the scaling from daily to sub-daily rainfall over the historical record, it was found that the relationship varied significantly by season and by location, with rainfall patterns on warmer seasons or at warmer locations typically showing more intense rain falling over shorter periods compared with cooler seasons and stations. Importantly, by regressing against atmospheric covariates such as temperature this effect was almost entirely eliminated, providing a basis for suggesting the approach may be valid when extrapolating sub-daily sequences to a future climate. The method of fragments algorithm was then applied to nine stations around Australia, and showed that when holding the total daily rainfall constant, the maximum intensity of a short duration (6 minute) rainfall increased by between 4.1% and 13.4% per degree change in temperature for the maximum six minute burst, between 3.1% and 6.8% for the maximum one hour burst, and between 1.5% and 3.5% for the fraction of the day with no rainfall. This highlights that a large proportion of the change to the distribution of precipitation in the future is likely to occur at sub-daily timescales, with significant implications for many hydrological systems.

ARE LAKES GETTING WARMER? REMOTE SENSING OF LARGE LAKE TEMPERATURES

EPA Science Inventory

Recent studies (Levitus et al., 2000) suggest a warning of the world ocean over the past 50 years. Freshwater lakes could also be getting warmer but thermal measurements to determine this are lacking. Large lake temperatures are vertically and horizontally heterogeneous and vary ...

Adapting silviculture to a changing climate in the southern United States

Treesearch

James M. Guldin

2014-01-01

Questions about how forests might respond to climate change are often addressed through planning, prediction, and modeling at the landscape scale. A recent synthesis of climate-change impacts on forest management and policy found that the earth is warmer than it has been in the recent past, and that 11 of the last 12 years rank among the 12 warmest since 1850 (Solomon...

Response of high-elevation forests in the Olympic Mountains to climatic change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zolbrod, A.N.; Peterson, D.L.

1999-01-01

The gap model ZELIG was used to examine the effects of increased temperature (2°C) and altered precipitation on high-elevation ecosystems of the Olympic Mountains, Washington, U.S.A. Changes in tree species distribution and abundance, as well as stand biomass, were examined on north and south aspects in the dry northeast (NE) and wet southwest (SW) regions of the Olympics for (i) warmer, (ii) warmer and 20% wetter, and (iii) warmer and 20% drier climatic-change scenarios. Dominant tree species shift upwards 300-600 m in elevation in the SW, with subalpine meadows and Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carr. forests being replaced by Abies amabilis (Dougl.) Forbes forests at higher elevations and A. amabilis forests being replaced by Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg. forests at lower elevations. In the NE, drought-tolerant species become dominant approximately 200 m lower than present, with A. lasiocarpa dominating the north aspect and Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. the south aspect. Biomass increases in the SW and generally decreases in the NE, depending on aspect and precipitation regime. This study suggests that species and site-specific responses at mesoscale (e.g., wet vs. dry climatic regime) and microscale (e.g., north vs. south aspect) resolutions must be characterized to quantify the variation in potential effects of climatic change on forest vegetation in mountainous regions.

[Energy policy rather than climate policy].

PubMed

Kroonenberg, Salomon B

2009-01-01

Energy policy and climate policy are two different issues and should not be treated as if they were the same. Whether the climate gets warmer or colder, saving energy and developing sustainable forms of energy production remain of paramount importance because fossil hydrocarbons are likely to be exhausted soon. But climate policy is a fallacy: it is human arrogance to think we can control the climate by reducing emissions and by storing CO2 underground. In spite of rising CO2 levels, the climate has cooled down slightly over the past decade. Since the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) did not predict this, it is questionable whether they can reliably predict warming. Other factors such as solar activity are probably more important for climate than greenhouse gases. The danger of coupling energy policy to climate policy is evident: if the climate cools down, people will lose belief in the greenhouse effect and therefore also lose interest in saving energy.

Recent climate warming forces contrasting growth responses of white spruce at treeline in Alaska through temperature thresholds

Treesearch

Martin Wilmking; Glenn P. Juday; Valerie A. Barber; Harold S.J. Zald

2004-01-01

Northern and high-latitude alpine treelines are generally thought to be limited by available warmth. Most studies of tree-growth-climate interaction at treeline as well as climate reconstructions using dendrochronology report positive growth response of treeline trees to warmer temperatures. However, population-wide responses of treeline trees to climate remain largely...

Ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Climate Change Response Framework Project in northern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Louis Iverson; Linda Parker; David Mladenoff; Leslie Brandt; Patricia Butler; Matt St. Pierre; Anantha Prasad; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Dale Higgins; Avery Dorland

2011-01-01

The forests of northern Wisconsin will likely experience dramatic changes over the next 100 years as a result of climate change. This assessment evaluates key forest ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change across northern Wisconsin under a range of future climate scenarios. Warmer temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are expected to influence ecosystem...

The relationship between work climate and nurse educators' use of information technology.

PubMed

Gonen, Ayala; Lev-Ari, Lilac

2016-04-01

Understanding organizational behavior and the attitudes of individuals in organizations is crucial for policymakers and managers. Work climate is a major part of these constructs. The main goal of this study was to examine the perceptions of academic nurse educators about their work climate, concerning the use of information technology (IT), including examining a number of variables such as self-efficacy, innovativeness, attitudes, intention to use, and actual use of information technology. This study used a quantitative research design, using written and online surveys submitted to 109 academic nurse educators working at ten different academic nursing schools in Israel. The relationship between work climate and actual use of IT was mediated by personality characteristics such as attitude toward using IT, self-efficacy, and innovativeness. Work climate positively predicted both self-efficacy and attitudes toward IT, but did not directly predict innovativeness and did not predict actual use. Policymakers and managers should consider work climate and personality characteristics as important factors in their efforts to promote IT use in nursing. As a result, nurse educators would become better acquainted with new technologies, and their acceptance of IT would improve. The organization would benefit from a better work environment and from enhanced performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implications of climate change on wind erosion of agricultural lands in the Columbia Plateau

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change may impact soil health and productivity as a result of accelerated or decelerated rates of erosion. Previous studies suggest a greater risk of wind erosion on arid and semi-arid lands due to loss of biomass under a future warmer climate. There have been no studies conducted to assess ...

Climate change, vector-borne diseases and working population.

PubMed

Vonesch, Nicoletta; D'Ovidio, Maria Concetta; Melis, Paola; Remoli, Maria Elena; Ciufolini, Maria Grazia; Tomao, Paola

2016-01-01

Risks associated with climate change are increasing worldwide and the global effects include altered weather and precipitation patterns, rising temperatures and others; human health can be affected directly and indirectly. This paper is an overview of literature regarding climate changes, their interaction with vector-borne diseases and impact on working population. Articles regarding climate changes as drivers of vector-borne diseases and evidences of occupational cases have been picked up by public databank. Technical documents were also included in the study. Evidences regarding the impact of climate changes on vector-borne diseases in Europe, provided by the analysis of the literature, are presented. Climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases are likely to be emerging due to climate modifications, with impacts on public and occupational health. However, other environmental and anthropogenic drivers such as increasing travelling and trade, deforestation and reforestation, altered land use and urbanization can influence their spread. Further studies are necessary to better understand the phenomenon and implementation of adaptation strategies to protect human health should be accelerated and strengthened.

Working While in Middle School: Student Perceptions of School Climate & Connectedness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Sabrena

2016-01-01

Does working during the school year result in lowered perceptions of school climate and connectedness for middle school students? According to outcomes from a Rocky Mountain Region School District's (RMRSD) school climate survey, 20% of their middle school student population works during the school year. Existing literature on youth employment…

A risk assessment of climate change and the impact of forest diseases on forest ecosystems in the Western United States and Canada

Treesearch

John T. Kliejunas

2011-01-01

This risk assessment projects the effects of eight forest diseases under two climate-change scenarios (warmer and drier, warmer and wetter). Examples are used to describe how various types of forest diseases may respond to environmental changes. Forest diseases discussed in this report include foliar diseases, Phytophthora diseases, stem rusts,...

Response of northern hemisphere environmental and atmospheric conditions to climate changes using Greenland aerosol records from the Eemian to the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, H.

2017-12-01

The Northern Hemisphere experienced dramatic climate changes over the last glacial cycle, including vast ice sheet expansion and frequent abrupt climate events. Moreover, high northern latitudes during the last interglacial (Eemian) were warmer than today and may provide guidance for future climate change scenarios. However, little evidence exists regarding the environmental alterations connected to these climate changes. Using aerosol concentration records in decadal resolution from the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) over the last 128,000 years we extract quantitative information on environmental changes, including the first comparison of northern hemisphere environmental conditions between the warmer than present Eemian and the early Holocene. Separating source changes from transport effects, we find that changes in the ice concentration greatly overestimate the changes in atmospheric concentrations in the aerosol source region, the latter mirroring changes in aerosol emissions. Glacial times were characterized by a strong reduction in terrestrial biogenic emissions (only 10-20% of the early Holocene value) reflecting the net loss of vegetated area in mid to high latitudes, while rapid climate changes during the glacial had essentially no effect on terrestrial biogenic aerosol emissions. An increase in terrestrial dust emissions of approximately a factor of eight during peak glacial and cold stadial intervals indicates higher aridity and dust storm activity in Asian deserts. Glacial sea salt aerosol emissions increased only moderately (by approximately 50%), likely due to sea ice expansion, while marked stadial/interstadial variations in sea salt concentrations in the ice reflect mainly changes in wet deposition en route. Eemian ice contains lower aerosol concentrations than ice from the early Holocene, due to shortened atmospheric residence time during the warmer Eemian, suggesting that generally 2°C warmer climate in high northern latitudes did not

Bioaccumulation and elimination of mercury in juvenile seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) in a warmer environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maulvault, Ana Luísa, E-mail: aluisa@ipma.pt; Interdisciplinary Centre of Marine and Environmental Research; MARE – Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, Laboratório Marítimo da Guia, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Nossa Senhora do Cabo, 939, 2750-374 Cascais

Warming is an expected impact of climate change that will affect coastal areas in the future. These areas are also subjected to strong anthropogenic pressures leading to chemical contamination. Yet, the consequences of both factors for marine ecosystems, biota and consumers are still unknown. The present work aims to investigate, for the first time, the effect of temperature increase on bioaccumulation and elimination of mercury [(total mercury (THg) and methylmercury (MeHg)] in three tissues (muscle, liver, and brain) of a commercially important seafood species – European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax). Fish were exposed to the ambient temperature currently used in seabassmore » rearing (18 °C) and to the expected ocean warming (+4 °C, i.e. 22 °C), as well as dietary MeHg during 28 days, followed by a depuration period of 28 days fed with a control diet. In both temperature exposures, higher MeHg contents were observed in the brain, followed by the muscle and liver. Liver registered the highest elimination percentages (EF; up to 64% in the liver, 20% in the brain, and 3% in the muscle). Overall, the results clearly indicate that a warming environment promotes MeHg bioaccumulation in all tissues (e.g. highest levels in brain: 8.1 mg kg{sup −1} ww at 22 °C against 6.2 mg kg{sup −1} ww at 18 °C after 28 days of MeHg exposure) and hampers MeHg elimination (e.g. liver EF decreases after 28 days of depuration: from 64.2% at 18 °C to 50.3% at 22 °C). These findings suggest that seafood safety may be compromised in a warming context, particularly for seafood species with contaminant concentrations close to the current regulatory levels. Hence, results point out the need to strengthen research in this area and to revise and/or adapt the current recommendations regarding human exposure to chemical contaminants through seafood consumption, in order to integrate the expected effects of climate change. - Highlights: • Higher MeHg contents were found in the

Northeastern North America as a potential refugium for boreal forests in a warming climate.

PubMed

D'Orangeville, L; Duchesne, L; Houle, D; Kneeshaw, D; Côté, B; Pederson, N

2016-06-17

High precipitation in boreal northeastern North America could help forests withstand the expected temperature-driven increase in evaporative demand, but definitive evidence is lacking. Using a network of tree-ring collections from 16,450 stands across 583,000 km(2) of boreal forests in Québec, Canada, we observe a latitudinal shift in the correlation of black spruce growth with temperature and reduced precipitation, from negative south of 49°N to largely positive to the north of that latitude. Our results suggest that the positive effect of a warmer climate on growth rates and growing season length north of 49°N outweighs the potential negative effect of lower water availability. Unlike the central and western portions of the continent's boreal forest, northeastern North America may act as a climatic refugium in a warmer climate. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Vulnerabilities and adapting irrigated and rainfed cotton to climate change in the lower Mississippi Delta Region

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Overdependence on fossil fuels for human energy needs continues to emitpotential greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere leading to a warmer climate over the earth. Predicting the impacts of climate change (CC) on food and fiber production systems in the future is essential for divising adaptati...

Vegetation limits the impact of a warm climate on boreal wildfires.

PubMed

Girardin, Martin P; Ali, Adam A; Carcaillet, Christopher; Blarquez, Olivier; Hély, Christelle; Terrier, Aurélie; Genries, Aurélie; Bergeron, Yves

2013-09-01

Strategic introduction of less flammable broadleaf vegetation into landscapes was suggested as a management strategy for decreasing the risk of boreal wildfires projected under climatic change. However, the realization and strength of this offsetting effect in an actual environment remain to be demonstrated. Here we combined paleoecological data, global climate models and wildfire modelling to assess regional fire frequency (RegFF, i.e. the number of fires through time) in boreal forests as it relates to tree species composition and climate over millennial time-scales. Lacustrine charcoals from northern landscapes of eastern boreal Canada indicate that RegFF during the mid-Holocene (6000-3000 yr ago) was significantly higher than pre-industrial RegFF (AD c. 1750). In southern landscapes, RegFF was not significantly higher than the pre-industrial RegFF in spite of the declining drought severity. The modelling experiment indicates that the high fire risk brought about by a warmer and drier climate in the south during the mid-Holocene was offset by a higher broadleaf component. Our data highlight an important function for broadleaf vegetation in determining boreal RegFF in a warmer climate. We estimate that its feedback may be large enough to offset the projected climate change impacts on drought conditions. © 2013 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Effect of historical land-use and climate change on tree-climate relationships in the upper Midwestern United States.

PubMed

Goring, Simon J; Williams, John W

2017-04-01

Contemporary forest inventory data are widely used to understand environmental controls on tree species distributions and to construct models to project forest responses to climate change, but the stability and representativeness of contemporary tree-climate relationships are poorly understood. We show that tree-climate relationships for 15 tree genera in the upper Midwestern US have significantly altered over the last two centuries due to historical land-use and climate change. Realised niches have shifted towards higher minimum temperatures and higher rainfall. A new attribution method implicates both historical climate change and land-use in these shifts, with the relative importance varying among genera and climate variables. Most climate/land-use interactions are compounding, in which historical land-use reinforces shifts in species-climate relationships toward wetter distributions, or confounding, in which land-use complicates shifts towards warmer distributions. Compounding interactions imply that contemporary-based models of species distributions may underestimate species resilience to climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Development of a Work Climate Scale in Emergency Health Services

PubMed Central

Sanduvete-Chaves, Susana; Lozano-Lozano, José A.; Chacón-Moscoso, Salvador; Holgado-Tello, Francisco P.

2018-01-01

An adequate work climate fosters productivity in organizations and increases employee satisfaction. Workers in emergency health services (EHS) have an extremely high degree of responsibility and consequent stress. Therefore, it is essential to foster a good work climate in this context. Despite this, scales with a full study of their psychometric properties (i.e., validity evidence based on test content, internal structure and relations to other variables, and reliability) are not available to measure work climate in EHS specifically. For this reason, our objective was to develop a scale to measure the quality of work climates in EHS. We carried out three studies. In Study 1, we used a mixed-method approach to identify the latent conceptual structure of the construct work climate. Thus, we integrated the results found in (a) a previous study, where a content analysis of seven in-depth interviews obtained from EHS professionals in two hospitals in Gibraltar Countryside County was carried out; and (b) the factor analysis of the responses given by 113 EHS professionals from these same centers to 18 items that measured the work climate in health organizations. As a result, we obtained 56 items grouped into four factors (work satisfaction, productivity/achievement of aims, interpersonal relationships, and performance at work). In Study 2, we presented validity evidence based on test content through experts' judgment. Fourteen experts from the methodology and health fields evaluated the representativeness, utility, and feasibility of each of the 56 items with respect to their factor (theoretical dimension). Forty items met the inclusion criterion, which was to obtain an Osterlind index value greater than or equal to 0.5 in the three aspects assessed. In Study 3, 201 EHS professionals from the same centers completed the resulting 40-item scale. This new instrument produced validity evidence based on the internal structure in a second-order factor model with four

Development of a Work Climate Scale in Emergency Health Services.

PubMed

Sanduvete-Chaves, Susana; Lozano-Lozano, José A; Chacón-Moscoso, Salvador; Holgado-Tello, Francisco P

2018-01-01

An adequate work climate fosters productivity in organizations and increases employee satisfaction. Workers in emergency health services (EHS) have an extremely high degree of responsibility and consequent stress. Therefore, it is essential to foster a good work climate in this context. Despite this, scales with a full study of their psychometric properties (i.e., validity evidence based on test content, internal structure and relations to other variables, and reliability) are not available to measure work climate in EHS specifically. For this reason, our objective was to develop a scale to measure the quality of work climates in EHS. We carried out three studies. In Study 1, we used a mixed-method approach to identify the latent conceptual structure of the construct work climate . Thus, we integrated the results found in (a) a previous study, where a content analysis of seven in-depth interviews obtained from EHS professionals in two hospitals in Gibraltar Countryside County was carried out; and (b) the factor analysis of the responses given by 113 EHS professionals from these same centers to 18 items that measured the work climate in health organizations. As a result, we obtained 56 items grouped into four factors (work satisfaction, productivity/achievement of aims, interpersonal relationships, and performance at work). In Study 2, we presented validity evidence based on test content through experts' judgment. Fourteen experts from the methodology and health fields evaluated the representativeness, utility, and feasibility of each of the 56 items with respect to their factor (theoretical dimension). Forty items met the inclusion criterion, which was to obtain an Osterlind index value greater than or equal to 0.5 in the three aspects assessed. In Study 3, 201 EHS professionals from the same centers completed the resulting 40-item scale. This new instrument produced validity evidence based on the internal structure in a second-order factor model with four

Photosynthetic capacity and leaf nitrogen decline along a controlled climate gradient in provenances of two widely distributed Eucalyptus species.

PubMed

Crous, Kristine Y; Drake, John E; Aspinwall, Michael J; Sharwood, Robert E; Tjoelker, Mark G; Ghannoum, Oula

2018-05-27

Climate is an important factor limiting tree distributions and adaptation to different thermal environments may influence how tree populations respond to climate warming. Given the current rate of warming, it has been hypothesized that tree populations in warmer, more thermally stable climates may have limited capacity to respond physiologically to warming compared to populations from cooler, more seasonal climates. We determined in a controlled environment how several provenances of widely distributed Eucalyptus tereticornis and E. grandis adjusted their photosynthetic capacity to +3.5°C warming along their native distribution range (~16-38°S) and whether climate of seed origin of the provenances influenced their response to different growth temperatures. We also tested how temperature optima (T opt ) of photosynthesis and J max responded to higher growth temperatures. Our results showed increased photosynthesis rates at a standardized temperature with warming in temperate provenances, while rates in tropical provenances were reduced by about 40% compared to their temperate counterparts. Temperature optima of photosynthesis increased as provenances were exposed to warmer growth temperatures. Both species had ~30% reduced photosynthetic capacity in tropical and subtropical provenances related to reduced leaf nitrogen and leaf Rubisco content compared to temperate provenances. Tropical provenances operated closer to their thermal optimum and came within 3% of the T opt of J max during the daily temperature maxima. Hence, further warming may negatively affect C uptake and tree growth in warmer climates, whereas eucalypts in cooler climates may benefit from moderate warming. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Organizational climate, perceived work-related symptoms and sickness absence: a population-based survey.

PubMed

Piirainen, Helena; Räsänen, Kimmo; Kivimäki, Mika

2003-02-01

Very few reports have been published on organizational climate, health, and sickness absence in a representative sample of the entire workforce. The aim of this study was to determine how the perceived organizational climate of a workplace is related with work-related symptoms and sickness absence and how these factors vary according to sociodemographic and work-related characteristics. Data were collected in computer-assisted telephone interviews of a random sample of 4209 currently employed Finns drawn from the population register. A tense and prejudiced climate was associated with a higher risk of work-related symptoms than a relaxed and supportive climate (odds ratio [OR] 3.0 (95% CI = 2.4-3.7). The corresponding ORs were 4.3 (95% CI = 3.3-5.6) for psychological symptoms, 1.6 (95% CI = 1.2-2.0) for musculoskeletal symptoms, and 1.6 (95% CI = 1.3-2.1) for more than the average number of sick-leave days. Part of the impact of organizational climate on sickness absence is not caused by an increase in work-related symptoms. Thus, organizational climate seems not only to correspond with organizational practices and leadership but also occupational health. Organizational climate could be used as a research tool in attempts to reduce work-related ill health and sickness absenteeism.

Climate change and marine ecosystems (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavez, F.

2013-12-01

Impacts of climate variability on marine ecosystems are pervasive. Those associated with the interannual El Ni~no phenomena are the most studied and better understood. Longer term variations associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) have become more evident as the present-day instrumental record has increased in length. The biological (chlorophyll to fish) and chemical (nutrients, oxygen, carbon) consequences of these climate-driven variations are discussed with an emphasis on the eastern and equatorial Pacific. During warmer periods biological productivity in the eastern Pacific is reduced and larger mobile organisms dramatically change their abundance and/or geographic distributions. At the same time biological productivity in the western Pacific increases highlighting that present (and future) climate-driven changes in biological productivity and chemical distributions are not (and will not) be uniform. The presentation documents present day variations using global scale information from satellites and in situ databases, model simulations and data collected by intensive local time series. Paradoxically longer term changes associated with phenomena like the Little Ice Age (LIA), captured in the sedimentary record, do not seem to follow the same warm (poor), cold (productive) patterns in the eastern Pacific, in fact these are reversed. The presentation ends with speculation regarding long term changes associated with a warmer world.

Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus: recent trends and future scenarios

PubMed Central

Caminade, Cyril; Medlock, Jolyon M.; Ducheyne, Els; McIntyre, K. Marie; Leach, Steve; Baylis, Matthew; Morse, Andrew P.

2012-01-01

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive species that has the potential to transmit infectious diseases such as dengue and chikungunya fever. Using high-resolution observations and regional climate model scenarios for the future, we investigated the suitability of Europe for A. albopictus using both recent climate and future climate conditions. The results show that southern France, northern Italy, the northern coast of Spain, the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea and western Turkey were climatically suitable areas for the establishment of the mosquito during the 1960–1980s. Over the last two decades, climate conditions have become more suitable for the mosquito over central northwestern Europe (Benelux, western Germany) and the Balkans, while they have become less suitable over southern Spain. Similar trends are likely in the future, with an increased risk simulated over northern Europe and slightly decreased risk over southern Europe. These distribution shifts are related to wetter and warmer conditions favouring the overwintering of A. albopictus in the north, and drier and warmer summers that might limit its southward expansion. PMID:22535696

Agricultural Practice and Regional Climate Interactions in a Coupled Land Surface Mesoscale Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooley, H. S.; Riley, W. J.; Torn, M. S.

2003-12-01

Regional climate affects the timing of harvest for rain-fed crops. In response to dry conditions, for example, farmers may harvest crops earlier than they do under wet conditions. This removal of vegetation alters the land surface characteristics and may, in turn, affect regional climate conditions. We studied the dynamic relationship between land use practice, i.e. winter wheat harvest, and regional climate by applying a coupled climate (MM5) and land-surface (LSM1) model to the ARM-CART region of the Southern Great Plains. We compared early and late harvest scenarios, with winter wheat harvested on June 5 and July 5, respectively. Winter wheat is grown in a fairly uniform belt that accounts for 20% of the total land area over the domain of the ARM-CART. Results showed that harvest dramatically affects energy, momentum, and water fluxes. Regionally-averaged, 2 m air temperatures were 0.5-1\\deg C warmer in the early- compared to late-harvest case, with peak warming of 5\\deg C centered over the harvested area. Soils in the harvested area were drier and warmer in the top 10 cm. Near-surface soil water-filled pore space was reduced by 7% across the region, with a peak drying of 22% centered over the harvested area. Soils were up to 10\\deg C warmer, with area-averaged warming of ~0.6\\deg C at mid-day two weeks after harvest. Differences between scenarios were greatest during an initial two-week dry period. A subsequent wet period greatly reduced these differences.

Response of North American freshwater lakes to simulated future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Small, E.E.

1999-01-01

We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO2 doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30??C ever the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.

Assessing Climate Risk on Agricultural Production: Insights Using Retrospective Analysis of Crop Insurance and Climatic Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes, J. J.; Elias, E.; Eischens, A.; Shilts, M.; Rango, A.; Steele, R.

2017-12-01

The collaborative synthesis of existing datasets, such as long-term climate observations and farmers' crop insurance payments, can increase their overall collective value and societal application. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs were created to develop and deliver science-based information and technologies to agricultural and natural resource managers to enable climate-informed decision-making. As part of this mission, Hubs work across USDA and other climate service agencies to synthesize existing information. The USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) is responsible for overseeing the Federal crop insurance program which currently insures over $100 billion in crops annually. RMA hosts data describing the cause for loss (e.g. drought, wind, irrigation failure) and indemnity amount (i.e. total cost of loss) at multiple spatio-temporal scales (i.e. state, county, year, month). The objective of this paper is to link climate information with indemnities, and their associated cause of loss, to assess climate risk on agricultural production and provide regionally-relevant information to stakeholders to promote resilient working landscapes. We performed a retrospective trend analysis at the state-level for the American Southwest (SW). First, we assessed indemnity-only trends by cause of loss and crop type at varying temporal scales. Historical monthly weather data (i.e. precipitation and temperature) and long-term drought indices (e.g. Palmer Drought Severity Index) were then linked with indemnities and grouped by different causes of loss. Climatological ranks were used to integrate historical comparative intensity of acute and long-term climatic events. Heat and drought as causes of loss were most correlated with temperature and drought indicators, respectively. Across all SW states increasing indemnities were correlated with warmer conditions. Multiple statistical trend analyses suggest a framework is necessary to appropriately measure the biophysical

Impact of climate change on projected runoff from mountain snowpack of the King’s Rivershed in California

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Central Valley of California, like most dryland agricultural areas in the Southwest United States, relies heavily on winter snowpack for water resources. Projections of future climate in the Sierra Mountains of California calls for a warmer climate regime that will impact the snowpack in the Sie...

From cold to hot: Climatic effects and productivity in Wisconsin dairy farms.

PubMed

Qi, L; Bravo-Ureta, B E; Cabrera, V E

2015-12-01

This study examined the effects of climatic conditions on dairy farm productivity using panel data for the state of Wisconsin along with alternative stochastic frontier models. A noteworthy feature of this analysis is that Wisconsin is a major dairy-producing area where winters are typically very cold and snowy and summers are hot and humid. Thus, it is an ideal geographical region for examining the effects of a range of climatic factors on dairy production. We identified the effects of temperature and precipitation, both jointly and separately, on milk output. The analysis showed that increasing temperature in summer or in autumn is harmful for dairy production, whereas warmer winters and warmer springs are beneficial. In contrast, more precipitation had a consistent adverse effect on dairy productivity. Overall, the analysis showed that over the past 17 yr, changes in climatic conditions have had a negative effect on Wisconsin dairy farms. Alternative scenarios predict that climate change would lead to a 5 to 11% reduction in dairy production per year between 2020 and 2039 after controlling for other factors. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Job characteristics and work safety climate among North Carolina farmworkers with H-2A visas.

PubMed

Arcury, Thomas A; Summers, Phillip; Talton, Jennifer W; Nguyen, Ha T; Chen, Haiying; Quandt, Sara A

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT Migrant farmworkers are a vulnerable population. Migrant farmworkers with H-2A visas are the only agricultural workers with temporary work permits. Little research has directly focused on the job characteristics and work safety of workers with H-2A visas. This analysis (1) describes their personal and job characteristics, job hazards, and stressors; (2) describes their perceived work safety climate; and (3) examines associations of perceived work safety climate with job characteristics, job hazards, and stressors. Data are from a cross-sectional component of a larger study of farmworker pesticide exposure; in 2012 interviews were conducted with 163 migrant farmworkers with H-2A visas in North Carolina. The sample was limited to men aged 30 to 70 years. Migrant farmworkers with H-2A visas experience the same hazards as do other farmworkers. Their mean score on the Perceived Work Safety Climate Scale 25.5 (SD = 3.7) is similar to that of other farmworkers and other immigrant workers. Perceived work safety climate is associated with hours worked per week (P = .02), precarious employment (P < .001), planting and cultivating (P = .002), topping tobacco (P = .0012), and stress (P = .02). Perceived work safety climate is particularly important for migrant farmworkers with H-2A visas because their labor contracts limit their options to change employers. Additional research on the status of work safety climate among agricultural workers is needed, as well as on the factors that affect work safety climate and on the safety characteristics that are affected by work safety climate. Policy changes that lead to improved work safety climate should be considered.

Job Characteristics and Work Safety Climate among North Carolina Farmworkers with H-2A Visas

PubMed Central

Arcury, Thomas A.; Summers, Phillip; Talton, Jennifer W.; Nguyen, Ha T.; Chen, Haiying; Quandt, Sara A.

2016-01-01

Migrant farmworkers are a vulnerable population. Migrant farmworkers with H-2A visas are the only agricultural workers with temporary work permits. Little research has directly focused on the job characteristics and work safety of workers with H-2A visas. This analysis (1) describes their personal and job characteristics, job hazards, and stressors; (2) describes their perceived work safety climate; and (3) examines associations of perceived work safety climate with job characteristics, job hazards, and stressors. Data are from a cross-sectional component of a larger study of farmworker pesticide exposure; in 2012 interviews were conducted with 163 migrant farmworkers with H-2A visas in North Carolina. The sample was limited to men aged 30 to 70 years. Migrant farmworkers with H-2A visas experience the same hazards as do other farmworkers. Their mean score on the perceived work safety climate scale 25.5 (SD=3.7) is similar to that of other farmworkers and other immigrant workers. Perceived work safety climate is associated with hours worked per week (p=0.02), precarious employment (p<0.001), planting and cultivating (p=0.002); topping tobacco (p=0.0012), and stress (p=0.02). Perceived work safety climate is particularly important for migrant farmworkers with H-2A visas because their labor contracts limit their options to change employers. Additional research on the status of work safety climate among agricultural workers is needed, as well as on the factors that affect work safety climate and on the safety characteristics that are affected by work safety climate. Policy changes that lead to improved work safety climate should be considered. PMID:25635744

Work-Family Climate, Organizational Commitment, and Turnover: Multilevel Contagion Effects of Leaders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Neill, John W.; Harrison, Michelle M.; Cleveland, Jeannette; Almeida, David; Stawski, Robert; Crouter, Anne C.

2009-01-01

This paper presents empirical research analyzing the relationship between work-family climate (operationalized in terms of three work-family climate sub-scales), organizational leadership (i.e., senior manager) characteristics, organizational commitment and turnover intent among 526 employees from 37 different hotels across the US. Using…

Solar variability and climate change: An historical perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldman, Theodore S.

There is nothing new about the debate over the Sun's influence on terrestrial climate.As early as the late 18th century, widespread concern for the deterioration of the Earth's climate led to speculation about the Sun's role in climate change [Feldman, 1993; Fleming, 1990]. Drawing analogies with variations in the brightness of stars, the British astronomer William Herschel suggested that greater sunspot activity would result in warmer terrestrial climates. Herschel supported his hypothesis by referring to price series for wheat published in Adam Smiths Wealth of Nations [Hufbauer, 1991]. Later, the eminent American physicist Joseph Henry demonstrated by thermopile measurements that, contrary to Herschel's assumption, sunspots were cooler than the unblemished portions of the solar disk.

Ecological constraints increase the climatic debt in forests

PubMed Central

Bertrand, Romain; Riofrío-Dillon, Gabriela; Lenoir, Jonathan; Drapier, Jacques; de Ruffray, Patrice; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Loreau, Michel

2016-01-01

Biodiversity changes are lagging behind current climate warming. The underlying determinants of this climatic debt are unknown and yet critical to understand the impacts of climate change on the present biota and improve forecasts of biodiversity changes. Here we assess determinants of climatic debt accumulated in French forest herbaceous plant communities between 1987 and 2008 (that is, a 1.05 °C mean difference between the observed and bioindicated temperatures). We show that warmer baseline conditions predispose plant communities to larger climatic debts, and that climate warming exacerbates this response. Forest plant communities, however, are absorbing part of the temperature increase mainly through the species' ability to tolerate changing climate. As climate warming is expected to accelerate during the twenty-first century, plant migration and tolerance to climatic stresses probably will be insufficient to absorb this impact posing threats to the sustainability of forest plant communities. PMID:27561410

Ecological constraints increase the climatic debt in forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertrand, Romain; Riofrío-Dillon, Gabriela; Lenoir, Jonathan; Drapier, Jacques; de Ruffray, Patrice; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Loreau, Michel

2016-08-01

Biodiversity changes are lagging behind current climate warming. The underlying determinants of this climatic debt are unknown and yet critical to understand the impacts of climate change on the present biota and improve forecasts of biodiversity changes. Here we assess determinants of climatic debt accumulated in French forest herbaceous plant communities between 1987 and 2008 (that is, a 1.05 °C mean difference between the observed and bioindicated temperatures). We show that warmer baseline conditions predispose plant communities to larger climatic debts, and that climate warming exacerbates this response. Forest plant communities, however, are absorbing part of the temperature increase mainly through the species' ability to tolerate changing climate. As climate warming is expected to accelerate during the twenty-first century, plant migration and tolerance to climatic stresses probably will be insufficient to absorb this impact posing threats to the sustainability of forest plant communities.

Climate threats on growth of rear-edge European beech peripheral populations in Spain.

PubMed

Dorado-Liñán, I; Akhmetzyanov, L; Menzel, A

2017-12-01

European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests in the Iberian Peninsula are a clear example of a temperate forest tree species at the rear edge of its large distribution area in Europe. The expected drier and warmer climate may alter tree growth and species distribution. Consequently, the peripheral populations will most likely be the most threatened ones. Four peripheral beech forests in the Iberian Peninsula were studied in order to assess the climate factors influencing tree growth for the last six decades. The analyses included an individual tree approach in order to detect not only the changes in the sensitivity to climate but also the potential size-mediated sensitivity to climate. Our results revealed a dominant influence of previous and current year summer on tree growth during the last six decades, although the analysis in two equally long periods unveiled changes and shifts in tree sensitivity to climate. The individual tree approach showed that those changes in tree response to climate are not size dependent in most of the cases. We observed a reduced negative effect of warmer winter temperatures at some sites and a generalized increased influence of previous year climatic conditions on current year tree growth. These results highlight the crucial role played by carryover effects and stored carbohydrates for future tree growth and species persistence.

Climate threats on growth of rear-edge European beech peripheral populations in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorado-Liñán, I.; Akhmetzyanov, L.; Menzel, A.

2017-12-01

European beech ( Fagus sylvatica L.) forests in the Iberian Peninsula are a clear example of a temperate forest tree species at the rear edge of its large distribution area in Europe. The expected drier and warmer climate may alter tree growth and species distribution. Consequently, the peripheral populations will most likely be the most threatened ones. Four peripheral beech forests in the Iberian Peninsula were studied in order to assess the climate factors influencing tree growth for the last six decades. The analyses included an individual tree approach in order to detect not only the changes in the sensitivity to climate but also the potential size-mediated sensitivity to climate. Our results revealed a dominant influence of previous and current year summer on tree growth during the last six decades, although the analysis in two equally long periods unveiled changes and shifts in tree sensitivity to climate. The individual tree approach showed that those changes in tree response to climate are not size dependent in most of the cases. We observed a reduced negative effect of warmer winter temperatures at some sites and a generalized increased influence of previous year climatic conditions on current year tree growth. These results highlight the crucial role played by carryover effects and stored carbohydrates for future tree growth and species persistence.

Climate change and tectonic activity during the early Pliocene Warm Period from the ostracod record at Lake Qinghai, northeastern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Fengyan; An, Zhisheng; Chang, Hong; Dodson, John; Qiang, Xiaoke; Yan, Hong; Dong, Jibao; Song, Yougui; Fu, Chaofeng; Li, Xiangzhong

2017-05-01

The Early Pliocene Warm Period (EPWP, 5-3 Ma) is sometimes thought to be a useful analogue for a future warmer world, and thus the boundary conditions and drivers of climate in the EPWP may provide valuable lessons for understanding how a future warmer world might unfold. Lake Qinghai is located on the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and is affected by both Monsoon climate and Westerlies circulation. It is sensitive to the climate drivers of these systems. Its sediments, accumulated over the Cenozoic period, are a rich source of information for climate, tectonics and environmental changes of the period. We present a high-resolution ostracod record from a Lake Qinghai sediment core with a record of the period 5.10-2.60 Ma, thus covering the EPWP. Ostracods appear at 4.63 Ma and are most abundant until 3.58 Ma, while a body of water was present at the core site. This suggests a phase of humid climate and an intensified Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM), which is consistent with a warmer and wetter climate in the early Pliocene. Within this period the ostracod record shows some variabilities in lake level with deeper periods suggesting more intense ASM compared to those with shallower water. The disappearance of ostracods at 3.58 Ma may provide evidence for the uplift of Qinghai Nanshan (south of Qinghai Lake) since this is when the ASM intensified.

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

Treesearch

Xiaohui Feng; María Uriarte; Grizelle González; Sasha Reed; Jill Thompson; Jess K. Zimmerman; Lora Murphy

2018-01-01

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very...

Effect of warming and flow rate conditions of blood warmers on red blood cell integrity.

PubMed

Poder, T G; Pruneau, D; Dorval, J; Thibault, L; Fisette, J-F; Bédard, S K; Jacques, A; Beauregard, P

2016-11-01

Fluid warmers are routinely used to reduce the risk of hypothermia and cardiac complications associated with the infusion of cold blood products. However, warming blood products could generate haemolysis. This study was undertaken to compare the impact of temperature of blood warmers on the per cent haemolysis of packed red blood cells (RBCs) heated at different flow rates as well as non-flow conditions. Infusion warmers used were calibrated at 41·5°C ± 0·5°C and 37·5°C ± 0·5°C. Cold RBC units stored at 4°C in AS-3 (n = 30), aged 30-39 days old, were divided into half units before being allocated under two different scenarios (i.e. infusion pump or syringe). Blood warmers were effective to warm cold RBCs to 37·5°C or 41·5°C when used in conjunction with an infusion pump at flow rate up to 600 ml/h. However, when the warmed blood was held in a syringe for various periods of time, such as may occur in neonatal transfusions, the final temperature was below the expected requirements with measurement as low as 33·1°C. Increasing the flow with an infusion pump increased haemolysis in RBCs from 0·2% to up to 2·1% at a flow rate of 600 ml/h regardless of the warming device used (P < 0·05). No relevant increase of haemolysis was observed using a syringe. The use of a blood warmer adjusted to 41·5°C is probably the best choice for reducing the risk of hypothermia for the patient without generating haemolysis. However, we should be cautious with the use of an infusion pump for RBC transfusion, particularly at high flow rates. © 2016 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

Younger Dryas cooling and the Greenland climate response to CO2.

PubMed

Liu, Zhengyu; Carlson, Anders E; He, Feng; Brady, Esther C; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Briegleb, Bruce P; Wehrenberg, Mark; Clark, Peter U; Wu, Shu; Cheng, Jun; Zhang, Jiaxu; Noone, David; Zhu, Jiang

2012-07-10

Greenland ice-core δ(18)O-temperature reconstructions suggest a dramatic cooling during the Younger Dryas (YD; 12.9-11.7 ka), with temperatures being as cold as the earlier Oldest Dryas (OD; 18.0-14.6 ka) despite an approximately 50 ppm rise in atmospheric CO(2). Such YD cooling implies a muted Greenland climate response to atmospheric CO(2), contrary to physical predictions of an enhanced high-latitude response to future increases in CO(2). Here we show that North Atlantic sea surface temperature reconstructions as well as transient climate model simulations suggest that the YD over Greenland should be substantially warmer than the OD by approximately 5 °C in response to increased atmospheric CO(2). Additional experiments with an isotope-enabled model suggest that the apparent YD temperature reconstruction derived from the ice-core δ(18)O record is likely an artifact of an altered temperature-δ(18)O relationship due to changing deglacial atmospheric circulation. Our results thus suggest that Greenland climate was warmer during the YD relative to the OD in response to rising atmospheric CO(2), consistent with sea surface temperature reconstructions and physical predictions, and has a sensitivity approximately twice that found in climate models for current climate due to an enhanced albedo feedback during the last deglaciation.

Seasonally resolved climate variability during the last interglacial from southern Caribbean corals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brocas, William; Felis, Thomas; Kölling, Martin; Scholz, Denis; Lohmann, Gerrit; Scheffers, Sanders

2013-04-01

A range of future climate scenarios have been predicted for a warmer Earth as a result of varying anthropogenic greenhouse emissions. The Last Interglacial period (~125,000 years ago, Marine Isotope Stage 5) offers a period in time which is estimated to have been in the range of 0.1 to > 2oC warmer than present (AD 1961-1990). Although this period is not considered completely analogous for future climate states, the mechanisms behind such changes have the potential to be well understood. Here we present the initial findings of a study which aims to augment current understanding by quantifying the climate dynamics of the tropical southern Caribbean using high resolution marine climate archives. In doing so, we highlight geochemical proxies obtained from aragonitic coral skeletons as a proxy for seasonality and interannual to decadal climate variability. Unique fossil coral material has been collected from an uplifted reef terrace on the island of Bonaire (Netherlands Antilles), which according to 230Th/U dating, was deposited during the Last Interglacial. The sampling technique employed here has been focused using C/T scanning and X-radiography which revealed annual density bands in 21 individual coral colonies. Due to a high average extension rate of greater than 6mm/year, monthly records are available which represent growth periods from 9 to 40 years and so cover various time windows across the Last Interglacial. We discuss the results from geochemical signals of Sr/Ca and oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) which reflect, respectively, regional temperature and hydrological balance at the sea surface. The finding that Sr/Ca and δ18O cycles occur alongside visible annual density bands allows the quality of the fossil coral material to be considered high and reliable. To further supplement the interpretation of these records greyscale increment analysis, Mg/Ca and δ13C records are presented. The implications of these findings, when compared to Holocene records, identify

Climate Change Resilience Planning at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.; Johnson, A.

2015-12-01

The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is developing a site sustainability plan for the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina in accordance with Executive Order 13693, which charges each DOE agency with "identifying and addressing projected impacts of climate change" and "calculating the potential cost and risk to mission associated with agency operations". The plan will comprise i) projections of climate change, ii) surveys of site managers to estimate the effects of climate change on site operations, and iii) a determination of adaptive actions. Climate change projections for SRS are obtained from multiple sources, including an online repository of downscaled global climate model (GCM) simulations of future climate and downscaled GCM simulations produced at SRNL. Taken together, we have projected data for temperature, precipitation, humidity, and wind - all variables with a strong influence on site operations. SRNL is working to engage site facility managers and facilitate a "bottom up" approach to climate change resilience planning, where the needs and priorities of stakeholders are addressed throughout the process. We make use of the Vulnerability Assessment Scoring Tool, an Excel-based program designed to accept as input various climate scenarios ('exposure'), the susceptibility of assets to climate change ('sensitivity'), and the ability of these assets to cope with climate change ('adaptive capacity'). These are combined to produce a series of scores that highlight vulnerabilities. Working with site managers, we have selected the most important assets, estimated their expected response to climate change, and prepared a report highlighting the most endangered facilities. Primary risks include increased energy consumption, decreased water availability, increased forest fire danger, natural resource degradation, and compromised outdoor worker safety in a warmer and more humid climate. Results of this study will aid in driving

Effects of heat stress on working populations when facing climate change.

PubMed

Lundgren, Karin; Kuklane, Kalev; Gao, Chuansi; Holmér, Ingvar

2013-01-01

It is accepted that the earth's climate is changing in an accelerating pace, with already documented implications for human health and the environment. This literature review provides an overview of existing research findings about the effects of heat stress on the working population in relation to climate change. In the light of climate change adaptation, the purpose of the literature review was to explore recent and previous research into the impacts of heat stress on humans in an occupational setting. Heat stress in the workplace has been researched extensively in the past however, in the contemporary context of climate change, information is lacking on its extent and implications. The main factors found to exacerbate heat stress in the current and future workplace are the urban 'heat island effect', physical work, individual differences, and the developing country context where technological fixes are often not applicable. There is also a lack of information on the effects on vulnerable groups such as elderly people and pregnant women. As increasing temperatures reduce work productivity, world economic productivity could be condensed, affecting developing countries in the tropical climate zone disproportionately. Future research is needed taking an interdisciplinary approach, including social, economic, environmental and technical aspects.

Climate change in the North American Arctic: A one health perspective

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change is expected to increase the prevalence of acute and chronic diseases among human and animal populations within the Arctic and sub-Arctic latitudes of North America. Warmer temperatures are expected to increase disease risks from food-borne pathogens, water-borne diseases, and vector-...

Fatigue in seafarers working in the offshore oil and gas re-supply industry: effects of safety climate, psychosocial work environment and shift arrangement.

PubMed

Hystad, Sigurd W; Saus, Evelyn-Rose; Sætrevik, Bjørn; Eid, Jarle

2013-01-01

This study examined the influence of safety climate and psychosocial work environment on the reported fatigue of seafarers working in the offshore oil and gas re-supply industry (n = 402). We found that seafarers who reported high psychological demands and perceived the organisational-level safety climate negatively,reported significantly more mental fatigue, physical fatigue, and lack of energy. In addition, seafarers who reported having high levels of job control reported being significantly less mentally fatigued. We also found some combined effects of safety climate and shift arrangement. Organisational-level safety climate did not influence the levels of physical fatigue in seafarers working on the night shift. On the contrary, seafarers working during the days reported to be more physically fatigued when they perceived the organisational-level climate to be negative compared with the positive. The opposite effect was found for group-level safety climate: seafarers working during the nights reported to be more physically fatigued when they perceived the group-level climate to be negative compared with the positive. The results from this study point to the importance of taking into consideration aspects of the psychosocial work environment and safety climate,and their potential impact on fatigue and safety in the maritime organisations.

Lagging adaptation to warming climate in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Wilczek, Amity M; Cooper, Martha D; Korves, Tonia M; Schmitt, Johanna

2014-06-03

If climate change outpaces the rate of adaptive evolution within a site, populations previously well adapted to local conditions may decline or disappear, and banked seeds from those populations will be unsuitable for restoring them. However, if such adaptational lag has occurred, immigrants from historically warmer climates will outperform natives and may provide genetic potential for evolutionary rescue. We tested for lagging adaptation to warming climate using banked seeds of the annual weed Arabidopsis thaliana in common garden experiments in four sites across the species' native European range: Valencia, Spain; Norwich, United Kingdom; Halle, Germany; and Oulu, Finland. Genotypes originating from geographic regions near the planting site had high relative fitness in each site, direct evidence for broad-scale geographic adaptation in this model species. However, genotypes originating in sites historically warmer than the planting site had higher average relative fitness than local genotypes in every site, especially at the northern range limit in Finland. This result suggests that local adaptive optima have shifted rapidly with recent warming across the species' native range. Climatic optima also differed among seasonal germination cohorts within the Norwich site, suggesting that populations occurring where summer germination is common may have greater evolutionary potential to persist under future warming. If adaptational lag has occurred over just a few decades in banked seeds of an annual species, it may be an important consideration for managing longer-lived species, as well as for attempts to conserve threatened populations through ex situ preservation.

Lagging adaptation to warming climate in Arabidopsis thaliana

PubMed Central

Wilczek, Amity M.; Cooper, Martha D.; Korves, Tonia M.; Schmitt, Johanna

2014-01-01

If climate change outpaces the rate of adaptive evolution within a site, populations previously well adapted to local conditions may decline or disappear, and banked seeds from those populations will be unsuitable for restoring them. However, if such adaptational lag has occurred, immigrants from historically warmer climates will outperform natives and may provide genetic potential for evolutionary rescue. We tested for lagging adaptation to warming climate using banked seeds of the annual weed Arabidopsis thaliana in common garden experiments in four sites across the species’ native European range: Valencia, Spain; Norwich, United Kingdom; Halle, Germany; and Oulu, Finland. Genotypes originating from geographic regions near the planting site had high relative fitness in each site, direct evidence for broad-scale geographic adaptation in this model species. However, genotypes originating in sites historically warmer than the planting site had higher average relative fitness than local genotypes in every site, especially at the northern range limit in Finland. This result suggests that local adaptive optima have shifted rapidly with recent warming across the species’ native range. Climatic optima also differed among seasonal germination cohorts within the Norwich site, suggesting that populations occurring where summer germination is common may have greater evolutionary potential to persist under future warming. If adaptational lag has occurred over just a few decades in banked seeds of an annual species, it may be an important consideration for managing longer-lived species, as well as for attempts to conserve threatened populations through ex situ preservation. PMID:24843140

Validating a work group climate assessment tool for improving the performance of public health organizations

PubMed Central

Perry, Cary; LeMay, Nancy; Rodway, Greg; Tracy, Allison; Galer, Joan

2005-01-01

Background This article describes the validation of an instrument to measure work group climate in public health organizations in developing countries. The instrument, the Work Group Climate Assessment Tool (WCA), was applied in Brazil, Mozambique, and Guinea to assess the intermediate outcomes of a program to develop leadership for performance improvement. Data were collected from 305 individuals in 42 work groups, who completed a self-administered questionnaire. Methods The WCA was initially validated using Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient and exploratory factor analysis. This article presents the results of a second validation study to refine the initial analyses to account for nested data, to provide item-level psychometrics, and to establish construct validity. Analyses included eigenvalue decomposition analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and validity and reliability analyses. Results This study confirmed the validity and reliability of the WCA across work groups with different demographic characteristics (gender, education, management level, and geographical location). The study showed that there is agreement between the theoretical construct of work climate and the items in the WCA tool across different populations. The WCA captures a single perception of climate rather than individual sub-scales of clarity, support, and challenge. Conclusion The WCA is useful for comparing the climates of different work groups, tracking the changes in climate in a single work group over time, or examining differences among individuals' perceptions of their work group climate. Application of the WCA before and after a leadership development process can help work groups hold a discussion about current climate and select a target for improvement. The WCA provides work groups with a tool to take ownership of their own group climate through a process that is simple and objective and that protects individual confidentiality. PMID:16223447

Improving the Accuracy of Estimation of Climate Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolina, Olga; Detemmerman, Valery; Trenberth, Kevin E.

2010-12-01

Workshop on Metrics and Methodologies of Estimation of Extreme Climate Events; Paris, France, 27-29 September 2010; Climate projections point toward more frequent and intense weather and climate extremes such as heat waves, droughts, and floods, in a warmer climate. These projections, together with recent extreme climate events, including flooding in Pakistan and the heat wave and wildfires in Russia, highlight the need for improved risk assessments to help decision makers and the public. But accurate analysis and prediction of risk of extreme climate events require new methodologies and information from diverse disciplines. A recent workshop sponsored by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and hosted at United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) headquarters in France brought together, for the first time, a unique mix of climatologists, statisticians, meteorologists, oceanographers, social scientists, and risk managers (such as those from insurance companies) who sought ways to improve scientists' ability to characterize and predict climate extremes in a changing climate.

Associations between perceived crisis mode work climate and poor information exchange within hospitals.

PubMed

Patterson, Mark E; Bogart, Miller S; Starr, Kathleen R

2015-03-01

Because hospital units operating in crisis mode could create unsafe transitions of care due to miscommunication, our objective was to estimate associations between perceived crisis mode work climate and patient information exchange problems within hospitals. Self-reported data from 247,140 hospital staff members across 884 hospitals were obtained from the 2010 Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture. Presence of a crisis mode work climate was defined as respondents agreeing that the hospital unit in which they work tries to do too much too quickly. Presence of patient information exchange problems was defined as respondents agreeing that problems often occur in exchanging patient information across hospital units. Multivariable ordinal regressions estimated the likelihood of perceived problems in exchanging patient information across hospital units, controlling for perceived levels of crisis mode work climate, skill levels, work climate, and hospital infrastructure. Compared to those disagreeing, hospital staff members agreeing that the hospital unit in which they work tries to do too much too quickly were 1.6 times more likely to perceive problems in exchanging patient information across hospital units (odds ratio: 1.6, 95% confidence interval: 1.58-1.65). Hospital staff members perceiving crisis mode work climates within their hospital unit are more likely to perceive problems in exchanging patient information across units, underscoring the need to improve communication during transitions of care. © 2014 Society of Hospital Medicine.

Climate change in safety assessment of a surface disposal facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leterme, B.

2012-04-01

The Belgian Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials (ONDRAF/NIRAS) aims to develop a surface disposal facility for LILW-SL in Dessel (North-East of Belgium). Given the time scale of interest for the safety assessment (several millennia), a number of parameters in the modelling chain near field - geosphere - biosphere may be influenced by climate change. The present study discusses how potential climate change impact was accounted for the following quantities: (i) near field infiltration through the repository earth cover, (ii) partial pressure of CO2 in the water infiltrating the cover and draining the concrete, and (iii) groundwater recharge in the vicinity of the site. For these three parameters, the impact of climate change is assessed using climatic analogue stations, i.e. stations presently under climatic conditions corresponding to a given climate state. Results indicate that : (i) Using Gijon (Spain) as representative analogue station for the next millennia, infiltration at the bottom of the soil layer towards the modules of the facility is expected to increase (from 346 to 413 mm/y) under a subtropical climate. Although no colder climate is foreseen in the next 10 000 years, the approach was also tested with analogue stations for a colder climate state. Using Sisimiut (Greenland) as representative analogue station, infiltration is expected to decrease (109 mm/y). (ii) Due to changes of the partial pressure of CO2 in the soil water, cement degradation is estimated to occur more rapidly under a warmer climate. (iii) A decrease of long-term annual average groundwater recharge by 12% was simulated using Gijon representative analogue (from 314 to 276 mm), although total rainfall was higher (947 mm) in the warmer climate compared to the current temperate climate (899 mm). For a colder climate state, groundwater recharge simulated for the representative analogue Sisimiut showed a decrease by 69% compared to current climate conditions. The

Work climate perception and turnover intention among Korean hospital staff.

PubMed

Hwang, J-I; Chang, H

2009-03-01

To examine the impact of work climate perception (WCP) on turnover intention among public hospital personnel in Korea. With increased competition and high staff turnover in hospitals, managers focus on human resource management. Positive work climate is considered as a strategy to retain valued staff, but previous studies have shown occupationally different relationships between turnover intention and work environment characteristics as perceived by staff. A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted of employees (n = 852) in four public hospitals in Korea to gather information about WCP, intention to leave and demographics. The work climate was measured by 32 items categorized into 13 factors in five dimensions. For each occupation, logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the significant factors of WCP that influenced turnover intention. Positive WCP inversely influenced turnover intention. For all occupations, the most significant factor was 'workgroup friendliness and warmth' (OR = 0.01-0.21). For the nursing group, an additional significant factor was 'adherence to job standard' (OR = 0.63). In contrast, there were different significant factors for other hospital staff: 'workgroup esprit de corps' (OR = 0.16) and 'role clarity' (OR = 0.19) for physicians, 'adherence to job standard' (OR = 3.08) and 'role adaptation' (OR = 2.23) for paramedicals, and 'flexibility and innovation' (OR = 0.14) and 'interdepartmental cooperation' (OR = 0.19) for administrators. Nurses with perceptions of work climate emphasizing 'workgroup friendliness and warmth' and 'adherence to job standard' had lower turnover intention. Physicians, paramedicals and administrators have different WCPs. To retain qualified personnel, hospitals should focus on human relations, maintaining a consideration for occupation-specific characteristics.

Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a Western river's water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R. M.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W. G.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K. C.

2014-05-01

An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrients loads in the historically snow melt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, Western United States. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that in the Sprague River (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high flow season under warmer-wetter climate projections, or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

Does safety climate moderate the influence of staffing adequacy and work conditions on nurse injuries?

PubMed

Mark, Barbara A; Hughes, Linda C; Belyea, Michael; Chang, Yunkyung; Hofmann, David; Jones, Cheryl B; Bacon, Cynthia T

2007-01-01

Hospital nurses have one of the highest work-related injury rates in the United States. Yet, approaches to improving employee safety have generally focused on attempts to modify individual behavior through enforced compliance with safety rules and mandatory participation in safety training. We examined a theoretical model that investigated the impact on nurse injuries (back injuries and needlesticks) of critical structural variables (staffing adequacy, work engagement, and work conditions) and further tested whether safety climate moderated these effects. A longitudinal, non-experimental, organizational study, conducted in 281 medical-surgical units in 143 general acute care hospitals in the United States. Work engagement and work conditions were positively related to safety climate, but not directly to nurse back injuries or needlesticks. Safety climate moderated the relationship between work engagement and needlesticks, while safety climate moderated the effect of work conditions on both needlesticks and back injuries, although in unexpected ways. DISCUSSION AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Our findings suggest that positive work engagement and work conditions contribute to enhanced safety climate and can reduce nurse injuries.

Coexisting oak species, including rear-edge populations, buffer climate stress through xylem adjustments.

PubMed

Granda, E; Alla, A Q; Laskurain, N A; Loidi, J; Sánchez-Lorenzo, A; Camarero, J J

2018-02-01

The ability of trees to cope with climate change is a pivotal feature of forest ecosystems, especially for rear-edge populations facing warm and dry conditions. To evaluate current and future forests threats, a multi-proxy focus on the growth, anatomical and physiological responses to climate change is needed. We examined the long-term xylem adjustments to climate variability of the temperate Quercus robur L. at its rear edge and the sub-Mediterranean Quercus pyrenaica Willd. Both species coexist at a mesic (ME, humid and warmer) and a xeric (XE, dry and cooler) site in northern Spain, the latter experiencing increasing temperatures in recent decades. We compared xylem traits at each site and assessed their trends, relationships and responses to climate (1960-2008). Traits included basal area increment, earlywood vessel hydraulic diameter, density and theoretical-specific hydraulic conductivity together with latewood oxygen (δ18O) stable isotopes and δ13C-derived water-use efficiency (iWUE). Quercus robur showed the highest growth at ME, likely through enhanced cambial activity. Quercus pyrenaica had higher iWUE at XE compared with ME, but limited plasticity of anatomical xylem traits was found for the two oak species. Similar physiological performance was found for both species. The iWUE augmented in recent years especially at XE, likely explained by stomatal closure given the increasing δ18O signal in response to drier and sunnier growing seasons. Overall, traits were more correlated at XE than at ME. The iWUE improvements were linked to higher growth up to a threshold (~85 μmol mol-1) after which reduced growth was found at XE. Our results are consistent with Q. pyrenaica and Q. robur coexisting at the central and dry edge of the climatic species distribution, respectively, showing similar responses to buffer warmer conditions. In fact, the observed adjustments found for Q. robur point towards growth stability of similar rear-edge oak populations under

Towards a More Biologically-meaningful Climate Characterization: Variability in Space and Time at Multiple Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christianson, D. S.; Kaufman, C. G.; Kueppers, L. M.; Harte, J.

2013-12-01

Sampling limitations and current modeling capacity justify the common use of mean temperature values in summaries of historical climate and future projections. However, a monthly mean temperature representing a 1-km2 area on the landscape is often unable to capture the climate complexity driving organismal and ecological processes. Estimates of variability in addition to mean values are more biologically meaningful and have been shown to improve projections of range shifts for certain species. Historical analyses of variance and extreme events at coarse spatial scales, as well as coarse-scale projections, show increasing temporal variability in temperature with warmer means. Few studies have considered how spatial variance changes with warming, and analysis for both temporal and spatial variability across scales is lacking. It is unclear how the spatial variability of fine-scale conditions relevant to plant and animal individuals may change given warmer coarse-scale mean values. A change in spatial variability will affect the availability of suitable habitat on the landscape and thus, will influence future species ranges. By characterizing variability across both temporal and spatial scales, we can account for potential bias in species range projections that use coarse climate data and enable improvements to current models. In this study, we use temperature data at multiple spatial and temporal scales to characterize spatial and temporal variability under a warmer climate, i.e., increased mean temperatures. Observational data from the Sierra Nevada (California, USA), experimental climate manipulation data from the eastern and western slopes of the Rocky Mountains (Colorado, USA), projected CMIP5 data for California (USA) and observed PRISM data (USA) allow us to compare characteristics of a mean-variance relationship across spatial scales ranging from sub-meter2 to 10,000 km2 and across temporal scales ranging from hours to decades. Preliminary spatial analysis at

Effect of global climate change on rare trees and shrubs

Treesearch

Margaret S. Devall

2008-01-01

In the past, climate has fluctuated with periodsof cooler, warmer, drier or wetter weather thanat present. Plants have been able to adapt,but widespread, rapid warming could be disastrousfor rare trees and shrubs – i.e. thosenative species that are among an area’s most

Predicting Summer Dryness Under a Warmer Climate: Modeling Land Surface Processes in the Midwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, J. M.; Eltahir, E. A.

2009-12-01

One of the most significant impacts of climate change is the potential alteration of local hydrologic cycles over agriculturally productive areas. As the world’s food supply continues to be taxed by its burgeoning population, a greater percentage of arable land will need to be utilized and land currently producing food must become more efficient. This study seeks to quantify the effects of climate change on soil moisture in the American Midwest. A series of 24-year numerical experiments were conducted to assess the ability of Regional Climate Model Version 3 coupled to Integrated Biosphere Simulator (RegCM3-IBIS) and Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme 1e (RegCM3-BATS1e) to simulate the observed hydroclimatology of the midwestern United States. Model results were evaluated using NASA Surface Radiation Budget, NASA Earth Radiation Budget Experiment, Illinois State Water Survey, Climate Research Unit Time Series 2.1, Global Soil Moisture Data Bank, and regional-scale estimations of evapotranspiration. The response of RegCM3-IBIS and RegCM3-BATS1e to a surrogate climate change scenario, a warming of 3oC at the boundaries and doubling of CO2, was explored. Precipitation increased significantly during the spring and summer in both RegCM3-IBIS and RegCM3-BATS1e, leading to additional runoff. In contrast, enhancement of evapotranspiration and shortwave radiation were modest. Soil moisture remained relatively unchanged in RegCM3-IBIS, while RegCM3-BATS1e exhibited some fall and winter wetting.

Climate's Role in Terroir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, G. V.

2012-12-01

The marriage between a given winegrape cultivar planted in its ideal climate, over favorable topography and physical soil characteristics, combine to create the potential to produce fine wine. The French term terroir embodies this potential as a holistic concept that relates to both environmental and cultural factors that together influence the grape growing to wine production continuum. While the landscape, geology, soil, and climate strongly interact to influence the vine's balance of nutrients and water, climate is clearly of prevailing importance in that it limits where grapes can be grown at both the global and site scale. This talk will review the nature of climate's role in terroir through a discussion of the structure of climate in wine regions globally and how this structure influences cultivar suitability. Furthermore, the talk will use two of the most commonly planted red wine cultivars as examples - Pinot Noir and Cabernet Sauvignon - providing details on the historic, current, and future climate structure of wine regions growing these cultivars. In general the examination reveals that cool climate cultivars tend to have a narrower climate niche for high quality wine production, than do warmer climate cultivars, with less range of adaptation. Furthermore, the range of the climate suitability of these two cultivars shows that potentially new terroirs for each are waiting to be found.

Poor safety climate, long work hours, and musculoskeletal discomfort among Latino horse farm workers.

PubMed

Swanberg, Jennifer; Clouser, Jessica Miller; Gan, Wenqi; Flunker, John C; Westneat, Susan; Browning, Steven R

2017-09-03

This study investigated the prevalence of self-reported musculoskeletal discomfort (MSD) and work-related factors associated with elevated MSD among Latino thoroughbred farm workers. Participants (N = 225) were recruited using a community-based purposive sampling approach to participate in in-person interviews. Of these workers, 85% experienced MSD. MSD was divided into tertiles; the upper tertile was defined as elevated. Multivariable Poisson regression revealed associations between any elevated MSD and longer tenure on horse farms, longer work hours, and poor safety climate. Elevated neck/back MSD was associated with longer tenure, longer work hours, and poor safety climate. Elevated upper extremity MSD was associated with age and poor safety climate. Elevated lower extremity MSD was associated with longer tenure, longer work hours, and being female. Musculoskeletal discomfort is common among these workers. Improving safety climate and minimizing long work hours is recommended.

Admission temperatures following radiant warmer or incubator transport for preterm infants <28 weeks: a randomised study.

PubMed

Meyer, Michael P; Bold, Geoff T

2007-07-01

Sixty two infants <28 weeks were occlusively wrapped and randomised to radiant warmer or incubator transport to the neonatal unit. Median axillary temperature on arrival was 36.8 degrees C in both groups. Target temperatures (36.5-37.5 degrees C) were achieved in 60% of the incubator group compared to 75% in the warmer group (not statistically significant). While powered to detect a 35% difference between warming devices, a more modest difference is not excluded.

The Eemian climate simulated by two models of different complexities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikolova, Irina; Yin, Qiuzhen; Berger, Andre; Singh, Umesh; Karami, Pasha

2013-04-01

The Eemian period, also known as MIS-5, experienced warmer than today climate, reduction in ice sheets and important sea-level rise. These interesting features have made the Eemian appropriate to evaluate climate models when forced with astronomical and greenhouse gas forcings different from today. In this work, we present the simulated Eemian climate by two climate models of different complexities, LOVECLIM (LLN Earth system model of intermediate complexity) and CCSM3 (NCAR atmosphere-ocean general circulation model). Feedbacks from sea ice, vegetation, monsoon and ENSO phenomena are discussed to explain the regional similarities/dissimilarities in both models with respect to the pre-industrial (PI) climate. Significant warming (cooling) over almost all the continents during boreal summer (winter) leads to a largely increased (reduced) seasonal contrast in the northern (southern) hemisphere, mainly due to the much higher (lower) insolation received by the whole Earth in boreal summer (winter). The arctic is warmer than at PI through the whole year, resulting from its much higher summer insolation and its remnant effect in the following fall-winter through the interactions between atmosphere, ocean and sea ice. Regional discrepancies exist in the sea-ice formation zones between the two models. Excessive sea-ice formation in CCSM3 results in intense regional cooling. In both models intensified African monsoon and vegetation feedback are responsible for the cooling during summer in North Africa and on the Arabian Peninsula. Over India precipitation maximum is found further west, while in Africa the precipitation maximum migrates further north. Trees and grassland expand north in Sahel/Sahara, trees being more abundant in the results from LOVECLIM than from CCSM3. A mix of forest and grassland occupies continents and expand deep in the high northern latitudes in line with proxy records. Desert areas reduce significantly in Northern Hemisphere, but increase in North

Radiant energy and insensible water loss in the premature newborn infant nursed under a radiant warmer.

PubMed

Baumgart, S

1982-10-01

Radiant warmers are a powerful and efficient source of heat serving to warm the cold-stressed infant acutely and to provide uninterrupted maintenance of body temperature despite a multiplicity of nursing, medical, and surgical procedures required to care for the critically ill premature newborn in today's intensive care nursery. A recognized side-effect of radiant warmer beds is the now well-documented increase in insensible water loss through evaporation from an infant's skin. Particularly the very-low-birth-weight, severely premature, and critically ill neonate is subject to this increase in evaporative water loss. The clinician caring for the infant is faced with the difficult problem of fluid and electrolyte balance, which requires vigilant monitoring of all parameters of fluid homeostasis. Compounding these difficulties, other portions of the electromagnetic spectrum (for example, phototherapy) may affect an infant's fluid metabolism by mechanisms that are not well understood. The role of plastic heat shielding in reducing large insensible losses in infants nursed on radiant warmer beds is currently under intense investigation. Apparently, convective air currents and not radiant heat energy may be the cause of the observed increase in insensible water loss in the intensive care nursery. A thin plastic blanket may be effective in reducing evaporative water loss by diminishing an infant's exposure to convective air currents while being nursed on an open radiant warmer bed. A rigid plastic body hood, although effective as a radiant heat shield, is not as effective in preventing exposure to convection in the intensive care nursery and, therefore, is not as effective as the thin plastic blanket in reducing insensible water loss. Care should be exercised in determining the effect of heat shielding on all parameters of heat exchange (convection, evaporation, and radiation) before application is made to the critically ill premature infant nursed on an open radiant

Changes to Sub-daily Rainfall Patterns in a Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westra, S.; Evans, J. P.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

2012-12-01

An algorithm is developed for disaggregating daily rainfall into sub-daily rainfall 'fragments' (continuous high temporal-resolution rainfall sequences whose total depth sums to the daily rainfall amount) under a future, warmer climate. The basis of the algorithm is to re-sample sub-daily fragments from the historical record conditional on the total daily rainfall amount and a range of temperature-based atmospheric predictors. The logic is that as the atmosphere warms, future rainfall patterns will be more reflective of historical rainfall patterns which occurred on warmer days at the same location, or at locations which have an atmospheric temperature profile more representative of expected future atmospheric conditions. It was found that the daily to sub-daily scaling relationship varied significantly by season and by location, with rainfall patterns on warmer seasons or at warmer locations typically exhibiting higher rainfall intensity occurring over shorter periods within a day, compared with cooler seasons and locations. Importantly, by regressing against temperature-based atmospheric covariates, this effect was substantially reduced, suggesting that the approach also may be valid when extrapolating to a future climate. An adjusted method of fragments algorithm was then applied to nine stations around Australia, with the results showing that when holding total daily rainfall constant, the maximum intensity of short duration rainfall increased by a median of about 5% per degree for the maximum 6 minute burst, and 3.5% for the maximum one hour burst, whereas the fraction of the day with no rainfall increased by a median of 1.5%. This highlights that a large proportion of the change to the distribution of rainfall is likely to occur at sub-daily timescales, with significant implications for many hydrological systems.

Resolution Dependence of Future Tropical Cyclone Projections of CAM5.1 in the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group Idealized Configurations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wehner, Michael; ., Prabhat; Reed, Kevin A.

The four idealized configurations of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group are integrated using the global Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1 at two different horizontal resolutions, approximately 100 and 25 km. The publicly released 0.9° × 1.3° configuration is a poor predictor of the sign of the 0.23° × 0.31° model configuration’s change in the total number of tropical storms in a warmer climate. However, it does predict the sign of the higher-resolution configuration’s change in the number of intense tropical cyclones in a warmer climate. In the 0.23° × 0.31° model configuration, both increased CO 2 concentrations and elevatedmore » sea surface temperature (SST) independently lower the number of weak tropical storms and shorten their average duration. Conversely, increased SST causes more intense tropical cyclones and lengthens their average duration, resulting in a greater number of intense tropical cyclone days globally. Increased SST also increased maximum tropical storm instantaneous precipitation rates across all storm intensities. It was found that while a measure of maximum potential intensity based on climatological mean quantities adequately predicts the 0.23° × 0.31° model’s forced response in its most intense simulated tropical cyclones, a related measure of cyclogenesis potential fails to predict the model’s actual cyclogenesis response to warmer SSTs. These analyses lead to two broader conclusions: 1) Projections of future tropical storm activity obtained by a direct tracking of tropical storms simulated by coarse-resolution climate models must be interpreted with caution. 2) Projections of future tropical cyclogenesis obtained from metrics of model behavior that are based solely on changes in long-term climatological fields and tuned to historical records must also be interpreted with caution.« less

Resolution Dependence of Future Tropical Cyclone Projections of CAM5.1 in the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group Idealized Configurations

DOE PAGES

Wehner, Michael; ., Prabhat; Reed, Kevin A.; ...

2015-05-12

The four idealized configurations of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group are integrated using the global Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1 at two different horizontal resolutions, approximately 100 and 25 km. The publicly released 0.9° × 1.3° configuration is a poor predictor of the sign of the 0.23° × 0.31° model configuration’s change in the total number of tropical storms in a warmer climate. However, it does predict the sign of the higher-resolution configuration’s change in the number of intense tropical cyclones in a warmer climate. In the 0.23° × 0.31° model configuration, both increased CO 2 concentrations and elevatedmore » sea surface temperature (SST) independently lower the number of weak tropical storms and shorten their average duration. Conversely, increased SST causes more intense tropical cyclones and lengthens their average duration, resulting in a greater number of intense tropical cyclone days globally. Increased SST also increased maximum tropical storm instantaneous precipitation rates across all storm intensities. It was found that while a measure of maximum potential intensity based on climatological mean quantities adequately predicts the 0.23° × 0.31° model’s forced response in its most intense simulated tropical cyclones, a related measure of cyclogenesis potential fails to predict the model’s actual cyclogenesis response to warmer SSTs. These analyses lead to two broader conclusions: 1) Projections of future tropical storm activity obtained by a direct tracking of tropical storms simulated by coarse-resolution climate models must be interpreted with caution. 2) Projections of future tropical cyclogenesis obtained from metrics of model behavior that are based solely on changes in long-term climatological fields and tuned to historical records must also be interpreted with caution.« less

Agroecosystem productivity in a warmer and CO2 enriched atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernacchi, Carl; Köhler, Iris; Ort, Donald; Long, Steven; Clemente, Thomas

2017-04-01

A number of in-field manipulative experiments have been conducted that address the response of key ecosystem services of major agronomic species to rising CO2. Global warming, however, is inextricably linked to rising greenhouse gases in general, of which CO2 is the most dominant. Therefore, agroecosystem functioning in future conditions requires an understanding of plant responses to both rising CO2 and increased temperatures. Few in-field manipulative experiments have been conducted that supplement both heating and CO2 above background concentrations. Here, the results of six years of experimentation using a coupled Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) technology with variable output infrared heating arrays are reported. The manipulative experiment increased temperatures (+ 3.5˚ C) and CO2 (+ 200 μmol mol-1) above background levels for on two major agronomic crop species grown throughout the world, Zea mays (maize) and Glycine max (soybean). The first phase of this research addresses the response of plant physiological parameters to growth in elevated CO2 and warmer temperatures for maize and soybean grown in an open-air manipulative experiment. The results show that any increase in ecosystem productivity associated with rising CO2 is either similar or is offset by growth at higher temperatures, inconsistent with the perceived benefits of higher CO2 plus warmer temperatures on agroecosystem productivity. The second phase of this research addresses the opportunity to genetically modify soybean to allow for improved productivity under high CO2 and warmer temperatures by increasing a key photosynthetic carbon reduction cycle enzyme, SPBase. The results from this research demonstrates that manipulation of the photosynthetic pathway can lead to higher productivity in high CO2 and temperature relative to the wild-type control soybean. Overall, this research advances the understanding of the physiological responses of two major crops, and the impact on ecosystem services

Evidence of a Cooler Continental Climate in East China during the Warm Early Cenozoic.

PubMed

Zhang, Qian-Qian; Smith, Thierry; Yang, Jian; Li, Cheng-Sen

2016-01-01

The early Cenozoic was characterized by a very warm climate especially during the Early Eocene. To understand climatic changes in eastern Asia, we reconstructed the Early Eocene vegetation and climate based on palynological data of a borehole from Wutu coal mine, East China and evaluated the climatic differences between eastern Asia and Central Europe. The Wutu palynological assemblages indicated a warm temperate vegetation succession comprising mixed needle- and broad-leaved forests. Three periods of vegetation succession over time were recognized. The changes of palynomorph relative abundance indicated that period 1 was warm and humid, period 2 was relatively warmer and wetter, and period 3 was cooler and drier again. The climatic parameters estimated by the coexistence approach (CA) suggested that the Early Eocene climate in Wutu was warmer and wetter. Mean annual temperature (MAT) was approximately 16°C and mean annual precipitation (MAP) was 800-1400 mm. Comparison of the Early Eocene climatic parameters of Wutu with those of 39 other fossil floras of different age in East China, reveals that 1) the climate became gradually cooler during the last 65 million years, with MAT dropping by 9.3°C. This cooling trend coincided with the ocean temperature changes but with weaker amplitude; 2) the Early Eocene climate was cooler in East China than in Central Europe; 3) the cooling trend in East China (MAT dropped by 6.9°C) was gentler than in Central Europe (MAT dropped by 13°C) during the last 45 million years.

Evidence of a Cooler Continental Climate in East China during the Warm Early Cenozoic

PubMed Central

Zhang, Qian-Qian; Smith, Thierry; Yang, Jian; Li, Cheng-Sen

2016-01-01

The early Cenozoic was characterized by a very warm climate especially during the Early Eocene. To understand climatic changes in eastern Asia, we reconstructed the Early Eocene vegetation and climate based on palynological data of a borehole from Wutu coal mine, East China and evaluated the climatic differences between eastern Asia and Central Europe. The Wutu palynological assemblages indicated a warm temperate vegetation succession comprising mixed needle- and broad-leaved forests. Three periods of vegetation succession over time were recognized. The changes of palynomorph relative abundance indicated that period 1 was warm and humid, period 2 was relatively warmer and wetter, and period 3 was cooler and drier again. The climatic parameters estimated by the coexistence approach (CA) suggested that the Early Eocene climate in Wutu was warmer and wetter. Mean annual temperature (MAT) was approximately 16°C and mean annual precipitation (MAP) was 800–1400 mm. Comparison of the Early Eocene climatic parameters of Wutu with those of 39 other fossil floras of different age in East China, reveals that 1) the climate became gradually cooler during the last 65 million years, with MAT dropping by 9.3°C. This cooling trend coincided with the ocean temperature changes but with weaker amplitude; 2) the Early Eocene climate was cooler in East China than in Central Europe; 3) the cooling trend in East China (MAT dropped by 6.9°C) was gentler than in Central Europe (MAT dropped by 13°C) during the last 45 million years. PMID:27196048

Shifts in climate suitability for wine production as a result of climate change in a temperate climate wine region of Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irimia, Liviu Mihai; Patriche, Cristian Valeriu; Quenol, Hervé; Sfîcă, Lucian; Foss, Chris

2018-02-01

Climate change is causing important shifts in the suitability of regions for wine production. Fine scale mapping of these shifts helps us to understand the evolution of vineyard climates, and to find solutions through viticultural adaptation. The aim of this study is to identify and map the structural and spatial shifts that occurred in the climatic suitability for wine production of the Cotnari wine growing region (Romania) between 1961 and 2013. Discontinuities in trends of temperature were identified, and the averages and trends of 13 climatic parameters for the 1961 to 1980 and 1981 to 2013 time periods were analysed. Using the averages of these climatic parameters, climate suitability for wine production was calculated at a resolution of 30 m and mapped for each time period, and the changes analysed. The results indicate shifts in the area's historic climatic profile, due to an increase of heliothermal resources and precipitation constancy. The area's climate suitability for wine production was modified by the loss of climate suitability for white table wines, sparkling wines and wine for distillates; shifts in suitability to higher altitudes by about 67 m, and a 48.6% decrease in the area suitable for quality white wines; and the occurrence of suitable climates for red wines at lower altitudes. The study showed that climate suitability for wine production has a multi-level spatial structure, with classes requiring a cooler climate being located at a higher altitude than those requiring a warmer climate. Climate change has therefore resulted in the shift of climate suitability classes for wine production to higher altitudes.

Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, F.; Coats, S.; Stocker, T. F.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Sanderson, B. M.; Raible, C.; Smerdon, J. E.

2017-12-01

The large socioeconomic costs of droughts make them a crucial target for impact assessments of climate change scenarios. Using multiple drought metrics and a set of simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) targeting 1.5°C and 2°C above preindustrial global mean temperatures, we investigate changes in aridity and the risk of consecutive drought years. The latter metric is motivated by recent droughts in California and the US Southwest in general, where consecutive years of moderate precipitation deficit can quickly lead to significant drought and elevated pressure on water resources. If warming is limited to 2°C, these simulations suggest little change in drought risk for the U.S. Southwest and Central Plains compared to present day, an interesting result that arises from a delicate balance between increases in evaporative demand and precipitation in CESM in that region. In the Mediterranean, central Europe, and a number of other regions across the globe, however, drought risk increases significantly for both 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets, and the additional 0.5°C of the 2°C climate leads to significantly higher drought risk. Our study suggests that limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, as aspired to by the Paris Climate Agreement, may have benefits for future drought risk but that such benefits may be regional and in some cases highly uncertain. We will therefore also discuss the robustness of results across different drought metrics as well as the model uncertainties associated with drought projections for low warming targets.

Climate change and associated fire potential for the south-eastern United States in the 21st century

Treesearch

Anthony P. Bedel; Thomas L. Mote; Scott L. Goodrick

2013-01-01

Climate models indicate that the climate of the south-eastern US will experience increasing temperatures and associated evapotranspiration in the 21st century. The current study found that conditions in the south-eastern US will likely become drier overall, given a warmer environment during future winter and spring seasons. This study examined the potential effects of...

Climate tolerances and trait choices shape continental patterns of urban tree biodiversity

Treesearch

G. Darrel Jenerette; Lorraine W. Clarke; Meghan L. Avolio; Diane E. Pataki; Thomas W. Gillespie; Stephanie Pincetl; Dave J. Nowak; Lucy R. Hutyra; Melissa McHale; Joseph P. McFadden; Michael Alonzo

2016-01-01

Aim. We propose and test a climate tolerance and trait choice hypothesis of urban macroecological variation in which strong filtering associated with low winter temperatures restricts urban biodiversity while weak filtering associated with warmer temperatures and irrigation allows dispersal of species from a global source pool, thereby...

Climate Controls on Carbon Sequestration in Eastern North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peteet, D. M.; Renik, B.; Maenza-Gmeich, T.; Kurdyla, D.; Guilderson, T.

2002-01-01

Mid-latitude forest ecosystems have been proposed as a "missing sink" today. The role of soils (including wetlands) in this proposed sink is a very important unknown. In order to make estimates of future climate change effects on carbon storage, we can examine past wetland carbon sequestration. How did past climate change affect net wetland carbon storage? We present long-term data from existing wetland sites used for paleoclimate reconstruction to assess the net carbon storage in wetland over the last 15000 years. During times of colder and wetter climate, many mid-latitude sites show increases in carbon storage, while past warmer, drier climates produced decreases in storage. Comparison among bog, fen, swamp, and tidal marsh are demonstrated for the Hudson Valley region.

Predicted responses of arctic and alpine ecosystems to altered seasonality under climate change.

PubMed

Ernakovich, Jessica G; Hopping, Kelly A; Berdanier, Aaron B; Simpson, Rodney T; Kachergis, Emily J; Steltzer, Heidi; Wallenstein, Matthew D

2014-10-01

Global climate change is already having significant impacts on arctic and alpine ecosystems, and ongoing increases in temperature and altered precipitation patterns will affect the strong seasonal patterns that characterize these temperature-limited systems. The length of the potential growing season in these tundra environments is increasing due to warmer temperatures and earlier spring snow melt. Here, we compare current and projected climate and ecological data from 20 Northern Hemisphere sites to identify how seasonal changes in the physical environment due to climate change will alter the seasonality of arctic and alpine ecosystems. We find that although arctic and alpine ecosystems appear similar under historical climate conditions, climate change will lead to divergent responses, particularly in the spring and fall shoulder seasons. As seasonality changes in the Arctic, plants will advance the timing of spring phenological events, which could increase plant nutrient uptake, production, and ecosystem carbon (C) gain. In alpine regions, photoperiod will constrain spring plant phenology, limiting the extent to which the growing season can lengthen, especially if decreased water availability from earlier snow melt and warmer summer temperatures lead to earlier senescence. The result could be a shorter growing season with decreased production and increased nutrient loss. These contrasting alpine and arctic ecosystem responses will have cascading effects on ecosystems, affecting community structure, biotic interactions, and biogeochemistry. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Photosynthetic oxygen production in a warmer ocean: the Sargasso Sea as a case study.

PubMed

Richardson, Katherine; Bendtsen, Jørgen

2017-09-13

Photosynthetic O 2 production can be an important source of oxygen in sub-surface ocean waters especially in permanently stratified oligotrophic regions of the ocean where O 2 produced in deep chlorophyll maxima (DCM) is not likely to be outgassed. Today, permanently stratified regions extend across approximately 40% of the global ocean and their extent is expected to increase in a warmer ocean. Thus, predicting future ocean oxygen conditions requires a better understanding of the potential response of photosynthetic oxygen production to a warmer ocean. Based on our own and published observations of water column processes in oligotrophic regions, we develop a one-dimensional water column model describing photosynthetic oxygen production in the Sargasso Sea to quantify the importance of photosynthesis for the downward flux of O 2 and examine how it may be influenced in a warmer ocean. Photosynthesis is driven in the model by vertical mixing of nutrients (including eddy-induced mixing) and diazotrophy and is found to substantially increase the downward O 2 flux relative to physical-chemical processes alone. Warming (2°C) surface waters does not significantly change oxygen production at the DCM. Nor does a 15% increase in re-mineralization rate (assuming Q 10  = 2; 2°C warming) have significant effect on net sub-surface oxygen accumulation. However, changes in the relative production of particulate (POM) and dissolved organic material (DOM) generate relatively large changes in net sub-surface oxygen production. As POM/DOM production is a function of plankton community composition, this implies plankton biodiversity and food web structure may be important factors influencing O 2 production in a warmer ocean.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Photosynthetic oxygen production in a warmer ocean: the Sargasso Sea as a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, Katherine; Bendtsen, Jørgen

2017-08-01

Photosynthetic O2 production can be an important source of oxygen in sub-surface ocean waters especially in permanently stratified oligotrophic regions of the ocean where O2 produced in deep chlorophyll maxima (DCM) is not likely to be outgassed. Today, permanently stratified regions extend across approximately 40% of the global ocean and their extent is expected to increase in a warmer ocean. Thus, predicting future ocean oxygen conditions requires a better understanding of the potential response of photosynthetic oxygen production to a warmer ocean. Based on our own and published observations of water column processes in oligotrophic regions, we develop a one-dimensional water column model describing photosynthetic oxygen production in the Sargasso Sea to quantify the importance of photosynthesis for the downward flux of O2 and examine how it may be influenced in a warmer ocean. Photosynthesis is driven in the model by vertical mixing of nutrients (including eddy-induced mixing) and diazotrophy and is found to substantially increase the downward O2 flux relative to physical-chemical processes alone. Warming (2°C) surface waters does not significantly change oxygen production at the DCM. Nor does a 15% increase in re-mineralization rate (assuming Q10 = 2; 2°C warming) have significant effect on net sub-surface oxygen accumulation. However, changes in the relative production of particulate (POM) and dissolved organic material (DOM) generate relatively large changes in net sub-surface oxygen production. As POM/DOM production is a function of plankton community composition, this implies plankton biodiversity and food web structure may be important factors influencing O2 production in a warmer ocean. This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'.

Climate during the Roman and early-medieval periods in North-western Europe: a review of climate reconstructions from terrestrial archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichelmann, Dana F. C.; Gouw-Bouman, Marjolein T. I. J.; Hoek, Wim Z.; van Lanen, Rowin J.; Stouthamer, Esther; Jansma, Esther

2016-04-01

High-resolution palaeoclimate reconstructions are essential to identify possible influences of climate variability on landscape evolution and landscape-related cultural changes (e.g., shifting settlement patterns and long-distance trade relations). North-western Europe is an ideal research area for comparison between climate variability and cultural transitions given its geomorphological diversity and the significant cultural changes that took place in this region during the last two millennia (e.g., the decline of the Roman Empire and the transition to medieval kingdoms). Compared to more global climate records, such as ice cores and marine sediments, terrestrial climate proxies have the advantage of representing a relatively short response time to regional climatic change. Furthermore for this region large quantity of climate reconstructions is available covering the last millennium, whereas for the first millennium AD only few high resolution climate reconstructions are available. We compiled climate reconstructions for sites in North-western Europe from the literature and its underlying data. All these reconstructions cover the time period of AD 1 to 1000. We only selected data with an annual to decadal resolution and a minimum resolution of 50 years. This resulted in 18 climate reconstructions from different archives such as chironomids (1), pollen (4), Sphagnum cellulose (1), stalagmites (6), testate amoebae (4), and tree-rings (2). The compilation of the different temperature reconstructions shows similar trends in most of the records. Colder conditions since AD 300 for a period of approximately 400 years and warmer conditions after AD 700 become apparent. A contradicting signal is found before AD 300 with warmer conditions indicated by most of the records but not all. This is likely the result of the use of different proxies, reflecting temperatures linked to different seasons. The compilation of the different precipitation reconstructions also show similar

Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a western river's water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R. M.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W. G.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K. C.

2014-11-01

An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and the protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss (e.g., via increased evapotranspiration and lower growing season flows leading to reduced riparian wetland inundation) or altered land use patterns. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrient loads in the snowmelt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, western US. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that, in the Sprague River, (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high-flow season under warmer, wetter climate projections or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

The relationship between ethical climate at work and job satisfaction among nurses in Tehran.

PubMed

Joolaee, Soodabeh; Jalili, Hamid Reza; Rafii, Forough; Hajibabaee, Fatemeh; Haghani, Hamid

2013-01-01

This study aimed to provide an understanding of the relationship between the ethical climate at the workplace and job satisfaction among nurses. 210 nurses working in selected wards in the Tehran University of Medical Sciences were asked to fill out questionnaires on their work environment and level of job satisfaction. The data collection tools included a questionnaire to obtain demographic data, the Olson moral climate questionnaire and Minnesota job satisfaction questionnaire. The data were analysed using SPSS software version 14. We found a significant positive relationship between the ethical climate and the level of job satisfaction among the nurses. Among the demographic variables, the working shift, income level and type of duties allocated had a significant relationship with job satisfaction. Hospital managements should pay attention to the factors influencing job motivation among nurses, including the ethical climate of the work environment.

Work-related injury factors and safety climate perception in truck drivers.

PubMed

Anderson, Naomi J; Smith, Caroline K; Byrd, Jesse L

2017-08-01

The trucking industry has a high burden of work-related injuries. This study examined factors, such as safety climate perceptions, that may impact injury risk. A random sample of 9800 commercial driver's license holders (CDL) were sent surveys, only 4360 were eligible truck drivers. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression models were developed to describe the population and identify variables associated with work-related injury. 2189 drivers completed the pertinent interview questions. Driving less-than-truckload, daytime sleepiness, pressure to work faster, and having a poor composite score for safety perceptions were all associated with increased likelihood of work-related injury. Positive safety perception score was protective for odds of work-related injury, and increased claim filing when injured. Positive psychological safety climate is associated with decreased likelihood of work-related injury and increased likelihood that a driver injured on the job files a workers' compensation claim. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Sensitivity of leaf size and shape to climate: Global patterns and paleoclimatic applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peppe, D.J.; Royer, D.L.; Cariglino, B.; Oliver, S.Y.; Newman, S.; Leight, E.; Enikolopov, G.; Fernandez-Burgos, M.; Herrera, F.; Adams, J.M.; Correa, E.; Currano, E.D.; Erickson, J.M.; Hinojosa, L.F.; Hoganson, J.W.; Iglesias, A.; Jaramillo, C.A.; Johnson, K.R.; Jordan, G.J.; Kraft, N.J.B.; Lovelock, E.C.; Lusk, C.H.; Niinemets, U.; Penuelas, J.; Rapson, G.; Wing, S.L.; Wright, I.J.

2011-01-01

Paleobotanists have long used models based on leaf size and shape to reconstruct paleoclimate. However, most models incorporate a single variable or use traits that are not physiologically or functionally linked to climate, limiting their predictive power. Further, they often underestimate paleotemperature relative to other proxies. Here we quantify leaf-climate correlations from 92 globally distributed, climatically diverse sites, and explore potential confounding factors. Multiple linear regression models for mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) are developed and applied to nine well-studied fossil floras. We find that leaves in cold climates typically have larger, more numerous teeth, and are more highly dissected. Leaf habit (deciduous vs evergreen), local water availability, and phylogenetic history all affect these relationships. Leaves in wet climates are larger and have fewer, smaller teeth. Our multivariate MAT and MAP models offer moderate improvements in precision over univariate approaches (??4.0 vs 4.8??C for MAT) and strong improvements in accuracy. For example, our provisional MAT estimates for most North American fossil floras are considerably warmer and in better agreement with independent paleoclimate evidence. Our study demonstrates that the inclusion of additional leaf traits that are functionally linked to climate improves paleoclimate reconstructions. This work also illustrates the need for better understanding of the impact of phylogeny and leaf habit on leaf-climate relationships. ?? 2011 The Authors. New Phytologist ?? 2011 New Phytologist Trust.

Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts.

PubMed

Doak, Daniel F; Morris, William F

2010-10-21

To persist, species are expected to shift their geographical ranges polewards or to higher elevations as the Earth's climate warms. However, although many species' ranges have shifted in historical times, many others have not, or have shifted only at the high-latitude or high-elevation limits, leading to range expansions rather than contractions. Given these idiosyncratic responses to climate warming, and their varied implications for species' vulnerability to climate change, a critical task is to understand why some species have not shifted their ranges, particularly at the equatorial or low-elevation limits, and whether such resilience will last as warming continues. Here we show that compensatory changes in demographic rates are buffering southern populations of two North American tundra plants against the negative effects of a warming climate, slowing their northward range shifts, but that this buffering is unlikely to continue indefinitely. Southern populations of both species showed lower survival and recruitment but higher growth of individual plants, possibly owing to longer, warmer growing seasons. Because of these and other compensatory changes, the population growth rates of southern populations are not at present lower than those of northern ones. However, continued warming may yet prove detrimental, as most demographic rates that improved in moderately warmer years declined in the warmest years, with the potential to drive future population declines. Our results emphasize the need for long-term, range-wide measurement of all population processes to detect demographic compensation and to identify nonlinear responses that may lead to sudden range shifts as climatic tipping points are exceeded.

Potential ecological and economic consequences of climate-driven agricultural and silvicultural transformations in central Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Zander, Evgeniya V.; Pyzhev, Anton I.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Soja, Amber J.

2014-05-01

Increased warming predicted from general circulation models (GCMs) by the end of the century is expected to dramatically impact Siberian forests. Both natural climate-change-caused disturbance (weather, wildfire, infestation) and anthropogenic disturbance (legal/illegal logging) has increased, and their impact on Siberian boreal forest has been mounting over the last three decades. The Siberian BioClimatic Model (SiBCliM) was used to simulate Siberian forests, and the resultant maps show a severely decreased forest that has shifted northwards and a changed composition. Predicted dryer climates would enhance the risks of high fire danger and thawing permafrost, both of which challenge contemporary ecosystems. Our current goal is to evaluate the ecological and economic consequences of climate warming, to optimise economic loss/gain effects in forestry versus agriculture, to question the relative economic value of supporting forestry, agriculture or a mixed agro-forestry at the southern forest border in central Siberia predicted to undergo the most noticeable landcover and landuse changes. We developed and used forest and agricultural bioclimatic models to predict forest shifts; novel tree species and their climatypes are introduced in a warmer climate and/or potential novel agriculture are introduced with a potential variety of crops by the end of the century. We applied two strategies to estimate climate change effects, motivated by forest disturbance. One is a genetic means of assisting trees and forests to be harmonized with a changing climate by developing management strategies for seed transfer to locations that are best ecologically suited to the genotypes in future climates. The second strategy is the establishment of agricultural lands in new forest-steppe and steppe habitats, because the forests would retreat northwards. Currently, food, forage, and biofuel crops primarily reside in the steppe and forest-steppe zones which are known to have favorable

Thrill and adventure seeking in risky driving at work: The moderating role of safety climate.

PubMed

Wishart, Darren; Somoray, Klaire; Evenhuis, Amanda

2017-12-01

Introduction Within many industrialized countries, the leading cause of worker fatalities and serious injuries can be attributed to road trauma. In non-occupational research, high levels of sensation seeking personality, and specifically thrill and adventure seeking, have been associated with risky driving behaviors. In work driving literature, high organizational safety climate has been associated with reduced risky driving in work drivers. However, the extent that factors such as safety climate and thrill seeking interact in regard to work driving safety remains unclear, and the current research examined this interaction. Methods A total of 1,011 work drivers from four organizations participated in the research. Surveys were distributed online and hardcopies were sent via mail. The survey included measures of thrill and adventure seeking, safety climate and work-related driving behaviors, as well as questions relating to participant demographics and information about their work driving. Results The results demonstrated that safety climate significantly moderated the effect of thrill and adventure seeking trait on driving errors, driving violations, and driving while fatigued. Conclusion These results suggest that the development of a strong safety climate has the potential to improve work driving safety outcomes by reducing the impact of particular personality traits such as thrill seeking within an organizational context. Practical application To improve work driving safety, organizations and management need to develop strategies to encourage and foster positive work driving safety climate, particularly within work settings that may attract thrill and adventure seeking employees. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Climate change impact on microclimate of work environment related to occupational health and productivity.

PubMed

Marchetti, Enrico; Capone, Pasquale; Freda, Daniela

2016-01-01

Climate change is a global emergency that influences human health and occupational safety. Global warming characterized by an increase in temperature of the ambience and humidity affects human health directly impairing body thermoregulation with serious consequences: dehydration, fatigue, heat stroke and even death. Several studies have demonstrated negative effects of climate change on working populations in a wide variety of workplaces with particular regard to outdoor and uncooled indoor workplaces. Most vulnerable workers are outdoor workers in tropical and subtropical countries usually involved in heavy labor during hot seasons. Many of the consequences therefore, regarding working people are possible, even without health symptoms by reducing work productivity. The scope of this review is to investigate effects of climate change on workers both in relation to health and work productivity. This study has been realized by analyzing recent international literature. In order to reduce negative effects of climate change on working populations it is essential to implement preventive measures with a multidisciplinary strategy limiting health risks and improving work productivity.

A Global Perspective on Warmer Droughts as a Key Driver of Forest Disturbances and Tree Mortality (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, C. D.

2013-12-01

Recent global warming, in concert with episodic droughts, is causing elevated levels of both chronic and acute forest water stress across large regions. Such increases in water stress affect forest dynamics in multiple ways, including by amplifying the incidence and severity of many significant forest disturbances, particularly drought-induced tree mortality, wildfire, and outbreaks of damaging insects and diseases. Emerging global-scale patterns of drought-related forest die-off are presented, including a newly updated map overview of documented drought- and heat-induced tree mortality events from around the world, demonstrating the vulnerability of all major forest types to forest drought stress, even in typically wet environments. Comparative patterns of drought stress and associated forest disturbances are reviewed for several regions (southwestern Australia, Inner Asia, western North America, Mediterranean Basin), including interactions among climate and various disturbance processes. From the Southwest USA, research is presented that derives a tree-ring-based Forest Drought Stress Index (FDSI) for the most regionally-widespread conifer species (Pinus edulis, Pinus ponderosa, and Pseudotsuga menziesii), demonstrating recent escalation of FDSI to extreme levels relative to the past 1000 years, due to both drought and especially warming. This new work further highlights strong correlations between drought stress and amplified forest disturbances (fire, bark beetle outbreaks), and projects that by CE 2050 anticipated regional warming will cause mean FDSI values to reach historically unprecedented levels that may exceed thresholds for the survival of current tree species in large portions of their current range in the Southwest. Similar patterns of recent climate-amplified forest disturbance risk are apparent from a variety of relatively dry regions across this planet, and given climate projections for substantially warmer temperatures and greater drought stress

Late Holocene climate dynamics: A high-resolution sediment core from Maxwell Bay, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hass, H. C.; Kuhn, G.; Monien, P.; Brumsack, H.

2009-12-01

Presently, the Antarctic Peninsula belongs to the fastest warming regions on Earth. Meltwater discharge increases, glaciers retreat and as a consequence the coastal ecosystems change at an ever-increasing pace. The goal of our study is to reconstruct the timing and impact of historical climate phases such as the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) as analogs for the recent climate development, and to identify the marine sedimentary processes affected by the changing climate. We present results from a 928 cm long gravity core from Maxwell Bay, King George Island, Antarctica. The core spans the past c. 1700 years. Sedimentation at the core site is governed by sediments from the tributary fjords entering Maxwell Bay, namely Potter and Marian coves and Collins Harbor. There are two sediment classes: Class 1 is characterized by two grain-size subpopulations. The coarser one represents the bedload fraction, whereas the finer one is interpreted to represent meltwater-induced suspension load. Since meltwater is restricted to the summer season, it is suggested that Class 1 sediments characterize periods of intense summer-meltwater production and thus, warmer climate phases. Class 2 samples show the same coarse grain-size mode but they lack the fine subpopulation. We suggest that these sediments indicate less intense summer-meltwater production and thus colder climatic conditions. The mean grain size suggests that average bottom current speeds were slightly higher during colder climate phases than during the warmer phases. Bioproduction at the core location and in the sediment source areas as reflected by bio-productivity proxies (TOC, bio-opal) is not always positively related to climate since warm-phase meltwater discharge adversely affects bioproduction through light attenuation by turbid waters. Furthermore, during warmer phases the TOC signal becomes diluted due to increased deposition of terrigenous fine sediment. Comparison with Antarctic

Association of nurse work environment and safety climate on patient mortality: A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Olds, Danielle M; Aiken, Linda H; Cimiotti, Jeannie P; Lake, Eileen T

2017-09-01

There are two largely distinct research literatures on the association of the nurse work environment and the safety climate on patient outcomes. To determine whether hospital safety climate and work environment make comparable or distinct contributions to patient mortality. Cross-sectional secondary analysis of linked datasets of Registered Nurse survey responses, adult acute care discharge records, and hospital characteristics. Acute care hospitals in California, Florida, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. The sample included 600 hospitals linked to 27,009 nurse survey respondents and 852,974 surgical patients. Nurse survey data included assessments of the nurse work environment and hospital safety climate. The outcome of interest was in-hospital mortality. Data analyses included descriptive statistics and multivariate random intercept logistic regression. In a fully adjusted model, a one standard deviation increase in work environment score was associated with an 8.1% decrease in the odds of mortality (OR 0.919, p<0.001). A one-standard deviation increase in safety climate score was similarly associated with a 7.7% decrease in the odds of mortality (OR 0.923, p<0.001). However, when work environment and safety climate were modeled together, the effect of the work environment remained significant, while safety climate became a non-significant predictor of mortality odds (OR 0.940, p=0.035 vs. OR 0.971, p=0.316). We found that safety climate perception is not predictive of patient mortality beyond the effect of the nurse work environment. To advance hospital safety and quality and improve patient outcomes, organizational interventions should be directed toward improving nurse work environments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marine Climate Archives across the Medieval Climate Anomaly-Little Ice Age Transition from Viking and Medieval Age Shells, Orkney, Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surge, D. M.; Barrett, J. H.

2013-12-01

Proxy records reconstructing marine climatic conditions across the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ~900-1350 AD) and Little Ice Age (LIA; ~1350-1850) are strongly biased towards decadal to annual resolution and summer/growing seasons. Here we present new archives of seasonal variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) from shells of the European limpet, Patella vulgata, which accumulated in Viking and medieval shell and fish middens at Quoygrew on Westray, Orkney. SST was reconstructed at submonthly resolution using oxygen isotope ratios preserved in shells from the 12th and mid 15th centuries (MCA and LIA, respectively). MCA shells recorded warmer summers and colder winters by ~2 degrees C relative to the late 20th Century (1961-1990). Therefore, seasonality was higher during the MCA relative to the late 20th century. Without the benefit of seasonal resolution, SST averaged from shell time series would be weighted toward the fast-growing summer season, resulting in the conclusion that the early MCA was warmer than the late 20th century by ~1°C. This conclusion is broadly true for the summer season, but not true for the winter season. Higher seasonality and cooler winters during early medieval times may result from a weakened North Atlantic Oscillation index. In contrast, the LIA shells have a more a variable inter-annual pattern. Some years record cooler summers and winters relative to the MCA shells and late 20th century, whereas other years record warmer summers and cooler winters similar to the MCA shells. Our findings provide a new test for the accuracy of seasonal amplitudes resulting from paleoclimate model experiments.

Climate, fire size, and biophysical setting control fire severity and spatial pattern in the northern Cascade Range, USA

Treesearch

C. Alina Cansler; Donald. McKenzie

2014-01-01

Warmer and drier climate over the past few decades has brought larger fire sizes and increased annual area burned in forested ecosystems of western North America, and continued increases in annual area burned are expected due to climate change. As warming continues, fires may also increase in severity and produce larger contiguous patches of severely burned areas. We...

Air quality and climate--synergies and trade-offs.

PubMed

von Schneidemesser, Erika; Monks, Paul S

2013-07-01

Air quality and climate are often treated as separate science and policy areas. Air quality encompasses the here-and-now of pollutant emissions, atmospheric transformations and their direct effect on human and ecosystem health. Climate change deals with the drivers leading to a warmer world and the consequences of that. These two science and policy issues are inexorably linked via common pollutants, such as ozone (methane) and black carbon. This short review looks at the new scientific evidence around so-called "short-lived climate forcers" and the growing realisation that a way to meet short-term climate change targets may be through the control of "air quality" pollutants. None of the options discussed here can replace reduction of long-lived greenhouse gases, such as CO2, which is required for any long-term climate change mitigation strategy. An overview is given of the underlying science, remaining uncertainties, and some of the synergies and trade-offs for addressing air quality and climate in the science and policy context.

The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lafferty, Kevin D.

2009-01-01

The projected global increase in the distribution and prevalence of infectious diseases with climate change suggests a pending societal crisis. The subject is increasingly attracting the attention of health professionals and climate-change scientists, particularly with respect to malaria and other vector-transmitted human diseases. The result has been the emergence of a crisis discipline, reminiscent of the early phases of conservation biology. Latitudinal, altitudinal, seasonal, and interannual associations between climate and disease along with historical and experimental evidence suggest that climate, along with many other factors, can affect infectious diseases in a nonlinear fashion. However, although the globe is significantly warmer than it was a century ago, there is little evidence that climate change has already favored infectious diseases. While initial projections suggested dramatic future increases in the geographic range of infectious diseases, recent models predict range shifts in disease distributions, with little net increase in area. Many factors can affect infectious disease, and some may overshadow the effects of climate.

Getting into hot water: sick guppies frequent warmer thermal conditions.

PubMed

Mohammed, Ryan S; Reynolds, Michael; James, Joanna; Williams, Chris; Mohammed, Azad; Ramsubhag, Adesh; van Oosterhout, Cock; Cable, Jo

2016-07-01

Ectotherms depend on the environmental temperature for thermoregulation and exploit thermal regimes that optimise physiological functioning. They may also frequent warmer conditions to up-regulate their immune response against parasite infection and/or impede parasite development. This adaptive response, known as 'behavioural fever', has been documented in various taxa including insects, reptiles and fish, but only in response to endoparasite infections. Here, a choice chamber experiment was used to investigate the thermal preferences of a tropical freshwater fish, the Trinidadian guppy (Poecilia reticulata), when infected with a common helminth ectoparasite Gyrodactylus turnbulli, in female-only and mixed-sex shoals. The temperature tolerance of G. turnbulli was also investigated by monitoring parasite population trajectories on guppies maintained at a continuous 18, 24 or 32 °C. Regardless of shoal composition, infected fish frequented the 32 °C choice chamber more often than when uninfected, significantly increasing their mean temperature preference. Parasites maintained continuously at 32 °C decreased to extinction within 3 days, whereas mean parasite abundance increased on hosts incubated at 18 and 24 °C. We show for the first time that gyrodactylid-infected fish have a preference for warmer waters and speculate that sick fish exploit the upper thermal tolerances of their parasites to self medicate.

EMS providers' perceptions of safety climate and adherence to safe work practices.

PubMed

Eliseo, Laura J; Murray, Kate A; White, Laura F; Dyer, Sophia; Mitchell, Patricia A; Fernandez, William G

2012-01-01

Occupational injuries are an important source of morbidity for emergency medical services (EMS) providers. Previous work has shown that employee perceptions of an organization's commitment to safety (i.e., safety climate) correlate with adherence to safe practices. To assess the association between perceived safety climate and compliance with safety procedures in an urban EMS system with >100,000 calls/year. EMS providers were issued a self-administered survey that included questions on demographics, years of experience, perceived safety climate, and adherence to safety procedures. Safety climate was assessed with a 20-item validated instrument. Adherence to safety procedures was assessed with a nine-item list of safety behaviors. Strict adherence to safety procedures was defined as endorsing "agree" or "strongly agree" on 80% of items. The effect of safety climate on compliance with safe practices was estimated using multiple logistic regression. One hundred ninety-six of 221 providers (89%) completed surveys; 74% were male; the median age was 36-40 years; and the median amount of experience was 8 years. One hundred twenty-seven of 196 respondents (65%) reported strict adherence to safe work practice. Factor analysis confirmed the original six-factor grouping of questions; frequent safety-related feedback/training was significantly associated with safe practices (odds ratio [OR] = 2.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.01-4.51). EMS workers perceiving a high degree of perceived safety climate was associated with twofold greater odds of self-reported level of strict adherence to safe work practices. Frequent safety-related feedback/training was the one dimension of safety climate that had the strongest association with adherence to safe workplace behaviors.

Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.; Miguel, E.

2014-12-01

A rapidly growing body of research examines whether human conflict can be affected by climatic changes. Drawing from archaeology, criminology, economics, geography, history, political science, and psychology, we assemble and analyze the most rigorous quantitative studies and document, for the first time, a striking convergence of results. We find strong causal evidence linking climatic events to human conflict across a range of spatial and temporal scales and across all major regions of the world. The magnitude of climate's influence is substantial: for each one standard deviation (1sd) change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall, median estimates indicate that the frequency of interpersonal violence rises 4% and the frequency of intergroup conflict rises 14%. Because locations throughout the inhabited world are expected to warm 2sd to 4sd by 2050, amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large and critical impact of anthropogenic climate change.

Carbonaceous aerosol tracers in ice-cores record multi-decadal climate oscillations

PubMed Central

Seki, Osamu; Kawamura, Kimitaka; Bendle, James A. P.; Izawa, Yusuke; Suzuki, Ikuko; Shiraiwa, Takayuki; Fujii, Yoshiyuki

2015-01-01

Carbonaceous aerosols influence the climate via direct and indirect effects on radiative balance. However, the factors controlling the emissions, transport and role of carbonaceous aerosols in the climate system are highly uncertain. Here we investigate organic tracers in ice cores from Greenland and Kamchatka and find that, throughout the period covered by the records (1550 to 2000 CE), the concentrations and composition of biomass burning-, soil bacterial- and plant wax- tracers correspond to Arctic and regional temperatures as well as the warm season Arctic Oscillation (AO) over multi-decadal time-scales. Specifically, order of magnitude decreases (increases) in abundances of ice-core organic tracers, likely representing significant decreases (increases) in the atmospheric loading of carbonaceous aerosols, occur during colder (warmer) phases in the high latitudinal Northern Hemisphere. This raises questions about causality and possible carbonaceous aerosol feedback mechanisms. Our work opens new avenues for ice core research. Translating concentrations of organic tracers (μg/kg-ice or TOC) from ice-cores, into estimates of the atmospheric loading of carbonaceous aerosols (μg/m3) combined with new model constraints on the strength and sign of climate forcing by carbonaceous aerosols should be a priority for future research. PMID:26411576

75 FR 35458 - National Drinking Water Advisory Council's Climate Ready Water Utilities Working Group Meeting...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-22

... supportive environment in which a utility can take steps to be climate ready. In this meeting, the Working... Ready Water Utilities Working Group Meeting Announcement AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA... fourth in-person meeting of the Climate Ready Water Utilities (CRWU) Working Group of the National...

Response of the European ecosystems to climate change: a modelling approach for the 21st century.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dury, Marie; Warnant, Pierre; François, Louis; Henrot, Alexandra; Favre, Eric; Hambuckers, Alain

2010-05-01

According to projections, over the 21st century, significant climatic changes appear and will be strengthened all over the world with the continuing increase of the atmospheric CO2 level. Climate will be generally warmer with notably changes in the seasonality and in the precipitation regime. These changes will have major impacts on the environment and on the biodiversity of natural ecosystems. Geographic distribution of ecosystems may be modified since species will be driven to migrate towards more suitable areas (e. g., shifting of the arctic tree lines). The CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Carbon Assimilation in the Biosphere) forced with 21st century climate scenarios of the IPCC (ARPEGE-Climat model) is used to illustrate and analyse the potential impacts of climate change on tree species distribution and productivity over Europe. Changes in hydrological budget (e. g., runoff) and fire effects on forests will also be shown. Transient runs (1975-2100) with a new dynamic module introduced in CARAIB are performed to follow the future evolutions. In the new module, the processes of species establishment, competition and mortality due to stresses and disturbances have been improved. Among others, increased atmospheric CO2 and warmer climate increase tree productivity while drier conditions decrease it. Regions with more severe droughts will also be affected by an increase of wildfire frequency, which may have large impacts on vegetation density and distribution.

Climate fluctuations in the Czech Lands from AD 1500 compiled from various proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrovolný, Petr; Brázdil, Rudolf; Možný, Martin; Trnka, Miroslav; Řezníčková, Ladislava; Kotyza, Oldřich; Valášek, Hubert; Dolák, Lukáš

2017-04-01

The territory of the Czech Lands (recent Czech Republic) belongs to European areas well covered by dedrochronological, documentary and instrumental data which can be used for climate reconstructions for the last c. 500 years, i.e. for description of climate fluctuations during the greater part of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the subsequent period of the recent Global Warming. Synthesis of various existing reconstructions should help to create more consistent description of climate variability in that period in Central Europe. The contribution starts from characteristic of the basic features of three existing data sources and a general method of climate reconstruction. Monthly, seasonal and annual climate reconstructions based on different data are presented: a) temperature reconstructions derived from series of temperature indices, winter wheat harvest days and grape harvest days; b) precipitation reconstructions derived from series of precipitation indices and fir tree-rings; c) drought indices (SPI, SPEI, Z-index and PDSI) reconstructions derived from series of fir tree-rings, grape harvest days and documentary-based temperature and precipitation reconstructions. Basic features of past c. 500 years are represented by various time intervals of cooler and warmer climate on the one hand and wetter and drier climate on the other. Examples of such particularly warmer and drier period can be the 1530s (with extreme 1540 year) or colder and wetter conditions during the 1590s and 1690s. Outstanding extreme weather events during LIA in Central Europe are briefly mentioned and our findings are discussed with respect to climate fluctuations and forcings in wider European context. (This study was supported by Czech Science Foundation, project nos. 13-04291S and 17-10026S).

Work Safety Climate, Safety Behaviors, and Occupational Injuries of Youth Farmworkers in North Carolina

PubMed Central

Rodriguez, Guadalupe; Quandt, Sara A.; Arcury, Justin T.; Arcury, Thomas A.

2015-01-01

Objectives. The aims of this project were to describe the work safety climate and the association between occupational safety behaviors and injuries among hired youth farmworkers in North Carolina (n = 87). Methods. We conducted personal interviews among a cross-sectional sample of youth farmworkers aged 10 to 17 years. Results. The majority of youths reported that work safety practices were very important to management, yet 38% stated that supervisors were only interested in “doing the job quickly and cheaply.” Few youths reported appropriate work safety behavior, and 14% experienced an injury within the past 12 months. In bivariate analysis, perceptions of work safety climate were significantly associated with pesticide exposure risk factors for rewearing wet shoes (P = .01), wet clothes (P = .01), and shorts (P = .03). Conclusions. Youth farmworkers perceived their work safety climate as being poor. Although additional research is needed to support these findings, these results strengthen the need to increase employer awareness to improve the safety climate for protecting youth farmworkers from harmful exposures and injuries. PMID:25973817

Work climate and the mediating role of workplace bullying related to job performance, job satisfaction, and work ability: A study among hospital nurses.

PubMed

Olsen, Espen; Bjaalid, Gunhild; Mikkelsen, Aslaug

2017-11-01

To increase understanding of workplace bullying and its relation to work climate and different outcomes among nurses. Examine a proposed bullying model including both job resource and job demands, as well as nurse outcomes reflected in job performance, job satisfaction, and work ability. Workplace bullying has been identified as some of the most damaging mechanisms in workplace settings. It is important to increase understanding of workplace bullying in relation to work climate and different outcomes among nurses. This study adopted a cross-sectional web based survey design. A sample of 2946 Registered Nurses from four public Norwegian hospitals were collected during October 2014. We analysed data using descriptive statistics, correlations, Cronbach's alpa, confirmatory factor analyses, and structural equation modelling. The majority of work climate characteristics confirmed to influence workplace bullying, and additionally had direct influence on nurse outcomes; job performance, job satisfaction, and work ability. Bullying had a mediational role between most of the work climate dimensions and nurse outcomes. This study increases our understanding of organizational antecedent of bullying among nurses. Workplace bullying among nurses functions as a mediator between the majority of work climate dimensions and outcomes related to job satisfaction and work ability. Strategies to reduce bullying should look at the study finding and specifically job resources and job demands that influence bullying and nurse outcomes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

NOAA/NCEI/Regional Climate Services: Working with Partners and Stakeholders across a Wide Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mecray, E. L.

2015-12-01

Federal agencies all require plans to be prepared at the state level that outline the implementation of funding to address wildlife habitat, human health, transportation infrastructure, coastal zone management, environmental management, emergency management, and others. These plans are now requiring the consideration of changing climate conditions. So where does a state turn to discuss lessons learned, obtain tools and information to assess climate conditions, and to work with other states in their region? Regional networks and collaboratives are working to deliver this sector by sector. How do these networks work? Do they fit together in any way? What similarities and differences exist? Is anyone talking across these lines to find common climate information requirements? A sketch is forming that links these efforts, not by blending the sectors, but by finding the areas where coordination is critical, where information needs are common, and where delivery mechanisms can be streamlined. NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information's Regional Climate Services Directors have been working at the interface of stakeholder-driven information delivery since 2010. This talk will outline the regional climate services delivery framework for the Eastern Region, with examples of regional products and information.

Differential sensitivity to climate change of C and N cycling processes across soil horizons in a northern hardwood forest

Treesearch

Jorge Durán; Jennifer L. Morse; Alexandra Rodríguez; John L. Campbell; Lynn M. Christenson; Charles T. Driscoll; Timothy J. Fahey; Melany C. Fisk; Myron J. Mitchell; Pamela H. Templer; Peter M. Groffman

2017-01-01

Climate of the northern hardwood forests of North America will become significantly warmer in the coming decades. Associated increases in soil temperature, decreases in water availability and changes in winter snow pack and soil frost are likely to affect soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling. Most studies of the effects of climate change on soil function have...

Leadership, organizational climate, and working alliance in a children's mental health service system.

PubMed

Green, Amy E; Albanese, Brian J; Cafri, Guy; Aarons, Gregory A

2014-10-01

The goal of this study was to examine the relationships of transformational leadership and organizational climate with working alliance, in a children's mental health service system. Using multilevel structural equation modeling, the effect of leadership on working alliance was mediated by organizational climate. These results suggest that supervisors may be able to impact quality of care through improving workplace climate. Organizational factors should be considered in efforts to improve public sector services. Understanding these issues is important for program leaders, mental health service providers, and consumers because they can affect both the way services are delivered and ultimately, clinical outcomes.

Leadership, Organizational Climate, and Working Alliance in a Children's Mental Health Service System

PubMed Central

Green, Amy E.; Albanese, Brian J.; Cafri, Guy; Aarons, Gregory A.

2014-01-01

The goal of this study was to examine the relationships of transformational leadership and organizational climate with working alliance, in a children's mental health service system. Using multilevel structural equation modeling, the effect of leadership on working alliance was mediated by organizational climate. These results suggest that supervisors may be able to impact quality of care through improving workplace climate. Organizational factors should be considered in efforts to improve public sector services. Understanding these issues is important for program leaders, mental health service providers, and consumers because they can affect both the way services are delivered and ultimately, clinical outcomes. PMID:24323137

The association between team climate at work and mental health in the Finnish Health 2000 Study.

PubMed

Sinokki, M; Hinkka, K; Ahola, K; Koskinen, S; Klaukka, T; Kivimäki, M; Puukka, P; Lönnqvist, J; Virtanen, M

2009-08-01

Depression, anxiety and alcohol use disorders are common mental health problems in the working population. However, the team climate at work related to these disorders has not been studied using standardised interview methods and it is not known whether poor team climate predicts antidepressant use. This study investigated whether team climate at work was associated with DSM-IV depressive, anxiety and alcohol use disorders and subsequent antidepressant medication in a random sample of Finnish employees. The nationally representative sample comprised 3347 employees aged 30-64 years. Team climate was measured with a self-assessment scale. Diagnoses of depressive, anxiety and alcohol use disorders were based on the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Data on the purchase of antidepressant medication in a 3-year follow-up period were collected from a nationwide pharmaceutical register of the Social Insurance Institution. In the risk factor adjusted models, poor team climate at work was significantly associated with depressive disorders (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.36) but not with alcohol use disorders. The significance of the association between team climate and anxiety disorders disappeared when the model was adjusted for job control and job demands. Poor team climate also predicted antidepressant medication (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.30). A poor team climate at work is associated with depressive disorders and subsequent antidepressant use.

Stand Competition Determines How Different Tree Species Will Cope with a Warming Climate

PubMed Central

Fernández-de-Uña, Laura; Cañellas, Isabel; Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo

2015-01-01

Plant-plant interactions influence how forests cope with climate and contribute to modulate species response to future climate scenarios. We analysed the functional relationships between growth, climate and competition for Pinus sylvestris, Quercus pyrenaica and Quercus faginea to investigate how stand competition modifies forest sensitivity to climate and simulated how annual growth rates of these species with different drought tolerance would change throughout the 21st century. Dendroecological data from stands subjected to thinning were modelled using a novel multiplicative nonlinear approach to overcome biases related to the general assumption of a linear relationship between covariates and to better mimic the biological relationships involved. Growth always decreased exponentially with increasing competition, which explained more growth variability than climate in Q. faginea and P. sylvestris. The effect of precipitation was asymptotic in all cases, while the relationship between growth and temperature reached an optimum after which growth declined with warmer temperatures. Our growth projections indicate that the less drought-tolerant P. sylvestris would be more negatively affected by climate change than the studied sub-Mediterranean oaks. Q. faginea and P. sylvestris mean growth would decrease under all the climate change scenarios assessed. However, P. sylvestris growth would decline regardless of the competition level, whereas this decrease would be offset by reduced competition in Q. faginea. Conversely, Q. pyrenaica growth would remain similar to current rates, except for the warmest scenario. Our models shed light on the nature of the species-specific interaction between climate and competition and yield important implications for management. Assuming that individual growth is directly related to tree performance, trees under low competition would better withstand the warmer conditions predicted under climate change scenarios but in a variable manner

Using Nitrogen Stable Isotope Tracers to Track Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Salt Marshes

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change impacts on coastal salt marshes are predicted to be complex and multi-faceted. In addition to rising sea level and warmer water temperatures, regional precipitation patterns are also expected to change. At least in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic U.S., more severe s...

Unique challenges and opportunities for Northeastern U.S. crop production in a changing climate

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change may both exacerbate the vulnerabilities and open up new opportunities for farming in the Northeastern United States. Among the opportunities are double-cropping and new crop options that may come with warmer temperatures and a longer frost-free period. However, prolonged periods of sp...

Changes in the structural composition and reactivity of Acer rubrum leaf litter tannins exposed to warming and altered precipitation: climatic stress-induced tannins are more reactive.

PubMed

Tharayil, Nishanth; Suseela, Vidya; Triebwasser, Daniella J; Preston, Caroline M; Gerard, Patrick D; Dukes, Jeffrey S

2011-07-01

• Climate change could increase the frequency with which plants experience abiotic stresses, leading to changes in their metabolic pathways. These stresses may induce the production of compounds that are structurally and biologically different from constitutive compounds. • We studied how warming and altered precipitation affected the composition, structure, and biological reactivity of leaf litter tannins in Acer rubrum at the Boston-Area Climate Experiment, in Massachusetts, USA. • Warmer and drier climatic conditions led to higher concentrations of protective compounds, including flavonoids and cutin. The abundance and structure of leaf tannins also responded consistently to climatic treatments. Drought and warming in combination doubled the concentration of total tannins, which reached 30% of leaf-litter DW. This treatment also produced condensed tannins with lower polymerization and a greater proportion of procyanidin units, which in turn reduced sequestration of tannins by litter fiber. Furthermore, because of the structural flexibility of these tannins, litter from this treatment exhibited five times more enzyme (β-glucosidase) complexation capacity on a per-weight basis. Warmer and wetter conditions decreased the amount of foliar condensed tannins. • Our finding that warming and drought result in the production of highly reactive tannins is novel, and highly relevant to climate change research as these tannins, by immobilizing microbial enzymes, could slow litter decomposition and thus carbon and nutrient cycling in a warmer, drier world. © 2011 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2011 New Phytologist Trust.

Different fire-climate relationships on forested and non-forested landscapes in the Sierra Nevada ecoregion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

2015-01-01

In the California Sierra Nevada region, increased fire activity over the last 50 years has only occurred in the higher-elevation forests on US Forest Service (USFS) lands, and is not characteristic of the lower-elevation grasslands, woodlands and shrublands on state responsibility lands (Cal Fire). Increased fire activity on USFS lands was correlated with warmer and drier springs. Although this is consistent with recent global warming, we found an equally strong relationship between fire activity and climate in the first half of the 20th century. At lower elevations, warmer and drier conditions were not strongly tied to fire activity over the last 90 years, although prior-year precipitation was significant. It is hypothesised that the fire–climate relationship in forests is determined by climatic effects on spring and summer fuel moisture, with hotter and drier springs leading to a longer fire season and more extensive burning. In contrast, future fire activity in the foothills may be more dependent on rainfall patterns and their effect on the herbaceous fuel load. We predict spring and summer warming will have a significant impact on future fire regimes, primarily in higher-elevation forests. Lower elevation ecosystems are likely to be affected as much by global changes that directly involve land-use patterns as by climate change.

Climate perceptions of local communities validated through scientific signals in Sikkim Himalaya, India.

PubMed

Sharma, R K; Shrestha, D G

2016-10-01

Sikkim, a tiny Himalayan state situated in the north-eastern region of India, records limited research on the climate change. Understanding the changes in climate based on the perceptions of local communities can provide important insights for the preparedness against the unprecedented consequences of climate change. A total of 228 households in 12 different villages of Sikkim, India, were interviewed using eight climate change indicators. The results from the public opinions showed a significant increase in temperature compared to a decade earlier, winters are getting warmer, water springs are drying up, change in concept of spring-water recharge (locally known as Mul Phutnu), changes in spring season, low crop yields, incidences of mosquitoes during winter, and decrease in rainfall in last 10 years. In addition, study also showed significant positive correlations of increase in temperature with other climate change indicators viz. spring-water recharge concept (R (2) = 0.893), warmer winter (R (2) = 0.839), drying up of water springs (R (2) = 0.76), changes in spring season (R (2) = 0.68), low crop yields (R (2) = 0.68), decrease in rainfall (R (2) = 0.63), and incidences of mosquitoes in winter (R (2) = 0.50). The air temperature for two meteorological stations of Sikkim indicated statistically significant increasing trend in mean minimum temperature and mean minimum winter temperature (DJF). The observed climate change is consistent with the people perceptions. This information can help in planning specific adaptation strategies to cope with the impacts of climate change by framing village-level action plan.

Public Perception of Climate Change and the New Climate Dice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto

2012-01-01

"Climate dice", describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have become more and more "loaded" in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3 sigma) warmer than the climatology of the 1951-1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming, because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change.

Climate change projections for Greek viticulture as simulated by a regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazoglou, Georgia; Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Koundouras, Stefanos

2017-07-01

Viticulture represents an important economic activity for Greek agriculture. Winegrapes are cultivated in many areas covering the whole Greek territory, due to the favorable soil and climatic conditions. Given the dependence of viticulture on climate, the vitivinicultural sector is expected to be affected by possible climatic changes. The present study is set out to investigate the impacts of climatic change in Greek viticulture, using nine bioclimatic indices for the period 1981-2100. For this purpose, reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and data from the regional climatic model Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) are used. It was found that the examined regional climate model estimates satisfactorily these bioclimatic indices. The results of the study show that the increasing trend of temperature and drought will affect all wine-producing regions in Greece. In vineyards in mountainous regions, the impact is positive, while in islands and coastal regions, it is negative. Overall, it should be highlighted that for the first time that Greece is classified into common climatic characteristic categories, according to the international Geoviticulture Multicriteria Climatic Classification System (MCC system). According to the proposed classification, Greek viticulture regions are estimated to have similar climatic characteristics with the warmer wine-producing regions of the world up to the end of twenty-first century. Wine growers and winemakers should take the findings of the study under consideration in order to take measures for Greek wine sector adaptation and the continuation of high-quality wine production.

Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change.

PubMed

Luo, Jing-Jia; Sasaki, Wataru; Masumoto, Yukio

2012-11-13

It has been widely believed that the tropical Pacific trade winds weakened in the last century and would further decrease under a warmer climate in the 21st century. Recent high-quality observations, however, suggest that the tropical Pacific winds have actually strengthened in the past two decades. Precise causes of the recent Pacific climate shift are uncertain. Here we explore how the enhanced tropical Indian Ocean warming in recent decades favors stronger trade winds in the western Pacific via the atmosphere and hence is likely to have contributed to the La Niña-like state (with enhanced east-west Walker circulation) through the Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. Further analysis, based on 163 climate model simulations with centennial historical and projected external radiative forcing, suggests that the Indian Ocean warming relative to the Pacific's could play an important role in modulating the Pacific climate changes in the 20th and 21st centuries.

Warmer weather as a risk factor for hospitalisations due to urinary tract infections.

PubMed

Simmering, J E; Cavanaugh, J E; Polgreen, L A; Polgreen, P M

2018-02-01

The incidence of urinary tract infections (UTIs) is seasonal, and this seasonality may be explained by changes in weather, specifically, temperature. Using data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, we identified the geographic location for 581 813 hospital admissions with the primary diagnosis of a UTI and 56 630 773 non-UTI hospitalisations in the United States. Next, we used data from the National Climatic Data Center to estimate the monthly average temperature for each location. Using a case-control design, we modelled the odds of a hospital admission having a primary diagnosis of UTI as a function of demographics, payer, location, patient severity, admission month, year and the average temperature for the admission month. We found, after controlling for patient factors and month of admission, the odds of a UTI diagnosis increased with higher temperatures in a dose-dependent manner. For example, relative to months with average temperatures of 5-7.5 °C, an admission in a month with an average temperature of 27.5-30 °C has 20% higher odds of a primary diagnosis of UTI. However, in months with extremely high average temperatures (above 30 °C), the odds of a UTI admissions decrease, perhaps due to changes in behaviour. Thus, at a population level, UTI-related hospitalisations are associated with warmer weather.

In-line Microwave Warmer for Blood and Intravenous Fluids. Phase 2.

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-02-15

occuring in the battlefield often requires restoring normothermia and infusion of fluids, such as saline or blood, into the patient. These two...elevation is required to restore normal body temperature in response to hypothermic cardioplegic arrest induced prior to the operation. 6 1.2 System... Microfiltration Devices," Acta Annaesth Scand, 23:40- 45, 1979. [20] K Linko, K Hynynen, "Erythrocyte Damage Caused by the Haemotherm Microwave Blood Warmer

Forest responses to climate change in the northwestern United States: ecophysiological foundations for adaptive management

Treesearch

Daniel J. Chmura; Paul D. Anderson; Glenn T. Howe; Constance A. Harrington; Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; David C. Shaw; Brad J. St Clair

2011-01-01

Climate change resulting from increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide ([C02]) is expected to result in warmer temperatures and changed precipitation regimes during this century. In the northwestern U.S., these changes will likely decrease snowpack, cause earlier snowmelt, increase summer evapotranspiration, and increase the...

Diversity climate enhances work outcomes through trust and openness in workgroup communication.

PubMed

Hofhuis, Joep; van der Rijt, Pernill G A; Vlug, Martijn

2016-01-01

Diversity climate, defined as an organizational climate characterized by openness towards and appreciation of individual differences, has been shown to enhance outcomes in culturally diverse teams. To date, it remains unclear which processes are responsible for these findings. This paper presents two quantitative studies (n = 91; 246) that identify trust and openness in workgroup communication as possible mediators. We replicate earlier findings that perceived diversity climate positively relates to job satisfaction, sense of inclusion, work group identification and knowledge sharing in teams. In study 1, trust is shown to mediate the effects of perceived diversity climate on team members' sense of inclusion. In study 2, trust mediates the relationship between perceived diversity climate and workgroup identification and openness mediates its relationship with knowledge sharing.

Climate and population density drive changes in cod body size throughout a century on the Norwegian coast

PubMed Central

Rogers, Lauren A.; Stige, Leif C.; Olsen, Esben M.; Knutsen, Halvor; Chan, Kung-Sik; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2011-01-01

Understanding how populations respond to changes in climate requires long-term, high-quality datasets, which are rare for marine systems. We estimated the effects of climate warming on cod lengths and length variability using a unique 91-y time series of more than 100,000 individual juvenile cod lengths from surveys that began in 1919 along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. Using linear mixed-effects models, we accounted for spatial population structure and the nested structure of the survey data to reveal opposite effects of spring and summer warming on juvenile cod lengths. Warm summer temperatures in the coastal Skagerrak have limited juvenile growth. In contrast, warmer springs have resulted in larger juvenile cod, with less variation in lengths within a cohort, possibly because of a temperature-driven contraction in the spring spawning period. A density-dependent reduction in length was evident only at the highest population densities in the time series, which have rarely been observed in the last decade. If temperatures rise because of global warming, nonlinearities in the opposing temperature effects suggest that negative effects of warmer summers will increasingly outweigh positive effects of warmer springs, and the coastal Skagerrak will become ill-suited for Atlantic cod. PMID:21245301

National Assessment of Human Health Effects of Climate Change in Portugal: Approach and Key Findings

PubMed Central

Casimiro, Elsa; Calheiros, Jose; Santos, Filipe Duarte; Kovats, Sari

2006-01-01

In this study we investigated the potential impact of climate change in Portugal on heat-related mortality, air pollution–related health effects, and selected vectorborne diseases. The assessment used climate scenarios from two regional climate models for a range of future time periods. The annual heat-related death rates in Lisbon may increase from between 5.4 and 6 per 100,000 in 1980–1998 to between 8.5 and 12.1 by the 2020s and to a maximum of 29.5 by the 2050s, if no adaptations occur. The projected warmer and more variable weather may result in better dispersion of nitrogen dioxide levels in winter, whereas the higher temperatures may reduce air quality during the warmer months by increasing tropospheric ozone levels. We estimated the future risk of zoonoses using ecologic scenarios to describe future changes in vectors and parasites. Malaria and schistosomiasis, which are currently not endemic in Portugal, are more sensitive to the introduction of infected vectors than to temperature changes. Higher temperatures may increase the transmission risk of zoonoses that are currently endemic to Portugal, such as leishmaniasis, Lyme disease, and Mediterranean spotted fever. PMID:17185290

Organizational climate partially mediates the effect of culture on work attitudes and staff turnover in mental health services.

PubMed

Aarons, Gregory A; Sawitzky, Angelina C

2006-05-01

Staff turnover in mental health service organizations is an ongoing problem with implications for staff morale, productivity, organizational effectiveness, and implementation of innovation. Recent studies in public sector services have examined the impact of organizational culture and climate on work attitudes (i.e., job satisfaction and organizational commitment) and, ultimately, staff turnover. However, mediational models of the impact of culture and climate on work attitudes have not been examined. The present study examined full and partial mediation models of the effects of culture and climate on work attitudes and the subsequent impact of work attitudes on staff turnover. Multilevel structural equation models supported a partial mediation model in which organizational culture had both direct influence on work attitudes and indirect influence through organizational climate. Work attitudes significantly predicted one-year staff turnover rates. These findings support the contention that both culture and climate impact work attitudes and subsequent staff turnover.

Climate vulnerability of native cold-water salmonids in the Northern Rockies Region [Chapter 5

Treesearch

Michael K. Young; Daniel J. Isaak; Scott Spaulding; Cameron A. Thomas; Scott A. Barndt; Matthew C. Groce; Dona Horan; David E. Nagel

2018-01-01

During the 21st century, climate change is expected to alter aquatic habitats throughout the Northern Rocky Mountains, intermountain basins, and western Great Plains. Particularly in montane watersheds, direct changes are likely to include warmer water temperatures, earlier snowmelt-driven runoff, earlier declines to summer baseflow, downhill movement of perennial...

Robust Spring Drying in the Southwestern U.S. and Seasonal Migration of Wet/Dry Patterns in a Warmer Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Yang; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Lu, Jian

2014-03-16

This study compares climate simulations over the United States produced by a regional climate model with the driving global climate simulations as well as a large multi-model ensemble of global climate simulations to investigate robust changes in water availability (precipitation (P) – evapotranspiration (E)). A robust spring dry signal across multiple models is identified in the Southwest that results from a decrease in P and an increase in E in the future. In the boreal winter and summer, the prominent changes in P – E are associated with a north – south dipole pattern, while in spring, the prominent changesmore » in P – E appear as an east – west dipole pattern. The progression of the north – south and east – west dipole patterns through the seasons manifests clearly as a seasonal “clockwise” migration of wet/dry patterns, which is shown to be a robust feature of water availability changes in the US consistent across regional and global climate simulations.« less

Managerial Behaviors and Work Group Climate as Predictors of Employee Outcomes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Church, Allan H.

1995-01-01

Presents an analysis of the predictive relationships of managerial behavior and work group climate on employee outcomes; 1,428 survey responses were collected during an organizational change in the marketing and sales division of an international pharmaceuticals company. Behaviors of managers and work group members were found to be significantly…

Organizational Climate Partially Mediates the Effect of Culture on Work Attitudes and Staff Turnover in Mental Health Services

PubMed Central

Aarons, Gregory A.; Sawitzky, Angelina C.

2006-01-01

Staff turnover in mental health service organizations is an ongoing problem with implications for staff morale, productivity, organizational effectiveness, and implementation of innovation. Recent studies in public sector services have examined the impact of organizational culture and climate on work attitudes (i.e., job satisfaction and organizational commitment) and, ultimately, staff turnover. However, mediational models of the impact of culture and climate on work attitudes have not been examined. The present study examined full and partial mediation models of the effects of culture and climate on work attitudes and the subsequent impact of work attitudes on staff turnover. Multilevel structural equation models supported a partial mediation model in which organizational culture had both direct influence on work attitudes and indirect influence through organizational climate. Work attitudes significantly predicted one-year staff turnover rates. These findings support the contention that both culture and climate impact work attitudes and subsequent staff turnover. PMID:16544205

Changes in the extremes of the climate simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO{sub 2} doubling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zwiers, F.W.; Kharin, V.V.

Changes due to CO{sub 2} doubling in the extremes of the surface climate as simulated by the second-generation circulation model of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis are studied in two 20-yr equilibrium simulations. Extreme values of screen temperature, precipitation, and near-surface wind in the control climate are compared to those estimated from 17 yr of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and from some Canadian station data. The extremes of screen temperature are reasonably well reproduced in the control climate. Their changes under CO{sub 2} doubling can be connected with other physical changes such as surface albedo changes duemore » to the reduction of snow and sea ice cover as well as a decrease of soil moisture in the warmer world. The signal in the extremes of daily precipitation and near-surface wind speed due to CO{sub 2} doubling is less obvious. The precipitation extremes increase almost everywhere over the globe. The strongest change, over northwest India, is related to the intensification of the summer monsoon in this region in the warmer world. The modest reduction of wind extremes in the Tropics and middle latitudes is consistent with the reduction of the meridional temperature gradient in the 2{times}CO{sub 2} climate. The larger wind extremes occur in the areas where sea ice has retreated.« less

Growth tradeoffs associated with thermotolerant symbionts in the coral Pocillopora damicornis are lost in warmer oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunning, R.; Gillette, P.; Capo, T.; Galvez, K.; Baker, A. C.

2015-03-01

The growth and survival of reef corals are influenced by their symbiotic algal partners ( Symbiodinium spp.), which may be flexible in space and time. Tradeoffs among partnerships exist such that corals with thermotolerant symbionts (e.g., clade D) resist bleaching but grow more slowly, making the long-term ecosystem-level impacts of different host-symbiont associations uncertain. However, much of this uncertainty is due to limited data regarding these tradeoffs and particularly how they are mediated by the environment. To address this knowledge gap, we measured growth and survival of Pocillopora damicornis with thermally sensitive (clade C) or tolerant (clade D) symbionts at three temperatures over 18-55 weeks. Warming reduced coral growth overall, but altered the tradeoffs associated with symbiont type. While clade D corals grew 35-40 % slower than clade C corals at cooler temperatures (26 °C), warming of 1.5-3 °C reduced and eliminated this growth disadvantage. These results suggest that although warmer oceans will negatively impact corals, clade D may enhance survival at no cost to growth relative to clade C. Understanding these genotype-environment interactions can help improve modeling efforts and conservation strategies for reefs under global climate change.

Aiding cities in their work on climate change adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, P.

2013-12-01

Urban areas around the world are at the frontlines of climate change because of their enormous aggregate populations and because of their vulnerability to multiple climate change stressors. Half of our planet's 7.1 billion inhabitants currently reside in cities with six billion people projected to call cities home by 2050. In the U.S. and much of the rest of the world, cities are warming at twice the rate of the planet. Superimposed on urban climate changes driven by global warming are the regional effects of urban heat domes driven by large differences in land use, building materials, and vegetation between cities and their rural surroundings. In megacities - those with populations exceeding 10 million people - such as Tokyo - urban heat domes can contribute to daytime temperatures that soar to more than 11°C higher than their rural surroundings. In addition, the localized warming can alter patterns of precipitation in metropolitan regions and perhaps even influence the frequency and severity of severe weather. Municipal officials need to accelerate their efforts to prepare and implement climate change adaptation strategies but what are the institutions that can help enable this work? Informal science education centers can play vital roles because they are overwhelmingly in urban settings and because they can act as ';competent outsiders.' They are neither responsible for conducting climate change research nor accountable for implementing public policies to address climate change. They instead can play an essential role of ensuring that solid science informs the formulation of good practices and policies. It is incumbent, therefore, for informal science education centers to accelerate and enhance their abilities to help translate scientific insights into on-the-ground actions. This session will explore the potential roles of informal science education centers to advance climate change adaptation through a review of the urban climate change education initiatives

The Relationship between Work Engagement Behavior and Perceived Organizational Support and Organizational Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Köse, Akif

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between work engagement and perceived organizational support and organizational climate. The present study, in which quantitative methods have been used, is carried out in the relational screening model. Perceived organizational support scale, organizational climate scale, and work…

Empirically Derived and Simulated Sensitivity of Vegetation to Climate Across Global Gradients of Temperature and Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quetin, G. R.; Swann, A. L. S.

2017-12-01

Successfully predicting the state of vegetation in a novel environment is dependent on our process level understanding of the ecosystem and its interactions with the environment. We derive a global empirical map of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate using the response of satellite-observed greenness and leaf area to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation. Our analysis provides observations of ecosystem functioning; the vegetation interactions with the physical environment, across a wide range of climates and provide a functional constraint for hypotheses engendered in process-based models. We infer mechanisms constraining ecosystem functioning by contrasting how the observed and simulated sensitivity of vegetation to climate varies across climate space. Our analysis yields empirical evidence for multiple physical and biological mediators of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate as a systematic change across climate space. Our comparison of remote sensing-based vegetation sensitivity with modeled estimates provides evidence for which physiological mechanisms - photosynthetic efficiency, respiration, water supply, atmospheric water demand, and sunlight availability - dominate the ecosystem functioning in places with different climates. Earth system models are generally successful in reproducing the broad sign and shape of ecosystem functioning across climate space. However, this general agreement breaks down in hot wet climates where models simulate less leaf area during a warmer year, while observations show a mixed response but overall more leaf area during warmer years. In addition, simulated ecosystem interaction with temperature is generally larger and changes more rapidly across a gradient of temperature than is observed. We hypothesize that the amplified interaction and change are both due to a lack of adaptation and acclimation in simulations. This discrepancy with observations suggests that simulated responses of vegetation to

A technician works on the Mars Climate Orbiter in SAEF-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1998-01-01

In the Spacecraft Assembly and Encapsulation Facility-2 (SAEF-2), a technician works on the Mars Climate Orbiter which is scheduled to launch on Dec. 10, 1998, aboard a Boeing Delta II rocket. The Mars Climate Orbiter is heading for Mars where it will primarily support its companion Mars Polar Lander spacecraft, planned for launch on Jan. 3, 1999. After that, the Mars Climate Orbiter's instruments will monitor the Martian atmosphere and image the planet's surface on a daily basis for one Martian year (two Earth years). It will observe the appearance and movement of atmospheric dust and water vapor, as well as characterize seasonal changes on the surface. The detailed images of the surface features will provide important clues to the planet's early climate history and give scientists more information about possible liquid water reserves beneath the surface.

Quality of Work Life and Organizational Climate of Schools Located along the Thai-Cambodian Borders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kitratporn, Poonsook; Puncreobutr, Vichian

2016-01-01

The purpose of the study is to measure the Quality of Work Life and Organizational Climate of Schools located along the Thai-Cambodian borders. The study intended to measure the relationship between the two underlying variables quality of work life and organizational climate. Simple random sample of 384 respondents were administrators and teachers…

Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

PubMed Central

Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

2009-01-01

Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - impacts to the Pacific Coast

Treesearch

Amanda Schramm; Rachel Loehman

2012-01-01

The Pacific Coast is an area of incredible biodiversity and diverse landscapes that are subject to a range of effects as regional climates shift. Changes that have already been observed within this bioregion include warmer average temperatures, earlier runoff season, rising sea levels, coastal erosion, species migration, and a longer growing season. In the next century...

Work environment and safety climate in the Swedish merchant fleet.

PubMed

Forsell, Karl; Eriksson, Helena; Järvholm, Bengt; Lundh, Monica; Andersson, Eva; Nilsson, Ralph

2017-02-01

To get knowledge of the work environment for seafarers sailing under the Swedish flag, in terms of safety climate, ergonomical, chemical and psychosocial exposures, and the seafarers self-rated health and work ability. A Web-based questionnaire was sent to all seafarers with a personal e-mail address in the Swedish Maritime Registry (N = 5608). Comparisons were made mainly within the study population, using Student's t test, prevalence odds ratios and logistic regressions with 95% confidence intervals. The response rate was 35% (N = 1972; 10% women, 90% men), with 61% of the respondents working on deck, 31% in the engine room and 7% in the catering/service department (1% not classifiable). Strain on neck, arm or back and heavy lifting were associated with female gender (p = 0.0001) and younger age (below or above 30 years of age, p < 0.0001). Exposures to exhausts, oils and dust were commonly reported. Major work problems were noise, risk of an accident and vibrations from the hull of the ship. The safety climate was high in comparison with that in land-based occupations. One-fourth had experienced personal harassment or bullying during last year of service. Noise, risk of accidents, hand/arm and whole-body vibrations and psychosocial factors such as harassment were commonly reported work environment problems among seafarers within the Swedish merchant fleet.

[Spatiotemporal dynamics of land cover in northern Tibetan Plateau with responses to climate change].

PubMed

Song, Chun-qiao; You, Song-cai; Ke, Ling-hong; Liu, Gao-huan; Zhong, Xin-ke

2011-08-01

By using the 2001-2008 MOMS land cover products (MCDl2Ql) and based on the modified classification scheme embodied the characteristics of land cover in northern Tibetan Plateau, the annual land cover type maps of the Plateau were drawn, with the dynamic changes of each land cover type analyzed by classification statistics, dynamic transfer matrix, and landscape pattern indices. In 2001-2008, due to the acceleration of global climate warming, the areas of glacier and snow-covered land in the Plateau decreased rapidly, and the melted snow water gathered into low-lying valley or basin, making the lake level raised and the lake area enlarged. Some permanent wetlands were formed because of partially submersed grassland. The vegetation cover did not show any evident meliorated or degraded trend. From 2001 to 2004, as the climate became warmer and wetter, the spatial distribution of desert began to shrink, and the proportions of sparse grassland and grassland increased. From 2006 to 2007, due to the warmer and drier climate, the desert bare land increased, and the sparse grassland decreased. From 2001 to 2008, both the landscape fragmentation degree and the land cover heterogeneity decreased, and the differences in the proportions of all land cover types somewhat enlarged.

Soil Dissolved Organic Carbon Fluxes are Controlled by both Precipitation and Longer-Term Climate Effects on Boreal Forest Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hotchkiss, E. R.; Ziegler, S. E.; Edwards, K. A.; Bowering, K.

2017-12-01

Water acts as a control on the cycling of organic carbon (OC). Forest productivity responses to climate change are linked to water availability while water residence time is a major control on OC loss in aquatic ecosystems. However, controls on the export of terrestrial OC to the aquatic environment remains poorly understood. Transport of dissolved OC (DOC) through soils both vertically to deeper soil horizons and into aquatic systems is a key flux of terrestrial OC, but the climate drivers controlling OC mobilized from soils is poorly understood. We installed zero-tension lysimeters across similar balsam fir forest sites within three regions that span a MAT gradient of 5.2˚C and MAP of 1050-1500 mm. Using soil water collected over all seasons for four years we tested whether a warmer and wetter climate promotes greater DOC fluxes in ecosystems experiencing relatively high precipitation. Variability within and between years was compared to that observed across climates to test the sensitivity of this flux to shorter relative to longer-term climate effects on this flux. The warmest and wettest southern site exhibited the greatest annual DOC flux (25 to 28 g C m-2 y-1) in contrast to the most northern site (8 to 10 g C m -2 y-1). This flux represented 10% of litterfall C inputs across sites and surpassed the DOC export from associated forested headwater streams (1 to 16 g C m-2 y-1) suggesting terrestrial to aquatic interface processing. Historical climate and increased soil C inputs explain the greater DOC flux in the southern region. Even in years with comparable annual precipitation among regions the DOC flux differed by climate region. Furthermore, neither quantity nor form of precipitation could explain inter-annual differences in DOC flux within each region. Region specific relationships between precipitation and soil water flux instead suggest historical climate effects may impact soil water transport efficiency thereby controlling the regional variation in

Organizational Climate and Work Addiction in Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, 2014: a Case Study.

PubMed

Rafiee, Noora; Bahrami, Mohammad Amin; Zare, Vahid; Mohammadi, Mahan

2015-12-01

The occupational nature of employees in headquarters units of the University requires them to deal with support issues. Thus, there is some pressure on these employees to complete their assignments on time so that employees in the line units can accurately and expeditiously perform their duties. As a result, work addiction behaviors are sometimes observed among the headquarters personnel. Considering the importance of work addiction and recognizing the factors that intensify it, this study investigated the relationship between organizational climate and the work addiction of headquarters personnel at the Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences. This descriptive-analytic study was conducted using stratified random sampling of 151 University employees in 2014. The data collection tool was an organizational climate questionnaire, which was supplemented by the Work Addiction Risk Test (WART). The data were analyzed using the Pearson test, Spearman test, independent t-test, Mann-Whitney test, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), and the Kruskal-Wallis test using IBM-SPSS version 20. The findings of this study showed that the organizational climate was at a moderate level, and employees were in the danger level in terms of work addiction. In addition, among the dimensions of organizational climate, the risk dimension had a significant relationship with work addiction (p<0.05), and the dimensions of structure and responsibility were significantly different from occupational group and monthly salary (p<0.05). Single employees showed a significant difference from married employees in the two dimensions of criteria and conflict (p<0.05). Since the organizational climate score was low and the work addiction score was at the high-risk level, this issue demands more attention of senior managers and human resource officers of organizations to improve the organizational climate and increase employees' awareness of work addiction.

Organizational Climate and Work Addiction in Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, 2014: a Case Study

PubMed Central

Rafiee, Noora; Bahrami, Mohammad Amin; Zare, Vahid; Mohammadi, Mahan

2015-01-01

Introduction The occupational nature of employees in headquarters units of the University requires them to deal with support issues. Thus, there is some pressure on these employees to complete their assignments on time so that employees in the line units can accurately and expeditiously perform their duties. As a result, work addiction behaviors are sometimes observed among the headquarters personnel. Considering the importance of work addiction and recognizing the factors that intensify it, this study investigated the relationship between organizational climate and the work addiction of headquarters personnel at the Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences. Methods This descriptive-analytic study was conducted using stratified random sampling of 151 University employees in 2014. The data collection tool was an organizational climate questionnaire, which was supplemented by the Work Addiction Risk Test (WART). The data were analyzed using the Pearson test, Spearman test, independent t-test, Mann-Whitney test, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), and the Kruskal-Wallis test using IBM-SPSS version 20. Results The findings of this study showed that the organizational climate was at a moderate level, and employees were in the danger level in terms of work addiction. In addition, among the dimensions of organizational climate, the risk dimension had a significant relationship with work addiction (p<0.05), and the dimensions of structure and responsibility were significantly different from occupational group and monthly salary (p<0.05). Single employees showed a significant difference from married employees in the two dimensions of criteria and conflict (p<0.05). Conclusion Since the organizational climate score was low and the work addiction score was at the high-risk level, this issue demands more attention of senior managers and human resource officers of organizations to improve the organizational climate and increase employees’ awareness of work addiction

Braking effect of climate and topography on global change-induced upslope forest expansion.

PubMed

Alatalo, Juha M; Ferrarini, Alessandro

2017-03-01

Forests are expected to expand into alpine areas due to global climate change. It has recently been shown that temperature alone cannot realistically explain this process and that upslope tree advance in a warmer scenario may depend on the availability of sites with adequate geomorphic/topographic characteristics. Here, we show that, besides topography (slope and aspect), climate itself can produce a braking effect on the upslope advance of subalpine forests and that tree limit is influenced by non-linear and non-monotonic contributions of the climate variables which act upon treeline upslope advance with varying relative strengths. Our results suggest that global climate change impact on the upslope advance of subalpine forests should be interpreted in a more complex way where climate can both speed up and slow down the process depending on complex patterns of contribution from each climate and non-climate variable.

Legacy effects of simulated short-term climate change on ammonia oxidisers, denitrifiers, and nitrous oxide emissions in an acid soil.

PubMed

Xu, Xiaoya; Liu, Xiaorui; Li, Yong; Ran, Yu; Liu, Yapeng; Zhang, Qichun; Li, Zheng; He, Yan; Xu, Jianming; Di, Hongjie

2017-04-01

Although the effect of simulated climate change on nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and on associated microbial communities has been reported, it is not well understood if these effects are short-lived or long-lasting. Here, we conducted a field study to determine the interactive effects of simulated warmer and drier conditions on nitrifier and denitrifier communities and N 2 O emissions in an acidic soil and the longevity of the effects. A warmer (+2.3 °C) and drier climate (-7.4% soil moisture content) was created with greenhouses. The variation of microbial population abundance and community structure of ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA), bacteria (AOB), and denitrifiers (nirK/S, nosZ) were determined using real-time PCR and high-throughput sequencing. The results showed that the simulated warmer and drier conditions under the greenhouse following urea application significantly increased N 2 O emissions. There was also a moderate legacy effect on the N 2 O emissions when the greenhouses were removed in the urea treatment, although this effect only lasted a short period of time (about 60 days). The simulated climate change conditions changed the composition of AOA with the species affiliated to marine group 1.1a-associated lineage increasing significantly. The abundance of all the functional denitrifier genes decreased significantly under the simulated climate change conditions and the legacy effect, after the removal of greenhouses, significantly increased the abundance of AOB, AOA (mainly the species affiliated to marine group 1.1a-associated lineage), and nirK and nosZ genes in the urea-treated soil. In general, the effect of the simulated climate change was short-lived, with the denitrifier communities being able to return to ambient levels after a period of adaptation to ambient conditions. Therefore, the legacy effect of simulated short-time climate change conditions on the ammonia oxidizer and denitrifier communities and N 2 O emissions were temporary and

Climate warming shifts carbon allocation from stemwood to roots in calcium-depleted spruce forests

Treesearch

Andrei G. ​Lapenis; Gregory B. Lawrence; Alexander Heim; Chengyang Zheng; Walter Shortle

2013-01-01

Increased greening of northern forests, measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), has been presented as evidence that a warmer climate has increased both net primary productivity (NPP) and the carbon sink in boreal forests. However, higher production and greener canopies may accompany changes in carbon allocation that favor foliage or fine roots...

Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate feedback mechanisms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.

1982-01-01

As a consequence of fossil fuel burning, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased from 314 ppm in 1958, when detailed measurements of this quantity began, to a present value of 335 ppm; and it is estimated that during the next century, the CO2 concentration will double relative to its assumed preindustrial value of 290 ppm. Since CO2 is an infrared-active gas, increases in its atmospheric concentration would lead to a larger infrared opacity for the atmospheric which, by normal logic, would result in a warmer Earth. A number of modeling endeavors suggest a 2 to 4 C increase in global mean surface temperature with doubling of the CO2 concentration. But such estimates of CO2-induced warming are highly uncertain because of a lack of knowledge of climate feedback mechanisms. Interactive influences upon the solar and infrared opacities of the Earth-atmosphere system can either amplify or damp a climate-forcing mechanism such as increasing CO2. Climate feedback mechanisms discussed include climate sensitivity, cloudiness-radiation feedback, climate change predictions, and interactive atmospheric chemistry.

Job Design for Mindful Work: The Boosting Effect of Psychosocial Safety Climate.

PubMed

Lawrie, Emily J; Tuckey, Michelle R; Dollard, Maureen F

2017-12-28

Despite a surge in workplace mindfulness research, virtually nothing is known about how organizations can cultivate everyday mindfulness at work. Using the extended job demands-resources model, we explored daily psychological demands and job control as potential antecedents of daily mindfulness, and the moderating effect of psychosocial safety climate (PSC, which relates to the value organizations place on psychological health at work). We also examined the relationship between mindfulness and learning to augment understanding of the benefits of everyday mindfulness at work. A sample of 57 employees, primarily working in education, health care, and finance, completed a diary for five days within a 2-week period, covering mindfulness, psychological demands, job control, and learning. PSC was measured in a baseline survey, with individual ratings combined with those of up to four colleagues to tap objective (shared) climate. Hierarchical linear modeling showed that daily psychological demands were negatively related to daily mindfulness, and daily job control was positively related to daily mindfulness especially as PSC increased. Additionally, daily mindfulness was positively associated with daily workplace learning. This study is one of the first to identify work-related antecedents to everyday mindfulness. The findings suggest that (a) to support everyday mindfulness at work, jobs must be designed with manageable demands and a variety of tasks that allow for creativity and skill discretion, and (b) the benefits of mindfulness interventions for employee psychological health and well-being may not be sustainable unless employees have influence over when and how they do their work, in the "right" climate. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Hurricanes and Climate: the U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walsh, Kevin; Camargo, Suzana J.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Daloz, Anne Sophie; Elsner, James; Emanuel, Kerry; Horn, Michael; Lim, Young-Kwon; Roberts, Malcolm; Patricola, Christina;

Projected Impacts of Climate, Urbanization, Water Management, and Wetland Restoration on Waterbird Habitat in California's Central Valley.

PubMed

Matchett, Elliott L; Fleskes, Joseph P

2017-01-01

The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006-2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the "existing" landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional

Assessing the Impact of Laurentide Ice-sheet Topography on Glacial Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ullman, D. J.; LeGrande, A. N.; Carlson, A. E.; Anslow, F. S.; Licciardi, J. M.

2014-01-01

Simulations of past climates require altered boundary conditions to account for known shifts in the Earth system. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the existence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets caused profound changes in surface topography and albedo. While ice-sheet extent is fairly well known, numerous conflicting reconstructions of ice-sheet topography suggest that precision in this boundary condition is lacking. Here we use a high-resolution and oxygen-isotopeenabled fully coupled global circulation model (GCM) (GISS ModelE2-R), along with two different reconstructions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) that provide maximum and minimum estimates of LIS elevation, to assess the range of climate variability in response to uncertainty in this boundary condition.We present this comparison at two equilibrium time slices: the LGM, when differences in ice-sheet topography are maximized, and 14 ka, when differences in maximum ice-sheet height are smaller but still exist. Overall, we find significant differences in the climate response to LIS topography, with the larger LIS resulting in enhanced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and warmer surface air temperatures, particularly over northeastern Asia and the North Pacific. These up- and downstream effects are associated with differences in the development of planetary waves in the upper atmosphere, with the larger LIS resulting in a weaker trough over northeastern Asia that leads to the warmer temperatures and decreased albedo from snow and sea-ice cover. Differences between the 14 ka simulations are similar in spatial extent but smaller in magnitude, suggesting that climate is responding primarily to the larger difference in maximum LIS elevation in the LGM simulations. These results suggest that such uncertainty in ice-sheet boundary conditions alone may significantly impact the results of paleoclimate simulations and their ability to successfully simulate past climates

Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future.

PubMed

Willis, K J; Bennett, K D; Burrough, S L; Macias-Fauria, M; Tovar, C

2013-01-01

Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400-500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records.

Forest structure, stand composition, and climate-growth response in montane forests of Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve, China.

PubMed

Schwartz, Mark W; Dolanc, Christopher R; Gao, Hui; Strauss, Sharon Y; Schwartz, Ari C; Williams, John N; Tang, Ya

2013-01-01

Montane forests of western China provide an opportunity to establish baseline studies for climate change. The region is being impacted by climate change, air pollution, and significant human impacts from tourism. We analyzed forest stand structure and climate-growth relationships from Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in northwestern Sichuan province, along the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau. We conducted a survey to characterize forest stand diversity and structure in plots occurring between 2050 and 3350 m in elevation. We also evaluated seedling and sapling recruitment and tree-ring data from four conifer species to assess: 1) whether the forest appears in transition toward increased hardwood composition; 2) if conifers appear stressed by recent climate change relative to hardwoods; and 3) how growth of four dominant species responds to recent climate. Our study is complicated by clear evidence of 20(th) century timber extraction. Focusing on regions lacking evidence of logging, we found a diverse suite of conifers (Pinus, Abies, Juniperus, Picea, and Larix) strongly dominate the forest overstory. We found population size structures for most conifer tree species to be consistent with self-replacement and not providing evidence of shifting composition toward hardwoods. Climate-growth analyses indicate increased growth with cool temperatures in summer and fall. Warmer temperatures during the growing season could negatively impact conifer growth, indicating possible seasonal climate water deficit as a constraint on growth. In contrast, however, we found little relationship to seasonal precipitation. Projected warming does not yet have a discernible signal on trends in tree growth rates, but slower growth with warmer growing season climates suggests reduced potential future forest growth.

Forest Structure, Stand Composition, and Climate-Growth Response in Montane Forests of Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve, China

PubMed Central

Schwartz, Mark W.; Dolanc, Christopher R.; Gao, Hui; Strauss, Sharon Y.; Schwartz, Ari C.; Williams, John N.; Tang, Ya

2013-01-01

Montane forests of western China provide an opportunity to establish baseline studies for climate change. The region is being impacted by climate change, air pollution, and significant human impacts from tourism. We analyzed forest stand structure and climate-growth relationships from Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in northwestern Sichuan province, along the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau. We conducted a survey to characterize forest stand diversity and structure in plots occurring between 2050 and 3350 m in elevation. We also evaluated seedling and sapling recruitment and tree-ring data from four conifer species to assess: 1) whether the forest appears in transition toward increased hardwood composition; 2) if conifers appear stressed by recent climate change relative to hardwoods; and 3) how growth of four dominant species responds to recent climate. Our study is complicated by clear evidence of 20th century timber extraction. Focusing on regions lacking evidence of logging, we found a diverse suite of conifers (Pinus, Abies, Juniperus, Picea, and Larix) strongly dominate the forest overstory. We found population size structures for most conifer tree species to be consistent with self-replacement and not providing evidence of shifting composition toward hardwoods. Climate-growth analyses indicate increased growth with cool temperatures in summer and fall. Warmer temperatures during the growing season could negatively impact conifer growth, indicating possible seasonal climate water deficit as a constraint on growth. In contrast, however, we found little relationship to seasonal precipitation. Projected warming does not yet have a discernible signal on trends in tree growth rates, but slower growth with warmer growing season climates suggests reduced potential future forest growth. PMID:23951188

Climate change is affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species.

PubMed

Inouye, D W; Barr, B; Armitage, K B; Inouye, B D

2000-02-15

Calendar date of the beginning of the growing season at high altitude in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is variable but has not changed significantly over the past 25 years. This result differs from growing evidence from low altitudes that climate change is resulting in a longer growing season, earlier migrations, and earlier reproduction in a variety of taxa. At our study site, the beginning of the growing season is controlled by melting of the previous winter's snowpack. Despite a trend for warmer spring temperatures the average date of snowmelt has not changed, perhaps because of the trend for increased winter precipitation. This disjunction between phenology at low and high altitudes may create problems for species, such as many birds, that migrate over altitudinal gradients. We present data indicating that this already may be true for American robins, which are arriving 14 days earlier than they did in 1981; the interval between arrival date and the first date of bare ground has grown by 18 days. We also report evidence for an effect of climate change on hibernation behavior; yellow-bellied marmots are emerging 38 days earlier than 23 years ago, apparently in response to warmer spring air temperatures. Migrants and hibernators may experience problems as a consequence of these changes in phenology, which may be exacerbated if climate models are correct in their predictions of increased winter snowfall in our study area. The trends we report for earlier formation of permanent snowpack and for a longer period of snow cover also have implications for hibernating species.

Climate change is affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species

PubMed Central

Inouye, David W.; Barr, Billy; Armitage, Kenneth B.; Inouye, Brian D.

2000-01-01

Calendar date of the beginning of the growing season at high altitude in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is variable but has not changed significantly over the past 25 years. This result differs from growing evidence from low altitudes that climate change is resulting in a longer growing season, earlier migrations, and earlier reproduction in a variety of taxa. At our study site, the beginning of the growing season is controlled by melting of the previous winter's snowpack. Despite a trend for warmer spring temperatures the average date of snowmelt has not changed, perhaps because of the trend for increased winter precipitation. This disjunction between phenology at low and high altitudes may create problems for species, such as many birds, that migrate over altitudinal gradients. We present data indicating that this already may be true for American robins, which are arriving 14 days earlier than they did in 1981; the interval between arrival date and the first date of bare ground has grown by 18 days. We also report evidence for an effect of climate change on hibernation behavior; yellow-bellied marmots are emerging 38 days earlier than 23 years ago, apparently in response to warmer spring air temperatures. Migrants and hibernators may experience problems as a consequence of these changes in phenology, which may be exacerbated if climate models are correct in their predictions of increased winter snowfall in our study area. The trends we report for earlier formation of permanent snowpack and for a longer period of snow cover also have implications for hibernating species. PMID:10677510

Differences in Temperature Changes in Premature Infants During Invasive Procedures in Incubators and Radiant Warmers.

PubMed

Handhayanti, Ludwy; Rustina, Yeni; Budiati, Tri

Premature infants tend to lose heat quickly. This loss can be aggravated when they have received an invasive procedure involving a venous puncture. This research uses crossover design by conducting 2 intervention tests to compare 2 different treatments on the same sample. This research involved 2 groups with 18 premature infants in each. The process of data analysis used a statistical independent t test. Interventions conducted in an open incubator showed a p value of .001 which statistically related to heat loss in premature infants. In contrast, the radiant warmer p value of .001 statistically referred to a different range of heat gain before and after the venous puncture was given. The radiant warmer saved the premature infant from hypothermia during the invasive procedure. However, it is inadvisable for routine care of newborn infants since it can increase insensible water loss.

Global Climate Models for the Classroom: The Educational Impact of Student Work with a Key Tool of Climate Scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bush, D. F.; Sieber, R.; Seiler, G.; Chandler, M. A.; Chmura, G. L.

2017-12-01

Efforts to address climate change require public understanding of Earth and climate science. To meet this need, educators require instructional approaches and scientific technologies that overcome cultural barriers to impart conceptual understanding of the work of climate scientists. We compared student inquiry learning with now ubiquitous climate education toy models, data and tools against that which took place using a computational global climate model (GCM) from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Our study at McGill University and John Abbott College in Montreal, QC sheds light on how best to teach the research processes important to Earth and climate scientists studying atmospheric and Earth system processes but ill-understood by those outside the scientific community. We followed a pre/post, control/treatment experimental design that enabled detailed analysis and statistically significant results. Our research found more students succeed at understanding climate change when exposed to actual climate research processes and instruments. Inquiry-based education with a GCM resulted in significantly higher scores pre to post on diagnostic exams (quantitatively) and more complete conceptual understandings (qualitatively). We recognize the difficulty in planning and teaching inquiry with complex technology and we also found evidence that lectures support learning geared toward assessment exams.

Examining Educational Climate Change Technology: How Group Inquiry Work with Realistic Scientific Technology Alters Classroom Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

2018-04-01

This study with 79 students in Montreal, Quebec, compared the educational use of a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) global climate model (GCM) to climate education technologies developed for classroom use that included simpler interfaces and processes. The goal was to show how differing climate education technologies succeed and fail at getting students to evolve in their understanding of anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC). Many available climate education technologies aim to convey key AGCC concepts or Earth systems processes; the educational GCM used here aims to teach students the methods and processes of global climate modeling. We hypothesized that challenges to learning about AGCC make authentic technology-enabled inquiry important in developing accurate understandings of not just the issue but how scientists research it. The goal was to determine if student learning trajectories differed between the comparison and treatment groups based on whether each climate education technology allowed authentic scientific research. We trace learning trajectories using pre/post exams, practice quizzes, and written student reflections. To examine the reasons for differing learning trajectories, we discuss student pre/post questionnaires, student exit interviews, and 535 min of recorded classroom video. Students who worked with a GCM demonstrated learning trajectories with larger gains, higher levels of engagement, and a better idea of how climate scientists conduct research. Students who worked with simpler climate education technologies scored lower in the course because of lower levels of engagement with inquiry processes that were perceived to not actually resemble the work of climate scientists.

Climate change projections of heat stress in Europe: From meteorological variables to impacts on productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casanueva, Ana; Kotlarski, Sven; Liniger, Mark A.

2017-04-01

Future climate change is likely to have important impacts in many socio-economic sectors. In particular, higher summer temperatures or more prolonged heat waves may be responsible for health problems and productivity losses related to heat stress, especially affecting people exposed to such situations (e.g. working under outside settings or in non-acclimatized workplaces). Heat stress on the body under work load and consequently their productivity loss can be described through heat stress indices that are based on multiple meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, wind and radiation. Exploring the changes of these variables under a warmer climate is of prime importance for the Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability communities. In particular, the H2020 project HEAT-SHIELD aims at analyzing the impact of climate change on heat stress in strategic industries in Europe (manufacturing, construction, transportation, tourism and agriculture) within an inter-sectoral framework (climate scientists, biometeorologists, physiologists and stakeholders). In the present work we explore present and future heat stress over Europe using an ensemble of the state-of-the-art RCMs from the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Since RCMs cannot be directly used in impact studies due to their partly substantial biases, a standard bias correction method (empirical quantile mapping) is applied to correct the individual variables that are then used to derive heat stress indices. The objectives of this study are twofold, 1) to test the ability of the separately bias corrected variables to reproduce the main characteristics of heat stress indices in present climate conditions and 2) to explore climate change projections of heat stress indices. We use the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) as primary heat stress index, considering two different versions for indoor (or in the shade, based on temperature and humidity conditions) and outdoor settings (including also wind and radiation). The WBGT

Climate Change Student Summits: A Model that Works (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huffman, L. T.

2013-12-01

The C2S2: Climate Change Student Summit project has completed four years of activities plus a year-long longitudinal evaluation with demonstrated positive impacts beyond the life of the project on both students and teachers. This presentation will share the lessons learned about implementing this climate change science education program and suggest that it is a successful model that can be used to scale up from its Midwestern roots to achieve measurable national impact. A NOAA Environmental Literacy grant allowed ANDRILL (ANtarctic geological DRILLing) to grow a 2008 pilot program involving 2 Midwestern sites, to a program 4 years later involving 10 sites. The excellent geographical coverage included 9 of the U.S. National Climate Assessment regions defined by the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Through the delivery of two professional development (PD) workshops, a unique opportunity was provided for both formal and informal educators to engage their classrooms/audiences in understanding the complexities of climate change. For maximum contact hours, the PD experience was extended throughout the school year through the use of an online grouphub. Student teams were involved in a creative investigative science research and presentation experience culminating in a Climate Change Student Summit, an on-site capstone event including a videoconference connecting all sites. The success of this program was based on combining multiple aspects, such as encouraging the active involvement of scientists and early career researchers both in the professional development workshops and in the Student Summit. Another key factor was the close working relationships between informal and formal science entities, including involvement of informal science learning facilities and informal science education leaders. The program also created cutting-edge curriculum materials titled the ELF, (Environmental Literacy Framework with a focus on climate change), providing an earth systems

Winter Precipitation Efficiency of Mountain Ranges in the Colorado Rockies Under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eidhammer, Trude; Grubišić, Vanda; Rasmussen, Roy; Ikdea, Kyoko

2018-03-01

Orographic precipitation depends on the environmental conditions and the barrier shape. In this study we examine the sensitivity of the precipitation efficiency (i.e., drying ratio (DR)), defined as the ratio of precipitation to incoming water flux, to mountain shape, temperature, stability, and horizontal velocity of the incoming air mass. Furthermore, we explore how the DR of Colorado mountain ranges might change under warmer and moister conditions in the future. For given environmental conditions, we find the DR to be primarily dependent on the upwind slope for mountain ranges wider than about 70 km and on both the slope and width for narrower ranges. Temperature is found to exert an influence on the DR for all Colorado mountain ranges, with DR decreasing with increasing temperature, under both the current and future climate conditions. The decrease of DR with temperature under warmer climate was found to be stronger for wider mountains than the narrower ones. We attribute this asymmetry to the sensitivity of DR to reduced horizontal velocity under warmer conditions. Specifically, while DR for wider mountains shows no sensitivity to changes in horizontal velocity, the DR for narrow ranges increases as the horizontal velocity decreases and more time is provided for precipitation to form. Thus, for narrower ranges, the horizontal velocity appears to offset the temperature effect slightly. The percentagewise decrease of DR for all examined mountain ranges is about 4%K-1. In comparison, the increase in precipitation is about 6%K-1 while the vapor flux increase is about 9%K-1.

Does warmer China land attract more super typhoons?

PubMed Central

Xu, Xiangde; Peng, Shiqiu; Yang, Xiangjing; Xu, Hongxiong; Tong, Daniel Q.; Wang, Dongxiao; Guo, Yudi; Chan, Johnny C. L.; Chen, Lianshou; Yu, Wei; Li, Yineng; Lai, Zhijuan; Zhang, Shengjun

2013-01-01

Accurate prediction of where and when typhoons (or named hurricanes which form over the North Atlantic Ocean) will make landfall is critical to protecting human lives and properties. Although the traditional method of typhoon track prediction based on the steering flow theory has been proven to be an effective way in most situations, it slipped up in some cases. Our analysis of the long-term Chinese typhoon records reveals that typhoons, especially super typhoons (those with maximum sustained surface winds of greater than 51 ms−1), have a trend to make landfalls toward warmer land in China over the past 50 years (1960–2009). Numerical sensitivity experiments using an advanced atmospheric model further confirm this finding. Our finding suggests an alternative approach to predict the landfall tracks of the most devastating typhoons in the southeastern China. PMID:23519311

Climate at high obliquity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, J.; Ferreira, D.; O'Gorman, P. A.; Seager, S.

2011-12-01

One method of studying earth-like exoplanets is to view earth as an exoplanet and consider how its climate might change if, for example, its obliquity were ranged from 0 to 90 degrees. High values of obliquity challenge our understanding of climate dynamics because if obliquity exceeds 54 degrees, then polar latitudes receive more energy per unit area than do equatorial latitudes. Thus the pole will become warmer than the equator and we are led to consider a world in which the meridional temperature gradients, and associated prevailing zonal wind, have the opposite sign to the present earth. The problem becomes even richer when one considers the dynamics of an ocean, should one exist below. A central question for the ocean circulation is: what is the pattern of surface winds at high obliquities?, for it is the winds that drive the ocean currents and thermohaline circulation. How do atmospheric weather systems growing in the easterly sheared middle latitude jets determine the surface wind pattern? Should one expect middle latitude easterly winds? Finally, a key aspect with regard to habitability is to understand how the atmosphere and ocean of this high obliquity planet work cooperatively together to transport energy meridionally, mediating the warmth of the poles and the coldness of the equator. How extreme are seasonal temperature fluctuations? Should one expect to find ice around the equator? Possible answers to some of these questions have been sought by experimentation with a coupled atmosphere, ocean and sea-ice General Circulation Model of an earth-like aquaplanet: i.e. a planet like our own but on which there is only an ocean but no land. The coupled climate is studied across a range of obliquities (23.5, 54 and 90). We present some of the descriptive climatology of our solutions and how they shed light on the deeper questions of coupled climate dynamics that motivate them. We also review what they tell us about habitability on such planets.

Climatic controls of aboveground net primary production in semi-arid grasslands along a latitudinal gradient portend low sensitivity to warming

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Although climate models forecast warmer temperatures with a high degree of certainty, precipitation is the primary driver of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in most grasslands. In contrast, variations in temperature seldom are related to patterns of ANPP. Thus forecasting responses to wa...

Projected Impacts of Climate, Urbanization, Water Management, and Wetland Restoration on Waterbird Habitat in California’s Central Valley

PubMed Central

Fleskes, Joseph P.

2017-01-01

The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006–2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the “existing” landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional

Projected impacts of climate, urbanization, water management, and wetland restoration on waterbird habitat in California’s Central Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matchett, Elliott L.; Fleskes, Joseph

2017-01-01

The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006–2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the “existing” landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, James W. C.; Alley, Richard B.; Archer, David E.; Barnosky, Anthony D.; Dunlea, Edward; Foley, Jonathan; Fu, Rong; Holland, Marika M.; Lozier, M. Susan; Schmitt, Johanna; Smith, Laurence C.; Sugihara, George; Thompson, David W. J.; Weaver, Andrew J.; Wofsy, Steven C.

2014-05-01

Levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are exceeding levels recorded in the past millions of years, and thus climate is being forced beyond the range of the recent geological era. Lacking concerted action by the world's nations, it is clear that the future climate will be warmer, sea levels will rise, global rainfall patterns will change, and ecosystems will be altered. However, there is still uncertainty about how we will arrive at that future climate state. Although many projections of future climatic conditions have predicted steadily changing conditions giving the impression that communities have time to gradually adapt, the scientific community has been paying increasing attention to the possibility that at least some changes will be abrupt, perhaps crossing a threshold or "tipping point" to change so quickly that there will be little time to react. This presentation will synopsize the new US National Research Council Report, Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises, highlighting areas of increased and decreased concern, as well as areas of new concern. Emphasis is placed on not only abrupt change in physical climate, but on abrupt changes in human and natural systems that can occur as a result of a slowly changing climate. The report calls for action now on an abrupt change early warning system (ACEWS) if societies are to be resilient to climate change.

Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, Colin; Rind, David

1994-01-01

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) is used to study the possible implications of past and future climate change on global lightning frequencies. Two climate change experiments were conducted: one for a 2 x CO2 climate (representing a 4.2 degs C global warming) and one for a 2% decrease in the solar constant (representing a 5.9 degs C global cooling). The results suggest at 30% increase in global lightning activity for the warmer climate and a 24% decrease in global lightning activity for the colder climate. This implies an approximate 5-6% change in global lightning frequencies for every 1 degs C global warming/cooling. Both intracloud and cloud-to-ground frequencies are modeled, with cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies showing larger sensitivity to climate change than intracloud frequencies. The magnitude of the modeled lightning changes depends on season, location, and even time of day.

Roles of safety climate and shift work on perceived injury risk: a multi-level analysis.

PubMed

Huang, Yueng-Hsiang; Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; DeArmond, Sarah; Cigularov, Konstantin; Chen, Peter Y

2007-11-01

This study evaluated the relationship between employees' work shift (i.e., day shift versus night shift) and perceptions of injury risk, and how the relationship is affected by company level safety climate and injury frequency. The results showed that night shift workers perceived a higher level of injury risk compared to day shift workers. Both company level safety climate and injury frequency played critical roles in predicting individual perceived work injury risk. Perception of injury risk of night shift workers was significantly lower when they perceived high-level rather than low-level safety climate. However, this pattern was not noticeable for day shift workers. These findings highlighted the importance of considering company level factors when attempting to understand the differences between day shift and night shift work on an individual's perception of injury risk.

Effects of the Bering Strait closure on AMOC and global climate under different background climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A.; Han, Weiqing; Otto-Bliestner, Bette; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Rosenbloom, Nan

2015-03-01

Previous studies have suggested that the status of the Bering Strait may have a significant influence on global climate variability on centennial, millennial, and even longer time scales. Here we use multiple versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM, versions 2 and 3) to investigate the influence of the Bering Strait closure/opening on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and global mean climate under present-day, 15 thousand-year before present (kyr BP), and 112 kyr BP climate boundary conditions. Our results show that regardless of the version of the model used or the widely different background climates, the Bering Strait's closure produces a robust result of a strengthening of the AMOC, and an increase in the northward meridional heat transport in the Atlantic. As a consequence, the climate becomes warmer in the North Atlantic and the surrounding regions, but cooler in the North Pacific, leading to a seesaw-like climate change between these two basins. For the first time it is noted that the absence of the Bering Strait throughflow causes a slower motion of Arctic sea ice, a reduced upper ocean water exchange between the Arctic and North Atlantic, reduced sea ice export and less fresh water in the North Atlantic. These changes contribute positively to the increased upper ocean density there, thus strengthening the AMOC. Potentially these changes in the North Atlantic could have a significant effect on the ice sheets both upstream and downstream in ice age climate, and further influence global sea level changes.

Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDowell, Nathan G.; Allen, Craig D.

2015-07-01

Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle. We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy’s law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy’s law indicates today’s forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy’s corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. Given the robustness of Darcy’s law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today’s forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

Public and Private Hospital Nurses’ Perceptions of the Ethical Climate in Their Work Settings, Sari City, 2011

PubMed Central

Ghorbani, Ali Asghar; Hesamzadeh, Ali; Khademloo, Mohammad; Khalili, Salimeh; Hesamzadeh, Shamim; Berger, Valerie

2014-01-01

Background: Nurses’ perceptions of ethical climate patterns have certain undeniable effects on hospitals. There is little evidence of possible differences in this element between public and private hospitals and contributing factors. Objectives: This study investigated whether the perceptions of the ethical climate in nurses’ working in public hospitals differ from that of nurses in private hospitals, and which factors may affect nurses’ perceptions. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study of randomly selected registered nurses (n = 235), working in four public hospitals affiliated to Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, and three private hospitals, was conducted in Sari City, Iran. A self-administered questionnaire, containing demographic characteristics and the Hospital Ethical Climate Survey (HECS), were used to assess registered nurses’ perceptions of public and private hospitals ethical climate. An independent t-test and one-way ANOVA were used to analyze the data. Results: Across the five factors of HECS, the highest and lowest mean scores pertained to managers and physicians, respectively, in both public and private hospitals. Nurses who had a conditional employment situation and those working in pediatric intensive care units showed significantly more positive perceptions of the ethical work climate when compared to their peers (P < 0.05). Although the mean score of ethical work climate in private hospitals (3.82 ± 0.61) was higher than that in public hospitals (3.76 ± 0.54), no significant difference was found (P = 0.44). Conclusions: Hospital managers need to discover better ways to promote safety and health programs for their staff according to nurses’ area of work and their type of units. They should also encourage greater levels of participation in safety-enhancing initiatives in the hospital’s ethical climate, especially in the areas of nurses’ perceptions of their physician colleagues, and for nurses with a conditional

Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability. Chapter 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perlwitz, J.; Knutson, T.; Kossin, J. P.; LeGrande, A. N.

2017-01-01

The causes of regional climate trends cannot be understood without considering the impact of variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation and an assessment of the role of internally generated climate variability. There are contributions to regional climate trends from changes in large-scale latitudinal circulation, which is generally organized into three cells in each hemisphere-Hadley cell, Ferrell cell and Polar cell-and which determines the location of subtropical dry zones and midlatitude jet streams. These circulation cells are expected to shift poleward during warmer periods, which could result in poleward shifts in precipitation patterns, affecting natural ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. In addition, regional climate can be strongly affected by non-local responses to recurring patterns (or modes) of variability of the atmospheric circulation or the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. These modes of variability represent preferred spatial patterns and their temporal variation. They account for gross features in variance and for teleconnections which describe climate links between geographically separated regions. Modes of variability are often described as a product of a spatial climate pattern and an associated climate index time series that are identified based on statistical methods like Principal Component Analysis (PC analysis), which is also called Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (EOF analysis), and cluster analysis.

Influence of climate on the survivorship of neonatal red pandas in captivity.

PubMed

Princée, Frank P G; Glatston, Angela R

2016-01-01

Red pandas, Ailurus fulgens, are popular exhibit animals in zoos. It is clear from data in the global studbook that there is considerable variation in their breeding success in different zoos. Population managers have long suspected that environmental temperature plays a key role in these differences. It is generally thought that this species, which is so well adapted to life in the cold damp climate of the mid-altitude forests of the Himalayas, has a problem coping with warmer climates. However, this hypothesis has not been tested until now. Using data extracted from the global studbook, we have demonstrated that climate at the location of birth has a clear impact on the survival of infant red pandas. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Climate Change and Fish Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, Paul P. S.; Lassa, Jonatan; Caballero-Anthony, Mely

Human consumption of fish has been trending upwards in the past decades and this is projected to continue. The main sources of fish are from wild fisheries (marine and freshwater) and aquaculture. Climate change is anticipated to affect the availability of fish through its effect on these two sources as well as on supply chain processes such as storage, transport, processing and retail. Climate change is known to result in warmer and more acid oceans. Ocean acidification due to higher CO2 concentration levels at sea modifies the distribution of phytoplankton and zooplankton to affect wild, capture fisheries. Higher temperature causes warm-water coral reefs to respond with species replacement and bleaching, leading to coral cover loss and habitat loss. Global changes in climatic systems may also cause fish invasion, extinction and turnover. While this may be catastrophic for small scale fish farming in poor tropical communities, there are also potential effects on animal protein supply shifts at local and global scales with food security consequences. This paper discusses the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture in the Asian Pacific region, with special emphasis on Southeast Asia. The key question to be addressed is “What are the impacts of global climate change on global fish harvests and what does it mean to the availability of fish?”

A mediation model linking dispatcher leadership and work ownership with safety climate as predictors of truck driver safety performance.

PubMed

Zohar, Dov; Huang, Yueng-hsiang; Lee, Jin; Robertson, Michelle

2014-01-01

The study was designed to test the effect of safety climate on safety behavior among lone employees whose work environment promotes individual rather than consensual or shared climate perceptions. The paper presents a mediation path model linking psychological (individual-level) safety climate antecedents and consequences as predictors of driving safety of long-haul truck drivers. Climate antecedents included dispatcher (distant) leadership and driver work ownership, two contextual attributes of lone work, whereas its proximal consequence included driving safety. Using a prospective design, safety outcomes, consisting of hard-braking frequency (i.e. traffic near-miss events) were collected six months after survey completion, using GPS-based truck deceleration data. Results supported the hypothesized model, indicating that distant leadership style and work ownership promote psychological safety climate perceptions, with subsequent prediction of hard-braking events mediated by driving safety. Theoretical and practical implications for studying safety climate among lone workers in general and professional drivers in particular are discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climatic Controls on Forest Productivity in Western North America; Variability, Covariability, and Projected Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, L. R.; Rupp, D. E.; Li, S.; Mote, P.; Sparrow, S.; Massey, N.

2016-12-01

The forests of western North America serve as a carbon sink sequestering carbon and slowing the rise of CO2 in the atmosphere. Though still positive, the rate of net carbon uptake has been in decline over the past two decades. Regional drought has been shown to slow forest productivity and net carbon uptake despite warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons. With drought conditions projected to increase in frequency and severity under climate change there is concern that these forests' capacity as an effective carbon sink will continue to decrease in the future. To investigate how changes in regional hydroclimate may affect future carbon uptake in western US forests we dynamically downscaled global climate simulations using a 25-km resolution regional climate model HadRM3P with the land surface scheme MOSES2. We generated a 100-member ensemble of simulations for an historical period (1985-2015) and mid-21st century period (2030-2060) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. We evaluated the effects of regional changes in atmospheric moisture demand, seasonality of water supply, and water stress on forest productivity and carbon uptake. We investigated how these changes in hydroclimate interact with the relaxing of temperature controls. This work can inform future adaptation efforts through improving our understanding of climatic controls on forest carbon sequestration.

Climate warming could increase recruitment success in glacier foreland plants.

PubMed

Mondoni, Andrea; Pedrini, Simone; Bernareggi, Giulietta; Rossi, Graziano; Abeli, Thomas; Probert, Robin J; Ghitti, Michele; Bonomi, Costantino; Orsenigo, Simone

2015-11-01

Glacier foreland plants are highly threatened by global warming. Regeneration from seeds on deglaciated terrain will be crucial for successful migration and survival of these species, and hence a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on seedling recruitment is urgently needed to predict future plant persistence in these environments. This study presents the first field evidence of the impact of climate change on recruitment success of glacier foreland plants. Seeds of eight foreland species were sown on a foreland site at 2500 m a.s.l., and at a site 400 m lower in altitude to simulate a 2·7 °C increase in mean annual temperature. Soil from the site of origin was used to reproduce the natural germination substrate. Recruitment success, temperature and water potential were monitored for 2 years. The response of seed germination to warming was further investigated in the laboratory. At the glacier foreland site, seedling emergence was low (0 to approx. 40 %) and occurred in summer in all species after seeds had experienced autumn and winter seasons. However, at the warmer site there was a shift from summer to autumn emergence in two species and a significant increase of summer emergence (13-35 % higher) in all species except two. Survival and establishment was possible for 60-75 % of autumn-emerged seedlings and was generally greater under warmer conditions. Early snowmelt in spring caused the main ecological factors enhancing the recruitment success. The results suggest that warming will influence the recruitment of glacier foreland species primarily via the extension of the snow-free period in spring, which increases seedling establishment and results in a greater resistance to summer drought and winter extremes. The changes in recruitment success observed here imply that range shifts or changes in abundance are possible in a future warmer climate, but overall success may be dependent on interactions with shifts in other components of the

Spatial-temporal controls on peatland carbon dynamics in the Hudson Bay Lowland, Canada: Reducing landscape-scale uncertainty in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Packalen, M. S.; Finkelstein, S. A.; McLaughlin, J.

2015-12-01

Global peatlands currently store more than 650 Pg of carbon (C) that has accumulated over millennia, and contributed to a net climatic cooling. However, controls on spatial-temporal C dynamics may differ regionally. With at least 30 Pg C sequestered in the Hudson Bay Lowlands Canada (HBL), the vulnerability of this globally significant peat C reservoir remains uncertain under conditions of a changing climate and enhanced anthropogenic pressure. Here, we synthesize our current understanding of controls on C dynamics in the HBL using detailed peat records. Our data reveal that widespread bog-fen patterning across the HBL is related to the distribution of peat C in space and time, indicating that topographic and ecohydroclimatic controls are potentially important determinants of C mass accretion. We find that while peat age is closely related to timing of land emergence and peat depth in the HBL, considerable variation in the total C mass among sites of similar peat age suggests that additional factors may further explain trends in peat C dynamics. Among these factors, we find that temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration in the HBL account for up to half of the variation in the distribution of the peat C mass, whereby regions with warmer and wetter conditions support larger peat C masses. Moreover, we find that the rate of C accumulation is greatest for young fen peatlands developing during warmer mid-Holocene climates; but that long-term C stores are greatest in association with bog peatlands. Although nearly two-thirds of HBL peat C is of late Holocene age, most of the reconstructed potential C losses also occurred during the late Holocene, as previously accrued peat decayed. Our findings support the hypothesis that both climate and ecohydrological factors are important drivers of peat C dynamics in the HBL, alongside geophysical controls on the timing of peat initiation. As the HBL peat complex continues to rapidly expand, it may remain a

Teaching a Relational Approach to Climate Change: Working with People and Conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kearns, F.

2015-12-01

In 2010, science and technology studies expert Sheila Jasanoff concluded an article in Science by observing that the scientific community "…has demonstrated that it can learn and change in its methods of representing science to scientists. That ingenuity should now be directed toward building relationships of trust and respect with the global citizens whose future climate science has undertaken to predict and reshape." This kind of statement indicates a large shift in the focus on climate-related work, in a sense concluding that the scientific conclusions are well-established, but there is a human-to-human, relationship-based element of the work that needs attention. At the same time, there is increasing emphasis on transitioning to more participatory models of research, practice, and engagement in climate work, the human relationships that underlie these approaches are rarely explicitly addressed. For example, conflict, a key relational process, is often an inevitable element of engagement in societal processes. Although conflict can lead toward more successful long-term solutions if addressed constructively, dealing with it can be highly uncomfortable on an individual level and is often avoided. Acknowledging the often pivotal role conflict plays in eventual solutions bolsters the notion of complementing current training with a focus on relationship building. Professional development to increase relational capacity is being adopted in fields such as law and medicine; these same approaches are also increasingly relevant for climate practitioners where strong emotions such as grief and anxiety are often present for both practitioners and those they interact with. A framework for teaching and learning to effectively interact in this rich, relational world will be presented.

Abrupt Climate Change in the Southern Great Plains during the Last Glacial Interval

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Housson, A. L.; Maupin, C. R.; Roark, B.; Shen, C. C.; Baykara, O.; White, K.; Kampen-Lewis, S. V.; McChesney, C. L.

2016-12-01

Understanding how the climate of the North American Great Plains may change in the future is of tremendous socioeconomic importance, yet the regional response to previous abrupt global climate events, such as the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles of the last glacial interval, are poorly known. Here we present two absolutely dated (U/Th), partially replicated oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from calcite speleothems in central Texas (30° N, 98° W) that grew during marine isotope stage 3 (MIS 3) (31 to 49 ky BP). The study site experiences boreal spring and fall maxima in precipitation with rainfall moisture sourced almost exclusively from the Gulf of Mexico. The two samples exhibit reproducible δ18O means and variability during overlapping growth intervals. Weak correlations between paired oxygen and carbon isotopic values coupled with reproducible δ18O strongly suggest that dripwater δ18O and calcite formation temperatures are the primary drivers of speleothem δ18O variations through time. We interpret more depleted (enriched) δ18O values to reconstruct warmer and wetter (cooler and drier) conditions based on observations of modern rainfall stable isotope variations at the study site. We find that warmer and wetter conditions in the Southern Plains are contemporaneous with MIS 3 DO interstadials, while cooler and more arid conditions prevail during stadials and Heinrich Events 4 and 5. Our results show a response opposite that of hydrologic reconstructions from the American Southwest, where wetter conditions occur with stadial conditions. Future work includes exploration of paleoclimate model results to examine potential mechanisms responsible for this opposite phasing. Our speleothem data indicate that further intensification of rainy seasons in the Southern Plains should not be ruled out as a response to anthropogenic global warming.

Terrestrial and marine records of climatic and environmental changes during the Pliocene in subtropical Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Willard, D.A.; Cronin, T. M.; Ishman, S.E.; Litwin, R.J.

1993-01-01

Pollen, ostracode, and benthic foraminifer assemblages deposited during sea-level highstands in subtropical Florida record a climate change during the period 4.5-1.0 Ma. Before 3.5 Ma, open-shelf marine faunas and pollen assemblages with abundant Pinus, Quercus, Fagus, Carya, and nonarboreal pollen were present, indicating cooler conditions than today. From ~3.5 to 1.0 Ma, marine and terrestrial records indicate warmer conditions, similar to those existing in south Florida today. Combined with evidence for much warmer than modern conditions at high latitudes, these data suggest that increased poleward oceanic heat transport, possibly related to the emergence of the Central American isthmus between ~3.5 and 2.5 Ma, was a major influence on mid-Pliocene warmth. -Authors

Investigating Climate at an Inland Sea During Snowball Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, A. J.; Bitz, C. M.; Warren, S. G.; Waddington, E. D.

2013-12-01

During the Neoproterozoic, the Earth's oceans may have been completely covered with thick ice, during periods commonly called Snowball Earth events. The Snowball Earth environment would seemingly have prohibited the survival of photosynthetic eukaryotic algae; however, these organisms were alive immediately prior to and immediate subsequent to these periods. Where on a Snowball Earth, or a Snowball-like exoplanet, could photosynthetic eukaryotic algae survive? Recent research, in attempt to reconcile this paradox, has demonstrated that narrow channels connected the ocean, called inland seas, could have provided refugia for photosynthetic eukaryotic algae during Snowball Earth events. Narrow channels could have restricted the flow of ocean-derived ice, called sea glaciers, diminishing sea-glacier penetration into these channels. Provided certain climate conditions and channel geometries, this diminished sea-glacier penetration would have allowed for either open water or thin sea ice, at the far end of these channels. A channel with open water or thin sea ice would provide the conditions needed for survival of photosynthetic eukaryotic algae. Here we test whether the climate needed to prevent sea-glacier penetration, could have existed in the special inland sea environment. Previous climate modeling of Snowball Earth has shown that tropical regions would have likely been warmer than the global average and would have experienced net sublimation at the surface. An inland sea located in the tropics would be surrounded by land that is bare and free from snow, while the inland sea itself would be either ice-covered or open water. With these conditions the inland sea would likely have a high albedo, while the surrounding bare land, would have a lower albedo. This albedo contrast could cause the climate over an inland sea to be warmer than the climate over the ice-covered ocean at the same latitude. We calculate the surface temperature and sublimation rate at an inland sea

Flash floods in small Alpine catchments in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breinl, Korbinian; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2017-04-01

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of hazardous meteorological and hydrological events in numerous mountainous areas. The mountain environment is becoming more and more important for urbanization and the tourism-based economy. Here we show new and innovative methodologies for assessing intensity and frequency of flash floods in small Alpine catchments, in South Tyrol (Italy), under climate change. This research is done within the STEEP STREAMS project, whereby we work closely with decision makers in Italian authorities, and the final goal is to provide them with clear guidelines on how to adapt current structural solutions for mitigating hazardous events under future climate conditions. To this end, we develop a coupled framework of weather generation (i.e. extrapolation of observations and trained with climate projections), time series disaggregation and hydrological modelling using the conceptual HBV model. One of the key challenges is the transfer of comparatively coarse RCM projections to small catchments, whose sizes range from only about 10km2 to 100km2. We examine different strategies to downscale the RCM data from e.g. the EURO-CORDEX dataset using our weather generator. The selected projections represent combinations of warmer, milder, drier and wetter conditions. In general, our main focus is to develop an improved understanding of the impact of the multiple sources of uncertainty in this modelling framework, and make these uncertainties tangible. The output of this study (i.e. discharge with a return period and associated uncertainty) will allow hydraulic and sediment transport modelling of flash floods and debris flows.

Dynamical Core in Atmospheric Model Does Matter in the Simulation of Arctic Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jun, Sang-Yoon; Choi, Suk-Jin; Kim, Baek-Min

2018-03-01

Climate models using different dynamical cores can simulate significantly different winter Arctic climates even if equipped with virtually the same physics schemes. Current climate simulated by the global climate model using cubed-sphere grid with spectral element method (SE core) exhibited significantly warmer Arctic surface air temperature compared to that using latitude-longitude grid with finite volume method core. Compared to the finite volume method core, SE core simulated additional adiabatic warming in the Arctic lower atmosphere, and this was consistent with the eddy-forced secondary circulation. Downward longwave radiation further enhanced Arctic near-surface warming with a higher surface air temperature of about 1.9 K. Furthermore, in the atmospheric response to the reduced sea ice conditions with the same physical settings, only the SE core showed a robust cooling response over North America. We emphasize that special attention is needed in selecting the dynamical core of climate models in the simulation of the Arctic climate and associated teleconnection patterns.

Boreal forests, aerosols and the impacts on clouds and climate.

PubMed

Spracklen, Dominick V; Bonn, Boris; Carslaw, Kenneth S

2008-12-28

Previous studies have concluded that boreal forests warm the climate because the cooling from storage of carbon in vegetation and soils is cancelled out by the warming due to the absorption of the Sun's heat by the dark forest canopy. However, these studies ignored the impacts of forests on atmospheric aerosol. We use a global atmospheric model to show that, through emission of organic vapours and the resulting condensational growth of newly formed particles, boreal forests double regional cloud condensation nuclei concentrations (from approx. 100 to approx. 200 cm(-3)). Using a simple radiative model, we estimate that the resulting change in cloud albedo causes a radiative forcing of between -1.8 and -6.7 W m(-2) of forest. This forcing may be sufficiently large to result in boreal forests having an overall cooling impact on climate. We propose that the combination of climate forcings related to boreal forests may result in an important global homeostasis. In cold climatic conditions, the snow-vegetation albedo effect dominates and boreal forests warm the climate, whereas in warmer climates they may emit sufficiently large amounts of organic vapour modifying cloud albedo and acting to cool climate.

Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortalityunder climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.

2015-12-01

Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle. We used a hydraulic corollary to Darcy's law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy's law indicates today's forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy's corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. There are assumptions and omissions in this theoretical prediction, as well as new evidence supporting its predictions, both of which I will review. Given the robustness of Darcy's law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today's forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

Research issues in grazing lands under changing climate. Volume 12, Part 16. Environmental and societal consequences of a possible CO/sub 2/-induced climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pendleton, D.F.; Van Dyne, G.M.

1982-12-01

A study has been made of issues and researchable questions regarding the influence of potential CO/sub 2/-induced climatic change on grazing lands. Generalized scenarios of possible changes in climate in grazing land regions of the world were constructed based on published and ongoing investigations. These studies were of two general types: (i) general circulation climate, and (ii) analyses of historical data for periods which were warmer than average current conditions, based on the assumption that global warming can be expected. A review of scenarios derived from recent research suggests that surface temperature may increase and precipitation may decrease in somemore » important grazing land regions of the world. Research needs related specifically to climate in grazing lands were discussed. In the second workship, scientists discussed individual abiotic, autotrophic, and heterotrophic processes. Potential studies of these processes which were discussed included (i) work in the laboratory and the field, (ii) modelling, and (iii) analysis and synthesis of existing data bases and scientific literature. Both biological and socio-economic issues were discussed. Several overall conclusions were derived including the following: a planned, time-phased, and integrated study would be desirable to obtain the greatest amount of information for the least amount of funding in future investigations; a relatively small interdisciplinary group should be assembled consisting of individuals with backgrounds in such areas as meteorology, plant ecology, animal ecology, range science, economics, sociology, and systems analysis, and should operate over perhaps 10 years and draw upon specific short-term contractual inputs.« less

Health and vitality assessment of two common pine species in the context of climate change in southern Europe.

PubMed

Sicard, Pierre; Dalstein-Richier, Laurence

2015-02-01

The Mediterranean Basin is expected to be more strongly affected by ongoing climate change than most other regions of the earth. The South-eastern France can be considered as case study for assessing global change impacts on forests. Based on non-parametric statistical tests, the climatic parameters (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, global radiation) and forest-response indicators (crown defoliation, discoloration and visible foliar ozone injury) of two pine species (Pinus halepensis and Pinus cembra) were analyzed. In the last 20 years, the trend analyses reveal a clear hotter and drier climate along the coastline and slightly rainier inland. In the current climate change context, a reduction in ground-level ozone (O3) was found at remote sites and the visible foliar O3 injury decreased while deterioration of the crown conditions was observed likely due to a drier and warmer climate. Clearly, if such climatic and ecological changes are now being detected when the climate, in South-eastern France, has warmed in the last 20 years (+0.46-1.08°C), it can be expected that many more impacts on tree species will occur in response to predicted temperature changes by 2100 (+1.95-4.59°C). Climate change is projected to reduce the benefits of O3 precursor emissions controls leading to a higher O3 uptake. However, the drier and warmer climate should induce a soil drought leading to a lower O3 uptake. These two effects, acting together in an opposite way, could mitigate the harmful impacts of O3 on forests. The development of coordinated emission abatement strategies is useful to reduce both climate change and O3 pollution. Climate change will create additional challenges for forest management with substantial socio-economic and biological diversity impacts. However, the development of future sustainable and adaptive forest management strategies has the potential to reduce the vulnerability of forest species to climate change. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All

Linked hydrologic and climate variations in British Columbia and Yukon.

PubMed

Whitfield, P H

2001-01-01

Climatic and hydrologic variations between the decades 1976-1985 and 1986-1995 are examined at 34 climate stations and 275 hydrology stations. The variations in climate are distributed across a broad spatial area. Temperatures were generally warmer in the most recent decade, with many stations showing significant increases during the spring and fall. No significant decreases in temperature were found. Significant increases in temperature were more frequent in the south than in the northern portions of the region. Significant changes in precipitation were also more prevalent in the south. In coastal areas, there were significant decreases in precipitation during the dry season, and significant increases during the wet season. In the BC interior, significant precipitation decreases occurred during the fall, with significant increases during the winter and spring. In the north there were few changes in precipitation. The hydrologic responses to these variations in climate follow six distinctive patterns. The spatial distribution of these patterns suggests that in different ecozones, small variations in climate, particularly temperature, elicit different hydrologic responses.

The contrasting effects of short-term climate change on the early recruitment of tree species.

PubMed

Ibáñez, Inés; Katz, Daniel S W; Lee, Benjamin R

2017-07-01

Predictions of plant responses to climate change are frequently based on organisms' presence in warmer locations, which are then assumed to reflect future performance in cooler areas. However, as plant life stages may be affected differently by environmental changes, there is little empirical evidence that this approach provides reliable estimates of short-term responses to global warming. Under this premise, we analyzed 8 years of early recruitment data, seed production and seedling establishment and survival, collected for two tree species at two latitudes. We quantified recruitment to a wide range of environmental conditions, temperature, soil moisture and light, and simulated recruitment under two forecasted climatic scenarios. Annual demographic transitions were affected by the particular conditions taking place during their onset, but the effects of similar environmental shifts differed among the recruitment stages; seed production was higher in warmer years, while seedling establishment and survival peaked during cold years. Within a species, these effects also varied between latitudes; increasing temperatures at the southern location will have stronger detrimental effects on recruitment than similar changes at the northern locations. Our simulations illustrate that warmer temperatures may increase seed production, but they will have a negative effect on establishment and survival. When the three early recruitment processes were simultaneously considered, simulations showed little change in recruitment dynamics at the northern site and a slight decrease at the southern site. It is only when we considered these three stages that we were able to assess likely changes in early recruitment under the predicted conditions.

75 FR 54871 - National Drinking Water Advisory Council's Climate Ready Water Utilities Working Group Meeting...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-09

... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9198-8] National Drinking Water Advisory Council's Climate... final in-person meeting of the Climate Ready Water Utilities (CRWU) Working Group of the National Drinking Water Advisory Council (NDWAC). The purpose of this meeting is to review and discuss final changes...

Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation.

PubMed

Stenseth, Nils Chr; Samia, Noelle I; Viljugrein, Hildegunn; Kausrud, Kyrre Linné; Begon, Mike; Davis, Stephen; Leirs, Herwig; Dubyanskiy, V M; Esper, Jan; Ageyev, Vladimir S; Klassovskiy, Nikolay L; Pole, Sergey B; Chan, Kung-Sik

2006-08-29

The bacterium Yersinia pestis causes bubonic plague. In Central Asia, where human plague is still reported regularly, the bacterium is common in natural populations of great gerbils. By using field data from 1949-1995 and previously undescribed statistical techniques, we show that Y. pestis prevalence in gerbils increases with warmer springs and wetter summers: A 1 degrees C increase in spring is predicted to lead to a >50% increase in prevalence. Climatic conditions favoring plague apparently existed in this region at the onset of the Black Death as well as when the most recent plague pandemic arose in the same region, and they are expected to continue or become more favorable as a result of climate change. Threats of outbreaks may thus be increasing where humans live in close contact with rodents and fleas (or other wildlife) harboring endemic plague.

Darcy’s law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDowell, Nate G.; Allen, Craig D.

2015-01-01

Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle. We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy’s law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy’s law indicates today’s forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy’s corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. Given the robustness of Darcy’s law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today’s forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

Possible climate warming effects on vegetation, forests, biotic (insect, pathogene) disturbances and agriculture in Central Siberia for 1960- 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Soja, A. J.; Lysanova, G. I.; Baranchikov, Y. N.; Kuzmina, N. A.

2012-04-01

Regional Siberian studies have already registered climate warming over the last half a century (1960-2010). Our analysis showed that winters are already 2-3°C warmer in the north and 1-2°C warmer in the south by 2010. Summer temperatures increased by 1°C in the north and by 1-2°C in the south. Change in precipitation is more complicated, increasing on average 10% in middle latitudes and decreasing 10-20% in the south, promoting local drying in already dry landscapes. Our goal was to summarize results of research we have done for the last decade in the context of climate warming and its consequences for biosystems in Central Siberia. We modeled climate change effects on vegetation shifts, on forest composition and agriculture change, on the insect Siberian moth (Dendrolimus suprans sibiricus Tschetv) and pathogene (Lophodermium pinastri Chev) ranges in Central Siberia for a century (1960-2050) based on historical climate data and GCM-predicted data. Principal results are: In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over 50% of central Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest-steppe habitats; At least half of central Siberia is predicted to be climatically suitable for agriculture at the end of the century although potential croplands would be limited by the availability of suitable soils agriculture in central Siberia would likely benefit from climate warming Crop production may twofold increase as climate warms during the century; traditional crops (grain, potato

Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to variation in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather.

Treesearch

Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Robert H. Gardner; Sandra Lavorel; Mike D. Flannigan; Ian D. Davies; Chao Li; James M. Lenihan; T. Scott Rupp; Florent Mouillot

2006-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of nlodelled area burned to environmental factors across a range of independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The sensitivity of area burned to variation in four factors, namely terrain (flat, undulating and mountainous), fuel pattern (finely and coarsely clumped), climate (observed, warmer &...

Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to variation in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather

Treesearch

Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Robert H. Gardner; Sandra Lavorel; Michael D. Flannigan; Ian D. Davies; Chao Li; James M. Lenihan; T. Scott Rupp; Florent Mouillot

2006-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of modelled area burned to environmental factors across a range of independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The sensitivity of area burned to variation in four factors, namely terrain (flat, undulating and mountainous), fuel pattern (finely and coarsely clumped), climate (observed, warmer &...

Analysis of different adsorption heat transformation applications and working pairs for climatic regions of Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grekova, A. D.; Gordeeva, L. G.

2018-04-01

Adsorption heat transformation is an energy and environment saving technology for cooling/heating driven by renewable energy sources. Each specific cycle of adsorption heat transformer (AHT) makes particular requirements to the properties of the sorption material, depending on the climatic zone in which the AHT is used, the type of application (cooling, heating and heat storage), and energy source used for regenerating the sorbent. Therefore, the effective operation of AHT can be realized only if the working pair "adsorbent-adsorbate" is intelligently selected in accordance with the requirements of a particular working cycle. One of the most important factors influencing the choice of a working pair is the climatic conditions in which the AHT will operate. In this paper, the climatic conditions of various regions of Russian Federation (RF) were analyzed. For each considered zone, the boundary potentials of Polanyi corresponding to different AHT cycles are calculated. The sorption equilibrium data of various sorbents with water and methanol presented in the literature are summarized, and characteristic sorption curves are plotted in coordinates "sorption - the Polanyi potential". The characteristic adsorption curves found are approximated by analytic expressions, which allow the analysis of working pairs applicability for different AHT cycles. The recommendations of using the discussed sorption pairs under conditions of determined climatic zones are given for the AHT applications.

Deacclimation may be crucial for winter survival of cereals under warming climate.

PubMed

Rapacz, Marcin; Jurczyk, Barbara; Sasal, Monika

2017-03-01

Climate warming can change the winter weather patterns. Warmer temperatures during winter result in a lower risk of extreme freezing events. On the other hand the predicted warm gaps during winter will decrease their freezing tolerance. Both contradict effects will affect winter survival but their resultant effect is unclear. In this paper, we demonstrate that climate warming may result in a decrease in winter survival of plants. A field study of winterhardiness of common wheat and triticale was established at 11 locations and repeated during three subsequent winters. The freezing tolerance of the plants was studied after controlled cold acclimation and de-acclimation using both plant survival analysis and chlorophyll fluorescence measurements. Cold deacclimation resistance was shown to be independent from cold acclimation ability. Further, cold deacclimation resistance appeared to be crucial for overwintering when deacclimation conditions occurred in the field. The shortening of uninterrupted cold acclimation may increase cold deacclimation efficiency, which could threaten plant survival during warmer winters. Measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence transient showed some differences triggered by freezing before and after deacclimation. We conclude that cold deacclimation resistance should be considered in the breeding of winter cereals and in future models of winter damage risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhanced growth of Juniperus thurifera under a warmer climate is explained by a positive carbon gain under cold and drought.

PubMed

Gimeno, Teresa E; Camarero, J Julio; Granda, Elena; Pías, Beatriz; Valladares, Fernando

2012-03-01

Juniperus thurifera L. is an endemic conifer of the western Mediterranean Basin where it is subjected to a severe climatic stress characterized by low winter temperatures and summer drought. Given the trend of increased warming-induced drought stress in this area and the climatic sensitivity of this species, we expect a negative impact of climate change on growth and ecophysiological performance of J. thurifera in the harsh environments where it dominates. To evaluate this, we measured long- and short-term radial growth using dendrochronology, photosynthesis and water-use efficiency in males, females and juveniles in three sites in Central Spain. Climate was monitored and completed with historical records. Mean annual temperature has increased +0.2 °C per decade in the study area, and the main warming trends corresponded to spring (+0.2 °C per decade) and summer (+0.3 °C per decade). Radial growth and maximum photosynthesis peaked in spring and autumn. Positive photosynthetic rates were maintained all year long, albeit at reduced rates in winter and summer. Radial growth was enhanced by wet conditions in the previous autumn and by warm springs and high precipitation in summer of the year of tree-ring formation. Cloud cover during the summer increased growth, while cloudy winters led to impaired carbon gain and reduced growth in the long term. We argue that maintenance of carbon gain under harsh conditions (low winter temperatures and dry summer months) and plastic xylogenesis underlie J. thurifera's ability to profit from changing climatic conditions such as earlier spring onset and erratic summer rainfall. Our results highlight that not only the magnitude but also the sign of the impact of climate change on growth and persistence of Mediterranean trees is species specific.

Regional Climate and Streamflow Projections in North America Under IPCC CMIP5 Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, H. I.; Castro, C. L.; Troch, P. A. A.; Mukherjee, R.

2014-12-01

The Colorado River system is the predominant source of water supply for the Southwest U.S. and is already fully allocated, making the region's environmental and economic health particularly sensitive to annual and multi-year streamflow variability. Observed streamflow declines in the Colorado Basin in recent years are likely due to synergistic combination of anthropogenic global warming and natural climate variability, which are creating an overall warmer and more extreme climate. IPCC assessment reports have projected warmer and drier conditions in arid to semi-arid regions (e.g. Solomon et al. 2007). The NAM-related precipitation contributes to substantial Colorado streamflows. Recent climate change studies for the Southwest U.S. region project a dire future, with chronic drought, and substantially reduced Colorado River flows. These regional effects reflect the general observation that climate is being more extreme globally, with areas climatologically favored to be wet getting wetter and areas favored to be dry getting drier (Wang et al. 2012). Multi-scale downscaling modeling experiments are designed using recent IPCC AR5 global climate projections, which incorporate regional climate and hydrologic modeling components. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has been selected as the main regional modeling tool; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) will be used to generate streamflow projections for the Colorado River Basin. The WRF domain is set up to follow the CORDEX-North America guideline with 25km grid spacing, and VIC model is individually calibrated for upper and lower Colorado River basins in 1/8° resolution. The multi-scale climate and hydrology study aims to characterize how the combination of climate change and natural climate variability is changing cool and warm season precipitation. Further, to preserve the downscaled RCM sensitivity and maintain a reasonable climatology mean based on observed record, a new bias correction

Relationship between ethical work climate and nurses' perception of organizational support, commitment, job satisfaction and turnover intent.

PubMed

Abou Hashish, Ebtsam Aly

2017-03-01

Healthcare organizations are now challenged to retain nurses' generation and understand why they are leaving their nursing career prematurely. Acquiring knowledge about the effect of ethical work climate and level of perceived organizational support can help organizational leaders to deal effectively with dysfunctional behaviors and make a difference in enhancing nurses' dedication, commitment, satisfaction, and loyalty to their organization. This study aims to determine the relationship between ethical work climate, and perceived organizational support and nurses' organizational commitment, job satisfaction, and turnover intention. A descriptive correlational research design was conducted in all inpatient care units at three major hospitals affiliated to different health sectors at Alexandria governorate. All nurses working in these previous hospitals were included in the study (N = 500). Ethical Climate Questionnaire, Survey of Perceived Organizational Support, Organizational Commitment Questionnaire, Index of Job Satisfaction, and Intention to Turnover scale were used to measure study variables. Ethical considerations: Approval was obtained from Ethics Committee at Faculty of Nursing, Alexandria University. Privacy and confidentiality of data were maintained and assured by obtaining subjects' informed consent to participate in the research before data collection. The result revealed positive significant correlations between nurses' perception of overall ethical work climate and each of perceived organizational support, commitment, as well as their job satisfaction. However, negative significant correlations were found between nurses' turnover intention and each of these variables. Also, approximately 33% of the explained variance of turnover intention is accounted by ethical work climate, organizational support, organizational commitment, and job satisfaction, and these variables independently contributed significantly in the prediction of turnover intention

The neotropical shrub Lupinus elegans, fromtemperate forests, may not adapt to climate change.

PubMed

Soto-Correa, J C; Sáenz-Romero, C; Lindig-Cisneros, R; de la Barrera, E

2013-05-01

Considering that their distribution is limited to altitudinal gradients along mountains that are likely to become warmer and drier, climate change poses an increased threat to temperate forest species from tropical regions. We studied whether the understorey shrub Lupinus elegans, endemic to temperate forests of west-central Mexico, will be able to withstand the projected temperature increase under seven climate change scenarios. Seeds were collected along an altitudinal gradient and grown in a shade-house over 7 months before determining their temperature tolerance as electrolyte leakage. The plants from colder sites tolerated lower temperatures, i.e. the temperature at which half of the maximum electrolyte leakage occurred (LT50), ranged from −6.4 ± 0.7 to −2.4 ± 0.3 °C. In contrast, no pattern was found for tolerance to high temperature (LT50 average 42.8 ± 0.3 °C). The climate change scenarios considered here consistently estimated an increase in air temperature during the present century that was higher for the maximum air temperature than for the mean or minimum. In particular, the anomaly from the normal maximum air temperature at the study region ranged from 2.8 °C by 2030 to 5.8 °C by 2090. In this respect, the inability of L. elegans to adapt to increasingly higher temperatures found here, in addition to a possible inhibition of reproduction caused by warmer winters, may limit its future distribution.

Psychosocial safety climate, emotional exhaustion, and work injuries in healthcare workplaces.

PubMed

Zadow, Amy Jane; Dollard, Maureen Frances; Mclinton, Sarven Savia; Lawrence, Peter; Tuckey, Michelle Rae

2017-12-01

Preventing work injuries requires a clear understanding of how they occur, how they are recorded, and the accuracy of injury surveillance. Our innovation was to examine how psychosocial safety climate (PSC) influences the development of reported and unreported physical and psychological workplace injuries beyond (physical) safety climate, via the erosion of psychological health (emotional exhaustion). Self-report data (T2, 2013) from 214 hospital employees (18 teams) were linked at the team level to the hospital workplace injury register (T1, 2012; T2, 2013; and T3, 2014). Concordance between survey-reported and registered injury rates was low (36%), indicating that many injuries go unreported. Safety climate was the strongest predictor of T2 registered injury rates (controlling for T1); PSC and emotional exhaustion also played a role. Emotional exhaustion was the strongest predictor of survey-reported total injuries and underreporting. Multilevel analysis showed that low PSC, emanating from senior managers and transmitted through teams, was the origin of psychological health erosion (i.e., low emotional exhaustion), which culminated in greater self-reported work injuries and injury underreporting (both physical and psychological). These results underscore the need to consider, in theory and practice, a dual physical-psychosocial safety explanation of injury events and a psychosocial explanation of injury underreporting. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Weather it's Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bostrom, A.; Lashof, D.

2004-12-01

For almost two decades both national polls and in-depth studies of global warming perceptions have shown that people commonly conflate weather and global climate change. Not only are current weather events such as anecdotal heat waves, droughts or cold spells treated as evidence for or against global warming, but weather changes such as warmer weather and increased storm intensity and frequency are the consequences most likely to come to mind. Distinguishing weather from climate remains a challenge for many. This weather 'framing' of global warming may inhibit behavioral and policy change in several ways. Weather is understood as natural, on an immense scale that makes controlling it difficult to conceive. Further, these attributes contribute to perceptions that global warming, like weather, is uncontrollable. This talk presents an analysis of data from public opinion polls, focus groups, and cognitive studies regarding people's mental models of and 'frames' for global warming and climate change, and the role weather plays in these. This research suggests that priming people with a model of global warming as being caused by a "thickening blanket of carbon dioxide" that "traps heat" in the atmosphere solves some of these communications problems and makes it more likely that people will support policies to address global warming.

The American Meteorological Society and Second Nature: Working Together to Increase Climate Literacy at Minority Serving Institutions Nationwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, J. A.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Kauffman, C.; Nugnes, K. A.; Naik, A.

2013-12-01

To raise climate literacy, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) developed AMS Climate Studies, an innovative, undergraduate-level climate science course. With a focus on real-world climate data, the course is a primer for responsible, scientifically-literate participation in the discussion of climate change. Designed to be adaptable to traditional, hybrid, or online instructional settings, AMS Climate Studies has already been adopted by more than 80 institutions since fall 2010. Course materials include a hardcover textbook, an investigations manual, and an online lab component, Current Climate Studies, which is created weekly throughout the semester utilizing resources from the IPCC, the US Global Change Research Program, NASA, and NOAA. AMS Climate Studies is mutually beneficial because AMS enhances coursework with real-world data while NASA, NOAA, and other government agencies reach a much larger audience with the results of their work. With support from NSF and NASA and in partnership with Second Nature, AMS offers the AMS Climate Studies Diversity Project with the goal of training 100 minority-serving institution (MSI) faculty members to implement the climate course on their campus. The Diversity Project consists of an expenses-paid weeklong workshop for MSI faculty members and a follow-up workshop at the next year's AMS Annual Meeting. The initial workshop covers fundamental understandings within AMS Climate Studies and implementation procedures. Highlights of this workshop are presentations from NOAA, NASA, and other government and university climate scientists as well as field trips to science laboratories. In the year following workshop attendance, faculty work within their MSI to implement AMS Climate Studies. Participants are then invited to a second workshop at the AMS Annual Meeting to report back the results of their work. Currently in its second year, the Project has trained 50 MSI faculty members with subsequent workshops to be held throughout

Responses of stream nitrate and DOC loadings to hydrological forcing and climate change in an upland forest of the northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sebestyen, Stephen D.; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Shanley, James B.

2009-06-01

In coming decades, higher annual temperatures, increased growing season length, and increased dormant season precipitation are expected across the northeastern United States in response to anthropogenic forcing of global climate. We synthesized long-term stream hydrochemical data from the Sleepers River Research Watershed in Vermont, United States, to explore the relationship of catchment wetness to stream nitrate and DOC loadings. We modeled changes in growing season length and precipitation patterns to simulate future climate scenarios and to assess how stream nutrient loadings respond to climate change. Model results for the 2070-2099 time period suggest that stream nutrient loadings during both the dormant and growing seasons will respond to climate change. During a warmer climate, growing season stream fluxes (runoff +20%, nitrate +57%, and DOC +58%) increase as more precipitation (+28%) and quick flow (+39%) occur during a longer growing season (+43 days). During the dormant season, stream water and nutrient loadings decrease. Net annual stream runoff (+8%) and DOC loading (+9%) increases are commensurate with the magnitude of the average increase of net annual precipitation (+7%). Net annual stream water and DOC loadings are primarily affected by increased dormant season precipitation. In contrast, decreased annual loading of stream nitrate (-2%) reflects a larger effect of growing season controls on stream nitrate and the effects of lengthened growing seasons in a warmer climate. Our findings suggest that leaching of nitrate and DOC from catchment soils will be affected by anthropogenic climate forcing, thereby affecting the timing and magnitude of annual stream loadings in the northeastern United States.

When the Well Runs Dry: Climate Change, Water and Human Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbus, J. M.

2014-12-01

Water is a critical pathway between changes in climate and impacts on human health. Increased intensity of the hydrologic cycle can impair water quality through both drought and runoff associated with extreme precipitation events. Local changes or extremes in hydrological cycles can also alter the life cycles of moquitoes, ticks, snails, and other carriers of human diseases. These impacts in turn can affect the transmission of malaria, schistosomiasis, and many other human diseases. Warmer freshwater and coastal waters, in combination with other factors like fertilizer runoff and salinity, are also associated with proliferation of a variety of human pathogens, including cyanobacteria and vibrio species. This presentation will highlight the many linkages between climate change, water and human health. It will review recent findings of the US National Climate Assessment and 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC with regards to water-related threats to health, and discuss approaches to modeling health outcomes of water-associated climate change impacts.

Habitat associations of species show consistent but weak responses to climate

PubMed Central

Suggitt, Andrew J.; Stefanescu, Constantí; Páramo, Ferran; Oliver, Tom; Anderson, Barbara J.; Hill, Jane K.; Roy, David B.; Brereton, Tom; Thomas, Chris D.

2012-01-01

Different vegetation types can generate variation in microclimates at local scales, potentially buffering species from adverse climates. To determine if species could respond to such microclimates under climatic warming, we evaluated whether ectothermic species (butterflies) can exploit favourable microclimates and alter their use of different habitats in response to year-to-year variation in climate. In both relatively cold (Britain) and warm (Catalonia) regions of their geographical ranges, most species shifted into cooler, closed habitats (e.g. woodland) in hot years, and into warmer, open habitats (e.g. grassland) in cooler years. Additionally, three-quarters of species occurred in closed habitats more frequently in the warm region than in the cool region. Thus, species shift their local distributions and alter their habitat associations to exploit favourable microclimates, although the magnitude of the shift (approx. 1.3% of individuals from open to shade, per degree Celsius) is unlikely to buffer species from impacts of regional climate warming. PMID:22491762

Climate Driven Life Histories: The Case of the Mediterranean Storm Petrel

PubMed Central

Soldatini, Cecilia; Albores-Barajas, Yuri Vladimir; Massa, Bruno; Gimenez, Olivier

2014-01-01

Seabirds are affected by changes in the marine ecosystem. The influence of climatic factors on marine food webs can be reflected in long-term seabird population changes. We modelled the survival and recruitment of the Mediterranean storm petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis) using a 21-year mark-recapture dataset involving almost 5000 birds. We demonstrated a strong influence of prebreeding climatic conditions on recruitment age and of rainfall and breeding period conditions on juvenile survival. The results suggest that the juvenile survival rate of the Mediterranean subspecies may not be negatively affected by the predicted features of climate change, i.e., warmer summers and lower rainfall. Based on considerations of winter conditions in different parts of the Mediterranean, we were able to draw inferences about the wintering areas of the species for the first time. PMID:24728099

Legacy introductions and climatic variation explain spatiotemporal patterns of invasive hybridization in a native trout.

PubMed

Muhlfeld, Clint C; Kovach, Ryan P; Al-Chokhachy, Robert; Amish, Stephen J; Kershner, Jeffrey L; Leary, Robb F; Lowe, Winsor H; Luikart, Gordon; Matson, Phil; Schmetterling, David A; Shepard, Bradley B; Westley, Peter A H; Whited, Diane; Whiteley, Andrew; Allendorf, Fred W

2017-11-01

Hybridization between invasive and native species, a significant threat to worldwide biodiversity, is predicted to increase due to climate-induced expansions of invasive species. Long-term research and monitoring are crucial for understanding the ecological and evolutionary processes that modulate the effects of invasive species. Using a large, multidecade genetics dataset (N = 582 sites, 12,878 individuals) with high-resolution climate predictions and extensive stocking records, we evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of hybridization between native cutthroat trout and invasive rainbow trout, the world's most widely introduced invasive fish, across the Northern Rocky Mountains of the United States. Historical effects of stocking and contemporary patterns of climatic variation were strongly related to the spread of hybridization across space and time. The probability of occurrence, extent of, and temporal changes in hybridization increased at sites in close proximity to historical stocking locations with greater rainbow trout propagule pressure, warmer water temperatures, and lower spring precipitation. Although locations with warmer water temperatures were more prone to hybridization, cold sites were not protected from invasion; 58% of hybridized sites had cold mean summer water temperatures (<11°C). Despite cessation of stocking over 40 years ago, hybridization increased over time at half (50%) of the locations with long-term data, the vast majority of which (74%) were initially nonhybridized, emphasizing the chronic, negative impacts of human-mediated hybridization. These results show that effects of climate change on biodiversity must be analyzed in the context of historical human impacts that set ecological and evolutionary trajectories. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Legacy introductions and climatic variation explain spatiotemporal patterns of invasive hybridization in a native trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Kovach, Ryan P.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Amish, Stephen J.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Leary, Robb F.; Lowe, Winsor H.; Luikart, Gordon; Matson, Phil; Schmetterling, David A.; Shepard, Bradley B.; Westley, Peter A. H.; Whited, Diane; Whiteley, Andrew R.; Allendorf, Fred W.

2017-01-01

Hybridization between invasive and native species, a significant threat to worldwide biodiversity, is predicted to increase due to climate-induced expansions of invasive species. Long-term research and monitoring are crucial for understanding the ecological and evolutionary processes that modulate the effects of invasive species. Using a large, multi-decade genetics dataset (N = 582 sites, 12,878 individuals) with high-resolution climate predictions and extensive stocking records, we evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of hybridization between native cutthroat trout and invasive rainbow trout, the world’s most widely introduced invasive fish, across the northern Rocky Mountains of the United States. Historical effects of stocking and contemporary patterns of climatic variation were strongly related to the spread of hybridization across space and time. The probability of occurrence, extent of, and temporal changes in hybridization increased at sites in close proximity to historical stocking locations with greater rainbow trout propagule pressure, warmer water temperatures, and lower spring precipitation. Although locations with warmer water temperatures were more prone to hybridization, cold sites were not protected from invasion; 58% of hybridized sites had cold mean summer water temperatures (<11°C). Despite cessation of stocking over 40 years ago, hybridization increased over time at half (50%) of the locations with long-term data, the vast majority of which (74%) were initially non-hybridized, emphasizing the chronic, negative impacts of human-mediated hybridization. These results show that effects of climate change on biodiversity must be analyzed in the context of historical human impacts that set ecological and evolutionary trajectories.

Chikungunya, climate change, and human rights.

PubMed

Meason, Braden; Paterson, Ryan

2014-06-14

Chikungunya is a re-emerging arbovirus that causes significant morbidity and some mortality. Global climate change leading to warmer temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns allow mosquito vectors to thrive at altitudes and at locations where they previously have not, ultimately leading to a spread of mosquito-borne diseases. While mutations to the chikungunya virus are responsible for some portion of the re-emergence, chikungunya epidemiology is closely tied with weather patterns in Southeast Asia. Extrapolation of this regional pattern, combined with known climate factors impacting the spread of malaria and dengue, summate to a dark picture of climate change and the spread of this disease from south Asia and Africa into Europe and North America. This review describes chikungunya and collates current data regarding its spread in which climate change plays an important part. We also examine human rights obligations of States and others to protect against this disease. Copyright © 2014 Meason, Paterson. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Science You Can Use Bulletin: Climate change, crowd-sourcing, and conserving aquatic biotas in the Rocky Mountains this century

Treesearch

Sarah Hines; Dan Isaak; Charles Luce; Michael K. Young

2014-01-01

Climate change is causing rapid changes to stream habitats across the Rocky Mountains and Pacific Northwest as warmer air temperatures and changes in precipitation increase stream temperatures, alter stream hydrology, and increase the extent and magnitude of natural disturbances related to droughts and wildfires. These changes are affecting trout, salmon, and other...

Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tan, Ivy; Storelvmo, Trude; Zelinka, Mark D.

Global climate model (GCM) estimates of the equilibrium global mean surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2, measured by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), range from 2.0° to 4.6°C. Clouds are among the leading causes of this uncertainty. Here, in this paper, we show that the ECS can be up to 1.3°C higher in simulations where mixed-phase clouds consisting of ice crystals and supercooled liquid droplets are constrained by global satellite observations. The higher ECS estimates are directly linked to a weakened cloud-phase feedback arising from a decreased cloud glaciation rate in a warmer climate. Finally, wemore » point out the need for realistic representations of the supercooled liquid fraction in mixed-phase clouds in GCMs, given the sensitivity of the ECS to the cloud-phase feedback.« less

Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity

DOE PAGES

Tan, Ivy; Storelvmo, Trude; Zelinka, Mark D.

2016-04-08

Global climate model (GCM) estimates of the equilibrium global mean surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2, measured by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), range from 2.0° to 4.6°C. Clouds are among the leading causes of this uncertainty. Here, in this paper, we show that the ECS can be up to 1.3°C higher in simulations where mixed-phase clouds consisting of ice crystals and supercooled liquid droplets are constrained by global satellite observations. The higher ECS estimates are directly linked to a weakened cloud-phase feedback arising from a decreased cloud glaciation rate in a warmer climate. Finally, wemore » point out the need for realistic representations of the supercooled liquid fraction in mixed-phase clouds in GCMs, given the sensitivity of the ECS to the cloud-phase feedback.« less

Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity.

PubMed

Tan, Ivy; Storelvmo, Trude; Zelinka, Mark D

2016-04-08

Global climate model (GCM) estimates of the equilibrium global mean surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, measured by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), range from 2.0° to 4.6°C. Clouds are among the leading causes of this uncertainty. Here we show that the ECS can be up to 1.3°C higher in simulations where mixed-phase clouds consisting of ice crystals and supercooled liquid droplets are constrained by global satellite observations. The higher ECS estimates are directly linked to a weakened cloud-phase feedback arising from a decreased cloud glaciation rate in a warmer climate. We point out the need for realistic representations of the supercooled liquid fraction in mixed-phase clouds in GCMs, given the sensitivity of the ECS to the cloud-phase feedback. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Hydrological risks of a 2.0 oC warmer world: Assessing infrastructure exposure to the Paris Agreement.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paltan, H.; Allen, M. R.; Haustein, K.; Dadson, S. J.

2017-12-01

The Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) in its Paris Agreement in December 2015 agreed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2.0 °C above pre- industrial levels. Nonetheless it is not yet clear how hydrological risks would change when this threshold is reached. In consequence, this may have important repercussions to existent or planned infrastructure as their functioning and the service they provide may be undermined if they do not adapt to shifts in water variability and, thus compromising global water security. In this study, we estimate the way in which hydrological risks will differ in a world 2 °C warmer. We used multi-ensembles outputs from 4 general circulation models (AOGCMs) participating in the HAPPI experimental protocol to generate global future river flows. From here we calculate extreme value probabilistics to calculate the increase in the frequency of the 100-year return period flow. Globally, we find that areas such as China and South Asia will be severly affecteed. Additional important changes are detected in Eastern Europe and in the area sorrounding the Gulf of California. Lastly, as a case study we show the implications of this climate target in the hydropower and transport infrastructure of Myanmar. We find that about 40% of mapped hydropower sites are in areas where the historical 100-year return period flow will significantly increase their frequency. We also find that about 30% of the roads and about 35% of the rail network of Myanmar are importantly exposed to such increases. We expect that this study is an initial step to analyse the propagation of hydrological risk associated with the Paris outcome; and thus, offer a tool to detect vulnerable population groups and economic sectors.

75 FR 1380 - National Drinking Water Advisory Council's Climate Ready Water Utilities Working Group Meeting...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-11

... Ready Water Utilities Working Group Meeting Announcement AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency. ACTION... meeting of the Climate Ready Water Utilities (CRWU) Working Group of the National Drinking Water Advisory Council (NDWAC). The purpose of this meeting is for the Working Group to discuss the attributes and...

Extreme Temperatures over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thanigachalam, A.; Achutarao, K. M.

2017-12-01

n the summer of 2015 a heat wave claimed more than 2500 lives of southeastern India. Wehner et al., (2016) showed that the risk of this heat wave has increased due to anthropogenic forcings. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, surface temperature over India shows a rate of increase of about 0.2°C/decade during the 21st Century (Basha et al., 2017). The extreme temperatures that have occurred in the recent past and further increases projected for the future have implications for human health and productivity. In light of the Paris accords, future stabilization of global mean temperature at the 1.5°C above pre-industrial aspirational target and the "not to be exceeded" 2°C target (still higher than current temperatures), the possibility of increases in extreme temperatures under these scenarios is very real. In this study we seek to understand the nature of extreme temperatures over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C worlds in comparison to the current climate. We make use of model output contributed under the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project (HAPPI; Mitchell et al., 2017). The HAPPI database contains output from many atmospheric GCMs with multiple simulations ( 100 each) of historical (2005-2015), 1.5°C warmer decade, and 2°C warmer decade. The large number of ensembles provides an opportunity to study the extremes in temperature that occur over India and how they may change. In order to provide insights into the future comparable against current operational practices, we make use of definitions of "hot days", "heat waves", and "severe heat waves" used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). We compare modelled data (and bias corrected model output where available) against observed daily temperatures from the IMD gridded (1°x1°) dataset available for 1951-2015 as also circulation features that lead to such events by comparing against reanalysis products. We also investigate the timing of such events in the future scenarios

Fire-induced erosion and millennial-scale climate change in northern ponderosa pine forests.

PubMed

Pierce, Jennifer L; Meyer, Grant A; Jull, A J Timothy

2004-11-04

Western US ponderosa pine forests have recently suffered extensive stand-replacing fires followed by hillslope erosion and sedimentation. These fires are usually attributed to increased stand density as a result of fire suppression, grazing and other land use, and are often considered uncharacteristic or unprecedented. Tree-ring records from the past 500 years indicate that before Euro-American settlement, frequent, low-severity fires maintained open stands. However, the pre-settlement period between about ad 1500 and ad 1900 was also generally colder than present, raising the possibility that rapid twentieth-century warming promoted recent catastrophic fires. Here we date fire-related sediment deposits in alluvial fans in central Idaho to reconstruct Holocene fire history in xeric ponderosa pine forests and examine links to climate. We find that colder periods experienced frequent low-severity fires, probably fuelled by increased understory growth. Warmer periods experienced severe droughts, stand-replacing fires and large debris-flow events that comprise a large component of long-term erosion and coincide with similar events in sub-alpine forests of Yellowstone National Park. Our results suggest that given the powerful influence of climate, restoration of processes typical of pre-settlement times may be difficult in a warmer future that promotes severe fires.

Responses of stream nitrate and dissolved organic carbon loadings to hydrological forcing and climate change in an upland forest of the northeast USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sebestyen, Stephen D.; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Shanley, James B.

2009-01-01

[1] In coming decades, higher annual temperatures, increased growing season length, and increased dormant season precipitation are expected across the northeastern United States in response to anthropogenic forcing of global climate. We synthesized long-term stream hydrochemical data from the Sleepers River Research Watershed in Vermont, United States, to explore the relationship of catchment wetness to stream nitrate and DOC loadings. We modeled changes in growing season length and precipitation patterns to simulate future climate scenarios and to assess how stream nutrient loadings respond to climate change. Model results for the 2070–2099 time period suggest that stream nutrient loadings during both the dormant and growing seasons will respond to climate change. During a warmer climate, growing season stream fluxes (runoff +20%, nitrate +57%, and DOC +58%) increase as more precipitation (+28%) and quick flow (+39%) occur during a longer growing season (+43 days). During the dormant season, stream water and nutrient loadings decrease. Net annual stream runoff (+8%) and DOC loading (+9%) increases are commensurate with the magnitude of the average increase of net annual precipitation (+7%). Net annual stream water and DOC loadings are primarily affected by increased dormant season precipitation. In contrast, decreased annual loading of stream nitrate (−2%) reflects a larger effect of growing season controls on stream nitrate and the effects of lengthened growing seasons in a warmer climate. Our findings suggest that leaching of nitrate and DOC from catchment soils will be affected by anthropogenic climate forcing, thereby affecting the timing and magnitude of annual stream loadings in the northeastern United States.

Climate Change Impacts to North Pacific Pelagic Habitat Are Projected to Lower Carrying Capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodworth-Jefcoats, P. A.; Polovina, J. J.; Drazen, J.

2016-02-01

We use output from a suite of CMIP5 earth system models to explore the impacts of climate change on marine fisheries over the 21st century. Ocean temperatures from both the historical and RCP 8.5 projections are integrated over the upper 200 m of the water column to characterize thermal habitat in the epipelagic realm. We find that across all models the projected temperature increases lead to a redistribution of thermal habitat: temperatures that currently represent the majority of North Pacific pelagic habitat are replaced by temperatures several degrees warmer. Additionally, all models project the emergence of new thermal habitat that exceeds present-day maximum temperatures. Spatially, present-day thermal habitat retreats northward and contracts eastward as warmer habitat in the southern and western North Pacific expands. In addition to these changes in thermal habitat, zooplankton densities are projected to decline across much of the North Pacific. Taken together, warming temperatures and declining zooplankton densities create the potential for mismatches in metabolic demand and supply through the 21st century. We find that carrying capacity for tropical tunas and other commercially valuable pelagic fish may be especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The waters projected to see the greatest redistribution of thermal habitat and greatest declines in zooplankton densities are primarily those targeted by the Hawaii-based and international longline fleets. Fishery managers around the North Pacific will need to incorporate these impacts of climate change into future management strategies.

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on air pollution-related health effects in the United States.

PubMed Central

Bernard, S M; Samet, J M; Grambsch, A; Ebi, K L; Romieu, I

2001-01-01

Climate change may affect exposures to air pollutants by affecting weather, anthropogenic emissions, and biogenic emissions and by changing the distribution and types of airborne allergens. Local temperature, precipitation, clouds, atmospheric water vapor, wind speed, and wind direction influence atmospheric chemical processes, and interactions occur between local and global-scale environments. If the climate becomes warmer and more variable, air quality is likely to be affected. However, the specific types of change (i.e., local, regional, or global), the direction of change in a particular location (i.e., positive or negative), and the magnitude of change in air quality that may be attributable to climate change are a matter of speculation, based on extrapolating present understanding to future scenarios. There is already extensive evidence on the health effects of air pollution. Ground-level ozone can exacerbate chronic respiratory diseases and cause short-term reductions in lung function. Exposure to particulate matter can aggravate chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, alter host defenses, damage lung tissue, lead to premature death, and possibly contribute to cancer. Health effects of exposures to carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide can include reduced work capacity, aggravation of existing cardiovascular diseases, effects on pulmonary function, respiratory illnesses, lung irritation, and alterations in the lung's defense systems. Adaptations to climate change should include ensuring responsiveness of air quality protection programs to changing pollution levels. Research needs include basic atmospheric science work on the association between weather and air pollutants; improving air pollution models and their linkage with climate change scenarios; and closing gaps in the understanding of exposure patterns and health effects. PMID:11359687

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on air pollution-related health effects in the United States.

PubMed

Bernard, S M; Samet, J M; Grambsch, A; Ebi, K L; Romieu, I

2001-05-01

Climate change may affect exposures to air pollutants by affecting weather, anthropogenic emissions, and biogenic emissions and by changing the distribution and types of airborne allergens. Local temperature, precipitation, clouds, atmospheric water vapor, wind speed, and wind direction influence atmospheric chemical processes, and interactions occur between local and global-scale environments. If the climate becomes warmer and more variable, air quality is likely to be affected. However, the specific types of change (i.e., local, regional, or global), the direction of change in a particular location (i.e., positive or negative), and the magnitude of change in air quality that may be attributable to climate change are a matter of speculation, based on extrapolating present understanding to future scenarios. There is already extensive evidence on the health effects of air pollution. Ground-level ozone can exacerbate chronic respiratory diseases and cause short-term reductions in lung function. Exposure to particulate matter can aggravate chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, alter host defenses, damage lung tissue, lead to premature death, and possibly contribute to cancer. Health effects of exposures to carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide can include reduced work capacity, aggravation of existing cardiovascular diseases, effects on pulmonary function, respiratory illnesses, lung irritation, and alterations in the lung's defense systems. Adaptations to climate change should include ensuring responsiveness of air quality protection programs to changing pollution levels. Research needs include basic atmospheric science work on the association between weather and air pollutants; improving air pollution models and their linkage with climate change scenarios; and closing gaps in the understanding of exposure patterns and health effects.

Accidental overheating of a newborn under an infant radiant warmer: a lesson for future use.

PubMed

Molgat-Seon, Y; Daboval, T; Chou, S; Jay, O

2013-09-01

A fully functional radiant warmer induced rapid and continuous increases in regional skin temperatures, heart rate, mean arterial blood pressure and respiratory rate in a newborn patient without corrective action. We report this case of passive overheating to create awareness of the risks associated with regulating radiant heat output based upon a single servo-controlled temperature.

Substantial large-scale feedbacks between natural aerosols and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, C. E.; Arnold, S. R.; Monks, S. A.; Asmi, A.; Paasonen, P.; Spracklen, D. V.

2018-01-01

The terrestrial biosphere is an important source of natural aerosol. Natural aerosol sources alter climate, but are also strongly controlled by climate, leading to the potential for natural aerosol-climate feedbacks. Here we use a global aerosol model to make an assessment of terrestrial natural aerosol-climate feedbacks, constrained by observations of aerosol number. We find that warmer-than-average temperatures are associated with higher-than-average number concentrations of large (>100 nm diameter) particles, particularly during the summer. This relationship is well reproduced by the model and is driven by both meteorological variability and variability in natural aerosol from biogenic and landscape fire sources. We find that the calculated extratropical annual mean aerosol radiative effect (both direct and indirect) is negatively related to the observed global temperature anomaly, and is driven by a positive relationship between temperature and the emission of natural aerosol. The extratropical aerosol-climate feedback is estimated to be -0.14 W m-2 K-1 for landscape fire aerosol, greater than the -0.03 W m-2 K-1 estimated for biogenic secondary organic aerosol. These feedbacks are comparable in magnitude to other biogeochemical feedbacks, highlighting the need for natural aerosol feedbacks to be included in climate simulations.

Informing climate change adaptation with insights from famine early warning (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.

2010-12-01

Famine early warning systems provide a unique viewpoint for understanding the implications of climate change on food security, identifying the locations and seasons where millions of food insecure people are dependent upon climate-sensitive agricultural systems. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is a decision support system sponsored by the Office of Food for Peace of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which distributes over two billion dollars of food aid to more than 40 countries each year. FEWS NET identifies the times and places where food aid is required by the most climatically sensitive and consequently food insecure populations of the developing world. As result, FEWS NET has developed its own "climate service", implemented by USGS, NOAA, and NASA, to support its decision making processes. The foundation of this climate service is the monitoring of current growing conditions for early identification of agricultural drought that might impact food security. Since station networks are sparse in the countries monitored, FEWS NET has a tradition (dating back to 1985) of reliance on satellite remote sensing of vegetation and rainfall. In the last ten years, climate forecasts have become an additional tool for food security assessment, extending the early warning perspective to include expected agricultural outcomes for the season ahead. More recently, research has expanded to include detailed analyses of recent observed climate trends, combined with diagnostic ocean-atmosphere studies. These studies are then used to develop interpretations of GCM scenarios and their implications for future patterns of precipitation and temperature, revealing trends towards warmer/drier climate conditions and increases in the relative frequency of drought. In some regions, like Eastern Africa, such changes seem to be already occurring, with an associated increase in food insecurity. Sub-national analyses for Kenya, for example, point to the

Range and niche shifts in response to past climate change in the desert horned lizard (Phrynosoma platyrhinos)

PubMed Central

Jezkova, Tereza; Jaeger, Jef R.; Oláh-Hemmings, Viktória; Jones, K. Bruce; Lara-Resendiz, Rafael A.; Mulcahy, Daniel G.; Riddle, Brett R.

2015-01-01

During climate change, species are often assumed to shift their geographic distributions (geographic ranges) in order to track environmental conditions – niches – to which they are adapted. Recent work, however, suggests that the niches do not always remain conserved during climate change but shift instead, allowing populations to persist in place or expand into new areas. We assessed the extent of range and niche shifts in response to the warming climate after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the desert horned lizard (Phrynosoma platyrhinos), a species occupying the western deserts of North America. We used a phylogeographic approach with mitochondrial DNA sequences to approximate the species range during the LGM by identifying populations that exhibit a genetic signal of population stability versus those that exhibit a signal of a recent (likely post-LGM) geographic expansion. We then compared the climatic niche that the species occupies today with the niche it occupied during the LGM using two models of simulated LGM climate. The genetic analyses indicated that P. platyrhinos persisted within the southern Mojave and Sonoran deserts throughout the latest glacial period and expanded from these deserts northwards, into the western and eastern Great Basin, after the LGM. The climatic niche comparisons revealed that P. platyrhinos expanded its climatic niche after the LGM towards novel, warmer and drier climates that allowed it to persist within the southern deserts. Simultaneously, the species shifted its climatic niche towards greater temperature and precipitation fluctuations after the LGM. We concluded that climatic changes at the end of the LGM promoted both range and niche shifts in this lizard. The mechanism that allowed the species to shift its niche remains unknown, but phenotypic plasticity likely contributes to the species ability to adjust to climate change. PMID:27231410

Range and niche shifts in response to past climate change in the desert horned lizard (Phrynosoma platyrhinos).

PubMed

Jezkova, Tereza; Jaeger, Jef R; Oláh-Hemmings, Viktória; Jones, K Bruce; Lara-Resendiz, Rafael A; Mulcahy, Daniel G; Riddle, Brett R

2016-05-01

During climate change, species are often assumed to shift their geographic distributions (geographic ranges) in order to track environmental conditions - niches - to which they are adapted. Recent work, however, suggests that the niches do not always remain conserved during climate change but shift instead, allowing populations to persist in place or expand into new areas. We assessed the extent of range and niche shifts in response to the warming climate after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the desert horned lizard ( Phrynosoma platyrhinos ), a species occupying the western deserts of North America. We used a phylogeographic approach with mitochondrial DNA sequences to approximate the species range during the LGM by identifying populations that exhibit a genetic signal of population stability versus those that exhibit a signal of a recent (likely post-LGM) geographic expansion. We then compared the climatic niche that the species occupies today with the niche it occupied during the LGM using two models of simulated LGM climate. The genetic analyses indicated that P. platyrhinos persisted within the southern Mojave and Sonoran deserts throughout the latest glacial period and expanded from these deserts northwards, into the western and eastern Great Basin, after the LGM. The climatic niche comparisons revealed that P. platyrhinos expanded its climatic niche after the LGM towards novel, warmer and drier climates that allowed it to persist within the southern deserts. Simultaneously, the species shifted its climatic niche towards greater temperature and precipitation fluctuations after the LGM. We concluded that climatic changes at the end of the LGM promoted both range and niche shifts in this lizard. The mechanism that allowed the species to shift its niche remains unknown, but phenotypic plasticity likely contributes to the species ability to adjust to climate change.

75 FR 20352 - National Drinking Water Advisory Council's Climate Ready Water Utilities Working Group Meeting...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-19

... Ready Water Utilities Working Group Meeting Announcement AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency. ACTION...-person meeting of the Climate Ready Water Utilities (CRWU) Working Group of the National Drinking Water Advisory Council (NDWAC). The purpose of this meeting is for the Working Group to discuss key findings, the...

Examining the temporal relationship between psychological climate, work attitude, and staff turnover

PubMed Central

Garner, Bryan R.; Hunter, Brooke D.

2012-01-01

Relative to the broader industrial-organizational (I-O) psychology field, research on the turnover of substance use disorder (SUD) treatment staff is in its infancy. Despite its long and rich history, recent reviews of the turnover literature within I-O psychology have noted there remains considerable room for improvement. In particular, recommendations have been made for research that considers time in the turnover process and explores more distal causes of staff turnover. Addressing these gaps, this paper examined the temporal relationship between latent measures of psychological climate, work attitude, and staff turnover. Using data from 95 SUD treatment staff clustered within 29 treatment organizations, multilevel discrete-time survival analyses revealed that a latent measure of work attitude (e.g., job satisfaction, pay satisfaction, turnover intentions) fully mediated the temporal relationship between latent measures of psychological climate (e.g., supervisor support, coworker support, role conflict) and subsequent staff turnover. PMID:22658290

The impact of justice climate and justice orientation on work outcomes: a cross-level multifoci framework.

PubMed

Liao, Hui; Rupp, Deborah E

2005-03-01

In this article, which takes a person-situation approach, the authors propose and test a cross-level multifoci model of workplace justice. They crossed 3 types of justice (procedural, informational, and interpersonal) with 2 foci (organization and supervisor) and aggregated to the group level to create 6 distinct justice climate variables. They then tested for the effects of these variables on either organization-directed or supervisor-directed commitment, satisfaction, and citizenship behavior. The authors also tested justice orientation as a moderator of these relationships. The results, based on 231 employees constituting 44 work groups representing multiple organizations and occupations, revealed that 4 forms of justice climate (organization-focused procedural and informational justice climate and supervisor-focused procedural and interpersonal justice climate) were significantly related to various work outcomes after controlling for corresponding individual-level justice perceptions. In addition, some moderation effects were found. Implications for organizations and future research are discussed.

Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide

PubMed Central

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

2013-01-01

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1°C for a 4 W m−2 CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3–4°C for a 4 W m−2 CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change. PMID:24043864

Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

2013-01-01

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide.

PubMed

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

2013-10-28

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1(°)C for a 4 W m(-2) CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4(°)C for a 4 W m(-2) CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

Interpretation of snow-climate feedback as produced by 17 general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Zhang, M.-H.; Potter, G. L.; Blanchet, J.-P.; Chalita, S.; Colman, R.; Dazlich, D. A.; Del Genio, A. D.; Lacis, A. A.; Dymnikov, V.

1991-01-01

Snow feedback is expected to amplify global warming caused by increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The conventional explanation is that a warmer earth will have less snow cover, resulting in a darker planet that absorbs more solar radiation. An intercomparison of 17 general circulation models, for which perturbations of sea surface temperature were used as a surrogate climate change, suggests that this explanation is overly simplistic. The results instead indicate that additional amplification or moderation may be caused both by cloud interactions and longwave radiation. One measure of this net effect of snow feedback was found to differ markedly among the 17 climate models, ranging from weak negative feedback in some models to strong positive feedback in others.

Demonstrating Climate Change and the Water Cycle to Fifth Grade Students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, J. G.

2005-12-01

Scientists in academia often want to share their knowledge of and enthusiasm for science with K-12 students, but feel wary of the time commitment and logistical details involved with volunteer work. As a PhD student at UC Berkeley, I participated in the Community in the Classroom program, organized by the non-profit Community Resources for Science. CRS acts as the liaison between local schools and scientists in the community, taking care of all the administrative details regarding the classroom visits. Volunteers are asked to prepare a fun, hands-on presentation for a specific grade level, which is linked to elementary science standards. I chose to visit several fifth grade classrooms and talk about the connection between climate change and the water cycle in California. My presentation included a demonstration of the greenhouse effect, an experiment to see where the water on the outside of a cold glass comes from, and an investigation into the role of temperature in the phase changes of water, using plastic containers, icepacks and mitten warmers. The students were encouraged to make predictions about the impact of climate change on the water cycle based on their recent observations. I will share my demonstrations, discuss feedback from the students and teachers and offer suggestions to those interested in volunteer teaching.

US Power Production at Risk from Water Stress in a Changing Climate.

PubMed

Ganguli, Poulomi; Kumar, Devashish; Ganguly, Auroop R

2017-09-20

Thermoelectric power production in the United States primarily relies on wet-cooled plants, which in turn require water below prescribed design temperatures, both for cooling and operational efficiency. Thus, power production in US remains particularly vulnerable to water scarcity and rising stream temperatures under climate change and variability. Previous studies on the climate-water-energy nexus have primarily focused on mid- to end-century horizons and have not considered the full range of uncertainty in climate projections. Technology managers and energy policy makers are increasingly interested in the decadal time scales to understand adaptation challenges and investment strategies. Here we develop a new approach that relies on a novel multivariate water stress index, which considers the joint probability of warmer and scarcer water, and computes uncertainties arising from climate model imperfections and intrinsic variability. Our assessments over contiguous US suggest consistent increase in water stress for power production with about 27% of the production severely impacted by 2030s.

Exploring the sensitivity of soil carbon dynamics to climate change, fire disturbance and permafrost thaw in a black spruce ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnell, J. A.; Harden, J.W.; McGuire, A.D.; Romanovsky, V.E.

2011-01-01

In the boreal region, soil organic carbon (OC) dynamics are strongly governed by the interaction between wildfire and permafrost. Using a combination of field measurements, numerical modeling of soil thermal dynamics, and mass-balance modeling of OC dynamics, we tested the sensitivity of soil OC storage to a suite of individual climate factors (air temperature, soil moisture, and snow depth) and fire severity. We also conducted sensitivity analyses to explore the combined effects of fire-soil moisture interactions and snow seasonality on OC storage. OC losses were calculated as the difference in OC stocks after three fire cycles (???500 yr) following a prescribed step-change in climate and/or fire. Across single-factor scenarios, our findings indicate that warmer air temperatures resulted in the largest relative soil OC losses (???5.3 kg C mg-2), whereas dry soil conditions alone (in the absence of wildfire) resulted in the smallest carbon losses (???0.1 kg C mg-2). Increased fire severity resulted in carbon loss of ???3.3 kg C mg-2, whereas changes in snow depth resulted in smaller OC losses (2.1-2.2 kg C mg-2). Across multiple climate factors, we observed larger OC losses than for single-factor scenarios. For instance, high fire severity regime associated with warmer and drier conditions resulted in OC losses of ???6.1 kg C mg-2, whereas a low fire severity regime associated with warmer and wetter conditions resulted in OC losses of ???5.6 kg C mg-2. A longer snow-free season associated with future warming resulted in OC losses of ???5.4 kg C mg-2. Soil climate was the dominant control on soil OC loss, governing the sensitivity of microbial decomposers to fluctuations in temperature and soil moisture; this control, in turn, is governed by interannual changes in active layer depth. Transitional responses of the active layer depth to fire regimes also contributed to OC losses, primarily by determining the proportion of OC into frozen and unfrozen soil layers

The potential impacts of climate change induced changes to tropical leaf albedo and its feedback on global climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doughty, C.; Shenkin, A.; Bentley, L. P.; Malhi, Y.

2017-12-01

Tropical forest leaf albedo plays a critical role in global climate by determining how much radiation the planet absorbs near the equator. However, little is known about how tropical leaf albedo could be affected by climate change and how any such changes in albedo could, in turn, impact global climate. Here we measure sunlit leaf albedo along two elevation temperature gradients (a 3000-meter gradient in Peru (10 plots) and a 1500 m gradient in Australia (10 plots) and along two wet to dry transects (a 2000 mm yr-1 gradient in Ghana (10 plots) and a 2000 mm yr-1 gradient in Brazil (10 plots). We found a highly significant increase in visible leaf albedo with wetness at both wet to dry gradients. We also found a marginally significant trend of increased albedo with warmer temperatures along one of the elevation gradients. Leaf albedo can also be impacted by changes in species composition, variations in interspecific variation, and changes in leaf chlorophyll concentrations. We removed the dominant two species from the basal area weighting for each plots but found no significant change, a directional change of interspecific variation could change albedo by 0.01 in the NIR, and changes in chlorophyll could decrease visible albedo by 0.005. We then simulated changes in tropical leaf albedo with a climate model and show that such changes could act as a small negative feedback on climate, but most likely will not have a large impact on future climate.

Projected Impacts of 21st Century Climate Change on Potential Habitat for Vegetation and Forest Types in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, A. J.; Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Cantin, A.; Conard, S. G.

2015-12-01

Global GCMs have demonstrated profound potential for projections to affect the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems and individual species at all hierarchical levels. We modeled progression of potential Russian ecotones and forest-forming species as the climate changes. Large-scale bioclimatic models were developed to predict Russian zonal vegetation (RuBCliM) and forest types (ForCliM) from three bioclimatic indices (1) growing degree-days above 5 degrees C; (2) negative degree-days below 0 C ; and (3) an annual moisture index (ratio of growing degree days to annual precipitation). The presence or absence of continuous permafrost was explicitly included in the models as limiting the forests and tree species distribution. All simulations to predict vegetation change across Russia were run by coupling our bioclimatic models with bioclimatic indices and the permafrost distribution for the baseline period and for the future 2020, 2050 and 2100 simulated by 3 GCMs (CGCM3.1, HadCM3 and IPSLCM4) and 3 climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). Under these climate scenarios, it is projected the zonobiomes will shift far northward to reach equilibrium with the change in climate. Under the warmer and drier projected future climate, about half of Russia would be suitable for the forest-steppe ecotone and grasslands, rather than for forests. Water stress tolerant light-needled taiga would have an increased advantage over water-loving dark-needled taiga. Permafrost-tolerant L. dahurica taiga would remain the dominant forest across permafrost. Increases in severe fire weather would lead to increases in large, high-severity fires, especially at boundaries between forest ecotones, which can be expected to facilitate a more rapid progression of vegetation towards a new equilibrium with the climate. Adaptation to climate change may be facilitated by: assisting migration of forests by seed transfers to establish genotypes that may be more ecologically suited as climate changes

Interactions of Vegetation and Climate: Remote Observations, Earth System Models, and the Amazon Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quetin, Gregory R.

The natural composition of terrestrial ecosystems can be shaped by climate to take advantage of local environmental conditions. Ecosystem functioning, e.g. interaction between photosynthesis and temperature, can also acclimate to different climatological states. The combination of these two factors thus determines ecological-climate interactions. The ecosystem functioning also plays a key role in predicting the carbon cycle, hydrological cycle, terrestrial surface energy balance, and the feedbacks in the climate system. Predicting the response of the Earth's biosphere to global warming requires the ability to mechanistically represent the processes controlling ecosystem functioning through photosynthesis, respiration, and water use. The physical environment in a place shapes the vegetation there, but vegetation also has the potential to shape the environment, e.g. increased photosynthesis and transpiration moisten the atmosphere. These two-way ecoclimate interactions create the potential for feedbacks between vegetation at the physical environment that depend on the vegetation and the climate of a place, and can change throughout the year. In Chapter 1, we derive a global empirical map of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate using the response of satellite-observed greenness to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation. We infer mechanisms constraining ecosystem functioning by analyzing how the sensitivity of vegetation to climate varies across climate space. Our analysis yields empirical evidence for multiple physical and biological mediators of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate at large spatial scales. In hot and wet locations, vegetation is greener in warmer years despite temperatures likely exceeding thermally optimum conditions. However, sunlight generally increases during warmer years, suggesting that the increased stress from higher atmospheric water demand is offset by higher rates of photosynthesis. The sensitivity of vegetation

Studies of Climate Change in the Yukon River Basin: Connecting Community and Science Through a Unique Partnership

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schuster, Paul F.; Maracle, Karonhiakta'tie Byran

2010-01-01

An exciting new partnership between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council (YRITWC) is yielding critical data for the assessment of climate change effects in the Yukon River Basin. The foundation of this partnership is a shared interest in the current and future water quality of the Yukon River and its relation to climate. The USGS began a landmark study of the Yukon River and its major tributaries in 2000. A key objective of this study is to establish a baseline dataset of water quality, which will serve as an important frame of reference to assess future changes in the basin that may result from a warmer climate.

Climate change and early human land-use in a biodiversity hotspot, the Afromontane region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivory, S.; Russell, J. M.; Sax, D. F.; Early, R.

2015-12-01

African ecosystems are at great risk due to climate and land-use change. Paleo-records illustrate that changes in precipitation and temperature have led to dramatic alterations of African vegetation distribution over the Quaternary; however, despite the fact that the link between mankind and the environment has a longer history in the African tropics than anywhere else on earth, very little is known about pre-colonial land-use. Disentangling the influence of each is particularly critical in areas of exceptional biodiversity and endemism, such as the Afromontane forest region. This region is generally considered to be highly sensitive to temperature and thus at risk to future climate change. However, new evidence suggests that some high elevation species may have occupied warmer areas in the past and thus are not strongly limited by temperature and may be at greater risk from intensifying land-use. First, we use species distribution models constructed from modern and paleo-distributions of high elevation forests in order to evaluate differences in the climatic space occupied today compared to the past. We find that although modern Afromontane species ranges occupy very narrow climate conditions, and in particular that most species occur only in cold areas, in the past most species have tolerated warmer conditions. This suggests that many montane tree species are not currently limited by warm temperatures, and that the region has already seen significant reduction in the climate space occupied, possibly from Holocene land-use. Second, to evaluate human impacts on montane populations, we examine paleoecological records from lakes throughout sub-Saharan Africa that capture ecological processes at difference time scales to reconstruct Afromontane forest range changes. Over long time scales, we observe phases of forest expansion in the lowlands associated with climate variability alone where composition varies little from phase to phase but include both modern low and

Climate mediates the effects of disturbance on ant assemblage structure.

PubMed

Gibb, Heloise; Sanders, Nathan J; Dunn, Robert R; Watson, Simon; Photakis, Manoli; Abril, Silvia; Andersen, Alan N; Angulo, Elena; Armbrecht, Inge; Arnan, Xavier; Baccaro, Fabricio B; Bishop, Tom R; Boulay, Raphael; Castracani, Cristina; Del Toro, Israel; Delsinne, Thibaut; Diaz, Mireia; Donoso, David A; Enríquez, Martha L; Fayle, Tom M; Feener, Donald H; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Gómez, Crisanto; Grasso, Donato A; Groc, Sarah; Heterick, Brian; Hoffmann, Benjamin D; Lach, Lori; Lattke, John; Leponce, Maurice; Lessard, Jean-Philippe; Longino, John; Lucky, Andrea; Majer, Jonathan; Menke, Sean B; Mezger, Dirk; Mori, Alessandra; Munyai, Thinandavha C; Paknia, Omid; Pearce-Duvet, Jessica; Pfeiffer, Martin; Philpott, Stacy M; de Souza, Jorge L P; Tista, Melanie; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Vonshak, Merav; Parr, Catherine L

2015-06-07

Many studies have focused on the impacts of climate change on biological assemblages, yet little is known about how climate interacts with other major anthropogenic influences on biodiversity, such as habitat disturbance. Using a unique global database of 1128 local ant assemblages, we examined whether climate mediates the effects of habitat disturbance on assemblage structure at a global scale. Species richness and evenness were associated positively with temperature, and negatively with disturbance. However, the interaction among temperature, precipitation and disturbance shaped species richness and evenness. The effect was manifested through a failure of species richness to increase substantially with temperature in transformed habitats at low precipitation. At low precipitation levels, evenness increased with temperature in undisturbed sites, peaked at medium temperatures in disturbed sites and remained low in transformed sites. In warmer climates with lower rainfall, the effects of increasing disturbance on species richness and evenness were akin to decreases in temperature of up to 9°C. Anthropogenic disturbance and ongoing climate change may interact in complicated ways to shape the structure of assemblages, with hot, arid environments likely to be at greatest risk. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Climate mediates the effects of disturbance on ant assemblage structure

PubMed Central

Gibb, Heloise; Sanders, Nathan J.; Dunn, Robert R.; Watson, Simon; Photakis, Manoli; Abril, Silvia; Andersen, Alan N.; Angulo, Elena; Armbrecht, Inge; Arnan, Xavier; Baccaro, Fabricio B.; Bishop, Tom R.; Boulay, Raphael; Castracani, Cristina; Del Toro, Israel; Delsinne, Thibaut; Diaz, Mireia; Donoso, David A.; Enríquez, Martha L.; Fayle, Tom M.; Feener, Donald H.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Gómez, Crisanto; Grasso, Donato A.; Groc, Sarah; Heterick, Brian; Hoffmann, Benjamin D.; Lach, Lori; Lattke, John; Leponce, Maurice; Lessard, Jean-Philippe; Longino, John; Lucky, Andrea; Majer, Jonathan; Menke, Sean B.; Mezger, Dirk; Mori, Alessandra; Munyai, Thinandavha C.; Paknia, Omid; Pearce-Duvet, Jessica; Pfeiffer, Martin; Philpott, Stacy M.; de Souza, Jorge L. P.; Tista, Melanie; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L.; Vonshak, Merav; Parr, Catherine L.

2015-01-01

Many studies have focused on the impacts of climate change on biological assemblages, yet little is known about how climate interacts with other major anthropogenic influences on biodiversity, such as habitat disturbance. Using a unique global database of 1128 local ant assemblages, we examined whether climate mediates the effects of habitat disturbance on assemblage structure at a global scale. Species richness and evenness were associated positively with temperature, and negatively with disturbance. However, the interaction among temperature, precipitation and disturbance shaped species richness and evenness. The effect was manifested through a failure of species richness to increase substantially with temperature in transformed habitats at low precipitation. At low precipitation levels, evenness increased with temperature in undisturbed sites, peaked at medium temperatures in disturbed sites and remained low in transformed sites. In warmer climates with lower rainfall, the effects of increasing disturbance on species richness and evenness were akin to decreases in temperature of up to 9°C. Anthropogenic disturbance and ongoing climate change may interact in complicated ways to shape the structure of assemblages, with hot, arid environments likely to be at greatest risk. PMID:25994675

Responses of stream nitrate and DOC loadings to hydrological forcing and climate change in an upland forest of the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sebestyen, S.D.; Boyer, E.W.; Shanley, J.B.

2009-01-01

In coming decades, higher annual temperatures, increased growing season length, and increased dormant season precipitation are expected across the northeastern United States in response to anthropogenic forcing of global climate. We synthesized long-term stream hydrochemical data from the Sleepers River Research Watershed in Vermont, United States, to explore the relationship of catchment wetness to stream nitrate and DOC loadings. We modeled changes in growing season length and precipitation patterns to simulate future climate scenarios and to assess how stream nutrient loadings respond to climate change. Model results for the 2070-2099 time period suggest that stream nutrient loadings during both the dormant and growing seasons will respond to climate change. During a warmer climate, growing season stream fluxes (runoff+20%, nitrate +57%, and DOC +58%) increase as more precipitation (+28%) and quick flow (+39%) occur during a longer growing season (+43 days). During the dormant season, stream water and nutrient loadings decrease. Net annual stream runoff (+8%) and DOC loading (+9%) increases are commensurate with the magnitude of the average increase of net annual precipitation (+7%). Net annual stream water and DOC loadings are primarily affected by increased dormant season precipitation. In contrast, decreased annual loading of stream nitrate (-2%) reflects a larger effect of growing season controls on stream nitrate and the effects of lengthened growing seasons in a warmer climate. Our findings suggest that leaching of nitrate and DOC from catchment soils will be affected by anthropogenic climate forcing, thereby affecting the timing and magnitude of annual stream loadings in the northeastern United States. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Examining the temporal relationship between psychological climate, work attitude, and staff turnover.

PubMed

Garner, Bryan R; Hunter, Brooke D

2013-02-01

Relative to the broader industrial-organizational (I-O) psychology field, research on the turnover of substance use disorder (SUD) treatment staff is in its infancy. Despite its long and rich history, recent reviews of the turnover literature within I-O psychology have noted that there remains considerable room for improvement. In particular, recommendations have been made for research that considers time in the turnover process and explores more distal causes of staff turnover. Addressing these gaps, this article examined the temporal relationship between latent measures of psychological climate, work attitude, and staff turnover. Using data from 95 SUD treatment staff clustered within 29 treatment organizations, multilevel discrete-time survival analyses revealed that a latent measure of work attitude (e.g., job satisfaction, pay satisfaction, turnover intentions) fully mediated the temporal relationship between latent measures of psychological climate (e.g., supervisor support, coworker support, role conflict) and subsequent staff turnover. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Enhanced poleward propagation of storms under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamarin-Brodsky, Talia; Kaspi, Yohai

2017-12-01

Earth's midlatitudes are dominated by regions of large atmospheric weather variability—often referred to as storm tracks— which influence the distribution of temperature, precipitation and wind in the extratropics. Comprehensive climate models forced by increased greenhouse gas emissions suggest that under global warming the storm tracks shift poleward. While the poleward shift is a robust response across most models, there is currently no consensus on what the underlying dynamical mechanism is. Here we present a new perspective on the poleward shift, which is based on a Lagrangian view of the storm tracks. We show that in addition to a poleward shift in the genesis latitude of the storms, associated with the shift in baroclinicity, the latitudinal displacement of cyclonic storms increases under global warming. This is achieved by applying a storm-tracking algorithm to an ensemble of CMIP5 models. The increased latitudinal propagation in a warmer climate is shown to be a result of stronger upper-level winds and increased atmospheric water vapour. These changes in the propagation characteristics of the storms can have a significant impact on midlatitude climate.

Climate Variability and Impact at NASA's Marshal Space Flight Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smoot, James L.; Jedlovec, Gary; Williams, Brett

2013-01-01

Climate analysis for the Southeast U. S. has indicated that inland regions have experienced an average temperature increase of 2F since 1970. This trend is generally characterized by warmer winters with an indication of increased precipitation in the Fall season. Extended periods of limited rainfall in the Spring and Summer periods have had greater areal coverage and, at other times the number of precipitation events has been increasing. Climate model projections for the next 10-70 years indicate warmer temperatures for the Southeast U.S., particularly in the Spring and Summer, with some indication of more extremes in temperature and precipitation as shown in the table below. The realization of these types of regional climate changes in the form of extended heat waves and droughts and their subsequent stress on facilities, infrastructure, and workforce could have substantial impact on the activities and functions of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama. This presentation will present the results of an examination of the 100 year temperature and precipitation record for MSFC. Local warming has cause an increase in daily maximum and minimum temperatures by nearly 3F, with a substantial increase in the number of maximum temperatures exceeding 90F and a decrease in the number of days with minimum temperatures below freezing. These trends have substantial impact of the number of heating / cooling degree days for the area. Yearly precipitation totals are inversely correlated with the change in mean temperature and the frequency of heavy rain events has remain consistent with the changes in yearly totals. An extended heat wave index was developed which shows an increase in frequency of heat waves over the last 35 years and a subsequent reduction in precipitation during the heat waves. This trend will contribute to more intense drought conditions over the northern Alabama region, increasing the potential of destructive wildfires in and around

Climate, phylogeny and the ecological distribution of C4 grasses.

PubMed

Edwards, Erika J; Still, Christopher J

2008-03-01

'C4 photosynthesis' refers to a suite of traits that increase photosynthesis in high light and high temperature environments. Most C4 plants are grasses, which dominate tropical and subtropical grasslands and savannas but are conspicuously absent from cold growing season climates. Physiological attributes of C4 photosynthesis have been invoked to explain C4 grass biogeography; however, the pathway evolved exclusively in grass lineages of tropical origin, suggesting that the prevalence of C4 grasses in warm climates could be due to other traits inherited from their non-C4 ancestors. Here we investigate the relative influences of phylogeny and photosynthetic pathway in determining the ecological distributions of C4 grasses in Hawaii. We find that the restriction of C4 grasses to warmer areas is due largely to their evolutionary history as members of a warm-climate grass clade, but that the pathway does appear to confer a competitive advantage to grasses in more arid environments.

Critical evaluation of climate syntheses to benchmark CMIP6/PMIP4 127 ka Last Interglacial simulations in the high-latitude regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capron, E.; Govin, A.; Feng, R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Wolff, E. W.

2017-07-01

The Last Interglacial (LIG, ∼129-116 thousand years ago, ka) represents an excellent case study to investigate the response of sensitive components of the Earth System and mechanisms of high-latitude amplification to a climate warmer than present-day. The Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 4, hereafter referred as PMIP4) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6, hereafter referred as CMIP6) are coordinating the design of (1) a LIG Tier 1 equilibrium simulation to simulate the climate response at 127 ka, a time interval associated with a strong orbital forcing and greenhouse gas concentrations close to preindustrial levels and (2) associated Tier 2 sensitivity experiments to examine the role of the ocean, vegetation and dust feedbacks in modulating the response to this orbital forcing. Evaluating the capability of the CMIP6/PMIP4 models to reproduce the 127 ka polar and sub-polar climate will require appropriate data-based benchmarks which are currently missing. Based on a recent data synthesis that offers the first spatio-temporal representation of high-latitude (i.e. poleward of 40°N and 40°S) surface temperature evolution during the LIG, we produce a new 126-128 ka time slab, hereafter named 127 ka time slice. This 127 ka time slice represents surface temperature anomalies relative to preindustrial and is associated with quantitative estimates of the uncertainties related to relative dating and surface temperature reconstruction methods. It illustrates warmer-than-preindustrial conditions in the high-latitude regions of both hemispheres. In particular, summer sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic region were on average 1.1 °C (with a standard error of the mean of 0.7 °C) warmer relative to preindustrial and 1.8 °C (with a standard error of the mean of 0.8 °C) in the Southern Ocean. In Antarctica, average 127 ka annual surface air temperature was 2.2 °C (with a standard error of the mean of 1.4 °C) warmer

Will phenotypic plasticity affecting flowering phenology keep pace with climate change?

PubMed

Richardson, Bryce A; Chaney, Lindsay; Shaw, Nancy L; Still, Shannon M

2017-06-01

Rising temperatures have begun to shift flowering time, but it is unclear whether phenotypic plasticity can accommodate projected temperature change for this century. Evaluating clines in phenological traits and the extent and variation in plasticity can provide key information on assessing risk of maladaptation and developing strategies to mitigate climate change. In this study, flower phenology was examined in 52 populations of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) growing in three common gardens. Flowering date (anthesis) varied 91 days from late July to late November among gardens. Mixed-effects modeling explained 79% of variation in flowering date, of which 46% could be assigned to plasticity and genetic variation in plasticity and 33% to genetics (conditional R 2  = 0.79, marginal R 2  = 0.33). Two environmental variables that explained the genetic variation were photoperiod and the onset of spring, the Julian date of accumulating degree-days >5 °C reaching 100. The genetic variation was mapped for contemporary and future climates (decades 2060 and 2090), showing flower date change varies considerably across the landscape. Plasticity was estimated to accommodate, on average, a ±13-day change in flowering date. However, the examination of genetic variation in plasticity suggests that the magnitude of plasticity could be affected by variation in the sensitivity to photoperiod and temperature. In a warmer common garden, lower-latitude populations have greater plasticity (+16 days) compared to higher-latitude populations (+10 days). Mapped climatypes of flowering date for contemporary and future climates illustrate the wide breadth of plasticity and large geographic overlap. Our research highlights the importance of integrating information on genetic variation, phenotypic plasticity and climatic niche modeling to evaluate plant responses and elucidate vulnerabilities to climate change. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the

NorTropical Warm Pool variability and its effects on the climate of Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricaurte Villota, Constanza; Romero-Rodriguez, Deisy; Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo

2015-04-01

Much has been said about the effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on oceanographic and climatic conditions in Colombia, but little is known about the influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP), which includes the gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean and the western tropical North Atlantic. The AWP has been identified by some authors as an area that influences the Earth's climate, associated with anomalous summer rainfall and hurricane activity in the Atlantic. The aim of this study was to understand the variation in the AWP and its effects on the climate of Colombia. An annual average of sea surface temperature (SST) was obtained from the composition of monthly images of the Spectroradiometer Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), with resolution of 4 km, for one area that comprises the marine territory of Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica both the Pacific and the Caribbean, and parts of the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua, for the period between 2007 and 2013. The results suggest that warm pool is not restricted to the Caribbean, but it also covers a strip Pacific bordering Central America and the northern part of the Colombian coast, so it should be called the Nor-Tropical Warm pool (NTWP). Within the NTWP higher SST correspond to a marine area extending about 1 degree north and south of Central and out of the Colombian Caribbean coast. The NTWP also showed large interannual variability, with the years 2008 and 2009 with lower SST in average, while 2010, 2011 and 2013 years with warmer conditions, matching with greater precipitation. It was also noted that during warmer conditions (high amplitude NTWP) the cold tongue from the south Pacific has less penetration on Colombian coast. Finally, the results suggest a strong influence of NTWP in climatic conditions in Colombia.

Experiment, monitoring, and gradient methods used to infer climate change effects on plant communities yield consistent patterns.

PubMed

Elmendorf, Sarah C; Henry, Gregory H R; Hollister, Robert D; Fosaa, Anna Maria; Gould, William A; Hermanutz, Luise; Hofgaard, Annika; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg S; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg I; Jorgenson, Janet C; Lévesque, Esther; Magnusson, Borgþór; Molau, Ulf; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Oberbauer, Steven F; Rixen, Christian; Tweedie, Craig E; Walker, Marilyn D; Walker, Marilyn

2015-01-13

Inference about future climate change impacts typically relies on one of three approaches: manipulative experiments, historical comparisons (broadly defined to include monitoring the response to ambient climate fluctuations using repeat sampling of plots, dendroecology, and paleoecology techniques), and space-for-time substitutions derived from sampling along environmental gradients. Potential limitations of all three approaches are recognized. Here we address the congruence among these three main approaches by comparing the degree to which tundra plant community composition changes (i) in response to in situ experimental warming, (ii) with interannual variability in summer temperature within sites, and (iii) over spatial gradients in summer temperature. We analyzed changes in plant community composition from repeat sampling (85 plant communities in 28 regions) and experimental warming studies (28 experiments in 14 regions) throughout arctic and alpine North America and Europe. Increases in the relative abundance of species with a warmer thermal niche were observed in response to warmer summer temperatures using all three methods; however, effect sizes were greater over broad-scale spatial gradients relative to either temporal variability in summer temperature within a site or summer temperature increases induced by experimental warming. The effect sizes for change over time within a site and with experimental warming were nearly identical. These results support the view that inferences based on space-for-time substitution overestimate the magnitude of responses to contemporary climate warming, because spatial gradients reflect long-term processes. In contrast, in situ experimental warming and monitoring approaches yield consistent estimates of the magnitude of response of plant communities to climate warming.

How soil water storage moderates climate changes effects on transpiration, across the different climates of the Critical Zone Observatories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heckman, C.; Tague, C.

2017-12-01

While the demand side of transpiration is predicted to increase under a warmer climate, actual evapotranspiration (AET) will be moderated by the supply of water available to vegetation. A key question to ask is how will plant accessible water storage capacity (PAWSC) affect the partitioning of precipitation between AET and runoff. Our results indicate that whether AET increases or decreases, and how much, is significantly based upon interactions between PAWSC and characteristics of precipitation such as the amount, frequency, and skew as well the partitioning between rain and snow. In snow dominated climates, if PAWSC cannot make up for the loss of storage as snowpack then AET could decrease, and in rain dominated climates, PAWSC could significantly limit the increase in AET. These results highlight the importance of critical zone research: constraining PAWSC is critical in predicting not only the magnitude but also the direction of the change in AET with climate warming. Due to the highly heterogeneous nature of PAWSC and the difficulty of measuring it across large scales, we use a well-tested hydrologic model to estimate the impacts from a range of PAWSC on the partitioning of precipitation between runoff and AET. We completed this analysis for the range of precipitation and vegetation characteristics found across 9 of the Critical Zone Observatories.

Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5 °C warmer world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosking, J. Scott; MacLeod, D.; Phillips, T.; Holmes, C. R.; Watson, P.; Shuckburgh, E. F.; Mitchell, D.

2018-05-01

Global climate model simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project were used to assess how wind power generation over Europe would change in a future world where global temperatures reach 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Comparing recent historical (2006–2015) and future 1.5 °C forcing experiments highlights that the climate models demonstrate a northward shift in the Atlantic jet, leading to a significant (p < 0.01) increase in surface winds over the UK and Northern Europe and a significant (p < 0.05) reduction over Southern Europe. We use a wind turbine power model to transform daily near-surface (10 m) wind speeds into daily wind power output, accounting for sub-daily variability, the height of the turbine, and power losses due to transmission and distribution of electricity. To reduce regional model biases we use bias-corrected 10 m wind speeds. We see an increase in power generation potential over much of Europe, with the greatest increase in load factor over the UK of around four percentage points. Increases in variability are seen over much of central and northern Europe with the largest seasonal change in summer. Focusing on the UK, we find that wind energy production during spring and autumn under 1.5 °C forcing would become as productive as it is currently during the peak winter season. Similarly, summer winds would increase driving up wind generation to resemble levels currently seen in spring and autumn. We conclude that the potential for wind energy in Northern Europe may be greater than has been previously assumed, with likely increases even in a 1.5 °C warmer world. While there is the potential for Southern Europe to see a reduction in their wind resource, these decreases are likely to be negligible.

Global climate change increases risk of crop yield losses and food insecurity in the tropical Andes.

PubMed

Tito, Richard; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Feeley, Kenneth J

2018-02-01

One of the greatest current challenges to human society is ensuring adequate food production and security for a rapidly growing population under changing climatic conditions. Climate change, and specifically rising temperatures, will alter the suitability of areas for specific crops and cultivation systems. In order to maintain yields, farmers may be forced to change cultivation practices, the timing of cultivation, or even the type of crops grown. Alternatively, farmers can change the location where crops are cultivated (e.g., to higher elevations) to track suitable climates (in which case the plants will have to grow in different soils), as cultivated plants will otherwise have to tolerate warmer temperatures and possibly face novel enemies. We simulated these two last possible scenarios (for temperature increases of 1.3°C and 2.6°C) in the Peruvian Andes through a field experiment in which several traditionally grown varieties of potato and maize were planted at different elevations (and thus temperatures) using either the local soil or soil translocated from higher elevations. Maize production declined by 21%-29% in response to new soil conditions. The production of maize and potatoes declined by >87% when plants were grown under warmer temperatures, mainly as a result of the greater incidence of novel pests. Crop quality and value also declined under simulated migration and warming scenarios. We estimated that local farmers may experience severe economic losses of up to 2,300 US$ ha -1  yr -1 . These findings reveal that climate change is a real and imminent threat to agriculture and that there is a pressing need to develop effective management strategies to reduce yield losses and prevent food insecurity. Importantly, such strategies should take into account the influences of non-climatic and/or biotic factors (e.g., novel pests) on plant development. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Responses of Hail and Storm Days to Climate Change in the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Tian; Zhang, Qinghong; Li, Wenhong; Li, Jihong

2018-05-01

There is increasing concern that local severe storm occurrence may be changing as a result of climate change. The Tibetan Plateau (TP), one of the world's most sensitive areas to climate change, became significantly warmer during recent decades. Since 1960 (1980), storm (hail) days have been decreasing by 6.2%/decade (18.3%/decade) in the region. However, what caused the frequency changes of storm and hail in the TP is largely unknown. Based on 53-year continuous weather records at 48 TP stations and reanalysis data, we show here for the first time that the consistent decline of storm days is strongly related to a drier midtroposphere since 1960. Further analysis demonstrated that fewer hail days are driven by an elevation of the melting level (thermodynamically) and a weaker wind shear (dynamically) in a warming climate. These results imply that less storm and hail may occur over TP when climate warms.

Hydrogeologic influence on changes in snowmelt runoff with climate warming: Numerical experiments on a mid-elevation catchment in the Sierra Nevada, USA

Treesearch

S.M. Jepsen; T.C. Harmon; M.W. Meadows; C.T. Hunsaker

2016-01-01

The role of hydrogeology in mediating long-term changes in mountain streamflow, resulting from reduced snowfall in a potentially warmer climate, is currently not well understood. We explore this by simulating changes in stream discharge and evapotranspiration from a mid-elevation, 1-km2 catchment in the southern Sierra Nevada of California (USA)...

Addressing Microaggressions to Facilitate High-Performing Work Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown Clarke, J.

2016-12-01

Microaggressions can be described as verbal, behavioral or environmental insults, whether intentional or unintentional, that communicates hostile, derogatory, or negative messages toward individuals based on one's race, ethnicity, gender, sexuality, intersectionality, thisABILITIES, language, socioeconomic and/or citizenship status. This interactive workshop will engage participants to examine and identifying microaggressions, then work collaboratively to develop strategies and tools to confront and remove them from the environment. At the end of this session, participants will be more aware of their own personal biases and stereotypes, and the influence it can have on the organizational climate: Learn how to detect microaggressions Learn how to react to microaggressions Learn how to sustain a microaggression-free environment

High Performance Work System, HRD Climate and Organisational Performance: An Empirical Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muduli, Ashutosh

2015-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to study the relationship between high-performance work system (HPWS) and organizational performance and to examine the role of human resource development (HRD) Climate in mediating the relationship between HPWS and the organizational performance in the context of the power sector of India. Design/methodology/approach: The…

Deglacial climate variability in central Florida, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Willard, D.A.; Bernhardt, C.E.; Brooks, G.R.; Cronin, T. M.; Edgar, T.; Larson, R.

2007-01-01

Pollen and ostracode evidence from lacustrine sediments underlying modern Tampa Bay, Florida, document frequent and abrupt climatic and hydrological events superimposed on deglacial warming in the subtropics. Radiocarbon chronology on well-preserved mollusk shells and pollen residue from core MD02-2579 documents continuous sedimentation in a variety of non-marine habitats in a karst-controlled basin from 20 ka to 11.5 ka. During the last glacial maximum (LGM), much drier and cooler-than-modern conditions are indicated by pollen assemblages enriched in Chenopodiaceae and Carya, with rare Pinus (Pinus pollen increased to 20–40% during the warming of the initial deglaciation (∼ 17.2 ka), reaching near modern abundance (60–80%) during warmer, moister climates of the Bølling/Allerød interval (14.7–12.9 ka). Within the Bølling/Allerød, centennial-scale dry events corresponding to the Older Dryas and Intra-Allerød Cold Period indicate rapid vegetation response (

Southern Ocean Climate and Sea Ice Anomalies Associated with the Southern Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwok, R.; Comiso, J. C.

2001-01-01

The anomalies in the climate and sea ice cover of the Southern Ocean and their relationships with the Southern Oscillation (SO) are investigated using a 17-year of data set from 1982 through 1998. We correlate the polar climate anomalies with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and examine the composites of these anomalies under the positive (SOI > 0), neutral (0 > SOI > -1), and negative (SOI < -1) phases of SOL The climate data set consists of sea-level pressure, wind, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature fields, while the sea ice data set describes its extent, concentration, motion, and surface temperature. The analysis depicts, for the first time, the spatial variability in the relationship of the above variables and the SOL The strongest correlation between the SOI and the polar climate anomalies are found in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen and Ross sea sectors. The composite fields reveal anomalies that are organized in distinct large-scale spatial patterns with opposing polarities at the two extremes of SOI, and suggest oscillating climate anomalies that are closely linked to the SO. Within these sectors, positive (negative) phases of the SOI are generally associated with lower (higher) sea-level pressure, cooler (warmer) surface air temperature, and cooler (warmer) sea surface temperature in these sectors. Associations between these climate anomalies and the behavior of the Antarctic sea ice cover are clearly evident. Recent anomalies in the sea ice cover that are apparently associated with the SOI include: the record decrease in the sea ice extent in the Bellingshausen Sea from mid- 1988 through early 199 1; the relationship between Ross Sea SST and ENSO signal, and reduced sea ice concentration in the Ross Sea; and, the shortening of the ice season in the eastern Ross Sea, Amundsen Sea, far western Weddell Sea, and the lengthening of the ice season in the western Ross Sea, Bellingshausen Sea and central Weddell Sea gyre over the period 1988

Climate Change Implications to Vegetation Production in Alaska

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neigh, Christopher S.R.

2008-01-01

Investigation of long-term meteorological satellite data revealed statistically significant vegetation response to climate drivers of temperature, precipitation and solar radiation with exclusion of fire disturbance in Alaska. Abiotic trends were correlated to satellite remote sensing observations of normalized difference vegetation index to understand biophysical processes that could impact ecosystem carbon storage. Warming resulted in disparate trajectories for vegetation growth due to precipitation and photosynthetically active radiation variation. Interior spruce forest low lands in late summer through winter had precipitation deficit which resulted in extensive fire disturbance and browning of undisturbed vegetation with reduced post-fire recovery while Northern slope moist alpine tundra had increased production due to warmer-wetter conditions during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Coupled investigation of Alaska s vegetation response to warming climate found spatially dynamic abiotic processes with vegetation browning not a result from increased fire disturbance.